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首页文档碳中和资料行业政策创新展望：可再生氨（英）-IRENA

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INNOVATION
OUTLOOK
RENEWABLE
AMMONIA
INNOVATION OUTLOOK RENEWABLE AMMONIA
www.irena.org
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Copyright © IRENA 2022
in partnership with
© IRENA 2022
Unlessotherwisestatedmaterialinthispublicationmaybefreelyusedsharedcopiedreproducedprintedandorstoredprovidedthat
appropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholderMaterialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothird
partiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictionsandappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecured
beforeanyuseofsuchmaterial
ISBN----
Citation IRENAandAEA()Innovation Outlook: Renewable Ammonia
InternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabiAmmoniaEnergyAssociationBrooklyn
AboutIRENA
TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)isanintergovernmentalorganisationthatsupportscountries
intheirtransitiontoasustainableenergyfutureandservesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation
a centre of excellence and a repository of policy technology resource and financial knowledge on renewable
energyIRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergyincluding
bioenergy geothermalhydropower oceansolarand windenergyinthepursuitofsustainable development
energyaccessenergysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperitywww.irena.org
AbouttheAmmoniaEnergyAssociation
TheAmmoniaEnergyAssociation(AEA)isaglobalindustryassociationthatpromotestheresponsibleuseofammonia
inasustainableenergyeconomyTheAEA’smissionencompassesboththedecarbonisationofammoniaforexisting
applicationsincludingfertiliserschemicalsexplosivesandotherindustrialprocessesaswellastheadoptionof
low-carbonammoniainnewapplicationsincludingdirectuseasafuelforelectricpowergenerationormaritime
transportandindirectuseasahydrogencarrierandcarbon-freeenergycommoditywww.ammoniaenergy.org
Acknowledgements
ThisreportwasjointlydevelopedbytheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)andtheAmmoniaEnergy
Association(AEA)
The report was authored by Kevin Rouwenhorst (AEA) and Gabriel Castellanos (IRENA) under the guidance of
FranciscoBoshellandRolandRoesch(IRENA)TheworkwassupervisedbyDolfGielen(DirectorIRENAInnovation
andTechnologyCentre)andTrevorBrown(ExecutiveDirectorAmmoniaEnergyAssociation)
ValuablereviewandfeedbackwasalsoprovidedbyIRENAcolleaguesHeribBlancoBarbaraJinksEmanueleBianco
andUfukSezer
ThetextanddatacontainedinthisreporthavebenefitedfromaseriesofindustryconsultationswithAEAMember
companiesincludingworkshopsongreenhousegaslife-cycleanalysiscostandmarketprojectionsandpolicyactions
The authors appreciate the technical review provided by Tobias Birwe (ThyssenKrupp) Vincent Bordmann
(TotalEnergies)OliverHatfield(ArgusMedia)TueJohannessen(MærskMc-KinneyMøllerCenterforZeroCarbon
Shipping)PeterKirkeby(MANES)VesaKoivumaa(Wärtsilä)SusumuMiyazaki(CleanFuelAmmoniaAssociation)
ShigeruMuraki(CleanFuelAmmoniaAssociation)VinodPatel(InterContinentalEnergy)CedricPhilibert(International
EnergyAgency)andChristianRenk(ThyssenKrupp)
ForfurtherinformationortoprovidefeedbackpleasecontactIRENAatpublications@irena.org
Thisreportisavailablefordownloadfromwww.irena.org/publications
Disclaimer
This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material
in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its ocials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind,
either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein.
The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain
projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.
The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal
status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.
RENEWABLE AMMONIA 3
CONTENTS
KEYFINDINGS .................................................................................................................................................
Ammonia ....................................................................................................................................................................... 
Renewableammonia ................................................................................................................................................. 
Costcompetitivenessofrenewableammonia ...................................................................................................
Benefitsandchallengesforrenewableammonia ............................................................................................
Creatingenablingframeworksrecommendations ....................................................................................
SUMMARYFORPOLICYMAKERS .................................................................................................................
Marketstatusandproductionprocess ................................................................................................................
Renewableammonia .................................................................................................................................................
Costcompetitivenessofrenewableammonia ................................................................................................... 
Outlookforrenewableammonia ........................................................................................................................... 
Actionareastofosterrenewableammoniaproduction .................................................................................
CURRENTAMMONIAMARKET ...............................................................................................................
 Usesofammonia ............................................................................................................................................... 
 Locationsforammoniaproductionandconsumption ........................................................................... 
 Storagetransportanddistributionofammonia .....................................................................................
 Safetyaspects ....................................................................................................................................................
 PRODUCTIONPROCESSESTECHNOLOGYSTATUSANDCOSTS ....................................................
 Coal-basedammoniaproduction .................................................................................................................
 Naturalgas-basedammoniaproduction ................................................................................................... 
 Lower-carbonfossil-basedammoniaproduction ................................................................................... 
 Renewableammoniaproductionfromrenewableelectricity ............................................................. 
 Renewableammoniaproductionfrombiomass ......................................................................................
 Costcomparisonofrenewableammoniaandfossil-basedammonia
withcarboncaptureandstorage .................................................................................................................
 Novelammoniaproductiontechnologies ..................................................................................................
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INNOVATIONOUTLOOKRENEWABLEAMMONIAinpartnershipwith©IRENA2022Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial.ISBN978-92-9260-423-3Citation:IRENAandAEA(2022),InnovationOutlook:RenewableAmmonia,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi,AmmoniaEnergyAssociation,Brooklyn.AboutIRENATheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)isanintergovernmentalorganisationthatsupportscountriesintheirtransitiontoasustainableenergyfutureandservesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellenceandarepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledgeonrenewableenergy.IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.www.irena.orgAbouttheAmmoniaEnergyAssociationTheAmmoniaEnergyAssociation(AEA)isaglobalindustryassociationthatpromotestheresponsibleuseofammoniainasustainableenergyeconomy.TheAEA’smissionencompassesboththedecarbonisationofammoniaforexistingapplications,includingfertilisers,chemicals,explosives,andotherindustrialprocesses,aswellastheadoptionoflow-carbonammoniainnewapplications,includingdirectuseasafuelforelectricpowergenerationormaritimetransport,andindirectuseasahydrogencarrierandcarbon-freeenergycommodity.www.ammoniaenergy.orgAcknowledgementsThisreportwasjointlydevelopedbytheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)andtheAmmoniaEnergyAssociation(AEA).ThereportwasauthoredbyKevinRouwenhorst(AEA)andGabrielCastellanos(IRENA)undertheguidanceofFranciscoBoshellandRolandRoesch(IRENA).TheworkwassupervisedbyDolfGielen(Director,IRENAInnovationandTechnologyCentre)andTrevorBrown(ExecutiveDirector,AmmoniaEnergyAssociation).ValuablereviewandfeedbackwasalsoprovidedbyIRENAcolleaguesHeribBlanco,BarbaraJinks,EmanueleBiancoandUfukSezer.ThetextanddatacontainedinthisreporthavebenefitedfromaseriesofindustryconsultationswithAEAMembercompanies,includingworkshopsongreenhousegaslife-cycleanalysis,costandmarketprojections,andpolicyactions.TheauthorsappreciatethetechnicalreviewprovidedbyTobiasBirwe(ThyssenKrupp),VincentBordmann(TotalEnergies),OliverHatfield(ArgusMedia),TueJohannessen(MærskMc-KinneyMøllerCenterforZeroCarbonShipping),PeterKirkeby(MANES),VesaKoivumaa(Wärtsilä),SusumuMiyazaki(CleanFuelAmmoniaAssociation),ShigeruMuraki(CleanFuelAmmoniaAssociation),VinodPatel(InterContinentalEnergy),CedricPhilibert(InternationalEnergyAgency)andChristianRenk(ThyssenKrupp).Forfurtherinformationortoprovidefeedback,pleasecontactIRENAat:publications@irena.orgThisreportisavailablefordownloadfrom:www.irena.org/publicationsDisclaimerThispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein.TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries.RENEWABLEAMMONIA3CONTENTSKEYFINDINGS�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������10Ammonia�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������11Renewableammonia�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������11Costcompetitivenessofrenewableammonia���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������12Benefitsandchallengesforrenewableammonia��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������13Creatingenablingframeworks:10recommendations������������������������������������������������������������������������������������13SUMMARYFORPOLICYMAKERS�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������14Marketstatusandproductionprocess����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������15Renewableammonia�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������15Costcompetitivenessofrenewableammonia���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������16Outlookforrenewableammonia���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������18Actionareastofosterrenewableammoniaproduction���������������������������������������������������������������������������������181.CURRENTAMMONIAMARKET���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������211.1Usesofammonia�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������241.2Locationsforammoniaproductionandconsumption���������������������������������������������������������������������������281.3Storage,transportanddistributionofammonia�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������281.4Safetyaspects����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������292.PRODUCTIONPROCESSES,TECHNOLOGYSTATUSANDCOSTS����������������������������������������������������322.1Coal-basedammoniaproduction�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������352.2Naturalgas-basedammoniaproduction���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������362.3Lower-carbonfossil-basedammoniaproduction�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������372.4Renewableammoniaproductionfromrenewableelectricity�������������������������������������������������������������432.5Renewableammoniaproductionfrombiomass��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������602.6Costcomparisonofrenewableammoniaandfossil-basedammoniawithcarboncaptureandstorage�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������622.7Novelammoniaproductiontechnologies��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������64INNOVATIONOUTLOOK43.PERFORMANCEANDSUSTAINABILITY�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������653.1Performanceandefficiency���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������663.2Emissionsandsustainabilityofammoniaproduction���������������������������������������������������������������������������703.3Certificationschemes,CO2penaltiesandlegislation�����������������������������������������������������������������������������714.FUTUREMARKETSFORDECARBONISEDAMMONIA������������������������������������������������������������������������734.1Ammoniaasahydrogencarrier�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������774.2Ammoniaasastationaryfuel������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������784.3Ammoniaasamaritimefuelforinternationalshipping������������������������������������������������������������������������834.4Renewableammoniaversusotherenergycarriers��������������������������������������������������������������������������������864.5Theammoniasupplychain����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������894.6Outlookfortheammoniaeconomy������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������905.POTENTIALANDBARRIERS�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������965.1Demand����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������975.2Sustainableproduction�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������985.3Impactofrenewableammoniaontheenergysector����������������������������������������������������������������������������995.4Drivers�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������995.5Barriers���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������1005.6Policiesandrecommendations�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������101REFERENCES�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������104ANNEXES��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������128AnnexAThenitrogencycle�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������128AnnexBLife-cycleassessment������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������130AnnexCCapitalinvestmentforrenewableammoniaproduction���������������������������������������������������������133AnnexDTechnologystatusfortheammoniaeconomy���������������������������������������������������������������������������135AnnexEProjectedammoniauseinvarioussectors����������������������������������������������������������������������������������138AnnexFStatedpoliciesdemandandproduction��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������141AnnexGKeyreferencedata������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������142AnnexHFuturecostestimatesforrenewableammonia��������������������������������������������������������������������������143RENEWABLEAMMONIA5FIGURESFigure1Expectedammoniaproductioncapacityupto2050forthe1.5°Cscenario............................................14Figure2Expectedammoniademandupto2050forthe1.5°Cscenario...................................................................15Figure3Currentandfutureproductioncostsofrenewableammonia,comparedwithproductioncostrangeforlow-carbonfossilammonia(USD2-10/GJ)..............................................................................17Figure4Comparisonofrenewableammoniawithotherfuelsbasedonthepriceperunitofenergy..............17Figure5Globalammoniademandin2019............................................................................................................................18Figure6Globalammoniademand,1900-2020(top),anduses(bottom)...................................................................23Figure7AmmoniamarketpriceintheBlackSearegion,2000-2020...........................................................................24Figure8Productionandusesofammonia............................................................................................................................25Figure9Nitrogenfertiliserapplicationbyregionandproduct.......................................................................................26Figure10Ammoniaproductioncapacitybyregionin2020..............................................................................................28Figure11Ammoniashippinginfrastructure,includingaheatmapofliquidammoniacarriers,aswellastheammonialoadingandunloadingfacilities.................................................................................29Figure12Productionpathwaysofammoniafromvariousfeedstocks...........................................................................34Figure13Costofnaturalgas-basedammoniaproduction,2010-2021.........................................................................37Figure14CO₂costovertimeintheEU,andtheeffectoftheCO₂costonthecarbonoffsetcostforfossil-basedammoniawithcarboncaptureandstorage..........................................................................38Figure15Schematicoverviewofstepsinvolvedinammoniasynthesisfromwaterandair...................................43Figure16Capitalintensityofrenewableammoniasynthesisasafunctionofammoniaproductioncapacity.....................................................................................................................................................45Figure17Expectedcostdecreaseforrenewableammoniaproductionforbestlocationsby2030....................47Figure18Heatmapfortheproductioncostofrenewableammoniaby2050.............................................................48Figure19Estimatedcostsofrenewableammoniaupto2050.........................................................................................49Figure20Estimatedcostrangeforrenewableammoniaproductionin2030forIRENAandothersources(top);costestimatesforrenewableammoniainthebestlocationsin2030forIRENAandothersources,aswellasamedianvalue(bottom)...........................................................................................50Figure21FertiliserproductioncostasafunctionofammoniaandCO2cost..............................................................51Figure22Projectedannualrenewableammoniaproductionandplannedprojects,2020-2030..........................53Figure23Schematicoverviewofstepsinvolvedinammoniasynthesisfrombiogasandsolidbiomass...........61Figure24Comparisonofrenewableammoniawithotherfuelsbasedonthepriceperunitofenergy..............63Figure25Bestavailabletechnology(BAT)forammoniasynthesisfromvariousfeedstock..................................68Figure26Illustrativerangesofestimatedgreenhousegasemissionsofammoniaproductionfromvariousfeedstock................................................................................................................................................71INNOVATIONOUTLOOK6Figure27Schematicoftheammoniaeconomy.....................................................................................................................75Figure28RoadmapoftheammoniafuelvaluechainforJapan.......................................................................................81Figure29Currentandprojectedammoniaproductionbysourceanddemandbysector......................................91Figure30Expectedammoniademandupto2050forthe1.5°Cscenario...................................................................92Figure31Ammoniademandestimatesforuseasmaritimefuelby2050fromvarioussources(seeTable13).................................................................................................................................................................93Figure32Ammoniademandestimatespowergenerationby2050fromvarioussources(seeTable13).................................................................................................................................................................93Figure33Ammoniademandestimatesforuseashydrogencarrierby2050fromvarioussources(seeTable13).................................................................................................................................................................94Figure34Expectedammoniaproductionbyfeedstockupto2050forthe1.5°Cscenario....................................95Figure35Globalnitrogenfixation,bothnaturalandanthropogenicinoxidisedandreducedforms,formedthroughcombustion,biologicalfixation,lightning,andfertiliserapplication,fortheyear2010........................................................................................................................................................128Figure36Ammoniademandestimatesfromvarioussources(seeTable13)............................................................141Figure37Expectedammoniademandupto2050forthestatedpoliciesscenario................................................141Figure38Expectedammoniaproductionbyfeedstockupto2050forthestatedpoliciesscenario................142IMAGESImage1Electrolysis-basedhydrogenproductionforrenewableammoniaproductioninCusco,Peru..............44Image2Morriswind-to-ammoniademonstrator...................................................................................................................58Image3FREAwind-to-ammoniademonstrator....................................................................................................................58Image4Greenammoniademonstrationsystem,RutherfordAppletonLaboratory,Oxfordshire,UK................59Image5Ammonia-fuelledbusinBelgiumduringtheSecondWorldWar...................................................................76Image6MitsubishiPower’sH-25Seriesgasturbines..........................................................................................................80Image7TheVikingEnergy,whichwillberetrofittedwithanammonia-fuelledsolidoxidefuelcell..................85Image8JaccoMooijer(right)ofProtonVenturesgivesCanadianPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeau(secondfromleft)andDutchPrimeMinisterMarkRutte(middle)Monia,themascotofProtonVentures,anammoniasolutionsprovider................................................................................................90RENEWABLEAMMONIA7TABLESTable1Overviewofexistingandplannedfacilitiesforfossil-basedammoniawithalowercarbonfootprint(existingcapacityof2.6Mt/yr;plannedcapacityof17.4Mt/yr)....................................................................41Table2Overviewofexistingandplannedfacilitiesandtechnologyprovidersforrenewableammoniaproduction(existingcapacityof0.02Mt/yr;plannedcapacityof15Mt/yr(2030)and71Mt/yr(total).........................................................................................................................................................................54Table3Typicalgrossenergyconsumptionforammoniasynthesisfromvariousfeedstocks,basedonmoderntechnology........................................................................................................................................................67Table4Round-tripefficiencyofammoniaproductionandutilisationforthemaritimesector............................69Table5Overviewofplannedfacilitiesforlarge-scaleammoniadecomposition......................................................78Table6Listofselectedconsortiaforammoniademonstrationsinthemaritimesector........................................83Table7Comparisonofphysicalandchemicalfuelpropertiesforinternationalshipping......................................87Table8Comparisonofammoniaandmethanolasamaritimefuel...............................................................................88Table9Greenhousegasintensityofammoniaproductionprocessfromvariousresources................................130Table10Productioncostsandproductioncapacityofgreenammoniareportedintheliterature....................133Table11Capitalcostforrenewableammoniaplants,includingorexcludingrenewableenergygenerationcost......................................................................................................................................................................134Table12Technologystatusforammoniaproductiontechnologies,ammoniatransportandstorage,andammoniautilisationtechnologies...................................................................................................................135Table13Projecteduseofammoniainvarioussectors.....................................................................................................138Table14Costestimateforrenewableammoniaproduction............................................................................................143BOXESANDCASESSTUDIESBox1Facilitatingthetransitiontorenewableammonia:Recommendationsforindustryandgovernments....................................................................................................................................................19Box2Risksassociatedwithammoniausedasafuelforships............................................................................30Casestudy1Facilitatingthetransitiontorenewableammonia:Recommendationsforindustryandgovernments....................................................................................................................................................68Casestudy2AmmoniaatfuelvalueinJapan.........................................................................................................................81Casestudy3Decarbonisedammoniademandandproductionforecast......................................................................91INNOVATIONOUTLOOK8ABBREVIATIONSATRAutothermalreformingCAPEXCapitalexpenditureCCSCarboncaptureandstorageCCUCarboncaptureandutilisationCfDContractfordifferenceCH3OHMethanolCH₄MethaneCOCarbonmonoxideCO₂CarbondioxideCO(NH₂)₂UreaDACDirectaircaptureeSMRElectrifiedsteammethanereformingEUEuropeanUnionH₂HydrogenIMOInternationalMaritimeOrganizationIRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyLHVLowerheatingvalueLNGLiquefiednaturalgasLOHCLiquidorganichydrogencarrierLPGLiquefiedpetroleumgasN₂NitrogenN₂ONitrousoxideNH3AmmoniaNOXNitrogenoxidesOPEXOperationalexpenditurePEMPolymerelectrolytemembraneR&DResearchanddevelopmentSCRSelectivecatalyticreductionSMRSteammethanereformingSOXSulphuroxidesUSDUnitedStatesdollarUNITSOFMEASURE°CDegreecelsiusBtuBritishthermalunitGJGigajouleGtGigatonneGWGigawattkgKilogramkmKilometrektKilotonnekWKilowattkWhKilowatthourLLitreMJMegajouleMtMilliontonnesMWMegawattMWhMegawatthourm3CubicmetreppmPartspermilliontTonnet/dTonnesperdayt/yrTonnesperyearINNOVATIONOUTLOOK10KEYFINDINGSAmmoniaisanessentialglobalcommodity.Around85%ofallammoniaisusedtoproducesyntheticnitrogenfertiliser.Awiderangeofotherapplicationsexistsuchasrefrigeration,mining,pharmaceuticals,watertreatment,plasticsandfibres,abatementofnitrogenoxides(NOx),etc.Ammoniaproductionaccountsforaround45%ofglobalhydrogenconsumption,oraround33milliontonnes(Mt)ofhydrogenin2020.Onlytherefiningindustryusesmorehydrogentoday.Replacingconventionalammoniawithrenewableammoniaproducedfromrenewablehydrogenpresentsanearlyopportunityforactionindecarbonisingthechemicalsector.Newapplicationsbeingexploredincluderenewableammoniaasazero-carbonfuelinthemaritimesectorandforstationarypowergeneration.Ammoniaisalsoproposedasahydrogencarrierforlong-rangetransport.ProjectionsfromtheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)estimatethatby2050,inascenarioalignedwiththeParisAgreementgoalofkeepingglobaltemperaturerisewithin1.5degreesCelsius(°C),thistransitionwouldleadtoa688Mtammoniamarket,nearlyfourtimeslargerthantoday’smarket.Thisammoniawouldbedecarbonised,with566Mtofnewrenewableammoniaproduction(fromrenewablehydrogenandrenewablepower),complementedwithfossil-basedammoniaproductionincombinationwithcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS).Today’shighpricesfornaturalgascreateanexceptionalopportunityforrenewableammonia.Withtherightpolicies,renewableammoniamanufacturingcouldbewidelycostcompetitivefrom2030onwards.Thesecostreductionswouldbeachievedthroughrenewablehydrogencostreductions,gigawatt(GW)-scaledeployment,drivingdowncostsofrenewableelectricity,creatinghigh-volumedemandforelectrolysers,de-riskingnovelcombinationsofmaturetechnologiesandstimulatinginnovationthroughmarketcreation.Certificationschemes,contractsfordifference(CfD)andothermechanismswillthereforebeimportanttosupportthedevelopmentofrenewableammoniamarkets.Thefirstofmanyproposedmulti-gigawattrenewableammoniaproductionplantsarealreadyunderconstruction.Thefirstrenewablehydrogensupplywasretrofittedontoanexistingammoniaplantin2021.Renewableammoniaisexpectedtodominateallnewammoniaproductioncapacityafter2025.Around2025,thefirstmoversareexpectedtohavedemonstratedinnovativerenewableammoniadeploymenttechnologies.Gasturbines,furnacesandinternalcombustionenginescanberetrofittedtouserenewableammoniaasafuel.Industryisshowingclearsignalsinmovingrenewableammoniatechnologiesforward.Thefirstdedicatedammonia-fuelledvesselswillbeoperatingatsea,withtwo-strokeandfour-strokeenginescommerciallyavailablefornew-buildsandretrofits.Thefirst1GWpowerplantwillbeco-combustingammoniawithcoal,andammoniagasturbinesandfuelcellswillbeavailable.Thefirstgigawatt-scalerenewableammoniaproductionplantsatremotelocationswillshiptheiroutputtodistantconsumermarkets.RENEWABLEAMMONIA11Ammonia•Ammoniaisakeyproductinthefertiliserandchemicalindustries.Itisusedmainlyforproducingfertilisers,suchasureaandammoniumnitrate.Around183Mtofammoniaisproducedannually,nearlyallofwhichisgeneratedfromfossilfuels:naturalgas(72%),coal(22%),naphthaandheavyfueloil.•Ammonialife-cycleemissionsamountto0.5gigatonnes(Gt)ofcarbondioxide(CO2)annually(around15-20%oftotalchemicalsectoremissionsand1%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions).•Ammoniafertiliserdemandhasbeenrisingsteadilyinrecentdecades,drivenbygrowingfooddemand.•IntheIRENA1.5°Cscenario,themainmarketgrowthisexpectedfromthemaritimesector,representingnewdemandof197Mtby2050,andfrominternationaltradeofammoniaasahydrogencarrier,representingnewdemandof127Mtby2050.•SignificantamountsofCO2fromfossil-basedammoniaproductionarestoredintheon-siteproductionofureafertiliser(1.3tonnespertonneofammoniafeedstock).ThisCO2isreleasedasthefertiliserisappliedinthefield.Ureafertiliserisdeployedindevelopingcountriesinparticular.CarbonaccountingrulesandpricingforthisCO2canhaveasignificantimpactonthefuturedecarbonisationstrategiesfornitrogenfertilisermanufacturing.Renewableammonia•Renewableammoniaisproducedfromrenewablehydrogen,whichinturnisproducedviawaterelectrolysisusingrenewableelectricity.Thishydrogenisconvertedintoammoniausingnitrogenthatisseparatedfromair.•Renewableammoniahasbeenproducedonacommercialscalesince1921.However,lessthan0.02Mtofrenewableammoniawasproducedin2021.•Industrialproductionisshiftingtowardsrenewableammonia.Theannualmanufacturingcapacityofannouncedrenewableammoniaplantsis15Mtby2030(around8%ofthecurrentammoniamarketacross54projects,notablyinAustralia,MauritaniaandOman).Apipelineof71Mtexistsoutto2040,butinvestmentdecisionsarestillpendingformostprojects.