SummaryforPolicymakersLandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestryASpecialReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangePublishedfortheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange©2000,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeISBN:92-9169-114-3ContentsForeword...................................................................................vPreface.....................................................................................vii1.Introduction............................................................................3PartI2.GlobalCarbonCycleOverview.............................................................3PartII3.IssuesAssociatedwithDefinitions...........................................................53.1Forests,Afforestation,Reforestration,andDeforestation.......................................53.2AdditionalActivities...................................................................84.CarbonAccounting......................................................................8PartIII5.MethodsforMeasuringandMonitoring......................................................116.EstimatesofAverageAnnualCarbonStockChanges/AccountedforARDActivitiesandSomeAdditionalActivities.............................................................126.1Afforestation,Reforestration,andDeforestation..............................................126.2AdditionalActivities...................................................................137.Project-basedActivities...................................................................138.ReportingGuidelinesfortheRelevantArticlesoftheKyotoProtocol...............................169.PotentialforSustainableDevelopment.......................................................17AppendicesI.ConversionUnits........................................................................18II.RelevantPortionsofKyotoProtocolArticlesDiscussedinthisSpecialReport........................19III.Glossary...............................................................................21ListofIPCCOutputs.........................................................................23ForewordTheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)wasjointlyestablishedbytheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)andtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)in1988to:(i)assessavailableinformationonthesci-ence,theimpacts,andtheeconomicsof,andtheoptionsformitigatingand/oradaptingto,climatechange;and(ii)provide,onrequest,scientific/technical/socioeconomicadvicetotheConferenceoftheParties(COP)totheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC).Sincethen,theIPCChasproducedaseriesofAssessmentReports,SpecialReports,TechnicalPapers,methodologies,andotherproductsthathavebecomestandardworksofreference,wide-lyusedbypolicymakers,scientists,andotherexperts.TheSpecialReportonLandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestrywaspreparedinresponsetoarequestfromtheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)SubsidiaryBodyforScientificandTechnologicalAdvice(SBSTA).AtitsEighthSessioninBonnon2–12June1998,SBSTArequestedareportexaminingthescientificandtechnicalstateofunderstandingforcarbonsequestrationstrate-giesrelatedtolanduse,land-usechange,andforestryactivitiesandrelevantArticlesoftheKyotoProtocol.Thescope,struc-ture,andoutlineoftheSpecialReportwasapprovedbytheIPCCinplenarymeetingsduringitsFourteenthSessioninVienna,Austria,from1–3October1998.ThisSpecialReportdiscussestheglobalcarboncycleandhowdifferentlanduseandforestryactivitiescurrentlyaffectstand-ingcarbonstocksandemissionsofgreenhousegases.Italsolooksforwardandexaminesfuturecarbonuptakeandemis-sionsthatmayresultfromemployingvaryingdefinitionalsce-nariosandcarbonaccountingstrategies,linkedtotheKyotoProtocol,withintheforestryandland-usesectors.AsisusualintheIPCC,successinproducingthisdocumenthasdependedontheenthusiasmandcooperationofvolunteersdispersedworldwidewhogivefreelyoftheirprofessionalandpersonaltime.WewouldliketoexpressourgratitudetoalltheCoordinatingLeadAuthors,LeadAuthors,ContributingAuthors,ReviewEditors,andExpertReviewers.Theseindi-vidualshaveexpendedconsiderableefforttoproducethisreportandweareextremelygratefulfortheircommitmenttotheIPCCprocess.Wewouldalsoliketoexpressoursincerethanksto:•RobertT.Watson—theChairmanoftheIPCCandChairofthisSpecialReport•IanNoble,BertBolin,andN.H.Ravindranath—theCoordinatorsofthisSpecialReport•NealLeary,OsvaldoCanziani,andMartinManning(WorkingGroupII);DavidGriggs,FortunatJoos,andJohnStone(WorkingGroupI);andBertMetz,EduardoCalvo,andPeterKuikman(WorkingGroupIII)—theScienceSteeringCommitteeforthisSpecialReport•DavidJ.VerardoandthestaffoftheWorkingGroupIITechnicalSupportUnit•N.Sundararaman—theSecretaryoftheIPCC,andtheSecretariatstaff.G.O.P.ObasiSecretary-GeneralWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationK.TöpferExecutiveDirectorUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeandDirector-GeneralUnitedNationsOfficeinNairobiPrefaceTheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)SpecialReportonLandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry(SR-LULUCF)hasbeenpreparedinresponsetoarequestfromtheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)SubsidiaryBodyforScientificandTechnologicalAdvice(SBSTA).AtitseighthsessioninBonn,Germany,2–12June1998,theSBSTArequestedareportexaminingthescien-tificandtechnicalimplicationsofcarbonsequestrationstrategiesrelatedtolanduse,land-usechange,andforestryactivities.Thescope,structure,andoutlineofthisSpecialReportwasapprovedbytheIPCCinplenarymeetingsduringitsFourteenthSession.ThisSpecialReportexaminesseveralkeyquestionsrelatingtotheexchangeofcarbonbetweentheatmosphereandtheterres-trialpoolofabovegroundbiomass,below-groundbiomass,andsoils.Vegetationexchangescarbondioxidebetweentheatmos-phereandtheterrestrialbiospherethroughphotosynthesisandplantandsoilrespiration.Thisnaturalexchangehasbeenoccur-ringforhundredsofmillionsofyears.Humansarechangingthenaturalrateofexchangeofcarbonbetweentheatmosphereandtheterrestrialbiospherethroughlanduse,land-usechange,andforestryactivities.Consequently,itisimportanttoexaminehowcarbonflowsbetweendifferentpoolsandhowcarbonstockschangeinresponsetoafforestation,reforestation,anddefor-estation(ARD)andotherland-useactivities.TheaimoftheSR-LULUCFistoassistthePartiestotheKyotoProtocolbyprovidingrelevantscientificandtechnicalinformationtodescribehowtheglobalcarboncycleoperatesandwhatthebroad-scaleopportunitiesandimplicationsofARDandadditionalhuman-inducedactivitiesare,nowandinthefuture.ThisSpecialReportalsoidentifiesquestionsthatPartiestotheProtocolmaywishtoconsiderregardingdefini-tionsandaccountingrules.ThisSpecialReportshouldbehelpfulintheimplementationofrelevantArticlesintheKyotoProtocolbyprovidinginformationaboutmeasurementandmonitoringtechniquesforassessingchangesincarbonstocksinAnnexIandnon-AnnexIcountries,theapplicabilityoftheRevised1996IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventoriesfornationalandpro-ject-levelaccounting,theimplicationsofArticles3.3and3.4,andprojectactivitiesrelatingtosustainabledevelopment.ThisSpecialReportalsoestimatespotentialcarbonyieldsfromARDandadditionalactivitiesbyevaluatingchangesincarbonstocksfordifferentecosystems,currentlandareaconvertedperyear(Mhayr–1),andtotallandavailablefortwodifferenttimeperiods:nearterm(betweennowandtheendofthefirstcom-mitmentperiod)andlongerterm(1990–2040).Projectexperi-enceisalsoprovidedforseveralprojects,primarilyintropicalcountries.ImplementationoftheKyotoProtocolrequiresmutuallyacceptabledefinitionsforawiderangeoftermstoensurethateffectivesequestrationstrategiesareplannedandimplemented.Forinstance,ifkeytermssuchasforests,afforestation,refor-estation,anddeforestationarenotclearlydefinedorifcarbonaccountingprinciplesarenotclearlyestablished,itbecomesdifficulttocomprehendtheimplicationsofdifferentland-useactivities.Hence,thechallengeistoderiveasetofdefinitionsthataresimpleandconsistentwiththeaimsoftheUNFCCCandtheKyotoProtocol.Toachievethisgoal,definitionsshouldbeapplicabletoallPartiesandbeaddressedusingdatathatcanbereadilyaccessed.ThisprocesswillenablePartiestoesti-matecarbonstockchangesthatwouldneedtobeincludedinthecalculationofassignedamounts.Inexaminingissuesrelatingtolanduse,land-usechange,andforestry,severalcriticalscientificandtechnicalquestionspre-sentthemselves.Whataretheimplicationsofusingdifferentdefinitionsorsetsofdefinitions?Dothedefinitionsneedtobeflexibleenoughtoaccommodateourpresentunderstandingofcarbondynamicswhileallowingforfutureinnovationsandadvances?Howdowedistinguishamongdirecthuman-inducedactivities,indirecthuman-inducedactivities,andnat-uralenvironmentalvariabilitythataffectscarbonuptakeandrelease?Howdowedifferentiatebetweenpre-andpost-1990directhumanactivities?Howdowemeasurechangesincarbonstocksandflowsinatransparentandverifiablemannerovertime?Howpermanentarecarbonstocks?Towhatextentdowetradesimplicityforaccuracyinaccounting?Insummary,theSR-LULUCFiswrittenwithavarietyofques-tionsinmindthatexaminethescientificandtechnicalaspectsofcarbonsequestrationinagriculturalandforestrysectorsaswellastheimplicationsoflanduse,land-usechange,andforestryactivitiesonenvironmentalandsocioeconomicissues,conservation,andsustainableresourcemanagementanddevel-opmentissues.RobertT.WatsonandDavidJ.VerardoSUMMARYFORPOLICYMAKERSLANDUSE,LAND-USECHANGE,ANDFORESTRYASpecialReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeThissummary,approvedindetailatIPCCPlenaryXVI(Montreal,Canada,1–8May2000),representstheformallyagreedstatementoftheIPCCconcerningcurrentunderstandingoflanduse,land-usechange,andforestryactivitiesandtheirrelationshiptotheKyotoProtocol.Basedonadraftpreparedby:RobertWatson(USA),IanNoble(Australia),BertBolin(Sweden),N.H.Ravindranath(India),DavidVerardo(USA),KenAndrasko(USA),MichaelApps(Canada),SandraBrown(USA),GrahamFarquhar(Australia),DonaldGoldberg(USA),StevenHamburg(USA),RichardHoughton(USA),PaulJarvis(UK),TimoKarjalainen(Finland),HaroonKheshgi(USA),ThelmaKrug(Brazil),WernerKurz(Canada),DanielLashof(USA),BoLim(UNDP),WillyMakundi(Tanzania),MartinManning(NewZealand),GreggMarland(USA),OmarMasera(Mexico),DanielMurdiyarso(Indonesia),BrianMurray(USA),ReidarPersson(Indonesia),NeilSampson(USA),JayantSathaye(USA),RobertScholes(SouthAfrica),BernhardSchlamadinger(Austria),WimSombroek(TheNetherlands),StephenPrisley(USA),JohnStone(Canada),RamanSukumar(India),andRiccardoValentini(Italy)1.Introduction1.UnderArticle3.1oftheKyotoProtocol,theAnnexIPartieshaveagreedtolimitandreducetheiremissionsofgreen-housegasesbetween2008and2012.2.TheKyotoProtocolmakesprovisionforAnnexIPartiestotakeintoaccountafforestation,reforestation,anddefor-estation(ARD)andotheragreedlanduse,land-usechange,andforestry(LULUCF)activitiesinmeetingtheircommit-mentsunderArticle3.3.ToimplementtheKyotoProtocol,issuesrelatedtoLULUCFwillhavetobeconsidered.Relevantissuesmayincludeforexample:•Definitions,includingland-usechange,forests,forestryactivities,includingafforestation,reforestation,anddeforestation,carbonstocks,human-induced,anddirecthuman-induced;•Methodologicalissues,suchas:➢RulesforaccountingforcarbonstockchangesandforemissionsandremovalsofgreenhousegasesfromLULUCFactivities,including:–Whichcarbonpoolstoinclude;–Howtoimplement“since1990,”“directhuman-induced,”and“human-induced”;–Howtoaddresstherisksandeffectsofeventssuchasfires,pestoutbreaks,andextrememeteorologicalevents;baselines;permanence;interannualanddecadalclimatevariability;andleakage;–Accuracy,precision,anduncertaintiesintrackingcarbonstocksandgreenhousegases;➢Approaches,suchasgeo-referencingandstatisti-calsampling,associatedwithidentifyinglandswithactivitiesdefinedunderArticle3.3,acceptedunderArticle3.4,orassociatedwithproject-basedactivitiesundertheKyotoProtocol,andmeasuringandestimatingchangesincarbonstocksandgreen-housegases;➢Verificationprocedures;•DeterminationofhowandwhichadditionalactivitiespursuanttoArticle3.4areincluded;•Howtolinkthefirstandsubsequentcommitmentperiods;•Determinationofhowandwhichproject-basedactivi-tiesareincluded;•Whatimprovements,ifany,areneededtotheRevised1996IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventoriesandtheGoodPracticeGuidanceandUncertaintyManagementinNationalGreenhouseGasInventories;•Whataretheimplicationsofandwhat,ifany,nationaland/orinternationalsustainabledevelopmentcriteriacouldbeassociatedwithArticles3.3and3.4andpro-ject-basedactivities.4.Therefore,toassistthePartiestotheProtocol,thisSummaryforPolicymakers(SPM)providesrelevantscientificandtechnicalinformationinthreeparts:•PartIdescribeshowtheglobalcarboncycleoperatesandprovidesacontextforthesectionsonARDandadditionalhuman-inducedactivities;•PartIIaddressesimportantissuesregardingdefinitionsandaccountingrules.Itidentifiesarangeofoptionsanddiscussesimplicationsandinterrelationshipsamongoptions;•PartIIIprovidesinformationthatgovernmentsmightfindusefulinconsideringtheseissues:➢Anassessmentoftheusefulnessofmodelsandoftheusefulnessandcostsofground-basedandremotely-sensedmeasurementsandofmonitoringtechniquesforassessingchangesincarbonstocks;➢Thenear-term(firstcommitmentperiod)poten-tialforcarbonstockchanges/accountingofactiv-itiesinAnnexIcountriesandglobally;➢Issuesofspecialsignificancetoproject-basedactivities;➢AnevaluationoftheapplicabilityoftheRevised1996IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventoriesfornationalandproject-levelaccountinginlightoftheKyotoProtocol;➢ImplicationsofArticles3.3and3.4andprojectactivitiesonsustainabledevelopment(i.e.,socioe-conomicandenvironmentalconsiderations).PartI2.GlobalCarbonCycleOverview5.Thedynamicsofterrestrialecosystemsdependoninterac-tionsbetweenanumberofbiogeochemicalcycles,particu-larlythecarboncycle,nutrientcycles,andthehydrologicalcycle,allofwhichmaybemodifiedbyhumanactions.Terrestrialecologicalsystems,inwhichcarbonisretainedinlivebiomass,decomposingorganicmatter,andsoil,playanimportantroleintheglobalcarboncycle.Carbonisexchangednaturallybetweenthesesystemsandtheatmos-pherethroughphotosynthesis,respiration,decomposition,andcombustion.Humanactivitieschangecarbonstocksinthesepoolsandexchangesbetweenthemandtheatmospherethroughlanduse,land-usechange,andforestry,amongotheractivities.Substantialamountsofcarbonhavebeenreleasedfromforestclearingathighandmiddlelatitudesoverthelastseveralcenturies,andinthetropicsduringthelatterpartofthe20thcentury.[1.1.1.2]16.Thereiscarbonuptakeintobothvegetationandsoilsinter-restrialecosystems.Currentcarbonstocksaremuchlarger1.NumbersinbracketsattheendofthisandsubsequentparagraphsindicaterelevantsectionsoftheSpecialReportcontainingdetails.insoilsthaninvegetation,particularlyinnon-forestedecosystemsinmiddleandhighlatitudes(seeTable1).[1.3.1]7.From1850to1998,approximately270(+30)GtChasbeenemittedascarbondioxide(CO2)intotheatmospherefromfossilfuelburningandcementproduction.About136(+55)GtChasbeenemittedasaresultofland-usechange,predominantlyfromforestecosystems.Thishasledtoanincreaseintheatmosphericcontentofcarbondioxideof176(+10)GtC.Atmosphericconcentrationsincreasedfromabout285to366ppm(i.e.,by~28%),andabout43%ofthetotalemissionsoverthistimehavebeenretainedintheatmosphere.Theremainder,about230(+60)GtC,isestimatedtohavebeentakenupinapproximatelyequalamountsintheoceansandtheterrestrialecosystems.Thus,onbalance,theterrestrialecosystemsappeartohavebeenacomparativelysmallnetsourceofcarbondioxideduringthisperiod.[1.2.1]8.Theaverageannualglobalcarbonbudgetsfor1980–1989and1989–1998areshowninTable2.Thistableshowsthattheratesandtrendsofcarbonuptakeinterrestrialecosystemsarequiteuncertain.However,duringthesetwodecades,terres-trialecosystemsmayhaveservedasasmallnetsinkforcarbondioxide.Thisterrestrialsinkseemstohaveoccurredinspiteofnetemissionsintotheatmospherefromland-usechange,primarilyinthetropics,havingbeen1.7±0.8GtCyr–1and1.6±0.8GtCyr–1duringthesetwodecades,respectively.Thenetterrestrialcarbonuptake,thatapproximatelybalancestheemissionsfromland-usechangeinthetropics,resultsfromland-usepracticesandnaturalregrowthinmiddleandhighlatitudes,theindirecteffectsofhumanactivities(e.g.,atmosphericCO2fertilizationandnutrientdeposition),andchangingclimate(bothnaturalandanthropogenic).Itispresentlynotpossibletodeterminetherelativeimportanceofthesedifferentprocesses,whichalsovaryfromregiontoregion.[1.2.1andFigure1-1]9.Ecosystemmodelsindicatethattheadditionalterrestrialuptakeofatmosphericcarbondioxidearisingfromtheindi-recteffectsofhumanactivities(e.g.,CO2fertilizationandnutrientdeposition)onaglobalscaleislikelytobemain-tainedforanumberofdecadesinforestecosystems,butmaygraduallydiminishandforestecosystemscouldevenbecomeasource.Onereasonforthisisthatthecapacityofecosys-temsforadditionalcarbonuptakemaybelimitedbynutri-entsandotherbiophysicalfactors.Asecondreasonisthattherateofphotosynthesisinsometypesofplantsmaynolongerincreaseascarbondioxideconcentrationcontinuestorise,whereasheterotrophicrespirationisexpectedtorisewithincreasingtemperatures.Athirdreasonisthatecosystemdegradationmayresultfromclimatechange.Theseconclu-sionsconsidertheeffectoffutureCO2andclimatechangeonthepresentsinkonlyanddonottakeintoaccountfuturedeforestationoractionstoenhancetheterrestrialsinksforwhichnocomparableanalyseshavebeenmade.Becauseofcurrentuncertaintiesinourunderstandingwithrespecttoacclimationofthephysiologicalprocessesandclimaticcon-straintsandfeedbacksamongsttheprocesses,projectionsbeyondafewdecadesarehighlyuncertain.[1.3.3]10.Newlyplantedorregeneratingforests,intheabsenceofmajordisturbances,willcontinuetouptakecarbonfor20to50yearsormoreafterestablishment,dependingonspeciesandsiteconditions,thoughquantitativeprojectionsbeyondafewdecadesareuncertain.[1.3.2.2]11.Emissionsofmethane(CH4)andnitrousoxide(N2O)areinfluencedbylanduse,land-usechange,andforestryactivities(e.g.,restorationofwetlands,biomassburning,andfertilizationofforests).Hence,toassessthegreenhousegasimplicationsofLULUCFactivities,changesinCH4andN2Oemissionsandremovals—themagnitudeofwhichishighlyuncertain—wouldhavetobeconsideredexplicitly.TherearecurrentlynoreliableglobalestimatesoftheseemissionsandremovalsforLULUCFactivities.[1.2.2,1.2.3,3.3.2]LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry4AreaGlobalCarbonStocks(GtC)Biome(109ha)VegetationSoilTotalTropicalforests1.76212216428Temperateforests1.0459100159Borealforests1.3788471559Tropicalsavannas2.2566264330Temperategrasslands1.259295304Desertsandsemideserts4.558191199Tundra0.956121127Wetlands0.3515225240Croplands1.603128131Total15.1246620112477Note:Thereisconsiderableuncertaintyinthenumbersgiven,becauseofambiguityofdefinitionsofbiomes,butthetablestillprovidesanoverviewofthemagnitudeofcarbonstocksinterrestrialsystems.Table1:Globalcarbonstocksinvegetationandsoilcarbonpoolsdowntoadepthof1m.PartII3.IssuesAssociatedwithDefinitions12.ForpurposesofthisSpecialReport,inagivenlandareaandtimeperiod,afullcarbonaccountingsystemwouldconsistofacompleteaccountingforchangesincarbonstocksacrossallcarbonpools.Applyingfullcarbonaccountingtoalllandineachcountrywould,inprinciple,yieldthenetcarbonexchangebetweenterrestrialecosystemsandtheatmos-phere.However,theKyotoProtocolspecifies,amongotherthings,thatattentionfocusontothoselandareassubjectto“directhuman-induced”activitiessince1990(Article3.3)orhuman-inducedactivities(Article3.4).[2.3.2.5]3.1Forests,Afforestation,Reforestation,andDeforestation13.Therearemanypossibledefinitionsofa“forest”andapproachestothemeaningoftheterms“afforestation,”“reforestation,”and“deforestation”(ARD).ThechoiceofdefinitionswilldeterminehowmuchandwhichlandinAnnexIcountriesareincludedundertheprovisionsofArticle3.3,landsassociatedwithactivitiesincludedunderArticle3.3(hereafter“landsunderArticle3.3”).TheamountoflandincludedwillhaveimplicationsforthechangesincarbonstocksaccountedforunderArticle3.3.[2.2.2,2.2.3,3.2,3.5.2,3.5.3]14.SevendefinitionalscenariosweredevelopedthatcombinedefinitionsofforestandARDandreflectarangeofapproachesthatcanbetaken.Thescenariosarenotintend-edtobeexhaustive.Theycanbesplitintotworepresentativegroups,whicharediscussedintheSPM:(1)scenariosinwhichonlyaforest/non-forestconversion(i.e.,aland-usechangetriggersaccountingunderArticle3.3)(e.g.,IPCCDefinitionalScenario),and(2)scenariosinwhichland-coverchangeoractivitiestriggeraccountingunderArticle3.3(e.g.,FAODefinitionalScenario).[2.2.2,2.2.3,3.2,3.5.2,3.5.3,Table3-4]15.Countrieshavedefinedforestsandotherwoodedlands,foranumberofnationalandinternationalpurposes,intermsof(i)legal,administrative,orculturalrequirements;(ii)landuse;(iii)canopycover;or(iv)carbondensity(essentiallybio-massdensity).SuchdefinitionswerenotdesignedwiththeKyotoProtocolinmindand,thus,theymaynotnecessari-lysufficefortheparticularneedsofArticles3.3and3.4.[2.2.2,3.2]16.Forestdefinitionsbasedonlegal,administrative,orcultur-alconsiderationshavelimitationsforcarbonaccountingastheymaybearlittlerelationshiptotheamountofcarbonatasite.[2.2.2,3.2]17.Mostdefinitionsofforestarebasedinpartonasinglethresholdofminimumcanopycover.However,suchdefin-itionsmayallowchangesincarbonstockstoremainunac-countedunderArticle3.3.Forexample,ifahighthresholdforcanopycover(e.g.,70%canopycover)isusedinthedef-initionofaforest,thenmanyareasofsparseforestandwoodlandcouldbeclearedorcouldincreaseincoverwith-outthelossesorgainsincarbonbeingcountedunderArticle3.3.Ifalowthresholdisset(e.g.,10%canopycover),thendenseforestcouldbeheavilydegradedandsignificantamountsofcarbonreleased,withouttheactionsbeingdes-ignatedasdeforestation.Similarly,aforest,forexamplewith15%canopycover,couldbeconsiderablyenhancedwithouttheactionsqualifyingasreforestationorafforesta-tionunderArticle3.3.Approachestoaddresspartlytheseproblemsmayinclude,interalia,usingnational,regional,orbiome-specificthresholds(e.g.,alowcanopycoverforsavannasandahighcanopycoverformoistforests).[2.2.2,3.2,3.3.2]18.Definitionsofforestsbasedoncarbon-densitythresholdshavesimilarissueswithrespecttothresholdsascanopycover-baseddefinitions.