上海原油期货和期权市场发展报告2023--上期所VIP专享VIP免费

2023
上期能源完成香港自动化交易服务(ATS)注册。原油期货作为中国首个国际化商品期货上市。国内首船期货原油卸至大连中石油国际储运有限公司指定交割库。获得新加坡金融管理局(MAS)批准,成为认可的市场经营者(RMO)。发布原油价格指数。增加中石化海南原油期货交割存放点,核定库容100万立方米,启用40万立方米。0增加大连北方油品储运有限公司作为原油期货指定交割仓库,增加大连中石油国际储运有限公司国际储备库作为原油期货指定交割仓库存放点。增加中化弘润石油储运(潍坊)有限公司作为原油期货指定交割仓库。达上市以来最高持仓量18.84万手。增加中国石化集团石油商业储备有限公司广东省湛江市临港工业园兴港大道湛江商储分公司、河北省唐山市曹妃甸工业区曹妃甸商储分公司作为原油期货指定交割仓库存放点。达上市以来最高成交量49.48万手。上期所和上期能源被纳入欧洲证券及市场管理局(ESMA)的第三国交易场所交易后透明度评估正面清单。达上市以来单月最大交割量1385.9万桶。增加大连中石油国际储运有限公司广西中石油国际储备库作为原油期货指定交割仓库存放点。推出原油期货结算价交易指令(TAS),发布日中交易参考价(MarkerPrice)。穆尔班原油被列入上海原油期货的可交割油种之中。自2021年6月1日起,穆尔班原油可入库生成标准仓单,并用于期货交割。增加大鼎油储有限公司位于浙江省舟山市定海区临城街道岙山东路油库成为原油期货存放点。同意青岛海业摩科瑞仓储有限公司位于山东省青岛市黄岛区董家口港区港润大道油库成为原油期货存放点。原油期权在上期能源正式挂牌交易。20182018.03.152018.03.262018.06.202018.11.1520192019.03.262019.10.3020202020.04.162020.04.172020.04.202020.04.242020.05.192020.06.032020.08.012020.09.072020.10.122020.12.0120212021.02.032021.02.092021.06.21发布原油期货月均结算价。同意国投(洋浦)油气储运有限公司位于海南省洋浦经济开发区化学工业园区园一路北侧的油库成为我中心原油期货存放点。巴士拉中质原油和图皮原油被列为上海原油期货的可交割油种。自2022年11月1日起,巴士拉中质原油、图皮原油可生成标准仓单,并用于期货交割。达上市以来最高成交量51.6万手。QFI可参与原油期货、期权等品种交易。境外参与者涵盖6大洲(亚洲、非洲、欧洲、北美洲、大洋洲、南美洲)近30个国家和地区。2022.05.102022.06.212022.06.242022.07.062022.09.022022.12.31待续��20222018INEcompletedtheregistrationforHongKongAutomatedTradingServices(ATS).ShanghaicrudeoilfuturesdebutedasChina’sfirstcommodityfuturesproductopentointernationalinvestors.Thefirstshipofdeliverablecrudeoilfutureswasunloadedintothedesignateddeliv-erystoragefacilityofDalianPetroChinaInternationalWarehousing&TransportationCo.,Ltd.INEwasapprovedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore(MAS)asaRecognizedMarketOperator(RMO).INElaunchedthecrudeoilpriceindex.SinopecHainancompanybecameastoragesiteofcrudeoilfuturesdelivery,withanapprovedcapacityof1,000,000cubicmetersandanactivecapacityof400,000cubicmeters.DalianNorthOilPetroleumLogisticsCo.,Ltd.becameadesignateddeliverystoragefacility,andDalianPetroChinaInternationalWarehousing&TransportationCo.,Ltd.becameastoragesiteofdesignateddeliverystoragefacility.Sinochem-HongrunOilStaging(Weifang)Co.,Ltd.wasapprovedasadesignateddeliverystoragefacilityforcrudeoilfutures.Theopeninteresthitanewhighof188,400lots.SinopecPetroleumReserveCo.,Ltd.ZhanjiangBranchatLingangIndustrialZone,XinggangAvenue,Zhanjiang,GuangdongProvince,andSinopecPetroleumReserveCo.,Ltd.CaofeidianBranchatCaofeidianIndustrialZone,Tangshan,HebeiProvincebecamethestoragepointsfordesignateddeliverystoragefacility.Thetradingvolumehitanewhighof494,800lots.SHFEandINEwereaddedtoESMA’spositivelistforpost-tradetransparencyasthird-countrytradingvenues.Themonthlydeliveryquantityhitanewhighof13.859millionbarrels.GuangxiPetroChinaInternationalReserveDepotofDalianPetroChinaInternationalWarehousing&TransportationCo.,Ltd.becameastoragesiteofdesignateddeliverystoragefacility.INElaunchedTASorderandreleasedtheMarkerPrice.Murbancrudeoilwasaddedasanotherdeliverablecrudeoil,eligibletobeloadedinfortheissuanceofstandardwarrantsandfuturesdeliveryfromJune1,2021.20182018.03.152018.03.262018.06.202018.11.1520192019.03.262019.10.3020202020.04.162020.04.172020.04.202020.04.242020.05.192020.06.032020.08.012020.09.072020.10.122020.12.01ThedepotofDadingPetroleumLogisticsCo.,Ltd.(locatedatAoshanEastRoad,LinchengSub-District,DinghaiDistrict,Zhoushan,Zhejiang)wasapprovedasaphysi-calsstoragelocationforcrudeoilfutures.ThedepotofQingdaoHaiyeMercuriaOilTerminalCo.,Ltd.(locatedatGangrunAvenue,DongjiakouPort,HuangdaoDistrict,Qingdao,Shandong)wasapprovedasaphysicalsstoragelocationforcrudeoilfutures.CrudeoiloptionswerelistedonINE.INEreleasedtheMonthlyAverageSettlementPrice(MASP)forcrudeoilfutures.ThedepotofSDICOil&GasTerminalYangpuCo.,Ltd.locatedtothenorthofParkRoadNo.1,ChemicalIndustryPark,YangpuEconomicDevelopmentZone,HainanProvince,wasapprovedasastoragefacilityofthedeliverablesforINEcrudeoilfutures.BasrahMediumandTupiwereincludedasdeliverablecrudesfortheShanghaicrudeoilfutures.AsofNovember1,2022,theBasrahMediumcrudeoilandTupicrudeoilcanbeappliedforstandardwarrantsissuanceandfuturesdelivery.ThetradingvolumeofINEcrudeoilfutureshittherecordhighof516,000lotssinceitslisting.QFIwasapprovedtotradecrudeoilfuturesandoptionsproducts.INEpostedparticipationofoverseastradersfromnearly30countriesandregionsacross6continents(Asia,Africa,Europe,NorthAmerica,Oceania,andSouthAmerica).Tobecontinued��20222022.05.102022.06.212022.06.242022.07.062022.09.022022.12.3120212021.02.032021.02.092021.06.21获奖情况2022年12月,全球投资者集团旗下《期货期权世界》(FOW)主办的2022年度亚洲资本市场奖颁奖典礼(TheAsiaCapitalMarketsAwards2022)上,上海期货交易所(简称上期所)及其子公司上海国际能源交易中心(简称上期能源,INE)荣获“年度最佳中国交易所奖”。在2022年亚洲能源风险奖(EnergyRiskAsia2022Awards)颁奖典礼上,上期能源的原油期权合约获得“年度最佳创新奖”。