•Around80Mtofexistingammoniaproductioncapacityconstitutesanearlyopportunityfordecarbonisation.•IRENAanalysissuggeststhatina1.5°Cscenario,renewableammoniaproductioncapacitywillneedtoreach566Mtby2050.The71Mtofannouncedprojectsthereforerepresentsslightlyover10%ofthezero-carbonammoniamanufacturingcapacitythatwouldneedtobeoperationalby2050.•Renewableammoniaisexpectedtodominateallnewcapacityafter2025.Inthelongterm,renewableammoniaislikelytobecomethemaincommodityfortransportingrenewableenergybetweencontinents.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK12Costcompetitivenessofrenewableammonia•ThecostofrenewableammoniaiscurrentlyanestimatedUSD720pertonneatlocationswiththebestsolarandwindresources,andthisisexpectedtodecreasetoUSD480pertonneby2030andUSD310pertonneby2050.Thesecostestimatesareconfirmedbyotherliterature.AcarbonpriceofaroundUSD150pertonneofCO2isrequiredforrenewableammoniatobecompetitivewithexistingfossil-basedammoniaproduction.•Renewableammoniaisexpectedtoachievecostparitywithfossil-basedammoniawithCCSbeyond2030.•AnelectricitypricebelowUSD20permegawatt-hourisrequiredforrenewableammoniatobecompetitivewithfossil-basedammonia.Intherightregionalmarkets–forexample,explosivesmanufacturinginChile–localrenewableammoniaproductionmayalreadybecompetitivewithimportedfossil-basedammonia.•Thecostofproducingfossil-basedammoniaistypicallyintherangeofUSD110-340pertonne,dependingonthefossilfuelprice.Fossil-basedammoniaproductioncanbedecarbonisedwithCCStechnology.CCSaddscoststhatvarybytechnologyandbycaptureefficiency,typicallyyieldinganammoniaproductioncostofUSD170-465pertonneandamitigationcostofUSD60-90pertonneofCO2.•Thecostsassociatedwithcarbonemissions,CCS,premiumpriceoff-takeagreements,aswellasCfDschemeswillshiftthisdynamic.AcarbonpriceofUSD60-90pertonneofCO2isrequiredforCCStobecompetitivewithexistingfossil-basedammoniaproduction.•Thenewautothermalreforming(ATR)technologyisbettersuitedforCCSthantoday’ssteammethanereforming(SMR)technology.Around2.6Mt/yroffacilitycapacityexiststoday,producinglow-carbon-fossil-basedammoniaandtheplannedfacilitycapacityaccountsfor17.4Mt/yr.•Thecostofrenewableammoniadependstoalargeextentonthecostofrenewablehydrogen,whichrepresents90%oftheproductioncostofrenewableammonia.•Thefuturecostofrenewablehydrogendependsmainlyonthecombinationoffurtherreductionsinthecostofrenewablepowergenerationandelectrolysers,andgainsinefficiencyanddurability.•Thenumberofoperationalhoursperyearplaysakeyroleinreducingthecostofrenewableammoniaproduction.Locationswithcomplementaryvariablewindandsolarenergyprofilescanyieldelectrolysercapacityfactorsofupto70%.•Thecashcostofoperatingalarge-scalerenewableammoniaplantthatincludesrenewableenergygeneratingassetsiswellbelowUSD100pertonne.•Partialrevampingoffossil-basedammoniaplantstointroducerenewablehydrogenreducesthecost,comparedtostand-alonenew-builds.RENEWABLEAMMONIA131PutasufficientlyhighpriceonCO2emissions.2Translatepoliticalwillintopolicies.3Focusondeploymentofexistingrenewableammoniatechnologies.4Supportthedevelopmentofentiresupplychains.5Devisetradestrategiesthatmitigatesupplyrisks.6Investinelectrolysermanufacturing.7De-riskearlyinvestmentprojects.8Retrofittechnologytowardsrenewableammoniaproduction.9Supportthedemand-sidephase-outoffossilfuels.10Re-assesstheroleofammoniainhydrogenstrategies.Benefitsandchallengesforrenewableammonia•Ammoniaisaversatilefuelforstationarypowerandheatandformaritimetransportthatcanbeusedininternalcombustionengines,gasturbines,industrialfurnaces,generatorsetsandfuelcells.Itcanbestoredasaliquidat8baroraboveandatambienttemperature,oratatmosphericpressureat-33°C.•Around18-20Mtofammoniaisshippedinternationallyperyear.Substantialinvestmentswillberequiredtoexpandtheshippinginfrastructureandallowammoniarefuelling.•Renewableammoniacandisplacefossilfuelsatscaleinhard-to-abateareasofthepowerandtransportsectors.However,theuseofammoniaasafuelcouldincreaseemissionsofnitrogenoxides(NOXandnitrousoxide,N2O),whichmustbeavoided.•Mostoftheproposedrenewableammoniaplantsusevariablesolarphotovoltaics(PV)andwind.Anumberofelectrolysistechnologiesexist.Technologicalandoperationalinnovations,incombinationwithcarefulsiteselectionandprojectdesign,canfacilitatetheintegrationofhighsharesofsolarandwind.•Thecurrentglobalelectrolyserproductioncapacityofareported2.1GWperyear(in2020)needstoscaleupmorethan20-foldtomeettherenewableammoniamanufacturingobjectivesfor2050.•Demonstrations,technologycommercialisationandregulatorydevelopmentwillberequiredfortheammoniafuelmarkettotakeoff.Creatingenablingframeworks:10recommendationsINNOVATIONOUTLOOK14SUMMARYFORPOLICYMAKERSAmmoniaisoneofthesevenbasicchemicals–alongsideethylene,propylene,methanolandBTXaromatics(benzene,tolueneandxylene)–thatareusedtoproduceallotherchemicalproducts.Itisthesecondmostproducedchemicalbymass,aftersulphuricacid.Aroundfour-fifthsofallammoniaisusedtoproducenitrogenfertilisers,suchasureaandammoniumnitrate;assuch,itsupportsfoodproductionforaroundhalfoftheglobalpopulation.Ammonia’suseasacarbon-freefuelandhydrogencarrierhasbeenproposedbutisnotyetimplementedatsignificantscale.Forthesenewmarketstomaterialise,largeadditionalvolumesofammoniawillberequired–demandin2050isprojectedtoberoughlythreetimeswhatitwasin2020–andthesevolumesmustbelow-carbon.Althoughrenewableammoniahasbeenproducedatanindustrialscaleusinghydropowersince1920,mostammoniatodayisproducedfromnaturalgas(72%)andcoal(22%).Theammoniaproductionindustryhasannualemissionsof0.5gigatonnes(Gt)ofcarbondioxide(CO2),representingaround1%ofglobalCO2emissionsand15-20%ofthechemicalsector’sCO2emissions.Addressingemissionsfromammoniaproductionisthereforeakeycomponentofthedecarbonisationofthechemicalandagriculturalsectors.Decarbonisationofammoniawouldalsoextenditsuseasacarbon-freefuelinthetransportandstationarypowersectors.Figure1Expectedammoniaproductioncapacityupto2050forthe1.5°CscenarioAmmoniaproduction(Mt)FossilnoCCSFossilwithCCSRenewableSource:IRENA,2019b.RENEWABLEAMMONIA15MarketstatusandproductionprocessWorldwideproductionofammoniawas183milliontonnes(Mt)in2020,andexistingmarketsareexpectedtoincreasedemandto223Mtby2030andreach333Mtby2050ina1.5°Cscenario.Thissteadyriseindemandisdrivenprimarilybypopulationgrowth,withammoniademandforfertiliserapplicationsprojectedtogrowfrom156Mtin2020to267Mtin2050.Inaddition,significantnewmarketsareexpectedtodevelopoverthecomingdecadesforammoniaasahydrogencarrier,asafuelforstationarypowerandheat,andasatransportfuel,particularlyinthemaritimeindustry.Whilecurrentmarketscontributemostofthegrowthindemandthisdecade,energymarketsmayaccountforamuchfastergrowthrateafter2030.By2050,globalammoniademandisestimatedtoreach688Mtina1.5°Cscenario,morethanthreetimesthedemandexpectedin2025(seesection4.6).RenewableammoniaRenewableammoniaisproducedusingrenewableelectricityforhydrogenproductionandnitrogenpurificationfromair.Renewableammoniaischemicallyidenticaltoammoniaproducedfromfossilfuels,anditisnotpossibletoidentifyitsoriginsviaanychemicalanalysis.Thus,allfeedstocksandenergyusedtoproduceammonianeedtobeofrenewableorigin(e.g.biomass,solar,wind,hydro,geothermal)toqualifytheammoniaproducedasrenewable.Historically,renewableammoniahasbeenproducedfromhydropowersince1921,butonlyonecommercialplantisstilloperational.Lessthan0.02Mtofrenewableammoniaiscurrentlyproducedannually,equivalentto0.01%oftoday’sglobalammoniaproduction.Variousdemonstrationplantsareoperating,basedonvariablesolarandwindenergycoupledwithelectrolyserstoproducerenewablehydrogen.ThefirstrenewablehydrogenfeedtobetiedintoanexistingammoniaplantbecameoperationalinDecember2021inSpain,andthefirstgigawatt(GW)-scalerenewableammoniaplant,withacapacityof1.2Mtperyear,isunderconstructioninSaudiArabiaandisslatedtobeginoperationsin2025.Figure2Expectedammoniademandupto2050forthe1.5°CscenarioAmmoniademand(Mt)FertiliserapplicationsOtherexistingusesShippingHydrogencarrierPowergeneration(Japan)INNOVATIONOUTLOOK16Thecombinedcapacityofallthecurrentlyannouncedrenewableammoniaprojectsrepresents15Mtofrenewableammoniaby2030.Thisisaround8%ofthecurrentglobalammoniaproductionandshowsthatthereismomentumfromtheindustrytomovetowardsrenewableammonia,especiallygiventhatmostoftheseprojectswereannouncedonlyin2020and2021.However,whileoneoftheseprojectsisalreadyoperational,andsomeotherprojectsareunderconstruction,mostoftheannouncedprojectshavenotyetreachedafinalinvestmentdecision.Newprojectsarebeingannouncedeverymonth.Morethan60renewableammoniaplantswereannouncedduring2020and2021(Table2),whileonly10carbonfossil-basedammoniaplantswithCCSorwithmethanepyrolysistechnologyhavebeenannounced(Table1).Thisindicatesastrongmomentumtowardsrenewableammonia.Whilelow-emissionfossil-basedammoniamayplayatransitionalroleindecarbonisingcurrentmarkets,suchasfertilisers,renewableammoniaisexpectedtoplaythedominantroleinthelongterm,inbothcurrentandfuturemarkets.CostcompetitivenessofrenewableammoniaRenewableammoniaproductioncostsfornewplantsareestimatedtobeintherangeofUSD720-1400pertonnetoday,fallingtoUSD310-610pertonneby2050.Forexistingammoniaplants,co-productionoffossil-basedhydrogenandrenewablehydrogencouldenabletheintroductionofrenewableammoniabyutilisingexistingassetsandinfrastructuretoreducecosts.Forhybridplants,costsareestimatedtobeUSD300-400pertonneby2025,fallingtoaroundUSD250pertonneby2040.Whilethecostofproducingrenewableammoniatodayishigherthanthatofproducingfossil-basedammoniawithnomitigationofemissions,renewableammoniaisexpectedtobecomecheaperthanfossil-basedammoniabefore2050.Theproductioncostofnaturalgas-basedammoniaandcoal-basedammoniaisintherangeofUSD110-340pertonnetoday,butcarboncaptureandsequestrationwouldaddUSD100-150pertonnetothesecosts(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020),bringinglow-emissionfossil-basedproductioncostsuptoUSD210-490pertonne.Thecostoflow-emissionfossil-basedammoniaissimilartorenewableammoniafromhybridplantsin2025,andmoreexpensivethanrenewableammoniafromsomenewplantsin2050.Thecostofrenewableammoniadependsmainlyonthecostofrenewablehydrogen,representingmorethan90%ofthecostforammoniaproduction.Thetwoothersignificantstepsinammoniaproduction–nitrogenpurificationandtheHaber-Boschprocess–representonlyaminorfractionofthetotalcost.Futurecostreductionsinrenewablehydrogenproductiondependmainlyonreductionsinthecostofrenewablepowerandthecostofelectrolysers,aswellasongainsinefficiencyandoptimisedstorage,buffering,sizingandflexibilityoftheHaber-Boschammoniasynthesisloop.Thenumberofoperationalhoursperyear(capacityfactor)playsakeyroleindeterminingproductioncosts,asanyincreaseintheutilisationrateofthesecapital-intensiveassetsdirectlyreducestheproductcost.Thiscancreateachallengeforprojectsusingvariablerenewableelectricityinputs;but,bycombiningcomplementarygenerationprofilesofwindandsolarenergy,thecapacityfactoroftheelectrolysercanreachupto70%.Inoptimallocations,renewableammoniacouldbecostcompetitivewithfossil-basedammoniawithCCSfrom2030.RENEWABLEAMMONIA17Figure4ComparisonofrenewableammoniawithotherfuelsbasedonthepriceperunitofenergyUSDGJUSDMWhFossiloilsFossiloilsUSDt-COLowcarbonfossilammoniaRenewableammoniaRenewableammoniaRenewableammoniaBio-methanolBio-ethanolBio-methanee-methanole-methanolSource:Low-carbonfossilammoniafromHaldorTopsøeetal.(2020).Fossilfuelvaluesarebasedonaveragevalues(2010-2020);seeIRENAandMethanolInstitute(2021).MethanolcostvaluesarebasedonIRENAandMethanolInstitute(2021).Bio-ethanolandbio-methaneestimatesarebasedonIRENAdata.Figure3Currentandfutureproductioncostsofrenewableammonia,comparedwithproductioncostrangeforlow-carbonfossilammonia(USD2-10/GJ)Productioncost(USDt)USDGJRenewableammoniaLowcarbonfossilammoniaNote:GJ=Gigajoules.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK18OutlookforrenewableammoniaAmmoniahasthesamechemicalstructure(NH3)whetheritisproducedfromfossilorrenewablesources.Renewableammoniaisthereforeadirectsubstituteforfossil-basedammoniainallitscurrentuses,meetingdemandof183Mtannuallyasafeedstockforfertilisers,chemicals,andmaterials(Figure5),althoughureafertiliserrepresentsaspecialcase(seesection5).Existingfossil-basedammoniaplantscanbegindecarbonisingusingtoday’stechnologies,introducingrenewablehydrogenintheplanttoreplace10-20%ofthenaturalgas.Beyonditsexistingmarkets,theoutlookforrenewableammoniaincludeslow-carbonenergymarketswhereammoniacouldbeusedasahydrogencarrierorasafuelforshippingorstationarypowerandheatgeneration.Comparedtocarbon-basedhydrogencarriers,ammoniabenefitsfromrequiringnitrogenasthehydrogencarrier:at780000partspermillion(ppm),purifyingatmosphericnitrogenhasalowercostbasisthanpurifyingatmosphericCO2,andnoCO2isemittedduringcombustionofammonia.By2050,thesenewenergymarketsrepresentadditionalrenewableammoniademandof354Mtina1.5°Cscenario(Figure2).ActionareastofosterrenewableammoniaproductionDemandandsupplycanbepromptedbyproperregulations,mandates,andsuitablepolicies,asisthecasewithallotherdecarbonisationtechnologyalternatives.Examplesincluderenewablefuelstandards,carbontaxes,incentivessuchasprojectfundingsupportandlow-costfinance,long-termguaranteedpricefloors,contractsfordifference,cap-and-tradeschemes,lowertaxesonrenewablefuelsandfeedstocks,eco-labellingforlow-carbonammoniaandinformationcampaigns.Definitionandharmonisationofmethodologiesforcarbonintensityandlife-cycleanalysis,andotherstandardsandbenchmarks,willsupportthedevelopmentofthesenewmarkets.Theseshouldincludemeaningfulsupplychainemissions;forexample,upstreammethaneemissionsforfossil-basedammoniawithcarbonmitigation.Inadditiontofosteringthedevelopmentofnewrenewableammoniaplants,thegradualandincreasingco-productionofrenewableammoniainexistingfossil-basedammoniaplantsshouldbestimulated,tobegindecarbonisingcurrentammoniaproductionassetsatanearlystage.Thiswillsupportincumbentammoniaproducersandtheirworkforcebyprovidingthemwithoperationalexperienceinrenewablehydrogenproduction.Figure5Globalammoniademandin2019MonoammoniumphosphateDirectapplicationOthermarketsUreaAmmoniumnitrateDiammoniumphosphateAmmoniumsulphateNote:Ammoniaproductionin2020was183Mt(Hatfield,2020).RENEWABLEAMMONIA19Box1Facilitatingthetransitiontorenewableammonia:RecommendationsforindustryandgovernmentsSuitablepoliciesandincentivesareessentialtomeetthegoalsoftheParisAgreementandtosustainenergysecurityandimprovequalityoflife.Withoutconfidenceinstrong,stable,predictable,andsustainedgovernmentpolicy,sufficientinvestmentinlong-lived,capital-intensiverenewabletechnologiesisnotlikelytooccurandflourish.1PutasufficientlyhighpriceonCO2emissionsApenaltyonCO2ofaroundUSD60-90pertonneofCO2isrequiredtobridgethegapbetweenfossil-basedammoniawithunmitigatedemissionsandfossil-basedammoniawithCCS.ACO2penaltyofuptoUSD150pertonneofCO2wouldbridgethegapbetweenfossil-basedandrenewableammonia(seesection2.3).Inthelongterm,renewableammoniaisexpectedtobecostcompetitivewithfossil-basedammoniawithCCS.Thus,CCScanplayaroleindecarbonisingcurrentammoniafacilities,butnewlybuiltfossil-basedammoniaplantswithCCSmayresultinstrandedassetsinthelongtermunlesssupportedbyverylownaturalgasprices.2TranslatepoliticalwillintopoliciesWithorwithoutapriceonCO2emissions,strong,stableandsustainedregulatorymeasuresforfuelstandardsandrenewablequotasormandateswillfacilitatepriceincentivestoprovidestabilityofsustainedgrowthandinvestment.Thesecanbesupportedbyrobustcertificationthatcanaccountforthecarbonintensityofammonia.Suitablepolicyinstrumentsareparamounttoensureequitabletaxtreatmentandalong-termguaranteedpricefloorforwideradoptionofrenewableammoniaandotherpromisingsustainablefuels.Whileenergytaxreductioncanbeprovidedforrenewablefuels,includingrenewableammonia,fuelexciseandothertaxesshouldbebasedonenergycontentandnotvolume(e.g.USDperkilowatt-hour[kWh],notUSDperlitre).Forexample,acontractfordifference(CfD)schemeinwhichadvancedrenewablefuelproductionprojectsbidforCfDs,andthewinnersareawardedtheminso-calledreverseauctions(lowestbidwins)isanappropriatetaxationpolicythatcan“makeorbreak”alternativefuels;thiscouldmotivateinvestmentsasameaningfulproductionsupportsystem.Moderatecarbontaxationlevelscanbeobtainedviaearmarkandreturnprinciples.3FocusondeploymentofexistingrenewableammoniatechnologiesThecurrentfocusshouldbeonimplementingexistingtechnologiesatscaleratherthandevelopingnew,breakthroughtechnologies,becausemostelementsintherenewableammoniavaluechainhavealreadybeendemonstrated.Deploymentwilldriveinnovationssuchasimprovingtheflexibilityoftheammoniasynthesisloop,improvingtheperformanceoftheelectrolyser,andimprovingtheperformanceofammoniacrackers,aswellasdrivingdowncostsoftoday’stechnologies.Near-termmarketcreationthroughdeploymentofexistingtechnologieswillaccelerateinnovationinthelongerterm.4SupportthedevelopmentofentiresupplychainsFundingprogrammesshouldextendtheirscopetoincludeammoniaandotherhydrogencarriers.Programmesthatfocusonasingletechnology(e.g.hydrogenorsolarpanels)tendtosupportearly-stageR&Dandpilotprojects.However,broaderfundingprogrammesthatfocusonapplicationsforthesetechnologies(e.g.electro-fuels,energystorage)supportdeploymentbyconnectingthevaluechainacrossproduction,distributionanduse.Programmesmayalsowishtoallowforeignparticipation,tosupportdevelopmentofglobalsupplychains,recognisingthatdemandmaynotbemetbydomesticproduction.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK205DevisetradestrategiesthatmitigatesupplyrisksTocreatejobsandencouragecompetitivenewindustriesforrenewableammoniainbothproducingandconsumingregions,internationalco-operationmustbefostered–forexample,betweenprojectdevelopers,ammoniausersandammoniaproductioncompanies.Increasingtheinvestmentsinrenewableammoniaproductioncapacitycouldbroadentheenergyandfeedstocksupplyrangeandminimisepoliticalrisks.6InvestinelectrolysermanufacturingMultiplegigawatt-scaleelectrolyserfactorieswillberequiredthisdecade.Thedevelopmentofsuchlarge-scaleelectrolyserfactorieswillinherentlydecreasethecostofelectrolyserproductionduetoanacceleratedlearningcurveandeconomiesofscale,whichwillinturnmakerenewableammoniamorecompetitivewithfossil-basedalternatives.7De-riskearlyinvestmentprojectsGovernmentscanhelptode-riskthebillionsofUSDininvestmentoffirstmoversseekingtobuildgigawatt-scalerenewableammoniaplants.Forinstance,grants,investments,loansandloanguaranteescande-riskpartofthecapitalexpenditure(CAPEX)sideoftheinvestment.Ontheoperationalexpenditure(OPEX)side,investmentscanbede-riskedwithCfDorgreenpremiums,renewablemandates,procurementcontractsandoff-takeguarantees,oranintermediatesecuredbuyerofauctionedprojects.8RetrofittechnologytowardsrenewableammoniaproductionAmmoniaplantsthatdonotcurrentlyproduceureacanbedecarbonisedwithoutdelay,eitherbyintegratingCCS,byretrofittingthemwitheSMR(electrifiedsteammethanereforming)technologyorbyreplacingfossilfeedstockwithrenewablehydrogen.Thisrepresentsaround80Mtperyearofexistingammoniacapacity,whichcanberegardedaslow-hangingfruittodecarbonise.9Supportthedemand-sidephase-outoffossilfuelsGovernmentalandregulatoryincentivesshouldbeprovidedtoexistingfossil-basedassetstoacceleratethetransitiontorenewables.Thispreventslocked-inCO2emissionsfromcontinuedoperations,reducesdemandforongoingfossilfueldiscoveryandextraction,andreducesthelikelihoodofstrandedassets.Retrofittingexistingassetsmayoftenbemorecosteffectivethanbuildingnewassets,especiallyduringtheinitialscale-upphase.Thisisalsovalidforammoniautilisationtechnology.Forboththepowersectorandthemaritimesector,currenttechnologycanoftenberetrofittedtooperateonammoniafuelatalowercostthanbuildingnewassets.Inthemaritimesector,ammoniatankerscanbeconvertedtouseammoniaasafuelfirst,intheknowledgethatfuelavailabilitywillnotbeanissueforthisvesseltypeatanyport.10Re-assesstheroleofammoniainhydrogenstrategiesMosthydrogenstrategiesconsiderammoniaonlyasaconsumerofhydrogen,inthecontextoffertiliserproduction,andomitconsiderationofitspotentialrolesasafuelandhydrogencarrier.Inlocationswhereammoniawillbeimportedasahydrogencarrier,itshouldbeutiliseddirectlywherepossible,ratherthanusinghydrogenobtainedfromthedecompositionofammonia.Ammoniamaybethemostcost-effectivevectorforlarge-scalehydrogenimports,butitscost-effectivenessincreaseswithdirectuse.Noveltechnologiestouseammoniaincentralisedanddecentralisedpowergeneration,aswellastransportapplications,areapproachingcommercialisationandmayofferanopportunitytore-assesstherolesofhydrogenandammoniainthecontextofanationalhydrogenstrategy.RENEWABLEAMMONIA211.CURRENTAMMONIAMARKETKeyfindingsAmmoniaisanessentialglobalcommodity.•Itisthesecondmostproducedchemicalworldwide.•Usedmainlyfornitrogenfertilisers,itsupportsfoodproductionforaroundhalfoftheglobalpopulation.•Ammoniaisalsousedinmanycornersofsociety,fromrefrigerationandminingtopharmaceuticals,electronics,watertreatment,polymers,nitrogenoxideabatement,furnitureandnylon.TheHaber-Boschprocessforsynthesisingammoniaisenergyefficient,butfossilfeedstocksandfuelscausesignificantCO2emissions.•Renewableammoniahasbeenproducedatanindustrialscalesincethe1920s,withhydroelectricitypoweringthealkalineelectrolyserstofeedtheHaber-Boschprocesswithrenewablehydrogen.•Inthe1940s,naturalgasstartedtobecomethedominantfeedstock,andlargerplantdesignsdeliveredeconomiesofscale.Onlyonerenewableammoniaplantremainsincommercialoperation,inPeru.•Today,fossil-basedammoniaproductioncausesglobalemissionsof0.5GtofCO2annually,oraround1%oftotalgreenhouseemissions.Renewableammoniarepresentsaviabledecarbonisationpathwayforindustriesthatuseammoniatoday,andopensnewmarketsforammoniaasafuelandhydrogencarrierinthefuture.•Thefirstfossil-freefertilisersareexpectedtobeavailablein2023,derivedfromrenewableammoniaproducedinNorwaywithananticipatedcarbonfootprintreductionof80-90%.•Nitratefertiliserscontainnocarbon,whereasureafertiliserscontaincarbon.Thissuggestsanopportunitytoeliminateemissionsatammoniaplantsthatmanufacturenitrates,andanopportunitytousecircularsourcesofCO2atammoniaplantsthatproduceurea.•Otherindustriesthatconsumeammoniacansubstituterenewableammoniaforfossil-basedammonia.•Theanticipatedavailabilityofrenewableandlow-carbonammoniasuggeststhatammoniawillseesignificantfuturedemandasafuelandhydrogencarrier(seesection4).INNOVATIONOUTLOOK22Themarketpriceofammoniaiscurrentlylinkedtonaturalgasandremainsvolatile.•Between2000and2020,themarketpriceforammoniarangedfromUSD100toUSD600pertonne.•In2021,drivenbynaturalgasshortages,ammoniapricesexceededUSD1000pertonneinallregions.•Ashifttorenewableammoniawoulddecoupleammoniapricingfromnaturalgasmarkets.In2020,globalammoniaproductioncapacitywasaround243Mt,withglobaldemandof183Mt.•Around90%ofammoniaisconsumedon-siteasafeedstockforderivativeproducts.•Eachyear,25-30Mtofammoniaistransportedbyroad,train,shipandpipeline.•Eachyear,18-20Mtistransportedbyship.Around170vesselsareinoperationthatcancarryammonia,ofwhich40carryammoniaonacontinuousbasis.Ammoniaisahazardouschemical,butitsriskscanbemanaged.•Ammoniahasawell-knownhazardprofileandhasbeenhandledsafelyformorethanacentury,withfewfatalincidentsreportedwhenhandledbytrainedpersonnel.•Thereisahighmaturityofstorage,transport,anddistributiontechnologies,aswellastraining,industrycodesandstandards,andregulationsthatensuresafetyandsecurity.©Bolbik/Shutterstock.comRENEWABLEAMMONIA23Ammonia(NH3)isoneofthesevenbasicchemicals–alongsideethylene,propylene,methanolandBTXaromatics(benzene,tolueneandxylene)–thatareusedtoproduceallotherchemicalproducts.Itisthesecondmostproducedchemicalbymass,aftersulphuricacid.Aroundfour-fifthsofallammoniaisusedtoproducenitrogenfertilisers,suchasureaandammoniumnitrate;assuch,itsupportsfoodproductionforaroundhalfoftheglobalpopulation(Erismanetal.,2008).Globaldemandforammoniawasaround183Mtin2020(Hatfield,2020)(Figure6),whiletheglobalproductioncapacityhasreached243Mt(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).Roughly90%ofallammoniaproducedtodayisconsumedon-siteasafeedstockfordownstreamprocesses,and18-20Mtofmerchantammoniaistransportedannuallybyship(Hatfield,2020,2021).Figure6Globalammoniademand,1900-2020(top),anduses(bottom)Annualammoniademand(Mt)Ammoniauses(Mty)MonoammoniumphosphateDirectapplicationOthermarketsUreaAmmoniumnitrateDiammoniumphosphateAmmoniumsulphateNote:Directapplicationreferstotheuseofammoniaasfertiliser.Othermarketsincludethetextileindustry,theexplosivesandminingindustry,pharmaceuticalsproduction,refrigeration,plasticsmanufacturing,wastetreatmentandairtreatment,suchasnitrogenoxide(NOX)abatement.Sources:ReproducedfromAppl(1999),Brightling(2018),Hatfield(2020)andSmil(2004).INNOVATIONOUTLOOK24Between2000and2020,theaveragecontractpriceforammoniafluctuatedbetweenUSD100andUSD600pertonneintheGulfCoast,EuropeandtheMiddleEastwhenadjustingforinflation(Figure7).Inrecentyears,ammoniapricesfluctuatedbetweenUSD200andUSD300pertonne(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020;Hatfield,2020)until,naturalgasshortagesof2021,ammoniapricesexceededUSD1000pertonneateachofthesetradinghubs(S&PGlobalPlatts,2021).1.1UsesofammoniaNitrogenfertilisersaccountforaround80%oftoday’stotalammoniademand.Othermarketsincludemanufacturingofchemicals,plasticsandtextiles(acrylonitrile,melamine);theminingindustry(low-densityammoniumnitrateexplosives,metalsbrighteningprocesses),pharmaceuticals;refrigeration;wastetreatment;andairtreatment,suchasabatementofnitrogenoxide(NOX).Whiletheuseofammoniainfertilisermarketsbeganinthe1920sfollowingthescale-upoftheHaber-Boschsynthesisprocess,ammoniahadalreadybeenusedasarefrigerantsince1850.Around0.36MtofammoniaannuallyiscurrentlyusedasarefrigerantinNorthAmerica(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020),andwhileithastobecarefullymanagedasitisapoisonouschemical,ithastheadvantageofhavingaglobalwarmingpotentialofzero.Ammoniaisalsoproposedasacarbon-freefuelandhydrogencarrier(RoyalSociety,2020;Valera-Medinaetal.,2018).However,ammoniaiscurrentlynotusedfortheseapplicationsbeyondresearch,developmentanddemonstrationprojects.Theroleofammoniaasafuelandhydrogencarrierisdiscussedinsection4.Figure7AmmoniamarketpriceintheBlackSearegion,2000-2020Ammoniaprice(USDt)PricesPricesadjustedforinflation(inUSD)Source:Hatfield,2020.RENEWABLEAMMONIA25AmmoniaforfertiliserapplicationsTheHaber-Boschprocessforammoniasynthesiswasinventedandcommercialisedduringthe1900sandthe1920s.FollowingtheadoptionofnaturalgasasthepreferredfuelandfeedstockfortheHaber-Boschprocessinthe1940sand1950s,andwithincreasesinplantsizeandenergyefficiencythatdeliveredeconomiesofscale,theuseofammonia-basedfertilisersacceleratedglobally,increasingagriculturalyieldstosupporttheevergrowingpopulation.Overtheyears,ammonia-derivedfertilisershavebecomeindispensableformodernagriculture,currentlysustainingaroundhalftheglobalpopulation(Erismanetal.,2008).TheimpactofthesefertilisersontheglobalnitrogencycleisdiscussedinAnnexB.Figure8Productionandusesofammonia<1%˜25%˜75%RenewablesCoalandHFONaturalgasandnaphthaUreaAmmoniumnitrate(AN)Diammoniumphosphate(DAP)Ammoniumsulphate(AS)Monoammoniumphosphate(MAP)DirectuseMaritimefuelStationarypowerIndirectuseHydrogencarrierTextilesRefrigerationExplosivesdeNOxPharmaceuticalsEmerginguseMobility(fuelcellvehiclesforkliftstrainsplanesmarinevesselsetc)StationarypowergenerationHeatapplicationsCurrentusesAmmoniasynthesisPetroleumrefiningindustryIronmanufacturing85%FertilisersOthercurrentusesHydrogenusesNewuses15%<1%AmmoniaINNOVATIONOUTLOOK26Urea(CO[NH2]2)accountsforaround55%ofallammoniaproduced,andammoniumnitrate(NH4NO3)accountsforaround15%(Figure9).Othernitrogenfertilisersincludevariousnitrates,monoammoniumphosphateanddiammoniumphosphate,ammoniumsulphate,aswellasmixturesofnitrogenfertiliserssuchasureaammoniumnitratesolutionandNPKfertilisers,whichmixnitrogenwiththeotherkeynutrients,suchaspotassiumandphosphate(Yara,2018).Thepreferredfertiliserdependsstronglyonthecropandlocation.NitratesaccountfornearlyhalfofthefertiliserapplicationinEurope,whereasdirectapplicationofammoniaasfertiliseraccountsforaquarterofthetotalfertiliserapplicationintheUnitedStates(Figure9).Intherestoftheworld,ureaisthedominantfertiliser.Thefirstfossil-freefertilisersareexpectedtobeavailableinEuropein2023,whenSwedishagriculturalco-operativeLantmännenbeginsmarketingnitratefertilisersderivedfromrenewableammoniaproducedinNorwaybyYara,withananticipatedcarbonfootprintreductionof80-90%(Yara,2022).Figure9NitrogenfertiliserapplicationbyregionandproductMonoammoniumphosphateDirectapplicationOthermarketsUreaAmmoniumnitrateDiammoniumphosphateAmmoniumsulphateMonoammoniumphosphateOtherAmmoniumsulphateNitrogen-phosphorus-potassiumUreaAmmoniumnitrateNitratesUreaammoniumnitrateUSA(Mt)Brazil(Mt)India(Mt)WestcentralEurope(Mt)China(Mt)11%23%27%2%26%6%6%54%16%1%18%12%11%23%40%13%10%3%1%46%8%38%6%1%81%3%15%Disclaimer:Thismapisprovidedforillustrationpurposesonly.BoundariesandnamesshownonthismapdonotimplyanyendorsementoracceptancebyIRENA.Sources:Hatfield,2020;Yara,2018.RENEWABLEAMMONIA27Ammoniumnitrate(NH4NO3)isproducedfromammoniaandnitricacid,anintermediateproducedfromammonia.Ammoniumnitrateisthebuildingblockforallinorganicnitratefertilisers,anditdoesnotcontaincarbon,soeliminationofproductionemissionsmaybeachievedbydecarbonisingtheammoniafeedstock.Ontheotherhand,ureaisproducedbycombiningammoniawithCO2.Urearequires0.75tonnesofCO2pertonneofurea,oraround1.3tonnesofCO2feedstockpertonneofammoniafeedstock,approximatelyequaltothehigh-purityCO2streamproducedasaby-productofhydrogenproductionfromnaturalgasreforming.Integratednaturalgas-basedammonia-ureaplantsarethereforecommon,withlowon-siteCO2emissions.However,alloftheCO2containedintheureamoleculeisreleasedtotheatmospherewhenappliedasafertiliser.DecreasingthecarbonfootprintofureacanbeachievedbycombiningCO2fromothersectors,suchassteelorenergyproduction,withlow-carbonammonia(Driveretal.,2019).Ureacanbecompletelydecarbonisedbycombiningrenewableammoniawithcircularcarbonsources,suchasatmosphericCO2orbiomass.Similarchallengesfordecarbonisationexistformethanol(IRENAandMethanolInstitute,2021),causingcompetitionforcircularCO2.Atransitionfromureatootherfertilisersmayberequired(EnergyTransitionsCommission,2018).Theroleofbiomassforureaproductionisexpectedtobelimitedduetothelimitedavailabilityoflow-costbiomass(seesection2.5),andtousesinotherhard-to-abatesectors.CO2removalfromtheatmosphereviadirectaircapture(DAC)iscurrentlyexpensive,alsoduetosmall-scaleequipment.Inthelongterm,DACmaycostaroundUSD65pertonneofCO2(Fasihi,EfimovaandBreyer,2019),resultinginanaddedcostofUSD50pertonneofurea.Forreference,theureamarketpricewasaroundUSD200-300pertonnein2020,resultinginapriceincreaseofaround20%uponusingDACforCO2purification.Decarbonisingtheentirevaluechainofcurrentmarkets,fromammoniaproductiontouse,requiressignificantinfrastructurechangesaswellasmajorinvestment.Largeammoniaproducersarenowcommittingtodecreasingtheircarbonfootprint(vandenBroeck,2020;Brown,2020a).IntheUnitedStates,CFIndustries,thelargestammoniaproducerwith10Mtofcapacity,announcedthatitwillonlyproducenetzerocarbonammoniaby2050(Brown,2020b).Similarly,theNorwegianammoniaproducerYara,theworld’ssecondlargestwitharound8.5Mtofcapacityacross17units,hascommittedtoaCO2-neutralvaluechainby2050(vandenBroeck,2020).Certificationoffertilisers,governmentalregulations,carbontaxesandcarbonpermitsareincentivesforvalue-addedzero-carbonfertilisers,asthisallowsforfoodproductionwithazero-carbonvaluechain.Intheend,theimpactisdrivenbypledgesmadefornetzeroemissionsbybigfoodcompanies,aswellasbyconsumerbehaviour.Bigfoodcompaniesthathavepledgedtobecarbonneutralby2050relyoncontractfarmers,whichcanbeanincentivefordecarbonisedfertilisers.However,fertilisersareasignificantcostforfarmers,sotheriskoffertiliserpriceincreasesshouldnotbebornesolelybythefarmerbutmitigatedanddistributedthroughthevaluechain.Inadditiontosupplychaindecarbonisation,theagriculturalsectorrequiresimprovednutrientuseefficiency,ashalfofthenitrogenappliedtoafieldiscurrentlyemittedtotheenvironment(GallowayandCowling,2002).Land-usechangesaccountfornearlyhalfoftheCO2-equivalentemissionsinagriculture,however,soamainchallengeintheagriculturalsectorisbalancingtheneedforincreasedyieldsfromlimitedlandagainstimprovedfertiliseruseefficiency.