[2.2.2]19.Thereareanumberofapproachestodefinitionsofafforesta-tion,reforestation,anddeforestation.Oneapproachinvolves5LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry1980to19891989to19981)Emissionsfromfossilfuelcombustionandcementproduction5.5±0.56.3±0.6a2)Storageintheatmosphere3.3±0.23.3±0.23)Oceanuptake2.0±0.82.3±0.84)Netterrestrialuptake=(1)–[(2)+(3)]0.2±1.00.7±1.05)Emissionsfromland-usechange1.7±0.81.6±0.8b6)Residualterrestrialuptake=(4)+(5)1.9±1.32.3±1.3aNotethatthereisaone-yearoverlap(1989)betweenthetwodecadaltimeperiods.bThisnumberistheaverageannualemissionsfor1989–1995,forwhichdataareavailable.Table2:AverageannualbudgetofCO2for1980to1989andfor1989to1998,expressedinGtCyr-1(errorlimitscorrespondtoanestimated90%confidenceinterval).theconceptofland-usechange.Deforestationcanbedefinedastheconversionofforestlandtonon-forestland.Reforestationandafforestationcanbedefinedasthecon-versionofnon-forestedlandstoforestswiththeonlydif-ferencebeingthelengthoftimeduringwhichthelandwaswithoutforest.[2.2.3,3.2]20.Analternativedefinitionofdeforestationmightbebasedonadecreaseinthecanopycoverorcarbondensitybyagivenamountorcrossingoneofasequenceofthresholds.Similarly,afforestationandreforestationcouldbedefinedintermsofanincreaseincanopycoverorcarbondensity.Noneofthesedefinitionsinvolvestheconceptofaland-usechange.[2.2.2,3.2]21.Definitionsofaforestbasedstrictlyonactualcanopycoverwithoutconsiderationofpotentialcanopycovercouldleadtoharvestingandshiftingagriculturebeingreferredtoasdeforestationandtoregenerationbeingreferredtoasrefor-estation,thuscreatingadditionalareasoflandsunderArticle3.3.Ifthedefinitionofaforestwasbasedonthepotentialcanopycoveratmaturityunderplannedland-usepractices,harvesting/regenerationactivitiesmaynotfallunderArticle3.3.[2.2.2,2.2.3,3.2]22.Somecommonlyuseddefinitionsofreforestationincludetheactivityofregeneratingtreesimmediatelyafterdisturbanceorharvestingwherenoland-usechangeoccurs.If,forexam-ple,thedefinitionofdeforestationortheaccountingsystemdonotincludedisturbanceandharvesting,thenemissionsfromaharvestedstandwillnotbeaccountedfor.Inthisparticularexample,uptakeduetoregenerationwouldbeaccountedfor,resultinginpotentiallysignificantcreditsforwhichacorrespondingnetremovalofcarbonfromtheatmospherewouldnotoccur.Thisissuecouldbeconsideredwhendevelopingtheaccountingsystem.[2.2.3.2]23.ThereareseveralconsequencesofusingdefinitionsthatleadtothecreationoflandsunderArticle3.3bytheharvest-regenerationcycle(i.e.,whereharvestingisincludedinthedefinitionofdeforestation,orregenerationisincludedinthedefinitionofreforestation).Forexample,aforestestateman-agedonasustainable-yieldbasiswhereanareaofforestiscutinaregularcycle(e.g.,1/50thoftheforestisharvestedandregeneratedeachyearona50-yearrotationcycle)maybeinapproximatecarbonbalance.However,inthiscase,onlythosestandsharvestedorregeneratedsince1990wouldbeconsid-eredlandsunderArticle3.3.Theregrowth(carbonsink)ontheselandswillbelessthanthecarbonemissionsduetohar-vestinguntilallstandsoftheestatearelandsunderArticle3.3.Differentdefinitionalandaccountingapproacheswouldhavedifferentaccountingconsequences.Forexample:•Ifemissionsfromharvestingduringacommitmentperi-odarecounted(land-basedapproachI;seeTable3),thenduringthefirstandsubsequentcommitmentperiodsanetdebitcouldarisefromamanagedforestestatethatisapproximatelyincarbonbalance;•Ifemissionsfromharvestingduringacommitmentperiodpriortoregenerationarenotcounted(land-basedapproachII;seeTable3),thenduringthefirstandsubsequentcommitmentperiodsanetcreditwouldgenerallyarisefromamanagedforestestatethatisapproximatelyincarbonbalance.Thismaybeoffsettosomeextentbydelayedemissionsfromsoilsandharvestresidues;•Ifemissionsfromharvestingduringacommitmentperi-odarenotcounted(activity-basedapproach;seeTable3),thenduringthefirstandsubsequentcommit-mentperiodsanetcreditwouldarisefromregenerationinamanagedforestestatethatisapproximatelyincarbonbalance.Itwouldbepracticallyverydifficulttoseparatechangesinsoilcarbonpoolsassociatedwithharvestingandregenerationactivities.Ineachoftheseapproachestheaccountedstockchangeswouldgenerallybedifferentfromtheactualnetexchangeofcarbonbetweenthisexampleforestestateandtheatmosphereduringacommitmentperiod.[3.2,3.5.2]24.Afforestationisusuallydefinedastheestablishmentoffor-estonlandthathasbeenwithoutforestforaperiodoftime(e.g.,20–50yearsormore)andwaspreviouslyunderadifferentlanduse.Thepreciseperiodthatdistinguishesafforestedfromreforestedlandisnotimportantinaccount-ingforlandscoveredunderArticle3.3providedafforestationandreforestationaretreatedidenticallyundertheProtocol,astheyareintheRevised1996IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories.2[2.2.3,3.3.2]25.Article3.3encompassesARDactivitiesthathaveoccurredsince1990butrecognizesonlyverifiablecarbonstockchangesineachcommitmentperiod.Thishasseveralimpli-cations.Forexample:•Forlandsdeforestedbetween1990andthebeginningofthefirstcommitmentperiodonlyafractionofcarbonstockchanges(suchasthosefromdelayedcarbonemissionsfromsoilandwoodproductsiftheyareaccounted)willoccurduringthecommitmentperiodandwouldbedebitedunderArticle3.3.IftheseLandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry62.TheGlossaryoftheRevised1996IPCCGuidelinesdescribesafforestationas“Plantingofnewforestsonlandswhich,historically,havenotcontainedforests.ThesenewlycreatedforestsareincludedinthecategoryChangesinForestandOtherWoodyBiomassStocksintheLandUseChangeandForestrymoduleoftheemissionsinventorycalculations”andreforestationas“Plantingofforestsonlandswhichhave,historically,previouslycontainedforestsbutwhichhavebeenconvertedtosomeotheruse.Replantedforestsareincludedinthecate-goryChangesinForestandOtherWoodyBiomassStocksintheLandUseChangeandForestrymoduleoftheemissionsinventorycalcula-tions.”DeforestationdoesnotappearintheGlossaryoftheRevised1996IPCCGuidelines.TheRevised1996IPCCGuidelinesstate,referringtoland-usechange,that“Conversionofforestsisalsoreferredtoas‘deforestation’anditisfrequentlyaccompaniedbyburning.”TheRevised1996IPCCGuidelinesweredevelopedbeforetheKyotoProtocolwasadoptedandthereforeprovisionsmaynotbesufficienttomeettheneedsoftheKyotoProtocol.7LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestryEstimatedRangeofAccountedAverageAnnualStockChange2008–2012(MtCyr–1)Includescarboninabovegroundandbelow-groundbiomass,ARAverageAreaChange(Mhayr–1)excludescarboninsoilsandindeadorganicmatterRateofUptakeConversionFAODefinitionalFAODefinitionalFAODefinitional(tCha–1yr–1);betweenScenario,Scenario,Scenario,IPCCDAverageStockPost-HarvestNon-ForestLand-BasedILand-BasedIIActivity-BasedDefinitionalRegionActivity(tCha–1)RegenerationandForestAccountingAccountingAccountingScenarioBorealRegionAR0.4to1.23.10.1–209to–162–56to–85to480to2Total(=AnnexI)D350.5–18–18–18–18TotalARD–227to–180–74to–26–13to30–18to–16TemperateRegionAR1.5to4.55.40.5-550to-81-134to30381to5197to44AnnexID601.2-72-72-72-72TotalARD-622to-153-206to2319to447-65to-28AnnexITotalAR8.50.6-759to-243-190to29587to5737to46D1.7–90–90–90–90TotalARD–849to–333–280to205–3to483–83to–44TemperateRegionAR1.5to4.5n/a1.9n/an/an/a27to167TotalD602.1–126–126–126–126TotalARDn/an/an/a–99to41TropicalRegionAR4to8n/a2.6n/an/an/a170to415TotalD12013.7–1644–1644–1644–1644TotalARDn/an/an/a–1474to–1229GlobalTotalARn/a4.6n/an/an/a197to584(summingregionalD16.3–1788–788–1788–1788totals)TotalARDn/an/an/a–1591to–1204Notes:n/a=nonumberisprovidedbecausetheareaofregenerationafterharvestinthetropicalregionandpartofthetemperateregionwasnotavailable.Inaddition,regenerationafterselectivecutting,asitisoftenusedinthetropics,isdifficulttocapturewiththeFAODefinitionalScenario.Itisassumedthatrecentareaconversionrates[“recent”=forAnnexIPartiesARlate1980s/early1990sandforD1980s(exceptforCanadaandRussianFederationearly1990s);ARDinotherregions1980s]haveappliedsince1990,andwillcontinuetodosountil2012.TheIPCCDefinitionalScenarioincludestransitionsbetweenforestandnon-forestlandusesunderArticle3.3.Forthepurposesofthistable,itisassumedthatnotonlyplanting,butalsootherformsofstandestablishmentsuchasnaturalestablishment,areconsideredARactivities.TheFAODefinitionalScenarioincludestheharvest/regenerationcycle,becauseregenerationisdefinedasreforestation.WithintheFAODefinitionalScenario,threeaccountingapproachesaredistinguished(seeparagraph25andSection3.3.2).Uptakeratesareintendedtospantherangewithinwhichtheaveragevalueforeachregionisexpectedtobe.ThelowerboundoftheestimatedaverageannualstockchangecorrespondstotheloweruptakerateinARandthehigherboundtothehigheruptakerate.Treeshavebeenassumedtogrowaccordingtoasigmoidalgrowthcurve.Estimatedareaforconversionbetweennon-forestandforestshouldberegardedasanupperlimitforthetemperateregiontotalandthetropicalregion,becausesomecountriesmayhavereportedplantationsfor1990butnotfor1980,andbecausesomeoftheplantationsmaynotqualifyasresultingfromARactivitiesundertheIPCCDefinitionalScenario.Also,fortropicalcountries,thedeforestationestimatesareveryuncertainandcouldbeinerrorbyasmuchas±50%.Table3:EstimateofaccountedaverageannualcarbonstockchangeforARDactivities.TheIPCCandFAODefinitionalScenariosandthreeaccountingapproachesundertheFAODefinitionalScenariohavebeenappliedtoillustratewiththeavailabledatatheeffectofdifferentaccountingapproaches.OtherDefinitionalScenariosdescribedinChapter3,Table3-4,havenotbeenincludedinthisanalysis.Thefiguresandrangesofvaluesinthetableareillustrative,providefirst-orderestimates,andmaynotencom-passthefullrangeofuncertainties.Negativenumbersindicatecarbonemissionsandpositivenumberscarbonremovals.Fordetails,seeTable3-17inChapter3.landsaresubsequentlyreforestedthentheremaybeanincreaseincarbonstocksduringthecommitmentperiodandacreditunderArticle3.3.Thiswouldmeanthatthecreditreceivedwouldnotmatchtheactualcarbonstockchangesorthenetexchangesofcarbonwiththeatmospheresince1990;•Anotheraccountingissuecouldarisewhenlandisreforestedorafforestedbetween1990and2008butstocksarereducedeitherbyharvestingornaturaldisturbanceduringacommitmentperiod.Eventhoughtheforestareaandpossiblycarbonstocksmayhaveincreasedsince1990,adebitcouldberecordedinacommitmentperiod.Thiscreatesthepossibilityofanegativeincentiveforestablishingforestswellinadvanceofthefirstcommitmentperiod,becauseanystockincreasepriorto2008wouldnotbecreditedbutthelaterlossofthisstockwouldbedebited.Suchoutcomescouldpossiblybeaddressedthroughdifferentcombinationsofdefinitionalandaccountingapproaches.[3.3.2]26.Therearedefinitionalandcarbonaccountingissuesconcerningdrawingaclearboundarybetweennaturalphe-nomenaandhuman-inducedactivities,when,forexample,significantforestlossesoccurasaresultoffiresordistur-bancessuchaspestoutbreaks.IncasesinvolvinglandsunderArticle3.3or3.4wherefiresorpestoutbreaksoccurinaforest,aquestioniswhetheraccountingshould,interalia:(i)countneitherthelossnorsubsequentuptakeofcar-bon(whichreflectstheactualnetchangeincarbonstocksonthoselandsandexchangeofcarbonwiththeatmosphereinthelongterm,butcreatesproblemsincontinuingtoaccountfortheareaburnt/defoliatedaslandsunderArticle3.3or3.4);(ii)countboththelossandsubsequentuptakeofcarbon(whichreflectstheactualnetchangeincarbonstocksonthoselandsandexchangeofcarbonwiththeatmosphere,butcreatesaninitialcarbondebitforthePartyconcerned);(iii)countonlythelossofcarbon(whichwouldoverestimatetheactuallossesofcarbonstocks,notrepresenttheexchangesofcarbonwiththeatmosphere,andcreatefutureaccountingproblems);or(iv)countonlythesubsequentuptake(whichwouldfailtoreflecttheactualchangesincarbonstockandwouldnotrepresenttheexchangesofcar-bonwiththeatmosphere,andwouldprovidecarboncreditsforthePartyconcerned).