BYEDMUNDDOWNIEAUGUST2021GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESABOUTTHECENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYTheCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicyatColumbiaUniversitySIPAadvancessmart,actionableandevidence-basedenergyandclimatesolutionsthroughresearch,educationanddialogue.Basedatoneoftheworld’stopresearchuniversities,whatsetsCGEPapartisourabilitytocommunicateacademicresearch,scholarshipandinsightsinformatsandontimescalesthatareusefultodecisionmakers.Webridgethegapbetweenacademicresearchandpolicy—complementingandstrengtheningtheworld-classresearchalreadyunderwayatColumbiaUniversity,whileprovidingsupport,expertise,andpolicyrecommendationstofosterstronger,evidence-basedpolicy.Recently,ColumbiaUniversityPresidentLeeBollingerannouncedthecreationofanewClimateSchool—thefirstinthenation—totacklethemosturgentenvironmentalandpublichealthchallengesfacinghumanity.Visitusatwww.energypolicy.columbia.edu@ColumbiaUEnergyABOUTTHESCHOOLOFINTERNATIONALANDPUBLICAFFAIRSSIPA’smissionistoempowerpeopletoservetheglobalpublicinterest.Ourgoalistofostereconomicgrowth,sustainabledevelopment,socialprogress,anddemocraticgovernancebyeducatingpublicpolicyprofessionals,producingpolicy-relatedresearch,andconveyingtheresultstotheworld.BasedinNewYorkCity,withastudentbodythatis50percentinternationalandeducationalpartnersincitiesaroundtheworld,SIPAisthemostglobalofpublicpolicyschools.Formoreinformation,pleasevisitwww.sipa.columbia.eduForafulllistoffinancialsupportersoftheCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicyatColumbiaUniversitySIPA,pleasevisitourwebsiteathttps://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/partners.SeebelowalistofmembersthatarecurrentlyinCGEP’sVisionaryAnnualCircle.Thislistisupdatedperiodically.AirProductsAnonymousJayBernsteinBreakthroughEnergyLLCChildren’sInvestmentFundFoundation(CIFF)OccidentalPetroleumCorporationRayRothrockKimberlyandScottSheffieldTellurianInc.GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESBYEDMUNDDOWNIEAUGUST2021ColumbiaUniversityCGEP1255AmsterdamAve.NewYork,NY10027energypolicy.columbia.edu@ColumbiaUEnergyENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST20213GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESEdmundDownieisanon-residentfellowatCGEPandanincomingPhDstudentinpublicaffairswithinthePrograminScience,Technology,andEnvironmentalPolicyatthePrincetonSchoolofPublicandInternationalAffairs.HepreviouslyworkedintheenergyandfinancepracticeareasattheAnalysisGroupinBostonandservedasaFulbrightScholarinChina(YunnanUniversity).HereceivedanMPhilininternationalrelationsfromNuffieldCollege,OxfordasaMarshallScholar.ABOUTTHEAUTHORThispaperbenefitedenormouslyfrominsightsandassistancefromanumberofcolleaguesatCGEPandbeyond.ExchangeswithShengYan,KevinTu,PhilippeBenoit,EricaDowns,JulioFriedmann,ZhiyuanFan,andAndersHovehelpedmerefinemyideas,asdidcommentsfromtwointernalandthreeexternalanonymousreviewers.LiuHongqiao’sTwitterfeed(@LHongqiao)wasago-toresourceformeinkeepingupwiththemostimportantChineseclimatepolicypronouncements.JamieWebster,LaurieFitzmaurice,BarbaraFinamore,andSusanTierneyweregenerousinlinkingmewithpotentialinterviewees.AndreaBrody-Barre,ChristinaNelson,andMatthewRobinsonshepherdedthispaperthroughtheeditorialprocesswithgraceandthoughtfulfeedback.GennaMortonandKyuLeedidwonderfulworktohandlethepaper’slaunch.AndDavidSandalow,ofcourse,helpedonallofthesefronts.Hewasinstrumentalinguidingthispaperfromstarttofinish.ThanksgoaswelltoJasonBordoff,David,Laurie,MelissaLott,andtherestoftheCGEPleadershipforwelcomingmeintothecommunitythisyear.Ithasbeenawonderfulhomeformethesepastmonths,andafountainoflessonsaboutclimateresearchforpolicyimpact.IhopetocarrythoselessonswithmeasIbeginmyPhD.Thisreportrepresentstheresearchandviewsoftheauthor.ItdoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicy.Thepapermaybesubjecttofurtherrevision.ThisworkwasmadepossiblebysupportfromtheCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicy.Moreinformationisavailableathttps://energypolicy.columbia.edu/about/partners.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS4CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESExecutiveSummaryIntroductionBackground:China’sEmissionsProfileChina’sEmissionsbySectorMajorFirmsinCoalGeneration,Steelmaking,andCementCarbonManagementPre-30-60:NationalPolicyandCompanyActionsRaisingAmbition:CorporateCarbonCommitmentsSincethePledgesReviewofFirmandIndustryTargetSettingPost-30-60DriversofFirmandIndustryTargetsSignalsfromEarlyCommitmentsonEmissionsPeakingandReductionConclusionAppendix:SourcesA.EmissionsB.ElectricityC.SteelmakingandCementD.CorporateTargetsE.ListofIntervieweesNotesTABLEOFCONTENTS050709091219252632344547475153545759TABLEOFCONTENTSENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST20215GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESInSeptember2020,Chinaannounceditsintentionstopeakcarbonemissionsby2030andachievecarbonneutralityby2060.Theneutralitygoalinparticularwasabreakthroughforglobalclimateambitions:anet-zerotargetfromtheworld’slargestemitter,responsibleforaroundone-quarterofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.Thetwonewgoals—referredtoinChinesepolicydiscourseasthe“30-60”goals—arenotChina’sfirstpublictargetsonGHGreduction.Theyare,however,thecenterpiecesofanewChineseclimatepolicyinwhichGHGcutsareastandalonegoalratherthananancillarybenefitofmoreimmediateprioritieslikeenergyefficiencyandindustrialupgrading.Priorapproacheshadrequiredlittleengagementfromfirmsincarbonmanagement.Indeed,noneofthelargestChinesefirmsinthecoalpower,cement,andsteelsectorshadpublicizedquantitativetargetsforreducingorcontrollingcarbonemissionsbeforethegovernmentannouncedthe30-60goals.Theyfacedlittlepressuretodoso;authoritiespressedfirmsinclimate-adjacentareaslikereducingairpollutionratherthancarbonmanagement.The30-60announcementappearstomarkabreakfromthisera,forcingfirmstoadjustaccordingly.Thisreport,partoftheChinaEnergyandClimateProgramatColumbiaUniversity’sCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicy,assesseshowChina’shigh-emittingindustrieshaverespondedtothe30-60targetsandtheaccompanyingelevationofclimatewithinnationalpolicypriorities.ItfocusesoncorporateandsectoralemissionsreductiontargetsthroughJune2021among30majorfirmsinthreeofChina’slargestsourcesofdirectemissions:coalpowergeneration,cement,andsteel.Basedonthisstudy,theauthorfindsthefollowing:●Ninemonthsafterthe30-60announcement,target-settingeffortsbymajorfirmsandindustryassociationshavebeenmodest:ahandfulofnear-termpeakingpledgesandjustfournet-zeropledgesamongthe30firmsreviewed.Manyfirmsmaybestilladdressinggapsincarbonmanagementexpertiseandwaitingforfurtherpoliciesandpronouncementsthatcanclarifygovernmentexpectationsorestablishofficialframeworksfortarget-setting.●Targetsfromsector-leadingfirmsinelectricitygenerationsuggestapushtocompletetheirongoingshiftfromcoaltorenewablesastheirmainsourceofcapacityadditions.AtleastfourofChina’ssixbiggestcoalpowergeneratorsareaimingtopeakemissionsby2025,andtargetsonexpansionsofnon-coalcapacitycouldcollectivelyrequiresectorleaderstoaddhundredsofgigawattsofrenewablecapacitytotheirportfolios.Theseadditionswillrequireanembraceofsolar,atechnologythatChina’sbiggestpowerproducershavehistoricallyeschewed.Theywillalsorequireinstitutionalreformstoenablethetransitionfromacoal-heavypowersystemwithrigiddispatchprotocolstoalow-carbongridwithflexiblemarketdesigns.●Cementfirmshaveproposeda2023peakingtarget,whileauthoritiesarereportedlytargetinga2025peakingdateforsteel.Thesetargetsaredeceptivelycautious.China’sEXECUTIVESUMMARYGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES6CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAinfrastructure-heavyCOVIDstimulushasdelayedlong-expectedoutputdeclinesineachsector;thepeakingdatesproposedgiveeachsectortimetoabsorbexcessdemand.●Chinesesteelsectorfirmshaveofferedmoremedium-termandlong-termtargetsthantheircoalgenerationorcementcounterparts,including2050neutralitytargetsfromsteel-sectorgiantsBaowuandHebeiIronandSteel.Policypressuresrelatedtoreducingairpollutionandlesseningdependenceonimportsforrawmaterials,aswellasananticipateddeclineinsteeldemand,maybeincentivizingsteelfirmstoissuesuchtargets.●Decarbonizationtargetsissuedorproposedthusfarbythethreehigh-emittingsectorsandtheirleadingfirmsevaluatedinthisreportmayalignwithChina’s2030peakingtarget—themostimmediatefocusofemissionsactionplanningandafairlystraightforwardgoaltomeet.Butachievingneutralityby2060willrequirefargreaterambition—andpolicysignalsthatrewardsuchambition.Observersshouldwatchforthereleaseofkeypolicydocumentsoverthecomingmonths,particularlynationalsectoralfive-yearplansandemissionspeakingactionplans,toseewhetherChineseofficialsaresendingthesignalsneededforfirmstostartratchetinguptheirlong-termambitions.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST20217GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESOnSeptember22,2020,atthegeneraldebateofthe75thsessionoftheUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly,ChinesepresidentXiJinpingannouncedthatChinawould“aimtohaveCO2emissionspeakbefore2030andachievecarbonneutralitybefore2060.”1ThepeakinggoalwasamodestupdateonChina’spriortargetofpeaking“around2030.”2ButtheneutralitygoalwasabreakthroughforChineseandglobalclimateambitions:anet-zerotargetfromacountryresponsibleforaroundone-quarterofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions,morethananyothercountry.3Thenewpeakingandneutralitytargets—oftenidentifiedinChinesepolicydiscussionsasthe“30-60”targets—havebecomecenterpiecesofChineseclimatepolicy.Theyserveaskeyreferencepointsforbothgovernmentandcorporateactorsindefiningthescopeandambitionoftheirclimateactions.TheyalsomarkedabreakfromChina’spriorapproachtoclimatepolicy,whichhaddemandedlittledirectengagementfromfirmsincarbonmanagement.Inthepast,carbonintensitydeclinescameasanancillarybenefitofmoreimmediateprioritieslikeenergyefficiencyandindustrialupgradingthatdeterminedtheactuallandscapeofmandatesandincentivesguidingfirmstrategicdecisions.The30-60targetshaveturnedcarbonemissionscutsintoastand-alonepriorityandforcedfirms’policyexpectationstoshiftaccordingly.Thisreportexaminescorporateandsectoralemissionsreductiontargetsthroughthefirsthalfof2021fromthreeofChina’slargestsourcesofdirectemissions:coalelectricitygeneration,cement,andsteel.Suchtargetscanworkasgreenwashingifunaccompaniedbydeepercorporatecommitmentstocarbonmanagement.Buttheycanalsobepowerfultoolsforfirmstodevelopandimplementthesekindsofdeepercommitments,byscopingemissionsreductionsstrategiesandsettingclearbenchmarkstocoordinatefirm-wideefforts.Theyarelikeyeastinmakingbread:invaluableintherightenvironment.ThereportfindsthatnoneofthelargestChinesefirmsinthecoalgeneration,cement,andsteelsectorshadpublicizedquantitativetargetsforreducingorcontrollingcarbonemissionsbeforethe30-60pledgeswereannounced.CorporateinactionreflectedChineseauthorities’policypriorities,whichemphasizedmeetingnationalcarbongoalsthroughprogressinclimate-adjacentareaslikeenergyefficiencyratherthancarbonmanagementitself.ThelimitedarrayofcorporatetargetsreleasedsinceSeptembersuggeststhatmanysectormajorsarestillfillinggapsincarbonmanagementexpertiseandwaitingforfurtherpoliciesandpronouncementsthatcanclarifygovernmentexpectationsorestablishofficialframeworksfortargetsetting,ashasbeendoneforenergyefficiencyfromthelate2000s.Nonetheless,thetargetsreleasedthusfardogiveusefulinsightsintohowfirmsareadaptingtothe30-60reality.Incoalgeneration,China’sbiggestfirmshavebeenslowlyshiftingtheirgrowthstrategyoverthepastdecadefromaddingcoalplantstoaddingrenewables.Pledgesfromsectorleaderstopeakemissionsby2025andrampuprenewablecapacityinstallationssuggestapushtocompletethatshiftoverthecomingfiveyears.TheirsuccessinthisworkINTRODUCTION8­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESwillrequireanembraceofsolar,whichtheyhavehistoricallyeschewedinfavoroflarge-scalewindprojectsthatfitwiththeirtraditionalexpertiseinenormousthermalandhydropowerplants.Itwillalsorequirefurtherprogressintacklinginstitutionalchallenges—affectingwindaswellassolar—impedingChina’stransitionfromacoal-heavypowersystemwithrigiddispatchprotocolstoalow-carbongridwithflexiblemarketdesignstoguaranteeenergysecurity.Incementandsteel,meanwhile,targetstopeaksectoralemissionsin2023and2025reflectlong-expectedoutputdeclinesthatarelikelytocomeoncespendingwrapsupfromChina’sinfrastructure-heavyCOVIDstimulus.(Thesteelsector’stargethasbeenreportedbutnotofficiallyconfirmed.)ButthesteelsectorhasalsoledthewayinintroducingneutralitycommitmentstotheChinesecorporateworldwith2050net-zerotargetsfromitstwobiggestcompanies,BaowuandHebeiIronandSteel.Morewidespreadlong-termtargetsettingwithinthesteelsectorreflectsapairofdrivers.Incomparisonwithelectricity,steeldemandisdeclining,anddisruptionsinsteelsuppliesdonothavetheimmediateeconomicimpactsofpoweroutages;thesecircumstancesmaygivesteelfirmsmoreflexibilityintheirlong-termgoalsettingthantheirelectricitypeers.Moregenerally,steelfirmsbenefitfromanarrayofnonclimatepolicyprioritiesinthesectorthatoverlapneatlywithkeyactionsfordecarbonizationlikeboostingscrapsteeluseandexpandingelectricarcfurnacedeployment.Thereportreliesforitsanalysesuponacombinationofquantitativedataanalysisanddocumentreview,aswellas22expertinterviews.4Itisstructuredasfollows:●Section1describesChina’semissionsprofileandidentifiesmajorhigh-emittingsectorsaswellasleadingfirmsinthosesectors.●Section2discussesthestateofcarbonmanagementinChinesehigh-emittingsectorsbeforethe30-60pledges,introducingthepolicyapproachesbywhichChinapursueditsearlierclimatetargetsandtheirsignificanceforChinesefirms.●Section3reviewsemissionspeaking,reduction,andneutralitytargetsasofJuly1,2021,fromChinesefirmssincetheannouncementofthe30-60pledges.Itfurtheranalyzessignalsfromthesetargetsforhowhigh-emittingindustriesandtheirlargestfirmsintendtointegratethepeakingandneutralityprioritieswithintheirownbusinessplans.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST20219GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESTheglobaldrivetonet-zerodemandsdecarbonizationeffortsacrossahostofsectors,fromelectricitygenerationandtransportationtoindustrialprocessesandagriculture.ButvaryingeconomicstructuresacrosscountriescreatevaryingGHGemissionsprofilesthataffectthecontributionofeachsectortonationalemissionsreductionefforts.Thisreportcoversthreecrucialsectors:coalelectricitygeneration,cement,andsteel.Ineach,state-ownedenterprisesplayleadingroles.China’sEmissionsbySectorChinahasnotpublishedofficialdataonitstotalGHGorcarbonemissionssince2014.However,acomparisonofChineseandglobalGHGemissionsperdataintheWorldResourcesInstitute’sClimateAnalysisIndicatorsTool(CAIT)illustratesuniquefeaturesofChina’semissionsprofilethatreflectitscoal-heavypowersystemanditsdominanceinenergy-intensivemanufacturing.CAITdata,presentedinTable1,reportsaroundhalfofglobalemissionsfromenergyuseinelectricityandheatgenerationandmanufacturingandconstruction,aswellasindustrialprocesses.InChina,however,thesesourcescomprisealmostthree-quartersofitsemissions.Chinaaloneisresponsiblefor36.7percentofglobalemissionsfromthesesources,comparedtojust12.9percentofagriculturalandtransportationemissions.(Theseshares,itshouldbenoted,excludeemissionsfrombunkerfuelsaswellaslanduse,land-usechange,andforestry.)BACKGROUND:CHINA’SEMISSIONSPROFILE10­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESTable1:GHGemissionsin2018:Chinavs.world(milliontonsofCO2e)SourceWorldChinaTotalShareTotalShareEnergy:electricityandheat15,59132.8%5,21442.2%Energy:manufacturingandconstruction6,15813.0%2,66721.6%Industrialprocesses2,9036.1%1,1669.4%Transportation8,25817.4%9177.4%Agriculture5,81812.2%6735.4%Energy:fugitiveemissions2,8836.1%6945.6%Energy:buildings2,8836.1%5424.4%Energy:otherfuelcombustion1,4523.1%2842.3%Waste1,6073.4%1981.6%TotalGHGemissions(excludinglanduse,land-usechanges,andforestryandbunkerfuels)47,552100.0%12,355100.0%Electricityandheat+manufacturingandconstruction+industrialprocesses24,65251.8%9,04873.2%ChinashareofworldemissionsEnergyandindustrialprocesses36.7%Transportation11.1%Agriculture11.6%Note:ChinahasnotreportedofficialestimatesofnationalGHGorcarbondioxideemissionstotalsorsectoralbreakdownssince2014.Source:SeeAppendix,SectionA,parti.Inelectricityandheatgeneration,emissionscomeprimarilyfromcoalpowercombustion,boththelargestandmostpollutingsourceofthermalelectricityandheatinChina.Inelectricitygeneration,coalplantscomprisearound50percentofallgenerationcapacityand85percentofthermalgenerationcapacity.5AGreenpeaceanalysisof2016governmentdatafoundthatcoalcovered83percentofheatingenergyinChina,thoughthisfigureislikelytobelowertodaygivenChina’srecentcoal-to-gasheatingconversioncampaignsinnorthernChina.6Electricitygeneratorsarethemselvesmajorplayersintheheatingsector;combinedheat-and-powerplants,forinstance,providehalfofallspaceheatinginnorthernurbanChina.7AmongsourcesofGHGemissionsfromenergyuseinmanufacturingandconstructionandfromindustrialprocesses,themostsignificant—inChinaandaroundtheworld—aresteelmakingandcement.Globally,thesesectorsareestimatedtoeachaccountforaround25percentofdirectindustrialcarbondioxide(CO2)emissions.8InChina,industryparticipantsENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202111GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESsuggestthateachsectorisresponsibleforaround15percentormoreofnationalCO2emissions.9ThesefiguresbroadlyalignwiththoseoftheChinaEmissionsAccountsandDatasetsproject,themostdetailedscholarlybreakdownofsectoralCO2footprintsinChina.Itestimatesthataround30percentofnationalCO2emissionsfromfuelcombustionandcementmanufacturingareattributabletothe“smeltingandpressingofferrousmetals”(primarilysteelmaking)and“nonmetalmineralproducts”(primarilycement).10HowMakingSteelandCementProducesEmissionsSteelisanalloyofironandcarbon,producedbyremovingimpuritiesfromironoreandcombiningitwithothercarbonandsmallamountsofotherelements.11Productiontakesplacebroadlythroughoneoftworoutes.Thefirstrouteisknownastheblastfurnace/basicoxygenfurnaceroute(BF-BoF).Theblastfurnace(BF)reducesironoreintoapurerformofmetalliciron.Ironoreusuallycontainsironbondedwithoxygeninironoxidecompounds,andtheblastfurnacestripstheoxygenatomsinaprocessisknownas“reduction.”Thebasicoxygenfurnace(BoF)takesthemolteniron(“hotmetal”)producedbytheBFandrefinesitintosteel.IroninputsforBoFscanbesupplementedbymodestsharesofrecycledsteel(scrapsteel).Thesecondrouteistheelectricarcfurnace(EAF)route.EAFsoccupyasimilarpositionintheproductionprocesstoBoFsasfacilitiesforrefiningironintosteel,buttheycantakeupto100percentsharesofscrapsteelastheirsourceofiron.MostEAFproductiongloballyreliesprimarilyuponscrapsteel,withsomesupplementationfromvarioustypesofvirginiron—“pigiron”producedbyallowingBFhotmetaltocool,forinstance,ordirectreducediron(DRI)producedoutsideofaBF.TheBF-BoFandEAFroutescanhavesignificantlydifferentemissionsprofiles.HasanbeigiandSpringer(2019),forinstance,estimatenationalaveragesacross16coveragesfrom1.5to2.5ormoretonsofcarbondioxide(tCO2)pertonfortheBF-BoFrouteversus0.3–1.6tCO2/tonforEAFproduction.12ThelargestemissionsdriverintheBF-BoFrouteisthereductionprocessintheblastfurnace,whichinvolvesthecombustionoffossilfuels:usuallyacoalproductcalledcoke,thoughsomeproducersuselesscarbon-intensivenaturalgas.13TheEAFrouteallowsproducerstousemuchhigherscrapshares.Asaresult,EAFproductionrelyingfullyuponscrapcanachieveemissionsfactorsoflessthan0.5tCO2/ton.14ButhighersharesofDRIorpigironinEAFproductioncanraiseemissionsfactorsdramatically.15Cementistheprimarybindingmaterialinconcrete,madebycombiningcalcium-richmaterialslikelimestonewithahostofothermaterials,suchasclayorflyash.DirectCO2emissionscomealmostentirelyfromtheproductionofanintermediateoutputknownasclinker,whichresultsfromheatingtherawmixtureoflimestoneandothermaterials,suchasclaysorshale,inarotatingkiln.16Sixtyto70percentofthesedirectemissionscomefromchemicalreactionsinclinkerformationthatreleaseCO2,and30–40percentfromfuelcombustionforheating.17Therearemodestadditionalindirectemissionsfrom12­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGEStheconsumptionofelectricityforrawmaterialspreparationandotherstagesofthecement-makingprocess.18Carbonemissionsfromsteelandcement,incomparisontoelectricitygeneration,aregenerallyconsideredhardtodisplace.Insteel,scrap-EAFproductioncansubstantiallyreduceemissionsprofilesbutislimitedbyseveralfactors,mostimportantlyscrapsupplyconstraints.19Substitutesforfossilfuels,likelow-carbonhydrogenforBF-BoFproduction,stillrequiresignificantadvancestobecomecostcompetitiveandstillneedtobesupplementedwithcarboncaptureequipmenttoapproachnet-zeroemissions.20Incement,CO2isachemicalby-productofclinkerproduction,andsteepreductionsinemissionsfootprintswillrequirecarboncaptureaswellasmajorR&Dbreakthroughsaroundlow-clinkercement.21TheChinesesteelindustryis,byglobalstandards,particularlycarbonintensive.Worldwide,steelproductiontakesplacelargelythroughoneoftwoprocesses:theblastfurnace-basicoxygenfurnace(BF-BoF)routeortheelectricarcfurnace(EAF).Theformer,whichhasmuchhigheraverageemissions,isfarandawaythedominantmodeofsteelproductioninChina;itcomprisesaround90percentofthecountry’scrudesteeloutput,withEAFsaccountingfortheremaining10percent.Bycontrast,morethan45percentofworldsteelproductionin2019(around400milliontons,ormt)outsideofChinacamefromEAFs.China’stilttowardBF-BoFproductionreflectslimitedscrapsupplyandhighelectricityprices,aswellastheprevalenceofnewer,moreefficientBF-BoFfacilities.EvenChineseEAFsthemselvesarerelativelyhighemitting.HasanbeigiandSpringer(2019)estimatenationalaverageEAFcarbonintensityof0.3–1.6tCO2/tonacross16countries;theyputChina’sEAFsonthehighendofthatrange,at1.4tCO2/ton.22DriversofthesehigheremissionsincludetheuseofelevatedsharesofpigironinplaceofscrapsteelinChineseEAFfeedstocksaswellashighemissionsfactorsforgridpowerinChina.Incoal-firedgeneration,steelmaking,andcement,Chinaproducesanenormousshareofglobaloutput.In2020,theChinaElectricityCouncil(CEC)reported1.08terawattsofinstalledcoalcapacitynationwide,comprising49.1percentofnationalinstalledcapacityandsupplying60.8percentofnationalelectricpower.23China’s2018coalgenerationof4,772terawatt-hours(TWh)equaledmorethan45percentofglobalcoalgeneration.24Asforcementandsteel,Chineseindustrialassociationsreport2.38billiontons(bt)ofcementproductionand1.05btofcrudesteelproductionin2020,indicatingyear-on-yearproductiongrowthforeachcommoditydespitethepandemic.25China’sshareofglobalproductionineachcommodityin2018exceeded50percent.26MajorFirmsinCoalGeneration,Steelmaking,andCementTheprominenceofcoalgeneration,steelmaking,andcementwithinChineseCO2emissionsmakesitparticularlyimportanttotrackdecarbonizationeffortsfromtheirleadingfirms.Chinesemajorsinthesesectorsareglobalmajors.Theyincludetheworld’s5largestownersofcoalcapacitybymegawatts;6oftheworld’s10largeststeelfirmsbyproductiontonnage;and6oftheworld’s10largestcementfirmsbyintegratedproductioncapacity.27ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202113GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESThisreportfocusesontop-10companiesineachsector,definedasfollows:●Coalgeneration:the10ChinesecompanieswiththegreatestinstalledcoalcapacityinJanuary2021pertheGlobalCoalPlantTracker(GCPT),aunit-levelopen-sourcedatabasedevelopedbyGlobalEnergyMonitor.Thisdatabasedoesnotincludeplantsunder30MW.Itrecordedaround1,040gigawatts(GW)oftotalcoalcapacityinChinaasofJanuary2021,justshyofofficialtotalsof1,080GW.●Steelmaking:the10Chinesecompanieswiththegreatestcrudesteeloutputin2019,asreportedbyglobalindustryassociationworldsteel.●Cement:the10companieswiththegreatestinstalledclinker28capacityinChinain2020,asreportedbytheChinaCementAssociation.ThecompaniesarelistedinTable2.Theauthorwasabletoidentifyofficialcoalcapacitycountsforseveraltop-10coalgenerationfirmsfromcompanydocumentsandincludesthisinformationaswell,asthedifferencesarenontrivial.29Ofthe30firmsreviewed,27areChinesefirms:all20coalgenerationfirmsandsteelmakersaswellassevencementfirms.TheremainingthreecementfirmsincludeHuaxin,ajointventurebetweenaforeignfirmandalocalstate-ownedenterprise(SOE);TaiwanCement,aTaiwanesecompanylistedinTaiwan;andAsiaCement(China),aHongKong–listedsubsidiaryoftheTaiwanesecompanyAsiaCementCorporation.NotealsothatShandongWeiqiao,the10th-largestownerofcoalgenerationinChinaperGCPT,isoneofChina’sbiggestaluminumsmelters;itscoalcapacityconsistsprimarily(ifnotentirely)ofcaptivegeneratorsthatpoweritsindustrialfacilities.14­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESTable2:Top10Chinesecompaniesinthermalgeneration,steelmaking,andcementElectricityCompanyControllingownertype(SOE/private/foreign)January2021installedcoalcapacity(GWs)NationalshareChinaEnergyInvestmentCorp.国家能源投资集团有限责任公司CentralSOE140.7(GCPT)188.4(official)13.5%(GCPT)17.4%(official)ChinaHuanengGroup中国华能集团有限公司CentralSOE109.3(GCPT)10.5%(GCPT)ChinaDatangGroup中国大唐集团有限公司CentralSOE86.1(GCPT)8.3%(GCPT)ChinaHuadianGroup中国华电集团有限公司CentralSOE82.5(GCPT)7.9%(GCPT)StatePowerInvestmentCorp.