EstimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationPracticalguidancetostrengthenglobalclimatecommitmentsSimonKönig,ErinD.Matson,ElmedinaKrilasevicandMariaGarciaEspinosaINTERNATIONALUNIONFORCONSERVATIONOFNATUREEstimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationPracticalguidancetostrengthenglobalclimatecommitmentsSimonKönig,ErinD.Matson,ElmedinaKrilasevicandMariaGarciaEspinosaThedesignationofgeographicalentitiesinthisbook,andthepresentationofthematerial,donotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartofIUCNClimateFocusandtheGermanFederalMinistryfortheEnvironmentorNatureConservationandNuclearSafetyconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,orarea,orofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationdonotnecessarilyreflectthoseofIUCN,ClimateFocusandtheGermanFederalMinistryfortheEnvironment,NatureConservationandNuclearSafety.ThepublicationisdevelopedwithsupportofClimateFocus.FundedbyInternationalClimateInitiativeoftheGermanFederalMinistryfortheEnvironment,NatureConservationandNuclearSafety.©2019IUCN,InternationalUnionforConservationofNatureandNaturalResourcesReproductionofthispublicationforeducationalorothernon-commercialpurposesisauthorizedwithoutpriorwrittenpermissionfromthecopyrightholderprovidedthesourceisfullyacknowledged.Reproductionofthispublicationforresaleorothercommercialpurposesisprohibitedwithoutpriorwrittenpermissionofthecopyrightholder.König,S.,Matson,E.D.,Krilasevic,E.andGarciaEspinosa,M.(2019).Estimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestoration:Practicalguidancetostrengthenglobalclimatecommitments.Gland,Switzerland:IUCN.iStockZapallDesignIUCN(InternationalUnionforConservationofNature)ForestConservationProgrammeRueMauverney281196Gland,SwitzerlandTel+41229990000Fax+41229990002elmedina.krilasevic@iucn.orghttps://www.iucn.org/theme/forests/resourceswww.iucn.org/resources/publicationsIUCN,Gland,SwitzerlandPublishedby:Copyright:Citation:Coverphoto:Layout:Availablefrom:iiiContentsAcknowledgementsListofabbreviationsandacronymsGlossaryListoffigures,boxesandtablesPurposeTheroleofforestlandscaperestorationinmitigatingclimatechangeTheimportanceofaligningwithnationaland/orsub-nationalprocessesSimplifiedestimationofthelong-termmitigationpotentialofFLRStep1:Definetypeandscopeofforestlandscaperestoration(FLR)activities1.1.DefineFLRactivitiesandpre-FLRlanduse1.2.DefineFLRareabypre-FLRlanduse1.3.DefinetemporalscopeStep2:Determinechangesincarbonstocksandgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions2.1.SelectcarbonpoolsandGHGemissionsources2.2.SelectcarbonstockvaluesandGHGemissionfactors2.3.DeterminecarbonpoolsandGHGemissionsourcesignificanceStep3:Calculatemitigationpotentialivvviix1359121214141515182424ivAcknowledgementsSpecialthankstoNaikoaAguilar-Amuchastegui,LaraMurray,MichaelWolosinandManuelEstrada,fortheirvaluablecontributionandfeedbackprovidedduringtheproductionstage.OursinceregratitudetoCaroleSaintLaurentontheguidanceprovidedthroughoutthepublicationdevelopmentprocess.vListofabbreviationsandacronymsAgriculture,ForestryandOtherLandUseBiennialUpdateReportsCarbonMethanecarbondioxideemissionreductionandremovalForestLandscapeRestorationForestReferenceEmissionLevelsgreenhousegasTheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeInternationalUnionforConservationofNatureLandUse,Land-useChangeandForestryNationalCommunicationsNationallyDeterminedContributionNationalInventoryReportNitrousoxideReducingemissionsfromdeforestationandforestdegradationandtheroleofconservation,sustainablemanagementofforestsandenhancementofforestcarbonstocksindevelopingcountriesTheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeAFOLUBURCCH4CO2ERFLRFRELGHGIPCCIUCNLULUCFNCNDCNIRN2OREDD+UNFCCCviGlossaryAFOLUAgriculture,ForestryandOtherLandUse.Forthe2006IPCCGuidelines,agriculturewasincorporatedwithLULUCFintotheIPCC’snewland-useframework,AFOLU.InadditiontothecategoriesincludedinLULUCF,AFOLUincludesagriculturalpracticessuchasfertiliserapplication,ricecultivationandlivestock-relatedemissionssuchasentericfermentationandmanuremanagement.Foruseinthecommonreportingformat(CRF)forAnnexIcountrysubmissionofNationalGHGinventories.BaselineThebaselineorreferencelevelofcarbonstocksorGHGemissionsinalandscapeagainstwhichadditionalgainsorlossesaremeasured.Thebaselineisgenerallyassumedtobethestocksandemissionslevelsthatexistbeforeagiveninterventionisundertaken.Abaselineapproachholdsothervaluesinthelandscapeconstantandfocusesontheavoidedcostsorcapturedbenefitsofasingleintervention.BURBiennialUpdateReports.BURsaresubmittedbynon-AnnexIpartiestotheUNFCCCeverytwoyears.ThesereportscontainupdatesoninformationfromtheNCs,particularlyregardingGHGinventories,mitigationactions,neededresourcesorcapacitytoaddressconstraintsandgapsandsupportreceived.EachBURcontains,ataminimum,theinventoryforacalendaryearnomorethanfouryearspriortothedateofsubmission.CCarbon.VegetationsequestersCO2fromtheairandstoresitascarboninbiomassandsoils.CO2valuesareconvertedtoCaccordingtotherespectivemolecularweightasC=CO2/(44/12)CarbonpoolAsystemthathasthecapacitytostoreorreleasecarbon.TheMarrakeshAccordsrecognisefivemaincarbonpoolsorreservoirsinforests:above-groundbiomass,below-groundbiomass,deadwood,litterandsoilorganicmatter.CarbonstockVolumeofcarbonstoredinacarbonpool.CH4Methane.Agreenhousegasthat,inthelandsector,isemittedthroughcertainland-usepracticessuchasentericfermentationthattakesplaceinthedigestivesystemsofruminantlivestock,certainricecultivationmethods,manureandwetlandmanagement.Whileconsideredashort-livedclimatepollutantandatlowerconcentrationlevelsintheatmosphere,methanehasahighradiativeforcingeffectthatinresultsinincreasedpotentialforglobalwarming.CO2Carbondioxide.Agreenhousegas(GHG)that,inthelandsector,isemittedasaresultofprocessesincludingrespiration,oxidation,biomassdecayandburning.Deforestation,forestandlanddegradationarecommoncauses.Conversely,FLRpracticescansequester/removeCO2fromtheatmosphereandenhancecarbonstocks.viiEmissionsGreenhousegasesemittedtotheatmospherecommonlyexpressedinCO2equivalent(CO2e)EmissionfactorAmountofacertainGHGreleasedtotheatmosphereforagivenunitandtimeframesuchastCO2/ha/yrFRELForestReferenceEmissionLevels.FRELsserveasabenchmarktoassesscountryperformanceinREDD+activities.Countriesmustsetreferencelevelstoreceiveresults-basedpaymentsforemissionsreductions.FRELsarereportedintonnesofCO2equivalentperyearforthereferenceperiodandarecalculatedusingIPCCguidanceconsistentwiththenationalGHGinventory.GHGInventoryAnnualnationalgreenhousegas(GHG)inventoriesaccountforthedirectGHGemissionsandremovalsfromfivesectors,includingagricultureandlanduse,land-usechangeandforestry.ForAnnexIcountries,theGHGinventoriesaresubmittedeveryyearintwoparts:thecommonreportingformat(CRF)tables,whichcontainquantitativeinformationandtheNationalinventoryreport.Fornon-AnnexIcountries,GHGinventoriesareupdatedinnationalcommunicationsandbiennialupdatereports.IPCCTheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.TheIPCCisaninternationalassessmentbodyestablishedin1988toprovidetheworldwithaclearscientificviewonthecurrentstateofknowledgeinclimatechangeandthepotentialenvironmentalandsocio-economicimpacts.TheIPCCprovidesguidanceonestimatingGHGemissions,removalsandstocksthatcountrieshaveusedtoreporttotheUNFCCCsince1996.GoodPracticeGuidancepublishedin2003forthelanduse,land-usechangeandforestrysectorsprovidesmethodologiestoestimatechangesinfivecarbonpools(above-groundbiomass,below-groundbiomass,deadwood,litterandsoilorganicmatter)andnon-CO2emissionsforsixland-usecategoriesandforland-usechanges.Thesemethodologiescanbeemployedatthreelevelsofdetail,called“tiers.”Tier1istheleastdetailedandisalsocalledthe“defaultmethod,”designedtobeimplementedbyanycountry.Tiers2and3requireprogressivelymoredetailedandcountry-specificinformationbasedonfieldworkand/orhigh-resolutionspatialdata.LifetimeTheperiodoverwhichanFLRactivityismaintainedonceimplementationhasstartedLULUCFLandUse,Land-useChangeandForestry.Aland-usecategorisationframeworkcodifiedinthe2003GoodPracticeGuidelinesforLULUCF;includesforestland,grassland,cropland,settlements,wetlandsandotherlands(e.g.ice,rock,baresoil).Ineachland-usecategory,emissionsandremovalsareestimatedfromlivingbiomass,deadorganicmatterandsoilorganiccarbon.NCNationalCommunications.NCsaresubmittedbynon-AnnexIpartiestotheUNFCCCeveryfouryears.TheyprovideinformationonnationalGHGinventoriesaswellasmeasurestakenforclimatechangemitigationandadaptation.NCsincludebothcountry-specificadaptationandmitigationassessments.viiiNDCNationallyDeterminedContribution.AsrequiredbytheParisAgreement,theNDCsareactionplansdevelopedbycountriestodetailtheireffortstoreducegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsandadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange.CountriesagreetoreviewandresubmittheirNDCstotheUNFCCCevery5years,withthefirstresubmissionin2020.NDCsmaydefinespecifictargetsfortheland-usesector(intermsofemissionsand/orlandarea).NIRNationalInventoryReport.TheNIRscontaindetailedinformationontheGHGinventoryforAnnexIcountries,includingdescriptionsofthemethodologiesusedintheestimations,thedatasources,theinstitutionalarrangementsforthepreparationoftheinventoryandrecalculationsandchangescomparedwiththepreviousinventory.N2ONitrousoxide.Agreenhousegasthat,inthelandsector,canbeemittedfromtheapplicationofcertainfertilisers,manuresandcomposttosoilsandotheractivitiesassociatedwithlivestockstorageandmanagement.NitrousoxideislessconcentratedintheatmospherethanCO2andCH4buthasamuchhigherradiativeforcingeffectthanboththatresultsinincreasedpotentialforglobalwarming.REDD+Reducingemissionsfromdeforestationandforestdegradationandtheroleofconservation,sustainablemanagementofforestsandenhancementofforestcarbonstocksindevelopingcountries.REDD+wasdevelopedinparttoslow,haltandreverseforestcoverandcarbonloss.REDD+implementationfollowsthreestages,beginningwithnationalstrategyandcapacity-building,thenmovingtoimplementationandreviewofnationalstrategiesiffurtherresourceswereprovidedandfinallyresult-basedactionsandfinance.ROAMRestorationOpportunitiesAssessmentMethodology.AframeworkdevelopedbyIUCNincollaborationwiththeWorldResourcesInstituteforcountriestoidentifyandanalyseareaswithpotentialforForestandLandscapeRestoration(FLR)andtoidentifyspecificpriorityareasatanationalorsub-nationallevel.UNFCCCTheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange.TheUNFCCCisaninternationalenvironmentaltreatythatseekstostabilisegreenhousegasconcentrationsintheatmosphereatalevelthatwillpreventdangerousanthropogenicinterferences.195countrieshaveratifiedtheConvention,whichmeetyearlyattheConferenceoftheParties(COP).ThetreatywasnegotiatedinRiodeJaneiroin1992andsetintoforcein1994.UndertheUNFCCC,countriesarerequiredtosubmitregularlyupdatedGHGinventoriesusingIPCCmethodologies.ixListoffiguresFigure1:RelationshipsbetweenFLRplanningandclimateandrestorationcommitments.....Figure2:AssessmentofFLRactivitycoverageinnationalgreenhousegasestimationandsub-nationalprogrammes.......................................................................................................Figure3:PotentialNationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC)enhancementopportunities....Figure4:RecommendedstepstoestimateFLRmitigationpotential......................................ListofboxesBox1:PubliclyavailablecountrysubmissionstotheUNFCCCthatcansupportERestimationfromFLR...............................................................................................................Box2:Definingactivitydataandemissionfactors.................................................................Box3:LifetimeofFLRactivities.............................................................................................Box4:Calculationoflong-termaveragecarbonstocks.........................................................Box5:Keyprinciplesformitigationestimation.......................................................................ListofworksheetsWorksheet1:DefinetheFLRactivities,pre-FLRlanduseandcorrespondingland-usetransitioncategories...............................................................................................................Worksheet1.f.:DefineFLRareabypre-FLRlanduse...........................................................Worksheet2,part1:Samplecalculationoflong-termaveragecarbonstocks,withandwithoutharvesting..................................................................................................................Worksheet2,part2:SamplecalculationoflifetimeGHGemissions.....................................Worksheet3:Long-termaveragecarbonstocksandlifetimeGHGemissionsbyland-usecategory.................................................................................................................................Worksheet4:Mitigationpotentialcalculations.......................................................................ReferencestablesReferenceTable1::ExamplesofFLRactivitiesaccordingtoIPCCAFOLUland-usecategories..............................................................................................................................ReferenceTable2:Descriptionofcarbonpoolsandgreenhousegasemissions..................Listoffigures,boxesandtables278126101011171314192022254151EstimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationThisdocumentaimstoguideproponentsanddevelopersofforestlandscaperestoration(FLR)activitiesandprogrammesintherapidestimationofFLRmitigationpotential,alignmentwithnationalgreenhousegas(GHG)estimationprocessesandidentificationofopportunitiestoenhancetheroleofFLRinnationalmitigationefforts.Byfollowingthisguidance,theuserwillbeableto:UnderstandtherelationshipbetweenFLRopportunitiesandnationalGHGestimationprocessesSummariseandclearlydefinetheidentifiedFLRopportunitieswithrelevanceforestimatingthemitigationpotentialIdentifyresourcesforestimatingmitigationpotentialandcalculateestimatesforselectFLRactivitiesIdentifypotentialgapsinthescopeofnationalGHGestimationandNDCswhilehighlightingconcreteopportunitiesfortheirrespectiveenhancement1AvailabletoolsincludetheEx-AnteCarbon-balanceTool(EX-ACT)fromtheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(http://www.fao.org/tc/exact/ex-act-home/en/);theForestLandscapeRestorationClimateImpactTooldevelopedbyWinrockInternationalandIUCN(https://www.winrock.org/document/forest-landscape-restoration-climate-impact-tool/);andCarboScen,createdbytheCenterforInternationalForestryResearch(CIFOR)(https://www.cifor.org/gcs/toolboxes/carboscen/).EnsurealevelofharmonisationformitigationpotentialestimatesinawaythatcouldfacilitateglobalaggregationtodemonstratethemitigationpotentialacrosscountriesorregionsGenerateawarenessandcommunicatethemitigationpotentialofcontemplatedFLRactivitiesincludingtowardstheachievementofNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)andBonnChallengetargetsProvideabasisforreportingprogressagainstrestorationgoalsthatmayhavebeendefinedunderNDCs,initiativessuchastheBonnChallengeortheNewYorkDeclarationonForests.AnumberofusefultoolsexistforestimatingtheGHGandcarbonimpactsofland-useactivities.1Thesetoolsallowforanin-depthestimationofcertainFLRactivitiesusingglobalorregionally-specificdata.Tovaryingdegreestheygenerateestimatesthataresufficientlyreliabletoservefornationalandsub-nationalGHGreporting.However,suchtoolsPurpose12345672Figure1:RelationshipbetweenFLRplanningandclimateandrestorationcommitmentstypicallyrequireasophisticatedunderstandingofGHGestimationprocessesandhighlydetailedinformationFLRactivities.Thesetoolsandtheguidancedocumentarecomplementary.TheycanbeusedincombinationspecificallytostrengthenidentificationofFLRinterventionsandcorrespondinglandusetransitionsrelevantforGHGestimates.However,theguidancecanbeusedindependentlytogenerateestimatestailoredtothespecificneedsofindividualFLRprograms.Thisguidancefillsagapbyplacingspecificemphasison:1)aligningFLRmitigationpotentialestimationwithexistingnationalandsub-nationalprocessesand;2)creatingacost-effectivepreliminaryestimationoflong-termmitigationbenefits.TheseearlyestimatesaresuitableforleveragingadditionalsupportforFLRandhighlightingmitigationpotentialtoinformnationalandsub-nationalGHGestimationprocessesandcommitments.Figure1illustratesthepotentialformutuallyreinforcingrelationshipsbetweentheeffortsofFLRproponentsandongoingprogrammes,processesandcommitmentsattheinternational,nationalandsub-nationallevel.Thisfigureisnotcomprehensivebutaimstoillustrateopportunitiesforhowtheoutputsfromapplyingthisguidancecouldbeutilised.PurposeForestLandscapeRestorationEffortsContributetoachievementofclimategoalsandincreaseambitionthroughenhancedawarenessofFLRmitigationbenefitsContributeresourcesandothersupportforacceleratedprogressinFLRimplementationIdentifygapsandexpandscopeofexistingGHGmonitoringandreportingsystemsanddataLeverageexistingGHGmonitoringandreportingsystemsanddatatoestimateFLRmitigationbenefitsEconomicSocialEnvironmentalGHGreductionsandremovalsActivitiesBenefitsPlantedForests&WoodlandsNaturalRegeneration...OngoingCommitmentsandReporting(International,national,sub-national)ParisAgreement&NationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)IncludingnationalstrategiesprogressreportingREDD+&LandscapePrograms(e.g.ForestCarbonPartnershipFacility(FCPF),BioCarbonFund(ISFL),etc.)RestorationPledges(e.g.BonnChallenge)Nationalandsub-nationalmonitoringandreportingsystemsGHGreductionsandremovals3EstimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationTheForestLandscapeRestoration(FLR)2approachcanbeappliedtolanduseplanningandmanagementinordertoregaintheecologicalandproductivefunctionalityoflandscapes.Itencompassesawiderangeofeconomically,environmentallyandsociallybeneficiallanduseactivitiesonagricultural,forestanddeforestedlands,broughttogetherinalandusemosaic.SomeexamplesofindividualFLRinterventionsonlandincludeplantedforestsandwoodlots,assistednaturalregeneration,silviculture,agroforestry,improvedfallows,establishmentoftreesonfarms,mangroverestoration,watershedprotectionanderosioncontrolmeasures.Forclimatemitigation,FLRutilisesthenaturalcarboncycletoincreaseterrestrialcarbonstorageinvegetationandsoils.ThepotentialofFLRactivitiestoremoveCO2fromtheatmosphere–andavoidemissionsbyreducingpressureonnaturalforests–isbecomingincreasinglyimportantasgovernments,civilsocietyorganisationsandprivatesectorplayersarelookingforpathwaystomeetingthe1.5°Cgoalformulatedunderthe2InternationalUnionforConservationofNature(IUCN)(n.d.)WhatisFLR?InfoFLR.https://infoflr.org/what-flr.3Roe,S.,Streck,C.,Weiner,P.H.,Obersteiner,M.andFrank,S.(2017).HowImprovedLandUseCanContributetothe1.5CGoaloftheParisAgreement.Retrievedfromhttps://www.climatefocus.com/sites/default/files/CIFF%20Report.pdf.ParisAgreement.CarbonstockenhancementsfromnaturalclimatesolutionsincludingtheFLRapproachareurgentlyneededtomeetthe1.5°Cgoal.3ReferenceTable1providesexamplesofFLRactivitiesinrelationtolandusecategoriesusedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)andpotentialimpactsofthoseactivitiestoGHGemissionsandremovals.FLRactivitiesarebeingpromoted,developed,financedandimplementedbyarangeofprogrammes,initiativesandpublic,privateandcivilsocietyorganisations.However,theextenttowhichmitigationpotentialhasbeenestimated,alignedwithandleveragedfornationalGHGtargetsislimited.Amongotherfactors,thiscanbeexplainedbytheemergingnatureofmanynationalGHGestimationprocesses–especiallyforemissionsandremovalsfromlandusepractices–andalackofexperienceofGHGestimationbymanyFLRpractitioners.ThisdocumentprovidesguidancetohelpfillthisgapandraisetheawarenessofthemitigationpotentialofFLR.Theroleofforestlandscaperestorationinmitigatingclimatechange4ReferenceTable1:ExamplesofFLRactivitiesaccordingtoIPCCAFOLUland-usecategoriesIPCCAFOLUland-usecategoryoftheFLRlanduseSubcategory(land-usetransition)Firstletterindicatespre-FLRlanduse,secondletterindicatesFLRlanduseFLRactivityexamplesPotentialGHGimpactsofFLRactivityForestLand(F)Forestlandremainingforestland(FF)-Extendedrotationlengthinplantations&woodlots-Transitiontomixedspeciesplantations-Activeorassistednaturalregenerationofnaturalforest-Improvedmanagementofnaturalforest-SilviculturaltreatmentofloggedforestEnhancedCstocksinbiomassofexistingornewtreestocksandsoilsthroughimprovedforestmanagement.MayreduceCH4andN2OemissionfromwildfirescomparedtopriorlandusebutmayincreaseN2Oemissionsfromfertilizeruse.Landconvertedtoforestland(LF)-Afforestation/reforestation-Newtreeplantations-EstablishmentofbufferzonesCropland(C)Croplandremainingcropland(CC)-Establishmentoflivefences&windbreaksoncropland-Mixedplantationsassociatedwithannualcrops-Lowdensity/heightagroforestrysystemsEnhancedCstocksinbiomassofnewcrop,timber,shadetreesandsoilsthroughtreeplantingandimprovedsoilmanagement.MayreduceCH4andN2Oemissionfromwildfirescomparedtopriorlanduse.MayincreaseordecreaseN2Oemissionsrelativetopriorlandusedependingonfertilisationregime.-Improvedfallowofcroplands-ImprovedsoilmanagementandconservationLandconvertedtocropland(LC)-Conversionofinvasivespecies-dominatedlandtoannualorpermanentcrops.-Conversionofdegradedpasturestoannualorpermanentcropland.MaybeassociatedwithgainsorlossofCstockinbiomassinvegetationandsoils.MayreduceCH4andN2Oemissionfromwildfirescomparedtopriorlanduse.MayincreaseordecreaseN2Oemissionsrelativetopriorlandusesubjecttofertilisationregime.Grassland(G)Grasslandremaininggrassland(GG)-Silvopastoralsystems-Livefences,shadetrees,&windbreaks-Improvedpastures-ImprovedpasturemanagementEnhancedCstocksinbiomassofreplantedtreesandgrassesonfarm.Increasesoilcarbonaccumulation.ReducedN2Oemissionsduetoreducedfertilizerapplication.Landconvertedtograssland(LG)-Re-establishmentofnativegrassesondegradedcropland-Conversionofinvasivespecies-dominatedlandtograssland.MaybeassociatedwithlossofCstockinbiomassofpriorvegetationandsoils.MayreduceCH4andN2Oemissionfromwildfirescomparedtopriorlanduse.MayincreaseordecreaseN2Oemissionsrelativetopriorlandusesubjecttofertilisationregime.Wetlands(W)Peatlandsremainingpeatlands(WW)-Rewettingofdrainedpeatlands-RevegetationofpeatlandsEnhancedCstocksinbiomassofexistingornewvegetationandsoils.MayreduceongoingCO2emissionsfromoxidationindrainedanddisturbedwetlandsoils,reduceN2Oemissionsfromfertiliseruseinpreviouslanduse,butmayincreaseshort-termCH4emissionsincaseofrewettingactivities.Floodedlandremainingfloodedland(WW)-Mangroverestoration-OtherwetlandrestorationLandconvertedtofloodedland(LW)-Restorationofformerwetlands-EstablishmentofnewwetlandsLandbeingconvertedforpeatextractionImpliesdrainageofpeatlandandremovalofvegetationwhichisnotalignedwiththeFLRapproachandshouldbeavoided.ReducedCstockinbiomassofexistingvegetation.IncreasedCO2andN2OemissionbutreducedCH4emissions.IPCClandusecategoriesandpotentialGHGimpactsadaptedfromTable1.2ofVolume4ofthe2006IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories.Theroleofforestlandscaperestorationinmitigatingclimatechange5EstimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationCountriesthataresignatoriestotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)aresubjecttoGHGreportingrequirements4andhavesubmittedNDCswhichdescribeproposedeffortsbyeachcountrytoreducenationalemissionsandadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange.5ManyNDCsincludespecificmeasuresrelatedtoFLR,6thustheestimationofGHGemissions,potentialreductionsandremovalsfromFLR-relatedactivitiesisalreadyundertakenthroughnationalprocesses.Also,theactivitiesofnon-stateactors(e.g.,projectsderivingcarboncreditsfromvoluntarycarbonmarkets,privatesectoraction,etc.)shouldbenestedwithinand/orharmonizedwith4UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCC)(2019).UNFCCCProcess:ReportingandreviewundertheConvention.UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange.https://unfccc.int/process#:0c4d2d14-7742-48fd-982e-d52b41b85bb0:f666393f-34f5-45d6-a44e-8d03be236927.5UNFCCC(2019a).NationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs).UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange.Retrievedfromhttps://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions/ndc-registry.6IUCN(2018).IncreasingambitionandactiononNDCsthroughFLR.InfoFLR.Retrievedfromhttps://infoflr.org/what-flr/increasing-ambition-and-ac-tion-ndcs-through-flr.7Asofwriting,thelatestIPCCGuidelineswerereleasedin2006andareavailablehere:https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html,withaWetlandsSupplementreleasedin2013.However,anewversionoftheIPCCGuidelines–the2019Refinementtothe2006IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories–isexpectedtobereleasedinMay2019.Seehereformoreinformation:https://www.ipcc.ch/report/2019-re-finement-to-the-2006-ipcc-guidelines-for-national-greenhouse-gas-inventories/.AllreferencestotheIPCCGuidelinesinthistextshouldbeunder-stoodtorefertothelatestversionoftheGuidelinesavailable.stateGHGmonitoringandreportingsystemsandcontributetoNDCs.Practitionersshouldthereforeworktoleverageandalignefforts.UNFCCCGHGreportingrequirementsdictatethatnationalestimationandreportingofGHGsadheretoIPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories.7CountriesreporttotheUNFCCCthrougharangeofpubliclyavailabledocuments,includingbutnotlimitedto,thoselistedbelowinBox1.ItisrecommendedthatusersobtainthelatestversionsofcountryreportsandNDCsubmissionsasimportantbackgroundinformationandinputtomitigationpotentialestimationprocesses:Theimportanceofaligningwithnationaland/orsubnationalprocesses6CountrysubmissionstotheUNFCCCprovideusefulsourcesofinformationthatshouldbeutilisedandalignedwithFLRERestimationtoenhanceconsistency.Drawingfromthelistbelow,findthemostrecentUNFCCCsubmissionorFRELdocumentfromyourcountryofinterest.Youarelookingfortheemissionandremovalfactorsandactivitydataforthecountry’slatestgreenhousegas(GHG)inventory.ThisinformationmightbeembeddedwithinaNationalCommunicationoraBiennialUpdateReportormightbeavailableasastandaloneNationalInventoryReport.IfyouareworkinginajurisdictionwithaREDD+programme,consulttheForestReferenceEmissionLeveldocumentforthatjurisdictionaswell.Choosethemostup-to-dateinformationavailableforyourspecificregionandFLRactivities.UNFCCCdocumentscanbefoundat:https://unfccc.int/documentsUNFCCCREDD+submissions(forFRELs)areavailableat:https://redd.unfccc.int/submissions.htmlNationalCommunications(NC):NCsaresubmittedbyAnnexIandnon-AnnexIpartiestotheUNFCCCeveryfouryears.TheyprovideinformationonnationalGHGinventoriesaswellasmeasurestakenforclimatechangemitigationandadaptation.NCsincludebothcountry-specificadaptationandmitigationassessments.BiennialUpdateReports(BUR):BURsaresubmittedbynon-AnnexIpartiestotheUNFCCCeverytwoyears.ThesereportscontainupdatesoninformationfromtheNCs,particularlyregardingGHGinventories,mitigationactions,neededresourcesorcapacitytoaddressconstraintsandgapsandsupportreceived.EachBURcontains,ataminimum,theGHGinventoryforacalendaryearnomorethanfouryearspriortothedateofsubmission.NationalInventoryReport(NIR):TheNIRscontaindetailedinformationonthecountry’santhropogenicGHGemissionsbysourcesandremovalbysinks.Thisinformationincludesdescriptionsofthemethodologiesusedintheestimations,thedatasources,emissionfactorsusedanddescriptionsofactivitydata.NIRsarethereforeavaluableresourceforfindingemissionandremovalfactorsinlinewithnationalGHGestimationprocesses,aswellasotherassumptionsusedatthenationallevel.TheNIRwouldusuallybeincludedintheBURortheNCfornon-AnnexIcountries,whileAnnexIcountriessubmitNIRstotheUNFCCCeveryyear.ForestReferenceEmissionLevels(FREL):FRELsserveasabenchmarktoassesscountryperformanceinREDD+activities.Countriesmustsetreferencelevelstoreceiveresults-basedpaymentsforemissionsreductions.FRELsarereportedintonnesofCO2equivalentperyearforthereferenceperiodandarecalculatedusingIPCCguidanceconsistentwiththenationalGHGinventory.FRELsmayormaynotbeasup-to-dateasacountry’slatestNIR.However,FRELsmightbeagoodsourceformorelocallyspecificemissionandremovalfactors.Box1:PubliclyavailablecountrysubmissionstotheUNFCCCthatcansupportERestimationfromFLRTheimportanceofaligningwithnationaland/orsubnationalprocesses7EstimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationItisimportanttobeawareofnationalGHGestimationandreportingprocessesandrecognisetheirimportanceasaresourceforestimatingthemitigationpotentialfromFLRactivities.ItisthereforecrucialtoidentifythenationalinstitutionsinchargeofGHGestimationaswellasthestatusofGHGestimationandreportingsystems,theirscopeandaccessibility.MinistriesofenvironmentandagriculturecommonlyleadGHGestimationforlanduseactivitiesoratleastareinvolvedandcandirectqueriestotheappropriateleadinstitutions.Toensurethatmitigationpotentialestimatesdonotoccurinisolationandeffectivelyleveragenationalprocesses,usersshouldidentifyandengagethenationalinstitutionsandindividualsinchargeofGHGestimation.UsersshouldbepreparedtopresentthescopeoftheFLRactivitiesforwhichtheyintendtoestimatemitigationpotential.SuchpreparationwillprovideimportantcontexttoindividualsworkingonnationalGHGestimationandhelpfocustheconversation,increasingthelikelihoodthatrelevantinformationwillbeprovided.ThiseffortcanalsoleadtobetterintegrationofmitigationpotentialfromFLRintonationalGHGestimationefforts.Inadditiontonationalprogrammesandprocesses,manysub-nationalgovernmentsandlandscapeactorshaveadvancedindevelopingsustainablelanduseandemissionreductionprogrammesthat,ifcoveringsamegeographiesastheproposedFLRactivities,shouldbeidentifiedandengagedtoexploresynergiesregardingmitigationpotentialestimates.Examplesinclude,butarenotlimitedto,statesengagedintheGovernors’ClimateandForestsTaskForce(GCFTaskForce),emissionreductionprogrammes(ERProgrammes)developedundertheWorldBank’sForestCarbonPartnershipFacility(FCPF)andtheInitiativeforSustainableForestLandscapes(ISFL).OncenationalGHGestimationleadsandrelevantsub-nationalandlandscapeprogrammeshavebeenidentifiedandengaged,userscancarryoutaninitialassessmentofthedegreetowhichtheproposedFLRactivitiesarecoveredunderexistingGHGestimations.ThisprocessisoutlinedbelowinFigure2.ThemainobjectiveofthisassessmentistoobtainanearlyindicationofwhetherproposedFLRactivitiesareincludedinthescopeofnationalGHGestimationandreportingandhencewhetherinformationrelevanttomitigationpotentialestimationcanbeobtained.Ifsuchinformationcannotbeobtainedfromnationalandsub-nationalentities,thefinalboxprovidesexamplesofwheresuitabledatamaybefound.Figure2:AssessmentofFLRactivitycoverageinnationalGHGestimationandsub-nationalprogrammesIfscopeofnationalorsubnationaldataislimitedorifdatagapsexist,identifyadditionaldatasourcesTheInfoFLRGlobalEmissionsandRemovalsDatabasewasdevelopedbyIUCNandWinrockInternationalaccordingtoIPCCTier2guidelines.Itisavailableathttps://infoflr.org/what-flr/global-emissions-and-removals-databasesLeverageandalignwithnationaldataforERestimationpurposessubjecttomatchingscope(seeSteps1-4)YesYesLeverageandalignwithsubnationalorlandscapeprogramdataforERestimationpurposessubjecttomatchingscope(seeSteps1-4)IstheFLRactivityincludedinnationalGHGestimationandreportingprocesses?NoNoIstheFLRactivityincludedinapplicablesubnationalorlansdscapeprogramGHGestimationandreportingprocesses?IdentifyadditionaldatasourcesthatmatchthetypeandscopeofproposedFLRactivities:1.Informationfromverifiedemissionreductionprojects2.Locallyapplicable,peer-reviewedscientificpublications3.ApplicableIPCCdefaultfactors,orTier2factorsusingtheInfoFLRGlobalEmissionsandRemovalsdatabase8Figure3:PotentialNDCenhancementopportunitiesTheassessmentalsoservestoidentifyopportunitiestoenhanceandcomplementnationalprogrammesandGHGestimationsystems,landscapeprogrammesandNDCsthroughinclusionofproposedFLRactivitiesorexpansionofGHGestimationscope.Figure3providesanon-exclusiveandnon-prescriptiveexampleofpotentialNDCenhancementopportunitiesthatmaybeidentifiedasaresultofmitigationpotentialestimationprocessesusingthisguidance.Asimilarassessmentmaybecarriedoutforidentifyingopportunitiesforenhancingsub-nationalorlandscapeprogrammeswithFLRactivitiesandassociatedmitigationpotentialestimates.8Verra.(2018).VerifiedCarbonStandard.Verra.Retrievedfromhttps://verra.org/project/vcs-program/.9TheGoldStandard.(2019).Retrievedfromhttps://www.goldstandard.org/.10CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard.(2019).ComplianceOffsetProgram.Retrievedfromhttps://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/offsets/offsets.htm.11Lee,D.L.,Llopis,P.,Waterworth,R.M.,Roberts,G.andPearson,T.R.H.(2018).ApproachestoREDD:nestinglessonslearnedfromcountryexpe-riences(No.125270)(No.125270;pp.1–38).Retrievedfromhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/670171523647847532/Main-report.Usersseekingtocredit,tradeand/orseekpaymentformitigationoutcomesthroughcarbonmarketsareencouragedtoutiliseexistingGHGstandardsforvoluntaryorregulatedemissiontradingmarketsandassociatedmethodologiesincludingbutnotlimitedtotheVerifiedCarbonStandard(VCS),8GoldStandard9andtheCaliforniaCap-and-TradeProgram.10Priortodevelopingprojectsorprogrammes,usersareadvisedtoassessnationalGHGestimationprocessesandmethodsandanyapplicableregulationregardingemissionrightsthatmaylimitprojects’abilitytogenerate,tradeandseekpaymentforemissionreductionsandremovals.11Theimportanceofaligningwithnationaland/orsubnationalprocessesIstheFLRCategoryorActivityincludedintheNDC?HighlighttheFLRpotentialtorelevantpolicymakersforpossibleinclusioninNDCDiscussNDClanguagewithrelevantpolicymakersandshowcasethepotentialtoincludescience-basedtargetsthatmaybebothconditionalornon-conditionalDiscussNDCtargetsandareasallocationsbylandusetypetoidentifysynergiesandpotentialconflictswithidentifiedFLRpotentialDiscussimplicationsofdifferentlandusetargetsandallocationsintermsofGHGmitigationpotentialDoestheNDCincludedclearhectareandGHGtargetsfortheFLRCategoryorActivity?DoestheNDChectareorGHGtargetmatchtheFLRpotentialidentified?NDCisalignedwithrestorationandERopportunityassessmentsYesYesYesNoNoNo9EstimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationThefollowingsectionprovidessimplifiedproceduresforestimatinglong-termnetmitigationpotentialofFLRactivitiesbasedoncommonprinciplesofGHGaccounting,takingintoaccountcarbonstocks(suchascarbonstoredtreebiomassandsoils)andGHGemissions(suchasCO2fromfossilfueluse,N2OfromfertiliserapplicationorCH4andN2Ofrombiomassburning)resultingfromchangesinlanduse.12Todemonstratethepotentiallong-termmitigationbenefitsofFLRactivities,theguidancerecommendscalculatingmitigationpotentialasthedifferenceinlong-termaveragecarbonstocks(Box4,below)13andlifetimeGHGemissionsbetweenFLRandpre-FLRlandusesasasimplifiedbaseline(Box3)acrossanentireportfolioofFLRactivities.12Thescopeofthisguidanceislimitedtolanduse-relatedemissionsincludingcarbonstockchangesinbiomassandsoilorganiccarbon,aswellasCO2,N2OandCH4emissionrelatedtobiomassburning,fertiliserapplicationandwetlandrestoration.Theguidancedoesnotcoveremissionrelatedtofossilfueluse,processingorlivestockemissions.13VCSAssociation.