亚洲净零转型期间的行为变化：来自中产阶级家庭消费的证据-64页VIP专享VIP免费

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BACKGROUND PAPER

DISCLAIMER

This background paper was prepared for the report Asian Development Outlook Thematic Report 2023.

Itismadeavailable here to communicate the results of the underlying research work with the least possible

delay. Themanuscriptofthis paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures

appropriate to formally-edited texts.

The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the

Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADBdoesnot

guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this document and accepts no responsibility for any

consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that

they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.

Any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or use of the term “country” in

this document, is not intended to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

Boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this document do not imply any

judgment on the part of the ADB concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance

of such boundaries.

Behavioral Changes during

Asia’s Net Zero Transition:

Evidence from Middle-

Class Household

Consumption

Babette Never

BEHAVIORAL CHANGES DURING ASIA’S NET ZERO TRANSITION

Evidence from Middle-Class Household Consumption

Babette Never

Senior Researcher

IDOS German Institute of Development and Sustainability (formerly named DIE)

Abstract

A net zero transition to climate-neutral development in Asia needs to systematically include

the consumer perspective. Net-zero transition policies including consumers will need to

differentiate both between and within Asian countries, reflecting inequality in emissions,

consumption patterns, and capabilities. The growing and aspiring middle classes present the

key consumer group that will shape the next decade in Asia. Key opportunities include

changing consumer norms and aspirations before lock-in, while reaping co-benefits on local

problems, and new job and market opportunities from rising consumer incomes, e.g., in (a)

low-carbon technologies, (b) new services/sharing economy, (c) refurbed and remanufactured

products/circular economy, and (d) low-carbon buildings and construction. Future policies

could integrate and expand sustainable consumption and production policies more

systematically to unleash a virtuous cycle, combining regulations, financial incentives and

behavioural insights tools. Regulations and financial incentives are particularly useful for

costly investments, complex decision-making situations, infrastructure support and steering

unpopular choices. Behavioural insights tools are helpful for concrete, individual-level

programs, the adoption of low-carbon technologies and addressing individuals with high

environmental concern and intrinsic motivation. Sequencing and targeting measures in policy

packages to ensure a timely and just transition is required.

Note

In this report, “$” refers to United States dollars.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A net zero transition to climate-neutral development in Asia needs to systematically include

the consumer perspective. Focusing on greening the supply side will not be sufficient;

consumer pressure and demand shifts are essential to push the producer side. The mitigation

potential of consumer-oriented measures is large: 40%–70% reduction of greenhouse gases in

the end-use of technology and use of infrastructure is possible, according to the latest report of

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2022). Net-zero transition policies

including consumers will need to differentiate both between and within Asian countries,

reflecting inequality in emissions, consumption patterns, and capabilities. The growing and

aspiring middle classes present the key consumer group that will shape the next decade in Asia.

Their role is central for a net zero transition for two reasons: First, lock-in effects of

consumption habits and lifestyles happen as people move up the income ladder. Second, the

projected middle class consumption growth has a sheer impact in the coming decades. Already

17%–20% change in consumer choices can be a tipping point for market structures and a

committed group of 25% can be enough to change social convention (Newell et al. 2021; Otto

et al. 2020; Centola et al. 2018). Windows of opportunity to engage in win-win situations for

low-carbon transitions are open now.

Key opportunities include:

(i) changing consumer norms and aspirations before lock-in, while reaping co-

benefits on local problems, such as air pollution, health, gross domestic product

losses because of traffic jams, and energy security; and

(ii) new job and market opportunities from rising consumer incomes, e.g., in (a)

low-carbon technologies, (b) new services/sharing economy, (c) refurbed and

remanufactured products/circular economy, and (d) low-carbon buildings and

construction.

Key challenges include:

(i) how to guide consumers towards low-carbon consumption without depriving

anyone of opportunities (boosting sustainable, low-carbon demand);

(ii) how to manage consumption and emission inequality across and within Asian

countries;