HonorsInDecember2022,theShanghaiFuturesExchange(“SHFE”)anditssubsidiaryShanghaiInternationalEnergyExchange(“INE”)won“ChineseExchangeoftheYear”bytheFuturesandOptionsWorld(FOW)oftheGlobalInvestorGroupattheAsiaCapitalMarketsAwards2022.INEcrudeoiloptionswon“InnovationoftheYear”attheEnergyRiskAsia2022Awards.2022年,受国际地缘政治因素和疫情的影响,以及美欧各国通胀高企并实施超预期加息,全球经济下行压力明显,国际油价波动加剧,呈现出快速大幅上升后震荡下跌的特点。期间,上海原油期货(品种代码:SC)价格总体与境外油价高度联动、有效反映区域现货市场变化,实现了成交规模的大幅增长。一、上海原油期货价格与境外市场高度联动,同时较好地反映了区域现货基本面变化特点(一)价格总体呈现先涨后跌、高位宽幅波动态势2022年,国际原油价格整体呈现先涨后跌、高位宽幅波动态势。上半年,俄乌局势持续升级,在欧美多国对俄罗斯实施多方面制裁下,俄罗斯石油出口受限。全球原油低库存叠加供给的不确定性推动国际油价快速大幅上涨并维持高位震荡。上海原油期货突破820元/桶,创上市5年来新高。下半年,俄罗斯石油供应从冲击中逐步恢复,全球经济高通胀、美联储大幅加息、美元升值、美债长短期利率倒挂推动大类资产价格下跌,油价震荡下行。截至12月30日,上海原油期货主力合约收于562.8元/桶(约合80.81美元/桶),较2021年底上涨12.79%;ICEBrent原油期货收于85.91美元/桶,CMEWTI原油期货收于80.26美元/桶,较2021年底分别上涨8.31%和4.25%。图1上海原油期货运行概况数据来源:上海国际能源交易中心2023年上海原油期货和期权市场发展报告02040608010012001002003004005006007008009002018/3/262018/6/262018/9/262018/12/262019/3/262019/6/262019/9/262019/12/262020/3/262020/6/262020/9/262020/12/262021/3/262021/6/262021/9/262021/12/262022/3/262022/6/262022/9/262022/12/26元/桶成交量持仓量主力合约收盘价(二)境内外价差反映现货基本面差异,期货仓单量反映市场自身特点上海原油期货价格代表了中国乃至亚洲这一全球原油重要消费地和集散地价格。从长期看,上海原油期货价格走势与境外原油价格总体趋势保持一致,但从短期看,也能更快、更有效地反映出区域市场供需关系的变化。与境外主要原油期、现货价格相比,人民币计价和结算的上海原油期货价格中包含了不同油种间价差、油轮运费、人民币兑美元汇率等多重因素。2022年俄乌冲突加剧的情况下,亚洲的原油进口需求产生结构性改变,同时,在运费大幅上涨、美元大幅升值等因素的共同作用下,上海原油期货价格与境外原油期货价差波动加剧。图2上海原油期货与境外原油期货价差数据来源:上海国际能源交易中心、路透图3境内外价差与运费数据来源:上海国际能源交易中心、普氏01002003004005006007008009002021年2022年-100-50050100150元/桶元/桶SC首行-BRENT首行SC首行Brent首行(¥)WTI首行(¥)00.511.522.533.54-120-100-80-60-40-20020406080美元/桶元/桶SC二行-PlattsDubai/Oman(¥)运费(美元/桶)1月4日1月21日2月9日3月5日3月24日4月13日4月30日5月24日6月10日6月30日7月19日8月5日8月24日9月10日10月8日10月27日11月15日12月2日12月21日1月10日1月27日2月22日3月11日3月30日4月20日5月12日5月31日6月20日7月7日7月26日8月12日8月31日9月20日10月14日11月2日11月21日12月8日12月27日2021年2022年1月4日1月22日2月18日3月10日3月30日4月20日5月13日6月2日6月23日7月13日8月2日8月20日9月9日10月8日10月28日11月17日12月7日12月27日1月17日2月11日3月3日3月23日4月14日5月9日5月27日6月17日7月7日7月27日8月16日9月5日9月26日10月21日11月10日11月30日12月20日供需基本面对大宗商品价格具有主导性作用。欧美多国对俄罗斯石油实施制裁以来,国际原油贸易格局发生了深远变化。俄罗斯与欧洲的原油贸易量大幅萎缩,原本出口欧洲的俄罗斯原油更多流向亚洲,而中东原油则流向欧洲弥补供应缺口。根据Kpler数据显示,2022年俄罗斯对亚洲的原油出口量为233.6万桶/日,较2021年的143.9万桶每日上涨62.3%。俄罗斯出口至远东地区的原油主要为ESPO,是中东原油的重要替代。2022年4月以来,ESPO价格较中东原油深度贴水。ESPO与中东原油的价差变化直接影响了亚洲市场对不同油种的进口需求,并推动原油贸易流向产生变化。上海原油期货价格间接地反映了这一变化。具体看,2022年4-6月,ESPO对中东原油贴水20-30美元/桶,亚洲对于ESPO进口量大幅上升,替代了对中东原油的部分需求。同期,中国境内疫情快速扩散,各地加强对社会活动限制,境内成品油消费显著下降。受上述因素影响,以中东原油为主要交割油种的上海原油期货出库需求大幅减弱,拖累近月合约价格,使得上海原油期货较中东原油理论到岸价的贴水逐步扩大。境内外原油市场价差波动对境内外套利带来新的交易机会。随着境内外价差的持续走低,上海原油期货指定交割库弘润仓库的85万桶原油注销出库,并反输至青岛港复运出境。7-8月,随着亚洲对ESPO进口量的增加,ESPO价格逐步回升,对中东原油价格贴水逐步收窄至5美元/桶左右。同期,中东原油进口需求明显回升,上海原油期货仓单陆续注销出库达411.3万桶,库存降至197万桶历史低位,带动上海原油期货价格快速走强并对中东原油理论到岸价小幅升水。9-12月,ESPO与中东原油价差持续收窄至2美元/桶左右,在上海原油期货价格较中东原油理论到岸价升水情况下,819.6万桶原油入库生成仓单。截至2022年底,上海原油期货库存上升至1016.6万桶的年内高位。图4境内外价差与人民币汇率数据来源:上海国际能源交易中心、路透6.00006.20006.40006.60006.80007.00007.20007.4000-90.00-40.0010.0060.00110.002018-03-262018-05-192018-07-122018-09-042018-10-282018-12-212019-02-132019-04-082019-06-012019-07-252019-09-172019-11-102020-01-032020-02-262020-04-202020-06-132020-08-062020-09-292020-11-222021-01-152021-03-102021-05-032021-06-262021-08-192021-10-122021-12-052022-01-282022-03-232022-05-162022-07-092022-09-012022-10-25元/桶SC-Brent价差美元兑人民币汇率(右轴)图5境内外价差与期货库存数据来源:上海国际能源交易中心、路透二、上海原油期货、期权实现联动发展(一)原油期货市场规模持续扩大,市场结构进一步优化随着国际油价波动加剧,境内外原油期货市场纷纷上调保证金比例。为防范市场风险,2022年3月9日,上海原油期货保证金上调至15%。在此情况下,市场避险和投资需求依然推动了原油期货市场成交规模快速上升。2022年,原油期货总成交5358.08万手,成交金额34.91万亿元。日均成交量22.14万手,较2021年增长25.60%;日均持仓量6.93万手(合6930万桶,约为中国日消费量的5倍左右),较2021年下降8.09%。交割方面,截至2022年底,原油期货指定交割仓库总启用库容达6841.5万桶,全年共交割2407.1万桶(含期转现)。交割出库的原油以报关进口为主,也有部分原油转运出境韩国、缅甸等国家和地区。此外,为满足现货市场变化和发展需要,上海国际能源交易中心于2022年10月引入了伊拉克巴士拉中质原油和巴西图皮原油作为可交割油种。0.005,000,000.0010,000,000.0015,000,000.0020,000,000.0025,000,000.0030,000,000.0035,000,000.0040,000,000.0045,000,000.0050,000,000.00-100.00-50.000.0050.00100.00150.002018-03-262019-03-262020-03-262021-03-262022-03-26桶元/桶原油期货库存(右轴)SC-Brent价差图6境内外原油期货成交量对比1数据来源:上海国际能源交易中心、路透图7境内外原油期货持仓量对比2数据来源:上海国际能源交易中心、路透1图中境内外市场日均成交量均按上海原油期货交易日对应的成交量进行统计。2图中境内外市场日均持仓量均按上海原油期货交易日对应的持仓量进行统计。2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年SC日均成交140,260141,985171,135175,495221,408Brent日均成交865,658810,347839,422890,284864,916WTI日均成交1,186,9921,157,2251,083,534981,963825,463-200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,000手19,80828,796118,90975,40969,3122,355,8922,371,6712,543,0402,415,2631,932,8162,336,7492,075,8672,124,2662,261,3611,668,919-500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,000手2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年SC日均持仓Brent日均持仓WTI日均持仓市场参与者结构方面,一般法人和特殊法人等机构参与者日均成交占比约5成,日均持仓占比超过7成。机构交易者的交易、持仓和套期保值比例位居境内已上市期货品种前列。境外交易者日均成交占全市场日均成交量约1/4,日均持仓占比超过3成。