GeneratedbyAIShellScenariosshell.com/scenariosThe2025EnergySecurityScenariosEnergyandartificialintelligence2ShellScenariosThe2025EnergySecurityScenariosTheriseofartificialintelligence3AIandtheevolutionoftheenergysystem3Keyobservations5Newdirectionsinthe21stcentury7Amixedglobalpicture7Technologytrends8Nationalresponsearchetypes10Threesecurityscenarios12Artificialintelligenceandeconomicgrowth13Threesecurityscenarios:Surge16Threesecurityscenarios:Archipelagos19Threesecurityscenarios:Horizon20Changestotheenergysystem21Energydemand23Futureoildemand25Thefuturefornaturalgas26LNGinthreescenarios27Low-carbonfuels28Theriseofrenewables33Electrificationinfinalenergy34Anuclearrenaissance?35Carbonmanagementandemissions37Land-usechange43Policy,theemissionsgapandtemperature45MeetingtheParisgoal47Finalthoughts49TechnologytimelinesinThe2025EnergySecurityScenarios50Referencesandacknowledgements51Legaldisclaimer56ContentsShellScenariosThe2025EnergySecurityScenarios3ShellScenariosThe2025EnergySecurityScenariosWhenShellpublishedTheEnergySecurityScenariosinMarch2023,thefocusoftheworldwasonhighenergyprices,withthecostofelectricityatrecordlevelsinmuchofEurope.ChatGPTwasfourmonthsoldatthetimeandwhileitisbarelythetipoftheartificialintelligence(AI)iceberg,ithasneverthelessbeenagame-changerintermsofpublicawarenessofanewtechnologywave.FacedwiththequestionofwhattheriseofAImightmeanfortheenergysystem,weagainmakeuseofscenarioanalysis.AtShell,scenarioanalysisplaysakeyroleincreatingcontextandgrowingunderstandingaroundenergysystem,technology,geopoliticalandsocialtrends.Scenariosareanexplorationofhowtheworldcouldpossiblyevolveunderdifferentsetsofassumptions.Theprocessofcreatingscenariosinvolvesconsideringdifferentpossiblefutures,someofwhichmayseemunlikelyorevensurprising.ThevaluetoShellofproducingscenariosistohelpseniormanagementthinkaboutthelong-termchallengesthebusinesscouldface.Inthisway,scenariosmayinfluencethecompany’sstrategy–asoneofmanyinputs.ButscenariosarenotexpressionsofShell’sstrategyorbusinessplan.Shellscenariosareinformedbydata,constructedusingmodels,andtheycontaininsightsfromleadingexpertsinrelevantfields.TheriseofartificialintelligenceAIandtheevolutionoftheenergysystemTheinfluenceofAIisbeingfeltinmanyareas,butoverthenext20to30yearsitcouldbringsignificantchangetotheenergysystem.•Productionofmodules(suchassolarphotovoltaicpanels,batteriesandheatpumps)fortheenergysystemcouldaccelerateasAIimprovesmanufacturinganddeliversevermorecomplexassemblylineproductionofcomponents.•Autonomoussystemsareappearinginvehicles.Whenvehiclesbegintooperateautonomouslyonalargerscalewithinamanagedtrafficenvironment,systemefficienciescouldbeconsiderable,whichcouldsparkamorerapiduptakeofelectricvehicles(EVs).•AmanagedEVsystemallowsthebatterystorageinherentinthevehiclestocontributetoelectricitygridstorageandflexibilityrequirements,hasteningthejourneytoarenewable-onlyelectricitysystem.•Asquantumadvantageemerges(thepointatwhichaquantumcomputingsystemsolvesproblemsoutsidethereachofclassicalalgorithms),advancesinmaterialsscience,electrochemistry,biotechnologyandnuclearengineeringcouldaccelerateelectrificationandenergystorage,introducenewsustainablefuelprocessesandbringsafemodularnuclearreactorsintoavarietyofstationaryandmobileapplications.•LargeenergyinfrastructureprojectscouldbeacceleratedasnewAItoolsareappliedtopro...