胡塞武装在红海的袭击损害了全球贸易，减缓了能源转型（英文版）VIP专享VIP免费

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2024-02-18
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Houthi attacks in the Red Sea hurt global trade

and slow the energy transition

Recent attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea have underscored the

importance of seaborne international trade, and challenged the role of the

United States in safeguarding commerce in the global commons. Maritime

choke point disruptions have worldwide consequences because the price of

oil is set globally. Simply increasing oil supply will not solve the problem of a

major disruption, such as in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been

overtly threatened by Iran. This is why the United States has a deep interest

in freedom of navigation. Maritime trade of energy is of fundamental

importance to the security of supply for energy and to the price felt by

consumers worldwide. In addition, the effects of a major disruption to freedom

of navigation would hold many damaging but indirect consequences—

including slowing progress on addressing climate change.

The danger created by Houthi attacks

The Houthi movement, or Ansar Allah, is a Shia Islamist group that seeks to

maintain control of critical territory in Yemen. It operates as a proxy group for

Iranian influence, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The

Houthi movement has ramped up attacks on merchant vessels transiting the

Red Sea since November 19, 2023, according to US Central Command.

The United States’ response to the attacks, Operation Prosperity Guardian,

concentrates naval assets and command-and-control bandwidth on the Bab

el-Mandeb Strait, wedged between the Horn of Africa and the southwestern

corner of the Arabian Peninsula. It is a key choke point for commercial traffic

transiting between the Arabian Sea and Red Sea toward the Suez Canal—

another choke point through which more oil is flowing than ever before.

Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent trade diversion, the

Suez Canal is increasingly used for Middle East-to-Europe flows of energy, as

well as Russia-to-India shipments. About 8.8 million barrels per day of oil and

oil products utilized the Suez transit in the first half of 2023, or about 12

percent of maritime oil trade.

Operation Prosperity Guardian has engaged Houthi drones, surface-to-ship

ballistic missiles, small combatant vessels, and other arms in defense of

merchant traffic and naval assets. However, the operation has thus far failed

to deter further Houthi attacks and provide assurance of safe passage to

commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea.

In order to restore deterrence, the United States and the United Kingdom are

conducting airstrikes against Houthi military infrastructure. These actions are

not only necessary to restore the safety of trade through the Suez Canal, but

to assure the principle that maritime trade cannot be disrupted by force.

The waves rule energy trade

Freedom of navigation matters deeply for preserving the security and

efficiency of global energy markets. Forty percent of maritime trade by weight

consists of oil, coal, gas, or petrochemical products, per the United Nations

Conference on Trade and Development.

Thus far, the Houthis have largely not targeted vessels engaged in energy

trade, perhaps stemming from a desire to avoid an environmentally

catastrophic oil spill along Yemeni shores, which was only narrowly avoided in

August as the oil tanker FSO Safer, abandoned off of Yemeni shores, was

successfully drained of its contents.

The Houthis are also likely to avoid drawing Arabian Gulf states deeper into

the conflict. Most Gulf economies are deeply dependent on maritime energy

trade—hydrocarbon exports are responsible for 40 percent

of Saudi and Qatari gross domestic product (GDP), and 50 percent of

Kuwait’s GDP.

Additionally, the Houthis’ Iranian patrons wish to avoid antagonizing major oil

importers China and India, or partners such as Russia. Last week, a Houthi

spokesman told a Russian news channel that Chinese and Russian cargoes

would not be targeted.

The prospect for escalation, and the potency of the threat which the Houthis

have displayed, is substantial. Major oil traders such as BP, Shell,

and Trafigura have now suspended shipments through the Red Sea

completely.

Although the United States conducts limited oil and liquefied natural gas trade

through the Suez Canal, the risk of a supply disruption in this critical choke

point matters to US economic security, as oil prices are set globally.

Moreover, the United States must ensure that its European allies retain

access to energy supplies amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Regardless, it is

the threat of escalation, in the Red Sea or other choke points such as the

Strait of Hormuz, and the broken principle of freedom of navigation that most

acutely threatens US interests.

US energy trade rules the waves?

For the United States, free maritime commerce has long been central to its

economic prosperity, from the nation’s founding as a merchant power to the

modern era, when maritime vessels account for 40 percent of US international

trade by value and 70 percent by weight.

