SOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURESOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTUREPublishedbyFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsBangkok,2021Somerightsreserved.ThisworkismadeavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike3.0IGOlicence(CCBY-NC-SA3.0IGO;https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo).Underthetermsofthislicence,thisworkmaybecopied,redistributedandadaptedfornon-commercialpurposes,providedthattheworkisappropriatelycited.Inanyuseofthiswork,thereshouldbenosuggestionthatFAOendorsesanyspecificorganization,productsorservices.TheuseoftheFAOlogoisnotpermitted.Iftheworkisadapted,thenitmustbelicensedunderthesameorequivalentCreativeCommonslicense.Ifatranslationofthisworkiscreated,itmustincludethefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththerequiredcitation:“ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbytheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO).FAOisnotresponsibleforthecontentoraccuracyofthistranslation.Theoriginal[Language]editionshallbetheauthoritativeedition.AnymediationrelatingtodisputesarisingunderthelicenceshallbeconductedinaccordancewiththeArbitrationRulesoftheUnitedNationsCommissiononInternationalTradeLaw(UNCITRAL)asatpresentinforce.Third-partymaterials.Userswishingtoreusematerialfromthisworkthatisattributedtoathirdparty,suchastables,figuresorimages,areresponsiblefordeterminingwhetherpermissionisneededforthatreuseandforobtainingpermissionfromthecopyrightholder.Theriskofclaimsresultingfrominfringementofanythird-party-ownedcomponentintheworkrestssolelywiththeuser.Sales,rightsandlicensing.FAOinformationproductsareavailableontheFAOwebsite(www.fao.org/publications)andcanbepurchasedthroughpublications-sales@fao.org.Requestsforcommercialuseshouldbesubmittedvia:www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request.Queriesregardingrightsandlicensingshouldbesubmittedto:copyright@fao.org.Coverphotograph:©ShutterStock/aphotostoryRequiredcitation:FAO.2021.Society,economyandforests:TheunfoldingforesttransitionInChinaandlessonsforthefuture.Bangkok.https://doi.org/10.4060/cb3232en.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialinthisinformationproductdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)concerningthelegalordevelopmentstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.Thementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturers,whetherornotthesehavebeenpatented,doesnotimplythatthesehavebeenendorsedorrecommendedbyFAOinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.ISBN978-92-5-133932-9©FAO,2021ContentsBoxes,figuresandtablesivForewordvAcknowledgementsviSummaryviiIntroduction:Achangingworld1Increaseinforestcoverandgrowingstock3Fastestgrowthrateinforestcover3Rapidincreaseingrowingstock6Growingprominenceofforestecosystemservices6Chinaasamajorproducerofforestproducts9Whatcontributedtotheforesttransition?13EmergenceofChinaasanindustrializedeconomy13Environmentalconcernsdrivingkeypolicychanges14Policyandinstitutionalchanges15Implementationofkeyforestryprogrammes18Scienceandtechnologytransformingtheforestsector20ThefutureofforesttransitioninChina23Demographicchanges23Economicchanges24Environmentalchallenges25LessonsfromtheforesttransitioninChina27References29Annex:Keypolicy,legalandinstitutionalchangesin31forestryinChinaBoxes,figuresandtablesBoxes1FloodsinChinain1998:Aturningpoint152Reformofcollectiveforests:AmajorturningpointinChineseforestgovernance173ConversionofCroplandstoForestsandGrasslandsProgramme194BambooresourcesinChinaandtechnologiesfortheirutilization215CombatingdesertificationinnorthernChina22Figures1ForestcoverchangeinChina(millionha)42Changeintheextentofnaturallyregeneratedandplantedforests43Shareofplantedforests54Changeintheextentofotherlandwithtreecover(areainmillionha)55Changeinforestgrowingstock66Forestareamanagedforkeyenvironmentalfunctions77TrendintheproductionofwoodinChina98IndustrialroundwoodimportsbyChina109Changeinthequantityofsawnwoodimports1010Changeintheshareofsawnwoodproduction1111Exportvalueofwoodenfurniture1112GrowthofpercapitaGDPinChina1313ChangeintotalandinurbanpopulationinChina24Tables1RateofforestcoverincreaseinChina32ChangesinlandownershipinChina163Keynationalforestryprogrammes184Numberofstudentsgraduatingfromforestryeducationalinstitutions20Inrecentdecades,deforestationandforestdegradationhaveemergedasmajorissuesadverselyaffectingtheflowofmanyecosystemservicesthatarevitaltotheexistenceoflifeonourplanet.Apartfromproducingawidearrayofproducts,forestsplayaninvaluableroleincombatingclimatechange,regulatingwaterflows,conservingbiodiversityandprovidingvariousamenityvalues.Thedemandfortheseproductsandserviceschangesinresponsetolargersocio-economicchanges.TheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO),throughitsglobalandregionaloutlookstudies,hasbeenprovidinglong-termperspectivesonthepathwaysofchange,includingemergingscenarios,andonwhatneedstobedonetohaveamorebalancedrelationshipbetweensocietyandforests.PursuanttotherecommendationsoftheAsia-PacificForestryCommissionin2019,FAOcompletedtheThirdAsia-PacificForestSectorOutlookStudy,andthepublicationForestFutures:SustainablePathwaysforForests,LandscapesandPeopleintheAsia-PacificRegionprovidedacomprehensiveviewofrecenttrendsinforestryandpossiblescenariosofwhatcouldemergeby2030andbeyond.WhiletheThirdAsia-PacificForestSectorOutlookStudyprovidedaregionaloverview,itwasfeltthatsomeofitsfindingsneededtobeelaboratedandexaminedindetail,focusingonspecificsubregions,countriesandissues.BecauseAsiaandthePacificisanextremelydiverseregion,thereisaneedtolookatthevariedexperienceandattempttoidentifylessonsthatareofwiderrelevance.Inthisregard,theexperienceofChinainrelationtoforestsandforestrystandsoutinseveralareas,includingitsreversalofdeforestationandforestdegradation,anditsemergenceasagloballeaderintheproductionofseveralforestproducts.EvidentlytheexperienceofChinainforesttransitionneedstobediscussedin-depthandsharedconsideringitswiderrelevance.ItisinthiscontextthatthepresentpaperprovidesacomprehensiveassessmentofthechangeswitnessedintheforestsectorinChinaduringthelastthreedecadesandthekeydriversthathavecontributedtothecountry’sforesttransition.Clearlysuchatransitionisanoutcomeoftheconvergenceofseveralfactors,includingtheemergenceofChinaasanindustrialeconomy,clearandconsistentpolicies,tenurereforms,investmentinkeyforestryprogrammes,andstrengtheningscienceandtechnologycapabilities.Thepaperalsoprovidesanindicationoftheemergingchallenges,includingthelargeruncertaintiesstemmingfrominward-lookingpoliciesandtheoutbreakofglobalpandemicsandcrises.Everysituationisunique,butthekeymessagesemergingareindicativeofthedifferentoptionsavailable.ThisstudyonforesttransitioninChinawillprovidevaluableinsightsintowhatisrequiredtobuildandsustainablymanageforestcapitalinordertomeettheneedsandaspirationsofallstakeholders,whetherglobal,nationalorlocal.Jong-JinKimAssistantDirector-GeneralandRegionalRepresentativeRegionalOfficeforAsiaandthePacificFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)ForewordvSOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTUREviThistechnicalpaperisaneffortoftheFAORegionalOfficeforAsiaandthePacific,Bangkok,inresponsetotherecommendationsoftheAsia-PacificForestryCommission.TheauthorsofthepaperarePanYao,ProgrammeOfficer,KunmingTrainingCenter,Asia-PacificNetworkforSustainableForestManagementandRehabilitation(APFNet)andLecturer,SouthwestForestryUniversity,China(onsecondmenttotheRegionalOfficeforAsiaandthePacificduringthepreparationofthepaper);C.T.S.Nair,formerChiefEconomist,FAORome;andRaoMatta,ForestryOfficer,RegionalOfficeforAsiaandthePacific.TheauthorsgratefullyacknowledgethevaluableguidanceandsupportprovidedbyJong-JinKim,AssistantDirector-GeneralandRegionalRepresentative;XiangjunYao,RegionalProgrammeLeader;andThomasHoffer,SeniorForestryOfficer,allattheFAORegionalOfficeforAsiaandthePacific;andbyLuDe,ExecutiveDirectorofAPFNet;andShenLixin,Professor,SouthwestForestryUniversity,China.TheauthorsalsowishtoacknowledgethereviewandvaluablefeedbackprovidedbyDaoweiZhang,ProfessorofForestEconomicsandPolicy,AuburnUniversity,UnitedStatesofAmerica;ZuzhangXia,ForestryOfficer,FAORome;theNationalForestryandGrasslandAdministration,GovernmentofChina;LiuWei,DirectoroftheCapacity-BuildingDivision,APFNet;andPanYu,ForestryOfficer,YunnanInstituteofForestInventoryandPlanning,GovernmentofChina.SpecialthanksgotoDienneMillerforeditorialservices,andtoKallayaMeechantraandRacheleOrientefortheiradministrativeandpublicationsupport.AcknowledgementsviiWhiledeforestationandforestdegradationpersistinmanycountriesinAsiaandthePacific,Chinahaswitnessedaphenomenaltransformationoftheforestsectorinthelastthreedecades.Thecountryhasnotonlysucceededinarrestingdeforestationbutalsogreatlyexpandeditsforestareaandinventory.Currently,Chinaleadstheregioninplantedforestsandagroforestry.Ithasmadeimpressivegainsinwoodprocessingandiscurrentlythelargestexporterofseveralforestproducts,suchaswoodpanels,paperandpaperboard,andfurniture.Itisalsoaleadingproducerandexporterofseveralnon-woodforestproducts.Anumberofpolicychangesandinstitutionalreforms,includingthoserelatingtoforesttenurerights,servedtomobilizeprivatesectorinvestmentsinforestry.Further,environmentalconcernshavetriggeredseveralinterventions,suchasabanonloggingnaturalforeststoprotectandconserveexistingforestsandwoodlands.Rapidurbanizationandtheconsequentdemandfortimberandenvironmentalserviceshaveledtoincreasedinvestmentsinafforestation,reforestationandconservation.Significantdevelopmentsinscienceandtechnology,includingthestrengtheningofskillsandcapacitiesbothwithinandoutsidethesector,havecontributedtotheefficientfunctioningofvalueaddition,tradeandmarketservicesallalongthevaluechain,andhavefurtherhelpedtoacceleratethetransformation.TheexperienceofChinaisparticularlynoteworthyconsideringthescaleandspeedoftheforesttransition.ThispaperendeavourstoexplainthefactorsinfluencingforesttransitioninChinaandthediversepathwaysthathavehelpedtoaccomplishstabilityandimprovementsintheforestsector.ThecaseofChinaprovidesparticularlyvaluablelessonstocountrieskeenonimprovingtheforestsectorinthelargercontextofchangeandthebroadnatureoftheinterventionsrequired.Summary©ShutterStock/aphotostoryThesociety–naturerelationshipisundergoingcontinuouschangesthataffectallhumanpursuits,includingthoseinforestry.Eversincehumancivilizationbegan,peoplehavemodifiedtheirenvironment,affectingforests,includingthegoodsandservicestheyprovide.Almostallcountrieshavegonethrough,andmanyarecurrentlygoingthrough,aphaseofdeforestationandforestdegradationduetoagriculturalexpansion,increasedexploitationofwoodandnon-woodforestproducts,miningandinfrastructuredevelopment.Transitionsfromagrariantoindustrial,andlatertopost-industrialsocieties,haveledtokeychangesintheuseofforests(FAO,2019).Whiledeforestationandforestdegradationpersistinmanycountries,manyhavesucceededinarrestingforestlossandincreasingtheextentofforests,aphenomenonoftenreferredtoas‘foresttransition’.IntheAsia-Pacificregion,China,India,Japan,theRepublicofKoreaandVietNamhavebeenparticularlysuccessfulinaccomplishingforesttransition(FAOandUNEP,2020).Severalstudiesattempttoexplainthefactorsinfluencingforesttransitionandthediversepathwaysbeingpursuedtoaccomplishstabilityandimprovementsontheforestfrontier(Zhang,2019).Thoughthecircumstancesunderwhichforesttransitionoccursdiffer,theexperienceofthesecountriesprovidevaluablelessonsinthelargercontextofchangeandthebroadnatureoftheinterventionsrequired.Amongthese,theexperienceofChinaisparticularlynoteworthyconsideringthescaleandspeedofforesttransition.ThereareseveralstudiesondifferentaspectsofforesttransitioninChina(see,forexample,Li,ChhatreandLiu,2019;Keetal.,2020).ThispaperprovidesanoverviewofthetransformationofforestsandforestryinChina,givingparticularattentiontothefollowing:∞importantchangesintheconditionofforests,especiallyrelatingtoarea,growingstock,andtheproduction,tradeandmanagementofkeyproductsfortheprovisionofimportantecosystemservices;∞factorsthathavecontributedtothetransformationoftheforestsector;∞emergingscenariosandtheirimplications;and∞lessonsfromtheexperienceofChina.Introduction:Achangingworld1©ShutterStock/aphotostoryIncreaseinforestcoverandgrowingstockYearForestcover(millionha)Annualincrease(000ha/year)Annualincrease(%)1990157.142000177.0019861.202010200.6123611.262020219.9819370.93Table1RateofforestcoverincreaseinChinaChangesintheforestsectorareassessedonthebasisofanumberofparameters,suchasforestcover,growingstock,theextentoftheareaprotected,andgrowthintheproduction,consumptionandtradeofforestproducts,allofwhichareacollectiveoutcomeofeffectivepolicies,investmentsandscience-basedinputs.Thoughchallengesexistindefiningthevariousparameters(forexample,howforestsaredefinedinnationalandglobalassessments),theydoformthebasisofassessmentsoflong-termtrendsandcross-countrycomparisons.SomeofthekeychangesobservedinforestresourcesinChinaareoutlinedbelow.FastestgrowthrateinforestcoverAmajordevelopmentintheforestsectorinChinaduringthelast30yearshasbeenthereversalofdeforestationthroughmassiveinvestmentsinafforestation,resultinginanincreaseinforestcoverfrom157millionhain1990to220millionhain2020(seeTable1)(FAO,2020a)andinanincreaseintheproportionofforestsfrom16.4percentto22.9percentoflandarea.Figure1providesanindicationoftheupwardtrendintheextentofforestcoverinChina.Globally,thecountryregisteredthehighestincreaseintheareaunderforestcoverfrom1990to2020.Amongthe236countriesandterritoriescoveredbytheFAOGlobalForestResourcesAssessment(FAO,2020a),Chinastandsoutintermsofitshighandconsistentincreaseinforestcoverfrom1990to2020.3Source:FAO,2020a.SOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE4GrowthintheextentofplantedandnaturallyregeneratedforestsTheincreaseintheextentofforestsencompassesbothnaturallyregeneratedareasandplantedforests,theformeronaccountoftheimprovedconservationofnaturalforests,includingtheimposingofabanonlogging,andthelatterthroughsystematicafforestationandreforestationefforts.Whiletheextentofnaturallyregeneratedforestsincreasedfrom113millionhatoover135millionhabetween1990and2020,plantedforestareaincreasedbyover40millionha(seeFigure2).Chinaisoneoftheveryfewcountriesintheworldwheretheextentofnaturallyregeneratedforestshasseenasignificantincreaseduringthelastthreedecades.Whilenaturallyregeneratedforestsregisteredadeclineof7.5percentand4.7percentintheworldandinAsia,respectively,itincreasedby19.5percentinChina.Theincreaseintheextentofplantedforestsismuchsharper.Globally,theextentofplantedforestsincreasedfrom170millionhato292.6millionha,whileinAsiatheincreaseduringthatperiodwasfrom74.2millionhato135.2millionha.Chinaaccountedforalmostone-thirdoftheincreaseintheglobalareaofplantedforests,whileitsshareinplantedforestgrowthinAsiawasnearlytwo-thirds.Thecountry’sshareinglobalplantedforestsincreasedfromabout26percentin1990tonearly29percentin2020(seeFigure3)(FAO,2020a,2020b).Figure1ForestcoverchangeinChina(millionha)250200150100500Millionha1990200020102020YearFigure2Changeintheextentofnaturallyregeneratedandplantedforests250200150100500Areainmillionha1990200020102020YearNaturallyregeneratedforestsPlantedforestsTotalSource:FAO,2020a(developedfromTable1).Source:FAO,2020a.5ExtentofotherwoodedlandItisnotjusttheextentofforeststhathasregisteredanincrease.Therehasalsobeenanincreaseintheareaofotherwoodedland,from101.5millionhain1990to109.5millionhain2020,whichisabout12percentofthelandareaofChina.Thecountryaccountsforabout57percentofotherwoodedlandinAsiaand11percentofthatintheworld(FAO,2020a,2020b).OtherlandwithtreecoverInadditiontotheareaclassifiedasforestsandotherwoodedland,thereareextensiveareasofotherlandwithtreecover.Availablestatisticsalsoindicateanincreaseintheextentofotherlandwithtreecoverduringthelastthreedecades(seeFigure4),whichsuggestsanincreaseinplantingactivitiesoutsideforests.Boththeareaundertreeorchardsandtheareaunderpalmshaveincreasedduringthelastthreedecadeslargelyduetovariousinitiatives,includinglarge-scalepublicinvolvementintree-plantingactivities(FAO,2020b).INCREASEINFORESTCOVERANDGROWINGSTOCKFigure3Shareofplantedforests300250200150100500Areainmillionha1990200020102020YearChinaRestofAsiaRestofWorldFigure4Changeintheextentofotherlandwithtreecover(areainmillionha)1251007550250Areainmillionha1990200020102020YearPalmsTreeorchardsSource:FAO,2020a,2020b.Source:FAO,2020a.SOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE6Figure5Changeinforestgrowingstock20151050Billionm31990200020102020YearNaturallyregeneratedforestsPlantedforestsTotalAnumberofstudieshaveshownthattreecoveronagriculturallandhasregisteredanincrease.In2000,themeantreecoveronthe1.69millionkm2ofagriculturallandinChinawasestimatedtobe11.36percent.Thisfigurehadincreasedto12.84percentby2010(Zomer,ÖbornandXu,2019).ThestudybyZomer,ÖbornandXu,(2019),whichalsoprovidesdisaggregatedinformationontheextentofagriculturallandunderdifferentcanopycoverclasses,alsonotesthat,inChina,theextentofagriculturallandwithatreecanopyofmorethan30percenthadincreasedsignificantly–byabout57500km2–between2000and2010.RapidincreaseingrowingstockChangesingrowingstockareanindicationoftheextentofeffortstomanageforestssustainably.TheforestsectorinChinahasperformedwellalsointhisarea,asboththetotalgrowingstockandtheper-hectaregrowingstockhaveincreased.ThetotalgrowingstockinforestsinChinaincreasedfrom10.48billionm3in1990to19.19billionm3in2020(seeFigure5).Thisamountstoacompoundedannualgrowthrateof2percent,whichenhancedthecountry’sshareofgrowingstockinAsiafrom20.3percentin1990to30.7percentin2020.Moreremarkableistheincreaseinthegrowingstockofplantedforests,whichincreasedfrom739millionm3in1990to4.05billionm3in2020,anannualcompoundedgrowthrateof5.8percent.Theper-hectaregrowingstockincreasedinbothnaturallyregeneratedforestsandplantedforests,from86.2m3perhato111.9m3perhainthecaseoftheformerand16.7m3perhato47.8m3perhainthecaseofthelatter.Thishaspavedthewayfortheenhancementofthecountry’sself-relianceinwoodproduction(FAO,2020a,2020b).GrowingprominenceofforestecosystemservicesThelastthreedecadeshavealsowitnessedachangeintheobjectiveofforestmanagement.Increasingemphasisisbeingplacedonimprovingforestecosystemhealthandresilience,especiallymitigatingandadaptingtoclimatechangeimpacts,conservingbiodiversityandprotectingwatersheds.Withthesignificantimprovementinpeople’slivingstandardsandariseinpublicawareness,thedemandforforestecosystemserviceshasincreasedsignificantly.Accordingly,theGovernmentofChinaispayingparticularattentiontoenhancingtheecological,culturalandspiritualvaluesofforests.Thereisaclearrecognitionthatthesustainabilityofeconomicdevelopmentisverymuchdependentonthehealthandvitalityofecosystems,andthishasledtotheimplementationofvariousecosystemrestorationprogrammesandtheexpansionofnationalparks,naturereserves,urbanforestsandothergreenareas.Source:FAO,2020a.7INCREASEINFORESTCOVERANDGROWINGSTOCKFigure6Forestareamanagedforkeyenvironmentalfunctions50403020100Areainmillionha1990200020102020YearBiodiversityconservationAreamanagedforsoilandwaterconservationTofulfildifferentfunctionseffectively,theGovernmentofChinahasgroupedforestsintotwobroadcategories:ecologicalforests,whichincludeprotectedforestsandspecialpurposeforests;andproductionforests,whichproducetimber,woodfuelandothereconomicallyimportantproducts.AccordingtovariousreportsofthenationalforestinventoryofChina(NationalForestryandGrasslandAdministration,variousyears),therewasanincreaseintheproportionofecologicalforeststototalforestsfrom17percentin1993to56percentin2018.Mostoftenforestsaremanagedtoaccomplishmultipleobjectives.Whileaparticularareaismanagedtofulfilaprimaryobjective,itoftenalsocontributestootherobjectives.Infact,intheearlystagesofafforestation,muchofthethrustwasonestablishingagreencoverandthiswasaccomplishedthroughthemonocultureofexoticspecies.Growingconcernaboutthelossofbiodiversityhasledtoconsiderableattentionbeingpaidtodiversifyingthespeciescompositionandtopromotingnativespecies.Thisishelpingtoprovideabalancedapproach,fulfillingbothproductiveandprotectivefunctions.Thecurrenttrendistoincreasetheareaearmarkedfortheprovisionofenvironmentalservices,suchasbiodiversityconservation,andsoilandwaterconservation.Basedonthenationalforestinventoriescarriedoutduringdifferentperiods,theGlobalForestResourcesAssessment2020identifiesbroadtrendsandprovidesinformationontheextentofforestsdesignatedtofulfilsomeoftheecosystemfunctions(FAO,2020a).AsindicatedinFigure6,theextentofforestsmanagedforsoilandwaterconservationregisteredasignificantincreasebetween1990and2010,andhasremainedstablesincethen.Theareadesignatedforbiodiversityconservationhasincreasedbymorethanfourfold,clearlysuggestingthatitisapriority.Chinahasalsopaidconsiderableattentiontotheprovisionofamenityvaluesbyestablishingforestparksandothergreenspaces,keepinginmindtheneedsofarapidlyurbanizingsociety.Apartfromprovidingrecreationalopportunities,forestparkshelptoprotectthenaturalheritageofthecountry.Between1995and2017,thenumberofnationalparksincreasedfrom750to3505,whiletheirdesignatedarearosefrom6.6millionhato20.28millionha(Keetal.,2019).Thedevelopmentofgreenspacesiswellintegratedinurbanplanning,andoneoftheapproachesistodevelop“nationalforestcities”.Accordingly,Guiyangwasdesignatedasthefirstnationalforestcity.By2019about194citieshadbeengiventhatstatus(Xinhuanet,2019),andithasbeenproposedthattheirnumberbeincreasedto300by2025(NationalForestryandGrasslandAdministration,2018).Source:FAO,2020a.©FAO/ZhangWanjieAtthesametimethattherehavebeenchangesintheconditionofforests,Chinahaswitnessedtherapidgrowthofforestindustries,makingitaleadingproducerofvalue-addedwoodproducts.Someofthekeychangesinthewood-processingsectorareoutlinedbelow.Declineinroundwoodproduction;increaseinindustrialroundwoodproductionBetween1990and2019roundwood(comprisedofindustrialroundwoodandwoodfuel)productiondeclinedfrom378millionm3to345millionm3.Interestingly,therehasbeenasignificantchangeintheproportionofindustrialroundwoodandwoodfuelasaproportionoftotalwoodproduction.Whileindustrialroundwoodproductiondoubledfrom91millionm3in1990to182millionm3in2019,woodfuelproductiondeclinedfrom287millionm3in1990to163millionm3in2019(seeFigure7).In1990,woodfuelaccountedfor76percentofroundwoodproduction,withtheremaining24percentbeingindustrialroundwood.By2019therelativeproportionofwoodfuelandindustrialroundwoodhadchangedto47percentand53percent,respectively(FAO,2020c).Thischangeitselfisanindicationofthemajortransformationintheforestsector,whichisattributableto:∞theenergytransitionfromwoodfueltoliquidpetroleumgasandelectricity,asaresultofhigherincomesandtheeaseofaccessfacilitatedthroughurbanization;and∞theincreaseduseofwoodforindustrialpurposesowingtotechnologicaladvancements.Further,Chinahasinvestedinimprovingenergyefficiencyintheuseofwoodfuel,whichhasenabledareductioninitsproductionandconsumption.ChinaasamajorproducerofforestproductsFigure7TrendintheproductionofwoodinChina4003002001000Millionm31990200020102019YearRoundwoodIndustrialroundwoodWoodfuelSource:FAO,2020c.9SOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE10200150100500Millionm31990200020102019YearChinaRestofAsiaRestofWorldFigure8IndustrialroundwoodimportsbyChina200150100500Millionm31990200020102019YearChinaRestofAsiaRestofWorldFigure9ChangeinthequantityofsawnwoodimportsAnimportanttransitionintheforestindustryinChinahasbeenthecountry’semergenceasamajorimporterofindustrialroundwoodandanexporterofvalue-addedproducts,suchaswood-basedpanels,paperandpaperboard,andwoodenfurniture.Themostremarkablechangehasbeenthegrowthintheshareofimportsofindustrialroundwood(seeFigure8).In1990Chinaimportedjust7.25millionm3ofindustrialroundwood,whichwasabout8.8percentofthetotalglobalimport.By2019thenumberhadincreasedto61.11millionm3,oralmost43.6percentofthetotalglobalimportofindustrialroundwood.Thus,thecountry’sdependenceonindustrialroundwoodimportshasincreasedsignificantlyduringthelastthreedecades.In1990,itsimportvalueaccountedforabout7.3percentoftheproductionofindustrialroundwood,whileby2019,ithadincreasedto55.2percent.Thispercentageincreaseisreflectedinthevalueofimports,whichincreasedfromUSD745millionin1990toUSD9.6billionin2019(FAO,2020c).Chinahasalsobecomeamajorproducerandimporterofsawnwoodduringthelastthreedecades.In1990itproducedjust23.6millionm3andimported1.3millionm3,or1.6percentoftheworld’stotalimport,whilein1990itimported39.5millionm3,amountingto26percentofthetotalglobalimport(seeFigure9)(FAO,2020c).By2019domesticsawnwoodproductionhadincreasedto90.3millionm3whileimportshadincreasedto39.5millionm3.Figure10providesanindicationofthechangeinsawnwoodproductioninChina,Asiaandtheworldduringthatperiod.Source:FAO,2020c.Source:FAO,2020c.11CHINAASAMAJORPRODUCEROFFORESTPRODUCTSFigure10Changeintheshareofsawnwoodproduction6005004003002001000Millionm319902019YearChinaRestofAsiaRestofWorldTheproductionofvalue-addedproducts,especiallywood-basedpanels,pulpforpaperandpaperboard,alsowitnessedaphenomenalexpansioninChina,asindicatedbelow(FAO,2020c):∞Wood-basedpanelproductionwasjust3millionm3in1990.Thisnumberincreasedto18.9millionm3in2000,106.1millionm3in2010and200millionm3in2019.In1990Chinaaccountedforjust2.4percentoftotalglobalproduction;by2019itproducedalmosthalf(49.8percent)oftheworld’swood-basedpanels.∞Thegrowthofpaperandpaperboardproductionisverysimilar.Itgrewfrom17.4milliontonnesin1990,accountingfor7.3percentofglobalproduction,to111.7milliontonnes,increasingthecountry’sshareofglobalproductionto27.7percent.Figure11Exportvalueofwoodenfurniture6050403020100Value(USDbillion)199019952000200520102011YearChinaWorldSource:FAO,2020c.Source:LebedysandLi,2014.SOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE12Theproductionandexportofsecondarywoodproducts,especiallywoodenfurniture,isanotherareawhereChinahasmaderemarkableprogress.In1990Chinawasaninsignificantplayerinthewoodenfurnituresectorandaccountedforabout0.7percentofthegrossvalueaddedbythefurnituresectorglobally.By2011thisfigurehadsoaredto16.3percent.Atthesametime,Chinahasbecomealeaderinfurnitureexports.In1990itaccountedforjust1.5percentoftheglobalvalueofexports;by2011thisfigurehadrisentoabout30percent(LebedysandLi,2014)(seeFigure11).Thistrendpersistedinsubsequentyears,andin2018Chinaaccountedfor31.6percentoftheglobalexportofwoodenfurniture(ITTO,2018).However,ChinesedominanceintheproductionandexportofwoodenfurnitureisfacingchallengesinviewofincreasingwagesinChinaandunresolvedtradedisputeswiththeUnitedStatesofAmerica,amajorimporterofChinesefurniture.13Thechangesinforestsandforestryoutlinedaboveareanoutcomeofthecollectiveimpactofmultiplefactors.Generally,mostforesttransitionsarepolicy-ormarket-driven,oracombinationofboth(FAO,2019).However,policyandmarketchangesarethemselvesdrivenbylargerchangesinsociety,asisthecaseofthetransformationofChinafromanagrariansocietytoanindustrialsociety.Thisfundamentalchangehasledtowide-rangingpolicyandinstitutionalchanges,alongwithincreasedinvestmentsthroughkeyprogrammes,andbackedupbydevelopmentsinscienceandtechnology.TheexpansionofglobaltradeandtheaccessionofChinatotheWorldTradeOrganizationenabledtherapidgrowthofmanufacturingandtrade,whichhasdirectlyandindirectlycontributedtotherapidgrowthoftheforestsector,especiallytheproductionandtradeofvariousforestproducts.Belowisabriefaccountofthekeydriversthathavedirectlyandindirectlycontributedtothetransformationoftheforestsector.EmergenceofChinaasanindustrializedeconomyDuringthelastthreedecadesChinahaswitnessedmajorchanges,especiallyontheeconomicfront.Foremostamongthesechangesistherapidgrowthinincome,makingitthelargesteconomyinpurchasingpowerparityandthesecondlargesteconomyincurrentexchangerates.Thegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)ofChinain1990wasjustUSD360.86billion;thisfigureincreasedtoUSD2.29trillionin2005andtoUSD14.34trillionin2019(WorldBank,2020a).Percapitaincomehasgrownrapidly,fromonlyaboutUSD318in1990toUSD10262in2019(seeFigure12).Whatcontributedtotheforesttransition?Figure12GrowthofpercapitaGDPinChina120001000080006000400020000Value(USD)1990199520002005201020152019YearSource:WorldBank,2020a.SOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE14Alongwiththerapidincreaseinincomes,theChineseeconomyhasundergonefundamentalstructuralchangesduringthelastthreedecades,mainlyintheformofasignificantreductionintheGDPshareofagricultureandacorrespondingincreaseintheshareofmanufacturingandservicessectors.In1990,theprimarysector(agriculture,forestryandfisheries)accountedfor26.6percentofGDP,whiletheindustrialandservicessectorsaccountedfor41percentand26.6percent,respectively.By2019,theshareoftheprimarysectorhaddeclinedto7.1percent,whilethesharesofthemanufacturingandservicessectorshadchangedto39percentand53.9percent,respectively(WorldBank,2020b).Thesechangesreflectasignificantreductioninlanddependency,thusreducingthepressureofagriculturalexpansiononforestsandexpandingthescopeofreleasinglandforafforestation.Amongthevariousimplicationsofsucharapidgrowthinincome,thefollowingareofparticularrelevance:∞Withtherapidgrowthofthemanufacturingandservicessectors,theimportanceofagricultureinprovidingincomeandemploymentdeclined,reducingthepressureonland,andthistosomeextentcreatedconditionsfavourablefortheconversionofmarginalagriculturallandtotreeplantations.∞HigherrevenueshaveenabledtheGovernmenttoallocatemoreresourcesforafforestationandtoimplementvariousforestprotectionmeasures;moreover,theopportunitiestoimportwoodreducedthepressureonforestsinthecountry,makingloggingbansmoreeffective.∞Increasedhouseholdincomes,rapidurbanizationandchangesinpoliciesandrulesrelatingtohomeownershiphaveledtoamassivespurtinconstruction,fuellingthedemandforsawnwood,wood-basedpanelsandfurniture.∞Urbanizationandhigherincomeshavealsoledtoanincreaseinthedemandforrecreationandaconsequentincreaseininvestmentsinurbangreenspaces,parksandsoforth.Thus,therapidgrowthinincomes,industrializationandurbanizationprovidedasolidfoun-dationforpolicyandinstitutionalreformsandincreasedinvestmentsintheforestsector,pavingthewayforforesttransition.EnvironmentalconcernsdrivingkeypolicychangesIntheearlydecadesofdevelopment,muchofthefocuswasonagriculturalandindustrialdevelopment,andenvironmentalconsiderationsweregivenlittleattention.Consequently,therewasanefforttoexpandagriculture,whichresultedinthecultivationoflowproductivityland,especiallyonsteepslopes,whiletheimpactonsoilerosionandhydrologywasignored.Similarly,meetingthedemandforwoodledtounsustainablelogging,againresultinginlanddegradation.Asthenegativeimpactsbecameobvious,therewereseveralglobalandnationalinitiativestopursuecorrectiveaction.Atthegloballevel,theUnitedNationsConferenceontheHumanEnvironment,heldinStockholmin1972,providedtheinitialimpetusforthepursuitofadevelopmentagendatakingintoaccounttheenvironmentaldimension.TheUnitedNationsConferenceonEnvironmentandDevelopment,heldinRiodeJaneiro,Brazil,in1992,andtheinternationalconventionsstemmingfromitwerethemajorturningpointinencouragingvariousnational-levelinitiatives.InpursuitofAgenda21,outlinedduringtheConferenceinRiodeJaneiro,Chinadevelopeditsown“Agenda21”in1994.Infollow-up,theStateForestAdministration(theprecursortotheNationalForestryandGrasslandAdministration)developedtheForestryActionPlanforChina’sAgenda21.15WHATCONTRIBUTEDTOTHEFORESTTRANSITION?Whiletheseeffortsdrewattentiontotheenvironmentalfunctionsofforestsandtheneedtomanagethemsustainably,criticaleventsatthenationalleveltriggeredconcreteaction.Undoubtedly,aseveredroughtin1997anddevastatingfloodingin1998marktheturningpointthatledtoanumberofpolicyandprogrammeinitiativesgivingprimacytoenvironmentalprotection,asdiscussedinthefollowingsections.TheenormousdamagecausedbythefloodingoftheYangtzeRiverbasinin1998(seeBox1)underpinnedtheneedtoprotectuplandsinordertoensurethatthemassiveurban/industrialinvestmentsinthedownstreamweresafeguarded.PolicyandinstitutionalchangesSincethefoundingofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,therehavebeensystematiceffortstoimprovethepolicy,legalandinstitutionalframeworkforthemanagementoflandandothernaturalresources,includingforests.Theannextothispaperprovidesachronologyofmajorpolicy,legalandinstitutionalchangesimplementedintheforestsectorinChina.KeychangesinlandownershipandmanagementduringthelastsevendecadesareoutlinedinTable2.Box1FloodsinChinain1998:AturningpointTheYangtzeRiver,atalengthof6300km,isthelongestriverinAsia.ItoriginatesintheQinghai-TibetanPlateauandflowseastwardsintotheEastChinaSea.About85percentofitsriverbasincomprisesmountainsandhills,and11percentisdenselypopulatedplainswithhigheconomicactivity.Ittraversesthrough11provinces,andimportantcitiesalongtheriverareChongqing,Yichang,Wuhan,NanjingandShanghai.AlthoughfloodeventsoccuralongtheYangtzeRiveranditsdrainagesystemannually,thedisastrousfloodin1998wasthesecondlargestfloodeventofthetwentiethcentury,afterthefloodingoftheYangtzeRiverin1954,whichwasapainfullessonforChinesesocietyintermsofbothliveslostandeconomiclosses.Inthesummerof1998,torrentialprecipitationcausedbythestrongestElNinophenomenoninthetwentiethcenturytriggeredthedevastatingfloodingoftheYangtzeRiveranditstributaries.AccordingtotheGovernmentofChina,thedisasteraffectedaboutone-fifthofthecountry’spopulation(223million)and3004peoplelosttheirlives.Inaddition,thedirecteconomicdamagewasestimatedtobeatleastUSD20billion,withdamagetocropsandagriculturalfacilitiesandinfrastructure(suchashouses,schools,roads,andthewatersupplyandirrigationsystem)(UNDACandUnitedNationsInter-AgencyMission,1998;Yang,2017).Furthermore,alonghistoryofunsustainableland-usepractices(suchasdeforestation)intheupstreamoftheYangtzeRiverandlandreclamationalongsidethewaterdrainagesystemledtoseveresoilerosion,waterdischargeandaccumulatedsedimentloadinginthemiddleandlowerreachesoftheriverbasin(Xuetal.,2005),thuscontributingtothedevelopmentofthedisasterandincreasingthedifficultiesoftherescue,preventionandmitigationmeasuresasthefloodshit.Thefloodsin1998raisedthealarmtorethinkthestrategyforrestoringdegradedecosystemsandimprovingdisastercontrolandwarningsystems.Specifically,theseactionsincludedthereconstructionofdrainagesystems,dredgingthemainchannelsofriverwater,relocatingpeoplelivinginflooddetentionpolders,andreforestingdeforestedmountainousareasintheupperreachesofthecatchmentarea.SOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE16YearMainpolicyandlegalchangesImportantoutcomes1949–1952•LandreformlegislationwaspromulgatedinJune1950.•Alllandswereconfiscatedandredistributedtoindividualfarmerstoenhancefoodproduction.•Dominanceofsmall-scale,privatelyownedfarms.1953–1958•Policyondevelopingagriculturalcooperatives.•Arableandforestlandswerepooledintocollectives,thusincreasinghouseholds’shareofbenefitsfromtheirwork.•Increasedcentralizationofforestmanagement.•Declineintheareaofforests.1958–1978•Accelerationofthecollectivizationprocessduringthe“GreatLeapForward”andthe“CulturalRevolution”,resultingintheformationoflargecommunes,productionbrigadesandproductionteams.•Thepolicyof“Siguding”waslaunchedin1960tostabilizethetenureofessentialresourcesforthecollectivizationofproduction.•NodifferentiationbetweenStateandcollectiveland.•Large-scaledeforestationanduplandreclamation.1978–2002•Decisionsonseveralissuesconcerningforestprotectionanddevelopment,includingthereformofcollectiveforestland.•Forestpoliciesof“Linyesanding”and“Liang-shan-dao-hu”wereenactedtoallocateforestresources.Thepolicyof“Siguding”wasreassessedsocertificatesforcollectiveforestscouldbeissued.•Officiallydefinedland-userightsandlandownership.Forestlandownershipcertificateswereissuedin1984.•Underthehouseholdcontractedresponsibilitysystem,collectivelandswereallocatedtomembersofthecollectiveequallyforaperiodof30years.•Improvementofcollectiveforestmanagement.•Duetounclearboundaries,ambiguoustenureandinconsistencyinpolicies,forestresourcescontinuedtodecline.2003onwards•Thepolicyof“AcceleratingForestryDevelopment”waselaboratedtoimproveruralresourcemanagement,andpilotprojects(inFujian,Jiangxi,LiaoningandZhejiangprovinces)oncollectiveforesttenurereformwerebegun.•In2008,thefullimplementationofthereformofcollectiveforeststenureandtheissuanceoftenurecertificatestoindividualhouseholdswereannounced.•Increasedincentivestoforestfarmerstoplanttreessupportedthroughawarenesscampaignsonenvironmentalprotection.•Awidearrayofflexiblemodelsofcooperationandcollaborationemergedinvolvinglandownersandtheprivatesector.Table2ChangesinlandownershipinChinaPriortothe1970s,themainobjectiveofforestmanagementwastimberproduction,whichsupportedpost-warreconstruction.Inefficientmanagementandunsustainableloggingpracticesledtotherapiddepletionofresources.Recognizingthedeclineinforestresources,theGovernmentfine-tunedthelegalandinstitutionalframework,placingmoreattentiononforestprotectionandondecentralizingforestmanagementthroughthehouseholdresponsibilitysystem,asfollows:17WHATCONTRIBUTEDTOTHEFORESTTRANSITION?Box2Reformofcollectiveforests:AmajorturningpointinChineseforestgovernanceOfthe304millionhaofforestlandsinChina,nearly60percenthavebeenundercollectiveownership,withtherestunderdirectgovernmentcontrol.Collectiveforestshavebeenfacinganumberofchallengesstemmingfromambiguousownership,alackoftrustamonglocalcommunities,andanill-definedmechanismforsharingmanagementresponsibility,aswellasthebenefitsfromforests.Thesechallengesresultedinpoormanagementandaconsequentdeclineinproductivity.Realizingtheneedformajorreforms,theGovernmentinitiatedatrialreformofcollectiveforestsinFujianProvincein2003,anddrawinguponthatexperience,thereformshavebeenimplementedthroughoutthecountrysince2008(Renetal.,2018).Collectiveforestsareassignedtohouseholdsonlong-termlease,whichclearlyspecifieshowthelandistobemanagedsystematically.Collectiveforesttractsaredividedintosmallplotsandallocatedtohouseholdsinanequitablemanner,withthehouseholdsreceivingforestpropertycertificates.Thosewhoreceiveforestlandshavefourrights,namelyinformation,management,dispositionandbenefit-sharing,foraperiodof70years.Undersuchatenureregime,forestfarmerscantransfertheirtenuresinvariousways,suchasthroughalease,subcontract,mortgageorjointventure.By2015,about180millionhaofcollectiveforestshadbeenassignedtohouseholds.Financialmechanismshavebeendevelopedtosupportthereformofcollectiveforests.In2009theBankofChina,theMinistryofFinance,theChinaBankingRegulatoryCommissionandtheStateForestAdministrationjointlydevelopedguidanceonfinancingservicestosupportforestrydevelopmentinthecontextofcollectiveforesttenurereforminordertoencouragehouseholdstomanagethelandefficiently.ForesttenuremortgagestoindividualhouseholdshaveamountedtoRMB22.14billion(approximatelyUSD3.2billion),coveringanareaof1.63millionha.aIncollaborationwithgovernmentagencies,bankshavedevelopedvarioustenurereformsupportmeasures,includingamicrocreditsystem,asubsidizedloansystemandamortgageloansystem.Ifcollectiveforestsaredesignatedasecologicalforests(andthusforecloseincome-generatingopportunitiesfromlogging),farmersarecompensatedforthepotentialincomelosses.Forexample,afarmermaintaininganecologicalforestatthenationallevelwascompensatedintheamountofRMB150/hain2010(approximatelyUSD22/ha).By2016,thisfigurehadbeenincreasedtoRMB170/ha(approximately26/ha).bSuchcompensationhasencouragedfarmerstoprotectandsustainablymanagetheforests.aDatabasedonvariousyearsoftheNationalForestryYearbookoftheNationalForestryandGrasslandAdministration.bDatabasedonvariousyearsoftheForestryDevelopmentReportoftheNationalForestryandGrasslandAdministration.∞TheopeningupoftheChineseeconomyin1981wasaturningpointanddirectlyandindirectlyimpactedallsectors,includingforestry.