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COLUMBIA GLOBAL ENERGY DIALOGUE

Background

On October 18, 2021, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) hosted a

special session of the Natural Gas Forum on the global nature of the current unexpected gas

crisis, which has sparked chaos in many parts of the world. A number of factors have been put

forward to explain the crisis, including a faster-than-expected pandemic recovery in economic

demand that has precipitated global supply chain issues, extreme weather conditions around

the world, and liquiﬁed natural gas (LNG) facility outages. The forum was an opportunity for

participants to discuss the underlying causes of the global gas crisis and its long-term market,

policy, and political implications. The discussion started with outlooks for the winter across

the European Union, Russia, the United States, and East Asia before turning to a debate over

any longer-term implications of the natural gas crisis on the energy transition.

The forum’s participants included policy makers and senior leaders from major international

agencies, energy companies, ﬁnancial institutions, civil society organizations, academia, and

nongovernmental organizations. This summary of the proceeding begins with the broad

takeaways of the discussion, which occurred on a non-attribution basis under the Chatham

House Rule, and then delves into regional issues and the future of natural gas.

MARKET, POLICY, AND POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

OF THE GLOBAL NATURAL GAS CRISIS:

FORUM REPORT

BY HON XING WONG, SAMANTHA LANG, AND ERIN M. BLANTON

NOVEMBER 2021

www.energypolicy.columbia.edu

@ColumbiaUEnergy

MARKET, POLICY, AND POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE GLOBAL NATURAL GAS CRISIS

2 | ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | NOVEMBER 2021

Key Takeaways

Blame and Fear Exacerbate the Crisis

Many participants emphasized that there is too much focus on who is to blame for the crisis

and not enough on how to prevent the situation from recurring. Anxiety and situational issues

appear to be feeding the frenzied price increase: one observer commented that current

prices include a fear premium reﬂecting both the harsh outlook for the coming winter and

uncertainty over adequate gas inventories. The threat of limited gas supply is more signiﬁcant

in light of winter’s approach. A key message from the forum was that if the coming winter is

mild, prices will drop rapidly.

Structural Issues and an Investment Gap

Participants generally agreed that low gas prices in recent years had discouraged investments

in the energy industry and contributed to the global gas supply shortage. The lower

investment combined with a lack of alternatives for fuel switching (due to a tight coal market,

low wind generation, and low hydropower generation) led to the current price environment.

Many industry participants called for policy measures that incentivize investment in gas

supplies and infrastructure development, such as pipelines and storage capacity, during

periods of sustained low prices. Additionally, some questioned whether coal, given its relative

ease of use for fuel switching with gas compared to renewable energy sources, could be

making a comeback—a prospect lent greater credence by a recent increase in coal use, even

as world leaders gather at the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference to discuss

lower-carbon commitments.1

From the demand side, energy consumption continues to grow as the post-pandemic

economic recovery proceeds faster than expected. Participants highlighted the need for

demand-side policies to be given greater consideration, especially because natural gas use in

many countries is projected to increase, at least in the short term. For example, one observer

noted that if the EU had implemented a building retroﬁt program in 2009 after the Ukraine

gas crisis, it would have reduced EU annual gas demand by an estimated 20 billion cubic

meters per year and helped to alleviate the current gas crisis.

Given the growing gap between the ambition of where the world wants to be with regard to

climate change action and the reality of what is happening, forum participants agreed that

greater investment in the energy industry is needed. The environmental, geopolitical, and

economic implications of this investment gap are manifesting in unforeseen ways—the current

global gas crisis being one example. However, participants expressed dierent views on where

new investment is most needed. These dierences align with actions by the EU in doubling

down on renewable energy and an accelerated transition away from fossil fuels versus many

emerging economies focusing investment on natural gas.

Energy Poverty No Longer Limited to Developing Countries

A theme throughout the discussion was how energy poverty has become a truly global

problem. Some participants observed that the most vulnerable populations in Europe will

MARKET, POLICY, AND POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE GLOBAL NATURAL GAS CRISIS

ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | NOVEMBER 2021 | 3

need emergency ﬁnancial support to help pay for electricity and heating to get through

this winter. This situation has already prompted European governments to take actions in

dierent forms, including energy grants, rebates on taris, or taris being frozen for at least

the coming winter.2 In countries seeking to accelerate a move away from fossil fuel use,

some participants called for de-risking instruments to adjust for price volatilities and prevent

excessively high prices that could lead to demand destruction and further energy poverty.

