中国的早期能源效率投资是实现碳中和与经济发展的关键_Nicholas HowarthVIP专享VIP免费

14 CHINA INVESTMENT
Issue3
4, February 2022 15
中国投资
20222月第3
4
By Nicholas Howarth and Clara CamarasaEnergy Ecicency Policy Analysts, Energy Eciency Division, International Energy Agency
Early investment in energy efciency in
China is key for carbon neutrality and
economic development
China doubled its rate of energy
intensity improvement over the last
decade, helping lift global progress
Over the last decade, the average rate
of energy intensity improvement in China
doubled to around 3.5% each year from the
1.7% seen between 2000 and 2010. This result
was delivered despite the significant slowdown
of energy intensity improvements which has
been observed globally and in China since
2015. The notable improvement in energy
intensity during the first half of the last decade
reflects the priority placed on meeting energy
intensity targets in China’s Five Year Plans
(FYP) and the significant boost to efficiency
spending following the 2008 financial crisis
and the implementation of several mandatory
energy efficiency policies.
Well targeted government support has also
helped build the world’s largest energy service
market with Chinese Energy Service Company
(ESCO) investment making up around 60%
of the global market. Total annual investment
in energy efficiency in China is now estimated
to be around USD 70 billion, up by 15%
compared with pre-crisis levels and accounting
for nearly one-quarter of the global spending.
Improving energy intensity will play a
key role in helping achieve China’s targets
to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030
and reach carbon neutrality before 2060.
At a global level, a doubling of energy
intensity improvement will be needed
over the next decade to reach net
zero emissions by mid- century
In its recently released Energy Efficiency
Market Report, the International Energy
Agency (IEA) found that the global rate of
energy intensity improvement in 2021 is
expected to recover to 1.9% after its worst
year in a decade. In 2020, the impact of the
观察与思考 OBSERVATION AND REFLECTION
Primary energy intensity improvement, 2000-2030
IEA, All rights reserved.Note: 2021 estimate based on World Energy Outlook 2021
Key global energy and economic indicators in the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario
IEA. All rights reserved
14 CHINA INVESTMENT
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4, February 2022 15
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Covid-19 crisis saw a shift in the balance of
economic avtivity away from less energy
intensive services such as hospitality and
energy efficiency enhancements slowed, with
energy intensity improvements falling to 0.5%
at the global level. While the recent economic
recovery brings the rate of improvement back
to its ten year average, it is still only half of
what is needed to put the world on track to
reach net zero emissions by mid-century.
The report also examined over 40 energy
efficiency actions based on the IEA’s Net
Zero by 2050 Roadmap, to help countries
achieve efficiency goals to limit the global
temperature rise to 1.5 °C. This roadmap
recognises that different countries will be
moving at different speeds and will also
choose different options based on national
resources and circumstances. For energy
effcieincy such actions include scaling up
use of mature technologies in buildings,
appliances, transport and industry.
Many of these actions are already
being pursued as part of China’s industrial
enterprises programmes. For example,
encouraging best available technology
for electric motors is key as they account
for approximately 65% of total electricity
consumption in China.
Expanding the scope of efficiency
programmes to include more manufacturing
sectors – such as vehicles, machinery, food,
timber and textiles – also offers large scope
for efficiency gains. This is because more
than 90% of heat demand in light industry
is low and medium temperature, which can
be more easily switched from fossil fuels
to more efficient electric processes, such
as heat pumps. This compares with heavy
industry such as steel and cement where
electrification potential is more limited.
In China, the 14th FYP (2021-2025)
includes a target to reduce carbon intensity
by 18% by 2025 and a target for reducing
energy intensity by 13.5%. This compares
with a 15% energy intensity reduction target
over the 2016-2020 period. As in many
countries, slowing economic growth due
to the pandemic and a shift towards more
energy intensive sectors of the economy
as restrictions reduce activity in sectors
such as hospitality and tourism has slowed
energy intensity improvements in China.
