GlobalElectricityMid-YearInsights2023Globalpowersectoremissionsplateauedinthefirsthalfof2023aswindandsolarcontinuetogrow.However,adversehydroconditionspreventedemissionsfromfalling.September20232AboutThisreportanalyseschangesinglobalelectricitygenerationfromJanuarytoJune2023,comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,tomeasuretheprogressoftheglobalcleanenergytransition.Thereportanalysesmonthlyelectricitydatafrom78countriesrepresenting92%ofglobalelectricitydemandandincludesestimatedchangesintheremaininggeneration.ItalsodivesdeeperintothetopfiveCO2emittingcountriesandregions,accountingforover70%ofglobalCO2emissionsinthepowersector.LeadauthorMałgorzataWiatros-Motyka,NicolasFulghumOtherauthorsandcontributorsHannahBroadbent,DaveJones,ChelseaBruce-Lockhart,PhilMacDonald,MattEwenCoverimageSolarpaneltechniciansworkingaSpanishfactory.Credit:CavanImages/AlamyStockPhotoDisclaimerTheinformationinthisreportiscompleteandcorrecttothebestofourknowledge,butifyouspotanerror,pleaseemailinfo@ember-climate.org3CreativeCommonsThisreportispublishedunderaCreativeCommonsShareAlikeAttributionLicence(CCBY-SA4.0).Youareactivelyencouragedtoshareandadaptthereport,butyoumustcredittheauthorsandtitle,andyoumustshareanymaterialyoucreateunderthesamelicence.Copyright©Ember,2023Contents6ExecutiveSummary10GlobalAnalysis10GlobalpowersectoremissionsplateauedinH1-202313Globalhydrooutputseeshistoricfall17Windandsolarcontinuetoincreasetheirshareintheglobalpowermix24Lowdemandgrowthworldwide26Countryandregionanalysis26China30UnitedStates32EuropeanUnion35India37Japan40Conclusion42Supportingmaterials4Highlights+12%-8.5%+0.1%GlobalwindandsolarGlobalhydrogenerationGlobalfossilfuelgenerationgenerationincreasedecreaseincrease+0.2%GlobalpowersectoremissionsincreaseExecutiveSummaryGlobalpowersectoremissionsplateauedaswindandsolarcontinuetogrowHowever,adversehydroconditions–likelyexacerbatedbyclimatechange–preventedemissionsfromfallinginthefirsthalfof2023.Powersectoremissionsplateauedinthefirsthalfof2023,withaslightincreaseof0.2%comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,aswindandsolarcontinuetogrow.Windandsolarweretheonlyelectricitysourcesthatsignificantlyincreasedboththeirgenerationaswellasshareintheglobalpowermix.Despitethis,adversehydroconditions–likelyexacerbatedbyclimatechange–preventedemissionsfromfalling.Thedeficitcreatedbyhydro,particularlyinChina,ledtoasmallincreaseinfossilfuels.However,lowelectricitydemandhelpedtosuppressfurtheremissionsgrowthatagloballevelbyreducingtheconsumptionoffossilfuels.FallsindemandledtosignificantemissionsfallsintheEuropeanUnion,UnitedStates,JapanandSouthKorea,whilemoderatedemandgrowthinIndialedtosloweremissionsgrowth.01GlobalpowersectoremissionsplateauedGlobalemissionsfromthepowersectorroseonly0.2%(+12milliontonnesofCO2)inthefirsthalfof2023whencomparedtothesameperiodlastyear.MajorfallsinemissionswereseenintheEU(-17%),Japan(-12%),theUS(-8.6%)andSouthKorea(-3%),asaresultoffallsincoalgeneration–mostnotablyintheUS(-27%)andEU(-23%),butalsoinJapan(-7.4%)andSouthKorea(-2.5%).AslowerincreaseinemissionswasseeninIndia,withanincreaseof3.7%inthefirsthalfof2023versus9.7%inthesameperiodlastyear.Powersectoremissionsroseby7.9%inChinaduetoarecordfallinhydrogeneration.60250countrieshitnewsolarrecordsWindandsolarweretheonlytwoelectricitysourcesthatsignificantlyincreasedtheirshareofglobalelectricity,risingto14.3%inthefirsthalfof2023,comparedto12.8%inthesameperiodlastyear.However,theirgenerationgrewmoreslowlythaninthesameperiodlastyear.Windgrew10%inthefirsthalfof2023,comparedto16%inthesameperiodlastyear.Solargrewby16%,comparedto26%inthefirsthalfof2022.Acrosstheglobe,50countriessetnewmonthlysolargenerationrecordsinthefirsthalfof2023.Chinacontinuestobetheleaderinsolargeneration,providing43%ofglobalgrowthinsolargeneration,whiletheEU,USandIndiaaccountedforabout12%each.03HistoricfallinglobalhydrooutputHydrogeneration,thelargestelectricitysourceamongallrenewables,fellsignificantly(-8.5%,-177TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023duetodroughts.ThiswasespeciallynotableinChinawhichaccountedforaroundthree-quartersoftheglobalfall.Fossilgenerationincreasedslightlytomeetthedeficitcreatedbyhydro.Powersectoremissionswouldhavefallenby2.9%hadglobalhydrogenerationbeenatthesamelevelaslastyear.04LowdemandgrowthworldwideGlobalelectricitydemandroseonly0.4%inthefirsthalfof2023comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,whichismuchlowerthantheaverageannualgrowthbetween2012and2022of2.6%.Fallsindemandinhigh-incomeeconomieswereamajordriver,includinginJapan(-5.6%),theEU(-4.6%),theUS(-3.4%)andSouthKorea(-1.4%)wherethisledtoanoverallfallinfossilfuels.Lower-than-expecteddemandgrowthinIndiaof3.1%,comparedtoa10.7%increaseinthesameperiodlastyear,wasanotherfactorloweringglobaldemand.7Fossilfuelsandemissionswouldhavefalleninthefirsthalfof2023ifweren’tforahistoricfallinhydrogenerationduetodroughts.Itisunclearwhetherthesituationwillimproveintherestoftheyear.Fornow,theturningpointforthepowersectorremainshanginginthebalance.Nonetheless,itisclearfromthelatestglobaldataonelectricitygenerationthattheworldisnearingthepointoffallingpowersectoremissions.Earlierthisyear,Ember’sanalysisshowedthat2023maybethefirstyearwithstructurallyfallingglobalemissionsfromthepowersector,ifcleanpowergrowthcontinues.Beforethispoint,powersectoremissionshavebeenstructurallyrising,andtherehaveonlyeverbeenfallsduringglobaleconomicshockssuchasthe2008financialcrisisorthe2020Covid-19pandemic.Itstillremainstooclosetocallwhetherpowersectoremissionswillfallacrossthefullyearin2023.Reaching‘peak’fossilemissionsinthepowersectorisacrucialmilestoneintheglobaltransitiontoaclean,electrifiedeconomy.Butthemostcriticalpartiswhathappensnext.Toachievetherapiddeclinesinemissionsrequiredthisdecade,thereneedstobearapidaccelerationinthedeploymentofwindandsolarpower.Triplingglobalrenewablecapacityby2030isthesinglebiggestactionthatgovernmentscantaketoputtheworldoncoursefora1.5Calignedpathway.8“It’sstillhanginginthebalanceif2023willseeafallinpowersectoremissions.Whileitisencouragingtoseetheremarkablegrowthofwindandsolarenergy,wecan’tignorethestarkrealityofadversehydroconditionsintensifiedbyclimatechange.Theworldisteeteringatthepeakofpowersectoremissions,andwenowneedtounleashthemomentumforarapiddeclineinfossilfuelsbysecuringaglobalagreementtotriplerenewablescapacitythisdecade.”MalgorzataWiatros-MotykaSeniorElectricityAnalyst,Ember“Themessageissimple:triplingrenewableenergycapacityby2030istheclearroutetoreducingemissionsfromthepowersector,alongwithbuildinganewenergysystemthatdeliversclean,secureandjustpowertotheworld.Withhydroconditionsnowbeingaffectedbyclimatechange,thechallengetoworldleadersandpolicymakersisgrowing;COP28isthetimefortheworldtorisetothatchallengeanddeliveracleartargetoftriplingrenewablecapacitybytheendofthedecadeandsettheworldonthecoursefornetzeroby2050”BruceDouglasCEO,GlobalRenewablesAllianceChapter1GlobalAnalysisGlobalpowersectoremissionsplateauedGlobalpowersectoremissionsremainedalmostunchangedinthefirsthalfof2023,aswindandsolarcontinuedtoincreasetheirshareintheworld’spowermix.However,adversehydroconditions–likelyexacerbatedbyclimatechange–preventedemissionsfromfallinginthefirsthalfof2023.GlobalpowersectoremissionsplateauedinH1-2023Theglobalpowersectorproduced5,795milliontonnesofcarbondioxide(mtCO2)inthefirsthalfof2023,almostunchangedfromthesameperiodlastyear,withaslightincreaseof0.2%(+12mtCO2).10Theplateauin2023isnotable.Historically,powersectoremissionshavebeenrisingstructurally.Therehaveonlyeverbeenfallsduringglobaleconomicshockssuchasthe2008financialcrisisorthe2020Covid-19pandemic.Majorhigh-incomeeconomiessawsomeofthebiggestfallsinemissions.EmissionsfellintheEUby17%(-59mtCO2),intheUSby8.6%(-64mtCO2),inJapanby12%(-25mtCO2)andinSouthKoreaby3%(-3.6mtCO2).Indiasawaslowerincreaseinemissions,withemissionsrisingby3.7%(+19mtCO2)inthefirsthalfof2023comparedtoa9.7%increase(+45mtCO2)inthesameperiodlastyear.InChinaemissionsroseby7.9%(+173mtCO2),inlargepartduetopoorhydroconditions.GlobalfossilgenerationremainedalmostunchangedFossilfuelsgenerated59.9%ofglobalelectricityinthefirsthalfof2023(8,100TWh),comparedto60.1%inthesameperiodlastyear(8,091TWh).11Globalfossilfuelgenerationremainedalmostunchanged,risingbyonly0.1%(+9TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023,comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Coalgenerationincreasedby1%(+47TWh),gasgenerationroseby0.5%(+14TWh)butotherfossilfuel(mainlyoil)generationfell15%(-52TWh).Changesattheregionalandcountrylevelvariedsignificantly.JapanandtheEUweretheonlytwohigh-income,high-pollutingeconomiesthatsawafallinbothcoalandgas.Incontrast,intheUScoalfellbutgasgenerationincreased.Coalgenerationfellinsomemajorhigh-incomeeconomiesinthefirsthalfof2023:theEU(-23%,-49TWh),theUS(-27%,-112TWh),Japan(-7.4%,-10TWh)andSouthKorea(-2.5%,-2.2TWh).Thesefallsweredrivenbythefallsinelectricitydemandinthesecountries,andintheUSalsobecauseofthecoal-to-gasswitch.12Elsewhere,coalfellinChile(-33%,-3.8TWh)despitedemandslightlyincreasing(+0.5%,+0.2TWh).CoalgenerationalsodecreasedinSouthAfrica(-9.8%,-10TWh.Incontrast,coalgenerationincreasedinChina(+8%,+203TWh)andIndia(+3.8%,+23TWh)andsomeotherdevelopingnations.GasgenerationfellintheEU(-13%,-33TWh).GasgenerationalsofellinJapan(-17%,-28TWh),andinIndia(-3.4%,-0.5TWh),butincreasedintheUS(+8.1%,+61TWh)andinChina(+8%,+9.7TWh).IntheUS,gasgenerationhasbeenincreasingsince2005whilecoalhasbeendeclining,atrendthatisexpectedtocontinueatleastinthenear-term.Generationfromotherfossilfuels,mainlyoil,fellglobally,withfallsincludingtheEU(-12%,-3.8TWh),Japan(-22%,-6.1TWh)andtheUS(-8.5%,-1.6TWh)amongmanyothercountries.GlobalhydrooutputseeshistoricfallThefirsthalfof2023sawahistoricdeclineinglobalhydrogenerationof8.5%(-177TWh),causedbydroughtswhichwerelikelyexacerbatedbyclimatechange.ThefallinthesixmonthstoJunewaslargerthananydeclinerecordedacrossafullyearinthelasttwodecades.Three-quartersofthefallcamefromChina(-129TWh).Asaresult,hydrogenerated14%(1,898TWh)ofglobalelectricityinthefirsthalfof2023,comparedtoashareof15%(2,075TWh)inthesameperiodlastyear.Theadversehydroconditionspreventedafallinglobalpowersectoremissions.HadhydrogenerationremainedatthesamelevelsseeninH1-2022,fossilgenerationwouldhavenothadtocompensateforthehydrodeficitof177TWh.Insteadofasmallrise,fossilgenerationwouldhavefallen168TWh,leadingtoafallinpowersectoremissionsof2.9%(-119milliontonnesofCO2).13Thedeclineinhydrocamedespiteadditionsinhydrocapacity,asaresultofworsehydroconditionsinChina,theUS,Indiaandothercountries.Thisisevidentinthecapacityfactor,whichshowstheactualoutputrelativetothetheoreticallimitoftheexistingcapacity.Thefirsthalfof2023