PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10438AReviewofHumanDevelopmentandEnvironmentalOutcomesDiegoAmbaszAnshumanGuptaHarryAnthonyPatrinosEducationGlobalPracticeMay2023PublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedProducedbytheResearchSupportTeamAbstractThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10438Asclimatechangeanditsimpactonthephysicalenviron-mentbecomeincreasinglyevident,itsrelationshipwithhumandevelopmentoutcomesisbecomingakeyareaofresearch.Whilenumerousresearchershavestudiedthewaysinwhichtheimmediateenvironmentaffectshumancapital,literatureontheimpactofhumancapitalontheenviron-mentremainsscarce.Despitetheheightenedinterestinunderstandingthelinkagesbetweenhumandevelopmentoutcomesandenvironmentalfactors,moststudiesofthisrelationshiparetheoretical,correlational,orobservational,thuslackingcausality.Thispapersurveystheliteratureandexploreshowevidencecanbeestablishedforpoliciesfocus-ingonhumandevelopmentandenvironmentaloutcomes.Thepaperpresentsaconceptualframeworkincorporatingdirectandindirectpathways–includingcognitiveandnoncognitivefactorsthroughwhichimprovededucationcanleadtobetterenvironmentalbehaviors.Ofthe31stud-iesreviewed,amajority(27studies)presentobservationalfindings,whileonlyafew(fourstudies,or13percent)useaquasi-experimentaldesigntoestablishcausality.Thefewcausalstudiessuggestthatitispossibletochangeattitudesbutmoredifficulttochangeenvironmentalbehaviors.Thereviewraisesthekeyquestionofwhetherpoliciesaimedatimprovingclimatechangeawarenessthrougheducationcaneffectivelyproducelong-lastingchangesinpro-environ-mentalbehaviors.Muchmoreworkisneededtoadvanceunderstandingofhowhumancapitalpolicycanhelpmit-igateorpromoteadaptationtoclimatechange.ThispaperisaproductoftheEducationGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedathpatrinos@worldbank.org.AReviewofHumanDevelopmentandEnvironmentalOutcomesDiegoAmbaszAnshumanGuptaHarryAnthonyPatrinos1WorldBankWorldBankWorldBankJEL:Q54;I25Keywords:Education;humancapital;climatechange1PaperpreparedundertheAdvancingtheHumanDevelopmentAgendawithintheEU’sGreenDeal(ID:P175948).ThankstoAna-MariaBoromisa,KarlaJ.Mcevoy,andMariaUstinovaforcomments.AllerrorsareourownandtheviewsexpressedherearenottobeattributedtotheWorldBankGroup.21.IntroductionEnvironmentalconditions,suchasthosepertainingtonaturalresourcesandclimate,areintrinsicallylinkedtohumandevelopmentoutcomesinnumerousways.Forexample,exposuretopoorairandwaterqualityamongpopulationsislinkedtobirthdefectsandcognitivedeficitsinchildren(Fergusonetal.2013).Similarly,workersinminingindustriesareknowntohavelowerlifeexpectancyduetoexposuretoheavymetalsandtoxicenvironmentalconditions,andchildrenlivinginmorepollutedenvironmentsdisplayhigherlevelsofchronicabsenteeism(MacNaughtonetal.2017;BangayandBlum2010).Ontheotherhand,humandevelopmentoutcomessuchasimprovededucationalattainmentinturnmaybelinkedtobetterenvironmentaloutcomesthroughpathwayssuchasincreasedawarenessaboutenvironmentalissuesandimprovedaccesstoresourcestoaddressthem.Istherealinkbetweenhumandevelopmentoutcomesandenvironmentaloutcomes?Ifso,aretherewaystoestablishacausalrelationship?Whatistheimpactofschoolingonclimateactions,includingattitudes,behaviors,andoutcomes?Weanswerthesequestionsbyfirstsurveyingtheliteraturethatinvestigatestheimpactofenvironmentalchangesonhumandevelopmentoutcomes.Then,withmorefocus,welookattheimpactofhumandevelopmentonenvironmentaloutcomes,whilealsoassessingthestrengthofsuchassociations.Despitetheheightenedinterestinunderstandingthelinkagesbetweenhumandevelopmentoutcomesandenvironmentalfactors,moststudiesofthisrelationshipareonlytheoretical,correlational,orobservational,thuslackingcausality.Welookatcausalestimatesoftheimpactofeducationalinterventionsondifferentenvironmentaloutcomes.Weexplorehowevidencecanbeestablishedforpoliciesfocusingonhumandevelopmentandenvironmentaloutcomes.Wefindthattherearewaystocausallyestimatetheimpactofeducationonclimateoutcomesandproposeapproaches.Thebroaderrelationshipsbetweeneconomicdevelopmentandenvironmentaloutcomeshavebeenatopicofenquiryforresearchersforalongtime.TheseminalpaperbyGrossmanandKrueger(1995)wasamongthefirsttostudythisrelationshipusingaglobaldataset.Usingpaneldata(1977-1990)onfourenvironmentalindicators(urbanairpollution,thestateoftheoxygenregimeinriverbasins,fecalcontaminationofriverbasins,andcontaminationofriverbasinsbyheavymetals),theauthorsfindthatenvironmentaloutcomesinitiallyworsenwithincreasingpercapitaGDPbuteventuallywitnessaU-shapedrecoveryasincomesincreaseaboveacriticalthreshold.Theauthorssuggestthatascountriesprospereconomically,theircitizensdemandbetterenvironmentalconditions,thusimprovingenvironmentalstandards.ThestudyvalidatedthepresenceoftheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurveandwasfollowedbyfurtherresearchtoreplicateandextendtheinitialfindings(seeGoklany1999;Panayotou1995).Alatercross-sectionalstudybyJhaandMurthy(2003)alsohighlightsasimilarrelationship.Theauthorsconstructacompositeenvironmentaldegradationindex(EDI)for174countriesusingsixindicatorsofenvironmentaldegradationorpollutionandidentifyitsrelationshipwiththeHumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI).ThestudysuggestsaninvertedN-curvethatindicatesthatcountrieswithhighlevelsofdevelopmentandlowervaluesofHDIrankcontributemoretoenvironmentaldegradationwhilemid-rankingcountrieshavetheleastlevelsofenvironmentaldegradation.Similarly,thepaperbyDoganandInglesi-Lotz(2020)considershowchangesineconomic3structurefromdevelopingtodevelopedcountriesintheEuropeanUnion(EU)relatetocarbonemissions.Theyfindthatcarbonemissionsincreaseinitiallyascountriesmovefromagriculturetomanufacturing,butarisingshareoftheservicesectorandincreasingpercapitaincomesleadstoreducedemissions,thusconfirmingtheU-shapedcurve.AmorerecentpaperbyMrabetetal.(2021)usespaneldatafor16MiddleEasternandNorthAfricancountries(period1990–2016)toexaminetherelationshipbetweenEcologicalFootprintandHDI.TheyfindthatimprovingHDIwillharmtheenvironmentintheearlystagesofdevelopmentbyincreasingtheEcologicalFootprint,butasthecountrydevelops,furtherincreasesinhumandevelopmentwillresultinlowerlevelsofenvironmentaldegradation.Thesefindingsthussuggestthathumandevelopmentandpoliticalstabilitycanhaveapositiveeffectontheenvironmentthroughbettereducationandhealthcaresystems.However,validatingthesemechanismsandestablishingacausalrelationshipstillrequiresfurtherresearch.Theremainderofthepaperproceedsasfollows.Thenextsectionpresentsasynthesisofliteraturetoestablishthatclimatechangecanindeedaffecthumandevelopmentoutcomes.Italsopresentsanoverviewoftheadaptationandmitigationmeasuresthatcanreducethenegativeimpactofclimatechange.Whilesomeinterventions,suchasriskassessmentofbuildingsanddisastermanagement,canaidadaptationandreduceclimatevulnerabilities,others,suchascurriculumredesignandpromotingresearchinuniversities,canenablemitigation.Thelastsectionthenshiftsfocustotheliteratureonthelinkagesbetweeneducationandclimatechangeandpresentsapossibleframeworktostudytheselinkages.Thelastpartofthatsectionalsopresentscompulsoryschoolinglawsasoneinstrumentthatcanbeusedtoestablishcausallinkages.2.ImpactofClimateonHumanDevelopmentTheinfluenceofourphysicalenvironmentandclimateonhumandevelopmentoutcomessuchaseducationalattainmentandchildmortalityhasbeenstudiedbyresearchersindifferentcontextsandregionsoftheworld.Whileweatherchangescandirectlyaffecthumandevelopmentoutcomesbydisruptingaccesstoinfrastructuresuchasschoolsorhospitals,availabilityofstaff(teachers,doctorsandnurses,etc.),andincreasingincidenceofdiseases,researchincountriesacrosstheglobehasshownthatchangesinweatherpatternscanalsoaffectcognitiveperformance,rateofskillformation,workbehavior,workforcemigration,andlabormarketparticipation(seeDeuster2021;Das2020;Li2020;ZivinandNeidell2014).Parketal.(2021)usedatafor58countriesand12,000USschooldistrictswithdetailedweatherandacademiccalendarinformationtoshowthattherateoflearningdecreaseswithanincreaseinthenumberofhotschooldays.Thesenegativeeffectsarefurthercompoundedinpoorercountriesandcanbeuptothreetimeshigherforstudentsfromlow-incomegroups.Zivinetal.(2018)intheirstudyfurthershowthateventhoughthenegativeeffectoflong-termtemperaturechangesmaybereducedduetocompensatorybehavior,short-runchangescanleadtostatisticallysignificantdecreasesincognitiveperformance(alsoseeZivinetal.2020).AsimilarstudybyCook(2021)usingthedifference-in-differencemethodologytoassesstheimpactoffloodingoneducationoutcomesandcognitiveperformanceamongschoolchildreninCanadafindsthatexposuretofloodscanreduceperformancebyupto7percentofastandard4deviation.However,theeffectsarelesspronouncedforstudentslivinginhigh-riseapartmentbuildingsandnewerconstructionareasthatarelesspronetoflooding,thussuggestingthatadaptivemeasurescanplayaroleinreducingtheimpactofclimatechangeonhumandevelopmentoutcomes.Similarly,researchonhealthoutcomesalsoindicatesthatnegativeenvironmentalconditionscancreatelong-termnegativeimpactonhealthindicatorsofcitizens.ResearchingthelinkbetweentemperatureinversioneventsandairpollutioninSweden,Jansetal.(2018)showthatsucheventscanincreaseairpollution(PM10levels)by25percentandchildren’srespiratoryhealthproblemsby5.5percentwithlow-incomechildrenbeingtheworseaffected.Arceoetal.