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK281.2LocationsforammoniaproductionandconsumptionAmmoniaisproducedmainlyinAsia,whichhasmorethanhalfoftheglobalammoniaproductioncapacity(Figure10).TheAsia-Pacificregionalsoaccountsformorethanhalfoftheworld’sammoniaconsumption,mainlyforagriculturalactivities.Thelargestconsumersofammonia-basedfertiliserareChinaandIndia(Figure9).Otherammoniaconsumersfromlargesttosmallestare:NorthAmerica,Europe,SouthAmerica,andtheMiddleEastandAfrica.1.3Storage,transportanddistributionofammoniaAmmoniahasbeenhandledinlargequantitiesformanydecades,andthereisahighmaturityofstorage,transport,anddistributiontechnologies,aswellastraining,industrycodesandstandards,andregulationsthatmustbeobservedtoensuresafetyandsecurity(Fecke,GarnerandCox,2016;FSDF,2016;OSHA,n.d.).Ammoniaistransportedbyroad,train,shipandpipeline(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).Intotal,around25-30Mtofammoniaaretransportedannually.Around18-20Mtofammoniaaretransportedannuallybyship(Hatfield,2020).Around170shipsareinoperationthatcancarryammonia,ofwhich40carryammoniaonacontinuousbasis(Brown,2019a).Amapofammoniaimport/exportterminalsandtraderoutesisshowninFigure11.Ammoniacanbetransportedbypipeline,andbothnaturalgaspipelinesandliquidspipelinescanberetrofittedforthispurpose(Nayak-Lukeetal.,2020).Around1.5MtofammoniaistransportedannuallyintheUnitedStatesthrough3220kilometresofmildcarbon-steelpipelinesconnectingsevenstates(Acker,2021;FertilizersEurope,2012;NuStar,n.d.;Papavinasam,2014).IntheRussianFederation,ammoniaistransportedacross2424kilometresbypipelinefromaproductionsiteinTolyattitotheportcityofOdessainUkraine(FertilizersEurope,2012;HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).TheTolyatti-Odessapipelinehasacapacityof3-5Mtofammoniaannually(ArgusMedia,2019).TransportofammoniabypipelineisalsocommonacrossshortdistancesinEurope,withtypicalpipelinesspanning1-12kilometresinindustrialareas,althoughalongerpipelineof74kilometresislocatedinItaly(FertilizersEurope,2012).AmmoniaistransportedmainlybytrainwithinEurope,totallingaround1.5Mtannually(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).Figure10Ammoniaproductioncapacitybyregionin2020WestEuropeCentralEuropeEastEuropeandCentralAsiaOceaniaAfricaLatinAmericaandCaribbeanNorthAmericaWestAsiaSouthAsiaEastAsia131222202382712332Source:FAO,2019.RENEWABLEAMMONIA29Atalargescale(>5kilotonnes[kt]ofammonia),ammoniaisliquefiedbyrefrigeration,at-33°Candatmosphericpressure(Rouwenhorstetal.,2019).Thelargestammoniastoragetankscanstoreupto50kt(Appl,2011;Nielsen,1995).Largeammoniastoragefacilitiesaretypicallylocatedatportsnearammoniaproductionfacilities,withupto150ktofammoniastoragecapacitydividedovermultipletanks.Atasmallerscale(<1.5ktofammonia),ammoniaisliquefiedbypressure,storedatambienttemperatureand16-18bar(Rouwenhorstetal.,2019).IntheUnitedStates,whereammoniaisdirectlyusedasafertiliser,therearemorethan10000ammoniastoragelocations,mainlyintheMidwesterncornbelt;inIowaalone,morethan1000ammoniastoragefacilitiesexist,withatotalcapacityofaround800kt(Papavinasam,2014).Ammoniastorageisalsocommonincoastalareasatportsandimport/exportterminals,aswellasatcoal-firedpowerplants,wastewatertreatmentfacilitiesandcoldstoragefacilities.1.4SafetyaspectsAmmoniaisahazardouschemical,whichinambientconditionsisatoxicgas.Inliquidform,risksofexposureincreaseifunderpressure,aslargequantitieshavethepotentialtoberapidlyreleasedintotheair.Forthisreason,itisoftenpreferabletostoreammoniaasaliquidunderrefrigeration(-33°C)andnotunderpressure(7.5bar).Toaddresstherisksassociated,theindustryhasbeenengagedindevelopingstandardsandcodesforthesafehandlingofammoniaindifferentapplications.Sofar,ammoniahasbeenhandledsafelyformorethanacentury,withfewfatalincidentsreported1whenhandledbytrainedpersonnel(Anderson,2017).Mosthigh-profile“ammonia”accidentsreportedinthemediahaveactuallyinvolvedammoniaderivatives,suchasammoniumnitrate,insteadofammoniaitself.Ammoniacanbedetectedatconcentrationsaslowas2-5ppm(ClarkandGoff,2014),farbelowconcentrationswhereammoniaexposurecancauselastinghealthhazards.Ifammonialeaksfromarefrigeratedstoragetankatatmosphericpressure,itrapidlydispersesinthegasphasebecauseitislighterthanair(Afifetal.,2016).However,ifammonialeaksfromapressurisedstoragetank,itresultsintheformationofanaerosol,leadingtoadensecloudthatisheavierthanair(Mott,2019).1Atotalof18caseswasreportedintheperiod1994-2013;seeAnderson(2017).Figure11Ammoniashippinginfrastructure,includingaheatmapofliquidammoniacarriers,aswellastheammonialoadingandunloadingfacilitiesAmmoniaunloadingportfacilitiesAmmonialoadingfacilitiesDisclaimer:Thismapisprovidedforillustrationpurposesonly.BoundariesandnamesshownonthismapdonotimplyanyendorsementoracceptancebyIRENA.ReproducedfromRoyalSociety(2020).INNOVATIONOUTLOOK30Ammoniahasalowreactivitycomparedtootherfuelsandanarrowflammabilityrangeof15-28volume-percent(ClarkandGoff,2014;Valera-Medinaetal.,2018),reducingtheriskforfiresorexplosions.Thus,eventhoughammoniaiscorrosive,toxicandpotentiallylife-threateninguponinhalationinhighconcentrations(above0.1volume-percent(ClarkandGoff,2014;Wanetal.,2021)),theseriskscanbeeffectivelymitigatedbyusingestablishedindustrybestpractices(Fecke,GarnerandCox,2016).Inthecaseofaquaticspills,ammoniacancauseseverepHchanges,whichdisruptslifeintheaquaticecosystem.Box2RisksassociatedwithammoniausedasafuelforshipsAmmoniaiscurrentlynotapprovedasfuelbyvariousregulators,includingtheIMOandmanypowersectorauthorities.Althoughtechnologicalchallengesarenotexpectedtobeasignificanthurdle,experiencewithammoniafuelisrequiredbeforeitcanbewidelyadopted,notleasttoinformthedevelopmentofneworrevisedcodesandstandards.Hereby,operationalexperienceisessentialtoestablishprotocolsforsafehandlingandproductstandardsarerequiredtoestablishsafepuritylevelsacrossmultipleapplications.Further,emissiontestingandverificationisrequiredtoensurethatammoniacombustiondoesnotexceedacceptableemissionlevelsacrossarangeofpollutants.Theseactionsmustbecompletedbeforeitispossibletoachievebroadregulatoryapprovalofammoniaasafuel.Inthemeantime,theuseofammoniaasfuelislikelytobelimitedtodemonstrationsandpilots.Althoughammoniaisahazardouschemical,itsriskscanbemanagedasthereisahighmaturityofstorage,transport,anddistributiontechnologies,aswellastraining,industrycodesandstandards,andregulationsthatensuresafetyandsecurity.Developingsolidregulationsisatoppriorityontheagendaforshipowners&operators,technologydevelopers,ports,andparticularlyfortheclassificationsocieties,whoaredeeplyengagedinhazardidentificationanalyses,mitigationstrategiesandcleanenergytechnologiestoensurethattheuseofammoniaasafuelmeetsexistingsafetystandards.Inthiscontext,theclassificationsocietiesarestudyingtherisksanddevelopingframeworksforthefutureammoniacode.Accordingly,numerousclassificationsocietiesincludingDNV(DetNorskeVeritas),ABS(AmericanBureauofShipping),LloydsRegister,RINA(RegistroItalianoNavale),KoreanRegister,ClassNK,andBureauVeritashaverecentlyproduceddocuments.Besides,theAmmoniaEnergyAssociationistrackingapproximately20separateindustry,governmentandNGOprojectsaroundtheworldthatlookatthesafetyconsiderationsofammoniaasamaritimefuel.Accordingly,muchoftheactivityintheareaisdrivenbySingapore.TheportofSingaporeservesasalivinglabwithaphysicalanddigitaltestenvironment,andasaregulatorysandbox,todevelopsafebunkeringproceduresforammoniaandgainoperationalexperience.Forinstance,acoalitionoftheAmericanBureauofShipping,NanyangTechnologicalUniversity,SingaporeandtheAmmoniaSafetyandTrainingInstitute(ASTI)aimstostudythepotentialofammoniaforSingapore,exploringsupply,bunkeringandsafetychallengeswithammoniaasamaritimefuel.Safetyprotocolsandpossiblegapsinthesupplychainwillbeidentifiedwithinthescopeoftheproject.ExxonMobil,HoeghLNG,MANEnergySolutionsSingapore,JurongPort,PSASingaporeandITOCHUGrouparecontributingtechnicalinformation.RENEWABLEAMMONIA31INNOVATIONOUTLOOK322.PRODUCTIONPROCESSES,TECHNOLOGYSTATUSANDCOSTSKeyfindingsTheHaber-Boschprocesscombineshydrogenandnitrogentoformammonia.•Intoday’sammoniaplants,fossilfuelsarebothreformedtoproducehydrogenfeedstockandcombustedtopowertheprocess.•Oftheworld’sammoniaplants,72%usenaturalgas,emittingonaverage1.6-1.8tonnesofCO2pertonneofammonia,and22%usecoal,emittingonaverage4.0tonnesofCO2pertonneofammonia.Fossil-basedammoniaplantscanbedecarbonisedwithtoday’stechnologies.•Renewablehydrogencanbeintroducedinafossil-basedammoniaplant,replacing10-20%ofthenaturalgas.Thisconcepthasalreadybeenimplemented,inlate2021,byFertiberiaatPuertollanoinSpain.•Inanaturalgas-basedammoniaplant,two-thirdsoftheCO2isfromhydrogenproduction(processgas),whichispureandeasytocapture,butone-thirdoftheCO2isfromcombustion(fluegas),whichisdiluteandexpensivetocapture.•Alternativetechnologiesforreformingnaturalgas,includingautothermalreforming(ATR)andeSMR(electrifiedsteammethanereforming),couldreduceoreliminatethedilutefluegasemissions.MethanepyrolysiswouldessentiallyeliminateallCO2emissions,producinghydrogenandsolidcarboninstead.•Manyfossil-basedammoniaplantsalreadyusecarboncaptureandutilisation(CCU)orsourcehydrogenfromby-productorwastestreams.Globally,theinstalledannualcapacityismorethan4Mtoflower-carbonammonia.•Carboncaptureandstorage(CCS)istechnologicallyandeconomicallyfeasibleinthepresenceofacarbontax,andmanynewammoniaplantshavebeenproposedusingCCS.ThecombinedcapacityofannouncedCCSammoniaplantsismorethan5Mtoflow-carbonammonia.Renewableammoniaisontracktodominateallnewcapacityafter2025.•Renewableammoniaisamature,century-oldtechnology.Commercialammoniaplantsusedalkalineelectrolysersasbigas150MW,manytimeslargerthananyelectrolyserinservicetodayandpoweredbybaseloadhydropower.•Mostoftheproposedrenewableammoniaplants,however,usevariablesolarphotovoltaicsandwindtopowervariouselectrolysistechnologies,includingsolidoxideandpolymerelectrolytemembrane(PEM).RENEWABLEAMMONIA33Technologicalandoperationalinnovations,aswellascarefulsiteselectionanddesign,canovercomethechallengespresentedbyvariability.•Around15Mtoflow-carbonammoniacapacityhasbeenannouncedtobeoperationalby2030.Thetotalannouncedrenewableammoniacapacityis71Mt,likelytobeoperationalbefore2040,butinvestmentdecisionsarestillpendingformostprojects.•Renewableammoniafrombiomassgasificationisalsoamature,century-oldtechnology,althoughfuturedeploymentmaybelimitedtoopportunitieswherelocation-specificconditionsovercometheeconomichurdles.Renewableammoniaisalreadycostcompetitivewithotherzero-carbonfuels,butnotwithfossil-basedammonia.•TheestimatedcostofrenewableammoniaissettodecreasefromarangeofUSD720-1400pertonne(USD39-75pergigajoule[GJ])in2020toUSD475-950pertonne(USD25-51perGJ)in2030.By2050,theproductioncostofrenewableammoniaisexpectedtoreacharoundUSD310pertonne(USD17perGJ),foralarge-scaleplantinalocationwithexcellentrenewableenergyresources.•Costreductionsforrenewableammoniaaredrivenprimarilyby:a)scale-uptogigawatt-size,b)thecostofrenewableelectricity,c)thecostofelectrolysers,d)theefficiencyofelectrolysers,ande)optimisedstorage,buffering,sizingandflexibilityoftheHaber-Boschammoniasynthesisloop.•Inoptimallocations,renewableammoniacouldbecostcompetitivewithfossil-basedammoniawithCCSfrom2030.•Low-carbonammonia,whetherrenewableorfossil-basedwithCCS,iscurrentlynotcostcompetitiveattheconventionalcommoditypriceofUSD200-300pertonne.Therefore,itisexpectedthatseparatemarketswillneedtodevelop,supportedbycertificationschemes,contractsfordifferenceandothermechanisms.Ammoniacanbeproducedfromvariousfossil-basedhydrogensources,suchasnaturalgas,coal,naphthaandheavyfueloil.Decarbonisedhydrogensourcesincludebiomassandwater.Thenitrogenispurifiedfromair.ToproduceammoniausingtheHaber-Boschprocess,hydrogenandnitrogenarecombinedathightemperatureandpressure(350-500°Cand100-400bar)inthepresenceofanironcatalyst(Appl,1999;Liu,2013;Nielsen,1995).Theammoniaissubsequentlycondensedandstored.VariousproductionpathwaysareshowninFigure12.Coloursarecommonlyusedtorefertodifferentenergyinputsandtechnologiesforhydrogenaswellasforammoniaproduction.Renewableammonia,whetherproducedfrombiomassorrenewableelectricity,isgenerallytermedgreen.Ontheotherhand,brownammonia(fossil)canbegrey(naturalgas)orblack(coal).Colourcodingbecomesincreasinglycomplexasfossilammoniaisdecarbonised,becomingblue(naturalgaswithCCS)orturquoise(methanepyrolysis).Alternativeinputs–suchaselectricityfromnuclearenergyorfromthegrid,hydrogenfromwasteorby-productstreams,andheat–arelesseasilycommunicatedwithcolours.Inpractice,manyammoniaplantsareintegratedhybrids,incorporatingmorethanonecolour.Moreover,whilesomecoloursrefertocarbon-freeinputsorcarbonabatementtechnologies,thesecolourslacklegaldefinitionanddonotcommunicatethegreenhousegasemissionintensityoftheproduct,whichcanvarygreatly(e.g.blueammoniawitha70%carboncapturerateversusblueINNOVATIONOUTLOOK34ammoniawitha98%carboncapturerate)(seesection3.2).Forthisreason,robustcertificationschemesthatcancalculateandverifytheemissionintensityofammoniawillbeessential(seesection3.3).Formostlyeconomicreasons,thehydrogenfeedstockforammoniaisproducedalmostentirelyfromfossilfuelstoday.Around72%ofammoniaproductionusesnaturalgas;coalaccountsforaround22%;heavyfueloilandnaphthaaccountforaround4%and1%,respectively,while1%ofammoniaisderivedfromotherfeedstocks(Biceretal.,2016).MostammoniaproductioncapacityusingcoalislocatedinChina,wherevastcoalreservesareavailable(Zhouetal.,2010).Productionfromnaturalgasisthenormintherestoftheworld.Ammoniaproductioncurrentlyemitsaround0.5GtofCO2annually,or1%ofglobalCO2emissions(RoyalSociety,2020),makingammoniathelargestCO2emitterinthechemicalindustry.Ammoniaisconsideredoneofthe“bigFigure12ProductionpathwaysofammoniafromvariousfeedstocksBiomassRenewableelectricityRenewablehydrogenHNuclearhydrogenHCertificationrequiredtoaccountforcarbonintensityNHFossilhydrogenHFossilhydrogenwithreducedemissionsHNuclearpowerNaturalgas(naphtha)Coal(heavyfueloil)CarboncaptureandstorageCarboncaptureandstorageGasificationreformingElectrolysisElectrolysisThermochemicalcyclesMethanepyrolysisEthanecrackerschlorineplantsElectrifiedsteammethanereformingReformingGasificationNRENEWABLEAMMONIA35four”industrialprocesses–alongwithcement,steelandethyleneproduction–thatneedadecarbonisationplanandimplementationinordertomeetnetzerocarbonemissiontargetsby2050(dePeeetal.,2018).Thisdecarbonisationcanbeachievedbytransitioningammoniafeedstocksfromfossil-basedtorenewablehydrogen.2.1Coal-basedammoniaproductionTechnologyandproductionprocessToproduceammoniafromcoal,thecoalmustbeconvertedtosynthesisgas(syngas),amixtureofcarbonmonoxide(CO),hydrogen(H2),andcarbondioxide(CO2),followingpre-treatmenttoremoveimpuritiesandpoisons.Airisaddedtoprovidenitrogen(N2).Thesyngasisobtainedbycoalgasificationprocessesthatcombinepartialoxidationandsteamtreatmentathightemperature(800-1800°Cdependingontheprocessandfeedstock).Substantialpre-treatmentisrequiredforcoalfeedstock,toremoveimpuritiesandpoisons.TheCOisconvertedtoCO2viathewater-gasshiftreaction,andtheCO2issubsequentlyremovedfromthemixture.TheresultingmixtureofH2andN2isfedtotheammoniasynthesissection.Onaverage,around4tonnesofCO2areproducedpertonneofammoniaproducedfromcoal(Brightling,2018;IRENA,2020a).CostsThecapitalintensityofacoal-basedammoniaplantisaroundUSD2900perannualtonneofammoniacapacityforaplantwithacapacityof630ktofammoniaperyear(Appl,1999).ThespecificcostofammoniaproducedfromcoalrangesfromUSD225toUSD315pertonneofammonia,dependingonthecoalfeedstockcost,rangingfromUSD0.5toUSD2.5permillionBtu(Appl,1999).ThecostofCO2-equivalentemissionsforcoal-basedammoniaproductionisalsoestimated,assumingUSD75pertonneofCO2,resultinginanCO2costofUSD300pertonneofammoniaandacostrangeofUSD525-615pertonneofammoniaforcoal-basedammoniaproductionwithcarbonpricing.CurrentinstalledcapacityTheglobalcoal-basedammoniaproductioncapacityisestimatedtobearound53Mt.Coal-basedammoniaproductionismainlylocatedinChina,wherevastcoalreservesareavailable(Zhouetal.,2010).Thesecoal-basedammoniasynthesisplantsaretypicallyrelativelysmall,energyinefficientandyoung(IEA,2021a).Theytypicallyconsume55-65GJpertonneofammonia(Ma,HasanbeigiandChen,2015),haveacapacityintherangeof100-300ktofammoniaperyear(Zeng,2014)andhaveanaverageageofonly12years(IEA,2021a).Chinarecentlyintroducedanemissiontradingsystem(ETS)toputapriceonCO2emissions(ArgusMedia,2021a).Althoughcurrentpricesarelow,increasestomatchthecurrentpricelevelsoftheEuropeanUnion(EU)wouldresultinaprohibitivelyhighcostofUSD525-615pertonneofammonia.AlthoughCCScanprovidemitigation,productioncostswouldstillbeintherangeofUSD360-450pertonneofammonia.Forreference,renewableammoniaproductionisexpectedtocostbelowUSD500pertonneinChinabeyond2030(Fasihietal.,2021),whichsuggeststhatcoal-basedammoniaproductionmaybephasedoutbeyond2030.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK362.2Naturalgas-basedammoniaproductionTechnologyandproductionprocessToproduceammoniafromnaturalgas,naturalgasisconvertedtosyngasbyanumberofprocesses,includingsteammethanereforming(SMR),partialoxidation(POX),autothermalreforming(ATR),dryreformingofmethane(DRM),oracombinationthereof(Rostrup-Nielsen,1984).Airisaddedtoprovidenitrogen(N2).Theseprocessestypicallyoperateattemperaturesabove800°C.TheCOisconvertedtoCO2viathewater-gasshiftreaction,andtheCO2issubsequentlyremovedfromthemixture.TheresultingmixtureofH2andN2isfedtotheammoniasynthesissection.Typicallyaround1.6-1.8tonnesofCO2-equivalentisproducedduringammoniasynthesis.Includingupstreamemissionsfromnaturalgasextractionanddistribution,roughly2.2tonnesofCO2-equivalentisproducedpertonneofammoniaproducedfromnaturalgas(seesection3.2).Astate-of-the-art,world-scalenaturalgasammoniaplanthasaproductioncapacityofaround2000to3300tonnesperdayor0.7to1.2Mtperyear(Brightling,2018).Thelargestsingle-trainammoniaplantshaveacapacityof3760tonnesperdayor1.3Mtperyear(ThyssenKrupp,2019).Novellarge-scaletechnologyusingATRmayallowforammoniaproductioncapacitiesupto4000to6000tonnesperdayor1.4to2.1Mtperyear(HaldorTopsøeA/S,2020).Thelargestammoniaproductionsitesoperatingtodaycontainmultipleammoniaplants,resultinginsitecapacityashighas4.0Mtperyear.CostsNaturalgas-basedammoniaplantstypicallyhavecapacitiesbetween200ktand1200ktofammoniaperyear.Suchlarge-scaleplantsbenefitfromeconomiesofscale–forexample,buildinglargerplantsdecreasesthecapitalinvestmentperamountofammoniaproduct.Thecapitalintensityofanaturalgas-basedammoniaplantistypicallyUSD1500toUSD2000pertonneofammoniaproducedannually(Appl,1999;ArgusMedia,2020;Brown,n.d.).Thecostofnaturalgas-basedammoniaproductionisintherangeofUSD110-340pertonneofammonia,dependingonnaturalgaspricesrangingfromUSD2toUSD10permillionBtu(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).Thecostofnaturalgas-basedammoniaproductioninEuropeandtheUnitedStatesfortheperiod2010to2021isshowninFigure13.In2021,thecostofammoniaproductioninEuropeandAsiaincreasedsubstantiallyduetohighnaturalgasprices(Thapliyal,2021),resultingincurtailmentofsomeEuropeanammoniaproduction.ThecostofCO2-equivalentemissionsfornaturalgas-basedammoniaisalsoestimated,basedonaCO2costofUSD75pertonneofCO2.ThisresultsinanaddedcostofUSD165pertonneofammonia,resultinginacostrangeofUSD275-505pertonneofammoniafornaturalgas-basedammoniaproductionwithcarbonpricing.CurrentinstalledcapacityTheglobalnaturalgas-basedammoniaproductioncapacityisestimatedtobearound132Mtperyear.Mostnewlybuiltammoniaplantsarelocatedinplaceswithlow-costnaturalgasofUSD3permillionBtuorbelow,suchascountriesinNorthAfrica,Nigeria,NorthAmerica,theMiddleEastandtheformerSovietUnion.Europeannaturalgas-basedammoniaplantsaresomeoftheoldestplantsbutarealsoamongthemostefficient(IEA,2021a).Newlybuiltplantsaretypicallyverybig,tobenefitfromeconomiesofscale.Developmentofnewnaturalgasfrackingtechnologieshasledtoanexpansionoftheindustryinthelastdecade.RENEWABLEAMMONIA372.3Lower-carbonfossil-basedammoniaproductionTechnologyandproductionprocessVariousnon-renewabletechnologypathwaysexistforammoniaproductionwithreducedemissions.ExamplesincludeconventionalproductionwiththeadditionofCCS,CCUforenhancedoilrecoveryormethanolsynthesis,orreplacingthefeedstockproductionprocessbyusingby-producthydrogenfromotherprocesses,suchasethanecrackers,chlorineplantsandplasticgasificationplants(Brown,2018a;Elgowainy,2017andIRENAdata).Alternatively,electrifiedsteammethanereforming(eSMR)canbeadoptedtoreducethecarbonfootprintoftheSMRunitbyaboutathird,usingrenewableelectricitytosupplytheheatinputofthereformer(Wismannetal.,2019),sothatonlyconcentratedCO2isproduced,enablinglow-costCCS.Lastly,low-emissionhydrogencanbeproducedviamethanepyrolysis,whichconvertsnaturalgastosolidcarbonandhydrogen(Schneideretal.,2020).InaconventionalSMR-basedammoniaproductionunit,therearetwostreamsofCO2.Aroundtwo-thirdsoftheCO2isgeneratedinconcentratedformduringhydrogenproduction(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).Theremainingone-thirdoftheCO2isgeneratedindiluteformuponburningnaturalgasforheatingpurposes,andthisstreamisgenerallynotcapturedinaconventionalammoniaplant,resultinginanoverallcapturerangeofaround65%.IfthediluteCO2isalsocaptured,anoverallcapturerateofaround95%isachievable.Thus,themajorityofCO2generatedduringammoniaproductionisalreadycapturedinhundredsofammoniaplantsworldwide,suchthatthistechnologyiswellestablished(IRENA2020c).eSMRhasthepotentialtoincreasetheCO2capturerateto98%.Ontheotherhand,ATR-basedammoniaproductioncombineshydrogenproductionandheatinginasinglereactor,resultinginasingleconcentratedCO2stream.ThisdecreasesthecostofCO2captureandincreasestheeffectivecapturerateto98%(HydrogenCouncil,2021).Figure13Costofnaturalgas-basedammoniaproduction,2010-2021Ammoniaproductioncost(USDt)EuropeEuropeUSDt-COUSUSUSDt-CONote:USD75pertonneofCO₂isaddedasanindicationofcurrentcarbonpricingintheEU.Source:CAPEXandOPEXfromHaldorTopsøeetal.(2020).INNOVATIONOUTLOOK38CostsThecostofCCSforacoal-basedammoniaplantisaroundUSD135pertonneofammonia2(notincludingCO2penaltiesfromfugitiveCO2emissions),whichwouldresultinanammoniaproductioncostrangeofUSD360-450pertonneforcoal-basedammoniaproductionwithCCS.TheCCScostforSMR-basedammoniaplantsisanestimatedUSD100-150pertonneofammonia3forthediluteCO2stream(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020),whichresultsinanammoniaproductioncostrangeofUSD235-465pertonneofammoniafromSMRwithCCS.ThecostofCCSforATR-basedammoniaisaroundUSD40-80pertonneofammonia,4resultinginanammoniaproductioncostrangeofUSD170-400pertonneofammoniafromATR.AsshowninFigure14,thecurrentCO2costintheEUclosesthecostgapforCCS(ISPT,n.d.),especiallyforATR-basedammonia,makingitaneconomicallyviableoptionintoday’smarket.ACO2penaltyofaround:•USD60-90pertonneofCO2isrequiredtobridgethegapbetweenfossil-basedammoniawithunmitigatedemissionsandfossil-basedammoniawithCCS;and•USD150pertonneofCO2wouldbridgethegapbetweenfossil-basedandrenewableammonia(SayginandGielen,2021).2Assuminga95%capturerateof3.8tonnesofCO2pertonneofammonia,aswellasatransportandstoragecostofUSD25-50pertonneofCO2(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).3Estimateassumesa95%capturerateof1.6tonnesofCO2pertonneofammonia(IRENA,n.d.),andincludingatransportandstoragecostofUSD25-50pertonneofCO2.4Estimateassumesa98%capturerateofthe1.6tonnesofCO2pertonneofammonia(Brightling,2018;HydrogenCouncil,2021),aswellasatransportandstoragecostofUSD25-50pertonneofCO2(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).Figure14CO₂costovertimeintheEU,andtheeffectoftheCO₂costonthecarbonoffsetcostforfossil-basedammoniawithcarboncaptureandstorageCarbonprice(USDtCO)Carbonosetbenefit(USDtammonia)CCScostrangeSMRCCScostrangeATRNote:AssumesaEURtoUSDconversionfactorof1.18.RENEWABLEAMMONIA39Fossil-basedammoniawithCCScanbeespeciallyinterestingforplaceswherethenaturalgaspriceisusuallybelowUSD3permillionBtu,suchasincountriesinNorthAfrica,NorthAmerica,andtheMiddleEast,aswellasintheRussianFederationandTrinidadandTobago,resultingincostsbelowUSD300pertonneofammoniaforfossil-basedammoniawithCCS(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).Anindustrialconsortiumexpectsthatthemarketvalueofnaturalgas-basedammoniawithCCSwillbearoundUSD350-400pertonneofammonia(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).Ontheotherhand,coal-basedammoniawithCCSalwayscostsmorethanUSD300pertonneofammonia.Thus,coal-basedammoniawithCCSisnotexpectedtoplayasignificantroleindecarbonisingammoniadespitethefactthatCO2captureratesofupto99%canbeachievedforcoalgasification(IEAGreenhouseGasR&DProgramme,2007).Atcertainlocations,by-producthydrogenfrom,forinstance,ethanecrackerscanbeavailableatfuelvalue(≤USD10permillionBtu),andanammoniaplantcanbeestablishedwithonlynitrogenpurificationandanammoniasynthesisloop.Thus,thecapitalintensityistypicallybelowUSD1000pertonneofammoniaannuallyforlarge-scaleplants.ThecostofhydrogenshouldbeatmostUSD1.1perkilogramofhydrogentoproduceammoniaatthemarketvalueofUSD250pertonneofammonia.CurrentinstalledcapacityandannouncedcapacityInrecentyears,variousprojectshavebeencommissionedforammoniaproductionwithareducedcarbonfootprint.Inmostcasesthehydrogenisaby-productfromanethanecrackerorCO2isusedforenhancedoilrecovery,whileoneotherplantalsouseshydrogenderivedfromwasteplastic(Table1).By-producthydrogenfromanethanecrackerhasanestimated25%lowerCO2footprintthanhydrogenfromSMR(Elgowainy,2017).Thefirstplanttoutiliseby-producthydrogenfromanethanecrackerislocatedinJoffre,Canada,whichstartedoperationin1987andhasaproductioncapacityofaround490ktofammoniaannually(Adair,2020).In2018,YarastartedoperatinganammoniaplantinFreeport,UnitedStates,alsoutilisingby-producthydrogenfromthenearbyBASFethanecrackerfacility(Brown,2018b),withacapacityofaround750ktofammoniaannually.In2019,Yaraalsostartedusingby-producthydrogenfromDowChemicalsatitsSluiskilfacility,producingaround22ktofreduced-carbonammoniaannually,whichrepresentsasmallportionofthetotalcapacityof1500ktofammoniaannuallyatSluiskil(Brown,2019b).InJapan,ShowaDenkohasproducedammoniafromwasteplasticgasificationsince2003,resultinginacarbonfootprintaround35%lowerthanSMR-basedammonia(ShowaDenkoK.K.,n.d.).Theplantcapacityisaround60ktofammoniaannually,whichissoldasapremiumNOX-reductionproductunderthetradenameEcoAnnTM.AnotherexampleistheuseofCO2fromSMRforenhancedoilrecoveryorformethanolproduction.HydrogenwithCO2usedforenhancedoilrecoveryhasanestimated62.5%lowerCO2footprint(Elgowainy,2017).ThefirstplanttoproduceammoniawithCO2utilisationviaenhancedoilrecoveryislocatedinEnid,Oklahoma,UnitedStates,whereaplantstartedproducing285ktofammoniaannuallyin1982(MIT,2016).InBeulah,NorthDakota,anotherammoniaplantwithCO2utilisationviaenhancedoilrecoverystartedoperatingin1991(Brown,2016).NutrienoperatestwosimilarplantsinGeismar,Louisiana,whichstartedoperationin2013withaproductioncapacityof200ktofammoniaannually,andinRedwater,Alberta,Canada,whichstartedoperationoftheCO2trunklinein2020withaproductioncapacityof245ktofammoniaannually(Adair,2020).In2021,SAFCOstartedoperatingalower-carbonammoniafacilityinSaudiArabia,whereCO2isusedforenhancedoilrecoveryandmethanolsynthesis(Herh,2020).VariousnewCCSprojectshavebeenannouncedoverthepastfewyears,withsomealreadyrealised,allowingfortheproductionofammoniawithalowcarbonfootprint.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK40Forexample,OCIrecentlyannouncedtheproductionof365ktofammoniaannuallyfromnaturalgaswithCCS(Ewing,2021).HorisontEnergyandHaldorTopsøeannouncedanotherammoniaplantbasedonATRwithCCS,whichisexpectedtobeoperationalby2025,producing1000-1400ktofammoniaannually(HorisontEnergi,2021a).Recently,itwasannouncedthatthiscapacitycouldbetripledto3000ktannually(HorisontEnergi,2021b).CFIndustrieshasannouncedfeasibilitystudiesfortheInceandBillinghamammoniaplantsintheUnitedKingdom,totallingaround1.0MtofCO2sequesteredonanannualbasis,therebyproducingaround875ktoflow-carbonammoniaannually(CFFertilisers,2021).Yaraisinvestigatingnaturalgas-basedammoniaproductionwithCCSatitsPilbarasite,toprovideJapanesepowerproducerJERAwithlow-carbonammoniaforco-firinginitscoal-firedpowerplantsby2024-2025(Hasegawa,2021).ADNOCannounceda1000ktlow-carbonammoniaplantinRuwais,UnitedArabEmirates,basedonnaturalgaswithCCS(ADNOC,2021).Theplantisexpectedtobeoperationalby2025.Recently,afeasibilitystudyonalow-carbonammoniaplantwasannouncedinCentralSulawesi,Indonesia.TheCO2emittedfromhydrogenproductionfromnaturalgaswillbecapturedandstored,producingupto660ktoflow-carbonammoniaannually(ArgusMedia,2021b).Alow-carbonammoniaplantbasedonnaturalgaswithCCSwasrecentlyproposedinPortBonython,Australia,potentiallyproducing16-1235ktammoniaannually(Pendlebury,MearesandTyrrell,2021).AnammoniaplantwasrecentlyannouncedinNebraska,UnitedStates,basedonmethanepyrolysistechnology,inwhichnaturalgasisconvertedtohydrogenandcarbonblackinsteadofCO2(Philibert,2020a;Schneideretal.,2020).Thecarbonfootprintofthisprocessduringammoniaproductionislow,asthecarbonblackisusedin,forinstance,steel,cartyres,andprinters,andthusnotemittedtotheatmosphere.Notably,around25-45%moremethaneisrequiredformethanepyrolysisascomparedtoSMRandATR(IEA,2021a),resultinginhigherupstreammethaneemissions.Ascarbonblackproductioniscurrentlyapollutingindustry,utilisingmethanepyrolysisdecreasestheenvironmentalfootprintofbothhydrogenandcarbonblack.ThecompanyMonolithMaterialsplanstousethermalplasmatechnologyformethanepyrolysis,andthehydrogenwillbeusedtoproduceabout275ktofammoniafrom2024(Brown,2020c).HazerGrouprecentlyannouncedbiomethaneproductionatawastewatertreatmentplant,whichwillalsobecombinedwithmethanepyrolysistoproduceammonia(HazerGroupLtd.,2018).RENEWABLEAMMONIA41Table1Overviewofexistingandplannedfacilitiesforfossil-basedammoniawithalowercarbonfootprint(existingcapacityof2.6Mt/yr;plannedcapacityof17.4Mt/yr)LocationCompanyStart-upyearCapacity(kt/yr)CarbonfootprintreductionrelativetoSMR(%)HydrogensourceSourceEnid,USKochNitrogenCompany,ChaparralEnergy198228562.5%CO2isusedforenhancedoilrecovery.(MIT,2016)Joffre,CanadaNutrien198749025%By-producthydrogenfromethanecracker.(Adair,2020)Beulah,USDakotaGasificationCompany199135562.5%CO2isusedforenhancedoilrecovery.(Brown,2016)Kawasaki,JapanShowaDenko20036035%65%ofhydrogenisfromrecycledplastic.(ShowaDenkoK.K.,n.d.)Coffeyville,USCVREnergy,ChaparralEnergy,BlueSource201337562.5%CO2isusedforenhancedoilrecovery.(MIT,2016)Geismar,USNutrien201320062.5%CO2isusedforenhancedoilrecovery.(Adair,2020)Freeport,USYara,BASF201875025%By-producthydrogenfromethanecracker.(Brown,2018b)Sluiskil,NetherlandsYara,Dow201922(onlypartofexistingfacility)25%By-producthydrogenfromethanecracker.(Brown,2019b)Redwater,CanadaNutrien202024562.5%CO2isusedforenhancedoilrecovery.(Adair,2020)Jubail,SaudiArabiaSAFCO2021116062.5%CO2isusedformethanolsynthesisandenhancedoilrecovery.(Herh,2020)Beaumont,USOCINitrogen2021365≥70%HydrogenisproducedfromnaturalgaswithCCS.(Ewing,2021)Nebraska,USMonolithMaterials2024275≥70%Hydrogenisproducedbymethanepyrolysis.(Brown,2020c)Pilbara,AustraliaYara(revamp)2024-2025orearlier≤800≥70%HydrogenisproducedfromnaturalgaswithCCS,tobeusedbyJERA(Hasegawa,2021).