实现1.5 °C 目标的可靠途径(英文版)--IEAVIP专享VIP免费

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Credible

Pathways to 1.5 °C

Four pillars for action

in the 2020s

The IEA examines the

full spectrum

of energy issues

including oil, gas and

coal supply and

demand, renewable

energy technologies,

electricity markets,

energy efficiency,

access to energy,

demand side

management and

much more. Through

its work, the IEA

advocates policies

that will enhance the

reliability, affordability

and sustainability of

energy in its

31 member countries,

11 association

countries and

beyond.

Please note that this

publication is subject to

specific restrictions that limit

its use and distribution. The

terms and conditions are

available online at

www.iea.org/t&c/

This publication and any

map included herein are

without prejudice to the

status of or sovereignty over

any territory, to the

delimitation of international

frontiers and boundaries and

to the name of any territory,

city or area.

Source: IEA.

International Energy Agency

Website: www.iea.org

IEA member

countries:

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

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Slovak Republic

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United Kingdom

United States

The European

Commission also

participates in the

work of the IEA

IEA association

countries:

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY

AGENCY

Argentina

Brazil

China

Egypt

India

Indonesia

Morocco

Singapore

South Africa

Thailand

Ukraine



Credible pathways to 1.5 C 3

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Credible pathways to 1.5 °C

Four pillars for action in the 2020s

 GlobalenergyrelatedCO2emissionsrose0.9%in2022,reachinganall‐timehighof

36.8billiontonnes(Gt).Land‐userelatedCO2emissionsremainedataround6Gtin

2022,whileenergyrelatedmethaneemissionsrosein2022butremainedbelowthe

recordlevelsof2019.Thewindowtoacrediblepathwaytowardslimitingwarmingto

1.5°Cin2100isthereforerapidlyclosing.

 Decliningcostsforcleanenergytechnologiesandnewpolicieshaveshavedaround

1°Cfromprojected2100warmingcomparedtothepre‐Parisbaseline.Theambitions

thatcountrieshaveputonthetablegoasignificantwaytomeetingthe1.5°Cgoal.If

implementedontimeandinfull,countries’netzeropledgeswouldbesufficientto

holdwarmingtoaround1.7°Cin2100.Thekeyquestionisthereforewhatneedsto

bedonenowtostrengthennear‐termactiontoputtheworldonacrediblepathway

consistentwiththe1.5°Cgoal.Fourpillarsarekey:

 Intheenergysector,decarbonisingelectricity,acceleratingenergyefficiencyand

electrificationarethecriticaltools.Capacityadditionsofrenewablesneedtotriple

from2022levelsby2030,reachingaround1200GWannually,representingon

average90%ofnewgenerationcapacityeachyear.Electriccarsalesshouldreacha

marketshareofaround60%by2030,whilezeroemissionsmediumandheavyfreight

trucksshouldreachamarketshareofaround35%bythesameyear.

 Reducingdeforestationtonetzeroby2030–inlinewithTheGlasgowLeaders’

DeclarationonForestsandLandUse–providesthelargestshareofCO2emissions

reductionsfromtheland‐usesector.

 Tacklingnon‐CO2emissionsisvitaltolimitingpeakwarming.Assumingstrongaction

onCO2,meetingorexceedingcommitmentsliketheKigaliAmendmentonHFCsand

theGlobalMethanePledge,andactingonnon‐CO2emissionsfromagriculture,could

makethedifferencebetweenascenariowhichsubstantiallyovershoots1.5°C,risking

triggeringirreversibleclimatetippingpoints,andonewhichdoesnot.

 Eveninalowovershootscenario,carboncaptureandstorageandatmospheric

carbondioxideremovalwillberequiredtomitigateandcompensatehard‐to‐abate

residualemissions.Projectscapturingaround1.2GtCO2by2030needtobe

implemented,againsttheroughly0.3GtCO2currentlyplannedfor2030.

 Acrediblepathwaytothe1.5°Cgoalneedsstrong,immediateactiononeachofthese

fourpillars,todeliverimmediateandrapidemissionsreductions;strongcontributions

fromallcountries,especiallyadvancedandmajoreconomies;andclearpolicysignals

toenableactorstoanticipateandachievechange.