The challenge for policy makers is to
develop and implement policies that can
both support economic growth and enhance
environmental protection. Energy efficiency-
related spending offers this solution, making
up around two-thirds of all clean energy and
sustainable recovery spending, according
to the IEA Sustainable Recovery Tracker.
While China’s past results have been
impressive, the recent slowdown in intensity
improvements, combined with goals to
achieve carbon neutrality, makes lifting
efficiency efforts more important than ever.
Doubling the efficiency of new
appliances by 2030 is possible
and the focus of the world’s
largest ever international energy
efficiency initiative
Efficiency standards and labels have
been shown to reduce electricity demand
by the equivalent of the total electricity
generation of wind and solar energy in the
nine countries and regions for which the
data are available. Such standards have been
in place longer in the European Union and
United States, but China is catching up.
The implementation of standards in China
is already helping avoid around 5% of
total national electricity consumption each
year, reducing annual CO2 emissions by
80 million tonnes. These savings will grow,
as old stock is replaced by more efficient
equipment though standards need to be
continually ratcheted up to optimise savings.
Along with 21 other governments,
China is a member of the Super-efficient
Appliance Deployment (SEAD) Initiative
– a collaboration with the IEA and other
partners to accelerate and strengthen the
design and implementation of appliance
energy efficiency policies.
Such international collaboration enables
governments to design standards based on
global best practice. For example, in November
2021, the IEA and the COP26 Presidency
launched the COP26 Product Efficiency Call to
Action to double the efficiency of key appliances
by 2030 – particularly for lighting, industrial
electric motor systems, air conditioning and
refrigeration. The initiative aims to help countries
raise ambition faster and at a lower cost.
Electric mobility start-ups raise
more money than other sectors,
with strongest activity in China
and the United States
Venture capital (VC) activity can help
track progress of clean energy innovation.
While governments typically account for most
early-stage research and development (R&D)
budgets, energy companies focus on later
stages including for demonstration and product
development. Among them, start-ups can be
more agile than larger companies in developing
new innovative ideas and concepts based on
consumer demand. This is particularly true for
mass-produced products such as appliances,
lighting or heating and cooling technologies,
which have smaller unit sizes and may thus
be less capital intensive to develop and have
shorter time-to-market than other larger or
more complex energy technologies.
OBSERVATION AND REFLECTION 观察与思考
Impact of energy efficiency standards and labelling programmes in selected
countries and regions, 2018
IEA and 4E TCP. All rights reserved.
16 CHINA INVESTMENT
Issue3
4, February 2022 17
中国投资
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VC investments in energy efficiency and
electric mobility start-ups are concentrated in
a few places in the world. Over the 2018-2020
period, companies headquartered in the United
States attracted about 40% of such financing,
followed by China (30%) and the European
Union (10%) (excluding large deals of USD
500 million or above in a single round that can
mask underlying trends). Strong investment
activity has been observed around transport
electrification in China, which has benefited
from targeted support since around 2015, and
in the United States, where a series of deals
above USD 1 billion was recorded. In contrast,
buildings, power and industry have attracted
much less energy efficiency VC globally,
and there are many remaining technology
innovation gaps and opportunities in these
sectors to achieve net-zero ambitions.
Energy efficiency can help improve
the quality of economic growth
and ease supply chain pressures
Enhancing energy intensity improvements
over the next ten years will also be a key measure
to improve the quality of economic progress in
China consistent with government aspirations. An
important part of this is the government’s desire
to firmly curb the development of high energy
consumption projects and develop higher value
industries, such as next generation materials and
clean energy vehicles, while transitioning away
from a reliance on coal power, steel, aluminium
and petrochemicals.
Such policies also have strong short-term
relevance, given the recent increase in demand
for materials in China and supply chain
pressures that put upwards pressure on global
commodity prices in 2021 and contributed to
the Chinese government imposing restrictions
on energy intensive industries.
