CarbonNeutralityintheUNECERegionTechnologyInterplayundertheCarbonNeutralityConceptUNITEDNATIONSECONOMICCOMMISSIONFOREUROPEUNITEDNATIONSECONOMICCOMMISSIONFOREUROPEUNITEDNATIONSGENEVA,2022©2022UnitedNationsCarbonNeutralityintheUNECERegion:TechnologyInterplayundertheCarbonNeutralityConcept4CarbonNeutralityintheUNECERegion8LIƼRHMRKWMRXIVTVIXEXMSRWERHGSRGPYWMSRWI\TVIWWIHLIVIMREVIXLSWISJXLIEYXLSVWERHHSRSXRIGIWWEVMP]VIJPIGXXLIZMI[WSJXLI9RMXIH2EXMSRWMXWSJJMGMEPWSV1IQFIV7XEXIW8LIHIWMKREXMSRIQTPS]IHERHXLITVIWIRXEXMSRSJQEXIVMEPSRER]QETMRXLMW[SVOHSRSXMQTP]XLII\TVIWWMSRSJER]STMRMSR[LEXWSIZIVSRXLITEVXSJXLI9RMXIH2EXMSRWGSRGIVRMRKXLIPIKEPWXEXYWSJER]GSYRXV]XIVVMXSV]GMX]SVEVIESVSJMXWEYXLSVMXMIWSVGSRGIVRMRKXLIHIPMQMXEXMSRSJMXWJVSRXMIVWSVFSYRHEVMIW1IRXMSRSJER]ƼVQPMGIRWIHTVSGIWWSVGSQQIVGMEPTVSHYGXWHSIWRSXMQTP]IRHSVWIQIRXF]XLI9RMXIH2EXMSRW8LMWTYFPMGEXMSRMWMWWYIHMR)RKPMWLERH6YWWMERACKNOWLEDGEMENTS8LMWHSGYQIRXWYTTSVXWMQTPIQIRXEXMSRSJXLITVSNIGXGEPPIHƈ)RLERGMRKYRHIVWXERHMRKSJXLIMQTPMGEXMSRWERHSTTSVXYRMXMIWSJQSZMRKXSGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]MRXLI92)')VIKMSREGVSWWXLITS[IVERHIRIVK]MRXIRWMZIMRHYWXVMIWF]Ɓ'EVFSR2IYXVEPMX]TVSNIGXƉ8LMWVITSVX[EWTVITEVIHF];EPOIV(EVOIYRHIVWXVEXIKMGKYMHERGIERHEHZMGISJ-ZE&VOMG4VSNIGX0IEH8LITVSNIGXXIEQXLEROWXS,SPKIV6SKRIV&ILREQ>EOIVMERHVERGIWGS0SZEXJVSQXLI-RXIVREXMSREP-RWXMXYXIJSV%TTPMIH7]WXIQW%REP]WMW--%7%JSVTVSZMHMRKHEXEEREP]WMWEW[IPPEWXLI92)')8EWOSVGISR'EVFSR2IYXVEPMX]JSVXLIZEVMSYWGSQQIRXWERHWYTTSVXXLVSYKLRYQIVSYWGSRWYPXEXMSRW8LITVSNIGXXIEQEPWS[MWLIWXSXLERO7LY]YI0MJSVTVSZMHMRKZMWYEPGSQQYRMGEXMSRERHHIWMKRWIVZMGIWJSVXLMWTYFPMGEXMSRDisclaimer8LITYFPMGEXMSRHSIWRSXRIGIWWEVMP]VIƽIGXXLITSWMXMSRSJXLIVIZMI[IVWERHTEVXRIVWPMWXIHEFSZI[LSLIPTIHXSHIZIPSTXLMWTYFPMGEXMSRTechnologyInterplayundertheCarbonNeutralityConceptABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYMSAcronymExpansionAdditionalInformationAFOLU%KVMGYPXYVISVIWXV]ERH3XLIV0ERH9WIBCM&MPPMSR'YFMG1IXIVWBECCS&MSQEWW)RIVK][MXL'EVFSR'ETXYVIERH7XSVEKICCUS'EVFSR'ETXYVI9WIERH7XSVEKICHȠ1IXLERICODž'EVFSRHMS\MHICRL'SQQIVGMEP6IEHMRIWW0IZIPCOP26XL92'PMQEXI'LERKI'SRJIVIRGISJXLI4EVXMIWDAC(MVIGX%MV'EVFSR'ETXYVIERH7XSVEKIDH(MWXVMGX,IEXEJ)\ENSYPI1018joulesUnitofEnergyEOR)RLERGIH3MP6IGSZIV]GDP+VSWW(SQIWXMG4VSHYGXHELE,MKL)ƾGMIRG]0S[)QMWWMSRWLCA0MJI']GPI%WWIWWQIRXMTCODžEq.1IXVMG8SRRIWSJ'EVFSR(MS\MHIIUYMZEPIRXMW1IKE[EXX106W(watt)=106J/s,unitofpowerNDCs2EXMSREP(IXIVQMRIH'SRXVMFYXMSRWSMRs7QEPP1SHYPEV6IEGXSVW2YGPIEVSRL7SGMEP6IEHMRIWW0IZIPWTRL8IGLRSPSK]6IEHMRIWW0IZIPUNECE9RMXIH2EXMSRW)GSRSQMG'SQQMWWMSRJSV)YVSTIUNDP9RMXIH2EXMSRW(IZIPSTQIRX4VSKVEQQIUNEP9RMXIH2EXMSRW)RZMVSRQIRX4VSKVEQQIUNFC9RMXIH2EXMSRWVEQI[SVO'PEWWMƼGEXMSRJSV6IWSYVGIWUNRMS9RMXIH2EXMSRW6IWSYVGI1EREKIQIRX7]WXIQCarbonNeutralityintheUNECERegionCONTENTSAcknowledgements4AbbreviationsandacronymsForeword............................................................................................................................................................................7Executivesummary83FNIGXMZIW......................................................................................................................................................................../I]XEOIE[E]WIntroduction(IƼRMRKGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]13,S[MWGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]EGLMIZEFPIERH[L]EVIMRRSZEXMZIXIGLRSPSKMIWRIIHIH#)RIVK]XIGLRSPSKMIWQSHIPPIHERHEREP]^IH181SHIPPMRKSJWGIREVMSWEXSSPJSVMRJSVQIHHIGMWMSRQEOMRK19Carbonneutralityataglance'3IQMWWMSRWF]WIGXSVW',ȠIQMWWMSRWF]WIGXSVW8IGLRSPSK]GSQQIVGMEPERHWSGMEPVIEHMRIWWPIZIPW-RZIWXQIRXWEVIRIIHIHEGVSWWEPPPS[ERH^IVSGEVFSRXIGLRSPSKMIW-RZIWXMRKMRGPIERIRIVK]MRJVEWXVYGXYVIEGVSWW92)')WYFVIKMSRWEnergysystemsofthefuture:UNECEregion31MREPIRIVK]WYTTP])PIGXVMGMX]KIRIVEXMSRQM\344VMQEV]IRIVK]WYTTP]Innovativesolutionsforacarbon-neutralenergysystem382YGPIEVTS[IV..............................................................................................................................................................39'EVFSRGETXYVIYWIERHWXSVEKI,]HVSKIR.......................................................................................................................................................................Trustedtechnologiesorinnovation?48-RHYWXV].....................................................................................................................................................................&YMPHMRKW......................................................................................................................................................................8VERWTSVX......................................................................................................................................................................References......................................................................................................................................................................Annex......................................................................................................................................................