[2.2.3.3]27.IncasesinvolvinglandsthatdonotfallunderArticles3.3or3.4,wherefiresorpestoutbreakstriggerland-usechange,theconsequencesaresimilartodeforestation.Ifsimilarvege-tationcoverisallowedtoregenerate,suchdisturbancesmaynotleadtoalong-termchangeincarbonstocks.[2.4.4,2.2.3,2.3.3]3.2AdditionalActivities328.WhentheinclusionofadditionalactivitiesunderArticle3.4isconsidered,itispossibletointerpret“activity”broadly(e.g.,croplandmanagement)ornarrowly(e.g.,changeintillagemethod,fertilization,orcovercrops).Undereitherinterpretation,itis,inprinciple,possibletochooseeitheraland-basedoranactivity-basedmethodofcarbonaccount-ingoracombinationofboth(seeSection4).Thesecombinedchoiceswillaffecttheaccuracy,feasibility,cost,trans-parency,andverifiabilityofmonitoringandreportingofemissionsandremovals,includingnon-CO2greenhousegases,andattributingthemtospecificactivities.[2.3.2.2,4.3.1,4.3.2]29.Theterm“broadactivity”meansanactivitydefinitionthatisland-orarea-based,wheretheneteffectofallpracticesappliedwithinthesameareaareincluded.Abroadactivitydefinitionislikelytorequireland-basedaccounting(seeparagraph34).Thisdefinitionalapproachwouldcapturethenetemissionorremovaleffectsofpracticesthatdepletecarbonstocksaswellasthosethatincreaseremovalsbysinks.Broadactivitydefinitions,particularlyincaseswhereland-usechangeisinvolved,maymakeitdifficulttoseparatehuman-inducedchangesfromnaturally-inducedchanges.[2.3.2,4.3.2]30.Thenarrowdefinitionof“activity”isbasedonindividualpractices,suchasreducedtillageorirrigationwaterman-agement.Thenarrowdefinitionmaylenditselftoactivity-basedaccounting,butland-basedaccountingisalsopossible.Underactivity-basedaccounting,discretedefinitionsandassociatedratesofemissionsorremovalsareneededforeachindividualpractice.Narrowdefinitionsraisethepoten-tialformultipleactivitiestooccuronasinglelandarea,raisingaccountingissues(seeparagraph33).Narrowactiv-itydefinitionsmayfacilitatetheseparationofhuman-inducedchangesfromnaturalinfluences(seeparagraph45).[4.2.1,4.3.2,4.3.4]4.CarbonAccounting31.Awell-designedcarbonaccountingsystemwouldprovidetransparent,consistent,comparable,complete,accurate,ver-ifiable,andefficientrecordingandreportingofchangesincarbonstocksand/orchangesingreenhousegasemissionsbysourcesandremovalsbysinksfromapplicablelanduse,land-usechange,andforestryactivitiesandprojectsunderrel-evantArticlesoftheKyotoProtocol.SuchdatawouldbeneededtoassesscompliancewiththecommitmentsundertheKyotoProtocol.Twopossibleaccountingapproachestowardsmeetingtheserequirementsareoutlinedbelow,ofwhicheitherone—orcombinationofthetwo—couldbeadopt-ed(seeFigure1).[2.3.1]32.A“land-based”approachtoaccountingwouldtakeasitsstartingpointthechangeincarbonstockinapplicablecar-bonpoolsonlandscontainingactivitiesincludedunderLandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry83.Thetechnicalissuesaddressedinparagraph26alsoapplytoadditionalactivitiesadoptedunderArticle3.4,butarenotrepeatedhereforconciseness.Article3.3oracceptedunderArticle3.4.Thisinvolvesfirstdefiningtheapplicableactivities,andinthenextstepiden-tifyingthelandunitsonwhichtheseactivitiesoccur.Next,thechangeincarbonstocksontheselandunitsduringtherel-evantperiodisdetermined.Intheland-basedapproach,itcouldbedifficulttofactorouttheimpactonstocksofindi-recteffects(seeparagraph44).Non-CO2greenhousegasemissionestimateswouldalsoneedtobeaccountedfor.Modificationscouldbemaderegarding,forexample,base-lines,leakage,timingissues,permanence,anduncertainties.AggregateaccountedCO2emissionsandremovalsarethesumofcarbonstockchanges(netofanymodifications)overallapplicablelandunitsoverthespecifiedtimeperiod.[2.3.2,3.3.2]33.An“activity-based”approachtoaccountingwouldstartwiththecarbonstockchangeinapplicablecarbonpoolsand/oremissions/removalofgreenhousegasesattributabletodesignatedLULUCFactivities.Afterdefiningtheapplic-ableactivities,eachapplicableactivity’simpactoncarbonstocksisdeterminedperunitareaandtimeunit.Thisimpactismultipliedbytheareaonwhicheachactivityoccursandbytheyearsitisappliedortheyearsofthecommitmentperi-od.Modificationscouldbemaderegarding,forexample,baselines,leakage,timingissues,permanence,anduncer-tainties.Aggregateaccountedemissionsandremovalsarecalculatedbysummingacrossapplicableactivities.Potentiallyagivenareaoflandcouldbecountedmorethanonceifitissubjecttomultipleactivities.Iftheeffectsofactivitiesarenotadditive,thiswouldresultininaccurateaccounting.Inthiscase,thecarbonstockwouldbeespeciallydifficulttoverify.Alternatively,thePartiescoulddecidethateachlandunitcouldcontainnomorethanasingleactivity.Inthiscase,thecombinedimpactofmultipleprac-ticesappliedinthesameareawouldbeconsideredasingleactivity.[2.3.2,3.3.2,4.3.3]34.Theland-basedapproachtoaccountingcouldstarteitherwiththestartoftheactivityorrunfortheentirecommitmentperiod,whiletheactivity-basedapproachwouldstartwhentheactivitystartsoratthebeginningofthecommitmentperi-od,whicheverislater.EitheraccountingapproachcouldendaccordingtodecisionsthatthePartiesmightadopt.Intheactivity-basedapproach,stockchangespriortothestartoftheactivitywouldnotbeaccounted,eveniftheyoccurinacommitmentperiod.[2.3.2]35.Someactivitiesmustbepersistentlymaintainedtoretainthestoredcarbonstocks,andthismayinfluencetheaccountingmethodsrequired.Conservationtillage,forexample,mayincreasecarbonstocksoncroplandifcarriedoncontinu-ously,butwhereitispracticedforatime,theninterruptedbyayearofintensivetillagebroughtonby,forexample,aweathersituationorcropchange,muchofthepreviousmulti-yeargaininsoilcarboncanbelost.Land-basedesti-matesofthecroplandestateshouldreflecttheneteffectof9LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestrySTEP1STEP2STEP3STEP4Land-BasedAccountingActivity-BasedAccountingSumoverLandUnitsandCommitmentPeriodSumoverActivitiesandCommitmentPeriodDefinitionofApplicableLULUCFActivitiesundertheKyotoProtocolreferringtoSpecificLandAreasLandUnitsperActivityChangesinCarbonStocksandNetGreenhouseGasEmissionsperLandUnitandTimePeriodDefinitionofApplicableLULUCFActivitiesundertheKyotoProtocolChangesinCarbonStocksandNetGreenhouseGasEmissionsperActivity,UnitofArea,andTimePeriodLandAreaperActivityFigure1:Accountingapproaches.thosegainsandlossesoverthefullareaduringtheaccount-ingperiodandgiveverifiableresults,providedstatisticallyrepresentativesamplingproceduresareinplace.Ifactivity-basedaccountingoccurswithoutsampling,itmayreportresultsinconsistentwithactualstockchangesduringtheaccountingperiod.[2.3.2]36.Fortechnicalreasons,onlyemissionsandremovalsofCO2canbedetermineddirectlyaschangesincarbonstocks.Methaneemissionsandremovalscannotinpracticebedirect-lymeasuredascarbonstockchanges,althoughCH4andN2Ocanbedeterminedbyothermeans.Methaneandnitrousoxideemissionsfrommanyland-useactivitiesareincludedinAnnexAoftheKyotoProtocol(e.g.,ricecultivation,entericfermentation,andagriculturalsoils)andintheRevised1996IPCCReportingGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories,andthereforetheywillbecapturedinnationalinventories.Thisisnotthecase,however,foremis-sionsofthesegasesrelatedtoforestryactivitiesandprojects,whicharenotincludedinAnnexA,althoughsomeoftheseforestryactivitiesarediscussedinthe1996RevisedIPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories.IfthenetemissionsofCH4andN2Oarenotconsidered,thefullclimateimpactofforestryactivitiesmaynotbereflectedintheaccountingsystemundertheKyotoProtocol.Thetreat-mentofCH4andN2OemissionsunderArticle3.3maydeservefurtherconsiderationandclarification.Foragreedactivities,Article3.4leavesopenhownetgreenhousegasemissionswillbeaccountedforinmeetingthecommit-mentsunderArticle3.1oftheProtocol.[2.3.2,3.3.2]37.Relevantcarbonpoolscouldincludeabovegroundbiomass,litterandwoodydebris,below-groundbiomass,soilcar-bon,andharvestedmaterials.Theimpactonthesedifferentcarbonpoolsmayvarysignificantlybetweenactivitiesandtypesofprojects.Whilemethodsexisttomeasureallcarbonpools,todatemonitoringisnotroutinelyperformedonallpoolsandthecostsvarysignificantly.Aconservativeapproachthatwouldallowforselectiveaccountingofcarbonpoolstoreducemonitoringcostscouldbetoincludeallthosepoolsanticipatedtohavereducedcarbonstockswhileomittingselectedpoolsanticipated,withasufficientlevelofcertainty,tohaveunchangedorincreasedcarbonstocks.Similarapproachescouldbeusedforfluxesofnon-CO2greenhousegases.Underthisapproach,verifiabilitywouldmeanthatonlyincreasesincarbonstocksandremovalbysinksthatcanbemonitoredandestimatedcouldpotentiallybecredited.[2.3.7,3.3.2,4.2.1]38.AccountingforLULUCFactivitiesunderArticles3.3and3.4includesdifferenttypesofuncertainties,includingmea-surementuncertainty,uncertaintyinidentifyinglandsunderArticle3.3or3.4,anduncertaintyindefiningandquantify-ingbaselines,ifany.Thisuncertaintycanbeaccountedforinseveralways.Oneapproachistoextendtheapplicationofgoodpracticeguidanceinthechoiceofmethodsandhan-dlingofuncertaintyinestimateswhichhasbeendevelopedbytheIPCCforotherinventorycategories.Anotherapproachcouldbetoadjustestimatedstockchangesinaconservativeway—understatingincreasesandoverstatingdecreasesinstocks.Thelatteroptioncouldallowtradeoffsbetweenmon-itoringcostsandthepotentialtoreceiveincreasedcarboncreditsorreduceddebits,butwouldnotbeconsistentwithestablishedprinciplesforestimationofemissionsandremovalsingreenhousegasinventories.[2.3.7]39.Changesincarbonstocksinwoodproductscouldpotentiallybeaccountedaspartoftheactivitythatisthesourceofthewoodproductsorasanindependentwoodproductsman-agementactivity.Ifmanagementofwoodproductsistreat-edasanadditionalactivityunderArticle3.4,thenitmaybenecessarytoexcludewoodproductsfromaccountingunderotherArticle3.3or3.4activitiestoavoiddouble-counting.Oncewoodproductsareintrade,theywouldbedifficultinmostinstancestotrace.ThecurrentIPCCdefaultapproachassumesthatthewoodproductpoolremainsconstantovertime,andthereforedoesnotaccountforit.However,ifthispoolischangingsignificantlyovertime,apotentiallyimpor-tantpoolmaynotbeaccountedfor.[2.4.2,3.3.2,4.5.6,6.3.3]40.Enhancementofcarbonstocksresultingfromlanduse,land-usechange,andforestryactivitiesispotentiallyreversiblethroughhumanactivities,disturbances,orenvi-ronmentalchange,includingclimatechange.ThispotentialreversibilityisacharacteristicfeatureofLULUCFactivi-tiesincontrasttoactivitiesinothersectors.Thispotentialreversibilityandnonpermanenceofstocksmayrequireattentionwithrespecttoaccounting,forexample,byensur-ingthatanycreditforenhancedcarbonstocksisbalancedbyaccountingforanysubsequentreductionsinthosecarbonstocks,regardlessofthecause.[2.3.6,3.3.2]41.ContiguouscommitmentperiodsundertheKyotoProtocolwouldavoidincentivesinsubsequentperiodstoconcen-trateactivitiesthatreducecarbonstocksintimeperiodsthatwerenotcovered.[2.3.2]42.Policiesbygovernmentsorotherinstitutions(e.g.,landtenurereformandtaxincentives)mayprovideaframeworkandincentivesforimplementingLULUCFactivities.Changesinmarketsmayalsoaffecttheeconomicconditionsforlanduse,land-usechange,andforestryactivities.Theabilitytomeasuretheimpactoftheseconditionsandincen-tiveswilldepend,inpart,uponthecarboninventoryandmonitoringsystemineachcountry.However,itmaybeverydifficultforcountriestoassesstherelativeimpactofpoliciesbygovernmentsorotherinstitutionscomparedtootherhumanandnaturalfactorsthatdrivechangesincarbonstocks.