For example, while China accounts for
around 60% of global steel production, the
government in 2021 moved to limit production
to the levels of approximately 1 billion tonnes
that were produced in 2020. Restrictions were
introduced, as the country had already gone
12% above what was needed to hit this target
by June 2021. Increasing efficiency would help
deliver desired pollution and CO2 redution
goals while reducing the need to restrict output.
Energy efficiency offers a unique
opportunity to support China’s efforts to
achieve carbon neutrality and economic
development across sectors. Ensuring
sufficient and timely investments in energy
efficiency in buildings, industry and transport
will be vital to seize this opportunity.
The IEA continues to support China’s
clean energy transition so that resources are
used in the most efficient and sustainable way
possible. Programmes and initiatives such as
the E4 Programme can help China build on its
achievement of doubling its energy intensity
improvement over the last decade. This shows
the kind of progress that can be achieved through
successful implementation of appropriate
policies; whilst simultaneously taking advantage
of the multiple benefits associated with
energy efficiency such as increased industrial
productivity, local job creation, and health
benefits from reduced local air pollution.
Cumulative VC investments in clean energy start-ups active in fields of
energy efficiency and electric mobility between 2018 and 2020,
by technology area and region
IEA analysis based on Cleantech Group, i3 database. All rights reserved.
Notes: RoW = Rest of the World. Left hand chart is for transport venture capital investment, while right hand
chart is for all other investment. Includes grants, seed, series A and B, growth equity, late-stage private equity
and buyout, private investment in public equity, and coin/token offering financing rounds. The figure excludes
very large investments of USD 500 million and above in a single deal that distort annual trends. These
aggregated to about USD 5.8 billion in China, USD 2.2 billion in the European Union, USD 20.4 billion in the
United States, and USD 2.2 billion in the rest of the world. These were primarily focusing on electric mobility.
Global price indices for key commodities linked to construction and efficient
equipment, January 2019- August 2021
IEA. All rights reserved.
观察与思考 OBSERVATION AND REFLECTION