(Hasegawa,2021)Note:SMR=steammethanereforming;ATR=autothermalreforming;CCS=carboncaptureandstorage;CCUS=carboncapture,utilisationandstorage;TBD=tobedetermined;US=UnitedStates;UAE=UnitedArabEmirates;UK=UnitedKingdom.ThisconcernstheCO2emissionsfromthemethanefeedstock.Thecarbonintensityalsodependsontheelectricitysource(Biceretal.,2016);seealsosection3.2.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK42LocationCompanyStart-upyearCapacity(kt/yr)CarbonfootprintreductionrelativetoSMR(%)HydrogensourceSourceFinnmark,NorwayHorisontEnergy,HaldorTopsøe20251000-1400≥70%HydrogenisproducedwithATRwithCCS.(HorisontEnergi,2021a)Ruwais,UAEADNOC20251000≥70%HydrogenisproducedfromnaturalgaswithCCUS.(ADNOC,2021)CentralSulawesi,IndonesiaPAU,Mitsubishi,Jogmec,BandongIoT2026orbefore≤660≥70%HydrogenisproducedfromnaturalgaswithCCS.(ArgusMedia,2021b)WesternAustraliaHazerGroupTBDTBD≥70%Hydrogenisproducedbymethanepyrolysis.(HazerGroupLtd.,2021)Billingham,UKCFIndustries(revamp)TBD595≥70%HydrogenisproducedfromnaturalgaswithCCS;700000tonnesofCO2sequesteredannually.(Reed,2021)Ince,UKCFIndustries(revamp)TBD280≥70%HydrogenisproducedfromnaturalgaswithCCS;330000tonnesofCO2sequesteredannually.(CFFertilisers,2021)PortBonython,AustraliaTBDTBD16–1235≥70%HydrogenisproducedbyCCS.(Pendlebury,MearesandTyrrell,2021)Note:SMR=steammethanereforming;ATR=autothermalreforming;CCS=carboncaptureandstorage;CCUS=carboncapture,utilisationandstorage;TBD=tobedetermined;US=UnitedStates;UAE=UnitedArabEmirates;UK=UnitedKingdom.ThisconcernstheCO2emissionsfromthemethanefeedstock.Thecarbonintensityalsodependsontheelectricitysource(Biceretal.,2016);seealsosection3.2.Hydroelectricammoniahaveelectrolysercapacitiesofupto150MW,manytimeslargerthananyelectrolysercurrentlyinserviceRENEWABLEAMMONIA432.4RenewableammoniaproductionfromrenewableelectricityTechnologyandproductionprocessToproducerenewableammonia,water(H2O)issplitintohydrogen(H2)andoxygen(O2)viaelectrolysis.Variouselectrolysistechnologiescanbeused(Schmidtetal.,2017a),whichvaryintemperatureandenergyconsumption(seesection3.1).Nitrogen(N2)ispurifiedfromair.ThehydrogenandnitrogenareconvertedtoammoniainaHaber-Boschsynthesisloop.AschematicoverviewisshowninFigure15.Theproductionofhydrogenfromwaterusingelectrolysisrequiresaround1.6tonnesofwaterpertonneofammonia(Ghavametal.,2021).Additionalwaterisrequiredforcoolingtheammoniaplant,andsupportsystems.Waterdesalinationmayberequiredpriortofeedingwatertotheelectrolyser.TherequiredfootprintofrenewablesisdiscussedinAnnexE.Asearlyas1920,renewableammoniahasbeenproducedwithelectricityfromhydropower(Ernst,1928;ErnstandSherman,1927).In1930,renewableammoniaaccountedforaroundone-thirdoftheglobalammoniaproduction(Ernst,1928),whilecoal-basedammoniaaccountedfortheremainder.Mostelectrolysis-basedammoniaplantswereabandonedwhennaturalgasbecameabundantlyavailableandatalowercost(Krishnanetal.,2020).HydroelectricammoniaplantswerelocatedinCanada,Egypt,France,Iceland,India,Japan,theRepublicofKorea,Norway,Switzerland,theUnitedStates,theformerYugoslavia,andZimbabwe,withelectrolysercapacitiesofupto150MW,manytimeslargerthananyelectrolysercurrentlyinservice(Rouwenhorst,TravisandLefferts,2022).Figure15SchematicoverviewofstepsinvolvedinammoniasynthesisfromwaterandairElectrolyserOO,HOHeatpurgegasPowerPowerPowerAirpowerHOOandHOremovalOandHOremovalCompressionNHsynthesisHHNHNHReproducedfromRouwenhorstetal.(2020a)andSousaCardosoetal.(2021).INNOVATIONOUTLOOK44Theonly“classical”electrolysis-basedHaber-BoschplantstillinoperationislocatedinCusco,Peru,whichwasbuiltin1962(below)(Brown,2020d).Inthelastfewyears,however,numerousnewrenewableammoniaplantshavebeenannounced(Table2).CostsTherateatwhichrenewableammoniaplantsarecurrentlybeingannouncediscloselylinkedtothespeedatwhichthecostofrenewableelectricityisdecreasing.Renewableammoniamayalreadybecostcompetitivewithimportedfossil-basedammoniainsomelocations(SmithandTorrente-Murciano,2021).Today,renewableammoniaproductioncostsfornewplantsareestimatedtobeintherangeofUSD720-USD1400pertonne,fallingtoUSD310-610pertonneby2050.Electricityisthedominantoperationalcostfactorforlarge-scalerenewableammoniaproduction,whichtypicallyaccountsformorethanhalfofthecostofrenewableammonia.Forthisreason,unlikefossil-basedammoniaplants,manyoftherenewableammoniaplantscurrentlyunderdevelopmentincludetheelectricitygeneratingcapacitywithintheproposedinvestment,effectivelyshiftingelectricityinputfromanoperationalcost(OPEX)toacapitalcost(CAPEX).Theinvestmentforarenewableammoniaplant,excludingpowergeneration,isdominatedbyeithertheelectrolyserortheammoniasynthesisloop.Thecostofthesynthesisloopdominatesforsmall-scaleplants(<10ktperyearofammonia),whilethecostoftheelectrolyserdominatesforlargerplants.Thecapitalcostofelectrolysersisexpectedtodecreaseinthecomingdecades(Schmidtetal.,2017a)(Figure17).Thecombinedinvestmentcostofnitrogenpurification,waterdesalinationandammoniastorageaccountsforonlyaroundUSD5-30pertonneofammoniaandisminorcomparedtothecostofelectrolysisandtheammoniasynthesisloop(BatoolandWetzels,2019;Morgan,2013).Image1Electrolysis-basedhydrogenproductionforrenewableammoniaproductioninCusco,PeruImagecourtesyofIndustrieHauteTechnologie.RENEWABLEAMMONIA45Notably,thecapacityfactormayhaveasignificantimpactontheinvestmentcostofelectrolysis-basedammoniaproduction.Thisisduetothevariabilityofrenewablessuchassolarandwindenergy,which,withoutadditionalbufferingandstorage,impliesthatannualammoniaproductionwillbelowerthanthenameplatecapacity.Thus,anislandedrenewableammoniaplant–forexample,notconnectedtothegrid–istypicallyoversizedtoaccountforthelowerproductivity,resultinginahighercapitalintensity.Itisimportanttohaveahighcapacityfactortolimitthecapitalintensityofarenewableammoniaplant.Combinedsolarandwindresourcescanbeusedtomaximisethefullloadcapacityfractionoftheelectrolysertoaround70%(ArmijoandPhilibert,2020;Tancock,2020).Thereisanimportantdifferenceinthebusinesscaseoffossil-basedammoniaandrenewableammonia.Inthecaseoffossil-basedammonia,thefeedstockispurchasedduringoperationsandmaybevariableincost.Onlythehydrogenplant(e.g.theSMRorgasificationunit)andammoniaplantareconstructedupfront.Forrenewableammonia,ontheotherhand,allassetsmaybeconstructedupfront,includingelectricitygenerationassets,implyingthatthecostofrenewableammoniaproductionisdrivenmainlybythecapitalinvestment.Asaresult,theweightedaveragecapitalcost(WACC)hasaprofoundeffectonthecostofarenewableammonia.Renewablehydrogencanalsobeintroducedinanexistingfossil-basedammoniaplant,replacing10-20%ofthenaturalgaswithoutcausingsignificantfluctuationsintheammoniasynthesisloop.AccountingforavoidedCO2emissionandmethanefeedstock,thisresultsinanestimatednetrenewableammoniacostofaroundUSD300-400pertonneofammoniaby2025-2030,andacostofaroundUSD250pertonneofammoniaby2040(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).Whileahybridplant,combiningbothelectrolysisandnaturalgaswithCCS,isinsufficientforfulldecarbonisation,itcanreduceemissionsfromammoniasynthesis(HansenandHan,2018).Asthetechnologiesinvolvedaremature,ahybridproductionstrategylowersthebarriersfornear-terminvestmentdecisions,enablingtheimmediatedeploymentofelectrolysersatexistingsites.CapitalcostofrenewableammoniaplantsforcurrentandproposedprojectsVariousrenewableammoniaproductionprojectshavereportedinvestmentcosts,asshowninFigure16.Formanyrenewableammoniaprojects,theinvestmentcostincludesthefullcostofdevelopingrenewableelectricity.Directcomparisonstoexistingammoniaplantsarenotpossible,becausethecostofnaturalgasextractionandpipelinesisomitted.Foranintegratedrenewableammoniaplant,thehydrogen,nitrogenandammoniaproductionunitsthemselvesmayrepresentlessthan50%ofthetotalcost,withthemajorityinvestedinupstreamdevelopmentfortherenewableelectricitygeneration.Figure16CapitalintensityofrenewableammoniasynthesisasafunctionofammoniaproductioncapacityCAPEX(USDty)Ammoniaproductioncapacity(ktyammonia)Literature(exclrenewableenergygeneration)Industrialprojects(exclrenewableenergygeneration)Industrialprojects(inclrenewableenergygeneration)BasedonsourcesinTable10andTable11.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK46Aswithfossil-basedammoniaproduction,however,thecostofrenewableammoniabenefitsfromeconomiesofscale,withthelowestcostsatlargescale(≥1Mtperyearofammonia).Thecapitalintensityforthelargestannouncedrenewableammoniaplants(includingelectricitygeneration)tostartoperationbeyond2030decreasesfromaroundUSD4800pertonneannuallyatacapacityof0.5Mtofammoniaperyear,toaroundUSD3000pertonneannuallyatacapacityof10Mtperyear.Inaddition,operationalandasset-sizingdecisions,aswellasstrategicsiteselection,arefactorsthatcanreducecostsbyincreasingthecapacityfactor.DecreasingthecostofrenewableammoniathisdecadeThecostofrenewableammoniawilldecreasesubstantiallyoverthecomingdecades.Thefirstdriverforcostreductionisascale-uptogigawatt-scale.Renewableammoniabenefitsfromeconomiesofscale(Figure16),andtherelativecapitalintensitydecreasesatlargerscales.Furthermore,thecapacityfactormayincreaseuponscale-up,duetodecreasingfluctuationsofvariablerenewables(Tancock,2020).Asprojectdevelopersexpandfrompilotanddemonstration-scaleplantstofullcommercialscale,theobservedcapitalintensityofannouncedprojectswillfall.Thecostofrenewableelectricityisadominantfactor,accountingformorethan90%oftheexpectedcostreductionforrenewableammoniaoverthecomingdecade(Figure17).EveryincrementalUSD10perMWhaddsaroundUSD100pertonneofammoniaforatypicalalkalineelectrolysis-basedammoniaplantwithanenergyconsumptionof36GJpertonneofammonia,equivalentto10MWhpertonneofammonia(GrundtandChristiansen,1982).In2021,theaveragelevelisedcostofelectricity(LCOE)fornewsolarandonshorewindauctionswasUSD39perMWhandUSD43perMWhrespectively.ThesepricesimplyanelectricityinputcostofUSD390-430pertonneofammonia.FurtherdeploymentofrenewableenergyresultsinanLCOEbelowUSD20perMWhfromsolarandwindpower(IRENA,2021a;Tancock,2020),resultinginanelectricitycostbelowUSD200pertonneofammonia.Areductioninelectrolysercostisexpecteduponlarge-scaledeployment(IRENA,2020b),asthisacceleratesthelearningcurve(Schmidtetal.,2017b;Schootsetal.,2008).ISPT(2022)estimatesthatthecostofa1GWelectrolysisfactorywillhalvebetween2020and2030.Furthermore,anincreaseinelectrolyserefficiencyresultsinlessrenewableenergyconsumptionperamountofammoniaproduced(IRENA,2020b),andsubsequentlyalowercostforrenewableammoniaproduction.Whilesomehydrogenstoragecanbeusedtobufferfluctuationsinfeedstocksupplyfromelectrolysers,flexibilityoftheHaber-Boschammoniasynthesisloopallowsforammoniaproductiontoberampeddownifnecessary,atleastasfaras10-30%ofnominalcapacity(CheemaandKrewer,2018;OstuniandZardi,2012).Thisflexibleoperationallowsforminimisingtherelativelyexpensivehydrogenstoragecapacity(ArmijoandPhilibert,2020).One-day-equivalenthydrogenstoragecostsaroundUSD35-150pertonneofammonia(ArmijoandPhilibert,2020;Vrijenhoef,2016).HydrogenstorageinsaltcavernshasthelowestcostatUSD35pertonneofammonia,whilestorageinlinedrockcavernscostsaroundUSD65pertonneofammonia(Ahluwaliaetal.,2019).Thedevelopmentofrenewableenergyhubscanfurtherdecreasethecapitalintensityofrenewableammonia.Integratingrenewableammoniaintoafacilitywithexistinginfrastructure(brownfieldprojects)resultsinalowercapitalinvestmentthanbuildingacompletelynewfacility(greenfieldprojects).SuchdeploymentcouldlimitthecostofnewportinfrastructuretobelowUSD5pertonneofammonia(Salmon,Bañares-AlcántaraandNayak-Luke,2021).RENEWABLEAMMONIA47TransportbyshipcanadduptoUSD45-100pertonneofammonia,dependingondistance,fuelcostandshiptype(Hanketal.,2020;SalmonandBañares-Alcántara,2021).Thiscostislowenoughthatinternationaltransportofrenewableenergycanbecompetitivelyachievedusingammonia.However,thistransportcostalsoprovidesincentivesforsmaller-scaleplants,whichcanbeeconomicalwhenlocatednearrenewableenergyhubsand/orthepointofconsumption.Renewableammoniaproductionhubsnearuselocationscanbebeneficial.Ifdemandforlocalrenewableammoniaplantsmaterialises,small-scaleammoniaplantsoperatingatafewmegawattsofcapacitymaybenefitfromcostreductionsduetomodulardesignandrapidmanufacturing.Uponstandardisationofequipmentandrealisationofproductionandinstallationefficiencies,thecapitalcostofsmall-scaleammoniasynthesismaydecreaseupto25%(Sieversetal.,2017).AnoverviewoftheexpectedcostreductionforrenewableammoniaproductionoverthecomingdecadeisshowninFigure17.LocationsforrenewableammoniaTheoptimallocationsforrenewableammoniaproductioncombinehighsolarirradiationandahighwindloadfactor,resultinginahighcapacityfactorforproduction.Recentstudiesanalysedtheproductioncostofrenewableammoniaathundredsoflocationsworldwide(Fasihietal.,2021;Nayak-LukeandBañares-Alcántara,2020),asisvisualisedintheheatmapinFigure18.Figure17Expectedcostdecreaseforrenewableammoniaproductionforbestlocationsby2030Ammoniaproductioncost(USDt)OpExchangeElectricitycostElectrolysercostNote:Assumesaplantsizeof1Mtannually,anoperationalloadfactorof70%,anannualinterestrateof7%andlineardepreciationover20years.TheannualOPEXisassumedtobe3%oftheCAPEX.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK48AsshowninFigure18,variousregionsinAfrica,Asia,Australia,NorthAmerica,SouthAmericaandSouthernEuropehavehighpotentialforlow-costrenewableammonia.Itshouldbenotedthatgeopoliticalfactorsplayaroleindevelopingrenewableprojects.Favourablelegislationandpoliticalstabilityarerequiredtoallowfordevelopinglarge-scaleprojectswithalowriskfactor(Eastman,2021).Furthermore,large-scaleprojectstypicallyrequireoff-takemarkets,whichisdeterminedbyinternationalcollaboration.Thus,collaborationsamongammoniaproducers,transportcompaniesandconsumersarecurrentlysetup(ProtonVenturesB.V.,2021).Gigawatt-scaleprojectscanspanthousandsofsquarekilometresforrenewableenergygeneration(CWP,2021;Tancock,2020)andarenotviableindenselypopulatedareas.InEurope,thisimpliesthatoffshorewindistypicallyusedforlargeprojects.Ontheotherhand,anumberofgigawatt-scaleprojectswithonshorewindandsolarenergyhavebeenannouncedin,forexample,Australia,Chile,Mauritania,Namibia,Oman,andSaudiArabia,suchannouncementsinvolvingareasthatarenotdenselypopulated.Also,portareasarepreferableforexport-orientedprojects,aswellasforthesupplyofseawatertofeedtheelectrolysers.FuturecostofrenewableammoniaBy2050,theproductioncostofrenewableammoniaisexpectedtoreacharoundUSD310pertonne,foralarge-scaleplantinalocationwithexcellentrenewableenergyresources.Accountingforexpansionintoareaswithlower-qualityrenewables,thetotalammoniademandin2050canbemetwithrenewableammoniaatanestimatedcostbelowUSD355pertonne(Fasihietal.,2021).Theestimatedcostofrenewableammoniainvariousscenariosupto2050isshowninFigure19.Thecostofrenewableammoniain2020wasestimatedtobearoundUSD720toUSD1400pertonne(IRENA,2020a).By2030,thiscouldbearoundUSD475pertonneofammoniainthebestlocations(Fasihietal.,2021;Nayak-LukeandBañares-Alcántara,2020).Inthelongterm,thegapwithfossil-basedammoniaproductionwillbeclosed(Figure19).Figure18Heatmapfortheproductioncostofrenewableammoniaby2050tNHReproducedfromFasihietal.(2021).Disclaimer:Thismapisprovidedforillustrationpurposesonly.BoundariesandnamesshownonthismapdonotimplyanyendorsementoracceptancebyIRENA.RENEWABLEAMMONIA49Thefuturecostestimateforrenewableammoniaproductioninthecurrentreportiscomparedtoothersources(ArmijoandPhilibert,2020;BurgessandWashington,2021;Cesaroetal.,2021;Fasihietal.,2021;MærskMc-KinneyMøllerCenterforZeroCarbonShipping,2021;Nayak-LukeandBañares-Alcántara,2020).ThecostestimatesoftheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)andotherauthorsforthebestlocationsin2030areshowninFigure20.IRENAestimatesareinlinewiththemediancostofpreviousestimations.Figure19Estimatedcostsofrenewableammoniaupto2050Productioncost(USDt)USDGJRenewableammoniaLowcarbonfossilammoniaNote:CAPEXandOPEXfortheproductionofhydrogenandnitrogenarealreadyincludedintherespectivecostofhydrogenandnitrogen.ThehydrogenpriceisbasedonIRENA(2020a),whichassumesalowelectricitycost,alongelectrolyserlifetimeandlowCAPEX.TheammoniasynthesisloopisestimatedtoaddUSD25-50pertonne(Salmon,Bañares-AlcántaraandNayak-Luke,2021),andnitrogenpurificationisestimatedtoaddUSD2.5-5pertonne.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK50RenewablefertilisercostFertiliserproductiondominatestoday’sammoniamarket,specificallyureaandammoniumnitrate,whichconsume55%and15%,respectively,ofallammoniaproducedtoday(Hatfield,2020).Becausethesefertilisershavecomparableyieldspermassoffertiliserapplied(Heuermann,HahnandvonWirén,2021;Moreiraetal.,2021),theycanbecomparedonacostpermassbasis.UrearequiresCO2,whichimpliesthatacarbon-neutralsourcesuchasdirectaircapture(DAC)orbiomasswillberequiredoverthelongterm.Currently,DACisrelativelyexpensivewithareportedcostintherangeUSD160-455pertonneofCO2(Fasihi,EfimovaandBreyer,2019;Shayegh,BosettiandTavoni,2021).Inthelongterm,estimatesforDACvaryintherangeofUSD65-200pertonneofCO2(Fasihi,EfimovaandBreyer,2019;Shayegh,BosettiandTavoni,2021).Figure20Estimatedcostrangeforrenewableammoniaproductionin2030forIRENAandothersources(top);costestimatesforrenewableammoniainthebestlocationsin2030forIRENAandothersources,aswellasamedianvalue(bottom)USDtammoniaIRENAvalueZerocarbonshippingFisihietalNayak-LukeetalMedianvalueUSDtammoniaZerocarbonshippingNayak-LukeetalIRENAvalueAustralianplantArmijoetalCesaroetalFisihietalMedianvalueRENEWABLEAMMONIA51AcostcomparisonbetweenureaandammoniumnitrateisshowninFigure21,basedontheammoniaandCO2feedstockcost.TheCAPEXandOPEXforureaproductionandammoniumnitrateproductionareexcluded,butthesecostsarewellbelowUSD50pertonneoffertiliser.Figure21suggeststhatureaisnotcostcompetitiveinadecarbonisedlandscape–forexample,without“free”CO2asaby-productfromfossilfuel-basedhydrogenproduction.However,ammoniumnitratehassafetyconcerns,duetoanexplosionhazard,andsignificantregulatoryrestrictions.Lastly,ureaisnoteasilyreplacedforricecultivation,themaincropinAsia.CurrentinstalledcapacityandannouncedcapacityCurrently,onlyonecommercialrenewableammoniaplantremainsinoperation.Operatingsince1965,theCuscoplantinPeruproduceslessthan0.02Mtannuallyofammoniaasfeedstockforammoniumnitrate,servingtheexplosivesmarket.Inthelastthreeyears,however,morethan60renewableammoniaplantshavebeenannounced,andbeyond2025renewableammoniaisexpectedtodominatecapacityadditions(Table2).Revampsofexistingfossil-basedammoniaplantswereannouncedbyvariousfertilisercompanies.ThesearelistedinTable2,aswellasvarioustechnologyproviders.Renewableammoniaplantswithacombinedcapacityof15Mtperyearhavebeenannouncedtobeginoperationswithinthisdecade,accountingfor6%oftotalammoniaproductionby2030.Thetotalannouncedrenewableammoniacapacityis71Mtperyear,likelytobeoperationalbefore2040.Althoughsomeoftheseprojectsarefullyfinancedandunderconstruction,mosthavenotyetreachedfinancialclose.Nonetheless,theprojectedrenewableammoniacapacityisexpectedtoincreasefurther,asindustrialdemonstration-scaleprojectsscaleup,frommulti-megawatttogigawatt-scale,andadditionallarge-scaleprojectsareannounced.Figure21FertiliserproductioncostasafunctionofammoniaandCO2costFertilisercost(USDt)Ammoniacost(USDt)AmmoniumnitrateUreaUSDt-COUreaUSDt-COUreaUSDt-COUreaUSDt-CONote:CAPEXandOPEXforammoniumnitrateandureaproductionnotincluded.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK52Theannouncedrenewableammoniaplantscanbecategorisedas1)brownfieldprojects,orrevampsofexistingfossil-basedplants,forbothcurrentmarketsandenergymarkets,and2)greenfieldprojects,ornew-buildplants,mainlyfortheenergymarket.Yara,thesecondlargestammoniaproducer,hasannouncedvariousprojectsaroundtheworld.Forexample,a5MWalkalineelectrolyserwillbeinstalledatPorsgrunn,Norwayby2022,whichrepresentsaround1%ofthetotalhydrogenproductioninPorsgrunn(Brown,2019c).ThePorsgrunnplantaimstocompletelydecarboniseby2025,totallingaround500ktperyearofrenewableammonia,fedbythehydroelectricgrid.Elsewhere,renewablehydrogenfromoffshorewindpowerwillbesuppliedtotheplantatSluiskil,intheNetherlands,by2024or2025,resultingin75ktperyearofrenewableammonia(Brown,2020c).Lastly,YararecentlypublishedafeasibilitystudytoexpanditsPilbarasitewith800ktofrenewableammoniacapacityperyearby2030(Brown,2020e;ENGIEandYara,2020).TheAustralianRenewableEnergyAgency(ARENA)grantedAUD42.5million(USD30.5million)toYaraandENGIEfora10MWelectrolysertobeoperationalby2023(Blackbourn,2021).CFIndustries,thelargestammoniaproducerintheworld,hasalsoannounceda20ktperyearrenewableammoniaprojectatitslocationinDonaldsonville,Louisiana,UnitedStates,tobeoperationalby2023.TheDonaldsonvillesitehasatotalammoniaproductioncapacityof4Mtperyear(Brown,2020b).BothYaraandCFIndustriesrecentlycommittedtoatargetofnetzeroemissionsby2050,forwhichsignificantscale-upoftheirexistingrenewableammoniaannouncementswillberequired.Attheendof2021,IberdrolaandFertiberiaintegratedrenewablehydrogenintoanexistingammoniaplantatPuertollanoinSpain.Arenewableammoniacapacityof6ktperyearisexpectedimmediately,withplanstoexpandto57ktperyearby2025(Brown,2020f;FertiberiaandIberdrola,2020).Thesiterevampincludesbatteriesandhydrogenstoragetomanagetheintermittencyofsolarpower(FertiberiaandIberdrola,2020).Greenfieldrenewableammoniaplantshavealsobeenannounced.Theseprojectsmostlyappearatcommercialscalefrom2025onward(Figure22).In2022,thefirstnewlybuilt,commercial-scalerenewableammoniaplantisexpectedtobeginoperationsinWesternJutland,Denmark,fedwithonshorewindpowerandwithacapacityof5ktperyearofammonia(Ravn,2020),developedbySkovgaardInvestandsupportedbyVestasandHaldorTopsøe.MostoftheannouncedrenewableammoniacapacityislocatedinAustralia.ByfarthelargestannouncedprojectsinthecountryaretheAsianRenewableEnergyHub(AREH)inPilbaraandtheWesternGreenEnergyHub(WGEH)inWesternAustralia(Tancock,2020;WGEH,2021).Atthesetwosites,asmuchas30Mtofrenewableammoniawillbeproducedannually,basedon76GWofonshorewindandsolarenergy(Brown,2020b;Tancock,2020;WGEH,2021).NumerousotherprojectshavebeenannouncedinAustraliawithcapacityintherangeof1-3Mtperyearofrenewableammonia(Table2).RenewableammoniaprojectshavealsobeenannouncedinlocationsacrosstheMiddleEast.InNEOM,aplannedcityinSaudiArabia,anammoniaplantpoweredbyonshorewindandsolarenergywillproducearound1.2Mtofrenewableammoniaperyearby2025(Brown,2020g);thisplantiscurrentlyunderconstruction.TheammoniawillbeexportedandsoldintohydrogenmarketsbyAirProducts.OtherrenewableammoniaplantshavebeenannouncedinOmanandtheUnitedArabEmirates(Table2).RenewableammoniaprojectshavealsobeenannouncedinLatinAmerica,especiallyinChile,duetooptimalwindandsolarconditions(ArmijoandPhilibert,2020)andanexistingminingindustryusingammoniumnitrate-basedexplosives.ENGIEandEnaexarebuildingapilotplantthatisexpectedtostartoperatingin2024,whilereachingfullcapacityof700ktperyearofrenewableammoniaby2030(PowerEngineeringInternational,2020).(Enaexalreadyoperatestheelectrolysis-basedammoniaplantinCusco.)VariousotherprojectshavebeenannouncedinLatinAmerica(Table2).RENEWABLEAMMONIA53MaireTechnimonthasannouncedthefirstgreenfieldrenewableammoniaplantintheUnitedStates,basedonsolarandwind(Stamicarbon,2021a).Furthermore,Hy2Genannouncedahydropower-basedammoniaplantinQuebec,Canada,tobeoperationalin2025(Hy2GenAG,2021).AfricanammoniaproducerOCPhasannouncedarenewableammoniapilotplantbasedonsolarenergy,incollaborationwithFraunhoferIMWSinGermany(Ayvalı,TsangandVanVrijaldenhoven,2021;Brown,2018c).Furthermore,StamicarbonsubsidiaryMaireTecnimontaimstoproducerenewablefertiliserinKenyaby2025(Stamicarbon,2021a).ThelargestrenewableammoniaprojectinAfricaisproposedforMauritania,where30GWofwindandsolarcapacitycouldproduce11Mtperyearofrenewableammonia(CWP,2021).Figure22Projectedannualrenewableammoniaproductionandplannedprojects,2020-2030Lowcarbonammoniacapacity(Mt)GlobalammoniademandNaturalgas-basedammoniaplantcapacityProjectedglobalrenewableammoniacapacityNote:Thefullgreenlinerepresentsprojectedannualrenewableammoniaproduction.Thegreendotsrepresentplannedrenewableammoniaprojects(Table2).Thefullblacklinerepresentstheprojectedglobalammoniaproduction.Thedottedbrownlinerepresentsaworld-scalenaturalgas-basedammoniaplantproducingaround0.7-1.2Mtofammoniaperyear.Source:Brightling,2018.©SebastianNoethlichs/Shutterstock.comINNOVATIONOUTLOOK54Table2Overviewofexistingandplannedfacilitiesandtechnologyprovidersforrenewableammoniaproduction(existingcapacityof0.02Mt/yr;plannedcapacityof15Mt/yr(2030)and71Mt/yr(total)LocationCompanyStart-upyearCapacity(kt/yr)ElectrolysistechnologyElectricitysourceSourceCommercialplantsCusco,PeruEnaex196510AlkalineHydro(Brown,2020d)Taranaki,NewZealandBallanceAgri-Nutrients,HiringaEnergy(revamp)20215-Wind(Ayvalı,TsangandVanVrijaldenhoven,2021;Brown,2020e)Puertollano,SpainFertiberia,Iberdrola(revamp)202120256.157-Solar,battery(Brown,2020f;FertiberiaandIberdrola,2020)Duqm,OmanACME,Tatweer2021TBDTBD(pilot)770-Solar(Zawya,2021)PortLincoln,AustraliaH2U,Mitsubishi,GovernmentofSouthAfrica,ThyssenKrupp2022Unknown40705–1410AlkalineWind,solar(Brown,2018d;Pendlebury,MearesandTyrrell,2021)Porsgrunn,NorwayYara(revamp)20222025-20265500AlkalineHydro(Brown,2019c;Tullo,2020)WesternJutland,DenmarkSkovgaardInvest,Vestas,HaldorTopsøe20225-Onshorewind,solar(Ravn,2020)OgataVillage,JapanTsubameBHB2022TBD-Wind,solar(Atchison,2021a)Rabat,MoroccoFusionFuel2026183PEMWind,solar(FusionFuel,2021)Pilbara,AustraliaYara(revampandnew)2023202620282030<848-160480800AlkalineorPEMOnshorewind,solar(ENGIEandYara,2020)FeasibilitystudyLouisiana,USCFIndustries,ThyssenKrupp(revamp)202320-Gridelectricity(Brown,2020b)PalosdelaFrontera,SpainFertibaria,Iberdola(revamp)2023202762100-Solar(Ludecke,2021)NorthernGermanyHaldorTopsøe,Aquamarine2024105SolidoxideOffshorewind(Frøhlke,2021a)Sluiskil,NetherlandsYara,Ørsted(revamp)2024-202575AlkalineOffshorewind(Brown,2020c)Note:TBD=tobedetermined;US=UnitedStates;UAE=UnitedArabEmirates;UK=UnitedKingdom.RENEWABLEAMMONIA55LocationCompanyStart-upyearCapacity(kt/yr)ElectrolysistechnologyElectricitysourceSourceCommercialplantsAntofagasta,ChileEnaex,ENGIE2024203018700-Solar(PowerEngineeringInternational,2020)FeasibilitystudyAbuDhabi,UAEKIZAD,HeliosIndustry2024202640200AlkalineSolar(KIZAD,2021)NEOM,SaudiArabiaNEOM,AirProducts,ACWAPower20251200AlkalineOnshorewind,solar(Brown,2020g)Berlevåg,NorwayVarangerKraft202590-Wind(Hydrogen.no,2020)BellBay,AustraliaOrigin2025420--(Origin,2020)Gladstone,AustraliaH2U20251750--(Brown,2020h)Tasmania,AustraliaFortescue2025250--(Crolius,2020a)LakeNaivasha,KenyaMaireTecnimont202545-Solar,geothermal(Stamicarbon,2021a)NorwayGriegEdge,ArendalsFossekompani2025TBD-Wind(Atchison,2021b)Quebec,CanadaHy2Gen2025183AlkalineorPEMHydro(Hy2GenAG,2021)ChileAustriaEnergy,Ökowind2026orbeforeTBDTBD850–1000-Onshorewind(Atchison,2021c;Trammo,2021)Esbjerg,DenmarkCopenhagenInfrastructurePartners,Maersk,DFDS2026650-Offshorewind(Barsoe,2021)Duqm,OmanDEMEConcessions,OQ2026TBD150520-Solar,wind(DEME,2021)Pilbara,AustraliaInterContinentalEnergy2030203530009900Alkaline,and/orPEM&solidoxideOnshorewind,solar(Brown,2020b;Tancock,2020)Murchison,AustraliaMRHP,CopenhagenInfrastructurePartners20281900PEMOnshorewind,solar(Matich,2020)Finaldecisionforammonianotmade,canalsobeliquidhydrogenAlWusta,OmanOQ,InterContinentalEnergy,EnerTech20282038TBD9500–11400-Onshorewind,solar(OQ,InterContinentalEnergyandEnerTech,2021)Note:TBD=tobedetermined;US=UnitedStates;UAE=UnitedArabEmirates;UK=UnitedKingdom.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK56LocationCompanyStart-upyearCapacity(kt/yr)ElectrolysistechnologyElectricitysourceSourceCommercialplantsCanarvon,AustraliaProvinceResources,Total-Eren2030orbefore2400-Onshorewind,solar(ProvinceResourcesLimited,2021)Gladstone,AustraliaAustromHydrogenTBD1125-Solar(Brown,2020i)WesternAustraliaInterContinentalEnergyTBD20000-(BurgessandWashington,2021)Moranbah,AustraliaDynoNobel,IncitecPivotTBD60-Solar(Brown,2019d,2020d)FeasibilitystudySkive,DenmarkSiemensGamesa,EnergifondenSkiveTBDTBD-Wind(Brown,2018e)Moura,AustraliaQueenslandNitrates,IncitecPivot,WesfarmersJV,Neoen,WorleyTBD20-Onshorewind,solar(ARENA,2019;Brown,2020d;Crolius,2020b)FeasibilitystudyPortAdelaide,AustraliaTBDTBD170-450-(Pendlebury,MearesandTyrrell,2021)Geraldton,AustraliaBP,GHD,ARENATBDTBD201000-Wind,solar(Brown,2020j)Canarvon,AustraliaHyEnergyTBD300-Onshorewind,solar(Peacock,2021)Portland,AustraliaCountrywideEnergy,GlenelgShireCouncil,PortofPortlandTBD56--(Pendlebury,MearesandTyrrell,2021)Orkney,ScotlandEneusEnergyTBD7-Wind(Brown,2020k;reNEWS.BIZ,2021a)LaosTsubameBHBTBDTBD-Hydro(TsubameBHB,2020)AbuDhabi,UAETAQAGroup,AbuDhabiPortsTBD1200-Solar(TAQAGroup,2021)Finnmark,NorwaySt1NordicOy,HorisontEnergiTBDTBD-Wind(Atchison,2021b)MauritaniaCWPTBD11425-Wind,solar(CWP,2021)EgyptThyssenKruppTBDTBD--(EgyptTodayStaff,2021)EspíritoSanto,BrazilAmmPowerTBDTBD--(AmmPower,2021)Iowa,USMaireTecnimontTBD84-Onshorewind,solar(Stamicarbon,2021b)Note:TBD=tobedetermined;US=UnitedStates;UAE=UnitedArabEmirates;UK=UnitedKingdom.RENEWABLEAMMONIA57LocationCompanyStart-upyearCapacity(kt/yr)ElectrolysistechnologyElectricitysourceSourceTechnologydemonstrationplants(pastandcurrent)Morris,USUniversityofMinnesota2014TBD0.025-0.0350.35AlkalineOnshorewind(Brown,2020d;RTIInternational,2021)Koriyama,JapanFREA,JGCCorporation20180.007-Onshorewind,solar(Brown,2020d)Harwell,UKSiemens,CardiffUniversity,UniversityofOxford20180.010-Onshorewind(Brown,2020d)Kawasaki,JapanTsubameBHB20190.020--(Crolius,2021)Foulum,DenmarkHaldorTopsøe20250.3SolidoxideOnshorewind(Brown,2020d)BenGuerir,MoroccoOCP,FraunhoferIMWSTBD0.7-Solar(Ayvalı,TsangandVanVrijaldenhoven,2021;Brown,2018c)SelectedtechnologyprovidersGermanyThyssenKruppTechnologyprovider2–1750AlkalineN/A(WillandLüke,2018)DenmarkHaldorTopsøeTechnologyprovider-SolidoxideN/A(HansenandHan,2018)SwitzerlandCasaleTechnologyprovider--N/A(Casale,2021)USKBR,CumminsTechnologyprovider-PEMN/A(KBR,2021)NetherlandsStamicarbonTechnologyprovider-N/A(Stamicarbon,2021c)NetherlandsProtonVenturesTechnologyprovider1-20-N/A(ProtonVenturesB.V.,2019)JapanTsubameBHBTechnologyprovider1-100-N/A(Crolius,2021)USStarfireEnergyTechnologyprovider17.5-N/A(StarfireEnergy,n.d.)Note:TBD=tobedetermined;US=UnitedStates;UAE=UnitedArabEmirates;UK=UnitedKingdom.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK58TechnologydevelopmentfordealingwithfluctuationsinelectricityThevariabilityofwindandsolarelectricitygenerationposeschallengesforrenewableammoniaproductionbecausetheHaber-Boschprocesspreferssteady-stateoperation.Addressingthisissue,anumberofpilot-scaleplantshavebeenbuiltoverthepastfewyearsthatdemonstratenewtechnologiesformanagingfluctuatingelectricinputsforrenewableammoniasynthesis.TheUniversityofMinnesotaintheUnitedStatesstartedoperatingawind-to-ammoniaplantin2014,withacapacityof25-35tonnesofammoniaperyear(Image2)(Brown,2020d;Reeseetal.,2016).Recently,withthesupportoftheUSDepartmentofEnergy’sARPA-E,abiggerdemonstrationwasannouncedthataimstoproducelocalfertiliser(RTIInternational,2021).Image2Morriswind-to-ammoniademonstratorHydrogenstoragetankskVtoVtransformerAmmoniaproductstorage(gallons)AmmoniapumpandloadoutNitrogenstoragetankSafetyequipmentandshowerbuildingHydrogennitrogenandammoniaproductionbuildingsImagecourtesyofMichaelReese,2013.Image3FREAwind-to-ammoniademonstratorImagecourtesyofTrevorBrown,2018.In2018,theJapaneseresearchinstituteFREAandJGCCorporationstartedoperatingasolar-andwind-poweredpilotplantwithacapacityof7tonnesofammoniaperyear,inordertotestanovelammoniasynthesiscatalystoperatingatlowertemperatureandpressure(Image3)(Brown,2020d).Thesitealsohasademonstratorforammoniacombustioningasturbines.RENEWABLEAMMONIA59AconsortiumincludingSiemens,CardiffUniversityandtheUniversityofOxfordalsooperateditswind-to-ammonia-to-powerdemonstratorsince2018(Image4)(Brown,2020d),aimingtoimprovetheunderstandingofammoniasynthesisfromelectricity,ammoniacombustioninaninternalcombustionengine,aswellasmanagementoffluctuatingenergyinputs.HaldorTopsøeannouncedawind-poweredammoniademonstratorwithacapacityofaround300tonnesofammoniaperyear,whichisexpectedtobeoperationalinFoulum,Denmarkby2025(Brown,2020d).Theaimistodemonstratenovelsolidoxideelectrolysistechnology,producingbothhydrogenandpurifiednitrogeninthesameunit,therebyeliminatingthecostoftheairseparationunitfornitrogenproduction.Thistechnologyhasthepotentialtoimprovetheenergyefficiencyofammoniasynthesistojust7.2MWhpertonne,comparedto7.8MWhpertonneforSMRand10MWhpertonneforcurrentalkalineelectrolysertechnologies.Additionalinnovationsforammoniasynthesisundermilderconditionsmayleadtobetterdynamicloadresponse.Forexample,amorethoroughunderstandingoftheHaber-Boschprocessisrequired,toelucidatetheeffectsoftemperatureandfeedstockfluctuationsoncatalyticactivity.Kineticmodelsarerequiredthatdescribetheindustrialironcatalystsforammoniasynthesisunderawiderangeofconditions–forexample,outsideconventionalsteady-stateoperation.Thismayallowforamorecontrolledramptoandfromfullloadoperation.OperationalstrategiesfordealingwithfluctuationsWhilethepilot-scaleprojectsdiscussedabovefocusontechnologiesformanagingthefluctuationsofrenewableenergyinputs,variousoperationalstrategieshavealsobeenproposed,whichdonotrequireR&Dbutrathercanbeadoptedinbothnewandexistingsitesusingtoday’stechnology.Variabilitycanbemanagedwithstoragebuffers,includingbatteries(PalysandDaoutidis,2020;Rouwenhorstetal.,2019)andhydrogenstorage(ArmijoandPhilibert,2020)tomanageshort-termandlong-termvariability,respectively.Forexample,inlate2021bothbatteryandhydrogenstorageassetswereintegratedintoFertiberia’ssolar-to-ammoniaprojectatPuertollanoinSpain(reNEWS.BIZ,2021b).Large-scalehydrogenstorageisalsopossibleinplaceswithsaltcaverns,linedrockcaverns,andotherundergroundshafts,aswellasthroughhydrogenpipelinenetworks(Gabriellietal.,2020).Image4Greenammoniademonstrationsystem,RutherfordAppletonLaboratory,Oxfordshire,UKImagecourtesyofUKScienceandTechnologyFacilitiesCouncil,2019.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK60Projectscalealsoplaysaroleinmitigatingvariability,notleastbecauseeconomiesofscalereducetherelativecostofbatteryandhydrogenstorageassets.Thesheersizeofgigawatt-scalewindandsolarfields,whichcanspanhundredstothousandsofsquarekilometres,canleveloutlocalfluctuations(CWP,2021;Tancock,2020).Verylargeprojectsmayalsocontainmultipleammoniaplantsofdifferentsizes,operatinginparallel,whichcanbescheduledtobeonstandbyaccordingtoanticipatedfluctuations.Combiningcomplementarysourcesofrenewableenergycandecreasethefluctuationsandthusincreasethecapacityfactor.Forexample,thecombinationofsolar(strongestatdaytime)andwind(strongestatmorningandnight)canenablefullloadfactorsof60-70%intherightlocations(ArmijoandPhilibert,2020;Tancock,2020),whilethefullloadfactorsforeachseparatelyaretypicallyaround20-60%.Themaindrawbackofthisapproachisthatinvestmentinparallelelectricitysourcesisrequired,buttheimpactofthisadditionalcostcanbeoutweighedbythehighercapacityfactor.Anotherstrategytomaintainaminimumbaseloadisfirmingwithasteadydecarbonisedelectricitysource,suchasgeothermal,hydropower,nuclearpoweroraconnectiontothegrid.However,thislatteroptionispossibleonlyatlocationswithastablegridatthescaleoftherenewableammoniaplant,anditraisesissuesofadditionality.Anymarginalelectricityfromthegridshouldbedecarbonisedotherwisethecarbonintensityofelectrolysis-basedhydrogenproductionmaybehigherthanthatofnaturalgas-basedhydrogenproduction(Ausfelderetal.,2021;Tunå,HultebergandAhlgren,2014).AHaber-Boschsynthesisloopcanbeoperatedatalowloadfactor,downtoatleast10-30%ofthenameplatecapacity(CheemaandKrewer,2018;OstuniandZardi,2012).Thetrade-offhereislowerenergyefficiency.Theenergyconsumptionoftheammoniasynthesisloopisestimatedtoincreasefrom2.2GJpertonneofammoniaatfullloadto14.4GJpertonneofammoniaat10%load(Bañares-Alcántaraetal.,2015).Thisramp-up/ramp-down(dynamicloadresponse)cangenerallybeachievedwithinafewhours(Rossi,2018;Verleysen,ParenteandContino,2021).However,theammoniasynthesisloopisnotnecessarilydirectlycoupledwithelectrolysis,duetohydrogenstorage.Electrolysersoperatemoreefficientlyatlowloadduetoalowercurrentdensity–forexample,from33GJpertonneofammoniaatfullloadtobelow30GJpertonneat10%load(BraunsandTurek,2020).Similarly,theHaber-Boschsynthesisloopcanbeoperatedwithinerts,nitrogenandargon,displacinghydrogen.Upto50volume-percentofthegasescirculatinginthesynthesisloopcanbereplacedwithinerts,effectivelyreducingtheloadfactorwithoutreducingthestandardoperatingtemperatureandpressure(OstuniandZardi,2012).2.5RenewableammoniaproductionfrombiomassTechnologyandproductionprocessBiomassisanotherfeedstockforhydrogenandalsoacircularsourceofCO2,whichmeansthatammoniaproducedfrombiomasscanbeupgradedtorenewableurea,foruseinfertiliserorindustrialNOx-reductionapplications.Likerenewableammoniafromelectrolysis,thistechnologypathwayismature:inthe1920s,around5ktperyearofrenewableammoniawasproducedinPeoria,Illinoisfromcornfermentation(ErnstandSherman,1927).Biomasscanbeprocessedtoammoniaalongvariouspathways(Figure23).Solidbiomasscanbegasifiedwithairtoformsyngas(amixtureofhydrogenandCO).Syngascanbeprocessedtoformammoniaaftercarbonremoval.Alternatively,biomasscanbegasifiedandmethanatedtoformbio-methaneorbiogas,whichisthenusedasfeedstock.Or,bio-methanecanbeproducedbyanaerobicdigestionofbiomass.Althoughbio-ammoniaisnotcommerciallyproducedtoday,alloftheprocessstepsforbiomass-to-ammoniahavebeencommerciallydemonstrated.RENEWABLEAMMONIA61Biomassisalreadyafeedstockformethanolproduction(IRENAandMethanolInstitute,2021),whereatleastpartofthefossilfeedstockisreplacedbyrenewablebiomass.Biomass-basedmethanolplantscurrentlyhaveaproductioncapacitytypicallyanorderofmagnitudelowerthanfossil-basedplants,andthiswouldalsobethecaseforbiomass-basedammoniaplants.Around10-12exajoulesofaffordablebiogasandbiomethaneisavailableforsustainablefuelproductionin2040(IEA,2020a;dePeeetal.,2018).Thiswouldbesufficientfeedstocktoproducearound535-745Mtofammonia.However,onlyafractionofglobalammoniaproductionisexpectedtoshifttobiomass.Thelimitedavailabilityofaffordablebiomassmayberequiredtoproduceotherbiofuels(suchasaviationfuels)andfeedstocksforthechemicalindustry.CostsThecapitalintensityofabiomass-basedammoniaplantexhibitseconomiesofscale,rangingfromUSD2300toUSD4500pertonneofannualammoniacapacity,dependingontheplantsize(5-150ktperyearofammonia)(Akbari,OyedunandKumar,2018;Tunå,HultebergandAhlgren,2014).Intermsofgeographicfootprint,theenergydensityofbiocropsisaroundtwoordersofmagnitudelowerthanforsolarpower,implyingthatbio-basedammoniaproductionatgigawatt-scalewouldbedifficult.Forsmall-scaleproduction,therelativelyhighinvestmentcostsmaybeprohibitive.Figure23SchematicoverviewofstepsinvolvedinammoniasynthesisfrombiogasandsolidbiomassSolidbiomassDesulphurisationBiogasNaturalgasAnaerobicdigestionGasificationDesulphurisationMethanationZnSFluegasHeatZnOHOFuelAirPowerHeatPowerPowerPowerHeatCondensateCOHeatPurgegasPrimaryreformerSecondaryreformerShiftconversionCOremovalMethanationCompressionAmmoniasynthesisNHPartiallyadaptedfromFertilizersEurope(2000).INNOVATIONOUTLOOK62Bio-basedammoniaproductionisestimatedtocostUSD455toUSD2000pertonneofammonia,dependingonthesourceofthebiomassandtheplantsize(Aroraetal.,2016;Sánchez,MartínandVega,2019).ThisissubstantiallyhigherthanthetypicalmarketvalueofUSD200-300pertonneofammonia(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).Biomasscanalsobeintroducedintoanexistingfossil-basedammoniaplant,todecarbonise10-15%ofitsfeedstock.AnestimatedCO2priceofUSD250-400pertonneofCO2wouldberequiredforthistobecostcompetitive(SayginandGielen,2021).CurrentinstalledcapacityandannouncedcapacityTherearenocommercial-scalebio-basedammoniaplantsinoperationtoday.Variousbiomass-to-ammoniaand-ureaplantswereannouncedinthelate2000sandearly2010s(Brown,2013),basedonfeedstockssuchaswoodybiomass,harvestleftoversandbiogas.However,theseprojectshavenotmaterialised,andsomeofthecompaniesinvolvedceasedoperations.Animportantreasonforthiswasthelowcostpenaltyforusingfossilfeedstocks,suchasnaturalgas,oil,andcoal,duringaperiodoflownaturalgasprices.Co-feedingofbiomassorbiogasmayplayaroleinthepartialdecarbonisationoffossil-basedammoniaplants,especiallyifsupportedbyhighercarbonemissionpenalties.CCSofthisbiomassorbiogascanproducecarbon-negativeammonia,offsettingemissionsfromfossil-basedammoniaproduction.Ingeneral,however,biomassisnotexpectedtoplayamajorroleintheglobaltradeofdecarbonisedammonia(dePeeetal.,2018)andmaybelimitedtoopportunitieswherelocation-specificconditionsovercometheeconomichurdles.Forexample,low-costbiomassoranimalwastecanbeusedasafeedstockforbio-basedammoniainisolatedcommunitieswithlimitedaccesstofossil-basedorelectrolysis-basedammonia,andwithrequirementforureafertiliser.2.6Costcomparisonofrenewableammoniaandfossil-basedammoniawithcarboncaptureandstorageRenewableammoniaproductioncostsfornewplantsareestimatedtobeintherangeofUSD720-1400pertonne(USD39-75perGJ)today.ThisisexpectedtofalltoUSD310-610pertonne(aroundUSD17-33perGJ)by2050,drivenbydecreasingpricesforrenewablepowerandelectrolysers,andbytechnologicalandoperationalimprovementsleadingtohigherutilisationrates.Forhybridplants,inwhichsomeamountofrenewablehydrogenisintroducedtoanexistingfossil-basedammoniaplant,renewableammoniacostsareestimatedtobeUSD300-400pertonneby2025,fallingtoaroundUSD250pertonneby2040.Bio-basedammoniaproductionisestimatedtocostUSD455toUSD2000pertonne,substantiallyhigherthanlow-carbonfossilammoniaandelectrolysis-basedrenewableammonia.Naturalgas-basedammoniaproductionwithCCScostsaroundUSD170-465pertonneofammoniaorUSD9-25perGJ(onalowerheatingvaluebasis),dependingonthecostofnaturalgas.Coal-basedammoniaproductionwithCCShasacostrangeofUSD360-450pertonneorUSD19-24perGJ.Mostlow-carbonammonia,whetherrenewableorfossil-basedwithCCS,iscurrentlynotcostcompetitiveattheconventionalcommoditypriceofUSD200-300pertonneinrecentyears(Hatfield,2020).(Recentnaturalgasshortageshaveresultedinasubstantiallyhigherammoniamarketprice,aboveUSD1000pertonne.)Therefore,itisexpectedthatseparatemarketswillneedtodevelop,supportedbycertificationschemes,contractsfordifferenceandothermechanisms.RENEWABLEAMMONIA63Thecostofrenewableammoniaisexpectedtodecreasesubstantially,suchthatrenewableammoniacanbecomecompetitiveinthelongterm,andthiscouldbeacceleratedwithsubstantialcarbonmitigationincentives(Figure24).Inoptimallocations,renewableammoniaisexpectedtobecostcompetitivewithfossil-basedammoniawithCCSbeyond2030.Thissuggeststhatimportedrenewableammoniamaybepreferredoverdomesticfossil-basedproductioninsomecases.Forimportprojects,ammoniatransportbyshipmayadduptoUSD45-100pertonneorUSD2-5perGJtothelocalproductioncost(Hanketal.,2020;SalmonandBañares-Alcántara,2021).Notably,low-carbonfossil-basedammoniaisalreadycompetitivewithfossiloilsonanenergybasis,andammoniaiscompetitivewithotherzero-carbonfuels(Figure24).Figure24ComparisonofrenewableammoniawithotherfuelsbasedonthepriceperunitofenergyUSDGJUSDMWhFossiloilsFossiloilsUSDt-COLowcarbonfossilammoniaRenewableammoniaRenewableammoniaRenewableammoniaBio-methanolBio-ethanolBio-methanee-methanole-methanolSource:Low-carbonfossilammoniafromHaldorTopsøeetal.(2020).Fossilfuelvaluesarebasedonaveragevalues(2010-2020);seeIRENAandMethanolInstitute(2021).MethanolcostvaluesarebasedonIRENAandMethanolInstitute(2021).Bio-ethanolandbio-methaneestimatesarebasedonIRENA(n.d.).Thecostofrenewableammoniaisexpectedtodecreasesubstantially,suchthatrenewableammoniacanbecomecompetitiveINNOVATIONOUTLOOK642.7NovelammoniaproductiontechnologiesTheHaber-Boschprocesshasbeenthedominantprocessfornitrogenfixationformorethanacentury(Erismanetal.,2008;Liu,2014;Smil,2004).Thesourceofhydrogenhasvariedovertheyears,buttheammoniasynthesisloophasstayedremarkablysimilartoBASF’soriginaldesign(Travis,2018).Asaresult,Haber-Boschishighlyoptimised,andtheenergyefficiencyofthenaturalgas-basedammoniaproductionprocessisashighas60-70%(onalowerheatingvaluebasis)(Smith,HillandTorrente-Murciano,2020).Thiscreatesahighhurdlefornewtechnologies.Awiderangeofnovelammoniaproductiontechnologieshasbeenresearched,suchaselectrochemicalandphotochemicalprocesses,plasma-basedprocesses,chemicalloopingapproaches,homogeneoussynthesis,biologicalprocesses,andammoniapurificationfromanimalwasteorwastewater(Cherkasov,IbhadonandFitzpatrick,2015;Nørskovetal.,2016;Rouwenhorstetal.,2020b).Furthermore,modificationstoHaber-Boschhavealsobeenproposedtoallowefficientoperationatlowertemperaturesandpressures(Malmalietal.,2017;Rouwenhorstetal.,2020b),whichmayallowforbetterintegrationofvariablerenewableenergyinputs.Novelammoniaproductiontechnologiesareespeciallyrelevantforsmall-scaleammoniasynthesis,typicallywithacapacitybelow10tonnesperday(Rouwenhorstetal.,2020b).Atsuchsmallscales,theenergyconsumptionofHaber-Boschistypicallyhighduetoheatlosses(Rouwenhorstetal.,2019)anddownscalingiscostlyduetothehighpressures(Yoshidaetal.,2021).Electrochemicalammoniasynthesishasreceivedsubstantialresearchinterestoverthepastdecades(Giddey,BadwalandKulkarni,2013;MacFarlaneetal.,2020;McPhersonetal.,2019),asitpotentiallyallowsforthedirectformationofammoniafromwaterandnitrogen.However,thishasremainedascientificchallengewithlowratesofformation(Kibsgaard,NørskovandChorkendorff,2019),andfalsepositiveswerepreviouslyreportedduetothepresenceofammoniainthesurroundings(Andersenetal.,2019;Choietal.,2020).Twocompanies,TsubameBHBinJapanandStarfireEnergyintheUnitedStates,arecommercialisingammoniasynthesiswithlow-temperaturecatalystsandseparationbyadsorptionorabsorption–forexample,asorbent-enhancedHaber-Boschsynthesisloop(Crolius,2021;StarfireEnergy,n.d.).Thisallowsformildertemperaturesandpressures,whichmayfacilitatevariableoperationaswellascost-effectivescale-downoftheprocess.Sofar,novelammoniatechnologieshavenotbeenfullycommercialised,andHaber-Boschisexpectedtoremainthedominanttechnologyforammoniasynthesisinthecomingdecades,especiallyatlargescale(Rouwenhorstetal.,2020c).NoveltechnologieswithdecarbonisationpotentialthatcanbeintegratedwithHaber-Boscharealreadyindevelopment,includingelectrifiedSMRunits,autothermalreforming,methanepyrolysisandsolidoxideelectrolysers.RENEWABLEAMMONIA653.PERFORMANCEANDSUSTAINABILITYKeyfindingsRenewablehydrogenproductiontakes90%oftheenergyneededtomakerenewableammonia.•Renewableammoniasynthesisusingelectrolysiscurrentlyconsumesabout36GJpertonneofammonia(around50%energyefficiency).Ofthis,thehydrogenproductionconsumes90%oraround33GJpertonneofammonia.•Improvementsinelectrolyserefficiencywillthereforehaveasignificantimpactontheenergyefficiencyofrenewableammonia.•Fromanotherperspective,theenergyrequiredtomakerenewableammoniaisasmallpremiumonrenewablehydrogen.Theenergyinputofrenewableammoniaproductionissimilartothatoffossil-basedammonia.•High-temperatureelectrolysis(solidoxide)promisesefficiencyimprovementsoverlow-temperatureelectrolysis(alkalineorPEM),andtypicallyconsumes30GJpertonneofammoniatoday,withpotentialtoreach26GJpertonne(upto70%energyefficiency).•Renewableammoniafrombiomassconsumesabout37-42GJpertonne(45-50%energyefficiency).•Bycontrast,modernnaturalgas-basedammoniaplantscanoperateat26-29GJpertonneofammonia,whiletheglobalaverageenergyconsumptionforammoniaproductiontodayisaround36GJpertonneofammonia.Renewableammoniacanreduceglobalgreenhousegasemissions.•Ammoniaproductioncurrentlygeneratesaround0.5GtofCO2-equivalentannually,accountingfor1%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions.•Greenhousegasemissionsfromfossil-basedammoniaproductionvarydependingonthefeedstock,withnaturalgasgeneratingatleast1.6tonnesofCO2pertonneofammoniaandcoalgeneratingaround4.0tonnesofCO2pertonneofammonia.•Additionalgreenhousegasemissionsoccurupstream,withembeddedemissionsandfugitivemethane,anddownstream,duringstorage,transportanddistribution.•Includingupstreamanddownstreamemissions,renewableammoniafromelectrolysiscouldhaveacarbonfootprintbelow0.1tonneofCO2pertonneofammoniaby2050.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK66•Beyondgreenhousegasemissions,othersustainabilitycriteriashouldbeconsidered,includingtheavailabilityofwaterandland,scarcityofcertainmetalsandimpactsontheglobalnitrogencycle.Ammoniacertificationschemesareunderdevelopmenttosupportthedevelopmentofamarketforrenewableandlow-carbonammonia.•Anammoniamoleculederivedfromanysourceisthesame,butthecarbonfootprintisnot.•Guaranteesoforiginwouldallowproducersandconsumerstoreachagreementsonthevalueofammoniabasedonitscarbonintensity,aswellasothersustainabilitycriteria.•Abook-and-claimsystem,orsimilar,couldenablethetradingofcertificatesseparatefromthephysicalammoniaproduct.•Ammoniacertificationcouldbeusedtosupportregionalandsectoralpolicies,forexampleacarbontaxorborderadjustmentmechanism,oralow-emissionzoneport.3.1PerformanceandefficiencyModernrenewableammoniasynthesisfromlow-temperatureelectrolysis(alkalineorPEM)typicallyconsumesaround36GJpertonneofammonia(Smith,HillandTorrente-Murciano,2020),a50%energyconversionefficiency.Hydrogenproductiontypicallyconsumesmostoftheenergy,around33GJpertonneofammonia.Nitrogenpurificationfrompressureswingadsorption(PSA)consumesaround0.6-0.9GJpertonneofammonia,typicallyforsmall-scaleammoniaplants,whilenitrogenpurificationfromcryogenicdistillationconsumesaround0.3GJpertonneofammonia,typicallyforlarge-scaleammoniaplants(Rouwenhorstetal.,2019).Theammoniasynthesislooptypicallyconsumesatleast2GJpertonneofammonia(Bañares-Alcántaraetal.,2015;Smith,HillandTorrente-Murciano,2020).Renewableammoniasynthesisfromhigh-temperatureelectrolysis(solidoxide)typicallyconsumesaround30GJpertonneofammonia(Cintietal.,2017;Smith,HillandTorrente-Murciano,2020)andisexpectedtodecreaseto26GJpertonneinthelongterm(Hansen,2015),arounda60-70%energyconversionefficiency.Thelowerenergyconsumption,comparedtolow-temperatureelectrolysis,isduetomoreefficienthydrogenproductionandgreaterheatintegrationacrosstheprocess(Hansen,2015;Hauchetal.,2020).Renewableammoniasynthesisfromsolidbiomassfeedstockconsumesaround37-42GJpertonne(IEA,2021a;H.Zhangetal.,2020),arounda45-50%energyconversionefficiency.Bio-gasandbiomethaneproducedfrombiomasscanbeprocessedlikenaturalgas,withsimilarefficiency.TheenergyconsumptionforammoniasynthesisfromvariousfeedstocksistabulatedinTable3,andthehistoricaldevelopmentofthebestavailabletechnologyperfeedstockisshowninFigure25.Atypicalmodernnaturalgas-basedammoniaplantconsumesaround29GJpertonneofammonia(CEFIC,2013).Themostenergy-efficientplantsconsume26-27GJpertonneofammonia,andfurtheroptimisationisnotexpected,astheprocessapproachesatechnologicalasymptote(Figure25).However,olderplantscanbeoptimisedthroughrevamps(Kermelietal.,2017).Theoverallenergyconversionefficiencyonanloweringheatingvaluebasisforalarge-scale,modernnaturalgas-basedammoniaplantisaround65%(CEFIC,2013).TheadditionofCCStechnologywouldincreasethisenergyconsumptiontoaround33GJpertonneofammonia(Rouwenhorstetal.,2020b),arounda55%efficiency.ReplacingSMRwithATRtechnology,withCCS,maydecreasetheenergyconsumptionto29GJpertonneofammonia(IEA,2021a).RENEWABLEAMMONIA67Ammoniaproductionfrommethanepyrolysisconsumesaround49GJpertonneofammonia(IEA,2021a),ofwhichthemajoritycomprisesthenaturalgasfeedstockandtheminorityelectricityfeedstock,equivalenttoaround40%energyconversionefficiency.Theefficiencyforcoaltoammoniaisaround45%(Brightling,2018).Theglobalaverageenergyconsumptiontodayisaround36GJpertonneofammonia(IFA,2014).Ammoniaplantsinindustrialisedcountriestypicallyhavealowerenergyconsumption(33-36GJpertonneofammonia)comparedtodevelopingcountries(36-47GJpertonne)(Sayginetal.,2011),whichhasimplicationsforlocationswhererenewableammoniamaybemorecompetitiveinthenear-term.Table3Typicalgrossenergyconsumptionforammoniasynthesisfromvariousfeedstocks,basedonmoderntechnologyFeedstockTypicalenergyconsumption(GJ/tammonia)Potential(GJ/tammonia)SourceAmmoniafromnaturalgas(SMR,ATRoreSMR)28-2926(CEFIC,2013;IEA,2021a)Ammoniafromnaphtha35-(Brightling,2018)Ammoniafromheavyfueloil38-(Brightling,2018)Ammoniafromcoal4236(Brightling2018;IEA,2021a)Ammoniafromnaturalgas(SMR,ATRoreSMR)withcarboncaptureandstorage3329(IEA,2021a;Rouwenhorstetal.,2020b)Ammoniafromcoalwithcarboncaptureandstorage-39(IEA,2021a)Ammoniafrommethanepyrolysis4946(IEA,2021a)Ammoniafromlow-temperatureelectrolysis3633(Smith,HillandTorrente-Murciano,2020)Ammoniafromhigh-temperatureelectrolysis3026(Cintietal.,2017;Hansen,2015;Smith,HillandTorrente-Murciano,2020)Ammoniafrombiomassgasification4237(CEFIC,2013;IEA,2021a;H.Zhangetal.,2020)Note:Forreference,thelowerheatingvalueofammoniais18.6GJpertonne.SMR=steammethanereforming;ATR=autothermalreforming.©JonRehg/Shutterstock.comINNOVATIONOUTLOOK68Figure25Bestavailabletechnology(BAT)forammoniasynthesisfromvariousfeedstockTheoreticalminimumenergyconsumptionLowerheatingvalueEnergyconsumptionforBAT(GJtammonia)CoalNaturalgasLowTelectrolysisHighTelectrolysisBiomassgasificationNote:Theredlinerepresentsthetheoreticalminimumenergyconsumptionrequiredforammoniasynthesisfromwaterandair(22.5GJpertonneofammonia),andthegreenlinerepresentsthelowerheatingvalueofammonia(18.6GJpertonne).Source:BasedonoriginaldatafromCEFIC(2013);Ernst(1928);FertilizersEurope(2000);GrundtandChristiansen(1982);HansenandHan(2018);IEA(2021a);Smil(2004);Smith,HillandTorrente-Murciano(2020);H.Zhangetal.(2020).Casestudy1Facilitatingthetransitiontorenewableammonia:RecommendationsforindustryandgovernmentsOnestrategytodecreaseglobalprimaryenergyconsumptionistheuseofmoreenergy-efficienttechnologies.Thisisalsorelevantforammoniasynthesisandutilisation,forinstanceinthemaritimesector.Currently,renewableammoniaisbasedonlow-temperatureelectrolysis.Thisoperatesatatypicalenergyconsumptionof36GJpertonneofammonia,whiletheenergyconsumptionmaydecreaseto33GJpertonneofammoniainthelongterm(Smith,HillandTorrente-Murciano,2020).Thisisequivalenttoanenergyconversionefficiencyof52-57%onalowerheatingvaluebasis.However,renewableammoniaproducedviasolidoxideelectrolysisrequiresanenergyinputofonlyaround26-30GJpertonneofammonia(Hansen,2015;Smith,HillandTorrente-Murciano,2020).Thisisequivalenttoanenergyconversionefficiencyof62-72%onalowerheatingvaluebasis.Alarge-scalesolidoxideelectrolysermanufacturingfacilitywasannouncedin2021,withanannualelectrolysercapacityof500MWin2023,withanoptiontoexpandto5GW(Frøhlke,2021b).RENEWABLEAMMONIA69Ammoniacanbeusedasamarinefuel.Thecurrenttechnologyformaritimepropulsionisthetwo-strokeengine,whichcanberetrofittedtouseammoniaasafuel(MANEnergySolutions,2019),withanenergyefficiencyofabout45-50%onalowerheatingvaluebasis(MANDiesel&Turbo,2017).Likewise,four-strokeenginesareunderdevelopmentformarineapplications,withambitionstoconvertexistingenginesandnewbuildsfrom2023onward(WärtsiläCorporation,2020),withenergyefficienciesuptoaround50%onalowerheatingvaluebasis.Alternatively,however,ammoniamaybefeddirectlytoasolidoxidefuelcellwithpotentiallyhigherenergyefficiency,around55-60%onalowerheatingvaluebasis(Afifetal.,2016).Solidoxidefuelcelltechnologyiscurrentlyindevelopment,andcostsareexpectedtodecreasewithdeployment(Schmidtetal.,2017b;Staffelletal.,2019).Currently,solidoxidefuelcellsareavailableonlyforsmall-scaleapplications(<1MW)(PalysandDaoutidis,2020).Forreference,atypicalsizeforashipengineistensofmegawatts(MANEnergySolutions,2020).Otherminorenergylossesintheammoniavaluechainformaritimefueluseincludeconversionandtransmissionlossesinsolarandwindenergy,cooledammoniatransport,andammoniausageforNOXreduction(onlyrequiredforthetwo-strokeengine)(Johannessen,2020).Theseotherlossesamounttoatotalofaround8.3%energylossforthecurrenttechnologyand6.4%energylossforsolidoxidetechnology(Johannessen,2020),equivalenttoa92%and94%efficiencyinthesupplychain.Comparingthecurrenttechnologyforrenewableammoniaproductionandutilisationwiththesolidoxidetechnology,itisclearthatthetotalround-tripefficiencyforsolidoxidetechnologyishigher(Table4).Theround-tripefficiencyisimportant,assolarandwindelectricitytypicallyaccountforthemajorityofthecost(SánchezandMartín,2018)and,uponincreasingtheround-tripefficiency,therequirementforrenewableelectricitygenerationdecreases.Thelowerinvestmentinsolarandwindcapacitymayoutweightheslightlyhighercostofsolidoxidetechnology.Furthermore,ahigherround-tripefficiencyresultsin30-35%lesslanduseforrenewableenergygeneration.Table4Round-tripefficiencyofammoniaproductionandutilisationforthemaritimesectorCurrenttechnologySolidoxidetechnologyHydrogenproductiontechnologyAlkalineorPEMelectrolysisSolidoxideelectrolysis(SOE)Energyconsumption(GJ/tammonia)33-3626-30Energyconversionefficiency50-57%onLHVbasis62-72%onLHVbasisAmmoniaconversiontechnologyTwo-strokeengineSolidoxidefuelcell(SOFC)Energyconversionefficiency45-50%onLHVbasis55-60%onLHVbasisOtherlosses8.3%6.4%Round-tripefficiency21-26%32-40%Relativerenewablesfootprint(area)1.7-1.91.0-1.2Note:SeealsoTable3,andthetextabove.Indexedrelativeto26GJpertonneofammoniaforammoniaproductionand60%(lowerheatingvalue)energyefficiencyforconversionofammoniatoenergy.LHV=lowerheatingvalue.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK703.2EmissionsandsustainabilityofammoniaproductionThecurrentammoniaproductiontechnologygeneratesaround0.5GtofCO2-equivalentannually(RoyalSociety,2020),accountingfor1%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions.Thecarbonfootprintofammoniaproductionprocessescanbequantifiedusinglife-cycleanalysis.Allstagesofammoniaproduction,distributionandconsumptionaretakenintoaccountinathoroughlife-cycleanalysis,alsoknownascradle-to-graveanalysis.Suchanalysesarehighlydependentonnumerousfactors,includingtheproductionpathway,thenatureoffeedstocks,andapplications,makingacomparisonwithotherfuelsandfeedstockschallenging.Nonetheless,thesetypesofanalyseswillbeincreasinglyneededtoassesstheenvironmentalimpactofdifferentfuels/materialsandprocesses.Thepresenceofglobalstandardsforlow-carbonfuelswillbeessential.ThegreenhousegasesemittedforammoniaproductionfromvariousresourcesarelistedinTable9inAnnexC,expressedasCO2-equivalents.Thegreenhousegasemissionsforbothrenewableammoniaandfossil-basedammoniawithCCSaresubstantiallylowerthanthoseforfossil-basedammoniawithoutemissionmitigation(Figure26).Forexample,SMR-basedammoniaproductionresultsinatleast1.6tonnesofCO2pertonneofammonia(Brightling,2018).Inaddition,dependingontheinfrastructurefornaturalgasproduction,processing,andtransport,methaneemissionscanbesubstantial,upto0.9tonnesofCO2-equivalentpertonneofammonia(GIE-MARCOGAZ,2019).ThisisahiddenCO2-equivalentemissionthatshouldbeaccountedforwhendeterminingthecarbonfootprintforammoniaproduction(HowarthandJacobson,2021).Methane(CH4)hasa30-timeshigherglobalwarmingpotentialthanCO2ona100-yeartimescale,andasmuchas85timesona20-yeartimescale.Thus,methaneemissionshaveamuchmoreprofoundimpactonestimatingtheglobalwarmingpotentialona20-yeartimescale.UpstreammethaneleaksareidenticalforammoniaproducedwithorwithoutCCS.Inaddition,withCCS,potentialdownstreamCO2slippagefromstoragemustalsobeaccountedfor.Asaresult,thelife-cycleemissionreductionsachievablebyimplementingCCSonaSMR-basedproductionsitemaybelimitedto60-85%(CommitteeonClimateChange,2018).Thus,fossil-basedammoniawithCCSservesonlyasanintermediatesteptowardsfullydecarbonisedammoniaproduction.Forrenewableammonia,thesustainabilityofelectrolysisdependsonthechoiceoftechnologyandofwatersource.Theavailabilityofscarcemetalsmaybecomealimitationforgigawatt-scalePEMelectrolysis(Kiemeletal.,2021),butsuchlimitationsdonotexistforalkalineorsolidoxideelectrolysis(SalmonandBañares-Alcántara,2021).Watersecurityshouldnotbecompromisedand,therefore,desalinatedseawatershouldbeusedforgigawatt-scaleammoniaplantsinmostlocations,whilelimitingbrackishwaterdisposal.Ammoniafromelectrolysisrequiresabout1.6tonnesofwaterfeedstockpertonneofammonia(Ghavametal.,2021),withadditionalwaterrequiredforcoolingandsupportsystems.AmmoniafromSMRrequiresaround0.6tonnesofwaterfeedstockpertonneofammonia(Ghavametal.,2021).Notably,electrolysis-basedhydrogenproductionshouldgenerallynotbebasedonmarginalelectricityfromthegrid,asthismayresultinhighergreenhousegasemissionsthanfromfossil-basedammoniaproduction(Ausfelderetal.,2021),unlesstheelectricgridhasaverylowfractionoffossil-basedproduction.Accountingforemissionsfromtransport,utilisingtoday’sinfrastructure,canaddupto10gramsofCO2-equivalentpermegajoule(MJ)ofammonia(Biceretal.,2016),equivalentto0.2tonnesofCO2pertonneofammonia.RENEWABLEAMMONIA71Regardingembeddedemissions,windandsolarpowerarecurrentlyproducedwithfossil-basedtechnologies.Upondecarbonisingtheentirevaluechain,thecarbonfootprintofrenewableammoniacoulddecreasefromthecurrentlevelofaround0.5tonneofCO2pertonneofammoniatobelow0.1tonneby2050(HydrogenCouncil,2021).Ifammoniaisusedasafuelforshipsandstationarypower,nitrousoxide(N2O)emissionsmustbesuppressed.N2Ohasaglobalwarmingpotential298timesthatofCO2(USEPA,2020).N2Oemissionshavebeenreducedovertheyearsthroughlegislation.Already,ammoniaanditsderivatives(ureasolution,knownasdieselexhaustfluidorAdBlue)arealreadyusedtodecreasetheseemissionsinthestationarypowerandtransportsectorsusingselectivecatalyticreduction(SCR)technology(Buscaetal.,1998).Ammoniaemissionscanbesuppressedthroughanammoniaoxidationcatalyst(AMOX).AsdiscussedinAnnexB,ammoniaemissionshaveamorelocaleffectontheenvironment,ratherthancausingglobalwarming.Ammoniaemissionsmustbesuppressedasmuchaspossibletopreventeutrophication.3.3Certificationschemes,CO2penaltiesandlegislationCertificationschemeswillberequiredtodistinguishbetweenfossil-basedammonia,fossil-basedammoniawithCCS,andrenewableammonia.Theammoniamoleculederivedfromanysourceisthesame,butthecarbonfootprintisnot.Therefore,guaranteesoforiginarerequired,indicatingtheCO2-equivalentfootprintoftheammoniafromrawmaterialextractiontotheusephase,whichallowsammoniaproducersandconsumerstoreachagreementsonthevalueoflow-carbonammonia.Similarcertificatesalreadyexistforelectricityproduction.Certificatescouldintheorybetradedseparatefromthephysicalammoniaproduct,forexamplewithinabook-and-claimsystem.Figure26IllustrativerangesofestimatedgreenhousegasemissionsofammoniaproductionfromvariousfeedstocktCOtammoniaNaturalgasNaphthaheavyfueloilCoalFossilwithCCSByproductHEthyleneByproductHChlorineMethanePyrolysisElectrolysisBiomassNote:Dataarerepresentedasmedianvalueswithstandarddeviation,andaredrawnfrommultipleliteraturereferencesbasedonvariousmethodologiesandboundaryassumptions.ThedevelopmentofGuaranteesofOriginwithstandardisedcalculationmethodsarerequiredtoverifytheactualemissionsintensityofammoniafromanyspecificproductionunit.Source:ValuesarefromTable9inAnnexB.