2022年9月,在当前特定品种的对外开放路径基础上,原油期货也开始允许QFII和RQFII直接参与交易,对外开放路径、境外交易者类型更加多元化。目前,跨国石油公司、贸易商、投资银行、基金和资产管理公司中的标杆性企业均参与了上海原油期货交易。境外交易者覆盖了六大洲近30个国家和地区。境外特殊参与者共3家,备案的境外中介机构达78家。(二)原油期权市场影响初步显现自2021年上市以来,原油期权成交持仓规模快速增长,期权定价合理,与标的市场联动紧密,产业客户参与积极,市场影响正在显现。2022年,原油期权累计成交量660.08万手,累计成交额635.91亿元,日均成交量2.73万手,日均成交额2.63亿元,日均持仓量2.18万手。日均成交量、日均成交额和日均持仓量同比分别上涨132.17%、232.17%和56.64%,呈现快速上升趋势。原油期权逐步得到国际市场的认可。在全球大宗商品行业权威媒体Risk.Net组织的2022年亚洲能源风险奖(EnergyRiskAsia2022Awards)颁奖典礼上,原油期权合约获得“年度最佳创新奖”的殊荣。价格方面,2022年原油期权定价合理,主力系列隐含波动率基本处于40%~80%的区间,走势总体与标的期货的历史波动率一致,较好地反映出预期波动情况。数据来源:上海国际能源交易中心图8原油期货合约交割量050100150200250300350400450500万桶到期交割(万桶)EFP(万桶)原油期权和标的期货的成交量呈现良好联动。当标的期货成交量大幅变化时,期权的成交量也相应变化,期权、期货共同管理价格风险的特征明显。数据来源:上海国际能源交易中心图92022年原油期权隐含波动率和历史波动率情况数据来源:上海国际能源交易中心图102022年原油期权和标的期货成交量情况01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900001000000100000200000300000400000500000600000手手期货成交量(左轴)期权成交量(右轴)0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2022-01-042022-03-042022-05-042022-07-042022-09-042022-11-04隐含波动率30日历史波动率三、原油期货、期权助力产业健康发展近年来,上海期货交易所深入推进原油期货、期权市场培育和服务实体经济工作,助力产业健康发展。期货方面,为了给企业提供更好的价格参考,上海国际能源交易中心在2022年5月10日推出了原油期货月均结算价。此外,为拓展原油期货价格运用场景,还推出了“助实体、稳发展”项目,引导鼓励企业在原油、成品油和天然气等现货贸易中参考上海原油期货计价。期权方面,自2021年启动期权“走进企业服务实体”试点实践活动以来,支持产业企业利用场内期权管理风险,助力企业稳健运行。在支持原油产业客户方面,2022年15家企业参与活动,利用原油期权管理风险,覆盖300万桶左右原油现货。2021年上期所还启动了“期货稳价订单”试点项目,为企业“保供稳价”。能化品种方面,2022年共落地11笔“期货稳价订单”业务,保障现货数量27900吨,涉及期权权利金271万元,参与的企业5家,均为原油行业内有较大影响力的企业。原油期权服务实体经济的功能正在显现。历经5年发展,上海原油期货在市场规模日益上升的同时,规则制度和交易机制日趋完善,境内外交易者数量和类型日益丰富,反映中国市场供需更加直接和高效。为了更好满足市场交易需求,上海国际能源交易中心正加快推进天然气期货上市工作和成品油系列产品研发,建立完善产品体系和生态圈,切实服务实体经济风险管理需求。境内外研究成果Yang等(2020)使用协整检验、线性和非线性因果关系检验研究2018年3月至2019年2月期间INE原油期货的定价效率。文章发现,INE原油期货价格是Oman原油现货价格的格兰杰原因,而WTI和Brent现货价格是INE原油期货价格的格兰杰原因。文章从而得出结论:尽管INE原油期货市场的定价效率仍然低于WTI和Brent现货市场,但其在亚太地区已经变得有效。参考文献:Yang,C.,Lv,F.,Fang,L.,&Shang,X.(2020).ThepricingefficiencyofcrudeoilfuturesintheShanghaiInternationalExchange.FinanceResearchLetters,36,101329‒.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.101329Yang和Zhou(2020)使用5分钟频度日内数据研究INE原油期货上市后首3个月内,其与WTI、Brent和Oman原油期货之间的关系。通过VECM-MGARCH模型,文章发现,原油期货之间存在协整关系,并且在受到负面价格冲击时,INE原油期货与国际原油期货市场之间的非对称相关性更强。文章还指出,INE原油期货与主要原油期货(WTI和Brent)之间的联系比Oman原油期货更强,尤其是在其夜盘交易时段。参考文献:Yang,J.,&Zhou,Y.(2020).ReturnandvolatilitytransmissionbetweenChina’sandinternationalcrudeoilfuturesmarkets:Afirstlook.TheJournalofFuturesMarkets,40(6),860‒884.https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22103Zhang和Ma(2020)采用2018年3月至10月期间的15分钟频度日内数据,使用Hasbrouck(1995)信息份额和Garbade-Silber模型研究INE原油期货相较于Brent原油期货的价格发现情况,并且使用Diebold和Yilmaz(2012)模型研究INE、WTI和Brent原油期货之间的风险转移和溢出情况。文章发现,INE原油期货贡献了48%的信息份额,而Brent原油期货贡献了52%,并且INE市场是三个原油市场中波动性溢出的最大传递者。参考文献:Zhang,Y.J.,&Ma,S.J.(2021).Exploringthedynamicpricediscovery,risktransferandspilloveramongINE,WTIandBrentcrudeoilfuturesmarkets:Evidencefromthehigh‐frequencydata.InternationalJournalofFinance&Economics,26(2),2414-2435.Yang等(2021)从风险溢出角度出发,通过数个GARCH模型获得风险值(VaR)的连接网络。文章发现,2018年3月至2020年4月期间,国际原油期货市场高度互联互通,并且INE原油期货一直是Brent和WTI原油期货的净风险接受者,尤其是在Covid-19爆发之后。参考文献:Yang,Y.,Ma,Y.-R.,Hu,M.,Zhang,D.,&Ji,Q.(2021).ExtremeriskspilloverbetweenChineseandglobalcrudeoilfutures.FinanceResearchLetters,40,101743‒101743.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101743Li,Huang和Li(2021)研究了INE原油期货与Oman原油和OPEC参考的一揽子原油现货之间的价格相关性,以及INE原油期货的对冲效果。采用GO-GARCH模型分析2018年3月至2019年6月期间的每日价格,研究发现,相较于WTI和Brent原油期货,INE原油期货与现货市场之间的价格相关性更高,且INE对现货的对冲有效性也更高。参考文献:LI,J.,HUANG,L.,&LI,P.(2021).AreChinesecrudeoilfuturesgoodhedgingtools?FinanceResearchLetters,38,101514‒.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101514Lv,Yang和Fang(2020)研究INE原油期货与Brent和WTI原油期货相比,是否可以更好地帮助投资者对冲中国石油化工相关股票的风险。采用2018年至2019年数据以及DCC、DECO和BlockDECO模型,研究发现,INE原油期货在对冲风险和分散投资组合方面比WTI原油期货表现更好,但与Brent原油期货相比则不然。参考文献:Lv,F.,Yang,C.,&Fang,L.(2020).DothecrudeoilfuturesoftheShanghaiInterna-tionalEnergyExchangeimproveassetallocationofChinesepetrochemical-relatedstocks?InternationalReviewofFinancialAnalysis,71,101537‒.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ir-fa.2020.101537Yi,Yang和Li(2021)重点研究了2018年3月至2020年6月期间宏观经济不确定性对INE原油期货的解释和预测能力。作者使用CARCH-MIDAS模型解决数据频率差异的问题,发现在主要原油消费国⸺美国、中国和日本,以及主要原油出口国⸺英国、加拿大和俄罗斯的地缘政治风险、经济政策不确定性和传染病大流行等因素中,英国和日本的因素在预测INE原油期货波动中发挥的作用更大。参考文献:Yi,A.,Yang,M.,&Li,Y.(2021).MacroeconomicUncertaintyandCrudeOilFuturesVolatility‒EvidencefromChinaCrudeOilFuturesMarket.FrontiersinEnvironmentalScience,9.https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.636903Yu,Yang和Webb用量化方法检验了2018年3月-2022年3月期间INE原油期货对19种亚洲原油现货价格的价格发现情况。研究表示,INE原油期货对可交割和一些非可交割油种都具有价格发现能力;INE原油期货对沙特的阿拉伯中质原油、科威特的科威特原油和伊朗的富鲁赞原油三种非可交割油种也具有类似于可交割油种的价格发现功能。参考文献:Yu,Z.,Yang,J.,&Webb,R.