ISOStandardizationForesightFrameworkTrendReport2022݀ForewordThefuturehasbegun.݀SocietyAgegroupsConsumptionMovementofpeopleProsperityTechrisksThechangingnatureofwork݀TechnologyComputingConnectivityCyber-physicalsystemsSmartmanufacturing݀EnvironmentEnergyEnvironmentaldegradation݀EconomyTrade݀PoliticsPowertransition݀ScienceBiotechnology݀Wheretofromhere?ForewordTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?ForewordSocietyThefuturehasbegun.Theworldaroundusischangingandthepaceofchangeisfasterthaneverbefore.Thefuturehasbegunandthosewhodon’twanttogetleftbehindmustensuretheirabilitytolookahead.ThatiswhyISOhasdevelopedaStandardizationForesightFramework;tohelpuslookmoresystematicallyatthelong-termandtoencouragediscussionandexchangewithintheISOsystemaboutfutureopportunitiesforInternationalStandardization.ThistrendreportistheoutputofthefirstphaseoftheStandardizationForesightFramework:environmentalscanning.ItisdesignedtosupporttheISOcommunitytonavigateglobaltrendsasweworktowardsachievingthegoalsandprioritiesoftheISOStrategy2030.Inthisreport,weexpanduponthedriversofchangeidentifiedintheStrategy,breakingthemdownintosmallertrendsandanalyzingtheirlinkstoexistingISOwork.Ourultimateaimistobetterunderstandthecontextinwhichweoperate,sothatISOcaneffectivelymeetemerging-marketneedsandhelptoshapeamoresustainablefuture.ISOStandardizationForesightFrameworkTrendReport2022Inthisreport,weexpanduponthedriversofchangeidentifiedintheStrategy,breakingthemdownintosmallertrendsandanalyzingtheirlinkstoexistingISOwork.ForewordTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?ForewordSocietyManyofthefuturetrendsinthisreportwillbefamiliar.Readerswillrecognize,forexample,theclimateemergency,acceleratingandconvergingtechnologies,shiftinggeopoliticalandeconomicpower,changingdemographicsandevolvingconsumerpreferences.Althoughthecontentmaynotcomeasasurprise,wehopethatpullingtogetherthisinformationwillprovidereaderswithanew,macroperspectiveontheworldaroundusandstandardization’splaceinit.Thisbroadperspectiveshouldhelptoinformstrategyanddecision-making.TheselectedtrendsandSTEEPSclassificationThistrendreportdoesnotclaimtobeall-encompassing–thetrendspresentedherearehigh-levelandhavebeenselectedbecauseoftheirrelevancetostandardizationortotheinternationallandscapewithinwhichISOoperates.Theyarelong-termdrivingforcesthatarealreadyhavingavisibleimpactatthegloballevel.Specificevents,suchastheCOVID-19pandemicortheconflictinUkraine,aregenerallynotmentionedatthislevel,althoughanunderstandingofthetrendspresentedherecanhelpustobettergraspthecontextoftheseeventsandthinkmorebroadlyabouttheirpotentiallong-termconsequences.TakinginspirationfromtheSTEEPSanalysis,whichisatoolusedinstrategytoevaluatetheexternalfactorsimpactinganorganization(alsoknownasPESTorPESTLEanalysis),wehavechosentoclassifyourselectedtrendsusingtheSTEEPScategoriesof:SOCIETY,TECHNOLOGY,ENVIRONMENT,ECONOMY,POLITICSandSCIENCE.ConvergenceAboveall,whatemergesclearlyfromthetrenddescriptionsinthisreportisthehighdegreeofconvergenceandinterlinkagesbetweentrends.Societaltrendsareinextricablylinkedtotechnologicaladvances,whicharethemselvesaffectedbyeconomicandpoliticaltrends,andsoon.Manyfuturechallengeswillariseattheintersectionsofthesetrends,asdomainsthatwereoncedistinctfromoneanother–suchasbiologyandinformationtechnology–becomeincreasinglyintertwined.Whatcouldthismeanforstandardization?ForewordTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?ForewordSocietyHowtoexplorethistrendreportWithinthehigh-levelSTEEPScategories,trendshavebeengroupedinto15sub-categories.Thetrendscanbebrowsedinanyorder,accordingtointerest.Everytrendincludesanoveralldescription,alistofISOcommitteesandkeystandardsrelatedtothetrend(ifany),andlinkstootherISOresourcessuchasnewsstoriesorpublications.Foramoreinteractiveexperienceandeasieraccesstolinkstocommitteesandresources,weinviteyoutoconsulttheWebversionofthereport:https://www.iso.org/foresight.html.OntheWebsite,thetrendreportcanbeexploredbyclickingonthesunburstchartandanadditionalinteractivechartallowsyoutovisualizelinkagesbetweenthetrends.Weinviteyoutoconsultthewebversionofthereport:iso.org/foresight.htmlForewordTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?ForewordSocietyResearchandmethodologyThecontentsofthisreportaretheresultofanenvironmentalscanningprocessimplementedbytheISOCentralSecretariat(ISO/CS)ResearchandInnovationUnit(R&I).1Inordertoidentifythelistoftrendsrelevantforstandardization,theR&Iteamselectedandreviewedpubliclyavailabletrendreportsfromawidevarietyoforganizations(includinggovernments,internationalorganizations,thinktanks,Non-GovernmentalOrganizations(NGOs),researchinstitutesandconsultingfirms).2Tobeselectedforreview,thetrendreportshadtomeetaseriesofcriteria:lessthanfiveyearsold,publishedbyareputablesource(noideologicalbiasandnoprofitmotive),includereferencesandaclearmethodologyforidentifyingandinvestigatingtrends,andberegionalorglobalinfocus.Thetrendschosenforinclusioninthisreportwerethosethatfeaturedmostfrequentlyacrossthesepublicationsand/orthosethathadastronglinktostandardization,asrevealedbymappingthetrendstoISO’scurrentandplannedtechnicalactivities.1.ThemethodologywasdevelopedaspartoftheelaborationoftheISOStandardizationForesightFramework,incollaborationwithforesightexpertsfromFutureImpacts,https://future-impacts.de2.Thesesourcesarereferencedinthetrendreport.ForewordSociety݁Agegroups݁Consumption݁Movementofpeople݁Prosperity݁Techrisks݁ThechangingnatureofworkSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›AgegroupsAgeingpopulationYounggenerationinfluencesThesetrendsareaboutdemographicchangesatbothendsofthespectrum.Overall,theworld’spopulationisgrowingolder,butthereareneverthelesssomeregionswheregrowingyoungpopulationswillhavesignificantimpacts.Whileageingpopulationswillhaveimplicationsforthesustainabilityofpublicfinancingmodelsandhealthcare,growingyoungpopulationswillhaveimplicationsforpoliticalbehavioursandeducationsystems.Bothtrendswillprofoundlyaffectworkforceandemploymentmodels.AgeingpopulationPopulationsareageinginmostcountriesintheworld.3Populationageingdescribesanincreaseinthesizeofacountry’spopulationoveracertainage.Generally,thecut-offforanalyzinggrowthinthe‘oldage’groupis65years.Thatis,peopleconsideredtobeof‘oldage’areaged65andover.Foryearsnow,increasesintheproportionofpopulationsaged65andoverhaveoccurredinmostcountries.Populationageingoccursasaresultofmultiplefactors:•Increaseinaveragelifeexpectancy:Averagelifeexpectancyisgenerallycalculatedas‘lifeexpectancyatbirth’.Lifeexpectancycanbeincreasedbydecreasingchildmortality;improvementsinoverallpopulationhealth;theeliminationofdiseasesthatcontributetoprematuredeaths;andincreasedaccesstohealthcareandotherfactors.Inmanycountries,lifeexpectancyhasincreasedwitheconomicdevelopment.43.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)4.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)Relatedtrends:Diversifyinginequalities,Geneediting,Increasingmigration,Reinventingtheworkplace,UrbanizationSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Indevelopedregions,lifeexpectanciesareincreasingbyabouttwomonthsperyear.Thisaddsaboutfiveyearstotheaverageperson’slifespanpergeneration(allotherfactorsbeingequal).5By2040,averagelifeexpectancywillbeabove80in59countries6;in2050,theglobalaveragelifeexpectancywillbe76.7•Lowfertilityrates:Ifpeopledonothaveenoughchildrento‘replace’thepopulation,olderagegroupscanstarttooutnumberyoungeragegroups.•Reducedmigration:Migrationgenerallybringsyoung,working-agepeopleintoapopulation.Ifmigrationisreduced,theproportionofthepopulationinthoseagegroupsmaygrowless.Althougheverycountrywillexperienceanincreaseinitsaverageageoverthenextfewdecades,thebalanceofforcesdrivingthistrendwilldifferfromcountrytocountry.5.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)6.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)7.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)8.Ageingandhealth(WorldHealthOrganization,2021)9.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)10.LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean2030.Futurescenarios(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,2016)11.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)Whilepopulationageingstartedinhigh-incomecountries(forexampleinJapan30%ofthepopulationisalreadyover60yearsold),itisnowlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesthatareexperiencingthegreatestchange.By2050,two-thirdsoftheworld’spopulationover60yearswillliveinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries.8Indevelopingcountries,populationscan‘agebeforetheygrowrich’9,10,leadingtochallengingstrainsonpublicresources.Thenumberofpeoplereachingworkingageduringthecomingdecadeswillbesignificantlylowerthanintheprecedingdecades.11Thesizeoftheworkingagepopulationrelativetothepopulationofretireesiscalledthe‘dependencyratio’.Itislikelythatby2050,thedependencyratiowillbebelow2:1in35countriesaroundtheworld.Conversely,thedependencyratioisexpectedtoimproveinmanyAfricancountriesandpartsofAsia.SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Migrationcanbeanimportantcontributortoincreasingthedependencyratioinanotherwiseageingpopulation.12Inmanycountries,migrationisalreadyanimportantfactorinmaintainingaworkingpopulationthatcanmeettheneedsoftheageingpopulation.13Immigrationpolicies,particularlyindevelopedcountries,willneedtobalanceagrowingdemandforworkerswithinternalpoliticaltensionsinthefuture.14Whilesomeolderpeoplewillrequirecareandsupport,olderpopulationsingeneralareverydiverseandmakemultiplecontributionstofamilies,communities,andsocietymorebroadly.Yettheextentoftheseopportunitiesandcontributionsdependsheavilyononefactor:health.Supportivephysicalandsocialenvironmentsenablepeopletodowhatisimportanttothem,despitelossesincapacity.12.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)13.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)14.Globalrisks2035update.Declineornewrenaissance?(AtlanticCouncil,2019)15.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)16.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)17.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)18.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)19.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)20.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)Atasocietallevel,thistrendhasimplicationsfor:•Workforce:Aspeoplestayintheworkforceforlonger,companiesmayneedtoreimagineworkloaddesign,talentmanagementandapproachestotrainingandskillingworkers.15Somecountriesarealreadyincreasingretirementages.16Wecanexpectthatworkersmayapproachtheircareersdifferently,withmore‘portfoliocareers’andlife-longlearning.17•Healthcare:Olderpeoplemayrequiremoreanddifferenttypesofhealthcareastheylivelongerwithintheperiodoflifeassociatedwithdeclininghealth.18Agoalformanycountriesinthefuturewillbe‘morbiditycompression’–thereductionofillhealthtothelastfewyearsoflife.19•Consumertrends:Olderadults,especiallythosewithlongerperiodsofretirementafterexitingtheworkforce,mayhavespecific‘Consumption’patterns.Thesemayincludemobility,safety,andmedicalproducts,butalsoincreasedtourism,leisure,andspending.20OpportunitiesareexpectedintheSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›‘wellbeingeconomy’and‘Theexperienceeconomy’asthelifestylesandtastesofolderconsumerschange.21Whilereducedspendinginretirementcancontributetoslowedeconomicgrowth22,theglobalspendingpowerofpeopleover60isexpectedtohavereachedUSD15trillionby2020andwillcontinuetogrow.23•Physicalandsocialenvironments:Agefriendlycommunitiesthatoffersafeandaccessiblepublicbuildingsandtransport,placesthatareeasytowalkaroundandopportunitiesforsocialinteractionhelpolderpeopletomaintaintheirqualityoflifeandcontributetotheirfamiliesandcommunities.21.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)22.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)23.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC314,Ageingsocieties•ISO25550:2022,Ageingsocieties–Generalrequirementsandguidelinesforanage-inclusiveworkforce•ISO25551:2021,Ageingsocieties–Generalrequirementsandguidelinesforcarer-inclusiveorganizations•ISO25552:2022,Ageingsocieties–Frameworkfordementia-inclusivecommunities•ISO/WD25554,Ageingsocieties–Guidelinesforpromotingwellbeinginlocalcommunitiesandorganizations•ISO/AWITR25555,Ageingsociety–Accessibilityandusabilityconsiderationsforhome-basedhealthcareproducts,relatedservicesandenvironments݁ISO/TMBG,TechnicalManagementBoard-groups•IWA18:2016,Frameworkforintegratedcommunity-basedlife-longhealthandcareservicesinagedsocietiesRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-GrowingoldgracefullywithanewISOtechnicalcommitteeforageingsocieties•ISO-Keepingupwithageingsocieties•ISO-EnjoyretirementthankstoISO9001•ISO-Howtoadapttoageingsocieties•ISO-Thesilvereconomy•ISO-Newframeworkhelpscommunitiesadapttoageingpopulations•ISO-ActiveageingSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›YounggenerationinfluencesWhileageingpopulationswillbeanareaoffocusformanycountries,theinfluencesofyoungergenerationswillalsocreatechallengesandopportunities.Youngerpopulationgroupswillhaveaninfluenceonworkforces,theeconomyanddemandforproductsandservices.Youngpopulationsareofparticularimportanceinsub-SaharanAfrica,wherehalfofthecitizenswillstillbeunder21yearsofageby2035.24Youngpeoplefromalleconomicandculturalbackgroundsareincreasinglyinteractinginonlinespaces.Theyarebothinfluencingandbeinginfluencedbyaglobalspectrumofideas,trends,opinions,andadvertising.25Theseyoungergenerationswillposechallengestogovernments,intheirincreasingpoliticalengagement,andtobusinesses,astheirover-exposuretoadvertisingleadstomoresophisticatedpurchasingdecisions.Manypeopleseeyoungergenerationsashavingstrongopinionsaroundclimatechange,politicalissues,andsocialinjustices.26Theinfluenceofeducatedandtech-savvyyoungpeopleintheworldofworkwillrequireresponsivetalentmanagementandcreativethinkingaboutstaffdevelopmentandcareeropportunities.27Theemploymentopportunitiesoftoday’syouthhavebeenaffectedbysuccessivefinancialcrises.24.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)25.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)26.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)27.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)Relatedtrends:Artificialintelligence,SpreadoftheInternet,SustainableproductionSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Somesuggestthattraditionaleducationsystemshaveinsufficientlypreparedyoungpeopleforincreasinglytechnology-focusedand/orknowledge-basedwork.28Youngpeoplemaybenegativelyaffectedbychangesintheemploymentmarketduetoincreasinguseoftechnologyandchangesinconsumerhabits,leadingtochallengesinbuildingeconomiccapital.2928.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)29.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›ConsumptionTheexperienceeconomySustainableproductionCustomizedproductsConsumerattitudesandpreferencesareconstantlychangingasaresultofmegatrends,suchasincreasing‘Connectivity’,‘Environmentaldegradation’,demographicchanges,shiftinginequalities,andmore.Thetrendsdescribedbelowaresomeofthemorelong-termdrivingforcesthatareaffectinghowcompaniesthinkaboutvaluecreationtoday–itisnolongerjustaboutthefinalproduct,butabouttheinputsthatwentintoitalongthewholevaluechain,howthatproductisproduced,andhowuniqueitis(tailoredtoaspecificcustomer’sneeds).Indeed,itmaynolongerbeaboutaproductatall,asconsumersmoveawayfromwanting‘things’towantingexperiencesthatbringthempersonalgrowthandmorethanmaterialsatisfaction.Giventhatconsumerspendingdrivessuchalargepartoftheglobaleconomy,theseconsumptionrelatedtrendshavewide-rangingimpactsandwillaffectmanyoftheothertrendsfeaturedinthisreport.TheexperienceeconomyThegrowthoftheexperienceeconomyreflectspeople’sincreasingdesireto‘experience’ratherthan‘consume’;to‘do’ratherthanto‘have’.Itisaboutgeneratingmemorableeventsthatarepersonalanduniqueandhaveanimportantemotionalimpact.Theexperienceeconomyisespeciallyevidentinthetravelandtourismsector,where“Travelerstodayareincreasinglydrawntotravelasaformofself-actualizationandpersonaltransformationandgrowth.Theywantmorethanasimplevisittoanewdestinationordaysspentrelaxingonabeach.Instead,thetraveltheyareseekingisanexperienceoftheworldthatgoesdeep−onethatchangestheminwaystheymaynotevenbeawareof.”3030.Skifttrendsreport.Theriseoftransformativetravel(Skift,2018)Relatedtrends:Extendedreality,Newbusinessmodels,Riseofthemiddleclass,Servicesmovingonline,SpreadoftheInternet,SustainableproductionSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Thereareseveralpossibleexplanationsforthegrowthoftheexperienceeconomy.Someseeitasareactiontotheincreasinglydigitalnatureofourlives–inaworldwherewearealwaysconnectedandspendsomuchtimeinteractingincyberspace,themarginalvalueofthephysicalworldincreases.Wemaynolongerneedtogotoaphysicalshop,office,orrestaurantbutwechoosetodosobecauseofthevalueofexperiencingsocialinteractionsanddifferentenvironments.Inthesameway,weseekoutmorein-personexperiencesandgreaterculturalparticipation,ratherthansimplytheacquisitionofmore‘stuff’.31Othersunderstandtheexperienceeconomytrendasanaturalprogressioninattitudestoconsumptionforthegrowingmiddleclasseswhomayhavereached‘peakstuff’.Aswealthincreases,therecomesapointwherematerialstatussymbolsbecomelessattractivecomparedtoservicesandexperiencesthatcanleadto‘self-actualization’byhelpingpeopleachievetheiraspirations.32Somepeopleevenspeakofa‘transformationeconomy’emerging,whereexperiencesarenolongeraboutenjoyment,butaboutpersonaltransformation.Increasingly,theseexperiencesarefacilitatedbynewtechnologies(e.g.4Dcinema,virtualreality),especiallysincetheCOVID-19pandemic.31.Digitalmegatrends.Aperspectiveonthecomingdecadeofdigitaldisruption(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)32.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)33.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)Yetanotherperspectiveisthattheexperienceeconomyis,inpart,areactiontoincreasingsocietalconcernaboutsustainabilityand‘Environmentaldegradation’(see‘Sustainableproduction’).Peoplelookingtoconsumelessaredrivingthegrowthofthesharingeconomy,andtheriseofrentandsubscriptionmodelsforthings(fromfurnituretocarsandevenclothes)andservices(fromtransporttoaccommodation).33Thesemodelsallowconsumerstoexperience/useproductswithoutowningthem,andtoenjoymoreinteractiveservicesusuallylinkedtoanideaofgreaterauthenticityandresponsibility.Overall,whatthismeansisanimportantshiftineconomicvalue-generation,fromproductstoservices,andanimperativeforproducers/retailerstorethinkhowtheyprovidecustomerexperiencesandcreateaserviceculture.Thisincludesusingnewtechnologies(albeitwiththecaveatthattechnologicaldevelopmentsmustsupporttheprovisionofpersonalizedserviceandpeople’sdesireforemotionandintimacy,notreplacethem).SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC228,Tourismandrelatedservices•ISO/DIS3163,Adventuretourism–Terminology݁ISO/TC312,Excellenceinservice•ISO/TS24082:2021,Serviceexcellence–DesigningexcellentservicetoachieveoutstandingcustomerexperiencesRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Excellenceincustomerservice•ISO-PushingthetourismlimitsSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›SustainableproductionConsumersarebecomingmoreenvironmentallyawareandmoreempowered.Studiesshowthataround65%ofconsumersarewillingtopaymoreforproducts/servicesthatareenvironmentallyfriendlyandsociallyresponsible,andtheyalsoincreasinglyexpectcompaniestopayattentiontotheenvironmentandbetransparentabouttheirbehaviours.34Thissentimentisespeciallystrongamongsttheyoungergenerationsandispredictedtogrow.Atthesametime,governmentsareputtingpressureonindustrythroughenvironmentalregulations,astheyreflectthegrowingenvironmentalconcernsoftheirelectoratesandputinplacepoliciestohelpthemachievetheircommitmentstotheUNSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs).Asaresult,‘goinggreen’hasbecomeanimportantbusinessstrategyandincreasingly,companiesareredesigningtheirbusinessmodelstobemoreenvironmentallyfriendlyandsustainable.Thisincludesadoptinglifecyclemodelssuchascradle-to-cradle(circulareconomy),sharingeconomyorpeer-to-peereconomicmodels(see‘Newbusinessmodels’),reducingemissionsandcreatingshortersupplychains.35,36Anditisnotjustaboutreputationandmarketing–companiesalsoadoptsustainablebusinessmodelstofosterinnovation,improveoperationalefficiency,andlowercosts.Whilethistrendofincreasingdemandforeco-friendlyandsustainableproductshasbeenevident(andgrowing)formanyyearsnow,amorerecentcountertrendofclimate34.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)35.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)36.Globaltrends2020.Understandingcomplexity(Ipsos,2020)Relatedtrends:Additivemanufacturing,Naturalresourcescarcity,Newbusinessmodels,Newgenerationplastics,ThreatenedecosystemsSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›scepticismandfatigue/jadednesswithenvironmentalismisnowbecomingevident.Oldergenerations,inparticular,donottrustwhatscientistssayonenvironmentalissues(53%of60-74-year-oldscomparedto39%of16-24-year-olds).Climate-denyingattitudesappearlinkedtotheriseofpopulisminmanysocieties.37RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC34,Foodproducts•ISO34101-3:2019,Sustainableandtraceablecocoa–Part3:Requirementsfortraceability݁ISO/TC189,Ceramictile•ISO17889-1:2021,Ceramictilingsystems–Sustainabilityforceramictilesandinstallationmaterials–Part1:Specificationforceramictiles•ISO/DIS17889-2,Ceramictilingsystems–Sustainabilityforceramictilesandinstallationmaterials–Part2:Specificationfortileinstallationmaterials݁ISO/TC207/SC3,Environmentallabelling•ISO14020:2000,Environmentallabelsanddeclarations–GeneralprinciplesRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-ResponsibleConsumptionandProduction•ISO-Foodforthefuture•ISO-Pavingthewaytoamoresustainableworld•ISO-Food,Feed,Fibre•ISO-Raisingthebaronsustainableconsumption݁ISO/TMBG,TechnicalManagementBoard–groups•ISO/TMBG/SAG_ESG,StrategicAdvisoryGrouponEnvironmental,Social,Governance(ESG)Ecosystem•ISO20400:2017,Sustainableprocurement37.Globaltrends2020.Understandingcomplexity(Ipsos,2020)SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›CustomizedproductsPersonalizationofthecustomerexperiencehasbeenagrowingtrendforsomeyearsnow.Oneclearexampleofthisisinthedigitalworld,where,forexample,servicesofferedbyGoogle,Facebook,YouTube,Apple,etc.curatesearches,newsfeeds,products,advertisementsandmorebasedonauser’spersonalhistoryofsearches,purchases,andonlineinteractions.38Digitalplatformsandtheincreasedconnectivityofcustomersalsooffercustomizationofphysicalgoods–throughdigitalplatforms,customershaveproductsandservicesavailableattheirfingertipsandthedigitalmediumallowsthemtospecifyinstantlyandconvenientlywhattheywant,providingfeedbacktocompaniesonwhattoproduce.Technologicaladvancesin‘Additivemanufacturing’(3Dprinting),machinelearningandthe‘InternetofThings’(IoT)willlikelyacceleratethistrend,reducingthecosttobusinessesofcustomizingtheirproductsandservices.Thisaffectsbusinessmodels(mostcompaniesalreadyviewcustomizationasastrategicpriorityandmaymoveawayfrommassmanufacturingmodels)39andcouldalsoaffectglobalvaluechains(whichneedtobecomeshorterandmoreflexible,leadingtochangesinthenatureofgoodsbeingshippedandthemoveofproductionclosertomarkets).40Whilesomeindustrysurveysshowthatdemandforcustomizationandpersonalizationishigh,forexample,67%ofrespondentsinasurveyrunbyAdobesaidcustomizedcontent38.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)39.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)40.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)Relatedtrends:Additivemanufacturing,Artificialintelligence,Changingtradepatterns,Dataprivacy,Riseofthemiddleclass,Robotics,SpreadoftheInternetSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›wasimportantand42%saidimpersonalizedcontentannoysthem41,therearealsosignificantconcernsabout‘Dataprivacy’andsecurity(commercialuseofpersonaldata).Therespondentshadotherconcerns,notablyanindividuallackofagency(peoplefeelingtheirexperiencesaredeterminedforthemwithouttheirknowledge)andthecreationofgroupandindividual‘echochambers’,i.e.recommendationsystemsonlyshowingpeoplecontentthatconfirmstheirexistingbeliefs/preferences,possiblyleadingtoincreasinglyradicalizedcontent,spreadingofmisinformation,andconspiracytheories.42Thecontinuedtrajectoryofthistrendwilldependpartlyontheabilityofcompaniestomaintainconsumeragencyandtrust.RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC133,Clothingsizingsystems–sizedesignation,sizemeasurementmethodsanddigitalfittings•ISO/DTS3736-2,Digitalfitting–Serviceprocedure–Part2:Customizedclothingonlineandoff-line݁ISO/TC261,Additivemanufacturing•ISO/ASTM52900:2021,Additivemanufacturing–Generalprinciples–Fundamentalsandvocabulary•ISO/ASTM52910:2018,Additivemanufacturing–Design–Requirements,guidelinesandrecommendationsRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Pavingthewaytoamoresustainableworld41.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)42.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›MovementofpeopleUrbanizationIncreasingmigrationWhetherwithinorbetweencountries,bychoiceorbyforce,thesetrendsdemonstratethatpeoplearedefinitelyonthemove.Astheglobalpopulationgrows,sodoratesofurbanizationandmigration,withpotentiallysignificantsocial,political,andenvironmentalimplications(see‘Agegroups’).Thereisamultitudeoffactorspushingpeopletomove,includingeconomicdevelopment,conflict,politicalinstabilityand,increasingly,theimpactsofclimatechange.Morepeopleliveoutsidetheircountryofbirththaneverbeforeandmanyofthemendupincities,whicharegrowinginnumber,insizeandinimportance.Indeed,thepowerofcitiesaseconomicandsocialcentrescouldpotentiallyseethemovertakecountriesasthedominantpoliticalentitiesinfuture(see‘Changingtradepattern’).Ifmanagedwell,urbancentreswillfostersocialandeconomicdevelopmentandmoresustainableliving.Butinplaceswherethepaceofgrowthoutstripstheresourcestosupportit,thistrendcouldcompoundsocialinequalitiesandleadtogreaterconflict.UrbanizationIncreasingly,peoplearemovingfromruralareastocities,resultinginsignificantgrowthinurbanpopulations.Peopleareseekingtheeconomicopportunitiesandincreasedqualityoflifethatlivingincitiescanoffer.Itisexpectedthat70%oftheworld’spopulationwillliveincitiesby2045.4343.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)Relatedtrends:Ageingpopulation,Autonomousvehicles,Increasedmigration,InternetofThings,Multipolarity,Riseofthemiddleclass,Smartcities,ThreatenedecosystemsSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Forindividuals,urbanlifecanoffermanyopportunities:improvedaccesstoserviceslikeeducationandhealthcare,dailyconveniencesofferedbyurbaninfrastructureandaccesstobroaderjobmarkets.Thebenefitsforsocietyasawholearesignificant:citiesareassociatedwitheconomicgrowth44,wealthgenerationandinnovation.45Citiesareextremelyproductiveandcontributemorethan80%ofglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP).46Forcities,increasedpopulationinflowscancreatestrainonresourcesandchallengesforcityplannersandresourcemanagers.47Urbanizationcanbeseenasadouble-edgedsword–itoffersthepossibilityofincreasedsocialandeconomicdevelopmentalongsidetheriskofcompoundingsocialinequity.4844.