/66

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BACKGROUNDPAPERDISCLAIMERThisbackgroundpaperwaspreparedforthereportAsianDevelopmentOutlookThematicReport2023.Itismadeavailableheretocommunicatetheresultsoftheunderlyingresearchworkwiththeleastpossibledelay.Themanuscriptofthispaperthereforehasnotbeenpreparedinaccordancewiththeproceduresappropriatetoformally-editedtexts.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB),itsBoardofGovernors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthisdocumentandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.Anydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicarea,oruseoftheterm“country”inthisdocument,isnotintendedtomakeanyjudgmentsastothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea.Boundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisdocumentdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartoftheADBconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.BehavioralChangesduringAsia’sNetZeroTransition:EvidencefromMiddle-ClassHouseholdConsumptionBabetteNever1BEHAVIORALCHANGESDURINGASIA’SNETZEROTRANSITIONEvidencefromMiddle-ClassHouseholdConsumptionBabetteNeverSeniorResearcherIDOSGermanInstituteofDevelopmentandSustainability(formerlynamedDIE)AbstractAnetzerotransitiontoclimate-neutraldevelopmentinAsianeedstosystematicallyincludetheconsumerperspective.Net-zerotransitionpoliciesincludingconsumerswillneedtodifferentiatebothbetweenandwithinAsiancountries,reflectinginequalityinemissions,consumptionpatterns,andcapabilities.ThegrowingandaspiringmiddleclassespresentthekeyconsumergroupthatwillshapethenextdecadeinAsia.Keyopportunitiesincludechangingconsumernormsandaspirationsbeforelock-in,whilereapingco-benefitsonlocalproblems,andnewjobandmarketopportunitiesfromrisingconsumerincomes,e.g.,in(a)low-carbontechnologies,(b)newservices/sharingeconomy,(c)refurbedandremanufacturedproducts/circulareconomy,and(d)low-carbonbuildingsandconstruction.Futurepoliciescouldintegrateandexpandsustainableconsumptionandproductionpoliciesmoresystematicallytounleashavirtuouscycle,combiningregulations,financialincentivesandbehaviouralinsightstools.Regulationsandfinancialincentivesareparticularlyusefulforcostlyinvestments,complexdecision-makingsituations,infrastructuresupportandsteeringunpopularchoices.Behaviouralinsightstoolsarehelpfulforconcrete,individual-levelprograms,theadoptionoflow-carbontechnologiesandaddressingindividualswithhighenvironmentalconcernandintrinsicmotivation.Sequencingandtargetingmeasuresinpolicypackagestoensureatimelyandjusttransitionisrequired.NoteInthisreport,“$”referstoUnitedStatesdollars.2EXECUTIVESUMMARYAnetzerotransitiontoclimate-neutraldevelopmentinAsianeedstosystematicallyincludetheconsumerperspective.Focusingongreeningthesupplysidewillnotbesufficient;consumerpressureanddemandshiftsareessentialtopushtheproducerside.Themitigationpotentialofconsumer-orientedmeasuresislarge:40%–70%reductionofgreenhousegasesintheend-useoftechnologyanduseofinfrastructureispossible,accordingtothelatestreportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC2022).Net-zerotransitionpoliciesincludingconsumerswillneedtodifferentiatebothbetweenandwithinAsiancountries,reflectinginequalityinemissions,consumptionpatterns,andcapabilities.ThegrowingandaspiringmiddleclassespresentthekeyconsumergroupthatwillshapethenextdecadeinAsia.Theirroleiscentralforanetzerotransitionfortworeasons:First,lock-ineffectsofconsumptionhabitsandlifestyleshappenaspeoplemoveuptheincomeladder.Second,theprojectedmiddleclassconsumptiongrowthhasasheerimpactinthecomingdecades.Already17%–20%changeinconsumerchoicescanbeatippingpointformarketstructuresandacommittedgroupof25%canbeenoughtochangesocialconvention(Newelletal.2021;Ottoetal.2020;Centolaetal.2018).Windowsofopportunitytoengageinwin-winsituationsforlow-carbontransitionsareopennow.Keyopportunitiesinclude:(i)changingconsumernormsandaspirationsbeforelock-in,whilereapingco-benefitsonlocalproblems,suchasairpollution,health,grossdomesticproductlossesbecauseoftrafficjams,andenergysecurity;and(ii)newjobandmarketopportunitiesfromrisingconsumerincomes,e.g.,in(a)low-carbontechnologies,(b)newservices/sharingeconomy,(c)refurbedandremanufacturedproducts/circulareconomy,and(d)low-carbonbuildingsandconstruction.Keychallengesinclude:(i)howtoguideconsumerstowardslow-carbonconsumptionwithoutdeprivinganyoneofopportunities(boostingsustainable,low-carbondemand);(ii)howtomanageconsumptionandemissioninequalityacrossandwithinAsiancountries;3(iii)statusconsumptionandaspiration/socialnormsofconsumingcarbon-intensivegoods;(iv)lackofenvironmentalawareness;(v)knowledge/valueactiongap;and(vi)complexdecision-makingsituationswithmanystakeholders,expensivelow-carbonalternatives,andreboundeffects.Futurepoliciescouldintegrateandexpandsustainableconsumptionandproductionpoliciesmoresystematicallytounleashavirtuouscycle.Sequencingandtargetingmeasuresinpolicypackagestoensureatimelyandjusttransitionisrequired.Regulationandfinancialincentives/support(standardtoolbox)areparticularlyusefulfor:(i)largerand/orverycostlyinvestmentdecisionsatindividualorcollectivelevel;(ii)complexdecision-makingsetupswithmanyinfluencingfactorsandstakeholders;(iii)setupofsustainablealternatives(e.g.,productdesign,infrastructure);and(iv)steeringunpopularchoices.Behavioralinsightsareparticularlyusefulfor:(i)improvingexistingindividual-levelprograms(e.g.,recycling);(ii)increasingtheadoptionandsmartuseoflow-carbontechnologies(e.g.,airconditioners);(iii)expandingsupportforenvironmentalpolicyandprojects;and(iv)addressingindividualswithhighenvironmentalconcern/intrinsicmotivation,especiallywhenusing“nudging”techniques4I.INTRODUCTION:CONSUMERWELL-BEINGINASIA’SNETZEROTRANSITIONAnetzerotransitiontoclimate-neutraldevelopmentinAsianeedstosystematicallyincludetheconsumerperspective.Themitigationpotentialofconsumer-orientedmeasuresislarge:40%–70%reductionofgreenhousegasesintheend-useoftechnologyanduseofinfrastructureispossible,accordingtothelatestreportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC2022).Populationgrowth,urbanization,andthegrowthofmiddleclasseswithmoreconsumptioncapabilitiesputthespotlightonthedemandside.Globalmiddleclassgrowthhasstartedtoincreasesubstantially,with50%oftheglobalpopulationbelongingtothemiddleclassesin2018(KharasandHamel2018).Thistrendwillskyrocketinthecomingdecadesinspiteofslowereconomicdevelopmentbecauseofglobalcrises,adding1billionnewmiddle-classconsumersinAsiaaloneuntil2030.BeyondthePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC)andIndia,thestrongestgrowthinmiddle-classconsumersisexpectedinIndonesia,Pakistan,Bangladesh,andthePhilippines,indescendingorder(WorldDataLab2021).Net-zerotransitionpoliciesincludingconsumerswillneedtodifferentiatebothbetweenandwithinAsiancountries,reflectingconsumptionpatternsandcapabilities:(i)Asia’shigh-incomecountrieswithlarge,stablemiddleclassesandelites(e.g.,theRepublicofKorea,Japan);(ii)middle-incomecountrieswithrisingmiddleclassesandstrongeconomicproductionhubs(e.g.,thePRC,India,VietNam);and(iii)low-incomecountrieswithsmallandinstable,butpossiblyaspiringmiddleclasses(e.g.,CambodiaandtheLaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic[LaoPDR]).InAsia’shigh-incomecountries,suchasJapanortheRepublicofKorea,morestringentlow-carbonpoliciesforconsumptionandproductionsystemsarepossibleacrossallpopulationsectionsthaninlow-incomecountries,suchastheLaoPDRorCambodia.Inequalitiesofconsumptionpatternsandcapabilitieswithincountriesneedtobetakenintoaccount.Ajusttransitiontonetzeroneedstotargetdemand-sidemeasurescarefullywhilemanagingsynergiesandtrade-offsfordifferentsectionsofthepopulation,e.g.,buildingattractivemodernbussystemsforurbanmiddle-classcommuters,whileofferingstaggeredandintegratedfaresystemstonotcrowdoutthepoor.5Windowsofopportunitytoengageinwin-winsituationsforlow-carbontransitionsareopennow:(i)investinginlowcarboninfrastructureandlowcarbontechnologythatbenefitsfuturemarketsandeconomicdevelopmentand(ii)influencingevolvingnormsofconsumptiontowardswell-being.In2022,theStockholmplus50conferencesorganizedbytheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammecalledforanewcompassofwelfareandwell-being.1Anormofwell-beingasthe‘newcool’inAsiahasalargepotentialtotransformmarketsandenableanetzerotransition.Fornow,EuropeandtheUnitedStatesarestillmostlysettingglobalconsumptiontrends.However,Asiancountrieshavearangeofopportunitiestosetanewnormofwell-beingwithoutcompromisingondevelopmentneeds.EnvironmentalexternalitiesareoftenmorevisibleinAsiandevelopingcountriesthaninindustrializedcountriesoftheGlobalNorth(e.g.,flooding),makingthemhardertohide(BharandAnantharaman2022).Formiddle-incomeandhigh-incomehouseholdsinAsia,thecause-and-effectchainofownconsumptionpatternsandresourceusethereforemaybeeasiertograspthanforlargelyunaffectedmiddle-incomehouseholdsinEurope.Consumptionandbehaviornormsmayalsonotbeasfixedyet,especiallyamongthesociallymobilemiddleclasses.Finally,dependingonthesector,sunkcostsofexistinghighcarboninfrastructureandtechnologiesmaynotbeassubstantialyetasinindustrializedcountries,ormayneedtobeexpandedoradaptedinanycasebecauseofurbanizationandpopulationgrowth(e.g.,energyproductioninfrastructure,transportsystems).ThisbackgroundstudywillfocusonthreekeysectorsforanetzerotransitioninAsiathatofferparticularopportunitiesbyintegratingaconsumerperspectiveintosystemicsustainableconsumptionandproductionpolicies.Changesinmobilityhavethehighestgreenhousegasreductionpotentialandofferclearlocalco-benefitsintermsofindividualhealthandreductionofoverallairpollution(IPCC2022).Theenergysectoralsohasahighclimatechangeimpact,bothinproductionandend-consumption,andpresentsapoliticalpriorityacrossgovernmentsinAsia.Theshifttoacirculareconomyand,specifically,recyclingandreuseofmaterialsratherhasalowtomediumdirectmitigationimpactbutcountsasaneasyentrytosustainableconsumptionformanyconsumersacrosstheworld.Acrosssectors,policiestosupportthenetzerotransitiontowardswell-beingneedtomakeuseofthefullrangeofthetoolboxavailable:Technologyandinfrastructureinvestments,financial1https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/38911/Stockholm50_CN.pdf.6incentivesandsupport,regulation,andinformationalandbehavioralinsightstools.ForasuccessfulnetzerotransitioninAsia,asystematicandtargetedlinkingofconsumer(demand)andproducer(products,infrastructure)measuresthatcombinethesetoolsisrequired.II.CURRENTCONSUMPTIONTRENDSA.KeyMitigationSectorsThekeysectorsformitigationatthehouseholdlevelaretransport,energy,andfood(IPCC2022).AcrossAsia,changingmobilityandenergybehaviorsarelikelyeasiertoshifttowardslow-carbonopportunitiesthandeeplyculturalandemotionallychargedfoodtraditions.Aszoomingintocirculareconomyandrecyclingmaybepromising,itisthereforediscussedhereratherthanthefoodsector.2Transport.Thetransitiontolow-carbontransportsystemsoffersco-benefitsforconvenient,efficientmobilityforallincomegroups,healthandairpollution.AcrossAsia,threemajortrendsinprivatemobilitycanbewitnessed:First,onlineride-hailingservices,suchasDidi,Grab,orOla,areestimatedtohaveservedmorethan800millionusersacrossAsiain2020(McKinsey2021).Theseride-hailingservicesalsoincreasinglyincludemotorcyclesincongestedcities.Second,carsubscriptionservicesbymajorautomotivefirmssuchasToyotaandHyundaiarebecomingmorepopularasanalternativetobuyingaprivatecar;forinstance,inthePRC(McKinsey2021).Finally,theshifttoelectricvehiclesisongoing,withaclearboominthePRCalreadyandthemarketinIndiadevelopingfastaswell,givengovernmentincentives(refertootherbackgroundnoteonelectricvehiclemarkets).Dependingontheenergysourceproducingelectricityforthecars,theeffectsforanetzerotransitionaremixed.Finally,consumerinterestincombustionengineanddieselcarsisunbroken.Asianconsumersshiftedsomewhattoacquiringusedratherthannewcarsduringthecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)years,butcompoundannualgrowthrateforecastsforSoutheastAsia,forexample,expectasteady6%increaseinallprivatevehiclesfrom2022to2027again.3Thesetrendsalltendtoprivatemotorizedmobility,possiblybothreactingtoandfuellingindividualconsumerpreferences.Asthetransitiontolow-carbonpublictransportinfrastructure2Totheauthor’sknowledge,anotherAsianDevelopmentOutlookbackgroundnoteonagriculturalpracticesdiscussesoptionsforlimitingfoodwasteinAsia.3https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/south-east-asia-used-car-market(accessedOctober2002).7andmobilitysystemsrequiresbothlargefinancialinvestmentsandtime,itisimperativetounderstandconsumermotivations,beliefs,anddecisioncontextsandtodeveloppolicypackagestosupport,especiallytheemergingmiddleclasses,toremaininpublictransport.Energy.Giventhecurrentglobalcrises,energysecurity,energyefficiency,andthetransitiontorenewablesarenowmorelinkedthanever.Demand-sidemanagementofenergysystemsandenergysavingbyconsumershavebeenpartofenergypoliciesinmanyAsiancountriesforyearsnow.TotalenergyconsumptionpercapitaisstilllowinAsiacomparedtoEurope(FigureA1).Fromaclimatemitigationperspective,increasingenergyconsumptionisonlyproblematicifenergyisderivedfromfossilfuels.ThiswillremainthecaseinmanyAsiancountriesforyearstocome,bothintermsofcoveringcurrentbaseloadsandplannedadditionalpowercapacities.Further,sub-nationally,energyconsumptiontrendsstarttodiffersubstantially(FiguresA2–A4),Table1),callingforashifttomoredifferentiatedconsumptionpolicies.Middleclassgrowthmeansincreasingpressureonenergysupplyandahighercarbonimpactoftheenergysectorasmorepeoplecanaffordenergy-usingassets.IncreasingtemperaturesinAsiabecauseofglobalwarmingfostersdynamicairconditioningmarkets,bothofnewandusedair-conditioners(ACs),forexample.Thedemandforglobalspacecoolingand,correspondingly,thesalesnumbersofroomACsaresoaring,especiallyintropicalmiddle-incomecountriesinAsia.Energydemandforspacecoolingisexpectedtotriplegloballyuntil2050(IEA2018).TheroomACmarketinthePhilippines,forexample,wasalreadysizeablewithabout700,000newunitssoldannuallyin2016;itincreasedtoabout900,000unitsin2018(GIZ2019;Statista2020).GrowthtrendsintheroomACmarketareexpectedtocontinuestronglyonthebackofmorehomestayingactivitiesandaverylimitedonlinemarket,inspiteofoveralleconomicimpactsoftheCOVID-19pandemic.Thesemarketdynamicspresentachallengefromanenergysecurityperspective,butalsofromaclimatechangeperspective.GlobalwarmingeffectsderivingfrombothelectricityuseofACs(ifnon-renewableelectricitysource)andclimate-harmfulrefrigerantsintheACaretremendous.Globally,energy-efficient,climate-friendlycoolingcouldsaveupto8yearsofglobalemissionsat2018levels(IEA2020).ForthePhilippines,coolingsectoremissionsare8expectedtorisefrom24.7metrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(MtCO2e)in2017to44.6MtCO2ein2050inabusiness-as-usualscenario(GIZ2019).ACsmakeupasubstantialamountofahousehold’scarbonfootprintandelectricitybillbecauseoftheenergyintensityintheusestageandpossiblerefrigerantleakage.ThecoolingtransitionneedstobeaddressedmuchmoreproactivelytoenableanetzerotransitioninAsia;forexample,bysupportingthetransitiontogreenACs,passivecooling,greenarchitecture,andinfluencingconsumernormsoncoolingcomfort.LowermiddleclassandpoorerhouseholdsmayratherbuyausedAC;here,moreinterventionsarerequiredtostrikeabalancebetweenaffordabilityandaccesstocooling,carbonfootprint,energyintensity,andreuseofmaterials(Never2022).Circulareconomyandrecycling.Thetransitiontocirculareconomyandtheprogressofrecyclingasapartofwastemanagementofferneglectedopportunitiestoachieveanetzerotransition.Wasteincinerationandlandfillemissionsaresubstantial:20%ofallmethaneemissionsemanatingfromhumanactivitycomefromwaste(UNEP2021).Inparallel,thesheeramountofwasteproducedbecauseofpopulationgrowthandmiddleclassgrowth,whohavemorecapacitiestobuyandreplaceitemsthanlow-incomegroups,needspropermanagement,offeringco-benefits.Similartothetransportandenergysectors,investmentsintothesupplyside(wastemanagementplantsandrecycling,mechanicalandchemicalrecyclingoptionsratherthanincineration,andintegrationofinformalwastecollectors)needtogohandinhandwiththedemandorconsumerside(wasteseparationandrecycling,consumerawareness,andwasteavoidance)toachievedeeperchangeinlinewithanetzerotransition.Forconsumers,avoidingwaste,reusingmaterials,orrecyclingoftenconstitutealow-cost,easyentrytopro-environmental,low-carbonbehavior.Toachievebehavioralchangesinhouseholds,itisthereforeusefultoanalysethissectorandtoidentifypossiblesynergiesandtrade-offstoother,highimpact,highcostsectorsuchastransportandenergy.B.KeyConsumerGroupsfortheFutureOncehouseholdsmoveoutofpoverty,consumptioncapacitiesandconsumptionpatternschange.Thisisdesirablefromadevelopmentperspectivebutmayhaveimplicationsfortheenvironment.Increasingconsumption,inturn,hassocio-environmentalconsequences,shapingnaturalresourceandspaceavailability,airpollution,andcarbonemissions.Theemerging9middleclassesmakelifestylechoicesthatultimatelyimpacttheenvironmentpositivelyornegatively.InequalityinpercapitaconsumptiontrendsandassociatedcarbonfootprintsnecessitatesdifferentiatedstrategieswithinAsiancountries.Theinequalitiesinincomeandlivelihoodconditionsacrossandwithincountriesbothfuelandareaffectedbyecologicalresourcedepletionandclimatechange.Whereasmiddle-incomeandhigher-incomehouseholdscontributemoretoclimatechangeandaremorecapabletodealwithresourcescarcityandclimatechange,lower-incomehouseholdscontributelesstoglobalecologicalcrisesandaredisproportionallyaffectedbyadverseimpactsofclimatechange.InIndia,forexample,thetop20%ofhouseholdsemittedseventimestheemissionsofpoorhouseholds(thosewhospendlessthan$1.9perday)in2021(Leeetal.2021a).InthePRC,theurbanandruralmiddleclassescontributednearly40%and15%oftotalhouseholdconsumptionemissionsin2016,respectively(Weietal.2020).Inthisstudy,middle-classhouseholdsareunderstoodhereasthosewithanincomeof$11–$110purchasingpowerparitypercapitaperday,followingthedefinitionbyKharas(2017).TheaspiringmiddleclassesinAsiamaynotyetbelongtothehighlyemission-intensivegroupsintheirrespectivecountries.Still,theirroleiscrucialforguidingfuturetrendstowardsanetzerotransitionfortworeasons:First,lock-ineffectsofconsumptionhabitsandlifestyleshappenaspeoplemoveuptheincomeladder.Themoreusedtoacertainwayoflivingandconsumingapersonis,thelesslikelyheorsheistochangetheirwayseasily.Onceformed,consumptionhabitsandrelatedsocialnormsbecomedeeplyentrenchedandaredifficulttochange(Setoetal.2016).Amongthegrowingmiddleclasses,thesehabitsandsocialnormsarenotasdeeplyfixedyet,butratherdrivenbyaspirations,statusconsiderations,oramixofspecificvaluesandthriftthatresultinvariousdifferentpreferences.Thus,turninglowcarbonconsumptionandsustainablelifestylesintoanaspirationforthemiddleclassesisstillaviableoptionnow.10Second,thesheerimpactofprojectedmiddleclassconsumptiongrowthinthecomingdecadesiskeyforthesuccessofanetzerotransition,asalready17%–20%changeinconsumerchoicescanbeatippingpointformarketstructuresandacommittedgroupof25%canbeenoughtochangesocialconvention(Newelletal.2021;Ottoetal.2020;Centolaetal.2018).Ifavastnumberofmiddle-classconsumersin,say,Bangladeshdecidedtoonlyusejutebagsandavoidgoodsinplasticpackagingasmuchaspossible,thiswouldincitecompaniestocatertothelocalmarketinsteadofexportingjutebags.Asspendingcapacitiesanddemandforproductsandservicesincrease,theconsumptionpatternsandlifestylesofthemiddleclasseshavethepotentialtodriveglobalandlocaleconomies(Kharas2017).InthePRC,forexample,theconsumptionpatternchangesofthemiddleandrichclassesalreadydrove131%and83%ofthegrowthofemissionsfrom2010to2016,respectively(Weietal.2020).Therefore,ashifttosustainableconsumptionmayshiftmarkets.Asiadiffersfromotherworldregionsbecauseofthehighersharesofmiddleclassesnowandinthefutureaswellasitsuniquelinkbetweenglobalproductionandconsumptionhubs.ThemiddleclassesinAsiaaregrowingatunprecedentedscale,thoughtheirgrowthhasvariedconsiderablyacrosscountries(Chunetal.2017).AskeyhubsforglobalproductionandconsumptionareincreasinglylocatedinAsia,especiallythePRCandIndia,thewindowofopportunitytoshapeconsumptionandproductionpatternsisopenforAsianow.ThetransitiontoelectricvehiclesismuchmoreadvancedinthePRCthanintheUnitedStates,forexample,andride-sharingismuchcommoninmanyAsianthaninEuropeancountries,eventhoughtheBox1:Whatissustainableconsumption?Sustainableconsumptioncanbeunderstoodasindividualcontributionstodecoupledevelopmentpathwaysfromresourceusewithoutcompromisingdevelopmentneeds;forexample,byincreasingenergyefficiencyandrecycling,whilereducingcarbonemissions.Itisnotmeantasanormativeconceptthatcompares“good”and“bad”lifestylesorimposesatopicofdiscussionamongindustrializedcountriesonlow-incomeandmiddle-incomecountries.Definitionsofsustainableconsumptiontendtostresseithertheproductionofmoresustainableproductsorthebehaviorandlifestylesofendconsumers(Jackson2007).Thisreportfocusesonthelatter.Source:Jackson(2007).11positiveenvironmentaleffectofride-sharingdependsonwhichpreviousmobilitybehaviorwasreplaced(Chalermpongetal.2022).Thus,Asianconsumershavetheoptiontodefineownnormsandgoalsofwell-beingandinfluenceproducers,whichcanbepositiveandnegativefortheenvironment.Theaspirationsandpreferredlifestylesofthemiddleclasseswillbeparticularlyrelevantinthisregard.EventhoughAsia’smiddleclassesdonotpresentahomogeneousgroup,trendsinkeysectorsforanetzerotransitionarelikelytobesimilaramongtheglobalmiddleclassesacrosstheworld.Ingeneral,theshareofenergyuse,mobility,andcommunicationinhouseholdexpenditureincreaseswithincome,whereastheshareoffooddecreases,butusuallybecomesmorecarbon-intensive.Ahigherintakeofmeatandprocessedfoodthathasbeentransportedforlongerdistancesareresponsible(Tschirleyetal.2015).Energy-andcarbon-intensivegoodssuchascars,freezers,orACsaremorelikelytobeacquiredashouseholdsmoveupthesocioeconomicladder.Indeed,analysesbasedonhouseholdsurveysamongmiddle-classhouseholdsinGhana,Peru,andthePhilippineshaveuncoveredthatcarbon-intensiveassetacquisitionandmobilitybehavior(e.g.,airtravel)starttoincreasesignificantlyamongthetwouppermiddleclassquintiles(Neveretal.2020;FiguresA5–A6).Incomeorwealthlevelsandhouseholddemographicspresentthepredominantdriversofcarandhouseholdapplianceuptake,forexampleinIndiaandthePhilippines(Ramakrishnanetal.2020;Neveretal.2020).HouseholdcarbonfootprintstudiesonthePRCandIndia(Leeetal.2021a;Wiedenhofer2016)andananalysisofenergy-intensiveassetacquisitioninMexicoconfirmthisgeneralpicture(Gertleretal2016).Currenteffortstoinvestinenergyefficiencyandpracticeenergysavingbehaviorsinhouseholdsdonotnecessarilylowerelectricitybillsandtotalhouseholdelectricityconsumption(Table1).TheexampleofthePhilippinesshowsthatconsumerswithmoreenvironmentalconcernaremorelikelytoadoptcurtailmentbehaviors,butthatconcerndoesnotrelatetoenergyefficiencyinvestments.Inturn,higherlevelsofenvironmentalknowledgemakehouseholds’energyefficiencyinvestmentsmorelikely,butdonotpredictcurtailment.Neitherenergyefficiencyinvestmentsnorcurtailmentbehaviorssignificantlypredicthouseholds’electricityexpenditures,butsociodemographicfactorssuchasassets,householdsize,andincomedo(Neveretal.2022).12Overall,consumptiontrendsamonglow-incomegroupsrequireadifferentpoliticalstrategythanconsumptiontrendsandprojectionsamongmiddle-incomeandupper-incomegroups.ForatimelyandjustnetzerotransitionwithasmartmitigationapproachforAsianconsumers,developingmeasuresformiddle-incomeandupper-incomeclassesisurgent.Forlow-incomegroups,policytoolstoadvanceenergyaccess,increasemobility,andfosterconsumption-baseddevelopmentaremoreestablishedalreadyandneedtobecontinued.Table1:RegressionResults(Logof)ElectricityexpenditureinPurchasingPowerParity:PhilippinesModel1Model2Model3Model4(Intercept)4.264.254.374.28[4.19,4.33][4.12,4.37][4.31,4.43][4.18,4.38]IndependentvariablesCurtailment-0.01-0.03-0.02-0.02[-0.06,0.03][-0.07,0.02][-0.06,0.02][-0.06,0.02]Efficiencyinvestment0.360.350.150.15[0.27,0.46][0.25,0.44][0.07,0.24][0.06,0.23]IndividualcontrolvariablesEducation0.070.01[0.02,0.11][-0.04,0.05]Gender0.030.11[-0.10,0.16][0.01,0.22]Age0.100.05[0.05,0.14][0.01,0.09]HouseholdcontrolvariablesAsset0.210.21[0.17,0.26][0.16,0.26]Incomedecile0.080.09[0.03,0.13][0.04,0.14]Rooms0.160.16[0.12,0.20][0.11,0.20]Householdmembers0.120.12[0.08,0.17][0.08,0.16]N785785756756AIC1598.871584.021246.971242.88BIC1617.531616.681284.001293.79adj.R²0.070.090.380.38Note:Allcontinuouspredictorsaremean-centeredandscaledby1standarddeviation.Confidenceintervalsareshowninsquaredbracketsandarecalculatedbasedonheteroskedasticityrobuststandarderrors.p<0.001;p<0.01;<0.05Sources:Neveretal.(2022);andhouseholdsurveywith900middle-classmembersinMetroManila.13III.KEYCHALLENGESFORTHECONSUMERSIDEINANET-ZEROTRANSITIONTwooverarchingchallengesexistwhenitcomestointegratingconsumer-orientedmeasuresinAsia’snetzerotransition.First,howtoguideconsumerstowardslow-carbonconsumptionwithoutdeprivinganyoneofdevelopmentopportunities.Essentially,thismeansboostingdemandtowardslowcarbon,sustainablechoicesandinfluencingsocialnormsandaspirationstowardsnewlowcarbon,sustainabilityas”standardbehavior”.Second,howtomanagebothconsumptionpatternsandconsumption-basedemissioninequalitiesacrossandwithinAsiancountries.Thismeansdevelopingdifferentiatedsub-nationalstrategiesforeachsectorthatdonottakethenationalpercapitaaverageasstartingpointanymore.Forinstance,increasingenergyaccessandconsumptionbylow-incomegroups,whilealsodecisivelyshiftingenergydemandbymiddle-incomeandupper-incomegroupstolow-carbon,energy-efficientalternatives.Inaddition,enforcingenergysavingamongmiddle-incomeandupper-incomegroupsislikelytobenecessarybeyondcurrentpromotioncampaignstosaveenergy.Meetingbothchallengesisrequiredtoensureatimelyandjusttransition.Zoomingintomiddle-classconsumerbehaviors,fivemainchallengesconcerningmotivationsandimplementationofconsumermotivationsexist.Someofthesealsoapplytootherconsumersegmentsastheyreflectgeneralhumannatureandpresentasimilarchallengeinothersocietiesacrosstheworld.First,statusconsumptionaswellasconsumers’aspirationsandsocialnormsofconsumingcarbon-intensivegoodsasservicespresentinterlinkedchallengesthatneedattentionnowbeforethewindowofopportunityclosesandlifestylesoftheaspiringmiddleclassesarelockedin.Here,adifferentiatedperspectiveonnecessarygoodsfordevelopmentandconspicuousgoodsofluxuryconsumptionmaybeuseful.Statusconsumptionmeansthatconsumersassociateacertainsocialstatuswithaproductortheuseofagoodorservice,i.e.,signallingtheirpositioninsocietyincomparisontootherhouseholdsorindividuals.Forthemiddleclasses,theseoftenpresentvarioussignalstoothersthat“theyhavemadeit”inlife,asqualitativeresearchinthePhilippineshasshown(NeverandAlbert2021).Status-orientedconsumptiondoesnotnecessarilyhavetobeconspicuousluxury14consumptiononly,butcanalsoincludeday-to-daymobilityandlifestyleproductsatmoderateprice.Inthetransportsector,aspirationsandstatusconsumptionsprimarilyconcernscarownership.EmpiricalevidenceinAsiaissomewhatmixed,possiblybecauseofmeasurementdifferences.Formanymiddle-classmembers,carownershippresentsbothasignalofhavingachievedrespectabilityandasymbolofdistinctionfromtheworkingclasses(NeverandAlbert2021;Anantharaman2017).AmongtheIndianmiddleclasses,socialstatusperceptionsofcarownershiparestrongandclearlydiscernibleinmobilitybehaviors(Ramakrishnanetal.2020;TableA1).However,asAnantharamanargues,theconsumptionpatternsofIndia’smiddleclassescannotonlybeexplainedbyconspicuousconsumptionorstatusconsumption,butarealsodrivenbychangesinlivingarrangements,gender,andfamilyroles(Anantharaman2014).Pocketsofpro-environmentalexistamongtheemergingmiddle-classconsumersaswell—someoutofenvironmentalconcernandapro-environmentalidentity,someratherforlifestylereasonsandtosignalanewstatusorposition(FigureA3).Middle-classcyclistsinBangalore,forexample,explicitly“gogreen”withhighendbicyclesandexpensivegearasthisallowsthemtomaintainthedistinctiontolower-incomeclasses,evenifitisaratherdefensivedistinction(Anantharaman2017).AmongtheAsianmiddleclasses,mobilitynormsareasmuchinfluencedbyavailableinfrastructureandobjectivetraveltimesasbysubjectiveconvenience,comfort,safetyconcerns,andpossiblestatusperceptions.Acombinationofthesefactorsisresponsibleforthesuccessofride-hailingserviceslikeGrabCarorAngkasmotorcycleacrossSoutheastAsiainrecentyears(Chalermpongetal.2022).AsJavaid,Creutzig,andBamberg(2020)findintheirmetareviewontheadoptionoflowcarbontransportmodesglobally,individualsaremostmotivatedtoshifttransportmodesiftheyarewellinformed,ifpersonalnormsmatchlow-carbonmodeuse,and,mostimportantly,iftheyperceivetohavepersonalcontroloverdecisions.Perceptionsaboutcommontravelbehavior(descriptivesocialnorms),especiallyifsupportedbyperceivednormativebeliefsofothers(injunctivenorms),arehighlyinfluentialtosupportmodeshift.However,theoverallmarginofshiftasinducedbyindividualandsocialsettingsremainslimited.Instead,theinfrastructurefactorsexplainlargedifferencesinmodechoice.15Concerningenergyuse,RamakrishnanandCreutzig(2021)foundthat20%ofenergyconsumptionandwillingnesstopayforlowcarbonconsumptioncanbeascribedtostatuseffects.Theyanalysed53studiesinasystematicreview.InthePhilippines,socialstatusconsiderationsarenotasclearlyassociatedwithrisingcarbonemissionsfromtravelandenergyuse(Neveretal.2020;Table3).ThedifferencetoIndia,however,mayalsobebecauseofmeasurementofsocialstatusineachstudy.SociologicalqualitativestudiesfoundthatACspresentastatusgoodforsomefamiliesinthePhilippines;peoplemayrarelyswitchthemon,buthavethemmountedinawaythattheyarevisibletoneighborsandpassersby(Sahakian2014).Aspirationalconsumptionandcorrespondinglifestylesmayalreadystartaheadofincomechanges,amongthelower-incomeclassesor“floatingclasses”(Birdsalletal.2015)thatstillundergoperiodsofpoverty.Theempiricalevidenceforthistypeofconsumerbehaviorisnotentirelyclearthough.Floatingorstrugglingmiddle-classmembersmaybuyspecificstatusgoodsearly,attractedbyaspirationsandeasierpaymentmodels(e.g.,byinstalmentforacarorlargerasset).Possiblebackfiringeffectsonlivingstandardsandpovertyarenotyetfullyunderstood.Socialmobilitygoalsarestrongamongcertainsectionsofthemiddleclasses,witheducationandsocioeconomicupwardmobilityasprimarygoals(NeverandAlbert2021;NeubertandStoll2018).Forrecycling,statusandaspirationsplaylessofarolethansocialnormsandhabits.Theunder-oroverestimationofrecyclingnormsandhabitsofothersleadstoconsumerbehaviorthatisonlyallegedlyinlinewith“whateveryoneelsedoes”.Inafieldexperimentwith1,709middle-classhouseholdsinamunicipalityofLima(Peru),Fuhrman-Riebeletal(2022)foundthatrandomlycorrectingpeople’sbeliefscausallyraisedthewillingnesstosignuptotherecyclingprogram,butremindermessageswerethennecessarytoincreasetheactualrecyclingrate.Therefore,individuallevelbeliefupdatingcanexplainheterogeneousresponsestosocialnorminformation(Fuhrmann-Riebeletal.2022):socialnorminformationtreatmentseffectivelymotivatedpeopletosignuptotherecyclingprogramwhenpeopleinitiallyunderestimatedtheactualnorm(i.e.,morepeoplealreadyrecyclethantheythought),whilethereisnoeffectforthosewhooverestimateorarecorrectaboutit.Theauthorsfindthatthisholdsirrespectiveofwhetherthenormishighorlow,orwhetheritispresentedinastaticordynamicway.Analyzingbeliefsmayhelptounderstandwhytheeffectsizesofsocialnorminterventionsvaryconsiderablybetweenstudiesandwhytheymayworkinsome,butnotinothercontexts.16Second,alackofenvironmentalawarenesspresentsachallengeforsomeconsumersegmentsonly.Amongtherisingmiddleclasses,environmentalconcernandknowledge,asstatedinhouseholdsurveys,areatmidtohighlevels,comparabletoothermiddle-incomecountries.TheexampleofthePhilippinesshowsthis(FiguresA7–A8).Further,inthemostrecentroundoftheWorldValuesSurvey,amajorityofrespondentsinthePRC,Indonesia,Malaysia,Myanmar,thePhilippines,Singapore,andThailand4prioritizedtheenvironment,evenifitmeansslowingofeconomicgrowthandjoblosses(TableA2).Finally,anincreasingbodyofresearchisrevealingthatawareness-raisingcampaignsaloneoftenonlydonotleadtobehaviorchange(e.g.,Whitmarshetal.2021;Newelletal.2021;Seimetzetal.2016;KollmussandAgyeman2002).Further,theremayalsobeadifferencebetweengeneralenvironmentalconcernandknowledge,andspecificknowledgeandunderstandingofopportunitiesforactionorconsequencesofownactions,e.g.,ofsavingsontheelectricitybill.Socialscienceresearchdifferentiatesbetweenfinancialenergyliteracy;deviceenergyliteracy(energyconsumptionofthedevice);andactionenergyliteracy,i.e.,theabilitytojudgetheimpactofone’sownactionsonenergysavinginthehome(VandenBroek2019).InadiscretechoiceexperimentonenergylabelinginthePRCandtheNetherlands,Heetal.