................7TechnologyInterplayundertheCarbonNeutralityConceptFOREWORD%PSRKWMHIQ]XIEQSJI\TI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ERHTVSGIWWMRKFossilelectricitygenerationFossilCCSHydrogenEnergyefficiency&intensityTotal44,783billion$CarbonNeutralityintheUNECERegionObjectives8LMWTYFPMGEXMSRFYMPHWSRXLIVIGSQQIRHEXMSRWJVSQXLI4EXL[E]WXS7YWXEMREFPI)RIVK]4VSNIGXERHXLI92)')'EVFSR2IYXVEPMX]4VSNIGX8LITYFPMGEXMSRFYMPHWYTSREWIVMIWSJXIGLRSPSK]FVMIJWXLEXHMVIGXP]WYTTSVXXLIMQTPIQIRXEXMSRSJXLI'EVFSR2IYXVEPMX]4VSNIGX8LIYRHIVP]MRKSFNIGXMZIWSJXLMWTYFPMGEXMSREVIXSInformpolicymakersaboutarangeofoptionsERHWSPYXMSRWXSEXXEMRGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]Supportcountries’effortstoreachcarbonneutralityERHEXXVEGXMRZIWXQIRXWMRXSGPIERMRJVEWXVYGXYVITVSNIGXWBuildcapacityineconomiesEGVSWWXLI92)')VIKMSRXSVIEGLGSQQSRKSEPWKeyTakeawaysProblem'PMQEXIQSHIPWMRHMGEXIXLEXGYVVIRXREXMSREPEGXMSRWERHMRXIVREXMSREPGPMQEXIXEVKIXWWIXMRXLI4EVMW%KVIIQIRXERHEX'34JEPPWLSVXSJHIPMZIVMRKSRGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]ERHPMQMXMRKKPSFEP[EVQMRKXSƁq'Missionpossible8LIVIEVIEGLMIZEFPITEXL[E]WJSVKSZIVRQIRXWXSHIWMKRERHEGLMIZIGEVFSRRIYXVEPIRIVK]W]WXIQWXLVSYKLXIGLRSPSK]MRXIVTPE]SJEPPPS[ERH^IVSGEVFSRXIGLRSPSKMIWTechnologyinterplay'EVFSRRIYXVEPIRIVK]W]WXIQWGSRWMWXSJ-XLIHMZIVWMƼGEXMSRSJTVMQEV]ERHƼREPIRIVK]WYTTP]--EREGGIPIVEXIHTLEWISYXSJYREFEXIHJSWWMPJYIPW---XLIIPIGXVMƼGEXMSRSJEPPWIGXSVWXLVSYKLVIRI[EFPIIRIVK]ERHRYGPIEVTS[IV-:XLI[MHIWTVIEHMRRSZEXMSRSJPS[ERH^IVSGEVFSRXIGLRSPSKMIWMRGP''97L]HVSKIRERHEHZERGIHSJRYGPIEVTS[IVIRIVK]WXSVEKIWSPYXMSRWImplicationsfortheUNECEregion8LI92)')VIKMSRQYWXMRGVIEWI-XIGLRSPSK]XVERWJIVERHHITPS]QIRX--MRWXMXYXMSREPGETEGMX]XSTPERERHHVMZIEQFMXMSYWXVERWJSVQEXMSRSJIRIVK]W]WXIQW---FY]MRERHEHSTXMSRJVSQEPPWXEOILSPHIVWXSFYMPHWIGYVIEJJSVHEFPIERHGEVFSRRIYXVEPIRIVK]W]WXIQWImmediateActions%GXMSRQYWXWXEVXRS[XSQE\MQM^IXLIYWISJEPPPS[ERH^IVSGEVFSRXIGLRSPSKMIWXSEGLMIZIGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]F]+SZIVRQIRXWRIIHXS-VEMWIE[EVIRIWWEFSYXXLIQIVMXWSJEPPPS[ERH^IVSGEVFSRXIGLRSPSKMIW--HIZIPSTTSPMG]JVEQI[SVOWMRWYTTSVXSJGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]---GVIEXIEPIZIPTPE]MRKƼIPHXSƼRERGIENYWXXVERWMXMSRXS[EVHGEVFSRRIYXVEPIRIVK]W]WXIQWEPMKRIHXSXLIRIIHWSJQIQFIV7XEXIWRoleofUNECE'SSVHMREXIHMRXIVREXMSREPGSSTIVEXMSR[MPPFIIWWIRXMEPXSEXXEMRGEVFSRRIYXVEPIRIVK]W]WXIQW92)')TVSZMHIWEQYGLRIIHIHMRGPYWMZIERHRIYXVEPTPEXJSVQJSVHIZIPSTMRKVYPIWWXERHEVHWERHRSVQWJSVW]WXIQMGPMJIWX]PIERHMRJVEWXVYGXYVEPGLERKIW7YTTSVXMZITSPMGMIWMRGIRXMZIWERHVIKYPEXSV