China’sGreenHydrogenNewEra:A2030RenewableHydrogen100GWRoadmapReport/September2022rmi.org/AuthorsTingLiWeiLiu,ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteYanmingWan,ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteZheWangMonroeZhangYanZhang,ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteAuthorslistedalphabetically.AllauthorsfromRMIunlessotherwisenoted.OtherContributorsJinLi,formerlyRMIShuyiLi,RMIChenjiangXiao,ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteLinZhang,ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteCarolineZhu,formerlyRMIContactsMonroeZhang,mzhang@rmi.orgYanZhang,zhangyan@h2cn.orgCopyrightsandCitationTingLi,WeiLiu,etal.,China’sGreenHydrogenNewEra:A2030RenewableHydrogen100GWRoadmap,RMI,ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstitute,2022,https://rmi.org/insight/chinas-green-hydrogen-new-era/.RMIvaluescollaborationandaimstoacceleratetheenergytransitionthroughsharingknowledgeandinsights.Wethereforeallowinterestedpartiestoreference,share,andciteourworkthroughtheCreativeCommonsCCBY-SA4.0license.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/.AllimagesarefromiStockunlessotherwisenoted.Acknowledgmentsauthorswarmlythankalltheexpertsandrepresentativesofcompanies,academia,andinstitutionswhocontributedtimeandexpertisetothisresearchthroughinterviewsandsupport.AuthorsandAcknowledgmentsrmi.org/AboutRMItransformsglobalenergysystemsthroughmarket-drivenprosperous,zero-carbonfutureforall.Weworkinthepolicymakers,communities,andnongovernmentalorganizationstoidentifyandscaleenergysysteminterventionsthatwillcutgreenhousegasemissionsatleastColorado;NewYorkCity;Oakland,California;Washington,AbouttheChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteTheChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteiscommittedtobuildinganational-levelhydrogenindustrythinktank,focusingontheconstructionofnewdigitalization,quality,andecologyinfrastructureinthehydrogenindustry,andactivelypromotingtheplanninganddesignofhydrogenpolicies,standardsformulation,andprojectdemonstrationsinChina.ItsachievementsincludethepublicationsGrowwithHydrogen,WhitePaperofHydrogenIndustryReport,HydrogenBigData,andHydrogenTopRunnerActionHydrogenStandardizationCollaborativeInnovationPlatformandHydrogenQualityJointLaboratory;andleadingtheChina-EuropeHydrogenTechnologyInnovationSpecialProjectoftheNationalEnergyAdministration.rmi.org/ExecutiveSummaryAchievingtheDualCarbonGoalsIndustrialContextNationalHydrogenPlanastheBlueprintforIndustryRenewableHydrogen100by2030DevelopmentModelOutlookLarge-ScaleDevelopmentwithMegaBasesOutlookonRegionalDevelopmentofRenewableHydrogenCapacitySuggestionsfortheNextStageofDevelopmentCarryoutHydrogenMegaBaseScaledDemonstrationstoDriveaRapidDeclineinCostsintheHydrogenValueChainConstructionofRenewableHydrogenProjectsIntegratetheHydrogenIndustryandExpertResourcestoPromotetheEstablishmentofIndustrialTechnologyStandardsEndnotes070747TableofContentsrmi.org/ExecutiveSummaryiChinahaslaunchedacomprehensivetransitionofitsenergysupplymixandconsumptiondemandtowardaclean,low-carbon,andsecureenergyfutureandhasbeguntofocusonbuildinganewzero-carbonenergysystemdominatedbyrenewableenergy.Alongwiththelarge-scaleapplicationofrenewablepower,renewablehydrogen—anewtypeofcleanenergy—willplayonlysolution,includingpetrochemicals,steel,heavyroadtransportation,shipping,andaviation.industrialtransformation,andlocalgovernmentshavegraduallyincorporatedhydrogenintotheirphasedcoreoflong-termdevelopmentofthehydrogenindustry.hydrogendevelopmentinthenearandmediumterminclude:region-focusedcoordinateddevelopment,iiThisstudyanalyzedandsettargetsforthreesectors—chemicals,steel,andtransportation—andsevenregions—NortheastChina,NorthChina,CentralChina,SouthChina,EastChina,NorthwestChina,andSouthwestChina.Inbuildingtheanalyticalmodel,thisstudyconsideredthechangeincapacitydemandofeachsectoruntilsectorandtheoutput,installedcapacity,keydevelopmentindustries,andsourcesofrenewablehydrogenineachregion,anditmakesrecommendationstopromotethedevelopmentofrenewablehydrogenindustryinsupportofthe“Medium-andLong-TermPlanfortheDevelopmentoftheHydrogenEnergyiiirmi.org/Themainconclusionsandrecommendationsare:••traditionalfossil-basedhydrogenproductioninthechemicalssectorandnewdemandcreatedbytechnologicalbreakthroughsinthesteelandtransportationsectors.•renewableresources,andinNorthChinaandEastChina,wherehydrogenisinhighdemandfromindustry.•Itisessentialtoreducethecostofvariouselementsinthehydrogenindustrythroughastrong,large-scaledemonstrationofthehydrogenvalleymodelandbyimprovingrenewablehydrogenindustryplanningforlocaldevelopmentconditions.•rmi.org/ImportanceofHydrogeninChina’sEnergyTransitionandAchievingtheDualCarbonGoalstheFutureInSeptember2020,theChinesegovernmentreleasedthedualcarbongoals,usheringinaneweraofenergyprocessontheconsumptionsidewillbeaccelerated.Atthesametime,heavyindustry,shipping,aviation,andotheremissions-intensiveindustrieswillremaindependentonconsumptionoffossilenergytoacertainextentandwillfacechallengesachievinglarge-scalerenewablepowerreplacementbecauseoftechnicalfeasibilityandcost.Therefore,thetransitionpathofChemicalsfeedstockChemicalsandpetrochemicalsIronandsteelCementAviationShippingRailHeavy-dutyroadLight-dutyroadBuildingsHydrogenAmmoniaBioenergySource:RMIanalysisSynfuelIndustrialwasteheatSolarthermal0%25%50%75%100%rmi.org/thesesectorswillrelyonnewcleanenergiessuchashydrogen,biomass,andsyntheticfuels.AccordingtoourHydrogeniswidelyusedasasecondaryenergysource,includingasanalternativeenergyinmultipleandfeedstockandforcarryingenergy.•Hydrogenismainlyusedinsuchsectorsasheavyroadtransportation,shipping,aviation,andpowergenerationasafuel.suchasoil,naturalgas,andcoal,hydrogenisacleanenergywithzeroemissionsandcanbeusedasfuelforheatingorpowersupply.Atpresent,theuseofhydrogenasfuelisstilllimitedglobally,mainlyhydrogenturbine,andinadequateinfrastructureandpolicystandards.•Hydrogenismainlyusedinsectorssuchassteelandchemicalsasfeedstock.Hydrogenisanimportantindustrialgas.Asoneofthebasicelementsofmanycompounds,itsstrongreducibilityisusedinmanychemicalreactions.Thechemicalssectoruseshydrogentoproducemethanolandammonia,ironsmeltinguseshydrogenasareducingagent,andmanyhigh-endmaterialsneedtousehydrogenintheirproductionprocesses.Exhibit2.RoleofhydrogeninthedecarbonizationroutesofeachsectorSource:RMIanalysisElectricityRoleofdecarbonizationoptionsBuildingSteelCementChemicalsLightroadtransportationHeavyroadtransportationShippingAviationElectricitysystemHydrogenBiomassCarboncaptureHydrogen-basedfuelsRelatedtohydrogenDirectreducedPotentialheatsourceHeatproductionHeatproductionandfeedstockLong-distancefreightLowertechreadinessHeatproductionShort-haulonlyShort-haulonlyAmmoniaBiojetfuelsBiogasforheatingPrimarilyasfeedstockShort-haulonlyShort-haulonlySynfuelHighercostIndustryTransportationNoroleSmallroleSomeroleMajorrolermi.org/•Hydrogenasismainlyusedinpowerstorageasanenergycarrier.Thestorageofliquidorgaseoushydrogenincertainenvironmentalconditionsandcontainersortheconversionofhydrogenintozero-carbontransition,hydrogenwillplayakeyroleinthedecarbonizationofthechemicals,steel,andheavyroadtransportationsectorsandwillgraduallyexpanditsapplicationsinshipping,aviation,otherInotherwords,thehydrogensupplywillbedominatedbylow-carbonandcleantechnologypathswithSource:RMIanalysis,basedonChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstitutedataof2020hydrogendemand352022MilliontonsH402002022204020502060ChemicalsHeavyroadtransportShippingLightroadtransportSteelAviationOtherindustriesPowerrmi.org/oftheTransitionHydrogenisunlikelytobeobtaineddirectlyfromnatureandinsteadneedstobeproducedthroughandwaterelectrolysis.Sofar,hydrogenasafeedstockandintermediateproductofchemicalproductionisstableoutput.Hydrogenproductionbywaterelectrolysisdependsoncleanenergyandhasthepotentialtoachievezerocarbon,waterelectrolysiswillbethemostimportantrouteforhydrogenproductionandneedstobedevelopedwithahigherpriority.However,waterelectrolysisforhydrogenproductionisstillinitsinitialcostthanthatofotherhydrogenproductionroutes.