(2022)foundthatonlyenergyliteracy(knowledge)ondailyenergyusehadasignificantandpositiveeffectoncost-minimizingdecision,whereasbroaderknowledgeandattitudeswerenotsignificant.AmongthePhilippinemiddleclass,applianceswithanenergyefficiencyareparticularlyvaluedbypeoplewithenvironmentalconcernandknowledge.Aconcreteexplanationandunderstandingofenergylabelsandoftheimpactoftheproductontheenvironmentincreasetheprobabilityofconsumerchoiceforadevicewithahigherenergyefficiency(Kuhnetal.2022).Third,thesocalledknowledge/value–actiongapexistsamongAsianconsumersaswell.Thisphenomenonisgloballywell-documentedinarangeofenvironmentalpsychologystudies(e.g.,KollmussandAgyeman2002);itisaveryhumanfeaturetobeinconsistenttosomeextent.Someresearcherscallittheintention-actiongaptobemorepreciseintermsofpsychologicalconcept.InadditiontoourhouseholdsurveyamongthemiddleclassesinGhana,Peru,andthe4Herearetwostatementsthatpeoplesometimesmakewhendiscussingtheenvironmentandeconomicgrowth.Whichofthemcomesclosertoyourownpointofview?1.Protectingtheenvironmentshouldbegivenpriority,evenifitcausesslowereconomicgrowthandsomelossofjobs.2.Economicgrowthandcreatingjobsshouldbethetoppriority,eveniftheenvironmentsufferstosomeextent.17Philippines,wheretheknowledge/value-actiongapbecameapparent(Neveretal.2020),asurveyamongtheurbanmiddleclassesinVietNamalsoconfirmeditsexistence(deKoning2015).InthePRC,ahighdegreeofvariabilityexistsacrosssociodemographicgroups;andsurveysfoundbothaknowledge-actiongapandavalue-actiongap(e.g.,Andrews-SpeedandMa2016).Thus,ontheonehand,consumerswithinsufficientspecificknowledgeontheimpactoftheirbehaviorsandopportunitiestochangerequiresupport.Ontheotherhand,consumerswhoalreadyhavesufficientenvironmentalknowledgeandholdpro-environmentalvaluesneedguidance,incentives,andregulationtoovercomethegaptoaction.SectionIVelaboratesonopportunitiesforthis.Fourth,complexdecision-makingsituationswithmanystakeholdersmakeindividualbehaviorchangedifficult.Inhouseholdswithmanyhouseholdmembersorfirmswithmanyemployees,thetargetingofspecificmeasuresmaybechallenging;inconsistenciesofbehaviorsandreboundeffectsoccur.InoursurveyonenergysavingbehaviorsamongthemiddleclassesinGhana,Peru,andthePhilippines,statedcurtailmentbehaviorandenergyefficiencyinvestmentsbytherespondents(householdheadorpurchasedecision-maker)arelikelytonothavecorrelatedwithalowerelectricitybillbecauseofthebehaviorofotherhouseholdmembersandreboundeffects(Neveretal.2022).Similarly,CharlierandMartinez-Cruz(2020)foundintheirhouseholdsurveyinFrancethatenergysavinghabitsofhouseholdheadsdonotcompensateforenergy-intensivebehaviorsofotherhouseholdmembers.Fifth,theavailabilityandaffordabilityofalternativelow-carbonproductsandservicespresentsachallenge,especiallyinsmallertownsandruralareas.Thischallengeclearlylinkstotheproductionandsupplyside.Evensuccessfulenergyefficiencyprogramssuchastheminimumenergyperformancestandards(MEPS)andlabelingprograminIndiastillstrugglewithafullmarketpenetrationoflabelledproductsinruralareasandsmallertowns(NeverandKemp2017).InthestudybydeKoningetal.(2015),thesurveyedurbanmiddleclassesinVietNamfounditchallengingtoputsustainableconsumptionintentionsintopracticebecauseofalackofknowledgeandmoney(availabilitychallenge)andalackofsupportstructures(e.g.,opportunitiessuchasrecyclingsystem,trustworthyecolabels).ThesechallengesarelikelytobesimilarinotherAsiancountries.18Forpolicyplanning,thesevariouschallengesimplythatamoresystematiclinkingofdemandandsupply-sidepoliciestounleashavirtuouscycleofsustainableconsumptionandproductionisrequired.Thechallengeliesinidentifyingsuitablepolicypackagesandgettingthesequenceofmeasuresrightforeachsector,whilemanagingsubnationalinequalitiesofconsumptionandemissiontrendsinlinewiththegoalofatimelyandjusttransition.IV.KEYOPPORTUNITIESEMANATINGFROMCONSUMERCHANGEINANETZEROTRANSITIONConsumersaresituatedinanevolvingnormenvironment.Policies,infrastructure,andmarketopportunitiesshapechoices.Thus,changingthedecisioncontextandevolvingsocialnormsmeanschangingconsumerbehavior.Thispresentsatremendousopportunity,especiallyasbothglobalproductionandconsumptionhubswillbelocatedinAsiainthecomingdecade.Theappropriatesequenceofmeasurestosupportthereapingofopportunitiesdependsonthesector.Generally,severalco-benefitsoflow-carbon,sustainableconsumptiononcurrentlocalproblemscanbeidentified(IPCC2022;Creutzigetal.2018):health,airpollution,grossdomesticproduct(GDP),andtimelossesbecauseoftrafficjams,energysecurity(lessdemandduringpeaktimessecuresoverallgridstability,forexample),andfreedcapitalforconsumersbecauseofenergysavings.Additionally,thefollowingsectoralopportunitiesforeconomicdevelopmentfromaconsumershifttolowcarbon,sustainableconsumptioncouldarise(referalsotoBox2onjobandeconomicgrowthopportunities;IPCC[2022];Malerba,Never,andAltenburg[2020]adaptedtoAsia;AltenburgandRodrik[2017]):(i)Low-carbontechnologies:greenair-conditioners,electricvehicles(ifelectricitysourcedfromrenewableenergy),solarphotovoltaicforhomes,andlightemitting-diodes(LEDs).(ii)Newservices/sharingecono.my:coolingasaservice,repairandreuseservicesforvariousgoods,sharingplatforms(forride-sharing,positiveeffectdependsonwhatkindofbehaviorisreplaced).(iii)Refurbedandremanufacturedproducts/circulareconomy,e.g.,electronics,plasticbricks,lightweightmachineryparts,andautomotiveparts.19(iv)Low-carbonbuildingsandconstruction:reusablematerials,solarpanelinstallation,naturalventilationandcooling,butsplitincentivechallenge(landlord-tenant),developmentofoftenvoluntarygreenbuildingcodesassuchunlikelytobesufficientasvaluechainsinthewholeconstructionsectorneedtochange.Box2:PossibleGrowthandJobOpportunitiesEmanatingfromRisingConsumerIncomeInAsia’slow-incomecountriesliketheLaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublicorCambodia,positivelocaleconomicdevelopmenteffectsofmiddleclassconsumptioncanbemainlyexpectedfor(i)non-tradeables;(ii)goodsthatarecostlytotrade(bulky,perishable);and(iii)tradeableswithlowentrybarriersandlimitedeconomiesofscale.Thetablebelowgivessomesectoralexamples.ForAsia’smiddle-incomeandhigh-incomecountriesthatarehighlycompetitiveintrade(e.g.,thePeople’sRepublicofChinaandtheRepublicofKorea),newmarketsandeconomicdevelopmentopportunitiesfromrisingmiddleclassdemandcoulddevelopacrossbothtradeableandnon-tradeablegoods.Manyofthesecanbegreenorlow-carbonproducts.TradeableNon-tradeableorCostlytoTradeTransportCars,electricbuses,trains,bicyclesRepairservices,drivingservices/staffHousing/construction(Green)steel,aluminium,glass,tiles,furnitureUrbanplanning,architectureandmaintenance,cement,pre-fabricatedlow-costhouses,bricks,clay,cobblestonesDiversifiedfoodandbeveragesHighlyprocessed/frozenUnprocessedandsimpleprocessed,e.g.,localbeerbrandsFinancialservicesOffersbyglobalinsurancecompaniesChangesoflocalbanks,localinsurances,taxandinvestmentcounsellorsSubstantialnewmarketopportunitiesinspecifictradeableproductswitheconomiesofscalecouldalsoarisebecauseoftheglobalproductionhubssituatedinAsiancountries,fosteredbychangedmiddleclassconsumptionpatterns.Thesecoulddevelopinthecoolingsector;forexample,especiallyforairconditionerswithnaturalrefrigerantsasthemajorityofairconditionerproducersarelocatedinAsia.Here,apolicypushandawarenessraisingamongconsumersisrequiredtosupportdemandandmakethecaseforeconomiesofscaleforcompanies.Additionally,opportunitiesforlocalinnovativesustainableproducts,suchasreused,refurbed,orremanufacturedproducts(e.g.,electronics,plasticbricks,andlightweightmachineryparts)exist.Becauseofthevastnumberofinfluentialfactorsinmarketdevelopmentanddynamics,scientificallyvalid,exactfiguresprojectingpotentialemploymentareunavailable.Sources:Malerba,Never,andAltenburg(2020),adaptedtoAsia;AltenburgandRodrik(2017).20ThemarkettrendsinthesefieldsarediscussedinmoredetailinotherbackgroundstudiestotheAsianDevelopmentOutlookThematicReport2023.Twoexampleswillbediscussedinmoredetailherethatshowhowfuturemiddle-classconsumerpreferencesanddemandwillcreateandimpactlowcarbonmarketdevelopment.Tousetheopportunitiesinthegreencoolingmarket,ashiftinconsumerpreferencesisrequiredwhich,inturn,putpressureonmanufacturerstomakegreenACsavailableinallAsiancountries.Currently,thisisnothappeningasmanufacturersdeemdemandforgreenACstoolow,e.g.,inthePhilippines,preferringtooffercheaper,lessenergy-efficientandlessclimate-friendlymodels.ThepositiveimpactsofACownershipanduseonhumandevelopmentarefairlyclear.Studieshavefoundbetterhealth(sleep,diseasecontrol)andhigherproductivityincooledenvironments(Khoslaetal.2021;Bareccaetal.2016;Kjellstrom2016).AgrowingACmarketislikelytohavepositiveemploymenteffectsonlocaltechnicianandserviceenterprises.Moreover,manylivelihoodsdependonformalandinformalscrapdealingandrecyclingofe-waste,includingACs(Alam2021).Therefore,anemphasistoforegothepurchaseofACsshouldnotbetheprimarypoliticalstrategyintropicalmiddle-incomecountries,butratheramarkettransitiontogreenACs.GreenACscanbeenergyefficientandcontainnatural,climate-friendlyrefrigerantssuchasR290.ThailandisafrontrunnerinthetransitiontogreencoolinginAsia,bothforroomACsandrefrigeration.Thisincludestheproductionofgreencoolingtechnologiesthatusenaturalrefrigerantsandpromoteenergyefficiency,whichareexpectedtodominatethedomesticrefrigerationmarketin2025.Currently,theuseofrefrigerationandairconditioningstillaccountsforabout50%ofThailand’selectricityconsumption.Therefore,thecoolingtransitionisvitaltoachievetheNationallyDeterminedContributionsundertheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeandtophaseouthydrochlorofluorocarbons(HCFCs)partiallyuntil2030andcompletelyby2040,asagreedundertheKigaliAmendmenttotheMontrealProtocol.Thailandhasalsopilotedfinancingmechanismstargetedatthecoolingsectorandenhancedthecapacitydevelopmentinfrastructurefortechniciansinthesector.21Middle-classconsumerswilllikelyberesponsibleforasubstantialshareoftheroomACmarketinthecomingdecades,alongwithcompaniesandhospitalitybusinesses.Middle-classmemberspurchaseeitherneworusedACs,asparticularlyaspiringandlower-middleincomeclassmembersmaybelookingforalowerpricedunit(Never2022).Withtheprogressofglobalwarming,thermalcomfortnormsandneedsarelikelytobecomeamajorconcernofmiddle-classconsumers.Coolingneedsandpreferencescanbeasmuchculturallyandevenindustry-drivenasaphysicalnecessitybecauseofheatwaves(MazzoneandKhosla2021).Peoplecanchoose‘thermallyuncomfortable’clothingbecauseofsocialnormsorstatus.ForsomehouseholdsinthePhilippines,forexample,owninganAChasbecomeastatusgood,evenifisrarelyswitchedon(Sahakian2014).Alocallyembeddedsocialconstructionofcomfortandcoolinghabitsexiststhatdemand-sideinterventionsinthecoolingsectorwouldneedtotakeintoaccount.Fromacarbonfootprintperspective,bothpurchasedecisionsofACsandtheuseofcoolingtechnologiesorpassivecoolingoptionarecrucial.AvailablelifecycleassessmentsforthePRC,Indonesia,andIndiahavefoundthatenergyandclimateimpactsarehighestduringtheusestageoftheAC,notduringmanufacturing,transport,orsales(Gupta2021;Karkouretal.2020;Zhao2015).Thisisprimarilybecauseoftheshareoffossilfuelsintheelectricitymix,confirmingthefindingsoflifecycleassessmentsintheUnitedStates(Li2015;Shahetal.2008).Importantly,notonlytheuserbehavioritself(e.g.,activeuseduration,leavingtheAConwhennotintheroom),butalsotheelectricityrequiredtokeeptherefrigerantcoolwhiletheunitisidlecontributeuptoathirdofthelifecycleemissionsinhotcountries(RossandCheah2016).Passivecoolingoptionsincludebuildingdesignfeatures(eitherpreventingheatfromenteringindoorsorremovingheatfromthebuildingwithnaturalcooling),smartspaceusebyoccupants,andadjustingclothingorusingshades.Interestingly,traditionalandancientbuildingdesigninAsiaoftenoffersubstantialpassivecooling.Policymakersandtechnicalcooperationagenciesaroundtheworldtendtofocuseitherontheactivephase-inofnewgreentechnologiesorontheend-of-life(e-waste)stage,neglectingthestageinbetween.Thedecisionsif,when,andhowtospeedupthephase-outofoldappliancesdeservesmoreattention.Inmanylow-incomeandmiddle-incomecountries,largesecondhandmarketsforusedappliancessuchasACsexist.Apartfromhealthandsafetyrequirementsandguidelinesone-wastethatgenerallyencouragereuseoftechnologies,moreconcreteregulationsonusedappliancessuchasACsaremissinginmanylow-incomeandmiddle-22incomecountriesthisfar.Fromanenergyandclimateperspective,takingoldACsoffthemarketasquicklyaspossibleseemsdesirable(DeKleineetal.2011).However,amaterialresourceandlifecyclelensmaychangethepicture.Further,socialquestionsofaffordabilityinlow-incomeandmiddle-incomecountriesrathercallforprolongeduseofcheaper,repairedACs.Managingthiscomplexityrequirespoliticalattention.Theopportunitiesinthecirculareconomy,especiallyconcerningreuseandrecyclingtocloseresourceloops,dependalotonconsumerbehavior.Consumerbehaviormaynotbeconsistentacrosspolicyfields.Ifpositivebehavioralspilloverhappens,thenratherinlow-costdomainssuchasrecycling(LanziniandThogersen2014).Whileseveralsurveysandexperimentalstudiesconfirmthisinconsistencyofbehavioralspillovertootherdomains(Geigeretal.2021;Makietal.2019),alotofco-benefitsfromreuseandrecyclingexistforanetzerotransition.Fromanetzeroperspective,reusingmaterialsandrecyclingpresentalow-cost,easyentrytopro-environmentalbehaviorfortheconsumerandmayhelptofosterabroadertransitiontoacirculareconomy.Themajorityoftheclimatechangemitigationeffectcomesaboutatwastemanagementplantsandlandfills.Emissionreductionsbyavoidingorreducingtheamountofwasteincinerationcanbesubstantial,evenifmanywasteplantsnowconcerttheincineratedwastetoelectricity.Theefficiencyofthesemechanicalrecyclingplantspresentsanotherchallenge.InGermany,forexample,ofthe5.35milliontonsofpost-consumerplasticpackagingwasteproducedin2019,only19%weremechanicallyrecycledaspost-consumerrecyclatesforplasticproduction.Themajority(i.e.,61%)ofpost-consumerplasticpackagingwastearecombustedforelectricityanddistrictheating,turningchemicalrecyclingintoaviableoptionforspeedingupanetzerotransition,alsoforAsia(Leeetal.2021b).Intheabsenceoffullyfunctioningwastecollectionandrecyclingsystems,middle-classconsumerscanbesensitizedtoreuseproducts,toavoidunsustainableproductswithunnecessarypackaging,forexample,andtousetake-backoptionsthatsupermarketsandproducersarebeginningtooffervoluntarily.Supermarketsandsmallcornershops(“bodegas”)canplayakeyroleinpartlyfunctioningwasteandrecyclinggovernancesystems,asresearchonPeruhasshown(BorasinoandFuhrmann-Riebel2021).Smallcornershopshaveclosecustomerrelationsandmayhelptoraiseawarenessandinfluencenewrecyclingnorms,whereassupermarketshavethepossibilitytostepinasapowerfulactorbetweenproducersinconsumers,providingsomerecyclinginfrastructureaswell.23Regardingsharingeconomyoptions,thesepracticeshavetheopportunitytosupporttheshiftofaspirationsfromowningtousinggoodsorservices.Reboundeffectsmayoccur,however,asfreedincomefromsharingmaybeusedtoinvestinothercarbon-intensivegoods(IPCC2022,Chapter5).Finally,amidtermtolong-termopportunitythatalreadyneedstostartnowconcernschangingconsumernormsandaspirationsforlow-carbon,sustainableconsumptionandproductiontobecomethe“newcool”.Asmentionedabove,already17%–20%changeinconsumerchoicescanbeatippingpointformarketstructuresandacommittedgroupof25%canbeenoughtochangesocialconvention(Newelletal.2021;Ottoetal.2020;Centolaetal.2018).TheexpertsurveybyOttoetal.