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK72Theclassificationoflow-carbonammoniashouldbestraightforward.Inspirationcanbeobtainedfromhydrogenproduction.Onesuchsystemusestheterm“lowcarbon”forhydrogenwithacarbonfootprintatleast60%lowerthanforSMR(Barth,2016).Comparisonoflower-carbonfuelsbasedonenergycontentratherthanonmassbasisallowsforalevelplayingfieldamongalternativefuels.Thefocusshouldnotonlybeon-siteCO2emissionsbutonallgreenhousegasesaswellasothercriteriaincludingwateruseandupstreamemissions.Usingsuchcertificationschemesmayalsoallowforanoverallmarketcaponthecarbonemissionsforammoniaproduction.Ontheotherhand,usingamarket-basedapproach,ratherthanaspecificcapforallammoniaproduced,allowsforasmoothertransition,asaspecificcapcanresultinmarketdisruptionduetotheregulatoryshock.Variousschemesarebeingpursued,includingmethodologydevelopmentbyIPHE(InternationalPartnershipforHydrogenandFuelCellsintheEconomy)andanammoniacertificationschemeunderdevelopmentbytheAmmoniaEnergyAssociation.Dependingontheapplication,differentammoniapuritylevelsmayberequired.Minormetalimpuritiesfromtheammoniafeedstockmaycauseproblemsin,forinstance,solidoxidefuelcells.Thus,solidoxidefuelcellsrequirehighlypurifiedammonia(Makhloufi,2020).CertificationschemescouldprovideboththeCO2-equivalentfootprintandthepuritygradeoftheammonia.Certificatesoforiginmayalsosupportpoliciestodevelopalevelplayingfieldwithinaneconomiczone.AcarbontaxisappliedforammoniaproductionwithintheEU,withcurrentlevelsataroundUSD75pertonneofCO2-equivalent,ontopofwhichtheEUrecentlyannouncedacarbonborderadjustmentmechanism(CBAM)onexternalCO2emissionsimportedtotheEU(Haahr,2021).Certificationschemeswouldenablethedeterminationofacarbonfootprintforimportedammonia,andthuscouldsupportthelevyofacarbontaxonammoniaproducedoutsidetheEU.Therevenuefromcarbontaxescanbeusedassubsidiesforsupplychainsofrenewablefuelsorforresearchondecarbonisedsolutions,whichwouldfavourtheimport-exportinfrastructureofrenewableammonia(andfossil-basedlow-carbonammonia)inEuropeandelsewhere.ThePortofTokyorecentlywaivedtheentryfeeforshipspoweredbyliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)andhydrogeninanefforttopromotecleanermarinefuels(ReutersStaff,2021).Suchpoliciesmayalsobeappliedtoammoniaasamaritimefuel.RENEWABLEAMMONIA734.FUTUREMARKETSFORDECARBONISEDAMMONIAKeyfindingsAmmoniaisbeingconsideredasazero-carbonfuelforthemaritimesector.•Ammoniahasbeendemonstratedasafuelsincethe19thcentury.Mostfamously,theUSNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration(NASA)usedammoniatofuelitsX-15hypersonicaircraftinthe1960s.•Maritimeenginemanufacturersexpecttocommercialiseammonia-fuelledtwo-strokeandfour-strokeenginesby2024or2025,fornewbuildsandretrofits.Ammoniaenginedevelopersbelievethattheycandelivercommercialperformancewithinexistingregulatorylimitsfornitrogenoxides.•Solidoxidefuelcellsarealsobeingdemonstrated,withpotentiallyhigherenergyefficiency(55-60%comparedto45-50%fortwo-strokeengines).•Variousconsortiahavebeenannounced,andthefirstammonia-fuelledvesselsareexpectedtobeoperatingatseaby2024or2025.Ammoniaisbeingconsideredasafuelforstationarypower.•Ammoniacandisplacecoalandnaturalgasinbothbaseloadandpeakerplants,atlargeorsmallscale,usinggasturbines,furnaces,enginesandfuelcells.•Ammoniacanalsobeusedtoreplacedieselinback-upandoff-gridapplications,usingenginesoralkalineorsolidoxidefuelcells.•Partialcracking,toproduceanammonia-hydrogenblend,canimprovethecombustionpropertiesofammonia.•InJapan,JERAisdemonstratingco-combustionof20%ammoniaand80%coalina1GWpowerplant.TheJapanesegovernmentroadmaptargetstheuseof30Mtoffuelammoniain2050,startingwithco-combustiontechnologiesandphasingoutfossilfuelsfor100%ammoniacombustion.Ammoniaisalsoproposedasahydrogencarrier,toovercomethestorageanddistributionchallengesofhydrogen.•Duringdecomposition,ammoniaiscrackedtoproducehydrogenandatmosphericnitrogen.•Hydrogenproducedfromimportedrenewableammoniacanbecheaperthanlocalrenewablehydrogen.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK74•Large-scaleammoniacrackershavebeenproposedtomeetnationalhydrogenimportdemand,includingatthePortofRotterdamintheNetherlandsandatWilhelmshaveninGermany,withcapacitiesofupto0.5Mtperyearofhydrogen(3.7Mtperyearofammonia).•Directuseofimportedammonia,wherepossible,wouldreduceconversionlosses.By2050,inthe1.5°Cscenario,themarketforammoniaasafuelformaritimetransportandforstationarypowerislargerthanallcurrentmarketsforammoniacombined.•Globalammoniademandincreasesfrom183Mtin2020to688Mtin2050.•Existingusesgrowto267Mtofammoniaforfertiliserand67Mtforotheruses.•By2050,themaritimesectorisexpectedtoconsume197Mtofammoniaasfuel.•By2050,ammoniaimportsasahydrogencarrierreach127Mt,supplyingdecarbonisedfeedstockandfuelforthechemicalandindustrialsectors.•Demandforammoniaasafuelforpowergenerationreaches30Mtby2050,basedonlyonstatedpolicieswithinJapan.Whilemanyofthesetechnologiesarealreadycommercialatscale,bottlenecksandbarriersexistthatmaylimitthespeedatwhichammoniaisdeployedasafuelandhydrogencarrier.•Governmentpoliciestoreducegreenhousegasemissionsareuncertain,causingdoubtandlimitinginvestment.•Electrolyserproductioncapacitywasreportedtobe2.1GWperyearin2020,whiletherequiredcapacityis40-65GWperyeartoproduce566Mtperyearofrenewableammoniaby2050.•Ammoniainfrastructuremustexpandbyafactorof10-15,requiringtensofbillionsofUSDinannualinvestmentinstorageandtransportassets.•Theuseofammoniainenergymarketsisdrivenbytheneedtoreducegreenhousegasemissions,andthereforenewrenewableorlow-carbonammoniaisrequired.•Demandforammoniainenergyapplicationsshouldnotputfertilisersupply,andthusfoodproduction,atrisk.Ammoniaiscurrentlyusedinvariousapplications,butprimarilyasafertiliser(seesection1.1).Newmarketsfordecarbonisedammoniamayincludeitsuseasafuelforthemaritimeindustryandforpowergeneration,orasahydrogencarrier(IRENA,2020c).AnoverviewofthepotentialrolesofammoniainthehydrogeneconomyisshowninFigure27.RENEWABLEAMMONIA75Asearlyasthe19thcentury,ammoniawasproposedasafuel(SousaCardosoetal.,2021).ItwasusedtofuelbusesinBelgiumduringtheSecondWorldWar(Image5),duetothescarcityofotherfuels(Kroch,1945).Mostfamously,NASAusedammoniatofuelitsX-15hypersonicrocket-poweredaircraftinthe1960s(Valera-Medinaetal.,2018).Morerecently,ammoniahasgainedinterestasafuelforstationarypowergeneration(Valera-Medinaetal.,2018)andforinternationalshipping(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).Figure27SchematicoftheammoniaeconomyPowerammoniaAirseparationMethanereformer(SMR)HOelectrolysisFertiliserNHtransportNHstorageNHsynthesisNOxandNOremovalChemicalprecursorMaritimefuelPowergenerationFuelcellvehiclesHydrogengridNHdecompositionPowerammoniaPowerammoniaWasteammoniaHydrogenFeedstockforchemicalindustryHHNHHNNHHHHHHSource:AdaptedandmodifiedfromProtonVentures(2021)andSousaCardosoetal.(2021).INNOVATIONOUTLOOK76Dahlberg,GreenJr.,andAverywereamongthefirsttoadvocateforammoniaasanenergyvectorinthehydrogeneconomyinthe1980s(Avery,1988;Dahlberg,1982;Green,1982).Ascenariowhereammoniaplaysadominantroleintheenergylandscapecanbecoinedtheammoniaeconomy(MacFarlaneetal.,2020;Morlanésetal.,2020).Thecurrentenergylandscapedependsstronglyoncarbon-basedfuels.Usingammoniaasanenergyvectorallowstobreakthecarboncyclebynotintroducingcarboninthefirstplace.Withrenewableammonia,theenergyconversionprocessstartswithairandwater,andendswithairandwater.Thepotentialmarketsizeforammoniaasafuelislargerthanthecombinedcurrentmarketsforammonia(MacFarlaneetal.,2020).However,therighttechnologies,therightmarkets,therightcoststructuresandtherightcertificationschemesneedtobeinplaceforimplementationofdecarbonisedfuels.Therateatwhichtherenewableammoniamarketwillexpandinthecomingdecadedependsonhowfastammoniaisadoptedasahydrogencarrierandfuel,aswellasontheelectrolyserproductioncapacityandammoniatransportinfrastructuredeployment.Asdiscussedinsection4.5,theelectrolyserproductioncapacityandammoniatransportinfrastructureshouldbescaledbyatleastanorderofmagnitudetoproducesufficientrenewablefuelsupto2050.Variouscommercial-scaleprojectsandproductshavebeenannounced,butcurrentlyonlysmall-scaledemonstrationsareinoperation.Thesedemonstrationsassessthetechnologicalviabilityofthepower-to-ammonia-to-powervaluechaininDenmark,Japan,theUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates(Brown,2018a;Valera-Medinaetal.,2021).However,theammoniavaluechainmustbedemonstratedatacommerciallyrelevantscale(Johannessen,2020),toconvinceinvestorsofitsviability.Mostoftheannouncedcommercial-scaleprojectsareexpectedtobecompletearound2025.Image5Ammonia-fuelledbusinBelgiumduringtheSecondWorldWarImagecourtesyofCamprigaz,Ltd.,1945.RENEWABLEAMMONIA774.1AmmoniaasahydrogencarrierAmmoniaisproposedasahydrogencarrier(Smith,HillandTorrente-Murciano,2020),toovercomestorageanddistributionchallengesofhydrogensupplyforthechemicalindustryorasafuel(Cesaro,ThatcherandBañares-Alcántara,2020;Valera-Medinaetal.,2018;ZamfirescuandDincer,2008).Ina1.5°Cscenario,demandforimportedammoniaasahydrogencarrierwouldreach127Mtofammonia.Duringthedecompositionreaction,ammoniaiscrackedtoproducehydrogen(H2)andnitrogen(N2).Hydrogencanbeproducedfromammoniaviacatalyticcrackingorviaplasmadecomposition(Makepeaceetal.,2019);however,thelattergenerallyhastoohighofanenergycostforindustrialapplications(Rouwenhorstetal.,2020d).Typicalcatalystsforcatalyticcrackingincludemetalssuchascobalt,iron,nickelandruthenium(BellandTorrente-Murciano,2016;Ganleyetal.,2004;Nielsenetal.,2021).Morerecently,abundantmaterialssuchascalciumimide,lithiumimideandsodiumimidehavealsobeenproposed(Makepeaceetal.,2019).Dependingontheapplication,partialdecompositionofammoniamaybeallthatisrequired,producingafuelmixofammoniaandhydrogenatvariousratios.However,forapplicationsrequiringpurehydrogen,completedecompositionmustbefollowedbyanadditionalpurificationofthehydrogen.Notably,ammoniadecompositionshouldbereservedforscenarioswheredirectammoniauseisnotfeasible,astheammoniadecompositionreactionisendothermic–itrequiresadditionalenergy.Inthebestcase,ammoniadecompositionconsumes13%ofthestoredenergyat100%conversionefficiencytohydrogenandnitrogen(Makepeaceetal.,2015).Residualammoniamayberemovedwithsolidmaterials(Christensenetal.,2006;Helminenetal.,2000),orconvertedwithoxygentowaterandnitrogen(Laanetal.,2019;Lanetal.,2020).Incasepurehydrogenisrequiredwithoutnitrogen,suchasforPEMfuelcells,hydrogencanbepurifiedwithmembranes,pressureswingadsorptionorcryogenicdistillation(Lamb,DolanandKennedy,2019;Luetal.,2007).Nowadays,ammoniadecompositionsystems,alsotermedammoniacrackers,arecommerciallyavailableforthemetallurgyindustry.Typicalcommercialammoniacrackershavecapacitiesof1to1500kilogramsofhydrogenperday,equivalenttoaround0.2to118ktofammoniaperyearonamassbasis,atenergyefficienciesof30-60%onalowerheatingvaluebasis.Theseunitsoperateattemperaturesof850°Cto1000°C(Makepeace,2020),andbothimprovementsinenergyefficiencyandmilderoperatingconditionswillberequiredformorewidespreadapplication,especiallyforlarge-scalehydrogenproduction.Twoammoniacrackersarealsooperationalforheavywaterproduction,withthelargestplantrequiringaround490ktofammoniaperyear(ComisionesdePresupuestoyHaciendaydeCienciayTechnolia,2003).Inrecentyears,feasibilitystudiesonlarge-scaleammoniacrackerswerereported(Siemensetal.,2020),andlarge-scaleammoniacrackerswererecentlyproposedforhydrogenproductioninnorthernEurope(Table5).TheproducedhydrogencanbefedtotheEuropeanhydrogengrid,whichisproposedtospan6800kilometresby2030and22900kilometresby2040(Janssen,2020).Around75%oftheEuropeanhydrogengridwillbebasedontheexistingnaturalgasgrid(Janssen,2020).TheTranshydrogenAlliance,aconsortiumincludingTrammo,Varo,ProtonVentures,andthePortofRotterdam,announcedplansfor500ktofhydrogenproductionannuallyfromammoniadecomposition,withtheinitialstageoftheprojecttobecompletedby2024(ProtonVenturesB.V.,2021).Forreference,thecurrentindustrialhydrogendemandintheNetherlandsisaround1500ktofhydrogenannually(TNO,2020).Theammoniafedtotheproposedcrackeris3.7Mtperyearbasedon75%ammoniaconversiontohydrogenonamassbasis(Nielsenetal.,2021).ThePortofRotterdamhasannouncedthatitwillimportupto18Mtofhydrogenby2050,equivalentto135Mtofammonia(PortofRotterdam,2020).INNOVATIONOUTLOOK78Furthermore,UniperannouncedanammoniacrackerfortheportofWilhelmshaveninGermany.Theproposedhydrogenoutputis295ktofhydrogenperyear,equivalentto10%oftheprojectedhydrogendemandinGermanyby2030(Uniper,2021).Theammoniatobefedtothecrackeris2.2Mtperyear,basedon75%ammoniaconversiontohydrogenonamassbasis.Theproducedhydrogencouldbeusedtofiretwocombined-cyclegasturbinesof500MW,forexample,ormultiplerefineries.Importingrenewableammoniafromlocationswithlow-costrenewableresourcesofbelowUSD20perMWhandconvertingtohydrogenwouldbecompetitivewithproducinglocalrenewablehydrogeninnorthernEuropewithoffshorewindataboutUSD50perMWh,despiteconversionlossesintheformercase(IEAandNEA,2020;IRENA,2021a).4.2AmmoniaasastationaryfuelAmmoniacanalsobeuseddirectlyasafuel(IEA,2021b).Similartohydrocarbonfuels,energyisstoredinchemicalbondsandisreleasedbyreactingammoniawithoxygen,formingwateranddinitrogen(atmosphericnitrogen).Instationarypowerapplications,ammoniacanbeusedasafueltodisplacecoalandnaturalgas(BicerandDincer,2018;JapanScienceandTechnologyAgency,2017;Kobayashietal.,2019;Valera-Medinaetal.,2018)inbothbaseloadapplicationsandpeakerplants,operatingbelow25%capacityfactor,toprovidestabilityinthegridwithahighpenetrationofintermittentsolarandwindpower(Cesaroetal.,2021).Alternatively,ammoniamaybeusedtodisplacedieselinback-uporoff-gridapplications.Ina1.5°Cscenario,demandforammoniaasafuelforpowergenerationreaches30Mtby2050,basedonlyonstatedpolicieswithinJapan.Inthecaseofcoal-firedpowerplants,ammoniacanreducethecarbonfootprintbyco-firingamixtureofupto60%ammoniabyenergycontent(Tamuraetal.,2020;J.Zhangetal.,2020).Thiswasrecentlydemonstratedina1.2MWfurnace(Tamuraetal.,2020).AmmoniacandecreaseNOxemissionsfromcoalcombustion,althoughanammoniaconcentrationabove40%resultsinemissionsofunburntammonia(Ishihara,ZhangandIto,2020;J.Zhangetal.,2020).FollowingsuccessfulburnertestsinAugust2021(JERA,2021),by2024JERAaimstodemonstrateco-firingupto20%ammoniaina1GWcoal-firedpowerplant(Image6).Thetransitionto50-60%ammoniaco-firingisexpectedbythe2030s,and100%ammoniafiringistargetedbythe2040s.Table5Overviewofplannedfacilitiesforlarge-scaleammoniadecompositionLocationCompanyStart-upyearAmmoniafeed(Mt/yr)Hydrogenoutput(kt/yr)HydrogenapplicationSourceCommercialplantsRotterdam,NetherlandsTranshydrogenAlliance2024long-term-3.7-500One-thirdofcurrentDutchhydrogendemand(ProtonVenturesB.V.,2021)Wilhelmshaven,GermanyUniper20302.229510%ofGermanhydrogendemandby2030(Uniper,2021)RENEWABLEAMMONIA79Similarly,theNorwegiangovernmentproposestoreplacetheexistingcoal-firedpowerplantinLongyearbyenontheislandofSvalbardwithamulti-fuelenginecapableofrunningonammonia(Holsen,2021).Ammoniacanalsobeco-firedwithnaturalgasorkeroseneingasturbines(Kobayashietal.,2019;Valera-Medinaetal.,2017a;Xiaoetal.,2017).Furthermore,fullydecomposedammoniaintohydrogenandnitrogen(ISPT,2017),orpartiallydecomposedammoniawitharound30%decomposedammonia,canbefiredingasturbinesathighstability(EPRI,2021;Valera-Medinaetal.,2017b,2019).NOxemissionsbelow50ppmhavebeenreportedforammonia-hydrogenblends(Kobayashietal.,2019;Kurataetal.,2017;Valera-Medinaetal.,2019).SteaminjectionisapromisingpracticetoreduceNOXemissionsbelowestablishedregulatorylimitsintheseblendswithoutsacrificingefficiency(GutešaBožoetal.,2019).Partialdecompositionofammoniatoanammonia-hydrogen-nitrogenblendcompensatesforthelowflamespeedofammoniaandalsothehighflamespeedofhydrogen(Valera-Medinaetal.,2018).Ammonia-hydrogenblendshavesimilarfuelcharacteristicsastowngasproducedfromcoaloroil(Valera-Medinaetal.,2017b).Variousindustrialcombined-cyclegasturbinemanufacturershavecommittedto100%hydrogenfiringcapabilityby2030(EUTurbines,2019);however,itwouldbeundesirabletofullydecomposeammoniatopurifiedhydrogenforthisapplication,duetotheenergypenaltyofammoniadecompositionandhydrogenpurification.Therefore,researchalsofocusesoncombustionofpureammonia,andpartiallydecomposedammonia,notingthatexhaustheatcanbeusedforthecrackingprocess.Inthecaseofcoal-firedpowerplants,ammoniacanreducethecarbonfootprintbyco-firingamixtureofupto60%ammoniabyenergycontent.Thetransitionto50-60%ammoniaco-firingisexpectedbythe2030s,and100%ammoniafiringistargetedbythe2040s.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK80Sofar,stableoperationofgasturbineswithpureammoniahasbeendemonstratedonlyatasmallscale(50kW)(Kurataetal.,2017,2019),usingcyclonicburners(Sorrentinoetal.,2019).IHIisdevelopinga2MWgasturbinethatcancombust100%ammoniawithaliquidammoniainjectionsystem,whichisexpectedtobecommercialby2023(Muraki,2018).MitsubishiPowerisdevelopinga40MWclassgasturbinethatcancombust100%ammonia(Image7),whichisexpectedtobecommercialbyaround2025(Patel,2021).AccordingtotheJapaneseSIPenergycarriersprogramme,anammonia-fedgasturbinewithacapacityabove100MWwillbecommerciallyavailableby2030(Muraki,2019).Ammoniahasalsobeenproposedasafuelforgasturbinesinothercountries,suchasintheNetherlands(ProtonVenturesB.V.,2016)andtheUnitedStates(EPRI,2021).Solidoxidefuelcellsandalkalinefuelcellscanbeusedforsmall-scaleapplications(<1MW)(PalysandDaoutidis,2020;Zhaoetal.,2019),wheretheefficiencyofothertechnologiesistoolow.Ammoniacanbeusedforoff-gridapplications,suchastelecommunicationtowersorback-upaggregates(Cesaro,ThatcherandBañares-Alcántara,2020;FuelCellsBulletin,2013;Klerkeetal.,2008;RoyalSociety,2020).Forinstance,off-gridelectricityproducedfromammoniainanalkalinefuelcellcancostlessthanUSD0.26perkWh,lowerthanadieselgeneratoratUSD0.31perkWh(OvirohandJen,2018).Alternatively,ammonia-drivengeneratorsetsaresmall-scalecombustionenginesforoff-gridpower(RoyalSociety,2020).Thesemayfindapplicationsinisolatedcommunitiesin,forexample,theArcticandAfrica,inparticularforpeakgeneration,displacingdiesel.However,forcentralisedapplications,conventionalpowerplantswillremaindominant.Ascombined-cyclegasturbinesystemscanapproach60%efficiencyonalowerheatingvaluebasis,theefficiencygainsbyusingsolidoxidefuelcellsarenotexpectedtooutweightheadditionalcostrequired,atleastnotwithinthisdecade.Existinggasturbineassetsmayberetrofittedtocombustammonia,furtherminimisingthecost.Especiallywhentheutilisationrateislow,forexampleforpeakerplants,thecapitalcostdisadvantageofsolidoxidefuelcellsnegativelyaffectstheoveralleconomics(Cesaroetal.,2021).PEMfuelcellscanalsobeused,althoughthesecurrentlyhaveahighcapitalcostandcanonlybefedwithhighpurityhydrogen.Alkalinefuelcellsrequirealowerhydrogenpurity,butrequirearelativelylargearea(Cesaroetal.,2021).Ammoniafiringincoal-firedpowerplantsandgasturbinessuggeststhatexistingassetscanbedecarbonised,therebypreventinglocked-inCO2emissionsorstrandedassets.Image6MitsubishiPower’sH-25SeriesgasturbinesImagecourtesyofMitsubishiHeavyIndustries,2021.RENEWABLEAMMONIA81Casestudy2AmmoniaatfuelvalueinJapanJapanhasbeenoneofthemainproponentsofrenewableammoniaasanenergycarrier,withaconcreteroadmapforimplementationofammoniaasafuel(Figure28).Alreadyin2014,Japanlaunchedatechnologydevelopmentconsortium,EnergyCarriers,promotedbytheCross-ministerialStrategicInnovationPromotionProgram(SIP).ThisispartoftheJapaneseframeworktoachievecarbonneutralityby2050.Figure28RoadmapoftheammoniafuelvaluechainforJapanRenewableenergyFossilfuelCCSEORUtilisation˜AmmoniaproductionfromrenewableenergyFSofgreenandblueammoniasupplychainsEstimatedpricefromUStoJapanUSDtonne(USDkg-H)GTsIndustrialfurnacesLarge-scaledemoandfacilitydesignPreparation-MtMtMtDevelopmentandcommercialisationDevelopmentandcommercialisationDevelopmentandcommercialisationstandardisationetcImplementationImplementationImplementationImplementationMarineenginesSmallMediumACCGTCoalpowerplants(˜MW)BlueammoniaGreenammoniaAdaptedfromMuraki(2021).INNOVATIONOUTLOOK82Intheshortterm,Japanplanstoimportlow-carbonfossil-basedammonia,whilerenewableammoniawillbeimportedbeyond2030(IEA,2021b).AmmoniaisconsideredinJapanatanearlierstagethaninothercountries,whichcanbeattributedtothehighpricesforimportedfossilfuelinJapan.LNGcostaroundUSD7-16perGJinJapanoverthepast10years,andemitsaround56.1kilogramsofCO2perGJofenergygeneration(SenterNovem,2005).CurrentcarbontaxesinJapancostaroundUSD3pertonneofCO2(ArimuraandMatsumoto,2020),resultinginanaddedcostofonlyUSD0.2perGJ.However,ifhighercarbontaxesofUSD50-100perGJareintroducedinthelongerterm,thisaddedcostincreasestoUSD2.8-5.6perGJ,roughlya25%premiumonthecostofLNG.Thiswouldmakelow-carbonammoniacompetitiveinthelongterm(Figure19).Low-carbonfossil-basedammoniaisexpectedtohaveamarketvalueofaroundUSD350-400pertonneofammonia(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020)or,inanotheranalysis,USD340pertonneofammonia(Muraki,2021),equivalenttoaroundUSD19-21perGJorUSD18perGJ.Inthelongterm,renewableammoniawillprobablybeavailableatacostbelowUSD400pertonneofammonia(seesection2.4),equivalenttolessthanUSD21perGJ.Thus,ammoniaprovidesacost-competitivealternativetofossilfuelsinthelongterm.InitialshipmentsofammoniaforpowergenerationweredeliveredfromSaudiArabiatoJapanin2020,startingwith40tonnesof“blue”fossil-basedammonia(SaudiAramco,2020),launchinganewinternationalmarketforammoniaasafuel.Japanexpectstoimportammoniaforpowergeneration,totalling0.5-1Mtperyearby2025,3-5Mtperyearby2030and30Mtperyearby2050(ArgusMedia,2021c,2021d).TheinfrastructureofJapanisespeciallysuitableforusingammoniadirectly,asthenationhasinsufficientrenewableresourcestosatisfyitsenergydemand,andmostpowerplantsarelocatedinportareas.ItisexpectedthattheammoniareceivingandstoragefacilitiesinJapanwillbeexpandedoverthenextfewyears,tofacilitateammoniaco-firingingasturbinesandcoal-firedplants(Muraki,2021).Thegradualincreaseinammoniauseinthepowersectorgoeshandinhandwiththesupplychainscale-up.Forreference,ifallJapanesecoal-firedpowerplantswouldbeco-fedwith20%ammonia,thiswouldrequirearound20Mtofammonia,similartotheamountofammoniacurrentlyshippedworldwideeachyear.RENEWABLEAMMONIA834.3AmmoniaasamaritimefuelforinternationalshippingInrecentdecades,ammoniahasbeenproposedasatransportfuelforbuses,trams,locomotivesandaircraft(Giddeyetal.,2017;SousaCardosoetal.,2021;Valera-Medinaetal.,2018).WhilenumerousR&Dprojectsarefocusedonthoseareas,ammoniaisproposedformorewidespreaduseasamarinefuelforinternationalshipping,toreplaceheavyfueloilandLNG(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020;MærskMc-KinneyMøllerCenterforZeroCarbonShipping,2021;Philibert,2020b).Directelectrificationofinternationalshippingisnotpossibleduetothelongdistancestravelled.Around95%ofallfreighttransporttakesplaceatsea,consumingaround10%ofthetotaltransportenergyworldwide(BP,2020;USEIA,2017)andaccountingfor2.6%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions(Ayvalı,TsangandVanVrijaldenhoven,2021).AccordingtoitsInitialGHGStrategy,theInternationalMaritimeOrganization(IMO)aimstoreducethesector’semissions50%by2050ascomparedto2008levels(IMO,2019).Variousshippingcompanieshavecommittedtomoreambitiousemissionreductiontargets,drivenbynationaltargets,customerdemandand/orsustainabilitygoals.Forexample,Maerskhascommittedtonetzerocarbonemissionsby2050(Maersk,2019).Itscurrentfleet,around750containerships,wouldrequirearound20Mtofammoniaperyearifammoniaaloneisusedasafuel.Shipstypicallyhavelifetimesof20-25yearsorlonger,implyingthatinvestmentsfordecarbonisationofnew-builtshipsmustbemadesoonandthatnetzerovesselsmustbeoperationalby2030,tomeetthegreenhousegasemissionreductiontargetsby2050.Recently,aconsortiumofvariousindustrialcompaniesexpressedtheopinionthatammoniaislikelythepreferredfuelfortheinternationalmaritimesector(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020).Recentoutlooksestimateademandforammoniaasamarinefuelrangingfrom100Mttomorethan1000Mtofammoniaby2050(Table13inAnnexF),dependingonthefuelmixshareofammonia,thefuturedemandscenarioandthespeedofsectoraldecarbonisation.By2050,ina1.5°Cscenario,theestimateddemandforammoniaasamarinefuelwouldamountto197Mt,ofwhich183Mtwouldbeforinternationalshippingand15Mtwouldbefordomesticshipping.Forreference,thecurrenttotalammoniaproductionamountstoaround183Mtofammonia,ofwhicharound18-20Mtisshippedinternationally(Hatfield,2020,2021).VariousconsortiaforthecommercialisationofammoniaasafuelinthemaritimesectorarelistedinTable6.Table6ListofselectedconsortiaforammoniademonstrationsinthemaritimesectorProjectDurationAimSourceMANtwo-strokeammoniaengine(Denmark)2019-2024USD5millionprojectledbyMANEnginestodevelopthefirstammonia-fuelledtwo-strokeengineby2022,andcommercialiseitby2024.(MANEnergySolutions,2019,2021)GettingtoZeroCoalition(Global)2019-Globalcoalitioninvestigatingpathwaystodecarboniseinternationalshipping.HeadedbyFriendsofOceanAction,GlobalMaritimeForumandWorldEconomicForum.(GettingtoZeroCoalition,2019)Wärtsiläfour-strokeammoniaengine(Norway)2020-2023ProjectledbyWärtsilätotestanammonia-fuelledfour-strokeengineatfullscaleandinthelongterm,supportedbyaUSD2milliongrantfromtheNorwegianResearchCouncil.(WärtsiläCorporation,2020)INNOVATIONOUTLOOK84ProjectDurationAimSourceShipFCAmmoniaproject(Europe)2020-2024A14-memberconsortiumofEuropeanindustrialcompaniesandresearchorganisations,co-ordinatedbyNCEMaritimeCleanTech.TheVikingEnergyshipwillberetrofittedwitha2MWammonia-fuelledsolidoxidefuelcell.ThetotalprojectbudgetisaroundUSD28million.(Eidesvik,2020)ZeroEmissionsfromShipsUsingAmmoniaFuel(Japan)2020-NYKLine,JapanMarineUnitedCorporation,IHIPowerSystems,andNipponKaijiKyokai(ClassNK)signedajointR&Dagreementforthecommercialisationofammonia-fuelledships,includingagascarrier,abargeforoffshorebunkeringandatugboat.(NYKLine,2020)MærskMc-KinneyMøllerCenterforZeroCarbonShipping(Denmark)2020-Thisresearchinstituteintendstodevelopnewfueltypesandtechnologiestodecarbonisethemaritimesector.ThelaunchingpartnersaretheAmericanBureauofShipping,A.P.Moller–Maersk,Cargill,MANEnergySolutions,MitsubishiHeavyIndustries,NYKLinesandSiemensEnergy.Theinstitutelaunchedwithastart-updonationofaroundUSD60millionfromtheA.P.MøllerFoundation.(Maersk,2020)TheCastorInitiative(Singapore)2020-AcoalitionofLloyd’sRegister,MISCBerhad,MANEnergySolutions,SamsungHeavyIndustries(SHI),Yara,andtheMaritimeandPortAuthorityofSingaporeaimstobuildanammonia-fuelledtankerby2025.(Lloyd’sRegister,2021)PotentialforAmmoniaasaMarineFuelinSingapore(Singapore)2021-AcoalitionoftheAmericanBureauofShipping,NanyangTechnologicalUniversity,SingaporeandtheAmmoniaSafetyandTrainingInstitute(ASTI)aimstostudythepotentialofammoniaforSingapore,exploringsupply,bunkeringandsafetychallengeswithammoniaasamaritimefuel.Safetyprotocolsandpossiblegapsinthesupplychainwillbeidentified.ExxonMobil,HoeghLNG,MANEnergySolutionsSingapore,JurongPort,PSASingaporeandITOCHUGrouparecontributingtechnicalinformation.(ABS,2021a)AmmoniaasmarinefuelinSingapore(Singapore)2021-Afeasibilitystudyforrenewableammoniaship-to-shipbunkeringisbeingconductedatthePortofSingaporebyA.P.Moller–MaerskA/S,FleetManagementLimited,KeppelOffshore&Marine,MaerskMc-KinneyMollerCenterforZeroCarbonShipping,SumitomoCorporationandYaraInternationalASA.(Maersk,2021)Maritimeenginemanufacturersexpecttocommercialiseammonia-fuelledtwo-strokeandfour-strokeenginesby2024or2025,forbothnewbuildsandretrofits(MANEnergySolutions,2019;WärtsiläCorporation,2021).Dual-fuelenginesallowforfuelflexibilityduringtheimplementationofammoniaasafuel.Thefirstammonia-fuelledvesselsareexpectedtobeoperatingatseaby2024and2025(Table6),withmorewidespreadadoptionby2030(Brown,2020l,2020m;GriegStar,2020).RENEWABLEAMMONIA85Preliminarystudiesshowthatthecombustioncharacteristicsofammonia—slowflamevelocity,slowerheatrelease—donotprohibititsuseasafuel(Ayvalı,TsangandVanVrijaldenhoven,2021).Rather,thehighNOxproductionduringcombustion,thelowflammabilityandlowradiationintensitypresentresearchchallenges.Nonetheless,enginedevelopersbelievethatthetechnologycandelivercommercialperformancewithinexistingregulatorylimitsforNOxemissions(WärtsiläCorporation,2021).Inadditiontoconventionalenginetechnologies,solidoxidefuelcellsareconsidered.Abenefitofthistechnologyisthehigherenergyefficiency(around55-60%onalowerheatingvaluebasis),ascomparedtothetwo-strokeengine(around45-50%onalowerheatingvaluebasis)(MANDiesel&Turbo,2017),therebydecreasingthefuelrequirement.TheShipFCconsortiumaimstodemonstratetheuseofammoniafuelusinga2MWsolidoxidefuelcell,startingin2024(Image8)(Eidesvik,2020).Solidoxidefuelcellsaremainlysuitableforstill,inlandwaterwaysratherthanforharshconditionsintheoceans.Althoughtechnologicalchallengesarenotexpectedtobeasignificanthurdle,experiencewithammoniafuelisrequiredbeforeitcanbewidelyadopted,notleasttoinformthedevelopmentofneworrevisedcodesandstandards.Therefore,ammoniafuelwillbedemonstratedintheportofSingaporeinvariousconsortia(Table6).LNGwasdemonstratedasafuelinSingaporefrom2017to2020,andinspirationcanbedrawnfromthisforammonia.TheportofSingaporeservesasalivinglabwithaphysicalanddigitaltestenvironment,andasaregulatorysandbox,todevelopsafebunkeringproceduresforammoniaandgainoperationalexperience(Atchison,2022a).Codesandstandardsforthesafeuseofammoniahavebeenlongestablishedwithintherefrigeration,chemical,andpowerindustries,whichcanalsobeappliedandstrengthenedforthemaritimesector(ABS,2021a).Afirststeptodecarboniseshippingistoconvertammoniatankerstouseammoniaasafuel,suchastheNutrien/Exmarlow-carbonammoniavessel(Nutrien,2021),andtheZEED’sMSGreenAmmonia(GriegEdge,2021).Ifammoniawereadoptedacrossthebroadergascarriersector,thiswouldrepresent5%oftheshippingsector’sfueldemand.Thisisroughlytheamountofzero-carbonfueladoptionrequiredinthemaritimesectorby2030,tocomplywiththeParisAgreement’s1.5°Cscenario(Osterkamp,SmithandSøgaard,2021).Image7TheVikingEnergy,whichwillberetrofittedwithanammonia-fuelledsolidoxidefuelcellImagecourtesyofEidesvik,2021.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK86Ontheregulatoryside,somestepsarerequiredforwidespreadadoptionofammoniaasamaritimefuel(ABS,2021b).AmmoniaisnotcurrentlyapprovedasafuelbytheIMOundereithertheIGCorIGFCodeandso,fornow,everyshipneedsindividualapprovaltouseammonia.Aftertheinitialdemonstrationvesselshaveprovensafeoperations,andproponentsdevelopnewcodeswithintheIMOtoassurethesafeuseofammoniaasamaritimefuel,theroll-outofammonia-fuelledshipswillaccelerate.Thesupportofaflagstatecanaidtointroduceammoniaasafuel,similartothecaseofmethanolasafuel.4.4RenewableammoniaversusotherenergycarriersLow-carbonammoniacanbeusedasahydrogencarrierandasafuel,butalternativessuchasliquidorganichydrogencarriers(LOHCs),andcarbon-basedbiofuelsande-fuelsarealsoproposed,suchasmethanolandsyntheticmethane.Fossil-basedammoniawithoutcarbonmitigationdoesnothavesignificantbenefitsoverotherfossilfuelsintermsofcarbonfootprintandshouldbeavoidedforenergyapplications(Al-Aboosietal.,2021).Somecharacteristicsofammoniaasafuelinclude(Al-Aboosietal.,2021;BartelsandPate,2008;Valera-Medinaetal.,2018):•Ammoniahasagravimetricenergydensityof22.5MJperkilogramonahigherheatingvaluebasis,whichiscomparabletocarbon-basedfuelssuchasmethanol(22.7MJ/kg),ethanol(29.7MJ/kg),andcoal(15MJ/kgforlignite,and27MJ/kgforanthracite).Theenergydensityofammoniaislowerthanthatofnaturalgas(55MJ/kg),diesel(45MJ/kg)andhydrogen(142MJ/kg)byweight.•Liquidammoniahasavolumetricenergydensityof12.7MJperlitre(L),whichislowerthanforheavyfueloil(35MJ/L)butcomparabletomethanol(15MJ/L),andhigherthanforliquefiedhydrogen(8.5MJ/L).Thus,atankofammoniacontains1.5timestheenergyofthesamesizetankofliquefiedhydrogen.•Ammoniacanbeliquefiedunderrelativelymildconditions,eitherbycompressionto8barat20°Corbycoolingto-33°Catatmosphericpressure.Thisalsomakestransportofammoniaaffordablecomparedtohydrogen(BartelsandPate,2008).•Ammoniahasanestablishedworldwideinfrastructureforammoniaproduction,storageanddistributionwitharound200portterminalsforammoniacurrentlyinoperation.Ammoniahasaproventrackrecordofsafehandling.•Ammoniahasanarrowflammabilityrange(15-28%inair),makingfireaccidentsunlikelytooccur.•Ammoniahasahighoctaneratingof120,comparedtopetrol(86-93).Thus,itcanbeusedininternalcombustionengineswithsomemodifications.Furthermore,ammoniacanbedirectlyusedinsolidoxidefuelcells.