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Technology Vision 2023

When Atoms meet Bits

e foundations of our new reali

From insights to action, the path to extraordinary value starts here.

Introduction | Digital identity | Your data, my data, our data | Generalizing AI | Our forever frontier 2

#TechVisionTechnology Vision 2023 | When Atoms meet Bits

While standing at the edge of the next great

technological era, enterprises must navigate economic

and geopolitical uncertainty. The natural inclination of

many organizations is to pull back. We have a different

perspective. Now more than ever is the time for leaders

to lean into strategies powered by technology to create

differentiation. In fact, 10 years ago we predicted every

business is a digital business, and this could not be

more accurate today.

We’ve talked about the ve key forces of change

that companies must harness over the next decade,

including the need for total enterprise reinvention.

Cloud, AI, and the metaverse, in particular, have

accelerated to such degrees that they dramatically

speed up change, bend the innovation curve and

create more and more value for every business

and organization.

Foreword

Businesses must embrace the foundations of our new reali

Yet our research shows that only 8% of companies

are adopting a strategy of total enterprise reinvention.

These are the Reinventors, and we believe every

company must aspire to be one. Among that

backdrop, our Technology Vision provides insights

to enable leaders and their organizations to act now

to embrace technology and use the foundations of a

new reality as a path towards reinvention.

With this vision, we examine our movement between

two types of worlds, physical and digital. Over

the years, enterprises and individuals have taken

many steps to create their presence in the digital

space, consciously moving back and forth between

physical reality and the digital ones they created.

We believe the time has come to change that. The

next wave of business transformation will erase the

demarcation between those worlds to fuse them

into a new reality.

The goal is not incremental improvement, but a step

change towards total reinvention. Not everyone may

be ready for this change, but leaders must prepare

now for the future where the movement between

worlds is seamless and often simultaneous.

We look forward to sharing our latest Technology

Vision and building the foundations of a new reality

with you.

Technology is the answer. The time is now.

Julie Sweet

Chief Executive Ofcer

Paul Daugherty

Group Chief Executive -

Technology & Chief Technology Ofcer

Contents

Digital identity

ID for everyone

and everything

22 - 40

Your data,

my data, our data

Why transparency

will become your most

precious resource

41 - 59

Generalizing AI

e radical edges—

and possibilities—

of intelligence

60 - 80

Our forever

frontier

e big bang of computing

and science

81 - 101

Technology Vision 2023 | When Atoms meet Bits #TechVision

Introduction | Digital identity | Your data, my data, our data | Generalizing AI | Our forever frontier

