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2023

Boom and Bust Coal

Global Energy Monitor, CREA, E3G, Reclaim Finance, Sierra Club, SFOC,

Kiko Network, CAN Europe, Bangladesh Groups, ACJCE, Chile Sustentable

TRACKING THE GLOBAL COAL PLANT PIPELINE

BOOM AND BUST COAL 2023

REPORT | APRIL 2023 | 2

GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR, CREA, E3G, RECLAIM FINANCE, SIERRA CLUB, SFOC,

KIKONETWORK, CAN EUROPE, BANGLADESH GROUPS, ACJCE, CHILE SUSTENTABLE

ABOUT THE COVER

The cover photo shows activists staring down a bucket wheel excavator at

the Garzweiler open-pit coal mine in Lützerath, Germany, where the mine’s

planned expansion would raze nearby villages and evict local residents.

Photo © Bernd Lauter / Greenpeace, January 2023.

GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) develops and

shares information on energy projects in

support of the worldwide movement for clean

energy. By studying the evolving international energy landscape, and cre-

ating databases, reports, and interactive tools that enhance understanding,

GEM seeks to build an open guide to the world’s energy system. For more

information, visit www.globalenergymonitor.org.

CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON

ENERGYAND CLEAN AIR

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean

Air (CREA) is an independent research organization focused on revealing the

trends, causes, and health impacts, as well as the solutions to air pollution.

For more information, visit www.energyandcleanair.org.

E3G

E3G is an independent climate change think tank with

a global outlook. They work on the frontier of the

climate landscape, tackling the barriers and advancing

the solutions to a safe climate. Their goal is to translate climate politics, eco-

nomics and policies into action. For more information, visit www.e3g.org.

RECLAIM FINANCE

Reclaim Finance is an NGO affiliated with Friends of

the Earth France. Reclaim Finance exposes the climate

impacts of financial players, denounces the most harmful practices and puts

its expertise at the service of public authorities and financial stakeholders

who desire to bend existing practices to ecological imperatives. For more

information, visit reclaimfinance.org.

SIERRA CLUB

The Sierra Club is America’s largest and most influential grass-

roots environmental organization, with millions of members

and supporters. In addition to protecting every person’s right to

get outdoors and access the healing power of nature, the Sierra

Club works to promote clean energy, safeguard the health of

our communities, protect wildlife, and preserve our remaining wild places

through grassroots activism, public education, lobbying, and legal action.

For more information, visit www.sierraclub.org.

SOLUTIONS FOR OUR CLIMATE

Solutions for Our Climate (SFOC) is a nonprofit

organization established in 2016 to address the

socialand environmental impacts of climate change. SFOC conducts

research on solutions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and expanding

renewables, and coordinates campaigns with both domestic and inter-

national organizations to address the climate crisis. For more information,

visit www.forourclimate.org.

KIKO NETWORK

Kiko Network is a national Japanese environ-

mental NGO that tackles climate change by

working with local communities, conducting research, submitting proposals

or negotiating at the national and international level, and maintaining a

database of coal-fired power generation units in Japan. For more informa-

tion, visit www.kikonet.org/?cat=54.

CAN EUROPE

Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe is Europe’s leading

NGO coalition fighting dangerous climate change. With

over 170 member organisations active in 38 European

countries, representing over 1,500 NGOs and more than

47 million citizens, CAN Europe promotes sustainable

climate, energy and development policies throughout Europe. For more

information, visit caneurope.org. Note: CAN Europe only contributed to

information on Türkiye.

BANGLADESH GROUPS (BAPA & WKB)

Bangladesh Poribesh Andolon (BAPA) was launched

to create a nationwide, united, and strong civic

movement to protect Bangladesh’s environment. For

more information, visit Bapa.org.bd. Waterkeepers

Bangladesh (WKB) works to protect the water and

water bodies of Bangladesh including its for-

ests resources through enforcement, fieldwork,

and community action. For more information,

visitwaterkeepersbangladesh.org.

ALLIANCE FOR CLIMATE JUSTICE

AND CLEAN ENERGY (ACJCE)

The Alliance for Climate Justice and Clean

Energy (ACJCE) is a civil society network endeavoring for a transition in

Pakistan’s energy sector. ACJCE includes six organisations, namely Policy

Research Institute For Equitable Development (PRIED), Pakistan Fisherfolk

Forum (PFF), Alternative Law Collective (ALC), Indus Consortium (IC), The

Knowledge Forum (TKF), and Alternate Development Services (ADS). For

more information, visit acjce.com.

CHILE SUSTENTABLE

Created in 1997, Fundación Chile Suste-

ntable is an initiative of environmental

organizations, academics, and citizens dedicated to the analysis and design

of new public policies on water, energy, and biodiversity in support of Chile’s

transition to a green, democratic, and socially equitable society capable

of restoring ecosystems and facing the climate crisis. Through citizen

proposals and campaigns, it has influenced the achievement of new laws for

environmental protection, water security, and energy transition in Chile. For

more information, visit www.chilesustentable.net.

ABOUT THE GLOBAL COAL PLANT TRACKER

The Global Coal Plant Tracker is an online database that identifies and maps

every known coal-fired generating unit and every new unit proposed since

January 1, 2010 (30 MW and larger). Developed by Global Energy Monitor,

the tracker uses footnoted wiki pages to document each plant and is updated

biannually. For further details, see Tracker Methodology.

PRODUCTION

Design by Charlene Will and Mimi Heft. Additional design and page layout

by David Van Ness.

PERMISSIONS/COPYRIGHT

mons Attribution 4.0 International License.

FURTHER RESOURCES

For additional data on proposed and existing coal plants, see Summary Data

on the GEM website, which provides over 20 tables providing results from

the Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT), broken down by province, nation, and

region. For links to reports based on GCPT data, see Reports & Briefings on

the GEM website. To obtain primary data from the GCPT, see Download Data

on the GEM website.

Global

Energy

Monitor

REPORT | APRIL 2023 | 3

GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR, CREA, E3G, RECLAIM FINANCE, SIERRA CLUB, SFOC,

KIKONETWORK, CAN EUROPE, BANGLADESH GROUPS, ACJCE, CHILE SUSTENTABLE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The upheaval in the global energy sector in 2022 created renewed speculation

of a “coal comeback,” but the end of coal nevertheless remains in sight. Today,

nearly one-third of operating global coal capacity (580 gigawatts (GW)) has a

phase out date, and much of the remaining capacity (1,400 GW) is under the

purview of carbon neutrality targets. Just 5% of the global coal fleet stands

beyond the scope of a national commitment—a reality nearly unthinkable a

decade ago.

But the pace of the global coal phase out is not yet compatible with the goals of

the Paris climate agreement. Last month, the UN Secretary-General António

Guterres outlined an “Acceleration Agenda,” renewing calls for an immedi-

ate end to new coal, and for a phase out of existing coal by 2030 in developed

countries and 2040 in the rest of the world. Under such a scenario, only 70%

ofOECD operating coal capacity is currently on pace (330 GW), and outside the

OECD, only 6% of coal capacity has a known closure date before 2040 (93 GW).

In terms of new coal, while coal under development—or coal in pre-construc-

tion and construction—has collapsed by two thirds since the Paris agreement,

nearly 350 GW of new capacity is still proposed across 33 countries, and an

additional 192 GW of capacityis under construction. China’s pre-construction

and construction capacity surpassed the rest of the world’s in 2021, and the gap

widened in 2022. New coal capacity under development in China increased by

38% (266 GW to 366 GW), while the capacity in the rest of the world decreased

by 20% (214 GW to 172 GW). China now accounts for two thirds (68%) of global

capacity under development, up from 55% a year ago.

