全球电力市场报告2022（英）-IEAVIP专享VIP免费

下载本文档

阅读 146
格式 pdf
大小 5.57 MB
约118页
2023-04-18
收藏
点赞(0)
海报
举报

January 2022

Electricity Market Report

PAGE | 3

Abstract

Electricity Market Report – January 2022

Abstract

The year 2021 placed exceptional demands on electricity markets

around the world. Strong economic growth, combined with more

extreme weather conditions than in 2020, including a colder than

average winter, boosted global electricity demand by more than 6%

–the largest increase since the recovery from the financial crisis in

2010. The fast rebound in overall energy demand strained supply

chains for coal and natural gas, pushing up wholesale electricity

prices. Despite the impressive growth of renewable power,

electricity generation from coal and gas hit record levels. As a

result, the global electricity sector’s annual carbon dioxide

emissions leaped to a new all-time high after having decreased for

the previous two years.

Building on our analysis of these recent events, the January 2022

edition of the IEA Electricity Market Report presents our forecasts

for demand, supply and emissions in global electricity markets

through 2024. While renewables are set to meet the vast majority of

the increase in global electricity demand in the coming years, this

trend would only result in a plateauing of emissions from electricity

generation. That is insufficient for the power sector to fulfil its critical

role as a leading force in the decarbonisation of economies around

the world.

