2023年世界能源转型展望概览：1.5°C路径（英）--IRENAVIP专享VIP免费

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WORLD

ENERGY

TRANSITIONS

OUTLOOK 2023

1. 5° C PATHWAY

PREVIEW

ABOUT IRENA

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) serves as the principal platform for international

co-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge,

and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. A global

intergovernmental organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and

sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean,

solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security, and

low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org

Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced,

printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and

before any use of such material.

ISBN: 978-92-9260-527-8

CITATION

This publication is a preview of the forthcoming report, IRENA (2023), World Energy Transitions Outlook

2023: 1.5°C Pathway, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.

Available for download: www.irena.org/publications

For further information or to provide feedback: publications@irena.org

The data presented herein is accurate at the time of publication. Modelling results may change ahead of

the launch of the full report.

DISCLAIMER

This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken

by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of

its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers, provides a warranty of any kind, either

expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the

publication or material herein.

The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The

mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or

recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations

employed, and the presentation of material herein, do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part

of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or

concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.

PREVIEW

WORLD

ENERGY

TRANSITIONS

OUTLOOK 2023

Francesco La Camera

Director-General, IRENA

MESSAGE FROM THE DIRECTOR-GENERAL

The recent Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment has delivered a sobering message - one

that leaves little ambiguity as to the need for immediate action. This decade, our success in reducing

greenhouse gas emissions will determine whether global temperature rise can be limited to 1.5°C

or even 2°C. Within this timeframe, the only realistic option available is a considerable scale-up of

renewable energy and efficiency solutions.

The International Renewable Energy Agency’s 1.5°C pathway positions electrification and efficiency

as key transition drivers, enabled by renewable energy, clean hydrogen and sustainable biomass. This

preview of the World Energy Transitions Outlook provides an overview of the progress achieved in

developing and implementing these technological avenues. It shows that the scale and extent of the

change achieved in all sectors to date fall far short of what is required to stay on the 1.5°C pathway.

Most of the progress so far has been made in the power sector, where advances in technology, policy

and innovation have taken us a long way.

Current energy structures were designed to support fossil fuels and must be re-designed to support

renewable energy systems. The emphasis must shift from supply to demand, toward overcoming

the structural obstacles that impede progress. This preview outlines three priority pillars - physical

infrastructure; policy and regulatory enablers; and a well-skilled workforce - that must be addressed

simultaneously, requiring significant investment and a new paradigm for international co-operation in

which all actors can engage in the transition and play an optimal role.

There is no time for a new energy system to evolve gradually over more than a century - as was the

case for the fossil fuel-based system. We simply cannot continue with incremental changes if we are

to achieve the necessary reductions in carbon emissions to meet climate goals. The Global Stocktake

concluding at COP28 in the United Arab Emirates presents the opportunity to assess requirements and

determine the best path to rapid, lasting change. To this end, the forthcoming World Energy Transitions

Outlook will provide a comprehensive assessment of the energy transition and propose effective ways

to accelerate progress following this important climate action milestone.