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)45.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)46.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sworld(Deloitte,2017)47.Africanfutures.Keytrendsto2035(InstituteforSecurityStudies,2017)48.Africanfutures.Keytrendsto2035(InstituteforSecurityStudies,2017)49.Africanfutures.Keytrendsto2035(InstituteforSecurityStudies,2017)50.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)51.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)52.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)Particularlyinthedevelopingworld,whereurbanplanninghasnotanticipatedsubstantialgrowthandresourcesarealreadystretched,increasingurbanizationmaycreateproblemsaswellasopportunitiesinthecomingdecades.Historically,unplanned,orinformalurbansettlementshaveexacerbatedinequalities49,andinmanycountries,serviceprovisionintheseareasisnotkeepingpacewithurbanpopulationgrowth.50Rapidurbanizationcouldleadtoconflictinplaceswhereresourcesareinsufficientand/orpoorlymanaged51,butwhereitiswell-manageditmayyieldsignificantbenefitstourbanizingpopulations.52SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Multiplecity‘types’areexpectedtoincreaseinnumberinthecomingdecades.Muchoftheattentionaroundurbanizationisfocusedonso-called‘mega-cities’,usuallydefinedashavingpopulationsofatleast10million.53,54,55Whilethenumberofmega-citiesisexpectedtogrowsomewhat,thebulkofthegrowthincitieswilloccurin‘small’(under1millioninhabitants),‘medium’sized(1-5millioninhabitants)56and‘large’(5-10millioninhabitants)cities.57TheWorldBank58offersaclassificationoflargecities:•Globalhubs:Citiesthatwealthandtalentflowthough.ExamplesincludeSingapore,London,andNewYork.•Mega-cities:Citieswithlargepopulationsthatare‘populationmagnets’fortheirrespectiveregions.ExamplesincludeMumbai,SaoPaolo,Jakarta.•Gatewaycities:Citiesthatfunctionaspartofregionalclustersthatfacilitateaccesstospecificmarkets.ExamplesincludeDubai,Almaty,Johannesburg.53.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)54.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)55.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)56.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)57.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)58.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)59.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)60.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)Thinkingofthesefunctionsofcitiesraisesinterestingquestionsforcityplannersandfortheroleofcitiesinglobaltrade,bothphysicalanddigital.AccordingtotheEuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem59,“Whenwesay2030willbeurban,thisisnotmerelyanexpressionofresidency,itwillbethewayoflifeofsocietyasawhole.”Perhapsparadoxically,citiescanprovideopportunitiesforincreasedsustainabilityandreductionofenvironmentalimpacts.Whilecitiesareexpectedtoberesponsiblefor70%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions,theyarealsoplaceswhereproactiveandinnovativeenvironmentalmanagementandurbanplanningcanyieldsubstantialbenefits.Higherdensitylivingallowsformorecoordinationofwastemanagement,innovativeenergymanagement,reducedrelianceoncarsfortransportandefficientdistributionoffoodandotherresources.Publictransitandsustainabletransportoptionsareaparticularareaofopportunityintermsofactingontheopportunitiesofferedbyincreasedurbanization.60SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Politically,urbanizationcanincreasethepoweroflocalgovernments,leadingtomorelocalizeddecision-makingand,perhaps,moreempowermentofcitizens.61Citieshavebeendescribedas‘virtualislands’;placeswhereresourceallocationandgeneration/distributionofpowercanbemanagedwithinarelativelyclosedsystemtothebenefitofall.62TheInter-AmericanDevelopmentBankandtheInter-AmericanDialogue63suggestwecanlookforwardtoapositivefutureincities.Successfulurbanareaswillbetheonesthat:improveservices;enhancenationalandinternationalconnectivity(theInternet);ensurewaterandelectricitysupplies;raiselevelsofeducationandhealthcare;anticipateadaptationtoclimatechangeplansandmeasures;considergreeningcities;providetalentpoolsoftechnicalspecialistsandotherexperts;secureefficientandreliablefinancialsystems;cultivateculturalactivity,and;providecitizenswithtwoimportantbenefits,i.e.animprovedqualityoflifeandincreasedproductivity.61.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)62.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)63.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC268,Sustainablecitiesandcommunities•ISO37105:2019,Sustainablecitiesandcommunities–Descriptiveframeworkforcitiesandcommunities•ISO37106:2021,Sustainablecitiesandcommunities–Guidanceonestablishingsmartcityoperatingmodelsforsustainablecommunities•ISO37120:2018,Sustainablecitiesandcommunities–Indicatorsforcityservicesandqualityoflife݁ISO/TC282/SC2,Waterreuseinurbanareas•ISO20760-1:2018,Waterreuseinurbanareas–Guidelinesforcentralizedwaterreusesystem–Part1:Designprincipleofacentralizedwaterreusesystem•ISO23070:2020,Waterreuseinurbanareas–Guidelinesforreclaimedwatertreatment:DesignprinciplesofaROtreatmentsystemofmunicipalwastewater݁ISO/TC297,Wastecollectionandtransportationmanagement•ISO/DIS24161,Wastecollectionandtransportationmanagement–Vocabulary•ISO24162:2022,TestmethodforenergyconsumptionofrefusecollectionvehiclesRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-SustainableCitiesandCommunities•ISO-Howdowebuildsustainablecitiesofthefuture•ISO-Thefuturelookssmart•ISO-NewISOstandardforurbanresilience•ISO-WritingthefutureonWorldCitiesDay•ISO-Strongercitiesforthefuture:anewsetofInternationalStandardsjustout•ISO-Solutionsfortoday’surbanchallengesinthelatestISOfocusSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›IncreasingmigrationInternationally,peopleareonthemove.Reducedcostsoftransportation,climatechangeandeconomicopportunitiesareallexpectedtodriveincreasinginternationalmigrationinthecomingdecades.64,65,66,67Whileopportunisticmigrationhasbeencommonforsometime,theeffectsofclimatechangeareexpectedtopromptsignificantnumbersofpeopletomigrateinternationallyinthecomingdecades.Infact,theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)hasnotedthat“thegreatestsingleimpactofclimatechangecouldbeonhumanmigration.”68Thenumberofpeopledisplacedbyconflictandpoliticalinstabilityisalsoexpectedtoincrease.69Morerefugeesmovingalongnewandexistingmigrationrouteswillhaveimplicationsforpublicpolicyandinternationalgovernance.Economicdevelopmentintheglobalsouthmayalsocontributetohigherlevelsofinternationalmigration.Whilemanyassumethateconomicdevelopmentwillreducethenumberofpeopleemigratinginsearchofeconomicopportunities,infactitisobservedthateconomicgrowthleadstoaninitialincreaseinemigration,presumablyascitizensarebettereducatedandhavemoreaccesstoconnectivity,transportandinternationaljobopportunities.Emigrationtendsto64.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)65.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)66.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)67.Globaltrends2020.Understandingcomplexity(Ipsos,2020)68.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)69.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)Relatedtrends:Ageingpopulation,Naturalresourcescarcity,Riseofthemiddleclass,Threatenedecosystems,UrbanizationSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›reducewhenacountryissufficientlydevelopedthattherearegoodopportunitiesforworkers‘athome’.70Fordevelopedmarketsreceivingmigrants,thismeansaccesstoanincreasedworking-agepopulationtosupportageingsocieties.71Inmanydevelopedcountries,migrantsalsohelptoslowthedeclineinpopulationgrowthassociatedwithlowerfertilityrates.72Companiescanexpecttohaveanincreasinglymobileanddiverseworkforceavailabletothem,whilecountrieshostingmigrantscanenjoytheculturalbenefitsofdiversityalongwiththeeconomicbenefitsofanenlargedworkforce.70.Globalrisks2035update.Declineornewrenaissance?(AtlanticCouncil,2019)71.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)72.Globalrisks2035update.Declineornewrenaissance?(AtlanticCouncil,2019)SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?DiversifyinginequalitiesRiseofthemiddleclassStagnatinghappinesslevelsTheworldisundoubtedlymoreprosperoustodaythanithaseverbeenbefore.Butthewaythatprosperityissharedacrosstheglobeisstillfarfromequalandthetrendsthataffectprosperityarefarfromsimple.Thisisespeciallytrueifyouconsiderthemeaningof‘prosperity’togobeyondmoney,andincludethingslikewellbeingandequality.Economicgrowth,demographicchangeandtechnologicaladvancesarejustsomeofthecomplexforcesdrivingthesetrendsinprosperity.DiversifyinginequalitiesInequalityisgrowing.Whileeconomic(income)inequalityisoftenthefocusofdiscussion,itislinkedtomanyothertypesofinequalitythatarealsoontherise,includinggender,intergenerational,digitalandracial/ethnicinequality.73Thistrendof‘diversifyinginequalities’alsohasstronglinkstomanyothertrends.Althougheconomicinequalitybetweencountrieshasreducedoverthelast30years(largelyduetorapideconomicgrowthinAsia),inequalitywithinmanycountrieshasincreasedandispredictedtorisesteeplyincomingdecades,ifcurrenttrendscontinue.7473.Theglobalrisksreport2021(WorldEconomicForum,2021)74.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)Relatedtrends:Changingtradepatterns,Effectsofautomation,Reinventingtheworkplace,Stagnatinghappinesslevels,UrbanizationSocietyForeword‹›ProsperitySocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Anumberofinterlinkedfactorswillcontributetothisrise,suchas:•slowerandmorevolatileeconomicgrowth(compoundedbyhighgovernmentdebt,swingsinfinancialandcommoditymarketsandthethreatofanuneveneconomicreboundaftertheCOVID-19crisis);•potentialjoblossesduetoautomationandshiftsinthejobmarkettowardlowerpaidormoreprecariousemployment(morefreelancers,sharingeconomy,temporaryworkersanddeclininglabourmarketprotections);•theimpactofthetechnologysectorexacerbatingwealthconcentrationamongstthosewiththerightskillsandcapitalownership(1%oftheworld’spopulationmayowntwo-thirdsofglobalwealthby2030,entrenchingpowerinthehandsofeliteswhowillbelesslikelytoimplementeconomicreformsthatwillbenefitthepoor)75;and•populationgrowthandmobility,particularlyindevelopingcountries(economicopportunitieswillbegreaterinurbanareas,creatingpotentialforgrowingurbanslumsandincreasingurban/ruralinequalities).75.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)76.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)77.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)Notonlyisinequalitygrowing,butawarenessofitisgrowing,asincreasingnumbersofpeoplegainaccesstotheInternetandsocialmedia.Thisgrowinginequality,togetherwithheightenedawareness,couldleadtosocialfragmentationfuelledbyperceivedinjustices.Discontentspursprotestsandviolentmobilization,increasingsupportforpopulistornationalistleaders.Itadditionallyleadstodecreasingsupportforglobalizationandtradeliberalization,whichareseenashavingcreatedthissituationofinequality.Crimeincreasesinturn,asdoesthepotentialforreligiousradicalization.76,77SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/PC337,Guidelinesforthepromotionandimplementationofgenderequality•ISO/AWI53800,Guidelinesforthepromotionandimplementationofgenderequality݁ISO/TMB,TechnicalManagementBoard•IWA34:2021,Women’sentrepreneurship–KeydefinitionsandgeneralcriteriaRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-GenderEquality•ISO-ReducedInequalities•ISO-ISOraisesthestandardongenderequality•ISO-ISOstandardscanhelptackleglobalinequality,saysUNWomenexpertSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›RiseofthemiddleclassThetrendtowardspovertyreductionaroundtheworldhasbeenongoingfordecades,inEuropeforatleast50years,andmorerecentlyinAsiaandLatinAmerica.Inparticular,extremepoverty(definedaslivingonlessthanUSD1.90/day)sawahugedecrease,from36%oftheworld’spopulationin1990to10%in2015.78Somereportspredictthatby2030,themajorityoftheworld’spopulationwillbemiddleclass(definedasthosefallingbetween67-200%ofthemedianincomeinacountry)79,withthemiddleclassintheAsia-Pacificgrowingatatremendousrate,ledbyChinaandIndia.Indeed,by2030,theAsia-Pacificregionisforecasttobehometotwo-thirdsoftheglobalmiddleclass,whowillbecometheworld’sbiggestspenders.80Aspeoplegetricher,theycanshifttheirfocusfromsurvivaltoenjoymentoflife,progressivelyseekingbetterquality(andmore)goodsandservices.Therisingmiddleclassescouldbecomeakeyengineofeconomicgrowthincomingdecades,astheyconsumehigherqualitygoods,travelmore,investmoreandimprovetheireducationlevels.Withmorepurchasingpowerandmoreaccesstoinformation,theymaydevelopastrongerpoliticalvoiceandcreatepressureinmanypartsoftheworldtostrengthendemocraticprocessesandinstitutions.81Atthesametime,however,thiswillalsoleadtoincreasedconsumptionofenergy(largelyfossilfuelsinAsiaandAfrica)andcouldexacerbaterisksrelatedtoclimatechangeand78.PovertyOverview(WorldBank,2014)79.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)80.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)81.LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean2030.Futurescenarios(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,2016)Relatedtrends:Customizedproducts,Diversifyinginequalities,Increasingmigration,Naturalresourcescarcity,Stagnatinghappinesslevels,Theexperienceeconomy,ThreatenedecosystemsSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›resourcescarcity.Goodgovernance,innovationandnewtechnologieswillbevitalifwearetoreconcileincreasingmiddleclassconsumptionandsustainability.Ofcourse,theeconomicdownturnresultingfromtheCOVID-19pandemichasslowedprogressinreducingpovertyandstalledtheexpansionoftheglobalmiddleclass,sosomeofthesepredictionsmayhavetoberevisedoncethelonger-termeffectsofthepandemicbecomeclearer.82Inamorepessimisticscenariowhereeconomicslowdownisprotracted,somepredictthatafrustratedmiddleclass,fearingabackslideintopoverty,maybecomeaforceforinstabilityorabastionofpopulism.82.Thepandemicstallsgrowthintheglobalmiddleclass,pushespovertyupsharply(PewResearchCenter,2021)RelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-HowstandardscanleadtobetterlivesSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›StagnatinghappinesslevelsPeoplearebecomingmoreprosperousoverallastheglobalmiddleclassgrows,butthisgrowthismostlyindevelopingcountries.Indevelopedcountries,bycontrast,middleclasswagesandemploymentcouldbethreatenedbyincreasedautomationandglobalcompetitioninlow-costmanufacturing(forexample,McKinseyestimatedthatasof2014,two-thirdsofhouseholdsindevelopedeconomieshadrealincomesatorbelowtheir2005levels).83Sloweconomicgrowthmeansthatthesecitizens,whohavecometoexpectregularrisesinlivingstandardsovertime,willnolongerperceiveanyvisibleimprovements,leadingtopublicdissatisfaction,disappointmentandstagnatinghappinesslevels.Astheirsocietiesalsobecomemoreunequal,thisdissatisfactioncouldevenleadtosocialdivisionsandinternalconflict.84Atthesametime,governmentswillfinditincreasinglydifficulttofundrisingwelfarecostsandinvestmentinpublicserviceswithoutsufficienteconomicgrowth.Intheabsenceofaneconomicmiracle,governmentswillhavetoconcentratemoreontheotherelementsthatcandeterminehumanhappinesssuchasmentalwellbeingandsocialconnectivity.8583.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)84.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)85.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)Relatedtrends:Diversifyinginequalities,RiseofthemiddleclassSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›TechrisksEthicsoftechnologyDataprivacyCyber-vulnerabilityAstechnologybecomesintegratedintomoreaspectsofourlives,theprofileofrisksassociatedwithtechnologyisalsoexpanding.Newadvancesinmanykindsoftechnologiesposepotentially,significantethicalchallenges(e.g.‘Artificialintelligence’(AI),‘Biotechnology’,ordecarbonizationtechnologies).Thiscoincideswithourincreasinguseofthesetechnologies,creatingpotentialrisksatamacro-level(e.g.cybersecurityofanation’scriticalinfrastructures)andatamicro-level(e.g.securityofpersonaldataandindividuals’vulnerabilitytoonlinemanipulation).Suchrisksarecertainlytobeexpectedwiththeadventofdisruptivetechnologiesandtheyarethepricewehavetopayforthegreatbenefitsthesetechnologiesofferus;itisaquestionofhowwellwerecognizeandmitigatetheseriskssoastoensurethatnewtechnologiescanbeusedforthebenefitofall.EthicsoftechnologyManygovernmentsaroundtheworldareturningtheirattentiontotheethicsoftechnologyandtheimplicationsoffast-developingtechnologyforfuturesocieties.Ethicsrelatedtotheuseof‘Artificialintelligence’forautomatedvehicles,automateddecisions,andconsumerinteractionsaretopicsthatarefrequentlyraised86andgovernmentswillincreasinglybeexpectedtoaddressconcernsarounddigitalharm,disinformation,antitrustandforeigninterference.87TheAI-enabledtechnologiesofthefuturemustbenefit86.Digitalmegatrends.Aperspectiveonthecomingdecadeofdigitaldisruption(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)87.Theglobalrisksreport2021(WorldEconomicForum,2021)Relatedtrends:Artificialintelligence,Autonomousvehicles,Dataprivacy,Geneediting,Naturalresourcescarcity,Robotics,Syntheticbiology,ThreatenedecosystemsSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›fromeffective‘technical,legal,andethicalframeworks’,accordingtotheUKMinistryofDefence.88EthicalquestionsareperhapsmostcriticalintheareaofmilitarizedAI,andtheuseoftechnologyinconflict.Whilemachinescouldbehavewithoutregardforhumansuffering,theymayalsomoreaccuratelycalculatethecostsofconflict.ComplexitiescanbeexpectedtoariseifcountriesdevelopconflictingethicalandlegalframeworksforAI,bothinmilitarycontextsandmorebroadly.89OtherkeyethicalissuesrelatedtoAIsystemsareaboutunwantedbias,eavesdropping,andsafety,andindustryisalreadybusytryingtoaddressthese.TheISO/IECcommitteeworkingonAI(ISO/IECJTC1/SC42)hascollected132usecasesforAI,includingethicalconsiderationsandsocietalconcernsforeach(formoredetails,seeISO/IECTR24030:2021,Informationtechnology–Artificialintelligence(AI)–Usecases).WhenconsideringtheethicsofusingAI,however,itisequallyimportanttoconsidertheethicsofnotusingAI.TherisksofusingAIarefrequentlydiscussed,butonequestionthatisnotaddressedoftenenoughis–whendoesitbecomeunethicalforusnottouseAI?Forexample,ifAItechnologycouldpredictthenextpandemicorspeedupvaccinedevelopment,onecouldarguethatitwouldbeunethicalnottousethistechnology.Thereareplentyofexampleslikethis,for88.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)89.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)90.Globaltrends.ParadoxofProgress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)91.Globaltrends.ParadoxofProgress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)92.Globaltrends2040.Amorecontestedworld(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2021)instance,acommonquestionposedis:ifanAI-enabledautonomousvehiclehadtohitsomeone,whoshouldithit?ButisthistherightquestioniftheproperuseofAI-enabledautonomousdrivingcanhelpsavelivesbyreducingaccidentsoverall?Ofcourse,AIisnottheonlyemergingtechnologythatcouldposesignificantethicalchallengesinthefuture.Advancementsinbiotechnologycould–alone,orincombinationwithAI–leadtothecreationofsyntheticlifeformsoraugmentedhumanbeings,withenhancedphysicalorcognitiveabilities.Howtoregulatetechnologiesthatcanfundamentallyalterhumancapabilitiesorchangethehumangenepool“couldpromptstridentdomesticandinternationalbattles”incomingdecades(see‘Geneediting’).90Eventechnologicaladvancestotreatdiseasescouldengenderpoliticaldebatesabouttheethicsofaccess(sincetreatmentsarelikelytobeavailableonlytothosewhocanaffordthem).91Nottomentioncontinuedethicaldebatesaboutgeneticallyengineeredcropsandfoodsandtheirpotentialecologicalorhealth-relatedconsequences.92Astheclimatecrisisbecomesmoreurgent,wemayalsosoonfaceethicalissuesrelatedtotheuseofnewtechnologiesforSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›decarbonization.Whilegeoengineeringtechnologies(carbondioxide[CO2]removalandsolar-radiationmanagement)haveformanyyearsbeenconsideredmorallyunacceptable,theyarenowgainingmoreattentionaspotentialsolutionsoflastresort.93Ethicalconcernshererangefromdistributivejusticeforfuturegenerationsorvulnerablepopulations(negativeeffectsofgeoengineeringactionscoulddisproportionatelysomecountriesorpopulationse.g.byincreasingdroughtinAfricaandAsia),toproceduraljusticequestions(whoshoulddecidetousethesetechnologiesandhow?).RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC42,Artificialintelligence•ISO/IECDIS23894,Informationtechnology–Artificialintelligence–Riskmanagement•ISO/IECTR24030:2021,Informationtechnology–Artificialintelligence(AI)–Usecases•ISO/IECDTR24368,Informationtechnology–Artificialintelligence–Overviewofethicalandsocietalconcerns݁ISO/TC241,Roadtrafficsafetymanagementsystems•ISO/DIS39003,RoadTrafficSafety(RTS)–Guidanceonsafetyethicalconsiderationsforautonomousvehicles݁ISO/CASCO,Committeeonconformityassessment•ISO/TS17033:2019,Ethicalclaimsandsupportinginformation–PrinciplesandrequirementsRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-It’sallabouttrust•ISO-Toethicizeornottoethicize…•ISO-Bigplansforbigdata93.Ethicsofgeoengineering(ViterbiConversationsinEthics,2021)SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Dataprivacy“Trustandaccountabilityarethenewlitmustestsforbusinessesinaworldwheredigitaliseverywhere.”94Inthefuture,willdataprivacybeathingofthepast?Manysourcesagreethatthereisacleartrendtowardstheprogressivelossofprivacythataccompaniesnewdevelopmentsintechnology.AccordingtotheUKMinistryofDefence,“Inthecomingdecades,everyfacetofone’slifeislikelytoberecordedbytheubiquitouspresenceofwearabledevices,smartsensorsandthe‘InternetofThings’.”95Butatthesametime,thereisalsoatrendtowardsemphasizingprivacy,forexample,usingprivacybydesigndevelopment.Onceprivacy-respectingtechnologyisavailable,themarkethasthechoice,andtheglobalsuccessoftheEuropeanUnion’sGeneralDataProtectionRegulation(GDPR)principlesisanindicatorofthistrend.96Theuseofbiometricdata,suchasfingerprintsandfacialmapping,isincreasinginbothprivate(e.g.socialmediaandpersonaltechnologyproducts)andpublic(lawenforcementandpopulationsurveillance)contexts.97,98Consumertrustwillbeanincreasinglyimportantissueastechnologybecomesincreasinglyprolificineverydayactivities.Already,amajorityofconsumersarewaryofconnecteddevicesandfearfulofmisuseoftheirpersonaldata.99,10094.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)95.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)96.TwoyearsofGDPR:Questionsandanswers(EuropeanCommission,2020)97.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)98.20Newtechnologytrendswewillseeinthe2020s(BBCScienceFocusMagazine,2020)99.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)100.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)Relatedtrends:Artificialintelligence,Blockchain,Customizedproducts,Cyber-vulnerability,Ethicsoftechnology,InternetofThingsSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Someevensuggesttheremaybea‘digitalbubble’,theburstingofwhichwillbedueinparttoprivacyconcerns–“Concernsaboutdataprivacyhavecalledintoquestionwhetherdigitaltechnologieswillcontinuetogrowatthisrate.”101Atthesametime,companiesareadjustingtomarketconditionsand,ifthemarketdemandsprivacy,industrywilldevelopappropriateproducts.102Industryneedstorealizethatprivacy-respectingproductsarenotmuchmoreexpensive(ifwelldone),butcaninsteadprovideacompetitiveadvantage,sincetrustisakeydecisionfactorforconsumersfacedwithmultipleoptions.Initiativesallowingthecreationof‘digitaltrust’,suchasYelpandFoursquare,arethuslikelytogrowinpopularity.103Oncesocietyacknowledgesthatdatahasavalueandthereforethedataownerneedstobepaid,a‘newbalance’willbeestablished.Thequestionis,ifandwhensuchanacknowledgementmaycome…?Inthemeantime,toreassureconsumers,bothgovernmentregulationandbusinessleadershiparenecessarytoestablishprivacyanddatamanagementstandardsthatkeeppacewithemergingneeds.104Indeed,thiswillbeagrowingconsumerexpectation.105Ultimately,itseemsinevitablythattechnologywillpermeatealmosteverythingwedoandleadtoenormousimprovementsinqualityoflifeacrosssociety.However,thesebenefitswillneedtobecarefullybalancedwiththeaccompanyingriskstoprivacyandsecurity.106101.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)102.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)103.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)104.20Newtechnologytrendswewillseeinthe2020s(BBCScienceFocusMagazine,2020)105.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)106.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC27,Informationsecurity,cybersecurityandprivacyprotection•ISO/IEC27009:2020,Informationsecurity,cybersecurityandprivacyprotection–Sector-specificapplicationofISO/IEC27001–Requirements•ISO/IEC27701:2019,Securitytechniques–ExtensiontoISO/IEC27001,andISO/IEC27002,forprivacyinformationmanagement–Requirementsandguidelines݁ISO/PC317,Consumerprotection:privacybydesignforconsumergoodsandservices•ISO/DIS31700,Consumerprotection–PrivacybydesignforconsumergoodsandservicesRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Protectingprivacyandconsentonline•ISO-Safe,secureandprivate,whateveryourbusiness•ISO-HowMicrosoftmakesyourdataitspriority•ISO-Tacklingprivacyinformationmanagementheadon:firstinternationalstandardjustpublished•ISO-Dataprivacybydesign:anewstandardensuresconsumerprivacyateverystepSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Cyber-vulnerabilityIncreasingrelianceontechnologyandtheproliferationofdigitaldevicesindailylifewillcreateincreasingrisksrelatedto‘Dataprivacy’,cyberattacks,andconsequencesofsystemfailure.107,108Thekeyfactorforpreventionisriskawarenessandproactiveriskmitigation.NewdigitaltechnologiespresentseriouschallengesforgovernmentsandorganizationsandcybersecuritywillremainapriorityascriticalinfrastructureisincreasinglyconnectedtoonlinesystemsandtechnologicaldependenceontheInternetcontinuestorise(see‘SpreadoftheInternet’).Internationally,countrieswillhavetorespondtoevolvingcyber-threatsandprepareforcyberattacksasaninstrumentofwar,counterintelligence,andpoliticalinterference.109,110,111Onedatabreachcanimpactmultiplenationssharingonlinesystems.112Iftheyareaware,nationalleadersmaytakeappropriatestepstoprotectlarge-scalesystemssuchaselectrical,communications,financial,logistical,andfood-productiongrids.113Theyneedtobeproactive.CommonCriteriaforInformationTechnologySecurityEvaluationortheEUCybersecurityActaretwoexamplesofsuchproactiveventures.107.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)108.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)109.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)110.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)111.Globalrisks2035update.Declineornewrenaissance?(AtlanticCouncil,2019)112.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)113.