•Grayhydrogen:Hydrogenderivedfromfossilfuels,suchascoalandnaturalgas,withrelativelyhighemissionsbutalowcost.•Bluehydrogen:Hydrogenderivedfromfossilfuelsandequippedwithcarboncaptureandstorage•Greenhydrogen:Hydrogenproducedbyelectrolyzersviarenewablepower,suchassolarphotovoltaic•Hydrogenproducedthroughelectrolyzersvianuclearpower,whichusuallycanachievenear-zeroemissions,butlarge-scaledevelopmentismoredependentonthetechnologyanddevelopmentofnuclearpower.rmi.org/Toachievetheambitiousgoalofcarbonneutrality,itisnecessarytopromotethelarge-scaleapplicationofheavyindustry.Analysisofthescaleofapplicationsofhydrogeninvariousindustriesandtheoverallenergystructureunderthezero-carbonscenarioshowsthatmorethan20billiontonsofemissionsreductionsRenewablehydrogenwillbecomeamajorzero-carbonfeedstockinthetransportation,steel,andchemicalssectors.Inaddition,theestablishmentofthehydrogenindustrychaincanalsofullypromoteandoperatingexpenses.Exhibit4.Cumulativeemissionsreductionofhydrogenapplicationsbysector,2020–2060(100billiontons)Source:RMIanalysisRoadtransportation14.3Chemicals2.8Steel4.7Shippingandaviation1.3rmi.org/iiiproportionofrenewablehydrogenproductioninashorttime.Therefore,itisnecessarytomakeuseofhydrogenoverallinChina.•Shortterm:focusondiverseapplications,whileconsideringcompetitivenessandcleanliness.theshortterm,cultivateupstreamanddownstreamindustrialchainsofhydrogen,andpavetheroadforthepromotionandapplicationofgreenhydrogenwhilereducingthefulllife-cyclecost.•Basedonthegradualimprovementofinfrastructureandtheindustrialchain,thecostofrenewablehydrogenwillapproachthatofhydrogenproductionfromfossilenergy.Currently,itisnecessarytoguideandencourageproductionandapplicationthroughstrengthenedmarketmechanismsandpolicymeasures,andgraduallyrealizethetransitiontowardrenewablehydrogenuseinvariousapplications.•Longterm:achievetheintegrationofrenewablehydrogenandthepowersectorwithacomprehensivebreakthrough.Withthefurtheroptimizationofcostandimprovementsintechnology,itisnecessarytocontinuetodeveloptheindustrialchain,optimizetheenvironmentofrenewablehydrogenproductionandconsumption,thenpromotetheapplicationofrenewablehydrogeninkeyindustriestofullyrealizethereplacementoffossilenergybyrenewablehydrogeninheavyindustryandlong-distancetransportation.iiiInformationprovidedbytheChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteforthepurposeofthisresearch.rmi.org/“RenewableHydrogen100”withinChina’sGeneralPolicyandIndustrialContextAtthesametime,allprovinceshaveincorporatedpolicyandindustrialframeworkforhydrogendevelopment.renewablehydrogenasthecorehasbeenemphasized,andoverallplanninghasbeencompletedfromtheperspectiveofthewholeindustrialchain,includingproduction,storage,transportation,andinfrastructure,highlightingthemajorroleofthemarketandprovidinganactionguideforthehigh-qualitydevelopmentofthehydrogenindustry.2•transportation,andstorage.Ahydrogensupplysystemshouldbeestablishedwithindustrial•productionshouldbewidelypromotedtosupporttherealizationofthecarbonpeakinggoal.•environment,coveringtransportation,energystorage,andindustry,shouldbeestablished.Theshareofrenewablehydrogenplayinganimportantroleinsupportingthegreenenergytransitionanddevelopment.rmi.org/inthefuture:•hydrogen,aswellascoretechnologiesinhydrogenproduction,storage,andtransportation,andtodevelopatechnicalsupportplatformforindustrialinnovationandatalentscultivationmechanism.•Coordinatedevelopmentofhydrogeninfrastructure.Planforinfrastructure,focusingonproductionandbasedonhowdevelopmentoftheindustryisprogressing.Selecttheoptimaltechnicalpathwayofhydrogenproductionaccordingtolocationofresources.Prioritizetheuseofindustrialbyproducthydrogenandencouragenearbyconsumption.Atthesametime,activelypromotepilotanddemonstrationprojectsofhydrogenproductionfromrenewableenergysources.Setuphydrogenproductionbasesinareaswithlarger-scalehydrogenconsumption,andgraduallypromotethesystematicplanningofstorageandtransportationandthehydrogenrefuelingnetwork.•Steadilypromotediversedemonstrationapplicationsofhydrogen.Identifytransportation,energystorage,distributedpowergeneration,andindustrialapplicationsascoreapplicationscenarios.establishlarge-scaledevelopmentthroughpilotdemonstrationprojects.•Speedupandimproveasystemofpoliciesandinstitutionstosupportdevelopmentofthehydrogenindustry.tosystematicallyimprovethesupportingpoliciesforthelarge-scaleproductionandconsumptionofhydrogenandrenewablehydrogenatthenationalandlocallevels.Setandstrictlyimplementstandardhydrogenproduction,storage,transmission,andusesystems,andactivelyexperimentonthestorage,andthetradingmechanism.industryandfacilitatedthedeployment,promotion,andapplicationoftheindustrialchainofhydrogen,especiallyrenewablehydrogen,inthenextstage.Theprincipleofcleanandlow-carbondevelopmenthasbeenestablished,withemphasisondevelopinghydrogenproductionfromrenewableenergy.Itincludesstrictlycontrollinghydrogenproductionfromfossilenergyandsettinggreenandlow-carbondevelopmenttargetsforthehydrogenindustry.TechnicaltasksrelatedtohydrogenproductionfromrenewableenergyimproveandacceleratehydrogenTheplanrecommendsthefollowing:•Coordinateandpromotetheconstructionofaclean,low-carbon,andlow-costhydrogenproductionsystem.•Prioritizetheuseofindustrialbyproducthydrogeninareaswherecoking,chlor-alkali,andpropanedehydrogenationindustriesareclustered.rmi.org/•Prioritizethedemonstrationofhydrogenproductionbyrenewableenergyinareasrichinsolar,wind,andhydroresources.•Establishapolicyandinstitutionalguaranteesystemforsupportinggreenandlow-carbondevelopmentofhydrogen.