•CO2isnotrequiredforammoniaproduction,andCO2isnotemittedduringcombustion.Also,sulphurisnotpresent,eliminatingSOxemissionsfromcombustion.Rather,atmosphericnitrogenisrequired,whichisabundantinair(at780000ppm)andmuchcheapertocapturethanCO2(at420ppm).Thespecificationsdiscussedaboveestablishthetechnicalfeasibilityforammoniatobeconsideredasanalternativefuel.However,thedecisiveenablerforammoniaasafuelcomparedtoalternativesisthecostperenergyunit.RENEWABLEAMMONIA87HydrogencarrierAscomparedtohydrogen,ammoniaisshippedundermilderconditions,leadingtoalowertransportcost(Hanketal.,2020).Alternatively,liquidorganichydrogencarriers(LOHCs)areconsideredforhydrogentransport.However,variousanalysesshowthattransport,storageandreconversionofhydrogeninammoniahasalowercostthanliquidhydrogenorLOHCs(Aziz,WijayantaandNandiyanto,2020;IEA,2019a;Wijayantaetal.,2019).Toanextent,thisisbecauseammoniahasahighervolumetrichydrogendensitythanliquefiedhydrogenandLOHCs.Ammoniaisalreadyaglobalcommodity,transportedinternationallybyshipandpipeline,whereasaglobalinfrastructureforLOHCsorliquidhydrogendoesnotexistyet.Inthecaseofdirectlyusingammonia,ratherthandecompositiontohydrogen,ammoniabecomesevenmorecompetitive(Wijayantaetal.,2019).MaritimesectorAmmoniaisconsideredasoneofthedominantoptionsfortheinternationalmaritimesector,asitisalreadywidelyavailableatarelevantscalewithinternationalportinfrastructureinplace(RoyalSociety,2020),althoughfurtherscale-upisrequired.AcomparisonofpropertiesforvariousfuelsisprovidedinTable7.Table7ComparisonofphysicalandchemicalfuelpropertiesforinternationalshippingFuelSupplyenergy(MJ/kg,LHV)Energydensity(MJ/L,LHV)RelativetankvolumeSupplypressure(bar)Injectionpressure(bar)CO₂emissionfromcompletecombustion(gCO₂/km)SOXemissionfromcompletecombustion(gSOX/km)Heavyfueloil40.5351.007-8950490.36Liquefiednaturalgas(-162°C)50221.59300-380300-380370.02Liquefiedpetroleumgas46261.3550600-700--Methanol19.9152.3313500430.02Ethanol26211.7510500--Ammonia(-33°C)18.612.72.7683600-70000Hydrogen(-253°C)1208.54.12--00Corvus,batteryrack0.290.33106.1--00TeslaModel3batterycell21700.82.514.0--00Note:SOx=sulphuroxide;LHV=lowerheatingvalue.AdaptedfromAyvalı,TsangandVanVrijaldenhoven(2021)andMANEnergySolutions(2019).INNOVATIONOUTLOOK88Ascomparedtohydrogen,ammoniaisshippedandstoredundermilderconditions,resultinginalowercostasashippingfuel(Hanketal.,2020).Carbon-basedsyntheticfuelssuchasmethanolandmethanecanalsobeusedasamaritimefuel(Goeppert,OlahandSuryaPrakash,2017)butthesewillrequireacircularcarbonsource,namelydirectaircapture(DAC),whichisexpectedtobeaffordablelaterthandecarbonisationisrequired,inpartbecausethecurrentcostofDACisprohibitivelyhighforfuelproduction(Fasihi,EfimovaandBreyer,2019;IEA,2013).Furthermore,methaneslippagefrom(synthetic)naturalgasmayactuallycausehighergreenhousegasemissionsthanfromheavyfueloil,ifcombustionisnotcomplete(LindstadandRialland,2020).Biofuelsmaynotbeabletoscalesufficientlytosatisfymaritimedemand,becauseonlyasmallamountoftheavailablebiomasscanbeprocessedforfuelapplicationsaffordably,andadditionalcapacitywouldincreasethecostsubstantially(IEA,2020a).CO2emissionscanbecapturedpost-combustionfromshipengines,orpre-combustionduringfuelreformation,althoughthisrequiresadditionalon-boardcapacityforCO2storage(IEA,2021b).Thus,hydrogenandcarbon-basedfuelsarenotexpectedtobesufficienttoachievethe50%greenhousegasemissionreductionby2050targetedbytheIMO(IMO,2019).AcomparisonofammoniaandmethanolasmaritimefuelsisprovidedinTable8,astheseareamongthemainfueloptionsconsideredfordecarbonisingthemaritimesector(DNVGL,2020).Inconclusion,ammoniaisexpectedtobecomethedominantfuelfordecarboniseddeepseashipping,whereasbatteriesmayplayadominantrolefordecarbonisedinlandshippingandcoastalshipping,andotherfuelssuchasbiofuels,methanolandhydrogenmaybeusedforpassengershipsandlargeferries(Liebreich,GrabkaandPajda,2021).Ifammoniaisnotacceptedasamaritimefuel,thiswillslowthedecarbonisationofthemaritimesectorbyaroundfiveyears(MærskMc-KinneyMøllerCenterforZeroCarbonShipping,2021).Table8ComparisonofammoniaandmethanolasamaritimefuelAmmoniaMethanolCosteffectivenessAmmoniahasanadvantage,duetolowercostofnitrogenpurificationversusCO₂purificationSafetyRelativelysaferthanhydrogen,butstillpresentschallengesduetotoxicity.Flammabilityisnotanissue.Relativelysaferthanammonia,similartoxicityasdiesel.Flammabilitymaybeanissue.ExistinginfrastructureSimilarbenefitsTechnologyavailabilityAmmoniaenginesexpectedtobecommercialby2025.Dualmethanol–heavyfueloilenginesarealreadycommerciallyavailable.InternationalMaritimeOrganizationapprovalasfuelNotyet.ApprovedNovember2020(ShipInsight,2020).CO₂emissionsZeroemissionsatcombustion;NOXemissionscontrolledwithSCRsystems.CO₂emissionsatcombustion,althoughlowerthanconventionalfuelsandnetzeroifrenewablemethanol;NOXemissionscontrolledwithSCRsystems.Note:SCR=Selectivecatalyticreduction;NOx=nitrogenoxide.RENEWABLEAMMONIA894.5TheammoniasupplychainVariousapplicationsforammoniahavebeenproposed.Below,thetechnologystatusandregulatoryaspectsofapotentialammoniaeconomyarediscussed.Anoverviewofthetechnologystatusforammoniaproductiontechnologies,ammoniatransportandstorage,aswellasammoniautilisationtechnologiesislistedinTable12inAnnexE.Manytechnologiesarealreadycommercialattherequiredscale;however,afewbottleneckscanbeidentified:•GovernmentalincentivestodecreaseCO2emissions.Investmentisdrivenbyclearandconsistentpolicy.Currentmeasuresforgreenhousegasemissionreductionareuncertain,causingdoubtandlimitinginvestment,therebyslowingthelearningcurveofcleantechnologiesanddelayingthetippingpointforcost-competitiverenewableammonia.•Electrolyserproductioncapacity.Theglobalcapacitywasreportedtobe2.1GWperyearin2020(ESMAPandWorldBank,2020),whiletherequiredcapacityisaround40-65GWperyeartoproduce566Mtperyearofrenewableammoniaby2050inthe1.5°Cscenario(Figure29).Scale-upofelectrolyserproductionisexpectedtoacceleratethelearningcurve,therebydecreasingthecostofelectrolysis(Schmidtetal.,2017b).•Ammoniatransportinfrastructure.By2050,theammoniatransportinfrastructuremustincreasebyafactorof10-15,requiringtensofbillionsofUSDinannualinvestmentintheammoniasupplychainforstorageandtransport.Forexample,around235shipswithacapacityof85000cubicmetres(m3)(58ktofammonia)arerequiredby2050toaccommodate354Mtofadditionalammoniashippedaroundtheworld,assumingavoyageeverytwoweeks.ThisimpliesthatashipforammoniatransportmustbebuiltorrevampedfromLPGtransportroughlyeverytwomonthsuntil2050.•Ammonia’sapprovalasamaritimefuelbyinter-governmentalbodies.Untilinter-governmentalbodiesapproveammoniaasamaritimefuel,everyvesselrequiresseparatepermission,therebylimitingbroadadoption.RegulationandcertificationComprehensivelegislationandregulationisrequiredfortheuseofammoniaasafuel.Legislationfortheproduction,storage,transportanduseofammoniaalreadyexistsinvariouseconomiczones(Valera-Medina,IfanandChong,2021),andtheseregulatoryframeworkscanbeadaptedfornewammoniamarkets.Furthermore,legislationforotherfuelscanbeusedasablueprintforammonia.Forexample,limitsarealreadywellestablishedforNOxemissionsfromcombustionoffossilfuels,andtheseshouldnotberelaxedforammonia.However,newlegislationmayberequiredtolimitemissionsofammoniaandnitrousoxide(VanDammeetal.,2018).Thisshouldbesuchthatthereisalevelplayingfieldwithemissionsfromotherfuels,suchasCO2,carbonmonoxideslippage,methaneslippage,SOxandsootformation.Certificationwillbeessentialtoallowmarketparticipantstodistinguishbetweenammoniaproducedfromvarioussourcesandwithdifferentcarbonintensities,aswellastodistinguishbetweenammoniaandotherfuels,asdiscussedinsection3.3.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK904.6OutlookfortheammoniaeconomyAlthoughammoniaisnotusedinenergyapplicationstoday,itisincreasinglylikelythatammoniawillbeoneoftherenewableenergyvectorsofthe21stcentury,especiallyininter-continentaltradeofcarbon-freeenergy.Ammoniacanbeusedasahydrogencarrier,asamaritimefuelandasastationaryfuel.Inthepastfewyears,low-carbonammoniaproductionandutilisationprojectshavebeenannounced,and,especiallysince2020,themomentumhasbeensubstantial,inlinewithcommitmentsinvariouslocationstowardscarbonneutralityby2050.Thedemandforammoniaissettoincreaseto688Mtby2050intheIRENA1.5°Cscenariofromthecurrentdemandofaround183Mt(Figure29),withmorethanhalfthe2050demandcomingfromnewapplicationsforammoniainenergymarkets.Thequestiondoesnotappeartobewhetherammoniawillplayadominantroleinthehydrogeneconomy,butrather,when.InternationalorganisationssuchastheAmmoniaEnergyAssociation,andregionalonesliketheCleanFuelAmmoniaAssociationinJapanandtheGreenAmmoniaAllianceintheRepublicofKorea,bringtogethercompaniesworkingonammoniaproductionandutilisation,governments,andinstitutes,toidentifyknowledgegapsandacceleratethetransitiontowardsdecarbonisation.Localhydrogenandammoniacentresarerequiredtogenerateknowledgealongtheentirevaluechain.Publicperceptioniskeyinasuccessfultransitiontowardsanammoniaeconomy.AstudyontheYucatanPeninsula,Mexicoshowedthatpeopleareopentoammoniaasafuel,aslongasthecostissimilartonaturalgasbutwithbetterenvironmentalperformance,whileanynegativeinitialimpressionofammoniaisduemainlytoalackofinformation,showingtheimportanceofeducationandcommunityengagement(Mercado-GuatiRojoandValera-Medina,2018).Thegeneralperceptionofammoniaismorepositiveinruralareasascomparedtourbanareas,whichmaybeattributedtoahigherfertiliseruseinruralareas.Ammoniastorageindenselypopulatedareasisnotpreferredinanycase,andshouldbeavoidedwherepossible.Increasingly,policymakersareawareofthefeasibilityofammoniaenergy,especiallyinthecontextofthehydrogeneconomyandrenewableenergyimports.Ammoniaisacentralpillarinnationalhydrogenstrategies,andwasdiscussedasamaritimefuelintheUSSenatein2020(Lewis,2020).In2019,theconceptofammoniaenergywasintroducedtoCanadianPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeauandDutchPrimeMinisterMarkRuttebyJaccoMooijer,SalesDirectorofProtonVentures,whopresentedthemwiththecompanymascot,Monia(Image9).Image8JaccoMooijer(right)ofProtonVenturesgivesCanadianPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeau(secondfromleft)andDutchPrimeMinisterMarkRutte(middle)Monia,themascotofProtonVentures,anammoniasolutionsproviderImagecourtesyofAdamScotti,2018.RENEWABLEAMMONIA91Casestudy3DecarbonisedammoniademandandproductionforecastThefuturedemandforammoniaismadeupoftwodistinctmarkets,namelythecurrentmarketsasafertiliserandanindustrialchemical,andfuturemarketsasahydrogencarrierandafuel.Ammoniaproductionanddemand,bothcurrentandprojectedfor2020,2030,and2050,areshownsidebysideinFigure29fortwoscenarios,astatedpoliciesscenarioanda1.5°Cscenario(seeAnnexG),illustratingboththeexpecteddecarbonisationofammoniaproduction,anditsadoptioninenergymarketsinthecomingdecades.The1.5°Cscenarioseesthetotalammoniamarketgrowingto688Mtby2050.Figure29CurrentandprojectedammoniaproductionbysourceanddemandbysectorAmmoniademand(Mt)Ammoniaproduction(Mt)Statedpolicies°CScenarioStatedpolicies°CScenarioStatedpolicies°CScenarioStatedpolicies°CScenarioFossilnoCCSFossilwithCCSRenewableHydrogencarrierPowergeneration(Japan)FertiliserapplicationsOtherexistingusesShippingfuelINNOVATIONOUTLOOK92Thecurrentmarketdemandisaround183Mt,andtheseexistingmarketsareexpectedtogrowatarateof2-3%annually,resultingindemandin2050of334Mtinthe1.5°Cscenario,ofwhich267Mtwillbeforfertiliserapplicationsand67Mtforotherexistingmarkets.Inthe1.5°Cscenario,theexpectedmarketvolumesforammonia’snewapplicationsasahydrogencarrierandasfuelforshippingandpowergenerationgrowfromzerotodaytoacombined15Mtby2030.However,overthecomingtwodecadesthesenewmarketsgrowrapidlyandtheyexceedcurrentmarketvolumesby2050,reachingatotalof354Mtofammonia.Asahydrogencarrier,127Mtofammoniaistradedinternationally,providinghydrogenimportsprimarilyasachemicalfeedstockandindustrialfuel(equivalentto2363petajoules).Asamaritimefuel,197Mtofammoniaisconsumedin2050,with183Mtusedforinternationalshippingand15Mtindomesticshipping.Theuseofammoniaasafuelforpowergenerationisprojectedtoreach30Mtby2050,whichrepresentsthestatedpoliciesofJapanonly(asammoniapowergenerationtechnologiesdevelop,andasothernationsincludeammoniaintheirplans,thisfiguremaygrow).Reflectingtheuncertaintyoffuturepolicyandmarketadoption,projectionsoffuturedemandforammoniainenergyapplicationsvarywidelyamongotherorganisationsandpublications,from140Mttomorethan1000Mt(seeTable13inAnnexF).Theextenttowhichammoniaisimplementedintheseapplicationsdependsstronglyonclimate-drivenregulations,andonchoicesregardingdecarbonisedfeedstock.Theexpectedammoniademandupto2050forthe1.5°CscenarioisshowninFigure30,whilethestatedpoliciesscenarioisshowninFigure37inAnnexG.Theprimarydifferencebetweenthe2050volumesseeninthesescenariosisintheextenttowhichammoniaisadoptedasahydrogencarrierandasafuelforshipping.Bothapplicationsaresignificantinthestatedpoliciesscenario,with2050demandof109Mtasahydrogencarrierand77Mtasashippingfuel,contributingtototaldemandof550Mtofammoniain2050.However,thestatedpoliciesscenarioseesamarketreductionofmorethan130Mtrelativetothe1.5°Cscenariototaldemandof688Mtofammoniain2050.Acomparisonoftheestimatesforammoniauseasashippingfuel,hydrogencarrier,andforpowergenerationareshowninFigure31,Figure32andFigure33.Afargreaterdifferencebetweenthestatedpoliciesscenarioandthe1.5°Cscenariocanbeobservedonthesupplysideofthemarket,reflectingthespeedatwhichammoniaproductioncapacitycanbedecarbonised.Figure30Expectedammoniademandupto2050forthe1.5°CscenarioAmmoniademand(Mt)HydrogencarrierPowergeneration(Japan)FertiliserapplicationsOtherexistingusesShippingRENEWABLEAMMONIA93Figure31Ammoniademandestimatesforuseasmaritimefuelby2050fromvarioussources(seeTable13)Ammoniademandasmaritimefuel(Mt)IRENA°CscenarioIEAEnergyTechnologyPerspectivesIEASustainableDevelopmentScenarioIEANetZeroEmissionsDNVGL(range)GettingtozerocoalitionIMO(decarbonisationby)AmmonFuelIRENAstatedpoliciesZeroCarbonShippingCenterArgusMediaMedianFigure32Ammoniademandestimatespowergenerationby2050fromvarioussources(seeTable13)Ammoniademandforpowergeneration(Mt)IRENA(Japanonly)CleanFuelAmmoniaAssociation(Japan)TheInstituteofEnergyEconomics(Japan)ArgusMediaIEASustainableDevelopmentScenarioIEANETZeroEmissionsMedianNote:TheIRENAdemandforpowergenerationisbasedonthestatedpolicyoftheCleanFuelAmmoniaAssociation.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK94Additionalammoniaproductionisrequiredtomeettheaddeddemand.Ammoniaforenergyapplicationsshouldnotputfertilisersupply,andthusfoodproduction,atrisk.Currently,thereisaround40-60Mtperyearofovercapacity,ensuringthenear-termavailabilityofsufficientammoniaifnewmarketsdevelop(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020;Hatfield,2020).Furthermore,low-carbonammoniaproductionpathwaysmustbeadoptedtodecreasethecarbonfootprintofammonia,forenergyapplicationsandalsoforcurrentmarkets.Theannounced2030capacityofproposedlow-carbonfossil-basedandrenewableammoniaplantsalreadyexceeds10%oftotalglobalammoniaproduction(seesections2.3and2.4).By2050,ina1.5°Cscenario,renewableammoniaproductionlevelsmustrisetoanestimated566Mtperyear,morethan80%ofthetotalglobalmarketof688Mtofammonia.Whilemostofthisammoniasupplywillcomefromelectrolysis-basedproduction,additionalsupplyfrombiomass-basedproductionassumesatransitionwhereurearemainsadominantfertiliser.Fossil-basedammoniaproductionshrinksfrom183Mtin2020to122Mtin2050,ofwhich71MtincludesCCSandonly51MtdoesnotincludeCCS.Figure33Ammoniademandestimatesforuseashydrogencarrierby2050fromvarioussources(seeTable13)Ammoniademandashydrogencarrier(Mt)ArgusMediaMedianIRENA°CscenarioIRENAstatedpoliciesRENEWABLEAMMONIA95Theexpectedammoniasupplyupto2050forthe1.5°CscenarioisshowninFigure34,whilethestatedpoliciesscenarioisshowninFigure38inAnnexG.Inthestatedpoliciesscenario,incontrasttothe1.5°Cscenario,conventionalfossil-basedammoniaproductiondoubles,reaching333Mtoffossil-basedammoniawithnoemissionsmitigation,andanadditional159Mtoffossil-basedammoniawithCCS,foratotalof492Mtoffossil-basedammonia.Inthestatedpoliciesscenario,only58Mtofammonia,lessthan10%ofthemarket,wouldberenewableby2050.Thedifferencebetweenthe1.5°Cscenarioandthestatedpoliciesscenarioillustratesstarklythegapbetweenclimateambitionsandthepoliciesthatstillneedtobeenactedinordertoreachthem.Thecombinedcapacityofalltherenewableammoniaprojectsannouncedsofarisaround15Mtperyearby2030andaround71Mtperyearby2040(Table2),relyingsolelyonelectrolysis,whichalreadyrelatestomorethan10%oftheestimated566Mtofdemandinthe1.5°Cscenario.Eventhoughitisunlikelythatallannouncedrenewableammoniaprojectswillmaterialise,thereissubstantialmomentumwithmultiplelarge-scaleprojectsannouncedoverthepastfewmonths.Forreference,before2020,thetotalannouncedrenewableammoniaproductionwasbelow0.1Mtperyear.Figure34Expectedammoniaproductionbyfeedstockupto2050forthe1.5°CscenarioAmmoniaproduction(Mt)FossilnoCCSFossilwithCCSRenewablesINNOVATIONOUTLOOK965.POTENTIALANDBARRIERSKeyfindingsRenewableammoniacandecarboniseexistingammoniamarketsanddisplacefossilfuelsinnewenergymarkets.•Thegreeningoftheindustrialsector,especiallythechemicalandfertiliserindustries,shouldbetheinitialtargetapplicationforrenewableammonia,especiallyforretrofitsofexistingammoniaplants.•Thestationarypowersectorisalsoexpectedtouseammoniaasafuel,withlong-termpurchasecommitmentsde-riskinginvestments.WhilethisiscurrentlydrivenbydemandfromJapan,othercountriesmayadoptthisoptionastechnologiesmature.•Themaritimesectorislikelytobeasignificantdriverforrenewableammoniaand,duetothevolumesrequired,islikelytobemostrelevantfornew-buildprojectsatamulti-gigawattscale.•Ammoniaasahydrogencarriercanprovidefeedstockforindustryandenablehydrogenimportswithalowercostthanlocalrenewablehydrogen.Again,duetothevolumesrequired,thismarketislikelytobemostrelevantfornew-buildprojectsatamulti-gigawattscale.•Inthelongterm,renewableammoniaislikelytobecomethemaincommodityfortransportingrenewableenergybetweencontinents.Renewableammoniacanhaveasignificantimpactontheenergysector.•Boththeproductionanduseofelectro-fuelshelptostabilisethehigh-renewablegrid.•Renewableammoniaproductionconsumespowerwhentheelectricitysupplyishigherthandemand,andprovidesfuelforpowergenerationwhenthesupplyislowerthandemand.•Areadymarketfortransportableelectro-fuelswillspurthedevelopmentofmulti-gigawattrenewableenergyassetsthatarecurrentlytoobigfortheirgrid-constrainedmarkets,especiallyinremoteandsparselypopulatedareas.Urearepresentsaspecialcase,withitsownchallengesandopportunities.•55%ofallammoniaworldwideisusedfortheproductionofurea,whichalsorequiresCO2,currentlysuppliedasby-productoffossil-basedhydrogenproduction.•Inanintegratedammonia-ureaplant,therefore,fossil-basedammoniacannotsimplybesubstitutedwithrenewableammonia,becausenewsourcesofCO2wouldberequired.RENEWABLEAMMONIA97•Ontheotherhand,abiomass-to-ammoniaprocesswouldproducemoreCO2thanisrequiredforureaproduction,creatinganopportunitytocombineureaproductionandCCS.•Thiswouldbeascalablepathwayforbioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS),producingcarbon-negativeurea.•Policies,regulationsandmandatesmustbeusedtoinducedemand.Themainbarrierstorenewableammoniaarethesameasforothercarbon-freefuelsandfeedstocks:thecostofproductionandtheabsenceofregulationsonCO2emissions.•ACO2penaltyofaroundUSD60-90pertonneofCO2mayberequiredtotransitiontowardslow-carbonammonia.Strong,stableandsustainedpoliciesareessential,astheinvestmentinlong-lived,capital-intensiverenewabletechnologiescannotdisseminateinthemarketwithoutconfidence.Thisreportconcludeswiththefollowingrecommendations:•PutasufficientlyhighpriceonCO2emissions.•Translatepoliticalwillintopolicies.•Focusondeploymentofexistingrenewableammoniatechnologies.•Supportthedevelopmentofentiresupplychains.•Devisetradestrategiesthatmitigatesupplyrisks.•Investinelectrolysermanufacturing.•De-riskearlyinvestmentprojects.•Retrofittechnologytowardsrenewableammoniaproduction.•Supportthedemand-sidephase-outoffossilfuels.•Re-assesstheroleofammoniainhydrogenstrategies.5.1DemandAmmoniahastheidenticalchemicalstructure,NH3,whetheritisproducedfromfossilorrenewablesources.Assuch,renewableammoniaisadirectsubstituteforfossilammoniainmostofitscurrentuses.Annualammoniaproductionisexpectedtogrowfromitscurrent183Mttomorethan200Mtby2025(dePeeetal.,2018).Withitsadoptioninenergyapplications,thetotalannualdemandforammoniaisexpectedtoreach688Mtby2050ina1.5°Cscenario(Figure29),ofwhich566Mt,ormorethan80%,isexpectedtoberenewableammonia.Already,thecombinedcapacityofannouncedrenewableammoniaplantswillbe15Mtby2030(Table2).INNOVATIONOUTLOOK98However,urea,whichaccountsforaround55%ofcurrentammoniademand,requiresbothammoniaandCO2,whichiscurrentlysuppliedasaby-productoffossil-basedhydrogenproductioninanintegratedammonia-ureaplant.Assuch,fossil-basedammoniaforureaproductioncannotsimplybesubstitutedwithrenewableammoniausingelectrolysers.Circularcarbonsourceswillneedtobeutilised,suchasbiomassordirectaircapture,andashiftawayfromureatowardsnitratesmaybeexpected.Notably,abiomass-to-ureaprocesswouldproducemoreCO2thanisrequiredforureaproduction,creatinganopportunityforscalablebioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS)andcarbon-negativeammoniaandfertilisers.Theintroductionofrenewableammoniawouldfacilitatethetransitiontoasustainablecirculareconomyinthechemical,power,transportandotherenergy-relatedsectors.Energymarketswillbesuppliedwithrenewableammoniafromareaswithlow-costsolarandwind.Ammoniaforenergy-relatedapplicationsmustbedecarbonisedinordertooffermeaningfulbenefitsintermsofitscarbonfootprintascomparedtofossilfuels(Al-Aboosietal.,2021).Aswithanyotherlow-carbonfuelorchemicalfeedstock,demandforrenewableammoniamustbestimulatedbyadequatepolicies,regulationsandmandates.Forexample,theRenewableEnergyDirectiveII(REDII)intheEUmandatesthat14%oftheenergyusedintransportshouldcomefromrenewablesourcesby2030.Themarketforrenewableammoniainthetransportsectorisfocusedoninternationalshipping,withestimateddemandof197Mtby2050ina1.5°Cscenario.Inthechemicalandindustrialsectors,ammoniaasahydrogencarrierisexpectedtoenablelow-costhydrogenimportsforfuelandfeedstock,meetingdemandof127Mtby2050ina1.5°Cscenario.Furthermore,renewableammoniawillfindapplicationsforstationarypower,startinginJapan.By2030,around3-5Mtperyearwillbeusedforstationarypowergenerationingasturbinesandcoal-firedpowerplantsinJapan,withdemandrisingto30Mtby2050.Ammoniamayalsobeusedasstationaryfuelin,forexample,EuropeandNorthAmerica,asammoniaoffersanalternativetonaturalgasforpeakerplantsforfulldecarbonisationoftheelectricitygrid(PalysandDaoutidis,2020).Currently,hydrogenisconsideredforsuchapplications,althoughduetothestoragechallengesofhydrogen,thisislikelylimitedtolocationswithsaltcaverns.5.2SustainableproductionElectrolysisElectrolysis-basedhydrogenproductionwithsolarandwindenergywillplayadominantroleindecarbonisingammoniaproduction.Variousworld-scalerenewableammoniaplantshavealreadybeenannounced,startingoperationatthegigawattscalearound2025.CommercialdemonstrationatasmallerscalebecameoperationalinPuertollano(Spain)in2021(Atchison,2022b).Alkalineelectrolysershavebeencommercialonthe150MWscaleforacentury(Ernst,1928),andnowothertechnologiesarebeingscaledup,includingPEMandsolidoxide.BothalkalineandPEMelectrolysisarecurrentlyavailableatthemegawattscale,whileasimilarscaleofsolidoxideelectrolysisisexpectedtobeavailableby2023(Frøhlke,2021b).Thepotentialforelectrolysis-basedrenewableammoniawilldependmainlyonfurtherreductionsinthecostofrenewablepower,reductionsinthecapitalcostofelectrolysers,andgainsinefficiencyanddurability.RENEWABLEAMMONIA99BiomassBiomasscanalsobeusedtoproducehydrogenaswellasbiogenicCO2.However,biomassisnotexpectedtoplayadominantroleindecarbonisingammoniaproduction,duetothelimitedavailabilityoflow-costbiomass,whichmayberequiredasfeedstockforotherchemicals(Sociaal-EconomischeRaad,2020).Biomassmayplayaroleindecarbonising10-20%ofexistingfossil-basedammonia-ureaplants,andforlocalproductioninareaswithverylowbiomasscost.5.3ImpactofrenewableammoniaontheenergysectorTheprogressindecarbonisationoftheenergy,industryandchemicalsectorsandtheirassociatedelectrificationthroughtheuseofrenewableenergysourcesislikelytohavesignificantconsequencesinthepowersector,consideringtheintermittencyofrenewablesourcessuchaswindandsolar.Theproductionanduseofelectro-fuelssuchasrenewableammoniacanprovideanoutletforrenewablepowerandsupportgridstabilisation,dependingonthenatureofimbalancesbetweensupplyanddemand.Putdifferently,renewablepowercanbeusedtoproducerenewablefuelswhenthesupplyishigherthanthedemand,and,conversely,renewablefuelscanbeusedtogeneratepowerwhenthesupplyislowerthanthedemand.Beyondtheexistinggrid,however,anoperationalmarketfortransportableelectro-fuelswillspurthedevelopmentofsignificantrenewableenergyassetsthatarecurrentlytoobigfortheirgrid-constrainedmarkets,especiallyinremoteandsparselypopulatedareas.5.4DriversAsmentionedpreviously,uptakeofrenewableammoniaisdrivenmainlybytheneedtodecarbonisesocietyandshiftawayfromfossilfuels.Intheongoingenergytransitionofend-usesectors,renewableammoniahasasubstantialpotentialtoactasanenergyvectortomitigateandeventuallyeliminatethecarbonfootprintofthechemicalproductionindustryandenergysectors.Inthelongterm,renewableammoniacanbefacilitatedasthemaincommodityfortransportingrenewableenergybetweencontinents.However,adequatepolicyframeworks,regulationsandsubsidiesareneededtostimulatetheproductionandconsumptionofrenewablefuels.TheEU’sEnergyRoadmapcallsfor80-95%reductionsingreenhousegasemissionsby2050(EuropeanCommission,2012).Thiswillrequireacompletetransformationoftheenergysector,witharoundtwo-thirdsofenergycomingfromrenewablesources.Asimilartransitionwillberequiredintherestoftheworldtoensureasecure,competitiveandsustainableenergysysteminthelongterm(IRENA,2019).AccordingtoIRENA,70%oftheworld’senergy-relatedCO2emissionsmustbecutby2050(IRENA,2020a).Thisisanopportunityforthedevelopmentofcost-competitiverenewableammoniaaspartofthesolution.Fossil-basedammoniahasbeenavailableonthemarketasacommoditychemicalforalongperiodoftime.Renewableammoniacouldsubstitutefossil-basedammoniainmostapplications,giventhatrenewableammoniaandlower-carbonfossil-basedammoniaareidealrawmaterialsforthechemicalindustryandthefertiliserindustry,andpotentiallyasfuel.Thefollowingaresomeofthemostimportantdriversforthedevelopmentoftherenewableammoniamarket:•Renewableammoniacanbeusedasfeedstockinawiderangeofapplicationsinthechemicalindustry.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK100•Itcanbeproducedvialow-carbonemissionproductionroutes.•Renewableammoniaisaliquidenergystoragemediumthatiseasytostoreandtransport.•Itrequiresanuncomplicatedproductionroutethatusesabundantatmosphericnitrogenandrenewableelectrolysisbasedonhydrogen.•Itiscompatiblewithexistingdistributioninfrastructureandcanbeblendedwithconventionalfuels,leadingtoareductioninotherharmfulemissions(SOx,particulatematter,etc.).Decarbonisationoftheindustrialsector,especiallythechemicalandfertiliserindustries,shouldbetheinitialtargetapplicationforrenewableammonia,especiallyforretrofitsofexistingammoniaplants.Renewableammoniacanbeafeedstockforexistingproductscurrentlyobtainedfromfossil-basedammonia,althoughinsomecasesCO2mayberequiredasadditionalfeedstock.Themaritimesectorisalsolikelytobeasignificantdriverforexpandingtheproductioncapacityofrenewableammonia,duetomandatesandlegislationbeingputinplacebyregulatorstoreducegreenhousegasemissions.Becauseofthevolumesrequiredtodelivermeaningfuldecarbonisationacrossthesector,thisapplicationislikelytobemostrelevantfornew-buildprojectsatamulti-gigawattscale.Thestationarypowersectorisalsoexpectedtouseammoniaasafuel,ledbyJapan.Thisisanimportantdriverforrenewableammonia,aslong-termpurchasecommitmentsareagreeduponbetweenproducersandoff-takersforpowergeneration,de-riskinginvestments(Kumagai,2021;Yara,2021).Islandedlocationswhererenewableenergycanbeproducedatacomparablylowercost,andwherefuelimportsarecostly,couldalsobegoodcandidatesfortheproductionofrenewableammoniaatasmallerscale.Finally,ammoniacanbeahydrogencarrier,providingfeedstockforthechemicalindustryandenablinghydrogenimports.Importedrenewableammoniamayhavealowerdeliveredcostofhydrogenthanlocalrenewablehydrogenproductionin,forexample,NorthernEuropeandJapan(Atchison,2021b;IEA,2019a).Thepotentialuseofrenewableammoniaasagloballytradedenergycommoditysupportsmassiveexport-scalerenewableenergydevelopment,especiallyfromcoastaldesertswheretheavailabilityofinexpensivebutstrandedrenewablepowerisaninherentdriverforrenewableammonia.Thisalsogeneratessustainedjobsinsuchareas.Productionofrenewableammoniacouldalsopromptglobaltradeopportunitiesbetweenrenewableenergy-richregionssuchasNorthAfrica,theMiddleEast,Oceania,andSouthAmerica,andenergy-importingregionssuchasAsiaandEurope.Politicalstabilityandwillingnesstoco-operateisrequiredforammoniaoff-takeagreementsbetweencountries.5.5BarriersThehighcostofproductionandtheabsenceofstrongregulationsonCO2emissionshampersthedevelopmentofarenewableammoniamarket,asitisthecaseforotherrenewableandcarbon-freefuelsorfeedstocks.Adequateregulatoryframeworkandpolicesareessentialtokickstartandsustainthemassdeploymentofrenewableammoniainthemarket.SubstantivegovernmentalincentivesarerequiredtodecreaseCO2emissions.ACO2penaltyofanestimatedUSD60-90pertonneofCO2isrequiredtotransitiontowardslow-carbonammoniaforcurrentammoniasynthesisinfrastructure(Figure14).CurrentCO2penaltiesvarywidelybycountry.Furthermore,costsaretypicallybelowUSD60pertonneofCO2outsidetheEU,andfluctuating.Investmentisdrivenbyclearpolicytrends.RENEWABLEAMMONIA101Withoutapriceoncarbon,thecostofrenewableammoniamustdecreaseinordertobecompetitiveontheglobalmarket.Renewableenergyaccountsformorethanhalfthecostofammonia,and,tobecompetitive,renewableenergypricesofUSD20perMWhandbelowarerequired.Suchpricesarealreadyachievableinafewlocationsandwillbecomemorewidespreadbeyond2030(IRENA,2021a;Tancock,2020).Inthelongterm,new-buildrenewableammoniaplantsareexpectedtoproduceammoniaatlessthanUSD400pertonneinmostplaces,andlessthanUSD350pertonneinthemostsuitablelocations.Uncertaintyinpolicyandtechnologyimpliesahighweightedaveragecapitalcost(WACC),resultinginahighlevelisedcostofrenewableammonia.Thisisespeciallytruebecauserenewableammoniaproductionrequireshighupfrontcapitalinvestment.TechnologydemonstrationscandecreasetheWACC(IEA,2019b).Theoperatingcostofrenewableammoniaplantsislow,resultinginalowcashcostofammoniaproductionforexistingfacilities.Currently,around25-30Mtofammoniaistransportedannuallyacrosslandandsea.However,newenergy-relatedmarketsmayrequiregreatlyexpandedammoniainfrastructure,capableoftransportingaround300Mtperyear.Thereisnotechnologicallimitationtothescale-upofammoniainfrastructure,whichisafunctionofdemand.However,co-ordinatedpoliciesandinvestmentsupportacrossregionsandacrosssectorswillbeadvantageous.Ammoniaiscurrentlynotapprovedasafuelbyvariousregulators,includingtheIMOandmanypowersectorauthorities.Operationalexperienceisrequiredtoestablishprotocolsforsafehandling.Productstandardsarerequiredtoestablishsafepuritylevelsacrossmultipleapplications.Emissiontestingandverificationisrequiredtoensurethatammoniacombustiondoesnotexceedacceptableemissionlevelsacrossarangeofpollutants.Theseactionsmustbecompletedbeforeitispossibletohavebroadregulatoryapprovalofammoniaasafuel.Inthemeantime,useofammoniaasafuelwillbelimitedtodemonstrationsandpilots.Someresearchgapsexist,suchasthelowburningvelocitiescomparedwithconventionalfuels,higherenergydemandforignition,andthepotentialofhighNOXemissionsfromcombustion(Elishavetal.,2020;Kobayashietal.,2019;Valera-Medinaetal.,2018).5.6PoliciesandrecommendationsSettingouttheappropriatepolicyframeworksandsupportmechanismsiscrucialtoreachingthegoalsofcarbonemissionmitigation,sustainabilityandenergysecurity.Adequateinvestmentinenduringandcapital-intensiverenewableenergytechnologiesisnotlikelytoemergewithoutgivingconfidencetoinvestorsthroughstrong,predictable,forward-lookinganddecisivepolicies.PutasufficientlyhighpriceonCO2emissionsACO2penaltyofaroundUSD60-90pertonneofCO2isrequiredtobridgethegapbetweenfossil-basedammoniawithunmitigatedemissionsandfossil-basedammoniawithCCS.ACO2penaltyofuptoUSD150pertonneofCO2wouldbridgethegapbetweenfossil-basedandrenewableammonia(seesection2.3).Inthelongterm,renewableammoniaisexpectedtobecostcompetitivewithfossil-basedammoniawithCCS.Thus,CCScanplayaroleindecarbonisingcurrentammoniafacilities,butnewlybuiltfossil-basedammoniaplantswithCCSmayresultinstrandedassetsinthelongterm,unlesssupportedbyverylownaturalgasprices.