2023巴西能源市场概况-39页VIP专享VIP免费

Brazil Intro &
Energy Landscape
April 17, 2023
Part I
Brazil
4
Part II A
Brazilian Energy Landscape (Mature Markets)
10
Part II B
Brazilian Energy Landscape (New Technologies)
17
CONTENT
QUICK SURVEY
GETTING TO KNOW
OUR AUDIENCE
How well do you know
the Brazilian Energy Market?
1. Pretty well
2. Just the basics
3. Not really, am here to learn!
Is your Company active
in Brazil?
1. Yes, with a significant investment/position
2. Yest, but not meaningful in the global portfolio
3. No, but it is part of the strategy to be there
4. No and no plans to be there at the moment
Brazil–Intro&EnergyLandscapeApril17,2023PartIBrazil4PartIIABrazilianEnergyLandscape(MatureMarkets)10PartIIBBrazilianEnergyLandscape(NewTechnologies)17CONTENTQUICKSURVEYGETTINGTOKNOWOURAUDIENCEHowwelldoyouknowtheBrazilianEnergyMarket?1.Prettywell2.Justthebasics3.Notreally,amheretolearn!IsyourCompanyactiveinBrazil?1.Yes,withasignificantinvestment/position2.Yest,butnotmeaningfulintheglobalportfolio3.No,butitispartofthestrategytobethere4.NoandnoplanstobethereatthemomentPARTIBRAZILBrazilonaComparativeBasisWhatwewouldliketobe•Stablepoliticalsystemandenvironment•SustainableGDPgrowthreducinginequality•Investmentgrade,stablecurrency•AdheringtheWashingtonConventionandSigningBITs•ClearpathforgrowthWhatsetsusapartfrommoretroublingcountries•Strongandindependentinstitutionsprovidechecks-and-balances•>$300Biinexternalreserves,inflationundercontrol,solidlocalcapitalmarket•RuleofLawandlegalprotectiontoinvestments(bumpynonetheless…)•Welcomingtoforeigninvestors(no-Cifiustypeofcontrol)andfriendlytohydrocarbons•OECDagendaBrazilVs.Neighbors(GDP2022,USD)$1,6T$314,5B$106,2B$223,2B$40,4B$487,2B$3B$317,1B$39,5B$59,3BBrazilataGlancePOPULATION214MM(6thlargest)NoreligiousorsectarianconflictsRelativelyyoungpopulation;pensionreformrelievedthesystemBrazil(2012Vs.2021)POPULATIONPYRAMIDSource:IBGENATURALRESOURCESAbundanceofsoil,sunlight,water(15%ofglobalavailability)Worstnaturaleventsareheavyrainsanddroughts–noearthquakes,tornados,icingStillplentyofareaswithcheaplandtoexploreTheBrazilianEconomy•Currently12thlargest(6thin2010)•InflationundercontrolGDPGrowth(%Annual)Source:WorldBank(2010-2021).3statisticsthatsayitall•Richest10%earn59%ofnationalearnings•Poorest50%earn29xlessthantherichest10%•Poorest50%own<1%ofBrazil’swealth;richest1%ownalmosthalf9.1217.5076.7948.8459.1219.8968.868.78312.07112.2582022202120202019201820172016201520142013GDPPerCapita(USD)-Last10YearsGDPPERCAPITA(USD)TheBrazilianEconomy•Brazil(sadly)standsoutininequalityBrazilPoliticalEnvironment12345678DemocraticRepublicFederationwith27statesand+5kmunicipalitiesIndependentelections;4-yearcycles,Fed./StateandLocal,soelectionevery2yearsJudiciaryisindependent–butalsoslowandexpensive;litigatingcultureInexplicablemulti-partysystemcreatedthe“coalitionpresidentialism”Overthelast10years,PresidenthasbecomeweakerascomparedtoCongress,Judiciaryandcontrolling/prosecutingagenciesMostright-wingCongressindecadesExpectedlitigationagainstformerPresidentBolsonaroaiminginabilitytorunforoffice(andsome,jailtime)OverviewofBrazilEnergyMarketLandscapeVinson&ElkinsandMachadoMeyerAdvogadosApril17,2023100.