, 孔福林 1, 童莉葛 1,2, 尹少武 1,2, 解雅茹 3, 王 立1,2
(1. 北京科技大学能源与环境工程学院,北京 100083; 2. 北京科技大学冶金工业节能减排北京市重点实验室,北京
100083; 3. 杭州杭氧股份有限公司,浙江 杭州 310005)
摘 要:中国钢产量占世界总产量的 56.7%,CO2排放占世界钢铁总排放的 72.5%,占全国碳排放的 15%。为实现“3060”
目标,对国内外钢铁行业现状、减碳路径与潜力进行了分析,探讨了短流程、能源结构调整和余能利用对碳减排的贡
献度及碳税对减碳的影响。进出口方面,中国 2020 年钢铁出口量占世界总出口量的 12.8%,占中国钢铁产量的 4.8%,
以满足内需为主,适当增加废钢进口量可减少碳税,同时降低中国对铁矿石的依赖度,提高中国在原材料市场的议价
权;当短流程占比提高至 30%时,预计每年减碳 3.8 亿t,对 2030 年减碳贡献率为 2.09%,减少碳税 15.2 亿美元;采
取70%废钢+30%DRI 电炉炼钢流程时,可实现碳减排 0.7 亿t,对 2030 年的减碳贡献达 0.39%,减少 28 亿美元碳税。
实施氧气高炉技术、氢能冶金技术及 CCUS 技术,可减碳 49.55 亿t,对 2030 年减碳贡献率为 24.6%,减少碳税 1 982
亿美元。其中,氢能冶炼减碳效果最显著,可减碳 42.63 亿t,对 2030 年减碳贡献率为 20.79%,减少碳税 1 705.2 亿美
元,其次为氧气高炉,可减碳 3.42 亿t,对 2030 年减碳贡献率为 1.88%,减少碳税 136.8 亿美元。若高品位余能全部
得到有效利用,预计可减碳 1.39 亿~1.4 亿t,对 2030 年减碳贡献率为 0.77%,减少碳税 55.84 亿美元。当低品位余能
利用率从 30%提高至 50%时,预计减碳 0.66 亿t,贡献率为 0.36%,减少碳税 26.4 亿美元。为实现“3060”目标,中国
钢铁行业短期内可提高短流程覆盖率,同时加速研发氧气高炉、氢能冶炼、储能、余能梯级利用等减碳新技术。
关键词:钢铁工业;节能技术;二氧化碳减排;余热回收;短流程;能源供应
文献标志码:A
Analysis of CO2 emission reduction path and potential of China’s steel
industry under the “3060 target”
ZHAO Zi-wei1, KONG Fu-lin1, TONG Li-ge1,2, YIN Shao-wu1,2, XIE Ya-ru3, WANG Li1,2
(1. School of Energy and Environmental Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;
2. Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction for Metallurgical Industry,University of Science and
Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China; 3. Hangzhou Hangyang Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310005,Zhejiang,China)
Abstract: China’s steel production accounts for 56.7% of the world’s total output, CO2 emissions account for 72.5% of the
world's total steel emissions and 15% of national carbon emissions. To achieve the target of “3060”(to achieve peak levels by
2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060),this paper analyzed the current situation of steel industries at home and abroad,as well
as their emission reduction path and potential. Further,it discussed the impact of short process,energy structure adjustment,
waste energy utilization and carbon tax on emission reduction. In terms of import and export,China's steel exports in 2020
accounted for 12.8% of the world's total exports,while accounted for 4.8% of China's steel production,indicating that China’s
steel production was mainly to meet the domestic demand. Increasing the amount of scrap steel imports appropriately can reduce
the burden of carbon tax and China’s dependence on iron ore,and enhance the country’s bargaining power in the raw material
market. When the proportion of short process rises to 30%,it is expected to reduce carbon emissions by 380 million tons per
year,contributing 2.09% to the 2030 target and reducing USD 1.52 billion of carbon tax. When the EAF(Electric Arc Furnace)
process of 70% scrap steel +30%DRI(Direct Reduced Iron) is adopted,a total carbon reduction of 70 million tons can be
achieved ,contributing 0.39% to 2030 target emissions reduction and achieving carbon tax savings of USD 2.8 billion.
Implementation of oxygen blast furnace ,hydrogen metallurgy and CCUS(Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage )
technologies can project to achieve carbon reduction of 4.955 billion tons,with a contribution rate of 24.6% to carbon reduction