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REIMAGINING A NET ZERO NORTH SEA | An Integrated Energy Vision for 2050 1

REIMAGINING

A NET ZERO

NORTH SEA

AN INTEGRATED

ENERGY VISION

FOR 2050

CONTENTS

Forewords 3

Executive Summary 7

Reimagining the UK’s Energy Sector 10

The Power of an Integrated Plan 12

Emerging, Progressive, Transformational 14

At a Glance 16

In Depth 18

Jobs and Economy 26

Enabling Aordability 28

Technology for 2050 30

A Massive Opportunity for the UK 32

Methodology 34

Acknowledgements 36

INVESTING NOW FOR

2050 – AND BEYOND

The UK oshore energy sector has reached a pivotal

moment, a watershed in our industrial history. We are at

a threshold when the experience and expertise forged

over the last 50 years must be used in partnership with

transformational low-carbon technologies to meet the

challenges – and grasp the opportunities – presented by

the UK’s commitment to net zero.

A reimagined North Sea, an integrated net zero

energy system, can lead this global drive to deliver the

commitments of the Paris Agreement. Up to £416bn

investment is required over the next 30 years, but this

creates a fantastic business opportunity that by 2050 could

potentially contribute £125bn per year to the UK economy,

while supporting more than 230,000 jobs.

Delivery of a transformation of this magnitude, building

on the skills and capabilities already present across the UK

energy sector, will not only help deliver the net zero goal

but reinvent our nation for a sustainable future – creating

a sector with technology, skills, services and an innovative

ecosystem which will be a global leader and exporter in the

net zero economy.

There are challenges to delivering this integrated energy

vision. This report outlines three possible scenarios. They

are not deﬁnitive, however they clearly show the size of the

potential prize and, importantly, the risks of inaction: the

potential loss of jobs; the loss of transferable skills, and the

loss of our competitive position globally.

This is a time for action, for a clear strategy and for cross-

sector collaboration. We are pleased to present this report

from the Net Zero Technology Centre and ORE Catapult

which, in addition to our own analysis, has benefited from

significant input from a range of cross-sector energy

organisations.

We hope this report will be a catalyst for action and

stimulates urgent investment to make sure that we, as a

nation, seize the opportunity to lead the world with the

development of technologies for a net zero energy future.

Professor

Dame Anne Glover CBE

Non-Executive Director

ORE Catapult

Martin Gilbert

Chair

Net Zero Technology Centre

A SHARED VISION FOR THE

UK’S ENERGY INDUSTRIES

The innovation required to deliver an aordable

net zero energy future is a transformational

opportunity for the oshore oil and gas and

renewable energy sectors. Now is the time

to focus on the synergies between these two

sectors to reimagine the North Sea.

We are excited that our organisations are at the

heart of this change, alongside industry, government

and academia. The potential for investment in clean

technology to drive green economic growth, high value

jobs and global export opportunities is equally exciting.

The creation of an integrated net zero oshore energy

system requires hundreds of billions of pounds of

investment, but can generate trillions in value. It can

deliver aordable energy for homes and businesses in

communities across the country, as well as maximising

opportunities for export of services, electricity and

hydrogen, whilst minimising reliance on imports.

It can capitalise on our combined skills, expertise and

capabilities, generating substantial economic value while

fulﬁlling our net zero ambitions. This report identiﬁes

major innovation opportunities, but also the impact of

failing to act.

The North Sea energy industries can be world-beating in

this net zero economy, with a diversiﬁed supply chain that

meets UK energy demand while simultaneously providing

next-generation technologies here in the UK and in

markets around the world.

Early investment is crucial to sustain and create jobs,

secure technology leadership, drive down emissions and

capitalise on export opportunities.

FAILURE TO ACT

NOW WILL RESULT

IN SIGNIFICANT

JOB LOSSES OVER

THE NEXT DECADE

AND SERIOUSLY

UNDERMINE OUR

COMPETITIVENESS

This UK is, and can continue to be a global energy leader.

1. THE COUNTRY CAN BE A SUPPLIER OF ENERGY,

RATHER THAN A BUYER

2. WITH INVESTMENT NOW, THE UK CAN BE A

WORLD LEADER IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND

EXPORT OF NET ZERO ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES

3. WE CAN RETAIN OUR COMPETITIVE POSITION

IN ENERGY SKILLS, CAPABILITY AND JOBS

The four nations of the United Kingdom must deliver

as much of our energy demand as possible from our

indigenous resources, not just in the North Sea but across

the UK. With appropriate investment at pace, we can

leverage and capitalise upon our existing capabilities

to be the supplier of next generation, net zero energy

technologies. This will ensure that we create new jobs and

a vibrant, competitive supply chain delivering innovative

solutions at home and internationally.

This report outlines three potential scenarios to deliver

this opportunity, to reimagine the North Sea and build on

our strong energy foundations. Each scenario requires

clear intent, supportive policies, investment at pace and

strong alignment to unlock our vast potential over the

next 30 years and beyond.

Each scenario, however, is vastly dierent and varies

not only in energy mix, but also in the level of social and

economic impact.

WHAT THESE SCENARIOS MAKE CLEAR HOWEVER,

IS THAT WE MUST ACT AND INVEST NOW

OTHERWISE THE OPPORTUNITY TO REALISE

ANY OF THESE BENEFITS COULD BE LOST

The Net Zero Technology Centre and ORE Catapult are

excited to share this vision for the future; to outline our

ambition to work in collaboration with industry,

government and academia to deliver innovative

technologies to drive down costs for the consumer. Let’s

seize the moment.