/118

下载本文档

文本预览下载提示常见问题

January2022ElectricityMarketReportPAGE3AbstractIEA.Allrightsreserved.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022AbstractTheyear2021placedexceptionaldemandsonelectricitymarketsaroundtheworld.Strongeconomicgrowth,combinedwithmoreextremeweatherconditionsthanin2020,includingacolderthanaveragewinter,boostedglobalelectricitydemandbymorethan6%–thelargestincreasesincetherecoveryfromthefinancialcrisisin2010.Thefastreboundinoverallenergydemandstrainedsupplychainsforcoalandnaturalgas,pushingupwholesaleelectricityprices.Despitetheimpressivegrowthofrenewablepower,electricitygenerationfromcoalandgashitrecordlevels.Asaresult,theglobalelectricitysector’sannualcarbondioxideemissionsleapedtoanewall-timehighafterhavingdecreasedfortheprevioustwoyears.Buildingonouranalysisoftheserecentevents,theJanuary2022editionoftheIEAElectricityMarketReportpresentsourforecastsfordemand,supplyandemissionsinglobalelectricitymarketsthrough2024.Whilerenewablesaresettomeetthevastmajorityoftheincreaseinglobalelectricitydemandinthecomingyears,thistrendwouldonlyresultinaplateauingofemissionsfromelectricitygeneration.Thatisinsufficientforthepowersectortofulfilitscriticalroleasaleadingforceinthedecarbonisationofeconomiesaroundtheworld.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE4IEA.Allrightsreserved.TableofcontentsTableofcontentsExecutivesummary.........................................................................................5Globaloverview...............................................................................................7Demand,supplyandemissions................................................................8Economicrecovery..................................................................................15Fossilfuels...............................................................................................18Wholesaleprices.....................................................................................27Climateprotectionpoliciesandimpact....................................................30Regionalperspective.....................................................................................39AsiaPacific..............................................................................................40Americas..................................................................................................59Europe.....................................................................................................68Eurasia....................................................................................................80MiddleEast..............................................................................................87Africa.......................................................................................................94Annex............................................................................................................103ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE5ExecutivesummaryIEA.Allrightsreserved.ExecutivesummaryPAGE6ExecutivesummaryIEA.Allrightsreserved.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022ExecutivesummaryAftersmalldropin2020,globalelectricitydemandgrewby6%in2021.Itwasthelargesteverannualincreaseinabsoluteterms(over1500TWh)andthelargestpercentagerisesince2010afterthefinancialcrisis.AroundhalfoftheglobalgrowthtookplaceinChina,wheredemandincreasedbyanestimated10%.Globalelectricitydemandwasboostedbyarapideconomicrecovery,combinedwithmoreextremeweatherconditionsthanin2020,includingacolderthanaveragewinter.Theindustrialsectorcontributedthemosttodemandgrowth,followedbythecommercialandservicessectorandthentheresidentialsector.Coalmetmorethanhalfoftheincreaseinglobaldemand.Coal-firedelectricitygenerationreachedanall-timepeak,growingby9%,thefastestsince2011,propelledbytheexceptionaldemandandcoal’scostcompetitivenessinsomemarketscomparedtogas.Renewablesgrewstrongly,by6%,despitegrowthbeinglimitedbyunfavourableweatherconditions(inparticularforhydropower).Gas-firedgenerationgrewby2%,whilenuclearincreasedby3.5%,almostreachingits2019levels.Intotal,CO2emissionsfromelectricityrosebycloseto7%,takingthemtoarecordhigh.Theincreaseddemandforfossilfuelscombinedwithsupplyconstraintsresultedinscarcitiesandhighenergyprices.DuetoparticularlyhighpricesforgasinEuropeandits20%shareinthegenerationmix,averagewholesaleelectricitypricesinthefourthquarterof2021weremorethanfourtimesashighastheir2015-2020average.During2022-2024,weexpectrapidlygrowingrenewablestoalmostmatchmoderatedemandgrowth.Weanticipateaverageannualelectricitydemandgrowthof2.7%,buttheCovid-19pandemicandhighenergypricesadduncertaintytothis.Record-breakingrenewablesgrowth(up8%peryearonaverage)issettoservemorethan90%ofnetdemandgrowthduringthisperiod.Weexpectnuclear-basedgenerationtogrowby1%annuallyduringthesameperiod(meeting4%ofglobaldemandgrowth).Fossilfuelgenerationissettostagnateoverthenextthreeyears.Asaconsequenceofslowingelectricitydemandgrowthandsignificantadditionsofrenewablepowercapacity,fossilfuel-basedgenerationisseenbroadlyflatinthecomingyears.Weexpectcoal-firedgenerationtofallslightlyasphase-outsanddecliningcompetitivenessrelativetonaturalgasinmarketsliketheUnitedStatesandEuropeareoffsetbygrowthinChinaandIndia.Gas-firedgenerationisforecasttogrowannuallybyaround1%.Today’spolicysettingsareinsufficienttocutemissions.Inourforecast,powersectoremissionsremainaroundthesamelevelfrom2021to2024,whereastheyneedtostartdecliningsharplytomeettheIEA’sNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario.Thisunderlinesthemassivechangesneededintermsofenergyefficiencyandlow-carbonsupplyfortheelectricitysectortofulfilitscriticalroleindecarbonisingthebroaderenergysystem.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE7GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.GlobaloverviewElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE8GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Demand,supplyandemissionsElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE9GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Afterastrongincreasein2021,demandgrowthslowsinthecomingyearsAftersmalldropin2020,globalelectricitydemandgrewbyaround6%in2021.Itwasthelargesteverannualincreaseinabsoluteterms(over1500TWh)andthelargestrelativerisesincetherecoveryfromthefinancialcrisisin2010.Arapideconomicrecovery,combinedwithmoreextremeweatherconditionsthanin2020,includingacolderthanaveragewinter,boosteddemand.Weestimatethattheindustrialsectorcontributedthemosttodemandgrowth,followedbythecommercialandservicessectorandthentheresidentialsector.Duetothefastrecoveryin2021,wehaverevisedourexpectationsforelectricitydemandgrowthin2022downfrom4%to3%.Thisissimilartotheaveragegrowthrateforthe10yearsbeforetheCovid-19pandemic.Demandgrowthcontinuesstronglyforthreemajorreasons.First,weexpectacontinuedeconomicrecovery.Second,reboundeffectswillcontinuein2022becausehealthprotectionmeasuresinplaceattimesin2021dampeneddemand.Andfinally,theexpectedeasingoftheenergycrisis,whichresultedinsupplyshortagesandprohibitivelyhighenergypricesinthefourthquarterof2021,willsupportgrowth.However,thedevelopmentofenergypricesandtheCovid-19pandemicarethemainuncertaintiesforthedemandoutlook.Weexpectaslowdowninglobalelectricitydemandgrowthduring2023(2.6%increase)and2024(slightlyabove2%increase)asreboundeffectsrunoutandenergyefficiencymeasuresstartshowingeffects.Themajorityofsupplygrowthintheyears2021to2024isexpectedinChina,accountingforaroundhalfofthenettotalincrease,followedbyIndia(12%),Europe(7%)andtheUnitedStates(4%).Chinafacedsomesupplydifficultiesatthebeginningofthefourthquarterof2021duetocoalshortages.Afterdemandinthefirstthreequartersoftheyearincreasedbyalmost11%comparedtothesameperiodin2020,weexpectcloseto10%growthforthefullyear.Fortheyears2022-2024weexpectdemandgrowthtoslowtoanaverageof4.5%(werefertothecompoundaverageannualgrowthrate(CAAGR)whentalkingaboutaveragegrowth)duetoefficiencyimprovementsandslowereconomicgrowth.DemandinIndiadeclinedby7%fromApriltoMay2021duetosurgingCovid-19cases.ConsumptionquicklyrecoveredinJuneandreachednewall-timehighsinJulyandAugust.Temporarycoalsupplyshortages,peakingatthebeginningofthefourthquarterof2021,didnotpreventstrongannualgrowthoverall,estimatedat10%year-on-year.InEuropeandtheUnitedStates,demandin2021recoveredtoreachsimilarlevelstothoseseenin2019beforethepandemic–supportedinbothregionsbyhigherweather-drivendemand.Forthecomingyearsweexpectslowaveragegrowth,withenergyefficiencymeasurescounteringincreasingelectrification.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE10GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.GlobaldemandgrowthisconcentratedinemerginganddevelopingAsiaGlobalchangeinelectricitydemand,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-1000-50005001000150020002015201620172018201920202021202220232024Changeinelectricitydemand(TWh)ChinaUnitedStatesIndiaEuropeOthersNetchangeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE11GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Coalcamebackin2021,butrenewablesdominatemedium-termsupplygrowthTheyear2021wasexceptionalforelectricitymarketsduetothestronggrowthinelectricitydemand,unfavourablerenewableconditionsandincreasinggasprices.Totalthermalelectricitygenerationincreasedbyalmost6%(980TWh)in2021,thehighestgrowthsince2010.Afterdecliningin2019and2020,coal-firedelectricitygenerationincreasedbyaround9%andreachedanewall-timehigh.Coalservedmorethanhalfoftheadditionaldemandin2021,growinginabsolutetermsfasterthanrenewableenergyforthefirsttimesince2013.Gas-firedelectricity,hamperedbyhighgasprices,increasedgloballyby2%,offsettingthedeclinein2020.Low-carbongenerationincreasedby5.5%(555TWh)in2021,with83%ofitbeingrenewable.Despiteunfavourableweatherconditions,absolutegrowthinrenewableelectricitygenerationin2021wasthehighesteverinabsoluteterms(up6%).Nucleargrewbyaround3.5%toreachalmostthelevelof2019.Theoutlookfor2022to2024showsaquitedifferentpicturefromthatseenin2021.Assumingweatherconditionsreturntolong-termaverages,weexpectrenewablestoberesponsibleforthevastmajorityofthesupplyincreaseinthecomingyears,growingonaverageby8%peryear.By2024renewableelectricitycouldprovidemorethan32%oftheworld’selectricitysupply(from28%in2021).Nuclearelectricitygenerationisforecasttogrowonaverageby1%between2022and2024,mostlysupportedbynucleargenerationgrowthintheAsiaPacificregion.Intotal,weexpectthelow-carbonshareoftotalgenerationtoincreaseto42%(from38%in2021).Althoughalmoststagnatingfrom2022to2024(growingonaverageby0.2%annually),weexpectfossilfuelsstilltoproduce58%oftotalelectricitygenerationin2024,downfrom62%in2021.Despiteagrowingnumberofzeroemissionspledgesandphase-outplansforunabatedcoal,weexpectcoal-firedelectricitygenerationtoprovide34%ofglobalgenerationin2024,downfrom36%in2021.Afterthesteepincreasein2021,weanticipatecoal-firedgenerationtoremainflatuntil2024.Afterreachingaroundpre-pandemic2019generationlevelsin2021,weseegas-firedelectricitygrowingatanaverage1%annualpaceuntil2024.Themajorityofthisgrowth,however,isexpectedin2023,whencurrentforwardsindicateareturnofgaspricestolowerlevels.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE12GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Ofallelectricitysources,coal-firedpowersawthelargestannualgrowthin2021Globalchangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-1000-50005001000150020002015201620172018201920202021202220232024Changeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)NuclearCoalGasOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchangeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE13GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Globalpowersystememissionsjumpedin2021;expectedtoplateauduring2022-2024Afterdecliningin2019and2020,globalelectricitysectoremissionsgrewbycloseto7%andreachedanewall-timepeakin2021.Coalwasthemaindriverofthisincreasein2021,accountingforover800MtofCO2emissionsgrowth.Theslowerdemandgrowthandcontinuedincreaseoflow-carbongenerationafter2021limitsemissionsgrowthtosignificantlylessthan1%annuallyfrom2022to2024,ascombinedgas-andcoal-firedgenerationemissionsincreaseslowly.By2024emissionsfrompowergenerationreachover13GtofCO2.Inourforecast,powersectoremissionsremainaroundthesamelevelfrom2021to2024,whereastheyneedtostartdecliningsharplytomeettheIEA’sNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario.Thisunderlinesthemassivechangesneededintermsofenergyefficiencyandlowcarbonsupplyfortheelectricitysectortofulfilitscriticalroleindecarbonisingthebroaderenergysystem.Theemissionsintensityofglobalpowergenerationgrewby1%in2021,thefirstgrowthsince2011.Weexpectittodeclineannuallyonaverageby2%during2022to2024,aslow-carbonsourcescoverthemajorityofadditionaldemandduringthattime.Althoughtheemissionsintensitybetween2021and2024declinesin78%ofallcountries,representing95%ofglobalconsumption,themagnitudeofreductionsvarieswidelyacrossdifferentregions.Regionalevolutionofglobalpowersystememissionsintensity,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.010020030040050060070080090020152017201920212023CO₂intensity(gCO₂/kWh)OthersEuropeIndiaUnitedStatesChinaWorldElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE14GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Coal-firedpowergenerationwasthemaincauseoftheemissionsincreasein2021Changeinelectricitygenerationemissionsbysource,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-600-400-200020040060080010002015201620172018201920202021202220232024Changeinemissions(MtCO₂)CoalGasOthernon-renewablesNetchangeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE15GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.EconomicrecoveryElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE16GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Divergingeconomicrecoveryexpectedfor2021Theglobaleconomyrecoveredsignificantlyin2021afterasteepdeclinein2020.InOctober2021,theInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)estimatedglobalGDPgrowthof5.9%for2021,followedby4.9%in2022,3.6%in2023and3.4%in2024.ComparedwithitsApril2021estimate,thiscorrespondstoslightlylowergrowthfor2021(down0.1percentagepoints)andhighergrowthin2022(up0.5).Thedownwardadjustmentofthegrowthestimatefor2021hadseveralreasons,includingCovid-19surgesinlow-incomecountriesandsupplydisruptioninadvancedeconomies.Varyingvaccineroll-outsandfiscalsupportlevelsaffecttheanticipatedlevelsofeconomicgrowthinindividualcountries.Highenergypricescouldalsohaveimpactsonmacroeconomicindicatorsinseveralcountries.InOctobertheWorldBankissuedanalertonthenear-termrisksofglobalinflationandtheadverseeffectongrowth,particularlyforenergy-importingcountries.TheIMFalsowarnedthatenergypricesashighasinOctober2021couldimplyaglobaleconomicgrowthreductionof0.3percentagepointsin2021and0.5percentagepointsin2022.FortheUnitedStates,theIMFexpected6%GDPgrowthin2021,lowerthantheupliftassumedintheApril2021editionofthisreport.Thedownwardadjustmentrelatesmainlytosupplydisruptions,decreasedconsumptioninthethirdquarteranduncertaintiessurroundingthenationaldebtceiling.For2022,a5.2%increasefollowedbyonaverage2%growthin2023to2024isexpected.Theeuroarea’seconomywasestimatedtogrowby5%in2021and4.3%in2022(beforeslowingdowntobelow2%in2023and2024),asactivitycontinuestoreboundinparallelwiththevaccineroll-out.However,supplyshortages,amongotherfactors,havenecessitateddownwardrevisionsto2021’sgrowthestimatesforsomecountries,comparedwiththeApril2021forecast.TheUnitedKingdomfollowsasimilarpatternthantheeuroarea.ChinaandIndiaarestillshowingstrongsignsofrecovery,withanestimatedGDPincreaseof8%(China)and9.5%(India)for2021,andabove5%(China)andabove6%(India)inthefollowingyears.However,thefulleconomicimpactofenergyandsupplyshortagesisyettobeseen.TheIMFexpectsJapan’sGDPtoreturntoaboutthe2019levelby2022andeconomicgrowthtodeclinefromabove3%in2022tobelow1%in2024Sub-SaharanAfricacontinuesitseconomicrecovery,withforecastGDPgrowthratesof3.7%for2021,3.8%for2022andaround4%in2023and2024,relatedtothepositiveoutlookforcommodityexportingcountries.However,somecountriesarefacingupwardinflationarypressurerelatedtofoodsupplyshortages.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE17GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.TheeconomiesofChinaandIndiaareexpectedtogrowstronglyinthecomingyearsGDPassumptionsbycountryandregion,2020-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:ThebarsrepresentannualchangesinGDPrelativetothepreviousyear.Thedotsshowaccumulatedchangesrelativeto2019.Source:BasedonInternationalMonetaryFund(October2021),WorldEconomicOutlookDatabase.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%202020212022202320242020202120222023202420202021202220232024202020212022202320242020202120222023202420202021202220232024202020212022202320242020202120222023202420202021202220232024UnitedStatesEuroareaUnitedKingdomJapanChinaIndiaRussiaBrazilSouthAfricaAdvancedeconomiesEmerginganddevelopingeconomiesRealGDP,annualchange(bars)andaccumulatedchangerelativeto2019(dots)GDPrelativeto2019ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE18GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.FossilfuelsElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE19GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Gasandcoalpricessurgedinthesecondhalfof2021,raisingthermalgenerationcostsNaturalgasandcoalpricessurgedtomulti-yearhighsinthesecondhalfof2021,causedbyatightsupply–demandsituation.Gasandcoaldemandwerehigherthanexpected,asunforeseenweather-relatedeventscontributedtohigherconsumption,alongsidethestrongeconomicrecovery.Onthesupplyside,bothgasandcoalfacedconstraints,includingheavymaintenanceandunplannedoutages.Thetightsummermarketinthenorthernhemisphereledtosluggishbuild-upofgasandcoalinventories,whichprovidedfurtherupwardpressureonpricesinthesecondhalfof2021.IntheUnitedStates,HenryHubnaturalgaspricesmorethandoubledcomparedto2020toaverageUSD4.6/MBtuinthesecondhalfof2021–theirhighestlevelforthisperiodoftheyearsince2008.Totalsystemdemand(includingexports)outpacedproductiongrowth,supportinggasprices.Coalpricesremainedmorestable:fuelcostsforcoal-firedgenerationincreasingbylessthan6%inthesecondhalfof2021comparedtothesameperiodin2020.Thisincreasedthecost-competitivenessofcoal-firedgenerationvis-à-visgas-firedpowerplants,resultinginsubstantialgas-to-coalswitching.Duringthe2022-2024period,improvingsupplyavailabilityisexpectedtoputdownwardpressureongasprices,withHenryHubaveraging12%belowits2021levelsaccordingtoforwardcurvesasofearlyJanuary2022.Nonetheless,coal-basedgenerationremainsmorecompetitivethangas,comparedtothe2018-2020period.InEurope,gaspricesontheTTFsoaredtoall-timehighsinthesecondhalfof2021assupplystruggledtokeepupwithhighdemand.Coalpricesfollowedsuit,althoughrisinglesssharply.DespiterecordhighcarbonpricesinboththeEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedKingdom,highgaspricessupportedgas-to-coalswitching.ForwardcurvesasofearlyJanuary2022suggestgaspricesaveraging5%belowtheir2021levelsduringthe2022-2024period,improvingthecost-competitivenessofgasvis-à-viscoal-firedpowerplants.Thehighgas,coalandemissionallowancepricesintheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedKingdomdroveupthegenerationcostsofthermalpowerplantsandplacedupwardpressureonelectricityprices.InJapanandKorea,oil-indexedLNGpricesroselessstronglythaninotherregionsinthesecondhalfof2021,whilecoalpricessurgedtoall-timehighs.Thisimprovedthecompetitivepositionofgas-firedpowerplants.AccordingtoforwardcurvesasofearlyJanuary2021,coal-firedpowergenerationissettoregainitscost-competitivepositionoverthemediumterm,coalpricesaveraging10%belowtheir2021levelsduring2022-2024.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE20GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.ImprovingsupplyavailabilityisexpectedtoeasegasandcoalpricesinthemediumtermFuelcostsofcoal-andgas-firedpowerplantsincludingemissioncosts,2018-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:Coalrangereflects33-45%efficiency;gasrangereflects43-55%efficiency.Duetothelargegeographicareascoveredineachregion,costscandifferbetweenandevenwithincountriesandshouldthereforebeinterpretedasgeneraltrends.UnitedStates:naturalgaspricesincreasedsignificantly(exceedingUSD15/MBtu)inFebruary2021duetoconstraintsupply.They-axisiscuttoincreasetheclarityofthelong-termtrend.Sources:UnitedStates:basedonEIA(2021),STEODecember2021,pricetrendsbeyond2021fornaturalgasbasedonHenryHubandforcoalbasedonAppalachiancoal.EuropeanUnion:naturalgaspricesTTF;coalpricesCIFARA;emissioncostsEUETS.JapanandKorea:naturalgaspricesareoil-indexedLNGprices;coalpricesareJapanmarkerprices.Latestupdate:5January2022.0510152025303540452018201920202021202220232024Coal0510152025303540452018201920202021202220232024Fuelcosts(USD/MWhel)UnitedStatesGas0501001502002503002018201920202021202220232024Coal0501001502002503002018201920202021202220232024EuropeanUnionGas01020304050607080901002018201920202021202220232024Coal01020304050607080901002018201920202021202220232024JapanandKoreaGasHistoricalOutlookHistoricalOutlookHistoricalOutlookElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE21GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.DemandgrowthandtightcoalsupplyledtopowershortagesinChinaandIndiaThefirsthalfof2021sawmultipleelectricitysecurityevents,includingtheTexaspowercrisisinFebruary,supplyshortagesinJapanandChina,andlarge-scaleoutagesinPakistanandChineseTaipei.Subsequently,LebanonsufferedacompleteblackoutinearlyOctober2021duetoadieselsupplyshortageforthecountry’sthermalpowerplants,afterhavingsufferedreducedpoweravailabilityforseveralmonths.ChinaandIndiawerebothsubjecttoelectricitysupplyshortagesinSeptemberandOctoberof2021,mainlyaffectingindustrialconsumers.Theprincipalfactorsbehindtheseshortageswererapidlygrowingdemandandinterruptionstocoalsupply,bothdomesticandinternational.IndustrialconsumptioninChinawasfurtheraffectedbypowercutsinitiatedtomeetthegovernment’s“dualcontrol”targetsthatlimittheemissionsintensityandenergyintensityofGDPattheprovincelevel,andbytheeconomiclossesincurredbycoalgeneratorsduetohighfuelpricesincombinationwithelectricitypricelimits.Towardstheendof2021,supplyissuesinbothcountrieseased.StrongeconomicrecoveryandhightemperaturesboosteddemandElectricitydemandinChinaandIndiaincreasedsignificantlyin2021astheireconomiesrecoveredfromtheCovid-19pandemic.Itwasfurtheramplifiedbyhighsummertemperatures.Respondingtotheexceptionallyrapidglobaleconomicrecovery,industrialelectricitydemandgrewstronglyinbotheconomies.Forexample,itgrewby12%duringthefirstthreequartersof2021inChina.Theindustrialsectorrepresents60%ofChina’selectricitydemandandalmost40%ofIndia’s.Chinaexperiencedhighersummertemperaturesthanusual,particularlyinSeptember,whenthemonthlycoolingdegreedaysexceededaveragevaluesfor2010-2020by30%.Increasedcoolingdemandaddedpressuretoanalreadystressedsystem.Intotal,electricitydemandinbothcountriesgrewbyabout10%in2021,reachinghistoricalmonthlydemandpeaksinJuly(China)andAugust(India).CoalmarketstighteneddomesticallyandgloballyChinahasseenasurgeinbusinessespurchasingdieselgenerators,seekingalternativestoprovidethemissingelectricity.InIndiasomedistributioncompaniesandindustrialconsumers,whichhadalreadycontractedtobuypowerdirectlyfromgeneratorsthatthenshutdownduetolackofcoalstocks,resortedtobuyingelectricityonthepowerexchangeinstead,atpeakpricesthatintroducedfurtherfinancialstress.Additionally,sincecoalsupplyhasbeenprioritisedforpowerplants,industrialcoalconsumershavefacedfurtherlimitedsupplyandincreasedprices.