中国能源转型展望2021China Energy Transformation Outlook2021王仲颖Zhongying Wang中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所Energy Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research2021-11-10Outline◼ 研究背景Research background◼ 模型方法Modelling method◼ 情景设定Scenarios◼ 发展展望Development outlook◼ 发展建议Development suggestions“能源是无可替代的。现代生活完全是架构于能源之上的。能源是与空气、水和土 地 等 同 的 要素”。2019年的全球人均能源消费Energy consumption per capita in 2019能源与现代社会发展关系The relationship between energy and development of modern society"Energy is irreplaceable as modern life is completely structured on the basis of energy, an essential factor just as important as air, water and land."Theodore W. Schultz03单位：千瓦时 / Unit: kWh70.772.276.268.556.8 0%20%40%60%80%100%19781980199020002020一次能源消费结构（%）原煤（Coal）原油（Oil）天然气（Gas）一次电力（H&N）煤炭占比实现大幅下降，但依然占据主导地位：1978年以来中国煤炭占比下降了近14个百分点，但2020年煤炭占比依然超过56.8%，需要主动、创新实施能源系统性变革。化石能源依然占据主导Fossil energy still remains the dominant source of energyDespite a significant decline in the share of coal, it still holds a dominant share in total primary energy consumption:Although the share of coal has decreased by nearly 14 percentage points in China since 1978, it still accounted for over 56.8% as of 2020. It is therefore imperative that we take the initiative, in innovative ways, to reform the energy system.01000002000003000004000005000006000001978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 20201978-2020年一次能源消费总量（104tce）07Total primary energy consumption 1978-2020 (10 ⁴ tce)Total primary energy structure (%)(Primary electricity) 化石能源依然占据主导Fossil fuels still hold a dominant share082020 China ...