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)Relatedtrends:Artificialintelligence,Autonomousvehicles,Blockchain,Dataprivacy,InternetofThings,Quantumtechnologies,SpreadoftheInternetSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Questionsaround‘cyberborders’maybepartofthediscussionaroundensuringprotectionfromattacksthereforecountriesandorganizationsalikemustpreparefordevelopmentsincyber-crime.114Asincreasingnumbersofcitizensareconnectedto,andrelianton,onlinenetworks,thepotentialforterroristattackswillgrow,ifthesystemisnotresilientenoughandsufficientlyprotected.115Fordevelopingcountriesinparticular,preparednessforcyber-threatswillneedtoaccompanydigitalizationprogrammesanddevelopmentofconnectedsystems.116Finally,cyber-vulnerabilitydoesnotexistonlyatthelevelofcountriesandorganizations.Lookedatfromaslightlydifferentperspective,thevulnerabilityofindividualsisalsosettoincreasebecauseoftheironlineexposure.Forexample,morepeoplewillgettheirinformationonline,leavingthempotentiallymoreexposedtomisinformation(‘fakenews’),whichcouldbeusedtomanipulateindividualsorevenonalargerscaletoinfluencepublicopinion.117Toeffectivelymitigatetheserisksrelatedtocyber-vulnerability,peoplecannotrelyongovernmentactionalone–societyneedstobethedrivingforce.Societyneedstodemandthatorganizationsmaintainhighlysophisticatedinformationsecuritysystemstofosterconsumertrustandremaincompetitive.118114.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)115.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)116.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)117.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandChoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)118.TheGlobalRisksReport2021(WorldEconomicForum,2021)SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC27,Informationsecurity,cybersecurityandprivacyprotection•ISO/IECPRFTR5895,Cybersecurity–Multi-partycoordinatedvulnerabilitydisclosureandhandling•ISO/IEC29147:2018,Informationtechnology–Securitytechniques–Vulnerabilitydisclosure•ISO/IEC30111:2019,Informationtechnology–Securitytechniques–Vulnerabilityhandlingprocesses݁ISO/TC22/SC32,Electricalandelectroniccomponentsandgeneralsystemaspects•ISO/SAE21434:2021,Roadvehicles–Cybersecurityengineering݁ISO/TC215,Healthinformatics•ISO/AWITS6268-1,Healthinformatics–Cybersecurityframeworkfortelehealthenvironment–Part1:overviewandconcepts•ISO/IEEE11073-40101:2022,Healthinformatics–Deviceinteroperability–Part40101:Foundational–Cybersecurity–ProcessesforvulnerabilityassessmentRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Cybersecurityincars•ISO-Thecybersecurityskillsgap•ISO-Keepingcybersafe•ISO-Cybersecurityinthedriver’sseat•ISO-Smartmanufacturing:newISOguidancetoreducetherisksofcyber-attacksonmachinery•ISO-Howtotackletoday’sITsecurityrisks•ISO-Thequestforcyber-trust•ISO-ArewesafeintheInternetofThings?SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›ThechangingnatureofworkEffectsofautomationReinventingtheworkplaceHistoryhasseenseveralindustrialrevolutionsthathaveeachdramaticallychangedthelabourmarket,asmeansofproductionandlevelsofproductivityhavecontinuallyevolvedwiththeintroductionofnewtechnologies.Today,newtechnologiesareconvergingtomakeforevenfasterprogressandmoredisruptivechangestothenatureofwork.Automationwillchangethekindsofjobsneededinthefuture,whiledigitaltechnologiesandsocietalpreferenceswillchangehowandwherewework.Thus,notonlyisthedefinitionof‘workforce’changing,butthescopeandfocusofwhatahumanresourcedepartmentdoesmaybeshiftingfrombeing‘workforcefocused’to‘humancapitalfocused’.EffectsofautomationTheincreasingautomationofindustryisalreadyaveryobservableandwell-studiedtrend.Withadvancesin‘Artificialintelligence‘,‘Smartmanufacturing’,and‘Robotics‘,theabilityofmachinestoperformtasksmoreeffectivelythanpeopleissteadilyincreasing.Thiswillhaveenormousconsequencesfortheglobalemploymentlandscape,withsomestudiespredictingthat,atthegloballevel,“automationcouldeliminate9%ofexistingjobsandradicallychangeapproximatelyone-thirdinthenext15to20years”.119Whatsetsthisindustrialtransformationapartfromthosethatcamebeforeitisthespeedatwhichitisoccurring.This‘FourthIndustrialRevolution’,asitisoftenknown,ishappeningsorapidlythatcarefulgovernancewillberequiredinordertomaximizeitspotentialbenefits.119.Globaltrends2040.Amorecontestedworld(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2021)Relatedtrends:Additivemanufacturing,Artificialintelligence,Autonomousvehicles,Diversifyinginequalities,Robotics,StagnatinghappinesslevelsSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›Whilemanystudiesfocusonthepotentialjoblossesthatcouldresultfromautomation,itisimportanttokeepinmindthat,atleastinthelongerterm,automationwillalsoresultinsignificantjobcreation.Itwillcreatenewkindsofjobs,removingtheneedforhumanstodounsafe,boring,andrepetitivetasks,whileincreasingproductivityandgivingworkersmoreflexibilityandleisuretimethaninthepast.120,121Thesenewjobswilllikelyrequirehigher-leveltechnicalskillsandmoresocialand/orcreativeskillsthanthejobsthatwilldisappear.122Ofcourse,theabilityofindividualcountriestobenefitfromautomationvariessignificantlydependingonseveralfactors:•Demographics:Countrieswithageingpopulationswilllikelypromotefasteradoptionofautomationtoreplaceandaugmenttheirageingworkforces,especiallyinsectorssuchashealth,agedcare,mining,andagriculture.123,124Automationincountrieswithyoungerpopulationsandagrowingworkforcecould,ontheonehand,havemoredisruptiveeffectsandpotentiallyexertadownwardpressureonwages.Ontheotherhand,120.DigitalEconomyReport2019.Valuecreationandcapture:implicationsfordevelopingcountries(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)121.Digitalmegatrends.Aperspectiveonthecomingdecadeofdigitaldisruption(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)122.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)123.Globaltrends2040.Amorecontestedworld(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2021)124.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)125.Globaltrends2040.Amorecontestedworld(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2021)126.DigitalEconomyReport2019.Valuecreationandcapture:implicationsfordevelopingcountries(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)127.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)thesecountriescouldalsobemoreagileinrespondingtochangesbroughtaboutbyautomation,aslongastheycanprovidetherequirededucationtotrainnewworkers.125•Levelofindustrialization:Thereissomeconcernthatautomationcoulddisadvantagedevelopingcountries,asthesecountriestendtohaveahighnumberofjobsinmanufacturing.What’smore,alotofmanufacturingcouldbe‘re-shored’backtodevelopedcountriesbyusingrobots,whichwoulddecreaseopportunitiesfordevelopingcountriestogrowtheireconomiesthroughexport-ledmanufacturing.126Butadvancedeconomieswillnotbeunchallengedeither–theymayseerevenueshortagesasthenumberofworkerspayingtaxdecreases,andtheymaybemoresusceptibletosocietalupheavalassegmentsoftheirpopulationswhoareusedtoexperiencingasteadygrowthinlivingstandardsbecomemoredisadvantaged.127SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›•Educationsystems:Theskillspresentinacountry’sworkforceplusitsabilitytoprovideaccesstocontinuingeducationwillstronglyinfluencehowwellitcanadapttoincreasedautomation.Incountrieswherewomentendtohavelowereducationlevelsandfewertechnicalskillsthanmen,theirjobsmaybeatgreaterriskfromautomation,andthismayleadtowomenbeingdisproportionatelyexcludedfromtheworkforce.128Thereforepolicymakerswillneedtoensurethatsufficientretrainingandupskillinginitiativesareputinplacetomakethetransitionassmoothaspossible,inparticularforlowandmedium-skilledworkersand(insomecases)women.129RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC184,Automationsystemsandintegration•ISO/TR23087:2018,Automationsystemsandintegration–TheBigPictureofstandards݁ISO/TC232,Educationandlearningservices•ISO29994:2021,Educationandlearningservices–Requirementsfordistancelearning•ISO/AWITR29996,Educationandlearningservices–Distanceanddigitallearningservices(DDLS)–Casestudies݁ISO/TC299,Robotics•ISO/TS15066:2016,Robotsandroboticdevices–collaborativerobotsRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-New(e-)takeoffforaviationindustry•ISO-Fromhigh-techgadgetstothesmartenterprise•ISO-UnearthingthepotentialofautonomousminingwithISO17757•ISO-RobotsandhumanscanworktogetherwithnewISOguidance128.DigitalEconomyReport2019.Valuecreationandcapture:implicationsfordevelopingcountries(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)129.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›ReinventingtheworkplaceWhileautomationischangingthekindofjobsthatdominatetheemploymentlandscape,othernewtechnologiesandsocietalpressuresaretransformingworkplacecultureandhowwework.Digitaltechnologyisallowingmorepeopletoworkremotelyandwithmuchmoreflexibleschedules.ThistrenddidnotbeginwiththeCOVID-19pandemicbuthascertainlybeenacceleratedbyit–thepandemicledtoadramaticincreaseinthenumberofpeopleworkingremotelyandintheuseofvideoconferencingandvirtualmeetings,alongsidealargedecreaseinbusinesstravelandtheuseofphysicalofficespace.130Surveysshowthatthesetrendsalignwiththepreferencesofthegreatmajorityofmillennials(92%wanttoworkremotelyand87%wanttoworkaccordingtotheirownschedule131)andallowpeopletobetterbalancetheirworkandhomelives.However,therearealsopotentialnegatives−someworkersmaysufferincreasedstresslevelsduetobeingcontinuallyconnectedtowork132,whileothersmaybecomedisengagedandlessproductive,astheylosetheirphysicalconnectiontoco-workersandadedicatedworkspace.133Organizationsarethereforefacingthedoublechallengeofinvestinginthenecessarytechnologiestoenableahybridorremoteworkenvironmentinordertoattractandretainthebesttalent,whilealsodevelopingstrategiestocombatincreasedemployeestressorfragmentationanddisengagementoftheirworkforce.130.ThefutureofworkafterCOVID19(McKinseyGlobalInstitute,2021)131.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)132.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)133.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)Relatedtrends:Ageingpopulation,Diversifyinginequalities,SpreadoftheInternetSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SocietyForeword‹›RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC260,Humanresourcemanagement•ISO23326:2022,Humanresourcemanagement–Employeeengagement–Guidelines•ISO30415:2021,Humanresourcemanagement–Diversityandinclusion•ISO/AWITS30436,HumanResourceManagement–DiversityandInclusionMetricsTechnicalSpecification݁ISO/TC260/AHG,Flexibleworkinthegigeconomy݁ISO/TC159/SC1,Generalergonomicsprinciples•ISO10075-1:2017,Ergonomicprinciplesrelatedtomentalworkload–Part1:Generalissuesandconcepts,termsanddefinitions•ISO27501:2019,Thehuman-centredorganization–Guidanceformanagers݁ISO/TC283,Occupationalhealthandsafetymanagement•ISO45003:2021,Occupationalhealthandsafetymanagement–Psychologicalhealthandsafetyatwork–Guidelinesformanagingpsychosocialrisks•ISO/PAS45005:2020,Occupationalhealthandsafetymanagement–GeneralguidelinesforsafeworkingduringtheCOVID-19,pandemic݁ISO/TC292,Securityandresilience•ISO/TS22330:2018,Securityandresilience–Businesscontinuitymanagementsystems–Guidelinesforpeopleaspectsofbusinesscontinuity݁IEC/ISOSMARTRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Mentalhealthmatters•ISO-Thebeautyofdifference•ISO-Varietyisthespiceofsuccess•ISO-Howtobuildaresilientworkforce•ISO-WiseworkplacesintheCOVID-19,era•ISO-NewISOstandardrollsoutpracticaltipsforemployeeengagement•ISO-Buildingsuccessthroughpeople•ISO-NewISOstandardputshumansatthecentreofbusiness•ISO-AbetterdesignedworkplacewithISOstandardsTechnology݁Computing݁Connectivity݁Cyber-physicalsystems݁SmartmanufacturingSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›ArtificialintelligenceExtendedrealityBlockchainEdgecomputingQuantumtechnologiesComputingTheworldisrapidlymovingtowardapost-digitalera,whereleaderswillneedtosettheirsightsbeyondtheirongoingdigitaltransformations.Withdigitalcapabilitiesalonenolongerservingasadifferentiator,future-mindedbusinessleaderswillneedmoreintheirtechnologyarsenalstosucceed.134Innovativetechnologiesarecatalystsforchange,offeringbusinessesextraordinarynewcapabilities.‘Distributedledgertechnology’,‘Artificialintelligence’,‘Extendedreality’and‘Quantumcomputing’(knowncollectivelyasDARQtechnologies)willbethenextsetofemergingtechnologiestosparkprofoundchange,lettingbusinessesreimagineentireindustries.135Infact,individualDARQtechnologiesarealreadymakingadifferenceacrossindustriestoday.Butcollectively,theDARQtechnologieswillalsopowertheinnovationandopportunityuniquelyassociatedwiththecomingpost-digitalera.Asthebusinesslandscapebecomesincreasinglydominatedbydigitalnativesandcompaniesthathaveundergonesuccessfuldigitaltransformations,DARQisthekeythatwillopenunimaginednewpathwaysintothefuture.136134.UnderstandingtheDNAofDARQ(Accenture,2020)135.TechnologyVision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)136.TechnologyVision2019.Thepost-digitaleraisuponus(Accenture,2019)SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›ArtificialintelligenceAItodayincludesawholehostoftechnologiesfromdatasciencetocomputerscience,toelectronicsandsocialdisciplines.137Itisaverybroadfieldwithininformationtechnologythatisenablingthedigitaltransformationofindustryandsocietybycreatingcomputersthathavetheabilitytolearnastheyareprogrammedtoperformtasksnormallyrequiringhumanintelligence.Thisincludesreasoning,problem-solving,understandinglanguage,makingpredictionsorinferences,andperceivingsituationsorenvironments.Essentially,itinvolvescomputersbeingabletoprovidebetter,deeper,andotherwisepracticallyunachievableinsightsinanefficientwaybyleveragingcomputer-learningalgorithms.ThistrendisabouttherapidadoptionofAItechnologieswhoseincreasedcapabilitiesandapplicationshavethepotentialtoreshapealmosteveryindustryandprofessionastheyfundamentallychangethewaysinwhichhumansinteractwithmachines.138Thisshouldbeconsideredamegatrendbecauseofthescaleandgeographicreachofitspotentialeconomicandsocietalimpacts.TheprojectedimpactsofAIaresignificant.Manydifferentprojectionsandestimatesexist,buttoprovideanexampleofthemagnitudeoftheseprojections,UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment’sDigitalEconomyReport139estimatesthatAIhasthepotentialtogenerateUSD13trillionofadditionalglobaleconomicoutputby2030,contributinganadditional1.2%toannualGDPgrowth.TheFutureTodayInstitutepredictsthattheglobalAImarketwillgrowataCAGRof42.2%from2021to2027.140137.StanfordUniversitylaunchestheInstituteforHuman-CenteredArtificialIntelligence(StanfordUniversity,2019)138.DigitalMegatrends.Aperspectiveonthecomingdecadeofdigitaldisruption(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)139.DigitalEconomyReport2019(UNCTAD,2019)140.2021TechTrendsReport.Strategictrendsthatwillinfluencebusiness,government,education,mediaandsocietyinthecomingyear(FutureTodayInstitute,2021)Relatedtrends:5G,Additivemanufacturing,Autonomousvehicles,Blockchain,Dataprivacy,Edgecomputing,Effectsofautomation,Ethicsoftechnology,Extendedreality,InternetofThings,Robotics,Smartcities,SpreadoftheInternet,QuantumtechnologiesSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›AIenablingnextgenerationapplicationsOverthecomingdecades,applicationsofAIhavethepotentialtochangeourlivesforthebetterinmanyways.Somekeyexamplesinclude:•Changingthelabourmarket:WithAI’shugepotentialtoboostproductivityandeconomicgrowth,itwillcertainlyhaveasignificanteffectonthelabourmarket.Intheshortterm,automationdrivenbyAI(e.g.‘Robotics’)couldintroducesomedisruptiontomanycurrentjobs.141Butinthelongerterm,AIpromisestocreateasignificantnumberofnewjobs;jobswhichcanremovetheneedforhumanstodounsafeandrepetitivetasks(see‘Effectsofautomation’).142•Betterhealthcare:AIisalreadytransforminghealthcareinareassuchaspathologyandradiology,byimprovingthespeedandaccuracyofdiagnosingdiseasessuchasbreastcancer.143Infuture,AIwillfacilitatepersonalizedmedicineanddrug141.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)142.DigitalMegatrends.Aperspectiveonthecomingdecadeofdigitaldisruption(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)143.TenTrendsThatWillShapeScienceinthe2020s.Medicinegetstrippy,solartakesover,andhumanity–finally,maybe–goesbacktothemoon(SmithsonianMagazine,2020)144.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)145.TenTrendsThatWillShapeScienceinthe2020s.Medicinegetstrippy,solartakesover,andhumanity—finally,maybe—goesbacktothemoon(SmithsonianMagazine,2020)146.AIinEducation.ChangeattheSpeedofLearning(UNEducational,ScientificandCulturalOrganization,2020)147.DigitalMegatrends.Aperspectiveonthecomingdecadeofdigitaldisruption(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)148.GlobalTrends2020.UnderstandingComplexity(Ipsos,2020)149.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)150.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)development(e.g.allowingtailored,drugtreatmentsbasedonanindividual’sgeneticmarkers),helptoeradicateinfectiousdiseasesandeventopredictfuturediseaseoutbreaksthatmayoriginateinanimals.144,145•Personalizededucation:Likeforpersonalizedhealthcare,AIcouldbeusedforpersonalizedlearning–targetinglearningtothegapsinanindividualstudent’sknowledgeandcreatingcustomizedlearningcontent.146•Moreefficientproductionandconsumption:AIiswidelypredictedtoincreaseindustryandworkerproductivity,whichiswhysomanycompaniesareinterestedinadoptingitinsomeformorother,lookingtoachieveacompetitiveadvantage.147McKinseyestimatesthat70%ofcompaniesmayadoptatleastoneAItechnologyby2030.148AIwillalsoincreasinglybeusedtoidentifymoreefficientdeliveryroutesorsupplychains149andtomaximizeefficiencyandsustainabilityinagriculture150,theoutcomeofwhichcouldleadtosignificanteconomicgrowth.SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›•Moreefficientandeffectivegovernance:AIcouldhelpformulateandevaluatetheeffectivenessofgovernmentpoliciesandevenbeusedtoperformlegaltasksthatrequirethesiftingandanalysisofhugeamountsofdata.151ChallengesandrisksAlthoughtheexpectedbenefitsofAIareenormous,goodgovernanceofthetechnologywillbeessentialifwearetorealizethem.ThedevelopmentofappropriatelegalandethicalframeworksforAIwillbecriticaltobuildsocietaltrustandtomitigatethepotentialrisksandchallenges.InternationalStandardswillhaveanimportantroletoplayaspartofsuchframeworkstoensuretheresponsibleadoptionofAI.•Socialimplications:BecausetheabilitytoadoptandbenefitfromAIisdependentonthepresenceofadequatedigitalinfrastructures,relevanttechnicalskillsintheworkforce,andappropriateregulatorysystems,AIhasthepotentialtowidenthetechnologygapbetweenthosethathavethecapabilitiestobenefitfromit,andthosewhodonot.Thisisthecaseintermsofbothcountriesandcompanies(largecorporationsmay151.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)152.2021TechTrendsReport.Strategictrendsthatwillinfluencebusiness,government,education,mediaandsocietyinthecomingyear(FutureTodayInstitute,2021)153.Globalrisks2035update.Declineornewrenaissance?(AtlanticCouncil,2019)154.ProtectingprivacyinanAI-drivenworld(Brookings,2020)155.2021TechTrendsReport.Strategictrendsthatwillinfluencebusiness,government,education,mediaandsocietyinthecomingyear(FutureTodayInstitute,2021)156.TenTrendsThatWillShapeScienceinthe2020s.Medicinegetstrippy,solartakesover,andhumanity—finally,maybe—goesbacktothemoon(SmithsonianMagazine,2020)beabletodeterminewhohasaccesstoAIanditsbenefits).152Thosewithaccesstothetechnologycouldpotentiallyuseitformaliciouspurposes,forexample,bycreatingdeepfakes(usingAItoaltervideosofpeople)andtailored,onlinecommunications(asortof‘personalizedpropaganda’)toradicalizeormanipulatepeople.153Butevenwithoutmaliciousintentions,justthefactthatAIconsumessomuchdatacreatespotentialprivacyissues–“AsAIevolves,itmagnifiestheabilitytousepersonalinformationinwaysthatcanintrudeonprivacyinterestsbyraisinganalysisofpersonalinformationtonewlevelsofpowerandspeed”.154Indeed,AIisadvancingsorapidlythatitcouldevenonedayevokedifficultquestionsaboutwhatitmeanstobe‘human’.Forexample,AIislearningtodothingsthatevenhumansoftenfinddifficult–readinghumanexpressions,interpretingtheemotionsbehindthem,andanalyzingaperson’slevelofemotionalengagement.ResearchersareevenworkingonteachingAItoconvincinglyexhibithumanemotions.155,156SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›•Legalandethicalimplications:AdvancedAIthatcanmakeautonomousdecisionscouldbeappliedtomedicaldiagnoses,legaljudgementsorevenusedinwarfare.ThiscouldbeproblematicbecauseoftheriskofbiasinAI–ifgivenincorrectorskeweddata,thiscouldleadtoalgorithmicdiscriminationbeingdeployedonalargescale(e.g.somefacialanalysisAIhasbeenshowntobelessaccurateatidentifyingminoritiesandwomen,becausethedataitwastrainedonwasnotrepresentative).157,158AIhasthepotentialtoreducetheimpactofhumanbiases,butonlyifhumanscanidentifyandadequatelyaddressbiasinAI.157.TheGlobalRisksReport2021(WorldEconomicForum,2021)158.WhatdowedoaboutthebiasesinAI(HarvardBusinessReview,2019)WhatisonthehorizonforAI?(afewexamplesofmany…)•Edgecomputing:Thisisasystemofmovingcomputationnearertothesourcesofdataorthe‘Edge’.MovingAIworkloadstotheEdge(AIprocessinganddecisionmakingisperformednearertothesourceofthedatageneration,ratherthanintheCloud)tomakeitfasterandsafer.•Systemonachip:DevelopmentofadvancedchipswithacomplexseriesofcomponentsthataredesignedtoworkonAIprojectsanddeliverfasterandmoresecureprocessing.•Digitaltwins:TheuseofAItosignificantlyimprove‘digitaltwin’technology(virtualrepresentationsofreal-worldenvironmentsorproducts).•AItodetectAI:NewmeasurestoregulatecreationanddetectionofdeepfakeswillbecomplementedbyAIsystemsdesignedtoidentifydeepfakes,whetherthesecounterfeitsaretextorimagery.•EmotionAI:Softwarethatcanreadhumanvocalandfacialexpressions,understandhumanemotionsandthecognitivestatesunderlyingthem.Useswillincludetelehealth,onlinelearning,andvirtualmeetings/events.SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC42,Artificialintelligence•ISO/IECTR24027:2021,Informationtechnology–Artificialintelligence(AI)–BiasinAIsystemsandAIaideddecisionmaking•ISO/IECTR24028:2020,Informationtechnology–Artificialintelligence–overviewoftrustworthinessinartificialintelligence•ISO/IECTR24030:2021,Informationtechnology–Artificialintelligence(AI)–Usecases݁ISO/TC215,Healthinformatics•ISO/TR24291:2021,Healthinformatics–Applicationsofmachinelearningtechnologiesinimagingandothermedicalapplications݁ISO/PC317,Consumerprotection:privacybydesignforconsumergoodsandservices•ISO/DIS31700-1,Consumerprotection–Privacybydesignforconsumergoodsandservices–Part1:HighlevelrequirementsRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Tech’sbiggrowthspurt•ISO-EnablinganAI-readyculture•ISO-TowardsatrustworthyAI•ISO-EmbracingtheageofartificialintelligenceinthelatestISOfocus•ISO-Embracingthepoweroftechnology•ISO-HowtounlocktheAIpromise•ISO-It’sallabouttrust•ISO-Toethicizeornottoethicize•ISO-ThenewfrontierforartificialintelligenceSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›ExtendedrealityExtendedreality(XR)referstoenvironmentsthatcombinetherealandthevirtual,throughtheuseofcomputertechnologyandwearabledevices.XRtechnologiesconsistofvirtual,augmentedandmixedreality(respectivelyVR,ARandMR).159EachofVR,AR,andMRdefinesaspecifictechnologytoreachXR,includingtheMetaverse.VRisfullydigitalandimmersive,ARcandigitallyenhanceourviewoftherealworldandmorerecently,MRcancreateahybridrealitywherevirtualandrealworldscoexist.XRtechnologiesaretransformingthewaythatpeopleinteract,liveandworkbyofferingaccesstoanewmodeofsocialinteractionswithinthedigitalspace.160,161TheendgameisthefulldevelopmentoftheMetaverse,anonlinedigitalworldwherepeoplecaninteractwitheachotherandwiththecomputerizedenvironmenttodoavarietyofactivitiesasanextensionofreality.PartoftheemergingDARQtechnologies,XRisabuildingblockinmanycompanies’innovationstrategies,withthepowertosignificantlytransformindustries.162WiththecombinedglobalspendinginARandVRexpectedtoreachUSD160billionby2023163,andrepercussioninbothleisureandbusinesssectors,thisisatrendwithrapidlyincreasingsignificance.159.AReviewofExtendedReality(XR)TechnologiesforManufacturingTraining(Technologies,2020)160.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)161.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)162.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)163.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)Relatedtrends:5G,Servicesmovingonline,SpreadoftheInternet,TheexperienceeconomySocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›Theexperienceeconomy:fromownershiptousershipinthedigitalspaceARandVRimmersivetechnologieshavebeeninuseforsometimealready(especially,inonlinegames),buttheirapplicationisincreasinglybusiness-focused,helpingthefield’srapidexpansion.EpicGames’UnrealEngineforexample,usedinthepopularFortnitegame,createdanonline,digitalspaceforuserstoexchangeandparticipateinamultiplicityofexperiences.Thisgamingenginecanalsobeusedforbusinesspurposes,witharchitecturalfirmsusingittoshowcasetheirdesignstoclients,orFinnairusingittobuildadigitaltwinofHelsinkiAirportforstafftrainingpurposes,forexample.164TheuptakeofXRtechnologyinbusinesscanbelinkedbacktoothersocietaltrends,suchasthedevelopmentof‘Theexperienceeconomy’.Theexperienceeconomyisslowlyreplacingconsumerism,wherebusinessessellexperiencesratherthanaproduct.Thecustomerisfullyinvolvedinthecustomizationprocess,shiftingitsrolefromownershiptousership.165WithXRtechnologiesbecomingcheaperandmoresophisticated,theopportunitiesforcustomizationareendless,allowingusersto164.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)165.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)166.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)167.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)168.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)immersethemselvesinplacesorsituations,whetheritistoshop,interact,work,ortravel.Inaddition,theCOVID-19pandemicisacceleratingtheneedtomoveeverydayexperiencestothedigitalspaceinordertolimitphysicalinteractions,andtechnologiesarerapidlyevolvingtooffervirtualaccesstoamultiplicityofexperiencesinresponsetomobilityrestrictionsandisolationpoliciessuchasteleworking.166Withsuchtechnologies,customerscantryonoutfitsinthevirtualspaceandseethemselvesfrommultipleangles,ortravelandworkfromthecomfortoftheirarmchairs.XRtechnologiesthusopenthedoortoalternativeapproachestoaddresscurrentsocialneeds,fromwellnesstourism167totrainingopportunitiesandevencriminalrehabilitation,simulatingreallifescenariostoprepareoffendersbeforetheirreintegrationintosociety.168SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›InnovationincommunicationandvisualtechnologiesacceleratingtheuptakeofXRtechnologiesThisexpansioninXRuseisdrivenlargelybyinnovationsincommunicationandvisualtechnologiesthatareimprovingtheuserexperienceandmakingthesetechnologiesmorepopularandaccessibletothegeneralpublic.Keyenablingdevelopmentsincludeportability,highspeedInternetaccess,graphicandsoundqualityaswellasGPSdata,whichincreasesthepotentialreachofthosetechnologies.169WiththeevolutionofwearableXRtechnologiessuchassmart-glassesorcontactlensesthatincludequalitysensors,userscanexperiencetheirsurroundingswithadditionalcomputer-generatedinputsthatappearreal.170Inmanufacturing,forexample,thedevelopmentofsuchsensorsandARglassescanhelpworkerswithefficiencyandsafetybygivinghands-freeaccesstousermanualsandaudioinstructions,helpingthemlocateitems,trackingstockinrealtimeorwarningthewearerofequipmentneedingmaintenanceorshowingdefects.171169.