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The Voluntary Carbon

Market: Climate Finance

at an Inﬂection Point

BRIEFING PAPER

JANUARY 2023

In collaboration with

Bain & Company

Contents

Introduction

1 The need for a well-functioning voluntary carbon market

2 The carbon market is at an inﬂection point

3 Five key recommendations to scale responsible engagement in the carbon market

4 Building and evolving the credit portfolio over time

Contributors

Endnotes

Cover: Gettyimages/weerapatkiatdumrong

Inside: Gettyimages/Andriy Onufriyenko

Disclaimer

This document is published by the World

Economic Forum as a contribution to a

project, insight area or interaction. The

ﬁndings, interpretations and conclusions

expressed herein are a result of a

collaborative process facilitated and

endorsed by the World Economic Forum

but whose results do not necessarily

represent the views of the World Economic

Forum, nor the entirety of its Members,

Partners or other stakeholders.

reserved. No part of this publication may

be reproduced or transmitted in any form

or by any means, including photocopying

and recording, or by any information

storage and retrieval system.

The Voluntary Carbon Market: Climate Finance at an Inﬂection Point 2

The Voluntary Carbon Market:

Climate Finance at an Inﬂection Point

January 2023

Introduction

The corporate net-zero imperative: accelerating

decarbonization and investing in nature.

The science is clear: the world must reduce

greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030 to limit

global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.1

Mitigation plans must reduce emissions across

company operations and value chains, while

investing in nature in parallel. According to the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC), the net CO2 emissions from land use, land-

use change and forestry contributed to around

10% of global emissions between 2010 and

2019.2 Deforestation is responsible for nearly 15%

of global CO2 emissions.3 Failure to invest in nature

and to prevent or reverse natural loss increases

global emissions.

Natural climate solutions can provide one-third of

the mitigation required by 2030 to achieve global

climate goals and are some of the few solutions that

are ready today for carbon removal.4 Conserving

natural carbon sinks has signiﬁcant beneﬁts beyond

emissions reduction: around 350 million people

rely directly on forests for more than 20% of their

income,5 and 80% of terrestrial species reside in

tropical forests.6

This means governments and businesses must

continue to commit to and implement direct

decarbonization policies and actions that align with

the pace of decarbonization required by science.

For companies, it means acting on the following

critical levers:7

– Direct mitigation by decarbonizing Scope 1, 2

and 3 emissions at a pace consistent with limiting

warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

– Investing in the protection and restoration of

ecosystems beyond the emissions reductions

in their own operations; for example, through

high-integrity carbon credits and investment in

nature-positive projects.

– Purchasing high-quality carbon credits from

projects that remove and sequester carbon from

the atmosphere to balance out truly unavoidable

emissions at net zero.

The voluntary carbon market (VCM) is expected

to have channelled more than $1.2 billion in

investment ﬂows over 2022, helping to mitigate

about 161 megatonnes (Mt) of carbon emissions8 –

but it is at an inﬂection point, and it has come under

greater scrutiny. Is it working to deliver the promised

outcomes? Should companies invest as part of their

corporate decarbonization strategies? How can such

investment be directed in a nature-positive direction

with integrity and impact? What is the best way to

scale such investments?

This brieﬁng paper provides an insight into the critical

challenges delaying the market from achieving scale

as well as an initial set of recommendations that

corporate leaders can adopt and support to address

these challenges as part of a decarbonization

agenda. The paper serves as the basis for further

dialogue to pave the way for wider action in 2023.

