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Leveraging Fossil Fuel

Capabilities for Clean

Energy Transitions

Assessment of opportunities in Oman

The IEA examines the

full spectrum

of energy issues

including oil, gas and

coal supply and

demand, renewable

energy technologies,

electricity markets,

energy efficiency,

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY

AGENCY

Leveraging Fossil Fuel Capabilities for Clean Energy Transitions Abstract

Assessment of opportunities in Oman

PAGE | 3

I EA. CC BY 4.0.

Abstract

As the global energy transition accelerates, all energy sectors will experience

significant transformations, affecting how energy is produced and consumed. This

implies a changing role of hydrocarbon fuels such as oil and natural gas. While

these fuels will continue to play a role in energy systems, notably in large energy

demand centres, all scenarios point to a gradual decline in demand for both oil

and gas. As a result, producer economies such as Oman, whose economic

development has been to a significant part enabled by a thriving oil and gas

industry, have been exploring opportunities to adapt their economic model to the

emerging energy economy we are observing.

Nevertheless, it remains important to appreciate the role producer economies play

in the global energy transition. While this transformation involves a wide range of

challenges to secure future revenues and employment opportunities for citizens,

the energy transition also holds with it a range of opportunities. Oman's assets,

infrastructure, and skills were once developed in the service of an omnipresent oil

and gas industry. Today, the objective of this study is to lay out the opportunities

of repurposing these advantages in the services in developing clean energy

supply chains in Oman, led by solar PV, wind and low-emission hydrogen where

significant economic value is expected to lie as the global economy decarbonises.

