DecarbonizingMedium-&Heavy-DutyOn-RoadVehicles:Zero-EmissionVehiclesCostAnalysisCatherineLedna,MatteoMuratori,ArthurYip,PaigeJadun,andChrisHoehneMarch2022NREL2ExecutiveSummary•Withcontinuedimprovementsinvehicleandfueltechnologies(inlinewithU.S.DepartmentofEnergytargetsandvettedwithindustry),zero-emissionvehicles(ZEVs)canreachtotal-cost-of-drivingparitywithconventionaldieselvehiclesby2035forallmedium-andheavy-duty(MD/HD)vehicleclasses(withoutincentives).•Assumingeconomicsdriveadoption,ZEVsalescouldreach42%ofallMD/HDtrucksby2030,reflectinglowercombinedvehiclepurchaseandoperatingcosts(usingreal-worldpaybackperiods).•Inthisscenario,ZEVsalesreach>99%by2045,and80%oftheMD/HDstocktransitionstoZEVsby2050,reducingCO2emissionsby69%from2019.•Twotechnologicalsolutions—batteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)andfuelcellelectricvehicles(FCEVs)—areviableinmultiplemarketsegments,offeringalternativepathwaysfordecarbonization.–BEVstendtobecomecost-competitiveforsmallertrucksbefore2030andforshort-haul(<500-mile)heavytrucksbefore2035.–HydrogenFCEVstendtobecomecost-competitiveforlong-haul(>500-mile)heavytrucksby2035.NREL3ExecutiveSummary(cont.)•Thisstudylooksatthreedifferentvehicleclassesandeightdifferentusecases/drivingdistances.ZEVadoptionismorerapidinlighterandshorter-distancevehicles,whichalsotendtobecentrallyfueled,reducinginfrastructurerisk.–Basedonexternalstudies,busesareassumedtofullytransitiontoZEVby2030(100%sales).•Sinceeconomicsaremorelikelytodriveadoptioninbusinessapplications,especiallyinlargercompanies,itispossiblethatdemandforZEVscouldriserapidlyinMD/HDtrucksoncecostparityisreached.Manufacturingcapacityandcharging/refuelinginfrastructurewillneedtoincreasecommensuratelytosupportvehicleadoption.•Operatingcostsavingsareacriticalfactor,especiallyforheavylong-haultrucks,soresultsarehighlysensitivetoassumedfuelprices(bothfornewtechnologiesandforexistingdieselfuels).Energymanagementtechniques,proactiveutilityandcleanfuelinvestmentplanning,andassociatedpoliciesareneededtolowerfinalenergycosts.•Resultsarealsoverysensitivetotechnologyimprovementtrajectories,adoptiondecision-making,anduncertainassumptionsaboutfuturefreightdemand,logistics,andvehicleuse.NREL4Intro&Scope1Approach&KeyAssumptions2System-LevelPerspective:MarketSegmentation3CostParityAnalysis4KeyResults5SupplementalSlides:MethodsandAssumptions6Sensitivities7Content&OrganizationINTRO&SCOPENREL6IntroandScope•Achievinganet-zeroemissioneconomyby2050requiresaggressivecurbingoftransportationemissions.•Medium-andheavy-dutyvehicles(MHDVs)arethesecondlargestcontributortotransportationemissions(21%).oMajorsourceoflocalairpollutiondisproportionallyaffectingdisadvantagedcommunities.oWeconsiderallon-roadvehicles>10,000lbs.(freightandnon-freighttrucks,buses).•Scope:modelpotentialZEVadoptionbasedoneconomics(costofdriving)toinformfeasibledecarbonizationpathways.NREL7MHDVSegmentation•MHDVsincludemultipleapplicationsandusecases,bothintermsofvehiclesizeclassanduse(vehiclemilestraveled[VMT]andrangerequirements).•Heavytrucksuse70%ofenergy(41%ofstock).•Notalltrucksarethesame:differentsizeclassesandusecasesleadtodifferentvehiclerequirementandcosts,determiningopportunityforZEVadoption.•Zero-emissionvehicles(BEVsandFCEVs)offeraviabledecarbonizationpathway.•Whilecommercialdeploymentisstilllimited,therearegrowingopportunitiesastechnologyisadvancingrapidly.•Low-carbonliquidfuelscanalsohelpreduceemissionsfromlegacyvehicles.2019MHDVEmissions(445MMtonCO2)NREL8GoalofthisAnalysisGoal:EconomicanalysisoftheMD/HDtransportationsectorthatidentifiescost-effectiveadoptionopportunitiesforzero-emissionvehiclesbasedontotalcostofdriving.Approach:ModelpotentialZEVadoptionbasedoneconomics(costofdriving):•Leverageextensiveworkoncomponent-levelandvehicletechnologyevolutionovertimeestimatingfuturevehiclecostsandcharacteristics(usedaninputsinthisanalysis).•Leverageandexpandpreviousanalysesthatfocusonsinglevehiclesandhypotheticalusecases(e.g.,fixedVMTforagivenvehicletype)andusetheTransportationEnergy&MobilityPathwayOptions(TEMPO)modelfreightdemandsegmentationtolookatsystem-leveladoptionopportunitiesandemissionsimplications:oRepresentheterogenousvehicleapplicationsbyclass(vehiclesize)anduse(VMT).oPerformacostparityanalysisbasedondiversevehicleusestoinformonreal-worldmarketopportunitiesfordifferentvehicleclassesandusecases.oEstimateenergyuseandemissionsovertimefortheentireMHDVstock.APPROACH&KEYASSUMPTIONSNREL10TEMPOmodelsalldomesticpassengerandfreighttraveldemandacrossalltravelmodesandprojectstheirevolutionovertimetogeneratepossibletransformationscenarios.•Populationandeconomicgrowthdriveincreaseddemandformobilityovertime.•55%growthintotalMD/HDtruckVMTbetween2019and2050(alignedwithAnnualEnergyOutlook[AEO]1).WhatisTEMPO?TheTransportationEnergy&MobilityPathwayOptions(TEMPOTM)modelisacomprehensivetransportationdemandmacromodeltoexplorelong-termscenariosofenergyuseacrossalltransportationsegmentsandtointegratewithlarge,multisectoralstudies.Moredetails:Muratorietal.,2021.