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)170.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)171.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)172.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)173.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)174.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)Themostrecentdevices,suchastheHoloLens2(apairofMRsmart-glassesdevelopedandmanufacturedbyMicrosoft),cannowunderstandthecharacteristicsofitemsintheirfieldofvisionratherthansimplyattestingthattheyexist,whichmeanstheycanidentifyandwarnthewearerofhazardsratherthansimplypointtothepresenceofobjects.172TheextensiveapplicationsofsuchtechnologiesleadexpertstopredictawideincreaseintheuseofVRandARatanannualgrowthrateofover80%overthenextfewyears.173Infact,inthenextfewdecades,electroniccommunicationandinformationsharingusingARandVR,suchaslivestreamorvideos,areexpectedtotakeoverfromtraditionaltextandimages.174SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›RisksTheincreasinguseofcyberspacetoperformeverydayactivitiescouldgivemoreinfluenceandauthoritytonon-traditionalactors,possiblyleadingtothecreationofnewformsofauthoritybeyondtheindividualcountries.175Already,suchgroupscanusesocialmediatoexertsignificantsocietalpressures–oneexampleofthisishowusersofReddit(asocialnewsaggregation,WebcontentratinganddiscussionWebsite),managedtoshakethestockmarketwith‘meme-stocks’andthecoordinatedbuyingofGameStopstocksbyretailinvestorsin2021.176Inapessimisticscenario,expandingthecompetitivespacetothedigitalrealmcouldalsoprovideanewmediumforconflictandwarfare,whichisalreadyseenwiththeriseincyber-terrorism.ThevirtualarenaandXRtechnologiesprovideincreasingopportunitiesformisinformationandpropaganda,aswellasavenuesforcyber-attacksandhybridformsofconflict.177AnotherriskisthatXRtechnologiesmightcomplicatepre-existingissueslinkedwithdigitaltechnologiesandsocialmedia,suchasthoserelatedtotheprotectionofidentityandownership,aswell175.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)176.TheRedditrevolt.GameStopandtheimpactofsocialmediaoninstitutionalinvestors(TheTRADE,2021)177.GlobalStrategictrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)178.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)179.Whenseeingisnolongerbelieving.InsidethePentagon’sraceagainstdeepfakevideos(CNNBusiness,2019)180.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)astheriskofmisinformationandbias.ExamplesoffakenewsanddeepfakevideosusingdeeplearningtechnologieshighlighttherisksofXRinnovationsandtheincreasingdifficultytodistinguishwhatisrealandwhatisdigitallyconstructed.178,179ExtendedrealitiestechnologiessuchasARandVR,andtheconstantevolutionofthedigitalspacetowardstheMetaverseisapromisingfieldthatcanfurtheruserexperienceinbusinessandleisurealike.Additionaltrendingtechnologiessuchastherolloutof‘5G’willfurthersupportthedevelopmentofXRexperiences,byenablingmorepeopletobeconnectedatthesametimetoenjoyaqualityexperiencewithminimallatency.180WithotherDARQtechnologies,itholdsthepowertoradicallymodifyhowwebehaveandinteractandwillbedirectlydependentoninnovationincommunicationandvisualtechnologies,withwhichitsharessimilarrisksthatmustbeaddressed.SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC24,Computergraphics,imageprocessingandenvironmentaldatarepresentation•ISO/IEC14772-1:1997,Informationtechnology–Computergraphicsandimageprocessing–TheVirtualRealityModelingLanguage–Part1:FunctionalspecificationandUTF-8encoding•ISO/IEC14772-2:2004,Informationtechnology–Computergraphicsandimageprocessing–TheVirtualRealityModelingLanguage(VRML)–Part2:Externalauthoringinterface(EAI)•ISO/IEC18038:2020,Informationtechnology–Computergraphics,imageprocessingandenvironmentaldatarepresentation–Sensorrepresentationinmixedandaugmentedreality•ISO/IEC18039:2019,Informationtechnology–Computergraphics,imageprocessingandenvironmentaldatarepresentation–Mixedandaugmentedreality(MAR)referencemodel•ISO/IEC18040:2019,Informationtechnology–Computergraphics,imageprocessingandenvironmentaldatarepresentation–Liveactorandentityrepresentationinmixedandaugmentedreality(MAR)݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC29,Codingofaudio,picture,multimedia,andhypermediainformation•ISO/IEC23000-13:2017,Informationtechnology–Multimediaapplicationformat(MPEG-A)–Part13:AugmentedrealityapplicationformatRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Puttingtherealworldbackintoonlineeducation•ISO-Silentgamechangersofthetechrevolution݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC36,Informationtechnologyforlearning,education,andtraining•ISO/IECTR23842-1:2020,Informationtechnologyforlearning,educationandtraining–Humanfactorguidelinesforvirtualrealitycontent–Part1:ConsiderationswhenusingVRcontent•ISO/IECTR23842-2:2020,Informationtechnologyforlearning,education,andtraining–Humanfactorguidelinesforvirtualrealitycontent–Part2:ConsiderationswhenmakingVRcontent•ISO/IECTR23843:2020,Informationtechnologyforlearning,education,andtraining–Cataloguemodelforvirtual,augmentedandmixedrealitycontentSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›BlockchainBlockchaintechnologyisaformofdistributedledgertechnology(DLT),whichprovidesunprecedentedpotentialforremovingintermediariesbyallowingparticipatingpartiestoexchangenotonlyinformationbutalsovalue(money,contracts,propertyrights)withoutnecessitatingtrustinspecific,pre-determinedintermediariessuchasbanksorservers.181,182,183ThisisbecauseDLTenablestransactiondatatobevalidatedwithinasystemwhereincontrolisdistributedamongmultiple,independentparticipantsandstoredinamannerthatistamper-evidentandimmutablebydesign.Byensuringsystem-wideagreementaboutthestateoftheledger,DLTcanbeusedtopromoteprivacy,safety,transparency,andintegrityofthetransactionprocess.184,185Distributedledgersopenupmanynewpossibilities;forexample,formonitoringthesupplychainormanagingdigitalrights.DLTisthereforeregardedasacentralenablerfordigital,self-executingcontracts,so-calledsmartcontracts.186Manyindustryleadershavealreadyachievedsignificantbusinessbenefits,includinggreatertransparency,enhancedsecurity,improvedtraceability,increasedefficiency,fastertransactions,andreducedcostsbyDLTs.187Financialservicesandbankingarethemost181.DigitalEconomyReport2019.ValueCreationandCapture:ImplicationsforDevelopingCountries(UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)182.DigitalMegatrends.Aperspectiveonthecomingdecadeofdigitaldisruption(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)183.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)184.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)185.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)186.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)187.Topfiveblockchainbenefitstransformingyourindustry(IBM,2018)Relatedtrends:Artificialintelligence,Cyber-vulnerability,Dataprivacy,EdgecomputingSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›frequentlytargetedsectorsforDLTserviceproviders.Capitalmarketsareclearlydominating,followedbyinsurance,andtradefinance.188ResearchfromGartnersaysthat300millionblockchaintransactionswereprocessedthroughtheendof2017andassetsworthmorethanUSD270billionwerebeingmanagedusingDLT.189,190Blockchainisbestknownasthetechnologybehindcryptocurrencies(see‘Newbusinessmodels’)191,192,butisincreasinglyknownforitsrolefacilitatingthetradingofnon-fungibletokens(NFTs).Whilecryptocurrencies(likephysicalmoney)are‘fungible’,meaningtheyareequalinvalueandcanbetradedorexchangedforoneanother(onedollarisalwaysworthanotherdollar;oneBitcoinisalwaysequaltoanotherBitcoin),NFTseachhavetheirowndigitalsignaturethatmakesitimpossibleforNFTstobeexchanged,asnotwoareequal(hence,non-fungible).193NFTsaredigitalassetswithprogrammedscarcity,andassuchareidealtorepresentownershipofuniquevirtualassetsanddigitalidentitiesinWeb3.0andtheMetaverse.194188.Globalblockchainbenchmarkingstudy(UniversityofCambridge,2017)189.WillBlockchainDisruptFinancialServices(Gartner,2017)190.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)191.DigitalEconomyReport2019.ValueCreationandCapture:ImplicationsforDevelopingCountries(UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)192.UnderstandingtheDNAofDARQ(Accenture,2019)193.WhatIsAnNFT?Non-FungibleTokensExplained(Forbes,2022)194.SignificanceofNFTsinWeb3.0andtheMetaverse(Selfkey,2022)195.Globalblockchainbenchmarkingstudy(UniversityofCambridge,2017)196.BlockchainOpensUpKenya’s$20BillionInformalEconomy(Bloomberg,2018)Butblockchaincanbeusedforamuchwidervarietyofapplicationsbeyondcryptocurrencyandthefinancialservicesandbankingsectors.Althoughmuchfocusisstillputonmonetaryuses,thereisanincreasinginterestinnon-monetaryusesandapplications,e.g.digitalidentity,healthcare,supplychain,andenergy.195Forexample:•InWestAfricaandKenya,blockchainhasenabledtheefficientverificationofpropertyrecordsandtransactions,andexpandedaccesstocreditinsomepreviouslyinformalsectorsoftheeconomy.196•TheLondon-basedstart-upResonanceusesblockchaintoautomatethetransferofproductinformationbetweenbrands,manufacturers,andretailers.AccordingtoResonance,over30%ofproductdatainproductcataloguesiswrong,witheacherrorcostinganaverageofUSD60tofix.Theinnovativetechnologyensuresthatonlytrustworthyinformationisforwardedandisdonesoanonymously.TherecipientsfirstcheckthedatasheetsSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›theyreceivebeforeintegratinginformationintotheirinternalsystems–suchasformaterialrequirementsplanning.197•InSwitzerlandStreamrhasdevelopedananti-theftstickerthatprotectsvaluablegoodswithoutrevealingtheirlocation.Thestickerisfittedwithanarrayofsensorsthatidentifyissuessuchaslocation,acceleration,andtemperature.ThedatacollectedinthiswayismanagedbyStreamr’sblockchainnetworkandbasedonsmartcontracts.Thestickerscanbeusedinthetransportofgoods,forexample.Customerswouldonlyfindoutwheretheyarecurrentlylocatediftheforwarderviolatesthepreviouslyagreedtermsandconditionsoftransportation.198•InAustraliaPowerLedgerhasdevelopedablockchain-basedplatformthatenablesuserstoinvestinmajor,renewable-energyprojects.Thisallowsuserswhowanttoinvestintheexpansionofrenewableenergytobuysmallstakesinprojectsandacceleratetheirgrowth.Thefirstoffersarepartsofacommercialsolarparkandagrid-connectedbatterystorageprojectinAustralia,whichwillbeofferedviacryptocurrenciesintheblockchain.199197.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)198.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)199.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)200.Isyourhoneyfakingit?(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2018)201.Forecast:BlockchainBusinessValue,Worldwide,2017-2030(Gartner,2017)202.WorldTradeReport2018.Thefutureofworldtrade:HowDigitalTechnologiesareTransformingGlobalCommerce(WorldtradeOrganisation,2018)203.PatentAnalyticsReportonBlockchainInnovation(IPAustralia,2018)•AndCSIROhasexploredusingblockchaintoverifyfoodprovenance,soconsumerscanknowexactlywheretheirfoodcamefromandwhathashappenedtoitateachstepofthechain.200AccordingtoGartner’svalueforecastfortheblockchainbusiness201,afterthefirstphaseofafewhigh-profilesuccessesin2018-2021,therewillbelarger,focusedinvestmentsandmanymoresuccessfulmodelsin2022-2026.Andtheseareexpectedtoexplodein2027-2030,reachingmorethanUSD3trillionglobally.202In2018,Chinaaloneaccountedfornearly50%ofallpatentapplicationsfortechnologyfamiliesrelatingtoblockchains,and,togetherwiththeUnitedStates,representsmorethan75%ofallsuchpatentapplications.203SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC307,Blockchainanddistributedledgertechnologies•ISO/DTR3242,Blockchainanddistributedledgertechnologies–Usecases•ISO23257:2022,Blockchainanddistributedledgertechnologies–Referencearchitecture•ISO/TS23635:2022,Blockchainanddistributedledgertechnologies–Guidelinesforgovernance݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC41,Internetofthingsanddigitaltwin•ISO/IECTR30176:2021,InternetofThings(IoT)–IntegrationofIoTandDLT/blockchain:Usecases݁ISO/TC68/SC2,FinancialServices,security•ISO/AWITR24374,Informationtechnology–Securitytechniques–DLTandBlockchainforFinancialServicesRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Gettingbigonblockchain•ISO-Blockchaintechnologysettogrowfurtherwithinternationalstandardsinpipeline•ISO-Blockchain’stechnologyoftrustSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›EdgecomputingCloudtechnologyallowsuserstoaccessscalabletechnologyservicesimmediatelyviatheInternet’sexistingnetwork,promotinglowercostsforinfrastructureandinventory,reducingoverheads,andcreatingleapsincomputingpowerandspeed,datastorage,andbandwidth.204However,ithasonemajorproblem–thelatency(timelagorcommunicationdelayoverthenetwork)thatresultsfromthephysicaldistancebetweenusersandthedatacentreshostingcloud-basedservices.ThisproblemcanbeovercomeusingEdgecomputing;thisisadifferenttechnologyfromcloudcomputinganditsrelevanceissettoincreaseasthe‘InternetofThings’becomesubiquitousandthesheeramountofdatathatneedstobemovedandprocessedincreasesexponentially.205Thisisbecauseedgecomputingallowsuserstoovercomethelatencyissuebyperformingcomputationsnearoratthesourceofdata–dataisprocesseddirectlyon-siteusingdedicatedhardware.Edgethusprovidesanimportantadvantagewhenprocessingtime-sensitivedata,orwhendataprocessingisneededinaremotelocationwherethereislimitedconnectivity.Infuture,edgecomputingwillbeimportantforhealthcare,automotiveandmanufacturingapplications,becauseoftheincreasedspeedandsecurityofprocessingdatadirectlyondevices(asopposedtosendingitintotheCloud).206,207Asidefromreducinglatency,edgecomputinghasseveralotheradvantages,suchassavingbandwidthandnetworkcosts,andenhancingsecurityandprivacy.208Microsoft,forexample,204.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)205.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)206.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)207.2021TechTrendsReport(FutureTodayInstitute,2021)208.3Advantages(And1Disadvantage)ofEdgeComputing(Forbes,2020)Relatedtrends:Artificialintelligence,Blockchain,InternetofThings,SpreadoftheInternetSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›claimsthatedgecomputingenablesmoreindustriestosafelyusethecloudandstillmeettheircompliancerequirements.209McKinseyfindsthattheindustrieswiththemostedgecomputingusecasesaretravel,transportation,andlogistics;energy;retail;healthcare;andutilities.210Herearejustafewexamplesofapplicationsofedgecomputing:•‘Autonomousvehicles’cangatherthedataproducedbyvehiclesensorsandcameras,processit,analyzeitandmakedecisionsinjustafewmillisecondstokeepvehiclesandpedestrianssafe.•Intelligenttransportationsystemsenablepassengerinformationsystems,vehiclemonitoringandtrackingsystems,intelligentsurveillanceoftransportationvehiclesandstations,intelligenttrafficmanagementsystemsandmore.Fleetmanagementallowsorganizationstointelligentlymanagetheirvehiclefleetswithavarietyofrichinformation.•Remotemonitoringofoilandgasassetscanbedeployedinoilandgasfieldswhereprocessconditions(suchasextremetemperaturevariations)canbeeffectivelyandsafelymonitoredandmanagedoffsite.211209.EdgeComputing.Whatitisandhowit’sagame-changer(CMSWIRE,2018)210.Newdemand,newmarkets:Whatedgecomputingmeansforhardwarecompanies(McKinsey,2018)211.ExamplesofEdgeComputing(Premio,2021)212.Newdemand,newmarkets:Whatedgecomputingmeansforhardwarecompanies(McKinsey,2018)213.EdgeComputingMarketGrowth&Trends(GrandViewResearch,2021)•Patientconditionscanbetrackedinrealtimeandtreatmentcanbeimprovedthroughbetterpatienttreatmentcomplianceandearlyidentificationofhealthcomplications.212AccordingtoareportbyGrandViewResearch,theglobaledgecomputingmarketsizeisanticipatedtoreachUSD61.14billionby2028,exhibitingataCAGRof38.4%overtheforecastperiod.213SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC38,Cloudcomputinganddistributedplatforms•ISO/IEC19944-1:2020,Cloudcomputinganddistributedplatforms–Dataflow,datacategoriesanddatause–Part1:Fundamentals•ISO/IEC22624:2020,Informationtechnology–Cloudcomputing–Taxonomybaseddatahandlingforcloudservices•ISO/IECTS23167:2020,Informationtechnology–Cloudcomputing–Commontechnologiesandtechniques•ISO/IECTR23188:2020,Informationtechnology–Cloudcomputing–Edgecomputinglandscape݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC41,Internetofthingsanddigitaltwin•ISO/IECTR30164:2020,Internetofthings(IoT)–EdgecomputingRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Underneaththecloud•ISO-InthecloudSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›QuantumtechnologiesQuantumtechnologiesrelyontheprinciplesofquantumphysicsandcoverabroadrangeofappliedareaslikequantumcommunication,quantumcomputing,quantumcryptography,quantumimaging,quantummetrology,quantumsensors,andquantumsimulation.Quantumcomputing,inparticular,couldbeagamechangerandrevolutionizethewayweperformcalculations.214Quantumcomputersarethenextgenerationofcomputers,whichoperatebasedonthelawsofquantummechanicsandaremadeupofquantumcircuits.Thefundamentalbuilding-blockofthequantumcomputeristhequantumbitor‘qubit’,thequantumanalogueofthebinarydigitorclassicalcomputingbit.Thequbitcanexistintwostates(analogoustothe‘1’and‘0’oftheclassicalbit)aswellasasuperpositionstate(whereitisboth‘1’and‘0’atthesametime).Becausequbitscanexistinmultiplestatesatthesametime,thequantumcomputerhasthepotentialtobeahundredmilliontimesfasterthanatraditionalcomputer.Withitshelp,databasescanbesearchedfaster,complexsystemssuchasmolecular-levelbehaviourcanbemodelledandsimulatedtomakebettermedicinesandtoday’sencryptiontechnologiescanbestrengthenedorcracked.215,216Inthefuture,itwillbepossibletobookandobtainquantumcomputingpowerviatheCloudfromproviderssuchasAmazonandIBM,triggeringtheeraofhypercomputation.217214.Futuretechnologyforprosperity.HorizonscanningbyEurope’stechnologyleaders(EuropeanCommission,2019)215.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)216.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)217.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)Relatedtrends:Artificialintelligence,Autonomousvehicles,Cyber-vulnerability,Servicesmovingonline,SpreadoftheInternetSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›EventhoughquantumcouldbeconsideredthemostnascentDARQtechnology,investmenthasbeengrowingrapidlyandthisinvestmentishappeningatmultiplelevels,e.g.fromcompaniesthroughtosupranationalinstitutionsandcountries.Forexample,Chinasetuptheworld’sfirstquantumcryptographicnetwork(JinanProject)in2017.218Meanwhile,theEuropeanUnionlaunchedaquantumflagshipinitiativein2018coveringquantumcommunication,quantumsimulation,quantumcomputing,quantummetrology,andsensingaswellasthebasicsciencebehindquantumtechnologies.WithabudgetofatleastEUR1billionovertenyears,thelong-termvisionoftheflagshipinitiativeistodevelopaquantumWebinEurope,wherequantumcomputers,simulatorsandsensorsareinterconnectedviaquantumcommunicationnetworks.219Intermsofprivatesectoradvancements,majorplayerslikeGoogle,Alibaba,IBM,BaiduandHewlettPackardareallbusydoingtheirownresearch.220In2021,IBMQuantumunveiledtheEaglechip,delivering127qubitsonasingleIBMquantumprocessorforthefirsttimewithbreakthroughpackagingtechnology.Eaglebrokethe100‑qubitprocessorbarrierandisleadingquantumcomputersintoanewera.IBManticipatesthat,withEagle,userswillbeabletoexplore218.Chinasettolaunchan‘unhackable’internetcommunication(BBC,2017)219.Futuretechnologyforprosperity.HorizonscanningbyEurope’stechnologyleaders(EuropeanCommission,2019)220.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)221.IBMUnveilsBreakthrough127-QubitQuantumProcessor(IBM,2021)222.Quantumcomputers.Thenextsupercomputers,butnotthenextlaptops(Deloitte,2018)unchartedcomputationalterritory–andexperienceakeymilestoneonthepathtowardspracticalquantumcomputation.221Despitetheexcitementandinvestment,however,quantumtechnologiesareintheirveryearlystages,anditwillbealongtimebeforetheytakeoverthemarket.Forexample,thequantumcomputermarketofthefutureisonlypredictedtogrowtoaboutthesizeoftoday’ssupercomputermarket,wortharoundUSD50billion(ascomparedtotoday’smarketforclassicalcomputingdevices,whichwasalreadyworthoverUSD1trillionin2019)and,evenby2030,noneofthesmartphones,tabletsandcomputersinusewillbequantumpowered.222SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword‹›RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/IECJTC1/WG14,Quantumcomputing•ISO/IECCD4879,Informationtechnology–Quantumcomputing–Terminologyandvocabulary݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC27,Informationsecurity,cybersecurityandprivacyprotection•ISO/IECDIS23837-1.2,Informationtechnologysecuritytechniques–Securityrequirements,testandevaluationmethodsforquantumkeydistribution–Part1:Requirements•ISO/IECCD23837-2.2,Informationtechnologysecuritytechniques–Securityrequirements,testandevaluationmethodsforquantumkeydistribution–Part2:EvaluationandtestingmethodsSocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?ConnectivitySpreadoftheInternet5GServicesmovingonlineConnectivityactsasoneofthedriverstowardsamorepluralisticworld,deepeningconnectionsbetweenbusinesses,services,andcommunitiesacrosstheglobe.Mobile,orwireless,technologies(mobilephones,tablets,andotherwirelessdevices)havebecomebasiccommunicationtoolsofeverydaylife.Theseenablebillionsofpeoplearoundtheworldtostayconnected.Formanyworldwide,mobileistheprimary–andsometimestheonly–channelforaccessingtheInternetandthebenefitsitbrings.223ThenumberofconnecteddevicesontheInternetisprojectedtoreach50billionanytimefrom2025onwards.224Consumerdemandsareshapingthedevelopmentofmobilebroadbandservices.Anticipatedincreasesintraffic(estimatedtogrowbetween10and100timesintheperiodfrom2020to2030),growthinthenumberofdevicesandservices,aswellasdemandforenhancedaffordabilityanduserexperience,willrequireinnovativesolutions.SpreadoftheInternetThespreadoftheInternetinfluencesalmostallcurrentandfuturetrends,withrepercussionsacrossallsectors,connectingsystemsandpeopleatanexponentialrateandfacilitatingthedigitalizationofbusinessesandeverydayservices(see‘Servicesmovingonline’).Indeed,“someestimatesindicatethattheInternet’sinfluenceoverthenext15yearswillexceedthe223.5G.Humanexposuretoelectromagneticfields(EMF)andhealth(InternationalTelecommunicationUnit,2019)224.5G.Fifthgenerationofmobiletechnologies(InternationalTelecommunicationUnit,2019)Relatedtrends:5G,Artificialintelligence,Customizedproducts,Cyber-vulnerability,Diversifyinginequalities,Edgecomputing,Extendedreality,InternetofThings,Newbusinessmodels,Quantumtechnologies,Reinventingtheworkplace,Riseofthemiddleclass,Servicesmovingonline,Smartcities,Theexperienceeconomy,YounggenerationinfluencesTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?impactsoftheindustrialrevolutionoverthecourseof50years.”225Asmorepeoplegoonline,informationcanbesharedfasterandmorewidely,increasingcooperationandefficiencyatalllevels,fromconnectingbusinesses,consumers,ideas,andtechnologiestocoordinatingglobalvaluechains.226AlthoughInternetconnectivityiseverywhereinboththepublicandprivatesphere,thelargestgrowthisintheuseof‘InternetofThings’connectionsintheindustrysector,withconnectedindustriesexpectedtoaccountformorethan50%ofglobalIoTconnectionsby2025.227ThespreadoftheInternetandincreasinglyintegratedonlinesystemsmakecybersecurityimprovementsanddigitalinfrastructureimprovementkeyregulationpriorities.228WithincreasingInternetconnectivitycomesincreasing‘Cyber-vulnerability’.EffectivecybersecuritywillthereforebevitalifsocietyistobenefitfromalltheInternethastooffer,withoutexposuretothreatsfrommalicious(stateandnon-state)actorswhocanusecyberspaceasabattlearena,withimpactsrangingfromoutagesof225.GlobaltrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)226.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)227.DigitalEconomyReport2019.ValueCreationandCapture:ImplicationsforDevelopingCountries(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)228.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)229.DigitalEconomyReport2019.ValueCreationandCapture:ImplicationsforDevelopingCountries(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)230.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)231.