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK102TranslatepoliticalwillintopoliciesWithorwithoutapriceonCO2emissions,strong,stableandsustainedregulatorymeasuresforfuelstandardsandrenewablequotasormandateswillfacilitatepriceincentivestoprovidestabilityofsustainedgrowthandinvestment.Thesecanbesupportedbyrobustcertificationthatcanaccountforthecarbonintensityofammonia.Suitablepolicyinstrumentsareparamounttoensureequitabletaxtreatmentandalong-termguaranteedpricefloorforwideradoptionofrenewableammoniaandotherpromisingsustainablefuels.Whileenergytaxreductioncanbeprovidedforrenewablefuels,includingrenewableammonia,fuelexciseandothertaxesshouldbebasedonenergycontentandnotvolume(e.g.USDperkilowatt-hour[kWh],notUSDperlitre).Forexample,acontractfordifference(CfD)schemeinwhichadvancedrenewablefuelproductionprojectsbidforCfDs,andthewinnersareawardedtheminso-calledreverseauctions(lowestbidwins)isanappropriatetaxationpolicythatcan“makeorbreak”alternativefuels;thiscouldmotivateinvestmentsasameaningfulproductionsupportsystem.Moderatecarbontaxationlevelscanbeobtainedviaearmarkandreturnprinciples.FocusondeploymentofexistingrenewableammoniatechnologiesThecurrentfocusshouldbeonimplementingexistingtechnologiesatscaleratherthandevelopingnew,breakthroughtechnologies.Thelatterisnotnecessarilyrequired,asmostelementsintherenewableammoniavaluechainhavealreadybeendemonstrated.Rather,combinationsoftechnologiesshouldbedemonstratedatrelevantscaleandunderrelevantconditions,whichisthebreakthroughrequired.Thisconcernsinnovationssuchasimprovingtheflexibilityoftheammoniasynthesisloop,improvingtheperformanceoftheelectrolyser,improvingtheperformanceofammoniacrackersanddrivingdownthecostsoftoday’stechnologies.Near-termmarketcreationthroughthedeploymentofexistingtechnologieswillaccelerateinnovationinthelongerterm.SupportthedevelopmentofentiresupplychainsFundingprogrammesshouldextendtheirscopetoincludeammoniaandotherhydrogencarriers.Programmesthatfocusonasingletechnology(e.g.hydrogenorsolarpanels)tendtosupportearly-stageR&Dandpilotprojects.However,broaderfundingprogrammesthatfocusonapplicationsforthesetechnologies(e.g.electro-fuels,energystorage)supportdeploymentbyconnectingthevaluechainacrossproduction,distributionanduse.Programmesmayalsowishtoallowforeignparticipation,tosupportdevelopmentofglobalsupplychains,recognisingthatdemandmaynotbemetbydomesticproduction.DevisetradestrategiesthatmitigatesupplyrisksTocreatejobsandencouragecompetitivenewindustriesforrenewableammoniainbothproducingandconsumingregions,internationalco-operationmustbefostered–forexample,betweenprojectdevelopers,ammoniausersandammoniaproductioncompanies.Increasingtheinvestmentsinrenewableammoniaproductioncapacitycouldbroadentheenergyandfeedstocksupplyrangeandminimisepoliticalrisks.InvestinelectrolysermanufacturingSubstantialscale-upofelectrolyserfactoriesisrequired.Thereportedelectrolyserproductioncapacityin2020wasonly2.1GWperyear(ESMAPandWorldBank,2020),but40-65GWperyearwillberequiredtosupplythevolumeofhydrogenneededfordecarbonisingthefertiliser,powerandmaritimesectorswithrenewableammonia.Thus,multiplegigawatt-scaleelectrolyserfactorieswillberequired.Thedevelopmentofsuchlarge-scalefactorieswillinherentlydecreasethecostofelectrolyserproductionduetoanacceleratedlearningcurveandeconomiesofscale,whichwillinturnmakerenewableammoniamorecompetitivewithfossil-basedalternatives.RENEWABLEAMMONIA103De-riskearlyinvestmentprojectsGovernmentscanhelptode-riskthebillionsofUSDininvestmentoffirstmoversseekingtobuildgigawatt-scalerenewableammoniaplants.Forinstance,grants,investments,loansandloanguaranteescande-riskpartoftheCAPEXsideoftheinvestment.OntheOPEXside,investmentscanbede-riskedwithcontractsfordifference(CfD)orgreenpremiums,renewablemandates,procurementcontractsandoff-takeguarantees,oranintermediatesecuredbuyerofauctionedprojects.Noconventionalfossil-basedammoniaplantfinancesitsownnaturalgasextractionandpipelinesupply;however,mostgigawatt-scalerenewableammoniaplantsdotheequivalent,bydevelopingfullrenewableelectricitygenerationassets.ThismeansthatwhiletheCAPEXforrenewableammoniaishigher,theOPEXcanbemuchlowerthanforfossil-basedammonia.Oncearenewableammoniaplanthasbeendepreciated,itsoperatingexpenses,orcashcost,willbelow.Thismakesrenewableammoniacompetitive,bothonthechemicalcommoditymarketandasanalternativetofossilfuelsinenergymarkets.Alternatively,aseparatelyfinancedwindandsolarprojectcanprovideelectricitytoarenewableammoniaplantviaalong-termpowerpurchaseagreement(PPA).RetrofittechnologytowardsrenewableammoniaproductionAmmoniaplantsthatdonotcurrentlyproduceureacanbedecarbonisedwithoutdelay,eitherbyintegratingCCS,byretrofittingeSMRtechnologyorbyreplacingfossilfeedstockwithrenewablehydrogen.Thisrepresentsaround80Mtperyearofexistingammoniacapacity,whichcanberegardedaslow-hangingfruittodecarbonise,withacostgapofUSD60-150pertonneofCO2(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020;SayginandGielen,2021).Supportthedemand-sidephase-outoffossilfuelsGovernmentalandregulatoryincentivesshouldbeprovidedtoexistingfossil-basedassetstoacceleratethetransitiontorenewables.Thispreventslocked-inCO2emissionsfromcontinuedoperations,reducesdemandforongoingfossilfueldiscoveryandextraction,andreducesthelikelihoodofstrandedassets.Retrofittingexistingassetsmayoftenbemorecosteffectivethanbuildingnewassets,especiallyduringtheinitialscale-upphase.Thisisalsovalidforammoniautilisationtechnology.Forboththepowersectorandmaritimesector,currenttechnologycanoftenberetrofittedtooperateonammoniafuelatalowercostthanbuildingnewtechnology.Inthemaritimesector,ammoniatankerscanbeconvertedtouseammoniaasafuelfirst,intheknowledgethatfuelavailabilitywillnotbeanissueforthisvesseltypeatanyport.Vesselconversionswillberequiredthisdecade,asshipstypicallyhavealifetimeof20-25years.Tocomplywiththe1.5°Cscenario,anestimated5%ofthemaritimefuelmixshouldbezero-carbonfuelsby2030(Osterkamp,SmithandSøgaard,2021).TheammoniaandLPGgascarriersegmentoftheglobalfleetrepresentsroughly2%ofmaritimefuelconsumption.Re-assesstheroleofammoniainhydrogenstrategiesMosthydrogenstrategiesconsiderammoniaonlyasaconsumerofhydrogen,inthecontextoffertiliserproduction,andomitconsiderationofitspotentialrolesasafuelandhydrogencarrier.Inlocationswhereammoniawillbeimportedasahydrogencarrier,ammoniashouldbeutiliseddirectlywherepossible,ratherthanusinghydrogenobtainedfromthedecompositionofammonia.Ammoniamaybethemostcost-effectivevectorforlarge-scalehydrogenimports,butitscost-effectivenessincreaseswithdirectuse.Noveltechnologiestouseammoniaincentralisedanddecentralisedpowergeneration,aswellastransportapplications,areapproachingcommercialisationandmayofferanopportunitytore-assesstherolesofhydrogenandammoniainthecontextofanationalhydrogenstrategy.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK104REFERENCESABS(2021a),JointStudytoExplorethePotentialforAmmoniaasaMarineFuelinSingapore,AmericanBureauofShipping,Houston,https://news.cision.com/american-bureau-of-shipping/r/joint-study-to-explore-the-potential-for-ammonia-as-a-marine-fuel-in-singapore,c3273423(accessed1June2021).ABS(2021b),AmmoniaasMarineFuel,AmericanBureauofShipping,Houston,https://safety4sea.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Ammonia_as_Marine_Fuel_Whitepaper_20188.pdf.Acker,M.(2021),“Pipelinetransportationofammonia–helpingtobridgethegaptoacarbonfreefuture”,AmmoniaEnergyConference2021,Boston,www.ammoniaenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/AEA-Ammonia-Pipeline-Transportation-MEA-11-4-2021.pdf.Adair,B.(2020),“Lowcarbonammoniacertification”,AmmoniaEnergyConference2020,17-20November,www.ammoniaenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Blake-Adair.pdf.ADNOC(24May2021),“ADNOCtobuildworld-scaleblueammoniaproject”,https://adnoc.ae/en/news-and-media/press-releases/2021/adnoc-to-build-world-scale-blue-ammonia-project.Afif,A.etal.(2016),“Ammonia-fedfuelcells:Acomprehensivereview”,RenewableandSustainableEnergyReviews,Vol.60,Elsevier,Amsterdam,pp.822-835,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.01.120.Ahlgren,S.etal.(2008),“Ammoniumnitratefertiliserproductionbasedonbiomass–environmentaleffectsfromalifecycleperspective”,BioresourceTechnology,Vol.99/17,Elsevier,Amsterdam,pp.8034-8041,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biortech.2008.03.041.Ahluwalia,R.K.etal.(2019),“Systemlevelanalysisofhydrogenstorageoptions”,2019AnnualMeritReviewandPeerEvaluationMeeting,Washington,DC,pp.1-42,www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/review19/st001_ahluwalia_2019_o.pdf.Akbari,M.,A.O.OyedunandA.Kumar(2018),“Ammoniaproductionfromblackliquorgasificationandco-gasificationwithpulpandwastesludges:Atechno-economicassessment”,Energy,Vol.151,Elsevier,Amsterdam,pp.133-143,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.03.056.Al-Aboosi,F.Y.etal.(2021),“Renewableammoniaasanalternativefuelfortheshippingindustry”,CurrentOpinioninChemicalEngineering,Vol.31,Elsevier,Amsterdam,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coche.2021.100670.Al-Breiki,M.andY.Bicer(2021),“Comparativelifecycleassessmentofsustainableenergycarriersincludingproduction,storage,overseastransportandutilization”,JournalofCleanerProduction,Vol.279,Elsevier,Amsterdam,p.123481,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123481.AmmPower(2021),“AmmPowerCorp.SignsMoUtoprovidegreenammoniaenergysolutionstoPortoCentralinBrazil,Brazil’snewestdeep-waterport,locatedinthesouthofStateofEspíritoSantonearstateborderwithRiodeJaneiro”,https://ammpower.com/ammpower-corp-signs-mou-to-provide-green-ammonia-energy-solutions-to-porto-central-in-brazil-brazils-newest-deep-water-port-located-in-the-south-of-state-of-espirito-santo-near-state-borde(accessed2September2021).Andersen,S.Z.etal.(2019),“Arigorouselectrochemicalammoniasynthesisprotocolwithquantitativeisotopemeasurements”,Nature,Vol.570,Springer,Berlin,pp.504-508,https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1260-x.RENEWABLEAMMONIA105Anderson,K.(2017),“Ammoniasafety,aglobalperspective”,presentedatTechnionAmmoniaConference,Haifa,15November,https://chemeng.technion.ac.il/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/M.-Kent-Anderson.pdf.Appl,M.(2011),“Ammonia,1.Introduction”,Ullmann’sEncyclopediaofIndustrialChemistry.Appl,M.(1999),Ammonia:PrinciplesandIndustrialPractice,1sted.,Wiley-VCHVerlagGmbH,Weinheim.ARENA(10October2019),“RenewablefuturebeckonsforQueenslandammoniaplants”,ARENAWIRE,https://arena.gov.au/blog/renewable-future-beckons-for-queensland-ammonia-plants.ArgusMedia(2021a),“ChinaETS:Emissionsprices,volumeshitnewrecordlow”,www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2250672-china-ets-emissions-prices-volumes-hit-new-record-low(accessed7October2021).ArgusMedia(2021b),“JapanesepartnersstudyIndonesianblueammoniaoutput”,www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2197536-japanese-partners-study-indonesian-blue-ammonia-output(accessed26March2021).ArgusMedia(2021c),“Japanammoniafueldemandtohit5mnt/yrin2030:CFAA”,www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2193986-japan-ammonia-fuel-demand-to-hit-5mn-tyr-in-2030-cfaa(accessed11March2021).ArgusMedia(2021d),“JapanlookstoUS,Australiaforammoniasupplychain”,www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2194454-japan-looks-to-us-australia-for-ammonia-supply-chain(accessed11March2021).ArgusMedia(2021e),ARGUSGreenAmmoniaStrategyReport,www.argusmedia.com/en/fertilizer/argus-green-ammonia.ArgusMedia(2020),“Greenshifttocreate1billiontonne‘greenammonia’market?”view.argusmedia.com/rs/584-BUW-606/images/Argus%20White%20Paper%20-%20Green%20Ammonia.pdf.ArgusMedia(2019),“Yuzhnyammoniaexportersnavigatebearishmarket”,www.argusmedia.com/-/media/Files/white-papers/2019/argus-white-paper-yuzhny-ammonia-exporters-navigate-bear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uncil,2021)(A)Fromrawmaterialextractionuntilusephase;nocorrectionneeded.(B)Fromrawmaterialextractionuntilammoniaproductiongate;addmaximum10gramsofCO₂-equivalentperMJfortransportanddistributionofammonia(Al-BreikiandBicer,2021).RawmaterialtofinalusegreenhousegasemissionsingramsofCO₂-equivalentperMJcalculatedfromtheoriginalsystemboundary.ThevaluesfortheCO₂-equivalentemissionsfromDufouretal.(2009)andHydrogenCouncil(2021)arerecalculatedtoammoniasynthesisfromhydrogensynthesis.Note:ATR=autothermalreforming;SMR=steammethanereforming;ASU=airseparationunit;PSA=pressureswingadsorption.RENEWABLEAMMONIA131FeedstockOriginalsystemboundariesRawmaterialtofinaluseGHGemittedingCO2-eq/MJSourceResourcetype:Lower-carbonfossilfuel-basedNaturalgas,SMRwithCCS(Norway,2030)B12.5(HydrogenCouncil,2021)Naturalgas,SMRwithCCS(Norway,2050)B12.5(HydrogenCouncil,2021)Naturalgas,ATRwithCCS(Norway,2030)B10.0(HydrogenCouncil,2021)Naturalgas,ATRwithCCS(Norway,2050)B6.7(HydrogenCouncil,2021)CoalgasificationwithCCSB36.1(Singh,DincerandRosen,2018)CoalgasificationwithCCS(China,2030)B76.7(HydrogenCouncil,2021)CoalgasificationwithCCS(China,2050)B65.9(HydrogenCouncil,2021)CoalgasificationwithCCS(Australia,2030)B29.2(HydrogenCouncil,2021)CoalgasificationwithCCS(Australia,2050)B25.8(HydrogenCouncil,2021)Hydrogenfromethanecracker,nitrogenfromASUB92.8(Liu,ElgowainyandWang,2020)Hydrogenfromethanecracker,nitrogenfromPSAB97.6(Liu,ElgowainyandWang,2020)Hydrogenfromchloralkali,nitrogenfromASUB19.8(Liu,ElgowainyandWang,2020)Hydrogenfromchloralkali,nitrogenfromPSAB24.1(Liu,ElgowainyandWang,2020)MethanepyrolysisB33.8(Dufouretal.,2009)MethanepyrolysisB19.9(Dufouretal.,2009)MethanepyrolysisB37.6(Dufouretal.,2009)Resourcetype:Power-basedRenewablehydrogen(2030)A10.2(HydrogenCouncil,2021)Renewablehydrogen(2050)A4.8(HydrogenCouncil,2021)Electrolysis-basedhydrogenA18.8(Smith,HillandTorrente-Murciano,2020)Electrolysis-basedhydrogenA26.3(Smith,HillandTorrente-Murciano,2020)Low-temperatureelectrolysis,nitrogenfromASUB11.8(Liu,ElgowainyandWang,2020)Low-temperatureelectrolysis,nitrogenfromPSAB16.1(Liu,ElgowainyandWang,2020)High-temperatureelectrolysis,nitrogenfromASUB13.4(Liu,ElgowainyandWang,2020)INNOVATIONOUTLOOK132FeedstockOriginalsystemboundariesRawmaterialtofinaluseGHGemittedingCO2-eq/MJSourceResourcetype:Power-basedHigh-temperatureelectrolysis,nitrogenfromPSAB17.7(Liu,ElgowainyandWang,2020)ElectrolysisfromwindA34.9(Al-BreikiandBicer,2021)ElectrolysisfromwindB26.6(Singh,DincerandRosen,2018)ElectrolysisfromsolarA60.1(Al-BreikiandBicer,2021)ElectrolysisfromsolarB68.5(Singh,DincerandRosen,2018)ElectrolysisfromhydropowerB20.8(Biceretal.,2016)ElectrolysisfrommunicipalwasteB18.6(Biceretal.,2016)ElectrolysisfrombiomassB46.0(Biceretal.,2016)High-temperatureelectrolysisfromnuclearB45.2(Biceretal.,2016)Resourcetype:Bio-basedBiomassgasificationB20.3(Singh,DincerandRosen,2018)BiomassgasificationB64.4(Aroraetal.,2018)WoodATRB41.5(Aroraetal.,2017)WoodsteamreformingB45.2(Aroraetal.,2017)WoodCO₂reformingB54.7(Aroraetal.,2017)StrawATRB60.1(Aroraetal.,2017)StrawsteamreformingB68.1(Aroraetal.,2017)StrawCO₂reformingB77.2(Aroraetal.,2017)StrawgasificationB37.5(Ahlgrenetal.,2008)SalixgasificationB29.5(Ahlgrenetal.,2008)BagasseATRB13.0(Aroraetal.,2017)BagassesteamreformingB17.6(Aroraetal.,2017)BagasseCO₂reformingB19.0(Aroraetal.,2017)RoundwoodgasificationB35.9(Gilbertetal.,2014)WoodchipsgasificationB0.3(Sarkar,KumarandSultana,2011)Resourcetype:NuclearHigh-temperatureelectrolysisB24.3(BicerandDincer,2017)Low-temperatureelectrolysisB25.8(BicerandDincer,2017)Cu-ClCycle(3step)B30.8(BicerandDincer,2017)Cu-ClCycle(4step)B29.8(BicerandDincer,2017)Cu-ClCycle(5step)B31.3(BicerandDincer,2017)RENEWABLEAMMONIA133AnnexCCapitalinvestmentforrenewableammoniaproductionAnumberofliteraturestudieshasbeenconductedonthecostofrenewableammonia.AselectedoverviewoftheseestimatedproductioncostsispresentedinTable10.Overall,theCAPEXisroughlybetweenUSD6000andUSD1500pertonneannuallyforrenewableammoniaproductionplants(excludingwindandsolargeneration),withplantproductioncapacitiesrangingfrom1ktperyearofammoniato500ktperyear.Table11providesadetailedinsightintothecapitalcostofrenewableammoniaplantsaroundtheworld.AvisualisationofthecapitalintensityofvariousammoniaplantsisshowninFigure16.Clearly,ammoniaproductiondependsstronglyontheplantsize,wherelarge-scaleoperationresultsinalowerrelativecapitalinvestment.Thecapitalintensityofvariousbiomass-basedammoniaproductionplantsisalsoshowninFigure16,basedonAkbari,OyedunandKumar(2018)andTunå,HultebergandAhlgren(2014).Table10ProductioncostsandproductioncapacityofgreenammoniareportedintheliteratureElectricitysourceforelectrolysisElectrolysistypeCapacity(kt/y)CAPEX(millionUSD)CAPEX(USD/t/y)OPEX(MUSD/y)OPEX(USD/t)Ammoniacost(USD/t)SourceAlkaline9.310426.414828461423------(GrundtandChristiansen,1982)Grid-2.06.810.229.0548446963.09.61474142517251640(Tunå,HultebergandAhlgren,2014)--0.0351.80.838.7283025919------(Morgan,ManwellandMcGowan,2014)HydroAlkaline701752633505251603274515687862307189217401644151622.352.283.7117198318298319333377432392405414452(Rivaroloetal.,2019)Wind,solarAlkaline--3955458338304709----273264261320471493452556(ArmijoandPhilibert,2020)INNOVATIONOUTLOOK134Table11Capitalcostforrenewableammoniaplants,includingorexcludingrenewableenergygenerationcostLocationCompaniesAmmoniacapacity(kt/y)CAPEX(millionUSD)CAPEX(USD/t/y)CAPEX(USD/kW)SourceIncludingenergygenerationMorris,UnitedStatesUniversityofMinnesota0.0253.75107145181335(Reese,2007)Puertollano,SpainIberdrola,Fertiberia4200177212443760106207406017975(Brown,2020f;FertiberiaandIberdrolaTaranaki,NewZealandBallanceAgri-Nutrients,HiringaEnergy536721012200(HiringaEnergy,2020)Revamp,onlywindandhydrogencapacityPilbara,AustraliaInterContinentalEnergy5710990017080277902990280550604750(Brown,2020a,2020b)Neom,SaudiArabiaAirProducts,ACWAPower,ThyssenKrupp,HaldorTopsøe1200500041657050(Brown,2020g)Pilbara,AustraliaYara242001000016925(Brown,2020e)Revamp,onlywind,solarandhydrogencapacityDuqm,OmanACME,Tatweer770250032455495(Zawya,2021)AbuDhabi,UnitedArabEmiratesKIZAD,HeliosIndustry20010005000118170(KIZAD,2021)AlWusta,OmanOQ,InterContinentalEnergy,EnerTech104502500023904050(Paddison,2021)MauritaniaCWP114254000035005925(CWP,2021)ExcludingenergygenerationPortLincoln,PortBonython,AustraliaH2U,Mitsubishi,SAgov,ThyssenKrupp1940951864935466083507890(Brown,2018f)Esbjerg,DenmarkCopenhagenInfrastructurePartners,Maersk,DFDS650121018603150(Barsoe,2021)SouthAustraliaGovernmentofSouthAustralia,Advisian,Siemens,AcilAllen200680-7203400–36005755–6095(GovernmentofSouthAustraliaetal.,2017)RENEWABLEAMMONIA135AnnexDTechnologystatusfortheammoniaeconomyTable12Technologystatusforammoniaproductiontechnologies,ammoniatransportandstorage,andammoniautilisationtechnologiesStatusNotesRenewableammoniaproductionRenewableenergyCommercialatrequiredscale•Thecombinedaddedsolarandwindcapacitywas238GWin2020(IRENA,2021b).•Annualrenewablesrequirementisaround115-170GWperyearfor566Mtofrenewableammoniaby2050,assuminglineargrowthandnotincludingrenewablesreplacement.Thisassumesaround5-8GWofrenewablesper1GWammoniaplant(ArnaizdelPozoandCloete,2022).•Materialshortageisnotexpected.CurrentexplorationofrawmaterialsislimitedtoEasternAsia,althoughdepositsareavailableinothercountries(Wengetal.,2015).WaterpurificationCommercialatrequiredscale•Watersecuritycanbeanissueatlocationswithhighsolarirradiation.•Wateruseforgigawatt-scaleprojectscanbesignificant.Thiscanstrainlocalcleanwatersupply,ifwatersupplyisnotadded.•Comparedtoelectrolyser,energyconsumptionfordesalinationislow.ThemaximumcostofdesalinationisaroundUSD0.02perkilogramofhydrogen(SalmonandBañares-Alcántara,2021).HydrogenproductionCommercialbutsignificantscaleuprequired•In2020,theelectrolyserproductioncapacitywasaround2.1GWperyear(ESMAPandWorldBank,2020).•Each1Mtperyearofammoniaaddedrequiresaround2-3GWofelectrolysers(ArnaizdelPozoandCloete,2022),dependingonthecapacityfactorforsolarandwindresources.Hydrogenstoragemayberequired.•Annualelectrolysersrequirementabout40-65GWperyearfor566Mtofrenewableammoniaby2050,assuminglineargrowthandnotincludingelectrolyserreplacement.Thisimpliesafactor20-30increaseinelectrolysercapacityrequired.•Alkalineelectrolysisreliesonnickel.Materialshortageisnotexpected(SalmonandBañares-Alcántara,2021).•PEMelectrolysisreliesonplatinumandiridium(Hauchetal.,2020).Around5tonnesofiridiumisproducedglobally,whilea1GWelectrolyserrequires0.5tonnesofiridium(Heggeetal.,2020).Thus,materialshortageisexpectedifPEMisappliedformultiplegigawatt-scaleprojects.•Solidoxideelectrolysisreliesonyttrium.Materialshortageisnotexpected(SalmonandBañares-Alcántara,2021).•Large-scalehydrogenstorageisalsopossibleinplaceswithsaltcaverns,linedrockcaverns,andotherundergroundshafts,aswellasthroughhydrogenpipelinenetworks(Gabriellietal.,2020).Batterystorageisrelativelycostlyandismainlyrelevantforstorageofafewhours.•One-day-equivalenthydrogenstoragecostsaroundUSD35-150pertonneofammonia(ArmijoandPhilibert,2020;Vrijenhoef,2016).StorageinsaltcavernshasthelowestcostatUSD35pertonneofammonia,whilestorageinlinedrockcavernscostsaroundUSD65pertonneofammonia(Ahluwaliaetal.,2019).INNOVATIONOUTLOOK136StatusNotesRenewableammoniaproductionNitrogenpurification,ammoniaproductionCommercialatindustrialscale,demonstrationrequired•World-scalefossil-basedammoniaplantsarealreadyoperatingat0.7-1.2Mtperyear(Brightling,2018).•Renewableammoniahasbeencommercialat0.1-0.2Mtperyearsincethe1920s(Ernst,1928;Krishnanetal.,2020).•Themainchallengeoftheammoniasynthesisloopisintermittentoperation.•Nitrogenpurificationrequireslimitedenergy,e.g.around1GJpertonneofammonia(Rouwenhorstetal.,2019).However,intermittentoperationofacryogenicairseparationunittobelow50%isdifficult.InvestmentNolimitationsexpected•TotalinvestmentofaroundUSD2000billionisrequiredfor566Mtofrenewableammoniaby2050,basedonaninvestmentofUSD3000toUSD4000pertonneperyear,includingrenewablesgeneration(Figure16).ThisisequivalenttoannualinvestmentofaroundUSD75billion,assuminglineargrowth.•Forreference,aroundUSD300billionisinvestedannuallyinrenewablepowergeneration(IEA,2020b).LanduseNolimitationsexpected•Thearearequirementisaround315000to375000squarekilometres(km2)for566Mtofrenewableammoniaby2050.Therangeisduetothepowerenergydensitiesforsolarandwindenergy(vanZalkandBehrens,2018),combinedwithanestimatefromanactualrenewableammoniaplantbasedmainlyononshorewindpower(Tancock,2020).Mostoftheareaisrequiredforrenewableelectricitygeneration.Theammoniasynthesisplantaccountsfor0.2%ofthetotalarearequirement(SalmonandBañares-Alcántara,2021).•Theupperarearequirementestimatefor566MtofrenewableammoniaislargerthanthesizeofGermany(357000km2).•Moreefficientsolidoxideelectrolysistechnologycandecreasetheland-userequirementbyaround30-35%(Table4).AmmoniatransportTransportinfrastructureCommercial,butnotatrequiredscale•Infrastructureexistsfortransportbyship,pipeline,andrail,totalling25-30Mt(section1.2).•Newmarketsrequireinfrastructureof354Mtby2050(Figure29).Thisimpliesafactor10-15increaserequiredforthetransportinfrastructure.Around235shipswith85000m3ammoniacapacity(58kt)arerequiredtoaccommodate300Mttransportby2050,assumingavoyageeverytwoweeks.ThisimpliesthatashipforammoniatransportmustbebuiltorrevampedfromLPGtransportroughlyeverytwomonthsupto2050.•TypicalammoniatransportcostsareUSD30-75pertonneofammonia(SalmonandBañares-Alcántara,2021),resultinginuptoUSD26.5billioninannualtransportcostsfortheglobalammoniamarket.•AirProductsannounceditwouldinvestaroundUSD2billiontodistributerenewableammoniatoendcustomers(Brown,2020g).•Safetyisasignificantissue.Ammoniahasbeenhandledforacentury.Itneedscommercialdemonstrationfornewapplicationswithtrainedoperators.RENEWABLEAMMONIA137StatusNotesAmmoniatransportPortinfrastructureandbunkeringCommercial,butnotatrequiredscale•Newmarketsrequireinfrastructureof354Mtby2050(Figure29).Around735ammoniastoragetanksof50ktofammoniaarerequiredtoaccountforoneweekofammoniastorageontheproductionanddemandsides.ThisrequiresaninvestmentofUSD20billionforammoniastoragecapacityto2050.CAPEXestimatesfromLeighthy(2017).•Variousdemonstrationswillinvestigateammoniabunkeringinthecomingyears.RegulatoryframeworkNotinplace,requiredforammoniaproducersandconsumers•Certificatesoforiginforlow-carbonammoniaarenotyetinplace.Thesemayberequiredtoreachagreementbetweenammoniaproducersandconsumers.•Life-cycleassessmentcanbeusedtoassessthecarbonfootprint(seesection3.2).AmmoniautilisationGeneralaspectsN/A•Low-carbonammoniafromfossilfuelswithCCSde-risksthetransitionfromcurrentfuelstorenewableammonia.Inthelongterm,renewableammoniaismostdesirable.•Partnershipsbetweenexportingandimportingcompaniesarerequired.Currently,variousMemorandaofUnderstandingarebeingsigned.•Certificationmayberequiredtoreachagreementbetweenexportingandimportingcompanies.HydrogenproductionNotcommercialyet,butnolimitationsexpected•Notcommercialyetatlargescale,butgigawatt-scaleprojectsareannouncedintheNetherlandsandGermany(Table5).Gigawatt-scaleoperationisexpectedby2030.•Technologyisnotabottleneck,althoughdemonstrationisrequired.Thetechnologyisprobablysimilartosteammethanereformingtechnologyforhydrogenproduction.ShippingfuelNotcommercialyet,limitationinregulatoryframework•Notcommercialyet,butengineswillbereadybythemid2020s,basedonretrofittechnologyfortwo-strokeandfour-strokeengines(Table6).Solidoxidefuelcellsmaybeintroducedatalaterstageorsimultaneously.•Commercial-scaledemonstrationsofammoniaasamaritimefuelisexpectedbythemid2020s(Table6).•Shipownersneedtomakedecisionforarenewablefueloptionsoon,asshipshavealifetimeof20-25years.Dual-fuelenginesmaybeusedtode-riskinvestmentinammonia-fuelledships.•AmmoniaiscurrentlynotapprovedasamaritimefuelbytheIMO,implyingthatroll-outofammoniaasamaritimefuelislimited.•5%zero-carbonfuelsarerequiredby2030tomeetthe1.5°Cscenario(Osterkamp,SmithandSøgaard,2021).Decarbonisingammoniavesselsisalow-hangingfruit.StationarypowerNotcommercialyet,limitationsexpectednearresidentialareas,butnolimitationsinportareas•Notcommercialyet,butcommercial-scaletechnologywillbereadyinJapanbythemid2020s.Thisincludes20%ammoniaco-firingincoal-firedplants(Kumagai,2021),andammonia-firedgasturbines(Patel,2021).•Ammoniacanbeusedincurrentfossil-fuelbasedinfrastructure,implyinglocked-inCO2emissionsarealleviated,andstrandedassetsareprevented.•NOXemissionsshouldbeminimised.NOXemissioncontrolwithammonia(SCR)issometimesalreadyinplace.•InEurope,changesofpermitstatusarerequiredforco-firingammoniaincoal-firedpowerplants.Currently,therearesafetyconcerns.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK138AnnexEProjectedammoniauseinvarioussectorsTable13ProjecteduseofammoniainvarioussectorsLocationYearAmmoniacapacity(Mt)NotesSourceCurrentusesWorld201820202050181184299AccordingtoMcKinsey,assuming65%growthto2050duetopopulationgrowth(dePeeetal.,2018)World20302050216252AccordingtotheIEA,Baseline(IEA,2021a)World20302050205227AccordingtotheIEA,SustainableDevelopmentScenario(SDS),NetZeroEmissions(NZE)(IEA,2021a)AmmoniaashydrogencarrierEuropeanUnion203520506.012AnnouncedcapacityAssuminglineargrowthofannouncedcapacityto2050Table5EuropeanUnion2050135Assuming18Mtofhydrogenimportedasammoniaby2050(PortofRotterdam,2020)RepublicofKorea203020402050103356AssumingtheimportedhydrogenisproducedbyammoniadecompositionAssuminglineargrowth(SalmonandBañares-Alcántara,2021)Global202520302035204020452050027121621AccordingtoArgusMedia(ArgusMedia,2021e)Global202520302035204020452050013932110AccordingtoIRENA(statedpolicies)(IRENA,2022)Global2025203020352040204520500251544127AccordingtoIRENA(1.5°Cscenario)(IRENA,2022)RENEWABLEAMMONIA139LocationYearAmmoniacapacity(Mt)NotesSourceAmmoniaforpowergenerationJapan2025203020500.5-13-530AccordingtotheCleanFuelAmmoniaAssociation(ArgusMedia,2021d,2021c)Japan20302035204020452050003581186AccordingtotheInstituteofEnergyEconomics(Japan),assumeslimitedroleofrenewables(33%by2050)(Lu,KawakamiandHirai,2018)Japan2030203520402045205012355485AccordingtotheInstituteofEnergyEconomics(Japan)withmax.25%ammoniainpowermix,assumeslimitedroleofrenewables(36%by2050)(Lu,KawakamiandHirai,2018)Global202520302035204020452050037111214AccordingtoArgusMedia(ArgusMedia,2021e)Global20302050363AccordingtotheIEA,SustainableDevelopmentScenario(SDS)(IEA,2021a)Global203020505484AccordingtotheIEA,NetZeroEmissions(NZE)(IEA,2021a)AmmoniaasmaritimefuelGlobal20302040205020602070841103188302EnergyTechnologyPerspectives(IEA,2020c)Global2050173-774DNVGL2020,assumingIMOambitions(DNVGL,2020)Global2050251-1069DNVGL2020,assumingdecarbonisationby2040(DNVGL,2020)Global203120362041204620500192315803952AccordingtotheGettingToZeroCoalition,decarbonisationby2050(1.5°Caligned)(Rauccietal.,2020)INNOVATIONOUTLOOK140LocationYearAmmoniacapacity(Mt)NotesSourceAmmoniaasmaritimefuelGlobal203120362041204620500178349539673AccordingtotheGettingToZeroCoalition,decarbonisationby2070(IMOaligned)(Rauccietal.,2020)Global2050150Assuming30%ofmaritimefuelsuppliedbyammonia(HaldorTopsøeetal.,2020)Global2050247AccordingtoIRENA’sWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook:1.5°CPathway(IRENA,2021c)Global202520302035204020452050012745146AccordingtoArgusMedia(ArgusMedia,2021e)Global203020507127AccordingtotheIEA,SustainableDevelopmentScenario(SDS)(IEA,2021a)Global2030205037245AccordingtotheIEA,NetZeroEmissions(NZE)(IEA,2021a)Global2025203020352040204520500110207283336333AccordingtoZeroCarbonShippingCenter(basecase)(MærskMc-KinneyMøllerCenterforZeroCarbonShipping,2021)Global20252030203520402045205001026435977AccordingtoIRENA(statedpolicies)(IRENA,2021d)Global20252030203520402045205002668111152197AccordingtoIRENA(1.5°Cscenario)(IRENA,2021d)RENEWABLEAMMONIA141AnnexFStatedpoliciesdemandandproductionFigure36Ammoniademandestimatesfromvarioussources(seeTable13)Ammoniademand(Mt)MarketFertiliserOthercurrentmarketsShippingfuelHydrogenfeedstockPowergenerationMedianFigure37Expectedammoniademandupto2050forthestatedpoliciesscenarioAmmoniademand(Mt)FertiliserapplicationsOtherexistingusesShippingHydrogencarrierPowergeneration(Japan)Total°CINNOVATIONOUTLOOK142AnnexGKeyreferencedataFigure38Expectedammoniaproductionbyfeedstockupto2050forthestatedpoliciesscenarioAmmoniademand(Mt)FossilnoCCSFossilwithCCSRenewableCoalNaturalgasMethaneHydrogenAmmoniaMethanolMolarmass(gmol-1)207.25-16.0432.01617.03132.04Density(kg/m3)-0.7770.7160.08990.7700.791Meltingpoint(°C)---182.5-259.16-77.73-97.6Boilingpoint(°C)---161.5-252.88-33.3464.7Lowerheatingvalue(MJ/kg)-47.150.0120.018.619.9Higherheatingvalue(MJ/kg)30-3352.255.5141.722.523.0Coal:Anthraciteorbituminous.molarmassofanthracite.Naturalgas:USmarket.Densityat0°Cand1bar.RENEWABLEAMMONIA143AnnexHFuturecostestimatesforrenewableammoniaTable14CostestimateforrenewableammoniaproductionYear2020203020402050Lowend(USD/tonne)720475380310Highend(USD/tonne)1400950750610Note:RoundedtoUSD5pertonne.INNOVATIONOUTLOOK144www.irena.orgirena.orgirenairenaimagesCopyright©IRENA2022
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