中国能源转型展望2021ChinaEnergyTransformationOutlook2021王仲颖ZhongyingWang中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所EnergyResearchInstituteofChineseAcademyofMacroeconomicResearch2021-11-10Outline◼研究背景Researchbackground◼模型方法Modellingmethod◼情景设定Scenarios◼发展展望Developmentoutlook◼发展建议Developmentsuggestions“能源是无可替代的。现代生活完全是架构于能源之上的。能源是与空气、水和土地等同的要素”。2019年的全球人均能源消费Energyconsumptionpercapitain2019能源与现代社会发展关系Therelationshipbetweenenergyanddevelopmentofmodernsociety"Energyisirreplaceableasmodernlifeiscompletelystructuredonthebasisofenergy,anessentialfactorjustasimportantasair,waterandland."TheodoreW.Schultz03单位：千瓦时/Unit:kWh70.772.276.268.556.80%20%40%60%80%100%19781980199020002020一次能源消费结构（%）原煤（Coal）原油（Oil）天然气（Gas）一次电力（H&N）煤炭占比实现大幅下降，但依然占据主导地位：1978年以来中国煤炭占比下降了近14个百分点，但2020年煤炭占比依然超过56.8%，需要主动、创新实施能源系统性变革。化石能源依然占据主导FossilenergystillremainsthedominantsourceofenergyDespiteasignificantdeclineintheshareofcoal,itstillholdsadominantshareintotalprimaryenergyconsumption:Althoughtheshareofcoalhasdecreasedbynearly14percentagepointsinChinasince1978,itstillaccountedforover56.8%asof2020.Itisthereforeimperativethatwetaketheinitiative,ininnovativeways,toreformtheenergysystem.01000002000003000004000005000006000001978198119841987199019931996199920022005200820112014201720201978-2020年一次能源消费总量（104tce）07Totalprimaryenergyconsumption1978-2020(10⁴tce)Totalprimaryenergystructure(%)(Primaryelectricity)化石能源依然占据主导Fossilfuelsstillholdadominantshare082020ChinaEnergyFlowChart(Mtce)主要矛盾：过去是能源总量供给不足与经济社会发展需求的矛盾。现在是能源供给高碳结构制约甚至倒退经济社会发展的矛盾。主要矛盾与矛盾的主要方面的转变MaincontradictionandtransformationofthemaincontradictionMaincontradiction:Inthepast,itwasacontradictionbetweenshortageintotalenergysupplyanddemandforeconomicandsocialdevelopment.Nowitisonestemmingfromthehigh-carbonenergysupplystructure,whichrestrictsorevenreverseseconomicandsocialdevelopment.矛盾的主要方面：过去是保障煤炭供应以满足总量供给不足、现在是大力发展风、光、水等可再生能源电力以优化能源供给结构（能源系统低碳直至零碳）。"Lowcarbonenergydevelopmentisamatterofgreatimportanceforthefutureofmankind.Chinapayshighattentiontolowcarbonenergydevelopmentandaretakingactivemeasurestoadvancetheconsumption,supply,technologyandsystemreform.Chinaiswillingtoworktogetherwiththeinternationalcommunityonstrengtheningall-roundenergycooperation,safeguardingenergysecurity,tacklingclimatechange,protectingtheecologicalenvironment,andpromotingsustainabledevelopmenttobetterservetheneedsofpeopleallovertheworld."“能源低碳发展关乎人类的未来。中国高度重视能源低碳发展，积极推进消费、供给、技术、体制革命。中国愿同国际社会一道，全方位加强能源合作，维护能源安全，应对气候变化，保护生态环境，促进可持续发展，更好造福世界各国人民。”Themainaspectsofcontradiction:Inthepast,itwasonensuringcoalsupplytofillthegapsintotalsupply.Now,itisonvigorouslydevelopingrenewablepower,suchaswind,solarandhydropower,inabidtooptimizetheenergysupplystructure(achievinglowcarbon,evenzerocarbonoftheenergysystem).09四个革命、一个合作：能源消费革命是关键；能源供给革命是基础；能源技术革命是动力；能源体制革命是保障；能源国际合作是趋势。遵循“四个革命、一个合作”总体方针Followtheoverarchingpolicyof“FourRevolutionsandOneCooperation"“Fourrevolutionsandonecooperation”referstoEnergyconsumptionrevolutionasthekey;Energysupplyrevolutionasthefoundation;Energytechnologyrevolutionasthedrivingforce;Energysystemrevolutionastheguarantee;andInternationalenergycooperationasthetrend.10InternationalEnergyCooperationReforminEnergyTechnologyEnergySupplyReformEnergyConsumptionReformEnergySystemReformEnergysupplyanddemandsecurityEnergyenvironmentsecurityEnergyclimatesecurityEnergyeconomysecurity过去15年，中国碳排放强度下降超额完成2020年气候行动目标：全国万元国内生产总值二氧化碳排放水平较2005年下降48.4%；非化石能源在一次能源消费中的占比进一步提升至15.9%。