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2023-10-17
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To move beyond experimentation, leaders are setting bolder

ambitions and linking circular strategies to business objectives.

By Joshua Hinkel, Tessa Bysong, Hernan Saenz, and Jenny Davis-Peccoud

Strategy in a Circular World

At a Glance

`More than half of circularity initiatives are limited to recycling or waste management,

a Bain study shows.

`As industries go circular, proit pools will shift, creating new opportunities.

`Companies that invest early in circular operating models and business models will have a

irst-mover advantage.

For many leadership teams, the transition to circular strategies and business models feels like rolling

a huge stone uphill. They know it’s important, but progress is painfully slow. Initiatives remain narrow

in scope, have limited impact, and are diﬃcult to scale.

Part of the problem is that senior executives operate with a linear mindset. That’s understandable

since today’s businesses were designed for a linear world. But to make the most of circular solutions,

executives need to rethink how they run the business and decouple growth from resource consumption.

That requires operating models and business models designed to preserve materials, increase product

utilization, and extend product life spans (see Figure 1).

It’s a huge break with industry norms and best practices in the past century. Without new business

models and reconﬁgured value chains, operations will remain linear and progress toward circularity

incremental. A recent Bain study of 400 leading organizations found that while 55% had made

commitments to circularity, more than half of the initiatives were conﬁned to recycling or waste

management (see Figure 2). Such eﬀorts are laudable, but they will not spark a circular transformation.

To move beyond such narrow gains, some leaders are setting bolder ambitions, linking circular

strategies to business objectives. Those objectives may include efficient use of resources, supply

chain resilience, new market entry, revenue growth, and environmental sustainability.

These ﬁrms start by analyzing how and where the industry’s proﬁt pools are likely to evolve. That

allows executives to identify strategic opportunities and reimagine products, services, and value

chains for a circular future. Shifting proﬁt pools provide critical context for developing a circular

strategy and for sequencing future investments based on signposts.

New sources of value

How can leadership teams learn to think about their business with a circular mindset when most

executives have spent decades optimizing linear supply chains? The most eﬀective approach is to

view circularity as the foundation of long-term value creation as well as a short-term business goal.

Leading companies are changing their mindset by imagining their industry as circular 15 to 20 years

