新能源电力系统仿真技术及应用TheSimulationTechnologyandApplicationofRenewableEnergyPowerSystems郭琦QiGuo2024年10月珠海October2024,Zhuhai知识产权声明本文件的知识产权属南方电网公司所有。对本文件的使用及处置应严格遵循南方电网公司有关规定或获取本文件的合同及约定的条件和要求。未经南方电网公司事先书面同意，不得对外披露、复制。IntealPropertyRightsStatementThisdocumentistheproperndcontainsproprietaryinformationownedbyCSGand/oritsrelatedproprietor.Youagrereatthisdocumentinstrictaccordancewiththetermsandconditionsoftheagreementwhichitwasprovidedtoyou.NodisclosureorcopyofthisdocumentispermittedwithoutriorwrittenpermissionofCSG.引言Introduction挑战与发展ChallengeandDevelopment典型案例Typicalcase总结展望SummaryandProspect二三四目录Content3●近年来，我国新能源发展迅速，装机容量不断增加Inrecentyears,China'srenewableenergyhasdevelopedrapidly,withinstalledcapacitycontinuouslyincreasing.●截至2023年底，全国新能源装机10.5亿千瓦，占比35.96%;预计2030年全国新能源装机将超15.5亿千瓦，占比超40%Asoftheendof2023,thetotalinstalledcapacityofrenewableenergyreached1.05billionkW(35.96%).Itisestimatedthatby2030,thetotalinstalledcapacityofrenewableenergywillreach1.55billionkW(40%).新能源发展迅速，我国电网结构正逐步发生变革TherapiddevelopmentofrenewableenergyistransformingChina'spowersupplystructure风电13%核电2%水电17%2020年我国电源结构太阳能发电21%风电15%核电2%太阳能发电24%风电16%核电3%2030年我国电源结构预测总装机约40亿kW,新能源占比约40%Totalinstalledcapacity4.0billionkWRenewableenergy(wind+solar)40%42023年我国电源结构总装机约29亿kW,新能源占比约36%Totalinstalledcapacity2.9billionkWRenewable总装机约22亿kW,新能源占比约24%Totalinstalledcapacity2.2billionkWRenewable一、引言Introduction太阳能发电11%火电57%水电14%火电48%火电43%●随着新能源占比不断增高、电力电子设备投运规模不断增大，电力系统形态发生深刻变革，新型电力系统呈现出明显的高维度、强非线性、多尺度动态耦合与强不确定性特征Withtheincreasingproportionofnewenergyandscaleofpowerelectronicequipment,powersystemhasgreatchanges,becomehighdimension,strongnonlinear,multi-scaledynamiccouplingandstronguncertainty强非线性多类型非线性元件与非线性控制环节Multi-typenonlinearelementandnonlinearcontrollink强不确定性新能源发电设备与多样化负荷的强不确定性Newenergypowergenerationequipmentandloaduncertainty新能源电力系统呈现特征：高维度、强非线性、多尺度动态耦合、强不确定性TherapiddevelopmentofrenewableenergyistransformingChina'spowersupplystructure海量电力电子接入导致矩阵阶数剧增Massivepowerelectronicaccess设备动作多时间尺度与控制环节多时间尺度Multipletimescalesofmovementandcontrol高维度多尺度耦合lalaed0Vand(aws0Qoat一、引言Introductionleadstoasharpincreaseinmatrix我国电力系统发展及态势ordertx5●电力系统是最庞大、复杂的人造系统，其安全稳定关系国计民生，其可靠运行至关重要。Thepowersystemisthelargestandmostcomplexman-madesystem.Itmustbeoperatedstablyandreliablytoensurethenationaleconomyandthepeople'slivelihood.●历史的实践和发展表明，仿真技术贯穿电力系统规划-建设-运行-分析-创新的全周期过程，是系统安全、高效运行的基石。Simulationtechnologyrunsthroughthewholecycleofpowersystemincludingplanning-construction-operation-analysis-innovation.Anditisthecornerstoneofsafeandefficientoperationofpowersystem.仿真技术是电力系统规划、建设和运行的重要支撑，是认知、分析和构建新型电力系统工作的核心要素Simulationtechnologyisanimportantsupportfortheplanning,constructionandoperationofrenewableenerg...