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首页文档碳中和资料研究报告锂离子电池路线图—2030年产业化前景（英文版）--Fraunhofer ISI

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Lithium-Ion Battery Roadmap –
Industrialization Perspectives
Toward 2030
December 2023
2
Lithium-Ion Battery Roadmap –
Industrialization Perspectives
Toward 2030
Contents
Executive Summary � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �2
Zusammenfassung � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 5
1� Introduction � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 8
1�1� Introduction and Motivation� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �9
1�2� Methodology � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 11
1�3� LIB Patent Analysis� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 13
2� Applications and Requirements � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 15
2�1� Technical Requirements � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 16
2�2� Volume Requirements � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 20
2�3� Ecological, Economic and other Requirements � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 22
3� Industry and Technology Roadmaps� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 26
3�1� Battery Materials � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 29
3.1.1. Cathode Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.1.2. Cathode Material Production Capacities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.1.3. Anode Material . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
3.1.4. Anode Material Production Capacities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.1.5. Other Cell Components. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.1.6. Cell Production Capacities by Chemistry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3�2� Battery Cells � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 45
3.2.1. Battery Cell Design Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.2.2. Battery Production Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.2.3. Cell Production Capacities by Location and Origin of Manufacturer . . . . . . . . . . . 53
3.2.4. Cell Production Capacities by Format. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
3.2.5. Plausibility of Production Implementation and Industry Structure. . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
3�3� Battery Packs and System � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 59
3�4� Battery Recycling � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 65
4� Implementation Outlook � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 67
4�1� Technology Roadmaps� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 68
4.1.1. Performance-Optimized. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
4.1.2. Cost-Optimized . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
4.1.3. Ecologically-Optimized . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
4�2� Battery Demand and Production� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 73
4.2.1. Battery Markets and Demand Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
4.2.2. Battery Material and Cell Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
4�3� A European Battery�� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 77
List of Abbreviations � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 80
References� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �82
Acknowledgements � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 101
Imprint � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �102
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Lithium-IonBatteryRoadmap–IndustrializationPerspectivesToward2030December2023Lithium-IonBatteryRoadmap–IndustrializationPerspectivesToward20302ContentsContentsExecutiveSummary����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������2Zusammenfassung����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������51.Introduction��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������81.1.IntroductionandMotivation������������������������������������������������������������������������������91.2.Methodology��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������111.3.LIBPatentAnalysis������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������132.ApplicationsandRequirements����������������������������������������������������������������������������������152.1.TechnicalRequirements����������������������������������������������������������������������������������162.2.VolumeRequirements��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������202.3.Ecological,EconomicandotherRequirements����������������������������������������������223.IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps.�������������������������������������������������������������������������263.1.BatteryMaterials����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������293.1.1.CathodeMaterials����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������293.1.2.CathodeMaterialProductionCapacities��������������������������������������������������������������353.1.3.AnodeMaterial��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������373.1.4.AnodeMaterialProductionCapacities����������������������������������������������������������������393.1.5.OtherCellComponents��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������413.1.6.CellProductionCapacitiesbyChemistry��������������������������������������������������������������433.2.BatteryCells������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������453.2.1.BatteryCellDesignTrends����������������������������������������������������������������������������������453.2.2.BatteryProductionTrends������������������������������������������������������������������������������������493.2.3.CellProductionCapacitiesbyLocationandOriginofManufacturer��������������������533.2.4.CellProductionCapacitiesbyFormat������������������������������������������������������������������553.2.5.PlausibilityofProductionImplementationandIndustryStructure������������������������573.3.BatteryPacksandSystem��������������������������������������������������������������������������������593.4.BatteryRecycling����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������654.ImplementationOutlook��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������674.1.TechnologyRoadmaps������������������������������������������������������������������������������������684.1.1.Performance-Optimized��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������684.1.2.Cost-Optimized��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������694.1.3.Ecologically-Optimized����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������714.2.BatteryDemandandProduction.������������������������������������������������������������������734.2.1.BatteryMarketsandDemandForecast����������������������������������������������������������������734.2.2.BatteryMaterialandCellProduction������������������������������������������������������������������744.3.AEuropeanBattery.����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������77ListofAbbreviations����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������80References����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������82Acknowledgements��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������101Imprint��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������102ExecutiveSummaryExecutiveSummary2ExecutiveSummaryExecutiveSummaryThemarketforlithium-ionbatteries(LIB)continuestoexpand,moreimportantdevelopmentgoalofreducingbatterycosts.acrossbordersanddespitecrises.In2023,salescouldexceedThecosttargetatthebatterypacklevelisstillwellbelowthe1TWhmarkforthefirsttime.By2030,demandisexpec-100EUR/kWh.Comparedtotoday'scosts,thiscouldmeanatedtomorethantripletoover3TWh.Thehighgrowthratesreductionof30to50%.Theindustryaimstoachievethisbyofrecentyearsaresettocontinue.usingbothcobalt-freeandnickel-freematerials,standardizingcellsandintegratingthemdirectlyintothebatterypack.NewThetransitionfromgigawatthourstoterawatthoursinmanufacturingprocessescouldalsocontributetoreducingdemandandproductionhasmanyimplicationsfortheindus-costs,bothbyleveragingenergyandequipmentcostsandbytry,butalsofortechnologydevelopmentandtherequirementsstandardizingthefactoryitself.Costsalsoshowthattechnolo-forbatteries.Forexample,recentregulatoryrequirementsgiesarenotnecessarilylocation-neutral.Achievingthelowestmandatebatterysustainability.ThemassuseofLIBsinelectricbatterycostcouldbelinkedtositingfactoriesatthemostvehicleshaspushedtheissueofbatterypricetotheforeadvantageousproductionlocation.andmoretechnicalfactorssuchasenergydensityandrangeintothebackground,atleastinthesmallervehicleandmassVerysimilarconsiderationsapplytotheproductionofsustai-segments.Asthemarketcontinuestogrow,questionsofnablebatteriesasrequiredbytheEUBatteryDirective,amongproductionlocalizationandtheshareofvaluecreationthatothers,butalsobyanincreasingnumberofcarmanufacturers.stakeholdersandnationswillhaveinthefuturewillbecomeSpecifically,sustainabilitycanaffectmanyfactors,fromrawmoreimportant.materialextractiontoproductionandusescenarios.Inthecomingyears,industrialdevelopmentsarelikelytofocusonThisstudy"Lithium-IonBatteryRoadmap-Industrializationcelltechnologiesandproductiontechnologies,someofwhichPerspectivesToward2030"attemptstotakeintoaccounttheevencombinesustainability,e.g.,alowCO2footprintwithlowstatusofLIBasanestablishedtechnologybyfocusingonthecost.Theseincludeiron-andmanganese-basedcathodes,scalingactivitiesoftheindustry,whilestillconsiderungthewater-basedordryelectrodeprocessing,andusingrecyclingnumeroustechnologicalchallengesthatrangefrommaterialstorecovermaterialsattheendofthebattery'slife.Theloca-tothefinaltreatmentofend-of-lifebatteries.Theresultisationofproductionalsoplaysanimportantroleinsustainability,quantificationofthisindustryuntil2030andanevaluationofinfluencedbyfactorssuchastheavailableenergymixandtheapproachesintheareasofmaterials,cells,production,systemsdistancetoupstreamanddownstreamproductionsites.andrecycling,notonlyaccordingtotheirperformancebutalsoaccordingtotheirsignificanceforthreekeytrends:Thepro-Thethreekeytrendsandtargetsystemsdiscussedintheductionofperformance-optimizedbatteries,theproductionofstudyarepartlycontradictory.Highperformanceissometimesparticularlylow-costbatteriesandtheproductionofparticular-expensiveandatthelimitsofwhatistechnicallyfeasible.Thelysustainablebatteries.highpriorityofalowenvironmentalfootprintmaylimittheuseofsometechnologiesandmustalsotakeintoaccountend-LIBtargetsystemandindustrialimplementationof-lifetreatmentinthedesignphase.Whiletherearesomecompromisetechnologiesthatcombineseveraloftheseobjec-Thereareambitiousdevelopmentgoalsforperformance-tives,thecurrenttrendintheindustryseemstobemoreintheoptimizedbatteries.Overthenextfewyears,theaimistodirectionofdiversificationandtheproductionofbatterieswithsignificantlyincreasetheparametersofenergydensityclearprofilesandusecases.andfast-chargingcapabilityinparticular.Itisnotuncommontoseetargetsofmorethan800Wh/landmorethanThedevelopmentofbatteriestailoredtospecificapplication350Wh/kginindustryroadmaps.Forsomeflagshipvehicles,requirementsgoeshandinhandwithscalingupproduction.chargingrateswillbeacceleratedto4CandthusintotheInrecentyears,therehasbeenastrongfocusoncellproduc-rangeof10to20minutes.Toachievethesegoals,theindustrytion.Thereareplanstobuildmorethan10TWhofannualisturningtohigh-nickelcathodes,siliconanodesandnewcellproductioncapacityby2028.Evenifthisfigureisadjustedtoandpackdesignsthatchangespacerequirements,thermaltakeintoaccountthelikelihoodofimplementationandtypicalcouplingandsafetycharacteristics.Thegoalssoundimpres-delays,upto5TWhofcellproductioncapacitycouldstillbesive,andthetechnologicalapproachesareverypromising.availablein2028.However,itisincreasinglybeingaskedwhethersuch“bestofclass”approachesaresuitableformassproduction,andwhet-Lookingattheupstreamvaluechain,itisclearthatthisfigurehertheyarecompatiblewithasecondmajorandmaybeevenishighandreflectsakindofgoldrush.Here,scalingprojectshavebeenannouncedthatwouldenabletheproductionof3ExecutiveSummaryaround3TWhofanodeandcathodeactivematerialsin2028,areplansinplacetobuildproductioncapacitiesofaroundwhichisclosertotheprojectedbatterydemandoftheapplica-200GWh,mainlyforgraphite,by2028.Thefigureforcat-tionmarketsof2to3.5TWh.Thesefiguressuggestthattherehodematerialsisexpectedtorangefrom400tomorethancouldbeaconsolidationofcellproductionprojectsinthe600GWh,whichisroughlyinlinewiththeprojecteddemandcomingyears.Atthesametime,itislikelythattherewillsoonforbatteries.beagreaterfocusonmaterialsproduction,asjointventureswithautomotiveOEMsincreasinglyenterthissegmentoftheAtfirstglance,therefore,Europeappearstobewellonthevaluechain.waytobecomingself-sufficientinthevaluecreationstepsexaminedinthisstudyfrommaterialtobatterysystem.Howe-Howbatteryrecyclingcapacitywilldevelopisstillunclear.Byver,gapsstillexistandnotjustintermsoftheanodemate-2030,therecyclingofproductionwasteinparticularwillplayrials,e.g.,inpassivecellcomponentsorthekeytechnologyofanimportantrolefortheindustry.Itisnotyetknownhowsca-lithiumironphosphate,whichisextremelyimportantforlow-lingwillworkwiththeEoLbatteriesthatwillthenbereturned.costbatteries.Sofar,therehavebeennosubstantialannoun-cementsregardingtheexpansionofproductioncapacitiesEuropeonthewaytoself-sufficiency?forthismaterial.Italsoremainsunclearwhichmanufacturersintendtocoverthistechnologyincellproduction.Similarly,noInInEurope,too,thereisstillalargeimbalancebetweenmaterialmanufacturerhasyetcommittedtobuildingsignifi-supplyanddemand.Thelatterisexpectedtobearoundcantcapacityforsiliconmaterials,whichareconsideredtobe550GWhin2028duetoincreasedelectricvehicleproduction.thenextgenerationofLIBtechnology.Thiscontrastswithannouncementsofplanstobuildcellproductioncapacitiesof1.7TWh,ormorerealisticallyaroundTofillinthesegapsandcreateacompetitive,self-sufficient1TWhafteradjustmentsforthelikelihoodofimplementationandsustainableEuropeanbatteryecosystem,anumberofanddelays.ThesefiguresforEuropethereforeconfirmthechallengesstillneedtobeovercome.Theseincludeinvest-globaltrendofastrongfocusonprojectsandinvestmentsmentsandinvestmentconditions,energycosts,thetrainingincellproduction.Thegoaloflocating30%ofglobalcellofqualifiedworkersandthecreationofacontinuouslocalproductiononEuropeansoilcouldbeachieved.valuechain.Streamliningbureaucraticprocessesandreducingtime-consumingprocedures,aswellasimprovinggovernmentHowever,Europeislikelytoremainweakintheproductionsubsidiesandfinancingmechanismscouldhelptoattractofanodematerialsandwillhavetorelyonimports.Theremoreindustrialplayersandensurealevelplayingfieldwithnon-Europeancountries.Figure1:SchematicrepresentationofthethreeLIBtargetsystemsunderconsideration:(1)performance-optimized,(2)cost-optimizedand(3)ecologically-optimizedandavailabletechnologies.CelltopackNi-richCAMStandardizedSiAAMcellsEnergyandCost-Performance-800VlocationcostoptimizedoptimizedsystemFe-,SmartBMSMn-basedEcologically-CAMoptimizedRecyclingMiniDrycoatingenvironmentsEnergymixPFAS-free4ZusammenfassungZusammenfassung5ZusammenfassungZusammenfassungDerMarktfürLithium-IonenBatterien(LIB)wächst,überGren-z.B.mitder800VTechnologieeineneueOptionzurPerfor-zenundauchüberKrisenhinweg.ImJahr2023könntedermanceverbesserungzurVerfügungundauchsoftwareseitigAbsatzzumerstenMaldieMarkevon1TWhBatteriekapazitätsoll,z.B.durchintelligenteManagementsysteme,nochmalüberschreiten.Bis2030sollsichdieNachfragesogaraufübermehrausderBatterieherausgeholtwerdenkönnen.3TWhmehralsverdreifachen.DiehohenWachstumsratenderletztenJahresetzensichfort.DerÜbergangvonderNachfrageDieseEntwicklungszieleklingeneindrucksvollunddietechno-undProduktionimGigawattstundenbereichindenTerawatt-logischenAnsätzesindvielversprechend.DennochstelltsichstundenbereichhatzahlreicheImplikationenfürdieIndustrie,immermehrdieFrage,wiemassentauglichsolche„bestofaberauchfürdieTechnologieentwicklungunddieAnforderun-class“AnsätzeseinkönnenundinwieferneinKonfliktmitgenanBatterien.UnlängstsindregulatorischeAnforderungeneinemzweitengroßenundvielleichtsogarbedeutsamerementstanden,diez.B.VorgabenzurNachhaltigkeitvonBatte-Entwicklungszielbesteht:derRedukionvonBatteriekosten.rienmachen.DerMasseneinsatzvonLIBinElektrofahrzeugenNachwievorliegtdasKostenzielaufBatteriepackebenebeihatdasThemaBatteriepreisindenVordergrundundtechni-sehrdeutlichunter100EUR/kWh.GegenüberheutigenKostenschereFaktorenwieEnergiedichteundReichweite,zumindestkanndiesdurchausdieReduktionum30bis50%bedeu-imKleinwagen-undMassensegment,indenHintergrundten.DieIndustriewilldiesesZieldurchdieNutzungsowohltretenlassen.UndjeweiterderMarktwächst,destogewichti-cobalt-alsauchnickelfreierMaterialien,dieStandardisierunggerwirdauchdieFragenachderProduktionslokalisierungundvonZellenunddieDirektintegrationinsBatteriepackerreichen.demAnteilanderWertschöpfung,denAkteureundNationenAuchneueProduktionsprozessekönntenbeitragen,sowohlinZukunfthabenwerden.durchdenHebelderEnergie-undAnlagenkostenalsauchübereineStandardisierungderFabrikselbst.AuchzeigtsichDieStudie„Lithium-IonBatteryRoadmap–IndustrializationbeidenKosten,dassTechnologienebendochnichtunbedingtPerspectivesToward2030“versuchtdemStatusderLIBalsstandortneutralsind.DieErreichungniedrigsterBatteriekostenkommerzialisierteTechnologieRechnungzutragen,indemeinkönnteandieNutzungdesgünstigstenProduktionsstandortsklarerFokusaufdieSkalierungsaktivitätenderIndustriegelegtgekoppeltsein.wird,ohnedievielentechnologischenHerausforderungenvondenMaterialienbiszumEndverbleibausgedienterBatterienzuGanzähnlicheÜberlegungengeltenfürdieHerstellungnach-vernachlässigen.ImErgebnisstehteineQuantifizierungdieserhaltigerBatterien,wiesieu.a.vonderEUBatterieverordnungIndustrieaktivitätenbis2030undeineBewertungtechnolo-aberauchvonimmermehrAutomobilherstellerngefordertgischerAnsätzeindenBereichenMaterial,Zelle,Produktion,werden.KonkretkannNachhaltigkeitvieleFaktorenvomSystemundRecyclingnichtnurnachihrerLeistungsfähigkeitRohstoffabbaubiszurProduktionundzuNutzungsszenariensondernnachihrerBedeutungfürdreiSchlüsseltrendsderbetreffen.ImFokusindustriellerEntwicklungendürftenindenIndustrieundAnwendung:DieHerstellungvonleistungsop-nächstenJahrenZelltechnologienundProduktionstechnolo-timiertenBatterien,dieHerstellungvonbesondersgünstigengienstehen,dieteilweisesogarNachhaltigkeit,z.B.imSinneBatterienunddieHerstellungvonbesondersnachhaltigeneinesgeringenCO2-Fußabdrucks,undniedrigeKostenkom-Batterien.binieren.Dazuzähleneisen-undmanganbasierteKathoden,einewasserbasierteodertrockeneElektrodenprozessierungZielsystemLIBundindustrielleUmsetzungunddieRückgewinnungvonMaterialienamBatterielebens-endedurchRecycling.AuchinPunktoNachhaltigkeitspieltderDieEntwicklungszielefürleistungsoptimierteBatteriensindProduktionsstandorteinegroßeRolleundwirktsichbeispiels-ambitioniert.IndennächstenJahrensolleninsbesondereweisedurchdenzurVerfügungstehendenEnergiemixoderdiedieParameterEnergiedichteundSchnellladefähigkeitnochmalEntfernungzuvor-undnachgelagertenProduktionsortenaus.deutlicherhöhtwerden.AufdenIndustrieroadmapssindnichtseltenZielevonüber800Wh/lundüber350Wh/kgzuDiedreiinderStudiediskutiertenSchlüsseltrendsbzw.Ziel-lesen.IneinigenFlagschifffahrzeugensollendieLaderatensystemestehenteilweiseimWiderspruch.HohePerformanceauf4CunddamitindenBereichzwischen10und20MinutenisthäufigteuerundbewegtsichanderGrenzedestechnischbeschleunigtwerden.ZurErreichungdieserZielesetztmachbaren.DiehohePriorisierungeinesökologischniedrigendieIndustrieaufKathodenmithöchstemNickelgehalt,Silziu-FußabdruckskanndieNutzungeinigerTechnologienein-manodenundneuenZell-undPackdesigns,diesowohldenschränkenundmussauchdieBehandlungnachdemLebens-PlatzbedarfalsauchdiethermischeAnkopplungundSicher-endeberücksichtigen.TeilweiseexistierenzwarKompromiss-heitseigenschaftenverändern.AufderSystemebenestehttechnologien,diemehreredieserZielevereinenkönnen,jedochscheintderTrendinderIndustriezurDiversifizierung6ZusammenfassungundHerstellungvonBatterienmitklaremProfilundAnwen-vonZellproduktionskapazitätenvon1,7TWh,bzw.nachdungsfallzuführen.KorrekturhinsichtlichUmsetzungswahrscheinlichkeitundVer-zögerungvonrealistischetwa1TWh.DieseZahlenfürEuropaHandinHandmitderEntwicklungspezifischererundanforde-bestätigenalsodenglobalenTrendeinerstarkenFokussierungrungsgerechterBatteriengehtdieSkalierungderProduktion.vonProjektenundInvestitionenaufdieZellfertigung.DasZiel,IndenletztenJahrenlageinstarkerFokusaufderZellproduk-30%derglobalenZellfertigungaufeuropäischemBodention.Mittlerweilehäufensichbis2028dieAnkündigungenvonanzusiedeln,könnteerreichtwerden.Zellherstellern,AutomobilOEM,Start-UpsundJointVenturesderselbenzumAufbauvonmehrals10TWhjährlicherPro-BeiderHerstellungvonAnodenmaterialiendürfteEuropaduktionskapazität.KorrigiertmandiesenWertunterBerück-derweilweiterhinschwächelnundaufImporteangewiesensichtigungderUmsetzungswahrscheinlichkeitundmittlerweilesein.Bis2028sollenProduktionskapazitäten,vornehmlichtypischerVerzögerungen,sostündenimJahr2028dennochfürGraphit,vonetwa200GWhaufgebautwerden.Beidenbiszu5TWhanZellproduktionskapazitätenzurVerfügung.Kathodenmaterialiensollenes400bisüber600GWhsein,wasinetwaderprognostiziertenBatterienachfrageentspricht.DassdieserWerthochistundeineArtGoldgräberstimmungausdrückt,verdeutlichtderBlickaufdievorgelagerteWert-EuropascheintdamitbeidenimRahmenderStudieuntersuch-schöpfungskette.HierwurdenSkalierungsprojekteangekün-tenWertschöpfungsschrittenvomMaterialbiszumBatterie-digt,dieeineHerstellungvonetwa3TWhanAnoden-undsystemaufdenerstenBlickaufeinemgutenPfadinRichtungKathodenaktivmaterialienin2028ermöglichenwürden,wasSelbstversorgungzusein.ImDetailbestehenjedochnochnäheranderprognostiziertenBatterienachfragederAnwen-Lücken,auchabseitsderAnodenmaterialien,z.B.beidenpas-dungsmärktevon2bis3,5TWhliegt.DieZahlenlegennahe,sivenZellkomponentenoderauchbeiderfürniedrigeKostendassesindennächstenJahreneineKonsolidierungbeidenwichtigenSchlüsseltechnologieLithiumeisenphosphat.BislangZellproduktionsprojektengebenkönnte.GleichzeitigistwurdenkeinenennenswertenAnkündigungenfürdenAufbaueswahrscheinlich,dassdieMaterialherstellungdemnächstvonMaterialproduktionskapazitätengemacht.AuchbeiderstärkerindenFokusgerät,z.B.indemzunehmendJointZellherstellungerscheintweiterhinunklar,welcheProduzentenVenturesmitAutomobilOEMauchindiesenWertschöpfungs-dieseTechnologieabdeckenwollen.Ebenfallshatsichnochschritteinsteigen.keinMaterialproduzentzumAufbaugrößererKapazitätenfürSiliziummaterialien,diealsLIBTechnologiedernächstenGene-UnklaristaktuellnochderKapazitätsaufbaufürdasBatterie-rationgelten,bekannt.recycling.Bis2030wirdinsbesonderedieVerwertungvonProduktionsabfälleneinegroßeRollefürdieIndustriespielen.UmdieLückenzuschließenundeinwettbewerbsfähiges,WiesichdieSkalierungmitdendannzurückkommendenEoLsouveränesundnachhaltigeseuropäischesBatterie-ÖkosystemBatteriengestaltet,istaktuellnochunbekannt.zuschaffensindnocheinigeHerausforderungenzumeistern.ZudiesengehörenInvestitionenundInvestitionsbedingungen,EuropaaufdemWegzurSelbstversorgung?hoheEnergiekosten,dieAusbildungqualifizierterFachkräfteunddieSchaffungeinerdurchgängigenlokalenWertschöp-AuchinEuropabestehtnocheinhohesUngleichgewichtzwi-fungskette.DieStraffungbürokratischerProzesseunddieschenAngebotundNachfrage.Letzteredürfte2028aufgrundVerringerungzeitaufwändigerVerfahrensowiestaatlichederstarkenElektrofahrzeugproduktionbeietwa550GWhSubventionenundFinanzierungsmechanismenkönnenweitereliegen.DemgegenüberstehenAnkündigungenfürdenAufbauindustrielleAkteureanlockenundfürgleicheWettbewerbs­bedingungenmitdemaußereuropäischenAuslandsorgen.7Introduction1.Introduction8Introduction1.1.IntroductionandMotivationLithium-ionbatteries(LIBs)haveemergedasindispensableandincontinuousoptimizationratherthansuddenbreakthroughs.widelyadoptedenergystoragesolutionsinelectricvehicles,ForLIBs,theemphasishasshiftedfromdiscoveringentirelyespeciallyinhigh-energyconfigurations.Nonetheless,theirnovelmaterialstoenhancingtheperformanceofexistingapplicationalsoextendsbeyondelectricmobilityandisrapidlyones.Theescalatingpublicdiscourseonclimatechangeanddiversifyingacrossotherindustries,includingaerospace,thethenecessityforsustainableenergysourceshasamplifiedenergysector,andconsumerelectronics.thesignificanceofthisroadmap.CurrentdevelopmentsshowthatoptimizationisnolongersolelyconfinedtoresearchScopeandfunctionofroadmaps.endeavorsbutprimarilyenabledbyindustry-driveneffortsandinitiatives.Hence,thisLIBtechnologyroadmapisorientedRoadmapsareintendedtobeusedasastrategicguidelinetowardmonitoringthetechnologychoicesandadvancementsforthefurtherdevelopmentandoptimizationoftherespectiveanticipatedbyindustryplayersratherthanjustdocumentingtechnologies.Theyfacilitatecontinuousimprovementand(public)research.canhelptoovercomecurrentperformancelimitationsthroughtargetedresearchanddevelopment,drivinginnovation.Focusonmarketramp-upRoadmapssupportindustryplayersbyprovidingoverviewsofplannedproductioncapacities,investments,andsupplychainLIBshavesolidifiedtheirpresenceasaversatilesolutionexpansion.Aroadmapfocusingonimprovementstoandappli-acrossvariousapplications.Technologicaladvancementspri-cationsforhigh-energyLIBsiscrucialtopromotesustainablemarilystemfromcompetitivedynamicsamongmanufacturers,batterytechnologiesandcontributetotheenergytransition.emphasizingimprovementsinperformanceandcostefficiency.Thiscanhelptoempowertheindustrytoaddresschallenges,Thefocushasshiftedfrombasictechnologydevelopmentsprepareforfuturedevelopments,andfullyharnessthepoten-neededforapplicationstomassproductionandscalinguptialofthistechnology.lithium-ionbatteryproductiontomeettherisingdemand.Thisisalsotruefortheprinciplesofthecirculareconomy.Thisroadmapfocusingonhigh-energyLIBswascompiledAsaresult,thepivotalKeyPerformanceIndicators(KPIs)out-todescribethetechnologicaldevelopment,availability,andlinedinthisandcompetingroadmapshavetransitionedfromcostoptimizationoflithium-ionbatteries.Technologically,solelymaterialorcell-levelmetricstosystem-levelconsiderati-thereisstillpotentialtoimproveperformance,sustainability,ons.Theynowencompasslargerscaleissues,including(raw)andoptimizecosts.Thisroadmapisevenmoreimportantmaterialavailabilityandprocurementinkilotonsorsooningiventhedebateonclimatechangeandtheneedtodecarbo-megatons,meetingdemandatGWh-scaleorsoonatTWh-nizetheeconomy,currentgeopoliticaltensions,andcountries’scale,andinvestmentvolumesinbillionsofeuros.attemptstoachievetechnologicalsovereignty.TherearesubstantialinvestmentsdedicatedtoadvancingWhatdoesthismeanLIBtechnologyandproduction.ForecastsanticipateatenfoldfortheFraunhoferISIroadmap?increaseintheseinvestmentsintheshortterm.Inaddition,thereisagrowingglobaltrendtowardestablishingcircularThisroadmapcomplementsandexpandstheexistingFraun-batteryecosystems,aimingtopromotesustainabilitythroughhoferISIroadmaps,adaptingandenlargingtheirmethodologyefficientbatteryrecyclingandresourceconservation.andobjectivesinparallelwiththetechnologicalmaturityandmarketevolutionofLIBs.Earlieriterationslikethe"LIB2015Inthenearfuture,LIBsaretheonlygiga-scalebatterytech-Roadmaps"concentratedondiverseapplications,employingnologysuitableforautomotiveapplications,withlead-acidvarioustechnologyapproachestomeetdistinctrequirements.batteries(PbA)remainingthesolealternativeatGWhproduc-Conversely,the"BEMA2020Roadmaps"emphasizeddifferenttionlevels.Hence,theroadmaprepresentsastrategicinitiativebatterytechnologiesandtheirpotentialadvancements,parti-focusedonoptimizingandadvancingLi-iontechnology.cularlyinperformanceenhancement.Incontrast,thisroadmapistailoredtoaddresstheindustry'sstrategiesformeetingtheWhatdoestheroadmapmeaninthiscontext?growingdemandforLIBsanddeterminingtheextenttowhichindividualstakeholderscanaddvalue.Atechnologyroadmapstrategicallymonitorsandprojectstheevolutionofaparticulartechnology,withprogressembodied9IntroductionFigure2:FurtherdevelopmentoftheresearchfocusofBMBF-fundedISIbatteryroadmapsinparalleltotheindustry'sprogressinscalingup.2023+BEMA2020IILithium-IonBatteryRoadmap–Technologyandindustryscale-up2018IndustrializationPerspectivesTechnologyandapplicationmatch,2015BEMA2020Toward2030researchandindustryfocusLIB2015AlternativeBatteryTechnologyfocus,research-focusedTechnologiesRoadmap2030+Technologyopen,research-focusedSolid-StateBatteryRoadmap2035+EnergyStorageRoadmap–HEBatteries2030+andPerspectivesofFutureTechnologiesApplicationroadmaps(mobile,stationary)ExplorativetechnologyroadmapsDoestheroadmapfocusonlyonmarketshareWhatinsightsdoesthisroadmapoffer?andvaluecreation?ThisroadmapexploresadvancedandmatureLIBtechnologies,Alongsideeconomicconsiderations,environmentalaspectsfocusingonindustrialscale-up(When?)andindustrialarealsobecomingmoreimportant.Althoughbatteriesaimtostakeholders(Who?)ratherthantechnicalspecifics(How?)addresssocietalchallengeslikeclimatechangeanddecarbo-(chapter3).ItoffersastructuredanalysisofplannedLIBnization,theirproductioninvolvescriticalrawmaterialsandmaterialandcellproductioncapacities,anddiscussesregionalleavesasubstantialecologicalfootprint.Thus,effectivemarketshares,keyplayers,andscale-uppotentials.Additional-recyclingprocessesareessentialattheendoftheirlifecycle.ly,itevaluatestrendsintechnology,production,andkeyareaslikeperformanceimprovement,sustainability,cost-effectiveThediscoursesurroundingbatteryoriginandglobalsupplymanufacturing(chapter4.1),andmeetingthegrowingdemandchains,bothcloselytiedtotechnologicalsovereignty,isintheautomotivesector(chapter4.2).gainingsignificanceinEurope.Thisroadmapwascompiledinthecontextofdiverselegalandpoliticalregulations,suchThisroadmapcloseswithafocusonGermanyandEurope,astheEUBatteryRegulation,theEUCriticalRawMaterialsanalyzingthestrengthsofthedomesticindustryandinterpre-Act,theUSInflationReductionAct,andnotabletradepolicytingthepresenceofAsiancompaniesinEuropeasanindicatordynamicsbetweenmajorglobalcenterslikeChina,Northofthelocation'sviability(chapter4.3).Accordingly,itincludesAmerica,andEurope.Publicdiscourseandpoliticaladvance-discussionsaboutEuropeanLIBsorwhatshareofEurope’smentshavefurtherunderscoredtherelevanceofthisroadmapowndemandcanbemetbydomesticproduction.Italsopro-concerningsustainablebatterytechnologyandtechnologyvidesanoutlooktofurtherdevelopmentsinthepublicdebatesovereignty.TherearealsolinkstootherFraunhoferISIstudiesandpolicydevelopments.focusingontechnologicalsovereigntyandoverarchingpoliticalmeta-roadmaps.10Introduction1.2.MethodologyThisroadmapfocusesprimarilyonthefurtherdevelopmentofTousetheinformationinthisroadmap,over600datasetsonLIBtechnologyfromanindustrialproductionperspective.Thepast,presentorfutureproductioncapacitiesofcellmanufactu-roadmapisglobal,technology-neutralandlimitedtotheperiodrersandaround250datasetsonmaterialmanufacturerswereupto2030,althoughmanyoftheactivitiesdiscussedrelatecollectedandintegratedintoanoveralldatabase.Thedatabasetothenextfewyears,e.g.,upto2025.Inthisrespect,thisLIBcontainsinformationonthelocation,operatorand,ifapplicable,roadmapdiffersfromotherFraunhoferISIroadmapstudiesfinancerofaproductionplant,thestatusofproduction[1,2],whichlookatamuchlongerdevelopmentperiodandthe-announcementsandtheproductsthemselves(e.g.,materialreforealsoplaceamuchgreaterfocusonresearchactivities.type,celltype).BatterytechnologyandKPItargetsInordertobeabletocombineandusedifferentsourcesofinformationanddifferentlevelsofdetail,allthedatasetswereResearchisbeingdoneonavarietyoftechnologiesintheareasevaluatedintermsoftheirvalidity,feasibilityandaccuracy.ofmaterials,cells,productionandrecycling.Onlyasmallpro-portionofthesemakeitintoindustrialapplication.Inthisroad-Thisisparticularlyimportantfortheevaluationandcomparisonmap,welimitourselvestotechnologiesforLIBsthathaveeitherofannouncementsconcerningtheexpansionofproductionalreadybeenadoptedbytheindustryorforwhichtheindustrycapacities.Companiessometimescommunicateverydifferentlyhasclearlypositioneditselfforfutureuse.here,bothintermsofthetimingoftheannouncementanditsspecifics.FourparameterswerethereforedocumentedtoTheanalysesarethereforebasedinparticularonindustryroad-evaluateannouncements:mapsandotherannouncementsconcerningtheproductionoruseofspecifictechnologies.Asmanyofthetechnologiesare1.Experienceofcompany:newcellmanufacturer,establishedstillunderdevelopment,concretetimetablesfortheirimplemen-cellmanufacturertationmustbetreatedwithcaution.2.Backgroundofcompany:carmanufacturer,jointventureTheplannedimplementationdatesofvariouscompaniesareofcarmanufacturer/cellmanufacturerpresentedinthetechnologychapters.Wedonotevaluatetheseinthecontextofthisroadmap.However,thetechnol-3.Typeofannouncement:newsite,expansionofogychaptersalsoincludeadescriptionofthekeydevelopmentanexistingsitechallengesassociatedwiththesetechnologies.Thesearebasedontheevaluationofscientificliteratureandthereforemostlyon4.Progressofconstruction:existingproductionsite,informationthatdoesnotcomefromtheplayerswhowanttoproductionsitespecified,financingavailable,usethetechnologiesindustrially.constructionstartedInInsomecases,weprovideKPIsforthesetechnologies,eitherFortheanalysesandforecasts,theindividualannouncementsbasedoninformationprovidedbyindustryorourownevalua-wereweightedandtotaledusingtheseparameters.Ifthetion,e.g.,usingtheFraunhoferISIcelldesigntool(seealso[3]).productionsitewasspecifiedandtheinvestmentexpectedtobesecured,theannouncementwasclassifiedas“expected”.MaterialandcellproductioncapacitiesIftheplanswereoptionalexpansionsofexistingplants,ortheproductionsitewasnotconcretelyspecified(e.g.,onlyonCurrentandfutureproductioncapacitieswerecompiledbasedcountrylevel)orthedecisiontoinvestdidnotseemfinal,theonproducerinformation,eitherdirectlyfromtheproducersannouncementwasclassifiedas“potential”.Plansthatlackthemselves,e.g.,intheformofpressreleases,annualreportsconvincingindicationsthattheywillberealized(e.g.,lackoforcompanypresentations,orindirectly,e.g.,fromstudiesandfinancingoronlyroughplansonagloballevel)wereclassifiedasnewspaperreports.Thevariousdatasourcesarenothomo-“doubtful”.Additionally,cellmanufacturerswereclassifiedintogeneousintermsofformatandinformationandrangefromestablishedandnewbasedontheirexperiencewithlarge-scalespeculativestatementstovalidateddata.Thedatabasisforthebatterycellmanufacturing.Threealternativeclassificationswereevaluationonlyincludescommunicatedproducerinformation.usedtoaccountfortheadditionaluncertaintiesinthechoiceIfmanufacturersdonotcommunicatetheircapacitiesorexpan-ofcellformat.Announcedproductioncapacitieswithreliablesionplans,thesecouldnotbeincludedinthestudy.informationaboutthecellformatsandwhichareassumedtohaveahighlikelihoodofrealizationweredenotedas“certain”;announcementswitheitherreliableinformationaboutthecell11IntroductionformatorahighrealizationlikelihoodweredenotedasRecyclingcapacities“expected”;announcementswithneitherreliableinformationnorahighrealizationlikelihoodweredenotedas“potential”.Toestimatefuturerecyclingcapacitiesandidentifytherelevantactors,announcementsofcapacityadditionswerecollectedInadditiontothisproject-specific"likelihoodofimplementa-inadatabaseandanalyzed.Similartotheapproachtakenfortion",twootherfactorscaninfluenceactualfutureproductionmaterialandcellproducers,directinformation,e.g.,inthecapacities:(1)delaysinsettingupproductioncomparedformofpressreleases,annualreportsorcompanypresenta-totheSoPcommunicatedbythecompanies;(2)productiontions,orindirectinformation,e.g.,fromstudiesandnewspa-rejectsorset-uptimesthatreducethestatedproductionperreports,wasused.Thissearchresultedinatotalof163capacity.Wehavelongobservedthatcompaniestendtocom-announcements.Thefindingsweresupplementedbyliteraturemunicatethecommissioningofnewproductionfacilitieswithsearcheswhereapplicable.Thedataqualityofnon-Europeanoptimistictimeassumptions.Forourscenarios,wethereforemanufacturers,particularlythosefromAsia,islimitedduetotookintoaccountthepossibilityofadelayuntiltheactualSoPpooraccessibility.Thisisespeciallyvalidforthecurrentstatus.insales-readyquality.Wealsoconsideredtoolingtimes,pro-Newandlargerrecyclingplants,ontheotherhand,areoftenductionwasteandfactorsthatcanreduceannualproductionannouncedpublicly.capacityinlong-termoperations.Withinthisstudy,theproductioncapacitiesforEuropealsoPatentanalysesincludecountrieswhoarenotpartoftheEuropeanUnion(theUK,Norway,SwitzerlandandSerbia).ThepatentanalyseswereperformedusingIPCclasses(InternationalPatentClassification)undertheclassificationDemandforecastH01Mforchemicalenergystorage(e.g.,batteries).WeusedtheDerwentWorldsPatentsIndex(WPI)databasehostedTheforecastofthedemandforbatteriesisbasedonabytheScientific&TechnicalInformationNetwork.Thesear-marketmodeldevelopedbyFraunhoferISI,whichdescribescheswerelimitedtotransnationalpatentapplicationsdifferentbatterysubmarkets(passengerandcommercialEV,totheEuropeanPatentOffice(EPO)ortheWorldIntellectualstationarystorage,consumer,communication,computing,PropertyOrganization(WIPO),astheserequireahighleveltwo-andthree-wheeler,others).Themodelcanbeevaluatedofinvestmentinthepatentapplicationprocessandenableregionally(e.g.,globally,Europe)andusesvariousforecastingafaircomparisonbetweencountries.approaches:TheIPCclasseswithhighestnumberofpatentapplicationsinThebatterydemandofvehiclemarketsisdescribedonthemostrecentyear(2021)werecomparedtotheapplicationsthebasisofsegment-specificregistrationfiguresintheBassin2016(fiveyearsearlier)inordertoidentifytheIPCclassesDiffusionModel[4].Forthispurpose,adistinctionismadebet-withthehighestdynamics.Thecut-offcriteriaweremorethanweensevensubmarkets(A,B-segmentcars,C-segmentcars,50applicationsin2021and,whencomparing2016with2021,D,E,F-andSUV-segmentcars,lightcommercialvehicles,heavyadynamicdevelopmentlargerthan200percent(factor>2).commercialvehiclesbuses,motorcycles)andfourdrivetechno-logies(BEV,PHEV,HEV,ICE),eachwithdifferentassumptionsCompilationofaroadmapforthedevelopmentoftypicalbatterycapacities.Thedrivetechnologiesarenotmodeledindependentlyofeachother,Thisstudyyieldedthreeverytarget-specificroadmapsfor(1)sodisplacementeffectsbetweenthetechnologiescanalsoparticularlyhigh-performance,(2)particularlylow-costand(3)bemodeled,whichisrelevantinthecaseofhighmarketparticularlysustainablebatteries.ThewiderangeofindividualpenetrationofEVs[5].technologiesfromtheareasofmaterials,cells,systemsandrecyclingwereevaluatedandcombinedforthispurpose.BothDemandinothersubmarkets(ESS,3C,others)isdescribedtheevaluationwithregardto(1)to(3)andthediscussionofbydecayingexponentialfunctions.Thedevelopmentofpre-theadvantagesanddisadvantagesoftechnologycombinati-vioussalesfiguresfortherespectiveapplications(homeandonswerecarriedoutqualitativelybyexperts.Itispreciselythelarge-scalestoragesystems,electronics,powertools,etc.)istrade-offsbetweendifferenttechnologycharacteristics:energyalsousedasabasisforthis.Industrialdemandforbatteriesversuspowerdensity,costsversusflexibility,andmanyothersisbasedonOICAproductiondataformotorvehicles[6].thatcanleadtoaslowerimplementationoftechnologiesintheoverallbatterysystemthanmaybeimpliedwhenlookingattheroadmapsoftheindividualtechnologyproviders.12Introduction1.3.LIBPatentAnalysisGlobaltransnationallithium-ionbatterypatentapplicationsIntermsofR&Dandpatentactivities,thelargestandmosthaveincreasedmorethantenfoldinthepast20years,fromdynamicfieldsareLi-accumulators(secondarycells)withovermorethan300peryeararound2000toalmost4,000peryear2,700patentapplicationsin2021anda156%increasesincein2021.Japanusedtodominatepatentactivitieswithaglobal2016.Thisisusedasabenchmarkforfurtherpatentanalyses.shareofaround50%,butitsapplicationshavestagnatedatAmongtheIPCsub-classesanalyzed,theclassesforelectrodesaround1,000eachyearforseveralyears,causingitsglobalwerementionedin85%ofallLIBapplications.IPCclassesonsharetodeclinetobelow30%.Recently,othermajorplayerscellsarethesecondbiggestgroupwitha168%increaseinliketheUSA,SouthKorea,andtheEU27+theUnitedKing-patentdynamicsoverthepastfiveyears(numberofpatentsindomhavehadsharesbetween10-15%.Incontrast,China2021relativetonumberofpatentsin2016).Europeanpatenthasbecometheleadingcountryinpatentapplicationswithaapplicantshavelowerdynamicscomparedtoglobalactivities.recentshareofmorethan30%share.Othercountriesandworldregionshavealsoincreasedtheiractivities,withpatentTheIPCclasseswiththehighestapplicationdynamicsintheapplicationsharesreaching9%in2021comparedto2-4%pastfiveyears(morethan200%increasefrom2016to2021)inpreviousyears.weregroupedbytopics,resultinginsevengroups,eachofFigure3:Transnationalpatentapplicationsforelectrochemicalenergystorage(Batteries,IPCH01M).Numberoftransnat.patentapplications(#)1,400US1,200EU1,000CNJP800600KR400RoW20020052010201520200200013Introductionwhichhadmorethan100applicationsin2021.Theseshowrelatedtoreclaimingserviceablepartsofwasteaccumulators,ashiftofactivitiestowardoptimizingbatterycellsandthecompanyHunanBrunp(RecyclingTechnologyCo.,Ltd.),systemparts.asubsidiaryofCATL,isaleadingplayer.HunanBrunpwasfoundedin2008andisagiantenterpriseinthelithiumbatteryThisindicatesthatpurelymaterials-basedapplicationsareindustryandaprivateenterprisethatspecializesinthegreennolongerthemainR&Dtrend,andareassuchaselectroderecyclingofwastebatteries.connections,casingsealing,jacketsandheatingandcoolingcontrolareemergingtrendsinthebatterypatentlandscape.OthermajorapplicantsincludeLGEnergySolutions,SamsungSDI,SKOn(KR),Panasonic/PPES(JP),andvariousotherAsianAdditionally,thereareconsiderabledynamicsandhighsharescompanies.ActiveJapaneseandKoreancompaniesincludeforactivitiesfocusedonreclaimingserviceablepartsofMurata,GSYuasa,Sanyo,Toyota.Chinesecompaniesincludewasteaccumulators,particularlyinEUactivities,accountingforSVOLT,ATL,BTR,ShenzhenCapchem.Non-Chinesecompa-about11%comparedtoLIBcellapplications.Thissuggestsanniesweremajorapplicantsin2016buthavesincebeenoverta-increasingfocusonsustainabilityissuesalongsideperformancekeninallsubfieldsofactivities.optimization.EuropeanapplicantsactiveintheidentifiedfieldswithhighAstheanalysisofleadingcountriesalreadysuggests,thenewdynamicsincludeBMW,VW,BASF,Umicore,Northvolt,andbatteryapplicantsdrivingtheseactivitiesaremainlyfromVARTA.USandCanadiancompanies,suchastheGlobalGra-China.CATL(CN)istheabsoluteleaderamongpatentappli-pheneGroupandLi-Cycle,arealsoinvolvedintheseactivities.cantsacrossallfieldswithhighdynamics.EvenforactivitiesFigure4:IPCH01Msub-fieldswiththehighestapplicationnumbersanddynamics(2021vs2016).16Reclaimingserviceableparts14ofwasteaccumulators12Ratioof2021to2016applications10Electrodeconnections8insideabatterycasing64Reclaimingserviceable2partsofwasteaccumulators0Casings,Jackets1ElectrodeconnectionsinsideabatterycasingMeansforpreventingSealingSealing;ArrangementsforxfacilitatingescapeofgasesundesireduseordischargeCasings,JacketsSeparators,MembranesElectrodesLIBHeatingorcooling;100Temperaturecontrol10ShareofIPCassignmentsinallLIBpatents(%)EUGlobal14ApplicationsandRequirements2.ApplicationsandRequirements15ApplicationsandRequirements2.1.TechnicalRequirementsThissubchapterdiscussesdifferentrequirementsandspecial-forseveralreasons.First,electrochemicalprocessesinsidethetiesfocusingonbatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs).Thesemainlybatterycellsslowdownandincreaseinternalbatteryresistan-comprisetechno-economicaspectssuchastherequiredce,meaningitcanneithertakenordeliveritschargeasquicklyenergyorpowerlevels,costs,aswellascyclicandcalendarasunderidealconditions.Thus,on-boardbatteryandthermalaging.Wealsodiscusssustainable,technologicallysovereign,managementsystems(BTMS)aredesignedtodrawenergytoandcompetitivebatteryproductionandvaluechains,aswellwarmorcoolthebatterycellsasneededinordertomaximizeasbatteryproductionscalescomparedtoBEVproductiontheeffectiverangeandpreventexcessivebatterydegradation.numbers.Inaddition,weextendanddiscusstheseaspectsbySecond,additionalenergyisrequiredforheatinganddriverincludingotherapplicationssuchasPHEVs,stationarystoragecomfortaswellasotherauxiliarysystems.Third,unfavorableaswellase-bikesanddrones.roadandweatherconditionsmayincreasedrivingresistanceandconsequentlyenergyusage.Asaresult,manufacturersBEVpacksize,energyandrangerequirementsaimtomaximizetheeffectiverangeovertheentireservicelifeandawiderrangeofambientconditionstoremainclosertoPackcapacitiesandtheresultingelectricdrivingrangedependWLTPspecifications.heavilyonthevehiclepurposeandsegment.Vehiclesegmentsrangefromminiandsmallvehicles(ABsegment)throughcom-Mostmanufacturersareaimingatupto1,000kmrangeforpactcarsandmulti-purposevehicles(CMsegment)uptolargetheirleadmodelsandbalancetheirremainingmodelportfolioandpremium-typevehicles(DEFsegment),andSUVs.Moreo-bylowerrangetargetstoavoidunnecessarybatterymass,ver,manufacturerstypicallyoffershort-rangeandlong-rangewhichimpairsperformance,vehicledynamicsandefficiency,modelversionsandcountry-specificmodelportfolios,com-andincreasescosts.SeveralOEMssuchasTesla[15],BMWplicatingthepackcapacityassessment.Theassociatedpack[16],Volvo[17],Toyota[18]andVW[19]haveannouncedcapacitieshaveevolveddifferentlyovertime,buthavetypicallytargetsaroundbutnotexceeding1,000kmofrangewithinincreasedduetolargerpacksizesaccompaniedbyincreasingthisdecadewhenusinghigh-energyLIBs.Accordingly,theenergydensityatthecellandpacklevel.Thus,theaverageEuropeanCouncilforAutomotiveR&D(EUCAR)specifiesnetpackcapacitiescurrentlyrangefromaround30kWhforaround400kmofrangeforaveragelow-rangemodelsandABvehicles,to50-60kWhforCMvehiclesandsmallSUVs,morethan600kmofrangeforaveragelong-rangemodels70-80kWhforDEFvehicles,and70-90kWhforlargeSUVs.by2030[20].Incontrast,ToyotaannouncedBEVswithuptoCertainlargeSUVsandpremium-typevehicleshavealso1,500kmbytheendofthisdecadewhenintroducingall-solid-crossedthe100kWhthresholdandareevenapproachingstatebatteries[21].Theserangeimprovementsarebasedon150kWh.Overall,theaveragecross-segmentpackcapacityisthreecorrelatedstrategies:(1)largerpackcapacities;(2)bat-around50-65kWh[8,9].Thisisequivalenttoanaverageelec-terieswithhigherenergydensity;(3)improvedvehicleenergytricrangeofroughly200kmforsmallorlow-rangevehiclesefficiency.Thepotentialforlargerpacksisrestrictedbyspaceandaround450kmoreven650kmforlargeSUVs,long-ran-andweightconstraints,althoughoptimizedplatformsandagemodels,andpremium-typevehiclesundernormedconditi-higherdegreeofbatteryintegrationintothechassismayofferonsandcertificationstandards(WorldwideHarmonizedLightsomescopeforimprovement.Therefore,higherenergydensi-VehicleTestProcedure–WLTP).Despitetheseimprovementstiesarekey.SeveralOEMssuchasVW,Tesla,PSA,Mercedes,andconsiderableranges,rangeanxietyandtheperceivedRenaultandBYDaretargetingaround700-800Wh/land300-real-worldrangearestilltwomajorconcernsfordriverswhen350Wh/kgatthecelllevelby2025.800-1,000Wh/land350-consideringthepurchaseofaBEV[10,11].Therefore,thefol-400Wh/kgaretargetedby2030.Theseareroughlyinlinelowingsectionaddressesreal-worldperformanceandoutlineswiththeEUCAR’scell-leveltargetsof450Wh/kgand1,000futureOEMtargets.Wh/lby2030[20].Additionally,theEUCARspecifiespack-levelcapabilitiesof360Wh/kg(80%comparedtothecelllevel)BatteryperformanceandthustheeffectiveBEVrangeisand750Wh/l(75%comparedtothecelllevel).TheMercedesheavilyaffectedbytheambientconditions,withreal-worldBenzEQXXshowcasedtheeffectofoptimizingvehicleenergyconditionsbeingverydifferenttoandmorevolatilethanWLTPefficiencytomaximizerangeandindicatedthatitisfeasiblestandards.ThefocushereisusuallyondriversandtheirdrivingforamoderatelysizedEQSbatterypack(108kWh)toachievestyleaswellasambienttemperatures,withtheidealoperating1,000-1,200kminreal-worldtests[22].Similarly,theLucidAirtemperaturesforbatteriesbetween20and30°C.Empiricalreachesnearly900kmofWLTPrangewithdataandstudies[12-14]suggestthatwhilebothcoldandhotits118kWhbatterypack[23].Toconclude,wehighlightthattemperatureslowertheeffectiverange,colderclimateshaveatheseBEVrangestrategiescruciallyrelyontheassociatedlargerimpact.ColdclimatesmayhalvetheeffectiveBEVrangefast-chargingcapabilitytoenabletherespectivedailyorlong-distanceranges.16ApplicationsandRequirementsFigure5:RoadmaponcurrentandfutureBEVcapabilities,includingtheelectricrangeinkm(WLTP),energydensityinWh/l,andspecificenergyinWh/kg[9,17,20,24-27].Low-rangeWLTP202320252030Long-rangeWLTPTop-classWLTP200km~800Wh/l350-500kmPeakenergydensity450-550km300-350Wh/kg600-800kmPeakspec.energy600-800km~1,000km1PSA,VW,Volvo,Tesla650-750Wh/l12PSA,VW,Tesla250-300Wh/kg~1,000Wh/l2350-400Wh/kgRequiredenergydensityforotherapplicationsdemandsonthebatteryandbatterythermalmanagementsystemBTMS.Amongothers,fastchargingissuspectedofIncontrasttoBEVs,batteryrequirementsforfuturePlug-inacceleratingbatteryaging,especiallyatlowtemperatures.HybridElectricVehicle(PHEVs)arelikelytofocusmoreonThus,theBTMSmustwarmorcoolthebatterycellsasneed-specificpowerandpowerdensity,withtheEUCARstatingedtooptimizethechargingprocessandpreventexcessive350Wh/kgand800Wh/lasenergy-leveltargets[20].Thesebatterydegradation.Likewise,itisequallyimportantthatolderareachievedusingsubstantiallysmallerbatteriescomparedtobatteriesstillmaintaintheirinitialfastchargingperformanceBEVs,yettheelectricrangeofPHEVsisstillexpectedtoincrea-oratleastofferanacceptablechargingrate.setolowertheirCO2footprint.Current800Vplatformmodels-mostlypremium-typevehiclesAerospaceapplicationshavesignificantlyincreasedpower-–suchasthePorscheTaycanGTSST,Audie-tronGT,KIAandenergy-levelrequirementscomparedtoBEVs,particularlyEV6orHyundaiIoniq5haveaveragechargeratesofaroundconcerninggravimetriccapabilities.Forlongerflightdistances2.5-2.7C(20-25min,SOC10-80%)atmoderatetemperaturesofseveral100km,cellswithaspecificenergyofwellover[30,31].Thisisequivalenttomorethan300kmofrecharged300Wh/kgarerequired.Therearealsohighdemandsontherangewithin20minforlargebatterypacks(90kWh).powerdensityofbatteriesofover400W/kgincontinuousMaximumpeakchargepowerisaround270kW,whiletheoperation[28,29].CombinedChargingSystem(CCS)standardiscurrentlycerti-fiedupto350kW.Standardandvolumemodels–mostlywithTherequirementsforstationarystoragesystemsdivergefrom400Vplatformarchitectures–arearound1.4-1.7C(40min,mobileapplications,althoughacompactsystemfootprintSOC10-80%)[30,31].TheEUCARtargetschargingratesofremainsapriority.Inindustrialanddomesticapplications,the3.5C(17min,SOC0-80%)by2030,whichrepresentaroundenergydensityrequirementsofstationarystoragesystemscan350kmofrechargedrangewithin20min.MostOEMtargetsoftenbemetbycurrentLIB.arelessthan20mintoreachthe80%SOClevel,equivalentto250tomorethan400kmofchargedrangedependingonFastchargingcapabilityforBEVsbatterysize[32].Toyotaannouncedaround10minofchargingtimeforfuturesolid-statebatteries[33].Fastchargingmaybecrucialtoenablelong-distancetripsbeyondthesinglechargeBEVrange,butthisplacesseveral17ApplicationsandRequirementsFigure6:Roadmaponrangerequirementsandfastchargecapabilities.Differentiationbetweenrechargedrange(10min,SOC10-80%)andC-rate[20,30-32].Standardrechargedrange(10min)20232030Top-classrechargedrange(10min)StandardchargeC-rate100-150km250-300kmTop-classchargeC-rate200km350-450km1.5C2-2.5C2.5-3C3.5-4CBatteryswappingTherearestillsomesystemicchallenges,suchasthefurtherdevelopmentofstandardizationandtheinteroperabilityInadditiontoincreasedbatterycapacityandfastchargingofbatteries,establishingdedicatedinfrastructure,dealingcapability,batteryswappingisprominentlydiscussedasanot-withdamagedanddefectivebatteriesaswellastheissueofheroptiontoenhancetherangeofanelectricvehicle.Tech-ownershipresponsibility[38].Inparticular,thelatteraddressesnicalrequirementsforbatteryswappingvarydependingonrequirementstoindicatethebattery’sstateofhealth(SoH),theapplicationandvehicletype.Batteryswappingforelectricpredictitsremainingusefullifeandbatteryagingmanagementvehiclesisaconceptwherebyanemptybatteryisswappedforcontrol.However,strongeffortsarecurrentlybeingmadeafullychargedoneinsteadofrechargingit.TheemptybatterytoaddressthesechallengesandsomeprogresshasbeenmadecanthenbefullyrechargedunderoptimizedconditionsbytheSwappableBatteryMotorcycleConsortiumfounded(e.g.,Nio[34]:<1Cat40kWandambienttemperatureofin2021[39]tostandardizeaswappablebatterysystem20°C),whichhelptoprolongbatterylifetime.Batteryswap-for2Ws/3Wswithregardtogeneral&safetyrequirements,pingrequiresspecialinfrastructurecalledbatteryswappingmechanicalparts,connectors,BMS,electricalpartsandteststations.Thesestationsmusthaveasufficientnumberoffullyspecifications.chargedbatteriesandhaveautomated,roboticsystemsorhumanoperatorstoswapthebatteries.EVbatterylifetimerequirementsBatteryswappingisviewedquitepositivelyinemergingReal-worldempiricaldataonbatterylifetimesarescarce.markets,particularlyinAsia,ASEANandAfricancountriesthatHowever,BEVbatteries–withanend-of-lifelimitof70-80%focuson2-wheel(2Ws)and3-wheel(3Ws)electricvehiclesSoH–areprojectedtolastbetween160,000and320,000km.[35].ItisparticularlyattractiveforthesesegmentsduetotheThisisequivalenttolessthan1,500cyclesorabout15tolowinitialvehiclecosts,costsforinfrastructureanditssuita-20years,whichissufficientformostvehicles.Empiricaldatabilityforfleetandcommercialvehicleapplications,especiallyfromTesla[40]andrecentstudies[41]underlinethesecapabili-duetothesmallsizeandlightweightofthebattery,whichties.TheEUCARspecifiesthatthebatterylifemustcorrespondcanbemanuallyhandled,andgiventhelackofchargingtothatofthevehicleandmustlastforatleast150,000km.infrastructureinthesemarkets[36].ThesefactorsenablequickMostBEVmanufacturersofferaround8-10yearswarrantybatteryswapsandminimizedowntimesinvehicleoperationontheirbatterypack.