Review2021AssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021GlobalEnergyTheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits30membercountries,8associationcountriesandbeyond.Pleasenotethatthispublicationissubjecttospecificrestrictionsthatlimititsuseanddistribution.Thetermsandconditionsareavailableonlineatwww.iea.org/t&c/Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Source:IEA.Allrightsreserved.InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.orgIEAmembercountries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesTheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEAIEAassociationcountries:BrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYGlobalEnergyReview2021AbstractAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE1IEA.Allrightsreserved.AbstractAstheworldentersasecondyearoftheCovid-19pandemic,theannualGlobalEnergyReviewassessesthedirectionenergydemandandcarbondioxideemissionsaretakingin2021.Thelateststatisticaldataandreal-timeanalysisconfirmourinitialestimatesfor2020energydemandandCO2emissionswhileprovidinginsightsintohoweconomicactivityandenergyusearereboundingincountriesaroundtheworld–andwhatthismeansforglobalemissions.TheacceleratingrolloutsofCovid-19vaccinationsinmanymajoreconomiesandwidespreadfiscalresponsestotheeconomiccrisisareboostingtheoutlookforeconomicgrowthandleadingtoareboundinenergydemandin2021.ThereportexploreswhetherthereboundinactivityriskspushingCO2emissionstoanewhighandtowhatdegreenewpoliciestargetingasustainablerecoveryareabletocurbareboundinemissions.Thepaceofglobalvaccinerollouts,thepossibleemergenceofnewvariantsoftheCovid-19virus,andthesizeandeffectivenessofeconomicstimulusmeasuresallrepresentmajoruncertaintiesfortheoutlook.ThisanalysisthereforenotonlychartsapossiblepathforenergyuseandCO2emissionsin2021butalsohighlightsthemanyfactorsthatcouldleadtodifferingoutcomes.GlobalEnergyReview2021KeyfindingsAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE2IEA.Allrightsreserved.KeyfindingsTheCovid-19pandemiccontinuestoimpactglobalenergydemand.Thirdwavesofthepandemicareprolongingrestrictionsonmovementandcontinuetosubdueglobalenergydemand.Butstimuluspackagesandvaccinerolloutsprovideabeaconofhope.Globaleconomicoutputisexpectedtoreboundby6%in2021,pushingtheglobalGDPmorethan2%higherthan2019levelsEmergingmarketsaredrivingenergydemandbackabove2019levels.Globalenergydemandissettoincreaseby4.6%in2021,morethanoffsettingthe4%contractionin2020andpushingdemand0.5%above2019levels.Almost70%oftheprojectedincreaseinglobalenergydemandisinemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies,wheredemandissettoriseto3.4%above2019levels.Energyuseinadvancedeconomiesisoncoursetobe3%belowpre-Covidlevels.Globalenergy-relatedCO2emissionsareheadingfortheirsecond-largestannualincreaseever.Demandforallfossilfuelsissettogrowsignificantlyin2021.Coaldemandaloneisprojectedtoincreaseby60%morethanallrenewablescombined,underpinningariseinemissionsofalmost5%,or1500Mt.Thisexpectedincreasewouldreverse80%ofthedropin2020,withemissionsendingupjust1.2%(or400Mt)below2019emissionslevels.Sluggishdemandfortransportoilismitigatingthereboundinemissions.Despiteanexpectedannualincreaseof6.2%in2021,globaloildemandissettoremainaround3%below2019levels.Oiluseforroadtransportisnotprojectedtoreachpre-Covidlevelsuntiltheendof2021.Oiluseforaviationisprojectedtoremain20%below2019levelseveninDecember2021,withannualdemandmorethan30%lowerthanin2019.Afullreturntopre-crisisoildemandlevelswouldhavepushedupCO2emissionsafurther1.5%,puttingthemwellabove2019levels.Globalcoaldemandin2021issettoexceed2019levelsandapproachits2014peak.Coaldemandisoncoursetorise4.5%in2021,withmorethan80%ofthegrowthconcentratedinAsia.Chinaaloneisprojectedtoaccountforover50%ofglobalgrowth.CoaldemandintheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionisalsorebounding,butisstillsettoremainwellbelowpre-crisislevels.Thepowersectoraccountedforonly50%ofthedropincoal-relatedemissionsin2020.Buttherapidincreaseincoal-firedgenerationinAsiameansthepowersectorisexpectedtoaccountfor80%ofthereboundin2021.GlobalEnergyReview2021KeyfindingsAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE3IEA.Allrightsreserved.Amongfossilfuels,naturalgasisoncourseforthebiggestriserelativeto2019levels.Naturalgasdemandissettogrowby3.2%in2021,propelledbyincreasingdemandinAsia,theMiddleEastandtheRussianFederation(“Russia”).Thisisexpectedtoputglobaldemandmorethan1%above2019levels.IntheUnitedStates–theworld’slargestnaturalgasmarket–theannualincreaseindemandissettoamounttolessthan20%ofthe20bcmdeclinein2020,squeezedbythecontinuedgrowthofrenewablesandrisingnaturalgasprices.Nearlythree-quartersoftheglobaldemandgrowthin2021isfromtheindustryandbuildingssectors,whileelectricitygenerationfromnaturalgasremainsbelow2019levels.Electricitydemandisheadingforitsfastestgrowthinmorethan10years.Electricitydemandisduetoincreaseby4.5%in2021,orover1000TWh.Thisisalmostfivetimesgreaterthanthedeclinein2020,cementingelectricity'sshareinfinalenergydemandabove20%.Almost80%oftheprojectedincreaseindemandin2021isinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,withthePeople'sRepublicChina(“China”)aloneaccountingforhalfofglobalgrowth.Demandinadvancedeconomiesremainsbelow2019levels.RenewablesremainthesuccessstoryoftheCovid-19era.Demandforrenewablesgrewby3%in2020andissettoincreaseacrossallkeysectors–power,heating,industryandtransport–in2021.Thepowersectorleadstheway,withitsdemandforrenewablesoncoursetoexpandbymorethan8%,toreach8300TWh,thelargestyear-on-yeargrowthonrecordinabsoluteterms.Renewablesaresettoprovidemorethanhalfoftheincreaseinglobalelectricitysupplyin2021.SolarPVandwindareexpectedtocontributetwo-thirdsofrenewables’growth.Theshareofrenewablesinelectricitygenerationisprojectedtoincreasetoalmost30%in2021,theirhighestsharesincethebeginningoftheIndustrialRevolutionandupfromlessthan27%in2019.Windisontracktorecordthelargestincreaseinrenewablegeneration,growingby275TWh,oraround17%,from2020.SolarPVelectricitygenerationisexpectedtoriseby145TWh,oralmost18%,andtoapproach1000TWhin2021.Chinaaloneislikelytoaccountforalmosthalftheglobalincreaseinrenewableelectricitygeneration.ItisfollowedbytheUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnionandIndia.Chinaisexpectedtogenerateover900TWhfromsolarPVandwindin2021,theEuropeanUnionaround580TWh,andtheUnitedStates550TWh.Together,theyrepresentalmostthree-quartersofglobalsolarPVandwindoutput.GlobalEnergyReview2021EconomicimpactsofCovid19AssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE4IEA.Allrightsreserved.EconomicimpactsofCovid-192021:Ayearofglobaleconomicrecovery?Whiletheglobalhealthcrisiscontinuesintheearlymonthsof2021withsecondandeventhirdwavesofthevirusinmanyregions,acceleratingvaccinerolloutsandmajorstimuluspackagesinmanyadvancedeconomieshaveprovidedabeaconofhope.TheIMFprojectstheglobaleconomywillgrowby6%in2021,morethancompensatingforthe3.5%dropin2020.AnnualrateofchangeinworldGDP1990-2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedoneconomicdatafromtheIMFandOxfordEconomics.ThankstoasuccessfulvaccineprogramandtheAmericanRescuePlan(“theBidenstimulus”),GDPintheUnitedStateswillriseabovepre-Covid-19projections.TheEuropeanUnion,ontheotherhand,washitbyaseveresecondwaveinthewinterof2020/21,leadingtorenewedeconomicclosuresandlockdowns,withrecoveryfurtherimpededbyaslowstarttovaccinationcampaigns.Theimpactofnationalstimuluspackagesmaynotbefeltuntilthesecondhalfoftheyear.Economicoutputin2021isexpectedtoremain2.3%below2019levels.Onapositivenote,thebloc’sindustrialproductionisbacktopre-Covidlevels,owingtoarecoveryininternationaltrade.Chinacurtailedthevirusearlyonandwasone-4%-2%0%2%4%6%1990200020102021GlobalEnergyReview2021EconomicimpactsofCovid19AssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE5IEA.Allrightsreserved.ofthefeweconomiestoexpandin2020.Dynamicgrowthisexpectedtocontinuethrough2021,drivenbyexports,butespeciallybydomesticdemand,includingpolicy-sponsoredinfrastructureprojects.KoreaandJapanavoidedrepeatedwavesofthepandemicthroughtestingandtracing,andlikewisearebenefitingfromrevivingworldtrade.ChangeinGDPinselectedregions,2019to2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.IndiaislikelytobeakeyvariablefortheglobaleconomicoutlookIndia’scombinationofsomeoftheworld’sstrictestlockdownmeasuresandlimitedstimulusspendingledtooneofthesharpestdeclinesofanymajoreconomy,withGDPdroppingby7.2%in2020.Theoutlooksignificantlyimprovedattheendoftheyear,drivenbyrecoveringindustrialproduction.EarlyestimatesplaceIndia’sannualGDPgrowthat12%in2021,thoughwithsignificantuncertaintieslinkedtotheevolutionofinfectionsandtherolloutofvaccines.Inmanyemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies,economicrecoveryhasbeenconstrainedbylimitedaccesstovaccinedoses,capitalflightandconcernsoverdebtlevelsandrisinginterestrates.Addingtothesepressures,LatinAmericahasbeenhitbyasecondwaveofthepandemic.Meanwhile,higheroilpriceshaveincreasedrevenuesforoilexporters.-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2020/20192021/20202021/2019IndiaEuropeanUnionJapanUnitedStatesChinaWorldGlobalEnergyReview2021EnergydemandAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE6IEA.Allrightsreserved.EnergydemandGlobalenergydemandissettoincreaseby4.6%in2021,surpassingpre-Covid-19levels.Globalenergydemandin2020fellby4%,thelargestdeclinesinceWorldWarIIandthelargesteverabsolutedecline.Thelateststatisticaldataforenergydemandinthefirstquarterof2021highlightsthecontinuedimpactsofthepandemiconglobalenergyuse.BuildingonQ1data,projectionsfor2021indicatethatasCovidrestrictionsareliftedandeconomiesrecover,energydemandisexpectedtoreboundby4.6%,pushingglobalenergyusein20210.5%abovepre-Covid-19levels.Theoutlookfor2021is,however,subjecttomajoruncertainty.Itdependsonvaccinerollouts,theextenttowhichtheCovid-19-inducedlockdownsscarredeconomies,andthesizeandeffectivenessofstimuluspackages.CurrenteconomicoutlooksassumeglobalGDPwillsurpass2019levels,liftingdemandforgoods,servicesandenergy.However,transportactivityand,particularly,internationaltravelremainseverelysupressed.Iftransportdemandreturnstopre-Covidlevelsacross2021,globalenergydemandwillriseevenhigher,toalmost2%above2019levels,anincreasebroadlyinlinewiththereboundinglobaleconomicactivity.EvolutionofglobalGDP,totalprimaryenergydemand,andenergy-relatedCO2emissions,relativeto2019.IEA.Allrightsreserved.-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%201920202021Indexed(2019=0%)GDPEnergydemandCO2emissionsGlobalEnergyReview2021EnergydemandAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE7IEA.Allrightsreserved.EnergydemandbyfuelThedropindemandin2020didnotaffectallfuelsevenly.Oilwasbyfarthehardesthit,withrestrictionsonmobilitycausingdemandfortransportfuelstofallby14%from2019levels.AtthepeakofrestrictionsinApril,globaloildemandwasmorethan20%belowpre-crisislevels.Overall,oildemandwasdownbyalmost9%acrosstheyear.In2021,oildemandisexpectedtoreboundby6%,fasterthanallotherfuels.Thelasttimeoildemandincreasedthisrapidlywasin1976.Despitethestrongrebound,oildemandremains3%(3.1mb/d)below2019levels.Roadtransportactivityhasremainedsubduedthroughmuchoftheyear,expectedtorecovertopre-Covid-19levelsonlyinthelastmonthsof2021,whileairtransportdemandisontracktoremainmarkedlybelow2019levelsforallof2021.OnlyinAsiaand,notably,inChinadoesoildemandclimbwellabovepre-Covid-19levels.In2020,coaldemanddroppedby220milliontonnesofcoalequivalent(Mtce),or4%.Thelargestdeclinesincoaluseforelectricitygenerationwereinadvancedeconomies,down15%,whichaccountsformorethanhalfofcoal’sglobaldecline.Coalwasparticularlysqueezedinthepowermixbylowerelectricitydemand,increasingoutputfromrenewables,andlowgasprices.In2021,coaldemandhasreboundedstrongly,reversingallofthedeclinesin2020,thoughwithmajorgeographicvariations.Thedeclinein2020wasconcentratedintheUnitedStatesandEurope,anddemandinadvancedeconomiesisexpectedtorecoveronlyone-quarterofits2020drop,curtailedbyrenewablesdeployment,lowergaspricesandphase-outpolicies.Meanwhile,Chinaisprojectedtoaccountfor55%ofthe2021increase.Changeofprimaryenergydemandbyregionandbyfuelin2021relativeto2019IEA.Allrightsreserved.