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LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYTheIEAexaminestheIEAmemberIEAassociationfullspectrumcountries:countries:ofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandAustraliaArgentinacoalsupplyandAustriaBrazildemand,renewableBelgiumChinaenergytechnologies,CanadaEgyptelectricitymarkets,CzechRepublicIndiaenergyefficiency,DenmarkIndonesiaaccesstoenergy,EstoniaKenyademandsideFinlandMoroccomanagementandFranceSenegalmuchmore.ThroughGermanySingaporeitswork,theIEAGreeceSouthAfricaadvocatespoliciesthatHungaryThailandwillenhancetheIrelandUkrainereliability,affordabilityItalyandsustainabilityofJapanenergyinitsKorea31membercountries,Lithuania13associationLuxembourgcountriesandbeyond.MexicoNetherlandsThispublicationandanyNewZealandmapincludedhereinareNorwaywithoutprejudicetothePolandstatusoforsovereigntyoverPortugalanyterritory,totheSlovakRepublicdelimitationofinternationalSpainfrontiersandboundariesandSwedentothenameofanyterritory,Switzerlandcityorarea.RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesTheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEASource:IEA.InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.orgLeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAbstractAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanAbstractAstheglobalenergytransitionaccelerates,allenergysectorswillexperiencesignificanttransformations,affectinghowenergyisproducedandconsumed.Thisimpliesachangingroleofhydrocarbonfuelssuchasoilandnaturalgas.Whilethesefuelswillcontinuetoplayaroleinenergysystems,notablyinlargeenergydemandcentres,allscenariospointtoagradualdeclineindemandforbothoilandgas.Asaresult,producereconomiessuchasOman,whoseeconomicdevelopmenthasbeentoasignificantpartenabledbyathrivingoilandgasindustry,havebeenexploringopportunitiestoadapttheireconomicmodeltotheemergingenergyeconomyweareobserving.Nevertheless,itremainsimportanttoappreciatetheroleproducereconomiesplayintheglobalenergytransition.Whilethistransformationinvolvesawiderangeofchallengestosecurefuturerevenuesandemploymentopportunitiesforcitizens,theenergytransitionalsoholdswithitarangeofopportunities.Oman'sassets,infrastructure,andskillswereoncedevelopedintheserviceofanomnipresentoilandgasindustry.Today,theobjectiveofthisstudyistolayouttheopportunitiesofrepurposingtheseadvantagesintheservicesindevelopingcleanenergysupplychainsinOman,ledbysolarPV,windandlow-emissionhydrogenwheresignificanteconomicvalueisexpectedtolieastheglobaleconomydecarbonises.PAGE3IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAcknowledgementsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanAcknowledgements,contributorsandcreditsThisstudywasdesignedandco-authoredbyAbdullahAl-AbriandNadimAbillama.OtherIEAcolleagueswhocontributedtothisworkincludeSimonBennett,JoseMiguelBermudezMenendez,ChristopheMcGlade,ElisaAsmelashandYasminaAbdelilah.Also,aspecialthankyougoestoGaiaD’Alfonso,AngelinaFloraGutierrezandGaiaGuadagninifortheirsupportindraftingandediting.AliAl-Saffar,AmirLebdiouiandPavelBilek(consultants)co-authoredthestudyandcontributedtothisworkasindependentindustrialanalysts.ThispublicationwasproducedwiththesupportoftheJapaneseMinistryofForeignAffairs(MOFA)undertheIEA’sCleanEnergyTransitionsProgramme.TheIEAwouldalsoliketothankthefollowingseniorgovernmentofficialandexpertswhoreviewedandprovidedfeedbacktothereport:FirasAlAbduwaiDirectorGeneralofRenewablesandHydrogen,MinistryofEnergyandMineralsKhalidAlGeneralManager(acting),OmanSustainabilityCenterGhammariKhalidAlHanshiSeniorEnergyRenewalAdvisor,PetroleumDevelopmentOmanAbdullahAlGasMarketingDirector,MinistryofEnergyandSayeghMineralsAlWaleedAlSeniorManager,OmanInvestmentAuthorityShukailiAhmedAlSeniorProcessTechnologist,OmanLNGHatrooshiSulaimanAlTobiIndependentConsultantMariyaAlTobiOmanSustainabilityCenterAbdullahAlHeadofTechnicalAffairs,MinistryofEnergyandShereiqiMineralsMohammedAlHeadofDecision-MakingSupportUnit,GeneralHashmiSecretariatoftheCouncilofMinistersMariyaAlTobiIndependentIndustrialAnalystSalimAlKindyCEOofMuscatEngineeringConsultancyPAGE4IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAcknowledgementsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanThanksalsototheIEACommunicationsandDigitalOffice(CDO)fortheirhelpinproducingthepublication,especiallytoJethroMullen,AstridDumond,ClaraVallois,PoeliBojorquezandAyaAbu-Shaqra.PAGE5IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanExecutivesummaryOman'soilandgasindustryholdssignificantadvantagesasthecountryacceleratesitseconomicdiversificationinwhichcleanenergycanplayacentralroleOman,aprominentproducereconomyheavilyreliantonfossilfuelsforexportearningsandgovernmentrevenue,isembarkingonaboldandstrategicmission:adualtransformationtowardsenergydiversificationandeconomicresilience.Theoverarchinggoalistoreducedependenceonfossilfuelsandchartacoursetowardsasustainableanddynamicfuture.Thisendeavourextendsbeyondenergyalone,butcertainlyrestingonthebedrockofawell-functioningandsustainableenergyecosystem.Omanpossessesauniqueopportunitytoharnessitswealthofexpertiseandproductivecapabilitiesinfossilfuelsasalaunchpadintothepromisingworldofnewenergiesandinnovativeenergypartnerships.AstrategythatbuildsonthesepotentialadvantagescouldhelpmitigatetheinherentrisksandattracttheinvestmentneededfortransitionwhilepositioningOmanasacompetitivefrontrunnerintherealmofnewenergysolutions.Thisstrategicshiftcouldalsoenablethecountrytostrategicallyweavecleanenergysupplychainsintoitseconomicfabric,capitalisingonaspectrumofdiversificationopportunitiesspanningupstream,wherelocalgoodsandservicescanfuelcleanenergytechnology,midstreamanddownstreamindustries,wherelow-emissionmanufacturingthrives.Repurposingawidespectrumofoilandgasinfrastructureandskillsispivotaltothistransformation.Omancanleverageitsstrengthsinenergyprojectdesign,chemicalandthermodynamicengineering,andsitepreparationtoconstructadistinctiveportfolioencompassingbothfossilfuelandemergingenergysectors.Keyassetswithhightransversalitypotentialincludegaspipelines(suitableforhydrogentransport)andrefineryandstoragefacilities,followedbyreservoirsforcarbonstorageandassociatedinfrastructure.Challengesremain,especiallyinadaptingexistinggaspipelinesforhydrogentransport,requiringtechnicalfinesse.Toguideworkforceredeploymentandskillingforlow-emissionindustriesandoperations,Omancandrawonglobalandlocalbestpractices.Whilere-skillingandtalentmigrationarefeasibleacrosstheoilandgasvaluechain,particularPAGE6IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmandisciplines,includinggeosciences,supplychainlogistics,refining,andchemicalengineering,demonstratehighredeploymentpotential.Acomprehensivepolicytoolkitisindispensabletobolsterlinkagedevelopment,encompassingfourcriticaldomains:along-termvisionwithsectoraltargets,innovativepoliciessupportingcleanenergysupplychainevolution,incentivesandsupportivemechanisms,andaninstitutionalframeworkfacilitatingseamlesspolicycoordination.Werefertolinkageshereastheoverlapbetweenexistinginfrastructure,assetsandskillsthatcanbetransferredtosupportcleanenergydevelopment.Theeffectivenessofthispolicytoolkitwillbethelinchpinforthesuccessoflinkagedevelopment,necessitatingcohesiveandresolutepolicycoordination.Fosteringlinkagedevelopmentandorchestratingacomprehensiveshiftfromfossilfuelstocleanenergysupplychainsdemandproactivecoordinationacrossenergy,industrial,fiscal,skillsdevelopment,andlabourmarketpolicies.Thisstrategicpolicycoordinationholdsthepotentialtocatalysetheemergenceofrobustcleanenergyindustriescharacterisedbysubstantialforwardandbackwardlinkages.Inturn,thisalignswithOman'snationalobjectiveofachievingnetzeroemissionsby2050,providingabufferagainstpotentialfluctuationsordeclinesinoilandgasexportsandtaxrevenueswhilesimultaneouslygeneratingsustainableemploymentopportunitiesintheshortandlongterm.Omanmustincorporatearegularfeedbackandreviewmechanismintoitsstrategy,inthefaceofrapidtechnologicalandmarketshifts.Thisapproachensuresagilityandadaptability,positioningthenationtoseizeevolvingopportunitiesinitsjourneytowardenergydiversification.PAGE7IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsIntroductionAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanIntroductionThetwinagendaofeconomicdiversificationandenergytransitionforproducereconomiesProducereconomiesarethoseinwhichfossilfuelsmakeupasubstantialproportionofbothexportearningsandgovernmentfiscalrevenues.Producereconomiesarecharacterisedaspro-cyclicalineconomicterms.Thismeansthatsucheconomiesarevulnerabletopricefluctuationsandmarketvolatilitiessuchasthoseseeninthe2015downturnandduringtheCovid-19pandemic.Inaddition,producereconomiesarealsosubjecttotwomorefundamentalpressures:theneedtoreducedomesticemissionsandclimatevulnerabilitiesaswellastonavigatetheireconomiesinaworldthatmaybecharacterisedquitesoonbylowerdemandforfossilfuels(andfossilfuelinfrastructure).Severalproducereconomieshavethereforestartedtolookintothetwinagendaofenergytransitionandeconomicdiversificationtoboosttheirmacroeconomicresiliencetosectoralshocksanddisruptions,toreducetheirdomesticemissions,todiversifytheirinvestmentsandpartnerships,andtoopenupnewcorridorsforemployment.However,producereconomiesdonothavetostartfromscratch,andthoughtheyhavereceivedlittlepolicyattention,opportunitiesexisttosteerexistingvaluechainsintheoilandgassectortowardsenergytransition.Takingthatperspectiveintoconsideration,severalkeyquestionsariseregardingthewaysinwhichproducereconomiescanstrategicallyembarkonalow-emissionenergyandcleanenergyeconomyagenda:Whataretheopportunitiesandchallengesforfossilfuelexportersintheproductionofcleanenergyincludinglow-emissionhydrogen?Whatkindofinfrastructure,skills,andindustrialprocessescanberepurposedfromfossilfuelextractionoperationstothecleanenergysupplychain?Howcancleanenergysectorssupportthemuch-neededprocessofeconomicdiversificationandlocalvalueaddition?Whatpolicytoolsareneededtofacilitatetheprocessofrepurposingofenergycapabilities?Bygeneratingkeyinsightsintohowtheleadingbusinessesintheoilandgassectorarerepurposingin-housecapabilitiestowardscleanenergies,thisstudyaimstoprovidethefirstextensivemappingofthedifferenttypesoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsandcleanenergysupplychains,withOman’secosysteminmind.ThisstudyalsoanalysespolicyimplicationsforthecontextofOman.PAGE8IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsIntroductionAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanOmanisaparticularlyrelevantcaseinthecontextofthetwinchallengeofeconomicdiversificationandenergytransition.Omanremainsdependentonoilandnaturalgasasasourceofexports,foreignexchangerevenues,publicrevenues,andassourceofdomesticpowergeneration.Thismultifaceteddependencyonfossilfuelsposesseveralchallenges,nottheleastofwhichisthatOmanhasalreadyasmallershareoffossilfuelresourcesrelativetootherGulfCooperationCouncil(GCC)countries,especiallyintermsofnaturalgasreserves,makingtheprospectoflowerrevenuesoverthemidtolongertermamorerealisticpredicament.OmanhasembarkedonanambitiouseconomicdiversificationagendaaspartoftheOmanVision2040.Thedesignofthisagendaisevidentlymuchbroaderthanjustenergy,butitrestsonawell-functioningenergysector.Cleanenergy,andespeciallylow-emissionfuelssuchashydrogen,representakeyopportunitytoreduceOman’srelianceonfossilfuelsasadomesticenergysourceforlocalindustry,todevelopnewexportandfiscalrevenuesinthemediumtolong-term,andtocreatenewjobopportunities.ThisstudyexploreslinkagesandrepurposingcapabilitiesbetweenfossilfuelsandcleanenergiesthatcanhaveconsiderablebusinessandpolicyimplicationsforOman.Fosteringlinkagedevelopmentandasociallyinclusiverepurposingofcapabilitiesfromfossilfuelstocleanenergysupplychainsdevelopmentrequiresamulti-dimensionalandproactivepolicyapproach,alongwithcarefullycoordinatedenergy,fiscal,industrial,skillsaswellaslabourmarketpolicies.ProducereconomiesinthefaceofglobalenergyandeconomicparadigmshiftsTheglobalenergy(andassociatedeconomic)tradeflowsareundergoingmajorshiftswhereincountriesandregionsprioritisedomesticresourceswherepossibleinanattempttoensurereliablesuppliesofenergyandtolimitexposuretovolatileinternationalmarkets.Overall,energysecurityconcernsreinforcetheriseofrenewablesandnuclear.IntheIEA’sAnnouncedPledgesScenario(APS),inwhichgovernmentsachievealloftheirnationalenergyandclimatetargetsinfullandontime,renewablesincreasemorethanfour-foldin2050comparedwith2022levels,makingup51%ofthetotalenergysuppliesworldwide.ThisincreaseisevenmoreprominentintheNetZeroby2050Scenario(NZE)whererenewablesmakeupovertwo-thirdsofthetotalenergysuppliesworldwidein2050.ThesetrendsareshowninFigure1.PAGE9IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsIntroductionAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanFigure1TotalglobalenergysupplyintheAPSandNZEScenariosTotalEnergySupplyinAPS(PJ)TotalEnergySupplyinNZE(PJ)PJ700000NuclearIEA.CCBY4.0.Renewables600000CoalNaturalgas500000Oil40000030000020000010000020222030204020502022203020402050Source:IEAanalysis,2023WEOdata.IEA.IEA.CCBY4.0.Thisgrowthinrenewablesandtoalesserextentinnuclearwilltranslatein(much)lowerglobaldemandforoil,naturalgas,andcoalinthemidtolongerterms.Thislowerdemandcanstrandassetsandseverelyimpactthefiscalstatusofproducereconomiesthroughlowerincomesasaresultoflowerexportvolumesandlowercommoditypricesaswellasgreaterburdensfromthedomesticsubsidies.Inadditiontothedirectimplicationsofthefuelstrade,industries(suchassteel)inproducereconomiescanalsobeimpactedbyclimate-relatedlegislationsandproposalsinkeyconsumermarketssuchasthoseintheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion(forexampletheCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism),whichimplyachangeinregulationsandmarketdemandtowardssustainableproducts.Becausetheabilitytoexportisacriticalfeatureofacountry’seconomicdevelopmentandprosperity,fossilfueleconomies(suchasOman)thusneedtoanticipate–andadaptto–low-emissiontraderegulationsandtheimplementationofsustainabilitystandards.Thesecollectivereasonsindicatethateconomicdiversificationstrategiesshouldentailthepromotionofastructuraltransformationtowardsmoresustainableproductionmodelsinthelongerrun,therebyreducingvulnerabilitytotheeffectsofclimatechangeaswellasmacroeconomictransitionrisks.Inthecontextofasustainablediversificationstrategy,cleanenergiesandlow-emissionfuelssuchaslow-emissionhydrogenwillbekeytoachievingthedecarbonisationofmanyhard-to-abatesectors,andthesefeaturesprominentlyinallfutureenergytransitionsprojections.PAGE10LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsThevalueofrepurposingcapabilitiesAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanforproducereconomiesThevalueofrepurposingcapabilitiesforproducereconomiesTheprocessoflinkagedevelopmentoftenunderpinssuccessfuldiversificationstrategies.Indeed,throughouthistory,nations,firmsandclustershavemaintainedtheircompetitiveedgebyrepurposingtheirexistingcapabilitiestowardsnewactivities.Asshownbyglobalexperiences,theabilitytorepurposetransversalcapabilitiesfromonesectortoanothergeneratesconsiderablebenefits,includingmacroeconomicresiliencetosectoralshocksanddisruptions,diversifiedpoliticalpartnerships,andnewavenuesofemploymentopportunities.Forinstance,Equinoriscapitalisingonitsresourceandexpertiseto(1)continueproducingoilandgasbutinadifferentiatedway(i.e.,throughcarboncapture,utilisationandstorageorCCUSasinthecaseoftheSleipnerandSnøhvitfieldsintheNorthSea),(2)increaseoperationalexcellencethroughefficiencyandelectrification,and(3)expandtotheworldofnewenergies.AnotherexampleisØrsted,previouslyknownasDanishOilandNaturalGas(DONG)Energy,whichisaggressivelypushingtowardsthedevelopmentofrenewableenergysources–and,ultimately,divestingawayfromoilandgasoperations.Understandinghowtoleverageproductivecapabilitiesinthefossilfuelsectorbearsconsiderableimplicationsforproducereconomies,whicharehighlyvulnerabletotransitionrisks.Forthosecountries,therepurposingagendaisessentiallyapathwaytocatch-upinsectorscentraltothegreeneconomy,therebyseizingemerginggreenwindowsofopportunity1.Atthecorporatelevel,severaloilandgascompanieshavealreadystartedtore-evaluatetheirstrategicresponsestotheglobaldecarbonisationagenda,bothtoimprovetheirfinancialresilienceandtorepositiontotakeadvantageofnewopportunitiesarisingoutofthelow-emissioneconomy.Anumberofthosecompaniesarereorganisingasintegratedenergyplayers,whichanimpactonrevenuestreams,capitalandresourceallocationwhiletheircurrentdividendstreamsandmarketvaluationsstillrelyontheiroilandgasbusinesses.However,thereisacleardivisionbetweenEuropeanandUS-basedcompanieswithregardstotheirapproachtorenewableenergy.ThelargeEuropeancompaniesaregenerallyexpandingbeyondproductionoffossilfuels,investinginrenewable1Mathews,2018;Lee,2019;YapandTruffer,2019;Lemaetal.2021.IEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE11LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsThevalueofrepurposingcapabilitiesAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanforproducereconomiestechnologies,andmovingasaresultintonewbusinessareassuchaselectricity.US-basedcompaniesarelargelymaintainingaprofileasprovidersofliquidsandgases,incorporatingarisingshareoflow-emissionfuels.Theexpansionofcleanenergyoperationsbyoilandgascompaniesalsostemsfromanidentificationthattheyarebestsuitedtocompeteinsomesegmentsoflow-emissionenergysupplychains2.Oilandgascompanieshavecapabilitiesthatmaybevaluableforpartsofanewlow-emissionenergysystem,whichcanalsoofferinterestingreturnsincomparisonwiththeirconventionalbusinesses.3Forinstance,formanyoilandgascompaniesoperating,CCUSwhenapplicableandscalable,representsanaturalextensionofcorecapabilitiessuchasmanagingreservoirsandpipelines.Atthecountrylevel,arepurposingagendaalsoentailsadoptingadifferentapproachtowardsenergytransition,notonlybasedoncleanenergydeploymentbutalsoonlinkingenergytransitionwithlocalindustrialdevelopment.Thisholisticapproachwillhelpcountriesintegratelow-emissionvaluechainsintothebroadereconomicdiversificationagenda.Forinstance,withtherightpolicytools,thecreationofarobustlow-emissionhydrogenproductioncapacitycangeneratesignificantforwardandbackwardlinkages,improvedcostenvironmentalcompetitivenessindownstreamsectors,reduceddomesticgasconsumption(therebyfreeingupthoseresourcesforexportsininternationalmarketswithahigherprofitmarginatcurrentprices),andopportunitiesforindustrialdevelopmentmorebroadly.Suchstrategiesarehighlycontextspecificandshouldbetailoredtothenationaleconomic,socialandpoliticalcontext,whiletakingintoaccountpre-existingcapabilities.However,despitecompaniesinitiatinginternalstrategiestotransitionandrepurposetheiroperations,thereisalackofcomprehensivestudiesacrossmultiplefirmsthatinvestigatetheinterrelationshipsbetweenthefossilfuelandcleanenergyindustries.Thisknowledgegapextendstothenationallevelaswell,despitethesubstantialmacroeconomicimplicationsforlong-termsustainability.Producereconomiesneedtoembraceamoreholisticapproachtofosteringlinkagesthatgoesbeyondmerelyrepurposingcapital.Itshouldencompassawiderarrayofproductivecapabilities,includinginfrastructure,expertise,skills,technology,andindustrialprocesses.2Moredetailsonthiscanbefoundfurtheroninthesurveysunderpinningthisstudy,whereinthesurveyedoilandgasmajorsIEA.CCBY4.0.identifiedsignificantlinkageswithvariouslowemissionenergysources.3Ibid.PAGE12LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsOverviewofthecaseofOmanAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanOverviewofthecaseofOmanTradeandenergylandscapes:MultifaceteddependenciesandambitionsOmanisdependentonoilandnaturalgasasasourceofexports,foreignexchangerevenues,publicrevenues,andassourceofdomesticpowergeneration.Thismultilayereddependencyonfossilfuelsposesseveralchallenges,butOmanhasembarkedonanambitiousenergytransitionagendaaspartoftheOmanVision2040.Althoughoilandnaturalgasstillmakeupthemajorityshareoftotalenergysupplies,plansareunderwaytoincreasetheroll-outofrenewabletechnologies.WhileOmanstilldoesnotexhibitasignificantmanufacturingsectorforrenewableenergyvaluechains(solarphotovoltaic,solarconcentratingsolarpowerorwind),plansandinitiativesdoexisttoincreasetheshareoflocalisation.ThefollowingsectioncoverstheOmanieconomyandtrade,thecountry’senergyprofileaswellasthecurrentstateofthemanufacturingsector.Economic,trade,andenergyprofileOmanisamajoroilandgasproducerandexporter.In2020,itwasthe19thlargestproducerofoilbydailybarrelproduction(1.1%ofglobalproduction)andthe20thlargestproducerofnaturalgasbycubicfeet(1.0%ofglobalproduction),withfurtherexplorationworkongoingtofindnewreserves.Oman’sgovernmentcurrentlyderivesroughly70%ofitsannualrevenuefromtheoilandgassector,exposingthegovernmenttosignificantvolatilityduetocommoditypriceswings.OilandnaturalgasmakeupthemajorityshareofOman’stotalenergysupplies(TES),asshowninFigure2,withrenewablescontributinglessthan1%in2020.Oilproducts,naturalgasandelectricitymakeupthetotalfinalconsumption(TFC)totalling22Mtoein2020.Industry,transport,commercialandpublicservicesaccountfor66%oftheTFC.PAGE13IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsOverviewofthecaseofOmanAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanFigure2Oman’senergybalance,2019ImportsExportsCrudeoilOilproductsExportsTransportInternationalshippingResidentialEnergyindustryownuseIndustryProductionNon-energyuseOilrefineriesCommercial&publicservicesDistributionlossesPowerplantsRenewablesNaturalgasExportsSource:IEAanalysisanddata(2022)Theoilandgas,chemicalandmetalindustriesaccountedforalmost90%ofallexportrevenuesin2019.Whilerevenuesfromfossilfuelandextractivesectorproductexportshaveincreasedinabsolutevalueinthelasttwodecades,therehasbeensomeinitialdiversificationintoothersectors,includingmanufacturedproductswhichcontributedtoincreasingtherelativenon-hydrocarbonshareofexports.PAGE14IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsOverviewofthecaseofOmanAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanFigure3Compositionofexportsin2000(left)versus2019(right)IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:ObservatoryofEconomicComplexity(OEC),https://oec.world/en/profile/country/omn.Whilein2000Omanmostlyexportedcrudeoil,theproportionofvalue-addedproductsandrefinedpetroleumincreasedsubstantially,owingtotheadditionofrefiningcapacityandactualthroughputquantitiesinthepasttwodecades.Nevertheless,theexportbasketisstillveryheavilydependentontheproductionofthreekeysectors(minerals,chemicalsandmetalproducts)whichhaveneverthelessboostedexportrevenuessubstantiallyfromonlyroughlyUSD10billionin2000toclosertoUSD40billionin2019.DomesticenergysectorThetotalfinalenergyconsumptionofOmanhasgrownrapidlysincetheearly1990sasthecountryindustrialisedandtheeconomygrew.Industryaccountedforthelargestshareofenergyconsumptionbetween1990and2019,followedbythetransportationsector.Thelargestincreaseintheshareoftotalconsumptionwashoweverinterestinglyfoundinthecommercialandpublicservicessector,whichbecamethelargestconsumerby2019.PAGE15IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsOverviewofthecaseofOmanAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanFigure4TotalfinalconsumptionbysectorinOmanandotherregions,202135%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%TransportResidentialCommercialandFishingFinalNon-energyuseIndustrypublicservicesAgriculture/forestryconsumptionnotelsewherespecifiedOmanWorldMiddleEastGCC.IEA.CCBY4.0.Comparingthistoglobal,MiddleEastandGCCbenchmarks,Oman’stotalfinalconsumptionisslightlylowerinindustry,andconsiderablylowerbothinthetransportandresidentialsectors.Interestingly,thecommercialandpublicservicessectorisroughlyfourtimeshigherthanforallotherbenchmarkedregions