@Energy,ElectricityandNuclearPowerEstimatesforthePeriodupto2050REFERENCEDATASERIESNo.12022EditionENERGY,ELECTRICITYANDNUCLEARPOWERESTIMATESFORTHEPERIODUPTO2050REFERENCEDATASERIESNo.1ENERGY,ELECTRICITYANDNUCLEARPOWERESTIMATESFORTHEPERIODUPTO20502022EditionINTERNATIONALATOMICENERGYAGENCYVIENNA,2022ENERGY,ELECTRICITYANDNUCLEARPOWERESTIMATESFORTHEPERIODUPTO2050IAEA-RDS-1/42ISBN978-92-0-136722-8ISSN1011-2642PrintedbytheIAEAinAustriaSeptember2022Coverphotocredit:TapaniKarjanlahti/TVO2022CONTENTSINTRODUCTION............................................1WORLD...................................................6EnergyOverview2021.......................................7NuclearPowerDevelopmentin2021............................9FinalEnergyConsumption....................................14ElectricityProduction.........................................15EnergyandElectricityProjections...............................16NuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections.................18ReactorRetirementsandAdditions..............................20ElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections.....................22NORTHERNAMERICA.......................................26EnergyOverview2021.......................................27FinalEnergyConsumption....................................28ElectricityProduction.........................................29EnergyandElectricityProjections...............................30NuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections.................32ReactorRetirementsandAdditions..............................34ElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections.....................36LATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN.........................38EnergyOverview2021.......................................39FinalEnergyConsumption....................................40ElectricityProduction........................................41EnergyandElectricityProjections...............................42NuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections.................44ReactorRetirementsandAdditions..............................46ElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections.....................48NORTHERN,WESTERNANDSOUTHERNEUROPE..............50EnergyOverview2021.......................................51FinalEnergyConsumption....................................52ElectricityProduction.........................................53EnergyandElectricityProjections...............................54NuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections.................56ReactorRetirementsandAdditions..............................58ElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections.....................60EASTERNEUROPE.........................................62EnergyOverview2021.......................................63FinalEnergyConsumption....................................64ElectricityProduction.........................................65EnergyandElectricityProjections...............................66NuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections.................68ReactorRetirementsandAdditions..............................70ElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections.....................72AFRICA...................................................74EnergyOverview2021.......................................75FinalEnergyConsumption....................................76ElectricityProduction.........................................77EnergyandElectricityProjections...............................78PerCapitaEnergyandElectricity...............................80NuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections.................82ElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections.....................84WESTERNASIA............................................86EnergyOverview2021.......................................87FinalEnergyConsumption....................................88ElectricityProduction.........................................89EnergyandElectricityProjections...............................90NuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections.................92ElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections.....................94SOUTHERNASIA...........................................96EnergyOverview2021.......................................97FinalEnergyConsumption....................................98ElectricityProduction.........................................99EnergyandElectricityProjections...............................100NuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections.................102ReactorRetirementsandAdditions..............................104ElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections.....................106CENTRALANDEASTERNASIA................................108EnergyOverview2021.......................................109FinalEnergyConsumption....................................110ElectricityProduction.........................................111EnergyandElectricityProjections...............................112NuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections.................114ReactorRetirementsandAdditions..............................116ElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections.....................118SOUTH-EASTERNASIA......................................120EnergyOverview2021.......................................121FinalEnergyConsumption....................................122ElectricityProduction.........................................123EnergyandElectricityProjections...............................124NuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections.................126OCEANIA.................................................128EnergyOverview2021.......................................129FinalEnergyConsumption....................................130ElectricityProduction.........................................131EnergyandElectricityProjections...............................132NuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections.................134REFERENCES.............................................1371IntroductionReferenceDataSeriesNo.1(RDS-1)isanannualpublication—currentlyinits42ndedition—containingestimatesofenergy,electricityandnuclearpowertrendsuptotheyear2050.ThepublicationisorganizedintoworldandregionalsubsectionsandstartswithasummaryofthestatusofnuclearpowerinIAEAMemberStatesasoftheendof2021basedonthelateststatisticaldatacollectedbytheIAEA’sPowerReactorInformationSystem.Itthenpresentsglobalandregionalprojectionsforenergyandelectricityupto2050derivedfromtwointernationalstudies:theInternationalEnergyAgency’sWorldEnergyOutlook2021[1]andtheUnitedStatesEnergyInformationAdministration’sInternationalEnergyOutlook2021[2].Theenergyandelectricitydatafor2021areestimated,asthelatestinformationavailablefromtheUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs[3]andInternationalEnergyAgency[4]isfor2019.PopulationdataoriginatefromWorldPopulationProspects2022[5],publishedbythePopulationDivisionoftheUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs.Globalandregionalnuclearpowerprojectionsarepresentedaslowandhighcases,encompassingtheuncertaintiesinherentinprojectingtrends.Theprojectionsarebasedonacriticalreviewof(i)theglobalandregionalenergy,electricityandnuclearpowerprojectionsmadebyotherinternationalorganizations,(ii)nationalprojectionssuppliedbyindividualcountriesforarecentjointOECDNuclearEnergyAgencyandIAEAstudy[6]and(iii)estimatesoftheexpertgroupparticipatinginanannualIAEAconsultancymeeting.ThenuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityestimatespresentedinTable5onpage24ofthepublicationarederivedusingacountrybycountry‘bottom-up’approach.Inderivingtheseestimates,thegroupofexpertsconsideredalloperatingreactors,possiblelicencerenewals,plannedshutdownsandplausibleconstructionprojectsforeseenforthenextseveraldecades.Theexpertsbuildtheestimatesprojectbyprojectbyassessingtheplausibilityofeachconsideringahighandlowcase.Theassumptionsofthelowcasearethatcurrentmarket,technologyandresourcetrendscontinueandtherearefewadditionalchangesinexplicitlaws,policiesandregulationsaffectingnuclearpower.Thiscasewasdesignedtoproducea‘conservativebutplausible’setofprojections.Additionally,thelowcasedoesnot2assumethattargetsfornuclearpowerinaparticularcountrywillnecessarilybeachieved.Thehighcaseprojectionsaremuchmoreambitiousbutarestillplausibleandtechnicallyfeasible.Countrypoliciesonclimatechangearealsoconsideredinthehighcase.Inbothcasesthesameoutlookofeconomicandelectricitydemandgrowthbasedoncurrentexpectationsisassumed.Thehighcaseprojectionisnotintendedtoreflectanetzerocarbonemissionsambition.Itdoesnotassumeaspecificpathwayforenergysystemtransitionsinthedifferentcountriesbutintegratestheexpressedintentionsofthecountriesforexpandingtheuseofnuclearpower.Thelowandhighestimatesreflectcontrasting,butnotextreme,underlyingassumptionsaboutthedifferentdrivingfactorsthathaveanimpactonnuclearpowerdeployment.Thesefactors,andthewaytheymightevolve,varyfromcountrytocountry.Theestimatespresentedprovideaplausiblerangeofnuclearcapacitydevelopmentbyregionandworldwide.Theyarenotintendedtobepredictivenortoreflectthewholerangeofpossiblefuturesfromthelowesttothehighestfeasible.By2050globalfinalenergyconsumptionisprojectedtoincreasebyabout30%andelectricityproductionisexpectedtodouble[1,2].Worldwide,coalremainsthedominantenergysourceforelectricityproductionatabout36%for2021.Whileitsshareinelectricityproductionhaschangedlittlesince1980,thatofnuclear,renewablesandnaturalgashasincreasedoverthepast40years.Today,nuclearcontributesabout10%ofglobalelectricityproduction.TheadoptionoftheGlasgowClimatePactfollowingthe26thUnitedNationsClimateChangeConferenceoftheParties(COP26)inNovember2021hasledtorenewedmomentumtowardreachingnetzeroglobalCO2emissionsby2050.Inthelead-uptoCOP26,anumberofcountriesrevisedtheirnationallydeterminedcontributions,committedtoreachingnetzeroCO2emissionsinthecomingdecadesandrecognizedtherolethatnuclearenergycanplayinreachingthisclimategoal.OneofthekeyoutcomesofCOP26isthepledgebyanumberofcountriesandinternationalfinanceinstitutionstostopfinancingnewcoalpowerplantsandtophaseoutexistingcoalpowerplants.Energysecurityandresiliencearecurrentlymajorpolicyconcerns.RecenteventssuchastheCOVID-19pandemic,geopoliticaltensionsandmilitaryconflictinEuropehaveimpactedthereliabilityofenergysystems,impededenergyflowsacrossregionsandledtosignificantincreasesinenergyprices.Thereisgrowingrecognition3oftheroleofnuclearenergyasakeycontributortothesecurityofenergysupplytoavertfutureenergysupplyandpriceshocks.Inlightofthisevolvingenergylandscape,withstrongcommitmenttoclimateactionandrenewedscrutinyofenergysupplysecurity,anumberofMemberStateshaverevisedtheirnationalenergypolicy,leadingtodecisionsforthelongtermoperationofexistingreactors,newconstructionofGenerationIII/III+designs,andthedevelopmentanddeploymentofsmallmodularreactors.Thesefactorsarecontributingtogovernmentannouncementsofalargerrolefornuclearenergyintheirenergyandclimatestrategies,leadingtoanotableupwardrevisionofthehighcasebyabout10%comparedwiththe2021editionofthispublication.Relativetoaglobalnuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityof390gigawatts(electrical)(GW(e))in2021,thelowcaseprojectionsindicatethatworldnuclearcapacitywillremainessentiallythesameat404GW(e).Inthehighcase,worldnuclearcapacityisexpectedtomorethandoubleto873GW(e)1by2050.Thereareanumberofnecessaryconditionsforasubstantialincreaseininstallednuclearcapacity.Anumberoftheseissuesarebeingaddressed,includinginternationaleffortstowardregulatoryandindustrialharmonization,aswellasprogresswithfinaldisposalofhighlevelradioactivewaste.However,anumberofchallengesremain,includingfinancing,economicandsupplychaindifficultiesfornewnuclearconstructioninsomeregions.Climatechangemitigationisakeydriverofdecisionstocontinueorexpandtheuseofnuclearpower.AccordingtotheIAEA[7],theuseofnuclearpowerhasavoidedabout70gigatonnesofCO2emissionsoverthepast50years.CommitmentsmadeundertheParisAgreementandotherinitiativescouldsupportnuclearpowerdevelopment,providedthenecessaryenergypoliciesandmarketdesignsareestablishedtofacilitateinvestmentsindispatchablelowcarbontechnologies.AsstatedbytheInternationalEnergyAgency[8],almosthalfoftheCO2emissionreductionsneededtoreachnetzeroin2050willneedtocomefromtechnologiesthatarecurrentlyunderdevelopmentbutarenotyetonthemarket.Thisistruefornucleartechnologiessuchassmallandmediumsized,modularand1OwingtotheuncertainsituationinsomespecificcountriesinEasternEurope,theexpertgroupdecidednottoreviseprojectionsforthosecountries.4otheradvancedreactors.Acceleratingthepaceofinnovationanddemonstrationofthesetechnologiesisrequiredifnuclearistoplayaroleindecarbonizationbeyondelectricitybyprovidinglowcarbonheatorhydrogentotheindustrialandtransportsectors.2Currently,abouttwothirdsofnuclearpowerreactorshavebeeninoperationforover30years,highlightingtheneedforsignificantnewnuclearcapacitytooffsetretirementsinthelongterm.Uncertaintyremainsregardingthereplacementofthelargenumberofreactorsscheduledtoberetiredbyabout2030andbeyond,particularlyinNorthernAmerica.However,ageingmanagementprogrammesandlongtermoperationarebeingimplementedforanincreasingnumberofreactors.Additionally,newpolicymeasuresarebeingimplementedtosupportthecompetitivenessofexistingreactorsinliberalizedelectricitymarkets.Itisimportanttoconsiderthechangesinnuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityineachregionwithinthecontextofregionspecificfactors.Inrecentyears,constructioncostoverrunsanddelaysforfirstofakindprojectshaveledtohighprojectriskperceptionintheAmericasandEurope,hamperinginvestmentdecisionsfornewprojects.Insomeregionsnuclearpowerplantshavebeenbuiltontimeandonbudget.Theexpertgroupassumedthattheaforementionedchallengesmaycontinuetoaffectsomenucleardevelopmentplans.Thecurrentpaceofnuclearpowerdevelopmentshowsthaturgentactionsareneededtomaintaintheexistingroleofnuclearpowerintheenergymix.Theinvolvementofabroadrangeofactorsincludingpolicymakers,thenuclearindustryandinternationalorganizations,alongwithactiveengagementwiththepublic,isnecessary.Theunderlyingfundamentalsofpopulationandelectricityconsumptiongrowth,aswellasconcernsaboutclimatechangeandairqualityconcerns,thesecurityofenergysupplyandthepricevolatilityofotherfuels,pointtonuclearenergycontinuouslyplayinganessentialroleintheenergymixinthelongerrun,providedconcertedactionsaretaken.2Theprojectionsdonotexplicitlytakeintoaccountallthepotentialtechnologies(smallandadvancedreactors)andpotentialusesofnuclearpower(e.g.heat,hydrogen,waterdesalination)underclimatechangeconstraints.5GeographicalRegionsThenuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityprojectionspresentedinRDS-1aregroupedaccordingtothegeographicalregionsusedbytheStatisticsDivisionoftheUnitedNationsSecretariat(seeannexItoRef.[9]).ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialinthispublicationdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheIAEAconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.NotesTheestimatesfornuclearelectricityproductionin2021arefromthe2022editionofNuclearPowerReactorsintheWorld,ReferenceDataSeriesNo.2(RDS-2)[10].TheestimatesforenergyandelectricityaremadebytheIAEASecretariatonthebasisofdifferentinternationalandnationaldatasourcesavailableasofJuly2022.InaccordancewiththeInternationalRecommendationsforEnergyStatistics[11],theestimatesforthebreakdownofhistoricalelectricityproductionbyenergysourceareexpressedingrossfigures.Grosselectricityproductionisthetotalelectricalenergyproducedbyallgeneratingunitsandinstallationsmeasuredattheoutputterminalsofthegenerators.Currentdataonnuclearelectricalproductionandfutureestimatesofnuclearandtotalelectricalproductionareexpressedinnetvalues,asthedataareadaptedfromtheRDS-2publication.Owingtorounding,numberspresentedthroughoutthispublicationmaynotadduppreciselytothetotalsprovided,andpercentagesmaynotpreciselyreflecttheabsolutefigures.Totalfinalenergyconsumptionreferstoallfuelandenergydeliveredtoendusersfortheirenergyuse.Nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityestimatesconsiderthescheduledretirementofolderunitsattheendoftheirlifetime.Theglobalandregionalnuclearelectricalproductiondataandthenuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacitydatacannotbeusedtocalculateaverageannualcapacityfactorsfornuclearpowerplants,asthenuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacitydataareyear-endcapacity.millionpeople7877WorldoffinalenergyconsumedwaselectricityofelectricityproducedofelectricityproducedbynuclearEnergyOverview20219.8%27007TW∙h19.5%9WorldNuclearPowerDevelopmentin2021●Attheendof2021,437nuclearpowerreactorswereoperational,withatotalnetinstalledpowercapacityof389.5GW(e).●Inaddition,56reactorswithatotalcapacityof58.1GW(e)wereunderconstruction.●Sixnewnuclearpowerreactorswithatotalcapacityof5.2GW(e)wereconnectedtothegrid,andtenreactorswithatotalcapacityof8.7GW(e)wereretired.Constructionbeganontennewreactorsthatareexpectedtoaddatotalcapacityof8.8GW(e).●Comparedwith2020,totalelectricityproductionfromallenergysourcesincreasedby7%andelectricityproductionfromnuclearpowerreactorsincreasedabout4%to2653TW∙h.●Nuclearpoweraccountedfor9.8%oftotalelectricityproductionin2021,adecreaseof0.4percentagepointsfromthepreviousyear.●Thereductioninglobalelectricitydemandin2020wasthebiggestannualdeclinesincethemid-20thcentury.In2021globalelectricityconsumptionreboundedandexceededlevelsfor2019.Thetotalenergyconsumptionincreasedbutdidnotreachthelevelof2019.10WorldTABLE1.NUCLEARPOWERREACTORSINTHEWORLD(endof2021)CountryOperationalUnderConstructionNuclearElectricityProductionin2021NumberofunitsNetcapacity(MW(e))NumberofunitsNetcapacity(MW(e))TW·h%oftotalWorldTotalª43738950856580962653.19.8Argentina3164112510.27.2Armenia14481.925.3Bangladesh22160Belarus11110111105.414.1Belgium7594248.050.8Brazil218841134013.92.4Bulgaria2200615.834.6Canada191362486.814.3China53500341615967383.25.0CzechRepublic6393429.036.6Finland427941160022.632.8France566137011630363.469.0Germany3405565.411.9Hungary4191615.144.7India2267958602839.82.811WorldIran,IslamicRepublicof191519743.21.0Japan33316792265361.35.1Korea,Republicof242309145360150.526.5Mexico2155211.63.4Netherlands14823.63.1Pakistan522421101415.810.6Romania2130010.419.0RussianFederation372772743759208.419.2Slovakia41868288014.652.3Slovenia16885.436.9SouthAfrica2185412.23.4Spain7712154.220.8Sweden6688251.431.4Switzerland4296018.629.5Türkiye33342Ukraine15131072207081.155.0UnitedArabEmirates227622269010.11.3UnitedKingdom1273432326041.814.8UnitedStatesofAmerica939552322234771.619.6ªIncludesthefollowingdatafromTaiwan,China:3unitsinoperationwithatotalcapacityof2859MW(e)and26.8TW·hofnuclearelectricitygeneration,representing9.5%ofthetotalelectricityproduced.12WorldFIGURE1.WORLDNUCLEARELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONIN202102004006008001000UnitedStatesofAmerica771.6China383.2France363.4RussianFederation208.4Korea,Republicof150.5Canada86.8Ukraine81.1Germany65.4Japan61.3Spain54.2Sweden51.4Belgium48.0UnitedKingdom41.8India39.8CzechRepublic29.0Finland22.6Switzerland18.6Bulgaria15.8Pakistan15.8Hungary15.1Slovakia14.6Brazil13.9SouthAfrica12.2Mexico11.6Romania10.4Argentina10.2UnitedArabEmirates10.1Belarus5.4Slovenia5.4Netherlands3.6Iran,IslamicRepublicof3.2Armenia1.9TW·hNote:ThenuclearelectricityproductioninTaiwan,China,was26.8TW·h.13WorldFIGURE2.SHAREOFNUCLEARINTOTALELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONINTHEWORLDIN2021020406080100France69.0Ukraine55.0Slovakia52.3Belgium50.8Hungary44.7Slovenia36.9CzechRepublic36.6Bulgaria34.6Finland32.8Sweden31.4Switzerland29.5Korea,Republicof26.5Armenia25.3Spain20.8UnitedStatesofAmerica19.6RussianFederation19.2Romania19.0UnitedKingdom14.8Canada14.3Belarus14.1Germany11.9Pakistan10.6Argentina7.2Japan5.1China5.0Mexico3.4SouthAfrica3.4Netherlands3.1India