[37].Forpowertoolssuchascordlessscrewdriversorhedgetrimmers,smallandremovablelithium-ionbatterypackshaveIffutureBEVsareintegratedintotheenergysystembeenstate-of-the-artforsomeyearsnow,althoughcustomers(Vehicle-to-Grid,V2G),meaningthatelectricalenergyfromstillcomplainaboutthelackofinteroperabilityinsomecases.thebatteriescanbefedbackintotheenergysystemortheForklifttrucks,ontheotherhand,havehadastandardizedlocalhouseholdwithaphotovoltaicorhomestoragesystem,swappingsysteminplacefordecadesinordertoincreasethecycleliferequirementsmayincreaseaccordingly.However,vehicleavailability,especiallywiththepredominantlead-acidV2GwithnarrowSoCwindowsandlowC-rateswilllikelynotbatterytechnology.leadtoexcessiveageing.18ApplicationsandRequirementsESSandotherapplicationsbatterylifetimeindifferentregionsandconsequentlyindifferentmarketsallrequirementsovertheworld[46].Theinternationalstandardforthetrans-portationoflithium-ionbatteriesiscoveredbysection38.3inSettargetsandannouncementsforBEVsalsocovervariousthe7threvisededitionoftheUNManualofTestsandCriteriamobileapplicationsliketwo-andthree-wheelersandmicro-withatotalof8testsforinternalandexternalinfluences[47].mobility,buttherearedistinctdemandsforaviationappli-cationsthatemphasizehighenergydensitywhileoperatingBatterysafetyisacriticalaspectthatbeginsatcelllevel.withlowercyclenumbers.TherearemorestringentcriteriaforTherearedifferentapproachestoensuringsafetyatthisindustrialmobileapplicationsandstationarystoragesystems.level,butnotallsafetyfeaturesaresuitableforeverytypeofForinstance,heavy-dutytruckscanhaveservicelivesspan-battery.Forinstance,hard-casehousingcanwithstandinternalning1.2to1.6millionkmover5to15years[42-44].Thisispressurebetterthanpouchfoilhousing[3].Toensurecom-equivalentto3,000to7,000cycles,whichisbeyondthescopeprehensivesafety,cell-levelsafetyfeaturesareusedincon-ofstandardLIBs.TherequirementsforESSarealsosignificantlyjunctionwithmodule-levelsafetyfeaturestopreventthermalhigherdependingontheapplication.Dailycyclesmaybeusedrunawayinasinglecelldevelopingintothermalpropagationforloadshifting,sothataservicelifeof10yearscorrespondsinthewholepack.Thermalrunawaypreventionisthemosttoacyclelifeof3,000.Frequencyregulationorothergrid-prominentsafetyrequirementforbatteries,asthestoredsupportingapplicationscouldrequiresignificantlyhigherelectricalandchemicalenergycangenerateintenseheatandusagerates,sothatrequirementsincreaseto10,000cyclesleakgasesduringthermalrunawaythusendangeringpeopleandmore.Ingeneral,mostESSsystemsshouldbedesignedandtheenvironment.Triggersinclude,e.g.,overloading(BMSforaround20years(80%nominalcapacity),withstandardmalfunction),physicaldamage(lossofseparatorintegrity),warrantyperiodsofaround10years.heatexposureorinternalshortcircuitsduetomanufacturingdefects[48].Themaximum(ambient)temperatureaswellasaBatterysafetyrequirementsriseintemperatureaffecttheprobabilityofthermalrunaway,whichiswhyadangerousgoodstransportregulationsetsaElectricvehiclesandtractionbatteriesmustbeapprovedbythemaximumexternaltemperatureof100°C[49].Thermalbarrierauthorities(homologation)beforetheirmarketentrance.Thematerials(e.g.,ceramiccoatings)orheattransferspacesaswellUNECERegulationNo.100(ECER100-PartII)istheEuropeanasgasventing/routingandelectricalisolation-especiallyinstandardfortherechargeableenergystoragesystemsusedinhighvoltage(800V)systems-areofgreatinterestforsystem-xEVs[45].ToobtainEUapproval,severalthermal,mechanicallevelsafety[48].Thereareadditionalprotectivemechanismsandelectricaltestsatpacklevelarenecessary,e.g.,mechanicalforbatteriesinstalledinavehicle,suchasinsulationoftheHVintegrity,vibration,shockandcyclingtestsaswellassafetycomponentsandautomaticshutdownoftheHVsysteminthemeasures.Theregulationsandcertificationrequirementsdiffereventofanaccident.19ApplicationsandRequirements2.2.VolumeRequirementsThevehiclemarketwillcontinuetogrowinthecomingyears.scalabilityandstreamlinesbatteryprocurementacrossdiverseForexample,themarketforlightvehicles(<6t),whichcurrent-cellsuppliers.Sofar,Volkswagen(VW)haspredominantlylydominatestheEVmarketandthusglobalbatterydemand,utilizedprismaticandpouchcells.By2022,thedeploymentofisexpectedtogrowfromaround79millionunitsin2022topouchcellsincreasednotablyacrossmostVWGroupvehicles,110millionby2040[50].In2023,itislikelythatmostelectrictotaling17GWh.Around3.5GWhofthesepouchcellswerevehicleswillbebuiltbyTeslaandBYD,witharound1.8-2millionintegratedintotheVWID.3model.Inthefuture,VWaimstocarseach[51,52].However,futuredemandforBEVisexpectedfocusonprismaticcelldesign.TeslaemploysbothcylindricaltoincreasesharplyinparallelwiththerespectiveOEMs’needandprismaticcellformatsinstandardizedconfigurations.Inforbatterycells.Teslahasoneofthemostambitiousgoalsfor2022,Tesla's18650and21700cylindricalcellformatscontri-thefuture.By2030,themanufacturerwantstoproduce20buted5GWhand40GWh,respectively.Around25GWhofmillionvehiclesannually[53].Today’slargestvehicleproducersthe21700cellswereintegratedintotheTeslaModel3,whileintermsofnumberofvehiclesproduced(regardlessofdrivetheprismaticcellformatintwoTeslamodelsaccountedforatype)alsohavestrategiesforelectrifyingtheirunitsinthefuture.cumulative35GWh.BesidesCATL,prismaticcellsfromBYD,Thenumberofvehiclesproducedbysomelargemanufactu-alsoknownasbladecells,wereinstalled.BYDusesthesestan-rerstodayissignificantlyhigherthanthefiguresforTeslaanddardizedcellsinmanyofitsownvehicles(approx.30GWhinBYDandthesemanufacturershavethepotentialtoretaintheir2022)[58].Inthefuture,Teslawantstouse4680formatroundmarketpositioninafuturedominatedbyelectricmobility.Incellsonalargescale.OthercarmanufacturerssuchasGMand2022,Toyotahadthelargestmarketsharewithnearly10millionNIOalsointendtousethesamecellformatandBMWwantsvehiclessold,followedbyVolkswagen(about8million)andtosupplythenewgenerationBEVswithstandardized4695orHyundai/Kia(6.5million).GMandStellantisranked4thand5th,49120cellsinthefuture[59].GMcurrentlyemploysastandard-respectively(6and5.7million).izedUltiumpouchcellformatacrossvariousvehicles[60].SupplyvolumesforindividualvehiclesWithincreasingsalesfiguresforindividualmodelsofuptoonemillionvehiclespermodel,thedemandforstandardizedDuetorisingmarketdemand,salesofindividualmodelsarecellsforindividualmodelscouldcontinuetorisesharplycurrentlyatmorethanamillionannually(e.g.,HondaRAV4in(50-100GWh).Demandwillescalateifthelargestworldwide2022)[54].WithsalessuspectedtoreachmorethanonemillionglobalOEMs(seeabove)electrifymostoftheirmodelportfoliovehicles,theModelYcouldbecomethebest-sellingvehicleinanddeploystandardizedcells.Asanexample,abatteryrequi-2023[55,56],somethingnoEVhasachievedbefore.rementofupto300GWhcouldresultfortheVWGroup's2030target(80%BEVinEuropeandmorethan50%inThecorrespondingbatterydemandisalreadyhugeforjustNorthAmericaandChina).Installingstandardizedcellsin80%onevehiclemodeltoday.TheonemillionModelYcorrespondofallVWvehicleswouldmeanademandof200to250GWhtoabatterycelldemandofaround60to70GWh.TheVWforjustthisonecelltypeandonlythisoneOEM[60].Tiguan,whichwasVW'sbest-sellingmodelin2022with458,000vehicles[57],wouldrequire25-28GWhofbatteryCellmanufacturerscanproducearoundfourtofiveGWhofcapacityiffullyelectrified.cellsperproductionlineperyear.While,forexample,aroundfourlinesarerequiredtodayforVW'spouchcells,thedemandConsequently,ifanautomobilemanufactureraimstodeployforstandardizedprismaticcellscouldincreasetoupto40-60identicalbatterycellsacrossallversionsofjustonevehicleproductionlinesby2030.Approximatelyfourtosixproductionmodel,withtheobjectiveofstreamliningdesignandreducinglinesareoperatedinparallelatoneproductionsite,soaroundmanufacturingexpenses,thiswouldrequirebatterycellsup-tenproductionfacilitieswillberequiredtomanufactureVW'splierstoscaleuptheirproductioncapacitiessignificantly.Thisstandardizedcellsin2030.couldimplyfutureproductioncapabilitiesrangingfrommorethan10GWh(forlow-sellingmodels)topotentiallyexceedingThenumberofcellsandproductionsitesposesvarious100GWh(fortop-sellingmodels)forthisrespectivecelltype.challengesintermsofsecurityofsupply,logisticsandmain-tainingconsistentqualityinallplants.ItisalreadyapparentStandardizedcellformatsthatOEMsoftenpursueso-calledmulti-sourcingstrategiestosecuresupply.Tesla,forexample,sourcesitsroundcellsfromOEMandcellmanufacturersarealreadyworkingonstan-LGESandPanasonic.BMWrecentlyannounceditsintentiondardizedcelldesigns.Thisapproachfacilitatesproductiontopurchase46formatroundcellsfromCATL,AESCandEVEEnergy.GMalsointendstohavethecurrentUltiumcellsmanu-facturedbySDIinadditiontoLG[60].Besidesboostingsupply20ApplicationsandRequirementsFigure7:StandardizationandpossiblesourcingstrategiesofOEMsandresultingdemandscenariosforcellsofonetype[51,61].StatusQuo/2022StandardizationStandardizedwithinwithinonemodeloneentiregroup,20303.580%ofVWGroupdemand,GWh60%electrifiedfleetVWID.3pouchcelldemand60-70GWhVehiclewithonemillionsales200-250GWhperyear(e.g.TeslaModelY)25GWhTeslaModel321700demandVWGrouptargets:80%EVsalesinEurope,50%EVsalesinUSandChinaby2030securityandcompetition,thisalsoreducesthedependencyonandconsumermarket(3C)forthefirsttime,butstilllagswellonemanufacturer.Evenif,forexample,threemanufacturersbehindEVbatterydemand.areconsideredforthesupplyofstandardizedcellsforonebigOEMgroup,thedemandforcellsfromeachsuppliercanstillTherefore,theissuesoflinesizingandcellstandardizationdoamountto100GWhoruptofourproductionsites.notapplytoESStothesameextentasforEVs.Apartfromafewlargemanufacturers,theESSindustryischaracterizedbyThelargequantitiesofcellsmakesingle-sourcingstrategiesmanysmallerproducerswithmanageablepurchasevolumes.unlikely,particularlyinEuropeandAmerica.Incontrast,someItisthereforeunlikelythattherewillbecellproductionlineslargeChinesecellmanufacturersmightbeabletosupplycellsdesignedspecificallyforindividualcustomers.Onthecontrary,onsuchalargescale.Reasonsforpursuingsuchasingle-sourcecellsthatwereactuallydesignedforotherapplications(EV)strategycouldbein-housecellproductionatBYDfortheirownarestillfrequentlyusedintheESSsectortoday.Theaforemen-EVs,forexample,ortobeabletoofferauniquetechnologicaltioned4-5GWhperyearandproductionlineisthereforealsosellingpoint(e.g.,newandinnovativecellchemistries).acriticalthresholdforthedemandofanindividualESScusto-merwhocanenforcethedesignofcustomer-specificcells.ThehighdemandforstandardizedcellsalsoimpactstheTeslaachievedacomparablevolumeofESSinstallationsinupstreamproductionstepsinbatterymanufacturingtriggering2022[62].acorrespondingdemandforcellmaterialsandrawmaterials.Here,again,wecanseethatcellmanufacturerspurchaseESSindustrycustomersarethereforeunlikelytoplacehighactivematerialsfromdifferentmanufacturers.volumedemandsoncellmanufacturersinthemediumterm.Instead,itismorelikelythatthestandardizationofESScellswillESSindustrybatterydemandcomefromthecellmanufacturersthemselvesandthattheywillaimtosupplyseveralcustomerswiththesameESScell.Sofar,themarketforstationaryenergystoragesystems(ESS)hasbeenrathersmallcomparedtotheEVbatterymarket.In2023,ESSbatterydemandcouldexceedthatoftheelectronics21ApplicationsandRequirements2.3.Ecological,EconomicandotherRequirementsBEVbatterycostdiscourseoncreatingasustainablebatteryvaluechain,socialaspectsareprominentasathirdsustainabilitydimension.BNEFspecified115USD/kWhasvolume-weightedaveragecell-levelcostsin2022.Accordingly,thepack-levelvaluewasSinceelectricmobilityandotherapplicationsusinghigh-energy138USD/kWh(+20%)[63].Futurebatterycostsareassoci-batterysystemsareusuallymotivatedbythedesiredtransitionatedwithhighuncertaintyduetopotentialnon-negligibletowardacarbon-neutraleconomy,theecologicalsustainabilitydisruptionscausedbyrawmaterialshortages,supplychainofthebatteryvaluechain-anditscarbonfootprintinparti-disruptions,higherinflationlevels,orincreasedenergycosts.cular-isacrucialaspect.ThisisexpectedtobecomeamajorInaddition,costsdependonthechosenchemistryandformat.sellingpointandcouldbeawaytoimprovethecompetitive-Renaulthasannouncedpack-leveltargetcostsofaroundnessoftheEuropeanbatteryindustry.Thecarbonfootprintof100USD2019/kWhby2024andlessthan80USD2019/kWhabatterythroughoutitslifedependsheavilyontheapplicationby2030[27].Teslaalreadyconfirmedcell-levelcosttargetsitisusedin,aswellasonexternalfactors,suchastheenergyforits4680cylindricalcellsofaround70USD/kWhattheirmixoftheenergystoredinit.ThesphereofinfluenceforcellQ3EarningCallin2022-evenbeforeaccountingforUSincen-manufacturersincludesthesourcingofthebatterymaterialstivessuchastheInflationReductionAct(IRA).TheEUCARandtheenergyusedincellproduction.specifiescell-leveltargetcostsof70EUR2019/kWhanda15%surchargeforpackintegration(80EUR2019/kWh)byTheenvironmentalbalanceofabatteryisdeterminedonthe2030.TheBATT4EUStrategicResearchandInnovationAgendaonehandbythematerialsandcomponentsusedinitand,(SRIA)targetspack-levelcostsoflessthan100EUR/kWhbyontheotherhand,bycellproduction.Dependingonthetypearound2025andlessthan75EUR/kWhby2030formobileofbatteryandtheplaceofmanufacture,theshareofcellapplications[64].Recentstudiesandassessments[65]indicateproductionintotalgreenhousegasemissionsvariesbetweenthatpack-levelcostsof100USD/kWhmayfacilitatelarge-20and50%.VariousstudieshaveidentifiedtheoptimizationscaleBEVbreakthrough,whichwouldthenunlockfurtherofthermalprocesses(e.g.,dryroom,electrodedrying),whichcostreductionpotentials.accountforabout80%ofenergyconsumption,asacentralleverforimprovingtheCO2footprint.ProcessinnovationsinSustainabilitythisareacouldreduceemissionsbyapprox.25%upto2030.AnelectricitymixmoreorientedtowardrenewableenergiesWhiletheprojectcallsofGermanandEuropeanfundingagen-couldenhancethiseffect[66,67].cieshighlightecologicalandeconomicsustainability,thetermsustainabilityextendswellbeyondtheseaspects.InthepublicMaterialproductionisresponsibleforalargeproportionoftheemissions.DuetothedifferentvaluechainstepsandoptionsFigure8:Roadmaponfuturecell-orpack-levelcostsinEUR2020/kWh.[27,63-65]Av.cellcostsinEUR2020/kWh202320252030Av.packcostsinEUR2020/kWh~120€/kWh~90€/kWh~70€/kWh~150€/kWh~110€/kWh~80€/kWh22ApplicationsandRequirementsforthevariouscellchemistries,itisdifficulttomakeageneralThenewBatteriesRegulationsetsclearcollectiontargetsstatementhere,butminingandprocessingplayanimportantforend-of-lifeportableandLMTbatteries,startingat45%roleintermsoftheGHGbalance[67,68].Thesourceoftheforportablebatteriesbytheendof2023(LMT:51%byendlithiumused,whetherthisisextractedfrombrineorore,alsoof2028)andincreasingto73%bytheendof2030(LMT:hasasignificantimpactontheGHGbalance:Arecentstudy61%bytheendof2031).Nocollectionratetargetsare[69]concludesthatthedifferentlithiumsourcescanmakeadefinedforlargerbatteries,suchasthoseneededforelectricdifferenceofupto20%inGHGsforNMC811cathodesandvehicles,butitwillbemandatorytosetupatake-backandupto45%inGHGsforNMC622cathodes.Atthebatterycellcollectionsystemforthesetypesofbatteries.Additionally,thelevel,thismeansadifferenceofupto9%forNMC811batte-removabilityandreplaceabilityofportablebatteriesandLMTriesandadifferenceof20%forNMC622batteries.batterieswillbecomemandatoryby2027(knownas“DesignforRecycling”).Furthermore,arecyclingefficiencyisdefi-InEurope,batteryrecyclingisbeingstronglydrivenbythenewnedfordifferentbatterytypes.Forlithium-ionbatteries,thisBatteriesRegulation(Regulation(EU)2023/1542)[70],whichefficiencyoughttoreachatleast65%(inrespecttobatteryenteredintoforceinAugust2023.Thenewregulationappliesweight)bytheendof2025and70%bytheendof2030.toallbatteriesincludingwastebatteriesandstrengthenstheirForbatterymaterials,therecyclingquotamustreach50%forsustainability,safetyandcircularity.lithiumand90%forcobalt,copper,leadandnickelbytheendof2027.Bytheendof2031,thisvaluemusthaveincrea-UnderthenewBatteriesRegulation,acarbonfootprintsedtoatleast95%(Co,Cu,Pb,Ni)or80%(Li),respectively.declarationwillbecomemandatoryforeachbatterymodelFinally,by2031,electricvehiclebatteriesaresupposedto(>2kWhandbatteriesforlightmeansoftransport(LMT),containatleast16%recycledcobalt,85%recycledlead,suchase-scooters)andeachmanufacturingplant.Thiswillbe6%recycledlithiumand6%recyclednickel.ThesevaluesareintroducedfromFebruary2025forEVbatteries,fromFebruarysettoincreasein2036to26%(Co),12%(Li)and15%(Ni),2026forindustrialbatteries,fromAugust2028forLMTbatte-whilealsoapplyingtootherbatterytypes,suchasthoseusedriesandfromAugust2030forindustrialbatterieswithexternalinlighttransport.storage.StartingfromAugust2026,batteriesforelectricvehic-lesmustcarryalabelshowingtheircarbonfootprintovertheirWhiletheEuropeanUnionprovidesacleargoalforthelifecycle(andatalaterdatefortheothertypes).Amaximumtransitiontowardasustainableandcircularbatteryeconomy,thresholdforthecarbonfootprintwillbestipulated(forEVOEMhavestartedtoformulatetheirownsustainabilitygoalsbatteries)fromFebruary2028,butthiswillnotbedefineduntiltoaddresspotentialcustomerrequirements.ThefivelargestAugust2026.TofurtherimprovebatteryhandlingintermsofEuropeancarmanufacturershavecommittedtoreachingdismantlingandsafetymeasures,therelevantinformationistonetcarbonneutralitywithinthenextdecades(2038-2050)besavedinadigitalbatterypassport,whichcanbeaccessed(Stellantis2038,BMW2050,Renault2040inEurope/2050usingaQRcode.Thiswillbecomemandatoryin2027.global,Mercedes-Benz2039,Volkswagen2050[71-75]).Figure9:ImplementationroadmapfortheEUbatteryregulationanditssub-aspects[70].202320242025202620272028202920302031CO2footprintDeclarationCO2DefinitionofupperCO2limitsRecyclingefficiencyMin.recycledmaterials65%forLIB70%forLIBOtherCo,Cu,Pb,Co,Cu,Pb,Ni:95%Ni:90%,Li:50%Li:80%DueDiligenceBatteryPass23ApplicationsandRequirementsFurthercommitmentsconcernenvironmentalandsocialsus-foritswelfare,competitivenessandabilitytoact,andtobetainabilityaspects,includingDesignforRecycling(e.g.,[76])abletodevelopthemitselforobtainthemfromotherecono-andduediligenceinthesupplychain(e.g.,[77]).Thelattermicareaswithoutunilateralstructuraldependence.Establis-incorporatestakingresponsibilityfortheconditionsofrawhinglarge-scaledomesticmanufacturingofsuchtechnologymaterialextraction,whichisacontroversialissueforexampleinordertosafeguardvaluecreationintheEUanditsmemberforcobaltminingintheDRCduetothepoorconditionsforstatesisoftendemandedontopofthis.Severalpoliticianstheworkers[78,79],andforlithiummininginChileduetothehaveformulatedgoalsinthisdirection,suchasmeetingathirdhighconsumptionofwaterincomparativelydryregions[80].oftheglobalbatterycelldemandwithEuropeanproductionby2030[82].GeopoliticalaspectsarebecomingmoreandmoreManyothersustainabilityaspectsarediscussedthatconcernimportant,asindicatedbythedifferentstrategiesandactivi-batteryproduction.Theseincludetheuseofpotentiallytoxictiesofmanynationsandregionsthataffectelectricmobility.materialsinmanufacturing,suchassolventslikeNMPandtheExamplesincludetheInflationReductionAct,whichspecifical-discussedbanofPFASinEurope,duetotheirpotentialtoxicitylyaimstoadvanceanddeployAmerican-madecleanenergyandlongdurability.technologiesintheUS[83],theCriticalRawMaterialsActoftheEUorthebanonnickeloreexportsofIndonesia[84].Technologicalsovereignty,supplychainWithintheInflationReductionAct,incentivesandcreditsandsourcingwereannouncedforthepurchaseof“cleanvehicles”.VehiclespurchasedsinceApril2023onlyqualifyforthiscreditofuptoSincetheemergingbatteryeconomyiscriticalforenabling7,500USDiftheymatchtherequirements.Theseincludefinaltransformationinnumerousindustrialsectors,manyactorsassemblyofthevehicleinNorthAmericaaswellasrequire-havecalledforEuropetoachieveandsafeguarditstechno-mentsforthecriticalmineralsandbatterycomponents[85].logicalsovereigntyinthisfield.However,thistermisinterpre-Thelatterspecifythatthecriticalmineralscontainedinthetedinmanydifferentways.ThewidelyaccepteddefinitionofbatteryhavetobeeitherextractedintheUSoranycountrytechnologysovereignty[81]istheabilityofastateoranasso-withwhichtheUShasafreetradeagreement,orrecycledinciationofstatestoprovidethetechnologiesconsideredcrucialNorthAmericawithapercentagegreaterthan40-80%withFigure10:RegulationsinfluencingEurope’sbatterytechnologysovereignty.20232024202520262027...2030Locallysourcedcomponents40%45%55%EU‘sRulesofOriginMandatoryauditofMemberStates:Locallyextracted,processedsupplychainbylarge10%extracted,40%orrecycledrawmaterials(EU)companiesevery2yearsprocessed,15%recycled40%ofcriticalmineralsAnnual10%increaseto80%inextractedorrecycledin2027USorpartnercountryInflationReductionAct(US)50%ofbatterycom-ponentsmanufactured/Annual10%increaseto100%in2029assembledinNorthAmerica24ApplicationsandRequirementsrespecttotheyearinwhichthevehiclewasplacedinserviceDRC,whilearoundtwo-thirdsoftheglobalextractionof(increasingyearlyinstepsof10%from2023to2027)[86].naturalgraphitetakesplaceinChina.DiversifyingthesupplySimilarly,acertain(value)percentageofthebatterycompo-ofthesematerialsisthereforeamajorchallenge.NotbeingnentsmustbemanufacturedorassembledinNorthAmerica.dependentonsuppliersfromsinglecountriesbecomesevenThispercentagestartsat50%forvehiclesputintoservicemorerelevantforEuropeancellmanufacturers,giventhebefore2024,increasesto60%in2024/2025andsubsequent-recentgeopoliticaltensionsandconflicts,whichcantriggerlyinannualstepsof10%,reachingto100%in2029.traderestrictionsandembargoes,asalreadydemonstratedinthepast.IntheEU,theCriticalRawMaterialsActwaspassedin2023tolowerthesupplyriskforcertainrawmaterials[87,88].WhileTheEUBatteryRegulation,whichwasenforcedinJuly2023,settinggoalsfortheMemberStatesontheamountofmate-includesseveralArticlesthatindirectlyaddressthelocalizationrialsthatareextracted(10%),processed(40%)orrecycledofthevaluechain.TheBatteryRegulationannouncesthat(15%)by2030withintheEU,italsoholdslargecompaniesCO2-footprintswillbedefinedinthefuture,andthusindirectly(>500employees,or>150millionEURturnover)inthebatteryincentivizesalocalizationofthevaluechaintoshortentrans-valuechainresponsibleforaddressingtherisksassociatedwithportroutes.ItalsoobligesdistributorsandOEMtocarryoutdependenciesalongthevaluechain.Thecompaniesidentifiedduediligencemeasuresandriskassessment,whichincludesbytheMemberStatesmustperformanauditoftheirsupplythevolatilityofthesupplychain,inparticularconsideringrawchaineverytwoyears.Thisincludesmappingwherestrategicmaterialsandmetals.rawmaterialsareextracted,processedorrecycled,aswellasastresstestoftheirsupplychainbyassessingitsvulnerabilityFurthermore,variousfreetradeagreementsbetweentheEUtotheimpactofdifferentscenarios.Thecriticalrawmaterialsandothercountriesintroducefavorableconditions,suchaspotentiallyneededforcrucialbatterycellcomponentsincludereducedcustomduties,forproductsthatarerecognizedascobalt,nickel,manganeseandphosphateforthecathode,domesticallyproduced.Forexample,theTradeandCoope-fluorsparfortheelectrolyte,copperandbauxite(aluminum)rationAgreementbetweentheUKandtheEU[89]setthefortherespectivecurrentcollectors,aswellasgraphiteandrequiredlocallysourcedcomponentsforelectricvehiclesinpotentiallysiliconorgermaniumfortheanode.these“RulesofOrigin”at40%before2024,risingto45%afterwardsandfinallyto55%bythebeginningof2027.ForFurthermore,theCriticalRawMaterialsActhassetthegoalbatteries,30%ofboththecellandpackneedtobelocal,ofnotimportingmorethan65%oftheEuropeanUnion’sincreasingto50%(65%)forthebatterycelland60%annualconsumptionfromanysinglethirdcountryforany(70%)forthebatterypackuntiltheendof2026(beginningstrategicrawmaterialatanystageofprocessing.Thisvalueof2027),respectively.ThisrequiressitingthemanufacturingofisputintoperspectivewhenconsideringthatmorethanthemostimportantbatterycomponentswithintheEUinthe70%oftheglobalextractionofcobalttakesplaceinthenextfewyears.25IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps26IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsBatterymaterialselectrodestostackingpre-cutones,progressingtosingle-sheetstackingforprismaticandpouchcells.TheselectionofactiveandpassivebatterymaterialsisakeyfactorindeterminingtheperformancecharacteristicsoftheTheautomotiveindustrynavigatesbetweensingleandbatterycellsandpacks.Thestoragecapacityandkineticsofmulti-formatstrategies(seechapter3.2),withmostplayersthematerials,voltagelevelandbehaviorduringcyclizationoptingformulti-formatstrategiesandaimforstandardizedtranslatedirectlyintopropertiessuchasenergyandpowercellformatswithcustomiseddimensions.Noteworthytrendsdensity,butalsorobustnessandservicelife.Atthesametime,includetheresurgenceofprismaticcells(includingcell-to-packthematerialsintheoverallbatterysystemalsorepresentthedesigns),advancementsinlargercylindricalcellssuchas4680,largestshareofthecosts,whichisnotleastduetotheexpen-andevolvingpouchcellswithincreasedcapacityandcustomi-sivematerialsLi,CoandNicontainedinthecathode.zeddesigns.Forecastsanticipateformat-independenthigherenergydensitiesdrivenbymaterialimprovementsanddesignAmongthecathodematerials,threemainstrandshavenowinnovations.Morespecifically,itisassumedthatnearlyemergedwhicharelikelytocontinuetoplayamajorrolein1,000Wh/land400Wh/kgwillbeachievedbyaround2030,thefuture:(1)low-costFe-andMn-basedmaterialssuchaswithpouchcellsbeingtheleadingformat.LiFePO4(LFP)orfutureLi-andMn-richso-calledLMRs;(2)high-NimaterialswiththehighestspecificcapacitancesuchasBatterypacksandsystemsLiNi0.8Mn0.1Co0.1O2(NMC811)andfurtherdevelopmentsuptoalmostCo-freematerialswithaNicontentwellabove90%;Atthebatterysystemlevel,anumberofpromisingnewtrendsand(3)furtherternaryLi(Ni,Mn,Co)O2-basedmaterials(NMC)areemerging.TheCell2Pack(C2P)approachintegratesbatterywithhighstability,goodcapacityandmod-eratecost,e.g.cellsdirectlyintothebatterypack,eliminatingtheneedforwithsingle-crystalmorphologyandhighcellvoltage.Ontheindividualmodules.Thisconceptallowsforoptimaluseofanodeside,Si-basedmaterialswithhighspecificcapacityandspace.Asaresult,C2Pbatteriescanofferanincreasedspecificadvantageousfast-chargepropertiesareincreasinglyjoiningenergyanddrivingrange.TheCell2Chassis(C2C)designgoesthewell-establishedgraphites.Thematerialclassshowsaastepfurtherbyintegratingbatterycellsintothevehiclebody,highrangefromcompositesofSiorSiOxnanoparticlesandservingasastructuralsupportforthechassis.Thisreducesgraphite,whichcanratherbedescribedas"graphite-like",tovehicleweight,maximizesinteriorspaceutilization,andoffersSi-dominatedanodes,whichbringcompletelynewpropertiescostsavingsincomparisontomodule-basedbatteries.Howe-tothebatterycell.ver,thechallengesincludeprotectingtheexposedbatteryandensuringeaseofrecyclingandreplacement.AnothertrendisIndustryispreparingtoscaleupandimplementthesenewthe800Vtechnology,whichoffersadvantagesover400Vmaterials.OftentheseareaimedattheEVmarket,butinsystems,suchasdoublingthepowerorhalvingthecurrent.somecasestheyareclearlyaimedatotherapplications.IntheThehighervoltageenablesfastercharging,butthechallengesareaofSianodes,manyinnovationsarebeingintroducedbyincludealackofstandardizationandincreasedsafetyrequi-start-ups.rements.Batteryswappinginvolvesreplacingemptybatterieswithfullychargedones,eliminatingthechargingtime.IntermsBatterycellsofcoolingmethods,aircooling,indirectcooling,andimmer-sioncoolingareusedforthethermalmanagementofbatte-Thebatterycelldesigninvolvesseveralaspectswhichtogetherries.Indirectcoolingwithawater-glycolmixtureiswidelyusedleadtothelevelofenergyorpowerdensity,theseincludeincurrentvehiclemodels,offeringimprovedefficiencybutatelectrodethickness,coatingporosity,assemblytechniques,highercomplexityandcost.Immersioncoolingprovidesevenandchoiceofcellformat.Inordertoachievemaximumenergybettercoolingperformance,reducedcomplexity,andweightorpowerdensityinLIBs,certaintrade-offsmustbemade.butposesachallengeintheselectionofsuitablecoolingfluids.ElectrodecoatingsinautomotiveLIBstypicallyrangefromWithregardtothebatterymanagementsystem(BMS),itis50to80μm,althoughthetrendistowardover100µmwhichbecomingincreasinglyinterconnectedandsophisticatedingoeshandinhandwithlowercoatingporosities(aroundordertooptimizebatterycontrolandthusincreaseitsperfor-20%),thinnercurrentcollectors,andthinnerseparators.manceandservicelife.Electrodeassemblytechniquesrangefromwindingcontinuous27IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsUp-scalingandproductionorinlinemonitoring,whichbringimprovementsatvariouspointsintheprocess.Ifthroughputsincrease,particularlyincellInadditiontoimprovementsontheproductside,thereareassembly,higherthroughputsofanentireproductionlinecouldalsovariousimprovementmeasuresontheproductionside,inbeachievedandadditionalprocessstepssuchaspre-lithiationparticulartoproducebatteriesmorecost-effectively,butalsocanhaveapositiveimpactontheproductitself.moresustainably.Driven,amongotherthings,byinvestmentsofvariousOEMstheproductionlinesarecurrentlystillgrowinginRecyclingsizeandindividualproductionsitesareplanningtoproduceupto100GWhofbatterycells.AsincreasesinthethroughputofAccordingtorecentcompanyannouncementsthereisagro-individualproductionlinesarelimited,severalproductionlineswinginterestinLIBrecycling.Recyclingfacilitiesdifferintheirarebeingusedinparallelinlarge-scaleproductionfacilities.processes,whichcanincludetheprocessingofproductionThroughoverheadsavingsontheinfrastructureandbuildingsscrap,thepre-treatmentofEoLbatteriesortheuseofmetall-required,forexample,astheygrowinsizelargerproductionurgicalmethodsformaterialrecovery.Ongoingacitivitiesfocusfacilitiesbecomemorecompetitive.onimprovingmetallurgicalefficiencyanditsindustrialscale-up.ThedominantsourceofmaterialtoberecycledisexpectedtoOntheotherhand,therearevariousoptimizationapproachesshiftfromproductionscraptoEVbatteriesbythe2030s.LIBalongtheentireproductionprocessthataffectnotonlycostsrecyclingcorrespondstothegoalsofsustainability,resourceandsustainabilitybutalsothroughputandquality.Themostfre-conservationandreducedenvironmentalimpact,andisimport-quentlymentionedproductinnovationsthatcouldsignificantlyantinthecontextofacirculareconomy.Inadditiontorecycling,changecellproductioninthefuturearedrycoatingandtheusesecond-lifeapplicationsarealsoofincreasinginterest.ofminienvironmentsinsteadoflargedryingrooms.However,therearealsootherprocessinnovationssuchaslasertechnologyFigure11:StructureofthechapterandinvestigationlevelsforLIB.3.2.Batterycells3.1.BatterymaterialsScale-up&production3.3.Batterypacks&systems3.4.Recycling28IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.1.BatteryMaterials3.1.1.CathodeMaterialscontinuousprogressisbeingmadeinR&Donthismaterial(e.g.,usingnanocrystallineLFP)andLFPbatteriesingeneralCathodematerialsrepresentnotonlythelargestcostcom-(e.g.,cell-to-packconcepts),leadingtoanimprovedperfor-ponentinLIBs,buttheirfurtherdevelopmenthasalsohadmanceofLFPbatteries(e.g.,fast-chargingupto4CinCATL'sthegreatestinfluenceontheperformanceofLIBsinthepast.Shenxingbattery)[101,102].Effortstooptimizematerialsanddevelopnewmaterialsarecorrespondinglyhigh.Inthefollowing,wedistinguishbetweenLithiummanganeseironphosphate(LMFP)thecategories(1)iron-andmanganese-basedcathodeactivematerials(CAM)and(2)nickel-basedCAM.Theadvantageoflithiummanganeseironphosphate(LiMnxFe1-xPO4-LMFP)overLFPisthehigheroperatingLithiumIronPhosphate(LFP)potentialandthushigherenergydensityandspecificenergycomparedtoLFP.Atthesametime,stillnoexpensivematerialsLithiumironphosphate(LiFePO4-LFP)belongstotheclassareneeded(exceptforLi),sothatcostssimilartothoseforofpolyanionmaterialsandcrystallizesinanolivinestructureLFPcanbeexpected[103].Thechargeanddischargecurve[90,91].DuetoitshighertemperaturestabilityLFPisinherent-ofLMFPshowstwovoltageplateaus,correspondingtothelysaferthanlayeredoxidematerials[92].Additionally,LiistheFe3+/Fe2+(at~3.6Vvs.Li/Li+)andMn3+/Mn2+(at~4.1Vvs.onlycriticalorexpensivematerialthatitcontains,asitdoesLi/Li+)transitions[104].Hence,highMn-contentsaredesirednotcontainNiorCo,whichresultsinalowerpriceforthisforachievingahighenergydensity.However,highMn-materialcomparedtoNMC/NCA.contentsleadtoslowkinetics(Li-iondiffusion)andthustheMncontentshouldtypicallynotbeabovex=0.8[105].MostTheolivinecrystalstructurewithone-dimensionaldiffusionstate-of-the-artLMFPshaveaMn-contentofaboutx=0.6.pathwaysfortheLi-ionsresultsinarelativelyslowdiffusionofLi-ions.Moreover,LFPhasalimitedelectricalconductivity[92].OneofthechallengesforLMFPisitspoorrateperformance,Tocompensatefortheselimitations,asuccessfulapproachiscausedbyevenlowerelectronicandionicconductivitycompa-toreducetheparticlesizeandtouseconductivecarboncoa-redtoLFP[105].Thislimitationcouldbepartiallycompensatedtings[93].LFPexhibitsadischargepotentialof3.2V[94]andthroughcarboncoatingsandsmall(nano-)particlesizes.Fur-amediumspecificcapacityof150-160mAh/g(Table1),whichtherchallengesincludealowercyclelifethanLFP(duetoMnresultsinamediumenergydensityandspecificenergyofthedissolution)andhighersensitivitytomoistureandwater[104].battery(lowerthanNMC/NCA).LFPshowsflatvoltagecharac-teristicsinthemiddleSOCrange,whichmakesitdifficulttoBYDcarriedoutresearchonLMFPalreadyin2013buttermin-determinetheexactSOC.However,advancedapproachesincl.atedthedevelopmentin2016duetolimitationsofthemate-AIandmachinelearningalgorithmsmighthelptosolvetherialsintermsofcyclelifeandhighinternalresistance[103].issue[90].Today,industryseemstohavesolvedtheseissuestoasatisfac-torydegreeandconsequentlyvariousbatterycompaniesareLFPisawell-establishedCAMandcurrentlyoneofthemostactivelyworkingonthedevelopmentofLMFPcells.However,widelyusedcathodeactivematerialsforLIBwithanestimatedthetimingofvolumeproductionisuncertainformostcompa-37%marketshare(byvolume)amongCAMs[95].Trendsnies(incl.CALB,JEVE,REPTBATTERO)[106].incell-to-packconceptshaveincreasedtheattractivenessforLFPbatteries,astheenergydensityoftheLFPpackscouldTheChinesecellmanufacturerGotionhasannounceditsapproachthatofNMCpacksduetotheinherentlyhigher"AstroinnoL600"LMFPcellthat,accordingtoGotion,achie-safetyofLFPcellsascomparedtoNMCcells.Althoughthevesaspecificenergyof240Wh/kgandavolumetricenergyenergydensityislower,soistheprice,which,especiallyfordensityof525Wh/landcyclelifeof4,000cyclesatroomthesmallEVsector,isoneofthemostimportantKPIs.LFPtemperatureand1,800cyclesathightemperature[107,108].isparticularlypopularinChina(in2023,morethantwoMassproductionisplannedfor2024[109].SVoltannouncedthirdsofpowerbatteryinstallationsinChinainvolveLFP)[96].theproductionofLMFPbatterieswithaspecificenergyofAnincreasingnumberofcarmanufacturersoutsideChina220Wh/kgandavolumetricdensityof503Wh/l2024[110].arealsoconsideringoralreadyusingLFPbatteriesfortheirAccordingtoreports,Niowillstartsmall-scaleproductionEV[97-100].Hence,itcanbeassumedthatLFPwillcontinuetoofLMFPbatterypacksthatareexpectedtohitthemarketinplayamajorroleintheneartomediumterm(seealsobelow).2024[111].Accordingtotheirannouncements,CATLalreadyAsaresultofthehugecommercialinterestinthismaterial,startedtomassproduceso-calledM3Pbatteriesin2023[112].29IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsTheirmaterialhasprobablyamorecomplexchemicalstructuresmalldevicessuchaselectricbikes,e-scooters,orpowertools,containingadditionalmetalstoMnandFe[103,113].aswellaslow-capacityEVsandinlogisticswherethefocusisonlow-cost[95].ChinaremainsthemajormarketforLMO,LithiumManganeseOxide(LMO)andChinesecathodematerialmanufacturersarethemajorLMOmanufacturers[95,114].Lithiummanganeseoxide(LiMn2O4-LMO)crystallizesinaLithiummanganesenickeloxide(LMNO)spinelstructurethatallowsforLi-iondiffusioninallthreedimensions.Asaconsequence,LMObatteriesexhibitaLithiummanganesenickeloxide(LiMn1.5Ni0.5O4-LMNO;alsorelativelyhighpowercapability[93].Additionally,LMOofferscalledlithiumnickelmanganeseoxide-LNMO)hasstructu-greatersafetythanlayeredoxides,aslessenergyisreleasedatralandchemicalsimilaritieswithLMO[114].Whiletheratiohightemperatures(thermalrunaway),andnocriticalorcostlybetweenNiandMncanbevaried,thematerialLiMn1.5Ni0.5O4ismetalsotherthanLiarerequired.Ontheotherhand,LMOhasofparticularinterest[115].ThismaterialusestheNi2+/Ni4+redoxalowerspecificenergyandenergydensitycomparedtoLFPreactionat4.7-4.75Vvs.Li/Li+.TheMn3+/Mn4+redoxcoupleandNMC/NCACAM(Tables1and2).Astrategytoincreasecouldalsobeused,however,atasignificantlylowerpoten-theenergydensityistoreplacepartoftheMnwithNi(seetialandinalessreproduciblemanner.Therefore,inpracticeLMNOparagraphbelow).onlytheNi2+/Ni4+redoxreactionisusedandtheMnremainsinastableoxidationstate[115].ThebenefitsofthismaterialLMOwasusedasaCAMinthefirstsuccessfulmassmarketarethehighreversiblepotential,theavoidanceofCoandBEV(NissanLeaf)[93].Today,however,itismostlyusedinFigure12:IndustrialactivitiesonnextgenerationFe-andMn-richcathodeactivematerials.Theillustrationisnotexhaustive.Referencescanbefoundinthetextabove.20232024202520262027...2030LFPvariousplayersinvolvedwidemarketadoptionLMFPfurthermassproductionstartsexpected(incl.CALB,Farasis,JEVE,etc.)LMO1234limitedmarketadoptionLMNOvariousplayersinvolvedLMRs5671M3PbatteryCATLCellMaterialApplication2Massproduction;Gotion3Massproduction;SVolt4Small-scaleproduction;Nio5Pilotproduction;Morrow6Commercialproduction;Umicore7Implementationinelectricvehicles30IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapstherequirementofonlymediumquantitiesofNi(comparedbecommercializedsoonandtoachieveamarketshareofsixtohigh-NiNMC/NCA)andtheimprovedenergydensityandpercentby2030[120].cyclingstabilitycomparedtoLMO.ThechallengesfacingLMNOincludethedissolutionofMnLithium-andmanganese-richlayeredoxides(LMRs)(Mn3+ionsindisorderedLMNO(spinel)disproportionateintoMn4+andMn2+ions)[116-118]andsevereinterfacialsidereac-Lithium-andmanganese-richoxides(LMRs,e.g.tionsbetweenLMNOandtheelectrolyteathighvoltageorLi1.1(Ni0.21Mn0.65Al0.04)O2[121])canbeconsideredacompositehightemperature[116],whichleadstocapacityfadingduringofthetwooxidesLi2MnO3andLiMO2(withM=Mn,Ni,Co,cyclingandalimitedcyclelife[115].SpecificelectrolytesareFe,etc.)andcanbewrittenasxLi2MnO3·(1-x)LiMO2[122].neededwithhighchemicalstability,evenatthehighpoten-VariouscombinationsoftransitionmetalsarepossibleinLMRs,tials,toenablelongcycleandcalendarlife(oxidationpotentialssuchasLi1.2Ni0.13Mn0.54Co0.13O2[123]orLi1.1(Ni0.21Mn0.65Al0.04)O2ofelectrolytes>5Vvs.Li/Li+).Otherstrategiestoovercome[121].Theadvantageofthesematerialsisthehighoperatingthesechallengesincludereducingparticlesize,optimizingpotentialcombinedwiththehighspecificcapacity,leadingtotheparticlemorphology,dopingandsurfacemodificationstobatterieswithhighenergydensityandspecificenergy(Table1).reduceinterfacialsidereactionsbetweentheLMNOsurfaceandliquidelectrolytes[115,118].Someofthechallengesincludeasignificantvoltageandcapa-cityfadingduringcycling,whichisattributedtostrain-inducedAsof2023,LMNO-basedLIBarenotyetonthemarket.structuralinstabilitiesinthecompositestructureduring(de-)MorrowBatteriesisplanningtostartpilotproductionoflithiation[123].Furthermore,LMRsexhibitalimitedrateper-prismaticLMNOcellsattheirCustomerQualificationLineinformanceduetothepoorelectronicconductivityoftheman-Q12024[119].Greatermarketpenetrationisexpectedtotakeganese-basedoxide[122].Thesechallengescouldbeovercomesometime.Nevertheless,themarketintelligencefirmBench-withoptimizedmorphologydesignandbulkdesign,aswellmarkMineralIntelligenceexpectsLMNObatterychemistriestoasbyapossiblesurfacemodification[123].Table1:TypicalvaluerangesforrelevantparametersofFe-andMn-richcathodeactivematerials[104,121,123,125-129]:LFPLMFPLMOLMNOLMRs148146>300Theoreticalspecific170170capacity(mAh/g)Practicalspecific150-160135-16090-120115-125>200capacity(mAh/g)Operatingpotential3.2-3.53-5-4.1;3.84.04.7<4.4(VvsLi/Li+)Materialcost8-1510-16(estimate)8-1512-20(estimate)20-30(EUR/kg)(estimate)Massmar-ImprovedenergyLimitedmarketNotonthemarketyet,Commentketmaterialdensitycomparedadoption,mostlybutpilotproductionCurrentlystilllowTRL;usedwidelytoLFP;marketinsmall-scaleplanned;capacitycapacityfadingrepre-inEVadoptionplannedapplicationsfadingrepresentssentsbiggestchallengeshortlybiggestchallenge31IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsIn2023,thetechnologyreadinesslevelofLMRiscurrentlycapacityretentionandlowerthermalstabilityofNMCswithstillratherlowandbatteriesusingtheseCAMarenotyethigh-Nicontent[132].Theultimategoalofachieving100%onthemarket.UmicorehasannouncedthatitisaimingforNi-content(LNO),whichgivesthehighesttheoreticalcapacity,thecommercialproductionofaso-calledHLM(highlithium,facessimilarchallengessuchasmechanicalinstabilityduringmanganese)CAManditsimplementationinelectricvehiclescyclingleadingtocracksintheparticles,limitedthermalstabili-by2026[124].ty,(electro-)chemicalinstabilityaswellasthesynthesiswithaperfectlayeredstructureandstoichiometry[135].Lithiumnickelmanganesecobaltoxides(NMC)Strategiestoovercomechallengesincludesurfacecoatingsandlithiumnickeloxide(LNO)tosuppresssidereactions,gradientparticles,doping(variouselementsarepossible,incl.AlwhichthenleadstoNMCA,seeLithiumnickelmanganesecobaltoxides(LiNi1−x−yMnxCoyO2-below),andmorphologyoptimization,suchasusingsingle-NMC)andlithiumnickeloxide(LiNO2–LNO)belongtothecrystalCAMparticlesforlayeredoxideCAMwiththehighestclassoflayeredtransitionmetaloxides,asdoeslithiumcobaltNi-content,toincreasehigh-voltagestabilityandtopreventoxide(LiCoO2-LCO)whichisfrequentlyusedinconsumertheformationofcracksthusmitigatingdegradation[132].devices.InNMC,theNi-ionsarethedominantredox-acti-vespecies.TheCo3+ionsincreasetheelectronicandionicLithiumnickelcobaltaluminumoxides(NCA)andconductivityandtheMn4+ionshelptomaintainthermalandLithiumnickelmanganesecobaltaluminumoxidesstructuralstability[122,130,131].Thefirstcommerciallyrele-(NMCA)vantNMCmaterialLiNi1/3Mn1/3Co1/3O2(NMC111)exhibitshighelectrochemicalperformanceandsafetyandwasusedinsomeLikeNMCmaterials,lithiumnickelcobaltaluminumoxidesoftheearlybatteryelectricvehicles[131].ApartfromNMC111,(LiNi1−x−yCoxAlyO2-NCA)belongtotheclassoflayeredtransiti-variouscompositionsarepossible.Inanefforttoincreasetheonmetaloxides.Also,inNCA,theNi-ionsaretheredox-activeenergydensityofthebatteriesandreducetheamountofthespecies;CoandAlarenotactivelyparticipatingintheelectro-expensiveandcriticalCo,theNi-contenthasbeenincreasedinchemicalreaction.TheCo3+ionsincreasetheelectronicandNMCmaterials.NMCswithlowtomediumNi-content(relativeionicconductivityandtheAl3+ionsarestabilizingthesystem.contentof30%to<70%NiinrelationtoMnandCo)haveSimilartoNMCmaterials,NCAsexhibitgoodperformanceatbeenandareincreasinglybeingreplacedbyNMCswithhighareasonablecostinallrelevantparameters,suchasenergyNi-content(e.g.NMC811).Thecurrenttrendistowardultra-densityandspecificenergy,rateperformance,calendarandhighNilayeredoxideswithrelativeNi-contentsofmorethancyclelife.Atthesametime,similarchallengesexist,including90%(e.g.NMC9.5.5)[132].structuralinstabilitiesduringcyclingleadingtocapacityfadingandlimitingthecyclelife,aswellaslimitedthermalstabilityTheadvantageofNMCovermostotherCAMliesinitsgood[133].AnincreaseinNicontent,whichisaimedatincreasingperformanceinthemostrelevantparameters,suchasenergytheenergydensity,increasesthesestructuralinstabilitiesanddensityandspecificenergy,rateperformance,calendarandleadstocapacityfade,whichreducescyclelife.Strategiestocyclelifeandcosts.Becauseofthisbalanceofgoodper-overcomethesechallengesincludesurfacecoatingstosup-formanceindicators,NMCmaterialshavebecomethemostpresssidereactionsanddoping[133].widelyusedCAMinelectricvehicles[93,95].ThechallengesfacingNMCmaterialsarethelimitedthermalThemovetolithiumnickelmanganesecobaltaluminumoxidesstabilityandtheirthermalrunawaybehaviorthatmakesatight(LiNi1−x−y−zMnxCoyAlzO2-NMCA)byaddingsmallamountsofBMScontrolnecessary[133].Furthermore,Mn-iondissolutionMnresultsinbettercyclingstability,lowerintrinsicvolumeandsurfacestructuralreconstruction,aswellasstructuralvariationandhighermechanicalstrengthcomparedtoNMCinstabilitiesduringcyclinglimitthecyclelife[134].Thesechal-andNCAwithasimilarlyhighNi-content[134,136].lengesintensifywithincreasingNi-contentresultinginlower32IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsTable2:TypicalvaluerangesforrelevantparametersofNi-basedcathodeactivematerials[125,136,147,148].LowtomediumNi(30HighNiUltra-highNiNCA(>80%Ni)to<70%Ni)(70to<90%Ni)(≥90%Ni)190->20023-30Theoreticalspecific150-190170to>200275-280capacity(mAh/g)>200Practicalspecific22-30capacity(mAh/g)Generalcomment:190to>200OperatingpotentialcostdependsonNi-/Co-(VvsLi/Li+)contentandparticle23-3025-32(estimate)Materialcostmorphology(EUR/kg)IncreasingenergydensityanddecreasingstabilitywithincreasingNi-contentCommentFigure13:IndustrialactivitiesonnextgenerationNi-richcathodeactivematerials.Theillustrationisnotexhaustive.Referencescanbefoundinthetextabove.20232024202520262027...2030LowtomediumNivariousplayersinvolvedwidemarketadoptioninthepast;slowlyfadingoutMediumtohighNivariousplayersinvolvedwidemarketadoption,likelytoplayamajorroleintheshorttomediumfutureHighestNi(≥90%Ni)1236NCAvariousplayersinvolvedwidemarketadoption;increasingNi-content(>90%)NMCA4512Ultra-highNi;CATLforNioCellMaterialApplication3ImplementationofNMC955inEV;Toyota4Market-readybattery;Leclanché5StartofNMCAmassproduction;LGChem6120kilotonsannualproduction;LGChemIndustrializationofhigh-NiCAMchemistries[9,93].NCA-basedbatteriesarebeingproducedmainlybyPanasonicandSamsungSDI[95].ThesebatteriesNMCCAMarecurrentlythemostwidelyusedCAMinEVareusedforelectricvehicles(TeslaisusingNCAbatteriesfromapplication,ifthedifferenttypesofNMCarecombined[9,93].Panasonicfortheirlong-rangemodels)andpowertools.WhereasearlyEVsusedNMC111,inrecentyearstherehasbeenashifttoNMC532,NMC622andNMC811,andmediumtoTheindustryismovingtowardsevenhigherNi-contents,bothhighNi-contentarecurrentlythemostcommonlyusedNMCsforNMCandNCA(e.g.Ni>90%)toincreasetheenergy33IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsdensityandthusrangeoftheEVs.Suchultrahigh-NiNMCsBlendsofdifferentCAMandNCAsareexpectedtogainsignificantmarketsharesbytheendofthisdecade[132].MajorcellproducerssuchasSKThecathodeactivematerialsdiscussedabovecanalsobeusedOnandSamsungSDIarealreadyproducingcellswithultra-asblends,i.e.mixturesofdifferentCAM.Thegoalistocombi-high-Nicontent[137].CATLhasannouncedtheproductionofnetheadvantagesofthedifferentmaterials,whilemitigatingbatterieswithanultra-highnickeltechnologythatwasinitiallytheirlimitations[149].AnexampleofsuchaCAMblendistheplannedtogointomassproductionin2025[138].Leclanchélow-capacityEV"HongguangMINI"thatusesablendofLMOannouncedthatitwillmanufactureNMCA-basedbatteriesandNMCwhichcanprovideagoodenergydensity(NMC)withaNi-contentofaround90percentusingawater-basedandhighpowerandsafety(LMO)atthesametime[95].Otherproductionprocess.TheyareplanningforthesebatteriestobecombinationsmayinvolveLFP(lowcost,safety)andNMC(highavailableonthemarketin2024[139].LGChemannouncedthespecificenergy)orblendsofCAMofsimilarstoichiometry(e.g.constructionofacathodemanufacturingplantintheUSAthatNMC)butwithdifferentparticlepropertiessuchasparticleissupposedtomassproduceNMCAmaterialstartingin2025sizeorsingle-crystalandpoly-crystalmorphology.Thiscan[140].However,LGChemislikelytoproduceNMCAearlierimprovethevolumeutilizationinthecathode(highercompac-throughitsjointventurewithHuayouCobaltinSouthKoreation)orcompensateforthelossofstabilityandperformanceat[141].Both,TeslaandGMareexpectedtobeusingNMCAcellsdifferenttemperaturesorhighchargestates.fromLGES(thatislikelytousetheNMCAfromLGChem)forautomotiveapplications[142].BMW,GMandToyotaplantoWiththetransitiontoSi-basedanodes(seesection3.1.3),implementultra-high-Nitechnologyin2025,2026and2028otherblendsofCAMandLi-containingmaterialsmayalsorespectively[143-145].Otherindustryeffortsaremovinginthebecomerelevant.ThelossofLiduetoSEIbuild-upinhigh-directionofcompletelyeliminatingCointheNMCchemistry,capacityanodematerialssuchasSiinthefirstcyclecanbesuchasSVOLT’scobalt-freecathodematerialNMX[146].considerableandreducestheLiavailableforthereversiblereactionandthusthecellcapacity.BlendsofCAMandLisac-rificialsaltsinthecathodecancounteractthis.TheLisacrificialsaltsdonotprovideareversiblecapacityandonlyactduringformationorinthefirstcycles.34IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.1.2.CathodeMaterialProductionTheincreasingdemandfromcarmanufacturersisdrivingtheCapacitiesexpansionofCAMcapacityforward.FreyrBatteryisacom-panythatspecializesincleanbatterysolutions.ThecompanyCathodeactivematerialproductionismainlyfocusedonAsianhasstartedtheconstructionofitsfirstfactoryinNorwayandcountries,especiallyonthethreelargestplayers:China,Korea,hasannounceditsfurtherexpansionplansinFinlandandtheandJapan.However,anincreasingnumberoflargecompaniesUS.TheyplantohaveaCAMproductioncapacityof90kilo-andstart-upshaveannouncedplanstoestablishorexpandtonsperyearby2025and173kilotonsperyearby2030[151].CAMproductioncapacityinEuropeandNorthAmerica[95].Northvolthassimilarambitions,withtheconstructionoftwoProductionfacilitiesaremainlyforlithiumironphosphate(LFP)productionfacilitiesinSwedenandoneinCanada.Theyplanandnickel-manganese-cobalt(NMC)(seeFigure14)[150].tohaveaCAMproductioncapacityof312kilotonsperyearin2028[152](seeTable3).TheestablishmentofatotalcapacityThelargestCAMproducersworldwideareprimarilylocatedof980kilotonsperyearofCAMproductioninEuropeby2028inChina.ThebiggestoftheseareShenzenDynanonic,Hunanhasbeenannounced.YunengandLOPAL.ThosethreemainlyfocusonLFPproduc-tionandhadacumulativeCAMproductioncapacityofmoreSimilartoEurope,theCAMproductioncapacityinNorththan1,000kilotonsperyear(seeTable3).TheyplantoexpandAmericaiscurrentlylow,butsomecompaniesplantoincreasetheirCAMproductioncapacityoverthenextfewyears.it.Forexample,thereareBASF,Ecopro,Posco,andUmicore;DynanonicandHunanYunengeachplantoreachanannualadditionally,therearesmallerstart-upslikeReedwoodcapacityofalmost900kilotonsperyearby2028[95,106].MaterialsandMitraChem.RedwoodMaterialsspecializesinTheonlycompaniesoutsideChinawithsimilarcapacitiesarerecyclingandexpectsaCAMproductioncapacityofaroundSouthKorean.L&F,Posco,andEcoprohaveacombinedannual71kilotonsperyearby2025and430kilotonsannuallybyCAMproductioncapacityofmorethan400kilotons,partof2030[153].Basedonannouncements,weexpectatotalwhichislocatedinChina[95].In2028,theyareexpectedtoproductioncapacityofabout700kilotonsperyearby2028haveanannualproductioncapacityofalmost1,000kilotons,inNorthAmerica.partlyproducedinnewproductionfacilitiesinEuropeandNorthAmerica.Overall,theworldwideannualCAMproduc-TheSituationintherestoftheworldtioncapacityiscurrently3,700kilotons,ofwhich78%isproducedinChina.TheCAMproducersarepreparingtofaceAfewmorecountriesareactiveorplantobecomeactiveinthesignificantincreaseindemandthatisexpectedovertheCAMproduction,mainlyIndiaandIndonesia.Indiawantstonextfewyears.Until2028theworldwidecapacitywillgrowtobecomeindependentintermsofCAMproduction[154].Untilabout8,350kilotons,59%ofwhichwillbeproducedinChinarecently,therewasnoCAMproductioninIndia,buttheyplan(seeFigure14).tohaveanannualproductionof75kilotonsin2028.Indonesiaisoneofthelargestnickelproducersworldwide.Untilrecently,ThesituationinEuropeandNorthAmericahowever,theymainlyexportedthenickel,afactwhichtheIndonesiangovernmentwantstochange.TheyarethereforeAfewcompanieshaveannouncedtheirplanstoestablishCAMrestrictingtheexportofnickel,sothatlargecompaniesnowproductioncapacityinEurope.ApartfromlargecompanieshavetolookintoestablishingCAMproductionfacilitiesinlikeBASF,Ecopro,andUmicore,therearealsosomesmallerIndonesia[155].TheyareexpectedtohaveanannualCAMcompaniesandstart-upslikeFreyrBatteryandNorthvolt.productioncapacityof160kilotonsby2028[156].35IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsTable3:Majorcathodematerialproducersandproductioncapacitiesin2023and2028(announcements).:includingpartsofBTR(LOPALboughteverythingLFP-relatedfromBTR);:announced/future.CompanyHQLocationsMaterialsProductioncapacityProductioncapacity20232028NorthvoltSESE,CANMC(kilotonsperyear)(kilotonsperyear)PoscoKRCN,KR,CANMC,LMO0312L&FKRKRNMC,LMO128264UmicoreBEKR,CN,PL,BE,CANMC,LCO131281EcoproKRKR,HU,CANMC,NCA149648EaspringCNCN,FI,INLCO,NMC,LMFP179422NingboRonbayCNCN,KRNMC,NCA,LFPLOPALCNCN,IDLFP246566HunanYunengCNCNLFP253348ShenzhenDynanonicCNCNLFP,LMFP270440317900540870Figure14:Planned(announced)cathodematerialproductioncapacitiesbasedonplantlocation(left)andtype(right).9,000Capacity(kilotons)9,0008,000Capacity(kilotons)8,0007,0007,0006,0006,0005,0005,0004,0004,0003,0003,0002,0002,0001,0001,000002020202220242026202820202022202420262028CNKRJPEURNCMNCANCAorNCMLFPLMFPUSCAROWLCOLMO36IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.1.3.AnodeMaterialswaterpollution[161].Therefore,oneofthebiggestchallengesinusinggraphiteinbothcaseswillbethereductionofproduc-GraphiteisstillthestateoftheartasanodematerialforLIBtion-relatedenvironmentalimpacts.Amongotherthings,theandwillprobablyretainthispositionfortheforeseeablefuture.newEUbatteryregulation,aswellasthestrictenvironmentalDespitetheadvantagesofthematerial,whichareitslowregulationsinChina,themainmanufacturingcountry,arecostandhighstoragecapacity,thereisanincreasingdemandlikelytoactasmotivatingfactorsfortheindustry[70,161].forhigherenergydensityandfastchargingcapability,whichcannotbeachievedwithgraphiteoronlyatgreatexpense.AInindustry,thistopicisalsobeingaddressedinpartthroughmajorfocusofindustrialdevelopmentisthereforeontheusethedevelopmentofnewprocesses.TheEstonianstart-upofsilicon-basedmaterials."UpCatalyst",forexample,isworkingontheconversionofCO2fromindustrialprocessesintographiteandothercarbonNaturalandsyntheticgraphiteproductsandclaimstowanttoscaleuptheprocessby2030[162].OtheractorssuchasCarbonscapefromNewZealandorAlthoughgraphitehasbeenusedasanodematerialinLIBforKibaranResourcesfromTanzaniaareworkingongraphitiza-morethan30years,thematerialanditsproductionhavenottionprocessesforbiomass[163]andtheuseoflesshazardousreachedtheirfinalstageofdevelopment.Inprinciple,naturalchemicalsinthepurificationofnaturalgraphites[164].graphites(NG)canbeextractedinminesandsyntheticgraphi-tes(SGorAG)canbeproducedinhigh-temperatureprocessesInadditiontotheadaptationofstartingmaterialsandproduc-fromorganicprecursorssuchastar.Bothtypesofmaterialaretionprocesses,graphitesarealsobeingfurtherdevelopedatusedinbatteries,althoughtheuseofsyntheticgraphitesforthemateriallevel.Althoughcommerciallyavailablegraphiteselectricmobilityhasgainedgroundinrecentyears.Insynthe-alreadyalmostreachthetheoreticallypossiblestoragecapaci-ticproduction,thepropertiesofthematerialcanbemuchty,challengesstillexistintheareasofservicelife,fast-chargingbettertailoredtotheapplicationrequirements.However,withcapabilityandtheirreversiblelossesduringcellformationthatincreasingdemandsformaterialswiththelowestpossibleareassociatedwiththebuild-upofasolidelectrolyteinterpha-CO2footprint,naturalgraphitescouldalsoregainimportance:se(SEI).Dependingontheprocess,miningmethodorstartingmaterialandenergymix,theCO2emissionsofsyntheticallyproducedOneofthemainapproachestochangethematerialpropertiesgraphitecanbesignificantlyhigherthanthoseofnaturalgra-istotunetheparticlesizeandmorphology.NGsoftenoccurphiteobtainedunderfavorableconditions[157-160].However,asflakegraphite,sometimesasmicrocrystallinegraphite.Typi-theproductionofnaturalgraphiteinbatteryqualityalsohascally,thematerialsarespheroidizedforuseinbatteries,whichastrongenvironmentalimpact.Thepurificationprocessinimprovesperformancecharacteristicsandlifetime.Therightparticular,whichmostlyrequireshydrofluoricacidorextremelychoiceofsizedetermines,amongotherthings,theLikinetichightemperatures,canhavestronglocalimpactsonairandoftheanode.SmallgraphiteparticleshavefastLiintercalationkineticsandalongservicelife,butcauselowinitialcoulombTable4:Propertiesofanodeactivematerials.GraphiteGraphite-siliconSilicondominatedLithiumTitanatesandcomposites3,579NiobatesTheoreticalspecific>3600.223,842175,400360(chargedcell)0.1-0.220~1.5capacity(mAh/g)Operatingpotential>10>3080-200(metalcost)>150.1~300Wh/kg,>300-500Wh/kg,>300-400Wh/kg,70-150Wh/kg,(VvsLi/Li+)~800Wh/l>900Wh/l[171-174]1,000Wh/l150-250Wh/lMaterialcostdemonstrated/[169,170]claimsclaimsdemonstrated,5-9claimsclaims(EUR/kg)Practicalperformance<280Wh/kg,oncelllevel<750Wh/lCommentdemonstrated37IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsFigure15:IndustrialactivitiesonnextgenerationSi-basedanodematerialsandotheranodematerials[180,181,183,184,193-196].Theillustrationisnotexhaustive.20232024202520262027...2030GraphiteStatusQuo,2023widemarketadoption,likelytoplayamajorroleintheshorttomediumfutureGraphite/Sior9Si-doinated15Other248367101Group146Lilium/CustomCellsCellMaterialApplication2SiLa7Amprius0.5GWh3Enovoix8SiLa/Mercedes4IonicMT9Morrow/EchionXNO5Panasonic/Nexeon10Nyoboltefficiency(CE)duetotheirhighsurfacearea[165].MostCurrently,itisbeingusedasanadditivetoimprovegraphite-graphitesusedinbatteriesarethereforeadditionallycoated.basedanodes,butinthefuturetheimportanceofSiisexpec-Acarboncoatingisusuallyused,whichinfluencestheSEIfor-tedtoincrease.TherangeofpossibleSimaterialsisverywide,mationandthusincreasestheinitialCEandimprovesthecyclerangingfrom2Dor3DSistructurestocarbon/siliconcompo-lifeandthermalbehavior.Othersurfacemodificationssuchassites,whichcanconsistofawidevarietyofcarbonmaterialstargetedoxidationcanalsoimproveproperties.suchasgraphite,CNTsandamorphouscarbons,aswellasawidevarietyofSimaterialssuchassphericalparticlesorfibers.ThesemeasureshoweverdonotaffectthebulkpropertiesofAccordingly,thecompositescanconsistofcarbonmatricesgraphite.Otherstrategies,especiallyforincreasingthefast-withembeddedSi,mixturesofSiandcarbonparticles,carbonchargingcapabilityofthematerial,useetchingprocesses,forcoatingsforSiparticles,orotherconfigurations[165].example,tocreateporesinthegraphiteandthuscreatenewLitransportchannels,oraimatproducingso-called"mildlyThemainchallengesinusingSiarerelatedtoitshighchemicalexfoliatedgraphites",i.e.chemicallymodifiedgraph-iteswithreactivityincontactwithcommonelectrolytesandthelargeslightlyincreasedspacingbetweengraphenelayers,whichvolumechangewhenforminganalloywithLi.ThereactivitycansignificantlyimproveLikineticsandstoragecapabilitywiththeelectrolyteleadstohighirreversiblelossesduringcell[167,168].formationandathickSEI,whichcanbreakduetothelargechangeinvolumeduringcyclization.Intheparticlebulk,theSiliconincompositesandasastand-alonematerialvolumechangesalsoleadtohighstresses,whichcancauseparticlebreakageorlossofcontact.SiliconisusedasananodematerialinhighenergyLIBduetoPossiblesolutionsinvolvecoatingorsurfacemodificationofitshighcapacityandfavora-blevoltagecomparedtoLi/Li+.theSiparticles.SiOxmaterials,forexample,offeraLi-Sioxide38IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsmatrixsurroundingtheSidomainswhichismuchlessreactiveandlifetime.By2024,materialproductionistobescaledupto[175].Otherapproachesusecoatingswithcarbonorconduc-thekilotonscale[189].MorrowBatteriesisalreadyapotentialtive,flexibleor"self-healing"polymers[176,177].Si-basedEuropeancustomerthatwouldliketointegratethematerialprelithiatedanodematerialsareincreasinglybeingdevelopedintospecialbatterycells[190].TheUKcompanyNyoboltispreciselytocompensatefortheLilossassociatedwithirreversi-workingonasimilarclassofmaterial.Productionistobeblereactions.Fullcelllevelcapacityandcyclingstabilitycanbeestablishedby2024[191].Toshiba,alargeandestablishedsignificantlyincreasedbyusingsuchconcepts,butthemethodcompanyinthebatterysector,isalsopursuingthistopic[192].requiresnewandadditionalprocessstepsinmaterialproduc-tion[178,179].SimilarlytothemultitudeofpossibleSianodes(e.g.,withdiffe-3.1.4.AnodeMaterialProductionrentSitocarbonratio,particlesizeandmorphology,manu-Capacitiesfacturingprocess,etc.),avarietyofplayershaveaddressedthetopic.Establishedmanufacturers,especiallyfromChina,JapanGlobalproductioncapacitiesforanodeactivematerials,especi-andSouthKorea,arescalingtheirproductionsforalreadyallygraphite,arestronglyfocusedonChina.Chinahasoneofcommercializedornear-marketconceptslikeSiOx[95].Specificthelargestdepositsofnaturalgraphite,withthemaindepositscapacitiesofover1,400mAh/gareachievedwiththematerial.locatedinInnerMongoliaandHeilongjiangProvince[197].Comparedtomanyotherdeposits,certaindepositsinChinaAnumberofstart-ups,especiallyfromtheUSA,areworkingcanbeconsidered"super-large",makingtheirdevelopmentonverynewmaterials,someofwhichrequirenewmanufactu-economicallyveryadvantageous.Althoughtheproductionofringprocesses.Forexample,Group14planstostartindustrialartificialgraphiteisnotsostronglylinkedtohavinglocalaccessproductionofitssilicon-carbonnano-compositematerialintorawmaterials,productioncapacitiesarestillheavilyconcen-2024[180].ThetechnologyofSiLaNanotechnologiesseemstratedinChina.tobebasedonmulti-layerSimaterialsandisalsoexpectedtobebroughttoindustrialproductionin2024.By2026,theSomeofthelargestproducersforbothtypesofgraphiteinmaterialisexpectedtobeusedinEVs,specificallyintheelec-ChinaareBTRwithlargeplantsinShenzhen,TianjinandtricG-ClassfromMercedesBenz[181].ThecompanyAmpriusHuizhouandJixiShanshanandShanghaiPutailaiwithproduc-Technologiesdevelopscompositematerialscontainingnano-tionbasesinJiangxi.Chinesemanufacturersareplanningtowiresandhaspresentedcelldatawithhighspecificenergyofmassivelyexpandtheirproductioncapacitiesinthenextfew350Wh/kgandwantstostartgiga-scaleproductionin2025years.BTRisbuildingaplantinYunnanwithacapacityof[182,183].TheUK'sNexeonisalsoworkingonneedle-like200kilotonsperyear[198]andinHeilongjiangwithacapacitysilicon.TogetherwithSKCfromSouthKorea,massproductionofupto600kilotonsperyear,mainlyforNG[199].Shanshanistoberealizedby2026[184].Panasonicisonecustomerisbuildingproductionfacilitiesofupto200and300kilotonsalreadywaitinginthewings[185].NeoBatteryfromCanadaperyearforbothAGandNG,inSichuanandYunnanrespecti-isan-otherexampleforaSistart-up.Theyclaimtoachievevely[200].ShanghaiPutailai(Zichen)isbuildinganother>2,500mAh/gwiththeirmaterial[186].Sofar,thereisno100kilotonsperyearinSichuan[201].informationonscale-upplansofthecompany.InEurope,Umicore,amajorplayer,isalsoworkingonthistopic.TheBasedontheseannouncements,ChinacouldevenexpandcompanyreliesonSi/Cmaterials,whichachieveacapacityitsmarketshareinglobalproductioncapacityfrommorethanof>1,000mAh/g[187].Plansforscalinguphave,however,80%atpresenttoalmost90%inthemediumterm.notyetbeenannounced.TheonlyheavyweightproducerofgraphiteanodematerialOtheranodematerialsoutsideChinaistheSouthKoreancompanyPoscowhichope-ratesplantsinSejongandPohang.ThereareexpansionplansEventhoughthesemostlydonothavethehighenergyden-forthePohangplantsinparticular,butthesearesmallerthansitiesofgraphiteandsilicon,otheranodematerialsarestillthoseoftheChinesecompetitors[202,203].Startingfrombeingdeveloped,somewithexcellentperformancecharac-today'sshareofabout4%ofglobalproductioncapacities,teristicsandstability.Amaterialwithhighstructuralandthisvalueshouldneverthelessincreaseslightlyby2030duechemicalstabilityislithiumtitanate(LTO,LixTi5O12)whichhastoPosco'sexpansionplans.beeninuseforalongtime[188].Intheinsertionreaction,aspecificcapacityof175mAh/g,andavolumechangeoflessSituationinEuropeandtheUSthan1%canberealized.ThecompanyEchionfromtheUKisworkingonthecommercializationofniobium-basedanodeIInEurope,too,someproducershaveannouncedthematerialswhicharealsoexpectedtohaveverygoodkineticsestablishmentofproductioncapacities,especiallyforgraphite.39IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsFigure16:Planned(announced)anodematerialproductioncapacitybasedonplantlocation(left)andtype(right).NG:Naturalgraphite,AG:artificialGraphite,NG/AG:unknowntypeofgraphite,Si:Si-basedmaterials,Other:OthercarbonsandLTO.5,000Capacity(kilotons)5,0004,500Capacity(kilotons)4,5004,0004,0003,5003,5003,0003,0002,5002,5002,0002,0001,5001,5001,0001,000500500002020202220242026202820202022202420262028CNKRJPEURNAMROWNGNG/AGAGSiOther(C,LTO)TheseincludeTalga,whichoperatesinSweden,Vianode/announcementsforthedevelopmentofproductioncapacitiesElkemandMineralCommoditiesinNorway,andGrafintecinforgraphiteasananodematerialamounttoabout4millionFinland.Inaddition,theChinesegiantShanghaiPutailaihastonsby2027/2028.Atleast50%ofthisisattributabletothealsotargetedEuropeasaproductionsiteandisplanningacapacitiesofAG.ThetotalgraphitequantitycorrespondstoplantinSweden.TheannouncementsaremainlyrelatedtoNGjustunder4.5TWhofbatterystoragecapacity.andarequitesizeable.BothPutailaiandVianodeareplanningproductioncapacitiesofaround100kilotonsperyearby2030Siliconproductioncapacities[204,205].Theothermanufacturersplanseveraltensofkilo-tonsperyear[206-208].Comparedtothegraphiteproductionplantscurrentlyinoperationandthoseannouncedforthefuture,thedevelop-IntheUSA,therearealsomajoreffortstoincreaseproductionmentofSiproductionasananodematerialistakingplaceoncapacitiesforbatteryanodes,eventhough,asinEurope,thereasmallerscale.Thelargestplantsproducingafewkilotonsperisstillonlyasmallscaleindustryinthisarea.AnumberofyeararecurrentlyoperatedbyBTR,ShanshanandChengdunewbutalsoestablishedplayers,includingNovonix,Epsilon,GuibaofromChinaandDaejoofromSouthKorea.TheseandAnovion,GraphiteOneandSyrah,havepositionedthemselvesotherproducerssuchasShidaShenghuaplantoexpandtheirtobuildplantsforgraphiteproduction[209-216].Mostofcapacitiestoseveraltensofkilotonsperyearinthenextfewtheannouncementsregardingcapacityareforseveraltensofyears[95].Thismeansthatfromabout2027onwardsuptokilotonsperyear.Duetothepressuretolocalizesupplychains300kilotonsperyearofSiOx-basedandotherSi-basedmate-triggeredbytheIRA,somealreadyhavecustomerrelationshipsrialsshouldbeavailableworldwide.With70to80%,ChinawithcellmanufacturerswhowanttousethematerialsintheisalsolikelytoaccountforthemajorityofthemarketshareinUS[211,217].termsofproductioncapacity.TheSouthKoreanmanufacturersDaejoo,Posco,SKMaterialsandothers[95]couldaccountforBasedontheseannouncementsglobalproductioncapa-afuturemarketshareinthiscountry15to20%.Theannoun-citymarketsharesof<1%todayforbothEuropeandthecementsoftheUSmanufacturersSiLa,Amprius,Group14andU.S.couldincreasesignificantlyinthefuture.By2030,bothotherscorrespondtoashareof6to8%[180,181,183].regionscouldreachglobalsharesof5-6%.Intotal,the40IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.1.5.OtherCellComponentsThecompanyLanxess,forexample,hasannounceditsinten-tiontoproduceelectrolytesinGermanybasedonTinci'stech-Electrolytesnology[221].TheSouthKoreancompanyEnchemalreadyrunsafactoryinPolandandhasannouncedtheconstructionofCommonelectrolytesforLIBallconsistofamixtureoforganicasecondelectrolyteproductionplantcapableofproducingsolventsandLisalts.However,theexactcompositionvaries20kilotonperyearelectrolyteinHungary[222].SimilarlygreatlydependingonthecelltypeandcanberegardedasDongwhaalsorunsafactoryinHungarycapableof20kilotonsthecoreIPofthecellandelectrolytemanufacturers.Variousperyear[223].TherearealsomajorexpansionplansforthefluoridatedsaltssuchasLiFSIorLiPO2F2playamajorroleintheUSA.ThemanufacturersEnchemandDongwhaareplanningcurrentdevelopments,which,inadditiontothecommonLiPF6,tobuildfactoriesinatotaloffivestateswithacombinedcandecisivelyinfluencethebehaviouroftheelectrolytesathighcapacityofover300kilotonsperyear[224,225].OtherAsianandlowtemperatures[218].CurrentandfuturedevelopmentssupplierssuchasSoulbrainandShenzhenCapchemalsoseemalsoconcernthestabilityathighcellvoltages>4.2V,whichistobefollowingthistrend[225].alreadystateoftheartinsmartphones(e.g.4.45V)andcouldbecomesointheEVsectorinthefuture.AnothertopicinSeparatorselectrolytedevelopmentiscompatibilitywithSianodes.Here,too,thereareapproachesinvolvingtheuseofadditives,e.g.Industriallyusedseparatorsoftenconsistofaporous,polyole-LiDFBOPorFEC,whichleadtoamorerobustSEIontheparticlefin-basedpolymerlayerandaceramiccoating.Whilethesesurface[219,220].systemshavegoodmechanicalproperties,theyofferlimitedstabilityathightemperatures.Whencellsarethermallyover-ThelargestproductionplantsforelectrolytesareinChina,loaded,thepolymerlayerbeginstoshrink,whichcanleadtowherebythecompaniesTinci,Guotai-HuarongandShenzhenshortcircuitsinthecell.Capchemcurrentlyhavethelargestproductioncapacities.OutsideChina,onlyJapanandSouthKoreahaveotherpro-Thestateoftheartforpolymerseparators,includingapoten-ducerswithrelevantglobalmarketshares.Here,too,themaptialceramiccoating,is10to12µm.Recentfindings[9]indicateofproducersislikelytoshiftinthenextfewyearsasaresultthattheseparatorsareslightlythickerforpouch-typecellsoftheUSIRAandthefurtherdevelopmentofthebattery(~15µm)andthinnerforprismaticorcylindricalcells,mostindustryinEurope.likelyduetothesolidhousingofcylindricalandprismaticcells.Separatorfoilswitharound8µmarecommerciallyavailable.Figure17:ComponentsofLIBcells.Case,sealing,ElectrolytesafetyfeaturesSeparatorCurrentcollector41Binder,additivesIndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsCurrentresearchactivitiesconcerntheuseofotherpolymers,somestudiesrefertothisthicknessaspracticablelimitduetoforinstancethosebasedonpolyimides,PEEKorpolyacryloni-mechanicalstrengthorprocessability.However,somemarkettrile,whichinsomecasescansignificantlyimprovethecriticalanalystsanticipatethataround4µmwillbefeasible,andcer-thermalloadaswellaspropertiessuchaselectrolytewetabilitytainmaterialsuppliersarealreadyofferingthosefoilsforfuture[226,227].Intheindustry,developmentsinrecentyearshavebatterygenerations[233].Afurtherdevelopmenttoreducefocusedonreducingproductioncostsandfurtherreducingfilmweightandvolumeistheuseofmultilayersystems,e.g.ofseparatorlayerthicknesses.CeramiccoatinghasnowbecomeapolymerfilmthinlycoatedonbothsideswithCu[234-236].thestandardintheautomotivesector,withseparatorscoatedSputtering,electroplatinganddensificationprocessesareononeorbothsidesdependingonthecelldesign.Differentusedforthispurpose.Filmswithatotalthicknessof6µmmaterials,e.g.Al2O3orAlO(OH)(Boehmite),areusedforthe(1µmCuperside)havealreadybeenpresentedbytheindus-inorganiccoating.try.Thefutureuseofsuchthinfoilsisconceivableinhigh-energybatterieswithlowpowerrequirements.ThelargestmanufacturersandproductioncapacitiesforseparatorsarecurrentlylocatedinChina.SemCorp,currentlyBindersandconductiveAdditivesthelargestmanufacturer,isplanningcapacityexpansionsinChinaandpotentiallyintheUS.WithitsplantinHungary,Polymer-basedbindersandconductivecarbonsareusedtothecompanynowalsohasaEuropeanproductioncapacityproducemechanicalandstructuralstabilityaswellaselectro-of350millionm²[228].Similarplanshavealsobeenimple-nicconductivityinthebatteryelectrodes.ThechoiceofeithermentedbytheSouthKoreansupplierSKIETechnologies.typeofadditivetypedependsontherequirementsforpowerInPoland,anannualcapacityofmorethan1,000millionm²density,themanufacturingprocessandtheactivematerials.InofseparatorwillbecreatedinseveralexpansionstagesbythetheaqueousprocessingofgraphiteanodesandLFPcathodes,endof2024[229].TheJapanesecompanyAsahiKaseiisalsomixturesofstyrene-butadienerubberandcellulosederivativesplanningexpansiontotheUS[230].Overall,theshareofpro-havebecomeestablishedasbinders.Polyvinylidenefluorideductioncapacitiesoutsidetheestablishedcountriesoforigin(PVDF)isusedinNMP-basedprocessing.FortheestablishmentChina,SouthKoreaandJapanislikelytoincreasesignificantlyofelectronicconductivity,nano-scaleconductiveblacksarestillinthecomingyears.predominantlyused.Moreandmore,specialnanomaterialssuchascarbonnanotubes(CNTs)arebeingusedincommercialCurrentcollectorsLIBs.ThehighconductivityofCNTsandtheir1Dmorpholo-gycanincreasetherobustnessoftheelectrodecomposite,Inadditiontotheirfunctionascurrentconductors,theAlespeciallyforactivematerialswithhighvolumeexpansionsuchandCufoilsusedinLIBalsofunctionasathermalbridgeasSi,andthusincreasetheservicelifeofcells[237].Theusebetweentheelectrodeandthecellandensurethemechani-ofSiintheanodealsoincreasesthedemandsonthebinders,calstabilityoftheelectrodestackorwinding.Inrecentyears,asconventionalbindersoftendonothavesufficientelasticity.therehasbeenacleartrendtowardsreducingthethicknessPossibleapproachesincludetheuseofpropylene-basedbin-ofthefoils,whichhasessentiallybeenimplementedtoders[238]orsupramolecularbinders,andinsomecasesbio-increasetheenergydensityofthecells.Around15µmisbasedmaterials[239].Workisalsobeingdoneoncombiningthestateoftheartforaluminumfoilsonthecathode,withbindersandconductiveadditivesintheformofelectronically10to12µmbeingexpectedforfuturegenerations.Certainconductivepolymerbinders[240].Oneofthemaincriteriamaterialsuppliersalreadyofferaluminumfoilswith10µmfortheirusabilityisthecompatibilityofthematerialswith[231].Forcopperfoilsontheanode,8to10µmarestateofwidelyusedmixing,coatinganddryingprocessesusedintheart.WhileLGChemannouncedthemassproductionofelectrodeproduction.EVpouch-typebatterieswith6µmcopperfoilsin2020[232],42IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.1.6.CellProductionCapacitiesMn-based,theremaining25%couldn’tbeallocatedduetobyChemistryinsufficientinformation.AlthoughtheshareofthesecathodechemistriesinthepredictedglobalcellproductionseemstobeThemaintrendsinthechoiceofcathodematerialscanberelativelystableinthecomingyears,absolutecapacitieswillderivedbyanalyzingtheproductioncapacitiesplannedincreaserapidly.(announced)forLIBcells.Evenifinmanycasesthecathodematerialusedisnotspecified,itcanbeinferredbasedoninfor-Theregionaldifferencesarewell-pronounced,whereascellmationaboutthecellmanufacturerorthepotentialcustomer.productionforLFPplaysamajorroleinChina,thetrendistheAssumptionsweremadereagrdingthemostlikelycathodeoppositeinEurope.IntheUScellproductionannouncementsmaterialsusedtogeneratetheforecastsshowninFigure18.thereisacleardominanceofnickel-basedcathodematerials,TheannouncementswerecategorizedontheonehandbyLFPwhich,inadditiontoNMCincludealargeshareofcellswithandotheriron-basedcathodematerialsandontheotherhandNCAchemistry.bynickel-basedmaterials,suchasNMCandNCA.Thetwoadditionalcategoriesare“othercathodematerials”,includingHowever,theregionaldynamicswithinthisdecaderevealaMn-basedcathodematerials(e.g.LNMO),and“unknown”,formorecomplexpicture:TheshareofLFP-basedcellproductionproductionwherenoreasonableassumptionswerepossible.inEuropeissettoincreaseoverthecomingyears,indicatingthatlow-costbatterycellsarebecomingincreasinglyimportantAccordingtothisassessment,44%oftheglobalcellpro-here.AsimilareffectcanbeobservedintheUS,eveniftheductioncapacitywillbeforNi-basedand26%forFe-basedshareofLFPcellproductioncapacityisonlypredictedtoreachcellchemistriesby2030.Whilelessthan5%areexpectedtoaminimumof8%.(Itshouldbenotedthattheproportionofhaveanalternativecathodechemistry,suchasthosewhichareproductioncapacitywithunknowncellchemistryishigher).Figure18:Planned(announced)cellproductionbyCAMandregion.Announcedproductioncapacity(GWh)3,50020303,000NMC/NCA2,500202220242026202820302,000Fe-based1,5001,000ChinaUSA500Europe0RoW2020NMC/NCAFe-basedOtherUnknown43IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsThissituationcaneasilybetransferredtothecountries/regi-than500GWh.TogetherwithEVE,BYDandCALB,theymakeonswiththelargestplanned(announced)capacitiesforcellsupnearlyhalfoftheexpectedproductioncapacitiesforLFPusingthedifferentcathodeactivematerials:Theproductionbatterycells.ofLFPbatterycellswillbeheavilydominatedbyChina,wherearound90%ofproductioncapacitieswillbelocatedby2025.InthecaseofbatterycellswithNMCcathodes,anAsianHowever,thissharewilldecreasetoaroundtwothirdsbythemanufacturerisalsoexpectedtobethelargestproducerbyendofthedecade,mainlyduetotheincreaseinactivitywithin2030.Nearly500GWhofLGES’splannedcellproductionisEurope.InthecaseofNMCandNCA,thepredictedsharesofestimatedtouseanNMCcathode.Inadditiontothem,CATL,cellproductioncapacitiesinthedifferentcountries/regionsareSKOnandCALBareexpectedtobethemostimportantplay-morediverse,wherebyEuropehasashareofaroundonethirdersbytheendofthedecade.TogethertheymakeuparoundandChinaashareofaroundonequarter.halfoftheexpectedproductioncapacitiesofNMCbatterycellsbythen.NorthvoltcouldbecomethemostimportantThecellmanufacturerswiththelargestproductioncapacitiesEuropeancellmanufacturerinthisfield,followedbyPowerCoforbatterycellswithanLFPoranotheriron-basedCAMallandACC,accordingtotheirrespectiveannouncementsandcomefromChina.By2030CATLcouldpotentiallyestablishPanasonicislikelytobecomethemostsignificantmanufactu-productioncapacitiesforcellsbasedonLFPcathodesofmorererrelyingonNCAcathodes.44IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.2.BatteryCells3.2.1.BatteryCellDesignTrendspathways(lowtortuosity)tofacilitateverythickelectrodescapableofhighC-rates.Ontheotherhand,itiscrucialtoBatterycelldesignconcernstheelectrodelevelandcoversmaintainthemechanicalintegrityoftheelectrode.Adjustedcomponentthicknesses,electrodeporosity,andtheassemblyslurrycastingwithnewsolventsoraddednanoparticlesarefromsinglesheetstostackedorwoundelectrodesuptothethemostmaturetechnologies,whiletemplate-basedconceptschoiceofcellformatandsize.(suchassaltorice),additivemanufacturingconcepts,orlaserablationmaybecomemorerelevantinthefuture[247].HEelectrodes-anengineeringtrade-offbetweenElectrodeassemblyenergydensityandpowerdensityTheLIBengineeringprocessrequiresseveraldesignchoicesThetypeofelectrodeassemblyusedinthecellhousinghasafromelectrodecompositiontocoatingweightsandthick-stronginfluenceonoverallcellperformance,andthefinalelec-nesses,electrodeporosities,currentcollectorsandconnec-trodegeometryshouldbeascloseaspossibletothecellhou-tiontags,theseparatorandtheelectrolyte.Thesechoicessingtoavoidanydeadvolume.Whiletherearetwoprincipalarecomplicatedbythefactthatmaximumenergydensitytechniques,namely(1)windingofcontinuouselectrodesandandhighpowerdensityoftenhaveopposingrequirements.(2)stackingofpre-cutelectrodes,inpractice,thereareseveralOptimizingpowerdensity,forexample,requiresminimizingcombinationssuchasZ-foldingorstack-winding.Thefirsttech-anycellcomponent'selectronic,ionic,andthermalresistance.nique,electrodewinding,ismostcommonamongprismaticSuitablemeasuresherecompriselowercoatingweightsandandcylindricalcells.Thewindingprocessandtheequipmentthicknesses,higherelectrodecoatingporosities,thickercurrentusedarehighlyoptimized,wellestablished,veryaccurateandcollectors,thickerandwidertags,orincreasedsharesofhighlyfast.Thesecondtechnique,stackingandZ-folding,isusedconductivecarbon.Incontrast,optimizingenergydensityinpouchcells.Thebiggestchallengehereistocombinefullyrequiresmaximizingtheratioofactivematerialtothetotalautomatedhandlingandpositioningaccuracyathighprocesselectrodevolume.Suitablemeasuresherearetheoppositeofspeeds.Industryannouncementsimplythatfuturegenerationsthosementionedabovetooptimizepowerdensityandincludeofprismaticandpouchcellswillbeassembledusingsingle-increasedcoatingweightsandthickness,lowerelectrodecoa-sheetstackingorstack-windingwhilewindingconceptswilltingporosities,thinnercurrentcollectors,thinnerandsmallercontinuetobeusedincylindricalcells[248].tags,orminimalsharesofconductivecarbons.OEMsandcellsuppliersmustfindtherighttrade-offbetweenvehiclerangeBalancingsingle-andmulti-formatstrategiesgiventhelimitedinstallationspace(energydensity)andfast-chargingcapability(powerdensity).Cylindricalcells,hardcaseprismaticcellsandpouchbagcellsarethethreeformatsusedinlargeLIBs.Consolidatingcellfor-AutomotiveHE-LIBshaveatypicalcoatingthickness(single-matsanddevelopingcommonstandardsarewell-establishedsided)of50to80μmforbothcathodesandanodes[9,241-approachesintheautomotiveindustrytoleverageeconomies243].ForHEcathodechemistries,graphiteanodesmaybeofscaleorfacilitatemulti-sourcingstrategies.Earlyon,thecloseto100µmtosustainanappropriateanodetocathodeGermanAssociationoftheAutomotiveIndustry(VDA)andthebalancingratio(N/P).IncreasingcoatingthicknesspromisesGermanInstituteforStandardization(DIN)proposedseveralhigherenergydensitiesandcostsavings[244],butiscurrentlyindustry-widestandards.Theseincludeprismaticcellswithunexploited.Between100and150µmareconsideredtobetheHEV1,PHEV2,HEV1,HEV2,orBEV1toBEV4formatandpractical,achievablelimitsforsingle-sidedcoatingthicknessespouchcellswiththeHEV,PHEV1,PHEV2,orBEVformat(DIN[242,245].Recentfindings[9]suggestthatLFP-typecellstend91252:2016-11).However,manufacturersandalliancegroupstobethickerthantheirNickel-richcounterpartsandatthehavealsostarteddevelopingandusingmodifiedformatsupperendofthespectrum,andaremostlikelytocompensatethataretailoredtotheirspecificrequirementsandtargets.thelowercapacity,probablyfacilitatedbytheirhigherintrinsicMostOEMscombinesingleandmulti-formatstrategies(cf.safety.Forthesereasons,itislikelythatfutureHE-LIBswillbeFigure19),andmosthaveselectedamainformat.Whilesomeequippedwithslightlythickerelectrodes.Finalcoatingporosi-manufacturersaimtoestablishtheirowncellproduction(owntiesforautomotiveHE-LIBstendtodecreaseslightlytowardcompanies,jointventures,start-upinvestments),othersare20%[9],with10to40%referencedasatypicalLIBopti-seekingcooperationwithestablishedcellsuppliers.Therearemizationcorridor[246].Severalconceptsaimtoincreasethehighexpectationsandobvioustrendstowardcellswithhardactiveelectrodesurfaceandshortenthelithium-iontransport45IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsFigure19:Roadmaponcurrentandplannedcellformatsperalliancegroup/OEM[249-257].Theillustrationisnotexhaustive.20232030VWGroupPrismaticCylindricalPouch(VW,Audi,Bentley,Skoda,Seat,Cupra,Porsche)RNMGroup(Renault,Dacia,Nissan,Infiniti,Mitsubishi)BMWGroup(BMW,Mini,Rolce-Royce)GM(GMC,Chevrolet,Cadillac,Corvette,Buick,Pontiac,Hummer)DaimlerAG(MercedesBenz,Smart,Maybach)Toyota(Toyota,Lexus,Scion,Daihatsu)Hyundai(Hyundai,KIA,Genesis)MazdaMotorCorp.Ford(Ford,Lincoln)Stellantis(Fiat,Chrysler,AlfaRomeo,Jeep,Dodge,Opel,Peugeot,Citroen,Ram,Abarth,DSAutomobiles)Suzuki,SubaruTesla(Suspected)add.format(Suspected)mainformathousing,i.e.,prismaticorcylindricalcells.Despitethis,theandatruerenaissanceofprismaticcellsinthelastfewyears.announcementsmadeindicatethatallthreecellformatsareOntheonehand,therearethinner(12-36mm)andsmallerlikelytoretainsubstantialmarketshares.cells(uptoaround400mm)thatprimarilyfeaturehigh-energynickel-richcathodes(mainlyNMC).ThisresultsinTailoredprismaticcellsandblade-typecellsaveragesingle-cellcapacitiesofupto100Ahduetohigherenergyactivematerialsandoptimization.Ontheotherhand,Largeprismaticcellsfeaturehighsingle-cellcapacities,goodtherearelarger(400-900mm)andthickercells(upto80mm)mechanicalstabilityanddurabilityduetothesolidalumi-withaveragesingle-cellcapacitiesofaround150Ahthatpri-numhousing,easyinstallationandhighpackingdensity,butmarilyfeatureLFPcathodes,especiallysince2019.Inparticular,challengingcoolingcharacteristics.Thereisawiderangeofthereisatransitiontowardcell-to-pack(C2P)conceptswithutilizedcellgeometrieswithintheglobalautomotiveindustry.counter-tabdesignsand,thus,greaterintegrationofcellsintoOverall,verylargeprismaticcellsfrom2,000to3,500mlhavethevehiclechassis(seealsochapter3.3).ThisC2Pconceptismostlydisappeared,whileanewcorridorhasrecentlyformedtypicallyassociatedwitheitherhighvolumeorverylongcellsbetween500and1,500ml[9].Thus,singleprismaticcells(uptoaround900mm)andpromisescostadvantagesduehavenotgrowninvolumebuthaveratherbeentailoredtothetohigherprocessefficiencyandfewercomponents,andper-spaceavailableinthevehicle.Wehighlighttwomarkettrendsformanceadvantagesduetohigherachievablespecificenergyandenergydensityatpacklevel.Asof2023,manyOEMs46IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapssuchasVW,Ford,Honda,Toyota,BMW,Mercedes,orBYD46-millimeterdiameterbatterycellssuchas4640(170-180g,haveannouncedtheirintentiontokeepusingorshifting~60ml,~11Ah)and4660[270]toallowlowerfloorheighttowardprismaticcellsforfuturevehiclegenerations[259-262].inafinishedcarorotherlargecylindricalformats,suchasEvenTeslaintroducedprismaticLFPcells(276x80x62mm³,4080batterycells.~3,200g,1,370ml,183Ah)intotheirportfoliofortheirentry-levelModel3andModelYvariantsin2020.Inparallel,Tailoredpouchcellsandblade-typecellsleadingsupplierssuchasCATL,SamsungSDI,Gotion,North-volt,SVOLT,orPPEShavealsocommittedtothisformat.PouchcellshaveflexibledesignsenablinghighpackagingAsanexample,wehighlighttheunifiedcellapproachofVW,efficiencyandenergydensities,butsufferfromrelativelypoorwhoseprismaticone-celldesign(approx.320x120x30mm³,mechanicalstabilityanddurabilityduetotheirnon-solidfoil~2,200g,~1,150ml)shouldworkacrossnearly80%ofitshousing.Thus,singlepouchcellsneedextramodule-orpack-productportfolio,withdifferentiationsachievedbyvaryingthelevelprotectionagainstbatterydamageandthermalrunaway.activematerialfromLFPtoLMNOandNMC[263].Inaddition,Before2018,mostautomotivepouchcellsweretypicallywehighlighttheBYDLFPbladebattery(960x90x13.5mm³,upto300mmlong.Sincethen,moreelongatedandblade-3,900g,1,200ml,~200Ah)withapotentialstacked-elec-typepouchcellswithalengthofmorethan500mmhavetrodeNMC-variantexpectedtoreachover280Ah,andtheenteredthemarket[9].Forexample,theVWMEBpouchcellsSVOLTproductportfoliowithitsL300(220x102.5x33.4mm³,witharound530mmortheAESCpouchcellswitharound~1,800g,~750ml,115Ah)toL600(574x118x21.5mm³,590mm.However,thesecelldimensionsarestillcompati-~3,500g,~1,400ml,226Ah)cells.blewithtypicalbatterymodulesizes.Pouchcellshavealsobecomesubstantiallythickerfromaround7mmbetweenLargercylindricalcells2012and2016toaround11-12mminthe2020s,withupto15-16mmnowbeingpossibleduetothemanufacturabilityofCylindricalcellshavenumerousadvantages.Theyarerobust,thermoformedfoilsandimprovedcellstability.Despitethesevibration-andshock-resistant,canwithstandelevatedinter-elongatedandthickerpouchcells,totalcellvolumeincreasednalpressureaswellasmechanicalstressmakingitfeasibletoonlyslightlybetween2010and2021andremainedbetweenintegratethemstructurallyintothevehicle,andareinexpensive400and500ml.Thisindicatesthatsinglepouchbagshavetomanufacture.Teslastartedwiththeir18650cellsearlyon,notbecomelarger,buthavebeenbettertailoredtothespacemakingthemtheonlyautomotiveOEMtorelyonthiscellavailableinthevehicle.However,averagesingle-cellcapacitiesformat.Thosecellshadaround40gofcellmass,16mlofcellhavedoubledtoaround70Ahduetonewactivematerials[9].volumeand<34Ahofcellcapacity.ThesubsequentupdatetoAsof2023,manyofthelatestvehicleplatformsfromseverallarger21700cellsincreasedthosepropertiestoaroundOEMssuchasVW,Mercedes,Renault,Hyundai,Kiausepouch>60g,23ml,and5Ah[9].In2020,Teslaannouncedtheircells,ensuringhighdemandinthecomingyears.Renault4680cellformat(diameter:46mm,height:80mm)withhasmadefuturecommitmentstopouchcells[271]ashavepotentiallyevenhigherenergyandpowerdensity,featuringHyundaiandKia[272]andleadingsupplierssuchasLGEnergy120mlofcellvolumeand24-27Ahcapacity.ThenewSolutions,SKInnovation,VERKOR,orEnvisionAESC.tablessdesignsolvedthepotentiallyhigherinternalresistanceInthefuture,expertsaretalkingabouttheendofthisdecadeproblem.Sincethen,cylindricalcellshaveexperiencedaforearlycom-mercialization,pouchcellsareexpectedtoboomandamorediverseproductportfolioisexpected.garnerfurtherattention,asthismaybethepreferredtechno-SeveralOEMssuchasBMWandGMaswellasstart-upslikelogyforsolid-statebatteries(SSB)[1].Nio,RivianandLucidMotorhaveannouncedtheirintentiontouselargecylindricalcellsforfuturevehiclegenerations.Energydensities–toward1,000Wh/lMoreprecisely,BMWplanstouse4695(420-450g,~140ml,and400Wh/kg32-36Ah)and46120(530-560g,~180ml,40-46Ah)cellsinitsupcomingnext-generation"NeueKlasse"electriccars,Historicaldataandtheannouncedpropertiesoffuturecellsexpectedby2025[264,265],withhighercellsmorelikelyinindicateasteadyincreaseinenergydensityacrossallthreelargervan-typecarsandSUVs.Nio[266]andGM[267]haveformatsaswellasahead-to-headracebetweencylindricalannouncedplanstoadoptthe4680formatfrom2024/25andpouchcells.onwards,withothermajorOEMssuchasMazda[268]andSubaru[269]alsoshowinginterestinusingthisformat.Forcylindricalcells,averagevalueshaveplateauedaroundLikewise,manylargecellmanufacturerssuchasLGEnergy250Wh/kgand700Wh/lsince2021.Withtheintroduc-Solutions,SamsungSDI,BAK,CATL,Panasonic,SVOLT,tionof46-millimeterdiameterbatterycells,similarlevelsandEVEEnergyaredevelopingtherespectiveproductport-forearlyNMC/GrorNCA/Grvariantsareexpectedwhilefoliosandproductioncapacities.Thesealsoincludeshorter47IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsnext-generationcylindricalcellswithhigh-energycathodeplateauedataround210-220Wh/kgin2018,butsurpassedmaterial(suchasNMCA)andsilicon-enhanced(10-20%)gra-500Wh/lin2020andreached550Wh/lin2022.Maximumphiteanodesmayachieve300Wh/kgand800-850Wh/l[49].energydensitieshaveevensurpassedthe650Wh/l,250Wh/kgthreshold,meaningthatprismaticcellsareclosingForpouchcells,performanceimprovedgreatlybetweenthegaptotheotherformats[273].Recentlyannouncedtar-2015and2018,reachingaveragevaluesover260Wh/kggetssuggestthat>280Wh/kgand700Wh/lcouldbereachedandaround600Wh/lintheearly2020s,witharoundwithinthisdecadewhenusinghigh-energycathodes(NMC,300Wh/kgand670Wh/lasthemarket-leadingvalues.NCA,andNMCA)andsilicon-enhanced(10-20%)graphiteThesevaluesareverysimilartothoseofcylindricalcells.anodesaswellasstackedelectrodes[3].Ifalmostsolid-stateNext-generationpouchcellsareexpectedtosurpassthislevelelectrolytesareused,>300Wh/kgmaybefeasible[274].andreach350Wh/kgby2025andupto400Wh/kgbyIncontrast,prismaticLFPcellscurrentlyfeature>160Wh/kg2030,correspondingto800-850Wh/lbythemid-2020sandand>400Wh/l[273,275].Usingstackedelectrodes,potentiallycloseto1000Wh/lneartheendofthisdecade[17].manganese-dopedLMFP,andsilicon-enhanced(~5%)graphi-teanodescouldachievethetargetsof>200Wh/kgandPrismaticcellshadacleardeficitincell-levelenergydensity>500Wh/lwithinthisdecade,e.g.,GotionHigh-Tech’sAstro-tostartwithbuthavesinceimprovedsignificantly.Averageinno[3,276].Thus,itisconsideredlikelythatfutureprismaticvaluesforHEprismaticcellswithnickel-richcathodesLMFPcellswillreachtheleveloftheircurrentHEcounterparts.Figure20:Roadmaponenergydensitydevelopmentbycellformatandchemistrytype[9,26,107,277-281].Theillustrationisnotexhaustive.Energydensity202320252030Spec.energy~400Wh/l~500Wh/l~550Wh/lEnergydensity~550Wh/l600-650Wh/l~700Wh/lSpec.energy~160Wh/kg~220Wh/kg~250Wh/kgEnergydensity200-220Wh/kg~250Wh/kg300Wh/kgSpec.energy250-350Wh/l~450Wh/l~500Wh/l~700Wh/l800-850Wh/l850-950Wh/l100-150Wh/kg~180Wh/kg~200Wh/kg~250Wh/kg280-300Wh/kg~350Wh/kg~700Wh/l750-800Wh/l850-1000Wh/l250-300Wh/kg300-350Wh/kg~400Wh/kgNickel-richNMC/NCALMO,LMNO,LFP,LMFP48IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.2.2.BatteryProductionTrendsCellassemblyThefinishedelectrodefoilsfromthevacuumdryercanthenbeDuetotheincreasingdemandforbatteries,acorrespondinglayeredincellassemblytogetherwithaseparatorfoiltoformupstreamramp-upofproductioncapacitiesmusttakeacellstackor,dependingonthecellformat,acellcoil(jellyplace.Asaresult,manyso-calledgigafactoriesarebeingbuiltrole).Thisisfollowedbyappropriatecontactingandinsertionworldwide,whichproducecellsonlargeandmostlyfullyaswellasweldinginacellhousing.Thenextandfinalstepofautomatedproductionlines.In2023,thecellsproducedincellassemblyiselectrolytefilling.Alltheprocessstepsofcellsuchgigafactorieswillachieveamarketvolumeofapproxima-assemblyhavetotakeplaceinadryroom.tely120billionUSD[282].CellfinishingCellproductioncanbedividedintothreemainsteps.First,theThecell,whichisnowstructurallycomplete,mustthenbeelectrodesofthebatteryhavetobemanufactured.Theseareelectrochemicallyactivated.Todoso,itisfirstalternatelythenassembledintocompletecellsinaprocessknownascellchargedanddischargedduringtheformingprocess,whichassembly.Duringcellfinalization,thecellsareactivatedandcantakeupto24hours,andthenstoredforacertainperiodtested[243,283].oftime(upto3weeks),knownasaging.Thefinalstepisqualitycontrol.ElectrodeproductionInthefirststepofelectrodeproduction,thestartingmaterialsProcessinnovationsoftheanodeandcathodearemixedwithasolvent,additivesThecostandsustainabilityrequirementsofthebatterymen-andbinderinabatchprocesstoformaslurry.Theslurryistionedinchapter2.3canbetransferredtobatteryproductionthenappliedtoametalfoil(madeofcopperontheanodeandindicatewhatneedstobeoptimizedhereaswell.Sincesideandaluminumonthecathodeside)inacoatingstep.Incellproductionaccountsforapproximately15to25percentofadryingstepdirectlydownstream,alargeproportionofthethetotalcostofabattery,thereisanincentivetokeepproduc-solventisremovedfromthecoatedslurry.Thisisfollowedbytioncostsaslowaspossibleandtofurtherreducethem[284,acalenderingstepinwhichthecoatinglayerisrolledunder285].Inaddition,arelevantproportionoftheCO2emissionsacertainpressureandthuspost-compacted.Afterwards,thefromthelifecycleassessmentofabatterycanbetracedbackelectrodefoils,someofwhichareuptotwometerswide,toitsproduction(inadditiontotheproductionandprocessingarecutintonarrowerpieces(slitting)andthenusuallythelastoftherawmaterialsandrecycling)[67].Besidesthecostsandmoistureisremovedfromthecoatedlayerinavacuumoven.sustainability,however,theothertwoimportantcriteriaforTheprocesssequencefromcoatingtoslittingtakesplaceinaproductionaretheachievablethroughputoftheindividualcleanroomatmospheretopreventcontamination.machinesandtheproductionquality.Figure21:Overviewofthebatterymanufacturingprocess.ElectrodeSlurryproductionCoating/DryingCalenderingSlittingVacuumdryingproductionElectrolytefillingWindingorStackingContactingHousing&WeldingCellCellassemblyFormationandAgingQualitycontrolCellfinishing49IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsThesecriteriamutuallyinfluenceeachother.Forexample,ifOualityimprovementenergysavingsreducecosts,thisisalsobeneficialforsustaina-Thereductionofscrapthroughinlinemonitoringofproductionbility.Betterqualitycontrolandlessscrapalsohelptoreduceisessentialforcost-optimizedandsustainablebatteryproduc-costsand,inturn,haveapositiveeffectonthroughputandtion.Thereisusuallyaveryhighscraprate,especiallyduringsustainability.Becausethesefourcriteriaaresoinfluential,itistheramp-upofnewproductionsites.Thismustbereducedasvitalfornewtechnologytrendstoofferadvantagesinatleastquicklyaspossibleafterproductioncommences.High-qualityoneofthethem.productionsystems,sensortechnologyandprocessexpertisecanhelptoensurethis.ApproachestoreducecostsTotalcellcostsaremadeupofsimilarsharesofinvestmentProductionscrapoccursthroughouttheentireprocess.Howe-costs(andtheassociateddepreciation)andOPEX(labor,ver,rejectratesareparticularlyhighduring(batch)mixingasenergy,other)[284].Thehighestinvestmentcostsforthebat-wellascoatinganddrying.Therearefewerproductfailuresinteryproductionfacilityarethedryroomsforcellassemblyandcellassemblyandcellfinishing,butthecontactingandweldthelargeautomatedinfrastructureforcellformationandfinis-spotsmustbecheckedincellfinishing,forexample.Itisprefe-hing.Aftertheinvestmentcosts,themostexpensiveprocessesrableiffaultsaredetectedimmediatelybeforecelltestingandarethosewiththehighestenergyconsumption.Inbatteryhavenotpassedthroughtheentireproductionprocess.production,theseareprimarilythedryroomsandthedryingprocessinelectrodeproduction.CellformationalsorequiresEarlydetectionofscrapthroughinlinemeasurements(5)canhighenergyinput.Drycoating(1)cansavetheenergyneededhelptooptimizequality.Pre-lithiation(6)isaprocessforanodefortheactualdryingprocessorsolventrecovery[67,286].treatmentduringorpriortocellmanufacturing.ItisstillrarelyMicroandminienvironments(2)canreplacethedryroomandusedinbatterycells,butcouldplayarolefornewhigh-requirelessenergyduetothesmallervolumethathastobeenergymaterials.Integratingitintotheproductionprocessconditioned[67,287]aswellaslowerinvestmentcostsforthecouldmakeasignificantcontributiontoimprovingbatteryinfrastructure.Laserprocessing(3)canalsobeusedatvariousproduction.stepsintheproductionprocesstoreplaceotherstate-of-the-artprocesses(e.g.,inweldingbutpossiblyalsoindrying)inaSustainabilityofcellproductioncost-optimizedmanner.Sustainabilitydependsheavilyonthetypeandamountofenergyused.Inbatteryproduction,electricityornaturalApproachestoincreasethroughputgascanbeusedasanenergysource.ElectricitycanhaveaInordertomeetthehighdemandforbatteriesandreducelowerenvironmentalfootprintthannaturalgasdependingoverheadandinvestmentcostsatthesametime,eachproduc-ontheelectricitymixused.Itisimportantforproductiontotionstephastobeoptimizedtoachievethehighestpossiblebeasenergy-efficientaspossible,butalsotouselow-carbonthroughput.Thisiswhatenablesefficientproduction(resultingelectricityprocesseswhereverpossible(especiallyinEurope,incostandsustainabilitybenefits).Thethroughputsofthewherepolicymeasuresfocusonsustainability).Boththedryingindividualproductionstepsdiffersignificantly.Forexample,cellprocessandthedryroomsareusuallyoperatedwithheatorassemblyandcellfinishinghavedisadvantagescomparedtocoolingenergyobtained,e.g.,fromnaturalgas.Formation,electrodeproduction.Roundcellsandprismaticcells(winding)ontheotherhand,requireselectricalenergytochargeandhavecellassemblyadvantagesoverpouchcells(stacking).Indischargethecells.Energy-efficientdryinganddryroomope-cellassembly,manymachineshavetobeusedinparallelincur-rationinparticulararethereforecriticalforbatterysustainabi-rentstate-of-the-artproductionsystemsinordertoachievelity.Itisalsodesirabletoavoidtheuseoftoxicsolventsinthethethroughputofupstreamelectrodeproduction.Formationproductionprocess,particularlyduringelectrodecoating.If(duetoslowcharginganddischargingcycles)andagingalsotoxicsolventsareused,theyhavetoberecovered,whichalsorequireasignificantamountoftime.Forthisreason,veryrequireshighenergyuse.large,fullyautomatedplantsmustbeabletoprocessmanycellssimultaneously.Asmentionedabove,technologiesthatleadtocostsavingsduetolowerenergydemand(1-3)orthatproducelessBesidesoptimizingformationprotocols,therearealsoapproa-waste(5)contributetoimprovingthesustainabilityofthechestoincreasethethroughputofcellassembly(4),e.g.,productionprocess.acceleratetheelectrolytefillingortoshortenandacceleratethestackingprocess.50IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsTechnologiesDescriptionDryCoating[288-290]Inordertomaketheelectrodeproductionprocessmoreeffective,anattemptismadetoworkwithoutorwithonlyasmallamountofsolvent.Therearedifferenttypesofprocessing(extrusion,directcalenderingImpact:process,powderapplicationandsinglelayerapplication).CostsSustainabilityDrycoatinghasadvantagesintermsofenergyconsumption.Nooronlyareducedamountoftoxicsol-QualityThroughputventsisusedandtheplant’senvironmentalfootprintismuchsmaller.LaserProcessingDrycoatingstillfaceschallengesbecauseoftheimpactonup-streamanddownstreamprocesses,the[291-297]adhesionofactivematerialtothecurrentcollectorfoil,andbinderprocessing.Impact:Outlook:CostsSustainabilityBecauseofthepositiveimpactonenergysavingsandtheeffortsofmajorcompaniessuchasTeslaandVW,QualityThroughputitislikelythatthistechnologywillmakeitswayintoseriesproductionoverthenextfewyears.IndustrialPlayers:CellAssamblyDirectcalendering:Tesla/Maxwell(US)Extrusion:Liten(FR),EAS(DE)Unknown:VW(DE),Targay(CA)[298,299]Lasersystemscanbeusedatmanypointsintheprocesschainforcutting,drying,structuring,contactingImpact:andpackagingorimprovingquality.CostsSustainabilityLaserapplicationscanofferadvantagesoverotherstate-of-the-artprocesses,e.g.,reducingenergyQualityThroughputdemand(drying),reducingoperationalexpenditures(cutting),increasingpowerdensity(structuring)orincreasingthroughputandflexibility.Laserprocessingfaceschallengesconcerningcontaminationincuttingprocesses,materialdamageduetohighenergyinput(cuttingordrying)orscalingtheapplicationspeedtoserialproductionwiththerequiredquality(drying,structuring,cuttingofcoatedelectrodes).Outlook:Duetothewiderangeofapplications,alargenumberofplayersareactiveinlaserprocessing.Technicalsolutionsarealreadyinseriesproductioninwelding,andcutting.IndustrialPlayers:Welding:e.g.Trumpf(DE),Manz(DE),Vitronics(DE),IPGPhotonics(US),Coherent(US),Cutting:e.g.Trumpf(DE),IPGPhotonics(US),Rofin-Sinar(DE/US),Han’sLaser(CN)Cleaning:LaserPhotonics(US)Drying:Laserline(DE),Trumpf(DE)Marking:Trumpf(DE),Rofin-Sinar(DE/US),Lumentum(US)Structuring:edgewave(DE),IPGPhotonics(US)Incellassembly,optimizingtheproductionstepsisprimarilyaboutincreasingthroughput.Thisisespeciallynecessaryforstacking(e.g.,high-speedsingle-sheetstackingorworkingwithrotatingtools)andelectrolytefilling(monitoringofthewettingprocessoraccelerationofwetting).Acceleratedcellassemblyhasadvantagesbecausefewersynchronizedmachinesarenecessary,reducingthecostsforinvestmentsanddryrooms.Increasedthroughputischallengingbecauseofprecisionrequire-mentswithfasterprocessesandprocessautomation.Outlook:Inthefieldofcellassembly,manyalreadyestablishedmanufacturersarecontinuouslyimprovingtheirmachines.Majorbreakthroughssuchasthosemadebyrotatingtoolsinstackingorbystructuredelectrodesinelectrolytefillingarestillattheresearchstage.IndustrialPlayers:Stacking:SVolt(CN),Manz(DE),Mühlbauer(DE),Sovema(IT),HitachiPowerSolutions(JP)Z-folding:e.g.Manz(DE),Mühlbauer(DE),Jonas&Redmann(DE),Sovema(IT),WuxiLead(CN)ElectrolyteFilling:e.g.MercedesBenz(DE),SKOn(KR),BMW(DE),Industrie-Partner(DE)51IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsTechnologiesDescriptionInlineMonitoringTherearemanypointsovertheentireproductionprocesswheredifferentparameterscanbecheckedusing[299-306]variousmeasurementtechniques:detectionofdefectsorcontaminationinthecoating(e.g.,withcameras),measurementofthecompressiveloadduringcalendering,monitoringofelectrolytefillingandespeciallyImpact:wetting(e.g.,withweightingorultrasound)ormonitoringofcontactingincellassembly(e.g.,withX-rays).CostsSustainabilityInlinemonitoringhasadvantagesbecauseitcanimprovetrans-parency(traceability),increasethroughputQualityThroughput(electrolytewetting)andreducescrap.Inlinemonitoringfaceschallengesbecauseoftheneedforfastandcontactlessmeasurementaswellastheevaluationandin-terpretationofthedata.Theadditionalsensorsandanalyticsrequiredarealsoexpensive.Outlook:Duetoincreasedautomation,inlinemeasurementoptionsarealsobecomingmoreimportant.Digitalizationofproductionisageneraltrendthatcanacceleratetheuseofin-linemeasurementtechnology.IndustrialPlayers:X-Ray:Viscom(DE),Waygate(DE),Nikon(JP),Dürr(DE),VisiConsult(DE)Ultrasound:LiminalInsights(US)Optic:e.g.Ametek(US),IsraVision(DE),Xiris(CA),KohYoung(KR),Dr.Schenk(DE),BST(DE)Weighing:Metter-Toledo(CH)MinienvironmentsMinienvironmentsencapsulateindividualproductionlines,sothatonlyasmallvolumeneedstobemain-[287]tainedinacleanordryroomatmosphere.Thereisadifferentiationbetweenminienvironments(e.g.,singleproductionmachinesareseparated)andmacroenvironments(severalmachinesareinthesameenclosure).Impact:ThemainadvantagesofminiandmacroenvironmentsarethereducedenergydemandandthuslowerCostsSustainabilityCO2footprintsandenergycosts.QualityThroughputThechallengesforminiandmacroenvironmentsrelatetomanagingtheintralogisticsbetweendifferentmachinesanddeterminingtheoptimalprocessconditions.Outlook:Duetothemanyadvantagesthatminiandmacroenvironmentscanoffer,manydryroommanufacturersarealreadybusywiththetechnicaldevelopmentofproductsolutions.Atpresent,however,thisisstillattheresearchstage.Concretesystems(especiallyonalargescale)couldgointoseriesproductionby2030.IndustrialPlayers:WuxiLead(CN),FISAIR(ES),WeissKlimatechnik(DE),ULTDry-Tec(DE),Munters(DE)Pre-LithiationInpre-lithiation,introducinglithiumintotheanodeisintendedtocompensateforlithiumlossesoverthe[299,307]batterylifetime.Thetwoprocessingroutesareelectrochemicalpre-lithiation(anodeispassedthroughanelectrolysisbathwithalithiumsource)andcontactpre-lithiation(lithiumisfirstappliedtoacarrierfoil,e.g.,Impact:byPVD,andthenbroughtintocontactwiththeelectrode).CostsSustainabilityPre-lithiationhasadvantagesbecauseitincreasestheenergydensitythroughfullutilizationofthecathodeQualityThroughputcapacity.TherearealsoimprovementstotheSEIandareductionoftheformationcyclesispossible.Pre-lithiationfaceschallengesduetothenecessityofworkingwithpurelithium(highlyreactiveandcomplexmaterialhandlingforcontactpre-lithiation),thehomogenizationofthelithiation(electrochemicalpre-lithiation),complexproductionmachinery,andmonitoringthedegreeoflithiationandscaling.Outlook:Whilethetechnologyrepresentsanadditionalprocessinelectrodemanufacturing,itcanreduceformationtimeandprovidelongerbatterylife.Althoughthetechnologyisstillattheresearchstage,someindustryplayersaretryingtocommercializeit.IndustrialPlayers:Electrochemical:MusashiEnergySolution(JP),Rena(DE),Nanoscale(US),Mercedes-Benz(DE)Contact:AppliedMaterials(US),Livent(US),LGChem(KR)52IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.2.3.CellProductionCapacitiesThemoststrikingfeatureintoday’sglobalbatterycellmanu-byLocationandOriginoffacturingisthedominanceofAsiancompaniesandthelocali-ManufacturerzationofproductioninChina.Morethanhalfoftheannoun-cedproductioncapacitiesarelocatedinAsia.Nevertheless,byWithinthisdecade,astrongincreaseinhigh-energybattery2030,aroundonequarterofcellproductioncouldbesitedincellproductioncapacitiesisexpectedtotakeplaceworldwide,Europe,andaroundonefifthintheUnitedStates(seeFiguredrivenbythediffusionofelectricmobilityandrenewableener-22).Similarly,halfoftheannouncedcapacitiesarebyChinesegies.Batteryplantshavebeenannouncedbyestablishedandcompanies(withCATLthelargestcellmanufactureraccordingpotentialfuturecellmanufacturerswithproductioncapacitiestotheseannouncements).Furthermore,theannouncementsofmorethan8TWh,whichexceedstheexpecteddemandofKoreancompaniesaresimilartothesumofallthepotentialconsiderably.However,itisunlikelythatthesecapacitieswillEuropeanbatterycellmanufacturers.befullyrealizedandutilizedwithintheannouncedschedules,duetothehigheconomicriskrelatedtothelarge-scaleKoreanandJapanesemanufacturers,inparticular,plantoscaleinvestments.Thisisexpectedtoleadtothefailureofsomeuptheirproductioncapacitiesoutsidetheirhomecountries.projects,delaysandlimitedutilizationduetohighscrapratesChinese,US-AmericanandEuropeancompanies,ontheotheranddowntimes,aswellastechnologicalchallengesduringhand,mostlyplantoestablishfacilitieswithintheirhomeregi-productionramp-up.Despitethis,theanalysisoftheannoun-ons.Itisremarkablethatmorethan80%oftheannouncedcedproductioncapacitiesprovidesextensiveinsightsintotheproductioncapacitiesofEuropeancompanieswillbelocatedemergingglobalbatterycellindustry.inEuropeandnearly10%intheUS,whichisthereforetheFigure22:Planned(announced)globalbatterycellproductioncapacitiesuntil2030.Ontheleftthebarsrepresentlocations,thelinesrepresentcapacitiesatheadquarters.Plannedproductionin2030accordingtoregion,subdividedintocompanyHQandproductionsiteinshownontheright.8,000TWh247,000US-AmericanComp.HQProd.siteAnnouncedproductioncapacity(GWh)6,000European20305,000Comp.HQ4,000Prod.site3,0002,000KoreanComp.HQProd.siteJapaneseComp.HQProd.site1,000Chinese0Comp.HQ2020Prod.site20222024202620282030TWh24CompanyHQin...Productionsitein...CNJPKREURUSROW53IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapscountrywiththelargestcellproductionofEuropeancompa-batteryproduction,areexpectedtohaveahigherlikelihoodniesoutsideEurope.However,thisvalueisstillrelativelysmall,tofailthanthoseofestablishedAsiancompanies,suchasLGindicatingthattheInflationReductionActhasnotyetledtoEnergySolutions,CATL,SamsungSDI,SKOn,andsoon.extensiverelocationplansofEuropeancompanies,asfearedbysomeactors(e.g.,[308]).TheannouncedcellproductioninEuropeisspreadovermanycountriesandmanyplayers.LGESinPoland,SamsungSDIWhilejointventuresbetweenlocalandforeigncompaniesandSKOninHungaryandNorthvoltinSwedencurrentlyhaveonlyplayasmallroleinChinaandEurope,theseseemtobethelargestproductioncapacitiesinEurope,makingtheseadedicatedstrategyoflargeUS-AmericancarmanufacturerscountriesthelargestLIBcellproducers.Until2030,mostofplanningtoenterbatterycellproduction.ThesejointventurestheannouncedproductioncapacitiesforbatterycellsareforcouldmakeupmorethanaquarterofUScellproductionGermany,Hungary,UK,andFrance.Eightdifferentcountriescapacitiesby2030.ExamplesincludeFordandCATL,orGMhaveannouncedplansformorethan100GWh,indicatingtheandLGES.Inthemediumterm,foreigncompanieswilldriveintensiveramp-uptakingplacealloverthecontinent.UntildomesticproductionintheUSandinEurope.Cellproduc-2025,theannouncementsaddupto500GWh,andcapaci-tioninChinaismostlyinthehandsofChinesecompanies.tiesareexpectedtoquadruplebetween2025and2030.TheWhilenon-EuropeancompaniesareexpectedtodominatelargestnumberofcompaniesareactiveinGermany(14),whilecellproductionwithinEuropeuntilaroundthemid-2020s,thisUKandFranceareinsecondjointplacewithsixcompaniesintrendwillbeevenedoutbytheendofthedecade.However,eachcountry.Additionalproductioncapacitiesof175GWhitshouldalsobenotedthattheplansofEuropeancompanies,havebeenannouncedforEuropeingeneralwithoutspecifyingnearlyallofwhichconcerncompletelyneworlarge-scaleaparticularcountry.54IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.2.4.CellProductionCapacitiesduetotheactivitiesoflargeChinesecellmanufacturers,suchbyFormatasCATL,CALBandBYD.Until2030,productioncapacitiesof2.3TWhforpouchcellsand1.5TWhforcylindricalcellshaveAspreviouslymentioned(section3.2.1),differentcellformatsareusedfordifferentrea-sons.Recenttrendsincludelargerbeenannounced(Figure23).ExcludingChinesecompaniesformatsintermsofsizeandenergycapacity(e.g.,theBYDfromthiscalculationresultsinverysimilarproductioncapa-bladecellorTesla’scylindrical4680format),andsomeOEMcities(1.1TWhcylindrical,1.3TWhprismaticand1.4TWhpushingastandardizedformatforalltheirproducts(e.g.,pouchcells).Itwasnotpossibletoallocatearound0.5TWhtoVolkswagen).Therefore,categorizingtheformatsintopouch,anyofthethreemainformatcategoriesduetothelackprismaticandcylindricalcellsisthebestwaytogaininsightsofspecificationinsomeannouncements.onagenerallevel.However,asthisforecastdependsontherealizationoftheTheannouncedproductioncapacitiesdonotindicateanyannouncementsandestimationsmade,itcomeswithsignifi-consolidationofformatssofar.Allformatswillcontinuetobecantuncertainties,asvisualizedintherespectiveFiguresused.However,intermsoftheannouncedproductioncapacity23and24.Itwasassumedthatmostmanufacturerswillstickuntil2030,prismaticcellsdominatewithupto4TWh,equiva-totheiroriginalformatchoiceinfutureplants,ifnocontrarylenttoapprox.halfofglobalcellproduction.Thisismainlyannouncementshavebeenmade.Furthermore,estimationsFigure23:Planned(announced)maximalproductioncapacitiesbycellformatsfortheupcomingdecade.Thepiechartindicatestherelativeshareofformatsin2025and2030.20304,000Announcedproductioncapacity(GWh)Certain3,0002025Expected2,000Potential1,000020222024202620282030Pouch2020PrismaticCylindricalUnknown55IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsfortheshareofformatsweremadeformanufacturerswhoAsshowninFigure24,prismaticcellsarethedominantformatareknowntoalreadyproducethem(e.g.,insomecases50/50forChinaandEuropeintermsofproductionsiteaswellasthedistributionwasassumed).Amoreindepthdiscussionoftheoriginofthecellmanufacturers.Thepictureismorediverseassessedprobabilityofrealizationisincludedinchapter1.2.forproductioncapacitiesintheUS,whenincludingnon-USmanufacturersaswell,witharoundone-thirdcylindricalandSomecompaniesareknowntopushforonecellformat,whileone-thirdpouch-typecells.Thelargeshareofcylindricalcellsotherstrytodiversifytheirportfolio.Theproductionofprisma-inUScompaniesisexplainedbyUS-AmericanOEMthatoftenticcellscouldbedominatedbytheChinesecompaniesCATLbuildbatterycellplantsasjointventureswithAsiancompanies(potentiallymorethan800GWh),CALB(around600GWh),(TeslaandPanasonic,GMandLGES,FordandCATL).KoreanandBYD(around400GWh).Theproductionofpouch-typecompanies(e.g.,SKOnandLGES)haveastrongfocusoncellscouldbedominatedbySKOn(morethan300GWh),pouchcells,whileJapanesecompanies(e.g.,PanasonicandfollowedbyLGESandAESCEnvision.TeslacouldbecometheAESC)haveannouncedproductioncapacitiesmostlyforpouchlargestmanufacturerofcylindricalcellswithproductioncapa-andcylindricalcells(40%each).Figure24showstherelativecitiesofupto350GWhby2030.LGESisanotherlargeplayershareofproductionofthethreeformatsbycompaniesfromforcylindricalcells.differentcountries/regionsaswellasbyproductionsite.Figure24:Estimatedshareofformatsfortheplannedcellproductionin2030inrespecttotheoriginofcellmanufacturer(left)andproductionsite(right).CompanyHQProductionsite0,61,41,20,54,10,5TWhTWh3,71,52,10,10,10,8100%100%80%80%60%60%40%40%20%20%0%0%CNUSEURKRJPROWCNUSEURKRJPROWPouchPrismaticCylindricalCertainExpectedPotentialUnknown56IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.2.5.PlausibilityofProductionCellproductionwillbestronglydominatedbyafewlargecellImplementationandIndustrymanufacturers.CATLalonehasannouncedmorethan1TWhStructureproductioncapacitiesbytheendofthedecadewithplantsallovertheworld.LGES,CALBandBYDhaveallannoun-Thediscussionsabovearebasedsolelyontheannouncedcedmorethan400GWh,followedby15othercompaniesproductioncapacitiesorinformationgatheredfrommarketthathaveannouncedmorethan100GWhbytheendofthereportsorcomparablesources.Thesenumbersdonotindicatedecade.AsindicatedbyFigure26,thefivecompanieswiththerealisticproductioncapacitiesthatcanbeexpectedwithinthislargestscale-upannouncementsmakeuparoundhalfofthedecade.However,wewanttogivemoredetailedinsightsintogloballyannouncedtotalproductioncapacitiesin2025,whilethequalityoftheseannouncements,whichmighthelptoindi-thetoptencompaniesaccountforaroundtwo-thirds.Evencatethefeasibilityoftherespectiveprojectsbeingrealized.thoughtheirmarketsharemaydecreaseduetotheactivitiesofemergingcellmanufacturers,thetenlargestcellmanufacturersAsshowninFigure25,around8.3TWhoftheannouncedarestillexpectedtoretainhalfofthemarketbytheendproductioncapacitiescanbeclassifiedasexpectedorpotentialofthedecade.–thisvalueformsthebasisfortheanalysisinchapters4.2and4.3.Theannouncementsclassifiedas“expected”until2030Manycarmanufacturersplantogetinvolvedinbatteryaredominatedbyestablishedmanufacturers,whilethoseclas-manufacturingaspartoftheirstrategytoelectrifytheirportfo-sifiedas“potential”haveroughlyequalsharesofestablishedlio.Someintendtoinvestinexistingcellmanufacturers,whileandnewmanufacturers.Inadditiontotheseannouncements,otherswanttosetuptheirownproductionlines.another5.7TWhofcapacityannouncementswereclassifiedas“doubtful”.Figure25:Announcedglobalproductioncapacitiesclassifiedbytheirfeasibilityofrealizationandtheexperienceofthepotentialcellmanufacturer.15,000Announcedproductioncapacities(GWh)12,0009,0006,0003,000020212022202320242025202620272028202920302020doubtfulpotentiallyexpectedestablishednewcellmanufacturer57IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsCellmanufacturingbyEVOEMcouldaccountforaroundWithinthisdecade,theproductioncapacitiesperproduction18%ofglobalbatteryproductioncapacitiesby2030,whilesitearesettoincrease.By2030,around30%ofglobaljointventuresbetweencarmanufacturersandcellmanufactu-productioncapacitywillbeatplantsproducingmorethanrerscouldmakeup13%.50GWh,andlessthan8%willbeatplantswithcapacitiesoflessthan10GWh,accordingtotheannouncements.Figure26:Shareofplannedglobalcellproductioncapacitiesaccordingtodifferenttypesofmanufacturer,magnitudeandproductioncapacities.CarmanufacturersProductioncapacitiesLargeincellproductionofplantscellmanufacturers20302035EVOEM<10GWhTop5NoEV<50GWhTop10JointVenture>50GWhAll58IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.3.BatteryPacksandSystemsBatterypackperformanceisinfluencedbyvariousdesignaspects.assemblingthemfirstintoindividualmodules.ACell2PackItisnecessarytooptimizethedesignandconfigurationoftheconceptthereforeavoidsthe(passive)componentsatmodulebatterypackinordertoachievethebestpossiblecellperfor-levelandmakesoptimaluseoftheavailableinstallationspace.manceatsystemlevel.Intermsofbatterydesign,Cell2PackandAprominentapplicationexampleistheBladeLFPcellbyBYD,Cell2Chassisconcepts,forexample,aregainingtheattentionwhichenteredthemarketin2020.TheBladebatteryconsistsofdifferentOEMs.Batteryswappingsolutionshavealsobeenofseveralindividualcellswithalengthofupto96cm.BYDrecentlyreintroduced.Withregardtocoolingthebatterysystem,isusingtheconceptintheirHanmodelsandothers.Otherimmersioncoolingisseenasanalternativetoindirectcooling.examplesincludeCATL'sQilinbattery,whichwasannouncedAnothermajortrendconcernstheconnectivityanddigitalizationin2022[309],andSVOLT'sDragonArmorbattery[310].Theofthebatterysystem,withdigitaltwinsofthebatterysystemspecificenergyoftheQilinbatteryatpacklevelisclaimedtoconsideredparticularlyimportant.Ofcoursetherearenumerousbe255Wh/kgforNMCcellsand160Wh/kgforLFPcells.Theotherpossibilitiesforimprovement,butthosementionedaboveDragonArmorbatterywasannouncedtoachieveadrivingareexplainedinmoredetailbelow.rangeofbetween800kilometers(LFP)andover1,000kilo-meters(NMC).C2PconceptsarealsopossiblewithothercellStructuralBattery–CelltoPack(C2P)formatssuchasthehardcasecylindricalcellsusedintheC2PbatterypacksofTesla’sModelY.ManyOEMincludingBMW,ACell2PacksystemutilizesthecellsasstructuralelementsMercedes,Volkswagenandothershaveannouncedtheirinten-byinstallingthemdirectlyintothebatterypackwithouttiontouseC2Pconceptsinfuturemodels[311-313].Figure27:Illustrationofbatterysystemcomponents.EnergysupplyBatterymanagementsystemThermalmanagementSystemarchitectureBatterydesign59IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsStructuralbattery–CelltoChassis(C2C)SwappablebatteryTheC2CdesignrepresentsafurtherevolutionoftheC2PIncontrasttocharginganelectricvehiclebypluggingitintodesign,inwhichbatterycellsareintegrateddirectlyintotheapowersource,batteryswappingremovetheemptybatteryvehiclechassis.Thisallowstheinstallationspacetobeusedfromthevehicleandreplacesitwithanalreadychargedbat-evenmoreefficiently.Thebatteryexplicitlyservesasastruc-teryfullyautomatically.Theadvantageofthissolutionistheturalsupportforthechassis,whichmeansthattheoveralleliminationofchargingtime,althoughswappingthebatteryweightofthevehiclecanbereducedatthesamebatteryca-alsotakesseveralminutes[325].Inaddition,usingexchange-pacitythusalsosavingcosts.Anotheradvantageisthelowerablebatteriespermitsdifferentbusinessmodelsforcarsales,interiorfloor,whichpermitsmoreefficientuseofthevehicle'sasthebatterycanbeconsideredarentalgoodwhichreducesinteriorspace[314].Volumeutilizationcanbeincreasedbythepurchasingcostsofanelectricvehicle.Inadditiontotheabout50%comparedtoconventionalmodule-baseddesigns.directuseofthebatteryasatractionbattery,thereisalsoanC2Cconceptscanalsoachievecostsavingsofaround35%additionalbusinessmodelfortheexchangestationoperator,comparedtoconventionalmodule-basedbatteries[315].wherethebatteriescanalsobeusedforgridregulation,forexample.Inaddition,batteryswappingmeansitiseasyHowever,duetoitsmoreexposedposition,thebatterymusttochangethesizeofbatteryinthevehicleandappropriatelybeprotectedfromexternalimpactsorcorrosion.Inaddition,sized,application-dependentbatteriescanberented.integrateddesignscanmakeitmoredifficulttorecycleorreplaceabattery.Thismustbeaddressedbythecorrespon-Sinceswappablebatteriesarenotstandardizedintermsofdingchassisdesign[316].InadditiontoC2C,therearealreadyinteroperabilitybetweendifferentOEMs,theexchangestationsapproachesthatgoevenfurther.Thecompany24Mannoun-areusuallybrand-specificandnotavailabletoothermanufac-cedanelectrode-to-packsystemattheJapanMobilityShowturers.Theinfrastructureavailablesofarhasbeenbuiltmainlyin2023.SuchanapproachwouldfurtheroptimizetheuseofinChina,whereindividualOEMsplayaleadingrole.passivematerialsandthusenergydensityaswellascosts[317].Figure28:IndustryannouncementsonthemanufactureandimplementationofC2Pconcepts[309,310,318-324].Theillustrationisnotexhaustive.20232024202520262027...20307159268341SVoltDragonArmorAnnouncementFirstApplicationMass-marketing2BYDBlade,CATLc2p(2.0)BYD,Tesla,Hyundai,...3CATLQilin(3.0),Zeekr4Tesla46805FordMachE6Aito7Mercedes(BYD)8BMWsGen6Batteries9Stellantis60IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsThebatteryswappingideaisnotanewone.Asearlyas2013,announcedmorethan20,000swapstationsforBEVsby2025,theIsraelicompanyBetterPlacewantedtosetupanation-mainlyfocusedonChinesecities[328].wideinfrastructureforbatteryexchangeincooperationwithRenault-Nissan.Adecadeago,Teslawasworkingonbatte-Coolingconceptsryswappinginordertomakethechargingtimeofitscarscomparabletorefuelingatafillingstation[326].Sincethen,Coolingisnecessarytokeepthebatterycellswithinanoptimalhowever,TeslanowreliesprimarilyonitsSuperchargernet-thermalwindow.Typically,threedifferenttypesofcoolingmet-work.InAsia,especiallyinChina,batteryswappinghasbeenhodsareused:(1)aircooling,(2)indirectcoolingand(3)immer-offeredbyseveralmanufacturersforsomeyearsnow.Thesioncooling.Aircoolingdissipatesheatviaanairflow,butthisChinesecompanyNiohasadoptedthisconceptandcurrentlymethodhasalowcoolingcapacityandisthereforenotreallyoperatesaroundseven"PowerSwapStations"inGermanysuitableforautomotiveapplications[329],eventhoughitwasandaround27acrossEurope.Worldwide,NiohasmorethanusedinanolderversionoftheNissanLeaf,forexample[330].2,000swapstations,thevastmajorityofwhicharelocatedinChina(approx.1,975stations)[327].Nio’scurrentswapToday'svehiclemodelspredominantlyuseindirectcoolingstationscanstore21batteries(atpresentonlysuitableforNiosystemsbasedonawater-glycolmixture.Here,thereisnoEVs)andthecompanyclaimsswapsareperformedinabout3directcontactbetweencoolantandbatterycells,andheatisminutes[327].Itisworthmentioningthatthestandardizationtransferredindirectlyviacoolingplates.Comparedtoaircooling,ofbatteriesinChinawaspropelledbyNioandGeely,whoindirectcoolingismoreefficient,butassociatedwithhighernowofferthefirstcross-manufacturerbatteryswapsinChina.complexityandcosts.Nioisnottheonlymanufactureractiveinthisfield.Contem-poraryAmperexEnergyServiceTechnologyLtd.