TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022Energytrendssince2000:transitionhasstartedGDPgrowthdecoupledfromtotalenergydemandandCO2emissionsgrowthTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook20222CAGR2000/2019Indexofkeyindicators2000=100CO2emissionsTotalenergydemandNaturalgasdemandRenewablesdemandCoaldemandElectricitydemandGDP3,5%3,2%2,7%2,5%2,6%2,0%1,9%1,1%Powerfastestgrowingenergy,oilslowestoneCoalgrowth,triggeredbyChinatake-offsince2000,slowingsince2015NaturalgasandrenewablesgrowingatthesamespeedEnergyintensitygainsexplainingmostofthedecouplingbetweenGDPandemissionsgrowthAsin2000,fossilfuelsstillmakeup81%oftheenergymixin2019OildemandEnergyint.gains1,5%90100110120130140150160170180190200200020052010201520202021demandreboundduetostrongerthanexpectedeconomicgrowth+6%energydemandin2021,vs.+4%anticipatedinTEO21Energysecurityandsovereigntybackinfocus:oilandgasmatter‘Savegasforasafewinter’–UrsulaVonderLeyenWillcurrentmarketdisruptionsspeeduporslowdowntheenergytransition?TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook20223RenewedambitionsforelectrificationandRENdeploymentsREPowerEU,IRAintheUSHigherpricesmayfavorefficiencygains(viasubstitutionordemandreduction)2011-2014highenergypricesexample:efficiencygainsx2Energyaffordabilityisfundamental:highenergybillsbecomingamajorissueEuropeanelectricitypricestopped@1000€/boeShorttermcoalconsumptionandCO2ontheriseCoaldemand+7%in2021,energy-relatedCO2+2GtCleanH2potentialgainingtraction20MtGreenH2inEUin2030target,strongfiscalincentivesinIRAintheUSNeedtopreserveenergysecurity&affordabilitythroughthetransitionCOP27focusonjusttransitionforemergingcountriesDevelopedcountriestodeliverthepromised100G$/yTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook20224MomentumAforward-lookingscenariobuildingonNZ50commitmentsParisagreementwell-below2°Ctargetachieved,basedonIPCCemissionsscenariosMeetingthistargetrequiresaconcertedefforttorebuildtheenergysystemataglobalscaleRuptureAback-castingapproachTemperaturerisingby2.1-2.3°Cin2100Temperatureincreaselimitedto1.7°C40Net-Zeroby2050countriesincludedinourscenarioAnnouncedtargetsandNDCsofothercountries,inparticularChina(2060),Russia(2060)andIndia(2070)SameframeworkasIEAAPSwithaRupture+sensitivityresultingina1.5°CscenarioTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022Twodemandscenariosto2050AtP66,temperaturerangesascertainedbycomparingenergy-relatedCO2emissionstrajectorieswiththeIPCCAR6scenarios.AtP50(sameasIEANZE)Keyfeaturesofour2022scenariosTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook20225Necessarydisseminationatscaleofdecarbonizationdriverstoallemergingeconomies•Startswithhigherfossilfuelsdemandandhigheremissions–somoreeffortsneeded•Transportrevolutionunderway:massiveroadelectrificationforLightandHeavyDutyVehicles;increasedSustainableLiquidFuels(incl.SAF)ambitionsformarineandaviation•Speedingupend-useelectrificationwithstronggrowthinRENdeployments•Naturalgaskeepingstrongroleaskeytransitionenergyinpowerandindustry,muchlessinmobility•Biofuelsandbiogaspenetratingselectedsegments•H2potentialconfirmedwithrampupafter2030•HighpolymerrecyclingobjectivesMomentum:acceleratingtheramp-upofgreenermoleculesandelectronsGDPgrowth:+3.0%/yrEnergygrowth:+0.4%/yrRupture:howtoreachwell-below2°CGDPgrowth:+3.0%/yrEnergygrowth:+0.2%/yr•Speedingupenergyswitchtoreduceemissionandincreaseenergyefficiency•Furtherdevelopmentofelectricity&renewables•ExtensionofroadtransportrevolutionwithhigherZEVpenetrationworldwide•Higherpenetrationofnewenergycarriers(cleanH2inindustry&transport,e-fuels,biofuelsandbiogas…)Zero-emissionvehicle1000200030006TheenergytransitionmustbejustMeetingtheneedsofgrowingpopulationsindevelopingeconomies•Globalenergydemandgrowthof+0.4%p.a.from2019to2050reflects2oppositetrends:non-OECD+1.0%p.a.andOECD-0.7%p.a.