∞In1998,thebanontheloggingofnaturalforestswasintroduced.∞In1984,anationwidevoluntarytree-plantingprogrammewaslaunched.∞In2000,atwo-categorysystem–dividingforestsintotwoclasses,namelyecologicalforestsandcommercialforests–wasintroduced.Toencouragetheprotectionofecologicalforests,acompensationsystemwasintroduced.Themostfar-reachingpolicyreformduringthelasttwodecadeshaslikelybeenthereformofcollectiveforests(seeBox2).Assigningresponsibilitytoindividualhouseholdstomanageforestsonalong-termbasiswasamajorstep,incentivizingimprovedmanagement.Apartfromassigningrights,theGovernmentputinplaceawidearrayofarrangements,includingfinancialandtechnicalsupportmechanisms,toencourageimprovedforestmanagement.Thedevelopmentofmarketsandchangesintaxsystemsfurtherencouragedlandholderinvolvement.SOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE18NameKeyobjectivesandpriorityareasYearordecadeprogrammelaunchedFast-GrowingandHigh-YieldingTimberPlantationDevelopmentProgrammeAugmentswoodsupplythroughtheestablishmentofplantationstomeetthegrowingdemandforwood.1980sShelterbeltsDevelopmentProgrammeAimstoestablishaprotectivebeltintheThree-NorthRegion,themiddleandlowerreachesoftheYangtzeRiverandotherecologicallyfragileareas.1980sConversionofCroplandstoForestsandGrasslandsProgramme(SlopingLandConversionProgramme)AlsoknownastheGrain-for-GreenProgramme,itaimstoreconvertcroplandsinslopingareastoforestsandgrasslandsthroughtheprovisionofincentivestolandholders.1999NaturalForestProtectionProgrammePrimarilyfocusedonprotectingnaturalforestsintheupperandmiddlereachesoftheYellowandYangtzerivers.Thisprogrammehasthreecomponents:(a)restrictingtheloggingofnaturalforests,(b)strengtheningforestprotectionand(c)resettlingworkersaffectedbyloggingrestrictions.2000SandificationControlProgrammeforAreasintheVicinityofBeijingandTianjinAimstocurbsandstormsandthespreadofsandydesertinthecitiesofBeijingandTianjin,theprovincesofHebei,ShanxiandShandong,andtheInnerMongoliaAutonomousRegion.2000WildlifeConservationandNatureReserveDevelopmentProgrammeAimstoconservebiodiversityandprotectfloraandfaunathroughtheestablishmentandmanagementofprotectedareas,includingnaturereservesandwetlands.2001Table3KeynationalforestryprogrammesImplementationofkeyforestryprogrammesApartfromsuchpath-breakingtenurereforms,whatdistinguishesthepost-1990periodisthemassiveinvestmentinforestrythroughsixkeynationalforestryprogrammes(seeTable3).NodoubtChinahadimplementedvariousprogrammesearlieraswell,buttheydidnothaveastrongimpact,andrestorationandreforestationeffortsdidnotoftenyieldthedesiredoutcomes.Inmanycasesthesurvivalrateofseedlingswaslowandtherewasaneedtomobilizeresourcesandinstitutionalcapacityonamuchlargerscale.Undoubtedlythedestructioncausedbythefloodsin1998providedtheimpetustoimprovethevegetativecoverintheupperreachesoftheriversandtherewasstrongpoliticalcommitmenttoarrestandreverseforestdegradation.Severalstudieshavebeenundertakenontherationaleofthesixkeyforestryprogrammes(see,forexample,Delang,2016)andhowtheyhavecontributedtofulfillingtheGovernment’scommitments.Thesekeyforestryprogrammesareconsideredaslandmarkinitiatives,withtheGovernmentallocatingsubstantialfinancialandadministrativeresourcestoensuretheirsuccess.Itisreportedthatthesesixprogrammestogethercoverabout300millionhawithanestimatedcostofRMB900billion(approximatelyUSD142.8billion)(seeDelang,2016).Therehasbeenclearrecognitionoftheimportanceofforestryintheprovisionofecosystemservicescriticaltothecountry’seconomicdevelopment.Togetherthesesixprogrammescoveralmosttheentirecountry,addressingallthekeyforestryissues,includingtheprotectionofnatural19WHATCONTRIBUTEDTOTHEFORESTTRANSITION?Box3ConversionofCroplandstoForestsandGrasslandsProgrammeBeingadenselypopulatedmountainouscountry(with65percentofthelandareabeingmountainous),slopinglandshavebeenundercultivationinChinaforalongtime,raisingchallengeswithregardtowatershedprotection.Theseverefloodingin1998,whichledtothedeathofover3000peopleandaffected223millionpeoplein29provinces,underpinnedtheneedtoimprovethemanagementofslopinglands.However,mostofthelandisheldbysmallholders,andfarmingiscriticalforlivelihoodsecurity.ItwasinthiscontextthatChinalaunchedtheConversionofCroplandstoForestsandGrasslandsProgrammein1999torestorevegetationonslopinglandsbyincentivizingfarmerstoshiftawayfromfarming.ThroughtheProgramme(alsoreferredtoastheSlopingLandConversionProgrammeortheGrain-for-GreenProgramme),cashorgrainsubsidieshavebeenprovidedtofarmerswhoconverttheirfarmlandstotreeorgrasscoverinordertoreducesoilerosionandtoprotectwatersheds.Initiallycompensationwaspaidingrain,butin2004thiswaschangedtoacashsubsidy.Thedurationofthesubsidyvariesdependingonthetypeofvegetationre-established:eightyearsforecologicalforests,fiveyearsforeconomicforestsandtwoyearsforgrasslands.Inadditiontothecashorgrainsubsidies,technicalsupportisprovided,particularlyinrelationtothechoiceofspecies,theprovisionofplantingmaterials,andplantingandmaintenance.PovertyreductionandtheimprovementoflivelihoodsinruralcommunitiesareintegraltotheProgramme,andsupportisprovidedforawidearrayofalternativemeansoflivelihood.WhilemonocultureplantationsdominatedtheProgrammeintheearlyyears,theemphasishasrecentlybeenonthedevelopmentofmultispeciesuneven-agedforests.Bymid-2019some33.5millionhaofcroplandshadbeenconvertedundertheProgramme.AtacostofaboutRMB500billion(approximatelyUSD72.5billion)sofar,itislikelythelargestpublicinvestmentinanecosystemserviceprogrammeintheworld.SeveralstudieshavehighlightedthepositiveimpactsoftheProgramme,includingitsroleinimprovingvegetativecoverandcarbonstocks,andinincreasingruralincomes(seeRodriguezetal.,2016).forests,theconversionoflowproductivityslopingagriculturallandtograsslandsandforeststoreducesoilerosionandtoprotectwatersheds,arrestingdesertificationbywayoftheestablishmentofshelterbelts,therestorationandrehabilitationofdegradedlands,theconservationoffloraandfauna,andthestrengtheningofwoodproductionthroughhigh-yieldingplantationstoreducethepressureonnaturalforests.Inthepast,naturalforestswerethemainsourceofwoodsupply.Theloggingbannotonlyaffectedthewoodsupplybutalsoledtolarge-scaleunemploymentamongthoseemployedbyforestryenterprises.Yet,theGovernmentwentaheadwiththeprogrammes,demonstratingthecommitmenttoarrestdegradationnotwithstandingtheshort-termchallenges.TheGovernmenthasdevelopedawidearrayofmechanismstoencourageandincentivizetheparticipationofstakeholders,especiallylandholders.ThemostnotableistheprovisionofcompensationorsubsidiestoincentivizetheimplementationoftheConversionofCroplandstoForestsandGrasslandsProgramme.Landholdersconvertingtheiragriculturallandtoforestsandgrasslandsarecompensatedthroughcashorgrainsubsidiesforthelossestheysuffer(seeBox3).Ithasbecomethelargestpubliclyfundedecosystemservicesprogrammefocusedontheprovisionofwatershedservicesintheworld.Overallthepost-1998periodwitnessedarapidincreaseingovernmentfundingforforestry,risingfromUSD680millionin1998toUSD1.8billionin2000,andthentoUSD12.7billionin2015(FAO,2015).Furthermore,theGovernmentprovidedvariousincentivestotheprivatesector,especiallyintheformoftaxconcessionstoestablishindustrialunits.Tenurereforms,coupledwithimprovedaccesstofundingthroughnon-traditionalmechanisms,haveboostedinvestmentsinforestconservation.Provincialandcity-leveladministrationshavebeencompetingwitheachother,offeringconcessionsfortheestablishmentofindustrialunits.Inadditiontoforeigndirectinvestments,Chinahasalsobeenabletogarnersupportfrombilateralandmultilateralinstitutions.SOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE20Degree1990200020102016Doctoraldegree1197598580Master’sdegree33142048006505Bachelor’sdegree457858263269850087Techniciancertificate/diploma7483275066380991405Table4NumberofstudentsgraduatingfromforestryeducationalinstitutionsSource:FAO,2020a.ScienceandtechnologytransformingtheforestsectorAdvancementsinscienceandtechnologyplayacriticalroleinenhancingefficiencyintheuseofresources,andtherearedirectandindirectimplicationsforforestry.Chinahasmademajorstridesintechnologicaldevelopments,especiallythroughheavyinvestmentsinscienceandtechnologyinfrastructure,humanresourcesandbuildingstronginternationalpartnerships.Allofthekeyindicatorsofscienceandtechnologydevelopmentsuggestarapidsurgeinthecountry’spositionasaleaderinglobalscienceandtechnologyefforts.ThegrossdomesticexpenditureonresearchanddevelopmentofChinaisanexample:thecountry’sGDPratioincreasedfrom0.9percentin2000to2.1percentin2018.In2000China’sexpenditureonresearchanddevelopment(R&D)wasonlyUSD33.1billionandby2017thisfigurehassoaredtoUSD496billion.SomenotableindicatorsofR&DgrowthinChinaare(seeNSF/NSB,2020):∞Thecountry’sannualR&Dexpendituregrewattherateof17.3percentduringtheperiodfrom2010to2017,whichwasthefastestgrowthrateofanycountry.∞Chinaaccountedforone-thirdofthetotalglobalgrowthinR&Dexpenditurebetween2010and2017.∞In2018Chinaaccountedfornearlyhalf(49.4percent)ofallofthepatentfamiliesregisteredworldwide.Japanoccupiedthesecondpositionwith17.5percent,clearlyindicatingthemagnitudeofscientificoutputsfromChina.∞In2000Chinaaccountedforonly5percentofrefereedscienceandengineeringpublicationsworldwide.By2018thisfigurehadincreasedto21percent.