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)criticalinfrastructure,tobreachesofindustrialorpersonaldata,andelectionmanipulation.Meanwhile,improvingdigitalinfrastructureswillbekeytodealingwiththemajorchallengeofunequalaccesstotheInternet.Accessalreadyvariesgreatlybothwithinandbetweencountriesand,inleastdevelopedcountries,only20%ofpeopleusetheInternetlargelyduetoinadequateinfrastructure,makingitslowandexpensive.229Moregenerallyworldwide,digitaldividesexistbetweenruralandurbanareas,betweengenders,and‘Agegroups’.BecauseInternetaccessvariabilitycanreinforcepre-existinginequalities,connectivitydifferencesareonefactorthatwillcontributetodefiningtheinequalitiesoftomorrow(see‘Diversifyinginequalities’).Takingactiontoaddresssuchconnectivitydifferenceswillensuremorecountriescanaccessglobalmarketsandmorepeoplecanconnect−andbenefitfromtechnologicalinnovation.Accountingforcurrentefforts,optimisticscenariossuggestthatglobalInternetpenetrationcouldreach90%by2030,with75%oftheworld’spopulationhavingmobileconnectivity,and60%havingbroadbandaccess.230,231TechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?BecausetheInternethasthepowertospreadfalse,misleading,orharmfulinformationjustaseasilyasitprovidestruthandknowledge,anotherchallengeforregulatorsrevolvesaroundInternetcensorshipandsafety.WhiletherearelegitimatereasonstocensorharmfulInternetcontent,accesscanalsobeusedasameansofpoliticalcontrol.StatescanlimitorcontrolplatformsforInternetaccess,forpropagandapurposes,andtorestrictaccesstoinformation.Todate,over23%ofcountriesstillbanorcensornews,and,insomecases,shutdownaccesstocertainsites,effectivelyreducingtheircitizens’accesstodigitalinformationandresources.232Nevertheless,theInternetremainsavaluabletoolforcitizenstosearchformoresourcesofinformationbeyondstate-controlledmedia.RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/IECJTC1,Informationtechnology•ISO/IEC29341-8-5:2008,Informationtechnology–UPnPDeviceArchitecture–Part8-5:InternetGatewayDeviceControlProtocol-WirelessLocalAreaNetworkAccessPointDevice232.TheGlobalRisksReport2021(WorldEconomicForum,2021)TechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?5GIntelecommunications,5Gisthefifthgenerationofmobiletechnologiesandanevolutionfromthepreviousgenerationsofmobiletechnologies:2G,3G,and4G.Meanwhile,5Gisexpectedtobefaster,connectingmorepeople,things,data,applications,transportsystemsandcitiesinsmart,networked,communicationenvironments.Itshouldtransportahugeamountofdatamuchfaster,reliablyconnectanextremelylargenumberofdevices,andprocessveryhighvolumesofdatawithminimaldelay.233,234Whereas4Gsystems,forexample,haveopenedaneweraformobileInternet,enablingmanyapp-basedbusinessesusedforservicessuchasm-Learning,m-Healthandmobilemoney,5Gisseenasopeningyetanothernewera,supportingapplicationssuchas:smarthomesandbuildings;smarterandcleanercities;self-drivingcarsandotherintelligenttransportsystems;3Dvideo;workandplayintheCloud;remotemedicalservices;virtualandaugmentedreality(see‘Extendedreality’),and;massivemachine-to-machinecommunicationsforindustryautomationandmanufacturing.The3Gand4Gnetworkscurrentlyfacechallengesinsupportingtheseservices.235,236Althoughthebusinesscasesandscopeofusepresentchallenges,thesenewfunctionalitiesandnewservicesnecessitateanewwayofdeployingadvancedmobileservices,aswellasnewapproachestomaking5Gtechnologiesworktogetherinindustrialsettingsbymachine-to-machinecommunications,the‘InternetofThings‘orwithconnectedvehicles.237233.5G.Fifthgenerationofmobiletechnologies(InternationalTelecommunicationUnit,2019)234.5G.Humanexposuretoelectromagneticfields(EMF)andhealth(InternationalTelecommunicationUnit,2019)235.5G.Fifthgenerationofmobiletechnologies(InternationalTelecommunicationUnit,2019)236.5G.Humanexposuretoelectromagneticfields(EMF)andhealth(InternationalTelecommunicationUnit,2019)237.5G.Fifthgenerationofmobiletechnologies(InternationalTelecommunicationUnit,2019)Relatedtrends:Extendedreality,Servicesmovingonline,Smartcities,SpreadoftheInternetTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?Theadventof5Ghasarrived,andwithitcomesaworldthatisbetterconnectedandmorepowerfulthaneverbefore:5Grolloutsarehappeningworldwide.TheUS,UK,Germany,andSouthKoreaalreadyhave5Ginsomeregions,withmanymorecountriesplanningtofollowsuit.238SouthKorea’sSKTelecomhitonemillion5Gsubscribersinthefirst140daysofservice,surpassingits20114GLTEuptake.239And5Gisexpectedtoaccountfor40-50%ofglobalmobileconnectionsby2034.240In2019,carriersAT&TandVerizonbothlaunchedtheir5GnetworksinmorethanadozenUSsportsstadiums.Theconcentrationofpeople,alongwithanaugmentedrealityexperienceusecase,madethesevenuestheidealplacetotesttheearlyrollouts.Inthestadium,fanscouldconnecttothenetworkandparticipateinARexperiencesthroughtheirsmartphones,suchasdancingwithvirtualNationalFootballLeagueplayers.241238.TheTopCountrieswith5GDeploymentsandTrials(SDxCentral,2019)239.5GMilestone.Korea’sSKTelecomFirsttoPass1MSubscribers(Forbes,2019)240.StudyonSocio-EconomicBenefitsof5GServicesProvidedinmmWaveBands(GSMA,2018)241.NowIsTheTimeToLoadUpOn5GStocks(Forbes,2019)242.5Gwillunlockwholenewapplications.Herearethemostpromising(CNET,2018)243.Evolutionofwirelessnetworkstechnologies,historyandemergingtechnologyof5GwirelessNetwork.Areview(JournalofTelecommunicationsSystem&Management,2018)244.TheMobileEconomy2019(GSMA,2019)Therecord-breakingspeeds,capacityforahighernumberofconnectionsandminimallatencyof5GareenablinganewfrontierintheIoT.Inthehealthcareindustry,technologistsarealreadydeveloping5Gdevicestoenableremotesurgery,whichwouldallowforhighlyspecializedtrainingofthenextgenerationofdoctorsandbringpreviouslyinaccessiblehealthcaretopopulationsworldwide.2425GwirelesstechnologyisexpectedtobecriticalfortheIoTduetoitsgreaterabilitytohandlemassivevolumesofdata:5Gnetworkscanprocessaroundupto1,000timesmoredatathantoday’ssystems.243Inparticular,itoffersthepossibilitytoconnectmanymoredevices(e.g.sensorsandsmartdevices).Itisestimatedthatby2025,theUnitedStates,followedbyEuropeandtheAsia-Pacific,willbeleadersin5Gadoption.InorderfordevelopingcountriestomaximizetheimpactoftheIoT,significantinvestmentsin5Ginfrastructurewillberequired.By2025,theshareof5Gintotalconnectionsisexpectedtoreach59%intheRepublicofKorea,comparedwithonly8%inLatinAmericaand3%insub-SaharanAfrica.244Moreover,thedeploymentof5GmayfurtherTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?increasetheurban-ruraldigitaldivide,assettingup5Gnetworksinruralareaswithlowerdemandwillbecommerciallychallenging.245,246Estimatesput5GascontributinguptoUSD12.3trilliontoglobaleconomicoutputoverthenextdecade.247Rapidlymaturingtechnologiesareexpandingbusinesses’experiencecustomizationcapabilities,makingthebalancebetweencustomizationandconsumerchoiceincreasinglycritical:as5Gnetworksareexpectedtoenablefasterandmoreinterconnectednetworksofpeopleanddevices,theopportunitiesaregrowingquickly.The5Ginfrastructuremarketisexpectedtoriseatacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of71%between2019-2027,accordingtoFortuneBusinessInsights.248,249RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC268/SC2,Sustainablecitiesandcommunities-Sustainablemobilityandtransportation•ISO/CD37184,Smartcommunityinfrastructures–Guidanceonsmarttransportationforprovidingmeshesfor5GcommunicationNOTE:ITUplaysaleadingroleinmanagingtheradiospectrumanddevelopinggloballyapplicablestandardsforIMT-2020,thenameusedinITUforthestandardsof5G245.Settingthescenefor5G.Opportunities&challenges(InternationalTelecommunicationUnit,2018)246.DigitalEconomyReport2019.ValueCreationandCapture:ImplicationsforDevelopingCountries(UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)247.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)248.5GInfrastructureMarketSize,Share&COVID-19ImpactAnalysis,ByCommunicationInfrastructure(FortuneBusinessInsights,2020)249.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)TechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?ServicesmovingonlineThedevelopmentofdigitaltechnologiessuchas‘5G’,‘InternetofThings’,‘Artificialintelligence’,machinelearningandbigdata,isleadingtoanincreasingnumberofservicesmovingonline(wedefineserviceshereastheresultofinteractions/activitiesperformedbetweenasupplierandacustomer/user).Suchservicesincludebusinessactivities(includingbusinesstobusiness),finance,e-commerce,education,healthcare,andtheentertainmentindustrywithe-sports,‘Extendedreality’gamingande-tourism.Whilesuchashifttowardsonlineplatformscanpositivelyincreaseaccessibilityandconnectivity,itcanalsoincreasedigitalinequalitiesandcybersecurityissuesifleftunregulated.Thedigitalizationofserviceshasstrongimplicationforthefutureoftradeandbusinessinteractions:itcanmakeshortersupplychainseconomicallyviable,inadditiontoincreasingthemarketreachofcompanieswithanonlinepresence.250Someanalystssuggestthatthedigitalizationoftheeconomywillsignificantlyincreaseinthenext20years,wheremanyglobalactivitieswillbe“digitallyintermediated,customized,ondemandandgloballydistributed.”251Duringtheperiod2020-2021alone,thepaceofchangeinthistrendwassignificantlyacceleratedduetotheCOVID-19pandemic,whichforcedmanybusinessesandindividualstobothprovideandaccessonlineservicesbecauseofsocialdistancingandmovementrestrictions.Intermsofeducation,thismeanttheimplementationofinnovativeteachingandlearningmethods.Forhealthcare,ascommunitiesfacedlockdownsandisolation,andhospitalswereunderpressuretodealwiththeoutbreak,theavailabilityofvirtualdoctor’sappointmentsandhealthtrackingappsfordiagnosisandmonitoringenabledacertaincontinuityofserviceforthepopulation.Forbotheducationandhealthcare,thecontinued250.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)251.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)Relatedtrends:5G,Extendedreality,Newbusinessmodels,Quantumtechnologies,Riseofthemiddleclass,Smartcities,SpreadoftheInternet,TheexperienceeconomyTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?developmentofonlineservicesandmobileappsisexpectedtoreducethepressureonsocialandhealthcaresystemsaroundtheglobeandincreaseaccessforvulnerablepopulations.252Thisevolutiontowardsonlineservicescanalsoprovidenewbusinessandemploymentopportunities,especiallyfordevelopingnationsandsmallandmediumsizedenterprises(SMEs).253,254Asitstands,theAfricanregionisveryactiveininvestingforthefuture,withcountriesspendingover1%oftheirGDPondigitalinvestments,andyounggenerationsespeciallyembracingchangebylaunchingstart-ups(onlineandapps),including,forexample,mobile,bankingservicesinKenya.Overall,bothpublicandprivateinitiativesfordigitalplatformsareemergingtoofferproductsandservicesonline.255Theeffectofdigitalizingsomesectorswill,ofcourse,alsodisruptthejobmarketnegatively,reducingtheneedforcertainjobs.However,studiessuggestthat“thevastmajorityofjobsofthefuturedonotexistyet”,whichleavesspaceforadaptationtothenewjobmarketneedscreatedbytheonlineservicessector.256252.Tentrendsthatwillshapescienceinthe2020s.Medicinegetstrippy,solartakesover,andhumanity—finally,maybe—goesbacktothemoon(SmithsonianMagazine,2020)253.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)254.Globaltrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)255.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)256.Globaltrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)257.TheGlobalRisksReport2021(WorldEconomicForum,2021)258.DigitalEconomyReport2019.ValueCreationandCapture:ImplicationsforDevelopingCountries(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)Atthesametime,therecentexpansionofdigitalizedhumaninteractionsandonlineservicescanalsoexacerbateorcreatenewinequalities.WhenworkplacesandschoolsmovedtheiroperationsonlineduringtheCOVID-19pandemic,thosethatlackedthedigitalknowledgeandskills,thepracticaltools,ortheavailableinfrastructures(e.g.laptopcomputersandInternetconnectivity–see‘SpreadoftheInternet’)tosuccessfullytransition,wereatriskofbeingexcluded.257Thesedigitalinequalitiesaregrowing,notonlybetween,butalsowithincountries,withageandsocio-economicstatusbeingkeyplayers(see‘Diversifyinginequalities’).Inaddition,thedevelopmentofonlineservicescanbelinkedtopowerconcentrationandmonopolies.Afewdigitalplatformsaregettingmostofthebenefitsfromservicesmovingonline,andhavestrengthenedtheirpositionthankstothepandemic,makingitdifficultfornewproviderstoenterthemarket.258“DigitalpowerconcentrationcouldconfinepoliticalandsocietaldiscoursetoalimitednumberofplatformsthathavethecapabilityoffilteringinformationandfurtherreducethealreadylimitedagencyofTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?individualsandorganizationsoverhowtheirdataareused.”259Thisleadstoanincreaseinregulatorypressurefromgovernmentstoprotectonlineconsumerrightsbytargetinganti-competitivebehaviourandmonopolization,ensuringproviders’responsibilityforaspectssuchasillegalactivitiesontheirplatforms,andtheprotectionofprivacy.RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC312,Excellenceinservice•ISO23592:2021,Serviceexcellence–Principlesandmodel•ISO/TS24082:2021,Serviceexcellence–Designingexcellentservicetoachieveoutstandingcustomerexperiences݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC36,Informationtechnologyforlearning,education,andtraining•ISO/IEC23127-1:2021,Informationtechnology–Learning,education,andtraining–Metadataforfacilitatorsofonlinelearning–Part1:Framework݁ISO/TC68/SC9,Informationexchangeforfinancialservices•ISO/TS23029:2020,Web-service-basedapplicationprogramminginterface(WAPI)infinancialservices݁ISO/TC133,Clothingsizingsystems•ISO18825-1:2016,Clothing–Digitalfittings–Part1:VocabularyandterminologyusedforthevirtualhumanbodyRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-QRtrafficlighttohelpstopCOVID-19•ISO-Newstandardforconsumerwarrantieskeepseveryoneinthesupplychainonthesamepage•ISO-ServicestandardsareontrendinthelatestISOfocus259.TheGlobalRisksReport2021(WorldEconomicForum,2021)TechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?݁ISO/TC154,Processes,dataelementsanddocumentsincommerce,industryandadministration•ISO19626-1:2020,Processes,dataelementsanddocumentsincommerce,industryandadministration–Trustedcommunicationplatformsforelectronicdocuments–Part1:Fundamentals•ISO20415:2019,Trustedmobilee-documentframework–Requirements,functionalityandcriteriaforensuringreliableandsafemobilee-business݁ISO/TC290,Onlinereputation•ISO20488:2018,Onlineconsumerreviews–Principlesandrequirementsfortheircollection,moderationandpublication݁ISO/TC321,TransactionassuranceinE-commerce•ISO/WD32120,GuidelinesonsharingofproductqualityassurancerelatedtraceabilityinformationinE-commercesupplychainsTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?Cyber-physicalsystemsRoboticsAutonomousvehiclesInternetofThingsSmartcitiesCyber-physicalsystemsintegratecomputationalcomponents(informationprocessing)withphysicalprocesses,whichinteractthroughanetwork.Technologicaladvancesinthe‘InternetofThings’,‘Robotics’,and‘Autonomousvehicles’arethefoundationformakingcyber-physicalsystemspossible,andtodaythereareexamplesofsuccessfulcyber-physicalsystemseverywhere…fromdriverlesstrains,tosmartbuildings,tohouseholdappliancesandeverydayitemssuchascleaningrobots,wearablefitnessdevicesorelectricbikes.Cyber-physicalsystemsprovideanopportunitytopositivelyimproveourqualityoflifeinmanydomains,rangingfromtransportation,tohealthcare,farming,manufacturing,smartgrids,andeverydayliving.Akeychallenge,however,istheneedforengineeringinnovationtoworkincoordinationwithinformationtechnologyinnovation,asthephysicalmeetsthedigital.Developingcommonlanguagesandothercommonalitiesinthispluri-disciplinaryfieldwillfacilitatefuturedevelopmentofthesesystems.Inaddition,aswithmanytechnologicaladvances,unintendedconsequencesofintegratingcyber-physicalsystemsarelikelytoemergeinfuture,anditisthereforeimportanttothinkaheadabouttheethicssurroundingthesesystemsandhowfutureregulationcanlimitrisksrelatedtosafety,responsibility,liability,privacyandmore.TechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?RoboticsRoboticstechnologyisdevelopingquicklyandisalreadyabletoreplacehumanlabourforarangeoftasks.Vastimprovementsinthecapabilitiesofrobotsareexpectedtocontinueandthiswillleadtochangesacrossmanyindustries260,261,262:•Healthcarewillbenefitfromtheincreaseduseofrobotsinbasicmedicineanddiagnostics,reducingcostsforindividualsandtheeconomicburdenofpubliclyfundedhealthservices.263•Robotswillcontinuetotakeoverhumanlabourinmanufacturing,displacingworkersasaresult–thepaceoftechnologicaldevelopmentmaycreateextremepressuresoneducationandtrainingsystemstosupporttheadaptationofworkforces(see‘Effectsofautomation’).264,265However,roboticsisalsoexpectedtoleadtonewtypesofwork266,aslargenumbersofroboticstechnicianswillberequiredtomaintainthese‘fleetsofrobots’andthedatageneratedandcollectedbyrobotswillbeimmense,leadingtogrowingdemandfordatascientiststomakeuseofit.267260.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)261.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)262.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)263.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)264.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)265.DigitalEconomyReport2019.ValueCreationandCapture:ImplicationsforDevelopingCountries(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)266.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)267.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)Relatedtrends:Artificialintelligence,Autonomousvehicles,Customizedproducts,Effectsofautomation,Ethicsoftechnology,InternetofThingsTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?•Theagriculturalsectorwillincreasinglyuserobotsformanualtaskssuchasseeding,weeding,andharvesting,withsensorsimprovingintheirabilitytoidentifyripeproduce,harvestplantsanddetectdisease.268•Arangeofmilitaryapplicationsisanticipated,raisingincreasinglycomplexethicalquestions.Ifterroristorganizationsandnon-statearmedgroupshaveaccesstothistechnology,itwillincreasethecomplexityofconflict.269•Theautomotiveandtransportationsectorwillmovetowardsincreasingproductionanduseof‘Autonomousvehicles’,madepossiblebyadvancesinroboticsandotheremergingtechnologies(see‘5G’).270ThecarsharingcompanyUber,forexample,iscurrentlyexpandingitsdriverless-carprogramme.Thismayleadtoareductioninprivatecarownershipanduse.271Asrobotsincreaseinpower,theirapplicationsarelikelytogrow.ComputingforrobotsisnowpossibleintheCloud,increasingtheirprocessingpowerandspeed.272Advancesinsensors,speech-recognitiontechnologyandcomputervisionwillallcontributetomoreadvancedroboticsproducts,includingrobotsthatareabletooperateinuncontrolledsettings–knownas‘open-worldautonomy’.273268.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)269.Globalrisks2035update.Declineornewrenaissance?(AtlanticCouncil,2019)270.DigitalEconomyReport2019.ValueCreationandCapture:ImplicationsforDevelopingCountries(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)271.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)272.20Newtechnologytrendswewillseeinthe2020s(BBCScienceFocusMagazine,2020)273.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)TechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC299,Robotics•ISO/CD5363,Robotics–TestmethodsforExoskeleton-typeWalkingRACARobot•ISO8373:2021,Robotics–Vocabulary•ISO10218-1:2011,Robotsandroboticdevices–Safetyrequirementsforindustrialrobots–Part1:Robots•ISO10218-2:2011,Robotsandroboticdevices–Safetyrequirementsforindustrialrobots–Part2:Robotsystemsandintegration•ISO11593:2022,Robotsforindustrialenvironments–Automaticendeffectorexchangesystems–Vocabulary•ISO13482:2014,Robotsandroboticdevices–Safetyrequirementsforpersonalcarerobots•ISO/TS15066:2016,Robotsandroboticdevices–CollaborativerobotsRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Robotstotherescue!•ISO-RobotsandhumanscanworktogetherwithnewISOguidance•ISO-Enterthefirstcyborg-typerobotTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?AutonomousvehiclesAutonomousvehicletechnologyisnotaone-size-fits-allconcept,astherearedifferentconsiderationsandimplicationsforroad,ship,orrailtransport.Thedegreeofautomationcanvaryaswell,andclassifiedinrangesfromLevel0(fullymanual)toLevel5(driverless).Thefollowingdiscussionexploresautonomousvehiclesasahigh-leveltrendonly,whereautonomousvehiclesareunderstoodasallformsofdriverlesstransportsystems.Autonomousvehiclesarealreadyusedinindustrialsettings,insomepublictransportsystems(e.g.driverlesstrains),andautomationtechnologyisincreasinglyintegratedinourcars(e.g.cruisecontrol,self-parkingtechnologyortrafficjampilot).274,275Whiletheautonomousvehiclemarketisgrowingasawhole,withanexpectedCAGRofover39%from2019to2026,thedeploymentoffullyautomated(driverless)vehiclesonpublicroadsisstillyearsaway.276,277Theimpactofmoreautonomousvehiclesislikelytobedouble-sided.Theymayeliminatetheneedfordriversofvehiclesofallkinds:trucks,taxis,andpublictransportvehicles,representingasignificantlabourforceimpactinthecomingdecades.278Atthesametime,theymaycreateopportunitiesformoreefficienttransportofgoodsandpeopletoregionalareas.279Indeed,asignificant,expectedbenefittosocietyisimprovedpopulationmobilityduetouseofautonomousvehiclesforpublictransport,particularlyinruralareas.280274.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)275.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)276.WhatAretheLevelsofAutomatedDriving?(Aptiv,2020)277.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)278.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)279.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)280.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)Relatedtrends:Artificialintelligence,Cyber-vulnerability,Effectsofautomation,Ethicsoftechnology,Quantumtechnologies,Robotics,Smartcities,UrbanizationTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?Existingdataonuseofautonomousvehiclessuggeststheycanreducebothsafetyincidentsandfuelexpenditure.281Autonomousvehiclesareexpectedtomaketradecorridorssignificantlymoreefficientand,whencombinedwiththeenergyefficiencyofelectricvehicles,increasethecompetitivenessofroadtransportagainstrailforthedeliveryofgoods.282Technologyisalsodevelopingforautonomousvehiclesbeyondtheroad.Futureinnovationscouldincludeautonomouscargoshipsandplanesleadingtomoreefficientsupplychainsininternationaltrade.283281.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)282.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)283.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)TechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC241,Roadtrafficsafetymanagementsystems•ISO/CD39003,RoadTrafficSafety(RTS)–Guidanceonsafetyethicalconsiderationsforautonomousvehicles݁ISO/TC22,Roadvehicles•ISO/TR4804:2020,Roadvehicles–Safetyandcybersecurityforautomateddrivingsystems–Design,verificationandvalidation݁ISO/TC127,Earth-movingmachinery•ISO17757:2019,Earth-movingmachineryandmining–Autonomousandsemi-autonomousmachinesystemsafety݁ISO/TC204,Intelligenttransportsystems•ISO22737:2021,Intelligenttransportsystems–Lowspeedautomateddrivingsystemsforpredefinedroutes݁ISO/TC268,Sustainablecitiesandcommunities•ISO/FDIS37181,Smartcommunityinfrastructures–SmarttransportationbyautonomousvehiclesonpublicroadsRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Lowspeedautomateddrivingsystems•ISO-UnearthingthepotentialofautonomousminingwithISO17757TechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?InternetofThingsTheIoTreferstoasystemofinterconnecteddevicesembeddedwithsoftware,sensors,andothertechnologies(suchasdigitaltwin,cloudcomputing,bigdataand‘Artificialintelligence’),whichallowsthemtoexchangedataovertheInternetforthepurposeofimprovingfunctionalityandmonitoring.IoTsystemsaresoftwareanddata-intensive,aswellasnetworkcentric.Theycanbequitecomplex,rangingfromsimplearchitecturetosystemswhicharemulti-tiered,distributed,and‘Cyber-physicalsystems’.IoTsystemsarekeyenablersof‘smarteverything’,includingsmarthomesandbuildings,‘Smartmanufacturing’,‘Smartcities’,andsmartfarming,butalsowearabletechnologies,medicaldevices,andvehicles.284Currently,therearetwiceasmanydevicesconnectedtotheInternetaspeople,andIoTconnectionsarestillexpectedgrowat17%peryear.285,286Expertspredictthat,by2025,anaverageInternetuserwillbeinteractingwithIoTdevicesnearly4,900timeseachday.287Thisincreaseddeviceconnectivitywillresultinmassiveamountsofdata,creatinggrowingneedsfordatastorage,analyticalcapacity,anddataprotection.Thedatagatheredbythesedevicescancontributetoimprovedstrategiestoreducepovertyinsomecontexts,aswellasincreasedsustainabilityandenvironmentalprotection.However,theIoTcouldalsoposerisks,ifdataarenotsufficientlyprotected,orifitisusedforunethicalpurposes.288284.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)285.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)286.DigitalEconomyReport2019.Valuecreationandcapture:implicationsfordevelopingcountries(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)287.DigitalEconomyReport2019.ValueCreationandCapture:ImplicationsforDevelopingCountries(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2019)288.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)Relatedtrends:Artificialintelligence,Cyber-vulnerability,Dataprivacy,Edgecomputing,Energystorageanddistribution,Robotics,Smartcities,SpreadoftheInternetTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?Therolloutofemergingcommunicationsandnetworkingtechnologiessuchas‘5G’andsatelliteIoTwillincreasethereach,efficiency,andcapacityofIoTdevices,furthergrowingthedemandfortheseproducts.289,290Forexample,improvedIoTtechnologyandincreasedconnectivityarealreadyfosteringthedevelopmentofremotesurgerytechnologies,whichwill“bringpreviouslyinaccessiblehealthcaretoworldwidepopulations.”291289.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)290.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)291.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)TechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC41,Internetofthingsanddigitaltwin•ISO/IEC20924:2021,Informationtechnology–InternetofThings(IoT)–Vocabulary•ISO/IEC21823-1:2019,Internetofthings(IoT)–InteroperabilityforIoTsystems–Part1:Framework•ISO/IEC21823-2:2020,Internetofthings(IoT)–InteroperabilityforIoTsystems–Part2:Transportinteroperability•ISO/IEC21823-3:2021,Internetofthings(IoT)–InteroperabilityforIoTsystems–Part3:Semanticinteroperability•ISO/IEC21823-4:2022,Internetofthings(IoT)–InteroperabilityforIoTsystems–Part4:Syntacticinteroperability•ISO/IEC30141:2018,InternetofThings(IoT)–Referencearchitecture•ISO/IEC30147:2021,Informationtechnology–Internetofthings–MethodologyfortrustworthinessofIoTsystem/service•ISO/IEC30162:2022,InternetofThings(IoT)–CompatibilityrequirementsandmodelfordeviceswithinindustrialIoTsystems•ISO/IEC30165:2021,InternetofThings(IoT)–Real-timeIoTframework݁ISO/IECJTC1/SC27,Informationsecurity,cybersecurityandprivacyprotection•ISO/IEC27001:2013,Informationtechnology–Securitytechniques–Informationsecuritymanagementsystems–Requirements•ISO/IEC27701:2019,Securitytechniques–ExtensiontoISO/IEC27001,andISO/IEC27002,forprivacyinformationmanagement–RequirementsandguidelinesRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-StandardshattrickfortheInternetofThings•ISO-ReferenceframeworkfortheInternetofThings•ISO-ArewesafeintheInternetofThings?•ISO-HowtheInternetofThingswillchangeourlives•ISO-Ontheroadtotransportconnectivity•ISO-ThenextfrontierforbusinessTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?SmartcitiesCitiesarethefutureofhumanorganization,withovertwo-thirdsoftheglobalpopulationexpectedtoliveinurbanareasby2030.292Thisraisessignificantchallenges,includingtheallocationofresourcestogrowingpopulationsandthemanagementoftheirconsumptionandwaste.Smartcitiesarerisingtoaddressthesechallengesbyintegratingsmarttechnologiestoaddresscitizens’needsmoresafely,sustainably,andefficiently,fromgoodsandservicestotransportandlogisticsmanagement.TheWorldEconomicForum293predictsthatthetechnologicaltippingpointforsmartcities–thatis,whentheymovefrombeingnovelentitiestorepresentingthenorm–couldoccurasearlyas2026.‘Smart’canmeandifferentthingstodifferentpeople.InISO,a‘smartcity’isconsideredtobeonewith“effectiveintegrationofphysical,digitalandhumansystemsinthebuiltenvironmenttodeliverasustainable,prosperousandinclusivefutureforitscitizens”(ISO/IEC30182:2017,2.14).Anotherhelpfulwaytounderstanditistolookatsmartashavingthreepillars:digital,physical,andeconomic.Digitallysmartreferstotheeffectivedeploymentofdigitalandcommunicationtechnologiesforcitymanagement.Physicallysmartreferstotheadjustmentandconstructionofsustainableinfrastructuresandprocessesthatenhancethecity’sresilienceandtheresidents’qualityoflife.Finally,economicallysmartreferstotheeffectivecollaborationbetweencitizensandlocalbusinessestoshareassetsandresourcestobuildaresilientcommunity.294Theevolutionofsmartcitiesiscloselylinkedtoinnovationin‘InternetofThings’,‘5G’andDARQtechnologies,‘Distributedledger’,‘Artificialintelligence’,‘Extended292.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)293.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)294.Technologyoutlook2030.Technology&society(DetNorskeVeritas,2021)Relatedtrends:5G,Autonomousvehicles,Energystorageanddistribution,SpreadoftheInternet,UrbanizationTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?reality’,‘Quantumcomputing’,whichareessentialinsupportingthedeploymentofsmartcitiesaroundtheglobe.295Smartcitiescanbothimprovethelivingconditionsofresidentsandsupportmoresustainablelivingarrangements.Theydothisbyintegratingsmartgrids(see‘Energy’),energy-savingconstructionmaterialsandbuildings,efficientdigitalmanagementsystemsforwasteandotherlogisticalneedsandservicestocitizens.296Thisresultsinamoreefficientuseofresourcesandresilient,better-connectedsystems.However,withthisincreasedconnectivityalsobringsrisksrelatedtoprivacyandbigdatasharing.Becauseasmartcitydependsonahighlyinterdependentconnectednetwork,thisincreasestheriskthatasecuritybreach,hackingortechnicalissuesuchasapowercutcouldaffecttheentiresystem,withrepercussionsinallsectors.297,298Thereisalsoaconcernaboutthe‘BigBrother’dilemma–forsmarttechnologytoefficientlyrelayinformationandadaptsystemstoresidents’needs,bigdatamustbecollectedusingthingslikecameras,sensors,andIoTtools.299Tomaintaincitizens’trustinthesmartcityconcept,effectivepoliciesandregulationswillbeneededtoprotectresidents’privacyandpersonalinformation.Standardizationplaysanimportantroletowardsbringingtrustamongstcitizens,thankstotransparencyandopenprocesses,whichiskeyforcitizensacceptanceandconfidence.295.Technologyvision2020.We,thepost-digitalpeople(Accenture,2020)296.AGCStrendcompass(Allianz,2019)297.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)298.EmergingTechnologiesAndSmartCities(Forbes,2021)299.Digitalmegatrends.Aperspectiveonthecomingdecadeofdigitaldisruption(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)TechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC268,Sustainablecitiesandcommunities•ISO37106:2021,Sustainablecitiesandcommunities–Guidanceonestablishingsmartcityoperatingmodelsforsustainablecommunities•ISO37122:2019,Sustainablecitiesandcommunities–Indicatorsforsmartcities•ISO37123:2019,Sustainablecitiesandcommunities–Indicatorsforresilientcities݁ISO/IECJTC1/WG11,Smartcities•ISO/IEC24039,Informationtechnology–Smartcitydigitalplatformreferencearchitecture–Dataandservice•ISO/IEC30182:2017,Smartcityconceptmodel–Guidanceforestablishingamodelfordatainteroperability݁ISO/TC59/SC17,Sustainabilityinbuildingsandcivilengineeringwork•ISO21678:2020,Sustainabilityinbuildingsandcivilengineeringworks–Indicatorsandbenchmarks–Principles,requirementsandguidelines݁ISO/TC205,Buildingenvironmentdesign•ISO17800:2017,Facilitysmartgridinformationmodel݁ISO/TMBG,TechnicalManagementBoard-groups•ISO/TMBG/JSCTF-TF19,ISO,IECandITUJointSmartCitiesTaskForceRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-SustainableCitiesandCommunities•ISO-Howdowebuildsustainablecitiesofthefuture?•ISO-Protectingourprivacyinsmartcities•ISO-Buildingbettercitiesforanet-zerocarbonfuture•ISO-Ridingthebusthesmartway•ISO-Smartcitiestobenefitfromnewinternationalstandardstaskforce•ISO-Thefuturelookssmart•ISO-Designingtomorrow’scitiestoday•ISO-Grenoble:thesustainablecity•ISO-BuildingresilientcitieswithnewInternationalStandard•ISO-ChangingtheworldwithISOstandardsonWorldCitiesDay•ISO-NewInternationalStandardformeasuringtheperformanceofcitiesgoing“smart”•ISO-StandardscooperationiskeytomakingAIandsmartcitiesareality•ISO-Strongercitiesforthefuture:anewsetofInternationalStandardsjustout•ISO-ThecityofthefuturewillbeshapedbystandardsTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?NewgenerationplasticsAdditivemanufacturingSmartmanufacturingreferstomultiple‘newnormals’inthecontextofmanufacturing–thatis,howindustrywillleveragetheapplicationofnewdisruptivetechnologiessuchas‘Artificialintelligence’,‘Edgecomputing’,‘Robotics’,‘Additivemanufacturing’(3Dprinting),‘Geneediting’andthe‘InternetofThings’,tochangethefaceoftraditionalmanufacturing.Smartmanufacturinghasbeendescribedasa“fusionofthedigital,biologicalandphysicalworld”300andrepresentsachangethatissosignificantthatitissometimesreferredtoasthe‘fourthindustrialrevolution’.301Smartmanufacturingcouldrepresentanimportantopportunitytoboostsustainablemanufacturingand,asitsimplementationexpands,itwillbeessentialtodevelopabetterunderstandingofhowitcancontributetosustainabledevelopmentwhileimprovingsystemefficiency.302Below,weexploreoneindustrythatwillhopefullybenefitfromsmartmanufacturingtoincreasesustainability(theplasticsindustry),andonekeyenablerofsmartmanufacturingthatisundergoingrapiddevelopmentandexpansion(additivemanufacturing).300.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)301.Whitepaperonsmartmanufacturing(ISOSmartManufacturingCoordinatingCommittee,2021)302.Sustainableandsmartmanufacturing:anintegratedapproach(Sustainability,2020)SmartmanufacturingTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?NewgenerationplasticsToday’splastics,withapredominantlylinearmaterialflow,unquestionablyfacechallenges,bothregardingCO2-emissionsduetotheirfossil-basis,andtoplasticpollution(unintendedleakageandsubsequentaccumulationofplasticsintheenvironmentoreventhehumanbody).Thequestionis,howwillweensurewehavethematerialsforthefuturewithoutcompoundingtheseproblems?Manycompaniesaredevelopingalternativesbasedonrenewable,biomassmaterials,includinge.g.flax,mushrooms,andshrimpshells.303,304Theformulationofexistingplasticscanalsobechangedtomakethemmoredegradable305and,finally,innovationsinrecyclingtechnologieswillmakemanufacturingthematerialsofthefuturemoresustainable.Asoneofthelargestsectorsinthemanufacturingindustry,innovationsinplasticproductionsystemsthemselvesarealsoakeydriverofchange.Thedatacollectedbymoreefficientsensorsandsmartmachinery(see‘InternetofThings’)canimprovetheconsistencyofproducts,limitingdefects(andultimatelyreducingplasticpollution),reducingenergyconsumptionandcosts,andimprovingcompetitiveness.306,307303.TenTrendsThatWillShapeScienceinthe2020s.Medicinegetstrippy,solartakesover,andhumanity–finally,maybe–goesbacktothemoon(SmithsonianMagazine,2020)304.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)305.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)306.SmartManufacturinginPlasticInjectionMolding(ManufacturingTomorrow,2017)307.SmartManufacturinginPlasticInjectionMolding(ManufacturingTomorrow,2021)Relatedtrends:Additivemanufacturing,SustainableproductionTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC61,Plastics•ISO16620-1:2015,Plastics–Biobasedcontent–Part1:Generalprinciples•ISO17088:2021,Plastics–Organicrecycling–SpecificationsforcompostableplasticsRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Rethinkingthefutureofplastics•ISO-WinningthebattleagainstplasticpollutionwithInternationalStandardsonWorldEnvironmentDay!TechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?AdditivemanufacturingAdditivemanufacturingproducesobjectsthroughaprocessoflayeringtogetherrawmaterials.Thisisdifferenttotraditional(subtractive)manufacturing,whichcreatespartsoutofrawmaterials.308Additivemanufacturingiswidelyknownas‘3Dprinting’,butthisstyleofmanufacturingalsoIncludes‘4Dprinting’,anemergingapproachthatallowsthemanufactureofproductsthatrespondtothingslikeheat,light,andthepassingoftime.309Theuseofadditivemanufacturingisexpectedtoincrease,withmanynewapplicationsforbothcommercialandpersonaluse.Theabilitytoprintproductsforpersonalusewillopenmarketsforblueprintsanddesigns,whileincreasingthecustomizationoptionsavailabletoconsumers(see‘Customizedproducts’).Apotentiallyendlessrangeofproductscouldbemanufacturedusingadditivemethods,includingmachineryparts,consumergoodssuchasshoesandfurnitureandhealthcareproductslikehearingaidsandprosthetics.310,311Ifadditivemanufacturinggrows,wecanexpectanincreasedimpactontrade–perhapsareductioninthetransportofgoods,alongwithanincreaseinthetransportofrawmaterials.Overall,thiswouldbeexpectedtoreduceglobalfreightvolume.312Ofcourse,additivemanufacturinghassomechallenges,suchasensuringcybersecurityandmanagementofintellectualproperty.Companiesandgovernmentswillneedtobeattentivetoemergingissuestoensurethebenefitsofadditivemanufacturingareenjoyedbyall.308.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)309.2021Techtrendsreport.Strategictrendsthatwillinfluencebusiness,government,education,mediaandsocietyinthecomingyear(FutureTodayInstitute,2021)310.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)311.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)312.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)Relatedtrends:Customizedproducts,Changingtradepatterns,Newgenerationplastics,SustainableproductionTechnologyForeword‹›SocietyTechnologyEnvironmentEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC261,Additivemanufacturing•ISO/ASTM52900:2021,Additivemanufacturing–Generalprinciples–Fundamentalsandvocabulary•ISO/ASTMCDTR52918,Additivemanufacturing–Dataformats–Fileformatsupport,ecosystemandevolutions݁ISO/IECJTC1,Informationtechnology•ISO/IECDIS3532-2,Informationtechnology–3DPrintingandscanning–Medicalimage-basedmodelling–Part2:Segmentation•ISO/IEC23510:2021,Informationtechnology–3Dprintingandscanning–FrameworkforanAdditiveManufacturingServicePlatform(AMSP)݁ISO/TC184,Automationsystemsandintegration•ISO/IECTR63306-1:2020,Smartmanufacturingstandardsmap(SM2)–Part1:Framework•ISO/IECTR63306-2:2021,Smartmanufacturingstandardsmap(SM2)–Part2:Catalogue݁ISO/TMBG,TechnicalManagementBoard–groups•ISO/TMBG/SMCC,ISOSmartManufacturingCoordinationCommittee•WhitepaperonSmartManufacturingRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Silentgamechangersofthetechrevolution•ISO-ISOandASTMInternationalunveilframeworkforcreatingglobaladditivemanufacturingstandards•ISO-Manufacturingour3Dfuture•WhitepaperonSmartManufacturingTechnologyForeword‹›Environment݁Energy݁EnvironmentaldegradationEnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordEnergysourcesEnergystorageanddistributionGlobalenergyuseisincreasingdramatically,primarilydrivenbyincreasingdemandforelectricity.Inaddition,energy-relatedCO2emissionsaretoohightomeetinternationalcommitmentstotheclimateagendaby2050.Theonlypathtosuccesswillbethroughtechnologicalinnovationsleadingtoenergysavings,low/zerocarbonenergysources,carboncapture,andgreaterenergyefficiency(see‘Environmentaldegradation’formoreonresourcemanagementandcarbonstorage).Thenumberofpotentialpowersourcesisexpectedtoincreaseoverthenext30years,astechnologicalinnovationsinenergyproductionandstoragemakerenewablesandnewgenerationbatteriescheaperandmoreefficient.Changesinelectricitymarkets,suchasgrowthindevelopingcountriesandregionalizationofenergysystems,willsetthesceneforfutureevolutionsinthesector.Althoughenergytrendsinvolvesignificanttechnologicalandsocietalaspects,theyhavebeenincludedintheenvironmentsectionofthistrendreportbecausetheevolutionoftheenergysectorissointerdependentwiththeglobalclimateagenda2050.Fromgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsreductiontoenergyefficiencyandtheincreaseduseofrenewable-energysourcesforpower,heatorfuel,futureinnovationsandstandardizationworkintheenergysectormusttakeasustainabilitylens.Energyasamegatrendhasamultiplicityoffacets,notallofwhichcanbeincludedinthisreport.Wefocusourdiscussiononenergyissuesincludingthediversificationofenergysources,andinnovationsinaccess,storage,anddistributionofenergy,withastrongfocusonthetransportsectorandelectricitymarketdevelopments.EnergyEnvironment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordEnergysourcesThedemandforenergycontinuestorise,linkedtodemographicandeconomicgrowth,especiallyinthetransport,industry,andconstructionsectors.313Withdevelopingcountries’growingenergyneeds,itisexpectedthatglobalenergydemandwillriseby40-60%by2050314ifwedonotmakeadditionalenergysavings.315Inparallel,theincreasingawareness,pressureandneedtoreduceemissionsandimproveenergysecuritydemonstratetheneedtoreconsiderenergyproductionandusepatternsacrosstheglobe.Already,thediversificationofenergysourceshighlightsprogressinthisarea,withwind,solar,water,nuclearfusion,geothermal,bioenergyandotherspavingthewaytowardslow-carboneconomies.By‘energysources’,weconsiderheretheresourcesortechnicalsystemsfromwhichenergycanbeextractedorrecoveredtobetransportedbyamediumsuchasfuelorelectricity(seeISO/IEC13273,allparts).Althoughbatteriestechnicallyfitthisdefinition,theywillbereviewedintheEnergyStoragesectionofthisreport.313.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)314.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)315.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)Relatedtrends:Naturalresourcescarcity,SustainableproductionEnvironment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordTowardsdecarbonizationWhileprogresshasbeenmadeworldwidetoaddressclimatetargets,theconstantlyincreasingenergyneedsofourglobaleconomymeanthatGHGemissionlevelswillneedtofallbytwo-thirdsby2050toremainontrackwithParisAgreementtargets,highlightingtheurgencyofdecarbonizationandenergy-savingmeasures.316Developmentsinrenewabletechnologiesshowpromise,andrenewablesarethefastestgrowingmeansofenergyproductiongloballywithcountrieslikeChina,theUS,Germany,France,andSpaininvestingheavilyinthesetechnologies.317Byrenewables,wemeanallsourcesofenergythatarenotdepleteduponextraction,becausetheyreplenishataratefasterthanextractioncanoccur.Thisincludessolar,wind,hydro,andgeothermalpowersources.Aseconomiesbecomemorereliantonelectricityasakeyenergycarrier,renewablescould,incombinationwithnuclearenergy,provideoverhalfoftotalelectricitygenerationcapacityby2050.318Inaddition,renewablesarebecomingcompetitivewithfossilfuelsfasterthanexpectedaspricesdrop,whichhasalreadystartedto316.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)317.FutureForesight.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)318.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)319.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)320.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)321.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)322.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)disrupttheglobalenergysector.319Thecostsofproducingsolarenergyinparticularisexpectedtocontinuetofallasthirdgenerationphotovoltaics(designedforhighpowerconversionefficiency,lowcostandefficientuseofmaterial)andconcentratedsolarpower(CSP),usingfocusedsunlighttogenerateheatandenergythroughconventionalsteamturbines,continuetodevelop.320Anotheralternativetofossilfuelthatmayplayasignificantroleinthedecarbonizationprocessisnuclearenergythroughfission.Althoughnuclearenergyproductionisunpopularinsomecountriesduetotheradioactivewasteitcreatesanditsconnectiontoseveralrecentaccidents,itisneverthelessexpectedtoincreaseinthefuture,withcountrieslikeChina,India,SouthKoreaandFinlandplanningtocontinueusingnuclearpower.321Inaddition,technologicalinnovationsmeanfusionfuel(deuteriumandtritium)cannowalsobeextractedmoresustainablyfromwaterandseawater,andguidelinesonwastemanagementshouldincreaseitspopularityinthefuture.322Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordThefutureoffossilfuelsCurrentlow-emissionandrenewabletechnologiescannotkeepupwithincreasingglobalenergydemand.323Asaresult,dependenceontheuseofcoalandoilislikelytocontinueforthenext20years,withprojectionsshowingthathydrocarbonsmightstillmeetaround70%ofoverallenergydemandby2050,eventhoughdemandisalsoexpectedtodecelerateinthe2040s.324,325Traderoutesmayshift,however,ascountriesinEuropereducetheirrelianceonfossilfuelsandenergydemandincreasesinemergingeconomies(especiallywithanexpectedgrowthinthenumberofcars),leadingtoariseinoiltradebetweenAsiaandtheMiddleEast.326Asiamightbecomethelargestglobalmarketforoilexports,withscenariossuggestingthataround75%oftheworld’soilwillbeusedinAsia,andChinawilllikelyconsumemoreoilthantheUSasearlyas2030.327323.Globalrisks2035update.Declineornewrenaissance?(AtlanticCouncil,2019)324.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)325.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)326.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)327.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)328.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)329.TenTrendsThatWillShapeScienceinthe2020s(SmithsonianMagazine,2020)330.U.S.-ChinaJointGlasgowDeclarationonEnhancingClimateActioninthe2020s(U.S.DepartmentofState,2021)Theriskofcontinuingtorelyonfossilfuelisthatasdemandforenergyandresourcesgrow,competitionwillincreasetoaccessloweringsupplies,whichcouldleadtoconflictandinternationaldisputes.328Technologicaladvancestoopenupnewenergysourcesandtomakerenewable-energyexploitationmoreefficientandcost-effectivecanaddressthischallengeinthelongrun.Atthesametime,transitionawayfromcoalispredictedwithrenewableslikewind,solarandhydropowertosurpasscoalasthemainsourceofelectricityby2030.329Recentannouncementsduringthe2021UnitedNationsClimateChangeConference(COP26)seemtosupportthisprediction,withChinaandtheUSannouncingacollaborationonenvironmentalstandardsrelatedtoreducingemissionsofGHGsinthe2020s.330Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordThecaseofshaleoilandgas,andliquidnaturalgasShaleoilandgas(extractedusingfracking),andliquidnaturalgas(LNG)arealsoincreasinglyreliedonasfossilenergysources.Whiletheyhavebeenusedforyears,recenttechnologicalinnovationshaveopenedmorecommercially-viablereservesglobally.Thishasshiftedthebalanceofpowerfromtraditionaloilexporters,totheUS,forexample,whichisnowtheworld’sleadingoilproducer.331,332Asaregion,southwestAsia/theMiddleEastisstillexpectedtoremainthelargesthydrocarbon-basedproducingregioninthenextdecades,butthesecountriesarelikelytobecomenetenergyimportersasrelianceonfossilfueldecreases.333Inthiscontext,itispredictedthatLNGwillbecomeakeyexportresource.Thecontinuedexpansionoffrackingwill,however,stronglydependontheevolutionofinternationaleffortstowardsalow-carboneconomy334,asdrillinginvolvesvastamountsofwater,cancontaminategroundwaterandreleaseharmfulGHGs.WiththeCOP26commitmentofFord,GMandfourotherautomakersaswellasthirtygovernmentstophaseoutsalesofnewgasolineanddiesel-331.LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean2030.FutureScenarios(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,2016)332.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)333.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)334.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)335.6Automakersand30CountriesSayThey’llPhaseOutGasolineCar(NewYorkTimes,2021)336.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)337.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EuropeanStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)338.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)fuelledvehiclesby2040,itislikelytherewillbepressuretoincreaseinvestmentinrenewablesratherthaninshaleoil/gasandLNG.335ConclusionThestrategyofshiftingtosustainableenergysourcescoulddramaticallychangetheoutlookoftheenergysectorandourcapacitytolimitclimatechange.336However,althoughrenewablesourcesofenergyevolverapidly,theyareunlikelytosustaindemandunlessradical/disruptiveinnovationsmakethemcheaperandmoreefficient,incombinationwithinternationalagreementstoimposeemissionsstandardsandsubsidiestosupportthetransition.Akeyopportunityforthefutureistoconsidergreenenergyandalternativeenergysourcesasacompetitiveadvantage,ratherthanacostlytransition,representingopportunitiesfordevelopmentandjobcreationinfutureeconomies.337,338Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordRelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC301,Energymanagementandenergysavings•ISO/IEC13273-1:2015,Energyefficiencyandrenewableenergysources–Commoninternationalterminology–Part1:Energyefficiency•ISO/IEC13273-2:2015,Energyefficiencyandrenewableenergysources–Commoninternationalterminology–Part2:Renewableenergysources݁ISO/TC85,Nuclearenergy,nucleartechnologies,andradiologicalprotection•ISO/TR4450:2020,Qualitymanagementsystems–GuidancefortheapplicationofISO19443:2018,•ISO/ASTM51276:2019,Practiceforuseofapolymethylmethacrylatedosimetrysystem݁ISO/TC197,Hydrogentechnologies•ISO/CD19885-1,Gaseoushydrogen–Fuellingprotocolsforhydrogen-fuelledvehicles–Part1:Designanddevelopmentprocessforfuellingprotocols݁ISO/TC207/SC7,Greenhousegasmanagementandrelatedactivities•ISO/WD14068,Greenhousegasmanagementandrelatedactivities–CarbonneutralityRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-AffordableandCleanEnergy•ISO-ClimateAction•ISO-Powerofthesun•ISO-Bettingonbiomass•ISO-TheriseofenergyefficiencyEnvironment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordEnergystorageEnergystorageencompassesmultipletechnologiestoaccumulateorretainenergyineitherthermal(e.g.solarthermalplants),chemical(currentbatteries)ormechanical/kinetic(e.g.hydro,orcompressedair)systemswhichcanthenbereleasedwhenneeded.Thedesiredshifttowardsanet-zeroeconomyisdrivinginnovationinenergystorageandresearchintodirectpowerconversion.339,340Ourincreasingly,complexenergysectorissupplyingmoreinterdependenttechnologieswhichwillrequiremoreefficientandcheapertoolstoaddressenergydemand.Asaresult,innovationinbatterytechnologies,fuelalternatives,energyefficient(smart)appliances/buildings/cities,processenergy-improvements(industry),anddirectpowerconversiontechnologiessuchasfuelcellsshouldbeexpectedtodistributepowertoanincreasingamountofpeopleinthenearfuture.341339.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)340.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)341.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)Relatedtrends:InternetofThings,Naturalresourcescarcity,SmartcitiesEnvironment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordBatteriesEnergystoragewillplayacrucialroleindeliveringlower-costrenewableenergyinamoreflexibleandreliablemanner.Amajordriverofenergystoragetechnologiesistobetterintegrateintermittentrenewable-energysourcesintothegrid.Asintermittencyrequiresanotherenergysourcetofillingaps,energystorage–andlargebatterybanksespecially–canprovideasolution.Theraceforleadershipinenergystoragesolutionsthatincreasethemarketinfiltration/diffusionofrenewableshasalreadybegun,withorganizationsinvestingheavilyinnewbatterytechnologies.Giantbattery‘giga-factories’arebeingbuiltaroundtheglobetoaddressthedemand,asatestamenttothisincreasedinterest.Asoftoday,nobatterycanstoreandreleasesignificantvolumesofelectricityinanaffordablemanner.Thenextgenerationsofbatterieswillneedimprovementstobatterylifeandenergydensity,Batteryproductionwillalsoneedtobecomecleanerandmoreefficient.342Lithium-ionisthecurrentleadingbatterytechnology,poweringlaptopsandelectriccarsalike,butrareandexpensivematerialsrequiredtobuildthesebatteriesmeanstheyalsoneedtoevolve.Batterytechnologyhasimprovedsignificantlyoverthelasttwodecadesandprogresscontinues.Extensiveresearchanddevelopmentarecurrentlyunderwaytoimprovebatterychemistry342.TenTrendsThatWillShapeScienceinthe2020s(SmithsonianMagazine,2020)343.TenTrendsThatWillShapeScienceinthe2020s(SmithsonianMagazine,2020)344.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)andidentifybetterbatteryconstituents,toallowagreaterenergy-densityatlowercosts.Engineersareresearchingnewcathodematerialslikegrapheneorhexagonalboron-nitride,andatreplacinglithiumwithsodium,aluminum,orzinctobuildcheaperproducts.Alternativeresearchintosolid-statebatteriesmightalsopavethewayforward.Suchchangescouldleadtosmallerbatteriesthatlastlonger,chargefasterandconductlessheat.343,344Aconsiderationforthefuture,however,isthecostofenergystorageusingbatteries.Storinganddischargingelectricitycomesatacost(capitalplusenergyconsumptionandlosses)whichmustbeaddedtoelectricity-productioncosts.Usingpowerdirectlycanultimatelybecheaperandinvestingintheefficientdistributionandsharing/tradingofdirectpowersourcescouldbeaviablealternativelong-terminvestmentchoice.Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordPowertoX–DirectpowerconversionPowertoXtechnologies,alsoknownasdirectpowerconversion,aretechnologiesaimingtotransformsourcesofenergy(e.g.renewablesourceslikesunlightorwindandgaseslikehydrogenandmethane)directlyintoheat,electricity,chemicals,orfuelthroughaprocessofelectrolysisorsynthesis.Thisenergycanthenbestoredorusedtomanufacturegoodsandpowervarioussystems.345PowertoXtechnologiesthereforeprovidepotentialavenuestohelpdecarbonizeenergy-intensiveindustrieswithhighCO2emissions,suchasconstruction,manufacturing,andtransport.Greenhydrogenhasreceivedparticularattentionforitspotentialtotransformtheenergysector,withtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)highlightingtheroleitcouldplayinreducingglobalCO2emissions.Greenhydrogeniscarbon-neutralandisproducedusingelectrolysisfromrenewableresources,asopposedtothesteamreformingofnaturalgases(fossilfuel)usedtoproducegreyandbluehydrogen.Untilrecently,thehighcostsofproducingandstoringgreenhydrogenhavebeenamajorbarriertoitswidespreaduse,buttechnologicaladvances(e.g.betterelectrolysersandsurpluselectricity)arenowmakinggreenhydrogenanattractiveoption346345.Futuretechnologyforprosperity.HorizonscanningbyEurope’stechnologyleaders(EuropeanCommission,2019)346.Top10EmergingTechnologiesof2020(WorldEconomicForum,2020)347.Top10EmergingTechnologiesof2020(WorldEconomicForum,2020)348.Top10EmergingTechnologiesof2020(WorldEconomicForum,2020)349.Futuretechnologyforprosperity.HorizonscanningbyEurope’stechnologyleaders(EuropeanCommission,2019)350.Technicalandeconomicconditionsforinjectinghydrogenintonaturalgasnetworks(GRTgaz,2019)–trendreportssuggestthatefficientelectrolyserstoproducegreenhydrogenascheaplyasitsgreyorbluecounterpartcouldbedevelopedwithinthenextdecade.347Inaddition,projectssuchasGigastackexploretheproductionofgreenhydrogenatindustrialscale,integratingelectrolysersdirectlyintooffshorewindfarmstoproducegreenhydrogen.348ChallengesremainhoweverfortheefficientstorageandconversionofhydrogenandotherPowertoXinnovations,andexistinginfrastructurewillneedupdatingtoeffectivelyintegratethesetechnologies.349Acurrenttransitionstrategyforlower-carbonfuelsourcesistheintegrationofhydrogenintonatural-gasnetworks(toprepareforthedevelopmentofpower-to-gasprocesses),whichimprovestheenergyefficiencyoftheresultingfuelmixture.350Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordFuelsubstitutionAccordingtosomeforecasts,energyuseinthetransportsectormightriseby45%of2010figuresby2040.351ImprovingenergyefficiencyandtransitioningtoalternativetechnologiestopowerthetransportsectoristhereforeessentialtoachieveGHGreductiontargetsandreduceoverallpowerconsumption.Thedesiretoshiftourenergyuseawayfromfossilfuelshaspropelledresearchinto‘cleancars’,whichareleadinginnovationinenergystorageanddistribution,withvehiclesreadilyavailableinsomemarkets.Cleancarscanbedefinedaselectrically-propelledvehiclesusinghydrogenfuelcells,batteriesoracombinationofmethodsalsoknownashybrid.Thislastcategorydoes,however,stillrelypartlyoncombustionengines,soconsideringthemascleanisdebatable.Themainchallengesfacingcleancarsareensuringfueleconomyforconsumers,deliveringperformanceandreliabilityatacostcompetitivewithconventionalvehicles,andensuringthatelectricalgridshavethecapacitytocopewiththeincreaseddemandfromcleancars.However,theemergenceofcleancarsalsoopensuppossibilitiesofusingthetransportnetworkasdistributed-energystoragesystemwithinfuturesmartgrids.352,353Insuchasystem,351.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)352.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)353.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)354.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)355.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)356.