Urgent action is necessary to ensure an end to coal and a fighting chance at

a livable climate. The IPCC has stated the necessity for “rapid and deep, and

Boom and Bust Coal 2023

TRACKING THE GLOBAL COAL PLANT PIPELINE

Global Energy Monitor, CREA, E3G, Reclaim Finance, Sierra Club, SFOC,

Kiko Network, CAN Europe, Bangladesh Groups, ACJCE, Chile Sustentable

Global

Energy

Monitor

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2023BoomandBustCoalGlobalEnergyMonitor,CREA,E3G,ReclaimFinance,SierraClub,SFOC,KikoNetwork,CANEurope,BangladeshGroups,ACJCE,ChileSustentableTRACKINGTHEGLOBALCOALPLANTPIPELINEBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL20232GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEABOUTTHECOVERThecoverphotoshowsactivistsstaringdownabucketwheelexcavatorattheGarzweileropen-pitcoalmineinLützerath,Germany,wherethemine’splannedexpansionwouldrazenearbyvillagesandevictlocalresidents.Photo©BerndLauter/Greenpeace,January2023.GLOBALENERGYMONITORGlobalEnergyMonitor(GEM)developsandsharesinformationonenergyprojectsinsupportoftheworldwidemovementforcleanenergy.Bystudyingtheevolvinginternationalenergylandscape,andcre-atingdatabases,reports,andinteractivetoolsthatenhanceunderstanding,GEMseekstobuildanopenguidetotheworld’senergysystem.Formoreinformation,visitwww.globalenergymonitor.org.CENTREFORRESEARCHONENERGYANDCLEANAIRTheCentreforResearchonEnergyandCleanAir(CREA)isanindependentresearchorganizationfocusedonrevealingthetrends,causes,andhealthimpacts,aswellasthesolutionstoairpollution.Formoreinformation,visitwww.energyandcleanair.org.E3GE3Gisanindependentclimatechangethinktankwithaglobaloutlook.Theyworkonthefrontieroftheclimatelandscape,tacklingthebarriersandadvancingthesolutionstoasafeclimate.Theirgoalistotranslateclimatepolitics,eco-nomicsandpoliciesintoaction.Formoreinformation,visitwww.e3g.org.RECLAIMFINANCEReclaimFinanceisanNGOaffiliatedwithFriendsoftheEarthFrance.ReclaimFinanceexposestheclimateimpactsoffinancialplayers,denouncesthemostharmfulpracticesandputsitsexpertiseattheserviceofpublicauthoritiesandfinancialstakeholderswhodesiretobendexistingpracticestoecologicalimperatives.Formoreinformation,visitreclaimfinance.org.SIERRACLUBTheSierraClubisAmerica’slargestandmostinfluentialgrass-rootsenvironmentalorganization,withmillionsofmembersandsupporters.Inadditiontoprotectingeveryperson’srighttogetoutdoorsandaccessthehealingpowerofnature,theSierraClubworkstopromotecleanenergy,safeguardthehealthofourcommunities,protectwildlife,andpreserveourremainingwildplacesthroughgrassrootsactivism,publiceducation,lobbying,andlegalaction.Formoreinformation,visitwww.sierraclub.org.SOLUTIONSFOROURCLIMATESolutionsforOurClimate(SFOC)isanonprofitorganizationestablishedin2016toaddressthesocialandenvironmentalimpactsofclimatechange.SFOCconductsresearchonsolutionsforreducinggreenhousegasemissionsandexpandingrenewables,andcoordinatescampaignswithbothdomesticandinternationalorganizationstoaddresstheclimatecrisis.Formoreinformation,visitwww.forourclimate.org.KIKONETWORKKikoNetworkisanationalJapaneseenviron-mentalNGOthattacklesclimatechangebyworkingwithlocalcommunities,conductingresearch,submittingproposalsornegotiatingatthenationalandinternationallevel,andmaintainingadatabaseofcoal-firedpowergenerationunitsinJapan.Formoreinforma-tion,visitwww.kikonet.org/?cat=54.CANEUROPEClimateActionNetwork(CAN)EuropeisEurope’sleadingNGOcoalitionfightingdangerousclimatechange.Withover170memberorganisationsactivein38Europeancountries,representingover1,500NGOsandmorethan47millioncitizens,CANEuropepromotessustainableclimate,energyanddevelopmentpoliciesthroughoutEurope.Formoreinformation,visitcaneurope.org.Note:CANEuropeonlycontributedtoinformationonTürkiye.BANGLADESHGROUPS(BAPA&WKB)BangladeshPoribeshAndolon(BAPA)waslaunchedtocreateanationwide,united,andstrongcivicmovementtoprotectBangladesh’senvironment.Formoreinformation,visitBapa.org.bd.WaterkeepersBangladesh(WKB)workstoprotectthewaterandwaterbodiesofBangladeshincludingitsfor-estsresourcesthroughenforcement,fieldwork,andcommunityaction.Formoreinformation,visitwaterkeepersbangladesh.org.ALLIANCEFORCLIMATEJUSTICEANDCLEANENERGY(ACJCE)TheAllianceforClimateJusticeandCleanEnergy(ACJCE)isacivilsocietynetworkendeavoringforatransitioninPakistan’senergysector.ACJCEincludessixorganisations,namelyPolicyResearchInstituteForEquitableDevelopment(PRIED),PakistanFisherfolkForum(PFF),AlternativeLawCollective(ALC),IndusConsortium(IC),TheKnowledgeForum(TKF),andAlternateDevelopmentServices(ADS).Formoreinformation,visitacjce.com.CHILESUSTENTABLECreatedin1997,FundaciónChileSuste-ntableisaninitiativeofenvironmentalorganizations,academics,andcitizensdedicatedtotheanalysisanddesignofnewpublicpoliciesonwater,energy,andbiodiversityinsupportofChile’stransitiontoagreen,democratic,andsociallyequitablesocietycapableofrestoringecosystemsandfacingtheclimatecrisis.Throughcitizenproposalsandcampaigns,ithasinfluencedtheachievementofnewlawsforenvironmentalprotection,watersecurity,andenergytransitioninChile.Formoreinformation,visitwww.chilesustentable.net.ABOUTTHEGLOBALCOALPLANTTRACKERTheGlobalCoalPlantTrackerisanonlinedatabasethatidentifiesandmapseveryknowncoal-firedgeneratingunitandeverynewunitproposedsinceJanuary1,2010(30MWandlarger).DevelopedbyGlobalEnergyMonitor,thetrackerusesfootnotedwikipagestodocumenteachplantandisupdatedbiannually.Forfurtherdetails,seeTrackerMethodology.PRODUCTIONDesignbyCharleneWillandMimiHeft.AdditionaldesignandpagelayoutbyDavidVanNess.PERMISSIONS/COPYRIGHTCopyright©GlobalEnergyMonitoretal.DistributedunderaCreativeCom-monsAttribution4.0InternationalLicense.FURTHERRESOURCESForadditionaldataonproposedandexistingcoalplants,seeSummaryDataontheGEMwebsite,whichprovidesover20tablesprovidingresultsfromtheGlobalCoalPlantTracker(GCPT),brokendownbyprovince,nation,andregion.ForlinkstoreportsbasedonGCPTdata,seeReports&BriefingsontheGEMwebsite.ToobtainprimarydatafromtheGCPT,seeDownloadDataontheGEMwebsite.GlobalEnergyMonitorREPORTAPRIL20233GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEEXECUTIVESUMMARYTheupheavalintheglobalenergysectorin2022createdrenewedspeculationofa“coalcomeback,”buttheendofcoalneverthelessremainsinsight.Today,nearlyone-thirdofoperatingglobalcoalcapacity(580gigawatts(GW))hasaphaseoutdate,andmuchoftheremainingcapacity(1,400GW)isunderthepurviewofcarbonneutralitytargets.Just5%oftheglobalcoalfleetstandsbeyondthescopeofanationalcommitment—arealitynearlyunthinkableadecadeago.ButthepaceoftheglobalcoalphaseoutisnotyetcompatiblewiththegoalsoftheParisclimateagreement.Lastmonth,theUNSecretary-GeneralAntónioGuterresoutlinedan“AccelerationAgenda,”renewingcallsforanimmedi-ateendtonewcoal,andforaphaseoutofexistingcoalby2030indevelopedcountriesand2040intherestoftheworld.Undersuchascenario,only70%ofOECDoperatingcoalcapacityiscurrentlyonpace(330GW),andoutsidetheOECD,only6%ofcoalcapacityhasaknownclosuredatebefore2040(93GW).Intermsofnewcoal,whilecoalunderdevelopment—orcoalinpre-construc-tionandconstruction—hascollapsedbytwothirdssincetheParisagreement,nearly350GWofnewcapacityisstillproposedacross33countries,andanadditional192GWofcapacityisunderconstruction.China’spre-constructionandconstructioncapacitysurpassedtherestoftheworld’sin2021,andthegapwidenedin2022.NewcoalcapacityunderdevelopmentinChinaincreasedby38%(266GWto366GW),whilethecapacityintherestoftheworlddecreasedby20%(214GWto172GW).Chinanowaccountsfortwothirds(68%)ofglobalcapacityunderdevelopment,upfrom55%ayearago.Urgentactionisnecessarytoensureanendtocoalandafightingchanceatalivableclimate.TheIPCChasstatedthenecessityfor“rapidanddeep,andBoomandBustCoal2023TRACKINGTHEGLOBALCOALPLANTPIPELINEGlobalEnergyMonitor,CREA,E3G,ReclaimFinance,SierraClub,SFOC,KikoNetwork,CANEurope,BangladeshGroups,ACJCE,ChileSustentableGlobalEnergyMonitorBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL20234GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEinmostcasesimmediategreenhousegasemissionreductions.”Toaccom-plishthis,countriesneedtotranslateannouncementsintoplant-by-plantretirementplansaswellasrampupphaseoutcommitments.Detailsonhowcurrentandfuturepoliciesandfundswillbeimplementedtoimpactcoalretirementdatesandensureaswiftandequitableendtonewcoalwillbeessential.Theinternationally-agreedcoalpowerphasedownisaworkinprogress.Butwhateverthecase,2022providedanobjectlessonintheendemicweaknessesofthecoalsector.Despitesomeseeminglyfavorableconditions—oilandgasshortages,outagesatnuclearplants,andsevereweathereventsthatcurbedhydropower—the“coalcomeback”failedtomate-rializeinmuchoftheworldevenifcoalisnotyetdead.KeyDevelopmentsof2022■Globally,theoperatingcoalfleetgrewby19.5GWin2022.Morethanhalf(59%)ofthe45.5GWofnewlycommissionedcapacitywasinChina.Out-sideChina,theglobalcoalfleetcontinuedtoshrink,althoughataslowerratethaninpreviousyears.■AftertheEuropeanUnionretiredarecordhighof14.6GWofcoalcapac-ityin2021,thegascrisisandRussia’sinvasionofUkrainepromptedaslowdownincoalretirements,withonly2.2GWretiredinthelastyear.Temporaryrestartsandextensionsaregenerallyexpectedtowinddowninthenextfewyears,andwhatappearedtobeaspikeincoalcapacityaddedonly1%tototalEUcoalgenerationin2022.■TheU.S.ledcoalretirementswith13.5GWretiredin2022.Tomeetnationalenergyandclimategoals,continuedmomentumawayfromcoalneedstoaccelerate.■TheGroupofSevenmajorindustrialcountries(G7)accountsfor15%(323GW)oftheworld’soperatingcoalcapacityandnoneofthepre-con-structioncoalcapacityasidefromoneproposalinJapan.In2022,thegrouppledgedtophaseoutunabatedcoaland“predominantly”decarbon-izetheirelectricitysectorsby2035;eachcountryshouldnowimplementa2030coalphaseouttoensuretheG7delivers.TheGroupofTwenty(G20)ishometo93%oftheworld’soperatingcoalcapacity(1,926GW)and88%(305GW)ofthepre-constructioncoalcapacity.■Inthepasttwoyears,theinternationalcommunityhascommittedUS$45.2billionforthecoal-to-cleantransition,withthebiggestfinancialpackagesgoingtoSouthAfrica,Indonesia,andVietnam.■Althoughinternationalpubliccoalfinancingisessentiallydryasafundingtap,supportforcoalcanarrivethroughavarietyoffinancialpipes.Fortheeraofcoaltocometoanend,allthesepipesmustbeshutoff.BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL20235GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLE■In2022,99privatefinancialinstitutionsadoptedneworupdatedcoalpolicies.However,themajorityofpoliciesareinsufficienttoalignbanks,insurers,andinvestorswithclimatescience.Only12oftheseneworupdatedpoliciesarestrongenoughtohaltsupportforthedevelopersofnewcoalminesandpowerplants,orsetdeadlinestoendallcoalpow-er-relatedfinanceinthetimeframerequired.■AllworldregionsoutsideCentralAsiaandChinasawadeclineorpla-teauinthescaleofnewcoalunderconsiderationin2022.TherearenonewcoalprojectsunderconsiderationintheEuropeanUnionandNorthAmerica.ThescaleofproposednewcoalpowercapacityoutsideChinaisdownby84%since2015,withreductionsof90%inOECD/EUand83%innon-OECDcountries.■Indiasentmixedsignalsregardingitsfuturecoaluse.Thecountryhas28.5GWofcoalpowercapacityplanned,up2.6GWin2022,and32GWofcoalpowercapacityunderconstruction.■Totalcoalpowercapacityunderdevelopment(includingannounced,pre-permit,permitted,andconstructionstages)hasbeenaround500GWsince2019,asignificantcollapsefromthe1,576GWunderdevelopmentgloballyin2014.Thefigurehitarecordlowof479.4GWin2021,andinchedbackupto537.1GWin2022,a12%one-yearincreaseledbyChina.■Forthefirsttimesincedatacollectionbegan,totalpre-constructioncoalcapacityhasfallenbelow100GWintheworldoutsideChina(96.7GW).Only20newcoalplantproposalswereinitiatedorrestoredintheentireworldoutsideChinain2022.AhandfulofotherprojectspreviouslyunderconstructionthathadbeenpresumedshelvedorabandonedalsoappearedbackonthetableinIndia.■ThedevelopmentofoverseascoalplantsbackedbyChinahasslowed.19%(21GW)oftheapproximately108GWofChina-backedoverseascoalcapacityinpre-constructionandconstructionasofChina’sSeptember2021pledgehasbeencancelledorispresumedcancelled,butnearly40%movedforward.■Phasingoutoperatingcoalpowerby2040wouldrequireanaverageof117GWofretirementsperyear,orfourandahalftimesthecapacityretiredin2022.Anaverageof60GWmustcomeofflineinOECDcountrieseachyeartomeettheir2030coalphaseoutdeadline,andfornon-OECDcountries,91GWeachyearfortheir2040deadline.Accountingforcoalplantsunderconstructionandinconsideration(537.1GW)wouldrequireevensteepercuts.BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL20236GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLECONTENTSExecutiveSummary..............................3KeyDevelopmentsof2022........................4GlobalDataSummary............................7DrivingForward:WorldOutsideChinaClosesinon“NoNewCoal”..10ParisClimateGoalsBecomingMoreElusive...............13Plantlevelprogress...........................14PrivateFinanceCoalPolicyTrendsin2022................16ChangestoChina’sOverseasCoalProjects................17China:MassiveSurgeinNewPlantPermits................18Whatisdrivingnewcoalpowerprojects?..............19WhataretheimplicationsforCO2emissions?............20Aretherealternatives?.........................20India’sMixedSignals:UncertainFuturefortheEndofCoal......21TheU.S.LeadstheWayinCoalRetirements,asMomentumAwayFromCoalNeedstoContinueIncreasing..............25CoalisNotMakingaComeback:LastResortMeasuresintheEuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom...............27Türkiye....................................30Ukraine....................................31Indonesia...................................31Pakistan....................................32Bangladesh..................................33Vietnam....................................34Philippines..................................35SouthKorea.................................35Japan.....................................36Australia...................................37NorthernAfricaandtheMiddleEast...................37Sub-SaharanAfrica.............................38LatinAmerica................................39Appendix...................................41BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL20237GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEGLOBALDATASUMMARY1.Thisonlyincludescapacityretiredatunits30MWandabove.BasedonprovincialDevelopmentandReformCommissionandNDRCdataavailableasofMarch2023,atleast4.1GWofcoalcapacityretiredatunits4.5MWandabovein2022.China’ssteadynewcoalplantadditions(26.8GW)offsetcoalplantretirementsintherestoftheworld(23.9GW)in2022andresultedinanuptickinoverallglobalcapacity(Figure1).Intotal,45.5GWofglobalcoalpowercapacitywascommissionedin2022while26GWwasretired,causinganetincreaseintheglobalcoalfleetof19.5GW(blackline).In2021,thenetincreasewas12.6GW,resultingfromanequalnumberofnewcapacityadditionsasin2022(45.6GW)butagreaternumberofglobalretirements(33GW).China’snewcoalplantadditionsmadeup59%ofglobaladditionsin2022(Figure1).Thecountryretiredlessthan3GWofcoalpowercapacityin2022,oneofitslowestannualretirementsinmorethanadecade.1Somecountrieshavebeenscalingbacktheircoalplansforyears,leadingglobalcoalpowercapacityoutsideChinatoremainstableordeclineeveryyearsince2018(dottedline).However,thistrendslowedin2022fromtherateofretirements.Afterarecordhighof14.6GWretiredin2021,theEuropeanUnion(EU)droppedtoanalmostrecordlowof2.2GWretiredin2022—asexplainedintheEUandUnitedKingdom(UK)sectionbelow—representingonly8%oftheglobalcapacityretiredthatyear.Meanwhile,theU.S.closedsomeofthegapwith13.5GWretiredin2022.Intotal,17countriesretiredcoalcapacityin2022,thesamenumberasin2021.OutsideoftheU.S.andChina,onlyfourcountriesretiredorconvertedmoreFigure1:Newlyoperatingandretiredcoalcapacityandthenetchange,2000–2022202220202018201620142012201020082006200420022000010050-50Gigawatts↑Commissioning↓RetirementsChinaIndiaOtherU.S.EU27ChinaOtherNetchangeNetchangew/oChinaBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL20238GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEthan1GWofcoalcapacityduringtheyear:Ukraine(1.3GW),theUnitedArabEmirates(1.2GW),SouthAfrica(1.2GW),andtheUnitedKingdom(1.1GW).In2022,PeruandtheUnitedArabEmiratesretiredorconvertedtheirlastoperatingcoalplants,joiningfourothercountriesthathavephasedoutcoal(Austria,Belgium,Sweden,andPortugal).Intotal,14countriescommissionednewcoalpowerin2022.Morethanhalf(59%)ofthenewlycom-missionedcapacitywasinChina(25.2GW),witharemaining16%inSouthAsia(India,Pakistan,andBangladesh),11%inSoutheastAsia(Vietnam,Philippines,Indonesia,andCambodia),9%inEastAsia(JapanandSouthKorea),and5%inotherregions.TheannualcapacityadditionsformanyindividualChineseprovincestoppedthecapacityadditionsofentirecountries.InnerMongolia(6GW)surpassedIndia(3.5GW)despiteIndiabeingthecountrywiththemostcoalcommissionedin2022afterChina(Figure2).Infact,InnerMongolianearlyhadmorenewcapacitythanthenexttwocountriesafterChinacombined(IndiaandJapan).China’sdominanceisexpectedtocontinueinto2023andbeyondwhenlook-ingatthecoalpowercapacitybeingdeveloped.Figure2:Coalcapacitybeginningoperationin2022bycountryoutsideofChinaandbyChineseprovinceCountryIndiaJapanPakistanVietnamTürkiyePhilippinesIndonesiaSouthKoreaBangladeshSouthAfricaCambodiaArgentinaZimbabwe0600040002000MegawattsChineseprovinceInnerMongoliaJiangxiAnhuiShanxiGuangxiShandongHubeiFujianHunanShaanxiChongqingLiaoningNingxiaXinjiangShanghaiGuangdongJiangsuHenanBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL20239GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLETotalcoalpowercapacityunderdevelopment(includ-ingannounced,pre-permit,permitted,andconstruc-tionstages)hasbeenaround500GW,plusorminus50GW,since2019,asignificantcollapsefromthe1,576GWunderdevelopmentgloballyin2014.Thefigurehitarecordlowof479.4GWin2021,andinchedbackupto537.1GWin2022,a12%one-yearincrease.Chinaisresponsibleforthisincrease.In2021,thecapacityunderdevelopmentinChinastartedexceed-ingthecapacityunderdevelopmentintherestoftheworldforthefirsttimeinyears(Figure3).In2022,thisgapwidened,withthecapacityinChinaincreasingby38%(265.6GWto365.5GW),andthecapacityintherestoftheworlddecreasingby20%(213.8GWto171.5GW).China’sshareofcoalunderdevelopmentincreasedfrom55%in2021to68%in2022,meaningthatChinaaccountsforovertwo-thirdsofthecapacityunderdevelopmentintheworldforthefirsttime.Asnotedbelow,thesameistruewhenlookingatpre-con-structioncapacityalone,whereChinanowaccountsfor72%ofglobalpre-constructioncapacity.Figure3:Coalcapacityinconstructionandpre-constructioninChinaandtherestoftheworld,2014–20222022202120202019201820172016201520140800600400200GigawattsChinaRestoftheworldBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202310GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEDRIVINGFORWARD:WORLDOUTSIDECHINACLOSESINON“NONEWCOAL”2.Note:Figureexcludes“mothballed”and“cancelled”coalcapacity.Theperiodsincethe2015Parisclimateagreementwassignedhasseenadramaticcontractioninthescaleofnewcoalunderconsiderationglobally.Overthelastnineyears,proposedcoalcapacityhasshrunkby72%.In2022,thispositivetrendcontinuedasalmostallcountriesandregionsexperiencedeitheranongoingdecline,oraplateauinthescaleofnewcoalcapacityunderconsideration.DespiteclearsignalsthatChinawould“strictlycontrol”coal,itsrenewedcoalpowerboomin2022offsetsprogressawayfromnewcoalintherestoftheworld.Figure4:Coalcapacityandproposalsbystatus,2014–20222OperatingConstructionAnnouncedPre-permitPermittedShelvedRetiredChina202220212020201920182017201620152014010005001500GigawattsNon-OECD202220212020201920182017201620152014OECD/EU202220212020201920182017201620152014China202220212020201920182017201620152014010005001500GigawattsNon-OECD202220212020201920182017201620152014OECD/EU202220212020201920182017201620152014BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202311GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEAsofJanuary2023,346.8GWofpre-constructioncapacityremainsunderdevelopmentglobally.Thisincludes118.3GWofannouncednewprojects,117.7GWatpre-permitstatus,and110.8GWwithper-mitsinplace,distributedacross33countries.Ofthis347GW,however,Chinaaccountsfor72%(250GW)(Figure5),upfrom58%lastyear.Therestoftheworldnowhaslessthan100GWofcapacityproposed.BeyondChina,18%oftheremain-ing346.8GWofplannedcoalcapacity(Figure5)—ornearlytwo-thirds(63%)ofthenon-Chinacapacity—isinthefivecountrieswiththenext-largestcapacitiesofpre-constructioncoalprojects(India,Türkiye,Indonesia,Laos,andMongolia).Thefinal10%isthinlyspreadacross27countries,13ofwhichhaveonlyasingleproposedplantstillunderconsideration.Amongthese,fivecountries—Madagascar,Niger,Tan-zania,Ukraine,andCambodia—havecoalprojectsthatwerepreviouslyseekingfinancingfromChina,whichhascommittedtoenditsoverseascoalpowerfinanc-ing.Theseprojectsaresmall(only2.2GWintotalcapacity),providingaclearopportunityforreplace-mentwithcleanenergyalternatives.TherearenonewcoalprojectsunderconsiderationanywhereineitherNorthAmericaortheEUforthefirsttimesincedatacollectionbegan,whilenonewcoalplantshaveenteredintoconstructionacrosstheOECDandEUsince2019.Theremainingpro-posedprojectsinAustralia,Japan,andTürkiyeareallunlikelytoproceed,leavingtheOECDclosetoachiev-ingNoNewCoal.TheOECD/EUasawholeisnearlyatthemilestoneofhavingnonewcoalprojectsunderconsideration.Totalcapacityintheregionhascollapsedby90%since2015(Figure6).Thetotalpre-constructioncapacityintheOECDis11.9GW,accountingforonly3%ofglobalplannedcoalcapacity.OnlythreecountriesleftintheOECD/EUarestillconsideringnewcoalcapacity.AustraliaandJapaneachhaveonecoalprojectunderconsiderationwithsmallcapacities,leavingonlyTürkiyewithmorethanoneproposedcoalproject.Inthenon-OECDcountriesoutsideChina,thetotalplannedcoalcapacityhasdecreasedby83%sinceFigure5:Coalcapacityinpre-constructionbycountry,2022(Gigawatts)3629107777250250ChinaRestoftheworldIndiaTürkiyeIndonesiaLaosMongoliaBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202312GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLE2015(Figure6),primarilyduetoasignificantdropinSoutheastAsia.Innon-OECDcountries,Vietnamsawmostofitsremainingplannedcoalcapacityshelvedorcancelledin2022(17.7GW),resultinginitdrop-pingoutofthetopfivecountriesoutsideChinaforplannedpre-constructionprojects.Brazilisnowtheonlycountrywithpre-constructioncapacityinalloftheAmericas.Between2015and2023,18non-OECDcountrieshavescrappedtheirproposedcoalprojectsandcurrentlyhavenonewprojectsunderconsideration.Ofthese,ninecountriesformallycommittedtoNoNewCoalthroughbecomingamemberofthePoweringPastCoalAlliance(PPCA)orNoNewCoalPowerCompact(NNCPC)orsigningtheCOP26CoaltoCleanPowerTransitionStatement.South-EastAsia,whichwastraditionallyconsideredasacenterfornewcoalcapacityoutsideChina,hasexperiencedaparticularlydramaticshiftawayfromnewcoal.Totalplannedcapacityintheregionhasdecreasedby86%since2015,including17%ofthedeclineinthelastyearalone.SouthAsia(39GW)hasseenitspre-constructioncapacitycollapseby86%since2015butstillaccountsformorethanathirdofallplannednewcoaloutsideChina.ThisisprincipallyduetoIndia’slargenumberofplannedprojects.Indiasawanetincreaseof2.6GWofplannednewcoaloverthecourseof2022.However,overrecentyearsmultipleprojectsinIndiahavebeenpausedduetounfavorablebusinessconditionsandtheheightenedriskofstrandedinvestments,includingsomeprojectshaltedmid-construction.Bangladeshhasreduceditstotalpre-constructioncapacityby39%sincelastyear,butstilltechnicallyhas6.7GWunderconsideration,despiteelectricitysystemovercapac-ity.Ongoingupdatestothe2016IntegratedPowerSectorMasterPlancouldincreaseBangladesh’scleanenergyambitionsandshelvefurtherpre-constructioncoalcapacity.ThePakistansectionbelowprovidesinformationonitsannouncedpivotbacktocoalinFebruary2023.Figure6:Coalcapacityinpre-constructionbystatusintheOECD/EUandinnon-OECDcountries,excludingChina,2014–2022Non-OECD,excludingChina2022202120202019201820172016201520140500400300200100GigawattsOECD/EU202220212020201920182017201620152014Non-OECD,excludingChina2022202120202019201820172016201520140500400300200100GigawattsOECD/EU202220212020201920182017201620152014PermittedPre-permittedAnnouncedBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202313GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLECentralAsiaistheonlyregionoutsideChinathatsawitsplannedcoalcapacitygrowoverthecourseof2022.Itspre-constructioncapacitygrewsignifi-cantlyoverthefirsthalfof2022,thoughitdeclinedslightlyinthesecondhalfoftheyearasaresultofchangesinMongolia’snewcoalplans.ThisgrowthhasbeendrivenbydevelopersinMongolia,Uzbekistan,andKyrgyzstanannouncingorre-announcingpro-posedprojects.Mongolia’splannedcoalcapacityhasremainedatasimilarscaleinrecentyears,despiteexperiencingprojectturnovers.Thiswasthecasein2022,withanewproposalfora0.4GWadditiontotheUlaanbaatar-3plant.Almostinparallel,thethree-unit(0.45GW)Ulaanbaatar-5proposalwascancelled.Despitetheconsiderablerisksassociatedwithcon-structingnewcoalprojects,UzbekistanandKyrgyz-stanhaveproposedpreviouslyshelvedprojectswithin2022.Thesecountriesreturnedtothelistofcountrieswithremainingpre-constructioncapacity.TotalplannedcapacityInLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanisatitslowestsince2015,withonly1.7GWofpre-constructioncapacityremaininginBrazil.TheAfricancontinenthasapre-constructioncapacityof9.7GW,accountingforonly3%oftheglobaltotal.Thiscapacityisdistributedacrosselevencountriesandiscomprisedofmostlysmallprojects.Insixcoun-tries,thereisonlyoneprojectunderconsideration,withtheprojectsinMadagascar,Niger,andTanzaniarelyingonsomeformofChinesesupport.Formoreinformationonhowcountriesacrosstheworldareprogressing,seeE3G’sMarch2023briefings:Drivingforward:worldoutsideChinaclosesinonnonewcoalandDivergingpathways:China’snewcoalboomtakesitonadetour.E3G’sintroductiontowhatNoNewCoalmeansandNoNewCoalTrackeralsoprovidemorecontextanddata.PARISCLIMATEGOALSBECOMINGMOREELUSIVECoal-firedpowergenerationisthelargestsourceofenergy-relatedCO2emissionsglobally.ToachievetheParisclimateagreement’sgoaloflimitingglobaltemperaturegrowthbelow1.5degrees,reducingtheuseofcoalforpowergenerationisthesinglemostimportantsourceofemissionsreductionsinemis-sionspathways.Toalignwiththatgoal,modelingbytheInternationalEnergyAgencyandothersfindsOECDcountriesshouldeliminatecoalpowerby2030andtherestoftheworldby2040.In2022,■OECDcoalplantscontinuedtoretireandannounceretirements,inchingtowardsalign-mentwiththe1.5degreespathway.ThelargestretirementsandretirementannouncementsweremadeinGermany,theUnitedStates,Australia,andPoland.Romania,Slovenia,andtheCzechRepublicannouncednationalphaseoutpolicies,althoughonlyRomaniaby2030.TheOECD’spro-jectedcoalpowercapacityin2030fellby18GWasaresult.■China’sprojectedcoalpowercapacityin2030grewby128GWduetotheincreaseinnewprojectsandre-activationofpreviouslyshelvedprojects.■Intherestofthenon-OECD,projectedcoalpowercapacityin2030fellsignificantly,by29GW,duetoprojectsbeingcancelledandshelvedandfewnewprojectsbeingannounced.TheprojectedcapacityfellthemostinVietnam,Bangladesh,andIndone-sia,whileincreasinginIndia.■Lookingatproject-by-projectstatuschangesin2022withoutconsideringprojectionsandcountrylevelcommitments,theamountofplannedcoal-firedcapacityinnon-OECDcountries,excludingChina,fellby23GW,andChina’sincreasedby126GW.Globally,in2022,around25GWreceivedanannouncedclose-bydateof2030.Evenwiththefallincoalplantdevelopmentanduseinsomeregionsin2022,theworldisnotontrackforthesteepreductionsincoalpowernecessarytomeettheParisclimateagreement.Generallyspeaking,phasingoutoperatingcoalpowerby2040wouldrequireanBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202314GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEaverageof117GWofretirementsperyear,orfourandahalftimesthecapacityretiredin2022.Anaverageof60GWmustcomeofflineinOECDcountrieseachyeartomeettheir2030coalphaseoutdeadline,andfornon-OECDcountries,91GWeachyearfortheir2040deadline.Accountingforcoalplantsunderconstruc-tionandinconsideration(537.1GW)wouldrequireevensteepercuts.AsdetailedinBoom&BustCoal2022,intherun-uptoCOP26inGlasgowinNovember2021,countriesannouncedanunprecedentednumberofcoalphaseout,“nonewcoal,”“nonewcoal/fossilfinancingoverseas,”andnetzeroemissionscommitments.In2022,thegapinglobalretirementsrequiredoverthenexttwodecades—or17yearstobeexact—expanded,withChinastillplanningamajorexpansion,andothercountries,especiallyOECDcountriessuchasJapanandKorea,stillplanningtooperatetheircoalpowerfleetsfarbeyondthe2030deadlineforphaseoutindevelopedcountries.AsofJanuary2023:■580GWofcapacity—or28%ofglobalcoalcapac-ity—hasaphaseoutdate,whileanother1,400GWiscoveredbycarbonneutralitytargetsbutstopsshortofaphaseoutdecision.Only110GW,or5%oftheoperatingfleettoday,arenotcoveredbyeithertypeofcommitment,whichmayhaveseemedimpossiblejustadecadeago.■Atthesametime,thedatashowsthattheworldisfarfromheadingdecisivelyintheNetZerodirection,andnotallcoalphaseoutdecisionsarealignedwiththeParisclimateagreementgoals.AssumingGermany’saspirationalgoalofphasingoutcoal“ideally”by2030canbefirmedup,andassumingtheUnitedStates’2035CleanPowergoalwillmeanacoalphaseoutby2030,330GW,or70%ofOECDcoalcapacity,isscheduledtocloseby2030.OutsidetheOECD,only93GW,or6%ofnon-OECDcoalcapacity,hasaclosuredateby2040.AtCOP27inSharmElSheikhinNovember2022,governmentswereaskedtorevisitandstrengthenthe2030targetsintheirnationalclimateplansbytheendof2023.Theywerealsourgedtoaccelerateeffortstophasedownunabatedcoalpowerandphaseout“inefficientfossilfuelsubsidies.”Thedecisiontextrecognizedthatthecurrentglobalenergycrisisbringsintofocustheneedtoquicklytransformenergysys-temsforgreatersecurity,reliability,andresiliencebyspeedingupthetransitiontorenewablesduringthiscrucialdecade.Yetthereisalsoalotofworktodototranslatenationalcoalexitcommitmentsintoplant-by-plantretirementplans.Thepromisingnewdevelopmentsof2022,includingnewJustEnergyTransitionPartnerships,mustensurethatanyemissionscapsandplansarenotonlyconsistentwithNetZerotargets,butalsoa1.5degreepathwayandtimelycoalphaseout.Itisimportanttonotethatinmanydevelopingcoun-tries,especiallythoseheavilydependentoncoal,a2040coalexittranslatestoatransitionatrecordspeedandbringsupimportantequityconsiderations.Theinternationalcommunitymustsupportthesecountriesinmovingawayfromcoalthroughprovisionofpublicandprivatecleanenergyfinance,supporttodevelopflexiblegridinfrastructure,andtechnicalandcapacityassistancetobolsterregulatoryandpolicyframeworksthatacceleratethetransitionfromcoaltoclean.PlantlevelprogressTomeasureprogressonaligningplant-levelplansfornewcapacityandretirementswiththepledgesandParisclimateagreementgoals,CREAandGEMprojectedglobalcoal-firedcapacityovertimeassum-ing(1)allcoalpowerprojectsinactivedevelopmentarerealizedand(2)theplantsthatdon’thaveanannouncedretirementorcoalphaseoutdateretireattheaverageageforeachregiontodate.TheGlobalCoalPlantTrackerdatabaseprovidesinsightintohowtheoutlookforglobalcoalpowercapacityhaschanged,andallowstrackingprogressBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202315GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEtowardsphasingoutunabatedcoalinlinewiththe1.5degreepathway.Coalphaseoutschedulesaregenerallybasedona2018reportbyGlobalEnergyMonitorandGreenpeace,whichdevelopedregionalpathwaysconsistentwiththeprojectedcoal-firedgenerationintheIPCCscenariosforholdingglobalwarmingto1.5degreesCelsius.Theseprojectionsarenotrealisticeconomic-financialscenarios,butratherillustrationsofhowindustryplansarechanging—ornotchanging—inresponsetoeconomicandpoliticaldevelopments.