(2011).AFOLUGuidance:ExampleforCalculatingtheLong-TermAverageCarbonStockforARRProjectswithHarvesting.Retrievedfromhttps://verra.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/VCS-Guidance-Harvesting-Examples_0.pdf.Usershouldnotethatthisapproachisintendedtoestimatethelong-termmitigationpotentialatahighlevelandcannotbereadilyappliedtonationalGHGaccountingprocessesorcalculationofemissionreductionsunderREDD+programmesthatseektoquantifyandreportannualimpacts.Giventhelong-termnatureofFLRactivitiesandtheambitiontocontributetopermanentenhancementofcarbonstocks,theapproachisappropriateandwillhelpraiseawarenessoflonger-termmitigationpotentialofFLR.ThecalculationofannualmitigationpotentialfordifferentFLRimplementationscenarioswouldrequireuserstodevelopadditionalmodelsthatshouldbeconsultedwithnationalinstitutionsandexperts.Simplifiedestimationofthelong-termmitigationpotentialofFLR10Box2:DefiningactivitydataandemissionfactorsBox3:LifetimeofFLRactivities(temporalscope)PerIPCCGuidelinesthemostcommonapproachtocalculateemissionsistocombinetheextenttowhichactivitiestakeplace(activitydata)withcoefficientswhichquantifytheemissionorremovalsperunitactivity(emissionfactors):Emissions=activitydataemissionfactorActivitydata:Inthecaseoflanduse,thecommonlyusedactivitydataistheareainhectares(ha)onwhichanactivitytakesplace.ItisthereforecrucialtodefinetheFLRactivityintermofhectares(seeStep1.2).Emissionandremovalfactors:ReferstotheamountofemissionsorremovalsofacertainGHGperhectareoveracertainperiod(typicallyperyear)asaresultofacertainlandusepracticeorlandusechange.Theselectionofreliableemissionandremovalfactorsiscrucialtoensurerobustnessofemissionestimates.GiventheambitionofFLRactivitiestodeliverlong-termandpermanentemissionreductionsandremovals,thisguidancerecommendscalculatingERoveraperiodofatleast30years.FLRactivitiesexpectedtobemaintainedoverashorterlifetimemaynotresultinpermanentemissionreductionsandremovals.Long-termaveragecarbonstocksandlifetimeGHGemissionsmaybecalculatedforlongerperiods.Long-termmitigationpotential=AFLR((CFLR—CPre-FLR)+(GHGPre-FLR—GHGFLR))Long-termmitigationpotential=Potentialemissionreductionsandremovals(tCO2e)AFLR=AreaoftheproposedFLRactivity(ha)CFLR=Long-termaveragecarbonstockperhectareofproposedFLRlanduse(tCO2e/ha)CPre-FLR=Long-termaveragecarbonstockperhectareofpre-FLRlanduse(tCO2e/ha)GHGFLR=GHGEmissionsperhectarefromFLRlanduseoverthelifetimeoftheFLRactivity(tCO2e/ha)GHGPre-FLR=GHGEmissionsperhectarefrompre-FLRlanduseoverthelifetimeoftheFLRactivity(tCO2e/ha)Simplifiedestimationofthelong-termmitigationpotentialofFLR11EstimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationBox4:Calculationoflong-termaveragecarbonstocksCalculationsusedinthisguidancerelyoncomparinglong-termaveragecarbonstocksforeachlandusecategoryratherthancalculatingannualfluxes(gainsandlosses).ForFLRlandusecategoriesthatareexpectedtoproducepermanentrestorationoutcomeswithoutbiomassharvestinginrotationcycles(e.g.assistednaturalregeneration,watershedprotectionanderosioncontrolandmangroverestoration),itisappropriatetousetotalcarbonstockexpectedtobereachedatmaturity(e.g.totalcarbonstockinafullyrestoredmangroveforest).ForFLRlandusecategoriesthatinvolveharvestingorrotationcycles(e.g.plantedforestsandwoodlots,silviculture,certainagroforestrysystems,andimprovedfallow)whichresultinthetotalcarbonstockatmaturitynotbeingmaintained,itisrecommendedtocalculatethelong-termaveragecarbonstockoverseveralindividualharvestorrotationcycles.Tocalculatethelong-termaverage,informationonannualgrowthratesandtotalrotationlengtharerequired.Similarcalculationmayhavetobeperformedforpre-FLRlandusesthatinvolveharvestingandplantationcycles.SeethetablesinWorksheet2andthegraphsbelowforillustrationsoflong-termaveragecarbonstocksinwithout-harvestandwith-harvestscenarios.ThefollowingsectionprovidesaseriesofStepstogatherdataformitigationpotentialestimation(Figure4).ThisincludesacleardefinitionofthescopeofproposedFLRactivity,associatedlandcoverchangesfrompre-FLRtoFLRlanduse,geographicalscope,managementpractices,applicablecarbonpools,GHGgasesandtimeframes.Subsequently,thegeographicareaonwhichFLRactivitiesareproposedtotakeplace,carbonstocksandGHGemissionfactorsaredefinedbeforecalculatingtotalmitigationpotentialforthelifetimeofFLRactivities.CarbonstockaccumulationwithoutharvestingCarbonstockaccumulationwithharvestingCumulativecarbonstock(tCO2)Carbonstockatmaturity(tCO2)Cumulativecarbonstock(tCO2)Long-termaveragecarbonstock(tCO2)123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930CarbonstockaccumulationwithoutharvestingCumulativecarbonstock(tCO2)Carbonstockatmaturity(tCO2)123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930CarbonstockaccumulationwithharvestingCumulativecarbonstock(tCO2)Long-termaveragecarbonstock(tCO2)12Figure4:RecommendedstepstoFLRestimatemitigationpotentialDefinetypeandscopeofFLRactivitiesSTEP1DefineFLRactivitiesandpre-FLRlanduse1.1AsafirststeptheproposedFLRactivitiesforwhichmitigationpotentialistobeestimatedmustbeclearlydefined.Thisisacrucialexercisetoensurethesubsequentstepscanbecarriedouteffectively.EachFLRactivityimpliesatargetedFLRlanduse(e.g.cocoaagroforestry)thatisachievedaftersuccessfulimplementationaswellasapre-FLRlanduse(e.g.cattleranching)thatwaspresentbeforethestartoftheFLRactivity.IfaspecificFLRlanduseisproposedondifferenttypesofpre-FLRlanduses(e.g.cocoaagroforestryonranchlandvs.cocoaagroforestryondegradedforestland),thisconstitutestwodifferenttypesofFLRActivitiesandWorksheet1shouldbepopulatedaccordingly.CleardefinitionofFLRactivityandpre-FLRlandusesisanimportantprecursorforStep1.2wheretheareaofeachFLRactivityisidentified.Eachactivityshouldthenbedescribedindetail,includingthespecificlandmanagementpracticessuchassoilmodifications,fertiliserapplicationsandfiremanagementpractices.Eachofthesechoicesisimportantforthesubsequentselectionofcarbonpoolsandemissionsources.ItisrecommendedtolistseparateFLRactivitiesifdifferentmanagementregimesareexpected,asthesemayleadtodistinctmitigationpotentialestimates(e.g.Simplifiedestimationofthelong-termmitigationpotentialofFLRDefineFLRactivitiesandpre-FLRlanduse1.1–ClearlydefineFLRactivityincludingFLRandpre-FLRlanduse,andassociatedlandmanagementregimes1.2–DefineFLRareabypre-FLRlanduse1.3–DefinetemporalscopeSTEP1STEP2DeterminechangesincarbonstocksandGHGemissions2.1–SelectcarbonpoolsandGHGemissionssources2.2–SelectcarbonstockvaluesandGHGemissionsfactors2.3–DeterminecarbonpoolandemissionsourcesignificancePerformmitigationpotentialcalculations3.1–InsertinformationfromSteps1&2inWorksheet4STEP313Estimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationmixedspeciesplantationsvs.singlespeciesplantations).GenericdefinitionsandgroupingofFLRactivities(e.g.usingasingleFLRactivityforarangeofreforestationactivities)mayreducetheaccuracyofmitigationpotentialestimatesandmaypresentachallengetoselectingappropriatecarbonpoolsandrepresentativeemissionandremovalfactorsinStep2.Finally,properlyidentifyingtheecologicalzoneoftheFLRactivitywillbeimportantforchoosingemissionandremovalfactorsinStep2.Whilethefirstchoiceforthesefactorsshouldbetoalignwiththoseusedinnationalandsub-nationalGHGaccounting,therewilllikelybegapsintheavailabledata.Inthatcase,defaultfactorsshouldbechosenfromregionaland/orglobaldatasuchastheIPCCGuidelines(seeStep2.2andFigure2formoreinformation).Thesedefaultfactorsarehighlydependentonclimateandsoiltypes.ForreferencetoIPCCGuidelines,itishelpfultocategoriseFLRactivitiesaccordingtothecorrespondingIPCCland-usecategoryinReferenceTable1,whichalsoprovidesanideaofthepotentialimpactofdifferentland-useactivitiesintermsofmitigationpotential.Worksheet1:DefinetheFLRactivities,pre-FLRlanduseandcorrespondingland-usetransitioncategories1.a.FLRactivityreferencenumber1.b.FLRactivityDetailedFLRactivitydescription1.c.Pre-FLRlanduse(SeeReferenceTable1-IPCCstartingland-usecategory)1.d.FLRlanduse(IPCCfinalland-usecategory