2023世界燃气年中报告（英文版）--国际能源署VIP专享VIP免费

下载本文档

阅读 801
格式 pdf
大小 4.37 MB
约114页
2023-10-28
收藏
点赞(0)
海报
举报

Medium-Term Gas

Report 2023

Including the Gas Market Report, Q4-2023

The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy

issues including oil, gas and coal supply and

demand, renewable energy technologies,

electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to

energy, demand side management and much

more. Through its work, the IEA advocates

policies that will enhance the reliability,

affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31

member countries, 13 association countries and

beyond.

This publication and any map included herein are

without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty

over any territory, to the delimitation of

international frontiers and boundaries and to the

name of any territory, city or area.

Source: IEA.

International Energy Agency

Website: www.iea.org

IEA member countries:

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Republic

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Republic of Türkiye

United Kingdom

United States

The European Commission

also participates in the work

of the IEA

IEA association countries:

Argentina

Brazil

China

Egypt

India

Indonesia

Kenya

Morocco

Senegal

Singapore

South Africa

Thailand

Ukraine

Medium-Term Gas Report 2023

Including the Gas Market Report, Q4-2023

PAGE | 1

Abstract

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Abstract

The energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked

a turning point for global natural gas markets. Growth in global gas

demand is set to slow down significantly over the medium term

(2022-2026). This follows a decade of strong expansion in which

gas contributed around 40% of the growth in primary energy supply

worldwide.

While market tensions eased in the first three quarters of 2023, gas

supplies remain relatively tight and prices continue to experience

strong volatility, reflecting a fragile balance in global gas markets.

High storage levels in the European Union allow for cautious

optimism ahead of the 2023-24 heating season. However, a range

of risk factors could easily renew market tensions. Northwest

Europe will have no access this winter to two sources that used to

be the backbone of its gas supply: Russian piped gas and the

Groningen field in the Netherlands.

The gas supply shock of 2022 reinforced the structural trends that

are weighing on the longer-term prospects for global gas demand.

Overall gas consumption across the mature markets of Asia Pacific,

Europe and North America peaked in 2021 and is set to decline

over the medium term as a result of the rapid deployment of

renewables and improved energy efficiency standards. Demand

growth is almost entirely concentrated in fast-growing Asian

markets and gas-rich countries in Africa and the Middle East.

Strong LNG supply at the end of the forecast period is set to ease

market fundamentals and unlock price sensitive demand in

emerging markets in Asia.

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Gas 2023 Medium-Term

Market Report provides an outlook on the development of global

gas demand and supply until 2026. This year’s report includes a

special spotlight on Africa and the potential for gas to contribute to

regional economic growth and improved energy access. Beyond the

medium-term outlook, the report provides a thorough review of

recent market developments ahead of the 2023-24 winter season in

the Northern Hemisphere. As part of the IEA’s Low-Emission Gases

Work Programme, this year’s report includes a section on the

medium-term outlook for biomethane, low-emissions hydrogen and

e-methane. In addition, a special focus is provided on the

developments in emerging markets.