•Studyandexplorepoliciesforpreferentialpowerpricesforhydrogenproductionfromrenewableenergytopromotetheoptimizationofacleanandlow-carbonstandardsystem.Second,theplanattachesgreatimportancetodemonstrationsofdiverseapplicationsofhydrogen.Demonstrationsofhydrogenapplicationswillbepromotedinanorderlymannerinthetransportationapplicationmodelofwind,solar,andhydropowerplushydrogenenergystorage.Diverseapplicationsinthepowergenerationsectorshouldbecoordinatedtodeploydistributedheatandpowercogenerationmicrogridsofhydrogenandpower.ApplicationsofhydrogenintheindustrialsectorshouldexplorethedemonstrationofreplacingfossilenergywithhydrogenproductionfromrenewableenergyinindustriesFinally,theplancreatesanunprecedentedopportunityforthedevelopmentofhydrogen,movingscenarios.theimportanceofbuildinganindustrialsystem,encourageslocalgovernmentstoformulatesupportivepoliciesanddesigninfrastructure,andestablishesthemainroleofthemarket,thusopeningupspaceproductionandapplicationsandactivelypromotesindustriesandregionstocarryoutlarge-scalepilotdemonstrationsandbecomeacceleratorsforthedevelopmentofthewholeindustry.Withincreasingtheshareofrenewablehydrogenproductionastheultimategoal,theplanaimstoimprovethetechnologyandinfrastructurealongthehydrogenproductionchainandcreateopportunitiesforthelarge-scaleapplicationofrenewablehydrogenbysupportingpolicymeasures,helpingtoaccelerateBeyondtheplan,thedevelopmentofthehydrogenindustrystillneedsfurtherdetailedguidelinesandrenewablehydrogenproductionandinstallationtargetsonregionandsectorlevelsshouldbeclearlySecond,giventheguidingprinciplesoftheplantopromotehigh-qualityindustrialdevelopmentandcoordinatedinfrastructurebuild-outandtoavoidherdbehavior,newdevelopmentgoalsareneededthatstrengtheningthefocusandbreakthroughsofregionalandlocalindustrialdevelopment.rmi.org/reductionshouldbeevaluatedinlarge-scalecommercialhydrogenapplications.Thescaleddevelopmentofpilotdemonstrationsineachapplicationscenarioshouldbealignedwiththecostofhydrogenproductionandapplication.Targetsformedium-andlong-termapplicationsofhydrogen,especiallyrenewablehydrogen,shouldbesettoencouragethehydrogenindustrytoenhanceitscompetitiveness.Settingthe100GWRenewableHydrogenCapacityby2030TargettoDriveRapidApplicationofGreenHydrogeninIndustriespolicysystemsinvariousindustriesandregionsareincomplete.Thepilotanddemonstrationprojectstime,inkeydevelopmentareasofhydrogenandrenewablehydrogen,individualcompaniesalreadyareconductingmajorpilotprojects.Butbusinesscooperationbetweenupstreamanddownstreamcannotbeachieved.isproposingatargetframeworkforrenewablehydrogenproductionandinstallationinthetransitioninitiativeandproposedthattheinstalledcapacityofrenewablehydrogenelectrolyzersinChinacouldthepotentialofrenewablehydrogentomeettheincreasingdemandforhydrogenandgraduallyreplacefossilfuelsforhydrogenproduction,theoptimizationoftechnologiesandcosts,andtheimprovementofinfrastructuredevelopment,thetargetisexpectedtoprovideaforward-lookingreferenceforthedevelopmentofpolicyandindustry.The100GWinstalledcapacitytargetisguidedbythegoalofcarbonneutralityby2060rmi.org/Intermsofdemandforthehydrogenindustry,theshareofhydrogenintheoverallenergysystembecauseofthehighcostofeachsegment,theestablishmentofaforward-lookingtargetcouldacceleratesocietyasawhole.Developmentofrenewablehydrogencapacityunder100GWscenariosSource:RMIanalysisinenergyconsumption.accumulatedinstalledcapacitygrowsbyenergyconsumptionisnonfossilfuel.0RatioofnonfossilfuelintotalenergyconsumptionNonfossilfuelenergyRenewableenergyusedforhydrogenproductionElectrolyzerinstalledElectrolyzerinstalled400202020352050202520402055203020452060200rmi.org/Atpresent,boththequantityandscaleofhydrogenproductionprojectsfromwaterelectrolysisareregionisgraduallybecomingaleaderinrenewablehydrogenprojectsdevelopment.Accordingtothecompletedworldwide.Thesolar-poweredwaterelectrolysishydrogenproductiondemonstrationprojectinNingxia,nowinprojectsareunderconstruction.andsolarresources,suchasInnerMongolia,Ningxia,Xinjiang,andJilin.TheSOEswillplayanimportantoverallmarket.structures,optimizedproductioncapacity,increasedreplacementofrenewablehydrogeninthechemicalssector,andthegradualemergenceofrenewablehydrogeninthesteel,transportation,andenergystoragerenewablehydrogenwillreachabout7.7milliontonsbythetimethetotalinstalledcapacityofrenewableThe100GWtargettodrivescaleddevelopmentandcostreductionberealized.Expansionoftheindustrialscale,especiallytherapidincreaseofinstalledcapacity,isthemostcompetitivewiththecostofhydrogenproductionfromfossilenergy.rmi.org/acceleratetheprocessofrenewablehydrogentoreachcostparitywithandeventuallyreplacefossilenergycostparityinmostapplicationscenarios.Thisisanimportantfoundationforthelarge-scaleapplicationofrenewablehydrogenontheconsumerside,aswellasacornerstoneforacceleratingtheformationofacleanandstablehydrogensupplyandachievingthepromotionandapplicationofrenewablehydrogenTheinstalledcapacitytargetofrenewablehydrogenmayhelpaddresstheeconomicgapbetweenthepotentiallyhugemarketdemandandthecurrenthighcostofrenewablehydrogenproducts,providingSource:AnalysisbyRMIandChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteRelationshipbetweentherenewablehydrogencapacityandhydrogenproductioncost40200202020252030203520402045205020552060HHfromonshorewindHfromsolarPVHcosts>traditionalhydrogencosts<traditionalinmultiplesectorsrmi.org/beforetheexpectedcommissioningoftechnologyprojects,andthescaleshouldgraduallyexpandfromisexpectedtobeprolongedowingtothecomplextechnologiesandprocessesrequiredinthelarge-scaleapplicationofgreenhydrogeninvariousindustries.Tovalidatekeyprojectsandachievestablelarge-scalefocusedcoordinateddevelopment,large-scaledevelopmentwithmegabases,andgradualreplacingbyproductionandhydrogendemandofmainhydrogen-consumingindustries.Thereportalsolaysoutthecharacteristicsofrenewablehydrogeninstalledcapacityineachregionbyandtechnology—inaccordancewiththestrategicdirectionofthehydrogendevelopmentplan.Thereportsupplementsandsupportsaspectsnotcoveredbytheplan,suchasregionallarge-scaledevelopment.Atthesametime,thereportsuggestshowtofurtherimplementthethreekeytasksoftechnologicalinnovation,infrastructurelayout,anddiversedemonstrationapplicationsproposedintheplan.rmi.org/RenewableHydrogen100by2030DevelopmentModelOutlookDemandwilldrivedevelopmentofthehydrogenindustry,andthesupplyanddemandnetworkwillbedrivenbyindustrialbuild-out,technologicalandeconomicprogress,securityconstraints,andresourceplanningandoptimization.willbethethreeimportantmodelsofrenewablehydrogendevelopmentinthenextdecade.Theywillhelpachievecross-regionalandcross-categoryoverallplanningandcoordinateddevelopmentofthehydrogenindustryandExhibit7.ExamplesofexistingandpotentialgreenhydrogenmegabasesNorthernrailandpipelinesupplychainYangtzeRiverTransportsupplychainCoastaltransportandmaritimetradesupplychainSource:ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteanalysisEastChinabaseXinjiangbase:windandsolarbasedhydrogenproductionSichuanbase:hydroelectricityhydrogenproductionInnerMongoliabase:windandsolarbasedhydrogenNorthChinabase:windpowerhydrogenNortheastbase:windpower,biomasshydrogenproductionSouthChinabaseNingdongbasetoresolveintheshortterm,andthedistributionofhydrogenproductionresourcesandthelevelsofandHenanhaveindependentlyexploredregionaldevelopmentmodelsofhydrogenproductionandusebysuccessivelyreleasingprojectlistsofintegrateddemonstrationsofhydrogenproductionbywindandregionalhubsandsupplementedbyshort-distance,point-to-pointmodels.1234567812345678rmi.org/•scaledcoordinationConsideringthestronguncertaintyofearlydemandofhydrogen,theavailabilityoflong-distanceandlarge-capacityhydrogenpipelinesisunlikely,andthestorageandtransportationcostsofothertechnicalgiventherelatedstorageandtransportationcosts,hydrogenreplacementisviableonlywhenthepower4,000RMBperkW,thusresourceavailabilityandtechnicallevelrequirementsarealmostburdensome.Source:ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteanalysisAcceptablehydrogencostlevelsbyenduse0020,000Electricityprice(RMB/kWh)Nm:nomialcubicmeter4,0002,0000.20.40.60.8CarusewithsubsidyCarusewithsubsidyCarusewithoutsubsidyCarusewithoutsubsidySteelmakingSyntheticmethanolSeasonpeakshavingCogenerationSyntheticammonia40RMB/kg20RMB/kgNaturalgasblendingNaturalgasblendingNaturalgasblendingammonia/cogeneration/steelmaking/syntheticmethanolSeasonalpeakshaving/naturalgasblendingrmi.org/Source:ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteanalysisCostandscaleofrenewablehydrogenproductionbyregionCostoflocalrenewablehydrogen/costoffossilhydrogenproduction4.0010.0100.01000.010000.02.00XinjiangHeilongjiangYunnanNingxiaSichuanHebeiJilinLiaoningTianjinShanghaiHainanBeijingZhejiangHunanJiangxiHubeiHenanJiangsuShaanxiAnhuiChongqingShanxiShandongInnerMongoliaTibetQinghai•regionaldevelopmentNortheastChina,NorthChina,NorthwestChina,andSouthwestChinaarerichinrenewableresources,makingmultipleapplicationseconomical.Incontrast,EastChinaandCentralChinaregionsarerelativelyshortofrenewableresources,andthehighdemandforpowerleadstoapremiumongreenelectricity,whilermi.org/Source:ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteanalysisIntegrateddevelopmentofhydrogenproductionfromelectrolyzerwithenergybaseloadsWesternregionRemotebalanceofsupplyanddemandEasternregionContinuouspoweroptimizationNewenergystorageisdevelopingrapidlyHydropowerNuclearpowerThermalpowerConstructionofinterconnectedpipenetworkswasstrengthenedExploringdemandresponseresourcesdevelopmentofnewenergysourcesproductionproductionHHWindpowerSolarPVIndustrialload•Thecoordinateddevelopmentofmodernenergysystemsandin-depthdevelopmentofrenewableenergybasesmayfurtherstrengthentheregionaldemandforcombineddevelopmentofhydrogenandpower.asanoptionforpowersupplyanddemandbalanceinalargerrangeandlongertimescale,withhigherpenetrationofvariablerenewableenergy.Astechnologymaturesandeconomicsimproveoverthelongadjustrenewables,leveragingitscomplementarycharacteristicswithalargerrangeofotherpowersourcesrmi.org/Source:ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteanalysisInthelongrun,technologicalbreakthroughsandcostreductionsinproductionandapplicationsarekeystoofrelatedindustriesinChina,large-scaledevelopmentandapplicationofrenewablehydrogenintheformofmegabasesnotonlymakesfulluseoflocalresourcesandenhancestheguaranteeforrenewablehydrogendevelopment,butalsoempowershydrogendevelopmentinallsegmentsofthevaluechain.TheissuedbytheNDRCandNEA,andthe“NoticeontheEstablishmentofIntegratedPlanofRenewableEnergyalong4issuedbytheNEA,canprovidesupportforthedevelopmentofmegabasesofwind,solar,hydro,thermal,andstorage,aswellasasolutionforthelarge-scaledevelopmentofhydrogen.•hydrogenproductioncapacityinChinaandhavethepotentialandspacetoachievelarge-scalehydrogensourcesubstitution.Thenewenergysystemwillnotonlyreshapetheenergysystem,butalsoreconstructtheindustrialsystem.Withabundantrenewableresources,theseregionswillbecomethesitesofsuchzero-carbonindustriesasgreenchemicalsandhydrogenmetallurgy.Anewindustrialmodelsupportedbyagreen,stable,andreliableenergysystemcanbebuiltbyfullycoordinatingrenewableenergy,energystorage,andhydrogenanddynamicallycombiningtheproductionanduseofgreenenergyinzero-carbonrmi.org/Source:ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteanalysisExploresafehydrogendevelopmentthroughmegabasesMegabaseTechnicalperformanceSafetypromotionRulesandregulationsSafetymanagement•MegabasemodelmaximizestheguaranteeforsafehydrogendevelopmentThemegabasemodelmayincreasetheoverallawarenessofprojectrisksamongprojectdevelopers;designinstitutions;engineering,procurement,andconstructionintegrators;andkeyproductcomponentrmi.org/Source:AnalysisbyChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteandRMIGlobal“hydrogenhubs”toexploreintegratedandecologicaldevelopmentmodel•Megabasesprovidesupportforindustrialdevelopmentfrommultiplevaluechainscomprehensivetocovermultiplevaluechains.Themegabasemodeloflocalconsumptionofrenewablerangeofpartnershipsandcooperation,smoothingchannelsforsupplyanduseofhydrogenandmakingprojectdevelopmentmorelikely.TheInternationalEnergyAgencyalsoproposedmultiplevaluechainsfordevelopmentofthehydrogenindustrybecausedevelopmentofonevaluechainwillreducecostsandencourageinnovationinothers.ValuechainswithinthesameregioncanplaysynergisticroleswithoneUSA·ACES,Utah·PortofLosAngeles,ShorePowerProject,CaliforniaChile·HydrogenInfrastructureProjectUK·HyNetNorthWestEngland·BIGHITOrkneyIslandsNetherlands·HEAVENN·HydrogenDelta·H2PropositionZuid–Holland/Rotterdam·PortofAmsterdamregionGermany·H2Rivers/H2Rhein–Neckar·HyBayern·NorddeutschesReallabor·eFarm·HywaysforFutureSpain·GreenHyslandMallorca·BasqueHydrogenCorridorFrance·Auvergne–Rhône–AlpesHydrogenValley·NormandyHydrogenPlan·HydrogenTerritoryBurgundyFrancheComté·CEOG,FrenchGuianaJapan·FH2RFukushimaChina·FiveDemonstrativeCityClusters·NingdongHydrogenPilotZone·OrdosGreenHydrogenCityItaly·SouthTyrolHydrogenValleyAustria·WIVAP&GOman·OmanGreenHydrogenandChemicalSectorAustralia·NeoenCrystalBrook·EnergyPark·EyrePeninsulaGatewayThailand·PhiSueaHouseEurope(IPCEI)·BlueDanube·BlackHorse·GreenOctopus·GreenCrane·SinesIndustrialHubDenmark·HyBalancermi.org/VolatileHydrogenstorageEnergystorageIncreasestabilityReducecostSource:ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteanalysis“EstablishingFirstandTransformingLater”toAccelerateDecarbonizationofHydrogenSourceMixWiththereleaseofthedualcarbongoals,thedevelopmentofthecleanhydrogensupplychainhasbeenformallyestablished,buttheoptimizationofthehydrogensourcestructurestillneedstofollowmarketrulesstageandwillgraduallybereplacedbyrenewablehydrogeninthelaterstage.Someregionsrichinindustrialbyproducthydrogenresourceswillprovidesupportduringthetransitionbecausetheyhavetheadvantagesoflowcost,convenienttransportation,andstability.Withadvancesintechnologyandadecreaseinthecostofcleanpower,renewablehydrogenwillbecomethemajornewlyinstalledsourceofhydrogenproduction•Renewablehydrogenalonecannotmeetthedemandintheinitialstagecomplementarywindandsolarmodelisconsidered,hydrogenproductionfromgridpowerisstillrequiredtoprovidegreaterstabilityandtoensureacontinuoussupplyofhydrogenfromwaterelectrolysis.Otherwise,large-scalepowerstorageorhydrogenstoragewillberequired,butthiswouldleadtoarmi.org/•IndustrialbyproducthydrogenmayplayatransitionalandsupportiveroleInadiversesupplysituation,technologyrouteselectiondependsontheapplicability,economic,energyofindustrialbyproducthydrogen,anditiswidelydistributed.Highpuritybyproducthydrogenisproducedinindustriessuchaschlor-alkali,ethanecracking,andpropanedehydrogenation,whichhavethepotentialindustry,especiallyinEastChinawithitsadvancedchemicalsindustry.Inthechlor-alkaliindustryalone,about•Thefallingcostoftechnologyisdrivingrenewablehydrogenintothemainstreaminmultipleapplications.Withthedecreaseofpowergenerationcostsandtheiterationoftechnology,ivhydrogenfromrenewableswillgraduallyexpanditsmarketapplicationscopeandbecometheivrmi.org/RenewableHydrogen100RegionalDevelopmentPathsrenewablehydrogenresources,thenextstepwastoanalyzetheconsumptiondemandandproductionkeydevelopmentareasthatwillhelpinthewritingofsupportivepoliciesandthedeploymentofindustries.vrenewablehydrogenwillreach7.7milliontonsperyear.Thechemicalssectorwillhavethelargestdemandforrenewablehydrogen,followedbytransportationandsteel.Intheearlystageofrenewablehydrogendevelopment,theeconomicadvantagesofcombinedregionalproductionandconsumptionofrenewablehydrogenwillbeobvious,asindustryusersarehighlysensitivetocostandconvenienceofuse,andthecostbottleneckofstorageandtransportationcannotbesolvedintheshortterm.ThelocaldemandinNorthwestChinaandNorthChinawillbestrong,andtheywillleadintermsofregionalinstalledscale,followedbyEastChinaandSouthChina.vTheregionsincludethefollowingareas:·NorthChina:Beijing,Tianjin,HebeiProvince,ShanxiProvince·Province,Taiwan·CentralChina:HenanProvince,HubeiProvince,HunanProvince·AdministrativeRegion,MacauSpecialAdministrativeRegion,SouthChinaSeaIslands·NortheastChina:HeilongjiangProvince,JilinProvince,LiaoningProvince··Note:rmi.org/chemicals,steel,andtransportationsectors.viHydrogenapplicationsinthechemicalssectorwillstillmainlysteelsector,hydrogenapplicationswillmainlybeconcentratedintheextensivedeploymentofhydrogensteelmakingprojectsbyleadingsteelmakers.Inthetransportationsector,hydrogenwillbeappliedtoacertainproportionofheavyfreight,lightandmediumlogisticsvehicles,buses,miningmachinery,port•ChemicalsInthechemicalssector,thisstudyfocusesonthreeupstreamchemicalssubindustriesthataremostcloselychemicalssectorisstillanenergy-intensiveandhigh-emissionssector,withfossilfuelsasthemainenergysourceandrawmaterial.Asthemainproductionsegmentofthepetrochemicalsindustry,petroleumtraditionalway.Withtheintroductionandimplementationofenvironmentalprotectionpoliciesandaccessrestrictions,severalprovinceswithadvancedenergyandchemicalssectors,includingShandong,InnerMongolia,andShaanxi,havegraduallytightenedtheapprovalandmanagementofnewenergy-intensivechemicalsprojects,drivenbygovernmenttargetsforenergyconsumptionandenergyintensity.technology,strengtheningrelevantcutting-edgetechnologies,andacceleratingtheeliminationofoutdatedequipmentandtechnologythatarenotinlinewiththegreenandlow-carbontransition.viPowergenerationandenergystoragewillbeimportantapplicationsofhydrogeninthefuture,butcomparedwithothersectorsthatarealreadyusinghydrogen,theapplicationofhydrogenintheenergysector,especiallyinthepowersector,hasnotbeencarriedoutonalargescale.Asasubstitutefororsupplementtoexistingenergysources,hydrogenwillfacegreattechnicalandeconomicchallengesinthesesectorsandwillstillbeinthedemonstrationandexplorationperiodoverthenextdecade,withlarge-scalecommercialapplicationsunlikely.Asaresult,hydrogenuseintheenergyandpowersectorswillnothaveaTheapplicationofhydrogenasenergystoragefacesthechallengeoflackofreliablehydrogenstorageandtransportationsolutions,andtheapplicationfeasibilityofhydrogenenergystorageisfarfromthatofothermaturestorageoptions(traditionalandlimitedbythematurityofequipment,sopowergenerationfromhydrogeniscostlyandhasalowapplicationpotentialinChina.Hydrogenfuelcellpowergenerationisonlysuitableforverysmall-scaledistributedemergencypowerneedsorasapowersupplyinremoteareas,withapplicationcasesandscalerelativelylimited.rmi.org/chemicalproductAnalysisonprovinciallevel·Outputin2020·Changesofoutputinthefutureforeachproduct·Huseineachproduct·HusepotentialineachproductionrouteFutureproductionTotalHdemandVariables·RenewableHtoreplacetraditionalH·NewprojectstouserenewableH·Electrolyzer-usehoursTotalHconsumptionbychemicalsandelectrolyzerinstalledcapacityineachregionSource:RMIanalysisHydrogenuseinthechemicalssectorin2030In2020,hydrogenusedinthechemicalssectorcamefromfossilfuelsAmmoniaMethanolHIntraditionalcemicalssector:mainlyfossil-basedH,supplementedbyrenewableHInnewchemicalssector:rewableHusedaslow-carbonchemicalsfeedstockHydrogendemandinthechemicalssectorin2030ammonia,methanolsisylanaIMR:ecruoSInthefuture,applicationsofrenewablehydrogeninthechemicalssectorwillmainlymeanreplacingnonrenewablehydrogeninexistingtraditionalprocessesandtheuseofrenewablehydrogeninmodernchemicalsproduction.Duetothetechnologycomplexityofchemicalprojects,theneedforlargeinvestments,andthelongdevelopmentcycleofmodernchemicalsprojects,applyingrenewablehydrogenasarawmaterialonalargescalerequirestheupgradeofmultipleproductionlines,resultinginhighcostsandriskintheshortterm.Inthenextdecade,applicationsofrenewablehydrogenmainlywillmeanreplacingtraditionalfossil-basedhydrogenproductionintraditionaltechnologicalprocessesandpilotingasmallnumberofnewrenewablehydrogenchemicalsprojectsthathaverelativelymatureconditions(moreonacomprehensiveassessmentofthedemandforhydrogenandthefeasibilityofrenewablehydrogenproducts,andthedemandforhydrogenisrelatedtotheproductstructureandtotaloutput,whilethedemandforhydrogenperunitofammoniaandmethanolisrelativelyclear.Atthesametime,consideringthetechnicaleconomiesofscaleofeachsubindustryandtheregionalavailabilityofrenewablehydrogen,thereplacementBasedonananalysisofproductoutputandthedevelopmentmodels,weanalyzedthedemandforhydrogenrmi.org/Demandforrenewablehydrogeninthechemicalssectorbyregionin2030(10,000tons/year)SouthCentralSouthwestNortheastNorthEastNorthwestAmmoniaMethanol4704513590180sisylanaIMR:ecruoSInparticular,NorthwestChinawillbecomethelargestconsumerofrenewablehydrogeninthechemicalssectorbecauseofitsadvantagesinrenewablepowerresources,followedbyEastChina,NortheastChina,andSouthwestChina.Basedonanassessmentofsuchfactorsasproductionprocess,feedstock,technology,andeconomics,renewablehydrogeninthechemicalssectorwillcomefrommethanolproduction,followedbysyntheticrmi.org/Source:RMIanalysisRenewablehydrogendemandinthechemicalssectorin2030TotalAmmoniaMethanolAmmoniaMethanolRenewablehydrogenapplicationRenewablehydrogenconsumption(milliontons/year)2020–2030variationReplacinggrayH,newlyaddedgreenHStableStableincreasereplacinggrayhydrogenProductioncapacityalternativesRenewablehydrogeninchemicalsAmmoniaMethanol3%5%6%basedH2RenewableH2viiandtherawmaterialstructureishighlydependentoncoal,makingtheindustryvulnerabletotheimpactoflow-costmethanolabroad.expectedtodrivethegrowthofmethanoldownstreamconsumption.Theintegrationandupgradingofnewcoal-to-methanolprojects,theproductionofgreenmethanolfromrenewablehydrogenwillincreasemethanoloutputinthefuture,withrelatedprojectsbeinggraduallyestablishedintheNorthwestChinabethelargestproductionbaseofmethanolinChina.Productioncapacityforammoniasynthesiswillbemoreconcentrated,equipmentwillbereplacedandupgraded,anddemandforrenewablehydrogenwillbefurthertransferredtoareasrichinrenewablecapacityismainlyconcentratedinShandong,Henan,Shanxi,Hubei,andJiangsu.Theoverallslowgrowthofdemandfordownstreamproductssuchasureaisleadingtothesaturationofsupplyanddemandinprovincesinrecentyears.viiimportedfromtheNorthwest.rmi.org/Inthefuture,ammoniaproducersinSouthwestChinaandNorthwestChinaareexpectedtotaketheleadinrespondingtopolicyguidancetocarryouttechnologicaltransformationandmergerandreorganization,reducingenergyconsumptionandspeedingupindustrialoptimizationandadjustmentthroughrenewablehydrogenreplacement.Atthesametime,ammoniahasthepotentialtoexpandasasaferandmoretransportablehydrogencarrier.NortheastChina,whichhasthecapacitytoexportammonia,willpromotetheexpansionofammoniaproductionandmakeitanimportantmeansoflarge-scaleconsumptionofrenewableresources.policies,7newenergyreplacementwillaccelerateinthetransportationsector,buttotaldemandforHowever,withtheoverallupgradingmajorprojects,andthefallingcostofrenewablehydrogen.