ElectrifyingtheFuture:AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket2AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023TableofContentsE-MOBILITY:ELECTRIFYINGTHEWAYWEMOVE..........................................................................4BASICBREAKDOWNOFELECTRICVEHICLES...................................................................................................4HOWMUCHCLEANERISE-MOBILITYCOMPAREDTOCONVENTIONALTRANSPORTMODE?.....................................5BARRIERSTOEVS’ADOPTION.....................................................................................................................6BATTERIESANDCHARGERS:IMPORTANTCOMPONENTSOFE-MOBILITY.............................................................8THEMOVETOWARDSMOBILITYASASERVICE(MAAS)..................................................................................8AUTONOMOUSVEHICLES...........................................................................................................................9GLOBALE-MOBILITYMARKET....................................................................................................11BATTERYANDVOLTAGESEGMENTATION....................................................................................................12ASIAISLEADINGTHEE-MOBILITYMARKET..................................................................................................12GLOBALELECTRICBUSMARKET...............................................................................................................14CHINADOMINATESTHEGLOBALELECTRICBUSMARKET...............................................................................15ELECTRICBUSMARKETSEGMENTATION.....................................................................................................16GLOBALELECTRICSCOOTERMARKET.......................................................................................18ASIAPACIFICLEADSTHEGLOBALMARKET,BUTEUROPESHOWSTHESTRONGESTGROWTHPOTENTIAL...............19SEALEDLEADACIDISSTILLTHEMOSTPREFERREDOPTIONFORBATTERIES......................................................20GLOBALBATTERYMARKET.......................................................................................................21THEMARKETFORPRIMARYANDSECONDARYBATTERIES...............................................................................22LITHIUM-IONANDLEAD-ACIDBATTERIESARETHEMOSTPOPULAR..................................................................22ACLOSERLOOKATTHELITHIUM-IONBATTERYMARKET................................................................................23LITHIUM-IONBATTERYUSAGEINE-MOBILITY...............................................................................................24LITHIUM-IONBATTERYSEGMENTATIONS....................................................................................................25KEYPLAYERSINTHEGLOBALBATTERYMARKET..........................................................................................27GLOBALAUTONOMOUSVEHICLEMARKET.................................................................................28AUTONOMOUSVEHICLEMARKETSEGMENTATIONS......................................................................................29Bylevelofautonomousdriving.................................................................................................................29Bytypeofmobility......................................................................................................................................29Bypropulsiontype......................................................................................................................................29USANDCHINARACINGTOTOPPOSITION...................................................................................................31E-MOBILITYEUROPE:ANOVERVIEWOFEUROPE’SLATESTELECTRICVEHICLESDATA..............32EUROPEEVSALES2021.........................................................................................................................33PUBLICCHARGINGSTATIONSAVAILABILITY................................................................................................34WHICHCOUNTRIESINEUROPEHAVETHEMOSTELECTRICCARS?...................................................................35ELECTRICBUSMARKETSHAREINEUROPE..................................................................................................36EUROPE'SCO2EMISSIONSFROMNEWPASSENGERCARS..............................................................................37ABOUTSTATZON.......................................................................................................................383AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023AuthorRikaMelissa,DataJournalist,E-mobilityRikacametoStatzonwithabackgroundinmarketresearch,bothinqualitativeandquantitativestudies.Shehasastronginterestindatacollectionandanalysisandhowtocommunicatethosedatainasimpleyetinterestingfashion.Thisbookexplorestheelectricmobilityrevolutionanditsanticipatedeffectsonthecitiesinwhichweresideandplanfor.Theriseofe-mobilityisverymuchrelatedtotherisingawarenessofenvironmentalproblems.Thetransportsectoraccountedfor37%ofthetotalglobalCO2emissions.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)recordedemissionsasbigas7.7GtCO2wasproducedbythetransportsectorin2021.Around77%ofthatnumbercamefromtheroadtransportcategoryinwhichpassengercarsproducedmoreemissionscomparedtoanyothermodeofroadtransport.Itisclearthate-mobilityandsustainabilityarecloselylinked:themoree-mobilitysolutionsweadopt,thelargerthedecreaseinCO2andothergreenhousegasemissions.Transitiontoe-mobilityandrenewableenergygenerationholdsthekeytoacleaner,healthierfuture.Someimportantpointsthatwillbecoveredinthisbookare:•Globale-mobilitymarket•Globalelectricbusmarket•Globalelectricscootermarket•Globalautonomousvehiclemarket•Globalbatterymarket•EuropeEVmarket4AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023E-mobility:ElectrifyingtheWayWeMoveHowdowedefinee-mobility?Gartnerdefineselectromobility,ore-mobilityforshort,astheuseofelectricpowertraintechnologies,ITtechnologies,andconnectedinfrastructurestomoveavehicle.Powertraintechnologiesincludefullyelectricvehicles,plug-inhybrids,aswellashydrogenfuelcellvehiclesthatconverthydrogenintoelectricity.Theimageofanelectricvehicle,orEV,probablycomestomindwhenwetalkaboute-mobility.Theriseofelectricvehicleshasbeentalkedaboutinrecentyears.EuromonitorreportedtheregistrationofEVshasgrownmorethantriplebetweentheyears2017to2021from3.7millionunitsto11.8millionunits.Itisclearlyafast-growingmarket.However,itisimportanttorememberthate-mobilityismuchmorethanjustpassengercars.Thedevelopmentofe-mobilityshouldalsobeaccompaniedbythedevelopmentoftransportationinallforms:e-buses,carsharing,e-scooters,e-bikes,bikepaths,pedestrianareas,andothersbecausereworkingthemobilitynetworkmeansrevolutionizingtheculturethatinfluenceshowpeoplechoosetheirmodeoftransportation.BasicbreakdownofelectricvehiclesElectricvehiclescomeindifferenttypes.Someelectricvehiclescanrelyonfuelcellsorgasolinegeneratorstoprovideelectricityinsteadofpowerfulbatterybanks.Theunifyingfactoristhateveryelectricvehicleincludesanelectricmotortodrivethevehicle,eitheraloneorincombinationwithagasoline-reliantinternalcombustionengine(ICE).OneverybasicofEVsbreakdownisthefollowing:EV/BEV:Electricvehicles/BatteryElectricvehicles.Thesearepureelectricvehiclesrelyingonarechargeablebatteryasthepowersourcetorunthevehicle.Theycanbechargedatapowerstationeitherathomeoratachargingstation.HEV:Hybridelectricvehiclesthatusebothelectricpowerandthetraditionalinternalcombustionengine(ICE)thatrunsongas.Theelectricbatteriesarechargedautonomouslythroughenergyfromthegasengine.Italsousesregenerativebraking,meaningthevehiclecapturesenergyeverytimedriverhitsthebrakeandsavesitforlateruse.PHEV:Plug-inhybridvehiclesareavarietyofhybridelectricsthatcanbepluggedintochargewithalargerbatterythannormalhybrids(HEVs).ThevehiclecanbechargedathomeoratpublicstationsjustlikeanEV.Forsomepeople,thisisanicecompromiseasitgivesyouatasteofEVwiththesecurityofagastankwhendoinglongtrips.5AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023FCEV:Fuelcellelectricvehiclesthatrunoncompressedhydrogenthatiscombinedwithoxygeninsideafuelcellstacktogenerateelectricity.NoelectricbatteriesareusedinthistypeofvehicleHowmuchcleanerise-mobilitycomparedtoconventionaltransportmode?Whenvehiclesarerunningonelectricity,theyproducezerotailpipeemissions,butemissionsmaybeproducedbythesourceofelectricalpowersuchasapowerplant.Inareasthatuserelativelycleansourcesforelectricitythentheelectricvehicleswillhavelowerwell-to-wheelemissionsincomparisontoconventionalvehiclesrunningongasolineordiesel.Inregionsheavilydependentoncoalforelectricity,thewell-to-wheelemissionswillincreaseevenwhenthevehicleisrunningfullyonelectricity.Transport&EnvironmentOrganizationfoundoutthatintheworst-casescenario,anelectriccarwithabatteryproducedinChinaanddriveninPolandstillemits37%lessCO2thancarsrunningongasoline.Andinthebest-casescenario,anelectriccarwithabatteryproducedinSwedenanddriveninSweden,theemissionis83%less.6AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023AnotherstudybyInternationalCouncilandCleanTransportation(ICCT)waslookingattheamountofgreenhousegasemissionscreatedbyEVsindifferentcountries.Fullyelectricvehiclesbyfarproducedthelowestemissionscomparedtoothercarswithdifferenttypesofpowertrains.Medium-sizeEVs'greenhouseemissionsarelowerthancomparablegasolinecarsby66%–69%inEurope,60%–68%intheUnitedStates,37%–45%inChina,and19%–34%inIndia.BarrierstoEVs’adoption7AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023Asoftoday,electriccarsarenotyetridingthemainstreamwave.AstudybyAppinioshowsthatonlyoneoutoftendriversintheUSdrivesafullyelectricorplug-inhybrid.Infact,mostnon-ownershaveneverevensatinsideanelectriccaralthoughthedesiretotryitoutisgreat.RangeanxietyremainsabarriertothewidespreadadoptionofEVs.BatterycapacitiesofcurrentEVsrangefrom17.6kWhintheSmartEQ,whichtranslatestoamaximumof58milesdrive,to100kWhintheTeslaModelSwhichoffersamaximumrangeof351miles.Morerecently,LucidAirbecametheworld’slongest-rangeEVoffering520milesofdrivingrange.Whenitcomestotheactofpurchase,nothingisasimportantastheprice.Electricvehiclesareperceivedasexpensive,especiallywhenpeoplekeepassociatingEVswithTeslawhichpositionsitselfasaluxurybrand.EVshaveahigherup-frontcostthangasolinecarsbutarelessexpensiveoverthecourseoftheirlifetime,mainlybecauseelectricityisrelativelyaffordable.TheaveragepriceofanEVintheUSin2022isaboutUSD66,000.Bycomparison,mid-sizedcarsareaboutUSD32,000andfull-sizedcarsareUSD44,000.EVstickerpriceismorealignedwiththepriceofaluxurycarthanmainstream.DespitemanyforecastssayingthepriceofEVswillgodownovertheyears,thepandemicactuallyincreasedthepriceofEVsevenmoreduetoshortagesofbatteries,lithium,andcomponentslikesemiconductors.DemandforEVsisstillstrong,however,especiallyfromaffluentbuyers,makingmanufacturersmoreinclinedtoproduceluxuryEVs.ChargingissuesisanotherbarriertoEVadoption.Theissuesincludeproblemssuchaschargingspeeds,chargerinaccessibility,costofchargers,andchargingvariancebyvehicles.Chargingpointsarerelativelyeasytofindinurbansettings.Theyareavailableonpopularroadways,motorways,andserviceareas.Thesamecannotbesaidwhenadriverfindsthemselvesinruralarea.Locatingachargingstationinsuchareacanbecumbersomeandonceuserfindsastation,theymayfaceanotherproblemwithchargertypeorconnectorfit.CurrentOEMsoftencreateachargingsystemexclusiveonlytospecificEVswhichcanbeconfusingandintimidatingforpotentialEVconsumers.8AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023Batteriesandchargers:importantcomponentsofe-mobilityAselectricvehiclesgainpopularitysodoeseveryotherinfrastructureandsupportsolutionthatenablesthevehicletofunction.Battery,forinstance,isafundamentalpartofe-mobility.Thecostofthebatteryaccountsfor35%-45%oftheEV’sstickerprice.MarketsandMarketsforecastedthemarketsizeforEVbatterieswillgrowtremendouslyfromUSD27.2billionin2021toUSD84.2in2026.Today'skeyfocusforOEMsisachievingtheoptimumbatterylife,reducedcost,fastercharging,andbiggerpower.Chargingstationsareanimportantinfrastructurefore-mobility.Itsavailabilitycanactuallyinfluencecustomers’purchasedecisions.Althoughthenumberofstationshasspurtedovertheyears,theyarenotequallydispersed.TakingEuropeasanexample,70%ofallchargingstationsintheregionarelocatedinTheNetherlands,Germany,andFrance.Thisisanopportunityforthemarkettokeepgrowing.WecanexpectthemarketforEV’schargingstationstogrowfromUSD7.9billionin2022toUSD32.2billionin2032,basedondataprovidedbyApolloResearchReport'sdata.Chargingcables,anotheressentialcomponentforelectriccars,areusedtoconnectthecar'schargertothechargingstationbeitathomeorinpublic.Theycomeinseveraltypesthatcandeterminethetimeyouneedtochargeyourvehicle.EVchargingcablemarketsizereachedUSD400millionin2021,accordingtoMarketsandMarkets.ThisnumberisexpectedtorisetoUSD2.2billionby2026.ThemovetowardsMobilityasaService(MaaS)Neweconomicmodelshavebeguntoconsidersharingconceptsasawaytogainprofit.Inasharingeconomy,assetsthatarecurrentlynotbeingusedsuchasparkedcarsandextrabedroomscanberentedout.Withthegrowingsuccessofrenteditemsandservices,newtransportationoptionshavecometothemarket.TheideaofMaaSistoreplacetheneedtoownavehiclebyintegratingvariousformsoftransportservicesintoasinglemobilityserviceaccessibleonan"as-needed"basis.AMaaSoperatorfacilitatesadiversemodeoftransport,betheypublictransport,carsharing,bikerental,oracombinationthereof.Fortheuser,MaaSprovidesasingleapplicationtoaccessmobilitywithasinglepaymentchannelinsteadofmultipleticketingandpaymentoperations.NextMoveStrategyConsultingestimatedthemarketvalueofMaaswhichtheydividedintofourdifferentsegmentsofproducttypes:carrental,car-sharing,ride-hailing,andtwo-wheelersharing.ItisexpectedthatthetotalmarketforMaaSwillexpandalmost20timeswithintheforecastperiodof2021-2030,fromUSD3.3billiontoUSD65.8billion,registeringa39.5%CAGR.9AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023AutonomousVehiclesGartnerdefinesanAutonomousVehicle(AV)asonethatcandriveitselffromastartingpointtoapredetermineddestinationin“autopilot”modeusingvariousin-vehicletechnologiesandsensors,includingadaptivecruisecontrol,activesteering(steerbywire),anti-lockbrakingsystems(brakebywire),GPSnavigationtechnology,lasers,andradar.Thetransitiontoanautopilot,self-drivingcarwillnotoccursosuddenly.Asoftoday,mostautonomouscarsontheroadfallinto“semi-autonomous”categorywithonlylimitedamountof“fullyautonomous”vehiclesstillintestingphase.TheSocietyofAutomotiveEngineers(SAE)defines6levelsofdrivingautomationrangingfrom0(fullymanual)to5(fullyautonomous).MostcarsproducedinrecentyearshavetheoptionofLevel1automationwithafewreachingLevel2.SomecompanieshavealreadyannouncedtheirproductionofLevel3personalautonomouscars,butthesewillonlyhitthemarketafewyearsfromnow.Level4andLevel5developmentsaredesignedmostlyforride-sharingorpublictransportusesinmind.ThetopicsofEVsandAutonomousVehicles(AVs)areinevitablyintertwined.Theshifttoelectricpoweredvehicleshappensalmostsimultaneouslywiththedevelopmentofprogressivelyautomatedcars.Bothconceptsaimatamoresustainablemeansoftransportandarebeingimplementedgreatlyintheshared-mobilityscheme.Thetrendofautomation,electrification,andridesharingarereinforcingoneanotherandareintegralpartsofmobilityofthefuture.10AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023Sources:Statzon,ADB,BloombergNEF,AFDC,Lifewire,Transport&Environment,IEA,Appinio,Exro,DigitalTrends,USDOE,iDatereportonFutureofMobility,Virta,InteractAnalysis,McKinsey,IEA,Worldbankblog,Gartner,SAE,IEALevelDriverInvolvementFeaturesLevel0Noautomation.Driverperformsalldrivingtasks.Warningortemporaryassistancefeaturessuchasemergencybraking,blindspotwarning,lanechangingwarning.Level1DriverAssistance.Drivercontrolsvehiclewithsomedrivingassistfeaturesincludedinthevehicledesign.LanesteeringORadaptivecruisecontrol.Level2PartialAutomation.Driverremainsengagedwithdrivingtasksbutenjoysvehicle’scombinedautomaticfunctionsLanesteeringANDadaptivecruisecontrolthatcanbeutilizedatthesametime.Level3ConditionalAutomation.Driverdoesnothavetodrivebutneedstomonitortheenvironmentallthetimeandtakecontrolofthecarshortlyafterbeingalerted.Trafficjamchauffeurfunction.Level4HighAutomation.Drivermayhavetheoptiontotakecontrol,butvehiclecanperformalldrivingtasksundercertainconditions.Robotaxiordriverlesstaxi.Vehiclemayormaynothavepedalsandsteeringwheel.Level5FullAutomation.Drivermayhavetheoptiontotakecontrol,butvehicleiscapableofperformingalldrivingtasksunderallconditions.SimilartoLevel4butfeaturesarenotlimitedtocertainconditionsonly.11AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023GlobalE-mobilityMarketIntheirlatestreport,NextMoveStrategyConsultingforecastedtheglobale-mobilitymarketwillreachUSD2.3trillionby2030.Thefirmincludedelectriccars,electricmotorcycles,electricscooters,electricskateboards,andelectricwheelchairsintothetermofe-mobility.The2021marketwasvaluedatUSD279.5billion,meaningthemarketwillseeanannualgrowthrateof26.4%toreachthe2030forecastedvalue.Theelectriccarsegmentaccountedforover65%shareofthee-mobilitymarketin2021andisestimatedtoretainitsdominanceovertheforecastperiodwithmoreorlessthesamesizeofmarketshare.Intermsofmarketvalue,thissegmentwasworthUSD180.5billionin2021andwillreachaforecastedmarketvalueworthUSD1.5trillionby2030.TheelectricscootersegmentisthesecondbiggestinthemarketwitharevenueofUSD51billionin2021,takingup18%ofthemarketshare.Theotherthreesegmentsareelectricmotorcyclewith13%marketshare,electricskateboard(2%),andelectricwheelchair(2%).12AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023BatteryandvoltagesegmentationBasedontheuseofbattery,E-mobilitymarketissegmentedintosealedleadacid,NickelMetalHydride(NiMH),andlithium-ion(Li-ion).TheLi-ionsegmentisdominatingthemarketin2021andaccountedfor52%ofthemarket.ThesegmentisexpectedtoregisterapromisingCAGRof26.3%overtheforecastperiod.Afteradipinthemarketduringtheyear2020causedbyglobalindustrialshutdowns,thee-mobilityworldisstillfacingacrisisofbatterysupply.Thissituationispredictedtolastuntil2023,accordingtoInteractAnalysis.SupplyissotightthatEVmanufacturersmustfirstreservethebatteryinadvancebeforetheytheirEVproductionplans.Despitethecrisis,productioncapacityforlithium-ionbatteriessurpassed1TWhforthefirsttimein202,andproductionrateissettoincreasetofollowtherisingdemandsforelectricvehicles.Intermsofvoltage,thee-mobilitymarketcanbecategorizedinto5segmentswhichare:lessthan24V,24V,36V,48V,andgreaterthan48V.The24Vsegmentaccountedfor27%ofthetotalmarketsharein2021oraroundUSD75.5billioninmarketvalue.24Vbatteriesarecommonlyusedforelectricskateboardsandbikesandtheyareoftenpreferredforbeinglightweight,easytoinstall,andpowerful.Demandforthissegmentwillrisesteadily,anditwillcontinuetoaccountforanotablemarketshareuntiltheendoftheforecastperiod.Thegreaterthan48Vsegmentisforecastedtowitnesssignificantgrowthuntil2030,growingataCAGRof27%.Customers’demandforlongerrangehascontributedtoconstantresearchanddevelopmentofvehicleswithlargervoltage.Thissegmentaccountedfor24%ofthemarketsharein2021withamarketvalueofUSD67.5billion.By2030itwillcontinuetoretainitsshareofthemarketwithaforecastedmarketvalueofUSD587billion.Asiaisleadingthee-mobilitymarketAsiaPacificisattheforefrontofe-mobilitymovement.ThisregionisleadingthemarketbygainingamarketvalueofUSD137.5billionin2021,inotherwords,itcontrolsaround49%ofthetotalmarketshare.Therapiddevelopmentofe-mobilitymarketsinAsiaissupportedbystrongpolicyactionsonfourfronts:officialEVtargets,restrictionsonICEproductionandsales,consumerincentives,andsupportforEVcharginginfrastructure(EVCI).GovernmentsinmaturemarketssuchasChina,Japan,andSouthKoreahaveestablishedcomprehensivepolicyframeworkstosupporttheadoptionofelectriccars.EmergingmarketssuchasIndia,Thailand,andIndonesia,arecurrentlythelargestmicroe-mobilitymarketswithhighestnumbersof2-wheelerelectricvehiclessales.India,forinstance,surpassedChinain2017tobecomethelargestmarketforelectrictwo-wheelers.Chinastill,however,holdstheleadershippositionintheoveralle-mobilitymarket,notonlyintheregionbutalsoglobally.Asacountry,ChinaaccountedforUSD93.2billioninrevenueoraround33%ofthetotalmarketshare.Amarketmuchbiggerthananyothercountry.MoreelectriccarsweresoldinChinain2021(3.3million)thanintheentireworldin2020.Granted,Chinatakesbenefitsfromitshugepopulationwhichcreatesahighdomesticdemandforitslocalelectricvehiclebrands.AlthoughtheyhavenotbeenexportingtoEuropeortheUS,Chinesebrandsareontheriseduringthelast13AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023coupleofyearsandtheyhaveestablishedsolidpositionsbothlocallyandregionally.In2021,China’sBYDrose5percentinmarketshare,andWuling’saffordableelectriccar,HongguangMiniEV,soldmorethan400,000unitswithinayearofitsdebut.AsiaPacificwillfacecompetitionfromtheEuropeanmarketthatissettogrowat29%CAGR.ThehighestCAGRamongotherregions.InEurope,traditionalcarmakersareincreasinglyelectrifyingtheirproductranges.Since2015,thegovernmentexertedagradualtighteningofCO2emissionsthrough2030asamovetowardseliminationofICE.ThisrulingwillmakeitalmostimpossibleformanufacturerstomakemoneyfromsellingICEcarstheyareforcedtofocusonproducingandsellingelectricvehicles.Europee-mobilitymarketwasvaluedatUSD80billionin2021oraround28.5%intermsofmarketshare.Themarketwillexpandtogain34%shareby2030withforecastedmarketvalueofUSD790billion.GermanyistheleadingmarketinEuropewithamarketsizeworthUSD24billionin2021.HometobigautomotivemanufacturerssuchasVolkswagen,Mercedes,andBMW,Germanywantstotakealeadingroleintheproductionanduseofelectricvehiclesinthise-mobilityera.RapidgrowthofelectriccarregistrationsinEuropecanbeattributedtogovernmentstimulusmeasuresforthosebuyingelectriccarsinsteadoftraditionalICTs.SalesgrowthhasalsobeenboostedbytaxbenefitsandsubsidiesappliedinmanyEuropeancountries.14AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023GlobalElectricBusMarketCitiesareincreasinglyadoptingmoreelectricbuseswithadeadlinetophaseoutfossilfuelbusesinthefuture.Nearly25%ofregisteredbusesin2021werezero-emission,accordingtonewdatafromTransport&Environment.CountrieslikeDenmark,NewZealand,andTheNetherlandshavealreadysetfor100%zero-emissionbusprocurementsby2025,whileCostaRicahasalong-termgoaltoreach100%busfleetelectrificationby2050.TheglobalmarketforelectricbusesreachesUSD19.2billionin2022,basedonanestimationbyApolloResearchReports.Thisnumberwillgrowatanannualrateof13.3%,themarketsizewillhitUSD66.5billionbytheendoftheforecastperiodin2032.AnothermarketevaluationfromTheInsightPartnersgivesamorepromisingforecast.Accordingtotheirresearch,theglobalmarketforelectricbusesisgrowingat20.2%CAGRduringtheforecastperiodof2021to2028.ThemarketwasvaluedatUSD29billionin2021andisgrowingtoreachUSD105billionby2028.Otherthantheincreasinggovernmentinitiativetodecarbonizepublictransportationfleets,thefallingpriceofbatterieshasacceleratedtheadoptionrateofelectricbusesbycitiesandcountries.Batteriesmakeup40%ofthecostofelectricbuses.Withthecostoflithium-ionbatterypacksexpectedtogodownby52%between2018-2030,thehighinitialcosttodevelopanelectrifiedtransportfleetcanbereduced,andthegrowthoftheelectricbusmarketwillbeencouraged.15AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023ChinadominatestheglobalelectricbusmarketAsiaPacificistheleadingregionintheglobalelectricbusmarket.ThisregiongainedUSD26billioninmarketvalueduringtheyear2021andthisnumberwillgrowtoUSD96billionby2028,registeringan18.9%CAGR.ChinaalonecontributedUSD24milliontotheregion'soverallmarketvaluein2021.Intermsofmarketshare,Chinaisdominatingthemarketbothregionallyandglobally,controllingover80%oftheglobalmarketshare,whichwillbemaintainedbythecountrythroughouttheforecastperiod.Chinahasmaderemarkableprogressinrollingoutnewenergybuses(NEB),mostlyconsistingofbatteryelectricbuses.Bytheendof2020,54%ofthecountry'sbusfleetwillbeelectrified,andseveralcitieslikeShenzhen,Tianjin,andZhengzhou,tonameafew,haveachieved100%ofbusfleetelectrification.Theshiftfromconventionalfossilfuel-basedvehiclestoelectricbuseshasmadeapositivedifferenceinChina.Onceknownasoneofthemostpollutedcities,Beijing’sairandwaterqualityhavesignificantlyimproved.ThenumberofdayswithheavypollutionintheChinesecapitalwasdownto10in2020from43in2015,adropofnearly80%inpollution.InEurope,themarketisacceleratingslightlyfaster.Growingata21.6%CAGR,thehighestamongotherregions,EuropemarketvalueisexpectedtoincreasefromUSD1,5billionin2021toUSD5,8billionby2028.Newregistrationsofzero-emissionbusesoutnumberedgasinalmosteverypartof16AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023Europein2021.TheEUCleanVehicleDirectivesetsminimumquotasforpurchasingnewzero-emissionpublicbusesforitsmembers,althoughthequotasaredifferentfromcountrytocountry.InmostWesternEuropeancountries,atleast22.5%ofthetotalbusfleetshouldbezeroemissionby2025,risingto32.5%by2030,formostcountrieswithintheEU,accordingtoa2021reportpublishedbyINGwiththetitle“AllAboardEurope’sElectricBusRevolution”.NorthAmericaislaggingbehindAPACandEuropeinthetransitiontoelectricbuses.TheregioncontributedUSD756milliontotheglobalmarketinrevenue,seizingaround2.6%ofthetotalmarketshare.TheUS,inparticular,remainsalongwayfromacompletetransitiontoanelectricfleet.Thelonglifespanofdieselbusesispartoftheproblem.Mostdieselbuseslastapproximately12years,meaningitwilltakesometimebeforetheyareupforreplacement.Federalregulationalsocapsthenumberofbusesthatatransitagencymayhave,makingitmoredifficultforthemtoaddelectricbusestotheircurrentfleets.Theregioniscatchingup,focusingfirstonthecountry’siconicschoolbuses.PresidentBidenlaunchedaplantoconvertall500,000USschoolbusestozero-emissionvehiclesduringhispresidentialcampaignin2020.Currently,schoolbusesarerunondiesel,butthelimiteddailymileagedoesnotleadtosignificantsavings,makingashifttoelectrificationsensible.AsofJune2022,USschooldistrictshavecommittedto12,275electricschoolbusesin38states,accordingtoareportfromtheWashington,DC-basednon-profitWorldResourcesInstitute(WRI).Thenumberisalmosta10-foldincreasefromAugust2021datawhenWRIbegantrackingschoolelectricbusesaroundthecountry.ElectricbusmarketsegmentationTheelectricbusmarketissegmentedbasedonvehicletype:batteryelectricbuses,hybridelectricbuses,andplug-inhybridelectricbuses.Thebatteryelectricbussegmentisthemarketleader,withmorethan90%sharein2021.Ahigheracquisitioncostofelectricbusesisjustifiedbecausetheoverallcostislessexpensiveoverthecourseofitslifetime.Afullyelectricbusalsoproduceszeropipelineemissionscomparedtohybridswhichsometimesrunonfossilfuels.Thehybridelectricbusandplug-inhybridelectricbuseachgainedamarketshareof4%and2%in2021.Segmentationbyend-userisdividedbetweenthepublicandprivatesectors.Thepublicsegmentheldthelargestrevenuewith88%marketsharein2021,whiletheprivatesegmentisanticipatedtoexpandrapidlyataCAGRof22.4%duringtheforecastperiod.ManyprivatebusoperatorsexperiencedsetbacksduringtheCovid-19pandemic.Now,aslockdownsarebeinglifted,thesurgeofmigrationandtourismactivitieswillpositivelyimpacttheprivatetransportationindustry.Theelectricbusmarketissegmentedbasedonlengthintolessthan9m,9−14m,andabove14m.Throughouttheforecastperiod,the9–14msegmentwilldominatethemarketwitharound50%marketshare.ThissegmentmakesupmostoftheelectricbusfleetofChinaasitisidealforcitytransitintermsofsize,passengercapacity,andbatteryconsumption.Citiesareincreasinglyadoptingmoreelectricbuseswithadeadlinetophaseoutfossilfuelbusesinthefuture.Nearly25%ofregisteredbusesin2021werezero-emission,accordingtonewdatafromTransport&Environment.CountrieslikeDenmark,NewZealand,andTheNetherlandshavealreadysetfor100%zero-emissionbus17AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023procurementsby2025,whileCostaRicahasalong-termgoaltoreach100%busfleetelectrificationby2050.TheglobalmarketforelectricbusesreachesUSD19.2billionin2022,basedonanestimationbyApolloResearchReports.Thisnumberwillgrowatanannualrateof13.3%,themarketsizewillhitUSD66.5billionbytheendoftheforecastperiodin2032.AnothermarketevaluationfromTheInsightPartnersgivesamorepromisingforecast.Accordingtotheirresearch,theglobalmarketforelectricbusesisgrowingat20.2%CAGRduringtheforecastperiodof2021to2028.ThemarketwasvaluedatUSD29billionin2021andisgrowingtoreachUSD105billionby2028.Sources:Statzon,Transport&Environment,ICCT,SustainableBus,TransitionChina,GlobalTimes,CGTN,ING,AutonomyParis,Electrek,InteractAnalysis18AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023GlobalElectricScooterMarketElectricscootersareconqueringthecitystreets.Itisapopularoptionforlast-milevehiclesandaterrificwaytoavoidtrafficjamsinthecity.Inadditiontothat,peopletendtoperceiveelectricscootersasagreenertransportationchoiceaswellasbeingcool.Itisnosurprisethattheadoptionrateofthesescootersisgoingup,bothbymunicipalitiesandindividuals.Electricscootershavebecomeoneofthefastest-growingmicro-mobilityoptionsacrosstheworld.AccordingtoNextMoveStrategyConsulting,theglobalmarketforelectricscootersisacceleratingata25.3%CAGR.ThemarketispredictedtoreachUSD389billionin2030,anincreaseof760%fromthe2021number,whichwasaroundUSD51billion.Electricscooterstakeuparound68%ofthewholeelectric2-wheelermarket,basedondataprovidedbyApolloResearchReport.Theother32%isclaimedbyelectricmotorcycles.Withinthewholee-mobilitymarket,electricscooteristhesecondbiggestsegmentafteranelectriccar,contributingaround18%ofthetotalmarketshare.19AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023AsiaPacificleadstheglobalmarket,butEuropeshowsthestrongestgrowthpotentialAsiaPacifichasthelargestmarketshareintheglobalelectricscootermarketthankstosignificantinvestmentsincharginginfrastructureandgovernmentsubsidiesforbattery-poweredscooters.TheglobalelectricscootermarketisexpectedtoreachUSD25billionin2021toUSD162billionby2030ataCAGRof23%duringtheforecastperiodChinaisthemainmarketintheregionwiththebiggestsalesofelectricscootersaswellasthebiggestmanufacturinghub.Thecountry'sannualsalesofe-scootersexceeded30millionunitslastyear,andthetotalownershipofsuchscooterswascloseto300millionbytheendoflastyear.InChina,morecommutersareinvestingintheirlong-termdailytransportationneedsbypurchasinge-scooters,furtheracceleratingthishugemarket.20AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023Europeisthesecondbiggestregionintheglobalmarket,worthUSD12billionin2021.Thisregionwillexperiencethemostrobustgrowthat30%CAGRduringtheforecastperiod.By2030Europe'smarketvaluewillhitUSD125billion,expandingitsmarketsharefrom23%in2021to32%by2030.TheadoptionofelectricvehiclesremainsattheforefrontofmanyEuropeancountries’agendastowardreducingcarbonemissions.Justasthesalesofelectriccarsaresoaringinthisregion,thereisalsoaboominthesalesofelectricscooters.MorethanhalfamillionelectricscootersroamedtheEuropeanstreetslastJune,upfrom400000inFebruarythisyear,accordingtomodelingdonebyZag,anonlinemediumdedicatedtoreportingmicro-mobility.Withstrongupwardmomentuminthemarket,electricscooternumberscouldhit600,000bynow.SealedleadacidisstillthemostpreferredoptionforbatteriesBasedonproducts,theglobalelectricscootermarketcanbecategorizedintofolding,standing/self-balancing,andretroscooters.Althoughstandingscootershavethehighestpenetrationintermsofvolume,theretroscootersegmentisdominatingthemarketintermsofvaluemainlybecauseofitshigherpricepoint.Contributingmorethan60%ofthetotalmarketvalue,theretroscootersegmentwasvaluedatUSD32billionin2021.Thefoldingscooterandstanding/self-balancingscootersegmentseachclaimed12%and25%shareinthemarket,respectively,duringtheyear2021.Onthesubjectofbatteries,sealedleadacidbatteriesarestillthemostpopularoptiontobeusedbybothelectricmotorcyclesandscootersduetotheirrobustnessandlow-costbenefits.Around75%ofelectrictwo-wheelersarerunningonthisbatterycomparedtotherest35%thatrunonlithium-ionbatteries.Intermsofvoltage,the48Vsegmentdominatestheelectrictwo-wheelermarket,withmorethan60%ofelectricscootersandmotorcyclescombinedutilizingthisvoltage.Sources:Statzon,ChinaDailyHK,Zagdaily21AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023GlobalBatteryMarketBatteryisthefifthlargestsegmentwithintheelectricalequipmentmarketaccountingfor6%ofthetotalmarketshare.Theothersegmentsarelightingequipment,powergeneration,transmission&controlequipment,householdappliances,andwiresandcables.TheglobalbatterymarketwasvaluedatUSD84billionin2021,accordingtomarketdatafromTheBusinessResearchCompany.ThefirmpredictedthatthemarketwouldgrowtoUSD139billionby2026,registeringa10.6%CAGR.Thisisanaccelerationfromthepreviousfive-yearperiodwhenthemarketgrewat7.75%CAGR.InkwoodResearch,anotherfirmwithinStatzon’sdataprovidersnetwork,gaveahigherestimationofthemarketwhereitreachedUSD112billionin2021andwillhitUSD424billionby2030,growingatamoreconfidentCAGRof16.68%overtheforecastedyearsof2022to2030.Themarketgrowthcanbeattributedtotrendshappeningduringrecentyears,mostnotably,theincreaseddemandforcleanenergy,themovetograduallyphaseoutfossilfuels,theriseofelectricvehicles,higherpenetrationofmarinebatteries(batteriesspecificallydesignedtobeusedonboats)andfactoryautomationthatenablesfasterandmoreefficientproductionofbatteries.22AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023ThemarketforprimaryandsecondarybatteriesThebatterymarketissegmentedintoprimaryandsecondarybatteries.Primarybatteriesaresmallsingle-usebatteriesthatgenerateelectricityfromthechemicalreactionsbetweentheterminalsandelectrolytes.Typically,theseareusedinportabledevicesthatrequirelowcurrentsuchasflashlightsandwatches.Secondarybatteriesarerechargeablebatteriesmostlyusedinautomotive,household,andindustrialapplications.Thissegmentisdominatingthemarketwithan84%shareofthemarketandwortharoundUSD70billionin2021,whiletheprimarybatterysegmentgainedaround16%ofthemarketshare,valuedatUSD14billion.Lithium-ionandlead-acidbatteriesarethemostpopularBasedontechnology,InkwoodResearchdividedthebatterymarketinto10segments,ofwhichthelithium-ionbatteriesheldthelargestmarketsharein2021,accountingfor49%ofthemarket,valuedatUSD54.6billion.Thissegmentwillalsogrowthefastest,acceleratingata19.5%CAGR.In2030,themarketforlithium-ionbatteriesispredictedtoreachUSD257billion,basedontheforecastbyInkwoodResearch.Lithium-ionbatteriesareaneco-friendlieralternativetotraditionalsourcesofenergy,whichhassignificantlyboostedtheirusageinelectricvehiclesandgridstoragefacilities.Themarketforthesebatterieswillalsobeboostedbythemanufacturing,railway,andsolarpowersectorsastheneedforstorageandpowerbackupislikelytoincreaseinthefuture.Thelead-acidbatteryisthesecondbiggestsegmentinthemarket.In2021thissegmentiscontrollingaround38%ofthemarketshare,valuedatUSD43billion.Thissegmentwillexperienceagrowthat13%CAGR,anditsmarketvaluewillreachUSD121billionby2030.Thereliabilityandaffordablepriceoflead-acidbatteriesmakethemsuitableforbothconsumerandindustrialapplications.Anothertwobigsegmentsworthmentioningarethezinc-manganesedioxidebatterysegmentwhichgainedamarketvalueofUSD5billionin2021(4.5%ofthetotalmarketshare),andthenickel-metalhydrate(NiMH)batterysegment,withUSD3.1billionworthofmarketvalueoraround3%shareofthetotalmarket.23AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023Acloserlookatthelithium-ionbatterymarketLithium-ionbatteriesarepartofourdailylives,commonlyfoundonconsumerelectronicssuchaslaptops,tablets,ormobilephones.Alithium-ionbatteryisarechargeablebatterythatuseslithiumionsasthemaincomponentofelectrochemistry.Thistypeofbatteryispopularforbeinglightweightandcompact.Itneedsminimalmaintenanceandstandsupwelltorepeatedcharging.Smalllithium-ionbatteriesarewidelyusedinportableelectronicdevicessuchaswatchesormobilephones,whilelargeoneshavebeendevelopedtopowerelectricvehicles.Aspreviouslywritten,InkwoodResearchestimatesthatlithium-ionbatteriesaccountfor49%ofthetotalbatterymarket,witharevenueofUSD54.6billionin2021.MarketsandMarketsvaluedthegloballithium-ionbatterymarketatUSD44.5billionin2022andforecastedthemarkettogrowtoUSD135.1billionby2031,ataCAGRof13.1%.AstuteAnalyticaofferedamoreoptimisticforecastwherethemarketisvaluedatUSD60.3billionin2021andprojectedtoreachUSD185billionby2027,registeringa20.5%CAGR.24AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023Lithium-ionbatteryusageine-mobilityThegrowthofthelithium-ionbatterymarketcanbeattributedtotheincreaseduseofthesebatteriesinelectricvehiclesandthefieldofrenewableenergy.Duringthelastseveralyears,thesalesofelectricvehicleshaveexperiencedexponentialgrowth.Euromonitorreportedtheregistrationofelectriccarshasgrownmorethantriplebetweentheyears2017to2021,from3.7millionunitsto11.8millionunits.NextMoveStrategyConsultingreportedthee-mobilitymarketsizehasreachedUSD279billionin2021andisanticipatedtogroweightfoldby2030toreachUSD2.3trillioninwhichelectriccars,electricmotorcycles,electricbikes,electricskateboards,andelectricwheelchairsareincludedwithintheterme-mobility.Themarketgrowthoflithium-ionbatterieselectricisfurtheraugmentedbyothersectors,suchasconsumerelectronics,medicalapplications,andgridstorage.Lithium-ionbatteriesarecurrentlythedominantstoragetechnologyusedtosupportpowergridsinlargefacilitiestoensureasteadysupplyofrenewableenergy.25AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023Lithium-ionbatterysegmentationsIntermsofapplication,theautomotivesegmentheldthelargestrevenueshareofover51%in2021,withamarketvalueofUSD37.5million.Thissegmentwillalsowitnessthemostlucrativegrowthovertheforecastperiodwitha24.6%CAGR.Lithium-ionbatteriesareintegraltotheelectricandhybridelectricvehiclemarket.Increaseddemandsforelectricvehiclessubsequentlyexpandthelithium-ionbatterymarket.Growingawarenessofrenewableenergyandzero-emissionmovementsinEuropeandNorthAmericahasalsofavoredthegrowthofboththeelectricvehicleandlithium-ionbatterymarkets.26AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023Onthebasisoftype,LithiumNickelMagnesiumCobalt(Li-NMC)segmentaccountedforthelargestrevenuesharein2021,controllingover36%ofthemarketshare.Li-NMCispreferredbyseveralbigautomotivemanufacturersasithasthelowestself-heatingratecomparedtoothertypesoflithium-ionbatteries.LithiumFerroPhosphate(LFP)andLithiumCobaltOxide(LCO)arethesecondandthirdbiggestsegmentsinthemarket,eachwith31%and19%marketshare,respectively.Whenitcomestocapacities,the3000–10000mAHsegmentisdominatingthemarket,anditwillkeepitsdominationuntiltheendoftheforecastperiodsinceitisalsothesegmentthathasthemostrapidgrowth.Growingat22.3%CAGR,themarketvalueforthissegmentwillgrowfromUSD34.7billionin2021toUSD116.2billionby2027,meaningitwillexpanditsmarketsharefrom57%in2021to64%by2027.27AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023KeyplayersintheglobalbatterymarketThemarketforbatteriesishighlyfragmented,withthetoptenbiggestcompanieshavingagriponmorethan50%ofthemarket.Thesecompaniesarealsoinvolvedintheusageanddistributionofbatteries.SamsungSDI,LGChem,BYD,TDK,Panasonic,Yuasa,andA123systemsaresomecompaniesthatmadeittothemajorplayerlistinthemarket.Sources:Statzon,InteractAnalysis,BatteryUniversity28AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023GlobalAutonomousVehicleMarketAutonomousvehicleshavebecomeoneofthehottesttopicsintheautomotiveindustry.Alsoknownasself-drivingcars,thesevehiclesareconsideredabreakthroughinnovationwithpotentialmarkets.Althoughitisanemergingmarket,andavisionofafullyself-drivingcarwithouthumaninterventionwillnotbefullyrealizedinthenextfewyears,themarketisalreadygrowingandthriving.Theglobalautonomousvehiclemarket'svaluein2021wasworthUSD87.6billionandby2030willreachUSD614.9billionata24.7%CAGR,accordingtomarketresearchconductedbyNextMoveStrategyConsulting.Robotaxiservicesarealreadyavailableinselectmarketsbutgettingtoafull-scalecommerciallaunchisstillchallengingmostlyduetothelackoftechnologyandregulatorysupport.Fullyautomateddrivingisexpectedtostillbelimitedincertaingeographicalandclimateareasforatleastthenextdecade.29AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023AutonomousvehiclemarketsegmentationsBylevelofautonomousdrivingInthissegmentation,theautonomousvehiclemarketisclassifiedintosemi-autonomousandfullyautonomous.Semi-autonomousmeanstheresponsibilityfordrivingfallstothedriverandthevehicletechnologyisusedasadriver-aidandsafetyfeature.ThiscategoryincludesLevel1toLevel3vehiclesintheSocietyofAutomotiveEngineers(SAE)autonomousdrivinglevel.Ontheotherhand,fullyautonomousvehiclesarecapableofmaneuveringwithoutahumanoperator.TheseareLevel4andLevel5vehiclesatSAEautonomouslevel.Thesemi-autonomoussegmentisthehighestcontributortothismarketgeneratingUSD84.3billionin2021.ThissegmentisanticipatedtoreachUSD524billionby2030,registeringaCAGRof23%.However,thefullyautonomoussegmentwillseeasignificantmarketgrowthat42.9%CAGRduringtheforecastperiod.ThemarketforthissegmentisvaluedatUSD3.3billionin2021andisanticipatedtoreachUSD90billionby2030.IntheirSmartMobilityreport,UBSforecastedthatby2025,around80%ofallnewcarswouldbeequippedwithsomelevelofautonomy.Meanwhile,thedevelopmentoffullyautonomousvehiclesisgearedtowardsshared-mobilityuse.Largescaleapplicationsofthistypeofvehiclearelikelytoemergeinlargermarkets,morelikelycitycenters,thathaveahighervolumeoftripsandaminimalriskofextremeweather.BytypeofmobilityAnothersegmentationistoclassifythemarketintosharedmobilityandpersonalmobility.Today,utilizationofautonomouscarsisdominatedbysharedmobility.ThiswillcontinueinthefutureasfutureownershipofpersonalcarswilldeclineandtripswillmostlyrelyonMobilityasaService(MaaS)whichincludespublictransport,ride-hailing,andsharedmobility.ThesharedmobilitysegmentgainedUSD65.7billionin2021,roughly75%ofthetotalmarket.ThissegmentisexpectedtoreachUSD396.7billionby2030,registeringaCAGRof22.6%.BypropulsiontypeInthissegmentation,themarketisdividedintoInternalCombustionEngine(ICE),BatteryElectricVehicles(BEV),HybridElectricVehicles(HEV),Plug-inHybridElectricVehicles(PHEV),andFuelCellElectricVehicle(FCEV).ICEsegmentiscurrentlydominatingthemarketandvaluedatUSD46.1billionin2021.ThissegmentisanticipatedtoreachUSD281.9billionby2030,growingata22.8%CAGR.However,theEVsegmentiscatchingup.Themarketforfullyelectriccars,orBEVs,isforecastedtoreachUSD227.9billionby30AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-20232030,acceleratingwiththehighestCAGRof27.8%.TheICEandBEVsegmentscombinedaccountedfor82%ofthemarketin2021.Autonomousandelectricvehiclesareinevitablylinked.Theshifttoelectric-runvehicleshappensalmostsimultaneouslywiththedevelopmentofprogressivelyautomatedcars.Bothconceptsaimatamoresustainablemeansoftransportandarebeingimplementedgreatlyintheshared-mobilityscheme.Thetrendofautomation,electrification,andridesharingarereinforcingoneanotherandareintegralpartsofmobilityofthefuture.31AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023USandChinaracingtotoppositionTheUSisthesecondlargestautomotivemarketintheworldandiscurrentlyattheforefrontoftheracetowardfullyautomatedvehicles.Thecountry'sautonomousvehiclemarketwasvaluedatUSD20.7billionin2021andisprojectedtoreachUSD123.8billionby2030,growingataCAGRof22.5%.TheUShasbeenalong-timeleaderinautonomousdrivingtechnology,steeredbytechhubsonthewestcoastwithcompanieslikeUberandTeslamakingheadlinesforbothsuccessesandfailures.ButChinaisgearinguptotakeover.Althoughin2021ChinagainedUSD11.1billionintermsofmarketvalue,roughlyhalfthevalueofUSmarket,itisnotthatfarbehindintermsofvolume.Morethan2.8millionsemi-autonomousandautonomousvehiclesareestimatedtoberunningonUSroadsin2021.Forthesameyear,Chinaisestimatedtohavemorethan2.2millionunitsofthesametypesofvehicles.Theconsultingcompany,McKinsey,haspredictedthatby2040autonomousvehicleswillcompose40percentofnewvehiclesalesinChina.ChinaalreadyovertookUSastheworld’slargestautomobilemarketin2009anditisnowambitioustogettothetoppositionintheautonomousvehiclemarket.Thecountrycertainlyenjoysfavorableregulationsandpoliciesallowingtestingofself-drivingcarsinmanycities.US,onthecontrary,hasstates'specificregulationswithoutanynationwideauthorizationfortesting.Whenaself-drivingtestvehiclecrossesfromCaliforniaintoNevada,forexample,itmuststopfirsttochangeplatessoitcancontinuethetestinthenewstate.Theregulatoryroadmapthatwillallowself-drivingcarstobedeployedonamassscaleisstillfarfromready.ButChinaalsohasitsownproblem.ProductionofautonomousvehiclesinChinaishighlydependentonchipsdesignedbyforeigncompanies,mostlyUSgroupsNvidia,Qualcomm,andIntel.ChinesechipindustryisontheriseledbycompanieslikeMetaXIntegratedCircuitsandBirenTechnologiestryingtocompetewithwesternproduction.YettheyarestillyearsbehindtheirUSrivals.Sources:Statzon,TheVerge,MIT,WEForum,McKinsey(1),McKinsey(2),UBS,FinancialTimes(1),FinancialTimes(2)32AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023E-MobilityEurope:AnOverviewofEurope’sLatestElectricVehiclesDataEEAGlobalEVOutlook2022recorded6.6millionunitsofEVssoldin2021,doubletheamountfromthepreviousyear,arecordinEVsaleshistory.Almost10%ofallglobalcarsaleswereelectricin2021andEVstake1,4%ofallcarsrunningontheworld’sroads,makingthetotalnumberofEVscloseto16.5millionglobally.China,Europe,andtheUSarethethreemainregionswhereEVsaremoreaccessiblecomparedtootherpartsoftheworld.E-mobilityhasnotyettakenoffindevelopingcountries.Onereasonisthat,untilrecently,EVshavebeensimplytooexpensivecomparedtoICEs.Thishaspresentedasignificantobstacletoadoption,bothforgovernmentsindevelopingcountriesattemptingtoswitchtheirfleetstomoresustainableoptionsandforconsumersconsideringpurchasingpersonalvehicles.Publiclyaccessiblechargersworldwideapproached1.8millionchargingpointsin2021,athirdofthatnumberwerefastchargers.Nearly500000chargerswereinstalledin2021,whichismorethanthetotalnumberofpublicchargersavailablein2017.33AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023EuropeEVsales2021Europehasanambitiousgoaltobecomeaclimate-neutralcontinentby2050.InOctober2022,theCouncilandtheEuropeanParliamentreachedaprovisionalpoliticalagreementaimingata100%carbondioxideemissionreductiontargetfornewcarsandvansby2035.AlthoughthislegislationstillneedstobeapprovedformallytobecomelawintheEU,approvalbytheCouncilandEuropeanParliamentisexpected,withonlyminorchanges.Europehasbeenwitnessingasteadyincreaseinthenumberofnewelectriccarsalesannually,from600in2010toabout1,061,000unitsin2020.In2021,Europeexperiencedanotableboostintheadoptionofelectriccarsandvans,inwhichsalesofelectriccarsreachedalmost1.7millionunits,a50%increasefrom2020.ThisledtoariseinEVsalessharefrom10%to17%injustoneyear.Between2016and2021,EVsalesinEuropegrewat61%peryearonaverage,whichwasthehighestinanyregionintheworld.ThisgrowthrateishigherthanthatofChina,whichhadaCAGRof58%,andtheUS,whichhadaCAGRof32%.Overall,therewereabout5.5millionelectriccarsonEuropeanstreetsin2021,triplingthestockof2019.BEVsaccountedfor55%ofallelectriccarstockwhiletherestwasattributedtoPEVs.Asa34AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023comparison,BEVsareclearlydominatinginChinaandUSwith80%and65%share,respectively,outofthetotalelectriccarstockinthosetwocountries.Non-plug-inhybridstookuparound19%ofthetotalsalesofnewcarsin2021.Thesecarsusebothatraditionalgasolineengineandanelectricdrivesystem,buttheyarepoweredexclusivelybygasoline.Althoughtheyproduceloweremissionscomparedtogas-onlyvehicles,theyarenotincludedinmostreportsaboutelectriccarsorlower-emissioncars.PublicchargingstationsavailabilityMostEVusersusuallyinstallhomeEVchargingstations.However,thenumberofpubliclyavailablechargingstationshasbeenincreasingthroughouttheyearstocopewiththesoaringmarketdemandforelectricvehicles.Europehadover370000publiclyavailablechargingpointsin2021.Thenumberisexpectedtogrowto1.3millionby2025and2.9millionby2025.Slowchargersaccountedforaround300000ofallpubliclyavailablechargerpointsin2021.Theavailabilityofpublicfastchargersisalotless,butthistypeofchargerisbeingrolledoutmuchfaster.35AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023Therewillbecloseto50000unitsoffastchargersin2021,30%morethaninthepreviousyear.Onaverage,theEuropeanUnionoffersfivefastpublicchargersforevery100kmandonepublicchargingpointper7.5EVs.A2014EU-appointedcommissionmandatedaratioof10EVsperpublicchargingpoint(PCP)andmostcountrieswithintheEUalreadyfallunderthatrecommendation.CountriesliketheNetherlands,Spain,Lithuania,andItalyreachedaratioof5EVsorlessperPCP.SwedenandFinlandwillneedtoimprovetheirsituationsincetheystillexceeded10EVsperPCPin2021.WhichcountriesinEuropehavethemostelectriccars?Germanyleadsintermsofnumberswithmorethan1.3millionelectriccarsroamingthecountry'sroadsfortheyear2021.TheUnitedKingdomisinsecondplacewith750000units,followedbyFrance(720000),Norway(630000),theNetherlands(390000),andSweden(300000).Countrieswiththehighestmarketsharefornewelectriccarsalesin2021inEuropeareNorway(86%),Iceland(72%),Sweden(43%),Denmark(35%),Finland(31%),theNetherlands(30%),andGermany(26%)followedbyFrance(19%),Italy(9%)andSpain(8%).BEVsaccountedfor65%ofnewcarsalesinNorwayfor2021.PHEVsalessharewasthehighestinIceland(36%),Sweden(25%),andNorway(22%).TheNetherlands,Germany,andtheUnitedKingdomarethetopthreecountrieswiththehighestpenetrationofpublicchargers,witheachcountryhaving85000,54000,and51000units,respectively,in2021.Italyisinfourthplacewith22000units,followedbyNorwaywithalmost20000unitsofpublicchargersforthesameyear.Intermsoffastcharging,thetopfivecountrieswiththehighestnumberofpublicfastchargingpointsareGermanywith9200units,theUnitedKingdomwith7700units,Norwaywith6200units,Francewith4500units,Spainwith2600units,andtheNetherlandsalsowith2600units.36AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023ElectricbusmarketshareinEuropeTransitioningtoelectricpublictransportisoftenconsideredtheinitialsteptowardsamoreenvironmentallyfriendlytransportationsystem.Despiteanambitiouszero-emissionsgoal,EuropeisstillwaybehindChinawhenitcomestoelectrifyingthepublictransportfleet.Chinaacquired86000newelectricbusesfortheirfleetin2021,makingitatotalofover650000electricbusesinthecountry.AllEuropeanUnioncountriescombinedonlyhadaround9000unitsin2021,basedonareportbyICCT.ButgrowthlookspromisingforEurope.Salesofelectricbusesreached3000inEuropefortheyear2021,a67%increasefromthepreviousyear.AlthoughthesalesshareofelectricbusesinEuropeisstillrelativelysmall,around10%in2021,thiswillchangesoon,withmanyEuropeancountriescommittedtoreaching100%zero-emissionbusfleetsby2035.Somecountriesaredoingbetterthanothersin2021,suchasFinlandwithits50%salesshareofelectricbuses,theNetherlandswith45%,andDenmarkwith35%.SomeothercountriessuchasGreeceandPortugalstillhavebelow2%shareforthesalesofelectricbusesin2021,still,alongwaytogotocomplywiththeCleanVehiclesDirectivethatmandatesatleast41percentofbusacquisitionsmadeby31December2025mustbecleanvehiclesfortheEUcountrymembers.37AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023Europe'sCO2emissionsfromnewpassengercarsPassengercarsareresponsiblefor12%ofCO2releaseinEurope,andtotaldomestictransportmakesup22%ofgreenhousegasemissionsinthecontinent.EUregulationsetsafleet-widetargetof95g/kmfor2020-2024.Thistargetwillgetevenstricterfor2025-2030.TheaverageemissionsfromnewpassengercarsregisteredinEuropeslightlyincreasedin2017-2019,upto122.3g/km,butthenfellto107.5g/kmin2020butpickedupagainin2021toreach114.7g/kmforEU-27+Norway.Thisisstillabovethe95g/kmtargetsetin2020.Onlyseveralcountrieskepttheiremissionsfromnewpassengercarstostaybelowthetarget.In2021,theaverageCO2emissionsfromnewpassengercarsintheNetherlandswere95.1g/km,92,6g/kminDenmark,88.3g/kminSweden,and80.3g/kminIceland.Therapidadoptionofelectriccarsisthemainreasonthesecountrieshavesuchlowemissionslevels.Norwaysetaground-breakingrecordwithanaverageCO2emissionofonly27.6g/km.Thecountry'ssalesshareofelectriccarsis86%fortheyear2021.Alsoin2021,automakersfacedamomentouschange.Thisisthefirstyearmanufacturers’CO2performancewasdeterminedusingtheWLTPinsteadoftheNewEuropeanDrivingCycle(NEDC).TheWorldwideHarmonizedLight-DutyVehiclesTestProcedure,orWLTP,isseenasamoreprecisedepictionofconsumptionandemissionsduringeverydayusage,consideringthespecificvehiclemodel,equipment,andoptions.The2020fleet-widetargetof95g/kmovertheNEDCwasconvertedtomanufacturer-specificWLTPtargetsbasedonmanufacturers’averagevehiclemassandaverageWLTPtoNEDCCO2emissionsratioin2020.Flexiblecompliancemechanisms,suchassuper-creditsandeco-innovationcredits,werealsotranslatedtoWLTPin2021.Basedonthisnewcalculation,theEuropeanEnvironmentalAgencydatashowstheaverageCO2emissionfromnewpassengercarsis115g/km,whichis16g/kmlowerthanthepreviousyear.AccordingtoEUlegislation,manufacturerscanactindividuallyorgrouptogetheraspoolstomeettheirCO2emissiontargets.Allmanufacturerpoolsappearedtohavemettheir2021targetsexceptfortwopools,Mazda-Subaru-Suzuki-ToyotaandRenault-Nissan-Mitsubishi,thatrequiredflexiblecompliancemechanismstodoso.Sources:Statzon,ACEA,EEA,Virta,ICCT38AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023AboutStatzonStatzonisasubscription-basedmarketintelligenceplatformprovidingaccesstoin-depthmarketreportsandinsightsfromhundredsoftrustedsources.WithStatzon,technologycompaniescanmakestrategicbusinessdecisionsbasedonup-to-datemarketinformation.Wehelpyoumakebetterstrategicplansandfasterdecisionswiththeeasiestandfastestaccesstothedeepest,highestquality,andmostup-to-datedata,forecasts,andinsights-immediatelyandcost-efficiently!Statzonplatformgivesyouongoingaccessto+3Mdatasets,marketreports,andcompaniesfrom12,000topics,industries,andtechnologiesglobally.FormoreE-mobilityinsightsvisitstatzon.com
VIP