The Voluntary Carbon Market: Climate Finance at an Inﬂection Point 3

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TheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPointBRIEFINGPAPERJANUARY2023IncollaborationwithBain&CompanyContentsIntroduction1Theneedforawell-functioningvoluntarycarbonmarket2Thecarbonmarketisataninflectionpoint3Fivekeyrecommendationstoscaleresponsibleengagementinthecarbonmarket4BuildingandevolvingthecreditportfolioovertimeContributorsEndnotes3469111314Cover:Gettyimages/weerapatkiatdumrongInside:Gettyimages/AndriyOnufriyenkoDisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2023WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.TheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint2TheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPointJanuary2023IntroductionThecorporatenet-zeroimperative:acceleratingdecarbonizationandinvestinginnature.Thescienceisclear:theworldmustreducegreenhousegasemissionsby43%by2030tolimitglobalwarmingto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels.1Mitigationplansmustreduceemissionsacrosscompanyoperationsandvaluechains,whileinvestinginnatureinparallel.AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),thenetCO2emissionsfromlanduse,land-usechangeandforestrycontributedtoaround10%ofglobalemissionsbetween2010and2019.2Deforestationisresponsiblefornearly15%ofglobalCO2emissions.3Failuretoinvestinnatureandtopreventorreversenaturallossincreasesglobalemissions.Naturalclimatesolutionscanprovideone-thirdofthemitigationrequiredby2030toachieveglobalclimategoalsandaresomeofthefewsolutionsthatarereadytodayforcarbonremoval.4Conservingnaturalcarbonsinkshassignificantbenefitsbeyondemissionsreduction:around350millionpeoplerelydirectlyonforestsformorethan20%oftheirincome,5and80%ofterrestrialspeciesresideintropicalforests.6Thismeansgovernmentsandbusinessesmustcontinuetocommittoandimplementdirectdecarbonizationpoliciesandactionsthatalignwiththepaceofdecarbonizationrequiredbyscience.Forcompanies,itmeansactingonthefollowingcriticallevers:7–DirectmitigationbydecarbonizingScope1,2and3emissionsatapaceconsistentwithlimitingwarmingto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels.–Investingintheprotectionandrestorationofecosystemsbeyondtheemissionsreductionsintheirownoperations;forexample,throughhigh-integritycarboncreditsandinvestmentinnature-positiveprojects.–Purchasinghigh-qualitycarboncreditsfromprojectsthatremoveandsequestercarbonfromtheatmospheretobalanceouttrulyunavoidableemissionsatnetzero.Thevoluntarycarbonmarket(VCM)isexpectedtohavechannelledmorethan$1.2billionininvestmentflowsover2022,helpingtomitigateabout161megatonnes(Mt)ofcarbonemissions8–butitisataninflectionpoint,andithascomeundergreaterscrutiny.Isitworkingtodeliverthepromisedoutcomes?Shouldcompaniesinvestaspartoftheircorporatedecarbonizationstrategies?Howcansuchinvestmentbedirectedinanature-positivedirectionwithintegrityandimpact?Whatisthebestwaytoscalesuchinvestments?Thisbriefingpaperprovidesaninsightintothecriticalchallengesdelayingthemarketfromachievingscaleaswellasaninitialsetofrecommendationsthatcorporateleaderscanadoptandsupporttoaddressthesechallengesaspartofadecarbonizationagenda.Thepaperservesasthebasisforfurtherdialoguetopavethewayforwideractionin2023.TheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint3Theneedforawell-functioningvoluntarycarbonmarketPutsimply,companieswillneedallavailableleverstoachievetheirtargetsandmitigatedeliveryrisk.Natureoffersoneofthemosteffectivenear-termmeansofreducingemissions.Todecarbonizewithoutaddressingnaturelosswillfailtocapturesomeofthelowest-riskdecarbonizationsolutionsavailable.Additionally,investingtodayinengineeredsolutionswillhelpreducethegreenpremiumforsolutionsthatwillbecriticaltoachievingcorporatedecarbonizationstrategiesandlimitingwarmingtoa1.5-degreetrajectory.TheIPCChasclearlystatedthatcarbonremovalswillbecriticaltoachievingthisobjectiveintheSummaryforPolicymakersoftheSixthAssessmentReport.9Whetherthroughavoluntaryorcompliancemarketstructurethatevolvesovertime,companieswillneedtouselimitedoffsetsolutionstobalancetheirunavoidableresidualemissions.Carboncreditsaretheessential“net”innetzerotobalancecarbonaccountsbetweenemissionsandreductions.1Meetingcorporatecommitmentstodelivernet-zeropathwaysrepresentsamaterialchallengeforallcompanies.Voluntarycarbonmarketswillbeimportanttogothelastmile,i.e.neutralizethelast10%ofemissionsthatcan’tbefurtherreduced.BusinessVice-President,EnergyandClimate,ChemicalCompanyBottom-upanalysisofthe2,000leadingglobalcompaniesbyBain&Companysuggeststhevoluntarycarbonmarketcouldprovidedemandforupto2.6gigatonnes(Gt)ofcarboncreditsby2030,afactorapproximately13timeslargerthanthemarketin2021.10However,decisiveactionisneededtoscalethismarketfromaround0.2GtofCO2e(CO2equivalent:thewarmingpotentialofgreenhousegasesexpressedinunitsofCO2impact)in2021andensurethatitfunctionsinserviceofthepotentialenvironmentalandsocietaloutcomesitpromises.11TheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint4IncreaseinecosystemprotectionandrestorationNaturalclimatesolutionsaccountforathirdofthemitigationrequiredby2030tokeepglobalwarmingbelow2°CCriticalleverforcompaniestoachievetheirnet-zerotargetsHalfofnaturalclimatesolutions(11.3GtCO2e)costlessthan$100/tofCO2IncreasecapitalﬂowsintocarbonreductionsandremovalsThevoluntarycarbonmarketisexpectedtohavechannelledmorethan$1.2billionininvestmentﬂowsover2022,helpingtomitigate~161MtcarbonemissionsBetterpreservationofbiodiversity80%ofterrestrialspeciesresideintropicalforestsProtectionoflocalcommunities’livelihoods350millionpeopledependonforestsfortheirsubsistence,with>20%oftheirincomecomingfromforestsourcesThevoluntarycarbonmarketprovidesconsiderableopportunitiesFIGURE1Source:WBSCD,TroveResearch,WWF,theWorldBankTheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint5Thecarbonmarketisataninflectionpoint2Urgentinterventions,marketreformsandcorporatecommitmentstoensurecredibleparticipationinthecarbonmarketareurgentlyneeded.Thesearethepreconditionstogrowingmarketscale.Necessaryactionsincludereformstoincreasethecredibilityofsupplyanddemand,andthetransparencyofthemarketconnectingthetwo.Waitinguntil2030todosoisnotanoption.Theglobalpriceofinactionishigh.Marketparticipantswillinsteadneedtofindwaystoaddressthesechallenges.Despitethispotentialandtheurgentneedtotakeactiontoavoidfurtherdeforestation(andtheassociatedemissionsandlossofbiodiversity),thevoluntarycarbonmarketisataturningpoint.2.1ThreekeychallengesthemarketfacesProjectqualityandcredibilityThesupplysiderequiresreformtoensurethatcarboncreditsareatrustworthyrepresentationofrealmitigationaction.Theactionmustalsobeadditional–thatis,itwouldnothavehappenedwithouttheincomefromcarboncredits–andpermanent,anditmustnotresultinadverseeffectswithinoroutsideofitsboundary.EmergingguidancefrominitiativessuchastheIntegrityCouncilfortheVoluntaryCarbonMarket(ICVCM)willbecriticalforbringingthecredibilityneededtoscalethemarketsignificantly.TheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint6BuildingthebusinesscaseandcommitmentforparticipationinatimeofevolvingstandardsOnthedemandside,alackofshort-termurgency,marketimperfectionsandreputationalriskareholdingcorporatesbackfromscalingtheirfundingofclimateactionthroughcarbonmarkets.12Manycorporatesareinawaitingpositionbecauseitissafe.Weneedtomakeitmoreriskytowaitthantoact.Climateactiondirector,technologycompanyAsurveyconductedinthefourthquarterof