2.8Brazil2.4UnitedArabEmirates1.3Iran,IslamicRepublicof1.0NuclearShare(%)Note:TheshareofnuclearinthetotalelectricityproductionofTaiwan,China,was9.5%.14WorldFinalEnergyConsumptionSince1980fossilfuelshavecontinuedtodominatefinalenergyconsumption,althoughtherehasbeenagradualreductionintheircombinedsharefrom74%in1980to66%in2021.Theshareofcoaldeclinedslightlyfrom1980to2000andincreasedfrom2000to2010andhassincedeclinedagain.Naturalgashasmaintainedaconsistentshareofabout15%.Theshareofoilhasdeclinedslightlysince1980,stabilizingatabout40%since2010.Theshareofelectricityhasundergonethemostsignificantchangesince1980,increasingby9percentagepoints,withconsumptiongrowingatanaverageannualrateofabout3%.Lookingtothefuture,electricityconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasefasterthanfinalenergyconsumption,thusitisanticipatedthattheshareofelectricitywillcontinuetogrow.FIGURE3.WORLDFINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONBYENERGYSOURCE010020030040050019801990200020102021EJCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteElectricityHeat15WorldFIGURE4.WORLDTOTALELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONBYENERGYSOURCE05000100001500020000250003000019801990200020102021TW·hCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteHydroNuclearWindSolarOtherElectricityProductionWithashareofmorethan60%,fossilfuels—particularlycoal—haveremaineddominantsourcesofelectricityproductionsince1980,despiteincreasesinthecombinedshareofnuclearandrenewablesovertheyears.Theshareofnaturalgashasincreasedmorethan10percentagepointssince1980.Theshareofcoalremainedaround40%until2010buthassincegraduallydecreasedbyafewpercentagepoints.Ofallfossilfuels,theshareofoilhasexperiencedthemostsignificantchange,decreasingfromabout20%in1980toabout2%in2021.Hydroremainsthelargestcontributoroflowcarbonelectricity,accountingfor16%,althoughitssharehasdecreasedbyabout4percentagepointssince1980.Inrecentyears,theshareofsolarandwindhasundergonearapidincrease,risingfromlessthan1%in1980to9%in2021.Theshareofnucleargrewrapidlyfrom1980to1990,almostdoubling,buthasdeclinedsince2000.16WorldEnergyandElectricityProjections●Finalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout12%from2021levelsby2030andbyabout27%by2050,atanaverageannualrateofapproximately1%.●Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtogrowatafasterrateofabout2.4%peryear.Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtodoubleby2050.●By2050theshareofelectricityinfinalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout10percentagepointsfromits2021share.17WorldFIGURE5.WORLDFINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITY20212050ElectricityEnergy5EJTABLE2.WORLDFINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITY,EJFinalConsumption2021203020402050EnergyElectricity422.482.3Electricityas%ofEnergy19.5%471.2105.522.4%498.3132.126.5%535.1159.629.8%18WorldNuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections●Totalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtoincreasebyabout23%by2030andthendoubleby2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoincreasebyabout23%by2030andmorethandoubleby2050comparedwith2021capacity.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtodeclinebyabout2%by2030andthenincreasebyabout3.5%by2050.●Inthelowcase,theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtodecreaseby2050.Areductionofabout2.4percentagepointsisexpected.Inthehighcase,theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtoincreasebyhalfofapercentagepointby2050.19WorldFIGURE6.WORLDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITY9008007006005004003002001000GW(e)2021203020402050TABLE3.WORLDTOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITY,GW(e)ElectricalCapacity2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear8208390Nuclearas%ofElectricalCapacity4.8%10079381100794793.8%4.8%12841392128416763.1%5.3%16590404165908732.4%5.3%20WorldReactorRetirementsandAdditions●Twooutofeverythreenuclearpowerreactorshavebeeninoperationformorethan30yearsandarescheduledforretirementintheforeseeablefuture.●Inthehighcase,itisassumedthattheoperatinglifeofseveralnuclearpowerreactorsscheduledforretirementwillbeextendedsuchthatonlyabout8%ofthe2021nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisretiredby2030.Thisisexpectedtoresultinnetcapacityadditions(newlyinstalledlessretired)ofabout90GW(e)by2030andmorethan390GW(e)overthesubsequent20years.●Inthelowcase,itisassumedthatabout18%ofexistingnuclearpowerreactorswillberetiredby2030,whilenewreactorswilladdabout60GW(e)ofcapacity.Between2030and2050itisexpectedthatcapacityadditionsofnewreactorswillslightlyexceedretirements.21WorldFIGURE7.WORLDNUCLEARCAPACITY:ACTUAL,RETIREMENTSANDADDITIONSHIGHCASE9008007006005004003002001000GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions2050LOWCASE9008007006005004003002001000GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions205022WorldElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections●Totalelectricityproductionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout23%by2030andby85%by2050comparedwith2021levels.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout40%fromthe2021levelby2030andbymorethan2.5‑foldby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtoincreasebymorethan3percentagepoints.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout12%fromthe2021levelby2030,risingto29%by2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtodeclinebyabout3percentagepoints.23WorldFIGURE8.WORLDNUCLEARELECTRICITYPRODUCTION70006000500040003000200010000TW·h2021203020402050TABLE4.WORLDTOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALPRODUCTION,TW·hElectricityProduction2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear270072653Nuclearas%ofElectricityProduction9.8%3327529633327537248.9%11.2%4150831694150853367.6%12.9%5007134355007170106.9%14.0%24WorldTABLE5.WORLDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITY,GW(e)Region2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighWorldTotal389.5381479392676404873NorthernAmerica109.1861106311040124LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean5.1669161225Northern,WesternandSouthernEurope99.684907011243133EasternEurope53.05362559363104Africa1.923812921WesternAsia3.28912191424SouthernAsia10.0182932494778CentralandEasternAsia107.7124170142260173347South-easternAsia15315Oceania225WorldTABLE6.WORLDNUCLEARELECTRICITYPRODUCTION,TW·hRegion2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighWorldTotal2653.1296337243169533634357010NorthernAmerica858.46998965159083261031LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean35.742466512392197Northern,WesternandSouthernEurope674.46787275809283531092EasternEurope379.8399465425707492816Africa12.21322578469151WesternAsia12.0566491141112189SouthernAsia58.8132211239361370609CentralandEasternAsia621.894312931188204715972793South-easternAsia83724118Oceania14millionpeople375NorthernAmericaofelectricityproducedbynuclearofelectricityproducedoffinalenergyconsumedwaselectricityEnergyOverview202117.9%4800TW∙h22.0%28NorthernAmericaFinalEnergyConsumptionSince1980,theshareoffossilfuelsinfinalenergyconsumptionhasremainedabove70%,withaslightreductionfrom82%in1980to72%in2021.Ofallfossilfuels,oilhasthelargestshare,havingremainedatabout50%since1980.In2021theshareofoildecreasedto47%.Withashareof24%,naturalgaswasthesecondlargestenergysourcein2021.Itssharehasremainedrelativelystablesince1980.From1980to2010,theshareofelectricitygraduallyincreasedby8percentagepoints.Itssharein2021was22%offinalenergyconsumption.FIGURE9.FINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHENORTHERNAMERICAREGION02040608019801990200020102021EJCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteElectricityHeat29NorthernAmericaFIGURE10.ELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHENORTHERNAMERICAREGION010002000300040005000600019801990200020102021TW·hCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteHydroNuclearWindSolarOtherElectricityProductionFossilfuelscontributedmorethanhalfoftheelectricityproducedin2021.Theshareofcoalhasdecreasedbymorethanhalfsince1980,whereastheshareofnaturalgashasmorethandoubled.Theshareofoilhasdecreasedfrom10%in1980toaround1%in2021.Nuclearisthelargestlowcarbonenergysource.Itssharenearlydoubledfrom1980to1990andhasremainedstableatabout18%since1990.Theshareofhydrohasdecreasedbyabout6percentagepointsoverthepast40years.Theshareofwindhasrapidlyincreasedsince2000,exceeding8%by2021.Inrecentyears,theshareofsolarhasalsoundergonearapidincrease,risingfromlessthan1%in2010to3%in2021.30NorthernAmericaEnergyandElectricityProjections●Finalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtodecreasebyabout5%by2040andthenstayalmostconstantupto2050.●Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtocontinuetogrow.By2030itisprojectedtoincreaseby11%from2021levels,reachinganincreaseofabout44%by2050.●Theshareofelectricityinfinalconsumptionofenergyisexpectedtograduallyincreasebyabout11percentagepointsby2050.31NorthernAmericaFIGURE11.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHENORTHERNAMERICAREGION20212050ElectricityEnergy1EJTABLE7.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHENORTHERNAMERICAREGION,EJFinalConsumption2021203020402050EnergyElectricity70.015.4Electricityas%ofEnergy22.0%68.317.125.0%66.919.529.1%66.822.133.1%32NorthernAmericaNuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections●Totalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoincreasebyalmost5%by2030andbyabout40%by2050.●Asignificantreductioninnuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedoverthenextthreedecadesforthelowcase,whereasthehighcaseisexpectedtoremainrelativelystableuntil2040withaconsiderableincreaseby2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoremainroughlyconstantuntil2040,withanincreaseofabout14%by2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalcapacityisexpectedtoremainstableuntil2030andthendecreasebymorethan1percentagepointby2050.