EUchallengesofreducingfossilfueluseinbuildingsTheroleofbuildinginsulationandlow-carbonheatingsystemsin2030and2050Nijs,W.Tarvydas,D.ToleikyteA.EUR30922ENThispublicationisaScienceforPolicyreportbytheJointResearchCentre(JRC),theEuropeanCommission’sscienceandknowledgeservice.Itaimstoprovideevidence-basedscientificsupporttotheEuropeanpolicymakingprocess.ThescientificoutputexpresseddoesnotimplyapolicypositionoftheEuropeanCommission.NeithertheEuropeanCommissionnoranypersonactingonbehalfoftheCommissionisresponsiblefortheusethatmightbemadeofthispublication.ForinformationonthemethodologyandqualityunderlyingthedatausedinthispublicationforwhichthesourceisneitherEurostatnorotherCommissionservices,usersshouldcontactthereferencedsource.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialonthemapsdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheEuropeanUnionconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.ContactinformationName:JoseMoyaAddress:EuropeanCommission,JointResearchCentre,P.O.Box2,NL-1755ZGPetten,TheNetherlandsEmail:jose.moya@ec.europa.euTel.:+31224565244EUScienceHubhttps://ec.europa.eu/jrcJRC127122EUR30922ENPDFISBN978-92-76-45223-2ISSN1831-9424doi:10.2760/85088Luxembourg:PublicationsOfficeoftheEuropeanUnion,2021©EuropeanUnion,2021ThereusepolicyoftheEuropeanCommissionisimplementedbytheCommissionDecision2011/833/EUof12December2011onthereuseofCommissiondocuments(OJL330,14.12.2011,p.39).Exceptotherwisenoted,thereuseofthisdocumentisauthorisedundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0International(CCBY4.0)licence(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Thismeansthatreuseisallowedprovidedappropriatecreditisgivenandanychangesareindicated.ForanyuseorreproductionofphotosorothermaterialthatisnotownedbytheEU,permissionmustbesoughtdirectlyfromthecopyrightholders.Allcontent©EuropeanUnion,2021,coverpageimagecomposition©JPC-PRODAdobeStock,2021Howtocitethisreport:NijsW.,TarvydasD.,ToleikyteA..,EUchallengesofreducingfossilfueluseinbuildings–Theroleofbuildinginsulationandlow-carbonheatingsystemsin2030and2050,EUR30922EN,PublicationsOfficeoftheEuropeanUnion,Luxembourg,2021,ISBN978-92-76-45223-2,doi:10.2760/85088,JRC127122.iContentsAbstract.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3Executivesummary..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................51Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................132Historicalfossilfueluseinbuildings..................................................................................................................................................................................142.1Historicaltotalenergyuse........................................................................