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MISSION CRITICAL: BUILDING THE GLOBAL

WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN

FOR A 1.5°C WORLD

GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL

Disclaimer and Acknowledgments

Disclaimer

This publication and the material herein are

provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions

have been taken by the copyright holders to

verify the reliability of the material in this

publication. However, neither GWEC and BCG,

nor any of their ofcials, agents, data or other

third-party content providers provides a

warranty of any kind, either expressed or

implied, and they accept no responsibility or

liability for any consequence of use of the

publication or material herein.

The information contained herein does not

necessarily represent the views of all Members

of GWEC and its constituent associations. The

designations employed and the presentation of

material herein do not imply the expression of

any opinion on the part of GWEC or BCG

concerning the legal status of any region,

country, territory, city or area or of its

authorities, or concerning the delimitation of

frontiers or boundaries.

Consulting Group

This work is subject to copyright. Its content,

including text and graphics, may be reproduced

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attribution. Unless otherwise stated, material in

this publication may be freely used, shared,

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Citation

Global Wind Energy Council and Boston

Consulting Group (2023), Mission Critical:

Building the global wind energy supply chain

for a 1.5°C world.

Acknowledgments

This report was produced by the Global Wind

Energy Council and co-authored by the Global

Wind Energy Council and Boston Consulting

Group. The lead authors of this report were

Feng Zhao, Joyce Lee and Ben Backwell

(GWEC) and Jens Gjerrild and Lars Holm

(BCG).

The authors wish to thank Carsten Brinck,

Shashi Barla and Christos Chronopoulos

(Brinckmann), Haoran Li, Jieying He and

Guiyong Yu (Chinese Wind Energy Association),

Maf Smith (Lumen Energy & Environment) and

Jianrong Zhou (ELKEM) for providing data for

selected components and materials, as well as

Matthew Watkins, Aisling Hubert, Chenfei Wang

(CRU), Shashi Barla (Brinckmann) and Daan De

Jonge (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence) for

providing additional content for selected

materials.