国家电力投资集团CentralSOE65.0(GCPT)77.4(official)6.2%(GCPT)7.2%(official)ChinaResourcesPower华润电力控股有限公司CentralSOE36.1(GCPT)31.9(official)3.5%(GCPT)3.0%(official)ZhejiangEnergyGroup浙江省能源集团ProvincialSOE(Zhejiang)25.3(GCPT)2.4%(GCPT)GuangdongEnergyGroup广东省能源集团有限公司ProvincialSOE(Guangdong)20.5(GCPT)2.0%(GCPT)BeijingEnergyGroup北京能源集团有限责任公司ProvincialSOE(Beijing)17.7(GCPT)1.7%(GCPT)ShandongWeiqiao山东魏桥Private17.5(GCPT)1.7%(GCPT)SteelmakingCompanyControllingownertype(SOE/private/foreign)2019crudesteeloutput(mt)NationalshareChinaBaowuIronandSteelGroup中国宝武钢铁集团有限公司CentralSOE95.59.6%HebeiIronandSteelGroup河钢集团有限公司ProvincialSOE(Hebei)46.64.7%JiangsuShagangGroup江苏沙钢集团有限公司Private41.14.1%AnsteelGroup鞍钢集团有限公司CentralSOE39.23.9%BeijingJianlongHeavyIndustryGroup北京建龙重工集团有限公司Private31.23.1%ShougangGroup首钢集团有限公司ProvincialSOE(Beijing)29.32.9%continuedonnextpageENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202115GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESCompanyControllingownertype(SOE/private/foreign)2019crudesteeloutput(mt)NationalshareShandongIronandSteelGroup山东钢铁集团有限公司ProvincialSOE(Shandong)27.62.8%HunanValinIronandSteelGroup湖南华菱钢铁集团有限责任公司ProvincialSOE(Hunan)24.32.4%BengangGroup本钢集团有限公司ProvincialSOE(Liaoning)16.21.6%LiaoningFangdaGroup辽宁方大集团实业有限公司Private15.71.6%CementCompanyControllingownertype(SOE/private/foreign)2020installedclinkercapacity(mtpa)NationalshareChinaNationalBuildingMaterialsGroup中国建材集团有限公司CentralSOE391.221.4%AnhuiConchCement安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司ProvincialSOE(Anhui)215.511.8%TangshanJidongCement唐山冀东水泥股份有限公司ProvincialSOE(Beijing)105.35.8%ChinaResourcesCement华润水泥控股有限公司CentralSOE66.93.7%HuaxinCement华新水泥股份有限公司ForeignwithlocalSOEasminorityshareholder(HuangshiCity,Hubei)63.03.4%HongshiHoldingsGroup红狮控股集团有限公司Private57.23.1%ShandongShanshuiCementGroup山东山水水泥集团有限公司Private54.63.0%TaiwanCement台湾水泥股份有限公司Foreign40.82.2%TianruiCementGroup天瑞水泥集团有限公司Private35.21.9%AsiaCement亚洲水泥（中国）控股公司Foreign22.41.2%Note:InformationfromGlobalEnergyMonitor(GEM)anditsGCPTdatabaseisinsufficienttoidentifyasinglecorporationcorrespondingtoShandongWeiqiao.BaseduponreviewofGEMstaffstatementsaswellascorporaterecordsdatabases,theauthorinfersthislistingreferstoasetofcompaniesownedbytheZhangfamilyincludingChinaHongqiao,oneofChina’slargestaluminumproducers.TheGEMdatabaseisbaseduponopen-sourcedocumentreviewandonlyincludesplantsofatleast30MWinsize.InstalledcapacitysharesofcoalunitsreflectGCPTnationalrecordedcoalcapacityforGCPTdata(1043.0GW)andofficialnationalcoalcapacityforfirm-reporteddata(1080.0GW).Source:SeeAppendix,SectionB,partiiandSectionC,partsiiandiii.16­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESAssuggestedbyTable2,state-ownedenterpriseshaveasignificantpresenceineachoftheseindustries.Allofthetopfourcemententerprises(40percentofnationalclinkercapacity)and7ofthetop10steelenterprisesareSOEsownedeitherbycentralorprovincialgovernments.Inthesesectors,atleast,thereissignificantprivateparticipationacrossthesectorasawhole.TheChinaChamberofCommerceforMetallurgicalEnterprises,comprisedprimarilyofprivateironandsteelfirms,reportedthatprivatefirmsaccountedformorethan60percentofcrudesteeloutputin2020.30Butcoalelectricitygenerationisalmostentirelyinthehandsofstate-ownedenterprises.A2015analysisfromtheClimatePolicyInitiative,usingdatafrom2013,found94percentofinstalledcoalpowercapacitytobeownedbySOEs.31FivecentrallyownedSOEs—the“Big5”(五大发电集团)—areparticularlypowerfulinthermalgeneration:●ChinaEnergyInvestmentCorporation(CEIC),whichisalsoChina’slargestcoalproducer32●ChinaHuanengGroup●ChinaHuadianGroup●ChinaDatangGroup●StatePowerInvestmentCorporation(SPIC)Officialreportedcapacitybysourcefromthesecompanies,showninTable3below,indicatesthattheyhadthermalholdingsequivalenttohalfofnationalthermalcapacityasof2019.33(Thermalincludescoal,gas,oil,andbiomassandisnotgenerallybrokenoutinfirms’reporting.34)Theseassetscomprisethebulkoftheirholdingsat69percentofcollectiveinstalledcapacity;thebalancecomesmostlyfromhydropowerandwind(13–14percenteach).Theonefirmwithathermalsharebelowtwo-thirdswasSPIC,whichisboththeonlymemberoftheBig5withsubstantialsolarholdings(13percent)andtheonlyactivenucleardeveloper.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202117GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESTable3:“Big5”electricitycompanies:installedgenerationcapacitymixin2019CompanyThermalHydroWindSolarNuclearTotalGWsShareGWsShareGWsShareGWsShareGWsShareChinaEnergyInvestmentCorporation国家能源投资集团有限责任公司184.775.1%18.67.6%41.216.7%1.30.5%0.00.0%245.8ChinaHuanengGroup中国华能集团有限公司131.972.1%27.014.8%20.010.9%4.02.2%0.00.0%182.8ChinaHuadianGroup中国华电集团有限公司108.370.8%27.317.8%14.29.3%3.22.1%0.00.0%153.1ChinaDatangGroup中国大唐集团有限公司97.367.5%27.018.7%18.412.8%1.51.0%0.00.0%144.2StatePowerInvestmentCorporation国家电力投资集团81.654.0%24.015.9%19.312.8%19.312.8%7.04.6%151.1AllChina1189.659.2%358.417.8%209.210.4%204.210.2%48.72.4%2010.1Big5only603.768.8%123.914.1%113.112.9%29.33.3%7.00.8%876.9Big5shareofallChina50.8%34.6%54.1%14.3%14.3%43.6%Source:SeeAppendix,SectionB,partsiandii.SOEs’ownershipstatusmeansthatpolicysignalsaroundstatepriorities—centralprioritiesforSOEsownedbythecentralgovernment,provincialprioritiesforprovincialSOEs—areparticularlyimportantfordefiningtheiragenda.Thesefirmsarechargedwithadvancingamixtureofcorporate,state,andpartyinterests;Leutert(2020),writingoncentralSOEs,describestheirleadershipas“simultaneouslycompanyexecutives,governmentbureaucrats,andPartyofficials.”35Insomecases,theleadersthemselvesaretakendirectlyfromgovernmentpositions.ChenDerongofBaowuSteel,China’sbiggeststeelproducer,servedhiswholecareerasanofficialinZhejiangProvince,becomingoneofitstopleadersasamemberoftheProvincialPolitburoStandingCommittee.Heonlyenteredthesteelindustryin2014asadirectorandgeneralmanageratBaowuin2014,beforebecomingchairmanin2018.36WangXiangxiofCEIC,China’sbiggestenergygeneratorandcoalproducer,beganhiscareerinHubei-basedstate-ownedcoalenterprisesbutspentthepasttwodecadesrisingtoseniorpositionsintheHubeiprovincialgovernmentbeforebeingappointedCEICchairmanin2019.37SOEs’mixedprioritiescanhurttheirfinancialperformance;thestate-ownedeconomysaw18­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESa3.9percentreturnonassetsasoftheendof2017,asopposedto9.9percentamongprivatefirms.38Buttheparty-stateseeksabroaderreturnfromSOEsasprovidersofstableemploymentaswellastoolsforpursuingitsstrategicpriorities—asin,forinstance,carbonpolicy.39ChenDerong’spoliticalbackgroundmightbeexpectedtomakehimparticularlysavvyonthisfront,and,indeed,aBaowumeetingreadoutreportshimgivingavividdistillationoftheseobligationsforcentralSOEsatacompanymeetinginApril2021:ChenDerongnoted:GeneralSecretaryXiJinpinghasmadeapromisetotheworldofcarbonpeakingandcarbonneutralityinChina.Thisisamajorstrategicdecisionmadepertheresponsibilityofbuildingacommunityofcommondestinyformankindandtheintrinsicrequirementsofrealizingsustainabledevelopment.…ForChinaBaowu,carbonpeakingandcarbonneutralityarenotjusttechnicalmatters;theyareeconomicmatters,and,evenmoreso,theyarepoliticalmatters.Thesteelindustryistraditionallyahighsourceofcarbonemissions.Asaleadingfirm,ChinaBaowumustapplypressureuponitselfandwillinglytakeaction.Takingtheleadinraisingcarbonpeakingandcarbonneutralitygoalsistheresponsibilitythatindustryleadersshouldshoulder.Itisnotjustforthedevelopmentneedsofthefirmandtheindustry;itisalsothedevelopmentneedsofthenation,andbearsuponthesharedinterestsofhumanity.40(emphasisadded)Thedomesticpoliticalandregulatoryenvironment—inaddition,ofcourse,tocoreeconomicandcompetitivenessconcerns—determinesmuchofthecontextinwhichstate-ownedandprivateChinesecoalgenerators,steelmakers,andcementfirmsconsiderdecarbonizingtheirdomesticoperations.Tightpoliticalcontrolsmakecivilsocietyanonissuebeyondhighlylocalizeddemandsaroundenvironmentalquality,asinantinuclearproteststhatgroundedaproposedprojectin2016.41Channelsforinternationalpressurearelimited.CoalgeneratorsandcementproducersalmostexclusivelyserveChinesecustomers;Chinesecementexportshavehoveredaround0.5percentofdomesticproductionthroughoutthepastdecade,andelectricityexportstakeplaceonlythroughahandfulofmodestconnectionstoChina’sneighbors.42Steelsectorexportsarelargerbutstillcomprisedonly5–10percentofsteelproductionoverthepastdecade.43Inequitymarkets,internationalexposureislargestinthecementsector,withoneforeign-domesticjointventure,aTaiwan-listedfirm,andfivefirmslistedinHongKong.MostofChina’slargestcoalgeneratorsareSOEswhoseHongKong-listedsubsidiariesonlyholdminoritysharesoftheirassets,andjust2ofthelargest10steelproducershaveanyHongKong–listedsubsidiaries.Firms’otherpubliclistingsareonmainlandmarkets,whereinternationalinvestorsareagrowingbutstillminorpresence;UBSinSeptember2019estimatedthatforeignholdingscomprised7.3percentoffree-floatingmarketcapitalizationinthesemarkets.44Dataonotherfinancingchannelsishardertoaccess,butresearchersfromtheGermannongovernmentalorganizationUrgewaldreporta10percentforeignshareinChinesecoalsectorfinancing.(Theirdatabasereliesuponpublicdisclosuresandisthusincomplete.45)ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202119GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESThrough2020,Chinesefirmsinhigh-emittingindustrieshadfairlylimitedexperienceincarbonmanagement.ThislackofexperiencereflectedChina’sapproachtoclimatepolicyoverthepasttwodecades,underwhichChinahasmetitsclimatetargetsasaby-productofmoreimmediatepolicyprioritieslikeeconomicupgrading,energysecurity,andairpollutioncontrol.Chinahashadpublic,long-termcarbonemissionsreductiontargetsformorethanadecade.46Itsfirstsuchtargetwasannouncedatthe2009CopenhagenSummit,agoalofcuttingcarbonintensity(thatis,carbonemissionsperunitofGDP)40–45percentby2020against2005.Similarcarbonintensityreductiontargetswereincorporatedintothecountry’ssubsequentFive-YearPlans(FYPs),whichsetthecountry’soverarchingeconomicdevelopmentprioritiesfortheforthcomingfive-yearperiod.Authoritiessoughta17percentdeclineforthe12thFYP(2011–15)andan18percentdeclineforthe13thFYP(2016–20).47In2015,Chinaalsoannouncedagoalofpeakingemissions“around2030”aspartofitsNationallyDeterminedContributionstotheParisAgreement.48Chineseauthoritieshavereportedsuccessinmeetingtheiremissionsintensityreductiontargetsoverthepast15years.Theyclaima48.1percentcarbonemissionsintensityreductionfrom2005to2019,49includinga20percentreductionduringthe12thFYP50andan18.2percentreductionbetween2015and2019.51ButthepolicytoolsthathavehelpedChinaachievethesetargetshavenotmadeformaldemandsoffirmstomonitorcarbonemissionsandreducetheircarbonfootprints.Thegainshaveratheraccompaniedpolicyinitiativestoimproveenergyefficiency,addressairpollution,andfosteradomesticrenewablesindustry.52Theseinitiativesaddressedamixofpolicyaimsthatincludereducingenergysecurityvulnerabilitiesinahighfossil-fueleconomy,respondingtopublicdissatisfactionoverairpollution,andpositioningChinatoleadglobalsupplychainsinagreen-growthera.53Keymetricsfortheseefforts—energyintensity,forinstance,oremissionsratesforairpollutantslikenitrogenoxides(NOX)andparticulatematter—makenoexplicitdemandsaroundCO2reduction.Buttheydriveavoidedemissionsbyforcingfuelefficiencyupgradesorencouragingreducedeconomicrelianceonhigh-emittingindustries.ThesecondarystandingofemissionsreductioninChineseenvironmentalandeconomicpolicyisevidentfromareviewofChina’spreviousFYP“outlines”(纲要),theheadlinedocumentsthatpresentoverallaimsforeachfive-yearperiod.QuantitativetargetsonenergyintensityreductionandlocalairpollutioncontrolbothappearedinFYPswellbeforecarbonintensity.The9thFYP(1996–2000),forinstance,targetedreducingenergyintensityby22percentbetween1995and2000;the10thFYP(2001–5)soughttoreducemajorairpollutantsby10percentfrom2000;andtargetsforbothappearedinthe11thFYP(2006–10).54Greenhousegas(GHG)emissions,bycontrast,donotfeatureuntilthe11thFYPoutline,whichcallsfor“achievingsuccessincontrollinggreenhousegasemissions”butincludesnoquantitativetargetsorfurtherelaboration.ThementionofGHGstakesplacewithinthechapteron“buildingaresource-savingandenvironmentallyfriendlysociety,”underscoringtheleadingroleofenergyconservationinenvironmentalpolicyatthetime.55CARBONMANAGEMENTPRE-30-60:NATIONALPOLICYANDCOMPANYACTIONS20­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESThe12thFYPintroducedcarbonemissionsintensityreductiontargetsaswellasanewsectionintheoutlineon“activelyconfrontingclimatechange.”Butitcontinuedtorelyuponenergyconsumptioncontrolformeetingthesetargets.Forone,climatediscussiontookplaceagaininthesectionon“buildingaresource-savingandenvironmentally-friendlysociety.”56Moresignificantly,inthe12thFYPoutline’sdiscussionof“controllinggreenhousegasemissions,”energyconsumptioncontrolmeasuresweretheonlydirecttoolsmentionedforreducingshort-termemissions.57Williams(2014),inherreportonChineseclimatepolicydrivers,notesthat“manyofthoseinterviewedforthispapersaidthe12thFiveYearPlancarbonintensitytargetwasdirectlyderivedfromtheenergyintensitytarget.”58Oneofthe12FYP’sothercarbonactionitemswasthe“theconstructionandconsolidationofaGHGemissionsstatisticalcalculationandverificationsystem”—agoalthatunderscoresjusthownewtheissueofcarbonmanagementwaswithinChinaasof2011.ChinafirstintroducedstandardsonGHGemissionsreportingmethodologiesin2013andissueditsfirstrequirementsoncorporatereportingofGHGemissionstoauthoritiesin2014.59Bycomparison,theEUintroducedmandatoryemissionsreportingacrossavarietyofhigh-emittingsectorsinthemid-2000saspartofitsemissionstradingsystem(ETS)launch.60TheUnitedStatesonlymandatednationalGHGreportingfrom2010–11onward,butparticipantsinstate-basedcap-and-tradesystemshavefacedreportingrequirementssincethemid-2000s.61The13thFYP(2016–20)indicatedthebeginningsofagreaterfocusinChinesepolicyaroundcarbonemissionsmanagementasastand-aloneactionarea.Thesectionon“effectivelycontrollinggreenhousegasemissions,”whichhadformerlyfocuseduponenergyconsumption,insteademphasizedkeysectorsforemissionsreductionwork(“energy,steel,buildingmaterials,andpetrochemicals”)andcalledforChinato“advancelow-carbondevelopmentinkeyspheresincludingindustry,energy,construction,andtransit.”62(The12thFYPhadonlyincludedacallto“controlGHGemissionsinspheresincludingindustry,construction,transit,andagriculture.”)63ThesectionalsosaidthatChinawould“supportwell-developedregionsinachievingcarbonemissionspeaksearly.”Nonetheless,policyprioritiesduringthisperiodcontinuedtocenteraroundairpollutioncontrolandenergyefficiency.64Effortsaroundtheformerhadsteppedupfrom2013withthereleaseoftheAirPollutionPreventionandControlActionPlan,whichbackedupparticulatepollutionreductiontargetsof10–25percentforspecificcitieswithahostofmeasures—increasedpriorityforpollutionreductioninbureaucraticperformanceevaluations,forinstance,andprohibitionsonnewcoal-firedpowerplantsinthreehigh-pollutionregions.65LiKeqiangunderscoredthecentralleadership’semphasisonairpollutioncontrolinhisworkreportattheannual“TwoSessions”convocationoftheChineselegislatureinMarchof2014bycomparingittothecorenationaltaskofpovertyalleviation:“wewillresolutelydeclarewaruponpollutioninthesamewaythatwehavedeclaredonpoverty.”66XiJinpingextendedthisframinginhisreporttothe19thPartyCongressin2017,declaringpollutionpreventionandcontrolasoneofthreenational“toughbattles”(攻坚战gongjianzhan)alongsidereducingriskinthefinancialsystemandimplementingtargetedantipovertymeasures.67China’sairqualityeffortsdrove39percentdeclinesinaverageparticulatepollutionexposurenationwidefrom2013to2018,comprisingalmostthree-quartersofsuchdeclinesworldwide.68AuthoritieshaveexpandedtheseeffortsacrossthecountryaspartoftheThree-YearActionPlanforWinningENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202121GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGEStheBlue-SkyWar(2018–20).69Meanwhile,inenergyefficiency,Chinesepolicyduringthe13thFYPpersistedwiththe12thFYP’s“doublecontrol”systemofpairedtargetsforenergyintensityandtotalenergyconsumption,definednationallyand(from2014onward)brokendownintoindividualtargetsforsubnationalgovernments.70ThepoliticalheftofthesetargetswasunderscoredbyextrememeasurestakentomeettheminYiwu,amajorcommercialhubinZhejiangProvince,whichbeganrationingpowerinDecember2020tohelpmeettheprovince’senergyconsumptiontargets.71Similarextremeswereseenontheairpollutionfrontaroundcoal-to-gasheatingconversionsinruralnorthernChina,developedaspartofChina’spollutioncontroleffortsfortheBeijing-Tianjin-Hebeiregion.Arushedrolloutduringtheearly13thFYPperiodcontributedtomillionsofhomeswithoutheatforpartsofthe2017–18winteramidnaturalgasshortages.72A2016InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)reportstatedthatChina’sefficiencypolicieshadbeen“oneofthemostimportantfactorsinlimitingthegrowthofenergy-relatedCO2emissionsanywhereintheworldoverthepastdecade,”driving1.2gigatons(gt)ofavoidedCO2emissionsannuallyby2014ascomparedtobusiness-as-usualprojectionsfrom2000.73Coalgeneration,steelmaking,andcementhaveallcontributedtothesegains.Thecementsectorsawacomprehensivefleetupgradingfromsmall-scaleshaftkilnproductionlinestolargerandmoreefficientprecalcinerkilns.DatacollectedbyLiuetal.(2021)indicatestheprecalcinerkilnssawtheirproductionsharesincreasefrom13percentin2000to44percentby2005and99.8percentby2015.74Thisshifthelpsexplainswhythecementindustry’scoalconsumptionincreasedby46percentfrom2005–14evenasproductionvolumesincreased133percent.75Steelproductionenergyintensityhadby2015fallento572kg/tonfromabove800kg/tonin2000,andHasanbeigiandSpringer’s2019benchmarkingstudyofBF-BoFenergyintensityworldwidefoundChinaasoneoftheworld’smostefficientproducersbythisroute.76China’scoalpowerfleettodayisalso“oneoftheworld’smostefficient”pertheIEA,withaverageplantefficiencyupfrom30percentin2000to39percentin2018.77Meanwhile,outsideofenergyefficiency,furtheravoidedemissionshavecomefromthegrowthofwindandsolarinstallations.Generationsourcesotherthanthermalandhydropowerprovidedjust2.9percentofChineseelectricityin2010;by2020,theyprovided14.4percent,with9.5percentfromwindandsolaralone.78Progressinenergyefficiencyandrenewablesexpansionhavesecurednoteworthyavoidedemissionsoverthepasttwodecades,butthesegainsareofmodestsignificancesetagainstthedramaticexpansioninChina’semissionsduringthesameperiod.PerCAITdata,totalnationalemissions(excludingbunkerfuelsaswellaslanduse,land-usechanges,andforestry)morethandoubled,fromaround4.8gtin2000to11.9gtin2014,anincreaseofmorethan7gt.Thisincreaserepresentedaround60percentoftotalgrowthinworldemissionsduringthoseyears.79Nonetheless,Chineseauthoritieshavenotimposedanycomparablepolicycampaignsordetailedsetsofmandatesdirectlyaroundcarbonemissionsreductionworkduringthepastdecade.Beyondreportingrequirements,Chinesefirms’mainexposuretocarbonmanagementhascomethroughChina’sregionalETSpilots,launchedacrosseightprovincesandcitiesbetween2013and2016.Theserequirementsgaveparticipatingfirmsinitialexpertisein22­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESmonitoring,reporting,andverificationaswellasthebasicsofcarbonallowancetrading.Butprevailingpricelevelsinmostpilotsof40RMB/tonorless(around$6–$7orless)since2013arewellbelowtherangerequiredforParis-compatibletemperaturereductions.80Academicliteratureonthepilotssuggestssomepositivespilloverimpactsinareaslikelow-carboninnovation,81butrepresentativesofChina’scarbontradingexchangeshavepubliclyacknowledgedminimalimpactsfromthepilotETSsoncarbonemissions.OfficialsatGuangdong’scarbontradingandpowerdispatchexchanges,forinstance,haveestimatedcurrentcoalunitcarbonallowancecostsintheprovince,China’slargestcarbontradingpilotbyvalueandvolumein2019–20,ataroundjust0.5percentofoperatingcosts,which“basicallywillnothaveaneffectupontheoperatingcostsofcoalunitstoday.”82Severalintervieweesalsonotedthatbasicissuesinmonitoring,reporting,andverificationremainareasforcontinuedcapacitybuildinginthesteelsector.83ADecember2020reportfromrespectedChinesebusinessoutletCaixin,forinstance,indicatedthat,thoughsteelfirmshadreportedemissionstoauthoritiesfor2013–19,“governmentverificationofthesefiguresisbeingstillawaited.”84Eventheemissionsreportingisnotnecessarilycomprehensive.TheprovinciallyownedsteelmakerShandongIronandSteel,theseventh-largeststeelmakerinChina,saysthatitbeganconductingemissionsinventoriesin2013foritslargestsubsidiaryandisnowextendingtheseeffortstotherestofthegroup.85LimitedpolicyexpectationshelpexplainwhyfewmajoremittingChinesefirmshadissuedformaldecarbonizationtargetsbeforetheneutralitypledge.Theonlysuchpledgesamongthe30firmsreviewedforthisreportcamefromTaiwanCement—theeighth-largestcementfirminChinabyclinkercapacityand,notably,aTaiwanesecompanylistedinTaiwan.86Infact,manyhigh-emittingfirmsincoalgeneration,steelmaking,andcementdidnotreleasepublicemissionsdata,particularlyiftheywerenotlistedonHongKongequitymarkets.Table4listsgreenhousegasemissionsfromtheChinesecompaniesreviewedinthisreportwhoreporteddataonthisfrontin2019.Forcompanieswhodonotreportemissions,italsoincludesemissionsvolumesfromtheirlargestlistedsubsidiary(bytotalassets)involvedintherelevantsector,ifavailable.Onlyonenonlistedmajoremitterincoalgeneration,steelmaking,orcement—ChinaNationalBuildingMaterialsGroup(CNBM),thecountry’slargestclinkercapacityowner—reportedemissionsdatafor2019.AllfiveothermajoremittersreportingemissionswereHongKong–listedcompanies,andfourofthefivemajoremittersubsidiariesreportingemissionswerealsolistedinHongKongorinternationally.Companiesthatdidnotreport,meanwhile,weregenerallyeithernonlistedorlistedontheShenzhenorShanghaiexchanges.Bycontrast,thefirmsreviewedgenerallydisclosedinformationonenergyconsumptionandpollutantdischarge—thegovernment’smainenergyandenvironmentpriorities.Thecontrastherewithcarbondisclosuresunderscorestheinfluenceofpolicyprioritiesinguidingfirmdecision-making.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202123GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESTable4:2019GHGemissionsdisclosuresfromtopChinesefirmsinthermalgeneration,steelmaking,andcementSectorCompanyListinglocationsDisclosedGHGemissionsChineseindustryparent(ifapplicable)Totalassetsas%ofindustryparenttotalassetsEmissionsnotesTotalScopeCementChinaNationalBuidingMaterialsGroup中国建材集团有限公司None277.8mtCO2Notspecified----Coversgroup-wideemissionsacrossarangeofbuildingmaterialssectors,includingcementandglass.Drivenprimarilybycementemissions.CementAnhuiConchCement安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司HongKong,Shenzhen199.7mtCO2eqNotspecified----ThermalpowerChinaResourcesPower华润电力控股有限公司HongKong134.0mtCO2Scope1+2(fuelcombustion,desulfurization,purchasedelectricity)----CementChinaResourcesCement华润水泥控股有限公司HongKong58.7mtCO2eqScope1("majordischargeoutletsfromcementproductionplants")----CementChinaShanshuiCement中国山水水泥集团有限公司HongKong34.5mtCO2Notspecified("emissionsofallclinker-producingenterprises")----Attributablealmostentirely(ifnotentirely)toitssubsidiary,ShandongShanshui,China'ssixth-largestclinkerproducerbycapacity.CementChinaTianruiGroupCement中国天瑞集团水泥有限公司HongKong22.8mtCO2eq1.0mtCO2eqScope1Scope2----Attributableentirelytoitssubsidiary,TianruiCement,China'sninth-largestclinkerproducerbycapacity.CementAsiaCement亚洲水泥（中国）控股公司HongKong21.7mtCO2Notspecified----continuedonnextpage24­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESNote:Onlythelargestlistedsubsidiariesofeachmajorasmeasuredbytotalassetsareconsidered.(ChinaHongqiaoisthelargestlistedcompanyamongagroupofaluminumandtextilecompaniesownedbytheZhangfamilyandcollectivelyreferredtointhisreportasShandongWeiqiao,butthelackofaformalsubsidiaryrelationshipbetweenthesecompaniespreventstheattributionofasingleindustryparentorcorrespondingassetshare.)CompaniesfromTable2whosecontrollingshareholdersareforeignareexcluded.ChinaResourcesPowerandChinaPowerInternationalDevelopmentstatethattheiremissionsarereportedbaseduponthermalemissionsreportedpernationalstandardGB32151.1-2015,whichspecifiesthermalemissionsreportingfromfuelcombusion,desulfurization,andpurchasedelectricity.HuadianPowerInternationaldoesnotspecifywhetheritsindirectemissionsincludeScope3emissionsornot.Source:SeeAppendix,PartA,sectionii;NationalCarbonEmissionsManagmentStandardizationTechnicalCommittee,“Requirementsofthegreenhousegasemissionaccountingandreporting—Part1:Powergenerationenterprise”(“温室气体排放核算与报告要求第1部分：发电企业”),GB/T32151.1-2015,effectiveJanuary1,2016,accessedMay13,2021,http://www.cqjnw.org/article.php?id=11833.continuedfrompreviouspageSectorCompanyListinglocationsDisclosedGHGemissionsChineseindustryparent(ifapplicable)Totalassetsas%ofindustryparenttotalassetsEmissionsnotesTotalScopeThermalpowerDatangInternationalPower大唐国际发电股份有限公司London,HongKong,Shanghai198.5mtCO20.1mtCO2“Direct”(Scope1)“Indirect”(unspecified;Scope2orScope2+3ChinaDatangGroup中国大唐集团有限公司37.2%ThermalpowerChinaShenhuaEnergy中国神华能源股份有限公司HongKong,Shanghai151.5mtCO2eq5.9mtCO2eqScope1Scope2ChinaEnergyInvestmentCorporation国家能源投资集团有限责任公司32.2%ThermalpowerHuadianPowerInternational华电国际电力股份有限公司HongKong,Shanghai167.9mtCO20.1mtCO2"Direct"(Scope1)"Indirect"(unspecified;Scope2orScope2+3)ChinaHuadianGroup中国华电集团有限公司28.2%ThermalpowerChinaHongqiao中国宏桥集团有限公司HongKong55.0mtCO2eq13.3mtCO2eqScope1Scope2----MemberoftheShandongWeiqiaogroupofcompaniesThermalpowerChinaPowerInternationalDevelopment中国电力国际发展有限公司HongKong48.9mtCO2Scope1+2(fuelcombustion,desulfurization,purchasedelectricity)StatePowerInvestmentCorporation国家电力投资集团10.6%SteelHunanValinIronandSteel湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司Shenzhen34.2mtCO2NotspecifiedHunanValinIronandSteelGroup湖南华菱钢铁集团有限责任公司78.3%ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202125GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESLimitedengagementfromChinesefirmswithcarbonmanagementreflecteditssecondarystatuswithinChineseeconomicandenvironmentalpolicy.The30-60announcementwasapowerfulsignalfromXiJinpinghimselfforelevatingofficialattentiontocarbonemissionsandforcingfirmstostartengagingmoredirectlywiththeseissues.Peaking“before2030”insteadof“around2030”doesnotrequireadramaticshiftinbehavior.AnalysesofChina’semissionstrajectorysuggestthatmeetingthisgoalwillberelativelystraightforwardbutwillnotputChinaonapathwayconsistentwitha1.5-degreetemperatureincrease.87The2060net-zerotargetisbetteralignedwiththispathway.88ButitwilldemandadramatictransformationinChina’seconomy,withfirmsinenergygenerationandheavyindustryshiftingfromtheircurrentproductionmodelstocarbon-neutralmodesofoperating.Oneearlysignaloffirmengagementaroundthistransitionistheintroductionofcorporateemissionscontrolandreductiontargets.Thesetargetsarenotontheirownameasureofclimatecommitment.Firmscanusetargetsasgreenwashing;theycanpublishtargetsnarrowlydefinedtoexcludetheirmainemissionsdrivers,ortargetsthatbrandpreexistingenergyefficiencyorproductdiversificationplansascarbonreductionefforts.89Indeed,thescholarlyliteratureoncorporateclimatetargetsettingconfirmsthelimitsofusingemissionsreductionstargetsaloneasmeasuresoffirms’engagementwiththeclimatetransition.Dahlmannetal.(2019),analyzingcorporateemissionstargetsrecordedworldwidebetween2010and2013intheCarbonDisclosureProject(CDP)database,modelfirms’propensitytosetemissionsreductiontargetsandfindnoevidencetosuggestthatthetypesoffirmssettingreductiontargetsforthemselvesreduceemissionsmorethanfirmsthatdonot.90CalleryandKim(2020),reviewingCDPdatafrom2011to2019,findwidespreadevidenceoffirmslaggingthelinearemissionsreductionratesrequiredtomeettheirtargetsandclaimingtargetattainmentinCDPrecordsevenwhentheirpublicGHGinventoriesindicateotherwise.91StudieslikeDahlmannetal.andIoannouetal.(2016)findarelationshipbetweenmoreambitioustargetsandgreaterreportedemissionsreductions,butCalleryandKim’sdetailedscrutinyofGHGinventoriesturnsupnosuchlink.92Ifpublicrelations-driventargetsareshownonaveragenottodriveemissionsreductions,thatdoesnotmeantargetsnevermatter.Process-focusedstudiesofcorporatesustainabilitystrategy,likeKironetal.(2017)andSroufe(2017),emphasizethevalueofmeasurabletargets,incorporatedintoKPIs,astoolsformakinghigh-levelsustainabilitycommitmentsimplementable.93Freibergetal.