•OECDcountriesneedtosupportthecleantransitionindevelopingcountriesthroughfinancingandtechnologytransfersTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022ChangesinNon-OECDprimaryenergydemand2019-2050(Momentum)PJ/dCAGRs:+0,8%+2,8%-2,6%+1,0%CAGRs:+0,2%+1,6%-2,5%-0,7%ChangesinOECDprimaryenergydemand2019-2050(Momentum)PJ/dMostlytransitionfrominefficienttraditionalenergytomodernenergyincludingelectricityHighelectrificationandenergyefficiencyefforts2019Population2050EnergyefficiencyGDPpercapita2019Population2050EnergyefficiencyGDPpercapita60%71%37%26%SumofOECDandnon-OECDdemandsnotequaltototaldemandasinternationaltransport(bunkers)notreallocatedGlobalenergy-relatedCO2emissionsin2019GtCO22550Howtocurbemissions?AcomprehensivetransformationofourenergyproductionandusageTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook20227GlobalanthropogenicGHGemissionsin2019GtCO2eCO2fromland-usechangeOthergreenhousegases(N2O…)Methanefromagriculture,wasteMethaneemissionsfromcoalProduction&transportoffossilfuelsIncludesenergysectorownuse,transportlosses,andenergytransformationEnergy-relatedCO2:33GtCO2fromindustrialprocessesMethanefromoil&gas~58GtDecarbonizationofpowerandtransportarethekeyprioritiesReducingmethaneemissionsisalsomandatory51015Agriculture&OtherEnergytransformationRes.&Com.IndustryTransportPowerCoalOilGasOtherenergyusePower&HeatAgricultureStrongelectrificationofend-use~20%offinaldemand~30%~40%Deepdecarbonizationofpowersupply2100TWh(8%ofpowergeneration)24000TWh(~50%)34000TWh(~60%)Gasgoinggreener<1%greengasesingassupply~20%~35%Sustainablemobility<1%BEV&FCEVinlightvehiclesfleet~65%~80%~100%kerosenefuelingaircraftsSust.aviationfuels(SAF)@~45%ofdemandSAF@~60%Increasingplastics’circularity7%ofgrossdemandrecycled~40%~60%CCStoabateremainingemissions~35Mt(0.1%CO2emissions)3Gt(~15%)6.5Gt(~50%)Energyefficiencyacceleration1.5%/yrenergyintensityimprovementsince2000+2.4%/yr+2.6%/yrKeymodelingdriversofourscenariosSector-basedassumptionsTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook20228Rupture20502019Momentum2050ExcludingRENgenerationforgreenH2GreengasesincludeBiomethaneandH2butexcludingH2shareforliquide-fuelsproductionBattery-ElectricVehiclesandFuel-cellElectricVehiclesMomentumKeyenergytransitionlevers:•RevolutioninTransport•Massivegrowthincleanpower•IncreasedpenetrationofcleanhydrogenMomentumwrap-upTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook20229123420152020202520302035204020452050ElectrificationofLightDutyVehiclesWidespreadpenetrationinChinaandNZ2050countriesTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202210LightDutyVehiclesfinalconsumption(Momentum)PJ/d•MassiveElectricVehicles(EV)penetrationsupportedbyInternalCombustionEnginesalesbanin2035inEuropeandpartoftheUS,togetherwithambitiousEVtargetsinChina•By2050,~100%offleetconvertedtoelectricityorH2-basedfuelsinNet-Zerocountries,and~55%elsewhere(China~90%)LightDutyVehiclesfleet(Momentum)Billion•LDV:47%of2019transportfinalenergydemandandCO2emissions•Electricityconfirmedastheprimarydecarbonizationdriver•~5PJd/~1Mbdoildisplacedin2021,mainlyfor2-3wheelers•SupplyingtheadditionalpowerrequiredformobilitywillrequiresignificantinfrastructureinvestmentsH2-basedElectricityBiofuels&BiogasNaturalgasOilElectricity+H2-basedMomentumLDV=LightVehicles(Passengercars+LightCommercialVehicles)+2-3wheelersIncludesH2,e-fuels(H2+CO2)501001502019203020505010020192030205050%100%Longhaul(~70%ofHDVtraffic)Urbanvehicles(~30%ofHDVtraffic)MixdiversificationinHeavyDutyVehiclesAfullsetofcleanenergieswillcontributetotruckingdecarbonizationTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202211HeavyDutyVehiclesfinalconsumption(Momentum)PJ/d•Urbanandsomeregional/longhaulapplicationseearapidbattery-basedEVtrucksdevelopment•Fuel-cellspenetrationratemoreprogressive,nonethelesstakinganimportantshareespeciallyforlonghaultripsZeroEmissionsVehiclesshareofHDVtraffic(Momentum)2050,%ofkmtravelled•HDV:28%of2019transportfinalenergydemandandCO2emissions•Amixofcleanenergies(electricity,hydrogenandbioenergies)requiredtodecarbonizetrucking;electricpowertrainsleadingtheway.