(2022).PriceDiscoveryinChina'sCrudeOilfuturesMarkets:AnEmergingAsianBenchmark?JournalofFuturesMarkets.https://onlineli-brary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fut.22384免责声明:上述引用内容仅代表相应作者个人观点,不代表上海国际能源交易中心观点,仅供市场参考,上海国际能源交易中心不对上述引用内容所涉及的版权问题负法律责任。上海原油期货年度之“最”表1.价格表现开盘价最高价最低价收盘价494.8823.6491.0562.86.631.893.4744.32-93.6-14.30最高最低平均最高最低平均30日历史波动率(%)期现价差(元/桶)表2.交易情况5358.0834.9122.141442.5651.6032.586.938.96累计成交(万手)累计成交额(万亿)日均成交(万手)日均成交额(亿)最高成交(万手)日盘占比(%)日均持仓(万手)最高持仓(万手)交易持仓表3.交割2407.1157.9SC2212456.6巴士拉轻油1147.5弘润11.3累计交割(万桶,不含期转现)累计交割额(亿元)交割量最大合约单月最大交割量(万桶)交割量最大油种最大油种交割量(万桶)交割量最大油库期转现(万桶)970.5最大油库交割量(万桶)2023DevelopmentReportofShanghaiCrudeOilFuturesandOptionsMarketOver2022,theglobaleconomicdownturnbecamemorepronouncedunderthewhammyofinternationalgeopoliticalcrisis,thelingeringCovid-19pandemic,andtheU.S.andEurope’saggressiveinterestratehikeinresponsetoacceleratinginflations.Thisaddedvolatilitytotheglobaloilmarket,withoilpricessurgingsharplyfollowedbyadowntrend.Againstthiscontext,Shanghaicrudeoilfutures(producecode:SC)showedsignificantgrowthintradingvolumeandmaintainedahighpricecorrelationwithoverseasoilprices,offeringanaccuratepictureofthesupply-demanddynamicsoftheregionalspotmarket.1.HighpricecorrelationbetweenShanghaicrudeoilfuturesandover-seasmarketstobetterreflectthesupply-demanddynamicsoftheregionalspotmarket(1)SharppricesurgebeforedowntrendandwidefluctuationsatahighlevelOver2022,theglobalcrudeoilpricepeakedbeforeittookadownturn,andfluctuatedwithinawiderangeatahighlevel.Inthefirsthalfoftheyear,oilpricessoaredduetolowinventoryandhighuncertaintiesinoilsupplyastheUSAandEuropeancountriessanc-tionedRussianoilexportamidtheRussia-Ukrainecrisis.Shanghaicrudeoilfuturesexceed-edRMB820/barrelandhitarecordhighsinceitslistingfiveyearsago.Inthesecondhalfof2022,oilpricesspiraleddownasRussiagraduallyrestoreitsoilexportandthepriceofmajorassetclassesaredroppingduetotheplaguinghighinflation,Fed’sinterestratehikes,strongUSD,andinvertedUSDyieldcurve.AsofDecember30,theactivecontractsoftheShanghaicrudeoilfuturesclosedatRMB562.8/barrel(US$80.81/barrel),up12.79%from2021.ICEBrentrose8.31%year-on-yeartoUS$85.91/barrel,andCMEWTI4.25%toUS$80.26/barrel.0100200300400500600700800900¥/bblLotsTradingvolumeOpeninterestClosingpriceofactivecontractsSource:INEFigure1:ShanghaiCrudeOilFutures,2018-2022020406080100120(2)Domestic-overseaspricespreadindicatingsupply-demanddynamicsofthespotmarketandfutureswarrantsindicatingthemarketcharacteristicsSCfuturespricerepresentsthecrudeoilpriceinChinaandevenAsia,animportantcrudeoilconsumptionanddistributionhub.ThetrendsofSCfuturesandoverseasmarketsaresimilarinthelong-run,buttheshort-rundiscrepanciescanbetterandmoreeffectivelyreflectedthemovementsinthesupplyanddemandoftheregionalmarket.Comparedwiththepricesofthemajorcrudeoilfuturesandspotsinoverseasmarkets,thepriceoftheRMB-denominatedandsettledSCfuturesisinfluencedbymultiplefactors,includingthepricespreadofdifferentcrudes,freightrates,andRMB/USDexchangerate.In2022,thespreadbetweenSCfuturesandoverseascrudeoilfuturesbecamemorevolatileamidtheworseningRussia-Ukrainecrisis,thestructuralchangeinAsia’scrudeoilimportdemand,thesoaringfreightrates,andtheUSdollarappreciation.Figure2:SpreadbetweenSCFuturesandOverseasCrudeOilFuturesSource:INEandReutersFigure3:PriceSpreadv.FreightRatesSource:INEandPlatts0100200300400500600700800900-50050100150¥/bbl¥/bblSC1stLine‒Brent1stLineSC1stLineBrent1stLine(¥)WTI1stLine(¥)00.511.522.533.54-120-100-80-60-40-20020406080US$/bbl¥/bblSC2ndLine‒PlattsDubai/Oman(¥)Freightrates(US$/barrel)202120222021-01-042021-01-212021-02-092021-03-052021-03-242021-04-132021-04-302021-05-242021-06-102021-06-302021-07-192021-08-052021-08-242021-09-102021-10-082021-10-272021-11-152021-12-022021-12-212022-01-102022-01-272022-02-222022-03-112022-03-302022-04-202022-05-122022-05-312022-06-202022-07-072022-07-262022-08-122022-08-312022-09-202022-10-142022-11-022022-11-212022-12-082022-12-27202120222021-01-042021-01-222021-02-182021-03-092021-03-292021-04-202021-05-132021-06-022021-06-232021-07-132021-08-022021-08-202021-09-092021-10-082021-10-282021-11-272021-12-072021-12-272022-01-172022-02-112022-03-032022-03-222022-04-142022-05-092022-05-272022-06-172022-07-072022-07-272022-08-162022-09-052022-09-262022-10-212022-11-102022-11-302022-12-20Thesupply-demandfundamentalsdeterminethecommodityprices.TheinternationalcrudeoiltradehasseenprofoundchangessincetheEuropeanUnionandtheU.S.an-nouncedsanctionsonRussiancrude.RussiancrudeexporttoEuropeshrankdramaticallyandAsiancountriesimportedmoreRussiancrude,whiletheMiddleEasthasbeenexport-ingmorecrudeoiltoEuropetofillthegap.KplerstatisticsshowthatRussiaexported2.336millionbarrelsperdaytoAsiain2022