(MoreinformationaboutassumptionsisavailableinAppendixCofBoom&BustCoal2022;China’s“pledgepathway”presumesthebuildoutofproposedcapacityoutto2030.)AsFigure7demonstrates,whileChina’s2060carbonneutralitytargetimpliesthatmostcoal-firedcapacitywillneedtoberetiredby2050(blackdashedline),thecountry’spowerindustryisstillplanninganexpansionincoal-firedcapacityoverthisdecadethattakesthecountry’scapacitypathway(grayline)increasinglyoutofsyncwiththeParis-alignedtrajectory(reddashedline).However,othernon-OECDcountrieshavenotreversedcourseonmakingprogressinscalingbackfuturecoalcapacity.Althoughthisprogressslowedin2022,itdidnotbacktrackdespitemanyclaimingthatcoalwasmakinga“comeback.”ThepathwayasofJan-uary2018dataestimatednon-OECDcoalcapacityat724GWby2040,andthisdroppedto541GWasofJanuary2022data,andto513GWunderthecur-rentpathway(January2023data).Inotherwords,theprojectednon-OECDcapacityby2040under“businessasusual”dropped29%injustfiveyears.Takingintoconsiderationpledges,non-OECDcoalFigure7:Historicandprojectedcoalcapacitybyregion(1990–2050),currentpledges,andthegapto1.5degreesJanuary2023pathwayJanuary2022pathwayPledgespathway1.5°CpathwayChina01000500Non-OECD,excludingChina0600400200OECD2040202020000600400200Global2040202020000200010005001500ProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsChina01000500Non-OECD,excludingChina0600400200OECD2040202020000600400200Global2040202020000200010005001500ProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsChina01000500Non-OECD,excludingChina0600400200OECD2040202020000600400200Global2040202020000200010005001500ProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsChina01000500Non-OECD,excludingChina0600400200OECD2040202020000600400200Global2040202020000200010005001500ProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsProjectionsBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202316GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEcapacityby2040isexpectedtodropto417GW.Toclosethegaptozeroby2040,moreambitiouscommit-ments—aswellasmuchmoreplanning,support,andimplementation—areneeded.OECDcountrieshavealsocontinuedtomakeprogresstowardsphasingoutcoalpower,althoughtheyarestillfarfroma2030phaseoutalignedwiththeParisclimateagreementgoals.ThepathwayasofJanuary2018dataestimatedOECDcoalcapacityat447GWby2030,andthisdroppedto334GWasofJanuary2022data,andto316GWunderthecurrentpathway(January2023data).Thesefigurestotala29%dropinjustfiveyears.AccountingforOECDpledges,coalcapacityisprojectedtofallto300GWby2030.Thedeclineispromising,butthe1.5degreetargetrequiresacompletecoalpowerphaseoutinOECDcountriesnolaterthanthatdate.TheOECDcountrieswiththelargestprojectedcoalpowercapacityin2030aretheU.S.,Japan,SouthKorea,Türkiye,Germany,Poland,andAustralia.Outofthesestragglers,Türkiyeisstillplanningthemostsizablecoalpowerexpansion.Ultimately,progressinmanyOECDandnon-OECDcountrieshasbeenoffsetbythecontinuedannounce-mentsandconstructionstartsfornewprojectsinChina.Comparingthe“businessasusual”pathwaysasofJanuary2022data(yellowlines)withthecurrent“businessasusual”pathways(graylines)makesthisclear.ForChina,lastyear’sprojectedpathwayliesbelowthisyear’sprojectedpathway(yellowlinebelowthegrayline).FortheOECDandnon-OECDcoun-triesexcludingChina,lastyear’sprojectedpathwayliesabovethisyear’sprojectedpathway,reflectingimprovementforthosecountries(yellowlineabovethegrayline).Intheend,whenlookingattheglobalpicture,steepercutsarerequiredthisyearthanwerelastyear.China’sproposedcoalexpansionmeanstheParisclimategoalsarebecomingevermoreelusive.Globally,theprojectedcoal-firedcapacityin2030,ifpledgesareimplemented,isaround2,241GW,whiletheamountofcapacityconsistentwitha1.5degreepathwayisestimatedtobeabouttwo-thirds,or1,470GW.Anadditional800GWwillneedtobecan-celledorretiredtomeettheemissionbudgetsconsis-tentwithlimitingglobalwarmingto1.5degrees.PRIVATEFINANCECOALPOLICYTRENDSIN2022In2022,99privatefinancialinstitutionsadoptedneworupdatedcoalpolicies.TheReclaimFinanceCoalPolicyToolnowcountsatotalof300financierswithatleastabasiccoalpolicy.Asinpreviousyears,however,thegreatmajorityof2022policiesareinsufficienttoalignbanks,insurers,andinvestorswithatrajectoryoflimitingplanetarytemperatureincreasesto1.5degreesCelsius.Only12oftheseneworupdatedpoliciesarestrongenoughtohaltsupportforthedevelopersofnewcoalminesandpowerplants,orsetdeadlinestoendallcoalpower-relatedfinancebythedatesrequiredbytheInternationalEnergyAgency’s(IEA)netzeroemissionsscenario(2030intheOECDand2040else-where).Amongthesignificantnewpoliciesissuedin2022arethosefromLloydsBank,whichnowhasthestrongestpolicyonrestrictingfinancetocoaldevelopersamonglargeUKfinancialinstitutions;theassetmanagerarmofSpanishgroupMAPFRE,whichtighteneditscoaldeveloperpolicy;andAgirc-Arrco,oneofthemajorplayersintheFrenchretirementsystem,whichadoptedarobustcoalphaseoutpolicyinDecember2022.Whilethegreatmajorityofupdatestoexistingpoliciesrepresentanincreaseinambition,ItalianbankUniCreditbacktrackedonitspreviouspolicybyintroducingsomeexceptionstoitsrequirementthatitsclientsprovideplanstophaseoutcoaluseby2028.FrenchassetmanagementgiantAmundi,partoftheCréditAgricolegroup,alsointroducedaloopholebyweakeningitscommitmenttoexcludefinancingforcoaldevelopers.BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202317GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEAdoptingastrongcoalpolicyisonlysteponeforabankthatiscommittedtoexitingthesector.Thenextvitalstepisforbankstoactuallyapplytheirpolicies.ReclaimFinanceresearchinearly2022foundthatCréditAgricolebank,whichpublishedagloballylead-ingcoalpolicyin2020,wasnotfullyapplyingthispol-icy,includingbycontinuingtofinancecoaldeveloperslikeGlencoreandMarubeni.Thelackofmechanismstoensurecompliancewithfinancialsectorpoliciesisanongoingconcern.Oneunfortunatetrendthatcontinuedin2022sawcompaniesdecarbonizingtheirbalancesheetsbysell-ingcoalplantstonewowners,ratherthanclosingtheplantsdownviajusttransitionprocesses.InNovem-ber2022,Malaysia’sSembcorpIndustriesapprovedtheUS$1.5billionsaleofitsIndiancoalpowerstations,BanderandMuthukurMandal,toanOma-ni-ownedcompany.Sembcorpclaimedthatthedeal“acceleratesthetransformation[ofits]portfoliofrombrowntogreen.”AccordingtotheFinancialTimes,thedealallowsSembcorptoavoidtriggeringhigherinterestpaymentsonasustainability-linkedbond.Theevasionofresponsibilityforthecoalplants’emissionsisparticularlyegregiousinthiscaseasSembcorp“willalsofinancetheassetsforthenext15yearsbecauseitsaidrestrictionsonnon-greeninvestingwouldmeananybuyercouldfinditdifficulttosecurefinancingforcoal.”InterestamongmajorglobalprivatefinancialplayersinpromotingJustEnergyTransitionPartnerships(JETPs)continuedin2022.JETPs,whichareoneoftheprioritiesfortheGlasgowFinancialAllianceforNetZero(GFANZ),arefocusedonfinancingajusttransi-tiontocleanenergyinheavilycoaldependentcoun-triesinAsiaandAfrica.AttheG20SummitinNovember2022,agroupofgovernmentsissuedajointstatementnotingthattheywouldworktomobilizeUS$20billionforaJETPforIndonesia,halftocomefromdonorgovernmentsandmultilateralbanks,andhalffromprivatebanksandinvestorscoordinatedbyGFANZ.ThefollowingmonthasimilarstatementwasissuedonaJETPforVietnamwhichpledgedtomobilizeUS$15.5billion,alsosplitequallybetweenpublicandprivatesources.AdditionaldetailsareavailableintheIndonesiaandVietnamsectionsbelow.WhileanearlyshutdownofcoalpowerplantsinAsiaisessentialforhittinga1.5degreesCelciustarget,thereremainsmuchuncertaintyoverthetermsonwhichprivateactorsarewillingtofinanceJETPs,howmuchnewmoneydonorgovernmentswillprovide,andhowmuchhostgovernmentsmightpushforJETPstofinancedirtyenergysuchasfossilgas,bio-mass,anddirtyhydrogen.NoneoftheGFANZmem-bersinitiallynamedaspotentialfinanciersoftheseJETPs—includingBankofAmerica,Citi,DeutscheBank,HSBC,Macquarie,MUFG,andStandardChar-tered—havesignificantpoliciestoendtheirsupportforcoaldevelopers,whichcastsdoubtontheserious-nessoftheircommitmenttofinancingjusttransitionsoutofcoal.CHANGESTOCHINA’SOVERSEASCOALPROJECTSSincePresidentXi’spledgeto“notbuildnewcoal-firedpowerprojectsabroad”wasmadeinSeptember2021,thedevelopmentofoverseascoalplantsbackedbyChinahasslowedbuthasnothaltedcompletely.Analysisofcoalprojectsreceivingeitherfinancingorengineering,procurement,andconstruction(EPC)contractsfromChinesefirmsestimatesthat19%(21GW)oftheapproximately108GWofChina-backedoverseascoalcapacityplannedatthetimetheannouncementwasmadehavebeencancelledorpresumedcancelled,mainlyduetopolicychangesincountrieslikeVietnam,SouthAfrica,andIndone-sia.Thistrendemphasizestheimportanceofhostcountries’policiesindrivingwhichtechnologiesareprioritizedintheenergytransition.BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202318GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEOntheflipside,nearly40%ofChina-backedcoalproj-ectshavemovedforward.Inthefaceofvariousforces,includingtheshakeupofcommoditypricesin2022,somecountrieschosetoexpediteorrestartexistingcoalpowerdevelopments.Pakistan,forinstance,resurrectedplansforChinatofinancethe300MWGwadarplant.Over13GWwerecommissionedinthelastyear.Another7.6GWenteredintoconstruction,bringingthecurrentcapacityunderconstructionto18GW.Theseprojectsarenotconsidered‘new’underChina’spledge,havingsecuredfinancingorbeeninconstructionatthetimeofthe2021announcement.However,theiradditiontotheglobalcoalunderdevel-opmentissignificantandwillbecapacitythathostcountrieswillhavetocontendwithphasingdownby2040toalignwithclimatetargets.Nationalplanstoincreasefossilfuel-basedgenerationriskthediversionofvitalfinancingtootherpollutingsourceswithhighstrandedassetrisk,ratherthanfromcoaltoclean.China’spledgeandtheNational3.Thesizeofcoal-firedpowergeneratingunitsvarieswidely.Note:TheJanuary2023GlobalCoalPlantTrackeridentifies91.5GWofcapacitywithpermitsissuedin2022(125unitsat61differentplantsites).Someunitswithoutknownpermittingdatesalsoappeartohavemovedintoconstructionin2022.FutureGlobalCoalPlantTrackerreleaseswillincluderefined2022dataifmoreinformationisidentified.4.TheJanuary2023GlobalCoalPlantTrackeridentifies11.7GWofcapacitywithpermitsissuedin2021.DevelopmentandReformCommission’sGuidanceonGreeningtheBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI)stillhavethepotentialtoremove58GWofcoalprojectsbackedbyChinesefirmsthatremaininlimbo.Cancellingtheremainingproposedcoalplantsorconvertingthemtorenewableprojectscouldavoidadding265milliontonnesofCO2emissionsfromcoalpowerannually.Oftheseprojects,anestimated60%(37GW)haveyettoreachfinancialclosureandcanbecancelledbygov-ernmentsandtheotherstakeholdersinvolvedtoavoidstrandedassetrisks.Theremaining18GWinearlydevelopmentstagescouldbeconvertedtorenewableenergytoavoidadding88milliontonnesofCO2fromcoalannually.ASeptember2022reportbyCREAandPeopleofAsiaforClimateSolutionstitled1-YearLater:China’sBanonOverseasCoalPowerProjectsandItsGlobalClimateImpactsprovidesadditionalcontextonthepledge.CHINA:MASSIVESURGEINNEWPLANTPERMITSCoalpowerplantpermitting,constructionstarts,andnewprojectannouncementsaccelerateddramaticallyinChinain2022,withnewpermitsreachingthehigh-estlevelsince2015.ThecoalpowercapacitystartingconstructioninChinawassixtimesgreaterthantherestoftheworldcombined.50GWofcoalpowercapacitystartedconstruction,amorethan50%increasefrom2021.Manyoftheseprojectshadtheirpermitsfast-trackedandmovedtoconstructioninamatterofmonths.Atotalofaround100GWofnewcoalpowerprojectswerepermitted,theequivalentoftwolargecoalpowerplantsperweek.3Theamountofcapacitypermittedmorethanquadrupledfrom23GWin2021.4Oftheprojectspermittedin2022,60GWwerenotunderconstructioninJanuary2023,butwerelikelytostartconstructionsoon,indicatingevenmoreconstructionstartsin2023.Intotal,86GWofnewcoalpowerprojectswereinitiated,morethandoublingfrom40GWin2021.26GWofnewcoalpowercapacitywasaddedtothegridin2022,unchangedfrom2021.Capacityaddi-tionswilllikelyaccelerateinthenextfewyearswhentheprojectsthatbrokegroundin2022starttocomeonline.Plantretirementssloweddownfurtherin2022,with4.1GWofcoal-firedcapacitycloseddown.Cur-rentpolicyencourageseitherretrofittingolderplantsorkeepingthemonlineas-isforback-upcapacity,ratherthanretirementanddeconstruction.BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202319GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEWhatisdrivingnewcoalpowerprojects?TheChinesecentralgovernment’spolicyonnewcoalpowerplantshasbeengraduallyloosenedsincetheoutbreakoftheCOVID-19pandemicinearly2020.Insummer2022,thecountryexperiencedarecord-breakingheatwaveanddroughtthatledtoverylowavailabilityofhydropowerandincreasedelectric-itydemandforairconditioning.Thissituationledtoconcernsaboutthesufficiencyofgeneratingcapacitytomeetpeaksinelectricitydemand.Thoseconcernsseemtohavepromptedcentralandprovincialgov-ernmentstopursueanincreaseincoalpowerplantdevelopmentasacostlyandsub-optimalsolution,especiallyinmajorelectricitydemandcentersandprovincesneighboringthem.Aspricesforimportedgasskyrocketedin2022,thecoastalprovincesthathavereliedongas-firedpowerplantstocoverdemandpeaksseemtobereplacingoratleastbuildingalternativesforgaspower.Somelargewindandsolarpowerdevelopmentsinremoteareasrequirenewthermalpowertoregulatethevoltageandfrequencyofthegrid.Anadditionalenablingfactoristhatdespiteimpres-siveaccelerationincleanenergyinstallations,theyear-over-yearpowergenerationadditionsstillhaven’treachedthelevelwheretheymatchannualgrowthinelectricitydemand,resultingincontinuedgrowthindemandforpowergenerationfromcoal.Thepointwhenalldemandgrowthiscoveredfromcleansourcesishoweverlikelytobereachedsoon,asthetargetsforannualwindandsolarinstallations,inpar-ticular,keepincreasing.WhileChina’sNationalEnergyAdministrationhassupportedanincreaseincoalpowerdevelopment,italsosaidinFebruary2022thatnewcoalpowerplantsshouldnotbepermittedsolelyforthepurposeofbulkpowergeneration,butonlytosupportgridstabilityortheintegrationofrenewableenergy.Whilesomeofthenewcoalpowerprojectsfollowthisrationale,manydonot.■OfChina’ssixregionalgrids,theSouthandEastgridaretheonlyonesthatdon’tsufferfromaclearthermalpowerovercapacityproblem.Yet,50%ofnewlyannouncedprojectsand40%ofconstructionstartstookplaceinthegridswithovercapacity.