Published

1 December 2023

Design

Lemonbox

www.lemonbox.co.uk

GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL

Foreword 2

Executive Summary 3

Chapter 1: Global Status and Outlook of the Wind Supply Chain 10

Global ﬁndings on the wind supply chain 11

Looking ahead to 2030 16

Chapter 2: Deep Dive into the Global Wind Supply Chain 22

Turbine Nacelles 25

Key Components 30

Key Materials 46

Offshore Wind Balance of Plant 56

Offshore Wind Enablers 65

Chapter 3: Recommendations to Secure the Wind Supply Chain 73

Appendix 78

Table of Contents

GWEC | BCG | MISSION CRITICAL: BUILDING THE GLOBAL WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5°C WORLD

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MISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLDGLOBALWINDENERGYCOUNCILDisclaimerandAcknowledgmentsGLOBALWINDENERGYCOUNCILDisclaimercountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsCitationselectedcomponentsandmaterials,aswellasThispublicationandthematerialhereinareauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofGlobalWindEnergyCouncilandBostonMatthewWatkins,AislingHubert,ChenfeiWangprovided“asis”.Allreasonableprecautionsfrontiersorboundaries.ConsultingGroup(2023),MissionCritical:(CRU),ShashiBarla(Brinckmann)andDaanDehavebeentakenbythecopyrightholderstoBuildingtheglobalwindenergysupplychainJonge(BenchmarkMineralIntelligence)forverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthis©GlobalWindEnergyCouncilandBostonfora1.5°Cworld.providingadditionalcontentforselectedpublication.However,neitherGWECandBCG,ConsultingGroupmaterials.noranyoftheirofficials,agents,dataorotherAcknowledgmentsthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesaThisworkissubjecttocopyright.Itscontent,ThisreportwasproducedbytheGlobalWindPublishedwarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorincludingtextandgraphics,maybereproducedEnergyCouncilandco-authoredbytheGlobal1December2023implied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorinpartfornon-commercialpurposes,withfullWindEnergyCouncilandBostonConsultingliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseoftheattribution.Unlessotherwisestated,materialinGroup.TheleadauthorsofthisreportwereDesignpublicationormaterialherein.thispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,FengZhao,JoyceLeeandBenBackwellLemonboxcopied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,(GWEC)andJensGjerrildandLarsHolmwww.lemonbox.co.ukTheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotprovidedthatappropriateacknowledgementis(BCG).necessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersgiventotheauthororganisationsastheofGWECanditsconstituentassociations.Thesource(s)andcopyrightholders.MaterialinthisTheauthorswishtothankCarstenBrinck,designationsemployedandthepresentationofpublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmayShashiBarlaandChristosChronopoulosmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofbesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseand(Brinckmann),HaoranLi,JieyingHeandanyopiniononthepartofGWECorBCGrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromGuiyongYu(ChineseWindEnergyAssociation),concerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,thesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredMafSmith(LumenEnergy&Environment)andbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial.JianrongZhou(ELKEM)forprovidingdataforTableofContentsForeword2ExecutiveSummary3Chapter1:GlobalStatusandOutlookoftheWindSupplyChain10Globalfindingsonthewindsupplychain11Lookingaheadto203016Chapter2:DeepDiveintotheGlobalWindSupplyChain22TurbineNacelles25KeyComponents30KeyMaterials46OffshoreWindBalanceofPlant56OffshoreWindEnablers65Chapter3:RecommendationstoSecuretheWindSupplyChain73Appendix78GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD1ForewordBenBackwellTheworldtodayisconfrontingabeeninsufficientinrecentyears,ensuringmarketscanprovideCEO,GlobalWindEnergyCouncilseriesofmacrochallenges,amongandhasseensetbacksinitsabilityclearandbankabledemand2themclimatechange,thelackoftomakeforward-lookingsignals;shapingtradepolicytoenergysecurityandenergyinvestmentsinsupply,duetobuildcompetitiveindustries,ratheraccess,andrisinginflationandinsufficientmarketvolumecausedthanpursuingdefensiveunsustainabledebtlevels,bypolicyandregulatorymechanisms;andundertakingparticularlyindevelopingchallenges.powermarketreformtoboosteconomies.ScalinguprenewableinvestmentcertaintyandreflecttheenergywillgoalongwaytoThisreport,deliveredbyGWECinbroadersocietalbenefitsofwindmitigatethesechallenges.IfwellpartnershipwithBostonConsultingpower.managed,theglobalenergyGroup,isthefirstcomprehensivetransitioncanbringprosperity,studyofitskindwhichperformsaCleantechnologymanufacturingisjusticeandresiliencetodeepdiveacrossthewindenergyoneofthemostpressingcommunitiesaroundtheworld.supplychain,fromnacellestochallengesandopportunitiesofcomponentstomaterialstothecurrentclimateandenergyTosupportthetransition,politicaloffshorewindbalanceofplant.Thedebate.Weneedcollaborativemomentumisgatheringaroundareportassessestheimplicationsthinkingandactionontrade,targetoftriplingglobalrenewableforenergytransitionpolicyacrossfinanceandpolicymeasuresthatenergycapacityby2030,whichfourfuturemacroeconomiccaneffectivelyrespondtothewouldtranslatetogrowingthescenariosby2030,andtheclimateemergency.Workingwithinstalledwindfleetbyroughly3broaderwindsupplychainkeypartners,governmentsandthetimestoreachatleast2.7TWbylandscape,marketsizeandindustry,GWECwillcontinuetheendofthedecade.Achievingreturns.buildingupontheworkcontainedthisleapinwindcapacitywillinthisreporttosecuretheglobalrequirearapidandsustainedOuranalysisreflectskeyactionwindsupplychainfora1.5°Cramp-upininvestmentinordertoareasforpolicymakersandpathway.buildastrongerglobalsupplyindustry,andoutlinestheneedchainforthewindindustry.forstrongercollaborationtoensurethewindsupplychainisThisisawatershedmomentforinplaceforanetzerofuture.gettingtradeandindustrialpolicyAboveall,actionmustfocuson:inshapefora1.5°Cworld.Thescalingupvolumeandwindsupplychainishighlyglobalpredictabilityinthewindpipeline;innature,withastrongfocusinindustrialisingthewindsectorwithChinagivenitssizeabledomesticmoreglobalandmodulardesigns;demand.ButfromEuropetothebalancingregionalsupplychainAmericas,thesupplychaininsecuritywithcontinuedandsomekeyregionsoftheworldhasenhancedglobalinterlinkages,GWEC.NETEXECUTIVESUMMARYGWECECFSUPPLYCHAINREPORT2023ExecutiveSummaryMissionCritical:Buildingtheglobalwindnationalindustrialstrategy.Thisisenergysupplychainfora1.5°CworldalsoreflectiveoftheanticipatedgrowthofwinddeploymentintheirhomemarketsandthewiderAPAC,EuropeandAmericasregions.Increasingly,policymakershaveTheglobalwindenergysupplydeliverit,isstilllaggingfarbehindtechnologicalinnovations.Thesefocusedonensuringresilienceatthechainisexposedtomanyinternaltheselevels.By2030,theGlobalfactorshavefuelleda‘racetothenationallevelnotsimplyintermsofandexternalchallengingfactors.WindEnergyCouncil(GWEC)bottom’approachtocostscombinedpowerflows,butalsointheabilitytoThiscomesatatimewhenpoliticalforecaststhatwewillreachjustmorewitha‘racetothetop’thinkingonexpandgeneratingandproductionmomentumisgrowingtosetatargetthan2TWofinstalledwindcapacityturbinesize,leadingtogrowingcapacity.forthetriplingofrenewableenergyworldwide,leavingasizeablegapoftechnicalriskandalowlevelofcapacityby2030,tosupportthe650-1,500GWbetweengrowthserialproduction.Fourbroaderchallengesimpactingdeliveryof1.5°Cscenarioswhichundercurrentpoliciesanda1.5°Cglobalwindsupplychainsareseewindenergyasthebackboneofpathway.3FromEuropetotheAmericas,supplyexploredinthisreport:afuturepowersystem.chaininvestmentinsomeoftheThisreportoutlinesthestatusoftheworld’skeyregionshasbeenlMarketvolumeandpowerpriceInternationalenergyagenciesandglobalwindsupplychainunderinsufficientinrecentyears,mainlyvolatilityisincreasinginmanynetzeroroadmapsagreeonthebusiness-as-usual(BAU)andnetduetostop-startgovernmentmarkets.Failedauctions,projectprimaryroleofwindenergyonthezeroscenariosforgrowthto2030,policies,permittingbottlenecksandcancellations,inflationaryimpactsroadtonetzero.IRENA’sWorldinvestigatesfuturemacroalackofclarityandregularcadenceonsupplychaincomponents,EnergyTransitionsOutlookforeseesgeopoliticalandeconomicoutlooksfortenders.Marketdesignandshippingandlogistics–aswellas3,040GWcumulativeonshorewindimpactingthesupplychain,andpolicyframeworksoverlyfocusedontherisingcostofcapital–areallby2030and494GWofoffshorepresentstheprioritiesforindustrypowercosthaveunintentionallyledimpactingtheinvestmentcaseforwindby2030,orabout3.5TWofandpolicymakerstoputtheindustrytorazor-thinornegativemarginswindenergy.totalwindinstalledby2030.1ThebackontracktodeliveronglobalwhilefailingtoaccountforhigherIEA’sNetZeroby2050Scenariodecarbonisationgoals.financingandmaterialcosts,makinglPolicysignalsarepreventingthecallsfor2.75TWofcumulativewindinvestmentinsupplychainsunviable.industryfromadjustingandinstallationsin2030,with320GWVolatilepolicyandmarketscalingproductioncapacity.installedin2030alone.2ThiswoulddemandhaveledtoscalingInChina,India,EuropeandtheUSSupplychainactorsinmanyareasrequiretoday’sglobalinstalledwindhesitancy,under-–hometoexistingproductionhubsoftheworldhavebeenrightlyfleettoscaleupby3-3.5timesoverintdustrialisationandforthewindsupplychain–hesitanttoadjusttheircapacitythenext7yearsto2030.localisationpressuresgovernmentsareaimingtoincreasedownwardsgiventheanticipatedThewindindustryisincreasinglymanufacturingcapacityaspartofuptickinwinddemand–agrowthHowever,deploymentofwindexperiencinghighdemand-sideenergy,andthemanufacturingandvolatility,hesitationtowardsscaling1.IRENA,WorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook:1.5°CPathway,2023.productioncapacityrequiredtoonthesupplierside,andrapid2.IEA,NetZeroRoadmap:Aglobalpathwaytokeepthe1.5°Cgoalinreach-2023Update,2023.3.GWEC,GlobalWindReport,2023.4GWEC.NETExecutiveSummaryOnlytheOpenDoorscenarioissufficientfornetzero;theIncreasedBarriersuntestednewtechnology1)OpenDoor,withgrowingregionalscenarioismostlikelytomaterialiseandfalls650GWshortdeployments,largeR&DspendforcollaborationonbothsupplyandOEMsthattheyhavenotbeendemand.3abletorecuperate,andalackofindustrystandardisationpushing2)IncreasedBarriers,whereOpenDoorIncr.Barriersupcosts.marketsincreasetradebarriersEcon.DownturnGlobalEscalationandturntheirattentiontolAfocusonresilienceandpoliticaldomesticinvestment.TWinstalledwind2pressurearoundjobcreationmakesregulatorspushfor3)EconomicDownturn,where1localisation.Theenergycrisisofinvestmentsdryupandattention2021madeenergyresilienceacorefocusestowardslow-costratherIB,EDandGEresultin<=2TW2030outcomepoliticaltheme,placingthefocusonthanlow-emissionstechnology.energysupply.Sincethen,the020202030resilienceagendahasexpandedto4)GlobalEscalation,where2010encompasssupplychainsandincreasingcross-borderconflictindustry.ThishaspromptedvaryingreducestradeandshiftsthefocusNote:Interpolated2024-2030forecasts,assuminghigherdemandcanhaveimpactoninstallationsfrom2025onwards.industrialstrategiesfromnewwindfromdecarbonisationtowardsSource:GWEC,IEANetZeroscenario(releasedSeptember2023),BCGanalysismarkets,countries/regionswithaensuringaccesstoenergy.fragmentedsupplychainfootprintthatisdesperatelyneededfromainnovationcurse.Theindustryandcountrieswithanat-scaleAnOpenDoorscenariowouldhaveclimateperspective.Meanwhile,hasreachedastagewheresupplychain.thehighestnet-positiveclimateandlocalcontentandindustrialever-largerturbinesarewindindustryimpact,withwindpoliciesarepreventingspecialisedforspecificmarketsThesefactorshaveconvergedtogrowthsufficientforreachinganetconsolidationinsomemarketslikebutlesssuitedtotheglobalmaketheoutlookforglobalwindzeropathway.However,wecurrentlyChina,whichwouldallowforamarket.Atthesametime,thecoresupplychainschallenging–butoneseeahigherlikelihoodforthemoreefficientsupplychain.industrychallengescreatedbythethatcanbegreatlyimproved.IncreasedBarriersscenariotoMaintainingthisovercapacityisrapidincreaseinturbinesizesarematerialise.Undercurrentpolicies,puttingtremendouspressureonbecomingincreasinglyevident,ThefutureoutlookforwindwearelikelytoinstalljustmorethantheP&Lofwindindustryplayers.includingashortenedproductsupplychainsisuncertainand2TWofglobalwindcapacitybydevelopmentlifecyclethatcanlikelytobecomemore2030,whichmeansaroughly650lTheindustryishitbyarapidleadtodefectsstemmingfromchallengingGWshortfallfroma1.5°Cpathway.4ThiscurrentgrowthtrajectoryisinLookingtothefuture,therearelinewiththeIncreasedBarriersdifferentelementsthatcanimpactscenario,andreflectsalow-demandtheoutlookfortheglobalwindsupplychain.Weforeseefour4.ComparingGWEC’sBAUoutlook(GlobalWindscenarios:Report2023)toIEA’sNetZeroby2050scenario(2023).GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD5ExecutiveSummarypictureinEuropeandotherkeyrepresentsapproximately64%ofindustry,6concentrationofcompetitivecost,industryandregionsthatprovidesinsufficientglobalvalueandanexpected58%componentmanufacturingisapolicymakersmustactivelysignalsforthesupplychaintoscale.shareofplannednear-termsignificantconcernduetoacollaborateonimmediateaction.Six(2023–2025)globalwindhistoricaltendencyinEurope–keyrecommendationsforactiontoItisalsolikelythatelementsoftheinstallations.5Concentrationisandtoanevenhigherextentinthesecuretheglobalwindenergyothertwoscenarios,EconomicstrongestforrareearthelementUS–tooutsourcegearbox,supplychainfora1.5°CarelistedDownturnandGlobalEscalation,willrefiningandthemanufacturingofconverterandgeneratorbelow:resonateinglobalmarketstosomegearboxes,converters,castingsmanufacturing.Forresilientwindextent.Thebodyofthisreportandgenerators,forwhichtherestscaling,weneedtoseeeffortstoRecommendation1:Addressdetailshoweachscenariowouldoftheworldisheavilydependentensurelocalsuppliesofthesebasicbarrierstowindindustryimpacttheglobalwindsupplychain.oncontinuedimports.Therearecomponents.Europemustatleastgrowthinland,gridsandclearsignalsthatChinaintendstodoubleitsexistingcapacitybypermittingtoincreasevolumeInthecurrentmacroenvironment,thekeepgrowingitsroleasthe2030,whiletheUSneedstoandpredictabilitywindindustrymustbereadytoleadingcomponentmanufacturerestablishlocalindustriesfromnavigatethesescenariosandpreparefortheglobalwindindustry,andscratchtomeetdomesticdemand.Partsofthesupplychainarenowforgrowth,whileatthesametimefurtherextenditsinvolvementtoloss-makingandunabletocommitguardingitselfagainsttheadverseprovidingfinishedwindturbineslNacelleassemblycapacitywilltofutureproductioncapacity,effectsofaneconomicdownturnandtointernationalmarkets.beinsufficientinallregionslargelyduetopolicyandescalationofglobaltradetensions.exceptChinaandIndia,withtheregulatorybarriersthatleadtolMiningforthemostimportantthinmarginscurrentlyheighteneduncertaintyforprojectThewindsupplychainmustrawmaterialssuchasiron,zincexperiencedintheindustryinvestments.Thesebarriersaddressspecificbottlenecksandcopperisheavilydeterringthenecessarycapacityincludeoverlycomplexpermittingcentralisedinahandfulofexpansion.Theunderlyingprocedures,gridbottlenecksandCurrentsupplychainsonlyhavecountries,whiletherefiningofchallengesthreateningtheimpracticalpricingsignalsatenoughcapacitytodeliveroncriticalrareearthmineralsforprofitabilityoffirst-linesuppliersauction.Inmanyplaces,policygrowthscenariosthatfallshortofnetwindturbinepermanentmagnetsmustbeaddressedtoensureandfinancingenvironmentsarezero.Toallowtheindustrytoachieveishandledalmostexclusivelybysufficientcapacity,especiallyfornotfitforpurposefora1.5°Cthenecessary2.75TWofinstalledChina.Thenaturalresourcesandoffshorewind.pathwaythatculminatesinwindcapacityby2030,supplychainsrefiningcapacityforthesegeneratingone-fifthoftheworld’smustscaleacrossallactivitiesandmaterialsareplentiful,buttheirIfwearetoensureasufficientlylargeelectricityby2030andone-thirdmarkets.Itisessentialtodirectlyheavycentralisationmakestradeandstabledemandforanetzeroofelectricityby2050.7addressthekeychallengeswithinrestrictionsamajorriskforthefuture,deliveredatahighlythewindsupplychain,ortheywillglobalindustry.Asakeyenergyandpoliticalposelikelybottlenecksbefore2030.lWhileconcentrationriskin5.Value-addbasedonestimatedshareofmining,refining,manufacturing,assemblyandserviceswithcalculationdonelThewindsupplychainisChinaisnotashighinthewindbasedonactivitylocation.Installationoutlookcovering2023-2025isfromGWEC’swindgrowthforecast(Q22023Outlook).currentlyhighlyglobalised,withindustryasitisinthesolarPV6.Chinahasmorethan80%shareofallkeysolarpanelmanufacturingstages,andmanufacturingforcomponentslikeastrongfocusinChina.Chinapolysiliconandwafersissettoriseto95%inthenextfewyears,accordingtotheIEA.See:IEA,SolarPVGlobalSupplyChains,2022.7.IRENA,WorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook:1.5°CPathway,2023.6GWEC.NETExecutiveSummaryThemeCriticalmaterialsKeycomponentsAssemblyOffshorewindenablersSubjectRareEarthsSteelPlateCopperConcreteCarbonGearboxesGeneratorsBladesCoPnovewreterrsCastingsTowersFoundationsCablesOnshoreOffshoreInstallationPortsWorkforceFibernacellesnacellesvesselsGloballevelcriticalityTimetoactionEurope2023---20252024202420242024202320252025202520242024202520232023NorthAmerica2023---20252023202320232023202320232023202320242023202320232023China-----------------KeyfindingsGeneralavailabilityofneededmaterialsattheglobalRiskofmanufacturingbottlenecksbefore2030formultiplecomponentsatregionallevel,OnshorechallengeOffshorewindneedstoscalelevel,withcoppermining/reﬁningandconcreteinparticulargearboxes,generators,bladesaswellasoffshorewindsizecompatibleexpectedonlyifbothportcapacityandwindproductionavailableforallmajorregionsmetalcastings,towersandfoundationstradeexportsfromturbineinstallationvesselsIndia/ChinaarewithsufﬁcientlylargecraneMajorcentralisationforreﬁningofrareearthStrongcentralisationforsomekeycomponents,especiallygearboxesandcastings.restrictedcapacitymaterials,withclosetonocapacityoutsideofChinaNorthAmericaisgenerallyfullydependentonimportedcomponentsandisalreadytoday.FirstalternatereﬁneriesexpectedtobereadytodayexperiencingundersupplyofespeciallycomponentsforoffshorewindincludingOffshoreassemblyUScriticallylacksvesselsandby2028offshoretowers,foundationsandsubseacablesrisksundersupplyportswhileannouncedasuncertainexpansionplansandordersinCarbonﬁberproductioncurrentlyexperiencingSupplychainswillgenerallybeneﬁtfrombuildingoutregionalmanufacturinghubstoindustryoutlookothermarketscanundercapacity;majorcapacityexpansionhasbeenensuremoreresilientaccesstoneededcomponentswhileensuringcontinuedtradeandmayleadtoaddressneedto2030;anyannouncedinparticularinChina,withEuropeandglobalinterlinkagestoenableﬂexibilityandaddressdemandvolatilityplantcancellationscancellationswillposerisksNorthAmericalikelybecomingreliantuponimportsRecommendationsAddressbasicbarrierstowindindustrygrowthinland,gridsRegionalisationwillbeneededtosupportgrowthandTradepolicyshouldbuildcompetitiveindustries,andpermittingtoincreasevolumeandpredictabilityresilience,whilemaintainingaglobalisedsupplychainnotpushhighercostsontoendusersThewindindustrymuststandardiseandindustrialiseThemarketmustprovideclearandbankableFundamentalreformofthepowermarketunderpinsdemandsignalsfurtherwindgrowthNoglobalbottleneckriskImmediateglobalbottleneckDeepdiveanalysisprovidedTimetoactiondenotestimewhennewcapacityconstructionmustbestartedtoavoidbottlenecksineachregionwithouttradeWorkforcewithmajorchallenges,addressedinGWEC&GWO:GlobalWindWorkforceOutlook2023-2027GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD7ExecutiveSummarypriority,thewindenergyindustryOEMscancapitaliseontheirR&Dsourcesforthematerialsandfromregionalcollaborationandmustworkwithgovernmentandcivilinvestmentswhileallowingforthecomponentsneededtodeploycross-borderlearning.societytourgentlyaddresspolicysupplychaintouseequipmentforadditionalwindcapacity.Butthisandregulatorybarriers,inordertomorethanafewyearsandachievemustbeaccompaniedbymeasuresGovernmentsshouldadoptahelpimproveitsoutlook.economiesofscale.tokeeptradeflowingwithinandbalancedapproachbetweenfosteringbetweenregions,supportingregionalsupplychainsecurityandRecommendation2:ThewindRecommendation3:individualnationsinenhancingtheiraccountingfortheglobalinterlinkagesindustrymuststandardiseandRegionalisationwillbeneededcapacitytodeliveratscale,ensuringofthewindenergysupplychain.industrialisetosupportgrowthandflexibleaccesstoneededmaterials,Regionswillneedtopursuesupplyresilience,whilemaintainingacomponentsandservices,anddiversificationstrategies,reshore/Thewindsectormustindustrialiseglobalisedsupplychainprovidingstrongerwinddemandonshoresomesegmentsandgrowandscale,withdesignsbecomingdriversacrossborders.Thiswillbetheirowncapacities.Butthisshouldglobalandmodular.Toachievethis,Withagrowingpushtowardsparticularlyimportantforthefuturenotmanifestinmeasuresthatoutrightturbineplatformgrowthwillneedtogrowthoftheoffshorewindsector,blockcurrenttradeflowsandinterruptslowdowntowards2030tothediversification,reshoringandwheremanufacturing,installationordelaydeployment.ParticularextentneededtoavoidserialandO&Mservicesallbenefitgreatlyattentionshouldbepaidtogearboxes,damagesinthefield,ensuringthatregionalisation,theindustrywillprofitfrombuildingoutregionalsupplyhubstoprovidealternativeExternalandinternaldevelopmentsimpactingthewindsupplychainExternalInternal4ExternalandinternalIncreasingmarketvolatilityIncreasingmarketvolatilityPolicysignalsholdbackCurseofrapidinnovationcapacityadjustmentsdevelopmentsimpactingRegulatorspushforlocalisationIndustrydemandhasinpastbeenvolatile,drivenbythewindsupplychainIndustryhesitanttoexpandphaseinandphaseoutofsupportschemesManycompaniesintheWestareunabletomakedownwardsVolatilityinducedbymacroeventssuchassupplychaincapacityadjustmentsgiventheanticipatedstep-upofwindbottlenecksthroughCOVIDandinflationandrawdemandtomeetclimatetargets,whilecost-cuttingexercisesandmaterialpricesdrivenbythewaronUkrainechronicunderinvestmenthasmadesupplychainscale-upDeveloperscancelingprojectsdespitealreadysecuredchallengingofftakecontractsInothermarketslikeChina,political-industrialinterestsareRegulatorspushforlocalisationpreventingconsolidationwhichcouldalleviateinefficienciesUkraineinvasionhasmaderesilienceofenergysupplyaThesesituationsfosterprofitabilitychallengesforsupplytopprioritychaincompaniesResilienceofstock(energyproducingequipment)alsomovedintofocus,includinginIRA,Net-ZeroIndustryCurseofrapidinnovationAct,CriticalMineralsActandChineseexportrestrictionsLocalcontentrequirementsleadtosub-scaleproductionRaceforlargerWTGshasleftinsufficienttimeforplantsthataredecoupledfromgloballearningratesthoroughtesting,resultinginserialdefectsinthefieldDevelopmentcostshasnotbeenrecuperatedduetoshortenedproductlifecyclesInnovationoncomponentandsystemlevelhasnotallowedforindustrialisationofexistingtechnologies8GWEC.NETgenerators,powerconverters,castingsworkforceskillsandinfrastructure,couldalsobeconsideredtofurtherandrareearthmaterialswhereglobalwhileprescriptiveregulationstimulateinnovationanddomesticresilienceiscurrentlylowandagainstcross-bordertradecouldvaluecreation.concentrationriskinChinaishigh.reduceindustrygrowthandincreasecosts.ThiswillultimatelyAsoneofthemostinnovative,Recommendation4:Themarketbepaidforbyhouseholds,scalableandcost-effectivemustprovideclearandcommercialandindustrialrenewableenergysources,thebankabledemandsignalstoconsumers,citiesandotherglobalwindindustryispreparedtoreachnetzeroconsumersofelectricity.continuemakinglargeandlong-terminvestmentsintechnology,MarketsmustdevelopcredibleRatherthanpursuingdefensivebuild-outtrajectoriesintheshapeofmechanismswhichcouldenhanceActionstakennowwillconcreteandtransparenttargets,astradebarriers,governmentsshouldhelptofosterahighlytheywillbekeytosupplychainfocusonincentivisingstrategicresilientandevenmoreinvestment.Thesemustbestable,segmentsofthedomesticindustry,cost-efficientsolutiontobankableandmuchstrongerthancreatingamoreattractivemarketdecarbonisetheworld.theyaretoday.Bystatingclearenvironmentbyensuringadequatetargetsandroadmapsoveralongpricingandreturns,makingsupplychainsandpeople.Throughahorizonstretchingbeyond2030,competitivefinanceavailableandcoordinatedglobaleffortfrompolicymakerswillbeabletogrowremovingbureaucraticbarriers.industryandpolicymakers,wefirmlywindpowerdemandasneededbelievethatthechallengesinthethroughcommunicatedtargetsforRecommendation6:Fundamentalglobalwindsupplychaincanbeelectrification,decarbonisation,reformofthepowermarketresolvedoverthecourseofthissectorcouplingandstorage,underpinsfurtherwindgrowthdecade.Actionstakennowwillhelpinvolvingthebroaderindustryintofosterahighlyresilientandevenbuildingrenewablesecosystems.Inordertoprovidethecertaintymorecost-efficientsolutiontoneededtoattractinvestment,powerdecarbonisetheworld.ThiswouldRecommendation5:Trademarketreformshouldbeprovideincrediblevaluefromapolicyshouldaimtobuildintroducedtobetteraddressthesocioeconomicand,notleast,acompetitiveindustries,notpushrequirementsofrenewableclimateperspective.highercostsontoend-usersgeneration.Long-termoperatingmarginsmustbeensuredthroughSupplychaincapacityutilisationawardsbasedonsolutionswithremainskeytocostreduction,andhighersystemvalue–suchasaisonlypossibleifresourcescanbebetterproductionprofile–rathersharedacrossregions,withthanstrongcompetitionforthecompetitivecostpositionsandlowestpriceperMWh.Thebroaderlimitedtradebarriers.MarketswillsocietalbenefitsofwindenergybenefitfrompublicinvestmentintoGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD9StrapCHAPTER1:GLOBALSTATUSANDOUTLOOKOFTHEWINDSUPPLYCHAIN10GWEC.NETGlobalFindingsGlobalfindingsonthewindsupplychainInresponsetoincreasinginflation,centralbankshaveembarkeduponMacrotrendsinwindarewillsurpassthe2TWmilestoneof1.Marketvolatilityisincreasingaseriesofinterestraterises,leadingchallengingtheglobalinstalledwindcapacityworldwidethecostofcapitaltoalsoincrease.supplychainundercurrentpolicies.1However,WindhashistoricallyexperiencedHighercostofcapitalleadstogrowthisstilllaggingfarbehindhighvolatility,triggeredbytheincreasedcostsforallinvestments.Numerousglobaltrendsarethelevelsrequiredfora1.5°CintroductionorexpiryofsupportTightenedmonetarypolicyimpactingthewindsupplychain.pathway.schemes.WhiledamagingtothecombinedwithhistoricallyhighSincetheCOVID-19pandemicinindustry,thistypeofvolatilitywascommoditypricesinthelasttwo2020,theworldhasshiftedtoaperiodInternationalenergyagenciesandpredictable.Today’svolatilityisyearshasimpactedlendingforofhighuncertaintyandrapidchange.netzeroroadmapsagreeontheincreasinglyduetonew,less-energysourcesworldwide.primaryroleofwindenergyontheanticipateddriverssuchasfailedOverall,thepotentialfordisruptiveroadtonetzero.IRENA’sWorldauctions,serialdefectstriggeredby2.Policysignalsarepreventingshocksin2024remains,includingEnergyTransitionsOutlookforeseestherapidgrowthinplatformsize,theindustryfromadjustingandimpactsoriginatingfromtheUS3,040GWofcumulativeonshoreandrawmaterialpriceincreases.scalingproductionelectioncycle,theongoingwarsinwindby2030and494GWofThesefactorsareleadingtowindUkraineandtheMiddleEastandoffshorewindby2030,orabout3.5projectdelaysorevencancellationsTheglobalwindsupplychainhaspossiblyafurtherslowingdownofTWoftotalwindinstalledby2030.2ofwindprojectsthathavesecuredhistoricallycarriedadegreeofChineseeconomicgrowth,TheIEA’sNetZeroby2050offtakecontracts.Thisisimpactingovercapacity,andthisisevensensiblealongsidecontinuedfoodandScenariocallsfor2.75TWofwindbuyersandsellersofwindpowergiventhetendencyformarketenergypricevolatility.installationsin2030,with320GWandcomponentsalike.upswingsanddownswings.However,installedin2030alone.3varyingpolicysignalsarepreventingAsgovernmentsputplansinplaceSinceCOVID-19,inflationaryimpactssupplychainactorsfrommakingfor2024toshoreupeconomicIneitherscenario,globalwindonsupplychains,shippingandnecessaryadjustmentsincapacitytosecuritywhileprogressingthegrowthmustrapidlyacceleratetologisticshavepushedupcapitalcostsmeetcurrentdemandandanticipatedenergytransition,leaderswillneedtomeet2030targetsfora1.5°C(CAPEX)ofwindandotherformsofdemandmoreefficiently.embraceamoreadaptivemindsetpathway.Thiswouldmeanrampingelectricitygeneration.Labourandembedprocessesthatmonitorupannualglobalwindinstallationsexpenseshavealsoincreased,whileInmanyareasoftheworld,andrespondtomajorchangesinthefromthecurrent110GWbyroughlythepricesofkeycommoditieslikecompaniesareunabletomakemacroenvironment.Buildingthose3-3.5timesbytheendofthedecade.ironandsteelremainwellabovedecisivedownwardscapacitymusclesbeforetheyareneededwillAgainstthisbackdrop,anumberofpre-pandemiclevels.Developersthatadjustmentsgiventheanticipatedbeadifferentiatingfactorinthismacrotrendsarechallengingthesecuredofftakecontractsbetweenstep-upofwinddemandgrowthindecade,determininghowwellwindindustry’scapacitytoforward-twoandfouryearsagoarethisdecadeandbeyond–growthcountriescannavigateuncertaintyplanandinvestinproductionandexperiencingadramaticshiftintotalwhichisdesperatelyneededfromaandchange.manufacturingcapacitytomeetprojectcosts,underminingfuturethesegrowthtargets.revenuecertaintyandtheirabilityto1.GWEC,GlobalWindReport,2023By2030,GWECforecaststhatwereachfinalinvestmentdecisions.2.IRENA,WorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook:1.5°CPathway,2023.3.IEA,NetZeroRoadmap:Aglobalpathwaytokeepthe1.5°Cgoalinreach-2023Update,2023.GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD11GlobalFindingsclimateperspective.Intermsofregionalproductionhubs,leadingto4.AfocusonresilienceandjobCountriesarerespondingtothisupwardsadjustments,astrainontheexitorconsolidationoflocalcreationmakesregulatorspushtrendindifferentways.profitabilityispronouncedamongplayersthathadbeenproducinglessforlocalisationWesterncompanies,wherecost-advancedWTGs.lNewmarketsoftensetlocalcuttingexercisesandchronicTheglobalenergycrisisandcontentrequirementstolocaliseunderinvestmenthasmadesupplyTherewasanexpectationintheEurope’srelianceonRussiangasatsomemanufacturing.Thiscomeschainscale-uptomeetanetzeroindustrythatthistrendwouldpersisttheadventoftheUkraineinvasionattheexpenseofhigherCAPEXpipelineequallychallenging.andleadtogloballystandardisedimmediatelymadeenergyresilienceandultimatelyhigherpowerMaintainingovercapacityisputtingwindturbinesthatcouldbeproducedacorethemeforpoliticsandtheprices.WehaveobservedthisintremendouspressureontheP&Lofatscaleinvariouslocations.However,energyindustry,whileenergypricesthenascentoffshorewindsectorswindindustryplayers,especiallywithcontinuoustechnologicalhadbeenrisingduetodroughtandintheChineseTaiwanareaandthosethatarepurelywindfocusedprogress,theindustryhasreachedacoalpricevolatilityinAsia.TheinitialtheUS.Thesustainabilityofsuchaandhavearegionalscope.LessnewstagewithturbinessolargeandfocusinEuropewasonresilienceofmodeldependsonstablelocalaffectedareplayerswithabroaderspecialisedforaspecificmarketthatenergysupply(theflow),bothbydemandforwindturbines(asclientbase,suchasbearingtheyhavebecomelesssuitedforthediversifyingsourcesoffossilfuelseeninBrazil)oronlocalplayersmanufacturers,foundriesforcastglobalmarket.generation(e.g.buildingnewLNGreachingacriticalscaleasiron,orcablesuppliers.terminalsinrecordtime,orsupportisbeingphasedout(e.g.Wearenowseeingmarket-specifictemporarilyswitchingcoalbackon)bladeproductioninTurkey).InChina,thereisadequateWTGdesignstomatchphysicalwhileassemblingmedium-termEqually,thereareexamplesoftheinvestmentforscalinguptomeetthelimitationssuchaspayloadonplanstoacceleraterenewablelocalinstallationvolumeprotectedhugegrowthprojectionsofthehighways(USA),environmentalenergydeployment.Chinathroughlocalcontentdeclining.domesticmarket.However,political-requirements(EU),climaterespondedtotheenergycrisisbyLocalplayersthathadnotreachedindustrialinterestsandcompetingconditions(MiddleEast),co-locatedacceleratingitsrenewablesbuildoutagloballycompetitivelevelprioritiesarepreventingindustryplantplanning(China)orgridandspeedingupcoalplantbecamedistressed,suchastheconsolidation,whichwouldalleviatelimitations(Australia).Atthesameapprovals.gearboxmanufacturingindustrythecostpressuresandinefficienciestime,therapidincreaseinturbineinSpain,ormanufacturingininthesupplychainfosteredbyasizeshasresultedinseveralcoreSincethen,thediscussionaroundBrazilforWTGssmallerthancrowdedmarket.ThissituationindustrychallengesbecomingresilienceinEuropeandtheUShas2MW.Localcontentrequirementssimilarlyimposesasqueezeonincreasinglyevident,includingaexpandedtoencompasssupplydonotnecessarilyimproveprofitabilityofwindindustryshortenedproductdevelopmentchainsintheenergysector(theresilienceofthestockasthecompaniesinChina.lifecyclethatcanleadtodefectsindustry).Todaymanydecisionsaremarketwilllikelycontinuetostemmingfromuntestednewinfluencedbythedesiretoalsobedependontheimportofcritical3.Howtherapidinnovationcursetechnologydeployments,largeR&Dresilientwithregardstoequipmentcomponents.TheInflationhashittheindustryspendforOEMsthattheyhavenotmanufacturing,translatingintoReductionAct(IRA)intheUS,forbeenabletorecuperate,andalackprioritisingnotonlytheabilitytoexample,omitscertainInthepast,Europedevelopedtheofindustrystandardisationpushingproducetheenergybutalsothecomponentsfromitsscope,leadingandlargestWTGtechnology,upcosts.generationtechnologyitselfintheleavinglocalassemblyplantswhichwasthenreplicatedatmultiplemarketorregion(localforlocal).12GWEC.NETGlobalFindingsSupplychainhasmajortradeimbalancewithgreaterexportsfromAsiaTradeBalance:Degreeofwindindustryvaluecreationversusconsumption(installation)+50%Netexporter;more+25%valuecreatedthanconsumedinregion0%25%-Netimporter;lessvalue50%-createdthanconsumedinregionRepresentslocalmining,reﬁning,manufacturing,assemblyandservicescomparedtolocalconsumption.CalculationatregionallevelforNorthAmerica,SouthAmerica,Europe,India,ChinaandRestofWorld.Valuebasedonlocationofactivity.Source:GWEC,IEA,BCGanalysis.reliantuponimports.LocaltosupportlocalindustrialtheirproductioncapacitybyResiliencestrategiesgenerallyapplycontentmaywellresultingreaterdevelopmentandsupplychainservingboththedomesticandanagrowingfocusonlocalsupplysupplyanddemandimbalancesinvestment,asisincreasinglyincreasinglydiversifiedexportchains.Forcountrieswithoutexisting–asintheEuropeanoffshoreseenintheEuropeanandcustomerbase.Thisapproachat-scalesupplychainsthiswillleadnacelleassemblysector.Japaneseoffshorewindallowsforexportorderstobetohigherlocalwindtechnologyindustries.calculatedatamarginalpriceandcostsduetosub-scaleproductionlCountriesorregionswithacreatesresiliencefordomesticlevelsandadecouplingoflocalwindfragmentedfootprintarelCountrieswithanat-scalesupplyproduction,butcomesatcostsforindustryfromglobalindustryapplyingnon-pricecriteriachaintrytoleveragetheircostotherplayersinthemarketandcanlearnings.Forcountrieswithan(NPC)intheirauctionsinorderadvantagetomakethebestuseofpromptprotectivetrademeasures.at-scalesupplychaintherewillbeaGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD13GlobalFindingsTotalvalueTradeNewgenerationbalanceinstallationsValueaddfromsupplyvariesbystep;EUandUSpunchingbelowtheirweightValuegenerationalongthewindsupplychain(%inUSD2023)(USD)(GW)7%-6%100%3%-28%6%8%14%-35%5%5%9%-19%18%3%+45%64%+12%58%MiningRefiningManufacturingAssemblyT&ITotal2023-2025eROWS.AmericaN.AmericaEuropeIndiaChinaNote:Analysisonlocationofvalue-add,notnationalityofproducer.Mining,reﬁningandproductionsplitforwinduseestimatedbasedonnationalcapacity,sourcingpolicyandtradepatterns,anddonotincludemajorChineseownershipinmajorminingmarketssuchasIndonesiaandChile.Manufacturingincludessub-suppliersfortowersandblades.AssemblyincludesOEMR&D.Source:GWEC,IEA,BCGanalysis.highriskofovercapacity,withanmanufacturingcapacityofcontentrequirements.ThefullimpactbenefitedfromgrowingannualnewadverseimpactonbothcostsandcomponentssuchasgearboxesandoftheIRAisstilltobeseen,butthereinstallations,allowingscaleandindustrymarginoutlook.blades.Toreducerelianceuponaresignsofacomingindustryexperiencetoadvancewhiledrivingimportsandrevivedomesticrevitalisation,withatleast11downcosts.ThemanufacturingTheIRAcurrentlyrepresentsastrongmanufacturingcapacitygrowth,theannouncementsmaderecentlyfootprintisconcentratedinafewexampleoftheuseoftargetedIRAprovidesproduction-basedtaxaroundwindmanufacturingplantbuildinghubscapableofsupplyingincentivesandindustrialisationpolicycreditsfordomesticwindcomponentcapacityexpansion.4othermarkets.drivingsupplychainregionalisationmanufacturingsuchastowersandinresponse.RisingUS-Chinatradenacelles,aswellasfornacelleChinahasbuiltastrongsupplyThedepthofvaluecreationatmosttensionsandashiftofmanufacturingassembly.Italsoprovidesademandchain,butisalsothemarketwithOEMshasdecreasedovertime,withcapacityintoChinaoverthelastincentivethrougha10%bonusforlargestannualinstallationsdecadehaveledtofallingUSwindprojectsmeetingdomestic4.USDepartmentofEnergy:Land-BasedWindMarketThewindsupplychaininChinahasReport,2023Edition.14GWEC.NETGlobalFindingsanincreasingfocusoncoreglobalinstallations,itiscurrently–orsecuredaccesstominesbyacombinationofactivecompetenciessuchasdesign,procuringa64%shareoftotalelsewhere–forthevastmajorityretentionpoliciesandlogistics.engineeringandassembly.Alargeindustryvalue.5Indiaalsohasaofthematerialsitneeds.partofthewindindustryvalue-addhighershareindomesticvalue-addExcavationsareeitherwithinlChina’sshareoftheglobalmarket(58%)comesfromOEMs’supply(5%)comparedwithitsshareinChinaorsupportedbyChineseoffinishedWTGsremainslimitedchains(Tier1andTier2players)globalinstallations(3%).Giventheinvestmentinregionssuchasbutislikelytogrow.Outofthe89.9andtheupstreamindustry.AroundstatedambitionsofIndianSouthAmerica,Asia-PacificorGWofnewglobalwind10-15yearsago,thesupplychainconglomeratessuchasAdani,thisAfrica,wherereservesareinstallationsin2022,56.6GWwaswastypicallyinthedirectvicinityofsurplusislikelytoincrease.Thisconcentrated.producedandassembledintheOEM,butovertimecosthasleavesotherregionswithanunder-China,accordingtoGWECMarketbecomemoreimportantthanproportionalvalue-addinEuropelChinahasbuiltaleadingroleinIntelligence.OfthisChineseproximity.Consequently,many(-4%)andNorthAmerica(-3%),materialrefining,coveringtheproduction,88%wasmadebysupplychainplayershavemovedwhiletherestoftheworldhasamajorityofsteelandaluminiumasChineseOEMsforthedomesticsomeoralloftheirproductiontoslightsurplus(lessthan1%)drivenwellastherareearthmaterialsofChinesemarket,lessthan0.2%LCCs(LowCostCountries).mainlybyrawmaterialmining.crucialimportancetothewindwasmadebyWesternOEMsinindustry.ChinadominatestheChinafortheChinesemarket,OEMs’assemblyandsupplychainOverthelastdecade,Chinahasbuiltrefiningofneodymium(100%closeto9%wasexportedbytodayaremainlylocatedinChinaupascale-drivenandbackwards-globalmarketshare)andWesternOEMsfromChinafortheandincreasinglyIndia.Therelativeintegratedindustrythroughsteadydysprosium(88%),bothofwhichglobalmarketandlessthan3%domesticvalue-addintheUShasmarketexpansion.ChinahasbeenarecriticaltothemanufactureofwasexportedbyChineseOEMsdeclinedsince2012duetoahighthestrongestexampleofagrowingpermanentmagnetsforwindandfortheglobalmarket.Whilethecostbaseandamassivedropinnewproductionwindhub.ThenewdifficulttorefineduetoabsolutenumberofChineseinstallationsafterexpiryoftheinstallationsinChinaduetocomeenvironmentalconcerns.turbinesexportedonanannualProductionTaxCredit.However,onlineby2025(comprisingaroundbasishasgrownfrom545MWingrowthisexpectedtopickupinthe58%ofglobalnewinstallations)arelChinahasdevelopedanexport2016to1,590MWin2022,theUSinthisdecade,buoyedbyalmostexclusivelysuppliedbyindustryforWTGcomponents.ItrelativeshareofChinese-incentivesintheIRA.Europehasdomesticplayers;ontopofthat,dominatesthemanufacturingofproducedturbinesintheglobalbeenabletomaintainconsiderablemanysupplychainplayersservinggearboxes(80%),windpowermarketremainslow.However,domesticmanufacturingcapacityglobalOEMsmaintainproductionconverters(82%),windpowertakingintoaccountthecurrentthroughregulatoryeffortbutislinesinChina.generators(73%)andcastingsscaleofChineseturbineassembly,heavilyreliantuponimportedcapableofsupplyingwind(82%).aswellascapabilitiesincostmaterials,andhamperedbyslowerTodayChinaistheonlymarketwithThepictureismoreevenlyspreadcontrolandprojectexpectation,marketexpansion.analmostfullybackwardintegratedoutacrossmarketsfortowerweexpectthisglobalmarketwindsupplychainservingthemanufacturingandblades,drivensharetogrowinthisdecade.WhileChinaremainstheworld’sdomesticandexportmarkets.mainwindinstallerwith5.Valueaddbasedonestimatedshareofmining,refining,manufacturing,assemblyandserviceswithcalculationdoneapproximately58%ofexpectedlChinahasbuiltupitsownminingbasedonactivitylocation.Analysisappliedtoregions(Europe,NorthAmerica,SouthAmerica,China,IndiaandRestofWorld).Installationoutlookcovering2023-2025GWECwindforecast(Q22023Outlook).GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD15GlobalFindingsChinaismovingfromlocal-for-theglobalmarket,althoughmainlydifferentiation.Thisgenerationthatneedstosellonthelocaltoregional-for-globalascomponentsub-suppliers.Now,commoditisationtrendfirstmerchantmarketorwantstoweareincreasinglyseeingChineseimpactedcomponentsupplierssecurecommercialandindustrialAlthoughChinaisadominantplayerOEMssupplyingcompleteWTGstoandisnowincreasinglyimpacting(C&I)powerpurchaseagreementsacrosstheglobalwindsupplychain,overseasmarkets.OEMs.(PPAs).Withnomore‘goldentail’thecountry’sinitialfocuswastoofpost-CfDgeneration,theremayensureitcoulddeliveronitshighThisgrowingexportfocusislGrowingexportsalignswithbeareassessmentofpricingforwindinstallationambitions.InthesupportedbyfourindependentChina’sBeltandRoaddevelopmentWTGs,aslongertechnicallifetimespast,ChinesewindturbineOEMsdevelopments:andlendinginitiative.Since2013,itcouldbelessvaluableunderthismainlyfocusedoncompetingwithitisreportedtohavesupportedreform.However,theintroductioneachotherfordomesticprojects.lChinahasbuiltthemostmodernmorethan68countries,mostlyinparallelofnon-pricecriteriainmanufacturingbaseandmanyofdeveloping,withinfrastructuresuchauctionsinEuropeandotherpartsThishaschangedovertime.Inbroaditsmanufacturingandassemblyasroads,portsandgridswiththeoftheworldwillintroducenewterms,thechangetookplaceinthreesiteshavefavourableaccesstostatedgoalofachievingstrongervaluefactorstoWTGs,suchasphases.Inthefirstphase,globalinfrastructuresuchasroadsandconnectivityandtrade.supplychaintraceabilityandESGcomponentsuppliersbuiltports.assurance,whichmayalsoimpactmanufacturingsitesinChinatoservelThecomingEUenergymarketcompetitivenessofChineseWTGs.bothChineseOEMsandtheirlDevelopers’buyingdecisionsarereformisintroducingframeworkstraditionalcustomerbase.Then,toalargeextentprice-driven,thatmayimpactcompetitivenessofChinaisalsoexpandingitssupplyChinesesuppliersbegantoleavingverylittleroomforChineseturbinesinEurope.Underchain,largelytoservetheincreasinglyqualifyassupplierstothereform,governmentswillanticipatedleapindomesticwindsupportprojectsthroughContractsenergygrowth.OurstudyhasfoundforDifference(CfDs),withallthattheChinesewindindustryispowerproducedunderthemsoldplanningtoadd17onshorenacelleintheday-aheadmarkets.assemblyplantsand47offshoreEuropeanwindprojectsenteringnacelleassemblyplantsinChina,operationnowwillexitthesubsidycomparedwithatotalof2onshoreschemeafterapproximately15and8offshorefortherestoftheyears,whenEuropeistargetingworldcombined.Ontheinstallationrenewablestoachieveashareofside,Chineseinstallationprovidersmorethan60%oftheenergymix.areplanningtoconstruct20newThishighshareofvariablewindinstallationvesselscompatiblerenewableenergy(VRE)inthewiththelargestnewturbines,meritordermarketswillleadtocomparedtoatotalof18fortheresthighervolatilityandverylowpriceoftheworld.6capturerates.Thesewillhaveanegativeimpactonallrenewable6.GWEC:GlobalOffshoreWindReport,202316GWEC.NETGlobalFindingsLookingaheadto2030Dependingonfuturemacroterritorial,cyberorproxywargeopoliticalandeconomictrendsconflicts,resultinginpowers1.Thewindsupplychainlooksandassembly(largercastings,andpolicydecisions,theglobalpushingtorestructureinfluence,differentdependingonglobalfoundationsandblades),aswellassupplychainenvironmentforwindfragmentingglobalsupplydevelopmentsforinstallation(cranesandvessels),inenergywillmovetowardsoneoffourchains.ordertoaccommodatetheexpectedmacroscenarios.EachscenariowillInordertoassesstheprospectsforgrowthinturbineplatformsizesbothhavedifferentimplicationsfortheWhileanOpenDoorscenariotheglobalwindsupplychain,weonshoreandoffshore.windindustry,impactingitsabilitytowouldhavethehighestnet-positiveanalyseditscapacityinthecontextofdeliverontheenergytransitionandclimateandwindindustryimpact,netzeroandGWEC’scurrentTheIEA’sNetZeroby2050scenariothecostsofdoingso.wecurrentlyseeahigherprojectionsunderBAUconditions.WewouldrequirebothlargerequipmentlikelihoodfortheIncreasedalsolookedatthemacrotrendsthatandgreaterinvestmentintolOpenDoor,wheremajorpowersBarriersscenariotomaterialise.Anwouldimpactandsupporttheproductioncapacitytoclosethe650seethebenefitsofglobalIncreasedBarriersscenariowoulddifferentscenarios.Thisiscritical,GWgap.TheprospectofhighercooperationbasedonestablisheddeliverroughlythelevelofsincetheabilityfortheglobalwindgrowthwouldprovidethecriticalnormsfortradeandbuildregionalinstallationsforecastbyGWECsupplychaintodeliverlow-costdemandvolumetobuildmoresupplychainsthatarecompetitiveundercurrentpoliciesandBAUcapacityatthescaleneededforregionalsupplychaincentresandandresilient.conditions.Itisalsolikelythataddressingclimatechangewillintheimproveindustryresilience.elementsoftheothertwoscenarios,endlargelybedrivenbymacrolIncreasedBarriers,whereEconomicDownturnandGlobaltrendsandthepoliciesintroducedinItisimportanttonotethatindustrialdomesticinvestmentfocus,tradeEscalation,willresonateinglobalresponse.policiesandtheresultingfuturewars,conflictsandalliancesleadmarketstosomeextent.supplychaindynamicsareeconomiestoimplementunilateralGWEC’sBAUgrowthforecastuncertain.Largemarketssuchasthepoliciesandtradebarriers,Thewindindustrymustbereadytoindicateswindcapacityin2030tofallEUandtheUSaretryingtoreducingcross-bordersupplynavigatethesescenariosandaround650GWshortofwhatisrebalancevaluegenerationintheirchainflows.prepareforgrowth,whileattheneededforwindtomakeitsfullmarketstomatchthedeploymentofsametimeguardingitselfagainstthecontributiontoanetzerofuture.InthewindpowerthroughacombinationlEconomicDownturn,wheretheadverseeffectsofaneconomicBAUscenario,theannualinstalledofsupportprogrammeswithaworldishitbythesevereknock-ondownturnandglobalescalation.TocapacityinMWisalmostentirelydomesticfocusandhigherimporteffectsofaneconomicdownturnbetterunderstandthis,wehavesuppliedbygrowingturbinesizesbarriers,aswellaspotentialpolicywithhyper-inflation,defaultsandexplainedindetailwhatitmeansforunderexistingproductioncapacity.coordinationviatheEU-USTradeinvestmentdry-up.Aglobalthewindpowersupplychain.Therefore,nofurtherWTGproductionandTechnologyCouncil.AttherecessionandChinesegrowthcapacitywouldberequiredtosametime,Chinahasbeenslowingdownleadtoasupply1.1.OpenDoorwilldeliverlarger,achieveforecastBAUgrowth.expandingitslistofrestrictedchaincrisisandconsolidation.resilientsupplychainsandhigherrenewables-criticalmaterialsfordemandforwindpowerWewouldstillexpectinvestmentsintoexport.lGlobalEscalation,wheregloballargerequipmentformanufacturingmarketsareimpactedbyInanOpenDoorscenario,growingclimatechangeconcernsandwindGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD17LookingAheadto2030FourpotentialfuturescenariosimpactingsupplychainprioritiesOpenDoorIncreasedBarriersEconomicDownturnGlobalEscalationPushforcollaborationfacilitatesMoreregionalcrisesleadgov.toEconomiccrisesshiftfocusawayInternationaleconomicandmoreglobalapproachtoensurefocusonshorttermaidstargetingfromdecarbonisationandmakesconﬂictcrisesleadtorestructuredresilientsupplychainssandstrong,investmentintowindchallengingareasofinﬂuence;netzeroeffortsconsumersandindustrystabledemandAffordabilityprioritisedoverlargelyceaseContinuedprogresstowardsnetsustainability,minimisesinvestmentsSocialandpowermarketzeroindevelopedmarketswithinmitigation;inabilitytopaycostofAvailabilityishighestpriorityintransformationdeliveringagainstfocusonlocalproductionandenergy.Theworldreduceseffortstoinvestment;emergingmarketsseeadaptation1.5°targetwithlargeglobaltackleclimatechange;richcoveragelittleprogresseconomiesfocusonadaptationPolicyFreetradefocus,buildingmultipleFocusonprotectingdomesticLowindustrialactivityleadstoselectHighdomesticresiliencefocus;onlyprice-competitiveregionswithplayersandlimitingimports;tradeplayersupport,insolvenciesandlargereconomiesperformwellbackwardintegrationconﬂictsleadtolessdecarb.focuslikelyconsolidation/mergerswhileconﬂictlimitstradeETfocusRenewabledemandgrowthduetoMorefocusonlocalquick-winFocusonpoweraccessandpriceAvailabilityriskfromunreliableemissiontaxesandfossiltechphasesolutionsandenergyﬂowresilienceratherthandecarbonisation;lesstrade.ChinesemineralrestrictionsinvestmentintoCAPEX-heavytechandpriceuncertaintyraisecostsout;sharedstandardsfortraderatherthandecarbonisationET=EnergyTransitionindustrycollaborationmakemajorutilisationinrisingregionalhubsinstallationgrowthincrease1.2.IncreasedBarrierswillleadworldpowersseethevalueinglobalwilldelivermarginsthatare3-4commensuratewiththelevelstomoredomesticsupplyandcooperationtoensurearapid,percentagepointshigher,aswellasneededfortheworldtoreachitsdemandsecureandlow-costenergyimprovedresilience.netzerotargets.Thiswillbedriventransition.byalargeincreaseinthenumberInanIncreasedBarriersscenario,Asaresult,internationalsupplyofturbines,allowingforgrowththetendencyforcountriestoThiswillleadglobalsupplychainschainscombinedwithcross-borderevenifbetteralignedplatformsintroducelocalcontentrequirementstodeepen,focusedonlow-costdemandstimulationwillensureleadtoamoremoderategrowthindeepens,eveninearly-stagelocations,suchasChinaandIndia,bothmoreresilientsupplychainsturbinesize,reaching9.0MWonmarkets,theUSandEUintroducethatcansupplyfast-growingandastronger,lessvolatileaveragein2030,upfrom5.2MWinbarrierstoimports(especiallyfromdemand,whileefficientcapacitydemandoutlook.Weforeseean2023.77.TurbinescalingfollowingGWECWindTurbineDriveTrainOutlook2023-203018GWEC.NETLookingAheadto2030GlobaldevelopmentswillimpactthewindenergysupplychainOpenDoorIncreasedBarriersEconomicDownturnGlobalEscalationSocialandpowermarketContinuedprogresstowardsnetzeroAffordabilityprioritisedoverAvailabilityishighestpriorityintransformationdeliveringagainstindevelopedmarketswithfocusonsustainability,minimisesinvestmentsenergy.Theworldreduceseffortstoinmitigation;inabilitytopaycost1.5°targetwithlargegloballocalproductionandinvestment;tackleclimatechange;richcoverageemergingmarketsseelittleprogressofadaptationeconomiesfocusonadaptationSuppilerFragmentationConsolidationFragmentationConsolidationFragmentationConsolidationFragmentationConsolidationlandscapeDeeperregionalandglobalcollab.,LocalcontentleadstolocalisationLowcost,integratedconglomeratesCountryblocsbuildownsupplierwithopentradepolicy;long-runofcriticalparts,industrydominate;eventualconsolidationasbaseforallsupplychainleadingtoconsolidationbygovernmentscannotaffordsupportfragmentationandlowlearningratestrongestplayersfragmentationandlowresilienceMarketRecessionHighgrowthRecessionHighgrowthRecessionHighgrowthRecessionHighgrowthsizeSupply/demanddriversopennewLocalmarketgreengrowthfocus;LittleCAPEXavailableforRegionsinvestinrenewablesformarketsandgrowestablishedoneswindcompetitivewithallmitigation;morefocusonusinglessresiliencewhenbestoption,ifnotinCAPEX-heavyfossilinfrastructuretechwithbestshorttermbusinesscaserenewablesimpactedbylocalcontentLowHighLowHighLowHighLowHighSuppilerSourcingfromcost-efﬁcienthubsTradebarrierslowercompetitiveGlobalcompetitionforlowLackofscaleandmainlylocalmarginswithlowcostsandhighcapacitypressurebutlowcapacityutilisationvolumemeanslowmargins;oversourcingduetowartimepoliciestime,industryconsolidatesintoutilisationaggravatedbylocaldemandleadtomoderatemarginsvolatilitystrongplayersSC=SupplyChainVC=ValueChainChina),andChinapotentiallychainregionalisationinresponsetoThisscenariowillseepricesscalinginturbinesize(reaching9.2expandsitslistofexport-restrictedsubsidyconditionsandindustrialincreaseconsiderablyasaresultofMWaveragesizein2030)ratherthanenergytransitionminerals.Asapolicypackages(e.g.theInflationover-replicationofsupplychainnumberofinstalledturbines.result,decarbonisationeffortsareReductionActintheUS),aswellascapacityatscalesthatwouldoperatere-focusedtowardsdomesticwindgrowthdrivenbylocalatovercapacity,giveninsufficient1.3.EconomicDownturnwilloutcomesindevelopedmarkets,demand,withprotectedmargins1-2demandtocovertheexpandedlowerdemandandleadtowhileemergingmarketsseelittlepercentagepointslowerthaninthesupplychain.Weforeseewindindustryconsolidationprogressduetocost/supplybarriers.past.Deploymentwouldbepolicy-growthfalling20-25%shortofthebasedandtheindustrywouldneedsfornetzero,followingGWEC’sInanEconomicDownturnscenario,Thiswillleadtogreatersupplyexperiencevolatilerevenuegrowth.BAUoutlookandbeingdrivenbyhighinflationandinterestratescontinuetomakeinvestmentsGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD19Globaldevelopmentswillimpactwindmarketsize,sustainablereturnsandcostcurvesMarketSize(growth)SupplierMarginsCostofwindpowerGW(solid)orunits(dotted)of%IRR,indexed2023LCOEneteffect,indexed2023newinstallations,indexed2023300%120%200%-49%110%+33%100%100%100%-45%-10p.p.90%0%20262028203020242026202880%20242026202820302024OpenDoor2030Incr.BarriersEcon.DownturnGlobalEscalationchallenging,whilesomemarketsseethesurvivors.Thiswoulddrivewind1.4.GlobalEscalationwillhaltgeopoliticaltensions.Withlesstrade,hyperinflationandagrowthinloansectormarginsdownby3-4globaltradeaswellaswindsupplychainswillbefocusingondefaults.Aglobalrecessionspreadspercentagepoints,untildemandgrowthlocal,morevolatiledemand,andChinesegrowthmaysignificantlyconsolidationraisesthemagaintoadepressingmarginsbyupto5-6decline.Energypolicyshiftsquicklynet1-2percentagepointsreduction.InaGlobalEscalationscenario,percentagepointsduetounevenfromdecarbonisationandenergygrowingterritorial,cyberorproxycapacityutilisation.securitytowardsalow-costfocus.AfalteringfocusondecarbonisationwarconflictsinmultipleregionsleadMoreinvestmentismadeintoandreducedaccesstoinvestmentstoapolarisationofmarkets,withInthisscenario,demandwillfocusonOPEX-drivengenerationtechnologywillleadtolowerdemand.Weattentionshiftedfromsolutionstoimproveresiliencewhilewherecostscanbedelayed.foreseewindgrowthtobe25–30%decarbonisationtosecuringlocalattentionwillbelargelyredirectedbelowtheneedsfornetzero,driveninterestsastradefaltersandsomeawayfromdecarbonisation.WeAsaresult,regionalsupplychainsbyamajorslowdowninturbinesizemarketslooktoexpandbordersofforeseewindgrowthfalling30–35%(includingChina)willstrugglewithscaling(reachinganaveragesizeofinfluence.belowtheneedsfornetzero,drivenlowdemand,leadingtoindustry8.4MWin2030)andastagnatingbyaslowdowninaverageturbineconsolidationthat,overtime,benefitsnumberofinstalledturbinesperyear.Weseeglobalsupplychainslargelysizescaling(reachinganaverageofcollapsingduetolowerdemandand20GWEC.NET8.8MWin2030)andadeclineinthecostlevelsandconnectedthroughwindincludeiron,copperandrareMarketssuchastheEUandthenumberofturbinesinstalledperopen,mutuallybeneficialtrade.earthminerals.AlloftheseareUSwillneedevenhighergrowthyear.Thiswouldavoidheavyreliancesufficientlyabundanttodaytomeettomeetlocaldemand.Itiscriticaluponanymarket,allowingthethefuturedemandofawindtoretainaglobalflowof2.Thewindsupplychaincancreationofefficientregionalhubsindustrythatonlyrepresentsacomponents,investmentsandprofitfrombroadeningtosupportingwindindustrygrowthfractionoftheirenduses.However,know-how,sincenotonlycurrentregionalhubs,whilemaintainingandallowingmoreregionstothereisaconcernthattheheavyproductionbutalsoscalingglobalinterlinkagesderivevaluefromit.Asourstudycentralisationofminingactivitywillexpertiseisheavilyconcentratedshows,regionalisationwillbeleadtolowresilience.ThesameinChina.Thewindindustryisfacingparticularlyimportantfortheappliestorefining,wherecapacityconsiderableuncertaintybutisoffshorewindsector,whichisisabundantbutheavilycentralisedlNacelleassemblycapacityisunderpressuretoincreaseitslocalaffectedbyannualdemandinmarketssuchasChina,inunderpressureinallmarketsfocusinboththeIncreasedBarriersfluctuationandhasahigherparticularforrareearthmaterials,exceptChinaandIndia.ThisandGlobalEscalationscenarios.potentialforsharingportandwhereenvironmentalconcernsactivityisparticularlyreliantuponWithtoday’shighlyglobalsupplyvesselinfrastructureforinstallationandnecessaryscaleposeaattractivefinancialoutlooksforchain,movingtowardsmoreandO&M.roadblockforothermarkets.OEMsifcriticalinvestmentsaretoregionalsupplychainswillproducebemadeintofutureassemblytwopossibleoutcomes,withthe3.ThesupplychainisatriskoflComponentmanufacturingplants.Iftheseadditionalsecondamuchmoredesirablebottleneckscapacityisatriskofundersupplyinvestmentsarenotmade,prospectforthewindindustryandinthecomingyears.Challengesbottleneckswillformby2026,societyatlarge.ThisreporthasunveiledthepotentialareparticularlyhighinNorthespeciallyintheUSmarketforforlargeglobalsupplychainstoAmericaandEuropewhereonshoreandoffshorewindandinlAhighdegreeoflocalisationsupport2030netzerotargets,butmanufacturingcapacitiesforironEuropeforoffshorewind.combinedwithtradebarriersonlyontheconditionthatmarketscastings,gearboxes,convertersResolvingnacelleassemblywouldresultinsub-optimalscale,areabletoefficientlyshareexcessandgeneratorsarelowandreliantsupplychainchallengeswilllimitedflexibilityformeetingproductioncapacity.uponimports.BothregionswillrequireaddressingthepolicyanddemandfluctuationsandalackofneedtogrowtheirownmajorregulatorybarriersthatareopportunitiesforglobalindustryInafuturescenariowitheithertrademanufacturingindustriesoverthehamperingpredictabilityandlearnings.barriersoranambitiontoreachcomingyearstoensuretheycanvolumeinwindpipelines.1.5°Ctargets,thewindindustrywillmeetstatedwindtargets,withanlAmoreregionallydistributedquicklyrunintomajorbottlenecks,additionalriskforblades,offshoreBuildingoutregionalsupplychainssupplychainwithmultiple,strongespeciallyinEuropeandNorthtowersandmonopilefoundationswhilemaintainingglobalopenregionscapableofcoveringtheAmerica,wherereachingstatedinNorthAmerica.Tomeetthetradewouldaddressthesegreaterpartoftheirowndemandtargetsbecomesextremelydemandofamoreambitiousbottleneckchallengesand–albeitwiththecontinuedchallengingandanetzerofuturefutureindustry,componentsimultaneouslysupporttheexistenceofglobalisedsupplyimpossible.manufacturingmustbescaledupexpansionofwindsupplyandchainstoensureflexibilityandbyatleast50%globallyby2030.demand.competition–producingatsimilarlTherawmaterialsneededforGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD21CHAPTER2:DEEPDIVEINTOTHEGLOBALWINDSUPPLYCHAINWhile2022sawonly78GWofnewenabletheworldtoachieveitsParisWhatisthestateoftheglobalcomponentsandmaterials.capacityconnectedworldwide,theAgreementtargetsornetzerobywindsupplychain?WherewillHowever,sinceestablishingalocalmarketisreadytobouncebackin2050,GWECbelievesthemilestonetherebeenoughsupplychainwindsupplychainin2008–2010,2023,primarilydrivenbyexpectedofasecondterawattislikelytobecapacitytofeedgrowth?ChinahasnotonlybecomethegrowthinChina.Cumulatively,nearlypassedbeforetheendof2030–world’sleadingwindturbine940GWofwindpowerwasinstalledprovidedtheanticipatedgrowthAsthebirthplaceofthewindmanufacturingbase,butalsothegloballybytheendof2022.GWECmaterialisesinthethreekeywindlargestproductionhubforkeyMarketIntelligenceforecastthatthemarketsofChina,EuropeandtheUS.industry,Europeenjoysamaturecomponentsandmaterials.1TWmilestonewouldbereachedinmid-2023.supplychainspanningturbinenacellesthroughtokeyWindpowerinstallationsneedtotripleby2030inordertoachievea1.5°CpathwayWhatistheexpecteddemand4003,200inthisdecade?Newglobalinstallations(GW)350Orwereachonly77%ofthewindpowerrequiredby2,800Cumulativeglobalinstallations(GW)Comparedwiththe2030globaloutlookreleasedalongsidelast2030tostayontrackforanet-zero/1.5Cpathwayyear’sGlobalWindReport,GWECMarketIntelligencehasincreasedits3002,400forecastfortotalwindpowercapacityadditionsfor2023–2030by250Annualinstallationsneedtogrowbyatleast3x2,000143GW(13%year-on-year).The1,600mainreasonsbehindthisupgrade200include:1501,200lEnergysystemreforminEurope,replacingfossilfuelswith100800renewablestoachieveenergysecurityintheaftermathof50400Russia’sinvasionofUkraine;959478109124135148155170177189lChina’scommitmenttofurtherexpandtheroleofrenewablesin00itsenergymix;20202021202220232024202520262027202820292030lAnanticipatedten-yearinstallationupliftintheUS,drivenbytheNewwindcapacityProjectednewwindcapacitybasedoncurrentgrowthratespassageoftheIRA.Annualcapacitygaptomeetnetzeroby2050cumulativescenariosCumulativewindcapacitytomeetnetzeroby2050scenariosAlthoughtherevisedrateofwindSource:GWECMarketIntelligence;IEANetZeroby2050Roadmap(2023);projectednewwindcapacityfrom2023-2030assumesa~11.7%CAGR,whichisbasedonGWEC’sQ22023growthisstillnotrapidenoughtoGlobalOutlook;capacitygapfiguresareestimationsbasedontheIEARoadmapmilestonefor2030.Thisdatarepresentsnewandcumulativecapacityanddoesnotaccountfordecommissionedprojects.GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD23World’stopfivewindturbineandcomponentproductionhubsbyannualoutput241351.China2.Europe3.India4.USA5.BrazilSource:GWECMarketIntelligence,February2023SinceEuropeanandAmericanturbinepandemic,India,thesecond-largestprominentroleintheglobalwindindustryarestillbasedinAPAC,EuropeOEMsdecidedtodiversifytheirsupplyAsia-Pacific(APAC)hubforturbinesupplychain.andtheAmericas,newentrantshavechainstoensuresecurityofsupply,inassemblyandkeycomponentsalsoemergedintheMiddleEastandtheaftermathoftheCOVID-19production,hasgainedanincreasinglyWhilemostofthesupplierstothewindNorthAfrica(MENA)region.24GWEC.NETTURBINENACELLESTurbineNacelleAssemblyGlobalwindturbinemanufacturingcapacityin2023Globally,thereare153turbinenacelleproductioncapacityisassemblyplantscurrentlyinavailableworldwidein2023.AtfirstOther(APACexcl.ChinaandIndia)1%operation,withanother74facilitiesglance,thewindindustryappearsLATAM4%eitherunderconstructionorinthetohaveenoughnacelleassemblyIndia7%planningstage.Chinahasmorethancapacitytomeettheprojected100nacelleassemblyfacilitiesinglobaldemandupto2027.US9%163GWoperationandanother64underHowever,thepictureisdifferentifEurope19%construction.Withaturbinenacelleseparatebenchmarksareappliedproductioncapacityof98GWperforonshoreandoffshorewind,China(incl.capacityfromthreewesternturbineOEMs)60%year,thecountryaccountsfor60%ofespeciallyataregionallevel.theglobalmarket,makingitbyfarNote:Windturbinemanufacturingcapacityreferstowindturbinenacelleassemblycapabilityanddoesn’trepresenttheworld’sdominantturbinenacelleChallengesinthesupplychainactualnacelleproductionin2023.manufacturinghub.foronshorewindnacellesSource:GWECMarketIntelligence,February2023Europeistheworld’ssecond-Chinadominatesglobalonshorelargestturbinenacelleproductionwindturbinenacelleassemblywithbase,withassemblyfacilities82GWofidentifiedannualcapacity.mainlylocatedinGermany,Outofthistotal,12GWisfromtheDenmark,Spain,France,PortugalthreewesternOEMs:Vestas,SGREandTurkey.TheUSistheworld’sandGERenewableEnergy.third-largestwindnacellemanufacturinghub,followedbyWith21.6GWofannualassemblyIndiaandLatinAmerica(LATAM)capacityperyear,Europeisthe–primarilyBrazil.world’ssecond-largestonshoreturbinenacelleproductionbase,Ourdatashowsthat163GWoffollowedbytheUS(13.6GW),India(11.5GW)andLATAM(6.2GW).OverviewofglobalwindturbinenacellefacilitiesWhenwecomparetheseproductioncapacitieswiththeChinaEuropeIndiaUSALATAMAsiaPacificAfrica&METotalonshorewinddemandprojected631123forthisdecade,weconcludethatTotalnumberofnacelleassemblyfacilities(onshore)77(4)1613404030thesupplychaininChina,Indiaand00019LATAMwillhaveenoughnacelleTotalnumberofnacelleassemblyfacilities(offshore)20(1)500productioncapacityto055accommodatedemand,whiletheNumberofannouncednacelleassembly17020restoftheworld,inabusinessasfacilities(onshore)usualscenario,willcontinuetorely4710340Numberofannouncednacelleassemblyfacilities(offshore)facilitiesownedbywesternturbineOEMs26GWEC.NETOnshorewinddemandandsupplybenchmark,2023–2031(MW)TurbineNacelleAssemblyOnshoreturbinenacellecapacityOnshoreturbinenacellecapacityOnshoreturbinenacellecapacityexcl.China&India,2023inChina,2023inIndia,2023RoW1%(350)WesternturbineOEMs15%(12,000)ChineseturbineOEMs11%(1,200)LATAM15%(6,150)41,75082,00011,500MWMWMWNorthAmerica32%(13,650)ChineseturbineOEMs85%(70,000)WesternturbineEurope52%(21,600)OEMs50%(5,800)IndianturbineOEMs39%(4,500)Demandvssupplyanalysis2023-2030(MW)2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e2100023300235002400025000Europe1450017700189001300015000170001800020000US51005000500050005000LATAM70009000100006000060000650006500065000China50004500450050005000India5900540052001320013400140001430015000RoW117300121200129000131300135000Global570006000060000lSufficientlPotentialbottleneck3400390051005600101001010093400106100109300Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,September2023onimportedwindturbinestocopeowninChinaandIndia.However,ifseesupplychainconstraintsinbothoccurrenceasbufferroomiswiththeanticipatedgrowth.thefreeflowoftheglobalwindsupplyregionsbythemiddleofthisdecade.normallyrequiredtoensurethechainisinterruptedbyproposedsupplyandproductioncapacitywillForEuropeandtheUS,weexpectregionalinitiativessuchas‘MadeinEvenassumingthatallofthebeimpactedbytheintroductionofsufficientsupplythroughoutthisEurope’and‘MadeintheUSA’–andexistingnacelleproductionnewturbineswithgreaterpowerdecadeifwesternturbineOEMscannonewnacelleassemblycapacityiscapacityinEuropeandtheUScanrating–weforeseebottleneckssmoothlymobilisethecapacitytheybuiltatthesametime–weexpecttobefullyutilised–anunlikelyoccurringfrom2026.GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD27TurbineNacelleAssemblyOffshorewinddemandandsupplybenchmark,2023–2030(MW)OffshoreturbinenacellecapacityExpectedoffshoreturbinenacellecapacityOffshoreturbinenacellecapacityexcl.China,2023excl.China,2024inChina,2023NorthAmerica0%NorthAmerica0%China(nonCNOEMs)6%(1,000)APACexcl.China17%(1,900)16,000MW11,40015,200MWMWAPACexcl.China24%(3,700)Europe83%(9,500)Europe76%(11,500)China(CNOEMs)94%(15,000)Demandvssupplyanalysis2023-2030(MW)2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e959810808162252046526400Europe5148291665271500015000150001500015000China26953256503055356995APACexcl.China8000120001400035354500450045004500NorthAmerica00001350LATAM1769155928843082833564407554550054245GloballSufficientlPotentialbottleneck5339552335000154501743025746Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,September2023ChallengesinthesupplychaintheAPACregion.hasanoffshoreturbinenacellenacellefacilitycomesintooperationforoffshorewindnacellescapacityof1.9GW,mainlylocatedininEasternEurope.Chinaistheworld’snumber-onetheTaiwanareaandSouthKorea.Comparedwithonshorewind,theoffshoreturbinenacelleproductionNooffshoreturbinenacellesupplychainforoffshorewindcentre,withannualassemblycapacityInEurope,thecurrentnacelleassemblyfacilityiscurrentlyinturbinesismoreconcentrated,dueofupto16GW,ofwhich1GWisassemblycapacityforoffshorewindoperationinNorthAmerica,tothefactthatmorethan99%ofownedbyonewesternturbineOEM.isabout9.5GW,with11.5GWalthoughGERenewableEnergy,globaloffshorewindinstalledExcludingChina,theAPACregionanticipatednextyearwhenanewSGREandVestasannouncednacellecapacityislocatedinEuropeand28GWEC.NETinvestmentplansinNewYorkandLookingatAPAC(excludingChina),NewJerseyinQ12023.SimilartoalthoughoffshoreturbinenacelleNorthAmerica,LATAMhasnocapacityislikelytoincreaseto3.7offshorenacelleassemblyfacilitiesGWafterexpansionworkisdespiteChineseturbineOEMcompletedatoneoftheexistingMingyanglookingforoffshorewindfacilitiesin2024,itwillstillbeinvestmentopportunitiesinBrazilinsufficienttomeetdemandinthissince2020.regionfrom2027.TakingintoaccountestimatesthatdemandforLookingatthedemandandsupplyoffshorewindturbinesinthisregionsituationforthisdecade,ourwillreach7GWin2030,itisbenchmarkresultsshowmoreimperativethattheinvestmentplanschallengesforoffshorewindthanannouncedbywesternOEMsinforonshorewind.GWECMarketpartnershipwithJapaneseandIntelligencedoesnotseeanyKoreanfirmsmaterialiseintime.problemsarisinginthenearterm,giventhatEuropeanOEMsareableIntheUS,consideringtheIRA’stosharespareoffshorenacelledomesticcontentrequirementsandassemblycapacitywithemergingthetwo-yearleadtimeneededtomarketsinAPACandNorthbuildanewoffshorewindnacelleAmericain2023–2024.productionfacilityfromscratch,itisoftheutmosturgencythatGEHowever,thesituationisgoingtoRenewableEnergy,SGREandVestaschange.Startingin2026,weexpectturntheirinvestmentplansintorealEurope’sexistingoffshoreturbineaction.nacelleassemblycapacitytonolongerbeabletosupportgrowthTherearenoplansforoffshorewindoutsideofEurope.projectstobebuiltinLATAMuntilthelatterpartofthisdecade.However,Infact,weexpectthatfrom2028earlyinvestmentisneededtoavoidEurope’soffshorewindturbinebottlenecks.ThisisespeciallytrueofnacelleassemblycapacitywillBrazil,where71offshorewindstruggletocopewiththegrowthprojects,totallingmorethan170GW,anticipatedinEuropealone.Existinghadfiledenvironmentalinvestigationcapacityneedstodoubleinordertolicencesbytheendof2022,meettheprojecteddemandforthisaccordingtothecountry’sMinistryofregionin2030.MinesandEnergy.29StrapKEYCOMPONENTSGWEC.NETKeyComponentsGearboxesAlthoughthegearboxisnottheWindgearboxdemandandsupplybenchmark,2023–2030(MW)biggestcontributortowindturbines’Globalwindgearboxproductioncapacityin2023Threetypesofdrivetrainoverallfailurerates,itleadstothetechnologiesareinuseinthewindmostsignificantdowntimeEurope10%(1,700)industrytoday:theconventionalexperiencedbyturbineownershigh-speedgeardrive,themedium-onceitfails.APACexcl.Chinaspeedgeardrive(orhybriddrive)andIndia1%anddirectdrive(withoutgearbox).Today,thereare18sizeableturbine(1,500)gearboxsuppliers(includingtwoBothconventionalhigh-speedwindwindturbineOEMs,SGREandIndia9%turbinesandmedium-speedwindEnvision)activeintheglobalwind(15,500)turbinesusegearboxestoconvertsupplychain.Basedontheirrotationalenergyintoelectricalannouncedannualmanufacturing166,500MWpower.Theconventionalhigh-speedcapacity,collectivelytheycangearedsystemhasbeentheprovidemorethan165GWofwindChina(non-Chinesesuppliers)China(Chinesesuppliers)mainstayofwindturbinetechnologygearboxcapacityperyear.14%(23,500)66%(109,000)witha68.2%marketsharein2022,followedbydirectdrive(22.1%)andAsforgeographicaldistributionbyhybriddrive(9.7%).region,90%(or150GW)oftheidentifiednewgearboxThegearboxisoneofthemostmanufacturingcapacityislocatedincriticalandexpensivecomponentsofaconventionalwindturbine.Gearboxdemandvs.supplyanalysis,2023-2030(MW)2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e1400019240197102012522125NorthAmerica80001000011000484547504875487552132063025113268202732329865LatinAmerica560551304940456047505225522557006600066750728757450074500Europe1379415555182915000450047505250550079988304856292869898Africa&ME95030403135123033133407142817146584152800lSufficientlPotentialbottleneckChina516006360065200India340039005100OtherAPAC416165876446Total87510107812114112Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,September2023GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD31KeyComponentsAPAC,withtheremainder(17GW)aretheworld’stwolargestwindinEurope.Bycountry,80%(or133gearboxmanufacturingbases,soGW)islocatedinChina,ofwhichbothmarketshavesufficient82%(109GW)isownedbyChinesecapacitytoaccommodatedemandlocalgearboxproducersandtherestin2023–2030.(or24GW)isownedbyEuropeanmanufacturersbasedinChina,EuropecurrentlyhasanannualfollowedbyIndia(9%),Germanywindgearboxproductioncapacity(6%),Belgium(3%),Spain(1%)andof17GW,whichissufficientfortheJapan(1%).predictedmarketgrowthintheChinaandIndiaaretheworld’stwolargestwindgearboxmanufacturingbases,sobothmarketshavesufficientcapacitytoaccommodatedemandin2023–2030.Demandandsupplyanalysisnearterm(2023–2024).Althoughimportsareneededtofillthegapinavailable,whichmeansthatgearboxEuropeangearboxmanufacturersthisregion.demandmustbeentirelysatisfiedBasedonGWECMarketwillhavehugeproductioncapacitythroughimports.BottleneckswillIntelligence’sturbinedrivetrainavailableinAsia,deficitsareInNorthAmerica,LATAMandoccurifrestrictivetradepoliciesandoutlook,annualglobalwindpossiblefrom2025,dependingonAfrica&MiddleEast,nonewwindlocalcontentrequirementscomegearboxdemandwillgrowfromwhetherEuropeansupplierssuchgearboxmanufacturingcapacityisintoplay.87.5GWin2023to152.8GWinasFlenderandZFwillbeableto2030.Collectively,with166.5GWoffreelymovetoEuropethewindannualwindgearboxgearboxestheyproduceinChinamanufacturingcapacitybeingandIndia.available,wedon’texpectbottlenecksintheglobalwindInAPACexcludingChinaandIndia,gearboxsupplychainfortherestofonly1.5GWofgearboxproductionthedecade.capacityisavailable,whichisinsufficienttocoverthegrowthHowever,thesituationisdifferentatprojectionin2023–2030.Thus,theregionallevel.ChinaandIndia32GWEC.NETKeyComponentsGeneratorstobecapableofmanufacturingmoreWindgeneratordemandandsupplybenchmark,2023–2030(MW)than156GWofwindturbineThegeneratormakesupgeneratorcapacityperyear.Globalwindgeneratorproductioncapacityin2023approximately4-6%ofthecostofaSouthAmerica2%(3,500)conventionalturbineandupto40%Intermsofregionaldistribution,81%NorthAmerica1%(2,000)ofthecostofadirect-driveturbine.