OCTOBER2024WithinreachThe2025CO2targetsfornewpassengercarsintheEuropeanUnionJANDORNOFFACKNOWLEDGMENTSThankstoMarieRajonBernard,PeterMock,andUweTietgeoftheICCTfortheirreviews.ThanksalsotoYoannGimbertofTransport&Environment;hisreviewdoesnotimplyanendorsement.InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportationEuropeFasanenstrasse85,10623Berlin,Germanycommunications@theicct.org|www.theicct.org|@TheICCT©2024InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation(ID242)iICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONEXECUTIVESUMMARYThisanalysisestimatesthecarbondioxide(CO2)targetsmanufacturerswillfacein2025andcomparesthosewiththeCO2performanceoftheir2023vehiclefleetifitweretoremainunchangeduntil2025.Wefindthat,tomeet2025CO2targets,manufacturerswillneedtoreduceCO2emissionsby12%,onaverage,comparedwiththeemissionsoftheir2023vehiclefleet.Therequiredreductionforindividualmanufacturersthatwerenotalreadybelowthetargetrangesfrom9%–21%.Withadvantageouspoolingbymanufacturers,therangeofrequiredCO2reductionscouldnarrowto6%–13%,whichisclosetotheaveragerequiredreductionof12%.InanextremecaseoftheCO2emissionsofcombustionenginevehiclesremainingconstant,manufacturerswouldneedtoincreasetheirbatteryelectricvehicle(BEV)marketshareswithin2yearsbyamaximumof8–18percentagepointscomparedwith2023.Forthehypotheticalpoolsinthisanalysis,therequiredBEVmarketsharegrowthwoulddropto4–12percentagepoints.TheaverageCO2reductionof12%requiredfrom2023–2025isabouthalfthe23%fleet-averageCO2reductionobservedbetween2019and2021.TheincreaseinBEVmarketsharerequiredforthehypotheticalmanufacturerpoolsinthisstudyisatmostabout1–1.5timesashighasthe8percentagepointgrowthobservedfrom2019–2021;atthattime,however,fewerBEVmodelswith,onaverage,lowerrangewereonthemarketandthecharginginfrastructurewasmuchlessdeveloped.BesidesincreasingtheBEVmarketshare,manufacturerscanreducetheaverageCO2emissionlevelsoftheirinternalcombustionenginevehiclesbypromotingthemoreefficientvehiclesoftheirportfolio.Furthermore,deployingmildhybridizationcanreduceCO2emissionsbyatleast7%–15%,dependingonthetechnologypackage.Althoughdetrimentalforreal-worldCO2emissions,manufacturerscanalsoincreasetheshareofplug-inhybridvehiclesand/orfurtherlowertheirCO2emissionvaluesbyextendingtheelectricrangeofthesevehicles.iiICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONFigureES1Powertraintypesharesin2023andmaximumrequiredelectricvehiclesharestomeet2025CO2targetsforhypotheticalmanufacturerpools65%20%15%15%27%58%+890%8%2%2%20%78%+1278%14%8%8%24%68%+1073%22%5%5%30%64%+977%14%10%10%22%68%+865%16%19%19%20%61%+4Toyota−Renault−Nissan−MitsubishiVolkswagen−TeslaVolvo−FordBMWKia−HyundaiMercedes−Stellantis2023202520232025202320250%25%50%75%100%0%25%50%75%100%RegistrationshareCombustionenginePlug−inhybridBatteryelectric(maximumshare)Notes:Dataisshownforsixhypotheticalpools(sortedalphabetically)ofthe10largestmanufacturersthatdidnotproduceonlybatteryelectricvehiclesin2023plusTesla.ItassumesthatmanufacturersonlyadjusttheirBEVsharestomeettargets.THEINTERNATIONALCOUNCILONCLEANTRANSPORTATIONTHEICCT.ORGiiiICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNIONTABLEOFCONTENTSExecutivesummary....................................................................................................................iIntroduction.............................................