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TechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThefoundationsofournewrealityFrominsightstoaction,thepathtoextraordinaryvaluestartshere.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier2#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsWhilestandingattheedgeofthenextgreattechnologicalera,enterprisesmustnavigateeconomicandgeopoliticaluncertainty.Thenaturalinclinationofmanyorganizationsistopullback.Wehaveadifferentperspective.Nowmorethaneveristhetimeforleaderstoleanintostrategiespoweredbytechnologytocreatedifferentiation.Infact,10yearsagowepredictedeverybusinessisadigitalbusiness,andthiscouldnotbemoreaccuratetoday.We’vetalkedaboutthefivekeyforcesofchangethatcompaniesmustharnessoverthenextdecade,includingtheneedfortotalenterprisereinvention.Cloud,AI,andthemetaverse,inparticular,haveacceleratedtosuchdegreesthattheydramaticallyspeedupchange,bendtheinnovationcurveandcreatemoreandmorevalueforeverybusinessandorganization.ForewordBusinessesmustembracethefoundationsofournewrealityYetourresearchshowsthatonly8%ofcompaniesareadoptingastrategyoftotalenterprisereinvention.ThesearetheReinventors,andwebelieveeverycompanymustaspiretobeone.Amongthatbackdrop,ourTechnologyVisionprovidesinsightstoenableleadersandtheirorganizationstoactnowtoembracetechnologyandusethefoundationsofanewrealityasapathtowardsreinvention.Withthisvision,weexamineourmovementbetweentwotypesofworlds,physicalanddigital.Overtheyears,enterprisesandindividualshavetakenmanystepstocreatetheirpresenceinthedigitalspace,consciouslymovingbackandforthbetweenphysicalrealityandthedigitalonestheycreated.Webelievethetimehascometochangethat.Thenextwaveofbusinesstransformationwillerasethedemarcationbetweenthoseworldstofusethemintoanewreality.Thegoalisnotincrementalimprovement,butastepchangetowardstotalreinvention.Noteveryonemaybereadyforthischange,butleadersmustpreparenowforthefuturewherethemovementbetweenworldsisseamlessandoftensimultaneous.WelookforwardtosharingourlatestTechnologyVisionandbuildingthefoundationsofanewrealitywithyou.Technologyistheanswer.Thetimeisnow.JulieSweetChiefExecutiveOfficerPaulDaughertyGroupChiefExecutive-Technology&ChiefTechnologyOfficerContentsDigitalidentityIDforeveryoneandeverything22-40Yourdata,mydata,ourdataWhytransparencywillbecomeyourmostpreciousresource41-59GeneralizingAITheradicaledges—andpossibilities—ofintelligence60-80OurforeverfrontierThebigbangofcomputingandscience81-1013TechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits#TechVisionIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsTechnologyVision2023Whenweshop,weeithergointoastoreorpullupawebpage.Weworkinpersonorremote.Wecollaboratewithpeopleandcomputers,butusuallynotatthesametime.Weliveourlivessplitbetweenthedigitalandthephysical,and,frankly,movingacrosstheseseparaterealitiesisexhaustingandinefficient.Transitioningbetweenthemcanbechallenging,confusing,orimpossible,andwhileitcanbeeasiertofocusonjustoneortheother,doingsoisfundamentallylimiting.So,it’stimetochangethat.Thenextwaveofbusinesstransformationwillshiftfromcreatingisolateddigitalcapabilitiestocreatingthefoundationsofanewreality—asharedrealitythatseamlesslyconvergesthephysicalliveswe’vebeenleadingwiththedigitaloneswe’vebeenrapidlyexpanding.Thegoalisnotincrementalimprovement,butastepchange.Anonlinestorehereorasmarterobjecttheremayhavebeengoodenoughinthepast,butwearenowrealizingthatthetruevalueofcombiningdigitalandphysicaltogethergoesmuchfurther.LookatgenerativeAI.InterestingenerativeAIissurging,withnewtoolscapturingtheworld’sattentionfasterthananyotherrecenttechnology.Buthowpeopleareusingthemrightnow—tocreatedigitalimagesandcontent—isjustthebeginning.Wecanalreadyseethatthistechnologyispoisedtoshapethefutureofscience,enterprisedata,howwedesignandmanufactureproducts,andsomuchmore.WhenAtomsmeetBits:ThefoundationsofournewrealityWeliveintwoparallelrealities,oneofatomsandoneofbits.4IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier5#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsIsitchallenging?Yes.ButevenatatimewhentheworldfacesanuncertaineconomicclimateandisstillintheshadowofrecoveryfromCOVID-19,weareseeingenterprisesmakesomeoftheirmostambitiousbetsyet.Theyarefuelinganewwaveofdigital-physicalconvergencethat’spushingusclosertoaseamlesslysharedreality—leveragingthebestofatomsandbitstodrivenovelpossibilties.Inhealthcare,thissharedrealityispushingustowardspersonalizedcare.WithfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion,aconsortiumofhospitals,researchers,andstartupshavejoinedtheNeurotwinproject,anefforttobuilddigitaltwinsofindividualhumanbrains.1,2Eachtwinwouldbeusedtohelphealthcareprovidersunderstandandpredicttriggersforneurologicaldiseasesandimprovepreventativeinterventions.TheprojectissettolaunchtwostudiesonindividualssufferingfromAlzheimer’sandepilepsyin2023.3Evenproblemsasbigassustainabilityarebeingre-examinedthroughthelensofwhatwecandowhenwecombinephysicalsciencesanddigitaltechnology.In2022,ABInBevexpandedproductionofexecutivesagreethattheconvergenceofdigitalandphysicalworldsoverthenextdecadewilltransformtheirindustry.96%facilitiesforitsbarleyupcyclingcompany,EverGrain,whichusestechnologyandsciencetofindnewapplicationsforbyproductsofthebeer-makingprocess.4,5Thecompanycreatedanewbarleymilk-basedcoffeedrinkwithAirshipCoffee,isdevelopingsnackswithbarley-basedingredientswithPostHoldings,andevendevelopedbarleystraw-basedpackagingforCorona,turningatraditionallydiscardedbyproductintopaperboardboxesthattake90%lesswatertofabricate.6,7,8Butnoteveryoneisreadyforthisstepchange.Formanyyearstheguidingpillarofenterpriseinnovationhasbeentakingprocesses,evenwholepartsoftheorganization,anddigitizingthem—fromhowthefactoryfloorisrun,toloyaltyprograms,advertising,supplychains,andrecentlytheentireworkforce.Forpeople,thestoryhasbeennodifferent.Peoplehavespentyearsbuildingadigitallife:fromhowwedoourbanking,toestablishingourselvesonsocialmedia,tochoosingstreamingovercable—whichtherelativemajorityofTVwatchersdidforthefirsttimethispastsummer.9IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier6#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsWhilewehavebuiltarichandmeaningfuldigitalworld,wehaven’treallyreconcileditwiththephysicalone.Challengeswithdigitalidentityanddatainteroperabilityleavepeopleoverwhelmedwithtechnologyandexposedtonewdimensionsoffraudandrisk.Manyenterpriseswatchedtheirentireworkforcegodigitalandarenowsufferingattritionastheystruggletofigureouthowtohybridizearemoteworkforce.Wehaven’tevenreallyaccountedforthedirectimpactourdigitaleffortshavehadonthephysicalworld,likehowanestimatedfivebillionmobilephoneswillbethrownoutin2022alone,orhowforallofcloudcomputing’sefficiencybenefits,ithassurpassedcommercialairlinesinitscontributionstoglobalCO2emissions.10,11Givenhowdisconnectedanddisjointedourdigitalandphysicalworldscanfeel,it’snowonderthatthenextdecadeofinnovativeeffortsisstartingtobedefinedbyhowwefusethetwotogether.Thefoundationsofthisnewrealityarealreadybeingputinplace,sothetimetomakeyourownmarkisnow.Lastyear,inAccenture’s2022TechnologyVision,wecalledouttheMetaverseContinuumasthenextbigstepafterdigitaltransformation.Thoughsomemayseethemetaverseastheculminationofthelastwaveofdigitaldisruption,it’sbetterviewedasthebeginningofthenext.Themetaverseisawatershedmomentfortheconvergenceofatomsandbits,acceleratingthepathtoasingularsharedreality.Acrossthemetaversecontinuumwearemakingthedigitalworldbehavemorelikehowweexperiencethephysical,andconverselyweareusingmetaversetechnologiestoreimaginewhatwedointhephysicalworld.Itisthenexusbetweendigitalandphysical—whichiswhysomeofthemostpowerfulwayswehaveseenthemetaverseusedarewaysinwhichwefusethetwo.Forexample,theveryfirst3D-printedsteelbridgeintheworldwasbuiltinAmsterdamandwasdesignedwiththiskindofdigital-physicalhybridizationinmind.12Notonlywasthebridgecreatedwith3D-printingandroboticarms,butitwasalsodesignedspecificallytocoexistwithadigitaltwin.Itwasembeddedwithacutting-edgesensornetworkthatnowfeedsadigitaltwinwithreal-timedataonvibration,strain,weatherconditions,andmore.Thetwincanpredicthowthebridgewillbehave,suchGivenhowdisconnectedanddisjointedourdigitalandphysicalworldscanfeel,it’snowonderthatthenextdecadeofinnovativeeffortsisstartingtobedefinedbyhowwefusethetwotogether.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier7#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsthatmaintenanceneedscanbequicklyresolvedandengineerscanbetterunderstandhow3D-printedsteelmightbeusedinfutureprojects.Othercompaniesareendeavoringtothreaddigitalbackintophysical.GooglehasbeenslowlyintegratinganewwayfindingfeatureintoGoogleMapscalledLiveView.Itcreatesanoverlayofdetailsabout,ordirectionsaround,users’environmentsviageolocatorsandsmartphonecameras.13AndSnaphasbeenexpandingitsARtechnologyfarbeyondfilters,partneringwithcompanieslikeAmazon,Puma,andRalphLaurentointegrate3Dproductmodelingandaugmentedrealitytry-onfeaturesintotheshoppingexperience.14,15Thisblurringofthedigital-physicalboundaryisnowexposingnewmodesofcommerce:thecompanyisrollingoutanew“DressUp”featurewhereuserscandiscover,tryon,andshopfornewproductsdirectlyintheapp,andthecompanyreported250millionpeoplehaduseditsARshoppinglensesoverfivebilliontimesinjustoneyearalone.Whilethebuddingmetaversecontinuumisthemostattention-grabbingfrontieronthepathtoournewreality,it’shardlytheonlyone.OpenAIopen-sourcedoneofthemostpowerfulAutomaticSpeechRecognition(ASR)neuralnetworks,calledWhisper,whichwastrainedonnearly700,000hoursofspeech-relateddataandapproacheshuman-likelevelsofaccuracy.16ASRandnaturallanguageprocessingarefusingthedigitalandphysicalbydoingawaywithtoday’sabstractionslikekeyboardsandgesturesandallowingpeopletoengagethedigitalworldinoneofthemosthumanwayspossible:speech.Orconsiderthegrowingtrendofcobots(collaborativerobots),amarketthatissettoexpandto$16.3billionby2028.17Thesemachinesletthepowerofmachineintelligenceandautomationbleedintothephysicalworld,allowingpeopletoworkmorenaturallyandunearthnewefficiencies.Inoneexample,Moxi,acobotdesignedforhospitals,wasabletosavehealthcareworkersatonehospital3,200hoursbytakingcareofroutinetaskslikedeliveriesandallowingthestafftospendmoretimegivingcaretopatients.18...whatbecomesclearisthatmergingdigitalandphysicalisthepathtotrulynewpossibilities.We’vearrivedatanexcitingfrontieroftechnologyinnovationforbusinesses,onewherewe’renotjustdigitizingbutstartingtoputthatdigitalfoundationtowork.Fusingdigitalandphysicalisnotonlygeneratingnewproductsandservices,it’stheforcebehindaneweraofscientificresearch.Leadersarecreatingthenextsetoftoolsanddisruptionspoisedtorewritehowtheworldworks.Andwhat’sbecomeclearisthatwhenatomsandbitscollide,trulynewpossibilitiesemerge.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier8#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThefoundationsofournewrealityTheconvergenceofourparallelrealitieswillevolveoverthenexttenyears.Enterpriseswillfirstfindopportunityfromitinspecific,narrowercircumstances.Itmightbeginasadigitaltwinforasinglebridge,aroboticsdeploymentinahospital,orpairingaproductdesignerwithgenerativeAI.Butastheseinnovationsproliferate,wewillseethemgrowintoentirelynewphysicalenvironments,newwaysofworkinginthemetaverse,andmore.Ultimately,thefusionofatomsandbitswilldisruptthefabricofourworlds,wherematerialsandlivingthingsareinterlacedwithtechnologyandtechnology’scapabilitiesexpandexponentially—leadingustoanewfrontier.2023TechnologyVision:#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits9IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierThisyear’s2023TechnologyVisionexploresthetechnologytrendsdrivingthisnewreality,andthestepsenterpriseswillneedtotaketothriveinit.Wechartthepaththatbeginswithblurringphysicalanddigital,continuesthroughtheintractableproblemscompaniesarestartingtobeabletosolve,andconcludeswiththesciencetechnologyrevolutionthat’sbringingtruenoveltytobusinessesandtheworld.Indigitalidentitywediscusshowidentityisthequietcatalystofthisnextgenerationofinnovation.Ourbiggesttechnologicalambitionsarebeingheldbackbyoldmodelsofidentity.Thephysical-digitalconvergencewillonlybesparkedwhenpeopleandthingshaveidentitythatcantraversebothsides.AndemergingformsofdigitalIDarefinallybreakingdownthewallsthatdivideenterprisesandpeople’sphysicalanddigitallives,sparkingatorrentofchange.Yourdata,mydata,ourdataexploreshowtransparencywillbeapreciousresourceforenterpriseslookingtoleadthesechanges.Supplyanddemandfordataamongallenterprisestakeholdersisdramaticallyincreasing.Enterpriseswillneedtorethinktheirdatacollectionandarchitecturedesigntobeginexposingthedatathatmatters.Leadershaveanunprecedentedopportunitytobuildtrustwithpartnersandcustomersbyproactivelybecomingmoretransparent—orriskhavingsomeoneelsedoitforthem.Butthetaskofbuildingthisnewrealitywon’tjustbeforhumans.GeneralizingAIexploreshowanewcategoryofAI—spurredonbyfoundationmodelsandlargelanguagemodels—isbecomingtablestakesforanybusinessoperatingintomorrow’smarket.Withthesheervolumeofdataandinsightsneededtodrivesolutionsfortheproblemsenterprisesface,businessleaderswillneedtoleanonthefullcapabilitiesthatgenerativeAIandthenextgenerationofAIadvancesprovide.Andfinally,ourforeverfrontiergivesenterprisesawindowintowhatliesfartherdowntheline:thesciencetechnologyrevolution.Itexploreshowthefeedbackloopbetweenscienceandtechnologyisgettingfaster,witheachacceleratingtheadvancementoftheother,inwaysthatbegintounlocktheworld’sgrandchallenges.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier10#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsIgnitingasciencetechnologyrevolutionistheinevitableresultofenterprisesbringingatomsandbitstogether.Asourdigitalandphysicalrealitiesconvergeintoonesharedreality,physicalscienceanddigitaltechnologyareincreasinglyusedtoamplifyoneanother,fundamentallyreshapingtheworldaroundus.Companiesalreadyhaveatechnologystrategythatencompassesmanagingtheirinformation(IT)andcontrollingtheirphysicalsystems(OT).Tofullyunlocktheopportunityofournewreality,enterprisesneedtoextendthatstrategytoathirddimension—ScienceTech(ST).FromITandOTtoSTBringingAtomsandBitstogether:IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier11#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsTakeAlphaFold,arecentinnovationoutofDeepMind.WhileothereffortslikeAlphaGoandAlphaStarexploredAI’sabilitytowindifferenttypesofgames,AlphaFoldturnedtoafarmorepracticalandsignificantapplication:proteinfolding.19Proteinsarethebuildingblocksofbiology,andtheiruniquethree-dimensionalstructuresdeterminewhatfunctiontheywillperform.So,forinstance,ifapharmaceuticalcompanyweredevelopinganewdrug,understandingvariousproteinshapeswouldbecriticaltounderstandinghowthedrugwillinteractwiththepersonitisbeingadministeredto.Theproblemis,historically,theseareextremelylaborintensivetostudy,orcomputationallyintensivetosimulate.Butinthesummerof2022,DeepMindpubliclyreleasedadatabaseof200milliondifferentproteinstructures—whichcoversnearlyeveryproteinknowntohumanbeings—nowavailabletoallcompaniesandresearchersaroundtheworld.20Thetakeawaygoesbeyondproteinfolding.AlphaFoldunlockedagrandchallenge,andforenterpriseleadersinallindustries,thatsignalsabrand-newworldofpossibility.Thefieldofbiologyhasalwaysbeenlimitedbythetimeittooktoperformoperationsrelatedtoproteinfolding—arestrictioneliminatedbyAlphaFold.Intheshorttimesinceitscreation,AlphaFoldhasbecomeacriticaltoolinthefieldofbiology,acceleratingactivitieslikedrugdiscoveryandthestudyofnovelbacteriaandplantstructures,anddeepeningourunderstandingofdeadlydiseases.21Thisisthetruepowerofbringingscienceandtechnologytogether,notjustefficiencyorevenacceleration—buthowitcompletelyreframesthehorizonofpossibility,shatteringwhatwereonceconsideredinsurmountableconstraints.Leadersneedtoreorientaroundthismindsetshift.Itissubtle,butprofound.Whenenterprisesapproachdigitaltransformation,itisofteninwardlooking.Itisaboutdisruptingtheenterprise,itspartnerships,anditsrelationshiptothemarket,andevendemonstratingnewmodelstothemarketthatforceotherstoreact.Thefocusisongainingadvantageinthecompetitivelandscape.Butenterprisesthatlooktosciencetechnologyaregoingonestepbeyond:Theyaren’tgettingalegupinthesamecompetition,theyareredefiningtherulesofthegame.Asourdigitalandphysicalrealitiesconvergeintoonesharedreality,physicalscienceanddigitaltechnologyareincreasinglyusedtoamplifyoneanother,fundamentallyreshapingtheworldaroundus.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier12#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsComputationalchemistryresearchersattheUniversityofNewMexicousedhighperformancecomputingtoaccomplishinjustfouryearsresearchthatwouldhavetaken7,257yearsonasinglelaptop.22Solugen,abiotechstartup,usedscienceandtechnologytodevelopanewmethodoffabricatingindustrialchemicalsoutofsugarinsteadoffossilfuels,andisalreadypartneringwithwatertreatmentproviders.23AndNokiaispartneringwithASTSpaceMobiletoenabledirect-to-cellphoneconnectivityfromspacetoruralorotherwiseunderservedcommunities.24Thisisthenextgenerationoftechnologydisruption—notjustdigitizingthepresentbutacceleratingtowardsapreviouslyunimaginablefuture.Thepathforwardwillbechallenging.Thereisnooneclearlydefinedtechnologytoinvestin.Thoughtherearesomelikelycontributorslikequantumcomputing,artificialintelligence,andextendedreality,thepointisthatthisgenerationofdisruptionisnolongeraboutdevisingatechnologystrategyalone,itisaboutdesigninganinnovationstrategythattargetsdigital-physicalconvergence.Thecompaniesthatsucceedwillfindthemselvesatthecenterofthesciencetechnologyrevolution,andforbetterorworse,enterprisesaren’thurtingforareastomaketheirplay.Thisisthenextgenerationoftechnologydisruption—notjustdigitizingthepresentbutacceleratingtowardsapreviouslyunimaginablefuture.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier13#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsTakingactioninournewsharedrealityBecomingaleaderinbuildingasharedrealityandinvestinginthescienceandtechnologytoolstogetaheadofdisruptionarenosmalltasks.Understandably,everyenterpriseleadermightwonderwhattheimperativeis.Whytrytogetahead,andwhydoweneedtostartnow?GrandChallenges:IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier14#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThinkaboutsomeofthebiggestchallengesfacingenterprisestoday:agloballaborrealignment;supplychaindisruptions;misinformation;mountingpressurefromcustomersandgovernmentsformoresustainablesolutions;agrowingcyberthreatlandscape.Theseproblemsaretopofmindforeveryexecutive,butimportantly,theyarefundamentallydifferentfromtheproblemsofthepast.Thesearemassivelyinterlockedproblems,withnumerousdimensionsandamultitudeofdifferentpartnersandstakeholdersatplay.Portdelaysandlaborshortagesacrossthefoodserviceindustryareimpactingthebottomlineforfoodsuppliers.25,2652%ofcompanieshavesupplychainpartnersthathavebeenimpactedbyransomware.27Andenterprisesarepoisedtofeeltheimpactsofclimatechange,eveniftheyaremanagingtoavoidthemtoday.InAugust2022,forinstance,companiesinChina’sSichuanprovincewereforcedtoshutdownfactoriesmakingsolarpanels,cement,andmore,afteraworseningdroughtcausedhydropowerreservoirstorunlow.28Isitconceivablethatanyenterprisecouldsolveevenoneofthesealone?Ofcoursenot.Thisistheurgency.Theproblemsenterprisesaremostaffectedbytodayareonestheyarenotyetequippedtosolve.Yesterday’sstrategiesandtechnologiesareprovingtonotbeenoughtoovercomethegrandchallengesenterprisesarestartingtostaredown.Buildingasharedrealityofatomsandbitsisthenecessarypathtostarttacklingnewproblemsinnewways.Technologyhasalwaysrisentomeettheneedsofthetime,andnowthechallengeswefacearebiggerthananyonecompanyalone.It’stimetostartforgingthetoolstofixthem,together.Thinkaboutsustainability.Environmentalimpactisoneofthemostpressinggrandchallengesthatcompaniesandtheworldfacetoday,andincreasinglymorecompaniesareeagertobepartofthesolution.Thoughdespitetheireagerness,manyriskstillmissingtheirtargets.29Whensharedsolutionsarebuilt,however,thefuturestartstobecomemuchmoreattainable.TakeMangoMaterials.Therenewablebioproductsstartupcollaboratedwithresearchersaroundtheworldtoofexecutivesbelievesciencetechcapabilitiescouldhelpaddresssocietalgrandchallengesofhealth-relatedissuesanddiseases,while75%believesciencetechcapabilitiescouldalsohelpaddresspoverty/inequality.83%IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier15#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsdevelopabacteria-producedbioplasticdesignedtodecomposeintheocean.30Sofar,fiveoceanographicequipmentmanufacturingpartnershavecommittedtoreplacingalltheirtraditionalplasticwiththisnewdegradablebioplasticonceit’sready,withcommercializationandotherproductapplicationsbeingexploredasthecollaborationevolves.31Orlookatthegrandchallengeofdeliveringbetterhealthcare.Whenitcomestousingdatatoimprovetreatment,hospitalsaretypicallylimitedtotheirowndatasetsforpatientprivacyreasons.ButinarecentstudypublishedinNatureMedicine,20hospitalsfromaroundtheworldparticipatedintrainingafederatedlearningmodelcalledEXAM,whichpredictedfutureoxygenrequirementsofCOVID-19patients.32Themodelleverageddata,includingpatientvitalsigns,laboratorydata,andchestX-rays,fromalloftheparticipatinghospitals—buteachhospitaltrainedtheirowncopyoftheAImodelandperiodicallysharedupdateswithacentralizedserver,whichthenaggregatedthemtotraintheglobalmodel.Inthiscase,thehospitalscreatedasharedrealitythattheycouldn’thavebefore,usingfederatedlearningtosafelysharedigitaldataonphysicalinformationtoimproveAIpredictions.16TechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits#TechVisionFoundationsforanewrealityMountingchallengesontheglobalstageareforcingenterprisestoreorienttheirbusinessobjectivesandimaginehowtheycanbestcontributetosolvingthesecollectiveproblems.Someoftoday’sproblemsmighthavebeenconsideredunsolvablebefore—butastheconvergenceofatomsandbitscontinuestogrow,theboundsofpossibilityexpand.Digitalidentitygivesusafoundationtotraversedigitalandphysicalworlds;transparencybuildsthetrustandunlocksthedatainsightsnecessarytoexposeandtacklecollectiveproblems;generalizingAIprovidesuswiththemachinepowertoaidusindoingso;andourforeverfrontierisrapidlyexpandingaswebringphysicalsciencesandinformationtechnologyclosertogether.Thesefoundationsofournewrealityarethepathtotakingaction.Theworldiswatching.Whatwillyoudonext?IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier17#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsDigitalidentityIDforeveryoneandeverythingDigitalidentityisquietlybecomingthekeytoenterprises’technologyaspirations,andeffortstoreimagineitareunderway—notjustforpeoplebutforallthings.Yourdata,mydata,ourdataWhytransparencywillbecomeyourmostpreciousresourceDataecosystemsarebeingreshapedbyradicaltransparencyasenterprisesleveragetheirtrovesofdatatoofferunprecedentedinsightintotheirbusiness.GeneralizingAITheradicaledges—andpossibilities—ofintelligenceFoundationmodelsaredrivingoneofthebiggeststepchangesinAIhistory.Now,enterpriseleaderscanshiftfrombuildingtheirownAItobuildingwithAI.OurforeverfrontierThebigbangofcomputingandscienceAfterdecadesofhyperfocusondigitaltechnology,scienceisleapingbacktothetopofenterprises’agendas.OurFourTechnologyTrendsfor2023#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits18CompletingthepictureAccenture’sTechnologyVisionreportcomprisesathree-yearsetoftechnologytrends,currentlyincludingtrendsfrom2021and2022.It’simportanttorecognizethateachyear’strendsarepartofabiggerpicture.Trackinghowtheyevolveovertimeoffersaglimpseintohowtheymaycontinuetogrowinthefuture.2022TrendsWebMeComputingtheImpossibleTheUnrealProgrammableWorldStackStrategicallyAnywhere,EverywhereI,TechnologistMirroredWorldFromMetoWe2021Trends2023TrendsDigitalidentityOurforeverfrontierGeneralizingAIYourdata,mydata,ourdataIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier19#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits2022TrendsWebMePuttingtheMeinMetaverseTheinternetisbeingreimaginedasmetaverseandWeb3effortstransformtheunderpinningandoperationofthevirtualworld.ProgrammableWorldOurPlanet,PersonalizedControl,customization,andautomationarebeingenmeshedintotheworldaroundus,makingthephysicalasprogrammableasthedigital.TheUnrealMakingSynthetic,AuthenticAsAI-generateddataandsyntheticcontentconvincinglymimicwhatis“real,”authenticityisthenewnorthstar.ComputingtheImpossibleNewMachines,NewPossibilitiesAnewgenerationofcomputersaresolvingsomeoftheworld’smostintractableproblems,leadingtooneofthebiggesttechnologicaldisruptionsofourtime.