[2.3.5,5.2.2]43.Naturalvariability,suchasElNiñocycles,andtheindirecteffectsofhumanactivity,suchasCO2fertilization,nutrientdeposition,andtheeffectsofclimatechange,couldsignif-icantlyaffectcarbonstocksduringacommitmentperiodonlandsunderArticle3.3or3.4.ThespatialdistributionofLandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry10theemissionsandremovalsofgreenhousegasesduetothesefactorsisuncertain,asistheportionofthemthatmayentertheaccountingsystem.Theseemissionsandremovalscouldbepotentiallylargecomparedtothecom-mitmentsinthefirstcommitmentperiod.Thiscouldbeasig-nificantissueinthedesignofanaccountingframework.[2.3.3]44.TheKyotoProtocolspecifiesthataccountingunderArticle3.3berestrictedto“directhuman-inducedland-usechangeandforestryactivities,limitedtoafforestation,reforesta-tion,anddeforestation”occurringsince1990.Foractivitiesthatinvolveland-usechanges(e.g.,fromgrassland/pas-turetoforest)itmaybeverydifficult,ifnotimpossible,todistinguishwithpresentscientifictoolsthatportionoftheobservedstockchangethatisdirectlyhuman-inducedfromthatportionthatiscausedbyindirectandnaturalfactors.[2.3.4,3.3.2]45.Forthoseactivitieswhereonlynarrowlydefinedmanage-mentchangesunderArticle3.4areinvolved(e.g.,conservationtillage)andthelanduseremainsthesame,itmaybefeasibletofactoroutpartiallynaturalvariabilityandindirecteffects.Oneapproachmaybetosubtractthestockchangesoncomparisonplotswheretherehavebeennochangesinmanagementpracticefromchangesmeasuredonplotswithmodifiedmanagementactivities.Inmostcases,experimentalmanipulationorpairedplotscanbeusedforthispurpose,buttheyarelikelytobeexpensivetoapplyoverlargeareas.Ecosystemmodelscanalsobeusedbutneedfurtherimprovementtodecreaseuncertain-ties.Verifiabilitycouldbeassistedbytheapplicationofacombinationofmodelsandmeasurements.[2.3.4,4.3.4]46.BaselinescouldbeusedinsomecasestodistinguishbetweentheeffectsofLULUCFactivitiesandotherfactors,suchasnaturalvariabilityandtheindirecteffectsofhumanactivi-ties,aswellastofactorouttheeffectsofbusiness-as-usualandactivitiesundertakenpriorto1990oncarbonstockaccountsandnetgreenhousegasemissions.IftheconceptofabaselinewastobeappliedinnationalaccountingforactivitiesunderArticle3.4,therearemanyoptions,whichinclude:(i)thestock/fluxchangethatwouldhaveresultedfrom“business-as-usual”activities;(ii)thestock/fluxchangethatwouldhaveresultedfromthecontinuationof1990activitylevels;(iii)thestock/fluxchangethatwouldresultintheabsenceofactivemanagement;(iv)performancebenchmarksorstandardmanagementpractice;and(v)therateofchangeofstocks/fluxesin1990.Thefirstthreeofthesebaselineoptionsmayinvolvetheuseofacounterfac-tualscenario.Onedifficultywiththeuseofcounterfactualbaselinesisverification.[2.3.4,4.6,4.6.3.3]47.Accountingunderthetermsland-usechangeandforestryinArticle3.7willdeterminewhichemissionsandremovalsofcarbonwillenterthe1990baseyearorperiodforsomecountries.Iftheland-usechangeactivitiesgivingrisetotheseemissionsandremovalsarenotincludedunderArticle3.3or3.4duringthecommitmentperiods,thentheinventoriesofcountriessubjecttothisclauseinArticle3.7wouldnotbecalculatedonthesamebasisastheir1990emissionsbaseyearorperiod.[3.3.2]48.IfdifferentaccountingrulesareadoptedforrelevantArticlesoftheKyotoProtocol,additionaldecisionrulesmaybeneededtodeterminewhichaccountingruleappliestolandthat,overtime,issubjecttomultipletypesofactivities.Forexample,onesetofaccountingrulescouldbegivenprima-cyincaseswheremorethanonesetcouldpotentiallyapplyanddouble-countingmightresult.[2.3.2,3.3.2]49.Leakageischangesinemissionsandremovalsofgreenhousegasesoutsidetheaccountingsystemthatresultfromactiv-itiesthatcausechangeswithintheboundaryoftheaccount-ingsystem.Therearefourtypesofleakage:activitydis-placement,demanddisplacement,supplydisplacement,andinvestmentcrowding.Ifleakageoccurs,thentheaccountingsystemwillfailtogiveacompleteassessmentofthetrueaggregatechangesinducedbytheactivity.Althoughleakageisinmanycasesanegativeeffect,situations,suchasthedemonstrationeffectofnewmanagementapproachesortechnologyadoption,mayoccurwheretheemissionsreduc-tionsorremovalsofgreenhousegasesextendbeyondtheaccountingsystemboundaries(positivespillovereffect).Forsomeactivitiesandprojecttypes,leakagemaybeaddressedbyincreasingthespatialandtemporalscaleoftheaccountingsystemboundaries(i.e.,byincludingareaswherechangesinremovalandemissionsofgreenhousegasesmaybeinduced).However,leakagemayextendbeyondanyactivityaccountingboundaries(e.g.,beyondnationalbound-aries).Leakageisofparticularconcerninproject-levelaccounting,butmayalsooccurwithactivitiesunderArticles3.3and3.4.[2.3.5.2,5.3.3]PartIII5.MethodsforMeasuringandMonitoring50.LandsunderArticles3.3and3.4couldbeidentified,moni-tored,andreportedusinggeographicalandstatisticalinformation.Changesincarbonstocksandnetgreenhousegasemissionsovertimecanbeestimatedusingsomecombinationofdirectmeasurements,activitydata,andmodelsbasedonacceptedprinciplesofstatisticalanalysis,forestinventory,remote-sensingtechniques,fluxmeasure-ments,soilsampling,andecologicalsurveys.Thesemethodsvaryinaccuracy,precision,verifiability,cost,andscaleofapplication.Thecostofmeasuringchangesincarbonstocksandnetgreenhousegasemissionsforagivenareaincreasesasbothdesiredprecisionandlandscapeheterogeneityincrease.[2.4,3.4]51.Thespatialresolutionofmonitoringhasimportantimpli-cationsforaccuracyandcosts.Ifasmallminimum11LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestryresolvablelandareaisused,thetaskandcostofmonitoringcanbecomeverydemanding.Ifthespatialresolutionissetatacoarsescale,thedatademandscanbemodest,butsignificantareassubjecttoanactivitymaybelostintheaveragingprocess.Forexample,ifforestsanddeforestationaredefinedintermsofcanopycoverandcanopycoverisassessedoverlandareasof100ha,thendeforestationofsmallerareaswithinaunitmaynottakethecanopycoveroftheunitbelowtheforestdefinitionthreshold.Thus,changesincarbonstocksmaynotbeaccountedand,like-wise,afforestationorreforestationofsmallareasmaynotbeaccounted.Hence,therearecleartradeoffsbetweenanaccurateandpreciseassessmentofchangesincarbonstocksandcost.However,anappropriatedesignshouldresultinastatisticallyreliableestimate.[2.2.2]52.ThetechnicalcapacityrequiredbyAnnexIPartiestomea-sure,monitor,andverifycarbonstockchangesandnetgreenhousegasemissionsundertheKyotoProtocolwillbesignificantlyaffectedbydecisionsofthePartiesregardingdefinitionsofkeytermsrelatedtolanduse,land-usechange,andforestryactivities.Itwillalsodependondecisionson,interalia,additionalactivitiesthatmaybeincludedunderArticle3.4,andwhetheradditionalactivitiesaredefinedbroadlyornarrowly.Dependingupondecisionsthatmaybemade,establishingamonitoring,reporting,andverificationsystemunderArticles3.3and3.4islikelytoinvolveasig-nificanteffortbyAnnexIParties,giventhetechnology,data,andresourcesrequired,andtheshorttimeavailable.[2.4.1,3.4,4.3.2,4.3.5]53.AnnexIPartiesgenerallyhavethebasictechnicalcapacity(soilandforestinventories,land-usesurveys,andinforma-tionbasedonremote-sensingandothermethods)tomeasurecarbonstocksandnetgreenhousegasemissionsinterrestrialecosystems.However,few,ifany,countriesperformallofthesemeasurementsroutinely,particularlysoilinventories.SomeAnnexIPartiesmayuseexistingcapacitywithmini-malmodificationtoimplementthevariousArticlesintheKyotoProtocol;however,someotherAnnexIPartiesmayneedtoimprovesignificantlytheirexistingmeasurementsys-temsinordertodevelopoperationalsystems.Non-AnnexIPartiesmayrequiretechnical,institutional,andfinancialassistanceandcapacitybuildingformeasuring,monitor-ing,andverifyingcarbonstockchangesaswellasforestimatingnetgreenhousegasemissions.[2.4.6,3.4.3,4.2]54.Technicalmethodsformeasuringandestimatingchangesinforestcarbonstocksinabovegroundbiomassoverafive-yearcommitmentperiodmaybedeemedtobesensitiveenoughtoservetherequirementsoftheProtocol.Sensitivemethodsforestimatingbelow-groundcarbonstocksalsoexist.However,changesinsoilcarbonstocksareinsomeinstancessmallanddifficulttoassessaccuratelyoverafive-yeartimeperiod.Thisproblemmaybeaddressedbyadoptingappro-priatesamplingtechniquessupportedbymodelingthattakeintoaccountspatialvariability.MethodsthatfurtherimproveestimatesofsoilandvegetationcarbonstockwilldependonfutureresearchandmodeldevelopmentandarelikelytobehighlytransferablebetweenParties.[2.4.2,2.4.3,4.2.2,5.4.1]6.EstimatesofAverageAnnualCarbonStockChanges/AccountedforARDActivitiesandSomeAdditionalActivities6.1Afforestation,Reforestation,andDeforestation55.DifferentdefinitionsandaccountingapproachesunderArticle3.3oftheKyotoProtocolproducedifferentesti-matesofchangesincarbonstocks.TherearesevenDefinitionalScenariosdescribedinChapter3oftheunder-lyingreport.Table3illustrates,withdataandmethodsavail-ableatthetimeoftheSpecialReport,theestimatedcarbonstockchangesaccountedfromARDactivitiesundertheIPCCandFAODefinitionalScenarios,assumingrecentareaconversionratesremainconstantandexcludingcarboninsoilsandwoodproducts.ThreedifferentcarbonaccountingapproacheshavebeenappliedtotheFAODefinitionalScenariotoillustratetheeffectofdifferentaccountingapproaches.[3.5.3,3.5.4,Table3-4,Table3-17]56.TheIPCCDefinitionalScenarioyieldsestimatesofaverageannualaccountedcarbonstockchangesfromafforestationandreforestationinAnnexIPartiesfrom2008to2012of7to46MtCyr–1.Thiswouldbeoffsetbyannualchangesincarbonstocksfromdeforestationofabout–90MtCyr–1,pro-ducinganetstockchangeof-83to–44MtCyrr–1.Ifhypo-thetically,forexample,afforestationandreforestationratesweretobeincreasedinAnnexIPartiesby20%4fortheyears2000to2012,estimatedannualchangesincarbonstockswouldincrease(from7to46MtCyrr–1)to7to49MtCyrr–1.Ifhypothetically,forexample,deforestationratesweretobedecreasedby20%,estimatedannuallossesofcar-bonstocksduetodeforestationwouldreduce(from–90MtCyrr–1)to–72MtCyrr–1.[3.5.4]57.ThethreeaccountingapproachesundertheFAODefinitionalScenarioyielddifferentresults.EstimatedaverageannualcarbonstockchangesinAnnexIPartiesfromafforestationandreforestationare–759to–243MtCyrr–1undertheFAOland-basedIapproach;–190to295MtCyrr–1undertheFAOland-basedIIapproach;and87to573MtCyr–1undertheFAOactivity-basedapproach.Estimatedaverageannu-alcarbonstockchangesfromdeforestationareabout–90MtCyrr–1inallthreeapproaches,asintheIPCCDefinitionalScenario.[3.5.4]58.Forcomparison,theIPCCDefinitionalScenarioyieldsestimatesofaverageannualaccountedcarbonstockchangesfromafforestationandreforestationgloballyfrom2008to2012of197to584MtCyr–1.ThiswouldbeoffsetLandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry124.The20%isanarbitraryvaluechosentoshowthesensitivityoftheestimatestochangesinpractices.byannualchangesincarbonstocksfromdeforestationofabout–1788MtCyrr–1,producinganetstockchangeof–1591to–1204MtCyr–1.If,hypothetically,forexample,afforestationandreforestationratesweretobeincreasedgloballyby20%fortheyears2000to2012,esti-matedannualchangesincarbonstockswouldincrease(from197to584MtCyr–1)to208to629MtCyr–1.[3.5.4]59.IntheIPCCDefinitionalScenarioandFAODefinitionalScenariowithland-basedIaccountingapproach,theaccountedcarbonstockchangesarebroadlyconsistentwiththe2008–2012actualchangesincarbonstocksfromlandunderArticle3.3.TheIPCCandFAODefinitionalScenariosbringdifferentamountsoflandunderArticle3.3,hencetheestimatedcarbonstockchangesinTable3differ.60.IntheFAODefinitionalScenariowithland-basedIIandactivity-basedaccountingapproaches,theaccountedcarbonstockchangeisnotconsistentwiththe2008–2012actualchangesincarbonstocksonlandunderArticle3.3,exceptinthecaseofshortrotationcycles.61.InneitherofthetwoDefinitionalScenariosistheaccount-edcarbonstockchangeconsistentwiththe2008–2012actu-alcarbonstockchanges,norwiththenetexchangeswiththeatmosphere,atthenationalandgloballevelsinpartbecausethelandunderArticle3.3issmallincomparisonwiththenationalandglobalforestarea.