(2021),indiscussingwhyfirmschoosetoestablishGHGreductiontargetsverifiedbytheUN-backedScience-BasedTargetsInitiative(SBTi),notedcommentsfromintervieweesabouthowtheSBTiprocessprompteddeeperinternalcollaborationintheirfirmsonfindingwaystocutemissions.94Thesestudiessuggestthattargetscanbepowerfultoolsifdeployedaspartofdeepercorporatecommitmenttocarbonmanagement.ThisassessmentisreflectedinthemethodologiesoftheTransitionPathwaysInitiative(TPI)andtheWorldBenchmakingAlliance(WBA),whichpublishassessmentsoflistedcompanies’preparednessfordecarbonization.Bothprojectsincludethepresenceandcharacterofcorporatedecarbonizationtargetsalongsideahostofotherindicatorsintheirassessments.95RAISINGAMBITION:CORPORATECARBONCOMMITMENTSSINCETHEPLEDGES26­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESAcomprehensiveassessmentofthesemanyfactorsthatdeterminethecorporateenvironmentfortargetimplementationisbeyondthescopeofthisreport;TPIandWBAassessmentsincorporatereviewsofpublicdisclosuresonamuchwiderarrayofissueslikeclimateriskmanagement,boardcomposition,andtradeassociationstances.Buttargetsareworthtrackingontheirown—becauseoftheirvalueintherightenvironment,describedabove,butalsobecauseoftheirspecialsignificanceintheChinesecontext.Chineseauthoritiesrelyheavilyuponplan-basedtargetsettingforhigh-levelpolicygoals.Manyofthelargestemittersincoalgeneration,cement,andsteelarestate-ownedgroupsexpectedtoaligntheirowncorporateplanningwithgovernmenttargets,andlargeprivatefirmsmustcontendwiththesetargetsaswellaspartofengagementswithlocalauthorities.Thesecircumstancescreateadditionalpressuresforfirmstousetargetstoensurecompliancewithgovernmentmandates.ReviewofFirmandIndustryTargetSettingPost-30-60Table5listscommitmentsasofJuly1,2021fromthe30firmsreviewedinthisreportaswellasindustry-widecommitmentsannouncedbyindustryassociationsorreportedfromofficialsectoralpeakingplansunderdevelopment.AllofthesetargetshavebeenreleasedsincetheneutralityandpeakinggoalswereannouncedlastSeptemberexceptforthatofTaiwanCement.TaiwanCementisalsotheonlyfirmwithanSBTi-approvedgoalcoveringChinesefacilities.96(SeekingSBTiapprovalisvoluntary.)Thetargetsdonotspecifytheemissionsscopecovered.Nationalreportingrequirementscoverscope1andscope2emissions.97Theanalysesinthispaperthusassumethatpledgescoverthesecategories,thoughthelackofclarityfromfirmsandassociationsisareasonforscrutiny.98ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202127GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESTable5:Emissionsreductiontargetsfromtop10firmsinChinesehigh-emittingsectorsasofJuly1,2021ElectricityIndustry-widetargets:noneannouncedCompanyControllingownertype(SOE/private/foreign)January2021installedcoalcapacity(GWs)NationalshareEmissionsreductiontargetsChinaEnergyInvestmentCorporation.国家能源投资集团有限责任公司CentralSOE140.7(GCPT)188.4(official)13.6%(GCPT)17.4%(official)Peakby2025(in"coal-basedindustries")Neutralby2055(in"coal-basedindustries")ScopenotspecifiedChinaHuanengGroup中国华能集团有限公司CentralSOE109.3(GCPT)10.5%(GCPT)NoneannouncedChinaDatangGroup中国大唐集团有限公司CentralSOE86.1(GCPT)8.3%(GCPT)“Guaranteepeakingbefore2030andstrivetopeakearly”ChinaHuadianGroup中国华电集团有限公司CentralSOE82.5(GCPT)7.9%(GCPT)Peakby2025StatePowerInvestmentCorpporation国家电力投资集团CentralSOE65.0(GCPT)77.4(official)6.3%(GCPT)7.1%(official)Peakby2023ScopenotspecifiedChinaResourcesPower华润电力控股有限公司CentralSOE36.1(GCPT)31.9(official)3.5%(GCPT)3.0%(official)Peakby2025ScopenotspecifiedZhejiangEnergyGroup浙江省能源集团ProvincialSOE(Zhejiang)25.3(GCPT)2.4%(GCPT)NoneannouncedGuangdongEnergyGroup广东省能源集团有限公司ProvincialSOE(Guangdong)20.5(GCPT)2.0%(GCPT)NoneannouncedBeijingEnergyGroup北京能源集团有限责任公司ProvincialSOE(Beijing)17.7(GCPT)1.7%(GCPT)NoneannouncedShandongWeiqiao山东魏桥Private17.5(GCPT)1.7%(GCPT)Noneannouncedcontinuedonnextpage28­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESSteelmakingIndustry-widetargets:peakby2025andcutemissionsby30percentby2030(draft,reportedbutnotyetofficiallyannounced)CompanyControllingownertype(SOE/private/foreign)2019crudesteeloutput(mt)NationalshareEmissionsreductiontargetsChinaBaowuIronandSteelGroup中国宝武钢铁集团有限公司CentralSOE95.59.6%Peakby2023Cutemissionsby30%by2035Neutralby2050ScopenotspecifiedHebeiIronandSteelGroup河钢集团有限公司ProvincialSOE(Hebei)46.64.7%Peakby2022Cutemissionsby10%+by2025Cutemissionsby30%+by2030Neutralby2050ScopenotspecifiedJiangsuShagangGroup江苏沙钢集团有限公司Private41.14.1%NoneannouncedAnsteelGroup鞍钢集团有限公司CentralSOE39.23.9%Peakby2025Cutemissionsby30%by2035ScopenotspecifiedBeijingJianlongHeavyIndustryGroup北京建龙重工集团有限公司Private31.23.1%NoneannouncedShougangGroup首钢集团有限公司ProvincialSOE(Beijing)29.32.9%NoneannouncedShandongIronandSteelGroup山东钢铁集团有限公司ProvincialSOE(Shandong)27.62.8%NoneannouncedHunanValinIronandSteelGroup湖南华菱钢铁集团有限责任公司ProvincialSOE(Hunan)24.32.4%NoneannouncedBengangGroup本钢集团有限公司ProvincialSOE(Liaoning)16.21.6%NoneannouncedLiaoningFangdaGroup辽宁方大集团实业有限公司Private15.71.6%NoneannouncedcontinuedonnextpageENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202129GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESCementIndustry-widetarget:peakby2023CompanyControllingownertype(SOE/private/foreign)2020installedclinkercapacity(mtpa)NationalshareEmissionsreductiontargetsChinaNationalBuildingMaterialsGroup中国建材集团有限公司CentralSOE391.221.4%NoneannouncedAnhuiConchCement安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司ProvincialSOE(Anhui)215.511.8%NoneannouncedTangshanJidongCement唐山冀东水泥股份有限公司ProvincialSOE(Beijing)105.35.8%NoneannouncedChinaResourcesCement华润水泥控股有限公司CentralSOE66.93.7%NoneannouncedHuaxinCement华新水泥股份有限公司ForeignwithlocalSOEasminorityshareholder(HuangshiCity,Hubei)63.03.4%NoneannouncedHongshiHoldingsGroup红狮控股集团有限公司Private57.23.1%NoneannouncedShandongShanshuiCementGroup山东山水水泥集团有限公司Private54.63.0%NoneannouncedTaiwanCement台湾水泥股份有限公司Foreign40.82.2%2025:cutScope1emissionsintensityby11%,Scope2by32%[Taiwan+China;SBTi-approved]2030:cutemissionsintensityby20%vs.2016[Chinaonly;scopenotspecified]2050:"carbonneutralityforconcreteproducts"continuedonnextpage30­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGEScontinuedfrompreviouspageCement(cont)Industry-widetarget:peakby2023CompanyControllingownertype(SOE/private/foreign)2020installedclinkercapacity(mtpa)NationalshareEmissionsreductiontargetsTianruiCementGroup天瑞水泥集团有限公司Private35.21.9%NoneannouncedAsiaCement亚洲水泥（中国）控股公司Foreign22.41.2%NoneannouncedNote:InformationfromGlobalEnergyMonitor(GEM)anditsGCPTdatabaseisinsufficienttoidentifyasinglecorporationcorrespondingtoShandongWeiqiao.BaseduponreviewofGEMstaffstatementsaswellascorporaterecordsdatabases,theauthorinfersthislistingreferstoasetofcompaniesownedbytheZhangfamilyincludingChinaHongqiao,oneofChina’slargestaluminumproducers.TheGEMdatabaseisbaseduponopen-sourcedocumentreviewandonlyincludesplantsofatleast30MWinsize.InstalledcapacitysharesofcoalunitsreflectGCPTnationalrecordedcoalcapacityforGCPTdata(1043.0GW)andofficialnationalcoalcapacityforfirm-reporteddata(1080.0GW).Source:Forfirms,seeAppendix,SectionB,partii,SectionC,partsiiandiii,andSectionD.Forindustry,seeChinaBuildingMaterialsFederation,“ActionDeclarationforAdvancingCarbonPeakingandCarbonNeutralityinBuildingMaterials”(“推进建筑材料行业碳达峰、碳中和行动倡议书”),January16,2021,accessedApril28,2021,http://www.cnggg.cn/news/shownews.php?lang=cn&id=229;LiangQing,“SteelIndustryCarbonEmissionsPeakingandReductionActionPlanTakesShape”(“钢铁行业碳达峰及降碳行动方案成型”),EconomicInformationDaily(经济参考报),March30,2021,accessedApril28,2021,http://www.jjckb.cn/2021-03/30/c_139845634.htm.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202131GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESSevenofthe27Chinesefirmsreviewedinthisreporthaveissuedtargetsforpeakingemissionsby2025orearlier.Allsevenofthesefirmshaveelevatedprofilesassectorleaders.SixarecentralSOEs,firmschargedwithservingaspublicexamplesettersincarbonneutralitybyvirtueoftheirownershipstatus.Theremainingfirm,theprovincialSOEHebeiIron&Steel(HBIS),isChina’ssecond-largeststeelproducer.Ithasservedasaglobalstandard-bearerfortheChinesesteelindustryasoneofChina’stworepresentatives(alongsideBaowu)ontheexecutivecommitteeofworldsteel,theglobalsteelindustryassociation,since2016–17.99HBISchairmanYuYongiscurrentlytheassociation’schair.100Intermsofsectoralbreakdown,thebulkofpeakingcommitmentsfor2025orearlierthusfarhavecomefromelectricitygenerators:threeoftheBig5,aswellasChinaResources,thesixth-largestcoalpoweroperator.101Thesefirmstogetheraccountedfor34.1percentofnationalinstalledthermalcapacityin2019.Onlyfourfirmshavepublicizedneutralitytargets:topenergygeneratorandcoalgiantCEIC;TaiwanCement;andBaowuandHBIS,theworld’snumbertwoandnumberfoursteelproducersin2019.102(Baowubecametheworld’slargestproducerin2020.103)CEIC’spledgecoversonlyitscoal-basedindustries,buttheseshouldrepresentthevastmajorityofitscarbonemissions.104Firm-levelemissionsreductiontargetsincementandsteelhavecomeonlyfromBaowu,HBIS,TaiwanCement,andAnshanSteel.Buttherehasbeenactivityattheindustrylevel.Inmid-January2021,theChinaBuildingMaterialsFederationannounceda2023peakingtargetforthecementsectoraspartofageneral2025peakingtargetforthewholebuildingmaterialssector.105Insteel,mediareportsonanationalemissionspeakingactionplanforthesectorsuggestanexpected2025targetdateforsteelemissionspeakingfollowedbya30percentreductionfrompeaklevelsby2030.Chinesefirms’commitmentsasofthefirsthalfof2021werebroadlymoreconservativethansectorleadersglobally,mostofwhomcomefromthedevelopedworld.Inelectricitygeneration,reportsbyS&PGlobalMarketIntelligenceindicatethat70percentofthe30largestUSutilitieshadnet-zerotargetsasofDecember2020,mostlyintroducedsince2019,andallbut3ofthelargest22Europeanutilitieshadnet-zerotargetsasofApril2021.106Commitmentsfrompeersoutsideoftheseregionsaremuchlesscommon,withlong-termdeepdecarbonizationtargetsfromonlyahandfuloflargethermalpowerownersoutsidetheWest:India’sTataPowerandJSWEnergy,forinstance,andJapan’sJ-POWER.107Globalcementandsteelpeersareasawholelessaggressiveinsettingnet-zerotargets—unsurprisingly,giventheabatementchallengesinbothsectors.Still,asofDecember2020,TransitionPathwaysInitiative(TPI)assessmentsof33cementproducersincluded5companies—CRHandHeidelbergCementfromEuropeaswellasMexico’sCemex,India’sDalmiaBharat,andJapan’sTaiheiyoCement—withdeepdecarbonizationtargets,seekingtoachievenetzerobyatleast2050ortolowercarbonintensitylevelstothoseconsistentwithabelow2-degreespathway.108Notably,therearefourtop-10globalcementproducersbyintegratedproductioncapacitythatarenotChinese:Cemex,HeidelbergCement,LafargeHolcim(Switzerland),andUltraTechCement(India).EachofthesecompanieshasmoresubstantialdecarbonizationtargetsthantheirChinesecounterparts:LafargeHolcim(Switzerland)andUltraTech(India)holdcarbonintensityreductiontargetsfor2030and32­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES2032,respectively.109Somenationalindustryassociations—suchastheUnitedStates’PortlandCementAssociation,whichrepresentsmorethan90percentofAmericancementproductioncapacity—havealsoseta2050net-zerotarget.110Insteelatleast,theneutralitypledgesfromBaowuandHBISputChina’stwobiggestproducerstowardthefrontofanemergingnet-zerotrendintheindustry.ThistrendwasinitiallyconfinedtofirmswithsignificantEuropeanproductionbases;EuropeanmajorslikeThyssenKruppaswellasTataSteel’sEuropeanoperationsannounced2050neutralitytargetsin2018–19.111Itsexpansiontoothergeographieshasonlybeguninthepastyear.ArcelorMittal,thelargestproducerin2019inEurope,theAmericas,andworldwide,announceda2050neutralitytargetinSeptember2020.KoreaandJapan’snational2050net-zerotargets,releasedinfall2020,haveoccasionedsimilartargetsfromNipponSteel(Japan)andPOSCO(Korea),thenumberthreeandnumberfiveglobalproducersin2019.112BeyondBaowuandHBIS,though,theabsenceoftargetsfromotherChineseproducerscontrastswith2030interimreductiontargetsthatfeatureamongseveraladditionalfirmsreviewedbytheTPI,includingJFE(Japan),KobeSteel(Japan),JSWSteel(India),andBluescopeSteel(Australia).113DriversofFirmandIndustryTargetsRealizingthe2060neutralitytargetwilldemandmuchmoreaggressiveemissionsreductionsfromChinesehigh-emittingfirmsthanthosereflectedinthetargetsthatmostsectormajorshadlaidoutthroughJune2021.(Andthatistosaynothingoffirmsnotreviewedinthisreportthatcomprisetheremaining40–60percentofproductionandcapacityineachofthesesectors.)Thisgap,ofcourse,inpartreflectsthechallengesofdeepdecarbonization.IfChinesecementandelectricitygenerationfirmsarebynomeansgloballeadersintheirtargetsetting,theyarenotaloneintheircaution,particularlyoutsideofWesternmarkets.Thiscautionreflectsexpertisegapsincarbonmanagementandtheimportanceofpolicyguidanceindeterminingfirms’decarbonizationapproaches.Chinesefirmsgenerallyremainintheearlystagesofbuildingcarbonmanagementexpertisethatcaninformtheirdecarbonizationefforts.Severalconsultancieswithclimate-relatedpracticesinChinadiscussedininterviewshowtheneutralitypledgehasdrivenamajorexpansionofclientinterestincarbonemissionsmanagementandplanningservices.114AformerChinesegovernmentofficialintervieweddescribedasurgeofinquiriestogovernmentthinktanksfromcompaniesandindustrialassociationssinceXi’sannouncementseekingtheirhelparoundcarbonplanningandmanagement.115ReporterswiththeChinesestatemediaoutletGlobalTimeswroteinJanuary2021that“manystate-ownedenterprisesarestill‘watching’—someofthemarestilllearninghowtosettheirgoals,wheretostartandhowtoimplementthem.”116Butauthoritiesarealsostillearlyintheprocessofturningtheneutralityandpeakingtargetsintoconcreteguidanceforfirms.Beforethepledge,China’spolicyenvironmentgavefirmslittlereasontoinvestincarbonmanagement.Thepledgeitselfsignaledaforthcomingchangebutgavenodetailsabouthowitwouldtakeplace.Indeed,therewerenodetailsyettogive.Thepledge’sformulationtookplacethroughahighlycentralizedprocess,limitedtoseniorleadershipandacoreresearchteamledbyTsinghuaUniversityscholars;forfirms,andformostofthebureaucracy,theannouncementwasasurprise.117Moreover,theannouncementENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202133GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGEStookplaceataninternationalforumratherthanaspartofakeyagenda-settingeventintheCommunistPartyofChina’spolicycalendarliketheannualTwoSessionsmeeting.MakingthepledgebeforeaninternationalaudiencereflectedthevalueofclimatediplomacyasatoolforstrengtheningChina’sglobalimage,butitdidnotimmediatelyplacethepledgeinthecontextofothernationalpolicyprioritieswithwhichitmustcompeteforstateattention.Theneutralitypledgewas,inMichalMeidan’swords,“thebeginningofapolicyplanningprocessratherthantheculminationofone.”118Thefirstmajorsignalaboutthedirectionofthatpolicyprocesscameinmid-December,attheCentralEconomicWorkConference(CEWC),anannualmid-DecembermeetingatwhichChinasetsitseconomicpolicyprioritiesforthecomingyear.119TheDecember2020CEWC’sreadoutlisted“carryingoutcarbonpeakingandcarbonneutralitywork”asthelastofitseight“keytasks”forChineseeconomicpolicyin2021andstatedthatChina“mustseizetheestablishmentofactionplanstopeakcarbonemissionsbefore2030.”120ThispronouncementconfirmedthatthesepledgeshadaplacewithinChina’simmediatepolicyagenda;officialreadoutsfromtheprioryear’sCEWC,bycontrast,hadnotmentionedcarbonemissionsatall.121ReinforcingsignalsforcentralSOEscameatthelateDecemberannualmeetingofcentralSOErepresentativesheldbythenationalState-OwnedAssetsSupervisionandAdministrationCommission,inchargeofcentralSOEoversight.AswiththeCEWC,carbonemissionshadbeenabsentfromthe2020“majortasks”setoutforSOEsintheprioryear’smeeting.122Thistime,though,officialscalleduponfirmsto“activelyparticipatein‘carbonpeaking’and‘carbonneutrality’actions”aspartofthelastoftheireight“majortasks”for2021:“activelyservingandsupportingmajornationalstrategies.”123Amongthefirmsreviewedinthisreport,theonlyfirmwithapublicemissionsreductiontargetbeforetheCEWCwasSPIC,themostambitiouslow-carbonenergydeveloperamongtheBig5energygenerationfirms.124DaysaftertheCEWC,China’slargestenergygeneratorandcoalproducer,CEIC,helditsstandardannualleadershipmeetingontheconferenceandannouncedthatitwasworkingonaplantopeakemissionsby2025.125Januarywouldseeafurtherbatchofannouncementsasfirmsdefinedtheirworkplansfor2021:targetsforcarbonpeakingby2025fromBig5memberHuadian,aswellasBaowu’s2050neutralitytarget.126(Aroundthistime,Datangannouncedthatit“soughttohavenon-fossilinstalledenergycapacityexceeding50percentby2025andachieve‘carbonpeaking’fiveyearsearly.”Buttheiremissionspeakingplan,releasedinlateJune,didnotmentiona2025emissionspeakingtarget.)HBISannounceditsneutralitytargetonthesamedayasthe14thFYPoutlinewaspublishedinfull.127Thefirstmonthsof2021haveseenministries,firms,andindustrialassociationsstartingtotranslatehigh-levelpoliticalsignalsintopolicyplansthatclarifyjusthowauthoritiesseektobalancepeakingandneutralitywithothernonclimatepriorities.China’s14thFYPoutlineestablishedstatusquoheadlinetargetsfor2025aroundemissionsintensity(18percentdeclineoverthefiveyears)andenergyintensity(13.5percentdecline),thoughitalsocontainedstrongerlanguagearoundcurtailingcoalcapacitygrowthandacceleratinggrowthofzero-carbonalternatives.128TheneutralitytargetwasalsofollowedbyissuanceofregulationstolaunchChina’snationalemissionstradingsystemforpowergeneratorsin2021,fouryearsaftertheinitialroadmapreleaseforthesectorin2017;officialsplantoaddseven34­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESothersectorsinthecomingyears,includingcementandsteel,thoughthereisnoofficialexpansiontimetable.129(TheETS’semissionsimpactishighlyuncertainforseveralreasons,including,forinstance,itsuseofallowancesbaseduponrelativecarbon-intensitybenchmarksinsteadofabsoluteemissionslevels.Intervieweessuggestedthatwhateverimpactsitmayhaveoverthecomingdecadeorsoarelikelytobemorepronouncedforsmallfirmsthanmanyofthelargefirmsreviewedinthisreport,whichtendtooperatemoreefficientcapacitythantheirsmallerpeers.130)Butanumberofcrucialpolicyplansandregulationsforcorporateemissionsreductionsremainforthcoming.SectoralFYPsinenergyandhigh-emittingheavyindustrysectorslikecementandsteelwillnotbereleaseduntillate2021orearly2022.TheemissionspeakingroadmapsidentifiedasapieceofChina’s2021carbonpeakingandneutralityworkattheCEWCarealsonotyetreleased,thoughmediareportshavealreadypublicizedaproposedpeakingtimelineforthesteelsector,asnotedabove.TheseforthcomingplansinvolveanswerstocrucialquestionsaboutthepaceofChina’sdecarbonizationtransitioninthiskeyperiod.Theyarelikelytosetspecifictimingfornationalandsectoralemissionspeaking,forinstance,andtogivemoreclarityaboutpotentialtotalemissionstargetsduringthe14FYP,whichtheplanoutlinehadidentifiedasa“supplement”tocarbonintensitytargets.131Theymayalsosketchoutregulatorytacticsbywhichpolicymakersintendtoachievetheirtargets—forinstance,theintroductionofmandatesforlargeemittersliketheTop-1,000andTop-10,000programs.Theseprograms,introducedinthelate2000s,assignedannualenergyconsumptionquotastolargeenergyconsumersandareseenbyChinesepolicymakersasmajordriversofefficiencygains.132Inthisway,policyandregulatorypronouncementinthecomingmonthswillproveimportantguidesforpeakingandemissionsreductionplansfromhigh-emittingfirms,particularlybeyondsectorleadersexpectedtosetexamplesfortheirpeers.Buttheirsignificanceforlong-termtargetsettingaroundcarbonneutralityislesscertain.ThemodestambitionofthepeakingtargetallowsfirmstodischargetheirpoliticalobligationsaroundcontributingtoChina’scarbongoalswithoutmanyoftheexpensiveorpainfuldecisionsrequiredbyneutrality—majorretirementsofcoalassets,forinstance,orwidespreaddeploymentofcarboncapture,utilization,andstorage(CCUS).SignalsfromEarlyCommitmentsonEmissionsPeakingandReductionEvenasmanyfirmshavenotannouncedtheirowntargets,commitmentsmadethusfarofferseveralusefulcluesforhowmajorfirmsincoalgeneration,steelmaking,andcementintendtostartcontrollingtheiremissionsinthenextdecadeandbeyond.CoalGenerationAttheUS-convenedLeadersSummitonClimateinApril2021,XiJinpingstatedthatChinawould“strictlylimittheincreaseincoalconsumptionoverthe14thFYPperiodandphaseitdown[zhubujianshao逐步减少,literally“reduceprogressively/step-by-step”]inthe15thFYPperiod.”133HisstatementreinforcedexpectationsofalikelypeakingtargetforChinesecoalconsumptionaround2025orshortlythereafter.Beforehisstatement,though,Chinaalreadyhadcommitmentsfromfourofitssixlargestcoalgeneratorstopeakemissionsby2025orearlier.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202135GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESTheircommitmentssuggestthatthesefirmsviewthe14thFive-YearPlanperiod(whichendsin2025)asthefinalwindowforcoalcapacityadditions.Thisshifthasbeenalongtimecoming.Chinahasmorethantripleditsinstalledthermalcapacityoverthepast15years,from391GWin2005to1,245GWin2020.134Theseadditionshavestrainedthermalplants’revenuesbycuttingtheiraverageannualutilizationhoursmorethan25percentsincethemid-2000s.135Still,theBig5’sadditionsinthecomingseveralyearswillnotbetrivial,asshowninTable6.GCPTdatarecords50GWofcoaleitherpermittedorunderconstructionfromthesefivefirmsand150GWofsuchprojectstotalbyChinesefirms.Thecompletionofthesefivefirms’projectswillincreaseinstalledcoalcapacitybytheequivalentof5percentofexistingChinesecapacity,perGCPTdata.Indeed,simplyfinishingallcoalprojectsunderconstructionbyChinesefirmswilladdanother94GWofcoalcapacity,anincreaseofaround9percent.Table6:CoalcapacityunderconstructionorpermittedasofJanuary2021byfirmspledgingtopeakemissionsby2025orearlierCompanyUnderconstructionPermittedTotalunderconstructionandpermittedOperatingUnderconstruction%ofoperatingTotal%ofoperatingCEIC12.29.721.9140.78.7%15.5%Huadian5.41.16.582.56.5%7.9%SPIC4.52.06.565.06.9%10.0%ChinaResources2.03.35.336.15.5%14.7%All-Chinatotal93.753.2146.91,037.89.0%14.2%2025peakers'total24.016.140.2324.27.4%12.4%2025peakers'share25.6%30.3%27.3%31.2%----Note:SPICtargetsemissionspeakingby2023;theotherthreefirmstargetpeakingby2025.FiguresarebasedontheGCPTdatabaseandsodonotincludeprojectsunder30MW..Source:SeeAppendix,SectionB,partiii.Tobeclear,largefirms’expectedcoaladditionswillbeaccompaniedbyamuchlargerrenewablesexpansion.Chinahaspledgedtoreach1,200GWofinstalledwindandsolarcapacityby2030,upfrom535GWin2020.136Sincethe30-60announcement,the10electricitygenerationmajorsreviewedinthisreporthaveannouncedplanstoaddhundredsofGWsof“renewable,”“nonfossil,”“cleanenergy,”or“newenergy”capacityduringthe14FYP(Table7).Theenergysourcesimpliedbytheseinstallationtargetsvary.“Renewable,”“nonfossil,”and“clean”energyhaveofficialdefinitionsinChina’sdraftEnergyLaw,publishedinApril2020.137FromamongChina’smajorgenerationsources,renewablescoversolar,wind,andhydropower.Nonfossilincludesthesethreeaswellasnuclear.138“Cleanenergy”isdefinednotintermsofsourcesbutintermsofhavingzeroorlowemissionsofCO2andother“environmentalpollutants.”“Newenergy”doesnothaveaformalpolicydefinition,but36­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESitisoftenusedtorefertorecentlydevelopedgenerationtechnologieslikewindandsolarasopposedtotraditionalfossilorhydrogenerationtechnologies.139Table7:Selected14FYPgenerationcapacitytargetsCompany2019capacitymix2025targetCEIC75.1%thermal(184.7GW)17.3%wind/solar(42.5GW)7.6%hydro(18.6GW)70–80GWofrenewablesadded25–30GWofsolaradded(vs.1.3GWonlinein2019)40%installedcapacityas“newenergy”Huaneng72.1%thermal(131.9GW)14.8%hydro(27.0GW)13.1%wind/solar(24.0GW)80GWof“newenergy”capacityadded50%ofinstalledcapacityas“low-carboncleanenergy”(officiallyreportedat33.7%in2019)Huadian70.8%thermal(108.3GW)17.8%hydro(27.3GW)11.4%wind/solar(17.4GW)50%ofinstalledcapacityasnon-fossil60%ofinstalledcapacityasnon-coalDatang67.5%thermal(97.3GW)18.7%hydro(27.0GW)13.8%wind/solar(19.9GW)50%ofinstalledcapacityasnon-fossilSPIC54.0%thermal(81.6GW)15.9%hydro(24.0GW)25.6%wind/solar(38.6GW)4.6%nuclear(7.0GW)c.70%ofinstalledcapacityas“cleanenergy”(officiallyreportedat51%in2019,56%in2020)ChinaResources76.7%thermal(31.0GW)0.7%hydro(0.3GW)22.6%wind/solar(9.1GW)40GWofrenewablesadded50%+ofinstalledcapacityasrenewablesZhejiangEnergy35+GWtotalcapacityc.2–3%hydro(0.8GW)c.6–7%non-hydrorenewables(2.3GW)“Renewableinstalledcapacitywilldouble;wewillstrivetoadd20GWofrenewables;andrenewableinstalledcapacitysharewillreach28.8%”[seenotes]BeijingEnergyN/A50%+“cleanenergy”Note:TargetsfromZhejiangEnergyarepuzzlinglyinconsistent.Adding20GWofrenewables,forinstance,wouldtakethecompanywellaboveitsgoalof28.8percentrenewableinstalledcapacityunlessaccompaniedbyanimprobable40+GWofadditionsinnon-renewablecapacity.Asfordoublinginstalledrenewablecapacity,ZhejiangEnergyreportsthatitstotalrenewableinstalledcapacityexceeded3.5GWbytheendofthe13FYPperiod,in2020.Addinganother3.5GWofrenewables,assuming35GWtotalcapacitytoday(likelyaslightunderestimate),wouldtakeZhejiangEnergy’sshareto20percent.Source:SeeAppendix,SectionA,partiandSectionD,partii.Thedefinitionsabovedonotsupportadefinitivegapanalysisfor“newenergy”and“cleanenergy”targets.Thelackoffirm-reporteddataoncoalcapacityposesthesameissueforanalyzingnoncoalcapacitytargets.140ButevenjusttherenewableandnonfossiltargetsimplyseveralhundredGWsofnewzero-carbonadditionsthrough2025.CEICandChinaResourcestogetherplantoadd110–120GWofnewrenewables.HuadianandDatang’stargetsof50percentinstallednonfossilcapacityby2025implyaminimumof63GWand51GW,respectively,ofnonfossilcapacityadditionsfromtheir2019portfolios,notaccountingfornetENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202137GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGEScoalcapacityadditionsin2020andbeyond.141(Netcoalcapacitydeclineswouldlowerthisminimum,buttheyareunlikely—Huadianintendstoshutjust3GWofcoalby2025,lessthanthe5.4GWofadditionsreportedbyGCPTasunderconstructionasofJanuary2021.142)S&PGlobalPlatts,inareportontheBig5companies’targets,statesthat“thecompaniesdefinecleanfuelsaswind,solar,hydro,nuclear,biomass,geothermalandnaturalgas.”143Basedonthisdefinition,SPIC’stargetof70percentcleanenergyby2025wouldentailaminimumof81GWofadditionsof“clean”capacity.