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtodecreasebyabout20%fromcurrentlevelsby2030andtobearoundonethirdofcurrentcapacityby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalcapacityisprojectedtodecreasebyabout2percentagepointsby2030andbyalmost6percentagepointsby2050.33NorthernAmericaFIGURE12.NUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHENORTHERNAMERICAREGION140120100806040200GW(e)2021203020402050TABLE8.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHENORTHERNAMERICAREGION,GW(e)ElectricalCapacity2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear1428109Nuclearas%ofElectricalCapacity7.6%14958614951105.8%7.4%16286316281103.9%6.8%19904019901242.0%6.2%34NorthernAmericaReactorRetirementsandAdditions●Inthehighcase,anetincreaseinnuclearcapacityof1GW(e)isexpectedby2030.Between2030and2050itisexpectedthatcapacityadditionsofnewreactorswillexceedretirementsby14GW(e).●Inthelowcase,itisassumedthatabout20%ofnuclearpowerreactorswillberetiredby2030,withnoreactoradditions.Between2030and2050itisexpectedthatsignificantlymorecapacitywillberetiredthanisadded,resultinginanetreductionincapacityofalmost50GW(e).35NorthernAmericaFIGURE13.NUCLEARCAPACITYINTHENORTHERNAMERICAREGION:ACTUAL,RETIREMENTSANDADDITIONSHIGHCASE140120100806040200GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions2050LOWCASE140120100806040200GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions205036NorthernAmericaElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections●Totalelectricityproductionisprojectedtoincreaseabout11%by2030andisexpectedtobeabout43%higherthan2021productionlevelsby2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisprojectedtoincreaseabout4.5%by2030andisexpectedtobeabout20%higherthan2021productionlevelsby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtodecrease,butlessthaninthelowcase,withareductionofabout1percentagepointby2030andalmost3percentagepointsby2050.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisprojectedtodecreaseby19%from2021levelsby2030andbyalmosttwothirdsby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtodecreasebyabout5percentagepointsby2030and13percentagepointsby2050.37NorthernAmericaFIGURE14.NUCLEARELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONINTHENORTHERNAMERICAREGION110010009008007006005004003002001000TW·h2021203020402050TABLE9.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALPRODUCTIONINTHENORTHERNAMERICAREGION,TW·hElectricityProduction2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear4800858Nuclearas%ofElectricityProduction17.9%5334699533489613.1%16.8%609151560919088.5%14.9%6883326688310314.7%15.0%millionpeople654LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanofelectricityproducedbynuclearofelectricityproducedoffinalenergyconsumedwaselectricityEnergyOverview20212.1%1679TW∙h20.0%40LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanFinalEnergyConsumptionFrom1980to2000theshareoffossilfuelsinfinalenergyconsumptionincreasedslightly,butsince2000ithasgraduallydecreased.Thecombinedshareoffossilfuelsin2021wasabout60%.Oilaccountedforabout46%offinalenergyconsumptionin2021,althoughitssharehasdecreasedbyabout9percentagepointssince1980.Theshareofnaturalgashasrisenbyafewpercentagepointsoverthepast40yearsbutdeclinedin2021.Theshareofcoalhasremainedsmallatabout3%.Theshareofelectricityhasundergonethemostsignificantchange,morethandoublingsince1980.FIGURE15.FINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHELATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANREGION05101520253019801990200020102021EJCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteElectricityHeat41LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanFIGURE16.ELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHELATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANREGION050010001500200019801990200020102021TW·hCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteHydroNuclearWindSolarOtherElectricityProductionSince1980hydrohasbeenthelargestsourceofelectricity;itsproductionhasincreasedthroughoutthisperiod,althoughitssharehasdecreasedbyabout18percentagepoints.In2000,otherrenewablesstartedcontributingtoelectricityproduction.In2021thecombinedshareofotherrenewablesexceeded16%.Ofallfossilfuels,naturalgasaccountedforthelargestshareofelectricityproductionin2021,havingdisplacedoilasthelargestsourceafter2000.Theshareofnaturalgashasundergoneanalmostthreefoldincreaseoverthepast40years.Theshareofcoalhasmorethandoubledsince1980,whereastheshareofoilhassteadilydecreasedbyalmost20percentagepoints.Theshareofnuclearhasincreasedalmostfourfoldsince1980,althoughitsoverallsharehasremainedrelativelysmallandwasjustover2%in2021.42LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanEnergyandElectricityProjections●Finalconsumptionofenergyisexpectedtoincreasebyabout21%from2021levelsby2030andby40%by2050,atanaverageannualrateofabout1.2%.●Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtogrowatafasterrateofabout3%peryear,morethandoublingoverthenext29years.●By2050theshareofelectricityinfinalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout11percentagepointsfromits2021share.43LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanFIGURE17.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHELATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANREGION20212050ElectricityEnergy1EJTABLE10.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHELATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANREGION,EJFinalConsumption2021203020402050EnergyElectricity24.54.9Electricityas%ofEnergy20.0%29.76.321.2%31.98.326.0%34.310.530.6%44LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanNuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections●Totalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoincreasebyabout19%by2030andtoalmostdoubleby2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoincreasefivefoldby2050,withitsshareoftotalelectricalcapacitygrowingby1.6percentagepoints.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtotripleoverthenext29years,althoughitsshareintotalelectricalcapacityisexpectedtoremainnearlyconstant.45LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanFIGURE18.NUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHELATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANREGION302520151050GW(e)2021203020402050TABLE11.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHELATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANREGION,GW(e)ElectricalCapacity2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear4955.1Nuclearas%ofElectricalCapacity1.0%589658961.0%1.0%7319731161.2%2.2%95912959251.3%2.6%46LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanReactorRetirementsandAdditions●Inthehighcase,noreactorretirementsareexpectedby2030anditisassumedthatjustover1GW(e)ofcapacitywillbeadded.Between2030and2050itisexpectedthattherewillbeasignificantnumberofadditionswithonlyafewretirements,resultinginanetincreaseincapacityofalmost19GW(e).●Inthelowcase,itisassumedthattherewillbeanetincreaseincapacityofabout1GW(e)by2030aswell,andnoreactorsareexpectedtoberetired.Between2030and2050itisexpectedthattherewillbemorecapacityaddedthanretired,resultinginanetincreaseincapacityof6GW(e).47LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanFIGURE19.NUCLEARCAPACITYINTHELATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANREGION:ACTUAL,RETIREMENTSANDADDITIONSHIGHCASE302520151050GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions2050LOWCASE302520151050GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions205048LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections●Totalelectricityproductionisprojectedtorisesignificantlyby2030,withanincreaseofabout25%from2021levels.Itisexpectedtomorethandoubleby2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisprojectedtoriseabout28%by2030andtoincreasemorethan5.5-foldoverthesubsequent20years.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtograduallyincrease,nearlytriplingby2050.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisprojectedtoincreasebyabout17%by2030andtomorethandoubleoverthesubsequent20years.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtorisebyabouthalfofapercentagepointby2050.49LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanFIGURE20.NUCLEARELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONINTHELATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANREGION200180160140120100806040200TW·h2021203020402050TABLE12.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALPRODUCTIONINTHELATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANREGION,TW·hElectricityProduction2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear167936Nuclearas%ofElectricityProduction2.1%2094422094462.0%2.2%27086527081232.4%4.5%33959233951972.7%5.8%millionpeople454Northern,WesternandSouthernEuropeofelectricityproducedbynuclearofelectricityproducedoffinalenergyconsumedwaselectricityEnergyOverview202122.5%2989TW∙h21.0%52Northern,WesternandSouthernEuropeFIGURE21.FINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFNORTHERN,WESTERNANDSOUTHERNEUROPE0102030405019801990200020102021EJCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteElectricityHeatFinalEnergyConsumptionSince1980fossilfuelshavecontinuedtodominatefinalenergyconsumption,althoughtherehasbeenagradualreductionintheircombinedshare,whichfellabout17percentagepointstoabout65%in2021.Ofallfossilfuels,oilhasthelargestshare,althoughitssharehasbeendecliningoverthepast40years.In2021theshareofoilremainedsignificantatabout39%.Theshareofnaturalgashasincreasedbyabout5percentagepointssince1980.Itaccountedforoveronefifthofthefinalenergyconsumedin2021.Theshareofcoalhasdecreasedbyabout8percentagepointsoverthepast40years,butitssharehasremainedat3­–4%since2010.In2021theshareofelectricityinfinalenergyconsumptionwas21%,anincreaseofalmost7percentagepointssince1980.53Northern,WesternandSouthernEuropeFIGURE22.ELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFNORTHERN,WESTERNANDSOUTHERNEUROPE050010001500200025003000350019801990200020102021TW·hCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteHydroNuclearWindSolarOtherElectricityProductionInthepast40yearsthecombinedshareoffossilfuelsinelectricityproductionhaseffectivelydecreasedbyhalf.Aboutonethirdofelectricitywasproducedbyfossilfuelsin2021,withnaturalgasbeingthelargestcontributoratabout20%.Theshareofnaturalgashaseffectivelytripledsince1980,whereasthatofoilhasdeclinedfromalmost20%in1980to1.6%in2021.Since1980theshareofcoalinelectricityproductionhasfallenfromalmost40%toabout13%in2021.Nuclearisthelargestcontributoroflowcarbonelectricityproduction.Itssharemorethandoubledfrom1980to1990andthendecreasedbyabout8percentagepointsfrom2000to2021toashareofabout23%.Overthepast40yearstheshareofhydrohasdecreasedslightlybyabout5percentagepoints.In2021itwasaround17%.Windandsolardidnotcontributesignificantlytoelectricityproductionin1980.Thecontributionsoftheseenergysourceshavesinceincreasedsubstantiallytoacombinedshareof20%in2021.54Northern,WesternandSouthernEuropeEnergyandElectricityProjections●Finalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtodecreasebyabout19%by2050,atanaverageannualrateofapproximately0.7%.