(2016)havepreviouslyshownthattheeffectofairpollutiononinfantmortalitycanbehigherindevelopingcountriesascomparedtodevelopedcountries.Studyingtheimpactofincreasingoceanicacidityonearly-childhoodmortalityanddevelopment,ArmandandTaveras(2020)havegathereddataonmorethan1.5millionbirthstakingplaceoverthelast50yearsin36developingcountries.Thestudyfindsthatincoastalareas,a0.01unitincreaseinaciditycanleadto2additionalneonataldeathsper1,000livebirths.EbiandHess(2020)furthersuggestthatincreasedexposuretoclimatehazardshasincreasedrisksofdeathsandinjuriesfromextremeevents,infectiousdiseases,andfoodandwaterinsecurityinEurope.Theyproposesimultaneousgovernmentpoliciesandinvestmentsinsocialandhealthprotectionsaimedatreducinginequitiesandinvestmentsinclimatechangemitigationandadaptationtoreducethesehealthrisks.2.1.AdaptationandMitigationMeasurestoReducetheImpactofClimateChangeAshighlightedabove,humandevelopmentoutcomesarefrequentlyaffectedbyenvironmentalconditionswhileinterventionstargetinghumandevelopmentcaninturnaffectenvironmentaloutcomes.Numerousstudieshaveadvancedtherolethathumandevelopmentinterventionscanplayinadaptingtoandmitigatingclimatechange.BangayandBlum(2010)arguethatarobusteducationsystemcanequipandempowerpeopletodealwithclimateuncertainties.Theyalsopresentageneralizedsequentialframeworktoidentifyeducationresponsesrangingfromprovisionofadequateeducationalinfrastructureintheshortterm(adaptation)toequippinglearnerswiththerequisiteskills,knowledge,andattributestodealwithfuturechallengesinthelongterm.Adaptationmeasurescanincludeavarietyofinterventionsthatimproveresilienceordirecthumanbehaviortowardsadaptationstrategies.Instancesofsuchshort-terminterventionsincludedisaster-proofinginfrastructure,adaptingtoseasonalitychanges,andbuildingdisasterpreparednesscapacitytorespondtoclimateemergencies.AccordingtotheWorldBank’sWorldDevelopmentReport(2010),tacklingclimatechangewillrequiretheexpansionofsomemeasuressuchasinsuranceandsocialprotectionaswellasinnovationintheimplementationofotherssuchasurbanandinfrastructureplanning.DFID’sreportonEducation,ClimateandEnvironment(Blum2015)furtheremphasizestherolethateducationandeducationalinfrastructurecanplayinbuildingtheresilienceofcommunities(particularlypoorandvulnerablepopulationgroups)toclimateandenvironmentalchange,andthepotentialopportunitiesprovidedbylowcarbontechnologyandenvironmentallysensitiveconstructionanddesigninthatprocess.5Otheradaptationmeasuresincludeintroducinginnovativepoliciesthatcanchangehumanbehaviorsthroughnudgesandincreasingawareness.Li(2020),forexample,highlightstherolethatjobflexibilitycanplayinshapingpeople’sadaptationtoextremeweather.Thestudyfindsthatwhentheirresidentialareasareaffectedbyextremeweather,workerswiththeflexibilitytoworkathomereducedworktimeattheirworkplacebyasmuchas45minutesonaverage,primarilybecausetheywantedtoavoidexposuretoadverseclimateduringtravel.Withoutthisflexibility,workersmadenochangestotheirworkhours,thussuggestingthatjobflexibilityimprovesworkers’welfarebyprovidingthechoiceoflocationadaptation.TheEuropeanCommission(2019)toohaspushedforpoliciesthatharnessexistingcomplementaritiesbetweenefficiency,innovation,humancapital,jobquality,fairness,andimprovedworkingconditionstoimproveproductivitywhileensuringenvironmentalsustainability.Itidentifieschildcareandlong-termcare,educationandtraining,skills,mobility,andhousingaskeypolicyinterventionareaswhichcouldenhancesustainabilityandspeeduptheconvergenceofMemberStates’socio-economicperformance.Mitigationmeasuresontheotherhandmayincludeupdatingcurriculumandassessments,teachereducationreforms,orientationtowardsnew‘lowcarbon’technologiesandsustainablefutures,whichcanhaveapositiveimpactonenvironmentaloutcomesinthelongerterm.Forexample,researchbyYaoetal.(2020)hasshownthatadvancedhumancapital,intheformofadditionaltertiaryschooling,isassociatedwithareductioninCO2emissionsbetween50and65percent.Thefindingsofthepapersuggestthatthesocialbenefitsofinvestinginadvancedhumancapitalofferapromisingavenueforaddressingclimatechangewithoutimpedingeconomicgrowth.Anotherpossibleavenuetopromotemitigatingmeasuresisthroughincreasedinvestmentsinresearchanddevelopmentactivities.RecentIEAestimatessuggestthatachievingglobalenergyandclimatechangeambitionsconsistentwitha50percentreductionofenergy-relatedCO2emissionsin2050(withrespectto2007levels)wouldrequireatwotofivefoldincreaseinpublicR&Dspending(Dechezleprêtreetal.2016).OECDtoo,initsreporttitled‘PromotingTechnologicalInnovationtoAddressClimateChange’(2011)highlightstheneedtoformulateflexibleyetpredictable,long-termpoliciesthatcanincentivizeinnovationsinabroadportfolioofcomplementaryfields,andnotjustenergy,"climate-friendly"or'environmental'R&D.ItalsoemphasizesenablinginternationalcollaborationbetweenemergingcountriesandsmallOECDeconomiestoenableeasiertransferofknowledgeandtechnologies.Itisthusquiteevidentthattheeducationsectorcanplayanincreasinglyimportantroleinadaptingtoaswellasmitigatingclimatechange.Whilestudieshaveexplorednumerouspossibleinterventionssuchasbuildingresilientinfrastructureandimprovingeducationalattainment,considerableresearchisstillrequiredonthepathwaysthroughwhichtheseinterventionscanimpactclimatechange.Thefollowingsectionpresentsanoverviewofcurrentliteratureaddressingthisaspect.3.ImpactofSchoolingonClimateWenowturntothequestionoftheimpactofschoolingonclimateactions,includingattitudes,behaviors,andoutcomes.Whilenumerousadaptationandmitigationmeasureshavebeenproposedbypolicymakersandthinktanks,empiricalevidenceonthecausaleffectofeducationonclimate6literacyandpro-environmentalbehaviorsremainsscarce.Moreover,mostoftheresearchthatdoesexististheoretical,correlational,orobservational(see,forexample,TorglerandGarcia-Valinas2007;McCrightandDunlap2011;Kahanetal.2012;Leeetal.2015;O’Neilletal.2020)orsmall-scaleexperimentsthatfocusedontheimpactofspeciallydesignededucationaboutthecausesandconsequencesofglobalwarmingonpublicunderstandingofclimatechangerisksofanonrepresentativesample(RanneyandClark2016;Rumoreetal.2016).Thestudieshaveusedavarietyofoutcomes,includingwastegenerationandrecycling,purchaseoforganicfoods,watersavingbehavior,demandforeco-labeling,attitudestowardsustainability,environmentalconcern,energyuse,willingnesstopaypremiumforgreenelectricity,andcontributionsandactionsregardingtheenvironmentandstudiedtheirrelationshiptoeducationalattainment(Meyer2015).Mostoftheseobservationalstudiesfindpositiveeffects(forexample,Bellowsetal.2008;BlendandvanRavenswaay1999;Brecardetal.2009;CallanandThomas2006;DeSilvaandPownall2014;Duggaletal.1991;EkandSoderholm2008;FerraraandMissios2005;GilgandBarr2006;Klinebergetal.1998;KriströmandKiran2014;Monieretal;ReschovskyandStone1994;Rowlandsetal.2003;Smith1995;Teisletal.2008;TorglerandGarcía-Valiñas2007;Xiaoetal.2013).Afewfindnegativeeffects(Grafton2014;Johnstonetal.2001;Poortingaetal.2004;ThompsonandKidwell1998)ornoeffects(Berketal.1993;MillockandNauges2014;Wessellsetal.1999).Table1presentsasummaryofthekeyfindingsfromthesestudies,whileanoverviewofallthestudiesincludedhasbeenprovidedasAppendixA.AbroadersystematicreviewbyArdoin,BowersandGaillard(2020)ontheresearchonenvironmentaleducation'scontributionstoconservationandenvironmentalqualityoutcomesresultedintheanalysisof105studies.Thestudydocumentedstronglypositiveenvironmentaleducationoutcomesoverall.However,theirqualitycheckslookedforstudiesthatcoulddocumentimpact,butitisnotclearifthestudieswererandomizedorcausal.Table1:Summaryoffindingsofstudiesonrelationshipbetweeneducationandpro-environmentalbehaviorsAspectsofenvironmentalbehaviorNatureofrelationshipwitheducationalfactorsStudiesincludedResource(waterandenergy)conservationStudiesfindaweakorinsignificantrelationshipwithtotalyearsofeducationorhighestlevelofeducationBerketal.1993EkandSoderholm2008GilgandBarr2006Grafton2014KriströmandKiran2014Poortingaetal.2004Rowlandsetal.2003WastereductionandrecyclingStudiesfoundapositiverelationshipwiththelevelofeducationachievedCallanandThomas2006Duggaletal.1991FerraraandMissios2005ReschovskyandStone1994SustainablefoodpurchasesMoststudiesfindapositiverelationshipwithtotalyearsofeducation;somestudiesfindanegativerelationshipwithlevelofeducationBellowsetal.2008BlendandvanRavenswaay1999Brecardetal.2009Johnstonetal.2001MillockandNauges2014Monieretal.2009ThompsonandKidwell1998Wessellsetal.19997AspectsofenvironmentalbehaviorNatureofrelationshipwitheducationalfactorsStudiesincludedZepedaandLi2007EnvironmentalawarenessandconcernStudiesfindapositiverelationshipwithtotalyearsofeducationaswellaslevelofeducationDeSilvaandPownall2014Klinebergetal.1998Smith1995Teisletal.2008TorglerandGarcía-Valiñas2007Xiaoetal.2013Hence,itremainsinconclusivewhetherdifferencesinclimateliteracyacrosseducationgroupsarethedirectresultofeducationaffectingpeople’sattitudestowardsclimatechange,orwhetherthesedifferencesareduetootherfactorsthatmayormaynotbedirectlyobservablesuchasdifferencesinearlylifeexperiences,familybackground,politicalideologies,andinbornpredispositions(Powdthavee2021).Therefore,whilepreviousevidencesuggestsapositivecorrelationbetweeneducationandenvironmentalbehavior,unobservedcharacteristicsthatmightcauseindividualstoattainmoreeducationandcauseindividualstobeenvironmentallyconsciousmakeitdifficulttoinfercausalityfromthisevidence.Itisthusessentialtointroducemechanismsofexogenousvariationsinschoolingsuchascompulsoryschoolinglegislationstoovercometheendogeneityissueandestablishcausality.3.1.TheLinkagesbetweenEducationandClimateChange:TowardaConceptualFrameworkEstablishingtheimpactofschoolingonclimatealsorequiresunderstandingthepathwaysthatcouldleadfromincreasededucationalattainmenttoimprovedenvironmentaloutcomes.Authorshavepreviouslyestablishedtherolethatincreasedschoolingcanplayinchanginganindividual’scognitiveskills(e.g.,PekkalaKerr2013).Dahmann(2017)furthersuggeststhatcognitiveskills,whichincludesinnateabilitiestoreasonandprocessinformationaswellaslearnedknowledgeorbehavior,canimprovethroughincreasedinstructionaltimeandamultiplier-effectontheskillsgainedduringtheearlyyears.OtherauthorssuchasMcguire(2015)andPowdthavee(2021)havesuggestedthatimprovedcognitiveskills,especiallyattitudesandbehaviorsgainedthroughschoolingcanequipindividualstoprocessinformationonclimatechangebetterandfasterthusprovidingonepathwayfromschoolingtopro-environmentalbehavior.Whileimprovedcognitiveskillsprovidesonedirectpathway,thereareotherindirectpathwaysthatmaybeatplayaswell.Hwangetal.