(Naturalgasisunlikelytobemorethanasupportingplayerinthis;SPIC’scombinedgasandbiomassinstalledcapacityin2020werearoundaneighthofitstotalsolarandwindcapacity.144)ThesetargetswillrequireChina’sbiggestenergygeneratorstoenterthesolarmarketinearnest.Thesefirmshavebeenmarginalplayersinsolardevelopment;beyondSPIC,theotherfourBig5firmsallhavetotalsolarholdingsof1–4GW,comprising3percentorlessoftheiroverallportfolios(Table3).IntervieweessuggestedthatbigSOEs’traditionalfocusonlarge-scalethermalandhydropowerprojectshasfitmoreneatlyintothedevelopmentoflargecentralizedwindprojectsthansolar,whosegrowthhasbeenmoreconcentratedinsmaller-sizeprojects,includingdistributedsolar.145Thoughinstalledcapacityinbothsolarandwindwillgrowmoreinabsolutetermsthaneithernuclearorhydropowerinthecomingfiveyears,solarisparticularlypromising.AnalystswithCITICSecurities,forinstance,project73GWofnewsolarand34GWofnewwindcapacityannuallyonaveragenationwidefrom2021to2025,implyingcompoundannualgrowthrates(CAGRs)of19.5percentforsolarand9.9percentforwind,whilereportersattherespectedChinesefinancialmagazineCaijingciteindustryprojectionsof70–90GWofsolarand50–60GWofwind.146(Someforecastersforeseesmallergapsbetweenthetwo;theGlobalEnergyInterconnectionDevelopmentandCooperationOrganization,athinktankaffiliatedwithChina’sbiggestgridoperator,projects60GWinannualsolaradditionsand50GWinwind.147)Bycontrast,the14thFYPoutline’stargetof70GWofinstallednuclearimpliesanadditional20GWoverthenextfiveyears(a7percentCAGR);nuclearunitdevelopmentandoperationalcontrolishighlyconcentratedamongapprovedparticipants,ofwhichonlySPICisatop-10thermalfirm.148Asforhydropower,itsgrowthhasdeclinedsteadilyoverthepastdecade.Between2010and2015,103.5GWinnewcapacitycameonline(a8.1percentCAGR);between2015and2020,itwasonly38.1GW(a3percentCAGR).149Giventhesetrends,majorgenerationfirmswillstruggletomeettheirtargetswithoutparticipatinginsolar’ssurginggrowth.Severalhavealreadybegundoingsoamidsolar’splummetingcosts,asnotedbyenergysectoranalystYukiYu.150CEIC,withjust1.3GWofsolarinoperationasof2019,isplanning25–30GWofadditionalsolargrowthin2021–25,andHuanengisinthemidstofacquiringthesolarassetsofmajordeveloperandmanufacturerGCLPoly.Butintervieweessuggestedthatthediveintosolarwillchallengefirmsinbalancingeffectivesiteselectionandprojectdevelopmentwithrapidcapacityadditionsor,alternatively,inintegratingmergersandacquisitions(M&A)targetswithexistingsolarportfolios.151ThesechallengesareintertwinedwithabroadersetofinstitutionalchallengesforChina—affectingwindaswellassolargrowth—aroundbuildingapowergridthatcanmanagelargevolumesoflow-carbonpower.Analystshavediscussedmanyofthesechallengesatlength.152Forinstance,ongoingreformsinChinaareseekingtotransitiondispatchandcompensationsystemsinChinafromadministrativeallocationtomoreflexibleformsofmarketcontracting.38­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESButtheyhaveyettoappropriatelyincentivizethecoalflexibilityinvestmentsneededtoaccompanygreaterrenewablespenetrationandguaranteeenergysecurityamidrisingdemand.Thecentralroleofprovincesasgridoperatorsbalkanizesgridsystemsbyconstraininginterprovincialtrade,adrawbackforrenewableshubsininteriorChinathatrelyuponaccesstocoastalloadcenters.HopesaroundcoalretirementstoopenupmarketshareforrenewablesalsomustcontendwithenergysecuritypressuresfromrisingpowerdemandinChinaaswellaspoliticaleconomyincentivesaroundcoalasavaluedriverinlocaleconomies.Thesechallengesarenotnecessarilyfirm-levelchallenges.ButtheyaffectwindandsolarprojecteconomicsaswellasthepoliticalpressurestowhichSOEsmustrespond.Inthisway,theyshapetheenvironmentinwhichfirmsattempttorampuptheirinstalledrenewablecapacity.SteelandCementEffortstoreducesteelandcementemissionsrelyintheshorttermuponlong-awaitedoutputpeaksthatwilleasilydeliverpeakingineachsector.Progressbeyondthisstagewilldemandtechnologiesthatarenotyetcommercial.Effortsonthisfrontaroundsteel,moresothancement,willbenefitfromconvenientoverlapsbetweenthestepsthesectormusttaketodecarbonizeandthestepsitmusttaketofulfillseveralkeypolicyprioritiesunrelatedtoclimate.BothsteelandcementdemandareexpectedtofallthisdecadeamidChina’sfitfulshiftawayfrominfrastructure-drivengrowth.MorganStanleyandCITIC,forinstance,projecta5–10percentdeclineinChinesesteelproductionbetween2020and2030,whileCITICforeseesarounda25percentdropinChinesecementproductionoverthesameperiod.153Theseconditionsmeanthatpeakingemissionsinthesesectorsiscloselytiedtopeakingoutput.ChinaCementAssociationViceChairLiShentoldreportersinJanuary2021that“clinkerproductionvolumeisthebiggestfactorinfluencingthecementindustry’scarbonemissions”andprojectedthattheproductionpeakexpectedduringthe14thFYPwouldsecureanemissionspeak.154SeveralintervieweesechoedLi’scommentsandsuggestedthatthispeakingtargetrequiredlittleproactiveworkbyfirmsbeyondfollowingmarketdemand;oneintervieweenotedsardonicallythatthesectorhadlongbeenina“peakingperiod.”155Insteel,authoritiesattheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology(MIIT)havepledgedsincethestartof2021toreducenationalsteeloutputthisyearand,fromtheverybeginning,havecitedthepeakingandneutralitypledgesaspartoftheirrationale.156Outputpeakshavebeenlongawaited.Afterdecadesofrunawayexpansion,amid-2010sdipinsteelandcementoutputreflectedtheonsetofChina’s“newnormal”eraoflowereconomicgrowth.Butproductionhassinceheldsteadyincementandpossiblyevengrowninsteel,asshowninFigures1and2.(Notethatofficialdataongrowingsteelproductionoverthepastseveralyearslikelyoverstatesactualproductiongrowth,reflectingshiftsinproductionfromunrecordedinductionfurnaces—formallyillegalsince2000butonlypushedoutofthemarketduringthe13thFYPperiod—tonewmillswhoseproductionregistersinofficialstatistics.157)ThesetrendsreflectChinesepolicymakers’continuedrelianceuponinfrastructureasagrowthdriverduringthelate2010stocounteraneconomicslowdownexacerbatedbyUS-Chinatensions.158ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202139GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESFigure1:Chinesecrudesteelandcementoutput,2004–2019Source:SeeAppendix,SectionC,parti.Figure2:GrowthinChinesecrudesteelandcementoutput,2004–2019Source:SeeAppendix,SectionC,parti.05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,00020042006200820102012201420162018Output(mt)CrudesteelCement-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%20042006200820102012201420162018AnnualoutputgrowthCrudesteelCement40­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESSteelandcementproductionhasremainedhighoverthepastfiveyearsdespitehigh-profilecampaignstoreducesevereovercapacityinbothsectors.159Thesecampaigns’measureshaveprovenchallengingtoenforce,withfirmsfindingavarietyofwaystomaintainorevenexpandcapacityinlinewithcontinuedstrongmarketdemand—forinstance,swappingidleorinefficientcapacityfornew,moreefficientproductionlines.160Thesteelsector’s13thFYPsoughttoreducerawsteelproductioncapacityfrom1.13bttolessthan1bt,butafteroutpacingthattargetthrough2018,anewwaveofinstallationsbroughtestimatedcapacityto1.2–1.3btin2019.161AsnotedinTable5,thecementindustryseekstopeakemissionsin2023,whereassteel’sreportedtargetgivesuntil2025.Cement’searlierdatealignswithitsmorestableproductiontrendsoverthepastseveralyears,butbothsectorsarepreservingseveralyearsofheadroomwhentheycangrowoutputtomeetsurgingdemandfromChina’sinfrastructure-heavyCOVIDstimulus.162Cementproductionwasup10.7percentinJanuary–May2021comparedtothesameperiodin2019,andcrudesteelup16.9percent,evenashigh-profileantipollutionoutputlimitationscurbedproductionfromthemajorNorthChinasteelmakinghubofTangshanstartinginMarch.163Forsteel,inparticular,productionincreaseshaveexposedtensionsamongpolicyparticipantsaboutoutputpeakingtimelines.LiXinchuan,whoheadstheMetallurgicalPlanningInstitute,aninfluentialstate-runthinktank,publiclyquestionedinMarchtheMIIT’splantoreduce2021production,sayingthatitwouldbe“difficultforrawsteelproductiontodecline”amidgrowingdemandaswellasasurgeinsectoralinvestmentduring2020.Hecalledforauthoritiestoinstead“graduallyresearchandestablishproductionrestrictionsbaseduponcarbonemissions,pollution,andtotalenergyconsumption.”164Ofcourse,evenasthesteelsectorseeksgreaterbreathingroomonpeakingproduction,itsleadingfirmsweresomeofthefirsthighemittersinChinatosetnet-zerotargets:BaowuinlateJanuary,andHBISinMarch.165ThedepthofBaowuandHBIS’scommitmenttothesetargetswillbeproperlytestedintheyearstocome,butbothfirms’announcementsdidincludeinterimmilestones.Baowuaimstopeakby2023andachievea30percentreductionby2035;HBIStargetsa2022peakanda30percentreductionby2030.166(BaowuisexpectedtopursuesignificantM&Agrowthinsteelmakingcapacityinthecomingfiveyears,withtargetsincludingprovinciallyownedsteelmakerShandongIronandSteel,theseventh-largeststeelproducerinChina.167Suchadditionswilllikelyincreasethefirm’stotalemissions,soobserversshouldwatchforhowthefirmclaimstopeakamidsuchgrowth—perhaps,forinstance,byadjustingitsbaselinetoreflectM&Aadditions’historicalemissions.)HBISalsoprovidedvaluabledetailonnear-termactionsthatwillcontributetotheirgoals;theyannouncedquantitative2025targetsforEAFcapacityshares,scrapshares,andhydrogen-basedironproductionaswellasspecificlarge-scaleinvestmentsintheirscrapsupplychain.168Baowuhasnotissuedcomparabledetails,thoughitplanstoannounceits“low-carbonmetallurgyroadmap”thisyear.169AnshanSteel’sgoalofa30percentemissionsdeclinefrompeaklevelsby2035alsorepresentsalonger-termgoalthananyfirm-wideaimsfromthepower-sectormajors.The11th-largeststeelproducerasof2019,BaotouIronandSteel,hasalsoannouncedagoalofpeakingby2023andhittingnetzeroby2050.170Absentinsiderknowledge,firm-specificmotivationsforreleasingearlyclimatepledgescanbedifficulttonaildown.Baowuwasformedasamergeroftwomajorsteelmakersin2016andENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202141GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGEShad58mtofcrudesteelproductioncapacitythatyear.Ithassincetripledinsizeandbecamein2020theworld’sbiggeststeelproducer.171Aneutralitypledgemaybeonefurtherwayforthecompanytoconsolidateitsclaimtosectorleadership,assuggestedbyintervieweeLiHongmeiofthesteeltradepublicationMysteelGlobal.Inaddition,chairmanChenDerong’spre-Baowucareerasaprovincialbureaucratmayencourageanapproachthatisevenmorepoliticallymotivatedthanhiscounterpartsatotherfirms.AsforHBISandAnshan,theymayhavefeltpressuretofollowBaowu’sexamplewithpledgesoftheirown.Interviewswithsectorspecialists,aswellasareviewoffirmstatementsabouttheirroadtoneutrality,alsohighlightseveralfeaturesofthesteelsectorthatmaymakeitbotheasierandmoreappealingforfirmstoannouncelong-termcommitmentstoemissionsreductions.SomeofthesefeaturesarestructuralaspectsofthedemandforChinesesteelproducts.Forinstance,oneseniorChineseenergy-sectorexpertinterviewedsuggestedthatcontinueddebateswithinChinaaboutsecuringreliabilityandmeetinggrowingdemandinadecarbonizedelectricitysystemcomplicatetheissuanceofnet-zeropledgesbyelectricitygeneratorsatthisstage.172Steelandcementsectortransitions,likeelectricitygeneration,involvetrickydecisionsaroundworkeremployment,assetmanagement,andcommunityeconomictransitions.Buttherearenoconsumer-sidepressurescomparabletogridreliability,orevendemandgrowth,thatfirmsmustweighintheirproductionchoices.Chinesesteelfirmsalsohavea(moderately)moreinternationaldemandfootprintthaneitherelectricitygeneratorsorcementfirms,exposingthemmoredirectlytothedecarbonizationgoalsofdevelopedmarketsliketheEuropeanUnion.TheEUisnotamajorsourceofdemand;ittakesonlyaround5percentofChinesesteelexports,risingtoward10percentforhigh-valuestainlesssteel.173Surprisingly,though,firmsprofesstobetakingnoteoftheEU’sgrowingambition.ChinaEnvironmentNews,citingBaowurepresentatives,claimedthatthatthecompany’spledgewasmotivatednotjustbythedomesticneutralitytargetbutalsobyinternationaltrends:Manyforeignironandsteelfirmsaresayingthattheywishtoachievecarbonneutralityin2050.ManyEuropeanUnionclientshaverequestedtoBaowuthatproductshavelife-cycleassessmentreports,andthatfirmswantsustainabledevelopmentreportsandcarbonemissionsreductionroadmaps;otherwise,theywillrefusetopurchase.174TheEU’sproposedcarbonborderadjustmenttariffhasalsoattractedtheattentionofChinesesteelmakers.Baowu,HBIS,andtheChinaIronandSteelAssociation(CISA),oneoftwomajorindustryassociationsforthesector,haveallmentionedthismeasureinpublicstatementsasacompetitivenesschallengeforwhichfirmsmustprepare.175Steeldecarbonizationmayalsobenefitfromabroadersetofpolicyprioritiesunrelatedtoclimatethatincentivizegreaterscrapusageandelectricarcfurnace(EAF)deployment,changesthatshouldlowerthesector’semissionsintensity.Asexplainedearlierinthetextboxonsteelemissions,themostcarbon-efficientsteelproductiontodayinvolvesrecyclingscrapsteelintonewproductsthroughEAFs,andhigherscrapsharesinbasicoxygenfurnaces(BoFs)canreducehotmetalproductiondemandsfromblastfurnaces(BFs).TheChinesesteelindustryreliesdisproportionatelyupontheBF-BoFroute,whichenjoysa90percent42­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESshareinproduction;expandingscrapuseinBoFsand,moreimportantly,encouragingthedisplacementofBF-BoFfacilitiesbyEAFsusingscrapwillbeacrucialtoolforreducingsteel’scarbonemissionsintensity.HBISincludesbothoftheseapproachesaspartofitspublicplansformeetingitsemissionsreductiontargets.Ittargetsa25percentEAFcapacityshareanda20percentshareofscrapsteelinitsBoFsby2030.(Theydonotstatecurrentlevelsforeithermetric,sothegainsimpliedmayormaynotbesignificant.)Italsointendstodevelopascrapautomotiverecyclinghubwith5milliontonsperannum(mtpa)capacityby2025and10mtpaby2030neartheirnewEAFproductionhubinShijiazhuang,developedinplaceofolderBF-BoFfacilities.176ChinesesteelmakershavetworeasonstoexpandtheiruseofscrapsteelandEAFs.First,analystsforeseeasurgeindomesticscrapsupplythatshouldcutscrapprices,asbuildingsfromChina’slate20thcenturyconstructionboomreachtheendoftheirusefullives.ANovember2020MorganStanleyreportprojectedthatChina’sannualend-of-lifesteelavailabilitywoulddoubleoverthecomingdecade,drivingscrap’sshareofChineseironsupplyfrom20percentto30percentandcuttingtotalsteelemissionsby8percent.177Second,expandedEAFusagealignswithnationalpolicyconcernsaroundairqualityandimportrelianceinstrategicinputs.Scrap-heavyEAFproductionproducesmuchlesslocalairpollutionthantheBF-BoFroute,particularlywhereEAFsdonotrelyuponelectricitysupplyfromlocalorcaptivecoalpower.Asof2017,thewidespreadadoptionofultra-low-emissions(ULE)retrofitswithinChina’scoalfleethadleftsteel(andspecificallyblastfurnaces)asthelargestindustrialsourceofmajorairpollutants.178ThesteelmakinghubsofHebeiProvince—theprovincesurroundingBeijing,whereHBISisbased—havebeenaparticularfocusforenforcementactivities.CentralpressuresaroundairpollutionforcedTangshantointroduceproductioncurbsin2019andagainthisspring,andintervieweeLiofMysteelGlobalnotedthatHBIS’slocationintensifiesthepressureitfacesaroundairpollutionmitigation.179TheCISAreportsthataroundhalfofnationalsteelcapacity(620mt)isundergoingitsownULEretrofitsrightnow.180ButChina’scapacityreplacementregulationsalsoincentivizeEAFadoptionbyallowingnewEAFprojectsofequalsizetotheBoFstheydisplace,asopposedtothenetreductions(officially)requiredfornewBoFs.181TheMIIT’sfive-yearroadmapfortheindustry,releasedinDecember2020,targetsincreasingChina’sEAFsharefrom10percentin2019to15–20percentin2025,thoughsomeearlysignsarediscouraging.182GlobalEnergyMonitor’sGlobalSteelPlantTracker,anopen-sourcedatabaseofsteelplantsaroundtheworld,identifies39mtpaofBF-BoFcrudesteelproductioncapacitycurrentlyunderconstructioninChina,asopposedtojust3mtpaofEAFs.183(Thetrackeronlycoversplantswith1mtpaofcapacity.)Asforinputself-sufficiency,Chinesesteelmakingreliesheavilyuponironoreimports,whichcomprisearound80percentofnationalsupply.184Morethan80percentoftheseimportscomefromasinglecountry,Australia.185SuchimportrelianceexposesChinesesteelproducerstoglobalironorepricevolatilitybutalsotogeopoliticalrisksfromsouringChina-Australiarelations.186TheMIIT’sindustryroadmapcallsforChinatoachieve45-pluspercentself-sufficiencyinironsupplyforsteelmakingby2025throughexpandingitsequityholdingsinoverseasironoreminesandincreasingdomesticscrapsteelproductionto300mtpa,uparound25percentfrom2019levels.Itfurtherspecifiesa30percenttargetshareENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202143GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESforscrapsteelinChina’sironsupplyforsteelmakingin2025,atargetthatwouldentailfasteremissionsintensitydeclinesthanthoseprojectedbytheMorganStanleyreportcitedabove.187TheseeffortsallfitneatlyintoChina’slarger“dualcirculation”developmentstrategythatemphasizesstrengtheningdomesticeconomicnetworksandreducingvulnerabilitytointernationaleconomiccoercion.188Beyondscrap,deepdecarbonizationeffortsinsteelalsointersectwiththehydrogeneconomy,ahigh-buzzsectorthatanumberofChinesesteelmajorsareexamining.189ThepastthreeyearshaveseenasurgeofinterestfromChineseauthoritiesinhydrogeninfrastructuredevelopment.Chineseenergy-sectorexpert(andCGEPnonresidentfellow)KevinTuhascounted37hydrogen-relatedpoliciesissuedbycentralandlocalgovernmentsinthefirstsixmonthsof2020alone.190HebeiProvinceisoneofanumberofprovinceswhohaveparticipatedinthiswave,191andsoitisperhapsnosurprisethatHBIS,ownedbyHebeiauthorities,isplanningprojectsforhydrogensteelmaking.TheHebeiProvinceDevelopmentandReformCommission’s2020listofhydrogenprojectsincludedanHBISprojecttobecompletedin2021thatintendstoproduce3,000kg/dayofhydrogenfromcokeovengas,aby-productofcokeproduction.192Morerecently,HBIS’sneutralitypledgeannouncementincludedplanstodevelop3.6mtpaof“hydrogenmetallurgy”capacityby2025.193One-sixthofthatcapacityisspecifiedascomingfromaDRIfacilityunderconstructionthatuseshydrogen-richcokeovengasand,peritsItaliandeveloperTenova,willhaveafinalcarbonfootprintoflessthan0.3tCO2/ton.194HBISexpectstoobtainthebalance(3mtpa)fromfacilitiesusinghydrogenproducedviarenewableelectricity,thoughtheydonotspecifywhetherthosefacilitieswillbeDRIplantsorblastfurnaces.HBISisnottheonlyChinesenet-zeropledgerwithastronginterestinhydrogen.ItisalsoprominentinSinopec’spledge.Thecompanyisalreadyamajorhydrogenproducer,accountingfor15percent(3.5mt)ofChina’sproduction.195Initsnet-zeroannouncement,itreportedthatitwouldbuild1,000hydrogenorcombinedhydrogen-gasolinerefuelingstationsby2025,upfromthe10itcurrentlyhasbuilttoday,and“build‘China’sbiggesthydrogencompany.‘“196DeepdecarbonizationinsteelmakinginvolvesboostingscrapandEAFsharesandestablishingasupplychainoflow-carbonhydrogen.PolicymakerpressureandshiftingmarketconditionsgiveChinesesteelmajorsreasonsbeyondcarbonmanagementtosignalinteresttodayinallofthesesteps—regardlessofhowmuchprogresstheyhavemadeinbuildingcarbonmanagementcapacityandoutliningafeasiblepathwaytonetzero.HBIS’sneutralityplanwasreleasedthedayafteracentralgovernmentinspectionteamvisitedTangshanandfoundanHBISsubsidiaryamongfourfirmsviolatingrestrictionsaroundproductioninhigh-pollutionperiods.197BaotouisaprovincialSOEinInnerMongolia,anditsnet-zeropledgecomesagainstthebackdropofenormouscentralpressureontheprovincetoenditseconomicrelianceonenergy-intensive,high-pollutionheavyindustry.198Thenet-zeropathwaysthatdoemergewillrequiremorethanjustEAFsusingscrapsteelandDRIfromlow-carbonhydrogen.(NotthatweshouldassumethatChina’shydrogensupplywillbelowcarbonanytimesoon:conventionalhydrogenproductioniscarbonintensive,andSinopec’snet-zeroannouncement,forexample,containedlittledetailonitstimelinefordecarbonizingitshydrogenproduction.)199IEAdataindicatesthatChina’senormousblastfurnacefleethasanaverageageofjust12years,incomparisontothesefacilities’typical44­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESlifetimeof40years.200DecarbonizingtheportionsofthisfleetthatadapttoChina’sfuturedemanddeclineswillrequiresignificantdeploymentofCCUS.Thissetoftechnologies,likegreenhydrogen,hasyettoprovecommercialviabilityoutsideofnicheapplicationslikeoilandgasextraction.201Unlikegreenhydrogen,however,CCUShasremainedstuckatthisstageforatleastadecade,anditdoesnotenjoytheintenseenthusiasmfromlocalChineseauthoritiesthathydrogenhasexperiencedinrecentyears.202BaowuisconductingpilotworkatitsXinjiangsubsidiaryaroundcapturingandreusingby-productblastfurnacegas,buttargetedemissionscutsatitscurrentstageofdevelopmentaremodest.203CCUSwillalsobecrucialfordecarbonizationincement.So,too,willacceleratingdevelopmentanddeploymentofnewcementcompositionsthatcanreduceclinker-to-cementratiosorsequestercarbonaspartoftheircuringprocess.ManyoftheseproposedcompositionseitherhavenicheapplicationsorremainatdemonstrationorR&Dstages.Low-clinkerformulationsusinglimestoneandcalcinedclayhavedemonstratedcommercialviabilityelsewhere,butrawmaterialsavailabilityforthesetypesofcementwithinChinaremainsunderdebate.204Cementasawholehasasomewhatmorelimitedarrayofareaswhereshort-termpolicyprioritiesinChinaintersectneatlywiththeneedsofdeepdecarbonization.Theexpansionof“alternativefuels”(AFs)—process-heatingreplacementsforcoallikewastematerialsandbiomass—standsoutasoneexceptionhere.ExistingChinesecement-sectorpolicyalreadyencouragestheexpansionofAFcoprocessingcapabilitiesincement,citingitscircular-economymeritsforwastemanagement.205Asectorparticipantinterviewednotedthatcementmajorshavealsoinvestigatedalternativefuelsasawaytoreduceexposuretocoalpricefluctuation.206ButChina’salternativefuelsharesincementthermalenergyinputaregenerallyestimatedataround2–3percent,incontrasttotheEU’s2014averageofaround40percent.207TheChinaBuildingMaterialsFederation’s2020sectoremissionsreport’slistof“keypeakingactions”includesimprovingtechnologyR&Dandgovernmentsupportforwastecoprocessingincementaspartofbroader“energystructureadjustment”acrossthesector.208Achieving50percentAFshares,withtheoptimisticassumptionofnet-zerobiomassuse,wouldpositionfirmstoreducetheircarbonintensitysomewherearound15percent.209ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202145GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESThe30-60targetshavesignificantlyelevatedthestandingofcarbonmanagementinChinesepolicypriorities.Thecountryhasadoptednationaltargetsforcarbonemissionsintensityreductionsincethelate2000sbuthasachievedthosetargetsasanadjuncttomoreimmediatepolicypriorities:energyefficiency,infant-industrypromotion,andairqualityimprovement.Thenewtargetshaveturnedcarbonmanagementitselfintoastand-alonepolicyfocusareaofrealsignificancetothecentralleadership.PeakingandneutralityworkfeatureamongChina’seight“keytasks”foreconomicpolicyin2021,andXihimselfstatedinmid-March2021thattherealizationofthesetargetswouldbe“agreattestofourparty’sabilitytogovernthenation.”210LimitedengagementwithcarbonmanagementinChinesepolicybeforethe30-60targetswasmirroredamongChinesefirmsinhigh-emittingsectors.AmongChina’sbiggestfirmsincoalgeneration,cement,andsteelmaking,nodomesticfirmhadissuedanyformaltargetsforreducingtheircarbonemissionsfootprints.Thenewnationaltargetshaveforcedfirmsandindustryassociationstoexamineemissionsfootprintsandleversfordecarbonizationmoreclosely.Formaltargetsettingthusfarremainslimitedtopeakingpledgesfromahandfulofsector-leadingfirmsaswellassteelandcementindustryassociationsandregulators.OnlythreeoftheChinesemajorsreviewed—topsteelproducersBaowuandHBISaswellascoalgiantCEIC—hadissuedlong-termnet-zerotargetsasofthestartofJuly2021.Thiscautiousresponsereflectsinpartthecapacitybuildingrequiredaroundcarbonmanagementforfirmsthathaveneverengagedwiththeseissuesbeyondreportingrequirementsandcarbontradingcompliance.Butkeypoliciesthatwillinformfirms’ownemissionsreductiontrajectories—aroundnationalpeakingtimelines,forinstance,andprovincialdevelopmentplans—remaininformation,tobepublishedlaterthisyearornext.Sector-leadingcentralSOEsmayfaceexpectationstosetexamples;theirsmallercolleagueshavemorespacetowaitorallowauthoritiestosetoutmoredetailedframeworksfortargetsetting,akintotheannualenergyconsumptionmandatesoftheTop-1000andTop-10,000programs.Nonetheless,targetsannouncedthusfardooffercluesabouttheimportofthe30-60targetsforthecountry’sbiggestemittingsectors.Incoalgeneration,targetsfromChina’sbiggestcoalpowercompaniessuggestthattheyviewthecomingfiveyearsasafinalwindowforcoalcapacityadditionsandasamajorperiodforinvestmentinnewlow-carboncapacity.Meetingfirms’targetsforhundredsofnewgigawattsofrenewableorlow-carbonenergywillrequiretheseSOEstodiversifytheirzero-carbongenerationportfoliosandfinallyenterthesolarmarket.ItwillalsorequirecontinuedprogressininstitutionalreformsinChinatobuildagridbettersuitedtotherenewablesage.Incementandsteel,meanwhile,proposedpeakingtargetsfor2023and2025,respectively,giveseveralyearstoabsorbadditionaldemandfromChina’spost-COVIDstimulus,andproductionvolumeswillbekeytodeterminingemissionstrajectoriesinbothsectorsoverthecomingdecade.Meanwhile,greaterambitionfromcentralSOEsinthesteelsectorhighlightsforcesunrelatedtocarbonmanagementitself—policymakerdemandsaroundstrategicCONCLUSION46­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESinputindependence,forinstance,andstructuralaspectsofthesteelmarketlikeitsshrinkingdemandfootprint—thatmakelong-termdecarbonizationpledgesofparticularinterest.Thisreportservesasaninitialassessmentoffirms’responsestothe30-60targets,formedasmanyfirmsmaketheirfirstsubstantiveforaysintocarbonmanagementandasofficialscontinuetohashoutahostofkeypoliciesforChina’snear-termclimateambitions.ThetargetsannouncedthusfarmaybeinlinewithChina’saimofpeakingemissionsby2030.Butdeliveringneutralityby2060isafarmoredemandingtaskandwillrequiremuchgreaterambition.Moretargetsmaybeannouncedasthesepoliciesemerge.Butitiscrucialtorememberthroughoutthattargetsarenotemissionsreductions.Theycanhelpfirmsattainreductions,buttheycanalsogreenwashinaction.Officials,investors,andstakeholdersinChinaandelsewheremustholdfirmstothegoalstheysetandpushfirmstoraisetheirambitiontoleavetheworldanyhopeofsuccessagainsttheclimatecrisis.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202147GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESTablesinthisreportdrawuponaseriesofmajorsources,listedbelowinsectionsA–D.(National-leveldataexcludesHongKongandMacau.)SectionElistsinterviewsconducted.A.EmissionsChineseandWorldGHGEmissions(Table1)TheWorldResourcesInstitute’sClimateIndicatorsAnalysisTool(CAIT)usesestimatesfromavarietyofsources,includingnationalreportstotheUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,InternationalEnergyAgency(fuelcombustion),andtheCarbonDioxideInformationAnalysisCenter(cement).●WorldResourcesInstitute,ClimateAnalysisIndicatorsdataset,ClimateWatchplatform,2021,availableathttps://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions.−Forthedetailedmethodology,seeWorldResourcesInstitute,“CAITCountryGreenhouseGasEmissions:Sources&Methods,”June2015,accessedMay11,2021,availableathttp://cait.wri.org/docs/CAIT2.0_CountryGHG_Methods.pdf.−DatasourcesincludetheIEA’sfuelcombustionemissionsdataset:CO2EmissionsfromFuelCombustion,OECD/IEA,2021.FirmEmissions(Table4)Firmemissionswereidentifiedfrom2019corporateannualreportsand(whereavailable)ESGreports.Forfirmsthatdidnotreportemissionsatagrouplevelandhadpublicsubsidiariesactiveintherelevantsector(electricity,steelmaking,orcement),annualandESGreportsfromthelargestrelevantpublicsubsidiary(bytotalassets)werealsoreviewed.AnnualreportsweresourcedfromS&PGlobalNetAdvantage.ESGreportsexaminedarecitedbelow;theyweretakenfromcompanywebsitesand,forlistedcompanies,stockexchangedisclosurerecords.ReportedEmissions●ChinaNationalBuildingMaterialGroupCo.Ltd.,2019SustainabilityReport,accessedMay11,2021,40,https://www.cnbm.com.cn/skin/model/202012031153537290.pdf.●AnhuiConchCementCompanyLimited,2019SocialResponsibilityReport,accessedMay11,2021,61,http://www.conch.cn/cn/web/viewer.html?file=../../uploadfiles/2020/03/2019%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E8%B4%A3%E4%BB%BB%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A.pdf.●ChinaResourcesCementHoldingsLimited,2019AnnualReport,88.APPENDIX:SOURCES48­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES●ChinaShanshuiCementGroupLimited,2019Environmental,Social,andGovernanceReport(環境、社會及管治報告),accessedMay11,2021,11,http://www.sdshanshuigroup.com/Static/attachment/2020-07-01/5efbdae00712d.pdf.●ChinaTianruiGroupCementCompanyLimited,Environmental,Social,andGovernanceReport2019,accessedMay11,2021,7,http://www.trcement.com/release/ESG%20Report%202019%20Tianrui%20Eng%20D6_clear.pdf.●AsiaCement(China)HoldingsCorporation,CorporationSocialReport,2019,accessedMay11,2021,22,https://csr.acc.com.tw/en/files/2019--Asia%20Cement%20China%20CSR%20report.pdf.ReportedEmissions(FirmSubsidiaries)●ChinaHongqiaoGroupLimited,Environmental,Social,andGovernanceReport2019,accessedMay11,2021,46,http://en.hongqiaochina.com/Uploads/File/2020/07/06/E1378-ESG.20200706180057.pdf.