AnnualDecarbonizationPerspectiveCarbon-NeutralPathwaysfortheUnitedStates2022Photo:RoeblingSuspensionBridge,Cincinnati,OhioPREPAREDBYBenHaleyRyanJonesJimWilliams,UniversityofSanFranciscoGabeKwokJamilFarbesJeremyHargreavesKatiePickrellDarcieBentzAndrewWaddellEmilyLeslie,MontaraMountainEnergyPleasecitethisreportas:Haley,B.,Jones,R.A.,Williams,J.H.,Kwok,G.,Farbes,J.,Hargreaves,J.,Pickrell,K.,Bentz,D.,Waddell,A.,Leslie,E.,AnnualDecarbonizationPerspective:CarbonNeutralPathwaysfortheUnitedStates2022.EvolvedEnergyResearch,2022.ABOUTTHISREPORTThisreportinvestigatesoptionsforlong-termdeepdecarbonizationpathwaysfortheUnitedStates.Itinauguratesaseriesofannualupdatesthataimtomovepathwaysanalysisbeyondisolatedproofs-of-concepttowardsbecomingapracticalimplementationtoolforaddressingnext-stagechallengesinenergyandclimatechangemitigation.BreakthroughEnergyFoundationprovidedfinancialsupportforthiswork.Version2022-08-19AspecialthankstoDavidPaolella(BreakthroughEnergy),DanLashof(WRI),ChrisBataille(IDDRI),KateLarsen(RhodiumGroup),andElenaCrete(SDSN)fortheirfeedbackandsupport.ABOUTEVOLVEDENERGYRESEARCHEvolvedEnergyResearch(EER)isaresearchandconsultingfirmfocusedonquestionsposedbytransformationoftheenergyeconomy.Theirconsultingworkandinsight,supportedbycomplextechnicalanalysesofenergysystems,aredesignedtosupportstrategicdecision-makingforpolicymakers,stakeholders,utilities,investors,andtechnologycompanies.Copyright©2022EvolvedEnergyResearchLLC.Allrightsreserved.ADP2022|EvolvedEnergyResearchTableofContentsI.INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................9PurposeofthisReport..........................................................................................................9PolicyRelevance..................................................................................................................10II.ANALYSISFRAMEWORK........................................................................................11Scenarios.............................................................................................................................11Sensitivities..........................................................................................................................13III.MODELINGUPDATES............................................................................................14DataUpdates.......................................................................................................................14TransmissionandPipelineModeling.................................................................................16NuclearTechnologies.........................................................................................................19IndustrialDecarbonization..................................................................................................20StorageTechnologies.........................................................................................................21FuelConversionTechnologies...........................................................................................22Oil&GasProduction...........................................................................................................24ElectricityDistributionModeling......................................................