14CHINAINVESTMENTIssue3、4,February2022ByNicholasHowarthandClaraCamarasa,EnergyEfficicencyPolicyAnalysts,EnergyEfficiencyDivision,InternationalEnergyAgencyEarlyinvestmentinenergyefficiencyinChinaiskeyforcarbonneutralityandeconomicdevelopmentChinadoubleditsrateofenergyintensityimprovementoverthelastdecade,helpingliftglobalprogressOverthelastdecade,theaveragerateofenergyintensityimprovementinChinadoubledtoaround3.5%eachyearfromthe1.7%seenbetween2000and2010.ThisresultwasdelivereddespitethesignificantslowdownofenergyintensityimprovementswhichhasbeenobservedgloballyandinChinasince2015.ThenotableimprovementinenergyintensityduringthefirsthalfofthelastdecadereflectsthepriorityplacedonmeetingenergyintensitytargetsinChina’sFiveYearPlans(FYP)andthesignificantboosttoefficiencyspendingfollowingthe2008financialcrisisandtheimplementationofseveralmandatoryenergyefficiencypolicies.Welltargetedgovernmentsupporthasalsohelpedbuildtheworld’slargestenergyservicemarketwithChineseEnergyServiceCompany(ESCO)investmentmakinguparound60%oftheglobalmarket.TotalannualinvestmentinenergyefficiencyinChinaisnowestimatedtobearoundUSD70billion,upby15%comparedwithpre-crisislevelsandaccountingfornearlyone-quarteroftheglobalspending.ImprovingenergyintensitywillplayakeyroleinhelpingachieveChina’stargetstohaveCO2emissionspeakbefore2030andreachcarbonneutralitybefore2060.Atagloballevel,adoublingofenergyintensityimprovementwillbeneededoverthenextdecadetoreachnetzeroemissionsbymid-centuryInitsrecentlyreleasedEnergyEfficiencyMarketReport,theInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)foundthattheglobalrateofenergyintensityimprovementin2021isexpectedtorecoverto1.9%afteritsworstyearinadecade.In2020,theimpactofthe观察与思考OBSERVATIONANDREFLECTIONPrimaryenergyintensityimprovement,2000-2030IEA,Allrightsreserved.Note:2021estimatebasedonWorldEnergyOutlook2021KeyglobalenergyandeconomicindicatorsintheIEANetZeroby2050ScenarioIEA.Allrightsreserved15中国投资2022年2月第3、4期Covid-19crisissawashiftinthebalanceofeconomicavtivityawayfromlessenergyintensiveservicessuchashospitalityandenergyefficiencyenhancementsslowed,withenergyintensityimprovementsfallingto0.5%atthegloballevel.Whiletherecenteconomicrecoverybringstherateofimprovementbacktoitstenyearaverage,itisstillonlyhalfofwhatisneededtoputtheworldontracktoreachnetzeroemissionsbymid-century.Thereportalsoexaminedover40energyefficiencyactionsbasedontheIEA’sNetZeroby2050Roadmap,tohelpcountriesachieveefficiencygoalstolimittheglobaltemperatureriseto1.5°C.Thisroadmaprecognisesthatdifferentcountrieswillbemovingatdifferentspeedsandwillalsochoosedifferentoptionsbasedonnationalresourcesandcircumstances.Forenergyeffcieincysuchactionsincludescalingupuseofmaturetechnologiesinbuildings,appliances,transportandindustry.ManyoftheseactionsarealreadybeingpursuedaspartofChina’sindustrialenterprisesprogrammes.Forexample,encouragingbestavailabletechnologyforelectricmotorsiskeyastheyaccountforapproximately65%oftotalelectricityconsumptioninChina