EARLY

INVESTMENT

IS CRUCIAL

TO SUSTAIN

AND CREATE

JOBS, SECURE

TECHNOLOGY

LEADERSHIP,

DRIVE DOWN

EMISSIONS

AND CAPITALISE

ON EXPORT

Colette Cohen OBE

CEO

Net Zero Technology Centre

Andrew Jamieson

Chief Executive

ORE Catapult

/20

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REIMAGININGANETZERONORTHSEAAnIntegratedEnergyVisionfor20501REIMAGININGANETZERONORTHSEAANINTEGRATEDENERGYVISIONFOR20503CONTENTSForewords3ExecutiveSummary7ReimaginingtheUK’sEnergySector10ThePowerofanIntegratedPlan12Emerging,Progressive,Transformational14AtaGlance16InDepth18JobsandEconomy26EnablingAffordability28Technologyfor205030AMassiveOpportunityfortheUK32Methodology34Acknowledgements36INVESTINGNOWFOR2050–ANDBEYONDTheUKoffshoreenergysectorhasreachedapivotalmoment,awatershedinourindustrialhistory.Weareatathresholdwhentheexperienceandexpertiseforgedoverthelast50yearsmustbeusedinpartnershipwithtransformationallow-carbontechnologiestomeetthechallenges–andgrasptheopportunities–presentedbytheUK’scommitmenttonetzero.AreimaginedNorthSea,anintegratednetzeroenergysystem,canleadthisglobaldrivetodeliverthecommitmentsoftheParisAgreement.Upto£416bninvestmentisrequiredoverthenext30years,butthiscreatesafantasticbusinessopportunitythatby2050couldpotentiallycontribute£125bnperyeartotheUKeconomy,whilesupportingmorethan230,000jobs.Deliveryofatransformationofthismagnitude,buildingontheskillsandcapabilitiesalreadypresentacrosstheUKenergysector,willnotonlyhelpdeliverthenetzerogoalbutreinventournationforasustainablefuture–creatingasectorwithtechnology,skills,servicesandaninnovativeecosystemwhichwillbeagloballeaderandexporterinthenetzeroeconomy.Therearechallengestodeliveringthisintegratedenergyvision.Thisreportoutlinesthreepossiblescenarios.Theyarenotdefinitive,howevertheyclearlyshowthesizeofthepotentialprizeand,importantly,therisksofinaction:thepotentiallossofjobs;thelossoftransferableskills,andthelossofourcompetitivepositionglobally.Thisisatimeforaction,foraclearstrategyandforcross-sectorcollaboration.WearepleasedtopresentthisreportfromtheNetZeroTechnologyCentreandORECatapultwhich,inadditiontoourownanalysis,hasbenefitedfromsignificantinputfromarangeofcross-sectorenergyorganisations.Wehopethisreportwillbeacatalystforactionandstimulatesurgentinvestmenttomakesurethatwe,asanation,seizetheopportunitytoleadtheworldwiththedevelopmentoftechnologiesforanetzeroenergyfuture.ProfessorDameAnneGloverCBENon-ExecutiveDirectorORECatapultMartinGilbertChairNetZeroTechnologyCentre54ASHAREDVISIONFORTHEUK’SENERGYINDUSTRIESTheinnovationrequiredtodeliveranaffordablenetzeroenergyfutureisatransformationalopportunityfortheoffshoreoilandgasandrenewableenergysectors.NowisthetimetofocusonthesynergiesbetweenthesetwosectorstoreimaginetheNorthSea.Weareexcitedthatourorganisationsareattheheartofthischange,alongsideindustry,governmentandacademia.Thepotentialforinvestmentincleantechnologytodrivegreeneconomicgrowth,highvaluejobsandglobalexportopportunitiesisequallyexciting.Thecreationofanintegratednetzerooffshoreenergysystemrequireshundredsofbillionsofpoundsofinvestment,butcangeneratetrillionsinvalue.Itcandeliveraffordableenergyforhomesandbusinessesincommunitiesacrossthecountry,aswellasmaximisingopportunitiesforexportofservices,electricityandhydrogen,whilstminimisingrelianceonimports.Itcancapitaliseonourcombinedskills,expertiseandcapabilities,generatingsubstantialeconomicvaluewhilefulfillingournetzeroambitions.Thisreportidentifiesmajorinnovationopportunities,butalsotheimpactoffailingtoact.TheNorthSeaenergyindustriescanbeworld-beatinginthisnetzeroeconomy,withadiversifiedsupplychainthatmeetsUKenergydemandwhilesimultaneouslyprovidingnext-generationtechnologieshereintheUKandinmarketsaroundtheworld.Earlyinvestmentiscrucialtosustainandcreatejobs,securetechnologyleadership,drivedownemissionsandcapitaliseonexportopportunities.FAILURETOACTNOWWILLRESULTINSIGNIFICANTJOBLOSSESOVERTHENEXTDECADEANDSERIOUSLYUNDERMINEOURCOMPETITIVENESSThisUKis,andcancontinuetobeaglobalenergyleader.1.THECOUNTRYCANBEASUPPLIEROFENERGY,RATHERTHANABUYER2.WITHINVESTMENTNOW,THEUKCANBEAWORLDLEADERINTHEDEVELOPMENTANDEXPORTOFNETZEROENERGYTECHNOLOGIES3.WECANRETAINOURCOMPETITIVEPOSITIONINENERGYSKILLS,CAPABILITYANDJOBSThefournationsoftheUnitedKingdommustdeliverasmuchofourenergydemandaspossiblefromourindigenousresources,notjustintheNorthSeabutacrosstheUK.Withappropriateinvestmentatpace,wecanleverageandcapitaliseuponourexistingcapabilitiestobethesupplierofnextgeneration,netzeroenergytechnologies.Thiswillensurethatwecreatenewjobsandavibrant,competitivesupplychaindeliveringinnovativesolutionsathomeandinternationally.Thisreportoutlinesthreepotentialscenariostodeliverthisopportunity,toreimaginetheNorthSeaandbuildonourstrongenergyfoundations.Eachscenariorequiresclearintent,supportivepolicies,investmentatpaceandstrongalignmenttounlockourvastpotentialoverthenext30yearsandbeyond.Eachscenario,however,isvastlydifferentandvariesnotonlyinenergymix,butalsointhelevelofsocialandeconomicimpact.WHATTHESESCENARIOSMAKECLEARHOWEVER,ISTHATWEMUSTACTANDINVESTNOWOTHERWISETHEOPPORTUNITYTOREALISEANYOFTHESEBENEFITSCOULDBELOSTTheNetZeroTechnologyCentreandORECatapultareexcitedtosharethisvisionforthefuture;tooutlineourambitiontoworkincollaborationwithindustry,governmentandacademiatodeliverinnovativetechnologiestodrivedowncostsfortheconsumer.Let’sseizethemoment.EARLYINVESTMENTISCRUCIALTOSUSTAINANDCREATEJOBS,SECURETECHNOLOGYLEADERSHIP,DRIVEDOWNEMISSIONSANDCAPITALISEONEXPORTColetteCohenOBECEONetZeroTechnologyCentreAndrewJamiesonChiefExecutiveORECatapult7REIMAGININGANETZERONORTHSEAAnIntegratedEnergyVisionfor20506NETZERONORTHSEA:ANINTEGRATEDENERGYVISIONFOR2050TheUKoffshoreenergysectorfacesafundamentalchallenge:howbesttobuildonthehard-wontechnologicaladvancesofthelast50yearstomeethead-ontheimperativeofreachingnetzeroby2050.Widespreadchangeisbeingdictatedbyclimatescienceanddemandedbysociety.TheUK’soffshorewindindustryisalreadyattheheartoftheglobaldrivetowardsnetzeroandouroilandgasindustry,asafurthercrucialelementofthenationaleconomy,standsreadytoactaspartofapositiveandsustainableresponse.Contributionswillcomefromeverypartoftheoffshoreenergysystem.Theoilandgassectorhasatrackrecordofdeliveryinoneoftheworld’sharshestmarineenvironments,ahistoryoftechnologicalinnovation,andisaneconomicandjobspowerhouse.Hydrocarbonproductionwillcontinuefordecades–thisisessentialinprovidingasafe,secureenergysupplytopowerindustry,heathomesandenabletravel–howevercarbonemissionsmustbeeliminated.Theoilandgassectorstandsreadytoactinpartnershipwithallothersectorsoftheenergyindustry.Theoffshorewindsectorhasproventobeoneofthestand-outindustrialsuccessesofrecentyears,withtheUKleadingtheworldinthedeploymentoffixed-bottomoffshorewind,pioneeringfloatingwindanddrivingcostsdownfurtherandfasterthananyonethoughtpossiblejustafewyearsago.Willingpartnersandenergyinnovators–withtheirinherentvisionandinvention–areequallyasimportantandincludeblueandgreenhydrogen,carboncaptureandstorage(CCS)andmarinerenewables,alongwithearlier-stagetechnologies.Thesizeofthechallengeaheadissurpassedonlybytheopportunitiesthatwillcomewithsuccess.Therewardsofreachingorexceedingnetzeroby2050willextendtoencompassUKmanufacturing,long-termjobcreation,energysecurity,investmentandinnovation.Benefitswillalsorippleoutwardtoencompassaglobaladvantageandleadershippositioninnewinternationalmarkets.THESIZEOFTHECHALLENGEISSURPASSEDONLYBYTHEPOTENTIALREWARDSOFSUCCESSConceptshownisillustrativeSource:WoodMackenzie,LuxResearchIndustrialClusterPetrochemicalclusterHydrogenpowerplantDomesticsupplyFPSOPowerplantwithCO2storageHydrogenproductionwithCO2captureEnergystorageSmallpoolsreusableproductionsystemplatformCO2injectionfacilityWindwithbuiltinelectrolysers(greenhydrogen)WindpoweringhydrogenproductionfacilityExportinterconnectorEnergyhubsubstationsCO2injectionfacilityPOWERCABLEOIL/GASPIPELINEHYDROGENPIPELINECO2PIPELINECO2directaircaptureCO2utilisationElectrolyserplant(greenhydrogen)OffshoreoperationscontrolcenterRepurposedpipelineCO2transportHydrogentransportGreenhydrogenproductionfacilityEnergystorageSubseadevelopmentSubseafactorySurfaceproductionsystemFloatingwind9THEBENEFITSAwiderangeofindustries,extendingbeyondtraditionalsilosandtowardsabroader,moreintegratedoffshoreenergysector,arereadytotakepart.Smallandmediumsizedenterprisesarepoisedtocontribute,researchanddevelopmentwillberampedup,andportsandcommunitiesaroundtheUKwillbenefitfrominvestmentandemployment.Excellenceacrossengineering,design,manufactureandinstallationprovidesafoundationforthenecessarychange.Technologydevelopmentandinnovationarecriticaltodeliveringaffordablesolutionsforboththerealisationofthenetzerogoalandtheincreasedvalueassociatedwithnecessarycostreductions.Rewardsforsuccessarehuge:asmanyas232,000directandindirectjobs,totaleconomicimpactofupto£125bnperyearandpotentialcumulativeinvestmentof£416bnby2050,dependingontheexactpathchosen.Inaction,bycontrast,risksadownturninoffshoreenergysectoremploymentbetweennowand2035,duetopotentiallossofemploymentinoilandgasandslowprogressinoffshorerenewables.Withoutacceleratingactionandinvestment,theUKwillnotonlyexperiencenetjoblosses,butalsoalossofgloballeadershipintheemergingnetzeroenergyarenaandfailuretomeetitsnetzerotargets.Itisimportanttonotethatourscenariosarefocusedondomesticmarkets.However,newmarketsrepresentsubstantialaddedopportunities–particularlytostrengthengrowthinapost-Brexiteconomy.Examplesincludetheexportofgreenhydrogentomeetananticipatedsurgeinglobaldemand,electricityinterconnectionoutsidetheUK,andcarbonsequestrationforEuropeanneighbours.ThesearetremendousopportunitiesfortheUK,butifweareslowtoact,wecouldlosethousandsofjobs,billionsofpoundsofinwardinvestmentandvastexportopportunities.Therearealreadymanyoverseaschallengers,vyingtosecureleadershipinenergytransitionsolutions.Itiscriticalthatweaccelerateprogress–dramatically–toembracetheseopportunitiesandretainourpositionasagloballeaderinenergy.NEXTSTEPSThisreportisdesignedtosparkaction.Theopportunitiesthatcomewithrespondingtothenetzerochallengewillrequiredecisionsintheimmediatetermonprogressivepolicies,aswellasoninvestmentandfundingstreams.Achievingthe2050target,andtappingintothehugeeconomicbenefitsthatsuccesscancreate,willnecessitateremovalofbarriers,newtechnologicalinnovation,andtheformationofnewpartnershipsandalliances.Thethreescenariosinthisreportaredesignedtoprovideaclearframeworktoinformalloftheabove,toofferanoutlineofwhatisbothpossibleandrequired,andtoclearlyillustratethepotentialopportunitywiththerightlevelofbothpublicandprivatesectorengagement.TheoffshoreenergysectorsareseekingcloseragreementandunderstandingwithregulatorsandgovernmentsatboththeUKanddevolvedlevel,establishingclearerandwherepossiblefundedforwardpathsthatwillallowinnovatorsandthesupplychaintograsptheopportunitiespresentedbymeetingthechallengeofnetzero.CoordinatedactionwillfurtherensuretheUKkeepspacewithglobalcompetitorswhileprotectinghard-wonjobsandexpertise.AreimaginedNorthSeaawaits.THEREISNOCHOICEBUTTOACTNOWTHEVISIONThisreportoutlinesthreescenariosdesignedtocreateazerocarbonNorthSeaenergyindustry–Emerging,ProgressiveandTransformational.Eachrepresentsonepotentialpathto2050,albeitwithvaryingdegreesofassociatedbenefit.Theyshouldnot,however,bereadastheonlyoptionsavailable;thereisspacetooperateflexiblyacrossscenarios-nothingcanberuledout.Theydohoweverprovideaguidingvision,atemplatethatwillbenefitindustry,stakeholdersandgovernmentastheypreparetocommittoaclearandactionablestrategy,anddeliveramoreintegratedenergymixdrivenbyconsumerdemand.Theendgoalofnetzerowillleadtheway,withflexibilityandcommitmentworkinghandinhandwithtechnologyinnovation.However,theeconomicandsocialimpactsmustbeweighedalongsidetheenvironmental,anddueemphasisgiventoeconomicrecoveryandfuturenationalprosperity.Theoffshoreenergysectoralreadypossessesmanyofthetechnologiesrequired,albeitatvaryingscalesofmaturity,cost-effectivenessandscale.Thereisahugeopportunitytobeinnovativeacrosstheemergingenergysolutions,frombothfixedandfloatingoffshorewind,carboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS)andblueandgreenhydrogen,whilealsodeliveringimprovedefficiencyandcarbonfootprintreductioninexistingoilandgasoperations.Storage,interconnectionandnetworkswillmultiplytheadvantages,whileonshoreinitiativesandtheongoingdevelopmentofmarinerenewableswillalsocomplementwiderambitions.Understandingtheongoingroleofhydrocarbonsisalsoessential.Theoffshoreenergyindustryisbuildingthisstrategyfor2050basedonacompletepictureoftheUKemissionsfootprint,usinganalysisfromtheUKCommitteeonClimateChange(CCC).Itincludesafullynetzerocontributionfromdomesticgasand/oroilratherthanrelianceonimports.CREATINGAZEROCARBONNORTHSEAENERGYINDUSTRY1110REIMAGININGTHEUK’SENERGYSECTOREconomy£125bnUpto£125bnperyearintotaleconomicactivityintheUKenergyoffshoresectorby2050,dependingonthepathselectedAnintegratedenergyvisionfortheUKNorthSeawillenableinvestmentbyoperators,developersandthesupplychainininfrastructureandcriticaltechnologies,whilesimultaneouslyallowingregionsandeducatorstoplanfortheskillsoftomorrow.Therightactions,adoptednow,willnotonlyestablishawell-markedpathtowardsnetzero,itwillopenthedoortotheopportunitiesofareimaginedNorthSeaandthefullrangeofbenefitsfromapositive,justtransformation.Jobs232,000232,000offshoreenergyjobsarepossibleby2050,upfrom140,000directandindirecttoday;theseverityofthepredictedemploymentdownturnthisdecadecanbeconsiderablyreducedReducedcostsInnovationcandriveincreasedaffordabilityacrossanumberoftechnologiesandultimatelyreducethecostofenergytoconsumersinthenetzeroworldOffshorewindCommitmenttosignificantexpansionoffloatingandfixedoffshorewind,combinedwithanticipatedcostsavings,willboostenergysecurity,reducedependenceonimportedenergyandincreasedproductionofgreenhydrogenTechnologyCritically,areimaginedNorthSeawilldriveblueandgreenhydrogenproductionatscaleandcreateasignificantroleformarinerenewables,whiledrivingimprovementstostorage,networksandinterconnectionContinuityUKhydrocarbonswillcontinuetofulfilnecessaryUKenergydemandthroughnetzerodomesticproduction,reducingrelianceonimportsandreducingemissionsthroughtechnologiessuchaselectrificationCarboncaptureCost-effective,widespreaddeploymentofcarboncaptureandstoragewillenablethebroadestrangeoftechnologiesandindustriestocontributetothezero-emissionsvisionExportsTheopportunitiesofnetzerowillmultiplybeyondUKborders:greenhydrogenasacommodity,carbonsequestrationasaservice,thetransferofhard-wonskillsandexpertisetonewmarkets2050:OFFSHOREWINDTechnologicaladvances,particularlyinfloatingwind,areexpectedtodrivedowncosts,increaseefficienciesandincreasetheareasavailableforpotentialdevelopmentallaroundourcoastline.Deploymentofbetween60GWand150GWby2050–tobothsupplyelectricityfordomesticconsumptionandexport,andpowergreenhydrogenproduction–iscentraltothenetzeroNorthSea,dependingonthepathchosen,butbenefitscouldpotentiallyextendfurther.Thesectorcangenerateupto£1trillionineconomicimpactacrosstheUKoverthenext30years,whileaccelerateddeploymentfrom2026toreachanambitioustargetof49GWby2030–aboveandbeyondwhatiscurrentlymappedandincludingsignificantexpansionoffloatingwind–couldpotentiallyoffsetanticipatedjoblossesintheoilandgassector.2050:OIL&GASInvestmentcanacceleratedecarbonisationofoilandgasproductionwhileincreasingoperationalefficiencyacrosswhatwillremaina£15bnsectorthrough2050(measuredintermsofUKemploymentandproductiontomeetdomesticdemand).Electrificationandintegrationwithrenewableswillbecritical,coupledwithtechnologiesthatwilldelivernetzeroproductionemissionsfromthesector.TheUKistransitioningtobecomereliantonrenewableenergysourcesratherthanhydrocarbons,howeveroilandgasisstillrequiredandworld-leadingskillsandinnovativeorganisationscanservicethisindustryinitsmissiontodecarbonise.2050:HYDROGENHydrogenoffersasubstantialeconomicopportunityfortheUKbasedonabundantrenewableenergy,supplychainexpertiseandhugeexportmarketpotential,withEurope’shydrogenmarketanticipatedtogrowto£105bnby2050.Bluehydrogencanbecomeacriticalintermediatesolutionaswetransitiontonetzero.Itwillbeanimportantbridgetogreenhydrogenandathalfthecost,willhelpbuildahydrogeneconomyandcreatedemand.Withoutthis,harnessingthefullpotentialofgreenhydrogencouldbeatrisk.Actionandinvestmentingreenhydrogenisrequirednowaspartofalong-termstrategy.Wemustdevelopthebestmostaffordablesolutionsinareasincludingelectrolysercatalysts,saltwaterelectrolysisandcombinedrenewables/productionfacilities.Bydoingso,wecanreplicate,forgreenhydrogen,thesuccesscreatedinreducingthecostofoffshorewind.2050:CARBONCAPTURE&STORAGE(CCS)WidespreaddeploymentofCCSwilldecarboniseoilandgasandbluehydrogenandenablethedevelopmentofanetzeroNorthSea.Thesegmentisacrucialcomponentinfuturedomestichydrocarbongeneration,asacarbonsinkforindustrialdecarbonisation,andwillopenthedoortotheUKbecomingbothaworldleaderinthesectorandakeyEuropeanlocationforsequestration.Earlyadoptionwilldovetailwithdemandforbluehydrogenintheneartermandsetthestageforlarge-scaleproductionofgreenhydrogeninthemediumterm.THEPOWEROFANINTEGRATEDPLANOurintegratedenergyvisionisbuiltonfourmainpillars–offshorewind,oilandgas,hydrogenandCCS–allinterdependentandinteractingtoachievethemid-centurygoal.Thisisnottoignoresectorssuchasmarinerenewables,complementaryonshoretechnologiesincludingwindandsolar,andtheneedforexpandedstorage,improvednetworksandupgradedinfrastructure.TheNorthSeaenergysystemcanachievethebiggestrewards,however,withcoordinatedactionacrossallfronts,withequalpartsleadershipandvisionfromthecorecontributors.12131514Allthreeachievenetzeroby2050,howeverinvestingnowtopursueTransformationalwillgeneratethehighestgrowthinjobs,andthegreatestrewardsfortheUKeconomy.However,nomatterthescenario,nonewillbesuccessfulinisolationandassuch,aredesignedtosupportandcontributetowiderUKeffortsasoutlinedbytheCCC’smodellingofothersegmentsoftheeconomy.Theseincludeplannedemissions-savingpathwaysacrossthebuildingsector,heating,fromindustrialprocesses,andinallsegmentsoftransport.Overlappingtechnologieswillbeofparticularvalueinthenetzerobigpicture,particularlyCCSandhydrogen-bothblueandgreen-whichisapotentialfuelfortransport,heatingandindustry.ItisalsoimportanttonotethattheEmerging,ProgressiveandTransformationalscenariosarefocusedondomesticmarkets;newmarketsrepresentaddedopportunity–forinstancetheexportofwind-poweredgreenhydrogentomeetanticipatedsignificantglobaldemand,electricityinterconnectionoutsidetheUK,andcarbonsequestrationforEuropeanneighbours.ThisisanenormousopportunityfortheUKtopositionitselfasaleadingexporterofnetzeroenergytechnologyandknowhow,andembracethesocial,economicandenvironmentalbenefitsthatcomehandinhand.Theskillsandexpertisedevelopedtomeetdomesticchallenges,honedinthesearchforinnovationandaffordablesolutions,willofferfurthereconomicopportunitiesbeyondtheUKmarket.Allofthescenariosarebasedon60%UKcontentinoffshorewindandhydrogen,and70-75%inoilandgasandCCS,whichisessentialifweasanationaretounlockthepotentialofnext-generationenergydevelopment.TheyarealsobasedonthebeliefthattheUKwillbegreatlyenhancedifweembracetheintegratedenergyvisionatpace:drivingaclearhydrogenstrategy,rampingupoffshoreandfloatingwindandcapitalisingonourindigenousoilandgasassetsviainnovativetechnologiesincludingelectrificationandCCS.TheEmerging,ProgressiveandTransformationalscenariosarefurthermorerootedinambition:todecarboniseourowncountrywhileopeningthedoortodeliveryofservicesandtechnologiestoexportmarketsasaglobalnetzeroleader;toprovideaffordableenergyforconsumersandbusinessesbyreducingthecostofcriticaltechnology;toenableourfuturepathwaythroughcoordinated,cross-industryaction.EMERGINGPROGRESSIVETRANSFORMATIONALOurthreescenarios–Emerging,ProgressiveandTransformational–havebeenselectedtoillustratearangeofoptionsfor2050andbuildontheFurtherAmbitionScenarioasoutlinedbytheCommitteeforClimateChange(CCC)inits2019report‘NetZero:theUK’scontributiontostoppingglobalwarming’.Anumberofoutcomesarereflectedbasedonvaryingcontributions,anddegreesofmaturityandcostreductions,acrossblueandgreenhydrogen,domesticandimportedhydrocarbons,CCS,offshorewindandotherrenewables.EmergingisbuiltaroundsignificantcontributionsfromgasandbluehydrogenwithwindandCCSplayingasupportingrole,whileunderProgressivetheenergymixalsofeaturesgas,alongwithblueandgreenhydrogenandalargercontributionfromoffshorewind.UndertheTransformationalscenario,greenhydrogenandwindtakealeadingrolewithareducedcontributionfromgasandloweredrequirementforCCS.Thepotentialupsidesfromourscenariosareclear:232,000directandindirectjobs,totalannualeconomicimpactofupto£125bnandpotentialcumulativeinvestmentof£416bnby2050,dependingontheexactpathchosen.1716289TWh140270TWhElectricity195TWh75TWhGreenBlueMTCO2/year32TWh640Twh700Twh027TWhElectricityOilGasMTCO2/year113MTCO2/year270TWh555TWhOilGas380TWhElectricity101TWhHydrogen17TWhBlue253TWhGreen81MTCO2/year270TWh333TWhOilGas380TWhElectricity340TWhHydrogenEMERGING2050PROGRESSIVE2050TRANSFORMATIONAL2050Summary81%IMPORTS~40%IMPORTS72%IMPORTS>Bluehydrogenplaysamajorrole>Largerelianceonimportedgas>Negligibleroleforﬂoatingwind>SigniﬁcantrequirementforCCSTODAY2020>Blueandgreenhydrogennotcommerciallyavailable>Gasimportdependencyrisingyearonyear>FloatingwindtrialsinUKwaters>CCSunderdevelopmentbutnotoperational>Blueandgreenhydrogenplayamajorrole>Moderaterelianceongasimports>Largeroleforﬂoatingoﬀshorewind>SigniﬁcantrequirementforCCS>Greenhydrogenplaysamajorrole>Lowrelianceonimportedgas>Crucialroleforﬂoatingwind>ModeraterequirementforCCSTechnologyprioritiesInnovationcostsavingsOﬀshoreenergymixOﬀshorewindHydrogenOil&GasCarbonCapture&Storage(CCS)GreenHydrogenOﬀshoreWindBlueHydrogenCarbonCapture&StorageElectrolysercatalystinnovationSubseaelectrolysersolutionsincorporatingcompressionSeawaterelectrolysis£55bnReducedcostﬂoatingwindfoundationsDynamiccablingsolutionstoreducedowntimeInnovativeﬂoatingwindmooringsystems£97bnEnhancedSMRreactormembranesandcatalystsHigh-capacitysorbentsmoredurableathightemperaturesAlternativeproductionmethodseg,plasmapyrolysis£6.5bnModularretroﬁttablecarboncapturesolutionsDirectair/seawatercaptureModellinggeologicalbehaviourofCO2£1.3bnCostReduction61%CostReduction24%CostReduction32%CostReduction13%CCSCCSEconomyJobsImportsInvestmentImportsUK£13.4bn£9.4bn£6.5bnAverageCAPEXp.aAverageCAPEXp.aAverageCAPEXp.a£10bnAveragehistoricCAPEXp.a232,000158,000113,000Direct&IndirectDirect&IndirectDirect&Indirect140,000£125bnTotalEcomomicImpact£100bn£80bn£40bnImports~45%UKCSUKCS~30%UKCSImports~10%ImportsImports~45%UKCS£TotalEcomomicImpactTotalEcomomicImpactDirect&IndirectTotalEcomomicImpact270Twh801TwhOilGas54%IMPORTSATAGLANCEANINTEGRATEDENERGYVISIONFOR20501819SCENARIOSINDEPTHAnenergysystemdrivenbyoffshorewindandgreenhydrogen.>£125bneconomicimpact>232,000jobs(66%increaseon2020)>£13.4bninvestmentperyearRenewableelectricityplaysanincreasingrolewithgasstillasignificantcontributortotheoverallenergymix,alongsideasignificantrequirementforcarboncaptureandstorage.>£80bneconomicimpact>113,000jobs(20%decreasefrom2020)>£6.5bninvestmentperyearAnincreasedshareofoffshorerenewablesdominatestheelectricitymarket,alongsideablue/greenhydrogensplitandamajorroleforcarboncaptureandstorage.>£100bneconomicimpact>158,000jobs(13%increaseon2020)>£9.4bninvestmentperyearPROGRESSIVEEMERGINGTRANSFORMATIONALOurdifferentscenariosallofferaroutemaptonetzeroby2050andincludevaryinglevelsofopportunitywithinrenewables,oilandgas,blueandgreenhydrogenandCCS.Theypredictarangeofsignificanteconomicimpactsbasedonelementsincludingspecifictechnologicaladvancement,electricitygenerationandtheenergymix.20EMERGINGRenewableelectricityplaysanincreasingrolewithgasstillasignificantcontributortotheoverallenergymix,alongsideasignificantrequirementforcarboncaptureandstorage.KEYASSUMPTIONS60GW60GWoffshorewind(lowerthanCCC’sMay201975GWtarget)Limitedexpansionofothermarinerenewables65%ofelectricityfromrenewablegenerationIncreaseinonshorewindandsolar100%UKoildemandmetfromUKproduction81%ofgassuppliedfromimports100%bluehydrogenwithCCS337.5TWhofgasrequiredforbluehydrogen140MTCO2/yAtscale,around140MTCO2/yin205033%forbluehydrogen11%forelectricitygenerationWHATITLOOKSLIKETotalenergyproductionremainsheavilyreliantonhydrocarbons,primarilygas,whichwouldrequiresignificantimportsTogeneratepowerandproducehydrogen,aswellasmeetingdemandfordomesticandindustrialuses,morethan500TWhofgaswouldberequired,atapproximately800,000BOE/d,roughlysimilartodemandin2020.ThisfaroutstripsUKdomesticresourcepotential,leavingtheUKreliantontotalimportsofapproximately80%.Powergenerationisprimarilyfromlow-carbonsourcesexpectedtototal16MTCO2/yElectricityfromrenewableswillmeetaround65%ofdemand,alongwithnuclearandbio-energywithCCS.Gaswillmeetaround17%ofgenerationwithasignificantCCScomponent.Totalemissionstobeoffsetunderthisscenarioareexpectedtototal16MTCO2/y.EfficiencygainsandcostreductionswillbenecessaryforbluehydrogenproductionandCCSCostreductionsarepossibleacrosstheEmergingscenarioonthebackoftechnologyandinnovationupgrades,particularlyinCCS.CrucialenablersincludeadvancedSteamMethaneReformation(SMR)reactormembranesandcatalysts,highcapacitysorbentsandalternativemethodstoSMRsuchasplasmapyrolysis.Keyareasforinnovationincludedirectaircaptureandmodular/retrofittablesolutions,aswellascompatiblewellplugandabandonmentandreservoirmonitoring.TotaleconomicoutputacrosstheUKeconomyisboostedfrom£40bnin2020to£80bnin2050buttotaljobsdecreasefrom140,000to113,000.TheEmergingscenarioisexpectedtoleadtoadecreaseindirectandindirectjobsinthedomesticoffshoreenergysector,fromatotalofaround140,000in2020to113,000in2050.Seepage26formoredetail.WHATITREQUIRES£202bncumulativeinvestmentthrough2050Costreductionandincreasedefficiencyofcarboncapture,transportandstoragetechnologySignificantincreaseinbluehydrogenproduction,withmorethan60plantswithtotalcapacitygreaterthan35GWLifeextensionandelectrificationofoilandgasassetstoreduceproductionemissionsandensurehighestproportionofsupplycomesfromdomesticsourcesHydrogenOil&GasCarbon,Capture&StorageRenewablesCCSReductionincostoffloatingwindTechnologyEconomicimpactandjobsEnergyuseElectricitygeneration~4000Wouldrequire~4,000turbinesfixedandfloatingby2050basedon15MWcapacity2122KEYASSUMPTIONS~6600Wouldrequire~6,600turbinesfixedandfloatingby2050basedon15MWcapacityLimitedexpansionofothermarinerenewables80%ofelectricityfromrenewablegenerationIncreaseinonshorewindandsolar100%UKoildemandmetfromUKproduction72%ofgassuppliedfromimports73%bluehydrogenwithCCS27%greenhydrogen113MTCO2/yAtscale,around113MTCO2/yin2050Renewables100GW100GWoffshorewind(higherthanCCC’sMay201975GWtarget)101TWhofoffshorewindprovides75TWhofgreenhydrogen244TWhofgasprovides195TWhofbluehydrogenHydrogenOil&GasCarbon,Capture&StorageRenewablesCCSWHATITLOOKSLIKEGradualphasingoutofelectricitygeneratedfromgasby2050,withresourcesdivertedtohydrogenproductionTogeneratetherequiredpowerforhydrogenandsatisfydemandfordomesticandindustrialuses,thesystemwouldrequireaninputofroughly400TWhofgas,ormarginallylowerthancurrentUKdemandat650,000BOE/d.ThisdemandfaroutstripstheUKdomesticresourcepotentialandresultsinanimportrelianceof72%.Renewablesprovide80%ofelectricitygenerationGaspowergenerationisphasedoutcompletelyby2050undertheProgressivescenario,withthebalancebeingmadeupprimarilyfromoffshorewind.Thishighrenewablesscenarioiscontingentonassociatedimprovementsinstorage,interconnectionandnetworks.DeploymentatscalewilldrivecostreductionsparticularlyinoffshorewindThemorebalancedenergysystemofProgressive,withahigherproportionofwind,willalsodriveinnovationinbluehydrogenandCCS.Thisscenarioisbasedonareducedcostofgreenhydrogen,enablinganincreasingproportionintheenergymixby2050.KeyareasforinnovationincludeimprovedefficiencyofexistingSMRandAuthothermalReforming(ATR)technologies,alternativebluehydrogenproductionmethods,modellingofgeologicalbehavioursforCO2andinter-seasonalhydrogenstorage,directair/seawatercapture.Forfloatingwind,thefocuswillbeonUKCS-specificfoundationsandmooringdesignsaswellasdynamiccablingsolutions.TotaleconomicoutputacrosstheUKeconomyisboostedfrom£40bnin2020to£100bnin2050andemploymentincreasesfrom140,000to158,000jobsOverallgrowthissignificantwithdecliningoilandgasrevenuesoffsetbyexpansioninoffshorerenewablesjobsalongsidehydrogenandCCS.Directandindirectemploymentintheoffshoreenergysectorjumpsfrom140,000in2020to158,000in2050undertheProgressivescenario.Seepage26formoredetail.WHATITREQUIRES£293bncumulativeinvestmentthrough2050Largescale-upofbluehydrogen,requiringsignificantcostreductionandefficiencygainsLargescale-upofgreenhydrogen,includingcostreductionandefficiencygainsIncreaseddeploymentofoffshorewind,bothfloatingandfixed,atreducedcostOilandgaselectrificationtoextendfieldlifeandsecuredomesticsupplyEconomicimpactandjobsTechnologyElectricitygenerationEnergyUsePROGRESSIVEAnincreasedshareofoffshorerenewablesdominatestheelectricitymarket,alongsideablue/greenhydrogensplitandamajorroleforcarboncaptureandstorage.2324KEYASSUMPTIONSScenario1~10,000Wouldrequire~10,000turbinesfixedandfloatingby2050basedon15MWcapacityLimitedexpansionofothermarinerenewables80%ofelectricityfromrenewablegeneration,significantstorageandimprovedgridflexibilityIncreaseinonshorewindandsolar100%UKoildemandmetfromUKproduction54%ofgassuppliedfromimports7%bluehydrogen93%greenhydrogen91MTCO2/yAtscale,around91MTCO2/yin2050150GW150GWoffshorewind(doubletheCCC’sMay201975GWtarget)341TWhofoffshorewindprovides252TWhofgreenhydrogen21.5TWhofgasprovides17TWhofbluehydrogenHydrogenOil&GasCarbon,Capture&StorageRenewablesCCSWHATITLOOKSLIKESignificantwindandhydrogenleadstoreducedrelianceonimportedgasOffshorewindandgreenhydrogendominatetheenergymixintheTransformationalscenariofor2050.Relianceonimportedgasiscutto54%,representingareductionof355,000BOE/dfromCCCestimates.AhighproportionofrenewableelectricityenabledbyimprovementsinthewiderenergysystemRenewablessupply80%ofelectricity.Thisisbeyondcurrentdayvariabilitylimitsbutadvancesanddeploymentacrossbatteryandhydrogenstorage,aswellassmartgrids,areexpectedtobridgeanygaps.Traditionalgas-firedplantsmayalsobeusedinconjunctionwithcarboncapture,oralternativelyhydrogenpowerplants,tooffsetanyshortfallindemandduringtimesoflowrenewablesoutput.UndertheTransformationalscenario,relianceongasforpowergenerationisphasedoutintheearly2040s,10yearsaheadoftheProgressivetimeline.Innovationacrossgreenhydrogenandoffshorewindcouldresultincapexsavingsof£153bnby2050Investmentinlarge-scaledeploymentofwindandgreenhydrogenareexpectedtoleadtocapexsavingsof£153bnby2050.Forthelatter,keyareasincludeadvancementofelectrolysercatalysts,subseaelectrolysersandcompressionssystems,andsaltwaterelectrolysers.Forwind,innovationeffortswillfocusonfloatingfoundations,mooringsystemsanddynamiccablingsolutions.Alsokeywillbedevelopmentofammoniaorotherlow-carbonfuelledturbinesandmarinehydrogentransportsolutions.TotaleconomicoutputacrosstheUKeconomyisboostedfrom£40bnin2020tomorethan£125bnin2050,andemploymentincreasesfrom140,000to232,000jobsTheTransformationalscenariorepresentsthehighestpotentialincreaseintotaleconomicimpactandjobs.Directandindirectemploymentwillbenefitlargelyfromthedeploymentofoffshorerenewablesandgreenhydrogen(80%oftotal),resultingin232,000jobsacrosstheoffshoreenergysectorin2050,comparedwith140,000in2020.Seepage26formoredetail.WHATITREQUIRES£416bncumulativeinvestmentthrough2050FloatingwindtoaccessdeeperwatersandincreasedcapacityScale-upofgreenhydrogenrequiringsignificantcostreductionandefficiencygainsScale-upofearlybluehydrogenwithcostreductionandefficiencygainsby2035Fast-trackconsentingprocessfornewoffshoredeployments,bothwindandhydrogenOilandgaselectrificationtoextendfieldlifeandsecuredomesticsupplyEconomicimpactandjobsTechnologyElectricitygenerationEnergyUseTRANSFORMATIONALAnenergysystemdrivenbyoffshorewindandgreenhydrogen2527TheNorthSea’snecessaryjourneytonetzerorepresentsamassiveopportunityfortheUK:between£80bnand£125bnoftotaleconomicimpactin2050,dependingonthepathchosen.Itiscritical,however,thatweacturgentlytorealisethiseconomicopportunityandcreatejobs.Weneedhigherinvestment,quickerinterventionroutesandacceleratedaction–notonlytoachievethislevelofeconomicimpactbutevenmoreimportantly,tosecureandcreatenewjobswhichwillcounteracttheemploymentlossesweexpecttoseethisdecade.Alloptions–Emerging,ProgressiveandTransformational–arebuiltoncoordinatedactionacrossemployment,infrastructureandpolicy,mitigatingimpactswhilemaximisingrewards.Averageannualinvestmentofbetween£6.5bnand£13.4bn,worthatotalofbetween£202bnand£416bnby2050,ispredicatedoncross-sectorbuy-in,industrial-scaleprivatesectorinvestmentandgovernmentsupport.Thesupplychainwillbeencouragedtoseizetheopportunitiesonoffer,guidedbyaclearroadmapfortheNorthSeathatfacilitatescapability-buildingwhilesimultaneouslyensuringthatasmuchvalue,contentandemploymentaspossibleremainsintheUK.Between113,000and232,000directandindirectjobscouldbesupportedintheUKenergysectorbymid-centuryacrossallsectors