(CAES),aDirectcoolingorliquidimmersioncoolingisevenmoreefficient.subsidiaryofCATL,alsolaunchedthebattery-swappingbrandAsthenamesuggests,batterycellsarecooledindirectcontactEVOGOin2022,andiscurrentlysettingupabattery-swap-withthecoolant.ThiscoolsbetterthanindirectorevenairpinginfrastructureinChina.SeveralChinesecompanieshaveFigure29:Illustrationofcoolingconceptsforbatterypacks[338].AircoolingAirflowImmersioncoolingCellsImmersionfluidCellsInletInOutletOutPhaseChangeMaterials(PCMs)IndirectliquidcoolingPhaseChangematerial(PCM)CellsCoolantoutCoolantinCellsCoolant,outCoolantpipe61IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapscooling[331].Inaddition,thiscoolingvariantislesscomplexhighlatentheat,PCMscanabsorbtheenormousamountsofthanindirectcooling,whichisalsoreflectedinthereducedtotalheatandthusreduceboththemaximumtemperatureandtheweightforcooling[331].Eventhoughthecoolantisindirecttemperaturedifferenceinthebatterypack.PCMsundergoacontactwiththecells,fireprotectioncanbeensuredbymixinginphasechangefromsolidtoliquidwhenheated.OrganicPCMsappropriateflame-retardantadditives.Theriskofshortcircuiting(e.g.,paraffin)orinorganicPCMs(e.g.,hydratedsalts)canbeisevenlowerhereduetotheuseofdielectricmaterials.Despiteused.PCMsarerelativelyinexpensiveand,duetotheirpassivetheseadvantages,directcoolingstillfacescertainchallenges.Formodeofoperation,relativelyenergy-efficient.However,sinceexample,selectinganelectricallynon-conductivebasefluidandheatisnormallyonlystoredandnotdissipated,itisimportanttoheat-resistantadditivesishardtodoandimpuritiescanbeformedavoidexhaustingthisstoragecapacityathigherambienttempe-inthefluidduringoperation[329].raturesorchargingrates.CombiningthiswithanactivecoolingOneapplicationexampleforthistechnologyisXingMobility'ssystemisanoption.Unfortunately,theactivecoolingsystemImmersionCTP,announcedinAugust2023[332].TheBYD'scounteractstheadvantagesofPCMs.Forthisreason,PCMsareSealwillalsohavedirectcooling[333].OthermanufacturershavestillthesubjectofresearchandnotyetusedinEVs[336,337].alsouppedtheireffortsinthisarea.In2020,KreiselElectricandShellannouncedabatterysolutionthatcombinesKreisel'sLi-ion800VbatterysystemsmoduletechnologywithShell'sthermalmanagementfluid[334].Thetwocompaniesclaimthattheirsolutionincreasesefficiency,In2019,PorschelauncheditsTaycan.Thiswasthefirstseriesenablesfastchargingandoffersimprovementsinsafetyandvehiclebasedon800Vtechnology,eventhoughmostelectricstability.In2021,automotivesupplierMahledevelopedanovelvehiclesonthemarkettodayarestillequippedwitha400Vbatterycoolingsystemthatusesimmersioncoolingasakeytech-system[339].Switchingfroma400Vsystemtoan800Vnologytoenablefasterchargingofelectriccars[335].systemoffersseveralad-vantages,e.g.,doublingthepoweratthesamecurrentor,conversely,halvingthecurrentatTheuseofphasechangematerials(PCMs)isapassivecoolingthesamepower.Thiscandirectlyincreaseperformance.alternativeforthermalmanagement.TakingadvantageoftheFigure30:Industryannouncementsontheuseof800Vsystems[343-350].Theillustrationisnotexhaustive.20232024202520262027...20302913647581AudiE-TronGT,PorscheTaycan,GACAionV,BYDOcean,XPengG9,KiaEV6...2LiAutoLiMEGA,GACAionHyperHT,Zeekr0013LucidMotorsAir4HyundaiIoniq55LotusType132(UK)6LeapmotorC107LucidMotorsGravity,ChevroletSilverado,GMC8KiaEV9HummerSUV,SierraEV,TeslaCybertruck9BMW"NeueKlasse"FirstapplicationMass-marketing62IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsTheresistancelossesinthecables,whichscalewiththeDatafromthebatterycouldthenbestoredinacloudBMS,currentsquared,areminimized.Inadditiontoincreasingtheandanalyzedviacloudcomputing,e.g.,usingmachinelear-efficiencyofthebatterysystem,thisalsomeansthatexternalning.Theuseofacloud-basedBMSreducestheburdenoncoolingcansometimesbeavoidedduringcharging.OneofthetheonboardBMS.Adigitaltwinofthebattery,whichisthegreatestadvantagesofthe800Vsystemisparticularlyevidentdigitalimageofthephysicalbattery,alsoplaysanimportantduringcharging.Whilea400Vsystem,forexample,isonlyrole.ThecombinationofcloudcomputingandtheInternetofabletochargeat200kW,asimilar800VarchitectureallowsaThings(IoT)makesitpossibletodeterminetheSoCandSoHtheoreticalchargingpowerof400kW.Thismeans,intheory,ofthebatteryandtocontroltheminthemosteffectiveway.thatchargingtimecanbehalved.Usingmachinelearning,thedatastoredinthecloudcanbeanalyzedandthesystemcanbeoptimizedtoincreasebatte-Itsnoveltyandtheassociatedlackofstandardizationaredraw-rylife.Thewirelesslinkingofslaveandmasteralsomakesitbacksassociatedwiththe800Vconcept.The400Vsystempossibletoreducecomponentcostsandthesystem'sphysicalrepresentstheinternationalstandardandchargingstationsetc.susceptibilitytoerrors.Furthermore,thedigitaltwinoffersarepredominantlyequippedforthistechnology.Additionally,thepossibilityofdocumentingandtransparentlydisplayingthehighervoltageplacesadditionaldemandsonsafety.Fortherelevantvehicledataoverthevehicle'sservicelife.Thisisexample,componentssuchasswitches,fusesorcablesmightimportant,forexample,ifthevehicleisresold.WiththeBatte-havetobereplacedbycomponentswithahighervoltageryRegulationandtheplannedintroductionofaDigitalProductresistance,andadditionalsafetyelementsmighthavetoPassport(DPP),thispossibilitytodocumentandtransparentlybeadded.displaybatterypropertieswillbehighlyrelevantandissettoplayanimportantroleintheintroductionofacircularecono-Despitethesedrawbacks,manyothermanufacturerssuchmyforbatteries[351-354].asAudi,BYDorKIAhavealreadylaunchedtheirown800Vmodelsorhaveannouncedtheirintentiontodoso(e.g.,HybridbatterypacksVW,BMW)[340-342].Thecurrentandannouncedvehiclesaremainlyhigh-performanceandinuppermiddle-classorTheperformancerequirementsforelectricvehiclescanbeveryluxurysegments.diverseandsometimescontradictoryintermsofthedemandsonthecells.AmixtureofcellscanbeusedtofulfiltheSmartBatteryManagementSystemsrequirementsofanapplication.Thebest-knownexampleofthisisthecombinationofhigh-energyandhigh-performanceThetaskoftheBatteryManagementSystem(BMS)istocells.Theapplicationcanthenbenefitfromtheadvantagesofcontrolandprotectthebattery.TheBMSmonitorschargebothcelltypes,althoughcompromiseshavetobemade,forstatus(SoC),batteryhealth(SoH)andoptimizesbatteryexampleintermsofabsolutepowerorenergycapacity[355].performance.TheBMSusuallyconsistsofaBMSslave,CombiningNMCcellswithLTOcellsenableshightotalenergywhichisresponsibleforsignalreceptionandfiltering,andaand,atthesametime,theLTOcellsenablehighchargingratesBMSmaster,whichdiagnosesthebattery.Theseareconnec-andincreasethelifetimeofthehigh-energycellsbyrelievingtedtoeachother.CurrenttrendsinBMSincludemakingthemfrompowerpeaks.ThecombinationofLFPandNMCisthesystemmoreintelligentandadvancingitsdigitalization.avariantthatcombinesthehighsafetyandservicelifeoftheAmajorsteptowardmakingtheBMSmoreintelligentistomorecost-effectiveLFPcellswiththesuperiorperformanceoflinkitdirectlytothepowerelectronics.TraditionalbatterytheNMCcells.In2021,themanufacturerNioannouncedthemanagementsystemsareseparatefromthepowerelectronics.introductionofsuchamixedbatteryincombinationwiththeirBMScontrolsthepowerconverter,whilethepowerelectronicsC2Parchitecture[356].CATLalsopresentedacombinationisresponsibleforcharging,dischargingandmotorcontrol.oflithium-ionandsodium-ioncellsinaratioof2:1andinaWiththedevelopmentofbroad-bandsemiconductors,futurecertainarrangementthroughseriesand/orparallelintegration.powerelectronicscouldbeusedforbatterymanagementInadditiontolowercosts,thisresultsinfurtheradvantageswithoutaseparateBMS.Whencombinedwithcloudcompu-intermsofthebattery'slowtemperaturebehavior,increasedtingtechnology,intelligentpowerelectronicscouldalsooffersafetywithregardtothermalrunawayandreducedcoolingthediagnosticsupport[351,352].requirements[357].AlthoughthesehybridconceptsincreasethedemandsontheBMSandpowerelectronics,theyalsoallowahighdegreeofflexibilitywhenadaptingbatterysystemstospecificapplicationrequirements.63IndustryandTechnologyRoadmaps3.4.BatteryRecyclingBatteryrecyclingattheendofabattery'slifecyclespecificallyIndustrialoperationsthatutilizethehydrometallurgicalasaincludestherecoveryofbatterycomponentsandmaterials.coreprocessincludeBASF[365],SungEelHiTech[366],ACEVariousdifferentrecyclingprocessesexistthatcanbecate-GreenRecycling[367],Neometals[368]orNorthvolt[369].gorizedintothreegroups:pyrometallurgicalrecycling,hydro-OtherindustrialoperationsareforexampleDuesenfeld[370],metallurgicalrecyclingandmechanicalrecycling.ProcessesTES[371],Mercedes-Benz[372]orVolkswagen[373].fromthesegroupsaretypicallycombinedinordertoachievethemostefficientmaterialrecoveryintermsofquantityandBoththeveryhightemperaturesrequiredforpyrometallurgyquality.Thefirststepsbeforetheactualrecyclingprocessesareandthewastewatertreat-mentofthehydrometallurgicalpro-thetesting,discharging,sortinganddisassemblyoftheEoLcessarecriticalintermsofsustainability.Newprocesses,suchbatterypacksintomodulesandcells.Afterthis,manyprocessasmechanochemical[374]orfrothflotation[375],areunderroutesstartwithmechanicalprocessingsteps,e.g.shreddinginvestigationtoimprovematerialseparationandrecoveryratesandmechanicalsortinginordertoobtaintheblackmass.whilereducingtheenvironmentalimpact.TherecyclingoftheSomecomponentssuchashousingscanbeextractedinthisgraphiteanodehasalsobeeninvestigatedrecently[376-378].step.Theblackmassisthenrecycledviahydro-orpyrome-Althoughitisstilloflesseconomicinterest,itmightbeofstra-tallurgicalprocessestorecoverthevaluablebatterymaterials.tegicinterestsinceitisacriticalrawmaterialwhichishighlyDifferentrecyclingroutesarepossible,manyofwhicharedependentontheChinesesupplychain[379].Therecycledcurrentlybeingdevelopedorarealreadyatpilotorindustrialgraphitecanbereusedinbatteries,butalsoinotherareasscale[7,358].suchasinsupercapacitorsorforcatalysis[380].OnemainareaoffocusintheindustryistheautomationoftheMaterialrecoveryisnotonlyimportantatthebatteryEoLbutsortinganddismantlingprocess,whichcansignificantlyincrea-alsoduringcellproduction.Inthiscontextandinadditionsethespeedofpre-treatmentandthusreducethecostsofthetotherathercomplex,costlyandenvironmentallyharmfulupstreamrecyclingprocess.Oneofthebiggestchallengesfor(established)processes,researchisalsobeingcarriedoutintothedisassemblyitselfisthewidevarietyofLIBs,orpacks,cellthedirectrecyclingofproductionwasteforimmediatereuseformatsandchemistries.Becauseofthisdiversity,semi-auto-oftheactivematerialsfornewelectrodes.Inthisapproach,maticdisassemblyisprovingtobeagoodoptionforthetimethedefectiveelectrodeiscrushedandthecathodeoranodebeing[359].Inthelongerterm,recycling-friendlydesigncouldmaterialisseparatedfromtheelectrode,wherebythesepara-contributetotheintroductionofmoreautomateddissassemb-tedblackmasscanbereturnedtotheelectrodeproduction.lyprocesses[360].Directrecyclingisstillintheresearchphaseandrepresentsarelativelynewtechnique(thereissomefirstindustrialactivity,Inthepyrometallurgicalprocess[7],batterycellsormodulese.g.byPNE[381])butithasthepotentialtooptimizematerialareheatedinaseriesoftemperaturerangesdirectlyaftertheutilizationintheproductionandreduceenvironmentalimpactdismantelingprocessoflargerbatterypacks,forexample,intermsofproductionwastehandlingandcirculareconomyinordertofirstutilizetheorganiccomponentsenergeticallydiscussions[382].Inadditiontothedirectrecyclingofmanu-andthen,dependingonthetemperaturestage,reducethefacturingscrap,thereisalsodiscussionofitspotentialformetalcompounds.Theresultingliquidmetalalloyconsistsofrecyclingtractionbatteries.Co,Ni,Cu,Fe,withLi,MnandAlendingupinformofoxidecompoundsintheslag.BoththeseparationofthemetalsfromTheapproachesofreusing(i.e.analreadyusedtractionbatterythealloyandtherecoveryoflithiumfromtheslagareusual-isusedin(another)mobileapplicationwithlessdemandinglycarriedoutbyhydrometallurgypost-treatment.Industrialrequirements),repurposing(i.e.asecondlifeESSbuiltwithoperationsthatutilisepyrometallurgyasacoreprocessincludeusedtractionbatteries)orremanufacturing(refurbishingandUmicore[361]NickelhütteAue[362],NipponRecycleCenterrestoringthebatteryforanextendedlifetime)arealsobeingCorp[363]orGlencore[364].discussedascrucialforamoresustainablebatterylifecycle.Forexample,second-liferesultsincostandenvironmentalbenefitsThehydrometallurgicalprocess[7]uses(acid-based)dissolutionbyextendingthebatteries'lifetime[383,384].Inparticular,andprecipitation,filtrationorsolventextractionprocessestousedbatteriesfromelectricvehicleswithasufficientcapacityseparateandrecoverthemetals.Thisprocesscanalsobeusedoftypically70-80%SoHmightserveinasecondlifeinalesswithoutpyrometallurgicalpretreatment.Inthiscase,themetaldemandingstationaryapplicationandthuscovertheincreasingcompoundsintheblackmassfromthemechanicalpretreat-demandforstationarybatterystorage.Becauseofthehighmentarechemicallydissolved,andhigh-purityrawmaterialspotentialofsecondlife,severalmajorautomotiveOEMshavearerecoveredbytheabove-mentionedextractionprocesses.startedtoinvestigatesecond-lifeapplicationsforusedelectric64IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsvehiclebatteries[385-387].However,second-lifeapplicationsperspective,sothatintialmarketactivityhasstartedtostillfacechallengesbeforebecomingwidelyadopted.Theseemerge.Inaddition,theLIBsusedtodaycontainnumerouschallengesrelatetoaspectssuchastheadditionalprocessesvaluableand,insomecases,criticalmaterialsthatmakerequired,amismatchoffirstandsecondliferequirements,recyclingparticularlyattractivefromaneconomicperspective.batteryhealthandadvancedbatterydiagnostics,missingopenTheseincludecobalt,nickel,lithium,copperandaluminum.standardsfortheexchangeofdesignandstatusinformation,Intermsofquantity,aluminum,nickelandcoppermakeuporwarrantiesandliabilityissues[384].thelargestshare.Intermsofvalue,cobaltandlithiumarethemostimportant.CapacitydevelopmentsRecyclingsitescanbeclassifiedaccordingtorecyclingdepthintoso-calledspokesandhubs.Spokesarecapableofper-Whilecurrentlyreycyclingactivitycentersaroundusedbatte-formingthefirststepsofthebatteryrecyclingprocesstotheriesfromconsumerelectronicapplications(i.e.,mobilephones,so-calledblackmass,containingthecathodeandanodeactivelaptops)andscrapfromcellproduction,end-of-lifebatteriesmaterials(whichin-cludemostofthevaluablemetals).Hubsfromelectricvehiclesareexpectedtorepresentthehighestcanperformthesecondstepofbatteryrecycling:Theblacksharefrom2035onwards[7].Duetothehighdemandforbat-massisrefinedusingthe(electro-)chemical,hydrometallurgi-teriesandthesmallnumberofreturningbatteries,recyclatescalorpyrometallurgicalprocessesmentionedabove,allowingwillonlybeabletoprovideasmallproportionofthebatteryvaluablesubstancessuchascobalt,nickelandlithiumtomaterialsrequiredinthemediumterm.Yet,inthelongtermberecovered.theycanreducethedependenceonbatteryrawmaterialstoasignificantextent[7].Figure31showsthegloballyannouncedLIBrecyclingcapacityforhubs,spokes,fullyintegratedrecyclingplants(hub+spoke)Togetherwiththeincreasingquantitiesreturned,thisincrea-andforsitesthatcannotbeclassified.Cumulativeglobalsestheattractivenessofrecyclingalsofromaneconomicbatteryrecyclingannouncementsfor2030indicateacapacityFigure31:Plannedcumulativeglobalrecyclingcapacitiesinkilotonsperyearaccordingtofacilitytypeandplanned(announced)constructiondate.5,0004,000Spokedisassembly,pre-treatment,Capacity(kilotons)3,000mechanicalprocessing2,000Hubmetallurgicalrefinement1,000materialrecovery02024202620282030nodateHub+Spoke2022pre-treatment+mechanicalandmetall-urgicalprocessingmergedinonesitenotclassifiednodataaboutprocessingstepsoroutputofthesiteHubSpokeHub+Spokenotclassified65IndustryandTechnologyRoadmapsofapprox.4,000kilotonsperyearofprocessingcapacityforinGermanyisapprox.100kilotonsperyearin2023[389].materialrecoveryandapprox.400kilotonsperyearifonlytheAnnouncementsindicateadditionalcapacityofapprox.pre-treatmentprocessesandblackmassproductionareconsi-kiltonsperyear(hubs)and130kilotonsperyear(spokes)bydered.From2024,Chinaisexpectedtodominatetheramp-up2030.Inthecomingyears,however,countriessuchasSpain,ofhubcapacities,whereasEuropeanindustrialactivitiesinpar-andtheUKaswellasEasternEuropeancountriessuchasticularwilldominatetheramp-upofspokecapacitiesinrelativeRomania,PolandandHungarywillalsoincreasetheircapacitiesterms.Notethatbasedonthesedata,aforecastofbatteryandthusdiversifytheprojectsituationinEurope.recyclingprocessingcapacitiesupto2030isonlypossibletoalimitedextent:Thein-andoutputsoftherecyclingfacitilitesThehighestcapacityannouncementscomefromtheChineseareoftennotexactlyclearanddataavailabilityislimited,espe-companyBrunp,asubsidiaryofCATL.AnotherChinesecom-ciallywhereAsiaisconcerned.Hence,itcanbeassumedthatpany,GEM,hasalreadybuiltsubstantialbatteryrecyclingcapa-collection,sortingandmechanicalpre-treatment,especiallycities.Othercompanieswithannouncementsoflargecapaci-intheso-calledspokes,isratherinformal[388]andthereforetiesareCamel(China),Gotion(China),Gravita(India),SungEeldifficulttoidentify.WhereasinEurope,theexistingcapacityHiTech(SouthKorea),Li-Cycle(US),RedwoodMate-rials(US),andannouncementsarebasedonaverylargenumberofGuanghuaSci-Tech(China),Eramet(France).Eachofthesecompaniesandstart-upsinbatteryrecycling,inAsiatherearecompaniesisexpectedtohaveacapacitysharelowerthannumerousannouncementsregardingsignificantcapacitiesby15%in2030.TheEuropeancompanieswiththebig-gestlargeandestablishedcompanies.capacityannouncementsby2030areUmicore(Belgium),Eramet(France),InoBatAuto(Slovakia),AvestaBatteryandGlobally,approx.89%(59%inEurope)oftheannouncedEnergyEngineering(Belgium),AltilliumMetals(UnitedKing-recyclingcapacitycanbecategorizedashubs,7%(35%indom),Librec(Switzerland),BASF(Germany)andNorthvoltEurope)asspokes,and4%(13%inEurope)oftheannoun-(Sweden).cedsitescouldnotbecategorized,i.e.,itisunclearwhethertheannouncementsrefertohuborspokecapacity.TogetherSitesareoftenplannedincloseproximitytobatterymaterialwiththegenerallylowavailabilityofdata(e.g.,constructionproducers,batterycellmanufacturersorautomotivemanufac-yearsorcapacitiesfortheannouncedsites),andahighshareturers.Duringtheramp-upphaseofcellproduction,butalsoofunclassifiedsites(ofwhichapprox.25%ofthecapacityisduringongoingoperations,relevantquantitiesofproductionlocatedinChina)thisresultsinahighdegreeofuncertaintyscraphavetoberecycled.Forexample,thehighdensityofregardingoverallrecyclingcapacity.recyclingfacilitiesintheeasternregionofGermanycan,forexample,beexplainedbythebatterycellproductionfacili-Currently,andpresumablyinthefuture,mostofthecapacitytiesofTeslaandCATL.SungEelHighTech,forexample,hasislocatedinChina,butsubstantialcapacitieshavealsobeeninstalleditsnewrecyclingplantforproductionscrapnotfarannouncedforEurope,amountingtomorethan400kilotonsfromtheLGEScellmanufacturingfacilityWroclawinPoland.peryear(spokesandunclassifiedsites)and470kilotonsperHence,marketdynamicsforrecyclingintheEuropeanregionyear(hubs)by2030.Theparticularlyhighnumberofrecyc-aredriven,amongotherthings,bytheestablishmentoflingsitesinGermanyisstriking.Theexistingcurrentcapacitybatterycellproductionsites.664.ImplementationOutlook67ImplementationOutlook4.1.TechnologyRoadmapsManyproductandmanufacturinginnovationshavethepoten-applications.Asanexample,thereisatrade-offbetweentialtoimproveLIB.Thespecifictypeofimprovementdependsincreasingtheenergydensityandimplementingpassivesafetylargelyontheapplication’sortargetsystem’srequirements.componentsinthebattery(cell)design.Here,wechosethreeobjectivesfortheimplementationofnew4.1.1.Performance-OptimizedLIBtechnologies:(1)tooptimizetheperformanceofLIBs,e.g.,intermsofenergydensityandfastchargingcapability;(2)toHighperformanceinLIBoftenmeanshighenergydensityandoptimizethecostofLIBs;and(3)tominimizetheenvironmen-fastcharging.However,inmanycasesthesetwoparameterstalfootprintofLIBs.Whilethesethreeobjectivessounddesi-conflict.Thereareopposingdesignsofmaterials,electrodes,rableoverall,theindividualKPIsofaLIBoftenhaveconflictingcellsandsystemsforhighenergyandforhighpower/fastobjectives,makingitimpossibletooptimizeallthecharacteris-charging(seesection3.2.1),sinceenergyincreasesinpropor-ticsatthesametime.Forexample,thereiscross-talkbetweentiontothevolumeofactivematerials,whilepowerincreasesincomponents:newactivematerialsrequireadjustmentstoproportiontotheirsurfacearea.theelectrolytes;inaddition,changesinbatterydesignaffectseverallevelsofthebatteryhierarchy:newactivematerialsHighenergyLIBcanbestbeachievedusingSi-dominatedaffectthewaycellscanbebuiltandrequireadjustmentstoanodesandhighcapacitycathodes,namelyhigh-NiCAM.Athesystem-levelBMS.Alltheseinteractionsmustbetakenintofurtherincreaseinenergy,independentoftheactivematerialsaccountwhenoptimizingLIB.used,canbeachievedbyincreasingelectrodethicknessanddecreasingelectrodeporosity.ThedownsideofthisapproachThetargetsystemofLIBisverycomplexandcannotbesum-isthechallengesassociatedwiththestabilityofbothanodemarizedusingonlythethreechosenparameters:performance,andcathode,whichaffectsbothcyclestabilityandsafety.costandenvironmentalfootprint.Inthefollowing,weassumePossiblesolutionsaretheuseofstabilizingblends(CAM)andthattheothernon-mentionedparameters,suchassafety,life-advancedSi-compatiblebindersandelectrolytes.time,temperaturestability,manufacturabilityandothers,canbemaintainedatleastatthelevelrequiredfortherespectiveFigure32:TechnologicalapproachesandimplementationperspectivefortheperformanceoptimizationofLIB.StatusQuoMid-term2030HighestenergyHigh-NiUltra-high-NiThick&low-Si-basedReq:300Wh/kgGraphite/C2PporosityelectrodesC2CSiOxFastchargingtablessdesignThinCCandSepReq:2C-4CSide/tabcoolingBatteryswapping<400VImmersionOptimizedcoolingBMS800VMateriallevelPacklevelCelllevelManufacturinglevelRecyclinglevel68ImplementationOutlookIftheannouncementsofthemajorcellmanufacturersareAcompletelydifferentsolutionisofferedbybatteryswapanythingtogoby,ultra-highNiCAMcanbetakenforgran-conceptsthatcouldachieveveryshortrefuelingtimesforEVsted.Cellswithmorethan90%Niandwellover200mAh/gwithoutfast-chargingcapability.Sofar,thisoptionisonlyatmateriallevelwillsoonbeonthemarket.ThesituationwithwidelyusedinChina.Si-dominatedAAMismorecautious.Mostoftheannoun-cementsaboutproductionandusearenotcomingfromtheManufacturingprocessesandrecyclingapproachesarenotlargecellmanufacturers,butfromsmallerplayersandstart-explicitlyconsideredintheconceptsaimingtooptimizeLIBups.ThecommercializationofSi-AAMwithcapacitiesaboveperformance.Infact,thebestperformancecanoftenbe1,000mAh/gonalargescalecouldtakeuntilafter2025.achievedbyusingestablishedmanufacturingmethodssuchasNMP-basedcoatingwithPVDF-basedbindersforthecathodeThearrangementofthecellsinthebatterypackalsohasaandsolvent-basedprocesseswithspecializedbindersforthemajorimpactontherealenergydensityattheapplicationanode.Recyclingdesignisalsooftennotconsistentwithachie-level.TheabsenceofmodulesinC2Pconceptscansignificant-vingmaximumperformanceandismademoredifficultbythelyincreaseenergydensity.However,becauseoftheomitteduseofmaterialblends.level,safetymustbeestablishedatthecellandpacklevel.Thiscanbechallenging,particularlyforhigh-energymate-4.1.2.Cost-OptimizedLIBrials.Batteryanalytics,usingdatafromtheBMSinpredictivediagnosticsforageingprediction,performancemonitoringorMaterialandcomponentcostscontinuetorepresentthefailureprevention,isonewaytopreventthermalrunaway.TolargestproportionofLIBcosts.Toreducerawmaterialcosts,thisend,themonitoringofvoltage,currentandtemperatureistheindustryisfocusingonNi-freeandCo-freeLFP.Lithiumcrucialanddifferfortherangeofcellformatsandchemistries.remainsthemaincostdriverinthissystem,butsignificantlylowermaterialcostsarepossiblecomparedtoNMC-basedIndustryroadmapsarehoweverclearonthepointofdirectcellcathodes.Atthecelllevel,however,theadvantageofLFPintegration.Withtheexceptionofsomesportandpremiumcathodesisoffsetbytheirlowerenergydensity.Forthesamesegments,theannouncementsofalmostallmajorOEMsindi-storagecapacity,LFPcellsrequiremoreanodematerial,currentcatethatfuturebatteryconceptswillallowdirectC2P,evenforcollector,separator,electrolyte,andotherpassivecomponentscellswithhigh-energymaterialssuchasNi-richCAM.thanNMCcells.AlthoughthelowercellvoltageofLFPmeansthatfewerexpensiveadditivesneedtobeusedinelectrolytes,Inelectrodeandcelldesign,higherfast-chargingrequirementscostoptimizationstillrequiresfurtherreductionsinpassivemightmeanthatelectrodelayerthicknessesarenotincreasedcomponents,suchasreducingthethicknessofthecurrentanyfurtherandporositiesandcurrentcollectorthicknessescollectorandseparator.arenotreducedanyfurther.Thisadditionalleverforincreasingenergydensitywouldthereforeremainunused.Insomecases,Asecondlevertooptimizecoststhatisincreasinglybeingusedhowever,increasingenergydensityandimprovingfastchar-isthetransitiontolargercellvolumes.Costsavingscanbegingcapabilitygohandinhand,orareatleastnotmutuallyachievedincellmanufacturingandsystem-levelintegration.exclusive.SiasanAAMisoneexample,asthealloyingkineticsThisiswherethecharacteristicsoflow-costLFPgohandinwithLiappeartobesignificantlyfasterthantheintercalationhandwiththeabilitytobeintegrated.C2PapproachesarekineticsofLiingraphite.Thishigh-energymaterialwouldbasedonensuringahighlevelofsafetyatthecelllevel,sothethereforealsoincreasepowerdensity.OtherapproachestomajorityofC2Ppackagesinusetodayactuallyuseprismaticfastchargingaffectthehigherlevelsofcellandsystemdesign.LFPcells,whichcanalsobeclassifiedascomparativelysafe.The"tabless"designofcurrentcollectorsinlargecylindri-calcellscanalreadybeconsideredastandardforallfutureTheuseoftheseapproaches(largeformatLFPcellswithdevelopmentsinthisarea.Atthesystemlevel,approachesreducedpassivecomponents)alsohasdisadvantages.Duetosuchasimmersioncooling,software-basedoptimizationofthethelimitedvoltageandcapacity,LFPwillnotreachtheenergychargingprocessbytheBMSorincreasingthecellvoltagetodensityofthemoreexpensiveNi-basedcells.Thetransitionto800Vshouldfurthercontributetofastchargingcapability.TheLMFP,andinthelong-termtoLMRs,asaCAMcoulddecreaselatterapproach,inparticular,isbeingpursuedbymanyOEMsthisdifference,butitisunclearwhetherthelowcostofLFPandislikelytobecomeincreasinglycommoninthepremiumcellscanbemaintainedwhentransitioningtoLMFPorLMRs.segmentsoverthenextfewyears.TheextenttowhichmoreAtthesystemlevel,largecellsizesalsoimposelimitations.Theexpensivepowerelectronicswillleadtodifferentiationinmid-greatertheenergyinasinglecell,thegreaterthedamageinrangeandentry-levelvehiclesisstillunclear.69ImplementationOutlooktheeventofanaccident.Inaddition,conceptssuchas800VNewproductiontechnologiescouldbringfreshimpetustosystemvoltagebecomeimpossibleduetotherathersmallthecompetitionforlow-costcellsbychangingthecoststruc-numberofcellsinthepack.tureofcellproduction.Althoughcellproductiondoesnotaffectmaterialcosts,itdoesaffectimportantcostcompo-ManyinternationalOEMshavecommittedtoLFPasalow-costnentssuchasenergyandequipment.Thisiswheremanynewoption,atleastfortheirentry-levelmodels.ChineseOEMsprocesstechnologiescomeintoplay:Dryingtimeandenergyhavebeenusingthetechnologyforsometime,whileUSandconsumptioncanbereducedbyfurtherdecreasingthesolventEuropeanOEMseitheralreadyhavemodelswithLFPbatteriescontentintheelectrodecoating.Theuseofaqueouspastesorplantointroducethemby2025.Thistrendalsocontinuescaneliminatetheneedforexpensiveandtime-consuminginthesupplierindustry.Accordingtoannouncements,ChineseNMPrecovery.Newdryingmethods(infra-red,laser)makeitLFPcellmanufacturerswillsoonbejoinedbysomeoftheirpossibletoreducethesizeoftheproductionline.TheultimateSouthKoreanandJapanesecounterparts.SomeEuropeancellgoalhereisdrycoatingandthussignificantcostsavingsinmanufacturersorjointventuresbetweenUSOEMsandAsianelectrodeproduction.Incellassembly,mini-environments,cellmanufacturersarealsoplanningtoentertheLFPmarket.forexample,aredesignedtoreducetheoperatingcostsofWhilethetechnologyitselfisofcourselocation-neutral,atdryingrooms.present