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WORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK20231.5°CPATHWAYPREVIEWABOUTIRENATheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)servesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,arepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledge,andadriverofactiononthegroundtoadvancethetransformationoftheglobalenergysystem.Aglobalintergovernmentalorganisationestablishedin2011,IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurity,andlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.www.irena.org©IRENA2023Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial.ISBN:978-92-9260-527-8CITATIONThispublicationisapreviewoftheforthcomingreport,IRENA(2023),WorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook2023:1.5°CPathway,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.Availablefordownload:www.irena.org/publicationsForfurtherinformationortoprovidefeedback:publications@irena.orgThedatapresentedhereinisaccurateatthetimeofpublication.Modellingresultsmaychangeaheadofthelaunchofthefullreport.DISCLAIMERThispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentproviders,providesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein.TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.Thedesignationsemployed,andthepresentationofmaterialherein,donotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries.PREVIEWWORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK2023FrancescoLaCameraDirector-General,IRENAMESSAGEFROMTHEDIRECTOR-GENERALTherecentSynthesisReportoftheIPCCSixthAssessmenthasdeliveredasoberingmessage-onethatleaveslittleambiguityastotheneedforimmediateaction.Thisdecade,oursuccessinreducinggreenhousegasemissionswilldeterminewhetherglobaltemperaturerisecanbelimitedto1.5°Coreven2°C.Withinthistimeframe,theonlyrealisticoptionavailableisaconsiderablescale-upofrenewableenergyandefficiencysolutions.TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency’s1.5°Cpathwaypositionselectrificationandefficiencyaskeytransitiondrivers,enabledbyrenewableenergy,cleanhydrogenandsustainablebiomass.ThispreviewoftheWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlookprovidesanoverviewoftheprogressachievedindevelopingandimplementingthesetechnologicalavenues.Itshowsthatthescaleandextentofthechangeachievedinallsectorstodatefallfarshortofwhatisrequiredtostayonthe1.5°Cpathway.Mostoftheprogresssofarhasbeenmadeinthepowersector,whereadvancesintechnology,policyandinnovationhavetakenusalongway.Currentenergystructuresweredesignedtosupportfossilfuelsandmustbere-designedtosupportrenewableenergysystems.Theemphasismustshiftfromsupplytodemand,towardovercomingthestructuralobstaclesthatimpedeprogress.Thispreviewoutlinesthreeprioritypillars-physicalinfrastructure;policyandregulatoryenablers;andawell-skilledworkforce-thatmustbeaddressedsimultaneously,requiringsignificantinvestmentandanewparadigmforinternationalco-operationinwhichallactorscanengageinthetransitionandplayanoptimalrole.Thereisnotimeforanewenergysystemtoevolvegraduallyovermorethanacentury-aswasthecaseforthefossilfuel-basedsystem.Wesimplycannotcontinuewithincrementalchangesifwearetoachievethenecessaryreductionsincarbonemissionstomeetclimategoals.TheGlobalStocktakeconcludingatCOP28intheUnitedArabEmiratespresentstheopportunitytoassessrequirementsanddeterminethebestpathtorapid,lastingchange.Tothisend,theforthcomingWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlookwillprovideacomprehensiveassessmentoftheenergytransitionandproposeeffectivewaystoaccelerateprogressfollowingthisimportantclimateactionmilestone.4Theenergytransitionisoff-track.TheaftermathoftheCOVID-19pandemicandtherippleeffectsoftheUkrainecrisishavefurthercompoundedthechallengesfacingthetransition.Thestakescouldnotbehigher-everyfractionofadegreeinglobaltemperaturechangecantriggersignificantandfar-reachingconsequencesonnaturalsystems,humansocietiesandeconomies.Achievingthenecessarycourse-correctionintheenergytransitionwillrequirebold,transformativemeasuresthatreflecttheurgencyofthepresentsituation.CurrentpledgesandplansfallwellshortofIRENA’s1.5°Cpathwayandwillresultinanemissionsgapof16gigatonnes(Gt)in2050.NationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs),long-termlowgreenhousegasemissiondevelopmentstrategies(LT-LEDs)andnet-zerotargets,iffullyimplemented,couldreducecarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsby6%by2030and56%by2050,comparedto2022levels.However,mostclimatepledgesareyettobetranslatedintodetailednationalstrategiesandplans,implementedthroughpoliciesandregulations,orsupportedwithsufficientfunding.AccordingtoIRENA'sPlannedEnergyScenario,1theemissionsgapisprojectedtoreach35Gtby2050,underscoringtheurgentneedforcomprehensiveactiontoacceleratethetransition.2AlthoughglobalinvestmentacrossallenergytransitiontechnologiesreachedarecordhighofUSD1.3trillionin2022,annualinvestmentmustmorethanquadrupletoremainonthe1.5°Cpathway.AcumulativeUSD150trillionisrequiredtorealisethe1.5°Ctargetby2050(Figure1),averagingoverUSD5trillioninannualterms.ComparedwiththePlannedEnergyScenario-underwhichacumulativeinvestmentofUSD103trillionisrequired-anadditionalUSD47trillionincumulativeinvestmentisrequiredby2050toremainonthe1.5°Cpathway.AroundUSD1trillionofannualinvestmentsinfossilfuelbasedtechnologiescurrentlyenvisagedinthePlannedEnergyScenariomustthereforeberedirectedtowardsenergytransitiontechnologiesandinfrastructure.Cumulativeinvestmentsbetweennowand2030needtototalUSD44trillion,withenergytransitiontechnologiesrepresenting80%oftheinvestment,orUSD35trillion.TotalcumulativeenergysectorinvestmentsinthePlannedEnergyScenariountil2030areUSD29trillion.AnadditionalcumulativeinvestmentofUSD15trillion-oranannualaverageinvestmentofUSD1.9billion-wouldbeneededinthe1.5°CScenariountil2030.Furthermore,achangeinthevolumeandtypeofinvestmentsisrequiredunderthe1.5°CScenariotoprioritisetheenergytransitionandsetthestageforadramaticdecreaseinthefossilfuelshareby2050(Figure1).1ForabriefoverviewofthetwoscenariosemployedintheWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook,seeinsiderearcover,page23.2ThepresentIRENAscenariosincludeCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelcombustion,wasteincinerationandindustrialprocesses.COPannouncementsreflectedinNationallyDeterminedContributions[NDCs]asof5November2022,long-termlowgreenhousegasemissiondevelopmentstrategies[LT-LEDs]andnet-zerotargetsasof5October2022alsoincludeland-useemissions.KEYMESSAGESWORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK20235Annualinvestmentsacrossallenergytransitiontechnologiesmustmorethanquadrupletoremainonthe1.5°Cpathway.PREVIEWFIGURE1Totalinvestmentbytechnologicalavenuefrom2023to2050forachievingthe1.5°CScenarioPlannedEnergyScenario1.5°CScenario2023-20502023-2050PowergridsandenergyﬂexibilityCarbonremoval,captureandstoragemeasures–CCSandBECCS(incl.transportandstorage)ElectriﬁcationinendusesEnergyconservationandeciencyFossilfuelsandnuclear-powerFossilfuel-supplyRenewables-directusesanddistrictheat1501209060300Hydrogenanditsderivatives(incl.infrastructure)Renewables-powergenerationUSD+47trillionor+1.7trillionperyearCumulativeenergysectorinvestments,2023-2050(USDtrillion)USD103trillionUSD150trillionNotes:CCS=carboncaptureandstorage;BECCS=bioenergy,carboncaptureandstorage.6Existingrenewablepowertargetswouldincreasetotalrenewablepowercapacityto5.4terawatts(TW)by2030,representinglessthanhalfofthe11.2TWneededfora1.5°Cpathway.Thereissignificantscopeforaligningandstrengtheningtargetsintheshorttermtoprovidepolicyclarityandcertainty.Inmanycases,targetsinnationalenergyplansareyettobealignedwiththoseinNDCs.Inaddition,targetsshouldbemeasurableandcoverendusesbeyondpower.Ofthe183PartieswithrenewableenergycomponentsintheirNDCs,only143hadaquantifiedtarget-108forpowerand31forheatingandcooling,transportorcooking(IRENA,2022).Someprogressisbeingmade,notablyinthepowersector,withrenewablesrepresenting83%ofcapacityadditionsandreaching40%ofinstalledpowergenerationgloballyin2022.Atotalof295gigawatts(GW)ofrenewableswasaddedworldwidein2022,thelargest-everannualincreaseinrenewableenergycapacity(IRENA,2023a).Thestrongbusinesscaseforrenewables,coupledwithsupportiveenablingpolicies,hassustainedanupwardtrendintheirshareoftheglobalenergymix.However,overalldeploymentremainscentredonalimitednumberofcountiesandregions,withChina,theEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesaccountingfor75%ofcapacityadditions.Althoughlarge-scaledeploymentsofrenewableenergyaretypicallyassociatedwithcountriesthathavewell-developedpowersystems,itisessentialtoexpanddeploymentelsewhere,especiallyindevelopingnationsthatlackaccesstoelectricity.FIGURE2Annualpowercapacityexpansion,2002-2022Newcapacitynon-renewables(GW)Newcapacityrenewables(GW)Annualcapacityinstallations(GW20142002201620102018200620042012200820202022807060504030201002402101801501209060300ShareofnewelectricitygeneratingcapacityNewcapacityrenewableshare(%)RenewablesshareinnewcapacityAnnualcapacityinstallations(GW/yr)2014200220162010201820062004201220082020202250%15%59%37%57%23%28%52%38%82%83%300225150750Newcapacitynon-renewables(GW)Newcapacityrenewables(GW)WORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK20237Moreinvestmentsneedtoflowintodevelopingandemergingmarketstomaketheenergytransitionmoreinclusive.Renewableenergyinvestmentremainsconcentratedinalimitednumberofcountriesandfocusedononlyafewtechnologies.InvestmentinrenewablesreachedUSD0.5trillionin2022;however,thisislessthanone-thirdoftheaverageinvestmentneededeachyearinrenewablesunderthe1.5°CScenario.Furthermore,in2022,85%ofglobalrenewableenergyinvestmentbenefittedlessthan50%oftheworld’spopulationandAfricaaccountedforonly1%ofadditionalcapacityin2022(IRENAandCPI,2023;IRENA,2023a).Investmentsinoff-gridrenewableenergysolutionsin2021amountedtoUSD0.5billion(IRENAandCPI,2023),farbelowtheUSD15billionneededannuallyto2030.Whilemanytechnologychoicesexist,mostinvestmentswereinsolarPVandwindpower,with95%channelledtowardthesetechnologies(IRENAetal.,2023).Greatervolumesoffundingneedtoflowtootherenergytransitiontechnologiessuchasbiofuels,hydropowerandgeothermalenergy,aswellastosectorsbeyondpowerthathavelowersharesofrenewablesintotalfinalenergyconsumption(e.g.heatingandtransport).Everyyear,thegapbetweenwhatisrequiredandwhatisimplementedcontinuestogrow.IRENA’senergytransitionindicators(seeTable1)showsignificantaccelerationisneededacrossenergysectorsandtechnologies,fromdeeperend-useelectrificationoftransportandheat,todirectrenewableuse,energyefficiencyandinfrastructureadditions.DelaysonlyaddtothealreadyconsiderablechallengeofmeetingIPCC-definedemissionreductionlevelsin2030and2050fora1.5°Ctrajectory(IPCC,2022).Thelackofprogresswillalsoincreasefutureinvestmentneedsandthecostsofworseningclimatechangeeffects.PREVIEW8WORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK2023IndicatorsRecentyears2050Progress(O/ontrack)2030IndicatorsRecentyears2050Progress(O/ontrack)2030ShareofrenewablesinelectricitygenerationRenewablepowercapacityadditionsAnnualsolarPVadditionsAnnualwindenergyadditionsInvestmentneedsforREgenerationELECTRIFICATIONWITHRENEWABLEScontinuedShareofrenewablesinﬁnalenergyconsumptionSolarthermalcollectorareaModernuseofbioenergy(directuse)Geothermalconsumption(directuse)RenewablesbaseddistrictheatgenerationInvestmentneedsforrenewablesendusesanddistrictheatDIRECTRENEWABLESINEND-USESANDDISTRICTHEATInvestmentneedsforpowergridsandﬂexibilityEnergyintensityimprovementRENEWABLESY28%91%67%34%295GW/yr975GW/yr1066GW/yr191GW/yr551GW/yr615GW/yr75GW/yr329GW/yr335GW/yr1382USDbillion/yr1300USDbillion/yr486USDbillion/yr216USDbillion/yr269USDbillion/yr13USDbillion/yr790USDbillion/yr548USDbillion/yr274USDbillion/yr19%83%746millionm2/yr3700millionm2/yr1.5EJ56EJ44EJ2.2EJ12EJ1700millionm2/yr0.6%/yr3.5%/yr0.4EJ0.9EJ4.3EJ1.3EJ2)3)1)1)1)1)4)5)6)8)9)10)11)12)14)13)28)27)27)27)7)TABLE1Trackingprogressofkeyenergysystemcomponentstoachievethe1.5°Cscenario9PREVIEWIndicatorsRecentyears2050Progress(O/ontrack)2030continuedNotes:seenextpageRenewablesbaseddistrictheatgenerationInvestmentneedsforrenewablesendusesanddistrictheatShareofdirectelectricityinﬁnalenergyconsumptionPassengerelectriccarsontheroadInvestmentsneedsforcharginginfrastructureofEV'sandEVadoptionsupportInvestmentneedsforheatpumpsCleanhydrogenproductionElectrolysercapacityInvestmentneedsforcleanhydrogenandderivativesinfrastructureCleanhydrogenconsumption-industryCCS/CCUtoabateemissionsinindustryBECCSandotherstoabateemissionsinindustryInvestmentneedsforcarbonremovalandinfrastructureEnergyintensityimprovementrateENERGYEFFICIENCYELECTRIFICATIONHYDROGENCCSANDBECCS29%Investmentneedsforenergyconservationandeciency1493USDbillion/yr1772USDbillion/yr295USDbillion/yr0.01GtCO2captured/yr0.002GtCO2captured/yr1.0GtCO2captured/yr0.7GtCO2captured/yr216USDbillion/yr269USDbillion/yr13USDbillion/yr12EJ0.6%/yr2.9%/yr3.5%/yr30USDbillion/yr170USDbillion/yr1.1USDbillion/yr80USDbillion/yr107USDbillion/yr6.4USDbillion/yr18USDbillion/yr0.9EJ4.3EJ51%40EJ22%10.5million355million2180million364USDbillion/yr141USDbillion/yr518Mt/yr21.4Mt/yr0.7Mt/yr5722GW0.5GW2.4EJ1)1)12)14)15)29)30)31)16)17)18)22)0.04EJ23)24)25)20)13)28)258USDbillion/yr19)21)26)64USDbillion/yr233GW3.0GtCO2captured/yr1.0GtCO2captured/yr266USDbillion/yr(contd.)TABLE1Trackingprogressofkeyenergysystemcomponentstoachievethe1.5°Cscenario10Policymakersneedtostriketherightbalancebetweenreactivemeasuresandproactiveenergytransitionstrategiesthatpromoteamoreresilient,inclusiveandclimate-safesystem.Severaloftherootcausesofthecurrentcrisesstemfromthefossilfuelbasedenergysystem,suchasoverdependenceonalimitednumberoffuelexporters,inefficientandwastefulenergyproductionandconsumption,andthelackofaccountingforenvironmentalcosts.Anenergytransitionbasedonrenewablescanreduceoreliminatemanyofthese.Itisthereforethespeedofthechangethatwilldeterminethelevelsofenergysecurityandeconomicandsocialresilienceatthenationallevelandoffernewopportunitiesforimprovedhumanwelfareglobally.Morecanbedoneintheshortterm.Whiletheenergytransitionundoubtedlyrequirestime,thereissignificantpotentialtoimplementmanyoftheavailabletechnologyoptionstoday.Upwardtrendsinthedeploymentofthesesolutionsdemonstratethatthetechnicalandeconomiccaseissound.However,comprehensivepoliciesareneededacrossallsectorstorampupdeployment,aswellastoinstigatethesystemicandstructuraloverhaulrequiredtorealiseclimateanddevelopmentobjectives.WORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK2023Table1notes:[1]Averageannualinvestmentsrequirementtoreachthe1.5°Ctargetduringtheperiod2023-2030and2023-2050areshownintheinvestmentsrowsunder2030and2050respectively.AllinvestmentfiguresforrecentyearsareincurrentUSD;theparticularsofrecentyearsusedfortheindicatorsare:[2]2020;[3]2022;[4]2022;[5]2022;[6]2022;[7]2022;[8]2020;[9]2021;[10]2020;[11]2020;[12]2020;[13]2022;[14]2019;[15]2021;[16]2020;[17]2022;[18]2022;[19]2022;[20]2021;[21]2022;[22]2022;[23]2021;[24]2022;[25]2022;[26]2022;[27]netcapacityadditionsfor2030and2050areexcludingreplacementstockforend-of-lifeunits;[28]futureinvestmentsneededinrenewablesinenduses,districtheating,biofuelsandbio-basedinnovativefuels;[29]futureinvestmentsinenergyconservationandefficiencyincludethoseinbio-basedplasticsandorganicmaterials,chemicalandmechanicalrecyclingandenergyrecovery;[30]futureinvestmentsneededinelectrolysers,infrastructure,H2stations,bunkeringfacilitiesandlong-termstorage;[31]futuredemandincludesenergyandnon-energyuses.CCS=carboncaptureandstorage;CCU=carboncaptureanduse;BECCS=bioenergy,carboncaptureandstorage;EV=electricvehicle;RE=renewableenergy;yr=year;m2=squaremeter;EJ=exajoule.11TheGlobalStocktakeatthe2023UnitedNationsClimateChangeConference(COP28)mustserveasacatalystforscalingupactionoverthefollowingfiveyearstoimplementexistingenergytransitionoptions.Whilstplanningmustprovideroomforinnovationandadditionalpolicyaction,asignificantscaleupofexistingsolutionsisparamount.Forexample,advancingefficiencyandelectrificationbasedonrenewablesisacost-effectiveavenueforthepowersector,aswellasfortransportandbuildings.Cleanhydrogenanditsderivatives,andsustainablebiomasssolutions,alsooffervarioussolutionsforenduses.Energyefficiency,electrification,gridexpansionandflexibilitymeasuresmustbeprioritisedinthecomingyears.Energyefficiencyinend-usesectorsrequiresanaverageannualinvestmentofUSD1.8trillionunderthe1.5°CScenario.Electrificationofend-usesectors,hydrogen,directuseofrenewablesanddistrictheatwillrequireanadditionalUSD0.75trillionannually.Acceleratedend-usesectorelectrificationwillneedtobecombinedwithacontinuousdrivetogrowrenewablepowercapacity,withanallocationofsomeUSD1.3trillionannually.Thisgrowthrequirescommensurateelectricitynetworkexpansionandmodernisation,atacostofUSD0.5trillionannually.Bycomparison,cumulativeannualinvestmentinfossilfuelsupplyandpowercapacityinthesameperiodwouldamounttoUSD1trillion,halvingcurrenttrends.TheperiodfollowingCOP28willbepivotalforeffortstocurbclimatechangeandachievethesustainabledevelopmentgoalsoutlinedinthe2030Agenda.Theenergytransitioniscrucialfordeliveringoneconomic,socialandenvironmentalpriorities.Itisimperativeforgovernments,financialinstitutions,andtheprivatesectortourgentlyre-evaluatetheiraspirations,strategiesandimplementationplanstorealigntheenergytransitionwithitsintendedtrajectory(seeTable2).COP28needstocatalyseastepchangeinactionstoacceleratetheenergytransition.PREVIEW12TABLE2Short-termmeasurestodealwiththeenergycrisisandacceleratetheenergytransitionAmbition•Increaseambitionofnationalrenewableenergytargetsinlinewithclimategoals,increasedenergysecurityandimprovedaffordability.•Setambitiousrenewableenergytargetsandenergyefficiencytargetsinallenduses(electricity,heatingandcooling,transport).•Developeffectiveimplementationplansforalltargets.Institutions•Makeinstitutionsfitforthetransition:(e.g.newministerialstructures,cross-ministrytaskforces,updatedstatuteforregulators).•Reformtheexistinglendingpracticesofdevelopmentfinanceinstitutionsbyprovidingmoregrantsandconcessionalloans,particularlyforcountriesthatfaceunder-investmentandmaybeindebtdistress.Physicalinfrastructure•Untertakeintegratedcross-sectorinfrastructureplanningfortheenergytransitionwithambitioustargetsforexpansion(e.g.powergrids,electricvehicle[EV]charginginfrastructure,heatnetworks,alllinkeduptooptimisevariablerenewableelectricity).•Provideincentivesforinfrastructureinvestmentswheremarketbarriersexist(e.g.heatnetworks,EVchargers).•Streamlinepermittingproceduresforlarge-scaleinfrastructurewithoutcompromisingenvironmentalandsocialimpactassessmentsandensurepublicacceptanceisfostered.•Setobligationsormandatorytargetsfornewbuildings(e.g.numbersofEVchargersperoccupant,connectiontoheatnetworks).•Providemorepublicfinanceforthedevelopmentoftheinfrastructurerequired(e.g.throughdirectownershipofassetssuchastransmissionlines).Jobsandskills•Integraterenewableenergyintoeducationalcurricula;expandtechnicalandvocationaleducationandtrainingopportunities.•Stepupeffortstoanticipatefutureoccupationalneedsineachrenewableenergysectorandworkwithindustryassociationsandtraininginstitutionstoaligntheirplanning.•Ensurebetteraccesstotrainingopportunitiesforwomen,youthandminorities.•Developpathwaysforfossilfuelindustryworkerstoretrainandrecertifyforcareersinrenewableenergy.Thiswillrequirepublicfundingfortraining.Finance•Increaseandchannelpublicfinancing–includingthroughinternationalcollaborationviaabroadspectrumofpolicies,coveringallsegmentsoftherenewableenergyvaluechain,thewiderenergysectorandtheeconomyasawhole.•Strategicallyplan,selectandimplementinstrumentstochannelpublicfinance(domesticandinternational)including(1)governmentspendingsuchasgrants,rebatesandsubsidies;(2)debtincludingexistingandnewissuances,creditinstruments,concessional/blendedfinancingandguarantees;(3)equityanddirectownershipofassets(suchastransmissionlinesorlandtobuildprojects).•Define‘risk’inamorecomprehensivewaythatgoesbeyondthenarrowinvestor-centricdefinitionofrisk(e.g.ofinvestmentinenergyassetsnotpayingoff)toincludebroaderenvironmentalandsocialrisks.•Continuetousepublicpolicyandfinancetocrowdinprivatecapital.continuedWORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK202313PREVIEW(contd.)TABLE2Short-termmeasurestodealwiththeenergycrisisandacceleratetheenergytransitionPowersector•Adoptapowersystemstructurethatisconducivetohighsharesofvariablerenewableenergy,recognisingtheirtechno-economiccharacteristics.Thiscouldincludedualprocurementofenergywithlong-termprocurementthroughauctionsandashort-termflexibilitymarket.•Streamlinepermittingproceduresforrenewablepowerprojectswithoutcompromisingenvironmentalandsocialimpactassessment.Ensurepublicacceptanceisfostered.•Bettersynchronisepowergridexpansionandotherinfrastructuredevelopmentswithrenewablepowerdeploymenttoavoidbottlenecks.•Designrenewableenergyprocurementprocesses(e.g.auctions)toserveobjectivesbeyondlowestprice(e.g.developmentoflocalindustry)andconsiderdesignelementstodistributetherisksofsupplychaindisruptionsamongstakeholders(e.g.indexationofcomponents).•Designpoliciesforself-consumptioninaprogressivewaythatsupportsequitableaccesstosupportforthedeploymentofsolutionsandthedistributionofsocio-economicbenefits.End-usesectors–buildings,industry,transport•Developenergyefficiencyprogrammesandmeasuressuchasstandardsintransport,industry,andbuildings.Increasefinanceforenergyefficiencythrougheffortstoaggregateprojectsandde-riskinvestment.•Promotereadinessfornewfuelsandelectrification(e.g.EVchargers,seealsoPhysicalInfrastructure).•Behaviourchanges:incentiviseslowerdrivingusingspeedlimits,mandateroomtemperaturelimits(e.g.officesandpublicbuildings),reduceindividualcarusagebypromotingpublictransportandcar-sharing;preferhigh-speedandnighttrainstoaircraftwherepossible.Cross-sectorandcross-cuttingpolicies•Introducefiscalpolicymeasures:obligationsforreinvestingwindfallprofitsoffossilfuelenergyrevenuesinenergytransitiontechnologies,reducedsubsidiesforfossilfuelsandraised/newlyintroducedCO2priceswhenfossilfuelpricesfall.Ensurethesocio-economicbenefitsofsuchinstrumentsaredistributedfairly.Reformtaxesandleviesonheatingfuels,VATexemptionsforrenewables,etc.•Developnationalbioenergyand/orhydrogenstrategies(includingsectoralprioritisation)toensurebioenergyandhydrogencanplaythemostappropriateroleindecarbonisation.•Incentivise/mandateacirculareconomyapproach(reduce,re-use,recycle),forexampleforenergy-intensiveproductslikesteel,renewableenergytechnologies,batteries,cars,etc.Thiswillbothreduceenergydemandandthedemandforcriticalmaterials.•Enhanceinternationalcollaborationacrossarangeofrelevantareasincludingsustainabilitygovernance,energyandclimatefinance,technologyandinnovation,regionalpowergrids,greenhydrogendevelopment.•Putgreaterfocus(includingthroughinternationalcollaboration)onachievingtheuniversalaccesstargetsofSDG7.14Aprofoundandsystemictransformationoftheglobalenergysystemmustoccurwithin30years.Thiscondensedtimeframenecessitatesastrategicshiftthatexpandsbeyondthefocusondecarbonisationofsupplytowarddesigninganenergysystemthatnotonlyreducescarbonemissionsbutalsosupportsaresilientandinclusiveglobaleconomy.Asaresult,planningneedstoextendbeyondbordersandthenarrowconfinesoffuelstofocusontherequirementsofthenewenergysystemandtheeconomiesitwillsustain.Focusingonthedemandforcleanenergyandtheenablersofarenewables-dominatedsystemcanhelpaddressthestructuralbarriersthathinderprogressintheenergytransition.Pursuingfuelandsectoralmitigationmeasuresisnecessarybutinsufficienttotransitiontoanenergysystemfitforthedominanceofrenewables.Fromenergyproductionandtransportationtoprocessingcoal,oilandgas,theglobalinfrastructurededicatedtoenergywillneedtochange.Thiswillhaveimpactsonpowergeneration,industrialproductionandmanufacturing,aswellasonrail,pipelines,shipyardsandothermeansofsupplyingfossilfuels.Switchingthefocusfromfuelstosystemsdesignwillhelpacceleratethedevelopmentofanewenergyinfrastructureandsustainitsimplementation.Theenergytransitioncansupportamovetowardamoreresilientandequitableworld.WORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK2023DEVELOPINGSTRUCTURESFORARENEWABLES-BASEDENERGYSYSTEM15Governmentscanproactivelyshapearenewables-basedenergysystem,overcometheflawsandinefficienciesofcurrentstructures,andmoreeffectivelyinfluenceoutcomes.Thesimultaneous,proactiveshapingofphysical