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StrategyinaCircularWorldTomovebeyondexperimentation,leadersaresettingbolderambitionsandlinkingcircularstrategiestobusinessobjectives.ByJoshuaHinkel,TessaBysong,HernanSaenz,andJennyDavis-PeccoudCopyright©2023Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.StrategyinaCircularWorldAtaGlance`Morethanhalfofcircularityinitiativesarelimitedtorecyclingorwastemanagement,aBainstudyshows.`Asindustriesgocircular,profitpoolswillshift,creatingnewopportunities.`Companiesthatinvestearlyincircularoperatingmodelsandbusinessmodelswillhaveafirst-moveradvantage.Formanyleadershipteams,thetransitiontocircularstrategiesandbusinessmodelsfeelslikerollingahugestoneuphill.Theyknowit’simportant,butprogressispainfullyslow.Initiativesremainnarrowinscope,havelimitedimpact,andaredifficulttoscale.Partoftheproblemisthatseniorexecutivesoperatewithalinearmindset.That’sunderstandablesincetoday’sbusinessesweredesignedforalinearworld.Buttomakethemostofcircularsolutions,executivesneedtorethinkhowtheyrunthebusinessanddecouplegrowthfromresourceconsumption.Thatrequiresoperatingmodelsandbusinessmodelsdesignedtopreservematerials,increaseproductutilization,andextendproductlifespans(seeFigure1).It’sahugebreakwithindustrynormsandbestpracticesinthepastcentury.Withoutnewbusinessmodelsandreconfiguredvaluechains,operationswillremainlinearandprogresstowardcircularityincremental.ArecentBainstudyof400leadingorganizationsfoundthatwhile55%hadmadecommitmentstocircularity,morethanhalfoftheinitiativeswereconfinedtorecyclingorwastemanagement(seeFigure2).Sucheffortsarelaudable,buttheywillnotsparkacirculartransformation.Tomovebeyondsuchnarrowgains,someleadersaresettingbolderambitions,linkingcircularstrategiestobusinessobjectives.Thoseobjectivesmayincludeefficientuseofresources,supplychainresilience,newmarketentry,revenuegrowth,andenvironmentalsustainability.Thesefirmsstartbyanalyzinghowandwheretheindustry’sprofitpoolsarelikelytoevolve.Thatallowsexecutivestoidentifystrategicopportunitiesandreimagineproducts,services,andvaluechainsforacircularfuture.Shiftingprofitpoolsprovidecriticalcontextfordevelopingacircularstrategyandforsequencingfutureinvestmentsbasedonsignposts.NewsourcesofvalueHowcanleadershipteamslearntothinkabouttheirbusinesswithacircularmindsetwhenmostexecutiveshavespentdecadesoptimizinglinearsupplychains?Themosteffectiveapproachistoviewcircularityasthefoundationoflong-termvaluecreationaswellasashort-termbusinessgoal.Leadingcompaniesarechangingtheirmindsetbyimaginingtheirindustryascircular15to20years1StrategyinaCircularWorldFigure1:CircularoperationsmodelsandbusinessmodelscanhelpcompaniesgetbeyondexperimentationCurrentfocusofmostcompaniesAdditionalfocusrequiredReduceRegenerateReuseandRecoveryAnythingrepurposeservicesas-a-servicemodelsTransformTransformmaterialbusinessmodelsmodelsRecycleRepairEnablingCircularservicesmarketplacesRemanufactureandrefurbishSource:Bain&CompanyFigure2:Corporatecircularityinitiativesfocusmainlyonrecyclingandwastemanagement100%CompanieswithcircularitycommitmentsTypesofcircularitycommitmentsNocommitmentsClosedloop5%25%Sustainableinputs10%WithonlyemissionscommitmentsPlasticuse10%20%Reductionofinputs15%WithcircularitycommitmentsRecycledwaste10%55%Relativewastereduction5%Absolutewastereduction20%Recycledorrecyclableinputs25%OthercircularitycommitmentsCircularitycommitmentsrelatedtorecyclingandwastemanagementSource:CompanyreportsandBainanalysis2StrategyinaCircularWorldfromnow.Thatallowsthemtodevelopnewstrategiesandbusinessmodelsforacircularworldandlaunchconcreteactionstodaythataresteppingstonestothefuture.Macroeconomictrendsincludingscarcityofrawmaterials,tradetensions,environmentalregulations,andglobalsupplychaindisruptionsalsoarepromptingleadershipteamstopursuecircularsolutionswithclosedmaterialloops.Inthefuture,companieswilldesignproductsforlongevity,sellproductsasaservice,andbuildonthesharingeconomy.Thesenewbusinessmodelscanboostinnovation,generatenewsourcesofrevenue,andreducecosts.Theywillalsohelpfirmsmanagematerialscarcityandincreasesupplychainresilience(seeFigure3).Leadershipteamsthatanticipatecirculardisruptionwillgainasignificantfirst-moveradvantage.Byinvestingearly,theywillbeabletoinfluencehowprofitpoolsshiftandshapethemtotheiradvantage.Forexample,companiesinvestinginrecyclablePET(polyethyleneterephthalate)bottlesalsoareinvestinginrecyclinginfrastructuretoimprovetheiraccesstocircularfeedstock.Quickerandcheaperaccesstosuchfeedstockswillgivecompaniesanedgeinacircularindustry.Threesourcesofcircularvaluecanhelpexecutivesassessacompany’sefficiencyinusingvirginmaterialsandaproduct’scircularperformance:thevirginmaterialconsumptionrate(relativetototalinputs),productlifespan,andproductcapacityutilization.TheseelementshavebeenwidelyFigure3:CircularbusinessmodelscandelivereconomicbenefitsResourceNextgenerationNewEconomicEnvironmentalefficiencyresilienceconsumersgrowthsustainability28%66%10x$4.5T39%lowermaterialuseoffirmswithcircularhigherrevenuegrowthofpotentialofgreenhouseincircularsupplystrategiesdidnotfaceforinsurgentbrandseconomicgrowthgasemissionschains,decreasingsupplychainissuesscoringhighestonifbusinessescanbecutbydependenceonduetothepandemic...sustainabilitycomparedswitchtoacircularadoptingcircularscarceresourceswithtraditionalbrandsbusinessmodelpractices...vs2%forothersSources:CircleEconomy,TheCircularityGapReport(2021);CircularFlandersandVITOresiliencesurvey,2020,(n=540);BainElementsofValueconsumersurvey,2021(n=8,303);WorldEconomicForum,TheWorldNeedsaCircularEconomy(2020)3StrategyinaCircularWorldusedinenvironmental,social,andgovernance(ESG)researchandreflectageneralizedformoftheKayaidentityequation.Thethreesourcesofcircularvaluealsorepresenttheareasofgreatestpotentialprofitpoolgrowth—anoptimumstartingpointforbuildingacircularstrategy.Companiesmakingdisposableorshort-lifeproducts,suchasplasticbottles,orproductscontainingscarcematerials,suchassmartphones,cancreatecircularvaluebyreducingtheuseofvirginmaterialsandensuringrawmaterialsarerecycledattheendoftheproductlifespan.Forexample,severalfast-fashioncompaniesareinvestinginnewregenerativeandrecyclablefibersandfabricstoachievethesegoals.Companiesthataimtoreducevirginresourceconsumptionmayfindgrowthopportunitiesinreverselogisticsandinfrastructurebusinessesorsupplyingcircularfeedstock.Companiesmakingdisposableorshort-lifeproducts,suchasplasticbottles,orproductscontainingscarcematerials,suchassmartphones,cancreatecircularvaluebyreducingtheuseofvirginmaterialsandensuringrawmaterialsarerecycledattheendoftheproductlifespan.TheCoca-ColaCompanypartneredwithlocalbottlerecyclersandpeoplecollectingwasteinMexicotocreateaclosed-loopecosystemforrecycledPET.Coca-Colaanditspartnersinvestedincriticaltechnologiesforextrudinganddecontaminatingplasticsousedbottlescanbeeasilyreused.ThatworkenabledCoca-Colatolauncha100%recycledPETbottleforitswaterbrandCiel.Leadersarealsoapplyingcircularstrategiestoproductscontainingscarceresources.Apple,forexample,developeddisassemblyrobotstorecoverscarcematerialslikegold,cobalt,tungsten,andrareearthelementsfromusediPhonesandotherproducts.ThecompanyredeploysthecollectedmaterialsinAppleproductsorsellsthemtoothermanufacturers.By2025,Appleaimstouse100%recycledrareearthelementsinallthemagnetsinitsdevices.Extendingaproduct’slifespanisaneffectivestrategyforhigh-valuepremiumproductsthatarebothdurableandeasytodisassemble.Forinstance,Michelinisdevelopingatireretreadbusinessandtire-basedservices.Itplanstoofferfleetmanagementcompaniesretreadtireswitharangeofservicesincludingon-sitemanagerstoperformhealth,safety,andmaintenancechecks.SchneiderElectrichasusedamodulardesignprocesstocreateAltivarprocessdrivesthatcanberefurbished,upgraded,reused,andrecycledattheendofthefirstlifecycle.AccordingtoSchneider,4StrategyinaCircularWorldthemodulardesignincreasesthelifespanoftheproductupto20years.Longerproductlifespans,inturn,willexpandprofitpoolsforspecializeddesignfirms,secondarymarketplaces,andproductauthenticationtechnologies.Companiesthatmakehigh-valueproductsthatrequirefastupgrades(orhaveshortlifespans)canincreaseproductutilizationbyexploringdifferentuses,salesmodels,andbusinessmodels.Increasingproductutilizationcancreategrowthinenablingservicesandplatforms,reverselogisticsandinfrastructure,andservice-and-leasingmodels.DellAPEX,forinstance,offerscustomizedpackagesofhardware,software,andcloudstorageasasubscriptionservice.Dellsaystheprogramgeneratescostsavings,digitalresilience,andefficiencyforthefirmanditscustomers.ArecentstudybyIDCfoundAPEXcustomers’three-yearcostofoperationsdeclinedbyasmuchas39%.SpottheinflectionpointsAkeychallengeisdeterminingwhentoimplementacircularstrategy.Successfulcompaniesanticipatechangestoprofitpoolsandtypicallyinvestaheadofthecompetition,buttheyarealsocarefulnottoinvesttooearly.Togetthetimingright,theseleadersmonitorinflectionpointssuchasdecliningunitproductioncostsandnewregulations,aswellaschangesinconsumerandcustomerbehavior.Suchsignalscanindicateanaccelerationintheshifttocircularity.Forward-lookingexecutivesalsowatchforthedevelopmentofinfrastructuretosupportcircularindustries.Companiesthattrackproductioncostsandadoptionrates,forexample,willbeinabetterpositiontopredictwhencircularmodelsareripeforscaling.Companiesthattrackproductioncostsandadoptionrates,forexample,willbeinabetterpositiontopredictwhencircularmodelsareripeforscaling.Thesefirmswillamongthefirsttoidentifytheinflectionpointswhennewcircularproductsandsolutionsarepoisedtobecomeprofitableandwidelyadopted.Toidentifyinflectionpointsaheadofthecompetition,leaderstracktheexperiencecurve(e-curve)ofnewcircularsolutions.E-curvesshowhowunitproductioncostsdeclinerelativetoincreasedproductionvolume.Companiescanusee-curvestoforecastwhencircularsolutions’productioncostswillreachparitywiththoseoflegacyproductsandservices.5StrategyinaCircularWorldE-curvescanevolveintwoways.Inthefirstscenario,circularsolutionsreachcostparitywithlegacyproducts,acceleratingadoption.Forexample,astheinfrastructuretocollectandsortrecycledPETgrows,thecosttoproducebottleswithrecycledPETnearlymatchesthecostofmanufacturingbottlesusingvirginPET.ThatencouragesconsumerpackagingcompaniestoincreasetheiruseofrecycledPET.Leadersinthesemarketswillseektomovedownthecostcurvefasterbypricinglowtoincreaseadoption.Inthesecondscenario,circularsubstitutescostmorethanlegacyproductsevenaftertheyreachlarge-scaledistribution.Tostimulateadoption,stakeholders(includinggovernments)willneedtoincorporatethecostofexternalfactorssuchastaxesoncarbonemissionsinlegacyproductstohighlightcostparity.Excessivewastelikesingle-useplasticscanbebannedortaxed.Governmentsalsocancreateincentivestousesustainableresourcessuchasgreenaluminumthroughsubsidiesandrebates.Inadditiontoe-curves,leadersalsomonitortheadoptioncurve(s-curve)ofcircularsolutions.S-curvesindicatethelikelihoodandtrajectoryofcustomeradoption.Keysignpostsincludeconsumerawarenessofthecircularalternative,theexistenceofsupportinginfrastructureforcircularservices,availabilityofabroadportfolioofcircularofferings,andcustomers’willingnesstochangebehavior.Forexample,intheelectricvehicleindustry,keysignpostsofconsumeracceptanceincludeOEMs’growingportfolioofelectricmodelsandthedevelopmentofcharginginfrastructure.Identifyinginflectionpointsaheadofthecompetitionallowsleaderstoscaleproductionattherighttimeanddefinethecircularbusinessmodelfortheirvaluechains.Itcanalsohelpincumbentsstayastepaheadofcircularinsurgents—akeyconcernforexecutivesdevelopingcircularstrategies.ChangingmarketdynamicsCompaniesattheforefrontofthecircularityshifthavebegunidentifyingandinvestinginthenewstructuresandprocessesrequiredtoreplacelinearbusinessmodels.Asthesenewmarketdynamicsdevelop,industrieswillbeabletogocircularatafasterpace.Importantly,thedynamicsofcircularitywillalsoshiftprofitpools,negotiatingpower,andsourcesofcontrolthroughoutthevaluechain,creatingnewwinnersandlosers.Importantly,thedynamicsofcircularitywillalsoshiftprofitpools,negotiatingpower,andsourcesofcontrolthroughoutthevaluechain,creatingnewwinnersandlosers.Atruckcompanythatshifts6StrategyinaCircularWorldtoaleasingmodel,forexample,willgaincontrolovervehiclesinthemiddleandattheendoftheirlifespan,whiledealersandserviceproviderslosecontroloverthosepartsofthevaluechain.Eachofthethreebasicsourcesofcircularvaluerequiredifferentstructuresandprocessestobecost-effectivewhendeployedindustrywide.Companieslookingtosignificantlyreducetheuseofvirginmaterials,forexample,willneedsteadyaccesstorecycledfeedstockmaterials.Somewilldeveloptheirownrecyclinginfrastructurewhileotherswillenterpartnerships.Companiesthatdevelopstrategiestodecreasetheuseofvirginmaterialswillalsooverhaultheirdesignprocesstomakerecyclableproducts.Thosethatleadtheshifttorecyclableproductsorprocesseswillhaveacompetitiveedgeasindustriesgocircular.Companiesseekingtosignificantlyextendaproduct’slifespanwilladapttheirbusinessmodelstoengagecustomersafterproductpurchase.Oneoptionistodevelopmodulardesignsthatallowcustomerstomakeeasyupgradesovertime.Cloudserviceproviders,forexample,areaskingequipmentmakerstodesignmodularserverssocomponentscanbereplacedmoreeasily.Companieslookingtoincreaseproductlifespansalsowilldevelopeconomicalrepairoptions,includingright-to-repairguarantees.Toachieveasubstantialincreaseinproductutilization,entireindustriesmayshifttoproduct-as-a-servicebusinessmodels,leadingtochangesinassetownershipandnewfinancingstructures.TechnologyOEMsthatdecidetoleasehardwareinsteadofsellingit,forinstance,willrequiremorecapitaltosupportbiggerbalancesheets.Companiesleadingtheshifttocircularindustrieswilldevelopstrongpartnerecosystemstoimproveaccesstovitalassetsandcapabilities.Thesepartnershipswillexistwithinandoutsideofacompany’svaluechain.Forexample,authorizedtreatmentfacilities(ATFs)suchasscrapyardsareavitalmarketstructureforautoOEMsseekingrecycledcontentandremanufacturedcomponents.LargeATFsintheEuropeanUnioncurrentlycompetefora€150millionprofitpool,whichisforecasttodoubleto€300millionby2030.ManufacturerscanpartnerwithATFstoremanufactureandrefurbishcomponentsfornewcarsandbenefitfromarapidlygrowingmarket.Cross-industrycommunitiessuchastheCircularTransformationofIndustrieslaunchedbyBain&CompanyandtheWorldEconomicForumarehelpingcompaniesexpandtheircircularecosystems.Thesecommunitiesleveragetheexpertiseandnegotiatingpowerofmultiplevaluechainstodevelopthetechnologies,operatingmodels,andpoliciesneededforacirculareconomy.Overthenextdecade,theshifttoacirculareconomywillreconfigureprofitpoolsinalmosteveryindustry.Firstmoverswillgainvaluablecompetitiveadvantagebyenvisioningthechangeaheadofothercompanies,developingacircularstrategy,andrapidlylaunchingcircularbusinessmodelswhentheturningpointcomes.7StrategyinaCircularWorldAsboardsconsidertheshifttocircularbusinessmodels,afewkeyquestionscanhelpfocusthediscussion:•Howwillyourstrategyandoperationsneedtochangeasyoutransitionfromalinearmodeltoacircularone?•Wherecanacircularapproachcreatevalueforthebusiness,suchasnewcustomers,newsourcesofrevenue,improvedsupplychainresilience,oraccesstoscarcesupplyofrawmaterials?•Howiscircularitylikelytoevolveinyourvaluechain,andwhatinflectionpointswillsignalchange?•Wherecanyoustartcollaboratingwithpotentialpartnersinthebroaderecosystem?8userid:73968,docid:142102,date:2023-10-10,sgpjbg.comBoldideas.Boldteams.Extraordinaryresults.Bain&Companyisaglobalconsultancythathelpstheworld’smostambitiouschangemakersdefinethefuture.Across65citiesin40countries,weworkalongsideourclientsasoneteamwithasharedambitiontoachieveextraordinaryresults,outperformthecompetition,andredefineindustries.Wecomplementourtailored,integratedexpertisewithavibrantecosystemofdigitalinnovatorstodeliverbetter,faster,andmoreenduringoutcomes.Our10-yearcommitmenttoinvestmorethan$1billioninprobonoservicesbringsourtalent,expertise,andinsighttoorganizationstacklingtoday’surgentchallengesineducation,racialequity,socialjustice,economicdevelopment,andtheenvironment.WeearnedaplatinumratingfromEcoVadis,theleadingplatformforenvironmental,social,andethicalperformanceratingsforglobalsupplychains,puttingusinthetop1%ofallcompanies.Sinceourfoundingin1973,wehavemeasuredoursuccessbythesuccessofourclients,andweproudlymaintainthehighestlevelofclientadvocacyintheindustry.Formoreinformation,visitwww.bain.com

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