2024年东盟清洁能源发展路径洞察报告(英文版)VIP专享

ASEAN’scleanpowerpathways:2024insightsGrowingelectricitydemandandrelianceonfossilfuelsinASEANcontinuetohinderclimategoalsandeconomicopportunities.Solar,windandbatteries,supportedbyinternationalcooperationandgridinterconnection,offerthebestsolutions.Publisheddate:22October2024Authors:DinitaSetyawati,ShabrinaNadhila1ContentsExecutiveSummaryIntroductionPowersector2023ElectricitylandscapeinASEANStateoftransitionASEANneedstoscaleuprenewablestohelpmeetrisingdemandPolicyinsightsPoliciesinthepowersectorandthewiderlandscapeWhat’shotin2024ASEANisfeelingtheheattotransitionKeyrecommendationsConclusionSupportingMaterialsAboutThisreportprovidesabriefoverviewofASEAN’spowersectorlandscapein2023,tracksenergytransitiondevelopmentinthepastfiveyears,presentsseveralscenariosondecarbonisationforASEAN,documentspolicychangesinthepastyearandemergingdiscoursesinASEANenergytransition.Thisreportpresentsstrategiestofine-tuningpoliciestoreducedependenceonfossilfuelsandstartthesystemicshiftnecessaryforacleanpowersectortransition,providingstrategicguidanceforpolicymakers,researchersandenergypractitionersintheregion.2Highlights+3.6%+62%21TWhRiseinelectricitydemandin2023,thatwasentirelymetbyfossilfuelsPercentagepointofaveragebioenergycostcomparedwithwindandsolarDeclineinhydrogenerationbetween2022and2023despite0.5GWcapacityaddition3-5xASEAN’srenewablecapacityincreaseby2035accordingtoseveralpublishedpathways3ExecutiveSummaryASEANisthenextgrowthpowerhouse-willrenewableenergyleadthecharge?ASEANhasambitiouseconomicgrowthtargets,whilsttransitioningawayfromcoalandseekingsuitablerenewablessolutions.ASEANeconomicgrowthremainsstrongandresilient,drivenbydomesticandglobaldemand.Ongoingindustrialisation,electrificationanddigitalisationareexpectedtodrivegreaterelectricitydemand,puttingmorepressureonaregiontraditionallydependentonfossilfuels.Demandissettoincreaseevenfurther,upto41%by2030from2023level.4IfASEANcontinuesitsenergytransitionatthecurrentpace,itrisksmissingoutontheopportunitiesprovidedbythedecliningcostsofwindandsolar,nowcheaperthanfossilfuels.Between2018and2022,38GWofrenewableenergycapacitywasadded,withabout44%comingfromsolarcapacitygrowthinVietNam.However,replicatingthissuccessischallengingduetocurtailmentrisksandgridconstraints,leadingtogovernmentstakingamorecautiousapproachandslowingdowntheshiftawayfromfossilfuels.Currentplansindicatethatmuchoftherisingelectricitydemandwillbemetbyfossilfuels,potentiallyincreasingimportdependenceforsomecountries,asseenwithSingaporeandMalaysia’srelianceongas.InothercountrieslikeIndonesia,maintainingcoaldependencyrisksunderminingtheirpotentialcontributiontoclimatetargets.Inlightofthedroughtsandchangingclimaticconditionsin2023,hydroisbecominglessreliablefortheenergytransition.Bioenergy,oftenseenbythegovernmentasthemostpromisingsolutionforenergysecurityandeconomicdevelopment,particularlyforfarmers,faceschallengessuchasseasonality,unpredictability,limitedmaximumquantityandfoodversusfuelallocations,makingitanexpensiveenergysourceinASEAN.Wind,solarandbatteriesofferapromisingwayforward,asseeninothercountries.Moreover,alevelizedcostofelectricity(LCOE)andauctionpricesconfirmthatsolarisamongstthecheapestenergysourcesforelectricitygeneration.Acrosstheregion,solarandwindhaveinterestingcomplementarities,showingthatASEANcaneaseitscollectiveenergytransitionjourneythroughcooperationa...

1、当您付费下载文档后,您只拥有了使用权限,并不意味着购买了版权,文档只能用于自身使用,不得用于其他商业用途(如 [转卖]进行直接盈利或[编辑后售卖]进行间接盈利)。
2、本站所有内容均由合作方或网友上传,本站不对文档的完整性、权威性及其观点立场正确性做任何保证或承诺!文档内容仅供研究参考,付费前请自行鉴别。
3、如文档内容存在违规,或者侵犯商业秘密、侵犯著作权等,请点击“违规举报”。

碎片内容

碳中和
已认证
内容提供者

碳中和

确认删除?
回到顶部
微信客服
  • 管理员微信
QQ客服
  • QQ客服点击这里给我发消息
客服邮箱