∞TheimpactofinvestmentsinscienceandtechnologyisevidentfromtheshareofvalueaddedgeneratedbyR&Dintensiveindustries.In2003thecountry’sshareofvalueaddedinR&Dintensiveindustrywasjust6percent,whilethatoftheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesofAmericawas25percentand38percent,respectively.By2018theshareofChinahadreached21percentwhiletheshareoftheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStateshaddeclinedto19percentand12percent,respectively.Forestryhasbenefitedconsiderablyfromtheoverallthrustgiventothedevelopmentofscienceandtechnology,whichhashelpedtoimproveeveryaspectofforestry,includingtheconservationandmanagementofforestresources,andthedevelopmentofnewprocessesandproductsfromwoodandnon-woodforestproducts.Sincethe1980s,considerableprogresshasbeenmadeintheapplicationofinformationandcommunicationstechnologies,withthreesegments,namelye-governance,e-commerceande-community,receivingparticularattention.By2010thee-governancesystemhadbeenestablishedandfurthereffortscontinuedtomodernizeforestmanagement(Li,2011).In2010Chinalauncheda20-yearforestrydevelopmentstrategytobeimplementedinthreestages.Thefirststage,implementedin2011–2015,focusedonusingdigitalforestrytoimproveforestresource21WHATCONTRIBUTEDTOTHEFORESTTRANSITION?Box4BambooresourcesinChinaandtechnologiesfortheirutilizationWith39generaand837species,Chinahastherichestbambooresourcesintheworld(StateForestryAdministration,2006).Realizingthemultiplebenefitsfrombamboo,theGovernmentofChinahaspaidconsiderableattentiontothedevelopmentofbambooresourcesandtheirefficientutilization,adoptinginnovativetechnologieswithparticularattentionpaidtoenhancingthelivelihoodofruralcommunities.Theextentofbambooplantationsgrewfrom3.86millionhain1990to6.50millionhain2010.aSome12756businessesareinvolvedintheprocessingofbamboo,andemphasisisplacedonmakinguseofeverypartofthebambootoproduceawiderangeofproducts.Theintegratedapproachadoptedbythebusinessesensuresnearly100percentutilizationofbamboo(Fei,2019).Businessesdeployawiderangeofprocessesthatbenefitthelocalcommunities.Thewidearrayofproductsmadefrombambooincludesbambooboard,laminatedbambooflooring,furniture,handicrafts,paper,food(especiallybambooshootsandbamboodrinks),variousbamboofibreproductsandcharcoal.Accordingtosomereports,bambooisusedintheproductionofnearly10000products,largelyonaccountofthewiderangeoftechnologiesdeployed(Fei,2019).Considerableeffortsareunderwaytodevelopbamboo-basedstructuralmaterialasasubstituteforwoodthroughbamboorecombinationtechnology(seeHuangetal.,2019).Chinahasemergedasthelargestproducerandexporterofbambooandbamboo-basedproducts.Bambooshootproductionincreasedfrom174500tonnesin1995to771160tonnesin2015.In2017thevalueofthebambooindustrywasestimatedtobeRMB245.6billion(approximatelyUSD36.7billion),andby2020thisfigureisexpectedtoincreasetoRMB336billion(approximatelyUSD50.1billion).bApartfromtheincomeandemploymentgeneratedthroughvariousbambooproducts,bambooisalsobecomingimportantinthecontextofecotourism,consideringthefactthatbamboohasbeenanintegralpartofthecultureofalargenumberofpeopleinChina.aDatabasedonthe1990and2010editionsoftheChinaForestryStatisticalYearbookoftheNationalForestryandGrasslandAdministration.bDatabasedonthe2017and2020editionsoftheChinaForestryStatisticalYearbookoftheNationalForestryandGrasslandAdministration.monitoring,forest-relateddiseasemonitoring,forestindustrydevelopmentandInternetinfrastructuredevelopment.Thecurrentphase(2016–2020)ofscienceandtechnologyfocusesondevelopingaframeworkfor‘smartforestry’throughthewideruseofmobilecommunicationnetworks,theInternetandcloudcomputing.Thethirdstage(2021–2030)willfurtherdeepenthefusionofinformationmanagementandmodernizationtooptimizetheprovisionofforestecosystemservicesstrivingtoachieveabalancebetweenconservationanddevelopment(Li,2011).AdvancementsinforestrysciencearespearheadedbynationalinstitutionssuchastheChineseAcademyofForestryandthelargenumberofuniversitiesprovidingthefoundationforforestryresearchandeducation.Thesignificantincreaseinthenumberofgraduatesacquiringvariouslevelsofqualificationduringthelastthreedecades(seeTable4)isanindirectindicationoftheGovernment’seffortstoenhancethescientificworkforceinforestry(FAO,2020b).Almostallareasofforestryandforestproductdevelopmenthaveimprovedduringthelastthreedecades.Significantcontributionstoimprovingtheconditionofforestshavebeenmadethroughadvancementsintheassessmentofresources;inthemonitoringofchange,includingtheoutbreaksofpestsanddiseases;intheemergencyresponsetofire;andinsilvicultureandthemanagementofforests;aswellasthewideruseofimprovedinformationandcommunicationstechnologies.Whilemanyofthedevelopmentsintechnologieswithregardtotheconservationandmanagementofforestsarespearheadedbypublicsectorinstitutions,thedevelopmentofnewproductsandprocessesareundertakenbytheprivatesector,oftenincollaborationwithpublicsectorresearchinstitutions.SOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE22Box5CombatingdesertificationinnorthernChinaDesertificationremainsamajorprobleminChinaand,asperthenationaldesertificationreportpublishedin2006,some263millionha,orabout27.5percentofthecountry’slandarea,isaffectedbydesertification(CCICCD,2006).Mostofthecountry’sdesertifiedlandisfoundintheautonomousregionsofXinjiangUighur,InnerMongoliaandTibet,andtheprovincesofGansuandQinghai;and95percentoftheareasofthoseregionsandprovincesaremadeupofdesertifiedland.Desertificationisaprocessdrivenbymultiplefactors,includingglobalwarming,landreclamation,overgrazing,theremovalofvegetationandunsustainablewatermanagementpractices.Some400millionpeopleareaffectedbydesertificationandtheannualeconomiclossresultingfromthephenomenonisestimatedtobeaboutRMB50billion(approximatelyUSD6.3billion).TacklingdesertificationhasemergedasathrustareafortheGovernment,asarticulatedintheLawofthePeople’sRepublicofChinaonPreventionandControlofDesertificationof2001andimplementedthroughvariouskeyprogrammes(suchastheThree-NorthForestShelterbeltProgrammeandtheSandificationControlProgrammeforAreasintheVicinityofBeijingandTianjing).Theapplicationofscienceandtechnologyplaysakeyroleintheseefforts.Considerableemphasisisgiventocultivatespeciesandprovenancesthatareabletowithstandtheharshenvironmentalconditions,especiallydroughtandoutbreaksofpestsanddiseases;tobreedsuitablelivestock;toproviderenewableenergysources(solar,windandbiofuel);andtoputinplaceacomprehensivemonitoringsystemtoassessperformanceandtoimprovethevariouspractices.Theseprogrammesaredesignedandimplementedthroughastrongcollaborativeeffortinvolvingresearchinstitutions,localcommunities,governmentagenciesandinternationalorganizations.Muchofthesuccessofthedesertificationcontrolprogrammesstemsfromanintegratedapproachbasedonthelatestdevelopmentsinscienceandtechnologyandfullyadaptedtothelocalcontextwiththefullinvolvementofkeystakeholders.Chinahasmadesignificanttechnologicalprogressinseveralareasofforestry,includinggenetics,treeimprovement,theassessmentofresources,thebreedingofrareandendangeredplantsandanimals,themonitoringofecosystemservices,andthedevelopmentofadvancedmaterialsandproductssuchasnanofibres.Oneareathatdemonstratestheprogressinscienceandtechnologyisthecultivationandprocessingofbamboo(seeBox4).Importantadvanceshavebeenmadeinnewtechnologiesforafforestationandreforestation,especiallyinenvironmentallychallengingareaswhereadverseconditionsaffectplantgrowth.Combatingdesertificationinvolvesimprovingtechnologiesinseveralconnectedareas,coveringallaspectsofecosystemrestorationlinkedtoincreasingresilienceandimprovinglivelihoods(seeBox5).23WhiletheassessmentthusfarclearlyindicatesthatChinahasbeenabletoaccomplishforesttransitionandhasemergedasamajorglobalplayerinforestry,itispertinenttoconsiderhowthefuturemayunfoldandwhatcouldhappentoforestsandforestryinthenextfewdecades.Mostofthetransitionobservedsofarintheworldhasbeensustainedandnoreversalhasbeenreportedyet,thoughsuchapossibilitycannotbeentirelyruledoutinthecontextofcertaindrivers.Forexample,eventsrelatingtoclimatechange–drought,fireandpestoutbreaks–couldhaveadevastatingimpact,negatingtheaccomplishmentsmadethusfar.Therearealsoseveralotheruncertaintiesthatstemfromchangesinthenationalandinternationalsituation.TheoutbreakofCOVID-19anditsimpactontheglobaleconomyisofparticularconcernconsideringthecontractionoftheglobaleconomyanditsconsequencesoninvestments,trade,travelandtourism.SomeofthefactorsthatcouldimpactfuturedevelopmentsintheforestsectorinChinaare:∞demographicchanges;∞economicchanges,includinggrowthinincomes,deglobalizationandchangesintradeandinvestments;and∞environmentalchallenges,especiallythosestemmingfromclimatechange.DemographicchangesThepopulationgrowthratewillcontinuetodecline,notwithstandingtherepealoftheOne-ChildPolicyin2016,anditisestimatedthat,afterreachingapeakof1.46billionpeoplein2030,thepopulationwillstartdeclining,reaching1.43billionby2050(seeFigure13).Atthesametimethepaceofurbanizationwillcontinuetoaccelerate,reachingalmost70percentin2030and78percentin2050.Anotherkeydemographicchangewillbeanageingpopulation,withthemedianageofthepopulationincreasingfrom24.9yearsin1990to38.4yearsin2020,46.3yearsin2040and47.6yearsin2050.Old-agedependencyastheratioofpeople65yearsorabovedividedbythoseintheagerangeof15to64yearsreachedabout17.0in2020,andthisfigurewillincreaseto38.3and43.6in2040and2050,respectively(WorldPopulationProspects,2019).Thesedemographicchangesareexpectedtohaveimportantdirectandindirectimpactsontheeconomyandtheforestsector,especiallyonthedemandforproductsandservicesandtheavailabilityofforestryworkers,amongothers.Anageingpopulationhasoftenledtomajorshiftsinhousingdemand,therebyimpactingthedemandforwood.ThefutureofforesttransitioninChinaSOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE24Figure13ChangeintotalandinurbanpopulationinChina16001400120010008006004002000Million1990200020102020203020402050YearUrbanTotalEconomicchangesThegrowthinincomeswillundoubtedlyremainakeyfactorimpactingforestrydirectlyandindirectly.Asdiscussedabove,therapidgrowthinincomesduringthelastthreedecadesandstructuralchangesintheeconomy,andinparticulartheincreaseintheshareofthemanufacturingandservicessectors,havereducedthepressureonlandandcontributedtoanunprecedentedreductioninpoverty.However,theoutbreakofCOVID-19hasledtoeconomiccontraction,whichin2020isestimatedatabout5.2percent(WorldBank,2020c).Assuminganearlyrecovery,theWorldBankestimatesthatin2021theglobalGDPwillgrowbyabout4.2percent.ThetimelyinterventionofChinaindealingwithCOVID-19hashelpedthecountrytominimizetheimpactongrowth:theWorldBankhasprojectedthecountry’sGDPgrowthtobe1.0percentin2020and6.9