Additionally, many discussants highlighted the tension between climate change and energy

access policies, with one observer arguing that securing aordable and reliable energy is

prevailing over climate ambition. In any case, this tension may cast doubt over the pace and

decarbonization pathways of the energy transition.

Outlook for Winter: Regional Perspectives

Natural gas is used for heating in some regions, and therefore gas demand is higher in those

places during the winter. Importing regions, especially Europe, could be particularly exposed

to high gas prices and disruptions if this winter is extremely cold.

Europe

As EU politicians prepare to pass major climate policies such as the Fit for 55 legislative

package, which sets out the EU’s transition plan to reduce emissions by at least 55 percent by

2030, the political ramiﬁcations of high gas prices, which are passed on to consumers as high

electricity prices, is an immediate concern. As one expert noted, the European Commission

believes it is essential for consumers to buy into the energy transition, making the high gas

and power prices, which have triggered fears of a repeat of the 2018 yellow jacket protests,3

very worrying.

With coal and oil energy markets already squeezed, little can be done collectively in terms

of fuel switching. As such, some industrial energy users in the United Kingdom and parts of

continental Europe have reduced output in sectors such as fertilizer production, which may

portend further demand curtailment this winter. Although improved wind and hydropower

generation could help alleviate this situation, such power depends on weather conditions and,

as one commentator remarked, is simply wishful thinking. The same commenter observed that

although current gas storage levels are about 77 percent of capacity,4 lower than the 5-year

average of 90 percent,5 gas inventories should be sucient for a normal winter—a harsher

winter, however, could change that assessment.

The question of whether Russia can step in to ﬁll the gas shortage in Europe has dominated

the press and market movements.6 But even if Russian stakeholders were willing to help, it

would be at the expense of their own preparations for the winter ahead.

Russia

Given low Russian gas storage volumes coming out of the spring this year, the situation in

Russia mirrors that of Europe. As one participant highlighted, the situation that Gazprom,

Russia’s majority state-owned gas company, now ﬁnds itself in is a case study of how low

prices have discouraged investment in new gas projects. For years, the company had deferred

