ClimateChangeChallenge-Decarbonization应对气候变化–减碳TransportationResearchBoardWelcome美国交通运输研究会欢迎致辞NeilPedersenTRBExecutiveDirector美国交通运输研究会执行主席August16,2022WelcomefromTRBintheUnitedStates!美国交通运输研究会欢迎大家！•TheTransportationResearchBoard(TRB)ispleasedtobeaco-sponsoroftheClimateChangeChallenges(CCC)InternationalTransportWebinars•美国交通运输研究会（TRB）很高兴成为应对气候变化（CCC）国际交通研讨会的共同主办单位•ThankyoutoMr.MengyongWeng,Mr.WenjieLiu,Ms.NinaGuan,andtheircolleaguesatCHTSforworkingwithTRBonthisinformativeseriesofwebinars•感谢翁孟勇理事长，刘文杰秘书长，管妮娜主任，及中国公路学会的各位同事跟TRB一道筹办这一系列内容丰富的研讨会•ThankyoutoMr.ChristosXenophontosandMs.CarolineAlmérasfortheirleadershipfromTRBandtoDr.DanielSperlingforbeingTRB’skeynotespeaker.•感谢ChristosXenophontos先生，CarolineAlméras女士代表TRB参与研讨会的组织，也感谢DanielSperling博士代表TRB作主旨报告。2InternationalKnowledgeSharing共享国际智慧•CHTS-TRBMemorandumofUnderstanding•中国公路学会-美国交通运输研究会签署合作谅解备忘录•Speakersateachother’sconferencesoncurrentsubjects•为双方会议推荐专家，共讨当下议题•MobilityManagementMeeting(MMM)webinars交通出行服务（MMM）国际论坛•CHTSisonTRB’sInternationalCoordinationCouncil•中国公路学会作为TRB国际协调理事会的一份子•Identificationanddiscussionofcriticalissuestohelpinformresearchandpolicyagendas•共同确定并讨论为研究和政策制定提供咨询的关键问题•Sharingoflatestresearchanddeploymentresults共享最新研究和实践成果•Encouragementofparticipationineachother’sevents更积极地参与彼此活动•Knowledgesharinginanobjectiveprofessionalsetting专业的、客观的知识共享3TheClimateChangeChallenge气候变化•Althoughitvariesbynation,transportationcontributesabout¼ofanthropogenicgreenhousegasemissionsworldwide.•尽管各国的情况有所不同，但交通造成的温室气体排放约占全球人为温室气体排放的¼。•Withoutchangingourcurrenttrendsandpolicies,baselineemissionsfromtransportationareprojectedtoresultina60-75%increaseinCO2emissionsby2050from2020levels(variesbysourceofinformation).•在不改变我们目前的趋势和政策的情况下，预计到2050年，交通运输的基线排放将导致二氧化碳排放量在2020年的水平上增加60-75%(因信息来源而异)。•Iftransportationcontributesitsfairsharetowardskeepingglobalwarmingbelow1.5C,itwillneedtoreduceCO2emissionsby78%from2020levelsand88%fromprojected2050baselinelevels.Source:InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation•如果要让交通运输为全球变暖控制1.5C以下做出贡献，它将需要在2020年的水平上减少78%的二氧化碳排放，在2050年的预计基线水平上减少88%。资料来源:国际清洁运输理事会4•TheInternationalCouncilonCleanTransportationestimatesthatworldwidein2020,43%ofCO2emissionscamefromlightdutyvehicles&2and3wheelers;34%fromheavydutyvehicles&buses,11%frommarine,10%fromaviation,and2%fromrail.•国际清洁交通委员会估计，到2020年，全球43%的二氧化碳排放来自轻型汽车&2轮和3轮汽车;34%来自重型车辆和公共汽车，11%来自海运，10%来自航空，2%来自铁路。•Ifwearegoingaddressthecausesofclimatechange,wemustfindwaystodecarbonizetheentiretransportsector.•如果我们要解决气候变化，我们必须找到让整个交通部门脱碳的方法。•Ourstrategieswillneedtofocusasmuchonfreightandaviationasonsurfacepassengertravel.•我们的战略既要关注地面客运，也要关注货运和航空。•Thisisaglobalissuethatwillrequireaglobalapproachtoaddressingtheproblem.•这是一个全球性问题，需要采取全球性办法来解决这个问题。5TheClimateChangeChallenge气候变化•AccordingtoICCT,90%ofthegrowthinCO2emissionsbetweennowand2050isprojectedtooccurinChina,theAsiaPacificregion,India,andAfrica,drivenalmostentirelybyincreasedtraveldemand.•根据ICCT的预测，从现在到2050年，90%的二氧化碳排放增长将发生在中国、亚太地区、印度和非洲，几乎完全由出行需求的增长驱动。•Thechallengeistoreduceemissionswithoutimpactingeconomicgrowthinthesepartsoftheworld.•我们面临的挑战是在不影响这些地区经济增长的情况下减少排放•Atthesametime,NorthAmericaandEuropewillneedtoreduceemissionsfromexistinglevelsbysignificantamounts.