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE22GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.ThetightnessoncoalmarketshasstronglyaffectedbothChinaandIndia,whichasof2020reliedoncoalformorethan60%andmorethan70%oftheirelectricitygenerationrespectively.Domesticcoalproductionwasaffectedbytherainyseasonin2021,whenheavyrainincoal-producingprovinceslikeShanxiinChinaandaparticularlyheavymonsoonperiodinIndiaaffectedboththeoperationoflocalminesandthetransportofcoaltopowerplants.DomesticproductioninChinahasbeenfurtheraffectedbyearliermineclosures.Globalfactorshaveexacerbatedthesituation.Highgaspricesinternationallyhavecausedgas-to-coalswitchinginseveralpowermarketsaroundtheglobe,pushingupcoaldemandandpricesinthesecondhalfof2021.Additionally,meteorologicaleventssuchasfloodsinIndonesiahavelimitedtheavailabilityofcoalimports.Together,highcoalpricesandlimitedimportsincreasedthedependencyonlocalcoalsources.Additionally,coalstocksatpowerplantswerenotadequatelybuiltupbeforethemonsoonseasoninIndia.Thisresultedinextremelylowstocks,withmorethan80%ofIndia’scoal-firedpowerplantsreachingcriticallevelsinOctober,withlessthanaweekofcoalsupplyremaining.Highfuelprices,combinedwithregulatedtariffsforpower,ledseveralChinesepowerplantstostopoperations,aselectricityproductionwasnolongerprofitable.PowercutsmainlyaffectedindustrialdemandDuetothefuelshortages,powersupplydidnotmatchthesteepdemandgrowth,leadingtosupplyinterruptionsinChinaandIndiainSeptemberandOctober.Industrialconsumersfacedrollingblackoutsinseveralprovincesandstatesofbothcountries.InChina’snortheast,theprovinceofLiaoningissuedaleveltwoshortagealertonseveralconsecutivedays,indicatingpowershortageequivalentto10-20%oftotaldemand.SimilarshortageswereregisteredinsouthernGuangdong,China’ssecond-largestprovincebyelectricityconsumption.Whilesupplytoresidentialconsumerswasprioritised,incertainprovincessuchasLiaoning,shortagesaffectedresidentialconsumersaswell.InIndia,Punjabexperiencedrollingblackoutsofuptoninehoursatatimeduetotheshutdownofthreepowerplantsfromalackoffuel.ThestateofRajasthanwasforcedtointroduceloadsheddingforindustrialandresidentialconsumerseveninurbanareaslikeJaipurandJodhpur,withsomeremoteareasundergoingupto12hoursofsupplydisruption.Biharexperiencedpowercutsofmorethan10hoursperday.OtherstatessuchasGujarat,TamilNaduandKarnatakahavealsobeenthreatenedbyloadsheddingduetoinsufficientgenerationfromthermalpowerplants.ThesupplyshortageinIndiaregisteredasaCategory3eventontheIEAElectricitySecurityEventScale(ESES),whichisbasedontheshareofcustomersaffectedmultipliedbythedurationoftheElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE23GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.event.India’sNorthernRegionwasthemostseverelyaffectedbythesupplyshortage,andratedasCategory4.RapidresponsesbyauthoritiesToalleviateshortagesandstabilisepowersupply,inthesecondhalfofOctobertheChinesegovernmentauthorisedseveralpreviouslyclosedcoalminestoreopenandnewminestostartproduction.Italsoincreasedcoalproductiontargets,cappedcoalpricesandallowedgreaterfluctuationsinwholesaleelectricityprices.Previouslypricesforcoal-firedelectricitywereallowedneithertoriseabove10%nordropbelow15%oftheregionalbaseprice;thiscaphasbeenextendedto20%inbothdirectionssincemid-October,andhasbeencompletelyremovedforenergy-intensiveconsumers.MeasurestakeninIndiainclude:theprioritisationofcoalsupplyforpowerplantsoverotherindustrialproducers;publicationofguidelinesforefficientoperationofpowerplants;divertingtheproductionofcoalfromcaptivemines;establishmentofaCoreManagementTeamtoensureefficientmanagementofcoalstocksandtheirdistribution;theblendingoflocalandimportedcoal;andgovernmentappealstoreducetheuseofelectricity.ElectricitySecurityEventScaleratingsfor2021electricityshortageeventsIEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:ESESratingisbasedontheshareofcustomersaffectedinthenamedregionmultipliedbythedurationoftheevent.RecentsupplydisruptionsinChinaarenotincludedduetoalackofdetaileddata.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonCPPAPowerPurchasePriceForecast;EIAOpenData;POSOCO;Reuters;SouthChinaMorningPost.0.010.1110100ESESratingChineseTaipeiIndiaTexasIndia(NorthernRegion)Category1<0.1Category20.1-1Category31-10Category410-24Category5>24ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE24GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.InOctober2021,80%ofIndia’scoal-firedplantswerefacingcriticalcoalstoragelevelsCoalstockavailabilityatpowerplantsinIndia,December2018-November2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:WeusedtheCentralElectricityAuthoritydefinitiontocategorisethestatusofcoalplantstocks:forpitheadplants,criticalis<5daysofcoalrequirement,supercriticalis<3days;fornon-pitheadplants,criticalis<7days,supercriticalis<4days;fornon-pitheadplantslocatedmorethan1500kmfromlinkedcoalmine,criticalis<9days,supercriticalis<5days.Dailycoalrequirementisbasedonthehigheroftherequirementfortheaverageactualconsumptionoftheplantinthelast7days,andtherequirementfortheinstalledcapacityoftheplantat55%loadfactor.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonCEA,DailyCoalReport.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0510152025303540455012-201804-201909-201901-202006-202011-202003-202108-2021Shareofplantswithcritical/supercriticalstocksAverageremainingcoalstocks(days)MonthRemainingcoalstocksShareofplantsElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE25GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Highgaspricesin2021causedfuelswitchingfromgastocoalintheUnitedStatesandEuropeCoal-firedpowerdeclinedduring2017-2020intheUnitedStates(down36%)andEurope(down38%)duetoemissionsreductionmeasures,morerenewablesandagrowingcostadvantageofgasovercoal.In2021therelativeincreaseingaspricesversuscoalledtoareversalincoal’sdecline,manymarketsexperiencingfuelswitchingandconsequentlyhigheremissions.WeestimatethatUScoal-firedgenerationgrewby19%andEurope’sby11%comparedwith2020,whileUSgas-firedgenerationfellby3%andEurope’sgrewmildly(up4%).Althoughweexpectthistobetemporaryandcoalgenerationtofallagaininthecomingyearsasgaspricesmoderate,thespecialcircumstancesin2021offeragoodopportunitytoanalysegenerationflexibility.Theabilitytoswitchbetweenfuelscanbeanindicatoroftheresilienceofasystem.Wecomparedtheshareofgasincombinedgasandcoalgenerationwiththedifferenceingenerationcost,subtractingthecoalgenerationcostfromthatofgassothatthecostdifferencereflectshowmuchmoreexpensivegasisthancoal(orcheaper,ifnegative).Ourfocusisonfourregionswithrelevantamountsofbothcoal-andgas-firedgeneration:theMidwestandMid-AtlanticregionsoftheUnitedStates,andGermanyandtheNetherlandsinEurope.UsingweeklydataforbothUSmarketsanddailydatafortheothers,weanalysedtheyears2019-2021,capturingawiderangeofgasprices,withlow(in2020),high(in2021)andmid-rangevalues(in2019).Ouranalysisshowspricechangeshavingsignificanteffectsinallregionsandyears.Basedonalinearregressionanalysis,weestimatedpercentagepointreductionsinthegasshareforaUSD1/MWhincreaseintherelativecostofgas-firedgeneration.InGermany,theestimateddropinthegas-firedshareofgenerationis0.5percentagepointsforeveryUSD1/MWhincreaseintherelativecostofgas,intherangewheregaswasbetweenUSD25/MWhcheaperandUSD50/MWhmoreexpensivethancoal-firedgeneration.Abovethisrange,theimpactwaslesspronounced,potentiallyduetomust-rungenerationbyindustrialpowerplantsorheatproductionobligationsofgas-firedco-generationplants.IntheNetherlands,thegas-firedsharevariedbetween29%and100%ofcombinedgasandcoalgeneration.Theestimateddropinthegasshareis0.8percentagepointsforeveryUSD1/MWhincreaseintherelativecostofgasintherangewheregaswasbetweenUSD25/MWhcheaperandUSD50/MWhmoreexpensive.Forhigherrelativegascosts,thegassharedroppedless.CostdifferencesbetweengasandcoalgenerationintheUnitedStatesaresmallerthaninEuropeandtheeffectofacostchangeappearstobehigher.AUSD1/MWhincreaseintherelativecostofgassawthegassharedroponaverageby0.7percentagepoints(Midwest)and1.3percentagepoints(Mid-Atlantic).ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE26GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Thesplitbetweengas-andcoal-firedgenerationinGermany,theNetherlandsandtwoUSmarketsshowsastrongcorrelationwiththegenerationcostdifferentialGasshareofcombinedgasandcoalgenerationrelativetothegenerationcostdifference(gasminuscoal),2019-2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:Thegastocoalpowergenerationcostdifferenceiscalculatedforeverydateavailablebysubtractingthecoal-firedelectricitygenerationcostfromthegas-firedcost,includingtheassociatedcarboncostsforeachfuel(whereappropriate).Fortheconversionofthermalenergytoelectricity,weassumeanefficiencyof42%forcoal-firedgeneratorsand50%forgas.Theanalysiswasmadewithdatafrombetween1January2019and8October2021.Sources:Naturalgasprices:TTF(forGermanyandtheNetherlands),ChicagoCitygategashub(forUSMidwest),TETCO-M3gashub(forUSMid-Atlantic);coalprices:CIFARA(forGermanyandtheNetherlands),USIllinois(forUSMidwest),USNorthernAppalachia(forUSMid-Atlantic);emissioncosts:EUETS;powergenerationdata:ENTSO-E(2021),TransparencyPlatform,andEIA(2021),OpenData.0%20%40%60%80%100%-50050100150200GasshareinthegasandcoalgenerationmixGasminuscoalgenerationcosts(USD/MWh)Netherlands2019202020210%20%40%60%80%100%-50050100150200GasshareinthegasandcoalgenerationmixGasminuscoalgenerationcosts(USD/MWh)Germany2019202020210%20%40%60%80%100%-100102030GasshareinthegasandcoalgenerationmixGasminuscoalgenerationcosts(USD/MWh)USMidwest2019202020210%20%40%60%80%100%-100102030GasshareinthegasandcoalgenerationmixGasminuscoalgenerationcosts(USD/MWh)USMid-Atlantic201920202021ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE27GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.WholesalepricesElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE28GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Wholesaleelectricitypricescontinuedtorisein2021…Soaringgasandcoalpriceswerethemaindriverfortherapidriseinwholesaleelectricitypricesinmanycountriesin2021.Ourpriceindexformajorwholesaleelectricitymarketsofmajoradvancedeconomiesalmostdoubledcomparedwith2020(up64%fromthe2016-2020average).Wholesalepricesinthefourthquarterof2021inFrance,Germany,SpainandtheUnitedKingdomwerethreetomorethanfourtimeshigherthanthefourthquarter2016-2020average.Thiswasmainlycausedbythesteepriseingasprices,alongsideincreaseddemand,andEUETSpricesmorethandoublingin2021comparedwith2020.TheNordicregionalsosawasurge,wholesalepricesrisinginthefourthquarterof2021almostthreetimescomparedwiththefourthquarteraverageof2016-2020,andoverseventimeshigherthanthesameperiodin2020.However,averagepricesofEUR96/MWhinthefourthquarterof2021wereonlyabouthalfashighasinWesternEurope.WholesalepricesgrewlessstronglyintheUnitedStatesthaninEurope,partlyduetoasmallerincreaseofnaturalgasprices.Averagepricesinthefourthquarterof2021werealmost75%abovethefourthquarteraverageof2016-2020.Afterasupplyshortage-relatedpeakinthefirstquarterandasubsequentdropinthesecondquarterof2021,Japan’swholesalepricesroseagaininthesecondhalfof2021.Averagefourthquarter2021pricesexceededthe2016-2020averageby80%.InAustralia,coal-firedgenerationoutagesandincreaseddemandresultedinasubstantialyear-on-yearwholesalepriceincreaseof174%inthesecondquarterof2021(up196%fromthepreviousquarter).Thiswasfollowed,incontrasttotheothercountriesandregionsanalysed,byapricedecreaseof50%fromthesecondtothefourthquarterof2021.Thedeclinewassupportedbymilderweatherandincreasedavailabilityofrenewableenergyanddispatchablegeneration.TheshareoftotalgenerationtradedinIndiaviashort-termpowerexchangeshasincreasedconsiderablyinrecentyears.However,at6-7%ofsupplyitisstillsignificantlysmallerthaninmorematuremarketssuchasEurope.Inthesecondhalfof2021pricesgrewby70%year-on-year.Themaincausewasacoalsupplyshortage,as80%ofcoal-firedpowerplantshadlessthanoneweekoffuelstocksbymid-October.Theneedtocoverthedeficitincoal-firedpowerledtoanincreaseinspotexchangevolumes,whichrosealmost50%intheAugust-Octoberperiodcomparedwiththepreviousthreemonths.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE29GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.…andinmanymarketssignificantlyexceededlevelsinpreviousyearsQuarterlyaveragewholesalepricesforselectedregions,2016-2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:Priceindexaggregatesthewholesaleelectricitypricechangesacrossthedepictedregions.Itiscalculatedasthedemand-weightedrollingaverageoftherespectivecurrentandpreviousthree-quarterindexedpricesofthedepictedwholesaleelectricitymarkets.ThepricesforAustraliaandtheUnitedStatesarecalculatedasthedemand-weightedaverageofalltheregionalmarkets.Sources:IEAanalysisusingdatafromRTE(France)andRedEléctrica(Spain)–bothaccessedviatheENTSO-ETransparencyPlatform;Bundesnetzagentur(2021),SMARD.de;Elexon(2021),Electricitydatasummary;AEMO(2021),Aggregatedpriceanddemanddata;AER(2021),Wholesalestatistics;EIA(2022),Short-TermEnergyOutlookJanuary2022;Nordpool(2021),HistoricalMarketData;IEX(2021),AreaPrices.Latestupdate:12January2022.0100200300400500600700800Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4201620172018201920202021Indexedelectricityprice(Q12016=100)GermanyFranceUnitedKingdomSpainUnitedStatesJapanAustraliaNordPoolIndiaPriceindexPeakcausedbysupplydisruptionsduetoanextremeweatherevent,increasingaverageregionalpricesinERCOTtooverUSD600/MWhandinSPPtooverUSD250/MWhPeakcausedbyasurgeindemandduetoanextremecoldweathereventandlowgas-firedgenerationinJapanElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE30GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.ClimateprotectionpoliciesandimpactElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE31GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.ThedecarbonisationoftheelectricitysectorisacentralcomponentofcurrentclimatepoliciesGovernmentsareincreasinglyfocusedontacklingthethreatofclimatechange,makingclimatepoliciesanimportantelementshapingtheelectricitysectorintheshort,mediumandlongterm.Oneimportantindicationofthedirectionsetoutbyclimatepolicyiseachcountry’snationallydeterminedcontribution(NDC)undertheParisAgreement.Theselayoutnationaltargetsandpoliciesforgreenhousegas(GHG)mitigation,andaresubmittedeveryfiveyears,mostmitigationtargetsreportedincurrentNDCshavinga10-yeartimehorizon.SomeNDCsincludecomponentsthatareconditionalonreceivinginternationaltechnical,financialandcapacity-buildingsupport.Incertaincases,domesticpoliciesaremoreambitiousthanpoliciesreflectedinthefirstroundofNDCssubmittedbycountriessince2015,whileinothersdomesticpoliciesappearinsufficienttofulfilNDCtargets.NewNDCssubmittedasof24November2021includemoreambitiousGHGreductionobjectivesfromcountriessuchastheUnitedStates(targetof50-52%by2030,vs26-28%by2025previously,below2005levels),Japan(upgradedtargetof46%below2013levelsin2030,vs26%previously)andSouthAfrica(targettokeepemissionsintherangeof350-420MtCO2-eqby2030,vs398-614MtCO2-eqpreviously).ChinaalsosubmittedanupdatedNDC,reflectingnewclimatemitigationtargetsannouncedin2020,suchaspeakingemissionsbefore2030andachievingcarbonneutralitybefore2060,whilethetargettoreduceemissionsintensityperunitofGDPby2030increasedfrom60-65%toover65%belowthe2005level.TheelectricitysectorisacentralcomponentofallNDCs.Asindicatedbythe2021NDCSynthesisreportoftheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC),by12October2021allthe165latestavailableNDCs–representing192Parties–covertheelectricitysector,including116neworupdatedNDCs.TheseNDCscovered94%oftotalglobalGHGemissionsin2019.OfallNDCs,86%mentiontargetsforhighersharesofrenewableenergygenerationby2030.Theelectricitysectorisalsoakeycomponentoflong-termdecarbonisationgoals,asseeninthelong-termlowGHGemissiondevelopmentstrategies(LT-LEDS),whichPartiesareencouragedtosubmitundertheParisAgreement,aswellasindomesticnetzerolegislation.Long-termstrategiesaimtogeneratecertaintyforinvestmentinmitigation,includingintheelectricitysector.Asof24November2021,45countriesandtheEuropeanUnionhavecommunicatedLT-LEDStotheUNFCCC,coveringover65%ofglobalenergy-relatedCO2emissionsin2019.Moreover,18countriesandtheEuropeanUnionhavelegislatedtoachieveaElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE32GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.netzeroemissionstargetby2050orearlier,coveringover15%ofglobalenergy-relatedCO2emissionsin2019.Allthesecommitmentsalsocovertheelectricitysector.Withinoverallnetzerotargets,somecountriesannouncedthattheirelectricitysectorwillbenetzerobeforeorin2030,suchasNorway(alreadynetzero),Denmark(by2027)andAustria(by2030).LatertargetdateshavebeensetbytheUnitedStates,NewZealand(bothby2035)andGermany(by2045).Governmentsaredeployingasuiteofpolicymeasurestodecarbonisetheireconomiesandelectricitysectorsinlinewithbothmedium-andlong-termclimateambitions.Theseincludespecificplanstophaseoutunabatedcoalatdifferenttargetdates,someintheshortterm(e.g.Franceby2022)andothersinthelongerterm(e.g.Germanyby2038atthelatestandChileby2040).Theyalsoincludearangeofcarbonpricingmeasures.However,evenifimplementedinfull,theywouldstillbeinsufficienttoalignwiththe1.5°CParisAgreementgoal.ElectricitysectorCO2emissionscoveredbydifferentclimatecommitmentsandnumberofcountrieswithelectricitytargetsIEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:EmissionsareCO2emissionsfromfuelcombustionforelectricityasamainactivityandauto-producerelectricityplantsonly.NZE=netzeroemissiontargetsthataresetinlaw,inproposedlegislation,inapolicydocumentandinoralpledges.NDCs=nationallydeterminedcontributions.LT-LEDS=long-termlowGHGemissiondevelopmentstrategies.020406080100120140160180200012345678910GlobalemissionsLatestNDCsLT-LEDSNZENZEInlawEmissionscoveredbycommitmentsNumberofcountriesElectricitysectoremissions(GtCO2)TotalOthersOilGasCoalNumberofcountrieswithaspecifictargetElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE33GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Newcarbonpricingmechanismshavebeenintroducedin2021Carbonpricingisoftenpartofasuiteofclimatepoliciestargetingcleanenergytransitions.Itcomprisescarbontaxes,anemissionstradingsystem(ETS),orhybridsofthetwo.Bytheendof2021therewere65carbonpricinginstrumentsinplace,ofwhichsixnewones,allcoveringtheelectricitysector,wereintroducedduringtheyear.ParticularlynotablewasthelaunchofChina’snationalETS,whichisthelargestCO2emissionstradingschemeintheworld.ItinitiallycoversChina’scoal-andgas-firedpowerplants,representing4.5GtCO2oraround40%ofChina’senergysectorCO2emissionsin2020.Itisscheduledtoexpandtosevenadditionalsectorsoverthenextfiveyears.Coal-andgas-firedpowerplantsreceiveallowancesbasedontheirgenerationoutputandpredeterminedbenchmarks,whichencouragesthemtoreducetheiremissionsintensitybelowtheirbenchmark,forexamplebyimprovingtheirefficiency.However,theETScurrentlydoesnotsetacapontotalemissions,whichcouldriseinabsoluteterms.Allowancesarecurrentlyallocatedforfree,andhavebeentradedataroundCNY40-60/tCO2(aroundUSD8/tCO2)asofOctober2021.In2021theEuropeanUnionputforwardawiderangeofreformstoitsEUETSaspartofitsFitfor55package,toalignwiththenew2030EUemissionstarget.Reformproposalsincludeamoreaggressivedeclineoftheemissionscap,reinforcementofthemarketstabilityreservetostrengthenresiliencetofutureexogenousshocks,andmoretargetedcarbonleakagerules.Theyalsonotablyproposedacarbonborderadjustmentmechanism(CBAM),whichwouldsubjecthigh-carbonimports,includingelectricity,toabordertax.This,combinedwithseveralotherfactors,sawEUETSallowancepricessoartoattimeslevelsabove80EUR/tCO2inthefourthquarterof2021,reachingrecordhighs.Inearly2021theUnitedKingdom,afterleavingtheEUETS,launcheditsemissionstradingscheme,coveringthepower,industryandaviationsectors.Itfeaturesa“transitionalauctionreserveprice”setatGBP22/tCO2,whichfunctionsasanallowancepricefloor,andhasanemissionscapdecliningeachyear.Asoftheendofthefourthquarterof2021,UKallowancestradedatapremiumrelativetotheEUETS.ThethirdphaseoftheKoreaETSbeganin2021,withimportantreforms.Itcoverssixsectors,includingheatandpower.ThegovernmentintroducedatemporaryminimumpriceofKRW12900/tCO2(aroundUSD11/tCO2)onthesecondarymarkettocounteractadeclineinallowancepricesin2020and2021duetoasurplusofallowances.In2021variousgovernmentstookinitialstepstointroducecarbonpricinginstrumentsintheirelectricitysector.UkraineannounceditsintentiontolaunchanETSin2025,aimingtolinkitwiththeEUETSinthefuture.IndonesiaoperatedavoluntaryemissionstradingtrialElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE34GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.initspowersectorfromMarchtoAugust2021,andisconsideringanationalframeworkforcarbonpricing,potentiallyincludinganETSalongsideacarbontaxsettostartin2022.Brazilisintheprocessofdefiningmechanismstointegrateenvironmentalbenefitsintheelectricsector,aswellasregulatingthecarbontradingmarket.Internationalcarbonmarketsalsoreceivedaboostin2021withagreementatCOP26ontheframeworkrulesforimplementingArticle6oftheParisAgreement.Article6coversaccountingforbilateralexchangeofunitsbetweencountries,aswellasacentralisedcarbonmarketmechanismundertheUNFCCC.ThelatterwouldbeasuccessortothemechanismoftheKyotoProtocol,inwhichtheelectricitysector(andrenewableenergyinparticular)wasthesectorthatissuedthemostcredits.Itislikelythatlow-carbonoptionsintheelectricitysectorwillcontinuetobeanimportantcomponentoffutureinternationalcarbonmarkets.Priceofselectedcarbonpricinginstrumentscoveringthepowersector(asofApril2021,averagelevels)IEA.Allrightsreserved.ChinaETSandUKETSwerelaunchedin2021;theirdepictedpricesaretheresultsofthefirstauctionforeachscheme.Allotherpricesaretheaveragepriceovertheyear.Note:RGGI=RegionalGreenhouseGasInitiative(UnitedStates).Sources:WorldBankCarbonPricingDashboard,ICAP.010203040506070ChinaEuropeanUnionKoreaNewZealandSwitzerlandUnitedKingdomCaliforniaRGGIQuébecChileColombiaJapanSingaporeSouthAfricaBritishColumbiaETSCarbontaxCarbonprice(USD/tCO₂-eq)20202021ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE35GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.CommitmentstoendtheuseofunabatedcoalarepilingupCoalphase-outcommitmentshavemushroomedacrosstheworldinrecentyears.BetweentheParisAgreemententeringintoforcein2016andtheendof2021,21countriesusingunabatedcoalforelectricitygenerationhadsetphase-outdatesbefore2040.Fourofthesehavealreadycompletedtheirphase-outs:Belgium(2016),Austria(2020),Sweden(2020)andPortugal(2021).Ofthe17remainingcountries,12arefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheothersareCanada,Chile,Israel,theUnitedKingdomandNewZealand.However,thesecountriesaccountedforonly3%ofglobalcoalpowergenerationin2021,andalmosthalfofthatcamefromGermany(phase-outifpossibleby2030,atthelatestby2038).ThePoweringPastCoalAllianceisacoalitionestablishedbyCanadaandtheUnitedKingdomtoacceleratethetransitionawayfromcoalforpowergeneration.AsofDecember2021,48nationalgovernments,representingcloseto4%ofestimatedglobalcoal-firedgenerationin2021,48subnationalgovernmentsand69organisationshavejoined.DuringtheUNClimateChangeConferenceCOP26inGlasgowinNovember2021,acoalitionof45countriesplustheEuropeanUnion,5subnationalgovernmentsand26organisationssignedaGlobalCoaltoCleanPowerTransitionStatement,acknowledgingcoalpowergenerationasthesinglebiggestcontributortoclimatechange.Thestatementincludesfourcommitments,ofwhichthemostrelevantforcoalpoweristoscaleuptechnologiesandpoliciestotransitionawayfromunabatedcoalpowergenerationinthe2030sinmajoreconomies(orassoonaspossiblethereafter)andinthe2040sglobally(orassoonaspossiblethereafter).Thesignatoriesincluded23countrieswithoutanypre-existingphase-outcommitment,amongthemmajorcoaluserslikeIndonesia,thePhilippines,Poland,SouthKorea,andVietNam.Intotal,thesigningpartiesaccountedfor12%ofglobalcoal-firedelectricityin2021.Inthelead-uptoCOP26,China,Japan,KoreaandtheG20committedtoendtheprovisionofinternationalpublicfinancefornewunabatedcoalpowergenerationabroadbytheendof2021.Additionally,severalbanksandfinancialinstitutionsmadecommitmentsatCOP26toendfinancingofunabatedcoal.Althoughmanyofthesecommitmentshaveatargetyearbeyondourforecastingperiod,whichendsin2024,manyregionsarealreadyshowingadecreasingtrendincoal-firedgeneration.IntheEuropeanUnion,duetoamixofphase-outpoliciesandcarbonpricing,coal-firedelectricityhalvedbetween2015and2020.Despitetheincreasein2021,weexpectafurtherdropto40%of2015levelsintheEuropeanUnionby2024.ForCanada,weforecastcoaluseforpowertodropbymorethan80%duringthattime.IntheUnitedKingdom,weanticipatecoaltodropbelow1%inthegenerationmixin2024,downfrommorethan20%in2015.