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Oil²NaturalgasCoal³HydroNuclearRenewables⁴Modernbiomass⁵Other⁶Brazil’senergymatrixhasbegunashifttowardrenewables,biomass,andnaturalgas,butoilandhydroremaincritical11Brazil’senergymatrix,2010to2030(MMtoe)DatacompiledJan.9,2023.(1)Primaryenergyconsumptionisthedirectuseofcrudeenergythathasnotbeensubjectedtoanyconversionortransformationprocess.(2)Includesinternationalmarine/aviationbunkers;doesnotincludebiofuels,which,attheprimaryenergylevel,arenotassociatedwithpetroleum.(3)Includessteamandcokingcoal.(4)Includessolar,wind,geothermal,andtide/wave/oceanenergy.(5)Includesbiofuels,biogas,biowaste,woodchips,andwoodpellets.(6)Includessolidwaste,traditionalbiomass(usedinthedomesticsectors;includescharcoal,wood,bagasse),ambientheat,andnettradeofelectricity,hydrogenandheat.Source:S&PGlobalCommodityInsights,ANP,MMEOilNaturalgasCoalHydroNuclearRenewablesModernbiomassOther201041%7%5%13%1%0%27%5%202038%8%5%12%1%3%28%4%203036%10%4%10%2%7%29%3%Shareofthetotalmix(%)020406080100120201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030IndustryAutomotiveResidential/commercial/publicPowergeneration050100150200250300201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030LNGimportsDrygasproductionImportsfromBolivia(pipeline)ImportsfromArgentina(pipeline)Brazil’sgasmarketwillbecomedynamicwithmorediversityofplayersinagradualliberalizationcombinedwithincreasingdomesticsupply,re-energizingdemand12Brazilnaturalgassupplymix,2010–2030(MMcm/d)Brazilnaturalgasdemandmix,2010–2030(MMcm/d)Gasreinjectionremainsakeyissueinprojectinggasavailabletomarketasnon-PetrobrasplayersplayanincreasingroleIndustrialgasdemandcouldseeasurgefromnewsupplyavailabilityDatacompiledJan.9,2023.Source:S&PGlobalCommodityInsights,ANP,MMEIncreasedgassupplyandademandrenaissancecouldspursignificantinfrastructurebuildandcreativesolutionstoconnectgastomarkets13Brazil’snaturalgasinfrastructurePowersectorcapacitygrowthandinvestmentwillbefocusedonsolarandwind,buthighreservemarginscreateuncertaintyaroundfutureregulatedauctions140%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%05010015020025030020102012201420162018202020222024202620282030BatteriesBiomassandwasteSolar—BehindthemeterSolar—GridfacingWindOilNaturalgasCoalHydroNuclearReservemarginBrazilnetcapacityadditionsoutlook(GW)Source:S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsDatacompiledJanuary,2023Grosscapacityadditions(GW)NuclearHydroGeothermalCoalNaturalgasOilWindSolar—GridfacingSolar—BehindthemeterBiomassandwasteBatteries2012–22026.60.02.36.63.121.37.815.55.40.12022–301.41.80.00.011.80.112.227.336.52.90.9COVID-19in2020exacerbatedpoweroversupplyandbroughtuncertaintiestoregulatedmarketthatimpliedinpostponementof2020auctionsto2021Offshorewindisparticularlyhotas>175GWofcapacityhasbeenproposedby22companies,withmorethanahalffromthemajorglobaloffshorewinddevelopers15OffshorewindfarmswithopenenvironmentallicensingprocessMaincompaniesarethetop3largestdevelopersforeachregion.Inadditiontothesecompanies,otherdevelopersinclude:TotalEnergies,Iberdrola,QairEnergy,InternacionalEnergiasRenováveis,Servtec,MonexEnergia,Prumo,CEMIG,VotuWinds,BIEnergia,amongothers.Maincompaniesarethetop3largestdevelopersforeachregion.Inadditiontothesecompanies,otherdevelopersinclude:TotalEnergies,Iberdrola,QairEnergy,InternacionalEnergiasRenováveis,Servtec,MonexEnergia,Prumo,CEMIG,VotuWinds,BIEnergia,amongothers.02040608010012014020222026203020342038OffshorewindOnshorewindSolar01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000OCGTSolarCCGTBiomass(CHP)SHPOnshorewindOffshorewindNuclear2.5timeshigherOffshorewindisverycapital-intensiveandwhileweexpectcoststodecline,significanteconomicsupportandscaleisneeded(asseeninglobalsuccesscases)16Brazilpowerplantcapexestimates,US$/kW,real2021Levelizedcostofenergyoutlookcomparison,US$/Mwh,real2021DatacompiledOct.2022Note:OCGT=Open-cyclegasturbine;CCGT=Combined-cyclegasturbine;CHP=Combinedheatandpower;SHP=Smallhydroproject.LCOE=levelizedcostofelectricity.CAPEX=capitalexpenditure.Estimated.1)FortheLCOEoutlookcomparison,weassumedthesameWACC,transmissioncharges,incomeandsalestaxes,andfees.Source:S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsHighcase:Capacityfactorfrom55%(2022)to59%(2040);Capexfrom3,540$/kW(2022)to2,039$/kW(2040).Lowcase:Capacityfactorfrom62%(2022)to66%(2040);Capexfrom2,803$/kW(2022)to1,614$/kW(2040).Greenhydrogenexportprojectscouldprovideaboostforthelongqueueofrenewableprojects–economicsarecompetitive,but(global)policysupportneeded17Brazilrenewablespipeline&announcedgreenH2hubsCamaçariAçuPecémRioGrandedoNorteAnnouncedHub40GW29GWSuapeWindSolarRegisteredproject’spipeline0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0WindSolarPVOffshorewindNaturalgas(BlueH2)ElectricityWaterFixedO&MCAPEXFuel/feedstockTransport&storageofCO2VarO&MBrazilforecastlevelizedcostofhydrogenbysource(2030)Real2022US$/kgH2Note:Productionof2,000tH2/day;WACC=11%;Considersrecentcostescalation.Forbluehydrogen,considersnaturalgasautothermalreformingwith92%capturerate.Forgreenhydrogen,considersbestlocationsforoffshorewindandsolarPVandPEMelectrolysis.Morethan20MOUsaddingupto~15GWofelectrolyzercapacityhavebeensignedwithportauthoritiesBrazilalsopositionedforCCUS–estimatedcarbonstoragepotentialconcentratedintheaquifersoftheParanáBasin,followedbydepletedfieldsintheCamposBasin1814402861012RecôncavoParanáSergipe-AlagoasCamposPotiguarEspíritoSantoCearáSantosSolimõesParnaíbaCamamu-AlmadaTucanoDepletedGasAquiferDepletedOilMaxDepletedOilmost-likelyBrazilundergroundcarbonstoragepotentialBrazilestimatedCO2storagecapacity1perbasinGtCO2ParanáandCamposhold~95%ofthetotalBrazilianCO2storagepotentialParanáCampos1.HighlevelofuncertaintyexistsontheestimatedaquifersstoragecapacityandtheprovidednumbershouldbetakenasTechnicalStorageCapacity.Duetolittleinformationavailablewe’veonlyconsideredaquiferpotentialintheParanábasin,howeveritispossiblethatadditionalaquiferstoragepotentialisavailableoffshoreandinotheronshorebasins.Source:S&PGlobalDisclaimerTheinformationcontainedinthispresentationisconfidential.Anyunauthorizeduse,disclosure,reproduction,ordissemination,infullorinpart,inanymediaorbyanymeans,withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofS&PGlobaloranyofitsaffiliates("S&PGlobal")isstrictlyprohibited.S&PGlobalownsallS&PGloballogosandtradenamescontainedinthispresentationthataresubjecttolicense.Opinions,statements,estimates,andprojectionsinthispresentation(includingothermedia)aresolelythoseoftheindividualauthor(s)atthetimeofwritinganddonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionsofS&PGlobal.NeitherS&PGlobalnortheauthor(s)hasanyobligationtoupdatethispresentationintheeventthatanycontent,opinion,statement,estimate,orprojection(collectively,"information")changesorsubsequentlybecomesinaccurate.S&PGlobalmakesnowarranty,expressedorimplied,astotheaccuracy,completeness,ortimelinessofanyinformationinthispresentation,andshallnotinanywaybeliabletoanyrecipientforanyinaccuraciesoromissions.Withoutlimitingtheforegoing,S&PGlobalshallhavenoliabilitywhatsoevertoanyrecipient,whetherincontract,intort(includingnegligence),underwarranty,understatuteorotherwise,inrespectofanylossordamagesufferedbyanyrecipientasaresultoforinconnectionwithanyinformationprovided,oranycourseofactiondetermined,byitoranythirdparty,whetherornotbasedonanyinformationprovided.TheinclusionofalinktoanexternalwebsitebyS&PGlobalshouldnotbeunderstoodtobeanendorsementofthatwebsiteorthesite'sowners(ortheirproducts/services).S&PGlobalisnotresponsibleforeitherthecontentoroutputofexternalwebsites.Copyright©2023,S&PGlobal®.AllrightsreservedandallintellectualpropertyrightsareretainedbyS&PGlobal.19PARTIIABRAZILIANENERGYLANDSCAPE(MatureMarkets)UpstreamCurrentlyWorld’s8thlargestproducerMboe/d•Trulyopensince1997;•Regulatedbyindependentagency(ANP)•“NewMarkets”•Onshore•MatureShallowWater95.33%4.67%OffshoreOilProductioninBrazilOnshoreOilProductioninBrazil64%36%PetrobrasOthersPre-saltPost-saltOnshoreSource:IBPNaturalGasOpenMarketLegallyeversince1997“Truly”overthelast5yearsInprogressBacklogofUpcomingRegulationImport•LNGTerminals/LNG-To-PowerProjects•CurrentlynotconnectedtothegridProduction•Pre-saltisanassociatedgasplay•Infrastructureissue•NewOffshoreplayersSource:EPETSOsLDCsTradersIntegratedCompaniesRefineriesPetrobras1(notincludedinTCC)Petrobras2(includedinTCC)PrivateMarketFacilityCapacityFacilityCapacityFacilityCapacityRPCC40RNEST230RLAM333RECAP53REGAP150REMAN45REDUC239REPAR207SIX-RPBC178REFAP201REPLAN415LUBNOR8REVAP252Total1.177(50%)Total796(35%)Total378(15%)millionbarrelsperday•De-factomonopolyofPetrobras•Continuationofplanneddivestments?SettlementAgreementwithCADE?•FuelpricingpoliticalconundrumDownstream27.90%19.98%18.87%3.06%2.35%27.84%VibraRaizenIpirangaSabbáAlesatOthersTrulyopensince1997•From“TraditionalFuelCompanies”tointegratedEnergygroups•Distribution:sizableconcentrationontop-3•Sugarcanebasedethanol•80%ofcarsrunonethanol•27%ethanolmixintogasoline•Biodiesel•12%biodieselmixintodiesel•PetrobrasisinvestingheavilyinnewgenerationbiodieselSource:2023ANPAnnualStatisticReportFUEL–MarketShare29%22%40%9%Naturgy(RJ)Comgás(SP)Commit(Gaspetro)Others•Constitutionalsplit(FederalxState):“gaspipedlocalservices”•LDCs:highlyconcentratedmarket•Mandatorythermalpowerplantsmayboostpipelinemarket•Small-scaleLNGandsimilarinitiativesto“bringthegastothecountry”Source:FGVCERIReport-NaturalGasDistribution-2019MarketSharebasedintheaveragedailyvolumecommercializedNATURALGAS–MarketSharePowerandenergymatrix–WorldVs.Brazil29%27%24%10%5%3%2%OilandderivativesMineralCoalEnergyMatrix(BrazilVs.World)34%16%13%11%9%9%6%1%1%OilandderivativesSugarcanederivativesNaturalGas2020WorldEnergySources2021BrazilEnergySources34%23%17%10%6%3%2%2%1%1%1%MineralcoalNaturalGasHydroNuclearWindPowerMatrix(BrazilVs.World)57%13%11%8%4%3%2%2%HydroNaturalGasWindBiomass2020WorldPowerSources2021BrazilPowerSourcesPowerandenergymatrix52%85%48%15%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%BrazilWorldNon-RenewableRenewableEnergyMatrix(BrazilVs.World)PowerMatrix(BrazilVs.World)17%71%83%29%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%BrazilWorldNon-RenewableRenewable•SubsidiesforSolarandWindfadingaway•OngoingMarketliberalizationreforms•Expectedchangestoconformmarketrealityxlaw/regulationPARTIIBBRAZILIANENERGYLANDSCAPE(NewTechnologies)Newtechnologies1-2CCSNolegalframeworkordefinitionofFederalregulator/authorityFewpilotprojectsHYDROGENNolegalframeworkordefinitionofFederalregulator/authorityManyearly-stagegreenfieldprojects(includinggreenhydrogenhubtoexportammoniatoGermany)OFFSHOREWINDRegulationhasbeendevelopingEarly-stageprojectsongoing(e.g.JVPetrobrasandEquinor)StillchallengingfromaneconomicfeasibilityperspectiveNewtechnologies2-22ndGENERATIONBIOFUELSExistingregulationneedstobeupdated/adjustedIndustrythatrequireslessofastructuralchange,moredependentonthesuccessofthetechnologyPetrobrasplayin‘DieselR’BIOGAS/BIOMETHANEExistingregulationandincentivesintheregulatedpowerauctionsManyongoingprojectsDrivingForces•Regulatoryincentives/subsidies❑Mandatory1%R&Dspending❑NewpackageexpectedforMay/Jun23•Offtakers•BrazilasatooltoachieveglobaltargetKeyTakeaways12345Brazilisajurisdictionthatwelcomesforeigninvestmentand(onthelongrun)canprovidestablereturns–tobeadjustedbyriskpremiumNewpoliticallandscapecreatesopportunitiesandchallengesfordifferentpartsofthevaluechainNewregulationandincentivesexpectedtochangetheEnergyTransitionlandscapeintheshortterm–politicalstanceofcurrentAdministrationAtthesametime,friendlyjurisdictiontohydrocarbonsAvailabilityofresourcesallowforscalingupFernandoXavierfdx@machadomeyer.com.brDanielSzyfmandrj@machadomeyer.com.brThankyou!Obrigado!CamilaGalvãocga@machadomeyer.com.brBrazilE&P-NewMarketandNewFrontiersApril17,2023PetrobrasDivestmentPlan2017BacalhaufieldsoldtoEquinor2018Iara/LapafieldsoldtoTotalRoncadorfieldsoldtoEquinorPargoclustersoldtoPerencoMAINDEALSTartarugafieldsoldtoPetronasRiachodaForquilhaclustersoldtoPetroReconcavo2019BaunasoldtoKaroonPampo/EnchovaclustersoldtoTrident20202021RioVenturaandRecôncavoclusterssoldto3RCarmopolisclustersoldtoGrupoCobraMirangaclustersoldtoPetroRecôncavoRefineryandoilsandsfieldsoldtoF&MResourcesNorteCapixabaclustersoldtoSeacrestAlagoasclustersoldtoOrigem2022AlbacoraLestefieldsoldtoPetroRioPotiguarclustersoldto3RMacauclustersoldto3RPeroáandPapa-terrafieldssoldto3RFradefieldsoldtoPetroRioFazendaBelémclustersoldto3RFazendaBelémclustersoldto3RRemansoclustersoldtoPetroRecôncavoTucanoSulclustersoldtoEagle(Origem)MarombafieldsoldtoBWGolfinhoclustersoldtoBWAzulãofieldsoldtoEnevaOngoingnegotiationsfor6otherE&PassetsLagoaPardaclustersoldtoImetameCricaréclustersoldtoSeacrestThesaleofhundredsofmatureproducingfieldsandassociatedinfrastructurecreatedanewmarketforindependentsinBrazilNewMarketforIndependents-Morethan10newoperators-IOCsconsolidatingpresenceoffshoreBrazilMostofthesecompaniesbecamepublicandraisedbillionsofUSDtofundacquisitionsandoperationsNextPhase•ThecomplexityoftheE&PclusterssoldbyPetrobrasiscreatingopportunitiesinanarrayofsectors,includingserviceandlogisticsproviders,E&Pcompanies,refiningandprocessing,trading,andpetrochemicals.35AlagoasclusterALAGOASCLUSTERTheassetrecentlyacquiredbyOrigemincludes,inadditiontotheproducinganddrainageinfrastructure,agasprocessingplant,150milesofpipelines,undergroundstoragefacilitiesandtreatmentstations.Othercasestowatchclose:•CarmopolisCluster–CarmoEnergy(Cobra)•PotiguarCluster–3R(pendingclosing)OrigemreceivedapprovalfornaturalgasundergroundstorageintheAlagoasclusterAlotofworkaheadThefieldssoldbyPetrobrasreceivednoinvestmentsforalmost10years.Mostwellsandpumpswereinoperative.Thenewoperatorsareintensivelyinvestinginquicklyrecoveringproduction.1.RecoverEnhancedrecoverytechnologieswillgreatlyexpandthefields’lifespan.Developmentofupsidesandunconventionalresourcesarealsoontheplan.Gasundergroundstorageservicesisalsoontheradar.Expandedexplorationisexpected,bothonunderdevelopedareasinmaturebasins,butalsoinnewfrontierbasins.2.Improve3.ExpandPetroRecôncavoincreasedtheRdFclusterproduction40%in12months.Origemand3Racquiredseveralexploratoryblocksaroundtheirfields1,009onshoreandoffshoreblocksavailable.867additionalblockstobeincluded.•PermanentOffer:Allareasarenowofferedthroughanopenacreageprocedure.•Companiesareallowedtoproposeinclusionofnewareasofinterest.•Newfrontierswithgame-changingpotential:•EquatorialMargin•OnshorebasinswithconfirmedpotentialforunconventionalproductionNewE&PFrontiersFernandoXavierfdx@machadomeyer.com.br+55213572-3057DanielSzyfmandrj@machadomeyer.com.br+55213572-3110+55113150-7024Thankyou!Obrigado!CamilaGalvãocga@machadomeyer.com.br+55113150-7681Somesectorsofindustryaretaxedbylowerratesapplicableonitsownrevenuesinsteadofhigherratesonpayroll.Taxexemptions,taxbenefitsordifferent/specialregimesoftaxationthatarenotcontemplatedbythechart.GENERALOVERVIEWBraziliantaxsystemTaxRateRecoverabilityFederalTaxesTaxationoncorporateincome(WHT)Realprofit:34%onprofitNotApplicablePresumedprofit:10.88%ongrossservicerevenuesand3.08%ongrosssalesrevenuesNotApplicableTaxationonrevenue(PIS/COFINS)Non-cumulativeregime:9.25%RecoverableCumulativeregime:3.65%NotRecoverableImportDuty(II)VariableRatesaccordingtothetaxcode(NCM)ofthegoodNotrecoverableTaxonManufacturedProducts(IPI–FederalVAT)VariableRatesaccordingtothetaxcode(NCM)ofthegoodRecoverableTaxesonpayroll20%to22.5%or1%to4.5%onrevenueNotApplicableStateTaxStateVAT(ICMS)VariableRates-generalaveragerateof18%(internaltransactions/import)and7%or12%(interstatetransactions)RecoverableMunicipalTaxTaxonServices(ISS)2%to5%Notrecoverable

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