/114

下载本文档

文本预览下载提示常见问题

Medium-TermGasReport2023IncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYIEAmembercountries:SpainAustraliaSwedenTheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyAustriaSwitzerlandissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyandBelgiumRepublicofTürkiyedemand,renewableenergytechnologies,CanadaUnitedKingdomelectricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoCzechRepublicUnitedStatesenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchDenmarkmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatesEstoniaTheEuropeanCommissionpoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,Finlandalsoparticipatesintheworkaffordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31FranceoftheIEAmembercountries,13associationcountriesandGermanybeyond.GreeceIEAassociationcountries:HungaryThispublicationandanymapincludedhereinareIrelandArgentinawithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyItalyBraziloveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofJapanChinainternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtotheKoreaEgyptnameofanyterritory,cityorarea.LithuaniaIndiaLuxembourgIndonesiaSource:IEA.MexicoKenyaInternationalEnergyAgencyNetherlandsMoroccoWebsite:www.iea.orgNewZealandSenegalNorwaySingaporePolandSouthAfricaPortugalThailandSlovakRepublicUkraineMedium-TermGasReport2023AbstractIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023overthemediumtermasaresultoftherapiddeploymentofAbstractrenewablesandimprovedenergyefficiencystandards.Demandgrowthisalmostentirelyconcentratedinfast-growingAsianTheenergycrisistriggeredbyRussia’sinvasionofUkrainemarkedmarketsandgas-richcountriesinAfricaandtheMiddleEast.aturningpointforglobalnaturalgasmarkets.GrowthinglobalgasStrongLNGsupplyattheendoftheforecastperiodissettoeasedemandissettoslowdownsignificantlyoverthemediumtermmarketfundamentalsandunlockpricesensitivedemandin(2022-2026).ThisfollowsadecadeofstrongexpansioninwhichemergingmarketsinAsia.gascontributedaround40%ofthegrowthinprimaryenergysupplyworldwide.TheInternationalEnergyAgency’s(IEA)Gas2023Medium-TermMarketReportprovidesanoutlookonthedevelopmentofglobalWhilemarkettensionseasedinthefirstthreequartersof2023,gasgasdemandandsupplyuntil2026.Thisyear’sreportincludesasuppliesremainrelativelytightandpricescontinuetoexperiencespecialspotlightonAfricaandthepotentialforgastocontributetostrongvolatility,reflectingafragilebalanceinglobalgasmarkets.regionaleconomicgrowthandimprovedenergyaccess.BeyondtheHighstoragelevelsintheEuropeanUnionallowforcautiousmedium-termoutlook,thereportprovidesathoroughreviewofoptimismaheadofthe2023-24heatingseason.However,arangerecentmarketdevelopmentsaheadofthe2023-24winterseasoninofriskfactorscouldeasilyrenewmarkettensions.NorthwesttheNorthernHemisphere.AspartoftheIEA’sLow-EmissionGasesEuropewillhavenoaccessthiswintertotwosourcesthatusedtoWorkProgramme,thisyear’sreportincludesasectiononthebethebackboneofitsgassupply:Russianpipedgasandthemedium-termoutlookforbiomethane,low-emissionshydrogenandGroningenfieldintheNetherlands.e-methane.Inaddition,aspecialfocusisprovidedonthedevelopmentsinemergingmarkets.Thegassupplyshockof2022reinforcedthestructuraltrendsthatareweighingonthelonger-termprospectsforglobalgasdemand.OverallgasconsumptionacrossthematuremarketsofAsiaPacific,EuropeandNorthAmericapeakedin2021andissettodeclinePAGE1IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023TableofcontentsIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023TableofcontentsExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptions................................................3Gasmarketupdate.....................................................................................15Medium-termmarketoutlook....................................................................37SpotlightonAfrica.....................................................................................75Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongases.......................................87Annex.........................................................................................................104PAGE2IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsPAGE3IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023BeyondtheGoldenAgeofGas:Slowergrowth,highervolatilityandgreateruncertaintyTheperiodbetween2011and2021markedtheGoldenDecadeAsianspotLNGpricesaveraged70%and60%belowtheir2022ofGas:Duringthisperiod,naturalgasconsumptionworldwidelevels,respectively.However,theyhaveremainedwellabovetheirexpandedbycloseto25%andaccountedfor40%ofthegrowthinhistoricalaverages.primaryenergysupplyworldwide–morethananyotherfuel.ThisrapidgrowthwasunderpinnedbyanumberoffactorsincludingtheThesupplysideremainedtightinthefirstthreequartersofavailabilityofrelativelycheapandcost-competitivegassupply,2023,astheadditionalLNGsupply(+11bcm)wasinsufficienttocleanairpoliciesinthefastgrowingmarketsoftheAsiaPacificoffsetthesteepdeclineinRussianpipedgasdeliveriestotheregion,andthescalingupofshaleproductionintheUnitedStates.EuropeanUnion(-38bcm).Inthiscontext,marketsremainedsensitiveandcontinuedtodisplaystrongpricevolatility.InTheenergycrisistriggeredbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraineAugust2023,volatilityontheEuropeanbenchmark(TTFmonth-markedaturningpointforglobalgasmarkets.Whilemarketsaheadcontract)reacheditshighestlevelsinceRussia’sinvasionofmovedtowardsagradualrebalancinginthefirstthreequarters(Q1-Ukraine,asstrikerisksinAustraliaandunplannedoutagesin3)of2023,structurallyhighergaspricespavethewayforaslowerNorwayweighedonthenear-termgassupplyoutlook.andmoreuncertaindemandtrajectory,withgrowthalmostentirelyconcentratedinAsiaandthegas-richmarketsofAfricaandtheIntheEuropeanUnion,storagesitesopenedthe2023-24heatingMiddleEast.Astrongincreaseinliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)seasonat96%offullcapacityand10bcmabovetheirfive-yearproductioncapacitytowardstheendofourforecasthorizonisaverage.Nevertheless,fullstoragesitesarenoguaranteeexpectedtoloosenmarketfundamentalsandeasegassupplyagainstwintervolatility.AshighlightedintheGlobalGasSecuritysecurityconcernsinthesecondhalfofthedecade.Review2023,acoldwintertogetherwithlowerLNGavailabilityandafurtherdeclineinRussianpipedgasdeliveriescouldrenewDespitethegradualrebalancingofgasmarkets,risksandmarkettensions,especiallytowardstheendofthe2023-24winter.uncertaintiesweighontheoutlookforthe2023-24winter.ThesteepTherisksassociatedwiththisneartermoutlookarereflectedindemandreductionsinEuropeanandmatureAsianmarketsin2023thesummer-winterspread,whichaveragedUSD5/MBtuonTTFinhaveeasedmarketfundamentalsandputdownwardpressureonQ2-Q32023.prices.Inthefirstthreequartersoftheyear,EuropeanhubandPAGE4IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023EuropeangaspricesremainedhighlyvolatileinQ32023amidtightsupplyconditionsHistoricalmonthlypricevolatilityontheTTFmonth-aheadcontract(annualised),2016-2023250%200%150%100%50%0%Jan-16Mar-16May-16Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23HistoricalvolatilityIEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonBloomberg(2023).PAGE5IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023standardsandgrowingelectrificationinareassuchasspaceGasmarketsaresetforslowergrowthoverthemedium-term,heatingaresettoweighongasconsumption.InmatureAsiafollowingapeakingasdemandinmaturemarketsin2021Pacificmarkets,improvingnuclearavailabilitytogetherwiththecontinuedexpansionofrenewablesisexpectedtoreducethecallThesupplyshocktriggeredbyRussiacastalongshadowoverongas-firedpowerplantsanddrivedownoverallgasdemand.Ingasmarkets.HighergaspricesarereducingitscompetitivenessNorthAmerica,higheroutputfromrenewableenergyisforecasttovis-à-visotherfuels,whileRussia’ssteepsupplycutsandthelackreducegasusageinpowergeneration,whileimprovedenergyofLNGavailabilityinSouthAsianmarketsdamagedtheimageofefficiencystandardsandagradualelectrificationofheatingaresetnaturalgasasa“reliable”fuel.toshrinktheroleofgasinresidentialandcommercialsectors.Gasdemandgrowthisprojectedtoslowbyalmostathird,fromFaster-growingAsiaPacificmarketsandgas-richcountriesinAfricaanaveragerateof2.5%peryearduring2017-2021to1.6%intheandtheMiddleEastaresettodrivegrowthingasdemand.China2022-2026period.Naturalgasconsumptionisexpectedtoremainaloneaccountsforalmosthalfoftheincreaseinglobalgasbroadlyflatin2023asdemandgainsinAsiaPacificandthedemandovertheforecastperiod,withthepowersector,industrialMiddleEastarealmostentirelyoffsetbythedropsindemandinproductionandcitygasnetworksthemajorconsumers.StrongLNGEurope,CentralAmericaandSouthAmerica.Globalgasdemandissupplyattheendoftheforecastperiodissettoeasemarketexpectedtoreturntomoderategrowthin2024,primarilydrivenfundamentalsandunlocksomepricesensitivedemandinbyAsiaPacificandtheMiddleEast.DemandgrowthisexpecteddevelopingAsianmarketsthathavetheinfrastructureinplace.Intobemorerobustin2025-26,supportedbyhigherLNGtheMiddleEast,productiongrowthinIran,IsraelandSaudiliquefactioncapacityadditionsthanthehistoricalaverage.Arabiaisexpectedtosupporttheexpansionofgas-intensiveindustriesandhighergasburninthepowersector.Africa’sgasThecombinedgasconsumptionofmaturemarketsinAsiademandgrowthisdrivenbyitsrapidlyrisingpopulation,improvingPacific1,EuropeandNorthAmericapeakedin2021andisenergyaccessandeconomicgrowth.Eurasiannaturalgasdemandexpectedtodeclineatarateof1%peryearbetween2022andtrendstowardsstagnation,withtheregion’sgasdemandstanding2026.InEurope,thegascrisisreinforcedthestructuraldrivers2%aboveits2021levelby2026.acceleratingthedeclineingasdemandoverthemediumterm.Anaccelerateddeploymentofrenewables,higherenergyefficiency1Australia,Japan,Korea,NewZealandandSingapore.PAGE6IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023ThestrongincreaseinLNGsupplyin2026isexpectedtoeasemarketfundamentals100Year-on-yearchangeinkeypipednaturalgastradeandglobalLNGsupply,2022–202680Forecast60Y-o-ychangeinbcm4020IEA.CCBY4.0.0-20-40-60-80-10020222023202420252026RussianpipedgastoEuropeOtherpipelineimportstoEuropeRussianpipedgastoChinaCentralAsiatoChinaGlobalLNGsupplyTotaly-o-ychangeIEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE7Medium-TermGasReport2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Naturalgasdemandpeakedinmaturemarketsin2021,withgrowthprospectsincreasinglyconcentratedintheAsiaPacificregionandtheMiddleEastForecastedchangeinnaturalgasdemandbykeyregions,2022–20264400bcm43004200IEA.CCBY4.0.4100400039003800370036003500AsiaPacificEuropeNorthMiddleEastAfricaEurasiaCentralandChinaOtherAsian-matureAmericaSouthmarketsmarketsAmerica2022MaturemarketsGasrichmarketsFastgrowingAsian2026marketsIEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE8Medium-TermGasReport2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023enhanceddialoguebetweenproducersandconsumersonsecurityLNGsupplygrowthisexpectedtodriveanincreasinglyofsupplyissues.TheIEA’sTaskForceonGasandCleanFuelsinterconnectedandglobalisedgasmarketMarketMonitoringandSupplySecurityhasprovidedsuchaplatformsinceOctober2022.GlobalLNGsupplyisexpectedtoexpandby25%(or130bcmayear)between2022and2026,with70%ofthesupplyincreaseLow-emissionsgasesaresettoexpandrapidlyconcentratedin2025-26.Inthiscontext,LNGexportprojectswillbeakeydriverofupstreamdevelopments,assupplyrequirementsforThesupplyoflow-emissionsgasesisexpectedtomorethandoubleLNGfeedgasaccountforaround55%ofthenetincreaseinglobaloverthemediumterm,resultinginanincreaseofover8bcmingasoutputintheforecastperiod.absoluteterms.EuropeandNorthAmericaaresettodrivethisexpansionandtocontributefor70%oftheoverallgrowth.TheTheUnitedStatesaloneissettocontributeforaroundhalfofdevelopmentoflow-emissionsgasesinthesemarketsbenefitsfromincrementalLNGsupply,reinforcingitspositionastheworld’sawiderangeofpolicies,increasinglysophisticatedsubsidylargestLNGexporter.Consequently,theshareoftheUnitedStatesschemesandwell-developed,interconnectedgasnetworks.inglobalLNGsupplyissettoincreasefrom20%in2022tooverNevertheless,furthereffortswillberequiredtoreachtheambitious25%by2026.ConsideringthecontractualtermsunderpinningUStargetssetforbiomethaneandlow-emissionshydrogen.BesidesLNGsupply(hub-indexedpricingmechanismsanddestination-freeEuropeandNorthAmerica,anumberofemerginglow-emissionsshippingarrangements),theliquidityandtheflexibilityofglobalLNGgasproducersareexpectedtoscaleuptheiroutput.tradeissettoincreaseoverthemedium-term.Biomethaneproductionisexpectedtoexpandbyover65%(or4.5LiquidityintheLNGmarketwillallowforamoreeffectivebcm)between2022and2026,accountingforalmost55%oftheresponsetoshort-termsupplyand/ordemandshocks,resultinginatotalincreaseinlow-emissionsgasesduringthisperiod.Low-moreresilentglobalgasmarket.Regionalmarketsaresettoemissionshydrogenisprojectedtogrowatanaveragerateofbecomeincreasinglyinterdepedent.LiquidityintheLNGmarketcloseto25%peryearbetween2022and2026,translatingintocaneasemarkettensionsinregionsfacingtightsupply-demandalmost4bcmequivalentofadditionalsupplyby2026.Incontrast,e-fundamentals.However,thisalsomeansthateventsthatinducemethanestrugglestotakeoffovertheforecastperiod,requiringapricevolatilityinoneregioncouldimpactpricefluctuationsandconcentratedeffortbetweenemergingproducersandconsumerstosupply-demanddynamicsingeographicallydistantmarkets.Anestablishviablesupplychainsandeffectivesupportmechanisms.increasinglyglobalisedmarketwillreinforcetheneedforPAGE9IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023LNGfeedgassupplyrequirementsaccountforaround55%ofthenetincreaseinglobalgasoutputintheforecastperiodKeydriversbehindofnaturalproductiongrowth,Keydriversbehindofnaturalproductiongrowth,2017–20212022–2026(forecast)LocalconsumptionLong-distancepipelinetradeLNGfeedgasrequirementsPAGE10IEA.CCBY4.0.IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsKeyassumptionsbehindthemedium-termforecastTheglobalenergycrisistriggeredbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraineShort-termindicatorsareconfirmingthisgeneralslowdowninledtoaprofoundreconfigurationoftheglobalgasmarket.Thiseconomicgrowth.IntheUnitedStates,theManufacturingmedium-termforecastissubjecttoanunusuallywiderangeofPurchasingManagers’Index(PMI)averaged47duringQ1-Q3uncertaintiesstemmingfromthebroadergeopoliticaland2023,indicatingacontractioninmanufacturingactivity.RealGDPmacroeconomicenvironment.growthintheUnitedStatesisexpectedtoslowtoanaverageof1.5%peryearbetween2023and2026.IntheEuroarea,theMacroeconomicoutlook:TowardsslowergrowthManufacturingPMIstoodat45duringQ1-Q32023anddroppedto42.7inJuly–itslowestlevelinthreeyears.RealGDPgrowthintheFollowingadropof3.1%in2020,globalrealGDPgrewby6.4%inEuropeanUnionisforecasttoaverage1.4%peryearbetween20232021.Thisstrongperformancewaspartlysupportedbytheand2026.InChina,manufacturingactivityandconsumptionrecoveryincommercialandindustrialactivityaftertheCovid-reboundedatthestartof2023whenauthoritieseasedtheirstrictinducedlockdowns,whengovernmentsandcentralbankslaunchedlockdownpolicies.Nevertheless,weakexportdemandtogetherwithmajorfiscalandmonetarystimuluspackages.GlobalGDPgrowththeongoingrealestatedownturnisweighingoneconomicslowedto3.3%in2022amidtheunfoldingglobalenergycrisis,performance.China’sManufacturingPMIstoodat50inQ1-Q3soaringcommoditypricesandrapidlyrisingconsumerprices.In2023andthecountry’sGDPgrowthisexpectedtoaveragejustresponsetotheinflationarypressures,centralbanksadoptedbelow4.5%between2023and2026–wellbelowthe6.6%averagetightermonetarypoliciesbyraisingtheirinterestrates.Thisingrowthrateexperiencedbetween2016and2019.turnincreasedthecostofborrowingandissettoweighoneconomicactivityduring2023and2024.GlobalGDPgrowthisNaturalgaspricesareexpectedtoremainabovetheirhistoricalsettofallbelow3%in2023andto2.6%in2024–itslowestaveragesannualratesincethe2007-2008globalfinancialcrisis,withtheexceptionofthe2020pandemicperiod.ImprovingeconomicThisforecastreliesonexternalenergypriceassumptionsbasedonperformanceandmonetaryeasingisexpectedtotranslateintothefutures’marketpricesobservedattheendofSeptemberstrongerGDPgrowthinthesecondhalfoftheforecastperiod2023.EuropeanhubandAsianspotLNGpricesrosetoall-timeandaverage3.4%between2025and2026.highsin2022amidthesupplyshocktriggeredbyRussia.InPAGE11IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsEurope,TTFspotpricesstoodatUSD37/MBtuin2022,morethanterm,especiallyinsectorswheregasisfacingstiffcompetitionfromseventimestheiraveragebetween2016and2020.InAsia,JKMotherfuels,suchaspowergenerationandroadtransport.pricesfollowedasimilartrajectoryandaveragedclosetoUSD34/MBtu.GasmarketshavemovedtowardsagradualRussianpipedgasflowstotheEuropeanUnionrebalancingsincethestartof2023duetotimelypolicyaction,effectivelyworkingmarketforcesandfavourableweatherThefutureofRussianpipedgasdeliveriestotheEuropeUnionisaconditions.Naturalgaspricescouldstrengthenagainin2024keyuncertaintyinourforecast.Theymorethanhalvedin2022,amidtightersupply–demandfundamentals.Forwardcurvesindicatedroppingfromalmost140bcmin2021tojustabove60bcm.thatTTFandJKMpricesareexpectedtoincreasebyaround10%Consideringcurrentflowprofiles,RussianpipedgasdeliveriesareandoscillateinarangebetweenUSD14-15/MBtuin2024.settodeclinebyaround65%in2023towithinarangeof20-However,thestart-upofnewLNGliquefactionterminalsand25bcm.Russia’sgastransitcontractwithUkraineissettoexpireatimprovingsupplyfundamentalsaresettoprovidedownwardtheendof2024.Ukraine’senergyministerhasruledoutthepressureonTTFandAsianspotLNGpricesduringthesecondpossibilityofextendingthecontract,followingRussia’sinvasionofhalfoftheforecastperiodtoaverageUSD13/MBtuin2025andthecountry.Hence,thisforecastassumesthatonlyTurkStream2026.Thiswouldstillbemorethandoubletheaveragepricelevelsstring2(15.75bcm/yr)willsupplyRussianpipedgastotheseenbetween2016and2020.Oil-indexedLNGpricesareEuropeanUnionstartingfrom2025.Whileshort-termcapacityassumedtodisplayalessvolatilepatternovertheforecastperiodbookingoptionsmightcontinuetobeavailablealongtheUkrainianandaverageUSD12/MBtubetween2023and2026–30%abovetransitrouteforEuropeanimportersofRussianpipedgas,thistheirlevelsbetween2016and2020.IntheUnitedStates,Henryupsidepotentialisnotincludedinourbaselineforecast.HubpricesrosetooverUSD6/MBtuin2022,theirhighestlevelsince2008.ForwardcurvesindicatethatHenryHubpricesareWeatherexpectedtohoverataroundUSD2.7/MBtuin2023andstrenghtentoanaverageclosetoUSD4/MBtuduring2024-2026–40%aboveNaturalgasconsumptionisparticularlysensitivetotheweather,thelevelsexperiencedbetween2016and2020.notablytemperature;thisforecastisbasedontheassumptionofaveragewinterconditions(typicallybasedonrollingfive-yearNaturalgaspricestrendingabovetheirhistoricalaverageareaverages)fortheforthcomingheatingseasons.expectedtoweighonnaturalgasdemandgrowthoverthemediumPAGE12IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsGlobalGDPgrowthisexpectedtoslowovertheforecastperiodForecastGDPgrowth,globalandregional,2018-20268%Y-o-ychange(%)6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%AfricaAsiaPacificNorthAmericaEurasiaCentralandSouthAmericaMiddleEastEuropeWorld201820192020202120222023202420252026IEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEA,IMFandOxfordEconomics.PAGE13IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023ExecutivesummaryandkeyassumptionsForwardcurvessuggestthatnaturalgaspriceswillremainabovetheirhistoricalaveragesinthemediumtermNaturalgaspriceassumptionsacrosskeyregions,2016-2026702021/22gassupplyshockUSD/MBtu60504030ForwardcurvesasatendofSeptember2023LimitednewLNGcapacity20NewLNGwaveCovid-induceddemandshock100Jan-16Oil-indexedpricerangeHenryHubTTFJKMOct-16Jul-17HenryHub-futuresTTF-futuresJKM-futuresApr-18Jan-19IEA.CCBY4.0.Oct-19Jul-20Apr-21Jan-22Oct-22Jul-23Apr-24Jan-25Oct-25Jul-26IEA.CCBY4.0.Note:FuturepricesarebasedonforwardcurvesasoftheendofSeptember2023anddonotrepresentapriceforecast.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonCME(2023),HenryHubNaturalGasFuturesQuotes,DutchTTFNaturalGasMonthFuturesSettlements,LNGJapan/KoreaMarker(Platts)FuturesSettlements;EIA(2023),HenryHubNaturalGasSpotPrice;Powernext(2023),SpotMarketData;S&PGlobal(2023),PlattsConnect.PAGE14Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023IEA.CCBY4.0.GasmarketupdatePAGE15Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023NaturalgasdemandreturnedtomoderategrowthinQ2-Q3inAsiaandNorthAmerica…Globalgasconsumptioncontractedbyanestimated1.5%y-o-yconsumptionrosebyaround7%y-o-yinQ1-Q32023,supportedby(or65bcm)in2022–comparabletodemanddropsseenin2009theindustrialandpowersectors.Thecountry’sLNGimportsrosebyintheaftermathofthefinancialcrisis,orduringtheglobalCovid-19closeto15%overthesameperiod.Incontrast,gasdemandpandemicin2020.Firstdataindicatethatthisdownwardtrendcontinuedtodeclineintheregion’smaturegasmarkets(JapanandcontinuedinQ12023,whengasconsumptiondeclinedinallkeyKorea)amiddepressedelectricityconsumptionandimprovingmarketsduetothecontinuedimpactofhighpricesongasuseinnuclearavailability.theindustrialandpowersectorsandunseasonablymildweatherconditions.NaturalgasdemandreturnedtomoderategrowthinInNorthAmerica,naturalgasdemandincreasedbyamere1%(orQ2-Q3inNorthAmericaandtherapidlygrowingmarketsofthe8bcm)inQ1-Q32023.WhileresidentialandcommercialdemandAsiaPacific,whileconsumptioncontinuedtodeclineinEurope.declinedamidanunseasonablymildQ1,gasuseinthepowersectorcontinuedtogrowstronglyoncontinuedcoal-to-gasOECDEuroperecordedadropof9%(or33bcm)y-o-yinQ1-Q3switchingdynamics.InCentralandSouthAmericanaturalgas2023.Thiswasprimarilydrivenbylowerresidentialandcommercialdemanddroppedby4%(or3bcm)inH12023amidlowergasburndemandinQ1andasteepdeclineingasburninthepowersectorinthepowersector.duringQ2andQ3.ThepowersectoremergedasthemostimportantdriverbehindEurope’sgasdemandreduction,accountingGlobalgassupplyissettoremaintightin2023,asincrementalforover55%ofEurope’stotalgasdemanddeclineinQ1-Q32023.LNGsupply(18bcm)willnotbesufficienttooffsettheexpectedPreliminarydataindicatethatgasuseinindustrycontinuedtodropinRussia’spipedgasdeliveriestotheEuropeUnion(adeclinedeclineduringH12023,startingtorecoverinQ3–albeitremainingofover35bcm).Consideringthetightgassupplypicturein2023,wellbelowitspre-crisislevels.globalgasdemandisexpectedtoremainbroadlyflatin2023.MostofthedemandgrowthisprojectedtobedrivenbytheNaturalgasdemandintheAsiaPacificregionincreasedbyanAsiaPacificregionandtheMiddleEast;however,thisgrowthisestimated2.5%(or12bcm)inthefirsteightmonthsof2023,asthealmostentirelyoffsetbythedemanddropsinEuropeandCentraldeclinesrecordedinQ1weremorethanoffsetbyrisingandSouthAmerica.Thisshort-termforecastissubjecttoanconsumptionduringQ2-Q3.Demandgrowthislargelyconcentratedunusuallywiderangeofuncertainties,stemmingfromtheinChina.Preliminarydataindicatethatthecountry’sestimatedgasbroadergeopoliticalandmacro-economicenvironment.PAGE16IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023…whileEuropeangasconsumptionremainsdepressedQuarterlychangeinnaturalgasdemandinkeyregions,2022-202340Y-o-ychangeinbcm20IEA.CCBY4.0.0-20-40202220222022202320232023Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q32022Q1OECDEuropeAsia-selectedmarketsNorthAmericaY-o-ychangeinbcmIEA.CCBY4.0.China,India,JapanandKorea.PAGE17Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023NorthAmericangasdemandgrowthissettoslowandpeakin2023beforedecliningin2024NaturalgasconsumptioninNorthAmericaincreasedbyangasswitchinginthepowersector.Thisincreasewasalmostentirelyestimated1%(or8bcm)y-o-yinQ1-Q32023,primarilysupportedoffsetbya9%y-o-ydeclineinresidentialandcommercialgasbyhighergasburninthepowersector.demand.Mexico’sestimatednaturalgasconsumptionincreasedby2%(or1bcm)y-o-yinthefirsteightmonthsof2023.IntheUnitedStates,naturalgasdemandrosebyanestimated0.8%(or5bcm)inQ1-Q32023,withgrowthentirelydrivenbytheInthisforecast,NorthAmericangrowthinnaturalgasdemandispowersector.Preliminarydataindicatethatgas-to-powerdemandexpectedtoexperienceaslowdownandtopeakin2023withexpandedby6%(or16bcm)inQ1-Q3amidlowerhydrooutputandgrowthcloseto1%,followedbyadeclinein2024triggeredbytheattheexpenseofcoal-firedgeneration(downalmost20%y-o-y).contractionofgasdemandforpowergenerationintheConsequently,theshareofnaturalgasinthepowergenerationmixUnitedStates.rosefrom34%inJanuary2021tomorethan45%inAugust2023–itshighestmonthlyaverageonrecord.Bytheendoftheyear,atotalof16gas-firedpowerplantsareexpectedtocomeonline,amountingto8.4GWofadditionalcapacity.Incontrast,naturalgasconsumptionintheresidentialandcommercialsectorcontractedbymorethan6%(or10bcm)y-o-yinQ1-Q32023amidunseasonablymildweatherinJanuary-April.Naturalgasdemandinindustrydeclinedby1%(or2bcm)y-o-yinQ1-Q32023duetosubduedeconomicactivity.TheUSManufacturingPurchasingManagers’Index(PMI)averaged47inQ1-3,indicatingacontractioninmanufacturingactivity.NaturalgasconsumptioninCanadaincreasedbyanestimated2%(or1.5bcm)y-o-yinQ1-32023.Naturalgasdemandinthepowerandindustrialsectorsgrewby5%y-o-yinH12023duetocoal-to-PAGE18IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-20238%USgasconsumptionincreasedby0.8%y-o-yinQ1-Q320236%4%Estimatedquarterlychangeingasdemand,UnitedStates,2021-20232%0%20Y-o-ychangeinbcm-2%Y-o-ychangein%15-4%10IEA.CCBY4.0.202120212021202220222022202220232023-6%Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2-8%520230Q3-5-10-15-202021Q1ResidentialandcommercialPowerIndustryOthersY-o-ychangeSources:IEAanalysisbasedonEIA(2023),NaturalGasConsumption;NaturalGasWeeklyUpdate.PAGE19Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023LowergasburninthepowersectorcontinuedtoweighonnaturalgasdemandinCentralandSouthAmericaFollowinga3%declinein2022,naturalgasconsumptionremainedgasimportsfromBoliviaby15%(or0.2bcm)y-o-y,whileitsLNGdepressedinCentralandSouthAmericainH12023.Firstinflowsdroppedby80%(or2bcm)y-o-yinthefirsthalfof2023.estimatesindicatethattheregion’sgasdemandfellby4%(or3bcm)y-o-yinH12023amidlowergasburninthepowersector.Severalothercountriesintheregionexperiencedsimilardeclines.InTrinidadandTobagonaturalgasproductionremainedbroadlyInArgentina,theregion’slargestgasmarket,gasdemandfellbyflatinH12023comparedwiththesameperiodin2022.The2%(or0.5bcm)y-o-yinthefirstsevenmonths2023accordingtocountry’sLNGexportsrosebycloseto10%y-o-y,suggestingthatpreliminarydata.Thisdeclinewasalmostentirelydriventhedomesticgasconsumptiondeclinedbyover5%(or0.4bcm)y-o-yresidentialandcommercialsectors,wheregasusedroppedbyoverduringH12023.InVenezuelaobservedgasconsumption12%(or0.9bcm)y-o-yamidmilderweatherconditions.Incontrast,decreasedby7%(or0.6bcm)y-o-yinH12023.InColombiagasgasdemandinindustrygrewby5%y-o-y,whilegasburninthedemanddeclinedby3%(or0.22bcm)y-o-yinthefirsteightmonthspowersectorincreasedbycloseto2%y-o-y.of2023,primarilydrivenbylowergasburninthepowersector(downby17%y-o-y).Gasdemandinindustrydeclinedby5%y-o-y,InBrazil,gasconsumptioncontinuedtodeclinesteeplyandlargelyoffsetbyhighergasuseinrefining(upby10%).Gasdroppedbyover10%(or2.2bcm)y-o-yinthefirsteightmonthsofconsumptionintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsincreasedby2023,primarilydrivenbylowergasburninthepowersector.This2%y-o-y.Theregion’ssmallermarketsdisplayedvarieddemanddecreasedby30%(or5TWh)y-o-yinthefirsteightmonthsofpatternsoverthefirsteightmonths2023,notsufficienttooffsetthe2023.ThedeclinewasalmostentirelyconcentratedinQ12023,declinesrecordedinthefivelargestgasmarkets.whengas-to-powerdemandplummetedbycloseto60%y-o-yamidhigherhydroavailability.Gas-firedgenerationreturnedtogrowthinTakingintoaccountthedeclinesinH1andassumingaverageQ2amidlowerhydrooutput.Gasburninthepowersectorweatherconditionsfortheremainderoftheyear,thisforecastincreasedby10%(or0.7TWh)y-o-yduringtheApril-Augustperiod.expectsnaturalgasdemandinCentralandSouthAmericatoAsaconsequenceoflowergasdemand,Brazilreduceditspipeddeclinebycloseto2%in2023amiddepressedgasburninthepowersectorandaslowdownineconomicgrowth.PAGE20IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Naturalgasdemanddeclinedby4%inCentralandSouthAmericainH12023Monthlynaturalgasconsumption,CentralandSouthAmerica,2022andH1202314bcm12IEA.CCBY4.0.1086420JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJ20222023ArgentinaBrazilVenezuelaTrinidadandTobagoColombiaChilePeruOtherIEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonANP(2023),BoletimMensaldaProduçãodePetróleoeGásNatural;BMC(2023),InformesMensuales;CentralBankofTrinidadandTobago(2023),Statistics;CNE(2023),GeneraciónbrutaSEN;ENARGAS(2023),DatosAbiertos;ICIS(2023),ICISLNGEdge;IEA(2023),MonthlyGasDataService;JODI(2023),GasDatabase;MME(2023),BoletimMensaldeAcompanhamentodaIndustriadeGásNatural;OSINERG(2023),Reportediariodelaoperacióndelossistemasdetransportedegasnatural.PAGE21Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023AsiangasdemandreturnedtomoderategrowthinQ2-Q32023…Followinga2%declinein2022,naturalgasdemandintheaddition,citygassalestocommercialandindustrialconsumersAsiaPacificregionreturnedtomoderategrowthduringQ2-Q3decreasedby2%and11%y-o-yrespectivelyinthefirstseven2023.WhilegasconsumptioninChinaandcertainemergingAsianmonthsof2023.Forthefullyearof2023Japan’sgasdemandismarketshasbeenontherise,demandremainsdepressedintheforecasttodecreaseby6%comparedwithlastyear.Thisdeclineisregion’smaturemarketsamidimprovingnuclearavailability.Forthemainlydrivenbythepowersector,reflectinghighernuclearpowerfullyearof2023Asiangasdemandisprojectedtoincreaseby3%,generation.Korea’sgasconsumptionfellby1%y-o-yinthefirstsupportedbythepowerandindustrialsectors.sevenmonthsof2023amidlowergasuseinthepowersectorandcitygassegments.Forthefullyearof2023,Korea’sgasdemandisFollowingitsfirstdemanddropinfourdecadesin2022,China’sexpectedtodecreaseby2%duetohighernuclearpoweroutput.naturalgasconsumptionreturnedtogrowthinQ12023.Preliminarydataindicatethatthecountry’sestimatedgasconsumptionrosebyIndia’sprimarygassupplyroseby2%inthefirsteightmonthsofaround7%(or18bcm)y-o-yinQ1-Q32023.Industrialgasdemand2023,accordingtothePetroleumPlanning&AnalysisCell.rosebyover3%y-o-yinH12023,supportedbyarecoveryinDemandgrowthisprimarilysupportedbythepower,petrochemicaleconomicactivity.Gas-to-powerdemandsurgedbymorethan10%andfertilisersectors.Forthefullyearof2023,India’snaturalgasy-o-y,ashigherelectricitydemandtogetherwithlowerhydrooutputdemandisexpectedtoincreaseby4%,drivenbytheindustrialandincreasedthecallongas-firedpowerplants.Thecitygassegmentpowersectors.EmergingAsia’sgasconsumptionincreasedbyanrosebyaround7%y-o-yduetogrowinggaspenetration.Fortheestimated2%y-o-yinthefirstsevenmonthsof2023,amidlowerfullyearof2023,China’sgasdemandisprojectedtoincreasebyLNGspotprices.Thailandrecorded4%y-o-ygrowthinthefirstover7%,ledbytheindustrialandpowersectors.sevenmonthsof2023,primarilydrivenbyhighergasburninthepowersector.BangladeshandPakistanincreasedtheirLNGJapan’sgasconsumptiondecreasedby11%(or7bcm)inthefirstimportsby14%and6%y-o-yinQ1-Q32023,respectively.Thissevenmonthsof2023.Gas-to-powerdemanddeclinedby16%(orindicatesagradualrecoveryinthetwocountries’gasdemand,about3bcm)y-o-yinthefirstfourmonthsof2023.Thiswasdrivenbyhighergasuseinindustryandthepowersector.In2023primarilydrivenbylowerelectricityconsumption(downby5%y-o-y)gasdemandinemergingAsiaisprojectedtoincreasebyamodestandimprovingnuclearavailability.Japan’snuclearpoweroutput3%,supportedbygrowingeconomicactivityandpowerdemand.roseby53%(or18TWh)y-o-yinthefirsteightmonthsof2023.InPAGE22IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023…primarilydrivenbyChinaandemergingAsiaEstimatedquarterlychangeingasdemand,selectedAsianmarkets,2021-20232015%Y-o-ychangeinbcmY-o-ychangein%IEA.CCBY4.0.1510%105%500%-5-5%-10-10%-15ChinaJapanKoreaIndiaOthersTotalY-o-ychange-20202120212022-15%Q3Q4Q120212021202220222022202320232023Q1Q2Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3IEA.CCBY4.0.OtherscompriseIndonesia,Malaysia,thePhilippines,SingaporeandThailand.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonICIS(2023),ICISLNGEdge;CQPGX(2023),NanbinObservation;JODI(2023),GasWorldDatabase;PPAC(2023),GasConsumption;EPPO(2023),EnergyStatistics;KoreaEnergyEconomicsInstitute(2023),MonthlyEnergyStatistics;MinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustryofJapan(2023),METIStatistics.PAGE23Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023ThepowersectordrivesdownEuropeangasdemandin2023NaturalgasconsumptioninOECDEuropefellbyover9%(orThissteepdeclinewasdrivenbyacombinationoffactors.Subdued33bcm)y-o-yduringQ1-Q32023.Over60%ofthisdemandactivityinenergy-intensiveindustriestogetherwithcontinuedreductionoccurredinQ1whenEuropeangasconsumptionfellbyimprovementsinenergyefficiencyandbehaviouralchanges12%(or21bcm)y-o-y,primarilydrivenbylowergasuseinthedepressedelectricityconsumption,whichfellbyanestimated5%residentialandcommercialsectors.Thepaceofdemandreduction(or58TWh)y-o-yinQ2-Q3.Inaddition,strongerrenewablepowermoderatedtoa7%(or12bcm)y-o-ydeclineinQ2-Q32023.Loweroutput(upby8%)andimprovingnuclearavailabilityinFrance(upgasburninthepowersectoraccountedfortheentiregasdemandby25%)furtherreducedthecallongas-firedpowerplants.Gasreductionduringthisperiod,amidlowerelectricityconsumptionanddemandinindustrydeclinedbyanestimated3%(or3bcm)inQ1-strongerrenewablepoweroutput.Q3.FirstdataindicatethatfollowingthesteepreductionsrecordedinQ1,industrialgasconsumptionstayedclosetolastyear’slevelsDistributionnetwork-relateddemandfellbyanestimated9%(orinQ2andincreasedby10%y-o-yinQ3.Whilelowergasprices12bcm)y-o-yinQ1-Q32023,withover80%ofthecontractionsupportgraduallyimprovingactivityingas-intensiveindustries,concentratedinQ1.Despiteacolderspring,gasdemandintheindustrialgasdemandremains15%belowitsQ32021levels.residentialandcommercialsectorscontinuedtodeclineinQ2,drivenbynon-weather-relatedfactors.TheyincludeefficiencyForthefullyearof2023,OECDEurope’sgasdemandisforecastgains,administratedgas-savingmeasures,fuelswitching,todeclineby7%.Thisisprimarilydrivenbylowergasburninthedeploymentofheatpumps,behaviouralchangesandrisingpowersector,whichisexpectedtodeclineby15%amidrapidlyaffordabilityissues.Preliminarydataindicatethatdistributionexpandingrenewablesandlowerelectricityconsumption.Gasusenetwork-relateddemandroseby4%(orover0.5bcm)inQ3,driveninindustryisprojectedtoremainclosetolastyear’slevels,aslowerbythecommercialandservicesectors.pricesenabledemandrecoveryinH22023.Consideringthedeclinesintheyeartodate,demandintheresidentialandGas-to-powerdemanddroppedbyanestimated16%(or18bcm)commercialsectorsisexpectedtofallby3%in2023.In2024y-o-yinQ1-Q32023andaccountedforover55%ofEurope’stotalEuropeangasdemandisforecasttogrowbyamoderate2%,asgasdemandreductionoverthisperiod.Gasburninthepowertheexpecteddeclineingas-to-powerdemandisoffsetbyhighersectordroppedbycloseto20%(or17bcm)y-o-yinQ2-Q32023.gasuseintheresidential,commercialandindustrialsectors.PAGE24IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Europeangasconsumptiondroppedbyover9%inQ1-Q32023Estimatedquarterlychangeingasdemand,OECDEurope,2021-20233525%Y-o-ychangeinbcmY-o-ychangein%2820%IEA.CCBY4.0.2115%1410%75%00%-7-5%-14-10%-21-15%-28-20%-35-25%20212021202120212022202220222022202320232023Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3ResidentialandcommercialPowerIndustryY-o-ychangeIEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonEnagas(2023),NaturalGasDemand;ENTSOG(2023),TransparencyPlatform;EPIAS(2023),TransparencyPlatform;TradingHubEurope(2023),Aggregatedconsumption.PAGE25Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023USnaturalgasproductionincreasedbycloseto6%inQ1-Q32023DrynaturalgasproductionintheUnitedStatesincreasedbyanInNortheastTexasandLouisiana,theHaynesvillepuregasshaleestimated5%y-o-y(about32bcm)inthefirstninemonthsof2023.playprovidedfurthersupporttoUSgasproductiongrowthwithaOnaverage,dailyoutputremainedabovethe100Bcfthreshold(or13%y-o-yincreaseinthefirsteightmonthsof2023.Whiledrilling2.8bcm/d).Naturalgasproductiongrowthslowedfroma5%y-o-yactivityshowedacontractionof5%inAugust2023comparedwithincreaseinQ1-2to2%inQ32023.thepreviousyear,wellscompletedincreasedbycloseto30%y-o-y.InMay2023thecompletionoftheAcadianHaynesvilleExtensionThesignificantgrowthinnaturalgasproductionwasprimarilyduetopipelineadded400Mcf/d(or4bcm/yr)oftakeawaycapacitytoanincreaseintheoutputofassociatedgasproductionfromoil-meetthegrowingneedforfeedgasinLouisiana.drivenshaleplays.ThePermianBasin,thelargestsourceofassociatednaturalgas,grewitsoutputby10%y-o-yduringJanuaryGasproductionfromtheAppalachianBasinrecoveredfromantoJuly2023,whenitreachedanall-timehighof17.1Bcf/d(orinitialcontractioninthefirsthalfoftheyear,anddisplaying0.5%y-0.48bcm/d).ThePermianBasinaloneaccountedfor30%ofo-ygrowthinJuly2023.AppalachiaaloneaccountedforalmostincrementalnaturalgasproductionintheUnitedStatesoverthefirst30%oftotalUSproductioninQ1-Q32023.Additionaltakeawayeightmonthsof2023.Thisexpansionistheresultofsustainedcapacityisexpectedtoeasemidstreampipelineconstraints.Thedrillingactivityintheregion,with466wellsdrilledonaverageperMountainValleyPipelineisexpectedtobecommissionedbythemonthin2023,or8.3%morey-o-ythaninJuly2022.Additionally,endof2023/early2024andwouldadd20bcm/yroftransmissionotherplayssuchastheEagleFord,theWoodfordandtheBakkencapacityfromnorthwesternWestVirginiatosouthernVirginia.Theplayscontributedtothedevelopmentofassociatedgasoutput.ThefirstphaseoftheRegionalEnergyAccessProject(0.83Bcf/dordebottleneckingofthePermianBasinwillbecrucialtofurther8.5bcm/yr)isforeseentoentercommercialserviceinQ42023.expansionofsalesgasproduction.In2023severalpipelineexpansionprojectsareexpectedtobecompleted.ThePermianWeforecastgrowthinUSnaturalgasproductiontoslowduringtheHighwayPipeline,theWhistlerPipelineandtheGulfCoastExpressremainderoftheyearduetotherelativelyhighstoragelevelsandcouldadd17bcm/yroftakeawaycapacitybytheendof2023.anexpecteddeclineindomesticdemand.Forthefullyearof2023,USnaturalgasoutputisforecasttogrowbyaround2%.PAGE26IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023ThePermianBasinaccountedfor30%ofincrementalUSgasproductioninQ1-Q32023Gasproductionbytype,UnitedStates,2018-2023105TotalUSgas(Bcf/d)AppalachianBasin100Otherdryshale100PermianBasin8095Otherassociatedbcmshale601089000120.090OtherproductionIEA.CCBY4.0.100.056700080.0TotalUSgas4023400060.040.085Pipelineimports(net)10020.00.0TotalUSgas(bcf/d)JJNASFJDM208020182019202020210JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJAS75201820192020202120222023Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonEIA(2023),NaturalGasData;NaturalGasWeeklyUpdate.PAGE27Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Europe’sprimarynaturalgassupplytightenedfurtherinQ1-Q32023Europe’stotalgassupplydroppedbyanestimated13%(or54bcm)Netherlands,withthephase-outoftheGroningenfield.Pipelinegasy-o-yinQ1-Q32023.LowerpipelineflowsfromRussia,togetherdeliveriesfromNorthAfricadeclinedby2%(or0.5bcm)y-o-y,withwiththeongoingdeclineindomesticoutputandhighermaintenanceflowstoIberiafallingby14%(or1bcm)andthosetoItalyrisingbyinNorway,depressedtheavailabilityofprimarygassupply.LNG3%(or0.5bcm).GasflowsfromAzerbaijanviatheTransAdriaticinflowsincreasedby2.5%y-o-yinQ1-Q32023andaccountedforpipelineroseby2%(or0.2bcm)y-o-yduringQ1-Q32023.almost40%ofEurope’stotalgasconsumption,asharesimilartothatofRussia’spipedgasbeforeitsinvasionofUkraine.Europe’sLNGimportsincreasedby8%(or7bcm)y-o-yinH12023.ContinueddemandreductionstogetherwithhighstorageRussianpipedgasexportstoOECDEuropefellbyanestimatedlevelsweighedonEuropeanLNGimportsinQ3,leadingtoa60%(or42bcm)y-o-yduringQ1-Q32023.Pipeddeliveriestothereductionof9(orover3bcm),thefirstdeclinesinceRussia’sEuropeanUniondroppedbyalmost70%(or38bcm)y-o-ytoatotalinvasionofUkraine.LNGflowsfromtheUnitedStatesincreasedbyof17bcminQ1-Q32023.TheUkrainiantransitrouteaccountedfor6%(or3.5bcm).ThisfurtherreinforcedthepositionofthearoundhalfofthevolumessuppliedtotheEuropeanUnion.UnitedStatesasEurope’sleadingLNGsupplier,witha46%shareRussianpipedgasdeliveriestotheEuropeanUnionincreasedby2-oftotalLNGimports.Russia’sLNGexportstoEuroperemained20%(or1.2bcm)inQ3comparedwithQ2,amidstrongerflowsviabroadlyflat.Accordingtoshippingdata,80%ofEurope’stotalLNGTurkStream.ExportstoTürkiyedeclinedby20%y-o-yinthefirstimportsfromRussiainQ1-Q32023weredeliveredtoBelgium,eightmonthsof2023.Russianpipedgasmetlessthan10%ofFranceandSpain.OECDEurope’sgasdemandinQ1-Q32023.Norway’spipedgassuppliestotherestofEuropedeclinedby11%(or9bcm)y-o-yinThevolumeofRussianpipedgassuppliesremainsamajorQ1-Q32023amidahigherlevelofplannedmaintenanceanduncertaintyforQ42023.Assumingthatflowstotheunplannedoutages.NorwegianpipelinedeliveriestotheEuropeanUnioncontinueattheircurrentlevels,RussianpipedgasEuropeanUnionfellby6%,whileexportstotheUnitedKingdomdeliveriestoOECDEuropewoulddropbyaround50%(or40bcm)plummetedby25%(or5bcm).Non-Norwegiandomesticproductionin2023.LNGimportsareexpectedtoremainbroadlyflatin2023fellbyanestimated10%(or5.5bcm)y-o-yinthefirstcomparedwithlastyearamidhighstoragelevels.Acolderthansevenmonthsof2023.ThesteepestdeclineswererecordedintheaverageQ4couldleadtohigherLNGimportneeds.PAGE28IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Europe’sLNGimportsswitchedfromgrowthtodeclineinQ32023amidhighstoragelevelsEstimatedquarterlychangeinEuropeannaturalgasimportsanddeliveriesfromNorway,Q12021-Q3202340Y-o-ychangeinbcm30IEA.CCBY4.0.20100-10-20LNGOthers-pipelineflowsNorway-pipelineflows-30Russia-pipelineflowsTotalchangeingasimportsandpipelinedeliveriesfromNorway-402021202120212022202220222022202320232023Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q32021Q1IEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonENTSOG(2023),TransparencyPlatform;Eurostat(2023),EnergyStatistics;GasTransmissionSystemOperatorofUkraine(2023),TransparencyPlatform;ICISLNGEdge;JODI(2023),GasWorldDatabase.PAGE29Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023GlobalLNGtradegrewby3%inQ1-Q32023,primarilysupportedbyUSexportsGlobalLNGsupplyexpandedby3%y-o-y(or11bcm)inQ1-Q3importsroseby2.7%y-o-y(or3.2bcm)inQ1-Q32023,largely2023,measuredonanimportbasis.ThisgrowthwasprimarilydrivenbyhigherLNGinflowstotheNetherlands,GermanyandsupportedbytheUnitedStatesandAlgeria,togetheraccountingforItaly.Incontrast,LNGflowstoFrancedroppedby16%(or4bcm)85%oftheincrementalglobalLNGsupply.TheAsiaPacificregioninQ1-Q32023amidwidespreadstrikeactioninAprilandMay.TheandEuropeledLNGdemandgrowth,increasingtheirLNGinflowscommercialstart-upofseveralnewfloatingstorageandby2.7%and2.5%respectively.regasificationunits(FSRUs)facilitatedEuropeanLNGimportgrowth.Altogether,30bcm/yrofregasificationcapacityhasbeenFromasupplyperspective,NorthAmericaaccountedformoreaddedinGermany,Italy,Finland,theNetherlandsandTürkiyethanhalfofincrementalLNGexports,whilegrowthfromAlgeria,sinceRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.ThisincrementalregasificationMozambiqueandNorwayalsodroveincreasedtrade.ThecapacityallowsforamoreoptimalinflowofLNGintotheEuropeanUnitedStatessawaremarkable8%(or6.1bcminabsoluteterms)marketandloweredtheutilisationrateoftheexistingLNGimporty-o-yincreaseinitsLNGoutputintheyeartodate,primarilydriventerminals.Overall,Europe'sLNGregasificationterminalssawabythecontinuedramp-upofCalcasieuPassandthereturnofthe64%utilisationrateinQ1-Q32023,comparedwitharateof75%FreeportLNGexportterminaltofullserviceafterafire-inducedduringthesameperiodin2022.outageinJune2022.Algeria’sLNGexportsincreasedby30%(or2.8bcm)inQ1-Q32023.OECDEuropehavebenefitedfromthisLNGimportsintotheAsiaPacificregionincreasedby2.6%y-o-ygrowth,absorbingmorethan90%ofthetotalLNGvolumes(or6.3bcminabsoluteterms)inQ1-Q32023.ThiswasprimarilyexportedfromAlgeriasofarthisyear.Mozambique’sLNGexportsdrivenbyChina.Aftermorethan13monthsofyear-on-yearcontributed2.3bcmtoglobalincrementalsupply,withthecontinueddeclines,China’snetLNGimportsstartedtorecoverinMarch2023ramp-upofCoralSouthFLNG.Additionaly-o-ygrowthinLNGandgrewby13%y-o-y(or7.8bcm)inQ1-Q32023.ThreenewsupplywasdrivenbyNorway(up2.3bcmyoy),Indonesia(upLNGimportterminalshavebeencommissionedsofarthisyear,1.4bcmyoy)andQatar(up1bcmyoy).namelyCaofeidianXintianLNGterminalinTangshancity(6.8bcm/yr),WenzhouLNGinZheijang(4bcm/yr),andNanshaFromademandperspective,Europe’sLNGimportscontinuedtoLNGinGuangzhoucity(1.4bcm/yr).Chinahasnow27LNGimportgrowinH12023,reversingtoay-o-ydeclineinQ3amidcontinuedterminals,withatotalregasificationcapacityof156bcm/yr.gasdemandreductionandhighstoragelevels.Europe’snetLNGPAGE30IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023thebeginningof2023,andSouthAsianbuyersreturnedtothespotIncontrast,Japan’sLNGimportsdeclinedby9%(or6.6bcm)inmarketsviatenders,especiallyasdemandforelectricityintheQ1-Q32023,asimprovingnuclearavailabilityandlowerelectricityregionincreasedwiththeheatwavesinspringandsummer2023.demandweighedongas-firedpowergeneration.Japan’sLNGBangladeshandPakistansawtheirLNGimportsincreaseby12%importsfelltotheirlowestinmorethan20yearsinMayat5.5bcmand9%respectively(or0.6bcmforboth)y-o-yinQ1-Q32023.(downby19%y-o-y),aseffortstosaveenergyandboostnuclearpowerreducedgasdemand.Korea’sLNGimportsslightlyLNGimportsinCentralandSouthAmericaslightlyincreasedbydecreasedinQ1-Q32023(down3.8%or1.7bcmy-o-y)dueto1.5%(or0.2bcm)y-o-yinQ1-Q32023.Brazil’sLNGimportslowergasdemand,supportinghighLNGinventorylevels.Indroppedby67%(or1.8bcm)y-o-yinQ1-Q3amidhealthyhydrocontrast,Thailand’sLNGimportsgrewbyastrong33%y-o-y(oravailabilityandalowergasburninthepowersector.3.1bcm),largelysupportedbythecountry’sdecliningdomesticproduction.Singapore’sLNGimportsincreasedby33%(orForthefullyearof2023weforecastglobalLNGtradetoincrease1.3bcm)y-o-yinQ1-Q32023,supportedbystablegasdemandby3%(or18bcm).TheUnitedStatesaloneisexpectedtoandlowerpipelinesuppliesfromIndonesiaandMalaysia.India’scontributemorethanhalfoftheincrementalLNGsupplyandLNGimportsincreasedby8%(upby1.4bcm)comparedwithQ1-becometheworld’slargestLNGexporter.AdditionalsupplyisQ32022.LowerspotLNGpricessinceQ2(belowtheUSD15/MBtuexpectedfromimprovedfeedgasavailabilityinAlgeria,thestart-upthreshold)spurredapositivedemandresponsefromindustryandofTangguhTrain3inIndonesiaandthecontinuedramp-upofCoralthepowersector.InAprilthecountrycommissionedtheDhamraSouthFLNGinMozambique.DemandgrowthissettobelargelyLNGimportterminal(7bcm/yr),whichaddsmorethan10%todrivenbyAsia.China’sLNGimportsareexpectedtoincreasebyIndia'sexistingregasificationcapacity.ThisisIndia'sseventhLNG16%over2022levels.WhileChina’sLNGinflowsareforecasttoimportfacilityandthesecondontheeastcoast,alongwithEnnore.remainbelowtheirrecordlevelsof2021,thecountryissettoregainAccordingtodatafromPPAC,demandforregasifiedLNGintheitspositionastheworld’slargestLNGimporter.Europe’sLNGfertilisersectoralmosttripledinthefirst8monthsof2023comparedimportsareexpectedtoremainclosetolastyear’slevels.withthesameperiodin2022,largelythankstogovernmentsubsidiesandimprovedconnectivityforfertiliserplantsinsouthernIndia.JKMpricesmoderatedsignificantlyfromthelevelsseenatPAGE31IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023NorthAmericaLNGdemandgrowthislargelydrivenbytheAsiaPacificregionin2023MiddleEastEuropeLNGimportsandexportsbyregion,2015-2023EurasiaCentralandSouthAmerica800AsiaPacificIMPORTSAfrica600IEA.CCBY4.0.bcm400IEA.CCBY4.0.2000-200-400-600EXPORTS-800201520162017201820192020202120222023Source:IEAanalysisbasedonICIS(2022),ICISLNGEdge.PAGE32Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023EuropeannaturalgaspricescontinuedtoweakeninQ32023,whileAsianandUSspotpricesstrengthenedcomparedwithQ2Subdueddemand,togetherwithhighstoragelevels,weighedonInAsia,JKMpricesincreasedby15%onthequartertoanaveragespotgaspricesinEuropeinQ3.InAsia,emergingbuyinginterestofUSD12.5/MBtuinQ32023,albeit70%lowerthanthesameandsupplyuncertaintystrengthenedJKMpricescomparedwithQ2.periodlastyear.EmergingbuyinginteresttogetherwithsupplyIntheUnitedStates,HenryHubpricesroseamidtightersupply–uncertaintysurroundingAustralianLNGprovidedupwardsupporttodemandfundamentalsandagraduallyerodingstoragesurplus.JKMpricesinQ3.AsianspotLNGpricesrecoveredtheirpremiumoverEuropeanhubpricesattheendofMay2023.JKMaveragedInEurope,TTFspotpricesdeclinedby8%onthequartertoanUSD2/MBtuaboveTTFmonth-aheadpricesinQ32023.There-averageofjustoverUSD10/MBtuinQ32023,standing80%belowemergenceoftheJKMpremiumaboveTTFdroveLNGcargoslastyear’slevels.ContinueddemandreductionandhighinventoryawayfromEurope.WhileAsia’sLNGimportsgrewby6%y-o-yinlevelsputdownwardpressureonEuropeanhubpricesinQ3.Q3,Europe’sdeclinedby9%.Despitelowerpricelevels,volatilityremainedelevated.OutagesinNorwayandtheriskofstrikesatLNGplantsinAustraliafuelledIntheUnitedStates,HenryHubpricesincreasedby20%onthestrongpricevolatilityduringAugustandSeptember.HistoricquartertoanaverageofUSD2.6/MBtuinQ22023,albeitdownbyvolatilityinTTFmonth-aheadpricesaveraged140%inQ32023–65%comparedwithlastyear’slevels.SlowerdomesticproductionitshighestlevelsinceQ12022,whenRussia’sinvasionofUkrainegrowthcombinedwithrobustgasburninthepowersectoranddrovepricevolatilitytoall-timehighs.TTF’spremiumoverNBPhigherLNGexportsdrovethequarter-on-quarterincreaseingasnarrowedtoUSD0.1/MBtuinQ32023fromoverUSD18/MBtuprices.duringthesameperiodlastyear.TheexpansionofLNGregasificationcapacityinNorthwestEuropeandlowerstorageAccordingtoforwardcurvesasoftheendofSeptember2023,injectionneedseasedcongestionalongtheEU–UKTTFissettoaveragejustbelowUSD13/MBtuin2023,withJKMinterconnectors,whichinturntightenedtheTTF–NBPpricespread.slightlyaboveUSD13.5/MBtuandHenryHubatUSD2.7/MBtu.NBPtradedatapremiumcomparedwithTTFinSeptember,asJKMpricesareexpectedtohaveanaverageofUSD2/MBtuabovelowerNorwegianpipelinedeliveriessupportedstrongerpricegainsTTFinQ42023.ontheBritishgashub.PAGE33IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023AsianspotLNGpricesareexpectedtotradeaboveTTFinQ42023Mainspotandforwardnaturalgasprices,2020-202360USD/MBtu40200Q220222023Q3Q4TTFHenryHubJKMQ1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4IEA.CCBY4.0.IEA.CCBY4.0.Note:FuturepricesarebasedonforwardcurvesasoftheendofSeptember2023anddonotrepresentapriceforecast.