)IPCClandusesub-category(IPCCland-usetransition)1.e.Ecologicalzone1ConversionofdegradedpasturetococoaagroforestryEstablishmulti-strataagroforestrysystemwithcocoa,timberandnon-timbershadetreesforcommercialcocoaproductionondegradedpastureDegradedpasture(G–Grassland)Cocoaagroforestry(F–ForestLand)GF(GrasslandconvertedtoForestLand)Tropicalmoistdeciduousforest2RestorationofdegradedmangroveMixedspeciesrestorationofdegradedmangrovethroughassistednaturalregenerationDegradedwetland(W-Wetland)Multi-specieswetland(W)WW(WetlandremainingWetland)Tropicalmoistdeciduousforest3EstablishmentoftreesondegradedcroplandEstablishmentoftreebordersandwindbreaksoncommercialmonoculture.InvolvesmanualplantingoftreeswithtargetedfertilisationDegradedcropland(C-Cropland)Cropland10%treecover(C)CC(CroplandremainingCropland)Subtropicalhumidforest4...14Worksheet1.f.:DefineFLRareabypre-FLRlanduseDefineFLRareabypre-FLRlanduseDefinetemporalscope1.21.3DefiningthetotalareabyFLRactivityandpre-FLRlanduseillustratedbyWorksheet1.f.isanimportantsteptoclearlyspecifywhereeachland-usetransitionisexpectedtooccurandavoiddouble-countingofhectareareas.Asanexample,thetotalareaofproposedagroforestryactivitiesmustbeclearlydividedbetweenareaswhereagroforestryistobeestablishedoncroplandvs.ranchland.ThesumofallhectaresmustnotexceedthetotalFLRarea.TheareadatadefinedinWorksheet1.f.willbeusedformitigationpotentialcalculationsshowcasedinWorksheet4.1.f.HectareareasbyFLR/pre-FLRlanduse1.c.Pre-FLRlanduse1.d.FLRlanduse(fromWorksheet1)DegradedpastureDegradedwetlandDegradedcropland...Cocoaagroforestry15,000––Multi-specieswetland–22,000–Cropland10%treecover––45,000...ThetemporalscopeoftheproposedFLRactivity,includingpotentialactivitystartandactivitylifetime(seeBox3)shouldbedeterminedasabasisforcalculatinglong-termcarbonstocksandcalculatingmitigationscenariosinStep3.Thisshouldincludethedefinitionofharvestingcyclesincommercialtreeplantations(periodicharvestingandreplantingregimes)(seeBox4forfurtherdetailonconsideringharvestperiods).DefinitionoftheexpectedlifetimeofFLRactivitiesiscrucial,asitmaysignificantlyimpactitsabilitytodeliverlong-termmitigationoutcomes.Simplifiedestimationofthelong-termmitigationpotentialofFLR15EstimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationDeterminechangesincarbonstocksandGHGemissionsSTEP2SelectcarbonpoolsandGHGemissionsources2.1AcorecomponentofthemitigationpotentialestimationprocessistheselectionofapplicablecarbonpoolsandsourcesofGHGemissions.ReferenceTable2providesanoverviewofcarbonpoolsandGHGemissionsources.Asafirststep,usersmustdeterminewhetherthemanagementregimesofFLRandpre-FLRlandusesdefinedinStep1arelikelytoleadtochangesincarbonstocksandGHGemissions(seeexamplesinReferenceTable1)foreachcarbonpool.Onthisbasis,usersshouldmakeaninitialdecisiononwhethertoincluderespectivecarbonpoolsandsourcesforeachFLRactivityfromWorksheet1.Subsequently,itisrecommendedtoobtaininformationon,andalignwith,thecarbonpoolsandGHGemissionsourcesselectedfornationalGHGestimation.UsersshoulddiscussselectionofcarbonpoolandGHGemissionswithrelevantexperts.IfsignificantcarbonpoolsorGHGemissionsourceshavebeenexcludedfromnationalGHGestimation,usersmaydiscussthepossibleinclusionwithnationalexperts.UnderUNFCCCreportingrequirements,countriesshouldprogressivelyexpandthenumberofpoolsandsourcesreportedovertimetoeventuallyincludeallthatarerelevant.TheFLRestimationprocesscanhelptoidentifythesemissingcategories.ReferenceTable2:DescriptionofcarbonpoolsandgreenhousegasemissionsCarbonpoolsDescription,subjecttonationalcircumstancesandmodificationsAbove-groundbiomassAlllivingbiomassabovethesoilisusuallyexpressedintonnesofdrymatter(t.d.m).Thisincludesplantandtreestems,livingstumps,branches,bark,seedsandfoliage.Asitisadominantcarbonpoolinmostforestsystems,itisalmostalwaysincludedincarbonaccountinginFLR.Valuesforabove-groundandbelow-groundbiomasscanbeestimatedthroughdirectmeasurement14orcanbefoundinthepublishedandunpublishedliterature.Below-groundbiomassAlllivingplantroots,usuallyexcludingfinerootsoflessthan2mmindiameter.Thiscanbeestimatedwithoutdirectmeasurementusingpublished“root-to-shoot”ratios,availableintheIPCCGuidelines,betweenabove-groundandbelow-groundbiomass.Inotherwords,ifabove-groundbiomassisknown,afactorcanbeappliedtoestimatebelow-groundbiomass.15DeadwoodAllnon-livingwoodybiomassnotcountedaslitter,standing,lyingontheforestfloororinthesoil.Includesdeadstumps,fallenbranchesanddeadrootslargerthanacertaindiameter(oftendefinedas10cm).Inyoungecosystems<30years,biomassindeadwoodaregenerallynotconsideredsignificant.16Wheredirectmeasurementisoverlyburdensomeandthereisadesiretoincludedeadwoodbiomass,itcanbeestimatedwithoutdirectmeasurementapplyingpublishedfactorsthatdescribetherelationshipbetweenabove-groundandbelow-groundbiomass,availableintheIPCCGuidelines.14Methodstoquantifycarbonstocksinterrestrialbiomassareavailablefrommanysources,includingWalker,S.M.,Pearson,T.R.H.,Casarim,F.M.,Harris,N.,Petrova,S.,Grais,A.etal.(2012).StandardOperatingProceduresforTerrestrialCarbonMeasurementManual:Version2018.RetrievedMarch13,2019,fromhttps://www.winrock.org/document/standard-operating-procedures-for-terrestrial-carbon-measurement-manual/.15Pearson,T.,Harris,N.,Shoch,D.andBrown,S.(2016).‘Estimationofforestcarbonstocks’.InGOFC-GOLD,Asourcebookofmethodsandproceduresformonitoringandreportinganthropogenicgreenhousegasemissionsandremovalsassociatedwithdeforestation,gainsandlossesofcarbonstocksinforestsremainingforestsandforestation(GOFC-GOLDReportversionCOP22-1).Retrieved17September2018fromhttp://www.gofcgold.wur.nl/redd/sourcebook/GOFC-GOLD_Sourcebook.pdf.16Pearson,T.,Walker,S.andBrown,S.(2005).SourcebookforLandUse,Land-UseChangeandForestryProjects.BioCFandWinrockInternational16ReferenceTable2:Descriptionofcarbonpoolsandgreenhousegasemissions(continuation)LitterAllnon-livingbiomasslessthanacertaindiameter(oftendefinedas10cm),lyingdeadanddecayingabovethemineralororganicsoil.Thisincludesfallenleavesandsmallbranches,aswellasthefumicandhumiclayersoftheforestfloor.Finerootslessthan2mmindiameterareusuallycountedaslitterwhentheycannotbedistinguishedfromothermatterintheselayers.Inyoungecosystems<30years,biomassontheflooraregenerallynotconsideredsignificant.17Wheredirectmeasurementisoverlyburdensomeandthereisadesiretoincludelitterbiomass,itcanbeestimatedwithoutdirectmeasurementapplyingpublishedfactorsthatdescribetherelationshipbetweenabove-groundandbelow-groundbiomass,availableintheIPCCGuidelines.SoilorganiccarbonIncludestheorganiccarboninmineralandorganicsoilstoacountry-defineddepth,appliedconsistentlythroughouttheestimationprocess.Finerootslessthan2mmindiameterareusuallyincludedinsoilorganiccarbonatthedefineddepth.GreenhousegasesDescriptionofemissionsourcesCarbondioxide(CO2)PlantsabsorbCO2fromtheatmosphereandstoresomeofthiscarbonintheirtissueastheygrow.Someofthecarbonplantsabsorbisalsotransferredtoandstoredinsoils.Dependingonlandmanagementpractices,thecarbonstoredinplantsandsoilsmaybereleasedbackintotheatmosphereasCO2(e.g.throughbiomassburninganddecay).CO2absorptionandreleasebyplantsisalreadyconsideredincarbonstockchanges(seecarbonpoolsabove).Anexceptionisthecaseoflossesinthesoilcarbonpoolindrainedand/ordegradedwetlands.Insteadofestimatingcarbonstockchanges,itisrecommendedtouseanemissionfactorforannualCO2emissionsoccurringindrainedand/ordegradedwetlandsasthepre-FLRlanduse.IntheFLRlanduse(e.g.restoredwetland),carbonstockaccumulationinthesoilcarbonpoolcanbeconsideredbutislikelyinsignificantintheshort-tomedium-term.Methane(CH4)WildfiresandotherforestdisturbancecanleadtoasignificantemissionofCH4whichcanbeincludedinGHGestimations.CH4willlikelyalsobeasignificantsourceofemissionsinthecaseofrewettingsoils,suchasre-establishingmangroves,duetoanaerobicdecompositionoforganicmatter.LivestockisanotherconsiderablesourceofCH4thatshouldbetakenintoaccountifanFLRactivityleadstotheintroductionoflivestock(e.g.conversionofcroplandtosilvopastoralsystems)orincreaseinthenumberofanimalsperhectare.Nitrousoxide(N2O)N2Oandothernitrogenoxides(NOX)arecommonlyreleasedintheland-usesectorfromsoilsduetotheapplicationofnitrogenfertilisersandthedrainageofwetforestsoils.ForestmanagementpracticessuchasclearcuttingandthinningmayalsoincreaseN2Oemissions.CarbonpooldescriptionsadaptedfromTable3.1.2ofthe2006IPCCGoodPracticeGuidanceforLULUCFandVolume4,Chapter12ofthe2006IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories.GreenhousegasemissionsourcesadaptedfromtheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencywebsiteandthe2006IPCCGoodPracticeGuidanceforLULUCF.17Pearson,T.etal.