欧盟碳交易报告（英）-Oxera

Carbon trading in the European Union An economic assessment of market functioning in 2021 Prepared for ICE 15 February 2022 www.oxera.com Carbon trading in the European Union Oxera Contents Executive summary 1 1 Introduction 4 1.1 Context and objectives of this report 4 1.2 Structure 6 2 The fundamentals of carbon trading 8 2.1 The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme 8 2.2 What are EUAs? 12 2.3 The auction process for EUAs 13 2.4 The role of carbon prices in the transition to net zero 14 3 What is the role of derivatives and derivatives exchanges in the context of carbon trading? 19 3.1 Derivatives in carbon markets 19 3.2 What is the role of derivatives exchanges? 22 3.3 Regulatory framework governing carbon trading 26 3.4 Trading strategies—who trades and why? 28 4 Evidence of market functioning 33 4.1 Our approach and economic framework 33 4.2 Evidence on resilience 34 4.3 Evidence on price formation 40 4.4 Evidence on liquidity 41 5 How does derivatives trading affect carbon pricing? 44 5.1 What are the fundamental drivers behind the recent rise in carbon prices? 44 5.2 What is the link between the carbon price and its derivatives markets? 48 5.3 What is the impact of speculative trading on carbon pricing? 51 6 Policy implications 58 A Appendices 60 Carbon trading in the European Union Oxera Figures and tables Box 3.1 Characteristics of EUA derivatives traded on ICE 20 Box 3.2 Activities undertaken by derivatives exchanges to facilitate EU carbon trading 25 Box 3.3 ICE’s market surveillance activities in its carbon derivatives contracts 27 Box 3.4 An illustrative example of the gains of trading EUAs to compliance entities 31 Box 3.5 Case study: power utility hedging using E...