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.1029671U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration.2019.AnnualEnergyOutlook2019.https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/.NREL11MD/HDRepresentationThreeVehicleClassesLight-Medium(Class3)10,000–14,000lbs.UptoEightShipmentDistanceBins0–99miles500–749milesShipmentdistancebinsfromFAFandVIUSdatarepresentdifferentapplicationsandvehicleuse(e.g.,short-haulandlong-haul).Sixtechnologiesineachvehicleclass(ICEV,HEV,FCEV,andthreeBEVranges).Freightdemand(VMT)byclassfromAEO.Medium(Class4–6)14,000–26,000lbs.Heavy(Class7–8)26,000+lbs.100–249miles250–499miles750–999miles1,000–1,499miles1,500–1,999miles2,000+milesMultipleVehicleApplicationsFreighttrucks(activitybasedonFAF)Non-freighttrucks(followactivityin0–249-milebins)Freightandnon-freightstockandactivitybasedonanalysisofVIUS,FAF,andAEO.61%stock;74%VMT39%stock;26%VMTBusesarealsoincludedanddescribedhere.FAF:FreightAnalysisFrameworkHEV:hybridelectricvehicleICEV:internalcombustionenginevehicleVIUS:VehicleInventoryandUseSurveyAEO:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration.2019.AnnualEnergyOutlook2019.https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/.FAF:FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),2019.FreightAnalysisFramework-2017.https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/faf/.VIUS:U.S.CensusBureau(USCB),2004.VehicleInventoryandUseSurvey(VIUS).Retrievedfromhttps://www.census.gov/library/publications/2002/econ/census/vehicle-inventory-and-use-survey.html.NREL12DriversofVehicleAdoptionVehicleadoptioninTEMPOisdeterminedbytotalcostofdriving(TCD):oUpfrontvehiclecost(manufacturer'ssuggestedretailprice[MSRP])oFuelcosts(vehiclefueleconomyandfuelprice)oMaintenancecostsoVehicleusage(VMT)oFinancialhorizonconsidered(ordiscountrate)oMonetizedchargingtimecostforBEVs(chargingavailabilityandspeed)oLogitformulation–capturesheterogeneities.LowestTCDcapturesgreatestmarketshare.Nonfinancialfactorslikeavailabilityofmake/models,driverpreferences,manufacturingorinfrastructureconstraints,andotherexternaldriversofadoptionarenotconsidered.Resalevalueisnotconsidered.ExampleofaZEVreachingcostparitywithICEVCostparity=ZEVreachesbreakevenwithinassumedfinancialhorizon(despitehighervehiclecost,thankstoloweroperationalcosts)NREL13KeyAssumptions•Zero-emissionvehicletechnologies(BEV,FCEV):MSRPandfueleconomyimprovingovertime,inlinewithDOEprojectionsandvettedwithindustry:oBatteries:$80/kWh(packlevel)in2035and$50/kWhin2050(seebatteryandfuelcellassumptions)oFuelCells:$80/kWin2035and$60/kWin2050(seebatteryandfuelcellassumptions)oConventionalICEVfueleconomyisassumedtoimproveby32%–37%acrossvehicleclassesby2050(seedetails).•Zero-emissioninfrastructureandfuels(seefuelpricetrajectories):oBEVchargingisassumedtobecomeprogressivelyavailableasBEVsareadoptedoBEVaveragechargingpricereaches$0.18/kWhby2030andisheldconstantthrough2050oFCEVfuelingisassumedtophaseinandbefullyavailableby2040oHydrogenaveragerefuelingpricereaches$4/kgby2035andisheldconstantthrough2050oResultsforalternativefuelpriceassumptionsavailableinsensitivityscenarioshere.•Beyondtechnologyadvancements,howwethinkabouttheinvestmentsandthefinancialhorizonconsideredwhenadoptingtransportationtechnologiescanhaveasubstantialimpactoncostofdriving:o3–5yearsfinancialhorizonconsideredwhendeterminingcostparityforZEVs(seedetails).Additionalsavingscanbeaccruedoverovervehiclelifetimebutareassumedtonotimpactadoptiondecisions.NREL14KeyUncertaintiesThefollowingparametersarehighlyuncertainandsignificantlyaffectmodeloutcomesandtrade-offsbetweendifferenttechnologies(seesensitivities):•Fuelcostevolution(diesel,electricity,andespeciallyhydrogen)andinfrastructureutilization.•Vehiclecostsandfueleconomy.•Financialhorizon–yearsofincrementalcostsavingsconsideredbyfleetownerswhenmakingpurchasedecisions;maybedifferentfordifferentusecases.•Vehicleadoptiondecisions–theassumptionthatfleetswillmakedecisionsbasedontangibleeconomicconsiderations,versusotherharder-to-quantifyfactorslikedecarbonizationpledges.•Futurefreightdemandgrowth,stockturnover,andfreightlogisticsincludingtruckoperationsandtripdistancedistributions.oChargingspeedandvalueofchargingtimeforBEVsarealsouncertain.•Limiteddatafornon-freightuses(26%ofVMT,hereassumedtoreachcostparityinlinewithshort-distancefreighttrucks).SYSTEM-LEVELPERSPECTIVE:MARKETSEGMENTATIONNREL162019MHDVEmissionsTEMPOMHDVmarketsegmentation:•Freightdemand(ton-milesin2017)fromFAF,segmentedbyshipmentdistancebin.•FreightdemandgrowthovertimefromAEO(+55%by2050).•TotalVMTbyvehiclesizeclassfromAEO.•LoadfactorsbyvehicleclassfromVIUS.•VehicleusebydistancebinderivedfromFAF-VIUSsynthesis.•TotalvehiclestockbasedonAEOandseparatedintoshipmentdistancesusingFAFandVIUS.•Vehiclesales:estimatedendogenouslyinTEMPOwithtechmixbasedonTCD.•VehiclefueleconomyfromAEO(2017)andfutureprojectionsvarybyscenario.2019MHDVEmissions(445MMtonCO2)NREL172019MHDVStock•Stockandsalessharesarenotnecessarilyproportionaltocontributionstoemissions,duetowidedisparitiesinVMTandfueleconomy.•Heavytrucksare~40%oftotalvehiclestockbutareresponsibleforabout70%ofemissionsduetolowerfueleconomyandgreaterVMT.•Fortrucks,2019totalstockisbasedonAEOandseparatedintoshipmentdistancesusingFAFandVIUS.•BusstockisestimatedfromAEOpassenger-milestraveled(PMT).2019MHDVStock(13Mvehicles)COSTPARITYANALYSISNREL19CostParitybyDistanceBinLight-MediumTrucksVehicleSalesEnergyShare35%11%EnergyShare10%DifferentfreightdistancebinsimpactvehicleVMTandTCD,inturnaffectingwhenZEVsreachcostparityBEV-150reachcostparityfor100–249-mileusesin2026BEV-150reachcostparityfor0–99-mileusesin2028(lowerVMT)FCEVreachcostparityin2032,BEV-500in2035(highchargingcosts)EnergyShare26,00026,00056,00012,000AverageAnnualVMTYearZEVsReachCostParityShipmentDistanceBin[miles]0-99100-249250-499500-7490%10%1%0%NREL20•TwoZEVtechsolutionsandpathwaysformanyapplicationsprovidemoreoptionsandmitigaterisks.oBEVsachievecostparitywithICEVsbefore2035ineverydistancebin.