(2005).Box5providesanoverviewofkeyprinciplesformitigationestimation.Takentogether,theseprinciplesaimtoprovideanaccuratepictureofthescaleofmitigationexpectedwithoutoverstatingbenefitsorexpendingundueeffortintheestimationprocess.InaccordancewiththeIPCCprincipleofcompleteness,itisconsideredbestpracticetoincludecarbonpoolsandemissionsourcesifsignificantchangesareexpectedasaresultoftheFLRlanduserelativetothepre-FLRlanduse(e.g.therewouldbeasignificantchangeinabovegroundandbelowgroundbiomassduetotheafforestationofcropland).WherecarbonpoolandGHGemissionsourcesignificanceisnotimmediatelyobvious,usersmustfirstidentifycarbonstockandGHGemissiondataasdescribed(inStep2.2)anddeterminesignificancerelativetototalstocksandemissions(Step2.3).FinalcarbonpoolandGHGemissionsourceselectionmaythereforebeaniterativeprocess.Usersshouldapplytheconservativenessprinciplethroughouttheprocess.WheredeterminationofcarbonstocksorGHGemissionswouldbeassociatedwithunreasonableeffort,carbonpoolsandGHGemissionsourcesmaybeexcludedsubjecttotheapplicationoftheconservativenessprinciple.Simplifiedestimationofthelong-termmitigationpotentialofFLR17EstimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationBox5:KeyprinciplesformitigationestimationCompletenessTomeettheprincipleofcompleteness,allrelevantsourcesandsinksandallrelevantgasesshouldbeconsideredintheestimationprocess,coveringthefullgeographicareawhereFLRactivitiesareimplemented.Sources,sinksandgasesmaybeexcludedsubjecttotheapplicationoftheSignificanceandConservativenessprinciples.SignificanceSignificanceisthelevelofcontributionofasource,sinkorgastothetotalchangeinemissionsorremovals(e.g.anincreaseinCH4mightcontribute2%ofthetotalemissionincreaseforacertainproject).Existingstandardsapplydifferentsignificancethresholdstodeterminewhetheracertainsource,sinkorgasmaybeexcluded.Forexample,theFCPFCarbonFundMethodologicalFrameworkspecifiesthatcarbonpoolsandgasesmaybeexcludediftheyarecollectivelyestimatedtocontributetolessthan10%oftotalforest-relatedemissions,whereastheCleanDevelopmentMechanismappliesathresholdof5%.18ConservativenessTheprincipleofconservativenessspecifiesthatwhenestimatinggreenhousegasemissionsreductionsandremovals,theriskofoverestimationofemissionreductionsandremovalsshouldbeminimised.Itisconsideredconservativeto(i)overestimatecarbonstocksorunderestimateGHGemissionsinthepre-FLRlanduseor(ii)underestimatecarbonstocksoroverestimateGHGemissionsintheFLRactivity.UncertaintyGiventhecomplexitiesofnaturalecosystems,theestimationofERcanbeassociatedwithsignificantdegreesofuncertainty.Uncertaintyshouldbereducedwhereverpossiblethroughselectionofreliabledataandestimationapproaches.IPCCGuidelinesprovidemethodsforanalyzinguncertainty.18FCPF.(2016).FCPFCarbonFundMethodologicalFramework(RevisedFinal).Retrieved20January2019,fromhttps://www.forestcarbon-partnership.org/sites/fcp/files/2016/July/FCPF%20Carbon%20Fund%20Methodological%20Framework%20revised%202016.pdf;CDM-Exec-utiveBoard.(2007).ToolfortestingsignificanceofGHGemissionsinA/RCDMprojectactivities(Version01)(No.EB31annex16)(No.EB31annex16).Retrievedfromhttps://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/ARmethodologies/tools/ar-am-tool-04-v1.pdf.18SelectcarbonstockvaluesandGHGemissionfactors2.2ERestimationsunderthisguidancerequireuserstodeterminethefollowingforboththeFLRactivityandthepre-FLRlanduse:Long-termaveragecarbonstockacrossallselectpoolsforeachlandusecategory(Worksheet3,column3.g.)–pleaseseeBox4andWorksheet2,part1forguidanceoncalculatinglong-termaveragesforeachselectedcarbonpoolLifetimeGHGemissionsfromeachlandusecategory(Worksheet3,column3.k.)–calculatedastheaverageannualGHGemissionsmultipliedbythelifetimeoftheFLRactivity.PleaseseeWorksheet2,part2forguidanceoncalculatinglifetimeGHGemissionsforeachgas.Thedeterminationofbothlong-termaveragecarbonstocksandlifetimeGHGemissionsmayrequireseparatecalculations,takingintoaccountannualcarbonstockchangesandGHGemissionsoverthelifetimeofFLRactivities.AccuracyinmitigationbenefitestimationforFLRactivitiesreliesonhowwelltheselectedcarbonstocks19Availableathttps://infoflr.org/what-flr/global-emissions-and-removals-databases.Moreinformationonthisdatabase,includingvaluesforuncertain-tyisavailableinBernal,B.,Murray,L.T.andPearson,T.R.(2018).Globalcarbondioxideremovalratesfromforestlandscaperestorationactivities.CarbonBalanceandManagement13:22.https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13021-018-0110-820Plantedforestsandwoodlots,naturalregeneration,agroforestryandmangroverestorationforFLRactivitiesreflecttheclimate,landscapecharacteristics,treespeciesandmanagementpracticesoftheFLRactivityofinterest.RemovalfactorsdescribetherateatwhichdifferenttypesofFLRremoveCO2fromtheatmosphere.Emissionsfactors,meanwhile,refertotheamountofagasreleasedintotheatmosphereduetoanFLRactivity.InformationonthesefactorsshouldideallybeattainedthroughconversationswithnationalGHGaccountantsand/orlandscapeprogrammeadministratorsandfromcountrysubmissionstotheUNFCCC(seeBox1).Wheredatagapsexist,itisbestpracticetorelyonvaluesfromregionalorcountry-specificscientificandpeer-reviewedliterature.TheGlobalFLRCO2RemovalsDatabase19providesregionallyspecificdefaultremovalfactorsforfourFLRactivitycategories20basedonabroadreviewoftreegrowthstudies.Finally,whenmorespecificdataisnotavailable,estimationsmaybemadeusingapplicabledefaultfactors,recognisingthatthesemaynotmatchthedesiredgranularityofFLRactivitiespreviouslydefined.Defaultfactorsforland-usetransitionsmaybefoundinthelatestIPCCGuidelines.12Simplifiedestimationofthelong-termmitigationpotentialofFLR19EstimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationWorksheet2,part1:Samplecalculationoflong-termaveragecarbonstocks,withandwithoutharvestcycles2121VCSAssociation.(2011).CarbonstockwithoutharvestcycleCarbonstockwith10-yearharvestrotationYearCumulativecarbonstock(tCO2)YearCumulativecarbonstock(tCO2)16.0016.00213.00213.00319.00319.00425.00425.00532.00532.00642.00642.00754.00754.00862.00862.00978.00978.001090.001090.0011102.0011-12116.00126.0013122.001313.0014130.001419.0015140.001525.0016148.001632.0017159.001742.0018164.001854.0019172.001962.0020180.002078.0021192.002190.0022200.8222-23208.00236.0024219.002413.0025225.002519.0026236.002625.0027241.002732.0028242.002842.0029242.502954.0030242.503062.00Long-termaveragecarbonstock(tCO2)Carbonstockatmaturity242.50Long-termaveragecarbonstock(tCO2)Averageofyears1-30:36.5020Worksheet2,part2:Samplecalculationoflifetimegreenhousegasemissions,usingannualGHGemissionsfactorLifetimeGHGEmissionsAnnualGHGemissions(tCO2e/ha/yr)(e.g.methane(CH4))2.23YearCumulativeGHGemissions(tCO2e)12.2324.4636.6948.92511.15613.38715.61817.84920.071022.301124.531226.761328.991431.221533.451635.681737.911840.141942.372044.602146.832249.062351.292453.522555.752657.982760.212862.442964.673066.90LifetimeGHGemissions(tCO2e)66.90Simplifiedestimationofthelong-termmitigationpotentialofFLR21EstimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestorationOncecalculated,long-termaveragecarbonstocksbypoolandlifetimeGHGemissionsbysourceareinsertedinWorksheet3.WhenselectingcarbonstockvaluesandGHGemissionfactorsforcalculations,applicableunitsmustbecarefullyconsidered.Giventheuseofavarietyofunitsincountry22Ifgrossvaluescannotbefound,columns4.b.and4.e.inWorksheet4needtobesettozero(0).23GreenhouseGasProtocol.(2016).GlobalWarmingPotentialValues.Retrievedfromhttps://www.ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/ghgp/Glob-al-Warming-Potential-Values%20%28Feb%2016%202016%29_1.pdf.submissions,emissionreductionprogrammes,projectsandscientificliterature,itmayberequiredtoconvertvaluestotheunitsrequiredinWorksheet3.Thefollowingquestionsshouldbeconsideredintheprocessofdeterminingvaluesfromselectedinformationsources:ࡣࡣArethecarbonstocksselectedrepresentativeoftheexpectedmanagementregimeincludingharvestingcycles(e.g.aforestryplantationmaycontainacertaincarbonstockatitspeakbuttheaveragecarbonstoredovereachharvestingcyclewillbeless–seeBox4)?ࡣࡣIstheemissionfactorforaland-usecategoryexpressedasaperhectarevalue?Ifnot,canaperhectarevaluebedeterminedbasedonthetotalareainquestion?Ifnot,aperhectarevaluemustbeidentifiedfromothersourcesperFigure2.ࡣࡣIstheemissionfactoragrossornetvalue?Itispreferabletodeterminegrossvaluesforeachland-usecategory.22ࡣࡣIsthecarbonstockexpressedinmetrictonnes(t)?Ifnot,itmustbeconvertedtotonnes.ࡣࡣArebiomassvaluesprovidedintonnesofdrymatter(t.d.m.)?Ifso,firstconverttotonnesofcarbon(tC=t.d.m0.47)andthentotCO2multiplyingthetCvalueby3.67(or44/12).