]JVEQI[SVOWIRGSYVEKIVIKMSREPERHWYFVIKMSREPXIGLRMGEPGSSTIVEXMSREGVSWWTS[IVMRHYWXV]FYMPHMRKWERHXVERWTSVXWIGXSVWJSVTVSNIGXWSJGSQQSRMRXIVIWXERHTYFPMGTVMZEXITEVXRIVWLMTW11TechnologyInterplayundertheCarbonNeutralityConceptThefuturecarbonneutralenergysystem4SPMG]QEOIVWLEZIGPIEVTEXL[E]WXSEXXEMRGEVFSRRIYXVEPIRIVK]W]WXIQWF]GSQFMRMRKI\MWXMRKERHRI[XIGLRSPSKMIW[MXLMRMRXIKVEXIHIRIVK]W]WXIQW%PPPS[ERH^IVSGEVFSRXIGLRSPSKMIW[MPPTPE]EVSPIMRMRXIVGSRRIGXIHW]WXIQW[LIVIRSIRIVK]W]WXIQ[MPPI\MWXMRMWSPEXMSR-RRSZEXMSRERHHMKMXEPM^EXMSRIREFPIIRIVK]W]WXIQWXLEXEVIIƾGMIRXVIWMPMIRXERHGETEFPISJHIPMZIVMRKERIX^IVSVIKMSRFIGURE1CarbonNeutralEnergySystemoftheFutureCarbonNeutralityintheUNECERegionINTRODUCTION%WXLIVIGIRX-RXIVKSZIVRQIRXEP4ERIPSR'PMQEXI'LERKI-4''VITSVXGSRƼVQWMXMWYRIUYMZSGEPXLEXLYQERMRƽYIRGILEW[EVQIHXLIEXQSWTLIVISGIERERHPERH-XMWRS[SVRIZIVMJ[I[ERXXSPMQMXKPSFEP[EVQMRKXSq'MX[MPPFIMQTSWWMFPI[MXLSYXMQQIHMEXIERHHIITIQMWWMSRWVIHYGXMSRWEGVSWWEPPWIGXSVW'PMQEXIGLERKIPIEHWXSI\XVIQI[IEXLIVERHWYFWIUYIRXWSGMEPERHIGSRSQMGHMWVYTXMSRMRIZIV]VIKMSRSJXLI[SVPH%XXLIWEQIXMQIWYWXEMREFPIIRIVK]W]WXIQWEVIGVMXMGEPJSVEWWYVMRKUYEPMX]SJPMJIERHMXYRHIVTMRWXLIEXXEMRQIRXSJXLI%KIRHEJSV7YWXEMREFPI(IZIPSTQIRX%KIRHE'PMQEXIQSHIPWMRHMGEXIXLEXXLIGYVVIRXGEVFSRIQMWWMSRVIHYGXMSRTSPMGMIWERH2EXMSREP(IXIVQMRIH'SRXVMFYXMSRW2('WJEPPWLSVXSJ[LEXMWVIUYMVIHXSQIIXXLIKSEPSJPMQMXMRKKPSFEP[EVQMRKXSƁS'8LIVIMWEHMWGSRRIGXFIX[IIRGSYRXVMIWƅEKVIIHIRIVK]ERHGPMQEXIXEVKIXWTIVXLI4EVMW%KVIIQIRXERHXLIEGXYEPTVSKVIWWQEHI;IEVIVYRRMRKSYXSJXMQIXSPMQMXXLIMQTEGXWSJGPMQEXIGLERKI-REGXMSRMWETSPMG]GLSMGIXLEXGSYPHPIEHXSQSVIWMKRMƼGERXTSXIRXMEPP]MRWYVQSYRXEFPIGLEPPIRKIWMRXLIJYXYVI'SQTPI\KPSFEPIRIVK]W]WXIQWEVIEXXLILIEVXSJEPPIGSRSQMIW3RXLIWYTTP]WMHIREXMSREPIRIVK]W]WXIQWEVIRSXMWSPEXIHFYXEVITEVXSJSTXMQM^IHMRXIVGSRRIGXIHMRXVEERHMRXIVVIKMSREPW]WXIQW8LIWIW]WXIQWEVIGLEVEGXIVM^IHF]REXYVEPVIWSYVGIWERHXIGLRSPSKMIWXLEXGERMQTEGXWYWXEMREFPIKVS[XL%GLERKMRKXIGLRSPSK]PERHWGETIHVMZIRF]PS[GSWXXIGLRSPSKMIWEW[IPPEWIRZMVSRQIRXEPERHKISTSPMXMGEPGSRGIVRWXLEXWMKRMƼ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ƾGMIRG]IPIGXVMƼGEXMSRSJXLIIRIVK]W]WXIQERHHMKMXEPM^EXMSR-RRSZEXMZIQIEWYVIWMRMRHYWXV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energysystems.1SHIPPMRKWLS[WJSWWMPJYIPI\XVEGXMSRMRZIWXQIRXHMZIVXIHXSSXLIVWIGXSVWSJXLIIRIVK]W]WXIQ-RZIWXQIRXMRVIRI[EFPIIRIVK]MWUYEHVYTPIHERHMRZIWXQIRXWMRIRIVK]IƾGMIRG]EVIKVS[MRKXSFIGSQIEUYEVXIVSJXSXEPIRIVK]MRZIWXQIRXW7MKRMƼGERXMRZIWXQIRXMRGVIEWIWEVIEPWSWIIRMRRYGPIEVTS[IV''97ERHL]HVSKIRFIGURE13TotalInvestmentNeedsforUNECEEnergySystemsReferenceandCarbonNeutralityScenariosReferenceScenarioTotalInvestmentNeeds2020CarbonNeutralityScenarioTotalInvestmentNeeds2050RenewablesFossilfuelTransmission,DistributionandStorageNuclearFossilelectricitygenerationHydrogenI\XVEGXMSRXVERWQMWWMSRERHTVSGIWWMRKMRGPFMSQEWW''7FossilCCSEnergyefficiency&intensityTotal28,193billion$NuclearRenewables19MRGPFMSQEWW''7Transmission,DistributionandStorageFossilfuel19I\XVEGXMSRXVERWQMWWMSRERHTVSGIWWMRKFossilelectricitygenerationFossilCCSHydrogenEnergyefficiency&intensityTotal44,783billion$CarbonNeutralityintheUNECERegionAllregionsmustre-directresourcesnowbeforeitistoolate.7MKRMƼGERXMRZIWXQIRXMRIRIVK]IƾGMIRG]ERHXVERWQMWWMSRHMWXVMFYXMSRERHWXSVEKIFIRIƼXWEPPWXEOILSPHIVW'SRWYQIVWGERFIRIƼXJVSQPS[IVIRIVK]GSWXW[MXLQSVIIRIVK]IƾGMIRXLSQIW)RIVK]TVSZMHIVWERHMRHYWXVMIWGEREPWSVIHYGIIRIVK]TVSHYGXMSRGSWXW[MXLQSHIVRM^IHIRIVK]XVERWQMWWMSRERHWXSVEKI4SPMG]QEOIVWERHXLIƼRERGMEP[SVPHQYWXHIZIPSTMRZIWXQIRXJVEQI[SVOWJSVEPPPS[GEVFSRIRIVK]TVSNIGXW+SZIVRQIRXWWLSYPHWYTTSVXHIZIPSTQIRXTVSNIGXW[MXLERETTVSTVMEXIVMWOWLEVMRKWXVYGXYVIERHJEGMPMXEXIEGGIWWXSPS[GSWXƼRERGMRKXSEGGIPIVEXIXLIHITPS]QIRXSJMRRSZEXMZIXIGLRSPSKMIW'SRWMWXIRXTSPMGMIWERHQEVOIXJVEQI[SVOWEVIRIIHIHXSTVSZMHIJEZSVEFPIMRZIWXQIRXWMKREPWERHEXXVEGXTVMZEXIƼRERGIJSVLMKLGETMXEPGSWXTVSNIGXW4SPMG]QEOIVWRIIHXSFIIQTS[IVIHERHIRGSYVEKIHXSQEOIWXVSRKMRZIWXQIRXHIGMWMSRWHowmuchwillthetransitiontonet-zerocost?8LIGSWXXSXVERWMXMSRXSGEVFSRRIYXVEPIRIVK]W]WXIQWEVIQYGLPS[IVXLERTIVGIMZIH8LIGSWXSJMREGXMSRMWJEVKVIEXIVEWZYPRIVEFPIIRIVK]W]WXIQWEVIWYWGITXMFPIXSXLIIRZMVSRQIRXEPIGSRSQMGERHWSGMEPGSRWIUYIRGIWSJGPMQEXIGLERKIEnergyinvestmentas%ofGDP(GrossDomesticProduct)WPMKLXP]HIGPMRIWJVSQMRXSF]MREVIJIVIRGIWGIREVMS8SEXXEMRGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]IRIVK]MRZIWXQIRXWLEVIQYWXMRGVIEWIXSJVSQ8LMWMWEQSHIVEXIMRGVIEWIFYX[MPPMRGVIEWIMJTVSGVEWXMREXMSRTIVWMWXW%PEGOSJEGXMSRMWPMOIP]XSQEOIGPMQEXIGSQTEXMFMPMX]QSVII\TIRWMZIERHFYVHIRWSQIXSJYXYVIKIRIVEXMSRW8LIVIJSVIVEMWMRKE[EVIRIWWEFSYXMRZIWXQIRXQIVMXWMWIWWIRXMEPXSGSYRXIVWSGMSTSPMXMGEPEGGITXERGIGSRGIVRW)RIVK]I\TIRHMXYVIJSVƼREPIRIVK]EWEWLEVISJ+(4GERWLS[XLIQEVKMREPZEPYIWEPSRKIEGLWXITSJXLIIRIVK]HIPMZIV]GLEMRFIGEYWIMXMRGPYHIWSTIVEXMRKQEMRXIRERGIERHJYIPGSWXW8LIVIJIVIRGIWGIREVMSWIIWEQSHIVEXIMRGVIEWIJVSQMRXSF]-RXLIGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]WGIREVMSIRIVK]ERHIRIVK]WIVZMGIWMRZIWXQIRXWMRGVIEWIXSSJ+(4InvestingincleanenergyinfrastructureacrossUNECEsubregionsFIGURE14TotalInvestmentNeedsforUNECEEnergySystemsReferenceandCarbonNeutralityScenariosbySubregions31TechnologyInterplayundertheCarbonNeutralityConceptENERGYSYSTEMSOFTHEFUTURE:UNECEREGIONArapidtransitionfromfossilfuelstolow-andzero-carbontechnologiesisvitaltoachievingnet-zeroemissions.