●Electricityconsumptionisprojectedtoincreasebyabout27%by2050,atanaverageannualrateofapproximately0.8%.●Theshareofelectricityinfinalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout12percentagepoints.55Northern,WesternandSouthernEuropeFIGURE23.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFNORTHERN,WESTERNANDSOUTHERNEUROPE20212050ElectricityEnergy1EJTABLE13.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFNORTHERN,WESTERNANDSOUTHERNEUROPE,EJFinalConsumption2021203020402050EnergyElectricity42.99.0Electricityas%ofEnergy21.0%41.110.425.3%37.210.929.3%34.911.432.7%56Northern,WesternandSouthernEuropeNuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections●Totalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoincreasealmost11%by2030andbyonehalfby2050comparedwith2021capacity.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtodecreaseby2030,buttoalesserextentthaninthelowcase,andthentogrowsignificantlyby2050,withanincreaseofaboutonethirdover2021capacity.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalcapacityisexpectedtodecreaseabout1percentagepointby2050.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtodecreasebyalmost60%by2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalcapacityisexpectedtodeclinebyalmost7percentagepoints.57Northern,WesternandSouthernEuropeFIGURE24.NUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFNORTHERN,WESTERNANDSOUTHERNEUROPE140120100806040200GW(e)2021203020402050TABLE14.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFNORTHERN,WESTERNANDSOUTHERNEUROPE,GW(e)ElectricalCapacity2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear1042100Nuclearas%ofElectricalCapacity9.6%1152841152907.3%7.8%12447012441125.6%9.0%15314315311332.8%8.7%58Northern,WesternandSouthernEuropeReactorRetirementsandAdditions●Inthehighcase,itisassumedthattherewillbeanetdecreaseincapacityby2030owingtomoreretirementsthanadditionsofcapacityinthisperiod.Capacityisexpectedtodecreasebyabout10GW(e).From2030until2050anetincreaseofabout43GW(e)isexpected.●Inthelowcase,itisassumedthattherewillbeanetdecreaseincapacityof16GW(e)by2030,asmoreretirementsareexpectedthaninthehighcase.Between2030and2050afurtherreductionof41GW(e)isexpected.59Northern,WesternandSouthernEuropeFIGURE25.NUCLEARCAPACITYINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFNORTHERN,WESTERNANDSOUTHERNEUROPE:ACTUAL,RETIREMENTSANDADDITIONSHIGHCASE140120100806040200GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions2050LOWCASE140120100806040200GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions205060Northern,WesternandSouthernEuropeElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections●Totalelectricityproductionisprojectedtoincreasebyabout8%by2030and18%by2050,comparedwith2021productionlevels.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisprojectedtoincreaseby8%by2030and62%by2050,comparedwith2021productionlevels.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout8percentagepointsby2050.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisprojectedtochangeonlyslightlyby2030,butby2050itisexpectedtodecreasebyabout48%.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtodeclinebymorethan12percentagepointsby2050.61Northern,WesternandSouthernEuropeFIGURE26.NUCLEARELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFNORTHERN,WESTERNANDSOUTHERNEUROPE120010008006004002000TW·h2021203020402050TABLE15.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALPRODUCTIONINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFNORTHERN,WESTERNANDSOUTHERNEUROPE,TW·hElectricityProduction2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear2989674Nuclearas%ofElectricityProduction22.5%3217678321772721.1%22.6%3352580335292817.3%27.7%35273533527109210.0%31.0%millionpeople292EasternEuropeofelectricityproducedbynuclearofelectricityproducedoffinalenergyconsumedwaselectricityEnergyOverview202223.9%1591TW∙h14.2%64EasternEuropeFinalEnergyConsumptionSince1980fossilfuelshaveaccountedforthelargestshareoffinalenergyconsumption.Between1980and2000thecombinedshareoffossilfuelsdeclinedbyaround20percentagepoints.However,from2000onwardstherehasbeenagradualincreasetoabout64%in2021.Oilhasthelargestshareofallfossilfuels,althoughitssharehasdeclinedbyabout4percentagepointsoverthepast40years.Incontrast,theshareofnaturalgashasincreasedbyabout6percentagepointssince1980.Theshareofcoalhasalsodeclinedandin2021wasalmostonethirdofits1980share.Theshareofelectricityhasincreasedgraduallybyabout4percentagepointsovertheyears.Withalmostadoublingofitssharesince1980,heathasseenthemostsignificantchangeofallenergysources.FIGURE27.FINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHEEASTERNEUROPEREGION0102030405019801990200020102021EJCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteElectricityHeat65EasternEuropeFIGURE28.ELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHEEASTERNEUROPEREGION0500100015002000250019801990200020102021TW·hCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteHydroNuclearWindSolarOtherElectricityProductionAlthoughtheircombinedsharehasdeclinedbymorethan20percentagepointssince1980,fossilfuelsremainthedominantsourcesofelectricityproduction,withashareofabout57%in2021.Overtheyearstheshareofnaturalgashasalmostdoubled.In2021morethanonethirdoftheelectricityproducedwasfromnaturalgas.Theshareofoilhasdroppedsignificantly,fromalmost23%in1980tolessthan1%in2021.Coalcontributedabout23%ofelectricityproductionin2021,downfrom40%in1980.Theshareofnuclearhasquadrupledsince1980,andnuclearaccountedfor24%oftheelectricityproducedin2021.Theshareofhydrohasremainedrelativelystablethroughouttheyearsatabout12–14%.Thecombinedshareofsolarandwindremainedsmallatabout3%in2021,althoughin1980thesesourcesdidnotcontributetoelectricityproductionatall.66EasternEuropeEnergyandElectricityProjections●Finalconsumptionofenergyisexpectedtoremainstableuntil2040andthenincreasebyonlyabout2.6%by2050comparedwith2021consumption,anaverageannualgrowthrateofapproximately0.1%.●Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtogrowatabout1.6%peryear,increasingbyabout57%by2050.●Theshareofelectricityinfinalconsumptionofenergyisexpectedtoincreasebyalmost8percentagepointsby2050.67EasternEuropeFIGURE29.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHEEASTERNEUROPEREGION20212050ElectricityEnergy1EJTABLE16.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHEEASTERNEUROPEREGION,EJFinalConsumption2021203020402050EnergyElectricity30.94.4Electricityas%ofEnergy14.2%30.85.116.6%30.96.119.7%31.76.921.8%68EasternEuropeNuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections●Totalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoincreasebyabout10%by2030and21%by2050comparedwith2021capacity.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoalmostdoubleby2050.However,itsshareoftotalelectricalcapacityisexpectedtoincreasebyonlyabout7percentagepoints.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoremainrelativelystableoverthenext20years,witha19%increaseexpectedby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalcapacityisnotexpectedtochangeby2050.69EasternEuropeFIGURE30.NUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHEEASTERNEUROPEREGION120100806040200GW(e)2021203020402050TABLE17.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHEEASTERNEUROPEREGION,GW(e)ElectricalCapacity2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear51153Nuclearas%ofElectricalCapacity10.4%56353563629.4%11.0%62655626938.8%14.9%6166361610410.2%16.9%70EasternEuropeReactorRetirementsandAdditions●Inthehighcase,itisassumedthattwiceasmuchcapacitywillbeaddedasretiredby2030,resultinginanetincreaseincapacityofmorethan9GW(e).Similarly,between2030and2050almostthreetimesasmuchcapacityisexpectedtobeaddedasretired,resultinginanetincreaseincapacityofalmost43GW(e).●Inthelowcase,itisassumedthattherewillbealmostthesamenumberofunitsretiredasaddedby2030.Between2030and2050slightlymorereactorsareexpectedtobeaddedthanretired,resultinginanetincreaseincapacityof10GW(e).71EasternEuropeFIGURE31.NUCLEARCAPACITYINTHEEASTERNEUROPEREGION:ACTUAL,RETIREMENTSANDADDITIONSHIGHCASE120100806040200GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions2050LOWCASE120100806040200GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions205072EasternEuropeElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections●Totalelectricityproductionisprojectedtoincreasebyabout11%by2030andbyabout37%by2050comparedwith2021production.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisprojectedtoriseby22%by2030comparedwith2021levelsandtomorethandoubleby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout13percentagepoints.