-5%0%5%10%OilCoalGasRenewablesNuclearTotalChinaIndiaUnitedStatesEuropeanUnionWorldGlobalEnergyReview2021EnergydemandAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE8IEA.Allrightsreserved.Lowerpricesenabledgastobemoreresilientthancoalin2020,withdemandfallingonlyby2%.ThecombinationofcontinuedlowerpricesandrapidgrowthineconomiesacrossAsiaandtheMiddleEastshoulddrivegrowthof3%ingasdemandin2021.Asaresult,globalnaturalgasdemandin2021isprojectedtorise1.3%above2019levels,thestrongestanticipatedreboundamongstfossilfuels.Renewableshaveprovenlargelyimmunetothepandemicasnewcapacityhascomeonlineandastheyhavebenefitedfromprioritymarketaccessinmanymarkets.Overall,renewablesusagegrewby3%in2020,largelyduetoanincreaseinelectricitygenerationfromsolarPVandwindof330TWh.GenerationfromsolarPVandwindissettogrowby17%in2021,upfrom16%in2020.Hydroandbiomassgenerationshouldalsoaccelerate,withtotalgenerationfromrenewablesgrowingby8.3%in2021,whichisfasterthan2020’s7%increase.Twoyearsofrapidgrowthmeanstheshareofrenewablesintotalelectricitygenerationwillreachalmost30%,upfromlessthan27%in2019.EnergydemandbyregionTheworld’sbiggesteconomieshavebeenimpactedbyCovid-19todifferentdegrees.Energydemandacrossadvancedeconomiesfellbyover6%onaveragein2020,witheveryadvancedeconomyatsomepointexperiencingacontractionofeconomicoutput.Lookingto2021,advancedeconomiesareexpectedtoseerapidrecoveriesineconomicoutputandenergydemandacrossmostsectors.However,recoverieswillnotbegininearnestuntilthesecondhalfoftheyearbecauseofcontinuedimpactsofthepandemic,especiallyintheEuropeanUnion.IntheUnitedStates,despitetherecentlyannouncedUSD2.3trillionstimulus-spendingprogramme,energydemandisprojectedtoincreaseonly4%in2021,withdemandremaining3%below2019levels.GlobalEnergyReview2021EnergydemandAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE9IEA.Allrightsreserved.Rateofchangeofenergydemandin2020,and2021energydemandrelativeto2019levels,byregionIEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Bubblesizeisrelativetoregionalprimaryenergydemandin2021.Mostemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesalsoexperiencedadropinenergydemandin2020,albeitlessthaninadvancedeconomies.Demanddeclined5%inIndia,around3%inSoutheastAsia,2%intheMiddleEastand1.5%acrossAfrica.Chinawasanotableexception,theonlymajoreconomytoexperiencebothanincreaseineconomicoutputandinenergydemandin2020.WhilerestrictionstocontroltheoutbreakofCovid-19depresseddemandinthefirstquarter,theeconomybegantorecoverfromApril.Fortheremainderoftheyear,energydemandgrewby6%onaveragefrompre-Covid-19levels.Despitetheimpressivegrowthofrenewables,increasingelectricitydemandledtoanall-timehighcoalburninDecember2020.EconomicactivityinChinaissettofurtheracceleratein2021,andenergydemandisexpectedtogrowby6%,withdemandin2021almost8%higherthanin2019,thuscementingChina’spositionastheeconomyleastimpactedbyCovid-19.India’ssteepeconomicslidein2020pushedoildemanddownbymorethan8%,whilecoaldemandforpowergenerationandindustryfellby5%and11%,respectively.India’sCO2emissionsweremorethan40%lowerinApril2020thantheywereayearearlier,makingitthesteepestmonthlydeclineinemissionsseeninanypartoftheworldlastyear.ButwithIndia’seconomyexpectedtobouncebackstronglyin2021,energydemandissettoreboundby7%,pushingdemand2%above2019levels.Coaldemandisexpectedtoincreasebyalmost9%,contributingthemosttoreboundingdemand,aselectricitydemandrecovers.ChinaIndiaUnitedStatesEuropeanUnionRussiaSoutheastAsiaAfricaMiddleEastJapanBrazilWorld-10%-5%0%5%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2020/20192021/2019<-PartialrecoveryFullrecovery->GlobalEnergyReview2021CO2emissionsAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE10IEA.Allrightsreserved.CO2emissionsGlobalCO2emissionsdeclinedby5.8%in2020,oralmost2GtCO2–thelargesteverdeclineandalmostfivetimesgreaterthanthe2009declinethatfollowedtheglobalfinancialcrisis.CO2emissionsfellfurtherthanenergydemandin2020owingtothepandemichittingdemandforoilandcoalharderthanotherenergysourceswhilerenewablesincreased.Despitethedeclinein2020,globalenergy-relatedCO2emissionsremainedat31.5Gt,whichcontributedtoCO2reachingitshighesteveraverageannualconcentrationintheatmosphereof412.5partspermillionin2020–around50%higherthanwhentheindustrialrevolutionbegan.In2021globalenergy-relatedCO2emissionsareprojectedtoreboundandgrowby4.8%asdemandforcoal,oilandgasreboundswiththeeconomy.Theincreaseofover1500MtCO2wouldbethelargestsingleincreasesincethecarbon-intensiveeconomicrecoveryfromtheglobalfinancialcrisismorethanadecadeago,itleavesglobalemissionsin2021around400MtCO2,or1.2%,belowthe2019peak.GlobalCO2emissionsreboundbynearly5%in2021,approachingthe2018-2019peak.GlobalEnergyReview2021CO2emissionsAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE11IEA.Allrightsreserved.Globalenergy-relatedCO2emissions,1990-2021,andchangeinCO2emissionsbyfuel,1990-2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.CO2emissionsbyfuelDespiteglobaleconomicactivityrisingabove2019levelsin2021andglobalenergydemandreboundingabove2019levels,wedonotanticipateafullreturnofCO2emissionstopre-crisislevels.EvenwithanincreaseinCO2emissionsfromoilofover650MtCO2in2021,oil-relatedemissionsareexpectedtorecoveronlyaroundhalfofthe2020dropandthusshouldremain500MtCO2below2019levels.ThelikelypartialrecoveryisentirelyduetothecontinuedimpactsoftheCovid-19pandemicandrelatedrestrictionsontransportactivityin2021.CO2emissionsfrominternationalaviationaresettoremain200MtCO2(orone-third)belowpre-pandemiclevelsin2021,whileemissionsfromroadtransportanddomesticaviationareontracktobecloseto350MtCO2(or5%)below2019levels-2-10121990199520002005201020152021GtCO₂CoalOilGas102030401990199520002005201020152021GtCO₂GlobalEnergyReview2021CO2emissionsAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE12IEA.Allrightsreserved.in2021.Afullrecoveryofglobaltransportactivitywouldpushoil-relatedemissionsabove2019levelsandincreaseglobalCO2emissionsbyover1.5%,wellabove2019levels.Globalcoaluseisanticipatedtoreboundin2021anddriveanincreaseinglobalCO2emissionsofaround640MtCO2.Thiswouldpushemissionsfromcoalto14.8GtCO2:0.4%above2019levelsandonly350MtCO2shortoftheglobalhighincoal-relatedCO2emissionsof2014.Thepowersectoraccountedforlessthan50%ofthedropincoal-relatedemissionsin2020,butitaccountsfor80%oftherebound,largelyduetorapidlyincreasingcoal-firedgenerationinAsia.CO2emissionsfromnaturalgascombustionareexpectedtoincreasebymorethan215MtCO2in2021toreachanall-timehighof7.35GtCO2,22%ofglobalCO2emissions.Gasuseinbuildingsandindustryaccountsformuchofthetrend,withdemandinpublicandcommercialbuildingsseeingthegreatestdropindemandin2020butthebiggestanticipatedrecoveryin2021.CO2emissionsbyregionEmergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomiesnowaccountformorethantwo-thirdsofglobalCO2emissions,whileemissionsinadvancedeconomiesareinastructuraldecline,despiteananticipated4%reboundin2021.China’semissionsarelikelytoincreasebyaround500MtCO2.Withenergydemandandemissionsalreadygrowingin2020,in2021CO2emissionsinChinashouldbe6%,oralmost600MtCO2,above2019levels.AllfossilfuelsshouldcontributetohigherCO2emissionsinChinain2021,butcoalisexpectedtodominate,contributing70%totheincrease,predominantlyduetogreatercoaluseinthepowersector.DespiteChina’srapidgrowthingenerationfromrenewables,outputfromcoal-firedpowerplantshasincreasedby330TWh,ornearly7%,between2019and2021.EconomicrecoveryinIndiain2021issettopushemissionsalmost200Mthigherthan2020,leavingemissions1.4%(or30Mt)above2019levels.Areboundincoaldemandabove2019levelsdrovetheemissionsincreaseinIndia,withtheexpectedriseincoal-firedelectricitygenerationin2021likelytobethreetimesgreaterthantheincreaseingenerationfromrenewables.CO2emissionsinIndiaarenowbroadlyonparwithemissionsintheEuropeanUnionat2.35Gt,althoughtheyremaintwo-thirdsloweronapercapitabasisand60%belowtheglobalaverage.GlobalEnergyReview2021CO2emissionsAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE13IEA.Allrightsreserved.IntheUnitedStates,CO2emissionsin2021areexpectedtoreboundbymorethan200MtCO2to4.46GtCO2,yetremain5.6%below2019levelsand21%below2005levels.CO2emissionsfromcoalareexpectedtobealmost12%below2019ascoaluseforelectricitygenerationislikelytorecoveronly40%ofthegroundlosttorenewablesandnaturalgasin2020.Oiluse,thebiggestcontributortoCO2emissionsintheUnitedStates,shouldremainalmost6%below2019levelsastransportactivityremainscurtailedacross2021.CO2emissionsarelikelytoreboundlessintheEuropeanUnion,astheeconomicoutlookisdimmerthaninotherpartsoftheworld.Theexpectedincreaseof80MtCO2in2021willreverseonlyone-thirdof2020’sdrop.EUemissionsin2021shouldstandat2.4Gt.Mostofthe90MtCO2dropinpowersectoremissionsin2020willendurethrough2021,withaslightanticipatedincreaseincoalandgas-firedgenerationin2021reversingonly10%ofthe2020drop.TheshareofcoalinelectricitygenerationintheEuropeanUnionhasdeclinedalmostthree-percentagepointsfrom2019to2021,tolessthan14%.CO2emissionsfromadvancedeconomieshavefallenby1.8GtCO2since2000,andtheirshareinglobalemissionshasdeclinedbytwentypercentagepointstolessthanone-thirdoftheglobaltotal.GlobalEnergyReview2021OilAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE14IEA.Allrightsreserved.OilOildemandin2020sawitsbiggesteverannualdeclineMeasurestorestrainthespreadofCovid-19andtheensuingrecessiontriggeredanestimated8.5mb/d(8.8%)dropinoildemandin2020–thelargesteverdeclineinbothabsoluteandrelativeterms.Thetransportsector,responsibleforaround60%oftotaloildemand,wasseverelyimpactedbymobilityrestrictionsin2020.Jetfuelandkerosenedemanddroppedby3.2mb/d(41%),withairpassengertraffic66%below2019levels,andgasolinedemanddeclinedbyover3mb/d(12%).Fueloildemanddroppedby0.5mb/d(8%)asbunkerfueldemanddeclinedalongwithinternationaltrade.Continuedfreighttransportactivitymitigatedthedeclineingasoildemandto1.8mb/d(6%),andLPG/ethaneandnaphthademandwasroughlyunchangedaspetrochemicalfeedstocksbenefitedfromincreasedsalesofpackaging,hygieneandmedicalequipment.Oildemand'sreboundin2021issoftenedbyasluggishaviationsectorTheimprovingeconomicenvironmentwillsupportareboundinglobaloildemandof5.4mb/d,or6%above2020levels.Despitetherebound,demandacross2021isexpectedtoremain3.2%below2019levels.Covid-relatedrestrictionsonmobilitycontinuetosuppressoildemandfortransportinthefirsthalfoftheyear,eveniftheimpactismuchlessthanayearearlier.Demandwillriseprogressivelyinthesecondhalfof2021,asvaccinationcampaignsrampupandtravelreturns.Nonetheless,oildemandisnotprojectedtoreachpre-crisislevelswithdemandinthefourthquarterof2021expectedtobe1.4mb/dlowerthanpre-crisislevels.Internationalaviation'soiluseistheslowestareatoreboundandisexpectedtobe20%below2019levelseveninDecember2021.Excludinginternationalaviation,oildemandisexpectedtoreturnto2019levelsinthelastmonthsof2021.GlobalEnergyReview2021OilAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE15IEA.Allrightsreserved.Changeinquarterlyoildemandin2020and2021relativeto2019levelsIEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Quarterlyoildemanddatainthisfigureincludebiofuelsblendedwithoilproducts.Source:IEAOMRMarch2021.Chinaistheonlymajoreconomywhereoildemandin2020wasabove2019levels,anddemandin2021isexpectedtogrowfurthertoalmost9%above2019levels.OildemandinChinafell1.3mb/dinQ1of2020asthevirushitChinaandmobilitywascurtailed;however,removalofrestrictionsandasharpeconomicreboundthroughtherestoftheyearsawoildemandreturntogrowth.WithouttheincreaseindemandinChinain2021,globaldemandwouldbeanadditional1mb/d,orafurtheronepercentagepoint,below2019levels.OildemandintheUnitedStatesisexpectedtoremainaround0.8mb/dbelow2019levels,mainlyasaresultofthecontinuedimpactofthepandemic-relatedrestrictionsduringearly2021.DemandintheEuropeanUnionremains0.4mb/dbelow2019levels,withcontinuedlockdownsexpectedtoweighheavilyon2021annualtotals.InIndia,afterfurtherlockdownsinthefirsthalfoftheyear,rapiddemandgrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyearislikelytopush2021oildemandbackonparwith2019levels.Gasolinedemandissettoincreaseby1.8mb/din2021toreach25.4mb/d,evenifitwillremain1.2mb/dbelowpre-Covidlevels.Demandissettobe2mb/dbelow2019levelsduringthefirsthalfof2021and,whiledemandshouldriseinthesecondhalfasrestrictionsareeased,itisexpectedtoremainaround500kb/dbelowpre-Covidlevels.BehaviouralchangesfromtheCovidcrisis,suchasincreasedteleworkingorgreateruseofbicyclesincities,outweighgreaterpreferenceforprivatecarsvs.publictransportincertainregions.-20%-16%-12%-8%-4%0%4%-20-16-12-8-4041Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Qmb/dOtherUSAEUIndiaChinaNetchange20202021(rightaxis)GlobalEnergyReview2021OilAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE16IEA.Allrightsreserved.Roadtransportactivityin2021relativeto2020,inselectedadvancedeconomies.IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromAppleMobility.Dieseldemandissettoreboundby1.5mb/dto28.5mb/din2021andshouldremain0.3mb/dbelow2019levels.Dieselislessimpactedbyrestrictionsonmobilitybecausetruckshaveoperatedatnear-normallevelsasdemandcontinuesforgoodsheldupduringthepandemic.NewCovidrestrictionmeasuresimplementedin2021arenotanticipatedtorestrictmanufacturingandthetransportationofindustrialgoods.Jetfuelandkerosenedemandhasbeentheoilproductmostaffectedduringthepandemic.Airtrafficisexpectedtorecoverslowlyinthefirsthalfof2021andpickupinthesecondhalfwhenvulnerablepopulationsinthedevelopedworldhavebeenvaccinated.Pentupdemandcouldpushrevenuepassengerkilometres(RPKs)upby50%y-o-y.Inthiscase,weexpecttotaljetfuelandkerosenedemandtoincreaseby0.8mb/don2020levelsin2021,areboundof17%.Despitethisgrowth,demandwouldstillremain30%below2019levels.Petrochemicalfeedstockwillbetheonlyoilsectortosurpasspre-crisislevelswithplasticsproductiondrivenbyincreasedneedsforpackagingandpersonalprotectiveequipment.WeexpectLPG,ethaneandnaphthademandtoincreaseby0.8mb/din2021(4%).Fueloildemandwillincreasebynearly0.3mb/din2021(4.5%)asitisexpectedtobenefitsfromareboundinbunkerfueldemandandhigherindustrialactivity.Mostofthegrowthwillbeforthenew,verylowsulphurfueloilintroducedbyInternationalMaritimeOrganisationregulations.