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)electriccarscouldactasbatteriestoabsorbgridexcesspowerduringtimesoflowdemandandreinjectenergyinpowergridsatpeakhours.354Hybridandelectricenginesshouldsoonbecomethenormforpersonalvehiclesandareexpectedtosuccessfullycompetewithinternalcombustionenginesby2030thankstonewgenerationbatteries.355Similarly,theriseofshalegasandbiofuelssuggeststheshareofnatural-gaspoweredvehiclescouldalsoincreaseinregionswhereitisabundant(andthereforecheaper),thoughdifficultiesinstoringnaturalgas(pressurizedtanks)isachallengethatstillneedsaddressing.Theshapeoftheprivate-vehiclemarketandwhichsystemtaketheleadwillstronglydependonincominginnovationsandbedrivenbyconsumerchoicesindevelopingcountries.356Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordCommercialfleets,however,arestilllikelytorelyonfossilfuelanddieselforsometimetocome.Foralternativeenginestotrulycompetewithconventionalvehicles,improvementswillberequiredintermsofbatterycost,size,weightandpowertoincreasetherangepossibleonasinglecharge;thenumberofchargingpointsavailable;andthechargingtimerequiredtopowerupthecar.357,358,359Onekeytechnologytowatchishydrogen-poweredfuelcellsasapotentialsolutionforshippingandheavyvehicles.360Commercialtransport(buses,commercialvehicles,deliveryfleets,andtrucks)isoftenseenasthemostpromisingsectortopromotehydrogenasanenergycarrierinordertocutemissions,thoughcostsandefficiencyimprovementsarerequiredbeforethetechnologyisreadytobescaledup.361Innovationsinothercategoriesofthetransportsectorarealsoemerging,includinghybridsystemsforshipsandaircraft.Forships,usingnaturalgas,marinediesel-gasorheavyfuel-oiltopoweratri-fueldieselelectricpropulsionsystemisenteringthemarketasapossiblealternative.Anotheristhecurrenttransitiontowardsshore-sidepower,wherebyshippingportsprovideelectricpower357.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)358.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)359.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)360.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)361.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)362.Shore-sidepower.Akeyroletoplayingreenershipping(ShipTechnology,2016)363.Top10EmergingTechnologiesof2020(WorldEconomicForum,2020)toshipswhileatberthinsteadofthemrelyingontheirengines.Thistransitionisslow,however,filledwithdistrustandminimalinvestments.362Foraircraft,afulltransitiontoelectricislikelyfurtherdowntheline(2050+),whetheritbebatteryorsolarbased,thoughbattery-poweredelectricaircraftcouldstartbeingdeployedasearlyas2025forflightsunder800km.363Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordEnergydistributionThedigitalizationoftheenergysectorThedigitalizationofoureconomies,withadvancesin,forexample,the‘InternetofThings’andbigdataanalytics,hasradicallychangedenergytransmission,distributionrequirementsanddemand.Althoughthisimpliesgreaterenergyuse,italsoholdspromisestooptimizeenergyusage.364Theeraofsmarttechnologiesispredictedtorapidlyexpand,butthesetechnologiesalsoraisenewsecurityandprivacyquestionsthatwillneedtobeaddressed(see‘Techrisks’).Similarly,electricitygridswillbecomemorecomplex,withmoreactorsinvolved,creatinggreaterchallengesforriskmanagementandgreaterpotentialforsystemicfailure.365364.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)365.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)366.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)367.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)Smarttechnologies‘Smart’technologiesarenotwelldefined,butgenerallyrefertothreekindsofobjects:smartdevicesthatcanbeprogrammedandhavesomelevelofautomationbutnoconnectivity(e.g.asmartthermostatorcoffeemachine);connecteddevicesthatarecontrolledviawirelesslythroughBluetoothorWi-Fi(e.g.wearables,smartphones),andIoTdevicesthatconnecttotheInternetandcansendandreceivedatabetweenotherdevicesandsystems.Intermsofenergystorageanddistribution,smarttechnologies(suchassmartgrids)willblurthelinesbetweensupplierandenduser,byallowingbusinessesandhouseholdsaliketotrackandgeneratetheirownenergysupplies(andevenshareorselltheirsurplus).Byincludingoperationalandenergymeasuresalongthesupplychain(e.g.smartmeters),andduetobig-dataanalyticsandmachinelearning,smarttechnologiescouldpredictsystemfailuresorallowdevicesandsystemstoadjustenergyuseinresponsetospecificconditions.Thelattercouldinclude,forexample.beingactivewhensupplyisabundantandinactiveorinbattery-savingmodewhensupplyislimited.366,367Thiscouldleadtooverallenergysavingsandmoreefficiencyinthesystem.Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordBeyondthosepromises,smarttechnologies,asawhole,raisenewsecurityandprivacyquestions,suchashowhousehold,energydataiscollectedandstoredinordertopredictgridconditions.Guidelinesandregulationswillberequiredtoprotectusersandpromotegoodpracticeinhowtodealwithsensitivedataandensureprivacyandsecurity(see‘Dataprivacy’).368Ultrahigh-voltagedirect-currenttransmissionlinesUltrahigh-voltagedirect-current(UHVDC)transmissionlinesareexpectedtobecomethemainelectricity-transmissiontechnologytoenableamoreefficient,bulk-powertransferoverlongdistances,thanalternatingcurrent(AC).369Currently,over250gigawattsofinterconnectorsandhigh-voltagetransmissionlinksareinstalledglobally,whichisexpectedtoincreaseexponentiallytowards2030,withcountrieslikeChina,India,theUS,andtheEUheavilyinvestinginthetechnology.370Thehighervoltageavailableinenergytransmissiontechnologieswillenablethemovementofenergyaselectricityoverlongdistances368.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)369.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)370.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)371.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)372.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)373.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)ratherthanrelyingonmovingenergyresourcesthemselves.Bycarryingelectricitydirectlyfromthesourcetowhereitisneededandthenused,itwillbemoreefficientandpotentiallycheaperthanexistingtechnologies.Thisinturnwillmakeitattractivetouseandgivingitthepowertochangetheeconomicsofenergydistribution.371Thiswillhaveasignificantimpactonshippinginparticular,whichwillnolongerbeneededtotransportlargequantitiesofcoalandoil.Someestimatessuggestthat“energy-relatedshippingmightdeclineby50%forcoaland25%foroilby2050.”372Itwillalsopromoteemissionsreductionsandthetransitiontoalow-carboneconomy.UHVDCcanincreasetheattractivenessofrenewablesbyaddressingtheirapparentlackofreliability–bytransferringelectricityfromareaswithasurplusorhighproductioncapacitytootherareasacrossinterconnectedsystems,operatorscanadjustsupplyanddemandefficiently.373Thisispossiblethankstoinnovativesensorsandcontrolsthatallowminute-by-minutevariancesinthedirectionandmagnitudeofflow.Inaddition,thereducedneedtoshipenergyresourceswillhelploweremissionsfromthetransportindustry.Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordFinally,UHVDCcanalsoconnectmorepeopletotheenergysupplysystem.WhiletheIEAreportsthatover750millionpeoplestilldonothaveaccesstoelectricity,accessisincreasingrapidly.374Newtransmissiontechnologiescouldacceleratethespreadofaccesstoelectricityandevenleaddevelopingcountriestoleapfrogintheenergysector375–overthenext30years,manycountriesinAfricaareexpectedtopotentiallyskipdevelopmentphasesthatoldereconomieshavetransitionedthrough,andmovestraightintodigitalandsustainableinfrastructure.Asaregionwhereamajorityofthepopulationdoesnothaveaccesstoelectricity,thisisexpectedtodramaticallychangethepowerdynamicsintheenergysector.ItisalsoanopportunityforAfricancountriesrichinnaturalresourcestocombinethedevelopmentgoalofaccesstoelectricitywithresilient,low-carbondevelopment.376374.Accesstoelectricity(InternationalEnergyAgency,2020)375.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)376.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)377.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)378.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)379.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)380.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)Thefutureofdistribution:Fromstate-basedcentralizedsystemstoregionalandlocalsolutionsRegionalsolutions:sub-nationalinterconnectedenergynetworksInthecontextestablishedabove,countriescurrentlyfaceachoicebetweenpursuingelectrificationanddistributionthroughanationalagenda,orthroughanapproachofenergyinterdependenceatregionalorlocallevels.377,378Consideringthecommercialcostofinvestmentinnewtransmissionlinesandotherenergytechnologies,aswellasresourcelimitationsinanysinglecountry,cooperationandenergytradebetweencountriesyieldsmanybenefits.Itcanminimizeenergy-productioncostsandincreaseregionalsurplusthroughsharinginfrastructureandresources,andtakingadvantageofthedifferentrenewable-energyprofilesofparticipatingcountriesinordertoadjustsupplyanddemandefficiently.379“Insub-SaharanAfrica,wherethecostofenergysupplyisamongstthehighestintheworld,regionaltrademayreducecostsbyanaverageof40%.”380LatinAmericacanserveasanexample,ascountrieshavelargelyinvestedinregionalenergysystemstoreduceenergycosts,improvereliabilityanddiversifyEnvironment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordtheregion’senergysources(see,forexample,theCentralAmericanElectricalInterconnectionSystem(SIEPAC),andtheAndeanElectricalInterconnectionSystem).381However,thisregionalapproachisnotwithoutsignificantchallenges,includingthoserelatedtocooperationacrossmultiplejurisdictionsandcountries,withvariedinfrastructuresandlegislationandthefactthatexistingelectricitygridfacilitiesinbothdevelopinganddevelopedcountrieswillneedtobeupdatedtoaccommodaterenewable-energysources,whicharedifferentfromtheinfrastructureusedforfossilfuels.382381.LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean2030.Futurescenarios(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,2016)382.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)383.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)384.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)385.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)Localsolutions:beyondthegridAnalternativetomega-gridsisthedevelopmentoflocalandsmall-scaledistributed,energysystemsthatdonotrequirepower-gridconnection(microgrids).Withsuchinnovations,homes,cities,andlocalequipmentcouldactastoolsforelectricityproduction,storage,anddistribution,therebyremovinglocalcommunities’relianceoncentralizedandstate-basedgrids.383Thiscanleadtomoreresilientcommunities,withincreasedsecurityofenergysuppliesforremotecommunitiesthathaveareducedaccesstothegrid,orintheeventofnaturaldisasters.Itcouldalsoprovideopportunitiestogenerateincome.384However,withmoreactorsinvolved,thecomplexityoftheenergysystemwouldincrease,andwithit,theriskoffailures.385Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordRelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC301,Energymanagementandenergysavings•ISO50001:2018,Energymanagementsystems–Requirementswithguidanceforuse݁ISO/TC197,Hydrogentechnologies•ISO17268:2020,Gaseoushydrogenlandvehiclerefuellingconnectiondevices•ISO22734:2019,Hydrogengeneratorsusingwaterelectrolysis–Industrial,commercial,andresidentialapplications݁ISO/TC205,Buildingenvironmentdesign•ISO13153:2012,Frameworkofthedesignprocessforenergy-savingsingle-familyresidentialandsmallcommercialbuildings•ISO/TR16822:2016,Buildingenvironmentdesign–Listoftestproceduresforheating,ventilating,air-conditioninganddomestichotwaterequipmentrelatedtoenergyefficiencyRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-AffordableandCleanEnergy•ISO-Zero-energybuildings•ISO-Ontheroadtonetzero•ISO-Helpingtheworldreachnet-zeroemissions•ISO-TheriseofenergyefficiencyEnvironment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordNaturalresourcesscarcityThreatenedecosystemsThenaturalworldhasbeenirreversiblychangedbyhumanactionsandthishasledtolong-termtrendstowardsincreasingenvironmentaldegradationandscarcityofnaturalresources.Bothofthesetrendsarecloselyinterlinkedandwillposesignificantchallengesoverthenextfewdecades,requiringlarge-scale,internationalactiontoavoidtheworst-casescenario.Humanactivitieshaveresultedinairpollution,habitatdestruction,soilerosion,desertification,oceanacidificationandmanyotherchangesthatarecausingsignificantstresstoecosystems.Withagrowingglobalpopulation,demandforfreshwaterandarablelandforagricultureareexpectedtoincreaseinthefuture.Thedevelopmentofnewtechnologies(suchassmartfarming)willbeessentialtoovercomesomeofthesechallenges.However,manysuchtechnologies,includingcleanenergytechnologies,requirecriticalmineralsthatarealsoinshortsupply.Substantialeffortsintermsofbothmitigation(reductionofcarbonemissions)andadaptation(changingbehaviours,consumptionpatterns,resourcemanagementandmore)willberequiredtomaintainalevelofecosystemservicesneededforhumanwellbeing.NaturalresourcesscarcityAstheeffectsofclimatechangecontinuetoimpacttheglobe,precious,naturalresourceslikefreshwater,arablelandandmineralsareexpectedtobecomeincreasinglyscarce,withsignificantimplicationsforagricultureandfoodsecurity,aswellastheproductionofmanynewinnovativetechnologies.AccordingtotheUSNationalIntelligenceCouncil,“nearlyalloftheEarth’ssystemsareundergoingnaturalandhuman-inducedstressesoutpacingnationalandinternationalenvironmentalprotectionefforts.”386TheWorldEconomicForumidentifies386.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)Relatedtrends:Energysources,Energystorageanddistribution,Increasedmigration,Riseofthemiddleclass,Sustainableproduction,ThreatenedecosystemsEnvironmentaldegradationEnvironment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordhumanover-exploitationand/ormismanagementaskeydriversofthescarcityofnaturalresources.387Resourcescarcity,whetherofwater,landorminerals,mayalsobeadriverofconflict,particularlywhereeconomicandpoliticalissuescreatebarrierstoaccesstonaturalresources.388,389Water,land,andconsequencesforfoodproductionWaterisalreadyscarceandislikelytobecomeevenmorescarceinfuture.Only3%oftheworld’swaterisfreshwater,andmuchofthisisisnotreadilyaccessibleduetofactorsthatincluderemotelocation,politicalboundaries,economics,andpurity.TheUNFoodandAgriculturalOrganization(FAO)estimatesthat1.8billionpeopleworldwidewillfacewaterscarcityby2025and5.2billionareexpectedtofacewaterstress.By2050,theFAOestimatesthatonly60%ofthewaterneededwillbeavailable.390Althoughclimatechangemaypromoteglaciermeltingthatcouldleadtoincreasedflowsofwater,highertemperaturesarealsoexpectedtoincrease387.TheGlobalRisksReport2021(WorldEconomicForum,2021)388.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)389.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)390.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)391.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)392.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)393.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)394.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)waterlossduetoevaporation.391Anincreasingdemandforwaterwillmaketheextractionandproduction(e.g.throughdesalination)offreshwatermoreenergyintensive,andislikelytodriveupcostsforaccesstowater.392Industrialwaterpollution,inadequatewatermanagement,andnon-compliancewithwatersharingagreementsandtreatyprovisionsmayleadtotensionsoveraccesstowatersources.393Thesameforcesthatareexpectedtoimpactwaterscarcity(climatechange,populationgrowth,‘Urbanization’,economicdevelopment,andpoormanagement)willalsoimpacttheavailabilityofarablelandforfarming.Thisisaseriouschallengewhenprojectionsestimatethataveragelevelsoffoodproductionwillhavetoincreasebyaround50%by2050(froma2012baseline)tomeettheneedsoftheworld’spopulation.394Indeed,itisimpossibletoseparateouttheissuesofwaterandlandscarcityaseachaffectstheotherinasignificantway.Forexample,around70%ofglobalwaterconsumptiongoestoagriculture,agriculturewillberesponsibleforaEnvironment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordlargepartoftheincreaseddemandforwaterinfuture395,andcurrentintensivefarmingtechniquesarelinkedtowaterpollution,alongwithairpollution,soildegradationandpestresistance.396Waterscarcityandotherconsequencesofclimatechange,suchasvolatileweathereventsandsea-levelrise,will,ontheonehand,reducetheamountoflandavailablefordevelopingnewagriculturalareasand,ontheotherhand,leadtoreducedagriculturalproduction.Theresultingfoodinsecurityispredictedtohaveadisproportionateeffectondevelopingcountries,withsomepredictingthat“Africacouldfaceaneardouble-digitreductionincropyieldsandproductionvolumesoverthenextdecade,aswellasrisingfoodpricesbysimilarmargins.”397Technologywillneedtoplayamajorroleinovercomingnaturalresourcescarcityandimprovingagriculturalproductivity.398‘Smartfarming’andtechniquessuchashydroponicsandverticalfarmingwillbekey.Smartfarminginvolvestheuseofdigitaltechnologies–e.g.unmannedmachinery,robots,sensors,drones,bigdata,andadvancedanalytics–tobeabletoanalysetheindividualneedsofspecificfields,crops,oranimals.399Thiskindofprecisionagriculture395.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)396.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)397.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)398.GlobalstrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)399.Futuretechnologyforprosperity.HorizonscanningbyEurope’stechnologyleaders(EUCommission,2019)400.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)ismoreenvironmentallybenign,minimizeswaterandelectricityuse,whilemaximizingtheproductivityoftheland.Hydroponics(growingplantsinmineralsolutionsinsteadofsoil)andverticalfarming(growingcropsinverticallystackedlayers)bothreducetheneedforlandtogrowcertaincropsandmakeitmorepracticaltofarmtheminurbanenvironments.400CriticalmineralsandconsequencesforemergingtechnologiesandtheenergytransitionScarcityissuesalsoapplytolesser-knownnaturalresourceslikecriticalminerals–raremetalssuchaslithium,telluriumandrareearthmetalsthatareusedforbatteries,solarpanels,andvariouselectronicdevices.Demandfortheseproducttypeswillonlyincreaseinthecomingdecadesasmorepeoplejointhemiddleclassandpurchaseconsumerelectronicssuchassmartphones.Inaddition,astheglobalcommunitystepsupeffortstocutGHGemissions,andtransitiontocleanersourcesofenergysuchaselectricvehicles(whichrequirealotoflithium)andsolarpower,thiswillincreasethedemandfortheseraremetals.Asthisdemandgrows,pressureontheselimitedresourceswillbesignificant.Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordWiththebulkofknowncriticalmineraldepositsinasmallnumberofcountries,politicalandsupplychainissuescouldcausesignificantchallengesinthefuture.401Scarcityofwater,landormineralswillprovidebothchallengesandopportunitiesforbusinesses,whomayhavelessreadilyavailableresourcesforproduction,butwhomayseepotentialmarketopportunitiesdevelopforsustainableandeco-friendlyproduction.402RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC207,Environmentalmanagement•ISO14001:2015,Environmentalmanagementsystems–Requirementswithguidanceforuse•ISO14046:2014,Environmentalmanagement–Waterfootprint–Principles,requirementsandguidelines݁ISO/TC23,Tractorsandmachineryforagricultureandforestry(anditssubcommittees)•ISO17989-1:2015,Tractorsandmachineryforagricultureandforestry–Sustainability–Part1:Principles݁ISO/TC224,Drinkingwater,wastewaterandstormwatersystemsandservices•ISO46001:2019,Waterefficiencymanagementsystems–Requirementswithguidanceforuse݁ISO/TC282,Waterreuse•ISO22519:2019,Purifiedwaterandwaterforinjectionpretreatmentandproductionsystems݁ISO/TC287,Sustainableprocessesforwoodandwood-basedproducts•ISO38200:2018,Chainofcustodyofwoodandwood-basedproductsRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Farmingfit,farmingsmart•ISO-CalculatingthevalueoftheenvironmentwithnewISOstandard•ISO-Astandardforwaterreusebringshopeforwaterscarcity•ISO-Managingapreciousresource•ISO-Precisionfarmingtakesoff•ISO-Puttingwastetogooduse401.Criticalmineralsscarcitycouldthreatenrenewableenergyfuture(StanfordUniversity,2018)402.GlobalTrends2020.UnderstandingComplexity(Ipsos,2020)Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword݁ISO/TC298,Rareearth•ISO22450:2020,Recyclingofrareearthelements–Requirementsforprovidinginformationonindustrialwasteandend-of-lifeproducts•ISO/TS22451:2021,Recyclingofrareearthelements–Methodsforthemeasurementofrareearthelementsinindustrialwasteandend-of-lifeproducts•ISO22453:2021,Exchangeofinformationonrareearthelementsinindustrialwastesandend-of-lifecycledproducts•ISO23664:2021,Traceabilityofrareearthsinthesupplychainfromminetoseparatedproducts݁ISO/TC323,Circulareconomy•ISO/AWI59040,CircularEconomy–ProductCircularityDataSheet݁ISO/TC331,Biodiversity•ISO/AWITS13208-1,Biodiversity–Vocabulary–Part1:Generalterms݁ISO/TC333,Lithium•ISO/AWI9287,Lithiumsustainabilityacrossthevaluechain:concentration,extraction,separation,conversion,recycling,andreuse݁ISO/TMBG,TechnicalManagementBoard-groups•ISO/TMBG/SAG_CRMI,ISOStrategicAdvisoryGrouponCriticalminerals•ISO/TMBG/SAGSF,SmartFarmingEnvironment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordThreatenedecosystemsEcosystemsworldwideareatincreasingriskoflong-termchangesanddamage.Changestoplantlife-cyclesandanimalbehaviourareobservedinbothlandandmarineecosystems.403Threatsfrompollution,habitatdestruction,deforestation,over-exploitation,changesinbiodiversity,seabedminingandoceanacidificationareallinterferingwiththenaturalfunctioningoftheearth’secosystems404,405alongsidetheongoingthreatofglobalwarming.406ReducingemissionsofCO2andotherGHGsisacriticalresponsetothesethreats,and,ifambitiousemission-reductiontargetsareachieved,offerssomehopefortheworld’secosystems.407Airpollutioncontinuestoincrease,especiallyinrapidlygrowingcities,andwillposesignificanthealthrisksintothefuture.408By2035,airpollutionmaybethetopcauseofenvironmentally-relateddeathsworldwide.409Airqualityispredictedtobecome“themostsignificantindicatorwithregardstoqualityoflife,happinessandotherindices.”410Asgrowingnumbersofpeopleliveinurbanareas,airpollutioncanbeexpectedtoincreaseandwillespeciallyimpacton403.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)404.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)405.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)406.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)407.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)408.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)409.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)410.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)Relatedtrends:Naturalresourcescarcity,Increasedmigration,Riseofthemiddleclass,Sustainableproduction,Syntheticbiology,UrbanizationEnvironment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForewordurbanpopulations.411Already,morethan80%ofpeoplelivingincitiesareexposedtoairpollutionthatexceedssafelimits.412Signsofhopeinrelationtoairpollutionmayappearintheformofincreasedpublicawareness,cleanertransportoptions,retrofittedbuildings,andimprovedurbandesign.413Soilerosionanddesertificationwillincreasinglythreatenagriculturalandhabitableland414,particularlywheredeforestationandunsustainablefarmingpracticescontinue.RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC207,Environmentalmanagement•ISO14055-1:2017,Environmentalmanagement–Guidelinesforestablishinggoodpracticesforcombattinglanddegradationanddesertification–Part1:Goodpracticesframework•ISOTR14055-2:2022,Environmentalmanagement–Guidelinesforestablishinggoodpracticesforcombattinglanddegradationanddesertification–Part2:Regionalcasestudies݁ISO/TC82/SC7,Mineclosureandreclamationmanagement•ISO21795-1:2021,Mineclosureandreclamationplanning–Part1:Requirements•ISO21795-2:2021,Mineclosureandreclamationplanning–Part2:GuidanceRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-ClimateAction•ISO-Onestowatch•ISO-InternationalDayofForests•ISO-Biodiversityhighonstandardsagenda•ISO-Puttingsustainabilityattheheartofthestandardsagenda•ISO-Food,feed,fibre•ISO-BreatheeasywithISOstandardsonWorldEnvironmentDay•ISO-NewISOstandardtocombatlanddegradation411.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)412.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)413.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)414.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)Environment‹›EnvironmentSocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyForeword݁ISO/TC190,Soilquality•ISO15175:2018,Soilquality–characterizationofcontaminatedsoilrelatedtogroundwaterprotection•ISO19204:2017,Soilquality–Procedureforsite-specificecologicalriskassessmentofsoilcontamination݁ISO/TC234,Fisheriesandaquaculture•ISO/PRF5020,Wastereductionandtreatmentonfishingvessels•ISO22948:2020,Carbonfootprintforseafood–Productcategoryrules(CFP–PCR)forfinfish݁ISO/TC265,Carbondioxidecapture,transportation,andgeologicalstorage•ISO27919-1:2018,Carbondioxidecapture–Part1:Performanceevaluationmethodsforpost-combustionCO2captureintegratedwithapowerplant•ISO27919-2:2021,Carbondioxidecapture–Part2:Evaluationproceduretoassureandmaintainstableperformanceofpost-combustionCO2captureplantintegratedwithapowerplant݁ISO/TR27923:2022,Carbondioxidecapture,transportationandgeologicalstorage–Injectionoperations,infrastructureandmonitoring݁ISO/TC287,Sustainableprocessesforwoodandwood-basedproducts•ISO38200:2018,Chainofcustodyofwoodandwood-basedproducts݁ISO/TC331,Biodiversity•ISO/AWITS13208-1,Biodiversity–Vocabulary–Part1:Generalterms݁ISO/TMBG,TechnicalManagementBoard-groups•ISO/TMBG/CCCC,ClimateChangeCoordinationCommittee•ISOGuide82:2019,Guidelinesforaddressingsustainabilityinstandards•ISOGuide84:2020,GuidelinesforaddressingclimatechangeinstandardsEnvironment‹›Economy݁TradeEconomySocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentEconomyForewordChangingtradepatternsNewbusinessmodelsTradehasbeenincreasinglyglobalizedinrecentdecades,butthistrendisnowslowing,andthefuturemayseeanincreasingfragmentationandashifttowardsregionalizationandlocalization.Driversofthesechangingtradepatternswillincludeshiftingconsumptionpatterns(with,forexample,goodsproducedinChinaincreasinglybeingconsumedinSoutheastAsia),changesinthepoliticalenvironment(see‘Powertransition’),changingconsumerpreferences(see‘Consumption’),andthegrowthofnewbusinessmodelsthataremadepossiblebynewtechnologies(suchas‘Blockchain’and‘Additivemanufacturing’).ChangingtradepatternsRegionalization/localizationAlthoughdigitalglobalizationlookssettocontinueapace,tradeglobalizationhasbeenslowingdownoverthepast10to15yearsasthenumberofbilateralandregionaltradeagreementsproliferates,andcountriesincreasetheiruseofrestrictive,tradepolicymeasures.415,416Regionaltradeagreementsmayincreasetheintensityoftradebetweentheirsignatorycountries417whileregionalconnectivityinitiatives(forexample,theMasterPlanonTheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations[ASEAN]connectivity)willmakeintra-regionaltrademoreefficient.418Thismayhaveparticularimpactsfordevelopingeconomies–theAfrican415.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)416.Globaltrends2040.Amorecontestedworld(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2021)417.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)418.