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisprojectedtoincreaseby5%by2030comparedwith2021levels,andanincreaseof29%isexpectedby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtodeclinebylessthan2percentagepointsby2050.73EasternEuropeFIGURE32.NUCLEARELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONINTHEEASTERNEUROPEREGION9008007006005004003002001000TW·h2021203020402050TABLE18.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALPRODUCTIONINTHEEASTERNEUROPEREGION,TW·hElectricityProduction2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear1591380Nuclearas%ofElectricityProduction23.9%1763399176346522.6%26.4%1984425198470721.4%35.6%2186492218681622.5%37.3%millionpeople1377AfricaofelectricityproducedbynuclearofelectricityproducedoffinalenergyconsumedwaselectricityEnergyOverview20211.4%852TW∙h9.8%76AfricaFinalEnergyConsumptionBioenergyandwastehasaccountedforthelargestshareoffinalenergyconsumptionoverthepast40yearsataround50%.Thecombinedshareoffossilfuelshasbeenrelativelystablesince1980atabout40%.Theshareofnaturalgashasincreasedbyabout6percentagepointsoverthepast40years,whiletheshareofoilhasincreasedbyabout3percentagepoints.Theshareofcoalhasgraduallydecreasedbyabout7percentagepoints.Theshareofelectricityhasincreasedafewpercentagepointssince1980toreachalmost10%in2021.FIGURE33.FINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHEAFRICAREGION05101520253019801990200020102021EJCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteElectricityHeat77AfricaFIGURE34.ELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHEAFRICAREGION0200400600800100019801990200020102021TW·hCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteHydroNuclearWindSolarOtherElectricityProductionFrom1980until2010thecombinedshareoffossilfuelsinelectricityproductiongraduallyincreasedbyabout6percentagepoints.From2010to2021theircombinedsharedecreasedbythesameamountbutwasstill77%ofelectricityproductionin2021.Since1980theshareofnaturalgashassteadilyincreasedbyabout30percentagepoints,whereastheshareofcoalhasdeclinedalmost50%.Theshareofoilhasdecreasedbyabout5percentagepoints.Theshareofnuclearwasaround2–3%from1990to2010and1.4%in2021.Hydrowasthelargestcontributoroflowcarbonenergy,accountingformorethan17%ofelectricityproductionin2021,althoughitssharehasdecreasedbyabout10percentagepointsoverthepast40years.Theshareofwindandsolarhasincreasedslightlysince2000,risingfromlessthan1%toabout4%in2021.78AfricaEnergyandElectricityProjections●Finalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincrease16%from2021levelsby2030andby76%by2050,atanaverageannualrateofapproximately2%.●Electricityconsumptionwillgrowmuchfaster,atanaverageannualrateofapproximately5%,andisexpectedtoincreasemorethanfourfoldfrom2021levelsby2050.●Overthenext29yearstheshareofelectricityinfinalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtomorethandoublefromits2021share.79AfricaFIGURE35.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHEAFRICAREGION20212050ElectricityEnergy1EJTABLE19.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHEAFRICAREGION,EJFinalConsumption2021203020402050EnergyElectricity25.52.5Electricityas%ofEnergy9.8%29.53.913.2%35.76.718.8%44.910.924.3%80AfricaPerCapitaEnergyandElectricity●Onlyabout25%oftheelectricityproducedinAfricaisconsumedbytheresidentialsector.●Electricityconsumptiononapercapitabasisisexpectedtomorethandoublefrom0.5MW·hperpersonin2021to1.2MW·hperpersonin2050.Thiswouldbeenoughelectricitytopoweronehighefficiencymodern(circa2020)washingmachineoronesmallhighefficiency(induction)electricstovefor30minutesperday.●In2010theworldaverageelectricityconsumptionforhouseholdswithelectricityaccesswasabout3.5MW·h,almostsixtimesthatfortheresidentialsectorinAfricain2021.81AfricaFIGURE36.PERCAPITAELECTRICITYCONSUMPTIONINTHEAFRICAREGION1.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0MW·h2021203020402050FIGURE37.PERCAPITAFINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONINTHEAFRICAREGION20181614121086420GJ202120302040205082AfricaNuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections●Totalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtoincreaseby51%by2030andtoundergoafourfoldincreaseby2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoincreaseby58%by2030andtoundergomorethanan11-foldincreaseby2050comparedwith2021capacity.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoremainconstantto2030,andby2050itisexpectedtoundergoclosetoafivefoldincreasecomparedwith2021levels.83AfricaFIGURE38.NUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHEAFRICAREGION2520151050GW(e)2021203020402050TABLE20.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHEAFRICAREGION,GW(e)ElectricalCapacity2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear2501.9Nuclearas%ofElectricalCapacity0.8%378237830.5%0.8%6178617121.3%1.9%102891028210.9%2.0%84AfricaElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections●Totalelectricityproductionisprojectedtoincreaseby51%by2030andtoincreasemorethanfourfoldby2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisexpectedtoalmostdoublefrom2021levelsby2030andtoincreasemorethan12-foldby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtomorethantriple.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisexpectedtoremainalmostthesameto2030andtoincreaseaboutsixfoldby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtodeclineslightlyby2030,increasingagainthereaftertoreach2%by2050.85AfricaFIGURE39.NUCLEARELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONINTHEAFRICAREGION160140120100806040200TW·h2021203020402050TABLE21.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALPRODUCTIONINTHEAFRICAREGION,TW·hElectricityProduction2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear85212Nuclearas%ofElectricityProduction1.4%1285131285221.0%1.7%2205572205842.6%3.8%35336935331512.0%4.3%millionpeople288WesternAsiaofelectricityproducedbynuclearofelectricityproducedoffinalenergyconsumedwaselectricityEnergyOverview20210.9%1266TW∙h19.7%88WesternAsiaFinalEnergyConsumptionFossilfuelshavecontinuedtodominatefinalenergyconsumption,withastableshareofabout80%since1980.Atabout50%in2021,oilhadthelargestshareoffinalenergyofallfossilfuels,despiteareductionof19percentagepointssince1980.Theshareofnaturalgashasincreasedsteadilysince1980andwasthesecondlargest,accountingformorethanaquarteroffinalenergyconsumptionin2021.Theshareofcoalwaslessthan4%in2021,remainingrelativelysmallanddecreasingbyafewpercentagepointssince1980.Atabout20%in2021,theshareofelectricityinfinalenergyconsumptionhasmorethandoubledsince1980.Theshareofbioenergyandwasteinfinalenergyconsumptionhasdeclinedgraduallyovertheyears,decreasingfromabout9%in1980tolessthan1%in2021.FIGURE40.FINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHEWESTERNASIAREGION0510152019801990200020102021EJCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteElectricityHeat89WesternAsiaFIGURE41.ELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHEWESTERNASIAREGION020040060080010001200140019801990200020102021TW·hCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteHydroNuclearWindSolarOtherElectricityProductionWithashareofalmost90%,fossilfuels—particularlynaturalgas—haveremaineddominantsourcesofelectricityproductionsince1980.Hydroremainsthelargestcontributoroflowcarbonelectricity,accountingforabout6%oftotalproduction,althoughitssharehasdeclinedbymorethanhalfsince1980.Theshareofnuclearinelectricityproductionremainssmallatabout1%.Inrecentyears,solarandwindhavebegungeneratingelectricity,andin2021theircombinedsharewasmorethan3%.90WesternAsiaEnergyandElectricityProjections●Finalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasefrom2021levelsbyabout9%by2030andabout26%by2050,atanaverageannualrateofapproximately0.8%.●Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtogrowatafasterrateofabout2.8%peryear.Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtomorethandoubleby2050.●By2050theshareofelectricityinfinalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreaseby15percentagepointsfromits2021share.91WesternAsiaFIGURE42.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHEWESTERNASIAREGION20212050ElectricityEnergy1EJTABLE22.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHEWESTERNASIAREGION,EJFinalConsumption2021203020402050EnergyElectricity19.83.9Electricityas%ofEnergy19.7%21.55.324.7%22.76.930.4%24.88.634.7%92WesternAsiaNuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections●Totalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtoincreasebyabout32%by2030andabout160%by2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoundergoanalmostthreefoldincreaseby2030andaboutaneightfoldincreaseby2050comparedwith2021capacity.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoincreasealmostthreefoldby2030andmorethanafourfoldby2050comparedwith2021capacity.●Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtoincreaseby2050inboththehighandthelowcase.93WesternAsiaFIGURE43.NUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHEWESTERNASIAREGION2520151050GW(e)2021203020402050TABLE23.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHEWESTERNASIAREGION,GW(e)ElectricalCapacity2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear3993.2Nuclearas%ofElectricalCapacity0.8%525852591.5%1.7%71612716191.7%2.7%1023141023241.4%2.3%94WesternAsiaElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections●Totalelectricityproductionisprojectedtoincreasebyabout36%by2030andtomorethandoubleby2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisexpectedtoundergoamorethanfivefoldincreasefrom2021levelsby2030andanalmost16‑foldincreaseby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout6percentagepoints.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisexpectedtoundergoanalmostfivefoldincreasefrom2021levelsby2030,risingtomorethananinefoldincreaseby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout3percentagepoints.95WesternAsiaFIGURE44.NUCLEARELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONINTHEWESTERNASIAREGION200180160140120100806040200TW·h2021203020402050TABLE24.