,notonlycellproductionbutalsomaterialproductionisessentiallylimitedtoChina.ThisistheresultofthestrategyTodate,allofthesetechnologieshaveonlybeenusedinadoptedbytheChinesegovernmentafewyearsago,aswellisolatedindustrialcases.AholisticmachineryconceptisnotasthefactthatLFPisalow-costtechnology.Chinacurrentlyyetcommerciallyavailable,sothatonlygradualdiffusioncanoffersthemostfavorablelocationconditionsintermsoflabor,beexpectedby2030.Theapplicabilityofsomeoftheaboveenergy,materials,andothercosts.Whethercompetitionfrommentionedprocessesalsodependsstronglyontheactiveotherplayersandregionswillbesuccessful,orwhetherlow-materialsandcelldesignused.Fortunately,mostofthenewcostoptimizationofLIBwillcontinuetobesynonymouswithprocesstechnologiesseemtobecompatiblewiththelow-costmanufacturinginChina,remainstobeseen.materialsLFPandgraphite.ThisispromisingforthelowestFigure33:TechnologicalapproachesandimplementationperspectiveforthecostoptimizationofLIB.StatusQuo20252030LFP,AqueousLMFPDryLMRGraphiteprocesscoatingLowestcostProducationC2PC2CMaterialDirectReq:<100EUR/kWhlocationofrecoveryrecyclinglowestcostLargeStandardizedrecyclingformatsformatsFormatStandardizedvarietyfactoryMateriallevelPacklevelCelllevelManufacturinglevelRecyclinglevel70ImplementationOutlookconceivablecostcell,butitalsomeansthatmanyoftheavailable.Asafutureoption,directrecyclingofactivematerialshigh-energytechnologieswillnotbenefitfromtheseprocesscouldhelptoreducecosts,astheprocessingcostsmightbeinnovationsforthetimebeingandwillstillbeexpensive.lowerthannewsynthesis.Inadditiontotheuseofspecificmanufacturingprocesses,4.1.3.Ecologically-OptimizedLIBproductionscalingisoneofthemostimportantleversforreducingcosts.ThehighproportionofmaterialsinLIBcostsLIBshaveahighecologicalfootprintbecauseofthematerialsisalsotheresultofextensiveoptimizationincellproductionusedandthecomplexmanufacturingprocess.Theadvantagescosts.Sofar,economiesofscalehavebeenachievedprimarilyofLIB-poweredapplicationssuchasEVoftenonlybecomebyincreasingthethroughputofindividualLIBlines.Asecondapparentduringtheirusephase.Thisiswhytheecologicalleveristhestandardizationofcellformatsacrossmodelsandevaluationshouldbebasedonalifecycleassessment(LCA),OEMs,wherebytheproductionvolumeofasinglecelltypewhichincludesthemanufacturingandusephaseaswellasbecomessolargethatitcanbeproducednotonlyonthepost-EoLrecycling.Fortheusephaseinparticular,factorssuchsamelinesinonefactory,butinseveralstandardizedfactories.astheround-tripefficiencyofbatteriesaswellastheircycleThissavescostsinfactorydesignandconstruction,equipmentlifeandcalendarlifecanplayamajorrole.procurement,andpossiblyevenregulatoryapprovals.ThefactthattheindustryismovinginthisdirectionisevidentThetechnologiesusedtooptimizetheecologicalfootprintofnotonlyfromtheopenlycommunicatedmedium-termstrate-LIBsare,inmanycases,thesameasthoseusedtooptimizegiesoftheOEMs(46mmcylindricalcell,"Einheitszelle",etc.),costs.Thismakessense,ascostdriverssuchasenergyandbutalsothe“incidental”appearanceofthesamecelltypesinresourceconsumptionareoftenalsolinkedtothegenerationvehiclesfromdifferentOEMs.ofCO2orotherenvironmentalimpacts.TheimplementationperiodthereforelargelycorrespondstotheroadmapdescribedTheimpactofLIBrecyclingonLIBcostsisstillcontroversial.intheprevioussection(see4.1.2).However,itisoftenassumedthattherecoveryofimportantmetalsfromwasteLIBsshouldbecheaperthanprimarypro-TheenvironmentalimpactofresourceextractionresultsfromductiononceacriticalmarketvolumeofEoLbatteriesbecomesthesometimesextremelyhighquantitiesofmaterialthathaveFigure34:TechnologicalapproachesandimplementationperspectivefortheecologicaloptimizationofLIB.StatusQuomedium-term2030LFPMn-,Fe-basedCAM(LFP,LMFP,LMRs)Prod.locationofHighcyclelifeAAM(LTO)MaterialhighestrenewablesrecoveryEcologically-availability&shortAqueousDryrecyclingDirectoptimizedlogisticsprocesscoatingrecyclingUseofPFASDesignforandsolventsrecyclingMateriallevelPacklevelCelllevelManufacturinglevelRecyclinglevel71ImplementationOutlooktobemovedandprocessedinordertoextractmetalssuchparticular,newproductionsiteswithgoodaccesstorenewableaslithium,cobaltandnickel.Inaddition,chemicals,waterandenergyarebeingtargeted,e.g.,inNorthernEurope,whichhighamountsofenergyareusedduringextraction.ThereshouldhaveverylowCO2emissions.Otherlocationsalsopro-arecorrespondingadvantagestousingiron-andmanganese-misethis.Sofar,however,thelocationofcellfactoriesseemsbasedmaterials,asbothrawmaterialsareeasiertoextracttobebasedsolelyonenergycostsandnotontheavailablethannickelandcobalt.Graphitecanbeminedandproducedelectricitymix.InEurope,forexample,manylocationdecisionssynthetically.TheenvironmentalimpactofminingresultsfromfavorPolandandHungary,whichstillhaveacomparativelythemovementofearthandrock,andthatofsynthesisfromhighshareoffossilfuelsintheirelectricitygenerationmix.thehightemperaturesinvolvedrequiringhighenergyinput.IntermsoftheCO2footprintofmanufacturing,LFPandnaturalThechoiceoflocationaffectsnotonlythecarbonfootprintofgraphite-basedcellsinparticulararelikelytoperformwell.production,butalsotheemissionsassociatedwiththelengthHowever,iftheservicelifeisalsotakenintoaccount,syntheticofthesupplychain.LIBproductiontodayisextremelyglobal,graphitescouldperformbetteroverall(highercyclelife),evennotleastduetothesitesofrawmaterialdeposits.Anecologi-iftheinitialCO2budgetishigher.Thismayalsoapplytoothercallysoundproductionsiteshortensthesupplychainoraimsanodematerials,suchastitanates,whichhaveanextremelytoprocessrawmaterials"onsite".EventhougheconomiclongcyclelifeandleadtolowLCAresultsinapplicationswithmotivationsarelikelytohaveplayedamajorrole,theeffortscorrespondinglyhighrequirements.ofmanyresourcerichcountries,suchasIndonesia(nickel),toincreasethevalueshareofbatteryproductionathomealsoRecently,ecologicalassessmenthasfocusedonanothergrouphaveenvironmentalbenefits,providedthatrenewableelectrici-ofmaterials,theso-calledper-andpolyfluorinatedsubstancestyandotherkeyfactorsareavailable.(PFAS).TheseincludetheelectrolytesaltsusedinLIBsandthebindermaterialPVDF.TherearenoalternativestothesaltsinTheend-of-lifeofLIBsalsohasanimpactontheirenvironmentaltheforeseeablefuture.However,thepossibilitiesforaqueousfootprint.Comparedtotheprimaryextractionofrawmaterials,processingofmanycathodematerialsandgraphiteandtheirrecycledmaterialscanmassivelyreducelocalenvironmentalsmallvolumechangesduringcyclizationallowtheuseofnon-impactssuchasenergyconsumption,earthandrockmovement,PFAS(e.g.,rubberandcellulose-based)binders.andwaterconsumption,especiallyifrecyclingishighlyefficientandthebatteriesaredesignedaccordingly.However,eventhisIncellproductionitself,energyconsumptionprobablyhasapproachdoesnotseemtoplayamajorroleatpresent,asthebiggestinfluenceontheenvironmentalfootprint.Allreflectedforexampleintheuseofadhesivesandfoamsinpackapproachestoreducethis(low-solventcoating,drycoating,constructionorthecontinuingdifficultiesinaccessingSoHdatamini-environments)haveadirectimpactonbothcostsandtheforusedbatteries.“DesignforRecycling”thereforeremainsacarbonfootprint.Inadditiontotheamountofenergyrequi-long-termvisionandisnotincorporatedintoindustryroadmaps.red,productionlocationisalsoanimportantlever.InEuropein72ImplementationOutlook4.2.BatteryDemandandProductionTheglobaldemandforbatterieshasrisenrapidlyinrecentyears,themobilitysectorwereinstalledinpassengercarsandtheparticularlyduetotheshiftinthemobilitysectorfrominter-majoritywereinstalledine-buses.Theveryhighgrowthratesnalcombustionenginevehiclestoelectrically-poweredones.ofrecentyearsarenowslowingdown.In2030,thebatteryHowever,inadditiontothemobilitysector(xEV),batteriesaredemandinthissectorcouldbejustunder3TWh.alsousedinelectroniccommunicationandhouseholdapplian-ces(3C)aswellasinstationaryenergystorage(ESS).Additional3CapplicationsconstitutethesecondlargestmarketforLIB.Inmobilityapplicationsareemergingsuchaselectrifiedtwo-whee-fact,until2015,theywerethelargestmarket.Thegrowthratelers(micromobility).Overall,thebatterymarkethasrecentlyseeninthismarkethasbeenconsistentlybelowthatofxEVandESSannualgrowthratesofbetween30and40%.Accordingto(approx.5-10%).optimisticestimates,totaldemandforLIBcouldexceed1TWhforthefirsttimein2023andsurpass3TWhin2030(2.5toTheESSmarketcouldexpandthemostinthenextfewyears4.5TWhaccordingtoourminimumandmaximumscenarios).andachievegrowthratesabove20%.Thismarketisessentialforglobalpowersupplyduetotheexpansionofrenewable4.2.1.BatteryMarketsenergyandcouldovertakethe3CmarketforthefirsttimeinandDemandForecast2023.Theprojectedmarketsizein2030isaround300GWh.Micromobility(e.g.,two-wheelerslikemotorcyclesorscoo-Themobilitysectordominatesoverallbatterydemand.Intersandthree-wheelersliketuk-tuks)playsamajorrolehere,2022,approximately75%oflithium-ionbatterieswereespeciallyinemergingmarkets.IndiaandChinaarethelargestinstalledinvehiclesandthemajorityofthese(>90%)weredemandregionsfortheseapplications.By2030,theESSinstalledinpassengercars.Thisratiowasdifferentuntilthemarketcouldbesimilarinsizetothe3Cmarket(approximatelymid-2010s.In2015,forexample,justunder40%ofLIBin130GWh).Inadditiontotheexamplesgiven,thereareotherLIBapplicationsintrains,shipsoraircraft.However,batteryFigure35:Forecastofthedemandforlithium-ionbatteriesinvariousapplications.5,0004,000LIBdemand(GWh)3,0002,0001,0000202220242026202820302020MaxxEVESS3CMicromobilityOtherMin73ImplementationOutlookelectrificationisnotexpectedtoplayamajorroleintheseForecastanodematerialsectors(especiallyinaviation)untilafter2030.GraphitewillremainthemostwidelyusedanodematerialOverthepastfewyears,thedemandforecastforLIBhasuntil2030.Accordingly,therearelargeglobalproductionincreasedsteadily.However,somefactorscouldnowslowthiscapacitiesandindividualproductionsites,particularlyforarti-growth.Ontheonehand,subsidyprogramsforelectricmobil-ficialgraphite.Upto4megatonsofproductioncapacitycouldityarecomingtoanend[390],andontheother,demandbeinstalledby2028,mainlyinAsia.Infullcells,graphitecanforBEVs,forexample,isfallingduetothecurrenteconomicdeliveraspecificenergyof1,100to1,300Wh/kg.Takingintosituation[391,392].accountscraprates,utilizationandgenerallosses,4megatonsofproductioncapacityyieldsapprox.2.8TWhofcellcapacity.4.2.2.BatteryMaterialGraphiteisalsorequiredfortheproductionofsomesiliconandCellProductioncompositeanodes.Comparedtographiteanodes,silicon(com-posite)anodescanachievesignificantlyhigherspecificenergyIfthecurrentcapacitiesofmaterialandcellmanufacturersdensitiesof2,500Wh/kgand,dependingontheSicontent,(production)arecomparedwithcurrentdemand,thereseemsupto10,000Wh/kgforfullsiliconutilization.Togetherwithtobeaslightoversupply.Inordertoanalyzethesupplysit-smallerquantitiesofLTOaswellashardandsoftcarbons,uationinthefuture,wereviewedandcomparedtheannoun-anodematerialforalmost3.5TWhofLIBcouldbeproducedcedproductioncapacitiesofactivematerialmanufacturersin2028.discussedinchapter3.1andtheproductioncapacityofcellmanufacturers(chapter3.2).Todoso,theproductionvolumesForecastcathodematerialneedtobecorrectedbyscrapratesandcapacityutilizationofindividualproductionfacilities.WhiletherewasthreetimesmoreNMCproductioncapacityin2020comparedtoLFPproductioncapacity,by2028,theDuetotheannouncement-basedapproach,nomeaningfuldifferencewillonlyamountto30%byweightaccordingcapacityforecastscanbemadeuntilafter2028.Manufactu-toindustryannouncements.NMCcathodes(dependingonrersusuallyannouncetheconstructionofnewfactorieswithatheexactcomposition)achieveanaverageof600Wh/kg,shortertimeline.whereasLFPcathodescanonlyachievearound500Wh/kg.Figure36:Basescenariooftheplanned(announced)globalproductioncapacitiesforactivematerialsandcellsaswellasdemandforecast.5,000Productionanddemand(GWh)4,0003,0002,0001,0000202220252028202220252028202220252028202220252028AnodeproductionCathodeproductionCellproductionMarketdemand74ImplementationOutlookBasedontheconversionfactors,around1.2TWhcouldbeThemaximumscenariocouldreachaproductioncapacityproducedfromthe3.4megatonsofannouncedNMCcathodeofmorethan8TWhby2030(around7.4TWhin2028).productioncapacityin2028,andaround800GWhfromtheThisrepresentsafourfoldincreasefromthemaximumcapa-2.6megatonsLFPproductioncapacity.NCAproductioncapa-citiesannouncedbytheendof2023.Theminimumscenariocitiescouldaccountfor250GWhofbatterycapacity(approx.onlyachievesroughlyonethirdofthisvaluein2028(2.8TWh).600kilotons).LCOandLMOonlyaccountforsmallerquanti-Thebasescenarioachievesnearly6TWhby2030,andisties.Intotalandcorrectedbyscrapratesandplantutilization,thereforeclosertothemaximumscenario.However,in2028,itapprox.2.4TWhofcellscouldbeproducedwiththematerialsiscenteredbetweentheminimumandmaximumscenariowithfromtheannouncedCAMproductionfacilitiesin2028.roughly5TWh.Since,comparedtothemaximumsce-nario,thebasescenarioassumesasignificantlylowerrealisticForecastcellproductionproductioncapacitybytheendof2023(around1TWh),theincreasehereuntiltheendofthedecadeisevengreaterWhetherornotglobalbatterydemandin2030canbemetthaninthemaximumscenario(increasessixfolduntil2030).willdependheavilyonhowmanyofthegloballyannouncedproductionfacilitiescanbeimplementedandoperatedintime.ComparisonofproductioncapacitiesThreescenarios(maximum,baseandminimum)weredevelo-withcelldemandpedtoestimaterealisticproductioncapacities:Toassessthefuturesupplysituation,thebatterydemandfore-Themaximumscenarioassumesfullrealizationofallproduc-castfor2028wascomparedwiththeannouncedproductiontioncapacitiesthatwerean-nouncedwithaspecifiedproduc-capacityscenariosoftheactivematerialandcellproducers.tionsiteorwheretherequiredinvestmentsseemsecure.Figure36showsthattheannouncedproductioncapacitiesThebasescenarioincludedadelayofoneyear(realSoPversusexceedthedemandforLIB.IfthisexcesscapacitycontinuesinannouncedSoP)aswellasa75%utilizationofthecapaci-thefuture,someoftheannouncedproductionsitesmaybetiesduetoscrapormaintenance.Theminimumscenarioonlypostponedorevencancelled.However,itcannotberuledoutincludedtheannouncementsofmanufacturerswhoalreadythatadditionalannouncementsmaybemadeorthatbatteryproducebatterycellsonalargescaletodayandthetimedelaydemanddevelopsevenmoredynamicallythanassumedintheandutilizationratewerethesameasinthebasescenario.comingyears.Figure37:ComparisonofglobalactivematerialandcellproductioncapacitiesaswellasbatterycelldemandProductionanddemand(GWh)for2028.8,0006,0004,0002,0000CathodeCellMarketAnodeproductionproductiondemandproductionMinBaseMaxRelativetobasescenario:ProductionovercapacityProductionundercapacity75ImplementationOutlookIntermsofactivematerials,itcanbeseenthattheannoun-regardingmaterialproductioncapacitiesinthenextfiveyears.cedanodecapacitiesareslightlyhigherthantheannouncedItisthusverylikelythatthesupplycapacityforactivematerialscathodecapacities,butthatbothfallshortoftheannouncedwillincreasefurthertoward2030.cellproductioncapacities.Thesupplygapinactivematerialproductionwouldbemorethan2.5TWhonthecathodesideEstimatedrecyclingvolumeandaround1.5TWhontheanodesideinthebasescenario.Comparedtothebatterydemandforecast,thesupplygapThedataavailabledonotmakeitpossibletoforecastrecyclingofactivematerialproductionismuchsmallerforcathodecapacitieswiththesamedegreeofreliabilityasforproductionmaterialorevenexceedsthedemand(anodeproduction)involumes.Thedemandforrecyclingisstilllowatpresentduetothebasescenario.thesmallnumberofEoLbatteries,andthematerialtoberecycledmainlyconsistsofproductionscrap.However,fromItmustbemonitoredhowtheannouncedoversupplyofcell2030onwards,tractionbatteriesareexpectedtoplayanproductionfacilitiesdevelops(section3.2.5).Lookingattheincreasinglyimportantroleandwillbecomedominantinrecyc-supplychainfromrawmaterialstocells,manyOEMshavelatereturnquantitiesinthe2030s.Theglobalrecyclingvolumebeenfocusingoncellproduction.OtherprojectsseemtobefromEoLLIBandproductionscrapcouldrisetoapprox.investor-drivenandindicatethatthehighmarketdynamicsin1.6megatonsin2030[282].Otheraspectsmakeprojectionsthebatterysectorarecloselylinkedtocellproduction.Thisisevenmoredifficultsuchasuncertaintiesaboutbatteryservicewhytherearecurrentlymanyannouncementsconcerningcelllifeandwhetherbatteryusageinsecond-lifeapplicationswillgigafactories.Theup-streamproductionsteps,ontheotherpostponerecycling.Itislikelythatfurtherindustrialactivitieshand,havenotyetreceivedasmuchattentionfromtheauto-willbeannouncedinthenextfewyearssothatsufficientmotiveindustry.Theseareofteninthehandsoflargecong-recyclingcapacitiesarerealistic.Intermsofsecond-lifeapplica-lomerates.Thesegroupsarekeepingacloseeyeonmarkettions,forexample,volumesbetween110and>200GWhdemandandareabletoplanandcommunicateanycorre-areestimatedperyear[393]–assumingthatthecurrentspondingincreasesincapacityatshortnoticeandmuchmorechallengesareovercome.conservatively.Thisfocusoncellproductioncouldchangeinthefutureandweexpecttoseeadditionalannouncements76ImplementationOutlook4.3.AEuropeanBatteryAnumberofchallengesneedtobeaddressedtobuildupaImportantplayershereareUmicore,BASFandNorthvolt,competitive,independent,andsustainableEuropeanbatterybutalsotheChineseandSouthKoreanmanufacturersBeijingecosystem:Easpring,XTCandEcopro.CAPEX,investmentconditions:SubsidiesandfundingIntheLFPsector,however,theindustryinEuropeappearstomechanisms(suchasIPCEI)canhelpcreateamorelevelbeweaker.LMFP,oneofthemorerecentandveryimportantplayingfieldandattractinvestments.However,streamlininginnovations,originatedinChinaandwascommercializedthere.bureaucraticprocessesandreducingtime-intensiveproce-Sofar,thereisnomajororestablishedplayerthatwantstodureswouldalsohelptoacceleratethedevelopmentoftheproduceLFPinEurope.CompaniessuchasIBU-TecandNanobatteryecosysteminthiscriticalphase.OneMaterialsareactiveonasmallerscale,buttheydonotplantooperatelarge-scaleplants.EuropeancellmanufacturersEnergycosts:Ensuringinternationallycompetitiveenergywillthereforecontinuetobedependentonimportsofthiscostsisessentialtonarrowthegaptootherregionslikeimportantmaterialforlow-costbatteriesinthelongterm.ChinaandtheUSA.Thiscanbeachievedthroughpoliciesthatpromotecost-effectiveandsustainableenergysources.Bothstart-upsandestablishedplayersarealsoworkingonanodematerials,especiallynext-generationmaterials(e.g.,Skilledworkforce:Developingaskilledworkforcewithsilicon,graphene),sothatEuropecertainlyhastechnologicalexpertiseinscaledproductionisessentialforasuccessfulexpertiseinthesematerials.However,thisexpertiseisratherEuropeanbatteryecosystem.Investmentsineducation,sporadicanddoesnotfullyencompassallcellcomponentstraining,andre/upskillingprogramscanhelpbridgethe(e.g.,alsoelectrolytes,separators,etc.).skillsgap.WhilecathodematerialsarealreadybeingproducedinEurope,Localvaluechaincreation:Establishingasustainableandsofar,thereisnomajormanufacturerofanodematerials.self-sufficientvaluechainiscrucial.ThisincludesaddressingTheplantsplannedinthenextfewyearsbyEuropeanandissuesrelatedtotheEuropeanBatteryDirective,ensuringAsiancompanies,e.g.,Vianode,Talga,ShanghaiPutailaiandaccesstorawmaterials,promotingrecycling,andexploringEpsilon,relatetographiteproduction.Largeplantsforthepro-potentialalternativetechnologieslikeNa-ionbatteries.ductionofSimaterialshavenotyetbeenannounced,althoughElkem,Wakkerandotherscertainlyhavetherelevanttechno-ThestillfragmentednatureoftheEU-widebatterylandscapelogicalexpertiseinEurope.requiresjointeffortsandcollaborationamongcountries.Com-biningcomplementarystrengthsandresourcescanhelpbuildCellproductionastrongerandmorecompetitiveecosystemthatcanserveasacounterweighttoAsia.TherearedynamicactivitieswithinEuropewithmorethan2TWhofcellproductioncapacitiesannounced,whichwouldTherearestrongOEMinthedownstreamvaluechain,whoarecomeclosetothegoalofhaving30%ofglobalbatterycelldrivingthedemandforbat-teriesinEuropeandconsequentlyproductionlocatedinEurope.ManycompaniesarejostlingtheneedtodeveloplocalupstreamsupplychainsaswellasforapositionontheEUmarket,whichmakestheupcomingrecyclingcapacitiesinordertoachievehigh-volumeproductionramp-upmoreresilient,e.g.,tostart-upfailure.BothEuro-andacircularbat-teryeconomyinthecomingyears.Thespeci-peanandnon-EuropeancompanieshaveannouncedplanstoficEuropeanindustrializationactivitiesfrommaterials,compo-developproductioncapacitiesofasimilarmagnitudeby2030.nents,cellstorecyclingcanbesummedupasshownbelow.Currently,therearemorenon-Europeancompanies,butashifttowardEuropeancompaniesispossibleafter2025.ActivematerialsInthefieldofhighNiCAM,someEuropeanmanufacturersAnincreasingshareofLFPbatteriescouldmaketheEuropeanhaveproductsonthemarketandsupplytocellproduction,batterycelleconomymorecostcompetitive.Energycostshavee.g.,UmicoreanditscustomersSamsungSDIandSKOn.Theasignificantimpact,butrawmaterialcostsaremoreimport-developmentofproductionfacilitiesforcathodematerialsant,andthesefluctuatestrongly.Securingcontractsandstock-mainlyrelatestoNMCsandthustohigh-energymaterials.piling,asplannedbytheEU,couldmitigatetheseeffects.77ImplementationOutlookFigure38:BasescenariooftheplannedproductioncapacitiesforactivematerialsandcellsaswellasdemandforecastinEurope.Additionallyacomparisonofdemandandsupplyin2028.1,000Productionanddemand(GWh)8006004002000202220252028202220252028202220252028202220252028AnodeproductionCathodeproductionCellproductionIndustrydemandRelativetobasescenario:ProductionovercapacityProductionundercapacityThereareonlyafewdirectjointventures(JV)tosetupcellaswellasnon-EuropeancompanieslikeLi-CycleandRedwoodfactories,butfurtherstrategicJVs(e.g.,PowerCo+Gotion)Materials.ParticularlyinAmericaandEurope,recyclingactivi-canleadtoatransferofknowledge.tiesaredividedintospokes(pre-treatmentandproductionofblackmass)andhubs(materialrecovery).AccordingtorecentAttractingcellmanufacturerstoEuropewasthereforesuccess-announcements,spokestendtobemoredecentralizedandful,butnowitisimportanttorealizetheplanswithinhubslargeplantsforactualmetallurgicalrecycling.theannouncedtimeframes.MostindustrycapacityformaterialrecoveryisexpectedtoRecyclingbelocatedinChina(amountingtoapprox.3,300kilotonsperyearuntil2030)butsubstantialcapacitieshavealsobeenRecyclinginEuropeisdrivenmainlybytheEuropeanannouncedforEurope.Anadditionalcapacityof~40kilotonsBatteriesRegulation,whichenteredintoforceinAugust2023.peryear(hubs)and130kilotonsperyear(spokes)isplannedTheregulationfeaturestargetsforwastebatterycollection,inGermanyaloneuntil2030.Sitesareoftenplannedinclosematerialrecoveryfromwastebatteries,mandatoryminimumproximitytobatterymaterialproducers,batterycellmanufac-levelsofrecycledcontentandrecyclingefficiency.Therespecti-turersorautomotivemanufacturers.Thus,marketdynamicsinvetargetswillbeintroducedgraduallyfrom2025onwards.theEuropeanregionaredriven,amongotherthings,bytheestablishmentofbatterycellproductionsites.Marketactivitieshavealreadystartedtoemerge,ashighreturnIstheannouncedsupplyofmaterialsandvolumesofusedbatteriesfromelectricvehiclesareexpectedcellssufficienttomeetthedemandforbatteries?fromthe2030sonwards.ProjectsinEuropeincludebigandwell-establishedcompaniessuchasUmicore,BASFandauto-Inordertoanalyzethesupplyanddemandforcellsinanindi-motiveOEMSsuchasMercedes-BenzorVolkswagen,new-vidualregion,cellproductionmustbecomparedwithdemandcomersinstallingpilots,suchasNorthvolt’sRevolt,Düsenfeld78ImplementationOutlookinindustry,whichtheninstallsthecellsinBEVsorsmart-Todate,thereisnorelevantmaterialproductioncapacityphones,forexample.Marketdemandcanbeequatedwith(7MWhanodeand11MWhcathode)locatedinEurope.industrialbatterydemandsothatitbecomesclearwhetherMaterialsforthesitesalreadyproducingcellshavetobearegionimportsorexportsmoreproductscontainingbatte-imported.Overthenextfewyears,theaimistodeveloparies.Comparedtotheinternationalaverage,thedemandforsupplystructureinEuropetolowertheneedforimports.InbatteriesinEuropeisdominatedbytheautomotiveindustry.particular,cathodeproductioncapacities(375GWh)butalsoLargeOEMssuchasVolkswagenandStellantishaveseveralanodeproductioncapacities(160GWh)willbeinstalledbyvehicleplantsaswellassalesmarketsinEuropeand,as2028.Ascathodesaremoreexpensiveduetotheirrawmate-discussedinchapter2.2,theirdemandforcellsisveryhigh.rials,thecorrespondingrevenuesarehigherhereandIn2022,thedemandforbatteriesinEuropeanindustryproductioninEuropeitselfismoreinteresting.However,amountedtoaround150GWhandthiscouldrisetoalmostneithercathodenoranodeproductioncanmeetindustry’s200GWhin2023.Thedemandforbatteriescurrentlyexceedsdemandforbatteriesofaround550GWhin2028andthuscellproductionbyaround200%.However,manynewpro-thereisscopeforadditionalcapacityannouncements.Theductionsiteshavebeenannouncedforthecomingyears.deficitsincreasecorrespondinglyifcellproductionexpandsinInabasescenario,upto4,000GWhofproductioncapacitylinewiththeannouncementsmade.Therewouldbeaproduc-couldbedevelopedinEuropeby2030.Someoftheseannoun-tioncapacityshortfallof600or800GWh.cementsarefromnewplayersonthemarket.TheirlackofexperiencemightmeandelaysincommissioningproductionMarketdemandisabout10%lowerthanindustrialbatteryfacilities(section3.2.5).Aswiththeanalysisofglobalproduc-demand.Germancarmanufacturersinparticularareexpectedtionsites,someproductionsitesmightnotgointooperationtobeabletoexporthighvolumesofelectricvehiclesintheatall,e.g.,duetolessfavorableeconomicconditions.Somefuture.Thisoverdemandwillbereducedbyimports,particular-oftheannouncedproductioncapacitiesarealreadyonhold.lyfromChina.Possiblereasonsincludeelectricitypricesortaxadvantages,suchastheIRA,inotherregions.79ListofAbbreviationsListofAbbreviations80AbbreviationDescription2W,3WTwowheel,threewheel(electricvehicle)3CConsumer,computing,communicationAAMAnodeactivematerialBEVBatteryelectricvehicleBMSBatterymanagementsystemBTMSBatterythermalmanagementsystemCChargeordischargeC-rateC2CCell-to-chassisconceptC2PCell-to-packconceptCAMCathodeactivematerialCNTCarbonnanotubeEoLEnd-of-lifeEPOEuropeanPatentOfficeESSEnergystoragesystem(stationary)EVElectricvehicleGHGGreenhousegasHEHigh-energyHPHigh-powerHVHigh-voltageICE(Vehiclewith)internalcombustionengineIoTInternetofthingsIRAUSinflationreductionactKPIKeyperformanceindicatorLCALifecycleassessmentLFPLithium-iron-phosphate(olivine-like)ListofAbbreviationsAbbreviationDescriptionLIBLithium-ionbatteryLMFPLithium-manganese-iron-phosphate(olivine-like)LMNOLithium-manganese-nickel-oxide(spinel)LMOLithium-manganese-oxide(spinel)LMRLithium-andmanganese-richoxideLMTLightmeansoftransportLTOLithium-titanateNCALithium-nickel-cobalt-aluminum-oxide(layered)NGNaturalgraphiteNMCLithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide(layered)NMCALithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-aluminum-oxide(layered)NMCxyzNMCwithx:y:zgivingtheratioofNi:Mn:CoNMPN-methyl-2-pyrrolidoneNMXLithium-nickel-manganese-oxide(layered)containingothermetalsOEMOriginalequipmentmanufacturerPCMPhasechangematerialPFASPer-andpolyfluorinatedsubstancesPHEVPlug-inhybridelectricvehiclePVDFPolyvinylidenefluorideSG,AGSyntheticgraphite,artificialgraphiteSHEStandardhydrogenelectrodeSIBSodium-ionbatterySoCState-of-chargeSoHState-of-healthSSBSolid-statebatteryTRLTechnologyreadinesslevelV2GVehicle-to-gridconceptWIPOWorldIntellectualPropertyOrganizationWLTPWorldwideHarmonizedLightVehiclesTestProcedure81ReferencesReferences[1]T.Schmaltz,T.Wicke,L.Weymann,P.Voß,C.Neef,A.Thiel-[8]IEA,GlobalEVOutlook2023,Paris,2023,https://www.iea.mann,Solid-StateBatteryRoadmap2035+,FraunhoferInstituteorg/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023forSystemsandInnovationResearchISI,2022,https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/isi/dokumente/cct/2022/SSB_Road-[9]S.Link;C.Neef;T.Wicke;TrendsinAutomotiveBatteryCellmap.pdfDesign:AStatisticalAnalysisofEmpiricalData;Batteries;9(5),261;2023,https://doi.org/10.3390/batteries9050261[2]A.Stephan,T.Hettesheimer,C.Neef,T.Schmaltz,S.Link,M.Stephan,J.L.Heizmann,A.Thielmann,AlternativeBattery[10]A.MahmoudzadehAndwari,A.Pesiridis,S.Rajoo,R.TechnologiesRoadmap2030+;FraunhoferInstituteforSystemsMartinez-Botas,V.Esfahanian;AreviewofBatteryElectricandInnovationResearchISI,2023,https://www.isi.fraunhofer.Vehicletechnologyandreadinesslevels;RenewableandSustai-de/content/dam/isi/dokumente/cct/2023/abt-roadmap.pdfnableEnergyReviews,Volume78,414-430;2017,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.138[3]S.Link,C.Neef,T.Wicke,T.Hettesheimer,M.Diehl,O.Krätzig,F.Degen,F.Klein,P.Fanz,M.Burgard,R.Kleinert,[11]M.Herberz,U.J.J.Hahnel,T.Brosch;Counteractingelec-Developmentperspectivesforlithium-ionbatterycellformats,tricvehiclerangeconcernwithascalablebehaviouralinterven-FraunhoferInstituteforSystemsandInnovationResearchISI,tion;NatureEnergy,7,503–510,2022,https://doi.org/10.1038/2022,https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/isi/s41560-022-01028-3dokumente/cct/2022/Development_perspectives_for_lithium-ion_battery_cell_formats_Fraunhofer_2022.pdf[12]T.Yuksei,J.J.Michalek;EffectsofRegionalTemperatureonElectricVehicleEfficiency,Range,andEmissionsintheUnited[4]F.M.Bass,Commentson“ANewProductGrowthforStates;EnvironmentalS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