•>99%ZEVsalesby2035orearliero2050stock:75%BEV,11%FCEV,14%ICEV(2050sales:88%BEV;12%FCEV).VehicleSalesEnergyShare35%11%EnergyShare26,00026,00056,00012,000AverageAnnualVMTYearZEVsReachCostParityShipmentDistanceBin[miles]0-99100-249250-499500-7490%10%1%0%3-yearfinancialhorizonCostParitybyDistanceBinLight-MediumTrucksNREL21•ZEVsachievecostparitywithICEVsbefore2035ineverydistancebin.TwoZEVtechsolutionsandpathwaysformanyapplicationsprovidemoreoptionsandmitigaterisks.•99%ZEVsalesby2046o2050stock:66%BEV,16%FCEV,18%ICEV(2050sales:82%BEV;18%FCEV,0%ICEV).VehicleSalesEnergyShare25%15%46,00046,00060,00064,00011,000EnergyShareAverageAnnualVMTYearZEVsReachCostParityShipmentDistanceBin[miles]10%3%1%1%0-99100-249250-499500-749750-9990%EnergyShareYearZEVsReachCostParity4-yearfinancialhorizonCostParitybyDistanceBinMediumTrucksNREL22•ZEVsachievecostparitywithICEVsby2035ineverydistancebin.TwoZEVtechsolutionsandpathwaysformanyapplicationsprovidemoreoptionsandmitigaterisks.•>99%ZEVsalesby2042.Shorter-distancebinsdominatedbyBEVs;longerbinsdominatedbyFCEVs.o2050stock:56%BEV,16%FCEV,28%ICEV(2050sales:78%BEV;22%FCEV).o2050ton-miles:35%BEV;34%FCEV;30%ICEV.VehicleSalesEnergyShare40%73%143,00084,00093,00068,000<10,000150,000153,000206,000EnergyShareYearZEVsReachCostParityAverageAnnualVMT9%15%16%10%6%8%4%6%1000-14990-99100-249250-499500-749750-9991500-20002000+ShipmentDistanceBin[miles]5-yearfinancialhorizonCostParitybyDistanceBinHeavyTrucksNREL23ImpactofFuelPricesLowestCostTechnology,2035,HeavyTrucks,$4/galdiesel•Inlong-distancebins,FCEVsdominateevenforlowelectricitypricesifhydrogenpricesarebelow$4–$5/kgandcharging<1MW.Effectof1-MWchargingvariesdependingondailydrivingdistance,therangeofBEVscompetingineachshipmentdistance,andassumptionsaboutmonetizedchargingtime.•Fuelpricesarehighlyuncertainandcharging/refuelingsolutionswillhavecoststhatvarybyregionandovertime.•Centralassumptionsareclosetoseparationline:multipleZEVpathways.Chargingspeedisalsouncertainandwillvarybylocation(e.g.,depotorpublic)andvehicle.•Otherfactorsmayinfluencemarginalbehavior,resultinginlessabrupttransitionsbetweentechnologies.•BEVstendtooutcompeteFCEVsonaTCDbasisatlowershipmentdistances,higherchargingspeeds,andlowerelectricityprices.1000kW500kW1000kW500kW500kW1000kWReddot:centralassumptionKEYRESULTSNREL25TruckSales•Totallight-mediumandmediumsalesgrowsubstantiallyfrom2020to2050(duetoassumedtotalVMTgrowth).•Acrossallmodes(andtraveldistancebins),42%ZEVsalesareachievedby2030,98%by2040,and100%by2046.o2030salesshares:40%BEV;2%FCEV.o2050salesshares:83%BEV;17%FCEV.•Shorter-distancebinsaredominatedbyshort-tomid-rangeBEVs,whilelonger-distancebinsaredominatedbylong-rangeBEVsandFCEVs.VehicleSalesEnergyShareShort-HaulLong-HaulShort-HaulLong-HaulLight-Medium35%0%11%0%Medium24%1%13%2%Heavy32%8%23%50%ShipmentDistanceoSeesensitivityforeffectsofdifferentassumptions:e.g.,BEVscanreplaceFCEVsinlonger-distancebinsifH2priceis$6/kgorelectricitypriceis$0.12/kWh.NREL26TruckStock•Vehiclestockturnoverhindersemissionsreductionpotential.oTargetedadoptioncanmagnifyimpact—9%ofthevehiclestockisresponsiblefor51%ofallenergyconsumption.•ZEVstockreaches7%ofthefleetby2030,49%by2040,and80%by2050(66%BEV;14%FCEV).•DespiteearlygrowthinemissionsduetoVMTgrowth,emissionsrelativeto2019declineafter2030,reaching32%reductionby2040and69%in2050.VehicleStockEnergyShareShort-HaulLong-HaulShort-HaulLong-HaulLight-Medium29%0%11%0%Medium26%1%13%2%Heavy34%9%23%50%ShipmentDistanceNREL27BusElectrificationandEmissionImplications•Busesare1%oftotaltransportationemissionsin2019and5%ofMHDV.•Electrifyingbusesisalreadycost-competitiveincertaincontextsonaTCDbasisdependingonvehicleandfuelpricesanddrivingrequirements(andthereismajorpolicysupportforrapidbuselectrification).oBEVsalreadycost-competitiveinsomeapplicationsandby2032projectedtobewellbelowTCOofdiesel.1oFCEVbusesmaybecompetitivewithdieselatfuelcellcostsbelow$125/kWandhydrogenpricesof$5/kg,consideringa5-yearfinancialhorizon.2•WeassumefulltransitiontoZEVby2030,and20-yearlife:>99%ofbusservice(pass-miles)servedbyZEVsin2050,reducingbusemissionsby>99%comparedto2019.1Blynn&Attanucci.2019.https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981198421172Burke,A.,&Sinha,A.2020.http://dx.doi.org/10.7922/G2H993FJBusTailpipeEmissionsNREL28MHDVEnergyConsumptionandEmissions•MD/HDemissionsdeclineby69%in2050relativeto2019,despite55%freightdemand(VMT)growth.oBEVelectricityconsumption(includingbuses)is15TWhin2030,127TWhin2040,and227TWhin2050.oHydrogendemandis0.1MMT(2.8TWh)in2030,3.2MMT(171TWh)in2040,and7.8MMT(399TWh)in2050.1oLiquidfueldemandis44.1billiongallonsin2030,29.3billiongallonsin2040,and13.5billiongallonsin2050(2019biodieselconsumptionof~2billiongallonsisheldconstantovertime).•Low-carbonfuels(notmodeled)canfurtherreduceremainingemissions.MHDVTailpipeEmissionsandEnergyConsumptions1ElectrolyzerefficiencyfromHunteretal.,2021.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.06.018.NREL29ImpactofSegment-SpecificVehicleAdoption•EmissionsandenergystronglydependonwhichclassesandapplicationstransitiontoZEV,ontopofthetotalnumberofZEVs:oFueleconomiesvarygreatlyacrossbothvehicleclassesandpowertrains.oVehicleswithinaclassaredrivendifferently,dependingontheirshipmentdistancebin.