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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Climate and Development: An Agenda for Action

1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433

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This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank Group with external contributions. “The World Bank Group”

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the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral

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Cover design: Brad Amburn

Climate and Development: An Agenda for Action

Achieving Climate and

Development Goals Together

Foreword by David Malpass

Developing countries face a unique challenge of having to achieve

their economic development goals in the context of a changing

climate.

Policymakers face tough questions. How to translate short- and long-

term climate impacts into decisions today? What policy reforms and

investments should be prioritized? What are the trade-offs between

immediate beneﬁts and costlier delays?

The answers to these questions will impact every sector of their

economies and societies. Moreover, there is no single solution: the

energy transition in China looks very different from in Chad, and the

development priorities of Pakistan vary signiﬁcantly from those of Türkiye.

All countries can beneﬁt from a systematic approach that combines the best available data,

models, and tools to provide immediate and actionable recommendations that integrate climate

and development goals.

That is what our transformative new diagnostic —the Country Climate and Development Reports—

sets out to do.

The reports build on the World Bank Group’s long and ongoing country engagement as the world’s

leading development institution and the leading provider of climate ﬁnance to the developing world.

Each report is rooted in its unique country context: from the country’s climate commitments and

development priorities to its income level and its sectoral transitions. The reports take a people-

centric approach, from people living in ﬂood-prone areas to workers in the coal industry, to protect

the poorest and most vulnerable and contribute to a just transition. They capture the essential

role of the private sector in increasing resilience and reducing emissions. They also examine the

“All countries can beneﬁt from a systematic approach

that combines the best available data, models, and tools

to provide immediate and actionable recommendations

that integrate climate and development goals. That is

what our transformative new diagnostic —the Country

Climate and Development Reports—sets out to do.”