(2020)identifiesnormsandvaluesasoneareainwhichsocialtippingpointsarepossibletooccurintheneartomidfuture,alongwithenergyproductionsystems,humansettlements,thefinancialsystem,andeducationsystems.Toreachasustainableconsumptiontippingpoint,consumershavethepowertochoose(e.g.,buy)andbehave(e.g.,travel)differentlybythemselves,butsuppliersandpolicyalsoneedtomakeaminimumofsustainableoptionsavailableaswell.TogenerallychangestatusconsumptionandsocialnormsprevalentamongAsia’smiddleclasses,beliefupdatingandbehavioralinterventionstofosterclimate-friendlyaspirationsofwell-beingasanewnormpresentsoneofseveraloptions.Otheroptionsincludeactivelyusingeducation,especiallyofchildren,andinfluencersinsocialmediatostarttransportingnewgreentrends.Intergenerationalinfluencemeansthetransmissionofinformation,beliefs,attitudes,andskillsfromonegenerationtothenextwithinafamily(Mooreetal.2001).Themajorityofstudiesfindsthisinfluenceflowingfromparentstochildrenoradolescents,namelybyobservableactionsbytheparentsandbychildren’sperceptionofparentalexpectations(GronhojandThogersen2012).Reverseorreciprocalfamilyinfluence(fromchildrentoparents)hasbeenfoundfortheuseofnewtechnologiesandenvironmentalissuesdiscussedatschool(Mooreetal.2001;Ballantyneetal.2001),butthereishardlyanyresearchonenergysaving.Itappearsthatadolescentsacquireenergyusebehaviortoasignificantdegreebyobservingwhattheirparentsdointhehomesphere,adaptingtothefamilynormsandrecreatingtheirparents’usepatterns.Thesecorrelationsarestrongerinsharedspacesofthehomethaninprivatecontexts(WallisandKlöckner2020).Adifferencebetweenverbalrulesandactionsperformedbyparentsseemtoexist(GronhojandThogersen2012).Theidentificationof24intergenerationalinfluenceconnectedtofamilycommunicationandnormscanberelevantinseveralenvironmentaldomains,forinstancethedurationofACuseandthetemperaturesettingbydifferenthouseholdmembers.Acombinationofguidancebypolicy,regulationsoftheproducersidethatshiftmarketsupplies,aswellasinvestmentsininfrastructureandawarenessraisingwillberequired.Changingsocialnormsandassociatedconsumerhabitsisamidtermtolong-termprocess(Newelletal.2021).V.CONCEPTUALFRAMEWORK:HOWTOLINKBEHAVIORCHANGE,CONSUMPTION,ANDSUPPLY-SIDEINVESTMENTSINANETZEROTRANSITIONGreeningonlythesupplysidewillnotbesufficienttoreachanetzerotransition.Theappropriatesequenceofsupplyordemandfocusandrespectivemeasuresdependsonthesector.Changingconsumerdemandandusingthepositiveimpactofconsumerchoiceforlowcarbonproductsandservicesmayberequiredinsomesectorstopushanetzerotransition(e.g.,cooling),whereasinothers,theinfrastructure(e.g.,forpublictransport)andmarketmayneedtobeavailablefirst.Inmanycases,policymeasuresrequireapreparatoryphasethatpreparesthegroundbyloweringthecostsofmeasures,communicatingthecostsandbenefitstocitizens,andbuildingcoalitionsforpolicies,thusreducingpoliticalresistance(Mecklingetal.2017).Unleashingavirtuouscycleofmiddleclassconsumptionchange,production,andinfrastructurechangetoadvanceanetzerotransitionrequiresthesystematictargeting,linking,andsequencingofpolicymeasuresaimedatsustainableconsumptionandproduction.Middleclassbehaviorchangepresentsbothastartingpointandapolicygoalinthisrespect.Themiddleclassescanexertconsiderablepressureonpolicymakersandbusinessestoprovidesustainableproductsandinfrastructure,alreadywithsmallbutconsistentchangesinconsumptionchoices(startingpointconsumerpressure).Inparallel,policyneedstoprovidethecontextconditionsformiddle-classconsumerstoovercomewell-knownknowledge/value–actiongapsinpro-environmentalbehavioranddrivedeeper,costliertransformationsinlifestyles(goal-changed25consumerbehavior).Arguably,boththestartingpointandthegoalrelatedtoconsumerbehaviorarenecessaryelementsforasuccessfulnetzerotransition(Figure1).Currentconsumer-orienteddemandsidepoliciesarefragmented,piecemeal,andtooweaktodriveademand-sidenetzerotransition(IPCC2022Chapter5,highevidence,highagreement).Currentproductionandsupply-sidepoliciesinlow-incomeandmiddle-incomecountriesusuallyfocusonenvironmentalandeconomicgoalsontheproducersideonly,startingwithlowhangingfruitandneglectingconsumersandthedemand-sidebeyondawareness-raisingprograms.Asystematicextensionandlinkingofthetwocanbeconducivetobothanetzerotransitionandbroaderdevelopmentgoals.Ingeneral,thespecificgoalsofeachpoliticalmeasurethataimatsustainableconsumptionorproductionneedtobecomplementary,pullingorpushingconsumersandproducersinthesamedirectionwithoutoffsettingpositiveeffectsofothermeasures.Dependingonthesector,thesequenceofmeasuresmayneedtobereviewedandadjusted.Hard-to-changebehaviorswilllikelyrequiremoretimeandacombinationofdifferenttypesofmeasures,whereaseasy-to-change,low-costbehaviorsmaybesufficienttoachievewithwell-targetedfewinstrumentsorinvestments.Intermsofthecombinationofpoliciesandmeasures,bothregulatoryandfinancialinstrumentsaswellasbehavioralinsightstoolscanbeuseful.Forpolicyplanning,evaluating,andreflecting(i)specificpolicygoals;(ii)thetypeofimpactonthenetzerotransition;(iii)thetypeofconsumertargeted(household,withinhousehold,employees,wholeenterprises);(iv)typeoftargetbehavior(degreeofcomplexityandcostforconsumertochange);(v)typeofconducivecontextrequiredtoachievedeeperbehaviorchange(e.g.,marketstructure,infrastructure);and(vi)possiblesafeguards,e.g.,toavoidreboundeffectcouldbeuseful.Figure1:RelevanceofConsumerPressureforChangetoaNetZeroTransitionSource:Author’sillustration.26AsAsiaisheterogeneousintermsofclimatechangeimpacts,economiccapabilities,anddevelopmentpathways,developingaone-size-fits-allapproachisnotpossible.ThenextsectiongivessomeexamplesofpotentialpolicypackagesandsectionVIprovidesanin-depthcasestudy.A.PolicyPackageExamplesAsthisreportfocusesontheemergingmiddleclasses,policypackagesforexpandingenergyaccessandensuringdecentlivingstandardsforthepoorareimportant,butwillnotbediscussedindetail.TheIPCCsuggestsclusteringdemand-sidepoliciesaccordingtoan“Avoid–Shift–Improve”framework.Arguably,fordevelopingAsia,thismayneedtobecomplementedbya“Remain”-option,forinstanceconcerningpublictransportoftheaspiringmiddleclasses.Reboundeffectsneedtobeanticipatedaswell.Table3presentssomeexamplesfortheenergyandtransportsectors.Table3:ExamplesforAvoid-Shift-Improve-RemainPolicyPackagesSectorAvoidShiftImproveRemainTransportIntegratetransportandland-useplanningTele-workingCompactcitiesModalshiftfromcartowalking,cycling,publictransitLightweightvehiclesElectricvehiclesFuel/emissionstandardsAttractive,efficientpublictransportsystemwithintegratedfaresystemEnergy(cooling)Fosterpassivecooling(e.g.,inbuildingconstruction,individualnorms)Longerlifetimeofdevicesandrepairstandards(balancedphase-out)SmallerdwellingsizeHigherstandardtemperaturesofairconditionersArchitecturaldesign(e.g.,ventilation,buildingmaterials/traditionaldesignsthatsupportcoolenvironment)GreenairconditionersUsenaturalventilation,lightclothingalsoinofficesEnergy(lighting)Occupancysensors,lightingcontrolsArchitecturaldesignswithmaximaldaylightuseLight-emittingdiodes(LEDs)Sources:IPCC(2022)(Chapter5),slightlyadapted;Never(2022)forcooling.Concerningenergysavinginhouseholdsandenergyefficiencymorebroadly,MEPScombinedwithenergyefficiencylabelspresentthekeypolicyinmostAsiancountries.JapanhasdeviatedfromtheMEPSwithits“toprunner”program.Eventhosecountriesthathavelaggedwith27introducingstandardsandlabels(e.g.,CambodiaandtheLaoPDR)arenowinconcreteplanningandimplementationphase.FortheEuropeanUnion,Schleichetal.(2021)estimatedthattheEuropeanUnionMEPSandlabelsprogramincreasedtheshareofcoldappliances(fridges,freezers)withthehighestenergyefficiencygradeby15%–38%between2007and2017.ForAsia,totheauthors’knowledge,nosuchevaluationsareavailable.InIndia,thewidespreaddiffusionofMEPSandlabelsinruralareasandsmalltownsremainschallenging,inspiteoftheoverallsuccessfulprogram(NeverandKemp2017).Simplifiedlabelsthatexplainenvironmentalimpactstoconsumersmoreclearlyhavebeenshowntoincreaseconsumerchoiceforhigherrateddevices(Kuhnetal2022).Toincreasetheeffectivenessoflabelsintermsofpurchasingdecisionsanduseofdevices,programswouldneedtobecomplementedbyawareness-raisingandbehavioral-insightsprogramsthatincludeallhouseholdmembers(e.g.,real-timeandcomparativefeedbackonenergyuse),children’seducationinschool.Informationandawarenessonmaintenanceandoptionsforperformancecontracts(e.g.,viaenergyservicecompanies),effectsofuserbehavior,alternativeoptions,andrepairandreusestandards(forsecondhanddevices)wouldbeuseful.Ontheproducerside,aratchetingofMEPSovertime,anincreaseincontrolandcompliance(includingfees),(illicit)tradecontrols,thedevelopmentandharmonizationofrepairandreusestandards,aswellaspublicprocurementtosupportpotentiallyslowenergyservicecompanymarketsorlowerinitialcostbarriersfornew,efficientdevicescouldcomplementpolicypackages.Forthetransportsector,low-carboninfrastructureandpublictransportdevelopmentwouldneedtobeprioritized(sequenced),butawareness-raisingcampaignsandbehavioralinterventionstochangenormsandaspirationstoremaininpublictransportoracceptrenewable-energybasedelectricvehiclecarsharingcouldstartnow.Subsidiesforpurchasingelectricvehiclesrequirecarefultargetingastheymayhaveinframarginaleffects,i.e.,supportinghigh-incomehouseholdswhohadtheintentiontobuyanelectricvehiclealsowithoutsubsidy(e.g.,GillinghamandStock2018).5Here,localpolicymakerswouldneedtoevaluatetheenergysourcesforthelocalelectricvehiclemarket,thesizeandtypeoftargetedconsumersegment,andthedesignofgreenmanufacturingpolicies(toavoidcancelingoutof5Totheauthors’knowledge,theelectricvehiclemarketandtheroleofsubsidiestostimulatedemandarethetopicsofanotherAsianDevelopmentOutlook2023backgroundpaper.Therefore,thispaperrefrainsfromanin-depthanalysis.28emissions/mitigationinproductionandconsumption).Forinstance,inafossilfuel-basedcountrywithsmallmiddleandupperclassesandhighlycongestedurbanareas,subsidiesforelectricvehiclesmayhavelessereffectsforanetzerotransitionthaninacountrywithahighershareofrenewableenergies,manageableurbancongestion,andasizeablegrowingmiddleclasseswithstrongcarpurchaseintentions.Amorein-depthdiscussionofthetransportsectorisinsectionVI.B.BehavioralInsightsasaComplementaryToolinPolicyPackagesBehavioralinsightspresentacollectionofknowledgeaboutthefunctioningofhumandecision-makingaswellasasetofchoicearchitecturetools.Inenergypolicy,forexample,instrumentalapplicationsofchoicearchitecture(nudges)haveprevailedthisfar,forexampleassalientframing,defaults,andfeedbackonenergyuse(Dosmukhambetova2020;AndorandFels2018).Behavioralinsightscanuncoverexplanationswhysingleinstruments,butalsowhycombinations(packages,layeringorpatchingovertime)workorfailinaspecificcontext(CapanoandHowlett2020).Thiscanbehelpfulbothbywayofconductingrandomizedcontrolledtrialsandbroader,mixedmethodspolicyevaluationsthattakebothbehavioralandnon-behavioralaspectsintoaccount.Understandingwhyatargetbehaviorisnotperformed,e.g.,theuptakeofefficientcookstoves,mayhavesocial,cultural-historical,ortechnicalreasons.Theineffectivenessofaparticularinstrument,e.g.,incentivesforenergymanagementsystemsinfirms,mayalsobebecauseofdistortiveeffectsbyanotherinstrument,e.g.,fossilfuelsubsidies.Behavioralinsightsstudiescanprovideavalue-addedinuncoveringhowandwhyrecipientsdealwithseveralregulationsandincentivestargetingthemsimultaneously,especiallywheninsightsbeyondeconomicsandpsychologyaretakenintoaccount.Thiscouldimprovethecoherenceandeffectivenessofpolicymixes.Inenergypolicy,behavioraltoolshavebeenprimarilyappliedtofosterenergyefficiencyandenergysaving(AndorandFels2018).Farfewerinterventionshavesoughttoincreaseresidentialuptakeofrenewableenergybychangingthedefaultelectricityprovider.Themostwidelyusedbehavioralinsightsaresocialnorminterventionstoincreaseresidentialenergysaving,commitment/goalsetting,reminders,andreal-timefeedbackonelectricityuse.29Effectsofthesenudgesinenergypolicyvary.Defaultshavethebiggesteffect(HummelandMädche2019;AndorandFels2018),butaretechnicallymoredifficulttoimplementinenergysystemsthanotherinterventions.Socialnorminterventionsreduceresidentialenergyconsumptionbetween1.2%and30%comparedtothecontrolgroup(AndorandFels2018).Intheirmeta-reviewofrandomised,controlledtrialsonclimatemitigationinhouseholds,Nisetal.