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALPRODUCTIONINTHEWESTERNASIAREGION,TW·hElectricityProduction2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear126612Nuclearas%ofElectricityProduction0.9%1717561717643.3%3.7%22569122561414.0%6.2%281711228171894.0%6.7%millionpeople1980SouthernAsiaofelectricityproducedbynuclearofelectricityproducedoffinalenergyconsumedwaselectricityEnergyOverview20212.7%2188TW∙h14.8%98SouthernAsiaFinalEnergyConsumptionSince1980theshareoffossilfuelsinfinalenergyconsumptionhasbeenincreasingsteadilyfromapproximately40%in1980tomorethan62%in2021.Theshareofnaturalgashasincreasedfromlessthan3%in1980toabout16%in2021.Theshareofoilhasalsobeengraduallyincreasing,accountingforalmostonethirdoffinalenergyconsumptionin2021,whichisanincreaseofabout8percentagepointssince1980.Coalhasremainedrelativelystablewithashareofabout12–14%.In2021theshareofelectricitywasabout15%,morethantriplingsince1980.Theshareofbioenergyandwastehasdeclinedbymorethanhalfsince1980,reachingabout23%in2021.FIGURE45.FINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHESOUTHERNASIAREGION0102030405019801990200020102021EJCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteElectricityHeat99SouthernAsiaFIGURE46.ELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHESOUTHERNASIAREGION0500100015002000250019801990200020102021TW·hCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteHydroNuclearWindSolarOtherElectricityProductionFrom1980to2000,fossilfuelsincreasedtheirshareofelectricityproductionfromabout60%tomorethan80%.Theirsharehassincedeclinedtoabout74%in2021.Coalisthelargestsourceofelectricitywithashareof60%,anincreaseofabout24percentagepointssince1980.Theshareofnaturalgashasincreasedsince1980,accountingforabout10%oftheelectricityproducedin2021.Theshareofoilhasdecreased9percentagepointssince1980toabout4%in2021.Hydroremainsthelargestcontributoroflowcarbonelectricity,accountingfor13%oftotalproduction,althoughitssharehasdecreasedbyabout26percentagepointssince1980.Inrecentyears,theshareofsolarandwindhasundergonearapidincrease,risingfromlessthan1%in2000tomorethan7%in2021.Theshareofnuclearwasabout3%in2021.100SouthernAsiaEnergyandElectricityProjections●Finalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout40%from2021levelsby2030andtodoubleby2050,atanaverageannualrateofapproximately2.5%.●Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtogrowatafasterrateof4.4%peryear.Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtomorethantripleby2050.●By2050theshareofelectricityinfinalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreaseby10percentagepointsfromits2021share.101SouthernAsiaFIGURE47.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHESOUTHERNASIAREGION20212050ElectricityEnergy1EJTABLE25.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHESOUTHERNASIAREGION,EJFinalConsumption2021203020402050EnergyElectricity43.26.4Electricityas%ofEnergy14.8%60.610.717.7%74.716.121.6%89.322.124.7%102SouthernAsiaNuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections●Totalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtonearlydoubleby2030andtoincreasefivefoldby2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtotripleby2030andtoundergoaneightfoldincreaseby2050comparedwith2021capacity.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtoincreasebyabout1percentagepointby2050.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoalmostdoubleby2030andincreasefivefoldby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtoremainroughlyatthe2021level.103SouthernAsiaFIGURE48.NUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHESOUTHERNASIAREGION80706050403020100GW(e)2021203020402050TABLE26.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHESOUTHERNASIAREGION,GW(e)ElectricalCapacity2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear59710Nuclearas%ofElectricalCapacity1.7%1127181127291.6%2.6%1806321806491.8%2.7%3014473014781.6%2.6%104SouthernAsiaReactorRetirementsandAdditions●Inthehighcase,itisassumedthatonlyabout6%ofthe2021nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacitywillberetiredby2030andthat20%ofthe2021nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacitywillberetiredby2050.Thisisexpectedtocontributetonetcapacityadditionsofabout19GW(e)by2030and49GW(e)overthesubsequent20years.●Inthelowcase,itisassumedtherewillbeabout8GW(e)ofnetcapacityaddedby2030.Between2030and2050itisexpectedthatnewreactorswilladdabout30GW(e)ofcapacityandonlyafewGW(e)ofcapacitywillberetired.105SouthernAsiaFIGURE49.NUCLEARCAPACITYINTHESOUTHERNASIAREGION:ACTUAL,RETIREMENTSANDADDITIONSHIGHCASE80706050403020100GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions2050LOWCASE80706050403020100GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions2050106SouthernAsiaElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections●Totalelectricalproductionisprojectedtoincreaseby63%by2030andbymorethanthreefoldby2050comparedwith2021production.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisexpectedtomorethantriplefrom2021levelsby2030andtoincreaseabouttenfoldby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout6percentagepoints.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisexpectedtomorethandoublefrom2021levelsby2030andtoincreasemorethansixfoldby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtonearlydouble.107SouthernAsiaFIGURE50.NUCLEARELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONINTHESOUTHERNASIAREGION7006005004003002001000TW·h2021203020402050TABLE27.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALPRODUCTIONINTHESOUTHERNASIAREGION,TW·hElectricityProduction2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear218859Nuclearas%ofElectricityProduction2.7%355613235562113.7%5.9%530323953033614.5%6.8%725337072536095.1%8.4%millionpeople1739CentralandEasternAsiaofelectricityproducedbynuclearofelectricityproducedoffinalenergyconsumedwaselectricityEnergyOverview20216.1%10208TW∙h24.5%110CentralandEasternAsiaFinalEnergyConsumptionSince1980fossilfuelshavedominatedfinalenergyconsumptionwithacombinedsharethathasremainedaround65–70%.Theshareofnaturalgashasincreasedfourfoldsince1980,whereasoilhasmaintainedarelativelyconsistentshareofabout30%.Theshareofcoalwasalmost28%in2021.Theshareofelectricityhasmorethandoubledsince1980,accountingforalmostaquarteroffinalenergyconsumptionin2021.Theshareofbioenergyandwasteinfinalenergyconsumptionhasdecreasedbyabout18percentagepointssince1980.Theshareofheathasincreasedfromlessthan1%in1980toalmost6%in2021.FIGURE51.FINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFCENTRALANDEASTERNASIA02040608010012014019801990200020102021EJCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteElectricityHeat111CentralandEasternAsiaFIGURE52.ELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFCENTRALANDEASTERNASIA020004000600080001000019801990200020102021TW·hCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteHydroNuclearWindSolarOtherElectricityProductionWithashareofabout70%,fossilfuels—particularlycoal—haveremaineddominantsourcesofelectricityproductionsince1980.Theshareofcoalhasincreasedmorethan35percentagepointssince1980.Theshareofnaturalgasincreasedfrom1980to1990andthendeclinedtoabout10%.Ofallfossilfuels,theshareofoilhasexperiencedthemostsignificantchange,decreasingfromabout42%in1980tobelow1%in2021.Hydrowasthelargestcontributoroflowcarbonelectricity,accountingfor15%oftotalproductionin2021.Itssharehasremainedrelativelystableoverthepast40years.Inrecentyears,theshareofsolarandwindhasincreasedrapidly,risingfromlessthan1%in2010tomorethan8%in2021.Theshareofnuclearincreasedbetween1980and2000buthassincedeclined,fallingtoabout6%in2021.112CentralandEasternAsiaEnergyandElectricityProjections●Finalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout10%from2021levelsby2030andbyabout15%by2050,atanaverageannualrateofapproximately0.5%.●Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtogrowatafasterrateofabout2%peryear.Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout74%from2021levelsby2050.●By2050theshareofelectricityinfinalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout12percentagepointsfromits2021share.113CentralandEasternAsiaFIGURE53.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFCENTRALANDEASTERNASIA20212050ElectricityEnergy1EJTABLE28.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFCENTRALANDEASTERNASIA,EJFinalConsumption2021203020402050EnergyElectricity127.731.3Electricityas%ofEnergy24.5%140.239.628.2%144.747.933.1%147.254.336.9%114CentralandEasternAsiaNuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections●Totalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtoincreasebyabout20%by2030andbymorethan70%by2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoincreasebyabout60%by2030andtomorethantripleby2050comparedwith2021capacity.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtoincreasebyabout3percentagepointsby2050.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoincreasebylessthan15%by2030andbyabout60%by2050comparedwith2021capacity.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtodecreaseslightlyby2050.115CentralandEasternAsiaFIGURE54.NUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFCENTRALANDEASTERNASIA350300250200150100500GW(e)2021203020402050TABLE29.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFCENTRALANDEASTERNASIA,GW(e)ElectricalCapacity2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear3077108Nuclearas%ofElectricalCapacity3.5%367812436781703.4%4.6%467114246712603.0%5.6%532417353243473.2%6.5%116CentralandEasternAsiaReactorRetirementsandAdditions●Inthehighcase,itisassumedthatabout2%ofthe2021nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacitywillberetiredby2030and15%willberetiredby2050.Thisisexpectedtoresultinnetcapacityadditionsofabout62GW(e)by2030andabout177GW(e)overthesubsequent20years.