•SteelRapiddecarbonizationofthesteelsectorCokecurrentlyisusedasthemainreducingagentinprocess,butitalsocreatescarbonemissions.Electrifyingthecurrentprocesstoavoidtheseemissionsandpromisingwaytocompletelydecarbonizethesteelsector.rmi.org/Emissionsreductionpotentialwillbemaximizedwithzero-carbonpower,whichmeansDRIcombineswithanelectricarcfurnace,andsmeltingreductioncombineswithaconverter.Source:RMIanalysisHblastfurnace(BF)TechnologyIllustrationStatementEmissionsreductionpotentialTechnologyreadinesslevels(year)projectAdvantagesLimitationsHdirectreducediron(DRI)HsmeltingreductionInjectreducinggaswithhighHcontentIncreaseshareofHfurnaceDRIInjectH-containinggastosmeltingreductionprocess-richironmakingwithcoalreplacedbyHHBISH-richgasDRI;JianlongSaisipuHydrogen-BasedSmeltingReductionProjectLowtransformationcost,moreeconomical,increasesproductionHighemissionsreductionpotential,moreinternationalexperienceHighemissionsreductionpotentialLimitedemissionsreductionpotential;technicallyhardtoachievefull-hydrogensteelmakingrenovation,lackoffundamentaltechnology-tion,lackoffunda-mentaltechnology,fewerinternationalexperiencesExhibit20.Source:RMIanalysisbasedonpublicinformationSteelmakerLocationTechnologyCapacity(10kt)HsourceH-rich,gas-basedByproductH,cleanH——SteelHBISJISCOJianlongGroupRizhaoSteelJinnanSteelWuhai,InnerMongoliaRizhao,ShandongLinfen,ShanxiHydrogenDRIHydrogeninjectionHsmeltingreductionByproductHByproductHByproductHHydrogenDRIZhangjiakou,Tangshan,Handan,HebeiH-rich,gas-basedByproductH,RHrmi.org/consumptionsandelectrolyzercapacityineachregionVariableAnalysisofhydrogendemandinthesteelsectorin2030·Currentcapacity·HbasedsteelmakingpilotprojectplanHbasedsteelmakingdevelopmentScaleofHbasedsteelmakingLocationofHbasedsteelmakingplants·Currentcapacity·Technologyfoundation·Low-carbonactionplan·Currentcapacitydistribution·Regionalfeatures·Renewablesavailability·Hoursinuse·ByproductHsupply·ShareofHuseSource:RMIanalysisTheuseofrenewablehydrogeninthesteelsectorisfocusedontheproductionprocessofnewcapacity,withindustryleadersshowingtheway.Themainapplicationsforhydrogenmetallurgycanbedividedtechnicalbasis,actionplan,andlocalattributesofeachcompany,viiishowsthathydrogenmetallurgycapacityismainlycomingfromleadingindustryplayers,andseverallarge-scalehydrogenmetallurgybaseswillbeformed.Hydrogenmetallurgytechnologypilotprojectsofvariouslargedomesticsteelmakersarelocationofhydrogenmetallurgyprojects,andtherenewablehydrogenconsumptionanddemandofixviiiInMarch2022,theguidelineonthedevelopmentofthesteelindustryjointlyissuedbytwoministriesandonecommissionsupportedthedevelopmentofhydrogenmetallurgyactionplansbylocalgovernmentsandcompanies.ThecarbonneutralizationroadmapsannouncedbylargesteelcompaniessuchasBaowuandHBISconsiderhydrogensteelmakinganimportanttechnologicalapproachtolow-carbonmetallurgy.ixInMarch2022,theguidelineonthedevelopmentofthesteelindustryjointlyissuedbytwoministriesandonecommissionsupportedthedevelopmentofhydrogenmetallurgyactionplansbylocalgovernmentsandcompanies.ThecarbonneutralizationroadmapsannouncedbylargesteelcompaniessuchasBaowuandHBISconsiderhydrogensteelmakinganimportanttechnologicalapproachtolow-carbonmetallurgy.rmi.org/restofthedemandmetbyindustrialbyproducthydrogen.Thelocationofhydrogen-basedironmakingtransportationconditions,marketdemand,andlaborandindustrialbases,withproductioncapacitymainlyconcentratedinNorthChinaandEastChina,suchasinHebei,Jiangsu,Liaoning,Shandong,andShanxi.Inthefuture,steelmakerswilltendtodeployhydrogen-basedironmakingprojectsinregionsrichinrenewablehydrogenresourcestoreducethecostofhydrogenstorageandtransportation.NorthwestChinawillbecomethemostimportantbaseforthedevelopmentofhydrogen-basedironmaking,anditshydrogenalsohavethecomparativeadvantageofdevelopinghydrogenmetallurgy.AsshownintheExhibits22andwillbetransferredtotheNorthwesttosomeextent.Exhibit22.SteelmakingcapacityinChinain2020Northwest6,7766,1845,8919,27929,50232,3919,164SouthwestSouthEastNorthSource:RMIanalysisSteelmakingcapacityin2020NortheastCentralrmi.org/Source:RMIanalysisHydrogenconsumptioninsteelmakinginChinain2030(10,000tonH/year)Northwest8012228163SouthwestSouthEastNortheastHydrogendemandbysteelmaking•Transportationacceleratedpenetrationinsomeapplications,andthescaleofhydrogenusedinthetransportationsectoramongthemostimportantwaysforroadtransportationinChinatoachievecarbonneutralityinthefuture.Continuoustechnologyadvancements,increaseinenergydensity,andcostreductionhavemadepowerbatteriessuitableandcompetitiveinpassengervehiclesandsomecommercialvehicles.vehiclesarebeingpromotedwhererequirementsforrangeandstabilityarehigh,suchasheavy-dutytrucks,coldchainlogistics,intercitybuses,urbanbuses,andportandminingvehicles.InsomepartsofxincludingtheShanghai,xapprovedinthesecondtier,includingtheHebeiandHenanclusters.Alltheseclusterswillhavemorehydrogenvehiclespilotoperationsandsupportingpolicies.33CentralNorthrmi.org/Exhibit24.Source:RMIanalysisHydrogenuseinthetransportationsectorin2030TransportationapplicationsPassengervehicle,bus,urbanlogistics,cleaningvehicles,heavytruck,miningandportmachinery·Salesin2020·PotentialofHuseineachapplication·LocalsupportforHdevelopmentAnnualsalesofthatmodelinthefutureAnnualHpenetrationrateforthatmodel·Distancetraveled,Hconsumptionperkm·ByproductHsupply·Vehicleretirementrate·Electrolyzer-usehoursconsumption,andelectrolyzercapacityineachregionAnalysisonprovinciallevelvehicleownershipsineachprovince.Byselectingseventransportationapplications,includingpassengertrucks,miningmachineries,andportmachineries,takingprovincesasunitsandbasedonmarketspaceandtechnicalandeconomicanalysisofeachapplication,theregionalsalesofeachvehiclemodelandhydrogenconsumptionperunitmileage,industrialbyproducthydrogensupply,autoscrappage,andelectrolyzerutilizationhours,thisstudyforecasttheregionalhydrogendemandinthetransportationsectorberapidinEastChina,NorthChina,andSouthChinaintheearlystage,whichisstronglycorrelatedwithhydrogenindustry.Inthelaterstage,theaccelerateddevelopmentinNorthwestChinaandNortheastChinarmi.org/OutlookonRegionalDevelopmentofRenewableHydrogenCapacityConsideringsuchfactorsasspeedofthetransitionoftraditionalindustries,availabilityofnatural•Regionswherethedemandfortransitioningandupgradingtraditionalindustriesmatchesthenaturalavailabilityofrenewableresourceswillbecomeimportantdevelopmentbasesforrenewablehydrogen,withrelativelylargeinstalledcapacityandlow-costrenewablehydrogen,includingNorthwestChina,concentratedloads,localhydrogenproductioncouldbecarriedoutbyusingabundantandcost-competitivewindandsolarresources,supplementedbybyproducthydrogen,tomeettheneedsof•Inregionsliketheeasterncoastalareas,withadvancedindustrialbases,densepopulations,andlimitedrenewableresources,thecostoflarge-scaleproductionofrenewablehydrogenishigh,andSource:AnalysisbyRMIandChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteDistributionofhydrogenconsumptioninthetransportationsectorin2030Northwest:Central:South:470,000tonsEast:North:Northeast:270,000tonsSouthwest:BusLogisticsvehiclesSanitationvehiclesHDtrucksMiningmachineryPortmachineryPassengervehiclesrmi.org/thedevelopmentofthehydrogenindustrywillbesupportedbyindustrialbyproducthydrogenplusdistributedhydrogenproductionplusshort-distancetransportation.Intheinitialstage,basedontheatransitionalroute,andtheproductionofrenewablehydrogenbysmall-scaleanddistributedstations,suchasintegratedhydrogenproductionandrefuelingstations,willbeanimportantsupplement.