%GGSVHMRKXSEREP]WMWXVEHMXMSREPJSWWMPJYIPYWI[MPPHIGVIEWIEWXIGLRSPSKMIWWYGLEWWSPEVERH[MRHRYGPIEVTS[IVL]HVSKIRERH''97QEOITVSKVIWW8LITVEGXMGEPHIPMZIV]SJER]VETMHTEXL[E]XSGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX][MPPFIWYFNIGXXSMRJVEWXVYGXYVIGETEGMX]ERHEGGIWWXSREXYVEPVIWSYVGIWEnergysystemresiliencecanbestrengthenedinseveralwaysXLVSYKLMQTVSZIQIRXWMRIRIVK]IJJMGMIRG]HMZIVWMƼGEXMSRSJIRIVK]WYTTP]ERHMRXIVGSRRIGXIHMRJVEWXVYGXYVISJEPPPS[ERH^IVSGEVFSRXIGLRSPSKMIW-REHHMXMSRXIGLRSPSK]HIZIPSTQIRXERHMRZIWXQIRXWXVEXIKMIWQYWXJSVQTEVXSJXLIFVSEHIVGPMQEXITSPMGMIWLow-andzero-carbonsolutionsmustbeprioritizedandbuiltatscaletoensurecarbonneutralitytargetsaremet.-J[IGSRXMRYI[MXLFYWMRIWWEWYWYEPXLI[SVPHMWSRETEXLXSKPSFEPEZIVEKIXIQTIVEXYVIWXLEXEVIS'EFSZITVIMRHYWXVMEPPIZIPW8LIWIPIZIPWEVIGSRWMHIVIHGEXEWXVSTLMGERHI\MWXIRXMEPXLVIEXWXSLYQERMX]XLEXQYWXFIEHHVIWWIHYVKIRXP]FIGURE15TotalPrimaryEnergySupplyfor2050[EJ]ReferenceScenariovsCarbonNeutralityScenarioReferenceScenarioPrimaryEnergySupply2050CarbonNeutralityScenarioPrimaryEnergySupply2050FIGURE16FinalEnergySupplyfor2050[EJ]ReferenceScenariovsCarbonNeutralityScenarioReferenceScenarioFinalEnergySupply2050CarbonNeutralityScenarioFinalEnergySupply2050Total194EJElectricityGasSolarHydrogenHeatBiomassLiquidsCoalTotal128EJLiquidsElectricityGasSolarHydrogenHeatBiomassCoalCarbonNeutralityintheUNECERegionFinalenergysupplyFIGURE17FinalEnergySupply[EJ]ReferenceScenarioFIGURE18FinalEnergySupply[EJ]CarbonNeutralityScenario[EJ][EJ]ReferenceScenarioFinalEnergySupply2050CarbonNeutralityScenarioFinalEnergySupply2050FIGURE19FinalEnergySupply[EJ]:ComparisonbetweenCarbonNeutralityandReferenceScenarios33TechnologyInterplayundertheCarbonNeutralityConcept8LIƼREPIRIVK]WYTTP]MRHMGEXIWIRIVK]GEVVMIVWYWIHXSHIPMZIVXSIRHYWIVW-RXLIGSRXI\XSJXLMWTVSNIGXERHQSHIPPMRKI\IVGMWIXLMWMRGPYHIWElectricityMWYWIHJSVPMKLXMRKETTPMERGIWERHSXLIVIPIGXVMGIUYMTQIRX-XMWEPWSYWIHMRIPIGXVMGLIEXMRKLIEXTYQTWERHGSSPMRKMRFYMPHMRKW-XJEGMPMXEXIWXLIIPIGXVMƼGEXMSRSJMRHYWXVMEPTVSGIWWIWWYGLEWIPIGXVMGJYVREGIWERHIPIGXVMGXVERWTSVXEXMSRSolarthermalMWYWIHJSVLIEXMRKTYVTSWIWMRFYMPHMRKWERHMRHYWXV]Geothermal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MPGETEGMX]TLEWIHSYX+;SJPS[GEVFSRGETEGMX]MWI\TIGXIHXSFIFYMPXSJ[LMGLMWMRXIVQMXXIRXVIRI[EFPIIRIVK](ITPS]QIRXSJHMWXVMFYXIHVIRI[EFPIIRIVK]KIRIVEXMSRTVSNIGXW[SYPHVIHYGIPSWWIWMRXLIKVMHERHQMRMQM^IIPIGXVMGMX]ƽS[W2I[[E]WXSGSQTIRWEXIJSVLMKLP]ZEVMEFPIIRIVK]