•与此同时，北美和欧洲将需要在现有水平上大幅减少排放。•Thiswillbeadauntingchallengethatwillrequireaninternationalcommitmentbypolicymakersandthepublic!•这将是一项艰巨的挑战，需要决策者和公众的国际承诺!6TheClimateChangeChallenge气候变化StrategiestoReduceGHGEmissions减少温室气体排放的策略•Conversionofthevehicularfleettozeroemissionvehicles将车辆转为零排放车辆•Emissionreductionsinremaininginternalcombustion(ICE)vehicles•减少内燃机(ICE)车辆的排放•Policiestoreducetraveldemand减少出行需求的政策•Electricitygenerationfromrenewablesources可再生能源发电•Taxingandpricingpolicies税收和价格政策•Useofalternativemodesoftransportation使用其他运输方式•Telecommunicationsasasubstitutefortravel电信作为旅行的替代品Althoughalloftheabovewillneedtobepursued,thevastmajorityofreductionswillneedtocomefromvehicularemissionsreductions,i.e.decarbonizationofthevehiclefleet.虽然以上所有的目标都需要实现，但绝大多数的减排将需要来自于车辆减排，即车辆的脱碳。7DecarbonizationChallenges减碳挑战•Conversionfrommanufacturinginternalcombustionengines(ICE)vehiclestoelectricvehicles(EVs)车辆向电动化转变•Changingconsumerdemandtowanttobuyelectricvehicles改变消费者需求–Overcomingrangeanxiety克服续航焦虑–InitialcostsarestillhigherforEvs居高不下的初始成本•Batterytechnologychallenges电池技术难题–Increasingbatterycapacitywithoutincreasingweight增大容量时如何维持重量–Increasingtherangeofelectricvehiclebatteries增加电动汽车电池的使用范围–Supplyofmaterialsforbatteries(especiallyrareearthmaterials)电池材料供应（特别是稀土材料）–Recyclingofusedbatteries废旧电池的回收8•Vehiclecharginginfrastructure充电基础设施–Providingchargingstationsinlocationswheremarketdemandislow充电站点的选择–Fastcharginginfrastructure快速充电•Capacityofelectricgrid电网容量•Conversionofelectricitygenerationtorenewablesources发电向可再生能源靠拢•Economicimpacts经济影响–ImpactstosupplychainforICEvehicles影响传统汽车供应–Impactstorepairandmaintenanceserviceandpartsproviders影响维修、维护、零部件供应–Impactstoservicestations影响服务站9DecarbonizationChallenges减碳挑战•Fleetturnoverchallenges车辆周转率–ICEvehicleswillbethemajorityformanyyearstocome未来传统能源汽车仍将占据主流–Howcanwereduceemissionsoftheexistingfleet?如今的车辆构成如何减排？•Goodsmovement货物运输–Batterytechnologyisinsufficienttogeneratepowerneededforlongdistances;majoradvancesneededincleanpropulsionpower电池不足以支持长途运输；清洁能源动力需要重大进展–Futureofhydrogenasprincipalenergysourcetoreplacediesel氢能作为主要能源的未来•Aviation航空–Sustainableaviationfuel可持续燃料–Modaldiversionofshorttrips短途旅行有更多选择10DecarbonizationChallenges减碳挑战CollaborationIsCritical合作的重要性•Decarbonizationisaglobalchallengethatwillrequireallnationstobeworkingtogethertoaddress.•脱碳是一项全球性挑战，需要所有国家共同努力解决。•Therearemanyissuesandchallengesthatrequireustocollaborate.许多问题和挑战需要合作。•Wecanandmustlearnfromeachotheraboutresearchanddeploymentresults,lessonslearned,andfuturechallenges.•我们能够，而且必须在研究和部署成果、经验教训和未来挑战方面相互学习。•Thisappliestobothtechnicalandpolicyissues.•技术问题和政策议题均是如此。•Wehaveadauntingchallengethatwemustsolvetogether,andweneedtobecollaboratingonthefullrangeofissuesassociatedwithdecarbonization!•要共同解决这个艰巨的挑战，我们需要在与脱碳相关的所有问题上进行合作！11TransportationResearchBoard•TRBwebsite:www.trb.org•SignupfortheTRBweeklye-newsletter订阅每周时讯•BecomeinvolvedasaFriendofaTRBCommittee:加入委员会www.MyTRB.org•TRBTRIDdatabase:数据库www.trid.trb.org•TRBAnnualMeeting,Washington,DC,Jan.8-12,2023•2023年TRB年会：1月8日至12日，美国华盛顿12NeilJ.PedersenTRBExecutiveDirectornpedersen@nas.eduCredit:RisdonPhotography