,up62.3%from1.439millionbarrelsperdayin2021.ESPO,animportantsubstituteofMiddleEasterncrude,istheprimarycrudethatRussiaexportstotheFarEast.SinceApril2022,ESPOhasbeensoldatalargediscountcom-paredwiththeMiddleEastcrude.ThespreadbetweenESPOandMiddleEasterncrudehasadirectimpactontheimportdemandsoftheAsianmarketsfordifferentcrudes,thuschangingthecrudeoiltradingdirection.ThischangehasbeenindirectlyreflectedbytheSCfuturesprice.Specifically,fromApriltoJune2022,asESPOwassoldat$20to$30discountperbarrelcomparedwiththecrudeimportedfromtheMiddleEast,AsianimportsofESPOincreasedconsiderably,partiallyreplacingthemiddleeasterncrude.Duringthisperiod,China’sdo-mesticconsumptionofrefinedoilplungedassocialdistancingruleswereimplementedtocurbCovid-19spread.Thesefactorsweakenedthedemandforload-outofmiddleeast-erncrudeasthedeliverableforSCcontracts,draggingdownthepricesofnear-monthcontractsandwideningthediscountofSCcontractscomparedwiththetheoreticalCIFpriceoftheMiddleEasterncrude.Thespreadfluctuationbetweenthedomesticandoverseascrudeoilmarketscreatednewopportunitiesforarbitrage.Asthespreadwid-ened,warrantsof850,000barrelsofcrudeoilstoredinHongrun,adesignateddeliverystoragefacilityforcrudeoil,werede-registered,andtheunderlyingoilloadedoutandtransportedtoQingdaoPortforre-export.InJulyandAugust,ESPOpricesreboundedandthespreadbetweentheESPOandthecrudeimportedfromtheMiddleEastnarrowedtoUS$5perbarrelasAsianimportofESPOclimbed.China’sdemandsforthecrudeimportedfromtheMiddleEastalsorecoverednotably.Asatotalof4.113millionbarrelsofcrudeoilwarrantswerederegis-teredandloadedout,theinventoryfelltoahistoricallowof1.97millionbarrels,drivingarapiduptickinthepriceofSCfuturesandmakingitslightlyabovetheCIFpriceoftheMiddleEasterncrude.Figure4:PriceSpreadv.RMB-USDExchangeRateSource:INEandReuters6.00006.20006.40006.60006.80007.00007.20007.4000-90.00-40.0010.0060.00110.002018-03-262018-05-192018-07-122018-09-042018-10-282018-12-212019-02-132019-04-082019-06-012019-07-252019-09-172019-11-102020-01-032020-02-262020-04-202020-06-132020-08-062020-09-292020-11-222021-01-152021-03-102021-05-032021-06-262021-08-192021-10-122021-12-052022-01-282022-03-232022-05-162022-07-092022-09-012022-10-25¥/bblSC‒BrentspreadRMB-USDexchangerate(right)2.DevelopmentofShanghaicrudeoilfuturesandoptionsmarketsinsynergy(1)FurtherexpansionofthecrudeoilfuturesmarketwithimprovingmarketstructureCrudeoilfuturesmarketsathomeandabroadhavemarkeduptheirmarginrequire-mentsinthefaceofanincreasinglyvolatileoilprice.OnMarch9,2022,themarginrequirementforSCcontractswasraisedto15%topreventmarketrisks.Despitethemarginrise,demandforhedgingandinvestmenthaspushedupthetradingvolumeofcrudeoilfutures.In2022,thecumulativetradingvolumeofSCfuturesstoodat53,580,800lotsandthecumulativeturnoveramounttoRMB34.91trillion.Theaveragedailytradingvolumeposteda25.6%increasefrom2021to221,400lots,andtheaveragedailyopeninterestan8.09%fallto693,000lots(equivalentto69.3millionbarrels,fivetimesoftheChina’sdailyconsumption).Intermsofdelivery,asoftheendof2022,thetotalactivecapacityofthedesignatedter-minalsforcrudeoilfuturesreached68.415millionbarrels,and24.071millionbarrels(in-cludingEFP)weredeliveredovertheyear.Mostofthecrudeoildeliveredwasimportedthroughcustomsdeclaration,andaportionwasre-shippedtoSouthKorea,Myanmar,andothercountriesandregions.Toaddressthechangesanddevelopmentneedsofthespotmarket,theShanghaiInternationalEnergyExchange(“INE”)admittedtheIraqiBasrahMediumandBrazilianTupicrudeoilasthedeliverablesforSCfuturesinOctober2022.Figure5:PriceSpreadandInventorySource:INEandReuters0.005,000,000.0010,000,000.0015,000,000.0020,000,000.0025,000,000.0030,000,000.0035,000,000.0040,000,000.0045,000,000.0050,000,000.00-100.00-50.000.0050.00100.00150.002018-03-262019-03-262020-03-262021-03-262022-03-26bbl¥/bblCrudeoilfuturesinventory(right)SC‒BrentspreadFromSeptembertoDecember,thespreadbetweenESPOandthecrudeimportedfromtheMiddleEastfurthernarrowedto$2perbarrel.AstheSCfuturesmaintainedapremi-umovertheCIFoftheMiddleEasterncrude,8.196millionbarrelswereloadedinandregisteredforwarrantcreation.Bytheyear-endof2022,theinventoryforSCfutureshitayearhighof10.166millionbarrels.Figure6:DailyTradingVolumeofDomestic&OverseasCrudeOilFuturesSource:INEandReuters20182019202020212022SC140,260141,985171,135175,495221,408Brent865,658810,347839,422890,284864,916WTI1,186,9921,157,2251,083,534981,963825,463-200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,000LotsFigure7:DailyOpenInterestofDomestic&OverseasCrudeOilFuturesSource:INEandReuters19,80828,796118,90975,40969,3122,355,8922,371,6712,543,0402,415,2631,932,8162,336,7492,075,8672,124,2662,261,3611,668,919-500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