•MostBEVsareusedinshort-haullight-mediumandmediumapplications,whichhavehigherfueleconomy.•FCEVsareusedsubstantiallyinheavylong-haulapplications,whichhavethegreatestVMTandlowerfueleconomy,increasingtheiroverallenergysharerelativetotheirstock.•ICEVsarealsousedsubstantiallyinheavyandlong-haulapplications.ICEVsoverallhavethelowestfueleconomy.Acrossallclassesandapplications,ICEVsrepresent20%ofstockin2050butoverhalfofenergyconsumption.NREL30KeyTakeaways•Improvementsinzero-emissionvehicletechnologies(BEVandFCEV)andfuelsinlinewithDOEtargets(andvettedwithindustry)enableZEVstoachievecostparitywithdieselby2035.TwoZEVtechsolutionsandpathwaysformanyapplicationsprovidemoreoptionsandmitigaterisks:oBEVstendtobecomecost-competitiveforalmostalllight-mediumandmediumtrucksbefore2030andforshort-haul(<500-mile)heavytrucksbefore2035.oHydrogenFCEVstendtobecomecost-competitiveforlong-haul(>500-mile)heavytrucksby2035.oBusescanfullytransitiontoZEV(100%sales)by2030.•Assumingcharging/refuelinginfrastructureisdeployedtosupportZEVadoption,theseenableZEVsalestoreach42%by2030and>99%oftheMHDVmarketby2045,demonstratingtheviabilityof2030/2035ZEVtargetsforMHDVs.•Despite55%growthinprojectedfreightdemand(VMT),2050CO2emissionscanbereducedby69%comparedto2019andkeepdroppinginthefollowingdecade.However,notalldieselvehiclesarereplacedby2050,withtheremainingvehiclesconsuming13.5billiongallonsofliquidfuels.o80%truckstockareZEVin2050(66%BEV,14%FCEV).AcceleratedstockturnovercouldhelptoincreaseZEVpenetrationin2050.100%busstockisBEVby2050.oLow-carbonliquidfuelscanhelpfurtherreduceemissionsbutarenotcapturedhere.NREL31FutureAnalysisNeeds•Quantifyneedsandabilityformanufacturingcapacityscale-upandrequiredupgradesofgridinfrastructure(bulk-poweranddistributionsystems).•ValidateconsistentretailpricesfordepotandpublicBEVchargingandhydrogenfuelingconsideringafullydecarbonizedpowersystem.•Broadertransportationmarketeffectsassociatedwithsupplychainanddemanddisruptions/shiftsincludingnewbusinessmodels(e.g.,e-commerce)andpossiblechangesinlogisticsandvehicleoperationsdrivenbyZEVtechnologies.•Incorporateanalysisofco-benefitsofZEVadoption,includingcriteriapollutantemissionsreductionsandhealthimpacts.•ExploredynamicsofZEVtransition,includingco-evolutionofvehicleandinfrastructuremarkets.•Expanddatacollectioneffortstoimproveassumptions.•Improverepresentationofnon-freightapplicationsandvehicleuse(non-freighttrucksandbuses)anddeterminantsofadoption.•Incorporaterepresentationofadoptiondynamicsintheusedvehiclemarketandapplicationsforoldervehicles.www.nrel.govNRELisanationallaboratoryoftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy,operatedbytheAllianceforSustainableEnergy,LLC.Thankyou!Matteo.Muratori@nrel.govThisworkwasauthoredbytheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL).NRELisanationallaboratoryoftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy,operatedbytheAllianceforSustainableEnergy,LLC.underContractNo.DE-AC36-08GO28308.TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsaloneanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheDOEortheU.S.Government.TheauthorswouldliketothankthefollowingNRELexpertsforreviewingresultsandprovidingfeedback:AliciaBirky,ChrisGearhart,JohnFarrell,KeithWipke,KennethKelly,MargaretMann,andJohneyGreen.TheauthorswouldalsoliketothankthefollowingDOEexpertsforprovidinginputdataandhelpwithreviewingandmessagingresults:MichaelBerube,KaraPodkaminer,NehaRustagi,MarcMelaina,JacobWard,RaphaelIsaac,JayFitzgerald,ZiaHaq,andNoelCrisostomo.WealsothankMikeRoethandPickMihelic(NACFE)forusefuldiscussions.Finally,theauthorswouldliketothanktheTEMPOsteeringcommitteemembersfortheirinvaluablesupport,suggestions,andrecommendationsduringthedevelopmentoftheTEMPOmodel:A.Brown(UCDavis);E.Boyd,Z.Haq,K.Lynn,J.Maples,K.Podkaminer,andN.Rustagi(DOE);A.SchillaandK.Jaw(CARB);B.Chapman(ExxonMobil);D.McCollum(ORNL);D.Arent(NREL);JDavies(DOT);J.Weyant(Stanford);P.Kyle(PNNL);P.Cazzola(ITF);S.Lie(EPA);andY.Fu(Ford).NREL/TP-5400-82081SUPPLEMENTALSLIDESNREL34Scope•TEMPOMD/HDencompassesClass3–8freightvehiclesandbuses(>10,000lbs.GVWR).•FreightvehicleapplicationsaremodeledinTEMPO.TotalVMTbyvehicleclassiscalibratedtoAEO2019,whiledivisionsacrossshipmentdistancearebasedonFAF.•Non-freightvehiclestockandenergy(e.g.,garbagetrucks,cementmixers)areassumedtotransitiontoZEVatthesamerateasfreight,usingVMTandstockassumptionsbasedonAEO.•Non-freightvehiclesaredisaggregatedfromAEOusingfractionsderivedfromVIUS(39%ofstockand26%ofVMTin2019)andmappedtothe0–250-miledistancebinsforeachvehicleclass.•FreightstockandVMTsharesinformnon-freightstockandVMT,implyingthesameturnoverasfreightvehicles.NREL35SummaryofVehicleAdoptionApproachbySegmentMarketSegmentAssumptionMedium-andHeavy-DutyFreightTrucks,AllMarketSegmentsEconomicallycompetedbasedontotalcostofdrivingMedium-andHeavy-DutyNon-FreightTrucksVehicleadoptionanduseassumedtobeidenticaltoshort-haulfreight(250milesorless)BusesSalessharesassumedtoreach100%ZEVby2030METHODSNREL37FreightDemandProjections:VMT•FreightdemandgrowthinTEMPOissetexogenouslytocorrespondtoAEOfreightVMTgrowth.•TotalVMTgrowsby55%between2019and2050.Thegreatestgrowthisseeninlight-mediumandmedium(90%and114%increases,respectively).•UsingloadfactorsfromVIUS,wederiveVMTfromFAFton-miledemandforfreight.•WecomparefreightVMTinTEMPOtoAEO.AEOisdisaggregatedintonon-freight(e.g.,cementmixers/garbagetrucks)andfreightactivityusingfractionsbasedonVIUS.•TEMPOandAEOmatchcloselyonfreightVMT.TotalVMT(dashedlines;non-freight+freight)andfreightVMT(solidlines),AEOandTEMPOMD/HDtrucks.Non-freightVMTisassumedtofollowthesameenergyevolutionasfreight.MD/HDTruckVMT,TEMPOandAEONREL38FreightMode/TechChoiceTEMPOrepresentstravelchoiceacrossfreightbins.Modeandtechnologychoicevarieswithaverageshipmentdistance.Formedium-andheavy-dutytrucks,totaldemandbydistanceisinformedbyFAF,withsplitsacrossvehicleclassinformedbyVIUS.NREL39•~10%ofheavy-dutytruckshaveanoperatingrangeof500milesormore,whereas~70%operateprimarilywithin100miles.•Recentindustrytrends(e.g.,theriseofe-commerceandlowdriverretention)producedashiftawayfrominterregionalandnationalhaulsinfavorofdecentralizedhub-and-spokedistributionmodels,whichculminatedina37%decreaseintheaveragelengthofhaulfrom2000to2018(notfactoredinthefigure).Source:Borlaugetal.2021.Heavy-dutytruckelectrificationandtheimpactsofdepotchargingonelectricitydistributionsystems.NatureEnergy.NotalltrucksarethesameorusedthesamewayNREL40TEMPOFAF-VIUSSynthesis•Goal:breakdownfreightdemandbyshipmentdistancetorepresentvaryingtriprequirements.•Problems:oDisagreementsacrosssources/models.oGapsinkeymetrics,timeperiods,modes.•Solution(s)oftenrequiremergingmultipledatasetstogethertomeetdesiredinputdataneeds.•Keyassumptions/caveats:oWeassumetrucksareassignedtoasingleshipmentdistancebinfortheentirevehiclelifetime.oWedonotrepresenttheusedvehiclemarketorchangesinapplicationsoverthevehiclelifetime.capacityavgloadNREL41TEMPOFAF-VIUSSynthesis:Validation•WecomparetheoutcomesofTEMPO’sFAF-VIUSsynthesistoVIUSVMT.VIUSVMTwasnotdirectlyusedtoinformTEMPOVMT,onlysharesacrossmodesanddistances.•Wefindthat,accountingforTEMPO’sbinningintoshipmentdistancesbasedonFAF,wematchVIUSdistributionsofVMTbytruckstock.•Tosomeextent,weunderestimatetheVMTofthelowest-drivingheavytrucksinTEMPOduetoourdistancebinning.Thismightimplythatweoverestimatethetimeittakestoreachcostparityinthe0–99-milebinforheavyvehicles.DistributionofVMTbyTruckClass,TEMPO&VIUSNREL42DriversofMHDVAdoptioninTEMPOVehicleadoptioninTEMPOisdeterminedbytotalcostofdriving(TCD):•Upfrontvehiclecost(MSRP)•Fuelcosts(vehiclefueleconomyandfuelprice)•Maintenancecosts•Vehicleusage(VMT)•Financialhorizonconsidered(ordiscountrate)•MonetizedchargingtimecostforBEVs(chargingavailabilityandspeed)•Logitformulation—capturesheterogeneities•Nodifferenceinresalevalueacrosspowertrainsduetouncertainty(batteryreplacement/depreciation).Non-financialfactorslikeavailabilityofmake/models,driverpreferences,manufacturingorinfrastructureconstraints,otherexternaldriversofadoptionarenotconsidered.𝑤𝑤𝑡𝑡=𝑒𝑒(−𝐾𝐾×𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡)𝑠𝑠𝑡𝑡=𝑤𝑤𝑡𝑡∑𝑡𝑡=1𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑤𝑡𝑡•𝑤𝑤𝑡𝑡istheweightoftechnologyt•𝐾𝐾isthecostcoefficient•𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐷𝐷𝑡𝑡isthetotalcostofdrivingoftechnologyt•𝑠𝑠𝑡𝑡isthesalesshareTEMPOTechnologyChoiceLogit11Moredetails:Muratorietal.,2021.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.102967•TCDparityinTEMPOimpliesasalesshareevenlydividedbetweentechnologies.•Weassumethatfiveyearsofconsistentcostsavingsarerequiredtoreach95%adoptionafterachievingTCDparityineachmarketsegment.NREL43TotalCostofDrivingLimitations•Adoptionassumedtobedrivenbyeconomicsonly.–Non-financialfactorslikeavailabilityofmake/modelsandmanufacturingorinfrastructureconstraints,driverpreferences,accelerationandsafety,fleetorstakeholderpreferences(e.g.,decarbonizationpledges),andotherexternalities(e.g.,costofpollution)arenotconsidered.•Distinctfromtotalcostofownership(TCO)analyses,wedonotexplicitlyconsidersomecostelements(e.g.,insurance,drivercost)duetolackofdataandhighuncertainty.Weinsteadimplicitlyassumethesefactorsareconstantacrosspowertrains.–Generaloperationalcosts(driverwages,insurance,permits/tolls)1–Resalevalueacrosspowertrains(duetouncertaintyinbatteryreplacement/depreciation).1ConsistentwithassumptionsmadeinHunter,C.,Penev,M.,Reznicek,E.,Lustbader,J.,Birky,A.&Zhang,C.2021.SpatialandTemporalAnalysisoftheTotalCostofOwnershipforClass8TractorsandClass4ParcelDeliveryTrucks.NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,NREL/TP-5400-71796.ASSUMPTIONSNREL45InputAssumptions:Vehicles0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0002020203020402050VehicleCost($/veh)BEV-500,ConservativeBEV-500,AdvancedFCEV,ConservativeFCEV,AdvancedICEVVehicleCost($/vehicle),HeavyTruckVehicleFuelEconomy(miles/GGE),HeavyTruck0510152025302020203020402050FuelEconomy(Veh-Mi/GGE)BEV-500,ConservativeBEV-500,AdvancedFCEV,ConservativeFCEV,AdvancedICEV•AllassumptionsarefromAutonomiesimulations-Low(Conservative)andHigh(Advanced)scenarios.1•Advancedassumptionsareusedinourcentralscenario,whileconservativeassumptionsinformsensitivities.