ࡣࡣIsthecarbonstockexpressedastCortCO2?IfexpressedastCitmustbeconvertedtotCO2,multiplyingthetCvalueby3.67(or44/12).ࡣࡣAreCH4andN2OemissionsexpressedastonnesofCO2equivalent(tCO2e)?Ifnot,CH4andN2OvaluemustbeconvertedtotCO2eusingwarmingpotentialconversionfactors.23ࡣࡣAreGHGemissionsexpressedasanaverageannualvalue(tCO2e/yr)?Ifnot,anaverageannualvaluemustbecalculatedandmultipliedbythelifetimeoftheFLRactivitytodeterminelifetimeemissions(Worksheet2,part2).22Worksheet3:Long-termaveragecarbonstocksandlifetimeGHGemissionsbyland-usecategoryLong-termaveragecarbonstocksbypool(tCO2/ha)Lifetimeemissionsbygas(tCO2e/ha)1.b.FLRlanduse1.e.Ecologicalzone3.a.Sourcesandfigures3.b.Above-groundbiomass3.c.Below-groundbiomass3.d.Deadwood3.e.Litter3.f.Soilorganiccarbon3.g.=3.b.+3.c.+3.d.+3.e.Totalcarbonstock3.h.CO2(seenote)3.i.CH43.j.N2O3.k.=3.h.+3.i.+3.j.TotalLifetimeGHGemissionsCocoaagroforestryTropicalmoistdeciduousforest3.b.Valueof17.04tCabove-groundbiomassformaturecocoastanddrawnfromlocalstudyofagroforestry-typementionedincountryNDC.ConvertedtotCO2asCO2=C(44/12)3.c.Below-groundbiomassforagroforestrysystemsisexcludedincountry’snationalinventoryreport.However,itisincludedhereafterdiscussionwithnationalGHGaccountantsduetoexpectedsignificanceofthepool.Calculatedfrom3.b.basedonroot-to-shootratioof0.20forcocoa.3.j.Valueof0.0017tN2O/ha/yrdrawnfromscientificstudyofsimilaragroforestrysystemandecologicalzone.Multipliedby265GWPtogettCO2eandmultipliedby30years.62.4712.49---74.96--13.8013.80Multi-specieswetlandTropicalmoistdeciduousforestTier1valuesfortropicalmangrovesdrawfromIPCCTier1valuesfortropicalmangrovesdrawfromIPCC2013WetlandsSupplement,chapter4,conservativelyselected“dry”vs.“wet”fortropicalmoistzone.3.b.92tonnesdrymatter/haforTropicalDrymangroves.ConvertedtotCwithdefaultfactorof0.47.ThenconvertedtotCO2=C(44/12)3.cCalculatedfrom3.bwitharoot-to-shootratioof0.29inTropicaldrymangroves.3.d.Tier1valueof10.7tC/hadeadwoodofmaturemangrovestands,convertedastCO2=C(44/12)3.e.Litterexcludedforinsignificance3.f.Soilorganiccarbonexcludedforconservativeness;assumedtobesimilartopre-FLRlevels3.iRewettingemissionfactorforCH4inTidalbrackishmangrove,0.1937tCH4/ha/yr.ConvertedtotCO2ewith25GWPandmultipliedby30years.158.5545.9839.23--243.76-145.28-145.28Cropland10%treecoverSubtropicalhumidforestConservativelyexcludingcarbonstockincreasefromnon-treebiomassincrease.3.b.Above-groundbiomassfor10%treecoverdrawnfromlocalstudyoftreesoncropland,usedinnationalGHGaccounting.Value=5.00tC/ha.ConvertedtotCO2=C(44/12)3.c.Calculatedfrom3.b.withasubtropicalhumidforestroot-to-shootratioof0.20,basedonTier1valueofIPCC2006Guidelines,forSubtropicalhumidforestecologicalzone.3.j.N2Oemissionsfrommanagementassumedtobethesameaspre-FLRuse.Aftercalculationoffertiliser-basedN2Oemissions,significanceislessthan1%andthereforeexcluded.18.333.67---22.00----Simplifiedestimationofthelong-termmitigationpotentialofFLR23Estimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestoration1.d.Pre-FLRlanduseDegradedpastureTropicalmoistdeciduousforest3.b.Above-groundbiomassvalueof12.44tonnesd.m./habasedonlocalstudyofdegradedgrassland.ConvertedtotCwithdefaultfactorof0.47,thenconvertedastCO2=C(44/12)3.c.Below-groundbiomasscalculatedfrom3.b.usingroot-to-shootratioof1.8,empirically-derivedfromsamelocalstudy.3.h.-j.excludedduetoinsignificanceandforconservativeness21.4338.57---60.00----DegradedwetlandTropicalmoistdeciduousforestTier1valuesbasedonIPCC2013Wetlandssupplement3.b.Valueof92tonnesd.m./haforTropicaldrymangroves,multipliedbya0.70conversionfactorfordegradation.ConvertedtotCwithdefaultfactorof0.47,thenconvertedastCO2=C(44/12)3.c.Calculatedbasedon3.b.witharoot-to-shootratioof0.293.d.Deadwoodexcludedduetoassumptionofdegradationduetofuelwoodcollection.3.h.AnnualemissionfactorforCO2associatedwithsoildrainageof7.9tC/ha/yr.ConvertedtotCO2=C(44/12)andmultipliedby30years.110.9832.18---143.17869.00--869.00DegradedcroplandSubtropicalhumidforest3.b.Above-groundbiomassvalueof2.34tC/haforcroplandwithouttreecover,basedonlocalstudyusedinnationalGHGaccounting.ConvertedtotCO2=C(44/12).3.h-3.jExcludedduetosignificance/conservativeness8.58----8.58----LifetimeemissionsofCO2shouldonlybeseparatelyaccountedforinthecaseofsoiloxidationindrainedwetlands,sinceotherwiseCO2changeisaccountedforinthecarbonpools.SeeReferenceTable2formoreinformation.Worksheet3:Long-termaveragecarbonstocksandlifetimeGHGemissionsbyland-usecategory(continuation)24DeterminecarbonpoolsandGHGemissionsourcesignificance2.3Avarietyofthresholdshavebeenappliedatnational,sub-nationalandprojectleveltodeterminesignificanceofcarbonpoolsandemissionsources.Aswithprevioussteps,itisrecommendedthatusersidentifyapproachesandthresholdsappliedatthenationallevelasastartingpoint.SeeBox5formoreinformationonchoosingandapplyingasignificancethreshold.Usershouldidentifyasignificancethresholdaccordingtotheintendeduseofestimationresultatthebeginningoftheestimationprocessandstickwiththeidentifiedthresholdthroughouttheestimationprocess.Inotherwords,usersshouldnotraiseorlowerthesignificancethresholdpartwaythroughtheestimationprocessorapplydifferentthresholdfordifferentFLRactivities.AsmentionedinStep2.1,determiningthesignificanceofcarbonpoolsandGHGemissionsourcesmaybeaniterativeprocess.TheusermayneedtoperformcalculationsinWorksheet3foracertainselectionofpoolsandsourcesinordertodeterminethepercentageofagivenpoolorsourcerelativetothetotalacrossallpoolsandsources.Atthatpoint,adecisioncanbetakenwithregardstoinclusionorexclusionofagivenpoolorsourcefromsubsequentcalculations.Inlinewiththeconservativenessprinciple(seeBox5),usersshouldnotpurposefullyexcludecarbonpoolsthatareexpectedtodecrease(andGHGemissionsourcesthatarelikelytoincrease)asaresultoftheFLRlanduserelativetothepre-FLRlanduseassuchexclusionwouldleadtoanoverestimationofthemitigationpotentialoftheFLRactivity.CalculatemitigationpotentialSTEP3EstimatetothetotalmitigationpotentialacrossallFLRactivitiesandimplementationareasidentified,Worksheet4mustbepopulatedwithdatageneratedinWorksheets1,2and3.Thisincludes:FLRactivityandpre-FLRlandusecombinationsfromWorksheet1HectarefiguresforeachFLRactivityandpre-FLRlandusecombinationbasedonWorksheet1.f.Lifetime(inyears)ofeachFLRactivityLong-termaveragecarbonstocksandlifetimeGHGemissionsforeachFLRactivityandpre-FLRlandusedeterminedinWorksheets2and31324Simplifiedestimationofthelong-termmitigationpotentialofFLR25Estimatingthemitigationpotentialofforestlandscaperestoration(t)1.f.4.a.(from3.g.)4.b.(from3.g.)4.c.=4.a.-4.b.4.d.(from3.k.)4.e.(from3.k.)4.f.=4.e.-4.d.4.g.=4.c.+4.f.4.h.=4.g.1.f.4.i.=4.h./(t)1.a.FLRactivitycategory#1.b.FLRactivityTimeperiod(years)HectarepotentialCarbonstocksperFLRlanduse(tCO2/ha)Carbonstocksperpre-FLRlanduse(tCO2/ha)Netcarbonstockchan-gefromFLRActivity(tCO2/ha)EmissionsperFLRlanduse(tCO2e/ha)Emissionsperpre-FLRlanduse(tCO2e/ha)Netemis-sionchangefromFLRActivity(tCO2e/ha)Potentialnetmitiga-tionfromFLRactivityfromFLRactivity(tCO2e/ha)Totalpoten-tialnetmiti-gationfromFLRactivity(tCO2e)Totalpo-tentialnetmitigationfromFLRactivityperyear(tCO2e/yr)1Conversionofdegradedpasturetococoaagroforestry3015,00074.9660.0014.9613.80-(13.80)1.1617,4005802Restorationofdegradedmangrove3022,000243.76143.17100.59145.28869.00723.72824.3118,134,766604,4923Establishmentoftreesoncropland3045,00022.008.5813.42---13.42603,90020,130Total82,00018,756,066625,202Worksheet4:Mitigationpotentialcalculations26NotethattheresultinWorksheet4showsthetotalmitigationpotentialfortheentireportfolioofFLRactivitiesifimplementedovertheentireareaandmaintainedovertheentirelifetime(seeBox3).Whilethecalculationhelpstodemonstratethetotalmitigationpotentialtopolicymakersandotherstakeholders,itisimportanttorememberthatthesemitigationresultsarenotachievedimmediatelybutaccrueovertime.CarbonstocksaccumulateinthelandscapeincrementallyandunevenlyovertimeasFLRactivitiesareimplemented.Toassessthelong-termmitigationpotentialofshort-termimplementationscenarios(e.g.mangroverestorationinitiallyononly5,000haasopposedtothetotalrestorationpotentialof22,000ha),hectarefigurescanbeadjusted.Thecalculationofmitigationpotentialtobeachievedbyagivendate(e.g.2030)wouldrequireboththedefinitionofannualimplementationtargets(annualhectaresforeachFLRactivity)andthecalculationofannualcarbonstockchangesandGHGemissions.Thismayrequirethedevelopmentofmoresophisticatedmodelsandshouldbedevelopedinconsultationwithnationalinstitutionsandexperts.Simplifiedestimationofthelong-termmitigationpotentialofFLRINTERNATIONALUNIONFORCONSERVATIONOFNATUREWORLDHEADQUARTERSRueMauverney281196Gland,SwitzerlandTel+41229990000Fax+41229990002www.iucn.org