•EventhoughHDVslowertodecarbonizethanLightVehicles,oilsharedecreasedtoabouthalfoftheenergydemandby2050H2-basedElectricityNaturalgasBiofuels&BiogasOilH2-basedElec.MomentumTrucks+Buses+CoachesIncludesFuelcellsandH2,e-fuels(H2+CO2)MultipledecarbonizationpathsforAviation&MarineBioenergiesandH2-basedfuelstodecarbonizethesehard-to-abatesectorsTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202212Aviationfinalconsumption(Momentum)PJ/d•Marine:10%of2019TransportfinalenergydemandandCO2emissions•LNGandbioenergieswillplayakeyroleaspartoftheenergytransition•CleanH2-basedfuels(e-methanol,e-ammonia,…)deployedafter2035tosubstituteoilMarinefinalconsumption(Momentum)PJ/d•Aviation:12%of2019TransportfinalenergydemandandCO2emissions•Drop-indecarbonationsolutions(SustainableAviationFuels)requiredtodecarbonizeaviationaselectricityandhydrogenwillremainlimited•Aviationtocaptureanincreasingshareofbiofuelssupplyafter2030attheexpenseofroadH2-basedElectricityBiofuels&BiogasLNGOilH2-basedElectricityBiofuelsOilMomentumMomentumSustainableAviationFuels=biofuels+e-fuelsIncludesH2,e-fuels(H2+CO2),methanol,ammonia…2550201920302050255020192030205030000600002019203020502000400060008000200020102020203020402050SignificantgrowthoflowcarbonpowergenerationLedbysolar&windTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202213Powergeneration,excludingpowerforGreenH2(Momentum)TWh•Solar&windcapacitiesmultipliedby~7in30years,representing60%ofallpowercapacitiesin2050•Coalcapacitiesstartingtodecreaseinthelate20’s•Averagepoweremissionfactorreducedby~75%by2050(netofCCS)Powercapacities,excludingforGreenH2(Momentum)GW•Powerdemandandgenerationalmostdoublingby2050(+2%p.a.),withwind&solarrepresenting~90%ofnewgeneration•Hugedecreaseofcoal-firedgeneration,completephase-outinNZcountries•Despitestronggas-to-RENswitch,gasgrowsinabsolutetermstomanagevariabilityofsolar&windanddemandseasonality•RenewedinvestmentinnuclearOtherrenewablesBioenergyHydroNuclearOilSolar&WindCoalNaturalgasWindCoalSolarMomentumIncludestraditionaluseofbiomass,waste,biofuels,biogas…2500500020192030205050100201920302050WorldOil&NaturalGasNaturalgaskeyforenergytransition;oilstartsdecreasingafter2030TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202214Naturalgasdemandbysector,excludinggasforBlueH2(Momentum)Bcm•Slightoildemandincreaseuntilearly2030•Decreasepost-2030slowerthanthenaturaldeclineofproducingoilfields,requiringcontinuedinvestmentOildemandbysector(Momentum)Mb/d•Naturalgasisakeytransitionfuel,growingby+0.2%p.a.to2050,withaplateaufromthe2030’s•NaturalgastodisplacecoalinPowerandIndustry•GasuseintransportremainsmainlyfocusedonMarine-2.3%p.a.TransportRes&ComIndustryPowerGenOthersectorsRes&ComIndustryTransportOthersectorsMomentumOtherenergyuse,non-energyuseandagriculture…1002003002019203020502050Whataboutcleanhydrogen?Mostlyusedforhard-to-abatesectorsTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202215CleanH2balance(Momentum)MtH2•BlueH2andpowergenerationmaindriversofgasdemandgrowth•110MtBlueH2productionwillrequire~1GtCCSby2050•GreenH2animportantdriverofstrongpowerdemandgrowth,togetherwithRes.&Com.,transportandindustry•x3oftoday’ssolar&windcapacitiesdedicatedtoGreenH2by2050NatGasandPowerdemandincludingH2(Momentum)Bcm&TWh•CleanhydrogendemanddrivenbyNet-Zero2050countriesandChina•Scale-uptakestime;significantpotentialafter2030•Transport:H2usedinfuelcellsande-fuels(e-ammonia,e-methanol,e-jet)•EUmostlygreenH2,US&Chinablue&green~1/3BlueH2+8000TWhpowerforH2~2/3GreenH2TransportIndustryPowerRes.&Com.+500BcmgasforH2Othersectors0AddedgasdemandAddedpowerdemandMomentumOtherenergyuse,non-energyuseandagriculture…>30011%250050002019205014%3000060000201920505001000201920302050510200020102020203020402050WorldTotalFinalConsumptionElectricityoutstripsoilintheearly2040sTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202216TotalfinalconsumptionPJ/dEnergy-relatedCO2emissionsbysectorGt•Finalenergymixmoreandmorediversified•End-userelectrificationviacleanpower#1driverofallNZ50policies•Fossilfuelssharedownfrom2/3to~45%Res&ComIndustryTransport•Inmomentum,emissionscurbedfirstandforemostfromtransport,then°1end-useremittingsectortodayNaturalgasCoalBiomassBiogasElectricityBiofuelsH2-basedHeatOtherrenewablesOilMomentumIncludesH2,e-fuels(H2+CO2),methanol,ammonia…100020002019203020501530200020102020203020402050WorldenergydemandandCO2emissionsGreatefforttowardsenergytransitionbutinsufficienttomeetglobaltargetsTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202217TotalprimaryenergydemandPJ/d•Energy-relatedCO2emissionsdropby~35%toreach21Gtin2050(netof~3GtCCS,mainlyinpower,blueH2andindustry)•Temperaturewouldriseby+2.1-2.3°Cby2100(P66)Energy-relatedCO2emissionsGt•Primaryenergydemandupby~15%by2050•Renewables&naturalgasbothgrowing,playingkeycomplementaryrolesBioenergyOilNuclearHydroNaturalgasCoalSolar&WindOtherrenewablesMomentumIncludestraditionaluseofbiomass,waste,biofuels,biogas…ZoomTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202218•AcloserlookatNZEcountries•EU27:progressingitsGreenDeal•Africa:apromisingenergytransitionpath15%12%5102019205043%30%1002003002019205036%24%1000200020192050NetZeroby2050countriesAttheforefrontoftheenergytransitionTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202219NewinTEO2022:Australia,UAE,SingaporeandTaiwanPowergenerationcarbon-neutralby2040(netofCCS)Renewables@80%of2050powergeneration,naturalgastomanagevariabilityRoadTransportcarbon-neutralby2050~100%offleetconvertedtoelectricityorhydrogenby2050ElectrificationwithcleanpowerElectricity@46%of2050finalconsumption(World:33%)LeadingincleanH2andgreengasespenetration40%ofgreengasesin2050totalgasesdemandMaingamechangersinNet-Zero2050countriesPopulationBillionpeopleGDPPPP,real,T$NZ2050countriesRestofworldEnergydemandPJ/dZoom5002019203020502040200020102020203020402050NetZeroby2050countriesForgingthenet-zeroemissionspathwayTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202220•After2GtofCCS,1Gtofemissionsremainingin2050•Net-Zerocountries’effortsfarfromsufficient•Fulldecarbonizationofnon-OECDcountrieswillnothappenwithoutcooperationandsupportfromNZcountries•NZ2050countriesenergydemandtofallby~25%in30years•Fossilfuelssharefallfromalmost80%tolessthan40%in2050•Residualoildemandmainlyintransportandpetrochemicals•NaturalgaskeepingastrongroleinpowerandforblueH2productionBioenergyOilNuclearHydroNaturalgasCoalSolar&WindOtherrenewablesNZ2050countriesNon-NZ2050countries(Momentum)MomentumZoomIncludesmodernuseofbioenergysuchasbiofuels,biogas…NZ2050countriesprimaryenergydemandPJ/dWorldenergy-relatedCO2emissionsGt20020192030205020004000201920302050EnergyintensitygainsEU27Leveragingshort-termemergencymeasurestoengagestructuraltransformationTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202221EU27primaryenergydemandPJ/dEU27powergeneration(incl.GreenH2)TWh•Powergenerationlevel&RENcapacitiesconsistentwith2030Fitfor55•Non-carbonsourcesreach95%ofEU27powergenerationby2050,drivenbya7-foldincreaseinSolar&Windgeneration•VeryhighshareofwindgenerationcreatesfavorableconditionsforgreenH2production,30Mtby2050consuming25%ofpowergeneration•EUleadingtheNZ50countriesinreducingfossilfuels,usingbioenergyanddeployingREN•Currentenergycrisisauniqueopportunitytopursueenergyefficiencyefforts:reducesdemandby~15%by2030•CostofgreentransitionandincreasedenergysecuritybeingendorsedbyEUgovernmentsOtherRENCoalNaturalgasOff.windOns.windSolarBioenergyHydroNuclearBioenergyOilNuclearHydroNaturalgasCoalSolar&WindOtherrenewablesZoomIncludesmodernuseofbioenergysuchasbiofuels,biogas…OilGas0.1%11%5%SolarHydroWindPotentialcapacityInstalledcapacityas201910TW350GW110GWTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202222TodayAsof2019PopulationEnergydemandEnergy-relatedCO2emissionsRenewablesEnergypotentialOil&gasreservesAfricaAcontinentwithhugeuntappedresources6%10002000PJ/d4%2040GtCO2WorldAfricaEnergydemandPopulation…withelectricityEnergy-relatedCO2emissionsTomorrow(Momentum2050)x2x2.5x1.5x1.5Zoom27years65yearsSource:AfricanDevelopmentBank2P+2Creserves/productionin201917%510BillionpeopleTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202223-Energydemandgrowthof1.4%p.a.to2050-Urbanizationfacilitatespartialtransitionawayfrominefficientandhighly-emittingtraditionalbiomasstocleanermodernenergies-Energymixleveragingdomesticoil&gasresources,withmodestimpactonCO2emissions-Moderatedevelopmentofsolar,windandhydroRupture-Energydemandgrowthof0.5%p.a.to2050-Eliminationoftraditionalbiomassthankstoquasi-universalelectrification-Accelerateddevelopmentofintermittentrenewablesandhydro,leadingtoanalmosttotalphaseoutofcoal-Oil&gasresourcescontinuetoplayimportantrolestosupporteconomicandsocialdevelopmentMomentumAfricaMoreenergytoimprovethelivingstandardsofagrowingpopulationOtherrenewablesSolar&WindTraditionalbiomassHydroNuclearNaturalgasOilCoalModernbioenergyAfricaprimaryenergydemandPJ/dZoom50100150201920502050MomentumRupture20004000201920502050Momentum8612579403220004000201920502050MomentumRuptureTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202224AfricaMassiveelectrificationwithrenewables,drivenbyurbanization•Between2019and2050,powergenerationmultipliedby3inMomentumandby5inRupture.Solar,hydro,andwindaccountingformorethan80%ofgrowth(100%inRupture)•SignificantfinancialtransfersfromOECDcountriesrequiredtofundcleaninfrastructureprojects•Strongimprovementsinpowersectorgovernancealsomandatory•Powerdemandgrowthof3.6%p.a.(Momentum)&5.1%p.a.(Rupture)•StrongurbanizationleadingtosignificantRes&Comexpansion,accountingforhalfofpowergrowthto2050inbothscenariosZoomAfricapowergenerationTWhAfricapowerdemandbysectorTWhOtherrenewablesBioenergyWindHydroNuclearNaturalgasOilCoalSolarOthersectorsIndustryRes.&Com.TransportAgricultureIncludestraditionaluseofbiomass,waste,biofuels,biogas…Otherenergyuseandnon-energyuseRuptureTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202225Keyadditionallevers:•Acceleratedelectrificationofdemand•AccelerateddeploymentofRENRupturewrap-up–CO2emissions5001000201920502050MomentumRupture5102000201020202030204020502020203020402050WorldTotalFinalConsumptionIncreasedelectrificationinnon-OECDessentialtoremainwell-below2°CTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202226TotalfinalconsumptionPJ/d•Transportemissionsdividedby3inRupture2050(by2inMomentum)withacceleratedelectrification•Industryemissionsreducedto~80%ofcurrentlevelinRupture2050(~10%inMomentum)CO2emissionsbysectorGt•Electricity,H2-basedfuels,bioenergiesaccountingfortwothirdsoffinalenergydemandinRupture2050•Almostcompletephase-outofcoal,strongreductioninoil•ContinuedrolefornaturalgasandgreengasesOilNaturalgasCoalBiofuelsOtherrenewablesH2-basedElectricityBiomassBiogasHeatTransportRes&ComIndustryRuptureMomentumRuptureIncludesH2,e-fuels(H2+CO2),methanol,ammonia…50%100%HDVtrafficLVfleet0%50%100%MarineAviationWorlddemandinTransportAcceleratedsubstitutionawayfromoilonaglobalscaleTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202227TransporttotalfinalconsumptionPJ/d•Non-fossilsharebecomingdominantinalltransportmodes•50%CO2emissionsreductionin2050formarine(vs2005)andforaviation(vs2008)Electricityandfuelcellssharein2050LVfleet(BillionsVehicles)andHDVtraffic(km)%•InRupture,oilrepresentslessthan1/3oftransportfinalenergydemandasalternativesarewidelydeployedinallsegments•Electricity,togetherwithadvancedfuels(bio-basedandH2-based)willdrivedecarbonization.OilNaturalgasBiofuelsH2-basedElectricityBiogasNon-fossilfuelsshareofenergydemandin2050%RuptureMomentumRuptureMomentumRuptureIncludesH2,e-fuels(H2+CO2),methanol,ammonia…200400201920502050MomentumRupture300600201920502050MomentumRupture200400201920502050MomentumRuptureWorlddemandinIndustryandRes.&Com.DeepelectrificationandstrongefficiencygainsTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022IndustrytotalfinalconsumptionPJ/dRes.&Com.TotalfinalconsumptionPJ/d•Industrydeepdecarbonizationenabledbymultiplein-depthchanges:-Coal-to-gassubstitutionwhereverpossible,thengas-to-electricity-AdoptionofH2forselectprocesses(ex:steelDRI,fertilizers)-CCSforindustryin2050triplingfrom0,5GtinMomentumto~1.5GtinRuptureH2-basedElectricityBiomassOilBiogasNaturalgasCoalHeatOtherrenewables28NaturalgasBiomassBiogasElectricityH2-basedHeatOtherrenewablesOil•FlatRuptureRes&Comdemandby2050thankstomajorenergyefficiencygains(buildings,lighting,appliances,…)•Deeppenetrationofelectricityfacilitatedbyurbanizationandmassivepowernetworks”development•Buildingsrenovationneedstobedramaticallyacceleratedfromcurrentrates,requiringtargetedsupportmechanismsRuptureIncludesH2,e-fuels(H2+CO2),methanol,ammonia…3000060000201920502050Momentum3000060000201920502050MomentumRuptureWorldPowerdemandandgenerationAworldwell-below2°CrequiresanewpowersystemTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202229Powergeneration,excludingPowerforGreenH2TWh•Powerdemandacceleratingat2.5%p.a.to2050(vs.2%p.a.inMomentum),withRes.