•ICEVsfollowconservativeassumptionsinallcases.1Islametal.,forthcoming.NREL46InputAssumptions:TEMPO-AUTONOMIEMappingTEMPOClassTEMPOPowertrainAutonomieMappingNotesLight-Medium(Class3,10,000–14,000lbs.)AllClass3VanStartingfromavailableBEV-150,BEV-300,andBEV-500costupdatedtoaccountforlargerbattery,assumingsameefficiency.Medium(Class4–6,14,000–26,000lbs.)AllWeightedaverageofClass4PnD(41%);Class6Box(59%)WeightsbasedonVIUS;startingfromavailableBEV-150,BEV-300,andBEV-500costupdatedtoaccountforlargerbattery,assumingsameefficiency.Heavy(Class7–8,26,000+lbs.)AllWeightedaverageofClass7tractor(4%);Class8Tractor(27%);Class8Sleeper(69%)WeightsbasedonVIUS;startingfromavailableBEV-500,BEV-150,andBEV-300costupdatedtoaccountforlargerbattery,assumingsameefficiency.NREL470501001502002503003502020203020402050BatteryPackPrice($/kWh)CentralInputAssumptions–BatteriesandFuelCellsBatteryandFuelCellPrices,Centralscenario•BatterypackandfuelcellpricesareembeddedinAutonomie1estimatesofvehiclepurchasecost.•OurcentralcaseassumesthatbatteryandfuelcellpricesfollowtheHighcasefromAutonomie.•Conservativecostestimatesareexploredinsensitivities.1Islametal.,forthcoming0501001502002502020203020402050FuelCellPrice($/kW)CentralNREL48InputAssumptions–FuelPrices00.050.10.150.20.25024681012202020352050ElectricityPrice($/kWh)FuelPrice($/GGE)DieselHydrogenElectricityFuelPrices(CentralCase)•CentralfuelpriceassumptionsarefromAEO2019fordiesel.1•Hydrogenandelectricitypricesarehighlyuncertain.•Weexploremultiplefuelpricesensitivitiesinadditiontoourcentralassumptions.1U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration.2019.AnnualEnergyOutlook2019.https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/.NREL49BEVChargingPenalty•WeassumenocostassociatedwithrefuelingICE/HEV/FCEV(availabilityofrefuelingeverywhere,longvehiclerange,andrefuelingtimecomparableacrosstechnologies).•BEVarepenalizediftrucksneedtoaddanintradaystoptorecharge:valueoftimeaddedtochargingcosts($75/h).1•Thefractionofchargingthatismonetizedisafunctionofdailydrivingdistance,vehiclerange,andaccesstoovernightcharging.•DailydrivingdistanceiscomputedfromassumedannualVMT(derivedfromFAF-VIUSsynthesis),dividingby250(short-haul)or300(long-haul)operationdays.Thenumberofintradaychargingeventsiscalculatedfromdailydrivingdistanceandrange.Ifdailydrivingdistancedoesnotexceedrange,zerointradaychargingeventsareassumed.•Monetizedchargingfractionsarecomputedasthefractionoftotalchargingevents(intradayandovernight)thataremonetized,consideringanaverageacrossthevehiclefleet.Allintradaystopsareassumedtobemonetized;overnightchargingvariesbyclassandapplication.•Weassumealllight-medium,medium,andshort-haul(<500–mile)heavyvehicleshaveaccesstoovernightcharging,whichisnotmonetized.•6.2%ofheavytrucks(38%oflong-haulheavytrucks)areassumedtobeteamdrivers,withallchargingmonetized.2Allotherovernightchargingeventsareassumedtobenon-monetizedforlong-haulheavytrucks.1Hunter,C.,Penev,M.,Reznicek,E.,Lustbader,J.,Birky,A.&Zhang,C.2021.SpatialandTemporalAnalysisoftheTotalCostofOwnershipforClass8TractorsandClass4ParcelDeliveryTrucks.NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,NREL/TP-5400-71796.2Schoettle,B.,Sivak,M.,&Tunnell,M.2016.Asurveyoffueleconomyandfuelusagebyheavy-dutytruckfleets.UniversityofMichiganSustainableWorldTransportation&AmericanTransportationresearchInstitute,SWT-2016-12.NREL50BEVChargingPenaltyVehicleClassPowertrainShipmentDistanceShareofNon-MonetizedChargingHeavy(Class7–8,26,000+lbs.)BEV-1500–250Miles100%to30%(varyingwithindividualbin)BEV-3000–250miles;250+miles100%to16%BEV-500250+miles100%to22%Medium(Class4–6,14,000–26,000lbs.)BEV-1500–250Miles100%to31%BEV-3000–250miles;250+miles100%to48%BEV-500250+miles100%Light-Medium(Class3,10,000–14,000lbs.)BEV-1500–250miles100%to35%BEV-3000–250miles;250+miles100%BEV-500250+miles100%•Sharesrefertothepercentofchargingeventsthatarenotpenalizedmonetarily.Sharesvarywithassumeddailydrivingdistance,inferredfromannualVMTassociatedwithshipmentdistance.NREL51InputAssumptions–FinancialHorizon•Assumedfinancialhorizonreferstothenumberofyearsconsideredbyvehiclepurchaserswhencalculatingcostofdriving($/mile).–Shorterfinancialhorizonmayreflecttechnologyuncertainty,highervalueoftime,andwarrantiesamongotherfactors–Duetohigherupfrontcostsandhighmileageexpectations,weassumeownersofheavytrucksmayconsiderlongertimehorizonsthanlightervehiclesVehicleClassFinancialHorizon(Years)1Light-Medium(Class3,10,000–14,000lbs.)3Medium(Class4–6,14,000–26,000lbs.)4Heavy(Class7–8,26,000+lbs.)51TheauthorswouldliketothankMikeRoethandPickMihelic(NACFE)fortheusefuldiscussionsonthistopicNREL52InputAssumptions–MaintenanceCosts•MaintenancecostsarefromHunteretal.(2021)1,Midscenario,andheldconstantovertime.•Light-medium(Class3)trucksassumedtohavethesamemaintenancecostsasmedium(Class4-6),duetolackofdata.1Hunter,C.,Penev,M.,Reznicek,E.,Lustbader,J.,Birky,A.&Zhang,C.2021.SpatialandTemporalAnalysisoftheTotalCostofOwnershipforClass8TractorsandClass4ParcelDeliveryTrucks.NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,NREL/TP-5400-71796.VehicleClassICEV/HEVBEVFCEVLight-Medium(Class3,10,000–14,000lbs.)0.1180.0760.118Medium(Class4–6,14,000–26,000lbs.)0.1180.0760.118Heavy(Class7–8,26,000+lbs.)0.1520.0980.153MaintenanceCost($/mile)byVehicleClassandPowertrain,fromHunteretal.1NREL53InputAssumptions–FleetTurnover•MD/HDsurvivalratesarederivedfromtheVISIONmodel1andcalibratedtomatchAEOsales.•Initial(2017)vehicleagedistributionsarefromMOVES.2Weassumeanaverageageof11yearsforheavytrucksand12yearsforlight-mediumandmediumtrucksin2017.•Weassumethatnon-freightvehicleshavethesamesurvivalrateasfreightvehicles.1ArgonneNationalLaboratory.2019.