●Inthelowcase,itisassumedthatabout14%ofthe2021nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacitywillberetiredby2030,whilenewreactorswilladdabout30%capacity.Between2030and2050netcapacityadditionsofabout50GW(e)areexpected.117CentralandEasternAsiaFIGURE55.NUCLEARCAPACITYINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFCENTRALANDEASTERNASIA:ACTUAL,RETIREMENTSANDADDITIONSHIGHCASE350300250200150100500GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions2050LOWCASE350300250200150100500GW(e)2021RetirementsAdditions2030RetirementsAdditions2050118CentralandEasternAsiaElectricityandNuclearProductionProjections●Totalelectricityproductionisprojectedtoincreaseby62%by2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisexpectedtomorethandoublefrom2021levelsby2030andtoundergoa4.5-foldincreaseby2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout11percentagepoints.●Inthelowcase,nuclearelectricityproductionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout50%from2021levelsby2030andbyalmost160%by2050.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedincreasebymorethan3percentagepoints.119CentralandEasternAsiaFIGURE56.NUCLEARELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFCENTRALANDEASTERNASIA300025002000150010005000TW·h2021203020402050TABLE30.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALPRODUCTIONINTHECOMBINEDREGIONSOFCENTRALANDEASTERNASIA,TW·hElectricityProduction2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear10208622Nuclearas%ofElectricityProduction6.1%121019431210112937.8%10.7%1463211881463220478.1%14.0%1657615971657627939.6%16.8%millionpeople673South-easternAsiaofelectricityproducedbynuclearofelectricityproducedoffinalenergyconsumedwaselectricityEnergyOverview20210%1132TW∙h18.3%122South-easternAsiaFinalEnergyConsumptionFrom1980to1990,bioenergyandwasteaccountedforthelargestshareoffinalenergyconsumption.Since2000,fossilfuelshavedominatedfinalenergyconsumption,withoilhavingthelargestshareatabout47%.Theshareofcoalhasgraduallyincreasedoverthepast40years,reaching11%in2021,anincreaseof9percentagepoints.Theshareofnaturalgashasquadrupledsince1980,reachingalmost9%in2020.At18%in2021,electricity’ssharehasincreasedfourfoldsince1980.FIGURE57.FINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHESOUTH-EASTERNASIAREGION051015202519801990200020102021EJCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteElectricityHeat123South-easternAsiaFIGURE58.ELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHESOUTH-EASTERNASIAREGION02004006008001000120019801990200020102021TW·hCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteHydroNuclearWindSolarOtherElectricityProductionWithashareofabout80%overthepast40years,fossilfuelshaveremaineddominantsourcesofelectricityproduction.Theshareofcoalhasincreased35percentagepointssince1980andreachedalmost47%in2021,whereasoil’ssharehasdeclinedbysome70percentagepointstoabout2%in2021.Theshareofnaturalgashasincreasedabout30percentagepointssince1980.Hydroremainsthelargestcontributoroflowcarbonelectricity,accountingfor15%oftotalelectricityproductionin2021.Theshareof‘other’sources(mainlygeothermal)increasedbyabout1percentagepointbetween1980and2000,buthassincefallen,reachingabout1.5%in2021.Solarandwindhaverecentlybeguncontributingtoelectricitygeneration,accountingforslightlybelow2%in2021.124South-easternAsiaEnergyandElectricityProjections●Finalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout33%from2021levelsby2030andby75%by2050,atanaverageannualrateofapproximately2%.●Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtogrowatafasterrateof4.1%peryear.Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtomorethantripleby2050.●By2050theshareofelectricityinfinalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout15percentagepointsfromits2021share.125South-easternAsiaFIGURE59.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHESOUTH-EASTERNASIAREGION20212050ElectricityEnergy1EJTABLE31.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHESOUTH-EASTERNASIAREGION,EJFinalConsumption2021203020402050EnergyElectricity19.73.6Electricityas%ofEnergy18.3%26.26.022.9%29.08.529.3%34.511.533.3%126South-easternAsiaNuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections●Totalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtoincreasebyabout45%by2030andtoalmosttripleby2050.●Totalelectricityproductionisprojectedtoincreaseby66%by2030comparedwith2021productionlevelsandtomorethantripleby2050.●Inthehighcase,nuclearreactorsareprojectedtobeoperationalby2040andby2050nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtotriplecomparedwith2040capacity.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtoreachabout1.6%.●Inthelowcase,nuclearreactorsarealsoprojectedtobeoperationalby2040andby2050nuclearelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtotriplecomparedwith2040capacity.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricityproductionisexpectedtoreachabout0.3%.127South-easternAsiaTABLE32.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHESOUTH-EASTERNASIAREGION,GW(e)ElectricalCapacity2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear3150.0Nuclearas%ofElectricalCapacity0.0%458045800.0%0.0%671167150.1%0.7%9283928150.3%1.6%TABLE33.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALPRODUCTIONINTHESOUTH-EASTERNASIAREGION,TW·hElectricityProduction2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear11320Nuclearas%ofElectricityProduction0.0%18800188000.0%0.0%261282612370.3%1.4%34962434961180.7%3.4%millionpeople44OceaniaofelectricityproducedbynuclearofelectricityproducedoffinalenergyconsumedwaselectricityEnergyOverview20210%302TW∙h22.0%130OceaniaFinalEnergyConsumptionSince1980fossilfuelshavecontinuedtodominatefinalenergyconsumption,althoughtherewasagradualreductionintheircombinedsharefrom76%in1980to69%in2010.Between2010and2021theircombinedshareincreasedby1percentagepoint.Oilhasthelargestshareofallthefossilfuels,havingremainedatabout50%since1990.Theshareofnaturalgashasremainedatabout15%since1990,whereascoal’ssharehasdeclinedbyalmost5percentagepointsduringthesameperiod.Theshareofelectricityismorethanonefifthoffinalenergyconsumption,anincreaseof8percentagepointssince1980.FIGURE60.FINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHEOCEANIAREGION01234519801990200020102021EJCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteElectricityHeat131OceaniaFIGURE61.ELECTRICITYPRODUCTIONBYENERGYSOURCEINTHEOCEANIAREGION05010015020025030035019801990200020102021TW·hCoalandPeatOilNaturalGasBioenergyandWasteHydroNuclearWindSolarOtherElectricityProductionWithashareofmorethan70%,fossilfuels—particularlycoal—haveremaineddominantsourcesofelectricityproductionoverthepast40years.From1980to2010theirshareincreasedsome10percentagepointsandthendeclinedby15percentagepointsby2021.Theshareofnaturalgashasmorethandoubledsince1980,whereasoil’ssharehasfallenbyhalf.Theshareofcoalincreasedfromalmost60%in1980toalmost70%by2000,andthenfelltoabout45%by2021.Theshareofhydrohasdeclinedbymorethanhalfsince1980,reachingabout13%in2021.Thecombinedshareofsolarandwindhasincreasedfrom0.1%in2000toabout17%in2021.132OceaniaEnergyandElectricityProjections●Finalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreaseby12%from2021levelsby2030andbyalmost15%by2050,atanaverageannualrateofapproximately0.5%.●Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtogrowatafasterrateofabout1.3%peryear.Electricityconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout44%by2050.●By2050theshareofelectricityinfinalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyabout6percentagepointsfromits2021share.133OceaniaFIGURE62.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHEOCEANIAREGION20212050ElectricityEnergy1EJTABLE34.FINALCONSUMPTIONOFENERGYANDELECTRICITYINTHEOCEANIAREGION,EJFinalConsumption2021203020402050EnergyElectricity4.10.9Electricityas%ofEnergy22.0%4.61.123.9%4.61.226.1%4.71.327.7%134OceaniaNuclearElectricalGeneratingCapacityProjections●Totalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtoincreasefrom2021levelsbyabout20%by2030andbyabout90%by2050.●Totalelectricityproductionisprojectedtoincreasebyabout9%by2030andbyabout34%by2050comparedwith2021productionlevels.●Inthehighcase,nuclearpowerisprojectedtogenerateelectricitybythemiddleofthecentury.Theshareofnuclearintotalelectricalgeneratingcapacityisexpectedtoreachabout1%.●Inthelowcase,nuclearpowerisnotprojectedtobeintroducedintotheelectricitygenerationsystem.135OceaniaTABLE35.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALGENERATINGCAPACITYINTHEOCEANIAREGION,GW(e)ElectricalCapacity2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear940.0Nuclearas%ofElectricalCapacity0.0%114011400.0%0.0%131013100.0%0.0%177017720.0%1.1%TABLE36.TOTALANDNUCLEARELECTRICALPRODUCTIONINTHEOCEANIAREGION,TW·hElectricityProduction2021203020402050LowHighLowHighLowHighTotalNuclear3020Nuclearas%ofElectricityProduction0.0%328032800.0%0.0%365036500.0%0.0%4050405140.0%3.5%137REFERENCES[1]INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY,WorldEnergyOutlook2021,IEA,Paris(2021),https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021[2]UNITEDSTATESENERGYINFORMATIONADMINISTRATION,InternationalEnergyOutlook2021,U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,Washington,DC(2021).[3]UNITEDNATIONSDEPARTMENTOFECONOMICANDSOCIALAFFAIRS,2019EnergyBalances,UnitedNations,NewYork(2021).[4]INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY,“WorldEnergyBalances(Edition2021)”,IEAWorldEnergyStatisticsandBalances(database),https://doi.org/10.1787/45be1845-en[5]UNITEDNATIONSDEPARTMENTOFECONOMICANDSOCIALAFFAIRS,WorldPopulationProspects2022,UnitedNations,NewYork(2022).[6]OECDNUCLEARENERGYAGENCY,INTERNATIONALATOMICENERGYAGENCY,Uranium2020:Resources,ProductionandDemand,OECDPublishing,Paris(2020).[7]INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY,NuclearPowerinaCleanEnergySystem,IEA,Paris(2019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