The United States’ rising oil exports underscore how its economic

competitiveness is intertwined with the global maritime commons. The United

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HouthiattacksintheRedSeahurtglobaltradeandslowtheenergytransitionRecentattacksoncommercialshipsintheRedSeahaveunderscoredtheimportanceofseaborneinternationaltrade,andchallengedtheroleoftheUnitedStatesinsafeguardingcommerceintheglobalcommons.Maritimechokepointdisruptionshaveworldwideconsequencesbecausethepriceofoilissetglobally.Simplyincreasingoilsupplywillnotsolvetheproblemofamajordisruption,suchasintheStraitofHormuz,whichhasbeenovertlythreatenedbyIran.ThisiswhytheUnitedStateshasadeepinterestinfreedomofnavigation.Maritimetradeofenergyisoffundamentalimportancetothesecurityofsupplyforenergyandtothepricefeltbyconsumersworldwide.Inaddition,theeffectsofamajordisruptiontofreedomofnavigationwouldholdmanydamagingbutindirectconsequences—includingslowingprogressonaddressingclimatechange.ThedangercreatedbyHouthiattacksTheHouthimovement,orAnsarAllah,isaShiaIslamistgroupthatseekstomaintaincontrolofcriticalterritoryinYemen.ItoperatesasaproxygroupforIranianinfluence,especiallytheIslamicRevolutionaryGuardCorps.TheHouthimovementhasrampedupattacksonmerchantvesselstransitingtheRedSeasinceNovember19,2023,accordingtoUSCentralCommand.TheUnitedStates’responsetotheattacks,OperationProsperityGuardian,concentratesnavalassetsandcommand-and-controlbandwidthontheBabel-MandebStrait,wedgedbetweentheHornofAfricaandthesouthwesterncorneroftheArabianPeninsula.ItisakeychokepointforcommercialtraffictransitingbetweentheArabianSeaandRedSeatowardtheSuezCanal—anotherchokepointthroughwhichmoreoilisflowingthaneverbefore.DuetoRussia’sinvasionofUkraineandthesubsequenttradediversion,theSuezCanalisincreasinglyusedforMiddleEast-to-Europeflowsofenergy,aswellasRussia-to-Indiashipments.About8.8millionbarrelsperdayofoilandoilproductsutilizedtheSueztransitinthefirsthalfof2023,orabout12percentofmaritimeoiltrade.OperationProsperityGuardianhasengagedHouthidrones,surface-to-shipballisticmissiles,smallcombatantvessels,andotherarmsindefenseofmerchanttrafficandnavalassets.However,theoperationhasthusfarfailedtodeterfurtherHouthiattacksandprovideassuranceofsafepassagetocommercialvesselstransitingtheRedSea.Inordertorestoredeterrence,theUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdomareconductingairstrikesagainstHouthimilitaryinfrastructure.TheseactionsarenotonlynecessarytorestorethesafetyoftradethroughtheSuezCanal,buttoassuretheprinciplethatmaritimetradecannotbedisruptedbyforce.ThewavesruleenergytradeFreedomofnavigationmattersdeeplyforpreservingthesecurityandefficiencyofglobalenergymarkets.Fortypercentofmaritimetradebyweightconsistsofoil,coal,gas,orpetrochemicalproducts,pertheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment.Thusfar,theHouthishavelargelynottargetedvesselsengagedinenergytrade,perhapsstemmingfromadesiretoavoidanenvironmentallycatastrophicoilspillalongYemenishores,whichwasonlynarrowlyavoidedinAugustastheoiltankerFSOSafer,abandonedoffofYemenishores,wassuccessfullydrainedofitscontents.TheHouthisarealsolikelytoavoiddrawingArabianGulfstatesdeeperintotheconflict.MostGulfeconomiesaredeeplydependentonmaritimeenergytrade—hydrocarbonexportsareresponsiblefor40percentofSaudiandQatarigrossdomesticproduct(GDP),and50percentofKuwait’sGDP.Additionally,theHouthis’IranianpatronswishtoavoidantagonizingmajoroilimportersChinaandIndia,orpartnerssuchasRussia.Lastweek,aHouthispokesmantoldaRussiannewschannelthatChineseandRussiancargoeswouldnotbetargeted.Theprospectforescalation,andthepotencyofthethreatwhichtheHouthishavedisplayed,issubstantial.MajoroiltraderssuchasBP,Shell,andTrafigurahavenowsuspendedshipmentsthroughtheRedSeacompletely.AlthoughtheUnitedStatesconductslimitedoilandliquefiednaturalgastradethroughtheSuezCanal,theriskofasupplydisruptioninthiscriticalchokepointmatterstoUSeconomicsecurity,asoilpricesaresetglobally.Moreover,theUnitedStatesmustensurethatitsEuropeanalliesretainaccesstoenergysuppliesamidRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.Regardless,itisthethreatofescalation,intheRedSeaorotherchokepointssuchastheStraitofHormuz,andthebrokenprincipleoffreedomofnavigationthatmostacutelythreatensUSinterests.USenergytraderulesthewaves?FortheUnitedStates,freemaritimecommercehaslongbeencentraltoitseconomicprosperity,fromthenation’sfoundingasamerchantpowertothemodernera,whenmaritimevesselsaccountfor40percentofUSinternationaltradebyvalueand70percentbyweight.TheUnitedStates’risingoilexportsunderscorehowitseconomiccompetitivenessisintertwinedwiththeglobalmaritimecommons.TheUnitedStateshasemergedastheworld’sleadingproducerofoil,asUSexportsofoilandoilproductshaveconsistentlybeenabovetenmillionbarrelsperdaysinceearly2023,withseaborneexportsoftenaccountingformorethansevenmillionbarrelsperdayofthistrade.Globalmaritimetradeofoilisestimatedtobeapproximatelyforty-threemillionbarrelsperday,accordingtocommodityservicesfirmKpler,andtheUSexportshareofmaritimeoiltradehasexpandeddramaticallysincethecrudeoilexportbanwasliftedin2015.WhiletheRedSeaisnotamajortransitpointforUSoilexports,whichprimarilytraversetheAtlanticcrossingorPanamaCanal,itisnotintheUSnationalinterestforanywaterstobeclosedtoenergytrade.Ifenergyvesselsarerequiredtorerouteamidsecuritythreatsandafragmentedglobalcommons,shippingcostsandenergypriceswillrise,loweringworldeconomicgrowth.Secondly,althoughsomeUSenergycompanieswillbenefittemporarilyfromrisingprices,overallUSenergyandeconomicsecuritysuffers,astheUSremainsalargeoilimporter,typicallyreceivingoversixmillionbarrelsperdayduetodomesticrefineryconfigurations.Moreover,disruptionstoglobalsupplychainswouldreverberateacrossothersectorsoftheUSeconomythatrelyoninternationaltrade.ItisintheeconomicinterestoftheUnitedStatestoensurethattheglobalmaritimecommonsremainsfreefromdisruption.Threatstofreedomofnavigationarealsothreatstonet-zeroemissionsgoalsMaritimesecuritydoesnotonlyaffectfossilenergy.Iffreedomofnavigationisnolongersecured—ifmerchantvesselscanbedisruptedorevensunkbyarmedgroups—thenthecleanenergytransitionwillfacedisruption.Shippingcostsandinsurancerateswillrisesharplyamidgreateruncertainty.Additionally,theinputsforcleanenergysupplychainsoftentransversemanydifferentmaritimenodesacrosstheglobe,fromminetofactorytofinalinstallation.Forinstance,cobaltthatisminedintheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongomayberefinedinFinland,assembledintoabatteryinJapan,andshippedtoanelectricvehiclefactoryintheUnitedStates.Withmaritimesupplychainsfacinggreateruncertainty,firmswillrequiregreaterredundancyandinventorystockpiling.Thesedynamicswilllowerefficiencyandincreaseinflation.Thesnarlingofsupplychainsandresultantinflationwillalsonecessitatehigherinterestrates,allthingsbeingequal.Higherinterestrates,inturn,willpressurecapital-intensivecleanenergyprojectsbyraisingfinancingcosts.Theglobalcleanenergytransitionwillbeslowedconsiderablyiffreedomofnavigationisnolongerareasonableassumptionofseabornetrade.Insum,aworldwithoutfreedomofnavigationwouldrepresentadisasterfornotonlytheworldeconomybutalsosquashanyaspirationofreachingnet-zeroemissionsby2050.

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