“VISIONModel.”Argonne,IL:ArgonneNationalLaboratory.https://www.anl.gov/es/vision-model2U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency.2021.PopulationandActivityofOnroadVehiclesinMOVES3.USEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,EPA-420-R-21-01,https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P1011TF8.pdf.0%20%40%60%80%100%02040AnnualSurvivalRateVehicleAge0%20%40%60%80%100%02040CumulativeSurvivalProbabilityVehicleAgeHeavyMediumLight-MediumNREL54StockandSalesComparisonwithAEO•TEMPOassumesconstantloadfactors,whichimpliesthatvehiclestockandsalesgrowattherateofVMT.Thisleadstosomelong-termdivergencefromAEOinthenumberofvehicles.•Historicalyears(2019–2021)matchclosely.Stock,MD/HDTrucksSales,MD/HDTrucksNREL55ComparisonwithOtherWorksVehicleClassTEMPO–CentralScenarioIslametal,ForthcomingHunteretal.2021Light-Medium(Class3,10,000–14,000lbs.)BEVs:majorityreachTCDparitywithICEVbefore2030;FCEVsbefore2035BEVs:parityby2027;FCEVsbefore2035NotincludedMedium(Class4–6,14,000–26,000lbs.)BEVs:majorityreachparitybetween2025and2035;FCEVsbefore2035BEVsachieveparitybefore2035;FCEVsbefore2050Single-shiftBEVs:parityby2025;FCEVs:parityassumingultimatetargetsmet;multi-shiftBEVsdonotachieveparityHeavy(Class7–8,26,000+lbs.)BEVs&FCEVs:paritybetween2030&2035BEVs:approachparityby2035;FCEVsachieve,oralmostachieve,parityby2050Paritydependsonusage;short-haulsingle-shiftBEVs:by2025;long-haulBEV&FCEV:ifultimatetargets&optimisticfuelpricesachieved•Vehicleassumptions(costandfueleconomy)aretakenfromwithIslametal.(forthcoming).•Despitesomedifferences,totalcostofdrivingestimatesintheTEMPOcentralscenarioarealignedwithIslametal.forBEVsandaremoreoptimisticforFCEVs(duetomoreoptimistichydrogenpriceassumptions).•ThecentralscenarioisalignedwithHunteretal.formediumBEVs.Differencesinvehicleattributes,fuelprice,vehicleuseanddwelltimemayaccountfordifferencesobservedinheavylong-haulapplications.SENSITIVITIESNREL57ImpactofFuelPricesHeavyTrucks,2035(AEORefDiesel–$4/gal)•Fuelpricesandchargingspeedsarehighlyuncertainandvarybylocationandfordifferentvehiclesanddistances.•Underhighdieselpriceassumptions,BEVsandFCEVsdominatethemarket.•Hydrogenbecomesmostcompetitiveinlongershipmentdistances(higherVMT)andathigherelectricityprices.•500kW(central;solidlines)and1000kW(dashedlines)chargingspeedsareconsidered,illustratinghowreducingdwelltimepenaltiesimprovestheviabilityofBEVs.HeavyTrucks,2035(AEOHighDiesel–$6/gal)1000kW1000kW1000kW500kW500kW500kW1000kWNREL5810%1000-14990-99100-249250-499500-749750-9991500-20002000+ShipmentDistanceBin[miles]ImpactofVehicleCostandFuelEconomy•Vehiclecostandfueleconomyevolutionishighlyuncertain,especiallyforZEVpowertrains.•ConservativevehiclecostsdelayZEVparityby10yearsormoreforheavytrucks.•Fuelcellsreachparityafter2040inmostbins.•BEV-300sandBEV-500sdonotachieveparityinmostbinsunderconservativeassumptions.ZEVCostparitybyDistanceBin,HeavyTrucks,ConservativeandCentralTechnologyAssumptionsCentralConservativeNREL59ImpactofFinancialHorizon•2–10-yearfinancialhorizonsmaydelayorincreaseparitybyupto6years.•Longerhorizonshiftsimportancetoincrementalcosts;shorterhorizonemphasizesupfrontcostmore.•BEV-500saremostsensitivetofinancialhorizonduetohighupfrontcosts.•FCEVsandshort-rangeBEVsarelessaffected(0–2-yeardifference).1000-14990-99100-249250-499500-749750-9991500-20002000+ShipmentDistanceBin[miles]HeavyTrucks,BEVCostParitybyShipmentDistanceandFinancialHorizon10-yearhorizon2-yearhorizonNREL602050EmissionsReductions:AdditionalScenarios•Additionalscenarios/sensitivities:–ConservativeZEVtechnologyprogress(vehiclecostandfueleconomyimprovements)–AdvancedICEVtechnology(ICEVandHEVvehiclecostandfueleconomyimprovements)–AdvancedH2:$3/kgby2040(vs$4/kgby2035)–ConservativeH2:$6/kg2030-2050–ConservativeElectricity:$0.27/kWhand500kWcharging(vs.$0.18/kWhand500kW)–AdvancedElectricity:$0.12/kWhand1000kWcharging–ConservativeH2&Electricity:$6/kgH22030-2050;$0.27/kWhand500kWcharging.•Reducedtechnologyimprovementsstronglyhinderdecarbonizationpotential.•Advancedhydrogenhasasmallimpact,asmostbenefitsareincurredafter2040.•Advancedelectricityassumptionsimprovedecarbonizationpotential.05010015020025030035040045050020192050AnnualEmissions(MMTCO2)CentralCaseCons.TechAdvancedH2AdvancedElec-69%-71%-77%-27%-63%-64%-48%-63%Adv.ICEVLow-carbonfuelscanfurtherreduceremainingemissionsMHDVTailpipeEmissions:2019–2050Cons.ElecCons.H2Cons.H2&ElecNREL61VehicleStockShare–CentralCase29%stock11%energy34%stock26%stock23%energy13%energy1%stock2%energy9%stock50%energy0%stock0%energy•Centralfuelandtechnologyassumptions($4/kghydrogenafter2035,$0.18/kWhelectricityafter2030,HighZEVcostandfueleconomyassumptions).–2030sales:42%ZEV(40%BEV/2%FCEV)–2040sales:98%ZEV(77%BEV/21%FCEV)–2050sales:100%ZEV(83%BEV/17%FCEV)–2050stock:80%ZEV(66%BEV/14%FCEV).–2050stockintheheavy250+milebin:72%ZEV(32%BEV/40%FCEV).•Total2050electricityconsumptionis626TWh,includingbusesandelectricityforhydrogen.Hydrogenconsumptionis7.8MMT.•2050emissionsreductionsare69%relativeto2019.Liquidfuelconsumptionis13.5billiongallonsin2050.NREL62VehicleStockShares–ConservativeZEVTechnologySensitivity•Conservativetechnologyassumptions(vehiclecostandfueleconomy)substantiallyincreaseemissionsrelativetotheCentralscenario.–2030sales:7%ZEV(7%BEV/0%FCEV)–2040sales:45%ZEV(35%BEV/10%FCEV)–2050sales:71%ZEV(49%BEV/22%FCEV)–2050stock:40%ZEV(30%BEV/10%FCEV)–2050stockintheheavy250+milebin:24%ZEV(6%BEV/18%FCEV).