sawdramaticfallsintheglobalcapacityfactorofhydrogeneration,whichfellto35.6%,nearlyfourpercentagepointslowerthaninH1-2022.Althoughthecapacityfactorforhydrofluctuatessignificantlybetweenthefirstandsecondhalfoftheyearduetoseasonalvariations,H1-2023representsadramaticfallcomparedtohistoricalvalues.Acrossthelast10years,theaverageglobalcapacityfactorwas40.9%.Thisnewlowin2023comesaftertheglobalhydrocapacityfactoralreadyhittwoconsecutiveall-timeannuallowsin2021(39.6%)and2022(39.4%).ThehydroissueswereparticularlynotableinChina,wherelastyear’sdroughtsandongoingheatwavesin2023affectedreservoirlevelsandhydrooutput.China’shydrocapacityfactorfellto30.5%inH1-2023,tenpercentagepointsbelowthefirsthalfoflastyearandthelowestvalueseensinceatleast2015.WithChinarepresentingnearlyathirdoftheworld’shydrogeneration(30%in2022),conditionsinChinastronglyinfluenceglobalhydrooutput.142023asawholeislikelytosetarecordforthelowestglobalhydrocapacityfactorinrecordedhistoryifconditionsdon’tsubstantiallyimproveinthesecondhalfoftheyear.UncertaintyaroundstructuraldeclineinhydroconditionsThegloballongtermoutlookontheeffectofclimatechangeonhydrooutputisuncertainaseffectsofclimatechangeonhydropotentialaregeographicallyvaried.Changesinrainfallpatternsandintensityaswellasincreasedevaporationwillaffecthydrooutputbothpositivelyandnegativelydependingontheregion.TheIPCC’sAR6WGIIreportstatesthatby2080,climateconditionscouldaffectproductionbetween+5%and-5%underahighemissionsscenario.WhilecentralAfrica,India,centralAsiaandnorthernhighlatitudesareexpectedtohavehigherhydropowerpotential,southernEurope,thesouthernUSandotherscouldseetheirhydropotentialworsen.Manycountriesareexperiencinglowerhydrooutputthanatthestartofthecentury.Recentyearshavebeenmarkedbyperiodsofdroughtsandreducedhydrooutput,notablyinChina,Europe,andotherregions.15However,thehistoricallong-termtrendregardingglobalhydroconditionsremainsambiguous,withsignificantregionaldisparitiesintheimpactsofstructuralfactorslikeclimatechangeonhydroconditions.Itistruethattheglobalcapacityfactorforhydrohasseenaslightdownwardtrendinthelasttwodecades.However,atthesametime,India,Russia,SwedenandChinahaveseentheircapacityfactorincreaseoverthistimeperiod,thelatterevenholdswhenaccountingforChina’srecentdownturn.Consequently,itisdifficulttopredictfuturetrendsforhydrogenerationatagloballevel.WhatthehydrolowsmeanfortheelectricitytransitionThisyear’srecordfallinhydrogenerationisawarningshotthathydrooutputcouldnegativelyaffectthespeedoftheelectricitytransition.IntheIEA’snetzeroscenario,hydrogenerationwouldhavetoriseby4%annuallyfrom2021to2030tobeontrackfornetzeroemissionsby2050.However,thishasnotbeenmetineither2021(-2.2%),2022(+1.3%)orH1-2023(-8.5%).16Whenhydrogenerationremainsbelowexpectations,itleavesadeficitthatnewlow-carbonelectricity(mostlywindandsolar)hastomakeupforinadditiontomeetingadditionalelectricitydemandandreplacingfossilfuels.Onlywhensourceslikewindandsolargrowfastenoughtoovercomeboththeuncertaintyofoutputfromothercleansourcesaswellasgrowingelectricitydemandwillweseesubstantialreductionsinfossilgenerationandemissions.WindandsolarcontinuetoincreasetheirshareintheglobalpowermixWindandsolarweretheonlytwoelectricitysourcesthatsignificantlyincreasedtheirshareintheglobalpowermix.Togetherwindandsolargenerated14.3%ofglobalelectricityinthefirsthalfof2023(1,930TWh),a1.5percentagepointsincreasefromthesameperiodlastyear,whentheygenerated12.8%ofglobalelectricity(1,717TWh).Inthefirsthalfof2023,5.5%ofglobalelectricitycamefromsolarand8.8%fromwind.Globally,windandsolarbothgrewinH1-2023comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,althoughataslowerratethantheydidlastyear.Windgenerationincreasedby10%,lowerthanthegrowthinthesameperiodlastyear(+16%).Solargenerationrose16%,alsolowerthanthe26%increaseinthesameperiodyear.Suchincreasesarebelowthegrowthneededfornetzero,whichrequiresayearlyaveragegrowthof17%forwindand24%forsolar,accordingtotheIEA’snetzeroscenario.Inabsoluteterms,windandsolargainalsoremainedbelowlastyear’slevel:solargrewby104TWhcomparedto132TWhinthesameperiodlastyear.Windgenerationincreasedby109TWhcomparedtogainsof147TWhinthesameperiodlastyear.17ChinaremainsagloballeaderinwindandsolarChinaaccountedfor91%ofglobalgrowthinwindpowerand43%ofglobalgrowthinsolargenerationinthefirsthalfof2023.ThenextlargestcontributorsweretheEUandIndia,whoeachaccountedfor12%ofglobalgrowthinsolargeneration.TheEU,USandJapanarelaggingbehindChina’sprogressonwindgeneration.Chinaachieveda26%growthinwindgenerationinthefirsthalfof2023comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Incomparison,windgenerationonlygrew4.8%intheEU,whileJapanrecordedonlya2.4%increasefromanalreadylowbaseline.TheUSsawwindgenerationfall5.6%duetopoorwindconditions.Similartowind,theEU,USandJapanarealsolaggingbehindChina’sprogressonnewsolargeneration.China’ssolargenerationgrewby21%inthefirsthalfof2023comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.India,however,hadanevenhighergrowthrate(+26%)inthefirsthalfof2023,butfromamuchlowerbasethanChina.Incomparison,solargenerationgrewonly13%inboththeEUandtheUS,whileitfellinJapanby2%.18SolargenerationgrowthlowerthanexpectedgivencapacityadditionsBasedoncapacityadditionestimatesbytheIEA,itwouldhavebeenexpectedthatsolargenerationwouldincreasebyaround140-160TWhinthefirsthalfof2023.Therefore,theactualobservedincreaseinsolargenerationof104TWhis26-35%belowtheexpectation.Thedifferenceinexpectationscomparedtoactualgrowthcanpartiallybeexplainedbyweatherconditions.Anotherpossiblereasonisanincreaseinunmeasuredbehind-the-metrecapacitybeinginstalledonrooftops,whichcanleadtolowerreporteddemandaswellasunderreportinginactualsolargenerationandgrowth.1950countrieshitnewmonthlyrecordsforsolargenerationDespiteslower-than-expectedsolargenerationgrowth,50countriesacrosstheglobeexperiencednewmonthlyrecordsforsolargenerationinthefirsthalfof2023.InAsia,ChinaandIndiawereamongthosewithnewmonthlyrecords.Forexample,Chinagenerated50TWh(6.4%ofitselectricity)fromsolarinJune2023,anincreaseof9.7TWhwhencomparedtoJune2022.TheelectricitygeneratedfromsolarinChinainjustthemonthofJune(50TWh)wouldbeenoughtopowera20countrylikeNewZealand,QatarorHungaryforawholeyear.IndiaachievedanewrecordinMay2023,generating10.8TWh(7.3%ofitselectricity)fromsolar,anincreaseof2TWhcomparedtoMay2022.IntheEU,24ofthebloc’s27memberssawnewsolarhighsasofJune.Forexample,theNetherlandsgenerated3.5TWh(36%)fromsolarinJune2023,comparedto2.3TWhinMay2022,whilePolandgenerated1.9TWh(16%)inMay2023,comparedto1.2TWhinMay2022.RecordswerealsobrokenintheUS,Mexico,BrazilandChile,amongmanyothersintheAmericasandaroundtheglobe.Forexample,theUSgenerated26TWh(7%ofitselectricity)fromsolarinJune2023,comparedto22TWhinJune2022.Chilegenerated1.7TWh(24%)fromsolarinJanuary2023,comparedto1.3TWhinJanuary2022.SlowdowninglobalcapacityadditionsforwindpowerIncontrasttothesteadygrowthinannualsolarcapacityadditions,windcapacityadditionsarenottrendingupwards.Afterpeakingin2020,windcapacityadditionsweresmallerinthefollowingtwoconsecutiveyears.In2020,111GWofwindcapacitywasinstalledworldwide,comparedto92GWin2021and73GWin2022.Asaresult,thegrowthinwindgenerationhasslowedinrecentyears.2021sawthelargestgrowthinwindgenerationinhistory(+268TWh),butthisslowedin2022(+251TWh)andthefirsthalfof2023hasseenanincreaseof109TWhinnewwindgenerationincomparisontolastyear.Amongmajoreconomies,theEU,theUS,andJapanarelaggingbehindonwindgrowthwhileChinawasresponsiblefor91%oftheglobalgrowthinwindgenerationinthefirsthalfof2023.Therearesignificantbarriersholdingbackwinddeploymentinmanypartsoftheworld,includingpermittingandgridconnectiondelays.Additionally,asexpected,temporaryweatherconditionsaffectedwindgenerationinsomecountries,notablyintheUSinthefirsthalfof2023,wherewindgenerationfellby5.6%(-13TWh).Itisclearthatmanygovernmentsneedtotakeactiontospeedupadditionsinwind.21WindandsolaradditionspreventedmajoremissionsincreaseWindandsolaradditionscontinuetobethemaindriveroftheelectricitytransitionasadditionsinH1-2023avoided142milliontonnesofCO2emissions.InH1-2023,windandsolargenerationincreasedby213TWhcomparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Thisuptickmetalloftheriseinelectricitydemandandcompensatedforsomeofthedeclineinhydrogeneration.Withoutthiscontributionfromwindandsolar,theshortfallwouldhavebeenmetbyfossilfuels,resultinginahigheremissionincrease.Insteadofa0.2%increaseinpowersectoremissions,equivalentto12milliontonnesofCO2,theincreasewouldhavebeen2.6%,or154milliontonnes.Duetothegrowthinwindandsolargeneration,thepotentialemissionsincreasewasreducedby92%(-142milliontonnesofCO2),whichisequivalenttomorethanthetotalpowersectoremissionsofSouthKoreainH1-2023.22ThisdynamicisespeciallyevidentinChina.Withoutwindandsolaradditionsmeetingthe6%increaseinelectricitydemand,fossilfuelswouldhavemetthedemandincreaseinstead,resultinginanemissionsincreaseof285milliontonnesofCO2(+13%).Instead,China’spowersectoremissionsroseby173milliontonnesofCO2(+7.9%).InIndia,windandsolargrowthpreventedanincreaseof11milliontonnesofemissions.Powersectoremissionsroseby19milliontonnesofCO2(+3.7%),insteadofapotential30milliontonnesofCO2(+5.7%)ifwindandsolarhadremainedatthesamelevelasinH1-2022.IntheEU,powersectoremissionsfell,aslowerdemandreducedtheneedforsomefossilgeneration.Additionsinwindandsolarreducedfossilgenerationfurther.Emissionsfellby17%(-59milliontonnesofCO2).Withoutwindandsolaradditions,theywouldhavefallenby13%(-44milliontonnesofCO2).23LowdemandgrowthworldwideGlobalelectricitydemandroseonly0.4%(+59TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023;amuchlowerrisethan2.8%inthesameperiodlastyear.Theincreaseisalsolowerthantheyearlyhistoricalaverageoverthelastdecadeof2.6%.Suchlowgrowthwasdrivenbydemandfallsinanumberofmatureeconomies,andbylowerthanexpecteddemandgrowthinIndia.Electricitydemandfellby5.6%inJapan,4.6%intheEU,3.4%intheUSand1.4%inSouthKorea.Suchfallsindemandcontributedtoreducingemissionsineachofthesecountriesandtoflatteningemissionsatthegloballevel.Demandfallsinhighincomeeconomieswereduetovaryingreasons.IntheEU,theelectricitydemandfallshavecontinuedsinceMarch2022inthewakeofRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.Thefallinthefirsthalfof2023islargerthanthefallsduetotheCovid-19pandemicin2020.Since2022,thedemandfallscanbeattributedtoacombinationoffactors:policymeasuresaimedtoreducedemandamidsttheenergycrisisandsecurityoffossilgassupplyconcerns,alargecutbyenergy-intensiveindustries,mildweatherinwinter,andreducedpersonalelectricityuseduetoacostoflivingcrisis.Under-reportingofbehind-the-metersolargenerationisalsoleadingtosomemisattribution,showingelectricitydemandfalling,insteadofsolarrising.ThisisaprobleminmanyEuropeancountries,madeapparentbytheunprecedentedsurgeinnewrooftopsolarinstallations.IntheUS,demandfellduetoslowereconomicactivityandmilderweather.InJapan,demandfellduetomilderweatherbutalsoduetosomeelectricitysavingmeasures.DemandincreasedinChinaandIndiaasthesecountriescontinuetoadvancetheireconomies.InChina,electricitydemandincreasedby6%,inlinewithnationalestimatesfor2023andsimilartothehistoricaveragefor2012-2022(+5.9%).InIndia,demandincreasedby3.1%,whichwaslowerthantheaveragegrowthfor2012-2022(+5.4%)andmuchslowerthanthe11%growthseeninthesameperiodlastyear,whenthecountrywasrecoveringfromCovid-19lockdownsaswellasexperiencingsomeheatwaves.24Slowdemandgrowth,andespeciallythefallsseeninsomematureeconomies,isunlikelytocontinuetothesamelevelinthefuture.Ascountrieselectrifytheireconomies,theirelectricitydemandislikelytoincrease,evenasefficiencyimproves.Thismeansthatcountriescannotrelyonfallingdemandtoreduceemissionsfromthepowersector.Insteadtheyneedtoincreasetheircleanelectricitysources.Atthesametime,electricitydemandisexpectedtoincreaseacrossrapidly-growingeconomies,includingChinaandIndia,astheycontinuetoadvancetheireconomiesandincreaseaccesstoelectricity.Chapter2CountryandregionanalysisDeepdiveonthefivebiggestpowersectoremittersElectricitydemandfellinsomehighincomeeconomies(theEU,Japan,andtheUS),drivingtheiremissionsdownandcontributingtoflatteningemissionsatthegloballevel.InIndia,demandgrewmoderatelyleadingtoslowergrowthincoalgenerationcomparedtothesameperiodlastyearwhichinturnsloweddownemissionsrise.DemandalsoincreasedinChinawhereproblemswithhydronecessitatedhighercoalconsumptionandledtoincreasedemissions.ChinaChinaaccountedfortwo-thirdsofglobalgrowthinwindandsolargenerationinthefirsthalfof2023,butpoorhydroconditionsledtoanincreaseincoalpower.Chinaistheworld’slargestpowerproducer,accountingfor31%ofglobalgeneration,anditwillcontinuetoberesponsibleformostfutureglobaldemandgrowth.Hence,whathappensinthecountry’selectricitysectoriscriticallyimportanttotheglobalelectricitytransition.Inthefirsthalfof2023,Chinaaccountedfor67%ofglobalgrowthinwindandsolargeneration,butpoorhydrooutputmeantthatChinaalsosawasignificantincreaseingenerationfromcoal..26China’sdemandincreasedabovetheworldaverageChina’selectricitydemandgrew6%(+246TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023,alargerincreasethanthe2.4%growthseeninthesameperiodlastyear.However,thecountry’sgrowththisyearisinlinewithitsaveragegrowthoverthelastdecade(2012-2022)of5.9%.Asusual,China’sdemandgrowthinthefirsthalfofthisyearwassignificantlyhigherthantheglobalaverageof0.4%.DemandgrowthinChinawasmainlycausedbyeconomicgrowth,whichisforecasttobeabouttwicetheworld’saveragethisyear,aswellasheatwavesoverMayandJuneresultinginincreaseddemandfromairconditioninginthatperiod.Despitethetemporaryweather-relatedincreases,thedemandgrowthof6%thisyearsofarhasbeeninlinewiththeChinaElectricityCouncilforecastfor2023of6%.ChinaremainsagloballeaderinnewwindandsolargenerationChinacontinuestobethegloballeaderinthebuildupofwindandsolar,accountingfor67%oftheglobalincreaseinwindandsolargenerationinthefirsthalfof2023.27China’swindgenerationincreased26%(+99TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023,comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,whichisalmostthreetimesfasterthantheglobalaverage.China’sfastgrowthinwindgenerationisoutpacinggrowthintheEU,JapanandtheUSwheregenerationeithergrewmoderatelyorsawsmallfalls.Thismeantthat91%ofglobaladditionsinwindgenerationinH1-2023camefromChina.Atthesametime,China’ssolargenerationgrew21%(+44TWh),higherthanglobalsolargrowthof16%.Inthefirsthalfof2023,Chinaprovided43%oftheglobalincreaseinsolargeneration.Combined,thetwosourcesgrew24%(+144TWh)inChina,nearlydoubletheglobalaveragegrowthof12%.GenerationfromwindandsolarinChinahasdoubledinjustthreeyears.InH1-2020,369TWhwereproducedfromwindandsolar.InH1-2023,thishadincreasedto738TWh.Consequentlytheshareofwindandsolargenerationalsoincreasedsubstantially,from11%inH1-2020to17%ofChina’selectricityinthefirstsixmonthsof2023.Itisthefirstsix-monthperiodinwhichChinahasgeneratedmorethanasixthofitselectricityfromwindandsolar.ChinaremainsagloballeaderinnewwindandsolargenerationWindandsolaradditionscovered58%(144TWh)oftheincreaseinChina’selectricitydemand.Smallincreasesinothercleangeneration,suchasnuclearandbioenergy,contributedlessthan10%(18TWh)oftheriseindemand.Newhydropowerprojectswerealsocompleted,butdroughtssawoutputfromhydropowerfallby22%(-129TWh).Thishydrodeficit–alongsidetheriseindemandthatwasnotmetbycleanpowergeneration–createdalargeshortfallwhichwasfilledbycoalgeneration,whichincreased8%(+203TWh)toanewrecordhigh.Hadhydrogenerationbeenunchangedyear-on-year,China’scoalgenerationwouldhaveincreasedfarmoreslowly,asitwouldnothavehadtomakeupforthelargehydrodeficitof129TWh.Withthehydrodeficit,China’scoalgenerationincreasedby203TWh(+8%)inthefirsthalfof2023,comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Withoutthisdeficititwouldhaverisenby74TWh(+2.9%).Thiswouldhavebeenenoughtoturnariseinglobalcoalgenerationof47TWhintoafallof82TWh.28ItisstillpossibleforChina’shydrooutputin2023torecover.SeveredroughtsstartedtohaveanegativeeffectonChina’shydrogenerationinthesecondhalfof2022,andcontinuedintothefirsthalfof2023.Averageorgoodhydroconditionsinthesecondhalfof2023couldthereforeseeareturntooutputsignificantlyabovethepreviousyear’slevels.China’spowersectoremissionsriseDrivenbytheincreaseincoalgeneration,emissionsfromChina’spowersectorjumped7.9%(+173milliontonnesofCO2)inthefirstsixmonthsof2023.Incomparison,globalpowersectoremissionsrosemuchmoreslowly(+0.2%).MostoftheincreaseinChinaoccurredfromMarchtoJune.AsofFebruary,China’spowersectoremissionshadbeen1.4%belowlevelsseeninthefirsthalfof2022.However,fromMarchonwards,poorhydroconditionsledtoanincreaseincoalgeneration.WhetherfurtherincreasesinChina’spowersectoremissionscanbeavoideddependsonseveralfactors.Ifwindandsolarcontinuetoincreaseattheircurrentgrowthrates,theiradditionsalonecouldsoonbeenoughtomeetallofChina’s29increaseinelectricitydemand.Itwillthendependonothercleansourcessuchasnucleargenerationandvolatilehydroconditionsaswellastherateofeconomicanddemandgrowth,whenweseethefirststructuralemissionfallsinChina’spowersector.UnitedStatesUnitedStatesresponsiblefor13%ofglobalsolargrowthinthefirsthalfof2023.TheUScontributed13%ofglobalgrowthinsolargenerationinH1-2023,despitenationalgrowthrates(+13%)lowerthantheglobalaverage(+16%).Atthesametime,windgenerationintheUSfell16%,duetoworsewindconditionsthaninthepreviousyear.Asaresultofdemandfallingandcoal-to-gasswitching,USpowersectoremissionsfellby64milliontonnes,whichhelpedensurethatglobalpowersectoremissionsplateauedratherthanincreased.30Coal-to-gasswitchingpushedUScoalgenerationdownUScoalgenerationfellby27%(-112TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Thiswasaresultofaswitchtogasgeneration,whichincreasedby8%(+61TWh),aswellassignificantfallsinelectricitydemandof3.4%(-72TWh)aftertwoyearsofaboveaveragedemandgrowth.ThereductionindemandintheUSwascausedbybothslowerthanexpectedeconomicgrowthaswellasmildertemperaturesinQ1of2023.Botheconomicgrowthandelectricitydemandareexpectedtoriseagainin2024.USrenewablesstallaswindandhydrodipRenewableelectricitygenerationintheUSfellby3.7%(-19TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023,comparedtoaglobalincreaseof10%.USwindgenerationfellby5.6%(-13TWh),incontrasttoaglobalriseof10%.UShydrogenerationfellby12%(-17TWh),similartotheglobaldeclineof12%.Otherrenewablesandbioenergysawonlyminorchanges.USsolargenerationgrew13%(+13TWh),butremainedbelowtheglobaltrend(+16%).Thisyear’sfallinUShydrogenerationfollowsmultipleyearsofhydrodeclineorstagnationsincethepeakinH1-2017,withtheexceptionofH1-2021.ComparedtoH1-2017,hydrogenerationH1-2023wasdown23%.ThereductioninUSwindgenerationof5.6%issurprisinggiventhe6%increaseinwindcapacityinthe12monthstoJune2023.However,goodwindconditionsinH1-2022causedwindgenerationtogrowby25%.WindgenerationinH1-2023wasstillup18%comparedtotwoyearspriorinH1-2020.Inadditiontothe6%increaseinwindcapacity,theeiareportedastaggering25%increaseinUSsolarcapacityinthe12monthsleadinguptoJune2023.Solarandwindgenerationlookpoisedtoincreasesubstantially,depressingcoalgenerationfurtherifhydroconditionsremainatcurrentlevelsorimprove.31FallinUSpowersectoremissionsduetolowerdemandandcoaltogasswitchThesubstantialfallincoalgenerationcausedUSpowersectoremissionsinH1-2023tofall8.6%(-64milliontonnesofCO2).ThefallinUSemissionsisequivalentto1.1%ofglobalpowersectoremissionsandcontributedtoglobalsectoremissionsplateauingwithanincreaseofjust0.2%(12milliontonnesofCO2)inthefirsthalfof2023.Duetothecontinuedadditionsofrenewables,powersectoremissionsintheUShavebeenstructurallyfallingformorethanadecade.Forthefullyearof2022,powersectoremissionswere17%belowthelevel10yearsearlierin2013.However,thefallsinH1-2023,althoughsignificant,arestilllowerthanpreviousfallsseeninthepandemicyearofH1-2020,orH1-2016whencoalconsumptiondecreasedasgasandoilincreased.FortheUStocontinuewithsignificantemissionsdeclines,itcannotrelyondemandreductionstodrivefallsinfossilgeneration.Instead,afastbuildofwindandsolarisrequiredtomeetnewelectricitydemandanddrivefossilgenerationoutofthemix.EuropeanUnionDeclineinEUfossilgenerationcontributestoplateauofglobalpowersectoremissions.EUelectricitydemandcontinuedtofallinthefirsthalfof2023,slowingglobaldemandgrowth.TheEUcontributed11%ofglobalgrowthinwindandsolargenerationinH1-2023,despitethefactthatitsgrowthrateswerelowerthantheglobalaverage.Asaresultofdemandfallingandrenewablesincreasing,fossilfuelgenerationfelldramatically.Consequently,theEU’spowersectoremissionsfellby59milliontonnes(-17%),whichhelpedensurethatglobalpowersectoremissionsplateauedratherthanincreased.32EUelectricitydemandfallscontinueEUelectricitydemandfell4.6%(-61TWh)inthefirstsixmonthsof2023,incontrasttoaglobalriseof0.4%.ThefallinelectricitydemandinH1-2023isthecontinuationofatrendthatstartedwithRussia’sinvasionofUkraineinthespringoflastyear,withdemandintheEUfalling1.4%inthefirsthalfof2022and3.3%acrossthewholeof2022.HighelectricitypricesduetohighgasimportcostsaswellassecurityofsupplyconcernsarisingfromRussia’sinvasionofUkraineinearly2022ledtosignificantdemandsavingmeasuresbyEuropeannations.Lowelectricitydemandinthefirsthalfoftheyearandfurtheradditionsinwindandsolargenerationalsoledtothefirstrecordedmonth–inMay–intheEUwherewindandsolarproducedmoreelectricitythanfossilfuels.Withthecontinuedbuildupofwindandsolar,theserecordsaresettobecomethenormastheEU’selectricitytransitioncontinues.33ModeraterenewablesgrowthintheEUTheEUincreaseditssolarandwindgenerationmoderatelyinthefirsthalfof2023.Windgenerationincreasedby4.8%(+10TWh),farslowerthantheglobalaveragegrowthof10%,whilesolarincreasedby13%(+13TWh),alsobelowtheglobalincreaseof16%.Nevertheless,windandsolargrowthintheEUcontributed11%totheglobalincreaseinthefirsthalfof2023,andtheEUremainsoneoftheregionswiththehighestshareofwindandsolargeneration(27%inH1-2023incontrasttoglobalaverageof14%),becausetheblocdeployedwindandsolarmuchearlierthanotherregions.InH1-2023,therewere17EUcountriesthatachievedrecordhighrenewablegeneration.Forexample,renewablesprovidedarecord50%ofpowerinGreeceinthefirsthalfof2023,andreached75%inPortugaland79%inDenmarkforthefirsttime.EUfossilgenerationfallstoarecordlowLowerdemandandrenewablegrowthledtoEUfossilpowerfallingby17%(-86TWh).ThiswasonlyonepercentagepointlessthanthereductionseenduringH1-2020whentheCovid-19pandemiccauseddemandandfossilgenerationtofallby18%.TheEU’sfossilgenerationinthefirsthalfof2023wasthelowestsinceatleast2000at410TWh.ThefallwasEurope-wide,withadeclineofatleast20%inelevencountries,andmorethan30%infive(Portugal,Austria,Bulgaria,Estonia,Finland)asdescribedindetailinEmber’slatestreviewoftheEU’spowersectortransition.EUcoalgenerationfellthemost–amassive23%(-49TWh)–incontrasttoaglobalriseof1%.Coalgenerationcomprisedlessthan10%oftheEU’selectricitygenerationforthefirsttimeeverinMay,withMayandJunemarkingthetwolowestcoalmonthsonrecord.EUgasgenerationdecreasedby13%(-33TWh),incontrasttoaglobalriseof0.5%.34EU’spowersectoremissionsfallEUpowersectoremissionsweredown17%(-59milliontonnesofCO2)asaresultofthefallinfossilgeneration,afterbothH1-2022andH1-2021hadseenemissionsrise.ThefallintheEU’semissionsisequivalentto1%ofglobalpowersectoremissionsandcontributedtoglobalsectoremissionsplateauingwithanincreaseofjust0.2%(12milliontonnesofCO2)inthefirsthalfof2023.IndiaIndiaresponsiblefor12%ofglobalgrowthinsolarinthefirsthalfof2023.India’ssolargrowthwasabovetheglobalaverageinthefirsthalfof2023andcontributed12%ofglobalgrowthinsolargeneration.Consequently,India’semissionsgrowthslowed,asmoderatedemandgrowthandtheriseinrenewableshelpedtemperfossilfuelexpansion.35ModeratedemandgrowthinIndiaIndia’selectricitydemandincreased3.1%(+25TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023,abovetheglobalaverageof0.4%.India’sdemandgrowthsofarthisyearissignificantlybelowtheratesseeninH1-2021(+13%)andH1-2022(+11%),althoughthosegrowthrateshavetobeseeninthecontextofaneconomicrecoveryaftertheCovid-19pandemicasthecountrycaughtuptodemandgrowthratesseenbefore2020.India’srenewablesincrease,butnotstrongenoughtostopfossilfromrisingIndia’sgrowthinsolargeneration(+26%,+12TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023wasabovetheglobalaveragegrowth(+16%)andenoughtomeetmorethanhalfofthecountry’sdemandincrease.InH1-2023,IndiacontributednearlyasmuchnewsolargenerationastheEU,with12%oftheglobaladditions.However,India’ssolargenerationgrewataslowerratecomparedtothesameperiodlastyearwhereitincreasedby35%.Thoughitisworthnotingthatinabsolutetermsboththefirsthalfof2023andfirsthalfof2022sawthesameincreaseingenerationfromsolar(+12TWh).Tomaintainhighpercentagegrowthratesassolarexpands,Indianeedstoseelargergenerationadditionseachyear.Othercleansourcesperformedlesswell.India’swindgenerationincreasedbyonly4.9%(+1.7TWh)inthefirstsixmonthsof2023,whichisbelowtheglobalaverage(+10%).Moreover,thisgrowthratewassignificantlybelowtheincreaseinwindgenerationinIndiainH1-2022(+13%,+4TWh).India’sgenerationfromallrenewablesincreased4.8%(+7.7TWh).Thegrowthwouldhavebeenhigheriftherewasnofallinhydro,whichdecreasedby7.5%(-5.1TWh),aslightlysmallerfallthanseenworldwide(-8.5%).India’sbioenergyalsofellby11%(-1.1TWh),incontrasttoaglobalriseof1.7%.36India’sfossilgenerationrose3.7%(+23TWh)tomeetasubstantialdeficitcreatedbylowhydrooutput,fallsinnucleargenerationandhigherelectricityexportstoneighbouringcountries.India’sfossilgrowthwasmuchhigherthantheglobalgrowthof0.1%.Thiswasdrivenbyariseincoalgenerationwhichincreasedby3.8%(+23TWh)incontrasttoaglobalriseof1%.AtthesametimeIndia’sgasgenerationfellby3.4%(-0.5TWh),whichwasfasterthantheglobalfallof0.5%.SloweremissionsgrowthinIndiaIndia’spowersectoremissionsgrewby3.7%(+19milliontonnesofCO2)inthefirsthalfof2023.Thisrepresentsasignificantslowingofemissionsgrowth,lessthanhalfofthegrowthseeninthefirsthalfof2022(+9.7%,+45milliontonnesofCO2).India’semissionsgrowthwasslowerascoalgenerationdidnothavetoriseaggressivelytomeetthegrowthindemand.Demandgrowthwaslowerinthefirsthalfof2023(+3.1%)comparedtothesameperiodlastyearwhendemandgrewstrongly(+11%)asthecountrywasrecoveringfromtheCovid-19lockdowns.LowerdemandincreaseinthefirsthalfofthisyearmeantaslowerriseinIndia’scoalgeneration(+3.8%)comparedtothesameperiodlastyear(+10%),andconsequentlyloweremissionsgrowth.JapanDeclineinJapan’sfossilgenerationcontributestoplateauofglobalpowersectoremissions.Japan’srapiddeclineinfossilfuelsinthefirsthalfof2023ledtoafallinpowersectoremissionsof25milliontonnesofCO2,contributingtoaplateauinglobalpowersectoremissions.Japan’snucleargrowthwasabovetheglobalaverage,anddemandfellsignificantly,drivingthedeclineinfossilfuels.However,bothwindandsolarremainedatsimilarlevelstolastyear.37NuclearcomebackanddemandfallsinJapandrivedownfossilfuelsJapan’snucleargenerationsawasignificantincreaseinthefirsthalfof2023,growing47%(+12TWh)comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,asreactorswerereturnedtoserviceaftermaintenance.ThegrowthinJapan’snucleargenerationwasmuchhigherthantheglobalaveragegrowthof0.7%.Inrecentyears,between2020and2022,Japan’snuclearfleethasbeenexperiencingdelaysinreactormaintenanceasthecountrysoughttoreintroducemorenuclearpowertothemixafterithadphasedoutnuclearpowercompletelyintheaftermathofthe2011Fukushimadisaster.Morereactorsstartedtocomebackonlineduring2022aftercompletingmaintenance.Asaresult,inH1-2023,nucleargenerationwasup47%(+12TWh)comparedtoH1-2022.Atthesametime,Japan’selectricitydemandfellby5.6%(-27TWh)inH1-2023amideffortstoreduceelectricityconsumption.Thishelpedtolowerglobaldemandandconsequentlyhelpedglobalemissionstoplateau.38TheadditionsinnucleargenerationpairedwiththefallinelectricitydemandandsmallincreasesinbothgenerationfrombioenergyandhydropoweroutputreducedJapan’srelianceonfossilfuelssignificantly.FossilgenerationinH1-2023wasdown14%(-45TWh)comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Mostofthereductionscamefromgasgeneration(-17%,-28TWh),thoughcoalgeneration(-7.4%,-10TWh)andotherfossilfuels(-22%,-6.1TWh)alsofellsubstantially.Japan’swindandsolarremainmutedForthefullyearof2022,Japan’ssolargenerationsawanincreaseof11%(+10TWh),lessthanhalfoftheglobalincreaseof25%.However,H1-2023showednosignsofcontinuedgrowth,assolargenerationfellslightlyby1.9%(-1TWh),comparedtotheglobalincreaseof16%.SimilarlyJapan’swindgenerationsawalmostnochange(+2.4%,+0.2TWh)inH1-2023comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,whichisfarbelowtheglobalgrowthof10%.ThedeploymentofwindgenerationremainsamajoruntappedpotentialforJapantoaccelerateitstransitionawayfromfossilfuelsandtoacleanpowersector.FallsinJapan’sfossilgenerationleadtoemissionsdeclineJapan’s14%fallinfossilgenerationresultedinanemissionsfallof12%(-25milliontonnesofCO2)inthefirsthalfof2023.ThefallinJapan’semissionsisequivalentto0.4%ofglobalpowersectoremissionsandcontributedtoglobalsectoremissionsplateauingwithanincreaseofjust0.2%(12milliontonnesofCO2)inthefirsthalfof2023.ConclusionWorldteeteringat‘peakfossil’inthepowersectorEmissionsfellinsomeofthemajorCO2emittingeconomies,butmoreambitiousactionisrequiredtobringglobalpowersectoremissionsdownTheglobalpowersectorneedstoachievenetzeroby2035inOECDcountriesandby2040intherestoftheworld,toputtheworldonapathwaytolimitingglobalwarmingto1.5C.Globalemissionsplateauedinthefirsthalfof2023,animportantfirststepintheelectricitytransitionastheworldseeksto‘peak’emissionsandbegintheprocessofdecline.However,powersectoremissionsneedtobefallingfastthisdecade,notjustplateauing.Moreover,havingfallingemissionswhendemandisexceptionallylowisnotenough;emissionsmustbefallingevenwhenglobaldemandisincreasingastheworldconsumesmoreelectricityandmovestowardselectrifyingtheentireeconomy.Forglobalpowersectoremissionstofall,morecleansourcesneedtobeadded,sotheycannotonlymeetgrowingelectricitydemandbutstartreplacingfossilfuelgeneration.Inparticular,windandsolarneedtobecomethebackboneofthefutureelectricitysystem,providingabout70%ofglobalpowerby2040,andothercleansourceslikenuclearandhydroneedtoincreasetoo.40Althoughwindandsolarhavebeengrowingmuchmorethananyotherelectricitysource,theirdeploymentneedstotripleby2030andtheyneedtomaintainahighgrowthrateyearonyearofabout20%.Thiscanonlybeachievedifstrongpoliciesareinplacethatnotonlyincorporateambitioustargetsbutalsodeliverthepolicyenablersneededtoincentiviseandde-riskthedeploymentofmorewindandsolar.Theseincludestreamliningthepermittingprocess,focusingongriddevelopmentandmodernisation,andbuildingsupportinginfrastructurelikeinterconnections,adequatestorageandmore.Anincreaseininternationalfundingisalsocrucialtosupportfossil-dependentemergingeconomiestotransitiontocleanelectricity.Asthesituationwithhydrogenerationshows,itisalsocrucialtomitigatetheimpactofclimatechangeoncleanelectricitygeneration.Soforexamplesolutionssuchasfloatingsolarpanelsonhydroreservoirscanbeconsideredtoreduceevaporation,aswellasbetterreservoirmanagement.AsinternationalcallsforatriplingofrenewablescontinuetogrowaheadofCOP28,thestakeshaveneverbeenhigher.Alreadyin2023wehaveseenrecord-breakingglobaltemperaturesandacceleratingimpactsofclimatechange.Decarbonisingelectricitybyacceleratingwindandsolaristhesinglebiggestactionwecantakethisdecadetoputtheworldbackontrack.SupportingmaterialsMethodologySummaryThisreportanalysesthelatestmonthlypowersectordatafor78countriesrepresenting92%ofglobalpowerdemand,aswellasannualdatafor215countries.Dataiscollectedfrommulti-countrydatasets(EIA,Eurostat,BP)aswellasnationalsources(e.gChinadatafromtheNationalBureauofStatistics).Thelatestannualgenerationdataisestimatedusingmonthlygenerationdata.AnnualcapacitydataiscollectedfromGEM,IRENAandWRI.Adetailedmethodologycanbeaccessedhere.AllthedatacanbeviewedanddownloadedfreelyfromEmber’swebsite.CapacityfactorsCapacityfactorsarecalculatedbasedonIRENAcapacitydataandEmbergenerationdata.Capacitybuildupthroughouttheyearisinterpolatedfromendofyearvaluestoarriveatmid-pointcapacityforfullyearsorhalfyears(H1,H2).Endofyearcapacityvaluesfor2023arebasedoncapacityadditionestimatesbytheIEA.EmissionsscenarioThescenarioforemissionschangesifhydrohadnotfallenusesatwo-thirdscoal,one-thirdgasratioforthereducedfossilfuelgenerationandthesubsequentreductioninpowersectoremissions.EmberTheFisheries,1MentmoreTerrace,LondonFields,E83PNEmailinfo@ember-climate.orgTwitter@EmberClimateFacebook/emberclimate
VIP