[3.3.2,3.5.4]6.2AdditionalActivities62.Themagnitudeofthestockchangesfromadditionalactiv-itiesthatmightbeincludedunderArticle3.4rests,interalia,onanydecisionsthatremaintobemadeintheprocessofimplementingtheKyotoProtocol.Aconsiderationofcarbonstockschangesandnetemissionsofgreenhousegasemissionsassociatedwithadditionalactivitiesonmanagedlandsentailssynthesizingavailabletechnicalandscientificdata,outliningtheoutcomesofonepolicyscenario,andassessingtheaggregateimpactofpoliciesandotherfactors.Thescientificliteraturetosupportsuchananalysisiscur-rentlyquitelimited.[4.3]63.OnesuchscenarioispresentedinTable4,toillustrateinageneralsensethepotentialscopeforcarbonstockincreas-esthroughsomebroadlydefinedactivities.ItprovidesdataandinformationoncarbonstockchangesforsomecandidateactivitiesunderArticle3.4fortheyear2010.Thisscenarioreliesonthreecomponentsrelatingtothecandidateactivi-ties:(1)anestimateofcurrentrelevantlandareas(column2);(2)anassumedpercentageofthoselandsonwhichanactivitywouldbeappliedin2010(column3);and(3)aresearch-derivedestimateoftheannualrateofcarbonstockincreaseperhectare(column4).Theuptakerateismultipliedbytheapplicablelandareatoapproximatelycalculatethechangeincarbonstockintheyear2010(column5).64.Table4,ratherthanprovidingpreciseprojections,reportscalculatedstockchangesassuminganambitiouspolicyagen-dathatpromotestheapplicationofactivitiestoasignificant-lygreatershareoftherelevantlandbasethanwouldhaveoth-erwiseoccurred.Theassumedpercentageoflandsonwhichtheactivityisappliedisderivedfromconsideredprofession-aljudgmentbasedonexistingliteratureofwhatarangeofsus-tainedandeffectiveinitiatives,whichvaryacrosscountries,couldachieve.Theshareoflandonwhichtheactivityisactuallyappliedin2010dependstoagreatextentontheaccountingsystemunderArticle3.4,theevolvingeconomicandsocialaspectsoftheactivity,andlandownerresponsetoincentives,amongotherfactors.Thus,thetotalannualstockchangesinTable4(column5)arelikelytobeonthehighside.65.Table4estimatesdonotnecessarilyrepresentcreditsunderArticle3.4oftheKyotoProtocol,evenifsuchlevelsofstockchangeareachieved,becausetheProtocolmayincludeapproachesthatlimittheapplicabilityofthesecalculations.66.Table4illustratestheestimatedcarbonstockchangesfromexampleadditionalactivitieswithinAnnexIandglobally,assumingroughlysimilarlevelsofpolicysupport.Forexam-ple,Table4suggeststhatalthoughconversionofcroplandtograsslandcanprovidearelativelylargecarbonstockincreaseperhectareconverted,forestmanagementimprovements,whichcanbeappliedoveralargerlandbase,mayproviderelativelylargertotalannualincreases.Verydifferentesti-matesinchangesofemissionsandremovalsassociatedwithoptionsforadditionallanduse,land-usechange,andforestryactivitieswouldresultfromdifferentdefinitionsofadditionalactivitiesthatmightbeagreedunderArticle3.4,differentaccountingapproaches,anddifferentdecisionsthatmightbetakenonimplementationrulesforArticle3.4.67.Thereispotentialforcarbonuptakeintobiomass,whichmaybestoredoveratimeperiodofdecadesinwoodproducts.Furthermore,biomassusedforenergypurposes,basedonwasteby-productsofwood/cropsorfromtrees/cropsgrownexpresslyforthispurpose,hasthepotentialtoleadtoareductioninnetgreenhousegasemissionsbysubstitutingforfossilfuels.[1.4.3,1.4.4]68.Table4doesnotaccountforthepossiblysignificantnon-CO2greenhousegasemissionsandremovalsthatcouldbeinfluencedbythecandidateactivities.Forexample,theratesdonotreflectnetemissionsofCH4orN2Ofromagri-culturalpracticesorwetlands/permafrostmanagement.Thetablealsodoesnotincludethecarbonstockimpactoftheuseofbiofuelsandthechangingwoodproductpools,andcon-siderationofforestmanagementdoesnotincludeavoideddeforestation,whichisdealtwithinTable3.7.Project-BasedActivities69.ALULUCFprojectcanbedefinedasaplannedsetofactivitiesaimedatreducinggreenhousegasemissionsor13LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestryenhancingcarbonstocksthatisconfinedtooneormoregeographiclocationsinthesamecountryandspecifiedtimeperiodandinstitutionalframeworkssuchastoallownetgreenhousegasemissionsorenhancingcarbonstockstobemonitoredandverified.ExperienceisbeinggainedinActivitiesImplementedJointly(AIJ)andotherLULUCFprojectsthatareunderinitialstagesofimplementationinatleast19countries.70.Assessmentoftheexperienceoftheseprojectsisconstrainedbythesmallnumber,thelimitedrangeofprojecttypes,theunevengeographicdistribution,theshortperiodoffieldoperationstodate,andtheabsenceofaninternationallyagreedsetofguidelinesandmethodstoestablishbaselinesandquantifyemissionsanduptake.Generally,theseprojectsdonotreportallgreenhousegasemissionsorestimateleak-age,andfewhaveindependentreview.71.However,throughtheexperienceofLULUCFprojectsaimedtomitigateclimatechange,itispossibleinsomecasestodevelopapproachestoaddresssomeofthecriticalissues(seeTable5).72.Thereare10projectsaimedatdecreasingemissionsthroughavoidingdeforestationandimprovingforestmanagement,and11projectsaimedatincreasingtheuptakeofcarbon—mostlyforestprojectsintropicalcountries(seeTable5).[5.2.2]LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry14(3)Assumed(4)NetAnnual(5)EstimatedPercentageofTotalRateofChangeNetChange(2)TotalAreaofColumn2inCarbonStocksinCarbonStocksAreabunderActivityperHectarebin2010(1)Activity(Mha)in2010(%)(tCha–1yr–1)(MtCyr–1)A.AnnexICountries(a)ImprovedManagementwithinaLandUsecForestManagement1900100.5100CroplandManagement600400.375GrazingLandManagement1300100.570Agroforestry83300.512RicePaddies4800.1<1UrbanLandManagement5050.31(b)Land-UseChangeConversionofCroplandtoGrassland60050.824Agroforestry<1000WetlandRestoration23050.44RestoringSeverelyDegradedLand1250.251B.GlobalEstimates(a)ImprovedManagementwithinaLandUseForestManagement4050100.4170CroplandManagement1300300.3125GrazingLandManagement3400100.7240Agroforestry400200.326RicePaddies150500.17UrbanLandManagement10050.32(b)Land-UseChangeAgroforestry630203.1390ConversionofCroplandtoGrassland150030.838WetlandRestoration23050.44RestoringSeverelyDegradedLand28050.33aTotalswerenotincludedinthetableforseveralreasons:(i)Thelistofcandidateactivitiesisnotexclusiveorcomplete;(ii)itisunlikelythatallcountrieswouldapplyallcandidateactivities;and(iii)theanalysisdoesnotpresumetoreflectthefinalinterpretationsofArticle3.4.Someoftheseestimatesreflectconsiderableuncertainty.bAsummaryofreferencesourcesiscontainedinTables4-1and4-4ofthisSpecialReport.Calculatedvalueswereroundedtoavoidtheappearanceofprecisionbeyondtheintentoftheauthors.Theratesgivenareaverageratesthatareassumedtoremainconstantto2010.cAssumedtobethebestavailablesuiteofmanagementpracticesforeachlanduseandclimaticzone.Table4:Relativepotentialin2010fornetchangeincarbonstocksthroughsomeimprovedmanagementandchangedland-useactivities.a73.Methodsoffinancialanalysisamongtheseprojectshavenotbeencomparable.Moreoverthecostcalculationsdonotcover,inmostinstances,interalia,costsforinfrastructure,monitoring,datacollectionandinterpretationcosts,oppor-tunitycostsoflandandmaintenance,orotherrecurringcosts,whichareoftenexcludedoroverlooked.Recognizingthedifferentmethodsused,theundiscountedcostandinvest-mentestimatesrangefromUS$0.1–28pertonofcarbon,simplydividingprojectcostbytheirtotalreportedaccumu-latedcarbonuptakeorestimatedemissionsavoided,assum-ingnoleakageoutsidetheprojectboundaries.[5.2.3]74.Project-levelfinancialanalysismethodsarewidelyusedandfairlystandardizedindevelopmentassistanceandprivateinvestmentprojects.Buttheyhaveyettobeconsistentlyappliedto,andreportedfor,LULUCFprojectsaimingatmit-igatingclimatechange.Guidelinesfordevelopingmethodsoffinancialanalysismaybeneededinthefuture.[5.2.3]75.LULUCFprojectsaimingtomitigateclimatechangemayprovidesocioeconomicandenvironmentalbenefitsprimar-ilywithinprojectboundaries,althoughtheymayalsoposerisksofnegativeimpacts.Experiencefrommostofthepilotprojectstodateindicatesthatinvolvementoflocalstake-holdersinthedesignandmanagementofprojectactivitiesisoftencritical.Otherfactorsaffectingthecapacityofpro-jectstoincreasecarbonuptakeandavoidgreenhousegasemissionsandtohaveotherbenefitsincludeconsistencywithnationaland/orinternationalsustainabledevelopmentgoals,andinstitutionalandtechnicalcapacitytodevelopandimplementprojectguidelinesandsafeguards.[2.5.2,5.6]76.Theaccountingofchangesincarbonstocksandnetgreen-housegasemissionsinvolveadeterminationthatprojectactivitiesleadtochangesincarbonstocksandnetgreenhousegasemissionsthatareadditionaltoawithout-projectbase-line.Currentlythereisnostandardmethodfordeterminingbaselinesandadditionality.Approachesincludedeterminingproject-specificbaselinesorgenericbenchmarks.MostAIJprojectshaveusedaproject-specificapproachthathasanadvantageofusingbetterknowledgeoflocalconditionsyieldingmoreaccurateprediction.Adisadvantageisthatpro-jectdevelopersmaychoosescenariosthatmaximizetheirprojectedbenefits.Baselinesmaybefixedthroughoutthedurationofaprojectorperiodicallyadjusted.Baselineadjustmentswouldensuremorerealisticestimatesofchangesincarbonuptakeorgreenhousegasemissionsbutwouldcre-ateuncertaintiesforprojectdevelopers.[5.3.2,Table5-4]77.Projectsthatreduceaccesstoland,food,fiber,fuel,andtimberresourceswithoutofferingalternativesmayresultincarbonleakageaspeoplefindneededsupplieselsewhere.Afewpilotprojectshavebeendesignedwiththeaimofreducingleakagebyexplicitlyincorporatingcomponents15LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestryEstimatedEmissionsEstimatedAccumulatedAvoidedfromAccumulatedCarbonUptakeEstimatedCarbonStocksCarbonperSpatialUnitEmissionsperSpatialUnitUptakeoverduringtheAvoidedovertheduringtheProjectLifetimeProjectLifetimeProjectLifetimeProjectLifetimeLand(MtC)(tCha–1)(MtC)(tCha–1)AreaProjectType(numberofprojects)(Mha)assumingnoleakageoutsidetheprojectboundariesForestProtection(7)f2.841–484–252ImprovedForestManagement(3)0.065.341–102ReforestationandAfforestation(7)0.110–10.426–328Agroforestry(2)0.210.5–10.826–56Multi-Componentand0.359.70.2–129CommunityForest(2)aProjectsincludedarethoseforwhichwehavesufficientdata.Soilcarbonmanagement,bioenergy,andotherprojectsarenotincludedforthisreason.b“Somelevelofimplementation”—Includedprojectshavebeenpartiallyfundedandhavebegunactivitiesonthegroundthatwillgenerateincreasesincar-bonstocksandreductionsingreenhousegasemissions.c“OtherLULUCFprojects”—Referstoselectednon-AIJprojectsandprojectswithinAnnexIcountries.dEstimatedchangesincarbonstocksgenerallyhavebeenreportedbyprojectdevelopers,donotusestandardizedmethods,andmaynotbecomparable;onlysomehavebeenindependentlyreviewed.eNon-CO2greenhousegasemissionshavenotbeenreported.fProtectinganexistingforestdoesnotnecessarilyensurealong-termcontributiontothemitigationofthegreenhouseeffectbecauseofthepotentialforleak-ageandreversibilitythroughhumanactivities,disturbances,orenvironmentalchange.Table5doesnotprovideanassessmentinrelationtotheseissues.Soundprojectdesignandmanagement,accounting,andmonitoringwouldberequiredtoaddresstheseissues.Table5:Carbonuptake/estimatedemissionsavoidedfromcarbonstocks,assumingnoleakageoutsidetheprojectboundaries,byselectedAIJPilotPhaseandotherLULUCFprojects,insomelevelofimplementation.a,b,c,d,ethatsupplytheresourceneedsoflocalcommunities(e.g.,establishingfuelwoodplantationstoreducepressuresonotherforests),andthatprovidesocioeconomicbenefitsthatcreateincentivestomaintaintheproject.Duetoleakage,theoverallconsiderationoftheclimatechangemitigationeffectsofaprojectmayrequireassessmentsbeyondtheprojectboundary,asaddressedinparagraph49.