2022bytheWorldEconomicForuminpartnershipwithBain&Companyshowsthat,whilemorethan90%ofcorporaterespondentstargetnetzeroby2050,lessthan25%oftheserespondentsplantocompensateforanyemissionsbeforeachievingnetzero.Morethan50%oftherespondentshighlightmarketimperfectionsandalackoftransparencyonclimateimpactandqualityasreasonsfortheirinactionandunwillingnesstoparticipateinthevoluntarycarbonmarket.Additionally,respondentsemphasizethereputationalriskofparticipating,withconcernaboutpubliccriticism,includinglegalaction.Leadingcompaniesareinvestingagreatdealoftimeandefforttoensurethequalityandintegrityoftheircarboninvestments,yetalackofstandardsandguidelinesmakes“good”marketparticipationindistinguishablefrominvestmentinlow-qualityprojects.Asaresultofthisuncertainty,retirementofcarboncredits(theactionrepresentingtheclaimoftheattachedclimatebenefit)declinedby3%in2022(from2021)comparedtoanaverageannualgrowthof48%from2019–2021.13TheVoluntaryCarbonMarketIntegrityInitiative(VCMI)seekstointroduceandscaletheuseofnewthresholdstandardsforhigh-qualitycarboncreditstohelpincreasetheintegrityofthemarketsupply.TheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint7ReformrequirementstobuildtransparencyandtrustInadditiontocriticalimprovementsneededinsupplyanddemand,thetransparencyofthemarketurgentlyneedstobeimproved.Recentreportssuggestthatinsomecasessignificantsharesofend-usercostsdonotreachtheprojectsandcommunitiesthatsoacutelyneedfinancialsupport.14Thereareimportantopportunitiesformarketreformthatwouldincreasetransparencyandensurethatmarketcapitalflowstowhereitshould.Globalstandardsandintegritybodiescouldplayavitalroleindefiningnormsforandinstillingconfidenceintheuseofcredits.AreportbytheUN-commissionedHigh-LevelExpertGrouponCredibleNet-ZeroClaimsforNon-StateActorssupportsglobalstandardization–forexample,throughstandardizedreportingformatsandaglobaldatabase.15Additionally,consensusonlegaldefinitionsoftermssuchas“netzero”and“carbonneutral”couldprovideclearguidanceandconfidencetoactorsgenuinelytryingtocreatepositiveclimateimpacts,whilereducingopportunitiesforcompaniestryingtoavoidmeaningful,difficultactionsthatmisleadconsumersandinvestors.TheneedfordirectregulationofVCMsislikelytobecomeespeciallyimportantastheboundariesbetweenvoluntarycarbonmarkets,compliancecarbonmarketsandsovereigncarboncreditmechanismsunderArticle6oftheParisAgreementincreasinglyblur.Thedesignofmuch-neededregulatoryregimescanprovideupfrontclarityastohowandunderwhatconditionsVCMscanbeused.TherecentintroductionoftheSingaporecarbontaxmechanismisanexampleworthyoffurtherassessment.LackofurgencygivenlimitedbeneﬁtLimitedrecognitionfromregulatorybodiesresultinginlackofurgencytopurchasecreditsMajorityofsurveyrespondentsdonothaveanear-termclimateambitionthatinvolvestheuseofcarboncreditsClimateAmbition-Forecast%ofrespondents~55%0100(~20%)Netzero/carbonneutral(~90%)20252050MarketimperfectionsMarketimperfectionsleadingtohighbarriertoentry…ofrespondentshighlightlackoftransparencyinthemarket~55%…ofrespondentsﬂagvaryingqualitydeﬁnitionsofcarboncredits~50%…ofrespondentsmentioncomplexlandscapeofstandardsWeneedtohaveeasyaccesstomoredetailedinformationonprojects(preciseimpactoncommunityandbiodiversity)andbeabletomonitortheactualimpactovertime.Globalclimatelead,manufacturingcompany~40%ReputationalriskofparticipatingPotentialforpubliccriticismcreatingconcernforreputationalrisk…ofrespondentsareconcernedaboutreputationalriskCommunicationaroundcarboncreditsishighlyrisky–thereiscurrentlyaclassactionintheUSforoneofourcompetitorbrands.Generalcounsel,consumergoodscompanyVoluntarycarbonmarketsarenotendorsedbySBTi,sowhywouldwebuycarboncredits?Chiefsustainabilityandinnovationofﬁcer,manufacturingcompany50Lackofurgency,marketimperfectionsandreputationalriskareholdingcorporatesbackFIGURE2Note:Surveyquestionsthisdataisbasedon:“Hasyourcompanypledgedtobefullynetzeroby2050orsooner?”