,basedonthecurrentanticipationof60%UKlocalcontentinoffshorewindandhydrogen.Employmentinoffshorewind,forbothpowerandproductionofhydrogen,couldtotalnearly160,000,CCScouldsupportupto28,000posts,whileblueandgreenhydrogencouldpotentiallyemploy35,000.Domesticoilandgasjobsareexpectedtobearound27,000in2050.Itshouldbenotedthatthestatusquoisnotanoption;joblossesunderanybusinessasusualscenariowillbesignificant,particularlyintheperiodto2035whenemploymentinoilandgasisexpectedtodropbyaround60,000.EvenintheEmergingscenario,asignificantlossofjobsandskillsispredicted.TheUKcannotaffordtowastetheexpertiseandexperiencethateachofthosejobsrepresents..Industry,supportedbygovernment,isreadytoinvestintraining,transferability,innovationandthesupplychain;definitiveactionwillensurethetrueextentoffutureemploymentandwidereconomicbenefitisrealisedwhileavoidingthepotentialnegativeimpactsofthetransitiontothenewNorthSea.JOBSANDECONOMY2050Employment(directandindirect)EMERGINGPROGRESSIVETRANSFORMATIONAL■Oil&Gas■OSWtopower■OSWtogreenH2■GreenHydrogen■BlueHydrogen■CCS50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000THEUKCANNOTAFFORDTOWASTETHESKILLS,EXPERTISEANDEXPERIENCETHATEACHOFTHOSEJOBSREPRESENTS262928BLUEHYDROGENPotentialcapexsavings32%£6.5bnThedevelopmentofenhancedSMRreactormembranesandcatalysts,alongwithalternativeproductionmethodsandhigh-capacitysorbents,woulddrivesignificantcostssavingsinthebluehydrogensector,whichismorematurethanitsgreencounterpart.Expansionofthetechnology,whichreliesonhydrocarbonstodriveproduction,isseenaskeyintheneartermtohelpestablishmarketdemandamongdomestic,transportandindustrialsources.DevelopmentwillstimulateCCS,whichisrequiredtocaptureCO2emissionscreatedaspartoftheelectrolysisprocess.Totalpotentialcapexsavingsbetween2020and2050are£6.5bnandseveralCCSprojectsalreadyindevelopmentintheUK,includingtheAcornProjectandNetZeroTeeside,willhelpustoacceleratethedeliveryofbluehydrogen.CARBONCAPTURE&STORAGEPotentialcapexsavings13%£1.3bnCCSisacrucialtechnologypartnerintheUKNorthSea’sdrivetomeetnetzeroambitionsby2050.Eachillustrativescenariohighlightsthattheabilitytocaptureemissionsfromdomesticgenerationwillbekey,openingthedoortobecomingbothaworldleaderinthetechnologyandakeyEuropeanlocationforsequestration.TheuniquegeologyoftheUKNorthSeaprovidessafeoptionsforlong-termstorageand,withtherightinvestment,willsecuredomesticemploymentandsupplychainproducts.Earlyadoptionwilldovetailwithdemandforbluehydrogenintheneartermandsetthestageforgreenhydrogeninthemediumterm.Capexsavingsareexpectedtototal£1.3bnbetween2030and2050.OILANDGASVariablecapexsavingsOilandgaswillremainavitalsourceofenergyfortheUKin2050.Theindustryiscommittedtoresponsibleconsumption,offsetbyCCS,aspartofwidernetzeroproduction,alongsideelectrification,renewablesintegration,flaringmitigationandadvancedleakdetection.Remoteoperationandfulldigitisationcanfurthermitigatecarbonimpacts.Specificcostreductionsinthehydrocarbonssectorwillbemostsignificantinemissionsreductiontechnologiesandnewsubseaequipmentdesignedtotapstrandedreserves,aswellasthroughefficienciesacrossoperations.Site-specificdemandswilldictatethemosteffectivemeasurestoadopt.GREENHYDROGENPotentialcapexsavings61%£55bnCostsarecurrentlyuneconomicinwhatremainsanascenttechnologywithlimitedpracticalapplication.However,webelievethereisahugeopportunitytodevelopthesectoratscale,drivingdramaticallyreducedcosts–upto£55bnintotalbetween2020and2050–andincreasedefficiency.Potentialdependsonthenetzerooptionselected.UndertheEmergingscenariowidespreaddeploymentofthetechnology–andsodevelopment–isunlikely,whereasundertheProgressiveandTransformationalmodelsgreenhydrogenisakeyenablerof2050ambitions.Greenhydrogenismostviableinanenergysystemwhereexcessrenewablesgenerationcandriveproductionatscale.Thisalsocreatesapotentialnewexportmarket,wherebytheUKcansupplysurplusgreenhydrogentopartsofmainlandEurope.OFFSHOREWINDPotentialcapexsavings24%£97bnCostreductionsinoffshorewindwillbeachievedbyincreasingthecapacityofoffshorewindturbines,andasmorefocusisplacedonthefloatingsegmentintermsoffoundationdesignandmanufacture,mooringsystemsanddynamiccabling.AstandardisedapproachbasedontherequirementsoftheUKCSoffersthepotentialforeconomiesofscaleandsignificantlocalcontent.Offshorewind,bothfixedandfloating,willbedeployedatscaleacrossallofourscenariostomeet2050ambitionsandtotalcapexsavingscouldtotalasmuchas£97bnoverthe30-yearperiod;finiteoptionsforbottom-fixedturbinesareexpectedtodrivedevelopmentofthefloatingsegmentatapricepointthatenablesend-userstoaccessaffordableenergy,withUKGovernmenttargeting1GWby2030.Demandformorepowerfulnext-generationturbinesinthe20MW-classoffersthepotentialforhome-grownintellectualproperty.ENABLINGAFFORDABILITYNetzeroisachievableusingexistingcommercially-readyenergytechnologiesbutnotinamannerthatwouldcurrentlybeconsideredaffordable.Itisparamount,therefore,thatweenablecostreductionsthroughinnovationacrossallsectors.Workingtogether,theNorthSeasectorscanensureparallelprogressonmultiplefronts:interplayandinterlinkbetweenelectrificationofoilandgas,theincreaseddeploymentofoffshorewind,theproductionofhydrogenandtheadventofwidespreadCCS.Theoffshoreenergysectorwillworktosecurestakeholderandgovernmentbuy-inandensureopencommunicationchannelswithconsumersandbusinessusers.Mobilisationacrossalltechnologieswillbeaccompaniedby,andcarriedoutagainstabackgroundof,thewidersocio-economiccontext.30TECHNOLOGYFOR2050TheNorthSeaenergysectorbelievesinvestinginlarge-scaletechnologyadvancesandadoptionwillbefundamentaltomeetingnetzeroambitions,whilesimultaneouslyaddressingaffordabilitythroughpotentialcapexsavingsof£154bnthrough2050.Deploymentofnext-generationsolutionsiscentraltothesectorrequirementsandscenariosalreadyoutlined,andwilladdressbothgapstobefilledandbarrierstobeovercomeinordertomakeanyintegratedNorthSeaenergyvisionareality.Andcrucially,thosenetzeroinnovationsarekeytomakingenergyaffordablefordomestic,businessandindustrialconsumers.TheoffshoreenergysectoracrosstheNorthSeaiscommittedtothedevelopmentandwidespreaduptakeofnewandexistingtechnologiesinoffshoreelectrification,CCS,renewablesandhydrogen.Alsokeyisamajorreviewofinternalprocessesandproductsthatwillenablereducedoilandgasemissionsacrossthevaluechain.ValuableworkonidentifyingavailabletechnologiesandthoseareaswheremoreworkneedstobedonehasalreadybeencompiledbytheNetZeroTechnologyCentreinitsClosingtheGapReport.Buildingonthatwork,theenergysectorsarepreparedtomeetthetechnologychallengewithcoordinatedactionacrossanumberoffronts.Ofparticularimportancewillbesupportforinnovationoftheexistingcontributors–hydrocarbons,wind,hydrogen,CCS–thatarecriticaltodeliveryofaffordableenergy,andtheacceptancethatmultiplesolutionswillberequiredtomeetnetzeroambitions.Further,webelievethatexecutionmustbebasedonexpandedUKcapabilitiesinareasincludingengineering,manufacturingandinstallation,developmentofinnovationandassociatedintellectualproperty,andoptimisedsupplychains,skillsandinfrastructure.Investmentbytheoffshoreenergyindustries,supportedbygovernment,canalsomaximisethepotentialofachievingsignificantdomesticcontentprovisioninthefaceofincreasinglevelsofcompetitionfrombothNorthSeaneighboursandbeyond.Oil&GasAmmoniaorotherlow-carbonfuelledturbinesMarinehydrogentransportsolutionsPlaformelectrification(AC/DCcablingsolutions)SubseaelectrificationcostreductionOffshoreWindUK-specificfloatingwindfoundationsInnovativefloatingwindmooringsystemsDynamiccablingsolutionstoreducewinddowntimeCarbonCapture&StorageModellingofgeologicalbehavioursofCO2Modular,retrofittablecarboncapturesolutionsDirectair/seawatercaptureCO2-compatiblewellplugandabandonmenttechniquesHigh-capacitysorbentsdurableathightemperaturesHydrogenSeawaterelectrolysisElectrolysercatalystinnovationSubseaelectrolysersystemsincorporatingcompressionImprovedefficiencyofexistingSMRandATRtechnologyEnhancedSMRreactormembranesandcatalystsAlternativebluehydrogenproductionmethodsInter-seasonalhydrogenstorageWehaveidentifiedarangeofcriticaltechnologies,whichincludebutarenotlimitedto:INNOVATIONCANDELIVERPOTENTIALCAPEXSAVINGSOF£154bnBY20503132AMASSIVEOPPORTUNITYFORTHEUK£80bn/yTotaleconomicimpactin2050113,000Totaldirectandindirectjobsin2050£6.5bnAveragecapexinvestmentperyearto2050£202bnCumulativecapexinvestmentto2050£100bn/yTotaleconomicimpactin2050158,000Totaldirectandindirectjobsin2050£9.4bnAveragecapexinvestmentperyearto2050£293bnCumulativecapexinvestmentto2050EMERGINGPROGRESSIVE£125bn/yTotaleconomicimpactin2050232,000Totaldirectandindirectjobsin2050£13.4bnAveragecapexinvestmentperyearto2050£416bnCumulativecapexinvestmentto2050TRANSFORMATIONAL333534METHODOLOGYECONOMICIMPACTThishasbeenmodelledforallsectorsusingthesamemethodology.Inputshavebeencalculatedandsplitintorevenue,CAPEX,OPEXanddecommissioning(decom).ThesemetricshavebeensplitfurthertoassigninputsagainstStandardIndustrialClassification(SIC)codes,aseachindustryhasadifferentmultiplier.ORECatapultcalculatedinputsforoffshorewindandhydrogen.TheNetZeroTechnologyCentrecalculatedinputsforCCUS.OilandgasinputshavebeentakenfromWoodMackenzie,specificallyitsmodelusedinthe‘ClosingtheGap’report.Inallcases,theseinputshavebeenderivedfromestimatesofthetrajectoryforeachofthefoursectorsfor:levelsofdeploymentanddecom;levelsofrevenueperunitofoutput;levelofCAPEXandOPEXperunitdeployed;andlevelofdecomcostperunitdecommissioned.TheserevenueandcostinputshavebeenmultipliedbytheassumedUKshareofcontentforeachsectorandmetric.Finally,theUKshareofinputismultipliedusingindustryeconomicimpactmultiplierstocreatethemodeloutputs.Modelinputsincludeboththeestimatedrevenueanditsmultipliereffect,plusthemultipliereffectofcosts(butnottheunderlyingcoststhemselves,whicharepaidforbyrevenueandthereforeincludingwouldmeandouble-countingunderlyingcosts).Thetotalofalltheseoutputsisthetotaleconomicimpact.Totaleconomicimpactsectorrevenue(asaproxyfortotalsectoreconomicoutput)+multipliereffectsofrevenue+multipliereffectsofCAPEX,OPEXanddecom(includedtoreflectthefactthatoutputmultipliersfromInput-Outputtablesdonotcapturetheextentofspendandeconomicactivityinrapidlychangingindustries).JOBESTIMATESDirectjobnumbersforoffshorerenewables,hydrogenandCCUShavebeencalculatedusingthemethodbelow:Averageannualpayrollcost£50-65kperFTEbasedonmappingEstimated%paidforlabourUKshareofspendpaidforlabour,basedonmappingindustrysectors-worksout~25%ofspendisonlabourDomesticFTEnumbersDivideUKshareoflabourspendbyaveragepayrollcostAssigntoSICcodese.g.RevenuetogasdistributionCAPEXtoconstructionInputsRevenueCAPEXOPEXDecomUKshareofcontentMultiplyinputsby40-75%dependingonthesectorandmetricEconomicimpactMultiplybyeconomicimpactmultiplierandsumtocalculatetotalimpactThismethodofcalculatingeconomicimpactdiffersslightlyfromtheWoodMackenzieapproachusedintheClosingtheGapreport(September2020),whichincludedtotaleconomicimpactratherthanjusttheUKshareofeconomicimpact.IndirectjobcalculationhasusedthesamemultipliersasWoodMackenzie.Aminimumbaselinenumberofjobsforeachsectorhasbeenestimated(notlinkedtoeconomicimpact)–forexample,therearegreenhydrogenjobstoday,despitelowlevelsofspendingandrevenue.WoodMackenziejobestimates(andinputs)foroilandgashavebeenused,ratherthancalculated.COSTSAVINGSCAPEXreductionshavebeenmodelledbasedonindividuallycalculatedlearningrates.Thelearningrateisapercentagereductionincostperunit(e.g.costperMWh)foreverydoublingofinstalledcapacity(e.g.totalnumberofunitsortotalGWcapacity).CostsavingswerecalculatedbasedoncomparisonofmodelledCAPEXreductionovertimeversuscurrentCAPEXcostsperunit.Costreductionsareconsideredtoconsistprimarilyofinnovationsavingsvianewtechnologicaladvancementsandscalingfactors.36ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSTheteamthatresearchedandpreparedthisreportwasledbyJasonPatersonandincludedMartynTulloch,MyrtleDawes,LucaCorradi,NeilWilkinson,EmmaSwiergon,CharlieBoothandAnaPiresdeAlmeidafromtheNetZeroTechnologyCentreandGavinSmartandTomQuinnfromORECatapult.TheteamwouldliketothankWoodMackenzieforitssupportwiththeprojectincludingeconomicmodellingandAspectforitsstrategiccommunicationadvice,includingdesignandproductionofthereport.AndrewJamieson(OffshoreRenewableEnergyCatapult)ColetteCohen(NetZeroTechnologyCentre)CarloProcaccini(Oil&GasAuthority)GarethWynn(OGUK)MichaelTholen(OGUK)ClaireMack(ScottishRenewables)StephenMarcos-Jones(UKPIA)AndyRoberts(UKPIA)JourdanEdwards(Ofgem)AndyMcDonald(ScottishEnterprise)MartinFidler(ScottishEnterprise)JeffAsser(BEIS)WendyKennedy(BEIS)DanielLord(BEIS)MarkShields(BEIS)JulianSalazar(BEIS)HughMcNeal(RenewableUK)RebeccaWilliams(RenewableUK)MaggieMcGinlay(OpportunityNorthEast)MartinMcCormack(OpportunityNorthEast)RichardSweetnam(AberdeenCityCouncil)MichelleHandforth(AberdeenHarbour)GeorgeBoyne(UniversityofAberdeen)ElizabethRattray(UniversityofAberdeen)PauldeLeeuw(RobertGordonUniversity)ScottBradley(ScottishGovernment)AndrewHogg(ScottishGovernment)JillGlennie(OPITO)DavidRennie(SDI)LindsayGrant(WoodMackenzie)MalcolmForbes-Cable(WoodMackenzie)JessicaBrewer(WoodMackenzie)JakeMolloy(RMT)ColinMaciver(CrownEstateScotland)Industryexpertsinvolvedinthedevelopmentofthisreport:ANINTEGRATEDENERGYVISIONFOR2050

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