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonCMEGroup(2023),HenryHubNaturalGasFuturesQuotes,DutchTTFNaturalGasMonthFuturesSettlements,LNGJapan/KoreaMarker(Platts)FuturesSettlements;EIA(2023),HenryHubNaturalGasSpotPrice;Powernext(2023),SpotMarketData;S&PGlobal(2023),PlattsConnect.PAGE34Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023StorageinjectionsintheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesslowedinQ32023DespiteslowerinjectionsinQ3,storagesitesintheincreasinglyshiftedtoUkraine.ThecountryaloneaccountedforEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesopenedthe2023/24over25%oftotalEuropeanstorageinjectionsduringAugustandheatingseason2withinventorylevelsstandingwellabovetheirSeptember.EUtradersinjected2bcmofnaturalgasintoUkraine’shistoricaverages.Thisislargelyduetotheabove-averagegasstoragefacilitiesbeforethestartofthe2023/24winterseason.inventorylevelsinheritedfromthe2022/23winterseason,andinthecaseoftheUnitedStatesstrongstoragebuild-upoverQ2.IntheUnitedStates,storagesitesopenedthe2023injectionseason43%full,standingalmost20%(or8bcm)abovetheirfive-IntheEuropeanUnion,storagesitesclosedthe2022/23heatingyearaverage.Stronggrowthindomesticgasproductionsupportedseasonwithinventorylevelsstanding67%(or23bcm)abovetheirabove-averagenetinjectionsinQ2;theywere7%(or2bcm)abovefive-yearaverageasaconsequenceofbelow-averagenettheirfive-yearaverageat29bcm.Theslowdowninproductionwithdrawalsduringthewinter.Lowerprimarygassupply(domesticgrowth,togetherwithhighgas-to-powerdemandandrisingLNGproductionandimports)ledtoaslowerstoragebuild-upduringtheexports,depressedstorageinjectionsinQ3,whichwere25%(orgassummer.Netinjectionsfell22%(or12bcm)belowtheirfive-5.5bcm)belowtheirfive-yearaverageat16bcm.Whilesloweryearaveragetoatotalof42bcminQ2andQ32023.WhileslowerinjectionsmoderatedtheUSstoragesurplus,inventorylevelsstillinjectionratesmoderatedtheEUstoragesurplus,inventorylevelsstood5%(or5bcm)abovetheirfive-yearaverageattheendofstillstood12%(or10bcm)abovetheirfive-yearaverageonSeptember,reachingafilllevelof81%.1October2023.Consequently,EUinventorylevelsreached96%oftheirworkingstoragecapacitybythestartofthe2023/24heatingInJapanandKorea,closingLNGstocksstood29%(or2.8bcm)season,6%abovetheEUstoragetarget.InUkraine,gasinventoryabovetheirfive-yearaverageinJuly2023.LowerLNGimportslevelsattheendofMarch2023wereestimatedat9bcmandroseweighedontheLNGstocksofJapan’slargestpowergenerationto15bcmbytheendofQ3.AsEUstoragesitesreached90%ofcompanies,whichdeclinedby20%betweenearlyAugustandthetheirworkingstoragecapacitybythebeginningofAugust,injectionsendofSeptemberto1.62Mt(2.2bcm),standing19%belowtheirfive-yearaverage.2Theheatingseason(orgaswinter)inthemarketsoftheNorthernHemispherereferstotheTheinjectionseason(orgassummer)inthemarketsoftheNorthernHemispherereferstotheperiodbetween1Octoberand31March.periodbetween1Apriland30September.PAGE35IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023GasmarketupdateIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023EUandUSstoragesitesopenedthe2023/24heatingseasonwithinventorieswellabovetheirfive-yearaverageUSundergroundstorageinventoryEUundergroundstorageinventoryJapanandKoreaLNGstockinventory12012015bcmbcmbcm100100128080960604040620203000OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepFive-yearrangeFive-yearaverage2022/23Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonEIA(2023),WeeklyWorkingGasInUndergroundStorage;GIE(2023),AGSI+Database;IEA(2023),MonthlyGasDataService.IEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE36IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termmarketoutlookIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookPAGE37IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termmarketoutlookIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Globalgasdemand:TowardsaslowergrowthtrajectoryGlobalgasdemandexpandedbyover10%(or380bcm)demandisoffsetbydemandreductionsintheindustrial,commercialbetween2017and2021,makingitthefastest-growingsourceofandresidentialsectors.Gasdemandforpowergenerationdeclinesenergysupply.TheglobalgascrisistriggeredbyRussia,togetherin2024andbeyond.Asaresult,overallNorthAmericangaswithaweakermacroeconomicoutlook,isweighingontheprospectsdemandisforecasttodeclineatanaveragerateof0.5%peryearfornaturalgas.Globalgasdemandgrowthisforecasttoslowduring2022-2026,primarilyduetolowergasburninthepowerdownsignificantly,fromanaveragerateof2.5%peryearduringsectoramidthecontinuedexpansionofrenewables.Gasuseinthe2017-2021to1.6%during2022-2026.Industryaloneisexpectedindustrialsectorisforecasttoincreaseatarateof0.5%peryear,toaccountforalmost60%ofincrementalgasdemand,primarilyprimarilyduetotheexpansionofgas-intensiveindustrialconcentratedinthefast-growingmarketsofAsiaPacificandthesubsectors,includingfertilisers.Gasdemandintheresidentialandgas-richcountriesoftheMiddleEast.Gas-to-powerdemandcommercialsectorsissetforagradualdeclineamidenergygrowthisexpectedtodeceleratefromanaverageof2.4%efficiencygainsenabledbyretrofits.between2017and2021to0.5%.Whilegas-firedpowergenerationisstillexpandinginemergingmarkets,thisgrowthisalmostentirelyTheAsiaPacificregionissettoremainthedrivingforceoffsetbydemandreductioninthematuremarketsofEurope,Northbehindnaturalgasdemandgrowthglobally,accountingforAmericaandNortheastAsia.almost70%ofincrementalgasdemandoverthemediumterm.Theregion’sdemandforgasgrewatarateof4%peryearbetweenNaturalgasdemandinNorthAmerica–theworld’slargestgas2017and2021,supportedbyeconomicexpansion,China’smarket–issetforaslowdecline.Gasdemandexpandedbymandatedcoal-to-gasswitchingpolicyanditsgasification12%(orover115bcm)between2017and2021,primarilydrivenbyprogramme.Asia’sgasconsumptiondecreasedbyanestimatedcoal-to-gasswitchingdynamicsintheUnitedStatesandCanda.In2%in2022duetoall-timehighLNGprices,Covid-inducedcontrastwithotherregions,NorthAmericangasdemandcontinuedlockdownsinChinaandmildweatherduringmostoftheyearintogrowin2022,risingbycloseto5%(or53bcm)comparedwithNortheastAsia.China’snaturalgasconsumptiondeclinedforthe2021.Thisincreasewaslargelyduetothepowergenerationsectorfirsttimeinfourdecades.TheAsiaPacificregion’sgasdemandisandtheresidentialandcommercialsectors.Gasdemandisexpectedtorecoverin2023bycloseto3%,primarilysupportedbyexpectedtoremainbroadlyflatin2023,ashighergas-to-powerChina.Theregion’sdemandisexpectedtoexpandby20%by2026PAGE38IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termmarketoutlookIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-20232023,primarilyduetolowergasburninthepowersectoramidcomparedwith2022.DemandgrowthisprimarilyconcentratedinlowerelectricitydemandandthecontinuedexpansionofChina,IndiaandemergingAsia,whilegasdemandissettodeclinerenewables.OECDEurope’snaturalgasdemandisforecasttointheregion’smaturemarkets(JapanandKorea)onimprovingdeclineby8%(orover35bcm)during2022-2026andby2026tonuclearavailabilityandagrowingshareofrenewablesinthepowerstandalmost20%(or110bcm)belowthelevelreachedin2021.sector.Thisdeclineisdrivenbystructuralfactors,includingmorerapiddeploymentofrenewablesandheatpumps,andenergyefficiencyEurasiannaturalgasdemandtrendstowardsstagnation.Thegains.Thisforecastassumesthatoverhalfoftheindustrialgasregion’snaturalgasconsumptionroseby13%(or72bcm)betweendemandlostin2022willnotberecoveredby2026.2017and2021,ledbyRussiaandprimarilysupportedbydemandgrowthintheindustrialandpowersectors.In2022naturalgasNaturalgasdemandintheMiddleEastissettocontinueitsconsumptionfellby4%amideconomiccontractioninRussiaandrapidexpansion,atanaveragerateof2.6%between2022andmilderwinterweatherconditions.Naturalgasdemandgrowthis2026.IranandSaudiArabiaareexpectedtoaccountforaroundforecasttoslowfromanaverageof3%between2017and2021to75%oftheincrementalgasdemand.Theexpansionofgas-1.9%between2023and2026.Thismoderaterecoveryfrom2022intensiveindustries,togetherwiththegradualphase-outofoilallowstheregion’sgasdemandtostandjust2%aboveits2021productsfromthepowersector,issettosupportthisgrowth.levelby2026.WeakereconomicgrowthinRussiaandupstreamsupplyissuesinUzbekistan,theregion’ssecond-largestgasAfrica’sgasdemandgrowthisdrivenbyitsrapidlyrisingmarket,arelimitingtheprospectsofgasdemandgrowthinEurasia.population,improvingenergyaccessandeconomicgrowth.Theregion’sgasdemandgrowthisforecasttoacceleratefrom3%NaturalgasdemandinEuropeissetforstructuraldeclineoverbetween2017and2021tocloseto4%between2022and2026.themediumterm.OECDEurope’snaturalgasconsumptionHighergasburninthepowersectorisexpectedtoaccountforremainedbroadlyflatbetween2017and2021.The2022gascrisisalmost70%ofincrementalgasdemand.triggeredbyRussiadeeplytransformedtheEuropeanmarket:consumptionfellby13%(or72bcm),itssteepestdroponrecord.NaturalgasdemandinCentralandSouthAmericaissetforaLowergasuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectors,togethermoderategrowth,primarilydrivenbyindustry.Thisgrowthiswithplummetingindustrialgasdemand,accountedforthebulkofsupportedbyimprovingnaturalgasproductionprospectsinthisreduction.NaturalgasconsumptionissettodeclinefurtherinArgentinaandBrazil.PAGE39IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termmarketoutlookIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Globalgasdemandgrowthissettoslowbyone-thirdovertheforecastperiodTheevolutionofnaturalgasdemandbyregion,2017-2021vs2022-20262022-262017-21-200-1000100200300400AfricaAsiaPacificEuropeMiddleEastNorthAmericaNetdemandgrowthbcmCentralandSouthAmericaEurasiaIEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE40IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termmarketoutlookIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023AsiaPacificisexpectedtoaccountfor70%ofincrementalgasdemandoverthemediumtermYear-on-yearchangeinnaturalgasproductionbyregion,2020-20262006%Y-o-ychange(bcm)ForecastY-o-ychange(%)1604%IEA.CCBY4.0.2023120EuropeAfrica2%800%40-2%0-4%-40-6%2026-80Y-o-ychange-120IEA.CCBY4.0.-160-200201920202021202220242025AsiaPacificEurasiaMiddleEastNorthAmericaSouthandCentralAmericaPAGE41Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termmarketoutlookIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Europeannaturalgasdemand:StructuraldeclineThegassupplyshocktriggeredbyRussiain2022reinforcedthechangesallplayedacriticalroleinreducingdistributionnetwork-structuraldriversacceleratingthedeclineinEuropeangasrelateddemand.Inaddition,risingaffordabilityissuescontributedtodemandoverthemediumterm.NaturalgasdemandinOECDlowernaturalgasuseinhouseholds.TheshareofhouseholdsEuropeisexpectedtodeclineby8%(or35bcm)between2022unabletokeeptheirhomesadequatelywarmrosefrom6.9%inand2026andstandalmost20%(or110bcm)belowthe2021level2021to9.3%in2022–itshighestlevelsince2015.by2026.Arelativelyhighgaspriceenvironmentissettoweighondemandrecoveryinindustry,whileamorerapiddeploymentNaturalgasdemandintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsofrenewablesisexpectedtoreducethecallongas-firedpowerissetforamoderatereductionoverthemediumterm.plants.Intheresidentialandcommercialsectors,energyefficiencyAccountingforthedeclinesthisyeartodate,distributionnetwork-gainstogetherwithmorerapidinstallationofheatpumpsaresettorelateddemandisexpectedtodropby4%in2023.Areturntoreducegasuseduringtheforecastperiod.Nevertheless,theaveragetemperatureswouldaloneincreaseresidentialandflexibilityprovidedbynaturalgaswillremaincrucialtoensurecommercialdemandduring2024-2026,althoughmorestructuralsecurityofenergyandelectricitysupplyinthemediumterm.changesaresettooffsetthisimpactandweighonnaturalgasuse.IntheEuropeanUnion,theRenovationWaveissettoimprovetheResidentialandcommercialsectorsenergyefficiencystandardsofthebuildingstock.ConsideringtherenovationratestargetedbytheEuropeanUnion,directnaturalgasEuropeangasconsumptionfellby13%(or72bcm)in2022,itssavingsfromimprovedenergyefficiencycouldamounttooversteepestdroponrecord.Lowergasuseintheresidentialand0.8bcm/yrintheperiod2023-2026.Electrificationofheatthroughcommercialsectors(downby15%comparedwith2021)accountedthedeploymentofheatpumpsisexpectedtofurthermoderateforalmosthalfofthisdecline.Milderweatherconditionsexplainjustnaturalgasuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectors.Thisover40%ofthegasdemandreductionintheresidentialandforecastassumesthatheatpumpscouldreducenaturalgascommercialsectors.Non-weather-relatedfactorswereamajordemandbyover3bcmby2026comparedwith2022levels.driverbehindthislowergasuse.Gas-savingmeasuresenactedinConsideringthetemperaturesensitivityofthesesectors,significantpublicbuildings,fuel-switchinginhouseholdswiththeoption,thedemandvariationscanoccurdependingonweatherconditions,installationofheatpumps,efficiencygainsandbehaviouralwhichwouldalterthecurrentforecast.PAGE42IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termmarketoutlookIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023IndustryPowersectorNaturalgasdemandinindustrydroppedbyaround20%(orDespiterecordhighgasprices,Europeangas-to-powerdemand30bcm)in2022,withall-timehighgaspricesdrivingfuel-remainedrelativelyresilientin2022,decliningbyjust4%(orswitchingandleadingtoreducedproductionratesacrossthe6bcm).Whiledecade-lowhydroandnucleargenerationmostgas-andenergy-intensiveindustries.IntheEuropeanUnion,increasedthecallongas-firedpowerplantsincertainmarkets,productioncurtailmentsaccountedforaroundhalfofthedeclineinlowerelectricitydemandtogetherwithgas-to-coalswitchingandindustrialgasuse,withchemicalsandfertilisersbeingthemost-strongerwindandsolarpoweroutputweighedontheoverallgasaffectedsectors.Forinstance,ammoniaproductiondroppedbyburninthepowersector.closeto25%,methanoloutputby23%andureabyalmost20%.Gas-to-powerdemandisforecasttodeclinebyover25%(orOurforecastassumesthatmorethanhalfoftheindustrialgascloseto50bcm)intheperiod2022-2026,primarilydrivenbydemandlostin2022willnotberecoveredoverthemediumterm,asaccelerateddeploymentofrenewablesandimprovingnucleartherelativelyhighgaspriceenvironmentweighsontheprospectsofavailability.Gas-firedpowergenerationisexpectedtodropbyovergas-intensiveEuropeanindustries.In2023gasuseinindustryis15%(or25bcm)in2023duetolowerelectricitydemand,strongerexpectedtostayclosetolastyear’slevels,withdemandrecoveryinnuclearandhydrooutputandthecontinuedexpansionofwindandthesecondhalfoftheyearoffsettingthelossesinH1.Industrialsolarpowergeneration.Thedeclineingas-to-powerdemandissectorgasuseisexpectedtomarginallyrecoverduring2024-2026projectedtoslowtoarateofbelow5%peryearduring2024-2026amidanimprovingmacroeconomicenvironmentandhealthieramidtheexpectedrecoveryinelectricitydemandandthecontinuedsupplyavailability.TherelocationofEuropeanindustriestoothercoalphase-out.Coal-firedpowergenerationcapacityissettoregions–withastructurallylowercostofgassupply–remainsadeclinebycloseto25%(orover30GW)between2022and2026,majordownsiderisktoindustrialgasdemandinEurope.Aswitharound85%oftheplantclosuresconcentratedinnorthernandhightlightedinarecentsurvey,almostathirdofGermany’ssouthwesternEurope.Thisinturnreinforcestheroleofgas-firedindustrialcompaniesarerelocatingcapacityabroadorrestrictingpowerplantsinprovidingflexiblepowersupplyandensuringproductionathome,orareplanningtodoso,inlightoftheimpactselectricitysupplysecurityinanincreasinglyvariablerenewables-ofthe2022energycrisis.dominatedpowersystem.PAGE43IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termmarketoutlookIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023TheexpansionofrenewablesissettoreduceEurope’sgasdemandoverthemediumtermExpectedchangeinnaturalgasdemandbysector,OECDEurope,2022-2026500bcm450IEA.CCBY4.0.400350300PowerResidentialandIndustryOthersectors20262022commercialIEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE44Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termmarketoutlookIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Russiannaturalgasdemand:TrendingtowardsstagnationRussia’sinvasionofUkraineandthesubsequentsanctionsregimeimposedfollowingitsinvasionofUkraine.InitialestimatesindicatehavenegativelyaffectedtheoutlookforRussiangasdemandoverthatnaturalgasuseinindustryfellbyover7%(ormorethanthemediumterm.Followingasteepdeclinein2022,Russia’s6bcm)amidlowerdemandfromthemoreenergy-intensiveandnaturalgasdemandisexpectedtogrowatanaveragerateof1.5%export-orientedindustrialsectors.Forinstance,Russia’sammoniaperyearduringtheforecastperiod,largelysupportedbytheproductiondroppedby15%(or3Mt)in2022,thatalonetranslatingindustrialandpowersectors.intoareductioningasdemandofaround3bcm.Gasuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsdroppedbyover5%asRecentdemandtrendsmilderwinterweatherconditionsloweredspaceheatingrequirements.GasburnintheelectricityandheatgenerationRussia’snaturalgasdemandrosebyastrong12%(or55bcm)sectordeclinedbyanestimated4%(orover10bcm)primarilyduein2021toreachanall-timehighof516bcm.Thisparticularlytolowerdistrictheatingdemand.ThesteepdeclineinRussia’sgasstronggrowthwassupportedbyanumberoffactors.Colderproduction(downby12%)togetherwiththehalvingofpipedgasweatherconditionsduringtheheatingseasonledtohighergasuseexportstoEuropeweighedonnaturalgasuseasafuelforintheresidentialandcommercialsectors,includingindirectlyviathecompressorstationsinthecountry’svasttransmissionsystem.country’svastdistrictheatingsystem.RecoveryineconomicConsequently,gasusedfortransportdroppedbyanestimatedactivity(GDPgrewby5.6%)followingtheCovid-relatedlockdowns10%(or4bcm)in2022.of2020supportedstrongerdemandfromthecountry’senergy-andgas-intensiveindustries.GasburninthepowersectorincreasedMedium-termforecastbyover10%in2021,reflectingeconomicgrowth,colderweatherconditionsandlowerhydroavailabilityinthecountry’swesternRussia’snaturalgasdemandisexpectedtoremainbroadlyflatregions(wheremostofthegas-firedpowerfleetislocated).in2023,ashighergasburninthepowersectorisoffsetbythecontinuedreductioningasuseintheindustrialandtransportFollowingstronggrowthin2021,Russia’snaturalgasdemandsectors.Gasdemandisprojectedtoreturntogrowthin2024anddroppedbyover5.5%(oralmost30bcm)in2022.Thispartlyexpandby6%(orcloseto30bcm)between2022and2026,largelyreflectedthecountry’sdeterioratingcommercialandindustrialsupportedbytheindustrialandpowersectors.activity.Russia’sGDPdeclinedby2.1%in2022amidthesanctionsPAGE45IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termmarketoutlookIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023ResidentialandcommercialsectorsIndustryDirectgasuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsisNaturalgasdemandinindustryisforecasttoexpandby10%(orprojectedtoincreaseatanaverageof1.5%peryearduring2022-morethan10bcm)intheperiod2022-2026,accountingforone-2026.Giventhetemperaturesensitivityofthesesectors,significantthirdofoveralldemandgrowth.However,around60%ofindustrialdemandvariationscanoccurdependingonweatherconditions.demandgrowthisassociatedwiththerecoveryfollowingthesteepDemandgrowthinthesesectorsislargelysupportedbyRussia’sdeclinein2022.IncrementalgasdemandissettobedrivenbygasificationprogrammecarriedoutbyGazprom.Naturalgasrisingfertiliserproduction,primarilyhigherammoniaoutput.RussiapenetrationinRussiahasrisensignificantlyinrecentyears,fromhassetambitiousplanstodevelopitsgas-basedchemicals53%in2006to73%bytheendof2022.Underthecurrentindustry,includingaramp-upinmethanolproduction.Threegasificationschememorethan530000newhouseholdswillbeprojectsareunderadvanceddevelopment,withthepotentialtoaddconnectedtothegasgridin2021-2025,withaninvestmentofover4.5Mt/yrofproductioncapacityby2026,whichcouldtranslateintoRUB520billion(orUSD5.5billion).Thegasificationlevelismorethan4bcm/yrofgasdemand.However,theseprojectsareexpectedtoincreaseto75%by2024andto83%by2030.facingincreasinglyuncertaintimelinesandcouldbedelayedbeyondourforecasthorizon,amidsanctionslimitingaccesstoTransportcapitalmarketsandkeyenergytechnologies.Naturalgasuseintransportisexpectedtoexpandbycloseto10%Powersector(or3.5bcm)during2022-2026.ThisislargelysupportedbyhigherdemandfromthetransmissionsystemamidthegradualrecoveryNaturalgasdemandinRussia’spowersector(includingheatinRussia’snaturalgasproductionandtheramp-upofpipedgasgeneration)isexpectedtoincreaseatanaveragerateoflessthanexportstoChinaviathePowerofSiberiapipelinesystem.In1%peryearduring2022-2026,assumingaverageweatheraddition,Russiaissettoincreasetheuseofnaturalgasasaroadconditions.Thismeagregrowthwillbepartlysupportedbyafuel.Gasdemandfornaturalgasvehiclesrosefrom1bcmincontinuedincreaseinRussia’selectricitydemandamidgradually2020to1.72bcmby2022andisexpectedtoexpandbyclosetoimprovingcommercialandindustrialactivityinthecountry.Nuclear70%toreachover3bcmby2026.plantclosurestotalling2.8GWduring2024-2026areexpectedtoprovideadditionalmarketspaceforgas-firedpowerplants.PAGE46IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termmarketoutlookIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Russia’sgasdemandrecoveryisprimarilyledbytheindustrialandpowersectorsExpectedchangeinnaturalgasdemandbysector,Russia,2022-2026520ChangeinbcmEnergysectorIEA.CCBY4.0.ownuse/lossesPipedtransport510NGVsGasificationprogrammeIncremental:fertilisers500chemicalsDemandrecoveryElectricitydemandgrowth490Lowernuclearoutput480PowerIndustryResidentialandTransportOthers20262022commercialIEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE47GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookImprovingnuclearavailabilityandrisingrenewablepoweroutputisexpectedtoreducegasdemandinJapanandKoreaCombinedgasdemandinJapanandKoreaisforecasttodeclinebyoveralldemandreductionintheforecastperiod,ashighernuclear8%(or13bcm)between2022and2026,primarilyduetoimprovingandrenewableenergygenerationweighsongas-firedpowernuclearavailabilityandthecontinuedexpansionofrenewableoutput.powergeneration.ImprovingenergyefficiencystandardsareexpectedtofurtherweighongasuseintheresidentialandJapan’snuclearpoweroutputissettoincreaseinthemediumterm.commercialsectors.ThisinturncouldhelpeaseprevailingmarketTakahama1restartedfull-scaleoperationsattheendofAugusttensionsandenhanceglobalgassupplysecurityinthecoming2023.Inaddition,Takahama2isscheduledtorestartfull-scaleyears.operationsinOctober.Includingtherestartofthesetworeactors,12reactors(about11.6GWintotal)willbeinoperationinOctober.JapanBasedonthelatestpubliclyavailableinformation,itcanbeassumedthatthenumberofrestartswillgraduallyincreaseafterNaturalgasdemandinJapandeclinedby1%(or1bcm)in2022.2023.TotaloperatingnuclearcapacitycouldincreasetooverWhilecommercialandindustrialcitygassalesincreasedby7%and15GWby2026,weighingoncoal-andgas-firedpowergeneration,3%respectively,thedeclineintotalgasdemandwasdrivenbybutwithhighuncertaintyregardingrestartsandoperatingcapacitysignificantlylowergasconsumptioninthepowersector.growth.Atthesametime,otherfactorsaffectinggasconsumptioninthepowergenerationsectorincludeadecreaseinelectricityIn2023Japan’snaturalgasdemandisexpectedtodropby6%(ordemandduetoenergyconservationandanincreaseinrenewable6bcm)comparedwith2022.Thisdeclineisprimarilydrivenbypowergeneration.Consequently,gas-firedgenerationinJapanislowergasburninthepowersectoramidimprovingnuclearforecasttodeclineby14%between2022and2026.availability.Slowereconomicgrowthisexpectedtoweighongasdemandinindustry,whileanunseasonablymildQ1reducedgasInparticular,renewableenergyhasshownsignificantgrowthinuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectors,weighingontherecentyearsandcanbeassumedtocontinueitsrise.Accordingtooutlookforthefullyearof2023.Japan’sgasdemandisprojectedtoJapan’s6thStrategicEnergyPlanpublishedin2021,theshareofdeclineby11%(or11bcm)by2026comparedwith2022.LowerrenewableenergyinthepowersupplymixinFY2030shouldbe36-gasburninthepowersectoraloneaccountsforaround80%ofthe38%andtheamountofelectricitygenerated336-353TWh/yr,anPAGE48IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookincreaseofapproximately60%fromFY2021.Energyefficiencyapproximately29GW,accountingfor32%ofallelectricitygainsandprogressinenergysavingintheindustrial,residentialandgeneration.ShinHanul1startedcommercialoperationinDecembercommercialsectorsallcontributetoareductioningasconsumption.2022,andcurrently25reactorsareinoperationwithatotalcapacityofapproximately25GW.ShinHanul2isscheduledtostartfullKoreaoperationsinQ12024.Inaddition,Saeul3andSaeul4areexpectedtobecomeoperational,andtotaloperatingnuclearNaturalgasdemandinKoreadeclinedbyabout1%(or0.7bcm)incapacitycouldincreasetocloseto29GWby2026.2022.Gasconsumptionforpowergenerationfellbyabout3%,loweringoverallgasdemand.TheindustrialandcitygassegmentsAtthesametime,theamountofrenewablepowergenerationisincreased,butnotenoughtocompensateforthereductioninpoweralsoexpectedtoincreasesignificantlyoverthemediumterm.generation.Consequently,gas-firedpowergenerationinKoreaisforecasttodeclinebyabout10%between2022and2026.AccordingtotheKorea’sgasdemandin2023isexpectedtodecreasebyabout2%10thBasicEnergyPlan,theshareofrenewablepoweroutputincomparedwith2022.Thisismainlyduetoadeclineinpowertotalpowergenerationshouldincreasetoabout22%in2030,withgenerationasnuclearandrenewablegenerationincrease,butalsotheshareofgas-firedpowersupplyatapproximately23%.Itisduetolowergasuseincitygassegments.assumedthattheconsumptionofcitygassegmentswillincreaseslightlytowards2026.However,thiswillnotbeenoughtoKorea’sgasdemandisprojectedtodeclineby4%(or2bcm)bycompensateforthedeclineinpowergeneration.2026comparedwith2022.Nuclearpowerandrenewableenergyoutputareexpectedtocontinuegrowing,whichwillreducethecalloncoal-andgas-firedpowerplants.InJanuary2023Koreaannouncedplanstoincreasenuclearpowergenerationthroughthe10thBasicEnergyPlan.Accordingtotheplan,in2030nuclearpowercapacityisexpectedtoreachPAGE49IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookCombinednaturalgasdemandinJapanandKoreaisexpectedtodeclineby8%overthemediumtermNaturalgasdemand,andnuclearandrenewablepowergeneration,JapanandKorea,2022-2026IEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE50IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookChinaisexpectedtoaccountfornearlyhalfofmedium-termglobalgasdemandgrowthChinaissettoremainthekeydrivingforcebehindglobalgasawayfromgas.Asaresult,whileChineseeconomicgrowthsloweddemandgrowthoverthemediumterm,accountingfor48%oftoarateofapproximately3%,theindustrialsector’sgasdemandincrementalgasdemandduring2022-2026.fellbyapproximately2%.However,withCovid-relatedlockdownseasingandpricepressuressofteningsincelate2022,industry’sFollowingitsfirstdeclineinfourdecadesin2022,China’snaturalgasdemandisbackontrackandexpectedtogrowby8%ingasdemandreturnedtoaclearpathofrecoveryoverthefirst2023,accountingforhalfofthisyear’sdemandgrowth.eightmonthsof2023.Demandgrowthisexpectedtoremainstrongatanaverageof8%peryearduring2022-2026,althoughIndustryissettocontinueitsmulti-yeartrendastheprimarydriverbelowthe11%growthrateexperiencedbetween2017and2021.ofnaturalgasdemandgrowthinChina,accountingfor40%ofitsSlowereconomicexpansion,togetherwithrelativelyhighgaspriceincrementalgasdemandfrom2022to2026.AslowingofGDPlevelsandaccelerateddeploymentofrenewables,issettogrowthcomparedwithrecentyearshasledtoadownwardrevisionmoderateChina’snaturalgasdemandgrowthovertheshorttointhedemandoutlook,butcontinuedeconomicrecoveryismediumterm.expectedtodriveindustrialsectorgasdemandwhichisexpectedtoexpandby40%by2026comparedwith2022.However,theIndustrysector’sgasdemandoutlookremainsuncertainasastate-ledpolicypushaimingtoreplacecoalwithnaturalgasinindustryismetbyTheindustrialsectorhasbeenthelongstandingdriverofdemandtherealityofpriceuncertaintyandafocusonensuring“reliableintheChinesegasmarket,accountingfornearly40%ofoverallgasenergysupplies”.demandinrecentyearsandalmosthalfoftotaldemandgrowthduring2017-2021.PowersectorIn2022gasdemandinindustrywashamperedbyacombinationofPowergenerationisonlythethird-largestgasdemandsectorinfactors.StrictCovidrestrictionsremainedinplaceuntilDecember,China,butaccountedforclosetoone-fifthofincrementaldemandactingasabrakeonoveralleconomicactivity.All-time-highgasduring2017-2021.Growthofover40%ininstalledgas-firedpricesfurthersoftenedindustrialoutputandspurredfuelswitchingcapacityoverthisperiodfacilitatedaverageannualgrowthof9%inPAGE51IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookpowersectorgasburn.Still,theshareofnaturalgasinthepowerLNGsupplycapacitycomesonlinein2026couldspurgrowthinmixhasgrownmoreslowlythanrenewables,reachingonly3%ofprice-responsivedemandsegments,notablyinthepowersector.China’stotalpowerproductionin2022,farbehindthemorethan60%shareheldbycoal.Residentialandcommercial,andtransportIn2022gasuseforelectricitygenerationfellby10%,squeezedGasuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsgrewbyhighgaspricesandrecordrenewablecapacityadditions.stronglyduringthe2017to2021period,boostedbythelong-However,recoveryinelectricitydemandandrestrictedhydrooutputstandingpolicytoreplacedomesticcoal-firedboilers–notablyduetohistoricheatwavesinthespringhaveledChina’spoweracrossChina’snorthernprovinces–aspartofanactionplantosectorgasdemandtoregisterstronggrowthinthefirstimproveairqualitythroughreducedpollution.However,astheeightmonthsof2023.Improvedgasplanteconomics–thankstoashareofcoalindomesticapplicationsfallsandcostconsiderationssteepdeclineingaspricescomparedwith2022–arealsoexpectedweighontargetedsubsidiesaimedatfavouringgas,growthintoleadtopowersectorgasburngrowthof12%(or8bcm)fortheresidentialandcommercialgasdemandisexpectedtoslowinfullyearof2023.theshorttomediumterm,averaging5%during2022-2026.Still,incrementaldemandinthesectorreaches18bcm,supportedbyGrowthingas-firedpowergenerationisexpectedtoaverageatthecontinuedexpansionofgastransmissionanddistributionover12%peryearbetween2022-2026.Windandsolarcapacitysystems.additionsareexpectedkeeptheshareofrenewablesinthepowermixonastronggrowthpath,partiallyconditioningtheupsidetogasTransportsectorgasdemandissettogrowbyanaverageof6%forpowergeneration.peryear,buoyedbygastransmissionnetworkuseandroadtransport.Takentogether,transport,residentialandcommercialInthecontextofslowereconomicexpansionandahighgaspricedemandareexpectedtoaccountfor22%oftotalChinesegasenvironment,potentialdownsideriskremainsasanemphasisondemandgrowthoverthe2022-2026period.ensuringenergysecurityandstabilisingeconomicgrowthcouldoutweighgovernmentpolicyoncoal-to-gasswitching,whichwasamongthekeyfactorsbehindgasmarketdynamisminpastyears.However,looseningglobalgasmarketfundamentalsasawaveofPAGE52IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookChina’snaturalgasdemandgrowthissettoslowovertheforecastperiodNaturalgasdemandbysector,China,2019-2026Forecast500bcm2020202120222023202420252026450PowergenerationOthers400IEA.CCBY4.0.IEA.CCBY4.0.3503002502001501005002019IndustryResidentialandcommercialPAGE53GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookIndiaandemergingAsiangasmarkets:Price-sensitivegrowthAdversegasmarketconditionsin2022droveacontractioningasalthoughnotablysmallerthanindustrialdemand,alsoremainsakeydemandinIndiaandemergingAsianmarkets3–downby6%anddriverofprice-responsivedemandinIndia.4%respectively–asall-time-highgaspricesparticularlyhitgasconsumptioninthepowerandindustrialsectors.WhilearecoveryTotaldemandfellby6%in2022asatightglobalgasmarketinoveralldemandisalreadyunderwayin2023,thanksinparttoreducedpowersectorgasburnbynearlyaquarterandabruptlylowerLNGimportprices,divergingfactorswilldrivetherecoveryinslowedindustrialdemandgrowthtojust2%.In2023gasdemandtheshorttomediumtermacrossthesemarkets.hasstartedtorecover,drivenbygainsinboththeindustrialandpowersectorsaslowerpriceshaveeasedpressureonprice-Indiasensitivesegmentsoftheeconomy.Naturalgasdemandisexpectedtogrowby4%in2023.Followingasteepdeclinein2022,India’snaturalgasdemandisforecasttoreturntoagrowthtrajectory,supportedbyaIndia’snaturalgasdemandissettogrowbyanaverageannualratepositiveeconomicoutlook,improvinggassupplyavailabilityandofover8%inthe2022-2026period,addingover20bcmofcontinuedgasmarketopeningreforms.ThePetroleumandNaturalincrementaldemand.IndustryissettoremainthelargestGasRegulatoryBoard(PNGRB),thedownstreamregulator,setacontributortothisgrowth,accountingforcloseto40%ofthetotallevelisedunifiedtarifffordomesticnaturalgaspipelinesstartingincrease.Apositiveeconomicoutlook(GDPgrowthisexpectedtofrom1April2023.Thenewtariffsystemwillbenefitconsumersaveragecloseto7%peryearduring2023-2026)andprioritylocatedfarfromdomesticgassupplysourcesand/orLNGterminals.allocationforcertainindustrialsegmentswillhelpthelargestgas-consumingsectorsreboundfromlacklustregrowthin2022-2023.TheIndiannaturalgasmarketisheavilyskewedtowardThefertilisersectorissettobeakeydriverbehindIndia’sgrowingindustrialdemand,whichaccountedforover70%ofnetindustrialgasdemand,asthecountryaimstophaseoutureaincrementalgasdemandduring2017to2021andrepresentedoverimportsbytheendof2025.India’sconventionalureaproductionhalfofannualdemandin2022.Gasdemandforpowergeneration,3Bangladesh,Indonesia,Malaysia,Myanmar,Pakistan,Philippines,ThailandandVietNam.PAGE54IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookcapacityisexpectedtoincreasebyover6Mtpaby2025,whichDynamiceconomicdriversandpopulationgrowthpointtorobustcouldtranslateintoalmost5bcmofincrementalgasdemand.short-termdemandfundamentalsinemergingAsia.Naturalgasdemandisforecasttogrowatanaveragerateof5%peryearFollowingitssteepdeclinein2022,gas-to-powerdemandisbetween2022and2026,withover50%ofincrementaldemandexpectedtorecoverduringtheforecastperiod.PreliminarydataconcentratedinBangladesh,PakistanandThailand.Thiscomesonindicatethatgasburninthepowersectorrosebyto20%y-o-yinthebackofaseveredemandcontractioninBangladeshandthefirsteightmonthsof2023amidmorefavourablenaturalgasPakistanin2022giventheirstrongsensitivitytoimportedgaspricelevels.Despitecontinuingrenewablecapacityadditions,gas-prices.to-powerdemandisexpectedtogrowatanaverageof15%peryearbetween2022and2026ascapacityfactorsimproveatexistingGrowingelectricityrequirementsacrosstheregionandpolicygasplantsinresponsetogrowingpowerdemand.supportinkeymarketstolimitgreenhousegasemissionsshouldleadtoincreasedgaspenetrationinelectricityproduction,evenasDevelopmentofthedistributionnetworkandacontinuedpushtorenewablepowerinvestmentsprogress,placingthepowersectorasfavourgasinhouseholdapplicationsareexpectedtodrivetheprimarydriverofgasdemandgrowth.Gasuseforpoweraverageannualgrowthof7%inresidentialandcommercialgasusegenerationaccountsfornearly60%ofincrementalconsumptionduring2024-2026.overtheforecastperiod,andnearly70%ofthispowersectoruptickisconcentratedinThailand,Pakistan,IndonesiaandMalaysia.EmergingAsiaIndustrialdemand–ledbyfertilisersandlightindustry–makesupNaturalgasdemandacrossemergingAsianmarketsremainedthebulkoftheremaininggasdemandgrowthintheoutlookperiod,broadlystableintheperiod2017to2021.ThepowersectorwiththebiggestincrementsexpectedinBangladesh,Indonesia,accountedforapproximatelyhalfoftotalgasdemandinthisperiod,Malaysia,PakistanandThailand.Residentialandcommercialwhiletheindustrialsectorhasbeentheonetocounterthetrendofdemand,alongwithtransportapplications,makerelativelyminorstagnatingdemand.In2022highgaspriceshitthepowersector,gains.trimminggasdemandforelectricitygenerationby6%.Amorefavourablepriceenvironmentisexpectedtosupporta3%reboundin2023,aprecursortothegrowthexpectedinthemediumterm.PAGE55IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookNaturalgasdemandinIndiaandemergingAsiaissettoexpandbyover20%during2022-2026Naturalgasdemand,IndiaandemergingAsia,2022-2026Forecast350bcm300IEA.CCBY4.0.25020015010050020202021202220232024202520262019IndiaThailandBangladeshIndonesiaMalaysiaPakistanOtheremergingAsianmarketsIEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE56GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookGlobalgasproductiongrowthissettoslowinthemediumtermNaturalgasproductionisexpectedtoexpandbycloseto6%expandingLNGliquefactionfleet,withtheregion’sLNGexports(or240bcm)by2026from2022.NorthAmericaandtheMiddleexpectedtoincreaseby50%(or55bcm)2023and2026.Eastareforecasttoaccountforalmost80%ofthenetincreaseinglobalgasoutputduringthisperiod,whileRussia’snaturalgasInEurasia,naturalgasproductionfellby10%(orover90bcm)inproductionissettoremainwellbelowtherecordlevelsreachedin2022duetothesteepdropinRussia’spipedgassuppliesto2021.ThefeedgassupplyrequirementsofLNGexportprojectsareEuropeandcontinueddeclinesinKazakhandUzbekgasforeseentoaccountforover55%ofthenetincreaseinglobalgasproduction.Thedownwardtrendcontinuedinthefirsteightmonthsoutputintheforecastperiod,reflectingstronggrowthinLNGtradeof2023,withRussia’sgasoutputdownby10%(oralmost45bcm)andanincreasinglyglobalisedgasmarket.y-o-yandUzbekistanrecordingasimilar10%decline(3bcm)amiddeterioratingupstreamactivityinthecountry.EurasiangasInNorthAmerica,naturalgasproductionroseby4%(orclosetoproductionisexpectedtorecoverfromits2023lowsandgrowatan50bcm)in2022,drivenbystrongdomesticdemandgrowthandtheaveragerateof2.5%peryearin2023-2026,primarilydrivenbycontinuedramp-upofofLNGexportsfromtheUnitedStates.Shaleexport-orientedprojectsinRussiaandTurkmenistanaimedatgasoutputintheUnitedStatesgrewbyanimpressive5%(orChina.DespitethegradualrecoveryinRussianproduction,output40bcm),drivingupoverallUSgasproductiontoover1tcmfortheisexpectedtoremain11%(or85bcm)below2021’srecordlevels.firsttimeinthenation’shistory.ThisstronggrowthcontinuedduringQ1-Q32023,whenNorthAmerica’sgasoutputincreasedbyanIntheMiddleEast,naturalgasoutputrosebyanestimated3%(orestimated4%(or30bcm)y-o-y,primarilysupportedbyexpanding20bcm)in2022,primarilydrivenbyexpandinggasdemandintheupstreamactivityinthevastshaleplaysoftheUnitedStates.industrialandpowersectorsofIranandSaudiArabia.Theregion’sNaturalgasproductiongrowthinNorthAmericaisexpectedtogasproductionisexpectedtoexpandbycloseto15%(orslowduringtheforecastperiodto1.8%peryearduring2023-100bcm)by2026comparedwith2022.Thisstronggrowthis2026.ThismoderategrowthtrajectoryisreflectiveofdeclininglargelysupportedbythegrowingdomesticdemandinIrananddomesticgasdemandinCanadaandtheUnitedStates.ThebulkofSaudiArabia,aswellasexportprojectsinIsraelandQatar.TheincrementalgassupplyissettofeedNorthAmerica’srapidlyNorthFieldEastexpansioninQatarissettoincreasethecountry’sLNGexportcapacitybyover40%,requiringalmostPAGE57IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlook50bcm/yrofadditionalfeedgassupplyby2026-27.InIran,thebulkFollowinga4%increasein2022,Europe’snaturalgasproductionofincrementalsupplyissettobemetbytherisingoutputfromtheissettoresumeitsdeclineoverthemediumtermanddropby7%giantSouthParsfield.Phase11oftheSouthParsfieldstarted(orcloseto15bcm/yr)by2026comparedwith2022,astheproducinggasinAugust2023,withinitialoutputestimatedatincreaseinnaturalgasoutputinEasternEuropeanmarkets4-5.5bcm/yrandthepotentialtorampupproductioncloseto(RomaniaandTürkiye)provesinsufficienttooffsetthedeclines20bcm/yrinthecomingyears.InSaudiArabia,productionisprojectedinNorthwesternEurope.Africa’snaturalgasproductionsupportedbytheramp-upoftheNorthArabiafield,theexpansionofdroppedbycloseto6%in2022amidloweroutputinAlgeria,EgyptSouthGhawarandthestart-upoftheJafurahfieldtowardstheendandNigera.Productionissettoexpandby10%(or25bcm/yr)byoftheforecastperiod.InIsrael,theexpansionoftheLeviathan2026,primarilydrivenbyAlgeria,Congo,Egypt,MozambiqueandandTamarfields,togetherwiththestart-upoftheKarishfield,areNigeria.Around60%ofthisadditionalsupplyisexpectedtofeedexpectedtoaddover15bcm/yrofgassupplyby2026.ThiswillAfrica’sexpandingLNGliquefactionfleet,whichissettogrowbyallowIsraeltofurtherincreaseitspipedgasdeliveriesto25%by2026.neighbouringmarkets,includingEgyptandLebanon.InCentralandSouthAmericanaturalgasoutputgrewby3%inNaturalgasproductionintheAsiaPacificregionrosebyamere2022,supportedbyArgentina,PeruandTrinidadandTobago.Gas1%in2022andisexpectedtoexpandby5%(or35bcm)by2026outputisprojectedtoremainbroadlyflatovertheforecastperiod.comparedwith2022.Mostoftheregion’sgrowthisconcentratedinProductiongrowthwillbesupportedbyArgentina,wheretheChina,wheredomesticproductionisprojectedtoincreasebymoredebottleneckingoftheVacaMuertashaleplayshouldallowoutputthan15%from2022levelstoreach250bcmin2025.India’stoexpandby20%(or10bcm)by2026.Pre-saltdevelopmentsinnaturalgasproductionisforeseentogrowatarateof4%peryearBrazilwillsupportmoderategrowthinsalesgasproduction,whileovertheforecastperiod,addingover10bcmofgassupplyby2026.reinjectionissettoexpandfurthertostimulateoilproductionoverAustralia’sgasproductionisexpectedtoremainbroadlyflat,theforecastperiod.InTrinidadandTobago,gasoutputisprojectedaveraging150bcm/yroverthemediumterm.Mostotherproducerstoremainbroadlystable.Additionalsupplyfromtheramp-upoftheintheregionaresettoexperienceproductiondeclinesovertheColibriandMatapalfields,andthestart-upoftheCyprefieldinforecasthorizon,pavingthewayforhigherLNGimportneeds.2025,areexpectedtobelargelyoffsetbydeclinesinthecountry’sageingfields.Theregion’sotherlargeproducers,includingBolivia,aresettofurtherreducetheirgasoutputoverthemediumterm.PAGE58IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookNorthAmericaandtheMiddleEastdriveglobalgassupplyexpansionoverthemediumtermYear-on-yearchangeinnaturalgasproductionbyregion,2019-20262006%Y-o-ychange(bcm)ForecastY-o-ychange(%)1604%IEA.CCBY4.0.2023120EuropeAfrica2%800%40-2%0-4%-40-6%2026-80Y-o-ychange-120IEA.CCBY4.0.-160-200201920202021202220242025AsiaPacificEurasiaMiddleEastNorthAmericaSouthandCentralAmericaPAGE59GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookUpstreamdevelopmentsintheUnitedStates:Export-orientedgrowthUSnaturalgasproductionisexpectedtoexpandby7%(orExport-orientedprojectsdriveUSproductiongrowthover70bcm)by2026comparedwith2022,largelydrivenbytheramp-upofLNGexportsintotheglobalgasmarketandhigherUSnaturalgasproductiongrowthissettoslowinthemediumpipedgasdeliveriestoMexico.Incrementalsupplyisprincipallymettermfromanaveragegrowthrateof4%peryearbetween2018andbyassociatedshalegasproduction,ledbythePermianBasin.In2022to1.5%peryearbetween2022and2026.Thisslowergrowthcontrast,conventionalgasproductionissettocontinuetodeclineisreflectiveofdecliningUSdomesticgasconsumptionandisovertheforecastperiod.Shalegasisexpectedtoaccountforentirelydrivenbyacombinationofthecountry’srapidlyexpandingnearly80%oftotalUSgasproductionby2026.LNGexportsandthecontinuedramp-upofpipedgasdeliveriestoMexico.USgasproductioncontinuedtoexpandstronglyin2023DomesticdemandfornaturalgasintheUnitedStatesisFollowingthesetbackcausedbythepandemicin2020,naturalgasexpectedtodropby2%(or20bcm)during2022-2026.NaturalproductionintheUnitedStateshasbeensteadilyincreasingfromitsgasuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsisprojectedto2019levelof970bcmandsurpassed1tcmin2022toendatdeclineatarateof1%peryearamidefficiencygainsandthe1020bcm.WhiletheAppalachianBasinremainsthelargestsourcegradualdeploymentofheatpumps.Naturalgasdemandinofsupply,withashareof30%oftotalproduction,thelackofindustryisexpectedtogrowatanaveragerateofalmost1%peradditionaltakeawaypipelinecapacityin2022resultedinayear,supportedbytheexpansionofgas-intensiveindustries.productionslowdownandflatproductionratesduringQ1-Q32023.Followingstronggrowthinrecentyears,gasburninthepowerIncontrast,associatedgasproductionrosebyover10%(or9bcm)sectorisforecasttodeclineby8%(orover25bcm)during2022-inthePermianBasinandincreasedbycloseto13%(or10bcm)in2026,amidtherapidexpansionofrenewableelectricitysources.theHaynesvilleShale.Altogether,USgasproductionisexpectedtoConsequently,gas-firedpowergenerationisprojectedtoloseitsincreaseby5%(or35bcm)in2023.ThisgrowthislargelydrivenbypositionasthelargestsourceofelectricitysupplytorenewablesthecontinuedexpansionofLNGexports,strongerpipedgastowardstheendoftheforecastperiod.deliveriestoMexicoandhighergasburninthepowersector.WhileUSdomesticdemandisexpectedtodecline,naturalgasexportsaresettoincreasestronglyoverthemediumterm.USLNGPAGE60IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookexportsareexpectedtoincreaseby60%(or65bcm/yr)by2026improvinggas-to-oilratios.Additionaltakeawaycapacitywillbekeycomparedwith2022.ThisstronggrowthwillbesupportedbythetodebottleneckingthePermianBasin.ExpansionstotheGulfCoastbuild-upofnewLNGliquefactioncapacity,primarilyinLouisianaExpress,PermianHighwayandWhistlerpipelinesaresettoaddandTexas.ThisincludesthePlaqueminesLNGPhases1and217bcm/yroftakeawaycapacitybytheendof2023.TheMatterhorn(27bcm/yr),GoldenPassLNG(21bcm/yr)andtheCorpusChristiExpresspipelineproject(26bcm/yr)isexpectedtoenterserviceinLiquefactionStage3(13.7bcm/yr)projects.Inaddition,pipedgas2024.NaturalgasouputintheAppalachianBasinisprojectedtodeliveriestoMexicoaresettoexpandby20%during2022-2026,increaseby6%(or20bcm)between2022and2026,enabledbypartlydrivenbynewLNGexportterminalsinMexicorelyingonUSthestart-upoftheMountainValleyPipeline(21bcm/yr),whichisfeedgassupplies,includingtheEnergíaCostaAzulLNGprojectexpectedtostartoperationsin2024.Othershalegasproductionis(4.4bcm/yr)andAltamiraFLNG(5.5bcm/yr).Incrementalpipedprojectedtoincreasebycloseto15%(or50bcm)during2022-gasdeliveriestoMexicoshouldbesupportedbytheNorthBaja2026.Incontrast,conventionalnaturalgasproductionisforecasttoXpressexpansionprojectin2023(5bcm/yr)andtheSouthwestdeclinebyover15%(or30bcm)duringtheforecastperiod.Gatewaypipeline(13.5bcm/yr)expectedtocomeonlinein2025.Consequently,theshareofshalegasintotalUSgasoutputisImportsfromCanadaaresettodeclineoverthemediumterm,expectedtoincreasefrom80%in2022toover85%by2026.althoughtheywillremainkeytomeetingseasonaldemandswings.TheriseofcertifiednaturalgasAdditionaltakewaycapacityfromtheAppalachianandPermianBasinswillbekeytoproductiongrowthoverthemediumtermArisingproportionofUSnaturalgasoutputisreceivingthird-partycertification.Accordingtoindustrysurveys,closeto30%ofUSNaturalgasproductiongrowthisprimarilyenabledbygasproductionin2022wascertifiedforitsperformanceagainstupstreamdevelopmentsinthecountry’svastshaleplays,andcertainenvironmental,socialandgovernancemetrics.Thisshareisinparticularbytheramp-upofassociatedpetroleumgas.Theexpectedtoriseoverthemediumterm,withseveralUSproducersPermianBasinisexpectedtobethelargestsourceofincrementalsettingambitioustargetstoreducetheemissionsintensityoftheirsupply,withitsnaturalgasproductionexpectedtoexpandby20%operations.EQTCorporation–thelargestUSgasproducer–aims(or30bcm)between2022and2026.ThisstronggrowthwillbetoreachnetzeroemissionsforScope1and2initsproductionsupportedbythecontinuinglighttightoildevelopmentsandsegmentby2025.PAGE61IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookStronggrowthinLNGexportsandpipedgassuppliestoMexicodriveUSnaturalgasproductionoverthemediumtermKeydriversofnaturalgasproductiongrowth,UnitedStates,2022-20261150Y-o-ychangeinbcm1100IEA.CCBY4.0.10501000950900LNGexportsNetpipedgasexportsDomesticdemand20262022IEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE62GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookTheAppalachianandPermianBasinsaresettosupporttheexpansionofUSnaturalgasproductionDrynaturalgasproductionbymainsource,UnitedStates,2016-2026bcm1200ForecastIEA.CCBY4.0.1000800600400200020172018201920202021202220232024202520262016AppalachianBasianOthergas-focusedplaysPermianBasinOtheroil-focusedplaysOtherdrygasIEA.CCBY4.0.Sourcesofhistoricaldata:IEAanalysisbasedonEIA(2023),Naturalgasproduction.PAGE63GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookUnderpressure:Russia’snaturalgasproductionhascollapsedsinceitsinvasionofUkraineRussia’sinvasionofUkraineandtheconsequentbreak-upofitscontributedtothebulkofthedownwardflexibilitydisplayedin2022.decade-longtieswiththeEuropeanmarketarehavingprofoundIncontrastwithGazprom,Novatek–Russia’ssecond-largestgasimplicationsforitsgasproductionandupstreamdevelopmentsoverproducer–increaseditsgasproductionbycloseto3%amidhigherthemediumterm.Thecountry’snaturalgasoutputin2023isLNGexports.AsRussia’sthird-largestgasproducer,Rosneftsawexpectedtodroptoitslowestlevelsince2009,puttingpressureonitsnaturalgasproductiongrowbyanestimated15%astheupstreamoperationsandpotentiallyleadingtoproductionshut-inscompanycontinuedtorampupnewupstreamprojectsandexpandatageing,vulnerablefields.Russia’sgasproductionisexpectedtoitssalestoRussianendconsumers(primarilyindustrialplayers).expandby9%by2026andtoremain11%(or85bcm)belowtherecordlevelsreachedin2021.ThisreflectsRussia’slimitedoptionsRussia’snaturalgasproductionfellbycloseto10%(oralmostforfindingnewexportoutletsoverthemediumtermtoreplacethe45bcm)inthefirsteightmonthsof2023amiddeterioratingvolumesoncesenttotheEuropeanmarket.Altogether,thisyear’spipedgasexportstoEurope.Gazpromaccountedforvirtuallyalltheforecastforeseesacumulativeproductionlossofover600bcmfordecline,withitsnaturalgasoutputdroppingby22%(or65bcm),the2023-2026periodcomparedwithourpre-warmedium-termwhilebothNovatekandRosneftcountinuedtoincreasetheiroutlook.production.Asaconsequence,Gazprom’sshareofRussia’stotalgasproductionfellfrom68%in2021to55%inthefirstRussia’snaturalgasproductiondroppedby12%(or90bcm)ineightmonthsof2023.2022–itssteepestdeclineinhistory.ThiswasprimarilydrivenbythesharpreductioninpipedgasexportstoEurope(downbyForthefullyearof2023,thecountry’snaturalgasoutputisover80bcm)andlowerdomesticdemand(downby30bcm)amidexpectedtodeclineby8%(orover50bcm)toitslowestlevelthecountry’sworseningmacroeconomicperformance.Gazpromsince2009.Thiswillnaturallyrequirefurtherdownwardflexibilityborethebruntofthedecline,recordingadropof20%(oroverfromRussia’supstreamactivities,includingatthemorevulnerable,100bcm)initsnaturalgasoutput.Gazprom’sgiant,flexibleswingageingfieldsintheNadymPurTaz(NPT)region,whichcouldfieldslocatedinWesternSiberiaandtheYamalpeninsula(includingpotentiallyfaceproductionshut-ins.Zapolyarnoe,Urengoyskoe,YamburgskoeandBovanenkovo)PAGE64IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookGazpromborethebruntoftheRussia’sgasproductiondeclinein2022Year-on-yearchangeinnaturalgasproductionbykeycompanies,Russia,2021-2022Y-o-ychangeinbcm750IEA.CCBY4.0.700650600550500GazpromNovatekRosneftOthers20222021IEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonvariouscompanyreports.PAGE65GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookNorelief:Russia’supstreamgassectorfacesableakmedium-termoutlookRussia’snaturalgasproductionisforecasttogrowatarateofThisforecasttakesaconservativeviewonRussia’sLNGcloseto3%peryearbetween2023and2026,primarilysupportedprojectdevelopments,consideringthefinancialandtechnologicalbythecontinuedexpansionofpipedgasdeliveriestoChina,higheruncertaintiesduetothesanctionsimposedonRussiafollowingitsLNGexportsandagradualrecoveryindomesticgasdemand.TheinvasionofUkraine.ArcticLNGTrain1(8.9bcm/yr)isexpectedtoramp-upofgasfieldsinEasternSiberiaandtheFarEastisstartupattheendof2023,althoughuncertaintiesremainarounditsexpectedtoaccountforcloseto40%ofRussia’snetproductionramp-upscheduleandinitialutilisationrates.Thestart-upofTrain2growthovertheforecastperiod.isexpectedtobedelayedto2025,withproductionrampingupduring2025-2026.ThecommissioningofTrain3isassumedtobeTheEuropeanUnion’sdecisiontophaseoutRussiangasimportsdelayedbeyondourforecasthorizon.assoonaspossibleprimarilyaffectsupstreamdevelopmentsinWesternSiberiaandtheYamalpeninsula.ThisisreflectedinInEasternSiberia,theChayandinskoyefieldissettoreachitsGazprom’samendedten-yearstrategyfortheperiod2024-2033,nameplatecapacityof25bcm/yrby2024,enablingtheramp-upofwhichnolongerconsidersEuropetobeastrategicmarket.ThegassuppliestoChinaviathePowerofSiberiapipeline.Thestart-upoftheKharasaveyfield(32bcm/yrnameplatecapacity)Kovyktinskoyefieldwasofficiallycommissionedandconnectedtowasdelayedfrom2023to2024whiletheramp-upofproductionthePowerofSiberiapipelinesystemattheendof2022.Theratesremainsuncertain.Theplannedexpansionofthegiantcontinuedramp-upofthetwofieldswillallowRussiatoincreaseitsBovanenkovofieldfromitscurrent115bcm/yrnameplatecapacitypipedgasexportstoChinato38bcm/yrby2025viaPowerofto140bcm/yrfacesanuncertainfutureamidthelackofexportSiberia.Inaddition,Gazpromsigneda25-yearagreementwithoutletsandisexpectedtobedelayedbeyondourforecasthorizon.China’sCNPCtosupply10bcm/yrofpipedgasviathe“FarSimilarly,thesupergiantTambeyfield–previouslyplannedtostartEasternroute”.TheexpectedresourcebaseistheYuzhno-upin2026–isforeseentobedelayed.ThefieldwasexpectedtoKirinskoyefield,whichhasadesigncapacityof21bcm/yr.ThefeedtheplannedBalticLNGproject(18bcm/yr),whichisstalledfieldissettobecommissionedby2025andproduceaninitialfollowingthewithdrawalofwesternengineeringandconstruction5bcm/yr.ThePowerofSiberia2project(50bcm/yr)isnotserviceproviders.expectedtobecommissionedovertheforecastperiodduetothelackofalong-termofftakeagreementwithChinesebuyers.PAGE66IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookRussia’snaturalgasproductionisexpectedtoremain85bcmbelowits2021levelsby2026Naturalgasproduction,Russia,2019-2026770Y-o-ychangeinbcmForecast700630IEA.CCBY4.0.2020202120222023202420252026560GazpromNovatekRosneft490IEA.CCBY4.0.4203502802101407002019OthersRussia-totalnaturalgasproductionSourcesofhistoricaldata:IEAanalysisbasedonvariouscompanyreports.PAGE67GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookEurope’snaturalgasproductionissettocontinuetodeclineoverthemediumtermEurope’snaturalgasproductionisexpectedtocontinuetodeclineandgasproductionintheNorthSeacouldprovideupsidepotentialoverthemediumterm,despiterenewedinterestinupstreamtothecurrentforecast.IntheNetherlands,thegiantGroningendevelopmentsinsomekeymarketsafterRussia’sinvasionoffieldceasedproductionon1October2023,markingtheendofitsUkraine.OECDEurope’snaturalgasproductionhasdroppedbyphase-outwhichstartedin2018duetoearthquakescausedby33%(or90bcm/yr)since2010,leadingtoahigherrelianceonproductionfromthefield.Productionfromsmallfieldsisexpectedtoimports,including(initially)fromRussia.TheNetherlandsandthecontinuetodeclineovertheforecastperiod,leadingtoanoverallUnitedKingdomaccountedforover90%ofthenetdecline.Thisdecreaseofover40%(almost10bcm)inDutchnaturalgasoutputdownwardtrendwastemporarilyreversedin2022,whenEuropeanby2026comparedwith2022.gasproductionroseby4%(or6bcm)amidthegascrisistriggeredbyRussia.EuropeangasoutputreturnedtoitsdownwardtrajectoryInDenmark,theTyragasfieldhasbeenunderredevelopmentin2023,withproductiondownby4%(or3.5bcm)inthefirsteightsinceSeptember2019andisexpectedtorestartproductioninthemonthsoftheyearonhighermaintenanceinNorwayandlowerUK2023/24heatingseason,withacapacityof2.8bcm/yr.InRomania,andDutchoutput.theMidiaGasDevelopmentProjectstartedproductonin2022andissettorampupgassuppliesto1bcm/yrduring2023-2026.Europe’snaturalgasproductionisforecasttodropby7%(orProjectpartnerstookFIDinJune2023onthedevelopmentofthecloseto15bcm/yr)by2026comparedwith2022,astheincreaseNeptunDeepoffshoregasfieldintheBlackSea.FirstgasisinnaturalgasoutputinEasternEuropeanmarketsisnotsufficientexpectedin2027,beyondourforecasthorizon,andproductiontooffsetthedeclinesprojectedinNorthwesternEurope.Norwayiscouldreach8bcm/yratplateau.Accordingtoindustryestimates,settoremainthebackboneofEuropeangasproduction,withItalycouldpotentiallydoubleits3.4bcm/yrgasoutputby2025bythecountry’snaturalgasoutputexpectedtoremainbroadlyflatandoptimisingproductionatexistingfieldsandbyacceleratingtheaverage125bcm/yrbetween2023and2026.Inthedevelopmentsofalreadylicensedprojects.InTürkiye,thegiantUnitedKingdom,ageinggasfieldsintheNorthSeaareexpectedSakaryagasfieldwascommissionedinApril2023.Naturalgastoreducethecountry’snaturalgasoutputbyover30%(ormoreproductionisexpectedtorampupto3.6bcm/yrduringthefirstthan10bcm)by2026comparedwith2022.Thegovernment’splanphasein2023-2025,andthentocloseto15bcm/yrduringtheannouncedinJuly2023tograntmorethan100newlicencesforoilsecondphaseafter2026.PAGE68IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookEurope’snaturalgasproductionisexpectedtodeclineby7%by2026comparedwith2023Naturalgasproduction,OECDEurope,2019-2026240Forecast200bcm160IEA.CCBY4.0.1208040020202021202220232024202520262019NorwayRepublicofTürkiyeIEA.CCBY4.0.EuropeanUnionUnitedKingdomSourcesofhistoricaldata:IEAanalysisbasedonEurostat(2023),Energystatistics.PAGE69GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookWakingtheDeadCow:VacaMuertaissettodriveArgentina’sgasproductiongrowthArgentina’snaturalgasproductionisexpectedtoexpandbygasshareisexpectedtorisetocloseto45%ofArgentina’stotalover20%(or10bcm)between2022and2026asthecontinuedgasoutput.declineinconventialgasproductionismorethanoffsetbythecountry’srapidlygrowingshalegasoutput.ThisgrowthisprimarilyThestrongincreaseinnaturalgasproductionintheVacaMuertasupportedbythedebottleneckingoftheVacaMuertashaleplayshaleplayhasledtotakeawayconstraintsinrecentyears,andwillallowArgentinatoreduceitsnaturalgasimportnecessitatingthebuildingofnewpipelinesystems.Thefirstphaserequirementsoverthemediumterm.oftheNéstorKirchnerGaspipelinewascommissionedinJuly2023,stretching573kmfromVacaMuertatoBuenosAires.TheArgentina’sdomesticgassupplyhasundergoneaprofoundpipeline’sinitialcapacityis4bcm/yr,tobeexpandedto8bcm/yrbytransformationsince2012,whenthefirstdevelopmentactivitytheendof2023throughtheadditionofcompressorstations.ThestartedinVacaMuerta,theworld’ssecond-largestshalegassecondphasewillallowgasdeliveriestoreachSanJeronimoindeposit.Argentina’sconventionalnaturalgasproductionSantaFeprovince,whiletheoveralltransmissioncapacityofthedeclinedbyover40%(or15bcm/yr)between2014and2022amidpipelinesystemwillbeexpandedtoaround16bcm/yr.Thehigherdecliningoutputfromageingfields.Thisdeclinewasmorethandeliveriestothecoastalarea,madepossiblebythepipeline,aresetoffsetbythecountry’srapidlygrowingunconventionalgastoreduceArgentina’sLNGimportrequirementsinthecomingproduction,leadingtoanincreaseof2%peryearinthecountry’syears.Thefinancingfortheconstructionofthesecondphasewastotalgasoutputbetween2014and2022.Shalegassupply–securedbytheendof2022andcommissioningisexpectedintheprimarilyfromVacaMuerta–expandedfromalmostzeroin2014tofirsthalfof2024.Inaddition,Argentinaplanstoreverseflows18bcmin2022.Inaddition,tightgasproductionmorethanthroughtheNorthernGasPipelinetoreplaceimportsfromBoliviadoubledduringthesameperiod,expandingbycloseto5bcm.Asa(standingataround3bcmin2023)andpotentiallyexportnaturalconsequence,theshareofshalegasinArgentina’stotalgasgastoChile,andtosouthernandcentralBrazilviaBolivia.Asaproductionrosefromjust1%in2014to37%in2022.ThistrendconsequenceofthedebottleneckingofVacaMuerta,theshareofcontinuedoverthefirsteightmonthsof2023,withconventialgasshalegasinArgentina’stotalgasproductionissettoincreasefromproductiondecliningby6%(or1bcm)y-o-y,whileshalegasoutput37%in2022toaround60%by2026.rosebyover16%(or2bcm).Forthefullyearof2023,theshalePAGE70IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookArgentina’snaturalgasproductionissettoexpandby20%by2026ForecastNaturalgasproduction,Argentina,2014-202660bcm40IEA.CCBY4.0.2002015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262014ConventionalgasTightgasShalegasIEA.CCBY4.0.Sourcesofhistoricaldata:IEAanalysisbasedonArgentineMinistryofEconomy(2023),Produccióndegasconvencionalynoconvencional.PAGE71GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookGlobalLNGsupplyisexpectedtoexpandby25%by2026GlobalLNGtradeisforecasttoexpandbynearly25%(orjustover2023,Europe’sLNGinflowsareexpectedtoremainclosetotheir130bcm)by2026comparedwith2022,primarilydrivenbyLNGrecord2022levels,whileAsianLNGdemandisforecasttoreturntoliquefactioncapacityadditionsinNorthAmericaandQatar.Thegrowthandriseby5%.ThisisprimarilydrivenbytherecoveryinoverallinvestmentvalueofnewLNGexportcapacitycomingonlineChina’sLNGdemand.Thecountry’sLNGimportsgrewbyanduringtheforecastperiodisestimatedatclosetoUSD130billion.impressive13%y-o-yinQ1-Q32023andareexpectedtoincreaseOver70%ofthisincrementalsupplyisexpectedtoarriveontheby14%forthefullyearof2023,albeitremainingbelowtherecordmarketin2025or2026,althoughprojectdelaysandvaryingramp-levelsreachedin2021.upratescouldalterthisforecast.ThestronggrowthinLNGsupplycouldpotentiallyalleviatemarkettensionsandmoderategassupplyNorthAmericaandQatararesettodrivetheexpansionofLNGsecurityrisksinthesecondhalfofthedecade.exportsoverthemediumterm,togetheraccountingforover80%ofincrementalLNGsupplybetween2022and2026.IntheGlobalLNGsupplygrewat4%in2022andat3%inQ1-Q3UnitedStates,LNGexportsareexpectedtoexpandbyover60%2023.Thismodestgrowthisreflectiveoflimitedliquefaction(or65bcm)by2026comparedwith2022.Hence,thecapacityadditions,outagesatmajorexportfacilitiesanddecliningUnitedStatesaloneissettocontributeforaroundhalfoffeedgassupplyatLNGplantsfedbyageingfields.Altogether,LNGincrementalLNGsupply,reinforcingitspositionastheworld’ssupplyissettoincreasebyjustover40bcmduring2022-2023,notleadingLNGexporter.Consequently,theUSshareofglobalLNGsufficienttooffsetthedeclineinRussianpipedgasdeliveriestosupplyisprojectedtoincreasefrom20%in2022to25%by2026.Europe(downby122bcmin2023comparedwith2021)andhenceThisstronggrowthisprimarilysupportedbythecommissioningofcontributingtotightermarketconditions.TheUnitedStatesalonethreelargeLNGexportprojectsinLousianaandTexas.AttheaccountedforalmosthalfofthetotalincrementalLNGsupplysinceGoldenPassLNGexportfacility(21bcm/yr),Train1isexpectedtothestartof2022andissettobecometheworld’slargestLNGstartoperationsinQ12024,whileTrains2and3aresettorampupexporterin2023,aheadofQatarandAustralia.Thegassupplyproductionduring2025and2026.ThefirstphaseoftheshockcausedbyRussialedtoreconfiguredLNGtradeflows,PlaqueminesLNGprojectissettostartoperationsinthesecondwithEuropeincreasingitsLNGimportsby60%toalmost170bcmhalfof2024,followedbytheramp-upofthesecondphasein2025-in2022,whiledeliveriestoAsiadroppedby7%.Forthefullyearof2026,addingatotalliquefactioncapacityof20bcm/yr.TheCorpusPAGE72IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookChristiStage3expansionproject(over13.6bcm/yr)isexpectedinitialutilisationratesoftheproject.InAfrica,theramp-upofCoraltostartoperationsbytheendof2025andrampupproductionSouthFLNGinMozambique,togetherwiththestart-upofTortueduring2026.InBritishColumbia,onCanada’swestcoast,theLNGFLNGandCongoFLNG,aresettoaddover12bcm/yrofCanadaPhase1projectissettorampupdeliveriesin2025andliquefactioncapacity.TheNigeriaLNGTrain7(9.5bcm/yr)is2026withanoverallcapacityof19bcm/yr.InMexico,thefirstexpectedtobeginoperationsin2026andrampuptofullcapacityphaseoftheEnergíaCostaAzulLNGproject(4.4bcm/yr)isbeyondourforecasthorizon.IntheAsiaPacificregion,AustraliaexpectedtostartproducingfirstLNGbytheendof2024andrampandIndonesiaaresettoleadtheexpansionofLNGliquefactionupexportsin2025.WhilelocatedonthewestcoastofMexico,thecapacity.TheTangguhLNGTrain3(5.2bcm/yr)inIndonesiaisLNGplantwillbefedbytheRosaritopipelinewithnaturalgassettobeginproductioninH22023andrampupLNGsuppliessourcedfromWestTexasandtheRockyMountainregion.Induring2024.InAustralia,PlutoLNGTrain2isexpectedtoaddition,offshoreatAltamirainMexico,aninitialfloatingLNGproducefirstLNGin2026andrampupoperationstofullcapacityin(FLNG)productionunitissettobedeployedfromOctober20232027.ReducedfeedgassupplytoLNGprojectslinkedtoageingwithacapacityof1.9bcm/yr.Accordingtotheprojectdeveloper,fieldsisexpectedtoreduceLNGoutputbyaround7bcm/yrbyadditionalFLNGunitsaretobeinstalledduring2024,scalingtotal2026intheAsiaPacificregion.liquefactioncapacityupto5.5bcm/yrovertheforecastperiod.Fromademand-sideperspective,theAsiaPacificregionisQatartookFIDontheNorthFieldEastexpansionprojectin2021expectedtoabsorbtheequivalentoftotalincrementalLNGsupply–thelargestFIDinthehistoryofLNGwithacapacityof45bcm/yr.duringthe2023-2026period,largelydrivenbyChina'srenewedTheprojectconsistsoffourliquefactiontrainsandisexpectedtoappetite.China’sLNGimportsaresettodoubleby2026comparedrampupexportsduring2026-27.InRussia,firsttrainofArcticwith2022,partlyenabledbythecountry’sportfoliooflong-termLNG2isexpectedtostartoperationsbytheendof2023withacontracts.Europe’sLNGimportsaresettoaveragejustovercapacityof8.9bcm/yr.Thestart-upofTrain2isexpectedtobe165bcm/yrbetween2023and2026,slightlylowerthanin2022.Adelayeduntil2025,withproductionrampingupduring2025-2026.furtherreductioninRussianpipedgassuppliescouldincreaseEUThecommissioningofTrain3isassumedtobedelayedbeyondourLNGimportrequirementsbyanadditional20bcm/yr.forecasthorizon.ConsideringthesanctionsimposedonRussia,significantuncertaintiesremainaroundtheramp-upscheduleandPAGE73IEA.CCBY4.0.GasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termmarketoutlookNorthAmericaandQataraccountfor80%ofincrementalLNGsupplyduring2023-2026Year-on-yearchangeinLNGsupplybykeyexportregion,2016-202680Year-on-yearchangeinbcmIEA.CCBY4.0.NorthAmericaMiddleEastEuropeEurasiaCentralandSouthAmericaAsiaPacificAfricaTotaly-o-ychange6040200-2020172018201920202021202220232024202520262016IEA.CCBY4.0.Sourcesofhistoricaldata:IEAanalysisbasedonICIS(2023),LNGEdge.PAGE74Medium-TermGasReport2023SpotlightonAfricaSpotlightonAfricaIEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE75Medium-TermGasReport2023SpotlightonAfricaHasAfricareachedaturningpointfornaturalgas?Withalmostone-fifthoftheworld’sinhabitants,Africaisthecountries–Egypt,AlgeriaandNigeria–mainlytoproducepowercontinentwiththeyoungestandfastest-growingpopulationandalsoforairconditioning.WeforecastAfrica’sannualgasconsumptiontothelowestlevelofenergyaccess.Despiteholdingover9%oftheincreasebyanannualaverageof3%during2022-2026.world’sprovenreservesandavastpotentialforgreenenergy,Africaremainsthemostenergy-poorcontinent.AccordingtotheTheuseofdomesticnaturalgasproductionmakessenseforIEAAfricaEnergyOutlook2022,nearly600millionpeople,or43%Africanconsumercountries,offeringtheconsiderableadvantageofofthetotalpopulation,havenoaccesstoelectricity.Itssignificantlowerenergycostscomparedwithfuelimports.Large-scalegasnaturalgasreservescouldturnAfricaintoakeyplayerintheglobalprojectspromisenewopportunitiesforexportrevenues,althoughgasmarket,whileimprovingenergyaccessforitsrapidlygrowingtheyarenotevenlyspread,sincethedistributionofresourcespopulation.showsregionalinequalities.AlthoughAfricanleadersareembracingthetransitiontocleanenergy,andtheregionhasenormousAfricancountriesproducedaround6%oftheworld’snaturalgasinrenewableenergyresources,theyalsoclaimthattheyneedtobe2022,aproportionthathasdoubledsince2000androughlytripledabletodeveloptheirfossilfuelresourcestomeettheirdevelopmentsince1990.ThemainproducingcountriesareAlgeria,Egyptandneedsandprovideaccesstomodernenergyfortheirpopulations.Nigeria,togetheraccountingforover80%ofthecontinent'sGovernmentsexpecttangibleeconomicgainsforsociety,suchasproductionin2022.Inthemediumterm,upto2026,weforecast6%jobcreationandskillsdevelopment.growthinAfrica’sgasproduction,aratethatcouldhavebeenhigherwithoutupstreamconcernsonlegacyprojectsandhadTheclimateandenvironmentalimpactsofnaturalgasprojectsandprojectsunderdevelopmentnotexperienceddelaysduetosecuritytheriskofstrandedassetsshouldnotbeputaside.Thelackofandsoaringcosts.existingmidstreaminfrastructuretoallowdomesticaccesstogasisanissueandfinancingtheseprojectswillbecomeincreasinglyAfricancountriesexpecttobenefitfromthedevelopmentofgascomplicated.Nevertheless,naturalgascanbepartofthesolutionprojectstomeettheirgrowingenergyneedsinthemediumterm.forbuildingresilientandsustainableenergysystemsthatcanhelpGasdemandinAfricaisconcentratedinthemajorproducingAfricareduceitsGHGemissions.PAGE76IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023SpotlightonAfricaDomesticgasremainsunderdevelopedinAfrica,despitesignificantreservesTopfiveAfricancountriesbynaturalgasreservesin2021Naturalgasreserves(mcm)IEA.CCBY4.0.Nigeria,32.5%ofAfricanreservesin2021Algeria,25.4%Mozambique,16.0%Egypt,10.1%Libya,8.5%RestofAfrica,7.5%0510IEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonEIA(2023),USEnergyInformationAdministration.PAGE77Medium-TermGasReport2023SpotlightonAfricaWideregionaldisparitiesexistinAfrica’sgasproductionforecastAfricaaccountedfornearly40%ofnewnaturalgasdiscoveries(67bcm)amongthetopthreegas-producingcountries,alongwithgloballyinthepastdecade,mainlyinMozambique,Mauritania,Nigeria(40bcm).Asaresultoftheenergycrisistriggeredin2022,SenegalandTanzania.However,socio-politicalinstabilityandsomeEuropeancompaniesshowedrenewedinterestinsecurityissuesmakeAfricaahigh-riskenvironmentforthegasagreementswithNorthAfricanstatesalreadyconnectedtoindustry.ThisresultsinagapbetweenthepotentialandtheactualSouthernEuropeviapipelines.Forexample,Algeria,whichislinkedgasproductionprojectsunderdevelopment.ThedelaysbypipelinetoItalyandSpain,hasincreaseditsexportstoitsmainexperiencedbytheMozambiqueLNGprojectareagoodcustomersinSouthernEuropeoverthepastyear,asEniaddedgasillustration:originallyscheduledtodeliveritsfirstLNGcargoinassetstoitsAlgerianportfolio.GasproductionfromAlgeriais2024,andwithplanstoproduceupto60bcm/yr,theprojectnowexpectedtogrowby10%overtheforecastperiod2022-2026.seesLNGproductionstartingin2028attheearliest.Egypt’ssupplyisestimatedtodeclineby7%duetoalackofmajordiscoveriescomingonlineandanaturaldeclinefromproducingGasproductioninAfricahasincreasedbyanaverageof2.5%perfields.Nigeria’sgasproductionisestimatedtograduallyincreaseyearbetween2011and2021,abovetheworldaverageof2.2%.Itby15%,thankstohigherfeedgasavailability.Overall,weanticipatereached246bcmin2022,representingjustover6%ofglobalaslightincreaseinthecontinent’sgasproductionto255bcminproduction.Africahasthepotentialtobecomeamuchmore2023.ThiswillbeprimarilydrivenbysustainedproductioninAlgeriaimportantsourceofglobalsupply.OfthenaturalgasproducedinandfullproductionrealisationfromtheEni-operatedCoralSouth2022,36%wasexported,ofwhich61%wasintheformofLNG.FloatingLNG(FLNG)projectinMozambique,whichwasbroughtThemaindestinationsareEurope(60%oftotalvolumesexportedinonlineinlate2022.2022,bypipelineandintheformofLNG)andAsia(lessthan10%oftotalvolumesexportedin2022,representinghalfofwhatwasInourmedium-termoutlook,weforecastgasproductiongrowthofexportedtoAsiain2021inabsoluteterms).10%duringthe2022to2026period,takingintoconsiderationgraduallyincreasingproductioninAlgeriaandNigeria,andNorthAfricaremainsthebiggestcontributortogasproductionproductionstartinginSenegal,Mauritania,CongoandGabon.onthecontinent,withAlgeria(101bcmin2022)andEgyptPAGE78IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023SpotlightonAfricaNaturalgasproductioninAfricaisexpectedtogrowby10%by2026,drivenmainlybynewprojectsinNigeria,Senegal,MauritaniaandCongoNaturalgasproductionbycountry,Africa,2000-2026300Naturalgasproduction(bcm)2005201020152020Forecast250200IEA.CCBY4.0.20251501005002000AlgeriaEgyptNigeriaMozambiqueLibyaAngolaEquatorialGuineaOtherNorthAfricaRestofAfricaIEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE79Medium-TermGasReport2023SpotlightonAfricaGasdemandgrowthisexpectedtoslowinmatureNorthAfricanmarketsAfricangasconsumptionhasalmosttripledsince2000,andthewhilesimultaneouslysucceedinginboostingdomesticgasmainconsumersarealsothemajorproducingortransitcountriesofpenetration,mainlyintheformofgas-firedpowergenerationtoNorthAfricaplusNigeria.Inabsoluteterms,naturalgasdemandinmeettherisingcoolingdemand.Gas-to-poweraccountsforclosetoAfricareached172bcmin2022,comparabletotheannual40%oftotalnaturalgasconsumptioninAlgeriaand55%inEgypt.consumptionofCentralandSouthAmericaandrepresentingonlyIndustryisthesecondsector,accountingfor23%oftotalnatural4%ofglobalnaturalgasdemand,oratenthoftheannualgasconsumptioninAlgeria(drivenbypetrochemicalsproduction)consumptionofNorthAmerica.Overall,weforecastannualgasand18%inEgypt(drivenbyfertiliserandureaproduction).Ourconsumptiontoincreasebyanannualaverageof3%inAfricaasaforecastexpectsmodestgrowthingasdemandinAlgeria,atanwhole,overtheperiod2022-2026.averageof1.9%peryearuntil2026,duetogassupplyconstraintsandadowngradedeconomicenvironment,andgrowthrevisedNewnaturalgasmarketsareemerging,mainlyforpowerdownwardstoanaverageof3.6%peryearinEgypt.Thisincreasegeneration,asinGhana,SouthAfricaandSenegal,tomeetindomesticgasdemandthreatensEgypt'sLNGexportambitionsgrowingelectricityneedsandreplaceliquidfuels.ThesenewandhighlightstheneedtoimportgasbypipelinefromIsrael.marketsaresupportedbythedevelopmentofproductionaswellasthecommissioningofnewimportinfrastructure.ThecurrentAlthoughnaturalgashasgreatpotentialintheregion,theshareofenvironmentofhighpricesandtightsupplyisparticularlynaturalgasintheenergymixinsub-SaharanAfricaremainschallengingfortheseprice-sensitiveemergingAfricanmarketsandlimited.Nigeriaisthelargestnaturalgasmarketinsub-SaharanislikelytohaveanegativeimpactonthegrowthoutlookfornaturalAfrica,withanestimated21bcmconsumedin2022.Thepowergasconsumption.generationsectorinNigeriaisthemainuserofnaturalgas,accountingfor40%oftotalconsumption,butsuffersfromalackofNorthAfricacurrentlyaccountsforaboutthree-quartersofthegassupplyandnetworkcapacitytorunpowerplants.Ourforecastcontinent’snaturalgasconsumption,whichremainsconcentratedinanticipatesaverageannualgasconsumptiongrowthof2.8%duringEgyptandAlgeria,Together,theyaccountfornearly70%oftotalthe2023to2026period,takingintoconsiderationuncertaintiesnaturalgasconsumptionontheAfricancontinent,at117bcminregardingaccesstoinvestment.2022.ThesetwomarketshavedevelopedstrongexportindustriesPAGE80IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023SpotlightonAfricaSub-SaharanAfricaaccountsformorethanhalfofthecontinent’sgasconsumptiongrowthto2026,drivenbythepowersectorandindustryIEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE81IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023SpotlightonAfricaLNGfocus:KeyprojectsTherecentsurgeinoffshoreFLNGproductionsuggeststhatmoreAfricangascouldreachtheglobalmarketoverthenextdecade.In2022aroundaquarterofthenaturalgasproducedinAfrica,orFourFLNGunitsfortheregionarecurrentlyunderconstructionor62bcm,wasshippedtointernationalmarketsintheformofLNG,reactivation.ThefirstoftheseistheGolarGimiFLNGunitallocatedlargelydrivenbyNigeria(accountingfor41%ofLNGproductionintoBP'sGTAproject,scheduledtocomeonstreamin2024attheAfrica),followedbyAlgeria(23%)andEgypt(16%).LNGearliest.productionfromAfricaaccountedfor11%oftheworldwideLNGsupply.However,Africa’strackrecordforLNGexportingprojectsisnotencouraging.TheMozambiqueLNGprojecthasbeenhaltedsinceAfrica’sLNGexportcapacityiscurrentlyjustover100bcm/yr.2021followingthedeclarationofforcemajeureduetosecurityrisks.Duringthepastdecadeanduntilrecently,overadozennewLNGTheGTALNGprojectisencounteringproblemswithcostoverruns,exportprojectswereplannedandproposedinAfrica.Inthelateenvironmentalconcernsandcostinflation.Theseproblemsare2010sFIDsweretakenforCoralSouthFLNGinMozambiqueandweighingontheprospectsforinvestmentdecisionsforotherAfricantheGreaterTortueAhmeyim(GTA)LNGprojectonthemaritimeLNGprojects.borderofMauritaniaandSenegal,followedbylargerprojectssuchasMozambiqueLNGandNigeriaTrain7.AdditionalprojectshaveSincethebeginningoftheenergycrisisin2022,someinternationalbeenproposed,includingGTAPhase2,RovumaLNGinoilcompaniesandEUmemberstateshavefocusedonLNGMozambique,CameroonPhase2andNigeriaFloatingLNGprojectstosecuresuppliesinatightglobalgasmarket.Existing(FLNG),withoutreachingFIDtodate.Intotal,newprojectsinsub-LNGcontractshavebeenrenegotiatedtoexportmoreLNGtoSaharanAfricacouldaddsome90bcmofannualLNGcapacitybyEurope.ItalyshouldcertainlybenefitfromEni'seffortsinthis2030.Withintheforecasthorizon,only17bcmofadditionalLNGrespect.Overthepastyear,thecompanysignedagreementswithproductioncapacityisexpectedtobecommissionedby2026,Egypt,AlgeriaandAngola,whilelaunchingLNGexportsfromthecorrespondingtoprojectsalreadyunderconstructionornotCoralfieldinoffshoreMozambiqueandconcludinganagreementsuspendedforsecurityreasons.withtheRepublicofCongoonitsFLNGprojectfortheMarineXIIPAGE82IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023SpotlightonAfricafields.Similarly,BritishgiantBPannouncedearlierthisyearthatitIEA.CCBY4.0.plannedtotakeFIDonPhase1oftheYakaar-TerangaLNGproject,offthecoastofSenegal,beforetheendofthisyear.Meanwhile,ShellandNorway’sEquinorrevealedinmid-MaythattheyhadcompletednegotiationsontheTanzaniaLNGprojectandexpectedtosignahostgovernmentagreementandaproductionsharingagreementsoon.Yet,consideringthelongleadtimesofLNGprojects,thesecommitmentsarenotgoingtochangethegameforAfricanLNGintheimmediatefuture.Forthetimebeing,thecontinent'sLNGactivitieswillcontinuetobedominatedbyestablishedplayers:Egypt,AlgeriaandNigeria(and,toalesserextent,EquatorialGuineaandAngola).AlgeriaandEgyptarelikelytomaintaintheircurrentannualLNGcapacityofaround40bcmand17bcmrespectively.Inourmedium-termforecast,Africa’sshareofglobalLNGsupplyisexpectedtoremainbroadlyflatduring2022-2026.Securityissuesandpoorgovernanceareweighingonprojectdevelopmentdespitethevastreservebaseandrelativelylowcostofsupply.Thewindowofopportunitytomonetisetheregion'ssignificantgasresourcescouldbelimited,withUSandQatariprojectsexpectedtostartdeliveringsignificantvolumesby2027,andthepotentialforLNGdemandtofallfrom2030onwards,drivenbydecarbonisationtargets.PAGE83Medium-TermGasReport2023SpotlightonAfricaLNGproductioninAfricaisexpectedtogrowby25to30%by2026,mainlydrivenbyNigeriaandnewexportingcountriesY-o-ychangeinAfrica’snaturalgasLNGexportsbykeycountries,2018-20261515%Y-o-ychangein%Y-o-ychangeinbcmForecastIEA.CCBY4.0.910%5%30%-3-5%-9-10%-1520192020202120222023202420252026-15%2018NigeriaAlgeriaAngolaEgyptEquatorialGuineaOthersY-o-ychange(totalAfrica)IEA.CCBY4.0.Cameroon,Congo,Mozambique,MauritaniaandSenegal.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonICIS(2023),ICISLNGEdge.PAGE84Medium-TermGasReport2023SpotlightonAfricaAconcertedefforttolimitflaringandmethaneemissionsinAfricacouldmake35bcmofnaturalgasavailableSubstantialquantitiesofgascurrentlyproducedinAfricadonotdevicesthatemitmethaneduringnormaloperations.Gasthatmakeittomarketbecausetheyareflaredoremitteddirectlyintothewouldbeflaredcanbecapturedandinjectedintopipelines,turnedatmosphere.In2022closeto30bcmofnaturalgaswasflaredandintootheruseableproducts,orconvertedintoelectricalpowerthatnearly15bcmwaslost,togetherrepresentingalmost20%ofactualcanbeusedonsiteorsoldbacktotheelectricitygrid.Portablegasproduction.Reducingflaring,ventingandmethaneleakscanCNGormini-LNGfacilitiesareavailabletotreatgasonsiteandbringadoubledividend:aboostinnaturalgassalesandreducedenableitsuseinnearbyfacilities.greenhousegasemissions.Reducingmethaneemissions,themaincomponentofnaturalgas,isoneofthebestopportunitiesavailableInparallelwithindustryaction,newpoliciesandregulationswillbeforlimitingthenear-termeffectsofclimatechange.Reducingflaringneededtoensurethatcompanieshavetheincentivetoact.Manywouldalsolowerlocalairpollution.AfricancountriesparticipateintheGlobalMethanePledge,therebycommittingtocollectivelyreduceglobalmethaneemissionsbyatAconcertedefforttolimitflaringandmethaneemissionsinAfricaleast30%below2020levelsby2030andtomovetowardsthecouldmakearound35bcmofnaturalgasavailabletomarkets.Thehighest-tierIPCCinventorymethodologies.Severalcountries,IEAestimatesthatitistechnicallypossibletoavoidaround80%ofincludingNigeriaandEgypt,alsoendorsetheWorldBank’sZeromethaneemissionsfromoilandgasoperationsinAfricaandnearlyRoutineFlaringby2030Initiative,andaretakingactiontocurtail95%offlaredvolumes.Aroundhalfofthe35bcmcouldbeavoidedmethaneemissionsandflaring.In2022Nigeriaissuedguidelinesatnonetcostbecausetheoutlaysfortheabatementmeasuresareforemissionsmanagementintheupstreamoilandgassectortolessthanthemarketvalueoftheadditionalgasthatcanbesupporttheeliminationofroutinegasflaringby2030,anda60%capturedandsold.reductioninfugitivemethaneemissionsby2031.ThewaystolimitflaringandmethaneemissionsfromoilandgasInternationalsupportisavailabletosupportsuchefforts.Foroperationsarewellknown.Methaneabatementmeasuresincludeexample,theEUexternalenergyengagementstrategyincludesinstallingemissioncontroldevices,conductingregularleakassistanceforpartnerstodeploymethaneabatementtechnologiesdetectionandrepaircampaigns,andreplacingcomponentsandthrough“Youcollect,webuy”schemes.PAGE85IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023SpotlightonAfricaAfricahasreducedflaredvolumesbymorethan50%fromtheirpeakinthemid1990s,butmadelittleprogressontacklingmethaneemissionsMethaneemissionsandnaturalgasflaringinAfrica,1990-202280bcmFlaring60IEA.CCBY4.0.40200Methane2000200520102015202019901995IEA.CCBY4.0.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonflaringdatafromtheWorldBank’sGlobalGasFlaringReductionPartnership(2023),GlobalGasFlaringData.PAGE86Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesPAGE87IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Thesupplyoflow-emissiongasesissettodoubleby2026,butfurthereffortsarerequiredtounleashtheirfullpotentialLow-emissiongases(includingbiomethane,low-emissionemissionhydrogen.BesidesEuropeandNorthAmerica,anumberhydrogen4ande-methane5)canplayacrucialroleindecarbonisingofemerginglow-emissiongasproducersareexpectedtoscaleupgassupplychainsandthebroaderenergysystem.Recognisingtheiroutput,includingBrazil,China,IndiaandOman.theirgrowingimportance,theInternationalEnergyAgencyhasdevelopedaLow-emissionGasesWorkProgrammetotrackBiomethaneproductionisexpectedtoexpandbyover65%(orcloselymarketdevelopmentsinthissphereandfacilitatedialogue4.5bcm)between2022and2026,andtoaccountforalmost55%ofbetweenemergingproducersandconsumers.Thissectionprovidesthetotalincreaseinlow-emissiongasesduringthisperiod.Europeamedium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongases,withaparticularandNorthAmericaaresettoremainthekeydriversofthisgrowth,focusonemergingproducers.scalinguptheirbiomethaneoutputbyclose60%(or3.6bcm)overtheperiod.Brazilisexpectedtoemergeasoneofthefastest-Thedeploymentoflow-emissiongasesisexpectedtogrowingbiomethaneproducersoverthemediumterm,astheaccelerateoverthemediumterm.Thecurrentforecastprojectsacountryisforecasttoquadrupleitsrenewablenaturalgasoutputbydoublingofthesupplyoflow-emissiongasesby2026,translating2026.Low-emissionhydrogenisprojectedtogrowatanaverageintoanincreaseofover8bcminabsoluteterms.Europeandrateofalmost25%peryearbetween2022and2026,translatingNorthAmericaaresettodrivethisexpansionandtocontributeoverintoanincremental3.9bcmeqofsupplyby2026.Similarlyto70%oftheoverallgrowth.Thedevelopmentoflow-emissiongasesbiomethane,EuropeandNorthAmericaaresettodrivethisgrowth,inthesemarketsbenefitsfromawiderangeofpolicies,increasinglyaccountingforcloseto60%ofthetotalincrease.Incontrast,e-sophisticatedsubsidyschemesandwell-developed,interconnectedmethanestrugglestotakeoffovertheforecastperiod,requiringagasnetworks.Nevertheless,furthereffortswillberequiredtoconcentratedeffortbetweenemergingproducersandconsumerstoreachtheambitioustargetssetbothforbiomethaneandlow-establishviablesupplychainsandeffectivesupportmechanisms.4Low-emissionhydrogenincludeshydrogenproducedviaelectrolysiswheretheelectricityisgeneratedfromae.g.fromCO2,arenotfromfossilfuelsorprocessemissions.Beyondthisdefinition,acommercialpropositionforcarbon-neutrale-methanecouldconsidertheuseofCO2capturedatindustrialorpowerplantsandoffsetlow-emissionsource(renewablesornuclear),biomassorfossilfuelswithCCUS.throughcarboncredits(similartothecommercialoffersofcarbon-neutralLNG).5E-methanereferstosyntheticmethaneproducedfromelectrolytichydrogen.Thedefinitionoflow-emissionsyntheticmethaneusedbytheIEAforanalyticalpurposesinitsreportsconsidersthatanycarboninputs,PAGE88IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Biomethaneisexpectedtodominatelow-emissiongassupplyoverthemediumtermEstimatedlow-emissiongassupplyin2022andexpectedincreaseinproductionto202616bcm14IEA.CCBY4.0.121086420BiomethaneLow-emissionE-methane20262022hydrogenIEA.CCBY4.0.BiomethaneLow-emissionhydrogenE-methanePAGE89Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Inthefastlane:Biomethaneissetforstronggrowthoverthemediumterm…Globalbiomethane(orrenewablenaturalgas)productionmorethataround80%ofbiomethaneplantshavegridinjectionthandoubledbetween2018and2022,largelydrivenbyEuropecapability,withcloseto60%ofthemconnectedtoagasandNorthAmerica.Latestestimatesindicatethatglobaldistributiongrid.Intermsoffeedstocksupply,thelandscapeisbiomethaneoutputgrewby17%(or1bcm)in2022toreachcloseincreasinglydominatedbyagriculturalresidues,accountingforoverto7bcm.EuropeandNorthAmericaaccountedforaround90%of35%ofthefeedstockmix,followedbyenergycrops(30%)andthisgrowth.Biomethaneproductionisexpectedtoexpandbyorganicwaste(24%).BiomethaneproductioninGermany–over65%(or4.5bcm)between2022and2026,primarilysupportedEurope’slargestbiomethaneproducer–remainedbroadlyflatatbyprojectsundertakeninEurope,NorthAmericaandBrazil.justover1bcmin2022,whileDenmarkandFrancetogethercontributedover70%oftheincrementalbiomethanesupplyamidTheUnitedStatesretaineditspositionastheworld’slargesteffectivepolicysupport.Growthhasbeenparticularlystronginbiomethaneproducer.LatestdataindicatethatbiomethaneoutputFrance,wherebiomethaneoutputincreasedbymorethan60%grewbyaround20%(or0.35bcm)toreachalmost2bcmin2022.comparedwith2021toreach0.7bcm.Inthefirsthalfof2023,Thisstronggrowthislargelysupportedbythetransportsector,France’sbiomethaneoutputrosebyover30%,puttingitontracktowheretheuseofbiomethanemorethandoubledduring2018-2022.becomeEurope’ssecond-largestproducerthisyear.InDenmark,In2022renewablenaturalgasmetalmost70%ofallon-roadfuelbiomethaneoutputrosebyanestimated15%in2022toalmostusedinnaturalgasvehicles.Inturn,thetransportsectoraccounts0.7bcm.Initialdataindicatethatbiomethaneproductionrosebyfornearly90%oftotalbiomethaneuseintheUnitedStates.20%y-o-yinQ1-Q32023.Assuch,biomethanemetover40%ofFeedstocksupplyremainslargelydominatedbymunicipalsolidDenmark’snaturalgasdemandduringthisperiod.Europe’swaste,accountingfor72%ofthefeedstockmix,followedbybiomethaneproductionisprojectedtoincreaseatanaveragerateagriculturalandfoodwaste(23%)andwastewater(5%).Renewableofover10%peryearovertheforecastperiodandreach6bcmbynaturalgasinNorthAmericaissettobenefitfromtheInflation2026,albeitinsufficienttoputtheEuropeanUnionontracktoreachReductionActandexpandby70%toreachalmost4bcmby2026.itstargetof35bcm/yrbiomethaneoutputby2030.OutsideEuropeandNorthAmerica,biomethaneproductiongrowthisexpectedtoInEurope,biomethaneoutputgrewbyanestimated15%(orbesupportedbyprojectdevelopmentsinBrazil,ChinaandIndia.0.5bcm)toreachalmost4bcmin2022.LatestsurveysindicatePAGE90IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023…primarilysupportedbyprojectdevelopmentsinEuropeandNorthAmericaBiomethaneproductionbyregion,2010-202612Forecastbcm10IEA.CCBY4.0.8642020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026EuropeNorthAmericaOtherregionsIEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonArgonneNationalLaboratory(2022),RenewableNaturalGasDatabase;BiogasPartner(2023),BiogaspartnerEinspeiseatlasDeutschland;Cedigaz(2023),GlobalBiomethaneDatabase;Energinet(2023),EnergiDataService;ODRE(2023),ProductionQuotidienneConsolidéedeBiométhanesurleréseaudetransportetdedistributionparOpérateur.PAGE91Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Awakeninggreengiant:BiomethanedevelopmentsinBrazilBrazilisexpectedtoemergeasakeybiomethaneproducerSpecialIncentiveSchemeforInfrastructureDevelopment,underovertheforecastperiod.Thecountry’srenewablenaturalgaswhichnewprojectsbenefitfromtaxexemptionsfortheacquisitionoutputisprojectedtoquadruplebetween2022and2026,ofmachinery,constructionmaterialsandequipment.accountingforover10%ofincrementalglobalbiomethanesupply.Accordingtothelatestindustrydata,therearecurrentlyConsideringBrazil'svastagriculturalsector,thecountryhastenbiomethaneplantsinBrazilwithatotalproductioncapacityofsignificantbiogasandbiomethaneproductionpotential.Brazil’s0.16bcm/yr.AsofJuly2023,onlysixofthemhavebeenauthorisedBiogasAssociation(ABiogás)estimatesthecountry’sbiogastoproduceandinjectbiomethaneintothecountry’sgasnetwork.potentialatover43bcm/yr.Assumingthatbiogascontains60%Elevenbiomethaneplants(withatotalcapacityof0.12bcm/yr)aremethaneonaverage,thecountry’sbiomethanepotentialisintheprocessofseekingregulatoryapprovalfromtheNationalestimatedataround25bcm/yr.Brazil’sbiogasoutputhasgrownAgencyofPetroleum,NaturalGasandBiofuels(ANP).Accordingtostronglyinrecentyearsandmorethandoubledbetween2017andasurveycarriedoutbyABiogásandtheBrazilianAssociationof2021.In2021Brazilhad755biogasplantsinoperationwithanPipelineGasDistributors(Abegás),therearecurrentlyoveralloutputof2.3bcm.Over70%ofthebiogasproducedwas27biomethaneprojectsinBrazilatvariousstagesofdevelopment.usedforpowergenerationandaround20%wasupgradedintoRenewablenaturalgasoutputisexpectedtomorethanbiomethane.Accordingtolatestdata,Brazil’sbiogasoutputgrewbyquadruplefromcurrentlevels,risingto0.8bcm/yrby2027andmorethan20%in2022toreach2.8bcm.makingBrazilthefifth-largestbiomethaneproducerintheworld.Landfillsareforeseentoaccountfornearly60%ofthefeedstockIncontrastwithbiogas,biomethaneisstillinitsinfancyinsupplymix,followedbythesugar-energysector(32%)andBrazil.InMarch2022BrazillaunchedtheFederalStrategytoagriculturalwaste(8%).Tofosterproduction,severalcertificationIncentivisetheSustainableUseofBiogasandBiomethane.BesidesschemesarebeingdevelopedinBrazil.In2022thecountry'sfirstprovidingadefinitionofbiogasandbiomethane,thedecreeGas-RECs–renewableenergycertificatesforbiogas–wereissuedincludesguidelinesonthedevelopmentofbiomethanesupplybyanagriculturalconglomerateproducingbiogas.ABiogásischains,thepromotionofbiomethaneconsumptionandmeasurestocurrentlydevelopingitsownbiomethanecertificationprogramme.reducemethaneemissions.BiomethanewasalsoincludedinthePAGE92IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Brazil’sbiomethaneoutputisexpectedtomorethanquadrupleby2027Biomethaneproductionprospectsbyfeedstocksupply,Brazil,2023-20270.8bcm0.6IEA.CCBY4.0.0.40.20.0Sugar-energysectorAgriculturalwasteTotalLandfillsIEA.CCBY4.0.LandfillsSugar-energysectorAgriculturalwasteSource:IEAanalysisbasedonEPBR(2022),Brasiltem27novasplantasdebiometanoprevistasparaospróximosanos.PAGE93Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023BiomethanedevelopmentsinIndia:DrivenbythetransportsectorBiomethaneproductioninIndiarosebyover20%y-o-yduringinvestorsandentrepreneurstoprocureCBG.Inaddition,thethe2022/23financialyeartoreachcloseto20mcm.SupportedbygovernmenthasrecentlyintroducedtheGOBAR-DHANschemetogovernmentpolicies,biomethaneoutputisexpectedtoincreasepromotetheconversionofbiowastetobiogas/biomethaneinruralmorethantenfoldovertheforecastperiod,withdemandareas.AsofAugust2023,atotalof56plantswitharatedcapacityconcentratedinthetransportandindustrialsectors.of160mcm/yrhavebeencommissioned.Agriculturalwasteaccountsfor34%ofthefeedstocksupplymix,followedbyIndia’sbiomethanesectorhasstrongpotentialduetoapressmud(27%),MSW(17%)andanimalwastes(16%).combinationoflocalresourceavailabilityandsupportivegovernmentpolicies.Historically,captivefeedstocksupply(suchCurrentlyover110CBG/biomethaneplantsareunderaspressmudandbagasseinthesugarindustry,distilleryby-constructionandmorethan200plantsareintheearlyphasesofproducts,andsewagetreatmentplants)havebeenthepreferreddevelopment.Basedonplantscurrentlyunderconstruction,India’soptionforbiomethaneproduction.However,technologicalbiomethaneoutputcouldincreasemorethantenfoldandreachadvancementsandimprovementsinfeedstocksupplychaincloseto300mcm/yrby2026.Agriculturalwaste,MSWandnapiermanagementareexpectedtoenablelargerbiomethaneprojectsgrassfeedstocksareexpectedtosupportthisstrongexpansion.Inthatrelyonagriculturalwaste,municipalsolidwaste(MSW)andthelongerterm,Indiaaimstoincreasetheshareofnapiergrass.CBG/biomethaneinitsprioritysegmentsofthecitygasdistributionsector(CNGfortransportandpipednaturalgasfordomesticuse)ThegovernmentofIndiaandtheMinistryofPetroleumandNaturalto10%.ThiswouldrequireannualCBG/biomethaneoutputtoGasintroducedanumberofpoliciestoacceleratetheincreasetoover1.5bcm.DespiteIndia’sstrongpotential,severaldeploymentofbiomethaneandcompressedbiogas(CBG).ThiskeychallengesremainaheadofthedevelopmentofincludestheSATAT(SustainableAlternativeTowardsAffordablebiomethane/CBG.Thisincludesthelackofstable,long-termpricesTransportation)schemelaunchedinOctober2018,whichforfeedstocksupply,andthelimitedscopeofsupportschemes.Inenvisagedproductionof15MtofCBGfrom5000plantsbythiscontext,projectfinancingremainsdifficultduetotherelativelyfinancialyear2024.Underthescheme,oilandgasmarketingthinprofitmarginsandtherisksrelatedtomarketingbiomethane.companieshavebeeninvitingexpressionsofinterestfrompotentialPAGE94IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023BiomethaneproductioninIndiaisexpectedtoexpandmorethantenfoldby2026Biomethaneproduction,India,FY2022/23-FY2025/26Forecast300mcm/yr250IEA.CCBY4.0.200150100500FY2023/24FY2024/25FY2025/26FY2022/23IEA.CCBY4.0.TheFinancialYearinIndiastartson1Aprilandendson31March.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondataprovidedbytheIndianGasExchange.PAGE95Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Low-emissionhydrogenproductionisexpectedtomorethantripleoverthemediumtermLow-emissionhydrogenproductionissettotripleoverthethan20%ofthemareinmaturephasesofdevelopment(eithermediumterm,primarilysupportedbyprojectdevelopmentsinoperational,underconstructionorhavingreachedFID).China,EuropeandNorthAmerica.Despitethisrapidgrowth,theConsideringprojectsinmaturephasesofdevelopment,low-currentpaceofprojectdevelopmentmaybeinsufficienttoreachtheemissionhydrogenoutputmorethantriplesandreaches2Mt/yrambitioustargetssetincertainregions.(or6bcmeq)by2026.Fromaregionalperspective,productiongrowthwillbelargelysupportedbyNorthAmerica,withashareofLow-emissionhydrogenproductionremainedbroadlyflatinincrementalsupplyofmorethan40%overtheforecastperiod,2022,withoutputestimatedat0.7Mtandequatingtojust0.7%offollowedbyChina(20%)andEurope(17%).Waterelectrolysisistotalhydrogenoutput.Themajorityoflow-emissionhydrogenwasexpectedtocontribute50%ofincrementallow-emissionhydrogenproducedfromfossilfuelswithCCUS.Around15large-scalesupplyby2026.ElectrolysercapacityisprojectedtoreacharoundhydrogenfacilitiesaroundtheworldareequippedwithCCUS,14GWby2026,withChinaaloneaccountingfor40%oftotalcapturingaround11MtCO2peryear.NaturalgaswithCCUSinstalledcapacity,followedbyEurope(25%),theMiddleEast(20%)accountedforjustoverhalfofgloballow-emissionhydrogenoutput.andNorthAmerica(lessthan10%).UnderthecurrentstateofLow-emissionhydrogenproductionviawaterelectrolysisgrewbyprojectdevelopment,electrolytichydrogenproductioninthearound35%in2022,althoughitcontinuedtobesmall,withoutputEuropeanUnionwouldreach0.25Mtby2026,leavingasignificantestimatedatlessthan100000tH2.Fromaregionalperspective,gaptoreachthe10Mt/yrtargetby2030.Low-emissionhydrogenlow-emissionhydrogenproductionremainsdominatedbyproducedfromfossilfuelswithCCUSisexpectedtogrowataNorthAmerica,accountingforaroundtwo-thirdsofglobaloutput.slowerpace,althoughisprojectedtoaccountfor50%ofincrementalsupplyintheforecastperiod.Hence,theshareoflow-AccordingtotheIEAHydrogenProjectsDatabase,projectsatemissionhydrogenproducedfromfossilfuelswithCCUSissettovariousstagesofdevelopmentcouldincreasegloballow-emissiondeclinefromtoday’s90%tojust50%by2026.CCUS-basedhydrogenproductionupto12Mt(or36bcmeq)by2026.Projectshydrogenprojectsareexpectedtobealmostentirelyconcentratedrelyingonwaterelectrolysiswouldaccountforaround75%ofthisinNorthAmerica,benefitingfromtheregion’sabundantandpotentialgrowth.However,themajorityoftheseprojectsareeitherrelativelycheapnaturalgassupply.undertakingfeasibilitystudiesorattheconceptphase,andfewerPAGE96IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Themajorityoflow-emissionhydrogenprojectsremainintheearlystagesofdevelopmentPotentialoutputoflow-emissionhydrogenin2026Expectedoutputoflow-emissionhydrogenbycurrentprojectstatusinkeymarketsin20262.0Mt/yr1.61.2~12Mt/yr0.80.40.0Operating&FIDFeasibilityEarlystageIEA.CCBY4.0.“Operating&FID”includesprojectsthatareoperatingandthathavereachedatleastFID,thereforeprojectsunderconstructionarealsoincluded;“Feasibility”includesprojectsundergoingafeasibilitystudy;“Earlystage”includesprojectsatveryearlystages,suchasthoseinwhichonlyaco-operationagreementamongstakeholdershasbeenannouncedSource:IEAHydrogenProjectsDatabase(2023).PAGE97IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Oman:TransitioningfromanoilandgasproducertoahydrogenexporterOmanisaproducereconomywithaclearlong-termvisionand47years,whichincludes7yearsfordevelopmentandconstructionstrongnetzeroambitions.Today,oilandgasrepresentaroundand40yearsofoperation.Thefirstroundofauctionsforthe60%ofOman’sexportincome,anddomesticnaturalgasaccountsallocationoflandblocksforhydrogenprojectswascompletedinforover95%ofthecountry’selectricitygeneration.In2022OmanJune2023andresultedinatotaloffiveprojectsawardedgrantsannouncedatargettobecomenetzeroby2050anditaimstoworthacombinedUSD30billion.Thesecondroundofauctionsissignificantlyrampupdomesticproductionofhydrogenfromcurrentlyactivewithplanstoawarduptothreelandblocksintherenewableelectricity.Beyondfossilfuels,OmanisabundantlyDhofarregionbytheendofQ12024.endowedwithsignificantrenewableresources.Buildingonitspotentialinsolarandwind,thecountryaimstoproduceatleastWhileinternationaldemanddevelops,Omancanalreadydevelopa1Mtofrenewablehydrogenayearby2030,upto3.75Mtby2040domesticmarketforrenewablehydrogentostrengthenitsandupto8.5Mtby2050.Thesetargetswouldmakehydrogenpositionandmitigateuncertainties.DomesticdemandcouldstartexportstwiceaslargeasthesizeofOman’scurrentLNGexportsinwiththerefiningsector,whichusesaround0.35Mtoffossilenergy-equivalentterms.hydrogenannuallythatcouldbereplacedbyrenewablehydrogenataproductioncostofUSD1.6/kgby2030.ThiswouldreduceOmanhasalreadytakenstepstolaythegroundworkforOman’semissionsbymorethan3MtCO2/yr,aswellassaveachievingits2030targets,demonstratingitscommitmentandaround1.5bcmofnaturalgasby2030.Totalnaturalgassavingsprovidingthecertaintythatinvestmentandindustrystakeholderscouldincreasetoatotalof3bcmifOmansuccessfullymeetsitsneedtosupportthedevelopmentofthesector.In2022the2030targetofreplacing20%ofnaturalgasinpowergenerationgovernmentestablishedanindependententity,HydrogenOmanwithrenewables.Thesesavingswouldbeequivalenttoroughly(HYDROM),tooverseeandleaditsnationalhydrogenstrategyand20%ofthecountry’s2021LNGexports.DependingonLNGmanagetheprojectauctionprocess.Thegeographicalareademandandsupplytrendsinthecomingyears,Omanmayearmarkedforthehydrogenprojectstomeetthe2030targetconsiderexpandingitsLNGinfrastructuretoincreaseexportstretchesover1500km2andisintendedtosupplyatotalof15GWvolumes.ofelectrolysercapacity.TheagreementsareforaperiodofPAGE98IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Oman’slong-termH2targetsexceedthesizeofitscurrentLNGexportsOman’sLNGexportsvsrenewablehydrogenexportprojectpipelineandproductiontargetsIEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE99IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Namibia:Afrontrunnerinunleashingsub-SaharanAfrica’slow-emissionhydrogenpotentialNamibiaaimstostartexportinglow-emissionhydrogenfieldofenergy,inparticulargreenhydrogen.Asimilaragreementderivatives(primarilyammonia)by2026.EnhancedinternationalduringthesameCOPwassignedwithBelgium.InMarch2022co-operationwithfutureimportingmarketswillbecriticaltounleashNamibiaandGermanysignedajointdeclarationofintenttothehydrogenpotentialofsub-SaharanAfricaoverthemediumterm.co-operateontheproduction,applicationandtransportofgreenhydrogenandsyntheticfuels.AtCOP27inNovember2022Namibia’sworld-classwindandsolarpowerpotentialcouldNamibiaandtheEuropeanUnionsignedamemorandumoftranslateintothecost-competivesupplyoflow-emissionhydrogenunderstanding(MoU)todevelopasecureandsustainablesupplyofanditsderivatives.Accordingtothecountry’sHydrogenStrategy,rawandrefinedmaterialsandrenewablehydrogen.InJune2023thelevelisedcostofelectrolytichydrogenproducedinNamibiaDutchandNamibiancompaniessignedanMoUtodevelopcoulddeclinetojustUSD1.5-1.6/kgby2030at95%hydrogenhydrogen-relatedinfrastructuretosupporttradebetweenNamibiapurity,asrequiredfortheproductionofhydrogenderivativessuchandtheNetherlands.InAugust2023Japan’sItochusignedanasammonia.ThiswouldmakeNamibia’shydrogencompetitiveonagreementwithNamibiatoco-operateonthedevelopmentoflow-aninternationalscale..NamibiapublisheditsGreenHydrogenemissionammoniavaluechains.andDerivativesStrategyinNovember2022.ThecountryexpectstostarttheproductionofelectrolytichydrogenanditsderivativesinNamibia’sHyphenHydrogenEnergyprojecthasatargettobegin2026andgraduallyrampupoutputto1-2Mt/yrby2030,5-7Mt/yrhydrogenproductionbytheendof2026andrampupoutputtoby2040and10-15Mt/yrby2050.Namibiaplanstodevelopthree0.3Mt/yrby2030.Ammoniaproductionwouldreach2Mt/yr.Thehydrogenvalleys:theSouthernregionisexpectedtoproduceprojecthasnotreachedFIDyet,althoughthereisasignedMoUfor5Mt/yrofhydrogenequivalentby2050,theCentralregionaroundthepotentialofftakeof1Mt/yrofammonia.InDecember2021an3Mt/yrandtheNorthernregion5Mt/yr.MoUwassignedbetweentheHyphenHydrogenEnergyProjectandGermany’sRWESupplyandTrading(0.3Mt/yr),whileinNamibiahasactivelyengagedinthedevelopmentofstrategicFebruary2023,Korea’sApprotiumandanundisclosedchemicalpartnershipswithfutureimportingmarketstofacilitatethecompanysignedanMoUfortheofftakeof0.75Mt/yr.Suchlong-technologytransferandinvestmentflowsrequiredtoscaleupitstermofftakeagreementswillbenecessarytoderiskinvestmenthydrogeneconomy.AtCOP26inNovember2021NamibiaandtheandenableFID.NetherlandsagreedtosignaletterofintentoncollaborationinthePAGE100IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023NamibiaisbuildingupinternationalpartnershipstodevelopitshydrogeneconomyTimelineofkeyagreementsandstrategydocumentsrelatedtohydrogendevelopmentsinNamibiaIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:JDI=jointdeclarationofintent;LoI=letterofintent;MoU=memorandumofunderstanding.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonvariousnewsreports.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023E-methane:Thenextgenerationoflow-emissiongasesE-methaneisproducedbycombininglow-emissionhydrogenandasupplychainswithLNGexportingcountries.Whilenobindingcarbonsource.AsrecognisedbytheG7Climate,Energyandagreementshavebeenreachedyet,theserecentprojectproposalsEnvironmentMinisters’Communiqué,e-methanecouldplayacouldpotentiallyenable0.45Mt/yr(or0.6bcm/yr)ofe-methanesignificantroleindecarbonisingexistinggasnetworkswithoutimportsintoJapanby2030.AcomprehensiveoverviewofJapan’stheneedforretrofitting.Incontrastwithbiomethaneandlow-domesticandinternationale-methaneprojectsisprovidedintheemissionhydrogen,e-methaneisnotexpectedtoexpandIEA’sQuarterlyGasReport–Q22023.JapanGasAssociationsignificantlyovertheforecastperiodconsideringthecomplexityof(JGA)issettoestablishacleangascertificationschemefore-theunderlyingvaluechainsandthehighproductioncosts.methaneandbiogasproducersduringthe2024/25fiscalyear.Nevertheless,variouscompaniesinJapanandEuropeareinvestigatingprojectdevelopmentoptions.FurthertechnologicalInEurope,theEuropeanNetworkofTransmissionSystemdevelopment,coupledwithpolicysupportcouldleadtoatake-offinOperatorsforGas(ENTSOG)expectse-methaneproductiontoe-methaneproductioninthesecondhalfofthedecade.Inaddition,reach0.2bcm/yrby2030andincreasetoarangeof2-4bcm/yrbyproperemissionsaccountingruleswillberequiredtoensurethate-2050.TheFrenchGasAssociationseesastrongerpotentialfore-methanecontributestocarbonneutrality.methaneproductioninFrance:0.3bcm/yrby2030and5.4bcm/yrby2050.BesidesseveralpilotprojectsundertakeninrecentyearsJapanisafirstmoverinthee-methanespace.Thecountry’s(mainlyinFranceandGermany),EuropeancompaniesareStrategicEnergyPlanaimstorampupannuale-methanesupplytoconsideringthedevelopmentofinternationalsupplychainsfore-0.28Mt(or0.38bcm/yr)by2030and25Mt(or34bcm/yr)by2050.methane.TotalEnergiesandTreeEnergySolutionsareconsideringThecountry’sBasicHydrogenStrategy,publishedinJune2023,developingalarge-scalee-methaneproductionunitintherecognisesthepotentialcontributionofe-methanetoenergysupplyUnitedStateswithanoutputintherangeof0.15-0.3bcm/yr.Thesecurityandtheneedtodevelopinternationalpartnershipswithliquefiede-methanecouldbesoldintotheglobalLNGmarket.Theproducingeconomies.JapaneseutilitiesandtradinghouseshaveprojectisexpectedtobenefitfromthetaxcreditsundertheInflationstartedjointlyexploringthefeasibilityofdevelopinge-methaneReductionAct,withthecompaniesaimingtotakeFIDin2024.PAGE102IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023Medium-termoutlookforlow-emissiongasesIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023JapaneseandEuropeancompaniesaretargetinginternationale-methanesupplychainsKeyplannede-methaneimportprojectsledbyEuropeanandJapanesecompaniesbcm/yr0.9TotalEnergiesandTreeEnergySolutions0.6OsakaGasandMarubeni0.3OsakaGas,OsakaGasandTallgrassSantosEnergyandGreenTokyoGas,PlainsOsakaGas,TohoGasand0.0MitsubishiFreeportLNGCorporationCameronLNGUndisclosedLNGplantPeruLNGUndisclosedLNGplantinAustraliaintheUnitedStatesIEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonvariousnewsreportsandcompanyannouncements.Medium-TermGasReport2023AnnexIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023IEA.CCBY4.0.AnnexPAGE104Medium-TermGasReport2023Worldnaturalgasconsumptionbyregionandkeycountry(bcm)AnnexIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-20232020202120222023202420252026Summarytables(1/2)161169164170178184191834891877904939990Africa3253673643904134491062AsiaPacific142153150144147150496585649622625633647153ofwhichChina461516487490495506660CentralandSouthAmerica576609524489496495517Eurasia546562580590602621493642ofwhichRussia107910911144114911391128Europe8688749199229129011124MiddleEast899NorthAmerica3924412440614071413542144325ofwhichUnitedStatesWorldPAGE105IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023AnnexIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023Worldnaturalgasproductionbyregionandkeycountry(bcm)Summarytables(2/2)2020202120222023202420252026Africa239260245251259265270AsiaPacific622646655668677680690189205216227234242250ofwhichChina150148152145149152153CentralandSouthAmerica866961865806828846867Eurasia692762672620641659677230222230218221220216ofwhichRussia670692715729745765815EuropeMiddleEast1145118312321264126712901314NorthAmerica9549841021104610501070109140944081414642184325ofwhichUnitedStates39224112WorldPAGE106IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023AnnexIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023MiddleEast–Bahrain,theIslamicRepublicofIran,Iraq,Israel,8Jordan,RegionalandcountrygroupingsKuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,SaudiArabia,theSyrianArabRepublic,theUnitedArabEmiratesandYemen.Africa–Algeria,Angola,Benin,Botswana,Cameroon,Congo,DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,Côted’Ivoire,Egypt,Eritrea,Ethiopia,NorthAfrica–Algeria,Egypt,Libya,MoroccoandTunisia.Gabon,Ghana,Kenya,Libya,Morocco,Mozambique,Namibia,Nigeria,Senegal,SouthAfrica,Sudan,UnitedRepublicofNorthAmerica–Canada,MexicoandtheUnitedStates.Tanzania,Togo,Tunisia,Zambia,Zimbabweandothercountriesandterritories.11Individualdataarenotavailableandareestimatedinaggregatefor:BurkinaFaso,Burundi,CapeVerde,theCentralAfricanRepublic,Chad,Comoros,Djibouti,EquatorialGuinea,Gambia,Guinea,AsiaPacific–Australia,Bangladesh,BruneiDarussalam,Cambodia,Guinea-Bissau,Lesotho,Liberia,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Mauritius,Niger,Reunion,ChineseTaipei,India,Indonesia,Japan,Korea,theDemocraticRwanda,SaoTomeandPrincipe,Seychelles,SierraLeone,Somalia,SwazilandandUganda.People’sRepublicofKorea,Malaysia,Mongolia,Myanmar,2IncludingHongKong.Nepal,NewZealand,Pakistan,thePeople’sRepublicofChina,23Individualdataarenotavailableandareestimatedinaggregatefor:Afghanistan,Bhutan,CookthePhilippines,Singapore,SriLanka,Thailand,VietNamandIslands,Fiji,FrenchPolynesia,Kiribati,theLaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic,Macau(China),othercountriesandterritories.3Maldives,NewCaledonia,Palau,PapuaNewGuinea,Samoa,SolomonIslands,Timor-Leste,TongaandVanuatu.CentralandSouthAmerica–Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,4Individualdataarenotavailableandareestimatedinaggregatefor:AntiguaandBarbuda,Aruba,CostaRica,Cuba,theDominicanRepublic,Ecuador,ElBahamas,Barbados,Belize,Bermuda,BritishVirginIslands,CaymanIslands,Dominica,FalklandSalvador,Guatemala,Haiti,Honduras,Jamaica,NetherlandsIslands(Malvinas),FrenchGuyana,Grenada,Guadeloupe,Guyana,Martinique,Montserrat,StAntilles,Nicaragua,Panama,Paraguay,Peru,TrinidadandKittsandNevis,StLucia,StVincentandtheGrenadines,SurinameandTurksandCaicosIslands.Tobago,Uruguay,Venezuelaandothercountriesandterritories.45NotebytheRepublicofTürkiye.Theinformationinthisdocumentwithreferenceto“Cyprus”relatestothesouthernpartoftheEurasia–Armenia,Azerbaijan,Georgia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,theIsland.ThereisnosingleauthorityrepresentingbothTurkishandGreekCypriotpeopleontheRussianFederation,Tajikistan,TurkmenistanandUzbekistan.Island.TheRepublicofTürkiyerecognisestheTurkishRepublicofNorthernCyprus(TRNC).UntilalastingandequitablesolutionisfoundwithinthecontextoftheUnitedNations,TheRepublicofEurope–Albania,Austria,Belarus,Belgium,BosniaandHerzegovina,Türkiyeshallpreserveitspositionconcerningthe“Cyprusissue”.Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,5,6theCzechRepublic,Denmark,6.NotebyalltheEuropeanUnionMemberStatesoftheOECDandtheEuropeanUnionEstonia,Finland,theFormerYugoslavRepublicofNorthTheRepublicofCyprusisrecognisedbyallmembersoftheUnitedNationswiththeexceptionofMacedonia,France,Germany,Gibraltar,Greece,Hungary,Türkiye.TheinformationinthisdocumentrelatestotheareaundertheeffectivecontroloftheIceland,Ireland,Italy,Kosovo,7Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,GovernmentoftheRepublicofCyprus.Malta,theRepublicofMoldova,Montenegro,theNetherlands,7Thedesignationiswithoutprejudicetopositionsonstatus,andisinlinewiththeUnitedNationsNorway,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Serbia,theSlovakSecurityCouncilResolution1244/99andtheAdvisoryOpinionoftheInternationalCourtofJusticeRepublic,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,RepublicofonKosovo’sdeclarationofIndependence.Türkiye,UkraineandtheUnitedKingdom.8ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityoftherelevantIsraeliEuropeanUnion–Austria,Belgium,Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,5,6theCzechauthorities.TheuseofsuchdatabytheOECDand/ortheIEAiswithoutprejudicetothestatusofRepublic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,theGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraelisettlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofHungary,Ireland,Italy,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,theinternationallaw.Netherlands,Poland,Portugal,Romania,theSlovakRepublic,Slovenia,SpainandSweden.PAGE107IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023AnnexIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023AbbreviationsandacronymsANPNationalPetroleumAgency(Brazil)HHHenryHubHoAHeadofAgreementBMCColombianMercantileExchange(Colombia)IEAInternationalEnergyAgencyICEIntercontinentalExchangeCBGcompressedbiogasICISIndependentChemicalInformationServicesIEAInternationalEnergyAgencyCCUSCarbonCapture,UtilisationandStorageIMOInternationalMaritimeOrganizationJGAJapanGasAssociationCIICarbonIntensityIndicatorJKMJapanKoreaMarkerJODIJointOilDataInitiativeCMEChicagoMercantileExchange(UnitedStates)JPYJapaneseyenLBGliquefiedbiomethaneCNENationalEnergyCommission(Chile)LEGWPLow-EmissionGasesWorkProgrammeLNGliquefiednaturalgasCNPCChinaNationalPetroleumCoporationMETIMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry(Japan)MoUMemorandumofUnderstandingCQPGXChongqingPetroleumExchange(thePeople’sRepublicofMMEMinistryofMinesandEnergy(Brazil)China)MSWmunicipalsolidwasteNBPNationalBalancingPoint(UnitedKingdom)EEXIEnergyEfficiencyeXistingshipIndexNDRCNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission(thePeople’sRepublicofChina)EIAEnergyInformationAdministration(UnitedStates)NPTNadymPurTaz(Russia)OECDOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentENARGASNationalGasRegulatoryEntity(Argentina)ONSNationalElectricSystemOperator(Brazil)OSINERGEnergyRegulatoryCommission(Peru)ENTSOGEuropeanNetworkofTransmissionSystemOperatorsforGasPMIManufacturingPurchasingManagers’IndexEPIASEnergyMarketsOperationsInc.(RepublicofTürkiye)EPPOEnergyPolicyandPlanningOffice(Thailand)EUEuropeanUnionEUREuroFIDfinalinvestmentdecisionFLNGfloatingLNGFSRUfloatingstorageandregasificationunitFYfiscalyearGDPgrossdomesticproductGHGsgreenhousegasesGIEGasInfrastructureEuropeGXGreenTransformationprogramme(Japan)PAGE108IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023AnnexIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023PNGRBPetroleumandNaturalGasRegulatoryBoard(India)MBtumillionBritishthermalunitsPPACPetroleumPlanningandAnalysisCell(India)MtmilliontonnesRECrenewableenergycertificateMt/yrmilliontonnesperyearRFOResidualFuelOilm3/hrcubicmetresperhourSBLStrategicBufferLNGm3/yrcubicmetresperyearSMRsteammethanereformingNm3normalcubicmetreSPASalesandPurchaseAgreementTWhterawatthourTFFSTaskForceonGasandCleanFuelsMarketMonitoringandt/yrtonnesperyearSupplyandSecurityTTFTitleTransferFacility(theNetherlands)UGSundergroundstorageUSDUnitedStatesdollary-o-yyear-on-yearUnitsofmeasurebcfbillioncubicfeetbcf/dbillioncubicfeetperdaybcmbillioncubicmetresbcmeqbillioncubicmetreequivalentbillioncubicmetresperyearbcm/yrgigajouleGJgigawattGWkilowatthourkWhPAGE109IEA.CCBY4.0.Medium-TermGasReport2023AnnexIncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q4-2023RaviKumarSingh(IndianGasExchange)providedinvaluableAcknowledgements,contributorsandcreditsinsightsanddataonbiogas/biomethanedevelopmentsinIndia.ThispublicationhasbeenpreparedbytheGas,CoalandPowerTimelyandcomprehensivedatafromtheEnergyDataCentrewereMarketsDivision(GCP)oftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).fundamentaltothereport.Theanalysiswasledandco-ordinatedbyGergelyMolnár.LouisChambeau,CaroleEtienne,GergelyMolnár,TakeshiFurukawaandTheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice(CDO)providedFrederickRitterarethemainauthors.productionandlaunchsupport.ParticularthanksgotoJethroMullenandhisteam:PoeliBojorquez,AstridDumond,GraceKeisukeSadamori,DirectoroftheIEAEnergyMarketsandSecurityGordon,JuliaHorowitz,OliverJoy,IsabelleNonain-Semelin,Oscar(EMS)DirectorateandDennisHesseling,HeadofGas,CoalandPadula,CharnerRamsey,ClaraValloisandThereseWalsh.PowerMarketsDivision,providedexpertguidanceandadvice.TheReportbenefittedfromthereviewofseniormanagement,includingJustinFrench-Brookseditedthereport.TimGould,ChiefEnergyEconomist.ThereportwasmadepossiblebyassistancefromTokyoGas.ThedevelopmentofthisreportbenefittedfromcontributionsprovidedbythefollowingIEAcolleagues:ElisaAsmelash(hydrogenTheindividualsandorganisationsthatcontributedtothisreportaredevelopmentsinOman),TomásdeOliveiraBredariol(methanenotresponsibleforanyopinionorjudgementitcontains.AnyerroremissionsAfrica).JoseMiguelBermudezMenendez(HAF),oromissionisthesoleresponsibilityoftheIEA.FrancescoPavan(HAF)andAmaliaPizarro(HAF)providedguidanceonhydrogen.Forquestionsandcomments,pleasecontactGCP(gcp@iea.org)orGergelyMolnár(Gergely.Molnar@iea.org).ErenCam(GCP)andCarlosFernandezAlvarez(GCP)providedsupportonpowermodelling.AlexanderBressers(OIM)andJacobMessing(OIM)providedvaluablecommentsonoilmarketdynamics.HiroyasuSakaguchiprovidedsupport.PAGE110IEA.CCBY4.0.InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)TypesetinFrancebytheIEA–October2023AnnexCoverdesign:IEAThisworkreflectstheviewsoftheIEASecretariatbutdoesnotPhotocredits:©ShutterstocknecessarilyreflectthoseoftheIEA’sindividualmembercountriesorofanyparticularfunderorcollaborator.Theworkdoesnotconstituteprofessionaladviceonanyspecificissueorsituation.TheIEAmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,inrespectofthework’scontents(includingitscompletenessoraccuracy)andshallnotberesponsibleforanyuseof,orrelianceon,thework.SubjecttotheIEA’sNoticeforCC-licencedContent,thisworkislicencedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0InternationalLicence.Thisdocumentandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Unlessotherwiseindicated,allmaterialpresentedinfiguresandtablesisderivedfromIEAdataandanalysis.IEAPublicationsInternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.orgContactinformation:www.iea.org/about/contact

1、当您付费下载文档后，您只拥有了使用权限，并不意味着购买了版权，文档只能用于自身使用，不得用于其他商业用途（如 [转卖]进行直接盈利或[编辑后售卖]进行间接盈利）。
2、本站所有内容均由合作方或网友上传，本站不对文档的完整性、权威性及其观点立场正确性做任何保证或承诺！文档内容仅供研究参考，付费前请自行鉴别。
3、如文档内容存在违规，或者侵犯商业秘密、侵犯著作权等，请点击“违规举报”。

碎片内容

碳中和的最新文档