WSYVGIW[MPPFIRIIHIH2I[JSVQWSJIRIVK]WXSVEKIIPIGXVMGQIGLERMGEPXLIVQEPGLIQMGEPWLSYPHFIHIZIPSTIHXSHIGVIEWIXLIRIIHJSVJSWWMPIRIVK]FEGOYTW8LIGSRGITXSJuFEWIPSEHƅIRIVK][MPPFIVITPEGIHF]ƄYRMRXIVVYTXEFPIƅIRIVK]ƁXLMWMQTPMIWXLEXXLIWYTTPMIWGERRSXFIEPPS[IHXSFIXYVRIHSJJJSVGVMXMGEPYWIW(SGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]WGIREVMSWVIƽIGXƄIJJSVXWXS[EVHWTLEWIHS[RSJGSEPƅ#Coaluseisdrasticallyreducedinallthemodelledcarbonneutralityscenarios.8LIQSHIPPMRKPSSOWEXXIGLRSPSKMIWƅGSWXWERHPIEHXMQIWXSSTXMQM^ILS[GEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]MWEGLMIZIH8LIYWISJGSEP[MXL''97QE][IPPFIƄIGSRSQMGEPP]ƅSTXMQEPMRWSQIGSYRXVMIWKMZIREHHMXMSREPQSHIPPMRKGSRHMXMSRWWYGLEWIRIVK]WIGYVMX]EZEMPEFMPMX]SJ''97WMXIWERHTSPMXMGEPTVIJIVIRGIWSVI\EQTPIGSEPMWYWIHXSKIXLIV[MXL''97XSKIRIVEXIL]HVSKIRMRQSHIPGEWIW[LIVIREXYVEPKEWSVVIRI[EFPIIRIVK]MWRSXTVEGXMGEPMRWSQIQSHIPPIHWGIREVMSW-RWYGLGEWIWXLIXEVKIXMWXSEGLMIZIGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]YWMRKHMJJIVIRXXIGLRSPSKMIW'3DžERH',ȠIQMWWMSRWEVIIMXLIVGETXYVIHSVSJJWIXXSQIIXXLIXEVKIXJSVIQMWWMSRW36CarbonNeutralityintheUNECERegionFIGURE25PrimaryEnergyMix[EJ]:ComparisonbetweenCarbonNeutralityandReferenceScenarioscarbonneutralitywillrequireunprecedentedreductionsinenergyintensitiesof2.5%annuallybetween2020and2050.Improvementsinenergyintensitieswillbeduetoeconomicrestructuringandtheextensivereallocationofresourcesintheenergysystem.Thephase-outoffossilfuelswillresultinafallinprimaryenergyEGLMIZIHXLVSYKLERMRXIKVEXIHERHMRXIPPMKIRXHIWMKRXLEXQIIXWHIQERHZMEGPIERIPIGXVMƼGEXMSRWQEVXHMKMXEPXIGLRSPSK]IƾGMIRXFYMPHMRKWERHMRJVEWXVYGXYVIERHEGMVGYPEVIGSRSQ]ETTVSEGLXS[EXIV[EWXIERHQEXIVMEPW8LMWMWIQFIHHIHMRE[LSPIW]WXIQETTVSEGLXS[EVHWWXVYGXYVEPGLERKIMRXIGLRSPSK]PMJIWX]PIERHIGSRSQ]PrimaryenergysupplyFIGURE23PrimaryEnergyMix[EJ]ReferenceScenarioFIGURE24PrimaryEnergyMix[EJ]CarbonNeutralityScenarioReferenceScenarioPrimaryEnergyMix2020CarbonNeutralityScenarioPrimaryEnergyMix205037TechnologyInterplayundertheCarbonNeutralityConceptPrimaryenergyoffersefficiencyimprovements.)RIVK]IJJMGMIRG]ERHMRXIRWMX]MQTVSZIQIRXWSGGYVIRXMVIP]EPSRKXLIWIGLEMRW'SRZIVWMSRJVSQTVMQEV]IRIVK]MRXSIPIGXVMGMX]KIRIVEXMSRVIƼRMRKERHW]RJYIPTVSHYGXMSRGERFIGSQIQSVIIƾGMIRX-REHHMXMSRXLIXVERWQMWWMSRERHHMWXVMFYXMSRSJIRIVK]ERHIRHYWIWIGXSVWMRGPYHMRKFYMPHMRKWXVERWTSVXERHMRHYWXV]EVIEPWSTVMRGMTEPEGXSVWMREXXEMRMRKGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]Coal,oil,andnaturalgasinthetotalenergysupplywillneedtodecreasesignificantly.8SEGLMIZIGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]F]VIRI[