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APRIL 2022

AUTHORS

CHRISTINE VAUGHAN

Director

PIERRE SAMATIES

Partner

BILL KEMP

Director

FEROZ SANAULLA

Partner

1 Feb 17, 2022, range of 55 to 361 TWh, Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption, University of Cambridge

HOW CRYPTO MINING

WILL TRANSFORM THE

ENERGY INDUSTRY

Implications of the crypto economy

for the electric system

The crypto economy is here to stay and crypto mining and staking

is one of the main areas of interest for investment funds, corporates

and governments.

Crypto mining refers to the process of validating transactions and therefore securing

and powering a blockchain protocol. The most famous protocol is Bitcoin – the current

king of crypto since its genesis block in 2009. Bitcoin mining is energy intensive. At the

time of writing, the total annual power consumption of Bitcoin is 145 TWh1 (~0.32%

of the total global energy consumption). The energy intensity is rooted in the choice of

its consensus mechanism, commonly known as proof-of-work. However, the same

laborious consensus mechanism is also the main reason for Bitcoin's security – it is

too costly (or in other words requires too much "work") for malicious actors to rewrite

transactions. In a nutshell, a Bitcoin mining rig consists of specialized machines

dedicated to solving an algorithmic puzzle. The brute force approach and the

dynamically adjusted difficulty of mining so that a block is mined around every ten

minutes (an intelligent design feature built into the protocol) are two factors for the

high energy demand of Bitcoin mining.

The answer to the much debated question of whether Bitcoin mining consumes too

much energy is in the eye of the beholder, e.g. it depends on what legacy systems Bitcoin

is replacing and what benefits it brings to society. While this is a highly interesting

debate that touches on philosophical, economic and philanthropic elements, this article

will focus on the impact and changes that Bitcoin mining (and proof-of-work based

mining in general) brings to the electrical system and how miners can form a symbiosis

with power and utility companies around the world.

Bitcoin mining growth

Bitcoin mining uses a tremendous amount of power. Some of the larger Bitcoin mines

are served by dedicated power plants. While the global energy mix used for mining is

now over 57% from clean energy sources,2 the demand it can create on the power grids

is immense.

In the past five years, the energy consumption has grown from 11.8 to 120.5 TWh3 per

year, which is the equivalent of adding 2,400 wind turbines every year. For context, the

US has installed on average about 3,000 wind turbines a year.4 On February 12, 2022,

the Bitcoin network hash rate (the aggregate volume of mining algorithm operations)

2 Bitcoin Mining Council Q3 2021 Report, defining clean sources as hydro, wind, solar, nuclear,

geothermal and carbon generation with carbon offsets

3 University of Cambridge

4 USGS

Source Roland Berger

How does Bitcoin mining work?

The Bitcoin mining process

Miners compete to solve a

cryptographic puzzle that is designed to

be di icult to solve but easy to verify

The puzzle uses signiﬁ cant computational

power. The network di iculty is adjusted

about every 2 weeks so that 1 block is

veriﬁ ed every 10 minutes.

Often miners pool together to solve the

puzzle and any rewards are distributed

based on computational power.

The Bitcoin supply is ﬁ xed at

21 million and currently about

19 million has been mined.

The rewards for mining

are predetermined and are

currently 6.25 Bitcoin per

block or 900 per day.

After the puzzle

is solved or

hashed, the

miners verify the

transaction

The new block

is added to the

blockchain

Winning miners

(or pools of

miners) are

rewarded with

Bitcoin

Users generate

transactions with

Bitcoin. Pending

transactions are

grouped in a block

Miners

reached a new all-time high of 248.11 million terahashes per second (TH/s).5 NYDIG,

a Bitcoin company, estimates that electricity consumption could rise to a peak of

706 TWh in 2027 under its high Bitcoin price scenario.6

After the Bitcoin mining ban in China in September 2021, and after some countries

began restricting mining due to concerns around the strain it causes in their utility grid,

global hash rates quickly found new homes and the United States has taken the leading

position in global Bitcoin mining.

This large growth in energy use will affect decarbonization objectives if fossil fuel is used

as the source of power. We expect a continued movement towards using clean energy

given the increasing spotlight being placed on sustainability by regulators and investors

and the influence of economic concerns. In view of the inherent incentive of miners to

minimize energy costs, and the fact that clean energy in most locations is the cheapest

source of energy,7 we expect the Bitcoin mining industry to continue to move quickly to

clean energy. This is especially true in countries with a strong policy push for decarboni-

zation. We are also seeing a continued movement towards better energy efficiency,

partially offsetting the growing energy use. For instance, Intel claims that its recent circuit

innovations have 1,000 times better performance per watt than mainstream circuits.8

Without a doubt, even with the tremendous efficiency improvements, the exponential

expansion of crypto mining operations will add to global power generation demand,

especially in the US. This new surge in demand will amplify the needs of the electricity

5 A hash is the computation run by specialized mining computers in support of the blockchain.

A terahash is a trillion hashes

6 NYDIG, Bitcoin Net Zero, September 2021

7 "As available" energy

8 https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/opinion/thoughts-blockchain-custom-compute-

group.html#gs.qb4u05

Source University of Cambridge, Blockchain.com, Roland Berger

Estimated TWh per year

Bitcoin energy consumption and network di iculty reached

new all-time highs

Development of global Bitcoin energy consumption and network di iculty

201420132012

140

120

100

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 201420132012

30t

25t

20t

15t

10t

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

GLOBAL BITCOIN ENERGY CONSUMPTION

[TWh]

NETWORK DIFFICULTY

[t]

A relative

measure of how

di icult it is to mine

a new block for

the blockchain

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1APRIL2022AUTHORSCHRISTINEVAUGHANDirectorPIERRESAMATIESPartnerBILLKEMPDirectorFEROZSANAULLAPartner1Feb17,2022,rangeof55to361TWh,CambridgeBitcoinElectricityConsumption,UniversityofCambridgeHOWCRYPTOMININGWILLTRANSFORMTHEENERGYINDUSTRYImplicationsofthecryptoeconomyfortheelectricsystemThecryptoeconomyisheretostayandcryptominingandstakingisoneofthemainareasofinterestforinvestmentfunds,corporatesandgovernments.Cryptominingreferstotheprocessofvalidatingtransactionsandthereforesecuringandpoweringablockchainprotocol.ThemostfamousprotocolisBitcoin–thecurrentkingofcryptosinceitsgenesisblockin2009.Bitcoinminingisenergyintensive.Atthetimeofwriting,thetotalannualpowerconsumptionofBitcoinis145TWh1(~0.32%ofthetotalglobalenergyconsumption).Theenergyintensityisrootedinthechoiceofitsconsensusmechanism,commonlyknownasproof-of-work.However,thesamelaboriousconsensusmechanismisalsothemainreasonforBitcoin'ssecurity–itistoocostly(orinotherwordsrequirestoomuch"work")formaliciousactorstorewritetransactions.Inanutshell,aBitcoinminingrigconsistsofspecializedmachinesdedicatedtosolvinganalgorithmicpuzzle.Thebruteforceapproachandthe2dynamicallyadjusteddifficultyofminingsothatablockisminedaroundeverytenminutes(anintelligentdesignfeaturebuiltintotheprotocol)aretwofactorsforthehighenergydemandofBitcoinmining.TheanswertothemuchdebatedquestionofwhetherBitcoinminingconsumestoomuchenergyisintheeyeofthebeholder,e.g.itdependsonwhatlegacysystemsBitcoinisreplacingandwhatbenefitsitbringstosociety.Whilethisisahighlyinterestingdebatethattouchesonphilosophical,economicandphilanthropicelements,thisarticlewillfocusontheimpactandchangesthatBitcoinmining(andproof-of-workbasedminingingeneral)bringstotheelectricalsystemandhowminerscanformasymbiosiswithpowerandutilitycompaniesaroundtheworld.BitcoinmininggrowthBitcoinminingusesatremendousamountofpower.SomeofthelargerBitcoinminesareservedbydedicatedpowerplants.Whiletheglobalenergymixusedforminingisnowover57%fromcleanenergysources,2thedemanditcancreateonthepowergridsisimmense.Inthepastfiveyears,theenergyconsumptionhasgrownfrom11.8to120.5TWh3peryear,whichistheequivalentofadding2,400windturbineseveryyear.Forcontext,theUShasinstalledonaverageabout3,000windturbinesayear.4OnFebruary12,2022,theBitcoinnetworkhashrate(theaggregatevolumeofminingalgorithmoperations)2BitcoinMiningCouncilQ32021Report,definingcleansourcesashydro,wind,solar,nuclear,geothermalandcarbongenerationwithcarbonoffsets3UniversityofCambridge4USGSSourceRolandBergerHowdoesBitcoinminingwork?TheBitcoinminingprocessMinerscompetetosolveacryptographicpuzzlethatisdesignedtobediiculttosolvebuteasytoverifyThepuzzleusessigniﬁcantcomputationalpower.Thenetworkdifficultyisadjustedaboutevery2weekssothat1blockisveriﬁedevery10minutes.Oftenminerspooltogethertosolvethepuzzleandanyrewardsaredistributedbasedoncomputationalpower.TheBitcoinsupplyisﬁxedat21millionandcurrentlyabout19millionhasbeenmined.Therewardsforminingarepredeterminedandarecurrently6.25Bitcoinperblockor900perday.Afterthepuzzleissolvedorhashed,theminersverifythetransactionThenewblockisaddedtotheblockchainWinningminers(orpoolsofminers)arerewardedwithBitcoinUsersgeneratetransactionswithBitcoin.PendingtransactionsaregroupedinablockMiners3reachedanewall-timehighof248.11millionterahashespersecond(TH/s).5NYDIG,aBitcoincompany,estimatesthatelectricityconsumptioncouldrisetoapeakof706TWhin2027underitshighBitcoinpricescenario.6AftertheBitcoinminingbaninChinainSeptember2021,andaftersomecountriesbeganrestrictingminingduetoconcernsaroundthestrainitcausesintheirutilitygrid,globalhashratesquicklyfoundnewhomesandtheUnitedStateshastakentheleadingpositioninglobalBitcoinmining.Thislargegrowthinenergyusewillaffectdecarbonizationobjectivesiffossilfuelisusedasthesourceofpower.Weexpectacontinuedmovementtowardsusingcleanenergygiventheincreasingspotlightbeingplacedonsustainabilitybyregulatorsandinvestorsandtheinfluenceofeconomicconcerns.Inviewoftheinherentincentiveofminerstominimizeenergycosts,andthefactthatcleanenergyinmostlocationsisthecheapestsourceofenergy,7weexpecttheBitcoinminingindustrytocontinuetomovequicklytocleanenergy.Thisisespeciallytrueincountrieswithastrongpolicypushfordecarboni-zation.Wearealsoseeingacontinuedmovementtowardsbetterenergyefficiency,partiallyoffsettingthegrowingenergyuse.Forinstance,Intelclaimsthatitsrecentcircuitinnovationshave1,000timesbetterperformanceperwattthanmainstreamcircuits.8Withoutadoubt,evenwiththetremendousefficiencyimprovements,theexponentialexpansionofcryptominingoperationswilladdtoglobalpowergenerationdemand,especiallyintheUS.Thisnewsurgeindemandwillamplifytheneedsoftheelectricity5Ahashisthecomputationrunbyspecializedminingcomputersinsupportoftheblockchain.Aterahashisatrillionhashes6NYDIG,BitcoinNetZero,September20217"Asavailable"energy8https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/opinion/thoughts-blockchain-custom-compute-group.html#gs.qb4u05SourceUniversityofCambridge,Blockchain.com,RolandBergerEstimatedTWhperyearBitcoinenergyconsumptionandnetworkdifficultyreachednewall-timehighsDevelopmentofglobalBitcoinenergyconsumptionandnetworkdifficulty2014201320121401201008060402002015201620172018201920202021202220142013201230t25t20t15t10t5t0t20152016201720182019202020212022GLOBALBITCOINENERGYCONSUMPTION[TWh]NETWORKDIFFICULTY[t]Arelativemeasureofhowdifficultitistomineanewblockfortheblockchain4sector,whichalreadyfacesthechallengeofmeetinglong-termelectrificationdemandsfromweaningthetransportationandbuildingsectorsofffossilfuelstomovetowardsnetzerogoals.SpecialattributesofBitcoinminingWhilecryptominingoperationssharethesameflat,veryhighloadfactor9usagecharacteristicsasothertypesofdatacenters,theirbusinessmodelandthenatureoftheiroutputcreateadistinctivesetofcustomerattributeswhencomparedtoothertypesofelectricityusers.•Energypricesensitive:Withthecostofpowerrepresentingover80%ofBitcoin'soperatingcosts,minersareextremelysensitivetothecostofpowerandarehighlyincentivizedtofindthebestdealglobally.Inthesearchforthelowestpowerprice,minersoftenseektostrikedealswithutilitiesandpowerplantstobedirectlylocatedonsite(andcircumventgridcosts)orutilizeexcessenergy(e.g.flaredgas).Atthetimeofwritingthisarticle,mostoftheBitcoinminingfacilitiesgloballyoperatewithpowercostsbetween3centsand8centsUSDperMWh,withminingprofitsthatcanpayoffthecostoftheminingequipmentinalittleoverayear.•Agnostictolocationandflexible:Miningrigsareoftenorganizedinmodularcontainers,makingthemveryflexibletodeployandmove.Theypreferlocationswithstableregulatoryregimesthatofferaccommodatingrelationshipswiththeutilitiesandthatideallyhavecolderclimatestoreducecoolingrequirements.HotterlocalessuchasTexasandtheMiddleEastareviablewithnewtechnologysuchashydro9Loadfactoristheactualamountofenergyusedinaperiodoftimedividedbythetotalpeakenergyinthatsameperiodoftime.Itisusedasameasureofefficiency.SourceBitcoinMiningCouncil,RolandBerger1ASICstandsforApplication-SpeciﬁcIntegratedCircuit,machinesspecializedjustforminingcryptocurrencyTheefficiencyofASIC1miningmachinesimprovedtremendouslyoverrecentyearsImprovementinASICminingmachineefficiency[J/Th]20142013201520162017201820192020AvalonB1JupiterU1BF864C55RockerBoxBE3000BM13850PickAxe0S9R4Ebit10S15S17S19Hugeefficiencygains1,2505003161871815914040983097921,4749,3515coolingandimmersioncooling–notetheUAE'sannouncementthatitwilldeploy500+MWofminingcapacity.Theycanoperateanywhereintheworld,creatingaglobalmarket.Besidesthecoolinginfrastructure,minersonlyneedastableinternetconnection.Inaddition,Bitcoinminerstrytomaximizetheuseoftheirassets,includingutilizationoftheheatforotherpurposes(e.g.greenhouses).