percentin2021.ThoughCOVID-19hasdisruptedglobalsupplychains,andthereisconsiderableuncertaintyaboutthenatureoffuturesupplychains,allindicationsarethatinthelongrunnewsupplychainswillemergeandglobalizationwillbebackontrack,andtherecouldbequalitativedifferencesinthenatureofglobalization.Theexperienceoftherecessionsthathaveoccurredduringthelast150years,includingthosetriggeredbypandemics,clearlyindicatesthattheirnegativeimpactstendtobelargelyshort-ormedium-term.Inconsideringpost-COVID-19scenariosfortheforestsectorinChina,thefollowingrequirein-depthassessment:∞Theinward-lookingpoliciesofsomecountriescouldaccentuatethesupplychaindisruptionsaffectingimportsandexports,includingforestproductproductionandtradeintheshort-andmedium-term.Historicaltrendssuggesttheinevitabilityofcontinuedglobalization,althoughtheremaybequalitativechanges.Newproducersandconsumersmayemerge,whichwouldalterthelocationsofproductionandconsumption,andhelptodevelopnewsupplychains.Ongoingefforts,suchastheBeltandRoadInitiative,couldhelptoacceleratethepaceofpost-COVID-19globalization.Source:WorldPopulationProspects,2019.25THEFUTUREOFFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINA∞DuringtheinitialphaseofeconomicdevelopmentinChina,emphasishasbeenonexport-ledgrowth,makingitthefactoryoftheworld.However,ashiftisalreadyevident,asChinabeginstorelymoreondomesticdemand,facilitatedbythegrowthofpercapitaincomeandthecontinuedswellingofthemiddleclass.Thiswillalsoimpacttheforestsector,withthepossibilityofbringingaboutchangesinthewood-processingsector.∞Amajorshiftisalreadyevidentwithregardtothenatureofthegoodsproducedandexported.Chinahasbecomeamajorproducerandexporterofcapitalgoods,whileitsshareoftheproductionandexportofconsumergoodshasbeendecliningsince1990.IthasbecomeamajorsourceofcapitalgoodsforcountriessuchasAustralia,India,JapanandtheUnitedStatesofAmerica.Therearealreadyindicationsthatlabour-intensiveproductionismovingoutofChina,whilethecountryisincreasinglybecomingaproduceroftechnology-intensivecapitalandintermediategoods.Takingadvantageofdevelopmentsinscience,Chinacouldemergeasaleaderinforestrymachinery,toolsandsoforth,withtheproductionofconsumergoodsshiftingtoothercountries.EnvironmentalchallengesClimatechangewillremainacriticalconcernforChinaandtheworld,andhowtheissueisaddressednationallyandinternationallywillhavemultipledirectandindirectimpactsonforestsandforestryinChina.IncompliancewiththeParisAgreement,Chinahasprepareditsnationallydeterminedcontribution,outliningamultiprongedpolicyandstrategyaimedatreducingemissionsandenhancingforestcarbonsinks.Forestryhasbeengivenakeyroleinclimatechangemitigationandadaptation,withanemphasison:∞enhancingafforestation,promotingvoluntarytreeplantingbyallcitizens,continuingtheimplementationofkeyecologicalprogrammes(includingtheNaturalForestProtectionProgramme,theConversionofCroplandstoForestsandGrasslandsProgramme,theSandificationControlProgrammeforAreasintheVicinityofBeijingandTianjin,andtheShelterbeltsDevelopmentProgramme),controllingdesertification,conservingwaterandsoil,strengtheningforesttendingandmanagement,andincreasingtheforestcarbonsinks;∞strengtheningforestdisasterpreventionandforestresourceprotection,andreducingdeforestation-relatedemissions;∞strengtheningtheprotectionandrestorationofwetlands,andincreasingthecarbonstoragecapacityofwetlands;and∞continuingtherestorationofgrasslands,maintainingthebalancebetweentherestorationofthegrasslandecosystemandtheraisingoflivestock,preventinggrasslanddegradation,restoringthevegetationofgrasslands,strengtheningdisasterpreventionandfarmlandprotection,andimprovingthecarbonstorageofsoil.Othercomponentsofthenationallydeterminedcontribution,suchasreducingemissionsfrombuildingconstructionandtheoverallobjectiveofpromotingalowcarbonfootprintlife,willalsohaveimportantimplicationsforforestryandtheforestindustry.Amajorclimatechange-relatedchallengethatChinawillhavetoconfrontistheneedtosafeguardtheforestandcarbonstockthathasbeenbuiltupduringthelastcoupleofdecadesfromlossduetofire,pestsanddiseases.Forestfires,accentuatedbydroughts,havebecomeamajorprobleminmanycountries.Infact,firescouldbecomeakeyfactorthatcouldreverseforesttransitionwithinashortperiod.Between2003and2006fireincidencesincreasedinChina,withanareaof269000haaffected.Theareaaffectedbypestsanddiseasesisalsoshowinganupwardtrend,increasingfrom7.7millionhain2002to10.4millionhain2017.Maintainingthehealthandvitalityofforestswillbeamajorchallenge,especiallywithregardtoreducingtherisksduetofireandpests,potentiallyreversingthegainsmadethusfar.©FAO/PanYaoAmajoraccomplishmentofChinaduringthelastthreedecadeshasbeenitsabilitytoreversedeforestationandbuildupitsforestcapitalthroughawidearrayofinterventions,includingarrestingdegradationbyputtingabanonloggingnaturalforests,andlarge-scaleafforestationandreforestation.Incomparisonwiththesituationelsewhere,theforesttransitioninChinahasbeenquiterapid,largelybecauseofthecollectiveimpactofseveralfactors,assummarizedbelow:∞Chinahasbeengoingthroughaprocessofrapideconomicdevelopmentthathasresultedinanincreaseinincomesandmajorstructuralshiftsintheeconomy,withasignificantdeclineintheroleoftheprimarysectorinemploymentandincome.Thisprocesshasalsoledtorapidurbanizationandindustrialization(andtheexpansionofurbanemploymentinindustriesandtheservicessector),reducingthepressureonland.∞HigherrevenueshaveenabledtheGovernmenttoincreaseitssupportforwide-rangingenvironmentalprotectionmeasures,includingafforestationandreforestation.Therehasbeenasignificantincreaseintheallocationofresourcestoforestrythroughawiderangeoffinancingarrangementsthathaveincentivizedconservationandreforestationefforts.∞Environmentalconcerns,especiallyclimatechange,watersheddegradation,desertificationandbiodiversityloss,havetriggeredanumberofresponses,includingbansonloggingnaturalforests,anincreaseintheextentofprotectedareas,andeffortstoafforestandreforestdegradedlands.Thedevastatingfloodsin1998broughtstrongpoliticalsupporttoforestry.∞Asignificantnumberofeffectivepolicyandlegalchanges,andinstitutionalreforms,alongwithincreasedinvestments,havehelpedtoacceleratetheforesttransitionprocess.Thereformofcollectiveforests,whichconferredimportantrightstoindividualhouseholds,wasoneofthemostimportantpolicyreforms.∞Theseeffortshavebeenacceleratedthroughimprovedhumanresourcedevelopment,especiallythedevelopmentofhighlycompetentprofessionalsandinstitutions.Chinahasmadeconsiderableinvestmentsinbuildingscienceandtechnologycapabilitieswithinandoutsidetheforestsector,whichhasimprovedallaspectsoftheconservationanddevelopmentofforestresources,aswellasvalueadditionthroughthedevelopmentofnewproductsandprocesses.∞Aneconomicboom,coupledwithrapidurbanizationandtheconsequentdemandforhousingandotherinfrastructure,hasincreasedthedemandforwoodandwoodproducts.HigherincomesandgrowthintradehaveenabledChinatosourcewoodfromothercountries.Therehasbeenarapidexpansionofwoodprocessingcapacity,enablingChinatomeettheburgeoningdomesticdemandandtobecomeanetexporterofvariousproducts.LessonsfromtheforesttransitioninChina27SOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE28∞Thepost-1990periodhaswitnessedanaccelerationinthepaceofglobalization,enablingincreasedinvestments,thetransferoftechnologyandthetradeofproducts–bothrawmaterialandfinishedproducts.Chinahasbeenabletotakefulladvantageoftheseopportunities,whichhashelpedittobecometheworld’slargestimporteroftropicaltimber,aswellasthelargestexporterofseveralproducts,suchaspanelproducts,paperandpaperboard,andfurniture.Thesurgeindomesticdemandforvariousproducts,especiallyinthecontextofrapidgrowthinconstruction,couldbemetthroughimportsoftimberanditsdomesticprocessinginChina.TheexperienceofChinaduringthelastthreedecadesprovidesimportantlessonsandistheoutcomeofauniqueconfluenceoffactors.Takingintoaccountthateachcountry’ssituationisdifferent,itisdifficulttoofferbroadrecommendationsaboutwhatmaybedonetoaccomplishforesttransitionsandtomakesustainableforestmanagementworkable.YettheexperienceofChinadoesgivesomeindicationofkeyelementsthatneedtobeinplaceinacountryinordertoaccomplishforesttransition,asdiscussedbelow:∞Almostallcountrieshaveaccomplishedforesttransitioninthecontextofrapidindustrializationandgrowthinincomes,reducingthedependenceonland.Afavourablemacroeconomicenvironmentthatenablesthedevelopmentofanindustrialeconomyhelpstoreducethedirectandindirectpressureonland.Thisisparticularlysointhecaseofcountrieswithhighpopulationdensityandlowpercapitalandresources.∞Arobustpolicyandlegalframeworkandtheeffectivecoherenceofpolicies,legislationandinstitutionalarrangementsarekeytothesuccessofsustainableforestmanagement.Chinahasmanagedtodevelopanappropriatecombinationofastrongpolicyframeworkandmarketdrivenresponses.ItisthisrobustpolicyframeworkthathasenabledChinatotakefulladvantageoftheopportunitiesprovidedbyglobalization.Therobustnessofthepolicyandinstitutionalframeworkinallsectorsisareflectionofeffectivegovernanceandleadership.∞Translatingpoliciesandlegislationrequireseffectiveinstitutions.OvertimeChinahasinvestedheavilyinbuildingitsinstitutionalcapacityateverylevel–national,provincialandlocal.Thisincludesforestryadministration,whosemandatehasbeencontinuouslyimproved.Theprivatesectorhasbeensupportedtoplayapivotalroleinmanagingenterprisesinvolvedintheproductionandprocessingofwoodandnon-woodproductsandintheprovisionofecosystemservices.Therehavealsobeensubstantialeffortstoimproveforestryscienceandtechnologycapacityandtoenhancehumancapital.∞Havingwell-conceivedlong-termprogrammeswithadequateresourcesisanotherkeyrequirementforforesttransition.Asnotedabove,foresttransitioninChinaislargelyduetotheimplementationofthesixkeynationalforestryprogrammes,mostofwhicharelongterm.29ChinaNationalCommitteefortheImplementationoftheUNCCD(CCICCD).2006.ChinanationalreportontheimplementationoftheUnitedNationsConventiontoCombatDesertification.Delang,C.O.2016.China’skeyforestryprograms:economic,socialandecologicalrationales.InternationalJournalofGlobalEnvironmentalIssues,15(4):281–299.FAO.2013.ForestTenureReforminChina.ResultsandLessonsfromtheEU–SFA–FAOChinaForestTenureProject.Rome.