−TherelationshipbetweenChinaHongqiaoGroupandtheShandongWeiqiaogroupofcompanieswasassessedthroughareviewofChinaHongqiao’s2019annualreport(ChinaHongqiaoGroupLimited,AnnualReport2019,14,18–21,80,andpassim);listingsofChinesecompaniesheldbyHongqiaochairmanZhangBo张波andhislatefatherZhangShiping张士平oncorporaterecordsdatabaseAiqicha爱企查;andmediacoverageofthecompanycitingGEMstaff(BenHeubl,“Investigation:CanChinaCleanUpaftertheAluminiumKing?,”Engineering&Technology,February11,2021,accessedMay20,2021,https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2021/02/can-china-clean-up-after-the-aluminium-king/).ChinaHongqiaoGroupLimited’sparentisChinaHongqiaoHoldingsLimited,aBVI-listedcompanyforwhichtheauthorwasnotabletoobtaincorporaterecords.AiqicharecordsindicatethatZhangBoandZhangShipingarelikelyalsothelargestshareholdersinShandongWeiqiaoPioneering,identifiedasarelatedcompanyinHongqiao’s2019annualreport(14).●ChinaShenhuaEnergy,2020Environmental,SocialResponsibility,andFirmGovernanceReport,accessedMay12,2021,94,http://www.csec.com/zgshwwEn/csrrpt2020/202103/72e4f8a7bfa94686b23cacbdf7c2ca87/files/ba0dc29d97e04253afc4e850db3d15ea.pdf.−Assetshares:ChinaShenhuaEnergyCompanyLimited,2019AnnualReport,189;ChinaEnergyInvestmentGroupCompanyLimited,CorporateSecuritiesAnnualReport(2019)(公司债券年度报告（2019年）),22.●DatangInternationalPowerGenerationCo.Ltd,2019SocialResponsibilityReport,accessedMay12,2021,46,https://photos.prnasia.com/prnk/20200330/2763952-1.−Assetshares:DatangInternationalPowerGenerationCo.Ltd,2019AnnualReport,p.97;ChinaDatangCorporationLtd.,CorporateSecuritiesAnnualReport(2019)(公司债券年度报告（2019年）),37.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202149GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES●HuadianPowerInternationalCorporationLimited,2019SocialResponsibilityReport(ESGReport)(2019年社会责任报告（ESG报告）),accessedMay11,2021,42,http://www.hdpi.com.cn/webfront/fileDownLoad.do?fileId=88640.−Assetshares:HuadianPowerInternationalCorporationLimited,2019AnnualReport,51;ChinaHuadianCorporationLtd.,CorporateSecuritiesAnnualReport(2019)(公司债券年度报告（2019年）),26.●ChinaPowerInternationalDevelopmentLimited,2019SustainableDevelopmentReport(2019年可持续发展报告),accessedMay11,2021,30,https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/chinapower/annual/2019/scesr.pdf.−Assetshares:ChinaPowerInternationalDevelopmentLimited,2019AnnualReport,p.97;StatePowerInvestmentCorporationLimited,CorporateSecuritiesAnnualReport(2020)(公司债券年度报告（2020年）),65.●HunanValinSteelCo.Ltd.,2019AnnualReport(2019年年度报告),41.−Assetshares:HunanValinSteelCo.Ltd.,2019AnnualReport(2019年年度报告),79;REANDAInternational,HunanValinIronandSteelGroupAuditReport:2019(湖南华菱刚体集团有限责任公司：审计报告：2019年度)p.5.ESGReportsReviewedwithNoReportedEmissions●Electricity−ChinaEnergyInvestmentCorporation,2019SocialResponsibilityReport（2019年社会责任报告),accessedMay11,2021,https://www.ceic.com/gjnyjtww/chnzrbg/202006/45bf3dcf0c0e4f6b8dd0c8a7150008c2/files/7ab50447caf64115a67130ddd8bdb542.pdf.−ChinaHuanengGroupCo.Ltd.,2019SustainableDevelopmentReport(2019年可持续发展报告),accessedMay11,2021,https://www.chng.com.cn/documents/20181/0/2bb9c201-64ce-46cf-8601-5ab8f3cc0978.pdf.−ChinaHuadianCorporationLtd.,SustainabilityReport2019(2019年度可持续发展（社会责任）报告),accessedMay11,2021,http://www.chd.com.cn/webfront/doFileDownload.do?serviceId=articleAttach_20201127142511.−ChinaDatangCorporationLtd.,2019SocialResponsibilityReport(2019年社会责任报告),accessedMay11,2021,https://news.bjx.com.cn/html/20200727/1092345.shtml.−StatePowerInvestmentCorporationLtd.,GreenDevelopment:2019CorporateSocialResponsibilityReport(卢瑟发展：企业社会责任报告·2019),accessedMay11,2021,http://sp.spic.com.cn/shzrbg.zip.−ChinaResourcesPowerHoldingsCompanyLtd.,2019SustainableDevelopmentReport(可持续发展报告2019),accessedMay11,2021,https://www.cr-power.com/duty/kcxfzbg/202005/P020200720559605593328.pdf.50­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES−ZhejiangProvincialEnergyGroupCompanyLtd.,2019CorporateSocialResponsibilityReport(2019社会责任报告),accessedMay11,2021,http://www.zjenergy.com.cn/ZNWW/upload/files/2020/11/6c221dac285c2402.pdf.−GuangdongEnergyGroup,2019SocialResponsibilityReport,accessedMay11,2021,http://www.geg.com.cn/ydqk/YdqkWS/book/shzr_2019/index.html.−BeijingJingnengPowerCo.Ltd.,2019CorporateSocialResponsibilityReport(2019年社会责任报告),accessedMay11,2021,http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?productId=600578.●Steelmaking−BaoshanIron&SteelCo.,Ltd.,2019SustainableDevelopmentReport(2019可持续发展报告),accessedMay11,2021,http://res.baowugroup.com/attach/2020/07/23/ab36d2add8f34eda8ffbfec4f4c0c3b8.pdf(thelargestpublicsubsidiaryofBaowu).−HBISCompanyLtd.,2019SocialResponsibilityReport(2019年度社会责任报告),accessedMay11,2021,http://www.hebgtgf.com/download.do?fileid=559a7f47-546d-4359-9870-0dc819917b58(thelargestpublicsubsidiaryofHBIS).−AnsteelGroupCorporationLimited,2019SustainabilityReport,accessedMay11,2021,http://en.ansteel.cn/upload/pdf/2019.pdf.−BeijingJianlongHeavyIndustryGroupCo,SustainableDevelopmentReport2019(2019年可持续发展报告),accessedMay11,2021,http://www.ejianlong.com/social/report.(Theauthordidnotidentifyanypublicsubsidiariesofthiscompany.)−BeijingShougangCo.Ltd.,2019EnvironmentalResponsibilityReport(2019年度环境责任报告书),accessedMay11,2021,http://www.sggf.com.cn/downdoc.jspx?cid=3152(thelargestpublicsubsidiaryofShougangGroup).−ShandongIron&SteelCo.Ltd.,2019SocialResponsibilityReport(2019年社会责任报告),accessedMay11,2021,http://www.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/2020-03-20/600022_20200320_25.pdf(thelargestpublicsubsidiaryofShandongIronandSteelGroup).−FangdaSpecialtySteelCo.Ltd.,2019SocialResponsibilityReport(2019年度社会责任报告),accessedMay11,2021,http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?productId=600507(thelargestpublicsteelmakingsubsidiaryofLiaoningFangdaGroup).●Cement−TangshanJidongCementCo.Ltd.,2019SocialResponsibilityReport(2019年度社会责任报告),accessedMay11,2021,http://www.szse.cn/disclosure/listed/bulletinDetail/index.html?2ff3281e-402f-4eb1-834c-e7a05ba4909d.−HuaxinCementCo.Ltd.,2019CSRReport(2019企业社会责任报告),ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202151GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESaccessedMay11,2021,http://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/2020-04-29/600801_20200429_13.pdf.FirmswithNoEmissionsReportsinAnnualReportsandforWhichNoESGReportsCouldBeIdentifiedNoESGreportsfrom2019couldbefoundoneithercompanywebsitesor(whereapplicable)stockexchangedisclosurerecordsforthefollowingfirms:●Electricity−ZhejiangZhenengElectricPowerCo.Ltd.,thelargestpublicsubsidiaryofZhejiangProvincialEnergyGroup−GuangdongElectricPowerDevelopmentCo.Ltd.,thelargestpublicsubsidiaryofGuangdgongEnergyGroup211−BeijingEnergyGroup●Steelmaking−JiangsuShagangCo.Ltd.,thelargestpublicsubsidiaryofJiangsuShagangGroup−ShougangGroup−ShandongIronandSteelGroup−HunanValinIronandSteelGroup212−BengangGrouporitslargestpublicsubsidiary,BenxiSteelPlatesCo.Ltd.−LiaoningFangdaGroup●Cement−HongshiHoldingsGroupB.ElectricityNationalData(Tables2–3,5–6)NationaldataoninstalledcapacitycompositionwastakenfromtheCEC,China’snationalelectricityindustryassociation.●2017andearlier:ChinaElectricityCouncil,“DataReportTableofBasicElectricityStatisticsfor2017”(2017年电力统计基本数据一览表),October9,2018,accessedMay11,2021,https://cec.org.cn/detail/index.html?3-126875.●2019and2020:ChinaElectricityCouncil,“DataReportTableofNationalElectricityIndustryStatisticsfor2020”(2020年全国电力工业统计快报数据一览表),January22,2021,accessedApril23,2021,https://www.cec.org.cn/detail/index.html?3-292820.52­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES−2020coal:ChinaElectricityCouncil,“Reporton2020–2021NationalElectricitySupplyandDemandSituation,Analysis,andForecast”)(2020–2021年度全国电力供需形势分析预测报告),February2,2021,accessedApril22,2021,https://www.cec.org.cn/detail/index.html?3-293198.OfficialFirmData(Tables2–3,5–7)Officialfirmdataon2019installedcapacitycompositionwastakenfromcorporateenvironmental,social,andgovernance(ESG)reports.(Reportson2020werenotuniformlyavailableasofthepreparationofthisreport.)Firmsgenerallybreakoutcapacitybythermal,hydropower,solar,wind,and,whereappropriate,nuclear;detailsonthermalresourcecompositionacrosscoal,gas,oil,andbiomassarenotuniformlyavailable.Amongfirmsthathadpublishedtheir2020ESGreportsasofthepreparationofthisreport,severaldidstate2020coalinstalledcapacity.Their2020ESGreportsarealsolistedbelow.●ChinaEnergyInvestmentCorporation,2019SocialResponsibilityReport(2019年社会责任报告),accessedMay11,2021,43,https://www.ceic.com/gjnyjtww/chnzrbg/202006/45bf3dcf0c0e4f6b8dd0c8a7150008c2/files/7ab50447caf64115a67130ddd8bdb542.pdf;ChinaEnergyInvestmentCorporation,2020SocialResponsibilityReport(2020年社会责任报告),accessedJune28,2021,9,40,https://www.ceic.com/gjnyjtww/chnzrbg/202105/0cd2c68c8f0a4e94b594643557eeb0c6/files/fb06d2c1fb2e44239cff2f9d5f0e8100.pdf.●ChinaHuanengGroupCo.Ltd,2019SustainableDevelopmentReport(2019年可持续发展报告),accessedMay11,2021,84–85,https://www.chng.com.cn/documents/20181/0/2bb9c201-64ce-46cf-8601-5ab8f3cc0978.pdf.●ChinaHuadianCorporationLtd.,SustainabilityReport2019(2019年度可持续发展（社会责任）报告),accessedMay11,2021,44,http://www.chd.com.cn/webfront/doFileDownload.do?serviceId=articleAttach_20201127142511.●ChinaDatangCorporationLtd.,2019SocialResponsibilityReport(2019年社会责任报告),accessedMay11,2021,7,https://news.bjx.com.cn/html/20200727/1092345.shtml.●StatePowerInvestmentCorporationLtd.,GreenDevelopment:2019CorporateSocialResponsibilityReport(卢瑟发展：企业社会责任报告·2019),accessedMay11,2021,7–18,http://sp.spic.com.cn/shzrbg.zip;2020CorporateSocialResponsibilityReport(企业社会责任报告),accessedMay21,2021,12–13,http://sp.spic.com.cn/shzr/2020/%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%87%E5%AE%A3%E4%BC%A0%E5%86%8C.pdf.●ChinaResourcesPowerHoldingsCompanyLtd.,2019SustainableDevelopmentReport(可持续发展报告2019),accessedMay11,2021,33,https://www.cr-power.com/duty/kcxfzbg/202005/P020200720559605593328.pdf;ChinaResourcesPowerHoldingsCompanyLtd.,2020SustainableDevelopmentReport(可持续发展报告2020),accessedJune28,2021,20,https://www.cr-power.com/duty/kcxfzbg/202104/P020210429759401739293.pdf.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202153GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES●ZhejiangProvincialEnergyGroupCompanyLtd.,2019CorporateSocialResponsibilityReport(2019社会责任报告),accessedMay11,2021,25,29,http://www.zjenergy.com.cn/ZNWW/upload/files/2020/11/6c221dac285c2402.pdf.BreakoutswerenotavailableforBeijingEnergyGroup.TheauthorwasunabletoidentifyasinglecorporateparentasasourceofcentralizedreportingforcapacityacrosstheShandongWeiqiaogroupofcompanies,controlledbythelateentrepreneurZhangShipingandhisfamily.Theauthorreviewedannualreportsandwebsitesfromtwomajormembers,ChinaHongqiaoGroupandShandongWeiqiaoPioneeringGroup,andwasunabletoidentifybreakouts.FirmCoalCapacityData(Unofficial)(Tables2and6)GlobalEnergyMonitor’sGlobalCoalPlantTracker(GCPT)reportsglobalownershipofcoalplantsgreaterthan30MWbaseduponopen-sourceresearchandisthebestpublic,nonsubscriptionplant-leveldatabaseofcorporatecoalcapacityinChina.Theyreport1,043GWofcoalcapacityasofJanuary2021inChina.TheChinaElectricityCouncil,China’snationalelectricityindustryassociation,reported1,080GWofcoalcapacityinChinaasoftheendof2020.Thedatabaserecordsfirm-levelinvestmentshares(aswellasparenttotalinvestmentshares,wheresubsidiariesarethedirectinvestors).TheauthorwasunabletoidentifyfromGCPT’swebsitethespecificcriteriabywhichitdeterminesownership.●GlobalEnergyMonitor,GlobalCoalPlantTracker,GlobalOwnershipofCoalPlants(MW),January2021,accessedApril21,2021,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bcWh2stWSwRdxAP-ot78sbMkXUcPwfS7HMJhFZ9jECw/edit?usp=sharing.C.SteelmakingandCementNationalOutputandExportShares(Charts1and2andpassim)DataonsteelandcementoutputandexportsaresourcedfromtheNationalBureauofStatistics.●NationalBureauofStatistics,AnnualData,Industry:IndustrialProductOutputVolume(工业：工业产品产量),items“CementProductionVolume(10,000Tons)”(水泥产量（万吨）)and“CrudeSteelProductionVolume(10,000Tons)”(粗钢产量（万吨）),years2004–19,accessedJune28,2021,https://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01&zb=A0E0H&sj=2020.●NationalBureauofStatistics,“AnnualData,InternationalEconomicTrade:ExportsVolumesandValuesforMainGoods:ExportVolumesforMainGoods”(对外经济贸易：出口主要货物数量和金额：主要货物出口数量),items“CementandCementClinkerExportVolumes(10,000Tons)”(水泥及水泥熟料出口数量（万吨）)and“SteelMaterialsExportVolumes(10,000Tons)”(钢材出口数量（万吨）),years2004–19,accessedMay11,2021,https://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01&zb=A0E0H&sj=2020.54­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESFirm-LevelCrudeSteelOutputandFirm-Level&NationalInstalledClinkerCapacity(Table3)Dataonfirm-levelcrudesteeloutputin2019istakenfromworldsteel.(Dataon2020wasnotavailableasofthepreparationofthisreport.)Dataoninstalledclinkercapacityin2020istakenfromtheChinaCementAssociation.●Firm-LevelSteelOutput:worldsteel,“WorldSteelinFigures2020,”accessedApril21,2021,https://www.worldsteel.org/en/dam/jcr:f7982217-cfde-4fdc-8ba0-795ed807f513/World%2520Steel%2520in%2520Figures%25202020i.pdfw.●Firm-LevelClinkerCapacity:CCA,“ChinaCementAssociationAnnouncestheTop-50FirmsbyClinkerCapacityin2021”(中国水泥协会公布2021年水泥熟料产能50强名单),March25,2021,accessedJune25,2021,http://www.dcement.cn/Item/171108.aspx.●NationalClinkerCapacity:ChenBolin,“ChineseCementIndustry2020EconomicPerformanceand2021Forecast”(2020年中国水泥行业经济运行及2021年展望),DigitalCement(数字水泥网),February2,2021,accessedApril22,2021,http://www.dcement.com/Item/169754.aspx.(DigitalCementisanindustrynewsandinformationportaloperatedbytheCCA,andChenBolinwasCCAvicesecretaryatthetimeofthisdocument’spublication.)D.CorporateTargetsEmissionsReductionTargets(Table5)ThefollowingdocumentscontaininformationonemissionsreductionssetbytheChinesefirmsexaminedinthisreport.IneachcaseexceptforTaiwanCement,theyhavebeenidentifiedasthefirstpublicannouncementsofthesetargetsoncorporateWeChatchannels.●Electricity−CEIC:“ChinaEnergyInvestmentCorporationPartyCommitteeTransmits,Studies,andImplementstheSpiritoftheCentralEconomicWorkConference”(国家能源集团党组传达学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神),CEICWeChatchannel(国家能源之声),December20,2020,accessedMay11,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5MTE2MDk0OA==&mid=2650356983&idx=1&sn=0b8b0e9cc455d5a3198601711d2c2361&chksm=beb453ec89%20c3dafa270e609d529ce0da13012eac350487d3aaed25563f10e44f442509c8b21f#rd.−Huadian:“Part2oftheReportSeriesTheUnchangingFoundationIsStruggle,onDevelopment:SteadyHelm,StrivingOar,andMovingForwardinHighSpirits”(【“不变的底色是奋斗”系列报道之二·发展篇】稳舵奋楫势昂扬),HuadianWeChatchannel(中国华电),January28,2021,accessedApril28,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5Mjk3MDg2MQ==&mid=2652663697&idx=1&sn=a841d24e4ac7c5d6b3a2ecb0ef23391f&chksm=8b8dc593bcfa4c854ac6612854e417a07aac018c1f91e52f3776f392377679d3c65a14960a17#rd.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202155GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES−Datang:“LaunchingaSecondNewInnovationJourneyChinaDatangHoldsIts2021WorkMeeting”(开启二次创业新征程｜中国大唐集团召开2021年工作会议),ChinaDatangWeChatchannel(中国大唐集团公司),accessedApril28,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Exvyq8gCoUfPkjVjitVOLA;“UnderstandinOneImageChinaDatangCarbonPeakingandCarbonNeutralityActionPlanOutline”(一图读懂｜中国大唐碳达峰碳中和行动纲要),ChinaDatangWeChatchannel(中国大唐集团公司),accessedJuly2,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4NDY4MzkyNA==&mid=2654066687&idx=2&sn=611b10b54df4a746f87fed3359f70999&chksm=84260a04b351831293a3f7dd644e5ef44a61acccac829ebb45d681e5e34ef36b7213054d8fc8#rd.−SPIC:“QianZhimin:TheEraoftheMajorGreen,SmartEnergyBrandHasArrived”(钱志民：绿色智慧能源大品牌时代来了),SPICWeChatchannel(国家电力投资集团有限公司),December8,2020,accessedApril28,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t01uPxjsKGAa7838v7rq2Q.−ChinaResources:“NetProfitsSurge43.8%inNewEnergyBusiness,ChinaResourcesElectricPower’sNetEarningsWereHKD7.583bnLastYear”(新能源业务净利润劲增43.8%，华润电力去年净赚75.83亿港元),ChinaResourcesWeChatchannel(华润),March18,2021,accessedMay11,2021,linkedhere.●Cement−TaiwanCement:TaiwanCementCorporation,“TCCCommitmenttoCarbonNeutralityin2050,”accessedMay11,2021,https://www.taiwancement.com/en/esgGhgCarbonEmissions.html;TaiwanCementCorporation,2020CorporateSustainabilityReport,accessedJuly2,2021,https://www.taiwancement.com/en/csrReportRead.html?ch=all.●Steelmaking−Baowu:“MajorNewsACarbonEmissionsDeclarationfromtheWorld’sBiggestSteelFirm,ChinaBaowu:Aimingfor‘CarbonPeaking’in2023andforAchieving‘CarbonNeutrality’in2050”(重磅全球最大钢企中国宝武碳减排宣言：力争2023年“碳达峰”2050年实现“碳中和”),BaowuWeChatchannel(中国宝武),January20,2021,accessedApril28,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5MDEzNzA5Ng==&mid=2654852246&idx=1&sn=d479656526315c56691b0101482a16af&chksm=bd801af18af793e733b0f5cdd0d7d101eef0150feb831bddf9d705673f715b6128e57e0619d0#rd.−HBIS:“HBISAnnouncesLow-CarbonGreenDevelopmentActionPlan”(河钢集团发布低碳绿色发展行动计划),HBISWeChatchannel(河钢集团),March12,2021,accessedMay11,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s__biz=MzA5MjA2Mjk3MA==&mid=2653109712&idx=1&sn=9539988bd1af53094e892177fc7752db&chksm=8ba54845bcd2c1533f04fc3a53789adb1e68c0dc5c3674a4007aea087b970cbaa2de89d27e83#rd.56­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESOtherTargets(Table7)Electricity:ManyofthesourcesinsectionD,part1abovedescribetargetsfor“renewable,”“nonfossil,”“low-carbon,”or“clean”energycapacityexpansionduringthecoming5–10years.Thefollowingsourcesdescribetargetsnotalreadyinthosesources:●CEIC:“CEICWillAdd70–80GWofRenewableEnergyduringthe‘14thFive-YearPlan’”(国家能源集团“十四五”新增7000–8000万千瓦可再生能源),CEICWeChatchannel(国家能源之声),December18,2020,accessedMay11,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5MTE2MDk0OA==&mid=2650356978&idx=1&sn=3599b8b1fe550e567430802f3cab0bb9&chksm=beb453e989c3daff5236d3df19968e73057df6fabd3a95e16c3e4159f9ead76708ff2f2d51b0#rd;“CEICHoldsEcologicalandEnvironmentalProtectionLeadingSmallGroupMeeting”(国家能源集团召开生态环境保护领导小组会议),CEICWeChatchannel(国家能源之声),January6,2021,accessedMay11,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5MTE2MDk0OA==&mid=2650357352&idx=2&sn=bb9c739a4aa3d6d0fac8d399d8c04c14&chksm=beb4517389c3d865de12898b7fe063542239086a39b33bcf5d44162919210a77531239961e37#rd.●Huaneng:Huaneng,“HuanengHolds2021WorkMeeting:Aimsat6Big‘NewLeaderships,’LaunchesaSecondNewInnovationJourney”(华能召开2021年工作会议；锚定六大“新领先”开启二次创业新征程),January18,2021,accessedMay11,2021,http://www.chng.com.cn/detail_jtyw/-/article/ccgb60va5Gwc/v/905993.html.●Huadian:MuyuXuandShivaniSingh,“Exclusive:ChinaHuadiantoShut3GWofCoal-FiredPowerCapacityby2025—chairman,”March8,2021,accessedMay11,2021,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament-huadian-exclusive/exclusive-china-huadian-to-shut-3-gw-of-coal-fired-power-capacity-by-2025-chairman-idUSKBN2B00V1.●SPIC:“TranscriptofCarbonNeutralityCountdown”(《碳中和倒计时》文字实录),SPICWeChatchannel(国家电力投资集团有限公司),April11,2021,accessedJune27,2021,availableathttps://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DDPT-htTaKopToDCOS3rBg.●ZhejiangEnergy:“ZhejiangEnergyGroupStrivestoBeaPace-Setterin‘CarbonPeakingandCarbonNeutrality’GreenDevelopment”(浙能集团致力于打造“碳达峰碳中和”绿色发展“排头兵”),ZhejiangEnergyWeChatchannel(浙江能源),March30,2021,accessedMay11,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5OTg2MzIwOA==&mid=2658689626&idx=1&sn=672fb72e65c50b992c2465d3027bd5e6&chksm=8b771d9dbc00948b1328b2724b1f4ec3b520fb888c96d51398550407a90943d814b0763eba93#rd.●BeijingEnergy:PartyCommitteePropagandaDepartment,“TenderWon!A400MWWindBaseProject”(中标！400MW风电大基地项目),BeijingEnergyWeChatchannel(京能集团),December12,2020,accessedMay11,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xFHsI9zLneB-QAWpGz9f3Q.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202157GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESSteelmaking:HBISsupplementeditspledgeannouncementwithadditionaldetailsaboutrelatedtargetsfor2025aswellasspecificprojectsitseekstopursueduringthe2021–25period.●“AchievingCarbonPeakingin2022:ThisIsHowHBISWillDoIt”(2022年实现碳达峰河钢集团这样“干”),WorldMetalsReportWeChatchannel(世界金属导报),March14,2021,accessedApril29,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5ODEzMjgwNA==&mid=2656702107&idx=2&sn=3c51e422b51f0cadcaf9abde2a802736&chksm=8b3898b0bc4f11a6cb6bc5dd965cdf302f974be42fc56fa184d1a6f8c8adaa65187267a6c86b#rd.E.ListofIntervieweesAllinterviewswereconductedviavideoorcellphonecalls.Intervieweesarelistedanonymouslyexceptforthosewhogavepermissiontobenamed.1.Carbonmarketconsultantatmultinationalfirm,January20212.ProfessoratChineseuniversitystudyingcarbonmarkets,January20213.FormerChinesegovernmentofficial,March20214.Powersectorconsultantatmultinationalfirm,March20215.FormerChinesecement-sectorexecutive,March20216.Carbonmarketconsultant#1atChinesefirm,March20217.LucasLiutongZhang,director,WaterRockEnergyEconomics,March20218.Carbonmarketconsultant#2atChinesefirm,March20219.FormerChineseenergy-sectorexecutive,March202110.MetalsandmininganalystatAmericanfinancialresearchprovider,March202111.Researcher#1atAmericanuniversityworkingonChineseenergyandheavyindustry,March202112.Researcher#2atAmericanuniversityworkingonChineseenergyandheavyindustry,March202113.Researcher#3atAmericanuniversityworkingonChineseenergyandheavyindustry,March202114.Headofcement-sectormultinationalfirm’sChinaoffice,March202115.KarenScrivener,fullprofessor,ConstructionMaterialsLaboratory,ÉcolepolytechniquefédéraledeLausanne,March202116.CementtechnologyresearcheratChinesefirm,March202158­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES17.Partneratmultinationalconsultingfirm,April202118.Partneratmultinationalconsultingfirm,April202119.LiHongmei,headofEnglishEditorial,MysteelGlobal,April202120.Steel-sectoreditoratmultinationaltradepublication,April202121.Energy-sectorresearcheratChinesethinktank,April202122.FinancialanalystatAmericaninvestmentfirm,May2021ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202159GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES1.“StatementbyH.E.XiJinpingPresidentofthePeople’sRepublicofChinaattheGeneralDebateofthe75thSessionoftheUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly,”MinistryofForeignAffairsofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,September22,2020,accessedApril21,2021,https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1817098.shtml.2.NRDC(NationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionofthePeople’sRepublicofChina),“EnhancedActionsonClimateChange:China’sIntendedNationallyDeterminedContribution,”June30,2015,accessedApril21,2021,https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/China%20First/China%27s%20First%20NDC%20Submission.pdf.ThetargetswereformallysubmittedasIntendedNationallyDeterminedContributionsandconvertedtoNationallyDeterminedContributionsuponChina’sratificationoftheParisAgreementinSeptember2016.ParisAgreement,Paris,December12,2015,UnitedNationsTreatyCollection,chap.27,sec.7.d,accessedApril21,2021,https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en;MengpinGeandKellyLevin,“INSIDER:What’sChangingasCountriesTurnINDCsintoNDCs?5EarlyInsights,”WorldResourcesInstitute,April18,2018,accessedApril21,2021,https://www.wri.org/insights/insider-whats-changing-countries-turn-indcs-ndcs-5-early-insights.3.ClimateAnalysisIndicatorsTool(CAIT)datafor2018,accessedApril21,2021,https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions.In2018,GHGChineseemissionscomprised26.9percentoftotalglobalGHGemissionsexcludinglanduse,land-usechange,andforestry(LULUCF).4.QuantitativedatacamefromamixofChinesegovernmentandindustryassociationsaswellasopen-sourcedatabases,describedintheappendix.TheauthoridentifiedcorporateemissionsreductiontargetsthroughkeywordsearchesofcorporateWeChatchannels(Chinesefirms);reviewsofcorporatewebsitesandindependenttarget-trackingdatabases(internationalfirms);andexaminationofcorporateESGreportsandannualreports(bothChineseandinternationalfirms).Theauthoralsoperformedabroaderdocumentreviewtoestablishcontextforfirmbehavior,examiningpolicydocumentsfromnationalgovernmentauthorities;pressreleasesandpublicstatementsfromindustryassociations;andacademicliterature,researchreports,andnewsarticles.ExpertintervieweesincludedformerseniorexecutivesatChineseheavyindustryandenergyfirms;sectorresearchersatChinesegovernmentandcorporateresearchinstitutesandatinternationalresearchinstitutions;marketparticipants,analysts,andconsultantsinChineseheavyindustryandenergy;seniortradepublicationjournalistsinheavyindustry;andaformerChinesegovernmentofficial.5.Seeappendix,sectionB,parti.6.LauriMyllyvirtaandXinyiShen,“ChinaPlanstoCutCoalHeatingAgain,butCanItAvoidAnotherCrisis?,”Greenpeace,October1,2018,accessedMay10,2021,https://unearthed.NOTES60­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESgreenpeace.org/2018/01/10/china-coal-heating-winter-crisis-pollution/;EricYepandCindyLiang,”Chinaproposaltoreplacecoalinover7millionhomesmayboostwinterLNGdemand,”S&PGlobalPlatts,September30,2020,accessedAugust5,2021,https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/podcasts/focus/050621-costs-policy-competition-us-nuclear-generation.7.EnergyFoundationChina,“China’sNewGrowthPathways:Fromthe14thFive-YearPlantoCarbonNeutrality,”December2020,accessedMay10,2021,43,https://www.efchina.org/Reports-en/report-lceg-20201210-en.8.PeterLevi,TiffanyVass,HanaMandová,andAlexandreGouy,“TrackingIndustry2020,”IEA,June2020,accessedMay2,2021,https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-industry-2020.9.ChinaNationalBuildingMaterialsGroupchiefengineerPengShoustatedinMarch2021thatthebuildingmaterialsindustrycomprised20percentofnationalemissions;officialdatafromtheChinaBuildingMaterialsFederationreportsthatcementwasresponsibleforaround85percentofsectoralemissions,or1.32billiontonsofCO2,withmorethan90percentofthoseemissionsfromclinkerproductionandcoalcombustionasopposedtoelectricity.ChinaBuildingMaterialsFederation,“ChinaBuildingMaterialsIndustryEmissionsReport(2020)”(中国建筑材料工业碳排放报告（2020年度）),DigitalCementWeChatchannel(数字水泥网),April19,2021,accessedApril19,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5NjA4ODExNQ==&mid=2654118726&idx=5&sn=d5bf6337eb5fb1fb4446ce3a75698ffd&chksm=8b737a1abc04f30c5d378269ca13d93f7979fd8a8d5c0b422c7a182b7d159cdcab9d7b68a73c#rd(hereafterreferredtoasthe“CBMF2020EmissionsReport”).Steelindustryrepresentativesfrequentlystatethatthesectorisresponsibleformorethan15percentofnationalemissions.See,forinstance,commentsbyChinaIronandSteelPresidentHeWenboinMarch2021.ChinaIronandSteelAssociation(hereafterreferredtoas“CISA”),“CommitteeMemberHeWenboTalksHotTopicsintheSteelIndustryincludingReducingCarbonEmissionsandControllingProduction”(何文波委员谈碳减排、控产量等当前钢铁行业热点问题),CISAWeChatchannel(中国钢铁工业协会),March3,2021,accessedMarch12,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwNDMzMDQyMg==&mid=2650918057&idx=1&sn=15816fba86f6e5af4144137a7ac51ef6&chksm=80d8ea70b7af6366fc745a6ff0e13848e692f347b4e081cebd43970a980284ff86d04f04ffae#rd.10.Calculatedfrom2017datainYuliShan,QiHuang,DaboGuan,andKlausHubacek,“ChinaCO2EmissionAccounts2016–2017.”ScientificData7,no.54(2020),https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0393-y.“Smeltingandpressingofferrousmetals”isestimatedtoaccountfor1,677mtofCO2emissions(18.0percent),while“nonmetalmineralproducts”areresponsiblefor1,171mt(12.5percent).ThecontentsofthesesectionsaredefinedinChina’sIndustrialClassificationsforNationalEconomicActivitieshandbook.