-60%-30%0%30%60%JanuaryFebruaryMarchUnitedStatesCanadaUnitedKingdomEUJapanKoreaAustraliaNewZealandGlobalEnergyReview2021CoalAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE17IEA.Allrightsreserved.CoalCoaldemandexperiencedamajordeclinein2020Globalcoaldemanddeclined4%in2020,thebiggestdropsinceWorldWarII.ThemaindriverofthedeclinewaslowerelectricitydemandowingtoCovid-19restrictionsandtheresultingeconomicdownturn.Preferentialdispatchoruseofrenewablesinmanymarketssqueezedgasandcoalintheelectricitymix.Lowergaspricessawsignificantfuelswitchingawayfromcoal,particularlyintheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion,wherecoaluseforpowerfell20%and21%,respectively.Overall,declinesinthepowersectoraccountedforover40%oflowerglobaldemandin2020.TheCovid-19pandemicalsoaffectedindustrialoutput,notablysteelandcement,furtherloweringcoaldemand.Coaldemandisreboundingstronglyin2021,drivenbythepowersectorIn2021,weexpectrecoveringeconomicactivitytoreverse2020’sdeclineincoaldemand,witha4.5%increasepushingglobalcoaldemandabove2019levels.Thepowersectoraccountedforjustover40%ofthedropincoalusein2020,buttherapidincreaseincoal-firedgenerationinAsiaseesitaccountforthree-quartersofthereboundin2021.Gaspricesarealsoexpectedtorisein2021,leadingtosomeswitchingbacktocoal,notablyintheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion.Thegrowthofcoalconsumptionin2021isacontinuationofthereboundinglobalcoaldemandthatbeganinthefinalquarterof2020.WhileanexceptionalcoldsnapinDecemberinnortheastAsiawaspartlytoblameforincreasingcoaldemand,therapidgrowthofcoal-firedelectricitygenerationisareminderofcoal’scentralroleinfuellingsomeoftheworld’slargesteconomies.GlobalEnergyReview2021CoalAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE18IEA.Allrightsreserved.Coalconsumptionbyregion,2000to2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.Chinaistheonlymajoreconomywherecoaldemandincreasedin2020.Strongeconomicgrowthunderpinselectricitydemandin2021,whilepost-Covidstimulusmeasuressupportproductionofsteel,cementandothercoal-intensiveindustrialproducts.Weexpectcoaldemandtoincreasebymorethan4%in2021,keepingdemandwellabovethe2014peakandreachingthehighesteverlevelsforChina.TheChinesecoalpowerfleet(includingcombinedheatandpower,orCHP,plants)representaroundone-thirdofglobalcoalconsumption.ThefutureofbothChineseandglobalcoaldemanddependsontheChineseelectricitysystem.ElectricitydemandgrowthremainscloselylinkedtoeconomicgrowthinChina,withdemandincreasingonaone-to-oneratiowithGDP.Whatadditionalshareofelectricitydemandismetbycoaldependsonhowfasttechnologiessuchasrenewablesandnuclearcomeonline.Lastyear,despitetheCovid-19outbreak,renewablecapacityadditionsincreasedtoover100GW,largelyowingtorushestocompleteprojectsbeforeasubsidyphase-outdeadline.Becauseofacceleratingincreasesinrenewablesdeployment,coalisexpectedtomeetonly45%oftheprojected8%increaseinelectricitydemandin2021.InIndia,April2020markedthelowestpointofcoalconsumptioninmanyyearsasasignificanteconomicslowdowninthesecondhalfof2019wasfollowedbyCovidlockdowns.Theeconomicrecoverysinceledtoacontinuousreboundofcoalconsumption,witha6%increaseinthefourthquarterof2020.Highercoaldemandwasalsodrivenbyadeclineingenerationfromhydro,following2019’sexceptionallyhighoutput.OurestimateforIndiacoalconsumptionassumesa500100015002000250020002005201020152021MtoeChinaOtherAdvancedeconomiesGlobalEnergyReview2021CoalAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE19IEA.Allrightsreserved.strongeconomicreboundin2021,pushingIndianGDPfirmlyabove2019levelsanddrivingupcoaldemandbyalmost9%to1.4%above2019levels.IntheUnitedStates,coalremainsonastructuraldeclineeventhough2021isprojectedtobethefirstgrowthyearforconsumptionsince2013.RecoveringelectricityconsumptionandhighergaspricesunderpinnedincreasedcoaluseinDecember2020,thefirstmonthlyyear-on-yearincreasesinceNovember2018.Coaldemandfromthepowersectorisexpectedtoreboundby10%fromthelowsof2020,thoughthatstillshouldnotpushcoaldemandabove2019levels.Coal-firedelectricitygenerationrepresents90%ofcoalconsumptionintheUnitedStatesandhasmorethanhalvedsince2010,withdemandfallingbyone-thirdbetween2018and2020.IntheEuropeanUnion,coal-firedelectricitygenerationisdisappearingorbecomingnegligibleinanincreasingnumberofcountries.AustriaandSwedenclosedtheirlastcoalpowerplantsin2020;otherslikePortugalwilldosothisyear,andcarbonallowancescontinuetodetercoalgenerators.Germany,PolandandtheCzechRepublicaccountfortwo-thirdsofEUcoaluseforpower.InGermany,wherecoalandgascompetitionismoreintenseduetocapacityavailability,generationcostsofgasandcoalaremovinginthesamerange.Therefore,smallmovementsinfuelpricescanchangetherelativecompetitivenessofcoalandgas,andhence,ofcoaldemand.Withthisuncertaintyinmind,weexpectcoaldemandtoincreasebyonly4%in2021,mostlypushedbytherecoveryofindustrialconsumption.Thisincreaseisalongwayfromreversingthe18%declineindemandin2020.AlimitedreboundforcoalintheEuropeanUnionin2021isprimarilydrivenbyeconomics,butrecentpoliticalannouncementsimplycontinueddeclinesincoaluse.Throughout2020therewerefrequentannouncementsofgreenstimuluspackages,zeroemissionstargetsbymid-century,andplanstodownsizecoalgenerationcapacity.GlobalEnergyReview2021NaturalgasAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE20IEA.Allrightsreserved.NaturalgasNaturalgasdemanddeclinedlessthanotherfossilfuelsin2020Globalnaturalgasconsumptiondeclinedby75bcm(or1.9%y-o-y)in2020.Thisrepresentsthelargestrecordeddropingasdemandinabsoluteterms,butitwouldbeonaparwith2009inrelativeterms.Thedeclinewasconcentratedinthefirsthalfoftheyear,whenglobalgasconsumptiondeclinedaround4%y-on-y,drivenbyexceptionallymildweatherandCovid-19outbreaks.Gaswasmarkedlylessimpactedthanoilorcoaldemandin2020,andaprogressiverecoveryofgasdemandwasobservedinthethirdquarteraslockdownmeasureseased,whileseasonalelectricitydemandandcompetitivepricespushedupgasconsumption.Thisrelativeresiliencecanbepartlyexplainedbyfuelswitchinginelectricitygeneration.TheswitchwasparticularlyremarkableintheUnitedStateswheregasdemandforelectricitygenerationincreasedbyaround2%y-o-yinspiteofadecliningelectricitydemand,whileinEuropegas-firedgenerationbenefitedfromlowpricesandasharprecoveryincarbonpricesinthesecondhalfof2020.InAsia,gasforpowergrewinChina,India,andKorea.WithbigdeclinesinRussiaandtheMiddleEast,gasuseinthepowersectornonethelessaccountedforone-quarterofthedeclineingasdemandin2020,otherdeclinescamefromthebuildingsandindustrysectors,contributingrespectivelyto30%andcloseto20%oftotalgasdemanddropin2020.Gasbouncingbackin2021,butrecoveryremainsfragileGlobalgasdemandisexpectedtorecover3.2%in2021,erasingthelossesin2020,andpushingdemand1.3%above2019levels.Thisrecoveryingasdemandhasbeendrivenmainlybyfast-growingmarkets–primarilyinAsiaand,toalesserextent,theMiddleEast–andsubjecttouncertaintiesregardingindustrialreboundorfuelpricecompetitiveness.DemandintheEuropeanUnionisexpectedtoreboundtolevelsonaparwith2019.GrowthintheUnitedStatesismoregradual,withdemandnotexpectedtoreturnto2019levelsin2021.Colderthanaveragetemperaturesintheearlymonthsof2021acrossthenorthernhemisphereincreasedgasdemand.Winterstormsalsoledtosomeextremesupply-demandtensionsandpricespikes,firstinJanuaryinnortheastAsiaandthenFebruaryinGlobalEnergyReview2021NaturalgasAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE21IEA.Allrightsreserved.NorthAmerica,notablyinTexas.RisingpriceshavechallengedthepositionofgasinelectricitygenerationasseenintheUnitedStateswheredemandinthefirstquarterof2021waslowerthanthefirstquarterof2020.Acrosstheyear,highergaspricesareexpectedtokeepgasdemandintheUnitedStatescloseto2020levelsandaround2%below2019levels.IntheEuropeanUnion,highercarbonpricesprovidesomesupporttogasvis-à-viscoal;preliminarydataforthefirstquartershowan8%y-o-yincreaseingasdemandinEurope.ThepictureisverydifferentacrossdevelopingAsia,wheredemandin2021isexpectedtoincreaseby7%on2020levels,puttingdemand8.5%above2019levels.Chinaleadstheincrease,with2021demandmorethan14%(or44bcm)higherthan2019levels.Naturalgasdemandgrowthbyregionandsector,2019-2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.Theindustryandbuildingssectorsareexpectedtoleadgasdemandgrowthin2021,withindustrydemandincreasingbyalmost5%asglobaloutputandtradevolumesrecover.China,Indiaandotherfast-growingAsianmarketsaredrivingthisgrowth.Consumptionfromthebuildingssectoralsogrowsaround5%,supportedbycoldertemperaturesinQ1.Gasuseforelectricitygenerationisexpectedtogrowjust1%duetolowelectricitydemandgrowth,increasingrenewablecapacity,andtougherpricecompetitionfromcoal.Globalgasdemandin2021remainssubjecttosignificantuncertaintyregardingnotonlyelectricitydemandandindustrialproductionbutalsothepriceevolutionofgasvs.coalinkeymarketssuchastheUnitedStates,aswellasinregardtotheweatheracrossthenorthernhemispheretowardstheendof2021.-100-500501001502019-202020-212019-21bcmAsiaPacificEurasiaEuropeNorthAmericaMiddleEastRestofWorldWorldByregion2019-202020-212019-21PowerIndustryBuildingsEnergyownuseTransportOtherBysectorGlobalEnergyReview2021RenewablesAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE22IEA.Allrightsreserved.RenewablesRenewablesbuckedthetrendin2020Renewableenergyuseincreased3%in2020asdemandforallotherfuelsdeclined.Theprimarydriverwasanalmost7%growthinelectricitygenerationfromrenewablesources.Long-termcontracts,priorityaccesstothegrid,andcontinuousinstallationofnewplantsunderpinnedrenewablesgrowthdespitelowerelectricitydemand,supplychainchallenges,andconstructiondelaysinmanypartsoftheworld.Accordingly,theshareofrenewablesinglobalelectricitygenerationjumpedto29%in2020,upfrom27%in2019.Bioenergyuseinindustrygrew3%,butwaslargelyoffsetbyadeclineinbiofuelsasloweroildemandalsoreducedtheuseofblendedbiofuels.Renewablesareontracktosetnewrecordsin2021Renewableelectricitygenerationin2021issettoexpandbymorethan8%toreach8300TWh,thefastestyear-on-yeargrowthsincethe1970s.SolarPVandwindaresettocontributetwo-thirdsofrenewablesgrowth.Chinaaloneshouldaccountforalmosthalfoftheglobalincreaseinrenewableelectricityin2021,followedbytheUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnionandIndia.Renewableelectricitygenerationincreasebytechnology,countryandregionIEA.Allrightsreserved.\0100200300ChinaUSAEUIndiaRestofWorldTWhSolarPVWindHydroBioenergyOthers2020-2021byregionandsourceGlobalbyperiodandsource0%10%20%30%19/2020/2119/2020/2119/2020/2119/2020/21year-on-yeargrowth(rightaxis)GlobalEnergyReview2021RenewablesAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE23IEA.Allrightsreserved.Windissetforthelargestincreaseinrenewablegeneration,growingby275TWh,oralmost17%,whichissignificantlygreaterthan2020levels.PolicydeadlinesinChinaandtheUnitedStatesdrovedeveloperstocompletearecordamountofcapacitylateinthefourthquarterof2020,leadingtonotableincreasesingenerationalreadyfromthefirsttwomonthsof2021.Overthecourseof2021,Chinaisexpectedtogenerate600TWhandtheUnitedStates400TWh,togetherrepresentingmorethanhalfofglobalwindoutput.WhileChinawillremainthelargestPVmarket,expansionwillcontinueintheUnitedStateswithongoingpolicysupportatthefederalandstatelevel.HavingexperiencedasignificantdeclineinnewsolarPVcapacityadditionsin2020asaresultofCovid-relateddelays,India’sPVmarketisexpectedtorecoverrapidlyin2021,whileincreasesingenerationinBrazilandVietNamaredrivenbystrongpolicysupportsfordistributedsolarPVapplications.Globally,solarPVelectricitygenerationisexpectedtoincreaseby145TWh,almost18%,toapproach1000TWhin2021.Weexpecthydropowergenerationtoincreasefurtherin2021throughacombinationofeconomicrecoveryandnewcapacityadditionsfromlargeprojectsinChina.EnergyfromwasteelectricityprojectsinAsiawilldrivegrowthofbioenergy,thankstoincentives.Increasesinelectricitygenerationfromallrenewablesourcesshouldpushtheshareofrenewablesintheelectricitygenerationmixtoanall-timehighof30%in2021.Combinedwithnuclear,low-carbonsourcesofgenerationwellandtrulyexceedoutputfromtheworld’scoalplantsin2021.Shareoflow-carbonsourcesandcoalinworldelectricitygeneration,1971-2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.0%10%20%30%40%50%197119801990200020102021CoalLow-carbonSolarPVWindOtherrenewablesNuclearGlobalEnergyReview2021RenewablesAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE24IEA.Allrightsreserved.In2021,thebiofuelsmarketislikelytorecoverandapproach2019productionlevelsastransportationactivityslowlyresumesandbiofuelblendingratesincrease.Biofuelsareconsumedmostlyinroadtransportation,blendedwithgasolineanddieselfuels,andthusarelessaffectedbycontinueddepressedactivityintheaviationsector.GlobalEnergyReview2021ElectricityAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE25IEA.Allrightsreserved.ElectricityElectricitydemandElectricitydemandin2020Globalelectricitydemandfellbyaround1%in2020,withdemanddecliningmostmarkedlyinthefirsthalfoftheyearaslockdownsrestrictedcommercialandindustrialactivity.Demandwas,attimes,20-30%lowerthanpre-lockdownperiods.Comparedtothesameperiodsin2019,afterstrippingoutweathervariations,China’sdemanddroppedbymorethan10%inFebruary.TheUnitedStates,afterChinathesecond-largestglobalelectricityconsumer,experiencedadeclineofalmostthesamemagnitudeinMayduringthepeakofstay-at-homeorders.FromMarchtoApril,weeklydemandinGermany,FranceandtheUnitedKingdomdroppedmorethan15%and,inSpainandItaly,byevenmorethan25%.Similarly,Indiasawdemanddeclinemorethan20%inseveralweeksbetweenmid-MarchandtheendofApril.InJapanandKorea–whereCovid-19caseswerefewerthaninEuropeandtheUnitedStates–demanddeclinedbyaround8%inMay.Advancedeconomiesrecoveredinthesecondhalfof2020butremainedforthemostpartbelow2019levels.Someemergingmarketsanddevelopingregionsregisteredstronggrowthratestowardstheendoftheyear,especiallyChinaandIndia,whorecordedmorethan8%and6%year-on-yeargrowth,respectively,inthelastquarterof2020.Electricitydemandin2021Electricitydemandisexpectedtoincreaseby4.5%in2021,supportedbyreboundingeconomicactivityandrapidgrowthinmajoremergingeconomiessuchasChina.Inadvancedeconomies,vaccinationcampaignsagainstCovid-19areexpectedtoenabletheprogressiveliftingofrestrictionsbetweenspringandautumn.Theanticipateddemandgrowthof2.5%shouldbesufficienttopushdemandwithin1%of2019levels.IntheUnitedStates,demandisexpectedtoincreasebyaround2%,boostedbyeconomicstimulusandcoldertemperaturesduringtheearlymonthsof2021.Thisincreaseshouldpushdemandtowithin1.6%of2019levels.GlobalEnergyReview2021ElectricityAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE26IEA.Allrightsreserved.ThelargestconsumersintheEuropeanUnion–Germany,France,ItalyandSpain–areanticipatedtoremainbelow2019levels,withanincreaseofalmost3%in2021failingtofullymakeupfordeclinesof4%to6%in2020.ItissimilarinJapan,wheredemandisexpectedtoreboundonly1%from2020levels,farfromsufficienttoreversethe4%declinein2020.Demandinemerginganddevelopingeconomiesremainsonthegrowthtrajectorythatresumedinthesecondhalfof2020.ThistrajectorywillbeacceleratedbytheprojectedstrongeconomicrecoveryforChinaandIndia.Withaprojected2021GDPgrowthof9%inChinaand12%inIndia,electricitydemandisexpectedtogrowbyaround8%inbothcountriescomparedwith2020.ForChina,theprojectedincreasecomesontopof2020growth,puttingdemandin2021almost12%above2019levels.SoutheastAsiancountriesarealsoexpectedtoseeastrongreturntogrowth,withdemandincreasing5%in2021,puttingtotaldemand3%above2019levels.Changeinelectricitydemandin2020and2021byregionIEA.Allrightsreserved.ElectricitysupplyElectricitysupplyin2020Recordgrowthofrenewables–ledbywindandsolarPV,whichin2020grewby12%and23%,respectively,combinedwithadeclineinglobalelectricity-6%-3%0%3%6%9%12%ChinaIndiaNorthAmericaAfricaEuropeRestofWorldWorld2019-202020-212019-21GlobalEnergyReview2021ElectricityAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE27IEA.Allrightsreserved.demand–putfossilfuel-firedandnuclearpowerplantsinatightspotin2020.Demandfromnon-renewablesourcesdecreasedbymorethan3%.Coalwasthehardesthitamongallsourcesofelectricityin2020,down440TWh.The4.4%dropingenerationfromcoalwasthelargesteverabsolutedeclineandthelargestrelativedeclineinthepastfiftyyears.Drivenbylowgasprices,theUnitedStatesaloneaccountedforalmosthalfoftheglobalnetdecline.TheEuropeanUnionwasresponsibleforanadditional23%ofthedecline–adeclinelargelyoffsetbyincreasesingenerationfromrenewablesources.Gas-firedpowerplantsexperiencedlesserdeclinesingenerationcomparedtocoal,downonly1.6%in2020.Gaswaslessaffectedowingtocompetitiveprices,especiallyduringthemiddleoftheyear.IntheUnitedStates,wheregas-firedgenerationincreasedby2%in2020,coal-firedgenerationdroppedbyastaggering20%,or210TWh.Oilcontinueditsuninterruptedglobaldeclinesince2012,decreasingby4.4%.Electricitysupplyin2021Recentdevelopmentspromisethe20thconsecutiveyearofgrowthforrenewables-basedelectricitygenerationin2021.Expandinggenerationfromrenewablesisexpectedtoprovidejustoverhalfoftheincreaseinelectricitysupplyin2021.Withgenerationfromnuclearexpectedtoincreasebyaround2%,theremainingelectricitydemandgrowthismetbycoalandgas-firedpowerplants.Changeinelectricitygenerationin2020and2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.-50%-25%0%25%50%-500-2500250500SolarPVWindBioenergyHydroCoalGasNuclearOilTWh2019-202020-212019-21(rightaxis)GlobalEnergyReview2021ElectricityAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE28IEA.Allrightsreserved.Themajorityoftheincreaseinelectricitygenerationfromfossilfuelsislikelytobeprovidedbycoal-firedpowerplants,withtheiroutputexpectedtoincreaseby480TWh.Duetoupwardpressureongasprices,naturalgasbenefitstoonlyasmallextent(+1%).IntheUnitedStates,wherecoal-firedgenerationdroppedbyaround20%in2020,weexpectabouthalfofthislosstobereversedin2021–ascoal-to-gasswitchingisunwoundinsomepartsofthecountry.Asaresult,gas-firedgenerationfallsbyalmost80TWhin2021intheUnitedStates.Welloverhalfoftheincreaseincoal-firedelectricitygenerationin2021isanticipatedinChina.Althoughrepresentingabout45%ofadditionalglobalrenewablegeneration,aroundhalfofthe8%increaseinelectricitysupplyinChinaisprovidedbyfossilfuelsin2021,pushinggenerationfromcoalinChinaupby330TWh(or7%)on2019levels.InIndia,whichisexpectedtohavethesecond-largestabsolutedemandgrowthafterChina,70%ofadditionalelectricitydemandin2021willbecoveredbythermalgeneration–almostallfromcoal.GlobalEnergyReview2021NuclearAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE29IEA.Allrightsreserved.NuclearNuclearpowerin2020Electricitygenerationfromnuclearreactorsdecreasedbyaround4%–thelargestdeclinesincetheaftermathoftheFukushimaaccidentin2011.MajorreductionstookplaceintheEuropeanUnion(-11%),Japan(-33%)andtheUnitedStates(-2%).ThedeclineinEuroperesultedfromdepressedelectricitydemand,temporaryshutdownsforscheduledandunscheduledmaintenance,andpermanentshutdowns.InJapan,somereactorsweretemporarilyshutforworkrequiredinordertomeetnewanti-terrorismsafetystandards.NuclearpowerincreasedinChina(5%)andRussia(3%),withnewunitsbeingcommissionedduring2019and2020.InBelarusandtheUnitedArabEmirates,thefirstnuclearunitsenteredcommercialoperation,withmoreunitscurrentlyunderconstruction.Nuclearpowerin2021Nuclearpowerreboundsandincreases2%in2021,reversingonlyhalfofthedeclineinoutputthattookplacein2020.Sevennewreactorscameonlineinthesecondhalfof2020andQ12021,morethanoffsettingthethreereactorsretiredoverthesameperiod.Uptotenmorenewreactorscouldbeconnectedtothegridworldwidebytheendof2021,includingfourinChina.Despitetheincreaseinoperationalcapacityoverthecourseoftheyear,globalnuclearpowerin2021remainsslightlybelowthe2019level.Acrossadvancedeconomies,nuclearpowerincreasesslightlyin2021,withoutputremaining6%below2019levels.Nonetheless,nuclearremainsthelargestsinglesourceoflow-carbongenerationintheseeconomies.NuclearpowerintheUnitedStatesisexpectedtodeclinefurtherin2021,withfivereactorsscheduledtoberetiredduringtheyear,leavingoutputmorethan4%below2019levels.TheanticipateddeclinesintheUnitedStatesin2021offsetincreasesinotheradvancedeconomies.InJapan,theprogressiverestartofreactorsislikelytoincreasenuclearoutputby6%in2021,reversingonlyasmallfractionofthe30TWhdeclineinoutputin2020.AcrosstheEuropeanUnion,outputissettoincreasebymorethan2%in2021,dueprimarilytohigherelectricitydemandinFranceandanewreactorinSlovakia,butthisincreaseisinsufficienttomakeupforthedropin2020.Inemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,nuclearpowerissettoincreasebyover5%in2021,withnewreactorscomingGlobalEnergyReview2021NuclearAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE30IEA.Allrightsreserved.onlineinseveralcountries,ledbyChinaandcomplementedbynewreactorsinIndia,UnitedArabEmirates,PakistanandRussia.Thegrowthin2021pushesoutputfromnuclearto8%above2019levels,withemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesincreasingtheirshareofglobalnuclearoutputtoalmostone-third,upfrom29%in2019.GlobalEnergyReview2021MethodologicalnoteAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE31IEA.Allrightsreserved.MethodologicalnoteThisreleaseisbasedondataforthefirstquarterof2021(Q1)fromnumeroussources,usingdataavailableasofmid-April2021.Dataareavailableforaroundtwo-thirdsofglobalprimaryenergydemand.Ingeneral,thedatacollectedincludethelatestmonthlyIEAcountrydatasubmissionsthroughend-Februaryandend-Marchwhenavailable;otherstatisticalreleasesfromnationaladministrationsaroundtheworld;andIEAestimateswhereofficialdataaremissing.OildemanddatabycountryissuefromtherecentmarketdatacompiledforthelatestmonthlyIEAOilMarketReport,publishedon14April2021.Gasdemanddatahavebeencollectedforaroundtwo-thirdsofglobalgasdemand.DataincludeinformationfromtheEIAfortheUnitedStates,transmissionsystemoperatorsinEurope,CQPGXforChina,PPACforIndia,KOGASforKoreaandLNGimportdataasaproxyforgasdemandinseveraladditionalcountries.Coaldemanddataarederivedprincipallyfromcoal-firedelectricitygenerationinformation,withavailabledatacoveringaroundtwo-thirdofglobalcoaldemand.Datacollectedforrenewableenergyproductionin2020andQ12021werecombinedwithrenewableenergycapacityadditionsinover100countries.Daily,weeklyandmonthlyelectricitydemandandgenerationdatawerecompiledfromseveralsources,suchastheUnitedStatesEIAhourlydata,ENTSO-EhourlydataforEurope,latestmonthlysubmissionforOECDcountries,NationalLoadDispatchCentredailydataforIndia,aswellasChinaandBrazil.Collectedelectricitydemandandgenerationdatacoveraroundthree-quartersofglobalelectricitydemand.Asaresultofpossibledifferencesindatacollectionmethodologiesanddatadefinitions,real-timeanddailydatamaynotmatchthemethodologiesusedformonthly,quarterlyorannualdata.Theimpactofthepandemiconsectoralandeconomy-wideactivitywasassessedbasedonquarterlyandannualdatafromOxfordEconomics(2021)forcountriesavailable(acombinedshareofmorethan85%ofglobalGDPforquarterlydataand95%forannualdata).ThesewerecomplementedbyannualdatafromtheWorldEconomicOutlookDatabase.CO2emissionsincludeemissionsfromallusesoffossilfuelsforenergypurposes.CO2emissionsdonotincludeemissionsfromindustrialprocesses,industrialwasteandnon-renewablemunicipalwaste.CO2emissionsfrominternationalmarineandaviationbunkersareincludedattheworldlevelonly.GlobalEnergyReview2021AcknowledgementsAssessingtheeffectsofeconomicrecoveriesonglobalenergydemandandCO2emissionsin2021PAGE32IEA.Allrightsreserved.Acknowledgements,contributorsandcreditsThisstudywaspreparedbytheEnergyDemandOutlookteamintheDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooks(STO)inco-operationwithotherdirectoratesandofficesoftheInternationalEnergyAgency.ThestudywasdesignedanddirectedbyLauraCozzi,ChiefEnergyModellerandHeadofDivisionforEnergyDemandOutlook.MusaErdoganledondatamanagementandanalysis,TimothyGoodsonledonanalysisandwasleadauthor.KeycontributionsfromacrosstheIEAwerefromYasmineArsalane(leadeconomicoutlook),HeymiBahar(leadrenewables),ChristopheBarret(leadoil),PaulinaBecerraZavala(co-leadelectricity),JoelCouse(macroeconomics),TrevorCriswell(renewables),AmritaDasgupta(India),MathildeDaugy(monthlyelectricitydata),Jean-BaptisteDubreuil(leadnaturalgas),CarlosFernandezAlvarez(leadcoal),LuisFernandoRosa(oil),JuliaGuyon(Chinaandhistoricaldata),StefanLorenczik(co-leadelectricity),GergelyMolnar(naturalgas),AkosLosz(naturalgas),LaszloVarro(leadmacroeconomics),BrentWanner(leadelectricitysupplyandnuclear).GianlucaTonoloprovidedessentialsupport.JethroMullenandGregoryViscusicarriededitorialresponsibility.ThereseWalshwasthecopy-editor.ThanksgototheIEA’sCommunicationsandDigitalOfficefortheirhelpinproducingthereportandwebsitematerials,particularlytoJadMouawad,JethroMullen,GregoryViscusi,AstridDumond,ChristopherGully,GraceGordon,MerveErdil,RobStone,TanyaDyhinandThereseWalsh.ThispublicationreflectstheviewsoftheIEASecretariatbutdoesnotnecessarilyreflectthoseofindividualIEAmembercountries.TheIEAmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,inrespectofthepublication’scontents(includingitscompletenessoraccuracy)andshallnotberesponsibleforanyuseof,orrelianceon,thepublication.Unlessotherwiseindicated,allmaterialpresentedinfiguresandtablesisderivedfromIEAdataandanalysis.Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.IEA.Allrightsreserved.IEAPublicationsInternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.orgContactinformation:www.iea.org/about/contactTypesetinFrancebyIEA-April2021Coverdesign:IEAPhotocredits:©ShutterStock