(2000)intheirstudybasedattheKwang-ReungArboretumintheRepublicofKoreasuggestthatinadditiontocognitivefactors,thereareaffectiveandsituationalfactorsthatplayaroleinensuringresponsibleenvironmentalbehavior.Affectivefactorsincludefeelingsandemotionswhereassituationalfactorsincludeeconomicconditionsandaccesstoinformationorresources.Thestudyfindsthatanindividual’sbeliefintheirabilitytobringaboutchangeplaysacriticalroleindeterminingtheiractionsandhenceeducationshouldfocusonbuildingcriticalthinkingandactionskillsthatcanenableindividualstotaketheirowndecisions.Levyetal.(2016)intheirstudywithapproximately3,000adultsinIsraelfurtheranalyze8howdifferentdimensionsofcognitiveandaffectivefactorsrelatetoenvironmentalbehavior.Thestudyfindsthataffectivefactors(environmentalconcernandawillingnesstoact)arethestrongestpredictorsfollowedbycognitiveaspectssuchasaction-relatedknowledgeandsocialknowledge.Besidesthecognitiveandaffectivefactors,theroleofsituationalfactorshasalsobeenstudiedinsomedetail.ChankrajangandMuttarak(2017)suggestthatbettereducationresultsinbetterearnings,improvedaccesstoinformation,andincreasedaccesstoresourcesthatcanenableindividualstotakemitigatingaction.Forexample,higherearninghouseholdshavecommandoverresourcessuchasinstallingrenewableenergysourcesathomeorwillingnesstopaycarbontaxes.Also,knowingwheretogetinformationonhowtoreduceemissionsorwhatadaptationstotakecanallowindividualstochangebehaviorappropriately.Withthecausaleffectofeducationonincomepreviouslywellestablishedinliterature(seeHeckmanetal.2016)thisestablishesanindirectpathwayfromeducationtoimprovedenvironmentalbehavior(Figure1).Whilethemodelprovidesapossibleframeworktoestablishtherolethateducationcanplayinaddressingclimatechange,determiningdirectionofcausalityrequiresmoreevidencefromlarge-scalestudiesinananalyticalmodelwithvariationsineducationalattainmentwhereenvironmentalbehaviorisanoutcomevariableandmightleadtoimprovedenvironmentaloutcomes.22Forexample,increasedwillingnesstopayforgreenelectricitycanleadtofasterdecarbonization,resultinginimprovedairqualityandmitigationofclimatechange.Thelinkagesbetweenchangesinbehaviorandenvironmentaloutcomesneedtobefurtherexamined.Figure1:DirectandIndirectpathwaysfromimprovededucationtopro-environmentalbehaviorImprovedEducationCognitiveSkills(AttitudesandBehavior)Pro-EnvironmentalBehaviorIncreasedEarnings(Accesstoresourcesandinformation)Abilitytoact(AdaptionandMitigation)DecisionmakingabilityIncreasedDemand(forenvironmentalaction)93.2.EstablishingCausalityinEducationalResearchEstablishingcausalrelationshipsbetweeneducationandlaterlifeoutcomessuchasincomes,employability,andevenvotingbehaviorhasbeenofinterestformanydecades.Whilethereisoverwhelmingevidenceforthepositiveimpactthatschoolingcanhave,researchershavebeencautiousindrawingstronginferencesaboutthecausaleffectofschoolingespeciallyintheabsenceofexperimentalevidence.However,theemergenceoflarge-scalemicroeconomicdatasetssuchasOECD’sProgrammeforInternationalStudentAssessment(PISA),TrendsinInternationalMathematicsandScienceStudy(TIMSS),andProgressinInternationalReadingLiteracyStudy(PIRLS)hasprovidedresearcherswithmoretoolstostudytheserelationships.Itisnowpossibletodeployeconometricmethodssuchasinstrumentalvariables,regression-discontinuity,propensityscorematching,difference-in-difference,anddifferentsortsoffixed-effectsspecificationstoestablishcausality.CorderoandCristóbal(2017)provideacomprehensiveoverviewofliteraturethatusessuchquasi-experimentaltechniques.Theauthorsalsoprovideexamplesofstudiesthathaveusedsuchtechniquestoestablishtheimpactofvariousschooleducationpolicies.Particularly,thedifference-in-differenceapproachandinstrumentvariablesstrategyhavebeenmostfrequentlyusedforcomparisonbetweenpublicandprivateschools,ortostudytheeffectsofclasssize,tracking,instructionaltime,teachingmethods,schoolentryage,etc.Theauthorsfurthersuggestcreatinglongitudinaldatasetstofurthercausalresearchinthesector.Schlotteretal.(2011)providefurtherexamplesfortheapplicationsofthesecausalmethodsandtheissuesfacedinaggregationofrelevantdata.Othertechniquesthathavebeensuggestedincludeusingco-twincontroldesignsonmanymonozygotictwinpairstounderstandtheimpactofschoolingonfactorssuchaspoliticalknowledge(WeinschenkandDawes2019),wages(Bingleyetal.2009),andhealth(FujiwaraandKawachi2009).Heckmanetal.