(or127GW)oftheidentifiedwindEurope16%(24,500)Thegeneratoriscrucialtoturbinegeneratorproductionproducingelectricityfromwind,asitcapacityislocatedinAsiaPacific,APACexcl.convertsmechanicalpowerinto16%(or25GW)inEurope,2%(orChina3%(3,850)electricalpower.Askey3.5GW)inSouthAmericaand1%incomponents,generatorsarebothNorthAmerica.India5%(8,250)manufacturedin-housebywindturbinevendorsandsourcedfromBycountry,73%(or115GW)ofthe155,600MWindependentgeneratorsuppliersidentifiedwindgenerator(thirdparties).manufacturingcapacityislocatedinChina(non-Chinesesuppliers)China(Chinesesuppliers)China,ofwhich85%(97GW)is11%(17,500)62%(97,000)Worldwide,27turbinegeneratorownedbyChineselocalwindmanufacturersareactiveintheglobalgeneratorproducersand15%(18windsupplychain,ofwhich22areGW)comesfromEuropeanOEMs.independentgeneratorproducersThismakesChinatheworld’slargestandfivearewindturbineOEMswithwindgeneratormanufacturinghub,in-housewindturbinegeneratorproduction.These27suppliersclaimGeneratordemandvs.supplyanalysis,2023-2030(MW)2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e1753520500225002350025500NorthAmerica85331095513335510050005000500063503059834108397254446551400LatinAmerica5900540052004800500055005500600050204500500055006000Europe19648206162542775000750008000080000800001007510656120301283513995Africa&ME100032003300148128154764169755176800189245lSufficientlPotentialbottleneckIndia340039005100China650007200074000OtherAPAC536974598684Total108850123530135046Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,September2023GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD33KeyComponentsfollowedbyIndia(5.3%),GermanyGWin2023to189GWin2030.InEurope,currentannualwindSomewindgeneratorproduction(4.8%),Finland(4.2%),VietnamBecause156GWofwindgeneratorgeneratorproductioncapacityiscapacityisavailableinNorthAmerica,(2.4%),Brazil(2.2%),Spain(1.9%),manufacturingcapacityperyearis24.5GW,whichissufficienttosatisfyLATAMandAPACexcludingChinaSerbia(1.9%),Bosnia(1.3%),Unitedavailableatpresent,wedon’texpectthepredictedmarketgrowthinandIndia,butthevolumeidentifiedinStates(1.3%),France(1%),Austriabottlenecksintheglobalwind2023–2024.AsEuropeangeneratoreachregioncanonlymeet20%,60%(0.6%)andSouthKorea(0.1%).generatorsupplychainbefore2028.producershave17.5GWofwindand70%oftheircurrentdemand,generatorproductioncapacityrespectively.Theseregions,alongsideDemandandsupplyanalysisAtaregionallevel,ChinaandIndiaavailableinChinaand6.5GWinAfricaandtheMiddleEast,need–theworld’stwolargestwindIndia,nobottlenecksareexpectedimportsfromChina,IndiaandEuropeBasedonGWECMarketgeneratormanufacturinghubs–haveforEuropefrom2025iftheycantofillthegapin2023–2024,andfromIntelligence’sQ2GlobalWindMarketsufficientcapacitytoaccommodatebringingeneratorsfromAsiawithoutChinaandIndiafrom2025ifnonewOutlook,annualglobalwindturbinedemandin2023–2030.anydisruptions.investmentismadelocally.generatordemandwillgrowfrom10934GWEC.NETKeyComponentsBladesTurbinebladesconnecttotherotorproducersand14arewindturbineWindbladedemandandsupplybenchmark,2023–2030(MW)hub,whichthenconnectstotheOEMs.Basedontheirannounceddrivetrainthroughthemainshaft.Asannualmanufacturingcapacity,Globalwindbladeproductioncapacityin2023thewindblows,thisinterconnectedcollectivelytheycansupply157GWsystemconvertswindenergyintoperyearofrotorbladecapacity.AfricaandME0.2%(300)156,800MWrotationalenergy.Rotorbladesaccountforapproximately15%ofaIntermsofregionaldistribution,73%SouthAmerica9%windturbine’scosts.(or114GW)oftheidentifiedrotor(14,000)bladeproductioncapacityislocatedTypically,mostutility-scalewindinAPAC,13%(or20GW)inEurope,NorthAmerica5%turbineshavethreebladeswithan8.9%(or14GW)inLATAM,4.9%(or(7,700)upwinddesignmadeoffibre-7.7GW)inNorthAmericaand0.2%reinforcedepoxycompositematerial.inAfricaandtheMiddleEast.Europe13%Otherbladeoptionsareavailable,(20,400)butthissymmetricallybalancedyetBycountry,64%(or101GW)ofthelightweightdesignallowsforidentifiedwindblademanufacturingAPACexcl.Chinasmootherandhigherenergyoutput.capacityislocatedinChina,ofwhichandIndia0.4%94%(95GW)isownedbyChinese(600)Thirtyturbinerotorbladewindbladeproducersand6%(6manufacturersarecurrentlyactiveinGW)byEuropeanmanufacturers.India8%theglobalwindsupplychain,ofIndiaistheworld’slargestwind(12,920)which16areindependentrotorbladeblademanufacturinghubafterChina(non-Chinesesuppliers)China(Chinesesuppliers)4%(6,000)61%(94,900)Bladedemandvs.supplyanalysis,2023-2030(MW)2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e1753520500225002350025500NorthAmerica85331095513335510050005000500063503059834108397254446551400LatinAmerica5900540052004800500055005500600050204500500055006000Europe19648206162542775000750008000080000800001007510656120301283513995Africa&ME100032003300148128154764169755176800189245lSufficientlPotentialbottleneckIndia340039005100China650007200074000OtherAPAC536974598684Total108850123530135046Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,September2023GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD35KeyComponentsChina,withamarketshareofmoremanufacturingcentres,andboththan8%,followedbyDenmarkmarketshavesufficientproduction(6.4%),Brazil(5.1%),theUnitedcapacitytocoverthepredictedStates(4.3%),Mexico(3.8%),Turkeydemandfortherestofthedecade.(2.7%),Poland(1.9%),France(1.3%)andCanada(0.6%).Inaddition,Europe’scurrentannualwindbladesomeblademanufacturingcapacityproductioncapacityis20.4GW,existsinMoroccoandIran.whichissufficienttosatisfythepredictedmarketgrowthinthenearDemandandsupplyanalysisterm(2023–2024).TheabilityofEuropeanbladeproducerstomeetAccordingtoGWECMarketgrowthfrom2025willdependonIntelligence’sQ2GlobalWindwhethertheycancontinuetouseMarketOutlook,globalwindturbinetheircapacityinAPACandLATAMbladedemandwillgrowfrom109withoutanysupplychainGWin2023to155GWin2027.disruptions.Worldwide,with157GWperyearofwindturbineblademanufacturingWindbladeproductioncapacityiscapacitycurrentlyavailable,wecurrentlyavailableinNorthAmerica,expectnobottlenecksintheglobalLATAM,APACexcludingChinaandwindbladesupplychainbetweenIndia,andAfrica&MiddleEast.Only2023and2027.WithoutfurtherLATAMhasenoughbladeproductioninvestment,however,adeficitiscapacityavailabletoaccommodatelikelytooccurfrom2028.theprojectedgrowth,however.TheglobalsupplychainforwindForNorthAmerica,Africa&MiddleturbinebladesismorediversifiedEastandAPACexcludingChinaandthanthatforwindgearboxesandIndia,today’sbladeproductiongenerators,withChinaaccountingcapacitycanonlymeet90%,30%andfor64%oftheglobalmarket.11%oftheircurrentdemand,Althoughbladeproductionfacilitiesrespectively.Tofillthegapduringtheareavailableinallregionswhereforecastperiod,thethreeregionswillwindturbinesareexpectedtobeneedimportsfromChina,Indiaandbuiltthisdecade,bottlenecksareLATAM.Anytradepolicyrestrictionslikelytooccurinsomeregions.andsupplydisruptionsarelikelytocreatesupplychainbottlenecksinChinaandIndiaaretheworld’stwothoseregions.largestwindturbineblade36GWEC.NETKeyComponentsPowerconverterThepowerconverter,whichisusedcapacity,ofwhichonly14GWPowerconverterdemandandsupplybenchmark,2023–2030(MW)asaninterfacetothegrid,isakeycomesfromwindturbineOEMs’componentofvariablespeedwindin-houseproduction.Globalwindpowerconverterproductioncapacityin2023turbines.ItconvertsthevariablegeneratorfrequencyandvoltageofIntermsofregionaldistribution,87%SouthAmerica2%(4,850)theturbineintoaconstantfrequency(or198GW)oftheidentifiedpowerNorthAmerica1%(1,800)andvoltage(ACtoDCorDCtoAC),converterproductioncapacityisEurope10%(21,900)sothattheelectricalpowerlocatedinAsiaPacific,10%(or22APACexcl.ChinageneratedbythewindturbinecanGW)inEurope,2%(or5GW)inandIndia1%(2,250)befedintothegridthroughtheSouthAmerica,1%(or2GW)inIndia5%(10,600)transformer.ItaccountsforNorthAmerica.Atpresent,nowindapproximately4-5%ofthecostofaturbinepowerconverterproduction222,770MWconventionalturbine.capacityisidentifiedinAfrica&MiddleEast.China(non-Chinesesuppliers)China(Chinesesuppliers)Globally,18windturbinepower4%(10,000)77%(175,020)convertermanufacturersareBycountry,82%(or185GW)ofthecurrentlyactive,ofwhich14areidentifiedpowerconverterindependentproducersandfouraremanufacturingcapacityislocatedinwindturbineOEMs.AccordingtoChina,ofwhich95%(175GW)isourlatestsurvey,theycanproduceownedbyChinesepowerconverter226GWperyearofpowerconverterproducersand5%(10GW)byPowerconverterdemandvs.supplyanalysis,2023-2030(MW)2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e1753520500225002350025500NorthAmerica85331095513335510050005000500063503059834108397254446551400LatinAmerica5900540052004800500055005500600050204500500055006000Europe19648206162542775000750008000080000800001007510656120301283513995Africa&ME100032003300148128154764169755176800189245lSufficientlPotentialbottleneckINDIA340039005100China650007200074000OtherAPAC536974598684Total108850123530135046Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,CWEA,Brinckmann,September2023GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD37KeyComponentsenoughcapacitytocovertheirdemandin2023–2030.CurrentpowerconverterproductioncapacityinEuropeis22GW,whichissufficienttocopewiththepredictedmarketgrowthin2023–2024.IfEuropeanOEMscanmobilisetheirpowerconvertercapacitylocatedinChinaandIndia,capacitywillbeenoughtocopewithgrowthinEuropeupto2027.However,adeficitisexpectedinEuropefrom2028unlessfurtherinvestmentismadeorEuropeanOEMsoutsourcepowerconverterstoChina-basedthird-partysuppliers.EuropeanmanufacturersbasedinconvertermarketwillgrowfromlikelytooccuriftheglobalsupplyAlthoughpowerconverterproductionChina.Indiaistheworld’ssecond-109GWin2023to189GWinchainflowisinterruptedbytradecapacityisavailableinNorthAmerica,largestpowerconverter2030.Globally,morethan220GWpolicyrestrictionsandlocalcontentLATAMandAPACexcludingChinamanufacturingbase,withmorethanofannualpowerconverterrequirements.andIndia,itisinsufficienttomeetthe10GWofannualproductioncapacitymanufacturingcapacityisavailablepredictedmarketgrowthineach(or5%globalmarketshare),atpresent.Inprinciple,noChinaistheworld’slargestwindregionduringtheforecastperiod.followedbyDenmark(9.5GWorbottlenecksareexpectedforturbinepowerconverter4%),Germany(5.5GWor2%),powerconvertersfortherestofthemanufacturingcentrewithacurrentTofillthegap,therearetwooptions:Spain(5.5GWor2%),Brazil(4.9GWdecade.productioncapacityofnearlythreeoneistoinvestmore–anunrealisticor2%)andtheUS(1.8GWor1%).timesthecurrentlocaldemand.InprospectundercurrentsupplychainAlthoughexistingpowerconverterIndia,annualpowerconverterchallengesincludinghighinflation,Demandandsupplyanalysisproductioncapacityisabletoproductioncapacityiscloseto11highinterestratesandlowmargins;accommodateglobalgrowthevenGW,whichisalsothreetimeshigheranotherisforallregionstoimportGWECMarketIntelligence’sQ2beyond2030,thesituationisdifferentthanitscurrentdemand.Therefore,powerconvertersfromChinaandGlobalWindMarketOutlookattheregionallevel.BottlenecksarewebelievethetwomarketshaveIndia.Anytradepolicyrestrictionspredictsthattheglobalpowerandsupplydisruptionsarelikelytocreatesupplychainconstraintsinthoseregions.38GWEC.NETKeyComponentsTowerstogetherwithotherturbineAccordingtoGWECMarketmarketsandeachregion.componentsuntilinstallation.Intelligence’slatestsurvey,ChinacanAsthebaseofawindturbine,theproducearound20,000unitsofwindChallengesinthesupplychainfortowerisanindependentcomponentGreaterdiversificationinthetowersperyear,accountingfor54%onshorewindtowersthataccountsforapproximately20%supplychainoftheglobalmarket.AlthoughChinaoftheturbinecost,makingitoneofisthegloballeader,theglobalsupplyGlobally,morethan34,000unitsofthemostexpensivecomponents.Worldwide,therearemorethan50chainfortowersismorediversifiedonshorewindtowersareavailableBecauseitstechnicalrequirementswindtowersuppliers.Together,thanforotherkeycomponents.today,andanother4,450unitsarearecomparativelylow,thetoweristheycanproducenearly38,000expectedby2026accordingtothenormallythefirstcomponentthattowersperyear–90%(34,000Intermsofannualoutput,Europeisplansdisclosedbytowerproducers.turbinevendorstrytosourcelocally.towers)foronshorewindandthethesecondlargestwindtowerTowers,canbemadeofthreerest(nearly4,000towers)forproductionbase,withaglobalTheonshorewindtowerdemandmaterials:steel,concreteandwood.offshorewind.marketshareof18%,followedbyandsupplybenchmarkshowsthatTheydonotneedtobeassembledNorthAmerica,India,theAPACthewindindustryappearstohaveregionexcludingChinaandIndia,enoughonshorewindtowerstomeetTotalglobalonshoreandoffshorewindtowerproductioncapacityLATAMandAfrica&ME.theprojectedglobaldemanduptoin2023(units/year)2030inallregionsexceptAfricaandTowerdemandandsupplytheMiddleEast.Europe18%37,940analysis(6,630)ThecurrentproductioncapacityforChina(Chineseproducer)ToproduceademandandsupplyonshorewindtowersinAfrica&MELatinAmerica3%53%(19,910)benchmarkfortowers,GWECis450unitsperyear,whichis(1,300)MarketIntelligenceconverteditsenoughtocopewiththegrowthinQ22023GlobalWindMarket2023.Although200towersareNorthAmerica11%OutlookfortowersfromMWsintoaexpectedtobeaddedinthisregion(4,050)numberofunits.Foroffshorewind,by2026,weexpectabottleneckRestofWorldtheconversionisbasedonthewhengrowthinthisregionresumes1%(450)projectpipelinewehaveidentifiedfrom2024.APACexcl.Chinaforeachmarket.Inmanycases,andIndia6%(2,400)developersannouncetheturbineGiventhatthereisasurplusofIndia7%(2,800)modelsfortheiroffshorewindonshorewindtowersoutsidethisChina(non-Chineseproducer)projectsseveralyearsaheadofregionandnotraderestrictionsin1%(400)construction.Foronshorewind,theplaceforimportedwindconversionisbasedontheaveragecomponents,webelievethegapcanSource:CWEA,Brinckmann,September2023turbinesizeestimatedforthekeybeeasilycovered.GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD39KeyComponentsDemandandsupplysidebenchmark,onshorewindtowers,2023–2030Plannedonshorewindtowerproductioncapacityupto2026(units/year)Totalglobalonshorewindtowerproductioncapacityin2023(units/year)China(Chineseproducer)22%(1,000)Europe18%(5,930)Europe25%(1,100)LatinAmerica4%34,030LatinAmerica9%4,450India25%(1,300)(400)RestofWorld4%(200)(1,100)NorthAmerica12%China(Chineseproducer)49%(4,050)(16,800)NorthAmerica15%(650)AfricaandME1%(450)APACexcl.ChinaandIndia7%(2,300)India8%(2,800)China(non-Chineseproducer)1%(400)Demandandsupplysidebenchmark,onshorewindtowers,2023–2030(units)NorthAmerica2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030eLatinAmerica22862222244428003200327331673500Europe131110801040927909833833769Africa&ME32223540378042004236427340003846India25071173396010001000917923China13601418170015381286120012501111OtherAPAC11400109091000092318571866781257647Total80011801160134513451250130012312062921061208582100220548204951959219027lSufficientlPotentialbottleneckSource:GWECMarketIntelligence,CWEA,Brinckmann,Sepetember2023Challengesinthesupplychainforappearinallregionsasidefromaccommodatedemandin2023–2025.theannouncedproductionplansforoffshorewindtowersChina.However,offshorewindtowerdemandthisregion–anextra400units/yearisexpectedtosurpasscurrentannual–materialiseontime,adeficitisstillTheglobalsupplychainforInEurope,annualproductioncapacityproductionoutputfrom2026.Whileexpectedfrom2028,whenoffshoreoffshorewindtowerslooksmoreforoffshorewindtowersiscurrentlythepotentialbottleneckspredictedforwindtowerdemandisexpectedtochallengingthanthatforonshoreabout700units,whichisenoughto2026and2027canbeaddressedifexceed1,100units.wind.Bottlenecksarelikelyto40GWEC.NETDemandandsupplysidebenchmark,offshorewindtowers,2023–2030KeyComponentsTotalglobaloffshorewindtowerproductioncapacityin2023(units/year)Plannedoffshorewindtowerproductioncapacityupto2026(units/year)Europe18%Europe32%(400)(700)LatinAmerica3%(100)3,9101,250LatinAmerica4%(50)NorthAmerica16%(200)China(Chineseproducer)79%(3,110)China(Chineseproducer)48%(600)Offshorewindtowerdemandvs.supplyanalysis,2023-2030(units)Europe2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030eChina520259559760761114714361821India8891,263143613641250115410711000APACex.China&India00020343468NorthAmerica241231263240285334363422LATAM4274194294339308306302Africa&ME0000000108Total0000000016921827245226602635297732103721Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,CWEA,Brinckmann,September2023lSufficientlPotentialbottleneckIntheAPACregionexcludingChinaCurrently,nooffshorewindtowerinterruptedbyrestrictivetradepolicyrequiresacoastallocationwithandIndia,100offshorewindtowerproductioncapacityisavailableinandnonewinvestmentismadelocally.significantlaydownareasunitsarecurrentlyavailable,whichNorthAmerica,LATAMandIndia.(>150,000m²)andtakesatleastthreecanonlymeetlessthanhalfoftheBottlenecksareexpectedifthecurrentItisworthhighlightingthatbuildingayears,dependingonthepermittingdemandpredictedforthisregion.flowoftheglobalsupplychainisnewoffshorewindtowerfacilityprocessfortheproductionsite.GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD41KeyComponentsCastingsSpheroidalGraphiteCastIroncomparedwithothermaterialsand,investmentsforthefuture.ThisisEN-GJS-400-18-LT,alsoknownastherefore,offerssuperiorfatiguelimitedbytoday’sfocusonLCOECastingsplayakeyroleinductileiron,isthepreferredcastingproperties.Moreover,ductileironandprice,however.assemblingandoperatingawindmaterialinthemegawatt-dominatedhashigheryieldstrength,isabrasiveturbine.Asthewindturnsthem,thewindturbineindustry.Otherandcorrosionresistant,aswellasTraditionally,foundrieshaveactedasrotorbladestransferseverefatiguematerialgradesfromGJS-500andbetteratshockabsorption.tier2ortier3suppliers,lettingtheloadstothecastedcomponentsanduptoGJS-700arealsoinuse,butallmachiningsupplybasebetheOEMthentothewindtower.ThroughthehavethesamebasicpropertiesasAsatraditionalindustrywithinterface.Severallargewindturbinerotorhubtothedrivetrainandtheductileiron.non-automatedtechnologyandlowOEMstypicallyownedtheirownnacellebedframe,awindturbineannualproductionvolumesscatteredin-housefoundriesandmachinedemandsseveralcastings,includingBecauseofitshighercarbonandacrossseveralfoundriesinEurope,shopsinthepast,butthisisnowrotorhub,mainframe,gearboxsiliconcontent,ductileironhasChinaandIndia,thecastingindustrylimitedtoafewOEMssuchashousing,mainshaftsandbearingsgreaterfluidityandlessshrinkagewouldbenefitfromheavyCAPEXDongfangandSuzlon.Currentlythehousing.Totalglobalcastingcapacityvs.totalglobalcastingcapacityallocatedtothewindindustryin2023Totalglobalcastingscapacityin2023(tonnes/year)Totalglobalwindcastingscapacityin2023(tonnes/year)MiddleEast1%(51,200)NorthAmerica1%(60,000)MiddleEast0.4%(12,000)APACexcl.China1%APACexcl.China2%(30,000)LatinAmerica2%(100,000)LatinAmerica2%(49,900)(100,000)Europe13%Europe12%(762,000)(310,000)India2%India3%(130,000)(79,000)5,913,200China79%2,686,501China82%(4,710,000)(2,205,600)Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,companyinputs,September2023Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,companyinputs,September202342GWEC.NETKeyComponentsinflowishandledthroughknownbarriersformarketentry,therapidSomecastingproductioncapacityisCastingsdemandandindependentsuppliersglobally.growthoftheChinesewindmarketpresentinNorthAmerica,butthesupplyanalysisfrom2006hasmotivatedmanyregiononlyhasasmallnumberofChinadominatestheglobalwindlocalChinesesupplierstoinvestinfoundriesandnonededicatedtotheToworkoutthetotalglobaldemandcastingssupplychainthissector.windindustry.forcastings,wefirstneedtoestimatetheweightofcastedcomponentsBasedonasurveycompletedinQ3Chinahasmorethan40foundriesin2023,foundriescapableofoperationtoday.WithanannualwindDemandandsupplysidebenchmark,onshorewindcastings,2023–2030producingcasteditemsweighingproductioncapacityof2.2millionTotalglobalonshorewindcastingscapacityin2023(tonnes/year)morethantwotonneshaveaglobaltonnes,itaccountsfor82%oftheannualproductioncapacityofnearlyglobalmarket,makingittheworld’sAfricaandMiddleEast0.6%(12,000)India4%sixmilliontonnesofductileirondominantsupplierforwindcastings.(79,000)castings.Europe11%(238,100)LatinAmerica2%Worldwide,around60castingsEuropeistheworld’ssecond(49,900)suppliersarecurrentlyservingthelargestwindcastingsproductionwindindustry.Annualwindcastingsbase,withfoundriesprimarilyNorthAmerica0%2,173,650China83%productioncapacityis2.7millionlocatedinGermany,Spain,(0)(1,794,650)tonnes.AsiaPacifichastheworld’sDenmark,FranceandSweden.largestwindcastingsIndiaisnext,withaglobalmarketOtherAPAC0%(0)manufacturingbaseintermsofshareofnearly3%,followedbyannualoutputandtotalnumberofLATAM,mainlyBrazil,andAPACsuppliers–aswellasthelowestexcludingChinaandIndia–mainlycost.SincecastedcomponentsareintheChineseTaiwanarea.