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE36GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.Countriescomprisingalmost12%ofglobalcoal-firedgenerationhavecommittedtophase-outsGlobalcoal-firedgenerationsharewithphase-outcommitmentsIEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:Sharesarebasedonestimatedcoal-firedgenerationin2021.Allcountrieswithashareofatleast0.5%ofglobalcoal-firedelectricitygenerationareshownindividually.AstheEuropeanUnionsignedtheGlobalCoaltoCleanPowerTransitionstatement,weincludedallmembercountries,evenifnotallofthemsignedthestatementindividually.Lastupdate:November2021.0%2%4%6%8%10%12%Countrieswithfixedcoalphase-outdatesMembercountriesofthePoweringPastCoalAllianceCountrieswhosignedtheGlobalCoaltoCleanPowerTransitionStatementShareofglobalcoal-firedelectricitygenerationin2021OtherGlobalCoaltoCleanPowerTransitionStatementcountriesOtherPoweringPastCoalAlliancecountriesOthercountrieswithfixedcoalphase-outdatePhilippinesKazakhstanVietNamPolandIndonesiaKoreaGermanyElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE37GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.ClimatechangeisagrowingthreattoelectricitysystemsTheworld’selectricitymarketsareexperiencingthegrowingimpactsofclimatechange.Extremeweathereventssuchasheatwaves,coldsnaps,droughtsandfloodshavebecomemorefrequentandintense,threateningthestabilityandreliabilityofelectricitysupply.TexasintheUnitedStatesexperiencedtwomajorelectricitycrisesin2021duetoextremetemperatures.ExceptionallycoldweatherinFebruaryreducedgassuppliesandtheavailabilityofgas-firedandotherpowerplants,andliftedelectricitydemandto20%abovetheexpectedwinterpeak,causinganelectricityoutageforfourdays.Fourmonthslater,Texasfacedaheatwavebringingfurthersupplyproblems.TheTexaspowergridauthorityhadtocallfordemandresponsemeasureslikeraisingthermostatset-pointtemperaturesandavoidingtheuseoflargeappliancestoeasegridstrain.Extremepatternsofprecipitationposeanincreasingthreattoelectricitymarkets.InJuly,heavyrainfallcausedtheworstfloodingindecadesinGermany,cutelectricityto200000households,anddamagedtheenergyinfrastructureinthewestofthecountry.HeavyrainsandmudslidesinnorthernChinahitamajorcoalproductioncentreinOctober,complicatingeffortstotacklepowershortagesinthecountry.Whilesomecountriessufferedfromintenserainfall,othersexperiencedtheopposite.BrazilcalledfordemandresponsemeasuresinSeptembertoconservepowerduetonear-recordlowwaterlevelsatcrucialdams.Californiawasforcedtoshutdowna750MWhydroelectricpowerplantatLakeOrovilleinAugustforthefirsttimeduetolowwaterlevels.IransufferedfrompoweroutagesduetodroughtsandhighelectricitydemandinJuly.Extremeweathereventsarelikelytobemorefrequentinthefutureduetoclimatechange,althoughtheimpactsmayvarybetweencountries.TheIPCCWorkingGroupIreportprojectsanincreaseinthefrequencyandintensityofextremeheat,heavyprecipitationanddroughtsinsomeregions,aswellasagrowingprevalenceofintensetropicalcyclones.Sinceclimatechangeisexpectedtoraisetheserisks,buildingtheclimateresilienceofelectricitymarketsbecomesincreasinglyimportant.Climate-resilientelectricitysystemssupportthecleanenergytransitionby:addressingtheadverseimpactsofclimatechangeonrenewableenergy;promotingsustainabledevelopmentbyensuringreliableenergyservices;boostingelectricitysecuritybyincreasingsystems’abilitytocopewithclimate-drivendisruption;andreducingtherisksassociatedwithclimatedisasters.InJune2021theIEAreleasedtheClimateResiliencePolicyIndicator,aninitialmeasuretoassessthelevelofclimateresilienceofeachcountrybycomparingthelevelofclimatehazarditfaceswithitspolicypreparedness.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE38GlobaloverviewIEA.Allrightsreserved.TheriskofclimatehazardsvariessignificantlybetweencountriesAggregatedlevelofclimatehazardforIEAmemberandassociationcountriesIEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:Theoverallassessmentofclimatehazardforeachcountryisbasedontheaggregationofthelevelsinfourareas(temperature,flood,droughtandcyclone).Temperaturereferstolong-termchangesinaveragetemperatures.Foreachcountry,theaveragesurfacetemperaturefortheperiod2000-2020isextractedfromtheWeatherforEnergyTracker,whilethelevelofclimatehazardisassessedbasedontheindicators“Physicalexposuretoflood”,“Droughtprobabilityandhistoricalimpact”and“Physicalexposuretotropicalcyclone”developedbytheINFORMRiskIndex.Ifthehazardlevelforeachareaislow,itscores0;ifmedium,itscores1;ifhigh,itscores2.Ifthesumofthescoresforthefourclimaterisksisbelow2,theoverallassessmentofclimatehazardisdescribedaslow;between2and4itismedium-low;between4and6itismedium-high;andfrom6itishigh.AdetailedmethodologyoftheindicatorisdescribedontheClimateResiliencePolicyIndicatorpage.Source:IEA(2021),ClimateResiliencePolicyIndicator.01234567IndiaMexicoChinaAustraliaHungaryIndonesiaSouthAfricaThailandUnitedStatesBrazilJapanKoreaAustriaCzechRepublicEstoniaGermanyGreeceMoroccoPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSpainSwitzerlandTurkeyBelgiumCanadaDenmarkFinlandFranceItalyNetherlandsNewZealandSwedenIrelandLuxembourgNorwaySingaporeUnitedKingdomHighMedium-HighMedium-LowLowLevelDroughtCycloneFloodTemperatureElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE39RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.RegionalperspectiveElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE40RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.AsiaPacificElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE41RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Demandisgrowingfasterthanrenewables–butthegapisclosingDespitetheeconomicslowdowncausedbytheCovid-19pandemicreducingelectricitydemandgrowth,theAsiaPacificregionnonethelessmaintainedpositiveyearlygrowthratesduring2019and2020.In2021weestimatedemandtohavegrownby8%fromalowof2%in2020,mostlydrivenbyChinaandIndia(bothuparound10%),thelargestpowersystemsintheregion.Afterthereboundin2021,mostcountriesintheregion(withtheexceptionofJapan)areexpectedtoseecontinueddemandgrowthupto2024,withtheregionalgrowthratestabilisingataround4%peryearonaverage,slightlybelowpre-pandemiclevelsbutabovetheglobalaverageofbelow3%.Acrosstheregion,electricitydemandgrowthisbeingdrivenbybothindustrialdevelopmentandincreasedutilisationandelectrificationofcooling,cookingandmobility,amongotherenduses.Onthesupplyside,2021sawalargeincreaseincoal-firedgeneration,whichgrewby8%toreachover8000TWh.Thisincreasewasledbysignificantgrowthincoal-firedgenerationinbothChinaandIndiainlinewitheconomicrecoveryfromthepandemic,despitecoalshortageslatein2021.Althoughcoal-firedgenerationgrewthemostinabsolutetermsin2021,renewablessawthehighestgrowthrate(up10%).ThistrendisagainledbyChinaandIndia,butisalsoseeninmostcountriesoftheregionandisexpectedtocontinue,reflectingongoingrenewablesdeploymentacrosstheregion.Withslowerelectricitydemandgrowthoutto2024(onaverage4%peryearbetween2022and2024),aroundtwothirdsofthenetdemandincreaseintheregionisforecasttobecoveredbyrenewables,followedbycoal(covering27%ofdemandgrowth)andnuclear(7%).PowergridsintheAsiaPacificregionareonaveragethemostcarbonintensiveintheworld,duetotheirrelianceonfossilfuelsandparticularlycoal.WithanestimatedCO2intensityofover580gCO2/kWhin2021,theregionis28%abovetheworldaverageofabout460gCO2/kWh.Whiletheexpansionofrenewableenergygenerationintheperiodto2024meanstheregion’scarbonintensityisexpectedtosteadilydeclineatapaceclosetotheworld’saverage,thisreductionisnotsufficienttopreventanincreaseintotalemissionsovertheperiod.By2024weexpecttheaveragecarbonintensityofgenerationinAsiaPacifictofalltoapproximately550gCO2/kWh.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE42RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.AsiaPacific’selectricitydemandgrowthstabilisesafterareboundin2021Developmentofelectricitydemand,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2015201820212024201520182021202420152018202120242015201820212024201520182021202420152018202120242015201820212024AsiaPacificChinaIndiaJapanKoreaAustraliaSoutheastAsiaElectricitydemandgrowthDemandDemandforecastElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE43RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Renewablesmeetalargeshareofnewdemand,causingemissionsintensitytodecline,buttotalemissionsstillgrowChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024Developmentofemissionsintensity,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-2000200400600800100012002015201620172018201920202021202220232024AsiaPacificChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchange010020030040050060070080090020152017201920212023CO₂intensity(gCO₂/kWh)AsiaPacificChinaIndiaJapanKoreaAustraliaSoutheastAsiaElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE44RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.ChinaTheindustrialandcommercialdemandforpowerinChinarecoveredstronglyfromtheCovid-19pandemicin2021.Growthacrossalldemandsectorsisexpectedtoresumepre-pandemictrendsduring2021-2024–slowingpositivegrowthyear-on-year.Theonlyexceptionisroadtransport;aselectrificationacceleratestomeetChina'sgoaltoendthesaleofnewinternalcombustionenginepassengercarsby2035,electricitydemandforroadtransportgrowssignificantlyoutto2024,althoughstartingfromarelativelylowbase.Despiteadiversifyinggenerationmix,China'selectricitysystemremainslargelycoal-dominated.In2021coalmadeup64%ofpowergeneration,followedbyhydropowerwithashareof16%,windat7%andnuclearat5%.By2024weexpecttheshareofcoalinthemixtodeclineto59%.Renewableenergysourcesaresettomeetthemajorityofadditionaldemandduring2022-2024(over70%),whilecoalmeets25%oftheincrement.GenerationcapacitycontinuestoincreaseinChinatosatisfygrowingdemandforelectricity.Despitethephase-outofcentralgovernmentsubsidiesforonshorewindandsolarPV,bothtechnologiescontinuetobedeployedatarapidpaceandareexpectedtoreachacumulativecapacityofmorethan930GWby2024,upfromcloseto530GWin2020.Toaccompanythedeploymentofthesevariablerenewableenergysources,Chinaannouncedanambitioustargettoinstallmorethan30GWofnewnon-hydroenergystoragecapacityby2025,upfrom3.3GWin2020.Althoughcoalconsumptionwillbelimitedunderthe14thfive-yearplanfor2021-2025,anddespitethecoalsupplyshortagesinautumn2021,newcoal-firedunitswillcontinuetobebuilt.Neitherthecoalshortagesnorthenationalemissionstradingschemelaunchedon16July2021,wherethepricerangeisCNY40-60/tCO2(aroundUSD8/tCO2),areexpectedtocontributesignificantlytoswitchingawayfromcoalgeneration.Gasunitsarealsosettoplayagreaterroleinprovidingsystemflexibilityandcompensatingforthevariabilityofwindandsolargeneration.Therefore,theshareofelectricityfromnon-fossilsourcesisexpectedtoincreaseonlyacoupleofpercentagepointsovertheforecasthorizon.Oncepoliciesfollowthroughonthenationalpledgetobecarbon-neutralby2060,fasterchangeinthegenerationmixmightbeachieved.Thepowersectorreformsinitiatedin2015introducedwholesalemarketsbasedonmarginalpricingandincentivisecross-provincialpowertrade.Recentnationalinitiativesareexpectedtofurthercurbtheneedfornewfossil-basedpowercapacity.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE45RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.ElectricitytariffsinChinaremainlargelyregulated.On-gridtariffsforindustrialandcommercialconsumersofelectricityfromcoal-firedgenerationcontainavariablepartthatfloatswiththecoalprice.Initially,thevariableelementwasneitherallowedtoriseabove10%nordropbelow15%oftheregionalbaseprice.Followingthecoalpricesurgesduringsummer2021,thisresultedinnetlossesforcoalpowerplants.InOctobertheauthoritiesdecidedtoallowthevariablepartofthetarifftofloatupto20%abovethepricebenchmark(upfrom10%).Chinaisalsolookingintoimplementingtime-of-usetariffsformostretailconsumerstoshiftdemandawayfrompeaktimesandlimittheneedforadditionalcapacity,althoughthetimelineforthisdevelopmenthasnotyetbeenannounced.SinceSeptember2021thetwogridoperatorsinChina,StateGridCorporationofChinaandChinaSouthernPowerGrid,havebeenpilotinggreenelectricitytradinginresponsetodemandforcleanelectricityfromcorporations.Underthisscheme,corporationsbidanenergypriceanda“greenpremium”onthepowerexchanges,andestablishdirectcontractswithrenewableproducers1monthto10yearsaheadofdelivery.Thecontractedrenewableunitsarethengivenprioritydispatch.ElectricitygenerationmixinChina,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015201620172018201920202021202220232024GenerationmixNuclearCoalGasOthernon-renewablesRenewablesElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE46RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.ContinueddemandgrowthinChinaissupportedbyaslowlychangingelectricitymixChangeinelectricitygenerationinChina,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-200-10001002003004005006007008002015201620172018201920202021202220232024ChinaChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchangeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE47RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.IndiaAfteramorethan2%declineinelectricitydemandinIndiaduring2020duetotheCovid-19pandemic,2021sawareboundwithgrowthofestimated10%.Thistookdemandtolevelshigherthanbeforethepandemic,despitetheoutbreakofnewCovid-19variantsinMarch-June.Over2022-2024weexpectannualdemandgrowthtoremainabovepre-pandemiclevelsataround6.5%peryear.WhileprogresstowardsuniversalelectricityaccessinIndiahaslongbeenamaindriverforincreasesindemand(risingfrom76%in2010to98%in2019),weexpectcurrentandfuturedemandlevelstobedrivenbygrowthintheindustrialandresidentialsectors.TheMakeinIndiagovernmentinitiativewillcontinuetopropelelectricitydemandgrowthintheindustrialsectorbypromotinglocalmanufacturing.Additionally,per-capitaelectricitydemandinIndiaisstillbelowtheglobalaverageandthereforequalityofserviceimprovementsareexpectedtofurtherdriveelectricitydemandgrowththroughendusessuchascooking,cooling,andmobility–despitethepositiveimpactofinitiativessuchastheUnlockingNationalEnergyEfficiencyPotentialstrategicplan.WhileelectricmobilityuptakeinIndiaisstillnascent,electricvehiclenumbersareexpectedtoincreasewithpolicysupport.InJune2021theIndiangovernmentannouncedtheextensionofitsFasterAdoptionandManufacturingofElectricVehiclesinIndia(FAME)PhaseIIbytwoyearstoMarch2024andtheNationalInstitutionforTransformingIndia(NITIAayog)releaseditsHandbooktoGuideEVChargingInfrastructureinIndiainAugust2021.Bothinitiativesaimtoacceleratetheadoptionofelectricvehiclesbyprovidingeconomicincentives,aswellasguidelinesforimprovingassociatedinfrastructure.India’selectricitymixremainslargelycoal-dominated.In2021coalmadeup74%ofpowergeneration,followedbyrenewableswithashareof20%.By2024weforecastcoal-firedgenerationtoaccountfor70%oftheelectricitymix,andrenewablesfor22%.2021sawasignificantincreaseincoal-firedgeneration(up13%)aftercontractionsin2019and2020drivenbyeconomicslowdown,aheavymonsoonseasonin2019thatincreasedhydrogeneration,andtheCovid-19pandemic.AsIndia’sdemandforelectricitycontinuestogrow,theexpansionofgenerationcapacityacceleratesfrom2022onwards.Whileweexpect48%ofnewdemandtobemetbycoal-firedgeneration,low-carbonsourcesprovideabouthalfoftheadditionalsupply.Newrecordsforrenewablecapacityadditionareexpectedin2021and2022,principallywindandsolarPV.Consequently,renewablesprovide35%oftheincrementaldemand,withnuclearlargelyaccountingforthebalance.Drivenbystateandcentralauctions,aswellasatargetof450GWofinstalledrenewablecapacity,renewablegenerationisexpectedtoincreaseby30%by2024relativeto2021.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE48RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.AttheCOP26inGlasgowinNovember2021,Indiapledgedtoreachnetzeroby2070.However,despitetargetsforreducingtheemissionsintensityofGDPandfor40%ofgenerationcapacitytobenon-fossilfuelled,anddespitethecoalsupplyshortagesduringautumn2021,newcoal-firedplantsarestillbeingbuilt.Coal-firedcapacityisexpectedtocontinuegrowinginthenearfuture.AccordingtothedraftNationalElectricityPolicy2021,theMinistryofPowerconfirmsthatcoalwillcontinuetoprovideasignificantcontributiontoelectricitygeneration.AsofNovember2021Indiahadsevennuclearreactorsunderconstructionwithatotalgrosscapacityof5.2GW.Weexpectnucleargenerationtoseeasustainedincreaseinthecomingyears,surpassinggasfrom2022asthethird-largestcontributortogeneration,aftercoalandrenewables.TheIndianMinistryofPoweriscurrentlystudyingthedevelopmentofmarket-basedeconomicdispatch,andpresentedadiscussionpaperonthetopicforcommentsinJune2021.Furtherdevelopmentofpowermarkets,andparticularlytheimplementationofmarket-basedeconomicdispatch,canfurthertheparticipationofrenewableenergygenerationintheIndiansystembyintroducingmeritorderdispatchandimprovedbalancingfromreservesbeingsharedacrossstates,amongotherimprovements.MonthlyelectricitysupplyinIndia,2019-2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromCentralElectricityAuthority,MinistryofPower,GovernmentofIndia,NationalPowerPortal.020406080100120140160123456789101112Totalelectricitysupply(TWh)Month201920202021ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE49RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Coalcontinuestobethesinglelargestsourceofadditionalsupply,butlow-carboniscatchingupChangeinelectricitygenerationinIndia,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-100-500501001502002015201620172018201920202021202220232024IndiaChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchangeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE50RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.JapanIn2021,Japan’selectricitydemandreturnedtoaboutthe2019level(up1.5%).Despitedemandrecoveringintheindustrialandcommercialsectors,theimpactofthepandemiccontinuedandtherecoverywaslimitedduetoanoversixmonthlongstateofemergencyin2021.Japan’selectricitydemandhasdeclinedoverthepastdecadeduetostrongenergyconservationactivitiesanddespiteincreasingelectrification.Weforecastthistrendtocontinueduring2022-2024withanaverageannualdeclineoflessthan1%.In2021gasandcoalmetaround70%oftotalelectricitydemand,butthecontributionofrenewablesisrisingeveryyear.Intheperiodto2024weexpectcoal-andgas-firedpowergenerationtodeclinebyabout15%and9%respectivelyrelativeto2021,whilerenewablegenerationissettogrowby21%.Nucleargenerationcouldincreaseevenmorethanrenewables,duetoreactorrestarts.Thisincludesplantsresumingoperationaftertemporaryshutdownduetoanti-terrorismsafetymeasures,aswellasunitsrestartingforthefirsttimesincetheaccidentattheFukushimaDaiichinuclearpowerplant,followingtheGreatEastJapanEarthquakeof2011.However,someuncertaintyexistsduetoconcernsovernon-compliancewithregulationsandlocalopposition.InOctober2021theJapanesegovernmentlaunchedthesixthStrategicEnergyPlan,aimedatachievingcarbonneutralityby2050.Thisplanincludesarenewableshareof36-38%bytheendof2030,almostdoublethesharein2021,andnucleargenerationof20-22%,whichcouldfurtheracceleratetheuseofbothsources.KoreaAftergrowthof1%in2020,weestimateelectricitydemandinKoreatohaveincreasedbyover5%in2021,despitehighernumbersofnewCovid-19cases.Weanticipatestableannualdemandgrowthofslightlyabove1%to2024,ledbytheindustrialsectorandfollowedbythecommercialandservicessector.Weexpectrenewablecapacitytogrowstronglyovertheforecastperiod,increasingbyalmost50%by2024comparedto2021.ThisexpansionisledbysolarPVatover4GWperyear.Bothgas-andcoal-firedcapacitycontinuestoriseduringtheforecastperiod,asplantsalreadyunderconstructioncomeonlinedespitegovernmentannouncementstophaseoutbothtechnologiesinthelongerterm.Renewableelectricitysawthestrongestgrowthin2021,risingbyaround30%above2020’soutput,mostlyfromsolarPVandbiomass.From2022to2024weexpectonaverage15%additionaltotalrenewablesoutputperyear.Gasgenerationalsorosein2021(up22%).Nucleargenerationdeclinedby8%,withsomeplantsofflineduetolong-termmaintenance.Inthenextthreeyearsweexpectnucleargenerationtogrowinabsolutetermstoaboutthesameextentasrenewables,increasingby5%peryearonaverage,ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE51RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.asfournewnuclearunitsarescheduledtostartoperating.Lowdemandgrowthandtherapidexpansionoflow-carbongenerationmeanthatcoal-firedgeneration,whichdecreasedbyaround3%in2021,continuestodeclineataroundthesamerateoutto2024.InSeptember2021theKoreanparliamentapproveditsbilloncarbonneutralityandsetasideKRW12trillion(USD10billion)forthestatebudgetin2022toachieveGHGemissionreductions.Koreahasalsosetouttwomainscenariostomeetitsnetzerotargetin2050andannouncedmoreambitiousnationallydeterminedcontributionsundertheParisAgreementaheadofCOP26.Koreaintroduceditscurrentemissionstradingschemein2015,whichcoversover70%ofemissionsincludingheat,power,industry,buildings,domesticaviation,wasteandpublicservices.Theschemehasentereditsthirdphase(2021-2025),inwhichthepowersectorisallocated90%ofitsallowancesfreeofcharge.AustraliaWhileCovid-19casesinAustraliawereminimalinthefirsthalfof2021,outbreaksofnewvariantsinthesecondhalfsawanumberoflockdownsinAustralianstates.Althoughcasescontinuedtoriseinlate2021,thevaccinerolloutprogressedsteadilyfromMarch,over60%ofthepopulationreceivingtwodosesbyOctober.Afterfallingbyaround1.3%in2020,Australianelectricitydemandreboundedsomewhatin2021withcloseto1%growth,butisonlyexpectedtosurpass2019levelsin2022.Weexpectslowcontinuedgrowthupto2024atanaverageofaround1%perannum.MostcapacityadditionsinAustraliaduring2021arepoweredbyrenewables,with1.3GWofnewwindcapacityand4.7GWofsolarPV.Weexpectbothtechnologiestocontinuegrowingatasimilarpaceupto2024.Around2GWofcoal-firedcapacityisduetoretireinthecomingyears:LiddellPowerStationistocloseitsfirstunit(500MW)inApril2022andtheremainingthreeunits(1500MW)inApril2023.Anumberofnewbatteryprojectshavealsobeenannounced,withwhatwillbecometheworld’slargestbattery,a1.2GWfacilityatKurriKurri,tobecompletedin2023.TheAustralianelectricitymarketmovedtofive-minutesettlementon1October2021,whichisexpectedtofavourfast-actingresourcessuchasbatteries.Coal-firedgenerationmadeuparound53%ofelectricitygenerationin2021.Weforecastaslowdeclinefollowingcapacityretirements,itssharefallingtoaround47%by2024.Renewablegenerationgrewbyaround18%in2021year-on-year,andisforecasttocontinuegrowingupto2024followingcontinuedcapacityadditions.Gasgenerationfellbyaround16%in2021andisexpectedtodeclinefurtherbyaround3%peryearonaverageupto2024.InOctober2021Australiaannounceditspledgetoreachnetzerocarbonemissionsby2050.Additionally,atCOP26thecountryannouncedplanstoreduceitsemissionsto35%below2005levelsby2030.