SUMMARY

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CrediblePathwaysto1.5°CFourpillarsforactioninthe2020sTheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,11associationcountriesandbeyond.Pleasenotethatthispublicationissubjecttospecificrestrictionsthatlimititsuseanddistribution.Thetermsandconditionsareavailableonlineatwww.iea.org/t&c/Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Source:IEA.InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.orgIEAmembercountries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesTheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEAIEAassociationcountries:INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandUkraineCrediblepathwaysto1.5C3IEA.CCBY4.0.Crediblepathwaysto1.5°CFourpillarsforactioninthe2020sGlobalenergyrelatedCO2emissionsrose0.9%in2022,reachinganall‐timehighof36.8billiontonnes(Gt).Land‐userelatedCO2emissionsremainedataround6Gtin2022,whileenergyrelatedmethaneemissionsrosein2022butremainedbelowtherecordlevelsof2019.Thewindowtoacrediblepathwaytowardslimitingwarmingto1.5°Cin2100isthereforerapidlyclosing.Decliningcostsforcleanenergytechnologiesandnewpolicieshaveshavedaround1°Cfromprojected2100warmingcomparedtothepre‐Parisbaseline.Theambitionsthatcountrieshaveputonthetablegoasignificantwaytomeetingthe1.5°Cgoal.Ifimplementedontimeandinfull,countries’netzeropledgeswouldbesufficienttoholdwarmingtoaround1.7°Cin2100.Thekeyquestionisthereforewhatneedstobedonenowtostrengthennear‐termactiontoputtheworldonacrediblepathwayconsistentwiththe1.5°Cgoal.Fourpillarsarekey:Intheenergysector,decarbonisingelectricity,acceleratingenergyefficiencyandelectrificationarethecriticaltools.Capacityadditionsofrenewablesneedtotriplefrom2022levelsby2030,reachingaround1200GWannually,representingonaverage90%ofnewgenerationcapacityeachyear.Electriccarsalesshouldreachamarketshareofaround60%by2030,whilezeroemissionsmediumandheavyfreighttrucksshouldreachamarketshareofaround35%bythesameyear.Reducingdeforestationtonetzeroby2030–inlinewithTheGlasgowLeaders’DeclarationonForestsandLandUse–providesthelargestshareofCO2emissionsreductionsfromtheland‐usesector.Tacklingnon‐CO2emissionsisvitaltolimitingpeakwarming.AssumingstrongactiononCO2,meetingorexceedingcommitmentsliketheKigaliAmendmentonHFCsandtheGlobalMethanePledge,andactingonnon‐CO2emissionsfromagriculture,couldmakethedifferencebetweenascenariowhichsubstantiallyovershoots1.5°C,riskingtriggeringirreversibleclimatetippingpoints,andonewhichdoesnot.Eveninalowovershootscenario,carboncaptureandstorageandatmosphericcarbondioxideremovalwillberequiredtomitigateandcompensatehard‐to‐abateresidualemissions.Projectscapturingaround1.2GtCO2by2030needtobeimplemented,againsttheroughly0.3GtCO2currentlyplannedfor2030.Acrediblepathwaytothe1.5°Cgoalneedsstrong,immediateactiononeachofthesefourpillars,todeliverimmediateandrapidemissionsreductions;strongcontributionsfromallcountries,especiallyadvancedandmajoreconomies;andclearpolicysignalstoenableactorstoanticipateandachievechange.SUMMARY4InternationalEnergyAgencyIEA.CCBY4.0.IntroductionGlobalenergy‐relatedCO2emissionsrose0.9%in2022,reachinganewall‐timehighof36.8Gt(IEA,2022a).1Land‐userelatedCO2emissionsremainedataround6Gtin2022.Atthesametime,recordhighfossilenergyandelectricitypricesinmanymarketsandnewpoliciespushedenergyefficiencyandcleanenergytechnologyinvestmentstonewheights.SolarPVandwindgenerationeachincreasedbyaround275TWh,anewannualrecord.Takentogether,renewablescoveredmorethan90%ofelectricitydemandgrowthin2022.Electriccarsalsosurged,reaching14%ofglobalsales,upfrom4%in2020.Despitethecontinuedgrowthofemissionsin2022,countrieshaveincreasedtheirambitionsonclimatechange.AccordingtoanalysisbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),ifcountriesimplementinfullandontimetheirnationallydeterminedcontributions(NDCs)andnetzeropledges,aswellassectoralpledgessuchastheGlobalMethanePledgeandtheGlasgowLeaders’DeclarationonForestsandLandUse,theworldwouldbeonapathwaytolimitingwarmingtoaround1.7°Cby2100(IEA,2022b).Thisissubstantiallybetterthanthetrajectoryimpliedbycurrentpolicysettings,whichwouldseewarmingofabout2.5°Cin2100.However,itwouldstillnotlimitwarmingto1.5°C.