中国在能源低碳转型方面付出巨大努力Chinahasgivengreateffortsonlow-carbonenergytransitionInthepast15years,China’semissionintensityreductionhasfarexceededthe2020targetoftheClimateActionPlanBy2020,theCO2emission/RMB10,000ofGDPdecreasedby48.4%comparedto2005;theshareofnon-fossilfuelintotalprimaryenergyconsumptionfurtherraisedto15.9%052005-2020CO2emissions/GDPdroppedby48.4%2005-2020installedcapacityofPVincreasedby3000times2010-2020energyconsumptionintensitydecreasedby28.7%Shareofnon-fossilfuel15.9%2005-2020installedcapacityofwindpowerincreasedby200timesInstalledcapacityofRE934GWProductionandsalesofnewenergyvehiclesranked1forsixyears水电、风电、光伏装机容量排名世界第一：自《可再生能源法》颁布以来，中国非化石能源实现跨越式发展，水电、风电、光伏装机容量合计突破9.0亿千瓦。非化石能源实现跨越式发展Leapfrogdevelopmentachievedinnon-fossilfuelsChina’stotalinstalledhydropower,windandsolarPVcapacityrankedthefirstintheworld:SincethepromulgationoftheRenewableEnergyLaw,Chinahasachievedleapfrogdevelopmentinnon-fossilfuels,withthecombinedcapacityofinstalledhydropower,windandsolarPVplantssurpassing900GW.06Outline◼研究背景Researchbackground◼模型方法Modellingmethod◼情景设定Scenarios◼发展展望Developmentoutlook◼发展建议Developmentsuggestions中国能源分析模型系统：“中国终端能源需求分析模型”、“中国电力部署优化模型”、“中国经济社会评价模型”。模型方法Introductiontomodellingmethod“Chinaenergyanalysismodelsystem:ERI-DEMAND,ERI-EDO,ERI-CGE.12能源系统分析框架：基于全社会效益最大化准则，实现技术经济评价、能源系统优化、政策措施及经济社会评价、能源外部性分析等。模型方法Introductiontomodelmethodandscenariosetting“Chinaenergyanalysismodelsystem:Basedonthecriterionofmaximizingthebenefitsofthewholesociety,realizetechnicalandeconomicevaluation,energysystemoptimization,policymeasures,economicandsocialevaluation,energyExternalityAnalysis,etc.13Outline◼研究背景Researchbackground◼模型方法Modellingmethod◼情景设定Scenarios◼发展展望Developmentoutlook◼发展建议DevelopmentsuggestionsNDC目标：2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%-45%，非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到15%左右。二氧化碳排放2030年左右达到峰值并争取尽早达峰，单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降60%-65%，非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到20%左右。情景设置介绍IntroductiontomodelmethodandscenariosettingIn2020,thecarbondioxideemissionperunitofGDPwillbe40%-45%lowerthanthatin2005,andtheproportionofnon-fossilfuelinprimaryenergyconsumptionwillreachabout15%.Carbondioxideemissionswillpeakaround2030andstrivetoreachthepeakassoonaspossible.CarbondioxideemissionsperunitofGDPwilldecreaseby60%-65%comparedwith2005,andtheproportionofnon-fossilfuelinprimaryenergyconsumptionwillreachabout20%.15NDC更新目标：二氧化碳排放力争于2030年前达到峰值，努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。到2030年，中国单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放将比2005年下降65%以上，非化石能源消费比重将达到25%左右，风电、太阳能发电总装机容量将达到12亿。千瓦以上。Carbondioxideemissionswillreachthepeakby2030andstrivetoachievecarbonneutralizationby2060.By2030,China'scarbondioxideemissionsperunitofGDPwillbemorethan65%lowerthanthatin2005,theproportionofnonfossilenergyconsumptionwillreachabout25%,andthetotalinstalledcapacityofwindandsolarpowerwillreach1200GW.