,policyandinstitutionalstructureswillbeessentialtorealisingdevelopmentandclimateobjectivestowardamoreresilientandequitableworld.Theseunderpinningsshouldformthepillarsofthestructurethatsupportstheenergytransitionasfollows:PHYSICALINFRASTRUCTURE:forward-lookingplanning,modernisationandexpansionofsupportinginfrastructureonlandandseatofacilitatethedevelopment,storage,distributionandtransmission,andconsumptionofrenewables.Itshouldfacilitatenational,regionalandglobalstrategiesfornewsupply-demanddynamicsandpromoteequityandinclusion.POLICYANDREGULATORYENABLERS:designofpolicyandregulatoryframeworksthatfacilitatedeployment,integrationandtradeofrenewables-basedenergy,shapesocio-economicoutcomesandpromoteequality.Theseneedtoenabledifferentlevelsoftheenergytransition,fromlocaltoglobal,andaccountfornewsupply-demanddynamics.WELL-SKILLEDWORKFORCE:capacityamonginstitutions,communitiesandindividualstoacquiretherequisiteskills,knowledgeandexpertisetodriveandsustaintheenergytransition.Anintegralaspectofthiswillbeensuringthatcommunitiesarewellinformedof,andabletoexercise,theirrightsascriticaltransitionstakeholders,andtoharnessitsbenefits.Physicalinfrastructureupgrades,modernisationandexpansionwillincreaseresilienceandbuildflexibilityforadiversifiedandinterconnectedenergysystem.Transmissionanddistributionwillneedtoaccommodateboththehighlylocalised,decentralisednatureofmanyrenewablefuels,aswellasdifferenttraderoutes.Planningforinterconnectorstoenableelectricitytrade,andshippingroutesforhydrogenandderivatives,mustconsidervastlydifferentglobaldynamicsandproactivelylinkcountriestopromotethediversificationandresilienceofenergysystems.Storagesolutionswillneedtobewidespreadanddesignedwithgeo-economicimpactsinmind.Publicacceptanceisalsocriticalforanylarge-scaleundertakingandcanbesecuredthroughprojecttransparencyandopportunitiesforcommunitiestovoicetheirperspectives.Policyandregulatoryenablersmustsystematicallyprioritisetheaccelerationoftheenergytransitionandareductionintheroleoffossilfuels.Today,theunderlyingpolicyandregulatorysystemsremainshapedaroundfossilfuels.Whileitisinevitablethatfossilfuelswillremainintheenergymixforsometime,theirsharemustdramaticallydecreaseasweapproachmid-century.Policyframeworksandmarketsshouldthereforefocusonacceleratingthetransitionandprovidetheessentialunderpinningsforaresilientandinclusivesystem.Awell-skilledworkforceisalynchpinofasuccessfulenergytransition.WorkbyIRENAandtheInternationalLabourOrganization(ILO)hasshownthattherenewableenergysectoremployedsome12.7millionpeopleworldwideasof2022,growingfromabout7.3millionin2012.Energytransitionmodellingindicatesthattensofmillionsofadditionaljobswilllikelybecreatedinthecomingdecadesasinvestmentsgrowandinstalledcapacitiesexpand.Abroadrangeofoccupationalprofileswillbeneeded.Fillingthesejobswillrequireconcertedactionineducationandskillsbuilding,andgovernmentshaveacriticalroleinco-ordinatingeffortstoaligntheofferingsoftheeducationalsectorwithprojectedindustryneeds-whetherintheformofvocationaltrainingoruniversitycourses.Toattracttalenttothesector,itiscrucialthatjobsaredecent,andthatwomen,youthandminoritieshaveequalaccesstojobtraining,hiringnetworksandcareeropportunities.PREVIEW16Net-zerocommitmentsmustbeembeddedinlegislationandtranslatedintoimplementationplansthatareadequatelyresourced.Withoutthiscrucialstep,climateannouncementsremainaspirational,andthenecessaryprogressoutofreach.Thecurrentenergysystemisdeeplywovenintosocio-economicstructuresthathaveevolvedovercenturies.ThismeanssignificantstructuralchangemustoccurinacondensedtimeframeoflessthanthreedecadestosuccessfullydeliveronthegoalsoftheParisAgreement.Energyinfrastructureislong-lived,soinvestmentinfixedinfrastructureshouldconsiderthelongterm.Everyinvestmentandplanningdecisionaroundenergyinfrastructuretodayshouldconsiderthestructureandgeographyofthelow-carboneconomyofthefuture.Electrificationofenduseswillreshapedemand.Renewablepowerwillrequireexistinginfrastructuretobemodernised,withgridreinforcementandexpansiononbothlandandsea.Greenhydrogenproductionwillalsooccurinlocationsotherthantoday’soilandgasfields.Thetechnicalchallengesandeconomiccostsofredesigninginfrastructureshouldbeaccountedfor,andtheenvironmentalandsocialaspectsadequatelyaddressedfromtheoutset.Energyinvestmentdecisionsshouldsimultaneouslydrivethetransitionandreducetheriskofstrandedassets.ThePlannedEnergyScenarioforeseescumulativeenergysector-wideinvestmentsofUSD103trillionbetween2023and2050,orUSD3.7trillionannually,onaverage,to2050.Around59%ofthisinvestmentisintendedforenergytransitiontechnologies-mostlyforrenewables,energyefficiency,electrification,hydrogen,andcarbonremovals.However,some41%ofplannedenergyinvestmentremainsaimedatfossilfuels;therefore,acombinationofscale-upandre-allocationofinvestmentinenergytransitiontechnologiesisneededtokeepthe1.5°Ctargetwithinreach.The1.5°CScenarioenvisageselectricitybecomingthemainenergycarrier,accountingforover50%oftotalfinalenergyconsumption(seeFigure3).Renewableenergydeployment,improvementsinenergyefficiencyandtheelectrificationofend-usesectorscontributetothisshift.Inaddition,modernbiomassandhydrogenareprojectedtoplaymoresignificantroles,with16%and14%oftotalfinalenergyconsumptionby2050,respectively.Notably,94%ofhydrogenconsumptionisexpectedtocomefromrenewables,indicatingagrowingrelianceoncleanenergysources.Thepathwayalsosuggeststhattotalfinalenergyconsumptioncoulddecreaseby15%from2020to2050,potentiallyindicatingatrendtowardsdecarbonisationandamoresustainableenergyfuture.WORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK2023THEWAYFORWARDPRIORITISINGBOLDANDTRANSFORMATIVEACTIONS17PREVIEWFIGURE3Breakdownoftotalfinalenergyconsumptionbyenergycarrierbetween2020and2050underthe1.5°CScenarioTFEC(%)20202050:Whereweneedtobe(1.5°CScenario)417EJTotalﬁnalenergyconsumption353EJTotalﬁnalenergyconsumption20%Electricity(direct)51%Electricity(direct)1%4%9%Traditionalusesofbiomass66%Fossilfuels16%Modernbiomassuses14%Hydrogen(directuseande-fuels)7%OthersFossilfuels12%ModernbiomassusesOthersRenewableshareinhydrogen94%91%Renewableshareinelectricity28%RenewableshareinelectricityNotes:Thefiguresaboveincludeonlyenergyconsumption,excludingnon-energyuses.Forelectricityuse,28%in2020and91%in2050aresourcedfromrenewablesources;fordistrictheating,thesharesare7%and95%,respectively;forhydrogen(directuseande-fuels),therenewableenergyshare(i.e.greenhydrogen)wouldreach94%by2050.ThecategoryHydrogen(directuseande-fuels)accountsfortotalhydrogenconsumption(greenandblue)andothere-fuels(e-ammoniaande-methanol).Electricity(direct)includestheconsumptionofelectricitythatisprovidedbyallsourcesofgeneration:renewable,nuclearandfossilfuelbased.TraditionalusesofbiomassrefertotheresidentialTFECofsolidbiofuelsinnon-OECDcountries.Modernbioenergyusesincludesolidbiomass,biogasandbiomethaneusedinbuildingsandindustry;andliquidbiofuelsusedmainlyintransport,butalsoinbuildings,industryandotherfinalconsumption.Remainingfossilfuelsin2050correspondtonaturalgas(mainlyusedinindustryandtransport,andtoalesserextentinbuildings),oil(mainlyinindustryandtransport,andtoalesserextentinbuildings)andcoal(correspondstousesinindustry-cement,chemicals,ironandsteel).Othersincludedistrictheatandotherrenewablesconsumption.EJ=exajoule;OECD=OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment;TFEC=totalfinalenergyconsumption.18Theshareofrenewableenergyintheworld'sprimaryenergysupplygrowsfrom16%in2020to77%in2050underthe1.5°CScenario,requiringanannualgrowthratethirteentimesthecurrentrate(Figure4).Thisgrowthisexpectedtostabiliseprimaryenergysupplyduetoincreasedenergyefficiencyandthegrowthofrenewables.Theenergymixwillchangedrasticallyintheprocess,withanetgainof61percentagepointsofrenewableenergyshare,drivenbyamixofend-useelectrification,renewablefuelsanddirectuse.Achievingthislevelofrenewableenergypenetrationiscriticaltomeetingglobalclimategoalsandwillrequiresignificantinvestmentandpolicysupport,aswellascontinuedinnovation.WORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK2023FIGURE4Totalprimaryenergysupplybyenergycarriergroup,2020-2050underthe1.5°CScenario202020502045204020352030TPES(EJ/yr)8006004002000700RenewablesNuclearFossilfuelsWhereweneedtobe(1.5°CScenario)-63p.p.-63p.p.79%79%5%5%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%7%7%16%16%34%34%47%47%59%59%69%69%77%77%60%60%47%47%35%35%25%25%16%16%+61p.p.+61p.p.Note:Renewablesincludebioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindinallforms(electricityandsyntheticfuels).Fossilfuelsincludecoal,oilandnaturalgas;p.p.=percentagepoints.19Electricitygenerationwillmorethantriplefrom2020to2050,with91%ofthetotalelectricitysupplycomingfromrenewablesources,comparedto28%in2020(seeFigure5).Coal-andoil-basedpowergenerationwillexperienceasharpdeclineoverthedecadebeforebeingphasedoutentirelybymid-century.By2050,naturalgaswillprovide5%oftotalelectricityneeds,withtheremainderbeingmetbynuclearpowerplants.Thetransitionfeaturesanimportantsynergybetweenincreasinglyaffordablerenewablepowertechnologiesandthewideradoptionofelectrictechnologiesforend-useapplications,especiallyintransportandheat.By2050,mostoftheworld'spowerwillbegeneratedfromrenewablesources.PREVIEWFIGURE5Powergenerationneedstomorethantripleby2050FossilfuelsFossilfuelsRenewablesRenewablesNuclearNuclear62%62%10%10%5%5%4%4%28%28%91%91%27.0PWh89.8PWh20202050:Whereweneedtobe(1.5-S)Grosselectricitygeneration(PWh)Grosselectricitygeneration(PWh)Notes:PWh=petawatthours.20Publicinvestmentstrategiesplayacriticalroleinacceleratingthespeedoftheenergytransition.Suchinvestmentsneedtonotonlyincreaseinvolume,butalsobeallocatedstrategicallytoguideprivateinvestmentdecisionsandserveasaneffectiveinstrumenttoshapetheenergytransitioninwaysthatmaximisebenefitsinthepublicinterest.Inaddition,publicprocurementprogrammesarebestplacedtosetstandardssothatenergyprojectsadheretolabourstandardsandenvironmentalsafeguards.Strongerpublicsectorinterventionisrequiredtochannelinvestmentstowardscountriesandtechnologiesinamoreequitableway.Some75%ofglobalinvestmentinrenewablesfrom2013to2020camefromtheprivatesector;butprivatecapitaltendstoflowtothetechnologiesandcountrieswiththeleastassociatedrisks,betheyrealorperceived.In2020,83%ofcommitmentsinsolarPVcamefromprivatefinance,whereasgeothermalandhydropowerreliedprimarilyonpublicfinance-only32%and3%ofinvestmentsinthesetechnologies,respectively,camefromprivateinvestorsin2020(IRENA&CPI,2023).Thegreaterneedforpublicfinanceinhydropowerislinkedtolargeupfrontinvestments,highconstructionrisks,theneedforlong-tenorloans(asprojectscantakeoveradecadetocomplete),complexandlengthypermittingprocedures,andhighsocialandenvironmentalrisks,allofwhichcansignificantlyhampertheabilityoftheprivatesectortofinancelargehydropowerprojects(IRENA,2023b).Forgeothermal,meanwhile,thehighcostsofsurfaceexplorationanddrillingrepresentthemainobstaclestoprivatesectorfinancing.Publicfinanceandpolicyshouldcontinuetobeusedtocrowdinprivatecapital,butgreatergeographicalandtechnologicaldiversityofinvestmentrequirestargetedandscaled-uppubliccontributions.Formanyyears,policyhasfocusedonmobilisingprivatecapital.Publicfundingisurgentlyneededtoinvestinbasicenergyinfrastructureinthedevelopingworld,aswellastodrivedeploymentinlessmaturetechnologies(especiallyinendusessuchasheatingandtransport,orsyntheticfuelproduction)andinareaswhereprivateinvestorsseldomventure.Otherwise,thegapininvestmentbetweentheGlobalNorthandtheGlobalSouthwillcontinuetowiden.In2015,renewableenergyinvestmentpercapitainNorthAmerica(excludingMexico)andEuropewasaround22timeshigherthaninSub-SaharanAfrica.Butby2021,investmentpercapitainEuropehadrisento41timesthatinSub-SaharanAfrica,andinNorthAmericaitwas57timesmore(seeFigure6).ThisispartlyexplainedbythefactthatSub-SaharanAfricainvestmentpercapitain2021hadfallentoalmosthalfits2015valueofUSD6perperson(IRENAandCPI,2023).Publicfinancinghasacriticalroletoplaytohelpachieveajustandinclusiveenergytransition.WORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK202321Ajustandinclusiveenergytransitionwillhelptoovercomedeepdisparitiesthataffectthequalityoflifeofhundredsofmillionsofpeople.Energytransitionpoliciesmustbealignedwithbroadersystemicchangesthataimtosafeguardhumanwell-being,advanceequityamongcountriesandcommunities,andbringtheglobaleconomyinlinewithclimate,broaderenvironmentalandresourceconstraints.Supportingdevelopingcountriestoacceleratetheenergytransitioncouldimproveenergysecuritywhilepreventingtheglobaldecarbonisationdividefromwidening.Adiverseenergymarketwouldreducesupplychainrisks,improveenergysecurityandensurelocalvaluecreationforcommodityproducers.Accesstotechnology,training,capacitybuildingandaffordablefinancewillbevitaltounlockthefullpotentialofcountries’contributionstotheglobalenergytransition,especiallyforthoserichinrenewablesandrelatedresources.Humanwelfareandsecuritymustremainattheheartoftheenergytransition.Systemicchangesbeyondtheenergysectorwillbeneededtoovercomepervasiveproblemsrelatedtohumanwelfareandsecurity,aswellasdeeplyembeddedinequalities;arenewables-basedenergytransitioncanhelpalleviatesomeoftheconditionsthatunderlytheseissues.Themoretheenergytransitioncanhelpsolvethesebroadchallenges,themoreitspopularacceptanceandlegitimacywillrise,providedalsothatcommunityneedsandinterestsarewellrepresentedandintegratedintotransitionplanning.PREVIEWFIGURE6GrowingdisparitiesinpercapitainvestmentbetweenSub-SaharanAfrica,EuropeandNorthAmericaInvestmentinrenewableenergypercapitaSub-SaharanAfricaEuropeNorthAmerica(excludingMexico)InvestmentinrenewableenergypercapitaSub-SaharanAfricaEuropeNorthAmerica(excludingMexico)2015202122times41times23times57times2015202122times127times23times179times22Toachieveasuccessfulenergytransition,internationalco-operationneedstobeenhancedandredesigned.Thecentralityofenergytotheglobaldevelopmentandclimateagendaisundisputed,andinternationalco-operationinenergyhasincreasedexponentiallyinrecentyears.Thisco-operationplaysadecisiveroleindeterminingtheoutcomesoftheenergytransitionandisacriticalavenueforachievinggreaterresilience,inclusionandequality.Thedynamismofenergysectorsandgeopoliticaldevelopmentsnecessitatesgreaterscrutinyofinternationalco-operationmodalities,instrumentsandapproachestoensuretheirrelevance,impactandagility.Theexpandingvarietyofactorsintheenergytransitionrequiresanassessmentofrolestoleveragerespectivestrengthsandefficientlyallocatelimitedpublicresources.Theimperativesofdevelopmentandclimateaction,coupledwithchangingenergysupplyanddemanddynamics,requirecoherenceandalignmentaroundpriorityactions.Forinstance,investmentinsystemsforcross-borderandglobaltradeofenergycommoditieswillrequireinternationalco-operationatanunprecedentedscale.Itis,therefore,essentialtoreconsidertherolesandresponsibilitiesofnationalandregionalentities,internationalorganisations,andinternationalfinancialinstitutionsandmultilateraldevelopmentbankstoensuretheiroptimalcontributiontotheenergytransition.AchievingtheenergytransitionwillrequirecollectiveeffortstochannelfundstotheGlobalSouth.In2020,multilateralandbilateraldevelopmentfinanceinstitutions(DFIs)providedlessthan3%oftotalrenewableenergyinvestments.Goingforward,theyneedtodirectmorefunds,atbetterterms,towardslarge-scaleenergytransitionprojects.Moreover,financingfromDFIswasprovidedmainlythroughdebtfinancingatmarketrates(requiringrepaymentwithinterestrateschargedatmarketvalue)whilegrantsandconcessionalloansamountedtojust1%oftotalrenewableenergyfinance(IRENA&CPI,2023).Theseinstitutionsareuniquelyplacedtosupportlarge-scaleandcross-borderprojectsthatcanmakeanotabledifferenceinacceleratingtheglobalenergytransition.REWRITINGINTERNATIONALCO-OPERATIONWORLDENERGYTRANSITIONSOUTLOOK2023231.5°CScenarioREFERENCESESMAP(2022),MiniGridsforHalfaBillionPeople:MarketOutlookandHandbookforDecisionMakers,WorldBank,Washington,D.C.,https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/b53273b6-b19a-578e-8949-8dc5c7a3cd79ESMAP,etal.(2022),Off-GridSolarMarketTrendsReport2022:Outlook,WorldBank,Washington,D.C.,https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099355110142233755/pdf/P17515005a7f550f1090130cf1b9f2b671e.pdfIPCC(2022),"SummaryforPolicymakers",ClimateChange2022:MitigationofClimateChange.ContributionofWorkingGroupIIItotheSixthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UK,andNewYork,NY,10.1017/9781009157926.001IRENA(2022),Renewableenergytargetsin2022:Aguidetodesign,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi,www.irena.org/Publications/2022/Nov/Renewable-energy-targets-in-2022IRENA(2023a),Renewablecapacitystatistics2023,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi,www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Mar/Renewable-capacity-statistics-2023IRENA(2023b),Thechangingroleofhydropower:Challengesandopportunities,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi,www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Feb/The-changing-role-of-hydropower-Challenges-and-opportunitiesIRENAandCPI(2023),Globallandscapeofrenewableenergyfinance2023,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyandClimatePolicyInitiative,AbuDhabi,www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Feb/Global-landscape-of-renewable-energy-finance-2023TheWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlookoutlinesavisionforthetransitionoftheenergylandscapetoreflectthegoalsoftheParisAgreement,presentingapathwayforlimitingglobaltemperatureriseto1.5°CandbringingCO2emissionstonetzerobymid-century.Thispreviewpresentshigh-levelinsightsfromtheforthcoming2023report,whichbuildsontwoofIRENA’skeyscenariostocaptureglobalprogresstowardmeetingthe1.5°Cclimategoal.ThePlannedEnergyScenarioistheprimaryreferencecaseforthisstudy,providingaperspectiveonenergysystemdevelopmentsbasedongovernments’energyplansandotherplannedtargetsandpoliciesinplaceatthetimeofanalysiswithafocusonG20countries.The1.5°CScenariodescribesanenergytransitionpathwayalignedwiththe1.5°Cclimategoal–thatis,tolimitglobalaveragetemperatureincreasebytheendofthepresentcenturyto1.5°C,relativetopre-industriallevels.Itprioritisesreadilyavailabletechnologysolutions,whichcanbescaledupatthenecessarypacetomeetthe1.5°Cgoal.1.5°CScenarioPlannedEnergyScenarioPREVIEWwww.irena.org

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