.Expandingthescopeofefficiencyprogrammestoincludemoremanufacturingsectors–suchasvehicles,machinery,food,timberandtextiles–alsoofferslargescopeforefficiencygains.Thisisbecausemorethan90%ofheatdemandinlightindustryislowandmediumtemperature,whichcanbemoreeasilyswitchedfromfossilfuelstomoreefficientelectricprocesses,suchasheatpumps.Thiscompareswithheavyindustrysuchassteelandcementwhereelectrificationpotentialismorelimited.InChina,the14thFYP(2021-2025)includesatargettoreducecarbonintensityby18%by2025andatargetforreducingenergyintensityby13.5%.Thiscompareswitha15%energyintensityreductiontargetoverthe2016-2020period.Asinmanycountries,slowingeconomicgrowthduetothepandemicandashifttowardsmoreenergyintensivesectorsoftheeconomyasrestrictionsreduceactivityinsectorssuchashospitalityandtourismhasslowedenergyintensityimprovementsinChina.Thechallengeforpolicymakersistodevelopandimplementpoliciesthatcanbothsupporteconomicgrowthandenhanceenvironmentalprotection.Energyefficiency-relatedspendingoffersthissolution,makinguparoundtwo-thirdsofallcleanenergyandsustainablerecoveryspending,accordingtotheIEASustainableRecoveryTracker.WhileChina’spastresultshavebeenimpressive,therecentslowdowninintensityimprovements,combinedwithgoalstoachievecarbonneutrality,makesliftingefficiencyeffortsmoreimportantthanever.Doublingtheefficiencyofnewappliancesby2030ispossibleandthefocusoftheworld’slargesteverinternationalenergyefficiencyinitiativeEfficiencystandardsandlabelshavebeenshowntoreduceelectricitydemandbytheequivalentofthetotalelectricitygenerationofwindandsolarenergyintheninecountriesandregionsforwhichthedataareavailable.SuchstandardshavebeeninplacelongerintheEuropeanUnionandUnitedStates,butChinaiscatchingup.TheimplementationofstandardsinChinaisalreadyhelpingavoidaround5%oftotalnationalelectricityconsumptioneachyear,reducingannualCO2emissionsby80milliontonnes.Thesesavingswillgrow,asoldstockisreplacedbymoreefficientequipmentthoughstandardsneedtobecontinuallyratcheteduptooptimisesavings.Alongwith21othergovernments,ChinaisamemberoftheSuper-efficientApplianceDeployment(SEAD)Initiative–acollaborationwiththeIEAandotherpartnerstoaccelerateandstrengthenthedesignandimplementationofapplianceenergyefficiencypolicies.Suchinternationalcollaborationenablesgovernmentstodesignstandardsbasedonglobalbestpractice.Forexample,inNovember2021,theIEAandtheCOP26PresidencylaunchedtheCOP26ProductEfficiencyCalltoActiontodoubletheefficiencyofkeyappliancesby2030–particularlyforlighting,industrialelectricmotorsystems,airconditioningandrefrigeration.Theinitiativeaimstohelpcountriesraiseambitionfasterandatalowercost.Electricmobilitystart-upsraisemoremoneythanothersectors,withstrongestactivityinChinaandtheUnitedStatesVenturecapital(VC)activitycanhelptrackprogressofcleanenergyinnovation.Whilegovernmentstypicallyaccountformostearly-stageresearchanddevelopment(R&D)budgets,energycompaniesfocusonlaterstagesincludingfordemonstrationandproductdevelopment.Amongthem,start-upscanbemoreagilethanlargercompaniesindevelopingnewinnovativeideasandconceptsbasedonconsumerdemand.Thisisparticularlytrueformass-producedproductssuchasappliances,lightingorheatingandcoolingtechnologies,whichhavesmallerunitsizesandmaythusbelesscapitalintensivetodevelopandhaveshortertime-to-marketthanotherlargerormorecomplexenergytechnologies.OBSERVATIONANDREFLECTION观察与思考Impactofenergyefficiencystandardsandlabellingprogrammesinselectedcountriesandregions,2018IEAand4ETCP.Allrightsreserved.16CHINAINVESTMENTIssue3、4,February2022VCinvestmentsinenergyefficiencyandelectricmobilitystart-upsareconcentratedinafewplacesintheworld.Overthe2018-2020period,companiesheadquarteredintheUnitedStatesattractedabout40%ofsuchfinancing,followedbyChina(30%)andtheEuropeanUnion(10%)(excludinglargedealsofUSD500millionoraboveinasingleroundthatcanmaskunderlyingtrends).StronginvestmentactivityhasbeenobservedaroundtransportelectrificationinChina,whichhasbenefitedfromtargetedsupportsincearound2015,andintheUnitedStates,whereaseriesofdealsaboveUSD1billionwasrecorded.Incontrast,buildings,powerandindustryhaveattractedmuchlessenergyefficiencyVCglobally,andtherearemanyremainingtechnologyinnovationgapsandopportunitiesinthesesectorstoachievenet-zeroambitions.EnergyefficiencycanhelpimprovethequalityofeconomicgrowthandeasesupplychainpressuresEnhancingenergyintensityimprovementsoverthenexttenyearswillalsobeakeymeasuretoimprovethequalityofeconomicprogressinChinaconsistentwithgovernmentaspirations.Animportantpartofthisisthegovernment’sdesiretofirmlycurbthedevelopmentofhighenergyconsumptionprojectsanddevelophighervalueindustries,suchasnextgenerationmaterialsandcleanenergyvehicles,whiletransitioningawayfromarelianceoncoalpower,steel,aluminiumandpetrochemicals.Suchpoliciesalsohavestrongshort-termrelevance,giventherecentincreaseindemandformaterialsinChinaandsupplychainpressuresthatputupwardspressureonglobalcommoditypricesin2021andcontributedtotheChinesegovernmentimposingrestrictionsonenergyintensiveindustries.Forexample,whileChinaaccountsforaround60%ofglobalsteelproduction,thegovernmentin2021movedtolimitproductiontothelevelsofapproximately1billiontonnesthatwereproducedin2020.Restrictionswereintroduced,asthecountryhadalreadygone12%abovewhatwasneededtohitthistargetbyJune2021.IncreasingefficiencywouldhelpdeliverdesiredpollutionandCO2redutiongoalswhilereducingtheneedtorestrictoutput.EnergyefficiencyoffersauniqueopportunitytosupportChina’seffortstoachievecarbonneutralityandeconomicdevelopmentacrosssectors.Ensuringsufficientandtimelyinvestmentsinenergyefficiencyinbuildings,industryandtransportwillbevitaltoseizethisopportunity.TheIEAcontinuestosupportChina’scleanenergytransitionsothatresourcesareusedinthemostefficientandsustainablewaypossible.ProgrammesandinitiativessuchastheE4ProgrammecanhelpChinabuildonitsachievementofdoublingitsenergyintensityimprovementoverthelastdecade.Thisshowsthekindofprogressthatcanbeachievedthroughsuccessfulimplementationofappropriatepolicies;whilstsimultaneouslytakingadvantageofthemultiplebenefitsassociatedwithenergyefficiencysuchasincreasedindustrialproductivity,localjobcreation,andhealthbenefitsfromreducedlocalairpollution.CumulativeVCinvestmentsincleanenergystart-upsactiveinfieldsofenergyefficiencyandelectricmobilitybetween2018and2020,bytechnologyareaandregionIEAanalysisbasedonCleantechGroup,i3database.Allrightsreserved.Notes:RoW=RestoftheWorld.Lefthandchartisfortransportventurecapitalinvestment,whilerighthandchartisforallotherinvestment.Includesgrants,seed,seriesAandB,growthequity,late-stageprivateequityandbuyout,privateinvestmentinpublicequity,andcoin/tokenofferingfinancingrounds.ThefigureexcludesverylargeinvestmentsofUSD500millionandaboveinasingledealthatdistortannualtrends.TheseaggregatedtoaboutUSD5.8billioninChina,USD2.2billionintheEuropeanUnion,USD20.4billionintheUnitedStates,andUSD2.2billionintherestoftheworld.Thesewereprimarilyfocusingonelectricmobility.Globalpriceindicesforkeycommoditieslinkedtoconstructionandefficientequipment,January2019-August2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.观察与思考OBSERVATIONANDREFLECTION17中国投资2022年2月第3、4期中国的早期能源效率投资是实现碳中和与经济发展的关键改善能源强度将为助力中国实现在2030年前二氧化碳排放达到峰值,并在2060年前实现碳中和的目标方面发挥关键作用中国在过去十年里将其能源强度的改善速度提高了一倍,推进了全球进展在过去的十年里,中国能源强度的平均改善率翻了一番,从2000-2010年的1.7%提高到每年3.5%左右。尽管自2015年以来,全球和中国的能源强度改善速度明显放缓,但仍取得了这一成果。2011-2015年间,能源强度的显著改善反映了中国五年规划中对实现能源强度目标的优先考虑,以及在2008年金融危机和实施若干强制性能源效率政策后对能效支出的显著推动。目标明确的政府支持也帮助建立了世界上最大的能源服务市场,中国能源服务公司(ESCO)的投资约占全球市场的60%。目前,中国每年在能源效率方面的投资总额估计约为700亿美元,与疫情前的水平相比增加了15%,占全球支出的近1/4。改善能源强度将为助力中国实现在2030年前二氧化碳排放达到峰值,并在2060年前实现碳中和的目标方面发挥关键作用。在全球范围内,为了在本世纪中叶达到净零排放,需要在未来十年内将能源强度改善率提高一倍在最新发布的《能源效率市场报告》中,国际能源署(IEA)发现在经历了十文|NicholasHowarthandClaraCamarasa国际能源署能效部能效分析师图1一次能源强度的改善,2000年至2030年资料来源:IEA,Allrightsreserved.备注:2021年的估测基于世界能源展望2021图2在国际能源署2050年净零排放情景中的关键能源和经济指标年资料来源:IEA.AllrightsreservedOBSERVATIONANDREFLECTION观察与思考18CHINAINVESTMENTIssue3、4,February2022年来最糟糕的一年之后,2021年全球能源强度改善率预计将恢复到1.9%。2020年,在Covid-19危机的影响下,经济活动的平衡从能源密集度较低的服务(如餐旅服务业)转离,能源效率的提高也放缓,全球范围内能源强度的改善率下降到0.5%。虽然最近的经济复苏使改善率回到了十年的平均水平,但仅为本世纪中叶全球实现净零排放所需速率的一半。该报告还根据国际能源署的《全球能源行业2050净零排放路线图》研究了40多项能效行动,以帮助各国实现能效目标,将全球温度上升限制在1.5摄氏度以内。