请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%000300.SH857352.SL投资要点➢➢➢➢➢2一、组件是光伏系统中的重要环节，需求随光伏装机高增............................................................41.光伏组件是太阳能发电系统中的重要组成部分............................................................................................42.组件投资强度小、建设周期短，产能属性弱...............................................................................................53.光伏行业快速发展，组件需求也随之保持高速增长....................................................................................6二、品牌、渠道、成本管控能力为三大核心壁垒..........................................................................71.组件使用期长，客户重视品牌背书..............................................................................................................72.海外市场需求爆发，提前布局可享有渠道溢价............................................................................................83.受原材料价格波动影响大，成本管控能力要求高........................................................................................9三、大尺寸、叠片、双面助力降本增效，一体化持续推进..........................................................111.大尺寸硅片可有效摊薄单瓦非硅成本，硅片大尺寸趋势不可逆................................................................112.高效封装技术百花齐放，助力组件降本增效.............................................................................................113.平抑产业链价格波动，一体化降本持续....................................................................................................13四、投资建议.............................................................................................................................15五、风险提示.............................................................................................................................16...............................................................................................................................................4...................................................................................................................................................4........................................................................................................................................5......................................................................................6..........................................................................................................................6.........................................................................................................7................................................................................................................................8...........................................................................................................8........................................................................................................................................9................................................................................................9.............................................................................................................................................9......................................................................................................................10...........................................................................................................................................10................................................................................................................................10.........................................................................................................................10....................................................................................................................................11............................................................................................................................12....................................................................................................................................12................................................................................................................................133................................................................................................................................13.........................................................................................................14........................................................................................14.................................................................................................................................645600.511.522.533.544.55硅料硅片电池片组件0510152025硅料硅片电池片组件7100%100%100%96%93%86%82%82%79%79%0%0%0%4%7%14%18%18%21%21%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%有融资性价值无融资性价值&没听说88696117181239322461116144172268369508730010020030040050060070080020192020202120222023E2024E2025E国外光伏新增全球光伏新增0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45印度美国欧洲澳洲90%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%20182019202020212022天合光能隆基绿能晶澳科技晶科能源0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%61.2%9.0%8.4%7.1%5.2%2.7%2.6%3.8%电池片铝边框EVA玻璃背板焊带接线盒其他1005010015020025030035000.511.522.53050001000015000200002500030000350002020/1/232021/1/232022/1/232023/1/23051015202530354045503.2mm镀膜2.0mm镀膜110%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20192020202120222023E2024E2025E2027E2030E156.75mm158.75mm160-166mm182mm210mm120%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E2027E2030E全片半片叠瓦0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E单面组件双面组件13140%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%隆基绿能晶澳科技天合光能晶科能源硅片电池0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%20182019202020212022晶澳科技天合光能隆基绿能晶科能源东方日升协鑫集成151617