‘built-to-print’productswithlowerOnshorewindcastingsdemandvs.supplyanalysis,2023-2030(tonnes)NorthAmerica20222023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030eLatinAmerica116,73097,275121,594133,753170,231194,550218,869231,028255,347Europe62,01371,74065,66163,22962,01360,79760,79760,79760,797Africa&MiddleEast203,061176,311215,221229,812255,347283,313285,745291,825303,984India8,51212,15938,91040,12658,36560,79766,87666,87672,956China23,10341,34247,42262,01360,79754,71754,71760,79760,797OtherAPAC396,395693,084729,562729,562729,562729,562790,359790,359790,35930,39843,77471,74070,52489,97989,97991,19594,84397,275Total840,2121,135,6841,290,1081,329,0181,426,2931,473,7151,568,5581,596,5241,641,514Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,September2023lSufficientlPotentialbottleneckGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD43KeyComponentsusedinwindturbines.Mainstreamextracastingscapacityisallocatedcastingssupplychainforoffshoreonshoreandoffshorewindproductstoonshorewind.windlooksmorechallenging.44offeredbythreeoftheworld’sWorldwide,halfamilliontonnesoflargestsuppliershavebeenselectedInaddition,supplychainconstraintscastingsareavailableforoffshoreassamples.AccordingtoanalysisbyarelikelytooccurinNorthAmerica,windatpresent.Thisisonlyenoughcastingssupplychainexperts,theLATAM,otherAPACandAfrica&thetocopewiththeglobalmarketaverageweightofcastingsis12.2t/MiddleEastduetoeitherinsufficientgrowthupto2025.MWforonshorewindturbinesandsupplyornocapacityallocatedto17.7t/MWforoffshorewindturbines.windinthoseregions.AstheminimumleadtimetobuildaBasedonGWECMarketlargefoundrycapableofcoveringIntelligence’sQ22023GlobalWindAsChinahassignificantexcesstheoffshorewindindustryistwoMarketOutlook,globalcastingscapacityinonshorewindcasting,weyears–andoftenlongerdependingdemandforonshoreandoffshorebelievethatbottlenecksoutsideofonthepermittingprocess–windcastingsin2023-2030isChinacanbesolvedifthecurrentadditionalcapacityforoffshorecalculated.freeflowoftheglobalwindsupplywindcastingsneedstostartbeingchainisretained.builtnextyeartoavoidfutureChallengesinthesupplychainforbottlenecks.onshorewindcastingsChallengesinthesupplychainforoffshorewindcastingsOntheregionallevel,theremaybeGlobally,morethan2.1millionsupplychainbottlenecksineverytonnesofonshorewindcastingsareAsnorthernEuropeistheregionoftheworldexceptChina.Inavailablein2023.Thewindindustrybirthplaceofoffshorewind,inthetheshortterm(2023–2024),demandappearstohavesufficientcapacityearlydaysmostcastingsuppliersforcastingsfromoffshorewindintomeettheprojectedglobalforthissectorcamefromGermanytheAPACregionexcludingChinademandforonshorewindcastingsandtheNordiccountries.DrivenbyandIndiaisexpectedtobemetbyaupto2030.adesiretoreduceLCOEandthelargelocalfoundry,butnewcapacitytakeoffoftheoffshorewindmarketfromthisfoundryhastobeallocatedHowever,thepictureisdifferentifinChina,thewindcastingssupplytooffshorewindfrom2025tocoverseparatedemandandsupplychainhasalsoshiftedfromEuropethegap.benchmarksareappliedatthetoChina.regionallevel.WeexpectonshoreInEurope,followingoffshorewindwindcastingscapacitytobeGlobally,offshorewindonlyaccountsgrowth,castingdemandhassufficienttoaccommodatetheforlessthan15%ofannualwindrecentlysurpassedsupply.AtgrowthinChinaandIndia.Thepowerinstallations.Inparallel,onlypresent,thereisnoidentifiedcapacityavailableforonshorewind19%oftheidentifiedcapacityforwindcastingcapacityavailableforinEuropeissufficienttocoverthecastingsin2023isforoffshorewind.offshorewindinNorthAmerica,demandupto2025,butshortagesLATAMandIndia.arelikelytooccurfrom2026ifnoComparedwithonshorewind,theGWEC.NETKeyComponentsAsturbineswithpowerratingsfuturesupplyoflargecastingsforthecastings,butitssparecapacityis2026.Newandtimelyinvestmentgreaterthan10MWhavebecomewholeindustry.notenoughtofillthegapisneededtoavoidmajorthenormforoffshorewind,thepredictedfortheglobaloffshorebottlenecksinglobaloffshoreinvestmentneededforanewEnvironmentalconcernsmayalsowindmarketoutsideofChinafromwinddeployment.foundrytoproducelargecastingspreventfoundriesfrominvestinginforoffshorewindisaround$100newandlargefacilities.MeltingDemandandsupplysidebenchmark,offshorewindcastings,2023–2030million.Sincetheglobalwindsupplymetalisanenergy-intensiveprocesschainissufferingfromchallengesthatgeneratessignificantamountsofTotalglobaloffshorewindcastingscapacityin2023(tonnes/year)suchashighinflationandincreasedCO2emissions.Strictenvironmentalinterestrates,itisunlikelythatpermittingrequirementsinregionsEurope14%(71,900)AfricaandMiddleEast0%investmentsofthisscalewillbesuchasEuropeandNorthAmericaIndia0%madebynon-ChinesefoundriesinarelikelytoposeamajorchallengeLatinAmerica0%eitherEuropeorotherregionsintheforfoundryexpansion.NorthAmerica0%shortterm.OtherAPAC6%Itisessentialthatwehaveinplace(30,000)Thegrowingdemandforlargertradepoliciesthatensurethefreecastingsinturnnarrowsthesupplyflowoftheglobalwindsupply512,850basethatiscapableofchaininordertoachievethemanufacturingthem.VolatilityinthecorrectbalanceandavoidChina80%(410,950)windmarket,relativelysmallannualinterruptions.volumesandprofitpressuresonOEMsarereducinglong-termChinaiscurrentlytheonlymarketinvestmentsandtheprospectsforwithasurplusforoffshorewindOffshorewindtowerdemandvs.supplyanalysis,2023-2030(tonnes)NorthAmerica20222023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030eLatinAmerica-9,43816,91141,34862,59879,68679,68679,68679,686Europe--------23,906Africa&MiddleEast43,56291,16151,637115,581169,962191,389287,314362,396467,493India---------China----354-8,8548,85417,708OtherAPAC89,461141,665212,497247,913265,621265,621265,621265,621265,62122,29431,32627,60751,07047,36957,65880,21889,160106,160Total155,318273,590308,652455,912545,905594,354721,693805,718960,575Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,September2023lSufficientlPotentialbottleneckGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD45KEYMATERIALSKeyMaterialsRareearthmaterialsMeetingtheincreasinglyambitiousREPMsources–bothexistingandEstimatedshareofrareearthmaterialsminedandprocessedbyChinaandthewindenergytargetsarisingfromaincoming–operateonthefourthrestoftheworldin2022and2023growingdesiretoreducerelianceonquartileoftheREPMproductioncosttraditionalenergysources–bothincurve,meaningthattheireconomic100%2022100%2023etermsofgeographicalandmaterialincentivesarelowerthanthosefor80%80%dependence–presentsachallengeChineseproducers.60%960%10fromasupplychainperspective.This40%3440%30isparticularlytrueforrareearths,ChineseREPMproducersare20%20%withtoppolicymakersincreasinglysupportedbylowenergycostsand66917090eagertode-riskthesupplychainenergysubsidiesfromlocal0%0%awayfromChina.governmentsseekingtoattractmoreindustrialproduction,aswellasVATMiningProcessingMiningProcessingWindenergyOEMshavebeenrebatesonpurchasedfeedstock.ChinaOtherChinaOtherstrugglingtoobtainthelargeFeedstockprocurementoftenamountsofRareEarthPermanentrepresentsmorethan90%ofthetotalSource:BenchmarkMagnets(REPMs)theyneed.ThisisREPMproductioncost.ThankstodespitesupplygrowingatrecordgovernmentsupportforanalreadyThedemandoutlookforREPMsinOverthesameperiod,thereisaspeedanddemandsofteningthankslow-costREPMmanufacturinghub,Europedifferssignificantlyfromthattentativeexpectationthatrareearthto‘hybrid’windenergytechnologiesChineseproducersinZhejiangandinotherregions.OurdatashowsmininginEuropecoulddeliverfirstincreasinglyreplacingstandardBaotoudominateREPMpriceEuropeanREPMdemandinthewindvolumesby2027,albeitfromonlyadirectdrive(DD)turbinesoverthedynamicsthroughthelargeamountsenergysectorisgrowingrapidly,handfulofreliableproducersandpastfiveyears.Hybridsystemstheyareabletoproduce.largelydrivenbyoffshorewithmodestcapacityfigures.(medium-speeddrivetrains)usejustinstallations.Overthe2023–2030Europeanwindmanufacturerswillone-tenthoftheREPMsneededinaE-mobilityisamajordriverofperiod,annualisedREPMdemandinthereforehavetorelyonaglobalDDdrivetrain.ButevenwithreducedREPMdemand,whichisestimatedEuropeisforecasttoreach23%supplychaintosatisfytheirREPMREPMdemand,sourcingmaterialstohavegrown22.5%CAGRfromCAGRforoffshoreinstallations,andneeds.fromnon-Chinasourcesremainsa2018to2023forthisenduse.14%CAGRforonshore,withEuropechallenge.BenchmarkestimatesthatREPMforlikelytoaccountforaround55%ofTheoppositeistrueofChina.windenergyconsumptionwillglobalREPMdemandinthewindAlthoughChineseproducersInmajormarketssuchasEurope,accountfornomorethan7%oftotalenergysector.dominaterareearthminingandtheUSandAustralia,demandforREPMdemandin2023,growingatREPMsinwindenergyistheaveragerateofotherdemandsubstantiallylargerthanlocalsupply.applicationstoretainthesameThevastmajorityofnon-Chinamarketshareby2026.GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD47KeyMaterialsGWECwindturbinetechnologyforecast(%)andequivalentREPMconsumption(tonnes)25,000aconsiderationnotonlyofcoststructures,butalsooftheabilityto100%sourcetherequiredfeedstockatscale.80%20,000MiningMining,alreadythemostdiversifiedpartoftheindustry,islikelyto60%15,000achievegreatersupply-sidepluralityastheneedfornewrawmaterials40%10,000continuestoexpand.20%5,000BenchmarkexpectsminingcapacitygrowthoutsideofChinaina0%0multitudeofjurisdictionsspanningAfrica,SouthAmerica,Southand2015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030SoutheastAsia,andOceania.AshareofgrowthisexpectedtocomefromConventionalhigh-speedgearedsystemDirectdrivebrownfieldexpansionatexistingMedium-speed(hybrid)driveREPMDemandoperations,suchasinMt.Weld,Australia,whereoutputcapacityisNote:ThischartdisplaysdirectREPMuse(magnentvolumes)inDDandmedium-speeddrivetrainsperannum.itisnotnormalisedtofinalrawmaterialsdemand.expectedtodoubleto12,000tonnesSource:Benchmark,GWECofPrNdperyearby2026.processing–andREPMGivenaverageREPMgradeandreducesingle-sourcedependenceBenchmarkcountsatleast12manufacturing–REPMdemandforPrNd,DyandTbcontentacrosstheentiresupplychain.Asfarprojectsofnoteexpectingfirstoutputwindenergyisexpectedtodropassumptions,theglobalnon-Chinaasminingisconcerned,Chinabefore2026foracapacityof23,000substantiallyasaresultofthewindenergysectorwillrequireacurrentlyaccountsformorethantonnesofPrNdacrosstencountries.cost-drivenshiftfromdirectdrivetocumulative30,000tonnesofrare70%oftotalPrNdminingin2023andNaturally,notallofthiswillbemedium-speedandhigh-speedearthmaterialsby2030.In2023,51%forDy.Andthepictureismuchrealisedwithinthistimeframe.Raredrive.From2023to2030,ChineseminingoperationsoutsideofChinalessdiversefurtherdownstream.earthminesarecomplicatedandwindenergyREPMdemandmayfall(inAustraliaandtheUS)aresettorequirelargecapitalexpenditure,by14%CAGRforonshoreaccountfornomorethan13,000Iftheglobalrareearthmarketistowhichreliesoninvestorswithainstallationsandgrowbyonly4%fortonnesofrelevantrareearthoxidebuildregionalsupplychainsabletosizeableriskappetite.offshoreinstallations.By2030,Chinamaterials.meetwindenergydemand–nottoisforecasttoaccountforonly19%ofmentionother,larger,enduses–forBenchmarkexpectsthatnon-ChinawindenergyREPMdemand,againstAlthoughalternativesourcesofrareREPMs,theeconomicsofprocessingPrNdmininginAustralia,theUSand64%in2023.earthmaterialsexist,itisdifficulttoneedtobefavourable.Thisincludes48GWEC.NETKeyMaterialsRegionalREPMdemandforwindenergy,2023–2030(tonnes)ownseparationcapacity,bothmajorbutalsofromexternalthirdparties.sourcesofnon-Chinaminedsupply14,000willbeprocessingtheirownIntheUS,thegovernmenthas12,000feedstock.Thisensuresacapacityofplayedacrucialroleinfundingthe10,000roughly12,000tonnesofPrNdOxidebuildoutofdomesticprocessingproducedinMalaysia(fromMt.Weld)capacity.Asidefrom$35millionin8,000andintheUS(fromMountainPass).supportforMPMaterials’expansion,theDepartmentof6,000SeveralminedevelopersareDefenserecentlyincreasedits$120intendingtobuildprocessingmillioncontributiontoLynas’4,000capacityabletousefeedstockplannedheavyrareearths-2,000producedattheirsites.SomeinclusiveprocessingfacilityinthenotableexamplesareMkangoandUSto$258million.Various0GrupaAzoty’sPulawyfacilityinannouncementsandplansbyUSAPolandandPensana’sSaltendRareEarths,Ucoreandseveral20232024202520262027202820292030ChemicalsParkfacilityintheUK.otherfirmsindicatethepotentialforfurthergrowthinUSprocessingEuropeChinaOtherAPACCombinedwithexistinglightrarecapacity.NorthAmericaLatinAmericaAfrica&MIddleEastearthseparationcapacityinEstoniafromNeoPerformance,EuropemayProcessingcapacityisSource:Benchmark,GWECseeadditionalindependentcapacityfarmoreelasticthangrowthinFrance(Solvay’sLaminingcapacityandelsewhere–notincludingMyanmarestablishedrareearthprocessingRochelle)andNorway(REEtec).Thiscanscaleupfaster.duetoChineseownershipanddirectmarketoutsideofChinathatisablewouldgrowEurope’srareearthflowsintoYunnanaftermining–willtomeetregionaldemand.processingmarkettothreeItisimportanttonote,however,thatonlyaccountfor27%in2023andindependentfacilities,plusafurtherofftakeagreementstendtoallocate36%by2028.Fordysprosium,Theoutlookisnotentirelytwofacilitiesintegratedwithminingcertainlevelsofprocessedmaterialminingestimatesdropto8%andpessimistic,giventhatprocessingoperationsabroad.fordesignatedcustomers,meaning29%,respectively,duetothelowercapacityisfarmoreelasticthanthatthenumberspresentedarenumberofheavyrareearth-centricminingcapacityandcanscaleupAustralia’sIlukaResources’receiveddemonstrativeofthesizeoftheorebodiesinadvancedstagesoffaster,andthatconcretestepsareanAUD1.25billionnon-recoursenon-Chinaprocessedmarket,anddevelopmentoutsideofChinaandbeingtakentoensureagloballoanfromExportFinanceAustralianotthesizeofmaterialsthatareMyanmar.processingmarketmayarisebyaspartofawiderAUD2billionavailableforspotsales.2026.ProcessingcapacitymayseecriticalmineralsfacilitysetupbytheProcessingsubstantialgrowthinEurope,government.TheEneabbafacilityisAustraliaandtheUS.intendedtoconsumenotonlyMostofthematerialminedinNorthfeedstockfromitsmonazitestockpileAmerica,AustraliaorelsewhereBytheendof2023,astheonlypassesthroughChinaatsomestageexistingNorthAmericanrareearthintheprocessbeforeREPMminer–MPMaterials–scalesupitsconsumption.Indeed,thereisnoGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD49KeyMaterialsAfurthercomplicationarisesfromadvantagesenjoyedbyChinesedecrepitationtorecycleEoLREPMs,processinggrowthisexpectedinthefactthatmanyannouncedmagnetmakersthroughalowercostbuteconomicviabilityishardertoAustralia,theUS,Sub-Saharanprocessingfacilitiesaimtoonlybaseandgovernmentsupportintheprove.ExtractingREPMsfromendAfricaandEurope,itisunclearseparatelightrareearthoxides,formofsubsidiesandVATrebates.usesisoftendifficultbecauseofwhetherthesefacilitieswillservelikelyleavingtheremainingThismeansthatmajorplayerssuchproductdesign,whileeasilylocalmarketsorformpartofadysprosiumandterbiumtobeasJLMag,ZhongkeSanhuan,NingboaccessibleREPMs,suchasthoseinwiderglobalrareearthsupplyprocessedinChina.AlthoughYunsheng,BaotouTianheandNingboharddrives,representrelativelychain.REPMsusedinwindenergyrequireHeliarewellplacedtoachieveansmallamounts.lowerlevelsofDyandTbthanincreasinglydominantposition.TheoutlookforsourcingREPMse-mobility,thesearestillcrucialItisunlikelythatEoLrecyclingwillfromlocalsupplychainsisthereforepartsofthemagnetcomposition,TheUSisthelargestmarketoutsideformasourceofREPMssizeableuncertain.Atruesolutiontosingle-elseitwoulddemagnetisewhentheofChinaforpotentialREPMenoughtosupplythewindenergysourcesupplychaindependencegeneratorsreachhighproduction.Recentannouncementssectorbefore2026.requirestheeconomicsofmining,temperatures.includeREPMproductionbyMPprocessingandREPMproductiontoMaterialsatanewfacilityinTexasConclusionbefavourable,whichmayneedRapidlygrowingareasandabindingagreementbetweencontinuedandextendedgovernmentofdemandwillhavetoGermany’slargestREPMproducerTheambitionforregionalsupplysupportintheUS,AustraliaandrelyonChineseREPM–Vacuumschmelze–andGeneralchainstomeetREPMdemandforEurope.capacityfortheshortMotorstobuildafacilityintheUS.windenergyistemperedbytheAlthoughthevolumesassociatedmanychallengestherareearthEvenifthoseeventsmaterialised,andmediumterm.withtheseannouncementsarelikelyindustryfacesacrossmultiplestagesOEMsmayneedtoacceptthat,forallocatedtoe-mobility,otherfacilitiesofitssupplychain.Giventhesmallrareearths,atrue‘local’supplychainMagnetmakingsuchasthoseplannedbyNoveonanddisjointednatureofrareearthmightonlydevelopintheUSbeforeMagneticsmayindicatetheminingandprocessing–andof2028,leavingEuropeanandotherREPMproductionisconcentratedinemergenceofamarketforREPMREPMmanufacturing–outsideofwindturbinemanufacturersoutsideofChina.At-scaleREPMproductionproductionthatwouldbemeaningfulChina,rapidlygrowingareasofChinatorelyonaglobal–orChinesecapacityexistsinGermanyandforthewindindustry.demandwillhavetorelyonChinese–rareearthssupplychaintomeetJapan,butthevastmajorityisREPMcapacityfortheshortandgrowingREPMdemand.producedinZhejiangandInnerEndofLife(EoL)recyclingpresentsmediumterm.Mongolia.anotheropportunityforgrowingEvenwithfavourablemarketmagnetproductionintheUSandThisisparticularlytrueforEurope,conditions,continuousdemandMagnetmakersinGermanyhaveparticularlyinEurope,wherewhichisexpectedtobethelargestgrowthsuggeststheneedtobesaiditisdifficultforthemtoscaleupgovernmentpolicyfavourscirculardriverorREPMdemandfromwindpragmaticintheshortandmediumduetothesignificanteconomiceconomics.energyinstallationsandhaslittle-to-notermatleast.scaledREPMcapacitythatcansourceSomepilotfacilitieshaveproventherareearthsfromoutsideofChina.WithinputsfromBenchmarkMineralpracticalviabilityofusinghydrogenIntelligenceAlthoughrareearthminingand50GWEC.NETKeyMaterialsCarbonfibremadeofglassfibrecompositesCarbonfibrehasalmostfivetimespressures,ChineseOEMsinthathavearelativelystiff,theaxialstiffnessperkilogramofparticularhavecontinuedtouseMorecarbonfibreneededtolightweightdesignwithahighweightcomparedwithfibreglass,fibreglassforrotorsofupto200minmeetwindturbinebladedemandfatiguelife.Toincreasethewhichenableslongerbladesdiameter.stiffness,turbineOEMsandlargewithoutincreasedrotorloads.AswindturbinescontinuetoscaleinblademanufacturershavestartedFollowinganestimatedpeakofsizetoboostenergyproduction,theincorporatingcarbonfibreHowever,carbonfibreisexpensive.around21,000setsin2024,carbontwokeyfactorsofstiffnessandreinforcementintotheirlargerForthisreason,glassfibreremainedfibredemandforonshorewindweighthavebecomeevenmorebladesstartinginthe2000s.thepreferredchoiceforwindturbinebladesisexpectedtostabilisecriticalforbladedesign.turbinebladesin2022,withcarbonatorjustbelowthe20,000markoverfibrebeingusedonlyinabouttherestofthisdecade.GeographicalMostutility-scalewindbladesareone-thirdofblades.Duetocostmarketshareisexpectedtoremainstablein2026–2030,withChinaGlobalsupplyanddemandofcarbonfibreintonnesrepresentinghalfofthedemand,followedbyEurope(20%)andtheTons220,000+173%Bullcase:Americas(20%).AsiaPacific200,0002020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032●Increasinglycost(excludingChina)andAfrica&the180,000MiddleEastsharedtheremainder.160,000competitivecarbonﬁbre140,000●OngoingfasttransitiontoAswindturbinescontinueto120,000scaleinsizetoboostenergy100,000carbonﬁbrebladesinbothproduction,thetwokeyfactorson&offshoredrivenbyofstiffnessandweighthave80,000growthinbladelengthsbecomeevenmorecriticalfor60,00040,000Basecase:bladedesign.20,000●CFmaterialcostsremainAsthepowerratingofturbinesand0elevatedbutbladelengththelengthofbladesgrow,demandgrowthdrivesdemandforcarbonfibreisexpectedto●Glassﬁbreseescontinuousescalate.Globally,by2027itisapplicationsinbladesestimatedthatmorethan70%of<=100mbladeswillbeusingcarbonfibre.Bearcase:●Growthishinderedbyhighcostsandsupplybottlenecksdrivenbyundercapacity●EnvironmentalimpactdrivessearchforalternativematerialsSupplylowandregulartowcarbonﬁbre(Actual)Windcarbonﬁbredemand(intonnes)(Bear)Windcarbonﬁbredemand(intonnes)(Bull)Largetowsupply(>=48k)(Actual)Windcarbonﬁbredemand(intonnes)(Base)Note:Reﬂectstheoperatingcapacity,andnottheoreticalnameplatecapacitySource:Brinkmann,CompositesWorld,CompositesUnitedGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD51CarbonfibredemandforoffshoreThereiscurrentlynodedicatedwindbladesisestimatedtonearlyproductionofcarbonfibreforthedoubleoverthedecade,withEMEAwindmarketduetothehighcostsoutstrippingChinaby2029andAsiaassociatedwithitandtheexceptChinaalsogrowingfast.Bymanufacturers’preferencefor2030,around3,700bladesetsaremaintainingproductionthattargetsaexpectedtoberequired.widerangeofusers.Asaresult,thecompetitionbetweenthewindThewindindustryrepresentsamarketandotherindustriesinsignificantportionoftheglobalsecuringcarbonfibreisagrowingdemandforcarbonfibrechallenge.WindturbinebladesarebehindaChinasetupin2022itsfirstfacilitysignificantportionoftheglobalcapableofproducinglarge-towdemandforlarge-towcarbonfibre.carbonfibre,butrollingoutsuchThewindturbinemarketfacilitiesisbothexpensiveandlengthy,astheyrequireabouttwoWindturbinebladesyearstoconstructandcommission.arebehindasignificantThisreducestheabilitytoquicklyreacttostrongdemandgrowthwithportionoftheglobalcapacityexpansions.demandforlarge-towAsthewindindustrycompeteswithcarbonfibre.otherendusersforcarbonfibresupplies,itisestimatedthatsupplyrepresentedmorethanone-thirdshortagesoflarge-towcarbonfibrefor(36%)oftheglobaldemandforwindapplicationswillintensifyfromindustrial-typecarbonfibrein2022,2025/26andbecomeacutefrom2028.risingfrom~27%in2020.FurtherincreasesareexpectedasItisexpectedthatglassfibrebladesBrinckmannestimatescarbonfibrewillremainpopular,especiallyindemandforwindpowertoincreaseonshoreapplications,bothforcostbymorethan170%between2023reasonsandbecausebladeand2032.supplierswillstruggletosourcecarbonfibreoverthecomingyears.WithinputfromBrinckmann.52GWEC.NETKeyMaterialsSteelforplateisdwarfedbyotherendtherebeanyconcernoversupplyasanindividualitemitistheseconduses,especiallyconstruction.Whenchainbottlenecksandshortages?largestbehindconcrete.ButforFast-growingwinddemandforputtingwindintothewidercontextoffshorewind,steelrepresents90%steelmaycallforsustainabilityoftotaldemand,thesectorlooksSteelisacriticalrawmaterialforallofthematerialsconsumedpercompromisessmallandonlyaccountsfor8%ofthewindindustryMW.totalworldplatedemand.ThereisnoshortageofsteelinthePartoftheconcernfromthewindIt’snotjustabouttotalsteelplateworld.Yet,fortherapidlygrowingOnthefaceofit,thereseemstobeenergysidearisesbecauseofthewindenergysector,itispossibleplentyofsteelplateintheworldthatcriticalimportanceofsteeltotheThechallengeforthewindenergythatbottlenecksandsupplycouldpotentiallyservethewindsector.Foronshorewind,steelissupplychaincomesnotbecauseconstraintswillmaterialiseintheenergyindustry.Whythenwouldaboutone-quarterofthetotalsteelisscarce–itisnot–butcomingyearsunlessthesectorismaterialsrequiredperMW,thoughbecauseofthewaythattheindustryflexibleonsomeofitsidealsourcingrequirements.Thesector’sdemandforModelledsteelplateconsumptioninthewindenergysector2023-2030,MtSteelisavitalinputtothewindsteelcoulddoublebyenergysectortheendofthedecade.25MaterialsbreakdownforwindfarmsperMW20Thewindenergysectorisakey100%sourceofdemandgrowthforsteelplate.Lookingatten-yearCAGR1580%ratesforecastbyCRUfor2018–2027,windisbyfarthefastest-1060%growingenduseworldwide.540%BasedonGWECMarketIntelligence’s2030globalwind020%marketoutlook,CRUbelievesthat202220232024202520262027202820292030thesector’sdemandforsteelcouldChinaOtherAsiaEuropeAmericasOther0%doublebytheendofthedecade.Source:CRU,GWEC.EstimatedsteelneedsofwindenergycapacityforecasttobeinstalledperyearOffshoreOnshoreTheabsolutescaleofwinddemandSteelOtherSource:GWECMarketIntelligenceGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD53KeyMaterialsThesteelrequiredinwindistheresultofoverlapsofseveralsub-areasideallyrequiresseveralsub-areasofmillscangothickerthanthis,steeltoallintersect.meaningthepoolofsuppliersableSteelgradesandDesiredsupplyoriginstomeetallofthewindindustry’sdimensionsneeded(e.g.ishighexposureTheadjacentVenndiagramproductneedsissmall.forwindtoChinaacceptable?)illustratesthisinqualitativeterms.TheoriginofmaterialshasrisenIsthissufﬁcientCommonsteelgradesareuptheagendaforwindorwilltheresufficientforwindbutdimensionsbebottlenecks?canbenicheMoreattentionisbeingpaidinrecentyearstotheoriginofLow-emissionsteelMuchsteelinwindgoesintomaterialsusedintheindustry.Themonopilefoundations;forthissupplychaindisruptionscausedbySource:CRUpurpose,themostcommongradetheCovid-19pandemichaveusedisS355(Europeanstandard;triggeredquestionsonwhether‘justFewmillsworldwidecancastverythickslabssuitablefortheheaviestwindneedsequivalenttoA572intheUSA).Thisincase’shouldbepreferredoverisnotquiteabasiccommercial‘justintime’,andontheadvantagesMaximumslabcastingthickness,numberofmills140qualitygradebutitisnotfaroffit,ofnearshoringversusoffshoring.andmostifnotallplatemillswould120beabletomakethis.Moreattentionisbeingpaidinrecentyearsto100Wherewindbecomesamoretheoriginofmaterialsdemandingcustomerisonproduct80dimensions.Inextremecases,platesusedintheindustry.ofupto150mmthickmaybe60required.MostplateingeneralAdeteriorationinsomegeopoliticaldemandis10–60mmthickandso,relationshipsisdrivingsimilar40evenwithoutextendingallthewaytoconsiderations.FollowingRussia’s150mm,therequirementsforwindinvasionofUkraine,Russiahasbeen20tendtowardsthethickerendofmillremovedfrommanysupplychains,productranges.whichhassomeimportant0101mmto200mm201mmto300mm301mmto400mmAbove400mmimplicationsforsteelasRussiaisa100mmorlessAchievingoptimalphysicallarge,low-costsupplier.Additionally,propertiesofplaterequiresacertainUkraine’sexportcapabilities–in2021,EuropeNorthAmericaChinaIndiaOtherAsiaOtherdegreeofthicknessreductionfromthecountryaccountedfornearlyhalftheslab–ideallyatleastathree-foldSource:CRU,PlantFactsreduction.Therefore,tomakea100mmplateyouneedtostartfromatleasta300mmslab.Notmany54GWEC.NETKeyMaterialsMostplatecapacityislocatedinAsia,especiallyChinareduced,inpractice,toasmallReversingmillcapacity,Mt/y,2023numberofacceptableorigins.Other8%(14.3)RenewablesareakeydemandAmericas7%(12.9)sourceoflow-emissionsteelEurope10%(19)Windispartofanypathwaytodecarbonisation.Assuch,thesector182.4hasastronginterestinusinglow-emissionsteelandhasbeenaChina52%leaderindrivingitsdevelopment.