(n=137);“Doesyourcompanyclaim‘carbonneutrality’(oranequivalentterm)beforereachingnetzero?”(n=130);“Whicharethecomplexitiesthatyouface/foreseeonyourengagementwithvoluntarycarbonmarkets?”(n=127).Source:VoluntaryCarbonMarketsSurvey(n=137);VoluntaryCarbonMarketinterviewsTheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint8Fivekeyrecommendationstoscaleresponsibleengagementinthecarbonmarket3Tobringthemarkettoitsfullpotentialandaccelerateclimateaction,widerprivate-sectorparticipationwithcrediblenear-termdecarbonizationplansisneeded.Companiesshouldstepupandcommittomeaningfulprocurement(orgeneration)andsubsequentretirementofhigh-qualitycarboncreditsthatsupporttheenvironmentalandsocietalbenefitsbeyondtheirvaluechain.Tohelpscalemeaningfulclimateactionusingcarbonmarkets,itisrecommendedthatclimateleadersfollowfivecriticalsteps.Step1:Setadecarbonizationpathwayalignedwithscientificrecommendationstoensuredemand-sidecredibilityintheuseofcarboncreditsCompanieswithcrediblenear-termdecarbonizationplansneedtocommunicatehowoffsetswillbeintegratedintothosedecarbonizationplansandwillcomplement,notreplace,directcarbonabatement.Step2:Acknowledgetheurgencyofprotectingnaturalcarbonsinksandotherhigh-integritycommunity-basedprojectsCompaniesshouldintegratetheirnatureandclimatestrategiesintothecoreoftheirdecarbonizationefforts.Doingsoisaneconomicallyrationalleverforanychiefexecutiveofficerorboardthatcanbepartofabroadernature-positivesustainabilityendeavour,whiledeliveringonothergoalssuchasbiodiversityandcommunitydevelopment.Step3:Adoptandscaleleadingstandardsandpracticescriticaltoimprovingqualityandestablishingcredibilityofcorporatecredituse(e.g.theICVCMortheVCMI)Thereisneedforcommonglobalstandardsandmoreindependentthird-partyverifierstoprovidecertaintyaboutcarboncreditsandtheiruse.Yettheslowpaceatwhichstandardsareevolvingandprojectsarecertifiedhasconstrainedstakeholders’abilitytorespond.Thiscouldpushsomecompaniestoseeknewstandards,whichconsequentlyleadsLeadershipwillbecriticalindrivingthevoluntarycarbonmarketintoitsnextchapter.TheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint9tomarketfragmentation.Marketinfrastructureneedstobecredibleandquicklyscalabletowork.Step4:Createmarkettransparencythroughcorporatedisclosuresonclimateandnatureimpact,projecttypes,pricingandtransactioncostsandflowsLackoftransparencyofcapitalandcreditflowscreatesuncertaintyabouttheactualimpactofthemarket.Participantsneedtofindtherightapproachtodisclosureandcompliancethatallowsscalingandinnovation,whichmayincludenon-identifiabledisclosureaggregation,beingmoreprescriptiveintheirsourcingstrategies,usingindependentratingsandtappingnewtechnology-basedsolutionssuchasmeasurement,reportingandverification(MRV).Step5:AmplifycorporatecommitmentstoimmediateparticipationatscalethroughcollectiveactiontoestablishcredibilitywhilesignallingdemandtothemarketAcollectiveapproachthatalignsoncrediblestrategiesandfocusesonthehighest-qualitycreditscanmitigatetheriskofperceivedgreenwashing.Itsendsastrongsignalofsupportforclimateactionbeyondvaluechains,whichputscorporatesonthefrontfootwiththeirclimatechangestrategies.Thishelpstoencouragemoremarketparticipationandcreatescleardemandsignals.Itwilltakeyearsforthemarketandstandardstomature,soindustry-specificalignmentisneededtoagreeontherightdirectionwhilemeetingtheimperativeforindividualandcollectiveclimateactiontoday.StronguptakeandtrustinVCMsLimitedtractioninVCMs0.2Gt2.6GtCurrent2030potentialscenariosProgressiveenhancementsinVCMsVCMimpactpotential(inCO2e)Setadecarbonizationpathwayalignedwithscientiﬁcrecommendationstoensuredemand-sidecredibilityintheuseofcarboncredits01Acknowledgetheurgencyofprotectingnaturalcarbonsinksandotherhigh-integritycommunitybasedprojects02Adoptandscaleleadingstandardsandpracticescriticaltoimprovingqualityandestablishingcredibilityofcorporatecredituse(e.g.theICVCMortheVCMI)03Createmarkettransparencythroughcorporatedisclosuresonclimateandnatureimpact,projecttypes,pricingandtransactioncostsandﬂows04Amplifycorporatecommitmentstoimmediateparticipationatscalethroughcollectiveactiontoestablishcredibilitywhilesignallingdemandtothemarket05FiveactionstodrivemeaningfulparticipationinthevoluntarycarbonmarketFIGURE3Source:VoluntaryCarbonMarketsSurvey(n=137);VoluntaryCarbonMarketinterviews;Bain&Companydatabase;Net-ZeroTracker;Refinitiv;CDP;IEA;EnerData;WorldBankCarbonPricingDashboard;Bain&CompanyanalysisTheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint10Buildingandevolvingthecreditportfolioovertime4Toachievenetzero,companieswillneedtheirownstrategiestomoveforward,onesthatfittheirobjectivesforclimate,natureandwidersustainability.Bestpracticesandprinciplesareemergingthatofferguidanceforcorporateactionandportfolioconstruction.TheOxfordPrinciplesforNetZeroAlignedCarbonOffsettingprovidesoneexampleofatargetedportfolioforcarboncreditprocurementaftercommittingtodecarbonizationalignedwithscience-basedpathways.16Astrategyencompassingcollectiveactionbyindustryvaluechain,aportfolioapproachtosourcingcarboncreditsandclearcommunicationofacompany’sactionconstitutesaviablepathway.Ittapsthemosteconomicalsourcesforcarbonoffsettingtoday(nature),supportsindustryinvestmentatscaleviacommonpracticesandprogressivelyinvestsinemergingcarbonremovaltechnologyovertime.–Intheshortterm,corporatesshouldseekhigh-qualitycreditswithshort-livedstoragelikethosefromnatureconservationandrestoration.Thesechannelmuch-neededfundsintopreservingnaturalcarbonstocksbyavoidingemissions,reducingemissionsandremovingcarbon.Indoingso,theyshouldfocusonprojectsthatmaximizeco-benefits,focusingonnatural,biodiverseecosystemsofdomesticspecies(notmonocultureplantations)withadditionalbenefitsforlocalcommunities.–Inthemidtolongterm,corporatesshouldgraduallyshifttofinancingcarbondioxideremovals(CDR)withlong-termstorage.ThetechnologiesforthisincludeDirectAirCarbonCaptureandStorage(DACCS),BioenergywithCarbonCaptureandStorage(BECCS),BiomasswithCarbonRemovalandStorage(BiCRS)andenhancedweathering.Engineeredandnature-basedcarbonremovalcreditsshouldconstitutethemajorityofcarbonportfoliosafter2040.17TheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint11Tonavigatethemoreimmediatefuture,therecommendationsoutlinedinthispapersuggestapointofdepartureforcorporatestousethevoluntarycarbonmarketwell.Widerdialogueisplannedtoshapeanagendaforcollectiveactionin2023andprovideoptimalpathwaysforcompaniestofollow.Whatcananet-zero-alignedcarboncreditportfoliolooklike?FIGURE4Nature-basedavoidanceIllustrative/indicativeNet-zero-alignedcarboncreditsportfolioBestpracticeinthreesteps%breakdownofcarboncreditportfolioovertime11Nature-basedremoval2Engineeredremoval3Cutemissionsand,intheshortterm,usehigh-qualityavoidancecreditsfromnatureconservation2Shifttheportfoliotowardsnature-basedremoval,e.g.reforestation3Removecarbonfromatmosphereusingengineeredsolutions0%20%40%60%80%100%2020203020402050Source:BasedonTheOxfordPrinciplesforNetZeroAlignedCarbonOffsettingTheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint12ContributorsWorldEconomicForumAntoniaGawelHead,ClimateChange;MemberoftheExecutiveCommittee,WorldEconomicForum,SwitzerlandNasimPourLead,CarbonRemovalsandMarketInnovation,WorldEconomicForum,SwitzerlandBain&CompanyClaudiaBrechenmacherSeniorManager,Bain&Company,SingaporeDaleHardcastleHeadofCarbonMarkets,Bain&Company,SingaporeHenningHuentelerExpertAssociatePartner,Bain&Company,TheNetherlandsAnnSimlSeniorManager,Bain&Company,UnitedKingdomTheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint131.IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),SixthAssessmentReport:ClimateChange2022:MitigationofClimateChange,2022:https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2022/06/SBSTA_IPCC_WGIIIPresentation.pdf.2.IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,ClimateChange2022,MitigationofClimateChange,2022:https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SPM.pdf.3.WorldEconomicForum,ForestsforClimate:ScalingupForestConservationtoReachNetZero,2022:https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Forests_for_Climate_2022.pdf.4.Beare,Peter,“NaturalClimateSolutionsandHumanRights”,WBCSD,30January2019:https://www.wbcsd.org/Overview/News-Insights/WBCSD-insights/Natural-Climate-Solutions-and-Human-Rights.5.TheWorldBank,“ForestandTerrestrialEcosystems(Landscapes)”:https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/forests.6.WWF,“TropicalRainforests”:https://wwf.panda.org/discover/our_focus/forests_practice/importance_forests/tropical_rainforest.7.ScienceBasedTargets,FoundationsforScience-BasedNet-ZeroTargetSettingintheCorporateSector,2020:https://sciencebasedtargets.org/resources/files/foundations-for-net-zero-executive-summary.pdf;TheUnitedNations’High-LevelExpertGroupontheNetZeroEmissionsCommitmentsofNon-StateEntities,IntegrityMatters:NetZeroCommitmentsbyBusinesses,FinancialInstitutions,CitiesandRegions,2022:https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/high-level_expert_group_n7b.pdf.8.TroveResearch,“TroveResearch3Q22VoluntaryCarbonMarketWebinar”,YouTube,27October2022:https://youtu.be/Wi9uVW4DwKE?t=808.9.IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),SixthAssessmentReport:HeadlineStatementsfromtheSummaryforPolicymakers,4April2022:https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_HeadlineStatements.pdf.10.Bain&Companyanalysis.11.TroveResearch,“TroveResearch3Q22VoluntaryCarbonMarketWebinar”,YouTube,27October2022:https://youtu.be/Wi9uVW4DwKE?t=808.12.Bain&Companyanalysis.13.Verra,VerraRegistry,2022:https://registry.verra.org/.14.Hodgson,Camilla,“SurgeofInvestmentintoCarbonCreditsCreatesBoomTimeforBrokers”,FinancialTimes,2May2022:https://www.ft.com/content/739a5517-4de6-43f7-ae47-1ce8d4774d50;DeHaldevang,Max,“BPPaidRuralMexicansa‘Pittance’forWallStreet’sFavoriteClimateSolution”,Bloomberg,27June2022:https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2022-carbon-offset-credits-mexico-forest-bp/?leadSource=uverify%20wall.15.TheUnitedNations’High-LevelExpertGroupontheNetZeroEmissionsCommitmentsofNon-StateEntities,IntegrityMatters:NetZeroCommitmentsbyBusinesses,FinancialInstitutions,CitiesandRegions,November2022:https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/high-level_expert_group_n7b.pdf.16.Allen,Myles,KayaAxelsson,BenCaldecott,etal.,TheOxfordPrinciplesforNetZeroAlignedCarbonOffsetting,September2020:https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-01/Oxford-Offsetting-Principles-2020.pdf.17.Ibid.EndnotesTheVoluntaryCarbonMarket:ClimateFinanceatanInflectionPoint14WorldEconomicForum91–93routedelaCapiteCH-1223Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:+41(0)228691212Fax:+41(0)227862744contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.orgTheWorldEconomicForum,committedtoimprovingthestateoftheworld,istheInternationalOrganizationforPublic-PrivateCooperation.TheForumengagestheforemostpolitical,businessandotherleadersofsocietytoshapeglobal,regionalandindustryagendas.

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