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier20#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsStackStrategicallyArchitectingaBetterFutureAneweraofindustrycompetitionisdawning–onewherecompaniescompeteontheirarchitecture.MirroredWorldThePowerofMassive,Intelligent,DigitalTwinsGrowinginvestmentsindata,AI,anddigitaltwintechnologiesaregivingrisetoanewgenerationofbusinessandintelligence:themirroredworld.I,TechnologistTheDemocratizationofTechnologyNaturallanguageprocessing,low-codeplatforms,roboticprocessautomation,andmorearedemocratizingtechnology,puttingpowerfulcapabilitiesintothehandsofpeopleallacrossthebusiness.Anywhere,EverywhereBringYourOwnEnvironmentIt’stimeforenterprisestotransformremoteworkfromanaccommodation,toanadvantage.2021TrendsFromMetoWeAMultipartySystem’sPathThroughChaosTheglobaldisruptionofCOVID-19ignitedascrambleforenterprisestoreimaginetheirpartnerships–andmultipartysystemsgainednewfoundattention.21#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits21#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsIt’s2035,andoldcollegefriendsMiriam,Alex,andBenaregrabbingaquickcoffeebeforework.Ben’sfavoritecoffeechainhasjustopenedanewcaféinhisofficebuilding,soheandMiriammeetthere.“Alextexted—somethinghecticisgoingonatthefarm,butshesaysshe’sreadywhenweare.”Bensaysashegetsinlinetoorder.“Ihopeeverything’sokay,”saysMiriam,“Iactuallyorderedahead—I’llgopickupmydrinkandgrabatable.”WhenBengetstothefrontoftheline,hegreetsthebaristaandtoucheshisthumbtothefingerprintsensoronthecounter.“Oh!Tryingoutthepersonalizationprogramtoday?”saysthebarista.“Yeah!I’vebeenhearingaboutit—I’mexcitedtoseewhatthefussisabout,”Bensays.Thescreeninfrontofhimspringstolifewithdozensofhispreferences—idealcaffeinationlevel,flavoraffinities,milkcontent,exacttemperature,andmore.“YougotallthisfrommetalkingtoanAIforAdayinournewrealityfiveminutes?”heasks,eyeswidening.“Wild,right?”saysthebarista.“Theseareyourdefaultpreferences,butyoucantweakthemintheapp,andeachtimeyoucheckoutit’llconfirmwhatyouwantjusttobesure.Hit‘OK’whenyou’reready—lookslikewe’realreadyconnectedtoyourwalletforpayment.”Ben’sfeelingabittired,soheraiseshiscaffeinelevel,thentapsthe‘OK’button.“That’sit?”heasks.“That’sit,”saysthebarista.“Ourbeandispenserwillgiveusacustomblendofour18coffeevarieties—tailoredjustforyou.ThenI’llmakeyourdrinkandhaveitoutinafewminutes.”AsBenturnstofindMiriam,hiswatchvibrateswithanotification,lettinghimknowhe’sbeenairdroppedanNFTfortryingthepersonalizationprogram.Miriamissittingatatableforthree.“We’rejustaboutready,”shesaysashesitsdown.TheyputontheirARglasses—andfinallytheycanseeAlex,sittingintheemptyseatbesidethem.OurTechnologyVision2023trendsaredrivinganewreality—onewhereourphysicalanddigitalworldsconverge.Asweprogressthroughthereport,wewillcontinueBen,Miriam,andAlex’sstoriestoillustratewhatthisrealitycouldlooklike,andhowourtrendscouldimpactbusinessesandpeople’slives.InvisibleARlensespersonalisedbrewIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier22IDforeveryoneandeverythingTechnologyVision2023Digitalidentity22IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier#TechVisionTheRSAcompanyreleasesakeyfobthatdisplayscodestosupplementpasswords–thefirstexampleofmodernmultifactorauthentication331986JohnDaugmanofCambridgeUniversityreceivesapatentforthefirstirisidentificationalgorithm341994MicrosoftacquiresHotmail,anemailservicewith9millionusers351997Estoniaintroducesamandatorydigitalidentitysmartcard362002FacebookConnect,oneofthefirstsocialmedialoginservices,islaunched372008Chinaintroducesanationalpilotofitssocialcreditsystem382014ThecryptowalletMetaMaskislaunchedfortheEthereumblockchain392016TheEUpassesGDPR,settinganewstandardindataprotectionlaw422016India’sdigitalidentityprogram,Aadhaar,enrolls1billionresidentsandisestimatedtosavethegovernment$1billionanually40,412016DeltaAirlinesopensthefirstbiometricterminalintheU.S.,allowingtravelerstousefacialrecognitionforcheck-in,bagdropandmore432018ApplepartnerswithseveralU.S.statestointegratedriver’slicensesintoconsumers’AppleWallets442021Amajorairlinetokenizesitsloyaltyprogram,givingcustomerstheabilitytotrade,sell,andchoosehowtousetheirmiles2024AmajordeliverycompanyfacesaPRcrisiswhenbiometricpersonaldataisstolenbecauseofpoordatasecurity2025Tolimitprescriptionfraud,medicalinsurersandhealthnetworksagreetomakebiometricidentificationtheindustrynorm2026Amajorcarmanufacturerlaunchesadigitalleger,creatinguniquetokensforeachcar,allowingcustomers,dealers,andserviceproviderstologaccidents,maintenanceandsalesofspecificvehicles2028Aconsortiumofmajorbanksentirelydropsemailloginoversecurityconcerns203020%ofmetaverseusersalsousetheirmetaverseidentityforphysicalworldactivitieslikeofficebadgingorcarrental2031Severalcountriesbegintoacceptadigitalinternationaltravelidentificationsysteminplaceofphysicalpassports2033TimelineDigitalIdentity#TechVision23IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier24#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThebigpictureDigitalidentityisquietlycatalyzingthenextgenerationoftechnologydisruption,andtheworld’sleadinginnovatorsarestartingtoact.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier25#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsInAugust2022,MicrosoftlaunchedMicrosoftEntraVerifiedID,anewproductbasedondecentralizedidentitystandards.Thecompany’svisionistobuildanewfuturefordigitalidentity,whereinsteadofwidelyspreadingidentitydataacrosscountlessappsandplatforms,peopleandorganizationscanhavegreatertrustinandcontroloverwhatinformationisaccessed,bywhom,andforhowlong.45,46Andalready,proofofconceptsandpilotprogramsareunderwaywithtwouniversities,ahealthcaresystem,andagovernmentservice.47Andothercompaniesarealsoinnovatinginthisspace.EarlyWarningServicesandsevenbanksincludingCapitalOne,WellsFargo,Chase,andBankofAmericalaunchedAuthentify—anidentityverificationproductthatletsuserslogintotheironlinebanksfromparticipatingwebsitesandapps,streamliningtheprocessforsharingsensitivebankingdata.48ApplehasexpandeditsWalletapp,movingbeyondpaymentinformationtoletusersstoreandsharegovernment-issuedIDslikedriver’slicenses.49Andwhilenotanexampleofinnovationitself,theBill&MelindaGatesFoundationcommitted$200milliontodigitalpublicinfrastructureprojects,includingdigitalID.50Theseareonlyafractionoftheinitiativesunderway,andthemarketfordigitalidentityisexpectedtoswellfrom$27.9billionin2022to$70.7billionby2027.51Digitalidentityiseverevolvingandnotoriouslychallenging,butwhattheseleadershaverecognizedisasimpletruth:Today’sidentityeffortswilldirectlyshapetomorrow’smostinnovativebusinesses.What’smore,theentireC-suiteneedstopayattention.WhiledigitalidentitygivestheillusionofbeingatechnicalchallengesuitedfortheCIO’sorCTO’spurview,thetruthisitunderpinsmanyofourgreatestbusinessambitions.Imaginewhatthenextdecadeofyourenterprisecouldlooklike.Doesitincludethemetaverse,wherepeopletraverseapersistentdigitalenvironmentforwork,socialization,andrecreation?Maybeitinvolvestheprogrammableworld,wherethephysicalenvironmentisthreadedwithtechnologysuchthatpeoplecancommandtheirsurroundingswithawordorgesture.Orperhapsitentailsthegrowingintersectionofscienceandtechnology,wherepossibilitieslikepersonalizedmedicinecanbeIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier26#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsrealized.Whateveryourpreferredvisionis,thenextdecadeoftechnologydisruptionisbeingshapedbyhowourdigitalandphysicalworldsintersect—andtheveryepicenterofthatexchangeisdigitalidentity.Lookatwhatb.wellisdoingtoimprovehealthcareexperiences.52Formanypatients,thereiscriticaldatathatcouldimproveoutcomes;medicalrecords,familyhistory,genomicdata,financialinformation,evenwearablesthattracksleep,exercise,anddietcouldbeusedbyprovidersandpayerstodeliverbetter,morepersonalizedcare.Butthisdataexistsacrossamultitudeofplatformsandhosts,forcingpatientstorepeatedlyvalidatewhotheyare.Thiscanmeangoinginpersontoofficestorequestdata,providingphysicalIDtoprovewhotheyare,andthentakingdatatotherelevantpartyjusttogothroughIDverificationalloveragain.There’stoomuchfrictionthatfrequentlyleavesthiscriticalinformationuntapped.b.wellsawthisasanidentitychallenge,andpartneredwithMastercardtobuildanewintelligentidentityplatformforhealthcaresystems.Theirplatformreplacesemailsandpasswordswithofglobalexecutivesagreethatdigitalidentityisnolongerjusta“technicalissue”;it’sbecomingastrategicbusinessimperativefortheirorganizations.85%mobile-nativebiometricsandprovidessecuredocumentscanningandstorage,givingusersgreatercontrolovertheirmedicalinformationandlettingthemseamlesslyshareitwithprovidersandpayers.53Moreover,itopensthepossibilityofintegratingotherdata,likeproofofincome,toeasetheapprovalprocessforinsurancepoliciesorfinancialreliefprograms.Andonthehealthcareside,itgivesprovidersaccesstostandardizedandhigh-fidelityinformationaboutthoseintheircare,allwhilereducingfraudandrisk.54Althoughthisexampleiscontainedtoasingleecosystem,itsendsastrongmessage.Emergingdigitalidentitysolutionsareprecisely,ifunsuspectingly,theanswertocreatingthetypesofmulti-partnervaluepeopleandenterpriseshavelongbeendesperatefor.Everybusinessleaderneedstorecognizethatdigitalidentityisn’tatechnologyquestion—it’sastrategicbusinessimperative.Thewebwasneverbuiltwithanidentitylayer,andascompanieshaveincreasinglyreliedondigitaltechnologytoruntheirbusinesses,thechallengesresultingfromthatgaphaveIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier27#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitscontinuedtogrow.People,assets,servicesandthedatawehaveaccesstoareallpredicatedonstrongidentity(knowingexactlywhoorwhatsomethingis).Howbusinessesensureresilience,security,privacy,consentandtrustisinextricablydependentonthequalityofdigitalidentity—andthesearechallengesthatcontinuetoplagueenterprisestoday.Whilepatchworksolutionshavegottenustothispoint,achievinganyfurtherambitionswillrequiresolvingtheunderlyingproblem.Onlysecureandtrusteddigitalidentitywillletpeoplefrictionlesslyauthenticatethemselvesacrossanydigitalorphysicalenvironment,maintainfirmercontroloverthedatatheystoreandhowitisshared,andalleviateconcernsaroundsecurity,privacy,andhumanfactorslikepasswordfatigue.Andforenterprisesitcouldeliminatered-tapeandreduceriskbyhavingamoresecureecosystemforhumanandnon-humanentitiesalike.Butimportantly,earlyinnovatorsinthisspacearenowfindingthatdigitalidentityisn’tjustaboutshoringupoversightsofthepastbutalsofuture-proofingtheenterpriseforaworldwheredatasharingandownershipisdramaticallydifferent.Theconceptofatrusted,portabledigitalidentityacrossthewebdisruptsmanyoftheconventionswe’vecometoaccept.Tokenization,forinstance,isoneofthemostinnovativetechnologytrendsthatistransforminghowweauthenticateourselves,sharedata,owndigitalassets,andtrackphysicalthings,andit’sentirelypredicatedontheabilitytoreliablyidentifyanyperson—oranything—inatrustedandsecuremanner.Everybusinessleaderneedstorecognizethatdigitalidentityisn’tatechnologyquestion—it’sastrategicbusinessimperative.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier28#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsLookathowWienEnergie,anAustrianenergyprovider,recentlytokenizedoneofthelargestphotovoltaic(PV)solarplantsinthecountry.55ThecompanycreateduniqueidentifyingtokensforeachindividualPVmoduleintheplant,whichwerethensoldtocustomers.Tokenholdersreceiveanannualpaymentrelativetotheamountofenergyproducedbytheplant.Rightnow,it’saclosedsystem,sopaymentismadeintheformofdiscountsonelectricbills.Butthecompanyenvisionsafuturewherethesetokenscanbeusedtofundnewplants,usedasproofoforiginforenergysources,ortradedtofuelthingslikeelectricvehicles.BygivingtheplantandsolarcellsauniquedigitalID,thecompanywasabletoexposeinnovativenewbusinessmodels,onesthatturnedcustomersintostakeholders.However,thetimetoseizetheopportunityandbecomeanearlyleaderisnow,anditwon’tlastlong.Gainingadvantagewithsinglesolutionsandone-offdisruptiveneweffortstodayisonlypartofthestory.Enterpriseleadersmustgraspthefullscaleandspeedatwhichidentityischangingourdigitalandphysicallandscapes.Whatwearetrulywitnessingisnothingshortofdigitaltransformationatasocietallevel.TheUNcallsforthecreationofalegalIDforallpeopleby2030aspartofitsSustainableDevelopmentGoals,soit’snosurprisegovernmentsaroundtheworldarebeginningtomakedigitalidentityatoppriority.56Asoneofthefirstdigitalidentityadopters,Estoniahas98%ofitscitizensregisteredwithitselectronicidentitysystem(e-ID)thatisusedforpublicserviceslikevoting,healthinsurance,taxes,andmore.57India’sAadhaar,witha93%adoptionrate,tiesbiometricinformationtoa12-digitpinandhasbeenusedforofflineandonlinepurposeslikeCOVID-19vaccinationsandcontacttracing,aswellasbankingandfinancialservices—anditisnowbeingadoptedbySriLankatoo.58,59,60,61,62AndtheEuropeanUnionplanstorolloutadigitalidentitysystemin2023.63Soonenough,itwon’tjustbeearlyadopterscreatingdigitalidentities.Businessesmaysoonberequiredtodosotointegratewithstate-levelprograms.Digitalidentitymaynotbeasignificantpartofyourinnovationagendatoday—butitneedstobe.Theimperativeistwo-fold:whilethereisopportunitytoexplore,findvalue,andinnovatearounddigitalidentityrightnow,thereisalsoaspeedingtorrentofchangecomingthatwillinevitablyshapewhatallbusinessescando,andhowtheydoit,acrosstheweb.Somewillexperimentwiththeirowndigitalidentityprojects.Otherswillinvestigateandprepareforhowchangestodigitalidentitywilldemandbusinesstransformation.Andforeveryone,regulationsaresuretocome,sothelastthingyouwantistobecaughtoffguardandleftbehind.It’stimetostopoverlookingdigitalidentity.Letitcatalyzeyourfuture.Digitalidentitymaynotbeasignificantpartofyourinnovationagendatoday—butitneedstobe.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier29#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThetechnologyTheemergenceofnewdigitalidentitysolutionsisbothopeningthedoortonewformsofvaluecreationandchallengingenterprisesofallsizesandindustriestorethinkhowidentityisusedacrosstheorganization.Graspingthesignificanceofthistrendiskeytorecognizingtheopportunitythatliesahead.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier30#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsTostart,ithelpstoconsidertwobasiccategoriesofidentity:Thefirstiscoreidentity,ortheprimaryidentifierofwhoorwhatsomethingis.Thesearecreatedforgeneralpurpose,likeanationalIDorlegalnameloggedinaregistry.Thesecondcategoryisfunctionalidentity,whichiscreatedforaspecificpurposetoconveycertaincharacteristicsordataaboutaparticularthing—likethewayadriver’slicensenumberiscreatedtoconveysomeoneislegallyalloweddrive,orthewayinternetcookiesareusedtomanagesessionsandyouractivitywhentraversingtheweb.Ofcourse,internetcookiesand(insomecountries)driver’slicensesaren’tusedexclusivelyforthosededicatedpurposes.Inpractice,alltoooftenwetakefunctionalpiecesofinformationintendedforaspecificpurposeand,inlieuofabetteroption,usethemascoreidentity.Considerwhatishappeningtophonenumbers.Mobilephonenumbersareafunctionalpieceofcontactinformation.Yet,ourphonenumbershaveincreasinglybecomethegatewaytoourdigitallives,suchthattheyarebeingusedlikecoreidentifiers.Whenourbank,work,orsocialappswantustoprovewhoweare,whatdotheydo?Sendusatextmessage.We’vetakenanumberwesharepublicly,forthosewhowanttocommunicatewithus,andturneditintoproofofwhoweare—andnowwearestartingtoseetheconsequences.InonetypeofattackcalledSIM-swapping,hackersusesocialengineeringtacticstoconvincemobilecarrierstore-routeatarget’sphonetraffictoanewSIMcard.Atthatpoint,anymessages,calls,orverificationcodessenttothetargetnumberarereceivedbytheattackerinstead.In2021,theFBIlogged1,611oftheseattacks—thiswas5xgrowthoverthepreviousthreeyearscombinedandamountedtoanastounding$42,000inaveragedamagesperattack.64Atthispoint,ifahackerhasyourphonenumber,theymayaswellbeyou.Digitally,weseethishappenallthetimebecausetheinternetwasnotbuiltwithcoreidentityinmind.Theentireecosystemhasbecomeoverlyreliantonleveragingfunctionaldata,likeemailaddressesorsociallogins,toaccessservicesoridentifypeopleacrosstheweb.Butnowthelegacyofneverhavingbuiltasystemforcoredigitalidentityiscatchingupofglobalexecutivesagreeissueswithauthenticatingcustomers’identityarenegativelyimpactingtheirbottomline(e.g.,abandonedtransactions,customerfrustration,fraud).76%IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier31#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitswithus,openingthedoortofraudandfracturedexperiences.Arecentstudyshowedthatoverhalfofconsumershaveabandonedapurchaseorbookingonlinebecausetheyforgottheirpasswordandretrievingitwouldtaketoolong.65Invalidtraffic(thetrafficcomprisedofbotsandfakeusers)accountsfor40%ofallwebtraffic,whichisamajorissueforsecurityandmarketingteams.66Andadfraud,includingclickfraud(wheninvalidtrafficengagesanonlinead),iscostingbusinessesbetween$35-40billiondollarsannually,surpassinglossesfromglobalcreditcardfraud.67Asthesignificanceofourdigitalliveshasgrown,theproblemshaveonlybecomemoreacute.Forinstance,customersmayinadvertentlyusemultipleemailaddressesforasingleservice,andbarringanonerousreconciliationprocess,thismeansmultipleprofilesforthesamecustomerorvendormayexist,leadingtobillingissues,frustrationwithloyaltyprograms,problemsprocessingreturnsanddeliveries,andmore.Inessence,theabsenceofstrongcoredigitalidentityhasbecomeanartificiallimitonwhatwecandowithtechnology,aswellasadownsidetobusiness.Thisiswhydigitalidentityisattractingsuchsignificantinvestment.Atatimewhenwearereimaginingtherelationshipbetweenourdigitalandphysicallives,wewanttoavoidthemistakesofthepast.Leadinginnovatorsarecreatingthisbaselayerofidentitythathaslongbeenmissingandforgingsolutionsthatwillbecomenothingshortofournewon-ramptotheweb.Atatimewhenwearereimaginingtherelationshipbetweenourdigitalandphysicallives,wewanttoavoidthemistakesofthepast.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier32#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsAlready,digitally-borncoreidentitiesarestartingtoemerge.Unsurprisingly,manyofthebiggesteffortsarespearheadedbygovernments,thoughthereareanumberofpublic-privatepartnershipsandgrassrootseffortsaswell.It’sacomplicatedlandscape,buteveryenterpriseneedstotakenoteoftheseevolutionsastheywillquicklybecomeaprimarywaytoengagecustomers.Thebestwaytomakesenseoftheseeffortsistolookatthemacrossaspectrumofcentralizedtodecentralized,eachwithadvantagesanddisadvantages.TheModularOpenSourceIdentityPlatform(MOSIP)isanexampleofacentralizedeffort.ItisbasedoffIndia’sAadhaarsystem,butiscompletelyopensourceandmodular,meanttofitvariouscountries’requirements.Governmentscanleveragethecodeasastartingpointtobuilddigitalidentitysystemswhichtheythenhavecompletecontrolover.MOSIPisintendedtohelpcountries—particularlyinregionswherephysicalinstitutionsareweak(orlackingentirely)—fasttrackintothedigitalerabyimplementingidentitycapabilitiesbuiltdigitallyfromthegroundup.ItiscurrentlybeingusedinEthiopiaandthePhilippines,andthereisaplannedinter-countryeffortacrossWestAfricatoo.68,69Centralizedeffortstendtobeeasiertodeployandtobuildforpurpose,andforthosereasonsmaycometodominatemuchofthecoreidentityecosystem.However,aswithanycentralizedsystem,challengesincludeconcernsoverasinglepointoffailureandprivacyfearsoverwhocontrolsthecentralizedplatform.Theother,increasinglypopular,approachtocoreidentityhasbeentocreatedecentralized,ordistributed,platforms.Theseefforts,sometimesknownasSelf-SovereignIdentity(SSI),arebasedonblockchainanddistributedledgertechnology,soratherthanonecentralauthority,theyrelyonconsensusmechanismsfrommultiplepartiestovalidateidentity.Inlate2022,theWorldWideWebConsortium(W3C)publishedaspecificationforofexecutivesreporttheirorganizations’preferredstrategyleanstowardcentralizedsolutions,and54%aspartnership-ledsolutions,toaddresschallengesfacedbythelackofstandardizeddigitalidentity.79%Coredigitalidentity:centralizedvs.decentralizedIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier33#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsDecentralizedID(DID),signifyinganimportantstepforwardfordecentralizedidentityefforts.70Alsoinfall2022,theLinuxFoundationannouncedtheOpenWalletFoundation(OWF).Insteadofpublishingidentitycredentialsorstandards,OWFwantstocreateopen-sourcesoftwarethatwilldemocratizetheprocess,allowinganyorganizationtodeveloptheirowndigitalwallet.71Earlyeffortsarealreadydemonstratinghowdecentralizedcoreidentitiescouldradicallytransformourexperiencesontheweb.Forexample,Microsoft’sIONisanidentificationservicethatrunsontheBitcoinnetwork.UsersofIONcanreplaceemailandpasswordloginswithauniqueidentifierauthenticatedbyblockchain.72Anyotherpersonaldataexistsoff-chain,makingthispurelyacoreidentitysolution.AndWeb3wallets,likeMetaMaskandTrustWallet,areincreasinglybeingpositionedascoreIDsaswell.Theyprovideuserswithauniquenon-custodialID(theindividualholdstheprivatekeytotheID),whichcanbeusedtoaccessawholeslewofnext-generationdigitalservices,likestoringNFTs,transferringcryptocurrency,orinteractingwithdistributedapps(dApps).73Theadvantagestodistributedapproachesareenhancedsafety,security,andtrust—butthenatureofdecentralizationleavesthingshardertobuildforpurpose.Usability,interoperability,andfearsoveraccountrecoveryarechallengesthatcanenduphurtingadoption.Importantlythough,enterprisesdon’thavetowaitfortomorrow’sstandardsorappstostartbenefitingfromthistechnology.ThegovernmentofBritishColumbia(BC)builtOrgBookBC,ablockchain-basedpubliclysearchabledirectoryforthe1.4millionorganizationsregisteredintheprovince.74Countrywideeveryyear,CanadiancompanieswasteanestimatedC$10billiononadministrativeredtape,likevettingpermits.75Now,withOrgBook,auniquedigitalidentityiscreatedforeveryregisteredbusinessinBC,whichisthenassociatedwiththevariouslicensesandpermitsthebusinesshasqualifiedfor.ThisallowsOrgBookBC’spublic-facingwebsitetoautomaticallyvalidateacompany’sIDandcredentialsagainsttheblockchaineverytimeitsnameappearsinasearch,providingusersatrustedrecordofcompanies’registrationstatusandselectedlicensesandpermits.Asitstands,thecoreidentityecosystemismessy—atestamenttotherapidinnovationhappeningtoday.Buttheamountofchangebubblingbeneaththesurfaceisenoughthateveryenterpriseshouldtakenote.Fromlargestate-ledprojectstonovelmethodsofauthentication,howenterprisesengagepeople—whethercustomeroremployee—isstartingtochangeonafoundationallevel.What’smore,whilethatalonewouldbeenoughtore-engineersystems,anevenbiggerchangeisyettocome:howtheuseofthoseidentitiesisstartingtoevolve.Earlyeffortsarealreadydemonstratinghowdecentralizedcoreidentitiescouldradicallytransformourexperiencesontheweb.