情景设置：设置“基准情景”和“碳中和情景”二大情景研究未来可能的发展道路，分析其中产生的挑战与机遇。其中碳中和情景中国需要做出更大的努力，实现更优的发展路径。情景设置介绍IntroductionofscenariosettingScenariosetting:SetupBaselineScenario(BLS)andCarbonNeutralityScenario(CNS),studythepossibledevelopmentpathinthefuture,andanalyzethechallengesandopportunities.InCNS,Chinaneedstomakegreatereffortstomakeabetterdevelopmentpathway.BLSAchievingthecommitmenttotheParisAgreementandprospectsforthedevelopmentofenergysystemunderthegoalofBeautifulChina.Retracethe2050targetandexpandto2060CNSOnthebasisoftheParisAgreementandtheconstructionofBeautifulChina,strengthenthegoalofcarbonpeakandcarbonneutral,implementtheenergysystemdevelopmentprospectsundertheestablishedpolicies.Retracethe30-60dualcarbontargets16主要假设：2035年基本实现现代化，2050年建成社会主义现代化强国，实现美丽中国发展。充分考虑风、光各类发电技术成本下降潜力，全面考虑储能、电动汽车发展空间。主要假设介绍IntroductiontomodelmethodandscenarioassumptionsScenarioassumptions:Basicallyrealizingsocialistmodernizationby2035andmakingChinaagreatmodernsocialistcountryby2050.FullyconsideringcostreductionpotentialofallpowergenerationtechnologiesincludingwindandPV,comprehensivelyconsideringthedevelopmentpotentialofenergystorageandEV.17EnergytransformationPowersystemtransformationIndustryelectrificationGreenpowerindustrygrowthEconomictransformationThethreesynchronoustransformationsinagreenandlow-carbondevelopmentpatchIndustrial(end-use)transformationfromfossilfuelstoelectricitySectorsoftheindustryTransformationtoinformation,digitalizationandsmartPowersystemtransformationfromcoaltorenewableenergyDeeptransformationoftheindustryandenergysectorstructurecouldresultinareductionoftotalprimaryenergyconsumptionfrom6500–7500Mtceto47-48Mtcein2060Outline◼研究背景Researchbackground◼模型方法Modellingmethod◼情景设定Scenarios◼发展展望Developmentoutlook◼发展建议Developmentsuggestions一次能源消费总量将于2040年左右达峰，能源效率不断提升中国一次能源消费总量将在2040年左右达到峰值，峰值约在61亿吨标煤，2060年将降至47-48亿吨标煤。单位GDP能源消费强度逐步降至2060年的5.4吨标煤/万元，进入世界前列。碳达峰碳中和情景模拟ScenariosimulationofCarbonNeutralityScenario(CNS)Totalprimaryenergyconsumptionisexpectedtopeakaround2040,whileenergyefficiencycontinuestoimprove:China'stotalprimaryenergyconsumptionisexpectedtopeakaround2040,ataround6100Mtce,andtodropto4700-4800Mcein2060.In2060,energyconsumptionperunitofGDPgraduallydecreasesto5.4tce/RMB10,000,makingChinaoneofthegloballeadingcountryinthisregard.19450055006500202020252030203520402045205020552060MtceTotalprimaryenergyconsumptionBLSCNS02040202020252030203520402045205020552060tce/RMB10,000EnergyintensityBLSCNS能源消费结构持续改善，可再生能源发展成为主体能源2035年非化石能源发展比重将达到31.9-34%，到2060年非化石能源比重将进一步增加到91.2-96.8%，可再生能源成为中国主导能源。Astheenergyconsumptionstructurecontinuouslyimproves,renewableenergybecomesadominantsourceofenergysupply:Withtheshareofnon-fossilfuelsprojectedtoreach31.9-34%in2035andtofurtherincreaseto91.2-96.8%in2060,renewableenergywillbecomeadominantsourceofenergysupplyinChina.20碳达峰碳中和情景模拟ScenariosimulationofCNS0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20202030204020502060BLS0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20202030204020502060CNS化石能源消费将逐步达峰：煤炭、石油和天然气消费将先后达峰，风、光等非化石能源将逐步从能源增量主体，进入存量化石能源替代，最终成为主力能源。