■Theprovincespermittingalargeamountofnewcoalpowerplantstrytojustifytheprojectsas“sup-porting”powercapacitytoensuregridstabilityandrenewableenergyintegration.Thesejustifica-tionsdon’tholdwater,however,astheplantsareintendedtorunatbaseloadutilization,andthesespecificprovincesarelaggardsingrowingcleanenergygenerationtomeettheirdemandgrowth.Currently,localgovernmentsareallowedtoissuepermitswithverylittle,ifany,scrutinyorjustifica-tion,andtheyarerushingtopermitasmuchnewcoalcapacityaspossiblewhilethisremainsthecase.Localgovernmentsarealwayskeenonanykindofnewconstructionproject,astheybringineconomicactivityanddemandforconstructionmaterialsandservicesfromlocalstate-ownedenterpriseswhiletherisksarebornebythecentralgovernment-controlledbankingsystem.Newcoalpowerprojectsdon’tseemattractivetodevelopers.However,encouragementfromthecentralgovernmenttobuildmorecoal-firedcapacitycreatesanexpectationthatinvestorswillbemadewhole,forexamplethroughcutstocoalpricesorincreasestoelectricitytariffs,increasingprofitability.Attheveryleast,centralgovernment-controlledbankswillabsorbanylosses.Thegovernmentisalsopreparingcapacitypaymentsforcoalpowerplants,andtheanticipationofsuchpaymentscanmakeinvestmentsmoreattractive.BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202320GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEWhataretheimplicationsforCO2emissions?Themassiveadditionofnewcoal-firedcapacitydoesn’tnecessarilymeanthatcoaluseorCO2emis-sionsfromthepowersectorwillincreaseinChina.Providedthatgrowthinnon-fossilpowergenerationfromwind,solar,andnuclearcontinuestoaccelerate,andelectricitydemandgrowthstabilizesorslowsdown,powergenerationfromcoalcouldpeakanddecline.PresidentXihasalsopledgedthatChinawouldreducecoalconsumptioninthe2026–30period.ThiswouldmeanadecliningutilizationrateofChina’svastcoalpowerplantfleet,ratherthanacontinuedgrowthincoal-firedpowergeneration.TheChinesegovernmentisactivelyconsideringtheintroductionofcapacitypaymentsforcoal-firedpowerplants,whichcouldmakefallingutilizationmorepalatableforplantowners.Notonlywoulditbepossibletoearnrevenueontheelectricitygenerated,butalsothroughtheregulatedcapacityprovidedtothesystem.Butevenso,hundredsofbrand-newcoalpowerplantswillmakemeetingChina’sclimatecommitmentsmorecomplicatedandcostly.Thepoliticallyinfluentialownersoftheplantshaveaninterestinprotectingtheirassetsandavoidingarapidbuild-outofcleanenergyandphaseoutofcoal.WhileChinaismakingrapidprogressinscalingupcleanenergy,thecountry’spowersystemremainsdependentoncoalpowercapacityformeetingelectricitypeakloadsandmanagingthevariabilityofdemandandcleanpowersupply.Thecontinuedadditionofnewcoalpowercapacityimpliesinsuffi-cientemphasisonovercomingthepowersystemandpowermarketconstraintsthatperpetuatedependenceoncoal.Theworst-casescenarioisthatthepressuretomakeuseofthenewlybuiltcoalpowerplantspreventsasteepfallinutilizationandleadstoamoderationinChina’scleanenergybuildoutand/orthepromotionofenergy-intensiveindustriestoconsumetheelec-tricity.ThisscenariocouldmeanamajorincreaseinChina’sCO2emissionsoverthisdecade,underminingtheglobalclimateeffort,andcouldevenputChina’sclimatecommitmentsindanger.Aretherealternatives?Whilemanyoftherecentlypermittedprojectscannotbejustifiedunderthepolicyofcoalpowerplayinga“supporting”role,thewaveofnewprojectsdoesshowarealchallenge:Chinaismakingrapidprogressinscalingupcleanenergy,butthepowersystemremainsdependentoncoalpowercapacityformeetingelec-tricitypeakloadsandmanagingthevariabilityofdemandandcleanpowersupply.AsChinaneedstostartreducingcoal-firedpowergen-erationandelectricitydemandforcoolingincreases,othersolutionstomanagethevariabilityofdemandandcleanpowersupplyareneeded.Theyincludeincreasedinvestmentinelectricitystorage,flexibility,andtransmissionwithingridregions.ThegrowthinpeakloadscouldbeeffectivelymitigatedthroughstrengthenedenergyefficiencyrequirementsforA/Cunitsandfornewbuildings,andbyintroducingapro-gramoflarge-scaleenergyefficiencyimprovementsforexistingbuildings.BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202321GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEINDIA’SMIXEDSIGNALS:UNCERTAINFUTUREFORTHEENDOFCOALIndiahasthemostoperatingandproposedcoalplantcapacityintheworldafterChina.In2022,thecoun-trysentmixedsignalsregardingitsfuturecoaluse.Whilethegovernmenthascommittedtoeventuallyphasedowncoal,ithasnotsetaformaltimeline.InSeptember2022,India’sPowerMinistersharedthatIndiawouldaddnearly56GWofcoalpowercapac-ityby2030,nearlyaquarteroftheexisting234GWfleet—absentadropinthecostofelectricitystorage.Themoveisintendedtoprioritize“providingreli-ablepowertospureconomicgrowth”inadditiontoinvestmentsinrenewableenergy.InJanuary2023,thegovernmentaskedutilitiestoholdoffonretiringcoalplantsuntil2030tomeetelectricitydemand,afterlastyear’sunusuallyearlyandbrutalheatwavecausedpowershortagesandaffectedmillions.TheCoalMinistrycontinuesintandemtoopennewcoalblocksforcommercialauction.ThetemporarycoalshortagelastyearemboldenedtheIndiangovern-menttopressaheadwithplanstodevelop99newcoalprojectswithproductionof427milliontonnesperyear.Alreadyin2023,atrancheofnewcoalauctionscontinuestoacquirebidders.Theprospectofminingnewcoalblocksisinstrategicconflictwiththegovern-ment’spledgetoachievenetzeroemissionsby2070andthefactthat36%ofoperatingcapacityatexistingminesgoesunused.Intermsofpromisingcoalpowerphase-downsignals,Indiaonlycommissioned3.5GWofnewcoalpowercapacityin2022.Excludingapandemicslumpin2020,thiswasthelowestannualadditionsincea2014peakat20.8GW(Figure8).From2015to2022,IndianFigure8:NewlyoperatingandretiredcoalcapacityinIndiabyyear,2000–20222022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022001200002010515GigawattsCommissionedRetiredNetchangeBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202322GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEpre-constructioncoalpowercapacityalsodecreasedbynearly88%,from239.1GWto25.9GW—andupjust2.6GWin2022,to28.5GW(Figure9).Forthefirsttimeinyears,zeronewnon-captivecoalplantsweregrantedenvironmentalclearancein2022.Onlyonecaptivecoalplant,thefiercelyopposedJSWUtkalSteelplant—a900MWcoaland“byproduct”gasbasedplantinOdisha—receivedanenvironmentalclearanceinApril2022(i.e.waspermitted).Asapre-viousanalysisbyIndia’sLegalInitiativeforForestandEnvironmentnotes,thetrickleinnewprojectapprov-alsreflectshowdifficultitisbecomingtosetupnewcoalplantsinIndia.Itwasalsoarecordlowyearfornewcoalplantsbreakingground:the120MWBodalcaptivecoalplantappearedtobetheonlysitewhereconstructiononanewprojectbeganin2022.Figure9:Coalcapacityinconstructionandpre-constructioninIndia,2014–20222022202120202019201820172016201520140300200100GigawattsConstructionPermittedPre-permitAnnouncedBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202323GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEHowever,itisclearthatnewcoalcontinuestobeactivelyconsideredinIndia.Thecountryhas28.5GWofcoalpowercapacityplanned,aboutathirdofwhichisalreadypermitted,and32GWofcoalpowercapac-ityunderconstruction.TamilNadu,Odisha,andUttarPradeshleadthewayintermsofnewcoalpowerdevelopmentoverall(Figure10).Afewnewproposedcoalplantssoughtoutand/orweregrantedTermsofReference(ToR)in2022.Forexample,inJuly2022,theChiefMinisterofRajasthanannouncedproposalstosetupnewcoalcapacityattheChhabraThermalPowerStationandKalisindhThermalPowerStationinamovetohelpthestate“becomeself-reliantinpowergeneration”andalso“increaseemploymentopportunitiesandlocalareadevelopment.”Variouspre-constructionprojectspreviouslyconsid-eredtobeshelvedorcancelledalsoappearedreacti-vated,includingattheproposedBasundhara,Bithnok,DeenbandhuChhotuRam,Lara,Raghunathpur,andUdangudipowerstations.Therewerealsosignsofmomentumtopotentiallyunblockvarious“stressed”coalplantsites,whichmeanthaltedconstructionprojectswereconsideredtoberevived.Backin2018,aspecialparliamentarycommitteeidentified34stressedpowerassetstotalling40GWthatwerestrug-glingorotherwisenotmakingprogresstobecommis-sioned.Despiteeffortsbythegovernment,lenders,andprojectsupportersoveryears,theunderlyingissueshavegenerallypersistedovertheyears,suchascostoverruns,coalsupplydisruptions,andalackofpowerpurchaseagreements.Withinthelastyear,OdishasawthestalledJharsugudaInd-BarathplantacquiredbyJSWEnergy,whichisnowreportedlyexpectedtobefullyoperationalwithintwoyears,andtheMalibrahmaniplantacquiredbyJindal,whichisreportedlyprojectedtoprovidepowertoasteelplantinAngulwithinayear.TheThermalExpertAppraisalCommitteealsoregrantedToRforthestalledKSKMahanadiPowerProjectinChhattisgarhastheplantmovedthroughinsolvencyproceedings.InAndhraPradesh,theMeenakshiEnergyThermalPowerProjectappearedontracktobeacquiredbyVedanta.Figure10:Coalcapacityinconstructionandpre-constructioninIndiabystate,2022010987654321GigawattsTamilNaduUttarPradeshOdishaTelanganaJharkhandMadhyaPradeshChhattisgarhBiharRajasthanWestBengalMaharashtraKarnatakaAndhraPradeshHaryanaConstructionPermittedPre-permitAnnouncedBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202324GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEIndiafacesaveryrealcrunchthatrequirescarefulnear-andlong-termplanning.InMarch2023,forthesecondyearinarow,Indiainvokedanemergencylawtoforcepowerplantsthatrunonimportedcoal,whicharetypicallyuncompetitivecomparedtopowergeneratedfromcheapdomesticcoal,tomaximizeout-putaheadofanexpectedsurgeinpowerdemandthisspringandsummer.AsaCREAanalysishighlightedinMay2022,theemergencymeasuresreflecttwothings:First,thecountryhasenoughpowergenerationcapacity,andsecond,thedomesticcoalbasedpowerstationsaren’tstockingenoughcoalbeforesummerpeaksandmonsoonswhendemandishighandthereisrestrictedcoalminingandtransportcapacity.Inotherwords,relatedpowerdeficitsaretheresultofamanagementcrisisratherthanafuelshortageorpowergenerationinfrastructureshortage.Atthesametime,thecountryalsofacestheworseningpublichealthandenvironmentalimpactsofcoal.Theenvi-ronmentministryintroducedmorestringentpollutionstandardsforcoalplantsin2015,butthedeadlinetocomplywiththestandardswaspushedbackyetagaininSeptember2022.AsManthanAdhyayanKendrahighlighted,poorcoalashmanagementisimpactinglocalcommunitiesandpowergeneration.Thecoun-tryhasonlyretired15.7GWtodate.Withmorethan30GWofoperatingcoalcapacityatunitsabove30yearsold,Indiashouldpursuemechanismstoretireold,pollutingunitsassoonaspossibleandrepurposethesitestosupportrenewables.Ultimately,IndiahastheopportunitytoacceleratetheglobalcoaltoclearenergytransitionunderG20leadership,addressingthetwinneedsofenergyaccessandenergysecurity.AsisthecaseforChinaandothercountries,simultaneouslyinvestinginbothcoalandrenewableswillonlyresultinamessierenergytransi-tionforIndia.Itistimeforthecountrytofinalizeandimplementaboldno-new-coalplantoensureenergyandeconomicdevelopmentplansareinlinewithitsclimatechangeandnetzerocommitments.India’stargetsforcleanpowercapacitycouldenablethecountrytostartphasingdowncoalwellbefore2030,evenassumingpowerdemandgrowthcontinues.Withthelowcostsofrenewableenergy,itiscrucialtoanticipatetheclosuresofexistingcoalplantsandunprofitableminestoavoidstrandedcoalassetsandunnecessaryhardshipsforcoalcommunities.Figure11:Changesinprojectstatusin2022forcoalcapacityunderdevelopmentinIndiabystateCommissionedConstructionrestarted/startedNewprojectre-activated/startedPermitted043210.54.53.52.51.5GigawattsOdishaChhattisgarhTamilNaduAndhraPradeshWestBengalHaryanaUttarPradeshJharkhandBiharTelanganaGujaratRajasthanBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202325GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLETHEU.S.LEADSTHEWAYINCOALRETIREMENTS,ASMOMENTUMAWAYFROMCOALNEEDSTOCONTINUEINCREASINGTheU.S.continuestotransitionawayfromcoal,withover13.5GWretiredin2022alone.AccordingtotheSierraClub,139GWhasceasedburningcoalsince2010.Ofthe212GWstilloperatingtoday,another37%hasbeencommittedtoretirepriorto2031.Over19GWofannouncedretirementsweremadein2022alone,whichwasgreaterthanfiveoftheprevioussixyears.Moreover,nonewcoalplantshavecomeonlineintheU.Ssince2014,andnonewplantsarebeingproposed.However,despitethesteadyprogresstowardretiringexistingcoal,theU.S.stilloperatesthethirdlargestcoalfleetintheworldbehindChinaandIndia.TheWhiteHousehasannouncedagoalofan80%carbon-freepowersectorby2030.Towardthatgoal,SierraClubandpartnersareadvocatingtoensureallcoalinthecountryisretirednolaterthan2030.Thisrequiresanaverageof17GWofcapacityretirementannouncementseachyearpriortotheendofthedecade.The2022InflationReductionAct(IRA)offersincen-tivestomanufactureanddeploysmallandlarge-scalecleanenergyandstorage,aswellasprogramstoalleviateexistingcoaldebtandtaxcreditstositecleanenergyprojectsincommunitiescurrentlyandhistor-icallyreliantoncoal.WiththepassageoftheIRA,anFigure12:NewlyoperatingandretiredcoalcapacityintheU.S.(2000–2022)andplannedretirementsthrough2035CommissionedRetiredPlannedretirements2035203420332032203120302029202820272026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120000-20-10GigawattsBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202326GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEestimated99%ofcoalplantsarenowmoreexpensivetorunthannewsolarandwind.However,thereismuchtobedonetoensurethatthefundingintheIRAisdistributedproperlyandthatutilitiesthatareentrenchedwiththefossilfuelindustrytakeadvan-tageofthesefederalprograms.Atthesametime,theU.S.mustcontinuetoactoverthenextfewyearstostrengthenandenforcefederalpollutionsafeguardsatcoalpowerplants,investintransitioningcommunitiesbeyondcoal,andacceler-atetheadoptionofrenewableenergy.In2022,advo-catescalledontheEnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)topursueacomprehensiveregulatorystrategytoaddresspowersectorpollution,andbyearly2023,expressedconcernthattheagencywasfallingbehindonnineoftenkeypowersectorrules.Withoutpickingupthepace,theadministrationrisksleavingcriticalstepseitherunfinishedattheendofPresidentBiden’sfirsttermorsubjecttotheCongressionalReviewAct.TheU.S.,likemanyothercountries,mustalsoensureitscoalfleetisnotreplacedbynewgas-firedcapacity.Theimpactsofcoal’slegacyinthecountryremainachallenge.In2022,eventhoughmanymoremineclosuresareexpectedthaninvestments,severalnewcoalminesopened,includingtheLongviewcoalprojectinWestVirginia.Othertroublingcasessuchasthe2022dealforacryptocurrencyminingoperationattheMeromGeneratingStationinIndianacouldkeeppowerprojectsonlinebeyondtheirinitialtargetedretirements.Otherplants,includingtheEdgewaterGeneratingStationinWisconsin,havealsohadtheirupcomingretirementdatespushedbackbyseveralyearsduetosomecombinationofsupplychaindis-ruptions,gridreliabilityissues,anddelaysinprojectconversion.Figure13:U.S.historicandprojectedcoalcapacity(2015–2030)andthegapto1.5degrees20302029202820272026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620150300200100GigawattsOperatingcapacityOperatingcapacitybasedonplannedretirementsOperatingcapacitydecreaseneededina1.5degreepathwayBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202327GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEIndustryplanstoextendthelifeoftheU.S.coalfleetthroughCarbonCaptureandStorage(CCS)havenot,asofyet,proventobesuccessful.Forexample,thePetraNovaCCSprojectattheParishGeneratingStationinTexashasbeenon-againoff-againforoveradecade,withNRGEnergydeclaringtheprojectuneconomicalin2021anddisposingoftheirsharesin2022.