(2020)findonlysmalleffects:6.6%probabilityofbenefit6forenergyinterventionsgenerallyandonly2.5%forthepurchaseofenergy-efficientappliances.Similarly,Buckley(2020)onlyfindsanaveragetreatmenteffectof<2%onresidentialelectricityconsumptioninhermeta-review.Anincreasingnumberofstudiesnowreplicatesthe“Opower”study(Allcott2011)onsocialnormcomparisonandfeedbackonelectricityconsumptioninlow-incomeandmiddle-incomecountries,alsowithvaryingeffectsized(e.g.,Mietal.2019).Foraneffective,comprehensive,andlong-lastingapplicationofbehavioralinterventionsassingleenergypolicyinstruments,twochallengesremain:first,thehighvariationinsignificanteffectsizescoupledwithapotentialpublicationbiasofonlysuccessfulinterventions(HummelandMädche2019).Thismakesblueprintingacrosscountriesandmicrocontextsdifficult.Acrosspolicyfields,only62%ofnudgeinterventionshaveasignificanteffect(HummelandMädche2019).Second,thepersistenceofbehavioralinterventioneffectsovertimearestilllargelyunclear.Theeffectsofthesocialnormcomparisoninthe“Opower”homeenergyreportsintheUnitedStatesarerelativelypersistent,decliningatarateof10%–20%peryear(AllcottandRogers2014).Incontrast,interventionsonclimatemitigationinhouseholdsarehardlypersistentbeyondtheinterventionperiodatall(Nisetal.2020).Thefollowingfactorsincreasethelikelihoodforeffectivebehavioralinterventions(Box3).Ahighereffectivenessofbehavioralinsightscanbeexpectedwhenusingtheminthedesignofapolicypackagethatconsistsalsoofregulations,financialincentives,andinvestmentsininfrastructureandthechoicecontextfortheconsumer.Behavioralinsightstoolstendtobemoreeffectiveincontextswhenbehaviorscanbetracedbackclearlytoanindividual(orkeyresponsiblepersoninthehousehold),whenthenumberofbarrierstobehaviorchangeislimited,andalsoifindividualcostsarelowand/orpro-environmentalmotivationisgenerallyexistingalready.6Probabilitythattheinterventionwillpromoteclimatemitigationbehaviorintheexperimentalgroupcomparedtothecontrolgroup.30Wasteseparationandrecycling,forexample,usuallycomesdowntooneortwokeyindividualsinthehome.Iftheconsumerisactuallyalargerentitysuchasenterprisesorahospital,targetingindividualswithintheseentitiesviabehavioralinsightsmayremovesomebarriers,butachangeoftheoverallcompanylikelyrequiresadditionalothermeasures(e.g.,financial,regulatory)becauseofthehighcomplexityandmultitudeofbarrierstochange.Finally,pro-environmentalbehaviorchangeinterventionstendtobemostsuccessfulamongconsumerswhoalreadyhavesomeenvironmentalconcern,butmaystrugglewiththeknowledge/value-actiongap,ormorespecific,intention-actiongap.Asdiscussedabove,thisisacommonhumanphenomenonacrosstheworldwithenvironmentalconcernandgoodintentionsnottranslatingtoactionintheend.Box3:HowtoApplyBehavioralInsightstoChangeConsumerBehavior“HandsOn”Behavioralinsightsarenosilverbullet;everysolutionneedstobeadaptedtothecircumstancesandneedsofthegivencontext.Fourstepsmakeasuccessfulinterventionmorelikely.First,anunderstandingofthestatusquobyaskingthequestionswhat,who,how,andwhy:(i)Whatexactlyistheissue?Forexample,ahouseholdconsumesalotofenergyorawasteseparationplantreceivesmixedwaste,andonlyafractioncanberecycled.Butthisisnotdetailedenough.Whichmaterialsexactlyareanissueinthatwaste,foodwaste,gardenwaste,orhospitalwaste?(ii)Whosebehaviorcausestheissue?Again,e.g.,”households”isnotenough!Aspecificgroupofhouseholds?Whointhehousehold?Whotakestherelevantdecision(e.g.,thatahouseholdstartstoseparatewasteorsaveenergy),andwhoimplementsit?Isitafemaleormalemember,children,orhouseholdemployees?(iii)Thisleadsustothehow:Howdotheycurrentlybehave(e.g.,treattheirwasteoruse/saveenergy),andhowdoweneedthemtodoit?(iv)Andlastbutnotleast:whydotheydowhattheydo?Andwhywouldtheydowhatwewantthemto?Ifwecannotforcethem(andwerarelycan,orshould),weneedtoofferabetteroption.Convenience,societalorpersonalvalues,cost,availabilityofoptions,andknowledgeareallfactorsthatplayakeyrolehere.(v)Ineachoftheabovequestionsweneedtoprioritize.Whatisourmostpressingissue?Whichgroupisitmainlycausedby?Whichistheirmainbarrierormotivationforchange?Who/whichbarrieriseasiesttoaddress?31Second,basedontheaboveanswers,targetedinterventionsneedtobedeveloped.Thesecanbechangesintheinfrastructure,institutionsorcommunicationmeasures,forexample.Behavioralsciencesgiveussomegeneralguidelinesofhowtodevelopsuchinterventions.Forexample,anewbehaviorshouldbemade:(i)Simple,thatis,easytounderstand,withshortcommunication,simplerules,minimizeadditionalhassle,maximizeconvenience(withaneyeoncosts).(ii)Attractive,intermsofmoney,butalsononmonetary(e.g.,generatinga“warmglow”fordoingsomethinggood;creatingtrustthatwaste,onceseparated,willactuallyberecycled;makeitfunthroughgamification,etc.)(iii)Social.Humanstendtofollowthebehaviorofothers,especiallytheirpeers,andwanttolookgoodinfrontofthem.Further,ifgiventhechoice,mostofusactuallywanttocooperate.Third,pilotingtheinterventionandadaptingitaccordingtotheresultsofthepilotiscrucial.Sometimesthisbringssurprisingresults,whenthingsweweresuretoworksuddenlydonot,orotherswejusttriedbecausetheywouldbesocost-effective,butdidnothavemuchhopesfor,turnouttobequiteimpactful.Onlyinthefourthstep,theup-scalingofsuccessfulsolutionshappens.Sources:GermanInstituteofDevelopmentandSustainability(IDOS)experienceinvariousprojects;andPegels(2022).VI.CASESTUDY:LINKINGCONSUMERBEHAVIORCHANGEANDINFRASTRUCTUREINVESTMENTSINTHETRANSPORTSECTORINTHEPHILIPPINESUrbanizationandrural-urbanmigrationratesarehighinAsia,strainingtransportsystems.ManyurbancentersacrossAsiaareatthelimitsofcongestionandairpollutionalready.Withsoaringmobilitydemandofthemiddleclasses,futuresustainabletransportsystemdevelopmentrequiresattractiveinfrastructuredevelopmentsthatmotivatethemiddleclassestoforegocarpurchaseandfrequentuse.Therefore,transportpolicymakersneedtoaddressbothsupplyanddemand:(i)multimodalinfrastructuresystemsthataddressesmiddleclassneeds,and(ii)managingmiddle-classconsumerbehavior.Thissectiondiscussestheseissues32bywayofthePhilippineexample,summarizinginsightsfromamiddle-classhouseholdsurvey,focusgroupdiscussions,andexpertinterviews.Box4:KeyPointsforTransformingMobilityinthePhilippinesThetransportsectorhasthehighestmitigationpotentialandoffersclearco-benefitsforhealthandairpollution,especiallyinurbancenters.Bothsustainablemasstransitoptionsforthepoorandattractiveoptionsforthemiddleclassesarerequired.Publictransportisused,especiallybythelowermiddleclasses,butconvenient,modernoptionsstillappealtouppermiddleclassaswell.Carbonintensityoftransportpatternsincreases,especiallyamonguppermiddleclasses.Behaviorchangeinterventionsformiddleclassesneedtocomplementdemand-sidemanagement(e.g.,changeofsocialnorms,statussymbols).Performance-basedcontractsforprivateoperatorscansupportthephysicalintegrationoftransportmodes,whileanintegratedinformationalandfaresystemwithstaggeredtariffscouldappealtobothmiddleclassandpoorerpartsofthepopulations.Source:Author.InmanyAsiancountries,urbanizationandrural–urbanmigrationcannotbematchedbycurrentinfrastructurecapacities.From1970to2017,thenumberofurbaninhabitantsintheregionincreasedfrom375millionto1.84billion.Theurbanizationrateisprojectedtorisefrom46%in2017to64%in2050(ADB2019).Witheverynewmigrantinacity,thereisalsoonemorepersonontheroadsintheneedoftravellingtotheworkplace,findajoborattendtogroceryandleisurepurposes.Becauseofthecurrentextensionandconfigurationofcitieswithclearlyseparateduses(residential,workplaces,commercialandleisure),thesetripscanoftenonlybeachievedusingmotorisedtravelmodes.CongestionandairpollutionpresentatremendouscosttoAsianeconomiesandtoindividualhealthandwell-beingalready.AccordingtotheAsianDevelopmentOutlook2019,MetroManila,KualaLumpur,andYangonCityrankasthemostcongestedcitiesinthe25developingcountriesinAsiasurveyed.Losttimeandhighertransportcostsbecauseofroadcongestionamounttoannualcostsbetween2%and5%ofGDP.MetroManilaaloneloses₱3.5billionperdaytocongestion,forexample.Eachyear,theregistrationratefornewvehiclesinMetroManilaincreasesbyabout7%,accordingtotheLandTransportationOffice.From2016to332018,thismeantanadditionofanother387,814vehiclestotheroads—manyofthemlikelytobelongtothegrowingmiddleclasses.Themobilitydemandofthegrowingmiddleclasses,includingcarownership,putsadditionalpressureontransportsystems.Formanymiddle-classfamilies,buyingacarpresentsamatterofsocialstatus,security,andconvenience.Further,travelandmobilityhavebecomeapartofnewlyacquiredlifestyles.TheautomotivemarketinAsiacountsasthefastest-growingmarketglobally,ledbythePRC,butalsoshowingstablegrowthratesacrosstheotherAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)countriesuntiltheCOVID-19pandemic(ASEANAutomotiveFederation).CarpurchasehasbecomemuchmoreaffordablebecauseoflowtaxpoliciesoncarimportationthatarepartoffreetradeagreementsforvehicleswithinASEAN.Theseallowforeasypaymentsystemsofferedtocustomers,i.e.,paymentbyinstalmentsatlowratesandlowdown-payments.OuranalysisforthePhilippinesshowsthatthisisanimportantfactorformanymiddle-classfamilieswhoareconsideringcarpurchase.Mobilitytrendsemanatingespeciallyfromthemiddleclassesarecurrentlynotmatchedbyinvestmentsinpublicinfrastructure,apartfrommajorinvestmentsinroadinfrastructureforprivatevehicles.Overall,Asiantransportsectorsrequire$8.4trillionininvestmentsupto2030forcountriestocontinueeconomicgrowth,eradicatepoverty,andrespondtoclimatechange(ADB2017,MeetingAsia’InfrastructureNeeds).Subregionaldifferencesexistaccordingtotherespectiveinfrastructurestock,levelofeconomicdevelopment,andgrowthprojections.Now,theGovernmentofthePhilippineshastheopportunitytoembarkonmultimodalinfrastructureplanningandpolicythatincludesdemand-sidemanagementofthemiddleclasses.Ontheonehand,economiceffectsoftheCOVID-19pandemichamperspoliticalleewayinthecomingyears.Ontheotherhand,economicrecoverycanbeboostedbypublicworksprogramsinsustainableinfrastructure.Amorepermanentshifttoflexibleworksolutionswithremoteworkmayincentivizeespeciallymiddleandupperclassestocarryoutlongmotorizedtripslessfrequently.A.InfrastructurePlanninginthePhilippinesThePhilippinesstillrankbelowitsneighborsintermsofthequalityofroads,railroads,port,andairtransportinfrastructure(IMF2019).TheDuterteAdministrationhasstartedtoincreaseexpendituresoninfrastructureprojectsfrom3%ofGDPin2016to5%ofGDPin2020,aiming34for7.3%by2022.The“Build,Build,Build”ProgramissupposedtobecomePresidentRodrigoR.Duterte’spoliticallegacy.Theprogramlists100largeinfrastructureprojectsthatshallbridgetheinvestmentgapandsecurethecountry’seconomicgrowthpath,especiallybyallowingaswiftereconomyrecoverypost-COVID-19.Itsimplementationcanonlypartlybecalledsuccessfulthisfar.Onlytwoprojectswerecompletedhalf-timeintothepresidentialtermand56%oftheprojectsarescheduledforcompletionbytheendof2022.7Mixedfundingmodels,operationalandpoliticaleconomychallengesininfrastructureplanninglimitthetypeandeffectivenessofmobilityoptionsavailabletothemiddleclasses.Demand-sidemanagementisnotapoliticalpriorityyet.TheshiftfrompurchasingpowerparitytomainlypublicandOfficialDevelopmentAssistance(ODA)fundingisadouble-edgedsword.Thegovernmentchosethisoptioninanattempttoexpandthelagginginfrastructureprojectsofpreviousadministrationsundermorefavorablefinancialconditions.ODAloansareofferedatconcessionalratesandwithlongerrepaymentperiods,butprojectimplementationisoftenslowerthanwithprivatesectorparticipation.TheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)tendstoadviseagainstpublicfundingforlargeinfrastructureprojectsbecauseofbudgetvariabilityandweakgovernanceinmanycountries.New,long-termloansinaneconomicrecessionarealsounlikelytoeasethefinancialburden.Astheoperationalcostsformaintenanceoftheexistingrailandroadsystemsarehighandarenotcurrentlyrecoveredbyfares(exceptfortollroads),afullprivatizationofthetransportsystemwouldnotsolvefinancialchallengesquicklyeither.Performance-basedcontractsforprivatetransportoperatorsandamultimodalapproachwithanintegratedfaresystemacrosstransportmodescouldsupportcostrecovery.VariouspoliticaleconomychallengeshampersustainabletransportpolicyinthePhilippines.Politicalpreferencehasbeengiventorailsolutionsratherthanafull-fledgedmultimodalapproachthatprioritizescomparativelycheaperbusrapidtransit(BRT)systemsinmajorroads,forexample.Highstaffturnoverandcasesofcorruptioninthevariousgovernmentalagenciesengagedintransportunderminethereliabilityandprogressofinfrastructureprojects.Further,thefragmentedtransportgovernancesystemmakesswiftdecision-makingandimplementationchallenging.TheWorldBankprojectonaBRTsysteminMetroManila,forinstance,hasbeensloweddownbecauseofthesepoliticaleconomychallenges.7https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in-depth/where-are-we-on-build-build-build-program.35Currently,middle-classconsumershavethefollowingpublictransportoptionswithinMetroManila:threelightrail(metro)lines(extensionsforalllinesareplanned;onemoreunderconstruction;subway-lineandanorth-southcommuterlinewithacommonstationplanned),buses,specificpoint-to-pointbuses,mini-vanscalledUV-Express,taxis,ride-hailingservicesbycar(Grab,formerlyalsoUber)orbymotorcycle(Angkas,Joyride)andmotorizedtricycles.Alargenumberofjeepneys(convertedUSArmyvehiclesthatcanseatabout12passengers)runonfixedroutespaintedonthesideofthevehicle.Intervalsdependontherouteandcanvaryfromafewminutesonlytohalfanhourwaitingtime.Jeepneysareoftenhighlypolluting,butarealsoanationalculturalsymbol.ThecurrentjeepneymodernisationprogrambytheDepartmentofTransportationtocurbairpollutionwasthereforemetbyalotofprotests,includingjeepneydriverswhofearfortheirlivelihoods.Separatebicyclelanesareavailableinveryfewneighborhoodsonly(e.g.,Marikina,QuezonCity,andMakati)andarounduniversitycampuses.ThedensityandfrequencyofcoverageofthesevariousoptionsdependsontheareawithinMetroManilaandavailableservicesoftenoverlapratherthanfeedeachotheroptimally.PublictransportsuspensionduringtheCOVID-19lockdownin2020presentedbothaburdenforcommutersandanopportunityfornewinitiativessuchaspop-upbikelanes.TheMetropolitanManilaDevelopmentAuthorityandtheDepartmentofPublicWorksandHighwaysarenowplanningtosetupseparatemotorcycleandbikelanesonthemaincircumferentialroadEpifaniodelosSantosAvenue(EDSA)permanently.Apermanent,clearlyseparatebuslaneonEDSAisalsobeingdiscussed.Onlythebikelaneshallhaveapermanentlaneseparationtoaugmentcyclistsecurity;abike-sharingprogramisalsobeingdiscussed.However,thefundssetasidefortheseparatebicyclelanesinthe“Bayanihan2”law,passedinSeptember2020,willexpireasofJune2021.8Assomepoliticalreluctanceseemstoremainwithinexecutingagencies,theimplementationofthesebicycleprojectsisquestionable.B.ManagingMiddleClassMobilityBehaviorMiddleclassesinthePhilippinesaremostlylocatedinMetroManila.WhileprivatevehicleownershipinthemetropolitanregionisstillbehindmanyotherAsiancities,demand-sidemanagementhastostartearlytomotivatethegrowingmiddleclassestoremaininpublictransport.Theanalysisoftravelpatternsandcarbonintensityshowsthatthemiddleclassesstilluseallpublictransportoptions,butbuyanduseownvehiclesassoonastheirfinancialcapacitiesallow.Currentlifestyletrendspointtowardsanenvironmentallyunsustainable8https://www.philstar.com/nation/2021/02/11/2076998/group-warns-budget-may-expire-while-mmda-studies-edsa-bike-lanes.36pathwayinthefuture(NeverandAlbert2021;Neveretal.2020).Thefollowingoutlinesthemainresults.1.MethodsAspartofaprojectoncarbonconsumptionpatternsofthegrowingmiddleclasses,9weconductedthreefocusgroupdiscussionsandahouseholdsurveywith900middle-classhouseholdsinMetroManilain2018.Thesurveyhasaslightbiastowardsthelowermiddleclasses.Boththefocusgroupsandthesurveytargetedmodesandfrequencyoftravel(butnotconcretedistancecovered),socialstatusconsiderations,environmentalknowledge,andenvironmentalconcern.Basedonsurveyanswers,wealsoconstructedawealthindex.Thefocusgroupsadditionallydiscussedthereasonsfortransportmodechoice,purchaseconsiderationsofacar,andperceptionsaboutthetransportsysteminManila.Thehouseholdsurveywasconductedinall17citiesofMetroManila,approximatingarepresentativesampleofthemiddleclasses.Thesamplingfollowedtwosteps,onegeographicalandonehousehold