[2.3,5.3.3]78.Projectaccountingandmonitoringmethodscouldbematchedwithprojectconditionstoaddressleakageissues.Ifleakageislikelytobesmall,thenthemonitoringareacanbesetroughlyequaltotheprojectarea.Conversely,whereleakageislikelytobesignificantthemonitoringareacouldbeexpandedbeyondtheprojectarea,althoughthiswouldbemoredifficultwhentheleakageoccursacrossnationalboundaries.Twopossibleapproachescouldthenbeusedtoestimateleakage.Onewouldbetomonitorkeyindicatorsofleakage,andthesecondwouldbetousestandardriskcoef-ficientsdevelopedforprojecttypeandregion.Ineithercase,leakagecouldbequantifiedandsubsequentlychangesincar-bonstockandgreenhousegasemissionsattributedtothepro-jectcouldbereestimated.Theeffectivenessofthesetwoapproachesisuntested.[5.3.3]79.LULUCFprojectsraiseaparticularissuewithrespecttopermanence(seeparagraph40).Differentapproacheshavebeenproposedtoaddressthedurationofprojectsinrela-tiontotheirabilitytoincreasecarbonstocksanddecreasegreenhousegasemissions,interalia:(i)Theyshouldbemaintainedinperpetuitybecausetheir“reversal”atanypointintimecouldinvalidateaproject;and(ii)theyshouldbemaintaineduntiltheycounteracttheeffectofanequiva-lentamountofgreenhousegasesemittedtotheatmosphere.[5.3.4]80.SeveralapproachescouldbeusedtoestimatethechangesincarbonstocksandgreenhousegasemissionsofLULUCFprojects:(i)estimatingcarbonstocksandgreenhousegasemissionsatagivenpointintime;(ii)estimatingtheaveragechangesofcarbonstocksorgreenhousegasemissionsovertimeinaprojectarea;or(iii)allowingforonlyapartofthetotalchangesincarbonstocksorgreenhousegasemissionsforeachyearthattheprojectismaintained(e.g.,tonne-yearmethod).Theyear-to-yeardistributionofchangesincarbonstocksandgreenhousegasemissionsovertheprojectdura-tionvariesaccordingtotheaccountingmethodused.[5.4.2,Table5-9]81.LULUCFprojectsaresubjecttoavarietyofrisksbecauseoftheirexposuretonaturalandanthropogenicfactors.Someoftheserisksparticularlypertaintoland-useactivi-ties(e.g.,fires,extrememeteorologicalevents,andpestsforforests),whileothersareapplicabletogreenhousegasmitigationprojectsinbothLULUCFandenergysectorssuchaspoliticalandeconomicrisks.Riskreductioncouldbeaddressedthroughavarietyofapproachesinternaltotheproject,suchasintroductionofgoodpracticemanagementsystems,diversificationofprojectactivitiesandfundingsources,self-insurancereserves,involvementoflocalstakeholders,externalauditing,andverification.Externalapproachesforriskreductionincludestandardinsuranceservices,regionalcarbonpools,andportfoliodiversifica-tion.[5.3.5]82.Techniquesandtoolsexisttomeasurecarbonstocksinpro-jectareasrelativelypreciselydependingonthecarbonpool.However,thesamelevelofprecisionfortheclimatechangemitigationeffectsoftheprojectmaynotbeachievablebecauseofdifficultiesinestablishingbaselinesandduetoleakage.Currently,therearenoguidelinesastothelevelofprecisiontowhichpoolsshouldbemeasuredandmoni-tored.Precisionandcostofmeasuringandmonitoringarerelated.Preliminarylimiteddataonmeasuredandmoni-toredrelevantabovegroundandbelow-groundcarbonpoolstoprecisionlevelsofabout10%ofthemeanatacostofaboutUS$1–5perhectareandUS$0.10–0.50pertonofcarbonhavebeenreported.Qualifiedindependentthird-partyveri-ficationcouldplayanessentialroleinensuringunbiasedmonitoring.[5.4.1,5.4.4]8.ReportingGuidelinesfortheRelevantArticlesoftheKyotoProtocol83.UnderArticle5.2oftheKyotoProtocol,theRevised1996GuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventoriesprovidethebasisfortheaccountingandreportingofanthropogenicemissionsbysourcesandremovalsbysinksofallgreenhousegasesnotcontrolledbytheMontrealProtocol.TheseGuidelinesweredevelopedtoestimateandreportnationalgreenhousegasinventoriesundertheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC),notfortheparticularneedsoftheKyotoProtocol.However,theGuidelinesdoprovideaframeworkforaddressingtheaccountingandreportingneedsoftheKyotoProtocol.ElaborationoftheLand-UseChangeandForestrySectoroftheGuidelinesmaybeneeded,reflectingpossibledecisionsbythePartiesforaccountingandreportingLULUCFundertheKyotoProtocol,takingintoaccount,interalia:•AnydecisionsmadebyPartiesonARDunderArticle3.3andonadditionalactivitiesunderArticle3.4;[6.3.1,6.3.2]•Theneedtoensuretransparency,completeness,con-sistency,comparability,accuracy,andverifiability;[6.2.2,6.2.3,6.4.1]•ConsistenttreatmentofLand-UseChangeandForestryasotherSectors,withrespecttouncertaintymanagementandotheraspectsofgoodpractice;[6.4.1]•AnydecisionsadoptedbyPartiestoaddressotheraccountingissues(e.g.,permanence,themeaningof“humaninduced”and“directhumaninduced,”woodproducts,andprojectbasedactivities).[6.4.1]LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry169.PotentialforSustainableDevelopment84.ConsiderationwouldneedtobegiventosynergiesandtradeoffsrelatedtoLULUCFactivitiesundertheUNFCCCanditsKyotoProtocolinthecontextofsustainabledevel-opmentincludingabroadrangeofenvironmental,social,andeconomicimpacts,suchas:(i)biodiversity;(ii)thequanti-tyandqualityofforests,grazinglands,soils,fisheries,andwaterresources;(iii)theabilitytoprovidefood,fiber,fuel,andshelter;and(iv)employment,humanhealth,poverty,andequity.[2.5.1,3.6]85.Forexample,convertingnon-forestlandtoforestwilltypi-callyincreasethediversityoffloraandfauna,exceptinsit-uationswherebiologicallydiversenon-forestecosystems,suchasnativegrasslands,arereplacedbyforestsconsistingofsingleorafewspecies.Afforestationcanalsohavehigh-lyvariedimpactsongroundwatersupplies,riverflows,andwaterquality.[3.6.1]86.AsystemofcriteriaandindicatorscouldbeusedtoassessandcomparesustainabledevelopmentimpactsacrossLULUCFalternatives.Whiletherearenoagreeduponsetofcriteriaandindicators,severalsetsarebeingdevelopedforcloselyrelatedpurposes,forexampleassess-mentofcontributionstosustainabledevelopmentbytheUnitedNationsCommissiononSustainableDevelopment.[2.5.2]87.Foractivitieswithincountriesorprojectsbetweencoun-tries,ifsustainabledevelopmentcriteriavarysignificantlyacrosscountriesorregions,theremaybeincentivestolocateactivitiesandprojectsinareaswithlessstringentenvironmentalorsocioeconomiccriteria.[2.5.2]88.Severalsustainabledevelopmentprinciplesareincorporat-edinothermultilateralenvironmentalagreements,includ-ingtheUnitedNationsConventiononBiologicalDiversity,theUnitedNationsConventiontoCombatDesertification,andtheRamsarConventiononWetlands.ConsiderationmaybegiventothedevelopmentofsynergiesbetweenLULUCFactivitiesandprojectsthatcontributetothemiti-gationoradaptationtoclimatechangewiththegoalsandtheobjectivesoftheseandotherrelevantmultilateralenviron-mentalagreements.[2.5.2]89.Someofthemoreformalapproachestosustainabledevel-opmentassessmentthatcouldbeappliedattheprojectlevelare,forexample,environmentalandsocioeconomicimpactassessments.Thesemethodshavebeenappliedacrossawiderangeofcountriesandsite-specificactivitiestodateandcouldbemodifiedtobeapplicabletoLULUCFprojects.[2.5.2.2]90.SomecriticalfactorsaffectingthesustainabledevelopmentcontributionsofLULUCFactivitiesandprojectstomitigateandadapttoclimatechangeinclude:institutionalandtech-nicalcapacitytodevelopandimplementguidelinesandprocedures;extentandeffectivenessoflocalcommunityparticipationindevelopment,implementation,anddistrib-utionofbenefits;andtransferandadoptionoftechnology.[5.5,5.6]17LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry1tonne(t)1000kilogram(kg)106gram(g)1Megagram(Mg)1Megatonne(Mt)1000000t1012g1Teragram(Tg)1Gigatonne(Gt)1000000000t1015g1Petagram(Pg)1hectare(ha)10000squaremetre(m2)1squarekilometre(km2)100hectare(ha)1tonneperhectare(tha–1)100grampersquaremetre(gm–2)1tonnecarbon3.67tonnecarbondioxide(tCO2)1tonnecarbondioxide0.273tonnecarbon(tC)1tonne0.984imperialton1.10USton2204pound1hectare(ha)2.471acre1squarekilometre(km2)0.386squaremile1tonneperhectare(tha–1)892poundperacreAppendixI—ConversionUnitsArticle2.1:EachPartyincludedinAnnexIinachievingitsquantifiedemissionlimitationandreductioncommitmentsunderArticle3,inordertopromotesustainabledevelopment,shall:(a)Implementand/orfurtherelaboratepoliciesandmea-suresinaccordancewithitsnationalcircumstances,suchas:(ii)ProtectionandenhancementofsinksandreservoirsofgreenhousegasesnotcontrolledbytheMontrealProtocol,takingintoaccountitscommitmentsunderrelevantinternationalenvironmentalagree-ments;promotionofsustainableforestmanage-mentpractices,afforestationandreforestation;(iii)Promotionofsustainableformsofagricultureinlightofclimatechangeconsiderations.(b)CooperatewithothersuchPartiestoenhancetheindi-vidualandcombinedeffectivenessoftheirpoliciesandmeasuresadoptedunderthisArticle,pursuanttoArticle4,paragraph2(e)(i),oftheConvention.Tothisend,thesePartiesshalltakestepstosharetheirexperienceandexchangeinformationonsuchpoliciesandmea-sures,includingdevelopingwaysofimprovingtheircomparability,transparency,andeffectiveness.TheConferenceofthePartiesservingasthemeetingofthepartiestothisProtocolshall,atitsfirstsessionorassoonaspracticablethereafter,considerwaystofacili-tatesuchcooperation,takingintoaccountallrelevantinformation.Article3.1:“ThePartiesincludedinAnnexIshall,individuallyorjointly,ensurethattheiraggregateanthropogeniccarbondioxideequivalentemissionsofgreenhousegaseslistedinAnnexAdonotexceedtheirassignedamounts,calculatedpursuanttotheirquantifiedemissionlimitationandreductioncommitmentsinscribedinAnnexBandinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthisArticle,withaviewtoreducingtheiroverallemissionsofsuchgasesbyatleast5%below1990levelsinthecommitmentperi-od2008–2012.”Article3.3:Thenetchangesingreenhousegasemissionsbysourcesandremovalsbysinksresultingfromdirecthuman-inducedlandusechangeandforestryactivities,limitedtoafforestation,reforestationanddeforestationsince1990,mea-suredasverifiablechangesincarbonstocksineachcommitmentperiod,shallbeusedtomeetthecommitmentsunderthisArticleofeachPartyincludedinAnnexI.ThegreenhousegasemissionsbysourcesandremovalsbysinksassociatedwiththoseactivitiesshallbereportedinatransparentandverifiablemannerandreviewedinaccordancewithArticles7and8.Article3.4:PriortothefirstsessionoftheCOPservingasthemeetingofthePartiestothisProtocol,eachPartyincludedinAnnexIshallprovide,forconsiderationbytheSBSTA,datatoestablishitslevelofcarbonstocksin1990andtoenableanesti-matetobemadeofitschangesincarbonstocksinsubsequentyears.TheCOPservingasthemeetingofthePartiestothisProtocolshall,atitsfirstsessionorassoonaspracticablethere-after,decideuponmodalities,rulesandguidelinesastohow,andwhich,additionalhuman-inducedactivitiesrelatedtochangesingreenhousegasemissionsbysourcesandremovalsbysinksintheagriculturalsoilsandtheland-usechangeandforestrycategoriesshallbeaddedto,orsubtractedfrom,theassignedamountsforPartiesincludedinAnnexI,takingintoaccountuncertainties,transparencyinreporting,verifiability,themethodologicalworkoftheIPCC,theadviceprovidedbytheSBSTAinaccordancewithArticle5andthedecisionsoftheCOP.