,00020182019202020212022SCBrentWTILotsSource:INEandReutersFigure8:DeliveryofSCFuturesContracts05010015020025030035040045050010,000barrelsDeliveryatmaturity(10,000barrels)EFP(10,000barrels)Intermsoftheparticipantstructure,institutionalparticipantsincludinggeneralcorpo-rateclientsandspecialcorporateclientshaveaccountedforabout50%oftheaveragedailytradingvolumeandover70%oftheaveragedailyopeninterest.SCfutureshastakentheleadintradingvolume,openinterest,andhedgingpercentagebyinstitutionaltradersamongthefuturesproductslistedinthedomesticmarket.Overseastradershaveaccountedforaboutaquarteroftheaveragedailytradingvolumeandover30%oftheaveragedailyopeninterest.InSeptember2022,SCfuturesbecameaccessibletoQFIIandRQFIIwhichwereapprovedasdirecttraders.ThisarrangementfurtherdiversifiesthechannelsofopeninguptheChina’sfuturesmarketandthetypesofoverseasinvestors.Bynow,almostallthebenchmarkmultinationaloilproducers,traders,investmentbanks,fundsandassetmanagementcompanieshavetradedintheSCfuturesmarket.TheSChaswelcomedoverseasparticipantsfromnearly30countriesandregionsacross6continents,aswellas3overseasspecialparticipants,and78overseasintermediaries.(2)PreliminaryachievementsofthecrudeoiloptionsmarketSinceitslaunchin2021,Shanghaicrudeoiloptionshaveseenrapidgrowthinboththetradingvolumeandtheopeninterest.Featuringfairpricing,closeconnectionwiththeunderlyingmarket,andactiveparticipationofindustryclients,themarketisgrowinginfluential.In2022,thecumulativetradingvolumeofcrudeoiloptionsstoodat6,600,800lotswithatotalturnoverofRMB63.591billion.Themarketgrewrapidlywiththeaveragedailytradingvolumeup132.17%to27,300lots,theaveragedailyturnoverup232.17%toRMB263million,andtheaveragedailyopeninterestup56.64%to21,800lots.Shanghaicrudeoiloptionshaveprogressivelywonrecognitionintheglobalmarkets.Itwashon-oredwith“InnovationoftheYear”byRisk.Net,anauthoritativemediaoutletofglobalcommodities,attheEnergyRiskAsia2022Awards.Intermsofpricing,crudeoiloptionswerefairlypricedthroughout2022.Theimpliedvola-tilityoftheactivecontractsstayedbetween40%and80%,withthetrendinalignmentwiththehistoricalvolatilityoftheunderlyingfuturescontracts,offeringareliablerefer-encefortheexpectedvolatility.Source:INEFigure10:TradingVolumesofCrudeOilOptionsandFuturesover202201000020000300004000050000600007000080000900001000000100000200000300000400000500000600000lotslotsFuturestradingVolume(left)OptionstradingVolume(right)Source:INEFigure9:ImpliedVolatilityandHistoricalVolatilityofCrudeOilOptionsover20220%20%40%60%80%100%120%2022-01-042022-03-042022-05-042022-07-042022-09-042022-11-04Impliedvolatility30-dayhistoricalvolatilityThecrudeoiloptionsandtheirunderlyingfuturesarehighlycorrelatedintradingvolume.Thetradingvolumeoftheunderlyingfuturesfluctuateswiththatoftheunderly-ingfuturescontracts,indicatingthesynergyofcrudeoilfuturesandoptionsinpriceriskmanagement.3、CrudeoilfuturesandoptionsinsupportofthehealthydevelopmentoftheindustryOvertheyears,theShanghaiFuturesExchange(“SHFE”)hasbeenpromotingthedevel-opmentofcrudeoilfuturesandoptionsmarketsandofferingsupportfortherealecono-my,tobolsterthehealthydevelopmentoftheindustry.Toprovidecompanieswithmorereliablepricereferences,theINEintroducedtheMonth-lyAverageSettlementPrice(MASP)forShanghaicrudeoilfuturesonMay10,2022.Italsolaunchedaspecialprogramcalled“SupportingtheEnterprisesandStabilizingtheIndustrialDevelopment”,toexpandtheapplicationscenariosofthefuturespricesandencourageenterprisestousethepriceoftheSCasareferenceduringthespottradingincrudeoil,refinedoils,andnaturalgas.In2021,apilotprogramof“IntroducingOptionstoEnterprisesandServingtheRealEconomy”waslaunchedtohelpindustrycompaniesmanageriskswithin-exchangeoptionstradingandoperateinarobustmanner.Undertheprogram,15oilrelatedcompa-niesproperlymanagedtherisksrelatingto3millionbarrelsofphysicalsthroughoptionstrading.In2021,SHFE’spilotoptionpromotionprogramof“StablePriceandOrdersforSCFutures”helpedassureoilsupplyandpricestabilityforoilenterprises.In2022,11transactionswereexecutedunderthe“StablePriceandOrdersforSCFutures”program,inwhich5influentialcrudeoilcompaniestraded27,900metrictonsofphysi-cals,withthepremiumamountingtoRMB2.71million.Crudeoiloptionshaveplayedaprominentroleinservingtherealeconomy.Overthepastfiveyears,Shanghaicrudeoilfutureshaswitnessedagrowingmarketandprogressivelyimprovingrulesandtradingmechanism.Withtheincreasingparticipationofdifferenttypesofdomesticandoverseastraders,themarkethasservedasadirectandeffectiveindicatorofthesupply-demanddynamicsofShanghaicrudeoilmarket.Tobetteraddressthetradingneedsofthemarket,theINEissteppinguptheeffortsindevel-opingandlaunchingnaturalgasfuturesandrefinedoilproducts,withaviewtobuildingawell-structuredproductlineandecosystemandsupportingtherealeconomyinriskmanagement.Yangetal.(2020)investigatedthepricingefficiencyofINEcrudeoilfuturesfortheperiodfromMarch2018toFebruary2019withcointegrationandGrangercausalitytests.TheyfoundthattheINEfuturespricewastheGrangercauseoftheOmanspotprice,andtheWTIandBrentspotpriceswereinturntheGrangercauseoftheINEfuturesprice.ThepaperthusconcludesthatalthoughtheINEcrudeoilfuturesmarketstillshowslowerpricingefficiencythantheWTIandBrentspotmarkets,itisefficientintheAsia-Pacificregion.Reference:Yang,C.,Lv,F.,Fang,L.,&Shang,X.(2020).ThepricingefficiencyofcrudeoilfuturesintheShanghaiInternationalExchange.FinanceResearchLetters,36,101329-.https://-doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.101329YangandZhou(2020)examinedtherelationshipbetweenINEcrudeoilfutures(SC)andWTI,Brent,andOmancrudeoilfutureswithinthefirstthreemonthsofthelistingofSCusingintradaydataat5-minuteintervals.WiththehelpoftheVECM-MGARCHmodel,thepaperfoundacointegratingrelationshipbetweenthesefuturesproducts,andthatfollow-inganegativepriceshock,theasymmetricvolatilitiesandcorrelationsbetweenSCandinternationalcrudeoilfuturesmarketsbecamestronger.ThepaperalsofoundthatSCshowedstrongerlinkagewithWTIandBrentfuturesthanOmanfuturesdid,especiallyinthenighttradinghours.Reference:Yang,J.,&Zhou,Y.(2020).ReturnandvolatilitytransmissionbetweenChina’sandinternationalcrudeoilfuturesmarkets:Afirstlook.theJournalofFuturesMarkets,40(6),860-884.https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22103ZhangandMa(2020)builttheHasbrouck(1995)informationsharemodelandGarbade-Sil-bermodelwiththe15-minuteintervalintradaydatafromMarchtoOctober2018tostudythepricediscoveryfunctionofINEcrudeoilfuturescomparedwithBrentcrudefutures,andusedtheDiebold-YilmazmodeltomeasuretherisktransferandspillovereffectamongINE,WTI,andBrentfuturesmarkets.TheresultsshowthattheINEcrudeoilfuturescontrib-uted48%oftheinformationshare,comparedwiththe52%shareofBrentcrudefutures,andthattheINEmarketwasthelargesttransmitterofvolatilityspilloveramongthethreemarkets.Reference:Zhang,Y.J.,&Ma,S.J.(2021).Exploringthedynamicpricediscovery,risktransferandspilloveramongINE,WTIandBrentcrudeoilfuturesmarkets:Evidencefromthehigh‐frequencydata.InternationalJournalofFinance&Economics,26(2),2414-2435.Yangetal.(2021)builtseveralGARCHmodelstoobtainthevalueatrisk(VaR)connected-nessnetworks.Theyfoundthat,betweenMarch2018andApril2020,theinternationaloilmarketswerehighlyconnected,withtheINEcrudeoilfuturespersistentlyactedasanetreceiveroftherisksfromBrentandWTI,especiallyfollowingtheCovid-19outbreak.Reference:Yang,Y.,Ma,Y.-R.,Hu,M.,Zhang,D.,&Ji,Q.(2021).ExtremeriskspilloverbetweenChineseandglobalcrudeoilfutures.FinanceResearchLetters,40,101743-101743.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101743DomesticandOverseasStudiesonINECrudeOilFuturesLi,Huang,andLi(2021)investigatedthepricecorrelationsbetweentheINEcrudeoilfuturesandthespotpricesofOmanandtheOPECBasket,aswellasthehedgingeffective-nessoftheINEproduct.TheyanalyzedtheintradaypricesfromMarch2018toJune2019withaGO-GARCHmodelandfoundthatcomparedwithWTIandBrentcrudefutures,INEcrudeoilfuturesshowedhigherpricecorrelationwiththespotmarketsandwasamoreeffectivehedgingtool.Reference:Li,J.,Huang,L.,&Li,P.(2021).AreChinesecrudeoilfuturesgoodhedgingtools?FinanceResearchLetters,38,101514-.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101514Lv,Yang,andFang(2020)lookedatwhetherinvestorscanbetterhedgeagainsttherisksofChinesepetrochemicalstockswiththeINEcrudeoilfuturescomparedwiththeBrentandWTIcrudefutures.ByconstructingtheDCC,DECO,andBlockDECOmodelsbasedonthedatafrom2018to2019,theyfoundthattheINEfuturesprovidedsuperiorhedgingandportfoliodiversificationresultsversusWTI,butinferiorresultsversusBrent.Reference:Lv,F.,Yang,C.,&Fang,L.(2020).DothecrudeoilfuturesoftheShanghaiInterna-tionalEnergyExchangeimproveassetallocationofChinesepetrochemical-relatedstocks?InternationalReviewofFinancialAnalysis,71,101537-.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ir-fa.2020.101537Yi,Yang,andLi(2021)investigatedwhetherthemacroeconomicuncertaintyfactorscanexplainandforecasttheINEcrudeoilfuturesmarket’svolatilityfortheperiodfromMarch2018toJune2020.TheauthorsusedtheGARCH-MIDASmodeltoaddressthedifferencesindatafrequencyandfoundthatamongthemajoroilconsumers(theUnitedStates,China,andJapan)andthemajoroilexporters(theUnitedKingdom,Canada,andRussia),thegeopoliticalrisk,economicpolicyuncertainty,andpandemicssituationintheUnitedKing-domandJapanhadgreaterpredictivepowerforthevolatilityoftheINEcrudefutures.Reference:Yi,A.,Yang,M.,&Li,Y.