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier34#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsTheimplicationsParalleltothewellspringofefforttointroducecoredigitalidentityisanequallylargepushtorethinkthefunctionofthoseidentities:howwecreateandassociatedataaboutthoseidentities,howthatdataissharedandmanaged,andthebalanceofownershipacrosstheecosystem.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier35#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsEachneweffortforcoredigitalidentityislikeastonecastintowater,andtheunderlyingchangestothedataecosystemaretherippling,lingeringresults—andthisiswheretherealopportunitybegins.Todaythesechangesarejuststartingtomanifest,soleadershaveachancetopullahead,leadtheircompetitors,andshapewhatcomesnext.Butnewformsofdigitalidentityandthesubsequentdataparadigmsaregrowinginpopularitybytheday,soleftunaddressed,businessesleaderswillquicklyfindthemselvesracingtocatchuptoafuturetheyareunpreparedandill-equippedtoengagewith.Already,someareexperimentingwithhowdigitalidentitiesallowthemtoapproachdatadifferently,devisingandexecutingnewstrategiesthatleanintothenovelcapabilitiesthetechnologypresents.TakeStarbucks,whichisexploringhowdigitalwalletscantransformtheirloyaltyprogramwithanewNFTeffortcalledStarbucksOdyssey.BasedWhileStarbucksismoreofacontainedecosystemfornow,Permission.ioislookingtointroduceasimilarparadigmacrosstheweb.Permission.ioallowsadvertiserstoallocateadedicatedamountofthecompany’scryptocurrency($ASK)toagivenadcampaign.78Consumerscanthenearnvaryingamountsofthecurrencybyoptingintodatasharingorengagingwithcontent.Consumershavethefreedomtodowhattheywantwiththeirearnedcurrency—eitherholdit,sellitonanopenexchange,orbeimmediatelyrewardedbytradingitinonPermission.io’swebsiteforgiftcardstomajorbrandslikeDomino’sPizzaandNordstrom.79WhereasStarbucksallowsconsumerstoownashareintheirloyalty,Permission.iogivesconsumersanewabilitytoowntheirdataandattention.onaproof-of-stakeblockchainbuiltbyPolygon,Starbuckscustomerswillbeabletocollectuniquetokens,storethemindigitalwallets,andexchangethemforbenefitslikevirtualclasses,uniquemerchandise,oratriptooneofthecompany’scoffeefarms.76Thecustomerownstheirtokensoutright,soiftheydon’twantoneofthebenefits,theyarefreetosellitonOdyssey’sopenmarketplacetoanothercustomer.Ittransformsthestandardloyaltyprogramintoacommunityinwhichthecustomerisalsoastakeholderandhasmuchmorecontroloverwhattheyown.Starbucksknowsitspilotisexperimentalbutbelievesit’sanimportantfirststepto“[potentially]createanexpanded,shared-ownershipmodelforloyalty”—andtobuilduponinfuturecollaborationsaswell.77IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier36#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsPermission.ioandStarbucksareleveragingtokenization,oneoftheleadingwaysenterprisesarestartingtoinnovatearoundidentity.Tokenizationistheprocessoftakinga“thing”andcreatinganassociateddigitalasset,oftenstoredonablockchain.Importantly,theseexamplesalsoshowhowidentityinnovationisn’tlimitedtopeople.StarbucksandPermission.ioaretokenizingloyaltyandattention.The“thing”canbeanyassetfromashippingcontainertoapieceofartorfinancialsecurities.Inessence,tokenizationistheprocessofcreatinganimmutable,functionalidentityforanything:physical,digital,unique,ornot.Andoncethoseidentitiesarecreated,enterprisescanstarttotransformwhattheydowiththem.UnileverandSAPareusingablockchainsystemwheretokensarecreatedatthesourceforbatchesofpalmoil.80ThetokensallowUnilevertotracespecificcropsthroughtheirsupplychainandconnectthemdirectlybacktothefarmstheyweresourcedfrom.TheIndustrialandCommercialBankofChina(ICBC)createdIcago,atokenizationsystemthatallowspublictransitoperatorstoissueNFT“carboncredits”toriders,whocanthenexchangethosetokensforChina’scentralbankdigitalcurrency.81AndGoldmanSachsisbuildinganend-to-endtokenizationsolutionforassetsinitsportfolio.82What’sclearisthatthedisruptiveimpactofthesechangestodigitalidentityisgoingtobehuge:itisbringingforwardanewparadigmfordataandownership.Andsoonenough,itwon’tjustbeleaderscapitalizingonearlyopportunitiesandupsides—everybusinesswillbeforcedtothinkaboutidentityanddatadifferently.Tokenizationistheprocessoftakinga“thing”andcreatinganassociateddigitalasset,oftenstoredonablockchain.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier37#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsInearly2021,AppleintroducedanumberofprivacychangestoiOSthatturnedallthird-partyapptrackinganddatasharingintoanopt-inexperience;by2022,onaverageonly25%ofusersopted-intoapptracking.83,84AndGoogleintendstokillcookietrackinginitsChromebrowser.85It’snewplannedsystem,calledTopics,willcategorizeactivityinto350predeterminedgeneral“topics.”86Everyweekusers’topfive“topics”plusanadditionalrandomizedsixthtopicwillbecalculatedandstoredbyChrome—andonlyarandomsubsetwillbesharedwiththirdparties.87Afterthreeweeksthetopicsrefresh,andnohistoryofpasttopicsissavedorstored.Andifthereisskepticismaroundhowmuchenterpriseswilldrivethistrendforward,regulatorsaren’tfarbehindthem.Gartnerpredictsthatby2024,75%oftheglobalpopulationwillhaveitspersonaldatacoveredunderprivacyregulations.88Statedbluntly,bynochoiceoftheirown,enterprisesmaynolongerhaveaccesstothedatathey’reusedtohaving.Thethirdpartyandconsumerdatatheycurrentlyrelyonisstartingtodisappear,andwithnopreparationtorotatetothenewmodels,thetrickledowneffectcouldbemassive.Itiscrucialthatenterpriseleadersunderstandtheinflectionpointdigitalidentityisinrightnow:itisnotjustthatnewdoorsofopportunityarebeingopened,butmanyoftheoldonesthatenterprisesrelyanddependonarestartingtoclose.Whilethesechangesareoftenwelcomedbyconsumers,enterprisesareunderstandablynervous.69%ofU.S.marketersbelievetheeliminationofthird-partytrackingwillhaveagreaterimpactthanGDPR.89AndGDPRleftbusinessesscramblingtocomply.WhiledatacollectionandusewaslargelyaCIOactivitybefore,GDPRrequirementsforexplaininghowdatawasused,usercontrolrequirements,anddownstreamdatasharingquicklyropedeverypartofthebusinessintothediscussion.90Failuretocomplyhasbeenmetwithsteepfines—andnotjusttotechcompanies,buttohotelchainsandairlinesaswell.91Inshort,GDPRchangedtheriskproposition,guardrails,andrequirementsforhowenterprisesaroundtheworldusedata—andsubsequently,howtheyinnovate.WithdigitalidentitypoisedtobeadeeperandmoreseismicshiftthanGDPR,enterprisesneedtostartpreparingwiththesameurgency.Thisiswhyexperimentingwithnewformsofidentity,digitalwallets,andtokenizationisn’tallaboutchasingupside—it’saboutexploringandpreparingforthepivottomorrowwillrequire.Onyx,anidentitysolutionbeingdevelopedbyJPMorgan,forinstance,couldbeusedasawaytocredentialpeopleacrossthemetaverse,Web3,anddecentralizedfinance.92ThesolutionwillallowpeopletobinddigitalassetstoadecentralizedIDandthenpickandchoosewhichdatatheywanttosharetoaccessservicesacrossItiscrucialthatenterpriseleadersunderstandtheinflectionpointdigitalidentityisinrightnow.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier38#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitstheweb—suchasoptingtouseone’screditscoretoleveragea“buynow,paylater”option.93Whilethesolutionisstillindevelopment,theunderlyingtakeawayisthatoneofthelargestinvestmentbanksintheworld,accustomedtohavingdeepaccesstocustomerdata,isenvisioning(andbuilding!)aworldwherecustomersdecidewhatdatabusinesseshaveaccesstoandwhen.Asweshifttowardsaconsent-andvalue-baseddataecosystem,ratherthanthetrackandsurveilonethatexiststoday,businessesneedtobepreparedfordisruptionstotheirdatapipeline.Exploringtomorrow’ssolutionswillhelpenterprisesnavigatethosedisruptions,butthetechnologyaloneisonlyhalfthesolution.Enterpriseleadersneedtobeaskingthemselves:Howwillwegain—andearntherighttomaintain—accesstoaperson’sdata,whentheyaretheoneswhoownit?WithdigitalidentitypoisedtobeadeeperandmoreseismicshiftthanGDPR,enterprisesneedtostartpreparingwiththesameurgency.39#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits39ThebottomlineCoreidentities,biometrics,tokenization,andotheremergenttechnologiesarebeginningtoalleviatedigitalidentity’spastshortcomings—butwillalsochallengebusinessesinwaystheyareunpreparedfor,likeshiftingaccesstocriticaldataandneedingtointegratenewtechnologies.Buttheenterprisesthatrisetothechallengeandshapethefutureofdigitalidentitywillenjoyenhancedsecurityandresiliencetochangesinthewidermarketplaceandbuildrenewedconfidencewiththeircustomersandpartners.Mostimportantly,theywillhaveaheadstartonthefuture—andpushuseverclosertoabetterweb,andabetterworld.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier40#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits#TechVisionAftercoffeewithAlexandBen,Miriamdecidestowalktowork.Hercompany’sofficeisonly20minutesaway,butbeforelongshe’slightheaded,shortofbreath,andfeelsasharppaininherchest.Panicking,shecallsanambulance.Miriam’scallautomaticallytriggersanapponherphone,whichgrantsemergencyservicesaccesstohermedicalrecords.Whenparamedicsarriveafewminuteslater,they’vealreadycheckedherallergyandmedicalhistory,andgiveherashottoeaseherbreathing.Onceittakeseffect,theparamedicinchargeupdateshermedicationhistoryandsignswithathumbprint.Then,theiraccesstoherrecordsends.Later,Miriam’sdoctorwantstodigdeeperintotheissue,soMiriamusesherappagaintograntthedoctoraccesstoherrecords—specificallyhealthAdayinournewreality:Miriamandfitnesswearablesdata.Usingthisinformation,aswellascity-wideairqualitydata,thedoctorseesthatspikesinMiriam’sheartrateandbloodpressurearecorrelatedwithupticksinpollution.She’sdiagnosedwithsevereenvironmentalasthmaandrecommendedforanexperimentaldrugtrial.Aspartofthetrial,she’llrecordthefrequencyofherasthmaattacksandheradherencetothedrugregimeninherapp.Theinformationwillbeanonymized,andthenuploadedtoapublicdatabaseforresearchersanddoctorstoanalyze.Somedaywhenthestudyconcludesandhertestgroupisrevealed,theappwillautomaticallyupdatesohermedicalhistoryisalwayscomplete.TechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits40IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier41#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsWhytransparencywillbecomeyourmostpreciousresourceYourdata,mydata,ourdataTechnologyVision202341IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier42#TechVisionJapaneseclockcompanyYamasacreatesthefirstcommerciallyavailablepedometer(Manpo-kei)941965KelleyBlueBookpublishesthefirstNewCarPriceManual951966NASAlaunchesthefirstsatelliteoftheLandsatProgram,anefforttodocumenttheentireEarthfromspace961972Yelprevampsitswebsiteandallowsuserstostartsharingreviewsofbusiness972005Anestimated161exabytesofdataarecreatedthisyear982006Glassdoorlaunchesitspublicbetaversion,offeringtransparencyintosalarydataandemployeesentiment992008Anestimated2zettabytesofdataarecreatedthisyear1002010ZhamakDehghaniintroducestheideaofaDataMesh,anewenterprisedataarchitecture1022019TheU.S.CongresspassestheOPENGovernmentDataActrequiringfederalagenciestopublishtheirdataandmetadatainanopen,standardizedandmachine-readableformat1012018Anestimated64.2zettabytesofdataarecreatedthisyear1042020680financialinstitutionssendletterstotheboardsof10,400companies,askingthemtodiscloseenvironmentalimpactdata1062022Snowflake,aclouddatawarehousingcompany,goespublic,raising$3.4BinthelargestsoftwareIPOever1032020NasdaqbeginsrequiringcompanieslistedonitsU.S.exchangetopublishthediversitymetricsoftheirboards1072022Theamountofdatacreatedthisyearincreases150xover2022numbers2027Californiarequiresnewcommercialbuildingstoputtemperaturesensorsineachroomandreportaggregatedata2025AcitizenhackinggrouppublishesthesalaryandDEIinformationofmostFortune500companies2026Atelecomcompanydemonstratestheabilitytowirelesslytransmit1terabyteofdatapersecond2028TheEuropeanSpaceAgency(ESA)unveilsnewtechnologythattracksallorbitalobjectsanddeterminesownership.ESAplanstofineownersofobjectsthatviolatedeorbitinglaws2030Anationalgrocerychainisabletofacilitate1-dayrecallsforproducethankstotheirsupply-chain-widetraceabilityprogram2031Theamountofdatacreatedthisyearincreases300xover2027numbers2032Anewrecordissetforthemostsuccessfulorbitallaunchesinayear–1351052021TimelineYourdata,mydata,ourdata#TechVision42IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier43#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThebigpictureInthenot-so-distantpastwhenyouweredecidingwheretoeat,youmightrelyonword-of-mouthortheoccasionalexpertguide.Thenin2005,Yelpchangedeverything.108WorkinprogressIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier44#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThecompanycreatedadigitalserviceforcustomerstosharereviewsofbusinesses—whichisnowago-towebsiteforfoodies,basedonmillionsofrestaurantratingsandreviewsfromfellowdiners.Itwasanindustry-alteringmove.Yelpchangedhowpeoplefindrestaurants,howrestaurateursgetpublicity,andhowcustomersvoicetheirexperiencesatrestaurantsandotherbusinessestoo.Researchshowsthatarestaurantcanincreaseitsrevenueby5%to9%ifitsYelpratinggoesupbyonestar—andevenahalf-starbumpcanhelparestaurantsellout49%morefrequently.109,110Andit’sallbasedondatathatwasalreadyoutthere—customersalwayshadopinions,theyjustweren’trecordedormadeaccessibletothisdegreebefore.WhatYelpdidiscreatea“windowoftransparency”—aclear,detailed,andexpansiveviewintoapieceoftheworldaroundus.Beyondpuredata,thesewindowscanproviderealinsightsintobusinessprocesses,consumers,marketshifts,investments,corporateleaders,andentireindustries.Andtoday,they’reshakingupmorethanjustdinnerplans.Asbusinessesandgovernmentsaroundtheworldcontinuetoinvestindigitaltransformation,thesewindowsarepoppingupeverywhere.Lookattheairlineindustry.Foryears,industry-widedataonflyingwasscattered.ButCirium,anaviation-datamarketplace,figuredtransparencycouldimprovethewaytheindustryisrun.Thecompanynowquantifiesandaggregatesaviationdatafrom97%ofscheduledflightsworldwide,socustomerscantrackanaircraft’susageandpartwear,seereal-timeflightschedulesofabout880airlines,andevenfindaspecificflight’sCO2emissions.111,112,113Similarly,duetocountlessshippers,forwardingagents,andtransportationcompaniesbehindthescenes,thefreightindustryhaslongstruggledwithblack-boxcostsandpricevolatility.ButthecompanyXenetatackledthisproblembyaggregatingmillionsofdatapointsonoceanandairfreightratesaswellasshippinglanes.Xenetatodayanalyzesmorethan300millionfreightrates,160,000port-to-portlanes,and40,000airport-to-airportconnections.114Itusesthatdatatodefinebenchmarkratesatmarketvalueandsharesthoseratesonitsplatform.Overchargingiseasiertospotandstopasaresult.AssociatedIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier45#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsBritishFoods,forexample,usedXeneta’sbenchmarkratestonegotiatea30%decreaseintheirshippingspending.115Withaclearwindowintotheindustry—onethatanyonecanseethrough—stakeholderscanleveragethisinformationtomaketheiroperationsmoreefficient.Sowhyisthisleveloftransparencyonlycomingtofreight,aviation,andotherindustriesnow,whenYelphasbeenfunctioningformanyyears?Itcomesdowntomaturingdigitalstrategiesandhowthey’vechangedthewaypeopleandenterprisesthinkaboutdata.Asbusinessesbuiltrobustdatapractices,theydrovemajorshiftsinthedataecosystem,fromtheskyrocketingvolumeofdatatotransformationsinhowdatacanbesharedandmanaged.Subsequently,enterprisestodayhavemorepreciseinsightintotheiroperationsthaneverbefore.Butthat’snotall.Astheappetitefordatagrows,it’salsochanging.Now,it’snotjustbusinesseslookingforthislevelofinformation,it’severyone:governments,consumers,employees,shareholders,watchdoggroups,businesspartners,media,evencuriousindividuals.ofglobalexecutivesagreedatatransparencyisbecomingacompetitivedifferentiatorfortheirorganizations.90%Insuccessfullycreatinggreaterlinesofsightintotheirbusiness,companieshavecreatedanewexpectation:Peoplebelievethatthisdataexists(orshouldexist),andtheywanttoseeittoo.Frominformationaboutsourcingtoclimateimpact,salaries,diversityhiring,andmore,wehaveshiftedfromaninformationenvironmentthatacceptsopacitytoonethatexpectstransparency.Forexample,whenitcomestomakinggrocerychoices,onereportfoundtwo-thirdsofshopperswouldswitchfromtheirusualbrandtoonethatprovidesdeeperinformationaboutproducts.116Anotherstudyfoundthat60%ofpeopleshoppingforclotheswantmoreinformationabouthowtheirclothesareproducedsotheycanmakemoreethicalpurchasingdecisions.117Andthistrendisn’trestrictedtoconsumers—thedemandisbeingdrivenbyallmannerofstakeholdersinanenterprise’secosystem.Theyarenolongerwonderingifenterpriseshavethedatatheywant,it’sanassumptionthattheydo.We’removingfromthehistoricrealitywheredatawasscarce(andoftenaproprietarysecret)toanewrealitywheredataisbeingsystematicallyquantifiedIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier46#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsandmadeavailable—anditputsenterprisesinanumberofdifficultpositions.First,mostcorporatedataarchitecturesaren’tbuilttohandlethisleveloftransparency.Evenasmanyhavebuiltoutdatastrategies,theyarestillnotfullytappingintothedataattheirfingertips.Considerthis:theworldisbeingquantifiedatahistoricandacceleratingrate.47zettabytesofdatawerecreatedin2020alone—andby2035,itispredictedthat2,142zettabytesofdatawillbecreatedeachyear.118,119AndthenumberofconnectedIoTdevicesworldwideisexpectedtoreach27billionby2025.120Beforecompaniescaneventhinkaboutturningtransparencyintoaresource,theyneedtobepreparedtohandlethisquantityofdataandmanageitresponsibly.Second,evenifyourdataarchitectureisleadingedge,yourstrategiesinaworldofplentifuldataneedtochangetoo.It’snotenoughjusttohavethedata,yourcompanyneedstobeabletoassessthequalityandintegrityofit,aswellasactonandsharetheinsightsitfinds.Liketheaviationandfreightexamplesdemonstrated,transparencycanbringenterprisesbigadvantages.ItcanofferindustriesBeforecompaniescaneventhinkaboutturningtransparencyintoaresource,theyneedtobepreparedtohandlethisquantityofdataandmanageitresponsibly.growth,optimization,andefficiency.Itcanalsobolsteranenterprise’soperations,improvecustomerexperiences,andbuildatrustedreputationbydrivingaccountabilitytovalueslikefairnessandsustainability.TheSwedishfootwearbrandIcebugillustrateshowgivingcustomersmoreinformationcandriveloyaltyandprofits.Customerconsciousnesshasbeenamajorfactorinpurchasingdecisions—infact,66%ofcustomerswanteco-friendlyproducts.121Icebugrecognizedthatfootwearmakesup2%ofglobalcarbonemissions,sotheybetthatpublishingsustainabilityinformationwouldmakecustomershappier,ultimatelyboostingsales.122ThebrandpartneredwithfashiontraceabilityfirmTrusTracetocollect,store,andanalyzesustainabilitymetrics,suchasthepercentageofrecycledmaterialusedinashoe.Icebugmadethosefigurespubliconthebrand’swebsiteandinretailshops,andayearlater,sawa37.8%increaseinitsannualnetprofit.123IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier47#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsSpotifydemonstratesanotherwaytoattractcustomersthroughinformationsharing.Firstintroducedin2016,SpotifyWrappedisapersonalizedsummaryofthemusic,artists,podcasts,andgenresthatauserlistenedtointhepastyear.124Bypackagingandpresentingpersonalizeddatafromanindividualuserbacktothem,itnotonlyallowsuserstoreflectontheyearandlearnabouttheirlisteninghabits,butitisalsodesignedtobesharedonsocialmedia,sparkingengagementandsurfacingcontent—withSpotifyatthecenter.In2021,SpotifyWrappedreceivedmentionsin1.2millionTwitterposts,andduringtheweekofitscampaign,downloadsofSpotify’smobileappincreased21%.Lastly,you’llneedtoupdateyourbrandingstrategy,becauseoncethiskindofdataexistsyoucan’tassumethatitwon’tgetouttothepublic.Skeptical?Mostcompaniesdon’tpublishsalaryinformation,butyoucanfinditonGlassdoor.WanttoknowwhothebiggestCO2emittersare?CheckouttheUniversityofMassachusetts’sGreenhouse100PollutersIndex.Increasingly,whencompaniesdonottakethehelm,gatheringandsharinginformationwithinaswellasbeyondtheirwalls,thirdpartiescanandwillmeetthatdemandfirst.Thisisageneration-definingmoment.Wearebeginningabusinesseradrivenbytransparencyratherthanopacity.Enterprisesareattheforefrontofchangesradicallyreshapingtheworld,andbeingaleaderinthisnexterawilldependontrust—makingtransparencyyourmostpreciousresource.Yettosucceed,yourcompany’sdatastrategy—howyoucreateandcollect,manage,anduseyourdata—likelyneedsareboot.You’llneedtolookatyourentiredatalifecycle,rethinkingwhatdatayoucollectandhowyoucollectit,lookingatyourdatamanagementapproachandhowitmightfallshort,andreassessinghowyouusedata,whohasaccesstoit,andwhatbusinessfunctionsyouwantfromit.It’sabigundertaking,butthebenefitsthatcanbegainedaretoobigtopassup.Wearebeginningabusinesseradrivenbytransparency,ratherthanopacity.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier48#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThetechnologyTheexpectationsaroundtransparencytodayareadirectfunctionofthetechnologythathasbecomeaninextricablepartofourworld.Toturntransparencyintoastrategicadvantage,enterpriseleadersfirstneedtounderstandthetechnologyshapingit,andwhytheconditionsdemandingtransparencywillonlyacceleratemovingforward.Then,theyneedtodesignthedatastrategiesthatwillletthemgenerate,manage,andsharetheirowndatawithease.