/17

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EXECUTIVESUMMARY2ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction©2022TheWorldBankGroup1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankGroupwithexternalcontributions.“TheWorldBankGroup”referstothelegallyseparateorganizationsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment(IBRD),theInternationalDevelopmentAssociation(IDA),theInternationalFinanceCorporation(IFC),andtheMultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgency(MIGA).TheWorldBankGroupdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,reliabilityorcompletenessofthecontentincludedinthiswork,ortheconclusionsorjudgmentsdescribedherein,andacceptsnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyomissionsorerrors(including,withoutlimitation,typographicalerrorsandtechnicalerrors)inthecontentwhatsoeverorforreliancethereon.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartoftheWorldBankGroupconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisvolumedonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheorganizationsoftheWorldBankGroup,theirrespectiveBoardsofExecutiveDirectors,andthegovernmentstheyrepresent.Thecontentsofthisworkareintendedforgeneralinformationalpurposesonlyandarenotintendedtoconstitutelegal,securities,orinvestmentadvice,anopinionregardingtheappropriatenessofanyinvestment,orasolicitationofanytype.SomeoftheorganizationsoftheWorldBankGrouportheiraffiliatesmayhaveaninvestmentin,provideotheradviceorservicesto,orotherwisehaveafinancialinterestin,certainofthecompaniesandpartiesnamedherein.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofanyoftheorganizationsofTheWorldBankGroup,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.RightsandPermissionsThematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankGroupencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgivenandallfurtherpermissionsthatmayberequiredforsuchuse(asnotedherein)areacquired.TheWorldBankGroupdoesnotwarrantthatthecontentcontainedinthisworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthirdparties,andacceptsnoresponsibilityorliabilityinthisregard.AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org.Coverdesign:BradAmburn3ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionAchievingClimateandDevelopmentGoalsTogetherForewordbyDavidMalpassDevelopingcountriesfaceauniquechallengeofhavingtoachievetheireconomicdevelopmentgoalsinthecontextofachangingclimate.Policymakersfacetoughquestions.Howtotranslateshort-andlong-termclimateimpactsintodecisionstoday?Whatpolicyreformsandinvestmentsshouldbeprioritized?Whatarethetrade-offsbetweenimmediatebenefitsandcostlierdelays?Theanswerstothesequestionswillimpacteverysectoroftheireconomiesandsocieties.Moreover,thereisnosinglesolution:theenergytransitioninChinalooksverydifferentfrominChad,andthedevelopmentprioritiesofPakistanvarysignificantlyfromthoseofTürkiye.Allcountriescanbenefitfromasystematicapproachthatcombinesthebestavailabledata,models,andtoolstoprovideimmediateandactionablerecommendationsthatintegrateclimateanddevelopmentgoals.Thatiswhatourtransformativenewdiagnostic—theCountryClimateandDevelopmentReports—setsouttodo.ThereportsbuildontheWorldBankGroup’slongandongoingcountryengagementastheworld’sleadingdevelopmentinstitutionandtheleadingproviderofclimatefinancetothedevelopingworld.Eachreportisrootedinitsuniquecountrycontext:fromthecountry’sclimatecommitmentsanddevelopmentprioritiestoitsincomelevelanditssectoraltransitions.Thereportstakeapeople-centricapproach,frompeoplelivinginflood-proneareastoworkersinthecoalindustry,toprotectthepoorestandmostvulnerableandcontributetoajusttransition.Theycapturetheessentialroleoftheprivatesectorinincreasingresilienceandreducingemissions.Theyalsoexaminethe“Allcountriescanbenefitfromasystematicapproachthatcombinesthebestavailabledata,models,andtoolstoprovideimmediateandactionablerecommendationsthatintegrateclimateanddevelopmentgoals.Thatiswhatourtransformativenewdiagnostic—theCountryClimateandDevelopmentReports—setsouttodo.”4ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActiontechnologiesandinnovationsneededforlowercarbonintensityproductionofelectricity,steel,cement,andmanufacturing,andhowtheworldwillbuildgreenandefficientsupplychainsforsustainabledevelopment.Theresultisthateachreportcontainsawealthofinformationonthepathwaysandinvestmentsthatcanhelpeachcountrytoshapealow-carbon,resilientdevelopmentfuture.Thesereportsdonotprovidealltheanswers,buttheyoffernewanalysisandlayoutthechallengesandopportunitiesofclimateanddevelopmentinanintegratedwaythatenablespolicymakerstobetterfindtheanswerstheyneed.Thefirstbatchofreportsspans24countries:Argentina,Bangladesh,BurkinaFaso,Cameroon,Chad,China,ArabRepublicofEgypt,Ghana,Iraq,Jordan,Kazakhstan,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Morocco,Nepal,Niger,Pakistan,Peru,Philippines,Rwanda,SouthAfrica,Türkiye,andVietnam.EachreportisconductedjointlybytheWorldBankanditsprivatesectorarms,theInternationalFinanceCorporationandtheMultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgency,andinclosecoordinationwiththeInternationalMonetaryFund.Iwanttothankallthosewhohavetakenpartinthisgroundbreakingexercisefortheirinsights,rigor,collaborativespirit,andhardwork.Thisanalysis,ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction,drawsfromtherichnessoftheindividualcountryreportsandsharessomeearlyinsightswehavegleanedfromthefirstbatch.Theseearlyinsightsarestriking.InCCDRcountries,investinganaverageof1.4%ofGDPinadaptationandmitigationcouldincreasetheirresilienceandreducetheiremissionsbyasmuchas70%by2050.ThetransitioncouldseepositiveimpactsonGDPandemployment,butthesemustbebalancedagainstlossesinfossilfuel-intensivesectorswhichwillimpactsomepopulationsandcommunities.Thegainsaretheretobereapedbuttheyarenotautomatic:theydependoncarefullydesignedpoliciesaswellasincreasedfinancialsupportfromrichereconomies.Especiallyinlower-incomecountries,whereinvestmentneedsforclimateactionoftenexceed5percentofGDP,increasedvolumesofconcessionalfinance—includingthroughgrants—arecriticaltoasuccessfulandjusttransition.ThefirstbatchofCCDRsshowusthattacklingclimateanddevelopmentisachievable.Together,wecanforgeapathtowardalow-carbonresilientfuture.5ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionExecutiveSummaryClimatechange—causedbygreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsfromhumanactivities—posesamajorthreattocountries’abilitytoprotectpastdevelopmentgainsandachievefutureimprovementsinlivingstandardsforall.TacklingclimatechangeanddevelopmentchallengestogetheristhereforeattheheartoftheWorldBankGroup’sClimateChangeActionPlan2021–251andtheWorldBank’sGreen,Resilient,andInclusiveDevelopment(GRID)approach.2Tosupportthealignmentofdevelopmentandclimateobjectivesatthecountrylevel,theWorldBankGrouphaslaunchedanewcorediagnostictool:theCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(CCDR).Thesecountryreportscombinethebestavailabledata,models,andtoolstoprovideimmediateandactionablerecommendationsfordecisionmakerstoday.Integratingclimatechangeanddevelopmentconsiderations,theCCDRsaimtohelpgovernments,theprivatesector,citizens,anddevelopmentpartnersprioritizethemostimpactfulactionsthatcanboostresilienceandadaptationandcontributetoglobalpublicgoodsbyreducingGHGemissions,whiledeliveringonbroaderdevelopmentobjectives.Thefirstsetof20CCDRscovers24countries(figureS.1).3FIGURES.1:CCDRcountriescoveredinthissynthesispaperandthosewhereCCDRshavebeenrecentlyinitiatedArgentinaBangladeshBurkinaFasoCameroonChadChinaEgyptGhanaIraqJordanKazakhstanMalawiMaliMauritaniaMoroccoNepalNigerPakistanPeruThePhilippinesRwandaSouthAfricaTürkiyeVietnamPublishedorinpressAngolaBrazilHondurasIndonesiaMozambiqueForthcomingUkraineSudanOnholdAzerbaijanBhutanCambodiaCentralAfricanRepublicColombiaDemocraticRepublicofCongoCôted'IvoireInitiatedDominicanRepublicEasternCaribbean(AntiguaandBarbuda,Dominica,Grenada,St.KittsandNevis,St.Lucia,andSt.VincentandtheGrenadines)EcuadorGuinea-BissauIndiaKenyaLebanonLiberiaMadagascarParaguayRomaniaTunisiaUzbekistanWestBankandGazaZimbabwePopulation(billions,2021)GDP($,trillions,2020)GHGemissions(MtCO2e,2018)2.7(34.0%)0.6(7.2%)1.8(23.2%)2.7(34.5%)19.4(22.4%)2.6(3.0%)60.5(69.9%)3.9(4.5%)15,980(33.8%)3,387(7.2%)5,460(11.5%)22,063(46.7%)393(0.8%)Note:MtCO2e=milliontonsofcarbondioxideequivalent.1https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/35799.2https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/36322.3https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/country-climate-development-reports.6ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionThissynthesispapersummarizesthemainemergingfindingsfromthefirstsetofCCDRs.Itidentifiescommonalitiesaswellasdifferencesandspecificitiesacrosscountrycontexts,incomegroups,andgeographies.Italsoaimstocombinetheseinsightstoinformhowinternationaldevelopmentpartnersandespeciallyhigh-incomecountries(HICs)shouldsupporttheglobaltransitiontowardamoreresilientlow-carbondevelopmentpath,includingthroughtheirownclimateactionandthroughsupporttoclimateactioninlow-andmiddle-incomecountries(LICsandMICs).ThefirstsetofCCDRsshowsthatresilient,low-carbondevelopmentispossible,butonlyifallcountriesembracemajorchange.ForLICsandMICs,thismeanschangestopolicies,regulations,andinvestments;forHICs,itmeansacceleratingtheirownclimateactionandprovidingincreasedsupporttoLICsandMICs.ThefirstsetofCCDRsdemonstratesthesignificantimpactofclimatechange,evenwhenestimatedonlyforasubsetofimpactcategoriesandwithoutincludingthelargerimpactsexpectedpost-2050.TheCCDRsexploresomeofthemostcriticaltransmissionchannelsofclimatechangeimpacts,suchaslaborproductivity,agriculturalyields,andwateravailability.Sectoralimpactassessmentsdemonstratehighvulnerabilitytoclimatechangewithsignificantimplicationsforfoodsecurityandhumanhealth(tableS.1).CCDRsalsolookatthebi-directionalrelationshipbetweenclimatechangeandrisksrelatedtofragility,conflict,andviolence.Differentanalyseswereperformedfordifferentcountries,dependingontheirneedsandvulnerabilities,butnotallchallengescouldbeexploredineverycountry.4Eventhesepartialanalyses,however,showsignificantmacroeconomiceffects,particularlyforpoorercountriesandespeciallyundertheassumptionofhigherlevelsofglobalwarming.TheCCDRanalysesshowalargeanddisproportionateimpactofclimatechangeonpovertyandeconomicopportunities,especiallyforthemostvulnerablemembersofsociety.Highervulnerabilityofpeopleinorclosetopovertyislinkedtohigherexposuretorisk(forexample,workingoutdoorsorlivinginlow-qualityhousing).Butitisalsolinkedtoalowerabilitytoprepareandrespond(forexample,lackingaccesstoborrowingorhavingnoorlowsavings)andloweraccesstosupportsystems,suchasremittances,socialprotection,healthcare,oravoiceindecisionmaking.4Inparticular,thefirstsetofCCDRsdoesnotincludesmallislandsthatmayfacemoredaunting—orevenexistential—challenges.CCDRscoveringsmallislandsareinprogress.KeyMessagesClimatechangeposesamajorthreattolong-termdevelopmentobjectives.»Climatechange—causedbyGHGemissionsfromhumanactivities—posesamajorthreattolong-rundevelopmentobjectives,especiallypovertyreduction.»Withappropriateadaptationpolicies,countriescanreduceimpactsintheshortterm.»Evenwithappropriateadaptation,successfuldevelopmentandpovertyreductionrequirerapidreductionsinglobalGHGemissions,whichrequiresfirstandforemostacceleratedmitigationactioninHICsandotherlargeemitters.7ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionTABLES.1:ExamplesofclimatechangeimpactsfromthefirstsetofCCDRsBy2030,Vietnamcouldexperienceagriculturallossesupto6.2%comparedto2010levelsasopposedtoascenariowithoutclimatechangewhereagriculturaloutputisestimatedtoincreaseby25%WateravailabilityinIraqcoulddeclineby13–28%by2050duetoclimatechangeBy2040,hydropowergenerationinGhanacouldbereducedby8–30%comparedto2020levelsDuetoincreasedfrequency,duration,andintensityofheatwaves,outdoorworkerproductivityinsomeprovincesofChinacoulddeclineby2–15%by2060By2050,inamoderate-warmingscenario,increasedtemperaturesinArgentinacouldslightlyreducemortalitythankstoadecreaseinextremecolddays,butclimatechangewouldincreasemortalityunderapessimistic-warmingscenarioWhiledroughtconditionsinMalawiincreasetheprobabilityofanindividualfallingbelowthepovertylineby14%,theimpactonindividualswithonlyaprimaryeducationrisesto26%,versus9%forthosewithahighereducationInRwanda,higheraveragetemperaturescouldcauseinternationaltourismdemandtodropby11–20%by2040ThepovertyrateintheSahelcountriescouldincreasefroma27%baselineto34%by2050inadryandhigh-emissionscenario,withanadditional13.5millionpeoplefallingintopovertyToreduceshort-termclimatechangeimpacts,theCCDRsmakerecommendationsforcountriestoboosttheirresiliencebycombining:1.Rapidandinclusivedevelopment—particularlythroughpovertyreductionandleverssuchasuniversalaccesstoinfrastructure,financialservices,educationandhealthservices,andeffectivesocialprotectionsystems—toenablepeople,firms,andcommunitiestobetteradapttoclimatechangeandcopewithandrecoverfromshocks.2.Awhole-of-societyapproachtoresilienceandadaptationtoensurethatclimaterisksareincorporatedinallinvestmentsanddecisionsatalllevels.Thisrequiresincreasedinvestmentsandmajorimprovementsindecision-makingcapacityandgovernance,whichcansignificantlyreducevulnerabilityandtheimpactsofclimatechange.3.Sectoralinterventions,coveringalargerangeofissuessuchaswatermanagement,agriculture,ecosystems,disasterriskmanagement,resilienceofinfrastructuresystems(energy,transport,water,communication),andprotectionofthepoorestandmostvulnerable.FigureS.2showsthebenefitsfromadaptationinterventionsexploredinasubsetofCCDRs,withsubstantialreductioninimpactongrossdomesticproduct(GDP)evenwithalimitedsetofadaptationmeasuresincluded.Evenwithadaptation,successfuldevelopmentandpovertyreductionrequireacceleratedmitigationaction,especiallyfromHICsandothercountrieswithlargeemissions.LimitstoadaptationandthegrowingrisksoftippingpointsastemperaturesincreasehighlighttheneedforacceleratedactiontoreduceglobalGHGemissions.WhileallcountrieshavearoletoplaytoachievethetemperaturegoaloftheParisAgreement,HICs—withtheirgreaterresponsibilityforhistoricalemissions,higheremissionspercapita,highercapacitytodevelopnewsolutionsandtechnologies,andlargerresources—mustleadthewaywithdeeperdecarbonizationata8ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionfasterpace(figureS.3).LICs,lowermiddle-incomecountries(LMICs),andpoorpeoplewithinmostcountriescontributeverylittletoGHGemissions.Ultimately,however,allcountrieswillneedtoadoptmitigationmeasures,particularlyhigh-emittingMICswhichrepresentagrowingshareofglobalemissions.LICsandMICscanalsobenefitfromlow-carbondevelopmentpoliciesandinvestments,includingbyavoidinglockingthemselvesintocarbon-intensiveurbanpatterns,energysystems,andvaluechainsthatcannotbeeasilycorrectedandmayconstraintheirfutureeconomicprospects.FIGURES.2:GDPimpactsofclimatechangeandadaptationandresilienceinterventionsin2050inpessimistic(high-emission)scenarios,forselectedcountriesLowincomeMalawiMaliChadNigerBurkinaFasoLowermiddleincomeMauritaniaBangladeshUppermiddleincomePeru-10-505-4.4-11.0-6.7-10.7-5.7-10.5-8.4-11.9-4.2-6.8-5.1-7.2-0.6-3.74.2-0.8Climatechangeimpactsonly(smallsymbol)Climatechangeimpactswithadaptation(largesymbol)GDPchangesin2050(percentagechange)Notes:Thesmalldotispartialimpactswithoutadaptation;thelargedotispartialimpactswith(partial)adaptationandsomeoftheirco-benefits.FIGURES.3:NetGHGemissionspercapita,bycountryincomegroup,201901234567Population(billions)024681012AveragenetGHGemissionspercapita(tCO2e/person/year,2019)LowermiddleincomeUppermiddleincomeHighincomeLowincome0K10K20K30K40KGDPpercapita($,2019)0510LowincomeLowermiddleincomeUppermiddleincomeHighincomeAveragenetGHGemissionspercapita(tC02e/person/year,2019)Sources:NetGHGemissionsdatafromClimateWatch,WorldResourcesInstitute2022,https://www.climatewatchdata.org;GDPandpopulationdatafromtheWorldBankDataBank9ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionTheCCDRsexploreillustrativepathwaystowardlow-carbondevelopmentthatconsidereachcountry’sclimatecommitments,incomelevel,potentialforrenewableenergyorland-basedemissionreductions(orcarbonremovals),domesticdevelopmentpriorities,andothercharacteristics.Asaresult,transitiontimingsandambitionlevelsvarybycountry.TheCCDRsidentifyclimateactionsthatacceleratelocaleconomicgrowthanddevelopmentandcontributetoemissionsreductionsinthenear-termwhilecountriesstrengthentheirinstitutions,governance,andeconomicstructuresinparallel,tounlockthefullpotentialinthelongterm.Thisincludestheimportantroleofprivatesectorinvestmentsinprioritysectorsandadequateinternationalsupport.Opportunitiesincluderenewableenergyandcleancooking;electrificationandenergyefficiencyoftransport,buildings,andindustry;betterwaterandlandusemanagement;andwiderparticipationingreenvaluechains,includingcriticalmineralmining.Whilesolarandwindenergyispartoftheleast-coststrategyinallcountries,evenwithoutconsideringclimateobjectives,theirrolegrowsevenlargerinlow-carbonscenarios.FigureS.4showsthedecliningroleofcoalandthegrowthinrenewables(primarilysolarandwind)acrossCCDRcountriesinthelow-carbondevelopmentpathwayscomparedwiththebaselinescenarios.Butcountriesoftenlackthepoliciesandinstitutionsrequiredtoattractormobilizethefinancingtheyneedtoachievethespeedandscaleofrenewableenergyinvestment—includinglargeinvestmentsinpowergridsandinterconnections—toachievetheirclimategoalsatthelowestcost.Achievingthismassivescaleupwillalsorequireastrongglobalsupplyresponseandexpansionofproductioncapacityforkeytechnologies.Reducingmethaneemissionsiscrucialforachievingglobalclimatetargetsandcanimproveresourceefficiency.ForsomeofthecountriescoveredbythefirstsetofCCDRs,methaneemissionsrepresentasignificantshareofoverallemissions(figureS.5).OpportunitiesexploredinCCDRsincludecapturingfugitivegasesinthegassupplychain;includingmethaneinemissionstrading;improvedlivestockandmanuremanagement;andimprovedmunicipalwastecollection,sorting,andtreatment.KeyMessagesClimateobjectivescanbeachievedwithoutcompromisingdevelopment,butonlyifkeyconditionsaremet.»SubstantialreductionsinGHGemissionsarecompatiblewitheconomicgrowthandcountrydevelopmentgoals,butonlyifkeyconditionsaremet,includingwell-designedclimateactions,strongparticipationoftheprivatesector,adequateinternationalsupport,andappropriatecomplementarymeasurestomanageunavoidabletrade-offs,protectpoorpeople’sconsumption,andfacilitateajusttransition.»MostCCDRlow-carbondevelopmentpathwaysaremoreambitiousthanexistingNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)andtheywouldreducetotalGHGemissionsinCCDRcountriesby70percentby2050,comparedwithacurrent-policyscenario.Takentogether,however,theywouldstillleadtosignificantemissionsin2050.Thisshowsnotonlytheneedtoadjustthesepathwaystoincreaseambitionovertime,butalsoforenhancedsupportfromandactioninHICs,includingwithnegativeemissions.10ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionFIGURES.4:Aggregatedpowergenerationcapacityinstalledinthebaselineandlow-carbondevelopmentpathwaysBaselineLow-carbondevelopmentpathway20202025203020352040Year20202025203020352040Year01234567Installedcapacity(terawatts)EnergysourceRenewablesNuclearOilGasCoalNotes:Theambitionlevelandtimingoftheenergytransitionsanalysesvarybycountry.Somelow-carbondevelopmentpathwayswerenotdesignedtoachievenet-zeroemissionsbymid-century.Thisfiguredescribestheenergytransition(inthepowersectoronly)thatresultedfromtheselow-carbonanalysesinaggregatebutshouldnotbeinterpretedasaprescriptionforlow-carbondevelopment.Someofthenaturalgascapacityinthelow-carbondevelopmentpathwaysincludescarboncaptureandstorage.Withintheanalyses,nucleardeploymentreflectsthecommitmentsofgovernments.Totalcapacityishigherinthelow-carbondevelopmentpathways,duetolowercapacityfactorandincreaseddemandfromelectrificationinothersectors.Countriesincludedinthefigureare:Bangladesh,BurkinaFaso,China,Egypt,Ghana,Iraq,Jordan,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Morocco,Niger,SouthAfrica,Türkiye,andVietnam.FIGURES.5:MethaneemissionspersectorintheCCDRcountries,201902004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800Emissions(MtCO2e)ChinaBrazilIndonesiaIraqPakistanArgentinaSouthAfricaBangladeshEgypt,ArabRep.VietnamKazakhstanPhilippinesTürkiyeAngolaChadPeruMozambiqueNigerNepalMaliCameroonBurkinaFasoGhanaMoroccoHondurasMauritaniaJordanMalawiRwanda27%21%12%42%21%8%37%27%15%49%44%60%26%15%50%34%7%18%15%13%17%31%11%26%29%41%17%24%8%Methaneemissions(percentofcountrytotal)SectorFugitiveemissionsEnergyAgricultureLandusechangeandforestryWasteOthers=ForthcomingSource:ClimateWatch,WorldResourcesInstitute2022https://www.climatewatchdata.orgNote:MtCO2e=milliontonsofcarbondioxideequivalent11ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionTakentogether,theselow-carbonpathwaysreduceGHGemissionsbymorethan50percentby2040,andmorethan70percentby2050(comparedtoreferencescenariosbasedoncurrentpolicies),butGHGemissionsstilltotalmorethan5gigatonsofcarbondioxideequivalentin2050(figureS.6).Thisshowsthat,althoughthe2030emissionsmilestonesformostofthelow-carbondevelopmentpathwaysaremoreambitiousthansubmittedNDCs,fortheworldtoachievegloballynetzeroemissionsinoraround2050,countrieswouldhavetoadjustthesepathwaystoincreaseambitionovertimeorrelyonnegativeemissionsinothercountries,includingHICs.FIGURES.6:TotalGHGemissionsinselectCCDRcountries(representing41percentofglobalemissions)2020/2021CCDRreferencescenarios,2040CCDRlow-carbonpathways,2040CCDRreferencescenarios,2050CCDRlow-carbonpathways,20500246810121416182022ArgentinaBangladeshGhanaKazakhstanMoroccoPakistanPeruPhilippinesRwandaTürkiyeVietnamChinaForthcomingEmissions(GtCO2e)18.621.09.620.75.4Note:GtCO2e=gigatonsofcarbondioxideequivalentAlthoughsectoraltransitioncostscanbesubstantial—includingfortheprivatesector—theillustrativelow-carbondevelopmentstrategiesintheCCDRswouldhavesmall,andoftenpositive,macroeconomiceffectsonGDPandconsumption,whencomparedwithacurrent-policyscenario.Evenwithoutaccountingforthebenefitsfromavoidedclimatechangeimpacts,theeffectsonGDPrangefromslightlynegativetoslightlypositive,withmorepositiveoutcomesinhigher-incomecountries(figureS.7).Immediateeconomicbenefitsarelinkedtoreducingfuelspendingandimports(thankstoenergyefficiency,electrification,andtheshifttorenewableenergy),whilelaborproductivitygainsandhealthbenefitsarelinkedtobetterairqualityandreducedcongestion.Thetransitionhassmall(oftenpositive)impactsonaggregateemployment,butaggregatevalueshidelossesinexposedsectors(especiallyfossilfuelsectors)andgainsinkeysectors,suchashealthandeducation(figureS.8).Theseallhavegenderimplicationsduetoexistingoccupationalsegregation,whilejoblossesinthebrown(polluting)sectorsoftendisproportionatelyaffectlower-skilled,poor,informal,andinsomecaseswomenandrural,workers.Withoutaddressingunderlyingstructurallabormarketissuesandconstraintsonprivatelabordemand,countrieswillstruggletomitigatetheimpactsofclimatechangeonworkersandfacilitatethelabormarkettransitionrequiredtosupportashifttowardmoreresilientandlower-carboneconomies.Climateactionsofferopportunitiesforcreatingjobs,butspatial,skill,andexpectationmismatchescan12ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionderailthesebenefits.Complementaryjusttransitionpoliciesandprogramscanmaximizepositivejoboutcomesandminimizedisruptionsanddisplacementfromthetransition.However,avoidinganegativeimpactongrowthorconsumptionrequiresthatsomekeyconditionsaremet.Forinstance,costsarehigheriflabormarketfrictionsarenotmanagedorifthelackofaccesstofinancingmeansthatrequiredinvestmentscrowdoutotherinvestments.Andincreasedinvestmentneedsoftenleadtoimpactsonhouseholdconsumptionthataremorenegative(orlesspositive)thanGDPimpacts,especiallyinlower-incomecountries(figureS.7).Theimpactonconsumptionhighlightstheimportanceofmobilizingfinancetominimizetrade-offswithconsumption,butalsotheneedforappropriatecompensationandsocialinterventionstoprotectpoorpeople’sconsumptionandfacilitateajusttransition.FIGURES.7:MacroeconomiceffectsonGDPandconsumptionin2030ofthemostambitiousclimatepoliciesexploredbyselectCCDRs,percountryincomegroup(withoutaccountingforbenefitsfromreducedcarbonemissionsandmitigatedclimatechange)LowincomeLowermiddleincomeUppermiddleincome-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0GDPLowincomeLowermiddleincomeUppermiddleincome0.5-0.13.30.13.2-1.21.02.2-1.7-0.2Impactsfromclimatechangepolicy(%)HouseholdconsumptionNote:IncludedCCDRcountriesare:low-incomecountries(Rwanda);lowermiddle-incomecountries(Bangladesh,Egypt,Ghana,Morocco,Nepal,Pakistan,Vietnam);anduppermiddle-incomecountries(Argentina,China,Iraq,Kazakhstan,Peru,Türkiye).FIGURES.8:Sectorallabordemandchangesin2030acrosssectors,forselectedcountriesSector-6-4-202468PercentchangeElectricityandgasMiningandquarryingWatersupplyandwastemanagementTransportationandstorageManufacturingInformationandcommunicationActivitiesofhouseholdsasemployersWholesaleandretailtradeRealestateactivitiesAccommodationandfoodserviceactivitiesOtherserviceArts,entertainmentandrecreationFinancialandinsuranceactivitiesPublicadministrationanddefenseConstructionAgriculture,forestryandﬁshingHealthandsocialworkEducationProfessional,scientiﬁcandtechnicalactivitiesAdministrativeandsupportserviceCountryBangladeshChinaKazakhstanPakistanPeruPhilippinesTürkiyeVietnamBangladeshChinaKazakhstanPakistanPeruPhilippinesTürkiyeVietnamNotes:Sectorsareorderedbyaveragelabordemandchangesacrosstheincludedcountries.Thesimulationsshownear-termchangesinsectorallabordemandrelativetoabusiness-as-usualscenario,stemmingfromsector-specific,largelyfiscal,mitigationand/oradaptationpolicymeasures.Miningandquarrying(-26.0%)forBangladeshisnotshownduetothescaleofthefigure.13ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionCCDRcountriesneedpublicandprivateinvestmentsthataverage1.4percentoftheirGDPover2022–30tobuildresilienceandbeontracktoreducetheiremissionsby70percentby2050.Thesefinancingneeds,alignedwithotherassessments,arelargebutmeetingthemisachievable.Investmentneeds,asashareofGDP,arelargerinlower-incomecountries,whichhavecontributedtheleasttoglobalwarmingandhavemorelimitedaccesstofinancing,becausetheyincludeinvestmentstowardunmetdevelopmentneedsandtoclosetheinfrastructuregap(figureS.9).FIGURES.9:Investmentneedsforaresilientandlow-carbonpathway,byincomegroup,2022–300%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%LowincomeLowermiddleincomeUppermiddleincome8.0%5.1%1.1%Additionalinvestmentneeds(shareofGDP)Note:Theseestimatesincludescenariosfrompublished,inpress,andforthcomingCCDRs.InmanyCCDRs,theseinvestmentneedsincludedevelopmentneeds,especiallythoselinkedtoclosinginfrastructuregaps—suchassolarminigridstoprovideenergyaccess—andcannotbeconsideredentirely“additional”topre-existingfinancingneeds.ThattheCCDRsidentifyalargershareofinvestmentneedsinLICsandLMICspartlyreflectslargerunmetdevelopmentneedsinthesecountries.Constrainedbymacroeconomicconditionsanddebtceilings,countriesneedtoimprovetheefficiencyoftheirpublicspending,repurposesubsidies,ensureenablingconditionsfortheprivatesector,andleverageconcessionalresources,carbonmarkets,andresults-basedfinancing.Repurposingenergysubsidiesorintroducingcarbonpricingoffersopportunitiesfordomesticresourcemobilization,fiscalconsolidation,andincreasedinvestmentindevelopmentandclimate,withlessnegativeimpactsongrowththanalternativetaxesorspendingcuts(eventhoughdistributionalimpactsandpoliticaleconomyissuesneedtobemanagedcarefully).KeyMessagesSuccessrequireschallengingpolicyreforms,reallocationofscarcepublicresources,increasedmobilizationofprivatecapital,andincreasedfinancialsupportfromtheinternationalcommunity.»Resilientandlow-carbonpathwayscandeliverneteconomicgains.Buttheywillnotberealizedwithoutimprovedandsustainedaccesstofinanceandmobilizationofprivatecapitaltomeetadditionalannualinvestmentneedsaveraging1.4percentofcountries’GDPover2022–30inallCCDRsand8percentinlow-incomeCCDRcountries.»Thetransitiontomoreresilientandlower-carbondevelopmentalsorequiresmanagingpoliticaleconomyobstacles,strengtheninginstitutionalcapacity,acceleratingdiffusionofnewtechnologies,andcarefulmanagementofnegativedistributionaloutcomes.»Toovercomethesechallengesandachieveajusttransition,allcountrieswillrequirecarefullydesignedpoliciesandreformsandscaled-upfinancialsupportfromrichereconomies.LICsinparticularwillneedaccesstosustainedlevelsofconcessionalresources,includinggrants,tomeettheinvestmentandspendingneedsforresilientlow-carbondevelopment.14ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionSomeoftheseinvestmentscanbefinancedbytheprivatesectorwiththerightenablingenvironment,whichwouldrequirepolicychangeandreforms,includinginthefinancialsector.Prioritizingcapitalmarketdevelopmentiskeyinallcountries—forexample,throughprojectpreparationsupporttodevelopalargerprojectpipeline,orinstrumentstoaddresspoliticalrisk.Developinganationalstrategyforgreeningthefinancialsectorcanalsofacilitateclimateactionfinancing,throughclimate-relateddisclosureandbydevelopinggreentaxonomies.Incountrieswithpoorcreditratingsorhighperceivedrisks,publiccapitalorconcessionalfundsmaybeneededtoimprovetherisk-returnprofileofinvestments.Forexample,inLICsandmanyMICs,highcapitalcostsoftenpreventinvestmentsincapital-intensive,renewable-energyprojectsthatareotherwiseeconomicallyviable.Ajusttransition—forexample,awayfromcoal—willalsorequiretransfersandcompensation,andLICswillneedbothpublicresourcesandinternationalsupporttomeettheseneeds.Multiplefinancinginstrumentscanhelpcountriesmeettheirinvestmentneeds,withconcessionalresourcesplayinganimportantrole,especiallyinLICs.Somecountrieshavealreadyissuedsovereignorcorporategreenbondsandcouldexploregreenequity,insurance,andalternativefinancingproducts,includingperformance-linkedbonds.MostCCDRsrecommendblendedfinanceinstruments,suchascreditenhancementforissuingbonds,andpublic-privatepartnerships.Internationalcarbonmarketsandsustainability-linkedbondsandloanscanalsoprovidefundingorfinancingforsovereignsandstate-ownedenterprises.TohelpcoversomeofthecostsidentifiedintheCCDRs,governmentsneedtobeabletoaccess—andtheworldcommunitymustmakeavailable—grantfundingtohelpcoversomeofthecostsidentifiedintheCCDRs,especiallyforsocialexpenditureandensuringajusttransition,andinparticularinLICs.Althoughaccesstofinancingisacriticalbarrier,theCCDRsidentifyfourothermajorchallengesthatrequirecarefulconsiderationinpolicydesign,aswellasspecificsupportfromtheinternationalcommunity.1.Thecomplexpoliticaleconomybarrierstoclimateactionwherepowerfulactors,interestgroups,orthepublicdonotsupportreforms.SomekeyreformsidentifiedbytheCCDRs—forexampleenergy,water,oragriculturalsubsidiesreform—couldhavelargeaggregatebenefitsbutareblockedbydifficultpoliticaleconomychallenges.Buildingeffectiveinstitutions,managingdistributionalimpacts,politicalincentives,andclearpolicycommunicationcanallhelpimprovethepoliticaleconomyofpolicyreform.ManyoftheCCDRsalsocallforframeworklegislationorastronginstitutionalanchorforclimatepolicytoembedlong-termpolicydirection.Maximizingandemphasizingtheimmediateanddirectbenefitsthatclimateactiondeliverscanalsohelpbuildconsensusandfacilitateimplementation.2.Poorgovernanceandinadequateinstitutionalcapacity.Thelackofacohesiveandcomprehensivelegal,regulatory,policyandinstitutionalframeworkforeffectiveintegrationofclimatechangeadaptationandmitigationactionsacrossvarioussectorsandgovernmentplansisamajorobstacletounlockingresilientandlow-carbondevelopment.Furtherworkisneededtomainstreamclimatechangeintocountries’planning,publicfinance,intergovernmental,andaccountabilitysystems.3.Availabilityandcostofkeytechnologicalsolutions.Althoughtheshort-termsolutionshighlightedinCCDRsarebasedoncommerciallyavailabletechnologies,overthelongrun,resilientandlow-carbonpathwaysrelyoninnovativetechnologicalsolutions(suchasgreen15ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionsteel,hydrogen,orcarboncaptureandstorage)andrapiddiffusionofexistingtechnologies,suchasbatteryenergystorage.Acceleratedclimateaction,especiallyinHICs,isneededtoimprovelow-carbontechnologiesandreducecostsofexistingtechnologies.LICsandMICsneedtoinvestineducationandanenablingenvironmenttoacceleratethediffusionoftheseinnovativesolutions.4.Negativedistributionaloutcomesoncertaincommunities,sectors,orregions,evenwhenthetransitionispositiveinaggregate.NearlyalltheCCDRsrecommendstrengtheningsocialprotectionandimprovingtargetingtomakecashtransfersmoreeffectivetopromoteafairandjusttransition.Ajusttransitionmustofferalternativelivelihoods,giveakeyroletoeducationandlabormarketpolicies,andsupportinvestmentsinaffectedcommunities.Beyondreskilling,countriesneedtoaddressbroaderinclusionofthepoorinthetransitiontowardalow-carboneconomy.Thistransitionshouldalsoincludeopportunitiesfortheprivatesectortocreatenewjobs.MostoftheCCDRsidentifyasetofprioritiesforthenextfiveyears,focusingonthemostimportantorurgentissuesineachcountrycontext.Inpractice,prioritizationandsequencingarebasedontwodimensions:•Theoutcomesoftheproposedinterventionsintermsofdevelopmentbenefits,prioritizinginterventionsthatdeliverclimatebenefitsaswellasdevelopmentgainsintermsofgrowth,povertyreduction,orimprovedwell-being.•Theurgencyoftheproposedinterventions,forbothresilienceandemissionsreductions,prioritizinginterventionsthatcannotbedelayed,becauseitwouldeitherincreasethecostsandreducefeasibilityorcreateirreversibledamage.Duetothedifficultbarriersfacedbyallcountries,particularlyLICs,prioritizingandsequencinginvestmentsiscrucial,andinternationalsupport—throughtechnicalassistanceandfinancewithconcessionalelements—isessential.Acceleratedemissionsreductionsinhigher-incomeandlarge-emittingcountries,includingactiononshort-livedclimatepollutantswithhighglobalwarmingpotentialsuchasmethane,arealsonecessarytostabilizeclimatechangeandreducetheincreasingneedforadaptation.KeyMessagesToachieveasuccessfultransition,allcountrieswillneedtoprioritizeandsequencepolicyreformsandinvestments.»TheCCDRsidentifycountry-specificpriorityactionsandinterventionsthatwouldeitherdeliverimmediatedevelopmentbenefitsorwhosedelaywouldcreatelock-ineffectsorlargercostsinthefuture.»Thesepriorities,whichcoverallsectorsandincludebothadaptationandmitigation,demonstratetheimportanceofmainstreamingclimatechangeintomacroeconomicandsectoralpolicies,regulations,andinvestments.16ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionAnanalysisoftherecommendationsacrosstheCCDRsshowsthemultisectoralandmacroeconomicdimensionofresilientandlow-carbondevelopment.Whilethenumberofrecommendationsineachsectordoesnotfairlyrepresenttheirimportanceorurgency,figureS.10showsthattheCCDRrecommendationsspanallsectors.Thehighnumberofeconomywiderecommendationsconfirmstheneedtomainstreamclimateadaptationandmitigationintodevelopmentandeconomicpolicies,includingonfiscalandfinancialissues.ThetopfiveissuescoveredbytherecommendationshighlightedintheCCDRsareclimatefinance,decarbonizingpower,economywideresilienceandadaptation(includingsocialaspects),water-relatedresilience,anddecarbonizingtransport(figureS.11).FIGURES.10:Distributionofadaptationandmitigationrecommendations,bysectorEconomywideEnergyTransportWaterAgricultureFinanceBuildingsForestryIndustryEnvironmentHealthEducationWasteMining0306090120150NumberofpolicyrecommendationsAdaptationMitigationBothFIGURES.11:KeypolicyissuestackledintheCCDRrecommendationsClimatefinanceDecarbonizepowerEconomywideresilienceandadaptationWater-relatedresilienceDecarbonizetransportGovernanceClimate-smartagricultureJusttransitionClimatefiscalpoliciesDeforestationUrbanplanningDecarbonizeenergy(general)EnergyefficiencyImprovemacroeconomicandenablingenvironmentEcosystemservicesandnaturalresourcemangementDisasterriskmanagementSocialprotectionWastemanagementGreentradeCleancookingGreenbuildingsDecarbonizeindustryAirqualityNumberofpolicyrecommendationsAdaptationMitigationBoth02040608010017ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforActionTheCCDRsareWorldBankGroupdiagnosticsthataimtohelpcountriesachievetheirdevelopmentandclimategoalstogether,buttheyonlyrepresentonestepandonecomponentinalongerandbroaderprocess.TheCCDRsrecognizethatineachcountry,agovernment-ledprioritizationandsequencingexerciseisanessentialsteptotranslatethediagnosticintoacountry-ownedstrategyandimplementableinvestmentplan.ForthecountriesinthefirstsetofCCDRs,wewillbestrivingtousetheanalysistoengagewithourpublicandprivatesectorclientstotranslatekeyrecommendationsintodevelopmentandclimateprioritiesgoingforward,includingthroughtheWorldBankGroupcountryengagementframeworkandoperationalportfolioandbyinformingthedesignofinterventionssupportedbytheInternationalMonetaryFundResilienceandSustainabilityFund.BeyondtheWorldBankGroupportfolio,aCCDRcanbeanopportunityforgovernmentsandprivatesectorinvestors,citizens,internationalfinancinginstitutions,andWorldBankpartnerstoengageondevelopmentandclimateaction,withbettercountry-levelcoordination.Throughourglobaladvocacy,conveningpower,andsupporttoclientcountriesandtheprivatesector,theWorldBankGroupwillparticipateinthiseffortthroughavarietyofchannels,includingsupportingCCDRactionsandrecommendations,whiledeliveringonourcorporatemandatetoeliminateextremepovertyandboostsharedprosperity.

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