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE52RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.ElectricitydemandisrelativelystableinJapan,KoreaandAustralia,withlow-emissiongenerationgrowingandcoalgraduallydecliningChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-60-40-20020406020152016201720182019202020212022202320242015201620172018201920202021202220232024201520162018201920202021202220232024JapanKoreaAustraliaChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchangeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE53RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.SoutheastAsiaWeestimateelectricitydemandinSoutheastAsiatohavegrownby3.8%in2021followinganoveralldeclinein2020,despitetheregioncontinuingtobeaffectedbytheCovid-19pandemic.Mostofthedemandgrowthwasmetbyincreasedrenewablegeneration,withgasandcoalgenerationremainingaboutconstantcomparedto2020.Inthefirstquarterof2021manySoutheastAsiancountriessawelectricitydemandrecoverfromthepreviousyear’sdeclines,ledbytheindustrialsector.However,inthesecondquarterasurgeinCovid-19casesseverelyaffectedmanycountries,particularlyIndonesia,Malaysia,Thailand,thePhilippinesandVietNam.Thisdelayedeconomicrecoveryandledtolowerdemandgrowth,thelargestimpactbeingintheresidentialandcommercialsectors.From2022weexpectastrongerrecovery,withannualdemandgrowthcloseto5%in2022-2024.ElectricitysupplyinSoutheastAsiacontinuestobeledbycoal(around43%),followedbygas(31%)andthenrenewables(25%).However,theshareofbothcoalandgasinthemixdeclinedin2021whiletherenewablesshareincreasedbymorethantwopercentagepoints.Whilerenewablesgrowthissettocontinueupto2024,weexpectthesumofcoal-andgas-firedgenerationtomeetaroundtwo-thirdsofnewdemandoverthisperiod.ChangeinelectricitygenerationinSoutheastAsia,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-40-200204060801002015201620172018201920202021202220232024SoutheastAsiaChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchangeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE54RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.IndonesiaTheimpactofCovid-19affectedIndonesiafromApril2020,hamperingeconomicgrowthandleadingtoadeclineinelectricityconsumption.TheGDPgrowthrateof-2.1%in2020wasassociatedwitha0.8%reductioninelectricityconsumptionyear-on-year,causedbyreductionsinconsumptionintheindustrialandcommercialsectors.Whiledemandbegantoreboundin2021,asurgeofCovid-19casesinthethirdquarterdelayedeconomicrecovery,resultinginrevisedexpectationsforeconomicgrowthin2021of3.5%,downfrom4.5%.Weexpectelectricitydemandtohavegrownby3.6%in2021andtogrowbyover4%in2022.Annualelectricitydemandgrowthisexpectedtobeslightlyabove4%onaverageintheperiod2022-2024.SimilartomanyotherASEANcountries,theenergy-intensiveindustrialsectorisexpectedtogrowfasterthanothersectors.AsofJuly2021thetotalgenerationcapacityofIndonesiawas74GW.Coalstillaccountsforthelargestshareofgeneration(58%).Theshareofrenewableshasremainedstable(around17%)forthelastfouryears.TheshareofsolarPVwasaround0.1%in2021.Toreachthenationalrenewabletargetof23%in2025,apresidentialregulationonrenewablesisexpectedduring2022.Itisanticipatedtousefeed-intariffsandauctionschemestoaccelerateinvestmentinallrenewableresources.Theconstructionofthe145MWCiratafloatingsolarPVplant,oneofthelargestexamplesoffloatingsolarPVintheworld,willsoonbeginafterreachingafinancialcloseagreementinAugust2021,withitscommercialoperationsexpectedtobeginbytheendof2022.ThisprojectisviewedasapilotforthedevelopmentofhybridfloatingsolarPVplantsinmanyotherislandstomeettherenewablestarget.Thegovernmenthasannouncedacommitmenttoachievenetzeroemissionsby2060,orsoonerwithfinancialandtechnologicalsupportfromdevelopednations.Fiveprincipleswereidentifiedinachievingthetarget:1)increasingtheshareofrenewables;2)reducingtheuseoffossilfuels;3)promotingelectricvehicles;4)electrificationintheresidentialandindustrialsectors;and5)utilisingcarboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS).PLN–thestate-ownedelectricitycompany–hasannouncedthatitwillbuildnonewcoalpowerplantsafter2023,whentheyexpecttocompleteallplantsundertheir35GWprogrammeand7GWFastTrackProgramme.Nonetheless,therecentelectricitysupplyplan(RUPTL)stillexpectsadditionsofaround5GWofcoal-firedcapacityfromindependentpowerproducersbetween2024and2030.AspartofthecommitmentannouncedbytheMinistryofEnergyandMineralResources,nonewfossilpowerplantsaretobebuiltbeyond2030.Thefirststageofcoal-firedpowerplantretirementsisduetobeginin2031.Gridsareanimportantflexibilityresourceforintegratingrenewablesinareliableandcost-effectivemanner,andinterconnectionandgriddevelopmentarecurrentlykeychallengesinIndonesia,bothbetweenislandswithinthenationandacrossborders.Tothisend,theIndonesiangovernmentisencouraginggridextensionswithinElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE55RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.andbetweenislands.AccordingtoIndonesia’snetzeroplan,inter-islandinterconnectionshouldstartcommercialoperationin2031.VietNamAftersuccessfullylimitingthepandemic’simpactin2020,VietNamexperiencedastrongCovid-19wavefromMay2021,whichpromptedrestrictivemeasuresandlockdownslastinguntiltheautumnof2021.Theselockdownsledtolargeproductionshutdowns,especiallyinHoChiMinhCityandtheindustrialprovinces;thecountry’seconomywasstronglyaffected.InSeptember2021theindustrialproductionindexfortheelectricityandgassectordroppedby10%year-on-year,andelectricitydemandinthefirsttwoweeksofthemonthwas15%lowerthanin2020.Basedontheseimpacts,weexpectelectricitydemandgrowthin2021tohavewith5%remainedbelowpre-pandemiclevels.From2022electricitydemandisexpectedtorecoverfurtherandgrowby7%everyyear,pushedbythewithdrawalofrestrictions,risingvaccinationrates,urbanisationandthecountry’sstrongmanufacturingindustry.VietNamsawstronggrowthininstalledsolarPVcapacityin2020,withnetadditionsofcloseto11GW.Nevertheless,thecountrycontinuestorelyoncoaltomeetalargeproportionofitselectricitydemand–for2021weestimatethat45%ofelectricitygenerationcamefromcoal.Despiteconcernsovertheavailabilityoffinancingforcoalpowerprojects,thelatestrevisionoftheelectricitydevelopmentplan(PDP8)fromSeptember2021increasedby3.4GWthetargetforcoal-firedcapacityinstalledby2030,comparedwiththeFebruary2021versionofthedocument.Whilethisrevisiondecreasedonshorewindcapacitytargetsby6GWandremovedoffshorewind,expansionofrenewablecapacityremainsapillarofthecountry’splan.Itisthereforeexpectedthatby2024coalandrenewableswillhavesimilarsharesintheVietnameseelectricitymix(43%and42%respectively),withgas-firedgenerationcontributing14%in2024duetoLNG-to-powerprojectssuchasThiVaiandSonMycomingonline.ThailandThailandisslowlyrecoveringfromaneconomicdownturnandadropinelectricityconsumptioncausedbytheCovid-19pandemic.Peakdemandin2021increasedbyover5%to30.1GWcomparedwith28.9GWin2020.Duringthefirsttenmonthsof2021electricitydemandgrewby1.4%comparedwiththesameperiodinthepreviousyear,duelargelytoincreaseddemandintheindustrialsector.Industryaccountedforthelargestshareofoverallelectricitydemandataround45%,andindustrialdemandgrewby5.5%inthisperiod,thelargestgrowthbeingseenincarmanufacturing,ironandsteel,andrubbermanufacturing.Electricityconsumptionintheresidentialincreasedby2%,whereasthecommercialsectorconsumptiondeclinedbymorethan6%duringthefirsttenmonthsduetothestrictCovid-19containmentmeasures,particularlyduringthesecondquarterof2021.WiththegradualreopeningofElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE56RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.economicactivity,weestimatethatoveralldemandgrewin2021by2%,withindustryleadingtherise.Similarannualgrowthratesof2-3%areforecastforelectricitydemandin2022-2024,ledbyindustryandcommerce.AlthoughnaturalgashasbeenthelargestsourceofelectricitygenerationinThailandoverthepastdecades(estimated60%in2021),thefirsttenmonthsof2021sawaslightdecreaseintotalgas-firedgeneration(down1%)anditsshareintheelectricitymix.Coal,providing21%oftotalgenerationin2021,declinedby4%.AtCOP26Thailandofficiallyannounceditscommitmenttoachievecarbonneutralityby2050,andnetzeroGHGemissionsby2065,withinternationalsupport.Thistargethasbeenacceleratedfromtheoriginalplanof2060-2065thatwasapprovedinAugust2021underthenewNationalEnergyPlan2022.Aspartofthisnationalenergytarget,theElectricityGeneratingAuthorityofThailand(EGAT)hasalsoannouncedtheEGATCarbonNeutralityby2050policy,includingagoaltoreachpeakemissionsby2025byfocusingontransforminggenerationsourcestowardscleanenergy,modernisingthepowergridandpromotingdemand-sidemanagement.Underthenewnationalplan,atleasta50%shareofnewgenerationmustcomefromrenewables.Large-scalehybridhydro-floatingsolarPVpowerplants,batteriesandCCUShavebeenidentifiedasthemaincleantechnologysources.Thailand’sfirsthydro-floatingsolarhybridproject,with45MWcapacityandcurrentlytheworld’slargest,startedcommercialoperationinOctober2021.Theplanistoincreasethecapacityofhydro-floatingsolarPVto5.3GWby2037,utilisingexistinghydropowerplants.PhilippinesVaryingconfinementmeasuresduetothepandemicbeganinthePhilippinesin2020.Theresidentialsectorhadthehighestshareofelectricitydemandataround35%,andwitha12%year-on-yearrisewastheonlysectortogrowin2020.Thistemperedthecountrywidefallindemandtoadecreaseofaround5%relativeto2019.Withthegradualreopeningofactivities,demandreboundedandinthefirsthalfof2021was3.1%higherthaninthesameperiodin2019.Demandrecoveryissettocontinueasvaccinationsarerolledoutinto2022,resultinginannualgrowthof5-6%until2024.LowreservemarginswereobservedintheLuzongridduringAprilandMay2021(thehotanddryseason).Reserveshortfallswereseenonseveraldaysduetohighdemandforcoolingcoincidingwithlowerhydropoweravailability.Electricitysecurityhasbeenhighlightedasaconcern,especiallygiventhegeneralelectionsscheduledforMay2022.ThestartofcommercialoperationofthedelayedDingininsupercriticalcoalpowerplant(1.3GW)isexpectedtohelpalleviatethisconcernoncebothunitscomeonline,anticipatedforthesecondquarterof2022.Amoratoriumontheendorsementofnewcoalpowerplantswaspassedinthefourthquarterof2020,butabout3.15GWoftotaladditionalcoalcapacityisstillexpectedbetween2021and2025ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE57RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.frompreviousapprovals.Thetotalnewgeneratingcapacitycommittedfortheperiod,includingcoal,comesto5.8GW.Inaddition,1.54GWofbatterystoragecapacityisalsocommitted.MarketdesignchangestosupporthighersharesofvariablerenewablescontinuetobeimplementedinthePhilippines.InJune2021five-minuteintervalsinthewholesalemarketwereintroduced,aswellasarenewableenergyoptionforendusers.TheshareofwindandsolarPVremainslowatestimated3%in2021comparedwithgeothermal(10%)andhydro(7%),andthesystemisdominatedbycoal(54%)andgas(21%).Implementationofareservesmarketwasplannedbytheendof2021,whiledemand-sidebiddingistobeintroducedby2024.ThemajorislandgroupsofLuzon,VisayasandMindanaowillsoonbeconnectedoncetheVisayas-Mindanaointerconnectionprojectiscompletedinearly2022,therebyhelpingconsolidatetheavailablereservesforthecountry.SingaporeWeestimateSingapore’selectricitydemandtohavetoppedpre-Covid-19levelsin2021(up3.4%on2020).DespiteasurgeinCovid-19cases,lockdownmeasureshavebeenlimitedcomparedto2020andthevaccinationratewasalreadyhighinOctober2021(84%).Weexpectdemandtogrowabove2%until2024,similartotheforecastbytheEnergyMarketAuthorityofSingapore(EMA).Gas-firedplantsmeetthevastmajorityofdemand(95%in2021),withgassuppliedthroughpipelinesfromMalaysiaandIndonesiaandLNGimports.Long-termsupplycontractslargelyinsulatedSingaporefromthehighAsianLNGspotprices.However,in2021thecountrysawwholesaleelectricitypricesurges,drivenpartlybymaintenanceaffectingpipelinegasfromIndonesia.Singaporestartedpurchaseinquiriesinthespotmarketduetotheexpectedexpiryofalong-termcontractwithIndonesiaby2023.Inaddition,itannouncedpre-emptivesupplysecurityarrangements,includingstandbyfuelfacilitiestostabilisewholesaleelectricityprices,andaco-operationarrangementwheregenerationcompanieslookingtosellexcessgasmustofferitfirsttoEMAandotherlocalgenerationcompanies.Singaporeannounceditsrequestsforproposalstosecure4GWoflow-carbonelectricityimportstomakeup30%ofitspowersupplyby2035.Thefirst1.2GWisexpectedby2027.Ithasalreadysetupatwo-yeartrialtoimport100MWofcross-borderelectricityfromMalaysia,startingby2022.ThiswillhelpdiversifyitssourcesofelectricityandisasteptowardsbuildingtheASEANpowergrid.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE58RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.ElectricitydemandgrowthinSoutheastAsiaisfuelledbyamixofcoal,gasandrenewablesChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-20-10010203040201520182021202420152018202120242015201820212024IndonesiaVietNamThailandChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchange-6-4-2024681020152018202120242015201820212024PhilippinesSingaporeChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE59RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.AmericasElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE60RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.StrongdemandgrowthandhighgaspricesleadtoatemporaryreboundforcoalCountriesintheAmericasregionpostedastrongreboundinelectricitydemandof4%in2021,followingdeclinesof2%in2019and3.0%in2020.Thegrowthindemandissettomoderateoverthenextthreeyears,averagingcloseto1%between2022and2024.ThisislargelydrivenbytheUnitedStates,whichcomprisesabouttwo-thirdsofoverallregionaldemand.WeexpectUSdemandgrowthtohavereached3%in2021,slowingtolessthan0.5%overthenextthreeyears.ThefiguresinCanadaarelargelyinlinewithitsneighbour,whileinMexicoweexpect2021tohaveseenastrongerreboundin2021of6%,whichthenmoderatesto3-4%annuallyoverthenextthreeyears.InSouthAmericaannualdemandgrowthreached6%in2021,Brazil’sdemandgrowingbyover7.5%.Weestimategrowthtohavebeenabove7%inPeruandColombia,andaround3%inArgentinaandChile.Commercialandindustrialdemandwerethemaindriversofgrowthin2021intheAmericasregion,reflectingtheincreaseineconomicactivityfollowingCovid-19lockdowns.Residentialdemandwassteadier,growingbybetween1%and2%in2020and2021despitethereductioninoveralleconomicactivity,afurtherreflectionoftheimpactsofCovid-19.Electricitydemandfortransportisexpectedtoseethestrongestgrowthbetween2021and2024,albeitfromaverysmallbase.Theincreasingelectrificationoftransport,aswellasotherenduseslikeheatingandcooling,isexpectedtobeamaindriverofelectricitydemandinthefuture,althoughpartiallyoffsetbyincreasingefficiencyincurrentformsofelectricityuse.Onthesupplyside,coal-firedgenerationpostedaremarkableannualriseinoutputof17%in2021,aftersixstraightyearsofdeclines,boostedbylowerhydroavailabilityduetodroughtandhighernaturalgaspriceswhichdrovegas-to-coalswitching.Thisincreaseislikelytobefleeting.Areturntonear-normalhydroconditionsin2022aswellasincreasesinwindandsolarcapacityshouldreducethedemandforcoalbyaround7%annuallyoverthenextthreeyears.Renewablesincludinghydroaccountedforabout34%ofannualgenerationintheregionin2021,thelargestshareofallsources,followedbygasat32%,coalat17%,nuclearat14%andoilat2.6%.By2024weexpectrenewablestoaccountforalmost40%,itsshareincreasingalmostentirelyattheexpenseofcoal,whichisexpectedtodeclinetoashareof13%.Thiswilldriveemissionslower,bothintheiroveralllevelandintensity.Weexpectemissionsintensitytofallto272gCO2/kWhin2024,downfrom311gCO2/kWhin2021and404gCO2/kWhin2014.Overallemissionsaresettodeclineto1.9billiontCO2in2024,from2.1billiontCO2in2021.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE61RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.DemandgrowthmoderatesafterthereboundfromCovid-19in2021Developmentofelectricitydemand,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%20152018202120242015201820212024201520182021202420152018202120242015201820212024AmericasUnitedStatesCanadaMexicoBrazilElectricitydemandgrowthDemandDemandforecastElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE62RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Coalgetsaboostin2021,leadingtohigheremissions;renewablesdominatethereafterChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024Developmentofemissionsintensity,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-400-300-200-10001002003004002015201620172018201920202021202220232024AmericasChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchange010020030040050060020152017201920212023CO₂intensity(gCO₂/kWh)AmericasUnitedStatesCanadaMexicoBrazilElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE63RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.UnitedStatesElectricitysecuritywillbecloselywatchedintheUnitedStatesthiswinter,asthepossibilityofarepeatoftheseverepowercutsthatoccurredinTexasinFebruaryof2021cannotbediscounted.AjointreportissuedinOctoberonwinterreadinessofthepowersectorbytheregulatorFERCandreliabilityentityNERCstronglyurgedsystemoperatorstoadoptwinterisationrecommendationstoensurereliability.USelectricitydemandroseby3%in2021,returningtolevelsseenin2019priortotheCovid-19-relateddisruptionineconomicactivity.Weexpectittomoderategraduallyandstabiliseby2024.Gas-firedgenerationdeclinedbyaround3%in2021,drivenbyhighernaturalgaspricesimprovingthecompetitivenessofcoal-firedgeneration.ThepriceofgasatHenryHub,thebenchmarkUSlocation,reachedUSD5.5perMBtuinOctober,upfromUSD2.4perMBtuforthesamemonthin2020andthehighestpriceforthemonthsince2008.In2022lowelectricitydemandgrowthcombinedwithstrongrenewablesgrowthsqueezesbothgasandcoalgeneration.Inthelattertwoyearsoftheforecast,fallingnaturalgaspricesallowgastoincreaseitsshareattheexpenseofcoal,withrenewablesgrowthshrinkingtotalfossilfuelgeneration.Coal-firedgenerationisexpectedtohaverisenby19%in2021,thefirstannualincreasesince2014,asitbenefitedfromtherelativeincreaseinthepriceofnaturalgasandstrongdemandgrowth.Weexpectthisincreasetobeshort-lived,however.Coal-firedgenerationisanticipatedtofallbyanaverageofcloseto6%annuallyintheperiod2022to2024.Nucleargenerationisexpectedtohavedeclinedby1.5%in2021,continuingaslightdownwardtrendoverthepastfiveyearsasfacilitiesretire,includingIndianPoint3inNewYorkattheendofApril.ThecommissioningofVogtleUnits3and4hasbeendelayeduntillate2022andearly2023respectively.Constructionofthesefacilitiescommencedin2012.Weanticipatehydroelectricpowergenerationtohavedeclinedby11%in2021comparedwith2020,aslong-termdroughtconditionsprevailedinmanypartsofthewesternstates.For2022weexpectgrowthof8%year-on-yearasmoreaveragehydrooutputreturns.Mostofthegrowthinelectricitygenerationbetween2022and2024islikelytobefromwindandsolarPV.In2021windgenerationincreasedby11%,whilesolaroutputgrewby26%.Weexpectwindoutputtogrowbyanannualaverageof8%between2022and2024,andsolargenerationtogrowatanaveragerateof22%overthesameperiod.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE64RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Renewablesgrowthbouncesback,whilecoalandgasdeclineChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-300-200-10001002003002015201620172018201920202021202220232024UnitedStatesChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchangeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE65RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.CanadaCanada’selectricitydemandrosebyabout3%in2021,offsettingthedeclineof2.6%inthepreviousyear.Economicrecoveryandacolderwinterthanin2020havehelpedboostCanadianelectricitydemand.ExtremeheatinJune2021sawnewsummerpeakdemandrecordssetinwesternCanada.Intheperiod2022-2024demandgrowsmuchmoregradually,averaging1.4%annually.Electricityexports,whichjumpedbyabout20%in2020,reverttohistoricallevelsin2021whereabout10%ofproductionisexportedtotheUnitedStates.MostoftherenewablecapacitygrowthinCanadaisinhydropower.MuskratFalls,anew(824MW,4.9TWhperyear)hydrofacilityinLabradorisoperational,althoughbytheendof2021associatedtransmissionfacilitieswerestillbeingcommissioned.TheCanadianandNewfoundlandandLabradorgovernmentsreachedanagreementinprincipleforthefinancialrestructuringoftheproject.TheKeeyaskproject(700MW,4.4TWhperyear)inManitobaisexpectedtoenteroperationin2022,asisthe4thunitoftheLaRomaineproject(245MW,1.3TWhperyear)inQuebec.ThePeaceRiverSiteCproject(1100MW,5.1TWhperyear)underconstructioninBritishColumbiahasanexpectedin-servicedateof2025.Windandsolarinvestmentcontinues,theircapacitysettoreach17GWand5GWrespectivelyin2024.Nuclearoutputisexpectedtofallduetoadditionalunitsundergoingrefurbishment.TwolargenuclearunitsinOntario(Darlington3andBruce6)beganmulti-yearoutagesin2020andwillnotreturntoserviceuntillate2023orearly2024.Athirdunit,Darlington1,willgoofflinein2022andafourthunit,Bruce3,inearly2023.Coal-firedgenerationseesamarkeddeclinethanksprimarilytothecoalphase-outintheprovinceofAlberta,whichisexpectedtobecompletedby2023,mostoftheunitsbeingconvertedtooperateonnaturalgas.Coal-firedgeneratingcapacityinCanada,whichmeasured8.8GWin2019,fallsto2.9GWin2024,coal-firedgenerationfallingbyover80%.Naturalgas-firedgenerationgrowsasaresultofthecoalclosuresandconversionsandnuclearoutages.Electricitytraderosein2020,with57TWhofnetexportstotheUnitedStates.InSeptember2021HydroQuebecenteredintoanagreementwiththeStateofNewYorkforthetransmissionof1250MW(10.4TWhperyear)ofhydroandwindpowerfromQuebectoNewYorkCity.Oneunusualfeatureofthedealisthatthetransmissionline,knownastheChamplainHudsonPowerExpress,willbeentirelyundergroundorunderwaterfromtheUSborderwithCanadatoitsendpointinNewYorkCity.Thedealissubjecttoregulatoryapproval.Anotherpreviouslyapprovedexportproject,NewEnglandCleanEnergyConnect,whichwouldleadtotheexportof1200MW(9.45TWhperyear)ofpowerfromQuebectothestateofMassachusettsviaMaine,hitaroadblockinNovember2021whenareferenduminMainepassedcallingforabanontheconstructionofthetransmissionlinesfortheproject.