(93.8)LeadingoffshorewindprojectdeveloperandoperatorØrstedhasOtherAsia23%statedthatoverhalfitsScope3SomeOEMshave(42.2)emissionsfromconstructinganlaunchedlow-emissionoffshorewindfarmcomefromsteel;Source:CRUemissionsithascommittedtoturbinesthatusereducingtonetzeroby2040.low-emissionsteel.oftheEU’splateimportsaccordingtoUSunderIRADomesticContentstatisticsfromFastmarkets–haveBonusGuidanceareexpectedtoSomeOEMshavelaunchedlow-Thesteelindustryisworkinghardonreducedsignificantly.furtheracceleratetheprocess.emissionturbinesthatuselow-itsdecarbonisation.Resultsatscaleemissionsteel.AgoodexampleisthearelikelytotakeyearsbecauseitisButChinaisthetrueelephantintheSeveralwesterncountriesandGreenerTower,awindturbinetoweranexpensive,technologicallyroominthisarea.Chinaproducesregionshaveputinplaceasetofmadeofmoresustainablesteel,uncertainprocessthatalsodependsmorethan50%oftheworld’sformaltradedefencemeasures,launchedbySGREinApril2023.upontheconcurrentdecarbonisationreversingmillplateandistheworld’sincludinghightariffsonChineseofotherconnectedindustrieslikebiggestexporter.ManyofChina’splate.Foritspart,ChinahasshownButmoststeelintheworld,includingelectricitygenerationorhydrogenplatemillsarerelativelymodern,thatitispreparedtoacttorestrictplateusedinwind,isstillproducedproduction.Asthewindenergycapableofproducinghigh-quality,itsexportsofgalliumandviaunabatedblastfurnaces.Dataindustryisgrowingrapidly,itmaywideandthickproducts.germanium.fromCRU’sSteelCostModelshowsnotbepossibleforalldeveloperstothattheweightedaverageScope1accesslow-emissionsteelforseveralTheUSisleadingeffortstodiversifySourcingdecisionsmadeinsuchanemissionsfromtheworld’splateyearstocome.or‘de-risk’awayfromChina.Localenvironmentarecomplex.Itismillsis2.2tCO2/t.Low-emissioncontentrequirementsforsteeltobepossiblethatwhatlookslikeawidemillsthatuseelectricityorgreenWithinputfromCRUusedintowersandfoundationsintherangeofpotentialsuppliersishydrogenarecapableofproducingplatewithaScope1CO2footprintofbelow0.4tCO2/t.Buttodaytherearenotverymanyofthose.GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD55OFFSHOREBALANCEOFPLANTOffshoreBalanceofPlantFoundationssolutionsarenotpossibleduetosupplierscontinuetoexpandtheirInEurope,theexistingcapacityisnoiserestrictions.productioncapacityforfixed-bottomcapableofsupportingdemandinDifferenttypesoffoundationsareinfoundations.Accordingtoour2023–2025.Whetherdeficitswilluseforoffshorewind,asitisAsprojectscontinuetoexpandintosurvey,morethan2,200unitsareoccurafter2025dependsonacceptedthatthereisnoone-type-deeperwatersandtomoreremoteplannedtobeaddedworldwidebywhethertheplannedproductionfits-allsolution.Thedesignandlocations,floatingfoundationshave2026,ofwhich53%fromChina,33%capacitymaterialises.Assumingallstructureoffoundations,andthebeguntoemerge.fromEurope,10%fromAPACtheplannedcapacity–totalling745choiceofmaterialsusedtoconstructexcludingChinaand3%fromNorthunits–canbedeliveredby2026,them,areheavilydependentontheFixed-bottomfoundationsAmerica.supplychainconstraintsarecircumstancesofeachproject,APACdominatingthefixed-expectedtosurfacebytheendofthemainlyseabedconditions,waterbottomfoundationsupplychainChallengesinthesupplychainfordecade.depthandwindturbinesize.fixed-bottomfoundationsMorethan30manufacturersareWhenwelookatthedemandandAtpresent,twomainconceptscurrentlyproducingfixed-bottomIn2022,1,301unitsoffixed-bottomsupplysituationperfoundationtypedominatetheindustry:steelfoundationsforthewindindustry,withfoundationswereinstalledinEurope,currentproductionstructures(includingmonopilesandannualproductioncapacityof3,880worldwide.Demandisexpectedtocapacityforeithermonopilesorjackets)andconcretestructuresunitsin2023.AsiaPacificistheworld’sgrowfrom1,679unitsin2023tojacketscanonlysupportdemandup(gravity-basedfoundations).largestmanufacturingbasewith81%3,430unitsin2030,accordingtoto2025.Evenifplannedcapacityforoftheglobalmarket,followedbyGWECMarketIntelligence’slatestmonopileandjacketfoundationsSteelmonopilefoundationsstillEurope(16%),NorthAmerica(2%)projection.Givencurrentcomesonlineontime,deficitsaredominatethemarketwithnearlyandtheMiddleEast(1%).productioncapacityof3,880unitsexpectedbytheendofthedecade.70%globalmarketshareforperyearandplansforanotherprojectsalreadyinoperationasofEuropeusedtobetheworld’s2,200unitsby2026,itseemsthatNobottleneckisexpectedfortheUStheendof2022.However,jacketslargestfoundationproductionbasetheoffshorewindsectorhasin2023–2024asthecountry’sfirstarebeingusedincreasinglyinwithsuppliersprimarilyfromenoughcapacitytocovertheoffshorewindfoundationfacility,deeperwaterstogetherwithGermany,theNetherlands,growthfortherestofthisdecade.EEWAmericanOffshoreStructuresinnovativeXXLmonopiledesigns.DenmarkandBelgium.WithHowever,challengesremainif(AOS),cameintooperationearlythisJacketfoundationshavegainedoffshorewindtakingoffinAPAC,regional-levelbenchmarksaresummeratthePortofPaulsborosomemarketshareovertheyearssuppliershaveemergedintheFarapplied.marineterminalinNewJersey.andaccountedfor17%oftheglobalEast,particularlyChinaandmostmarketinstallationsbytheendofrecentlySouthKorea,ChineseWithannualproductioncapacityofTheUSlocalsupplychainislastyear.TaiwanandVietnam.fixed-bottomfoundationsclosetoexpectedtoincreaseitsannual3,000units,Chinahasenoughproductionforfixed-bottomGravity-basedfoundationsareToaccommodatethegrowthofthecapacitytosupportitsdomesticfoundationsfrom100unitsin2023topreferredforprojectswitharockyglobaloffshorewindmarket,offshorewindmarketgrowth.Infact,180unitsby2025,whenafacilityseabedandwherepilingorsuctionouroffshorewindgrowthprojectionplannedbyUSWindisexpectedtoforthismarketshowsasignificantenterservice.ThisisnotenoughtosurplusinChina.GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD57OffshoreBalanceofPlantDemandandsupplybenchmarkforfixed-bottomfoundations,2023–2030Plannedﬁxedbottomfoundationproductioncapacityupto2026(units/year)Fixedbottomfoundationproductioncapacityin2023(units/year)Europe16%(625)Europe33%India2%(100)NorthAmerica4%LatinAmerica1%(30)3,880(80)2,242LatinAmerica1%APACexcl.(15)China&India5%(180)APACexcl.China&India5%(230)China52%(1,172)China76%(2,945)Fixedbottomoffshorefoundations(units)Europe20222023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030eChina347509252551734732109713061639India6838871263141113241210115410711000APACexChina&India000020343468NORTHAMERICA271241223263229253277288345LATAM04273193294339308294270Africa&ME00000000108Total000000000130116791811241825832534287029943430Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,CWEA,Brinckmann,September2023lSufficientlPotentialbottleneckcopewiththepredicteddemandinlocalsourcingifdevelopersdecideoperation,butcurrentannualAlthoughanannualoutputof1202025–2030,however.tousejacketfoundationsfortheirproductioncapacityisonlyforjacketmonopilefoundationsisplannedintheprojects.foundationsandsuctionbuckets.regionby2026,itisstillnotenoughtoAtpresent,nojacketfoundationThismeansthatprojectsdesignedcoverthepredicteddemandinproductionisavailableintheUS.ThisAPACexcludingChinaandIndiawithmonopilefoundationshaveto2027–2030,assuminghalfofthewillrepresentanissueintermsofdoeshavefoundationfacilitiesinsourcethemfromelsewhere.projectswillusemonopilefoundations.58GWEC.NETCurrentproductioncapacityforjacketfoundationsinthisregionis130unitsperyear.Another60unitsperyearareexpectedtobeaddedby2026.Assuminghalfofthepredictedinstallationinthisregionwillusejacketfoundations,demandthroughoutthisdecadewillbeeasilycovered.InIndiaandLatinAmerica,nooffshorewindfoundationfacilitiesexistatpresent.Sincethedemandforfixed-bottomfoundationsinbothmarketsisrelativelylow,bottleneckscanbeaddressedeitherthroughimportsornewinvestment,withanaverageleadtimeoftwoyearstogetafacilitybuilt.FloatingfoundationsChinareplacedEuropeastheworld’slargestfloatingfoundationproductionbaseComparedwithfixed-bottomoffshorewind,thesizeofthefloatingwindmarketisreallysmall.Attheendof2022,only206MWoffloatingoffshorewindcapacitywasinstalledworldwide.However,followingmorethanadecadeoftesting,floatingwindhaspassedthedemonstrationstageandenteredthepre-commercialphase.GWECMarketIntelligencebelievesthatfloatingwindwillachievecommercialisationtowardstheend59OffshoreBalanceofPlantofthisdecade,withannualdemandwhichexplainswhyleadingfloatingturbinein2021,ChinaenteredtheChallengesinthesupplychainforfloatingfoundationssurpassingwindfoundationsuppliersincludingfloatingwindsectorrelativelylateforfloatingfoundations200unitsperyear.AkerSolutionsandNavantiacomecomparedwithEuropeancountries.fromthisregion.However,thedomesticfloatingCurrentglobalmanufacturingEuropeistheworld’slargestmarketfoundationsupplychainhasgrowncapacityforfloatingfoundationsisinfloatingoffshorewindinstallations,Havinginstalleditsfirstfloatingrapidlyinthepastthreeyears.221unitsperyear.Nobottleneckisexpecteduntil2030ifweretainaDemandandsupplybenchmarkforfloatingfoundations,2023–2030AlthoughthenumberoffoundationfreeflowoftheglobalwindsupplyFloatingfoundationproductioncapacityin2023(units/year)suppliersandfloatingtechnologychain.However,adeficitislikelytocompaniesactiveinChinaisstilloccurinallregionsexceptChinaifEurope25%(56)lowerthaninEurope,theirannualrestrictivetradepoliciesandlocalproductioncapacityismuchhighercontentrequirementscometoplay.Restorworld2%(4)thanthatofEuropeancompanies.BecausethefloatingfoundationAPACexcl.221Basedonourrecentsurvey,foursupplychainisimmature,suppliers–CSSCCWHI,Wison,JUTALstandardisationforexistingfloatingChina&India9%China64%andCNOOCOffshoreOilEngineeringfoundationdesignsislowandthe(142)–canproduce142unitsperyear,costisstillveryhighcompared(19)markingChinatheworld’slargestwithfixed-bottomfoundations.floatingfoundationmanufacturingGlobalcollaborationisthekeytocentre,followedbyEurope(56units),addressingsupplychainAPACexcludingChina(19units)andconstraintsandbringingdownthetheMiddleEast(4units).costofLCOEforfloatingwindatthesametime.Floatingoffshorefoundations(units)Europe20222023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030eChina71178262950130182India120254040000APACexChina000000000NorthAmerica00801132577577LATAM00110001232Africa&ME000000000000000000Total813163477101107217291Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,CWEA,LumenEnergy&Environment,September2023lSufficientlPotentialbottleneck60GWEC.NETOffshoreBalanceofPlantCablesDemandforcablesinoffshorewindapplications,2023-2030(core-km)Highvoltagecableproduction:afarmsacrossdifferentcountries,CurrentDCcriticalconstraintforoffshorewindpromotingcrossborderenergyACsharing,whichisakeycomponentofCabledemandforoffshorewindnewenergysecurityplanssuchasArrayconsistsoftwomaintypes:arraytheEU’sREPowerEUinitiative.cables,whichconnectindividualTypeturbinestogether,andexportcables,DecarbonisationandenergywhichconnectoffshoresubstationstosecuritydriverapiddemandExport50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000anonshoregridlocation.Demandforgrowth0cables,measuredincore-km,isexpectedtogrowbyanaverageofTherapidgrowthofoffshorewindSource:CRU,September202318%year-on-yearfrom2023to2030.technologieshasignitedasurgeinInvalueterms,demandisexpectedtodemandforhigh-voltagecablesthatMVandHVcabledemandforoffshorewindapplications(core-km)riseby15%year-on-yearovertheconnectwindfarmstothepowersameperiodastheindustryshiftstogrid.Thiscouldbecomea20largerandmorevaluablecabletypes.bottleneckintherolloutofoffshorewindasdemandfornewcapacity15Therearetwokeytrendsintherisesquicklywhilecablesupplyanddemandforoffshorecables.OneisdemandcentresgrowThousands10theshiftfrom33kVto66kVforarraygeographicallydistinct.cablestoaccommodatethe5growingtransmissionrequirementsChinaoflargerturbinesthatgenerate020252030morepower.TheotherkeytrendisOffshorewindcableconsumptionin2020ChinaOthertheshifttodirect-current(DC)Chinaamountedtonearly16,000technologiesasopposedtocore-kmin2021,whichrepresentedNorthAmericaEuropeAPACexcl.Chinaalternating-current(AC)cablesto76%oftotalglobaloffshorewindreduceelectricallossesduringcableconsumption.However,Source:CRU,September2023transmissionoverlongdistances,assubmarinecableconsumptionwindfarmsareincreasinglybeingcontractedsignificantlyin2022duebuiltfurtherfromshore.tofeweroffshorewindprojectsbeinginstalledafterthesubsidiesHigh-voltagedirectcurrent(HVDC)ended,fallingto7,000core-km.technologyalsoenablestheinterconnectionofoffshorewindIn2023,Chinaisexpectedtoaccountfor35%ofoffshorewindGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD61OffshoreBalanceofPlantEHVcabledemandforoffshorewindapplications(core-km)APACexcludingChinageneratesonlyaround0.1%ofUSelectricityatpresent,roughly35GW5TheAsia-PacificregionexcludingofcapacityisplannedfortheUSEastChinaisexpectedtoaccountforCoast,enoughtomeet3%ofthe43.5%ofoffshorewindcabledemandcountry’sdemandin2022.in2023.DemandforcablesinthisThousands3regionisprojectedtogrow18%perCurrentlythereisonlyoneyeartotheendofthedecade.Theoperationaloffshorewindcable2ChineseTaiwanareaandVietnamproductionplantintheUS,locatedinarethetwolargestoffshorewindSouthCarolina.Thisfacility,operated1markets.OffshorewindisakeybyNexans,isestimatedtoproducecomponentofTaiwan’sgreenroughly10%ofthecurrentdemand0Europe2025APACexcl.China2030economyvision:CRUexpects26fordomesticsubseacables.Cable2020ChinaOtherGWofoffshorewindprojectstomanufacturersareopeningplantsincomeonlinebetween2023andtheUStocapitaliseontheboomingNorthAmerica2029,with84%ofthesebeingdemandforoffshorewindcablesfixed-bottomandtherestfloating.laterthisdecade,supportedbylargeSource:CRU,September2023federalspendingundertheInflationAtCOP26,VietnammadeastrongReductionActandtheInfrastructurecabledemand.From2023totheendCurrentlythereisonlycommitmenttoachievenetzerobyInvestmentandJobsAct.ofthisdecade,cabledemandforoneoperationaloffshore2025andrecentlyincreaseditsoffshorewindapplicationsinChinawindcableproductionoffshorewindtargetfor2030to6Fast-growingdemandspursraceisforecasttogrow13%peryear.GW.MostofthecurrentprojectsintoproducesubmarinecablesThisestimatecouldturnouttobeplantintheUS.Vietnamarenearshoreintertidal,conservativeasChinahasatrackwithinacoupleofkilometresfromIn2022,onlyabout0.5%ofglobalrecordofexceedingitsinstallationshore.Forthisreason,mostsubseaenergycableproductionfacilitiestargets.cabledemandwillconsistof35kVwerecapableofproducingarraycables,withmostofitsuppliedsubmarinecables.ThesehighlyEuropeDecarbonisationgoalsandenergybyChinesecableproducers.specialisedmanufacturersinEuropesecurityneedshavepushedEuropearefullybookedwithmultiple-yearIn2023,Europeispredictedtotorampupitslong-termrenewableNorthAmericacableorderbacklogs.Additionally,accountfor27%ofglobaloffshoreenergypipeline,withrenewablesthecomplex,resource-intensivewindcabledemand.Growthisexpectedtorepresent32%oftheIn2023,NorthAmericarepresentsinstallationprocessrequiresspecialistexpectedtoaverage21%peryearEU’senergymixby2030,under4%ofglobalcabledemandforequipmentsuchascable-layingtotheendofthedecade.Withinexistinglegislation.Thisgoalisoffshorewindapplications,thoughvesselsandhighlyskilledpersonnel.Europe,theUKrepresentsone-thirdlikelytobemetaheadofschedule,thisisanticipatedtoriseto13%byThesesupplybottleneckshaveledtoofcabledemandforoffshorewindwhichhasinstigateddiscussions2030.Mostoffshorewindtargetsinprojectdelaysandrisingprojectprojects,withtheNordicsandBalticsaboutincreasingthetarget.NorthAmericaarefromtheUnitedcosts,mostnotablyinEurope.representingafurtherthird.States.Althoughoffshorewind62GWEC.NETCRUestimatesthatglobalsubmarineMV+HVandEHVsubseacablemanufacturingcapacity,cableproductioncapacityin2023is‘000core-km/y,2023approximately30,900core-km,splitbetween24,200core-kmfor18medium-voltage(MV,mainly33–3516kV)arraycablesandhigh-voltage14(HV,37.5–245kV)exportcables,and126,700core-kmforextrahigh-voltage10cables(EHV,above245kV).8Globaldemand–includingfor6EuropeChinaJapanSouthKoreaOtheroffshorewind,interconnectionand4MV+HVEHVoil&gasapplications–isforecastat2approximately18,000core-kmfor0MVandHVsubmarinecablesand6,400core-kmforEHVcables.NorthAmericaIntheory,thereisenoughcapacitytoSource:CRU,September2023Severalsubmarinecablesupportglobalsubmarinecableplantsandexpansionsdemandthisyear.However,aelectricitytransmissionandhavebeenannouncedChinesefirmwithexcesscapacitydistribution.inthepasttwoyears.maystruggletowinanoffshorewindprojectinEurope.ExcludingChina,Nevertheless,severalsubmarinenewfacilitiesinotherChineseweexpectglobalshortagesof1,400cableplantsandexpansionshaveprovincesinpreparationforlocalcore-kmforMVandHVsubmarinebeenannouncedinthepasttwooffshorewindprojects.cablesand500core-kmforEHVyears,ascablemanufacturerseyecablesin2023.theopportunitiespresentedbyrapidCRUunderstandsthatatotalof20growthinthesector.submarinecablemanufacturingTechnically,alandcableproductionplantsarecurrentlyunderlinemakingHVorEHVcablescanInChina,companiesincludingconstructioninChina,morethantheswitchtoproducingsubmarineBaoshengYOFC,FutongSumitomorestoftheworldcombined.Thiscables.However,thisinvolvesJV,FarEast,QingdaoHanheandchangesinthemanufacturingQifanhaveenteredsubmarineprocessandmaynotbefeasibleduecableproductionwithnewplantstocablemanufacturingfacilitiesinoverthepastcoupleofyears.EuropeenjoyingastrongpipelineofIncumbentplayerslikeHengtong,undergroundcableprojectsforZTTandOrientCablearebuildingGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD63couldleadtoovercapacityinChinasubseacableproductioncapacitycablesplantinGreenwichTownship,inthenextfewyears.OntheotherwithnewplantsbeingbuiltinSouthNJ,aspartoftheOuterbridgehand,ChinacouldrepresentaKoreabyLSCableatitsexistingRenewableConnectorproject.solutionforsupplyshortagessiteinDonghae,Gangwon-do,andelsewhereintheworld.TaihanatDangjinPortGodaePier.BridgingthedemandandsupplyWithagroundbreakingceremonygapthroughcollaborationEuropehasa31%shareofglobalheldthisSeptember,NKTandsubseacableproductioncapacity,WalsinLihwa–basedintheTomeetambitiousoffshorewindwhichislikelytoincreaseasfourChineseTaiwanarea–alsoplantoinstallationgoalsandacceleratethenewsubseacablemanufacturinglaunchasubseacablefactoryinenergytransition,ahigherlevelofplantsforarrayand/orexportcablesTaiwanby2027.globalcollaborationisimperative.arealreadyunderconstructionorOffshorewindcablemanufactureandplanned.InNorthAmerica,thereiscurrentlyinstallationoftenrequireanintricateonlyoneoperationalsubseacableinterplayofsuppliers,developers,IntheUK,JDRCablesisbuildingaproductionfacility,thoughtherearegovernmentsandinvestorsfromnewsubseaunitatBlyth,northeastplansfornewfacilitiestosupplyseveralcountries.CollaborativeEngland,andnewcomerXLCCisintheburgeoningdemandfromeffortscanleadtoknowledgetheprocessofsolidifyingplansfornewlyannouncedoffshorewindsharing,costoptimisationandtwounits,oneatHunterston,Scotlandprojects.Prysmian’sconstructionoftechnologyadvancement.ThesecanandanotheratPortTalbot,Wales.anHVsubseacableplantatbejeopardisedbygeopoliticalJDRisexpandingexistingfacilitiesatBraytonPoint,MassachusettsisconcernsaffectingcommercialHartlepool,England.connectedtoitsawardstotallingchoices.$900mforVineyardWind’s804ElsewhereinEurope,TKHwillbuildMWParkCityOWFandthe1.2CriticalregionsforoffshorewindanewsubseaplantnearVelsen-GWCommonwealthWindOWF,todeploymentsuchastheUSandIjmuiden,Netherlands.Expansionbecommissionedby2026andEuropeexemplifytheneedforofexistingfacilitiesisalsotaking2027,respectively.greaterlevelsofglobalexchange.placebyPrysmianatArcoFelice,TargetedoffshorewindinstallationsItalyandPikkala,Finland;NexansatHellenicCablesplanstobuildanarrayarecurrentlyoutpacingtherealitiesHalden,Norway;NKTatKarlskrona,cableplantatTradepointAtlanticinofthehighlytechnicalandcostlySwedenandCologne,Germany;BaltimoreCounty,Maryland,followingstartupofnewhigh-voltagecableHellenicCablesatSoussaki,itsawardforthe846MWSkipjackproduction.TheachievementofCorinth,GreeceandTKHatWind2OWF,tobecommissionedindecarbonisationgoalshingesonLochem,Netherlands,justtoname2026.TwomoreUScompanies,Risegreaterglobalconnectivityoftheafew.Light&PowerandDelawareRiverhigh-voltageandextrahigh-voltagePartners(DRP),are“preparedtoinvestcablesupplychain.NortheastAsiahasa13%shareofmillions”foranarrayandexportWithinputfromCRU64GWEC.NETOFFSHOREWINDENABLERSOffshoreWindEnablersOffshoreWindTurbineInstallationVessels(WTIVs)Offshorewindinstallationvesselsheavyliftvessels.InthemajorityofTurbineInstallationVessels(WTIVs)Asoffshoreturbinepowerratingsplayasignificantroleinthetimelycases,jack-upvesselsareusedfordatabase,updatedinSeptembercontinuetogrow,twomajorfactorscompletionofoffshorewindprojects.windturbineinstallationwhileheavy2023,ChinaandEuropeoperatethehaveimpactedtheavailabilityofVesselsfortheinstallationofwindliftvesselsfocusonfoundationmajorityofjack-upandheavy-liftWTIVs:theweightofnacelle,towerturbinesandfoundationsfallintwoinstallation.vesselsusedforoffshorewindandfoundation;andturbinehubcategories:jack-upvessels–turbineinstallation,followedbyAsiaheight.includingself-propelledvesselsandAccordingtoGWECMarketexcludingChina,theMiddleEastbargeswithoutpropulsion–andIntelligence’sGlobalOffshoreWindandNorthAmerica.Theweightofnacellesfor10-15MWOverviewofoffshorewindturbineinstallationvesselsin2023Overviewofoffshorewindturbineinstallationvesselsbyliftcapacityin20236056504913180512<300T300-399T400-799T800-1199T4041200-1499T1500-1999T2000-3000T>3000T70Under-construction/planned301218Inoperation206020134501340720121181230510681912131414221410142022232111105erationlannederationlannedrationnnederationlannederationlannedop.orp)Inopn.orpperpla)Inopn.orp)Inopn.orp49325639118141pe)Incon)Ino.o04uronderndercoChinaerconleEastderco(USAdercohinaa)Urope)rope)hina)hina)hina)hina)East)East)erica)erica)(EUp(Cexcl.a)Undiddst)Unck-upA)Un(M(Eulift(Euk-up(Clift(Cex.Cex.CiddleiddleJack-up(EuropeJacp(Chinp(Asiacl.Chinck-updleEa)k-uJa(US-upysiasiaMMupJackeavyJacHeav-up(Alift(Ack-up(lift((NorthAmlift(NorthAmJack-upack-uJack-usiaexJa(MidJack-HvyupackeavyJaHeaJack-eavyJup(Aack-upJHHJack-JSource:GWECMarketIntelligenceGlobalOffshoreWindTurbineInstallationVesselDatabase,September2023Source:GWECMarketIntelligenceGlobalOffshoreWindTurbineInstallationVesselDatabase,September202366GWEC.NETOffshoreWindEnablerswindturbinesrangesbetween500preparedbyH-BLIXforWindmethodology,wecalculatedthenearshorewindturbineinstallationtonnesand800tonnes,buttheEuropeandPWEAin2022,theannualWTIVsinstallationcapacityinVietnam.weightofapre-assembledtowerforaverageWTIVwindturbinewepresentinthetablebelow.a14MWturbinecanbegreaterthaninstallationefficiencyis0.5GW/v/InEurope,thecurrentWTIVsupply2,000tonnesandforanXXLyearin2021andislikelytoincreaseChallengesinthesupplychainchaincancopewithdemand,givenfoundationmorethan1,000tonnes.to1.31GW/v/yearin2030.forWTIVsthatannualoffshorewindinstallationsarerelativelyflatandunlikelytoThehubheightofaMHIVestasGWECMarketIntelligencehasusedBasedoncurrentsupplychainreachthe10GWleveluntil2026.9.5–10MWturbineisinthe110–thelowerendofWITVinstallationconditionsandmarketdynamics,weThisalsoexplainswhyEuropean115mrange;foranSGRE8MWefficiencyasareferencetoconvertexpectnobottlenecksinmeetingthevesseloperatorsareabletoreleaseturbineitis109–120m,foranSGREthenumbersofjack-upWTIVsintoglobaldemandforoffshoreWTIVstheirjack-upandheavyliftvessels10–11MWitis125–128m,foranannualinstallationcapacityinGWs,upto2026.overthenexttwoyearstosupportSGRE14MWitisgreaterthan150m,asbufferroomisneededforprojectdemandfromemergingmarketsinandfortheGEHaliadeX12-14MWcoordinationandthemaincraneWeexpectnobottlenecksAsia–mainlytheTaiwanareaandturbineitismorethan150m.upgradeforsomeexistingWTIVs.inmeetingtheglobalJapan–andtheUS.demandforoffshoreDuetothespecialisedtechnicalConsideringtherequiredmainWTIVsupto2026.Lookingatthe2027–2030supplyrequirementsintheliftcapacityofcraneliftcapacityandthehookchainsituation,GWECMarketthemaincrane–aswellasthehookheightstoinstalloffshoreturbinesFollowinganoffshorewindIntelligencedoesnotexpectWTIVheights–theavailabilityofvesselswithpowerratingslargerthan10installationrushinChinadrivenbysupplychainconstraintsinChina.WecapableofinstallingthenewMW,weassumedthatWTIVswiththefeed-in-tariffcut-offin2021,newsawin2021howquicklythecountrygenerationofoffshorewindturbinesmaincraneliftcapacitybelow1,200installationssloweddownin2022canmobilisevesselsacrosstheinthe12-18MWsizerangeistonnesarenolongerfitforandwedonotexpecttoseeworldandbuildvesselstosupportsignificantlyreduced.purpose.Additionally,weassumed2021-levelinstallations(15GW)astonishingannualgrowth.thatalltheWTIVsunderagainuntil2026.AccordingtotheoffshorewindconstructiontodaywillbedeliveredAlthoughtheaverageturbinesizevesselavailabilityreport,whichwasby2026.BasedonthisWebelievethatcurrentChineseinChinahasreached7.4MWandWTIVsupplychainavailabilityisturbineswithpowerratingsgreaterWTIVWindTurbineInstallationEfficiency20212030well-positionedtoaccommodatethethan10MWwillsoonbecometheAveragenumberofprojects/v/y1.31.1projecteddomesticoffshorewindprevailingproduct,webelievetheAverageinstallationcapacity(GW/v/y)0.501.31growthinthenearterm.AtthesamelocalindustrycanhandletheRealaverageinsatllationtime-dyas/turbine(includingloadingandtransit3.73.1time,webelievethatChineseEPCchallenge.InJune2023,Chinese&allotherprojecteffectscontractorswillcontinuetousedeveloperCTGinstalledinFujianAveragenumberofturbines/v/y6180ChineseWTIVstosupporttheworld’slargestoffshorewindAveragedaysinoperation/v/y229251turbine,Goldwind’sGW252-16MW,withitsnewlybuiltWTIV‘BaiSource:H-BLXHeTan’.GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD67OffshoreWindEnablersAsofJune2023,27offshoreWTIVsmadejack-upvesselsandsevenareCOSCO,CIMCRafflesandCMHIThisexpectedbottleneckalsomeansareunderconstructioninChinesepurpose-builtheavyliftvessels.InwonthemajorityofWTIVordersthatoffshorewindmarketsinAPACshipyards,ofwhich20aretailor-addition,localshipyardssuchasplacedinthepastthreeyearsbythatareheavilyreliantonEuropeanlargeEuropeanvesseloperators,vesselsneedtofindasolutionfortheRegionaldemandandsupplysidebenchmark,offshore,2023–2030namelyCadeler,JanDeNul,Seawayfuture.LargeoffshoreWTIVsarevery7ASA,VanOordandHavfram.expensiveandrequireaskilled18EstimatedWTIVsannualinstallationcapacity,GW/yearworkforceandspecificknowhow.16ToaccommodatethegrowingThismeansthatregionalcooperation142023demandforvesselsthatarecapableforvesselsinAPACisvitaltoensure122026eofhandlinglargeoffshorewindoffshorewinddeploymentisnot10turbineswithpowerratingsgreaterdelayed,especiallyinnewmarketsTIVs(China)excl.China)iddlEast)TIVs(USA)than12MWandhubheightsofmoresuchasIndia,thePhilippines,8ethan150m,EuropeanvesseloperatorsAustraliaandNewZealand.6startedupgradingexistingWTIVsand4Jack-upWTIVs(AsiaTIVs(M-upWplacingordersfornext-generationIntheUS,whereonlyonetailor-made2WWJackWTIVsinthepastcoupleofyears.JonesActcompliantWTIViscurrently0Jack-upHowever,basedonourlatestmarketunderconstruction,butwithanJack-upgrowthprojection,weforeseealikelyeight-monthdelay,announcedplans(Europe)shortageinEuropetowardstheendofforanotherthreeWTIVswillhavetoTIVsthisdecade,unlessinvestmentinnewbeexecutedinthenexttwoyearsif-upWWTIVsismadebefore2026/2027–theBidenAdministration’stargetofJackassumingaleadtimeofthreeyears30GWofoffshorewindby2030istofordeliveringanewWTIV.bemet.Offshoreunits(floating)NorthAmerica20222023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030eLatinAmerica0533955233535354500450045004500Europe000000001350Africa&ME2460514829166527959810808162252046526400India000000000China00002005005001000OtherAPAC5052800012000140001500015000150001500015000125917691559288426753256453050355995Total87711545017430257463082833564407554550054245Source:GWECMarketIntelligenceGlobalOffshoreWindTurbineInstallationVesselDatabase,September2023lSufficientlPotentialbottleneck68GWEC.NETOffshoreWindEnablersPortsGeographicoverviewofOperationalmarshallingportswithatrackrecordinoffshorewind–EuropemarshallingportsPortsareimportantinfrastructurefor123offshorewinddevelopment,Worldwide,therearemorethan301providingthesupportfromsitelargemarshallingportswithatrack10surveytocomponentmanufacturing,recordinoffshorewindproject2construction,operationandinstallation.Thisexcludesportsthat914decommissioning.wereusedforturbineassemblyin1186thepastandhavenotbeenveryBecauseportsareusedfordifferentactiveinrecentyears.Ofthese,147purposes,theoffshorewindindustryarelocatedinEurope,16inthe13namesthemdifferentlytoreflectAPACregionandoneintheUS.theirfunctions:marinesurveyports,4manufacturingports,marshallingCollectively,theseportscanports(stagingports),andoperationssupport25GWofoffshorewind51.PortofEsbjerg(DK)&maintenanceports.powerinstallationcapacityperyear.Morethantenlarge2.PortofRønne(DK)Asoffshorewindturbinesandmarshallingports,somepurpose-projectsizeshavebeengettingbuiltforoffshorewind,havebeen3.PortofGrenaa(DK)bigger,handlingextra-largenacellesbuiltalongtheChineseeastcoastandcomponentshasbecometocopewiththeoffshorewind4.PortofLeHavre(FR)increasinglydifficultforportinstallationrushinChina.Withfacilities,especiallyduringthemorethan16GWofannual5.PortofNantesSaint-Nazaire(FR)constructionstage.operationalportcapacityavailabletosupportoffshorewind6.SeaportEmden(DE)Specialisedequipmentandainstallations,ChinahasreplaceddedicatedlaydownareaandEuropeasthemarketleader.7.PortofRotterdam-Maasvlakte2terminal(NL)quaysidearerequiredtoliftandstorethosebigcomponentsbeforeExpansionplansforatotal2.4GW/8.Eemshaven-GroningenSeaports(NL)loadingthemontowindturbineyearhavebeenannouncedbysomeinstallationvessels(WTIVs).Theoftheexistingmarshallingports9.GreenPortHull(UK)availabilityoflargemarshallingportswithanoffshorewindtrackrecord.tosupportoffshorewindgrowthhasAdditionally,morethan50ports10.AbleSeatonPort(UK)turnedouttobeanissueinsomeworldwidehaveannouncedplanstomarkets.Forthisreason,wehavesupportoffshorewinddevelopment.11.PortofMostyn(UK)chosentofocusonmarshallingportsIfalltheannouncedplansinthisreport.12.PortofNigg(UK)13.PortOostend-REBOTerminal(BE)14.Cuxhaven(DE)Source:CWEA,Brinckmann,September2023Growingpainsforexistingportsinfrastructurematerialise,another45GWofannualoperationalportcapacityBasedontheexistingoperationalwouldbeavailableforoffshorewind.portcapacityavailablefortheGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD69OffshoreWindEnablersPortswithplanstosupportoffshorewindprojectconstruction–EuropePortswithatrackrecordinoffshorewindandplansforoffshorewind–APAC3Operationalportswithoffshorewindturbineinstallationstrackrecord1.OdensePort(DK)11152.Port-LaNouvelle(FR)1Akitaport(JP)161562PortofTaichung(TW)13128213.PortofRaahe(FI)3XiuyuPort,Putian(CN)4JiangyinPort,Fuzhou(CN)124.PortofAtlantiqueLaRochelle(FR)5ZhuhaiPort(CN)141376ZhanjiangPort(CN)175.PortofPoriMäntyluoto(FI)7YangjiangPort(CN)4148CGNLufengMarineDock(CN)315236.SeaportCherbourg(FR)9Guang'aoPort(CN)2410HuilaiPort,Jieyang(CN)11CaofeidianPort(CN)251817.CorkDockyard(IE)12YangchengPort(CN)582913LianyungangPort(CN)6791011118.PortofGalway(IE)14NantongPort(CN)15YantaiPort(CN)1019129.RosslareEuroport(IE)16GuangliPortGeneralDockPhase2(CN)81610.ShannonFoynesPort(IE)109152011.PortofGdynia(PL)7272612.PortofSwinoujscie(PL)613.SinesPort(PT)14.BilbaoPort(ES)15.Energihaven(NL)16.AbleHumberPort(UK)417.ArdersierPort(UK)Portswithplanstosupportoffshorewindprojects18.EnergiParkFife(UK)1GeelongPort(AU)11ZhanghePort(CN)2PortAnthony(AU)12RushankouPort(CN)1419.Fleetwood(UK)3PortKemla(AU)13HeavyEquipmentDockatLin'gang(CN)220.Lowestoft(UK)4PortofBellBay(AU)14ZhoushanPort(CN)5PortofHastings-Victorian15DockatHaizhuangXiangshan21.OrkneyHarbour(UK)RenewableEnergyTerminal(AU)Large-scaleWindEquipmentAssembly22.PortofBlyth(UK)6KashimaPort(JP)Park(CN)7PortofKitakyushu(JP)23.PortofCromartyFirth(UK)8MokpoNewPort(KR)9SPICQianzhouDock,JieyangPort(CN)1324.PortofInverness(UK)10SDICYangpuPort(CN)31225.PortofMethil(UK)5426.PortofSwansea(UK)27.PortTalbot(UK)28.Teesport(UK)Source:CWEA,Brinckmann,September2023Source:CWEA,Brinckmann,September2023offshorewindindustrytoday,weIntheAPACregionexcludingOnlyonepurpose-builtoffshorewillbeneededtounderpinthebelievethatChinawillhaveenoughChina,simultaneousconstructionofwindportisavailableintheUSatrolloutofoffshorewind.Accordingportinfrastructuretoaccommodateutility-scaleoffshorewindprojectspresent,locatedontheeastcoast.Ittooursurvey,morethan50domesticmarketgrowth.isexpectedforthefirsttimeinisimperativetobringnewportoffshorewindportprojectsare2023inJapan,SouthKoreaandcapacityonlinetofillthegap.currentlyinthepipelineacrosstheInEurope,whilethecurrentChineseTaiwan.Thisislikelytoworld.Intheory,thosenewportsoperationalportcapacityisstretchtheexistingportfacilitiesHowtoaddressthechallengescouldbesufficienttosupportthewell-positionedtocoverdemandbeyondtheirabilitytocoverassociatedwithportgrowthupto2030.However,$18inthenearterm(2023–2025),demandduringtheforecastinfrastructurebillionofinvestmentwillbemoreportcapacitywillbeneededperiod,unlessnewportcapacityisrequiredtobringthoseannouncedfrom2026inordertoavoidbuiltandreleasedtosupporttheAsextraportcapacityisrequiredprojectsonline–assumingacostbottlenecks.offshorewindgrowth.inallregionsexceptChina,itisof$400milliontobuildaclearthatsignificantinvestment70GWEC.NETPortswithatrackrecordinoffshorewindandplansforoffshorewind–NorthAmerica9311157628Operationalportswithoffshorewindturbineinstallationstrackrecord11PortofBalitmore-TradepointAtlantic12Portswithplanstosupportoffshorewindprojects41ArthurKillTerminal102BraytonPointCommerceCenter3BridgeportPort134NewJerseyWindPort5PortofAlbany6PortofLongBeach-PierWind7PortofNewBedford8PortofNewLondon-StatePierTerminal9PortofPaulsbo10PortofVirginia-PortsmouthMarineTerminal11SalemHarborWindTerminal12SouthBrooklynMarineTerminal13SouthQuayMarineTerminalSource:CWEA,Brinckmann,September2023Inadditiontonewinvestment,regionalcooperationinportmarshallingportwithanannualinfrastructureisalsoimportanttooperationalcapacityof1GW.supportmarketgrowth.ThisisespeciallytrueintheearlystagesofGiventhesizeofinvestmentdevelopment,wheneachmarkethasrequired,thecurrentyettoachieveasignificantscaleofmacroeconomicdifficultiesandthedeployment.three-yearleadtimetobuildonepurpose-builtoffshorewindBeforeoffshorewindportsweremarshallingport,politicalestablishedinGermany,thecommitmentisrequiredtoensuredelivery.71OffshoreWindEnablersNetherlandsandtheUK,theDanishhasonlyinstalled2.3GWofoffshoretogethertolookathowtheycanNazaire(France)andHumber(UK)offshorewindportofEsbjergplayedwindbytheendof2022.collaboratetodelivertheadditionalareworkingtogethertoseehowavitalroleinsupportingregionaloffshorewindcapacityrequired.theycansupporteachothertooffshorewindexpansion.AccordingRegionalcooperationisalsoTheportsofEsbjerg(Denmark),growoffshorewindactivity.toPortofEsbjerg,ithassofarcrucialwhenthemarkethasOostende(Belgium),GroningenCountriesfromtheAPACandothersupportedmorethan23GWofachievedmaturity.InresponsetoSeaports/Eemshavenregionscouldcertainlylearnfromoffshorewindcapacityacross59theEsbjergDeclaration,major(Netherlands),NiedersachsenPort/marketsconnectedwiththeNorthprojects–althoughDenmarkitselfEuropeanportshavecomeCuxhaven(Germany),Nantes-SaintSeainEurope.Demandandsupplysidebenchmarkforports,2023–2030Estimatedoperationalportcapacityavailablein2023(MW/year)Plannedportcapacitytosupportoffshorewind(MW/year)NorthAmerica1%(270)NorthAmerica17%(7,420)Europe31%China24%(8,000)(10,700)25,713MW44,631China64%Europe49%(22,100)(16,392)APACexcl.China4%APACexcl.China10%(1,051)2025e(4,411)233520222023e2024e02026e2027e2028e2029e2030e6527NorthAmerica0533955140003535450045004500450002884000LatinAmerica00291625746959810808162250135012000150001500015000Europe246051481559269532565030204652640017430308283356440755China505280001500015000OtherAPAC1259176955356995Total8771154504550054245Source:GWECMarketIntelligence,CWEA,Brinckmann,September2023lSufficientlPotentialbottleneck72GWEC.NETCHAPTER3:RECOMMENDATIONSTOSECURETHEWINDSUPPLYCHAINGWECECFSUPPLYCHAINREPORT202373RecommendationsThereisacritical,globalneedforSixrecommendedactionsfortheglobalwindenergysupplychainshiftingfromthecurrentfossilfuel-basedgenerationtorenewableThewindindustrymuststandardisepower,andforensuringthatlargeandindustrialisevolumesofrenewableenergyareavailabletomeetincreasedpowerAddressbasicbarrierstoSixrecommendedRegionalisationwillbeneededdemandandelectrificationlevels.windindustrygrowthinland,actionsforindustrytosupportgrowthandForthispurpose,windenergyisagridsandpermittingtoandpolicymakersresilience,whilemaintainingparticularlystrongsolutionduetoitsincreasevolumeandaglobalisedsupplychaincost-competitiveness,technicalpredictabilitymaturityandabilitytodeployThemarketmustprovideclearoffshorewherelandisnotalimitingFundamentalreformoftheandbankabledemandsignalsfactor.powermarketunderpinsfurtherwindgrowthLookingtowards2030,just7yearsfromnow,globalwinddeploymentTradepolicyshouldmustbescaledtoatleast2.75TWinbuildcompetitiveindustries,ordertodeliverthemuch-needednotpushhighercostsontoendusersenergytransitionforanetzerofuture.1ThewindindustryhasjustWhiletheindustrynowbenefitsthatisabletowithstandtheRecommendation1:Addressthisyearpassedthe1TWmarkafterfrommorematuretechnology,loweruncertaintiesofthefuturemacrobasicbarrierstowindindustry40yearsofhistory.2LCOE,greaterpublicsupportandenvironment.growthinland,gridsandmature,globaldeliverycapacity,itpermittingtoincreasevolumeThewindindustryhasbeenabletowillhavetoalmostdoubleitsInordertoensureasufficientlylargeandpredictabilityscalequicklyoverthepastfewcurrentsupplychainproductionandstabledemandforanetzerodecades,drivenbyever-growingcapacityby2030tokeepourplanetfuture,deliveredatahighlyManyoftoday’schallengestowinddemandformoreefficienttechnologyontheroadtonetzero.Achievingcompetitivecost,industryandatthelowestpossiblecost.Thishasthiswillrequirealargerwindpolicymakersmustactivelycollaboratescalingareduetopolicyandputtheindustryintoalow-marginsupplychainguidedbystrongandtoactnow.Sixkeyrecommendationssituationthatmakesitdifficulttocleardemandsignals,butalsooneforactionareoutlinedbelow:regulatorybarriersthatleadtoreinvestinfuturescale,despitewindandrenewablesnowbeingwidelyheighteneduncertaintyforprojectrecognisedascentralfornationalenergysecurityandresilience.investment.Theseincludeoverly1.IEA,NetZeroRoadmap:Aglobalpathwaytokeepthecomplexpermittingprocedures,grid1.5°Cgoalinreach-2023Update,2023.2.GWEC,GlobalWindReport,2023.74GWEC.NETbottlenecksandimpracticalpricingneededtoavoidserialdamageinmanifestinmeasuresthatoutrightsignalsatauction.Thesepolicyandthefield,allowingOEMstocapitaliseblockcurrenttradeflowsandfinancingenvironmentsarenotfitforontheirR&Dinvestmentsandtheinterruptordelaydeployment.purposeifweareona1.5°CpathwaysupplychaintouseitsequipmentforInternationalsuppliersfromanywherewindgeneratesone-fifthofthemorethanafewyearsandachievecountryshouldbeencouragedtoworld’selectricityby2030andeconomiesofscale.expandinmarketsoutsideoftheirone-thirdby2050.3homeregiontoensurethatglobalRecommendation3:learningbenefitscantransferacrossAddressingthesebarrierswillRegionalisationwillbeneededtoborders.Thisisparticularlyrequireprioritisedlong-termssupportgrowthandresilience,importantforNorth-Southlearningplanswiththeneededinvestmentwhilemaintainingaglobalisedtransfersandtoensureajustintoinfrastructure,supportandsupplychaintransition.compensation.AsmarketsmovetowardsmoreAttentiontodiversificationshouldinRecommendation2:Thewindregionaldiversifiedsupplychains,particularbepaidtogearboxes,industrymuststandardiseandindustryplayers(localorforeign)generatorsandpowerconverters,industrialiseshouldworkwithlocalauthoritiestoforwhichglobalresilienceisbuildresilientmanufacturinghubscurrentlylowandconcentrationriskThewindsectormustindustrialisewithconsiderationforwhatisinChinaishigh.Regionalisingthewithdesignsbecomingneededintermsofinvestment,miningandrefiningofcriticalrarestandardised,globalandmodular,infrastructureorregulatoryearthelementsisagreaterbasedonamassifiedandhighlyrequirementreliefinordertochallenge;itwilllikelytakespecialisedglobalindustryprovidecompetitive,regionalconsiderabletimebeforesufficientproducingnecessarycomponents.structuresforkeyrefiningandproductioncapacitiesarepermittedTheindustryisalreadycapableofmanufacturingactivities.andbuilt.supportingdifferentwindturbinebasemodels,optimisedformarketGovernmentsshouldadoptaCountriesandregionsshouldneeds,butgoingforwardthesebalancedapproachbetweenpursuemultilateralcooperationandmodelsshouldbedesignedinafosteringregionalsupplychaininterconnectiontoenableopenmoremodularandscalablesecurityandenablingcontinuedflowsofcriticalmaterials,manner.Thiswillallowtheindustryglobalinterlinkagesofthewindcomponents,servicesandtoreturntotheprofitzone,makingenergysupplychaininordertoknowledgethatcansupportafurtherinvestmentattractive.ensureavailability,flexibilityandsecureandresilientsupplychain.competitiveness.RegionswillneedThesecantaketheformofbilateralToenablethis,turbineplatformtopursuesupplydiversificationormultilateraltradingpartnershipsgrowthmustslowdowntotheextentstrategies,reshore/onshoresome(so-calledgreencorridors)withinasegmentsandgrowtheirownregionorglobally.3.IRENA,WorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook:1.5°Ccapacities.ButthisshouldnotPathway,2023.GWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD75RecommendationsRecommendation4:ThemarketThiswouldultimatelybepaidforbyincentive-basedapproachtofurtherstimulateinnovationandmustprovideclearandbankablehouseholds,commercialandcounteractinflationandprovidedomesticvaluecreation.Ifwewanttodemandsignalstoreachnetzeroindustrialconsumers,citiesandotherfinancialsupportforsupplychainincreasethevalueplacedontheconsumersofelectricity.Thisisinvestments,whiletheEU’sWindresilienceoflocalsupplychainsandCrediblebuild-outtrajectoriesintheespeciallythecaseforoffshorewind,PowerPackageoffersathebenefits/qualityofwindprojects,shapeofmarkettargetswillbecrucialwheredemandremainsmorevolatilemultidimensionaldemand-sidestrongpre-qualificationcriteriaandtounleashingsupplychaininvestment.andinfrastructuresuchasinstallationapproachtospeedingupprojectthealignmentofsupplychainactorsThesemustbestable,bankableandvesselsandportscanbeshared.deploymentandimprovingoverallwithinternationalprotocolsandmuchstrongerthantheyaretoday.ByinvestmentconditionsforwindframeworkscanbeamongthestatingcleartargetsandroadmapsTheglobalwindindustryiscommittedmanufacturinganddevelopment.measuresused.Thesemeasuresoveralonghorizonstretchingbeyondtoarules-basedtradingsystemandshouldavoidcreatingmarket2030,policymakerswillbeabletolevelplayingfieldworldwide.UnfairRecommendation6:Fundamentaldistortionsorunderminingclaritygrowwindpowerdemandasneededmarketpracticesthatresultinreformofthepowermarketandobjectivityintheprocurementthroughcommunicatedtargetsforlegitimateinjurytomarketactorsmayunderpinsfurtherwindgrowthprocess.electrification,decarbonisation,sectorwarrantinvestigation,whichcanresultcouplingandstorage,involvingtheintheimpositionoftradedefenceCurrentmeritorderpowermarketsAbetterfutureforwindisabroaderindustryinbuildingmeasures.Itisessentialtoconsideraredesignedforfuel-based,orbetterfuturefortheworldrenewablesecosystems.suchmeasureswithcaution,giventhe‘OPEX-loaded’dispatchablegloballyinterconnectednatureofthegeneration–notforrenewableWecanonlywalkthispathtowardsaRecommendation5:Tradepolicywindsupplychainandtheriskofgeneration.Investment-heavyprojectsbetterfutureifpeoplearewillingandshouldaimtobuildcompetitiveretaliatorymeasures.suchaswindneedstrongofftakeandabletoinvestinit,andifthereisindustries,notpushhighercostslong-termpricecertainty,requiringansufficientdemand-sideambition,ontoend-usersRatherthanpursuingdefensiveupdatedpowermarketdesign.policyandinvestmentsignals.Givenmechanismslikelytoenhancetraderecentmarketdevelopments,thereCollaborationandtrademustbebarriers,governmentsshouldfocusInordertoprovidethecertaintyaremanycompellingreasonsforaprotectedtofosterhealthyfutureonsupportingstrategicsegmentsofneededtoattractinvestment,westrongerdemand-sidepull:windpipelines.CostreductionthedomesticindustrytocreateanneedapowermarketreformthatdependsonsupplychaincapacityattractivemarketenvironmentthatbetteraddressestheneedsoflThecostcompetitivenessofutilisation,andisonlypossibleifensuresadequatepricingandrenewablegeneration.Theseincludegrid-connectedwindandPVpowerresourcescanbesharedacrossreturns,makescompetitivefinancelong-termoperatingmarginsbasedversusfossilgenerationissogreatregionswithcompetitivecostavailableandremovesbureaucraticonsolutionswithahighersystemthatrenewablepowernowcostspositionsandlimitedtradebarriers.barriers.Thiswillcreateasustainablevalue,forexamplethroughabetterlessthanthemarginalcostoffuelinfoundationofgrowthfortheprivateproductionprofile,ratherthansomemarkets.ContinuedfossilfuelMarketswillbenefitfrompublicsectortorapidlyrampupitsawardsbasedonstrongcompetitionpricevolatilityandmarketinvestmentinworkforceskillsandinvestmentinsupplychainandskills.forthelowestpriceperMWh.uncertaintymeanstherelativevalueinfrastructure,whileprescriptiveandofwindpowercontinuestoundueregulationagainstcross-TheIRAisagoodexampleofanThebroadersocietalbenefitsofwindstrengthen,evenastheimmediatebordertradewillsignificantlyreduceenergycouldalsobeconsideredtocostenvironmentforwindhasindustrygrowthandincreasecost.76GWEC.NETsharpened.Thereisapositiveveryexpensive,theynowcostlessbusinesscaseforeveryhourofthanusingdieselgeneratorsorfossilgenerationthatcanbebuildingnewtransmissionsystems.replaced.WindpowerisasourceofmassivelThegrowthofPVcreatestailwindscapitalinvestmentacrosstheworld.Itforwind,sinceabalancedcancreatemultipliereffectsingenerationprofileshouldmixeverysustainableemploymentopportunities,1MWhfromsolarPVwith2MWhindustrialgrowthanddevelopmentofofwindpower.4Windandsolarlocalsupplychains.Thiscaningeneratepoweratdifferenttimesofparticularenablethetransitionofday,andhavedifferentseasonalvaluechainsandlabourmarketsinoutputsandcapacityfactors,soafossilfuel-dependentmarkets.complementarybalancedmixofbothresourcesisnecessarytoAsoneofthemostinnovative,scalabledeliveragenerationprofilethatcanandcost-effectiverenewableenergymeetdemand-sideneeds.sources,theglobalwindindustryispreparedtocontinuemakinglargelEnergyflowresiliencehasandlong-terminvestmentsinbecomeahigherpriorityfortechnology,supplychainandpeople.governmentsandindividualsasTodothis,governmentsandindustrytheworldhasbecomemoremustworktogethertocreatestableuncertain.Renewablepowerpolicyenvironments,adequatepriceprovidesthisresilienceandsignalsandastrongglobalsupplygreaterindependencefromchainforwindenergy.importedfossilfuels–inaworldwheremostcountriesarenetThenetzeropathwayisnotaneasyimportersoffossilenergy.one,butitisworthalltheeffort,bothfromaqualityoflifeandeconomiclMini-gridcostshavecomedownsoperspective.Everydollarinvestedinfarthatanewvaluepropositionisclimatemitigationwillsavetheworldbecomingeconomicallyfeasible.manydollarsinadaptationcosts.WhenHybridplantswithwindandPVcanitcomestothecriticallyimportantbringpowertotheestimated745questionofclimate,themathissimple.millionpeoplethatlackaccesstoelectricitytoday.5Whilethefirst4.BCGanalysisandclientworkmicro-andoff-gridsolutionswere5.Accesstoelectricityimprovesslightlyin2023,butstillfarfromthepaceneededtomeetSDG7,accordingtotheIEA.77APPENDIX78AppendixDefinitionsandTerminologyDefinitionofregionsLatinAmerica:South,CentralAmericaandMexicoGWECusesthefollowingdefinitionsforregionsoftheAsiaPacific:EastAsia,Centralworld:Asia,SouthAsia,SoutheastAsiaandOceaniaEurope:GeographicEuropeincludingNorway,Russia,AfricaandMiddleEast:NorthSwitzerland,TurkeyandUkraineAfrica,Sub-SaharanAfrica,MiddleEastexcludingcountriesNorthAmerica:UnitedStatesinCentralAsiaandCanadaTerminologyEVElectricVehiclektKiloTonnesPPAPowerPurchaseAgreementEHVExtraHightVoltagekWhKilowattHourPrNdPraseodymiumACAlternatingCurrentFIDFinalInvestmentDecisionLCCsLowCostCountriesPVPhotovoltaicBAUBusiness-as-UsualFiTFeed-InTariffLCOELevelisedCostofEnergyPTCProductionTaxCreditC&ICommercialAndIndustrialGDPGrossDomesticProductLCRsLocalContentRequirementsREPMsRareEarthPermanentMagnetsCAGRCompoundAnnualGrowthRateGHGGreenhouseGasesMOUMemorandumofUnderstandingR&DResearchAndDevelopmentCAPEXCapitalExpenditureGWGigawattMSMediumSpeedRECsRenewableEnergyCertificatesCfDContractforDifferenceHSSEHealth,Safety,Security,AndMtMetricTonnesREERareEarthElementCO2/MVMediumVoltageROIReturnonInvestmentCO2eCarbonDioxide/EquivalentEnvironmentMWMegawattRPSRenewablesPortfolioStandardsCOPConferenceofthePartiesHVDCHigh-VoltageDirectCurrentMWhMegawattHourTbTerbiumDCDirectCurrentIEAInternationalEnergyAgencyNDCsNationallyDeterminedContributionsTWTerawattDDDirectDriveIFCInternationalFinanceCorporationNEAChina’sNationalEnergyAdministrationTWhTerawattHourDyDysprosiumIPCCIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateNPCNon-PriceCriteriaVATValueAddedTaxEEZExclusiveEconomicZoneChangeNSECNorthSeasEnergyCooperationVREVariableRenewableEnergyEIAEnvironmentalImpactAssessmentIPPIndependentPowerProducersO&MOperationAndMaintenanceWTGsWindTurbineGeneratorsEoLEndofLiftIRATheUSInflationReductionActOEMsOriginalEquipmentManufacturersWTIVsWindTurbineInstallationVesselsEPCEngineeringProcurementConstructionIRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyOPEXOperationalExpenditureESGEnvironmental,Social,andCorporateP&LProfitandLossStatementAgencyGovernanceITCInvestmentTaxCreditEUEuropeanUnionGWECBCGMISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD79GLOBALWINDENERGYCOUNCILAboutBCGBostonConsultingGroup(BCG)partnerswithleadersinbusinessandsocietyAboutGWECtotackletheirmostimportantchallengesandcapturetheirgreatestGlobalWindEnergyCouncil(GWEC)istheindustryassociationrepresentingopportunities.BCGwasthepioneerinbusinessstrategywhenitwasfoundedtheglobalwindindustrysector.GWECarticulatesthevisionforwindenergytoin1963.Today,weworkcloselywithclientstoembraceatransformationalmajorworldbodies,includingtheInternationalEnergyAgency,theapproachaimedatbenefitingallstakeholders—empoweringorganizationstoInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,theUNFCCCandotherbodies,asgrow,buildsustainablecompetitiveadvantage,anddrivepositivesocietalwellasgovernmentswhichareresponsibleforstrategies,targetsandimpact.https://www.bcg.com/implementationthereofinelectricitygenerationandsupply.GWECworkstogetherwiththeleadingrepresentativeindustryassociationsaswellastheglobalwindenergyindustrytobuildaplatformwhichcommunicatesacommonvisiontoallleadingglobaldecision-makers,policymakersandkeyopinionleaders.https://gwec.net/80GWEC.NETStrapStrapGlobalWindEnergyCouncilGLOBALWINDENERGYCOUNCILRuedeCommerce311000Brussels,BelgiumGWEC.NETT.+32490568139info@gwec.net@GWECGlobalWind@GlobalWindEnergyCouncil(GWEC)@GlobalWindEnergyCouncilwGWwEwC.gwECeFcS.UnPePtLYCHAINREPORT2023

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