(alsoavailableatwww.fao.org/3/mi285e/mi285e.pdf).FAO.2015.GlobalForestResourcesAssessment2015.Countryreport:China[online].Rome.www.fao.org/3/a-az186e.pdfFAO.2019.ForestFutures.Sustainablepathwaysforforests,landscapesandpeopleintheAsia-Pacificregion:Asia-PacificForestSectorOutlookStudyIII.Bangkok.352pp.(alsoavailableathttp://www.fao.org/3/ca4627en/ca4627en.pdf).FAO.2020a.GlobalForestResourcesAssessment2020.Mainreport.Rome.(alsoavailableathttps://doi.org/10.4060/ca9825en).FAO.2020b.GlobalForestResourcesAssessment2020.Report:China[online].Rome.www.fao.org/3/ca9980en/ca9980en.pdfFAO.2020c.FAOSTAT.In:ForestryProductionandTrade[online].Rome.[Cited17August2020].www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FOFAOandUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP).2020.TheStateoftheWorld’sForests2020.Forests,biodiversityandpeople.Rome.(alsoavailableathttps://doi.org/10.4060/ca8642en).Fei,B.H.2019.努力开创新时期竹产业发展新局面(CreateanewpageforthedevelopmentofthebambooindustryinChina)[online].ChinaBambooIndustryAssociation.www.cbiachina.com/index.php/Industrial/view/id/173.htmlHuang,Y.X.,Qi,Y.,Zhang,Y.&Yu,W.2019.ProgressofbamboorecombinationtechnologyinChina.AdvancesinPolymerTechnology.(alsoavailableatwww.hindawi.com/journals/apt/2019/2723191).InternationalTropicalTimberOrganization(ITTO).2018.TropicalTimberMarketReport.ITTOMarketInformationService.(22)17.(alsoavailableatwww.itto.int/files/user/mis/MIS_1-15_Sep2018.pdf).Ke,S.F.,Qiao,D.,Zhang,X.&Feng,Q.2019.ChangesofChina’sforestryandforestproductsindustryoverthepast40yearsandchallengeslyingahead.Vol.106(September).(alsoavailableathttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934119303703).Ke,S.F.,Ziao,D.,Yuan,W.&He,Y.2020.Broadeningthescopeofforesttransitioninquiry:WhatdoesChina’sexperiencesuggest?ForestPolicyandEconomics,118(September).Lebedys,A.&Li,Y.2014.Contributionoftheforestrysectortonationaleconomies,1990–2011.ForestFinanceWorkingPaperNo.FSFM/ACC/09.Rome,FAO.Li,S.D.2011.中国林业信息化战略研究报告.第二届全国林业信息化工作会议.国家林业和草原局,辽宁省沈阳市。(ReportonforestryinformatizationstrategyinChina)[online].NationalForestryandGrasslandAdministration.www.forestry.gov.cn/main/3148/20110510/478726.htmlLi,L.C.,Chhatre,A.&Liu,J.L.2019.MultipledriversandpathwaystoChina’sforesttransition.ForestPolicyandEconomics,106(101962).NationalForestryandGrasslandAdministration.2018.NationalForestCityDevelopmentPlan(2018–2025).Beijing.(alsoavailableatwww.forestry.gov.cn/zlszz/4249/20190807/091811732361912.html).ReferencesSOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE30NationalForestryandGrasslandAdministration.variousyears.ChinaForestryStatisticalYearbooks.Beijing.(alsoavailableathttp://chinayearbook.com).NationalScienceFoundation/NationalScienceBoard(NSF/NSB).2020.ScienceandEngineeringIndicators.ResearchandDevelopment:U.S.TrendsandInternationalComparisons[online].Alexandria,USA.[Cited20August2020].https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsb20203/cross-national-comparisons-of-r-d-performanceRen,Y.,KuuluvainenJ.,YangL.,Yao,S.,Xue,C.&Toppinen,A.2018.Propertyrights,villagepoliticalsystemandforestryinvestment:evidencefromChina’scollectiveforesttenurereform.Forests,9(9):541.Rodríguez,L.G.,Hogarth,N.J.,Zhou,W.,Xie,C.,Zhang,K.&Putzel,L.2016.China’sconversionofcroplandtoforestprogram:asystematicreviewoftheenvironmentalandsocioeconomiceffects.EnvironmentalEvidence,5(21).(alsoavailableathttps://environmentalevidencejournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13750-016-0071-x).StateForestryAdministration,China.2006.GlobalBambooResourcesAssessment.China:countryreport.GlobalForestResourcesAssessmentWorkingPaperNo.115.Rome,FAO.(alsoavailableatwww.fao.org/forestry/fra/2560/en/).UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs.2018.WorldUrbanizationProspects.In:PopulationDynamics[online].NewYork.[Cited18September2020].https://population.un.org/wup/UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs.2019.WorldPopulationProspects.In:PopulationDynamics[online].NewYork.[Cited16September2020].https://population.un.org/wpp/UnitedNationsDisasterAssessmentandCoordinationTeam(UNDAC)&UnitedNationsInter-AgencyMission.1998.Finalreporton1998floodsinthePeople’sRepublicofChina.OfficefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAffairs.(alsoavailableathttps://reliefweb.int/report/china/final-report-1998-floods-peoples-republic-china).WorldBank.2020a.GlobalEconomicProspects.Washington,DC.(alsoavailableatwww.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects).WorldBank.2020b.WorldDevelopmentIndicators.In:WorldBank[online].Washington,DC.[Cited21May2020].https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicatorsWorldBank.2020c.China’srecoverystrategyshouldfocusoninclusiveandsustainablegrowth:WorldBankreport[online].[Cited12September2020].www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/07/29/chinas-recovery-strategy-should-focus-on-inclusive-and-sustainable-growth-world-bank-reportXinhuanet.2019.我国新增28个国家森林城市增至194个.(ThenumberofChina’snationalforestcitiesincreasedby28to194)[online].www.xinhuanet.com/travel/2019-11/15/c_1125237681.htmXu,K.Q.,Chen,Z.,Zhao,Y.,Wang,Z.,Zhang,J.,Hayashi,S.,Murakami,S.&WatanabeM.2005.Simulatedsedimentfluxduring1998bigfloodoftheYangtze(Changjiang)River,China.JournalofHydrology,313(3–4):221–233.Yang,H.2017.China’sNaturalForestProtectionProgram:progressandimpact.ForestryChronicle,93(2):113–117.Zhang,D.2019.China’sforestexpansioninthelastthreeplusdecades:whyandhow?ForestPolicyandEconomics,98(C):75–81.Zomer,R.,Öborn,I.&Xu,J.2019.TreecoveronagriculturallandintheAsia-Pacificregion.WorkingPaper294.WorldAgroforestry(ICRAF)SoutheastAsiaRegionalProgram.Bogor,Indonesia.(alsoavailableathttp://dx.doi.org/10.5716/WP19005.PDF).31Annex:Keypolicy,legalandinstitutionalchangesinforestryinChinaPeriodYearImportantpolicy,legalandinstitutionalchanges1949–1970:Theprimarygoalofforestrywastoproducetimber.Agriculturewasthepriority,whichledtothediversionofforestsforagriculture,resultinginadeclineinforestcover.1950•ConstitutionofthePeople’sRepublicofChinaandtheenactmentoftheLandReformLaw,whichdefinedforestownershipasvestedintheGovernment.•TheMinistryofForestryandLandReclamationwasestablished.1951•TheMinistryofForestryandLandReclamationwaschangedtotheMinistryofForestry.1956•TheMinistryofForestrywasbifurcatedintotheMinistryofForestryandtheMinistryofForestIndustry.•EstablishmentofState-ownedforestandnaturereserves.1958•TheMinistryofForestrywasmergedwiththeMinistryofForestIndustry.1970•TheMinistryofAgricultureandtheMinistryofForestrymergedtobecometheMinistryofAgricultureandForestry.•ForestrybecameadepartmentwithintheMinistryofAgricultureandForestry.1970–1990:Effortstostrengthenforestadministrationcontinued,withagreaterfocusonforestconservation,butpressuresofeconomicdevelopmentledtocontinuedforestdecline.1975•MinistryremainedtheMinistryofAgricultureandForestry.1979•Increasedattentionpaidtoforestrydevelopment.Fine-tuningofinstitutions,withafocusonstructureandfunctions,andtheMinistry’snamewaschangedtotheMinistryofForestry.•LaunchingoftheShelterbeltsDevelopmentProgrammetoimproveecologicalconditionsandtoenhanceresiliencetonaturalhazards.1981•Economicreformsandopeningupoftheeconomy.•Severaldecisionsmaderelatingtoforestprotectionanddevelopment,includingtheNationwideVoluntaryTree-PlantingCampaign,whoseimplementationcommencedin1982.1982•ReorganizationoftheMinistryofForestrywithindependentstatusundertheStateCouncil.•IntroductionoftheOne-ChildPolicy.1985•PromulgationoftheForestLaw.1987•Centralizedallowableharvestingquotaforwoodandtherequirementofatransportpermit.1988–1992•Theforestadministrativesystemwasexpandedanditsmandatedefinedatalllevels.•Establishmentofatimbercuttingquotaandharvestlicencingsystemforindustrialforestryenterprises.•LaunchoftheFast-GrowingandHigh-YieldingTimberPlantationDevelopmentProgrammetoenhancedomesticwoodsupply.SOCIETY,ECONOMYANDFORESTSTHEUNFOLDINGFORESTTRANSITIONINCHINAANDLESSONSFORTHEFUTURE32PeriodYearImportantpolicy,legalandinstitutionalchanges1990–2011:Improvedinternationalcooperationandincreasedeffortstorestoreandconserveforestsandecosystemsandtocombatdeforestation.1994•PromulgationoftheRegulationsofthePeople’sRepublicChinaonNatureReserves.1995•ForestryActionPlanforChina’sAgenda21.1996•DeepeningofreformsandstrengtheningthedevelopmentofState-ownedforestlands.•WildPlantProtectionOrdinance.1998•Floodsandsandstorms.•Loggingbanimposedinnaturalforests.•TheMinistryofForestryrenamedStateForestAdministration.•LaunchoftheForestEcosystemCompensationProgramme.1999–2001•Implementationofkeynationalforestryprogrammes.•Classification-BasedForestManagementsystemputinplace.2003•Decisionsonacceleratingforestrydevelopment,withafocusonruralresourcemanagement.•Severalpoliciesinsupportofincreasingincomesoffarmers.2008•Reformofcollectiveforesttenure.2009•Redlinepolicyonarablelandtoensureaminimumareaoflandunderregularfarming.2010•StrategicEconomicForestDevelopmentPlanwithlocalfeatures(2011–2020)formulated.2012onwards:Improvementinforesthealthinsupportofthedevelopmentofecologicalcivilizationandthecontinuedincreaseinforestcover.2012•EstablishmentoftheenvironmentalpolicyEcologicalConservationRedline,acriticalcomponentofbuildinganecologicalcivilization.•Waterresourcepolicyestablished.•Technologicalinnovationtopromotethedevelopmentofmodernforestry.2014•AmendmentandadoptionoftheNationalEnvironmentProtectionLaw.2018•ManagementofgrasslandsintegratedwithforestrythroughtheformationoftheNationalForestryandGrasslandAdministration.FAORegionalOfficeforAsiaandthePacificfao-rap@fao.orgfao.org/asispacificFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsBangkok,ThailandCB3232EN/1/02.21