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE66RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.MexicoElectricitydemandrecoveredinMexicoin2021,growingbymorethan6%year-on-year.Mostofthedemandincrementin2021wasmetbyanincreaseingas-firedgeneration.Thiswasdespitethewidespreadlossofgas-firedgenerationinFebruary2021thatledtopowercutstoabout11millionusersduetotheunavailabilityofgassuppliesfromacrosstheborder,causedbyrecordlowtemperaturesinthesouthernUnitedStates.In2022generationfromrenewableenergyissettogrowby17%,ahigherratethanothersources,providingabout12TWhofadditionalelectricitycomparedto2021,drivenprimarilybynewwindandsolarcapacityandhigherhydroavailability.Inlate2021theMexicangovernmentannouncedaconstitutionalreformproposaltoreversethe2014electricitymarketreform.Growthinrenewablegenerationisexpectedtoslowafter2022,whilestillincreasingbecauseofadditionalsolarrooftopPVinstallationsandincreaseddispatchfromthecountry’shydropowergenerationfacilities.Additionalgovernmentmeasurestoincreaserenewableenergyaspartofthereformproposalincludebuildinga1000MWsolarPVpark,a25MWnewgeothermalgenerationunitandrepoweringhydropowerstationstoincreasecapacityby264MW.Renewablesareexpectedtogrowveryslowlyin2023and2024,meaningthatoil-firedgenerationwillbeneededtocoverthegrowingdemand.BrazilSimilartoothercountriesintheregion,electricitydemandreboundedin2021,risingby7.6%year-on-year.However,theworstdroughtsincethestartofrecordsin1930ledtoadropinrenewablegeneration,duemainlytoadeclineinhydropower.Thus,thesumofcoal-andgas-firedgenerationroseby31TWhcomparedwith2020(up43%).Inordertoguaranteesecurityofsupply,theBraziliangovernmentenactedaseriesofspecialmeasuressuchastheestablishinganewcommitteeforemergencyhydropowermanagement,withpowerstotemporarilydeterminelimitsonuse,storageandflowatthecountry’shydropowerplants,extendingtotheendof2021.InSeptember2021Brazil’sMinistryofEnergypublishedguidelinesforadditionalsimplifiedauctionsofreservegenerationcontractscoveringtheperiodfromMay2022toDecember2025.Additionally,thecountry’senergyregulator,ANEEL,approvedaBRL1619/MWh(approximatelyUSD300/MWh)pricecaponnaturalgas-firedgenerationforitsOctober2025auction.WithincreasedrainfallinOctober2021,weexpectrenewablegenerationtostartrisingyear-on-yearby20TWhin2022(up4%)and54TWhin2023(up10%).However,electricitypricesaresettoremainhighthroughout2022duetotheanticipatedneedtolimithydropowergenerationandthecostofcontractedgasreservesneededtomaintaincontinuityofsupply.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE67RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Coal-firedgenerationisbeingreplacedbyrenewablesandgasChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-60-40-20020406020152016201720182019202020212022202320242015201620172018201920202021202220232024201520162018201920202021202220232024CanadaMexicoBrazilChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchangeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE68RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.EuropeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE69RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.ThecomebackoffossilfuelsinEuropeisonlytemporaryAfterdemandforelectricityinEuropefellby1.3%in2019and4%in2020,itincreasedbymorethan4%in2021toaboutthepre-pandemiclevelof2019.Twofactorswerethemaindriversforthestrongrebound.First,theregion’seconomygrewstrongly,headedbytheindustrialsectorwhilethecommercialsector’srecoverywasdampenedbyhealthprotectionmeasures.Second,coldertemperaturesraisedheatingdemand–April2021wasthecoldestsince2003.During2022weexpectdemandtocontinuetogrow,albeitataslowerpaceof1.7%,supportedbycontinuedeconomicrecovery.Areturntostaticdemandislikelyin2023and2024.Themostnotabledevelopmentonthesupplysidein2021wasthestronggrowthofcoal-firedgeneration,increasingbymorethan11%aftera20%declinein2020.Thiswasthefirstincreasesince2012.Coalserved40%oftheyear’sincrementaldemand,followedbynuclearat30%(growingby6%).Themainreasonsforthisreboundofcoalarethestronggrowthindemandcoupledwithrelativelylowgrowthinrenewablesgeneration(up1%,causedbyexceptionallylowwindspeeds).Additionally,highnaturalgaspricesimprovedthecompetitivepositionofcoal-firedplantsvis-à-visgas,despiteallowancesundertheEUemissionstradingsystem(EUETS)beingovertwicethepriceofthosein2020.Highfuelpricesresultedinrecord-highwholesaleprices.FourthquarterpricesinFrance,Germany,SpainandtheUnitedKingdomwerethreetomorethanfourtimeshigherthanthefourthquarter2016-2020average.Weexpecttheperiod2022to2024tobecharacterisedbystrongrenewablesgrowth,whichcrowdsoutfossilfuels(decliningbyalmost10%duringtheperiod)andcompensatesfordecliningnucleargenerationin2022and2023(down4%overthewholeperiod).Nuclear’sdeclineisrelatedtotheGermannuclearphase-outandfurtherclosuresinBelgiumandtheUnitedKingdom.Asgaspricesareexpectedtoberelativelyhighthroughout2022,coalissettolargelymaintainitsroleduringtheyear(decliningby3%),butislikelytodeclinesignificantlyin2023(down15%)and2024(down13%)duetodeclininggaspricesandslowerdemandgrowth.Gasbenefitsfromimprovingcompetitivenessagainstcoalin2023,whenitsgenerationincreasesby7%,butitisincreasinglyreplacedbyrenewablesinthemediumterm.In2021theEuropeanUnionputforwardawiderangeofreformstotheEUETSaspartofitsFitfor55package.Thereformsareintendedtoalignthecarbonmarketwiththenew2030EUemissiontargetofreducinggreenhousegasemissionsbyatleast55%from1990levels(upfrom40%).FortheEUETS,a61%reductioninemissionsby2030from2005levelsisproposed(upfrom43%).Afterayear-on-yearemissionssurgeof8%inEuropein2021(4%higheremissionsintensity),weexpectafallof24%by2024comparedwiththepre-pandemiclevelof2019(emissionsintensitydown27%).ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE70RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Europeanelectricitydemandisexpectedtostagnateafterastrongreboundin2021and2022Developmentofelectricitydemand,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2015201820212024201520182021202420152018202120242015201820212024201520182021202420152018202120242015201820212024EuropeGermanyFranceItalySpainUnitedKingdomTurkeyElectricitydemandgrowthDemandDemandforecastElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE71RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.ElectricitysectoremissionsandemissionsintensityinEuropeareexpectedtodeclineagainafter2021Changeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024Developmentofemissionsintensity,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-300-250-200-150-100-500501001502002015201620172018201920202021202220232024EuropeChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchange05010015020025030035040045050020152017201920212023CO₂intensity(gCO₂/kWh)EuropeGermanyFranceItalySpainUnitedKingdomTurkeyEuropeanUnionElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE72RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.EUETSflexibilityrelievespressurefromgasmarketsTheEUETSputsacapontotalemissionsthatcanbeemittedbypowerplants,industryandtheaviationsector.Eachyear,thenumberofnewemissionallowancesdecreases.Allowancescanbetradedandeveryyearemittersmustsubmitsufficientallowancestocovertheirannualemissions.Excessallowancescanbecarriedforwardintothenextyear.Pricesaredeterminedbythelong-termexpectationsofmarketparticipantsregardingdemandandsupplyofallowances,whicharevalidformorethantenyears.Thisbalancecanbeaffected,forexample,byanunexpectedlylargeincreaseinenergydemand,ascurrentlyseenduetothestrongeconomicrecovery,oratighteningonthesupplysideasproposedintheFitfor55package.Fortheelectricitysector,theEUETStypicallyregulatesthebalancebetweenthegenerationcostsofgas-andcoal-firedpowerplants:withallotherthingsremainingunchanged,asystematicincreaseingaspricesrelativetocoalresultsingas-to-coalswitching.Consequently,carbonemissionsincrease.ButastotalcarbonemissionswithintheEUETSarecapped,thecarbonpriceincreasestogetherwithgaspricestopreventwidespreadfuelswitching.(Forthesakeofclarity,weareneglectingheretheMarketStabilityReserve,whichcaninfluencethenumberofallowancesincirculation.)AnotherwayofthinkingaboutthisisthatthereisafixedsupplyofemissionallowancesavailablewithintheEUETS.Ifthedemandforallowancesincreasesduetoincreasingcoal-firedelectricitygeneration,thepriceofallowancesalsoincreasestokeepdemandandsupplyinbalance.Gaspricesincreasedstronglyfromtheendof2020andinparticularinthesecondhalfof2021,morethanthesimultaneousincreaseincoalprices.Consequently,electricitymarketparticipantsbegangas-to-coalswitchingandthereforeemissionssurged.TheEUETSmarketrespondedbyincreasingthepriceforemissionallowances,partiallyoffsettingthegrowingpricedifferencebetweengasandcoal.Nonetheless,higherallowancepricesdidnotfullypreventgas-to-coalswitchingandtheconsequentincreaseinemissionsfromcoal-firedelectricitygeneration.ThatcarbonpricesdidnotincreaseyetmorestronglyshowsastrengthoftheEUETSmarketdesign:thecarbonbudgetspansmultipleyearsandthereforethereisnofixedcapforindividualyears.Instead,emissionscanbebalancedoveralongertimeperiod.In2021,duetothetightsupplysituationingasmarkets(andthereforehighprices),usinggasinsteadofcoalwouldhavebeenverycostlyandeconomicallyinefficient.Instead,theEUETSallowedforashiftfromgas-firedgenerationtocoalandtherebyrelievedpressurefromtightgasmarkets.Theadditionalemissionsin2021havereducedtheremainingallowancesforthecomingyears.Thiswilllimitfuturecoaluse.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE73RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Coal-firedgenerationwasmorecompetitivethangasin2021despiteincreasingEUETSpricesGas-andcoal-firedelectricitygenerationcosts,carbonprices,2018-2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:Averagemonthlyvalues.Assumedgenerationefficienciesare40%forcoaland50%forgas.Sources:Naturalgasprices:TTF;coalprices:CIFARA;carboncosts:EUETS.Latestupdate:5January2022.-100-500501001502002018201920202021Gasminuscoalvariablegenerationcosts(EUR/MWh)CO₂price(EUR/tCO₂)CO₂priceGasminuscoal(inc.carboncosts)Gasminuscoal(exc.carboncosts)GascheaperCoalcheaperElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE74RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.GermanyAfterfallingforeightyearsinarow,coal-firedelectricitygenerationincreasedinGermanyin2021(byestimated25%comparedwith2020)–butstillremained4%belowthe2019level.Threecauseswereresponsibleforthis.First,electricitydemandrecoveredbyabout4%followingitsCovid-19-related4.6%dropin2020.Second,renewablegeneration,duetolowwindspeeds,declinedforthefirsttimeinmorethan20years(down4.5%).Andthird,highgaspricesrenderedcoal-firedgenerationmorecompetitivecomparedtogas.Germany’sremainingnuclearcapacity,whichprovidedabout12%oftotalgenerationin2021,isduetobephasedoutbytheendof2022.About4.3GWaresettoberetiredintwosteps,attheendof2021andtheendof2022.Weexpectcoal-andgas-firedgenerationin2022toremainatasimilarlevelto2021.Duetonewcapacityandanexpectedreturntohistoricalaveragewindspeeds,weexpectadditionalrenewablesgeneration(up15%)tocompensateforthedeclineinnuclear.Growthofaround1%couldbringdemandbacktothepre-pandemiclevelof2019.In2023and2024weanticipatecoal-firedgenerationtodeclinebyone-thirdintotalcomparedto2022,enabledbyfourmainfactors.First,coalcapacityisduetoberetiredaccordingtotheapprovedcoalphase-outplans(downfrom35GWattheendof2020to30GWin2022andlessthan26GWin2024).Second,renewablescontinuetogrow(by11%intotaloverbothyears).Third,accordingtoourmodelanalysis,weexpectGermany’snetexportstodeclineandthecountrytobecomeanetimporterofelectricityforthefirsttimesince2002.Andfinally,duetoacontinuingincreaseinthecompetitivenessofgascomparedtocoal,andinducedfuelswitching,weexpectgas-firedgenerationtogrowby16%overthetwoyears.Thereboundincoal-firedgenerationandthephase-outofnuclearcapacitymeanthatelectricitysectoremissionsincreasedin2021forthefirsttimesince2013(up17%)andmightonlyfallbelowthe2020levelagainin2024.However,potentialmeasuresbythenewgovernmententeringofficeinDecember2021mightaffecttheoutlookforthecomingyears.Thenewcoalition’sagreementincludes,forexample,theacceleratedphase-outofcoal(ifpossibleby2030)andthefasterexpansionofrenewableenergy.FranceElectricitydemandinFrancedeclinedby5%in2020,largelydrivenbythecontractionofeconomicactivity,whichledtoan8%decreaseinGDPfollowingthelockdownmeasuresenforcedinMarch2020andafter.Weexpecttheindustrialandcommercialsectorstohavesupportedanoverallrecoveryinpowerconsumptionofcloseto5%in2021.For2022to2024,weexpectdemandtostagnateasefficiencygainsoffsetincreasedelectrificationoftheeconomy.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE75RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Asforelectricityproduction,Franceisduetocloseitslastcoal-firedplantin2022andrenewableswillcontinuetoexperienceasteadyincrease.WhilenuclearelectricitygenerationremainsthedominantsourceinFrance,itsproductionlevelremainsrelativelystable.Anumberofolderunitsundergoplannedoutagesaspartoftheirmaintenance.ThestartofthenewFlamanville3reactorisdelayedandcommercialoperationexpectednotbeforethesecondhalfof2023.DuetodefaultsdetectedduringmaintenancechecksinDecember2021,twonuclearplantshadtobetakenoffline,dampeningtheoutlookfornucleargenerationin2022.Weexpectrenewablestoacceleratetheirexpansionand,drivenbywindandsolarexpansion,represent27%ofthegenerationmixby2024(upfrom22%in2021).WhileFrance’spowersectorCO2emissionsarealreadyaverysmallshareoftotalnationalCO2emissionsat6%,andarealsoamongthelowestinEurope,weexpectthemtodeclinebyafurther25%by2024comparedwith2021.Withalargelydecarbonisedpowersystem,electrificationissettobecomeakeyfactorinthedecarbonisationofFrance’seconomy.Francewasoneofthefirstcountriestoputcarbonneutralityintolawin2019,committingtoachieveitby2050.Variouspossiblepathways,includingthetrade-offsbetweenmorenuclearpower,renewablesandenergyefficiency,havebeenexploredbyRTE,theFrenchtransmissionsystemoperator.InOctober2021theFrenchpresidentannouncedthatFrancewouldinvestEUR1billiontodevelopsmallmodularreactorsby2030,followedbyanannouncementinNovembertobuildnewEPRreactorstoachievecarbonneutralityby2050.Beyonddevelopingthenuclearindustryorrenewablesourcesforpowergeneration,Franceisnowgearedtowardsmeasurestoenhanceenergyefficiencytooffsettheimpactofelectrificationonfinalconsumption.ItalyItaly’selectricityconsumptiondroppedbyaround5%year-on-yearin2020.Demanddeclinedinparticularinthesecondquarter(downmorethan10%),aslockdownsandotherrestrictivemeasuresweighedoncommercialandindustrialactivity.WeestimatethatItaly’selectricitydemandrosebyover5%in2021,returningcloseto2019levels.Demandgrowthhasbeenlargelydrivenbyeconomicrecoveryandhigherspaceheatingrequirementsamidcolderthanusualspringtemperatures.Strongdemandrecoveryin2021coincidedwithlimitedgrowthinrenewableelectricitygeneration(upby1%),leavingadditionalmarketspaceforthermalgenerationandimports.Inthefirsthalfoftheyear,gas-firedgenerationrosebycloseto10%,whilecoal-firedpoweroutputplummetedbymorethan20%year-on-year.ThesurgeingaspricesinEuropeledtogas-to-coalswitchinginthesecondhalfoftheyear,withcoal-firedplantsincreasingtheiroutputby3%,whilegas-basedgenerationgrowthsloweddownto5%year-on-year.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE76RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Aftergrowingby1%in2022,weexpectItaly’selectricitydemandtoseedeclinesoflessthan1%in2023and2024,drivenbyimprovingenergyefficiency.Renewables-basedelectricitygenerationisforeseentoexpandby9%by2024comparedwith2021levels,andcoal-firedgenerationissettobephasedoutby2025.Gas-firedpowergenerationisexpectedtodeclinein2022,butthentocomebacktoplateaunear2021levelsin2023and2024,continuingtoplayakeyflexibilityroleinthecountry’spowersystemwhilemorevariablerenewablesareintegratedintothematrix.SpainIn2020electricitydemandinSpainfellbycloseto6%year-on-yearto241TWh.Thiswasthelargestdeclineseenintwodecades,puttingdemandat2003levels.Theeconomicrecoveryin2021hasbeenweakerthanpreviouslyexpected,andelectricitydemandissettoincreasebyonlyaround3%andtoremainbelow2019levels.Renewablesaccountedfor43%oftheelectricitymixin2020,reachingthehighestshareamongallsources.Incontrast,coalaccountedforjust2%,itslowestevershare,andhalfoftheexisting11GWofcoal-firedcapacitywasretiredinjustoneweekin2020.In2021,withgrowinginstalledwindandespeciallysolarPVcapacity,therenewablegenerationsharereachedanewall-timehighofaround47%,andisexpectedtokeepgrowinginthecomingyears.Inthetransmissionsystem,theMallorca-Menorcaislandsunderwaterconnectionwascompletedin2020,reinforcingsecurityofsupplyinMenorca,anislandwith100000inhabitants.Ontheregulationside,inJuly2021limitswereextendedfortheIberianwholesaleday-aheadandintra-daymarketstoalignwithotherEuropeanmarkets.In2021electricitypricesreachedlevelsneverseenbefore,pushedbyhigherCO2andinparticulargasprices.December’saverageday-aheadpricereachedclosetoEUR240/MWh,almostfivetimeshigherthantheaverageDecembervaluesinthepreviousfiveyears.InJune,whenelectricitypricesstartedrising,electricity-relatedVATwastemporarilyreducedfrom21%to10%forcustomersbelow10kW.InSeptember2021,aspriceshadcontinuedtorise,thegovernmentissuedaRoyalDecree-LawmodifyingtheElectricityAct,includingthetemporaryreductionofthespecialtaxonelectricity(downto0.5%from5.1%)andthesuspensionofthetaxonproduction(7%).Towardstheendof2021,measureswereextendeduntilApril2022.Inaddition,thegovernmentcommittedtoaddEUR900milliontothepreviouslyplannedEUR1.1billionannualcross-subsidyfromCO2auctionstothecostofthepowersystem.Additionally,theSpanishgovernmentpassedadecreetotemporarilyclawbackso-called“windfallprofits”fromhydro,nuclear,PVandwindproducerswhowereconsideredasundulybenefittingfromhighCO2andgasprices.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE77RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Weexpectrenewableenergyoutputtogrowbyaround7%annuallybetween2022and2024.Togetherwithexpecteddemandgrowthofcloseto1%duringthesameperiod,weexpectthermalgenerationtodeclineby7.5%onaverageannually,replacedbyrenewables.Consequentlyemissionsfallbyalmost50%to2024comparedwiththepre-pandemiclevelof2019.UnitedKingdomIn2021theUnitedKingdomsawastrongreboundinelectricitydemand(up5%),returningtoaroundthepre-pandemiclevelof2019.Togetherwithexceptionallylowwindspeedsresultingina14%dropintotalrenewablegeneration,thisledtoa17%increaseingas-firedelectricitysupplyandconsequentiallyamorethan20%increaseinelectricitysectorCO2emissions.Thiswasthefirstrisesince2012andfollowsadeclineinemissionsofmorethan70%sincetheyear2000.AsinotherEuropeancountries,UKelectricitywholesalepricesincreasedsignificantlyin2021,inparticularduetohighergasprices,lowrenewablegenerationandtheoutageoftheIFAinterconnectorbetweenFranceandtheUnitedKingdomsinceSeptember.Between2015and2020annualaverageday-aheadpricesinGreatBritainrangedbetweenGBP35andGBP58perMWh(withamaximummonthlyaverageofGBP64inMarch2018).FromApriltoDecember2021averagemonthlypricesincreasedfromGBP67/MWhtoGBP226/MWh,withtheDecemberaveragebeingmorethanfourtimeshigherthantheaverageDecembervalueinthepreviousfiveyears.ThisalsoaffectstheUKenergypricecap,whichlimitsthepriceofdefaultenergytariffsfordomesticconsumers.InOctober2021thecapwasraisedby12-13%,andOfgem,theresponsibleenergyregulator,expectsanothersignificantincreaseinApril2022.Higherwholesaleelectricityprices,combinedwiththepricecaprestrictingthepassingthroughofhighercoststocustomers,significantlyaffectedenergysuppliers.Inthesecondhalfof2021,25haveexitedthemarket.On1January2021,aftertheBrexittransitionperiodendedandtheUnitedKingdomlefttheEUsinglemarket,theUKemissionstradingscheme(UKETS)startedtooperate.DesignedasacapandtradesystemsimilartotheEUETS,theUKETSinitiallycoversenergy-intensiveindustries,powergenerationandaviation.Theschemeisintendedtomakesignificantcontributionstoreachingthecountry’sNetZero2050target.InDecember2021,UKETSemissionallowancestradedatGBP74pertonne,around9%higherthantheEUETS.TheUnitedKingdomcontinuestopursuestrongemissionreductionefforts,reflectednotleastinsignificantwindcapacityadditions,whichweexpecttoresultin12%annualgrowthinwindgenerationbetween2022and2024.CO2emissionsarelikelytofallsignificantlythroughto2024.Thisissupportedbythecountry’sElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE78RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.phase-outofunabatedcoal,duetobecompletedbyOctober2024.Despitetheexpecteddeclineinnucleargenerationbyanannualaverageof7%between2022and2024duetotheplannedretirementsofHinkleyPointB,HunterstonBandHartlepool(each1.3GW),gas-firedgenerationisalsosettofallby6%onaverageperyearduringthesameperiod.DespiteleavingtheEUsinglemarket,theUKelectricitysystemiscloselyconnectedtothecontinent.CurrentplansforGreatBritain’sinterconnectorcapacityforeseeanadditional7.1GW(currently6GW)untiltheendof2024.Thenewcapacitywillhelpbalancevariablerenewablegenerationandthusfacilitatethefurtherdecarbonisationoftheelectricitysystem.TurkeyIncontrastwiththerestofEurope,Turkey’selectricityconsumptiondidnotdeclinein2020,increasingslightlycomparedwiththepreviousyear.Weestimatethatelectricitydemandsurgedbyover8%in2021,largelydrivenbyhighereconomicactivity.Thestrongdemandgrowthin2021coincidedwithasteepdeclineinhydrogeneration(downbyalmost30%)amidseveredrought.Thisinturnprovidedadditionalmarketspaceforthermalgeneration,mostofwhichhasbeencapturedbygas-firedpowerplants.Whilecoalimportpricesincreasedstrongly,oil-indexedgaspricestoTurkeyroseonlymoderatelyin2021.Thisreducedthecostcompetitivenessofcoal-firedpowerplantsvis-à-visgas-firedgeneration,whichrosebycloseto60%.Coal-basedpoweroutputdeclinedby2%year-on-year.Turkey’selectricitydemandisexpectedtogrowbyanaveragerateofcloseto4%peryearduring2022to2024,morethananyothermajoreconomyinEurope.Renewablesgenerationisforeseentoincreaseby13%peryearonaverage,largelydrivenbyimprovinghydroavailability.ThefirstunitatAkkuyu,thecountry’sfirstnuclearpowerplant,isexpectedtostartupin2023/24withacapacityof1.2GW.Thermalgenerationissettograduallydecline,itssharefallingfromaround64%in2021tocloseto50%by2024.