“Smeltingandpressingofferrousmetals,”inadditiontosteelmaking,alsoincludestheproductionofotherironalloys.“Nonmetalmineralproducts,”inadditiontocementproduction,alsoincludesseveralindustrieswithmoremodestcarbonfootprints,includingglassandceramicsmanufacturing.SeeP.R.C.NationalStandardGB/T4754-2017,IndustrialClassificationsforNationalEconomicActivities(国民经济行业分类),effectiveOctober1,2017,accessedMay10,2021,http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjbz/hyflbz/201710/ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202161GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESP020180402592793000880.pdf.11.ThesubsequentdiscussionofsteelmakingprocessesreliesuponAliHasanbeigiandCeciliaSpringer,“HowCleanIstheU.S.SteelIndustry?AnInternationalBenchmarkingofEnergyandCO2Intensities,”GlobalEfficiencyIntelligence,November2019,accessedMay11,2021,36–39,https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5877e86f9de4bb8bce72105c/t/602f46b2474168392c11e8c0/1613711096033/How+Clean+is+the+U.S.+Steel+Industry.pdf(hereafterreferredtoas“HasanbeigiandSpringer2019”)aswellasworldsteel,“AboutSteel,”accessedMay3,2021,https://www.worldsteel.org/about-steel.html.12.HasanbeigiandSpringer2019,22.13.Orthetal.(2007)estimatethat70percentofCO2emissionsintheBF-BoFroutecomefromblastfurnaceoperation.HasanbeigiandSpringer(2019,21)notethatsignificanceoffuelmixesinblastfurnacesfordeterminingcarbonfootprints;CanadaandMexico,whichuselargesharesofnaturalgasinblastfurnacereduction,havecarbonemissionsintensitiesofaround1.5tC/ton.14.See,e.g.,MarcusKirschen,KarimBadr,andHerbertPfeifer,“InfluenceofDirectReducedIronontheEnergyBalanceoftheElectricArcFurnaceinSteelIndustry,”Energy36(2011):6146–55,6148;FanandFriedmann,833.15.Forinstance,Indianauthorities’2030targetemissionsintensityforDRI-EAF/inductionfurnaceproduction(2.6–2.7tCO2/ton)exceedstheirtargetsforBF-BoFproduction(2.2–2.4tCO2/ton)becauseofthehighfootprintofcoal-basedDRIproduction.MinistryofSteeloftheGovernmentofIndia,“TemplateonINDC—Mitigation,”accessedMay3,2021,https://steel.gov.in/sites/default/files/TEMPLATES-%20MITIGATION_0.pdf.16.GlobalConcreteandCementAssociation,“AboutCement&Concrete,”accessedApril23,2021,https://gccassociation.org/our-story-cement-and-concrete/.17.InternationalEnergyAgencyandtheCementSustainabilityInitiative,“TechnologyRoadmap:Low-CarbonTransitionintheCementIndustry,”2018,accessedMay10,2021,12,https://www.wbcsd.org/contentwbc/download/4586/61682/1.18.Theauthorreviewedanumberoffirm-levelandsectoralestimatesforsharesofCO2emissionsincementproductionfromelectricitygeneration,allofwhichsuggestedasharebelow10percent:●TheheadoftheSustainableDevelopmentDepartmentatHuaxinCement,China’sfifth-largestcementproducerbyclinkercapacity,estimatedtheshareofCO2emissionsincementproductionfromelectricityuseas2percent,comparedto63percentfromindustrialprocessesand35percentfromfuelcombustion.DuSisiandChenXuewan,“China’sUntestedCarbonMarket”(中国碳市场待考),Caixin(财新),January25,2021,accessedApril23,2021,http://weekly.caixin.com/2021-01-23/101654673.html.●HasanbeigiandSpringer’sbenchmarkingreportonCO2emissionsfromcementproductioninCaliforniaestimatesa5percentemissionsshareforelectricityfromtotalcarbonemissions.AliHasanbeigiandCeciliaSpringer,“California’sCementIndustry:62­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESFailingtheClimateChallenge,”February2019,GlobalEnergyIntelligence,accessedMay3,2021,3,https://buyclean.org/media/2019/04/CA-Cement-benchmarking-report-Rev-Final.pdf.●LafargeHolcimreportsthataround6percentofitsper-tonscope1andscope2CO2emissionswerescope2.LafargeHolcim,2019IntegratedAnnualReport,42.●Masanetetal.(2021)estimatethatelectricityconsumptiondrives9.2percentoftotalcementproductemissionsinChina.ZhiCao,EricMasanet,AnupamTiwari,andSahilAkolawala,“DecarbonizingConcrete:DeepDecarbonizationPathwaysfortheCementandConcretecycleintheUnitedStates,India,andChina,”NorthwesternUniversityIndustrialSustainabilityAnalysisLaboratory,March2021,accessedJuly13,2021,13,https://www.climateworks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Decarbonizing_Concrete.pdf.19.FanandFriedmann2021,833.20.S.JulioFriedmann,ZhiyuanFan,andKeTang,“Low-CarbonHeatSolutionsforHeavyIndustry:Sources,Options,andCostsToday,”ColumbiaUniversitySIPACenteronGlobalEnergyPolicy,October2019,accessedMay10,2021,46–47,https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/file-uploads/LowCarbonHeat-CGEP_Report_100219-2_0.pdf;FanandFriedmann2021,856.21.Foradeeperdiscussion,seeInternationalEnergyAgencyandtheCementSustainabilityInitiative,“TechnologyRoadmap:Low-CarbonTransitionintheCementIndustry,”2018,accessedMay10,2021,32–46,https://www.wbcsd.org/contentwbc/download/4586/61682/1.22.HasanbeigiandSpringer2019,23–24.23.ChinaElectricityCouncil,“Reporton2020–2021NationalElectricitySupplyandDemandSituation,Analysis,andForecast”)(2020–2021年度全国电力供需形势分析预测报告),February2,2021,accessedApril22,2021,https://www.cec.org.cn/detail/index.html?3-293198.24.For2018,theInternationalEnergyAgency(“IEA”)reportsthefollowing:●4,772TWhofgrosscoalelectricitygenerationinChina●11,238TWhofgrosselectricitygenerationworldwidebyOECDcountriesand15,492TWhbynon-OECDcountries,totaling26,730TWh●A38percentshareforcoalinglobalgrosselectricityproduction,implyingaround10,500TWhofcoalgenerationTakentogether,thesefiguresimplythatChinesecoalgenerationcomprisesaround47percentofglobalcoalgeneration.IEA,“ElectricityInformation:Overview,”July2020,accessedApril22,2021,https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-information-overview;IEADataandStatisticsDataBrowser,“EnergyTopic:ElectricityandHeat,Indicator:ElectricityGenerationbySource,CountryorRegion:People’sRepublicofChina,”accessedApril22,2021,https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics?country=CHINA&fuel=Electricity%20and%20ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202163GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESheat&indicator=ElecGenByFuel.25.CISA,“CISAHoldsNewsConferencetoReport2020IndustryOperationalSituation;ExplainsinDetailKeyIssuesIncludingHowtoBalanceReducingCrudeSteelProductionwithIncreasesinSteelMaterialConsumption”(钢协召开信息发布会通报2020年行业运行情况详解粗钢产量下降与钢材消费增长如何平衡等热点问题),CISAWeChatchannel(中国钢铁工业协会),accessedApril22,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/qtCwdYIhSMvUEV-pjfeHEA;ChenBolin(陈柏霖),“ChineseCementIndustry2020EconomicPerformanceand2021Forecast”(2020年中国水泥行业经济运行及2021年展望),DigitalCement(数字水泥网),February2,2021,accessedApril22,2021,http://www.dcement.com/Item/169754.aspx(hereafter“CCA2020–2021PerformanceandForecastReport”).26.WorldCementAssociation,“WorldWideCementProduction2018&Forecast2030,”accessedApril21,2021,https://www.worldcementassociation.org/images/info-graphics/001-World-Wide-Cement-Production.pdf;worldsteel,“WorldSteelinFigures2019,”accessedApril21,2021,9,https://www.worldsteel.org/en/dam/jcr:96d7a585-e6b2-4d63-b943-4cd9ab621a91/World%2520Steel%2520in%2520Figures%25202019.pdf;appendix,sectionC,parti.27.WorldCementAssociation,“LargestCementProducers,”accessedApril21,2021,https://www.worldcementassociation.org/images/info-graphics/facts/worlds-largest-cenment-producers.jpg.Seealsoappendix,sectionB,partiiiandsectionC,partii.28.Clinkerisanintermediateoutputincementproductionthatresultsfromheatingarawmixtureoflimestoneandothermaterialssuchasclaysorshaleinarotatingkiln.Clinkerproductiondrivesmostcarbonemissionsfromcement.Thechemicalreactionsthatcreateclinkerreleasecarbondioxide,andkilnheatinginChinareliesalmostentirelyuponcoal.29.Seeappendix,sectionB,partiii.30.LuoGuoping(罗国平),“PrivateSteelFirmsin2020:ProfitsofRMB161bn,Up6.1%Year-on-Year”(2020年民营钢企盈利1610亿元同比增6.1%),Caixin(财新),February3,2021,accessedApril23,2021,http://www.caixin.com/2021-02-03/101659663.html;DongCaiping(董才平),“ThoroughlyImplementingtheNewDevelopmentConcept,PlanningOutNewActions,AcceleratingtheAdvancementofHigh-QualityDevelopmentintheIronandSteelIndustry”(贯彻新发展理念谋划新举措加快推进钢铁工业高质量发展),speechattheChinaChamberofCommerceforMetallurgicalEnterprises2020AnnualMeeting,February2,2021,ChinaChamberofCommerceforMetallurgicalEnterprisesWeChatchannel(全联冶金商会),accessedApril23,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NDU1ODI3OQ==&mid=2651598168&idx=1&sn=2ac016a8d8500da0af0aeaa307ef5882&chksm=bd7d75708a0afc66cb27dafb13111ebb1ef2cb4792cf8d2424b99b291e1e50acc9766d9764de#rd.31.MorganHervé-Mignucci,XueyingWang,DavidNelson,andUdayVaradarajan,“SlowingtheGrowthofCoalPowerinChina:theRoleofFinanceinState-OwnedEnterprises,”ClimatePolicyInitiative,December2015,accessedApril23,2021,https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Slowing-the-Growth-of-Coal-Power-in-China-%E2%80%93-the-Role-of-Finance-in-State-Owned-Enterprises.pdf.64­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES32.ChinaCoalIndustryAssociation,“ChinaCoalIndustryAssociationReleasestheTop50ChineseCoalFirms(ListAttached)”(中国煤炭工业协会发布2020中国煤炭企业50强（附名单）),ChinaCoalAssociationWeChatchannel(煤炭工业网),August17,2020,accessedApril28,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3NTcwMDg0Mg==&mid=2650313048&idx=1&sn=2d6056e7633f9a5de5879d6adbd3e17c&chksm=8760be5db017374bf8af722f709bfa7be8b51561c4e0e1b47e9f83e63f1e47e921e13dfc8529#rd.33.Datafrom2019wasthemostrecentofficialinformationasofthisreport’sdrafting.Seeappendix,sectionB,partii.34.See,e.g.,ChinaElectricPowerYearbook2018,ChinaElectricityPress,2018,756–60.35.WendyLeutert,“State-OwnedEnterprisesinContemporaryChina,”acceptedversionfortheRoutledgeHandbookofState-OwnedEnterprises(2020),accessedApril23,2021,8,https://static1.squarespace.com/static/578f7e4ac534a5c08c478743/t/5e781bb364f35a2e28936903/1584929716451/State-Owned+Enterprises+in+Contemporary+China_Leutert+%28Accepted+Version%29+.pdf(hereafter“Leutert2020”).36.“ChenDerongAppointedasBaowuGroupChairmanandPartySecretary”(陈德荣出任宝武集团董事长、党委书记),Yicai(第一财经),June28,2018,accessedApril28,2021,https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1604493941920374256&wfr=spider&for=pc.37.“MajorPersonnelNews!WangXiangxiAppointedChairmanandPartySecretaryofCEIC”(重磅人事！王祥喜任国家能源集团董事长、党组书记),EnergyMagazineWeChatchannel(能源杂志),March4,2019,accessedApril28,2021,https://news.bjx.com.cn/html/20190304/966462.shtml.AnotherexampleisSPICchairmanQianZhimin;hebuilthiscareerinnuclearpowerbutspenttwoyearsintheearly2010asavicechairattheNationalEnergyAdministration,theenergysector’sformalregulator.“QianZhiminBecomesChairmanandPartySecretaryofChinaEnergyInvestmentGroup(CV)”(钱智民任国家电力投资集团董事长、党组书记（图简历）),EconomicDaily(经济日报),January3,2018,accessedMay11,2021,https://www.sohu.com/a/214375807_120702.38.DanielRosen,WendyLeutert,andShanGuo,“MissingLink:CorporateGovernanceinChina’sStateSector,”AsiaSocietyandRhodiumGroup,November2018,accessedApril28,2021,9,https://asiasociety.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/ASNC_Rhodium_SOEReport_0.pdf.39.DanielRosen,WendyLeutert,andShanGuo,“MissingLink:CorporateGovernanceinChina’sStateSector,”AsiaSocietyandRhodiumGroup,November2018,accessedApril28,2021,12,https://asiasociety.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/ASNC_Rhodium_SOEReport_0.pdf.40.ZhangPing(张萍),“ChenDerong’sDemandsWhenVisitingBaowuCleanEnergy:StudyAgain,RecognizeAgain,andImproveAgain;AccelerateWorkonCarbonPeakingandCarbonNeutrality”(陈德荣到宝武清能调研时要求：再学习再认识再提高，加快推进碳达峰、碳中和工作),ChinaBaowuWeChatchannel(中国宝武),April30,2021,accessedApril30,2021,availableathttps://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/X0nfNjVpgETt2BWW5Q79vg.41.ChrisBuckley,“ChineseCityBacksDownonProposedNuclearFuelPlantAfterENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202165GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESProtests,”NewYorkTimes,August10,2016,accessedJune3,2021,https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/world/asia/china-nuclear-fuel-lianyungang.html.42.Forcementexports,seeappendix,sectionC,parti.Formoreonelectricityexports,seeEdmundDownie,“PoweringtheGlobe:LessonsfromSoutheastAsiaforChina’sGlobalEnergyInterconnection,”ColumbiaUniversitySIPACenteronGlobalEnergyPolicy,April23,2020,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/powering-globe-lessons-southeast-asia-china-s-global-energy-interconnection-initiative.43.Seeappendix,sectionC,parti.44.UBS,“ChinaA-Shares:FAQs,Facts,andFigures,”accessedJune3,2021,https://www.ubs.com/global/en/asset-management/insights/china/2019/stock-connect-china-a-shares-faqs-equity-investing.html.45.NoraSaumsikatandKatrinGanswindt,“TheForeignMoneyinChina’sBoomingCoalIndustry,”Chinadialogue,accessedJune3,2021,https://chinadialogue.net/en/energy/foreign-money-in-chinas-booming-coal-industry/.46.ForanexcellentsummaryofChineseclimatepolicyoverthepasttwodecades,seethediscussioninchapter4(“NationalTargetSetting”)ofKellySimsGallagherandXiaoweiXuan,TitansoftheClimate:ExplainingPolicyProcessintheUnitedStatesandChina(MITPress:2018).47.People’sRepublicofChina,“12thFive-YearPlanOutlinefortheEconomicandSocialDevelopmentofthePeople’sRepublicofChina”(I中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要),March2011,accessedMay11,2021,9,https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/fggz/fzzlgh/gjfzgh/201109/P020191029595702423333.pdf(hereafterthe“12thFive-YearPlanOutline”);People’sRepublicofChina,“13thFive-YearPlanOutlinefortheEconomicandSocialDevelopmentofthePeople’sRepublicofChina”(中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要),March2016,accessedMay11,2021,10,http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-03/17/content_5054992.htm(hereafterthe“13thFive-YearPlanOutline”).48.NationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafterreferredtoasthe“NDRC”),“EnhancedActionsonClimateChange:China’sIntendedNationallyDeterminedContribution,”June30,2015,accessedApril21,2021,4(Chineseversion),5(Englishversion),https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/China%20First/China%27s%20First%20NDC%20Submission.pdf.49.StateCouncil,“WhitePaperonChina’sEnergyDevelopmentintheNewEra,”December2020,accessedApril26,2021,http://www.scio.gov.cn/zfbps/32832/Document/1695117/1695117.htm.50.13thFive-YearPlanOutline,3.51.“MinistryofEcologyandEnvironment:OurCountry’sCarbonEmissionsIntensityHasDeclined18.2%from2015andHasAchievedthe13thFive-YearPlanBindingGoalinAdvance”(生态环境部：我国碳排放强度比2015年下降18.2%提前完成“十三五”约束性目标),Xinhua(新华),accessedApril26,2021,https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=168116303273147066­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES513&wfr=spider&for=pc.52.Theformertwoprioritieswerementionedinseveralinterviews,andWilliams(2014)notesthethirdpriorityaswell.Interviewees#10,#14,#21;LisaWilliams,“China’sClimateChangePolicies:ActorsandDrivers,”LowyInstituteforInternationalPolicy,July2014,accessedMay10,2021,14–20,https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/182715/chinas-climate-change-policies.pdf(hereafter“Williams,China’sClimateChangePolicies,2014”).53.Williams,China’sClimateChangePolicies,2014,14–20.Williamsincludesseveralotherclimate-specificmotivatorsofChineseeffortsaswell;shenotesimprovementstoairpollutionandcarbonintensitystrengthenChina’sinternationalimage,andhowclimatechangeitselfhadgainedincreasingattentionamongChineseleadershipasasourceofvulnerability.54.People’sRepublicofChina,“Outlineof9thFive-YearPlanfortheEconomicandSocialDevelopmentofthePeople’sRepublicofChinaand2010Long-TermGoals,”(中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展“九五”计划和2010年远景目标纲要),accessedApril26,2021,http://www.npc.gov.cn/wxzl/gongbao/2001-01/02/content_5003506.htm;People’sRepublicofChina,“10thFive-YearPlanOutlinefortheEconomicandSocialDevelopmentofthePeople’sRepublicofChina”(中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十个五年计划纲要),March15,2001,accessedApril26,2021,http://www.npc.gov.cn/wxzl/gongbao/2001-03/19/content_5134505.htm.55.People’sRepublicofChina,“11thFive-YearPlanOutlinefortheEconomicandSocialDevelopmentofthePeople’sRepublicofChina”(中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要),March14,2006,accessedApril26,2021,http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2006/content_268766.htm.56.12thFive-YearPlanOutline,9.57.12thFive-YearPlanOutline,52.58.Williams,China’sClimateChangePolicies,2014,14.59.NDRC,“NoticefromtheOfficeoftheNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionregardingthePublicationofGuidelinesonAssessmentMethodologiesforandReportingofGreenhouseGasEmissionsintheFirstSetof10Industries”(国家发展改革委办公厅关于印发首批10个行业企业温室气体排放核算方法与报告指南(试行)的通知),NDRCOfficeforClimateChange2013No.2526,October15,2013,accessedApril26,2021,https://zfxxgk.ndrc.gov.cn/web/iteminfo.jsp?id=1776;NDRC,“NoticefromtheNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionRegardingtheOrganizationandLaunchofGreenhouseGasEmissionsReportingWorkAmongKeyEnterprisesandPublicBodies”(国家发展和改革委员会关于组织开展重点企(事)业单位温室气体排放报告工作的通知),NDRCOfficeforClimateChange2014No.63,January13,2014,accessedApril26,2021,https://www.66law.cn/tiaoli/49588.aspx.ThelatterwasidentifiedviathedatabaseofChinesenationalclimatepoliciescompiledbytheClimatePolicyLabattheTuftsUniversityFletcherSchoolofLawandDiplomacy(KellySimsGallagher,HengruiLiu,QiQi,XiaoweiXuan,andFangZhang,“China:NationalClimatePolicies,”ClimatePolicyLab,FletcherSchool,TuftsUniversity,2021,accessedAprilENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202167GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES26,2021).SeetheInstituteofPublicandEnvironmentalAffairs’EnterpriseGreenhouseGasAssessmentPlatformforreportingmethodologiesreleasedsubsequentlyforotherindustriesathttp://ghg.ipe.org.cn/(accessedApril26,2021).60.Directive2003/87/ECoftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncilof13October2003establishingaschemeforgreenhousegasemissionallowancetradingwithinthecommunityandamendingCouncilDirective96/61/EC(textwithEEArelevance),accessedApril26,2021,https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/2003/87/oj.61.USEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,“LearnabouttheGreenhouseGasReportingProgram(GHGRP),”accessedApril26,2021,https://www.epa.gov/ghgreporting/learn-about-greenhouse-gas-reporting-program-ghgrp.62.13thFive-YearPlanOutline,92.63.12thFive-YearPlanOutline,52.64.NationalEnergyAdministration,“13thFive-YearDevelopmentPlanforEnergy”(能源发展“十三五”规划),December2016,accessedApril26,2021,14,http://www.nea.gov.cn/135989417_14846217874961n.pdf.65.EnergyPolicyInstituteattheUniversityofChicagoAirQualityLifeIndexProject,“China:NationalAirQualityActionPlan(2013),”accessedApril26,2021,https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/policy-impacts/china-national-air-quality-action-plan-2014/.66.LiKeqiang,“2014GovernmentWorkReport(FullText)”(政府工作报告（全文）),accessedApril26,2021,http://www.gov.cn/guowuyuan/2014-03/14/content_2638989.htm.67.XiJinping,“DecisivelyandComprehensivelyBuildingaModeratelyProsperousSociety,SeizingaGreatVictoryforSocialismwithChineseCharacteristicsintheNewEra––Reportatthe19thNationalCongressoftheChineseCommunistParty”(决胜全面建成小康社会夺取新时代中国特色社会主义伟大胜利——在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告),accessedApril26,2021,http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/19cpcnc/2017-10/27/c_1121867529.htm.68.EnergyPolicyInstituteattheUniversityofChicagoAirQualityLifeIndexProject,“China:NationalAirQualityActionPlan(2013),”accessedApril26,2021,https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/policy-impacts/china-national-air-quality-action-plan-2014/.69.LiYunqi,“BattleagainstPollution—MakingBlueSkiesStay,”ChinaGlobalTelevisionNetwork,May26,2020,accessedJuly25,2021,https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-26/Battle-against-pollution-making-blue-skies-stay-QO3pXB5WU0/index.html.70.NDRC,“AnswersfromtheNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissiononQuestionsregardingtheCompletionSituationofthe‘Double-Control’TargetsforTotalEnergyConsumptionTotalandEnergyIntensity”(发展改革委就能耗总量和强度“双控”目标完成情况有关问题答问),December18,2017,accessedApril26,2021,http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2017-12/18/content_5248190.htm.71.ZhaoXuan(赵煊),YuanRuiyang(原瑞阳),ChenXuewan(陈雪婉),BaiYujie(白宇洁),and68­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESLuoGuoping(罗国平),“SolvingtheRiddleofPowerRationing”(限电解题),Caixin(财新),December25,2020,accessedApril26,2021,https://weekly.caixin.com/2020-12-25/101643327.html?p0#page2.72.SeeDavidSandalow,AkosLosz,andShengYan,“ANaturalGasGiantAwakens:China’sQuestforBlueSkiesShapesGlobalMarkets,”ColumbiaUniversitySIPACenteronGlobalEnergyPolicy,June27,2018,accessedApril26,2021,https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/commentary/natural-gas-giant-awakens-china-s-quest-blue-skies-shapes-global-markets.73.IEA,EnergyEfficiencyMarketReport2016,October2016,accessedMay11,2021,47–48,https://eef.se/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/mediumtermenergyefficiency2016.pdf.74.JunLiu,DanTong,YixuanZheng,JingCheng,XinyingQin,QinrenShi,LiuYan,YuLei,andQiangZhang,“CarbonandAirPollutantEmissionsfromChina’sCementIndustry1990–2015:Trends,EvolutionofTechnologiesandDrivers,”AtmosphereChemistryandPhysics21,no.3(2021):1627–47.75.CBMF2020EmissionsReport.76.StateCouncil,“StateCouncilNoticeonthePublicationof13thFive-YearPlanEnergyConservationandEmissionsReductionWorkPlan”(国务院关于印发“十三五”节能减排综合工作方案的通知),December20,2016,accessedApril26,2021,http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2017-01/05/content_5156789.htm;Zhong,ChineseSteelIndustryataCrossroads,2018,10.77.IEA,“China’sEmissionsTradingScheme,”June2020,accessedApril26,2021,https://www.iea.org/reports/chinas-emissions-trading-scheme.78.ChinaElectricityCouncil,“DataReportTableofNationalElectricityIndustryStatisticsfor2020”(2020年全国电力工业统计快报数据一览表),January22,2021,accessedApril23,2021,https://www.cec.org.cn/detail/index.html?3-292820;ChinaElectricityCouncil,“DataReportTableofBasicElectricityStatisticsfor2017”(2017年电力统计基本数据一览表),October9,2018,accessedMay11,2021,https://cec.org.cn/detail/index.html?3-126875.79.Seeappendix,sectionA,parti.80.WorldBankGroup,“StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing2020,”May2020,accessedMay31,2021,20,https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/33809/9781464815867.pdf?sequence=4&isAllowed=y.ChinesepricedataisdrawnfromHuwSlater,DimitrideBoer,QianGuoqiang,andWangShu,“2020ChinaCarbonPricingSurvey,”ChinaCarbonForum,December2020,accessedMay10,2021,9,http://www.chinacarbon.info/sdm_downloads/2020-china-carbon-pricing-survey/.81.ForassessmentsofinducedinnovationfromtheETSpilots,seeJunmingZhu,YichunFan,XinghuaDengandLanXue,“Low-CarbonInnovationInducedbyEmissionsTradinginChina,”NatureCommunications10(2019):4088;JingboCui,JunjieZhang,andYangZheng,“CarbonPricingInducesInnovation:EvidencefromChina’sRegionalCarbonMarketPilots,”AEAPapersandProceedings,108(2018):453–57.FordiscussionsofemissionsENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202169GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESmitigationimpacts,seeYuningGao,MengLi,JinjunXue,andYuLiu,“EvaluationofEffectivenessofChina’sCarbonEmissionsTradingSchemeinCarbonMitigation,”EnergyEconomics90(August2020):104872;XingChenandJintaoHu,“CarbonTradingSchemeinthePeople’sRepublicofChina:EvaluatingthePerformanceofSevenPilotProjects,”AsianDevelopmentReview35,no.2(2018):131–52.82.DongChao(董超)andLinXichun(林汐淳),“TheCarbonMarketHasArrived:HowWillElectricityMarketsRespond?”(碳市场来了，电力交易如何接招？),SouthernEnergyObserverWeChatchannel(南方能源观察),January19,2021,accessedApril27,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5OTY4NjAwMQ==&mid=2650106017&idx=1&sn=279867a5067ab83e0660b8df3eb4af8a&chksm=bf3672bf8841fba9bc15194468df588f9f5018b69462c699a18d98d350b195daee9183a3638b#rd.SeealsoHongqiaoLiu,“In-DepthQ&A:WillChina’sEmissionsTradingSchemeHelpTackleClimateChange?,”CarbonBrief,June24,2021,accessedJuly12,2021,https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-will-chinas-emissions-trading-scheme-help-tackle-climate-change.83.Interviewees#6and#8.TheCO2emissionsreportsofthelargestlistedsubsidiaryofnumbereightnationalsteelproducerHunanValinmayreflectthisongoingcapacitybuildingprocess.Thefirmreported34.1mtofCO2emissionsin2019intheir2019annualreportbutreported46.5mtofemissionsfor2019intheir2020ESGreport,anincreaseofmorethanone-third.HunanValinSteelCo.Ltd.,2019AnnualReport(2019年年度报告),41;HunanValinSteelCo.Ltd.,2020Environmental,SocialandGovernanceReport(2020环境、社会责任和公司治理报告),62.84.DuSisi(杜偲偲)andChenXuewan(陈雪婉),“China’sUntestedCarbonMarket”(中国碳市场待考),Caixin财新,January25,2021,accessedApril23,2021,http://weekly.caixin.com/2021-01-23/101654673.html.85.“HouJunInterviewedbyXinhuaReporteronCarbonPeakingandCarbonNeutrality”(关于碳达峰、碳中和，侯军接受新华社记者采访),ShandongIronandSteelWeChatchannel(厚道陕钢),accessedMay20,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2ye2vBiwAposoa9fQJ3EMQ;ShandongIronandSteel,“High-QualityDevelopmentundertheNameof‘Carbon’”(高质量发展：以“碳”之名),accessedMay20,2021,http://www.sdsteel.cc/home/mtzx/mtzx_1/id/5248/cate_id/25.html.Thesubsidiary,ShandongIronandSteelCo.Ltd.,produced13.8mtofcrudesteelin2019;ShandongIronandSteelasawholeproduced27.8mt.ShandongIronandSteelCo.Ltd.(山东钢铁股份有限公司),2019AnnualReport,10;WorldSteelinFigures2020,8.86.Seeappendix,partD.TaiwanCementgroupstatesthatitis“aimingforcarbonneutralconcreteproducts”by2050butdoesnotspecifywhetheritseekstooffertheseexclusivelyortoachievecarbonneutralityacrossitsentiresupplychain.TheTransitionPathwaysInitiative’sDecember2020assessment,severalmonthsafterTCC’sannouncementofits2050aiminSeptember2020,didnotassessthecompany’stargetsasincludingachievingnet-zerocarbonintensityincementproductionby2050.SeeTransitionPathwaysInitiative,“TaiwanCement,”accessedMay11,2021,https://www.transitionpathwayinitiative.org/companies/taiwan-cement;TaiwanCementCorporation,“TaiwanCementAspirestoAchieveCarbonNeutralProductsin2050,”September7,2020,accessedMay11,2021,https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/taiwan-cement-70­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESaspires-to-achieve-carbon-neutral-products-in-2050-803756401.html.87.“BothglobalandnationalstudiesconsistentlycallforChina’semissionstopeakalmostimmediatelyinordertolimittemperaturechangeto1.5°C…Scenariosthatlimitwarmingto2°Cmaypeaktoward2030.”EnergyFoundationChina,“China’sNewGrowthPathway:Fromthe14thFive-YearPlantoCarbonNeutrality,”SynthesisReport2020onChina’sCarbonNeutrality,December2020,accessedMay28,2021,16–17,https://www.efchina.org/Reports-en/report-lceg-20201210-en.Fortherelativeeaseofpeakingemissionsbefore2030,seealsoBingHanandLaraDong,“China’sNew2030ClimateCommitments:BeyondPeakEmissions,”IHSMarkit,December15,2020,accessedMay28,2021,https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/chinas-updated-2030-climate-targets-beyond-carbon-peak.html;CarbonBrief,“Q&A:What’sDoesChina’s14thFive-YearPlanMeanforClimateChange?,”March12,2021,accessedMay28,2021,https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-chinas-14th-five-year-plan-mean-for-climate-change.88.SeeEnergyFoundationChina,“China’sNewGrowthPathway:Fromthe14thFive-YearPlantoCarbonNeutrality,”SynthesisReport2020onChina’sCarbonNeutrality,December2020,accessedMay28,2021,16,https://www.efchina.org/Reports-en/report-lceg-20201210-en.89.See,forinstance,PatrickJ.CalleryandEun-HeeKim,“MovingTargets:Aggressiveness,Attainment,andTemporalDynamicsinCorporateCarbonTargets,”workingpaper,November30,2020,accessedMay10,2021,15–16,https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3822553.90.FrederikDahlmann,LaylaBranicki,andStephenBrammer,“ManagingCarbonAspirations:TheInfluenceofCorporateClimateChangeTargetsonEnvironmentalPerformance,”JournalofBusinessEthics158(2019):1–24,table2.91.PatrickJ.CalleryandEun-HeeKim,“MovingTargets:Aggressiveness,Attainment,andTemporalDynamicsinCorporateCarbonTargets,”workingpaper,November30,2020,accessedMay10,2021,https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3822553.Freibergetal.