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COLUMBIAGLOBALENERGYDIALOGUEBackgroundOnOctober18,2021,ColumbiaUniversity’sCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicy(CGEP)hostedaspecialsessionoftheNaturalGasForumontheglobalnatureofthecurrentunexpectedgascrisis,whichhassparkedchaosinmanypartsoftheworld.Anumberoffactorshavebeenputforwardtoexplainthecrisis,includingafaster-than-expectedpandemicrecoveryineconomicdemandthathasprecipitatedglobalsupplychainissues,extremeweatherconditionsaroundtheworld,andliquifiednaturalgas(LNG)facilityoutages.Theforumwasanopportunityforparticipantstodiscusstheunderlyingcausesoftheglobalgascrisisanditslong-termmarket,policy,andpoliticalimplications.ThediscussionstartedwithoutlooksforthewinteracrosstheEuropeanUnion,Russia,theUnitedStates,andEastAsiabeforeturningtoadebateoveranylonger-termimplicationsofthenaturalgascrisisontheenergytransition.Theforum’sparticipantsincludedpolicymakersandseniorleadersfrommajorinternationalagencies,energycompanies,financialinstitutions,civilsocietyorganizations,academia,andnongovernmentalorganizations.Thissummaryoftheproceedingbeginswiththebroadtakeawaysofthediscussion,whichoccurredonanon-attributionbasisundertheChathamHouseRule,andthendelvesintoregionalissuesandthefutureofnaturalgas.MARKET,POLICY,ANDPOLITICALIMPLICATIONSOFTHEGLOBALNATURALGASCRISIS:FORUMREPORTBYHONXINGWONG,SAMANTHALANG,ANDERINM.BLANTONNOVEMBER2021www.energypolicy.columbia.edu@ColumbiaUEnergyMARKET,POLICY,ANDPOLITICALIMPLICATIONSOFTHEGLOBALNATURALGASCRISIS2ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUNOVEMBER2021KeyTakeawaysBlameandFearExacerbatetheCrisisManyparticipantsemphasizedthatthereistoomuchfocusonwhoistoblameforthecrisisandnotenoughonhowtopreventthesituationfromrecurring.Anxietyandsituationalissuesappeartobefeedingthefrenziedpriceincrease:oneobservercommentedthatcurrentpricesincludeafearpremiumreflectingboththeharshoutlookforthecomingwinteranduncertaintyoveradequategasinventories.Thethreatoflimitedgassupplyismoresignificantinlightofwinter’sapproach.Akeymessagefromtheforumwasthatifthecomingwinterismild,priceswilldroprapidly.StructuralIssuesandanInvestmentGapParticipantsgenerallyagreedthatlowgaspricesinrecentyearshaddiscouragedinvestmentsintheenergyindustryandcontributedtotheglobalgassupplyshortage.Thelowerinvestmentcombinedwithalackofalternativesforfuelswitching(duetoatightcoalmarket,lowwindgeneration,andlowhydropowergeneration)ledtothecurrentpriceenvironment.Manyindustryparticipantscalledforpolicymeasuresthatincentivizeinvestmentingassuppliesandinfrastructuredevelopment,suchaspipelinesandstoragecapacity,duringperiodsofsustainedlowprices.Additionally,somequestionedwhethercoal,givenitsrelativeeaseofuseforfuelswitchingwithgascomparedtorenewableenergysources,couldbemakingacomeback—aprospectlentgreatercredencebyarecentincreaseincoaluse,evenasworldleadersgatheratthe26thUnitedNationsClimateChangeConferencetodiscusslower-carboncommitments.1Fromthedemandside,energyconsumptioncontinuestogrowasthepost-pandemiceconomicrecoveryproceedsfasterthanexpected.Participantshighlightedtheneedfordemand-sidepoliciestobegivengreaterconsideration,especiallybecausenaturalgasuseinmanycountriesisprojectedtoincrease,atleastintheshortterm.Forexample,oneobservernotedthatiftheEUhadimplementedabuildingretrofitprogramin2009aftertheUkrainegascrisis,itwouldhavereducedEUannualgasdemandbyanestimated20billioncubicmetersperyearandhelpedtoalleviatethecurrentgascrisis.Giventhegrowinggapbetweentheambitionofwheretheworldwantstobewithregardtoclimatechangeactionandtherealityofwhatishappening,forumparticipantsagreedthatgreaterinvestmentintheenergyindustryisneeded.Theenvironmental,geopolitical,andeconomicimplicationsofthisinvestmentgaparemanifestinginunforeseenways—thecurrentglobalgascrisisbeingoneexample.However,participantsexpresseddifferentviewsonwherenewinvestmentismostneeded.ThesedifferencesalignwithactionsbytheEUindoublingdownonrenewableenergyandanacceleratedtransitionawayfromfossilfuelsversusmanyemergingeconomiesfocusinginvestmentonnaturalgas.EnergyPovertyNoLongerLimitedtoDevelopingCountriesAthemethroughoutthediscussionwashowenergypovertyhasbecomeatrulyglobalproblem.SomeparticipantsobservedthatthemostvulnerablepopulationsinEuropewillMARKET,POLICY,ANDPOLITICALIMPLICATIONSOFTHEGLOBALNATURALGASCRISISENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUNOVEMBER20213needemergencyfinancialsupporttohelppayforelectricityandheatingtogetthroughthiswinter.ThissituationhasalreadypromptedEuropeangovernmentstotakeactionsindifferentforms,includingenergygrants,rebatesontariffs,ortariffsbeingfrozenforatleastthecomingwinter.2Incountriesseekingtoaccelerateamoveawayfromfossilfueluse,someparticipantscalledforde-riskinginstrumentstoadjustforpricevolatilitiesandpreventexcessivelyhighpricesthatcouldleadtodemanddestructionandfurtherenergypoverty.Additionally,manydiscussantshighlightedthetensionbetweenclimatechangeandenergyaccesspolicies,withoneobserverarguingthatsecuringaffordableandreliableenergyisprevailingoverclimateambition.Inanycase,thistensionmaycastdoubtoverthepaceanddecarbonizationpathwaysoftheenergytransition.OutlookforWinter:RegionalPerspectivesNaturalgasisusedforheatinginsomeregions,andthereforegasdemandishigherinthoseplacesduringthewinter.Importingregions,especiallyEurope,couldbeparticularlyexposedtohighgaspricesanddisruptionsifthiswinterisextremelycold.EuropeAsEUpoliticianspreparetopassmajorclimatepoliciessuchastheFitfor55legislativepackage,whichsetsouttheEU’stransitionplantoreduceemissionsbyatleast55percentby2030,thepoliticalramificationsofhighgasprices,whicharepassedontoconsumersashighelectricityprices,isanimmediateconcern.Asoneexpertnoted,theEuropeanCommissionbelievesitisessentialforconsumerstobuyintotheenergytransition,makingthehighgasandpowerprices,whichhavetriggeredfearsofarepeatofthe2018yellowjacketprotests,3veryworrying.Withcoalandoilenergymarketsalreadysqueezed,littlecanbedonecollectivelyintermsoffuelswitching.Assuch,someindustrialenergyusersintheUnitedKingdomandpartsofcontinentalEuropehavereducedoutputinsectorssuchasfertilizerproduction,whichmayportendfurtherdemandcurtailmentthiswinter.Althoughimprovedwindandhydropowergenerationcouldhelpalleviatethissituation,suchpowerdependsonweatherconditionsand,asonecommentatorremarked,issimplywishfulthinking.Thesamecommenterobservedthatalthoughcurrentgasstoragelevelsareabout77percentofcapacity,4lowerthanthe5-yearaverageof90percent,5gasinventoriesshouldbesufficientforanormalwinter—aharsherwinter,however,couldchangethatassessment.ThequestionofwhetherRussiacanstepintofillthegasshortageinEuropehasdominatedthepressandmarketmovements.6ButevenifRussianstakeholderswerewillingtohelp,itwouldbeattheexpenseoftheirownpreparationsforthewinterahead.RussiaGivenlowRussiangasstoragevolumescomingoutofthespringthisyear,thesituationinRussiamirrorsthatofEurope.Asoneparticipanthighlighted,thesituationthatGazprom,Russia’smajoritystate-ownedgascompany,nowfindsitselfinisacasestudyofhowlowpriceshavediscouragedinvestmentinnewgasprojects.Foryears,thecompanyhaddeferredMARKET,POLICY,ANDPOLITICALIMPLICATIONSOFTHEGLOBALNATURALGASCRISIS4ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUNOVEMBER2021greenfieldinvestments,andlowerdemandduringthe2020pandemicexacerbatedtheissue,resultinginfurthercutstoupstreaminvestments.Gazprom,whichwasalreadyrunningonrazor-thinmargins,alsodecreasedstoragelevelsoverthepastyeartoreducemaintenancecosts.Furthermore,astheparticipantdescribed,thedeferralofmaintenanceworksin2020to2021duetoCovid-19resultedinsuppressedproductioncapacityinRussia(anoutcomethatwascompoundedbyafireattheYamalgasprocessingplantinAugust).7Gazpromalsohasobligationstoitslong-termcontractedcustomers,manyofwhomareexercisingclausesforadditionalvolumes.Theparticipantdescribedhow,inconsequence,Gazpromhasnophysicalvolumeleftforthespotmarket;itisdedicating25percentofitsproductiontofillingundergroundstoragefacilitiesaspartofitslegalobligationtoprotectdomesticsupplies.TheparticipantsharedtheviewthatRussiaisholdingbackgassuppliesnotasapoliticalmaneuverbutinadesperateefforttoprepareforwinter,whichtendstobecolderandlongerinRussiathaninEurope.AlthoughasupplyincreasetoEuropecouldeasepoliticaltensionsandallaymarketconcerns,theparticipantpointedoutthatsuchamoveishinderedbyalackofgoodwillbetweenRussiaandtheEU;moreover,wereRussiatomeaningfullyincreaseexports,thespeakernoted,itwouldjeopardizeitsownpreparationsfortheupcomingwinter.OneparticipantaskedifRussiacouldpossiblyswitchitsgas-poweredgenerationtofueloilandunlockgreaterflowsofgastoEurope.AregionalexpertsaidsuchaswitchwouldhavetobeofsignificantcapacitytoresolveEurope’sgascrisisand,assuch,wouldcomeatagreatfinancialandenvironmentalcosttoRussiaandthuswouldrequiresignificantpoliticalcompromiseontheEU’ssidetomakeitworthwhile.UnitedStatesOneexpertpaintedamoreoptimisticpictureintheUS.Althoughasofthedateoftheforumstoragewas15percentlesscomparedtolastyearanddemandhadreboundedstrongly,theUSwasstillproducingmoregasthanitconsumeddomestically.Thesamecommentatoropinedthatthecountryisnowherenearthedirecircumstancesotherpartsoftheworldfaceandwillmanagethiswintersuccessfully,withthepotentialexceptionofsomeregions.Theparticipantobservedthatifthewinterismarkedlycold,theNortheastcouldfacegassupplyshortages,especiallyareassuchasNewYorkstate,whichrecentlyshutdowntheIndianPointnuclearpowerplantandconsequentlyhasbecomemoredependentongas,8andNewEngland,wherepricescanreachlevelssimilartothoseinEurope(i.e.,attheDutchTitleTransferFacilityhub)inordertoattractcargoesofLNG.9EastAsia(China,Japan,Korea,andTaiwan)Accordingtooneregionalexpert,theoutlookforEastAsiaisrelativelystable,withnomajordisruptionsexpected,subjecttoweatherconditions.Givensignificantlyhigherspotpricesfornaturalgas,theregion’spreferenceforlong-termcontractshasprovedbeneficialthisyear.ApotentialvulnerabilityfortheregionisitsrelativelysmallstoragecapacitycomparedtotheEU’sortheUS’s,whichleavestheregionparticularlydependentonLNGimports.Japanesebuyers,however,havebeensuccessfulinstockpilingLNGsuppliesaheadofthiswinter.MARKET,POLICY,ANDPOLITICALIMPLICATIONSOFTHEGLOBALNATURALGASCRISISENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUNOVEMBER20215Thesameexpertarguedthatcurrentspotpricesdonotreflectunderlyingsupplyanddemandbalance,andthereforeafterthiswinterpricesmaydecreasegiventhatsuppliesmaybeadequate.Thepersonsuggested,though,thatpriceswilleventuallystabilizeatthehigherendrelativetopreviousyearsasLNGusersseektoreplenishdepletedstoragesupplies.Thisviewwassharedbyotherforumparticipants,whosawstoragelevelsattheendofthiswinterasthekeyindicatorforthe2022naturalgasmarket.Thisregionaldiscussionalsohighlightedtheeffectivenessofenergyefficiencypoliciesinhelpingtoreduceenergyconsumption.In2011,shortlyafterthenuclearshutdownstriggeredbytheFukushimaincident,Japanimplementedaseriesofnationalandlocalcampaignsaimedatraisingpublicawarenessofenergysavingsmeasuresinhomesandbusinesses.10ForumattendeesconsideredthesecampaignssuccessfulandsuggestedtheycouldbereplicatedintheEUandUS.TheRoleofNaturalGasintheEnergyTransitionThecurrentgascrisis,combinedwithaglobalpushtotransitiontocleanerenergysourcesanddecreasecarbonemissions,hascausedawidearrayofpoliticalresponsesregardingnaturalgas’sroleintheenergytransition.Someforumparticipantsdescribednaturalgasasa“bridgefuel”inthatitemitssignificantlylesscarbondioxide(CO2)thanotherfossilfuels(50–60percentlessthancoal)whenburnedforenergy.11However,otherparticipantsstressedthatitisstillafossilfuelandthereforehasitsdrawbacks,includingsignificantmethaneleaks.Industryofficialsarguedthatregardlessoftheprosandconsofnaturalgas,thehighlevelofinvestmentinnaturalgasextractionandinfrastructure,aswellastheprevalenceofnaturalgasasaglobalsourceofenergy(accountingfor23percentofglobalprimaryenergydemand),12willpreventanyrapidtransitionawayfromitasafuelsource.Attendeesagreedthattherolegaswillplayintheenergytransitionishighlydependentonhowindustryandpublicpolicyaddressmethaneleaks,aswellastheavailabilityofothercleanerenergysources.Variousparticipantsmadeitclearthattheglobalmindsetaroundtheenergytransitionisgreatlyinfluencedbytherisksandtimelineofclimatechangecomparedtotherisksassociatedwithcurrentlevelsofenergyaccessandaffordability.Oneattendeeemphasizedthatthedetrimentaleffectsofclimatechangearestillwidelyconsideredconcernsforthedistantfuturewhereasenergyavailabilityandaffordabilityaremoreurgent.AnotherattendeesupportedthisviewpointbyhighlightingtheactionsofpolicymakersinChina,whereChineseofficialsplacegreatvalueonfuelavailabilityandhaveincreasedproductionandimportsofcoalandgasthiswintertosecuresufficientenergysuppliesforheating.13Variousparticipantsappearedtosharetheviewpointthatinthebattlebetweenconcernsovertheenvironmentalimpactofcontinuedfossilfueluseandtheneedforgastokeepconstituentscomfortableoverthewinter,theenvironmentalconcernswillinevitablyloseout.AlthoughChinaremainspubliclycommittedtoachievingpeakemissionsby2030andcarbonneutralityby2060,thereisatacitunderstandingthatensuringenergyaccessintheneartermwillmainlyrelyonhydrocarbons.MARKET,POLICY,ANDPOLITICALIMPLICATIONSOFTHEGLOBALNATURALGASCRISIS6ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUNOVEMBER2021BeyondChina,participantsdiscussedvaryingpoliticalapproachestotheenergytransition.ExpertsinEuropeanenergypolicyexplainedthattheEUhastakentheleadontheenergytransitionandhasgreatlyprioritizedinvestinginrenewablesourcesandelectrificationtoincreasetheavailabilityofcleanenergy.Theseparticipantsseecurrentrisingnaturalgaspricesasastepintherightdirectiontoreducingfossilfueluse;increasedpriceswilltheoreticallydeterconsumersfromusinggastoheattheirhomesandincentivizehouseholdstoinvestinelectricheatpumps,furtherreducingtheEU’sCO2emissionsanddependenceonfossilfuels.Participantsstressedtheimportanceofapoliticalnarrativethatnotonlysellsaggressiveclimateactionbutalsoaccommodatesfuturepricevolatilityandsupportsconsumersthroughtheenergytransition.Thespecificsofsuchanarrativedependonvariouscountry-specificfactorssuchastheavailabilityofandinvestmentsinrenewableenergysourcesand/oracountry’splansforfuturerelianceonnuclearpower.EuropeanenergyexpertsexplainedthattheEUhasbeenshiftingawayfromfossilfuelsandhashadtimetoplanforadecreaseinnaturalgasconsumption.However,otherparticipantspointedoutthatanenthusiasticabandonmentoffossilfuelsisnothappeningconcurrentlyglobally,orevenacrossregionsinEurope.ThisdivergenceishighlightedbythecontrastbetweenEastandWestEurope:manycountriesinEasternEuropeareatdifferentstagesoftheenergytransitioncomparedtoWesternEurope—stillhighlydependentoncoalandneedingnaturalgasasabridgefuel.Theforumdemonstratedthatopinionsontheroleofnaturalgasintheenergytransitiondifferdependingonone’sindustryandperspective.Participantsfromthenaturalgasindustryexpressedoptimismconcerningthefutureofnaturalgasconsumption.Theseparticipantsbelievedthatifmethaneleakscanbereinedin,naturalgascanserveasabridgefuelandprovidearelativelycleanandsecuresupplyofenergyinlieuofdirtierfuelswhilerenewablesources,suchaswindandsolar,andbatterieswithhigherstoragecapacityaredevelopedtoscale.Additionally,speakersfromtheindustrystressedtheimportanceofnotrushingtheenergytransition,warningthatprematurelyabandoningallfossilfuelswillputpeoplearoundtheglobeatfurtherriskofenergypoverty,especiallyasenergydemandcontinuestorise.Incontrast,participantsfromenvironmentalgroupsarguedthatinvestmentinrenewableenergysourcesshouldincreasewhileinvestmentinfossilfuelsshouldtaperofftoachievenet-zeroemissionstargets.ThisperspectivealignsmorecloselywiththeEU’spoliticalpointofview.However,therearecurrentlimitationstotheavailabilityofrenewableenergygloballyaswellasitsrateofdeployment.Environmentalistparticipantsconcededthatwhiletheworldshouldbemovingtowardsazero-carbonfuture,itmustdosoinawaythatavoidswide-scaleenergypoverty.Regardlessofbackgroundorperspective,participantsagreedthatnaturalgaswillnotbeabandonedentirelyasafuelsourceanytimesoon.Withthisinmind,attendeesemphasizedthatcurrentprocessesandregulationsneedtobeadjustedtomitigatetothefullestpossibleextenttheenvironmentalharmfromusingnaturalgas.Participantsagreedthateliminatingmethaneleaksandroutineflaringisimperative.Beyondthat,theyhighlightedtheutilityofexistingnaturalgassystemsandinfrastructureinsupportingthedevelopmentoflow-carbonfuelssuchashydrogenandbiomethane.Thispathwaycouldhelpensureenergyavailabilitygloballywhileminimizinggreenhousegasemissionsandtheirimpactontheplanet.MARKET,POLICY,ANDPOLITICALIMPLICATIONSOFTHEGLOBALNATURALGASCRISISENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUNOVEMBER20217Notes1.ToddGillespie,“AsClimateTalksStart,U.K.IsBurningtheMostCoalinEightMonths,”BloombergNews,November2,2021,https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/as-climate-talks-start-u-k-is-burning-the-most-coal-in-eight-months-1.1675884;andDerekBrower,“USCoalUseJumpsasPowerGeneratorsSwitchfromNaturalGas,”FinancialTimes,October31,2021,https://www.ft.com/content/5363e473-c283-4a58-8ded-37358aa7e33b.2.AniaNussbaumandFrancoisDeBeaupuy,“FrancetoGiveFamilies580MillionEurostoPayEnergyBills,”Bloomberg,updatedSeptember15,2021,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-15/france-may-try-to-ease-cost-of-energy-bills-with-more-vouchers;andAlonsoSoto,VanessaDezem,andJoaoLimaie,“SpainIsCanaryintheMineforEurope’sEmergingEnergyCrisis,”Bloomberg,October15,2021,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-16/spain-is-canary-in-the-mine-for-europe-s-emerging-energy-crisis?sref=uFaJcogC.3.Alsoreferredtoasthe“yellowvest”or“giletsjaunes”protests,thiswasamassdemonstrationinFrancethatwasinitiallymotivatedbywhatwereseenasexcessivelyhighfuelprices.AlissaJ.Ruben,“France’sYellowVestProtests:TheMovementThatHasPutParisonEdge,”NewYorkTimes,December3,2018,https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/03/world/europe/france-yellow-vest-protests.html.4.GasInfrastructureEurope,“HistoricalData,”AggregatedGasStorageInventory(AGSI+),accessedNovember1,2021,https://agsi.gie.eu/#/historical/eu.5.NinaChestney,NoraBuli,andKateAbnett,“EUSaysEnergySupplyNotatImmediateRiskButSeeksSupplyBoost,”Reuters,October13,2021,https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-energy-supply-not-immediate-risk-seeks-supply-boost-2021-10-13/.6.JakeHorton,“EuropeGasPrices:HowFarIsRussiaResponsible?”BBCNews,October18,2021,https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451.7.NataliaChumakovaandOksanaKobzeva,“UPDATE2—GazpromCancelsAugCondensateExportsafterUrengoyFire,SourcesSay,”Reuters,August11,2021,https://www.reuters.com/article/gazprom-condensate/update-2-gazprom-cancels-aug-condensate-exports-after-urengoy-fire-sources-say-idUSL1N2PI0YI.8.SladeJohnson,“NewYork’sIndianPointNuclearPowerPlantClosesafter59YearsofOperation,”USEnergyInformationAdministration,April30,2021,https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47776.9.ErinM.BlantonandKatherineWest,“Q&ATheRoleofLiquefiedNaturalGasintheUSGasMarket,”CenteronGlobalEnergyPolicyatColumbiaUniversitySchoolofInternationalandPublicAffairs,November1,2021,https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/article/qa-role-liquefied-natural-gas-us-gas-market.10.Implementedin2011,thiscampaignnamed“Setsuden”(literaltranslationinEnglish:“SavingElectricity”)wasprimarilyamediacampaignthatencouragedprivatehouseholdsandcommercialbusinessestoreduceenergyconsumptionduringthepeaksummerMARKET,POLICY,ANDPOLITICALIMPLICATIONSOFTHEGLOBALNATURALGASCRISIS8ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUNOVEMBER2021period.Measuresincludedreducingcooling.SuvendriniKakuchi,“Energy-Saving‘Setsuden’CampaignSweepsJapanafterFukushima,”Guardian,August22,2011,https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/aug/22/energy-saving-setsuden-japan-fukushima.11.UnionofConcernedScientists,“EnvironmentalImpactsofNaturalGas,”June19,2014,https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/environmental-impacts-natural-gas.12.InternationalEnergyAgency,“Gas,”accessedOctober26,2021,https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/gas.13.S&PGlobalPlattsstaff,“CHINADATA:SepPipelineGasImportsHitNewRecordof3.9Millionmt,”October21,2021,https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/lng/102121-china-data-sep-pipeline-gas-imports-hit-new-record-of-39-million-mt;andShivaniSinghandMuyuXu,“ChinaCoalImportsSurge,PricesHitRecordasFloodsAddtoEnergyWoes,”Reuters,October13,2021,https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-coal-prices-hit-record-high-floods-add-supply-woes-2021-10-13/.AcknowledgmentsTheauthorswouldliketothankChristinaNelson,MatthewRobinson,AndreaBrody-Barre,andJeffreyCulangfortheirextensiveeditorialhelp.Thiseventsummaryreflectstheauthors’understandingofkeypointsmadeinthecourseoftheforum.ItdoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofCGEP.TheforumandthissummaryweremadepossiblebysupportfromCGEP.Moreinformationisavailableathttps://energypolicy.columbia.edu/about/partners.AbouttheAuthorsHonXingWongisaresearchassociateatColumbiaUniversity’sCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicy.Previously,hewasacharteredchemicalengineeratBP,whereheworkedforsixyearsinvariousengineeringandsite-operationsrolesacrossdifferentgeographicalregions,namely,Angola,Egypt,andtheNorthSea.HeholdsamasterofpublicadministrationfromColumbiaUniversity’sSchoolofInternationalandPublicAffairsandamasterofengineeringinchemicalandenvironmentalengineeringfromNottinghamUniversity.SamanthaLangisaresearchassistantattheCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicy.SheiscurrentlypursuinghermasterofpublicadministrationinenvironmentalscienceandpolicyatColumbia’sSchoolofInternationalandPublicAffairs.ShesupportstheNaturalGasResearchInitiativeandassistsinresearchregardinghownaturalgascanbeusedintheenergytransition.PriortoattendingColumbia,sheworkedinfinancialservices,whereshespecializedinprofitabilityanalysisoffixed-incomeportfolios,workingwithlargeandcomplexdatasetstoanalyzeandinterpretfundperformance.MARKET,POLICY,ANDPOLITICALIMPLICATIONSOFTHEGLOBALNATURALGASCRISISENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUNOVEMBER20219ErinM.BlantonisaseniorresearchscholarattheCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicyatColumbiaUniversity’sSchoolofInternationalandPublicAffairs,wheresheleadstheNaturalGasResearchInitiative.Herresearchfocusesontheroleofnaturalgasintheenergytransition,energymarketsandinvestment,andglobalenergyaccess.Beforejoiningthecenter,Blantonspent16yearsatMedleyGlobalAdvisors,anindependentmacropolicyresearchfirm,whereshewasamanagingdirectorandlednaturalgasandrenewablecoverage.Herclientsconsistedoftheworld’sleadinghedgefunds,assetmanagers,andinvestmentbanks.Blantonholdsamaster’sdegreefromColumbiaUniversity’sSchoolofInternationalandPublicAffairsandabachelorofartsineconomicsfromCornellUniversity.ABOUTTHECENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYTheCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicyatColumbiaUniversitySIPAadvancessmart,actionableandevidence-basedenergyandclimatesolutionsthroughresearch,educationanddialogue.Basedatoneoftheworld’stopresearchuniversities,whatsetsCGEPapartisourabilitytocommunicateacademicresearch,scholarshipandinsightsinformatsandontimescalesthatareusefultodecisionmakers.Webridgethegapbetweenacademicresearchandpolicy—complementingandstrengtheningtheworld-classresearchalreadyunderwayatColumbiaUniversity,whileprovidingsupport,expertise,andpolicyrecommendationstofosterstronger,evidence-basedpolicy.Recently,ColumbiaUniversityPresidentLeeBollingerannouncedthecreationofanewClimateSchool—thefirstinthenation—totacklethemosturgentenvironmentalandpublichealthchallengesfacinghumanity.Visitusatwww.energypolicy.columbia.edu@ColumbiaUEnergyABOUTTHESCHOOLOFINTERNATIONALANDPUBLICAFFAIRSSIPA’smissionistoempowerpeopletoservetheglobalpublicinterest.Ourgoalistofostereconomicgrowth,sustainabledevelopment,socialprogress,anddemocraticgovernancebyeducatingpublicpolicyprofessionals,producingpolicy-relatedresearch,andconveyingtheresultstotheworld.BasedinNewYorkCity,withastudentbodythatis50percentinternationalandeducationalpartnersincitiesaroundtheworld,SIPAisthemostglobalofpublicpolicyschools.Formoreinformation,pleasevisitwww.sipa.columbia.edu

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