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier49#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsBackin2013,Targetmadewhatwas,atthetime,consideredanincrediblyboldmove.Thecompanybecameoneofthefirstretailerstoannounceayear-roundpricematchingpolicythatincludedpricingfoundonpopulare-commercesites.125Targetadoptedthispolicybecausetheyweregrapplingwitha“windowoftransparency.”Customerswerecomingintothecompany’sstores,tryingoutandfallinginlovewithaproduct,onlytopulluptheirsmartphoneandfindanonlineretailerwithacheaperprice.Shoppershadnearlyperfectinformation,instantlyattainableattheirfingertips,andsotheyactedonit.Whilepricematchingintheretailindustryisoldnews,whatitteachesusismorerelevanttodaythanever:theconditionsfortransparencyallcomedowntodataandconnectivity.InTarget’scase,whatdrovethemtoactwasacombinationofpricinginformationfromonlinecompetitors(anewdatasource)andfrictionlessaccesstothatdataviatheirsmartphones(connectivity).Today,weareseeingarapidaccelerationofbothnewtypesofdataandourabilitytotransmitandaccessthemwithunprecedentedspeed.Thisconfluenceiscreatingincredibleopportunityfor“windowsoftransparency”toopen,givingenterprisesastarkchoice:getaheadnoworriskmissingout.Worldwide,thesupplyofdataisgrowingfast.Muchofitisbeinggeneratedonline—inthepastyeartheinternethad5.07billionuserstotal,withanaverageof6.5hoursspentonlineaday.126However,thecontributorthatisperhapsmostinfluentialontransparencyishowadvancesinsensingtechnologyaregeneratingnewtypes,andenhancedfidelity,ofdataaboutourphysicalworld.Fromourhealthtoourhome,sensingtechnologiesincreasinglyplayanintegralroleinourdailylives.ThenewAppleWatchcancalculatesleepcyclesdowntotheminuteandtrackheartbeatirregularities.127AndinSweden,researchersbuiltalow-costnano-sensorthatcandetectpesticidesonfruitinamatterofminutes.128Whileeachofthesenewsensorsoperatesonasmallscale,theygiveclear,quantifiablelinesofsightintoincreasinglylargersystems.Oneresearcheffortdemonstratedhowalow-costmicrosensorcanrecognizeandlocatethedistinctsoundofaleakywaterpipewith100%accuracy.129ScientistsattheButdataaloneisn’tenough.Theavailabilityofthatdataiskey.That’swherecommunicationstechnologiescomeintoplay.BuildingtheconditionsfortransparencyIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier50#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsUniversityofWashingtoncreatedaself-poweringsensorthatcanfloatintheairlikeadandelionseedandmeasurethetemperature,humidity,andotherdetailsofthesurroundingenvironment.130AndClimateTraceuses300satellitesandover11,100sensorstotrackcarbonemissionsacrossglobalindustrialsectorsorevenatasinglepowerplant.131Asthecostofsensorsdropsandtheircapabilitiesgrow,weareenteringatimewithextremelypreciseandexpansiveinformationaboutourbodies,environments,andworld.Whenenterprisesthinkaboutgeneratingandpullingbackthecurtainonthisdata,itcanbeusedtodisruptiveeffect.TakePlanetLabs.Everyday,satellitesfromPlanetLabscapture300millionsquarekilometersofimagesfromspaceata3.7-meterresolution—aclaritysohighthatthenakedeyecanseeindividualanimals.132,133ThecompanypartneredwithKingAbdullahUniversityinSaudiArabiatocapturedaily,cloud-freeimagesfromspaceofaNebraskacornfield.Theimagesshowedthecrops’health,whichhelpedfarmstailorfieldirrigation,andbetterpredictcropyields.134,135Butdataaloneisn’tenough.Theavailabilityofthatdataiskey.That’swherecommunicationstechnologiescomeintoplay.Inadditiontodatavolumesgrowing,weareseeingtheabilitytotransmitdatagrowdramatically—overlongdistances,toplacespreviouslyunconnected,andinnearlyreal-time.Forexample,T-Mobilehasbeenbuildingouta5Gnetworkandtheyarethinkingbiggerthanconnectivityjustforphones.ThecompanypartneredwithPanoAIandPortlandGeneralElectrictodeploy5G-connectedcamerasinremote,wildfirevulnerableareas.PanoAIplaceditsartificialintelligenceenabledcamerasinrurallocations,thenusedT-Mobile’s5Gnetworktoquicklytransmitthedata.136Thisletsusersaccessreal-timeobservationsanddata—andhasresultedinusersreportingfireswhentheystartandenablingauthoritiestorespondmorequickly.Andnow,T-MobileandSpaceXhavealsoannouncedapartnershiptouseStarlink’ssatelliteconstellationwiththegoalofprovidingnearcompletecoverageintheU.S.—eveninremotelocationspreviouslyunreachablebytraditionalcellsignals.137IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier51#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsManagingthedatadelugeDataandconnectivitygeneratetheconditionsfortransparency—buttheydon’tguaranteeenterprises’abilitytomanageit.InaJune2022study,“EvolveYourDataPracticesToStayAheadOfTheCompetition,”Forresterfoundthat79%ofenterprisedecision-makersbelievedtheirenterprisestrugglesto“takeinsight-drivenactioninrealtime.”138Anunderlyingissueisthatdatawithinenterprisesisoftensiloed—soit’snosurprisethatwhenrespondentswereaskedtonamethetopchallengeinbetterusingcustomerdata,56%statedthelackofintegrationbetweendatasources.Ifyourdatainfrastructureisalreadystrugglingwiththemassiveamountsofdataitcontendswith,thenitwillonlybuckleunderthegreaterdataloadthatisonthehorizon.Enterprisesneedtostartbuildingtheirwayoutofthisdatadelugeiftheyhopetoturntransparencyintotrust.EmergingAItoolswilllikelyplayabigroleinyourenterprise’stransition.Theycanautonomouslyaggregate,de-duplicate,andauto-tagFromourhealthtoourhome,sensingtechnologiesincreasinglyplayanintegralroleinourdailylives.dataaswellasdootherkeydatapreparationtasks.139Recently,forexample,therestaurantreservationcompanyOpenTableusedClarifai’sauto-taggingfeaturetohelpemployeesmoderatecontentinimagesuploadedtoOpenTable’splatform.Afterintegratingthisauto-tagging,OpenTablenoticeditscontentmoderationbecame16timesmoreproductive;onaverage,eachmoderatorjumpedfrommoderating300to5,000photosaday.140IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier52#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsAnothertechnologythatcanbolsteryourdatastrategyisaknowledgegraph,whichlinksrelateddatapointsandvisualizesthoselinks.Thesegraphsoftenincludesemanticlayers,ortextdescriptionsofthedata,whichmakeiteasiertofindwhatyouneed.StardogpartneredwithNASAtobuildaknowledgegraphoutofvariousdatasourcesaboutthemanufacturingofNASA’sSpaceLaunchSystemrocket.So,insteadofNASAengineersmanuallypullingindata,theycouldqueryaknowledgegraphtogetthedatatheysought,resultinginaten-foldincreaseintheirproductivity.141Importantly,emergingtoolsareallowingnon-engineerstotapintotechnologiesinthedatamanagementtoolboxaswell,allowingyourenterprisetobuildamoredata-forwardcompanyculture.Forinstance,self-serviceanalyticscanletemployees,regardlessoftheirtechnicalbackground,exploreyourenterprise’sdatatofindinsights.Thiscanbothempowerworkersandhelpsolvebusinessproblems.TaketheSeattleSeahawks,aprofessionalAmericanfootballteam.142Foryears,theNationalFootballLeague(NFL)VoiceoftheFansurveyfoundthatsomeSeahawkssupportershadofglobalexecutivesagreenewdataarchitecturesandstrategiesarerequiredtomanagethedramaticchangestotheirorganizations’datalandscapes.95%ahardtimehearinggamesintheteam’sstadium.Buttheteam’smanagementdidnotknowwherethosefanssattofixthegame’sspeakersthere.So,theSeahawksturnedtoTableau’sheatmappingtool.AfterinputtingtheirVoiceoftheFansurveydata,fourcornersoftheteam’sstadiumlitupinTableau’svisualization,showingwherethosefanswhocomplainedofpoorsoundqualitysat.TheSeahawkscouldreconfigurethestadium’saudiosystemwithoutbuyinganewone,savingmoneyandimprovingfanexperiences.Butisolatedtoolswon’tbeenough.Enterprisesneedtothinktoptobottomabouttheirdatamanagement.Fortunately,twoemergingdatamanagementstrategies,datameshanddatafabric,holdpromisetorevampyourenterprise.Theyeachhaveuniquebenefitsanddifferences,butunderscoringbothisstreamliningandde-siloingdataarchitectures.Withdatafabrics,thegoalistodefragmentanenterprise’sdataarchitecturebyleveragingautomationandmetadatatobuildasinglesourceoftruthacrossdisparatedatasources.Itisatop-IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier53#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsdownapproachthatinstallsavirtuallayerontopofanorganization’svariousdatasourcesfortightlycontrolled,unified,datamanagement.Metaphoricallyspeaking,itislikebuildingazooaroundyourdata.Youaren’tchangingtheunderlyingdata,andinfactyou’retryingtopreservetheenvironments—butatthesametimeyou’rebuildingconsistencyacrosstheenclosures,betterdescriptionsaboutwhat’sinside,andamaptowhereeverythingissoit’sallreadilyaccessiblebyeveryone.Themajorboonhereishowthesinglesourceoftruthandautomationcandramaticallyincreaseproductivity.Onesurveyfounddatascientistsspend45%oftheirtimeondatapreparationtasks,includingdataloadinganddatacleansing.143Whilethesestepsmaybetime-consumingandtedious,theyarenecessarytoensuredataqualityforthingslikedatavisualizationormodeldevelopment.Adatafabricparadigmcanautomatedatatasks,savingtheenterpriseanditsemployees’valuabletime,thankstoanactivemetadatamanagementsystem.Gartnerpredictsthatby2025,“activemetadata-assistedautomatedfunctionsinthedatafabricwillreducehumaneffortbyathird,whileimprovingdatautilizationfourfold.”144Datameshisanotheremergingconceptwhichtacklestheprobleminadifferentway.Ifdatafabricstrytoasserttop-downmanagementoverdata,datameshtreatseachdatasourceasanindependentproduct.CoinedbyZhamakDehghaniin2019,datameshstressesdomain-specificexpertise,management,andgovernance.145Theownersofdatasourcesaredistributedandentrustedtomanagedatathemselves,withtheexpectationthattheyaretryingtoreducethefrictiontoaccessthatdata(typicallythroughtheuseofAPIs).Thisisparticularlyusefulforbusinessesthathavevarieddataneedsacrossdifferentenvironments.Forinstance,anoilandgascompanymayseektounderstandoffshoreextractiondataatonesite,thenpipelineefficiencydataatanother.So,insteadofsomethinglikeadatalakepoolinginformationtogether,adatameshparadigmcanhelpacompanyaccessdataacrosslocationsfrommultiplesources.Nomatterwhichdatastrategyyouendupwith(anditcanevenbeboth),datameshanddatafabric,aswellasthetechnologiesbehindthem,canhelpyourenterprisemanageitsdatabetter—andhavingDatameshisanotheremergingconceptwhichtacklestheprobleminadifferentway.asoliddatamanagementstrategyisnecessaryinthisneweraoftransparency.Thatsaid,theabilitytounlock“windowsoftransparency”isnotthesamethingasactuallyopeningthem.Indeed,manybusinesseswillchoosetokeeptheirinsightsunderlock-and-key—butasexemplifiedbyYelp,theymayfindtheirdataoutintheopenanyway,andsoon.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier54#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsTheimplicationsThe“windowsoftransparency”thatarestartingtoemergereflectthebeginningofanewbusinesslandscapeeveryonewillsoonfindthemselvesoperatingin.Itwillreshapecustomerandpartnerrelationshipsandthevalueofdataandhowit’sgathered,creatingamarketwithclosertoperfectinformationthaneverbefore.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier55#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsTothriveinthislandscape,enterprisesneedtoquicklystartrevisitingtheirdatatechnologiesandbuildtransparencyasthedemand(oropportunity)foritemerges.Buttechnologyisonlyhalfthestory.Businessesalsoneedtoshifttheirmindsetstowardsembracingtransparency,revisithowtheycalculaterisk,andthinkmoremultidimensionallyaboutthevalueoftheirdata.A“windowoftransparency”freesinformation—andunderyourmanagementthiscanbeapowerfulthing.Doesitmeantoyoushouldshareallyourdataallthetime?No,datamustbecollectedandusedresponsibly—privacyandconfidentialityareessentialandshouldalwayscomefirstinanydecisionssurroundingdata.Butcompaniesalsoshouldn’tbeoverlyconservative.Whenitcomestotransparency,therearevaluablegainstobefoundforbusinesses’internaloperations,forcustomers,andforthepublic,andyoudon’twanttomissout.Internal:Transparententerprisescanseemoreclearlythegearsthatmaketheirbusinessturn.Thatclaritybringsproblemsorinefficienciestolight,whichcanthenpavethewaytosolutions.Untilweknowthataproblemexists,wecan’tfixit.Andtransparencycanbethatilluminatingforcetostrengtheninternaloperations.Digitaltwinsare“windowsoftransparency”—andtheyareoneofthebestwaystoshinealightonabusiness’sinternalworkings.Whiletheymaynotbenew,theyaregettingbetterinsignificant,moretransparentways.Forinstance,BentleySystems’platformforbuildingdigitaltwinsofcriticalinfrastructuresystems,iTwin,nowincludesiTwinExperience,whichactsasa“singlepaneofglass”tointegrateandoverlayengineering,operations,andinformationtechnologydata.146Thisallowsownersandoperatorstomoreeasilyvisualize,query,andanalyzedigitaltwinsatdifferentlevelsofgranularityandscale,effectivelyempoweringthemtomakebetterinformed,moreactionabledecisions.Activelygeneratingtransparencycanalsohelpsatisfynewinternalrequirements.Increasingly,localregulationsacrossanumberofgeographiesareplacingmaximumsoncarbonemissions,andpenalizingcompaniesthatpassthatthreshold.147Itmeanscompanieshavetobeabletobothmeasureandreporttheiremissionstoensurecompliance.Tohelpbuildingowners,MeasurablandSingularityEnergylaunchedatoolthatquantifiesandmonitorsbuildings’CO2emissions.148Thistoolcandetermineabuilding’scompliancewithlocalregulations,givebuildingownersafinancialriskreportbasedontheircarbonemissions,andcreateadecarbonizationplanperbuilding.Makingcarbonemissionsvisiblewillnotonlyensureacompany’scomplianceandcommitmenttosustainability,butoverall,itwilltakeacityonestepclosertobeingcleanerandhealthier.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier56#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsCustomer:Withcustomers,openingupgreatertransparencycanhelpenterprisesrevitalizeandenhanceexistingrelationships–andevenbecomeanavenueforsecuringnewones.Atatimewhentrustistopofmindforconsumers,thevalueoftransparencycannotbeunderstated.Approachthesenewdatademandsheadon,andyouwillbuildatrustedrelationshipwithcustomersandseethembecomeenthusiasticbrandchampions.Dataaboutcustomershaslongbeenvaluabletotheenterprise—nowitistimetomakeitvaluabletocustomersaswell.WantingtoemulatethesuccessofSpotifyWrapped,manyothercompaniesfromfitnesstrackerstonewssitesanddeliveryservicesexploredwaystopresentdatabacktocustomers.149Forexample,TheWashingtonPostlauncheditspersonalizedannualyear-in-reviewin2022,summarizingasubscriber’sreadinghabitstorevealtheiruniquereading“personality.”150Itremindsreadersofallthecontentthey’veenjoyedandthevaluetheygotfromThePost—andthereader’sunique“Newsprint”lookslikeafingerprint,readytobesharedonsocialmedia.Andothercompaniesprovideyear-enddatabacktotheircustomersinaggregate.Forinstance,accordingtoStrava’s2022YearInSport,cyclistsridingingroupsrodebothfartherandfaster,onaverage,thanthosewhorodesolo—hardproofthatitreallyisbeneficialtohaveatrainingpartner.151Beingtransparentwithcustomers,however,isalsoaboutallowingfeedbacktobesharedwithyou.ThinkingbacktoYelp,weknowpeople’sreviewscanshapeconsumerbehavior.It’sunderstandablethatenterpriseleadersarereluctanttoembracereviewssystemssincebadonescanhurtthebusiness—butnowtheassumptionmustbethatpeoplehavethatinformation.Inanenvironmentwithincreasingactivityfromfakeorbot-generatedreviews,itbenefitsenterprisestothinkabouthowtheydon’tshyawayfromtheconversation,butensureitisafairandaccuratedepiction.Trustpilotseekstorekindlecustomertrustbyrequiringthatreviewersshareanemailaddressandleavetheirreviewswithinoneyearofpurchasingaproduct.Moreover,Trustpilotemployscommunityflaggers,apaidhumanenforcementteam,andalgorithmicdetectiontogetridoffakereviews.152Trustpilotfoundthat74%ofconsumersaremorelikelytopurchasefromawebsitethatshowsTrustpilotreviews.153Verifiablereviewsarekeytobuildingacrediblebrandandloyalty.Foryearstherehavebeencallsforcompaniestoberesponsibleandopenaboutthedatatheycollectoncustomers.Nowtheexpectationisthatitwillbeatwo-waystreet.Enterprisesarebeinggiventheuniqueopportunitytonotjuststepawayfrompracticesthatleavecustomersskeptical,butalsoactivelyembraceonesthatreinforcetrust.Beingtransparentwithcustomers,however,isalsoaboutallowingfeedbacktobesharedwithyou.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier57#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsSocietal:Oneofthebiggestdriversinthedemandfortransparencyishowbothenterprisesandpeoplealikearestartingtoconfrontproblemsthatarebiggerthananyonebusiness.Buttacklingcomplexmultivariateproblems,onceagain,demandsreliableandtransparentdata.Forexample,asmoreenterprisesbegintolookbeyondthelimitsofourplanetanduptowardsspace,theworldisquicklyrunningintotheproblemof“spacejunk.”Debrisfromsatellites,rocketlaunches,andmorearestartingtocrowdtheareasaroundourplanetcreatingallmannerofdifficulty,fromobstructingastronomerstointerferingwithfuturerocketlaunches.Normally,noenterprisewouldtreatthisas“their”problem,butPrivateer,aspacestartup,decidedtoshedlightonit.154Thecompanybuiltapubliclyaccessibleobjecttrackingplatformtotracetheorbitsandvelocityofalltheobjectscrowdingourplanet.Thehopeisthatbyquantifyingthisproblem,otherscanstartworkingonasolution—oratleaststopmakingtheproblemworseinthenearterm.What’sbecomeclearisthattransparencycandrivesignificantbenefitsforahugerangeofstakeholders.Whethercompaniesarelookingtoimprovetheiroperationalefficiency,transformtheirrelationshipwithcustomers,ortakepartinsolvingsomeoftheworld’smostchallenginginformation-relatedproblems,thisnewapproachandmindsetarounddataiskey.ofexecutivesreportacceleratedinnovationand56%reportgreatertrustwithcustomersastheleadingbenefitsofincreasedtransparencyfortheirorganizations.59%58#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThebottomline“Windowsoftransparency”arecoming,whetheryou’retheoneopeningthemornot.Thedecisioncompaniesneedtomaketodaycomesdowntowhethertheyseizethismomentandfindwaystotakeadvantageofthechangingdataecosystem,orifthey’llresistthesechangesandmisstheopportunitiesahead.Wenolongeroperateinanenvironmentthatacceptsopacity.Partners,customers,regulators,andmorearealldemandinggreaterinsightintoyourbusinessandindustrythanever—andifyoudon’tmeetthosedemands,someoneelsewill.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier59#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits#TechVisionAdayinournewreality:AlexToday’snews:satelliteimagesshowananomalyinoneofhersoybeanfields.Alexheadsouttoinspectthefield,andtoherdismay,findsdiscolorationonthecropleaves.She’sprettysuresheknowswhatitisbuttakesadozenphotosanduploadsthemforTerraWisetoconfirm.Later,duringacoffeebreakwithherfriends,TerraWisepingsherwiththeresults.Asshesuspected—it’ssoybeanrust.Thiscanspreadquickly,sotheyneedtoactfast.Usingwhatitknowsaboutthehistoryofthefield,aswellasleadingresearchonsoybeanrust,TerraWisegeneratesacustomfungicideplanfortheaffectedcrop,aswellaspreventativetreatmentforsurroundingfields.Italsosendsanalerttoneighboringfarms’AIassistants.Withluckandherneighbors’help,theymayallmanagetoavoidcroploss.Alexisafarmmanager,responsibleforhundredsofacresoflandintheMidwesternUnitedStates.It’salottokeeptrackof—butshe’snotdoingitalone.Everymorning,shestartsherdaywithabriefingfromTerraWise,herAIassistantforallthingsagriculture.TerraWiseregularlyaggregatesandanalyzesamassivestreamofdata,fromsoilsensors,dronefootage,farmequipment,satelliteimages,weatherforecasts,andmore,andalertsAlextothemostimportantinformation.soybeanrustinspectiondroneAIanalyticsdashboardsatellitesurveilance59TechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier60#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsTheradicaledges—andpossibilities—ofintelligenceGeneralizingAITechnologyVision202360IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier61#TechVisionTheDartmouthSummerResearchProjectonArtificialIntelligenceworkshop,consideredafoundingmomentforthefieldofAI,convenes1551956DaveRumelhart,GeoffreyHinton,andRonaldWilliamspublishalandmarkpaperonback-propagation-layingthefoundationformodernneuralnetworks1561986AlexNet,aconvolutionalneuralnetworktrainedonGPUs,achievesabreakthroughperformanceontheImageNetbenchmarktest1572012OpenAIisfounded1582015AlphaGobeats18-timeworldGochampionLeeSedol1592016GoogleintroducestheTransformerAInetworkarchitectureinapapertitled“AttentionIsAllYouNeed.”Transformersnowunderpinmostfoundationmodels1602017HuggingFacereleasesV1ofitsTransformersNLPlibrary1612019OpenAItrainsGPT-3(GenerativePre-trainedTransformer),whichbecomestheworld’smostsophisticatedlargelanguagemodel1632020TheEurpoeanUnionproposestheAIAct,thefirstlegislationconcerningAI,thatwouldban,regulate,orallowAIapplicationsbasedonanassignedriskcategory1622021ResearchersatStanfordUniversitypublishapapercoiningthephrase“foundationmodels”1642021ApieceofAI-generatedartwinsfirstplaceinthedigitalartscategoryattheColoradoStateFair’sfineartscompetition1662022OpenAIreleasesChatGPT,ahighlysophisticatedchatbot1682022TheBeijingAcademyofArtificialIntelligenceannouncesWuDao2.0;amultimodaltextandimagefoundationmodelwith1.75trillionparameters1652021DeepMindintroducesGato,ageneralpurposeagentfoundationmodelthatcanperformawiderangeoftasksacrossmultiplemodalitiesandembodiments1672022Severalnewsearchengineshaveemerged,featuringfoundation-model-based“quickanswer”servicesthatgiveusersdirectandthoroughanswerstoqueries2024Anewgenerationofvirtualassistantsisbuiltwithtransformer-basedfoundationmodels.Increasedadoptionisattributedtomoresophisticatedandnaturallanguageability2024Aconsumerelectronicsfirmintroducesearbudsthatuseanon-devicefoundationmodeltotranslateover100languagesinnear-realtime2025AprestigiousartmuseumopensagallerydedicatedsolelytoAI-generatedartwork202730%ofsocialmediaadsareautonomouslygeneratedusingfoundationmodels.Adsmuststillpasshumanreview202975%ofknowledgeworkersgloballyinteractwithanapplication,service,oragentpoweredbyfoundationmodelsdaily2030Auniversitydeploysageneral-purposefoodservicerobot,builtwithafoundationmodel,totakeonoddjobsinthecafeteria.Therobotlearnsnewtaskseasily,socanfillopenrolesasneeded2033TimelineGeneralizingAI61#TechVisionIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier62#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThebigpictureAIisstirringuptheinternet.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier63#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsWhenOpenAIrevealedChatGPT—apowerfulnewchatbot—inlate2022,peopleclamberedtotestit.169Theyaskedcomplicated,open-endedquestions,requestedpoemsandessayswithobscuretopicsandstyles,andgotimpressiveandsometimeshumorousresults:inonecase,instructionsforremovingapeanutbuttersandwichfromaVCRwritteninthestyleoftheKingJamesBible.170Then,notevenfourmonthslater,OpenAIreleasedGPT-4,thegreatlyanticipatednextgenerationofitsAIsoftware,whichisevenmorecreative,andcanrespondtobothimageandtextinputsandevenmorenuancedinstructions.171,172Andbeforeallthis,theinternetwasfloodedwithAI-generatedart.Text-to-imagegeneratorslikeStabilityAI’sStableDiffusion,Midjourney,andOpenAI’sDALL-E2,stunnedpeoplebyrespondingtowrittenpromptswithphotorealisticimages.