-basedstep.Inthefirststep,slumareasandveryrichdistrictswereexcluded.Inthesecondstep,probabilitysamplingproportionaltoestimatedpopulationsizeforneighborhoodswasapplied.Then,everyfifthhousefromarandomstartingpointwasapproached.Householdswereaskedscreeningquestionstodeterminewhethertheyqualifytobelongtoabroadbracketofmiddleclassornot.Screeningquestionstargetedassets,expenditures,andeducationlevelofthehouseholdhead.Afterexcludingoutliers,thefinalsamplesizewasN=802(formoredetails,refertoNeveretal.2020).Basedonthesurveydata,weconstructedascoreoncarbonintensityoftravelpatterns.Thecarbondioxide(CO2)scorefortransportisaproxy,notanaccuratemeasurementofthecarbonintensityofalltraveltrajectoriesbyactualkilometers(km)andtimetravelled.Asastartingpoint,weusedoursurveyquestion“Onanormalday,howoftendoyouuseyourowncar”.Weaskedthisquestionfor12availabletransportmodesinMetroManila,usingafive-pointLikertscale.AnswersforanormaldaywereextrapolatedtoannualfrequenciesinordertomatchthemwithannualaverageCO2emissionsbyvehicletypes.9https://www.idos-research.de/en/research/description//sustainable-middle-classes-in-middle-income-countries-transforming-carbon-consumption-patterns-smmicc/.37WemultipliedaveragevehicleemissionsfactorsperkmtravelledinMetroManilaforeachofthe12transportmodes(NEDA2014;FabianandGota2009)bytheinverseaverageoccupancyratesforeachvehicletype,usingthemostrecentdataavailable(JICA2012).Theaverageoccupancyratecapturesthevehiclekmperpersonkmtravelled;theinverse(personkmpervehiclekm)isnecessarytoarriveatpercapitaCO2emissions.CO2emissionestimatepercapita=dailyfrequencyoftravelmode10Inverseoccupancyrateemissionfactor(gofCO2/kmtravelled)365Walk,bike,andpedicabarehuman-poweredand,therefore,havenoemissions.DataontheoccupancyrateandtheemissionfactorsoftheManilalightrailsystems(MRT,LRT)aremissing.YetlightrailsystemssuchasmetrolinestypicallyhaveveryhighoccupancyratesinManila,andthereforelowpercapitaemissions.Thus,thetravelmode“metro(MRT,LRT)”isassignedthevalue“0”aswell.Annualflightemissionsarecomputedasfollows:(i)weutilizeinformationonindividuals’flightdestinationsandapproximatetheaveragedistance(inkm)travelledperairjourney;and(ii)wemultiplytheaveragetraveldistancebyaproxyforaverageCO2perairkmandthenumberoftimesthepersontravelledbyplanelastyear.11Foreachlandtravelmode,wemultiplythedailytravelmodefrequenciesbyCO2emissionspertransportmodetimes365toarriveataproxyforindividuals’annualtransportCO2score(refertoequation/calculationabove).Giventhelimiteddataavailability,thisapproximationisthemostaccuratemeasurewecouldcalculate.2.TravelPatternsoftheMiddleClassesThemiddleclassestendtobeflexibleintransportmodechoice.Onanormalday,walking,usingajeepneyormotorizedtricycle(motortaxi)arethemostfrequentmodesofroadtravelacrosswealthgroupswithinthemiddleclass(Table2).Asidefromthesethreeroadtravelmodes,theuseofbus,metroandbicyclearefairlyequalacrosswealthgroups.Yet,onlythewealthiermiddle-classmembers(haveand)useacar,shareacarwithafriendorfamilymember.Motorcycles,Grab,andutilityvehicleexpressareusedmorefrequentlywith10Weights:nearlynever=0km,afewtimes=5km,sometimes=10km,often=20km,andveryOften=25km.11Ourproxyis115gramsofCO2perairkmtravelled(source:https://www.carbonindependent.org/sources_aviation.html).Weacknowledgethefactthatatypicalairjourneyinvolvesaroundtripand,thus,considertheaveragedistancecoveredperjourneytwice.38increasingwealth.Further,airplanetravelcorrelateswithwealthamongthemiddleclass.Thefocusgroupdiscussionsconfirmedtheseflexibletravelpatterns.However,middle-classmemberswhoowncarsdonotalwaysusetheircarsbecauseofdiscomfortsintraffic,parking,andcosts.Grabandjeepneysarepopularforshorterdistances.Jeepneysandnon-air-conditionedbusesareusedlessfrequentlybecauseofalackofcomfort.Walkingisalsoperceivedasuncomfortablebymany,mainlybecauseofheatandhumidity,andpossiblybecauseofhabitsasothermeansoftransportareoftenreadilyavailable.Table2:FrequencyofPreferredTransportModesbyMiddleClassWealthQuintileOnanormalday,proportion(in%)thatsometimes,oftenoralwaysMiddleClassWealthQuintileTotalPoorestSecondMiddleFourthRichestUseyourowncar0.00.00.00.610.12.1Shareacarwithafriendorfamilymember0.60.00.02.59.42.5Useabus11.210.115.613.815.713.3Useajeepney52.258.555.058.557.956.4Useatricycle52.258.549.447.254.752.4Useamotorcycle14.322.626.926.431.424.3UseGrab1.21.93.810.110.75.5Useataxi1.22.54.411.35.75.0UseUVExpress2.53.84.48.89.45.8Usethemetro(MRT,LRT)9.913.210.017.015.713.2Useabike7.513.85.010.77.58.9Walk95.791.293.893.184.991.7LRT=lightrailwaytransit,MRT=metrorailwaytransitSource:Authors’calculationsfromIDOSGermanInstitueofDevelopmentandSustainabilitymicrodata(2018);previouslypublishedinNeverandAlbert(2021).Mobilityneedsandabilitiesincreasewithupwardsocialmobility.Transportmakesup6%oftotalmiddle-classhouseholdexpenditures,comparedto4.7%amongthelow-incomeclassand7.1%amongtheupper-incomeclass(GovernmentofthePhilippines2015).Themiddle-incomeandupper-incomeclassesspendnearlythesameamountonroadtransportservices,andbothspendmorethantwicethatspentbythelower-incomeclass(NeverandAlbert2021;GovernmentofthePhilippines2015).However,theupper-incomeclassfaroutspendsthemiddle-incomeclassinairtransportservices.39Carpurchasebehaviorisinfluencedbythequalityandconvenienceofpublictransport.Focusgroupparticipantsarguedthatthemiddleclassprefertobuynewcarsbecauseofthepoorpublictransportsystem,comfortreasons,andtheeaseinbuyingnew,safervehiclesbecauseofpaymentschemes(lowdownpaymentsandmonthlypayments).Pricesforanew,smallcar(e.g.,ToyotaWigo,HondaBrio)areabout₱500,000–₱600,000withtypicalmonthlyinstalmentscostsstartingat₱10,000–₱15,000.Usedcarpricesstartat₱50,000/$200already.Bigger,newcarswithsomeextrafeaturesthatrichfamilieswouldprefer(e.g.,HondaCivic,ToyotaFortuner)startatpricesof₱1million–₱1.5million.Higheffortrequiredandalackofchoicesbetweenmodern,efficienttransportmodesfrustratethemiddleclasses.Focusgroupsagreedthattrafficandcongestiongreatlyaffectworklifeandfamilylife.Realchoicesbetweentransportmodesdonotalwaysexistbecauseeveryoptioniscrowdedandtakesalotoftime.Participantsalsocriticizedalackofruleenforcement,especiallyforthenumbercodingrulethatcarsareonlyallowedonMetroManilastreets6daysaweek.Moreover,richfamiliesownseveralcarstocircumventtheruleonpurpose.Apartfromthenumbercodingscheme,theMetropolitanManilaDevelopmentAuthorityexperimentswithvariousotherschemestoreducevehiclevolumeinMetroManila(e.g.,higherexcisetaxonfuel,moreroadspaceallocationtobusesinyellowlanes,U-turns,nostopping).Thusfar,thesedemand-sideinterventionshardlyaffectthemobilitybehaviorofthemiddleclasses.3.CarbonIntensityandDriversofSustainableTransportModeChoiceAsthemiddleclassesinManilamoveupthewealthladder,carbonemissionsfromtheirmobilitybehaviorincrease(Figure1).Butnotonlywealthier,butalsomoreeducatedmiddle-classmembersemitmorecarbon.Socialstatusconsiderations,environmentalconcern,environmentalknowledge,andtheageoftheindividualdonotimpactthecarbonintensityoftransportbehaviorsdirectly,butplayatleastasecondaryroleinthechoiceofanunsustainableorsustainablemodeoftransport.Wealthier,moreeducatedFilipinostendtobehappytopayahigherpriceofusingaUVExpress,Grab,taxi,orothersharedcarservicesbecausetheycanaffordtheextracomfort.Usingbuses,themetro,orjeepneysischeaperbutinvolvesstandinginqueuesforalongtime,40especiallyduringrushhour.Anairconditionedcarinatrafficjammaybethemorecomfortableoptionforsome.Forwhomstatusplaysaroleaswellisunclear.Theroleofsocialstatusconsiderationsintransportmodechoiceisdifficulttopindown.AstudyinIndiahasshownthatcarownershippresentsapowerfulstatussymbol,forexample(Verma2015).WealsofindasmallpositivecorrelationbetweenstatusandourtransportCO2score,whichonlyappearswheneducationiscontrolledfor.Giventheverysmallnumberofcarownersinoursurveysample,wecannotinferthatcarsareastatussymbolforwealthier,educatedmiddle-classhouseholds,eventhoughourfocusgroupdiscussionsandbackgroundinterviewssuggestedthis.Thefocusgroupsmoreclearlyevokedthatstatussignallingtoothersplaysaroleforsomeinthemiddleclass,especiallythosewhoseektoclimbsocially,tryingtokeepupwithupperclasslifestyles.Decadesago,owningacarwasalreadyastatussymboloftheuppermiddleclass,withparentsproudlysaying:“maysarilingkotsenayan”(translation:theyhavetheirowncar).Inmanycountries,transportmodechoiceisdrivenbyacombinationofindividual(materialandpsychological),social,andinfrastructurelevelfactors.Whilepersonalcontroloverdecisionsandperceptionsaboutcommonbehaviorofothersmotivatesomeshiftsinmodechoice,infrastructurefactorsexplainlargedifferencesinmodechoice(Javaidetal.2020).Foradeeperanalysisofthedriversof(un)sustainabletransportmodechoiceinManila,wegroupthefrequencyofusingvarioustransportmodesonanormaldayintosustainable(walk,bike,bus,metro)andmotorized(here:labelledasunsustainable)modesoftransport(car,sharedprivatecar,jeepney,Grab,UVExpress,taxi,motorcycle,tricycle),buildingindices.Whileyounger,female,andslightlymoreenvironmentallyconcernedmiddle-classconsumerstendtochoosemoresustainablemodesoftransport,thecorrelationsarenotverystrongandcoefficientsaresmall.Similarly,youngerbutwealthiermiddle-classconsumerschooseunsustainablemodesoftransportmorefrequently.Theresultisalsoonlyweaklysignificant.Inbothregressions,theconstanthasastronginfluence,indicatingthatotherfactorshavebeenmoreimportant.Theavailability,timeefficiency,price,andcomfortoftransportinfrastructureplayalargerrole,asthefocusgroupdiscussionshaveindicated.Overall,thetransportconsumptionpatternsofthelowermiddleclassesinMetroManilaconsistofamoresustainablemixthanofthewealthiermiddleclass.However,evenforthewealthier41middleclasses,publictransportisstillanoption,asbothourfocusgroupandchoicepatternsoftravelmodesrevealed.Oncehouseholdsreachuppermiddle-classstatusandmayfurthermoveintoupperincomebrackets,carbonfootprintsfromairtravelandcaracquisitionisverylikelytoincrease.Futuredemand-sidemanagementpolicyneedstotakethesedifferentconsumersegmentsandtheirmotivationsintoaccount.Figure2:MiddleClassWealthLevelsandCarbonEmissionsinthePhilippinesPCA=PrincipalComponentAnalysis.CI=ConfidenceInterval.Source:Author’scalculations.42Table3:TransportScoreRegressions:ManilaTransportScoreModel1Model2Model3Model4Model5Wealth0.0870.0880.0870.0870.072(0.02)(0.02)(0.02)(0.02)(0.02)Status-0.028-0.030-0.031-0.016(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)Knowledge0.0070.0060.001(0.02)(0.02)(0.02)Concern0.0140.020(0.08)(0.08)Education0.166(0.06)Age0.001(0.00)Gender0.036(0.09)Householdmembers0.004(0.01)Constant0.0020.0770.039-0.005-0.289(0.04)(0.16)(0.20)(0.33)(0.38)R-sqr0.0180.0180.0180.0180.027dfres792791790789785BIC2257.22263.72270.22276.92296.3p<0.05,<0.01,p<0.001Note:Standarderrorsareinbrackets.Source:Author’scalculations.43Table4:InfluenceofEnvironmentalConcern,Knowledge,andOverseasExperienceontheUseofSustainableTransportModesonaNormalDaySource:Authors‘calculationsbasedonIDOSGermanInstituteofDevelopmentandSustainability(2018)survey.p<0.05,p<0.01,p<0.001tstatisticsinparenthesesN796796796796(13.00)(13.25)(13.36)(13.11)_cons3.2053.3883.4023.418(0.29)wealth_score0.00792(2.79)(2.72)gender_dum0.1830.180(-2.57)(-2.69)(-2.70)age-0.00539-0.00562-0.00568(-0.96)(-0.93)(-0.88)(-0.87)relatives~as-0.00150-0.00145-0.00137-0.00136(-0.53)(-0.27)(-0.44)(-0.47)worked_ove~s-0.0508-0.0263-0.0423-0.0459(-0.89)(-0.76)(-0.68)(-0.71)knowledge_~x-0.0201-0.0172-0.0152-0.0161(2.64)(2.58)(2.45)(2.41)concern_in~x0.1570.1530.1450.143sust_trans~tsust_trans~tsust_trans~tsust_trans~t(1)(2)(3)(4)44Table5:InfluenceofEnvironmentalConcern,Knowledge,andOverseasExperienceontheUseofMotorized(Unsustainable)TransportModesonaNormalDaySource:Authors’calculationsbasedonIDOSGermanInstituteofDevelopmentandSustainabilityhouseholdsurvey(2018).4.MultimodalPlanningandDemand-ManagementfortheMiddleClassesinthePhilippinesFortransportplanners,thewindowofopportunitytomanagemobilitytrendsandstrongdemandbythegrowingmiddleclasseswithaneyetothefutureisopennow.Thetransitiontosustainable,low-carbontransportsystemsiscapturedbythewidely-known“Avoid–Shift–Improve”framework.AvoidingunnecessarymotorizedtripsisveryrelevantforAsia’smiddleclasses.Opportunitiestocontinueremoteworksolutionspost-COVID-19shouldbesought,ifpossible.Shiftingtopublictransportandactivetransportmodes(e.g.,walking,cycling)appliestotheuppermiddleclasseswhoownanduseanownvehicleonly.InMetroManila,thevastmajorityofthemiddleclassesstillusepublictransport.Strategicallysupportinga“Remain”optionisthereforemoreappropriateforthePhilippinesatthismoment.Improvingavailablesystemsandtransportmodesintermsofenergyefficiencyandfuelefficiencyisusefulforallconsumers.TheintroductionoffuelefficiencystandardsbytheDepartmentofEnergyandthejeepneymodernizationprogrambelongtothiscategory.Toadvancethe“Avoid”and“Remain”p<0.05,p<0.01,p<0.001tstatisticsinparenthesesN796796796796(9.98)(10.26)(10.29)(13.43)_cons1.6471.7581.7632.169(11.89)wealth_score0.199(1.32)(-0.31)gender_dum0.0581-0.0125(-2.34)(-2.39)(-3.78)age-0.00328-0.00336-0.00492(-1.41)(-1.38)(-1.36)(-1.21)relatives~as-0.00148-0.00145-0.00142-0.00117(1.74)(1.97)(1.89)(0.55)worked_ove~s0.1120.1270.1220.0331(1.51)(1.63)(1.67)(0.23)knowledge_~x0.02280.02460.02520.00318(2.15)(2.10)(2.03)(1.10)concern_in~x0.08570.08340.08080.0406unsust_tra~tunsust_tra~tunsust_tra~tunsust_tra~t(1)(2)(3)(4)45dimensionsofsustainabletransporttransitionsinthePhilippines,systematicdemand-sidemanagementisrequired.GiventheinfrastructuregapsandmaintenancechallengesinthecurrentsysteminMetroManila,demand-sidemanagementhasnotreceivedmuchpoliticalattentionyet.Threetypesofdemand-sidemanagementthatareparticularlyrelevantforadaptiveplanningtothemiddleclassneedsarediscussedabove:Incentivestouseefficientmodes.RoadspaceallocationawayfromtheprivatevehicleispartlybeingputinplaceinMetroManila,butnotsystematically.Further,bothprivatecarsandmotorcyclestendtoswerveontobuslanesandbusesstoprandomlytopickupanddropoffpassengers.SegregatedlanesforpublicbusesandaBRTsystemwithconcretebarriersandstoppingatbusstationsonlywouldincreasesystemefficiencyandtimesavedwillattractmiddle-classusers.Thiscanbeenhancedbytheimplementationofparkingrestrictionsincongestedareas,aswellascongestiontariffsinthecitycenter.Currently,especiallymiddle-classconsumersswitchtomoretime-effectivemodesoftransportwithindistrictsalready.ThetremendousgrowthandsuccessofAngkasandJoyridemotorcyclesespeciallyinbusinessareasshowsthatnew,attractive,andconvenientoptionswillbepickedupbycustomersimmediately.Smartgrowthdevelopmentpolicies.Apartfromasystematicandcomprehensivetransportpolicy,smartgrowthdevelopmentmeansincreasingthe(physical)attractivenessofpublictransportitselfandofthepublicareasaroundit,includingtransit-orienteddevelopmentinmixed-useurbanareas.Creatingpedestrianandbicycle-friendlyareas,wherepossible,andturningthepop-upbikelanesaroundMetroManilaintoacontinuouscyclingnetworkpresentusefulsteps.TheDepartmentofTransportationhasalreadystartedinvestinginelevatedwalkwaysandtheEDSAGreenwaysProject,forexample,approvedbyADBin2020.Theseeffortscouldbeexpanded.Additionally,appealingandsafepublicareasnearstations,whichareeasilyreachablebyfootorbicycle,and—targetingthemiddleclasses—modern,attractively-designed,airconditioned,andcomfortableoptionssupporttransit-orienteddevelopment.Giventhecurrentdifficultiesinfinancing,maintenance,andplanninginthePhilippines,thiswillnothappenovernight,butitisworthpushingforitnowbeforewindowsofopportunitytochangemobilitytrendsclose.46Multimodalplanningandbehaviorchange.Thephysicalintegrationoftransportmodesavailable,theprovisionofinformationonwaitingtimes,forinstance,andtheintegrationoffaresacrossMetroManilawouldalladdressthemiddleclasses’demandforconvenience,time-efficient,andmodernservices.TheLRTandMRThaveanintegratedfaresystem,whichwouldneedtobeextendedtoothertransportmodes.Thehighnumberofoperatorsofbusesandjeepneysmakesthischallenging,butanintegratedfaresystemcanbenefitpoorerpartsofthepopulationforlongandmultimodaltrips(Nagetal.2019).Fortheupperandmiddleclasses,time-basedsubscriptioncardsorhigherfaresforaccesstofirstclassseatingareascouldhelpsmoothensystemcostrecovery,similartothestaggeredelectricitytariffsinplaceinMetroManila(electricitylifelinetariffforthepooriscross-subsidizedbyahighertariffforintensiveelectricityuserswithoutanygovernmentalsubsidies).Anintegratedsystemcanofferallthepossibletripcombinationstotheuser,allowingthemtoselectthemostconvenientone.Currenttechnologiescanfacilitatethisviamobileapplications.Inthisway,publictransportusecanbecomeascomfortableandconvenientasprivatecaruse.BehaviorchangeinterventionsandinformationcampaignscouldincreasepublicacceptanceofnewmasstransitoptionssuchasBRTsystemsorelectricbike-sharingtrials.Lessonsinothercountriessuchasthesuccessfulimplementationofe-bikesharinginthePRCcanbehelpfulhere.Inasituationwheredemandcannotbemetbyanysupply,asinMetroManilacurrently,behaviorchangeinterventionsarearguablyevenmoreimportanttostartchangingsocialstatusandsocialnormformationamongthegrowingmiddleclassesinthemidtermtolong-term.YoungadultsinIndiawithapro-environmentalmentalityandgoodpublicinfrastructureavailableclosetothemarelesslikelytoownacarinthefuture(Vermaetal.2016).ThestrategicsupportofsuchenvironmentalbubblesinthePhilippinesbyunderlininginternationaltrendsincommunicationcampaignsmaybeuseful.Dynamicnorminterventionscanhelptocreatenewnormsthatarenotinplaceyet.Overall,thepoliticalandpublicacceptanceofsustainablemasstransitoptionsasthepathwaytothefutureratherthanprivatemotorizedtransportcouldstillbeincreasedinthePhilippines.Intermsofpolicysequencethatlinkstransportinfrastructuresupplyandconsumerdemandandbehavior,infrastructureinvestmentsandthecreationofattractivealternativesneedtocomefirst,whilealsoprotectingandsupportingsmall-scalesustainablemobilityinitiativessuchascyclinginuniversityareastostartchangingconsumernormsandaspirationstowardswell-being.Duringfinalphasesofinfrastructureconstructionandmodernization,targeted47awarenessraisingfordifferentconsumergroupscanstartalready.Finally,onceattractivelow-carbonalternativesareinplace,demand-sidemanagementprogramscanberolledoutfordifferentsegmentsofthepopulation,forinstancewithintegratedinformationandfare-systemsanddifferentialpricingschemesbasedoneconomiccapabilitiesofconsumers.Infrastructureinvestmentsneedtobeinclusiveandcatertotheneedsofallpopulationgroups.ForalargeofpartofthemiddleclassesinthePhilippines,thekeyistohelpthemremaininpublictransportandmakeoptionssoattractiveandconvenientthaturbancommutersseenostatusorefficiencygaininprivatecartravel.VII.POLICYRECOMMENDATIONSTheexplicitintegrationofAsianconsumersinpolicypackagesforanetzerotransitionhasmanyco-benefitsforsocial,environmental,andeconomicgoals.Thetypeofpolicypackageandthesequenceofmeasuresinthepackagetounleashavirtuouscycleofsustainableconsumptionandproductiondependonlocalmarketstructuresandavailableinfrastructure,aswellasonlocalconsumptioncapabilitiesandprevalentconsumernormsandpreferences.Standardcommandandcontrolandfinancialinstruments(e.g.,incentives,subsidies)aresuitableforcostly,complex,orunpopularbehaviorchangesandthosethatrequirealotofinvestmentsinaconducivecontextforconsumerdecision-making.Behavioralinsightstools(choicearchitecture,nudges)areparticularlyusefulforveryspecificsituationswithalimitednumberofstakeholdersandalowtomiddegreeofcomplexityandcosts,forimprovingindividual-levelprograms,increasingtheuptakeoflow-carbontechnologies,expandinggeneralsupportforlow-carbonprojects,andaddressingindividualswithhighenvironmentalconcernandintrinsicmotivationtochangetolow-carbonconsumption.Thesequenceofmeasureswithinpolicypackagesalsorequirescarefulplanning(e.g.,infrastructureintransportfirst,recyclingco-developmentofinfrastructure/employment,andconsumer-orientedmeasures).Regulationandfinancialincentives/support(standardtoolbox)areparticularlyusefulfor:(i)largerand/orverycostlyinvestmentdecisionsatindividualorcollectivelevel;(ii)complexdecision-makingsetupswithmanyinfluencingfactorsandstakeholders;(iii)setupofsustainablealternatives(e.g.,productdesign,infrastructure);and(iv)steeringunpopularchoices.48Behavioralinsightsareparticularlyusefulfor:(i)improvingexistingindividual-levelprograms(e.g.,recycling);(ii)increasingtheadoptionandsmartuseoflow-carbontechnologies(e.g.,ACs);(iii)expandingsupportforenvironmentalpolicyandprojects;and(iv)addressingindividualswithhighenvironmentalconcern/intrinsicmotivation,especiallywhenusing“nudging”techniques.Informationandawareness-raisingprogramsalonewillnotbesufficient.Individualattitudesandnormsmaytakelongertochangeanddonotalwaystranslatetoaction(value-/intention-actiongap).Oncechanged,however,theyarelikelytobemorestableacrossdecisiondomainssuchasenergysavingandplasticreuse.Addressingspecificbehavioralbarrierswithverytargeted,context-dependentmeasuresismorelikelytoleadtoimmediatebehaviorchange,butthechangemaynotbelong-lastingorstableacrossdifferentdecisiondomains.IndevelopingAsia,adifferentiationofconsumer-orientedmeasuresaccordingtodifferentincomegroupsandsocialmobilitydynamicsisappropriate.Informationalmeasuresandmanybehavioralmeasuresaimedatchangingconsumerknowledgeandmotivationthedevelopmentofanewnormofwell-beingcanbeaddressedtoallincomegroups.Thiswell-beingnormcouldshifttothequalityofeconomicdevelopmentandconsumption(awayfromthequantityorientation)bystressingthemanyco-benefitsonsocialandenvironmentalgoals.Thisdoesnotmeandeprivinganyoneofexperiencesoropportunities,ratheradjustingtoa“newcool”.Inconsequence,perceptionsandaspirationsofsocialstatusconnectedtoconsumptionpatternsmaychangeovertime,whichisparticularlyimportantfortheaspiringandfloatingmiddleclassesastheymaybethecapableconsumersofthefuture.High-incomeanduppermiddle-incomeclassesmaybeaddressedwithmorestringentregulationandclearcontributionstoanetzeroandjusttransitionwithintheirowncountries.Forexample,businessandfirstclassairtravelcouldincludeacarbonprice.Luxurygoodsand/orlarge,energy-intensiveassetscouldbeputunderaclearcarbontax;incomesofthesetaxedcouldberecycledtothepoorestinthepopulation(e.g.,recipientsofsocialprotectioncashprograms),turningthetaxbothprogressiveandbeneficialtothepoor.12Inelectricity12ThishasbeenshowntobepossibleinPeru(Malerbaetal.2020).49pricing,staggeredtariffsaccordingtoconsumptioninkilowatt-hourarecommoninmanydevelopingcountries.Thisapproachcouldbetransferredtomodernizedtransportsystemsforexample,combiningattractiveandefficientinfrastructure,integratedinformationalandfaresystems,anddifferentiatedpricingschemes.Insectorsthatofferopportunitiestocloselylinkconsumer-andproducer-orientedmeasures,movingfromvoluntarytomandatoryphase-inandphase-outmeasurescouldbeappropriate,e.g.,energyefficiencylabelsandmanufacturersofACs,ororganicandregionalfoodlabelsandregionalproducers.Labelledproductsmaybemorereadilyavailableatshopsorsupermarketsfrequentedbymiddle-incometohigh-incomeconsumersratherthanintraditionalmarkets.However,theintegrationofnewactors(e.g.,smallsupermarketsandcornershops)aswellasagreenandsocialregulationofusedappliancemarkets,forexample,couldsupportthereach-outtolow-incomeconsumersaswell.Finally,sustainable,low-carboninnovationsandinitiativesbothamonglocalproducersandamongconsumergroupsshouldbemoresystematicallyidentifiedandsupported.Foranetzerotransitiontohappensuccessfullyintime,consumerpressureonpolicyandproducersaswellasmiddle-incomeandhigh-incomeconsumerbehaviorchangearerequired,whichinturnneedspoliticalaction.50APPENDIXFigureA1:EnergyUseperCapitainOilEquivalentsperKilogram,1960–2014Sources:OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment,InternationalEnergyAgency,andWorldBank.51FigureA2:ConsumptionProjectionsforDifferentConsumerSegmentsFigureA3:MiddleClassHouseholdWealthLevelandEnergyConsumption(N=900percountry)kWh=kilowatt-hour.Sources:HouseholdsurveybyGermanInstituteofDevelopmentandSustainabilityandNeveretal.(2022).52FigureA4:InequalityinHouseholdCarbonFootprintsinIndiaCF=CarbonFootprint,PPP=purchasingpowerparity,tCO2=totalcarbondioxide.Source:Leeetal(2021a).FigureA5:ShareofCarsOwnedbyMiddleClass,OrderedbyWealthQuintilesCI=ConfidenceInterval.Sources:Neveretal.(2020),HouseholdsurveysbyGermanInstituteofDevelopmentandSustainability(IDOS).53FigureA6:ShareofAirConditionersOwnedbyMiddleClass,OrderedbyWealthQuintilesCI=ConfidenceInterval.Source:Neveretal.2020,HouseholdsurveysbyGermanInstituteofDevelopmentandSustainability(IDOS).54TableA1:RegressionEstimatesforthe(Simultaneous)BivariateOrderedProbitModelonStatusConsumption,IndiaSource:Ramakrishnanetal.(2020:9).55FigureA7:EnvironmentalKnowledgeamongMiddleClassHouseholdsinGhana,Peru,andthePhilippinesSource:Neveretal.(2020),HouseholdsurveysbyGermanInstituteofDevelopmentandSustainability(IDOS).FigureA8:EnvironmentalConcernamongMiddleClassHouseholdsinGhana,Peru,andthePhilippinesSource:Neveretal.(2020),HouseholdsurveysbyGermanInstituteofDevelopmentandSustainability(IDOS).56TableA2:WorldValuesSurveyWave7:EnvironmentversusEconomyEVS=EuropeanValuesSurveyPRC=People’sRepublicofChina.Source:WorldValuesSurveyonline,https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSDocumentationWV7.jsp.BangladeshMyanmarPRCIndonesiaJapanMalaysiaPakistanPhilippinesSingaporeThailandProtectingenvironment44.951.368.272.133.660.440.366.355.852.7Economygrowthandcreatingjobs49.348.626.221.423.134.853.432.63642.9Otheranswer00.14.75.29.64.80.30.63.33.1Donottknow5.700.40.83205.40.43.80.2Noanswer0.100.50.21.700.701.10Othermissing;MultipleanswersMail(EVS)0000.30000.101.2(N)1,2001,2003,0363,2001,3531,3131,9951,2002,0121,50057REFERENCESADB.2019.FosteringGrowthandInclusioninAsia’sCities.ThemeChapteroftheAsianDevelopmentOutlook2019Update(September).AsianDevelopmentBank.Alam,Z.2021.GreenACProjectReport,May2021.Internalreport.Manila:DeutscheGesellschaftfürInternationaleZusammenarbeit.Altenburg,T.andD.Rodrik.2017.Greenindustrialpolicy:acceleratingstructuralchangetowardswealthygreeneconomies.InAltenburg,TilmanandClaudiaAssmann,eds.Greenindustrialpolicy:concept,policies,countryexperiences.GenevaandBonn:UNEnvironmentandGermanDevelopmentInstitute(DeutschesInstitutfürEntwicklungspolitik)(DIE),pp.1–20.Allcott,H.2011:Socialnormsandenergyconservation.JournalofPublicEconomics95,pp.1082–1095.Allcott,H.andT.Rogers.2014.Theshort-runandlong-runeffectsofbehavioralinterventions:experimentalevidencefromenergyconservation.AmericanEconomicReview104,pp.3003–3037.Anantharaman,M.2014.Networkedecologicalcitizenship,thenewmiddleclassesandtheprovisioningofsustainablewastemanagementinBangalore,India.JournalofCleanerProduction63,pp.173–183.Anantharaman,M.2017.Eliteandethical:Thedefensivedistinctionofmiddle-classbicyclinginBangalore,India.JournalofConsumerCulture17(3),pp.864–886.Andor,M.andK.Fels.2018.BehavioralEconomicsandEnergyConservation:ASystematicReviewofNon-PriceInterventionsandTheirCausalEffects.EcologicalEconomics(148),pp.178–210.Andrews-Speed,P.andG.Ma.2016:Householdenergysavingin(thePeople’sRepublicof)China:Thechallengeofchangingbehaviour.(ThePeople’sRepublicof)China’sEnergyEfficiencyandConservation,pp.23–39.Ballantyne,R.,Fien,J.,&Packer,J.(2001).Schoolenvironmentaleducationprogrammeimpactsuponstudentandfamilylearning:Acasestudyanalysis.EnvironmentalEducationResearch,7(1),23–37Barreca,A.,K.Clay,O.Deschenes,M.Greenstone,andJ.S.Shapiro.2016.Adaptingtoclimatechange:theremarkabledeclineintheUStemperature-mortalityrelationshipoverthetwentiethcentury.JournalofPoliticalEconomy124,pp.105–159.Birdsall,N.,N.Lustig,andC.Meyer.2015.Thestrugglers:ThenewpoorinLatinAmerica?WorldDevelopment60,pp.132–146.58BharandAnanatharaman.2022:Contradictionsofsustainableconsumption:externalitiesvsco-benefitsfordevelopment.PresentationattheworkshopUp-scalingco-benefitsofsustainableconsumptionfordevelopment.Bonn,Germany/online,13June2022.Borasino,ElenaandHannaFuhrmann-Riebel.2021.Newkidsontherecyclingblock:theroleofsupermarketsandbodegasforsustainableconsumerbehaviourinLima.CircularEconomyandSustainability.Firstpublished1December2021.Buckley,P.2020.Prices,informationandnudgesforresidentialelectricityconservation:Ameta-analysis.EcologicalEconomics120,106635.Capano,G.andM.Howlett.2020.TheKnownsandUnkownsofPolicyInstrumentAnalysis:PolicyToolsandtheCurrentResearchAgendaonPolicyMixes.SAGEOpen,https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244019900568.Centola,D.,Becker,J.,Brackbill,D.andA.Baronchelli.2018.Experimentalevidencefortippingpointsinsocialconvention.Science360(6393),pp.1116–1119.Chalermpong,S.,Kato,H.,Thaithaktul,P.,Ratanawahara,A.,Fillone,A.,Hoang-Tung,N.andP.Jittrapirom2022.Ride-hailingapplicationsinSoutheastAsia:Aliteraturereview.InternationalJournalofSustainableTransportation,pp.1–21.Charlier,D.andA.Martinez-Cruz.2020.Dohabitualenergysavingbehaviorsofhouseholdheadsimpactenergyconsumptionintheirowndwelling?AnexplorationintheFrenchresidentialsector.CEREWorkingPaper5.CenterforEnvironmentalandResourceEconomics,UmeaUniversity.Chun,N.,Hasan,R.,Rahman,M.andM.Ulubasoglu.2017.Theroleofthemiddleclassineconomicdevelopment:Whatdocross-countrydatashow?ReviewofDevelopmentEconomics,21,pp.404–424.Creutzig,F.,Roy,J.,Lamb,W.,Azevedo,I.,deBruin,W.,Dalkmann,H.,Edelenbosch,O.,Geels,F.,Grubler,A.,Hepburn,C.,Hertwich,E.,Khosla,R.,Mattauch,L.Minx,J.,Ramakrishnan,A.Rao,N.,Steinberger,J.,Tavoni,M.,Ürge-Vorsatz,D.andE.Weber.2018.Towardsdemand-sidesolutionsformitigatingclimatechange.NatureClimateChange8,pp.260–271.DeKleine,R.,G.Keoleian,andJ.Kelly.2011.Optimalreplacementofresidentialairconditioningequipmenttominimizeenergy,greenhousegasemissions,andconsumercostsintheUS.EnergyPolicy39,pp.3144–3153.DeKoning,J.,Crul,M.,Wever,R.andJ.Brezet.2015.SustainableconsumptioninVietNam:anexplorativestudyamongtheurbanmiddleclass.InternationalJournalofConsumerStudies39(6),pp.608–618.59Dosmukhambetova,D.2020.Theuseofbehaviouralinsightsinpromotingresidentialenergyefficiency:anoverviewofavailableliterature.TechnicalReport.Auckland.https://www.knowledgeauckland.org.nz/media/1912/tr2020-015-behavioural-insights-in-promoting-residential-energy-efficiency.pdf.Fabian,H.,&Gota,S.(2009).CO2emissionsfromthelandtransportsectorinthePhilippines:Estimatesandpolicyimplications.Proceedingsofthe17thAnnualConferenceoftheTransportationScienceSocietyofthePhilippines.Retrievedfromhttp://tssp.tripod.com/documents/17th_tssp/fabian.pdfFuhrmann-Riebel,H.2022.Motivationsandincentivesforpro-environmentalbeha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