Page1EmissionsTradingSystemandPowerMarketsReform中国碳市场与电力市场化改革KeyfindingsfromIEA-TsinghuareportEnhancingChina’sETSforCarbonNeutrality:FocusonPowerSector国际能源署-清华大学联合报告《加强中国碳市场助力实现碳中和：聚焦电力部门》主要结论DavidFISCHER,ProjectCoordinator,EnvironmentandClimateChangeUnit,IEA21September2022IEA2022.Allrightsreserved.Page2•InSeptember2020,PresidentXiJinpingannoucedthatChinahaveCO2emissionspeakbefore2030andachievecarbonneutralitybefore2060•2020年9月，习近平主席宣布中国将“力争二氧化碳排放于2030年前达到峰值、努力争取2060年前实现碳中和”•China’snationalETScameintooperationinJuly2021.99.5%compliancerateforthe1stcomplianceperiod•中国全国碳市场于2021年7月启动交易.碳市场第一个履约期履约率99.5%•Currentlycoversthepowersectorwhichemitsaround4.5GtCO2annually(~40%ofChina’senergysectorCO2emissions)•目前，中国碳市场纳入发电行业，每年覆盖约45亿吨二氧化碳排放量（约占中国能源体系二氧化碳排放量的40%）•Allowanceprice:~CNY40-60/tCO2(USD6-8/tCO2)•碳排放配额交易价格：~40-60元/吨二氧化碳（6-8美元/吨二氧化碳）•Output-andintensity-basedallowanceallocationwithemissionintensitybenchmarksforfourcategoriesofcoal-andgas-firedunits,withoutapredeterminedemissionscap•中国碳市场采用基于实际产出和排放强度的基准法，根据四类煤电和气电机组类别设定碳排放强度基准分配配额，不预先设定排放总量上限•Freeallocation,possibilitytointroduceauctionsinthefuture•碳市场初期免费分配配额，未来可能引入配额拍卖机制China’snationalemissionstradingsystem(ETS)inthecontextofthedualcarbongoals双碳目标下的中国全国碳市场IEA2022.Allrightsreserved.Page3Carbonpricingmakeslower-carbongenerationmorecost-competitive碳价机制使相对低碳的发电技术更具成本竞争力Undereconomicdispatch,internalisationofthecarboncoststrengthenscost-competitivenessoflower-carbontechnologiesanddrivesfuelswitching在经济调度下，纳入碳排放成本将提高相对低碳的发电技术的成本竞争力，推动低碳能源对高碳能源的替代Meritorderandfuelswitchingundercarbonpricing碳价下的电力经济调度优先顺序与燃料替代RenewablesNuclearCoalGasPeakersEmissionscostDemand(MW)供电需求Demand(MW)供电需求DemandDemandWithoutcarbonpricing无碳价Withcarbonpricing实施碳价PricePriceConsumptionConsumptionMarginalcost(CNY/MWh)发电边际成本Marginalcost(CNY/MWh)发电边际成本煤电气电核电可再生能源发电调峰机组碳排放成本IEA2022.Allrightsreserved.Page4Emissionsreductionschannelsthroughcarbonpricing碳价机制促进减排的主要途径Challengeswithregulatedpowermarket受政府管制电力市场下面临的挑战Prioritizelower-carbongenerationsourcesindispatchdecisionsascarbonpricemakeslower-carbongenerationmorecost-competitive碳价使相对低碳的发电技术更具成本竞争力，从而在电力调度决策中提高较低碳发电技术的优先级Administrativelydetermineddispatchmaynot(fully)integratethecarbonpricesignalindispatchdecisions通过行政决策决定的电力调度可能无法将碳价格信号（完全）纳入到调度决策中Incentivizesinvestmentinlow-carbontechnologiesandassetsbyincreasingtheirprofitabilityvis-à-viscarbonintensiveassets,whileencouragingearlyretirementofthelatter通过提高低碳技术和资产相对于高碳资产的盈利能力，激励对低碳技术和资产的投资，同时推动高碳资产提前退出Regulatedpricinglimitscarbonpricing’seffectivenessinmakinglow-carbonalternativesmoreprofitableandattractiveforinvestors受管制的定价机制可能削弱碳价在提高低碳技术利润和投资吸引力方面的有效性Encourageefficiencyinenduseanddemandreductionasthecarbonpriceispassedthroughtoconsumers随着碳价信号传导向消费者，激励终端能效提升和用能需求减少Regulatedpricinglimitspass-throughofthecarbonpricesignalanditsincentivefordemandreduction受管制的定价机制限制了碳价格信号的传导及其对需求侧响应的激励Lackofcarboncostpass-throughcouldputgeneratorswithexistingfossilgenerationassetsinfinancialdifficulty无法传导碳成本可能会使经营现有化石发电资产的企业陷入财务困境PowermarketsreformessentialforETSeffectiveness电力市场化改革对碳市场的政策效果影响重大IEA2022.Allrightsreserved.Page5Scenario情景EmissionsTradingSystem(ETS)碳市场PowerMarketReform电力体制改革RenewablePortfolioStandard(RPS)可再生能源配额制CounterfactualScenario反事实对照情景RPS可再生能源配额制情景Noemissionstradingsystem无碳排放权交易制度Economicdispatchfrom2025自2025年起实施经济调度Inclusionofinterprovincialtrade考虑跨省电力交易Samenon-hydrorenewablessharetarget非水可再生能源占比目标各情景中目标保持一致CurrentPolicyScenario当前政策情景RPS-ETS可再生能源配额制-碳市场情景Intensity-basedETSwithfreeallocation(asimplementedinChina)基于排放强度、免费分配配额的碳市场（如中国当前实施的碳市场设计）EnhancedETS(ETS+)Scenarios碳市场加强情景ETS+BM碳市场+基准收紧情景Intensity-basedETSwithstrongtighteningofthecoalbenchmarksusedforallocationofallowances基于强度的碳市场，大幅收紧用于配额分配的煤电基准ETS+Auction碳市场+拍卖情景Intensity-basedETSwithintroductionofauctioning基于强度的碳市场，引入部分配额拍卖ETS+Cap碳市场+总量控制情景Cap-and-tradeETSwithfreeallocation设有碳排放总量上限、免费分配配额的碳市场Scenariodesign情景设计IEA2022.Allrightsreserved.Page60100020003000400050002020202520302035MtCO₂RPSRPS-ETS103%93%80%95%In%of2020emissions：较2020年排放量：EnhancementsinETSdesigncanaccelerateelectricitysectoralignmentwithacarbonneutralitytrajectory加强碳市场设计可推动发电行业排放轨迹更符合碳中和目标的需要Electricitysectoremissionspeakbefore2030withcurrentRPSandETSpolicies…在当前可再生能源配额制和碳市场政策的作用下，电力部门二氧化碳排放可在2030年前达峰CO2emissionstrajectoryfromelectricitygenerationbyscenario,2020-20352020-2035年各情景下的电力部门二氧化碳排放轨迹IEA2022.Allrightsreserved.Page70100020003000400050002020202520302035MtCO₂RPSRPS-ETSETS+103%93%80%62%89%95%…whileETSdesignenhancementscandoubletheCO2reductionoftheRPS-ETSScenario加强碳市场设计可使二氧化碳减排量较可再生能源配额制-碳市场情景中翻倍CO2emissionstrajectoryfromelectricitygenerationbyscenario,2020-20352020-2035年各情景下的电力部门二氧化碳排放轨迹In%of2020emissions：较2020年排放量：EnhancementsinETSdesigncanaccelerateelectricitysectoralignmentwithacarbonneutralitytrajectory加强碳市场设计可推动发电行业排放轨迹更符合碳中和目标的需要IEA2022.Allrightsreserved.Page8ETSandpowermarketreformsynergyindrivingefficiencyimprovementandfuelswitching碳市场和电力市场改革协同提高发电效率并推动燃料替代StringentETSbenchmarksdriveefficiencyandCCUS;auctioningandacapencouragefuelswitching严格的碳市场强度基准将推动能效提升和CCUS技术；配额拍卖和总量控制将鼓励燃料替代AdditionalemissionsreductionsbytypecomparedwiththecounterfactualRPSScenario,2025-20352025-2035年各情景相比于可再生能源配额