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)hashighlightedthesignificantrisksofwarmingabove1.5°C(IPCC,2018;IPCC,2021a;IPCC,2022).Thegoalofthispaperistohighlightthecriticalareaswhereacceleratedactioninthecurrentdecadecanpreserveareasonablechanceoflimitingglobaltemperaturerise2to1.5°Cby2100,structuredaroundfourkeypillars:Achievingthesubstantialnear‐termemissionsreductionsfromtheenergysectornecessarytoputitonapathwaytoreachnetzeroCO2emissionsbymid‐century;Reducingdeforestationtonetzeroby2030andtakingadditionalmitigationactionsintheland‐usesector;Cuttingnon‐CO2greenhousegases(GHGs),especiallymethane,andothershort‐livedclimatepollutants,whichhaveanoutsizedimpactonloweringpeakwarming;Scalinguptheinnovationanddeploymentofcarbonmanagementtechnologies.Strongandcoordinatedactiononthesefourpillarscanputtheworldonacrediblepathwaytolimitingwarmingto1.5°C.Acrediblepathwayshouldbebuiltaround:ImmediateandsteepreductionsinGHGemissions,inorderminimisethemagnitudeanddurationofatemperatureovershootabove1.5°C.Thisreducestherisksassociated1Inthispaper,energyrelatedCO2emissionsreferstoemissionsfromfossilfuelcombustionandindustrialprocesses.2Unlessotherwisestated,temperatureriseestimatesquotedrefertothemediantemperaturerise,meaningthatthereisa50%probabilityofremainingbelowagiventemperaturerise.Changesintemperaturesarerelativeto1850‐1900andmatchtheIPCC6thAssessmentReportdefinitionofwarmingof0.85°Cbetween1995‐2014.Crediblepathwaysto1.5C5IEA.CCBY4.0.with:physicalhazardsandeconomiccostsofwarming;irreversibleclimatetippingpoints;andtheavailabilityandsocio‐economictrade‐offsoftechnologiestoremoveCO2fromtheatmosphere.Asmoothtransitionachievedthroughstrongandco‐ordinatedpoliciesandincentivesthatenableallactorstoanticipateandparticipateintherapidchangerequired.Contributionsfromallcountries,especiallyadvancedandmajoreconomies,andinternationalcollaborationtolowercostsandsupportemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesinundertakingthetransition.Box1⊳IEAscenariosintheWorldEnergyOutlook2022ThispaperusesthefollowingIEAscenarios3:NetZeroEmissionsby2050(NZE)Scenario:Thisnormativescenariosetsoutapathwaytothestabilisationofglobalaveragetemperaturesbelow1.5°Cabovepre‐industriallevelsby2100,andavoidshighovershootofthe1.5°Cthresholdbylimitingpeakwarmingtobelow1.6°C.ThisscenarioreachesnetzeroCO2emissionsfromtheenergysectorby2050,withoutoffsetsfromoutsidetheenergysector,aswellassteepcutsinCO2fromAFOLUandinotherGHGs.AnnouncedPledgesScenario(APS):Thisscenarioassumesthatgovernmentswillmeet,infullandontime,alloftheclimate‐relatedcommitments,goals,andtargetsthattheyhaveannounced,includinglonger‐termnetzeroemissionspledgesandNDCtargets.Pledgesmadeininternationalforaandinitiativesonthepartofbusinessesandothernon‐governmentalorganisationsarealsotakenintoaccount.Inthisscenario,thetemperatureincreasereachesaround1.7°Cby2100.StatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS):Thisscenarioisbasedonadetailedsector‐by‐sectorreviewofthepoliciesandmeasuresthatareactuallyinplaceorunderdevelopment.Inthisscenario,temperatureswouldreach2.5°Cby2100andcontinuetorisethereafter.Figure1showstheenergysectorCO2emissionsandtemperatureoutcomesofthethreescenarios.TheIEAwillupdatethesescenariosaspartofitsWorldEnergyOutlook2023,andwillplaceaparticularfocusontheupdatedNZEScenarioinaSpecialReportonClimateChangetobepublishedinthesecondhalfof2023.3ThesescenariosarethesameasthoseincludedintheIEA’sWorldEnergyOutlook.(IEA,2022b))6InternationalEnergyAgencyIEA.CCBY4.0.Figure1⊳EnergysectorCO2emissionsbyscenario,2010–2050,andtemperaturerisebyscenario,2100IEA.CCBY4.0.Ifimplementedfully,netzeropledgesseewarmingof1.7°Cin2100,animprovementcomparedtothetrajectoryofcurrentpolicies,butstillnotinlinewiththe1.5°ClimitPillar1:netzeroCO2emissionsfromenergyby2050Thereisnocrediblepathwaytolimitingwarmingto1.5°CwithoutsteepandimmediatereductionsinenergyrelatedCO2emissions.Thelow‐overshoot1.5°CscenariosassessedbytheIPCCreachnetzeroCO2emissionsfromtheenergysectorbyaroundmid‐century(Byersetal.,2022).Achievingthispathwayrequiresrapidandprofoundtransformationoftheglobalenergysector,structuredaroundfourtypesofkeyactions(Figure2):Scalingupthedeploymentofcleanelectricity.Anotherrecordyearforrenewableswasachievedin2022,withrenewablesmeeting90%ofelectricitygenerationgrowth.SolarPVandwindgenerationeachincreasedbyaround275TWh,anewannualrecord.Scalingupthedeploymentofcleanelectricity‐includingrenewables,nuclearpower,fossilfuelpowerplantswithcarboncapture,storageanduse(CCUS),andplantsfiringhydrogenandammonia‐isoneofthemostcriticalactionsneededtoreduceemissionsinlinewithacredible1.5°Cpathway(Figure2).Annualcapacityadditionsofrenewablesneedtoquadruplefromhistoricallevels(orroughlytriplefromlevelsachievedin2022)andreach1200GWannuallyby2030,representingonaveragemorethan90%ofnewgenerationcapacityeachyear.Fuelswitchingtoelectricityandlow‐emissionsfuelssuchassustainablebioenergy,hydrogenandhydrogen‐basedfuelsenabledeepemissionscutsinindustry,transportandbuildings.In2022,electricvehiclesreached14%ofglobalcarsales.Spurredonby1020304020102020203020402050GtCO₂EnergysectorCO₂emissionsSTEPSAPSNZE123456NZEAPSSTEPS5th‐95thpercentile33rd‐67thpercentileMedian°CTemperaturerisein2100Crediblepathwaysto1.5C7IEA.CCBY4.0.highnaturalgaspricesandgovernmentincentives,heatpumpsaleswereverystrongin2022,withglobalsalesincreasing11%from2021levelsandsalesintheEUalonerisingalmost40%(IEA,2023a).Figure2⊳ReductioninenergyrelatedCO2emissionsbybroadcategoryofmeasure,2035IEA.CCBY4.0.ReachingNZElevelsofemissionsreductionsrequiresstrongactionacrossalllevers,butcleanelectricityandelectrificationprovidethelargestabsolutereductionsto2035Note:ToreachcurrentpledgesreferstothereductioninemissionsfromSTEPStoAPS.ToreachNZEreferstoreductioninemissionsfromAPStotheNZEScenario.Otherincludesenergysupplymeasuresandotherfuelswitches.By2030,theshareofelectriccarsinglobalannualcarsalesneedstoreacharound60%tobeinlinewiththeNZEScenario,enablingsignificantemissionsreductionsasthestockofvehiclesprogressivelybecomesdominatedbyEVs,intandemwiththedeploymentofcleanelectricity.Similarly,theshareofzero‐emissionmediumandheavyfreighttrucksinglobalsalesshouldreacharound35%by2030.Inthebuildingssector,theshareofelectricityinresidentialandcommercialbuildingsdemandgrowsalmostfifteenpercentagepointsto2030intheNZEScenario,drivenbytheelectrificationofend‐usesthroughtechnologiessuchasheat‐pumps.Globalproductionoflow‐emissionshydrogenhastogrowexponentially,reachingaround90milliontons(Mt)by2030,enablingemissionsreductionsinindustryandheavy‐dutytransportapplications.Thedeploymentofsuchlow‐emissionsfuelsenablesreductionstostartinsectorssuchasshipping,whichseesCO2emissionsdecreasefrom0.8Gtin2021to0.7Gtin2030intheNZEScenario,astheshareoffossilfuelsinthesector’sconsumptionfallsfromessentially100%in2021toaround80%in2030.‐8‐6‐4‐2ToreachNZEToreachannouncedpledgesCleanelectricityFuelswitchingEnergyproductivityCarbonmanagementOtherElectrificationCleanfuelsAvoideddemandEnergyefficiencyGtCO28InternationalEnergyAgencyIEA.CCBY4.0.Improvingenergyproductivity,ortheratioofeconomicoutputtoenergyinput,iscriticaltoreducingtherequiredscale‐upoflow‐emissionsenergysources.In2022,globalenergyproductivityimprovedby2%,asignificantaccelerationfromthelevelsseenin2020and2021.However,intheNZEScenario,theannualrateofenergyproductivityimprovementnearlytriplesto2030comparedtoaveragehistoricalrates,reachinganannualrateofgreaterthan4%peryearby2030.Withoutthisimprovementinenergyproductivity,thesizeoftheglobalenergysystemwouldbe20%largerin2030–equivalenttoaddingtheenergyconsumptionofChinatoday.CarbonmanagementviaCCUSisacriticalfortheenergysectortoreachnetzeroemissionsby2050.In2022,around44milliontons(Mt)ofCO2werecapturedglobally.Tobeinlinewithnetzeroemissionsby2050,globalCO2captureintheenergysectorneedstoincreaseto1.2Gtby2030.CCUSplaysthreeimportantroles:providingasolutionforhard‐to‐abatesectorssuchascementprocessemissions;contributingtotheproductionoflow‐emissionsfuelsincludingsyntheticfuels;andremovingcarbonfromtheatmosphere(seePillar4dedicatedtothistopic).ToachievenetzeroCO2emissionsbymid‐century,countriesneedtostrengthenbothpolicyimplementationandambition.IfpolicieswerestrengthenedsufficientlytoputallcountriesonapathtoreachingtheirNDCsandnetzeropledges,energysectorCO2emissionswouldstarttodeclinedecisivelyinthisdecadeandwouldendthedecadeat31.5Gt,comparedto36Gtinascenarioundertoday’spolicysettings.Tolimitthetemperaturerisetobelow1.5°Cin2100wouldrequiresteeperreductionsinthenearterm.By2030,energyrelatedCO2emissionsinthemedianlow‐overshoot1.5°CscenarioassessedbytheIPCCarearound22Gt;inhigh‐overshootscenariostheyarearound30Gt.Delayingtheenhancementofpolicyimplementationandambitionwouldlikelymakereachingnetzeroemissionsby2050infeasible.Thetransformationoftheglobalenergysectorneedstobeledaboveallbyahugescale‐upofinvestmentincleanenergytechnologies.IntheNZEScenario,globalinvestmentincleanenergytechnologydeploymentalmostquadruplesby2030,fromarecentannualaverageofUSD1.2trilliontoUSD4.2trillion.TheneededincreaseincleanenergyinvestmentismoststarkinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesoutsideChina,wherecleanenergyinvestmentneedstoincreasealmostseven‐foldby2030.Achievingthiswillrequireacombinationofscaled‐upinternationalpublicsupport,internationalprivatecapitalanddomesticinvestment,facilitatedbystrongerandmoreeffectivepolicies.Crediblepathwaysto1.5C9IEA.CCBY4.0.Pillar2:zeronetdeforestationby2030andotherlanduseactionsAgriculture,forestryandotherlanduse4(AFOLU)isresponsibleforaroundone‐fifthofglobalanthropogenicGHGemissions.Aroundone‐halfofAFOLU‐relatedGHGemissionsisfromCO2,one‐thirdfrommethane,andtheremainderfromnitrousoxide(N2O).Addressingtheseemissionsthereforeplaysanintegralroleinlimitingwarmingto1.5°C.Forexample,inlow‐overshoot1.5°CscenariosconsideredbytheIPCC,GHGemissionsfromAFOLUfallby30‐63%between2020and2030,withCO2emissionsreachingnet‐zeroaround2030.Inthesescenarios,thelandsectoralsoplaysakeyroleinoffsettingremainingGHGemissionsfromothersectors(e.g.,fromtheenergysector,industrialprocessesandwaste)byremovingonaveragearound2.6GtCO2peryearbetween2050–2100.AFOLUmethaneandN2OemissionsarediscussedinmoredetailininPillar3.Figure3⊳ReductioningreenhousegasemissionsfromAFOLUbymeasurein2030IEA.CCBY4.0.StoppingdeforestationhasthebiggestimpactinreducingGHGemissionstoalignwiththeNZEpathwayNote:Other=Afforestationandotherlandusechanges,includingshortrotationplantationsandreforestationofothernaturalland.AnalysiscarriedoutfortheIEAbytheInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA)indicatesthatGHGemissions5fromAFOLUwouldfallfromaround12GtCO2‐eqperyearin2021toaround10GtCO2‐eqby2030understatedpolicies.TheGlasgowLeaders’4Otherlandusereferstolandnotcoveredbythefollowingcategories:forestland,cropland,agriculture,grassland,andsettlements.5HereandsubsequentlyCO2‐eqvaluesarequotedbasedonGWP100.246810STEPSNZEGtCO2‐eqToreachannouncedpledgesToreachNZEReduceddeforestationOtherImprovedforestmanagementReducedagriculturalemissions10InternationalEnergyAgencyIEA.CCBY4.0.DeclarationonForestsandLandUseandotherannouncedpledgesrelatedtoAFOLUwouldreducenetGHGemissionsin2030byafurther2.4GtCO2‐eq.However,thisfallsshortofwhatwouldbeneededtoputtheworldona1.5°Cpathway.IntheIEA’sNZEScenario,GHGemissionsfromAFOLUin2030areabout2GtCO2‐eqlowerthanifallcurrentlyannouncedpledgesweretobemetinfullandontime.Alongsidestoppingdeforestation,themajorityoftheadditionalabatementmustcomefromimprovedmanagementofexistingforests,reductionofagriculturalnon‐CO2emissions(forexamplethroughimprovementsinentericfermentationandmanuremanagement),andmeasuresrelatedtootherlandusechangessuchastheestablishmentofforestplantations(Figure3).IntheNZEScenario,earlyactiononafforestationisalsocrucialforlong‐termemissionsreductionsafter2030.Forexample,around50millionhectares(equivalenttotwicethesizeoftheUnitedKingdom)ofadditionalforestsareplantedto2030,whichstartstopaysignificantdividendsintermsofCO2removalsonlyafter2050.Pillar3:mitigationofnon‐CO2emissionsInadditiontocuttingCO2,rapidreductionsinemissionsofotherGHGsarerequiredinallscenarioswhichlimitwarmingto1.5°C.Thesereductionsofnon‐CO2GHGs,particularlyofmethane,haveanoutsizedimpactonglobaltemperaturesintheshortterm,asmanyofthemareshort‐livedclimateforcers6withpowerfulwarmingpotentialsbutshortatmosphericlifetimes(IPCC,2021b).Cuttingtheseemissionsquicklycanlimitthedurationandmagnitudeofthetemperatureovershootabove1.5°C.Thetemperatureriseinrecentyearsstandsataround1.2°Cabovepre‐industriallevels.IntheSTEPSscenario,thetemperaturerisereachesaround1.9°Cby2050,whereasintheNZEscenario,itisjustover1.5°Cbythattime.About40%oftheadditionalwarminginSTEPSiscausedbynon‐CO2emissions,withmethaneaccountingforabout30%ofthewarming,nitrousoxide(N2O)foraround5%,andtheothergasesforaround5%(Figure4).Ouranalysis7suggeststhatwithoutthestrongmitigationofnon‐CO2GHGsintheNZEScenario,thepeaktemperaturerisewouldbearound0.2°Chigher.ThisissufficienttotaketheNZEScenariofromalow‐tohigh‐overshoot1.5°Cscenario(asdefinedbytheIPCC).Lackofactiononnon‐CO2GHGswouldalsoresultinthetemperaturerisesurpassing1.5°Cformuchlongerthanthe20‐yearovershootthathappensintheNZE—meaningthatCO2removalsafter2050wouldlikelyneedtobelargertoreturntobelow1.5°Cby2100.Thephysicalhazardsandconsequentialrisksassociatedwithglobalwarmingofthisdurationwouldposeseverethreatstosocieties,economiesandeco‐systems.Higherpeaktemperaturesoverlongerperiodsoftimealsoincreasethelikelihoodofinducingirreversible6Short‐livedclimateforcersincludemethane,nitrogenoxides,aerosolsandsomehalogenatedcompounds.Over10‐20years,theglobaltemperatureresponseresultingfromasingleyearofcurrentemissionsofshort‐livedclimateforcersisatleastaslargeasthatfromasingleyearofcurrentCO2emissions(IPCC,2021a).7Thisanalysisisbasedonafuturepathwayfornon‐CO2GHGemissionsasintheSTEPSScenario.Crediblepathwaysto1.5C11IEA.CCBY4.0.climatetippingpoints,suchasthecollapseoftheGreenlandandWestAntarcticicesheetsorwidespreadabruptpermafrostthaw.Figure4⊳ContributiontowarmingbyGHGinSTEPSvsNZE,2022–2050andtemperatureriseavoidedbymitigationofnon-CO2GHGs.IEA.CCBY4.0.CO2isresponsibleforjust60%ofthewarmingto2050;mitigationofnon-CO2GHGsisessentialtokeeppeaktemperaturesbelowthelowovershootthresholdof1.6°C.Note:Othergases=F‐gasesandMontrealProtocolGHGs.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonoutputsofMAGICC7.5.3.Methaneisresponsibleforaround30%oftheriseinglobaltemperaturessincetheIndustrialRevolution,andcuttingmethaneemissionsintheNZEScenariohasthesinglebiggestimpactafterCO2onlimitingthetemperatureriseto2050.OnehundredandfiftycountrieshavenowjoinedtheGlobalMethanePledge,whichwaslaunchedatCOP26in2021andaimstoreducemethaneemissionsfromhumanactivitybyatleast30%from2020levelsby2030.Theenergysectoraccountsforaround40%oftotalmethaneemissionsattributabletohumanactivity,secondonlytoagriculture.IntheNZEScenario,methaneemissionsfromtheenergysectorfallbyaround75%between2020and2030andtotalmethaneemissionsfromhumanactivityfallbyaround45%.TheIEA’slatestupdateofitsGlobalMethaneTrackerfoundthatmethaneemissionsfromoilandgasalonecouldbereducedby75%withexistingtechnologies.Around$100billionintotalinvestmentisneededovertheperiodto2030toachievethisreduction—equivalenttolessthan3%ofoilandgasnetincomein2022.Toaddressmethaneemissionsfromfossilenergyproductionandconsumption,countriescoveringoverhalfofglobalgasimportsandoverone‐thirdofglobalgasexportsreleasedaJointDeclarationfromEnergyImportersandExportersonReducingGreenhouseGasEmissionsfromFossilFuelsatCOP27callingforminimizingflaring,methane,andCO2emissionsacrossthesupplychaintothefullestextentpracticable.25%50%75%100%ContributiontowarmingCO2MethaneOthergasesN2O1.01.21.41.61.8°CPeaktemperatureriseThresholdforlowovershoot1.5°CscenariosNZEpeakAvoidedbynon‐CO2mitigation12InternationalEnergyAgencyIEA.CCBY4.0.Government‐ledactionshavealsobeenputforwardtotackleotherGHGs.Forexample,in2016,theKigaliAmendmenttotheMontrealProtocolcalledforaphase‐downofhydrofluorocarbon(HFC)productionandconsumptionby80‐85%,tobereachedinadvancedeconomiesby2036andinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesby2047totackletheclimateimpactsofHFCemissions.AsofMarch2023,partiesrepresentingover80%ofglobalGHGemissionshavejoinedtheamendment.TherearesignificantopportunitiesforevenfurtherbenefitsfromcountriestakingearlyactionandpairingtheirHFCphase‐downscheduleswithmoreenergyefficientappliancesthatrequireloweramountsofrefrigerantsorotherHFCs(IEA,2022c).Tacklingemissionsofnitrousoxide(N2O)isalsoimportanttoachieveclimategoals.Theagriculturalsectorisresponsibleforaboutfour‐fifthsofanthropogenicN2Oemissions.IntheSTEPS,agriculturalN2Oemissionsrisebyaround8%to2030comparedto2021levels,whereasintheNZEScenariotheyfallbyaround2%overthisperiod,mainlyduetoefficiencygainsincropmanagementandfertilizeruse.Themajorityofenergy‐relatedN2Oemissionstodayareassociatedwiththeindustrysectorandroadtransport.IntheNZEScenario,energy‐relatedN2Oemissionsfallbyaround30%between2021‐2030,almostentirelyassociatedwithreductionsincoalandoiluse.Sustainabledevelopmentgoalsrelatedtotacklingairpollutionorprovidingcleanenergyaccesscanalsomitigatenon‐CO2GHGsasaco‐benefit.Forexample,achievinguniversalaccesstocleancookingby2030intheNZEscenariocutsGHGemissionsbyalmost900MtCO2‐eqduetotheavoidedreleaseofmethaneandN2Ofromtraditionaluseofbiomass,anditalsoreducesemissionsofblackcarbon.Pillar4:carbonmanagementCarbonmanagementreferstotechnologiesandprocessesenablingthecapture,useandstorageofcarbon,bothfrompointsourceslikepowerplantandindustrysmokestacksbutalsofromtheatmosphere.Asnetatmosphericremovalsfromtheland‐usesectorweredealtwithunderPillar2,thediscussionherefocusesonenergysectorcarbonmanagement.Essentiallyallscenariosthatlimitwarmingto1.5°Cmakeuseofenergysectorcarbonmanagementtoplaythreeroles:Carboncaptureandstorage(CCS)avoidsemissionstotheatmosphereinsectorswherealternativecleanenergytechnologiesareexpensiveorlacking,suchasindustrialprocessemissions,andfromexistingelectricityorindustrialfacilities,manyofwhichwerebuiltinthepastdecade.Carboncaptureanduse(CCU)providesacarbonfeedstockfortheproductionofsyntheticfuelscriticaltodecarbonisingsectorslikeaviation.Ifthesourceofthiscarbonfeedstockisatmospheric8,theresultingfuelisclimateneutral.8AnatmosphericsourceofcarboncanincludedirectcaptureofCO2fromatmosphere(directaircapture)orindirectcapturemediatedbyplantphotosynthesis.Crediblepathwaysto1.5C13IEA.CCBY4.0.Carbondioxideremoval(CDR)canalsocompensateforcontinuedemissionsinsectorswherereductionsarehardest,and–ifremovalsexceedgrossemissions–canadditionallyprovidenetnegativeemissionstodrawdowncarbonfromtheatmosphereandtherebyreduceglobaltemperatures.CDRcanoccurdirectlythroughdirectaircaptureandstorage(DACS)orindirectlythroughtheprocessofatmosphericcarbonuptakeintheprocessofbiomassgrowth,inthecaseofbioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS).Evenifcleantechnologiesoutsideofcarbonmanagementaredeployedaggressively,carbonmanagementwillbeneededtomeetclimategoals.By2030,about1.2GtarecapturedannuallyacrosstheenergysystemintheNZEScenario.Thisrepresentsalmosta30‐foldincreaseon2021levels.Basedoncurrentprojectpipelines,annualcarboncaptureisprojectedtoreachabout0.3Gtby2030.ThisimpliesthatthecurrentpipelineofprojectswouldneedtogrowbyfourtimestoreachNZElevelsby2030.Ofthe1.2GtofcarbonmanagementrequiredintheNZEin2030,aboutone‐thirdisusedtomitigateemissionsfromfossilfuelcombustioninsectorslikeindustryandelectricitygeneration.However,renewablesremainthemaindriverofemissionsreductionsinthepowersector,makinguparound60%oftotalpowergenerationintheNZEin2030,whilefossilplantsequippedwithcarboncapturemakeuplessthan1%.Anotherone‐thirdavoidsprocessemissionsinindustrialsectorsandhydrogenproduction.One‐fifthrelatestoremovalsfromtheatmosphere.MostofthiscomesfromBECCSintheelectricity,industry,andbiofuelsproductionsectors.DACSisalsoscaledup,reachingnearly70milliontonsby2030(Figure5).However,theprojectpipelineforDACisgrowingrapidly.Ifallannouncedprojectsweretoadvance,DACdeploymentwouldreachNZEScenariorequirementsfor2030,althoughthetechnologywouldneedtogrowveryrapidlyafter2030inordertobeinlinewitha1.5°Cscenario(IEA,2023).Carbonmanagementtechnologiesareanimportantstrategictoolinstrongmitigationscenarios,butbynomeansasilverbullet.ThescaleofdeploymentrequiredintheNZEScenarioishuge,equivalenttotennewCCUS‐equippedfacilitiescommissionedeachmonthbetweennowand2030.CDRtechnologiesdonotremovetheneedfordeepemissionscuts.IntheNZEScenario,1.5GtofCO2peryearareremovedfromtheatmospherewithCDRtechnologiesby2050,balancingresidualgrossemissionsandbringingnetCO2emissionstozero.However,iftheworldovershootstheavailableCO2budgetfor1.5°Corifgrossemissionsaren’treducedasstronglyasintheNZEScenario,additionalCDRwouldberequired.14InternationalEnergyAgencyIEA.CCBY4.0.Figure5⊳TotalCO2capturebysectorandtypeintheNZE,2030IEA.CCBY4.0.Carboncapturetechnologiesplayanimportantroleacrossthewholeenergysector,butparticularlyinmitigatingprocessemissionsfromindustrialandfuelproductionNotes:DAC=directaircapture.Notallthecarbondioxideremovalshowninthefigure(shadedareas)ispermanent,assomeofthecapturedatmosphericcarbonisusedforexampleforsyntheticfuelsproduction.ThisadditionalCDRwouldhavesignificanttrade‐offs.Forexample,highovershoot1.5°CscenariosassessedbytheIPCCseeannuallyabout7GtCO2ofBECCSandDACSin2060.AchievingthiswithamixofBECCSandDACScouldrequire:AlandareaequivalenttothecurrentcroplandoftheUnitedStatestosupplybioenergy9.About760GWofadditionalwindandsolargenerationcapacity(almostequivalenttothecurrentcombinedcapacityoftheEuropeanUnion,UnitedStates,IndiaandJapan).Thermalenergyalmostequivalenttothe2021naturalgasconsumptionoftheEuropeanUnion.9LandarearequirementscalculatedhereassumeabioenergysupplysimilartothatusedintheIEANZEin2050.Partofthebioenergysupplyrequireslanduseintheformofcropland,marginalland,pastureland,andmanagedforestedland,complementedbywastesandresidueswhichdonotrequirelanduse(IEA,2021).100200300400500AvoidedRemovedAvoidedRemovedAvoidedRemovedAvoidedRemovedCoalOilNaturalgasProcessBioenergyHydrogenBiofuelsOtherDACElectricityproductionIndustryFuelsupplyDACMtCO2FuelsupplyElectricityandindustryAircaptureCrediblepathwaysto1.5C15IEA.CCBY4.0.ReferencesByersetal.(2022),AR6ScenariosDatabasehostedbyIIASA,https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5886911IEA(InternationalEnergyAgency)(2023a),Globalheatpumpsalescontinuedouble‐digitgrowth,https://www.iea.org/commentaries/global‐heat‐pump‐sales‐continue‐double‐digit‐growthIEA(2023b),EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2023,https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a86b480e‐2b03‐4e25‐bae1‐da1395e0b620/EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2023.pdfIEA(2022a),CO2Emissionsin2022,https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/3c8fa115‐35c4‐4474‐b237‐1b00424c8844/CO2Emissionsin2022.pdfIEA(2022b),WorldEnergyOutlook2022,https://www.iea.org/reports/world‐energy‐outlook‐2022IEA(2022c),TheFutureofHeatPumps,https://www.iea.org/reports/the‐future‐of‐heat‐pumpsIEA(2021),Whatdoesnet‐zeroemissionsby2050meanforbioenergyandlanduse?,https://www.iea.org/articles/what‐does‐net‐zero‐emissions‐by‐2050‐mean‐for‐bioenergy‐and‐land‐useIPCC(InternationalPanelonClimateChange)(2022),SummaryforPolicyMakers,ClimateChange2022:Impacts,AdaptationandVulnerability,https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.001IPCC(2021a),SummaryforPolicyMakers,ClimateChange2021:ThePhysicalScienceBasis,https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001IPCC(2021b),ClimateChange2021ThePhysicalScienceBasis,https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter06.pdfIPCC(2018),GlobalWarmingof1.5°C:SummaryforPolicymakers,https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.001InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)ThisworkreflectstheviewsoftheIEASecretariatbutdoesnotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheIEA’sindividualMembercountriesorofanyparticularfunderorcollaborator.Theworkdoesnotconstituteprofessionaladviceonanyspecificissueorsituation.TheIEAmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,inrespectofthework’scontents(includingitscompletenessoraccuracy)andshallnotberesponsibleforanyuseof,orrelianceon,thework.SubjecttotheIEA’sNoticeforCC-licencedContent,thisworkislicencedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0InternationalLicence.Thisdocumentandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Unlessotherwiseindicated,allmaterialpresentedinfiguresandtablesisderivedfromIEAdataandanalysis.IEAPublicationsInternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.orgContactinformation:www.iea.org/contactTypesetinFrancebyIEA-April2023Coverdesign:IEA

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