(2021,29)discussevidenceintheliteratureaboutcompaniessettingtargetstheycannotordonotintendtoachieve.92.Freibergetal.(2021)findthatfirmswithtargetsrequiringlargerannualemissionsreductionsreportlargerinvestmentswithgreaterCO2-reducingimpactsaspartoftheiremissionsreductionactivitiesthanfirmswhosetargetsarelessdemanding.Dahlmannetal.(2019)andIoannouetal.(2016)findthattargetsinvolvinghigherpercentageemissionsreductionsoverthetargetperioddrivelargercarbonemissionsdeclines.ButCalleryandKim(2020),workingwith2011–19CDPdata,findthattargetswithshortertimehorizonsandsmallerpercentagereductionsaremorelikelytobemetandthatfirmsthatattaintheirtargets(baseduponactualemissionsdata)tendtoshowsmallerannualemissionsreductionsthanfirmsthatdonotattainthem.PatrickJ.CalleryandEun-HeeKim,“MovingTargets:Aggressiveness,Attainment,andTemporalDynamicsinCorporateCarbonTargets,”workingpaper,November30,2020,accessedMay10,2021,https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3822553;FrederikDahlmann,LaylaBranicki,andStephenBrammer,“ManagingCarbonAspirations:TheInfluenceofCorporateClimateChangeTargetsonEnvironmentalPerformance,”JournalofBusinessEthics158ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202171GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES(2019):1–24;DavidFreiberg,JodyGrewal,andGeorgeSerafeim,“Science-BasedCarbonEmissionsTargets,”workingpaper,March28,2021,accessedMay10,2021,https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3804530;IoannisIoannou,ShelleyXinLi,andGeorgeSerafeim,“TheEffectofTargetDifficultyonTargetCompletion:TheCaseofReducingCarbonEmissions,”AccountingReview91,no.5(2016):1467–92.93.Kironetal.(2017):“Aswithanystrategicinitiative,thesuccessofasustainabilitystrategydependsonimplementation.Companiesneedstrongleadershiptoimplementsustainabilitystrategies,whichoftendemandsignificantchangesinhowcompaniesoperate.Tomanageimplementation,leadersneedtoestablishKPIstiedtoimportanttangiblegoals,withclearassignmentofresponsibilities.Withoutmeasurablegoalsandaccountability,sustainabilityeffortswillfounder.”Sroufe(2017):“Participantshighlightedtheimportanceofsettingsustainabilityfocusedgoals.Ourrespondentsaremonitoringover20differentperformancemetricsandusuallyasmallernumberofKPIs(thetopfivearenotedinthetableabove).Thesemetricsfunctionasenablersforgaugingifactivitiesandprocessesareproducingprogresstowardsustainabilitygoals.Leadingorganizationsareinvolvedinassessmentbeyondfinancialperformanceandseeopportunitytocapturebenefitsthroughintegratedreporting.”DavidKiron,GregoryUnruh,NinaKruschwitz,MartinReeves,HolgerRubel,andAlexanderMeyerZumFelde,“CorporateSustainabilityataCrossroads:ProgresstowardsourCommonFutureinUncertainTimes,”MITSloanManagementReview,May23,2017;RobertSroufe,“IntegrationandOrganizationalChangetowardsSustainability,”JournalofCleanerProduction162(2017):315–29.94.“Severalintervieweeshighlightedhowtheadoptionofscience-basedstandardsinspiredcollaborationbetweendifferentfunctions(e.g.,operations,sustainability,financeetc.)andincreasedinformationexchange,andjointefforts,projectsandinvestmentsacrossteamstoreduceemissions.”DavidFreiberg,JodyGrewal,andGeorgeSerafeim,“Science-BasedCarbonEmissionsTargets,”workingpaper,March28,2021,accessedMay10,2021,29,https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3804530.95.WorldBenchmarkingAlliance,“Methodology,”ClimateandEnergyBenchmark,accessedMay10,2021,https://www.worldbenchmarkingalliance.org/publication/electric-utilities/methodology/.96.Science-BasedTargetsInitiative,CompaniesTakingActiondatabase,accessedMay19,2021,https://sciencebasedtargets.org/companies-taking-action#table.AsiaCementCorporationislistedashavinganSBTitargetofcuttingemissionsintensityby8percentfrom2019levelsby2025.However,thecompany’sannouncementofthistargetstatesthatitappliesspecificallytoTaiwan-basedplants.AsiaCementCorporation,“AsiaCementCarbonReductionTarget:AscendingtoWorldLevel”(亞泥減碳目標躋身世界級),accessedMay19,2021,https://www.acc.com.tw/news-center/latest-news/635-2021-03-30-06-54-51.97.Greenhousegasemissionsareusuallygroupedwithinoneofthree“scopes.”Scope1emissionsaredirectemissionsfromfacilitiesownedorcontrolledbyacompany.Scope2emissionsareindirectemissionsfromthegenerationofpurchasedenergy.Scope3emissionsareindirectemissionsnotincludedinscope2thatoccurinthevaluechainofthereportingcompany,includingbothupstreamanddownstreamemissions.See72­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESGreenhouseGasProtocol,“FAQ,”accessedJune4,2021,https://ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/standards_supporting/FAQ.pdf.98.Steelaccountingregulationsrequirereportingofemissionsfromfuelcombustion,industrialprocesses,purchasedheatandelectricity,andcarbonsequesteredinsoldproductslikecrudesteelandmethanol(固碳产品).Cementaccountingregulationsrequirefirmstoreportofemissionsfromfuelcombustion,industrialprocesses,andpurchasedheatandelectricityaswellastheproductionofnoncementproducts.NDRC,“GreenhouseGasEmissionsAccountingMethodsandReportingInstructionsforChineseSteel-ProducingFirms(Trial)”(中国钢铁生产企业温室气体排放核算方法与报告指南（试行）),attachment3to“NationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionOfficeCircularonthePublicationofGreenhouseGasAccountingMethodsandReportingInstructionsforEnterprisesintheFirstSetof10Sectors(Trial)“(国家发展改革委办公厅关于印发首批10个行业企业温室气体排放核算方法与报告指南（试行）的通知),October15,2013,accessedMay31,2021,3,5–13,https://zfxxgk.ndrc.gov.cn/web/iteminfo.jsp?id=1776;NDRC,“GreenhouseGasEmissionsAccountingMethodsandReportingInstructionsforChineseCement-ProducingFirms(Trial)”(中国水泥生产企业温室气体排放核算方法与报告指南（试行）),attachment3to“NationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionOfficeCircularonthePublicationofGreenhouseGasAccountingMethodsandReportingInstructionsforEnterprisesintheFirstSetof10Sectors(Trial)“(国家发展改革委办公厅关于印发首批10个行业企业温室气体排放核算方法与报告指南（试行）的通知),October15,2013,accessedMay31,2021,4–6,https://zfxxgk.ndrc.gov.cn/web/iteminfo.jsp?id=1776.99.worldsteel,“WorldSteelAssociationElectsNewOfficersandWelcomesNewMembers,”October12,2016,accessedMay11,2021,http://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2016/world-steel-association-elects-new-officers.html;Worldsteel,“WorldSteelAssociationElectsNewOfficersandWelcomesNewMembers,”October18,2017,accessedMay11,2021,http://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2017/world-steel-association-elects-new-officers.html;worldsteel,“WorldSteelAssociationElectsNewOfficersandWelcomesNewMembers,”October18,2018,accessedMay11,2021,http://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2018/world-steel-association-elects-new-officers.html;worldsteel,“WorldSteelAssociationElectsNewOfficersandWelcomesNewMembers,”October16,2019,accessedMay11,2021,http://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2019/world-steel-association-elects-new-officers.html;worldsteel,“Governance,”accessedApril29,2021,http://www.worldsteel.org/about-us/who-we-are/worldsteel-governance.html.100.worldsteel,“Governance,”accessedApril29,2021,http://www.worldsteel.org/about-us/who-we-are/worldsteel-governance.html.101.Seeappendix,partD.AfourthBig5firm,Datang,madeanambiguousstatementinJanuarythatwasinterpretedinsomequartersasentailinga2025carbonpeakingpledge.Thefirmsaidthatit“到2025年非化石能源装机超过50%，提前5年实现“碳达峰”;thisphrasecouldbetranslatedinEnglishintwoways:●“Havenonfossilinstalledcapacityexceeding50percentby2025andachievecarbonpeakingfiveyearsearly,”implyingthatthefirmwouldseekboth50percentnonfossilcapacityandcarbonpeakingby2025ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202173GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES●“Havenonfossilinstalledcapacityexceeding50percentby2025,achievingcarbonpeakingfiveyearsearly,”implyingdisingenuouslythatachieving50percentnonfossilcapacityby2025wascarbonpeaking(sinceitmeantapeakshareoffossilfuelsinthefirm’scapacitymix.Anumberofmediaoutletsandanalystsinterpretedthestatementusingtheformermeaning.See,e.g.,BernadetteLee,“Chinesestate-ownedenergycompaniesfast-trackpeakcarbonemissionsplans,”IHSMarkit,April21,2021,https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/chinese-stateowned-energy-companies-fasttrack-peak-carbon-emis.html.ButDatang’speakingandneutralityactionplanoutline,releasedinJune,onlyspokeof“guaranteeingcarbonpeakingbefore2030andstrivingtopeakearly.”Forthisreason,theauthorexcludesthemfromthelist.102.Seeappendix,sectionCandsectionD,partii.103.Seeappendix,sectionC,partii.104.Beyondcoalproductionandelectricitygenerationitself,CEIChasholdingsinassociatedsectorslikerailandporttransportationandcoal-basedchemicals.SeeChinaEnergyInvestmentCorporation,“BusinessSystem”(业务体系),accessedJuly2,2021,https://www.ceic.com/gjnyjtww/chnywtx/chnywtx.shtml.Coalplantscomprised99percentofthecompany’stotalthermalinstalledcapacityasof2020.Seeappendix,sectionB,partii.105.ChinaBuildingMaterialsFederation,“ActionDeclarationforAdvancingCarbonPeakingandCarbonNeutralityinBuildingMaterials”(《推进建筑材料行业碳达峰、碳中和行动倡议书》),accessedApril28,2021,http://www.cnggg.cn/news/shownews.php?lang=cn&id=229.106.EstherWhieldon,“PathtoNetZero:70%ofBiggestUSUtilitiesHaveDeepDecarbonizationTargets,”S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence,December9,2020,accessedApril28,2021,https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/path-to-net-zero-70-of-biggest-us-utilities-have-deep-decarbonization-targets-61622651;YannicRack,“AsNet-ZeroPressureGrowsinEurope,SomeUtilitiesEnjoy‘HeadStart,’”S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence,April13,2021,accessedApril28,2021,https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/as-net-zero-pressure-grows-in-europe-some-utilities-enjoy-head-start-63596140.OnthetimingofUSutilitypledges,seeStanleyPorter,JimThomson,MarleneMotyka,ChristineLacroix,KateHardin,andCarolynAmon,“UtilityDecarbonizationStrategies:Renew,Reshape,andRefueltoZero,”DeloitteInsights,September21,2020,accessedApril28,2021,https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/power-and-utilities/utility-decarbonization-strategies.html.107.JSWGroup,“JSWCarbonNeutralityby2050,”August18,2020,accessedApril29,2021,https://www.facebook.com/JSWGroupOfficial/videos/jsw-carbon-neutrality-by-2050/777671752978674/;J-POWER,J-POWERGroupIntegratedReport2020,accessedMay11,2021,29,https://www.jpower.co.jp/english/ir/pdf/2020.pdf;TataPower,“TataPowerClimateCommitment,”accessedMay11,2021,https://www.tatapower.com/pdf/sustainability/tp-climate-commitment.pdf.HongKong’sChinaPowerand74­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESLightalsohasalong-termdeepdecarbonizationtarget.SeeChinaPowerandLight,“Decarbonisation,”accessedApril29,2021,https://www.clpgroup.com/en/sustainability/strategic-priorities/decarbonisation.html.108.DataavailableatTransitionPathwaysInitiative,accessedApril28,2021,https://www.transitionpathwayinitiative.org/sectors/cement.109.WorldCementAssociation,“LargestCementProducers,”accessedApril21,2021,https://www.worldcementassociation.org/images/info-graphics/facts/worlds-largest-cenment-producers.jpg;LafargeHolcim,“BecomingaNetZeroCompany:OurPledgeinNumbers,”accessedApril28,2021,https://www.lafargeholcim.com/our-climate-pledge.110.PortlandCementAssociation,“PortlandCementAssociation,”accessedApril28,2021,https://www.cement.org/about;PortlandCementAssociation,“PortlandCementAssociationtoFurtherSustainabilityGoalsbyCreatingCarbonNeutralityRoadmapfortheCementandConcreteIndustry,”November17,2020,accessedApril28,2021,https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/portland-cement-association-to-further-sustainability-goals-by-creating-carbon-neutrality-roadmap-for-the-cement-and-concrete-industry-301174836.html;UltraTechCement,“SBTiValidatesUltraTech’sCO2EmissionsReductionTargets,”March12,2021,accessedApril28,2021,https://www.ultratechcement.com/about-us/media/press-releases/sbti-validates-ultratech-s-co2-emissions-reduction-targets.111.ThyssenKrupp,“ThyssenKruppSetsClearTargets:GroupAimstoBeClimateNeutralby2050—30PercentEmissionsReductionPlannedfor2030,”accessedApril28,2021,https://www.thyssenkrupp.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/thyssenkrupp-sets-clear-targets--group-aims-to-be-climate-neutral-by-2050------30-percent-emissions-reduction-planned-for-2030-12803.html;TataSteelEurope,“TataSteel’sEuropeanoperationstakemajorsteptowardsbecomingcarbonneutral,”October16,2018,accessedApril28,2021,https://www.tatasteeleurope.com/ts/corporate/news/tata-steel-european-operations-take-major-step-towards-becoming-carbon-neutral.112.POSCO,“POSCOPledgestoAchieveCarbonNeutralityby2050andLeadLowCarbonSociety,”December16,2020,accessedApril28,2021,https://newsroom.posco.com/en/posco-pledges-to-achieve-carbon-neutrality-by-2050-and-lead-low-carbon-society/;NipponSteel,“NipponSteelCorporationAnnouncesMedium-toLong-TermManagementPlan,”March5,2021,accessedApril28,2021,https://www.nipponsteel.com/en/ir/library/pdf/20210305_100.pdf.113.TargetdataavailablefromtheTransitionPathwaysInitiative,accessedApril28,2021,https://www.transitionpathwayinitiative.org/sectors/steel.JFESteel’sproductionvolumein2019(27.35mt)wasaroundthesameasShandongIronandSteel(27.51mt),China’sseventh-largestproducer.JSWSteel’s(16.26mt)wasaroundthesameasBengangGroup(16.18mt),China’sninth-largestproducer.Seeappendix,sectionC,partii.114.Interviewees#6,#8,#17,#18.Foranexampleofsuchanagreements,seeChinaEnergyInvestmentCorporation,“ChinaEnergyInvestmentCorporationLaunchesResearchonCarbonPeaking&CarbonNeutralityStrategies“(国家能源集团启动碳达峰碳中和战略研究),ChinaCoalAssociationWeChatENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202175GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESchannel(煤炭工业网),accessedJune25,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3NTcwMDg0Mg==&mid=2650318869&idx=6&sn=1cee86e6d3e4c36af6a0a843393b57a0&chksm=87608710b0170e0638c33531182d313d88df2353a3b7c0abedaab2429a92928bfc187104a74c#rd.115.Interviewee#3.116.ShanJie,LuYameng,andLiQiao,“State-OwnedCompaniesFaceChallengesinAchievingChina’sCarbonNeutralityGoal,”GlobalTimes,January13,2021,accessedApril29,2021,https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1212692.shtml.117.LucilleLiuandJingLi,“TheSecretOriginsofChina’s40-YearPlantoEndCarbonEmissions,”Bloomberg,November23,2020,accessedApril28,2021,https://phys.org/news/2020-11-secret-china-year-carbon-emissions.html.118.MichalMeidan,“UnpackingChina’s2060CarbonNeutralityPledge,”OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies,December2020,accessedApril21,2021,2,https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Unpacking-Chinas-carbon-neutrality-pledge.pdf.119.OntheCEWC’ssignificance,seeFrankTang,“China’sTopPolicyPanelSaysGovernmentWillContinue‘NecessarySupport’forEconomy,”SouthChinaMorningPost,December18,2020,accessedJune25,2021,https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3114571/chinas-top-policy-panel-says-government-will-continue.120.Xinhua,“TheCentralEconomicWorkConferenceIsHeldinBeijing;XiJinpingandLiKeqiangMakeImportantSpeeches”(中央经济工作会议在北京举行习近平李克强作重要讲话),December18,2020,accessedApril28,2021,http://www.12371.cn/2020/12/18/ARTI1608287844045164.shtml.121.Xinhua,“TheCentralEconomicWorkConferenceIsHeldinBeijing,”December12,2019,accessedApril28,2021,https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1652710915417261692&wfr=spider&for=pc.122.SASAC,“CentralSOELeaders’MeetingHeldinBeijing;ThoroughlyImplementCentralDecisionsandDeployments;ShowForththeMissionandResponsibilityofCentrally-OwnedSOEsinGuaranteeingtheComprehensiveConstructionofaModeratelyProsperousSociety”(中央企业负责人会议在京召开贯彻落实党中央决策部署在确保全面建成小康社会中展现国资央企使命担当),December25,2019,accessedApril29,2021,http://www.sasac.gov.cn/n2588020/n2877938/n2879597/n2879599/c13269476/content.html.123.SASAC,“CentralSOELeaders’MeetingHeldinBeijing;ResolutelyandUnswervinglyMakeState-OwnedCapitalandState-OwnedEnterprisesStrong,Excellent,andBig;TakeAdvantageoftheSituationtoLaunchaNewJourneyofStruggleinthe14thFive-YearPlan”(中央企业负责人会议在京召开坚定不移做强做优做大国有资本和国有企业乘势而上开启“十四五”奋斗新征程),December25,2020,accessedApril29,2021,www.sasac.gov.cn/n2588020/n2877938/n2879597/n2879599/c16316697/content.html.124.Seeappendix,partD.76­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES125.Seeappendix,partD.ForanexampleofaprioryearCEWCdebriefmeetingbyCEICleadership,see“WhatHasCEICDonetoThoroughlyImplementtheSpiritoftheCentralEconomicWorkConference?”(贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，国家能源集团做了啥？),CEICWeChatchannel(国家能源之声),accessedJune25,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EEl4jhqZzD-ZWTPkTsGI8A.126.Seeappendix,partD.127.ThedateofreleaseforbothwasMarch12,2021.People’sRepublicofChina,“Outlineof14thFive-YearPlanandLong-Term2035GoalsfortheEconomicandSocialDevelopmentofthePeople’sRepublicofChina”(中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要),March12,2021,accessedMay11,2021,http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-03/13/content_5592681.htm(hereafterreferredtoas“14thFive-YearPlanOutline”).Seealsoappendix,partD.128.The14FYPspokeof“vigorouslyraising[dalitisheng大力提升]thescaleofwindandPVpowergeneration”and“reasonablycontrollingtherhythmoftheconstructionanddevelopmentofcoal-firedpower.”The13thFive-YearPlan,bycontrast,calledfor“continuingtoadvance[jixutuijin继续推进]thescaleofwindandPVpowergeneration”and“vigorouslyadvancingtheclean,high-efficiencyutilizationofcoal”(13thFive-YearPlanOutline,57;14thFive-YearPlanOutline,10,29–30).TheauthorthanksSallyQiuforpointingouttheseshifts.129.MinistryofEcologyandEnvironment,“NoticeregardingthePublicationofImplementationPlanforTotalDeterminationandDistributionofNationalCarbonEmissionsPermitAllocationin2019–2020(ElectricityGeneration),ListofKeyEmittingUnitsIncludedinAdministrationofNationalCarbonEmissionsPermitAllocationin2019–20,andWorkforCarryingOutElectricityIndustryPermitVolumeAllocation”(关于印发《2019-2020年全国碳排放权交易配额总量设定与分配实施方案（发电行业）》《纳入2019-2020年全国碳排放权交易配额管理的重点排放单位名单》并做好发电行业配额预分配工作的通知),December31,2020,accessedMay3,2021,http://mee.gov.cn/xxgk2018/xxgk/xxgk03/202012/t20201230_815546.html;NDRC,“ConstructionPlanforaNationalCarbonEmissionsTradingMarket(ElectricityGeneration)”(全国碳排放权交易市场建设方案（发电行业）),December18,2017,accessedMay3,2021,https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/ghxwj/201712/W020190905495689305648.pdf;HongqiaoLiu,“In-DepthQ&A:WillChina’sEmissionsTradingSchemeHelpTackleClimateChange?,”CarbonBrief,June24,2021,accessedJuly12,2021,https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-will-chinas-emissions-trading-scheme-help-tackle-climate-change.130.TheETSallocatesallowancesforfreetofirmsbaseduponhistoricalgenerationdataandstandardcarbonintensitybenchmarks;asaresult,foragivengenerationtotal,efficientgeneratorswhosecarbonintensityfallsbelowthebenchmarkmayenjoyallowancestoselltotheirlessefficientcounterparts.Acarbonmarketconsultantinterviewednotedthatlargerfirmstendedtooperatelargerandmoreefficientcoalunits,whilesmallerandlessefficientunitsweremorecommonamong,forinstance,industrialuserswithcaptiveself-generationcapacity.Interviewee#6.AfinancialanalystatanAmericaninvestmentfirmnotedlikewisethatChina’slargestcementfirmstendtooperatemoreefficientcapacitythantheirsmallercompetitors,afurtheradvantagefortheircompetitiveENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202177GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESpositiononcetheETSisextendedtothesector.Interviewee#22.Notethatsomeoftheseindustrialusershavelargecoalholdingsthemselves,asinthealuminumproducerWeiqiao,China’s10th-largestcoalcapacityowner.Weiqiaoownsmorethan17GWofinefficientsubcriticalcoalcapacity,peranalysisbytheclimatethinktankEmber.MuyiYang,“China’sAluminumProductionSurgedby5%in2020,ProducingMoreEmissionsthanIndonesia,”Ember,February7,2021,accessedMay31,2021,https://ember-climate.org/commentary/2021/02/07/china-aluminium-2020-emissions/.FormoreonthedebateabouttheETS’slikelyimpact,seeHongqiaoLiu,“In-DepthQ&A:WillChina’sEmissionsTradingSchemeHelpTackleClimateChange?,”CarbonBrief,June24,2021,accessedJuly12,2021,https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-will-chinas-emissions-trading-scheme-help-tackle-climate-change.131.“Controllingtotalemissions”hadbeenidentifiedasa“supplement”tocarbonintensitytargetsbytheplanoutline:tanpaifangzongliangkongzhiweifu碳排放总量控制为辐.14thFive-YearPlanOutline,93.132.OnthepositivereceptiontothesepoliciesbyChineseofficials,seeIEA,EnergyEfficiencyMarketReport2016,October2016,accessedMay11,2021,44,https://eef.se/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/mediumtermenergyefficiency2016.pdf.Scholarsdebatetheseprograms’effectivenessatdrivingefficiencygains.Chenetal.(2021),forinstance,findsevidencethatlargefirmssubjecttotop-1,000mandatesduringthe11FYPmettargetsbycuttingenergyconsumptionratherthanimprovingefficiency,compensatingpartiallyforlostoutputbyshiftingoutputtolessproductivefirmsexemptfromthemandates.QiaoyiChen,ZhaoChen,ZhikuoLiu,JuanCarlosSuàrezSerrato,andDanielYiXu,“RegulatingConglomerates:EvidencefromanEnergyConservationPrograminChina,”workingpaper,May24,2021,accessedJune29,2021,https://www.jcsuarez.com/Files/Top_1000.pdf.Theauthorthanksananonymousreviewerfornotingthesepoliciesasapotentialexampleofaregulatoryapproachthatauthoritiesmighttakearoundcarbonemissions.133.“FullText:RemarksbyChinesePresidentXiJinpingatLeadersSummitonClimate”(习近平在“领导人气候峰会峰”上的讲话（全文）),Xinhua,April22,2021,accessedApril29,2021,http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-04/22/c_139899289.htm(Chinese),http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-04/22/c_139899289.htm(English).134.Seeappendix,sectionB,parti.135.DataisestimatedbaseduponMengjiaRen,LeeBranstetter,BrianKovak,DanielArmanios,andJiahaiYuan,“ChinaOverinvestedinCoalPower:Here’sWhy,”VoxEU,March16,2019,accessedJune29,2021,https://voxeu.org/article/china-overinvested-coal-power-here-s-why.136.XiJinping,“XiJinping’sSpeechattheClimateAmbitionSummit(FullText)”(习近平在气候雄心峰会上的讲话（全文）),accessedJuly12,2021,http://www.xinhuanet.com/2020-12/12/c_1126853600.htm.137.EnergyLawofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(DraftforComments)(中华人民共和国能源法（征求意见稿）),article115(“LegalInterpretationofTerms”)April3,2020,accessedApril29,2021,http://www.nea.gov.cn/138963212_15864798260741n.docx.78­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES138.Bothrenewableandnonfossilenergyalsoincludegeothermalandtidalenergy.139.SeeXiaoyingYou,“ChinaIssuesNew‘Single-Game’InstructionstoGuideitsClimateAction,”CarbonBrief,August4,2021,accessedAugust12,2021,https://www.carbonbrief.org/china-issues-new-single-game-instructions-to-guide-its-climate-action.140.Thecompanyonlyreportstargeting2GWofgasadditionsand5GWofadditionalshareholdingparticipationinnuclearfacilitiesfortheperiod,soitwouldenjoyroomtoaddmorethan30GWofcoalcapacitywithoutmissingits28.8percentrenewablegenerationtarget.141.China’senormous2020additionsofwind(72.4GW)andsolar(49.3GW)likelywouldhaveincludedsomeamountofnewwindandsolarcapacityfromthesefirmsthatmaymakethesecommitmentsmorestraightforwardforthesefirms.Butthoseminimumfiguresalsodonotreflectcoaladditionscompletedduring2020orprojectsunderconstruction—Huadian,inparticular,had5.4GWofcoalunderconstructionasofJanuary2021,pertheGCPTdatabase.Seeappendix,sectionB,partiiiandChinaElectricityCouncil,“DataReportTableofNationalElectricityIndustryStatisticsfor2020”(2020年全国电力工业统计快报数据一览表),January22,2021,accessedApril23,2021,https://www.cec.org.cn/detail/index.html?3-292820.142.Seeappendix,sectionB,partiiiandsectionD,partii.143.IvyYinandEricYep,“China’sBig5PowerProducersFaceUphillBattleinMeetingPeakEmissionsTargets,”S&PGlobalPlatts,June7,2021,accessedJune27,2021,https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/coal/060721-chinas-big-5-power-producers-face-uphill-battle-in-meeting-peak-emissions-targets.144.Seeappendix,sectionB,partii.145.Interviewees#4,#7(LucasLiutongZhang,director,WaterRockEnergyEconomics),#9.ChinaResources(42.6GW)andChinaPowerInternationalDevelopment(26.4GW),thelargestlistedsubsidiaryofSPIC,reportplant-levelcapacitydatafortheirholdingsthatsuggestslargerprojectsizesinwindthansolarwithintheirportfolios,asdescribedinthetablebelow.TypeAverageSize(MW)MedianSize(MW)ChinaResourcesWind93.155.8PV23.120.8SPICInternationalWind372.2106.3PV219.6100.0CalculationsbaseduponChinaResourcesPowerHoldingsCompanyLtd.,AnnualReport2019,5–7;ChinaPowerInternationalDevelopmentLimited,2019AnnualReport,9–10.