(2016)andCard(1999)furtherpresenttheoreticalmodelsthatbuildonvariationsofthesimplestaticmodelspresentedbyBecker(1964)toestimatetheprivatereturnstoeducation.However,estimatingthesocialreturnsusingthesemodelsremainsalimitation.Thus,whilenumerousmethodshavebeenadvancedtocausallyestimatetheex-postreturnsforeducation,thelackoflarge-scalepaneldatalimitsgeneralizabilityoftheseresults.Usingcompulsoryschoolinglawsasasourceofexogenousvariationisthusonepossiblewaytoovercomethislimitationespeciallybecausemanycountrieshavehistoricallyintroducedormadechangestotheircompulsoryschoolinglawsatdifferenttimes.Thenextsub-sectionpresentsanoverviewofsomestudiesthatmakeuseoftheselawstoestablishcausality.3.3.CompulsorySchoolingasanInstrumentandItsUseinClimateResearchNumerousstudieshaveusedchangesincompulsoryschoolinglaws,wheresomeindividualsarerandomlyforcedtostayinschoollongerthantheirpeers,asanaturalexperimenttoresearchtheeffectofeducationalattainmentonvariousaspectsofhumandevelopment.Forexample,AngristandKrueger(1991),usinglongitudinaldatafromtheU.S.Censusesof1960,1970,and1980formenshowthatcompulsoryschoolattendancelawscanhaveapositiveeffectonschoolingandearnings(seealsoDomnisoru2021).Theauthorsfurthersuggestthatcompulsoryschoolinglaws10canimproveeducationalattainmentandthushaveanassociatedeffectonothersocialandenvironmentalfactors.ThisisfurtherconfirmedbyLleras‐Muney(2002;seealsoGrenet2013)whoshowsthatlegallyrequiringchildrentoattendschoolforonemoreyearincreasededucationalattainmentbyabout5percent.Furthermore,thestudyusesdatafromthe1960,1970,and1980U.S.censusesinconjunctionwithchangesincompulsoryschoolingbetween1915to1939toestablishthateachyearofadditionalschoolingcanreducemortalityby3-6percent.OtherresearchershaveusedtheonsetofcompulsoryschoolinglawchangestoestimatethereturnstoschoolingintheRepúblicaBolivarianadeVenezuela(PatrinosandSakellariou2005),theNetherlands(LevinandPlug1999),Australia(LeighandRyan2008),Sweden(Card2001),Ireland(CallanandHarmon1999),Türkiye(Patrinos,PsacharopoulosandTansel2021),theUnitedStates(HarmonandWalker1995),forexample.InEurope,Brunello,FortandWeber(2009),usingdatafrom12Europeancountriesshowthatcompulsoryschoolreformssignificantlyaffecteducationalattainment,especiallyamongindividualsbelongingtothelowestquantilesofthedistributionofability.Thereisalsoevidencethatadditionaleducationreducesconditionalwageinequality,andthateducationandabilityaresubstitutesintheearningsfunction.AparicioandKuehn(2017)usedatafrom31Europeancountriestofindthateducationalattainmentisakeyfactorforunderstandingwhysomeindividualsmigrateandothersdonot.Theauthorssuggestthatindividualsmovingfromlowtomediumpartoftheeducationdistributionarelesslikelytomigrateacrosscountriesforemployment.Otherusesofcompulsoryschoolinglawstoobtaincausalestimateshavebeenusedinmortalitystudies(e.g.,AlbouyandLequien2009;Gathmannetal.2015),health(e.g.,Kemptneretal.2011),crime(e.g.,Belletal.2016),religion(e.g.,Hungerman2014),preferences(e.g.,Yang2021),andimmigration(e.g.,CavailleandMarshall2018).3.4.UseofCompulsorySchoolingLawstoStudytheImpactonEnvironmentalBehaviorsTherehasrecentlybeensomeinterestinusingregressiondiscontinuitydesignwithchangesincompulsoryschoolinglawstoanalyzewhethermoreschoolingimprovesclimatechangeliteracyandpro-environmentalattitudesandbehaviorslaterinlife.Usingtheraisingofschoolleavingage(ROSLA)lawfromSeptember1972whichincreasedschoolleavingagefrom15to16yearsinEnglandasanaturalexperiment,Powdthavee(2021)showsthatremaininginschoolbecauseofthereformcausallyreducespeople’sunwillingnesstochangetheirbehaviorsfortheenvironmentandtheirperceptionthatclimatechangeistoofarinthefuturetoworry.However,Powdthaveefindslittleevidencethatmoreeducationimprovesthepro-environmentalbehaviorsofthosewhowereaffectedbythereform.Thisraisesanimportantquestionofwhetherpoliciesaimedatimprovingclimatechangeawarenessthrougheducationcaneffectivelyproducelong-lastingchangesinpro-environmentalbehaviors.ForEuropeasaregion,usingaregressiondiscontinuitydesigntoinstrumentforeducationalattainment,Meyer(2015)useschangesincompulsoryeducationlawsinthe20thcenturyasasourceofexogenousvariation.Meyerfindsstrongevidenceofapositiveaveragetreatmenteffectofincreasededucationonpro-environmentalbehavior.UsingtwowavesofEurobarometersurveys,hefindsapositivelocalaveragetreatmenteffectfor7of8pro-environmentalbehaviors.Ananalysisofrelatedquestionsonthesurveysupportsthenotionthateducationcausesindividualstobemoreconcernedwithsocialwelfareandtoaccordinglybehaveinamoreenvironmentallyfriendlymanner(Meyer2015).However,thestudyisrestrictedto14Europeancountrieswhere11majorityoftheeducationalreformsincreasedtheminimumschoolinglevelto9or10thuslimitingthefindingstothelowerendofschoolingdistribution.Awidersampleincorporatingalargernumberofcountrieswithreformsencompassingbothprimaryandsecondaryschoolingmayprovidemoregeneralizableresults.Thefewstudiesthatfocusondevelopingcountriesunearthdifferentresults.Forexample,ChankrajangandMuttarak(2017)adoptaninstrumentvariablestrategywithself-reportedpro-environmentalbehaviorsasthedependentvariableandsupplyofeducation(numberofteachersper1,000children)asaninstrumentinThailand.Theyfindthatimprovingeducationlevelscanhaveapositiveimpactonknowledge-basedenvironmentallyfriendlyactionsbutmaynothavethesameeffectoncost-savingpro-environmentalactionssuchasminimizinguseofelectricityandwater,orwillingnesstopayenvironmentaltaxes.SimilarresearchinPhilippinesbyHoffmanandMuttarak(2020)usingPropensityScoreMatchingfindsthatadditionalyearofschoolingsignificantlyincreasestheprobabilityofpro-environmentalactionsby3.3percent.However,thestudyusescross-sectionalnon-experimentaldatathuslackingcausality.Thesestudiesfurtherhighlighttheneedforfurtherresearchonthelinkagesbetweenhumandevelopmentandenvironmentaloutcomesinarepresentativesampleofcountriesusinglong-rangepaneldataandchangesincompulsoryschoolinglawstoestablishcausality.ThevariousstudiesusingcompulsoryschoolinglawsasinstrumentstostudytheimpactonhumandevelopmentoutcomesaresummarizedinTable2.Table2:SummaryofStudiesusingCompulsorySchoolingLawsasInstrumentstoStudyImpactonClimateOutcomesCountry,yearDataDependentvariableEducationvariableControlsMethodsResultReferenceEngland,Wales2012,2014Cross-sectionClimatechangeliteracy;pro-environmentalbehaviorsEducationlevelMonthofbirth,sexCausal:RD-compulsoryschoolinglaws(+)willingnesstochangebehaviorforenvironment;noeffectonbehaviorsPowdthavee2021Europe2007,2011Cross-sectionPro-environmentalbehaviorsEducationlevelAge,countryfixedeffectsCausal:RD-compulsoryschoolinglaws(+)pro-environmentalbehaviorsMeyer2015Thailand2013Cross-sectionEnvironmentalattitudes;willingnesstopayforenvironmentaltaxEducationlevelAge,Occupation,Wage,SexCausal:IV-compulsoryschooling,teachersper1000students(+)knowledgebasedpro-environmentalactions;nocost-savingaction;noimpactonconcernforglobalwarming;noimpactonpayChankrajangandMuttarak2017Philippines2015Pro-environmentalbehaviorsEducationlevelNon-Causal:PSM(+)increasedknowledge;someeffectonbehaviorHoffmannandMuttarak2020124.ConclusionHumandevelopmentandenvironmentaloutcomesareintrinsicallylinkedandaffecteachotherinnumerousways.Whilethereisvastliteratureontherolethatenvironmentalconditionscanplayinhumandevelopmentoutcomes,theroleofhumandevelopmentinterventionsinenvironmentaloutcomesisfarmoredifficulttoascertain.Researchershaveoftenlinkedeconomicgrowthwithhumandevelopmentandsuggestedthataseconomiesdevelop,theyinitiallywitnessaperiodofincreasedenvironmentaldegradationfollowedbyaU-shapedrecovery.Thenatureofthisrelationshipsuggeststhattheremaybecertainhumandevelopmentfactorssuchaseducationandpercapitaincomeatplayindeterminingtherelationshipbetweeneconomicgrowthandenvironmentaloutcomes.Humandevelopmentinterventionshavealsobeenawaytoaddressenvironmentaldegradation.Numerousadaptiveandmitigativemeasuresrangingfromriskassessmentofkeyinfrastructuretoredesigningcurriculumsandpromotingresearchinuniversitieshavebeensuggestedbypolicypractitionersandthinktanksovertheyears.Whilethetypeofinterventionssuggestedarebroadlybasedontherationalethateducatedindividualsarelikelytobemoreenvironmentallyconscious,acausalrelationshiphasproventobequiteelusive.Thepapersynthesizesthevastliteratureontheinterlinkagesbetweenhumandevelopmentinterventionsandenvironmentaloutcomes.Whilemostofthesestudieshavedocumentedapositivecorrelationbetweeneducationandenvironmentalbehavior,unobservedcharacteristicsmakeitdifficulttoinfercausalitybecausetheremaywellbeomittedvariablesthatcauseindividualstoattainmoreeducationandcauseindividualstobeenvironmentallyconscious.Weassesscompulsoryschoolinglawsasapossibleinstrumenttodeterminecausality.Changesincompulsoryschoolinglawsovertheyearshavebeenusedbyresearchersasanaturalexperimentinaregressiondiscontinuitydesigntostudytheeffectofeducationalattainmentonfactorsrangingfromreturnstoschoolingtomigration.Whileauthorshaveusedthemethodologytostudytheeffectofeducationonpro-environmentalbehaviors,evidenceonwhetherpoliciesaimedatimprovingclimatechangeawarenessthrougheducationcaneffectivelyproducelong-lastingchangesinpro-environmentalbehaviorsremainsinconclusive.Thus,creatingabroaderdatasetincorporatingeducationlawchangesoveralongertime-periodalongwithotherconfoundingvariablesforarepresentativesampleofdevelopinganddevelopedcountriesmightproviderobustresultsandhelpdesignbetterhumandevelopmentpoliciesinthefuture.13ReferencesAcemoglu,D.andAngrist,J.(2001).Howlargearehuman–capitalexternalities?Evidencefromcompulsory-schoolinglaws.NBERMacroeconomicsAnnual200015:9-74.Albouy,V.andLequien,L.(2009).Doescompulsoryeducationlowermortality?JournalofHealthEconomics28(1):155-168.Anderson,A.(2012).Climatechangeeducationformitigationandadaptation.JournalofEducationforSustainableDevelopment6(2):191-206.Angrist,J.D.andKrueger,A.B.(1991).DoesCompulsorySchoolAttendanceAffectSchoolingandEarnings?QuarterlyJournalofEconomics106(4):979–1014.Aparicio,A.andKuehn,Z.(2017).CompulsorySchoolingLawsandMigrationAcrossEuropeanCountries.Demography54(6):2181–2200.Arceo,E.,Hanna,R.andOliva,P.(1March2016).DoestheEffectofPollutiononInfantMortalityDifferBetweenDevelopingandDevelopedCountries?EvidencefromMexicoCity.TheEconomicJournal,126(159):257–280.Ardoin,N.M.,Bowers,A.W.andGaillard,E.(2020).Environmentaleducationoutcomesforconservation:Asystematicreview.BiologicalConservation241:108224.Armand,A.andKimTaveras,I.(January1,2021).TheOceanandEarly-ChildhoodMortalityandDevelopment.CEPRDiscussionPaperNo.DP15680.Ayalon,O.,Brody,S.andShechter,M.(2014).Householdwastegeneration,recyclingandprevention.OrganisationforEco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Orderedprobitregression(+)forpost-gradin4of7recyclingcategories,severalothereducationlevels(+)forsomerecyclingcategoriesFerraraandMissios2005WatersavingbehaviorLevelofformaleducationNoneClusteranalysisSignificantdifferencesineducationlevelsacrossclustersGilgandBarr200624DependentvariableEducationvariableControlsMethodsResultReferenceSeveralwatersavingbehaviorsYearsofpost-secondaryeducationNoneCorrelationcoefficient(−)forpluggingsinkwhilewashingdishes,recyclingrainwater,takingshowerinsteadofbath;norelationshipforturnoffwaterwhilebrushingteeth,watergardenincoolestpartofdayGrafton2014Preferencesforeco-labeledseafoodIndicatorforatleasta4-yrdegreeMemberofenvironmentalorganization,frequencyofconsumingseafood,seafoodbudget,gender,age,incomeContingentchoice,logitmodel(−)forNorwegianhouseholds,insignificantforUSAhouseholdsJohnstonetal.20014measuresofenvironmentalconcernYearsofeducationGender,age,ethnicity,sizeoftown,income,politicalideology,religiosityLogistic,Poissonregressions(+)foralmostallspecificationsandmeasuresofconcernKlinebergetal.1998WTPforgreenenergy,electricitydemandYearsofpost-secondaryeducationIncome,memberofenvironmentalorganization,energybehaviorindex,indexofconcernforclimatechange,homesize,householdsize,hometype,yearsinresidence,urban,age,gender,maritalstatus,employmentstatusOLS,Tobit,Hurdlemodel,ExponentialtypeIITobit(+)forWTPforgreenenergy,nosignificantrelationshipforelectricitydemandKriströmandKiran2014OrganicfoodconsumptionIndicatorforatleastone-yearpost-highschooleducationNotreportedNotspecifiedNosignificantrelationshipMillockandNauges2014PurchaseoforganiceggsandmilkNotspecifiedIncome,age,familysizeDiscretechoice,multivariatelogit(+)inincreasingcross-complementaritybetweenchoicesoforganicproductsMonieretal.2009EnergyuseLevelofeducation,unitsnotspecifiedAge,income,householdsize,self-enhancement,environmentalquality,self-direction,opennesstochange,maturity,family,healthandsafety,achievement,newenvironmentalparadigm,concernaboutglobalwarmingOLS(−)forhomeenergyuse,(+)fortransportenergyusePoortingaetal.20045householdrecyclingbehaviorsIndicatorsforlevelofeducation(beyondHSdegree,bachelor'sdegree,andgraduateorprofessionaldegree)Measuresforavailabilityandknowledgeofrecyclingprograms,householdsize,maritalstatus,gender,age,numberofhoursworkedperweek,incomeProbitregressionBeyondHSdegree(+)for3behaviors,bachelor's(+)for4behaviors,graduate(+)for4behaviorsReschovskyandStone199425DependentvariableEducationvariableControlsMethodsResultReferenceWillingnesstopaypremiumforgreenelectricityIndicatorsforhighestlevelachieved(highschoolorless,somecollege,bachelor’sdegree,graduatedegree)NoneSpearman'scorrelation(+)associationRowlandsetal.2003Contributingmoneytoenvironmentalgroups,signingpetitionaboutenvironmentalissues,recyclingYearsofeducation,collegemajorIncome,gender,age,race,supportofenvironmentallaws,science,andenvironmentalknowledgeProbitregression(+)forrecycling,notstatisticallysignificantforotherbehaviors,majorsmostlynotsignificantSmith1995Credibilityofecolabelinformation,perceivedenvironmentalfriendlinessofvehicle,importanceoflabelinformationYearsofeducationGender,age,someenvironmentalbelief/concernmeasuresSimultaneousequations,Orderedprobit(+)forcredibilityandimportanceofecolabel,(−)forperceivedenvironmentalfriendlinessTeisletal.2008PurchaseoforganicproduceIndicatorsforlevelofeducation(collegedegreeandgraduateorprofessionaldegree)Cosmeticdefects,price,income,age,numberofchildreninhousehold,gender,distancetogrocerystoreRandomutilitydiscretechoicemodel(−)forgraduateorprofessionaldegreeThompsonandKidwell1998WillingnesstopreventenvironmentaldamageFormaleducation(ageatwhichcompletedformaleducation),informaleducation(discussingpolitics)Age,gender,maritalstatus,employmentstatus,trust,membershipinenvironmentalorg.,geographicidentification,sizeoftown,regionalandtimecontrolsOrderedprobitregression(+)forinformaleducation(robust),(+)forformaleducation(notrobust)TorglerandGarcía-Valiñas2007Preferencesforeco-labeledseafoodIndicatorforatleasthighschooldegreefrequencyoffishpurchases,weeklyseafoodbudget,trustincertifyingagencies,region,gender,principalshopper,memberofenvironmentalorganization,subscriptiontoenvironmentalmagazine,beliefsonoverfishingContingentchoice,logitmodelNosignificantrelationshipWessellsetal.199926DependentvariableEducationvariableControlsMethodsResultReference6measuresofenvironmentalconcernNumberofyearsofschoolingGender,income,residence,age,non-adminjob,adminjob,ChineseCommunistPartyaffiliationStructuralequationmodeling(SEM)(+)forcompositeenvironmentalconcernvariableXiaoetal.2013PurchaseoforganicfoodIndicatorforatleastfouryearsofcollegeNumberofchildren,gender,age,race,religion,politicalidentity,income,foodexpenditures,cookingcontrols,knowledge/familiarityvariables,personalconnectionvariables,intentiontoactvariables,opportunityvariablesZepedaandLi2007
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