•Total2050electricityconsumptionis349TWh,includingbusesandelectricityforhydrogen.Hydrogenconsumptionis4.8MMT.•2050emissionsreductionsare27%relativeto2019.Liquidfuelconsumptionis31.6billiongallonsin2050.29%stock11%energy34%stock26%stock23%energy13%energy1%stock2%energy9%stock50%energy0%stock0%energyNREL63VehicleStockShares–AdvancedICEVSensitivity•AdvancedICEVandHEVcostandfueleconomyassumptions(Autonomie–Highscenario)increaseemissionsrelativetotheCentralscenariobutstillenablealmost100%ZEVsalesby2050.–2030sales:33%ZEV(32%BEV/1%FCEV)–2040sales:95%ZEV(76%BEV/19%FCEV)–2050sales:99%ZEV(82%BEV/17%FCEV)–2050stock:77%ZEV(64%BEV/13%FCEV)–2050stockintheheavy250+milebin:57%ZEV(26%BEV/31%FCEV).•Total2050electricityconsumptionis525TWh,includingbusesandelectricityforhydrogen.Hydrogenconsumptionis6.3MMT.•2050emissionsreductionsare63%relativeto2019,driveninpartbymoreaggressiveICEVandHEVimprovements.Liquidfuelconsumptionis15.9billiongallonsin2050.29%stock11%energy34%stock26%stock23%energy13%energy1%stock2%energy9%stock50%energy0%stock0%energyNREL64VehicleStockShares–ConservativeH2Sensitivity•Conservativehydrogenassumptions($6/kgheldconstantfrom2030–2050)resultinminimalFCEVsales/stock.–2030sales:42%ZEV(40%BEV/2%FCEV)–2040sales:97%ZEV(90%BEV/7%FCEV)–2050sales:100%ZEV(95%BEV/5%FCEV)–2050stock:79%ZEV(74%BEV/5%FCEV),MostFCEVlossesareoffsetbygainsinBEVs,exceptinheavylong-haulbins–2050stockintheheavy250+milebin:64%ZEV(61%BEV/3%FCEV).•Total2050electricityconsumptionis381TWh,includingbusesandelectricityforhydrogen.Hydrogenconsumptionis1.2MMT.•2050emissionsreductionsare64%relativeto2019.Liquidfuelconsumptionis15.4billiongallonsin2050.29%stock11%energy34%stock26%stock23%energy13%energy1%stock2%energy9%stock50%energy0%stock0%energyNREL65VehicleStockShares–AdvancedH2Sensitivity•TheAdvancedH2scenarioassumesa2030hydrogenpriceof$4/kg,ratherthan$6,anda2040priceof$3/kgratherthan$4.–2030sales:44%ZEV(38%BEV/6%FCEV)–2040sales:98%ZEV(67%BEV,31%FCEV)–2050sales:100%ZEV(73%BEV/27%FCEV)–2050stock:81%ZEV(59%BEV/22%FCEV).LowerH2pricesprimarilyaffectcompetitionbetweenZEVpowertrainsratherthanreplacingICEVs–2050stockintheheavy250+milebin:75%ZEV(17%BEV/58%FCEV).•2050electricityconsumptionis769TWhincludingbusesandelectricityforhydrogen.Hydrogenconsumptionis11.6MMT.•2050emissionsreductionsare71%relativeto2019.Liquidfuelconsumptionis12.5billiongallonsin2050.29%stock11%energy34%stock26%stock23%energy13%energy1%stock2%energy9%stock50%energy0%stock0%energyNREL66VehicleStockShares–ConservativeElectricitySensitivity•TheConservativeElectricityscenarioassumesanelectricitypriceof$0.27/kWhfrom2030-2050,ratherthan$0.18/kWh,whichcouldcapturehigherpowersystemcosts.Chargingspeedisunchanged.–2030sales:30%ZEV(28%BEV/2%FCEV)–2040sales:96%ZEV(61%BEV/35%FCEV)–2050sales:100%ZEV(68%BEV/32%FCEV)–2050stock:77%ZEV(52%BEV/25%FCEV).FCEVsarenotabletofullyreplacelostZEV.–2050stockintheheavy250+milebin:65%ZEV(7%BEV/58%FCEV).•2050electricityconsumptionis737TWhincludingbusesandelectricityforhydrogen.Hydrogenconsumptionis11.8MMT.•2050emissionsreductionsare63%relativeto2019.Liquidfuelconsumptionis15.9billiongallonsin2050.29%stock11%energy34%stock26%stock23%energy13%energy1%stock2%energy9%stock50%energy0%stock0%energyNREL67VehicleStockShares–AdvancedElectricitySensitivity•Advancedelectricityassumptions($0.12/kWhand1000kWcharging)substantiallyreduceemissionsrelativetotheCentralscenario.FCEVsaresoldinlowernumbersduetoenhancedBEVcompetitiveness,andsubstantiallydeclineinheavyvehiclesegments.–2030sales:56%ZEV(55%BEV/1%FCEV)–2040sales:99%ZEV(89%BEV/10%FCEV)–2050sales:100%ZEV(92%BEV/8%FCEV)–2050stock:83%ZEV(76%BEV/7%FCEV).–2050stockintheheavy250+milebin:81%ZEV(77%BEV/4%FCEV)•Total2050electricityconsumptionis460TWh,includingbusesandelectricityforhydrogen.Hydrogenconsumptionis1.6MMT.•2050emissionsreductionsare77%relativeto2019.Liquidfuelconsumptionis10.1billiongallonsin2050.29%stock11%energy34%stock26%stock23%energy13%energy1%stock2%energy9%stock50%energy0%stock0%energyNREL68CostParityByDistanceBinHeavyTrucks,AdvancedElectricity143,00084,00093,00068,000<10,000150,000153,000206,000EnergyShareYearZEVsReachCostParityAverageAnnualVMT9%15%16%10%6%8%4%6%1000-14990-99100-249250-499500-749750-9991500-20002000+ShipmentDistanceBin[miles]5-yearfinancialhorizon•Undermoreaggressiveassumptionsforchargingspeedandelectricitycosts,BEVsachievecostparitywithICEVsbefore2035ineverydistancebin,and100%salesoverallby2040.•AllbinsaredominatedbyBEVs:o2050stock:75%BEV,3%FCEV,22%ICEV(2050sales:97%BEV;3%FCEV)o2050ton-miles:76%BEV;3%FCEV;21%ICEV.NREL69VehicleStockShares–ConservativeH2&ElectricitySensitivity•Conservativeelectricityandhydrogenpriceassumptions($0.27/kWhelectricityand$6/kghydrogen)substantiallyincreaseemissionsrelativetotheCentralscenariobutstillenablealmost100%ZEVsalesby2050.–2030sales:30%ZEV(28%BEV/2%FCEV)–2040sales:90%ZEV(77%BEV/13%FCEV)–2050sales:96%ZEV(84%BEV/12%FCEV)–2050stock:73%ZEV(63%BEV/10%FCEV)–2050stockintheheavy250+milebin:38%ZEV(23%BEV/15%FCEV).•Total2050electricityconsumptionis369TWh,includingbusesandelectricityforhydrogen.Hydrogenconsumptionis3.4MMT.•2050emissionsreductionsare48%relativeto2019.Liquidfuelconsumptionis22.6billiongallonsin2050.29%stock11%energy34%stock26%stock23%energy13%energy1%stock2%energy9%stock50%energy0%stock0%energy
VIP