“TwocapybaraswaltzinginthestyleofMonet”wouldgetyouprettymuchthat.Infact,thiswaveofAI-generatedcontentissoadvanced—andmovingsoquickly—thatit’sdrivingcontroversy.Argumentsoverfairnessinartcompetitions,theethicsofmimickingartists’styles,legalrisks,andtheimpactonpeople’slivelihoodshaveflared.Andyet,whilerelevancetotheartindustryisclear,businessesinotherfieldsmaystillseeitasmerenovelty—andthey’remakingamistake.ThisgeneratedcontentispartofoneofthebiggeststepchangesinthehistoryofAI:theintroductionofpretrainedmodelswithremarkabletaskadaptability,whichwillrevolutionizehowandwhereenterprisesacrossindustriesuseAI.ItbeganwithalandmarkinnovationinAImodelarchitecturebyGoogleresearchersin2017.173Sincethen,techcompaniesandresearchershavebeensupersizingAI,increasingthesizeofmodelsby10,000timesandthesizeoftrainingsetstoo.Theresult:powerful,pretrainedmodels,oftencalled“foundationmodels,”thatofferunprecedentedadaptabilitywithinthedomainsthey’retrainedon,beitlanguage,images,orthestructureofproteins.Withthisadaptability,foundationmodelscancompleteawidevarietyoftaskswithoutneedingtask-specifictraining.What’smore,companiesIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier64#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsbuildingfoundationmodelsaregivingthirdpartiesaccessthroughAPIsorbyopensourcingthem,puttingtheseadvancedmodelsinanyone’shands.Thisisnoeverydaytechnologyadvancement.WhilefoundationmodelsarenottheonlyareaofAIresearchthat’sgrowing,themagnitudeoftheirpotentialimpactandthespeedatwhichtheycanbedeployedisdrivingthemtothetopofcompanies’innovationagendas.Withthem,businessescanstarttoapproachmanytasksandchallengesdifferently,shiftingfocusfrombuildingtheirownAItolearningtobuildwithAI.OnecompanytakingadvantageofthisisCarMax.CarMaxisusingGPT-3,alargelanguagemodelandpredecessortoGPT-4,toimprovethecar-buyingexperience.174Knowingthatthere’samassiveamountofinformationpotentialcarbuyersmaywanttoreadthroughbeforemakingapurchasedecision,CarMaxusedMicrosoft’sAzureOpenAIServicetoaccessapretrainedGPT-3modeltoquicklyreadandsynthesizeover100,000customerreviewsforeveryvehiclemake,model,andyearthattheysell.Fromthesereviews,themodelgenerated5,000easy-to-readsummaries—ataskthatCarMaxsaidwouldhavetakenitseditorialteam11yearstocomplete.Otherorganizationsarealsoexperimentingwithfoundationmodels,adaptingthemfortasksrangingfrompoweringcustomerservicebots,togenerativeproductdesign,toautomatedcoding.Andthemodelsareadvancingfast,withcompaniesacrossindustriesquicklydiscoveringnewwaystousethem.AsfoundationmodelsbroadenandextendwhatwecandowithAI,theyarelettingcompaniestransformhuman-AIinteractionandbuildanentirelynewgenerationofAIapplicationsandservices.Itisimperativeforeverybusinesstopayattentiontofoundationmodels.TobepartofthisnewgenerationofAIapplicationsandleveragethesemodelstodrivenovelbusinesssolutionsandofferings,companiesneedtounderstandtheirstrengthsandcapabilitiesandtrackhowtheyareadvancing—startingtoday.ThebedrockofAIisshifting.Willyouloseyourfooting—orenduponhigherground?ofglobalexecutivesareeitherveryorextremelyinspiredbythenewcapabilitiesofferedbyAIfoundationmodels.96%IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier65#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThetechnologyTounderstandwhat’shappeninginthisneweraofAIandsetyourselfuptobuildanewgenerationofAIapplications,wefirstneedtoexplorewhatmakesfoundationmodelsdifferent.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier66#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsAnewcategoryofAIOpenAI’sGPT-3,whichwasreleasedin2020,wasthefirstfoundationmodeltocapturewidespreadpublicattention—forgoodreason.Itwasthelargestlanguagemodelintheworldthenanddroveabreakthroughinthefield.Itdemonstratedcapabilitiesnoonehadseenbefore,teachingitselftoperformtasksithadneverbeentrainedon,andoutperformingmodelsthatweretrainedonthosetasks.Intheyearssince,manymoresupersizedmodelshaveappeared.CompanieslikeGoogle,Microsoft,Meta,andBaiduhavecreatedtheirownlargelanguagemodels.175,176,177,178Andsomehavestartedbuildinglargemultimodalmodels—liketheaforementionedGPT-4andtext-to-imagegenerators—whicharetrainedonmultipletypesofdata(liketext,image,video,orsound)andtoidentifytherelationshipsbetweenthem.179InanefforttodefinethisnewclassofAI,researchersfromtheStanfordInstituteforHuman-CenteredArtificialIntelligencecoinedtheterm“foundationmodel”inAugust2021.180TheygenerallydefinedthemaslargeAImodelstrainedonavastquantityofdatawithsignificantdownstreamtaskadaptability.Inpracticetoday,thesemodelstypicallyleveragetransformermachinelearningmodelsandhaveamassivenumberofparameters—rangingfromhundredsofmillionstotrillions.Whatmakesthemsogamechanging,isthatthey’rebroadlytrainedacrossadatamodality(ormultiplemodalitieslikelanguageandimage),ratherthanonaspecifictask,andcanlearntocompletenewtaskswithinthesedatatypeswithminimalornoextratraining.Inotherwords,theyhavegeneralistcapabilitieswithintheirdomains.DeepMind’sGatoisoneofthemostexcitingexamplestodate.ThecompanycallsGatoa“generalistagent”becauseitismultimodalandcancompleteover600differenttasks.181,182UsingasingleAImodelwithfixedweights,itcanchat,captionimages,playAtarivideogames,stackblockswitharoboticarm,andmore.Additionally,itcanlearnthesevarioustaskssimultaneouslyandswitchbetweenthemwithouthavingtoforgetpreviousskills.Forcontext,AlphaZero—anolderDeepMindmodelknownforplayingchess,Go,andshogi—hadtounlearnhowtoplaychessinordertoplayGo.InanefforttodefinethisnewclassofAI,researchersfromtheStanfordInstituteforHuman-CenteredArtificialIntelligencecoinedtheterm“foundationmodel”inAugust2021.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier67#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsFoundationmodelworkingsTherearetwokeyinnovationsmakingthisnewwaveofAIpossible.Thefirstistransformermodels,introducedbyGoogleresearchersin2017.183OneofthenewestclassesofAImodels,transformersareneuralnetworksthatidentifyandtrackrelationshipsinsequentialdata(likethewordsinasentence),tolearnhowtheydependonandinfluenceeachother.Theyaretypicallytrainedviaself-supervisedlearning,whichforalargelanguagemodelcouldmeanpouringthroughbillionsofblocksoftext,hidingwordsfromitself,guessingwhattheyarebasedonsurroundingcontext,andrepeatinguntilitcanpredictthosewordswithhighaccuracy.184Thistechniqueworkswellforothertypesofsequentialdatatoo:somemultimodaltext-to-imagegeneratorsworkbypredictingclustersofpixelsbasedontheirsurroundings.Thesecondinnovationisscale—significantlyincreasingthesizeofmodels,andsubsequently,theamountofcomputeusedtotrainthem.Thesizeofamodelismeasuredinparameters,whicharethevaluesorweightsinaneuralnetworkthataretrainedtorespondtovariousinputsortasksincertainways.185Generallyspeaking,moreparametersletsamodelsoakupmoreinformationfromitstrainingdataandmakemoreaccuratepredictionslater.ButwhatOpenAIdemonstratedwithGPT-3isthatvastlyincreasingthenumberofparametersinatransformermodel,andthecomputationalpowerputintotrainingit,leadsnotjusttohigheraccuracybutalsotheabilitytolearntasksthemodelwasnevertrainedon.Thisnovellearningability—alsoknownasfew-shotandzero-shotlearning—meansthatfoundationmodelscansuccessfullycompletenewtasksgivenonlyafewornotask-specifictrainingexamples.DeepMind’sFlamingo—an80Bparametermultimodalvisual-languagemodel—isespeciallygoodatthis.186Ina2022paper,DeepMindresearchersdemonstratedhowFlamingocanconductfew-shotlearningonawiderangeofvisionandlanguagetasks,onlybeingpromptedbyafewinput/outputexamplesandwithouttheresearchersneedingtochangeoradaptthemodel’sweights.Insixof16taskstheytested,Flamingosurpassedstate-of-the-artmodelsthathadbeentrainedonmuchmoretask-specificdata,despitenothavinganyre-trainingitself.OneofthenewestclassesofAImodels,transformersareneuralnetworksthatidentifyandtrackrelationshipsinsequentialdata(likethewordsinasentence),tolearnhowtheydependonandinfluenceeachother.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier68#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsWhilefoundationmodelshavealreadypushedtechnologicalboundaries,it’simportanttorecognizethatthefieldischangingquickly.Stanford’s2022ArtificialIntelligenceIndexReportfoundasignificantuptickintheannualnumberofglobalAIpublicationssince2017.187AccordingtoCBInsights,2022sawrecordinvestmentsingenerativeAIstartups,with$2.6billioninfundingacross110deals.188Andinearly2023,MicrosoftannouncedthenextphaseofitspartnershipwithOpenAIthroughamultibilliondollarinvestment.189Totrulyunderstandtheimpactfoundationmodelswillhaveontheirindustriesandbusinesses,companiesneedtocarefullytracknewdevelopments.Oneofthemostsignificantwaysfoundationmodelsareevolvinghastodowiththedatatypesthey’retrainedon—whichrightnowarelimited.Mostoftoday’sfoundationmodelsarelargelanguagemodelstrainedonnaturallanguage,andevenmultimodalmodelsaretypicallylanguage-and-imageonly.Butsomeareworkingtoexpandtomoredatamodalities.Thiscanmeanbuildingstandalonefoundationmodelsfornewkindsofdata.Meta,forinstance,developedaprotein-foldingmodel—alargelanguagemodelthatlearnedthe“languageofprotein”—thatacceleratedproteinstructurepredictionsbyupto60x.190AndaresearchteamfromtheUniversityofTexasatAustin,theIndianInstituteofTechnologyMadras,andGoogleResearch,proposedGeneralizableNeRFTransformer(GNT),atransformer-basedarchitectureforNeRFreconstruction.191,192ANeRF(NeuralRadianceField)isaneuralnetworkthatcangenerate3Dscenesbasedononlypartial2Dviews—andexperimentingwithtransformerstogenerate3Ddatalikethiscouldhavebigmetaverseimplications.Otherorganizationsareworkingtoincorporatemoredatatypesintoasinglemodel.TakeMicrosoft’sFlorence,afoundationmodelbuiltforgeneral-purposecomputervisiontasks.193Whileitwastrainedonalargedatasetofimage-textpairsandhasonlyatwo-towerarchitecture,combiningonelanguageencoderandoneimageencoder,itscreators97%ofglobalexecutivesagreeAIfoundationmodelswillenableconnectionsacrossdatatypes,revolutionizingwhereandhowAIisused.FutureadvancesinfoundationmodelsIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier69#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsextendeditslearningabilitytovideotaskswithaproposedvideoadapterbuiltofftheimageencoder.Extendingtothisadditionaldatatypeisakeysteptowardacomputervisionfoundationmodelthatcangeneralizeacrossreal-worldvisiontasks—andcoulddriveapplicationsinsecurity,healthcare,andmore.Anothersignificantareatotrackiseffortstomakebuildinganddeployingfoundationmodelseasier.Rapidlygrowingcomputerequirements,andtheassociatedcostsandexpertiseneededtohandlethisscale,arethebiggestbarrierstoday.TheamountofcomputeneededtotrainthelargestAImodelshasgrownexponentially—nowdoublinganywherefromevery10monthstoevery3.4months,accordingtovariousreports.194,195Andevenafteramodelistrained,it’sexpensivetorunandhostallofitsdownstreamvariationsasitgetsfine-tunedtohandledifferenttasks.Intoday’scloudcomputingsetups,it’sslowtoloadfoundationmodelseachtimethey’reneededbutexpensivetokeepmanymodelsonline.Anyscale—aunicornthatrecentlyraised$199million—isworkingtolowerthesebarriers.196AnyscalewasfoundedbyagroupofUCBerkeleyresearcherswhodevelopedRay,anopen-sourceframeworkthatimprovesaccesstofoundationmodelsbymakingiteasiertoscaleanddistributemachinelearningworkloads.It’scurrentlyusedtotrainthelargestAImodelscomingoutofOpenAI,likeChatGPT.197Cohere,astartupbuildinganNLPdevelopertoolkit,alsousesRaytotrainlargelanguagemodels.198AndIBMisusingittoimplementzero-copymodelloading,wheretheystoremodelweightsinsharedmemory,anduseRaytoinstantlyloadandredirectclusterresourcestowhatevermodelanapplicationrequiresinthemoment.199Thisfreesusersfromneedingtotunethenumberofmodelvariationstheykeeploadedinmemory,andisexpectedtoleadtomuchsimplerfoundationmodeladaptationanddeployment.Thenovelcapabilitiesoffoundationmodels—andtheseongoingadvancesinthetechnology—haveledsomeinthecommunitytoseethemasasteptowardartificialgeneralintelligence(AGI),anAIsystemcapableoflearninganyintellectualtaskthatahumancanlearn.Onlytimewilltellifthetechnologiesandmethodsbehindfoundationmodelsareenoughtoachievesomeformoftrulygeneralintelligenceinthefuture.Nevertheless,thelevelofgeneralizationfoundationmodelshavealreadyachievedwithincertaindatatypesishugelysignificantandmorethanenoughtorevolutionizehowandwhereenterprisesuseAI.Totrulyunderstandtheimpactfoundationmodelswillhaveontheirindustriesandbusinesses,companiesneedtocarefullytracknewdevelopments.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier70#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsTheimplicationsThequestionnowforbusinessesshouldn’tbewhetherthesemodelswillimpacttheirindustry,buthow.Foundationmodelsarewidelyadaptableandcouldtechnicallybeusedforawidevarietyoftasks—sothedecisionscompaniesmakearoundwhereandhowtodeploythem,whatproblemstoattempttosolvewiththem,andwhatproblemstoaddresswithdifferenttechnologies,arewherecompetitivedifferentiationwillbefound.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier71#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsUsingfoundationmodelsfortherightpurposesstartswithunderstandingwhattheytrulychange.Thisgoesbeyondtechnicalcapabilities—it’saboutwhatthesemodelsletbusinessesdothattheycouldn’tdobefore.Therearetwomajorbenefitshere.First,theyhavethepotentialtodeeplytransformhuman-AIinteraction.LookathowsomearecallingChatGPTthefutureofsearchandknowledgeretrieval.200Itcanwritepoemsandessays,debugcode,andanswercomplicatedquestionsbecauseit’strainedonbillionsofexamplesoftextpulledfromtheinternet.201Anditrememberspreviousconversations,soitcanreviseorelaborateonresponses,makinghuman-machinecommunicationmoresophisticatedandnatural.Thisisimportant.Becausemanyfoundationmodelsare(orcontain)alargelanguagemodel,theyusenaturallanguageastheirinterface.It’sabigpartofwhyfoundationmodelsaregivingrisetoanewgenerationofAIapplications:peoplecaneasilyengagewiththem.Frame,forinstance,isusingalargelanguagemodelcapableofgeneratingcodetohelpteachersdesign3Dmetaverseclassroomssimplybydescribingwhattheywantintheroomoutloud.202Andthey’renottheonlyonesthinkingalongtheselines.JensenHuang,CEOofNvidia,hasalsosaidheexpectslargelanguagemodelstobeacoretechnologyforgenerating3Dimagesandshapestopopulatethemetaverse.203Anotherwayfoundationmodelsarechanginghuman-AIinteractionisbytransforminghowworkisdone.Googleusedafoundationmodeltodevelopacodecompletiontool,whichover10,000engineerstestedforathree-monthperiod.204Theresultsshowedthatcodingiterationtimewasreducedby6%.Thepotentialofthesemodelstotransformworkflowsandimproveproductivity,eveninhighlycomplextasks,isundeniable.Andsoon,companiesmaystarttousetheminmuchmorevariedways,augmentingtasksallacrossproductdevelopment,businessprocesses,andmore.CharacterizingthebenefitsoffoundationmodelsIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier72#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThesecondmajorbenefitisthatfoundationmodelsareopeningthedoortonewAIapplicationsandservicesthatweredifficultorimpossibletobuildbefore.Forinstance,lackoftrainingdataisamajorissueformostorganizationslookingtoexpandtheiruseofAI.Butwithzero-andfew-shotlearningabilities,pretrainedfoundationmodelsmayhelpcircumventthislimitation.Foundationmodelsrequiremassiveamountsofdataupfront,whichishandledbytheircreators.Butonceamodelistrained,organizationscanadaptittoarangeofdownstreamtasks,buildingnewcapabilitieswithjustafewexamplesorfine-tuningamodelwithjustasmalltrainingset.RatherthaneverynewAIapplicationrequiringmonthsofeffortandinvestment,organizationswillbeabletocreateanddeploythemmuchmoresimply.IBM,forinstance,hasbeentransitioningsomeofitsWatsonportfoliotousefoundationmodels.205Theyfoundthatwithpretrainedlanguagemodels,WatsonNLPcouldtrainsentimentanalysisonanewlanguagewithonlyafewthousandsentences,atrainingsetahundredtimessmallerthanwhatpreviousmodelsrequired.Overaboutayear,thecompanywasabletoexpandWatsonNLPfrom12languagesto25.Theintersectionofdataandfoundationmodelspresentsaninterestingirony.Thesemodelsrequirehugeamountsofdatafortraining,butoncetrained,cangeneratelimitlessquantitiesofsyntheticdata.Thiscouldbeusefulformanyorganizationsconstrainedbythelackofreal-worldlabeleddata,theneedfordatafromedgecases,ortheneedtopreservedataprivacy.Syntheticdataisprimedtoplayanimportantroleintrainingandvalidatingautonomousvehicles,systemsthatworkwithhealthrecordsorfinancialdata,andmuchmore.Ontheflipside,ascompaniesdevelopnewfoundationmodels,theymayalsorunoutoftrainingdata.Mostlanguageandimagemodelsrelyonhugeamountsofwebdata,andorganizations’abilitytoincreasemodelsizedependsonfindingnewdatasources.Additionally,developingfoundationmodelsfornewmodalitiesmayrequirehugeamountsofhard-to-obtaindata.Syntheticdata,perhapsevenfromearlyfoundationmodels,couldbeapowerfultoolforbuildingthesenewmodels.Sidebar:SyntheticdataandfoundationmodelsIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier73#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsMultimodalfoundationmodels’abilitytorecognizemultipledatatypesandidentifytherelationshipsbetweenthemisalsopushingtheenvelopeofwhatAIiscapableof,enablingpowerfulnewsystems.GPT-4,forexample,ismultimodalandacceptsbothimageandtextinputs,meaningthatifsomeoneweretoshowitapictureoftheinsideoftheirrefrigerator,itcouldcorrectlyidentifytheitemsinside,suggestmealsthatcanbemadewiththoseingredients,andthenprovidestep-by-stepcookinginstructions.206AndMetahaslongseenthevalueofanAIsystemthatcaninterpretcontentonitsplatform—especiallywhenitcomestodetectinghatespeech.Butthisisataskthat’shistoricallybeendifficultformachinesbecausepeopletendtocommunicateinmultimodalwaysontheseplatforms(usingtextandimagetogethertotellajoke,forinstance).SoMetahaslaunchedaseriesoffoundationandmultimodalAIprojectstohelpthemanalyzedifferenttypesofcommunication—liketext,image,andvideo—inconjunction.ThecompanycreatedtheHatefulMemesdatasettoaddresstheshortageofpubliclyavailabletrainingdataforclassifyingmemes;itdevelopedFLAVA,amultimodalfoundationmodelthatworksacrossdozensoftasks;anditbuiltOmnivore,amodelthatcanoperateacrossimages,video,and3Ddata,doingthingslikedetectingcontentinbothvideosandimages.207,208Thoughmultimodalfoundationmodelsarestillrelativelyfew,andmostofthemaretext-to-imagegenerators,it’sexcitingtoimaginethepossibilitieswe’llhaveinthefuture.Whatwillwebeabletodowhenmultimodalmodelsconnecttext,sound,image,video,3Dspatialdata,sensordatafromindustrialequipment,environmentaldata,ormanyothertypesofdata?Earlyopportunitiesmaystartwithgeneratingmarketingimagesandadcopybutcouldgrowintosophisticatedautogeneratedcodeandnewwaystosearchandaccessinformation.AnalystsmightuselanguagetoaskanAIsystemtodescribepatternsacrossthousandsofsatelliteimages.ApieceofindustrialequipmentmightuseanAIsystemtotranslatedatafromdozensofsensorsintoarepairprocedureforamechanic.OrmultimodalAImighthelpdrasticallyimprovethepathplanningandperformanceofroboticarms.Thoughmultimodalfoundationmodelsarestillrelativelyfew,andmostofthemaretext-to-imagegenerators,it’sexcitingtoimaginethepossibilitieswe’llhaveinthefuture.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier74#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsOncecompaniesgraspthebenefitsoffoundationmodels,thequestionshiftsfromwheretheydrivevaluetohowtodeploythem—andoneofbiggestreasonsfoundationmodelsaresoexcitingisthatmostcompanieswon’tneedtobuildtheirown.Asinglefoundationmodel’sabilitytocompletemanydownstreamtasksiscreatingaparadigmshiftinthebusinessofAI.LargetechcompaniesandresearchorganizationsthathavebuiltpretrainedfoundationmodelsarestartingtopositionthemasplatformstounderpinnewAIapplications.Theyaremakingfoundationmodelsavailableviaopen-sourcechannelsorviapaidaccessthroughAPIs—meaningthatdownstreamorganizationsdon’tneedtobuildtheirownfoundationmodelsbutcanfocusonbuildingontopofexistingones.Justastheemergenceofcloudplatformstransformedconversationsfrom“HowdoIbuildmyownclouddatacenter?”to“WhatcanIbuildwiththepubliccloud?”foundationmodelsareshiftingconversationsfrom“HowdoIbuildmyownAI?”to“WhatcanIbuildwithAI?”GoingbacktoGPT-3—thisfoundationmodelisthemostestablishedasaplatformtoday.OpenAItransitionedfromanon-profittocapped-profitcompanyin2019andreleasedtheOpenAIAPIasitsfirstcommercialproductin2020.209,210ItgrantscustomersaccesstoGPT-3andmakescustomizingoradaptingthemodelforanewtaskassimpleasshowingitsomenewexamplesorprompts.Ninemonthsafterlaunching,thecompanyreportedover300applicationsusingtheAPI.211By2022,thatnumberwasinthethousands,withGPT-3poweringfeatureslikecopywriting,websitebuilding,chatbots,andmore.212,213Additionally,thestartupHuggingFaceisgrowinginpopularityasahubforfoundation,transformer,andothermachine-learningmodels.Thecommunityplatformoffersmanypretrainedmodels,allowingdeveloperstoworkwithnewAImodelswithoutneedingtocollectdataortrainthemthemselves.Theplatformispopularwithindiedevelopers,butmajorcompanies—includingIntel,eBay,Pfizer,andBloomberg—arestartingtouseitaswell.214HuggingFrombuildingAItobuildingwithAIIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier75#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsFacecloseda$100millionfundingroundata$2billionvaluationinMay2022tohelpitbecomethepremierlocationforbuildingwithpretrainedAImodels.A“middlelayer”isalsostartingtoappearalongsidefoundationmodelplatforms,offeringserviceslikefine-tuningthemodelsformorecustomuse.Thoughfoundationmodelsarepretrainedandhighlyadaptable,somedownstreamtasksmayrequiremorespecifictraining,andfine-tuningmeanstrainingitonnew,task-specificdatatochangeitsoutput.Microsoft,forinstance,ispackagingandsellingGPT-3capabilitiestocustomers,integratingitintoitslow-codeappdevelopmentplatformPowerApps,andofferingcustomersaccesstothemodelalongwiththeenterprise-gradesecurity,compliance,reliability,anddataprivacyassuranceofAzure.215ThechangesfoundationmodelshavebroughttotheAIlandscape—andtheirexpectedimpactonbusinesses—shouldn’tbeunderstated.Withplatformsmakingitincreasinglysimpletoadaptpre-trainedmodelsforvariousAIneeds,companiesmaydeployAIsolutionsfarmorereadilythanbefore.Andwithfoundationmodelsexpandingintonewdatamodalities,companiescanbuildtrulynovelapplicationsthatwouldn’thavebeenpossiblebefore.Thisisafast-movingfield,soit’stimetostartimagininghowthesemodelsmaytransform—ordisrupt—yourbusiness.Thisisafast-movingfield,soit’stimetostartimagininghowthesemodelsmaytransform—ordisrupt—yourbusiness.