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)Relatedtrends:5G,Additivemanufacturing,Customizedproducts,Dataprivacy,Diversifyinginequalities,Riseofthemiddleclass,Servicesmovingonline,SpreadoftheInternet,Threatenedecosystems,UrbanizationTradeEconomy‹›EconomySocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentEconomyForewordContinentalFreeTradeAgreement,forexample,integratesamarketof1.2billionpeopleandmaysignificantlystimulatethegrowthofAfricaneconomiesbyconsiderablyincreasingintra-continentaltrade.419Thepotentialdownsideisthatregionalizedtradingcouldleadtodisconnectedmarketsandprotectionism,particularlyifthereareconflictingtechnologystandardsbetweenregions.420Alongsidethisshiftfrominternationaltointra-regionaltrade,thereisalsoashiftfromcountriestocities,asthedriversofwealthcreationandinnovation(localization).Citieswillincreasingly“shapethedynamicsofinternationaltrade”421overthenext30yearsasmorepeoplemovetourbanareasbecauseofbetteropportunitiesforworkandeducation.Citiesmayevenstrengthentheirpositionintheglobaleconomytotheextentthatthey“couldreplacecountriesasthemostimportanteconomicentities”(see‘Smartcities’).422419.ForesightAfrica.Topprioritiesforthecontinent2020-2030(BrookingsInstitution,2020)420.Globalrisks2035update.Declineornewrenaissance?(AtlanticCouncil,2019)421.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)422.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)423.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)424.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)IncreasingSouth-SouthtradeTradebetweenemergingeconomies(knownasSouth-Southtrade)hasincreasedsignificantlyoverthelast20yearsandthistrendispredictedtocontinuealongsideeconomicgrowthinthosecountries.South-SouthRegionalTradeAgreements(RTAs)alreadymakeupmorethanhalfthetotalnumberofRTAsintheworld,withthemajorityinAsia.423FurtherSouth-Southtradegrowthwillbedrivenbyanincreaseindemandforconsumergoodsfromagrowingmiddleclass(oftengoodsthatareproducedinemergingeconomies),alongsidebettercommunicationsandeasiercustomsarrangements.424Economy‹›EconomySocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentEconomyForewordWhatandhowwetradeThecompositionoftradeflowsandthemeansbywhichtheyaretransportedareevolving.Intermsofwhatwetrade,forseveraldecades,internationaltradeinserviceshasgrownatamuchfasterpacethantradeingoods,and,despitebeinghithardbytheCOVID-19pandemic,globaltradeinawiderangeofservices(e.g.financial,communications,tourism)isexpectedtoincreaseoverthenext20years.425Tradeindigitalservices(i.e.servicesprovidedoverdigitalnetworks,suchascomputernetworkmaintenance,entertainment,broadcasting,orfinancialmanagement)isoneareathathasseenahugegrowthrecently(see‘Servicesmovingonline’),andthishasledtoamassiveincreaseintheamountofcross-borderdataflows.426Suchcross-borderdataflowsareessentialfordigitalservicestradebutmustalsobecarefullymanagedduetoprivacyconcerns.Countriesmustensuretheyplaceadequaterestrictionsoncross-borderdataflowstoprotectpersonaldataandnationalsecurity,withouttheserestrictionsbeingsoseverethattheynegativelyaffectthelevelofdigitalservicestrade.427Theimportanceoftradeindigitalservicesmeansthatallcountrieswillhavetomake425.Globaltrends2040.Amorecontestedworld(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2021)426.DigitalEconomyReport2021.Cross-borderdataflowsanddevelopment:Forwhomthedataflow(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2021)427.WorldDevelopmentReport2021.DataforBetterLives(WorldBank,2021)428.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)429.DigitalEconomyReport2021.Cross-borderdataflowsanddevelopment:Forwhomthedataflow(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2021)430.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)431.AsiaPacificMegatrends2040(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)biginvestmentsindigitalcapacityanddatainfrastructuretokeepupwiththisevolutionoftheglobaltradingsystem.428Countrieslessabletodosowillbeatahugedisadvantageintermsofeconomicandsocialdevelopment.Thedigitaldivide(relatedtolevelsofconnectivityandaccesstotheInternet)anddata-relateddive(relatedtotheabilitytocapture,analyzeandtransformdataintodigitalintelligence)betweendevelopedanddevelopingcountriesisthereforeamajorchallengetoovercome.429Intermsofhowwetrade,climatechange,newtechnologiesandshiftingcustomerpreferencesareallcontributingtoreshapingthetradeandlogisticssectors.Thepotentiallydisruptiveeffectsofclimatechangearecausingcompaniestomodifythewaytheyoperatetoincreasetheresilienceandreliabilityoftheirsupplychains.430Insomecases,thismeanstheshorteningofsupplychains,whichismadepossiblebynewdigitaltechnologiessuchasautomationand‘5G’(note:thiscontributestothetrendawayfromtradeglobalization).431Growthinthe3D-printingmarket(see‘Additivemanufacturing’)alsofacilitatesthis,byallowingforwhat’scalled‘re-shoring’or‘near-shoring’ofproduction–wheremanufacturingEconomy‹›EconomySocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentEconomyForewordcanbeperformedondemandandmuchclosertotheenduser.432Whilethismaydecreasetheneedforlong-distancetransport,itwillnoteliminateitandthusthelong-distancetransportsectorisalsoevolvinginthefaceofnewtechnologiesandtheimperativetoreducecarbonemissions.Forexample,driverlessfreightusingautonomoustrucksmaybecomearealityinthenext10to15years,improvingdeliverytimes,andreducingtrafficcongestion,operatingcostsandaccidents.433Meanwhile,inshipping,manycompaniesareexploringlow-carbonfuels,renewableenergy,andnewshipdesigns(e.g.hullsandpropellors)toincreaseefficiencyandreducecarbonfootprints.434Thesekindsofchangesarealsopropelledbyanincreasingcustomerdemandformoresustainableproductionandmorecustomizedproducts(see‘Consumption’).RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteeandstandards݁ISO/PC317,Privacybydesign•ISO/AWITR31700-2,Consumerprotection–Privacybydesignforconsumergoodsandservices–Part2:UsecasesRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Buildinganewconsensusontrade432.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)433.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)434.Fivefuturetrendsintheshippingindustry(MARINEi,2021)Economy‹›EconomySocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentEconomyForewordNewbusinessmodelsAsdigitalizationhasaccelerated,sohaseconomicconnectedness,leadingtotheemergenceoftoday’sdata-drivendigitaleconomyand,withit,somenewbusinessmodels.DigitalplatformsTheuseofdigitalplatforms(e-commerceplatforms)hasallowedsellerstoconnectdirectlytobuyers,tomakemoreefficientexchanges,andtogaingreateraccesstointernationalmarkets(especiallyinthecaseofSMEs).435Theroleofthe‘middle-man’intheeconomy(e.g.distributorsandphysicalretailers)hasbeentransformedandmayeventuallybecomeredundant.436Advanceduptakeoftechnologiessuchas‘Artificialintelligence’and‘Blockchain’arespurringthistrendandtheexpansionanddiversificationofdigitalplatformsisexpectedtosteadilyincreaseoverthenexttenyears.437Becausethesedigitalplatformshavetheabilitytocollectdataatamassivescale,thereisgrowingconcernthatlargedigitalplatformsarealreadycreatingmonopolisticorundesirablemarketconditionsandthatbetterregulationandglobaldatagovernanceareneededtocombatthis.438,439435.Globaltrends2040.Amorecontestedworld(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2021)436.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)437.Digitalmegatrends.Aperspectiveonthecomingdecadeofdigitaldisruption(CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation,2019)438.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)439.DigitalEconomyReport2021.Cross-borderdataflowsanddevelopment:Forwhomthedataflow(UNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,2021)Relatedtrends:5G,Blockchain,Customizedproducts,Cyber-vulnerability,Dataprivacy,Diversifyinginequalities,Riseofthemiddleclass,Servicesmovingonline,SpreadoftheInternet,Sustainableproduction,UrbanizationEconomy‹›EconomySocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentEconomyForewordSharingeconomyOnenotablenewbusinessmodelthathasbeenmadepossiblebydigitalplatformsisthesharingeconomy(alsocalledthe‘gig’or‘peer-to-peer,P2P’economy),whichreferstoamodelofcollaborativeconsumptionwherepeoplecanuseorconsumeaproductorservicewithouttakingfullownership(i.e.theownerofthatresourcesharesit),allowingpeopletoredistributeandmakeuseofexcesscapacityofgoodsorservicesintheeconomy.440Transactionsareusuallyfacilitatedbyadigitalplatform–Uber,theride-sharingapp,andAirbnb,theonlinemarketplaceforaccommodation,aresomewell-knownexamples.Thesharingeconomyisexpectedtogrowsignificantlyoverthenexttenyears(withapredicted35%growthperyearinEurope)441andthisgrowthisdrivenbysocietalandenvironmentaltrendssuchas‘Urbanization’,consumerdemandfor‘Sustainableproduction’and‘Consumption’,and‘Naturalresourcescarcity’.442,443440.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)441.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)442.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)443.BeyondtheNoise.TheMegatrendsofTomorrow’sWorld(Deloitte,2017)444.BitcoinUsesMoreElectricityThanManyCountries.HowIsThatPossible?(NewYorkTimes,2021)445.Globaltrends2040.Amorecontestedworld(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2021)446.Widespreadm-paymentadoptioninAfricainspiresgrowinginterestincryptocurrencies(Nielsen,2021)447.CentralBankDigitalCurrencyTracker(AtlanticCouncil,2022)DigitalcurrenciesAlongsidechangesinhowpeoplebuyandsellgoodsandservices,theemergenceofdigitalcurrenciesischangingthewaypeoplepayforthem.Digitalcurrenciesincludecryptocurrencies,virtualcurrenciesandcentralbankdigitalcurrencies(CBDC).Today,themostpopulardigitalcurrenciesarecryptocurrencieslikeBitcoin,whichuse‘Blockchain’technologytoverifytransactions(inaveryenergy-intensivemanner).444However,itispredictedthatdigitalcurrencieswillgainwideracceptanceoverthenext20yearsasmorecentralbanksbegintoissuethemtosupplementorreplacefiat(physical)currencies.445Developingcountries,particularlyinAfrica,havealreadyshownahugeinterestindigitalcurrencies,drivenbythehighuseofmobile-bankingservicesandyoungconsumers.NigerialaunchedAfrica’sfirstCBDC,theeNaira,inOctober2021.446China,SouthAfricaandSwedenareamongst14countriespilotingaCBDCand,asofJanuary2022,87countries(makingupover90%ofglobalGDP)areexploringaCDBC(upfromonly35countriesinMay2020).447Economy‹›EconomySocietyEconomyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentEconomyForewordTheadvantagesofdigitalcurrenciesincludethattheyarecheapertoadministratethanfiatcurrencyandallowfasterandlower-costtransactions(bycuttingoutintermediaries).Theirdisadvantagesincludethattheycouldenabletheshadoweconomybyfacilitatingthemovementoffundsbycriminalorganizations,theyarevulnerabletohacking,andcanbevolatileinvalue.448,449Strongregulationwillthereforebeneededtocontroltheimpactsofdigitalcurrencies.RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC68/AG5,Digitalcurrencies݁ISO/TC68/SC2,FinancialServices,security•ISO23195:2021,Securityobjectivesofinformationsystemsofthird-partypaymentservices݁ISO/TC68/SC8,Referencedataforfinancialservices•ISO24165-1:2021,Digitaltokenidentifier(DTI)–Registration,assignmentandstructure–Part1:Methodforregistrationandassignment•ISO24165-2:2021,Digitaltokenidentifier(DTI)–Registration,assignmentandstructure–Part2:Dataelementsforregistration݁ISO/TC321,TransactionassuranceinE-commerce•ISO/CD32111.2,TransactionassuranceinE-commerce–PrinciplesandFramework݁ISO/TC324,Sharingeconomy•ISO42500:2021,Sharingeconomy–GeneralprinciplesRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Thesharingeconomycreatesamoresustainableworld•ISO-Acommonlanguagefordigitalcurrency•ISO-Thedown-lowondigitalcurrency•ISO-NewISOsolutiontosupportthesharingeconomy448.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsandtheFuture,2017)449.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)Economy‹›Politics݁PowertransitionPoliticsSocietyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentForewordEconomyMultipolarityDeclineofmultilateralismRegionalizationAstheworldmovestowardsmultipolarity,somepredictadeclineofmultilateralismasinternationalcoordinationbecomesmoredifficult.Othersseemultipolarityasapotentialdriverofincreasedinterstatecooperation,forcingcountriestoformalliancestocounteractfragmentation.Ineithercase,regionalalliancesarelikelytobecomestrongerandtheregionalizationthatisalreadyevidentintradestatisticswillprobablycontinue.MultipolarityItislikelythat,inthenext20years,therewillbenosinglestatethatcandominateallregionsoftheworldoralldomainsofinfluence.TherelativepowerofcountriessuchasChinaandIndiaisincreasingwithrespecttoexistingpowerssuchasEurope,theUSandRussia.Alongsidethese,emergingpowerssuchasBrazil,Indonesia,Mexico,Nigeria,TurkeyandVietnam,willalsoincreasinglyexerttheirinfluenceataregionalandgloballevel.450Thenatureoftherelationshipsbetweenthesecountrieswillbekeytodeterminingthekindofinternationalorderthatwillemerge–ifideologicaldifferencesanddivisionsovermodelsofgovernancegrow,thenthiscouldfostercompetitioninsteadofcooperationand”theintensityofcompetitionforglobalinfluenceislikelytoreachitshighestlevelsincetheColdWar”.451Butthisglobalinfluencewillnotbedecidedprimarilybymilitaryandeconomicpower,butbytradeflows,aidandtechnologytransfers,plusthenumberandqualityofbilateralrelationships.452Whatthismultipolaritymeansforglobalgovernanceisnotyetclear(see‘Declineofmultilateralism’).450.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)451.GlobalTrends2040.Amorecontestedworld(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2021)452.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EUStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)Relatedtrends:Changingtradepatterns,Declineofmultilateralism,UrbanizationPowertransitionPolitics‹›PoliticsSocietyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentForewordEconomyDeclineofmultilateralismThemultilateralsystemputinplaceafterWorldWarIIwasdesignedtofostercooperationbetweencountriesandimprovetheirabilitytopursuecommongoalsandtackleglobalchallenges.Buttheseinstitutionsmaynolongerbefitforpurposeinamultipolarworldandtherearealreadyserioussignsofweaknessesinthesystem(asdemonstratedbytheresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemic).453Asglobalpowerbecomesmorediffused,itmaybecomeevenmoredifficulttoreachagreementbetweencountrieswithininternationalinstitutionssuchastheUnitedNations.Asaresult,theuniversalistapproachtointernationallawandhumanrightscouldbechallenged–“withcompetinglocalandregionalunderstandingsofinternationalnormslikelytoprevail”.454Ifinternationalinstitutionsareweakenedorevencollapse,responsestoglobalchallengessuchasclimatechange,povertyortechnologygovernancewillbecomemoreuncertain.455Theriseinnationalism,protectionismandpopulisminsomecountrieshasbeenlinkedtothissenseofincreaseduncertaintyaboutmultipolarityanditseffectsonmultilateralism.456453.TheGlobalRisksReport2021(WorldEconomicForum,2021)454.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)455.TheGlobalRisksReport2021(WorldEconomicForum,2021)456.GlobalTrendsto2030.ChallengesandchoicesforEurope(EUStrategyandPolicyAnalysisSystem,2019)Relatedtrends:Multipolarity,ChangingtradepatternsPolitics‹›PoliticsSocietyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentForewordEconomyNevertheless,thereisadistinctlackofagreementonwhichwaythistrendwillgo–evenifinstitutionsareweakened,somearguethatmultilateralismwillcontinue,potentiallyinamodifiedforminvolvingcompanies,civilsociety,governmentsandinternationalinstitutions(multi-stakeholdermultilateralism).Themajorityofcountriesmaycontinuetoseevalueininternationalinstitutionsand,eveniftheirreformischallenging,theseinstitutionscouldcontinuetoexistandremaininfluential.457RegionalizationIfglobalizationhasslowedorstalled,thenithasarguablybeenreplacedbyregionalization–countriesaretradingmoreandbecomingmoreinterdependentwiththoseingeographicalproximitytothem.458Regionalalliancesareformingoutofeconomicpragmatism,tostrengthensecurity,andtoincreaseregionalresiliencetoglobalshocksorcrises.459However,thereisariskthatasintegrationwithinregionsincreases,divisionsbetweenregionscouldgrow,especiallyifnationalismcontinuestoflourishandleadstomoreprotectionistpolicies.460457.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)458.GlobalConnectivityOutlookto2030(WorldBank,2019)459.GlobalTrendsandthefutureofLatinAmerica.WhyandhowLatinAmericashouldthinkaboutthefuture(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Inter-AmericanDialogue,2016)460.FutureOutlook.100GlobalTrendsfor2050(UAEMinistryofCabinetAffairsfortheFuture,2017)Relatedtrends:DeclineofmultilateralismPolitics‹›Science݁BiotechnologyScienceSocietyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentForewordEconomyGeneeditingSyntheticbiologyBiotechnologyuseslivingorganismsandbiologicalsystemstocreatenewproducts.Overthelast50years,thisfieldhasdevelopedrapidlybecauseofadvancesingeneticengineeringthatallowscientiststomakechangestoorganisms’DNA.Newmethodsofgeneticmodificationhaveledtorapidadvancesingeneeditingandtestingandhavealsobecomemuchmoretargeted,quicker,andcheaper.AccordingtotheUSNationalIntelligenceCouncil,“biotechnologiesareataninflectionpoint[…]turningsciencefictionintoreality.”461Withinthebroadcategoryofbiotechnology,therearemanyemergingdevelopmentsthatarementionedbelow(andmany,manymorethatwedonothavespacetocover).Althoughitliesatthecrossroadsbetweenthecategoriesofscienceandtechnology,biotechnologyisincludedinthe‘Science’categoryherebecauseitsfoundationsareinscientificresearchandexperimentation–anditoverlapswithmanyotherscientificfieldssuchasmolecularbiology,biochemistry,andgenomics.Nevertheless,alotofthedevelopmentsmentionedherehavestronglinkstoothertrendsinthetechnologycategory(e.g.‘Artificialintelligence’).Whileinternationalstandardizationisnostrangertothefieldofbiotechnology(ISO/TC276,Biotechnology,wascreatedbackin2013),thepaceofdevelopmentinthisfieldandthebreadthofitsapplicationsmeansthatthisisanareatowatchforemerging-marketneeds.461.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)BiotechnologyScience‹›ScienceSocietyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentForewordEconomyGeneeditingAdvancesingeneeditingcouldpotentiallyleadtoenormousbreakthroughsinhumanhealth,agriculturalandindustrialproductivity,andsustainability.Technologiessuchasclusteredregularlyinterspacedshortpalindromicrepeats(CRISPR)havetransformedthisfield,byenablingextensivegenomeeditingandallowingscientiststopreciselyeditDNAusingabacterialenzyme.462Geneeditingcouldleadtosignificantimprovementsinhumanhealthandmedicinebyeliminatinghereditarydiseases(bymodifyingorreplacingillness-causinggenes),providingmoreeffectiveandtargetedtreatmentsfordiseasessuchascancer,andeliminatingcausesofdisease(e.g.malarialcarryingmosquitoes).463,464Asgeneeditingtechnologiesbecomefasterandcheaper,theywillfostertheshifttowardspersonalizedmedicine.465Theycouldevenallowthetransplantofanimalorgansintohumans–inOctober2021,asignificantstepwasmadetowardsanimal-to-humantransplantsassurgeonsintheUStestedthetransplantofageneticallymodifiedpigkidneyonadeceasedrecipient.466,467Applyingbiotechnologysuchasgeneeditingtofoodproductionhasthepotentialtosignificantlyincreasethesustainabilityoffoodproductionbyboostingagriculturalyieldswhilereducinglandandwateruse,increasingthenutritionalcontentoffood,andincreasingcrop462.2021Techtrendsreport.Strategictrendsthatwillinfluencebusiness,government,education,mediaandsocietyinthecomingyear(FutureTodayInstitute,2021)463.20newtechnologytrendswewillseeinthe2020s(BBCScienceFocusMagazine,2020)464.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)465.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)466.GlobalTrends2020.UnderstandingComplexity(Ipsos,2020)467.Surgeonssuccessfullytestpigkidneytransplantinhumanpatient(TheGuardian,2021)Relatedtrends:Ageingpopulation,Artificialintelligence,Ethicsoftechnology,SyntheticbiologyScience‹›ScienceSocietyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentForewordEconomyresilience(resistancetopestsandsevereweather).Evenmeat-eatingcouldbecomesustainableiftheuseofCRISPRtechnologycanmaketheprocessofgrowingmeatinthelabmuchcheaperandmoreefficient.468Allthesefactorswillbeincreasinglyimportanttoguaranteefoodsecurityforpopulationsdealingwiththeeffectsofclimatechange.469Broadersustainabilityimpactscouldresultfromtheapplicationofgeneeditingtechnologiestocreatemicrobesthatcanproducebiofuels,newconstructionmaterials,biodegradableplasticsandmore.470Forexample,citiesofthefuturecouldpotentiallybelitup(atnocostandwithnoemissions)bybioluminescentalgae,orplantsthathavebeenengineeredtoglowthroughtheadditionofgenesforfluorescentproteinsfromthesealgaeorjellyfish.468.Memphismeatsusescrisprtocreaterealmeatfromanimalcells(Trendhunter,2019)469.Globaltrends.Paradoxofprogress(USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,2017)470.Futuretechnologyforprosperity.HorizonscanningbyEurope’stechnologyleaders(EuropeanCommission,2019)471.GlobalStrategicTrends.Thefuturestartstoday(UKMinistryofDefence,2018)Nevertheless,therearemoralandethicalquestionsthatwillariseasgeneeditingtechnologiesbecomemoreadvancedandwhereitmaybedifficulttofindinternationalconsensus.471Humanaugmentation(enhancinghumanphysicalorcognitiveabilities),thesafetyofgeneticallymodifiedfoodoranimals,thelarge-scalecollectionandstorageofgeneticdata,andthepossibilitythatgeneeditingtechnologiescouldbeusedtocreatetargetedbiologicalweapons–theseareallissueslikelytoraisedivisivepoliticaldebates.Science‹›ScienceSocietyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentForewordEconomyRelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC276,Biotechnology•ISO5058-1:2021,Biotechnology–Genomeediting–Part1:Vocabulary•ISO20387:2018,Biotechnology–biobanking–Generalrequirementsforbiobanking•ISO/TR22758:2020,Biotechnology–biobanking–ImplementationguideforISO20387݁ISO/TC34/SC16,Horizontalmethodsformolecularbiomarkeranalysis•IWA32:2019,Screeningofgeneticallymodifiedorganisms(GMOs)incottonandtextiles݁ISO/TC215/SC1,Genomicsinformatics•ISO/TS22693:2021,Genomicsinformatics–StructuredclinicalgenefusionreportinelectronichealthrecordsRelevantISOnewsstories•ISO-Injectingqualityintobiobanks•ISO-ThenewdawnofdiseasecontrolScience‹›ScienceSocietyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentForewordEconomySyntheticBiologySyntheticbiologyreferstotheuseofcertaintoolsandapproacheswithinbiotechnologytocreatenewbiologicalpartsorsystems,foraspecificpurpose.Thesetoolsmayincludegeneeditingandthereiscertainlyoverlapandblurredlinesbetweenthesetwotrends.However,thescaleofDNAchangesintroducedinsyntheticbiologyisgenerallylarger,andsyntheticbiologyalsoincorporatesthefieldsofengineering,design,andcomputerscience.AconsensusdefinitiondraftedbyagroupofEuropeanexpertsdefinedsyntheticbiologyasfollows:Syntheticbiologyistheengineeringofbiology:thesynthesisofcomplex,biologicallybased(orinspired)systems,whichdisplayfunctionsthatdonotexistinnature.Thisengineeringperspectivemaybeappliedatalllevelsofthehierarchyofbiologicalstructures−fromindividualmoleculestowholecells,tissues,andorganisms.Inessence,syntheticbiologywillenablethedesignofbiologicalsystemsinarationalandsystematicway.472TheemergingglobalmarketforsyntheticbiologywasestimatedtobeworthUSD11billionin2018andtogrowby24%by2025.473Severalnotabletrendsinsyntheticbiologyinclude474:•mRNAvaccines:Insteadofusingbitsofaliveordeadvirus,thesevaccinesintroducemRNAmoleculesthatcausethebody’sowncellstoproduceaprotein,whichthenelicitsanimmuneresponse.ThemRNAvaccinesforCOVID-19approvedinDecember2020(PfizerandModerna)werethefirstevermRNAvaccinestobemarketed.Inadditionthistypeofvaccinehashugepromisebecauseitisquickertodesignandtestandcanbemadesynthetically,withoutculturedcell-lines.472.SyntheticBiology.ApplyingEngineeringtoBiology:ReportofaNESThigh-levelexpertgroup(EuropeanCommission,2005)473.Futurepossibilitiesreport2020(UAEGovernment,2020)474.2021Techtrendsreport.Strategictrendsthatwillinfluencebusiness,government,education,mediaandsocietyinthecomingyear(FutureTodayInstitute,2021)Relatedtrends:Artificialintelligence,Ethicsoftechnology,Geneediting,ThreatenedecosystemsScience‹›ScienceSocietyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentForewordEconomy•Organoidsandorgans-on-chips:Organoidsaretinyinvitroorgansgrownfromhumanstem-cells.Theseallowscientiststostudyhowhumantissuerespondstodrugs,viruses,andotherstimuliinvitro.Organs-on-chips(ormicro-physiologicalsystems)areusedforthesamepurposebutareengineeredsystemswherecellsfromorgansaregrownonachip(insteadofinculture),whichallowsforamuchmoreprecisecontrolofthecellsandtheirmicro-environment.Thiscanleadtothedevelopmentofmuchmoreadvancedinvitromodelsofhumansystems.•DNAmemory:In2018,scientistsdiscoveredhowtocreaterandomaccessmemory(RAM)onDNAatscale.In2020,ChinesescientistsatTianjinUniversitystored445kBofdatainacellontheE.colibacterium.Currentmagneticoropticaldata-storagesystemsrequirehugeamountsofspaceandenergy.UsingDNAasamediumforstoringdatacouldpotentiallysolvefuturedata-storageproblems,asDNAdatastorageisdurableandhundredsofterabytesofcapacitycouldbestoredinapill-sizedcontainer.RelevantISOtechnicalcommitteesandstandards݁ISO/TC276,Biotechnology•ISO20688-1:2020,Biotechnology–Nucleicacidsynthesis–Part1:Requirementsfortheproductionandqualitycontrolofsynthesizedoligonucleotides•ISO/TS23565:2021,Biotechnology–Bioprocessing–Generalrequirementsandconsiderationsforequipmentsystemsusedinthemanufacturingofcellsfortherapeuticuse݁ISO/TC34/SC16,Horizontalmethodsformolecularbiomarkeranalysis•ISO20688-1:2020,Biotechnology–Nucleicacidsynthesis–Part1:RequirementsfortheproductionandqualitycontrolofsynthesizedoligonucleotidesScience‹›Wheretofromhere?Wheretofromhere?SocietyPoliticsScienceWheretofromhere?TechnologyEnvironmentEconomyForewordThepurposeofthisreportistogetyouthinkingaboutthetrendsthatwillshapethefuture.Wehaveprovidedahigh-leveloverviewofhowtheworldischangingandhowthefutureisemerging,linkingthistotheworkcurrentlyunderwayinISO’stechnicalcommittees.Thetrendswehavecoveredarediverse,andyet,thenumberofinterlinkagesbetweenthemdemonstratesthattheyareallconnected.Whatisclearisthatwecannotunderstandthefuturebythinkinginsilos;itistheinteractionsbetweenthesedriversofchangethatwillshapetheworldintheyearstocomeandthatwillprovidebothchallengesandopportunitiesforstandardization.Thefuturedoesn’tstandstill:ContinuationofenvironmentalscanningBecausethetrendspresentedinthisreportarehigh-levelandlong-termdrivingforces,theydohavesomedegreeoflongevity.Buttheyareneverthelessincontinualevolutionandwillnodoubtinteractinunpredictableways,leadingtochangingtrajectories.TheenvironmentalscanningphaseoftheISOForesightFrameworkthereforedoesnotendwiththisreport.TheISO/CSR&IUnitwillcontinuetoreviewnewtrendreportsandanalyzeastheyarepublished,withaviewtoupdatingthistrendreportandpublishinganewedition,asnecessary.ISOStandardizationForesightFrameworkTrendReport2022Wheretofromhere?InternationalOrganizationforStandardizationISOCentralSecretariatCh.deBlandonnet8CasePostale401CH–1214Vernier,GenevaSwitzerland©ISO,2022–PublicAllrightsreservediso.org