(2021).MacroeconomicUncertaintyandCrudeOilFuturesVolatility-EvidencefromChinaCrudeOilFuturesMarket.FrontiersinEnvironmentalScience,9.https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.636903Yu,Yang,andWebbexaminedthepricediscoveryperformanceofINEcrudeoilfuturesforthespotpricesof19typesofAsiancrudeoilfromMarch2018toMarch2022usingaquanti-tativeapproach.ThestudyshowedevidenceofthepricediscoveryfunctionofINEcrudeoilfuturesfordeliverableandsomenon-deliverablecrudes.INEcrudeoilfuturesperformspricediscoveryfunctionforSaudiArabianMediumcrude,Kuwaitcrude,andIran’sForozancrudeinthewaysimilartootherdeliverablecrudes.Reference:Yu,Z.,Yang,J.,&Webb,R.(2022).PriceDiscoveryinChina'sCrudeOilfuturesMarkets:AnEmergingAsianBenchmark?JournalofFuturesMarkets.https://onlineli-brary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fut.22384Disclaimer:Thepaperscitedaboverepresentthepersonalviewsoftheirauthorsonly.TheyaresolelyprovidedforreferenceuseanddonotrepresenttheviewsofINE.INEisnotlegallyliableforanycopyrightissuesthatmayarisefromthesepapers.2022FiguresofShanghaiCrudeOilFuturesTable1:PricePerformanceOpeningPriceHighestPriceLowestPriceClosingPrice494.8823.6491.0562.86.631.893.4744.32-93.65-14.30HighestLowestAverageHighestLowestAverage30-DayVolatility(%)Basis(¥/barrel)Table2:Trading5,358.0834.9122.141,442.5651.6032.586.938.96Cumulativetradingvolume(10,000lots)Cumulativeturnover(RMBtrillion)Averagedailyvolume(10,000lots)Averagedailyturnover(RMB100million)Highestdailyvolume(10,000lots)Proportionoftradingvolumeinthedaytimetradingsession(%)Averagedailyopeninterest(10,000lots)Highestdailyopeninterest(10,000lots)TradingOpenInterestTable3:Delivery2,407.1157.9SC2212456.6BasrahLight1,147.5Hongrun11.3Cumulativedeliveryquantity(10,000bbl,includingEFPs)Cumulativedeliveryamount(RMB100million)ContractwiththehighestdeliveryquantityHighestmonthlydeliveryquantity(10,000bbl)MostdeliveredCrudeStreamDeliveryvolumeofthemostdeliveredcrudestream(10,000bbl)StoragefacilitywiththehighestdeliveryquantityHighestdeliveryquantitybystoragefacility(10,000bbl)EFPvolume(10,000bbl)970.5上海国际能源交易中心优秀分析师优秀原油产业服务团队奖方正中期期货研究院能源化工研究中心国投安信期货能源团队光大期货能源研究团队中银期货能源产业服务组中泰期货济南分公司原油产业团队优秀原油分析师奖2022年原油期货交易量排名前二十会员名单申万期货董超海通期货杨安方正中期隋晓影光大期货钟美燕国泰君安黄柳楠恒力期货贺涵建信期货李捷中信期货桂晨曦华泰期货潘翔东证期货安紫薇中银期货陆茗浙商期货有限公司申银万国期货有限公司新湖期货股份有限公司徽商期货有限公司方正中期期货有限公司光大期货有限公司东吴期货有限公司中信建投期货有限公司中辉期货有限公司华安期货有限公司华泰期货有限公司中信期货有限公司东证期货有限公司中泰期货股份有限公司国信期货有限责任公司国富期货有限公司国泰君安有限公司银河期货有限公司海通期货股份有限公司华闻期货有限公司2022年原油期货交易量排名前二十境外中介机构名单亮点国际期货有限公司StraitsFinancialServicesPte.Ltd.J.P.MorganSecuritiesplcGoldmanSachsInternational群益期货(香港)有限公司OrientFuturesInternational(Singapore)Pte.Ltd.横华国际期货有限公司亮点国际金融(新加坡)有限公司SocieteGeneraleInternationalLimitedKGISecurities(Singapore)Pte.Ltd.直达国际金融服务有限公司ABNAMROClearingBankN.V.中一期货有限公司中国新永安期货有限公司ADMISSingaporePte.Limited元大期货(香港)有限公司NanhuaSingaporePte.Ltd.DBSBankLtd.PhillipNovaPte.Ltd.MacquarieFutures(Singapore)Pte.Ltd.OutstandingAnalystsOutstandingIndustryServiceTeamAwardInvestment&ConsultingDepartment,FounderCIFCOFuturesEnergyandChemicalEngineeringResearchGroupEnergyDivision,SDICEssenceFuturesEnergyResearchTeam,EverbrightFuturesEnergyIndustryServiceTeam,BOCIFuturesCrudeOilIndustryTeam,ZhongtaiFuturesJinanBranchOutstandingAnalystAwardTop20MembersbyCrudeOilFuturesTradingVolumein2022ShenwanFutures,DongChaoHaitongFutures,YangAnFounderCIFCOFutures,SuiXiaoyingEverbrightFutures,ZhongMeiyanGuotaiJunanFutures,HuangLiunanHengliFutures,HeHanCCBFutures,LiJieCITICFutures,GuiChenxiHuataiFutures,PanXiangOrientFutures,AnZiweiBOCIFutures,LuMingHuataiFuturesCo.,Ltd.CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.OrientFuturesCo.,Ltd.ZhongtaiFuturesCo.,Ltd.GuoxinFuturesCo.,Ltd.GuofuFuturesCo.,Ltd.GuotaiJunanCo.,Ltd.GalaxyFuturesCo.,Ltd.HaitongFuturesCo.,Ltd.HuawenFuturesCo.,Ltd.ZheshangFuturesCo.,Ltd.Shenyin&WanguoFuturesCo.,Ltd.XinhuFuturesCo.,Ltd.HuishangFuturesCo.,Ltd.FounderCIFCOFuturesCo.,Ltd.EverbrightFuturesCo.,Ltd.SoochowFuturesCo.,Ltd.ChinaSecuritiesFuturesCo.,Ltd.ZhonghuiFuturesCo.,Ltd.HuaanFuturesCo.,Ltd.Top20OverseasIntermediariesbyCrudeOilFuturesTradingVolumein2022BrightPointInternationalFuturesLimitedStraitsFinancialServicesPte.Ltd.J.P.MorganSecuritiesplcGoldmanSachsInternationalCapitalCSCFutures(HongKong)LimitedOrientFuturesInternational(Singapore)Pte.Ltd.HGNHInternationalFuturesCo.,Ltd.BrightPointInternationalFinancial(SG)Pte.Ltd.SocieteGeneraleInternationalLtd.KGISecurities(Singapore)Pte.Ltd.DAInternationalFinancialServiceLimitedABNAMROClearingBankN.V.ZhongyiFuturesLtd.ChinaXinYonganFuturesCo.,Ltd.ADMISSingaporePte.LimitedYuantaFutures(HongKong)Co.,Ltd.NanhuaSingaporePte.Ltd.DBSBankLtd.PhillipNovaPte.Ltd.MacquarieFutures(Singapore)Pte.Limited

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