&Com.andIndustrydemanddoublingby2050inRupture•Transportelectricitydemandin2050representingalmostonethirdoftotalpowerdemandtodayPowerdemand,excludingPowerforGreenH2TWh•Solar&WindgenerationinRupture2050~30%largerthantotalpowergenerationtoday•CoalalmostdisappearsinRupture,naturalgasstillrequiredtomanagevariabilityofrenewableenergies•Massiverenewablepenetrationrequiresdeploymentofenergystoragesystems(batteries,electrolysers),flexiblepowerplants,andgridexpansionOtherrenewablesBioenergyHydroNuclearSolar&WindCoalNaturalgasTransportRes.&Com.IndustryOthersectorsRuptureIncludestraditionaluseofbiomass,waste,biofuels,biogas…Otherenergyuseandagriculture1002003004005002019205020502050MomentumRupture19%250050002019205018%300006000020192050TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202230CleanH2balanceMtH2•H2becomesasignificantgrowthdriverfornaturalgasdemandstartinginthe2030’s•PowerforGreenH2pushesuppowerdemandCAGRfrom2.5%/yto3.2%/yuntil2050NatGasandPowerdemandbysectorincludingH2(Rupture)Bcm&TWh~1/3BlueH2+12500TWhelecforH2~2/3GreenH2TransportIndustryPowerRes.&Com.+770BcmgasforH2Othersectors0~totalAsiandemandtoday~halfworldpowerdemandtoday•H2productiontakingoffafter2030drivesupelectricity&gasdemandwithCCS&electrolysisdevelopment•Transport&IndustryarethemainusersofcleanH2•CostsmustcomedownandinfrastructuremustbebuiltupinordertosupportH2adoptionandindustrialscaleupCleanHydrogenAdding~20%tonaturalgasandpowerdemandin2050RuptureOtherenergyuse,non-energyuseandagriculture>300~47030006000201920302050MOMMomentum30006000201920302050MOMMomentumWorldGasesdemandTowardslow-carbongasespredominanceTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202231GasesdemandbysectorBcmGasesdemandbytypeBcm•GreengasesandCCS-abatednaturalgasmaking60%ofworlddemandin2050inRupture(1/3inMomentum)•Natgasplaysitsroleasakeytransitionenergyinallsectors(exceptResCom)andtoproduceblueH2•Allgasescombinedgrowing~1%/yto2050TransportRes&ComIndustryPowerGenGasforblueH2OthersectorsNaturalGasBiomethaneCleanHydrogenCCS-abatedNaturalGasRuptureForhydrogen:volumetricequivalenceofnaturalgasinenergyterms;H2supplyforliquide-fuelsproductionisexcludedOtherenergyuse,non-energyuseandagricultureCCS-abatednaturalgasdemandexcl.theportionusedtoproducehydrogenthroughSMR+CCS50100201920502050MomentumRupture1020201920502050MomentumRuptureWorldLiquidsdemandDemandplateausoverthedecadeTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202232Liquids(oil+biofuels+e-fuels)demandbysectorMb/dBiofuels+e-fuelsdemandintransportMb/d•Oildemandwillplateauuntil2030,beforereaching62Mb/dinMomentumand37Mb/dinRupturein2050•SustainableLiquidFuelsrepresentmorethan40%ofTransportliquidsdemandinRupture(45%biofuelsand55%e-fuels)AviationRoadMarineIndustry,Res&com…Transport•DecarbonizationofTransportwillrelyonmassivedevelopmentofSustainableLiquidFuels(biofuelssupplementedafter2030bye-fuels)•E-fuelsbeingakeyalternativeformarineandaviationsectorswillrequiresignificantdeploymentduringthisdecadetomeetlong-termdemandBiofuelsinTransportE-fuelsinTransportRupture10002000201920502050MomentumRupture100020002000201020202030204020502020203020402050WorldPrimaryEnergyDemandGreeningtheenergysystemwillenablesustainablegrowthforallTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202233TotalprimaryenergydemandPJ/d•Primaryenergydemandupinbothscenariosensuringaccesstoenergyinnon-NZ2050countrieswithincreasinglivingstandardsTotalprimaryenergydemandPJ/d•Rupturedisplayingamodestenergydemandgrowthto2050:0.2%/y•Coalusedividedby5in30years,oilusebyalmost3,whilenaturalgasuse,largelyabatedbyCCS,remainingstable(keyinpower,industryandforblueH2)•Solar&Winddemandmultipliedby20,growingtomorethan25%oftheprimarymixby2050NaturalgasCoalOilBioenergyNuclearHydroSolar&WindOtherrenewablesNZ2050countriesRestoftheworldRuptureMomentumWorldRuptureIncludestraditionaluseofbiomass,waste,biofuels,biogas…1530201920502050MomentumRuptureWorldenergy-relatedCO2emissionsStrongabatementstoexpectfromnon-OECD;CCS&NBSneededforNet-ZeroTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202234Energy-relatedCO2emissionsGt•NZ2050countries’pledgesdecreasing2050emissionsby3Gt,requiringstrongabatementsfromnon-OECDcountries•Asiarepresents70%ofcumulativeabatementsneededtoreachwell-below2°CRupturescenario•TechnicalandfinancialsupportfromOECDcountriesnecessarytoreachNet-ZerogloballyEnergy-relatedCO2emissionsabatementsGt•AllsectorshugelydecreasingCO2emissionsinRupture2050(Power-90%,Industry-80%,Res&ComandTransport-70%vs.2019)•6,5GtofCCSmainlyinpowergeneration(50%)andindustry(25%)•Scalingupyet-to-be-industrializedtechnologiessuchasDAC,aswellasnature-basedsolutions,requiredtolowerresidualemissions(7Gtin2050)IndiaChinaOtherAsiaRoWNZcountriescommitmentsCCS~6,5GtEndUSERSSUPPLIERSDAC,NBS…CCS~3GtRuptureMomentumRuptureNature-BasedSolutionsDirectAirCaptureTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202235InvestmentsinOil&GasandLow-carbonPowerG$22peryear•InvestmentinnewOil&Gasdevelopmentsarerequireduntilatleastthemid2030s,complementingmaintenancespendingtosatisfycustomerdemand•Withenergy-storagesystemsrequirementandelectrolyserdeployment,low-carbonpowerinvestmentisestimatedtodoubleby2030andtotripleby2050•Electricitynetworksinvestmenttobecomeaslargeasinlow-carbonpowerOil&GasLow-carbonpower(Solar,Wind,ESSandElectrolysers)ElectricitynetworksAdecisivedecadefortheenergysystemInvestmenttodoubleby2030;supportivepublicpoliciesrequiredTwodistinctrealities:•Land-richcountries(e.g.US,China):challengemaybeverylong-distancestothedemandcenters•Land-constrainedcountries(e.g.Europe):strongpublicsupportorevenmandatesrequiredGloballandrequiredin2050(solar+onshorewind)km²~500000–900000km²RuptureOnshorewind(~5500GW):300000–600000km²SolarPV(~15000GW):200000–300000km²Notanissueataglobalscale2050;%oftotallandsurfaceEnergy-StorageSystems10002000300020152020203020402050~40%<1%Low-densityvegetationLandforREN153020152020202520302035204020452050Fromwell-below2°Cto1.5°CRupture+sensitivityTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202236Energy-relatedCO2emissionsGtRupture+:howtoreach1.5°CAcombinationofleversappliedontheRupturescenariofrom2035onwards:•Industry:fossilenergyconsumptionin2050halved,replacedbycarbon-freeelectricityandbioenergyforpetrochemicals•Transport:10%moreLDVsswitchtocarbon-freeelectricityin2040;20%morein2050;mainlyinnon-OECDAsia,CIS,MiddleEastandAfrica•ResCom:fossilenergyconsumptionhalvedin2050,replacedbycarbon-freeelectricity•Power:furtherincreaseincarbon-freeelectricitygeneration;coalcompletelyeliminatedfrompowergenerationin2050•CCS:7,6GtCO2in2050,consistentwithIEANZERuptureMomentumRupture+Meeting1.5°Crequiresanotherstep-changesinenergysupply&demand,drivenbyregulation,technologyandbehaviorRupture+AtP50501002015202020252030203520402045205010002000205020502050RuptureRupture+IEANZEFromwell-below2°Cto1.5°CImpactofRupture+sensitivityTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202237TotalprimaryenergydemandPJ/dOildemandMb/d•Energydemandishigherin2050thanin2019inRupture+,asinRupture•Oildemanddecreasessignificantlyto23Mb/din2050,closetoIEANZE(24Mb/d),butwithaverydifferenttrajectory•Electricityandlow-carbonH2increaseshareintransport,pushinguppowergenerationforgreenH2NaturalgasCoalOilBioenergyNuclearHydroSolar&WindOtherrenewablesRuptureRupture+IEANZERupture+Includestraditionaluseofbiomass,waste,biofuels,biogas…Fromwell-below2°Cto1.5°CLimitedovershootrequirestechnologicalinnovationTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202238Rupture+:~500-550GtCO2~200GtCO2tobecapturedby2100ContinuedcleantechR&DrequiredtoreachNet-ZerotargetsRupture+Energy-relatedCO2emissionsGtInRupture+:•Energy-relatedCO2emissionsreachnetzeroaround2050•Overshoottobecapturedfrom2050to2100roughly200GtCO2(+/-confidenceinterval)•OvershootconsistentwithC1IPCCscenariosC1=limitwarmingto1,5°C(>50%)withnoorlimitedovershootKeyfindingsofTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202239❑Theshort-termtrajectoryofglobalenergydemandisnotgoingintherightdirection.Moreeffortsareneededtodecarbonizewhileensuringenergysecurityandaffordability❑Thecurrentcrisisisanopportunitytoincreaseandanchorenergyefficiencymeasures,whicharecriticaltoachievetheParisagreementobjectives❑IntheOECD,theelectrificationofend-userdemandisastructuralevolutionthathelpsreduceemissionsandincreaseenergyefficiency.Significantinvestmentincleanpowerandelectricalgridsisessentialforthesuccessofthiselectrification❑Innon-OECDcountries,inparticularinAfrica,switchingawayfromtraditionalbiomasstomodernenergywillimproveenergyefficiencywhileprovidingaffordableenergyaccess,betterlivingstandardsandeconomicdevelopmenttogrowingpopulations❑Naturalgasplaysakeyroleintheenergytransition:itensuresfirmpowertocomplementrenewablesandreplacescoalinallsectorsoffinaldemand.Gaswillbecomegreenerovertimeanditsgrowthwillbeaccompaniedbycarboncaptureandmethaneemissionscontrolsolutions❑H2andSustainableLiquidFuelsarepromisingdecarbonizationdriversbutwillnotscaleupbefore2030;inthemeantime,renewabledieselandbiogaswilldevelop❑Thecurrentdecadeisdecisive:investmentinlowcarbonpowermustdoubleto2030toreach1.5T$/year.Meanwhile,investmentinnewoilandgasdevelopmentsisrequireduntilatleastthemid2030stosatisfycustomerdemand,eveninawell-below2°Cscenario❑TheenergytransitionalsorequiresmassiveinvestmentincleantechR&DAppendixTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202240WorldprimaryenergydemandandpowergenerationTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202241Includestraditionaluseofbiomass,waste,biofuels,biogas…Worldprimaryenergydemand(PJ/d)2019203020402050CAGR19/50203020402050CAGR19/50Coal444402353302-1,2%34219398-4,8%Oil518516416319-1,6%492344199-3,0%Naturalgas3854224494580,6%4234263990,1%Nuclear831021181552,0%1051331892,7%Hydro425054581,0%5563701,7%Solar11491031659,2%6716226510,9%Wind14541081688,3%671562359,5%Bioenergy1561862182321,3%1862252521,6%Otherrenewables132537484,4%3659766,0%Total16651806185719040,4%1772176017840,2%MOMENTUMRUPTUREWorldpowergeneration('000TWh)2019203020402050CAGR19/50203020402050CAGR19/50Coal10975-1,9%831-6,8%Oil1000-3,5%000-5,5%Naturalgas67780,5%776-0,3%Nuclear33452,0%4462,7%Hydro45561,0%6671,7%Solar1491510,4%6142312,0%Wind1511178,3%716249,5%Bioenergy11122,9%1224,1%Otherrenewables00117,7%0129,2%Total273546592,6%3753713,2%MOMENTUMRUPTUREDefinition-TotalEnergies/CompanyTheentitiesinwhichTotalEnergiesSEdirectlyorindirectlyholdsaninterestareseparateandindependentlegalentities.Theterms"TotalEnergies","TotalEnergiescompany"and"Company"usedinthisdocumentareusedtorefertoTotalEnergiesSEanditsaffiliatesincludedinthescopeofconsolidation.Similarly,theterms"we","us","our"mayalsobeusedtorefertotheseentitiesortheiremployees.ItcannotbeinferredfromtheuseoftheseexpressionsthatTotalEnergiesSEoranyofitsaffiliatesisinvolvedinthebusinessormanagementofanyothercompanyoftheTotalEnergiescompany.DisclaimerThispresentationmayincludeforward-lookingstatementwithinthemeaningofthePrivateSecuritiesLitigationReformActof1995withrespecttothefinancialcondition,resultsofoperations,business,strategyandplansofTotalEnergiesthataresubjecttoriskfactorsanduncertaintiescausedbychangesin,withoutlimitation,technologicaldevelopmentandinnovation,supplysources,legalframework,marketconditions,politicaloreconomicevents.TotalEnergiesdoesnotassumeanyobligationtoupdatepubliclyanyforward-lookingstatement,whetherasaresultofnewinformation,futureeventsorotherwise.Furtherinformationonfactorswhichcouldaffectthecompany’sfinancialresultsisprovidedindocumentsfiledbyTotalEnergieswiththeFrenchAutoritédesMarchésFinanciersandtheUSSecuritiesandExchangeCommission.Accordingly,noreliancemaybeplacedontheaccuracyorcorrectnessofanysuchstatements.CopyrightAllrightsarereservedandallmaterialinthispresentationmaynotbereproducedwithouttheexpresswrittenpermissionofTotalEnergies.DisclaimerandcopyrightreservationTotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook202242