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier76#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsEveryyearAIplaysabiggerroleincompanies’innovationagendas,operations,customerinteractions,andmore.Butnow,organizations’carefullyconstructedstrategiesneedtoberethoughtwithfoundationmodelsinmind.Thismeansdiscoveringthemostappropriateapplicationsforfoundationmodelsinyourorganization,planningtoaccessthebroaderfoundationmodelecosystem,andbuildingthetalentpipelinethatwillbeneededtocreate,maintain,orintegratethesemodels.Firsttoidentifytherightroleforfoundationmodelsinyourorganization,it’snecessarytounderstandtheirbestusecases.TherearemanyAIapplicationsthatworkwithdatatypesnofoundationmodelcanhandleyet.Additionally,someusecasesthatafoundationmodelcouldfeasiblyattemptarestillfundamentallybetterservedbynarrowAI,whichistrainedspecificallyforataskratherthanacrossamodality.216Clearlydefinedproblemslikepredictivemaintenanceandmedicalimageanalysis,forinstance,areareaswherenarrowintelligencemaybethebetterchoice.Beyondthat,someapplicationsrequirespecialcharacteristicsthatotherapproachesarebettersuitedto.On-deviceAImayrequireextremelowpoweroperationortheabilitytorunanAImodelfullyofflinesodatacanstaywiththedeviceratherthanbeingsenttothecloud.What’smore,foundationmodelshavesomecharacteristicsthat—fornow—makethemquestionableforcertainsituations.Thisisaddinganentirelynewdimensiontoenterprises’securityefforts.Forinstance,biasinfoundationmodelsisacommonconcernduetohomogenizationaswellasthefactthatmanyaretrainedonlargedatasetsfromtheinternet.Historicdatasetsthatexcludedcertainpopulations,people,anddemographicscanleadtoundesirableoutcomes.Andsomecompanies’earlyeffortsevenfoundmisinformationwasaffectingtheoutputsofthesealgorithms.Whenthesamefewmodelsareusedasthebasisformanydownstreamapplications,thenanyissuesintheoriginalmodelsmaypropagatethroughouttherest.TherehavebeeneffortsfromthemakersoffoundationmodelstoofglobalexecutivesagreeAIfoundationmodelswillplayanimportantroleintheirorganizations’strategiesinthenext3to5years.98%ConstructinganewAIstrategyIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier77#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitscorrectforsomeofthesebiases.GPT-3,forinstance,wasgivenanextraroundoftrainingonamorecurateddatasetafterreligiousbiaswasdiscovered.217Butevenso,businessesshouldcarefullyconsiderriskslikethiswhendeterminingnotonlyiftheycanuseafoundationmodel,butwhethertheyshould.Asbusinessesnarrowdownwheretousefoundationmodels,theynextneedtodecidehowtheywillaccessthesemodelsandwheretheywillsitinthefoundationmodelecosystem.Thebaselayerofthisecosystemconsistsoforganizationswiththeexpertise,accesstodata,andcomputinginfrastructuretotrainnewfoundationmodels—butnoteveryoneneedstofunctiononthislevel.Formany,decisionswillbearoundhowdirectlytheyworkwithpre-trainedmodels.Forinstance,anotherlayeroftheecosystemwillbecompaniesthataccessfoundationmodelsviaAPIsormodelrepositoriesandbuildonthemtocreatetheirownapplicationsandservices.Forsimpleapplications,developerswillbeabletoleveragethetransferlearningoffoundationmodelsbysimplybuildingtheUIandinterconnectsaroundthemodel,whileinmoreadvancedcases,developersmightleveragefine-tuningtohonethefoundationmodeltoaspecificapplication.Thisapproachcreatestheopportunityforwideexperimentationthroughouttheorganization,aswellasthechancetodevelopB2Bfoundationmodelofferings.Butagain,noteveryonewillwanttodothis.Evenwithnaturallanguageofferinganeasy-to-useinterface,somesoftwareengineeringknowledgeisneededtosuccessfullybuildapplicationsaroundfoundationmodels.Companieswithoutthoseskillsetscanstillbenefitfromthetechnologythough,andtheymakeupthethirdlayeroftheecosystem.InthewakeofOpenAIandothersturningtheirmodelsintoplatforms,awaveofcompanieshavestartedofferingnewB2Bproductsandservices.WhethertheyusefoundationmodelstopowerB2Btools,enhancetheirownservices,orbuildcustomapplicationsforclients,thesecompaniesaremakingiteasierthaneverforanyonetocapitalizeonfoundationmodelcapabilities.Finally,athirdwaybusinessescanstartreworkingtheirAIstrategieshastodowithtalent.AsfoundationmodelsemergeandofferapowerfulbaselineforIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier78#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsbuildingAIapplications,AIoperationswillshiftfrombuildingmodelstobuildingontopofmodels.Talentwiththeskillstotakefoundationmodels,adaptthemtobusinessneeds,andintegratethemintoapplicationswillbecomeincreasinglyimportant.Justastheadoptionofthecloudshiftedbusinessneedsfromtalentwithdatacenterexpertisetocloudarchitects,foundationAIislikelytoreshapethenatureofAIoperationstoo.Yourtalentstrategyadjustmentsshouldn’tstopthere,however.Someofthebiggestchallengeswithfoundationmodelswillbediscoveringthenewpossibilitiestheycanbringtoyourorganizationandthenmonitoringtheiroutputandbehavior.Andwiththesemodelsevolvingquickly,it’sanongoingchallenge.Thiswillneedtobeacross-organizationeffort—andwhobettertodiscoverhowaprocesscanbeimprovedorhowanexperiencecanbeelevated,andthensupervisehowafoundationmodelisusedtosolvethosechallenges,thanthepeopleworkingonthem?Whetheritmeanstrainingeveryemployeeonfoundationmodelcapabilities,orcreatingteamsdedicatedtointegratingthesemodelsintodifferentpartsofthebusiness,bringingyourwiderorganizationintothisneweraofAIiscritical.Foundationmodelsareintheirinfancy,butoverthenextdecadetheirimpactwillgrowtobeoverwhelming.Theycoulddrivenewdatapractices,transformingthenatureofknowledgesharingintheorganization.Theycouldbegame-changingfordigitalstrategies,writingsophisticatedcodeandpoweringnovelofferings.Theycouldtransformstrategyandbusinessplanning,forecastingheadcountneedsorshiftsincustomerdemandwithgreatereaseandaccuracythanwecanimagine.Andforthosethatbuildtheirownfoundationmodels,theycouldbringindustry-shiftingadvantages—newtoolsforscientificdiscovery,newmethodsforengineering,ornewindustry-specificAIagents.Whatifyourbusinessbuildsthemodelthatchangeseverything?Whetheritmeanstrainingeveryemployeeonfoundationmodelcapabilities,orcreatingteamsdedicatedtointegratingthesemodelsintodifferentpartsofthebusiness,bringingyourwiderorganizationintothisneweraofAIiscritical.#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThebottomlineThearrivaloffoundationmodelsisoneofthebiggeststepchangesinAIhistory—andnoenterprisecanignorethem.Thesesupersizedmodels,withunprecedentedadaptabilitytonewtasks,areforcingenterprisestorethinktheirAIstrategies—fromhowtheyaccessAItowhatapplicationsareevenpossible.Already,companiescanusemodelsavailabletodaytoexperimentandbuildnovelapplicationsmoreeasilythanever—andasthetechnologyadvances,theopportunitieswillonlykeepgrowing.TolearnmoreabouttheimpactofgenerativeAIonbusiness,readAccenture’slatestreport,AneweraofgenerativeAIforeveryone.79IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier80#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits#TechVision80Adayinournewreality:BenWearinghisARglasses,Benexaminesa3Ddiagram,rotatingtheimagetoseeeveryside.He’safoodscientistatMeat4All—astartupaimingtoproduceaffordablesyntheticprotein.Rightnow,he’stryingtodesignanewscaffoldfortheirmeatcultures,onethathehopeswillimprovethetextureoftheirnewestsubstitutemeatproduct.He’sworkingwiththecompany’sAIsystem,whichgeneratesseveralnovelproteinstructures,allofwhichcouldbeusedasscaffoldingmaterial,andhavethepotentialtoimprovetexturewithoutoverlycompromisingtheflavorofthemeat.Afterexaminingthem,Benselectsthethreebestoptions.Then,heaskstheAIsystemwhichofthethreewouldhavethelowestcarbonimpact.It’sabroadquestionwithalotofcontributingfactors,fromwherematerialsaresourcedtodifferencesinthesynthesisprocess.TheAIsystemcomesbackwithacarbonimpactanalysisforeachone,andthedifferencesareslight.ButBenknowsthatonceMeat4Allisproducingthesescaffoldsatscale,slightdifferencescanmeanalot.BenARglasses3DdiagramofsyntheticproteinIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierTechnologyVision202381ThebigbangofcomputingandscienceOurforeverfrontierTechnologyVision202381IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier82#TechVisionBycombiningformaldehydeandphenol,BelgianchemistLeoBaekelandcreatesthefirstentirelysyntheticplastic2181907TheManhattanProjectbeginsanddrawsattentiontotheimpactofscienceontechnology2191942PhysicistsatBellLabsachieveasemiconductorbreakthrough,leadingtotheinventionofthetransistorandtransistorizedcomputers220,2211946ThefirstU.S.spacestation,Skylab,launches.Itwillbethesiteofnearly300technicalandscientificexperiments2221973PeterShordevelopsanalgorithmthatcouldbreaktraditionalencryption,ifapowerfulenoughquantumcomputerexisted2231994Bringingtogetherexpertcomputerscientists,engineersandbiologists,theHumanGenomeProjectsuccessfullysequences92%ofthehumangenome2242003Boeing,VirginAtlanticandGEAviationconductthefirstcommercialflightwithamixtureoftraditionalandbio-derivedaviationfuel2252008DARPAlaunchestheLivingFoundriesprogramwhichaimstoharnessbiologicalsystemstoproducecomplexmoleculesfordefense-relevantapplications2262010NASA,Google,andtheUniversitiesSpaceResearchAssociationpurchaseaD-WaveTwotostudytheintersectionofquantumcomputingandAI2272013Tocreatebetterautomotivetires,GoodyearexperimentsonsilicaparticleformationaboardtheInternationalSpaceStation2282019HostedatOakRidgeNationalLaboratory,theFrontiersupercomputerbecomesthefirstexascalecomputer,accordingtotheTop500list2302022ComputationalimmunologyandmRNAtechnologyleadtotheCOVID-19vaccines-thefastestvaccineseverdeveloped2292020Theaveragepricetosequenceahumangenomereaches$600,downfrom$10,000in2012,thanksinparttoadvancesinmolecularchemistry2322022Anewquantumcomputingalgorithmpropelsabreakthroughinsolid-statebatteryproduction2025Inanationalsustainabilitypush,Indiaunveilsasyntheticallyderivedmicrobewhichincreasesefficacyofplasticbreakdown2026Morethan50%ofnewcarssoldareelectric,20%havesolid-statebatteries2030Usingquantumcomputing,scientistscreateanewmethodtospeedupgreenhydrogenproduction.Globalhydrogenusegrows3x2027Q-Dayarrives,andsystemsprotectedwithRSAencryptionarenolongersecure2032AlargeagriculturecompanyusesgenerativeAItodesignanewbacteriathatcapturesCO2andconvertsitintocompoundsforfertilizer20311billionpeoplehaveatleast10%oftheirgenomesequencedandnowbenefitfromimprovementsinpersonalizedmedicine2033ThefirstprivatespacestationiscompletedandwillhostbothNASAandprivatescientificresearch2033DeepMindreleasesover200millionproteinstructurepredictionsderivedfromthedeeplearningalgorithmAlphaFold2312022TimelineOurforeverfrontier#TechVision82IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontierIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier83#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThebigpictureWorldWarIItaughtusanimportantlessonabouttherelationshipbetweenscienceandtechnology—onethatguidedinnovationeffortsfordecadesafter.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier84#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsDuringthewar,sciencewashavingclearandsignificantimpactonmilitarysuccess,throughthecreationofnewtoolsandweaponslikeradarandtheatomicbomb.233Andneartheendofit,alandmarkreporttotheU.S.president,called“Science,theEndlessFrontier,”madethecasethatsupportingscientificresearchwoulddrivetechnologiescriticaltothenationaleconomy—anditledtosignificantgovernmentandcorporateinvestmentsinscience.Theperiodofinnovationthatfollowedallbutprovedthistheory.LookatBellLabsandtheinventionofthetransistor.Thefirstpatentforaproposedfield-effecttransistorwasfiledin1925,butascientificbreakthroughwasneededtomakeatransistorthatactuallyworked.234In1946,BellLabsphysicistsmadethatbreakthrough,advancingcriticalunderstandingofelectronmobilityinsemiconductors.Theybuiltthefirstworkingtransistorin1947,andsevenyearsafterthat,thefirsttransistorcomputerwasmade—foreverchangingtechnologyandtheworld.235Butthe“sciencedrivestechnology”ethoswasn’tthewholestory.HighinvestmentinandfocusonscienceduringandafterWorldWarIIcertainlyacceleratedtechnologicaldevelopment—buttechnologyalsobegantorapidlyacceleratescience.Rockettechnologydevelopedformilitaryapplicationsquicklybecamethefirsthuman-madeobjectstoreachouterspaceandwouldsendhumanitytothemoonlessthantwodecadeslater.236Combatradarwasadaptedtofocusonweatherpatterns,sparkingthefieldofmeteorology.Andthehuntforcheapalternativestorubberledtothedevelopmentofnewmaterials.237Therelationshipbetweenscienceandtechnologyisabi-directionalfeedbackloopthatcanbeexercisedtopowerfuleffect,pushingtheboundsofthepossible.Butrecently,withthegrowthofcomputing,(digital)technologytookcenterstage,capturingthefascinationofenterpriseseverywhere.Whiletechnologycertainlystillacceleratedscientificdiscovery,enterpriseswerelargelycontenttoleavethatinthehandsofresearchersandspecificindustries.WeforgotthelessonsfromBellLabs,thespacerace,andothers.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier85#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsNowthat’sstartingtochange.Moreenterprisesarewideningtheirinnovationeffortstofocusontheentiretyofthefeedbackloopandareseeingjusthowpowerfullydisruptivetheintersectionofscienceandtechnologycanbe.TheCOVID-19pandemiccreatedglobalpressureandurgencytoinnovatetoadegreethatwehadn’tseenindecades,andleadersrespondedwithhighinvestmentinemergingtechnologiestohelpthemdrivescienceanddelivernewsolutionsatbreakneckspeed.Itwasaperiodofmassiveinnovationcompression,theimpactofwhichwillcontinuetobefeltforadecadeormore.ConsiderthedevelopmentofCOVID-19vaccines.InlateDecember2019,thefirstCOVID-19caseswerereportedbyChinesehealthofficials.ByJanuary10,scientistshadpublishedthegenomicsequenceofSARS-CoV-2,andbymid-March,vaccinetrialshadbegun.238,239Bytheendof2020,multiplemRNAvaccinesforCOVID-19demonstratingover90%efficacyhadbeencreated.Thesevaccinesweredevelopedatunprecedentedspeed(often,thisprocesscouldtakeoveradecade),largelyduetoadvancesincomputationalimmunologyusedtodevelopvaccinecandidates—andvirtualcommunicationandcollaborationtechnologiesprovedcriticalaswell.240,241Whatthisachievementdemonstratedisthatcertaintechnologiescouldacceleratethescience-technologyfeedbackloopfasterthananyoneknew.Thedigitaltechnologiesthathadbeenamplifyingbusinesscapabilitiesforyearswerefocusedonanewdomain:science-ledinnovation.Itradicallyreshapedourapproachtoscientificinnovation,fromhowquicklywecanachieveresultstoitspotentialimpactonenterprisesandourlives—abigbangofcomputingandscience.Now,withtheworldlargelyemergingfromthecrisis,we’reputtingthoselessonstowork.Everyorganizationneedstostartrethinkingtheirinnovationstrategieswithaneyetohowtechnologyisdrivingscience,andhowsciencewillinturndrivetechnologyincomingyears.Thespeedofthescience-technologyfeedbackloopisoneofthebiggestvariablessettingthepaceofinnovation,andinvestmentsinthetechnologiestoaccelerateitareofglobalexecutivesagreethecombinatorialeffectofscienceandtechnologydrivingeachotherisleadingtocompressedinnovationinsciencetech.96%IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier86#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsonlyincreasing,bringingnewinnovationpossibilities—andnewopportunity—toeveryone.It’sawide-rangingimperative,butalreadythereareafewkeydomainswherethescience-technologyfeedbackloopishavinggreatimpactandwherebusinessescanstarttofocustheirinnovationefforts.Onesuchareaissyntheticbiology,anditsoriginisaprimeexampleofjusthowpowerfulthescience-technologyfeedbackloopcanbe.TomKnightisconsideredthegodfatherofsyntheticbiology,buthebeganasacomputerscientist.242WhiledesigningoneofthefirstsiliconretinasforhisPhD,hebeganinvestigatingMoore’sLaw,ortheobservationthatthenumberoftransistorsonanintegratedcircuitdoubleseverytwoyears,makingcomputepowergrowexponentially.HesawthateventuallyMoore’sLawwouldcometoanend—becausetransistorswouldbesosmallthatplacingadozenorsoatomscorrectlywouldbeimpossibleinthesiliconmanufacturingprocess.ThiswaswhatledKnighttobiochemistry,becauseherecognizedthatifproteinsnaturallyandaccuratelyself-assemble,perhapstherightbio-moleculescouldtoo.Atthesametime,Knightrealizedthewaysinwhich,conversely,biologycouldbenefitfromengineeringprinciples,likeusingmodularizationandabstractiontobuildbiologicalsystems.243Andindeedthisapproachhasexpeditedthegrowthofsyntheticbiology—afieldnowpoisedtodisruptmaterialsandmanufacturingasweknowthemtoday.Besidestheemergentfieldofsyntheticbiology,othernotabledomainsarealsoseeingmajoradvancesfromthescience-technologyfeedbackloop.Forinstance,next-generationcomputingmethods,enabledbythecombinationofincreasedcomputingpowerandnewcapabilitiesinspiredbyscience,arestartingtounlocknewscientificpossibilitiesinareaslikecomputationalchemistryfornewmaterialsandenergysolutions.Advancesinrocketandsatellitetechnologiesarealsoredefiningthespaceeconomy,enablingmorescienceexperimentsinspacelabs,aswellasthestudyofdeepspaceandEarthitself.Advancesinrocketandsatellitetechnologiesarealsoredefiningthespaceeconomy,enablingmorescienceexperimentsinspacelabs,aswellasthestudyofdeepspaceandEarthitself.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier87#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThepoweroftechnologyisextendingbeyondIT(informationtech)andOT(operationaltech)toanewST(sciencetech)domain.Everyonewillbeimpactedbysciencetech,whetherornottheyworkinthephysicalsciencesorbuildthetechnologiestoacceleratethosefields.Newtechnologicaladvancesincomputing,rocketsandsatellites,andbiotechwilldrivescientificadvancementsinmaterialsandenergy,Earthandspace,andsyntheticbiology—whichinturnwilltransformthetechnologiesthatenterprisescanbuild,aspartofavirtuouscycle.Everythingfromwherecompaniescandeliversolutions,towhattheirproductsandpackagingandotherphysicalassetsaremadeof,couldchange.Andbeyondthat,thesocietalneedforafasterscience-technologyfeedbackloophasneverbeenmorecrucial.Theworldfacesunprecedentedchallengesinmedicine,thesupplychain,andclimatechange,andweneedbetterandfastersolutionsfromscienceandtechnology.Reorientingforanewperiodofscienceandtechnologyaccelerationwillnotbeeasy.Itwillrequiredeepunderstandingofhowtechnologyisacceleratingthesciences,andhowthesechangeswillimpactyourbusiness.Anditwillrequirefastactiontoo—innovationcompressionhasalreadybeenachallengeforthepastfewyears,andthepaceofinnovationisonlygettingfaster.Areyoureadyforit?Everyonewillbeimpactedbysciencetech,whetherornottheyworkinthephysicalsciencesorbuildthetechnologiestoacceleratethosefields.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier88#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThetechnologyManyoftoday’semergingtechnologieshavethepotentialtoacceleratethescience-technologyfeedbackloop—soit’scriticalforcompaniestostartidentifyingwhichonescouldhavethebiggestpotentialimpactsonscientificadvancement,andinturn,whichscientificadvancementscouldhavethebiggestimpactsonfuturetechnologies.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier89#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsWhiletherearemanyareaswherescience-technologyfeedbackloopscandriveinnovation,wewilldiscussthreeearlydomainswherethecycleissignificantlyacceleratingandweareseeingitsimpactalready:materialsandenergy,Earthandspace,andbiology.MaterialsandenergyMajortechnologicaladvancesincomputingarelaunchinganeweraofcomputationalchemistry,amajordriverbehindmaterialandenergyinnovation.244Withaccesstogreatercomputepowerandnewcomputingparadigms,chemistswillbeabletodomorecomplexandmoreaccuratemolecularsimulationsthaneverbefore,deepeningscientificunderstandingandpushingtheboundsofnovelmaterialdevelopment,energysolutionstoaddressclimatechange,andmore.Considerthis:performingmorethanonequintillionoperationspersecond,asupercomputerinChinaappearstohavebeenthefirsttobreaktheexascalebarrierin2021.245AndinMay2022,asupercomputerfromtheU.S.OakRidgeNationalLaboratorybecamethefirsttoofficiallydemonstrateexascaleperformance,accordingtoresearchersfortheTop500,arankingoftheworld’smostpowerfulhigh-performancecomputers.246Withplansformoreexascalemachinesaroundtheworld,thisscaleofcomputepowerwilltransformscience,andcomputationalchemistryinparticular.Theimportanceofthisknowledgeshouldn’tbeunderstated.Takingstrategicadvantageofthesedevelopmentswillbewhatletsenterprisestransformtheirbusinessesincomingyears,andultimatelythefuturesoftheirindustries.Chemistswillbeabletorunfastersimulationsoverlargermolecularsystemsandoverlongerlengthsoftime,providingneededinsightsintochemicaltheorytoreducethegapsbetweenvirtualsimulationsandreal-worldexperimentalfindings.Whiletherightcodewouldstillbeneededtotakeadvantageofthiscomputingpower,someprogramslikeNWChemExarealreadybeingdeveloped—inthiscasetoruncomplexmolecularsimulationstobetterusecatalyticmaterialstomoresustainablyproducebiofuels.247Theimpactthatpowerfulsupercomputersarestartingtohaveonthesciencesisundeniable—butit’snotlimitless.There’stheendofMoore’sLawtokeepinmind,meaningthatthegrowthofcomputepowerisslowing—andtotheextentthatitgrows,costsmaybecomeprohibitivelyhigh.Assuch,methodstoovercomethesecomputinglimitsarealsogrowing,includingmovingtoentirelynewcomputingparadigmslikequantumcomputing.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier90#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsQuantumcomputershavea“natural”advantage(overclassicalcomputers)insimulatingquantummechanics,whichgovernsthebehaviorofmolecules,atoms,andelectrons.Assuch,itiscontributingtothefieldofchemistry,inperhapsthenearest-termapplicationofquantumcomputers.248Thoughcomputationalspeedupsmaycomewithquantumcomputers,whattheyprovideinthiscaseisanadvantageouslevelofaccuracyinmodelingdistinctpartsofachemicalreaction—andthisenhancedunderstandinghasmanypotentialapplications.Forinstance,HyundaiispartneringwiththequantumcomputingstartupIonQtoanalyzeandsimulatebatterymaterials—inthiscaselithiumoxide,containedinlithium-airbatteries.249Usinghybridalgorithmsthatleveragecomputingbybothclassicalandquantumcomputers,theycanimprovethechemicalmakeupforgreaterefficiencyandeliminatepossiblesourcesofwaste.ofglobalexecutivesbelievenext-generationcomputingwillbeamajordriverofbreakthroughsintheirindustryoverthenextdecade.95%Buildingsupercomputersandquantumcomputersisnotcheap,butexperimentingwiththemissignificantlycheaperthanbefore,thankstocloudplatforms.FireflyAerospace,forinstance,isastartupthatreliesoncloudsupercomputingtodoadvancedsimulationstosavemassiveamountsofmoneyonprototyping,enablingthemtobuildarockettogotothemoon.250Andwhilequantumcomputingstillneedstimetomature,it’sclearthatthesecomputershaveamajorroletoplayhelpingcompanieseffectivelydrivesciencetechnologyfeedbackloopsandacceleratematerialsandenergyinnovation.