•Focusedontheshortterm:Minersusespecializedcomputersdesignedtomineasfastaspossible.Thosewithfastermachinesearnmore.Thelifetimevalueoftheminingmachinesislessthanthreeyears,drivenbothbyrapidtechnologicaldevelopmentsandbytheintenseuseofthemachinesgiventheirhighprofitmargins(onaveragenorthof30%).Combinedwiththeacknowledgedvolatilityofcrypto-currencymarkets,thismeansthatminersaregenerallyunwillingtomakecontractualcommitmentsforpowerthatextendmorethanthreeyearsorso.Miningequipmentthatisolderthan3yearsisoftenusedonlyinregionswhereminershaveverylow(ornearlyfree)energycosts.Fromautility'spointofview,minerscanthereforebeseenasshort-termusersoftheoverallpowersystemthatcanhelpbridgegapsofoversupplyuntilfurthereconomicdevelopment.Ontheotherhand,basedonthepotentialshort-termtimehorizonoftheminingoperations(ifminersdon'tdecidetocontinuouslyupgradethetechnologyandcommittolong-termoperations),utilitieswillnotbekeentoinvestinadditionalinfrastructuretoaccommodatethemiftheydonotpaythefullcostsovertimeoftheinfrastructureupgrades.•Demandresponseready:Minerscanformaperfectsymbiosiswithutilitieswithregardtobalancingsupplyanddemandonashort-termbasiswithintheoverallsystem.Whileaminerwouldprefertorunasmuchaspossible,therearenoadverseimpacts,otherthanlostrevenue,iftheyareshutdown.Miningrewardsaregainedinsprints,notmarathons,andtheyarenotboundbyatimeofday.Theyverifyablockoftransactionsintheblockchain,intheexampleofBitcoin,everytenminutesonaverage.Theminerscancontrolthepaceanddegreeoftheirshutdownandhencecanbeveryscalableasdemandresponseresources.Ofcourse,utilitiesormarketoperatorswouldhavetomakeitworthwhileforminerstointerrupttheirrevenue-producingoperations.Thereareveryfewenergyusersthatarethislargeandhavethisdegreeofflexibilitytorampupanddowninamatterofminutes–withsomeminersclaimingtheycanshutdowninseconds.Giventhesedistinctiveattributes,andalargeamountoffastinterruptiblepower,cryptominingcanservetheelectricsysteminthreebeneficialways:(1)Newrevenuestreamsandassetoptimization,(2)Demandresponseandloadbalancingand(3)Systemcontrolandplanning.Thepotentialnegativeissuesareexploredbelow,afterthefollowingsection.Cryptomining'simpactontheelectricsystemNewrevenuestreamsandassetoptimizationDuetothegeographicflexibilityofcrypto,thisloadcanbeeasilysituatednearthepointofgeneration.Typically,thesystemworkstheotherwayround,withgenerationsituatedascloseaspossibletoloadcentersorlargetransmissionsystemscarryingloadfromfurtheraway.Thisprovidesauniqueopportunitytoobtainvaluefromunder-utilizedgenerationcapacity.1"Thecryptoeconomywilltransformmanyindustries,theenergyindustrybeingoneofthem.Minersandutilitiescanformasymbiosisintheenergysystemofthefuture."PIERRESAMATIESPartner6Cryptominingoffersanentirelynewwaytomonetizepowergeneration.Itcanbasicallyconvertpowerintoagloballyacceptedcryptocurrency.Generatorsanywherewithexcesspowercanearnfromthatpowerinsteadofcurtailingenergyorfindingandconnectingtootherusers.Bitcoincanunlocknewusesforenergythatotherwisewouldn'tbeused.Forinstance,hydrodamscangeneratemorepowerintherainyseasonthancanbeabsorbed,oil&gascompaniescanutilizeflaregas,etc.Generatorsconstrainedbytransmissionavailabilitycanfindnewoutletsfortheirpower,potentiallyenablingmoresolarandwindinruralareas.Locatingminingcontainersnearthisgenerationcanhelpimprovetheutilizationoftheassetsandwillextendtheirmarketablelives.NuclearfacilitiesintheUSarebeginningtousecryptocurrencyminingtoincreasetheirrevenuesandimprovetheireconomicsastheycompetewithlowerpricedgeneration.Thismayevenimpactcommunitysolarorothervirtualpowerplantswiththenewrevenuestreams,makingthemlessdependentonregulatorysubsidies.Withthegreenenergytransitioninmind,thereisunderstandableconcernaroundanytoolthatmayhelpimprovetheprofitabilityandlifetimeoffossil-fuel-basedpowerplants.Theindustryisundertremendouspressuretousecleanpowergeneration.Assistancecanalsobeprovidedforsolargeneration,enablingavaluestreamforprojectsthatareinlonginterconnectionqueuesorinareasthatarealreadyfilledwithtoomuchsolarpowerinaparticularlocation.Theadditionalvaluestreamswithcryptocapitalcanacceleratearenewablesbuildout.Thiscouldpotentiallychangetheeconomicsoftransmission,particularlyforprojectsthatareprimarilydesignedtoarbitragethepriceofgenerationintwodifferentregions.Withlowcosts,remotegenerationnowhasanalternativeoptionforuseinsteadofdependingontransmissionlinestoconnectthepowertocitiesandloadcenters.Inadditional,inhotterclimateswithsignificantseasonaldemandcurvedifferences(liketheMiddleEast),SourceBitOoda,RolandBergerWhatinﬂuencedoeselectricitycosthaveontheBitcoinprice?Bitcoinandelectricitypricingconnection(USexamplewithwholesaleenergypurchase)CostofwholesaleelectricityPriceofBitcoinCostofnaturalgas(rawmaterialforelectricityproducedatthemargin)SparkspreadIndicativeamounttocoverﬁxedcostofgeneratorandproﬁtsHashspreadTMIndicativeamounttocoverﬁxedcostofmachineandproﬁtsFebruary16,2022USD162/MWhhashspreadforS19machinesintheUSwithaveragecostofwholesalepowerUSD69.62/MWhandBitcoinpriceofUSD43,6227Bitcoinminerscanhelpincreasetheutilizationofassetsinwintermonths,whentheloadissignificantlylowerthaninthesummer(mainlybasedonACconsumption).DemandresponseandloadbalancingMoredynamicparticipationofcustomersinbalancingelectricitysupplyanddemandonaveryshort-termbasisisamegatrendintheutilityindustry.Tomaintainpowerreliabilityandquality,electricsystemoperatorsmustmatchsupplyanddemandinrealtime.Withelectricitysuppliesbecomingmoreintermittentandhighlyvariable(e.g.solarandwind),andnewelectricitydemandsalsobeingmorevolatile(e.g.EVcharging),flexibletoolstomanagebothsupplyanddemandareallthemoreimportantandvaluable.Typicalsupply-sidemeansformatchingavailablegenerationwithcustomerloadincludeflexiblepeakinggenerationplants,orbatteriesandotherformsofstorage.Themaininstrumentsonthedemandsideforreal-timesystembalancingareextremepeakpricing(todiscouragepeakusage)anddemandresponseprograms(tocontrolpeakusagevoluntarily).Ratherthanaddingnewsupplyresourcestomeetpeakelectricsystemdemands,itisoftenlesscostlytorecruitcustomerswhoarewillingtoreducetheirelectricityusageinresponsetorequestsfromtheutility,inreturnforadiscountorpayment.Hencetheterm"demandresponse."Thissavesmoneyforboththeutilityanditscustomers.Cryptominingcantakedemandresponsetoanewlevel,withlargeloadsthatcanbequicklycurtailedforafee.Forbesdescribesitasa"shockabsorberforgreenpower."Itcanprovideaseasonalbalanceinhotclimateswhereairconditionerusageandwaterdesalinationcreateseasonalloadpatterns.InnovativeutilitiessuchasBlackHillsEnergyaredevelopingnewflexibletariffstoaccommodatethisnewusecase.Otherusesforthesetariffscouldbeinterruptibledatacenterloads,whichwouldincludeotherapplicationsthatarenon-mission-criticalcomputationssuchassomemachinelearningandcomputationalbiology.Thesetariffsmayalsobeusedforotherlargeflexibleloadapplicationssuchastheproductionofgreenhydrogen,anotherusecasethatwillcompetewithcryptominingforlowenergypricingandcurtailedenergy.SystemcontrolandplanningJustasdemandresponsecanbeimplementedatthewholesaleleveltomanagethesystem,cryptominingalsohasthepotentialtohelplocalutilitieswithdistributionmanagement.Giventhelocationalflexibilityofminingoperations,theutilitycanstrategicallyplacetheoperationswhereit'smostbeneficialfromasystemcontrolpointofview.Withtheintegrationofdistributedgeneration,thegridisbecomingmorecomplex,withpowerneedingtoflowintwodirectionsinsteadofone.Giventhatthesystemmustalwaysbeinbalanceandthatitismoredifficulttopredictnewdemandandsupplyinthisenvironment,theutilitiesaregoingtoneedmoretoolstomanageandcontrolpowerflow.Cryptominingcanbeanadditionaltool,avacuumofsorts,absorbing"waste"powerwhereitisnotneededinthesystemsothatthegridcanoperatesmoother.Thistoolcanbeaddedtootherstrategiessuchasadvancedcontrolsystems,demandresponseandimprovedsystemarchitecturetooptimizethegridofthefuture.23"Cryptominingoffersanentirelynewwaytomonetizepowergeneration."CHRISTINEVAUGHANDirector8SystemrisksTheintensepowerusageofcryptominingcancausegridreliabilityandequipmentproblemsiflargeminingoperationsareconductedingridsthatdonothavethedemonstratedcapacitytohandletheexpectedincreaseinloads.Manygovernmentshavebannedorsignificantlyregulatedtheminingofcryptocurrencyduetoitsimpactsonthereliabilityofgridsthatwerealreadystressed,includingChina,IranandTurkey.Growthincryptominingcouldraisesimilarlocationalconcernsinothercountriesiftheincreaseinminingloadsoccursinareaswherethegridisatornearcapacity.Fromtheperspectiveofotherutilitycustomers,servicetonewlargecryptominingloadscouldbedetrimentaliftheenergyvolumesdemandedwouldrequiresignificantnewutilityinvestmentsinlong-livedgenerationortransmissionassets.Thefullrecoveryofsuchadditionalfixedcosts,oratleastthecostsoftheiraccelerationfromwhentheywouldbeneededtoserveothercustomers,isthreatenedbythevolatilityofthecryptocurrencymarket,thereluctanceofcryptominerstocommittolong-termenergypurchaseobligations,andtheportabilityoftheminers'majorphysicalassets(theircomputers).Inotherwords,theutilityanditsothercustomersfacesignificantrisksofstrandedgenerationortransmissioncostsshouldthecryptominersleavebeforetheircostresponsibilityisdischarged.Utilitiescanlargelymitigatesuchrisksthroughcollectingprepaymentsorsecuringobligationsfromthecryptominersbeforeundertakingsystemexpansioninvestmentontheirbehalf,andbymanagingastagedinterconnectionprocessthatrequiresgrowinglevelsoffinancialcommitmentsfromthecryptominersasanysystemexpansionprojectsprogress.Thishelpsimprovethecredibilityofnewservicerequeststhatmaysometimeshavespeculativeelements.Mostutilitiesalreadyhavesuchprocessesinplacefornewlargecustomerloads.Again,topresenttheriskpicturefairly,thesesystemreliabilityandstrandedinvestmentthreatsaremuchsmallerandmoremanageableiftheexistinggenerationandtransmissionsystemhasadequatecapacitytoservethenewcryptominerloads,orifthecryptominingoperationsarenotconnectedtothegrid.ConclusionTheriseofthecryptoeconomyandtheincreasedinvestmentsintoproof-of-workminingactivitiescomewithmajorimplicationsfortheenergysystem.Ifhandledwellwiththerightregulatoryandcommercialframework,itwillleadtoverypositiveopportunitiesforgovernmentsandutilitiesthatembracethepotentialsymbiosis,includinganindirectaccelerationofrenewableenergygrowth.Ontheotherhand,ifitisnotproperlydesignedwithaholisticviewoftheenergysystemandtheenergytransitionobjectives,itwillleadtorisksinthesystem.Hence,itisimportanttounderstandthein-depthmechanicsoftheindustryandbridgeittonationalenergystrategies."Evenwiththetremendousefficiencyimprovements,theexponentialexpansionofcryptominingoperationswilladdtoglobalpowergenerationdemand,especiallyintheUS."BILLKEMPDirector9CONTACT:THERISEOFTHECRYPTOECONOMYrb.digital/Crypto_EconomyEXPERTISE:ENERGY&UTILITIESrb.digital/Energy_and_UtilitiesNEXTLEVELGRIDOPERATIONSrb.digital/Next_level_grid_operationsFurtherreadingCHRISTINEVAUGHANDirectorBostonOffice+16173062139christine.vaughan@rolandberger.comPIERRESAMATIESPartnerDubaiOffice+97144464080pierre.samaties@rolandberger.comBILLKEMPDirectorChicagoOffice+19414485674bill.kemp@rolandberger.comFEROZSANAULLAPartnerDubaiOffice+97144464080feroz.sanaulla@rolandberger.comThispublicationhasbeenpreparedforgeneralguidanceonly.Thereadershouldnotactaccordingtoanyinformationprovidedinthispublicationwithoutreceivingspecificprofessionaladvice.RolandBergerGmbHshallnotbeliableforanydamagesresultingfromanyuseoftheinformationcontainedinthepublication.©2022ROLANDBERGERGMBH.ALLRIGHTSRESERVED.

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