该路线图认识到,不同的国家将以不同的速度前进,也将根据各国资源和情况选择不同的方案。在能源效率方面,这些行动包括在建筑、电器、交通和工业中扩大使用成熟技术。这些行动中有许多作为中国工业企业计划的一部分已经实施。例如,电机占据中国电力消纳约65%,因此鼓励采用最佳可用电机技术至关重要。通过囊括更多的制造部门(如车辆、机械、食品、木材和纺织品)扩大能效行动的范围,也提供了巨大的效率提高空间。这是因为轻工业中90%以上的热需求是中低温的,可以更容易地从化石燃料转向更高效的电力过程,如热泵。与此相比,钢铁和水泥等重工业的电气转化潜力更为有限。在中国,十四五规划(2021-2025)涵盖了到2025年将碳强度降低18%的目标和将能源强度降低13.5%的目标。与此相比,2016-2020年期间的能源强度降低目标为15%。与许多国家一样,由于新冠疫情导致的经济增长放缓,以及随着限制措施减少餐旅服务业和旅游业等部门的活动,经济向能源密集型产业的转移,减缓了中国能源强度的改善。政策制定者面临的挑战是制定和实施既能支持经济增长,又能加强环境保护的政策。根据国际能源署《可持续复苏跟踪》能源效率相关的支出占所有清洁能源和可持续复苏支出的2/3左右,提供了相应的解决方案。中国过去的成果令人印象深刻,但最近能源强度改善的放缓,加上实现碳中和的目标,使得提升能效的努力比以往任何时候都更加重要。到2030年将新电器的效率提高一倍是可能的,这也是世界上有史以来最大的国际能源效率倡议的重点在有数据可查的九个国家和地区中,效率标准和标签减少的电力需求量,相当于风能和太阳能的总发电量。这些标准在欧盟和美国实施的时间更长,但中国正在迎头赶上。在中国,标准的实施已经帮助每年避免了全国总电力消耗的5%左右,每年减少8000万吨的二氧化碳排放。随着旧设备被更高效的设备所取代,这些节约将越来越多,尽管标准需要不断提高以优化节能。与其他21个国家的政府一起,中国是“超高效设备和家电推广计划”(SEAD)倡议的成员,该倡议与国际能源署和其他合作伙伴合作一起,以加速和加强家电能效政策的设计和实施。这种国际合作使各国政府能够在全球最佳实践的基础上设计标准。例如,2021年11月,国际能源署和联合国第二十六届气候变化大会(COP26)主席国发起了COP26产品能效行动呼吁,以实现于2030年将主要电器的能效提高一倍,特别是照明、工业电机系统、空调和制冷。该倡议旨在帮助各国以更低的成本更快地提高气候雄心。电动出行初创企业比其他行业筹集更多资金,在中国和美国的活动最有力风险投资(VC)活动可以帮助跟踪清洁能源创新的进展。政府通常占早期研究和开发(R&D)预算的大部分,而能源公司专注于后期阶段,包括用于示范和产品开发。其中,在根据消费者需求开发新的创新想法和概念方面,初创企业可能比大公司更灵活。对于大批量生产、单位规模较小的产品尤其如此,如电器、照明或供暖和制冷技术,正因这些产品的单位规模较小,与其他较大或较复杂的能源技术相比,开发的资本密集度可能较低,上市所需时间较短。图3能源效率标准和标签项目在部分国家和地区的影响,2018年资料来源:IEAand4ETCP.Allrightsreserved.观察与思考OBSERVATIONANDREFLECTION19中国投资2022年2月第3、4期对能源效率和电动出行初创企业的风险投资集中在世界几个地方。在2018-2020年期间,总部设在美国的公司吸引了约40%的此类融资,其次是中国(30%)和欧盟(10%)(不包括单轮5亿美元或以上的大型交易,因为这些交易可能掩盖基本趋势)。在中国和美国,围绕交通领域电动化的投资活动十分活跃,中国从2015年左右开始受益于有针对性的支持,美国则有一系列超过10亿美元的交易记录。相比之下,建筑、电力和工业在全球范围内吸引的能效风险投资要少得多,而且在这些部门实现净零排放的目标方面还有许多技术创新的差距和机会。能源效率可以帮助提高经济增长的质量,缓解供应链的压力在未来十年,加强改善能源强度也将是提高中国经济进步质量的关键措施,这与政府的愿景相一致。其中一个重要因素是政府对于坚决遏制高能耗项目发展及发展更高价值产业的期望,如下一代材料和清洁能源汽车,同时逐渐减少对煤电、钢铁、铝和石化产品的依赖。鉴于最近中国对材料的需求增加,供应链的压力在2021年对全球商品价格造成上升压力,并促使中国政府对能源密集型产业施加限制,这些政策也具有很强的短期相关性。例如,虽然中国占全球钢铁产量的60%左右,但政府在2021年采取行动,将产量限制在2020年生产的约10亿吨的水平。由于中国在2021年6月之前已经比这一目标高出了12%,因此出台了限制措施。提高效率将有助于实现预期的污染和二氧化碳减排目标,同时减少对产出的限制。能源效率为支持中国实现碳中和的努力和各部门的经济发展提供了一个独特的机会。确保对建筑、工业和交通领域的能源效率进行充分和及时的投资,对于抓住这一机遇至关重要。国际能源署将持续支持中国的清洁能源转型,从而尽可能以最有效和可持续的方式使用资源。像“E4计划”这样的项目和倡议可以帮助中国在过去十年中实现能源强度改善翻番的基础上继续前进。这表明通过成功实施适当的政策可以取得相当的进展;同时利用与能源效率相关的多种益处,如提高工业生产力、创造当地就业机会,以及减少当地空气污染带来的公共卫生改善。图5与建筑和高效设备相关的主要商品的全球价格指数2019年1月至2021年8月资料来源:IEA.Allrightsreserved.图4对活跃在能源效率和电动汽车领域的清洁能源初创企业的累计风险投资情况,按技术领域和地区划分,2018年至2020年资料来源:IEAanalysisbasedonCleantechGroup,i3database.Allrightsreserved.备注:RoW=世界其他地区。左图是交通领域风险资本投资,而右图是所有其他投资。包括赠款、种子、A轮和B轮投资、成长型股权、后期私募股权和收购、公共股权的私人投资以及货币/代币发行融资回合。该数字不包括单笔交易中的5亿美元及以上的大额投资,因为这些投资扭曲了年度趋势。这些投资总额在中国约为58亿美元,在欧盟约为22亿美元,在美国约为204亿美元,在世界其他地区为约22亿美元。这些投资主要集中在电动汽车方面。OBSERVATIONANDREFLECTION观察与思考

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