HalfoftheworldispastapeakinfossilpowerHalfoftheworld’seconomiesarealreadyatleastfiveyearspastapeakinpowergenerationfromfossilfuels,withemissionsfromthese107powersectorsfallingbyalmost20%inthelastdecade.Publisheddate:20thOctober2023Leadauthor:ChelseaBruce-LockhartOtherauthors:NicolasFulghum,DaveJones1ContentsExecutivesummaryAnalysisSupportingmaterialsAboutThisanalysisreviewstrendsinfossilpowergenerationfrom2000to2022fromEmber’sdatasetofglobalelectricitydatafrom215countries.2ExecutiveSummaryHalfoftheworldhaspassedpeakfossilpowerThereisgrowingevidencethattheworldisclosetoaglobalpeakinpowersectoremissions.01107economiespast‘peak’fossilpowerHalfoftheworld’seconomiesarealreadyatleastfiveyearspastapeakinelectricitygenerationfromfossilfuels.Emissionsfromthese107powersectorshavefallenbyalmost20%inthelastdecade.Collectively,theyrepresent38%ofglobalelectricitydemand.Economieswhichareatleastoneyearpastapeakinfossilpowerrepresent50%ofglobaldemand,settingthestageforapeakandsubsequentdeclineinglobalpowersectoremissions.0278post-peakeconomieshavedisplacedfossilpowerwithcleanenergyThevastmajority(78)oftheeconomiesalreadyfiveyearspastapeakinfossilpowerhavedisplacedfossilgenerationthroughtheexpansionofcleanpowerintheyearssince.45oftheseeconomiesachievedthisevenasoverallgenerationincreased,inmostcasesdrivenbyanincreaseinelectricitydemand.303FossilpowerpeaksarehappeningineverycorneroftheglobeTheEU,OceaniaandNorthAmericaarealreadywellintoaperiodoffossilpowerdecline,withfossilgenerationdroppingby30%,20%and15%,respectively,fromtheirregionalpeaks.FossilpowerappearstohaveplateauedinAfricaatacontinent-widelevel;asimilarflatteningistrueforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,whichhasbeenthecaseforoveradecade.TheonlyregionsyettoreachapeakareAsiaandtheMiddleEast.Buttherearesuccessstoriesintheseregionstoo:VietNamhasreduceditsfossilgenerationby16%injustthreeyearswhileJordanandtheUAEhavealmostreachedfiveyearssincetheirpeakinfossilgeneration.Earlierthisyear,Ember'sanalysisshowedthat2023maybethefirstyearwithstructurallyfallingglobalemissionsfromthepowersectorifcleanpowergrowthcontinues.However,Ember’smid-yearanalysisshowedthatadversehydroconditionsinthefirsthalfof2023meantthatpowersectoremissionsplateauedratherthanfell.Itstillremainstooclosetocallwhetherpowersectoremissionswillfallacrossthefullyearin2023;iftheydonot,thentheneweraoffallingpowersectoremissionswouldstilllikelystartin2024.Reaching‘peak’fossilgeneration,andthereforeemissions,inthepowersectorisacrucialmilestoneintheglobaltransitiontoaclean,electrifiedeconomy.Butthemostcriticalpartiswhathappensnext.Toachievetherapiddeclinesinemissionsrequiredthisdecade,thereneedstobeafastaccelerationinthedeploymentofwindandsolarpowerastheyneedtoprovideabout40%ofglobalpowerby2030,accordingtotheIEA’slatestnetzeroscenario.Triplingglobalrenewablecapacityby2030isthesinglebiggestactionthatgovernmentscantaketoputtheworldoncoursefora1.5Calignedpathway.Notmanypeoplerealisejusthowmanycountries’powersectorsarealreadywellintoaphaseoffossildecline.Formanycountries,thiswasdonesimultaneouslytorisingelectricitydemand.Suchisthesuccessofsolarandwind,thepeakiscloseeveninmanykeyemergingeconomies.Weareonthecuspofaneweraoffossildeclineintheglobalpowersector.4DaveJonesGlobalInsightsLead,Ember5AnalysisHalfoftheworldhaspassedpeakfossilpower107of215economiespassedpeakfossilgenerationat...