EFPIIRIVK]WYTTP][MPPKVS[JEWXIWXJSPPS[IHF]RYGPIEVTS[IV%PPXIGLRSPSK]WSPYXMSRWPIEHMRKXSGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX]RIIHXSFIWYTTSVXIHSVI\EQTPI[MXLƽI\MFPITSPMG]MRGIRXMZIWXSWGEPIYTEGGIWWXSSRWLSVIERHSJJWLSVIWMXIWJSV[MRHERHWSPEVTIVQMXWJSVRI[RYGPIEVTPERXWERHTIVQMXWTPYWJYRHMRKJSVKISPSKMGEP''978LIWYGGIWWSJTSPMGMIWXSTVSQSXIVIRI[EFPIIRIVK]RIIHWXSFIGSRWMHIVIHXSOMGOWXEVXXLIQSZIXSEPXIVREXMZIIRIVK]ZILMGPIW''97WQEPPRYGPIEVTS[IVQSHYPEVVIEGXSVWERHRI[IRIVK]WXSVEKIW]WXIQWEnergysystemswillbecomereliantonaccesstocriticalrawmaterials.:EWXUYERXMXMIWSJVE[QEXIVMEPWMRGPYHMRKGVMXMGEPVE[QEXIVMEPWEVIVIUYMVIHJSVXLIGYVVIRXERHJYXYVIIRIVK]W]WXIQW92)')QIQFIV7XEXIWWLSYPHETTP]XLITVMRGMTPIWERHVIUYMVIQIRXWSJXLI9RMXIH2EXMSRW6IWSYVGI1EREKIQIRX7]WXIQ92617[LMGLWXVIWWIWVIWSYVGIWEWEWIVZMGIZEPYIEHHMXMSRGMVGYPEVMX]ERHMRRSZEXMSR38CarbonNeutralityintheUNECERegionCARBON-NEUTRALENERGYSYSTEMINNOVATIVESOLUTIONSFORAInnovationwillbeatthecoreofacarbon-neutralenergysystems.8LI[SVPHWXEVXIHGSRWMHIVMRKXLIXVERWJSVQEXMSRSJIRIVK]W]WXIQWSZIVLEPJEGIRXYV]EKS8LIRSRIRIVK]WIGXSVWWXEVXIHXLMWXVERWJSVQEXMSRQYGLQSVIVIGIRXP]8]TMGEPP]XIGLRSPSK]G]GPIWWTERSZIV]IEVW4SPMG]QEOIVWWLSYPHI\TIGXERHFISTIRXSEWIVMIWSJMRRSZEXMSRW[MXLMRXLIRI\XHIGEHIWDeploymentofalllow-andzero-carbontechnologieswilladvancecarbonneutrality.8SQEOIXLMWEVIEPMX]XLI92)')VIKMSRQYWXWGEPIYTXIGLRSPSK]XVERWJIVERHHITPS]QIRXI\TERHMRWXMXYXMSREPGETEGMX]ERHFYMPHWYTTSVXJSVEWIGYVIEJJSVHEFPIERHGEVFSRRIYXVEPIRIVK]W]WXIQW8LIRI\XWIGXMSRSJXLMWVITSVXTVSZMHIWELMKLPIZIPSZIVZMI[SJXLITVSTIVXMIWERHXLITSXIRXMEPSJXLVIIMRRSZEXMZIPS[ERH^IVSGEVFSRXIGLRSPSKMIWERI[KIRIVEXMSRSJRYGPIEVTS[IV''97ERHL]HVSKIRXSHIPMZIVSRGEVFSRRIYXVEPMX].39TechnologyInterplayundertheCarbonNeutralityConceptCarbonNeutralityintheUNECERegionAdvancednuclearpowerNuclearpowerisanessentiallow-carbonelectricityandheatsourcecontributingtocarbonneutrality.%PSRK[MXLGYVVIRXTVSZIRGSQQIVGMEPM^IHVIEGXSVHIWMKRWQER]RI[RYGPIEVVIEGXSVXIGLRSPSKMIWEVIFIMRKHIZIPSTIH[LMGLQE]STIRRI[QEVOIXWWYGLEWFIXXIVPSEHQEREKIQIRXLMKLXIQTIVEXYVILIEXJSVMRHYWXVMEPTVSGIWWIWGSQFMRIHLIEXERHTS[IVTVSHYGXMSRERHIPIGXVSP]WMWJSVL]HVSKIRTVSHYGXMSR'SYRXVMIWXLEXHIGMHIXSHITPS]RYGPIEVTS[IVGERTPE]ERIWWIRXMEPVSPIMRHIGEVFSRM^MRKXLI92)')IRIVK]W]WXIQWThetechnologybriefonnuclearpowerVITVIWIRXWXLITSXIRXMEPVSPISJRYGPIEVTS[IVMREGLMIZMRKXLIRIX^IVSIQMWWMSRXEVKIXERHLEWQSXMZEXIHWSQIREXMSRWXSPSSOJSVEPPXLITSXIRXMEPPS[GEVFSRIRIVK]WIVZMGIWTVSZMHIHF]RYGPIEVTS[IV7SQIGSYRXVMIWQE]GLSSWIXSTYVWYIRYGPIEVTS[IV[MXLEZMI[XLEXMXGERTPE]ERMQTSVXERXVSP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