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE79RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.RenewablesreplacethermalelectricitygenerationinmanyEuropeanmarketsChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-80-60-40-200204060201520182021202420152018202120242015201820212024201520182021202420152018202120242015201820212024GermanyFranceItalySpainUnitedKingdomTurkeyChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchangeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE80RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.EurasiaElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE81RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.EurasiarecordsitsstrongestincreaseinelectricitydemandsincethedemiseoftheSovietUnionEurasia’selectricityconsumptionincreasedbyanestimated6%year-on-yearin2021,orover80TWh–itshighestincreaseinabsolutetermssincetheendoftheSovietUnion.Thismorethanoffsetthe2.2%dropexperiencedin2020,whenamildwinterandCovid-19-inducedrestrictivemeasuresweighedonelectricityconsumption.Thestrongreboundin2021waspartlydrivenbytherecoveryineconomicandcommercialactivity,withtheregion’sGDPincreasingby4%comparedto2020.Mostofthedemandgrowthwasconcentratedinthefirsthalfoftheyear,whenelectricityconsumptionrosebycloseto7%year-on-year.Thermalgenerationmetover65%oftheincrementaldemand,withgas-firedgenerationtakingthelead.TheRussianFederation(hereafter‘Russia’)aloneaccountedforover70%oftheregion’sconsumptionandconsumptiongrowthin2021.Inadditiontoeconomicrecovery,thecountryexperiencedacoldandlongheatingseason,whichinducedhigherelectricitydemand.Inthemediumtermtheregion’selectricitydemandgrowthisexpectedtoslowtoanannualaverageof1.6%between2022and2024,Russiaaccountingfor60%oftheincrement.ThermalgenerationissettocontinuetodominateEurasia’spowermix,atashareofover62%overtheforecastperiod.Whilethedeploymentofrenewablepowergenerationremainsslow,thecommissioningofnewnuclearplants,includinginBelarusandRussia,issettoreducetheemissionsintensityofpowergenerationinthemediumterm.Ukraine’selectricitydemandincreasedby5%year-on-yearin2021,followingadropof3%in2020.Thishasbeenlargelysupportedbyastrongincreaseinhydroandnuclearpoweroutput,risingby60%and9%respectively.Incontrast,thermalgenerationdroppedbycloseto4%in2021,astightgasandcoalmarketsweighedonfuelavailability.AttheendofOctoberthecountry’selectricitysystemoperatorreportedthattotalcapacityofmorethan8GW(morethan30%ofthecountry’scombinedgas-andcoal-firedcapacity)wasnotoperatingmainlyduetoalackoffuelbutalsoequipmentrepairs.Ukraine’sgas-firedgenerationdeclinedby14%year-on-yearin2021.Inourforecastthecountry’selectricityconsumptionissettoincreaseatanaverageannualrateofaround1.6%inthe2022-2024period.Thisismetbyhigherthermaloutput,gas-andcoal-basedgenerationincreasingonaverageby3.4%and2.3%peryearrespectivelythroughthesameperiod.InKazakhstanelectricityconsumptionrosebyanestimated7%year-on-yearinthefirstelevenmonthsof2021.Thermalgenerationwasthemainsourceofadditionalgeneration,ledbyastrongincreaseincoal-firedoutput,meetingover80%ofthecountry’sElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE82RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.incrementalelectricitydemand.Lowerhydrooutputwascompensatedbyastrongincreaseinwindandsolarpowergeneration,upby60%and30%year-on-yearinthefirsteightmonthsof2021.Followingthestronggrowthin2021,Kazakhstan’selectricityconsumptionisexpectedtomoderateatanaverageannualgrowthratebelow2%inthemediumterm,largelysupportedbyexpandinggas-firedpowergenerationandrenewablesourcesofelectricitysupply.Kazakhstanhasatargetofcommissioning3GWofgas-firedgenerationcapacityinthenextfiveyears.Whilethegrowingshareofrenewableandgas-basedgenerationissettoreducethepowersector’semissionsintensity,coal-firedgenerationissettoretainitsdominantposition,accountingforover65%ofthegenerationmixin2024.OthermarketsinCentralAsiaalsorecordedstronggrowthinbothelectricitydemandandgeneration,estimatedat7%upon2020.Intotal,weexpectelectricitydemandinCentralAsiatoincreaseatanaverageannualrateof2%peryearover2022-2024.InUzbekistanelectricitydemandrosebyanestimated7%year-on-yearin2021.Thiswasprimarilysupportedbythecountry’slargegas-firedpowerfleet.Thecountry’selectricitydemandisexpectedtoincreaseonaveragebyover3%peryearin2022-2024,additionaldemandprimarilybeingmetbyrapidlygrowingrenewables(includinghydro)andexpandinggas-firedpowergeneration.TheconstructionoftheSirdaryaCCGTplant,withacapacityof1.5GW,startedattheendof2020andtheplantisduetobecommissionedby2024.Thecountryhasannouncedmarketreforms,withtheaimofestablishingacompetitivewholesalemarketintheperiodbetween2021and2025.Accordingtoofficialstatements,Turkmenistan’selectricitygenerationincreasedbyover10%year-on-yearinthefirsttenmonthsof2021.Thiswaspartlydrivenbyhigherelectricityexportstoneighbouringmarkets,whichrosebyover25%comparedto2020,includingelectricitydeliveriestoKyrgyzstan,whichstartedinAugust2021.Turkmenistancommissioneda432MWgasturbinepowerplantintheChardzhovdistrict,primarilytargetingitsexportmarkets,includingAfghanistan,KyrgyzstanandUzbekistan.InBelaruselectricityconsumptiongrewbyanestimated7%year-on-yearin2021,offsettingthedeclinein2020,whendemanddroppedby2.5%.ThefirstunitoftheOstrovetsnuclearpowerplant(1.1GWcapacity)startedcommercialoperationinJune2021.Thesecondunitisexpectedtostartcommercialoperationsin2022.Consequently,nucleargenerationmeetsmostoftheincrementaldemandthroughtheforecast,itsshareofthepowermixreachingover35%by2024,primarilyattheexpenseofgas-firedpoweroutput.ThisissettosignificantlyreducetheemissionsintensityofBelarus'powergenerationoverthemediumterm.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE83RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Followingastrongrecoveryin2021,Eurasia’selectricitydemandgrowthslowsto2024Developmentofelectricitydemand,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%20152016201720182019202020212022202320242015201620172018201920202021202220232024EurasiaRussiaElectricitydemandgrowthDemandDemandforecastElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE84RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.NuclearcapacityadditionsreducetheemissionsintensityofpowergenerationintheregionChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024Developmentofemissionsintensity,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-60-40-200204060801002015201620172018201920202021202220232024EurasiaChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchange05010015020025030035040045020152017201920212023CO₂intensity(gCO₂/kWh)EurasiaRussiaElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE85RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Russia:Agas-firedrecoveryRussia’selectricityconsumptionfellby2.8%(or28TWh)year-on-yearin2020.MildwinterconditionsandCovid-19-inducedlockdownmeasuresweighedonelectricityconsumptioninthefirsthalfoftheyear.Lowerdemandcoincidedwithhigherhydro(up9%)andnucleargeneration(up3.3%).Thisinturnputdownwardpressureonthermalgeneration,whichdivedbycloseto9%.Coal-andgas-fired-generationborethebruntofthedecline,whileoil-firedgenerationincreasedbycloseto50%,aslowfueloilpricesinducedgas-to-oilswitchinginthepowersector.WeestimatethatRussia’selectricityconsumptionincreasedbyabout6%(or60TWh)in2021,itslargestannualgrowthinabsolutetermssincethefalloftheSovietUnion.Arecoveryinindustrialandcommercialactivitylargelysupportedthisgrowth;Russia’sGDPisexpectedtogrowbyaround5%in2021.Inaddition,coldfirst-quarterandspringtemperatures,aswellasanearlystarttothe2021/22heatingseason,boostedelectricitydemandfurther.Demandgrowthwashigherinthefirstpricezone,whichcoversthewesternpartofthecountry,consumptionincreasingtherebycloseto7%.Inthesecondpricezone,whichcoversSiberia,electricitydemandgrewbyanestimated4%year-on-year.Russia’sgrowthinpowergenerationoutpacedtheincreaseindemand,supportinghigherexports,whichmorethandoubledinthefirsttenmonthsof2021comparedtothesameperiodin2020.ThiswaslargelyduetohigherdeliveriestoChina,KazakhstanandtheBalticstates.Thermalgenerationaccountedforover80%ofthenetincreaseinelectricitysupplyin2021,surgingbyover8%year-on-year.Mostofthisincreasewasconcentratedinthefirstpricezone.Lowerhydrogeneration(downby14%)waslargelycompensatedbyhighernuclearoutput(upby3%),whilethermalpowerplantsmetalmostalltheadditionaldemand.Thefirstpricezoneislargelydominatedbygas-firedpowergeneration.Inaddition,risingdomesticcoalpricessupportedcoal-to-gasswitching.Accordingtofirstestimates,gas-firedgenerationsoaredbyover10%year-on-yearin2021.Incontrast,thermalgenerationdroppedby1%inthesecondpricezone,asstronghydrooutput(upby9%)weighedontheregion’scoal-firedpoweroutput.Followingstronggrowthin2021,Russia’selectricitydemandgrowthisexpectedtoslowtoanaverageofover1.4%peryearuntil2024.ThetwounitsoftheKurskIInuclearplant(1.25GWcapacityeach)arescheduledtobecommissionedby2024,replacingthefourexistingunits(1GWeach)plannedtoretirefrom2022.Thecountryhasundertakenalarge-scalemodernisationprogrammeofitsthermalfleet,withthetargettorefurbishover20GWbetween2022and2026.AccordingtoRussia’sMarketCouncil,thiscoulddecreasethecarbonfootprintofthepowersystemby5%.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE86RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Gas-firedpowergenerationandnuclearleadRussia’spowergenerationgrowthChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-60-40-200204060802015201620172018201920202021202220232024RussiaChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchangeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE87RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.MiddleEastElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE88RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.Gasremainsthedominantfuel;oilandcoalaresqueezedbyrenewablesandnuclearElectricitydemandintheMiddleEastfellslightlyin2020asdeclinesinGulfCooperationCouncil(GCC)countries–especiallySaudiArabia,theUnitedArabEmiratesandKuwait–wereonlypartiallyoffsetbyrisingconsumptionelsewhereintheregion(particularlyinIran).Somecountries,includingIraq,Lebanon,SyriaandYemen,facedpowershortagesandwereleftwithunmetdemand.Weestimatethatelectricityusegrewbyover3.5%in2021andwillcontinueatanaveragerateof2%duringthe2022-2024period,duetopopulationgrowth,risingdemandforairconditioningandseawaterdesalination,andtheexpansionofenergy-intensiveindustriesinGCCeconomiesinparticular.Theresidentialandcommercialsectorscontinuetobethemainenginesofdemandgrowth,accountingforoverhalfoftheriseintheforecastperiod.Theremainingnetriseissplitbetweenindustryandotheruses.Weexpectgas–dominantintheregion–tomaintainaconstantgenerationshareofaround70%throughto2024.Oil-firedpowerissettodropfrom24%oftotalgenerationin2021to21%by2024(ledbydeclinesinSaudiArabiaandIran).Coalfallsfrom1.6%to1.3%overthesameperiod,astheclosureofalargecoal-firedplantinIsrael(OrotRabin)willmorethanoffsetproductiongrowthfromthenewHassyancoal-firedplantintheUnitedArabEmirates.Nucleargenerationintheregionmorethandoubledin2021duetothefirsttwounitsoftheBarakahnuclearpowerplantintheUnitedArabEmiratescomingonlineinAprilandSeptember,andisexpectedtoreachoversixtimes2020levelsby2024withtheplantfullycommissioned.Renewablepoweroutput,whichispredominantlysolarintheregion,rosebyoverone-thirdto40TWhin2021andissettoreacharound60TWhin2024,over4%oftotalelectricitygeneration.Thepaceofadditionsvarieswidelyacrosstheregion,withthebiggestincrementsbeingintheUnitedArabEmirates,IsraelandSaudiArabia,whilerenewabledeploymentinmuchoftherestoftheregionremainsslowtonon-existent.AnnualpowersectoremissionsintheMiddleEastfellslightlyin2021(mainlyduetogrowingnuclearoutput),butareprojectedtogrowby1.7%intotalfrom2022to2024andreachover740MtCO2.TheUnitedArabEmiratesandIsraelbothsawlowerelectricity-relatedemissionsin2021andareoncoursetoseeafurtherdropofover20%by2024(comparedwith2021),thankstonuclearandrenewablesdisplacinggasintheUnitedArabEmirates,andgasandrenewablesdisplacingcoalinIsrael.However,thisisoutweighedbyrisingpowersectoremissionselsewhereintheregion,primarilydrivenbyrapidlyincreasinggas-firedgeneration.Atthesametime,theemissionsintensityofpowergenerationfellbyover2%in2021andisexpectedtodeclinebyalmostafurther4%by2024(comparedwith2021)thankstothefallingshareofcoalandoilintheregion’selectricitymix.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE89RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.ElectricitydemandintheMiddleEastisexpectedtostabiliseinthemediumtermDevelopmentofelectricitydemand,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201520162017201820192020202120222023202420152016201720182019202020212022202320242015201620172018201920202021202220232024MiddleEastSaudiArabiaUnitedArabEmiratesElectricitydemandgrowthDemandDemandforecastElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE90RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.DemandintheMiddleEastisincreasinglymetbycleanersourcesChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024Developmentofemissionsintensity,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-60-40-200204060801002015201620172018201920202021202220232024MiddleEastChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchange010020030040050060070020152017201920212023CO₂intensity(gCO₂/kWh)MiddleEastSaudiArabiaUnitedArabEmiratesElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE91RegionalperspectiveIEA.Allrightsreserved.SaudiArabiaSaudiArabia’selectricitydemandfellbyalmost1%in2020asCovid-19-relatedmeasureslimiteddemandinthecommercialsectorandgovernmentoffices,whichwasonlypartiallyoffsetbygrowingconsumptionintheresidentialandindustrialsectors.Powerdemandreboundedsharplyandrecordeda10%year-on-yearincreaseinthefirsthalfof2021withtheliftingofrestrictionsandnormalisationofeconomicactivity.Forthefullyearweestimate6.5%growth.Fortheperiod2022-2024weexpectaveragegrowthofaround0.5%peryear,drivenbyagrowingnumberofgridconnectionsandexpandingindustrialdemand,buttemperedbyearlierpricereformsandmodestimprovementsinefficiency.Totalgenerationcapacityattheendof2019was80GW,withanother9GWscheduledtobeaddedduring2021-2024,ofwhich5.6GWaregas-firedand3.3GWarerenewables(mostlysolar).Gas-firedgenerationisprojectedtoriseby19%(21TWh)by2024comparedwith2021,whileoil-firedoutputdrops12%(22TWh)overthesameperiod.Theshareofoil-firedgenerationintheelectricitymixisprojectedtodropto38%by2024fromanestimated43%in2021,butremainsalongwayfrommeetingthegovernment’sgoalofeliminatingoilfrompowergenerationby2030.Renewablegenerationissettoexpandmorethanfourtimes2021levelsandapproach7TWh(or1.6%oftotalgeneration)by2024thankstoarobustprojectpipeline,includinga400MWwindfarm(DumatAl-Jandal)and3GWofsolarcapacityunderdevelopmentasof2021.UnitedArabEmiratesIntheUnitedArabEmirates,electricitydemanddroppedby2.4%in2020comparedwith2019duetothenegativeimpactofCovid-19oneconomicactivity.Weestimatethatdemandrecoveredbylessthan1%in2021andgrowthisexpectedtoremainweakovertheforecastperiod,averaginglessthan1%peryearduring2022-2024.Powerconsumptionishamperedbytheslowpaceofeconomicrecovery,higher-than-averageelectricityrateswithintheregionandaslowandgradualreturnofexpatriates(whosenumbersin2020droppedbyanestimated5%and8%inAbuDhabiandDubai,respectively,inthewakeofCovid-19).InstalledgenerationcapacityacrosstheUnitedArabEmiratestotalled33GWin2020,ofwhich92%wasgas-fired,6%solarand2%coal.Thefirst1.4GWblockofthe5.6GWBarakahnuclearpowerplantgeneratedsomeelectricityin2020,butonlystartedcommercialoperationsin2021;thereforeitwasnotcountedbythenationalutilityasavailablecapacityin2020.ThecompletionoftheremainingthreenuclearblocksatBarakah,threeadditional600MWcoal-firedunitsinDubaiandtheadditionofnearly4GWofsolarcapacitybytheendof2024willchangetheUAEelectricitymixconsiderably.Theshareofnaturalgasinthegenerationmixissettodropfromaround84%in2021to55%by2024.Atthesametime,thecontributionsfromnuclear(from7%to25%),coal(from3%to9%)andrenewables(from6%to11%)areallsettogrow.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE92IEA.Allrightsreserved.RegionalperspectiveGasandrenewablesdisplaceoilinSaudiArabia,whilenuclearandrenewablesdisplacegasintheUAEgenerationmixChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-40-30-20-100102030405020152016201720182019202020212022202320242015201620172018201920202021202220232024SaudiArabiaUnitedArabEmiratesChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchangeElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE93IEA.Allrightsreserved.RegionalperspectiveMarkettrendsinselectedotherMiddleEasterncountriesKuwait’selectricityconsumptionisexpectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof2%between2022and2024,drivenbyincreasingspacecoolingandwaterdesalinationrequirements.Allincrementalgenerationgrowthisfromgas-firedplants,enabledbytherecentcompletionofthe30bcmAlZourLNGterminal.Oil-firedgenerationandrenewableoutputareexpectedtostagnatethroughto2024.WeexpectIsrael’spowerdemandtoexpandonaverageby3.5%annuallyduring2022-2024,supportedbypopulationgrowth,increasedwaterdesalinationandelectrificationofenduses(especiallyinthetransportsector).Fuelledbytheanticipatedramp-upofproductionattheKarishgasfieldfrom2022,gas-firedgenerationgrowsbyover26%by2024(comparedto2021),whilecoal-firedgenerationfallsbyalmost70%withthephase-outofthe2.6GWOrotRabinplantby2024.Renewablegenerationalmostdoublestoreach11TWhin2024,ledbycontinuingsolaradditions.Iraq’selectricityconsumptionisexpectedtogrowatarapidrateofover6%peryearthroughto2024,asthecountryprogressivelyreducesitspowerdeficitwiththecompletionofatleastonegascaptureproject(Halfaya)andseveralgas-firedplantrevitalisationandexpansionprojects.Despiteambitiousplanstorampupsolargeneration,renewablesarenotexpectedtosignificantlycontributetoIraq’spowerrequirementsinthe2022-2024period.Qatar’spowerconsumptionissettoexpandatanannualaveragerateof3.6%duringthe2022-2024forecastperiod,drivenbypopulationgrowth,risingdemandforcoolingandwaterdesalination,andtheongoingexpansionofthecountry’sresidential,commercial,industrialandtransportinfrastructure.Incrementalgenerationwillmainlybefuelledbygas,supportedbythecompletionofthe2.6GWFacilityEprojectandtheramp-upofproductionatQatar’sBarzangasfield,whichisfullydedicatedtothedomesticmarket.Renewableswillalsogeneratemorethan1TWhby2024,followingthephasedramp-upofthe800MWAlKharsaahsolarprojectfromlate2021tomid-2022.Oman’spowerconsumptionisexpectedtoincreaseatanaverageannualrateofalmost3%during2022-2024,driveninpartbythestart-upofanew230000b/dexportrefineryatDuqmin2022.Gas-firedgenerationmeetsaroundtwo-thirdsofincrementaldemand.Therestislargelyfromrenewables,whichgrowrapidlyfromalowbasistoreach1TWhby2024.Bahrain,wherepracticallyallgenerationisgas-fired,isprojectedtoseerapidgrowthindemandatanannualaverageofalmost5%between2022and2024,theresultofsubstantialexpansionofgrid-connectedcapacityin2022.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE94IEA.Allrightsreserved.RegionalperspectiveAfricaElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE95IEA.Allrightsreserved.RegionalperspectiveAlthoughslowing,electricitydemandissettocontinuetogrowinAfricaElectricitydemandinAfricahasreboundedafterfallingin2020duetotheCovid-19pandemicanditsimpactontheeconomy–theIMFestimateda1.6%declineinrealGDP.Weestimategrowthinelectricitysupplyby5.6%in2021andcloseto5%in2022.ThisisdrivenbyhigherGDPgrowth(estimatedat5%,duetoanimprovementinglobaltradeandcommodityprices)andincreasedelectricityaccess,aswellasnewgenerationcapacity,whichshouldalleviatesomeofthepowersupplyshortagesseenacrosstheregion.However,thediscoveryoftheCovid-19Omicronvariantattheendof2021inSouthAfrica(acountryaccountingforalmost30%oftotalpowerdemandintheregion)andthesubsequentlyimposedmeasurestocontainthespreadofthenewvariantcouldsignificantlyimpacteconomicandconsequentlyelectricitysupplygrowth.Fortheperiod2022to2024weexpectaslowdowninannualgrowthindemandinAfrica,fallingtoaround3.5%onaverage.Themajorityofthenewcapacityduetocomeonlineoverthecomingyearstakestheformofahostofrenewableandgasprojectsthatarebeingdeployedacrossthecontinent.By2024thisresultsinanadditional50TWhofelectricityfromrenewables,reachinga26%shareoftotalgeneration,upfrom23%in2021andachievingasimilarleveltocoal-firedgeneration(decliningfrom28%in2021to26%in2024).Afteraslightincreaseincoal-firedgenerationin2021and2022(about1%annually),stemmingfromnewcoalunitscomingonlineinSouthAfrica,weexpectcoal-firedelectricitygenerationtoremainflatin2023and2024.Witharound25TWhofadditionalelectricitygenerationby2024(comparedwith2021),weexpectnaturalgas,thelargestsourceofelectricitysupplyinAfrica,tohaveastablemarketshareofaround38%between2022and2024.Significantlylessrelevantthancoalandgas,oilandoilderivativeshadan8%marketsharein2021;weseeaslowdecreaseinoutputofbelow1%annuallyonaverageinthe2022-2024period.TheKoebergnuclearplantinSouthAfricahadoneofitsunitsofflineformaintenanceduringtheheightofthelockdownin2020,butincreasedavailabilitymeantthattherewasaslightincreaseinnucleargenerationin2021.Forthecomingyearsweexpectnucleargenerationtoremainflat.Asrenewablesaresettosupplythemajorityofnetdemandgrowthbetween2022and2024(morethan60%),weexpectthecarbonintensityofelectricitygenerationtodeclinebyalmost2%onaverageduringtheperiod,reachingabout510gCO2perkWhin2024.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE96IEA.Allrightsreserved.RegionalperspectiveElectricitydemandinAfricaisexpectedtocontinuegrowingatmoderateratesDevelopmentofelectricitydemand,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%201520182021202420152018202120242015201820212024201520182021202420152018202120242015201820212024AfricaSouthAfricaEgyptAlgeriaMoroccoNigeriaElectricitydemandgrowthDemandDemandforecastElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE97IEA.Allrightsreserved.RegionalperspectiveNewrenewableandgasgenerationmeetsthemajorityofdemandgrowthinAfricaChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024Developmentofemissionsintensity,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-40-30-20-10010203040502015201620172018201920202021202220232024AfricaChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchange0100200300400500600700800900100020152017201920212023CO₂intensity(gCO₂/kWh)AfricaSouthAfricaEgyptAlgeriaMoroccoNigeriaElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE98IEA.Allrightsreserved.RegionalperspectiveSouthAfricaElectricitydemandinSouthAfricafellbyaround5%in2020.Inthefirsttenmonthsof2021itincreasedbyaround3%comparedwiththesameperiodin2020.However,thediscoveryoftheCovid-19OmicronvariantinthecountryattheendofNovemberandthesubsequentrestrictionsoninternationaltravelcouldhaveaffectedtherecoveryindemand.For2021weestimateademandgrowthofaround2.7%.SouthAfricacontinuestostrugglewithcapacityshortagesthathaveplaguedthecountry’selectricitysystemsince2014,causedbydecliningavailabilityofitsageingcoalfleetanddelaystotwolargenew-buildcoalplants.ThecompletionofthesenewbuildsatMedupiandKusilewillhelpaddresssomeofthecapacityissuesasthefinalunitsbegingeneratingovertheforecastperiod.Thelastofthemisexpectedtocomeonlinein2023.Thereare,however,concernsabouttheirreliability.InAugust2021,shortlyafterthefinalunitoftheMedupiplantwascommissioned,anexplosionoccurredwhichseverelydamagedtheunit.Itisnotexpectedtobebackonlineforoverayear,renderingitunusableforanindefiniteperiod.Thecommissioningofrenewablegenerationfromapreviousrenewableauctionaccountedforthebalanceofnewgenerationin2021.Theremaining929MWofrenewableprojectsareexpectedtocomeonlineby2024.Theongoingcapacityshortages,combinedwiththeireconomicimpacts,haveledtodecliningelectricitydemandaspersistentloadsheddinghasbecomethenormoverrecentyears.SouthAfricaisactivelytryingtoaddresscapacityshortageswiththeprocurementoffirmcapacityaspartoftheRiskManagementIPPProcurementProgramme(RMIPPPP).Theauctionawarded2GWofcapacitytoamixtureofrenewablescollocatedwithbatteries,andgas-firedplants.Themajoritywasawardedtothreepowershipssuppliedwithliquefiednaturalgas(LNG).Thisgenerationwasspecifiedtocomeonlineby2022,butunfortunatelyithasalreadybeendelayedduetothepostponementofthedeadlinefortheprojects’financialclose.Ithasbeenpushedbacktoaccommodateseveraldelaysintheprocess,suchasobtainingquotationsforgridconnection,generationlicencesandotherpermits.DifficultiesincludethefailureofthethreepowershipstoobtainthenecessaryenvironmentalpermitstogenerateelectricityatthreedifferentSouthAfricanports,whicharecurrentlyappealingthedecisionbySouthAfricanenvironmentalauthoritiestorejecttheirapplication.Thismeansthatthecapacityisonlylikelytocomeonlinetowardstheendoftheforecastperiod.Thelatestrenewableauction(BidWindow5oftheREIPPProcurementProgramme)hasbeenconcluded,thepreferredbiddershavingbeenannouncedattheendofOctober2021.Theexacttimingofoperationisnotyetcertain,butitisnotexpectedbefore2024.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE99IEA.Allrightsreserved.RegionalperspectiveNewpolicymayhelpaddresscapacityissuesintheshortterm,aslicensingobligationsforembeddedgeneration(i.e.demand-sidegeneration)havebeenrelaxed.Theynowallowplantsthataresmallerthan100MWtoconnecttothegridforself-consumptionandforthesaleofexcesspowertothegridwithoutapplyingforageneratinglicence.Anumberoflargeindustrialcustomershavealreadyannouncedplanstobuildplantstopowertheirownoperationsinresponsetothisevolutioninpolicy.Thebroaderimpactofthisannouncementondemandremainstobeseen;however,asacountrywithamajorenergyshortage,SouthAfricacouldexpecttoseeaboostindemandascapacityissuesarealleviatedbyprojectsbuiltoutsidethetraditionalauctionprocess.EgyptElectricityconsumptioninEgyptinthefirsthalfof2021recoveredfromits2%dipin2020,withanestimatedgrowthrateofcloseto9%year-on-year.For2021,weestimateafull-yeardemandgrowthofover8%.Growthindemandforelectricityhasgenerallyslowedinrecentyearsassubsidiesdiminishedandpricesrose,aspartoftheEgyptiangovernment’sobjectivetograduallyphaseoutenergysubsidiesby2025.ThelatestrevisiontookplaceinJuly2021,resultinginanaverage13%increaseinpricesforvariouscustomersegments.Thecountryaimstobecomearegionalelectricityhubbydevelopingamorediversifiedsupplymixandmultiplyingitsinterconnectorswithneighbouringcountries.A3GWinterconnectorprojectwassignedwithSaudiArabiainOctober2021,commissioningexpectedin2024,andamemorandumofunderstandingwassignedinthesamemonthtobuilda2GWinterconnectorwithCyprusandGreece.Additionalprojectsareunderwaytofurtherincreaseexistingcross-bordercapacitywithLibya(fromthecurrent240MWto2-3GW),supplementingthenewlycommissionedinterconnectorwithSudan(capacityupfrom80MWto300MW).Thecountrycurrentlyreliesonoilandgasforitselectricitysupply,withastrongramp-upofnaturalgas-firedcapacityoverrecentyears(providingupto90%oftotalgeneration).Egypthassetatargetof42%ofelectricitysupplytocomefromrenewablesourcesby2035aspartofitsIntegratedSustainableEnergyStrategy,withanintermediate20%sharetargetby2022.Diversificationalsoincludesthedevelopmentofthecountry’sfirstnuclearpowerplant,the4.8GWElDabaafacility,whichisexpectedtostartoperationsin2026.AlgeriaAlgeria’selectricityconsumptionhasgrownatastrongpaceinrecentyearsduetothecombinationofheavilysubsidisedtariffs(accountingfortwo-thirdsofproductioncostsonaverage)andanambitiouselectrificationpolicy–coveragereached98%ofthepopulationasoftheendof2019.Theenergyregulator,CREG,expectsinitscentralplanningscenarioanaverageannualgrowthElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE100IEA.Allrightsreserved.Regionalperspectiverateofelectricitydemandof4.3%to2030,comparedwithanaverageof5.7%peryearoverthepastdecade.Electricitysupplyisheavilyreliantondomesticgasresources,whichaccountfor97%oftheproductionmix.Thecostoffuelsubsidies,alongsidehighratesofnon-payment,hasledtoastrongincreaseinthenationalelectricitycompany’sdebtandcastsashadowoverthesystem’ssustainability,whichhasbeenquestionedbysuccessiveministers.Thedevelopmentofrenewableproductioncapacitywasidentifiedasanopportunitytoalleviatethecostofelectricity.Thecountry’senergytransitionstrategysetsanobjectiveof16GWofrenewablecapacityby2035,withamedium-termtargetof4GWby2024.Attheendof2021,theAlgerianMinistryofEnergyTransitionandRenewableEnergiesselected11sitesfortheinstallationof1GWofsolarcapacity.MoroccoTheimpactsofCovid-19in2020sawannualdemandforelectricitydeclinebyover1.2%year-on-year,withannualpeakdemandfallingby1.5%relativeto2019.Bothpeakdemandanddemandvolumereboundedin2021,whenweestimatedemandtohavegrownbyaround3%.Meanwhile,aheatwaveinMoroccoinJuly2021ledtoanewrecordinpeakdemandinthecountry(4.3%increaseon2020),attributedtointensiveuseofairconditioningandagriculturalpumpingforirrigation.BothoftheseendusesareexpectedtocontinuetodrivepeakcapacityrequirementsinMoroccointhecomingyears.Moroccohasseenmajorgrowthinrenewablesoverthepastdecade,theshareofrenewableenergyinthegenerationmixincreasingfromonly6%in2008toaround20%in2020.Thiswillonlyincreaseoverthenextfewyears,asMoroccohasalreadystateditsambitionstoexpandtheshareofgenerationfromrenewablesbeyond52%by2030.Thistrendcontinuedin2021withthecommissioningofnewwind(300MW)andsolarPV(130MW)projects,whichareestimatedtoincreasetheshareofrenewablestoover26%.Weexpectthisgrowthtocontinueintotheforecastperiodthankstonewwind,solarPVandpumped-storagehydroplantsettocomeonlineby2024,accordingtotheMinistryofEnergy,MinesandEnvironment.Thiswillhelptodisplacecoal,andlatergas,fromthegenerationmix,leadingtoa36%shareofrenewablesby2024.Despitethecurrentgrowthinrenewables,60%ofMorocco’sgenerationmixwasstillestimatedtocomefromcoalin2021,while11%wasfromgas.Along-standingcontractforgassupplyfromAlgeriatoSpain,whichtransitsthroughMorocco,endedinOctober2021,theAlgerianpresidentTabounneconfirmingthatgasexportswillnowswitchtoaroutethatavoidsMorocco,therebycuttingoffAlgeriangastoMorocco.Priortothisannouncement,MoroccowasalreadyconsideringoptionsincaseofterminationofAlgeriansupply.Theseincludeshort-termoptionssuchasusingLNG,andElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE101IEA.Allrightsreserved.Regionalperspectiveothersinthemediumtolongtermrelyingonthedevelopmentofdomesticgasproductionandnewimportinfrastructureaspartofthenationalroadmapforthedevelopmentofnaturalgas2021-2050.NigeriaAccesstoelectricityremainsamajorissueinNigeria.Anestimated85millionpeoplehavenoaccesstogridelectricity,representingover40%ofthepopulation,oneofthelargestenergyaccessdeficitsintheworld.TheNigerianelectricitysectorisfacingoperationalconstraints,includinginsufficientaccesstonaturalgas(whichaccountsforaround80%ofelectricitygeneration),lackofcost-reflectivetariffs,inadequatemeteringofconsumers,poorcollectionratesandmassivedebts.ThefederalgovernmentofNigeriahasinitiatedreformsintheelectricitysectortoincreaserevenue,includingaplannedphase-outoftariffsubsidiesby2022.Electricitytariffsquadrupledbetween2015and2020andanotherincreaseisexpectedattheendof2021orearlyin2022tobridgethesubsidygap,whichisofficiallyestimatedataboutUSD73millionpermonth.Despiteaninstalledcapacityof13GW,comprisingmainlygasandhydrocapacity,theNigerianelectricitysystemsuffersfromlowgenerationavailabilityduetogassupplyissuesincombinationwithbottlenecksinthetransmissionsystem.Asaresult,currentlyonlyabout11%ofelectricitydemandisbeingsupplied.InSeptember2021forexample,Nigeria’speakserveddemandwasonly3.9GW,althoughtheestimatedpeakdemandwas30GW.ThiswasaresultofpeakgenerationcapacityasofSeptember2021beingonly4.7GW,whichincludescapacityforexports.Anambitiouselectricitydevelopmentplan,thePresidentialPowerInitiative,waslaunchedin2019withSiemensandthesupportoftheGermanExportCreditAgency,itsobjectivebeingtoraiseNigeria’savailablegenerationcapacityto25GWby2025.Implementationoftheprojecthasbeendelayed,however,anditsfirstphase,whichtargetedaseriesofquickactionstodebottleneckcurrenttransmissioncapacityby2021,wasstillonlyinitsearlypre-engineeringstageasoftheendof2021.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE102IEA.Allrightsreserved.RegionalperspectiveThedevelopmentofthegenerationmixvariessignificantlybetweenAfricancountriesChangeinelectricitygeneration,2015-2024IEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.-20-15-10-505101520201520182021202420152018202120242015201820212024SouthAfricaEgyptAlgeriaChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)CoalGasNuclearOthernon-renewablesRenewablesNetchange-6-4-20246820152018202120242015201820212024MoroccoNigeriaChangeinelectricitygeneration(TWh)ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE103IEA.Allrightsreserved.AnnexAnnexElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE104IEA.Allrightsreserved.AnnexSummarytable:DemandRegionalbreakdownofelectricitydemand,2019-2024TWh2019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Africa732717757842-2.1%5.6%3.6%Americas6166597862076373-3.0%3.8%0.9%ofwhichUnitedStates4187405441854214-3.2%3.2%0.2%AsiaPacific119851224313239149192.1%8.1%4.1%ofwhichChina720274988242493684.1%9.9%4.4%Eurasia1421138914711543-2.2%5.9%1.6%Europe3601345836093704-4.0%4.4%0.9%ofwhichEuropeanUnion2733261427202771-4.4%4.1%0.6%MiddleEast1123112011601236-0.3%3.6%2.1%World25028249042644428618-0.5%6.2%2.7%Notes:CAAGR=compoundaverageannualgrowthrate.FortheentireperiodtheEuropeanUnionreflectsthecurrent27memberstates.Differencesintotalsareduetorounding.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.PAGE105IEA.Allrightsreserved.AnnexElectricityMarketReport–January2022Summarytable:Supplyandemissions,worldBreakdownofelectricitysectorsupplyandemissions,world,2019-2024TWh2019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Nuclear2790268227772869-3.9%3.5%1.1%Coal991495201033710415-4.0%8.6%0.3%Gas6346627664106549-1.1%2.1%0.7%Othernon-renewables98099410239151.4%3.0%-3.6%Totalrenewables70157449791399066.2%6.2%7.8%Totalgeneration270442692128437306542.5%5.7%2.5%MtCO22019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Totalemissions12603121921302213088-3.3%6.8%0.2%Notes:CAAGR=compoundaverageannualgrowthrate.Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Differencesintotalsareduetorounding.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.PAGE106IEA.Allrightsreserved.AnnexElectricityMarketReport–January2022Summarytable:Supplyandemissions,AsiaPacificBreakdownofelectricitysectorsupplyandemissions,AsiaPacific,2019-2024TWh2019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Nuclear6476536948151.0%6.3%5.5%Coal74567465806285080.1%8.0%1.8%Gas14841487151115560.2%1.6%1.0%Othernon-renewables2322512622128.0%4.4%-6.7%Totalrenewables29693187351646427.3%10.3%9.7%Totalgeneration127871304214044157333.9%7.7%3.9%MtCO22019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Totalemissions76417652821186110.1%7.3%1.6%Notes:CAAGR=compoundaverageannualgrowthrate.Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Differencesintotalsareduetorounding.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.PAGE107IEA.Allrightsreserved.AnnexElectricityMarketReport–January2022Summarytable:Supplyandemissions,AmericasBreakdownofelectricitysectorsupplyandemissions,Americas,2019-2024TWh2019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Nuclear980957940926-2.4%-1.8%-0.5%Coal12059531115906-21.0%17.0%-6.7%Gas21532170215021320.8%-0.9%-0.3%Othernon-renewables234209220196-10.9%5.4%-3.8%Totalrenewables21182216230227324.6%3.9%5.9%Totalgeneration6690650467276892-2.8%3.4%0.8%MtCO22019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Totalemissions2188193520911877-11.6%8.1%-3.5%Notes:CAAGR=compoundaverageannualgrowthrate.Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Differencesintotalsareduetorounding.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.PAGE108IEA.Allrightsreserved.AnnexElectricityMarketReport–January2022Summarytable:Supplyandemissions,EuropeBreakdownofelectricitysectorsupplyandemissions,Europe,2019-2024TWh2019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Nuclear848757803742-10.7%6.0%-2.6%Coal659530590421-19.5%11.3%-10.7%Gas762750781783-1.6%4.2%0.1%Othernon-renewables120118122108-1.5%3.4%-4.1%Totalrenewables14511559156819237.4%0.6%7.0%Totalgeneration3840371438653976-3.3%4.1%1.0%MtCO22019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Totalemissions966837906735-13.4%8.2%-6.7%Notes:CAAGR=compoundaverageannualgrowthrate.Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Differencesintotalsareduetorounding.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.PAGE109IEA.Allrightsreserved.AnnexElectricityMarketReport–January2022Summarytable:Supplyandemissions,AfricaBreakdownofelectricitysectorsupplyandemissions,Africa,2019-2024TWh2019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Nuclear13121313-6.6%5.1%0.6%Coal260246247252-5.3%0.4%0.6%Gas334324339365-3.0%4.6%2.5%Othernon-renewables78728083-8.5%11.4%1.3%Totalrenewables1701861992509.0%7.4%7.8%Totalgeneration8568408789633.1%4.5%3.1%MtCO22019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Totalemissions484459474494-5.2%3.4%1.4%Notes:CAAGR=compoundaverageannualgrowthrate.Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Differencesintotalsareduetorounding.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.PAGE110IEA.Allrightsreserved.AnnexElectricityMarketReport–January2022Summarytable:Supplyandemissions,MiddleEastBreakdownofelectricitysectorsupplyandemissions,MiddleEast,2019-2024TWh2019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Nuclear771743-3.0%139.9%37.3%Coal232322190.3%-4.8%-4.9%Gas915886913967-3.1%3.1%1.9%Othernon-renewables2993263202989.1%-2.0%-2.3%Totalrenewables32304162-6.3%36.1%15.1%Totalgeneration1275127213121389-0.3%3.2%1.9%MtCO22019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Totalemissions7167277327441.5%0.7%0.6%Notes:CAAGR=compoundaverageannualgrowthrate.Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Differencesintotalsareduetorounding.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.PAGE111IEA.Allrightsreserved.AnnexElectricityMarketReport–January2022Summarytable:Supplyandemissions,EurasiaBreakdownofelectricitysectorsupplyandemissions,Eurasia,2019-2024TWh2019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Nuclear2942953103310.2%5.0%2.2%Coal312304302310-2.8%-0.5%0.9%Gas699660715745-5.6%8.4%1.4%Othernon-renewables1618201812.3%7.7%-3.4%Totalrenewables274274287298-0.2%4.7%1.3%Totalgeneration15961550163317011.4%5.3%1.4%MtCO22019202020212024Growthrate2020Growthrate2021CAAGR2022-2024Totalemissions608583608627-4.0%4.3%1.0%Notes:CAAGR=compoundaverageannualgrowthrate.Othernon-renewablesincludesoil,wasteandothernon-renewableenergysources.Differencesintotalsareduetorounding.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromIEA(2022),Dataandstatistics.PAGE112AnnexIEA.Allrightsreserved.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022RegionalandcountrygroupingsAfrica–Algeria,Angola,Benin,Botswana,Cameroon,Congo,DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,Côted’Ivoire,Egypt,EquatorialGuinea,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Gabon,Ghana,Kenya,Libya,Mauritius,Morocco,Mozambique,Namibia,Niger,Nigeria,Senegal,SouthAfrica,SouthSudan,Sudan,UnitedRepublicofTanzania,Togo,Tunisia,Zambia,ZimbabweandotherAfricancountriesandterritories.1AsiaPacific–Australia,Bangladesh,BruneiDarussalam,Cambodia,ChineseTaipei,India,Indonesia,Japan,Korea,DemocraticPeople’sRepublicofKorea,LaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic,Malaysia,Mongolia,Myanmar,Nepal,NewZealand,Pakistan,People’sRepublicofChina,2Philippines,Singapore,SriLanka,Thailand,VietNamandotherAsiancountries,territoriesandeconomies.3CentralandSouthAmerica–Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,CostaRica,Cuba,Curaçao,DominicanRepublic,Ecuador,ElSalvador,Guatemala,Haiti,Honduras,Jamaica,Nicaragua,Panama,Paraguay,Peru,Suriname,TrinidadandTobago,Uruguay,VenezuelaandotherLatinAmericancountriesandterritories.4Eurasia–Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,RepublicofMoldova,RussianFederation,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,UkraineandUzbekistan.Europe–Albania,Austria,Belgium,BosniaandHerzegovina,Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,5,6CzechRepublic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,NorthMacedonia,France,Germany,Gibraltar,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Italy,Kosovo,7Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,Montenegro,Netherlands,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Serbia,SlovakRepublic,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,TurkeyandUnitedKingdom.EuropeanUnion–Austria,Belgium,Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,5,6CzechRepublic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Ireland,Italy,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,Netherlands,Poland,Portugal,Romania,SlovakRepublic,Slovenia,SpainandSweden.MiddleEast–Bahrain,IslamicRepublicofIran,Iraq,Israel,8Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,SaudiArabia,SyrianArabRepublic,UnitedArabEmiratesandYemen.NorthAfrica–Algeria,Egypt,Libya,MoroccoandTunisia.NorthAmerica–Canada,MexicoandUnitedStates.SoutheastAsia–BruneiDarussalam,Cambodia,Indonesia,LaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic,Malaysia,Myanmar,Philippines,Singapore,ThailandandVietNam.ThesecountriesareallmembersoftheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN).PAGE113AnnexIEA.Allrightsreserved.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022Advancedeconomies–OECDmembernations,plusBulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,MaltaandRomania.Emergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies–Allothercountriesnotincludedintheadvancedeconomiesregionalgrouping.1Individualdataarenotavailableandareestimatedinaggregatefor:BurkinaFaso,Burundi,CapeVerde,CentralAfricanRepublic,Chad,Comoros,Djibouti,Gambia,Guinea,Guinea-Bissau,Lesotho,Liberia,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Reunion,Rwanda,SaoTomeandPrincipe,Seychelles,SierraLeone,Somalia,EswatiniandUganda.2IncludingHongKong.3Individualdataarenotavailableandareestimatedinaggregatefor:Afghanistan,Bhutan,CookIslands,Fiji,FrenchPolynesia,Kiribati,Macau(China),Maldives,NewCaledonia,Palau,PapuaNewGuinea,Samoa,SolomonIslands,Timor-Leste,TongaandVanuatu.4Individualdataarenotavailableandareestimatedinaggregatefor:Anguilla,AntiguaandBarbuda,Aruba,Bahamas,Barbados,Belize,Bermuda,BritishVirginIslands,CaymanIslands,Dominica,FalklandIslands(Malvinas),Grenada,Guyana,Montserrat,Saba,SaintEustatius,SaintKittsandNevis,SaintLucia,SaintPierreandMiquelon,SaintVincentandtheGrenadines,SintMaarten,andtheTurksandCaicosIslands.5NotebyTurkey:Theinformationinthisdocumentwithreferenceto“Cyprus”relatestothesouthernpartoftheIsland.ThereisnosingleauthorityrepresentingbothTurkishandGreekCypriotpeopleontheIsland.TurkeyrecognisestheTurkishRepublicofNorthernCyprus(TRNC).UntilalastingandequitablesolutionisfoundwithinthecontextofUnitedNations,Turkeyshallpreserveitspositionconcerningthe“Cyprusissue”.6NotebyalltheEuropeanUnionMemberStatesoftheOECDandtheEuropeanUnion:TheRepublicofCyprusisrecognisedbyallmembersoftheUnitedNationswiththeexceptionofTurkey.TheinformationinthisdocumentrelatestotheareaundertheeffectivecontroloftheGovernmentoftheRepublicofCyprus.7Thedesignationiswithoutprejudicetopositionsonstatus,andisinlinewiththeUnitedNationsSecurityCouncilResolution1244/99andtheAdvisoryOpinionoftheInternationalCourtofJusticeonKosovo’sdeclarationofIndependence.8ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityoftherelevantIsraeliauthorities.TheuseofsuchdatabytheOECDand/ortheIEAiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraelisettlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE114AnnexIEA.Allrightsreserved.AbbreviationsandacronymsASEANAssociationofSoutheastAsianNationsANEELBrazilianElectricityRegulatoryAgencyCAAGRCompoundaverageannualgrowthrate.ThroughoutthereportwerefertotheCAAGRwhentalkingaboutaveragegrowth.CBAMCarbonAdjustmentBorderMechanismCCGTcombinedcyclegasturbineCCUSCarboncapture,utilisationandstorageCEACentralElectricityAuthority(India)CREGCommissionforElectricityandGasRegulation(Algeria)CO2carbondioxideEGATElectricityGeneratingAuthorityofThailandERCOTElectricReliabilityCouncilofTexasESESElectricitySecurityEventScaleETSemissionstradingschemeEUEuropeanUnionEUETSEuropeanUnionEmissionsTradingSystemFERCFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission(US)GCCGulfCooperationCouncilGDPgrossdomesticproductGHGgreenhousegasIEAInternationalEnergyAgencyIMFInternationalMonetaryFundIPCCIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeIPPindependentpowerproducerKETSKoreaEmissionsTradingSchemeLNGliquefiednaturalgasLT-LEDSlong-termlow-emissiondevelopmentstrategiesNDCnationallydeterminedcontributionNERCNorthAmericanElectricReliabilityCorporation(US)NZEnetzeroemissionsOECDOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentPLNPerusahaanListrikNegaraPPApowerpurchaseagreementREIPPPPRenewableEnergyIndependentPowerProducerProcurementProgramme(SouthAfrica)RMIPPPPRiskMitigationIndependentPowerProducerProcurementProgrammeRUPTLElectricitySupplyBusinessPlan(Indonesia)PVphotovoltaicElectricityMarketReport–January2022PAGE115AnnexIEA.Allrightsreserved.SPPSouthwestPowerPool(US)TTFTitleTransferFacilityUAEUnitedArabEmiratesUKUnitedKingdomUKETSUKEmissionsTradingSchemeUNFCCUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeUSUnitedStatesVREvariablerenewableenergyWBWorldBankUnitsofmeasurementGtCO2gigatonneofcarbondioxideGWgigawattkmkilometrekWhkilowatthourMBtumillionBritishthermalunitsMtCO2milliontonnesofcarbondioxideMWmegawattMWhmegawatthourgCO2grammeofcarbondioxidetCO2-eqtonneofcarbondioxideequivalentTWhterawatthourPAGE116AnnexIEA.Allrightsreserved.ElectricityMarketReport–January2022Acknowledgements,contributorsandcreditsThispublicationhasbeenpreparedbytheGas,CoalandPowerMarkets(GCP)DivisionoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).Thepublicationwasledandco-ordinatedbyStefanLorenczik,EnergyAnalystforElectricity.StefanLorenczik,JavierJorqueraCopier,PabloHevia-KochandZoeHungerfordarethemainauthors.Thereportalsobenefitedfromanalysis,dataandinputfromChiaraD’Adamo,CarlosFernándezAlvarez,LouisChambeau,Jean-BaptisteDubreuil,KeithEverhart,DanhakGu,JuliaGuyon,CraigHart,TetsuroHattori,SonghoJeon,KazuhiroKurumi,JinsunLim,LuisLopez,AkosLosz,SaraMoarif,GergelyMolnár,LucaLoRe,GabrielSaive,EnriqueGutierrezTavarez,PeerapatVithayasrichareonandJacquesWarichet.KeisukeSadamori,directoroftheIEAEnergyMarketsandSecurity(EMS)Directorate,andPeterFraser,HeadofGCP,providedexpertguidanceandadvice.FurtherIEAcolleaguesprovidedvaluableinput,commentsandfeedback,inparticularSrivatsanAnand,HeymiBahar,PaoloFrankl,TimGould,PaulineHenriot,CésarAlejandroHernándezAlva,DoyobKim,KazuhiroKurumi,KevinLane,BrianMotherway,FabianVoswinkelandBrentWanner.TimelyandcomprehensivedatafromtheEnergyDataCentrewerefundamentaltothereport.TheauthorswouldalsoliketothankJustinFrench-BrooksforskilfullyeditingthemanuscriptandtheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice,inparticularAstridDumond,TalineShahinian,IsabelleNonain-Semelin,JadMouawad,JethroMullen,GregoryViscusiandThereseWalsh.Severalinternationalexpertsprovidedinputand/orreviewedthedraftreport.Theirsuggestionsandcommentswereveryvaluable.Theyinclude:ManuelBaritaud(EuropeanInvestmentBank),BrentDixon(IdahoNationalLaboratory),GaneshDoluweera(CanadaEnergyRegulator),MichaelHogan(TheRegulatoryAssistanceProject),FranciscoLaverón(Iberdrola),EnriqueDeLasMorenasMoneo(ENEL),ManabuNabeshima(MinistryofForeignAffairs,Japan),EmmanuelNeau(EDFR&D),VasilisPapandreou(ACER),EnzoSaumaSantis(PontificiaUniversidadCatólicadeChile),FereidoonSioshansi(MenloEnergyEconomics),CarlosToro(MinistryofEnergyofChile),LaurensdeVries(DelftUniversityofTechnology),MatthewWittenstein(UnitedNationsESCAP)andRinaBohleZeller(Vestas).Theindividualsandorganisationsthatcontributedtothisreportarenotresponsibleforanyopinionorjudgementitcontains.AnyerrororomissionisthesoleresponsibilityoftheIEA.Forquestionsandcomments,pleasecontactGCP(gcp@iea.org).ThispublicationreflectstheviewsoftheIEASecretariatbutdoesnotnecessarilyreflectthoseofindividualIEAmembercountries.TheIEAmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,inrespectofthepublication’scontents(includingitscompletenessoraccuracy)andshallnotberesponsibleforanyuseof,orrelianceon,thepublication.Unlessotherwiseindicated,allmaterialpresentedinfiguresandtablesisderivedfromIEAdataandanalysis.Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.IEAPublicationsInternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.orgContactinformation:www.iea.org/about/contactIEA.Allrightsreserved.TypesetinFrancebyIEA–January2022Coverdesign:IEA

1、当您付费下载文档后，您只拥有了使用权限，并不意味着购买了版权，文档只能用于自身使用，不得用于其他商业用途（如 [转卖]进行直接盈利或[编辑后售卖]进行间接盈利）。
2、本站所有内容均由合作方或网友上传，本站不对文档的完整性、权威性及其观点立场正确性做任何保证或承诺！文档内容仅供研究参考，付费前请自行鉴别。
3、如文档内容存在违规，或者侵犯商业秘密、侵犯著作权等，请点击“违规举报”。

碎片内容

碳中和的最新文档