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier91#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsEarthandspaceMovingovertoEarthandspaceinnovation—sincetheInternationalSpaceStation(ISS)begantohouseitsfirstastronauts,nearly3,000scienceexperimentshavebeenconductedinspace,takingadvantageofitsuniqueconditionslikemicrogravitytobetterunderstandhowthingswork,orofitsvantagepointtolookdownatEarthoroutintothedepthsofspace.251Now,advancesinrocketandsatellitetechnologiesaremakingspacemoreaccessibleandusefulforscientists—acceleratingwhatwecanlearnaboutfluidphysics,diseases,materials,climatechange,andmore,toimprovelifeonEarth.Spaceprogramswerehistoricallyveryexpensive,limitingaccesstoonlyafewnationsandtheirgovernments.Recentlyhowever,duetocheapercomponentsandgrowthintheprivatesector,costshavefallenprecipitously.252Accordingtoa2022Citireport,between1970to2010,theaveragelaunchcostremainedrelativelysteadyat$16,000/kgforheavypayloadsand$30,000/kgforlightpayloads.253Thenin2010,SpaceXlaunchedFalcon9withapayloadcostof$2,500/kg,roughlytentimescheaper—andgettingcheaperstill.254Relatedly,thecostofsatelliteshasalsodecreaseddrastically.Now,ratherthancosthundredsofthousandsofdollarstogetintoorbit,itcantakeonlyacouplethousand—alsothankstotheirsmallersize.255,256Alltheseloweredcostsarefuelingthespaceindustry.257In2021,spaceinfrastructurecompaniessawrecordhighprivateinvestmentsat$14.5billion(up50%from2020),andtheindustryoverallisexpectedtogenerateover$1trillioninannualsalesby2040.258,259Withthislevelofgrowthandinvestment,therewillonlybecheaperandmorefrequentflightstospace,leadingtomorepeopleandmorescientificresearchthereaswell.260Already,thestartupTitanSpaceTechnologiesissending“bothcodeandcrew”onspacemissionstoconductexperimentsintheirdigitalspacelabs,essentiallyenabling“space-as-a-service”forcompaniesthatwanttoperformtheirownexperimentsinspace.261ThisisexcitingforthosewhomightwanttotakeadvantageoftheIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier92#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsuniquepropertiesofspace—includingmicrogravity,extremetemperatures,oravacuum—forresearchintoadvancedmaterials,pharmaceuticals,andmuchmore.Thishashistoricallybeenkeytogaininggreaterscientificknowledge—sincetheearlydaysofspaceexperimentation,scientistshavebeenabletolearnmuchmoreaboutinsulin,forinstance,becauseitwascrystallizedinspace(inmicrogravity,proteincrystalsgrowlargerandmoreuniformly).262Satelliteadvancesarepushingscienceforwardtoo.Launchedin2018aboardaSpaceXFalcon9,NASA’sTransitingExoplanetSurveySatellite(TESS)isexpandingscientists’knowledgeofthegalaxy.263By2020,TESShadimaged75%oftheskyand,insodoing,found66newexoplanetsand2,100candidates.264Nowonanextendedmission,itsimagingcadencehasbeenincreasedtobetterfindEarth-likehabitableplanetsnearreddwarfstars—andithasfoundoneofparticularinterest(TOI700d)already.265TurningourattentiontoEarth,satelliteslikeJason-3takeoceansurfacetopographymeasurementsforscientiststobetterunderstandsealevelriseandclimatechange,aswellastopredictsevereweatherevents.266Andnewbusinessmodelslike“satellite-as-a-service”and“spacedata-as-a-service”areprovidingevengreateraccesstospace,whichcouldbeleveragedbyresearcherstoo.267Rocketandsatellitetechnologyadvanceshavedrivendownthecostbarrierstospace,fuelingaburgeoningspaceeconomythatishavingrealandsignificantimpactonthesciences,openingthedoorstospacelabsforconductingnovelexperimentsandsatellitesforfindingnewworldsandunderstandingmoreofourown.Ashistoryhasshownusbefore,sciencediscoveriesinspaceleadtotechnologicalprogressonEarth—andperhapsnowinspaceaswell—aspartofaproductivescience-technologyfeedbackloop.Now,advancesinrocketandsatellitetechnologiesaremakingspacemoreaccessibleandusefulforscientists—acceleratingwhatwecanlearnaboutfluidphysics,diseases,materials,climatechange,andmore,toimprovelifeonEarth.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier93#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsBiologyLastly,this“bigbang”ofcomputingandscienceisgivinglifetoanentirelynewfield:syntheticbiology.DrivenforwardbytechnologicaladvancesinDNAsequencingandsynthesisandtechnology-inspiredbestpractices,syntheticbiologycombinesengineeringprincipleswithbiologytocreateneworganismsorenhanceexistingones.Itspromiseliesinwhatthoseorganismsarethenabletodoorproduce,fromnewfoodstopharmaceuticals,fuels,andmore—therebychangingmanufacturingprocessesandproductsasweknowthemtoday.ArecentarticlepublishedinScientificReportpredictsthatsyntheticbiologymaybethenextmajoradvancementfollowingmicroelectronicsandtheinternet,andoneofthemainreasonsforthisisthatthecostofbothDNAsequencingandDNAsynthesis(the“reading”and“writing”ofgeneticcode)ishalvingroughlyeverytwoyears.268Togetasense,in2001,thecosttosequenceahumangenomewas$100million,anditisroughly$600today(andcouldbeaslittleas$100nextyear);tenyearsago,genesynthesiscostabout$10/basepairandisnowabout$0.10/basepairtoday.269,270Thesefallingcostshavehadasignificantimpactonsyntheticbiology—becausebothDNAsequencingandDNAsynthesisarecriticaltotheprocess.Toillustrate,let’simagineacompanywantstoproducesyntheticvanilla.First,theygothroughtheir(nowmuchlarger)databaseofDNAsequencestodeterminewhichmightbemostlikelytogeneratethatflavor.271Next,themostpromisingare(morecheaply)synthesizedandputintocells,likeyeastcells.Theneworganismsstartproducingchemicals,andwhicheverisbestisincreasedinproduction.Withthismanufacturingprocessdetermined,thecompanyissettoproducesyntheticvanillaflavoring.Ofcourse,mostbusinessescannotdothisontheirown—buttheycouldworkwithacompanylikeGinkgoBioworks,aone-stop-shopforsyntheticbiology,todoso.GinkgoprovidesthetechnologyIntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier94#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsplatform,includingbothitscodebaseandfoundries(labs),foritscustomers.272Itscodebaseconsistsofcells,enzymes,andgeneticprograms,whichorganismengineerscanusetostartprojects.Andthefoundriesareitsfactories,whichcombineautomation,analytics,andsoftwaretoautomateandscaleorganismengineering.Notsurprisingly,Ginkgo’swebsitedrawsmanyparallelstosoftwareengineering,anditsplatformhasbeenlikenedtocloudplatformslikeAWS.Anotherexampleofsyntheticbiologybeingdrivenbytechnology-inspiredpracticescomesfromtheBioBricksFoundation.Theorganizationisattemptingtoestablishanopen-sourcesyntheticbiologymovement,inspiredbytheopen-sourcesoftwaremovement,throughprogramslikebionet,whichisanopentechnologycommonsforscientiststosharetheirmaterialsinthenameofcollaboration,standardization,andsharingforscience.273,274Inshort,syntheticbiologyasweknowittodayhasclearcomputerscience-andengineering-inspiredorigins.Thougharelativelynewfield,syntheticbiologyisbeingusedalready.It’swell-knownforaidinginthedevelopmentoftheCOVID-19vaccine,butit’salsousedbyBoltThreadstomakebio-basedleatherandUpsideFoodstoproducesyntheticmeatlikeduck,beef,andchicken.275,276,277Syntheticbiologytechniquescanalsobeusedtomakedyes,cosmetics,andspices.Notonlyarethesenewandinnovativeproducts,buttheyaremoreenvironmentallyfriendlyandsustainablethantheiralternatives.FrommaterialsandenergytoEarthandspaceandbio-innovation,thesethreedomainsarejustafewearlywaysthesciencetechnologyfeedbackloopisalreadyatwork.Andeachofthemhashugepotentialimpactonthefuturesofcompaniesandindustries.Asmorecompaniesstarttorecognizethatandtakeadvantageoftechnology-drivenscientificadvances,thebuildingblocksofinnovationwillstarttochange,andstragglerswillquicklybeleftbehind.DrivenforwardbytechnologicaladvancesinDNAsequencingandsynthesisandtechnology-inspiredbestpractices,syntheticbiologycombinesengineeringprincipleswithbiologytocreateneworganismsorenhanceexistingones.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier95#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsTheimplicationsNowthatwe’vecoveredsomeofthemostsignificantscience-technologyfeedbackloopstoday,weneedtothinkabouthowtheseadvanceswillimpactourworld—andwhatisnewlypossibleinit.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier96#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsIt’scriticalthatbusinessesunderstandthescopeofthisnewfrontier,ortheyriskfailingtosetacompetitiveinnovationstrategyandpaceforthenextyears.Whiletheacceleratedfeedbackloopwillnotbethesoledriverofnewinnovations—purelytechnology-drivenIT,OT,anddigitalprojectsarestillveryimportant—STisstilltoobigforanyonetoignore.Theimpactwillbefeltbyeveryone.Todoubledownonexactlyhowbigthisimpactcouldbe,considerwhatitcouldmeanforsomeoftheworld’sbiggestproblems,likepandemics,climatechange,andthesupplychain.Ifthey’renotalready,thesewillbesomeofbusinesses’biggestproblemsincomingyearstoo,meaningtheyshouldhaveavestedinterestinsciencetechnologyandthevastinnovationopportunitiesthatcomewithit.In2020,ofcourse,businesseslearnedthatpandemicsareaseriousthreattopeopleandthemselves.We’vediscussedhowtheCOVID-19pandemicpromptedswiftactiontodevelopavaccine—andcomputationalapproachesvastlyincreasedthespeedatwhichthiswaspossible.278Stillthough,newCOVID-19variantscontinuetoemerge.Whileourvaccinescanbeupdated,researchersatPennStateCollegeofMedicineareworkingonabettersolution—avaccinethatcouldprotectagainstallexistingandfuturevariantsofthevirus—andsciencetechisattheheartoftheirefforts.279Unlikeexistingvaccinesthattargetthereceptorbindingdomain(RBD),theseresearchersaretargetingthevirusthroughimmunogens—designedusingcomputationalbiologytoidentifyregionsofthespikeproteinthatremainthesamedespitemutations,andtestedforstabilityusingcomputersimulations.Giventhatpandemic-capablediseasesareincreasinginfrequency,thespeedofvaccinedevelopmentandthebreadthofimmunitythosevaccinesprovidewillbeofcriticalimportancethroughouttheworld.280Movingontoclimatechange,ofallthechallengestheworldfacestoday,thismaybethebiggest.Sustainabilityiscertainlyonmostbusinesses’radars,andalloftheareaswe’vediscussed,frommaterialsandenergytospaceinnovationsandsyntheticbiology,havethepotentialtocontributetosustainabilityinasignificantway.Forexample,Accenture,theIrishCentreforHigh-EndComputing(ICHEC),andIonQcollaboratedtocreateascalablesoftwareplatformforchemistrysimulationonquantumcomputers.ItisusedtocalculatetheenergyneededtobreakchemicalbondsinmoleculeslikePFAS—helpingtofindmechanismstodestroyPFAS,whicharehuman-madecarcinogenic“foreverchemicals”thatpollutetheenvironment.281AndLanzaTechisusingsyntheticbiologytomakemicrobesthattakecarbonemissionsandturnthemintovaluablerawmaterialslikefuelsandchemicals.282Andconsiderhowsyntheticbiologyfacilitiescanbestrategicallyplacednearfossilfuelplantsorother...ofallthechallengestheworldfacestoday,climatechangemaybethebiggest.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier97#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitswasteheavysitesforfuel—thiswouldmaketheirrawmaterialsourcesabundantandnolongerpotentiallyvulnerabletoglobalsupplychainissues.Inaddition,becausethesefacilitiesproduceuniquematerials,aproductlikevanillanolongerhastocomealmostentirelyfromMadagascarbutcanbemadesyntheticallyanywhereintheworld.Finally,relativelysmall-scalemanufacturingofthingslikesyntheticproteinsourcesiseconomicallyviable(noneedforyearsofanimalfarming)—meaningthatagain,demandsonglobalsupplychainsarereduced,asaretransportationemissions.283Ourworldfacesimmensechallenges,manyofwhichhavebeendifficultandpainfullyslowtoaddressinthepast.Butthisistheultimatepromiseofsciencetech—asmorecompaniesinvestinthetechnologiesneededtoacceleratescience,morecompanieswillbeabletousethosescientificdevelopmentstocreatenewsolutionsfasterandmoreeffectivelythaneverbefore.Itwon’thappenovernight,butthebenefitsarenecessaryandworthwhile,andhavethepotentialtobeinvaluableforthebusinessesthatgetinvolved.ofexecutivesbelievesciencetechcapabilitiescouldhelpaddresssocietalgrandchallengesofhealth-relatedissuesanddiseases,while75%believesciencetechcapabilitiescouldalsohelpaddresspoverty/inequality.83%IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier98#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsFirst,businessesthatwanttobemoreactiveparticipantsindevelopingthesenext-generationtechnologies,andthesciencestheydrive,shouldrecognizethatcollaborationisthekey.Next-generationcomputingtechnologieslikequantumcomputingarenotonlyadvancedandcomplexbutrequireskillsthatarehardtofindandinhighdemand.Therefore,organizationsacrossindustriesandsectorsarepursuingquantumcomputinggoalstogetherthroughconsortiums.Forexample,inJapan,theQuantumInnovationInitiativeCouncil(QIIC)aimstoaccelerateJapan’squantumleadershipandconsistsofmembersfromacademicinstitutions,government,andbusinesseslikeIBM,Toyota,andToshiba.284Andthissortofcollaborationcanalsobeachievedthroughstrategicpartnerships.Forinstance,thequantumalgorithmdesignplatformClassiqhaspartneredwithColdQuantaforitscoldatomtechnology,NVIDIAforitscuQuantumsoftwaredevelopmentkit,andNTTDATAforaspecificapplicationofquantumcomputingtocreditriskanalysis.285GettingstartedtodayStill,gettinginvolvedinthesciencetechnologyrevolutioniseasiersaidthandone.Manynewtechnologiesarealreadyatworkacceleratingthescience-technologyfeedbackloop,andthechangesthiswillbringtoourinnovationlandscapearecomingfast.Compoundingthechallengeisthatunlikethedigitalrevolution,companiesarestartingatwildlydifferentlevelsofmaturity.Someenterprises,likethoseinpharmaceuticalsorchemicals,havelong-standingscience-ledinnovationpractices.Thesecompanieswillknowthevalueofmaintainingtheirpositionontheleadingedge,exploreandinvestinemergentdigitaltechnologiesthatwillacceleratetheirpractices,andjumpontheopportunitythatsciencetechposestobuildpartnershipsandbridgesintobrandnewindustries.Othercompanieshaveneverconsideredthemselvesinvolvedinthesciencesatall.Forthem,therearethreehigh-levelactionstotaketodaytosetthemselvesupforsuccessinthisnextphaseofinnovationcompression.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier99#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsquantumcomputingyettobeexplored,thissortofexperimentationisbeneficialtobusinessesandthefieldasawhole.Andintermsoftryingnewthingsinspace,AmazonrecentlypartneredwiththeItaliansatellitecompanyD-OrbitandtheSwedishintelligentautomationcompanyUnibaptoconducta“first-of-its-kind”experimentinspace—runningasuiteofAWSsoftwareonasatelliteinlowEarthorbit.290TheAWSsoftwarewastrainedtoreviewimagesandsendonlythemostusefultoEarth,improvingtheproductivityofthesatelliteinspaceandreducingtheamountoftimetogetinsightsontheground.Finally,businessesalsoneedtobeawareofandpreparefortherisksinthisnewfrontier.Advancesandincreasedaccesstosyntheticbiologycouldleadtodangerouslaboratoryleaksorbiologicalweaponsabuse,forinstance.291Thishighlightstheneedforsubstantialbiosecuritystrategies.Andwhileclearerlegalregulationsarestillneeded,companiescantaketheirownstepsnowtoimplementpoliciesandgovernanceplansandviewbiosecurityasaninvestmentratherthanaburden.Intheemergingfieldofsyntheticbiology,therearemanypartnershipsaswell.Forinstance,thesyntheticbiologycompanyCodexishaspartnershipswithpharmaceuticalcompanieslikeMerck,GSK,andNovartiswhouseitsCodeEvolver®proteinengineeringplatformtodevelopenzymestoenhancetheirpharmaceuticalmanufacturingprocesses.286AndGinkgoBioworksisworkingwithMotifFoodWorkstodevelopnoveldairy,meat,andplant-basedproteins—andbringthesenewfoodproductstomarketfaster.287Thesecondwaybusinessescanpreparethemselvesistofindwaystostartexperimentingwithnewscience-driveninnovations.Fortunately,thisisgettingeasierwiththemanyadvancedtechnologyandscienceplatformsbeingcreated.Asanexample,MicrosoftisworkingwithNASA’sJetPropulsionLaboratory(JPL)todevelopschedulingsolutionsusingquantum-inspiredoptimizationalgorithmsonAzureQuantum,availableinthecloud.288AndGooglehascreatedaQuantumVirtualMachinethatanyonecanuseandthatisspecificallyintendedforresearchandeducation.289GiventherearemanynewandexcitingpotentialapplicationsforNext-generationcomputingtechnologieslikequantumcomputingarenotonlyadvancedandcomplexbutrequireskillsthatarehardtofindandinhighdemand.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier100#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsAnotherserioussecurityissueforeverybusinessstemsfromquantumcomputing.Shor’salgorithmprovidesaquantum-theoreticalsolutiontoprimefactorization,whichcanbreakpublic-keyencryptionthatwerelyontoday.Quantumcomputerssimplyaren’tadvancedenoughyettodoso,butthey’regettingthereatabreakneckpace.292Whilesomebelievequantumcomputerswillbreakencryptioninthenext10to20years,therealityisthatsmaller,moretargetedattackswillhappensoon,andcompanieswillneedtohaveplanstoaddressthisinthenexttwoyears.Already,thereareseriousconcernsthathackersarecollectingdatanowtodecryptlateroncequantumcomputingisready,alsoreferredtoas“storenow,decryptlater”schemes.Currently,NISThasidentifiedsomequantum-resistantalgorithms,butpredictionsontheirviablelifecyclevary.Whatweknowisthatthesealgorithmswillnotlast20yearsandwehavetobeagilewithcryptographicmethods,readytoupgradeatanytime.Inthemeantime,companiesshouldpreparetotransitiontopost-quantumcryptographyandpotentiallyinvestincountermeasurestoreducetheimmediatethreatfrom“storenow,decryptlater”threats.Oneofthesecountermeasuresistoprotectthedistributionofkeys,andhere,quantumcomputingbecomesoursecurityally.Forexample,inearly2022,researchersfromJPMorganChase,Toshiba,andCienademonstratedthefullviabilityofaQuantumKeyDistribution(QKD)network,supporting800Gbpsdatarates—showingthatunderreal-worldenvironmentalconditions,thisnetworkcouldenablesecurecommunicationsandsuccessfullydefendagainstquantumcomputing-basedattacks.293Asthepositivefeedbackloopbetweenscienceandtechnologyaccelerates,understandingboththerisksandtheopportunitiesaheadiscritical.Companiesaregoingtowanttogetinvolvedinthiscompressedinnovation,andsoon.There’snolongertimetositbackandwait,thebigbangofcomputingandscienceishappeningnow.Companiesaregoingtowanttogetinvolvedinthiscompressedinnovation,andsoon.There’snolongertimetositbackandwait,thebigbangofcomputingandscienceishappeningnow.#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsThebottomlineSciencetechneedstobeoneveryone’sradar.Advancesinnext-generationcomputing,spacetechnologies,andbiotechwilldriveprogressinmaterialsandenergyinnovation,scienceinspaceforEarth,andsyntheticbiologyinanincrediblyexcitingtimeforpeople,businesses,andtheworld.Indeed,aschallengeslikepandemicsandclimatechangeareevermorepresent,it’stimetoinvestinandfullyunleashthepromiseofcompressedinnovationandacceleratedscienceandtechnologycycles,astheyevolveandrevolveovertime,drivingeachotherforwardintothefuture.101IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits102AbouttheTechnologyVisionAbouttheTechnologyVisionFormorethan20years,AccenturehasdevelopedtheTechnologyVisionreportasasystematicreviewacrosstheenterpriselandscapetoidentifyemergingtechnologytrendsthatwillhavethegreatestimpactoncompanies,governmentagencies,andotherorganizationsinthecomingyears.Thisyearthetrendslookadecadeintothefuture,whileremainingrelevantacrossindustriesandactionableforbusinessestoday.TechnologyVision2023103#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsTechnologyVision2023Editorial&ResearchTeamAccentureResearchReneeByrnesPrashantShuklaGerryFarkovaDonovanGriggsAmmarMohammedAbiraSathiyanathanVincenzoPalermoTalRodedMariuszBidelskiLauraConversoSelenKaraca-GriffinMichaelBiltzAriBernsteinJulianDreimanMariaFabbroniNaomiNishiharaKristaSchnellDavidStrachan-OlsonAbouttheTechnologyVisionAccentureLabsandAccentureResearchcollaborateontheannualresearchprocess,whichthisyearincluded:•InputfromtheTechnologyVisionExternalAdvisoryBoard,agroupofmorethantwodozenexperiencedindividualsfromthepublicandprivatesectors,academia,venturecapital,andentrepreneurialcompanies.Inaddition,theTechnologyVisionteamconductsinterviewswithtechnologyluminariesandindustryexperts,aswellasmanyAccenturebusinessleadersfromacrosstheorganization.•Accentureconductedasurveyof4,777C-levelexecutivesanddirectorsacross25industriestounderstandtheirperspectivesanduseofemergingtechnologiesacrosstheirorganizations.ThesurveyswerefieldedfromDecember2022throughJanuary2023across34countries.•Experientialresearchanddatasciencetoanalyzetechnologydevelopmentsandadvancements.Asashortlistofthemesemergesfromtheresearchprocess,theTechnologyVisionteamworkstovalidateandrefinethesetoftrends.Thethemesareweighedfortheirrelevancetoreal-worldbusinesschallenges.TheTechnologyVisionteamseeksideasthattranscendthewell-knowndriversoftechnologicalchange,concentratinginsteadonthethemesthatwillsoonstarttoappearontheC-levelagendasofmostenterprises.IntroductionDigitalidentityYourdata,mydata,ourdataGeneralizingAIOurforeverfrontier#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBits#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsSurveydemographicsArgentina3%Australia4%Austria2%Belgium2%Brazil4%Canada5%Chile2%China5%Colombia2%Denmark2%Finland2%France3%Germany4%India4%Indonesia2%Ireland2%Italy4%Japan4%Malaysia2%Mexico2%Netherlands2%Norway2%Poland2%Portugal2%SaudiArabia2%Singapore2%SouthAfrica3%Spain4%Sweden2%Switzerland2%Thailand2%UnitedArabEmirates2%UnitedKingdom4%UnitedStates16%CountriesSurveydemographics104105#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsHighTech4%HigherEducation(US)4%IndustrialGoodsandEquipment6%Insurance6%MediaandEntertainment2%MedTech1%NaturalResources4%PublicService6%Retail6%SoftwareandPlatforms4%Travel3%Utilities4%IndustriesAerospaceandDefense1%Automotive5%Banking6%Biopharma1%CapitalMarkets3%CentralGovernment(CA)1%Chemicals5%Communications4%ConsumerGoodsandServices6%Energy4%FederalGovernment(US)4%HealthcarePayor(US)2%HealthProvider6%Revenue(USD)$50billionormore2%$20to$49.9billion6%$10to$19.9billion14%$5to$9.9billion27%$1to$4.9billion50%RolesChiefDigitalOfficer1%ChiefExecutiveOfficer5%ChiefFinanceOfficer10%ChiefHumanResourcesOfficer12%ChiefInformationOfficer5%ChiefInformationSecurityOfficer8%ChiefInnovationOfficer2%ChiefMarketingOfficer13%ChiefOperatingOfficer9%ChiefPurchasingOfficer1%ChiefRiskOfficer2%ChiefSecurityOfficer4%ChiefStrategyOfficer4%ChiefSupplyChainOfficer2%ChiefSustainabilityOfficer2%ChiefTechnologyOfficer4%ChiefTransformationOfficer1%DirectorofBusinessFunction6%DirectorofTechnology8%27%14%6%2%50%Surveydemographics106#TechVisionTechnologyVision2023WhenAtomsmeetBitsExecutivesummary1.Neurotwin.(n.d.):https://www.neurotwin.eu/2.Consoritum.(n.d.)Neurotwin:https://www.neurotwin.eu/consortium3.Browne,G.(2022,February15).TheQuesttoMakeaDigitalReplicaofYourBrain.Wired:https://www.wired.com/story/the-quest-to-make-a-digital-replica-of-your-brain/4.Anheuser-Busch&EverGrainCelebrateOpeningOfTheFirstMajorSiteOfU.S.Operations.(2022,June30).Anheuser-Busch:https://www.anheuser-busch.com/newsroom/2022/06/evergrain-opening/5.Shoup,M.E.(2022,July7).Anheuser-Busch&EverGrainCelebrateOpeningOfTheFirstMajorSiteOfU.S.Operations.FoodNavigator-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