Fossilfuelconsumptionwillreachthepeak：Theenergyconsumptionofthecoal,oilandgaswillreachthepeakonebyone,whilenon-fossilfuelsincludingwindandsolarenergywillgraduallytransferfromdominatingincrementalenergyconsumptiontoreplacingfossilfuelinexistingenergyconsumption,andultimatelybecomesthemainenergysource.21碳达峰碳中和情景模拟ScenariosimulationofCNS01020304050202020252030203520402045205020552060MtceCoalconsumptionBLSCNS02468202020252030203520402045205020552060MtceOilconsumptionBLSCNS02000400060008000202020252030203520402045205020552060MtceNaturalgasconsumptionBLSCNS终端部门能源消费在2030年达到峰值终端部门能源消费将在2030年左右达到峰值，2060年终端部门能源消费将分别降至26.5-21.8亿吨标煤。其中工业和建筑行业二氧化碳排放2025年左右达峰，交通运输行业二氧化碳排放2030年左右达到峰值。Energyconsumptionintheend-usesectorsisexpectedtopeakin2030：China’senergyconsumptionintheend-usesectorsisexpectedtopeakaround2030,andtodropto2650-2180Mtcein2060.WhiletheindustryandconstructionsectoristopeaktheCO2emissionsaround2025,thetransportsectoristopeaktheCO2emissionsaround2030.22碳达峰碳中和情景模拟ScenariosimulationofCNS2060ChinaEnergyFlowChart(Mtce)终端电气化水平大幅提高：2060年电气化水平将达到54%-74%（含电制氢为67.7%-97.5%）；电气化将带动电力需求持续增长，全社会用电量将分别突破14.6-17.3万亿千瓦时。Theelectrificationratewillsignificantlyrisesintheend-usesectors:Theelectrificationratewillreach54%-74%(67.7%-97.5%withhydrogenproduction)in2060;Electrificationwilldrivethecontinuousgrowthofpowerdemand,andthepowerconsumptionofthewholesocietywillexceed14,600-17,300TWh.23碳达峰碳中和情景模拟ScenariosimulationofCNS0%20%40%60%80%100%202020252030203520402045205020552060ElectrificationRateBLSCNS0200040006000800010000202020252030203520402045205020552060GwInstalledrenewablepowercapacityBLSCNS040008000120001600020000202020252030203520402045205020552060TWhRenewableelectricitygenerationBLSCNS风电和光伏将成为绝对主力能源：2035年风电装机将达到9.9-10.3亿千瓦，光伏装机突破14.0-17.5亿千瓦。2060年风电装机将达到25.0-33.0亿千瓦，光伏装机突破30.7-38.5亿千瓦。WindpowerandsolarPVwillbecomethedominantenergysource:By2035,totalinstalledwindpowercapacitytoreach990-1030GWandsolarPVtoreach1400-1750GW.By2060,totalinstalledwindpowercapacitytoreach2500-3300GWandsolarPVtoreach3070-3850GW.24碳达峰碳中和情景模拟ScenariosimulationofCNS02000400060008000202020252030203520402045205020552060BLSCoalNaturalgasNuclearHydroWindSolarBiomassOthers02000400060008000202020252030203520402045205020552060CNSCoalNaturalgasNuclearHydroWindSolarBiomassOthers不同时空特性的灵活性资源保障电力系统安全、可靠运行：“十四五”、“十五五”煤电和抽蓄仍将是主要调节资源，多时间尺度各类储能和电制X将在远期成为电力系统主力调节资源。Flexibleresourceswithdifferenttemporalandspatialcharacteristicsensuresafeandreliableoperationsofthepowersystem:Duringthe14thandthe15thFYPperiods,coalpowerandpumpedstoragestillremainthemainregulationresources.Energystorageandpower-to-xtechnologiesatmulti-timescalesareexpectedtobethemainregulationresourcesofthepowersysteminthelongrun.25050010001500Day1Day2Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Powergeneration(GWh)CoalNaturalgasNuclearHydroBiomassGeothermalOceanenergyWindSolarStoragedischargeV2GdischargeTotal05001000150020002500Day1Day2Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Powergeneration(GWh)CoalNaturalgasNuclearHydroBiomassGeothermalOceanenergyWindSolarStoragedischargeV2GdischargeTotal05001000150020002500300035004000Day1Day2Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Powergeneration(GWh)CoalNaturalgasNuclearHydroBiomassGeothermalOceanenergyWindSolarStoragedischargeV2GdischargeTotalHourlypowerbalanceinChina’spowersystemfor2025summerintheCNSHourlypowerbalanceinChina’spowersystemfor2035summerintheCNSHourlypowerbalanceinChina’spowersystemfor2060summerintheCNS碳达峰碳中和情景模拟ScenariosimulationofCNS26碳达峰碳中和情景模拟ScenariosimulationofCNSElectrochemicalenergystorage,demandsideresponsePumpedstorage,CAES,PtXPowertoX,seasonalheatstorage300.500millionEVV2G周、月调节Weekly,monthlyregulation季节调节Seasonalregulation日、小时调节Daily,hourlyregulation各类储能规模超过20亿千瓦，需求响应超过2.6亿千瓦。Totalenergystoragecapacityexceeds2000GW,demandsideresponsecapacityexceeds2600GW.206005001000150020002500300035004000Day1Day2Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Powergeneration(GWh)CoalNaturalgasNuclearHydroBiomassGeothermalOceanenergyWindSolarStoragedischargeV2GdischargeTotal能源相关碳排放量将在2030年前达峰，碳中和情景能源系统在2055年后实现近零碳排放:基准情景中，能源相关碳排放量在2060年实现净零排放，经济社会系统将于2070年左右实现碳中和；在碳中和情景中，我国能源相关碳排放将在2055年后实现中和，有力地保证经济社会系统在2060年前实现碳中和。carbonemissionofenergysectorisexpectedtopeakbefore2030;intheCNS,theenergysectorwillachievenearly-zerocarbonemissionaround2055:IntheBLS,China’senergy-relatedcarbonemissionisexpectedtoachievenet-zeroemissionin2060,andtheeconomicandsocialsystemistoachievecarbonneutralityaround2070;intheCNS,however,China'senergy-relatedcarbonemissionsisexpectedtoachievecarbonneutralityafter2055,whichprovidesfirmandconcretesupportfortheeconomicandsocialsystemtogocarbonneutralbefore2060.碳达峰碳中和情景模拟ScenariosimulationofCNS020004000600080001000012000202020252030203520402045205020552060MtTotalCO2emissionsBLSCNSOutline◼研究背景Researchbackground◼模型方法Modellingmethod◼情景设定Scenarios◼发展展望Developmentoutlook◼发展建议Developmentsuggestions发展可再生能源是保障生态安全和资源安全的共同道路Renewableenergydevelopmentisacommonwaytoguaranteeecologicalsecurityandresourcesecurity⚫模块化Modularized⚫分布式Distributed⚫自下而上Bottom-up⚫开放Open⚫以消费者为中心Consumer-centered.⚫大系统largesystem⚫集中式Centralized⚫自上而下Top-down⚫封闭Closed⚫以供应方为中心Supplier-centered.In2060Thetotalprimaryenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoreach4700-4800MtceTotalFinalEnergyConsumption2650-2180Mtce67.7-97.5%ElectrificationrateWindpowercapacity2500-3380GWSolarPVcapacity3070-3850GWShareofrenewablepower92.5-95.5%Primaryenergyconsumption4700-4800Mtce能源系统性变革EnergysectorsystemicreformTotalpowerconsumption14,600-17300TWh新时代发展建议Developmentsuggestionsforthenewera30（一）以绿色电力的大规模开发和使用助推能源供给侧结构性改革，形成构建现代能源体系的新突破(I)Takeadvantageoflarge-scaledevelopmentanduseofgreenpowertoboosttheenergysupply-sidestructuralreform,andtofosternewbreakthroughsinbuildingamodernizedenergysystem.（二）以能源行业信息化、数字化和智能化为加速器，开拓能源系统现代化转型的新局面（三）以终端用能用电需求引导能源生产持续优化，确保碳达峰碳中和目标的实现(II)Takeadvantageoftheinformatization,digitizationandintellectualization–consideredasaccelerators–oftheenergyindustrytoopenupanewprospectformodernizationandtransformationoftheenergysystem.(III)Continuouslyoptimizeenergyproductionwiththeguidanceofend-usepowerdemands,toensurethecarbonneutralitygoalisachieved.ImplementingUnitFinancialSupportTechnicalSupportThankyouforwatching.实现能源系统近零排放－－人与自然的和谐Toachieveharmonybetweenmanandnature