Suchadecisionshallapplyinthesecondandsubsequentcommitmentperiods.APartymaychoosetoapplysuchadeci-sionontheseadditionalhuman-inducedactivitiesforitsfirstcom-mitmentperiod,providedthattheseactivitieshavetakenplacesince1990.Article3.7:Inthefirstquantifiedemissionlimitationandreduc-tioncommitmentperiod,from2008to2012,theassignedamountforeachPartyincludedinAnnexIshallbeequaltothepercent-ageinscribedforitinAnnexBofitsaggregateanthropogeniccar-bondioxideequivalentemissionsofthegreenhousegaseslistedinAnnexAin1990,orthebaseyearorperioddeterminedinaccordancewithparagraph5above,multipliedbyfive.ThosePartiesincludedinAnnexIforwhomlandusechangeandforestryconstitutedanetsourceofgreenhousegasemissionsin1990,shallincludeintheir1990emissionsbaseyearorperiod,theaggregateanthropogeniccarbondioxideequivalentemissionsminusremovalsin1990fromlandusechangeforthepurposesofcalculatingtheirassignedamount.Article5.2:Methodologiesforestimatinganthropogenicemis-sionsbysourcesandremovalsbysinksofallgreenhousegasesnotcontrolledbytheMontrealProtocolshallbethoseacceptedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeandagreeduponbytheConferenceofthePartiesatitsthirdsession.Wheresuchmethodologiesarenotused,appropriateadjustmentsshallbeappliedaccordingtomethodologiesagreeduponbytheConferenceofthePartiesservingasthemeetingofthePartiestothisprotocolatitsfirstsession.Basedontheworkof,interalia,theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeandadviceAppendixII—RelevantPortionsofKyotoProtocolArticlesDiscussedinthisSpecialReport[ConceptsinboldarediscussedintheSPM]providedbytheSubsidiaryBodyforScienceandTechnologicalAdvice,theConferenceofthePartiesservingasthemeetingofthepartiestothisProtocolshallregularlyreviewand,asappropri-ate,revisesuchmethodologiesandadjustments,takingintoaccountanyrelevantdecisionsbytheConferenceoftheParties.AnyrevisiontomethodologiesoradjustmentsshallbeusedonlyforthepurposesofascertainingcompliancewithcommitmentsunderArticle3inrespectofanycommitmentperiodadoptedsub-sequenttothatrevision.Article6.1:ForthepurposeofmeetingitscommitmentsunderArticle3,anyPartyincludedinAnnexImaytransferto,oracquirefrom,anyothersuchPartyemissionreductionunitsresultingfromprojectsaimedatreducinganthropogenicemis-sionsbysourcesorenhancinganthropogenicremovalsbysinksofgreenhousegasesinanysectoroftheeconomy,providedthat:Article6.1(b):Anysuchprojectprovidesareductioninemis-sionsbysources,oranenhancementofremovalsbysinks,thatisadditionaltoanythatwouldotherwiseoccur.Article12.2:ThepurposeofthecleandevelopmentmechanismshallbetoassistPartiesnotincludedinAnnexIinachievingsustainabledevelopmentandincontributingtotheultimateobjectiveoftheConvention,andtoassistPartiesincludedinAnnexIinachievingcompliancewiththeirquantifiedemissionlimitationandreductioncommitmentsunderArticle3.Article12.3(a):PartiesnotincludedinAnnexIwillbenefitfromprojectactivitiesresultingincertifiedemissionsreductions.Article12.3(b):PartiesincludedinAnnexImayusethecertifiedemissionsreductionsaccruingfromsuchprojectactivitiestocon-tributetocompliancewithpartoftheirquantifiedemissionlim-itationandreductioncommitmentsunderArticle3,asdeter-minedbytheConferenceofthePartiesservingasthemeetingofthePartiestotheProtocol.Article12.5:Emissionsreductionsresultingfromeachprojectactivityshallbecertifiedbyoperationalentitiestobedesignat-edbytheCOPservingasthemeetingofthePartiestothisProtocol,onthebasisof:Article12.5(b):Real,measurable,andlong-termbenefitsrelat-edtothemitigationofclimatechange.Article12.5(c):Reductionsinemissionsthatareadditionaltoanythatwouldoccurintheabsenceofthecertifiedproject.LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry20AccuracyThedegreetowhichthemeanofasampleapproachesthetruemeanofthepopulation;lackofbias.ActivityApracticeorensembleofpracticesthattakeplaceonadelineatedareaoveragivenperiodoftime.BaselineAreferencescenarioagainstwhichachangeingreenhousegasemissionsorremovalsismeasured.BiasSystematicover-orunder-estimationofaquantity.BiosphereThatcomponentoftheEarthsystemthatcontainslifeinitsvar-iousforms,whichincludesitslivingorganismsandderivedorganicmatter(e.g.,litter,detritus,soil).CarbonFluxTransferofcarbonfromonecarbonpooltoanotherinunitsofmeasurementofmassperunitareaandtime(e.g.,tCha–1y–1).CarbonPoolAreservoir.Asystemwhichhasthecapacitytoaccumulateorreleasecarbon.Examplesofcarbonpoolsareforestbiomass,woodproducts,soils,andatmosphere.Theunitsaremass(e.g.,tC).CarbonStockTheabsolutequantityofcarbonheldwithinapoolataspecifiedtime.FluxSee“CarbonFlux.”ForestEstateAforestedlandscapeconsistingofmultiplestandsoftrees.ForestStandAcommunityoftrees,includingabovegroundandbelow-groundbiomassandsoils,sufficientlyuniforminspeciescomposition,age,arrangement,andconditiontobemanagedasaunit.HeterotrophicRespirationThereleaseofcarbondioxidefromdecompositionoforganicmatter.LandCoverTheobservedphysicalandbiologicalcoveroftheEarth’slandasvegetationorman-madefeatures.LandUseThetotalofarrangements,activities,andinputsundertakeninacertainlandcovertype(asetofhumanactions).Thesocialandeconomicpurposesforwhichlandismanaged(e.g.,grazing,tim-berextraction,conservation).PermanenceThelongevityofacarbonpoolandthestabilityofitsstocks,giventhemanagementanddisturbanceenvironmentinwhichitoccurs.PoolSee“CarbonPool.”PracticeAnactionorsetofactionsthataffecttheland,thestocksofpoolsassociatedwithitorotherwiseaffecttheexchangeofgreenhousegaseswiththeatmosphere.PrecisionTherepeatabilityofameasurement(e.g.,thestandarderrorofthesamplemean).RegenerationTherenewalofastandoftreesthrougheithernaturalmeans(seededon-siteoradjacentstandsordepositedbywind,birds,oranimals)orartificialmeans(byplantingseedlingsordirectseeding).ReservoirApool.SequestrationTheprocessofincreasingthecarboncontentofacarbonpoolotherthantheatmosphere.ShiftingAgricultureAformofforestusecommonintropicforestswhereanareaofforestiscleared,orpartiallycleared,andusedforcroppingforafewyearsuntiltheforestregenerates.Alsoknownas“slashandburnagriculture,”“movingagriculture,”or“swiddenagriculture.”SinkAnyprocessormechanismwhichremovesagreenhousegas,anaerosol,oraprecursorofagreenhousegasfromtheatmos-phere.Agivenpool(reservoir)canbeasinkforatmosphericAppendixIII—Glossary[ThesedefinitionsareprovidedsolelyforthepurposeofthisSpecialReport]carbonif,duringagiventimeinterval,morecarbonisflowingintoitthanisflowingout.SourceOppositeofsink.Acarbonpool(reservoir)canbeasourceofcarbontotheatmosphereiflesscarbonisflowingintoitthanisflowingoutofit.StandSee“ForestStand.”StockSee“CarbonStock.”SoilCarbonPoolUsedheretorefertotherelevantcarboninthesoil.Itincludesvar-iousformsofsoilorganiccarbon(humus)andinorganicsoilcarbonandcharcoal.Itexcludessoilbiomass(e.g.,roots,bulbs,etc.)aswellasthesoilfauna(animals).UptakeTheadditionofcarbontoapool.Asimilartermis“sequestration.”WoodProductsProductsderivedfromtheharvestedwoodfromaforest,includ-ingfuelwoodandlogsandtheproductsderivedfromthemsuchassawntimber,plywood,woodpulp,paper,etc.LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry22I.IPCCFIRSTASSESSMENTREPORT,1990a)CLIMATECHANGE—TheIPCCScientificAssessment.The1990reportoftheIPCCScientificAssessmentWorkingGroup(alsoinChinese,French,RussianandSpanish).b)CLIMATECHANGE—TheIPCCImpactsAssessment.The1990reportoftheIPCCImpactsAssessmentWorkingGroup(alsoinChinese,French,RussianandSpanish).c)CLIMATECHANGE—TheIPCCResponseStrategies.The1990reportoftheIPCCResponseStrategiesWorkingGroup(alsoinChinese,French,RussianandSpanish).d)OverviewandPolicymakerSummaries,1990.EmissionsScenarios(preparedbytheIPCCResponseStrategiesWorkingGroup),1990.AssessmentoftheVulnerabilityofCoastalAreastoSeaLevelRise—ACommonMethodology,1991.II.IPCCSUPPLEMENT,1992a)CLIMATECHANGE1992—TheSupplementaryReporttotheIPCCScientificAssessment.The1992reportoftheIPCCScientificAssessmentWorkingGroup.b)CLIMATECHANGE1992—TheSupplementaryReporttotheIPCCImpactsAssessment.The1992reportoftheIPCCImpactsAssessmentWorkingGroup.CLIMATECHANGE:TheIPCC1990and1992Assessments—IPCCFirstAssessmentReportOverviewandPolicymakerSummaries,and1992IPCCSupplement(alsoinChinese,French,RussianandSpanish).GlobalClimateChangeandtheRisingChallengeoftheSea.CoastalZoneManagementSubgroupoftheIPCCResponseStrategiesWorkingGroup,1992.ReportoftheIPCCCountryStudyWorkshop,1992.PreliminaryGuidelinesforAssessingImpactsofClimateChange,1992.III.IPCCSPECIALREPORT,1994CLIMATECHANGE1994—RadiativeForcingofClimateChangeandAnEvaluationoftheIPCCIS92EmissionScenarios.IV.IPCCSECONDASSESSMENTREPORT,1995a)CLIMATECHANGE1995—TheScienceofClimateChange(includingSummaryforPolicymakers).ReportofIPCCWorkingGroupI,1995.b)CLIMATECHANGE1995—Scientific-TechnicalAnalysesofImpacts,AdaptationsandMitigationofClimateChange(includingSummaryforPolicymakers).ReportofIPCCWorkingGroupII,1995.c)CLIMATECHANGE1995—TheEconomicandSocialDimensionsofClimateChange(includingSummaryforPolicymakers).ReportofIPCCWorkingGroupIII,1995.d)TheIPCCSecondAssessmentSynthesisofScientific-TechnicalInformationRelevanttoInterpretingArticle2oftheUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,1995.(TheIPCCSynthesisandthethreeSummariesforPolicymakershavebeenpublishedinasinglevolumeandarealsoavailableinArabic,Chinese,French,RussianandSpanish.)V.IPCCMETHODOLOGIESa)IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories(3volumes),1994(alsoinFrench,RussianandSpanish).b)IPCCTechnicalGuidelinesforAssessingClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptations,1995(alsoinArabic,Chinese,French,RussianandSpanish).c)Revised1996IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories(3volumes),1996.d)GoodPracticeGuidanceandUncertaintyManagementinNationalGreenhouseGasInventories,IPCCTaskForceonNationalGreenhouseGasInventories,2000.VI.IPCCTECHNICALPAPERSTECHNOLOGIES,POLICIESANDMEASURESFORMITIGATINGCLIMATECHANGE—IPCCTechnicalPaper1,1996(alsoinFrenchandSpanish).ANINTRODUCTIONTOSIMPLECLIMATEMODELSUSEDINTHEIPCCSECONDASSESSMENTREPORT—IPCCTechnicalPaper2,1997(alsoinFrenchandSpanish).STABILIZATIONOFATMOSPHERICGREENHOUSEGASES:PHYSICAL,BIOLOGICALANDSOCIO-ECONOMICIMPLICATIONS—IPCCTechnicalPaper3,1997(alsoinFrenchandSpanish).IMPLICATIONSOFPROPOSEDCO2EMISSIONSLIMITATIONS—IPCCTechnicalPaper4,1997(alsoinFrenchandSpanish).VII.IPCCSPECIALREPORTSTHEREGIONALIMPACTSOFCLIMATECHANGE:ANASSESSMENTOFVULNERABILITY(includingSummaryforPolicymakers,whichisavailableinArabic,Chinese,English,French,RussianandSpanish).ASpecialReportofIPCCWorkingGroupII,1997.LISTOFIPCCOUTPUTS(unlessotherwisestated,allIPCCoutputsareinEnglish)AVIATIONANDTHEGLOBALATMOSPHERE(includingSummaryforPolicymakers,whichisavailableinArabic,Chinese,English,French,RussianandSpanish).ASpecialReportofIPCCWorkingGroupsIandIII,1999.METHODOLOGICALANDTECHNOLOGICALISSUESINTECHNOLOGYTRANSFER(includingSummaryforPolicymakers,whichisavailableinArabic,Chinese,English,French,RussianandSpanish).ASpecialReportofIPCCWorkingGroupIII,2000.EMISSIONSSCENARIOS(includingSummaryforPolicymakers,whichisavailableinArabic,Chinese,English,French,RussianandSpanish).ASpecialReportofIPCCWorkingGroupIII,2000.LANDUSE,LAND-USECHANGE,ANDFORESTRY(includingSummaryforPolicymakers,whichisavailableinArabic,Chinese,English,French,RussianandSpanish).ASpecialReportoftheIPCC,2000.LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry24