1中国内河航运中长期低碳发展路径研究交通运输部水运科学研究院ChinaWaterborneTransportResearchInstitute2022年11月目录1.引言..............................................................................................................................................11.1国际社会大力推动航运减碳战略...........................................................................11.2中国积极开展“双碳”背景下的航运减碳工作...............................................22.中国内河航运发展现状与趋势............................................................................................62.1中国内河航运发展现状..............................................................................................62.1.1航道.......................................................................................................................62.1.2港口.......................................................................................................................82.1.3船舶....................................................................................................................102.1.4运输量................................................................................................................122.2中国内河航运发展趋势...........................................................................................152.2.1客运周转量发展趋势....................................................................................182.2.2货物周转量发展趋势....................................................................................183.中国内河船舶碳排放及预测.............................................................................................203.1碳排放控制情景设计................................................................................................203.1.1基准情景..........................................................................................................203.1.22℃-情景............................................................................................................213.1.31.5℃-情景........................................................................................................243.2减排措施情境.............................................................................................................253.2.1船舶能耗强度基本不变...............................................................................263.2.2老旧船舶淘汰，船舶的标准化..................................................................263.2.3船舶大型化.......................................................................................................273.2.4蓄电池动力船及低碳燃料应用..................................................................283.2.5岸电设施及应用.............................................................................................303.2.6营运能效提高措施.........................................................................................313.3核算方法.......................................................................................................................353.3.1CO2排放量.......................................................................................................353.3.2船舶能耗强度.................................................................................................363.4核算结果..............................