•Inregionswithlocaladvantagesinbutunevendistributionofrenewableresources,theacceleratedpenetrationofrenewablehydrogencouldbeachievedbycentralizedhydrogenproductionplusmedium-distancetransportation.InnorthernNorthChina,forexample,Sinopecisplanningtobuildproduction.Italsocanmeettheeconomicrequirementsofapplicationsinthetransportationsectorthroughmid-distancetransportation.ThedetailedregionaldistributionofindustriesandthecorrespondingrenewablehydrogencapacityareSource:AnalysisbyRMIandChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteDistributionoftraditionalindustriesin2020andrenewablehydrogencapacityin2030Northwest24GWSouthwest7.5GWCentral8.4GWSouth13.9GWNorth20.2GWNortheast9.7GWEast18.4GWNorthwestSouthwestCentralSouthNorthEastNortheastrmi.org/•NorthwestChina:Integrateddevelopmentdrivenbyresourceadvantagesrichfossilfuel,metalmineral,land,andsolarandwindresourcescoupledwithmoderatepowerdemandcannotonlymeettheneedsofheavyindustriesforlow-cost,zero-carbontransition,butalsotoacertainextentoptimizethestructureofproductionandapplicationofrenewablepower.Drivenbythetransitionofheavyindustriesandthefulldevelopmentofrenewablepower,NorthwestChinaisexpectedtobecomethelargestrenewablehydrogenproductionandapplicationbaseinChina.Therefore,thisstudypredictsthatmilliontonsperyear.Tomeetthistarget,NorthwestChinaneedstofullymakeuseofindustrialbyproducthydrogenandacceleratethedeploymentofrenewablehydrogenbasedontheexistingindustrialstructure,transformingintoamodern,comprehensivelow-carbonindustrialzone.Bothnationalandlocalgovernmentsshouldincreaseincentivesforlow-carbontransitionofheavyindustriesandapplicationofrenewablehydrogeninthisregionandpromotethecomprehensivedevelopmentofrenewables-basedhydrogenproductionby•NortheastChinaandSouthwestChina:Coordinateddevelopmentofchemicalstransitionandrenewableenergyrisingrawmaterialprices,andacceleratedlow-carbontransition,theseregionsshouldreplacetraditionalrawmaterialswithcleanerversionsandoriginalbyproducthydrogenwithrenewablehydrogentoproductioncapacitywithhydrogenproductionfromrenewablepower.Basedontheend-usedemandofExhibit27.Source:AnalysisbyRMIandChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstitute0EastNewHdemandChemicalSteelTransportationByproducthydrogenNorthSouthwestSouthNorthwestNortheastCentral200400Renewablehydrogenconsumptionbyregionin2030(10,000tons/year)724rmi.org/Toachievethisgoal,nationalandlocalgovernmentsupportforrenewablehydrogenproductionisneeded.Incentivesfortheproductionandapplicationofrenewablehydrogenarealsoneededtofurthernarrowthecostgapbetweenrenewablehydrogenandhydrogenfromnaturalgasorbyproducthydrogenfromthechemicalssectorandtofullyrealizethegradualreplacementofbyproducthydrogenwithrenewablehydrogen.•NorthChinaandSouthChina:SimultaneousdevelopmentinthesteelandtransportationsectorsThedevelopmentofthehydrogenindustryinNorthChinaandSouthChinaisexpectedtohavetwogreenhydrogenproductionbaseswillbebuiltinNorthChinaandSouthChina,whichhaveadvantageouslocalpowerresources.Thesebaseswillservehydrogensteelmakingandmetallurgybases,ledbylargeToachievethisgoal,itisnecessarytobuildahydrogensupplychainnetworkcoveringkeyregionsandcenteredonregionswithlocalresourceadvantages,strengthensupportforthedevelopmentofthewholeregionalhydrogenindustrychain,andquicklyformasupplyanddemandnetworkforlarge-scaleuseofrenewablehydrogen.•EastChinaandCentralChina:FocusonbreakthroughsinthetransportationsectorThedevelopmentofthehydrogenindustryinEastChinaandCentralChinaismainlyconcentratedintheYangtzeRiverDeltacityclustersandtheShandong,Henan,andWuhanregions.BasedintheShanghaitransportation,formingalarge-scaleapplicationbaseofrenewablehydrogen.Shandongprovincecancarryoutcomprehensivedemonstrationsinthetransportationandchemicalssectorsincombinationwiththescaleuseofindustrialbyproducthydrogenandcarryoutdemonstrationprojectswithrenewablehydrogen.transportationhub,willcontinuetogrow.Zhengzhouwasselectedinthesecondbatchofdemonstrationcityclusters,whileWuhanhasamatureautomobileindustrybaseandisplanningtodevelopahydrogenrmi.org/hydrogenishigh,andnolarge-scalecommercialprojectshavebeenimplemented.Inaddition,thetotalindustryparticipantstoformastableexpectationoffuturemarketdemandandtrends.Achievingthisrequiresanalyzingandselectingthepathtoachievecarbonpeakgoalinallindustriesandtakingadvantageofkeydecisionpointstosupporttheexpansionofelectrolyzermanufacturingcapacity,steadilyincreasingAtthesametime,leadingplayersshouldfurtherreducethecostofrenewablehydrogenproductionthroughtechnologicalprogressandeconomiesofscaleandseizeearlyopportunitiesinthepotentialrenewablehydrogenconsumptionmarket.Astheeconomicsofthewholerenewablehydrogenindustrychainimproves,theinvestmentreturnofthelow-carbontransitionusingrenewablehydrogenwillbehigherthanotherpaths,andrenewablehydrogeninstallationswillacceleraterapidlywiththestrongdemandforapplications.Source:RMIanalysisSummaryofregionaldevelopmentofrenewablehydrogencapacityDemandbysectorEastChinaNorthChinaSouthChinaSouthwestChinaNorthwestChinaNortheastChinaCentralChinaRenewablehydrogensupplyH,small-scalewindandsolartoHWindtoHtionsforregionalstorageandtransportationTanktrucksandregionalpipelinesTanktrucksandregionalpipelinesMajorchallengesRichindustrialbyproductH,withlowdemandfornewcapacityintheregionRenewablehydrogeninstalledcapacityin2030(GW)Renewablehydrogenproductionin2030(10,000tons)TransportationandchemicalsTransportationandsteel20.2Transportation-shorewindtoHTanktrucksHighgreenpowercostChemicalsSteelandchemicalsChemicalsTransportationHydrotoHLarge-scalewindandsolartoHWindandsolartoHmegabaseHydrotoHTanktrucksandregionalpipelinesRegionalpipelinesandpilotliquidHRegionalpipelinesTanktrucksDecentralizednewprojectsHugeinvestmentrequiredLongdistancebetweensupplyanddemandLimitedgreenpowerresources2447rmi.org/SuggestionsfortheNextStageofDevelopmentreducecostwhileimprovingtheindustrysystem,unleashthedevelopmentpotentialofhydrogenandrenewablehydrogen,leadthelong-termdevelopmentofthehydrogenindustry,andachievethedualcarbongoals.FurtherDeveloptheNationalTargetofRenewableHydrogenCapacityasregionsandsectorswillbefurtherstudiedanddetermined.Basedonthegoalsandgeneraldevelopmentstrategyintheplan,werecommendmoreresearchonthelong-termdevelopmentroadmapofthehydrogenandrenewablehydrogenindustryundertheguidanceofthegoalofcarbonneutralitybykeymilestonesintherenewablehydrogentransitionandthedemandforproductionandinstalledcapacity.takingintoaccountregionallevelsofresourcesandhowdevelopedtechnologiesareininmajorhydrogen-usingindustries.Companiesinallregionsandindustriesshouldbeencouragedtosettheirowntargetsforrenewablehydrogenconsumption.CarryoutHydrogenMegaBaseScaledDemonstrationstoDriveaRapidDeclineinCostsintheHydrogenValueChainStrengthenmultilevelcooperationtoestablishhydrogenvalleydemonstrationprojectsandjointlydeveloparenewablehydrogeneconomy.Inadditiontoincreasingpolicysupportfromthevalleydemonstrationprojects.Asthemainshareholderinthelarge-scaledevelopmentofthehydrogenrmi.org/industry,centralSOEsshouldleveragetheiradvantagesincapitalresources,infrastructureconstructioncapacity,andcoordinationcapacitytobreakthroughtechnologicalbarriersbycombiningtheintroductionpromoterationaluseofsuperiorresourcesinvarioussegmentsofproduction,storage,transportation,andrefueling;andspeedupthedevelopmentandcommercializationofhydrogen-basedproducts,creatingandleveragingtheirresourcesandmarkets,tobreakthroughcoretechnologiesandpromoteindustrialdevelopment.Cooperationamongcentralandlocalgovernments,centralSOEs,andcentralandprivatecompaniescanhelppromotethehydrogenindustrytoachievetechnologicalupgrading,scaleexpansion,marketexpansion,andcostreductionassoonaspossible.Governmentalauthoritiesshouldresearch,develop,andapplyhydrogentechnologiesandTheadvantagesofthenewnationwidesystemshouldbeusedtocontinuouslyimplementsupportivepolicyandacceleratetheestablishmentofastandardsystemforinnovativetechnologydevelopment,helpingforinspectingandtestinghydrogensystemequipment;improvingandenhancingservicelevelsforthecommercializationofthehydrogenindustry.areferencemodel.researchandanalysisshouldidentifykeyfactorsinthesuccessoftheprojects,mainchallenges,andthecreatingreplicabledevelopmentmodelsofrenewablehydrogenprojectsthatcanbereferenced.Undertheguidanceofthenationalhydrogenplan,localsupportpoliciesforthehydrogenandrenewablehydrogenindustryshouldbeformulated,takingintoconsiderationlocalconditions.Localgovernmentdepartmentsshouldcreateasystematictop-levelplanforhydrogenandrenewablehydrogendevelopment,identifythedevelopmentdirectionandrouteofhydrogenandrenewablehydrogenintheandrenewablehydrogen.Mechanismsforhydrogenfacilitiestoparticipateinthepowerandcarbonmarketsmechanism,andencouragehydrogenproductionfromcurtailedrenewablepowerandvalleyhourspower.rmi.org/Accessconditionsandtradingmechanismsforhydrogenfacilitiestoparticipateinspotmarkets,auxiliaryservices,andmedium-andlong-termtradinginvariouspowermarketsshouldbestudiedandcreatedtofacilitatehydrogenenteringandparticipatinginvariouspowermarkets.Methodologiesforcalculatingcarbonreductionsincleanandlow-carbonhydrogenprojectsshouldbedevelopedtoexplorecoordinateddevelopmentofhydrogenwiththenationalcarbontradingmarket.IncreasepolicysupportforthedevelopmentofrenewablehydrogenprojectsandimprovetheLocalgovernmentsshouldcontinueencouragedtousepoliciessuchasthecarbonemissionsreductionsupporttooloftheCentralBanktocarbonandcleanhydrogenprojects.Toformulatepoliciesinsupportoftechnologicalinnovationinthehydrogenindustry,companies,andresearchinstitutesshouldincreaseinvestmentinandencouragetechnologicalbreakthroughsinbasicmaterials,coretechnologies,andkeycomponentsofhydrogenandfuelcellsthroughtechnicalcooperation,talentintroduction,andtheestablishmentofindustrialfunds.grayhydrogenreplacementandnewenergystorage,appropriatepreferencecanbegiveninareassuchandoperationarrangements,guaranteedusehours,andcompensationassessmentsforauxiliarypowerservices.Theintroductionofalow-carbonandcleanhydrogenquotamechanismshouldbestudiedinthechemicalsandsteelsectors,andcompaniescanreceiveincentivestophaseouthigh-emissionstechnologyandequipmentbysellingthequota.Talentcultivationinthehydrogenindustryshouldbeinlinewiththedualcarbongoals.Coordinatedinnovationinadministration,production,academics,research,andapplicationsshouldbevigorouslypromotedbasedonmajornationalscienceandtechnologymissions,innovationplatforms,andcollegeeducation.Thiswillhelptoachievebalanceddevelopmenttransfer,andsupportservicesinthehydrogenindustry,guaranteeingtalentandprofessionalsupportforthedevelopmentofthehydrogenindustryinChina.EstablishmentofIndustrialTechnologyStandardsEstablishindustryandlocalplatformsandformulateandimplementindustryandgroupstandardsshouldbemadetoactivelyimplementthedevelopmentofhydrogentechnologyandsafety-relatedstandards,acceleratetheestablishmentofaspecialsystemfortheformulationofhydrogenandrenewablehydrogentechnologystandards,andraisetheimportanceofrelevanttechnicalstandards.Theformulationofguidingprinciplesandopinionsforhydrogenandrenewablehydrogentechnologystandardsshouldbeacceleratedtoprovideguidanceanddirectionforindustry-relatedcompaniestoachievecoretechnologyrmi.org/Endnotes1“NoticeoftheNationalEnergyAdministrationonPublicConsultationonEnergyLaw(Consultationhttp://www.nea.gov.cn/2020-04/10/c_138963212.htm.2NDRC,NEA,2022,https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/ghwb/202203/t20220323_1320038.html?code=&state=123.345https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwdt/tzgg/202202/t20220211_1315447.html?code=&state=123.6Hydrogen:ARenewableEnergyPerspective,IRENA,https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/Sep/IRENA_Hydrogen_2019.pdf.7“SeveralOpinionsonPromotingEnergyConservationandCarbonReductioninKeySectorsunderhttp://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2021-10/22/content_5644224.htm.8JoseMBermudezandIlkkaHannula,Hydrogenhttps://www.iea.org/reports/hydrogen.9https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector.10http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/zhi-bo1/20220117fbh1/index.htm.11PursuingZero-CarbonSteelinChinahttps://rmi.org/insight/pursuing-zero-carbon-steel-in-china/.12MEE,2022.13ShiyueMao,etal.,TotalCostofOwnershipforHeavyTrucksinChina:BatteryElectric,FuelCell,andDieselTrucks,2021,https://theicct.org/publication/total-cost-of-ownership-for-heavy-trucks-in-china-battery-electric-fuel-cell-and-diesel-trucks/.14FuelingtheFutureofMobility:HydrogenandFuelCellSolutionsforTransportation,DeloitteChina,2020,https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cn/Documents/finance/deloitte-cn-fueling-the-future-of-mobility-zh-200101.pdf.TingLi,WeiLiu,etal.,China’sGreenHydrogenNewEra:A2030RenewableHydrogen100GWRoadmap,RMI,ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstitute,2022,https://rmi.org/insight/chinas-green-hydrogen-new-era/.RMIvaluescollaborationandaimstoacceleratetheenergytransitionthroughsharingknowledgeandinsights.Wethereforeallowinterestedpartiestoreference,share,andciteourworkthroughtheCreativeCommonsCCBY-SA4.0license.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/.AllimagesusedarefromiStockunlessotherwisenoted.RMIInnovationCenterwww.rmi.org©September2022RMI.Allrightsreserved.RockyMountainInstitute®andRMI®areregisteredtrademarks.ChinaHydrogenAllianceResearchInstituteDongchengDistrict,Beijing
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