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202179GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES146.CITICSecurities,“’CarbonNeutrality’:TheFullView”(“碳中和”全景图”)March3,2021,4;HanShulin(韩舒淋)andXuPeiyu(徐沛宇)“CarbonNeutrality:China’sAmbitionandWeakSpot”(碳中和，中国的雄心与软肋),Caijing(财经),accessedApril29,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NDU5NTM4MQ==&mid=2653393548&idx=2&sn=2b8aa1b46d5ac1bc2e090622cc83632f&chksm=bd5665d68a21ecc0ddbc1269b62964745b76d8cdaa853a2fb5d039dbb1a6f65ecf746d6a8374#rd.TheChinesePhotovoltaicIndustryAssociationprojected70–90GWofgrowthoverthe14FYPannuallyinaFebruary2021presentation.WangBohua,“ChinaPhotovoltaicIndustry2020Lookbackand2021Forecast”(中国光伏行业2020年回顾与2021年展望),ChinaPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociationWeChatchannel(中国光伏行业协会CPIA),February3,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5NjQwMjE4NA==&mid=2649640207&idx=1&sn=c052929a47ed924b846781dbd520038e&chksm=88aa4368bfddca7ed108282d9ef8dc8abd8725a6aae53e92a281b4f26a7fc3ee6fd34f5e15e1#rd.XieChangjun,formervicegeneralmanagerofCEICpredecessorChinaGuodian,statedinaDecember2020interviewthatthewindindustryshouldachieveatleast50GWofaverageannualgrowthinthecomingfiveyearstomeetChina’sgoalof12GWofinstalledwindandsolarby2030.ZhouXiaoyan(周小彦),“CoffeeTalkXieChangjun:OpportunitiesandChallengesfortheWindIndustry’sDevelopmentduringthe14thFive-YearPlan”(大咖说｜谢长军：“十四五”风电产业发展的机遇与挑战),BeijixingElectricPowerOnlineWeChatchannel(北极星电力网),December23,2020,accessedApril29,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/str5sXlG3QKgIGSuC1qrxw.147.GlobalEnergyInterconnectionDevelopmentandCooperationOrganization,“Researchona2030EnergyandElectricityDevelopmentPlanforChinaand2060Forecast”(中国2030年能源电力发展规划研究及2060年展望),March2021,accessedJune4,2021,21,https://www.geidco.org.cn/html/pdfpreview/web/viewer.html?file=source/%E3%80%8A%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD2030%E5%B9%B4%E8%83%BD%E6%BA%90%E7%94%B5%E5%8A%9B%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E8%A7%84%E5%88%92%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E5%8F%8A2060%E5%B9%B4%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%9B%E3%80%8B.pdf.148.14thFive-YearPlanOutline,30.Seeappendix,sectionB,partiiforlistoffirm-levelcapacityinformationsources.149.SeeAppendix,sectionB,parti.150.YukiYu,“China’sSolarMarket:RenewableInvestors’CriticalBattlefield,”EnergyIceberg,October14,2020,accessedMay11,2021,https://energyiceberg.com/china-solar-market-shift/.151.Interviewees#4,#7(LucasLiutongZhang,director,WaterRockEnergyEconomics),#9.152.See,forinstance,RockyMountainInstituteandEnergyTransitionsCommisson“ChinaZero-CarbonElectricityGrowthinthe2020s,”accessedJune5,2021,chap.4,https://rmi.org/insight/zero-carbon-electricity-growth-in-the-2020s/;YuanJiahai(袁家海),XiXingxuan(席星璇),MengZhixu(孟之绪),ZhangWeirong(张为荣),andZhangJian(张健),“ResearchonDiverseRoutestoRaisingPowerSystemFlexibilityinChina”(中国电力系统灵活性的多元提升路径研究1中国电力系统灵活性的多元提升路径研究),Greenpeace,80­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESOctober2020,accessedJuly12,2021,https://www.greenpeace.org.cn/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/%E3%80%902020%E5%B9%B411%E6%9C%88%E6%9B%B4%E6%96%B0%E7%89%88%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A%E4%B8%8B%E8%BD%BD%E3%80%91.pdf;BenCaldecott,GeraldineBouveret,GerardDericks,LucasKruitwagen,DanielJ.Tulloch,andXiaweiLiao,“ManagingthePoliticalEconomyFrictionsofClosingCoalinChina,”discussionpaperwiththeUniversityofOxfordSmithSchoolofEnterpriseandtheEnvironmentSustainableFinanceProgramme,February2017,accessedJuly12,2021,https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research/sustainable-finance/publications/Managing-the-political-economy-frictions-of-closing-coal-in-China-SFP-Working-Paper.pdf.153.MorganStanley,“CarbonNeutrality:Supply-SideReform2.0,”March23,2021,49;CITICSecurities,“’CarbonNeutrality’:TheFullView”(“碳中和”全景图)March3,2021,4.154.ZhangYanan(张亚楠),“ExclusiveLiShen:China’sCementIndustryCanPeakCarbonEmissionsEarly”(专访｜李琛：中国水泥行业有望提前实现碳达峰),ChinaBuildingMaterialsNews(中国建材报),January14,2021,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_10787817.155.Interviewees#5,#16.156.Xinhua,“ChompingDownontheHardBone,CreatingNewAdvantages—MIITMinisterXiaoYaqingDiscussestheDriversoftheIndustryandInformationTechnologySectorsin2021”(“啃下“硬骨头”锻造新优势——工信部部长肖亚庆谈2021年工业通信业发力点”),January4,2021,accessedApril30,2021,http://www.xinhuanet.com/2021-01/04/c_1126944382.htm.157.“Chinesesteelproductiondataoverthepastfewyearshasbeensubjecttoincreaseduncertaintyduetounderreporting,particularlyatillegalinductionfurnaces(‘IF’s)aftermostwereclosedduring2017.SinceIFproductionwasmostlyunrecordedintheofficialfigurespreviously,andthisproductionhasmovedtomillswhoseproductionisrecordedofficially,itledtoofficialestimatesofproductiongrowingmorestronglythanactualproductionoutputasestimatedbyArcelorMittal.AlthoughtheCompanybelievesthatthemostrecentproductiondataisbroadlyaccurate,itestimatesthatproductionwasunder-recordeduntilmid-2018,meaningthattheWorldSteelAssociation’sgrowthrateof8.3%in2019isoverstated(asaregrowthratesin2017and2018).[Authornote:officialChinesedatasharedinthisreportgivea7.1%growthrateinsteeloutputin2019.]ArcelorMittal’scrudesteelproductionestimatesareconsistentwithitsbeliefthatChinesesteeldemandgrewjustover3%”(ArcelorMittal,AnnualReport2019,9).158.See,forinstance,AmandaLee,“ChinaInvestsUS$163.2BillioninInfrastructuretoStaveOffEconomicSlowdownandEffectofTradeWar,”SouthChinaMorningPost,January29,2018,accessedMay11,2021,https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2183977/china-ramps-infrastructure-spend-stave-economic-slowdown-and;AmandaLee,“ChinaDoublesValueofInfrastructureProjectApprovalstoStaveOffEconomicSlowdownamidTradeWar,”SouthChinaMorningPost,October21,2019,accessedMay11,2021,https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3033564/china-doubles-value-infrastructure-project-approvals-stave.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202181GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES159.See,forinstance,ZengLingke(曾凌轲),LuoGuoping(罗国平),andZhouMeilin(周美霖),“OvercapacityReturnsinSteel”(“钢铁再过剩”),Caixin(财新),September23,2019,accessedApril30,2021,http://weekly.caixin.com/2019-09-21/101464638.html;CCA,“ActionPlanforReducingCapacityintheCementIndustry(2018–20)”(水泥行业去产能行动计划（2018～2020）),December11,2017,accessedApril30,2021,http://www.ccement.com/news/content/9284065789596.html?ti=1553484926401(hereafterreferredtoas“CCAActionPlanforReducingCapacity2018–2020”).160.CCAIndustryPerformanceandForecastReport2020–21;“SpotlightonChinaSteel:NewCrudeSteelCapacityExpansionSlowingin2020,”S&PGlobalPlatts,January30,2020,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/013029-spotlight-china-steel-new-capacity-slowing.161.ZengLingke(曾凌轲),LuoGuoping(罗国平),andZhouMeilin(周美霖),“OvercapacityReturnsinSteel”(钢铁再过剩),Caixin(财新),September23,2019,accessedApril30,2021,http://weekly.caixin.com/2019-09-21/101464638.html;“SpotlightonChinaSteel:NewCrudeSteelCapacityExpansionSlowingin2020,”S&PGlobalPlatts,January30,2020,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/013029-spotlight-china-steel-new-capacity-slowing.162.AformerexecutiveofaChinesecementfirmstatedinaninterviewthatseniorexecutivesatatop-10firmsuggestedthatthestimulushadsetbackaproductiondeclinethatwouldhaveotherwisebegunin2020.Interviewee#5.163.Foroutputlevels,seeappendix,sectionC,parti.FortheTangshansituation,seeSu-LinTan,“ChineseSteelProductionPowersAheaddespiteCurbsinIndustry’sHeartland,”SouthChinaMorningPost,April10,2021,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3129052/chinese-steel-production-powers-ahead-despite-curbs-industrys.164.LiangQian(粱倩),“SteelIndustryCarbonEmissionsPeakingandReductionActionPlanTakesShape”(钢铁行业碳达峰及降碳行动方案成型),EconomicInformationDaily(经济参考报),March30,2021,accessedApril28,2021,http://www.jjckb.cn/2021-03/30/c_139845634.htm.165.Seeappendix,sectionD.166.Seeappendix,sectionD.167.LuoGuoping(罗国平)andZhaoXuan(赵煊),“Baowu’sBigExpansion”(宝武大扩张),Caixin(财新),March1,2021,accessedApril29,2021,https://weekly.caixin.com/2021-02-27/101667969.html?p0#page2;OliviaZhangandHongmeiLi,“M&AsEmbeddedinChinaBaowu’sNext5-YearStrategy,”Mysteel,September21,2020,accessedJune5,2021,https://www.mysteel.net/article/5018572-0504/M-and-As-embedded-in-Chinas-Baowus-next-5-year-strategy.html;“ShandongIronandSteelCo.Ltd.,“ShandongIronandSteelCo.Ltd.DisclosureAnnouncementaboutShandongIronandSteelGroupStrategicRestructuring”(山东钢铁股份有限公司关于涉及山东钢铁集团有限公司战略重组的提示性公告),82­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESJuly15,2021,accessedAugust13,2021,http://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/new/2021-07-15/600022_20210715_1_BTNm7dnD.pdf.168.Seeappendix,sectionD.169.Seeappendix,sectionD.170.Thefirm’sinterimtargetof50percentemissionsreductionby2042impliesanaimtosqueeze50percentemissionscutsintoeightyears.Thiscanreasonablybeviewedasaconcern,allowingaworryingamountofslacktothefirmaroundnear-termreductions.Ontheotherhand,dependingupontheageofBaotou’sassets,aconcentratedwaveofblastfurnaceretirementsinthe2040scouldfitwellwithexpectedfacilitylifetimes.“BaotouFormallyAnnouncesitsCarbonPeakingandCarbonNeutralityPlanGoals!StrivingtoPeakin2023,StrivingforNeutralityin2050”(包钢碳达峰、碳中和规划目标正式发布！力争2023年碳达峰、力争2050年碳中和),BaotouIronandSteelWeChatchannel(包钢集团),May15,2021,accessedMay20,2021,http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NDc5NDk4MQ==&mid=2649751021&idx=1&sn=fc813f5fb9bf1372c50a68c38fd0abb0&chksm=be99016789ee88713ae24ada6e6c5b5536bb913cb8e84caa974d84334e401f136ed0f44a53ab#rd.171.LuoGuoping(罗国平)andZhaoXuan(赵煊),“Baowu’sBigExpansion”(宝武大扩张),Caixin财新,March1,2021,accessedApril29,2021,https://weekly.caixin.com/2021-02-27/101667969.html?p0#page2.172.Interviewee#21.173.CalculatedusingdatafromIHSGlobalLtd.presentedintheUSDepartmentofCommerceEnforcementandComplianceDivision,GlobalSteelTradeMonitor,accessedMarch26,2021,https://www.trade.gov/data-visualization/global-steel-trade-monitor.174.DingBo(丁波)andCaiXinhua(蔡新华),“ChinaBaowuStrivestoAchieveCarbonNeutrality10YearsinAdvance”(中国宝武力争提前10年实现碳中和),ChinaEnvironmentNews(中国环境报),April8,2021,http://epaper.cenews.com.cn/html/1/2021-04/08/07B/2021040807B_pdf.pdf.175.CISA,“NoticeonthePlannedEstablishmentofanExpertCommitteeforAdvancingLow-CarbonWorkandaSearchforMemberInstitutionsandExpertParticipants”(关于拟成立“中国钢铁工业协会低碳工作推进委员会”并征集委员单位和专家组成员的通知),CISAWeChatchannel(中国钢铁工业协会),January20,2021,accessedApril30,2021,http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwNDMzMDQyMg==&mid=2650917218&idx=1&sn=7044cea51ddf6625e9d31285b9547683&chksm=80d8efbbb7af66ad6fb4fe47216f8a9e2bf4922d5426de50fe986e57711693e68620979aa974#rd.“HBISChairmanYuYongDiscussestheEuropeanUnionCarbonBorderTax:IfThereAreNotLargeChangesinOurCarbonEmissionsintheShortTerm,WeWillFaceNewChallengesaroundIssuesofCarbonTaxesandBarriers”(河钢董事长于勇谈欧盟碳边境税：如果我们的碳减排量在短期内没有大的变化，我们在碳税壁垒问题上，将面临新的挑战),ChinaChamberofCommerceforMetallurgicalEnterprisesWeChatchannel(全联冶金商会),accessedMay20,2021,https://ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202183GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESmp.weixin.qq.com/s/_hIeDkAG1KN1q7MmmK_L7A;“High-LevelBusinessmenDialogueHuWangmingTalksFreelyonChinaBaowu’sCarbonPeakingandCarbonNeutralityExperience(VideoAttached)”(企业家高端对话胡望明畅谈中国宝武践行碳达峰碳中和（附视频）),BaowuGroupWeChatchannel(中国宝武),accessedMay21,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5MDEzNzA5Ng==&mid=2654866845&idx=2&sn=d652f2aa8bf2f67118a7c86d0656251f&chksm=bd83c3fa8af44aecee59e5ec296810fedb1dad5d187c7cef5936666bd1eae340fc877b6784e8#rd.176.“AchievingCarbonPeakingin2022:ThisIsHowHBISWillDoIt”(2022年实现碳达峰河钢集团这样“干”),WorldMetalsReportWeChatchannel(世界金属导报),March14,2021,accessedApril29,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5ODEzMjgwNA==&mid=2656702107&idx=2&sn=3c51e422b51f0cadcaf9abde2a802736&chksm=8b3898b0bc4f11a6cb6bc5dd965cdf302f974be42fc56fa184d1a6f8c8adaa65187267a6c86b#rd.Sa(米飒),“HBISShijiazhuangNewSteelDistrictEntersOperation;‘DreamFactory’forSpecialtySteelTakesOff”(河钢石钢新区投产特钢“梦工厂”起航),HebeiIronandSteelGroup,October30,2020,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.hbisco.com/site/group/newsinfo/info/2020/15826.html;ShanghaiMetalsMarket,“Report:HBISGroup’sNewSteelMillinShijiazhuangBeginsConstruction,”July14,2019,accessedApril30,2021,https://news.metal.com/newscontent/100949618/report-hbis-group%E2%80%99s-new-steel-mill-in-shijiazhuang-begins-construction/.177.Interviewee#20;MorganStanley,“IronOre’sRisingScrapThreat,”November25,2020.Theauthorthanksinterviewee#20forpointinghimtothisreport.178.InanarticlepromotedbytheMinistryofEcologyandEnvironment,ChinesescholarHeKebinreportedthatsteelfirms’2017emissionscomprised20percent,10percent,and7percentofnationalparticulatematter,NOx,andSO2emissions,respectively.HeKebin(贺克斌),“Explainer1:TheInfluenceofSteelFirms’ConcentratedEmissionsonUrbanAirPollutionisClear;ThereIsStillLotsofSpaceforEmissionsReductionintheIndustry“(解读①丨钢铁企业集中排放对城市空气质量影响显著行业减排仍有较大空间（贺克斌）),accessedApril30,2021,https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1632723126679018193&wfr=spider&for=pc.179.“China’sTopSteelCityTangshanSummons48FirmsoverAirPollution,”Reuters,July17,2019,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-pollution-tangshan/chinas-top-steel-city-tangshan-summons-48-firms-over-air-pollution-idUSKCN1TI0SV;Interviewee#19(LiHongmei,HeadofEnglishEditorial,MysteelGlobal,April2021).180.ChinaIronandSteelAssociation(hereafterreferredtoas“CISA”),“CommitteeMemberHeWenboTalksHotTopicsintheSteelIndustryincludingReducingCarbonEmissionsandControllingProduction”(何文波委员谈碳减排、控产量等当前钢铁行业热点问题),CISAWeChatchannel(中国钢铁工业协会),March3,2021,accessedMarch12,2021,http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwNDMzMDQyMg==&mid=2650918057&idx=1&sn=15816fba86f6e5af4144137a7ac51ef6&chksm=80d8ea70b7af6366fc745a6ff0e13848e692f347b4e081cebd43970a980284ff86d04f04ffae#rd.84­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES181.MIIT,“ImplementationMethodsforSteelIndustryCapacityReplacement”(钢铁行业产能置换实施办法),April17,2021,article7,accessedJune25,2021,http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2021-05/07/content_5605092.htm.182.MIIT,“GuidingOpinionsontheHigh-QualityDevelopmentoftheIronandSteelIndustry”(关于推动钢铁工业高质量发展的指导意见),December31,2020,accessedApril30,2021,4,https://www.miit.gov.cn/api-gateway/jpaas-web-server/front/document/file-download?fileUrl=/cms_files/filemanager/1226211233/attach/202012/5ab69a6a953943ab98e5cb415aa42887.pdf&fileName=%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E6%8E%A8%E5%8A%A8%E9%92%A2%E9%93%81%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E9%AB%98%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%87%E5%AF%BC%E6%84%8F%E8%A7%81%EF%BC%88%E5%BE%81%E6%B1%82%E6%84%8F%E8%A7%81%E7%A8%BF%EF%BC%89.pdf(hereafterreferredtoas“MIITGuidingOpinionsonSteelDevelopment”).183.CaitlinSwalecandChristineShearer,“PedaltotheMetal:NoTimetoDelayinDecarbonizingtheGlobalSteelSector,”GlobalEnergyMonitor,June2021,accessedJune28,2021,26,https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Pedal-to-the-Metal.pdf.184.ZhengXin,“IronOreImportsHitRecordin2020,”ChinaDaily,February23,2021,accessedApril30,2021,http://epaper.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202102/23/WS60344914a31099a234354201.html.185.JingZhangandSylviaCao,“China’sResumptionofScrapImportsSeenUnlikelytoHelpCosts,EAFDevelopment,”S&PGlobalPlatts,January13,2021,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/011321-chinas-resumption-of-scrap-imports-seen-unlikely-to-help-costs-eaf-development.186.See,e.g.,HeWenbo(何文波),“GuidingLow-Carbon,Green,High-QualityDevelopment;AcceleratingAdvancementontheGoalofAchievingCarbonPeaking”(引领低碳绿色高质量发展加快推进实现碳达峰目标),ChinaChamberofCommerceforMetallurgicalEnterprisesWeChatchannel(全联冶金商会),April29,2021,accessedMay20,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2_OQiXnN-CHUNxxgT0XCFQ;ChinaIronandSteelAssociation(hereafterreferredtoas“CISA”),“CommitteeMemberHeWenboTalksHotTopicsintheSteelIndustryincludingReducingCarbonEmissionsandControllingProduction”(何文波委员谈碳减排、控产量等当前钢铁行业热点问题),CISAWeChatchannel(中国钢铁工业协会),March3,2021,accessedMarch12,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s__biz=MzAwNDMzMDQyMg==&mid=2650918057&idx=1&sn=15816fba86f6e5af4144137a7ac51ef6&chksm=80d8ea70b7af6366fc745a6ff0e13848e692f347b4e081cebd43970a980284ff86d04f04ffae#rd.187.MIIT,“GuidingOpinionsontheHigh-QualityDevelopmentoftheIronandSteelIndustry”(关于推动钢铁工业高质量发展的指导意见),December31,2020,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.miit.gov.cn/api-gateway/jpaas-web-server/front/document/file-download?fileUrl=/cms_files/ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202185GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESfilemanager/1226211233/attach/202012/5ab69a6a953943ab98e5cb415aa42887.pdf&fileName=%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E6%8E%A8%E5%8A%A8%E9%92%A2%E9%93%81%E5%B7%A5%E4%B8%9A%E9%AB%98%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E7%9A%84%E6%8C%87%E5%AF%BC%E6%84%8F%E8%A7%81%EF%BC%88%E5%BE%81%E6%B1%82%E6%84%8F%E8%A7%81%E7%A8%BF%EF%BC%89.pdf.(hereafterreferredtoas“MIITGuidingOpinionsonSteelDevelopment”).MIITGuidingOpinionsonSteelDevelopment,3–4;JingZhangandSylviaCao,“China’sResumptionofScrapImportsSeenUnlikelytoHelpCosts,EAFDevelopment,”S&PGlobalPlatts,January13,2021,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/011321-chinas-resumption-of-scrap-imports-seen-unlikely-to-help-costs-eaf-development.188.See,e.g.,FrankTang,“ExplainerWhatIsChina’sDualCirculationEconomicStrategyandWhyIsItImportant?,”SouthChinaMorningPost,November19,2020,accessedJune4,2021,https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3110184/what-chinas-dual-circulation-economic-strategy-and-why-it.189.FrankZhong,“Blog:HowHydrogenIsGainingMomentumintheChineseSteelIndustry,”worldsteel,September16,2020,accessedApril30,2021,http://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/blog/2020/hydrogen-technology-momentum-Chinese-steel-industry.html.CISAchairmanHeWenbo,inanApril2021speech,citedBaowu,HBIS,Shougang,Jianlong,JiuquanIronandSteel,andRizhaoIronandSteelasfirms“activelyexploringtheestablishmentofhydrogenmetallurgydemonstrationprojects.”HeWenbo,“GuidingLow-CarbonGreenHigh-QualityDevelopment,AdvancingtheAchievementoftheCarbonPeakingGoals”(引领低碳绿色高质量发展加快推进实现碳达峰目标),CISAWeChatchannel(中国钢铁工业协会),April29,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/so8uAKRN2Qef1iG5lTs6Xw.190.KevinJianjunTu,ProspectsofaHydrogenEconomywithChineseCharacteristics,Institutfrançaisdesrelationsinternationales,October2020,accessedMay10,2021,49,https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/tu_china_hydrogen_economy_2020_1.pdf.191.Hebeiwasoneofmorethan10provincestomentionhydrogeninits14thFive-YearPlan,andatallyoffirmsinvolvedinhydrogenbyreportersat21stCenturyEconomicReportfoundHebeiashavingtheseventh-mostsuchfirmsamong34provincesnationwide.“APictureofHydrogeninChinaDuringthe14FYP:10+ProvinceswithMajorDeployments;Guangdong,Jiangsu,ShandongwiththeMostFirms”(十四五中国氢能版图：超10个省份重点布局，广东、江苏、山东企业最多),21stCenturyEconomicReport(21世纪经济报道),accessedApril30,2021,https://m.21jingji.com/article/20210406/herald/512da7191cb43c36ae7e3fcd4438bd5b_zaker.html.ShellrecentlyformedaJVwithacompanyownedbythecityofZhangjiakouinHebeitodeploya20MWelectrolyzerforgreenhydrogenproduction.Zhangjiakou,whichwillcohostthe2022OlympicGameswithBeijing,wasselectedbycentralauthoritiesasChina’sfirstNationalRenewableEnergyDevelopmentZonein2015,andits2019–35HydrogenConstructionStrategyenvisionsdeveloping50,000tpaofhydrogenproductioncapacityby2035.Xinhua,“ZhangjiakouAcceleratestheConstructionofRenewableEnergyDemonstrationZone”(张家口加快建86­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES设可再生能源示范区),July26,2019,accessedApril30,2021,http://www.xinhuanet.com/info/2019-07/26/c_138259488.htm;“ZhangjiakouinHebei:BecomeanInternationally-FamousHydrogenCapitalin2035withProductionValueof170bnRMB”(河北张家口：2035年成国际知名氢能之都，产值1700亿),ThePaper(澎湃新闻),accessedApril30,2021,https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1636133141334843451&wfr=spider&for=pc;Shell(China)LimitedandZhangjiakouCityTransportConstructionInvestmentHoldingGroup,“ZhangjiakouCityTransportandShellNewEnergyCo.,LimitedFormedtoDevelopHydrogenValueChain,”November13,2020,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.shell.com.cn/en_cn/media/media-releases/2020-media-releases/zhangjiakou-city-transport-and-shell-new-energy-co-limited-formed-to-develop-hydrogen-value-chain.html.192.HebeiDevelopmentandReformCommission,“NoticeregardingthePublicationofHebeiProvince2020HydrogenIndustryKeyProjectList(FirstBatch)”(关于印发《河北省2020年氢能产业重点项目清单（第一批）》的通知),HebeiDRCEnergyOffice[2020]No.387,accessedMay10,2021,http://hbdrc.hebei.gov.cn/common/ueditor/jsp/upload/20200331/26291585636899167.pdf;SebastianLewis,“NChinaHydrogenPushLedbyHydrogenasBy-Product,Renewables,”S&PGlobalPlatts,June11,2020,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/061120-n-china-hydrogen-push-led-by-hydrogen-as-by-product-renewables.193.“AchievingCarbonPeakingin2022:ThisIsHowHBISWillDoIt”(2022年实现碳达峰河钢集团这样“干”),WorldMetalsReportWeChatchannel(世界金属导报),March14,2021,accessedApril29,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5ODEzMjgwNA==&mid=2656702107&idx=2&sn=3c51e422b51f0cadcaf9abde2a802736&chksm=8b3898b0bc4f11a6cb6bc5dd965cdf302f974be42fc56fa184d1a6f8c8adaa65187267a6c86b#rd.Theterm“hydrogenmetallurgy”issomewhatvague.ItcouldindicatetheuseofhydrogenasareductionagentinDRIfacilitiesorinblastfurnaces,withvaryingcarbonfootprintsdependingupontheshareofgreenhydrogenused—DRIfacilitiescanaccept100percentsharesofhydrogenforreduction,whereasblastfurnacesaremorelimited.FriedmannandFanreportarounda20percentpotentialreductionincarbonfootprintfromtheuseofhydrogeninblastfurnaces,asopposedtoaround60percentforDRIfacilities.FriedmannandFan2021,840.194.TenovaSpA,“FirstHydrogenBasedENERGIRONDRIPlantforTenovainChina,”November23,2020,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.tenova.com/news/press-media/press-releases/detail/first-hydrogen-based-energiron-dri-plant-for-tenova-in-china/.195.KevinJianjunTu,ProspectsofaHydrogenEconomywithChineseCharacteristics,Institutfrançaisdesrelationsinternationales,October2020,accessedMay10,2021,36,https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/tu_china_hydrogen_economy_2020_1.pdf;SinopecTargetAnnouncement.196.SinopecTargetAnnouncement.197.“TangshanCityCarriesOutActionsandReformsinanUprightFashion,StrictlyImplementsHeavyPollutionWeatherEmergencyResponseSteps,ComprehensivelyImprovesAirQuality”(唐山市立行立改，严格落实重污染天ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202187GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES气应急响应措施，全面改善空气质量),TangshanCityWeChatchannel(唐山发布),March13,2021,accessedJuly2,2021,http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MzA1ODE3MQ==&mid=2650100926&idx=1&sn=93e4aa4ea71ce74b04a94bdfb46e58e1&chksm=871526aab062afbce0d3afc7206fe4d8b033ce432ec4fc15c366b1a1ae089314881fb87858da#rd.198.See,forinstance,“ADifficultDecadeforaBigHigh-CarbonProvince:HowBigaPriceWillInnerMongoliaPaytoPeakCarbonEmissions?”(高碳大省的艰难十年：内蒙古将为碳达峰付出多大的代价？),ChinaNewsWeekly(中国新闻周刊),June1,2021,accessedJuly2,2021,http://www.ce.cn/cysc/stwm/sy/yw/202106/01/t20210601_36609541.shtml.199.SinopecTargetAnnouncement.Beforeitsnet-zeroannouncementinlateMarch2020,thefirmwassayingthatduringthe14FYPperiod,itwishedto“acceleratetheadvancementofthetransitionofhydrogensourcesfromgreyhydrogentoblueandgreenhydrogen.”Grayhydrogengenerallyreferstohydrogenproducedfromfossilfuels(viasteam-methanereforming,forinstance)withoutcarboncapturetechnology;bluehydrogenishydrogenproducedfromfossilfuelsatfacilitieswithcarboncapturetechnologyinstalled;andgreenhydrogenishydrogenproducedviaelectrolysisusingzero-carbonelectricity.TheauthorhasreviewedSinopec’sWeChatchannelandhasnotbeenabletoidentifyanystatementssincethecompany’sneutralitypledgewithmoredetailedtimelines.See“ADialoguewithCEOMaYongsheng:Sinopec’sFutureDeploymentsAreCloselyLinkedtoYou!”(对话总经理马永生，中国石化未来布局与你息息相关！),SinopecWeChatchannel(中国石化),March9,2021,accessedJune27,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FARdiMvX9BWi8o8G8hIRyA.200.LaszloVarroandAnFengquan,“China’sNet-ZeroAmbitions:TheNextFive-YearPlanWillBeCriticalforanAcceleratedEnergyTransition,”IEA,October29,2020,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.iea.org/commentaries/china-s-net-zero-ambitions-the-next-five-year-plan-will-be-critical-for-an-accelerated-energy-transition.201.See,forinstance,MatthewWalsh,“What’sHoldingBackCarbonCaptureInChina?,”CaixinGlobal,December21,2020,accessedJuly12,2021,https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/whats-holding-back-carbon-capture-in-china.202.A2021IEAonCCUSnotesthatannualinvestmentinCCUShas“consistentlyaccountedforlessthan0.5%ofglobalinvestmentincleanenergyandefficiencytechnologies”andthatcurrentglobalCCUScapacity(around40mt)isjust13percentofthetargetlaidoutbytheagencyinits2009roadmapforthesector(around300mt).IEA,“SpecialReportonCarbonCaptureUtilisationandStorage:CCUSinCleanEnergyTransitions,”EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2020,September2020,accessedJuly12,2021,28,https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage.203.WangZhenbang(王振邦),“FirstTimeWorldwide!BayiHydrogen-RichCarbonRecyclingBlastFurnaceAchievesMajorTechnologicalBreakthrough”(全球首次！八钢富氢碳循环高炉实现重大技术突破),BaowuWeChatchannel(中国宝武),accessedJuly2,2021,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4UClInDHqdym1WUMNEYgIA.204.Formoreonalternativecementcompositions,seeInternationalEnergyAgencyandthe88­­CENTERONGLOBALENERGYPOLICYCOLUMBIASIPAGETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGESCementSustainabilityInitiative,“TechnologyRoadmap:Low-CarbonTransitionintheCementIndustry,”2018,accessedMay10,2021,41–46,https://www.wbcsd.org/contentwbc/download/4586/61682/1;andJohannaLehneandFelixPreston,“MakingConcreteChange:InnovationinLow-CarbonCementandConcrete,”ChathamHouse,June2018,accessedJuly13,2021,42,46–47,https://www.chathamhouse.org/2018/06/making-concrete-change-innovation-low-carbon-cement-and-concrete.InformationonChinesemarketprospectsisbasedupondiscussionswithinterviewees#5,#6,and#15(KarenScrivener,fullprofessor,ConstructionMaterialsLaboratory,ÉcolepolytechniquefédéraledeLausanne).205.CCA,“13thFive-YearDevelopmentPlanfortheCementIndustry,”June5,2017,accessedApril30,2021,http://www.dcement.com/article/201706/156678.html.206.Interviewee#14.207.Interviewee#16;“CementinChinasteeringtowardssustainability,”FLSmidth,accessedApril30,2021,https://www.flsmidth.com:443/en-gb/discover/cement-2020/cement-in-china-steering-towards-sustainability;DuSisiandChenXuewan,“China’sUntestedCarbonMarket”(中国碳市场待考),Caixin(财新),January25,2021,accessedApril23,2021,http://weekly.caixin.com/2021-01-23/101654673.html;JeroendeBeer,JanCihlar,andIgorHensing,“StatusandCo-processingofWasteinEUCementPlants,”Ecofys,May2017,accessedApril30,2021,4,http://www.cembureau.eu/media/ldfdotk0/12950-ecofys-co-processing-waste-cement-kilns-case-studies-2017-05.pdf.208.CBMF2020EmissionsReport,5–6.209.HanQianweiofHuaxinCement,atop-10cementfirmbyclinkercapacity,toldCaixinreportersthatthefirmcouldachieve50percentAFsharesand,indoingso,lowertheircarbonfootprintfrom0.86tC/tonto0.74tC/ton,a14percentdecline.Theauthorthanksinterviewee#5whonotedtheassumptionofzero-carbonbiomassinthisestimate.DuSisi(杜偲偲)andChenXuewan(陈雪婉),“China’sUntestedCarbonMarket”(中国碳市场待考),Caixin(财新),January25,2021,accessedApril23,2021,http://weekly.caixin.com/2021-01-23/101654673.html.Theestimateofaroughly15percentdeclineincarbonintensityalsoaccordswithaback-of-the-envelopecalculationfromthestandardshareofheatingemissionsincementproductionof30–40percent,asreportedbytheIEA;50percentAFshareswouldcutthatshareinhalf.210.Xinhua,“ChairmanXiJinpingHoldsthe9thMeetingoftheCentralEconomicandFinancialCommittee”(习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第九次会议),March15,2021,accessedMay3,2021,http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-03/15/content_5593154.htm.211.Theauthorwasunabletoaccessitswebsite,http://www.ged.com.cn/,asidentifiedbyGuangdongEnergyGroup,“GuangdongElectricPowerDevelopmentCo.Ltd.”(广东电力发展股份有限公司),accessedMay11,2021,https://www.geg.com.cn/site/gdyd/kgqy/info/2013/4191.html,butfoundnoESGreportsfromstockdisclosurerecordsorkeywordsearchesthroughBaidu.212.Theauthorwasunabletoaccessitswebsite,www.chinavalin.com,butfoundnoESGreportsfromkeywordsearchesthroughBaidu.ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDUAUGUST202189GETTINGTO30-60:HOWCHINA’SBIGGESTCOALPOWER,CEMENT,ANDSTEELCORPORATIONSARERESPONDINGTONATIONALDECARBONIZATIONPLEDGES