.Whileoilproductsaccountedforover75%oftotalfinalconsumptionin1995,thisnumberdroppedtoroughly32%by2019.Atthesametime,electricityaccountedforonly12%,withnaturalgasrepresentingover50%ofTFCbetween2010and2019.Furtherelectrificationplansaretosomeextentdrivenbytheplanstorolloutlargervariablerenewableenergycapacity.Whencomparingthiswithglobal,MiddleEastandGCCbenchmarks,Oman’sTFCishighlydependentonnaturalgas,withoilproductsaccountingforamuchlowersharethaninotherregions.PAGE16IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsOverviewofthecaseofOmanAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanFigure5TotalfinalconsumptionbysourceinOman,20211000000TJ800000IEA.CCBY4.0.60000040000020000001995200020052010201520201990ElectricityOilproductsNaturalgasIEA.IEA.CCBY4.0.AssessmentofexistingindustrialcapabilitiesintheenergysectorinOmanInordertoidentifyrelevantopportunitiesandchallengesintherelationwiththedevelopmentofdomesticmanufacturingcapacitiesforlow-emissionindustries,itisimperativetofurtherassessthecurrentstateofthemanufacturingsectorandrelevantactivitiesinthecountry;itisalsoimportanttotakeintoaccountthebroadercontextinwhichthosemanufacturingactivitiestakeplace.PetroleumsectorAsshowninthetradeandenergysections,alargepartofexistingmanufacturingcapabilitiesisfoundinthepetroleumsector.Activitiesaretightlylinkedtodownstreampetrochemicals,whichaccountforthelargestshareamongmanufacturingsub-sectorswhenthecontributiontototalmanufacturingvalueadded(MVA)isconsidered.ThisisshowninFigure6.PAGE17LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsOverviewofthecaseofOmanAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanFigure6CompositionofOman’smanufacturingsector,asof2016(%MVA)Source:OmanMinistryofCommerceandInvestment(MOCI),IndustrialStatisticalSurvey(2016).IEA.CCBY4.0.SeveraloilandgascompaniesarepresentintheupstreamsegmentsoftheOmanioilandgasspace,withthestate-ownedPetroleumDevelopmentOman(PDO)beingthemostsignificant,followedbytheUSOccidentalPetroleum.Severaloftheotheroilmajorsarealsopresentwithvaryinglevelsofoperationsinthecountry.Thedownstreamrefiningandpetrochemicalsectorsarestillbeingdeveloped,withseveralsignificantinvestmentsinatvariousstagesofdevelopment.TheseincludetherecentlycompletedSoharRefineryImprovementProjectandtheUSD$7billionOQ8,thelargestinvestmentprojectinthehistoryofOman.Oman’soilandgassectorisservicedbyavarietyofdomestic,regional,andinternationalsuppliersacrosstheentirevaluechainofoperations.Whilethetotalnumberofsuppliersacrossthevariouscategoriesisdifficulttoassess,alargenumberofcompaniesreliesontheoilandgassectortodeveloptheirbusiness,including:Oilfieldservices&equipmentcompanies(OFSE)OilfieldequipmentsuppliersDrillingcontractorsValveandpipecompanies(andequipmentmanufacturersorimportersmorebroadly)EngineeringdesigncompaniesProjectsandconstructioncompaniesOperationsandmaintenancecompaniesPAGE18LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsOverviewofthecaseofOmanAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanTransportandlogisticscompaniesHealth,safety,andenvironmentcompaniesServicescompanies(includingcatering,uniformsetc)Thesizeofthesector,coupledwiththetraditionalfocusalmostsolelyonthedominantfossilfuelindustry,makestheassessmentofpossiblelinkagesandrepurposingevermoretimely.OthermanufacturingsectorsDespitethedominanceofthefossilfuelsectorintheeconomy,othernon-petroleummanufacturingactivitiesdoexist.Givenverylowenergycosts,OmanboaststheimportantSoharaluminiumsmelter,withasignificantcapacityof375000tonnesperyear.Crucially,Omanalreadyproducessteelandfertiliser,bothofwhichhavehighpotentialforrepurposingtouselow-emissionhydrogenasaninput.InDecember2022,announcementsweremadefortheconstructionofagreensteelproductionfacilityinoneofthecountry’sspecialeconomiczones.Nonetheless,productionfacilitiesalsoalreadyexistforproductswithhigheradded-valueproducts,suchascablesandwires,usedforbothdomesticandexportmarkets.Additionally,severaladditionaldownstreammetalandsteelproductsaremanufactured,althoughthelevelofsophisticationcanstillbeimproved.Severalfacilitiesalsoexistinthecountryandspecialiseintheproductionofvarioustypesoffertilisers,withseveraloftheannouncedlow-emissionhydrogenplansalsoemphasisingtheutilisationofhydrogentomakeby-products(e.g.,ammonia).RenewableenergysectorOmanhasahighpotentialforlarge-scaledeploymentofrenewableenergycapacity,notablyintermsofonshoresolarandoffshorewind.Whilerenewablescurrentlyaccountforanegligiblefractionoftotalenergysupply,plansareinplacetorapidlyscaleupcapacitytoensurethatrenewableenergysources(RES)contributetoatleast20%oftotalelectricitygenerationby2027.Itishoweverworthnotingthatgiventhedominanceofnaturalgasandoilproductswithinconsumptioncomparedtoelectricity,thiswouldstillonlyaccountforarelativelyminorshareoftotalenergysupply.ThecurrentlyplannedandapprovedprojectsarelistedinTable1below.PAGE19IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsOverviewofthecaseofOmanAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanTable1RecentandprojectedrenewableenergyprojectsinOmanNameofprojectSystemTechnologyCapacityStatusMiraahSolar-Solarthermal330MWtThermalProjectOnlinein2018DhofarIWindDPSforEOR50MWProjectMISWind125MWOnlinein2019AminSolarMIS500MWIbriIISolarMISSolar100MWOnlinein2020LiwaSolarprojectMISSolar500MWInauguratedinJanuary2022SolarEstimatedoperationin2023ManahISolarMIS500MWSolarEstimatedoperationinQ1ManahIISolarMIS2025SolarMISSolarIPPEstimatedoperationinQ220252025Solar500MWEstimatedoperationinQ12026JalaanBaniBuAliMISWind100MWEstimatedoperationinQ12026DuqmIWindIPPAdDuqmWind200MWEstimatedoperationinQ1PowerSystem2026(RuralAreasElectricityCompany)DhofarIIWindDPSWind100MWEstimatedoperationin2026ProjectRasMadrakahAdDuqmWind200MWEstimatedoperationin2027WindIPPPowerSystem(RuralAreasElectricityCompany)MISSolarIPPAlWustaSolar500MWEstimatedoperationin20272027GovernorateNote:EOR=enhancedoilrecovery;MWt=megawattthermal;MW=megawatt;MIS=MainInterconnectedSystem;DPS=DhofarPowerSystem.Source:IEA(2023),RenewableHydrogenfromOman.Alloftheseprojectsareexpectedtocontribute3956MWofinstalledREScapacityby2027.Giventhatnon-RESinstalledcapacityin2020was12189MWandassumingthiscapacityremainedunchanged,RESwouldconstituteroughly32%oftheinstalledcapacity.Atthesametime,thereispotentialtoachieveefficiencygainsinanumberofcurrentinstallations.ThereisawarenessofthatandtheOmanigovernmentmadeenergyefficiencyakeypriorityforthecomingdecade.PAGE20IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsOverviewofthecaseofOmanAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanHydrogensectorThedevelopmentofagloballow-emissionhydrogenmarketcanrepresentakeyopportunityforfossilfuelexporters.TheIEAestimatesthatlow-emissionhydrogenproductionfromwaterelectrolysisorfossilfuelswithCCUScouldrisefromlessthan1Mtin2021to37Mtby2030andexportsareexpectedtoreach16Mtperyearby2030.Omanhasalreadytakenstepstowardslow-emissionhydrogendevelopment,notablywiththeestablishmentoftheNationalHydrogenAlliance(Hy-Fly)andHydrogenOman(HYDROM).Hy-Flyisanationalallianceaimingtosupportthedevelopmentofahydrogenecosystemandsupplychainthatbringstogether15institutionsfromthepublicandprivatesectors,includinggovernmentagencies,oilandgasoperators,educationalandresearchinstitutions,aswellasports.HYDROMisacentralandindependententitywithamandatetoorchestratethehydrogensector,delineatinggovernment-ownedlandareas,structuringassociatedlarge-scalerenewablehydrogenprojects,managingtheprocessfortheirallocationtodevelopers,overseeingtheirexecutionandfacilitatingthedevelopmentofsharedinfrastructureaspartofaconnectedecosystem.Omanhasrecentlyannouncedthesigningofthreeagreementsfortheproductionofrenewablehydrogenfromaround960km2oflandinAlWustaandDofargovernorates.Theseagreementswillhavearound7to9yearsforprojectdevelopmentandconstructionand40yearsforoperation.Theseprojectsareexpectedtoproduceanexcessof11GWofrenewablepowerandareexpectedtogeneratearoundUSD20billionoftotalinvestmentsin9years.Theannouncementalsoincorporatedinformationontheprojectdevelopers’countriesoforiginthatincludeDenmark,Kuwait,Singapore,France,SouthKorea,andBelgium.Besidesexports,opportunitiesshouldbeassessedforusinglow-emissionOmanihydrogeninavarietyofhard-to-abateindustries,includingthesteelandfertiliserssectors,wheretechnologicalretrofittingandadaptationcouldbeusedtoallowforhydrogenasaninput.LocalcontentpolicylandscapeOmanadoptedalocalcontentpolicytofosterthedomesticworkforce’scapabilityandstimulateprivate-sectordevelopment.The“in-countryvalue”(ICV)isdefinedasthe“totalvaluespentin-countrythatcanbenefitbusinessdevelopment,contributetothehumancapacitydevelopmentandstimulateproductivityintheOmanieconomy”4.TheconceptofICVandtherelatedstrategyfortheoilandgas4AlShezawi,H.&Khan,F.(2018).In-countryvalue(Icv)–entrepreneurialopportunitiesinthecompaniesofOman.InternationalJournalofManagement,Innovation&EntrepreneurialResearch,4,1,25–41;MinistryofOilandGas(2018).PAGE21IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsOverviewofthecaseofOmanAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanindustrywereintroducedin2013toreduceimportsandtocreatejobs.SignificanteffortswerealsomadetospurtheinvolvementofOmanisintheprivatesectorthroughseveralprogrammesandinitiatives.Whilenon-petroleumactivitiesinthecountrynowaccountforaround60percentofGDP,manyoftheseremaincloselytiedtotheoilandgassector,withamyriadofnon-petroleumserviceprovidersstillmainlyservicingtheoilandgassector.Akeychallengemovingforwardwillbetoensureadequatesupportfortherepurposingofsomeoftheseactivitiestowardssupportingbroader,non-petroleumbasedeconomicandenergymixdiversification.WhileOmanhassetambitiousgoalsforthedeploymentofrenewableenergyandlow-emissionhydrogen,thevaluechainfocusesmostlyontheinstallation,operationsandmaintenancestages,withverylittlemanufacturingtakingplaceinthecountry.Omaniscurrentlyanimporterofallkeytechnologiesneededforitslow-emissionambitionswhichincludesphotovoltaiccellsandwindturbines.Thesolarsector,whichismoredevelopedgivenitssignificantpotentialandoutlook,featuresavarietyofdomesticinvolvementincludingserviceprovision.Mostlocalfirmsareactiveintheinstallation(e.g.,mountingstructures,inverters,switchgears)andtheprovisionofcableswhichcompaniessuchasOmanCablesandNUHASOmanactiveonthemarket.Othercompaniesarealsointegratingmorethanoneserviceswhich,ontopofinstallation,includeoperationandmaintenance.CompaniessuchasEIREC,Nafath,Tandeedh,HussamTechnologyCompanyareactiveonthismarket.Previoussurveysdemonstratethatmanyofthecompaniesoperatinginthesolarsectorarepresentinmorethanonesegment,includingenergyperformancecontracting(EPC),sitepreparationandinstallation,construction,aswellascommissioningandoperations,butveryfewmanufactureorassemblesolarequipment.Whilethesectorisstillatanearlystageandarelativelysmallnumberofplayersispresentinthespace,opportunitiescanexistforcompaniestoimportandsupplyspecificcomponentsandproductsifgrowthinthesectorismaintained.PAGE22IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsandcleanenergysupplychainsMarketpositioningandrepurposingplansforinternationaloilandgasmajorsandserviceproviders,andoperatorsandserviceprovidersinOmanStructuredsurveysatthefirmlevelwereusedtoacquireinsightsintothemarketpositioningandrepurposingplansinrelationwithfortheproductivecapabilitiesfortheinternationaloilandgasmajorsandserviceproviders’providerproductivecapabilities.ThesameapproachwasadoptedforoperatorsandserviceprovidersinOman.Thesesurveyswereconductedintwoconsecutivephases:phase1targetedtheinternationalplayers,followedbyphase2whichtargetedthelocalplayersinOman.Intotal,16firmsrespondedtothesurvey.Thequalityofthedatareceivedfromthequestionnairessenttocompaniesvariedintermsofquality,relevanceandthelevelofdetailprovided,butallowsforinterestinginsightsintohowtheoilandgassectorconceptualisestransitionpathwaystoagreenereconomyaswellasthedifferentstagesandmaturityoftheprocess.InternationaloilandgasmajorsandservicesprovidersFiveresponseswerereceivedfromthetargetoilandgascompanies.Whilethesampleissmallandstatisticalanalysiscannotbeapplied,significantdiversityexistsacrossthecompaniessurveyed.Thesedifferencesmainlylieinthepositioningofthesecompaniesalongtheoilandgasvaluechainrevealslightlydivergentplanswithregardstothedevelopmentoftheirlow-emissiondivisions.Allfivesurveyedcompaniesarealreadytransitioningorarelookingtomoveintothelow-emissionspace,albeittodifferingextentsandwithdifferinggoals.Allfivecompanieshaveannouncedtheirlow-emissionstrategieswithinthelastsixyears,withallfiveeitherupdatingorsubstantiallyincreasingambitionsbetween2020and2022.Somecompanieshavebeenengagedinlower-emissionsourcesfordecadesbuthaveonlyrecentlyformalisedtheirstrategies.PAGE23IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsTable2belowprovidesasummaryofthekeyareasthatthefivecompaniesareprioritisingintheirlow-emissionstrategies.Table2Generalsurveyresultssummarytable:InternationaloilandgasfirmsSource:IEA-ledsurvey(2022).IEA.CCBY4.0.Eachoftheoilandgasmajorslistedtheirexistingcapabilities,experience,andassetsasaprimaryreasonfortheirinterestinenteringandbecomingmarketleadersinthehydrogensegment.Allofthemalsoidentifiedhydrogenasamajorareaoffocus,albeitwithvaryinglevelsofreadiness.Whiletwofirmsarelookingtopushaheadintherenewablehydrogensegment,threeothersenvisiondevelopingtheirfossil-basedhydrogeninthemid-to-longterm,whilesomenotedthattheywouldliketomoveintolow-emissionhydrogeninthelongtermaswell,althoughsomesmallerprojectsalreadyexist.PAGE24LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsOutofthesurveyedcompanies,onlytwohaveestablishednewcompanystructuresfortheirlow-emissiondivisions,withtheremainingthreesettingupseparatedivisionswithintheoriginalcompanystructures.Table3Generalsurveyresultssummarytable:Keylow-emissionareasoffocusEnergyEnergyEnergyEnergyEnergyCompany1Company2Company3Company4Company5Low-emissionLow-emission&Low-emissionH2Low-emission&Low-emission&renewableH2H2WindrenewableH2renewableH2SolarWindWindCCUSSolarSolarBatterystorageGeoenergyandgeothermalBioenergyBioenergyBioenergy(biofuels&(biofuels&biogas)biogas)EVChargingEVChargingCCUSCCUSSource:IEA-ledsurvey(2022).Intermsofexpectedcapitalexpenditure(CAPEX)onlow-emissiondivisions,thereisawiderangeofresults.Somecompanieshavehighgoals,withfiguresashighas50%by2030.Additionalinformationprovidedbyoneoftherespondentshighlightedthatcurrentlytherevenuesplitbetweentheiroilandgasandlow-emissiondivisionsisroughly95%-5%andthecurrentinvestmentsplitis90%-10%butthisisduetorampuprapidlyinfavourofcleanenergyinvestments.ThesedevelopmentsareshowninTable4.Table4CapitalExpenditure(CAPEX)onlow-emissioninvestmentInvestmentCompany1Company2Company3Company4Company5Horizon40%30%N/A25-30%15%(By2025(25%for50%2027)N/ARESandelectricity&5%fornewmolecules:biofuels,H2)203050%Source:IEA-ledsurvey(2022).PAGE25IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsLocaloilandgasoperatorsAtotaloffiveresponsesfromcompaniesworkinginOmanwerereceived,coveringabroadrangeofsegmentsandsectors.Ofthefivecompaniessurveyed,anddespitedifferencesintheirstageinthevaluechain,operationsandcorebusinessmodels,fournotedsomesortoffocusonrenewableenergytechnologies.Oneoperatormentionedthattheirstrategywasstillunderboarddiscussion,butthatcertainlow-emissionenergieswouldfeatureinfutureprojects.Twocompaniesdisclosedtheshareofspendonrenewabletechnologies,albeitatlowlevels(5-15%and3-4%by2023respectively)althoughthereisexpectationofvariance.Acrossfirms,solarenergyisakeytargetsector.However,somefirmshavealsooutlinedotherkeyfocussectors,suchaswindenergy,CCUS,andhydrogenproduction.ThesefindingsaresummarisedinTable5.Table5Generalsurveyresultssummarytable:OperatorsinOmanSource:IEA-ledsurvey(2022).IEA.CCBY4.0.Hydrogenfeaturedinthestrategiesoffourofthefivesurveyedcompanies.Thistooktheformofeitherbecominghydrogenproducersorutilisinghydrogenintheirprocesses.Foroneoperatorcurrentlyproducingfossil-basedhydrogen,plansexisttoswitchapartofthistolow-emissionhydrogen,whenmarketconditionsareright,andcostsdecrease.AllorganisationshoweversaidthattheywerePAGE26LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsconsideringonlyfossil-basedhydrogen,withrenewables-basedhydrogenonlyenvisagedinthelong-term.OneorganisationmentioneditwaswellpositionedtoproducerenewablehydrogenandhydrogenwithCCUS,capitalisingonitsexperienceandtrackrecordofrenewableprojects.Outoftherespondents,onlyonenotedthattheycreatedanewsubsidiaryseparatefromthegroup’soilandgasbusiness,butthiswasdoneatthecorporateandnotatbusinesslevels.Otheroperatorsnotedtheneedforseparatebusinessunitstocovernewprojects.LocaloilandgasserviceprovidersAtotalofsixresponseswerereceivedfromlocalOmanisuppliersservicingtheoilandgasindustry,withwidevarianceacrosstheservicestheyprovide.Thebreadthoffocusandexpertiseacrossthesupplychainyieldedvaluableresults,witharelativelyhighqualityofresponses.Additionalresponseswouldbeusefulforfurtherresearch,especiallyfromthelocalengineeringconsultanciesandOFSEcompanies.Allrespondentsmentionedthatthescopeoftheirservicessuchastraining,consultingoroperations,hadbeenwidenedtoincludecleanenergyprojects,withonlyonecompanymentioningithadnotreceivedrequestsfornewservicesinOman–thoughitstilltheymentioneditworkedontheseprojectsinothergeographicallocations.FiveoutofsixrespondentshadsomeoperationsorprojectsoutsideofOman,withmostalsoperformingservicesinthewiderGulfCooperationCouncil(GCC)region.Tworespondentsspecificallymentionedseekinginternationalpartnershipsandtryingtoutiliseinternationalexpertiseandbestpractices,withoneemphasisingthattheOmanigovernmentcoulddomoretofostertheseinternationalalliances.AsummaryoftheseresultsispresentedinTable6.PAGE27IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsTable6Generalsurveyresultssummarytable–SuppliersinOmanSource:IEA-ledsurvey(2022).IEA.CCBY4.0.Theoilandgassectorstilldominatesthebusinessportfolioofmostcompanies.Forfouroutofthesixrespondents,oilandgasmakeupbetween85%-95%ofrevenues,withavisionofincreasingtheshareofrenewableandhydrogenintheimmediatefuture.Outofthese,threerespondentsmentionedtheywouldbeprovidingservicesthattargetrenewablehydrogen,althoughothertypesofhydrogenwerealsomentioned.OnerespondentalsomentionedtheywereworkingonaprojectaimingtolocalisesolarPVpanelproduction.Intermsofbusinesssegmentation,somerespondentsmentionedtheyhadrecentlycreatednewdivisionsorsegmentsforrenewableenergiesandhydrogen,oratleastthattheywereplanningonhavingaseparatetaskforcefornewprojectsinthecleanenergyspace.Concurrently,nonehadcreatednewlegalsubsidiaries.OverallanalysisoftransversallinkagesOverall,thisstudywasabletoidentifysomeoftheimportanttransversallinkagesthatexistbetweentheoilandgasindustryandcleanenergyindustries.ThesePAGE28LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainslinkagesindicatethatproducereconomiescoulddrawonarangeofpre-existingtransversalcapabilitiestojumpaheadinthedevelopmentoflocalcleanenergysupplychains.Thosecapabilitiescantaketheformofinfrastructure,products,services,andskillsattheincludingtechnical,managerialandorganisationallevels.Figure7ConceptualframeworkoflinkagesfromfossilfuelstocleanenergyindustriesOil&Gas(Upstream&Downstream)FiscalLinkageTransversalCapabilitiesInfrastructureProductswithKnowledge,WiderApplicationsTechnological&OrganizationalSkillsCleanEnergyIndustrialSupplyChainDevelopment&EconomicDiversificationIEA.CCBY4.0.Low-emissionhydrogen,asoneoftechnologiesforcleanenergy,canforinstancefeatureasignificantbreadthanddepthoflinkagestowardsarangeofindustriesthroughbothforwardlinkages(e.g.,towardslow-emissionsteelproduction)andbackwardlinkages(e.g.,theproductionofequipmentsuchaselectrolysers).Thisimpliesthatthetransitiontowardshydrogen,ifcarefullydesigned,canhelpopenthewayforavarietyoflower-emissionindustrialpathwaysandsupportbroadercriticalobjectivessuchaseconomicandexportdiversification.Theanalysisalsodetailsthelinkagesthatexistacrosstheproductiveandinfrastructuralfields,withsignificantpossiblecomplementaritiesfoundinserviceprovidersandintheskillsrequiredbybothsectors.MostrespondentsinOmanareatleasttosomeextentthinkingaboutandimplementingchangestotheirorganisationstopreparefortheincreaseddemandstemmingfromrenewableenergysegments.HydrogenproductionwithCCUSisalsoseenasapriorityformanyorganisationsgivenverystronglinkagestofossil-basedhydrogenproduction,butorganisationsalsoseecomplementaritieswithrenewablePAGE29IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainshydrogenproduction.Whileback-officepositionsandskillscanbeeasilyrepurposedfornew,low-emissiondivisionsandoperations,eventechnicalandengineeringskillscanfindusefulapplications.Concurrently,somechallengingareasremain.Theseincludetherepurposingofexistinggaspipelinesforhydrogentransport,aswellassomeskillsthatmaynotfindwide-scaleapplications,especiallyintherenewablehydrogensegment.Figure8showstheseinterrelationsandenableabetterunderstandingofwhereoverlapcanormightexistandthedifferentstakeholders’perceptionsinthatregard.Figure8MappingresultsofthetransversalcapabilitiesbetweenfossilfuelsandcleanenergyindustriesIEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE30IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsThenextthreesub-sectionsreviewtheanalysisofthespecifictypesoflinkagesidentifiedandusedtobuildourmapping(whetherskills,infrastructure,ortransversalsupplierswhichhavebeenabletorepurposetheircapabilities).TransversalsuppliersResultsattheinternationallevelThestudyalsoidentifiedalargelistoftransversalsupplierswhicharecurrentlyservicingboththeoilandgassectorandcleanenergyoperations,includinglow-emissionhydrogen.Thesesuppliersoperateacrossmanyareasanddisciplines,including:ProjectdesignandengineeringservicesEngineering,procurement,andconstructionManagementconsultingservicesSitepreparation(includingoffshoreconstruction)EquipmentprovidersChemicalprovidersAllfourofthesurveyedoilmajorsnotedthatmanyoftheirsupplierscurrentlysupplyandserviceboththeiroilandgasandlow-emissiondivisions,acrossmanyareasanddisciplines.Severalrespondentsalsonotedthatseveraloftheirsuppliersacrosstheentireoilandgasvaluechainhadbuiltuprenewableandlow-emissioncapabilities,includingprojectdesignandengineering;engineering,procurementandconstruction;technologylicensing,andinequipment,chemicalandproductmanufacturing.Table7belowpresentsabrieflistofsomeofthesuppliersidentifiedbytheirlocationonthevaluechain.Itisworthnotingthatallofthesearelargetraditionalplayerssupplytheoilandgasspace,showingthattheindustryhasquicklyre-adaptedtolower-emissiontechnologysolutions.Table7Categorisingoilandgasandlow-emissiontechnologytransversalsuppliersProjectdesignandHydrogenOffshorewindengineeringTechnip,SAIPEM,KBR,Wood,Doris,Worley,Technip,JGC,Chiyoda,Worley,SAIPEM,Ramboll,Wood.McDermottOthersSolarAker,Worley,DNV,AtkinsWood,JGC,WorleyEPCContractorsSAIPEM,Technip,SBM,McDermott,Ponticelli,Wood,KBR,TechnologylicensersWorley,JGC,Chiyoda,Petrofac,Bouygues,ColasUOP,Axens,HaldroTopsoePAGE31IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsGeotech,development&HistoricaldredgingconsentingsupplierscontractorsRPS,Gardline,Xodus,FugroDEME,VanOord,JandeNulandFredOlsenInstallationvesselsuppliersDrillingcontractorsSitepreparationandHeerema,Subsea7,Chouest,TransoceanconstructionSAIPEMEquipmentandproductMarineservicesCranesforoffshorewindmanufacturingBourbon,LouisDreyfusHuisman,MammoetandSarensEnvironmentalsurveyandconsultingsuppliersAECOM,ERM,Ramboll,WoodSubstationsCablesSchneiderElectric,Siemens,ABBNexans,Prysmian,NKTFloatingwindtechnologyTurbine/RotatingequipmentsuppliersGE,SiemensNOV,SBM,TechnipFMCAlso,ABB,Emerson,Rockwell,SchneiderElectric,YokogawaTheOmanicontext:operatorsandsuppliersIncontrastwiththeinternationalrespondents,andperhapsgiventheearlystagesoflow-emissionindustrialactivitiesinOman,operatorsinOmancouldnoteffectivelyidentifypotentialtransversalsuppliers,withsomefirmsnotingthatsuppliersintheirrenewableenergybusinesseshadnotyetbeenidentified,asstrategieshadnotyetbeenfinalised.Nonetheless,allrespondentsamongstthesupplierfirmsinOmannotedtheirabilitytoprovideservicesandgoodstotherenewableandhydrogensectorstosomeextent.Threesuppliersnotedthatmanyoftheirengineeringservicescouldberepurposed,withtheabilitytohandlehydrogenandrenewabletechnologiesasmanyoftheengineers“haveabackgroundinprocessplantshandlinghighpressure,hightemperaturefluidsandgases.”Somerespondentsalsonotedthattheelectricaldepartments’skillsetswerethesamefortheoilandgasandcleanenergysectors.SomecompaniesontheengineeringsidenotedthatyearsofEPCknowledgeallowedthemtobuildresilientanddiversifiedsupplychainswhichincludemanyservicesthatcouldbetransferredacrossindustries(e.g.,engineering,powerstations,powerplants,overheadtransmissionlines).Fortheresearchortraininginstitutes,thecoreexpertisecamefromproductknowledge(i.e.,training)andtheabilitytorepurposethisfortherenewablessector.Muchoftheexpertiseintraining/educationinstitutescamefromnewhires(discussedfurtherintheSkills&Trainingsection).Nonetheless,someofthecoreareasofsomeofthecompaniessurveyedwerenotedasbeingmoredifficultorimpossibletorepurpose,includingarangeofservicessuchasenhancedoilrecovery,drillingandsubsurfaceengineering,andsomechemical-basedservices.PAGE32IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsInfrasctrutureInternationaloilandgascompaniesIntermsoftheactualpartsofthevaluechainandexistinginfrastructurethatcanberepurposed,companiesansweredlargelybasedontheircorporatelow-emissiongoals.Thisyieldedinterestingandvariedinsights.Figure9andTable8summarisetheresults.Figure9InfrastructureassetswithpotentialforrepurposingbasedonsurveyresultsIEA.CCBY4.0.Source:IEA-ledsurvey(2022).Table8PossiblerepurposingofexistingassetsEnergyEnergyEnergyEnergyEnergycompany1company2company3company4company5GaspipelinesGaspipelinesforhydrogenBiofuelforhydrogenGaspipelinesrefineriesandstorageforBiofuelElectrificationofhydrogenandrefineriesElectrificationinstallationsCO2Biofuelrefineries(incl.storageandtransport)PAGE33IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsEnergyEnergyEnergyEnergyEnergycompany1company2company3company4company5OffshoreOffshore(offshorefacilities(Low-facilitiestowindproductionandemissionH2poweronshoregaswithCCS)terminals)ReservoirsforReservoircarbonstorageperformanceHydrogenasinputforrefiningandchemicalprocessesEVCharginginEVCharginginProductionretailretailsystemsoperationsoperationsWellconstructionDigital&integrationSource:IEA-ledsurvey(2022).Thebusinessmixofthesecompaniesandtheirassetportfoliosdeterminetherangeofpossibilitiesintermsofinfrastructurerepurposing.Forinstance,energycompany2mostlyfocusedonthealreadyplannedandongoingrepurposingofitsbiofuelrefinerybutdidnotethepossibleintegrationofsolarandotherrenewableenergysources(RES)topowerexistingoilandgasinfrastructure,oreventurningoffshoreoilandgasinstallationsintowindpower.TheintegrationofRESintoexistingoilandgasoperationswasalsomentionedbytheotherenergycompanies,buttovaryingextents.Accordingtoenergycompany3,theelectrificationofcurrentoperationsandtherepurposingofpipelineinfrastructuretoaccommodatehydrogentransportationwasakeyareaoffocus.Italsonotedthatasignificantdegreeofelectrificationalreadyoccurred.Energycompanies1and4whichprovidedthemostcomprehensiveanswersbothlistedpipelineinfrastructureaskeyassetstorepurposebutalsoaddedavarietyofotherassetswhichtheywouldbelookingtorepurpose.Tworespondentselaboratedontheirplansforbiofuels.Energycompany1waslookingtoinvestinatleastfivebiofuelprojects,threeofwhichwouldbeadjacenttoexistingrefineriesandtwoofwhichwouldbeconvertedfromexistingrefinerycapacity.Mosthydrogenprojectswouldlikelybegreenfield.Forenergycompany2,tworefinerieswerementioned,withaninvestmentrequirementofEUR500milliontoconvertoneofthemintoabiofuelsrefineryby2024.Energycompany4wasalsoplanningtherepurposingofitspipelineandstorageinfrastructuretoaccommodatebiofuels,hydrogenandCO2.EnergyPAGE34IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainscompany5highlightedtheconversionofoneoftheirfactoriestoelectrolysersbutdeclinedtomentiontheinvestmentrequiredforthis.Bothenergycompanies1&2,whohavesignificantretailoperations,highlightedapushtoincreaseEVchargingcapabilities.Onewasfocusingonthefittingof300roadservicestationsand600urbanservicestationswithhighpowerchargersby2030,inordertosupporte-mobility.Theotherwasalsolookingtoinstallhighspeedchargingcapabilitiesatitsservicestations.Somementionwasmadeofretrofittingexistingdownstreamcapabilitiestoaccommodatetheacceptanceofcleanerinputsinthemanufacturingprocess.Onerespondent(energycompany4)specificallymentionedthisregardingtheirrefiningandchemicalprocesses.Theconclusionfromthesupplierandrepurposingcomponentofthesurveyisthatoilandgasmajorsarecurrentlyactivelythinkingabouttherepurposingofexistinginfrastructureacrossthevaluechainforlow-emissiontechnologies.Whilesomeareheavilyconsideringtheelectrificationofexistingoilandgasproductionfacilities(assumptionscanbemadethatalloftheplayersaredoingthis,eveniftheyhaven’tlistedithere),othersarealreadyactivelythinkingabouttransportationandpipelineadaptationsforhydrogen.Challengeshoweverremain.Energycompany3mentionedthattherepurposingofpipelinesforhydrogenwouldbeverychallenging,especiallyundercurrentmarketconditions.Energycompany1’ssurveyresponsesnotedthatthemajorityofbothoff-andonshoreoilandgasinstallationswouldbedifficulttorepurpose(althoughsomewouldsupportcarboncaptureandstorage–CCS).LiquefiedNaturalGas(LNG)liqueficationandregasificationfacilitieswillalsobedifficulttoadequatelyrepurpose,althoughsomeexportinfrastructuremightsupportthedevelopmentofthetransportelementofthehydrogensupplychain.Challengesanduncertaintymightpersistasthestatusoftheglobalhydrogenmarket,includingcostsanddemandwerestilltobefullydefined.Thisisakeybarrierwhichhassofarpreventedsomeofthesurveyrespondentsfromengagingmoredeeplywiththehydrogensector.OmanoperatorsandsuppliersRespondentsoperatingintheoilandgassectorinOmanwerenotabletoprovidesufficientinformationontheinfrastructureandinvestmentneedsfortwokeyreasons:LackofapplicabilityStrategycurrentlybeingformulatedornotyetclearlydefinedPAGE35IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsOnerespondentnotedawillingnesstorepurposeassets“basedonopportunities”,notingonlythatthefuelgaspipelinenetworkcouldbeunderconsiderationforrepurposing.Someoftheinfrastructureandpowergenerationcouldalsoberepurposed.Anotherrespondentnotedthatsomeinfrastructure,includingreservoirs,wellandfieldscouldberepurposedforCCUSsupportinglow-emissionhydrogen.Somefacilities,includingpowergridsandwatertreatmentfacilitiescouldalsobeusedinthenewsegments.Anotherrespondentnotedthattheywereexploringtheusageofhydrogenasaninput,althoughtheymentionedthatsomeLNGprocessingassetscouldnotberepurposed.Overall,eventhoughclearopportunitiesexistfortherepurposingofoilandgasinfrastructuretowardshydrogenproduction,somechallengesandconcernspersist,inparticularinrelationtotheadaptationofpipelinesforhydrogenundercurrentmarketconditionsaswellasLNGliqueficationandregasificationfacilities,reservoirsforcarbonstorage,andthereconversionofrefineriesforbiofuels.SkillsandtrainingTheleveloftransversalityofskillscanbereflectedbytherateandtypeofredeploymentoflabourfromoilandgastolow-emissionoperations.Overall,surveyresultsrevealthattherateofinternalredeploymentoflabourversusexternalhiringforlow-emissionoperationsrangeswidelyfrom36%to89%(asof2020).Thoughthereisageneralconsensusthatre-skillingandmovingtalentintolow-emissiondivisionsispossibleacrossthevaluechain(generalagreement),specificareasofredeploymentinclude:GeoscienceEngineeringResearch,supplychainandlogistics,Refining,biofuelsandchemicalsmanufacturing.Incontrast,someveryspecificroleswillrequireexternalhiring(e.g.,windenergyappraisalandwindscience)InternationalOilCompanies(IOC)Threeoftherespondentfirmsprovidedin-depthinformationincludingconcretefiguresrelatedtotheirskillsandtrainingoutlook.Onerespondentnotedthatsofar,mostlyinternaltalenthadbeenleveragedandredeployedacrossitslow-emissiondivisions,butonlyanestimateofa“fewhundredworkers”wasgiven.Nonethelessareasofredeploymentwerelisted,including,butnotlimitedtogeoscience,commercial,engineering,research,supplychainandlogistics,andrefining,biofuelsandchemicalsmanufacturing.Otherrespondentsprovidedmuchmoredetailbutagreedthatre-skillingandPAGE36IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsmovingtalentintolow-emissiondivisionswaspossibleacrossthevaluechain.Table9providesasummaryofthesefindings.Table9Full-TimeEquivalent(FTE)incompanies’cleanenergydivisionsEnergyCompany1EnergyEnergyCompany2company5Low-emissionEV-Roughly2500-200FTEsSince2020-90externalFTEs-50externalFTEsforIntheH2IntegratedGas,production-50internalFTEsFTEsRESandPowerfacilitymore(GRP)specifically:moved.-50internal-800FTEs-5externalmovedintoFTEs-80FTEsFTEsmoved.renewablefuels-40internalFTEssecondedfromtechnicaldisciplines2022250-300FTEs250FTEs1500FTEswillexpectedtobebeavailableinrecruitedtoH2andGRP.offshorewind350youngFTEs20302000-3000FTEs1750-2000(mixedhiring)FTEs(mixedhiring)Source:IEA-ledsurvey(2022).Intermsofskillsthathavealreadybeenrepurposedin-house,therewasbroadagreementthatprojectmanagementandengineeringanddesignskillsweretransferrable,andofficejobshadalsoconvertedeasily,especiallyfunctionssuchasfinance,procurement,businessdevelopment,humanresources,marketing,sales,legaletc.Onerespondentnotedthattherequirementsforprojectmanagementandengineeringdesignwouldgrow,butthatthedigitalfunctionhadalreadyseenhighgrowthsince2020(470externalFTEsand180internalFTEs)Threerespondentsnotedthatwhilesomenewskillswouldbeneededmanycanstillbesourcedin-house(digital,technicaletc.),andcouldoftenbestrategicallysourcedthroughjointventures(JV)orpartnershipsandnotexclusivelybyrecruiting.Nonethelesssomeveryspecificroleswouldrequireexternalhiring(e.g.,windscientistsetc.),largelyinareaswherethecompanyhadnopriorexperience.Allthreecompanieswerealsoheavilyreliantonaninternalpipelineandinteresttoshiftemployeesintothecleanerenergydivisions.Forenergycompany1thishadbeen170FTEssofar,forenergycompany5itwasabout80%ofthedivision,whileenergycompany2notedthatseveralhundredcleanenergyjobswereprimarilyadvertisedthroughthecompany’sinternaltalentportal.PAGE37IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnalysisoflinkagesbetweenfossilfuelsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanandcleanenergysupplychainsOmanoperatorsFouroutoffivecompanieshiredexternalexpertsorcreatedsmallnewteamslookingatthedecarbonisationoftheiroperations.Whiletheseexpertshadsofarmostlyfocusedonoperationalaspects,threecompanieshighlightedthatinthefuturetheywouldprimarilyrequiremoreprocessengineeringcapacitywithexperienceintherenewablessectorandCCUS,alongwithotherengineers(electrical,chemicaletc).Whiletherehasbeensomeinternalre-skilling,externalhires,especiallythosewithrenewableengineeringbackgroundswereenvisionedinthefuture.Concurrently,somerespondentsalsomentionedtheneedtobringonboardfurtheradministrative,legal,financialandeconomicexpertsatalaterstagetosupportamoreenergy-transitionledvisionandstrategy.OmanisuppliersAvarietyofresponseswererecordedwithregardtotheperceptionofexistingversusfutureskillsandqualificationsneeded.Theresearchandtraininginstitutionsallhirednewexpertsfocusingoncleanenergysegments,withaviewofexpandingoperationsinthefieldandthereforeincreasingintake.OneuniversitymentionedthatsomeOmaniengineeringgraduateswerebeingplacedincleanenergydivisions.Allengineeringcompaniesalsohiredorwerelookingtohirenewexperts,withaviewofexpandingrecruitmentasmorecleanenergyprojectsarose.Thereseemedtobeanunderstandingthatmanyoftheengineerspreviouslyhiredcouldperformtasksinthecleanenergydivisions,withrespondentsnotingthattherewerelittleexpectationsthatskillsrequirementswoulddramaticallychange,withtraditionaloilandgasskillsstillindemand,althoughsomenewmorespecifichireswouldneedtobemade.PAGE38IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsPolicyimplicationsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanPolicyimplications:PuttingcapabilitiesrepurposingattheheartofpolicyactioninOmanAligninglocalcontentpoliciestowardstransversalcapabilitiesandindustrialdiversificationThefindingsofthisstudybearconsiderablerelevanceforpolicymakinginOman.Thestudyidentifiedvarioustypesoflinkages(e.g.,infrastructural,industrial,orskills-related)betweenfossilfuelsandcleanenergyindustries.However,bycomparingtheresultsfromthesurveysofinternationalandOmanifirms,itbecomesevidentthattheoilmajorshavemadethefirstmovetowardsreleasingtheirstrategiesregardingrepurposingcapabilities.AsOmanpursuesitstransitionefforts,wecanexpectdomesticoperatorsandsupplierstosharetheirvisiononthematter.Emergingopportunitiesincleanenergytechnologiesandhigherrisksoflock-inarefactorsthatwilllikelyaccelerateexistingtrendswithintheOmanioilandgassupplychains.However,consideringthehighlyheterogenouslevelsoftransversalityembeddedinproductivecapabilitiesaroundthefossilfuelsector,thelevelofreadinessforrepurposingamongstOmanifirmsoperatinginoilandgassupplychainsremainsunclear,mainlyduetoinsufficientresearchdedicatedtothetopicaswellasthelackofclearandunifiedcorporatestrategicdirection.Fromthatperspective,localcontentpoliciesintheenergysectorareneeded,butnotsufficienttoensurethatthetypeoflocalcapabilitiescorrespondstotransversalcapabilitiesthatcanbeeasilyrepurposed.Indeed,Omanhasalreadyimplementedalocalcontentpolicytofosteritsdomesticworkforce’scapabilityandtostimulateprivate-sectordevelopmentandemployment.However,giventhedifferentscopeforrepurposing,andOman’spolicydirectioninfavourofenergysectordecarbonisation,priorityshouldbegiventolocalcontentactivitiesthatprovidehigherprospectsforlinkageswithothersectorsthatcansupportnationaleconomicandenergydiversificationobjectives.AttentionshouldalsobegiventolinkagesthatdrivethehighestvaluetotheOmanieconomy,tooffsetpotentialrevenuelossesinducedbythetransition.Oman’sambitionsandplansfortheproductionoflow-emissionhydrogen,especiallyhydrogenelectrolysedfromrenewable-basedelectricity,willhelptodeveloprelevantlocaleconomicsectorsforbothsolarPVandwindpower.WhilePAGE39IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsPolicyimplicationsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmannumerouslocalprovidersandinstallationcompaniesalreadyexistinOman,theexpectedrapidincreaseinrenewablecapacitydeploymentwillhelpcreatehigherdemandforthelocalisationoflargerpartsoftherenewabletechnologyvaluechainwithinthecountry.Furthermore,astheglobalroadtodecarbonisationprogresses,furtherelectrificationofallkeyend-sectorsandsectorcouplingwillbeincreasinglynecessary,andOman’shydrogenproductionplanscouldacceleratethepushtowardslow-emissionelectrification.Thismayleadtothecreationofcleanerdownstreamsegments.Assuch,regardlessofhowhydrogenmarketsevolveinthemediumtolongterm,theincreaseofrenewableelectricitygenerationcapacitycanalreadybringsignificanteconomicbenefitsandimportantlyhelpwithreducingthedomesticconsumptionofotherfossilfuelresources,notablynaturalgas,whicharelessabundantthanforotherGulfexporters.Astheglobalhydrogen(andespeciallylow-emissionhydrogen)marketdevelops,sufficientforesightandholisticplanningmustbeinplacetoensurethathydrogendoesnotfollowtheprice-volatileandresource-dependentpaththatkeyproducershaveexperiencedtheiroilandgassector.Itmaybenecessarytoconsiderdiversificationupstreamordownstreamintohydrogen-basedproductstocounteracttheimpactsofmarketvolatilities.Furthermore,theutilisationoflow-emissionhydrogeninOman’shardtoabatesectorsandindustrialclustersmustbeassessedforfeasibility.Withinthemetalsandfertilisersector,theuseoflow-emissionhydrogencouldbepossible(giventheappropriatetechnicalandeconomicfeasibilitymodelling),withtheopportunitytonotonlydecarboniseindustrialproduction,reducenaturalgasconsumptionanddecreaseemissions,butalsotopromotehighvaluemanufacturingincompliancewithfuturestandardssetbykeyexportdestinations.Theproductionoflow-emissionsteel,aluminiumorfertilisercouldalsohelpOman’sproductsfindnewmarketsandincreasebilateraltradeandeconomicrelations,especiallywiththeEUandtheUS.Thedecarbonisationofexistingindustryandhard-to-abatesectors,aswellasthecreationofnewdownstreamgreensegmentswillrequiresignificantinvolvementfromthegovernmentandfinancinginstitutionstoprovidetherightincentivesandguaranteesforcompaniesandproducerstoinvestinswitchingtheirtechnologiestoaccommodateforhydrogen.MultilevelpolicyactiontopromotelocalintegrationincleanenergysupplychainsPolicyactionstofostertherepurposingofcapabilitiesfromtheoilandgassupplychainstothecleanenergysupplychainhingesonfourcoreenablers:Long-termvisionwithclearsectoraltargets.Newpoliciestosupportcleanenergysupplychaindevelopment.Developmentincentivesandsupportiveinstruments.Institutionalsetupandintegratedpolicycoordination.PAGE40IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsPolicyimplicationsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanLong-termvisionwithclearsectoraltargetsDespitetheeconomicandindustrialbenefitsoflocalintegrationinthecleanenergysector,repurposingskillsatcompanylevelremainsacomplexendeavour,andonewhichinvolvesrisks,costsaswellasdependencyonabroaderenergypolicy.Toaccompanythistransition,itisnecessarytohavealong-termvisionforbothdomesticandinternationalindustrystakeholders(e.g.,investors,state-ownedcompanies,IOCs,contractorsandsuppliers)toplantheirresourcesandcostsaccordingly.Oman’srenewablehydrogenstrategyadoptedin2022,forinstance,alreadyprovidesproductiontargetsfor2030at1Mt/yr,andby2050,toreach7.5-8.5Mt/yrby2050.Inaddition,thegovernmentsharedtheamountofinvestmentsneededtoachievethesetargets,whichitestimatestobeUSD140billionby2050.Whilethisvisionprovidesacleardirectiontoindustrystakeholders,adequatemechanismsneedtobeputinplaceinorderforthevisiontotranslateintoconcreteprojectsandtheachievementofproductiontargets.Morespecifically,eachsectorinvolvedinthehydrogensupplychainneedstounderstandhowtheymightcontributetothedevelopmentoftheindustrydomestically.Thiscouldbefacilitatedbytheestablishmentofcleartargetsforeachsectorandbysharingbestpracticesamongstakeholderswithsimilarfeaturesandinterests.NewpoliciestosupportcleanenergysupplychaindevelopmentTosupportthevisionandsectoraltargets,newpoliciesorpolicyupgradeswillbenecessarytoensurethemaximumleverageoftheexistingadvancedcapabilitiesintheoilandgasindustrytowardsthedevelopmentofnewenergiesinOman.Beyondenergy,Figure10showsanintegrativetoolboxtosupportacomprehensive,structured,andcompetitivecleanenergysupplychaindevelopment.PAGE41IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsPolicyimplicationsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanFigure10PolicytoolboxtosupportcleanenergysupplychaindevelopmentIEA.IEA.CCBY4.0.IEA.CCBY4.0.Thedomesticprivatebankingsectorcanberisk-averseandcanbereluctanttoprovidelongtermseedfunding,whileventurecapitaltendstobeattractedtoopportunitieswhereanexitcanbeachievedwithinareasonablyshorttime.Consequently,domesticdevelopmentbankssuchastheOmanDevelopmentBankcanhelpovercomesuchlimitations,notablybyreducingrisklevelsthroughblendedfinance.Governmentscanengagetheircentralbanksandotherdomesticdevelopmentinstitutionstoprovideincentives—includingspecialfacilitiesandfinancingoptions—toinducefinancialmarketstolendforenergytransitionprojects.Thisincludesasset-basedreserverequirementstoallocateresourcestopreferredsectors(e.g.,inrelationwithhydrogenproduction)ortheprovisionofcapitaltodevelopmentinstitutions,suchastheNationalDevelopmentBank,toprovidelendingtoprioritysectors5.Thecreationofthesenewinstrumentscanbeformulatedinclosecoordinationwiththerelevantstakeholders,includingprivatesectoractorsfromidentifiedpriorityindustries,toensureaccesstocreditandlowerthecostofcapital.Targetedskillsdevelopmentandadaptedlabourmarketpolicieswillalsobeessential.Governmentscanhaveakeyroleasacatalystoftargetedhumancapitalaccumulationnecessaryforthedevelopmentofthecleanenergyandhydrogensupplychain,whichrequirethewidespreadacquisitionofdifferenttypesofskills.PolicymakersinOmancanprovideacleardirectionandcoordinationforsuchskillsdevelopmentandtrainingactivitiesinwhichhighereducationinstitutions.Theseincludebothpublicandprivateuniversitiesandtrainingcentres,5Dikau,S.,&Volz,U.(2021).Centralbankmandates,sustainabilityobjectivesandthepromotionofgreenfinance.EcologicalEconomics,184,107022.PAGE42LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsPolicyimplicationsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmansuchasSultanQaboosUniversityandGutechwhichcouldplayaleadingrole.Skillsneededtoadaptanddevelopproducts,services,andprocessesforcleanenergyneedtobeintegratedintothewidertrainingandskillsdevelopmentpolicyratherthanbeingseenasadditionalorseparatefromotherformsofskillsdevelopment.Thesuccessfulredeploymentandrepurposingofskillsfromthefossilfueltothecleanenergyindustrieswillalsoonlybepossiblebyensuringthatworkerscanadaptandtransferfromtraditionalareasofemploymenttocleanenergyactivities(especiallythosewithhigherprospectsforrepurposing)suchastheproductionoflowemissionshydrogen.Inconjunctionwithanadaptedskillsdevelopmentpolicy,labourmarketpolicieswillalsobeneededtoensurereadinesstoseizegreenjobopportunitiesandtoavoidpotentialmisalignmentsacrosstime,space,andeducationalabilities.Re-skillingprogrammescanbedevelopedandimplementedincoordinationwithgovernment,industry,andeducationalinstitutionsinawaythattheworkforceisalignedwithcleanenergyindustries’needs.DevelopincentivesandsupportiveinstrumentsOncethevisionwithsectoraltargetsisdevelopedandtherelatedsupportivepoliciesareinplace,incentivesandsupportinstrumentscanbeconsideredtostimulateinterestindevelopingnewenergiesforboththedomesticandinternationalmarkets.Oilandgasdevelopmentbidscouldbeadaptedtoincentivisetechnologiesthatwouldcontributetotheemerginghydrogensupplychain.Forexample,oilandgaspowersupplyagreement(PSA)extensionscanbelinkedtoinvestmentsintechnologiessuchasCCUSorSolarPVtosupportthegovernment’srenewablehydrogenstrategy.Otherincentivestocontractorsandsupplierscantaketheformoftaxbreaks,attractivelandconcessionsorsubsidisedenergycostforoperatingassetssuchaselectrolysers.InstitutionalsetupandintegratedpolicycoordinationPolicycoordinationbetweenpolicymakers,regulators,andothergovernmentstakeholdersduringbothstrategyimplementationandevaluationisakeyrequirementforthesuccessfulperformanceofindustrial,energy,fiscal,economic,labourandeducationalpolicies.Thiscoordinationisfundamentalforlocalsupplierstoaccesscriticalinformationonqualitystandards,productandservicesneeds,aswellasskillsrequirementsinthecleanenergysupplychaininordertofacilitatetheirintegration.InstitutionalcoordinationforthecaseofOmancanbefurtherstrengthenedtoavoidtheriskofstakeholdermisalignmentastheprojectpipelinedevelops.Someinstitutionalrecommendations:PAGE43IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsPolicyimplicationsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanSetupaninter-industryplatformforsuppliersintheoilandgassectorsandkeycleanenergyandrenewablehydrogenactorsspecificallytoshareinformationonsupplyingneeds,qualitystandardsandengineeringrequirementstohelpinformthestrategicadoptionofOman’sin-countryvalue(ICV)strategytoprioritisetransversalcapabilitiesintheenergysectorsratherthanactivitiesandservicesathigherrisksofbeinglockedwithintheoilandgassector.Createanationalagencywithaskillsrepurposingmissionandretrainingcapacitytohelpworkers(includingthosewithlittlescopeforrepurposinginthefossilfuelsector)toacquiretheskillsandknow-howrequiredforlocalintegrationinthehydrogenindustry.ChileandGermanytooksimilarinitiatives.Establishanationalreadinessframeworkinthecontextoftheenergytransition,leveragingPDO’sexistinganalysisanddatainthisarea.Consideringthemultileveldegreeofoptimalpolicysupportforrepurposingcapabilitiesfromfossilfuelstocleanenergy,thisagendarequirespolicycoordinationbetweenawiderangeofactors,including:TheMinistryofEnergyandMinerals:tosetcredibletargets,ensurecoordination,andpolicycoherencewithOman’senergypolicy.TheMinistryofFinanceCentralBankofOman:toprioritisecapitalallocationtorepurposingaspartofabroadertransitiontowardsanallocativeroleandagreencentralbankingmandate.TheOmanDevelopmentBankandtheOmanInvestmentAuthority:todeploylongtermcapitaltowardspriorityareas.TheMinistryofIndustryCommerceandIndustry:todesignandimplementafarsightindustrialpolicyincentivisehydrogensupplychainlocalintegration.TheMinistryofHigherEducation,ScientificResearchandInnovation:toalignhumancapitalaccumulationwiththeskillsneedsofalocalsupplychainsdevelopmentaroundhydrogenproduction.Universities:toexpandgraduateprogrammesinareasthatofferthehighestdegreeoftransversalitywithintheenergysector.Thebusinesssector:especiallyhydrogenfirms,oilandgasoperations,andtheirlocalsupplierstoallowforinformationsharingandcapacitybuilding.TheserecommendationsaresummarisedinTable10.PAGE44IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsPolicyimplicationsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanTable10MultilevelpolicyactiontoleveragelocalcapabilitiesandfosterlocalvalueaddedaroundcleanenergyproductioninOmanPolicyToolsExamplesVISIONAdoptionofclearindustrial-ConsolidationofOman’sSETTINGgoalsandroadmap2040visionwiththeadoptionofclearobjectivesCAPACITYInformationsharingandforlocalvalueadditioninBUILDINGintra-industrylinkagescleanenergysupplyConsiderationoflocalchains,andindustry-FISCALcontentincentivesandspecificroadmapsforfirmsINCENTIVEScapacitydevelopmentcurrentlyoperatingintheprogrammestofosteroilandgassector&learning-by-doingforlocalFINANCIALsuppliers-NationalsurveyfortheSUPPORTsupplyofgoodsandInvestmentpromotionintheservicesaroundcleanDEMAND-SIDEcleanenergysupplychains,energyincludingassociatedinfrastructure-EstablishmentofaplatformFinancialsupportforforknowledgesharinginvestmentinthecleanregardingrequirements,energysupplychainsandetc.allocativeroleoftheCentralbank-InclusionoflocalcontentconsiderationsaspartofIncentivesandadoptionoftendersforcleanenergysustainabilitystandardstoprojectsgeneratethedemandforcleanenergy-Strategicinternationalpartnershipsallowingtosharebestpractices-Fiscalincentivesforinvestmentsinsolarandwindenergyplants-Subsidisedcredits(throughthenationaldevelopmentbankortheCentralbank)forinvestmentsinthecleanenergysupplychains.-Taxbreaksforoperationswithincleanenergysupplychainsforfirmswhosebusinessisnormallyintheoilandgassectortoencouragerepurposing-Governmentregulationstophase-incleanenergyindustrialactivitiesPAGE45IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsPolicyimplicationsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanTECHNOLOGICALCollaborationwithpotential-Taxbreaks,subsidiesorRESILIENCEdomesticadoptersandpreferentialloansforincentivestofuelswitchtoindustrialadopterslookingSKILLScleanenergyintheirtorepurposetheirexistingACCUMULATIONproductionproductionprocesstocleanenergyTechnologicalforesightcapabilities-SettingupofcentrefortechnologicalforesighttoEstablishnationalkeeptrackofadvancescompetencyframeworksforaroundhydrogenandtherepurposingofskillsfosterthelocalisationoffrom‘dirty’to‘clean’activitieswiththehighestenergiescapacityforrepurposingExpansionofeducationandandlowerrisksoftrainingprogrammesfortechnologicaldisruption,skilledhumancapitalofferincubationandaccumulationrelatedtosupportfortechnologygreenindustriestransfer&diffusion-Retrainingprogrammesforjobsatrisksfromtheglobalenergytransition(similarlytoChileValoraforinstance)-Expansionoftrainingprogrammestoprovideskillsrequiredforthelocalisationofactivitiesrelatedtorenewables-Inter-universitycollaborationsandstrategicinternationalpartnershipsPAGE46IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsConclusionsAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanConclusionsAkeyaspectofenergyandeconomicdiversificationinfossilfuelexportingeconomiessuchasOmanliesinthedomesticabilitytorepurposeexistingproductivecapabilitiestowardscleanenergyvaluechains.Inthatsense,thisstudycontributestoidentifyingsomeoftheproductivecapabilities(technologies,skillsandinfrastructure)thatcanberepurposedfromfossilfuelproductioninordertopromotelocalintegrationincleanenergychains,aswellasaddressingthechallengesthatpersist.Notallactivitieshavethesamescopeforrepurposing,andthepanoramaforrepurposingisindeedextremelyheterogeneous.Whilechemicalandtemperatureengineeringcapabilitiescanbeeasilyrepurposed,othercapabilities(suchasdrillingexpertiseandequipment)donotoffergreatscopefortransversalitytowardscleanenergyoperations,implyingthatworkersmightrequireconsiderableretrainingaspartofalow-emissionenergyfutureifproducereconomieslooktoacceleratethedevelopmentofcleanenergyproduction,makingtheroleofpolicyinterventionsparticularlyimportant.InOman,thosefindingshaveconsiderablepolicyimplicationsinordertosupportthegovernment’slongtermenergytransitionandhydrogenstrategy.Proactivepolicyinterventions,basedonamultistakeholderapproachandcarefulinstitutionalcoordination,willbeofparamountimportanceforthesuccessofthisagenda.PAGE47IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnnexAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanAnnexSurveymethodologyIEA.CCBY4.0.Togenerateamixofquantitativeandqualitativeinsightsontherepurposingofproductivecapabilitiesfromoilandgastohydrogen,themethodologyusedinthisstudyreliedonfirm-levelsurveys,atthegloballevelaswellasnational(Oman)level,wherebothoilandoperatorsandlocalsuppliersweresurveyed.Suchmethodsofferasuperior,andhighlygranularlevelofqualitativeunderstandingofrepurposingplanscomparedtothequantitativeanalysisoftradedatagiventhelimitedexportoflow-emissionhydrogentodateorconductingsimilaritytestsbetweenthesupplychainsinquestion.Intotal,16respondentswereincludedintheanalysisofthesurveys(fiveoilandgasmajors,fiveoperatorsinOman,andsixlocalsuppliers).Thequalityofthedatareceivedfromthequestionnairessenttothecompaniesvariedintermsofquality,relevanceandthelevelofdetailprovided,butdoesallowforinterestinginsightsonhowtheoilandgassectorsconceptualisethetransitionpathwaystoagreenereconomyandthedifferentstagesandmaturityoftheprocess.TheanalysisprovidesasummaryofthefindingsonthelinkagesthatexistbetweentheO&Goperationsandhydrogenoperations,whichhelpsadvancetheunderstandingofthenatureofdualdecarbonisation-diversificationpathwaysinfossilfuelproducingcountries.Respondents’profile:OilandgasmajorsIntotal,fiveresponseswerereceivedfromthetargetoilandgascompanies.Whilethesampleissmallandstatisticalanalysiscannotbeapplied,significantdiversityexistsacrossthecompaniessurveyedintermsofthewaytheyareintegratedandwhichbusinesssegmentstheyprioritise.Thisdifferentiatesthemwithregardstothedevelopmentoftheirrevenuestreamsalongthevaluechainandtherelativeimportanceoftheirlow-emissiondivisions.Allfivesurveyedcompaniesarealreadytransitioningorarelookingtomoveintothelow-emissionspace,albeittodifferingextentsandwithdifferinggoals.Allfivecompanieshaveannouncedtheirlow-emissionstrategieswithinthelastsixyears,withallfiveeitherupdatingorsubstantiallyincreasingambitionsbetween2020and2022.Somecompanieshavebeenengagedinlower-emissionsourcesfordecadesbuthadonlyrecentlyformalisedtheirstrategy.Respondents’profile:OperatorsinOmanAtotaloffiveresponsesfromoperatorsworkinginOmanwerereceived,coveringabroadrangeofsegmentsandsectors:PAGE48LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnnexAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanOfthefivecompaniessurveyed,anddespitedifferencesintheirstageinthevaluechain,operationsandcorebusinessmodels,fournotedsomefocusonrenewableenergytechnologies.Oneoperatormentionedthattheirstrategywasstillunderboarddiscussion,butthatcertainlow-emissionenergieswillfeatureinfuturestrategies.Twocompaniesdisclosedtheshareofspendonrenewabletechnologies,albeitatlowlevels(5-15%and3-4%by2023respectively)althoughthereisanexpectationofvariance.Acrossfirms,solarenergyisakeytargetsector.However,somefirmshavealsooutlinedotherkeyfocussectors,suchaswindenergy,CCUS,andhydrogenproduction.Respondents’profile:SuppliersinOmanAtotalofsixresponseswerereceivedandfromlocalOmanisuppliersservicingtheoilandgasindustry,withwidevarianceacrosstheservicestheyprovide:Thebreadthoffocusandexpertiseacrossthesupplychainyieldedvaluableresults,witharelativelyhighqualityofresponses(thoughadditionalresponseswouldbeusefulforfurtherresearch,especiallyfromthelocalengineeringconsultancies/OFSEcompanies).Alloftherespondentsmentionedthattheirservices(e.g.,training,consultingoroperations)havebeenbroadenedtoincluderenewableenergyorhydrogenprojects,withonlyoneactormentioningtheyhadnothadrequestsfornewservicesinOman(althoughtheymentionedtheydoworkontheseprojectsinothergeographies).FiveoutofsixrespondentshadsomeoperationsorprojectsoutsideofOman,withmostofthemalsoperformingservicesinthewiderGCCregion.Tworespondentsspecificallymentionedseekinginternationalpartnershipsandtryingtointegrateinternationalexpertiseandbestpractices,withonehighlightingthefactthattheOmanigovernmentcoulddomoretofostertheseinternationalalliances.PAGE49IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnnexAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanAbbreviationsandacronymsAPSAnnouncedPledgesScenariosCAPEXCapitalExpenditureCBAMCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanismCO2CarbonDioxideCCSCarbonCaptureandStorageCCUSCarbonCapture,UtilisationandStorageDONGDanishOilandNaturalGasDPSDhofarPowerSystemEOREnhancedOilRecoveryEPCEnergyPerformanceContractingEVElectricVehicleFTEFull-TimeEquivalentGCCGulfCooperationCouncilGDPGrossDomesticProductGRPGas,RESandPowerGutechGermanUniversityofTechnologyH2HydrogenICVIn-CountryValueIOCInternationalOilCompanyJVJointVentureLNGLiquefiedNaturalGasMECMuscatEngineeringConsultancyMENAMiddleEastandNorthAfricaMISMainInterconnectedSystemMVAManufacturingValueAddedNZENetZeroby2050ScenarioOFSEOilfieldServices&EquipmentOLNGOmanLiquefiedNaturalGasPDOPetroleumDevelopmentOmanPSAPowerSupplyAgreementPVPhotovoltaicsRESRenewableEnergySourceSPFZSoharPortandFreezoneTESTotalEnergySuppliesTFCTotalFinalConsumptionUSUnitedStatesPAGE50IEA.CCBY4.0.LeveragingFossilFuelCapabilitiesforCleanEnergyTransitionsAnnexAssessmentofopportunitiesinOmanUnitsofmeasureGWGigawattKm2SquarekilometreMtMilliontonnesMt/yrMilliontonnesperyearMtoeMilliontonnesofoilequivalentMWMegawattMWtMegawattThermalTJTerajoulePAGE51IEA.CCBY4.0.InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)ThisworkreflectstheviewsoftheIEASecretariatbutdoesnotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheIEA’sindividualmembercountriesorofanyparticularfunderorcollaborator.Theworkdoesnotconstituteprofessionaladviceonanyspecificissueorsituation.TheIEAmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,inrespectofthework’scontents(includingitscompletenessoraccuracy)andshallnotberesponsibleforanyuseof,orrelianceon,thework.SubjecttotheIEA’sNoticeforCC-licencedContent,thisworkislicencedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0InternationalLicence.Thisdocumentandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Unlessotherwiseindicated,allmaterialpresentedinfiguresandtablesisderivedfromIEAdataandanalysis.IEAPublicationsInternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.orgContactinformation:www.iea.org/contactTypesetinFrancebyIEA-November2023Coverdesign:IEAPhotocredits:©Shutterstock

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