(See“TheRoleOf‘CleanCoal’TechnologiesInDecarbonizingTheCoalPowerSector”inBoom&BustCoal2022.)Despitethesefailingpilotprojects,CCSproposalsareincreasingandgainingtractionduetofundingintheIRA.TheproposedCONSOLEnergyMiningComplexplantinPennsylvaniawaslaudedasan“advancedcarbon-negativepowerplant”whenitwasinitiallyfundedthroughtheUSDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)CoalFIRSTprogram,anditwastheonlycoalprojectintheUSunderdevelopmentinthelastyear.CON-SOLclaimedthatitstechnologycouldresultinazeroemissionscoalplantonthemarketby2030.Adanger-ouspromise,theprojectexemplifiedhowthepursuitof“cleancoal”takestimeandfundingawayfromrenewablealternatives.AsofJanuary2023,theprojectwaspresumedshelvedbuthasnotbeenconfirmedascancelled.Newreportscontinuetohighlighttheurgentneedtophasecoalout.Forexample,groupsdemonstratedthattheutilityindustryisviolatingcoalashregula-tionsineverystatewherecoalisburned,andthatU.S.coalplantsareresponsiblefor3,800prematuredeathsayearduetofineparticlepollutionfromsmokestacks.InNovember2022,theGavinplantinOhiobecamethefirstcoalplantorderedbytheEPAtohaltcoalashdumpinginunlinedponds.COALISNOTMAKINGACOMEBACK:LASTRESORTMEASURESINTHEEUROPEANUNIONANDUNITEDKINGDOMTheEuropeanUnion(EU)andUnitedKingdomappeartohaveendedthedevelopmentofcoal-firedpowerstations:therearecurrentlynocoalpowerplantsinpre-constructionandjustoneprojectunderconstruc-tion.Whilethegascrisispromptedaslowdownincoalretirementsin2022,theEUbannedimportsofRussiancoalandphaseddownimportsofRussiangasandoilafterthecountry’sinvasionofUkraine,aswellassteppedupcommitmentstobuildrenewables.AnunprecedentedamountofsolarpowercapacitywasbuiltintheEU,with41.4GWconnectedtothegridandsignificantgrowthdrivenbyprosumerinstallations.Still,thegascrisispromptedsevencountriestopermittorestartorextendoperationsat26coal-firedunitsduetoenergysecurityconcerns—19(73%)ofthoseinGermany.Butthankstoamplesolarandwindpower,combinedwithamildEuropeanwinter,theseunitshadlowgenerationrates.Whatappearedtobeaspikeincoalcapacityaddedonly1%tototalEUcoalgener-ationin2022.Lastyear,twoadditionalcrisescreateda7%deficitinEUpowergeneration:aoncein500yearsdroughtreducedhydrogeneration,andoutagesatFrenchnuclearplantscontributedtothelowestnucleargen-erationsinceatleast2000.Nevertheless,theEUfilledmuchoftheshortfallwithwindandsolargeneration,accordingtoEmber.Coalgeneration,meanwhile,comprisedonlyone-sixthoftheshortfall,whichboostedgeneration28TWh,a6.7%increasesince2021(419TWhto447TWh).Theanticipatedboomincoalplantrestartsalsofailedtomaterializeinmuchoftheregion.TheAustrianParliamentvotedagainstatemporaryreopeningoftheMellachpowerstationandotherpowerstationscarriedthroughwithplannedretirements,includingoneunitoftheMegalopolipowerstationinGreeceandtheMintia-DevapowerstationinRomania.IntheUK,retiredcapacityofcoal-firedpowerstationsdou-bledfrom15GWin2015toover30GWin2022,withnobacktrackingin2022.InGermany,itmorethandoubledfrom12GWto25GWinthesametimeperiod.BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202328GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLETheregion’stemporaryrestartsandextensionsarealsogenerallyexpectedtowinddownin2023and2024,andthereboundinretirementsinthenextfewyearscouldmakeupforthelowerthanexpectedretirementsin2022(Figure14).Sofar,anadditional60GWofcapacityisexpectedtoberetiredby2030.Althoughsomeofthiscapacityisslatedforreplace-mentbynonrenewableanduneconomicalalterna-tives,likeLNGandbiomass,renewabledevelopmentspromiselong-term,reliablepotentialfortheregion.DespitetheoverwhelmingmajorityofEuropeancoun-triesonlyconsideringandengaginginveryshort-termcoalmeasuressofar,thereareafewexceptionstotherule.Forexample,inHungary,whichhasa2025coalexitdate,thepossibilityofextendingthelifetimeofthelignite-firedgenerationunitsattheMátraplantuntiltheendof2029isbeingconsidered,butthiswouldhardlyqualifyasanunavoidable,short-termmeasureandmustbeabandoned.InGreece,whichnowhasa2028coalexitdate,thegovernmentrecentlyannouncedthatthenewPtolemaidaVlignite-firedpowerunitcouldremaininthesystemasastrategiccoalreserveunitafter2028.Alltold,fourcountrieshavephasedoutcoal(Austria,Belgium,Sweden,andPortugal)andthemajorityofnationshaveacoalexitplanned.Butvoluntarycommitmentsmaynotbeasstrongofanindicatoraswasoncehoped.Afewyearsago,France’s2022phaseouttargetappearedwithinreach.Butover2.5GWremainsinoperationinJanuary2023.AsupervisorattheEmileHuchetplant,whichrehiredworkersforaNovember2022recommissioning,calledthedecisionFigure14:PlannedcoalcapacityretirementsinEU+UKbyyear(asofJanuary2022versusJanuary2023)Pre-invasionretirementplans(2022–2025)Actualcapacityretiredin2022andcurrentretirementplans(2023–2025)2025202420232022010515GigawattsBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202329GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEa“necessaryevil.”Timesofcrisis,suchasthatcausedbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,caneasilythrowaspannerintheworksforfragile,non-bindingpolicies.AlthoughasteeperdeclineincoalcapacityisneededtoalignwithaphaseoutofallcoalintheEUandUKbytheendof2030(Figure15),theregionisexpectedtocontinueasoneoftheleadersintheworld’stran-sitionawayfromcoal.In2022,areportfoundthatthemajorityofEuropeancountrieshadsignificantlysteppeduptheirambitionintermsofrenewableenergydeploymentsince2019,whiledecreasingplanned2030fossilfuelgenerationtoshieldthem-selvesfromgeopoliticalthreats.WiththeexceptionofafewverypubliccasesintheUKandGermany—whereanewcoalminewasapprovedandalargemineexpanded—coaloutputinEuropecontinuestofall.Figure15:EU+UKhistoricandprojectedcoalcapacity(2015–2030)andthegapto1.5degrees2030202920282027202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015010050150GigawattsOperatingcapacityOperatingcapacitybasedonplannedretirementsOperatingcapacitybasedonplannedretirementsplusphase-outcommitmentsOperatingcapacitydecreaseneededina1.5degreepathwayBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202330GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLETÜRKIYETürkiyeranksthirdintheworldforproposedcoalpowercapacityunderdevelopment,behindonlyChinaandIndia.Asof2022,around11GWofprojectsareannounced,pre-permitted,orpermitted.Butalloftheseprojectshavestruggledtoobtainfinancing,andoperatingandplannedprojectshavesufferedaseriesoflegalsetbacks.Justone1.3GWcoal-firedpowerstation—theEmbaHunutluplant—wassynchronizedtothegridin2022(potentiallyoneofthelastoverseascoalplantsfinancedbyChineseinstitutions).Thefateofadozenotherprojectshangsinthebalance.Türkiye’sMinistryofEnergyandNaturalResourceshassignaledashifttowardsmoresustainableenergysources.By2035,itplanstoaddover65GWofwindandsolarcapacitytothegridandonly3.2GWofcoalcapacity.Thediscrepancybetweenprojectscurrentlyunderdevelopment(around11GW)andtheMinistry’sprojects(3.2GW)suggeststhataconsiderablenumberofprojectscouldbecancelledwithinthedecade.Thiswouldcontinueatrendsince2016whenTürkiyebegantocancelcoalcapacity,oratleastensureprojectswerenotactivelyunderconsiderationsotheycouldbepre-sumedcancelled,withgreaterurgency.Airpollution,waterpollution,andconcernsabouttheclimatecrisishavecontributedtothelossofthecoalindustry’ssociallicensetooperate.Accordingtoarecentsurvey,twothirdsofthepopulationbelievesthatcoalfiredpowergenerationneedstobesubsti-tutedbycleaneroptions.InOctober2022,areportfromtheClimateChange,Policy,andResearchAssoci-ation,aninterdisciplinaryNGOinTürkiye,foundthattheÇayırhanplantwasoutofcompliancewithfluegasregulationsandburningcoalfromanunpermittedmine.Theplantwasalsoatriskofimminentcollapse.TheYunusEmreplant,whichisfullyconstructedbutunabletooperatebecausetheplant’sboilerisunsuitedforthecoalinthearea,remainsstandingasadeadinvestment.Theinitiativestoselltheplanthavefailedseveraltimesthisyear,andYıldızlarHold-ingboughttheplant,butthedetailsofthepurchaseremainunknown.Atthesametime,theAfşin-ElbistanAplantcontinuestooperatewithoutfulfillingitslegalresponsibilitiesinaccordancewithenvironmentallegislation,allwhileinitiatinganapplicationfortheconstructionoftwonew344MWcoalunitsatthesite.ItisstillunclearhowtheearthquakeonFebruary6,2023affectedtheAfşinAandBpowerplantsinKahramanmaraş,theepicenterofthehumanitariancrisis,buttheTurkishOfficeofStrategyandBudgetestimatesthatthepublicandprivateelectricitysectorsintheregionincurreddamagestotallingaround570millionTL(US$30million).Likeinmanyotherpartsoftheworld,Türkiye’scourtscontinuetoplayaroleindeterminingthefateofproposedcoalprojects.TheKahramanmaraşAdmin-istrativeCourtblockedtheAfşin-ElbistanCplant(thedecisionisonappeal),andTürkiye’sEnergyMarketRegulatoryAuthorityrevokedthegenerationlicenseoftheIlgınplant.IlgınwasalsooneoftwoprojectswithprecariousChinesefinancinginvolvementsinceChina’sSeptember2021overseasfundingpledge;theother,theKirazlıderepowercomplex,securedanEPCcontractwithEnergyChinaovertwoyearsagoandhasnothadanyapparentdevelopmentssince.Financingalsocontinuestobeachallengebroadly,withmany“announced”projectsstilllackingtheprivatefundingthattheyseek.Between2013and2018,operatingcoalcapacityinTürkiyeincreasedby50%,from12.5to18.8GW.Since2018,theincreaseincoalcapacityhassignificantlysloweddown,reaching20.8GWoperatingby2022.Thecoalindustry’srecentstrugglessuggestthatmanynewprojectsmayultimatelybeshelvedandaban-doned,sooperatingcoalcapacityinTürkiyemayhavearguablyreacheditspeakdespitependingplans.Despitemountingenvironmentalproblems,theTurkishMinisterofEnvironment,Urbanization,andClimateChangeannouncedatCOP27thatemissionsfromthecountrywouldnotpeakuntil2038,effectivelydelayingthecountry’senergytransitionandbroadernetzerotargetestablishedas2053justoneyearprior.Inaddition,theriskofcoalmineexpansionstofeedtheexistingcoalpowercapacityremainsaconcern.InBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202331GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEOctober2022,amineexplosioninAmasrakilledover40workers,andtrappedadozenmore,inoneoftheworstcoalminingdisastersinrecentyears.Theinci-dentprovidedastarkreminderofthedeadlyhazardthatcoalminemethaneposestolocalcommunities,inadditiontoitsclimateimpact.Thecountry’songoingmineprojectscontinuetofacestronglocalopposition.UKRAINEEvenbeforeRussia’sinvasionofUkraineinFebruary2022,itsfleetwasstrugglingwithhighincidencesofoperationalfailureandalackofcoalsupplies.Severalcoal-firedpowerstations,manybuiltbefore1973,werealreadyfacingahalf-centuryofwearandtearandoperatingatalimitedcapacity.CoalsuppliesfromtheDonbassregionstoppedalmostentirelyinmid-2014and2015duetothewreckageofcoalminesandtransportationinfrastructurefollowingRussia’sseizureofCrimea.Intheyearssince,productiondataintheDonbasshasremainedspotty.RussianattackshavecontinuedtocausesignificantdamagetoUkraine’senergyinfrastructure.Russiafiredmorethan1,000missilesatsubstations,trans-formers,andpowerstationsinUkraineinOctoberandNovember2022alone.Everythermalpowerstationinthecountryhasbeenimpacted.RussianoccupierstookcontroloffourofUkraine’scoalplantsin2022:theLuganskaya,Myronivskyi,Vuglegirska,andZaporizhiapowerstations.Severalothercoalplantsareinthehotbattleareas.AlthoughUkrainedefiedRussiaandinitiatedelectricityexportstotheEUtohelpwithenergyshortfallsinneighbor-ingcountries,exportshadtobescaledbackfollowingmissilestrikesinthefall.InDecember2022,Ukraine’senergydeficitwasestimatedataround2.5GW,andbyMarch2023,itappearedresolved.Damagetoinfrastructureandtheresultinggridvolatil-ityhasresultedinblackoutsacrossthecountry,whichalsoimpacteddistrictheatingandwatersuppliesinmanycities.TheoperationalcapacityofcoalplantsinthecountrywasmorethanhalvedbetweenJanuary2022andJanuary2023,andthetruegenerationcapac-itywaslikelyevenlower.TheBurshtynplant(2GWpre-war)inwesternUkraine,whichhadoperatedasanindependentenergyislandformanyyears,wasre-synchronizedtothenationalgridinearly2022andisnowvitaltothecountry’senergysecurity.Despiteincurringmajordamagefromrocketstrikes,Burshtynwascontributingcapacitytothenationalelectricitysystemattheendoftheyear.Followingannouncementsin2021bythegovernmentandDTEK,thebiggestprivateinvestorinthecoun-try’senergysector,Ukrainecommittedtophaseoutcoalbetween2035–2040.EvenasRussianhostilitiescontinue,theUkrainiangovernmentanditsNationalCouncilfortheRecoveryofUkrainekickstartedplansforagreenreconstructionafterthewar.AsEcoactionwrites,stakeholdersmustensurethatcoalminingtownsarenotonlyonthefrontlineofthecountry’sresistance,butalsoattheheartofavisiontorebuildafairer,safer,andgreenerUkraine.InFebruary2023,DTEK’sCEOalsosummarized:“WeshouldthinkaboutwhatUkrainewillbelikeafterthevictory,aboutitsfutureasapost-warcountry.IamconvincedthatUkraineshouldbecometheplatformforscalingallinnovationsandglobaltechnologiesinreconstruction.”INDONESIAIndonesiaisoneoftheworld’slargestcoalproducersandconsumers.In2022,Indonesia’soperatingcoalcapacityincreased3%from39.4GWto40.6GW,andisup60%from25.4GWin2015.Thecountryalsohad18.8GWofcoalpowerconsideredunderconstructionbytheendof2022,anamountexceedingallothercountriesexceptChinaandIndia.Someofthiscapac-ityappearedonthecuspofcommercialoperation,BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202332GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEincludingunitsatJawa-4,JawaTengah,LontarExp,andSulselBarru2thattheMinistryofEnergyandMineralResources(MEMR)classifiedas“achieve-ments”in2022.IthaslongbeenclearthatIndonesiawouldnotmoveawayfromcoalwithouttheaidoftheinternationalcommunity,so2022wasabreakthroughyearforthecountry.InNovember2022,aJustEnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP)promisedUS$20billioninfinan-cialsupport(seePrivatefinancecoalpolicytrendsin2022).Whilethedetailsaresetforreleasesometimein2023,theJETPaimstopeakpowersectoremissionsby2030,fasterthantheinitialtargetof2037,andtocapCO2emissionslevelsaboutaquarterlowerthanpreviouslyexpectedbythesametime.ItisoneoffivedifferentEnergyTransitionMechanisms(ETMs)beingimplemented,withothersbeingledbytheAsiaDevelopmentBank,thenationalelectricitycompanyPLN,thegovernment’sIndonesiaInvestmentAuthor-ity,andthestate-ownedinfrastructurecompanyPTSaranaMultiInfrastruktur(Persero).Itisstillunclearhowalltheseschemeswillfunctioncollectively.Theambitiousmeasuresandcommittedfundsareshortofwhatisrequiredina1.5degreesCelsiuspathwaybutareawelcomesignofprogress.Betweenthecoalcapacityinconstructionandpre-constructionstillinthemix,Indonesiamaystillbeawaysawayfromseeingitslastcoalplantcom-missioned.Althoughmorethan8GWofcoalwascancelledin2022,thecountrystillhasaround7GWofcoalcapacityinpre-constructionand8GWofshelvedplans.Recentdevelopmentsdonotguaranteeitwillallbecancelled.Infact,theJETPreaffirmedamoratoriumon“new”on-gridcoalpowergenera-tion,butallowsexemptionsforcaptivecoalplantsinaccordancewithakeypresidentialregulationissuedinSeptember2022(Perpres112/2022)andcoalplantspreviouslyidentifiedintheElectricitySupplyBusinessPlan(RUPTL)for2021–2030.Around13GW(58%)ofthecapacityunderconstruc-tionandinpre-constructionisatproposed“captive”coalplants,meaning“off-grid”plantsthatexclusivelypowerindustrieslikealuminumsmelters(liketheproposed2.2GWAdaroplant)andprocessingfacilitiesformineralslikecobaltandnickelthatareusedinelectricvehicleandbatterysupplychains.IndustrialParksarenationalstrategicprojectsforIndonesia,butasitstands,thelackofstrategicandsustainableplanningaroundmeetingpowerdemandfromsuchprojectscouldbecomearealchallengeforthecoun-try’snetzeroambitions.ForChina,amajorinvestorofcaptivecoalinIndonesia’sindustrialsector,theongoingdevelopmentshavebeenrunningcountertoitspledgestostopsupportingoverseascoalplantsandgreenBRIinvestments.PAKISTANPakistan’scoalfleetboomedfromamere150MWin2016tomorethan7.6GWbyearly2023.Anadditional0.7GWisunderconstruction.Duetoitsdependenceonenergyimportsandafinancialcrisisin2022,Pakistanwasparticularlysusceptibletofuelshortages,soaringLNGcosts,andnumerousblackouts.InJuly2022,thegovernmentreportedlydecidedtoconvertitsexistingpowerplantstorunondomestic,asopposedtoimported,sourcesofcoal.Inthelastyear,2.6GWofcoalcapacitywascom-missionedatthePortQasimLucky,ThalNova,TharBlockI,andTharEnergyLimitedplants.Constructionalsoappearedtobeginattwosmallcaptivecoalplants:a40MWexpansionattheFaisalabadSitaraChemicalpowerplant,and36.5MWattheSheikhupuraplanttosupplypowertoaMughalSteelproject.Thecountryhasanother4GWofpre-constructioncapacityatvariousstagesofdevelopment.Previouslyrumoredtobereplacedwithasolarplant,thepro-posed300MWcoal-firedGwadarplantisexpectedtomoveforwardwithChinesefinancing.Theproj-ectfliesinthefaceofbothChina’s2021pledgetowithdrawfromoverseascoalandPakistan’sstatedmoratoriumonnewimportedcoalprojects.InFebru-ary2022,IslamicDevelopmentBankandOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)FundBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202333GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEloansforasecond660MWunitattheJamshoroplantwerereportedlycancelledatPakistan’srequest;how-ever,bytheendoftheyear,Karachi’sinvestor-ownedutilitycompanywasurgingfortheprojecttobeswitchedtolocalcoalanddevelopedincoordinationwithSaudiArabia.InFebruary2023,EnergyMinisterKhurramalsoannouncedPakistanwasreversingalong-heldstrat-egytoimportmorefuelsincludingLNG.Instead,itwouldaimtoexpandfour-foldthecountry’scoal-firedpowercapacitythatreliesondomesticcoalresources,from2.31GWtoapotential10GW.SuchanincreasewouldsurpassanddefythecoalprojectscontemplatedintheIndicativeGenerationCapacityExpansionPlanfor2022–31.Movingforward,“must-run”obligationsandlongtermcontractsmustbeseriouslyconsid-eredtoavoidlockinginunnecessaryemissionsandexpenses.AnanalysisbyTransitionZeroandIEEFAalsohighlightedboththevolatilitytocoalandgaspowercompetitiveness,andtheneedforreformstoensurerenewableandstoragecostscontinuefalling.Meanwhile,coalinPakistancontinuestowreakhavoconpeopleandtheenvironment.InanOctober2022report,thePolicyResearchInstituteforEquitableDevelopment(PRIED)highlightedtheadverseimpactsofcoalminingandpowerinTharonthelivelihoodofagro-pastoralistcommunities:“Apartfromcon-taminatinglocalwaterresourcesanddegradationofland,changinglandusepatternhasexposedTharistoseverelivelihoodchallenges.”Thecountry’scoalprojects—manyproposedundertheChina-PakistanEconomicCorridor(CPEC)framework—havebeenplaguedbydelays,corruption,andopposition,leadingtosocio-politicalconflictsaswellasasignificantriseinPakistan’sdebt.BANGLADESHUnderthe2016PowerSystemMasterPlan“Revis-ited”(PSMP)releasedinNovember2018,coalpowercapacityinBangladeshwasprojectedtogrowfrom0.5GWin2019to25.5GWby2040.However,byNovember2020,thegovernmentfinalizedplanstocancelpre-constructioncoalplants,andinJune2021,cancelledplansfortenplantsamidconcernsaboutfuelcostsandwidespreadopposition.In2022,another6GWofcoalcapacitymovedfrompre-permittedorshelvedtopresumedcancelled,increasingtheamountofcapacityabandonedsince2014to28.8GW.Thecountry’slastremainingcoalproposals,whichtotal6.7GW,seemincreasinglyunlikelyfollowingChi-na’spledgetoendoverseascoalfinancing:theOrionplantandthePhulbaripowerstations(Gezhouba&Sinohydro).However,inSeptember2021,thesponsorforthePhulbariunitsclaimeditremainedcommit-tedtodeliveringtheprojectsinaformthat“fitsinwiththeBangladeshGovernment’sEnergyandPowerSectordevelopmentambitions”andincludesnewcoalcapacityandalargeopenpitmine.(BangladeshPowerDevelopmentBoard’sMonthlyProgressReportforFebruary2023onlylisted1.9GWofproposedcoal:theOrionplant,withacommentaboutlocationuncer-tainty,andtheMaheshkhaliplant,projectedforJune2030butabsentfromBPDB’srecentannualreports.)Atthesametime,2022sawonenewunitcommis-sionedattheBarisalplant,thefirstindependentpowerproducer(IPP)projectinvested,constructed,andoperatedbyPowerChinaandcontrolledbyaChinese-fundedenterpriseinBangladesh.Inaddition,oneunitwasfinallycommissionedatthecontrover-sialRampalplant.Theplanthadtosuspendproduc-tiononly29daysafteritstartedoperatingbecauseofcoalshortages,andbyFebruary2023,itspowercostwasnearlydoubleinitialestimatesduetotheglobalcoalmarketandUSdollarexchangerate.Constructionalsocontinuedatfiveplantsin2022.Ifcompleted,theadditional5.7GWofcoalpowercapac-itywouldnearlytriplethe2.9GWcoalpowercapacitycurrentlyoperatinginBangladesh.IncludedinthisBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202334GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEin-constructioncapacityisaChinese-backedPhaseIIofBCPCL’sPayraplant,whichwasinitiallyexpectedtobeaxedafterChinapledgeditwouldnotbuildnewcoal-firedpowerprojectsabroad.Bangladesh’spowersystemovercapacityproblemcontinuestogrowandismadeworsebyguaranteedpowerpurchaseagreementsthathaveforcedthecountrytopayforunusedpower.Asfiscalpressuresmountduetodecreasingforeigncurrencyreserves,thecountrymuststopinvestinginnewcoal-andgas-firedcapacity,andinsteadshoreupcost-competitiverenewables,investinitsgrid,andfocusonenergystoragetoensureenergysecurityandaffordability.VIETNAMVietnamhasverysubstantiallyadjusteditsplansfornewcoalpowerplants,butthereisstillawaytogo.Overthelasttwoyears,draftsofthecountry’snewPowerDevelopmentPlanVIII(PDP8)havecutprogressivelymorecoalpower,oftenswitchingcoalprojectstogasandaddingmorerenewables.AJuly2022draftofthePDP8listedfifteencoal-firedpowerstationsplannedfor2021–2030.Severaloftheseproj-ectswerestillinthecontractnegotiationstage,andevenmore(equivalenttoover7GW)werelistedasstrugglingtosecurecapital.PriortoCOP27,negotiationsbetweenVietnamandG7countriessurroundingaJustEnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP)hadfailed.ByDecember2022,thecountrieswereabletoagreeonUS$15.5billioninfundingtosupportVietnam’senergytransition,includingtheexpectationthatitwouldreachpeakemissionsby2030ratherthan2035.Additionally,Vietnamwouldinstalllessthan6GWofadditionalcoalcapacity,downfromtheover12GWpreviouslytargetedandtheover18GWincludedintheJulydraftofPDP8.AnewDecember2022draftcutthelistofcoalprojectstotwelve,severalofwhichhavestruggledtoattractinvestorsandappeartobepivotingtogas.Somedevel-opmentprojects,suchasthelong-delayedQuangTriplant,wereexplicitlycancelledin2022.Phase3oftheVinhTanplant,whichwasoriginallyplannedtobeginconstructionin2010,hasneverbeencancelledyethasbeenlabeledas“troubled”andhasfacedaslewofroadblockssinceinception.Fivepowerstations,equivalenttotheentire6GWnewcoalcapacitytarget,arealreadyunderconstruction.TheLongPhuplant,theQuangTrachplant,Phase2oftheThaiBinhplant,theVanPhongplant,andPhase2oftheVungAngplantareatvaryingstagesofcomple-tionasofJanuary2023.Shouldalloftheseprojectsreachcommercialoperation,theremainingproposedcapacitymustbecancelledinorderforVietnamtostayalignedwithitsJETPagreement.Theexistingoperationalcapacityinthecountry,whichhasmorethandoubledinthelastdecade,con-sistsofover70unitsacross25powerstations.Thecoalfleetisveryyoung,with95%ofthecapacityinstalledinthelast20yearsandnearly80%installedinthelast10years.Coalremainscentraltothelivelihoodofmanyresidentsofthecountry,withnearlytwodozenoperatingmines.ShouldVietnamsuccessfullyphaseoutcoal-firedelectricitygenerationandminingoverthelongterm,anequitableenergytransitionmusttakethispopulationintoconsideration.Thecoun-try’s2050net-zerotargetisachievable,butitrequiresthoughtfuldeploymentofJETPfundsandanupgradetothecountry’stransmissiongridtoaccommodateitsrapidly-growingrenewablessector.Inaddi-tion,ashumanrightsgroupsandothershavebeenhighlighting,thegovernmentmustupholdthehighesthumanrightsstandardstostrengthenandachieveitscommitments.Ajusttransitionrequires“truepartic-ipation,thereleaseofpoliticalprisoners,andrestor-ativejustice.”BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202335GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEPHILIPPINESCoalplantproposalsinthePhilippineshavebeenrap-idlyshrinkingsincethe2020moratoriumonplantsforwhichthepermittingprocesshadnotalreadybegun,withcapacityinpre-constructiondeclining84%from10.1GWin2019to1.6GWin2022.ThemoratoriumwasreaffirmedbyincomingPresidentFerdinandMar-cosinAugust2022,whoseadministrationisseekingtoreplaceexistingandplannedcoalpowerprojectswithnuclearenergy.ThePhilippinesrankedsixthintheworldfornewcapacityin2022,commissioningthe1.3GWDingininplant.TheoperationalcapacityinthePhilippineshasdoubledinthelastdecade,butannualcapacityaddi-tionsarestartingtoplateau.Twoplantsarecurrentlyunderconstruction,the600MWMarivelesplantandasecond135MWunitatConcepcion.Estimatedcompletiondatesfortheremaining1.6GWinpre-constructionhavebeensteadilyslippingintheDepartmentofEnergy’sprojectlistings,asfinancingfornewprojectsvanishesandPhilippineenergycom-paniesmovetoshedtheirexistingcoalassets.Ayalahasbeensellingoffitscoalassetsinrecentyears,andinJuly2022itssubsidiaryACENsecuredfundingthroughanAsianDevelopmentBank-inspiredETMthatwillbeusedtoretirethesix-year-oldPutingBatoplantby2040,fifteenyearsaheadofschedule.TheManilaElectricCompany(Meralco)isnotplanningtoexitcoaluntilsometimebetween2041–2050,andpinseventhislateexitdateonthegovernment’sabilitytoreplacecoalpowerwithnuclear.SOUTHKOREASouthKoreaannouncedanofficial2050coalexityearin2021buthasyettodevelopanyconcreteplanstoexecuteaParis-alignedcoalphaseout.Accordingtothe10thBasicPlanforElectricitySupplyandDemand(2022–2036),Koreaplanstohave41coalunitsoper-atingin2030withatotalcapacityof31.7GW.Thisisonly7.4GWlessthanthecurrentoperatingcapacityof39.1GW,ora19%reduction,andcompletelyoutoflinewiththecountry’sNationallyDeterminedCon-tribution(NDC)undertheParisclimateagreement,whichaimstoreduce40%oftotalnationalgreenhousegasemissionsby2030comparedto2018.Despitethestrongdemandforacoalphaseout,Gangneung’sAninunit1startedoperatinginNovem-ber2022andthreenewunits(Aninunit2,Samcheokunits1and2)arescheduledtogoonlinein2023and2024.However,thefinancialmarketisincreasinglyturningawayfromcoalbusinesses,andonly3.5%(KRW8billion,orUS$6.1million)ofthecorporatebondstofinancetheSamcheokBluePowerprojectweresoldin2023.Infact,thefinancialrisksofcoaldependencyarealreadymanifestingatanationalscale.Duetoitshighcoalexposure,therecentglobalenergypriceincreaseduetotheRussianinvasionofUkrainehasdirectlycontributedtothefinancialcrisisKoreaElectricPowerCorporation(KEPCO)isfacing.In2022alone,themajority-state-ownedutilitysufferedovera32.6trillionKRW(US$25billion)deficit,around30%ofwhichwasdirectlyattributabletocoalpower.DespiteKEPCO’simplementationofaseriesofemergencymeasures,thecrisishashadimpactsbeyondtheutili-ty’sownbalancesheet.Forinstance,thereispoliticalpressureontheNationalPensionServicetopurchaseKEPCO’sbondstohelpabsorbtheimpactsofthecri-sis.AlthoughitisunclearwhetherthePension,whichannouncedacoalexitin2021,wouldrespond,thedecisiontodosowouldspreadthecoalriskstofuturegenerations.IthasthusbecomeclearthatretiringcoalplantsisaprerequisitetofundamentallyensuringthestabilityofKEPCOandthecountry’sfinancialmarket.BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202336GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEMeanwhile,thesocialcostsandnegativeimpactsofacoalexitonworkersandtheregionaleconomyareincreasinglyenteringpolicydiscussions.Communitiesthatdependheavilyoncoalpowergenerationrequirejusttransitionmeasurestopreventjoblossesandeconomicdownturnsintherun-uptotheupcomingclosureofexistingcoalpowerplantsinSouthKorea,astheydointherestoftheworld.InthecaseoftheSouthChungcheongprovince(orChungnam),where30outofKorea’stotal80operatingcoalplantunitsarelocated,14unitsarescheduledtobeclosedbetween2025and2036.Voicesdemandingajusttransitionareresonatingintheregion,andthesubnationalgovernmentestablisheditsownJustTransitionFund.Althoughthefundsendsastrongsignaltothenationalgovernmenttotakeresponsibilityforthegovern-ment-ledcoalexpansionintheprovince,theKRW10billion(US$7.7million)fundisfarfromsufficient.TheChungnamgovernorpubliclydemandedthatthenationalgovernmentenactanacttosupportcoal-regionsandprovidea1trillionKRWfundtotheprovince.InadditiontoChungnam’sdemands,acomprehensivejusttransitionplanisneededtocreatejobsandrevitalizethelocaleconomybytransitioningfromfossilfuelstorenewableenergy-basedindustriesatthenationalscale.JAPANThevolumeofcoalprojectsunderdevelopmentinJapanhasbeensteadilyshrinking,andjustonenewcoal-firedunithasbeenannouncedsince2018.However,operationalcapacityremainedontherisein2022,withover3GWofnewunitsconnectedtothegrid.Over1GWofthiscapacitycamefromtheTaketoyoplant;theprojectprogressedinoppositiontorecommendationsfromJapan’sMinistryoftheEnvironmentin2015and2017,theyearconstructionbegan.UnitsattheKobe,Misumi,andTokuyamaEastplantsalsobeganoperating,eachofwhichfacedsocialand/orlegaloppositionpriortocompletion.Threeunder-constructionpowerstationunitsarealsoslatedforcompletionby2024.Justone500MWcoalgasificationfacilityinpre-per-mitdevelopmentstandsbetweenJapanandaclaimof“nonewcoal”inthecountry.Thisisincontrasttothenearly10GWthatwasintheworksjusttwoyearsprior.Throughout2022,variousstakeholdersinJapanrang-ingfromenvironmentalgroupstoshareholderscalledforcompaniesinthepowersectortotakegreaterresponsibilityforhelpingJapanmeetitscommitmentsundertheParisclimateagreementandfulfillits2021pledgetoslashgreenhousegasemissionsby46-50%by2030.Maintainingthefourthlargestoperationalcoalcapacityintheworld,thesecompaniescoulddeterminethefateofJapan’strajectorytowardsafossilfuelsphase-down.Manycoalplantsareownedbycompaniesthatproposedsustainabilityagendasin2022,butlackbindingcommitmentsforemissionsreductiontargets.Strategiestoco-firesomeplantswithalternatefuelsinJapanmayreduceemissionsfromcoal-firedpowerstationsintheshortrunwhileincreasingnetemis-sionsinthelongrun,especiallyiftheuseofalternatefuelsgivescoalplantoperatorsanexcusetodelayretirements.Atleast9.8GWacrossover30powerstationsco-firesatsomeratiowithbiomass.Thegov-ernmentalsopromotedammonia/hydrogenco-firingandcarboncaptureandstorageinso-called“GreenTransformation”(GX)policydocuments.Inordertoencourageco-firing,theJapanesegovernmentisnotquestioningtheembeddedemissionsorproductionmethodsofammoniaandhydrogen,andthereiscur-rentlynoprospectforthesupplyof“green”ammonianeededtoachievethe20%co-firingtarget.Thesestrategieslacksignificantpotentialtonegatethecarbonemissionsthatwouldbeeliminatedaltogetherbyretiringcoalfacilitiesinfavorofrenewableenergydevelopment.Justninecoal-firedunitsinJapanhaveaknownplannedretirementyear.Thisisequivalenttolessthan5%ofoperationalcapacityandsignalsthatmanypowerstationsaretargetingoperationbeyondBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202337GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEalignmentwithcountry-levelclimatecommitments.Announcedretirements,suchasofChugokuElectricPower’sMizushimaplant,arefocusedontheoldestandleastefficientprojects.Thoseinthenewestvintagegroup,includingover6GWofultra-supercriticalcapac-itybuiltinthelastnineyears,arenotlikelytoreceiveaplannedretirementtargetwithoutanindustry-levelpolicyoverhaulorcountry-levelmandate.AUSTRALIAAfterafive-yearlullinwhichnoAustraliancoalplantswereretired,2022sawoperatorsbeginningtorushforthecoalexit,withmultipleplantsacceleratingtheirretirementplansamidstrisingpublicconcernabouttheclimatecrisis,thedefeatofstaunchlypro-coalPrimeMinisterScottMorrisonintheMayelection,andaspateofbadlegalandeconomicnewsforthecoalindustry.Thecountry’slargestcoalplant,Eraring,willnowberetiredin2025insteadof2032,andthecountry’sdirtiest,LoyYangA,willberetiredin2035,adecadeearlierthanplanned.TheLiddelplantretired0.5GWofcapacity2022andplanstoretireitsremaining1.5GWinApril2023.Operatingcoalplantscontinuedtolosemoney,withEnergyAustralia’scoalportfoliolosingAU$1billionin2023.AustraliahasthemostproposedcoalmineprojectsofanyOECDcountry,butinrecentmonths,thosedevelopmentshavefacedaseriesoflegalchallengesandsetbacks.InNovember2022,theQueenslandLandCourtrecommendedthatthemassiveGalileeCoalProjectbecancelledonthegroundsthatburn-ingcoalfromtheminewouldcontributetofurtherclimatechangethatlimitsthehumanrightsofpeopleinQueensland,includingtheculturalrightsofFirstNations.Thiswasaremarkabledecisiongiventhatmuchofthecoalwouldhavebeenburnedoverseas,andthecourtfoundthistobeasseriousahumanrightsissueascoalburneddomestically.InFebruary2023,WaratahCoaldroppeditsappealofthisdecision,andtheGalileeproject,likeotherproposedprojectsinthearea,appearstohavenowayforward.Thesamemonth,theenvironmentministerrejectedtheCentralQueenslandCoalProjectonthegroundsthatitwouldharmtheGreatBarrierReef.WhilenewPrimeMinisterAnthonyAlbaneseisaccel-eratingplanstotransitionthecountrytorenewables,hedidcontinuehispredecessor’ssupportforAustra-liancoalexports,claimingthatreducingexportswouldactuallyincreaseglobalwarmingbecauseimporterswouldswitchtocoalofinferior“quality”toAustralia’s.Environmentalistsdismissedthisnotionasamyth.NORTHERNAFRICAANDTHEMIDDLEEASTIn2022,therewerenonewcoal-firedpowerstationproposalsinNorthernAfricaandtheMiddleEast,anditispossiblethatthe650MWTabasplantunderconstructioninIranwillbetheregion’slastnewcoalplant.Capacityunderdevelopmenthasseenastagger-ingdecline,withnearly2.5GWcancelledintheUnitedArabEmirateslastyearalone.Ofthe8.6GWofoperatingcoalcapacityintheregion,overhalfisexpectedtoretireorendcoaluseby2026.Theunitsleftwithoutknownplannedretirementyears,alllocatedinMorocco,arenotlikelytobephased-outintheshortterm.Inaddition,thecountry’slargeJorfLasfarpowerstationhasanextendedpowersupplyagreementthrough2044.Plannedcoalexitsdidnotalwaysplayoutexactlyasexpected,asisoftenthecaseacrosstheworld.Theretirementofcoal-firedpowerstationssuchastheOrotRabinplantinIsrael,forexample,wasslatedfor2022.Becauseofmarketdisruptions,operationoftheseunitsappearsextendedforanotheryearormore.Thefour-unitRutenbergplantalsosawitsplanned2022retirementdelayedatthreeunits,thistimebylitigationsurroundingthereplacementgasproject.BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202338GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEManycountriesinNorthernAfricaandtheMiddleEasthaveseparate“conditional”and“unconditional”nationalclimatecommitments.The“conditional”com-mitmentsaremuchstronger:forexample,Moroccohaspledgedtoreduceemissionsby18.3%by2030or45.5%ifgiveninternationalsupport.Omanhaspledgedtoreduceemissionsby4%by2030or7%ifgiveninternationalsupport.Anexpeditedenergytran-sitionintheregion,awayfrombothcoalandgas,couldbesupportedbyglobalclimatefinancemechanismssuchasgrantsandconcessionalinvestments.SUB-SAHARANAFRICAVanishingfinancingfornewcoalprojects—especiallyChina’sannouncedexitfromcoalfinanceinothercountries—isslowingbutnotstoppingtheprojectsunderdevelopmentinsub-SaharanAfrica.Legalvictoriesagainstcoaldevelopmentandstrongpublicoppositionhavealsocontributedtoprojectdelays.But,withnearly50GWofoperationalcapacityandanadditional10GWunderdevelopment,sub-SaharanAfricaisatacrossroadsindetermininghowenergysecuritywillbeachievedinthecomingyears.In2021,coal’sfateintheregionwasinseriousjeop-ardyafterbillionsofUSdollarsininternationalclimatefinancewaspledgedandaseriesofcom-pany-levelcoaldisposalswereannounced.Yet,itwasclearin2022thatthescalehadnotyettippedCASESTUDY:COALINSOUTHAFRICAKEEPSPOCKETSHEAVYFORAFEWANDLIGHTSOFFFORMANYSouthAfricansfacedaremarkable205daysofrollingblackoutsin2022.AconstantstreamofunitbreakdownsatEskom’sagingcoal-firedpowerstationswascompoundedbydozensofincidentsoftheftandothercontroversies.Theutility’sCEOsurvivedanattemptedassassinationinJanuary2023andhassincebeenoustedfromhispositionforclaimingthatEskomwaslosingaround1billionrand(US$55million)everymonthasa“feedingtrough”ofmoneysiphoningfortheAfricanNationalCongress(ANC).Literalfuelsiphoningisalsoamajorconcern.ArrestsweremadeinrelationtomillionsofrandsworthoffuelstolenfromtheKrielplant.Eyewitnessaccountsreportedover50peoplestealingcoppercablesfromtheMajubaplantrailproject.2022alsosawthearrestoftwothievingtruckdriverseachattheMatlaandKendalplants.OtherconcerningdevelopmentsatEskompowerstationscontinuedin2022.RocksweredeliveredtotheMajubaplantinsteadofcoal,whichwerejusttherightsizetopassthroughsteelfilters.AttheCamdenplant,anincorrectvalvewasopened,contaminatingasteamturbine’swatersupplyandtemporarilytakingtheentire1.6GWpowerstationoffline;onemonthlater,apulledplugallowedoiltofullydrainanddamageabearing.Awarmingvalvecablewascut“justoutsidethesight”ofthefacility’scamerasattheTutukaplant,wherethePresidentofSouthAfricacalledmaliciousactivitiesan“enormous”challenge.CableswerealsocutattheMatlaplantandHendrinaplant.AformerEskomchiefexecutivewasaccusedofinsidertradingwhenitwasdiscoveredthathisstepdaughternettedaprofitof20millionrand(US$1.1million)bybecomingashareholderinacontractoroftheKusileplant.Theywerearrestedoncorruptionchargesbutmaintaintheirinnocence.InJanuary2023,fifteenyearoldinternalemailsrevealedthatafterinvestingjust1.2millionrand(US$65,000)intoKusile,theANC’sinvestmentarm,ChancellorHouse,received97millionrand(US$5.2million)in“successfees”(an8,000%returnoninvestment).Onemonthlater,theNorthGautengHighCourtinPretoriafrozeassets,includingluxurycarsandproperties,allegedlypurchasedthroughacorrupttenderatthesamesite.Criminalinvestigationsoverallegedcorruptionarealsounderwayatseveralotherpowerstations,includingtheTutukaplant.GroundWork’s2022reportContestedTransitionwarnsthat“corporateSouthAfricalooksforajusttransitiontobailitoutofdirty,deadendbusinessesandfixcapitalinbrightnew‘green’megaprojects,butwithoutdisturbingtheunderlyinglogicofthesystem.”Itprovidesanessentialreminderthatcommunitieswanttoseeajusttransitionforall,onethatupendsunequalrelationsofpowertotransformthelivesofordinarypeopleandmakeforasocietyfoundedonjustice.BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202339GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEinfavorofalternativeenergysources;non-bindingagreementswerewalkedbackandpoliticalandeco-nomicinterestshelpedeventheleastlogicalprojectsstayalive.AftertoutingtheprofitabilityoftheMedupiplantforyears,theAfricanDevelopmentBankconcededinJune2022thattheprojectwouldneverturnaprofit.TheMusina-Makhadoplant,whichwasexpectedtobereplacedbysolarplansasoflate2022,appearedtoberevivedintheeponymousSpecialEconomicZone.Communityandenvironmentalgroupshighlightedthatnearbycoalmineswereslatedtoresumeopera-tionsinearly2023.ThesamewastrueofBeifaInvest-ments’broadlyunpopularproposedplant,whichwasalsoconnectedtoanearbymineproject.UnlikeNorthernAfricaandtheMiddleEast,newcoal-firedpowerstationproposalscontinuedin2022aswell.InSouthAfrica,thedisastrousload-sheddingcrisiscausedbystate-ownedutilityEskomcontinuedtoescalatein2022,withStage6load-sheddingintro-duced(equivalenttoeighthoursofpowercutsina24-hourperiod)andthegovernmentconsideringthedeclarationofanationalstateofdisaster.Eskomhasloosenedrequirementsforcompaniesandmunicipal-itieslookingtocommissionnewprojects,andinearly2023thegovernmentsoughttofast-tracknewenergyinfrastructuredevelopmentbecauseoftheurgentneedforreliablegridcapacity.Theseplansincludepotentiallyeasingenvironmentalassessmentsandotheradministrativeandlegalrequirements,whichcouldultimatelyencouragecoalproposalstokeeppushingforward.Seetheboxbelowformoreinforma-tiononSouthAfrica’senergycrisis.OutsideofSouthAfrica,therearenearly50coal-firedunitsunderdevelopmentintheregion.SeventeenoftheseareinZimbabwe,whichisthemostofanycountryinAfricaandthefifthmostglobally.However,theoperationalcapacityinZimbabwehasremainedalmostunchangedin30years.Projectsarenotbeingcancelledatasufficientrate,particularlyaspublicpressurecontinuestohighlightenvironmentalandpublichealthconcernsovercoalprojectsunderdevel-opment.Forexample,thecompanyRioZimbabweLimited(RioZim)hasbeenattemptingtofinancethe2.8GWSengwaplantforadecade,which“remainsalivedespitethechallenges.”Hopefulsignsfortheregionincludethe2022can-cellationsoftheLamuplantinKenyaandtheMbeyaCoaltoPowerProjectinTanzania,andtheSechabaplantinBotswanaappearstohavestalledoutaswell.WhenEskom’sKomatiplantretiredinOctober2022,itbecameaflagshipjustenergytransitioninitiative.Whilearushtowardsnewgaspowerinfrastructurehasgenerallyfollowed,theUS$8.5billionininterna-tionalclimatefinancesecuredbySouthAfricaattheendof2021cansupportbothpowersectordecarbon-izationandeconomicdiversification.Ifreplicatedelsewhere,agingcoalinfrastructurehasgreatpoten-tialtobedecommissionedandrepurposedasasignif-icanttoolforanequitablerenewableenergytransitioninsub-SaharanAfrica.LATINAMERICANewcoalplantdevelopmentinLatinAmericahasslowedtoatrickleinrecentyears,leavingonlyBrazilwithpre-constructioncoalcapacityandArgentinawithcoalcapacityunderconstruction.Bytheendof2022,theregiononlyhad1.8GWofcoalpowerinthepre-permit,permitted,orconstructionstages,an82%decreasefromthe10.1GWthatwasunderdevelop-mentin2015.ColombiaandMexicocontinuetooper-atetheirexistingcoalfleets,butgovernmentofficialsinbothcountrieshaveruledouttheconstructionofnewplants.Perucloseditslastoperatingcoalunitin2022,Panamaexpectstoshutteritsloneremainingplantin2023,andChilehasacceleratedthepaceofitsnationaldecarbonizationplanannouncedin2019.Afteradecadeofdelays,Argentina’sRíoTurbioplantbegansupplyingelectricitytothegridinNovem-ber2022,becomingLatinAmerica’sfirstnewlyBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202340GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEcommissionedcoalplantsince2019.OwnerYCRTisproceedingwithconstructionplansforUnit2in2023,eventhoughRíoTurbio’s120MWUnit1hasnotyetoperatedatfullcapacity.Brazil’s10-yearenergyexpansionplancallsfor1.4GWofnewcoalpowerby2031,andmanygovernmentofficialsinthecoal-producingstatesofSantaCatarinaandRioGrandedoSulcontinuetosupportnewcoaldevelopment.However,allthreeofBrazil’scurrentlyproposedcoalplantsremainstalled.The600MWOuroNegroplant,listedasthelonecoal-firedpartici-pantinBrazil’sOctober2022energyauctions,lostouttomorecompetitivehydro,solar,wind,andbiomassprojects.Brazil’smostmoderncoalplant,PampaSul,wassoldtonewowners,leavingthefutureofitsproposed340MWunit2inlimbo.Meanwhile,aseriesofjudicialdecisionshasindefinitelysuspendedthelicensingprocessforthe726MWNovaSeivalplant.InChile,threemorecoal-firedunits—Bocamina2,Tocopilla14,andTocopilla15—weredecommis-sionedin2022,inaccordancewiththenationaldecarbonizationplanannouncedbytheChileangovernmentin2019.Thenation’scoalfleetisstillontrackforcompletephaseoutby2040,withfivemoreunitsscheduledfordecommissioningorconversiontootherfuelsbetween2023and2025.However,somecompanieshavefailedtocommittofirmclosuredatesfortheircoal-firedunits,includingAES(eightunitsattheCochrane,Angamos,Norgener,andVentanasplants),CapitalAdvisors(fiveunitsatGuacolda),andColbún(oneunitatSantaMaría).InPeru,Engieclosedthecountry’sonlyoperatingcoal-firedunit,Ilo21,inDecember2022.Panama’slastcoal-firedpowerplant,the306MWCobrePanamáplant,willstopgeneratingpowerbytheendof2023,inaccordancewiththenationalcoalphaseoutpolicyannouncedinJune2021.CobrePanamáhassignedcontractstopurchaserenewableenergyfromAESstartinginJanuary2024,andwillconvertitsexistingcoal-firedunitstorunonamixofrenewablesandnaturalgasbetween2025and2030.Colombia’snewpresident,GustavoPetro,hassignaledaseachangeinLatinAmerica’slargestcoal-produc-ingnation.TheleftistPetroadministrationplanstograduallyreducecoalexportsandhasruledouttheconstructionofnewcoalplantsoropen-pitcoalmines,butwillcontinueoperationofthecountry’sfiveexistingcoalplants.Mexico’sthreecoal-firedpowerplantsincreasedelectricityproductionby63%in2022underthefossilfuel-friendlypoliciesofPresidentAndrésManuelLópezObrador.WhilethegovernmenthassofarstuckbyitsNovember2021pledgenottoexpandMexico’scoalfleet,itsgrowingfocusondomestichydrocarbonsproductionandgasimportsposesaseriousthreattoMexico’sstatedemissionstargets.AmongCaribbeannations,theDominicanRepublicstandsoutforitscontinuedrelianceoncoal.Coalrep-resents22%ofinstalledcapacityandaccountsforupto37%ofannualelectricitygeneration.Thenationalenergyplanfor2022–2026callsforsteadyuseofcoalatcurrentlevelsforthenextdecadeandahalf,thoughcoal’sshareoftheelectricitymatrixisforecasttoshrinkasrenewablesandgas-firedplantsarebroughtonlinetomeetgrowingdemand.The752MWPuntaCatalinaplanthasbeencontroversialsinceitscom-missioningin2019,withenvironmentalistscallingforitsshutdownorconversiontomeetEuropeanenvi-ronmentalstandards,evenasthegovernmenttoutsitsreliabilityandsupportsitsongoingoperation.BOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202341GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLEAPPENDIXCoalPowerCapacityinDevelopmentandOperatingbyCountry(megawatts)CountryPre-constructionConstructionAllActiveDevelopmentShelvedOperatingCancelled2010–2022Albania00000800Argentina012012004950Australia1,00001,0004,72023,9778,716Austria00000800Bangladesh6,7005,72412,4241,6702,85528,805Belarus000001,400Belgium000001,100BosniaandHerzegovina1,35001,3501,6802,0732,170Botswana45004502,5507324,950Brazil1,66601,66603,1774,990Brunei00002200Bulgaria00004,7092,660Cambodia7003151,01501,4054,880Canada00004,7071,500Chile00004,3239,527China250,069115,472365,54135,1921,092,889599,120Colombia0001,5851,6461,250Côted’Ivoire00000700Croatia00002101,300CzechRepublic00007,4451,380Denmark00001,5600Djibouti00015000DominicanRepublic00001,0642,040DRCongo00050000Egypt0000015,240ElSalvador00000370Eswatini300030050001,600Ethiopia0009000Finland00001,468385France00002,507180Georgia00000300Germany000040,50520,413Ghana000002,100Greece066066002,2251,250Guadeloupe0000640ContinuedonnextpageBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202342GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLECoalPowerCapacityinDevelopmentandOperatingbyCountry(megawatts)—continuedCountryPre-constructionConstructionAllActiveDevelopmentShelvedOperatingCancelled2010–2022Guatemala00001,172300Guinea00000330Honduras00001050HongKong00006,1100Hungary00009443,520India28,50332,00060,50320,710234,256584,841Indonesia7,48018,84926,3298,17040,64741,710Iran0650650000Ireland00009150Israel00004,3251,260Italy00006,1666,795Jamaica000001,140Japan5002,4502,950052,97812,177Kazakhstan7566582113013,0332,260Kenya6406496001,716Kosovo00001,290830Kyrgyzstan600060008260Laos7,03607,0363001,8780Latvia00000435Madagascar3003001200Malawi400040012003,100Malaysia000013,2804,900Mauritius0000195110Mexico0001,4005,3781,850Moldova000000Mongolia7,030507,0802509603,160Montenegro00002251,664Morocco00004,2571,670Mozambique1,20001,2001,05003,770Myanmar000019021,225Namibia0000120550Netherlands00004,1521,311NewZealand00005000Niger200020000500Nigeria00002854,545NorthKorea00003,250300ContinuedonnextpageBOOMANDBUSTCOAL2023REPORTAPRIL202343GLOBALENERGYMONITOR,CREA,E3G,RECLAIMFINANCE,SIERRACLUB,SFOC,KIKONETWORK,CANEUROPE,BANGLADESHGROUPS,ACJCE,CHILESUSTENTABLECoalPowerCapacityinDevelopmentandOperatingbyCountry(megawatts)—continuedCountryPre-constructionConstructionAllActiveDevelopmentShelvedOperatingCancelled2010–2022NorthMacedonia0000800730Oman0001,20000Pakistan4,0107324,7421637,63824,040Panama00003060PapuaNewGuinea0005200Peru00000135Philippines1,6207352,3555,12011,89312,660Poland010010050029,13022,383Portugal000000Romania00002,9555,705Russia3,173703,2431,22639,92511,495Senegal0000155850Serbia1,3503501,70004,4051,445Slovakia0000769885Slovenia00001,0690SouthAfrica1,6351,6003,235043,62415,650SouthKorea03,1403,140039,1547,500Spain00002,210800SriLanka0002,4009003,500Sudan00000600Sweden000000Syria000000Taiwan000019,24414,000Tajikistan0000400650Tanzania600060039001,375Thailand60006002,0006,1388,726Türkiye10,43814510,58340520,09387,853Ukraine660066009,3202,060UnitedArabEmirates000005,470UnitedKingdom00004,1409,968UnitedStates000300212,04228,168Uzbekistan600060002,493300Venezuela000002,800Vietnam1,2106,1207,33018,86024,63747,315Zambia300030003301,940Zimbabwe4,5709405,5109501,0007,240Total346,800190,287537,087115,2932,082,5811,752,137

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