制情景的额外减排量分解-1500-1000-5000RPS-ETSRPS-ETSETS+BMETS+AuctionETS+CapRPS-ETSETS+BMETS+AuctionETS+Cap202520302035Switchfromfossiltonon-fossiltechnologiesCoal-to-gasswitchSwitchfromunabatedcoaltocoalwithCCUSCoalfleetefficiencyimprovementsMtCO2化石能源转向非化石能源发电煤电转向气电煤电配备CCUS煤电平均效率提升IEA2022.Allrightsreserved.Page9EnhancedETSacceleratestransitionofthegenerationmix强化碳市场设计将加速发电结构转型AllEnhancedETSdesignsacceleratephase-downofunabatedcoalbutleadtoverydifferentgenerationmixes各碳市场加强方案都将加速未配备CCUS的煤电的逐步减少，但将推动电力结构向不同方向转型Electricitygenerationmixbytechnologyandscenario,2020-20352020-2035年各情景下的发电结构0%20%40%60%80%100%ETS+CapETS+AuctionETS+BMRPS-ETSETS+CapETS+AuctionETS+BMRPS-ETSRPS-ETSRPS-ETSCoalCoalwithCCUSGasNuclearHydroNon-hydrorenewablesTargetedRPSshare(non-hydro)18.7%25.9%36.0%2030203520252020非水可再生能源发电消纳目标煤电配备CCUS的煤电气电核电水电非水可再生能源发电2035RPStarget2035年非水可再生能源消纳目标IEA2022.Allrightsreserved.Page10ETSdesignopportunitiesfordrivingcost-effectivetransition碳市场为推动更经济有效的低碳转型提供机遇Cap-and-tradeETScouldachievemorethan800MtadditionalCO2emissionsreductionsatnoadditionalcost碳市场+总量控制情景可在2035年系统总成本与当前政策情景相同的情况下，额外减少8亿吨的二氧化碳排放Totalsystemcostbyscenario,20352035年各情景下的系统总成本010002000300040005000RPS-ETSETS+BMETS+Auction(excludingauctioningcost)ETS+CapbillionCNYDifferencecomparedtoRPS-ETS较可再生能源配额制-碳市场情景成本差异+5.2%0%+1.4%IEA2022.Allrightsreserved.Page11Conclusion总结•StrongsynergybetweennationalETSandpowermarketsreformforpromotingtheuseofefficientgenerationsourcesanddrivinglow-carbonandcost-effectivetransitioninthepowersector•全国碳市场和电力体制改革在推动高效发电技术和经济有效地推动电力行业低碳转型方面有强协同作用•TimelypowermarketsreformondispatchandpricingmechanismsimportantfornationalETSeffectiveness•及时对电力调度和定价机制等方面进行市场化改革对全国碳市场的有效性十分重要•AnenhancedETScanaccelerateelectricitysectoralignmentwithacarbonneutralitytrajectory•加强碳市场设计可推动发电行业排放轨迹更符合碳中和目标的需要•TheETScandriveemissionsreductionsthroughdifferentchannels:stringentemissionsintensitybenchmarksmostlydriveefficiencyimprovementsandCCUSdeployment;auctioningandacapencouragefuelswitchingtorenewables•在不同的设计下，碳市场通过不同的机制推动减排：严格的碳市场强度基准主要推动能效提升和CCUS技术，配额拍卖和排放总量控制将鼓励燃料替代•Policycost-effectivenessdependsonETSdesign:transitiontoacap-and-tradesystemcanachievethehighestcost-effectivenessbyprioritisingthelowest-costabatementopportunities,especiallyfuelswitchingtorenewables•碳市场的经济效益将取决于其政策设计：过渡到基于总量控制的碳市场设计在推动电力低碳转型方面可实现更高的经济效益，因为这一设计将优先推动成本最低的减排机会，特别是可再生能源替代化石能源•Introducingpartialallowanceauctioningoracap-and-tradeETScanhelpachieverenewablesdeploymenttargetsbyprovidingtherequiredfinancialincentive•通过引入配额拍卖或设置严格的排放总量上限，碳市场可提供实现可再生能源进一步增长目标所需的经济激励IEA2022.Allrightsreserved.Page12